- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8 Game Analysis: Seahawks 37, 49ers 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The score was a lot closer than reality. Seattle led 30-7 with 14 minutes left in this game. The 49ers added three garbage-ish scores, but this wasn’t ever in doubt…and the 49ers lost Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle along the way making it a pretty dour game. Considering the Seahawks ran with a 4th-string, rookie RB…it was a pretty resounding takedown of SF.
Seattle is now (6-1) and took a big step forward for the NFC West title. We see 11-12 wins for Seattle and fighting off Arizona and L.A. for the division.
San Francisco falls to (4-4) and has schedule trouble ahead…and now Kittle and Jimmy G. are out for weeks along with Deebo and Mostert out for another week. GB, at NO, BYE, at LAR, BUF the next 4 weeks…the 49ers could get blown out of 2020 by the time we hit December. For all intents and purposes…it’s over for them. Too many injuries. Not their fault. Their only hope is splitting the next four games and get to (6-6) and get Jimmy G. back and trying to win three of their final 4 games to finish the season to sneak into the playoffs. Not likely to happen.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- You saw what Dalvin Cook did to the Green Bay defense? You can run hard on the Packers, been true for two years now…and they have even worse linebacker play in 2020. The Packers knew that Cook was going to get the ball and they couldn’t stop it…which was like what the 49ers did to the Packers in last year’s playoffs – remember, when Raheem Mostert ran for 200+ and 4 TDs against them?
Well, I assume the 49ers are going there (a heavy run game) again Week 9 because…why wouldn’t they? If so, JaMycal Hasty (12-29-1, 1-2-0/1) not Jerick McKinnon (3-0-1, 4-40-0/4) could be in for a big workload and output.
Tevin Coleman is already out for Week 9…he’s about droppable, he can’t stay healthy…and then Raheem Mostert planned to return Week 10.
If Mostert is back Week 10 and the 49ers are fading away…there’s no need to rush back Coleman, and if the season falls the next few weeks – Coleman could get cut. The 49ers would turn to younger backs to see what they have for 2021. Coleman is a very weak hold right now, but it seems like 2-3 RBs get hurt for the 49ers every other week…so who knows?
-- It’s 2020, and midway through the season…JaMycal Hasty and DeeJay Dallas (18-41-1, 5-17-1/5) are now important things in fantasy. I’d rather have Hasty for Week 9.
Carlos Hyde is likely out Week 9, again.
Chris Carson is 50/50 for Week 9.
Travis Homer (1-4-0) is likely to be active but he’s not 100% but could be closer to healthy for Week 9.
If Carson is healthy, he’s the man Week 9.
If Carson is out and Homer is practicing more this week…it would be a Homer split with Dallas.
If Carson is out and Homer barely practices…Dallas has another shot at the lead role Week 9.
My guess is one of Carson or Homer, or both, muddies this up for another Dallas fairytale FF week.
-- Who does Nick Mullens (18-25 for 238 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) throw to?
Well, this game went off the rails and he worked Brandon Aiyuk (8-91-1/11) and Kendrick Bourne (8-81-0/10) against prevent defenses in the 2nd-half.
Mullens’ prior two starts in 2020…
3.5 rec. (6.0 targets), 48.0 yards, 0.0 TDs = Bourne
3.5 rec. (6.5 targets), 44.0 yards, 0.0 TDs = Aiyuk
Deebo wasn’t available in one of the games, and just came back to debut for 2020 in the other to skew some of this.
The interesting thing is – Mullens, apparently, LOVES tight ends…
Mullens first full start, Jordan Reed and Ross Dwelley combined for 6 rec. for 72 yards off 10 targets.
Mullens’ next week/start, George Kittle returned and had that 15 catch, 183 yards, and 1 TD game.
Jordan Reed might be back for TNF, but if not…Ross Dwelley could be in line for an interesting week.
-- Remember when Tyler Lockett (4-33-0/5) had that 15-200-3/20 game two weeks ago? If you ignore that game, in his last three games: 3.3 rec., 38.7 yards, 0.0 TDs per game. Three of his last 4 games have been an FF-dud.
I still maintain the belief…Lockett has to be a decent play every week given the passing game numbers and sometimes D-C’s might actually over-cover D.K. Metcalf (12-161-2/15) and give opportunity for Lockett numbers like he’s put up in half his games this season.
-- Dante Pettis (DNP) returned a kick in this game and fumbled it away…and he was cut on Tuesday.
For a moment, Pettis was the 49ers #1 WR in 2018…and then expected to be the #1 in 2019 but it all fell apart, he went into the doghouse and never left. Now, he’s a free agent.
Looking at GB-KC-BAL as landing spots…but his career is all but shot it appears. Has the skills, but not the heart – but a change may do him good.
Snap Counts of Interest:
35 = McKinnon
29 = Hasty
54 = DeeJay Dallas
07 = Homer
43 = Dissly
37 = Olsen
26 = Hollister
03 = Parkinson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8 Game Analysis: Bucs 25, Giants 23
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Giants are the best team in the NFC East.
Well, they might have been if they literally had any other QB than Daniel Jones – they did it to themselves. They’re the team playing the best of all the weak NFC East teams, but Daniel Jones has cost them in so many ways. The Giants have lost their last two games by a total of three points. Their last three losses by a total of 6 points. They’ve played tough and been a nuisance to opponents in most every game…they just can’t count on Daniel Jones coming through or not turning it over in a key spot game-to-game, so they’re (1-7) instead of (3-4)/(4-3) right now.
In this game, the Giants played toe-to-toe with (arguably) the best team in the NFC. They lost by two points late, just two points…when they have a 14+ point differential at the QB spot. The team with the toughest defense in this game looked like NYG in many spots, not the vaunted Bucs defense.
The tougher run game…looked like the Giants running a 3rd-string RB (Gallman) + Alfred Morris (who I honestly didn’t know was still in the NFL until about 830pmET or so Monday Night). The Giants RB-duo were crashing into the line of scrimmage just as well as the Bucs RB-duo here.
The Giants beat the Bucs on Monday Night Football…they just didn’t win the final score battle. Credit to Joe Judge, because you could say the same thing most every week about the Giants. It’s not his fault he’s stuck with Daniel Jones and has no other options to turn to any better.
The Bucs could be guilty of taking the Giants lightly here, but you wouldn’t think it true of a national TV game with the roll the Bucs have been on. I thought they’d try to make a show of it, but they scuffled the whole night…a lot of it due to the Giants hard-nosed defense. The Bucs average margin of victory has been meaty…but they were lucky to survive this close call. If the Bucs beat the Saints Week 9…the NFC South really swings in their favor. We project the Bucs going (12-4) and right there trying to get that #1 seed.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I guess we’re all going to have to switch to a mindset of Ronald Jones (7-23-0, 4-23-0/4) being the starter in name only, but Leonard Fournette (15-52-0, 3-19-0/6) being the real starter…coming off the bench.
If Arians was firmly behind RoJo, he would have never benched him for as long as he did after his fumble in this game. Jones got the fumble-punishment that I don’t believe Fournette would have…so, we are seeing into Arians’ soul – and his soul is with Fournette right now. It could change on a dime, as we’ve seen.
My guess is in games they get up big and can just muscle through to the end…Jones will carry the ball a lot. When the Bucs are throwing early, in deficit, in the hurry up, whenever it matters…Fournette will be more of the lead. And it will be random patterns with both getting work and a hot hand will seize any particular day/game.
Three thoughts about the Bucs backfield going forward:
1) It’s going to be maddening to project for FF week-to-week.
2) We’ve taken a solid RB1 output of a true lead back for Tampa Bay, and split it in two to create two RB2s, RB2.5s.
3) Fournette looks like the lesser back/talent to me still to this day. Fournette is running up the middle into nothing, not making any real exciting plays…but he is a reliable catcher of the ball, so he’ll have PPR RB2 appeal week-to-week. RoJo is not going away, in part, because Fournette doesn’t look that great running the ball so far for TB.
Fournette had that wide open 46-yard TD run back in Week 2, late in a game vs. worn down Carolina. On all his other TB carries in 2020: 49 carries for 179 yards for a lowly 3.65 yards per carry.
-- Wayne Gallman (12-44-1, 1-18-0/1) looked better running the ball than Leonard Fournette. File that in the ‘statements I can’t believe I made in 2020…but, welcome to 2020!’ file.
Consider how well Gallman played/looked, and that it was against the top run defense in the NFL. A feather in his cap. Facing Washington next week is a good opportunity for him to have a nice FF game and seize the #1 spot, potentially.
I seriously forgot Alfred Morris (8-28-0) was still in the NFL until this game viewing. Devonta Freeman, Alfred Morris…I guess LeGarrette Blount will be running the ball for NYG next week?
-- So, let’s review the ‘Who does Tom Brady like to throw to’ chronicles…updated for going into Week 9.
Here’s how you know Mike Evans (5-55-1/7) is mostly meaningless to Brady…a big game, tight game and they still don’t look in sync and Brady is still not going heavy to him. However, Brady did find time to make sure Jaydon Mickens (5-36-0/8) led the Bucs in targets this game. Not Evans…not Scotty Miller…not Tyler Johnson…not Gronk…it was J-A-Y-D-O-N M-I-C-K-E-N-S.
What does this mean going forward for FF?
It means Antonio Brown will clearly be the #1 target for Brady right out of the gates Week 9. These two are literally living together. You can’t tell me it’s not going to be AB after we just saw Mickens as their top target in this game. I’m OK starting AB, as a WR2 with upside, Week 9. I think that Saints game is so big the Bucs will come with everything they got.
-- Sterling Shepard (8-74-0/10) continues to prove that despite Dan Dimes’s issues…he’s a WR1.5-2.0 with Dimes, he’s Dan’s #1 target. Undisputed fact now…it has been since last season. Limited upside but not a bad floor due to Dan Jones’s ‘issues’.
