- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Steelers 36, Bengals 10
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game was never really in doubt. The Steelers were getting into scoring position on most every drive it seemed. 22-7 Pitt at the half….36-7 with 10+ minutes left before they started just running the time out to get it over with.
We should probably just ignore the outcomes of this game because it was such a mismatch, but we’re going to dive into some players notes regardless.
The Steelers are now (9-0) with potential to go undefeated, but more likely they’ll lose Week 12 v. BAL and/or Week 14 at BUF…or stumble somewhere. They do not feel like a juggernaut at all. The Steelers are this great undefeated story playing out right now, but Week 12 is a big hurdle moment – lose to BAL, and they let the Ravens have some hope for the AFC North title. Defeat the Ravens, and they likely banish the Ravens to flash in the pan status (2019 season) and send them back to Baltimore wondering about a complete overhaul of the team. Also, defeating Baltimore Week 12 means the AFC South belongs to the Steelers for 2020…then they can move on to ‘going undefeated’ or not.
The Bengals fall to (2-6-1), and are in another ‘wait ‘til next year’ season. The Bengals might bag another game or two and finish with 3-4 wins…maybe 5 if things break right. Something to build on with Burrow in 2021+.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Note, first and foremost, all three Steelers WRs ‘ate’ this week – all three of them with 20+ PPR points in the game. No odd man out this week, which was comforting.
I just want to point out three things:
1) This was against Cincy, so it can be a bit misleading…but we’ll take it. Getting drunk on cheap whiskey is fine.
2) Dionte Johnson (6-116-1/11) was open, and Ben threw to, but didn’t connect on a 40+ and a 50+ yard play that one or both could’ve been a TD. Diontae just missed out on another 10+ points.
3) Chase Claypool (4-56-2/10), I counted, had near-miss/was open, four catches for 157+ yards, and 2 more TDs. I would have appreciated an 8-205-4/11 game. Ben mostly ‘just’ missed or once CC was held on a potential 20+ yard TD strike.
I mention this mostly to say…when Ben wants a TD, he’s looking to Claypool first and foremost. Claypool has 9 TDs already this season…he has been knocking on the door of having 15+ of them this year. The upside here is ‘wow’.
Taking into consideration his rushing TDs…Claypool is tied with Davante and Thielen for 2nd most TDs by a WR this season (9). Tyreek Hill leads the way with 10.
In total TDs, the league lead now:
13 = Cook
11 = Kamara
10 = Tyreek
09 = Claypool, Davante, Thielen, Gurley
-- Because of the matchup and the weapons, Ben Roethlisberger (27-46 for 333 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) had his best game of the 2020 season (despite missing practice all week with COVID quarantine AND sustaining a knee injury last week). I’m hoping this is a sign to come the rest of the season, prior Ben was throwing for good TDs but lower yards.
If the run game continues to fail, we might see more crazy Ben passing games ahead.
-- James Conner (13-36-0, 2-12-0/2) is failing, for sure…miserably.
37 carries for 105 yards (2.8 yards per carry) his last three games combined, not hitting over 50+ yards rushing in any of those three games.
I’m wondering if Bennie Snell (3-12-0) might get some more work ahead. However, in this blowout, we only saw Snell at the very end taking garbage/game ending carries.
I also wonder if this is where Jordan Howard is going to wind up.
The Steelers cannot go undefeated and ultimately get past KC, if they cannot run the ball effectively…and they have the worst 1-2 punch of RBs in the league outside of NYJ and Miami with Conner-Snell.
-- Gio Bernard (8-30-0, 4-17-0/7) and Samaje Perine (7-48-0, 1-7-0/1) both rushed for more yards than Conner, on less carries AND facing the Steelers run defense.
Joe Mixon may be conveniently (got his big contract right before the season) taking the rest of the season off with a foot issue…making Gio a lead back for the ROS in a 65/35 split with my man Samaje Perine. Gio looks solid as always…Perine looks like he belongs in the NFL, he’s always deserved better.
Perine would be the best RB on the Steelers roster today.
Perine is also better than the Jets’ Perine, but no one cares but me…
We did get to see Trayveon Williams (5-22-0) in garbage time. Looked fine. Not enough tape to work with to get excited one way or the other.
-- I can take a lot of credit for my Chase Claypool scouting, but in turn I take a big ‘L’ on my Tee Higgins (7-115-1/9) pre-Draft assessment. I never saw THIS Higgins in my studies…not on tape, not on computer/paper. I missed this by a mile. I thought he was a joke, but he’s no joke. He’s nowhere as good as Claypool, but Tee looks terrific with Joe Burrow.
