- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Saints 24, Falcons 9
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This should’ve been the game the Falcons played their best game of 2020. Had they won this game, they would’ve climbed to (4-6) and had some playoff life still intact. Instead, they play their worst game under Raheem Morris and lost…and their season is essentially over.
The Falcons led 9-3 with 2+ minutes left until halftime, and they were scuffling around with a bunch of field goals but winning…while the Saints looked disjointed with their new QB. However, the Saints pulled it together to score a touchdown before halftime and took a 10-9 lead. Anyone’s game…in a game not being played all that well.
From halftime on, Taysom Hill got his legs underneath him and turned into Lamar Jackson 2019 and Falcons never scored again, as New Orleans just manhandled Atlanta to earn a 24-9 victory.
The Falcons fall to (3-7), and honestly, after watching this performance…this season, and last…how, the owner could continue forward with Matt Ryan at QB is beyond me. However, they are way overinvested in him and are essentially financially stuck with him for another couple years unless they take a total write-off…which I assume they do not have the guts to do. The Falcons should lose out (very tough schedule ahead) or win one more and finish with 3-4 wins and earn a top 10 draft pick.
The Saints are now winners of seven in-a-row. Credit to them, they’ve grabbed several lucky wins early in this win streak and are now starting to pound opposing teams. The Saints are hitting their stride again. They project anywhere from 12-14 wins depending upon the QB situation. A favorable schedule ahead. #1 seed potential is in play as Green Bay starts to slide.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- So, Taysom Hill (18-23 for 233 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT, 10-51-2) had the type of output I expected. He’s not a bad QB, and he has Lamar Jackson-ish type traits/abilities as a runner-thrower. Not a perfect pocket passer, but defenses have to respect his run ability so much he gets more time in the pocket to work with. Overall, after a bumpy first 20 minutes, Hill got his sea legs under him and played well the final 40 minutes. The offense had a spark, an enthusiasm like or better than when Drew Brees 2020 heads it up.
Before everyone gets all excited over Taysom’s breakout performance, we have to consider two things:
1) ESPN has already announced they are pulling Hill’s fantasy TE eligibility for Week 12 forward/as long as he is the QB. Other leagues will likely follow.
It was great while it lasted. It got several people a nice spread of TE scoring Week 11. It was a gift. Enjoy that we even got it, as they take it away this week.
It’s the right thing to do by ESPN, and others.
2) Taysom did look very good here but consider that this was against the terrible pass defense of the Atlanta Falcons. With a week of tape, and against a better defense to face this week (Denver) at their home/altitude – it could be a minor fall back to earth.
Once that depression sets in, consider two more things…
1) When Drew Brees returns, Taysom is likely to gain his TE status back in leagues where he had it prior…BUT he could see even more time at QB to spare Brees, or just because he is so integrated. He could be a TE1 once Brees returns with a mix of TE play AND QB play.
Claiming/holding Hill as your QB2, might have benefits again later.
2) I LOVE listening to all the pregame people crying about how they were so sure that Jameis Winston was going to be the starter, I mean…how couldn’t he? These media people worshipped the ground JW walked on and told us incessantly that he was a generational QB talent. So, of course they ignored Taysom as an option early in the week…they didn’t even know much about Hill because they didn’t care, it was Winston’s time to show everyone how smart the analysts were all along. The mainstream is so chapped by Winston not getting the start that I heard some low-key racism ‘wonderings’ on national coverage/talk shows as to why someone as talented as Jameis could sit for the lowly Taysom Hill.
Then Taysom went out and played ball…and now they all had to put a sock in it.
Don’t worry, they’ll take that sock back out of the pie hole and start being wrong again…they’re just waiting for Taysom to lose a game, throw a pick, etc. They are going to try and destroy Taysom for daring to usurp the coronation of the great Jameis Winston. You watch. It’s disgusting how the NFL analyst class operates.
I couldn’t be any happier about it.
It’s been a bad week to be an awful-at-football-analysis NFL media type, which is to say…it’s a bad week for ALL the major media football analysts…
Winston didn’t even start and Taysom looked great, and THEN their new golden boy, Tua, got benched because he borderline sucks. The football media class had a rough week, which means they will have to rip things they hate to shreds to get their status back – they’ll be trying to get bad coaches fired during this week’s discussions to have a distraction away from your realizing they suck at football analysis…while they wait for their time to strike/re-love Jameis and Tua.
OK, here’s the Taysom-effect for fantasy…as we know it after one whole game…
-- Michael Thomas (9-104-0/12) had his best game of 2020, by far…he looked reborn with Taysom. It might have been he was just shedding rust the prior few games, as to why he underperformed upon his return. It might have been the Falcons can’t cover anyone.
We’ll see if it holds up, but the connection looked like they’ve played together as starters for years. My bet is…the targets are going to hold up, for sure. Against Denver, we might all do a 180 on this on Hill and/or Thomas.
-- Emmanuel Sanders (4-66-0/5) also looked the best he has as a Saint in 2020. Again, it could be for the ‘Falcons’ as the reason that helped it along.
-- One player that wasn’t a winner…Alvin Kamara (13-45-1, 0-0-0/1). No catches…on one target.
The Saints aren’t going to let AK drift away in this offense, but he will lose a little to Taysom’s style. I don’t think we’ll get the gaudy 7-15 pass catches/targets in games, but we will get more targeting than this and he’ll be productive otherwise.
Running QBs tend to:
a) Keep the ball themselves near the goal line to run for scores.
b) Not live to check down passes to RBs…they are more look downfield for things, and then run if needed.
I suspect Sean Payton will groom Hill to know that a pass to Kamara in the flat is a weapon/asset, not a compromise.
Latavius Murray (12-49-0, 2-36-0/2) maybe fits Taysom better…the power runner to fake/handoff to up the middle on the read option, but they will not-not be Kamara-centric on offense (unless Taysom becomes the centerpiece by sheer force/his play).
-- Jared Cook (1-6-0/1) was not a winner. Worse than the low targeting (and Cook got two other targets that were negated to penalty) – Adam Trautman (1-19-0/1) played more snaps than Cook here.
I’m not sure if a TE shift is underway, or it was making Taysom more comfortable with a better blocker TE, or what…but it happened, and Jared Cook might be in memoriam as a TE1 – after being a TD machine with the Saints going back to last season, Cook hasn’t scored a TD (or FF-mattered) in three straight games.
-- Oh, and the Falcons played in this game.
I’m not going to single out any player here because every FF player’s numbers, except Calvin Ridley’s ((5-90-0/5), was atrocious/unlike their norms. I’d be buying Hayden Hurst (0-0-0/2) after this event, not running from him.
Julio Jones (2-39-0/2) got hurt, and is questionable for this upcoming week…if he’s out – Olamide Zaccheaus (1-10-0/1) gets a bump for FF…he had 100+ yards in the game Week 10, and virtually ignored Week 11 as a backup…and, inexplicably, Christian Blake (2-28-0/4) playing a lot of snaps in Julio’s stead.
-- Was it the Falcons crapping themselves or the Saints defense is getting ‘that good’? The Saints have just shut down TB-SF-ATL in order, holding all of them to less than 15 points, and two of them under 10 points. I guess the Saints are a hot DST play.
The schedule the next three weeks sets up nice for it…at DEN, at ATL, at PHI.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
32 = Trautman
25 = Cook
19 = G Griffin
33 = Latavius
32 = Kamara
51 = Ridley
49 = Gage
37 = Blake
22 = Julio
13 = Zaccheaus
26 = Brian Hill
23 = Gurley
06 = Ito
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Rams 27, Bucs 24
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Now, everyone was sure that the Buccaneers would get focused and ‘crush’ at home on Monday Night Football…after their embarrassing loss Week 9 to New Orleans on SNF -- because they wouldn’t let that happen again. Not Tom Brady…couldn’t happen again.
They kinda did let it happen again.
If you watched every play/series of this game, you have to now know – the Rams might be the best team in the NFC, and it be because of their defense as much as anything else. They took it to/at the Bucs and never relented.
The more physical team = the Rams
Better, tougher QB = the Rams
Better WR group = the Rams
Better defensive unit = the Rams
I’ve called the Rams soft multiple times this year…the joke is on me. They’ve turned that ship around via what might be the best defense in the NFL now – one that has signs of being the true shutdown/you don’t want to face them kind.
