- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Packers 30, Eagles 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
No one was surprised by the Packers winning here, but there was some surprise that Carson Wentz got benched and was (finally) replaced by Jalen Hurts. That move is all there is to talk about from this game – and whether there is an official change happening or not. We’ll get to that.
As far as the game goes, here is what happened…
Aaron Rodgers constantly threw to Davante Adams, and defenses are still surprised by that and cannot stop it…as Adams scored 2 more TDs in an easy Green Bay victory.
End of summary.
The Packers led 23-3 early 4th-quarter. Game going as expected/like these teams have shown in recent weeks…the Eagles defense put up some fight, but the offense could barely produce as Carson Wentz’s descent into a bad/bust quarterback continued with him afraid to throw the ball, missing reads, getting hit, throwing into danger and so on. So, Jalen Hurts finally came in for a spark…and instantly provided said spark. A TD pass on his first drive to cut it to 23-10 GB. Then a quick three and out by the Philly defense on the GB offense, followed by Jalen Reagor returning the ensuing punt for a TD and suddenly it was just 23-16 GB with 6:30 to go.
If you watched this game with the sound off and just watched the Eagles team the entire game…it was a depressing ‘march of the dead’ for three quarters of play. No life in any of the players. Playing with no hope or care. Instantly defeated…especially on offense. A lot of slow jogging off the field after failed drives, a stoic sideline, etc. BUT then Jalen Hurts brought some life to the team with his first TD. Then Jalen Reagor’s punt return had the Eagles looking like they had just won the Super Bowl.
How Doug Pederson turns away from that change in mood/team unity/hope as ‘the manager’ of this business…I have no idea? But he probably will. Again, we’ll discuss the QBs in a moment.
Green Bay got a somewhat lucky long TD run to put it away – the kind where the defense is desperately selling out to stop the opponent to try and get the ball back with time evaporating and they got caught and Aaron Jones stole back all the momentum, and the win…and blew the Eagles backdoor cover.
The Packers are now (9-3), chasing (10-2) New Orleans for the #1 seed. Green Bay has four winnable games ahead. They probably won’t win those 4 games. I’m not sure which one they’ll blow but note that had the Eagles somehow found a way to win this game in the end…the Packers would be (4-4) in their last 8 games…a lucky-to-win beat of Jacksonville away from being under .500 in that span. The Packers feel overrated to me again.
The Eagles are now (3-8-1) and suddenly 1.5 games out of first place in the NFC East with NYG’s big upset of Seattle this week and then Washington’s shock win to put them (5-7). If Philly can win three of their next 4 games, they got a shot at 6 wins (with their tie) being good enough to win the NFC East, but the Giants are holding all the cards in this race now. It’s highly unlikely the Eagles can win three of 4. We project them (4-11-1) in the end.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Will Doug Pederson change to Jalen Hurts (5-12 for 109 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 5-29-0)?
My logic says he will.
My NFL logic says he absolutely will not.
The logical case for a change is obvious – beyond everyone calling for it the media. Hurts brought a spark, but more importantly Hurts looked good. He didn’t look overwhelmed. His first long pass play completion to Jalen Reagor was a thing of beauty…lofted down the field in perfect stride, in a perfect spot. He capped that first drive with a 4th & 18 play, buying time, seeing something develop and throwing a perfect anticipatory 30+ yard pass to Greg Ward on the button for a TD.
One beautiful throw could be lucky…two of them on the same drive – get ready, because Hurts can throw the ball. He knows what he is doing. He didn’t throw for 32 TDs/8 INTs, 69.7% Comp. Pct., and 275.0 passing yards per game at Oklahoma in 2019 because he is ‘just a runner’.
FYI, he also ran for 1,298 yards and 20 TDs to go with all that last season in college.
Hurts is a rock-solid character, a leader, and he’s not the type to get overwhelmed by the moment. Oh, AND he’s better than Tua Tagovailoa (sorry, Nick Saban). Hurts is as ready, mentally (calm and cool and hits the ground running) as any of the high-end QB prospects/Justin Herbert-Joe Burrow types walking into the NFL.
Hurts is not as talented a thrower as Herbert-Burrow, no doubt. But Hurts bring an X-factor to the table that they don’t – Hurts is built like a 1st-round draft pick running back playing QB. He has 4.5+ speed but is all muscle, a notorious workout/body builder type – he runs the ball in a physical manner that would put some RBs to shame. When he gets loose from the pocket or runs on purpose – he will produce on the ground, and probably mow some defenders over with his physique.
Hurts is as ready as any rookie who was kept away from ‘the 1s’ all season could be – Justin Herbert didn’t miss a beat with that. Hurts certainly can’t be any worse than what Carson Wentz has been doing the past few weeks (dying in front of our eyes).
Hurts is the best QB to play if Doug Pederson wants to win. One-part, Hurts is ‘ready’. One part, Wentz is so awful they can’t go back there.
However, NFL Logic is different from our human logic.
You see, they (NFL head coaches) know football better than anyone on the planet (so they believe) and the fans are dumb and will not bully NFL head coaches, who are treated like football gods, into doing something they don’t want to do. And Doug Pederson does not want to make a change off his buddy Carson Wentz…for loyalty reasons, and perhaps because he never wanted Jalen Hurts. Benching Wentz for Hurts is probably an admission that Pederson was wrong, and the GM was right.
I think NFL head coaches would rather go (0-16) in a season than ever having to admit a GM knew more than they did about anything. Pederson can simply say, “the Saints are playing top defensive ball in the league right now, so I don’t want to throw a rookie into that” as an excuse to give Wentz one more opportunity.
It will say a lot about Doug Pederson when he makes his decision this week. Post-game, he said he was going to evaluate everything. We won’t know until Tuesday or Wednesday, perhaps. If he really cares about ‘team’, ‘family’, ‘winning’…and if he cares about Wentz as a human, he’ll go with Hurts for the betterment of the team and to save Wentz from himself. If he only cares about showing the GM, the city, the world who is in charge of things – he will try and get Wentz one more chance to prove ‘em all wrong.
If Pederson goes with Wentz, they better win out and win a Super Bowl…because Pederson is so fired if he does not make a change right now, and it results in more sadness/ugly losses.
…also, that may be what Pederson wants – to get fired, to get away from Philly because this team is set up for disaster in 2021 with their CAP situation and the weak players they have overall.
-- We know if Wentz returns Week 14, against the Saints…it will be a disaster for all involved. But what would a change to Hurts for now and forever do for the Eagles FF-related things? Let’s talk receivers first…
Answer: We don’t know.
None of us has seen Hurts working with the 1st-team offense under normal circumstances. He was thrown into this situation (a 20-point deficit) and was just looking for anything. He didn’t seem to be discriminating.
My best estimate would be a Lamar Jackson comparison…
Jalen Reagor (1-34-0/1) is his Marquise Brown…and that has been an erratic thing, with spike moments in Baltimore.
Dallas Goedert will be his Mark Andrews…and that has been good for TDs and moderate on everything else.
Running QBs tend to throw for 200 +/- yards in games, more 150-200 yards because of the QB running more, and the success you can find in the overall run game with opponents worried about the QB running off the read option. The passing game FF-results are going to suffer, but not any worse than it was with Wentz.
We just don’t know if Hurts will have a favorite target. Reagor has to be the favorite to be his favorite, and if he is the guy…everyone else will not matter aside from 1-2 catches in games among the WR group.
-- Hurts’ impact on the running game?
Well, it’s probably some help for Miles Sanders (10-31-0) rushing yardage totals, but a killer for his receiving/PPR ways. Lamar Jackson hardly ever throws to his RBs. See, also: Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara.
The focus/worry about Hurts will help Sanders some as a rusher, BUT I’d really worry Sanders gets beat up/hurt with all the up the middle running.
Also, running QBs tend to take a majority of the rushing TDs. Just ask Damien Harris, the Baltimore-RBBC trio, and Alvin Kamara/Latavius Murray. Hurts is built better to run the ball from the goal line than Sanders.
Jordan Howard (4-19-0) might see some more time too, because (a) he’s built better for the interior pounding, and (b) is a better RB than Sanders…in my opinion, always has been (see: 2019 season in Philly with both for my state’s evidence). However, that’s my vision NOT Doug Pederson’s, who thinks Sanders is a god.
Boston Scott (2-9-0) might as well retire. The Darren Sproles role doesn’t exist with Hurts.
-- TE side note…
Zach Ertz (2-31-0/4) was back and was mostly a non-factor. Dallas Goedert (5-66-0/7) has seized the day for the Eagles, but what that really FF-means for either TE with Hurts at QB is TBD.
-- I said it in the Monday Midday report on the Sunday games: Aaron Jones (15-130-1, 3-18-0/3) would have been a full scale FF panic this week had he not busted off that late game, fortuitous 77-yard TD. Without that capping play…Jones would have had 53 yards rushing, 18 receiving, and no TDs again.
You have to play Jones every week, but his numbers are weakening the last few weeks. Without that 77-yarder, Jones would have rushed for less than 75 yards in seven if his last 8 games. Jones, without that TD, would have 4 TDs his last 8 games as well. Not bad numbers, just not ‘top RB1’ type numbers.
-- Allen Lazard (3-50-0/4) has 2-4-3 for catch counts since his return from core surgery. Takeaway the game where Davante Adams was out (Week 3) and in 5 games Lazard has played with Adams/Rodgers, his targets in games has been: 4-5-4-6-4 (4.6 per game).
Not FF-exciting.
Likely never will be until Adams doesn’t exist…and Lazard will probably be gone before Adams in this organization.
-- Who the Eagles QB is going forward not only affects the various Eagles’ weapons, but also the DST projections on the units facing them.
Facing Wentz might be the best thing to attack in all of the NFL now, given his spiral + terrible O-Line.
Facing Hurts makes a pause in the opposing DST enthusiasm. Hurts bring different elements to the table, etc.
You’re starting the Saints-DST Week 14 regardless, but you really want Wentz.
I like Arizona ahead because of Week 15 vs. Philly but not near as much if it Hurts. I go from ‘excited play’ on the Cardinals-DST to ‘pause’ if Hurts is in.
Week 16 vs. Dallas…it would be something if facing spiraling Wentz, but it’s a no go if facing Hurts.