Auden Tate (2-24-0/4) looks like a junior version of Tee Higgins…and Tate is about to become/is the #3 WR for Cincy now. Why?
A.J. Green (0-0-0/5) needs to be put out to pasture. He’s been toast since I said he was after Week 2. Nice career. Thank you for your service…buh-bye.
Green has caught 31 passes off 68 targets…a 35.1% catch rate with a highly accurate passer this season. AJG can’t get open and is dropping passes on top of that. It’s over.
-- Journeyman CB Tony Brown (9 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 PD) somehow is the starting CB for the Bengals now? Helluva IDP tally for his debut as a starter. I don’t see anything special here, but I’m opening to looking at more of his work. I’m sure he’ll get picked on a lot ahead…that’s good for IDP numbers.
Snap Counts of Interest:
63 = Diontae
61 = JuJu
44 = Claypool
28 = JWash
64 = Conner
04 = Snell
01 = Samuels
44 = Gio
16 = Perine
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7 Game Analysis: Dolphins 29, Chargers 21
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was just a simple game of the Chargers shooting themselves in the foot right off the bat, and the Miami defense just sat on the lead and walked away with the victory.
Miami halted LAC on the opening drive, then the LAC punt attempt was botched/blocked and set up Miami at the 1-yard line for their first offensive play. It was 7-0 Miami in a blink. Next series, Miami driving, settling for a short field goal after the Chargers defense held on 3rd & short…but on the easy FG chip shot, LAC lined up offsides. Back onto the field for the Miami offense, for another easy TD. It was 14-0 after the 1st-quarter and Miami had barely had to put up any offense to do it.
After the 14-0 start, the Chargers won the next three quarters 21-15…but it wasn’t enough to win the game. Miami’s defense was strong, and the Chargers invent new ways to lose every week. The Chargers have to finish (6-1) for me to lose my 7.5 win ‘under’ win total bet on them – Anthony Lynn’s parting gift to me. I should’ve lost this bet big time, instead I’ll cash in as Lynn cashes out.
The Chargers are (2-7), but they should be (7-2) given how well Justin Herbert has played. We project LAC (5-11) to the finish, but (7-9) is possible…but so is (4-12).
Miami is now (6-3) and making their case stronger and stronger for the playoffs and have pulled to within a game of first place. Three very winnable games ahead (DEN, NYJ, CIN) could get them to (9-3) and then a tough schedule end should throw them back to 9-10 wins in the end and a wild card, not an AFC East title…but it’s now possible, in our projections, Miami could win the AFC East. If Miami loses one of their next 3 games, they won’t win the AFC East for sure.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- In the battle of the rookie QBs, there was a clear winner…
For the mainstream, it’s already over…the race has been called for Tua Tagovailoa (15-25 for 169 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 6-0-0). He’s better than Justin Herbert (20-32 for 187 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 4-10-1).
Sure, they will tell you that Herbert is having a great year and is the likely Rookie of the Year, but that’s just a speed bump on the way to talking about how great Tua has been already and will be to come. Why? He was THEIR guy before 2019, and they ain’t changing now.
And just like with political news, the story is shaped through the ‘_____-colored glasses’ of the particular media person reporting…in this case we have Tua-colored glasses across TV analyst-land. When Tua throws a basic pass for a completion, the analysts are near orgasmic…they’ve never seen anything like the 5-yard pass Tua throws off a rollout.
In this game, Tua had 2-3 picks that didn’t happen (dropped, etc.). Sometimes it just works that way…and thus hides the problem and believe me there is a Tua problem happening – or just he is too overhyped. But on one particular near-pick, Tua threw into double coverage with a defender in front of his receiver breaking on the pass. The defender put his hands/arms out to get the pick, but the ball went right through his hands clean – a total whiff…and then the pass made it to the receiver who made the catch. I thought, what a stupid pass? The TV analyst belched, “What an amazing throw by Tua!!”
They see what they want to see.
I see a QB still with huge limitations to his play. All kinds of trouble in the pocket. Not enough arm when the pocket is slightly muddy. He’s good rolling out and throwing on the run on short passes…and, to me, that is the telltale sign of a QB who is not ready for high level NFL play. You watch Herbert and Burrow put on masterclasses with pressure all around them in the pocket…and they zip the ball to receivers all over the field. Tua needs a diversion like a rollout or counter rollout to get him space/comfort to throw. Otherwise, he doesn’t even look at anything besides quick throwing to the redetermined receiver whether they are covered or not.
If I had Tua, and I don’t anywhere, I’d sell him fast…on this unwarranted hysteria.
If I had anything related to Tua, I’d sell it fast…
DeVante Parker (2-31-0/7) is averaging 3.0 rec. (5.3 targets) for 32.7 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game in Tua’s three starts.