This game was back-and-forth, but it was more the Rams controlling and the Bucs chasing…and the better team winning in the end. I know the focus of this game is going to be ‘the Tampa Bay/Brady letdown’, but that’s because we’re suckers for the media story. The real story here is – the Rams are becoming great again, and they just walloped Seattle and Tampa Bay in games everyone expected them to lose. The Rams are winning again…and the impressive part of that is that it is because they’ve transformed into a physically tough team. They weren’t tough last year or to start this season, to me. Teams and seasons undergo ebbs and flows and transformations and injuries and growth and all kinds of shifting sands – the lesson from this game is that the Rams are an emerging monster (not…that the Bucs need to play better on national TV…or ‘is Brady washed up’ – those questions are a disservice to the Rams’ ability now).
L.A. is now (7-3) and are going to the wire to win the NFC West…and they might wind up the #1 seed in the NFC if they finish hot. If Arizona is a minor fraud, then the Rams can sweep them ahead (two games upcoming) and possibly win 12 games this year. More likely the Rams finish (11-5) and because of Seattle’s easy schedule, that might be a game behind Seattle and throws the Rams into being a dangerous wild card.
Tampa Bay falls to (7-4) and are facing the reality that they are a wild card/they are not catching the Saints for the NFC South. If/when the Bucs get whacked vs. KC this week…all heck might break loose in Tampa. The Bucs’ schedule says then they should sweep their final 4 games and wind up (11-5), which puts them in a possible tie with the Rams in the wild card…but the Rams just took the seeding tiebreaker with this win.
If the Saints and Seahawks win their division, and the Packers and whomever wins the NFC East thus round out the 4 division winners -- then the Rams and Bucs are 11 win wild cards…and then there’s one spot remaining among the wild card…and that should be Arizona sneaking in. However, if the Cardinals lose to New England this week (and fall to 6-5), the wild card race really opens up to any good NFC team that gets to five wins after Week 12 (Minnesota, Carolina, San Fran).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s look at all the ways the Rams are better than the Bucs in talent, and in fantasy…
First, we’ll start with the QBs:
Jared Goff (39-51 for 376 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs) is better than Tom Brady (26-48 for 216 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) at this stage of their careers. You couldn’t watch that game last night and think otherwise.
Everyone thought the Bucs would rally on national TV to put LAR in their place, and that Goff would wilt under the Bucs immense pressure…especially minus his long time starting left tackle. The QB who wilted, who was rattled was Tom Brady.
This could be a career turning point for Goff – constantly mocked, expected to falter under the aggressive defense of the Bucs, on the road on a national TV game…and Goff was technically terrific. Not talking fantasy greatness ahead, although he was fine for FF too – just noting this was a display of great NFL quarterback game play. I’m so happy for Goff, he has deserved more respect.
The Rams’ run game was obliterated by the Bucs, so they knew Goff was going to have to throw and Goff sliced and diced the Bucs with tight window throw after tight window throw. The Rams defense was one piece of the puzzle here, but Goff coming of age…that was the other piece here. This wasn’t a lucky win…like a few weeks ago when the Dolphins smacked the Rams around with a bunch of turnovers that all bounced their way – this was one team’s imposed ‘will’ on defense and with a quarterback who just played huge in a major statement game.
It doesn’t mean Goff is a top 5-8 QB for fantasy now…but he should be seen as more back-end QB1 (6pts per pass TD) than not. The Rams want to run the ball heavy with an RBBC, but this game may have shown them they should get with the 2020 times and start riding their QB more.
Tom Brady is probably the more desired FF QB, because he runs the Bucs…thus they are slowly cracking apart. Still, with Brady in charge…he will throw a million times in games, because he wants to, while Goff has to play within Sean McVay’s system which is a modified Jon Gruden philosophy.
-- The Rams WRs are better than the Bucs WRs…
Both WR groups faced tough secondaries, and the Rams top guys shined…like shockingly so, and the Bucs looked like a discount version of the Rams – you could see it in real-time in this game. It was an easy visual comparison.
Cooper Kupp (11-145-0/13) destroyed all his coverage…including top ranked CB Carlton Davis. The only thing stopping Kupp from being a steady WR1 is the passing game volume, and things getting spread around game-to-game. He’s 20-25th in PPR PPG among WRs YTD.
Robert Woods (12-13-0-1/15) re-reminded us that he is a WR1 threat too, and that he is a low-key great NFL WR. Woods is 11th in PPR PPG YTD.
If we were drafting FF WRs today, it would Woods-Kupp or Kupp-Woods 1-2, then you’d get into the Bucs WRs for your #3 pick.
…and wouldn’t that #3 be Antonio Brown (8-57-0/13), for 2020/redraft right now? You saw it – Brady only has eyes for AB, and for some justification…Brown looks like shades of his former self, and you can see the connection the two have. Bruce Arians has to stop pretending, and just put Brown in the game 80% of the time…Brady needs him. The Bucs could make a Super Bowl run, getting hot at the right time, with Brady-Brown humming. The only that stops AB as a sure WR1 ahead is what playing time Arians gives him. He may have no choice soon.
The #4 pick would be Chris Godwin (7-53-1/10)…Brady’s ‘when AB isn’t there’ throw. It’s good work if you can get it. It means 5-7 catches and 40-70 yards per game and an 8 TD per season type pace. Totally solid.
The #5 pick would be Mike Evans (5-49-1/9). There is absolutely no connection between Brady-Evans, and I think Evans is furious about it. I’m watching Evans run routes half speed in a mild form of protest (it’s what my eyes thinks they see). I’ve seen the frustration in Evans’ body language for 3-4 weeks now, since AB arrived…and there was no love/connection between Brady-Evans before that. Evans gets good short TDs and is always a 3rd-wheel throw now since AB returned.
-- The Rams RBBC is better than the Bucs RBBC, but really…’who cares?’ they’re all RB3-4s.
When the game flow is right/TB is winning/controlling games, then Ronald Jones (10-24-0, 0-0-0/1) is a possible RB1-2. Arians will run/control games with RoJo…to save Brady from himself and salt away wins.
Leonard Fournette (7-17-1, 1-9-0/4) is not rehabbing his career for a 2021 push in free agency…he’s confirming that the Jags knew something. Fournette looks slow running the ball, and he’s certainly ineffective doing it. He’s become a bloated J.D. McKissic 3rd-down back, who sees 20% of the targets McKissic does, and Brady couldn’t throw it to him on target this game for cheap/easy catches.
Fournette is an RB3 for PPR, at best…and you have to hope the Bucs have to throw a lot for him to possibly matter. This week against KC might be a decent spot…and then LF is garbage the rest of the way potentially. Just a RoJo cuff is all.
No sense in singling out the Rams RBBC, or even me saying the same things over and over. Henderson-Akers-Brown are all involved each game, each has a role, the touches/series are split. It’s the absolute right thing to do for the NFL, but RB3-4 death for fantasy trying to pick one week-to-week.
-- Since Antonio Brown returned to the NFL, Rob Gronkowski (2-25-0/6) has averaged 1.7 catches, 26.0 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game. Another TE is biting the dust and becoming a random event TE2 trying to have a TE1 week…of which there are 15 TEs trying to do so after Kelce-Waller at the top.
Get this…
The last two games, Cam Brate (3-23-0) has averaged 3.0 rec., 27.0 yards, and 0.50 TDs per game. Some of Gronk’s issue is AB arriving to spread things thin…the other is Brate starting to pickpocket targets.
-- FYI, the game winning FG was very apropos…highly drafted (for a kicker) by Tampa Bay – new Rams kicker Matt Gay (2/3 FG, 3/3 XP).
Gay was unceremoniously cut in September 2020 by Bruce Arians after a promising rookie 2019. Gay hooked onto the Rams just a few weeks ago and was elevated this game for his 2020 debut. Good for him.
Also, he’s a booming leg kicker that might have gotten a boost of confidence back in vanquishing his former coach who did him dirty.
Gay was the #5 kicker in PPG fantasy last season, because he could hit 50+ yarders with some ease. Now he plays for another solid offense. He might have some FF legs for the ROS. Kicks in a dome the next 4 weeks…that’s good too.
-- In the battle of the better DSTs…you have to go with the Rams as the better unit. 2-3 weeks ago, it was the Bucs without blinking/thinking about it. Now, the Rams have hit a stride and are not only better than the Bucs but may be the best defense in the NFL.
The Rams have a favorable schedule Weeks 12 (SF), 14 (NE), 15 (NYJ)…but this DST might be so good that Week 14 v. Kyler isn’t bad either.
Many will drop the Bucs after this week. Week 12 v. KC. Week 13 is a bye. I will take them, depending upon my need if they are dropped – MIN-ATL-DET Weeks 14-16 should be strong for a good FF DST (because of their pressure and turnover creation).