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = Davante
46 = MVS
42 = Lazard
40 = A Jones
21 = Jamaal W
52 = Goedert
27 = Ertz
44 = Reagor
44 = Ward
35 = Jeffrey
25 = Fulgham
35 = Sanders
16 = Scott
11 = JoHo
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Raiders 28, Jets 24
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Raiders were pulling away from the Jets…a mid-3rd-quarter TD put Las Vegas up 24-13, and all looked right with the world.
On my Sunday morning Video Q&A pregame show, I talked about why I didn’t take LV for my ‘Survivor Pool’ pick (still alive through Week 13, thanks to the Vikings…never had a doubt)…that something just didn’t feel right about this game. However, by mid-3rd-quarter it looked like those fears might be unfounded.
Then the Jets scored a TD with 10+ minutes left. Then they scored another TD with 5+ minutes left and suddenly NYJ led the game 28-24.
The Raiders got the ball back, drove down the field, and fell short. It felt like the Jets had finally won a game! But when the Raiders gave the ball back to the Jets…NY proceeded to lose the way they lost to the Patriots late a few weeks ago – blowing a lead with a bad offense incapable of getting a 1st-down when needed. All the Jets needed to do was get one 1st-down and seal the deal…and they went three & out in the span of 0:55 seconds.
The Raiders had to go 61 yards in 0:35 seconds with no timeouts to win. Impossible…except for ‘this is the Jets’. On 3rd & 10 with seconds remaining, Henry Ruggs put a basic move on his cornerback, who bit and Ruggs went deep for a bomb/untouched 46-yard score to win because the Jets were not in a prevent defense.
Las Vegas was the better team, but not by much and they allowed the Jets to hang around. Actually, the Jets almost won the moment Frank Gore was hurt early – because it forced the Jets to use some talented RBs they’ve ignored, and those two backs combined for 178 yards rushing on 30 carries without Gore. They almost got the Jets to a win, but the Jets can’t not be the Jets.
The Raiders (7-5) saved their season with the lucky win…or it would’ve been three losses in a row and some chaos in the desert. Instead, Vegas has opportunity (or death) all in front of them…facing (8-4) Indy Week 14…the winner getting a huge boost for the wild card. Then Week 16 hosting Miami could be another huge wild card moment for the winner.
NYJ has a tough schedule the rest of the way. Week 16 hosting Cleveland might be an opportunity. Week 17 at New England, if the Pats are out of the playoffs and playing for nothing – which, if you’re Belichick…you want the Jets to beat you if it means they’d then miss out on Trevor Lawrence, right? Wouldn’t you think Belichick wants him out of the division? If there is a future’s bet on Week 17, NYJ at NE…take the points and the Jets right now.
Late Breaking News Monday: The Jets fired Gregg Williams. A couple thoughts…
1) He is a cancer to management wherever he goes, so you knew this was coming eventually…from the first day he was signed.
Do NFL teams ever learn? I submit to you, for the ten millionth time…they do not.
2) He deserved the firing after not switching coverage up on Darren Waller, while getting brutalized by him all Week 13. Also, not being in a prevent type coverage late to avoid the Ruggs event.
3) He was the driving force behind this aggressive defense…built for him, by him. They will rollover next week…I’m all-the-way-the-hell-in on Seattle over the Jets Week 14. My Survivor Pick for Week 14, almost a lock that it will be Seattle. We’ll see if COVID changes anything midweek…
This Jets defense is going from bad-to-worse off this news. Offensive players will shine against them for sure. SEA-LAR-CLE the next three games.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Frank Gore (1-2-0) got concussed on his first hit of the game. Most likely, he will miss Week 14. No need to thrust him back into the action…but we’ll see, ‘this is the Jets’.
Rookie dud LaMichal Perine is on I.R. with the earliest he can return being Week 15.
Week 14 will likely feature the two ‘stars’ of Week 13 for the Jets…the unwanted-by-their-own-team’s-coaches ‘stars’ – Ty Johnson (22-104-1, 2-13-0/2) and Josh Adams (8-74-0).
It was Johnson given the push upon the Gore injury. It was Adams who started popping big runs when he got his shot, but immediately upon seeing that success the Jets had to get Adams out of there so he wouldn’t mess their failure plan up. *For the record, if you’re new to FFM, I believe Josh Adams should be a starting RB in the NFL today. I like Ty Johnson’s talent OK, and he should have been playing ahead of Perine all along – but Adams is the real runner talent here.
Just so you know I’m not crazy. Adams came in and had three 10+ yard rushes in his 8 carries. His final two carries both for 10+ yards…notice I said ‘final’ carries. After back-to-back 10+ yard totes in the 3rd-quarter, he never carried the ball again if my notes are correct. This is the Jets.
If you had to guess what the Jets will do Week 14, you would guess they do two things…
1) Whatever makes the least sense/is the least helpful towards winning.
2) Do exactly what they did Week 13 when the ‘crisis’ hit.
The answer to both #1 and #2…is heavy Ty Johnson with Josh Adams sprinkled in. Johnson saw 39 snaps/24 touches, Adams 19 snaps/8 touches this game.
Johnson for a spot start Week 14…he’s got some upside. It’s a spot against Seattle, a decent run defense against a bad Jets run game. If Gore can go Week 14…Gore will lead, and Johnson will see 4-5 touches, at best.
Ty J is ‘hope’ but not ‘wow’ for Week 14. Perine comes back Week 15, and if healthy, he immediately goes back to the starter…and Gore would be the backup/relief back when he’s healthy. Whichever backs are there for Week 15…facing the Rams, they’re all dead on that matchup.
-- Devontae Booker (16-50-0, 1-1-0/2) got his big chance to start, and it was underwhelming. Good play by a vastly improved Jets run defense and Booker looked fine but bottled up most of the game.
I think there’s a chance Josh Jacobs misses Week 15 v. IND, so Booker would draw another start – but if the LV run game was bottled up by the Jets…it’s definitely getting halted by the Colts. But Booker would see 15+ carries again for what that is FF-worth.
I think Jacobs is less than 50-50 to face the Colts, as of this writing, as I proposed was an issue last Tuesday on the Video Q&A. When LV gave a tryout to Spencer Ware last week…you knew something had management spooked on Jacobs’ recovery time.
-- Darren Waller (13-200-2/17) did nothing overly special in this game…it’s just the Jets single covered him with a slow linebacker one-on-one and Carr kept throwing it because Waller was wide open and the Jets didn’t really adjust to it until later in the game…and that didn’t really even matter.
Week 14 for LV…the Colts are maybe the best defense covering the tight end in the NFL, so it will be an interesting matchup. Not that you sit Waller or anything, but many of you with Waller going in the first playoff game of 2020…you wish Waller were not facing a shutdown-the-TE defense.
-- Nelson Agholor (4-38-0/11) is starting to stumble to the finish line. The Raiders #1 WR (which doesn’t mean squat in this offense) did not look great here in what should’ve been a very easy matchup. He’s banged up/was questionable for this game earlier in the week…so, it could be a physical slowdown.
His numbers have been tailing off the past few weeks…even with a bump in targets the last few weeks. Either he needs time to heal or Bryan Edwards (0-0-0/1) is going to start seeing a few more snaps/touches to try and reclaim that starting role. Regardless…it’s hard to FF-trust anything outside of Jacobs-Waller on the Raiders.
-- It’s fair to say Henry Ruggs (3-84-1/4) is trending upwards…his last two games 3.0 rec., 70.0 yards, 0.50 TDs per game…but the 46-yard TD in one-on-one coverage here when they Jets should’ve been in prevent gives him all the statistical boost to be a head fake.
Fantasy analysts are going to point to his last 2-4 game averages as proof of an uptrend, but this somewhat fortuitous game winning TD is driving attention away from what is a WR4 story. If you can’t trust Agholor here, you can’t trust the lesser targeted, less-important-to-Carr WR in Ruggs for FF purposes.
-- Denzel Mims (2-40-0/3) had a couple of nice 15+ yard catches, but just two this week…and no real signs of an ‘it’ moment. He’s playing very low-key good football. I can see the slow progression to real NFL WR. I just haven’t seen the moment where I go ‘wow’, yet.
Not sure I’ll get it with him + Sam Darnold (14-23 for 186 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT).
Darnold’s ‘guy’ is Jamison Crowder (5-47-2/7), who got back to his WR1 with Darnold ways here in this game, after a week off of that with last week’s dud.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Perriman
50 = Mims
42 = Crowder
05 = Berrios
39 = Ty Johnson
19 = Adams
02 = Gore
33 = Booker
32 = Richard
13 = Riddick
- Kardelen Duyan
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Saints 31, Broncos 3
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
We all remember this as the waste of time game where all the Denver QBs were out and UDFA/practice squad WR Kendall Hinton was elevated to emergency QB for the game…and he was destroyed (as many expected) as the Saints laughed their way to a 31-3 win.
What gets lost in this is… This game was just 7-0 Saints with 2+ minutes before the half…and Denver had the ball. The Saints weren’t doing much special either in this game – it was ‘a game’. Then, working in the wildcat with 2+ minutes before half, Phillip Lindsay fumbled to set up an easy Saints TD. A Hinton INT set up a field goal at the halftime buzzer and suddenly it was 17-0 Saints. It wasn’t as bad as the score indicated for the Broncos.
It was 17-3 Saints with a few minutes left in the 3rd-quarter…but the Broncos couldn’t muster anything on offense and the Saints just let Denver flop repeatedly and they took advantage enough times to get a big spread win. The Saints were not great here either, but the Broncos were so bad I’m sure the Saints weren’t running 100% effort/playbook. They knew it was in the bag after the first series or two.
The Saints are now (9-2) and in control of the #1 seed in the NFC but they have at least one more loss if not two left on the schedule…worst case they will go (12-4) – and Green Bay holds a tiebreaker (win) over them this season if it comes down to it. 13 wins should get the Saints the #1 seed. 12 wins puts it up in the air for sure, of which they’d be an underdog for it. ‘At’ Green Bay or ‘At’ New Orleans late in the playoffs…big difference for all teams involved.
