R.C. Fischer

FFM

23 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Bears 23, Panthers 16

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The Panthers went toe-to-toe with the Bears here. Both teams are not overflowing with talent, but they play hard and with energy. This game could’ve gone either way, and I would say Carolina felt like the better team, but it was close…but in the end Chicago got 3-to-1 turnovers, got 4 sacks to Carolina’s none, and Chicago converted 50% of their 3rd-downs – and that’s a winning number most weeks. Chicago earned their win, for sure. I just felt like Carolina with a little less bad luck on the turnovers (like a tipped pass turned diving miracle catch INT type things) might have won this game. The Panthers were knocking on the door of TDs early and settling for field goals and it caught up to them in the end.

Two ‘good’ teams, not great teams…not Super Bowl threats, maybe not ever making the playoffs – but you don’t want to play either of these teams.

Carolina is now (3-3), and in the playoff hunt…but their schedule ahead is a gauntlet. NO, KC, TB, GB loom ahead through Week 15. IF Carolina can beat the Saints at New Orleans Week 7…it would be a statement game and a moment where we might start taking the Panthers as a wild card seriously. As it stands, it’s a tall order for a young team with a rookie head coach. We project them 7-8 wins at best.

The Bears keep rolling along, now (5-1)…lucky not to be (1-5), but luck is a good thing. It may not be luck if they keep pulling these tight games out/holding on to wins. The Bears could really make a statement with a win at L.A. versus the Rams Week 7. The schedule ahead gets tough for a few weeks then eases up to the finish. We project them to 9-10 wins, but more bias towards the 8-9 win range. If they beat the Rams this week, then the Bears are all but assured of getting a wild card in the end and are then squarely in the NFC North title discussion because they are built to beat the Packers…and the Bears have Nick Foles, so anything is possible.

Fantasy Player Notes…

Not much fresh to talk about here. No amazing revelations. I will hit on some topics of interest though…

 -- Robby Anderson (4-77-0/5) really looks good in this offense working with Teddy. Robby had an OK enough game but credit the Bears for their defense against him. D.J. Moore (5-93-0/11) having more targets/a bigger game…it’s more a function of focus, by a good defense, on Robby.

But to a greater FF point…anytime Moore outdoes Robby, there is a wing of fantasy people who are clutching to a D.J. Moore dream that thinks it means DJM is the NOW the #1 WR for Carolina, or more that he always has been. You want to buy Robby Anderson off them if they fear that…or you want to sell them D.J. Moore for a lot.

Nothing wrong with Moore, but he’s a 2nd-fiddle here, a good 2nd-fiddle…it’s Robby that will lead the way for FF with them this year, as he has been.

 -- Darnell Mooney (3-36-0/5) is a really good-looking, young WR prospect. I don’t know if he’ll become a superstar but he could be a Diontae Johnson-lite or a Calvin Ridley-like thin/wiry, athletic, great feet, great hands (Mooney has better hands than most WRs in the 2020 NFL Draft)…he runs a 4.38. He’s got a lot going for him. He’s already starting in the NFL. He’s good.

What’s not great for him is this Bears/Matt Nagy passing game that’s just as stiff/dull as it was under Mitch Trubisky, but Foles is a better ‘money’ QB. Foles is smart…he’s going to work Allen Robinson (5-53-0/9) because he should. Mooney is a 2nd-fiddle, but one of these games coming up Mooney is going to hit a homerun ball and get himself on the map – but don’t let the 4.38 speed be the story when he has his catch and run big play – he’s an all-around WR, not just a one-note WR.

 -- Cole Kmet (2-20-1/2) scored a TD. Nothing to see here. A rookie playing 30%+ of the snaps in games behind Jimmy Graham (5-34-0/8), nothing more…nothing less. He’s a very average TE talent. In a few years in a progressive offense, he might be something…but in Chicago with Nagy he’ll be a solid-ish but forgettable TE.

 -- Mike Davis (18-52-1, 2-3-0/3) is going to play this week. No fears of injury keeping him out. I’m sure he’s banged up so it’s for the best they rest Davis as much as they can between games. If Curtis Samuel (DNP) was healthy you’d see him play a lot more snaps to help relieve Davis some. Samuel is iffy for this week. Davis should be fine/heavy workload.

Trenton Cannon (3-12-0, 2-15-0/2) is nothing interesting. I’m surprised he’s still in the NFL.

Note: Carolina signed UDFA rookie Mike Warren from the Eagles…he’d be a name down the road if CMC can’t come back and if Davis and Samuel are banged up. Rodney Smith is a UDFA practice squad RB the Panthers keep inviting back as well.

CMC should be back in the Week 9-10 range, so you got a few more weeks with Davis. I get a lot of emails/questions about FF-selling off Davis (if they don’t own CMC) before CMC comes back in, and I get that.

I’m open to any deal but if you can’t make a good deal, just use Mike D. for what he was a worth, a temporary savior. Be glad for the good times. Don’t be so into being crafty at selling at just the right time…that you sell him off short and regret it because you were trying to be too slick. Sometimes you get a free ride, you take it, and then it ends…and you’re blessed that it happened. Don’t be afraid to trade him but don’t make the desire for a slick timing/trade be the driver of your emotions. Get a great value if you can, but sometimes you just sop up the remaining gravy on the plate with your biscuit and be left with an empty plate when CMC returns, but having had a satisfying meal for several weeks.

Who knows when CMC is coming back, or if he’s more hurt than any of us knows…or if CMC returns and reaggravates and here we go again?

 -- CAR DE Brian Burns (3 tackles, 3 QB hits) is getting to the QB more and more…but little sacks to show for it. These trends tend to foretell sacks to come. Six QB hits his past three games but just 1.0 sacks. He may start to rack them up soon at the pressure pace he’s going at lately.

 -- The Bears-DST is looking good, but this is nowhere near the 2018 dominating Bears-DST. It’s just very good but susceptible to good offenses…and they haven’t really played any killer offenses. They scuffled with Atlanta and Detroit and handled Tampa Bay OK. The schedule for the next several weeks is filled with tougher offenses/better QBs.

I want to see how they handle the Rams (or not) to then think about whether to keep them for the NO-TEN-MIN-BYE-GB stretch Weeks 8-12. I don’t think there’s a lot of FF points there.

Snap Counts of Interest:

58 = ARob

44 = Mooney

44 = A Miller

13 = Wims

45 = J Graham

23 = Kmet

R.C. Fischer

FFM

23 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Bucs 38, Packers 10

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

Was this that the Buccaneers are so good…and the Packers are frauds?

Was this just a lucky/blip game by Tampa Bay…and an unlucky blip by Green Bay?

A week+ ago, the Bucs scuffled and lost to the Bears and no one thought them to be killers…now, this week, they’re headed to the Super Bowl. That’s football fan life.

The Packers were going to be the #1 seed, now people are wondering if GB will be a wild card behind the Bears winning the NFC North.  

I think  the story is… The Buccaneers have a pretty salty defense, as we’ve been saying all season. Now, everyone agrees/sees. When you have a physical, daunting defense…you’re a bad matchup for finesse teams. The Packers are a finesse team…they are S-A-W-F-T. That’s why the 49ers kept embarrassing them last year. And why the Chargers whooped them last season out of nowhere. The Packers didn’t beat an out-of-division playoff team in the regular season last season except KC, and that was barely beating the Mahomes-less/Matt Moore Chiefs late game comeback. The Bucs are better built for NFL success as we go…Green Bay has the better QB vs. Tampa, but lesser everything else.  

The Packers are going to be hard-pressed to cruise to the NFC North title…because the Bears are not super talented, but they have grit. They are not S-A-W-F-T. They might punch the Pack in the mouth Week 12 on a Sunday night in their first of 2 matchups. It’s still a 10-11 win Packers team. A good team, not a great team. Likely the NFC North champs, but not assured.

Tampa Bay is the class of the NFC South. The Saints peaked a year or two ago and are slowly gliding downward. The Panthers are a year away from doing battle with TB for king of the NFC South, which will be Carolina by 2022…for a long run of dominance under Matt Rhule. The Bucs will win 10-11 games this year, and this TB win may come back to haunt Green Bay – if the Packers could force the Bucs to go to Wisconsin in January, huge advantage…and the opposite is true if they have to go to warmer Tampa. Tom Brady is not great in the cold, been that way for a few years.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Why isn’t Gronk (5-78-1/8) a TE1 from here on in?

#1) The bar to be a TE1 these days, after the top 3-4 guys…it isn’t very high. So most warm bodies can be TE1s.

#2) He’s playing 80%+ of the snaps in games…he’s out there/available for stats. He’s not rotating/playing 60% of snaps in games. He’s the best blocker and top target TE.

#3) Once O.J. Howard left things started perking up even heavier on snaps and targets. And the Bruce Arians offense that eschews the TE…it’s not Arians’ offense anymore…to no one’s surprise.

Gronk’s last 4 weeks: 3.8 rec., 51.7 yards, 0.25 TDs per game…6.7 FF PPG/10.5 PPR PPG. The #9 TE in FF since Week 3.

#4) This is the X-factor… Tom Brady is looking for him A LOT the last few weeks and it’s growing as we go…because Gronk is getting more in shape/knocking off the rust as we go (he looked terrible Weeks 1-2). When Brady drops back, if Gronk’s on a route (not blocking), I think Brady prefers him to Mike Evans, which is ludicrous but true.

Since Week 3:

15 catches, 24 targets, 207 yards, 1 TD = Gronk

15 catches, 23 targets, 175 yards, 4 TDs = Evans

With each passing week, Brady’s BFF’s numbers trend higher…as Evans sinks lower. The past two games, Evans has 3.0 rec., 25.5 yards, and 0.50 TDs per game.

Evan Engram can be as physically talented a TE as there is…but you want the TE whose QB is in love with him, and Gronk + Brady is definitely ‘sittin’ in a tree’.

 -- Speaking of evolving TEs…Robert Tonyan (3-25-0/4) is starting to make more sense to me. The 3 TD game against Atlanta got everyone’s attention but, hell, Tyler Higbee had a 3 TD game Week 2 and it meant nothing after for increased usage.

I saw a continuation of Rodgers seeking, trusting Tonyan here. The Falcons game was a joke/a party/not necessarily reality, per se. But within this blowout, early on…I saw some of the Rodgers-Tonyan connection when it mattered, in a grind/against a tough defense, just in little simple passing plays – all of which helps confirm their growing relationship.