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Snap Counts of Interest:
68 = Godwin
61 = Evans
43 = AB
15 = S Miller
54 = Gronk
29 = Brate
36 = Fournette
25 = RoJo
68 = Woods
65 = JReynolds
52 = Kupp
33 = DHenderson
27 = M Brown
12 = Akers
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Football Team 20, Bengals 9
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game was sad for the Bengals for multiple reasons. Obviously, the Joe Burrow injury situation…devastating. But hidden by that major event…the Bengals were handling Washington and were well on their way to a win and people bailing on the F-Team. Instead, Burrow is taken out…and Washington is in the NFC East title hunt. It shouldn’t have been.
The Bengals led 9-7 at halftime…their first five offensive series were all drives down to the red zone or goal line area, all scoring opportunities – but several fluky things happened (a fumble, missed FGs) and caused Cincy to settle for 9 points. They were knocking on the door of having scored 21+ points before the half…but instead it was just 9.
Once Ryan Finley came in, all the final wind was knocked out the Bengals’ sails…and transferred it to Washington, who then ran over Cincy. Had the injury never happened, I believe Cincy would have put 20-25+ points on F-Team and would have won this game easily. Instead, the reverse happened.
With the loss, Cincinnati falls to (2-7-1)…losing several games they coulda/shoulda won, including this one. With better coaching/team management this could’ve been a .500 team scrapping for the playoffs behind Burrow. Now, they will lose out and have to worry about how long Burrow is really out.
Washington luckily jumps to (3-7) and is firmly in the bizarre race for the NFC East. If they beat Dallas Week 12/THU…they are technically in 1st-place until the Sunday games are played out. I think they’ll lose to Dallas and their season will slip away to 4-5 wins tops, BUT I’m not ruling out they beat Dallas and make a run at ‘first team to 6 wins, wins the NFC East’ prize.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Joe Burrow (22-34 for 203 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) injury has me taking out my fictitious red pen and slashing through all the Bengals’ related redraft fantasy numbers. Everything is poisoned. It even hurts Dynasty outlooks a little bit on Burrow and related players.
There is no more debate over Herbert vs. Burrow, for Dynasty, in the short term.
Here’s a list of the things affected by this Burrow loss…
1) The Bengals now have arguably the single worst offense in the NFL…which means a great play for your opposing DSTs.
This really aids Miami-DST Week 13. Makes Dallas-DST viable Week 14. It puts Houston-DST on the board come the all-important Week 16.
2) Ryan Finley (3-10 for 30 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) is OK…a ‘D+’ grade QB. He might get better with time, but he’s had no real time to get better. He’s a backup paid little attention to and not groomed, now thrown into playing with a terrible O-Line and weak backfield and mostly slower, technically savvy WRs. Having pro/savvy WRs requires a tight window thrower…that won’t be Finley, he hasn’t enough time with them or the O-Line protection to make it hum. All you had to do was watch the 1st-half of this game with Burrow as a magician, and the 2nd-half with Finley crushed every other play.
3) The RB-duo of Gio Bernard (9-18-0, 4-37-0/5) and Samaje Perine (5-19-0, 1-2-0/2) were already not doing great, now it will be worse – hard-pressed to find TDs to help their FF scoring.
Gio might see some extra pass attempts to be Flex viable in PPR.
If Joe Mixon returns, he’s mostly dead in this too.
4) Tyler Boyd (9-85-0/11) and Tee Higgins (3-26-0/10) go from WR1.5s to WR3s. Higgins really hurt because his lack of speed doesn’t help Finley to make great use of him in the timing passing game. Burrow-Higgins was magic…Finley-Higgins is going to be a mess, potentially.
5) A.J. Green (4-41-1/9) is not a help, ever, in 2020 anyway…so, he’s a WR4 still.
6) Auden Tate’s (1-5-0/2) rise is shot down until 2021, when Burrow returns.
7) Take down Randy Bullock’s (1/3 FG, 0/1 XP) numbers too. He was doing well, but no Burrow…and note he missed two FGs and an XP in this game on top of everything else.
-- When will Burrow return? He has more than a garden variety ACL tear. It’s ACL, MCL, and other structural. He could miss all the 2021 preseason and be limited in returning…and you don’t rush a golden goose like this.
Not only is the redraft picture bleak…so too is the Dynasty valuations going to take a hit on Higgins, etc. What if he loses a half or full 2021 season with Burrow out? Not to mention Boyd-Mixon, etc.
Dark times for everything Cincinnati.
Not a bad time for your rebuilding FF team to trade for Burrow, as an investment, and just have him as a luxury item. He’s going to be one of the best in the game, potentially. He already kinda was.
-- Alex Smith (17-25 for 166 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is not one of the best QBs in the game. He limped by another opponent here…he’s about one step above Ryan Finley damage to the surrounding items for FF.
There are only two winners with Alex Smith…
1) When WSH is winning, Antonio Gibson (16-94-1, 1-0-0/2) will be an RB1.
2) When WSH is losing, J.D. McKissic (6-43-0, 3-26-0/4) will be a PPR RB1.
-- I thought this was a perfect spot for Cam Sims (2-20-0/2) to make more noise against a weak Cincy secondary…but he got all of two targets.
Steven Sims (3-13-1/3) was the Sims to have…and that wasn’t great either.
If you’re trying to work McLaurin-Thomas-Sims I and II for fantasy…why? You’re trying to get numbers from one of the three worst passing games in the NFL with 25-50% of the action going to go to J.D. McKissic depending.
This was a perfect opponent to throw on, and they could hardly put numbers up against them. Sell it all. Avoid.
-- Two IDP notes…
1) WSH Rookie DE James Smith-Williams (2 tackles, 0.5 sacks,2 QB hits) caught my attention during the college All-Star circuit work. He, at times, looks like a 1st-round pick level pass rusher…but he usually is inconsistent in the end.
He made the Washington roster, and is playing a few more snaps each week and got 2 QB hits in here. A long way to go to viability, but just note he’s not-nothing for deep IDP.
2) WSH SAF Kamren Curl (9 tackles) has started the last three games and averaged 9.7 tackles, 1.33 QB hits, 0.67 TFLs, 0.67 sacks per game in that span. He’s working great for IDP. I don’t see the ‘wow’ on tape, but he’s working ‘on paper’.
-- You need to find better than the Washington-DST.
They look sexy…holding Cincy to 9 points, and getting 4 sacks – but all the sacks were on Finley. Burrow was mowing through them every drive, just unlucky most every time with missed field goals, fumbles at the goal line, etc. The prior week, the Detroit offense that got shutout by Carolina…they mowed through Washington.
The Washington-DST has promise but is an operating fraud currently. However, I could use them Week 12 at Dallas with some hope…because of the Dallas O-Line, but I wouldn’t think it a slam dunk. After Week 12…you need to run from the Washington-DST.
Snap Counts of Interest:
57 = McLaurin
52 = Cam Sims
20 = Steven Sims
16 = I Wright
33 = Gibson
32 = McKissic
37 = Gio
31 = Perine
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Seahawks 28, Cardinals 21
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
A back-and-forth game where Seattle just looked like they had the better plan/enthusiasm/luck this night…you could kinda feel it from the start. Down 23-21 with 13+ minutes left, the Cardinals got called for holding in the end zone, which resulted in a safety…and that really took the wind out of the Arizona sails.
From the point of the safety, Seattle took the ensuing free kick on a 7-minute, back-breaking drive to kick a field goal to jump ahead 28-21. Plenty of time for Kyler & Friends with 2+ minutes left.
Kyler worked it right down the field but down to the Seattle 27-yard line, Kyler threw three incompletes and then was sacked on the 4th-down and…ball game.
Good, solid division win for Seattle as they take the NFC West lead at (7-3) and now hit a schedule stretch that should launch them to the NFC West title, a possible #1 seed, and a possible Super Bowl trip (to lose to whatever team comes from the AFC). I don’t think they’ll get to the big dance but this win was huge with a favorable PHI-NYG-NYJ-WSH the next 4 weeks…they can get to (11-3) and be in a great spot to finish with 12-13 wins. We project they stumble somewhere in the 4-game cake stretch and end up (11-5), which could still win the West over the Rams.
Arizona loses, falls to (6-4)…a Hail Mary Week 10 away from being (5-5) and losers of three straight. Massive next two weeks for Arizona…at NE, v. LAR. If they lose both of those games, it proves they are not ready for the next level yet and an (8-8) season may emerge. If they can at least split with their next two games, they should get to (9-7), at least, and sneak into the playoffs. 10 wins isn’t off the table…but considering that they might be a Week 10 Hail Mary win and a lucky OT win vs. SEA Week 7 away from being losers of their last 4 in-a-row…a collapse to 7-8 wins isn’t off the table either.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Kyler Murray (29-42 for 269 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 5-15-0) Report…
Everything is fine.