-- Evan Engram (5-61-0/10) looked better than last week here…and now, back-to-back games with 9 and 10 targets in a game. Whine if you must, but he’s a TE1 in this TE1 depressed era. A back-end TE1 with upside.
-- The Giants-DST has held four of their last 5 opponents to 25 or fewer points. Brady struggled against them, so did Goff and Wentz in that span. It’s a good defense.
Weeks 9-10 at WAS, PHI are both DST1 projections. Then a BYE, then another DST1 projection at CIN. Then you can’t use the rest of the way except Week 15 v. CLE.
It’s a low-end DST1 hopeful because of their offense not being able to fully support the defense.
-- Four games in-a-row that the Bucs-DST has held opponents to 23 points or less….and six out of their last 7 games. The two best defenses in the NFL that I watch, my eyes say…it’s Baltimore and Tampa Bay.
The Bucs-DST is good enough that you could start the rest of the way, except the blip in Weeks 12-13 with KC and their BYE.
It’s not a great schedule from here, but it’s good enough combined with the TB-DST talent.
-- Two IDPs to point out…two safeties from this game:
Antoine Winfield (7 tackles) may already be the best young safety in the NFL – and definitely the best rookie safety. He’s going to be a star/fixture player for a long time.
You know which safety is playing great too? Playing some intimidating/hard-hitting football…Julius Peppers (10 tackles, 2 PDs). He looks like a guy playing for the big contract in 2021. He’s improving his IDP numbers weekly and working towards some consistency in his numbers finally.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Fournette
17 = RoJo
63 = Evans
53 = Miller
44 = Mickens
35 = Ty Johnson
32 = Gallman
21 = D Lewis
21 = Alf Morris
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8 Game Analysis: Steelers 28, Ravens 24
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I wrote myself six notes about this game, after watching it live then re-watching it again Monday…
1) Baltimore was the better team here.
Nothing against the Steelers, they won…they earned it, they’re good. The Ravens gave the Steelers points on turnovers, including a quick lead to take all the momentum immediately. After that early pick-six, the Steelers were jumping around like they hit the lottery. The Ravens were moping around like a bunch of fantasy owners who owned Lamar and were facing the Steelers-DST on the play.
Despite the initial good vibe boost…after that early pick-six, the Ravens won the rest of the game 24-21…the Ravens also ended the game driving for a late game winning score but ran out of time in the red zone. After the pick-six to start the game…the Ravens went right down and scored to tie it 7-7, and then got the ball back and drove right down the field again to score, but fumbled 3-yards away from paydirt. It was one of those kinds of games…
The Ravens have some issues, but they looked like the better/more ‘team to fear’ here…to me. Which I didn’t think I was going to see on the rewatch.
2) Lamar Jackson cost them the game.
You take the good with the bad…and the bad is – he’s not Patrick Mahomes, and he never will be. He’s going to win a lot of games and make a lot of cool plays but he is a lot like Cam Newton…there’s a ‘dark side’ to this play – he can be selfish (keeping the ball to run near the goal line too much because he wants the TDs) and he’s a bad passer in tight/tough situations. You can win a Super Bowl with him, but there will probably be more falling short than not in tough games.
3) Chase Claypool is going to be star.
I’ve already been saying this all year. Just wanted to reconfirm…superstar in the making.
4) J.K. Dobbins is going to be a star.
I’ve been pro-JKD all year too. More on this in the player section.
5) Ravens CB Jimmy Smith is a star.
He totally wiped out Diontae Johnson. It wasn’t any injury…it was mostly Jimmy Smith.
6) We should worry a bit about Ravens things going forward…
They just lost top OL Ronnie Stanley for the season…that might take this team from very, very good to very good. That’s a huge hit.
The Ravens are now (5-2)…and I suspect you don’t want to be the happy-go-lucky Colts Week 9 when they face the wrath of the Ravens. We could see the Ravens mow down a tough-ish schedule the next 4 weeks (at IND, at NE, TEN, at PIT) and jump to (9-2) and then win out against a super-easy schedule the rest of 2020 after Week 12 at PIT Thanksgiving Night. A nine-game win streak is possible, but they’ll probably trip up somewhere along the way and finish with 12-13 wins and push the Steelers for the AFC North in the end.
The Steelers have the current upper hand on the Ravens with a (7-0) record and a win booked on the Ravens, at Baltimore. The Steelers easy schedule stretch is ahead, and then it turns tougher when the Ravens turns easier post Week 12/the Thanksgiving game. We see the Steelers with 13-14 wins at this rate…a fight to the finish with the Ravens for the AFC North title.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- What happened to Diontae Johnson (1-6-0/3)? He got hurt and left the game for a bit, but still led all Steelers WRs in snaps with 41 (77%)…in fact, all three starting WRs played 41 snaps. It wasn’t a missing time thing.
It was simply…Ravens CB Jimmy Smith took him out. As good a game of coverage as you’ll see, and Smith is already a known excellent cover corner. Smith has allowed 12 completions all year on his WR…for 72 yards and no TDs. QBs are completing 48.0% of their passes against him for a 54.6 QB rating. Smith is a low-key NFL MVP/Defensive Player of the Year discussion. Ben knew it…he was barely looking towards Diontae when Smith was on him, which was most of the game. The Ravens have excellent coverage with all three of their CBs, and Ben was doing little against them until the 2nd-half. JuJu (7-67-0/8) started getting weakest coverage and Ben started going there late.
When in trouble, Ben was looking for Chase Claypool (5-42-1/9) but he fought top notch coverage as well. The couple shots Ben took deep was to Claypool and they weren’t close to being open. Ben started forcing it a bit to Claypool and he started working 2nd-half too. Diontae was getting open at times too, but it looked like Ben had written him off for the Jimmy Smith factor.
We’ve seen Diontae blow people away in 2020. We’ve seen the Ravens shutdown all passers except Patrick Mahomes and allowed mild garbage time to two other teams in blowouts. The simple answer is, for Diontae, he got taken out by great coverage and Ben didn’t force it. The Ravens haven’t allowed over 215 yards passing to a QB in their last three games (Burrow, Wentz, Ben).
I’m not scared off of Diontae for FF, but I will be Week 12 v. BAL. I won’t be Weeks 9-10-11 vs. DAL-CIN-JAX, a super-juicy stretch ahead…or pretty much the rest of the season besides Week 12 v. BAL. He’s a WR1-1.5 projection every non-bad matchup week.
Same for Chase Claypool, I wasn’t scared off by Week 7’s lower output game…he’s a solid WR2 with mega-upside week-to-week, which means he will have games with low output. All WRs, spare 2-3 of them, aren’t dropping 20+ PPR points every week. Claypool led the Steelers with 9 targets and one target negated for penalty.
JuJu is the random #3 option who might have good games or might not…depends upon what Ben wants. Ben has shown all 2020…Diontae is his fave (but Smith took that away this game), Claypool is his other fave, and JuJu is a nice guy to have as an option.
We’re so hanging on every play by ‘our’ players that when they have a bad game, by whatever means, we want to fire them – like Diontae after this game. Where are we going to go? Who is always amazing that you’re going to acquire simply? Going to make a clever, cheap trade for Davante Adams today?
We ‘feel’ about our fantasy players like when you coach your kids in a youth sport…you’re harder on your own kids. Why? Because you watch everything they do and hold them to a higher standard. If someone else’s kid is picking flowers in the outfield, you speak kindly and try to get their attention. If your kid makes a mental error, at age 6-17, you might yell and/or pull them aside and go through things exaggeratedly or heated to ‘fix them’. You saw what they did on the field of play because you watch your own kid like a hawk and overanalyze them after and make it unfun (but didn’t mean to…you think you’re helping!)– same treatment for your FF players. They are like your own kids, they really are. Pride of ownership. You’re often just like a helicopter parent of your FF-children – too high of expectations, too critical, too micro analyzing because you watch every single play with baited breath and they always disappoint (because they don’t score a TD every play)…and it seems like ‘everyone else’s kids/FF players are doing so much better than yours’…then you start trading too fast in frustration to teach them a lesson and you spiral down the rabbit hole chasing a satisfaction that doesn’t exist. There is no playing Fantasy Football without pain, regret, disappointment, bad matchups, rain, wind, bad schedule, injuries, etc.
Don’t be so hard on your kids… https://youtu.be/CFl4Yse0xuI
-- I’m a little more worried that Ben Roethlisberger (21-32 for 182 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) is evolving into a different type of QB and is more safe and not high-flying like he used to be…more than I am worried Diontae and Claypool aren’t really, really good at football.
All this WR firepower and he has one passing game over 270+ yards in a game this season. Four of his last five games have been under 240 passing yards – but he’s hitting the TDs…2.1 passing TDs per game. He’s turning into Ryan Tannehill minus the running ability.
Trying to predict where the heavy tally might go week-to-week could be a little maddening ahead, but the points are there so you just start the Pitt-duo (except against BAL) and just roll with the more highs than lows.
-- I’m worried about Lamar Jackson (13-28 for 208 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs, 16-65-0) because he hasn’t gone off in FF scoring anywhere like last year, but I have a feeling he’s about to start with some momentum/higher-level production.
He’s run the ball for 50+ yards in four of his last 5 games. The only time he didn’t is when they were manhandling the Bengals. Lamar cools his jets when they are rocking opponents, but the schedule ahead should have him pushing for offense and raiding his FF tallies as he goes.
Not my favorite NFL QB, but for fantasy…he might be on the verge of a nice ‘run’ the next few weeks.
He lost a TD potential (pass or run) on a fumble near the goal line early in this game. He also had a sweet 20-yard TD run called back on a penalty. He also was stopped near the goal line a few times trying to run it in. He was close to some sweeter FF numbers this game.