-- I’d Include not trusting Salvon Ahmed (21-85-1) or just selling him off hot too.
Ahmed got a cheap TD off a blocked punt that started Miami’s game at 1st & goal from the 1-yard line. Other than that, he ran for about 4.0 yards per carry and every time Tua gets near the red zone, a field goal is the likely outcome.
When Myles Gaskin returns…he’ll be the starter and Ahmed will go bye-bye.
I’d much rather have Kalen Ballage (18-68-0, 5-34-0/6), the new workhorse starter for the Chargers in a much better, higher scoring offense ahead.
It’s 2020…so debating Ahmed, Ballage, and Gaskin is a real thing. If you got Ballage ahead of his revival now, you may have settled your backfield issues and can go on to compete for a title. Ballage is an RB1 projection/hopeful rest of the season…as long as Austin Ekeler doesn’t reappear.
DeAndre Washington barely played. No sign of life here, so far.
-- Jordan Howard was released by Miami this week.
My guess is he will sign with a contender to try and win a Super Bowl. My guesses at his landing spot would be Buffalo, NY Giants, Pittsburgh…the Steelers would not surprise as me as shock landing spot, of which he’ll just be a backup unless Conner goes down and out.
-- Buy the LAC WRs on the dips…
This down week may have been a response/plan to work away from Miami’s excellent pass defense, CB-duo.
Keenan Allen (3-39-1/7) is magic with Justin Herbert…a true WR1. If you get a deal on him take it.
Mike Williams (2-38-0/5) is their erratic #2 WR, but you want the #2 WR on high functioning pass games when you can get them cheap. Williams is a fringe WR3 for people…easy to get.
-- In Tua’s three starts, so far…
3.0 rec. (5.3 targets) for 32.7 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game = DeVante Parker
3.0 rec. (4.0 targets) for 31.0 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game = Jakeem Grant (+ a PR TD)
Jakeem Grant might be a better FF WR with Tua than Parker is…lesser covered, simple short throw (bubble screen, etc.).
-- LAC SAF Nasir Adderley (8 tackles) is averaging 6.7 total tackles per game the past three games. He’s been a LAC starter since Week 2 and been solid most weeks, but his tackle counts are slowly rising as the season wears on.
-- In Week 4, Miami got back Byron Jones from injury and thus had their great CB-duo (Howard-Jones) in place and they started firing on all cylinders from there.
Since Week 4, Miami-DST is the #1 DST scorer PPG in fantasy…ahead of Pittsburgh and everyone else.
AND NOW the good games are coming…at DEN, at NYJ the next two weeks. You could run this DST the rest of the season except for Week 14 v. KC.
Snap Counts of Interest:
53 = Parker
44 = JK Grant
11 = Hollins
44 = Ahmed
23 = M Perry
10 = Laird
04 = DA Washington
39 = Smythe
28 = Gesicki
22 = Shaheen
46 = Ballage
17 = J Kelley
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Dolphins 29, Chargers 21
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was just a simple game of the Chargers shooting themselves in the foot right off the bat, and the Miami defense just sat on the lead and walked away with the victory.
Miami halted LAC on the opening drive, then the LAC punt attempt was botched/blocked and set up Miami at the 1-yard line for their first offensive play. It was 7-0 Miami in a blink. Next series, Miami driving, settling for a short field goal after the Chargers defense held on 3rd & short…but on the easy FG chip shot, LAC lined up offsides. Back onto the field for the Miami offense, for another easy TD. It was 14-0 after the 1st-quarter and Miami had barely had to put up any offense to do it.
After the 14-0 start, the Chargers won the next three quarters 21-15…but it wasn’t enough to win the game. Miami’s defense was strong, and the Chargers invent new ways to lose every week. The Chargers have to finish (6-1) for me to lose my 7.5 win ‘under’ win total bet on them – Anthony Lynn’s parting gift to me. I should’ve lost this bet big time, instead I’ll cash in as Lynn cashes out.
The Chargers are (2-7), but they should be (7-2) given how well Justin Herbert has played. We project LAC (5-11) to the finish, but (7-9) is possible…but so is (4-12).
Miami is now (6-3) and making their case stronger and stronger for the playoffs and have pulled to within a game of first place. Three very winnable games ahead (DEN, NYJ, CIN) could get them to (9-3) and then a tough schedule end should throw them back to 9-10 wins in the end and a wild card, not an AFC East title…but it’s now possible, in our projections, Miami could win the AFC East. If Miami loses one of their next 3 games, they won’t win the AFC East for sure.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- In the battle of the rookie QBs, there was a clear winner…
For the mainstream, it’s already over…the race has been called for Tua Tagovailoa (15-25 for 169 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 6-0-0). He’s better than Justin Herbert (20-32 for 187 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 4-10-1).