We’re so used to Murray crushing it for FF tallies, that a 20-24 point FF game seems like a letdown. I get it. He didn’t add his usual 50+ yards rushing with rushing TD FF-goodness here…I was getting too used to booking it every week.
Just know:
a) everything is fine
b) his luck had to run out at some point…’luck’ meaning, just that there would be a game that the script worked against him.
What hurt him here…
Early in the game, tried for a rushing TD, as he does, had the angle for a moment but got caught up and sent out of bounds short.
A 35/25 time of possession deficit for the Arizona offense.
When the penalty/safety happened in the 4th-quarter, Seattle then went on a 7-minute drive and left Kyler with just one drive for the game for final FF points, and it didn’t end in a TD. Just short again. The ball kept away too much for a huge FF week.
Had Kyler converted a TD on that final drive, we probably would have got +6-8 (depending on 4 or 6pts per pass TD) more FF points…AND another OT game for more numbers.
Kyler threw Andy Isabella a perfect pass on the money in the end zone 2nd-to-last play, but Seattle made a perfect timing breakup. A second later on the DB’s arrival on the throw and it might have been a sweet/long TD. A second earlier that they arrived and it would have been pass interference for 1st & goal from the 1-yard line and an OT game.
We just missed a sweet one with Kyler this week.
Everything is fine.
Next week, at potentially cold New England…that has me not doing cartwheels…
-- Russell Wilson (23-28 for 197 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 10-48-0) had a similar event as Kyler for FF scoring. The thing that has me a touch worried about Wilson for FF ahead…a season low 28 pass attempts, and 31 rushing attempts here, which allowed them to control time of possession and win this game. And that ‘mode’ is starting to creep back into the Seattle offense.
The head coach and O-C that wants to, CRAVES to run the ball…they just did just that and it worked to perfection for them. They get Chris Carson back as early as Week 12.
…I think the Seattle HC and O-C may be taking the spatula and apron away from Wilson, and kicking him out of the kitchen at meal time. Not fully, but enough to move him away from the high-flying top 3 FF QB you got used to early.
-- If Russ is going to reheat leftovers more than ‘cook’, it’s going to affect their WRs for FF.
Tyler Lockett (9-67-1/9) might be at more risk because he’s had more FF duds than WR1 moments…except against Arizona, where he’s made a season off two games against them.
D.K. Metcalf (3-46-1/5) might have a little dip, but even though he’s getting double covered more now…he’s still a small ‘g’ god WR. He caught a 41-yard beauty in this game that got called back for offensive holding or his game would have been more fine for FF.
-- Worse week for the Arizona WRs…
DeAndre Hopkins (5-51-0/8) got doubled quite a bit.
That meant Christian Kirk (4-50-0/6) should’ve had a great FF game, but he was a virtual ghost. Larry Fitz (8-62-0/10) more led the way. Smart of Kyler not to force it where it wasn’t available.
I just don’t trust Kirk + Kyler, in my heart of hearts…something doesn’t look right with Kirk in this relationship, or lack thereof.
-- Kyler did hit Chase Edmonds (2-13-0, 4-36-1/4) for a TD pass…as I’ve been noting for weeks, Edmonds survives in 2020 as a PPR back…an RB2-3 you can use even though he plays limited snaps.
I was disappointed he went right back to no/little carries (2) in this game. Gotta make way for the great Kenyan Drake (11-29-1, 4-31-0/5) and his 2.6 yards per carry.
-- Carlos Hyde (14-79-1, 2-16-0/3) led the way for Seattle…a 2nd-half TD run saved a fantasy ‘meh’ week.
Bo Scarborough (6-31-0) came off the practice squad and looked good, as always. How Tennessee never signed him and made him Derrick Henry’s clone/backup, I have no idea.
Next week, Chris Carson could return…and the two RBs who ran this game are done for FF. Hyde just a ‘cuff you must have because of Carson’s fragility…but Rashaad Penny is trying to get back soon, so that further confuses the ‘cuff situation.
-- Greg Olsen is done for the season, and probably his career (that’s been over for like 2-3 years). His injury does create an opportunity that fantasy analysts will probably be chirping about this week…
Will Dissly (1-10-0/1) played the majority of snaps in Olsen’s absence (43 snaps) and not Jacob Hollister (2-14-0) who had just 13 snaps.
Dissly will be one of the waiver talks of the week, in a desperate TE world…with everyone remembering when he was FF hot for a blip (before getting hurt) last season. I will be talking about it as well.
-- IDPs that I have to mention…
D.J. Reed (11 tackles) has now registered back-to-back double-digit total tackle games (10 and 11). Reed was grabbed off waivers by Seattle several weeks ago. He became a starter Week 8, and in his four games played he’s averaging 8.3 tackles, 0.75 PDs per game with a pick and a fumble recovery. Since Week 8, he’s been a DB1 performer.
Carlos Dunlap (4 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 3 QB hits) loves playing for Seattle/getting away from Cincy…3.0 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1.7 TFLs, 2.0 QB hits per game in his three games as a Seahawk.
Possible breakout performer here, I have to say it, despite all my mocking…Isaiah Simmons (10 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 TFLs). He’s starting to play more and more snaps, and he was like a man possessed in this game. Looks like he grew two inches and added 10 pounds of muscle since Week 1. Stock is rising on Simmons, but he still can’t block worth a shit.
(Some of you know what that last sentence means – Kyler was sacked a season-high 3 times this game, and held to a season low rushing tally…and lost…just sayin’).
-- My Seattle-DST advisories several weeks ago…it’s turning out to be something that might save FF seasons/get teams over to and through the FF playoffs. They have looked much better with Carlos Dunlap acquired/him playing the last 3 weeks…and doing so facing Josh Allen-Goff-Kyler.
If Seattle gets back starting CB’s Griffin-Dunbar from injury, with this schedule ahead…FF-gold for the DST potentially, or at least silver or copper or not-terrible. They face Wentz-Dan Jones-Flacco-A. Smith the next 4 weeks.
-- Arizona-DST is playing much better too, and they have a nice schedule ahead as well. The next five games: Cam-Goff-Dan Jones-Wentz-Mullens. I’m starting to trust this DST more and more as ‘reasonable’ to use.
Snap Counts of Interest:
46 = Hyde
12 = Bo S.
07 = D Dallas
43 = Dissly
40 = Olsen
13 = Hollister
38 = Maxx Williams
26 = D Arnold
36 = CH Edmonds
33 = Drake
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Patriots 23, Ravens 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was a back-and-forth game early…not much offense, not much to see, not an interesting watch. The Patriots took a 13-10 lead into halftime and then the rains really took over and by the end of the game it was almost unwatchable…like, literally…the cameras were wet/soaked on the lenses, the rain coming down so hard you couldn’t hardly see the action anyway…nor did the players have great visibility.
Credit the Patriots for being the tougher team in adverse conditions and really handling the Ravens. Baltimore scored a junk TD with 0:13 left, otherwise the Pats were walking away with a double-digit win in a game they were 7.0 dogs in.
The Ravens of 2019 are dead, replaced by a cheap imitation in 2020. Think about this – the Ravens have about the same core group returning, plus added a bunch of high profile defensive free agents, plus added J.K. Dobbins, plus added young WRs. This was the best regular season team in 2019, maybe the best, most dominant team I’ve ever seen…and a year later, with more firepower names added…they are a Week 12 loss (if) to Pittsburgh away from being a middle tier wild card team. Amazing what can happen in just one year.
What happened? Well, the defense didn’t get worse…so you have to look at the offense and blame the quarterback mostly. Same RBs, plenty of RB talent. Same WRs, young guys added. Baltimore lost all-world OT Ronnie Stanley a few weeks ago and Lamar Jackson doesn’t seem to have that old magic. The QB brought them that high in 2019…and you have to say he brought them that low/to the middle in 2020. We saw Cam Newton have a pop/MVP year a few years back, and then a bunch of losing record play since. It’s not an unheard-of thing.
Speaking of Cam…two wins in a row and he’s got the Pats back into the playoff picture, and everyone is all excited! So, OK…they beat the Jets by a miracle late collapse by NYJ two weeks ago, and then outlasted the Ravens in a monsoon this week. They’re back because of that? OK, believe it if you want.
They will probably beat Houston this week, because Houston is terrible, and that will REALLY get people talking. I see a path to 8 wins, but I’d be shocked if they got to 9 wins…and I would project more 7-8 wins. I’m not convinced of this team at all.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- All these backfields in this game are messy…weird…
NEW ENGLAND:
Damien Harris (22-121-0, 0-0-0/0) can’t stop running for 100+ yards in a game, and yet Rex Burkhead (6-31-0, 4-35-2/5) is the equal/better FF back.