-- Here’s what I think is going to happen to the Ravens backfield ahead…
This loss, the KC loss, the almost inexplicable late loss the Eagles – I think John Harbaugh is about to make some changes for the road ahead. His team has to change. It has to get better…just like when they pulled the plug on Joe Flacco for Lamar Jackson…it was uncomfortable for many of us at the time. The old guard doesn’t get a ceremony and 21-gun salute…change just happens. It’s football.
With that, I gotta think Harbaugh knows the Ravens are not going to scare anyone with Mark Ingram as the lead back. The juice, the player to fear on the Ravens backfield is J.K. Dobbins (15-113-0, 1-8-0/2). In his first real heavy action as a pro, Dobbins ran for 7.5 yards per carry and 100+ yards against the highly rated Steelers run defense. He ran tough, he ran smart. He’s the most dangerous non-Lamar they have. I think you’ll see Dobbins leading the backfield more times than not the rest of this season…and then just slowly become the lead starter in short order – Harbaugh may use this performance vs. the Steelers to announce it this week.
And might I add three things…
1) Dobbins is running the ball better than Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, or Cam Akers this year/right now. He may end up the best runner of the group in the end, but I think Taylor will have his say over time.
2) It’s going to be sometimes disappointing in PPR because Lamar doesn’t toss it to the backs often.
3) But Dobbins might make up for that with several 150+ yards rushing games with several long plays. The set up is sitting there waiting for the Ravens to activate it more – Lamar runs to the outside and defensive ends freeze, start drifting outside to contain him and they leave WIDE OPEN gaps off tackle to run through because of FOL (Fear of Lamar)…and Dobbins can hit this better than Gus or Mark. Some huge plays and rushing tallies coming once they change it over to JKD as the lead.
Could be this week…could be in 2021. Who knows the minds of NFL head coaches?
Gus Edwards (16-87-1) is a solid supporting cast member, not the lead the Ravens need.
-- Here’s what I think MIGHT happen to the Ravens WR group going forward…
I think there’s a growing issue with Marquise Brown (1-3-1/3) and Jason Katz spoke of it on our Sunday Morning Q&A – Brown is not a true #1, he’s Henry Ruggs/Mecole Hardman/DeSean Jackson. I think the additional piece to that is – I think ‘Hollywood’ has all of Antonio Brown’s attitude and none of his production/skills to go with at this point.
There’s a reason Baltimore drafted Devin Duvernay and James Proche this past draft…two anti-Hollywood’s.
There’s a reason Baltimore is entertaining Dez Bryant on their practice squad but didn’t chase Antonio Brown. There’s probably going to be a reason why they are going to trade for a legit WR from somewhere on trade deadline day.
The reason is ‘trouble’ (attitude, durability, etc.) with Marquise Brown. I would not be surprised if they traded Brown before the deadline in order to get a veteran WR…or, now, and Offensive Tackle.
I think Harbaugh trusts Duvernay more than Brown already, and he may realize he needs to separate Brown from Lamar, for Lamar’s own good…but Lamar is going to pout about it.
Also, Harbaugh is desperate to add another TE too…not a great sign for Mark Andrews (3-32-0/6) upside. I’d like to see Evan Engram to the Ravens…
-- The Ravens have the #1 DST in FF PPG in most scoring formats. Their schedule is AMAZING the rest of the way. They may go wire-to-wire at the top from here.
The Steelers-DST is top 5 as well, but some of that is their huge game vs. CLE a couple weeks ago. They’re still nice otherwise but not as good as people think. They’ve allowed 24 or more points to opponents in three of their last 4 games.
However, the Steelers schedule is pretty hot the rest of the way too. They’ll finish top 5 among DSTs in the end, I’d project.
Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = Diontae
41 = Claypool
41 = JuJu
31 = J Conner
08 = J Samuels
01 = McFarland
54 = JK Dobbins
26 = Gus Edwards
77 = Mq Brown
59 = Snead
37 = Duvernay
33 = Boykin
03 = Proche
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8 Game Analysis: Dolphins 28, Rams 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The debut of Tua feels pretty good on the surface…Miami got an upset win, and all seems right with the world, the football media delights in saying Tua won his debut. We’ll get to Tua in the next section…because he was awful.
That’s how well the Miami defense played…Tua was a disaster but a defensive score, then a punt return TD, 4 turnovers forced…mostly deep in Rams territory…helped save the day and the defense also extinguished any Rams hopes of a comeback late, stuffing, confusing, and intimidating Jared Goff most of the day.
The Dolphins are now (4-3) and could be headed to the playoffs if Tua doesn’t ruin them. Miami is now (9-7) in their last 16 regular season games. The San Francisco 49ers are (9-7) in their last 16 games as well. Miami projects, for us, to be (8-7) this season going into their Week 17 game at Buffalo, which if the Bills don’t need it…it could launch Miami into the wild card. I’d also not bet anything on Miami to go to the playoffs because Tua is not ready to carry this team or even go along for the ride.
The Rams fall to (5-3) as they start to sink to the .500 team that they are. They could lose their next three games in a row: SEA, at TB, SF. The Rams are a better bet to get to 9 wins and a wild card than Miami, despite the Dolphins resounding win here.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Tua Tagovailoa (12-22 for 93 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 2-0-0) made his debut and the reviews are as if Twitter or Facebook deemed a review as news you are not allowed to see for your own good. Any mainstream reports of this game gloss over Tua and go right to Miami winning and Jared Goff flopping. You’re not allowed to see or think about or consider the truth of another terrible scouting position/call from the entirety of football. That flawed scouting/analysis by the media was the belief teams needed to ‘Tank for Tua’ (spoken of for a year+ ahead of the draft) and that he was the best QB prospect that they had all ever seen in recent years…even better than their precious Sam Darnold, if you can believe that!
If you watched Justin Herbert get thrust into a starting role 15 minutes before game time in Week 2 and nearly go and knock off the defending Super Bowl champs and if you watched Joe Burrow put the Bengals on his back and nearly win his debut vs. the Chargers Week 1, followed by a string of 300+ yard passing games since and a couple of games won already – this (Tua Week 8) was the opposite of all that from the real/good rookie QBs.
If you saw Ben DiNucci vs. the Eagles on Sunday Night Football…then you have an idea of the quality of Tua’s debut Week 8. Only Tua got staked to a very quick 28-7 lead that he had 99.3% nothing to do with and hid behind it…versus DiNucci having to try and win in a deficit with a defense attacking him all game.
Miami/analysts can already start discussing the fatal, organizational crushing decision of taking Tua over Justin Herbert and the decade of impact that might have, or the ‘what might have been’ of it.
Tua looked exactly as I feared here – he looked like a backup who was too short with a lack of real mobility and not enough arm down the field. He actually, looked worse than I feared – most of Tua’s passes were no-look/one-look reads and fire to shorts spots where someone was supposed to be, and most of them off the mark by a lot.
The decision to go to Tua right now is going to be a massive mistake, compared to just sticking with Ryan Fitzpatrick…a decision that may ruin Brian Flores’ career, in a sense. This current Dolphins team had a chance to be a playoff team, but with Tua they are more likely going to fail…there’s no way Tua can drive an offense and lead comebacks in deficits in 2020. There will be a point ahead where people will see this and wonder if Fitz should go back in…and I don’t think Brian Flores is going to listen or change. You can’t tell him what to do, you don’t know football like he does. It’s perfectly logical to have an offense led by Tua and Myles Gaskin and expect to compete in this highly offensive era…so, don’t question it…no more than people were allowed to wonder why Flores kept insisting Kalen Ballage was a lead back of the future last year. Flores never changed off the concept last year, and he won’t change off the Tua decision now…it would be too embarrassing to. In fact, he doesn’t see anything wrong – I mean, they won the game…right??!!!
Tua now makes Miami one of the top offenses for your DST to face…a positive for Arizona-DST Week 9, and LAC-DST Week 10. Denver-DST will be a streamer Week 11. When a team gets Miami down, then you’ll see the folly of having Tua in right now.
Could it have been nerves? Sure. There had to be nerves, but Justin Herbert shook those off at kickoff. Joe Burrow looked pretty confident and in control after his first series Week 1. Tua never kicked into another gear here, and it will become more obvious once he’s put in a position of needing to carry things. He got very lucky this game that Miami’s defense and special teams got to such a large lead so Tua could hide behind it.
Tua had 13 drives, and he led a TD drive after a turnover put him on the Rams 33, and later when he was on the Rams 1-yard line after a strip sack fumble by the defense. Their longest drive of the game was 7 plays, 42 yards (and resulted in a punt).
2 TDs (all short drives/set up by turnovers), 1 fumble away (by Tua), one kneel down before half, and nine punts – congrats on tanking for Tua.
I’m laying it on heavy because I was mocked by some in the scouting community for being anti-Tua back in January…that I didn’t know what I was talking about pointing out his arm issues and lack of footspeed issues. Tua is left-handed Sam Darnold…smart, nice person, belongs in the NFL…but as a backup…can have decent games if they get lucky with some yards after catch by receivers or they have some powerhouse weapons. Whether Tua ends up a ‘C’ grade or ‘D’ grade QB…or even he grinds his way to a ‘B’ grade QB over time…he’s nowhere near Herbert or Burrow, that’s not even debatable, and it wasn’t back in January 2020 either.
The Tua issue is a problem all ‘down ballot’ for fantasy…
Preston Williams (2-15-0/5) looks like he’d rather be a thousand other places right now. Tua will get chances for years, like Sam Darnold does…while Preston is about to become a backup/traded away by Miami in 2021, I suspect – he’s not a grinder like Flores likes. And for Flores’ part there is no development of any of his pass game weapons in two years.