I was a Tonyan believer, in his sleeper talent, for 2+ years…fighting everyone about Jace Sternberger being lesser than Tonyan. I wasn’t a Tonyan-Rodgers connection believer after the 3 TD game, but now I am. Late to the party, but at the party. And because he’s still not really ‘believed in’ nationally, because there are so many Dalton Schultz, Drew Sample, Mo Alie-Cox type TEs that pop up for a moment and then disappear soon after (even if good players, the targets/action isn’t there)…Tonyan feels like one of them. He might be, but I’m starting to think he’s got a brighter future than all the others like him.

The good news…he’s fairly available in a deal. No one strongly thinks they have their TE1 for the ROS in most cases. He had a weak FF-game Week 6 to help foster doubts…but note he sprained his ankle early on, played through it some, then the game was a blowout and no need for him to push it. A down game causes fear that ‘he’s not real’.

Also, helping…he’ll be no practice or limited practice and questionable all week – but I think he’ll sit out all week to heal his ankle. I saw the sprain; he’ll need 4-5 days off it to get as fully ready as he can for Sunday. His ‘questionable’ label + not really practicing so far this week + forgetting the 3 TD game from eons ago creates more ‘doubts’. This week is your chance to strike if you believe.

 -- A rather odd pattern to the Packers RB rotation, and one we’ve seen before…

I saw a lot of Jamaal Williams (4-34-0, 0-0-0/1) in the backfield early; it felt like…not getting big touches, but in for a lot of snaps. You’d think we’d see more Aaron Jones (10-15-1, 3-26-0/5) in a trouble game like this. It was likely more that the game was getting away and GB needed to pass and they like Jamaal protecting Rodgers better in known passing spots.

But to add to the furrowed brow…A.J. Dillon (5-31-0) has barely played this year, mostly taking final drive garbage/run out the clock touches. In this game, he was in the game taking carries early…looking like a chance to try and get the run game going with a more physical back. He looked good too. But it was only a blip and then he was the garbage man at the very end with the backup offense.

I think A.J. Dillon moved a step closer to starting to make Aaron Jones owners nervous. Still many more steps to go before it’s a real fear -- but Dillon is slowly popping up more and more and could be soon casting a shadow on just taking 5-10% of the touches in key parts of games.

 -- Davante Adams (6-61-0/10) was back from his injury. He looked fine. Just CB Carlton Davis (6 tackles, 4 PDs) is a top cover corner now, as we were discussing this preseason…now everyone ‘knows it’.

 -- Mike Evans (1-10-0/2) is the stud WR with issues from this game. His issue is one man too, but it’s not a cover corner…it’s Tom Brady. They have yet to look in sync and Brady prefers Gronk. If Evans wasn’t getting a bunch of 1-yard TDs he’d be the most depressing fantasy WR play of 2020.

Not sure I see the upside ahead either. It’s a Brady thing.

Chris Godwin (5-48-0/7) may suffer from the same affliction. Keelan Cole and Travis Fulgham are going to outscore Godwin for FF in 2020 on a per game basis – can you even mentally digest that? It doesn’t even seem possible. It’s a Brady thing, change has come. Jameis Winston is not walking through that door.

 -- Ronald Jones (23-112-2, 2-8-0/2)…did I not say that he was looking great after Week 1? That he was the better of the two Tampa backs? Now, that’s not even a question.

The questions have gone from “Jones or Fournette” to “Should I drop Fournette?” Leonard’s value is only as the handcuff if RoJo goes down. Fournette will get some pity work, so as not to offend him…but this is RoJo’s backfield right now. Clearly the better back in the year 2020.

RB things change like the wind, so Fournette is not totally dead…but is making funeral arrangements for his FF 2020.

 -- Equanimeous St. Brown (0-0-0/2) got active and they tried to get him integrated but he was miscommunicating with Rodgers on their couple of throws. No advancement of the ESB cause here.

 -- You know who looked good at ILB, which is a kiss of death when I like a lowly UDFA ILB, usually…Krys Barnes (10 tackles, 0.5 TFLs). I’ve been pointing him out since Week 1…just the odd pattern of his playing time (in a good way) and the tackle counts he was getting in limited time.

Barnes played 88% of the snaps here, was the starter…and looked darn good. Looked like the new starting ILB for GB, not Ty Summers. Barnes impressed me on tape here. I’m buying in that he’s going to rise from here, but not a stone cold lock.

Snap Counts of Interest:

36 = A Jones

32 = Jam Williams

10 = Dillon

54 = Gronk

23 = Brate

36 = RoJo

19 = McCoy

10 = K Vaughn

R.C. Fischer

FFM

22 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Broncos 18, Patriots 12

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

I think the spread for this game started at -10.0 before the COVID stuff reemerged and it ended up -7.0 for the Pats, and that was off by only 13 points of margin. There was a big expectation for the Patriots to smoke Denver here. Why? We still think of New England like it’s 2-15 years ago, in a sense…and everyone thinks the Broncos stink.

The Broncos aren’t bad. They have their issues, but they’re well coached and usually fighting all comers down to the wire. Denver is a last wild card spot kinda ‘good’ team.

So, if the Broncos are an OK team…then Denver going to New England and handling them might mean the Patriots are no longer that good. They are about as good as the Broncos on any given day…fringe wild card, an (8-8) team. The Cam experiment isn’t really working. Belichick’s legacy is about to be questioned. There is some peril in New England, right around the corner…especially the better and better the Buccaneers look.

The Patriots’ season likely comes down to Week 8 at Buffalo, a game I think they will get rocked in. If NE beats SF this week (a big IF), then loses to the Bills, then beats NYJ, then loses to BAL Week 10…they will be (4-5), potentially 2-3 games out of first place…and the season slipping away from them. We see the Pats finishing with 6-7 wins tops and making a QB change after a Week 10 loss to Baltimore.

Denver is (2-3)…they should be (3-2). They’ve lost to division winning/top NFL teams and beaten NYJ and NE on the road their last two games. Their schedule ahead/division is so tough it likely keeps them out of the playoff picture. Until Drew Lock is gone, this team is held back on its own. We see 5-6 wins this season, that low only because all they play is playoff-level/quality teams for most of the rest of the season.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The first thing to know about this game…the sudden rise of rookie Albert Okwuegbunam (2-45-0/6). The former college teammate of Drew Lock shined in his ‘debut’ of sorts. Lock went at him with targets, early and often.

Albert O. caught two of six targets, for a decent/muted FF week…but it’s what the other four targets were that changes the thinking.

First off, realize that Lock was going at Albert right away. Not in a hurry up, not because nothing else was there…Albert ran specific/nice routes you design for a speedy TE and Lock went after it – which was brilliant of the coaching staff to try to catch the Pats off guard, because Albert O. has barely played this season.

The first missed target (1st series)…27-yard wheel route bomb to the end zone that was underthrown/knocked away by the defender.

The second missed target, 2nd series, another 27-yard bomb that was well covered and knocked away.

The third missed target, 3rd series, after two 10-15+ yard passes to AO, a 7-yard high point throw in the back of the end zone to a well-covered AO on a ball put where only Okwuegbunam could catch it but he leaped up and got his fingertips/hands on it but he couldn’t get two hands on it.

The fourth missed target, late 3rd-quarter, a timing pass to the sideline in the end zone from 6 yards out… Okwuegbunam makes the nice high point/leaping tight window catch…but while falling down, the defender swung his hand right onto the ball and perfectly knocked it out, and as Okwuegbunam crashed to the ground the ball was stripped out. No catch/TD.

Some fantasy sites mocked Okwuegbunam for butchering two catches and labeling him as ‘can’t catch’.

1) They were tough catches/not drops at all. Not even close.

2) The key is…the two almost-catches and the two uncatchables…all TD shots. You might be starting TEs for fantasy this week that haven’t had four end zone shots this season total. Okwuegbunam got 4 shots in his first three quarters of real NFL action.

If Noah Fant is out…I’m hot for Okwuegbunam as a sleeper this week.

It will be cold and snowing…making Okwuegbunam the perfect ‘go get it’ matchup throw or neat bubble screen weapon on a safer/shorter pass in the snow and let a 260+ man with 4.49 speed try and run through people.

The last time the current Broncos O-C was calling plays for a speedy TE…it was Evan Engram who was a top 3 FF TE in 2019 with Pat Shurmur until EE got hurt and left the season. I saw a lot of plays/work with Okwuegbunam like Engram/2019 this game.

If Noah Fant can play…then 80% of all this enthusiasm gets transferred to Fant.

 -- I’m in on Tim Patrick (4-101-0/8) as a solid WR3 with upside. He is the Broncos store brand Courtland Sutton while Sutton is out, and it works better with Lock than Rypien. This week in the snow v. KC is probably not a great spot but going forward he’s still of interest to me when people start giving up on him.

 -- I want to get more excited about Fant/Okwuegbunam-Patrick but Drew Lock (10-24 for 189 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs) is failing fast and cannot support many weapons for FF results.

Lock has played 7 games fully in his NFL career. He has thrown for less than 220 yards in six of them.

3 TDs/3 INTs in his last 6 games. He is a better-looking version of Daniel Jones…meaning failure is coming. Denver should try and trade for Ryan Fitzpatrick to save their season.

Lock throws a lot of deep passes up for grabs to his taller targets out of fear/lack of ability to read defenses – which is good for Tim Patrick and the speedy TEs.

 -- And then there’s the mess that is Cam Newton (17-25 for 157 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs, 10-76-1). 2 TDs/4 INTs for the season. 11 TDs/14 INTs in his last 12 NFL games. Three games under 170 yards passing out of 4 games played this season.

Cam is becoming ‘Bad Cam’, and all the Patriots’ WRs are dead because of it. None are worth anything right now.

Damiere Byrd (3-38-0/4) is their best WR now.

James White (4-8-0, 8-65-0/9) is their best FF receiver, in general, as Cam can only complete RB swing passes anymore. White’s last two games (he missed a few games prior with a death in the family): 7.5 rec., 51.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game.

 -- Damien Harris (6-19-0, 1-14-0/1) looks fabulous…but he’s going nowhere for FF because James White takes all the passes and Cam Newton all the short yardage/goal line work. Harris will put up Sony Michel numbers at best in this offense…minus the TDs. Harris is for the future, not the now.

 -- Congrats to Phillip Lindsay (23-101-0), a 100+ yard rushing day. Lindsay is a talent that Denver should just embrace, but never fully does. He’s the heart and soul of the team.