Sure, they will tell you that Herbert is having a great year and is the likely Rookie of the Year, but that’s just a speed bump on the way to talking about how great Tua has been already and will be to come. Why? He was THEIR guy before 2019, and they ain’t changing now.
And just like with political news, the story is shaped through the ‘_____-colored glasses’ of the particular media person reporting…in this case we have Tua-colored glasses across TV analyst-land. When Tua throws a basic pass for a completion, the analysts are near orgasmic…they’ve never seen anything like the 5-yard pass Tua throws off a rollout.
In this game, Tua had 2-3 picks that didn’t happen (dropped, etc.). Sometimes it just works that way…and thus hides the problem and believe me there is a Tua problem happening – or just he is too overhyped. But on one particular near-pick, Tua threw into double coverage with a defender in front of his receiver breaking on the pass. The defender put his hands/arms out to get the pick, but the ball went right through his hands clean – a total whiff…and then the pass made it to the receiver who made the catch. I thought, what a stupid pass? The TV analyst belched, “What an amazing throw by Tua!!”
They see what they want to see.
I see a QB still with huge limitations to his play. All kinds of trouble in the pocket. Not enough arm when the pocket is slightly muddy. He’s good rolling out and throwing on the run on short passes…and, to me, that is the telltale sign of a QB who is not ready for high level NFL play. You watch Herbert and Burrow put on masterclasses with pressure all around them in the pocket…and they zip the ball to receivers all over the field. Tua needs a diversion like a rollout or counter rollout to get him space/comfort to throw. Otherwise, he doesn’t even look at anything besides quick throwing to the redetermined receiver whether they are covered or not.
If I had Tua, and I don’t anywhere, I’d sell him fast…on this unwarranted hysteria.
If I had anything related to Tua, I’d sell it fast…
DeVante Parker (2-31-0/7) is averaging 3.0 rec. (5.3 targets) for 32.7 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game in Tua’s three starts.
-- I’d Include not trusting Salvon Ahmed (21-85-1) or just selling him off hot too.
Ahmed got a cheap TD off a blocked punt that started Miami’s game at 1st & goal from the 1-yard line. Other than that, he ran for about 4.0 yards per carry and every time Tua gets near the red zone, a field goal is the likely outcome.
When Myles Gaskin returns…he’ll be the starter and Ahmed will go bye-bye.
I’d much rather have Kalen Ballage (18-68-0, 5-34-0/6), the new workhorse starter for the Chargers in a much better, higher scoring offense ahead.
It’s 2020…so debating Ahmed, Ballage, and Gaskin is a real thing. If you got Ballage ahead of his revival now, you may have settled your backfield issues and can go on to compete for a title. Ballage is an RB1 projection/hopeful rest of the season…as long as Austin Ekeler doesn’t reappear.
DeAndre Washington barely played. No sign of life here, so far.
-- Jordan Howard was released by Miami this week.
My guess is he will sign with a contender to try and win a Super Bowl. My guesses at his landing spot would be Buffalo, NY Giants, Pittsburgh…the Steelers would not surprise as me as shock landing spot, of which he’ll just be a backup unless Conner goes down and out.
-- Buy the LAC WRs on the dips…
This down week may have been a response/plan to work away from Miami’s excellent pass defense, CB-duo.
Keenan Allen (3-39-1/7) is magic with Justin Herbert…a true WR1. If you get a deal on him take it.
Mike Williams (2-38-0/5) is their erratic #2 WR, but you want the #2 WR on high functioning pass games when you can get them cheap. Williams is a fringe WR3 for people…easy to get.
-- In Tua’s three starts, so far…
3.0 rec. (5.3 targets) for 32.7 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game = DeVante Parker
3.0 rec. (4.0 targets) for 31.0 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game = Jakeem Grant (+ a PR TD)
Jakeem Grant might be a better FF WR with Tua than Parker is…lesser covered, simple short throw (bubble screen, etc.).
-- LAC SAF Nasir Adderley (8 tackles) is averaging 6.7 total tackles per game the past three games. He’s been a LAC starter since Week 2 and been solid most weeks, but his tackle counts are slowly rising as the season wears on.
-- In Week 4, Miami got back Byron Jones from injury and thus had their great CB-duo (Howard-Jones) in place and they started firing on all cylinders from there.
Since Week 4, Miami-DST is the #1 DST scorer PPG in fantasy…ahead of Pittsburgh and everyone else.
AND NOW the good games are coming…at DEN, at NYJ the next two weeks. You could run this DST the rest of the season except for Week 14 v. KC.