Denver had nothing to lose, no one expected them to win given the circumstances…but they decided to coach/plan the worst game of football in 2020 (more on that in a moment) just to make sure -- and they lost big and fell to (4-7) on their way to 5 wins, maybe.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I don’t want to waste time on the following, but I have to for my own catharsis…
So, when I found out Kendall Hinton (1-9 for 13 yards, 0 TD/2 INT, 2-7-0) was going to play QB for Denver, in this emergency…I was kind of excited.
I had scouted Hinton pre-2020 NFL Draft as a WR, but I watched some of his QB work at Wake Forest as well. It wasn’t bad. He was a shaky passer, who had up and down moments…but one who was a very good, tough, purposeful runner of the ball at QB. I graded him pretty highly as a WR prospect – very good feet, good hands, gets open and makes plays with the gift of being a very tough, elusive runner with the ball after the catch. Hinton has NFL skills.
Knowing this, I figured Denver would install him at QB and start him out with designed running plays and screen/short throws to get him into the action/get hit and get past the nerves…I figured they would play to his strengths and try to hide the weaknesses of his situation.
Instead of that, Hinton would come into the game and drop back in the pocket and try to make downfield throws – those were play calls by the O-C, and no RBs were really available to toss the ball to for a check down on these pocket passes. Pass after pass was him 5+ step dropping and heaving prayers to nowhere. It wasn’t until the 3rd-quarter that they called the first screen pass…and whaddya know? It was completed for 13 yards. No more designed screens from there. Hinton ran out of the pocket once for a nice 5+ yard gain; outrunning a D-Lineman who had an angle (it appeared). No designed runs for Hinton that I saw.
If I were the GM or owner of the Broncos, or the head coach…I would have fired the O-C (Pat Shurmur) Sunday night after the game. You cannot be that stupid…and make probably 500K+ a year as a coordinator. How do you not know what your players are good or bad at? How do you not know the situation and cater to it? Instead they just ran their regular pass game with him.
But that’s the NFL for you. An absolute absence of business sense or logic or improvisation ability. The play book is the bible, and everyone needs to adjust to it. Morons. This game demanded a unique, radical offensive plan…and the Broncos did nothing of the sort.
So, Hinton looks like a fool and the team loses by 28…and Hinton’s probably ruined by reputation (from this) and his own memories of this opportunity. Shurmur takes no blame and continues to draw paychecks. What a shame. What gross negligence.
-- Is Alvin Kamara (11-54-0, 1-0-0/2) in big FF-trouble working with Taysom Hill?
It sure looks like it after two games, but note this game was so ‘not indicative’ of anything due to the DEN QB situation…we have to be careful seeing this as the 2nd card dealt in the Blackjack game for AK working with Taysom.
Kamara v. Latavius in two games with Taysom:
24 carries, 99 yards, 1 rec. (3 targets), -2 rec. yards, 1 total TD = Kamara
31 carries, 173 yards, 3 rec. (3 targets), 38 rec. yards, 2 total TDs = Murray
Latavius Murray (19-124-2, 1-12-0/1) works better in this run game as the keep/fake up the middle RB for Taysom to read the situation and decide what to do on the read option. Kamara is not as golden an option as a between the tackles runner.
Add to that – running QBs don’t throw to RBs that much, and thus you got a big problem for Kamara putting up his usual big numbers.
The Falcons have a tough run defense. If the Saints go 50-50 or heavier Latavius again, I think we have to judge it as Latavius > Kamara IF Taysom is at QB.
Here’s a charted/noticed ‘thing’ that can’t make AK owners feel well… (this first play of the first 8 series)
Series #1 in this game, 1st play = Latavius handoff
Series #2, 1st play = Latavius handoff
Series #3, 1st play = Latavius target/catch
Series #4, 1st play = Latavius (in, but ball went elsewhere)
Series #5, 1st play = Kamara (in, but ball went elsewhere)
Series #6, 1st play = Latavius (in, but ball went elsewhere)
Series #7, 1st play = Kamara (in, but ball went elsewhere)
Series #8, 1st play = Latavius handoff
-- Taysom Hill (9-16 for 78 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 11-44-2) struggled a bit here. He said (post game) he changed strategy to be more protective, knowing that Denver had the QB issues. I don’t know. I would have liked to have seen how this would have played out normally. Denver has a good defense and Taysom finally put a game on tape for defenses to study the prior week.
Again, for the 1st-half…when it was a game…Hill struggled.
Was it the game flow or did Hill come back to earth a bit/get figured a bit? We really can’t know because this game was so unusual.
As long as Taysom is running…he’s good for fantasy, but his passing here was shaky. Still, it’s just two games on this journey for him as well. He’ll get more comfortable as he goes.
-- That’s (above) why you can’t freak out about the Michael Thomas (4-50-0/6) stat line – there was only 9 passes completed by the Saints…almost half to Thomas. In a normal game, he’ll be fine.
Jared Cook (0-0-0/2) on the other hand…he’s dead without Drew Brees.
-- Since their Bye week (6), from Week 7 on to today – the Saints-DST is the #2 scoring DST in fantasy PPG in that span. Facing the non-planned Kendall Hinton really helped give them another push.
The Saints have allowed 3-13-9-3 points to opponents (7.0 NFL points per game) the past four games. This defense is on fire out of nowhere. With ATL and PHI the next two weeks…the party continues, most likely. Week 15 vs. KC, not so much.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
35 = Gordon
14 = Lindsay
13 = Freeman
39 = Trautman
39 = J Hill
19 = J Cook
31 = Kamara
30 = L Murray
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Packers 41, Bears 25
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Packers were super-efficient on offense and moved the ball at will, and the Bears were terrible on both sides of the ball. That’s the way most of their games have gone in 2020, and this was no different. End of game analysis. I mean, the score was 41-10 heading into the 4th-quarter. What else is there to say?
Green Bay is now (8-3)…with a schedule that can allow them to finish (13-3), but (12-4) is probably the right call. Could be (11-5). Either way, they win the NFC North…and are trying to catch the Saints (whom they’ve already beaten) to get to the #1 seed…which ‘at’ Green Bay or ‘at’ New Orleans is a HUGE difference for all playoff teams involved ahead.
The Bears fall to (5-6) but are still in the playoff hunt…and have a schedule that could sneak them in as a wild card at (8-8). We see them going (8-8) and losing out to MIN or SF for the last playoff spot in the end. In or out of the playoffs probably determines Matt Nagy’s employment status for 2021.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Mitch Trubisky (26-46 for 246 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs) didn’t play as terribly as you might think. He definitely had some throws into coverage (for picks) that were ugly. But when Tom Brady does that all day on Sunday, it’s ‘Bruce Arians is a bad fit for Tom’ festival of excuses. When Mitch takes a couple (weak) shots, and they don’t work – it’s because he sucks, and everyone knew this all along.
I thought Mitch played a little better than normal here (for 2020). He had a bit more confidence and aggressiveness with his throws. He was passive and terrible early in the season, but better here.
First series, Bears drive right down the field…Mitch completes a pass for a TD to Cole Kmet, who turns to the endzone to get in and has the ball knocked out and ruled incomplete. Next play, high point pass to Allen Robinson who catches it in the end zone for a TD, lands in the end zone with a defender fighting him on it, but then crashes to the ground and the ball comes out…incomplete. How is this Trubisky’s fault?
Soon after, Bears driving again, 3rd & 7…Mitch completes a pass for a 1st-down conversion. Wait, penalty…no play, now 3rd & 17. He then gets sacked, fumbles, scooped and score…and it was about over then.
Mitch had some good stuff taken away from him that wasn’t his fault.
Mitch then threw some garbage time to have a decent FF game. Trubisky wasn’t horrible, and now faces a bad Lions defense Week 13…a team he consistently rips apart. Could be a good FF week for him and Allen Robinson (8-74-2/13).
-- David Montgomery (11-103-0, 5-40-1/6) got sprung through a wide-open hole on the 2nd offensive play of the game for Chicago…and got a 57-yard run booked. He didn’t do much else the rest of the game. His TD catch was total garbage time at the very end.
Dynasty owners…this is your chance to move him – a 100+ yard game, and a receiving TD! Why…he’s the greatest!!
Redraft owners…I guess you ride this because he’s one of like 4-5 RBs that gets all the touches no matter how hard he sucks.
-- Jamaal Williams (17-73-1, 0-0-0/0) might be a better play than David Montgomery, honestly.
Since Week 4, David Montgomery is the #12 RB in PPR PPG (5 or more games played). Jamaal is close behind at #16.
Since Week 7, Jamaal is the #11 PPR RB in fantasy…Montgomery #14.
Aaron Jones #15.
-- Allen Lazard (4-23-1/6) is still doing his ‘bit player’ in the shadow of Davante thing since returning from his core surgery. He’s a Davante Adams handcuff, is all, right now.
-- Bears or Packers-DST ahead?
The Bears defense is not bad, but overrated. Facing Detroit in the Chicago cold is pretty decent Week 13. Weeks 14-15 with HOU-MIN, not as excited.
The Packers have a better defense than analysts think, but it’s erratic. Week 13 v. PHI is a great spot, in the cold facing Wentz with the yips and no O-Line. Weeks 14-15 with DET-CAR are ‘meh’.
For the season, in FF scoring per game:
The Packers-DST is #18.
The Bears-DST #19.
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Link to Amazon main page: https://www.amazon.com/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=tfawesbite11-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=44051c116edf4a75e87f1aae12955357&camp=1789&creative=9325
Snaps Counts of Interest:
38 = A Jones
33 = Jamaal
63 = Davante
56 = MVS (and not a target)
38 = St Brown
33 = Lazard
58 = Montgomery
09 = CPatt
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Dolphins 20, Jets 3
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Going into this game, right before kickoff, if I told you (visiting you from the future) that the Dolphins would look sloppy, sluggish on offense but the Jets would look more sloppy, more ineffective with a returning Sam Darnold…and that the Dolphins won every statistical category that mattered (time of possession, 3rd-down conversions, 1st-downs, yards, etc.) – you would not be shocked if I then told you the final score was Dolphins 20 and the Jets 3.
Well, that’s exactly what happened. No major breaking news or weird events here.