He’s also an excellent receiver, which is why it makes so much sense he has 1 target in 59 snaps played this season.

I assume when the great Melvin Gordon returns, it’s back to a split for Lindsay.

 -- Pats rookie SAF Kyle Dugger (5 tackles) is playing more and more snaps, but only about 40% of the snaps – and in the limited snaps he’s making tackles. 4.0 total tackles the last 4 games in 40% of the time played. If you put him up to 100% of the snaps/as a starter…he’d be tracking 9-10 tackles a game at his pace. He’s not ready for IDP starting yet…just one to watch, waiting for him to start.

 -- I want to get behind a very stout Denver-DST, but their schedule won’t let me. Here’s the QBs they will face through Week 16: Mahomes, Herbert, Ryan, Carr, Tua, Brees, Mahomes, Teddy, Josh Allen, Herbert.

One start-able week (Tua).

Snap Counts of Intertest:

35 = Izzo

24 = Asiasi

31 = J White

18 = Burkhead

12 = Dam Harris

40 = Lindsay

25 = Freeman

39 = Butt

29 = Vannett

24 = Okwuegbunam

R.C. Fischer

FFM

22 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Steelers 38, Browns 7

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

Remember back to a time and place far, far away when the Browns were the apple of analyst’s eye and had finally turned the organizational ship around and were going to be a playoff team and Baker Mayfield had been ‘fixed’ and his wide receivers were now ‘fixed’ too? Ahh, a week ago…those were the good old days.

Exactly one week later, every football analyst has turned a 180 on the Browns…and Baker Mayfield being benched is a discussion, and where he should be traded to is a neat radio show topic.

That complete change of direction/analysis happened all in one week?

Football analysts are as bad as Fantasy GMs…whatever happened last week is the future for forever…or at least until next week.

The Browns are never going to go forward until they: (a) get rid of OBJ, (b) and get rid of Jarvis Landry at the same time as OBJ, and (c) either change the offense to fit Baker’s specific skill set or just trade him…and we’ll get into Baker in a bit.

As far as this game goes…it was as bad as the score indicated. It was over before it started. I opined the prior week that the Browns had confidence currently, a bounce in their step after that Dallas game – but that when they started losing that they’d sink right back into their pouty hole and roll over and lose and WR chaos would reappear. Well, ta da. It took a week…actually it took about 5 minutes into this game before the slumped shoulders and defeated faces appeared on the Browns side of the field.

The schedule begs the Browns to win 9 games, but you know they won’t. If they lose this week at Cincy, and I think they very well could, then this season is going to go flushing down the drain. We see the Browns at 7-8 wins right now at season’s end.

The Steelers are undefeated, but they haven’t really played anyone either. Their first tests are this week at TEN followed by at BAL. The schedule is going to help a good-not-great Steelers team to get to 11-12 wins and a probable top wild card unless the beat the Ravens Week 8…then the Steelers are in a driver’s seat for a 12 win season and a possible division title. We’re thinking 11-12 wins and the #1 wild card.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I mean, you can’t write a Steelers Game Report without talking about his majesty…Sir Chase Claypool (4-74-0/4, 2-7-1/4). Yeah, I went ahead and knighted him…it was time…it was a secret ceremony.

The only CC takeaway here was – Ben only had to complete 14 passes in this win…and just 4 to Claypool, but two of those 4 had Claypool diving near the end zone for potential scores…two TDs within reach but just short (story of my 2020 Week 7). CC did get his TD run to push a solid fantasy week.

Imagine the frenzy of Claypool scored 3 TDs here after the 4 TDs the week before.

If you didn’t think NFL coaches were dumb enough…the Browns didn’t have Denzel Ward shadow Claypool all the time, and thus Claypool was burning Terrence Mitchell. Good job scouting, Browns’ staff! It must still be 2018, when JuJu Smith-Schuster (2-6-0/4) was still ‘a thing’ people thought about…because I saw Ward on JuJu more than a few times. Better keep that great JuJu weapon contained.

JuJu hasn’t been relevant since Antonio Brown left and took all the double teams to open up the field for JuJu with him. I wonder what stupid team is going to pay for JuJu in free agency like he’s a great NFL WR. Enjoy the Jets, JuJu!!

What’s going to happen to Claypool when Diontae comes back this week? The question is…what’s going to happen to Diontae when he returns, and Claypool is now the team’s star? I don’t know, we’ll see. No way to know…there’s no precedent. Eventually, it will be great for Diontae (as CC takes attention in coverage off Diontae)...but whether that starts this week, I don’t know. You don’t know either. We’ll find out together.

James Washington (4-68-1/7) is going to be a distant memory in 2020. Not his fault, just Diontae and Claypool are too good.

 -- Speaking of things cool in 2018, ‘remember when…’ on Baker Mayfield (10-18 for 119 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs)?

Remember when Baker set the rookie passing TD record in 2018, took the league, the Browns by storm? He did that with a revolving door of WRs. He had overrated Jarvis Landry, nothing-but-trouble Antonio Callaway, and Breshad Perriman. He made Callaway relevant as a rookie and he made Perriman a rich free agent.

2018 was so long ago.

Now, Baker looks like a fool playing QB.

I don’t know if it is the ever-changing offensive philosophies and/or head coaches and/or OBJ spoiling everything and/or all the commercials – but Baker is a shell of himself. He’s stuck in Cleveland purgatory…and if he is moved or leaves in free agency – who is building an offense around him? Baker’s star has fallen all the way to earth and penetrated the surface and buried itself deep in the Earth’s inner crust.

Sad.

This is why I’m a little fearful of what the Bengals organization is going to DO TO Joe Burrow. If Baker can go from taking the league by storm to stooge two years later…it could happen to Burrow, potentially.

How did Ohio and New York football get so bad at having  football teams?

*Also…Case Keenum (5-10 for 46 yards, 0 TD/0 INTs) is not the answer for CLE, because the problem is the WRs and organization more than the QB.

 -- You know Ben Roethlisberger (14-22 for 162 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) hasn’t thrown for over 240 yards in a game in his last 3 games, right? Just checking.

Also, not over 240 in four of his 5 games this season…you knew that, right? Seems a little weird…too tiny. I thought he had these great WRs?

11 TDs/1 INT and not forcing everything…the new Big Ben. However, he hasn’t had to force much because they’ve led in games or not played a powerhouse opponent yet. Let’s see if TEN and BAL the next two weeks draws him out of his shell…and what happens when all the Steelers’ WRs are healthy/playing with Claypool now an established god.

 -- Since Week 3, Austin Hooper (5-52-0/6) is the #8 TE scorer PPG in PPR.

Five catches in each of his last 3 games, averaging 5.0 rec., 47.7 yards, 0.33 TDs per game in that span. That’s nice work for the TE market today.

David Njoku (1-7-0/3) will be traded soon. He’s a bad TE like an Eric Ebron…good for some receiving from time-to-time but drops a lot of passes too and can’t/won’t block. So only a team that’s delusional/using mainstream scouting from 2-3 years ago would make this move…and it has to be a playoff contender.

Could be Washington as the most obvious. Green Bay, maybe.

 -- PIT ILB Devin Bush is done for 2020. In his place, UDFA Robert Spillane (6 tackles, 1 TFL) took over and played his heart out.

Spillane is a UDFA who has been cut, picked back up, cut, etc. Up and down he goes as a special teamer and backup afterthought. Well, he got his chance here and looked good. The guy plays a hundred miles and hour. He’s a great hitter/tackler. He’s going to have IDP value because he’s high effort and playing for a career and will get run at now…especially by the Titans.

I like Spillane as an ILB, but he’s the kinda guy I like but the NFL turns up their nose at. We’ll see if that happens here. The Steelers don’t have many other options unless they go trade for someone, which I would guess they would…this is a Super Bowl threat team, and a UDFA middle linebacker is not a good problem to have going against the big boys.

Matchmaking…

Nick Vigil from the Chargers in a trade? They’d know Vigil from his time in Cincy, and he’s buried in L.A.

Jarrad Davis from Detroit, a free agent to-be who has a name people liked at one-time.

Snap Counts of Interest:

51 = Claypool

43 = J Washington

42 = JuJu

40 = Hooper

23 = Njoku

21 = H Bryant

30 = Hunt

17 = D’Ernest

07 = Hilliard

R.C. Fischer

FFM

22 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Titans 42, Texans 36

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

I have no idea if the Titans are lucky or good, but they are (5-0) …and very lucky to not be (1-4). The collective record of their opponents so far…(9-20). They’ve beaten three (1-5) teams by 3, 1, and in OT.

How good are the Titans, really?

What to say about this game? It was a mess. Neither team could stop each other, and Tennessee the better team but they gave a couple turnovers to Houston to keep them propped up. Houston seemed to be on their way to a victory until Tennessee drove down and Ryan Tannehill hit a TD pass with 0:07 left to tie it. The Titans got the ball first in OT and just rammed right down Houston’s throats and game over.

No one was a real ‘winner’ here except fantasy owners.

If Tennessee puts away the Steelers this week, then they should easily win the AFC South and probably win 10-12 games this year. If the Titans lose, especially if they get smashed…it means they’ve been propped up, somewhat by their schedule and a 9-10 win season is coming and a probable AFC South title.

This was Houston’s last real stand. If they had won this game, they would’ve drawn to two wins behind Tennessee with 11 weeks left. Plenty of time, but they butchered it and effectively ended their season. Romeo Crennel is gonna be Romeo Crennel. Houston has a tougher schedule remaining and will likely finish with 4-5 wins. They should start selling everything off, but they won’t because NFL teams rarely do anything that makes sense, nor engage in trades out of fear of it not being a good trade.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I’ve spent the last 24-48 hours working with people on what to do with David Johnson (19-57-1, 1-12-0/1). DJ sent his owners over the edge last week when he was sniffing a 2-3-4 TD day but constantly got stuffed near the goal line and ended up with just one TD.

Mostly, the past 24 hours, I’ve been helping discuss his trade away off FF-teams down to their last breath in Dynasty. Trying to take trade value advantage of the TD he scored this game and try to get over on the teams on Week 7 RBs on a BYE  issues.

FF-teams on the edge of ‘folding’ on 2020, but trying to win this week to stay alive, but also looking at futuristic moves…we’ve been moving DJ this week for ‘things’ if the deal is right/nice.

Why?