Snap Counts of Interest:
53 = Parker
44 = JK Grant
11 = Hollins
44 = Ahmed
23 = M Perry
10 = Laird
04 = DA Washington
39 = Smythe
28 = Gesicki
22 = Shaheen
46 = Ballage
17 = J Kelley
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Rams 23, Seahawks 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Rams got up 10-7 in this game, in the last 1st-quarter…and they just led the rest of the way and won the game. Seattle had chances, but the Rams defense held in key spots every time. Seattle converted 50% of its third downs, which is usually a good number foretelling of a nice offensive showing…but Russell Wilson didn’t throw a TD pass, did throw two picks…really threw a third pick which was a pick-six, but reversed by penalty – something just seemed off, the Rams played solid D and just out-efficiency’d the Seahawks. Seattle scored a season low 16 points and just 1 TD here.
The football world sees this as some great win by the Rams, and some weird let down by Seattle – but the Seahawks aren’t a ‘great’ team. I’m not sure beating Seattle is the big victory we think/feel it is right now. Seattle losing to good teams…it shouldn’t be a shock. They’ve lost three of their last 4 games, but we act like Seattle is this Super Bowl juggernaut. They are not. They’re like the Mike McCarthy Green Bay Packers of the past decade – poorly coached, saved by the elite QB so you don’t notice how bad they are, wins enough games because of the QB to keep respect/keep jobs…but we look back in 10 years and wonder why they never went to the Super Bowl again over a decade with one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game…Pete Carroll is quietly following that McCarthy-GB blueprint?
Seattle is now (6-3) and is playing a huge statement game on TNF this week hosting Arizona. If Seattle can win that game, and I think they will, they have a very easy schedule ahead and can get to 11-12 wins and keep everyone conned. If they lose to Arizona, then Seattle has way more issues than we’ve all realized and they are headed to a 9-10 win season and a wild card more likely. Boy, is their schedule ahead a gift to save them, though.
The Rams are now (6-3) as well. They have a bit harder of a road to finish out. Huge game at Tampa Bay this week, a likely loss and then they will project out to 9-10 wins and a battle with Seattle and Arizona for the division, where Seattle and Arizona have an upper hand due to schedule…and the Rams just lost their top O-Lineman for the rest of the season, a huge blow.
I focused a lot on Seattle in the opening, but that is a disservice to the Rams…they are a very good ‘good’ team. Not Super Bowl faves, but solid all the way around – a secretly forming heavy run game + stout defense team we think is a highflyer offense. They are going the Gruden way (which McVay is a disciple of)…smartly schemed, RB-led (a committee approach here), and ball/clock possession wins.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I’m not going to try and say Russell Wilson (22-37 for 248 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) is bad or anything or ‘sell now’, but I will note his numbers/output has been eroding for a few weeks now. Under 265 yards passing in three of his last 5 games. 9 TDs/7 INTs his past 4 games.
On RW’s next pick thrown this season, it will tie him for his career high INTs thrown in a season (11)…and we got 7 games left to go! Something is getting a touch weird here.
On the positive side, he’s running more to make up for his numbers…46.0 yards rushing per game the past five games.
The pattern is – when he’s facing good teams, he’s losing and throwing more picks…and it seems to be getting worse as we go. He’s also starting to get sacked a lot, and that has a lot to do with it…sacked 11 times the past two games.
-- Wilson’s struggles are taking D.K. Metcalf’s (2-28-0/4) numbers down with him. Two 2-catch games in his last 4 for Metcalf. Two games under 30 yards receiving for Metcalf…how is that even possible?
Four targets in this game, as Jalen Ramsey shut him down…but really there were a few occasions DKM was open and Wilson just missed him. A 50+ yard TD with DKM running a yard+ ahead of Ramsey down the sidelines and the ball was offline and incomplete.
I’m buying Metcalf if anyone is selling.
More perplexing to me is Tyler Lockett (5-66-0/9). His season has gone from great to little blip/bump in the road, to now he’s a WR3-4 week-to-week.
His PPR scoring in games since Week 4…
5.9
8.4
53.9
7.3
8.0
11.7.
One mammoth game…and a bunch of WR3-4 games otherwise.
It’s hard to bench Lockett, because that’s when he’ll pop for a monster game…but he’s been killing you more than helping four of the last 5 games…as Wilson is fading, so is Lockett.
-- This is the game Cam Akers (10-38-0) became the starter for the Rams. He won’t officially start the games yet, but this is where Sean McVay revealed his cards/heart…and he showed us his heart on his sleeve this game.
But note that ‘the main guy’ at RB for the Rams is mostly meaningless. It’s a fantasy-death RBBC trio.