Since Week 4, Harris has rushed for 100+ yards in a game three times in 6 games.
Since Week 4, Harris has averaged 9.6 PPR PPG…and Rex has averaged 9.6 PPR PPG.
Harris has three 100+ yard rushing games, two catches, and 1 TD total for the entire season.
Rex is averaging 3.0 catches per game his last 7 games with 6 TDs in that same span.
BALTIMORE:
They all suck, for FF.
The RB trio is all splitting meager carries, not getting close for TD runs, and not getting much pass game work hardly at all.
In nine games this season, the RB trio has 23 catches (2.4 per game) for 179 yards (19.8 yards per game) and no TDs. They’ve also split 7 rushing TDs near equal among them…Gus leading with 3 TDs…in 9 games.
Essentially the Ravens are giving us three RB4s to try and find hope in for a given week.
Who would have thought Rex Burkhead would consistently be the best PPR back among Harris-White-Michel-Dobbins-Ingram-Edwards? Welcome to 2020.
-- Lamar Jackson (24-34 for 249 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 11-55-0) isn’t playing terrible fantasy football, he’s just not that guy from 2019.
YTD, Lamar is 8th in PPG (4pts per pass TD) among QBs who have played 6 or more games. In 6pts per pass TD leagues…he drops out of the top 12. He’s kinda held that pattern all season…not up with the big boys, but inside the QB1 ranks in 4pts, but outside the QB1 performances in 6pts per pass TD.
He could finish strong and get into the top 5 by season’s end, but I don’t see it. However, the schedule is very favorable to do just that…finish strong and get into the top 5 PPG among 4pts per pass TD QBs.
-- Suddenly, Willie Snead (5-64-2/7) is the Ravens WR to have, not Dez Bryant. Snead, in his last 3 games, is averaging 4.7 catches, 72.3 yards, 0.67 TDs per game.
I find it very hard to trust any receiver with Lamar.
Lamar is trying to get the ball to Marquise Brown (2-14-0/7)…it’s not working. 2.0 rec., 18.3 yards per game the past 3 games…and he’s been a WR3 overall this season, and getting worse as the season goes on.
-- Jakobi Meyers (5-59-0/7 + a 24-yard TD pass) is WAYYY better than Marquise Brown, or Snead, or any WR for fantasy from these two rosters now.
I’m so impressed with how well Meyers is playing ball right now – this was a tough Ravens coverage, on him focused, and he played about as well as any WR I’ve seen take on this Ravens secondary. This Meyers thing is going to have legs into 2021+. Some guys just have ‘it’ for playing WR, he does. Not a WR1, but a nice WR2 in PPR.
-- NE rookie SAF Kyle Dugger (12 tackles, 0.5 TFLs) played his first game as a starter…and made a nice debut. He’s a talent.
Dugger’s tackles per snap played ratios are great. If he’s going to be a starter now…he might go on a similar IDP run as Jeremy Chinn has for Carolina. I want to see another game -- but guessing ahead…I think it’s more favorable than not for Dugger.
Snap Counts of Interest:
32 = Harris
20 = Rex
10 = White
29 = Dobbins
17 = Ingram
15 = Gus
62 = Mq Brown
45 = Snead
36 = Duvernay
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Packers 24, Jaguars 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
When I watched this live, I was like…good for the Jags, they played a tough game and shoulda won this thing. It was 17-17 after three quarters. 20-17 Jags into the 4th-quarter. Green Bay up 24-20 and Jacksonville drove with 2+ minutes left down to the GB 35-yard line, and the Jags had plenty of time to get into the end zone to win…and then on 2nd & 10 the Pack sacked Jake Luton, then on 3rd-down they sacked him again…then it was 4th & a million and…ball game. It was a ‘scare’ for Green Bay.
But when I re-watched this, I realized the Jags tried hard but the Packers were kinda going through the motions on a game they thought they’d win easy, and in the cold, wet, wind they did what they had to do. The Packers blew some opportunities and kinda muddled. It was one of those games where it was close, but not really…I don’t think the Packers were ever really panicked.
Green Bay is now (7-2) and their schedule is begging them to finish (14-2), but 12-13 wins is probably more likely. After they face the Colts Week 11…they may not play a team with a winning record (by season’s end) the rest of the season.
Jacksonville loses its 8th in a row. Trying to get into that Tank for Trevor race/#1 spot, and I’m sure Trevor is praying the Jags figure out a way to get to that #1 pick versus having to play in New York. The Jaguars just placed rookie CB C.J. Henderson on I.R., and he’s like their best player…so a (1-15) finish is in range more and more.
Not a lot of earth-shattering notes from this game. It went according to plan, for the most part, and then the cold, wet, wind affected things as well.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4-149-1/6) is on a hot run the past few weeks. Three notes…
1) This could’ve all been Allen Lazard’s FF-goodness, but when I like a WR they get hurt and when I hate a WR -- they get these numbers.
2) MVS scored a 78-yard TD here aided by a referee knocking into/picking a tackler and springing him for the extra 30 yards and a score, because of course he did. I’ve never had something like that happen for one of my FF starts, but my opponents get this type of stuff all the time...it seems, doesn’t it?
3) I’d sell MVS off this as fast as you could…thrown into a deal to sweeten it. This will disappear fast when Lazard returns. There is no MVS future for FF.
-- Davante Adams (8-66-1/12) got tangled up feet with a DB and hurt his calf/ankle and left the game for some time, but then returned for an amazing, leaping TD catch to seal the win. I bet he’s sore, but he’ll be fine for Week 11…is my assumption.
-- Robert Tonyan (3-33-0/4) had a ‘meh’ FF game, or actually…this is TE1 work these days…but note Rodgers just missed him on a 15+ yard throw, and then a heart-breaking 20-40+ yarder where Tonyan was sprinting open downfield and Rodgers underthrew it and was offline with it…or it might have been a long TD catch and run.
In a sea of TE2s trying to have a TE1 week…Tonyan is still viable.
-- D.J. Chark (4-56-0/5) had a ‘meh’ FF game, but also note he was open by 2-3 yards on a 50+ yard bomb TD but Luton underthrew it/the wind caught it and DJC had to stop and wait and the DB caught up and the ball went off the DBs helmet. You almost had +12 to his PPR week.
-- Keelan Cole (5-47-1/5) had a good game and returned a punt for a TD. There’s one thing you can count on with Cole – there will be no effort the following week to get him the ball, no matter how well he plays.
Facing the Steelers this week…bet against him. It’s a shame, he deserves better.
-- Everybody wants James Robinson (23-109-0, 2-3-0/5)…in the sense that they pine for him, if they didn’t get him preseason, as the answer to all their RB issues.
There is no answer to your RB issues at this stage…and, actually, a whole bunch of answers every week at the same time.
If you don’t have Cook-Kamara (or healthy CMC) the names atop the RB PPG board are guys who are basically the RBs who haven’t gotten hurt…or the names of the guys that have replaced those who got hurt.
D’Andre Swift, Gio Bernard, Antonio Gibson, Nyheim Hines, J.D. McKissic are RB1s who are one good game and one bad game by Robinson away from being the same output per game guys the 2nd-half of the season. You’re caught up in ‘names’, when there is RB opportunity all over.
Kalen Ballage was a flyer pickup a few weeks ago and is now an RB1 to believe in. You should’ve had McKissic in PPR all along the past 6-7 weeks. But you want to pine for James Robinson instead.
You think you have RB issues…everyone has RB issues. Solutions are cheap off waivers week-to-week, they are expensive chasing the James Robinson’s of the world. Any RB getting the bulk of the work is valuable right now – the best ones are those that fall into the end zone more frequently.
Since Week 7, here’s the top 10 PPR PPG RB leaders (2 or more games played):
Dalvin Cook
Kamara
J. Robinson
Nyheim Hines
Antonio Gibson
Gio Bernard
Jamaal Williams
Wayne Gallman
Kalen Ballage
Josh Jacobs
Four names you crave…six names you think are ‘my RBs are killing me’.
-- The review on Jake Luton’s (18-35 for 169 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) 2nd start in the NFL?
He did as well as he could’ve on the road, in wet-cold-win conditions with an inferior team. He looks totally capable, and for the 2nd week in a row…he should have been on the winning team. Had a chance late but couldn’t seal the deal.
-- The GB-DST is doing OK, they’ve had some good matchups lately, they are winning games – they just aren’t scoring much for FF. They are 19th in FF scoring per game among all DSTs YTD.