DJ is an RB2, that’s all. He’s not getting any better because his O-Line is not going to allow it. The RBs working behind the worst O-Line ratings are all dying – Ezekiel Elliott, James Robinson, Le’Veon Bell (NYJ), Miles Sanders, and worst among them Devin Singletary…and including David Johnson. Offensive lines typically do not get magically better as the season wears on unless a stud OL or two is returning from an injury that held them out for weeks and hurt the O-Line for weeks but now is returning to shore things up. It is what it is with these RBs…painful to watch them try to find space to run.

You can only hope DJ falls into the end zone to pump his FF number, and he is getting good chances and will be an RB2 over time because of it…but he won’t be a breakout performer ahead (unless traded before the deadline). The Houston O-Line is rotten, as is the coaching, and they aren’t throwing him the ball (which is absolute insanity). He is what he has been the first 6 weeks…60-80 yards rushing, 1-2 catches, and pray for a 1-yard TD plunge (that has 75% odds of being stuffed).

The last three weeks in PPR…David Johnson scoring vs. J.D. McKissic:

Week 4 = 11.2 to 10.6 DJ

Week 5 = 12.3 to 10.1 DJ

Week 6 = 14.4 to 13.9 McKissic

If you’ve been sitting on McKissic in PPR…why not deal DJ and use McKissic if you can get a nice return for DJ? Next week, Week 8…DJ on a BYE…you’re going to have to. Maybe McKissic can fall into the end zone this week?

David Johnson is not dead by any means. In fact, when he hits his Week 8 bye…some of you in a good place should look to buy him cheap. He’s going to be stable/fine. He might be a back-end RB1 in total pts this year on volume and health/playing all the games.

The DJ of 2016…the old DJ that flashed for a moment Week 1 of 2020…he has nowhere to run and doesn’t exist anymore. He’s still good. Hopefully he gets on a run of TDs like I think he might. Maybe they wake up and start throwing to him. I have hopes…but I highly doubt their reality based on Weeks 1-6.

He’s not a must-hold…or must-sell or must-anything. Just use as needed. Give up the fairy tale ending on him. Hope he goes off this week to sell hot. He’s just a useful RB2 with TD upside week-to-week.

And Duke Johnson sucks out loud, so DJ will not be pressured out of a role – actually DJ is playing terrific NFL ball. Blocking his arse off and making yards out of nothing to keep drives alive. He’s doing great at all stuff that does not matter for FF.

 -- Maybe Jeremy McNichols (5-51-0, 2-11-0/3) will be better than David Johnson ahead?

Everyone loves the 2nd back on a team who has a decent game and gets antennae raised. I know analytics people love McNichols…I used to too. If McNichols was shoved into a starting role, he’d do just fine. I’d chase him if he were starting…like a Mike Davis story. But note two things about this blip week…

1) The Texans gave up a bajillion yards rushing. McNichols saw a few touches and got his too. McNichols didn’t ‘emerge’. He was just on the field against a charity run defense.

2) When Darrynton Evans returns…he would likely be the #2 back over McNichols. Evans is on short term I.R. getting ready to return, or it might have been Evans drawing all this attention.

So, be careful thinking McNichols is the Henry cuff. He is until Evans returns.

 -- How about Anthony Firkser (8-113-1/9)…TE superstar!!?? Firkser had more catches, yards, and TDs then Evan Engram has tallied all season, I think.

Jonnu Smith got hurt and that helped push Firkser, but he was getting touches before Jonnu went down. Firkser has 2-4-0-3-8 for catches in games this season. He is not sitting around idle.

Firkser is a play IF Jonnu is out. Not a great/obvious one, but a play

I think Jonnu is going to play to throw cold water on this upstart hope for Week 7.

 -- Ryan Tannehill (30-41 for 364 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT) is arguably top 3 for the NFL league MVP right now. He’s been a top 5 Fantasy QB over his last 16 games, as I’ve pointed out since Week 1. I can only hope you grabbed him as your QB2, if needed, and if Justin Herbert wasn’t your QB2 grab (in redraft) weeks ago.

Tannehill keeps working over and over and over and yet he rarely starts in most 12-team leagues and rarely ranked in the top 12 QBs by analysts in a given week.

He’s a top 10 QB play every week for the ROS…just no one can get used to it or give into it. Because of that, you can still trade for him reasonably.

 -- Deshaun Watson (28-37 for 335 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) played his best game of 2020, which makes me fear the Titans defense going forward.

Without many choices out there at DST, in a year where people are hoarding them…the Titans are something on schedule ahead.

Week 8 = at CIN, bad O-Line, lots of sacks.

Week 9 = Foles/weak Bears offense

Week 10 = Rivers

Week 11 = Lamar (no good)

Week 12 = Rivers again

Week 13 = Baker

It’s not nothing. But I don’t know if the Titans have a good enough all-around defense to hold up/take advantage. Just facing all the NFC East offenses with your DSTs is better.

 -- Darren Fells (6-85-1/7) had a big day, as he’s done twice with Jordan Akins out. I can only wonder how much of that was Akins’ gold…stripped away by an injury/concussion.

If Akins isn’t back this week, it’s TE1 Fells time again.

 -- Brandin Cooks (9-68-1/9) was a nobody with Bill O’Brien, but since O’Brien got fired, in two games, Cooks is averaging 8.5 catches, 114.5 yards, and 1.0 TDs per game…the hottest WR in fantasy almost.

I didn’t think it would hold up after Week 5, but it did. It might be a bit of a favorable schedule pushing it -- but note that Weeks 11-15 are unfavorable to the Houston WRs/QB, so if Cooks is just taking advantage of a moment…that moment will be over Week 11 or prior, potentially.

But I wouldn’t bet against Cooks for Week 7…I wouldn’t bet against until he shows you otherwise.

 -- Three IDPs to note here…

1) TEN DT Jeffrey Simmons (6 tackles,1 sack) has put up some pretty righteous numbers the past two games…

5.5 total tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1.0 TFLs, 2.5 QB hits per game.

2) HOU LB Tyrell Adams (8 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PDs) is the new starter for gone-for-the-year Benardrick McKinney and he has averaged 10.0 total tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 1.0 PDs per game in his two games as a starter.

He looked OK…OK enough to get to the ball and hit people. Now, he was out of position a lot and the Titans exposed and spanked him/the Texans for a massive rushing game -- but that’s good for his IDP. We want the LB on a team where everyone is running it down their throats.

3) HOU DT P.J. Hall (7 tackles, 1 QB hits) has had 7 total tackles in a game in two of his last 3 games…which is a lot for a DT. I don’t see anything magical happening besides he’s playing his heart out and good things are happening (and everyone wants to run all over Houston). So, maybe this pace keeps up/going?

Snap Counts of Interest:

45 = D Henry

29 = McNichols

49 = Swaim

41 = Firkser

29 = Jonnu

56 = David Johnson

19 = Duke Johnson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

21 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Giants 20, Football Team 19

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

This was a chore to watch.

How, in 2020, are these two QBs starting on purpose for NFL teams?

Daniel Jones has been exposed as even more of a fraud since Saquon Barkley went out…Allen is so bad he makes Kyle Allen look ‘not so bad’. In reality, these are bad QBs and watching them play each other was embarrassing…an offense to my football sensibilities.

The only way to recap this game is – both QBs suck. Their O-Lines are terrible. They have no run games, and their QBs cannot complete the most basic of passes consistently…but both teams have promising, decent defenses. They played a game, and the one team that got a late strip sack fumble scoop-and-score won the game after the other failed to convert a two pointer at the buzzer.

The Football Team scored late and decided to go for two and the win versus taking a tie. We’re seeing a lot of teams fail in these gutsy ‘go for two’ situations – to me, it shows the utter lack of coaching sense and prowess in the NFL. Not that it was a bad decision – I’d go for a win right in front of me 100 times out of 100. I’m sick of teams playing to tie, kicking short field goals all game (and worse when they do it facing Mahomes or Rodgers or Wilson, etc.), punting for field position instead of going for it on 4th & 1s at midfield.

Football players are so coached, so conditioned to risk aversion their entire football lives that they don’t feel comfortable going for two in a tight spot. If they did go for things all the time, they’d have the mental reps/advantage over the unpracticed/un-used to it defenses. Instead, the unpracticed/inexperienced in these situations offense goes for two and chokes a lot.

Practicing a ‘go for two play’ the final two minutes of your Friday practices is not ‘prep’ enough for the real battle.

NFL teams ‘going for two’ are like a person who has never spoken in public, and knows that they are introverts, but then suddenly they decide to give a speech in front of 50,000-to-16M people watching them next week and their prep in the week going into the big speech is watching a quick YouTube video on ‘Public Speaking’ on Friday night.

Never-ending books could be written on how not to conduct business just by studying and reporting on how poorly NFL teams run and coached.

So, Washington went for two…and failed. Big shock.

The Giants now play for first place against the Eagles Thursday. Washington plays for first place vs. Dallas Sunday. If either NYG or WSH had a decent QB…they could win this division. Washington in more of a position to because Kyle Allen is the 2nd-best QB in the NFC East now. Daniel Jones is the worst QB in the NFL or CFL right now. Those Manning’s sure know football, right? Let’s listen to them more on Daniel Jones and Adam Gase. Peyton Manning will be an NFL analyst and a GM in no time, mark my words.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Just to further the QB discussion…

Both these QBs are so bad it’s killing their WRs/TEs for Fantasy. You have to run from Daniel Jones/Kyle Allen and run to where offense is, hidden preferably to buy in cheap today (which is LAC and BUF primarily).

1) You trade Darius Slayton (3-41-1/4) off this TD event. Two good games in a row – must sell hot now. Not his issue, it’s the worry that Dan Demise will not throw 10 TD passes this year the rest of the way.

2) Evan Engram (2-30-0/3) cannot be trusted. He’s awesome, but Jones + Jason Garrett = a joke. Engram opened this game up with a sweet 21-yard pass play. He had one more touch the rest of 43 plays for NYG. He’s their best player and they barely try and use him now.

He’s a TE flyer that you hope you find the game they finally decide to use him or he just breaks a big play off one of his two catches…a good situation like this week vs. a bad-v-TE defense of Philly, for the division lead. I wish I could count on it…if Jason Garrett wasn’t such a dolt.

3) Terry McLaurin (7-74-0/12), like Slayton, is a fine player…but he's a slave to the QB and Allen is a short passer/dumper not a medium/deep specialist. McLaurin’s upside is limited to this type of game.