I bet Flores does the typical ex-Patriots coaching thing in 2021…he’ll sign a Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan, Deion Branch type…whomever he can find tied to the Patriots once, he’ll sign. He’ll want WRs who do things ‘his way’. Playmakers need not apply.
DeVante Parker (1-3-1/2) they are stuck with because they made a massive mistake of signing him to a huge contract…because he was good for like 6 games over his first five seasons in the NFL, but they were mostly good games as his free agency was due and Miami ‘saw’ things and paid him huge, and it’s a waste.
Williams and Parker are mostly dead for FF with Tua in. Plus, all the tight ends are more dead than before. The typical Tua game will be 150-175 yards passing and 0-1 TDs. They won’t be a garbage time team because their defense will keep them in games that they’ll try to win like 17-13, etc. This is bad news for FF production from the skill position players…until Ryan Fitzpatrick takes back over.
-- Speaking of the Miami-DST…they looked great here. They hit Jared Goff 8 times, sacked him twice, forced him to cough up two fumbles, picked him twice…it wasn’t so much that those are amazing pressure numbers, it was their coverage in the passing game that was key…a stunning 13 passes defended they were credited with.
This was one part an engaged, active defense playing with two excellent cover corners. And the other part, the two sacks produced fumbles that bounced their way and they had a couple nice picks…and it was all contained, mostly, to the first half. Miami was solid in the second half but that was bolstered by a strong 1st-half of turnovers, etc.
I will be interested to see how the Miami-DST fares against at ARI and LAC the next two weeks – they face two teams with higher-end QBs but also teams with O-Line issues. I’ve been eyeing Weeks 11-13 more with Miami-DST…at DEN, at NYJ, CIN in that stretch.
The Miami-DST is a good+ unit but will have little support from its offense…so a sketchy start vs. good offenses and nice against the bad offenses.
-- The Rams looked like one of those ‘bad’ offenses at times, but it wasn’t as bad as I thought. Honestly, this Miami defensive effort might have been somewhat hot air/overblown. The Rams scored early to take a 7-0 lead…they didn’t seem all that rattled. Then the Dolphins forced a turnover on Goff and set up an easy score to tie it 7-7.
What gets lost is, after that 7-7 tie, the Rams went right back down the field and were in the red zone on a scoring drive when Goff was sacked, fumbled, and Miami scooped and sacred a 78-yard TD. It was almost 14-7 Rams midway through the 1st-quarter, but the key red zone turnover made it 14-7 Miami. The Dolphins D held the Rams the next series, LAR punted and Jakeem Grant returned it for a TD and it was like a 1-2 sucker punch. Before the half, Miami sacked Goff and forced another fumble, setting them up a yard away from a TD and a 28-7 shocking Miami lead.
It wasn’t like the Rams couldn’t move the ball…471 yards of offense, 7-of-17 on 3rd-down, a 36-to-24 time of possession (helped by all the D/ST TDs). Goff threw 61 times, like two games worth of drop backs (due to the quick 28-7 deficit) and was only sacked twice, only hit 8 times (good but he did drop back 63 times).
To Miami’s credit, Goff seemed rattled at times and easily confused by coverage. In the end, I’m still not sure if this was a bad Rams performance or a great Dolphins performance or if it was just one of those weird games where things all went one way fast and it’s not indicative of much of anything.
-- The 61 pass attempts allowed Robert Woods (7-85-1/8) and Cooper Kupp (11-110-0/21) to have big games but note…this was like two games worth of attempts in one due to the nature of it. You should look at these numbers and cut them in half essentially.
If you cut in half, they fall in line with a growing trend…Woods and Kupp are part of a designed WRBC for the past several weeks…like this team's run game is RBBC. No one can be a sustained WR1 or RB1 because of touch counts. It’s a spot to consider selling hot on Kupp or Woods, if you saw the window of opportunity. Not a must sale, but maybe a big opportunity to over-sell.
-- I don’t know how bad (or not) the Darrell Henderson (8-47-0, 1-11-0/2) injury is…but I know this – if Henderson had stayed healthy and this was a normal game, he would have run for 100+ yards easy. He was killing it before he went out.
I think Sean McVay is getting comfortable with Henderson as the key to his offense/ground game. But whether that will be FF-fruitful, we’ll see.
-- Miami SAF Eric Rowe (7 tackles, 5 PDs, 1 INT) had an amazing 5 PDs this game. It’s rare to see 2 in a game from any defender. Getting 3 PDs is pretty unique…so, 5 is pretty eye-catching. What makes it more eye-catching is the fact that he has 8 PDs in his last three games.
Rowe is 6th in the NFL in passes defended on the season now, after this big number. He’s also the #11 DB in IDP PPG (FantasyPros scoring) since Week 4.
Miscast as a CB for years, now he’s a starting safety and fulfilling our nice scouting grades on him coming out of Utah.
Another Dolphin defender (that they must have used CFM for to rebuild this defense) starting to fulfill his promise/my scouting grades…Emmanuel Ogbah (2 tackles, 1 sack, 1 PD).
Ogbah has 5.0 sacks in his past 4 games. He’s 6th in the NFL in sacks (6.0 sacks) on the season right now. I remember making the case as to why everyone was going bonkers over Jadeveon Clowney when Ogbah was there, much cheaper, in the same NFL Draft. Ogbah had pretty stout Combine/athleticism numbers too.
Clowney and Ogbah are in their 7th season…Clowney portrayed as a god, while Ogbah has been a non-name with three teams so far.
In their careers…
32.0 sacks = Clowney
24.0 = sacks = Ogbah
The past two seasons:
11.5 sacks = Ogbah
3.0 sacks = Clowney
Earnings:
$50M career earnings = Clowney
$13M career earnings = Ogbah (Clowney will about make as much in 2020 as Ogbah has his entire 7 years)
Don’t try and tell me the NFL is bad at business decisions or bad at scouting…
-- Lost in Tua and the Miami defense…the Rams defense didn’t allow much of anything. The two offensive TDs they did give up were short field off turnovers, AND they did this without Jalen Ramsey playing most of the game (out with injury in game).
The Rams-DST has been good for FF mostly this season, but you should probably bail on them as a primary now – a bye Week 9, Russell Wilson Week 10, at Tom Brady Week 11, vs. SF Week 12 is fine, but then Arizona/Kyler Week 13.
Snap Counts of Interest:
44 = Preston Williams
29 = DeV Parker
17 = I Ford
16 = JK Grant
43 = Gaskin
08 = Breida
07 = Malcolm Perry (rookie…the old Navy QB)
57 = Higbee
52 = Everett
57 = M Brown
20 = Akers
18 = Darr Henderson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8: Game Analysis: Falcons 25, Panthers 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
When Carolina took a 14-6 lead in the early 2nd-quarter, after Curtis Samuel’s second TD of the game…I thought this was in the bag for the Panthers. God love ‘em…the Falcons never fail to do the opposite of whatever I feel with them. When I endorse them, they lay eggs…when I think they’re going to get crushed – they win. Heck, how many times have any of us said/thought this year mid-game…well, there’s no way the Falcons can blow this lead in this game!!
If there is a team in the NFL I despise more, because I can never figure them out, than the Falcons…I don’t know who it is.
Whatever.
The Falcons on a solo night game are like fingers on a chalkboard for me. Hard to watch live…hard to watch back on tape. But they won here and kept their playoff hopes alive. If the Falcons win Week 9 hosting Denver and get to (3-6), there will be some enthusiasm for a week…and then they will get destroyed the rest of the way. Four games with the Saints (2) and Bucs (2) ahead…and KC, LV, LAC in-between for good measure. They may lose out starting Week 11…which means I just thought something bad about Atlanta, which means the opposite is true, which means Atlanta will win out, go (10-6) and go on to win the Super Bowl.
Or…they’ll finish (4-12) more likely.
One or the other. Oh, and Matt Schaub was the Super Bowl MVP in that upside scenario.
The Panthers blew a golden opportunity to stay in the playoff race. This loss was probably terminal…at KC, TB the next two weeks means they’ll be (3-7) heading down the stretch. A 6-win season is where we project them. Three close losses in a row the last three weeks has derailed this Cinderella story.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I should start off by talking about the ‘WTF’ Todd Gurley v. Brian Hill situation, but I’ll save that ‘til next because I have more important matters to discuss…
You know what I’m about to discuss.
Can I get a witness – is Curtis Samuel (4-31-1/4, 3-23-1) not better than, and more important to the team than D.J. Moore (2-55-0/6)? As I have been trying to promote for two years now! Samuel is more talented and has now become more productive and critical to operations by midseason 2020.
Besides my self-congratulation, I have to also mock everyone who thought otherwise…
1) How was Curtis Samuel not being used as a running back, a real RB, SLASH real wide receiver before all this? Does he not look great running the ball? I don’t mean as a lead back, I just mean 3-7 carries and 3-7 targets a game – like get the ball in his hands!!
How stupid are…
Norv Turner
Ron Rivera
Mike Shula
Scott Turner
And how stupid was the current staff in weeks 1-3 of this season? But mostly the staff before them were the dummies. THE GUY WAS A TALENTED RUNNING BACK IN THE BIG TEN…how did it not dawn on anyone to use him as a Swiss Army Knife weapon…one of the most unique, dangerous weapons in all of football…as he lied generally dormant for 3+ years.
Did the football analysts crow about it all along? Did they want Curtis to cook? No…they rushed D.J. Moore to the high-end of fantasy draft rankings and talked about how bad a camp Curtis Samuel had and whether they should cut/trade Samuel.
I’ve sounded like a lunatic about Samuel for three years, questioning my own sanity some days…giving up on him for FF because I thought the NFL had ‘won again’. Beaten me down…broke my spirit.
I’m rarely wrong about football assessments/scouting – just temporarily ‘not right’ for the moment. I might not know what weeks to play Samuel or Diontae Johnson or maybe I favor WRs who always get hurt on their first touch of games in 2020 – but I know scouting, talent, and I put in the work to keep watching all games to stay in tune – don’t question my ability to see talent. Question the NFL’s ability to see it.