I thought this was the one game remaining where the Jets might pull an upset for their lone win of 2020, but they did not. Not even close. Actually, kinda close-ish. It was only 13-3 Miami with 20+ minutes left in the game, but anytime the Jets would start making noise – but the Miami defense would get tough and Sam Darnold would be Sam Darnold. Miami books the easy win.
Miami is now (7-4) and has everyone’s attention as a playoff team, and possible AFC East title possibility. I don’t know that they’re going to get to the playoffs. Weeks 15-16 with NE and LV will be their season, and if they run Tua out there against them they will lose both those key games and get washed from the wild card most likely. We see Miami going (9-7) with Week 16 at LV likely causing the winner to get into a wild card spot, and the loser to be out of the wild card due to tiebreakers, etc.
The Jets are looking very strong to go (0-16) now. Their last real shot at a win will be Week 16 hosting Cleveland. Whether they win a game or not…they appear to have the tiebreaker over a 1-win Jacksonville team (strength of schedule) to get Trevor Lawrence/the #1 pick. *UPDATE* The Jags actually have the SOS edge over NYJ if they end up in a tie. I'm sure Trevor is praying the Jets win a game so he can get to Jacksonville...
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The biggest thing I saw in this game, and I went back to watch in more detail on All-22 just to watch this player isolated in the game (against a good/great cover defense) – Denzel Mims (4-67-0/8) is starting to percolate…he’s climbing the ladder a rung at a time to being the Jets’ kinda/sorta #1 WR already.
…and that’s quite a statement with Crowder-Perriman there as well.
If I were to put Mims’ NFL progress in baseball terms – he’s rounded first base and heading to second. We’re still early, and he has head winds with the QB play and team…but something is happening here.
Mims, to me, looks like the early stages of the Justin Jefferson pre-breakout. The first few weeks of the season, Jefferson was rotating in and out, getting a few targets, and the snap/touch levels inched up a bit – and then BOOM…he exploded and hasn’t looked back. Early on Jefferson was moving well, kinda low key, looked a touch unsure (as rookies do)…I wondered if he really had the mental ‘it’, the physical toughness to be a big time WR…or just be a ‘good one’.
Mims is showing similar movement skills as Jefferson pre-breakout – fast feet off the snap, gets open easily, working low key/no splash plays that really standout. But Mims, unlike Jefferson, was thrown right into heavy playing time and is getting targets his way immediately. Jefferson was a nobody at first for Minnesota the first few weeks…and then BOOM. Mims has been getting really good targets, desperate throws…like he’s considered a top option/a trusted option/a hopeful option. The numbers keep creeping up.
Mims averaged 42.0 yards (5.0 targets) per game his first two games…and 67.3 yards (and 7.7 targets) per game his next/last 3 games – that’s a 1,000+ yard seasonal pace over 16 games. He’s doing this despite not being ‘the guy’…and working with Joe Flacco and Sam Darnold.
And therein lies the rub. Mims is starting to show some signs, but he is working with Sam Darnold. That’s not good for FF purposes.
The exciting part, potentially, is – he may be working with Darnold for four more games and then never again in his Jets career. He may be working with Trevor Lawrence in 2021+, and that’s more promising.
I love the little progression I’m seeing with Mims. I like the confidence starting to grow, and the confidence of the QBs in throwing to him…and Mims made some plays in the face of Xavien Howard in this game (a top cover CB). Mims, on paper, has some Julio Jones-like physical metrics. I am a Mims fan, but I haven’t see the ‘it’ moment yet…but I feel like he’s wandering in that direction towards a ‘pop’ that he ‘gets it’ and quasi-breaks out (as much as you can with Darnold).
There’s a lot of smoke here…I am hoping an FF-fire might breakout soon.
-- Matt Breida (8-36-0, 2-17-0/2) got the start in this game. It wasn’t until the 3rd-series that DeAndre Washington (13-49-0, 2-11-0/5) entered…and he looked more aggressive, effective…and Brian Flores just went with it.
Matt Breida is so done in Miami right now. He might secretly be hurt in some way and trying to play through it, he’s looked so ‘nothing’ this season -- but his career seems to be slipping away right now.
Washington is hurt and probably won’t play this week. Salvon Ahmed is back practicing and Myles Gaskin is due to be activated…once Ahmed-Gaskin-Washington are active, I wonder if Breida (and/or Laird) will get dumped to make space for the playoff run ahead to free up a roster spot.
-- Brian Flores is inexplicable with his choice of skill position players. Whatever RB(s) he does use Week 13…it will be the most talentless backfield in the NFL.
Miami also has the most talentless WR group in the NFL, spots 1-3.
And then, if they go back to Tua (and it looks like they can’t wait to) – they will have one of the 2-3 worst QBs in the NFL running the show…along with the worst RB and WR group.
How can this team be taken seriously for the playoffs? The defense is going to have to carry them…and when they face KC Week 14, we’ll see how effective (not) that plan will be.
-- Tua might be better than Sam Darnold (16-27 for 197 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs), eventually…not today he isn’t. Which is a sad commentary on Darnold, but even sadder for the ENTIRE football community who not only supported Darnold as good…they had him as ‘great’, a franchise/elite QB.
I wrote about the Sam Darnold issues back when he was just breaking out as a supposed star at USC. Similarly, I never saw what THEY saw about Jameis Winston even in his Heisman year. I’m not perfect in scouting QBs (but not far off of it), but if you’ve been with me over the years – you know I know QB scouting better than anyone on the planet. My track record is on file for years at College Football Metrics, and speaks for itself.
So, when I say…when my senses feel all along like there’s a problem with Tua…I’m pretty sure there is. I’ve haven’t understood the Tua appeal for years…like with Darnold or Winston. Tua is a bit better than them, but nowhere near what THEY say.
The Dolphins are WAY better off with Ryan Fitzpatrick, warts and all. But I think I know Brian Flores – you are not going to tell him he is wrong with his move to Tua. He’s going to force this to work and then lie about it/cover it up when it isn’t…telling everyone he isn’t failing/falling short because you don’t know things and he does. You’ll see.
Miami’s playoff chances lie with Tua getting hurt and them HAVING to go with Fitzpatrick.
-- Quinnen Williams (7 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 TFLs, 2 PDs) is starting to heat up.
3.0 sacks, 8 QB hits in his last 4 games with 4.3 tackles per game.
2.0 sacks, 2 QB hits, in his first 6 games this season.
-- Since Week 4, when they got their CB duo back together, the Miami-DST has been the #2 DST in FF scoring per game…second only to the Steelers.
How much longer do we have with this DST?
Well, Week 13 v. CIN is sweet…but then you cannot think about them for Week 14 vs. KC.
Week 15 v. NE is good. Week 16 at LV not great, but possible/useful.
-- Jason Sanders (2/2 FG, 2/2 XP) leads the league in 50+ yard FGs made…8-for-8 so far this season, which is stunning. Last season, the 50+ yard FG made leader had 8 of them made (Joey Slye). Sanders is about to take that number down.
Here’s the thing…Sanders is 6-of-6 from 50+ in just the last 4 games.
Because Miami cannot move the ball well/get into the end zone with their terrible offense…they’ll take a lot of field goals, and then try to hold opponents with their defense.
Sanders kicks at home/warm weather the next 3 games…and then in a dome Week 16. All looks great…except, I’d worry about his upside vs. KC in Week 14. Field goals aren’t going to cut it – but it may be all that Miami can muster for offense.
Snap Counts of Interest:
32 = Gore
10 = Ty Johnson
01 = Adams
54 = Perriman
52 = Mims
44 = Crowder
34 = D Washington
23 = Breida
10 = Laird
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Chiefs 27, Bucs 24
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I’m not even sure what I witnessed here…
This game starts out with a Mahomes-to-Tyreek festival that took many FFM teams from likely-to-lose to huge/massive/historic/never-gonna-forget wins – and locked up FF playoff berths for some (no sweating Week 13), playoff byes for some…and some who had to win out…they got catapulted forward to needing to win one more game to pull off the improbable.
It was…I would say awesome, but it was more (to me) stunning. I couldn’t believe what I was witnessing. Tampa Bay single covering Tyreek and then him going totally off on them. When it happened once (for a long TD), I was like ‘YES!’. When it happened again in the following series…I was like ‘THIS IS FF SALVATION!’. When it happened again the next drive, I was like – just how stupid and/or arrogant is Bruce Arians? Does he have some mental issues that need diagnosing? I mean, I appreciated all the FF-gold, but is Bruce OK? Why is he allowing this single coverage on Tyreek over and over? I almost felt sad for Tampa Bay fans…and those FF teams opposing Tyreek this week.
And then it all just stopped.
I don’t think it was because they did that much better covering Tyreek. I think in part it was KC getting lazy when things get too easy. How can KC start out that hot…but only finish with 27 points and almost lose the game?
There were two parts to me being stunned by the 1st-half… (1) The constant Tyreek FF-jackpot payouts. (2) Watching Tom Brady suck, again.
As good as Mahomes-Tyreek was, Brady was the opposite...bad…horrific, actually. Every throw he was making the first 2+ quarters seemed offline, too far, too ‘floating’, and/or dangerously heaved into a crowd. He was terrible…and, yet, they had a chance to win late if the defense could’ve held the Chiefs on the final drive to get the ball back.
I don’t know how this game wasn’t 50+ points to very little points, a huge KC win. I don’t know how this game wound up 27-24, the Bucs backdoor cover +3.5…with a chance to win late. It’s all very odd. I don’t know how it happened to get so close, because Brady never got better and Mahomes was slicing and dicing at will. I just think KC gets lazy and sloppy and flips a switch when it wants, and they win. They don’t destroy the opponent's ‘dead’, they get up fast and coast…or get behind and just race back in the 4th-quarter and win. Their blasé attitude will get them ‘got’ in the playoffs if they are not careful – it almost did all playoff long last season.
Regardless, the Chiefs are now (10-1) and likely headed to (15-1), hoping the Steelers fall two more times so they can get that #1 seed…or if the Steelers lose to Buffalo Week 14 – then the Chiefs would have a tiebreaker over Pittsburgh.
The Buccaneers fall to (7-5). Proclaimed a Super Bowl team after their Week 6 blowout of Green Bay…it’s been falling downhill ever since. They’ve lost three of their last 4 games – and have not looked good doing so. Their defense has fallen apart. The head coach has lost the team to Tom Brady, who is only interested in things that make him look good. It’s imploding, structurally.