4) Steve Sims would be an interesting fit, but I don’t know if Sims is now benched, or was just hurt and held back or what is going on.

 -- The DSTs in this game were/are the most interesting things…because they have decent defenses BUT they also play the other awful NFC East teams a lot ahead – and that’s of supreme FF-interest.

The problem with trying to sit on both together is their schedules don’t mesh well. They are both not bad/looks good Weeks 7-12 but then both their schedules turn dark (out of division) Weeks 13-16.

The Giants have the better all-around defense, but worse offense to support it.

Washington has a good fantasy defense because they get a lot of pressure/sacks for upside scoring, but they also give up big plays and have downside risk.

Pick your poison.

I like Washington by a hair the next six weeks except the Week 8 BYE. Like, not love. You got a six-week window with them facing…Dalton, BYE, Dan Jones, Stafford, Burrow, Dalton.

 -- The one thing that’s been working for weeks on the Washington offense, is a player no one believes in, but should for PPR…J.D. McKissic (8-41-0, 6-43-0/6).

Think about it…if Washington is still in this thing/FNC East, a win away, they are going with their best players/options – and McKissic is Washington’s best back, mainly because he’s so great in the Kyle Allen short passing game. He’s their low rent Christian McCaffrey. He’s like a slot WR playing RB.

PPR points the past three weeks, Gibson v. McKissic:

Week 4 = 22.8 to 10.6 Gibson

Week 5 = 10.9 to 10.1 McKissic

Week 6 = 14.4 to 9.5 McKissic

PPR points the past three weeks, James Robinson v. McKissic:

Week 4 = 14.7 to 10.6 JRob

Week 5 = 11.0 to 10.9 JRob

Week 6 = 15.3 to 14.4 JRob

Not much difference, no?

You could do worse than McKissic as a PPR fill-in during BYE weeks, and he has upside. He’s really very good.

 -- Two Washington defenders to note that I’m pretty much ready to fold on for IDP, because I’m tired of waiting/I should just trust what the coaching staffs are saying…

1) Troy Apke went to the bench this week for Deshazor Everett (6 tackles). Apke played special teams. He’s likely dead now.

2) I was excited to see Cole Holcomb (6 tackles, 1.0 TFLs) starting, but that was for one play…then 5-6 plays later back in. Mostly he was rotating in and out. He looked fine but he’s not a desired piece for Washington. I loosely hold him in deep roster IDPs. It may pay off someday, but probably not. He has all the signs of a defender I like that the NFL coaches do not, at linebacker.

Snap Counts of Interest:

35 = Devonta

04 = Gallman

40 = Slayton

36 = Austin Mack

30 = Tate

39 = McKissic

27 = Gibson

08 = Barber

48 = Bostic

34 = Pierre-Louis

31 = Holcomb

R.C. Fischer

FFM

21 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Lions 34, Jaguars 16

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

This was an ugly game…another game where the Lions got out of the gates quickly (up 14-3 early 2nd-half, then up 24-3 mid-3rd-quarter) and then started playing sloppy but the Jags played sloppier in response, every time the Lions gave them an opening the Jags failed. How Doug Marrone is still employed at this point is a total mystery, but I believe they too are trying to lose…so, like the Jets, it’s best to keep the head coach that gives you the best chance of losing every game.

The Jags are not worse than the Jets, and the Jags play hard, and ineffectively, so they will probably stumble into 3-4-5 wins this year. There’s no way they’ll ‘knock off’ the Jets for that #1 pick.

Speaking of everyone tanking for Trevor Lawrence…I can already feel this football sentiment rising, and it’s always wrong – that Lawrence is the universal, unquestioned best QB prospect in generations and everyone needs to tank for Trevor.

Last time we saw this -- the football intelligentsia boasted it was time to ‘Tank for Tua’! And they were ultimately wrong…he’ll be lucky to be the 3rd-best QB from the 2020 class.

They also called Sam Darnold and Jameis Winston ‘generational’. Their last real golden boy they love to point to is Andrew Luck, but they conveniently forget two QBs taken in the 3rd-round of that draft ended up better (Russell Wilson, Nick Foles). But now trust them that they ‘know’ Trevor Lawrence is the greatest.

I saw an article where the analyst called Lawrence the best QB prospect he’s seen in decades. Has he turned on the TV and watched a Chargers’ game this year? Or what about an LSU game last year? The media makes up a narrative and they all run 100% in lockstep with it. The media, as witnessed by the current political environment, is getting worse not better with time. Football media is as bad/worse than the political news media. I thank God for that, so I can stay in business…try as they may to keep me buried.

The Lions passed on Herbert-Tua to take Jeff Okudah in one of the contenders for stupidest draft moves of 2020. Regardless of that dumb move, the Lions are now (2-3). All their losses to quality teams. They are (2-3) but could be (3-2/4-1) with any luck. We say that a lot about the Lions under Matt Patricia…that they coulda been ____ better record. At some point it’s not luck…it’s who they are.

With a win this week, Detroit would be (3-3) and firmly in the playoff hunt with a decent schedule ahead. I’ll just blindly bet against Matt Patricia from here…and I bet I win more than I lose.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I was interested to see D’Andre Swift’s (14-116-2, 3-7-0/4) tape here. Out of nowhere, Swift popped from his star fading fast to suddenly he’s the future of the Lions again. A lot can happen in one week…just ask Darrell Henderson.

Mr. Swift, you are no Darrell Henderson.

I’m always unimpressed with what I see from Swift on his NFL tape. A slow to shift, heavy-footed runner who has a lot of David Montgomery in him. Swift is a better version of Montgomery, but the issue remains that neither is a real bell cow back. Too slow, too much hopping/changing directions for the sake of doing it, too much slowing down when they try to hop around/change directions…they’re always trying to cut things back away from contact and it worked in college and with a big NFL hole to gather steam in and make the cut full speed, but in NFL congestion they cannot stop and turn and get away from NFL defenders…they have college agility not pro agility.

D’Andre Swift is a little better version of Theo Riddick…and Riddick was a solid/good player for Detroit for years. It’s not a diss…but it is when you put Swift on a pedestal, because all of football did coming into the draft…but let me redirect you to my opening discussion of the QBs ‘THEY’ love for how much I trust what THEY see.

Swift will get a push now because of this good game, but really this was a 116-yard rushing game bolstered by a play that happens once a year, if that – Swift ran off tackle and there was a completely wide open hole and also no one there at linebacker or safety after Swift went through it. Swift ran 30+ yards without anyone 2-3 yards near him. But because he has Theo Riddick speed, he was easily caught up to from behind and held to a 54-yard run.

I don’t see anything special with Swift, but I’m sure he’s going to see 10+ carries and 3+ targets this week working in-and-out with aging-quickly Adrian Pederson (15-40-1). AP is fading, so Swift has a chance…Kerryon Johnson (4-9-0, 1-11-0/2), former football analyst's future great, may have a shot at touches soon too…if they cut/dump AP in another loss or two.

 -- Speaking of unimpressive RBs…James Robinson (12-29-0, 4-42-1/4) is slowly fading into the circle of mediocre RB2 hell. Robinson is a solid NFL RB prospect, but plays behind a terrible O-Line…the same one that killed Leonard Fournette.

Just 1.8 ‘yards before contact’ per attempt spacing for JRob this season, which is below the 2.0+ you want to see – he’s falling down with the Zeke’s and DJ’s of poor blocking numbers to work with.

But I know this – the Jags are committed to JRob no matter what. They’ve shown him more respect than Detroit has Swift. So, I like JRob over Swift, but don’t love either.

 -- Gardner Minshew (25-44 for 243 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 3-14-1) didn’t play his best game but I must note…two good WRs dropped two deep passes that were tough catches, but catchable and left 90+ yards on the table lost for Minshew in this game…which would’ve kept Minshew’s 300+ yards passing roll going this season.

Minshew is a good, scrappy QB on a bad team that cannot run the ball and is often losing so it needs to pass a lot…that’s good for FF production. Minshew is like the new Ryan Fitzpatrick of 2-3-4 years ago, for FF. Bad team…scrappy…will run for yards/scores…loses but is always throwing for numbers anyway.

 -- Speaking of the Jags’ WRs, and those two key drops…

1) Keelan Cole (6-143-0/9) is so good, so disrespected by the NFL, the fans, his own team and QB. Cole should be a respected NFL starter getting 6-8+ targets every game, but he’s usually getting ignored most of the game until the hurry-up offense down 2-3 scores with 4 minutes left in the game. Not here, he wasn’t…he was more respected this game, but not radically so…

Just note with Cole’s numbers here that he dropped a floated hail mary throw of about 40 yards…it was underthrown but Cole came back to it and went to the ground to grab but dropped it…or Cole might have had 180+ yards this game. Also, Cole was open for a 15+ yard easy TD toss but got held and didn’t get to the ball…penalty not called. Cole was sniffing towards 200 yards and a TD, but it was a pretty quiet ‘big game’…it wasn’t like Minshew discovered Cole was ‘his guy’ now.

2) Laviska Shenault (3-10-0/7) was Minshew’s guy leading up to this, until he wasn’t here. Shenault is OK/good not great and was mostly a non-factor here.

3) D.J. Chark (7-45-0/14)…good news, bad news.

The ‘good news’ – Chark got the ‘my guy’ treatment from Minshew. I’ve started to see that shift for the past few weeks. If Minshew is going to put up a lot of garbage stats…DJC will be a beneficiary.

The ‘bad news’ – Chark looks like he’s 75% of himself. The burst/fast cuts/breaks weren’t there this game. He’s been dealing with an ankle/leg injury. He may need more time to heal. Hopefully, he sits out Wednesday practice and is limited the rest of the week…and gets closer to 100%.

Chark caught a 50+ yard deep ball pass, a sweet play, but had the ball torn from him as he fell to the ground and ruled not a catch. Chark also had two end zone shots his way on designed plays that didn’t work. There is an effort to get the ball to DJC, and this game could’ve been a whole lot more for FF…despite his lingering leg issue. All ‘good news’.

 -- Matt Stafford (19-31 for 223 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) has yet to throw for 300+ yards in a game this season. His completion percentage is sitting at a 5+ year low of 60.7%. He’s not terrible, he’s just not playing all that well. He’s not a top 15-18 FF QB right now.