Next stop on this ride…we’re about to cross over into a debate on Curtis Samuel as being more important/better than Robby Anderson (5-48-0/8). Robby has scored 1 TD this season…Week 1. Samuel has 3 TDs in his last two games.
Touches the last three weeks (rushes + catches combined):
23 = C Samuel
15 = Robby A
11 = D.J. Moore
It’s game-back-on with CSam for fantasy!!
-- So, Todd Gurley (18-46-1) started…was terrible…and then all the sudden Brian Hill (11-55-0, 2-9-0/3) came into the game with a spark and it seemed like a change at the top of the depth chart was under way.
But…this is the NFL. They are allergic to success. They are slaves to ‘names’ and the ‘draft pick number’ and ‘what we had planned’, so Hill disappeared down the stretch and Gurley ended up taking 18 mostly useless carries (2.55 yards per carry) but did fall into the end zone.
Why does Gurley keep sucking, but scoring TDs? Because I don’t own him in fantasy. I can’t get David Johnson into the end zone if I took a Uzi and deployed it on the defense, at the snap, on a goal line handoff to DJ by the Texans (he’d trip over a fatally wounded Defensive Tackle at the goal line and fall backwards, slipping on blood and guts…I imagine) but Gurley can’t not score a TD every week.
If the Falcons don’t dump Gurley before the NFL deadline, the NFL is another level stupider than previously thought. Gurley is averaging 3.8 yards per carry, for the 2nd-season in a row, and is no impact in the passing game – but somehow has 8 TDs in half a 2020 season. Leonard Fournette has 5 TDs in the past two years combined.
Brian Hill has FF value if the Falcons pull the trigger on rebuilding, but they’re so stupid – they think they’re in the playoff hunt now.
-- Calvin Ridley (3-42-0/4) may miss a little time. Christian Blake (2-44-0/2) played the snaps in Ridley’s place.
Is Blake an interesting get while Ridley is out? https://youtu.be/C6YfJZ9hxLQ
I’ll look at something else besides Blake for Week 9.
…which means, Blake has 19 catches for 448 yards next week.
-- Hayden Hurst (5-54-0/7) becomes more of a ‘winner’ with Ridley down. Hurst has 50+ yards in a game in four of his last 5 games. He’s a real midrange TE1.
-- Matt Ryan (21-30 for 281 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) has a 4 TD/0 INT game in Raheem Morris’s first game as ATL head coach. He’s had 1 TD/1 INT total in 2 games since. Ignoring the 4 TD/0 INT game of Week 6 vs. the disaster that is the Vikings pass defense, Ryan has 2 TDs/3 INTs total since Week 3…5 games…two TD passes…he’s been more joke than FF-helpful.
-- Teddy Bridgewater (15-23 for 176 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 5-30-0) missed a critical drive with a hit to the head and lost out on key snaps for more FF output. It started raining too, putting more downward pressure on his FF tally. A great matchup…and it was unfulfilled.
-- How great has rookie Jeremy Chinn (10 tackles, 1 PD, 1-28-0) been this season? He’s likely to be in the top 12 among DBs in PPG in IDP after this week…bolstered by his 10-tackle game here PLUS a fake punt for a 28-yard jaunt.
Hmmm…now, who was it who said the Arizona Cardinals were idiots for not taking an Offensive Lineman in the top 10 and then just taking the similar/better Isaiah Simmons prospect in Jeremy Chinn in the 2nd-round? I can’t remember…
Oh, wait…Simmons played 5 whole snaps in an OT game last week, so he’s special. He can’t even get on the field for the injury-decimated Cardinals, as a ‘holy’ top 10 draft pick. Talk about a bust/wasted draft pick. Again, never question the NFL…they know more than us common fans. And, yet, the analysts still talk about Simmons and don’t even know Chinn exists or know he’s doing what he is doing – a Defensive Rookie of the Year potential candidate.
Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = DJ Moore
45 = Robby A
41 = C Samuel
58 = Julio
39 = Gage
38 = Blake
23 = Ridley
09 = Zaccheaus
36 = Gurley
25 = Br Hill
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Chiefs 43, Broncos 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The last two times these teams have met, it’s been cold and snowy…and both times the Chiefs handed the Broncos, specifically Drew Lock, their asses. It’s not worth writing a lot of words about…the Chiefs killed Denver in every phase…running, passing, defense, special teams, etc. Denver isn’t in KC’s class and won’t be close until they replace Drew Lock…but that’s easier said than done.
KC is now (6-1) and heading towards an epic showdown Week 12 at Tampa Bay. If the NFL doesn’t move that game to Sunday Night or Monday Night…what are we even doing? With no fans in many places, it’s easy to change the schedule.
Denver is now (2-4) and likely headed to 4-5 wins at best. A good team that has no chance to shine due to its QB. They did it to themselves.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Hard to assess KC’s proper feelings on their true plans for Clyde Edwards-Helaire (8-46-1, 1-17-0/4) and Le’Veon Bell (6-39-0) based off this game. This one was over before it started, so why reveal your hand? By the end, Dwayne Washington was getting work in a blowout.
My notes/thoughts on this RB duo this day…
1) None of us knows the true plan ahead…we are blindly speculating.
2) All the words and actions seem to be CEH as the lead but Le’Veon playing near 50-50, and either could get hot and be the guy that day.
3) Most people think Le’Veon is going to take this over…the same way people believe/d Leonard Fournette will/would dispatch Ronald Jones. The fallacy of that, potentially, is that we think Le’Veon is the Le’Veon of days gone by…he was just locked away by the mean old NY Jets and now finally free.
We all thought that with LeSean McCoy, David Johnson, Leonard Fournette upon their change of teams.
What if the simple truth is – Le’Veon is not THAT Le’Veon anymore and will just be a nice piece to have to go with CEH, but not better than CEH? Are you sure 2020 Le’Veon is better than 2020 CEH? 2013-2015 Le’Veon might have been, but does that guy exist anymore?
4) When I watched Bell’s touches here, I didn’t see any amazing spark or pop differently than CEH. Bell was running normal, a bit tentative…but that was probably the ground conditions.
I think this is too early and/or complicated to call/project.
If the Jets game gets out of hand Week 8 (and they both sit much of the 2nd-half), and they split Week 9, and there’s a BYE Week 10, and they are at top run defense Tampa Week 12…when do you use Le’Veon with confidence between Weeks 8-12? Week 11 at Las Vegas…then you have to assume off of the BYE Le’Veon becomes ‘the man’? More likely, they’ll still be splitting the backfield by then.
If you have to wait past Week 12 to even dream that Le’Veon will take over and be FF ‘the man’, putting CEH behind him…that’s a long wait and a lot of worry, like trying to figure out when to start Leonard Fournette week to week right now.
-- Patrick Mahomes (15-23 for 200 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) has had two weaker FF games back-to-back, due to weather. FF players tend to believe last week is the undisputed future of things that will happen, and two weeks in a row is a super-strong trend of what will happen in the universe...which means Mahomes might be able to be discussed in a deal right now, if you have the firepower to pull it off.
Week 6 in the rain with BUF and then Week 7 at the first super-cold and snow game of 2020…it’s artificially keeping Mahomes’ FF scoring down.
Weeks 11-15 will be the best late season weather opportunity he has ever had in his short career.
Week 11 at LV/dome, Week 12 at TB, Week 13 in KC v. DEN, Week 14 at MIA, Week 15 at NO/dome.
Two Florida and two dome road trips…not bad.
Same goes for Tyreek Hill (6-55-1/10), who has had muted FF in the cold/snow/rain but could be getting ready to race back as a top FF WR like usual.
-- Drew Lock’s (24-40 for 254 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) problem is beyond the weather.
3 TDs/5 INTs in his last 6 starts back to 2019. He’s averaging 0.5 TD passes per game for most of his NFL career. I think this is Lock’s final week as the Broncos starter if he lays another egg.
Brett Rypien isn’t much of an upgrade…
Tim Patrick (3-44-0/4) is being held hostage in all of this QB mess. He is playing good ball, but between the QBs and now a concussion…he’s just a flyer still. You’d like to sit on him for -- at ATL, at LV Weeks 9-10…bad pass Ds in a dome climate. If he’s cleared…and who knows who his QB will be.
-- If Drew Lock goes, that’s the end of the Albert Okwuegbunam (7-60-0/7) excitement. He is getting bolstered by Drew Lock using him when he’s on the field. He only played 40% of the snaps (Fant 70%), but Albert O. led the team with 7 targets (tied with Fant).
When Lock goes, Albert O. is going back down a hole. But if Lock stays…he’s a TE2 with an upside option.
-- Phillip Lindsay (9-79-0) started this game, despite Melvin Gordon (17-68-1, 2-12-0/4) returning to action after a week out. Of course, then Lindsay took a hit, got a concussion and helped re-launch Gordon.
We can never be satisfied with Lindsay. The ‘too small’ thing is catching up to him. Hard to be a 180+ pound lead back…and Lindsay is reinforcing the fears with constant injury it seems.
I don’t know who will be the Broncos RB that matters in 2021. That RB is likely not on the roster.
Lindsay will be a great passing game back for the Patriots down the road…
-- What happened to everyone whining about the Chiefs-DST giving up too much/scoring FF-low a few weeks ago vs. Las Vegas? A monster FF-day here, and the Jets and Panthers both at KC are coming up.
Just prepare for what you’re going to do Week 10 on with this DST.
Week 10 = BYE (Miami-DST vs. LAC on the schedule change ruins this schedule pairing perfection)
Week 11 = at Las Vegas…bad matchup or revenge? (Miami-DST at DEN)
Week 12 = at TB…makes life tough for Brady or he Air Raids them? (Miami-DST at NYJ)
Weeks 13-14 look nice with DEN and at MIA.