They held a weak Jags offense to 20 points here, but just one turnover and a solid 3.0 sacks. You hope for more FF scoring from them in these types of matchups, but GB-DST doesn’t give it to you typically.
They have a solid schedule the rest of the way, but I don’t know that they’ll score enough real FF points to matter. They’ll win games, but not help you win FF games perhaps. But in a sea of bad DST tallies this year, you have to find hope in strange places sometimes. Their schedule ahead is at least something to consider.
Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = A Jones
31 = J Williams
08 = Ervin
56 = Chark
55 = Conley
52 = Cole
53 = JRob
10 = Ogunbowale
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Browns 10, Texans 7
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Wow...was this a waste of my precious time to re-watch. The most exciting thing that happened was when Nick Chubb ran a long way with the ball and made a quick left turn at Albuquerque/before the goal line and ruined fantasy owner’s hearts -- but filled mine with joy as I got the cheap Texans cover. Otherwise, this was an incredibly boring game played in the cold and wind and involved two teams that are pretty weak and one of them won. My main note from this game…it was terrible and provided not much to discuss.
The Texans are so bad, but you have to say the Browns are too…they let Houston hang around all game until the final minute. I don’t know if the Texans have any purchase protection plan on Deshaun Watson, but they may want to look into a possible refund of their purchase.
The Texans have fallen to (2-7) and man are they checked out on this season. No spark. No enthusiasm. Just going through the motions. They might get to 4 wins at best.
The Browns are not much better than Houston but are somehow (6-3) and running towards the playoffs. If they beat Philly Week 11, I will start to believe they are getting to 9 wins and the playoffs. Lose Week 11, and it will be a fight to get there.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Nick Chubb (19-126-1, 0-0-0/1) looked fine, like 101% ready for action. Everyone's all excited about him again, with good reason, because of the 100+ yards and a TD…and an ‘almost’ TD.
Consider two things…
1) His late game long run was fluky, as Houston was just trying to stop the run-up-=the-middle drive killing them and Chubb went outside and then went untouched down the sidelines with barely anyone chasing him. Nice moment, but if that 59-yard run didn’t happen…18 carries for 67 yards and a TD. Nice, but not ‘wowza’.
2) Once again, Chubb saw 1 target in a game.
Targets in his five games played this season: 1-1-1-0-1.
If you have him in PPR, you better get a TD with you 100 yards…or you have another Damien Harris.
-- I’d use this Chubb moment to get the real RB1 (PPR) from this team – Kareem Hunt (19-104-0, 3-28-0/4). If any Hunt owner fears Chubb, and more do than you think…they might think they’re dumping Hunt on you. Not cheap, but some motivation to sell if you give it to them.
Hunt has been really good all season. Since Week 2, he’s 8th in PPR PPG among RBs (5 or more games played). He’s a steady PPR RB1, who feels like a backup people fear will be the 30% share guy in no time. At no time, has that ever been true this season…he’s been the better 50/50 a lot of the time. Hunt can co-exist with Chubb and be an RB1 in PPR doing it.
Everyone is crying about wanting to trade for James Robinson, wishing/thinking he’s the answer to their RB woes…while Hunt is like 2.0 PPR PPG away from the same production this entire season, and no one is craving him the same way.
-- The BIG REVENGE GAME for Duke Johnson (14-54-0, 0-0-0/1), look out world…a great RB1 event is about to happen!!! https://youtu.be/_asNhzXq72w
I forgot one rule that trumps ‘revenge game’…the fact that Duke Johnson sucks at football. I overlooked the most obvious thing.
David Johnson will come back and claim his starting job in two weeks and produce these miserable fantasy numbers. Like, I’ve said this past week – you don’t need to hold DJ if you see/need a spark now with a roster move. DJ will return to this awful offense that doesn’t throw to him just in time for the run game schedule to get super-tough. DJ is an RB1.5-2.0 in this environment with so many weak RB scoring weeks…but he’s not killing it, just like most RBs are not. You’re just hoping your guy falls into the end zone. Rex Burkhead has been more valuable than the HOU RBs.
-- Jordan Akins (1-5-0/1) has lost all his momentum from when he got hurt and missed 4 weeks. The promising start to the season has turned into a giant pile of nothing.
You see, the Texans’ season is over…so it’s a great time to see if this Darren Fells (1-15-0/1) kid can be the future for the organization. Sure, he’s a 34+ year old journeyman tight end…but he has the look/movements of a 33+ year old tight end. You go Romeo Crennel! Lead the way to the future, our fearless leader. https://youtu.be/yalRLvkn_Ig?t=15
-- Rashard Higgins (3-48-0/4) drew too much Bradley Roby covering him + the windy, low passing day, so his potential for a nice fantasy game was squashed…BUT…
Higgins did lead all receivers in yards and (tied) in catches here…in a down receiving game for all.
Higgins did see two other targets for 30+ yards, wiped away by P.I. penalties by the defense.
Higgins just looked like Baker’s guy, but I’m not sure what that is FF-worth.
This potential is hiding behind the last two games played in windy, low scoring, low pass game contests. The last time CLE played in decent weather and OBJ was out (Week 7), Higgins caught 6 passes for 110 yards.
-- The Browns last two games being played in windy, blustery, offensive suppressing conditions is a bit of a head fake on their decent/nice fantasy scoring those games. The Browns have a solid enough defense, but not great -- but they do have a few good matchups ahead that might include sloppy or cold weather to help them…
Week 11 vs. PHI is taking on a bad offense and bad O-Line.
Week 12 at JAX is favorable.
Week 15 at NYG could be a good matchup in bad (for offense) conditions, and ditto Week 16 at NYJ.
Good schedule and this is a team that won’t be tanking or checked out…they’ll be in the wild card to the end.
Snap Counts of Interest:
38 = Hodge
38 = Landry
38 = Higgins
16 = DPJ
55 = Hooper
36 = Bryant
23 = Njoku
38 = Hunt
28 = Chubb
54 = Duke J
02 = Prosise
34 = Fells
24 = Akins
18 = Ph Brown
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Raiders 37, Broncos 12
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The odd thing about this game was…it ended up a blowout, but Denver was going toe-to-toe the 1st-half, and at the goal line and just threw a TD pass to take a 12-10 lead (XP pending) but a penalty erased it and on the next play Drew Lock threw a terrible pick and the game turned from there. Denver could’ve had the halftime lead, but they blew it and then just gave it away from there. The Raiders didn’t win this as much as they just let Denver faceplant and walked right by them.
Las Vegas is now (6-3), and headed to the playoffs…huge game with KC Week 11, one I assume they’ll lose big and then go on with their wild card chase – which they will get with a 10 win or better season. If LV defeats KC Week 11…all hell will break loose in the AFC West! Still, KC is going to win that division.
Denver (3-6) is moving towards its destiny…out of the playoffs, contemplating firing Vic Fangio, but needed to replace/dump Drew Lock. All three of those things are John Elway’s fault…but nothing is ever Elway’s fault, so none of them may be addressed this season. Terrible schedule the rest of the way for a team that is checking out…Denver should finish with 4-5 wins tops.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- How long does Vic Fangio…or John Elway…let this Drew Lock (23-47 for 257 yards, 1 TD/4 INTs) go on for?
7 TDs/10 INTs this season…with a 55.0% Comp. Pct.
9 TD passes in his last 10 games, back to 2019…Justin Herbert is getting that in like 3 games, as a rookie. Lock is not under major duress due to a bad O-Line…Lock just sucks. The faster they admit it, the faster they can change their fate.
…but John Elway is so awful at picking QBs, it doesn’t really matter.
Because Denver is so bad at QB, whether they stick with Lock…turn to Brett Rypien…or draft a new wrong one in 2021…all the related weapons are hurt by it for FF.
Tim Patrick (4-61-0/6) is having to pull off miracle catches to even have catches week-to-week.
Jerry Jeudy (4-68-0/8) is an average WR, made out to be a great WR. He’s just ‘there’…and catching just 49.3% of his targets, a bad number for a WR. He officially has 3 drops, but he has 6+ by my count…and I’m not a harsh judge of those things – he’s just getting favorable calls from the scorekeepers to protect their guy.
Noah Fant (3-18-0/7) can only be so good in this mess. Ditto the outlook for Courtland Sutton ahead.
A tougher schedule ahead for the QB/WRs/team…I want nothing to do with the DEN WRs for the ROS. And I assume for 2021 as well, but let’s see what happens this offseason. I assume it all goes poorly.
-- But I’d rather have the Denver WRs than the Las Vegas ones for fantasy. Why? The Raiders wide receivers never see the ball consistently.