The Lions are trying to play ball control, and thus Stafford is a low volume passer on a low volume passing game plan/play calling coaching staff.

He’s not a great QB2 option…but many took him as a QB2, myself included in spots, as a safe backup plan with upside from his hot 2019 – it’s not in sight for 2020. It’s not going to happen, on purpose…only if the game flow drags him into it.

All that hurts the projections for Golladay-Marvin-Hockenson.

Snap Counts of Interest…

57 = Chark

48 = Cole

47 = Shenault

15 = Collin Johnson

15 = Conley

44 = J Robinson

20 = Chris Thompson

46 = TJ Hockenson

42 = Jesse James

29 = Swift

27 = AP

17 = Kerryon

R.C. Fischer

FFM

21 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Cardinals 38, Cowboys 10

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

How bad are ‘dem Cowboys? I mean…this has to be one of the five worst run organizations in football, no? Like the Jets then the Giants, then Bengals…then maybe the Cowboys or Eagles? The Browns seem more stable today.

When Jerry Jones has a football decision to make, he’s going to butcher it. He keeps hiring incompetent coaches because Jones may be smart as a whip in other things but he’s terrible in football people decisions…partly because he wants subordinate lackeys and some of it is he’s just bad reading football people. I mean, only an idiot would hire Mike McCarthy after his Green Bay ending. Nothing McCarthy has done for the past decade has given anyone confidence in him…and yet Jerry paid him a monster deal to come sleep-at-the-switch for Dallas.

Mike McCarthy was a mistake. Taking Ezekiel Elliott in the draft over Jalen Ramsey was a mistake. Paying Ezekiel a monster contract was a mistake. Taking CeeDee Lamb as a 1st-round pick was a mistake. Mistake after mistake with Jerry is catching up. Jerry has the best personnel guy in the business, Will McClay but messes that up by making his own 1st-round picks and hiring terrible coaches to manage good players. The Cowboys don’t have a talent issue…it’s worse, it’s a management issue. And that management issue cannot be fixed this year or any year until Jerry retires.

The constant fumbling around and big deficits early in games – it was happening with Dak before, and then again with Dalton here…it’s a coaching issue. Nothing more, nothing less. Imagine where Dallas would even be had Jerry gotten to draft Paxton Lynch instead of taking Dak. Jerry wanted to draft Lynch so BAD he almost started crying on TV when someone else took him. Without Dak, Dallas would be adrift…worse than they are now.

This was not Arizona winning…this was Dallas being Dallas, and Arizona stepped out of the way and let the Cowboys faceplant.

Dallas is (2-4) and they are probably not going to win the NFC East. I don’t know who is, but it’s not Dallas. Philly by attrition maybe but NYG or WSH still have a chance.

Arizona (4-2) wins to get to four wins on the season and that should be a nice story, but all the story coming from this is (rightfully) so is how bad Dallas is. Arizona is fortunate that Dallas took the bullet here, because the Cardinals weren’t that great in this game, and they secretly stink…but beating the Jets and Cowboys the past two weeks is a smoke screen from that reality. Arizona is going to start getting exposed starting Week 7 v. SEA.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- We begin, per usual in an Arizona recap, with the Kyler Murray (9-24 for 188 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 10-74-1) Report…and the report is not good.

9 of 24 passing (37.5%)? At home, against Dallas? In a dome/perfect weather?

Had Kyler not hit Christian Kirk (2-86-2/3) for a broken coverage, wide-open 80-yard TD…he was 8-of-23 passing (34.8%) for 108 yards otherwise. Thank goodness, for FF, Kyler is still running the ball heavy.

I don’t see Kyler Murray getting any better as a passer, and I don’t see this offense doing anything better than last year. It’s the same tired plays and routes, only this year Kyler is running more and that is opening up opportunity. And Kyler is a gifted arm talent, so he makes plays…and is more comfortable in his NFL shoes now. I would FF-fear this ‘no progression’/this offense + seeing the weakening passer numbers/volume, EXCEPT the schedule is GOLDEN ahead. They don’t face a top 10 pass defense until Week 12 at NE.

The closing schedule is rougher…Weeks 12-16 are all against top 10-15 pass defenses and two potential cold weather games Week 12 at NE, Week 14 at NYG.

Kyler is working for Fantasy. The #2 PPG QB in the game right now (4pts per pass TD). He should keep working for FF, but a slowdown coming starting Week 12 potentially. He’s putting up great numbers, he’s running a lot, he has a great name – I’m not against trading him super high or just sticking with him. He won’t hurt you bad. But I see some things that worry me for the future, so if I made a killer deal to get multiple great pieces in a deal, especially if I get Josh Allen or Justin Herbert, either QB + a great piece (especially in a 6pts per pass TD and/or with bonuses for yards), I’m looking at it.

You need do nothing.

I’m just sharing what I see…and what I see is starting to worry me on how great, how high-end sustainable this will be.

In another week, he might be the highest scoring player in all of FF 2020. It’s not like we got a massive problem here.

Any Dynasty owners complaining that I said he was the top Dynasty Rookie prospect in 2019…and to make major deals to get him? You’re not wanting Josh Jacobs over Kyler instead/anymore, I bet. The thought process and reality on Kyler back in 2019 is working, but I’m not just going to fall asleep on it and assume it’s all gold from here. Mahomes it is all-gold all the time…Kyler, I’m not so sure.

 -- Kenyan Drake (20-164-2, 0-0-0/2) was on his way to another ‘meh’ NFL and FF performance, but a late game 3rd & 1 play to run the clock turned into a wide-open 69 yards TD run and made Drake look like a star, on paper.

If I owned Drake, I couldn’t sell him fast enough off this output – it was mostly a fluke.

The schedule of pass defenses ahead is pretty sweet, but those opponent’s run defenses are great. Not a good outlook ahead for the sluggish/mediocre Drake.

 -- I’d be selling Christian Kirk (2-86-2/3) to anyone who would believe he is anywhere near a WR2 now. If they didn’t, I’d hold and just let him take advantage/have hope with this sweet pass game schedule ahead.

I’ll buy DeAndre Hopkins (2-73-0/8) if anyone is panicking.in PPR. Hopkins is a great target for Kyler but note that DHopk only has 2 TDs this season…on a pace for 5-6 TDs this season. He’s putting up old Keenan Allen numbers…big volume, big catches, so-so TDs.

Rounding out the Arizona WRs…Andy Isabella (0-0-0/2), I pray he gets traded. He’s so not used properly in this offense it’s silly. A wasted draft pick…and 2nd-rounder in 2019.

 -- Like I was saying Sunday morning about Andy Dalton (34-54 for 266 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs)…

I could not understand why all the ‘the team will barely miss a beat with Dalton instead of Dak’! chatter was happening. Who thought that? It was all the highly paid analysts. Why do they think that? Because they have no idea what they’re doing…and they’re also giving advice on other things they know nothing of – like they think Josh Allen is fading.

If anyone watched this game start-to-finish, it was Joe Flacco 2019 and 2020-esque. I think so many analysts are like Jerry Jones…so sold a bag of goods on a prospect like CeeDee Lamb (7-64-0/10) that they think the offense is bulletproof because of the great CeeDee joining the mix of Amari-Gallup.

First off, Chase Claypool and Justin Jefferson are already 10x better than Lamb, so it was a stupid pick already…easy to say/judge that today. You would never draft Lamb ahead of Claypool or Jefferson knowing what you know now. I could name 3-5+ other rookie WRs better than Lamb, but I’ll just stick with the two most obvious to prove the point immediately.

Secondly, Cedrick Wilson (2-10-0/3) is as good/better than CeeDee Lamb.

Third, Lamb took a lot of garbage time throws late to pump his numbers but into the 4th-quarter his numbers were a nightmare.

I implored you, for the low amount of FFMers who have him, to sell him hot last week…you still have a chance this week.

 -- I loved all the Ezekiel Elliott (12-49-0, 8-31-0/11) excuse making on MNF. Some guys are assumed elite and bulletproof and their mistakes are not really their mistakes, they are written off as ‘not them’/’need to clean up’. Zeke is beyond reproach, as is CeeDee Lamb…and it’s going to destroy, and already is, the Dallas Cowboys franchise.

The Dallas ownership believes a lie/lives in its own world, and the TV people and their fans keep enabling them.

They are still selling an s-ton of Dallas merch…so, who’s the fool in this equation?

The Cowboys have 3 playoff wins since 1997…and no NFC finals appearances.

Zeke Elliott is well-paid/getting fat-dumb-happy, his numbers are in decline, his on-field face/body language seems ‘checked out’. He’s going to get the touches of a high-end RB1 but producing high-end RB1 numbers is now in question for 2020. We might start seeing the Saquon Barkley problem here – bad O-Line, defenses stacked against him, and you hope he somehow finds his way to TDs and catches to have decent FF numbers.

5 fumbles this year, 4 fumbles lost.

I’m going to take a shot of Diet Dr. Pepper every time I hear an analyst say, this week, that Zeke just needs to clean that up and I know he will, about his fumbling.

The issue is the O-Line first and foremost, now compounded by the QB play. Zeke is solid, but now he’s taking on big hits with little blocking like never before and he’s being exposed as ‘good’ not ‘great’ – but Jerry already paid for ‘great’. Most RBs are a function of their O-Line…so, Zeke is in trouble for the rest of 2020.

Make sure you own Tony Pollard (10-31-0, 2-9-0/4) just in case…

 -- The Cardinals-DST looked sharp here, but don’t get sucked in by them. They are the #9 DST in FF PPG through Week 6, but much of that came early in the season. Their defense has been fading for weeks and lost Chandler Jones a week ago – they just luckily drew Flacco-Dalton in back-to-back weeks. Russell Wilson this week…no thanks.

Snap Counts of Interest:

54 = Elliott

32 = Pollard

42 = Drake

23 = Edmonds

50 = Kirk

48 = D Hopkins

38 = Fitz

19 = Isabella

R.C. Fischer

FFM

20 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Chiefs 26, Bills 17

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

This will be known as the game that took this from a potentially great FFM week to just an OK/decent/good one across the land.

For some, it was the one that might have near-destroyed many a fantasy season for FF teams struggling, needing a win to take their (1-4) team to (2-4) and a game out of the race and an all new season outlook ahead…instead they got dealt a loss and a drop to (1-5).

What caused such destruction from this game?