Snap Counts of Interest:
46 = Gordon
18 = Freeman
14 = Lindsay
27 = CEH
17 = Le’Veon
10 = D’Andre Washington
01 = Darr Williams
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Packers 35, Texans 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game was over pretty much when it started. It was 21-0 at the half, and 28-7 going into the 4th-quarter. Houston scored a late garbage TD to make a bit closer than it was. Green Bay was cruising, toying with Houston when they wanted to.
Green Bay is now (5-1), as they beat another patsy team. Green Bay’s regular season schedule has been awesome for two seasons now. The schedule is set up for Green Bay to get to 12-13 wins…and home field advantage for them would be huge with the weather.
Houston mails in another loss. They’re now (1-6) and the schedule might have them win a few games ahead, but it’s probably too far gone to get back into a playoff race. They could win their next 3-4 in-a-row and make things interesting – at JAX, at CLE, NE, at DET. It’s a favorable stretch but likely Houston is not strong enough to take advantage and will probably sell off players next week anyway. 6-7 wins is possible for the Texans with a little luck.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Whaddya know? Aaron Jones out…and Jamaal Williams (19-77-1, 4-37-0/5) has a Jones-like game/output. All the #1 RBs of note going into their free agent/final season got big new deals…but not Aaron Jones. I don’t think he’ll be back with the Packers, for fiscal reasons on top of most RBs could come in and do what Jones does.
A.J. Dillon (5-11-0) being drafted was probably part of that not seeing Jones as worth the price in the future idea. AJD got some extra work here with Jones out, but he didn’t do much with it. He looks very erratic, lost, rookie-like still. Nothing impressive on tape yet at the NFL level. When the Packers lead got larger and larger…Jamaal stayed in. Expect heavy Jamaal this week if/with Jones out.
-- I wanted to see how close to normal Robert Tonyan (2-32-0/2) was moving around like after spraining his ankle last week and playing through it but missing multiple practices for rehab leading up to Week 7’s game.
Two things…
1) Tonyan looked pretty normal. Had a nice diving catch in the game. I didn’t see any hobbling, slowing.
2) The Pack got up big and throttled back his snaps a little bit, smartly. No reason to have him push it for no reason.
This week we’ll see if Tonyan is more 100%/practicing and has a better FF game.
-- David Johnson (14-42-0, 4-42-1/4) saw a season high 4 targets!!!! How smart!!! If you think Houston figured out the most obvious thing in the world (DJ is a receiving gem of gems at RB in the NFL), then you would be wrong. His passes came mostly in the big deficit and after Deshaun Watson was searching elsewhere downfield but was flushed quickly and settled or desperately went to an/any open man (DJ).
When Watson drops back to pass, and some QBs are like this, he has no predisposition or real awareness of the RB as a slick check down option – whereas like Drew Brees or Philip Rivers are just setting you up looking downfield and then they quick dump it…they’re aware of it at all times as the safest throw, and with D.J. it would be a 225+ pound block of granite out in space…but who wants that? We need more up the middle runs with DJ! I don’t believe Houston figured out anything on DJ in the passing game here…just random bump in targeting because of the deficit.
Trade him as you need to…he’s just another 12-16 carries for low ypc (because his O-Line stinks) and 1-2 catches per game, and you hope he scores a TD. He will score 10 TDs this season, and thus be a solid RB2, near RB1 in raw tally of FF points.
-- Allen Lazard (DNP) is back practicing this week and might be active for Week 8, but I’d guess more Week 9 for his activation from core muscle surgery.
Thinking about getting him ahead of time? A nice #2 TD producer across from Davante Adams ahead? Makes sense.
However, what worries me is the Packers are looking for WRs to add before the trade deadline…specifically Will Fuller (3-35-1/6), who Jaire Alexander shutdown mostly in this game. Fuller would just muddy this whole thing up for Lazard, who will have a tough enough time getting good touches with just he and Adams (since Adams gets 117 targets a game with Rodgers).
The Packers seem bent on adding a WR, which is smart…but it doesn’t help the Lazard story for 2020 ROS.
-- I could see the Texans trading Brandin Cooks (7-60-0/9) and/or Randall Cobb (8-95-0/10) as well.
Cobb back to Green Bay seems to make a ton of sense, no?
Cobb has 5.7 catches for 53.0 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game his last 3 games. As the Texans get down/can’t stop anyone, so their passing game numbers are climbing in garbage/hurry up…good for Watson, good for Cobb, and good for Cooks, who has been FF-amazing the past 3 games with 8.0 rec., 96.3 yards, 0.67 TDs per game.
Since Week 5, Cooks is the #7 WR in PPR PPG.
-- GB rookie UDFA LB Krys Barnes (8 tackles, 1.0 sacks) has had a surreal run of tackles per snap played this season.
168 snaps played, 43 total tackles…a tackle every 3.91 snaps played. And it’s not just one big game/outlier driving the numbers.
A typical amount of snaps for a player to play the entire game is around 60-65 or so. Barnes’s season pace would project 15 +/- tackles in a 60-snap effort game.
Barnes played 40% of the snaps here…fighting a shoulder injury, leaving the game early. He was on pace for over 18 total tackles through fuzzy math.
Barnes has started the last 4 games, but only played close to a full game once (Week 6, 10 tackles). He was a rotational LB at first, then a Week 6 real starter, but got hurt late and left and is fighting that injury still.
I keep mentioning him because his internals/metrics for tackles is amazing, but he hasn’t had a chance to get consistency yet. If he does, this could be a ‘wow’ for IDP.
-- The Green Bay Packers-DST is starting to get my attention for FF…in a look/search through the bottom tier/unclaimed DSTs in many leagues.
I’m looking at that Week 10-15 stretch that keeps getting more favorable as we go…
Week 10 = v. JAX…with Minshew dying, along with the team.
Week 11 = at IND, Rivers highly turnover prone
Week 12 = v. Foles, the bad Bears running game
Week 13 = v. Philly’s corrupted O-Line.
Week 14 = at DET is solid
Week 15 = v. CAR…not so bad, and in the cold likely.
Six games, four in colder weather potentially (to their favor)
Week’s 8-9 with MIN minus Cook, maybe, and at SF without Mostert and Deebo, maybe – GB might not be so bad now right through it? In a deep sleeper, semi-desperate way?
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = Dav Johnson
20 = Duke J
55 = Jamaal W
14 = AJ Dillon
31 = Tonyan
31 = M Lewis
20 = Sternberger
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Browns 37, Bengals 34
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Several weeks ago, the Browns got a two-score lead on the Bengals in a TNF game, but the scrappy Bengals would cut it to a one score lead soon after, and then the Brownies would push back up by two scores, and back and forth it went between a 1-2 score lead for Cleveland with the Bengals scoring late to cut the game/the win to one score for the Browns. The Browns were the better team and won the game. Soon after that they beat the GREAT Dallas Cowboys and that then convinced football society that the Browns were for real.
Several weeks later, this game, the Browns needed a last second miracle throw and catch to defeat the Bengals missing a few players to injury, including their top corner, in Week 7. The Browns are not ‘getting better’.
The Browns aren’t even that good -- they just got a bunch of love for beating what was then thought to be a GREAT Dallas Cowboys team. The Browns are (5-2) and are a bigger fraud than the (5-2) Chicago Bears. We see Cleveland winding up at 7-8 wins, but 9 wins is possible…they’re absolutely, unquestionably a better team without Odell Beckham Jr. -- losing OBJ right here, may have saved their season from collapse. It might save, or slow, Baker Mayfield’s career decline perception among the masses. Addition by subtraction.
The Bengals are horrible…except they have Joe Burrow, who is great…a modern-day/better Joe Montana. Burrow breathes life into this team and franchise. The Bengals will be lucky to win 3 games this season. They need to lose out, fire Zac Taylor, hire Carolina O-C Joe Brady (Burrow’s QB coach at LSU) and try to make themselves a real franchise again.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- So, OBJ is gone…good. Now what? Where does Baker Mayfield go for targeting among non-RBs?
I think my pecking order projection is…
1) Jarvis Landry (5-48-0/6) -- #1 in the short term. The longest on-field relationship is with Landry. I don’t believe Landry goes to some new level, just that he’ll be stable/solid/WR2-like.
2) Austin Hooper (DNP) – When he returns. Their connection was growing before the freak medical issue/surgery and he’ll be back Week 9-10 most likely.
*Harrison Bryant (4-56-2/5) – Until Hooper returns, it’s Bryant #2…as we saw this game. Not like a new Travis Kelce or anything, just a reliable guy who Baker can count on…and their connection was showing back in Weeks 1-2. But when Hooper is back, Hooper will lead and a lot of ’12 personnel’ will allow Bryant to play 30-40% of the snaps and be a mediocre TE2 and #4-5 on this listing.
3) Rashard Higgins (6-110-0/6) – is the Travis Fulgham for Baker Mayfield. Not flashy. Not overly athletic, but super-reliable and makes plays. Baker and Higgins have been close friends for years, but we never ever see it on the field for any sustained time. In the 2nd-half of this game…we saw some ‘it’ between them. Potential that Higgins becomes the #1, but I’d bet Landry-Hooper ahead of him until I see a real sustained change.
4) Donovan People-Jones (3-56-1/3) – a solid pro, but not ready for a primetime role. He’ll get some targets, but I don’t think sustainable FF action is headed his way yet. He’s not a superstar in waiting but more of a real solid guy to have in the group – reliable, good blocker, etc. He tries, where OBJ is out there for himself/not to get hit.
-- The Bengals current pecking order for Joe Burrow…
1-2) Wherever the mismatch is with Tyler Boyd (11-101-1/13) or Tee Higgins (5-71-1/5). Burrow likes, connects well with both as it is presented to him.