Nelson Agholor (1-8-0/4) is their #1 WR…and he got 4 targets here, continuing his string of low target games.
Henry Ruggs (3-31-0/4) and Bryan Edwards (1-16-0/1) are ghosts…why did they draft all these WRs, not to throw to them?
Even Darren Waller (3-37-0/5) is quietly stalling out. You think Waller is some kind of TE god you wish you had for FF right now, because your TEs suck? Waller has not had a game over 37 yards in three weeks…no games over 50 yards the past five games.
Really, looking back on it, Waller has had two monster games and then a bunch of random/solid/not-exciting work…just like most TEs are putting in.
Since Week 8, Waller is the #9 TE in PPR PPG.
Since Week 3, Waller is top 5 in PPG, but he nowhere close to Travis Kelce (18.3 PPR PPG to 11.3)…but is a half-step better than the throng of TE2s trying to be TE1s (Waller is 1.5 PPR PPG from being #10 since Week 3). He’s closer to falling out of TE1 status than he is getting close to Kelce. BUT, with that said, all non-Kelce TEs suck and Waller is probably the next best thing among all the TE things out there…but it’s not been as good as you think, if you don’t own him and know it/live with it lately.
-- Jon Gruden is like Mike Zimmer…if he can get a lead, he will run it every play if he can.
Las Vegas ran the ball 41 times this game for 203 yards and 4 TDs.
There were 41 rushed + 16 catches in this game = 57 touches.
46 of the 57 touches were to run game and RB pass game.
WRs saw 8 touches total. You can’t exist with that for fantasy with their WRs.
Devontae Booker (16-81-2, 1-2-0/1) matters on a certain level. Lately, he’s getting, as a backup, similar touches to J.K. Dobbins or Jonathan Taylor or Darrell Henderson (among others)…and Booker is much more productive with his work of late – 3 TDs his last 2 games.
-- Let me just throw this out there…
The Raiders-DST has started to get back their injured and COVID DBs. Their D-Line is starting to rush the pass a little bit better. Their schedule is easing up. They held Cleveland to 6 points in the wind/cold Week 8. They held Denver to 12 points here with 5 turnovers. They are slowly moving from bottom 5-10 in defensive metrics to middle of the pack this season.
All that to say…Week 13 at NYJ…the Raiders-DST may be worth the early pickup if your league is hoarding DSTs (as they seem to be all over this year. Why? Because all defenses stink unless they are playing bad offenses, so people are searching in vain for DST hope).
Snap Counts of Interest:
45 = Ruggs
43 = Agholor
34 = Renfrow
20 = Bry Edwards
43 = Jacobs
26 = Booker
40 = Gordon
21 = Lindsay
10 = Royce Freeman
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Lions 30, Football Team 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I had forgotten, until the re-watch, that the Lions led this game 24-3 midway through the 3rd-quarter…and it seemed over at the time. Three TDs over the next 15 minutes of play got the F-Team tied with 6+ minutes left to play. They exchanged field goals from there, with F-Team tying it 27-27 with 0:16 left.
Looks like we’re heading to OT.
BUT…with that 0:16 left, the first play of the drive, the Lions threw an incomplete pass but Chase Young trying to win the award for stupidest play of 2020…was two steps from Matt Stafford as the ball was thrown and then he came up to a turned-away-Stafford and pushed him from behind, not hard, but hard enough…and drew the roughing penalty – and suddenly the Lions were a 8-15-yard play away from possible makeable FG range. Detroit then got a quick 9-yard throw, and then Matt Prater nailed a 59-yarder at the buzzer to win it.
Tag this loss to Chase Young, who has quietly been terrible/a disappointment all season. Young has a meager 3.5 sacks this season, and just 4 QB hits total…Everson Griffen had 5 QB hits in this game alone. But Washington couldn’t draft Justin Herbert #2 because they had Dwayne Haskins, so they were all set…and Chase Young was so generational. So far…not a great decision for a franchise who should change their name to the ‘Bad Decisions’…
I’m starting to think maybe Ron Rivera is just a horrific head coach. I can’t figure it out. Washington should be in 1st-place in this crap division, but Rivera is like an unlucky rabbit’s foot making decisions and losing close games. Rivera is (2-15) in his last 17 games coached. Washington is (2-7) and somehow still alive in the NFC East race. We see them hitting 4 wins and not winning the division.
Detroit is now (4-5) and still in the wild card race…and they have a schedule that might allow them to not only stay in the race for a bit, but make a little noise for the NFC North if GB falters. Detroit has three winnable games ahead…at CAR, HOU, at CHI…the Lions could (in make-believe world) be (7-5) hosting GB, who with some pro-Lions luck could by (8-5) going into that game…a battle for 1st-place could ensue.
Now, this is the Lions we’re talking about…so there is NO WAY they could have that happen, but it’s not totally dead for them yet. We project them to wind up with 6-7 wins at this point by season’s end.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s start with Alex Smith (38-55 for 390 yards, 0 TD/0 INT)…
Back-to-back games with 300+ yards passing has everyone excited but note that this is not ‘normal’ for Alex Smith, or desired by the coaches.
The F-Team was 20-3 in Week 9 before closing the gap some late, and down 24-3 here, before racing back into things. When they’re down big they are throwing, a lot, obviously. So, Smith has a ton of attempts the past two games, but it’s for lower yards per…and he has 1 TD/3 INTs total in 104 pass attempts this season.
Smith is playing an even more dink-and-dunk game than ever before. If you want big F-Team pass game work/output, you better pray Washington gets down big fast and has to all-throw back into it.
Comments on some guys Smith is throwing to…
J.D. McKissic (7-43-0/15) is going to lead all NFL RBs in catches this season IF Smith stays in the rest of the season. 14 and 15 targets in Smith’s two starts…and if Washington gets up and isn’t throwing as much, this number will dip – but JDM will still be the top target for the dink-and-dunker.
Logan Thomas (4-66-0/5) could suffer a dip when/if the pass game dips when Washington ever plays with a lead/close in games. The Washington O-Line is falling apart, and Thomas is needed for blocking more than ever. He’ll still get you 3-4 catches in games, and then you just hope Smith throws a TD to him…but Smith has 1 TD pass in 104 pass attempts this season, so good luck with all that.
Cam Sims (4-54-0/5) still looks really good to me, but in 55 throws with Sims playing 95%+ of the snaps here…Sims only saw 5 targets. Makes me worry about getting too excited about the future, but I want to be…
Steve Sims (5-46-0/6) got good targeting, but he is really inconsequential for the most part. It’s like he’s not even there. When he gets a target, you’re like…oh, yeah he’s on the team still. He played 45% of the snaps in a heavy pass game
-- Matt Stafford (24-33 for 276 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) hurt his throwing hand in this game…and has been a disappointment all season, and here facing what was the #1 pass defense in the NFL at the time – he gets 3 TD passes with 276 yards. I can’t explain how football works…
It was a clunky performance, but it worked. Stafford hit a 55-yard TD pass to Marvin Hall (2-61-1/3) early…where the covering DB bumped into Hall and fell down and left Hall wide open for an easy score. Two key 3rd-stops were wiped off by late hit penalties to extend drives to give Stafford more numbers. It was one of the luckiest games he’ll ever play…but it worked for FF.
Stafford is playing through the hand injury and may get Kenny Golladay back soon, which will kill off any Marvin Hall FF-hopes and send Marvin Jones (8-96-1/10) back to purgatory.
Thank you, Marvin…for doing nothing early in the season and thus me cutting you and then you score 4 TDs in your last 3 games. Not for FF-me he hasn’t.
-- Everson Griffen (3 tackles, 1 sack, 5 QB hits) has had a terrible season so far, but he has played Washington twice the past 3 games…once with Dallas and once with Detroit (after his trade). In those two games, Griffen has 2.0 sacks (of 3.0 all season) and 7 QB hits (of 9 all season).
The best pass rushing IDP facing Washington’s O-Line is money for sacks…and they just lost another key OL for this week/Week 11!!
-- Griffen had those 5 QB hits, and the Lions tallied 8 QB hits in all…a very average/normal amount for a team in a game. The F-Team, with it’s great D-Line…they got 1 QB hit all game with Smith throwing 55 times. What in the Football Team is going on? Washington had 5 sacks and 9 QB hits the week before, so I don’t know how they flopped here. It’s not like Detroit has a great O-Line. I’ll assume a blip until further notice.
Washington-DST faces Cincy, the 2nd-most sacked team in the NFL. If they do not log 4+ sacks this week, something is wrong with the F-Team defense.