Darrell Henderson (7-28-1, 1-5-0/1) started, and looked great for 1.5 quarters…but then, as it seems every game lately, he’s done after putting in a good 1+ quarter of work and then punches out on the timeclock and is watching the other guys pick up where he left off.
Only, this game was a new twist of game flow with the LAR RBs: Akers didn’t just come in for some sprinkled in carries as the game wore on. No, he was in on the 3rd-play of the game, and he pretty much carried the 2nd-4th quarters. Malcolm Brown (6-33-2, 2-18-0/2) sprinkled in near the goal line and 3rd-downs.
Essentially, Henderson and Akers are splitting 1st and 2nd downs and Brown is the 3rd-down back. Akers is more ‘the guy’, but they all share the backfield like a hippie commune. It’s fantasy death.
-- Alex Collins (11-43-1, 1-4-0/2) was out of football for a year+, no one in the NFL wanted him, and he got signed in desperation a few weeks ago…and after two solid DeeJay Dallas (2-8-0, 2-23-0/3) weeks, Dallas was ditched and Collins became the starter out of nowhere…and got treated better than Dallas…Homer…Henderson…Brown…or Akers.
That’s why the Rams' situation is fantasy death.
Collins looked really solid/fine in his reemergence.
As soon as Carlos Hyde or Chris Carson can play, Collins will be ditched. More likely Hyde Week 11 is ‘the guy’.
As soon as Chris Carson can play, then Hyde will be a backup for heavy Carson.
I have no idea what Rashaad Penny is doing in the meantime. He is back running and cutting, nearing a return to REALLY make this confusing…if Carson goes back down again.
-- Best looking WR on the Rams this game, and it’s a growing trend…Josh Reynolds (8-94-0/10). He’s outscoring Tyler Lockett most weeks now the past 4-5 weeks.
I’m not joking – Reynolds looks REALLY good, smooth. He benefits from less attention in coverage but note that he is going to take targets away from Woods-Kupp ahead, in some small-medium way. He’s playing too well not to see looks. He’s still just a WR3-4 flyer in the LAR pecking order.
5.3 catches, 63.3 yards, 0.33 TDs per game the past three games.
-- Two IDPs to point out…
SEA SAF D.J. Reed (10 tackles, 1 TFL) has started the last two games, played three total games this season, and is averaging 7.3 tackles, 0.67 PDs, 0.33 TFLs in those three games. He has relegated Ryan Neal out of the picture. Neal was hot with IDP numbers prior to Reed popping.
LAR CB Darious Williams (1 tackle, 2 INTs, 3 PDs) was the MVP of this game. Two interceptions, a third he took back for a pick-six but it got called back. He now has 4 INTs on the season and is averaging 1.1 PDs per game. His coverage numbers on completion percentage allowed (52.6%) and QB rating allowed at him (42.3) are getting to Pro Bowl level.
If you wondered why Russell Wilson looked so bad here…look no further than the Ramsey-Williams CB-duo, emerging as one of the best in the business.
The Rams are #3 in pass defense (yds per game allowed). They are #1 in least amount of pass TDs allowed (9) this season.
The Rams-DST is getting hot, and if anyone dropped them because of ‘vs. SEA’ last week or drops this week for fear of Tom Brady…they are too good to ignore Weeks 12-15.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Woods
56 = JReyn
37 = Kupp
13 = Van J
29 = M Brown
23 = DHendo
18 = Akers
32 = A Collins
22 = Dallas
07 = Homer
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Bucs 46, Panthers 23
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Quite frankly, I have no idea how this game got so out of hand. Carolina took a quick 7-0 lead, and pretty much dominated/led Tampa Bay all first half. TB scored late right before halftime to tie it 17-17.
The Bucs won the second half 29-6.
This is who the Bucs are, all in one game…
In the first half, you’re like…man this team is poorly coached/executed, Brady is getting old, this defense is good but has gaffes…and then in the second half Brady is air raiding and the defense is flashing ’85 Bears’ again. The Jekyll & Hyde of the Bucs 2020 happened all in one game here. This ended up a laugher, but it really wasn’t for about the first 35 minutes.
The Bucs are now (7-3) and are chasing the Saints in the NFC South, who lost Drew Brees for a while. The Bucs’ window is now to make a move, but bad news – they play the Rams and Chiefs the next two weeks. Two very tough opponents. If TB can split those two games, they should finish (12-4) and possibly win the South. If they slip to (11-5) for the finish…they’ll be a wild card. The Saints own the tiebreaker over them.