The schedule should get Tampa Bay to 10 wins, possibly 11…and a wild card. But if you want to see panic, watch what happens if Minnesota goes out and rocks Tampa in Week 14…and I think that might happen. Tampa Bay will be a wild card for sure, just unknown whether it will be a #5 or #6 seed. If they can get to a #5 seed, their opening game will be with the NFC East division winner…a game that TB will probably be favored in.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I’m not going to waste any more time talking about how great Mahomes, Tyreek, and Kelce are on the field. There’s no breaking news there.
I am going to note…
Tyreek Hill (13-269-3/15) is #1 among WRs in total PPR points this season…32 ahead of Davante Adams. On a PPG basis, Tyreek is #2 to Davante by 1.7 PPG…but is ahead of Adams in non-PPR PPG so far this season.
Travis Kelce (8-82-0/8) is #1 among TEs in total PPR points this season…66 points ahead of Darren Waller. Kelce is also way ahead of the pack in PPG PPR and on.
Patrick Mahomes (37-49 for 462 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) is #2 (to Kyler) in total points among QBs in 4pts per pass TD, but #1 in 6pts per pass TD…ditto in PPG looks. In 1-2 weeks, Mahomes should be alone at #1 for QB scoring per game in all formats.
Never again will I accept the fantasy argument, the ridicule I get from polite FF-society when I say that the top QBs, WRs, TEs are just as valuable, or are even more valuable than the stud RBs. I will not hear of this running back ‘over all things’ stuff again. I’ve been mocked for pushing the top projected QBs and WRs/TEs higher than most for years. I pushed RB valuation more this preseason/season prep – and it was the way wrong move, and we’ve all had to adjust and rebuild our team on the fly – which is something we’re all capable of, as many have done successfully this season. Still, the strategy was horrifically wrong. I led myself and others to RB slaughter unnecessarily the first couple weeks of the season.
I acknowledge RBs have some fluff/inflated value because THEY value them so much, so there is THAT value -- but I’m not building my team via RBs early in redrafts anymore. I’m going after the nuclear bomb players harder than ever before – Mahomes-Hill-Kelce chief among them. We’ve built Dynasty many a teams that way, but this year in redraft (and some in Dynasty) we chased RBs like the blind-leading-the-blind. Never again.
That’s not say RBs are worth nothing, just that the elite ones are worth equal or less than Patrick Mahomes or Davante-Tyreek, and arguably Travis Kelce (in PPR)…just to name a few examples.
-- Prime example of this RB thing… What a waste of energy the chase after Clyde Edwards-Helaire (11-37-0) has been…not worth the redraft 1st-round pick, probably not worth the top Dynasty Rookie Draft pick when we look back at it in a few years – and, at a minimum, you could have traded out of the 1st-round high picks for real stuff and then chased CEH this 2021 offseason where the bloom is way the hell off the rose.
The value of Dynasty Rookie Draft picks is usually trading the top picks for real stuff and load up/make a killing between picks #10-30+. That was our strategy this preseason, and except for sometimes trading for shitty existing RBs over rookie RBs…it was the smart move. Trading for Diontae+ or Kyler + with high 1st-round picks…a winner. Those that had multiple picks in the 2nd-round and earlier 3rd-round picks walked out with Burrow or Herbert plus Bryan Edwards plus Chase Claypool. The Dynasty Rookie Draft sweet spot was picks #15-30.
Every Dynasty Rookie Draft is different depending upon the class and the existing NFL rosters. It takes a lot of time to work through it – and I do just that with College Football Metrics. New season coming up in January.
2020 = Sell top 1st-round picks, get more 2nds and 3rds…because the WR scouting was all wrong by the mainstream. Was I right?
2019 = Sell everything to get to Kyler Murray. Was I right?
Both of those strategies – no one else agreed. It was my own study and strategy. Your support of CFM (and FFM) keeps those studies going. COVID shutdowns/fears of no season, etc., kicked CFM in the groin in March-April-May. I need your support more than ever to keep fighting. To keep being able to study it in greater detail than anyone on the planet – and to boil it down for you to use as you see fit.
I’m not perfect on all the calls and valuations…I’m just WAY more right than anyone else in the industry. Not trying to be a bragging jerk, but it takes a lot of time and resources to be king of the mountain. Your support…helps the cause in ways I can never fully express my gratitude on.
-- Tom Brady (27-47 for 345 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs) and Bruce Arians is the big topic of the week…again. I don’t want to get into it too much here because it’s useless for current fantasy football season guidance, but it is fascinating, and we’ll dissect it in the postseason.
My take, in a nutshell…
Bruce Arians coaches because he loves to be needed by the players, especially those that have questionable/rough backgrounds. He likes being a ‘dad’ in charge of people. I think he’d coach for free because bossing around people is the air he breathes. Forced worship by the players is his lifeblood. No one would care about him if he didn’t have the ‘big whistle’ around his neck.
Tom Brady doesn’t need Bruce Arians, and that kills Arians (mentally/anguish). Also, Tom Brady has become a selfish player…and he took advantage of the Bucs – and I commend him for it. He had leverage and star power…he used it. Good capitalism, but bad for winning games/building a franchise. Brady is trying to build his own legacy and showcase himself…he’s not trying to build a winning franchise, per se. He wants to win, but mostly he wants to look good.
Brady doesn’t look good (on the field) – so, the media is picking sides because they live to assign blame…and they blame Arians for all this. It can’t be Brady, so ipso-facto it’s Arians’ fault. Bruce is not used to the media turning on him. He won’t go down meekly.
Brady looks as bad/worse than Jameis Winston in this offense, to me. Let that resonate. Winston was way more unable to read defenses and was constantly throwing into trouble, but also Winston had more arm/guts (or lack of thought) to also make things happen (in garbage time).
All I see Brady doing is throwing wild passes off the mark and lobbing bombs hoping for an answer. He keeps throwing a lot (the #1 pass attempt QB in the league) so some passes are landing, he’s not incompetent – he’s just not elite anymore.
Brady isn’t bad…he’s just not great anymore. But everyone wants him to be, so someone (not him) has to be blamed for his demise. Sorry, Bruce…you’re an easy target.
This erratic Tampa Bay play and Brady throwing will continue.
-- I can’t tell you what receiver Brady has a connection with.
Gronk (6-106-0/7) had a big game here, but he’s been more ghost than not this season.
Antonio Brown (2-11-0/3) looked like his BFF Week 11, then was ignored Week 12.
Brady-Evans look terrible together, but somehow Evans always comes up with a TD to save himself for FF.
Chris Godwin (8-97-0/9) has been the most stable WR, so you’d have to say he’s the #1 now…by default. But Godwin is on a pace for like a 1,100+ yards, 6 TD season based on his per game work – that’s not elite, it’s just pretty good/like 30-50 other WRs.
Brady has had moments with Scottie Miller, AB, Gronk, Jaydon Mickens…and then not the following week. I have no idea who will lead the way for the ROS among this receiver group.
-- The best player on the offense is Ronald Jones (9-66-0, 1-37-1/2), and I think Arians wants to go there heavy but the team gets down so fast in games they don’t have time to run…and I don’t think Brady wants to hand it off, because that takes stats from him – so Arians has to worry about pissing off Brady. It’s a catch-22.
We’ll see Week 14. Arians wants more RoJo. Brady wants more Brady. We’ll see who wins.
My guess is…Brady.
I’d buy Ronald Jones wherever I could because he is working like one of the best backs in the NFL, but it’s hidden by erratic touches in early blowouts in 2020. The schedule should allow for more balance the next few games to close out…and then into 2021, Jones has established himself as a workhorse.
-- You can quit the two ancient RBs from this game…
Le’Veon Bell (5-22-0, 2-10-0/2) looks incredibly mediocre every week for KC. There hasn’t been ONE moment to get excited about. Darrell Williams is better.
Worse than Bell is Leonard Fournette (3-10-0, 3-10-0/3)…who is getting slower and more ineffective by the week. He needs to be in a ground and pound offense, and I’m not even sure he’s good at that anymore. In two years, I don’t think we’ll see Bell or Fournette in the NFL. They made their money, now they can leave with a big bank account and good health.
-- The Bucs-DST is taking a lot of criticism…but is giving up 27 points to the Chiefs all that terrible? It looked worse on tape, but they held KC to just 10 points from the 2nd-quarter on. Getting beat by KC-LAR-NO is not the worst thing ever.
Facing MIN-ATL-DET after the bye…they may get ‘right’ against them. Not a must ride DST, but they are a good FF one in good/great matchups. They have shown dominance at times this season.
-- The Chiefs defense tends to play to the level of its opponents. They can really shut down teams, but they also give up a lot because they know their offense can overcome.
I am still all-in with them against DEN-MIA the next two weeks. Week 15 at NO…you can depart from them.
*Shopping Online with Amazon this Holiday Season? Who isn’t?
Did you know if you click through the Amazon link from the FFM homepage (our partners/shop with us area) it doesn’t change your online shopping experience or cost you any money but somehow the big brother technology credits FFM with helping with the sale and we gets some of Jeff Bezos’s scraps from his solid gold dinner table to help support the FFM efforts and fund our own future technology improvements? It’s one click away, nothing else needed or to register. Thank you for your consideration!
Link to Amazon main page: https://www.amazon.com/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=tfawesbite11-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=44051c116edf4a75e87f1aae12955357&camp=1789&creative=9325
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = Godwin
53 = Evans
43 = AB
10 = S Miller
33 = Fournette
21 = RoJo
47 = CEH
24 = Le’Veon
08 = Darrell Williams
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Titans 45, Colts 26
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Titans lost to the Colts just two weeks prior…but that was a game that Tennessee was winning, then a comedy of errors ensued (missed FGs, shanked punts) and let the Colts back in…to win. This game, the Titans just put the hammer down on the Colts. It was 35-14 Titans at the half. 38-14 at the end of three. A bunch of Colts garbage got it a bit closer, but this was a Titans crush event.