*Late note: D’Andre Swift went on concussion protocol on Thursday, with no signs prior from game play etc., so it had to happen in practice. If he is out…I think Kerryon Johnson might get a 70/30 split of work here and be a surprise of the week. Most will think AP, but AP played 8 snaps this game…Kerryon 9. Not that the snap count proves anything…more proves Detroit is ‘over’ AP, potentially. Worst case, Kerryon would be a PPR back in a sense.
Snap Counts of Interest:
43 = Swift
09 = Kerryon
07 = AP
86 = McLaurin
83 = Cam Sims
40 = Stv Sims
29 = Is Wright
62 = McKissic
33 = Gibson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Giants 27, Eagles 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game really struck a chord with me, a very telltale, pivotal game that I think could change the Eagles management/team for 2021+.
Consider the backdrop going into this game…
The Eagles went in leading the much-maligned NFC East with 3 wins, and the rest of the division had 2 wins. Philly facing NYG in a game that gave them a chance to leap to 4 wins, effectively putting down the much maligned Giants, and really pushing away with the division. All the Eagles had to do was win this Week 10 game…beat the lowly Giants, a team without Saquon Barkley AND with Daniel Jones at QB on purpose. Plus, the Eagles just had an extra week to prepare and got back healthy a couple players.
This had to be a game that the Eagles stormed in off the jump and put the Giants away with impunity and thus send a statement.
The exact opposite of all of that happened.
It would be one thing if the Giants got a fluky fumble, or a tipped INT pick-six, or whatever luck could fall their way to get out to a lead…even so, a superior, well-prepared Eagles team would overcome that and win this game. Instead, the Giants rammed it down the Eagles’ throats…it was 14-3 NYG at halftime, probably the worst the Eagles have looked all year (and that’s saying something).
The Eagles climbed back into it, as you would expect from a (supposed) superior team, just down 21-17 with 20+ minutes left of play. Surely, the Eagles would win this. The Giants stuffed the Eagles for the final 20 minutes and extended their lead to double-digits and really WON this game. No luck – just the Giants, who are not good, being the better team.
If I were the General Manager of this Eagles team, strike that…if I were the owner of the Eagles team, I would have watched this game in the context and then decided I was going to fire everyone and trade Carson Wentz in the offseason, unless a miracle playoff run occurred at season’s end. We could make a lot of valid excuses for Philly – all the O-Line and WR/TE injuries, etc. But there was no excuse for being outplayed by the Giants in this spot – outplayed, and out-efforted. The Giants played like the more confident, urgent, sound team…whereas the Eagles just slept through this HUGE game.
Doug Pederson should be under the gun big time for this game, for this team laying such an egg (on top of how this whole season is going). Carson Wentz, the verdict is in – you are not the leader of men to take this team to the next level. You are a solid, gritty QB…but you did not deserve to replace Nick Foles after the Super Bowl season. And for that, and the sad state of this roster and now coaching staff – the GM should get the boot as well. A fresh ‘reboot’ is needed. Doug Pederson deserves to coach again; Wentz deserves another chance too…just not here. It’s time for a change.
The funny thing is, the Eagles are in great shape to win the division at (3-5-1). The Giants are at 3 wins too, but at (3-7). The Eagles have a game lead, or more in a sense. They have the upper hand in the NFC East. However, their schedule does not bode well. If they lose to at CLE this week, then I don’t think the Eagles will win this division. If Philly loses Week 11, they then face SEA, at GB, NO, at ARI the following 4 weeks. They could be (3-10-1) after Week 15 if they lose to CLE this week…but still possibly just be a game out of first place. Beating CLE this week gives them some cushion to lose their next four in a row and still be OK. We see them finishing with 6 wins…and that could be good enough to win the division because (6-9-1) will beat (6-10).
The Giants played really well here, considering the team that they have…and that’s been true all year. One of the best defenses in the NFL, as we’ve been discussing since about Weeks 3-4, all while they were mocked by all the analysts. NYG needs to find 4 wins their final 6 games to get to 7 wins. It’s not likely, considering their schedule ahead. We see 6 wins max., and that may leave them a half game short of the NFC East, but that’s with the big IF that Philly gets to 6 wins too.
The Giants are the best team in the NFC East…I just don’t know if there is enough time for them to pass Philly to claim it.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Carson Wentz (21-37 for 208 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) played some bad football here. He had some of his best weapons back, so that excuse is off the table.
Wentz is becoming new-Jameis (Winston) – so much better down 14-21 points and scrapping to a close loss with garbage points late. Some of Wentz’s issue was an emerging great Giants defense…some of it is that Wentz is a ‘C’ QB that analysts still proclaim is an ‘A’ because he had a hot stretch of games in 2017. Since 2018, the Eagles are 17-18-1 with him as a starter…in a weak division. This season, he now has 12 TDs/12 INTs total in 9 starts with 58.1% Comp. Pct.
Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson and Joe Burrow have bad O-Lines too…they don’t ever look like they are bust QBs, but Wentz does every other series.
Jalen Hurts (2-0-0) SHOULD be inserted Week 12 if they lose Week 11 at CLE, but he won’t be. I’ve seen this a million times in the NFL with head coaches, Doug Pederson, for right or for wrong, is going down on the Wentz ship. So, much so that Hurts looks like he has not been developed or prepared for such an event…on purpose, in a sense. However, the new age QBs…they don’t need ‘reps’ and practice with the 1s, if they’re good enough they’ll just step in like they’ve been there for years (see: Herbert, Burrow, Luton, Tua).
I know this, once Hurts goes in…the city will not let Pederson change back. I think he knows that and is trying to make it NOT happen, yet. The Eagles will probably win the division, so Pederson will believe he was right all along. BUT a loss at CLE is likely going to lead to a change…even if that is Pederson fired and an assistant elevated after a CLE loss.
-- I’ll judge the WRs/TEs as if Wentz is going to be there for a while but note everything goes ‘up in the air’ if Hurts takes over – totally different style of offense.
Alshon Jeffrey (0-0-0/1) debuted/2020 and nobody cared. He doesn’t want to be there, nor do they want him there…why they didn’t cut him prior is beyond me.
Jalen Reagor (4-47-0/7) is going to pop one of these weeks…when a better matchup occurs, but the problem is he has a bunch of bad matchups ahead. You know who covered Reagor here? Defensive Player of the Year candidate James Bradberry. Why is that important? Because it explains Reagor’s ‘meh’ numbers AND it lets you know the opponents know who the top WR is for Wentz.
Reagor has a problem with Denzel Ward this week, but then Week 12 v. SEA (with Wentz) will project nicely. Week 14 with Marshon Lattimore is an issue, maybe. Week 15 v. Patrick Peterson, not great.
Dallas Goedert (4-33-0/6) looked really good here. Gave me renewed faith in him. Wentz needs to attack with Goedert more. I was very much encouraged by what I saw here, but still Goedert is a random evet week-to-week because of Wentz.
What happened to Travis Fulgham (1-8-0/5) as the best WR in football? Not sure. The Giants have a good defense is all I can say. He benefits from Reagor now taking the top coverage. Give him grace, he’s been consistently very good/great for several weeks prior.
-- Dare I say that Daniel Jones (21-28 for 244 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 9-64-1) is the better fantasy QB than Carson Wentz now?
I mean, Jones is a horrific passer…like the Manning’s, and their dumb Academy, should be utterly ashamed of themselves for endorsing this train wreck…but he can run the ball a little bit. 60+ yards rushing in 3 of his last 4 games. Can I say this – Jones might be better or ‘same’ for fantasy as/than Lamar Jackson, doing the same things…bad passing, heavy running.
Jones is running more on purpose, because that’s all he brings to the table. Wentz was doing that weeks ago but stopped like Week 7 on.
-- For fantasy 2020, right now…
Daniel Jones > Carson Wentz
And
Wayne Gallman (18-53-2, 1-7-0/2) > Miles Sanders (15-850, 2-10-0/5)
Welcome to 2020!!
Gallman has rushed for a TD in four straight games, 5 TDs in four games.
-- The Eagles ILBs were the best FF thing out there this week…
Alex Singleton (16 tackles, 1 TFL) has started four games in a row, and has averaged 9.3 tackles, 0.75 QB hits, 0.25 TFLs per game.
T.J. Edwards (12 tackles) is becoming a tackling machine for the amount of snaps he’s playing. He’s started the last two weeks and played 75%+ of the snaps each game, for the first time all year at those snap %’s…and he has 12.5 total tackles per game in those two games.
Snap Counts of Interest:
42 = Gallman
15 = Morris
62 = Goedert
21 = Rodgers
48 = Sanders
18 = B Scott