The Panthers just played the two best teams in football in back-to-back weeks…they’re unlucky. They’ve lost five in-a-row, but they aren’t playing like the (3-7) team they are. Carolina could win their next three games and get to (6-7) and have some long shot wildcard hopes, but likely they will finish with 6-7 wins tops. With another loss they may just shut down Christian McCaffrey for the season and then end up with 5-6 wins as they prep for 2021.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Two very important FF-things that jumped out at me re-watching this tape…
1) Curtis Samuel (3-4-0, 3-8-0/5) had a bad FF game/output, but I’ve never been as encouraged by his usage more than after watching this game.
Samuel was the first target of the game, and then he was also the second…and the second one being him at tail back on play #3 of the game. Second series, Samuel was the first target again, and he played more lined up at tail back.
I’ve not seen Samuel lined up in the backfield during 2020 as much as I saw it here.
Why did he FF-suck then? Tampa Bay has the #1 run defense in the league, and they came to play this game. Everything was shut down.
The Bucs so dominated time of possession that Carolina only ran 48 offensive plays, where 65+ is the norm. And of the limited plays, the Bucs defense was hot…CAR was 1-of-9 on 3rd-downs. Samuel was the main piece during the 17-17 1st-half slugfest. He was playing but not targeted much in the 2nd-half during the onslaught. The run game got ditched, and eventually the Carolina train went off the tracks.
Samuel, with CMC out, is THEE most important skill position player (non-QB) that Carolina uses. Don’t give up on Samuel. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if he took a career high in carries this week – like 7-8+, like he’s almost the starting RB in a split.
2) Antonio Brown (7-69-0/8) is Tom Brady’s favorite throw, and it’s not debatable. Brown put up these solid FF numbers playing 49% of the snaps.
It’s not just the math of it all, but you can see it on tape -- Brady is forcing it with Mike Evans (6-77-1/11) and he’s OK with Chris Godwin (6-92-0/6) as a nice 3rd-wheel option. Where Brady’s heart, where his ying & yang connection is – is with AB. Some of the throws/catches here could only be from a trusted relationship.
Whether or not AB gets more playing time, is debatable. I think Bruce Arians doesn’t want to piss off Evans-Godwin, but he’s going to have to eventually. Brady wants to work with Brown.
-- The loser of the AB uprising might be Gronk (2-51-1/3). Brady has so many things to throw to, Gronk can just stay in to block and let Brady work this great WR-trio.
Gronk is becoming Brady’s TD guy…a TD in four of his last 5 games.
-- Mike Davis (7-32-0, 4-12-0/5) might be wearing down, as I hinted the last week or two. Now, CMC is out again, and Davis is carrying the load. Tough run defense to do anything against, and then he came out as the blowout ensued.
Samuel may split the backfield with Davis more and more, or if Davis goes down…it’s Samuel with Rodney Smith (3-13-0, 1-2-0/1). Smith is a solid hand RB, a poor man’s Mark Ingram, who may matter if Davis is wearing down and CMC gets shelved for the rest of 2020.
-- Ronald Jones (23-192-1, 1-6-0/2) had that sweet 98-yard TD in this game, but minus that he had 22 carries for 94 yards and no TDs. Fine but not his typical workload. They tried to just run it out at the end with their big lead.
I’m a RoJo fan, but I fear this output is a blip/head fake of what to expect next week, and the next week, etc.
-- This version of the TB-DST is the #1 best DST in fantasy, but schedule matters more for DST play.
You could use TB-DST vs. LAR this week, I think it’s OK. Week 12 v. KC is no-go. Then a Week 13 bye. Weeks 11-13 aren’t very fruitful here.
Weeks 14-16 are better, but no cupcakes per se…MIN, at ATL, at DET are not patsies…but TB’s defense is so dominant they will project well against all of them.
Snap Counts of Interest:
43 = Moore
35 = Robby
34 = Samuel
25 = Mike D
09 = Rodney Smith
72 = Godwin
64 = Evans
39 = AB
09 = Miller
47 = RoJo
29 = Fournette
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Saints 27, 49ers 13
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Because it’s 2020, I just watched Jameis Winston ‘lead’ (very loose quotations there) the Saints to a victory over Nick Mullens.
Welcome to the most bizarre season of football in my lifetime.
Not much to report about the game itself here… The 49ers put up a fight for a bit, but you can only go so far with Nick Mullens. The Saints took a 17-10 halftime lead, then Drew Brees got hurt…but the Saints just held on as the 49ers fumbled and muffed punted their way to a two-score loss led in part by 4 turnovers…and mostly key/killer ones.