Anyone FF-tied to the Chiefs and Bills high functioning passing games…a game that was set up for an offensive explosion/battler – it instead pissed down a misting rain all game and made the passing game a challenge from the opening throw. The Chiefs started to run the ball easily and then they kept running and dominated the time of possession.

It was a 2020 low for pass attempts by Patrick Mahomes…a career low for a non-Week 17 regular season game amount of pass attempts for him. It was an Andy Reid career record (if I heard it correctly) 46 rushing attempts. That’s not ‘normal’…not what we built on for FF.

It was Josh Allen’s lowest pass attempts of 2020 in a game by far. It was his lowest total completions in a game in 2020 by nearly half of the next lowest…as they barely had the ball in the 2nd-half.

What’s scary is (if you have Mahomes-Tyreek-Kelce, etc.)…Buffalo just gave the blueprint for a way to defeat KC, and it would kill many of us for Fantasy, but I don’t think the NFL will pick up on it or try. We forget, for as sloppy as this game was, for obvious reasons, the Bills went down just 6 points with 6+ minutes left…one drive stop away from having a chance to win it late. KC converted two 3rd & longs and kept driving and took a field goal to put it out of reach. Buffalo was in this game for everything going against them, seemingly.

You think you saw ‘Buffalo can’t stop the run’. You did, but I think that was their plan – force the Chiefs to run, and run successfully it might wind up…but don’t let them get passing game momentum, give up plays, keep the clock running, hope the rookie RB pops the ball loose in the rain. The underdog Bills tried to win an actual football game with a left-handed, unorthodox strategy…but it killed Fantasy Football output. Just a theory.

You can get mad all you want about it for FF…but it was a smart underdog v. the best passing team in football in the rain strategy. And people are FF-mad…I’m FF-mad, because if this game were played in normal conditions it would have been a different strategy/outcome, and strategies against KC tend to blow up into heavy passing shootouts. The Maid of the Mist game forced this in a whole other direction…and it wasn’t good for many of us for FF on both sides spare Kelce and CEH.

I’m mad, but there’s opportunity that is going to come from this if you keep your wits about you…or for those who had nothing involved with this game and don’t much care – oh, there’s opportunity. I’ll explain in a moment.

You don’t want to be the team that faces Buffalo this week…oh, wait it’s the Jets. If you play for the Jets, you don’t want to be on the team anyway. It’s going to be ugly, taking Buffalo to (5-2) heading to a Week 8 showdown with the Patriots, where they can end the Patriots’ reign. We see Buffalo hitting 10 wins and winning the AFC East as it stands today.

KC is now (5-1) and their next test is Week 11 at LV, and Week 12 at TB…Weeks 14-15 at MIA, at NO is not easy either. The Chiefs project to (12-4/13-3) for us right now…and maybe not a #1 seed. We see the Ravens getting that still, due to their easier schedule, but a lot of football to go.

As we get into the player section, you need to put on a different set of glasses to view this game/outcome through. You have to realize the following, whether I will just have described your thoughts (this moment)…or I am exactly describing others you’re going to deal with – it’s these others that you want to go find/expose/seek and destroy in a trade.

The mindset is – more than a few FF teams lost games they thought they had won if their KC-BUF players just had a decent/normal-ish game. Many didn’t and now temper tantrums are going to be thrown. I’m not speculating that – it’s a fact. I see/hear it already. A Monday Night Game…for all the world to view…a big let down at a pivotal part of the FF season…and these stupid players can’t even act right, and they must be punished…and some we need to runaway from and seek relief from any player that had a good Week 6, unlike their terrible players who can’t even score a few points on live television.

That ‘mad as hell’ sentiment exists…it is real within many because it’s the FF-way – whatever happened last game is the truth going forward with non-star players and in order to be a good FF manager you need to punish them by trading them for things, to show them who is the boss…to show you’re not taking this loss lying down. Fire sales begin today on some players from this game/mentality/angst.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- This is the best window to buy Josh Allen (14-27 for 122 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 8-42-0). He had a mediocre Week 5 (in the rain v. TEN) and then looked bad here (in the rain) but his FF-stats actually weren’t bad. They just weren’t ‘wow’. Two weeks in-a-row of not-wow equals ‘he sucks’ to people who already fear he sucks and was a three-week hoax to start the season.

The thing is…people, by and large, don’t believe in Josh Allen. We’ve been conditioned for two years that he sucks. I, chief among them. Then he’s amazing Weeks 1-3, and we’re seeing ‘whaddya know, look who is playing awesome’ stories all over pregame shows…but it’s done in the sense of disbelief, waiting for the other shoe to drop…waiting for that old reality to strike. This ‘shoe is dropping’ sentiment seems close to becoming reality with two ‘meh’ FF games in a row. Really, it’s three in-a-row of solid/OK/good but not the Weeks 1-2-3 wow.

122 yards passing here in this game, 51.9% completions…the guy is regressing! I know that’s what many Allen owners think today.

From them, I am going to go try and buy all the discounted Josh Allen stock I can.

You know where I stand on Allen for weeks – this is real, it’s not a hoax. It’s closer to ‘special’ than ‘concerning’.

Within this ‘terrible’ game, I saw Josh Allen make some throws that were unreal. Allen was not wild/inaccurate in this game…this game with a constant wet spray all game. He was on the mark most of the night and hit several guys on the money, but they couldn’t make the play.

On the first series, 3rd & long, Allen in some muddiness just cranked off a throw off his back foot on a dime to John Brown for an easy first down, but Brown slipped in his cut and was falling as the pass came in, and it ended up hitting him (wide open) in the face mask for an incompletion. Had that subtle money throw landed, the Bills were likely scoring first in this game on the first drive. It was very wet, things happen…but subtle things like this get overlooked versus ‘just the box score’/FF numbers.

3rd-series, KC up 7-3, Allen in some muddiness in the pocket…Allen stepped up, looked like he might run, then looked like he was going to dump it short, but then just decided with no feet really planted to just flick it deep for 50+ yards to a streaking Stefon Diggs – and he hit Diggs in stride, over two defenders, the most perfect ball placement throw of 2020 perhaps, it hit Diggs in the hands running full speed near the back of the end zone, and Diggs couldn’t haul it in. It was an MVP type throw…and nobody cares because it wasn’t completed.

I’m telling you Josh Allen is playing great football. He’s better than, more of an MVP 2020 type player than Lamar Jackson right now. He’s on a level, to some degree, with what Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert are doing…and Allen will run on purpose, like a boss, to get things done. He had several purposeful runs in this game to convert 1st-downs and keep the drive moving.

You should invest in Josh Allen while the price has dropped…because people don’t really trust him, and the recent ‘good/OK’ games and the two back-to-back NFL losses are only confirming fears. Rotoworld notes said ‘he looked like his 2019 self’ and ‘the weather made no difference for Mahomes’.

The State sponsored media message is out there. After Week 3, the ‘cool kids’ all noticed how good Allen was and did there ‘well, lookie here…you dolts out there probably don’t know that Josh Allen is playing really well, so let us do a 2-3 minute segment acting surprised and pointing it out with a laugh’ routine. After Week 6, the ‘cool kids’ are going to turn on Allen because it’s easier to reconcile…it means all their/our prior scouting was right.

I’m telling you…it is not.

Now, I’m not saying go trade Allen for Mahomes. Come on. I’m just saying…Allen was a top 3 FF QB getting fawning press all Weeks 2-3-4, and the price was jacked. Now, he’s falling back to a ‘who cares, I could get the same numbers from Carr-Ryan-Tannehill’.

The time is now to strike.

The one issue to making a great trade this week…he faces the Jets this week. People may want to have that matchup. Make a deal right now but for after Week 7 if you have to. Agree to it now, but that you’ll execute it Week 8. If you let Allen go shred the Jets and bring his price back up, you’ll have missed your window.

Remember…we’re/I’m excited about Allen…not them. I don’t care what they tell you, believe they are panicked. Don’t fall for their words.

 -- Because of the sloppy weather, reduced time of possession/low pass attempts…all the Bills receivers go on sale…

Stefon Diggs (6-46-1/8) did good FF-numbers, but not great…and him being tied to ‘terrible, fading Allen’ – Diggs can be had, reasonably, just like the past few weeks. He’s a top 3 fantasy WR, trading like a top 12-15. Keep getting him.

John Brown (0-0-0/4)…two of the first three passes of this game were to Brown, and the one I described earlier (where he slipped) was the summary of his night. They tried to get him going at first, just back from injury, but the conditions and then lack of Buffalo time of possession of the ball started hurting everything. In a regular weather game, Brown will benefit from the attention to Diggs. He would have benefitted here if it were any type of normal game. Eventually, he was just used to clear out space for shorter throws.

You probably won’t need to trade for Brown…he might be cut by teams this week. In trade, he’s a WR3-4 now…a throw in for you. Take him. Get him for depth. You want the #2 WR on a top passing team…and remember, only we believe that, not ‘them’. Don’t overpay. Don’t even pay in many cases…just wait for him to get cut. Facing the Jets this week may keep him on people’s rosters is my angst.

 -- Devin Singletary (10-32-0, 1-13-0/2) is all but dead. Good start to this game…really good, and then the game started getting away and forcing Buffalo to pass more in the limited time they had the ball.

It doesn’t matter how good Singletary looked early in this game, or what my scouting of Singletary is…the Bills have the worst run blocking offensive line in the NFL. Not my gut feeling, but many metrics would confirm…if not the worst, one of the worst.

Devin Singletary is running behind a bad O-Line, splitting some touches with Zack Moss (5-10-0), and Josh Allen takes the bulk of the short TD runs because he can/it works. Devin Singletary is a dead RB3. He does start/play and get touches and sometimes things happen, so he has that value, but otherwise…for 2020…of what I see of this run game…he’s dead. Nearly cut-able in a 12-team/17-man roster league, but everyone needs RB depth and at least DS starts/plays good snaps/gets decent touches.

You can’t count on Singletary ahead in 2020 for FF.

 -- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (26-161-0, 4-8-0/4) blew up with a nice game…but, again, the Bills have a bad run defense, and I think the Bills were welcoming this run game to try to keep KC off balance and then try to make plays holding them out of the end zone when the field got short. They wanted KC to run, and they did.

Whatever it was…CEH is good, he had a good game…didn’t score a TD, again.

CEH will start ahead. Le’Veon Bell will slowly integrate in…and I think be more of a WR/RB than a real RB but gets goal line. If the Jay Glazer report on Bell is true (not brought in to start), and that report is the talk of FF this week AND then Bell plays like 10-15 snaps Week 7…then Bell’s value will plummet, then you can come in to make a PPR deal if you want to see if Bell is going to be a slick PPR and goal line back play.