3) A.J. Green (7-82-0/13) has suddenly woken up. 7.5 catches for 89.0 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game the past two weeks. Burrow will use you if you respond, and AJG is not looking as horrible as he did Weeks 1-5, but is still not the AJG of old…and Burrow’s third look.
4) Everything else randomly.
-- Gio Bernard (13-37-0, 5-59-1/5) was headed for an FF dud, but got a TD catch to payoff for FF OK. This a bad O-Line to run behind, so it will be a grind for Gio to make FF-hay out of it Week 9. Joe Mixon is most likely out again, so another week of Gio before a bye gives Mixon an extra two weeks of rest.
-- Don’t look now but Baker Mayfield (22-28 for 297 yards, 5 TDs/1 INT) is starting to turn his career around. If you ignore the Steelers game abomination from the Browns, Baker is (5-1) otherwise this season with 14 TDs/5 INTs. 2 or more TDs passing in every game since Week 2, except the Steelers game (1).
The schedule ahead is not bad either…LV-BYE-HOU-PHI-JAC-TEN the next five weeks is favorable.
-- Don’t look now, but Joe Burrow (35-47 for 406 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 6-34-1) is already better than Baker Mayfield…is already a strong QB1 in fantasy.
If the matchup is favorable at all, Burrow is going to shine for FF. He’s struggled against top defenses…LAC-PIT-IND so far. He hasn’t struggled talent-wise, he just has no time to throw/gets hit all the time.
Burrow is sitting #14 in PPG in 4pts pass TD leagues, and #13 in 6pts pass TD leagues. He’s thrown for 300+ yards in a game in four of his last 5 games. He’s also the most sacked QB in the NFL.
-- Drew Sample (5-52-0/6) got back in the offensive flow…after disappearing for weeks. I didn’t see any great/special/encouraging – just he was there, and Burrow made use, as he does.
Snap Counts of Interest:
57 = Gio
19 = Perine
47 = Hunt
02 = D’Ernest
44 = Higgins
40 = Landry
36 = DPJ
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Football Team 25, Cowboys 3
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I almost forget that Washington went right down the field for a TD first series, the short TD that was called back with a penalty, moments later, on 4th & goal from the 1-yard line Dallas stuffed the play. Washington rammed it down their gullet from the opening drive…Dallas is lucky this score wasn’t worse than it ended up for them.
Whatever the score coulda/shoulda been, it was bad…bad…bad things for Dallas. If I claimed the Dallas Cowboys were the single worst team in the NFL this very second, worse than the Jets – you could not really fight back on it too hard. This Dallas situation has gone from bad to worse to now ridiculous. I’m betting against Dallas like I did the Jets the first several weeks of the season. It’s that bad. This was one of the worst games an NFL team has played this year…right up there with most every Dallas game quarters 1-3 this season and whatever the Patriots did Week 7.
Everyone has theories and consternation but this is Jerry Jones’s fault for hiring Mike McCarthy and Jerry is never going to change so the problem isn’t going to get fixed, it just looks better with Dak Prescott as the window dressing. There is no fixing this Dallas issue of 2020. Dallas will either lose out or maybe pick up a win somewhere along the way. It’s really bad right now…and do you think they’ll be coached up to playing better?
Washington has a chance to win the NFC East. The best defense in the division…which means they have a chance. I still bet on Philly to take it, but WFT has a chance. We project the FTs with 5-6 wins. Six wins could win the division maybe.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Who is Ben DiNucci (2-3 for 39 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs)? Is there hope with him?
No.
Not at all.
You’re wasting time even asking.
An undersized, stare down the first-read thrower with no real arm strength/arm whip on his throws. He’s the classic butt-kissing, yes sir/no sir, run the plays called head coach’s wet dream of a career 3rd-stringer that the O-C loves…studious, like a coach in the QB room. Gets to work early, stays late. Yada, Yada.
There’s just one problem with all the great employee attributes – he sucks as an NFL prospect.
Week 7 = Start the Eagles defense. Sell the Dallas offense.
Now, before you do all that…
I bet DiNucci is so bad that I bet Garrett Gilbert (recently grabbed off the Browns practice squad) is in finishing this game, and that Gilbert provides a minor spark and people start wondering if Dallas should just go with Gilbert for the ROS.
SuperFlex players – consider grabbing and sitting on Gilbert in deeper roster leagues. He may play from Week 9 on with all the Dallas weapons, Gilbert looked decent in the 2018-2019 preseason, had a decent run in the AAF in 2019. He’s not bad. He is exponentially better than DiNucci…and better than 2020 Andy Dalton. Dallas might even cut or trade Andy Dalton ahead of the trade deadline because ‘why keep him’?
I’m not saying Gilbert is going to be special or anything…just better than DiNucci or Dalton. He might provide a little spark to the team too.
-- The Dallas WRs in this game…
Amari Cooper (7-80-0/7)
CeeDee Lamb (0-0-0/5)
Michael Gallup (0-0-0/2)
I told you last week was the best hope to sell CeeDee hot. Now, you’re stuck.
Gallup is droppable in most redrafts. Lamb might be soon. Amari is a solid WR2 ROS.
If Dalton can get back ahead, it helps all of them to some degree…a lot of junk time coming. Gilbert might have a moment too.
-- The FT’s got up and just ran it out, which is smart…30 combined carries for Gibson-Barber. Thus, J.D. McKissic’s (5-35-0, 2-16-0/2) pass catching talents were not needed. He’s still a viable RB3 hope week-to-week in PPR.
-- McKissic might be a better PPR RB ahead than Ezekiel Elliott (12-45-0, 1-6-0/2)! My, how the mighty have fallen.
You almost just have to ride it out in FF with Zeke…he’s in a David Johnson-like situation – a lot of touches, bad O-Line, hope he gets in the end zone somehow. Since Week 4, Elliott is the #15 PPG RB in PPR…and falling. He’s an RB2 ahead. If you can trade him like an RB1…go for it. He’s not a zero…just not ‘Zeke’ anymore.
If Tony Pollard (8-16-0, 1-6-0/1) was shoved into the starting lineup…he’d have the same problems with the O-Line, QB play, head coach, etc.
-- Logan Thomas (4-50-1/4) is a viable TE for FF on matchups, and this was a good one…and he scored. End of story.
-- Because the Dallas offense is collapsing…don’t get stuck riding Greg Zuerlein (1/1 FG) out of habit. There has to be better options.
-- Cole Holcomb (5 tackles, 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 PD) may have turned his career arc around with his performance here. He started showing the total linebacker menace he could be with his high-end speed and tackle-ability in this game.
I want to wait to see his snaps, if he starts this week before getting anymore excited. I’ve been burned here before with false starts.
-- I‘m holding the WSH-DST through their Week 8 bye in several cases. They are a sacking machine of a unit but get this schedule ahead the next 4 weeks. Noted in terms of most sacks allowed by the team’s offense…
Week 9 = NYG #8
Week 10 = DET #15
Week 11 = CIN #1
Week 12 = DAL #7
I’ll take that stretch. Then I leave them in Weeks 13-15 with at PIT, at SF, SEA.
Snap Counts of Interest:
34 = McKissic
33 = Gibson
23 = Barber
37 = Zeke
19 = Pollard
39 = Holcomb (70%)
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Cardinals 37, Seahawks 34 OT
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
It felt like Seattle was going to run away with this game early. Right down the field unfettered for a quick TD, 7-0 Seattle lead. It wasn’t long before it was 20-7 Seattle. A bunch of scoring late 2nd-quarter, but Seattle left the field at the half with a 27-17 lead and you could feel they were the better team.
Then Arizona flipped the script…
Not immediately, they didn’t. It was 34-24 Seattle with 6+ minutes left, and I thought it was all but over watching live. Arizona was able to tie the ball game and send it to OT where I didn’t remember, until the re-watch, that this game appeared headed for a tie at the end of OT, but when Arizona picked off that errant Russell Wilson pass at the end – it was with less than a minute left and then went down in range for the game-winning field goal. I forgot the time was down that far when Arizona got the key turnover.
Nearly 1,100 yards of combined offense, 5 combined turnovers, 98 combined passes, 200 yards rushing for Seattle (and ‘only’ 159 for Arizona) – and Arizona wins and pulls into the NFC West title conversation.
I’m left thinking…is Arizona good…or is Seattle bad…or both good…or both bad? My instincts tell me they are roughly the same team…all offense, based around the QB/passing, and no defense/no pass rush. They will play in shootouts unless they face a team with pass rush pressure…but they can hang in games where they are under pressure because their QBs make plays.
Credit ARI D-C Vance Joseph, he did get a pass rush going here…9 QB hits, 3 picks of Wilson.
Seattle has the worst pass defense in the NFL because they have no pass rush – in five quarters of play they hit Kyler Murray ZERO times. I almost never see games with ZERO QB hits. It just happened here…and thus Kyler with a monster effort.
All the lopsided pressure data…and Arizona barely won…that’s what scares me on getting excited about their offense/team when tougher defenses face them, but it could just be me worrying to worry. Typical FF GM.
Arizona is now (5-2), goes on a bye, and then is about to get tested by their schedule. They start to play more physical teams and playoff hopefuls and head to unfriendly weather in the weeks to come. This was a key/pivotal win…10 wins and a possible NFC West title are in range for Arizona now, but so are 8 wins and missing the playoffs. I think the schedule circumstances have flipped in their favor ahead. They are very likely getting to 9-10 wins (Chris Bilello was right again!). Ugly as it might be sometimes, they are winning and that’s all that matters.