The Titans are just better than the Colts, period. Judging their two matchups in three weeks – the judge’s scorecard goes strong to Tennessee. Whatever you think about the Titans strength (or not), however you would grade them – they are better than the Colts top-to-bottom, from QB to coaching, to overall team. We’d all say the Colts have a better 1-53 roster of talent…so the fact that the Titans are just better than them on the field, clearly (and in record to date) – it’s on the coaching and the QB. Neither is getting any better anytime soon. The Andy Reid coaching tree is rotting away (Nagy, Pederson, Reich/Ballard).
Tennessee is going to win the AFC South, almost assuredly. They should finish with 11 wins and walk away with the division. Worst case 10 wins and get it via tiebreakers.
Indianapolis falls to (7-4) and their wild card playoff life probably comes down to Week 14 at Las Vegas – the winner of that game is a likely wild card, and the loser is sent scrambling to get in. We currently project Indy going (9-7) and up in the air for a playoff spot…but not looking great with a loss to Cleveland already, and if they lose to Vegas.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- A very odd shift is taking place at tight end in Tennessee…a shift away from the very talented Jonnu Smith (0-0-0/0)…the early season top 2-3 fantasy TE, for 4 weeks.
Here were the TE snap counts in this game from the TEs (and the subsequent stat lines for each)…
54 snaps = Jonnu (0-0-0/0)
45 = Geoff Swaim (3-30-0/3)
20 = Anthony Firkser (0-0-0/1)
Swaim is primarily known for his blocking skills, but since he was activated in Week 5 he’s played 6 games, got hurt in one of them and left early, but started four of the other 5 games…playing 55-65% of the snaps each game. He’s on the field a bunch. He’s seeing targets now. I noticed a few pass plays with Jonnu and Swaim running routes on the same play and Tannehill going to a less open Swaim over Jonnu.
The last few weeks I was hearing a drum beat of Anthony Firkser being their most trusted receiving TE, internally being thought/said.
At the same time, Jonnu’s targets/catches/production have fallen off a cliff (and Weeks 1-4 Jonnu was a top 2-3 FF TE). When did Jonnu’s targets start falling? Week 6. When did Swaim get back on the field? Week 5.
I can’t tell you what is going on with the Jonnu decline, or which Tennessee TE is best for fantasy right now (none, is the answer). All I know is…Jonnu is being iced out of the passing game, no longer is he that guy from Weeks 1-4. In redraft, he’s droppable. He has been for a few weeks now.
-- The best FF TE to own from this game, to have on your team right now? It has to be Trey Burton (3-42-1/6), inexplicably.
In recent weeks, all I see is Rivers trying to force the ball to Burton on 3rd-downs and in the red zone/end zone. Burton looks like a shell of himself from former days, but Rivers is going there every week…who am I to turn my nose up at it?
Since getting active, Burton has had no less than 3 targets each game but usually sees 4-5 throws and he has 3 receiving TDs and 2 rushing TDs, 5 TDs total in 8 games. Most TEs will not have 5 TDs all season, Burton has 5 already despite missing Weeks 1-3.
-- Jonathan Taylor (DNP) didn’t play this game due to COVID, which is a shame because the prior week he had his big game against Green Bay…I was thinking maybe the Colts would try to ride a power run game and defense ahead – but no Taylor took that away for this game.
Taylor returns this week, hopefully. It will be interesting to see what Frank Reich does with the team/offense now -- with his job potentially under the gun if they fail to make the playoffs. You can power run over the Houston Texans Week 13, but that doesn’t mean that’s what Reich will do.
My guess is…he does what he always does – unpredictable RBBC.
-- D’Onta Foreman (4-28-0) and Jeremy McNichols (8-20-0, 0-0-0/1) both saw carries in this game…McNichols more touches and more snaps. So, does that make McNichols the proper handcuff?
I think if Henry went down, it would be a 50/50, 60/40 split the first week with Foreman taking the most carries, and McNichols working as more of the pass game back. But if Tennessee wanted to replicate Henry’s game – it would be Foreman becoming the one to own (with McNichols still having a role). He’s the guy looking like/running like Derrick Henry.
-- Michael Pittman (2-28-0/9) had another game that keeps me away from him for FF…it’s not on him, this is a Rivers issue. Rivers’ targeting has been erratic/inconsistent/unpredictable to the WRs all season. Things seem to be shifting more towards T.Y. Hilton (4-81-/1/5) of late, and that connection doesn’t look great either.
Honestly, if I had to say what Rivers’ favorite, or most forced throw is – I’d say it’s Trey Burton, oddly.
-- I’ve been warning that the Colts-DST is not as good as everyone thinks. They got whacked here. They got whacked for chunks of their Green Bay game the week prior. Indy-DST bolstered their scoring against weak offenses (NYJ, CHI) early in the season and have been fading since.
HOU-LV-HOU-PIT the next 4 weeks is not a great set up to get them back to big FF scoring either.
-- The Titans-DST is the better DST to have the next 3 weeks: versus CLE-JAX-DET. The Titans aren’t great on defense either but they’re not terrible…they’re about as good as Indy, but with a better schedule upcoming.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
38 = Alie-Cox
27 = Burton
22 = Doyle
36 = Henry
18 = McNichols
05 = Foreman
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Vikings 28, Panthers 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
What an entertaining game.
It didn’t start out all that entertaining…a 10-7 Vikings lead at the half. Neither team really standing out. However, fireworks went off in the 2nd-half.
In the span of 0:10 game seconds, from 14:01 to 13:51 of the 3rd-quarter, the Panthers got two turnovers back-to-back and converted them both to TDs, both by the same defender (Jeremy Chinn, who may have had his Defensive Rookie of the Year moment here). The Panthers were suddenly in control 21-10.
The Panthers led 24-13, after a Joey Slye FG, with 11+ minutes left in the game. It looked like a Carolina win was coming…and they’d be alive in the playoff hunt.
The Vikings scored with 5+ minutes left to cut it to 24-21. Minnesota then held the Panthers, but on the ensuing punt…Chad Beebe muffed it, turnover, and Carolina with a subsequent field goal to take a 27-21 lead with 1:51 left.
Minnesota then flies down the field and scores a TD (Beebe redemption) to take a 28-27 lead with 0:46 remaining. But then the Panthers fly down the field and lined up for a 54-yard FG attempt to win…the second time in four weeks that the Panthers had a chance to win with a long FG at the buzzer – and Slye shanked it…ball game.
Carolina falls to a heartbreaking (4-8)…so close to a (6-6) or better right now. They’re a low-level playoff caliber team who might finish with 5-6 wins as they use the final weeks to prep for 2021. I want them to lose out so their over/under win total bet for 2021 is as low as possible. I don’t care what the number is, I’m betting Carolina win total ‘over’ and betting them to win the NFC South. Carolina is ‘my’ team starting, officially, in 2021. Matt Rhule is going to be the dominant force head coach of the NFL into the future. Matt Rhule vs. Kyle Shanahan will be the debate in 3-4-5-6-10 years. I go with Rhule.
Round of applause for the Vikings…a terrible (1-5) start, now (5-6) and are the current #7 seed for the playoffs. Winners of four of their last 5 games. They should finish (8-8), with (9-7) possible…and 8 wins is likely good enough to get the #7 seed in the NFC. Week 15 vs. CHI is likely the season for both teams – winner is a wild card, loser is not, possibly.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Panthers seem to be throttling back on the Mike Davis (15-55-0, 3-24-0/6) workload as the season rolls on, which makes sense – he’s an older back who was thrust into a prime role and carried the team early in the season. He’s taken a lot of hits…he always has his entire career and been injury prone because of it. He fights for every yard, and that can be detrimental to his health.
Now that the Panthers are kinda of ‘out of it’ for the playoffs, they are not pushing Davis at all costs…Matt Rhule is smartly (and ‘head coach’ and ‘smart’ can only be used for about 2-4 coaches in the entire league) rotating in younger backs to not only spell Davis – but to see what they got for the future. Why not? It’s smart business management…a thing that 25+ other NFL head coaches never do/have a clue on – business management.
UDFA rookie RB Rodney Smith (7-18-0) has gone from ‘off the streets’ to taking meaningful carries in games (this week and last week). Trenton Cannon (3-17-0) took some carries in this game. Davis had 15 carries; Smith-Cannon took 10 carries in a key game here.
I type all this because:
1) If Christian McCaffrey is not back Week 14, the Panthers may lean even more into a split role backfield because they are playing for the future. No need to grind Mike Davis into the ground. Thus, Davis’s FF upside may be limited ahead.
2) Do you think the Panthers, out of it for the playoffs…playing for 2021+, are going to bring back CMC and shove him 25+ touches instantly in a time where he’s not been 100% most all season?
You should be a little nervous if you’re counting on CMC or Mike D big for the FF playoff stretch. I’m not saying they’re doomed…just there are ‘signs’ creeping in that they may not get the touches you want/need ahead.
-- On the other side of the field, an assistant coach mentioned this week that Dalvin Cook (18-61-0, 4-21-0/4) was getting worn down from his heavy workload in 2020…and Mike Zimmer tried to shut that talk down, but it’s true.
With Cook taking a ton of touches/hits this year, and him being so key to the offense, and with a Week 14 game at Tampa Bay looming, and then a super-critical Week 15 v. CHI – Minnesota needs Dalvin Cook 100% down the stretch.
Do you think the Vikings will overload Cook Week 13 vs. Jacksonville…or will they throttle him back some and get him ready for TB and CHI…and NO the following three weeks?
Logic says they throttle him back where they can. NFL old school, out to lunch head coach logic says Cook gets 30+ touches in a 30+ point win over Jacksonville.
-- The Vikings can beat Jacksonville behind Kirk Cousins (34-45 for 207 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) because he is white hot again…a second season in a row where he started slow and then was fire from about Weeks 2-3 on.
Since Week 3, Cousins has 21 TD passes/7 INTs (9 games). The #11 QB in PPG in fantasy (4pts per pass TD) in that stretch, #9 in 6pts per pass TD…firmly ahead of Big Ben, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Teddy B, Cam, and Philip Rivers among others.
JAX and TB the next two weeks…should be a continuation.
-- Kyle Rudolph (7-68-0/8) had his best game of 2020 this week…with Irv Smith out again.