CEH? I’d feel out the trade market and see if you can flip him to something bigger, but the Le’Veon effect is still strong. Fears abound on CEH. Like the early weeks of Ronald Jones disbelief we capitalized on to get him cheap for Leonard Fournette takeover fears. CEH has more fear than hope from people right now, hard to trade into that…but you might find a rookie lover out there to pay big. You don’t need to dump CEH…but ‘sell high’ is good…if you want.

 -- I am never going to recommend Mecole Hardman (0-0-0/1) again no matter how good the matchup looks. I already don’t like Mecole as a talent/WR to begin with but even the football genius that I am gets sucked in by ‘with Mahomes’ in a good matchup with Sammy Watkins on the shelf has to work. It rarely/never does.

I can see week-after-week that Mahomes (and the coaching staff) has little trust in Hardman. He’s just a random event every 4-5 weeks for a deep ball play in a game. Good luck guessing which week it happens.

 -- Now, get ready for your KC-DST hold to pay off nicely/higher…

Weeks 7 at Drew Lock, Week 8 v. Jets, Week 9 v. Carolina.

The Las Vegas game meltdown Week 5 is a thing of the past. It randomly happens to most good defenses in 2020. Heck, the Ravens gave up 28 points to the Eagles this week. Indy gave up 21 points in a blink to Cincy before anyone knew what happened.

The best defenses for FF are the ones that face the Jets or the NFC East/Giants or Eagles or Redskins or Dallas. Nothing else matters as much, or just randomly happens.

Snap Counts of Interest:

51 = Brown

51 = Diggs

34 = Beasley

33 = Davis

40 = Singletary

13 = Moss

49 = CEH

23 = D Williams

69 = Demarcus Robinson

67 = Tyreek

29 = Mecole

28 = Pringle

R.C. Fischer

FFM

20 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: 49ers 24, Rams 16

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

Going into this game…

-The 49ers were crushed by Miami prior week and Jimmy G. effectively quasi-benched for poor play and the SF defense giving up points like crazy.

-The Rams being argued as the best team in football by some (not me) and was favored to put SF out of their misery in this game.

In this game…

-The 49ers blew the doors off of the Rams…the final score not indicative of how outcoached, how out-planned, how out-efforted the Rams were by the 49ers.

I’m stupid…

-Last week, I thought the 49ers were on the brink of season over and should sell-off and prep for 2021 and that Jimmy G. might be benched/traded with another bad game/loss.

BUT…I did bet on SF + the points, because the NFL does the opposite of what you think, always.

The delicate genius (Sean McVay) was put in his place by the better, true young-genius head coach…Kyle Shanahan. It was 21-6 SF at the half and the Rams held down the 49ers in the 2nd-half, just a FG for scoring for SF in the 2nd-half missing Raheem Mostert to an ankle injury, but the Rams couldn’t score a TD until 3+ minutes left and then couldn’t stop the 49ers to get the ball back. A 38-22 minute time of possession advantage for the 49ers…and the 22 minutes the Rams had the ball was Jared Goff playing as bad as Jimmy G. did the week prior.

The 49ers keep their season alive…a loss would have really sent them reeling. The 49ers are now (3-3) with a tough stretch the next six weeks (at NE, at SEA, GB, at NO, BYE, at LAR…four road games, two in Eastern time zone, all with playoff expected teams). We are projecting SF to 8-9 wins now, but 7 wins in play still. Tough schedule, many injuries to deal with…it’s an uphill climb for the 49ers.

The Rams fraud season got exposed. (4-0) vs. the NFC East so far…and (0-2) against everyone else. Bad news…no more NFC East on the schedule the rest of the way…and a VERY tough schedule ahead. We project the Rams for 8-9 wins…with 7 possible, and 10 wins not out of the question…depends upon what the delicate genius does at RB ahead.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I don’t know what to say about the chronicles of Darrell Henderson (14-88-0)…he’s a starter, no he’s splitting, wait he’s an RB1 of the future, no…switch that -- trade him hot off his 2 TD game, but wait here comes Cam Akers, no…Akers plays 1 snap and DH is the clear starter. It’s a whipsaw.

All I know for the future is what happened in this game:

Henderson started, played 53% of the snaps (Brown 45%), took the huge bulk of the touches. He looks and feels and sounds and quacks like a main carry starting RB…so, he must be one?

I also can say – he looked fantastic in this game and if they would’ve pushed him more the game outcome might have been different but they went heavy Jared Goff early, and he was a disaster, and then they were down and chasing. DH had a sweet 5+ yard TD run here…but called back for penalty.

Unless Sean McVay says something different…I’m sucked back in for Week 7, with him as an RB1. I’m also back buying him low if possible…because the FF game tally here was just 8.8 pts., so there may be some complacency with him. I’m not buying at all costs because if DH works a 50/50 split with Akers next week we’ll all be crying again.

Henderson has a tentative hold on the ‘main workload’ role, right now.

 -- The two best RBs (ignoring the great Derrick Henry), visually, as an experienced scout, that I’m watching every week are…

#1b) Darrell Henderson (not joking or being a DH homer) – the toughest runner in the NFL, period…with explosive speed/burst and excellent interior vision.  

#1a) Raheem Mostert (17-65-0, 2-11-0/2).

Mostert is getting faster with age. He is running like he’s floating on air and always has space to get ramped up it seems. I watch David Johnson run into brick walls the moment he gets the handoff, while I watch Mostert get a five-yard head start on every one of his runs.  

*I wrote the following before I knew Mostert was going on I.R.*

I want to buy all the Mostert stock I can…if his ankle is OK. He came out of the game 2nd-half and his status for Week 7 is unknown. He was still dressed, standing on the sidelines at the end…not carted off or anything. However, the Rams closed the lead to 8 and had the ball with 3+ minutes left and if the Rams stopped the drive they could’ve had a shot to win…a big, crucial drive…and UDFA rookie JaMycal Hasty (9-37-0, 0-0-0/1) was in to close it out (and looked very solid). That’s pretty good trust for a UDFA rookie who has barely played…which scares me on Mostert’s ankle.

Four thoughts:

1) I want Mostert…only once I know his ankle is not something tragic/bad.

2) If Mostert has to miss a week, I bet JaMycal Hasty leads the 49ers in RB touches Week 7. Unless…

3) If Tevin Coleman is really back Week 7 (and I think he will be, but not 100% sure), then it might be a Tevin/Hasty 50/50 split…and a Mostert-Tevin 70/30 split for the future.

4) Jerick McKinnon seems dead to Kyle Shanahan. I’ve thought that for two weeks now. He will make the backfield a trio if Mostert out and Tevin back.

*Obviously, I’m not investing in Mostert now. He’ll miss at least 3 games. If Tevin Coleman is back, he’ll be the starter.

Yards before contact per attempt 2020 (2.0+ yards are what you want to see for good blocking for the RB, and I rarely ever see 2.5-3.0+):

4.9 = Mostert

3.0 = Henderson

--------- (some context names below) ----------

3.1 = Derrick Henry

1.8 = Zeke Elliott

1.6 = David Johnson

0.9 = Singletary

 -- JaMycal Hasty looked very energetic and confident with his big chance. He looks like a real/useful NFL RB. He’s like a (old) Devonta Freeman ‘try hard’ RB not as athletic but high effort’s his way through things. He’ll be solid if forced into action, like most decent RB prospects.

 -- I loved what I saw from Darrell Henderson and Raheem Mostert in this game (and this season), but maybe the most impressive here: Deebo Samuel (6-66-1/6).

Deebo is being used as a quasi-RB with all those short pitch passes in motion coming across the QB and with his jet sweeps. He’s also being used like he IS the most important thing in the offense. WRs are slave to their QB for FF…and slave to the opposing coverage, weather conditions, score/game flow, etc. -- passing can be amped or throttled back depending upon score but Deebo gets his touches like a quasi-RB, so he’s not as tied to the aerial assault need.

Deebo might, like this game, ‘catch’ 3-4-5 passes a game on these little push passes in the backfield before we get into regular pass routes or jet sweeps. Which means Deebo is in the WR1 race for the ROS.

 -- I thought Jimmy Garoppolo (23-33 for 268 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) looked about as bad as he ever had last week…and that his job might be on the line in this game. Well, he played as good a game here as I’ve seen him the past 10+ games.

Jared Goff (19-38 for 198 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) looked as bad here as Jimmy G. did last week…and, at least, JG had the excuse of coming off an injury last week. Watching Goff in this game…I know he’s a solid QB talent, but he’s not a QB as built for this new era of mobility and athleticism. He’s going to be good but never elite in his career, not in this era. He’d have been really good in the 90s and 00s, and early 10s (like a Matt Ryan).

 -- The quintessential Tyler Higbee (3-56-0/4) 2020 game…which is why I was jumping off last week. The Rams WRs were getting killed/squashed all game, and there was never a shift to more Higbee. Actually, this was a ‘big move’ to Higbee for the Rams…4 targets.

 -- Rams LB Micah Kiser (13 tackles) was back in the lineup from injury and starting and getting his big tackle counts again. Troy Reeder is a distant memory…just a spot start last week.

 -- One of the reasons the 49ers defense was tight on the Rams WRs? The renewal of Jason Verrett (3 tackles, 2 PDs, 1 INT) at CB. The 49ers have stuck with him for years letting him recover from multiple ACLs, and he is now starting and has allowed a shockingly low 12.0 QB rating in his 4 starts.

I watched some of Verrett’s coverage in this game…it was good but not ‘wow’, but I also noticed Goff staying way away from him. If Verrett is back to being a shutdown corner than that changes the 49ers downfall in the secondary…awaiting a Richard Sherman return.

I still believe the 49ers defense just gives up too many points, as I chronicled last week…they’ve been terrible their past 10-15 games. Now…no Bosa, no Sherman, Buckner traded, linebackers hurt every other week. All I can assume is this Rams game was an outlier…because it was. Only 2 QB hits and no sacks for the SF-DST and yet Jared Goff played like he was facing the 85 Bears. I don’t believe the 49ers-DST turned a corner here, but they did stop the bleeding.

Snap Counts of Interest:

35 = Mostert

23 = McKinnon

15 = Hasty

32 – Henderson

27 = M Brown

01 = Akers