Seattle is a better version of Arizona, they just happened to lose this game…that they could’ve won many times over. The Seahawks have a similar schedule ahead – not as easy, a few more physical teams, weather comes into play with NFC East matchups to play Week 12 on. Seattle is good for 10-11 wins, and I’d give them the nod for the NFC West over Arizona…Weeks 12-15 facing PHI-NYG-NYJ-WSH is a gift from the schedule gods.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The most impressive thing I saw in this game, besides D.K. Metcalf’s tackling ability, was Chase Edmonds (5-58-0, 7-87-0/7).
I don’t mean that in the typical way we all say, like…’Edmonds is better than Drake, he should take over…stupid Kingsbury!’ Edmonds is a ‘C’ grade status in the universe because he’s a clear backup that many smarties say should be starting…but they only say that because Kenyan Drake (14-34-0, 1-7-0/2) has been so disappointing.
This is a key concept to keep in mind for all that I’m about to write – the experts and fans who yammer about wanting Edmonds to start, it’s not with true Edmonds-based passion, it’s a Drake punishment statement. It’s a unique way to say, “Drake sucks.” To punish Drake for being a top 18 FF draft pick and being a dud most weeks. At people’s core, they’re not thinking Chase Edmonds is a big name, super talent. He’s not more of a mindset like when JaMycal Hasty or Justin Jackson or Lamical Perine or Alexander Mattison falls into a spot where if they get touches by injury above them to the starter then they might be OK.
What I’m seeing…Edmonds may be the best ‘no name’ RB you can acquire for the future and is useful for the now. Edmonds is a starting NFL talent, with all the tools/a similar or better LeSean McCoy (if prime LeSean entered the NFL in 2020…which wouldn’t be as differencemaking because so much talent in the NFL now). Edmonds has added 5+ pounds of muscle. He is very shifty/agile. He’s a tough enough interior runner. He’s an excellent receiver.
Let me talk about his receiving ability…
In a way, he’s become a de facto 2nd-best receiver on the team. Smooth catcher of the ball, but then excellent in movement after the catch – and he’s not just catching dump passes and screens, he more catching passes downfield as much as short.
The past four games for Edmonds:
Week 4 = 5 catches, 6 targets, 24 yds rec, 1 TD
Week 5 = 5 catches, 6 targets, 56 yards rec. (a rushing TD)
Week 6 = 1 rec., 2 targets, 6 yards
Week 7 = 7 rec., 7 targets, 87 yards
In that same span, Drake has 2 catches on 5 targets for 9 yards.
D.J. Chark hasn’t been as productive receiving as Edmonds the past 4 weeks. Nor Mike Williams. Just two names that popped into my head. I could point out more, you get the point.
Edmonds works as a backup with Drake for the right now in PPR. Obviously, he is going to be really good with Drake out of the picture Week 9 (if).
The player this week, in Dynasty/keeper, I’d focus on making a big deal to acquire is Chase Edmonds. He works for FF as Drake’s backup but if he goes off in Week 9-10, the Drake v. Edmonds debate will really heat up. I want to try to get in ahead of Edmonds playing and making it so obvious. But it’s really a bet on 2021 (with 2020 benefits too)…
Kenyan Drake is a free agent after the season. Drake has shown no reason for any NFL team to make plans or spend big around him. Arizona already paid him $8M for this season…about $7M too much. A one-year option they got suckered into. Chase Edmonds’ emergence allows them not to get suckered again. As soon as the season is ‘2021’, Edmonds will be the main RB on the roster.
Arizona could draft an RB, could sign an RB…they could even bring back Drake, but why? When they have Edmonds in the system for two years, proven at a much lower cost? I mean, they will add guys around any starting RB, but you see the work Drake gets now…that should be Edmonds’ work load for 2021 + all the passing game that Drake is a zero in right now.
Edmonds is going to start in Week 9 and probably Week 10 (and maybe 11), and that’s a speed bump in trade right now…but Edmonds isn’t playing this week (bye), so if you have an RB of the moment…Scott, Gio, Jamaal that you don’t really need this week – it might be the perfect flip of RBs who seem like ‘just for a week’ guys. But our plans are more devious than ‘spot start’ RB. We’re taking the long view, that might end up a short view after Week 9…but worst case a useful RB2-3 in PPR the ROS.
You shouldn’t have to pay a lot for this. He’s not a name people covet, but they do respect. He’s an RB2.5…that I’m willing to pay RB2 money for…or more, if I need to…if I have the hype names of the moment to throw at it to con the current owner.
In redraft, like I said…Scott, Gio, Jamaal, Hasty are guys to consider a similar ‘1-2 week only’ flip for. Add trinkets if the person you’re dealing with is being obstinate.
In Dynasty, whatever you could get away with to make this investment. The current owner may profess love, but it is only because of the moment…the Week 9-10 start, but Drake looms and they know (they think) it’s a limited engagement. I’d pay the price here but don’t enter the room naked to make your lust obvious…worm your way around to it. The more you show you’re interested in a name specifically, the more puckered up the current owner gets.
-- The Kyler Murray (34-48 for 360 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 14-67-1) Report…and it is good.
Kyler is ringing up fantasy points like mad, which I love. I also have to keep in mind…everyone is bombing Seattle. Kyler has been fortunate to face Detroit-Carolina-NYJ-Dallas-Seattle the past five weeks. In terms of sack% (sacks per pass attempt), here’s how those five teams rank in the NFL in sack-ability: #26, #32, #24, #20, #29.
When Kyler has time, he’s deadly…most top QBs are…but especially Kyler. That’s why I went ballistic that the Cardinals drafted Isaiah Simmons top 10, instead of a top O-Lineman…which was the single stupidest pick in the 1st-round (and Simmons can’t even get on the field because he doesn’t know what he’s doing…while all kinds of rookies are playing 100% of the snaps).
Here’s the next seven games of sack% defenses the Cards face by NFL rank: #8 (MIA), #11 (BUF), #29 (SEA, now with Dunlap), #22 (NE), #6 (LAR), #10 (NYG), #3 (PHI). Things are about to get rougher.
I’m not saying Kyler shrivels up and dies…maybe, he goes through it and is the league MVP/best player in all of FF 2020 (God, I hope so). I’m just keeping focus on the fact that there’s been some schedule advantage here.
I’m not looking to trade Kyler in Dynasty, but I’m not against it. More NOT looking to now because the more Arizona wins, the more I know Kliff is staying, and this Kyler gets what he wants. Every Arizona win this year…another brick in a firm foundation for Kyler’s near future. If Arizona loses their next 2-3-4 in a row…we start dredging up old fears.
-- Who is going to start for Seattle at RB this week (Week 8)? Everyone is hurt. Everyone might be out…or everyone might be in.
If Chris Carson is out, a big IF, who would it be?
Carlos Hyde (15-68-1, 2-8-0/4) would split with Travis Homer (3-10-0) but Hyde has a hamstring concern and Homer has a knee concern. They are both questionable.
Rashaad Penny doesn’t seem back anytime soon.
It could leave DeeJay Dallas (2-18-0/3) by attrition. And Dallas has shown promise…like if Hyde-Homer had an offspring it would be Dallas.
Just noting…Dallas could be in a position to shock the world if the injury issues all go against Seattle. Watch the practice reports and whether they sign any backs off the street THU-FRI. I’ll be watching.
-- D.K. Metcalf (2-23-0/5) had a bad FF game…after I proclaimed that he’s the greatest FF thing in the world the week prior. That’s how these things work. You need me to bring down a WR in 2020? For a small fee, I’ll write glowingly about them and they’ll be trapped in a bizarre coal mine collapse incident Sunday before kickoff.
Note…DKM had the game-winning (in OT) catch and run 30+ yard TD, but it got called back for a penalty elsewhere.
I’ll buy all your DKM stock, and Tyler Lockett (15-200-3/20) is going to be a huge beneficiary of DKM attention…just like this game. Seattle IS the elite passing game tally team of 2020…not KC, not Buffalo…Seattle. DKM and Lockett ‘win’.
If I LOVE a WR…this is what will happen to them, so beware when I get on a Parris, Diontae, Deebo, Chark, DKM last week or Claypool last week train: https://youtu.be/B40cQXCfooE
-- Is it me or does Andy Isabella (1-7-0/3) fail 90% of the time when he gets a chance at rare touches? It always seems he’s slipping and falling on every incoming pass. Might someone, anyone, maybe even himself…consider changing cleats at some point?
Isabella’s career is sliding down a drain here.
Memba when they drafted Isabella-Butler-KeeSean in the same draft incoming with Kilff…what a trio they had? Ummm…nope.
-- Christian Kirk (5-37-2/8) has been hot as a pistol for FF…I’m selling that all week long if I can. Selling him as a WR2 in a hot offense. Kirk has been a nobody all year, then got one lucky bomb vs. Dallas and then two short TDs here. 500+ yards of offense and Kirk has just 5 catches for 37 yards (but 2 TDs).
Kirk for Edmonds redraft? Done. I’ll take Edmonds. Need a bit more, I can make that happen to go with Kirk to get your Edmonds.
-- IDPs of note…
SEA DB Ryan Neal (9 tackles, 1 TFL) has come out of nowhere to be IDP great. 7.7 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 1.0 PDs per game the past three games since he’s become a starter. Jamal Adams returning may change all that but it’s working for now.
SEA rookie LB Jordyn Brooks (7 tackles, 1 TFL) got his first major playing time of 2020 and in half a game was in on 7 tackles. Something to watch if he’s going to start soon – a 1st-round LB who is a talent, a master at TFLs.
Haason Reddick (11 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 3 TFLs) has been reborn with Chandler Jones out. 8.0 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2.5 TFLs the past two weeks playing more snaps as an OLB pass rusher, which he was great at in college. Why they tried to convert him to ILB, I don’t understand…it wasted years of his career.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Edmonds
34 = Drake
42 = Darrell Daniels
21 = Arnold
41 = Hyde
16 = Homer
15 = Carson
12 = Dallas