4.3 rec., 49.8 yards, 0.0 TDs per game his past 4 games…just one TD all season. He’s a possible TE1 vs. JAX if Irv Smith is out again. The Jags aren’t great against the TE as it is. Rudolph is so overdue for a TD.
-- Chad Beebe (7-63-1/7) played a great Cole Beasley/Adam Humphries type game here. He’s capable of rounding out the three-man WR sets and giving the Vikings some decent juice in the passing game. But you can’t count on him for FF week-to-week. He’s not there yet, and probably will never be in this offense…unless Thielen is out again.
-- D.J. Moore (4-61-0/9) landed awkwardly on a leaping catch attempt and has a leg injury. His status for Week 14 is too soon to tell. Again, the Panthers don’t need to ‘push’ players back into action…so, Moore may get the extra week off – which would be more targets for Curtis Samuel (1-5-0, 5-72-0/5).
-- CAR DT/NT Zach Kerr (8 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1 QB hit), a journeyman DT, has quietly caught fire of late…
5.3 total tackles per game, 0.67 sacks, 1.7 QB hits per game his past 3 games playing about a 40-50% snap share.
-- Can you use the Vikings-DST with confidence Week 13 v. JAX? Probably.
The Vikings defense has slowly started to evolve from terrible to not-so-bad. They gave up 27 points this game…but 14 of them were defensive scores. They’ve held their last 5 opponents to an average of 19.8 offensive PPG. That’s high end these days…and they held Green Bay to 22 points in that span as well. Not just crushing patsies.
With their defense coming around. With Kirk Cousins catching fire. With a top run game – I am taking my Survivor Pool pick to Minnesota over the hapless Jags.
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Link to Amazon main page: https://www.amazon.com/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=tfawesbite11-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=44051c116edf4a75e87f1aae12955357&camp=1789&creative=9325
Snap Counts of Interest:
72 = J Jefferson
58 = Bisi Johnson
35 = Beebe
46 = Cook
12 = Mattison
37 = MK Davis
15 = Rodney Smith
10 = Cannon
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7 Game Analysis: Steelers 19, Ravens 14
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
We waited a week…to watch this game? Yeeesh.
We had to put up with all histrionics of all the rescheduling, and who that was and wasn’t fair for. We had to hear, from some, the decrying of the NFL as some monster for trying to play this game with their ‘basically everyone is gonna die’ mentality. Maybe it’s true…but the players are exercising their free will – if everyone reading this were an NFL player, 99.9% of us would play…we would want to play…so, why is the ‘NFL’ such a monster for trying to play the games? COVID exists. The teams know the rules. The teams know it could randomly happen. You just have to adjust.
We all waded through the noise and rescheduling…and then most of us got interested in the novelty of a midday Wednesday game. We were giddy in the morning, ready to partake in an afternoon delight…when we were supposed to be (air quotes) ‘working’. What a fun Wednesday!
…and they delivered us a bunch of turnovers, a bunch of drops, a bunch of 2-yard passes, and a no real ‘wow’ fantasy player production…aside from the Steelers-DST and Marquise Brown (who no one started) on a busted play late.
Football in the afternoon midweek just felt weird. Like when they tried to sell green-colored ketchup a few years ago. Yeah, I know it’s the same everything on taste, consistency… just its just it’s green -- but I’m still not comfortable with it. I’ve been classically conditioned that red ketchup tastes better/normal. 4pm football is to be played on Sundays…not Wednesdays.
This game was muddling along…a defensive score to break the ice by Pittsburgh, but then Baltimore answering back to make 7-6 at the end of the 1st-quarter. The game turned when Ravens CB Jimmy Smith got hurt in the 2nd-quarter…forcing the Ravens to play with another arm tied behind their backs and the Steelers dinked and dunked their way to a 19-7 lead. It seemed over…and then Pittsburgh’s secondary blew a tackle and let Marquise Brown turn a 10+ yard pass into a 70-yard TD scamper. The Ravens couldn’t hold off the Steelers final drive (they almost did) and the clock ran out on the Ravens. Steelers win, unimpressively, 19-14.
After the game, Mike Tomlin called the Steelers effort ‘really junior varsity’ – and that’s my thought on the whole game. Not because of the rosters or COVID or lack of practice…we’ve seen teams lose practice time to COVID issues this year -- and then go out and play better than they have all season. This was just a sloppy game…that the players may have been thrown off their internal clocks playing a game on a Wednesday. Who knows?
Pittsburgh stays undefeated (11-0) and all but has the AFC North locked up…there’s no way Cleveland is catching them. They are bearing down on the #1 seed in the AFC which is tremendously important in 2020. I think the Steelers will fall to Buffalo Week 14…and then things get interesting between them and KC trying to get to the #1 seed.
Baltimore has lost four of their last 5 games to fall to (6-5). They are better than that, but they’ve dealt with key injuries, COVID, bad weather games. Given their schedule, and their situation leading up to this – we might see the Ravens go on a tear and win their last five games in-a-row and go into the playoffs hot. We see them doing just that…finishing (11-5) if Lamar stays healthy…(10-6) worst case. Either way…the Ravens will be in the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Steelers WR report…
1) Diontae Johnson (8-46-0/13) had two bad drops…one that might have been a TD (early in the game) and another drop late in the game for a 20+ yard gain wiped away. It wasn’t a good look for Diontae, but he was otherwise fine the rest of the night.
I hate ‘drops’ too…and when it’s your fantasy guy, you can feel the points being stolen – but we also will so lord over our own ‘kids’ watching these games and thus their mistakes are magnified and blown up into major mental anguish. I had some folks emailing me in-game and post-game asking me if it was time to sell Diontae because of his bad drops problem because he dropped 4-5 passes in the game. I’m like…I need to watch the tape, because I didn’t see that many drops – and I did re-watch, and there weren’t 4-5 drops. But because we’re so close to the action, we tend to remember it that way.
When Diontae caught that 30+ yard pass by adjusting/leaping up and catching it but then the DB swatted his arm down through the ball while they were coming down to the ground and it get knocked loose for an incomplete – that’s not a ‘drop’. It was almost a sweet catch (but a great move by the covering CB) and we’re disappointed, but it’s not a ‘drop’.
Diontae has had easy catch gaffes a bunch this season…a ‘bunch’ to me, because I’m always watching him intently. He’s had like 5-6-7 times this season where he’s had a simple pitch-and-catch and he takes his eyes away and misses the passes and looks stupid. I hope a coach steps in and helps ‘remind’ (needles/punishes) him of this – because I think Diontae is getting a bit full of himself with all these targets but he should work less on dance moves after big plays and more on playing sound football.
Diontae could be great…he could also get a big head and settle for just ‘good’ instead. Ben keeps feeding him, so the monster is getting fed. I don’t know how serious he is on being great, as I watch his every move this season. I know he’s really good. I want great.
Diontae was once again being shutout by the Ravens’ CBs, and then Jimmy Smith got hurt and left the game…AND THEN Diontae started getting all those targets. Diontae is getting ‘A+’ targeting but being a ‘B’ WR with them, to my eyes. Drops, etc., hasn’t been an issue in years past (back to college), so I think it can be fixed/tweaked…but it’s probably a boot in the ass fix more than anything else. Tomlin, I think may let him have it this week…he was not happy after the game.
2) Chase Claypool (6-52-0/9) – not sure why Claypool wasn’t in the game as much as he usually is…he was noticeably out for whole serieses late 2nd-half. We’ll have to see if that was due to being banged up…or if it was some rookie disciplining for something.
3) James Washington (2-19-0/3) – made a huge catch on the final drive to essentially help put the game away…a floated pass between three defenders and JW went up and snatched it away. Just a reminder, for Dynasty…Washington is going to be a starter in 2021, if you assume the Steelers let JuJu walk in free agency, which I think they will.
JuJu has put up good numbers as Diontae-Claypool have gone off…Washington could be in line for some nice numbers in 2021 as part of the trio.
-- Ben Roethlisberger (36-51 for 266 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is getting rid of the ball quickly…so said Cris Collinsworth 10,000 times during the game.
Three things about that…
1) 51 passes for 266 yards here…why is it when Alex Smith does stuff like this we castigate him as a ‘dink and dunk’ QB, but we don’t brand Ben negatively with this? We sing the praises of it.
The bottom five QBs in yards per attempt in 2020 to date:
#32) Foles 9.2
#31) Roethlisberger 9.6
#30) Darnold 9.7
#29) Alex Smith 10.0
#28) Brees 10.0
Ben is 5th in the NFL TD passes…so, does yards per attempt really matter/tell us anything?
2) I think some of this short passing game has them using it as a quasi-replacement for the weak Steelers backfield/run game.
3) All these factors/realities…it means lots of short/quick pass attempts – Ben is #2 in pass attempts in the NFL (Brady #1). This is all good for PPR for Diontae Johnson’s game…the quick little slants, drags, bubbles, etc.
I don’t see Ben quick-passing changing ahead.
-- Lamar Jackson (DNP) hasn’t had a great follow up season to his 2019 MVP campaign – but the next 5 games he could finish on a high note with DAL-CLE-JAX-NYG-CIN.
-- I thought Lamar might finish stronger and be using Dez Bryant (0-0-0/2) as part of the solution going forward…after Dez showed he was the most talented WR on the Ravens Week 11.
Which, of course, meant Dez saw just two targets in a critical, undermanned game here.
Why did they even sign him and elevate him to the main roster?
What were they watching when he showed his skills in Week 11?
I got the message… When in doubt, assume NFL teams will stick with what they do/are comfortable with…even if they keep losing with it.
That’s where Pittsburgh deserves huge credit…most teams would have buried Chase Claypool all season. Not the Steelers. It took them 3-4 games to realize he’s the best WR they have on the team and they moved him to a featured role.
-- Speaking of buried players, Justice Hill (9-35-0, 2-5-0/2) was let out of his cage for the first time…and he looked solid. Joining the Ravens, in this offense, has all but killed his career. He’s been forgotten through no fault of his own. He doesn’t fit this offense at all…and yet he just gets stuck with this team until his contract ends.
No one will trade for him because the only mismanagement worse than head coaches not knowing their talent on the roster are the GMs petrified to make a trade in the NFL for fear it will be ‘wrong’. Now, Hill is ‘old news’, so no one cares in the league.
-- What a schedule ahead for the Ravens-DST: Dalton, Baker, Glennon, Dan Jones, Br Allen to finish the season.
It’s not bad for the Steelers either: A. Smith, Josh Allen, Br Allen, Rivers, Baker. The Steelers-DST has been great all year but I’d rather have the Ravens-DST from here on in…and if you’re locked in with the Steelers-DST – you gotta consider a Week 14 replacement for at Buffalo, if a viable option presents itself. Maybe the weather conditions help roll with the Steelers-DST there, we’ll see.
*Shopping Online with Amazon this Holiday Season? Who isn’t?
Did you know if you click through the Amazon link from the FFM homepage (our partners/shop with us area) it doesn’t change your online shopping experience or cost you any money but somehow the big brother technology credits FFM with helping with the sale and we gets some of Jeff Bezos’s scraps from his solid gold dinner table to help support the FFM efforts and fund our own future technology improvements? It’s one click away, nothing else needed or to register. Thank you for your consideration!
Special Link to Amazon main page: https://www.amazon.com/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=tfawesbite11-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=44051c116edf4a75e87f1aae12955357&camp=1789&creative=9325
Snap Counts of Interest:
28 = Edwards
26 = J Hill
67 = JuJu
65 = Diontae
45 = Claypool
24 = J Wash
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Steelers 19, Ravens 14
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
We waited a week…to watch this game? Yeeesh.
We had to put up with all histrionics of all the rescheduling, and who that was and wasn’t fair for. We had to hear, from some, the decrying of the NFL as some monster for trying to play this game with their ‘basically everyone is gonna die’ mentality. Maybe it’s true…but the players are exercising their free will – if everyone reading this were an NFL player, 99.9% of us would play…we would want to play…so, why is the ‘NFL’ such a monster for trying to play the games? COVID exists. The teams know the rules. The teams know it could randomly happen. You just have to adjust.
We all waded through the noise and rescheduling…and then most of us got interested in the novelty of a midday Wednesday game. We were giddy in the morning, ready to partake in an afternoon delight…when we were supposed to be (air quotes) ‘working’. What a fun Wednesday!
…and they delivered us a bunch of turnovers, a bunch of drops, a bunch of 2-yard passes, and a no real ‘wow’ fantasy player production…aside from the Steelers-DST and Marquise Brown (who no one started) on a busted play late.
Football in the afternoon midweek just felt weird. Like when they tried to sell green-colored ketchup a few years ago. Yeah, I know it’s the same everything on taste, consistency… just its just it’s green -- but I’m still not comfortable with it. I’ve been classically conditioned that red ketchup tastes better/normal. 4pm football is to be played on Sundays…not Wednesdays.
This game was muddling along…a defensive score to break the ice by Pittsburgh, but then Baltimore answering back to make 7-6 at the end of the 1st-quarter. The game turned when Ravens CB Jimmy Smith got hurt in the 2nd-quarter…forcing the Ravens to play with another arm tied behind their backs and the Steelers dinked and dunked their way to a 19-7 lead. It seemed over…and then Pittsburgh’s secondary blew a tackle and let Marquise Brown turn a 10+ yard pass into a 70-yard TD scamper. The Ravens couldn’t hold off the Steelers final drive (they almost did) and the clock ran out on the Ravens. Steelers win, unimpressively, 19-14.
After the game, Mike Tomlin called the Steelers effort ‘really junior varsity’ – and that’s my thought on the whole game. Not because of the rosters or COVID or lack of practice…we’ve seen teams lose practice time to COVID issues this year -- and then go out and play better than they have all season. This was just a sloppy game…that the players may have been thrown off their internal clocks playing a game on a Wednesday. Who knows?
Pittsburgh stays undefeated (11-0) and all but has the AFC North locked up…there’s no way Cleveland is catching them. They are bearing down on the #1 seed in the AFC which is tremendously important in 2020. I think the Steelers will fall to Buffalo Week 14…and then things get interesting between them and KC trying to get to the #1 seed.
Baltimore has lost four of their last 5 games to fall to (6-5). They are better than that, but they’ve dealt with key injuries, COVID, bad weather games. Given their schedule, and their situation leading up to this – we might see the Ravens go on a tear and win their last five games in-a-row and go into the playoffs hot. We see them doing just that…finishing (11-5) if Lamar stays healthy…(10-6) worst case. Either way…the Ravens will be in the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Steelers WR report…
1) Diontae Johnson (8-46-0/13) had two bad drops…one that might have been a TD (early in the game) and another drop late in the game for a 20+ yard gain wiped away. It wasn’t a good look for Diontae, but he was otherwise fine the rest of the night.
I hate ‘drops’ too…and when it’s your fantasy guy, you can feel the points being stolen – but we also will so lord over our own ‘kids’ watching these games and thus their mistakes are magnified and blown up into major mental anguish. I had some folks emailing me in-game and post-game asking me if it was time to sell Diontae because of his bad drops problem because he dropped 4-5 passes in the game. I’m like…I need to watch the tape, because I didn’t see that many drops – and I did re-watch, and there weren’t 4-5 drops. But because we’re so close to the action, we tend to remember it that way.
When Diontae caught that 30+ yard pass by adjusting/leaping up and catching it but then the DB swatted his arm down through the ball while they were coming down to the ground and it get knocked loose for an incomplete – that’s not a ‘drop’. It was almost a sweet catch (but a great move by the covering CB) and we’re disappointed, but it’s not a ‘drop’.
Diontae has had easy catch gaffes a bunch this season…a ‘bunch’ to me, because I’m always watching him intently. He’s had like 5-6-7 times this season where he’s had a simple pitch-and-catch and he takes his eyes away and misses the passes and looks stupid. I hope a coach steps in and helps ‘remind’ (needles/punishes) him of this – because I think Diontae is getting a bit full of himself with all these targets but he should work less on dance moves after big plays and more on playing sound football.
Diontae could be great…he could also get a big head and settle for just ‘good’ instead. Ben keeps feeding him, so the monster is getting fed. I don’t know how serious he is on being great, as I watch his every move this season. I know he’s really good. I want great.
Diontae was once again being shutout by the Ravens’ CBs, and then Jimmy Smith got hurt and left the game…AND THEN Diontae started getting all those targets. Diontae is getting ‘A+’ targeting but being a ‘B’ WR with them, to my eyes. Drops, etc., hasn’t been an issue in years past (back to college), so I think it can be fixed/tweaked…but it’s probably a boot in the ass fix more than anything else. Tomlin, I think may let him have it this week…he was not happy after the game.
2) Chase Claypool (6-52-0/9) – not sure why Claypool wasn’t in the game as much as he usually is…he was noticeably out for whole serieses late 2nd-half. We’ll have to see if that was due to being banged up…or if it was some rookie disciplining for something.
3) James Washington (2-19-0/3) – made a huge catch on the final drive to essentially help put the game away…a floated pass between three defenders and JW went up and snatched it away. Just a reminder, for Dynasty…Washington is going to be a starter in 2021, if you assume the Steelers let JuJu walk in free agency, which I think they will.
JuJu has put up good numbers as Diontae-Claypool have gone off…Washington could be in line for some nice numbers in 2021 as part of the trio.
-- Ben Roethlisberger (36-51 for 266 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is getting rid of the ball quickly…so said Cris Collinsworth 10,000 times during the game.
Three things about that…
1) 51 passes for 266 yards here…why is it when Alex Smith does stuff like this we castigate him as a ‘dink and dunk’ QB, but we don’t brand Ben negatively with this? We sing the praises of it.
The bottom five QBs in yards per attempt in 2020 to date:
#32) Foles 9.2
#31) Roethlisberger 9.6
#30) Darnold 9.7
#29) Alex Smith 10.0
#28) Brees 10.0
Ben is 5th in the NFL TD passes…so, does yards per attempt really matter/tell us anything?
2) I think some of this short passing game has them using it as a quasi-replacement for the weak Steelers backfield/run game.
3) All these factors/realities…it means lots of short/quick pass attempts – Ben is #2 in pass attempts in the NFL (Brady #1). This is all good for PPR for Diontae Johnson’s game…the quick little slants, drags, bubbles, etc.
I don’t see Ben quick-passing changing ahead.
-- Lamar Jackson (DNP) hasn’t had a great follow up season to his 2019 MVP campaign – but the next 5 games he could finish on a high note with DAL-CLE-JAX-NYG-CIN.
-- I thought Lamar might finish stronger and be using Dez Bryant (0-0-0/2) as part of the solution going forward…after Dez showed he was the most talented WR on the Ravens Week 11.
Which, of course, meant Dez saw just two targets in a critical, undermanned game here.
Why did they even sign him and elevate him to the main roster?
What were they watching when he showed his skills in Week 11?
I got the message… When in doubt, assume NFL teams will stick with what they do/are comfortable with…even if they keep losing with it.
That’s where Pittsburgh deserves huge credit…most teams would have buried Chase Claypool all season. Not the Steelers. It took them 3-4 games to realize he’s the best WR they have on the team and they moved him to a featured role.
-- Speaking of buried players, Justice Hill (9-35-0, 2-5-0/2) was let out of his cage for the first time…and he looked solid. Joining the Ravens, in this offense, has all but killed his career. He’s been forgotten through no fault of his own. He doesn’t fit this offense at all…and yet he just gets stuck with this team until his contract ends.
No one will trade for him because the only mismanagement worse than head coaches not knowing their talent on the roster are the GMs petrified to make a trade in the NFL for fear it will be ‘wrong’. Now, Hill is ‘old news’, so no one cares in the league.
-- What a schedule ahead for the Ravens-DST: Dalton, Baker, Glennon, Dan Jones, Br Allen to finish the season.
It’s not bad for the Steelers either: A. Smith, Josh Allen, Br Allen, Rivers, Baker. The Steelers-DST has been great all year but I’d rather have the Ravens-DST from here on in…and if you’re locked in with the Steelers-DST – you gotta consider a Week 14 replacement for at Buffalo, if a viable option presents itself. Maybe the weather conditions help roll with the Steelers-DST there, we’ll see.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
28 = Edwards
26 = J Hill
67 = JuJu
65 = Diontae
45 = Claypool
24 = J Wash