The Saints rise to (7-2), winners of five in a row…but all those good vibrations are negated by the loss of Drew Brees…maybe more negated by the reality of a Jameis Winston ‘dark winter’ possibility ahead. We’re looking at 2-3 games missed and possibly a couple losses with Brees returning in time to go at Philly then host the Chiefs. The road ahead, without Brees is not easy. The Buccaneers just got some life breathed back into an NFC South title hope. We loosely project the Saints to finish with 10-11 wins and if they get to 11 wins, they will win the NFC South.
The 49ers have had a ‘dark winter’ since September…mounting injuries have all but wiped them out for 2020. They are now (4-6) and on a bye. Before you count them out, if they beat the Rams Week 12 to get to (5-6), getting Mostert-Deebo-maybe Jimmy G.-Sherman, etc., back – they got a shot to sneak into the wild card. We project them falling short with 7-8 wins. They’d have to stay perfectly healthy to pull this off, on top of getting a big win streak going – it’s almost too much to ask. Lose to the Rams Week 12, and it is over.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- So, who will the Saints QB be in Week 11?
Two competing thoughts:
1) Jameis Winston (6-10 for 63 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT) is terrible and looked terrible here in his brief appearance. Jameis…you are no Teddy Bridgewater. My first thought is – it can’t be Winston. He was so bad that Taysom Hill finished out the game late to try and run the ball/control clock and put SF away for sure/good.
2) It’s never Taysom Hill (0-0, 8-45-0). Anytime Brees has gone down…it’s never Taysom. The Taysom as the Saints’ future QB thing, I’m beginning to believe it is a total fraud. Use for a couple gadget plays, sure. Start-to-finish starter at QB…never has happened non-Week 17. They barely let Hill throw passes all year, or last year…and the second Brees goes down here, they go right to Winston. Last year, right to Teddy.
If I had to bet, I’d lean Winston to start Week 11.
Two thoughts from here…
a) Hill is going to take elevated snaps at QB now, in-game, so if he qualifies as a TE in your FF league – he’s as much a TE1 potential as any non-Kelce/Waller.
b) Winston could flop, and Hill play half a game at QB…and then Hill starts the following week by attrition.
I’ve been talking about it for weeks…in this era of TE desperation, Hill was slowly starting to become a legit TE1 hope on increased touches he’s been getting. Week 11 might be the most touches he’ll have in a game in years (non-Week 17 play).
-- So, who will start for the 49ers at QB their next game?
I’m guessing Kyle Shanahan is getting tired of watching Nick Mullens (24-38 for 247 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) flail away, but his heart seems to be with Mullens. However, he may be at a point to give C.J. Beathard a shot to see if it changes their fortune.
Jimmy G. is eligible to return Week 14 at the earliest.
Just noting again…Beathard has some FF potential because he is a really good runner of the ball, and a better passing QB (to me) than Mullens.
-- JaMycal Hasty (3-13-0) went down for the season with an injury in this game, and Jerick McKinnon (18-33-0, 1-13-0/3) failed again…and Mostert-Coleman-Deebo-Wilson slated for return Week 12.
I don’t know that there’s a reason to hold McKinnon in a redraft the next two weeks, if one or more of Mostert-Coleman-Wilson returns.
-- Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill…either will have a negative affect on the Saints-related passing game.
Michael Thomas (2-27-0/7) looked out of sync with Brees and looked 10x more out of sync with Winston. I know if Winston starts, he’ll throw it to Thomas blindly a lot…so Thomas might survive as a WR2
With Taysom Hill…everything declines in volume as Hill will run the ball a lot and not lean on any one receiver.
Jared Cook (0-0-0/2) is in some trouble with Winston but might be as randomly plausible as any non-Kelce/Waller…but in bigger trouble with Hill, when Hill runs heavy and needs a blocking TE to help.
-- The best WR on the field this game…Brandon Aiyuk (7-75-1/14), he’s really become a great rookie WR right under the radar, to a degree, because the 49ers are so boring/ignored with all their injuries and Nick Mullens.
Aiyuk + Deebo are going to be a great 1-2 punch in the future…for whatever QB Kyle Shanahan deals with in 2021. It won’t be Jimmy G., or Mullens, or Beathard. It will likely be a veteran signing/trade and a rookie drafted to develop.
Just a pure guess…not Matt Ryan or Carson Wentz due to their contracts, but I’ll throw a dart and say Gardner Minshew acquired. A baseless guess. The most likely thing is a rookie QB, since they’re all walking into the league and doing just fine right off the bat.
-- Aiyuk was the best WR on the field here, I didn’t say best ‘receiver’ on the field…because that might have been Jordan Reed (5-62-0/6).
This was a spry/quick as I’ve seen Reed in a while. He also was the second-most targeted, 2nd-most productive receiver for SF here – and he made some terrific catches and sweet shiftiness after some of his catches. Very impressed.
I think he’s got a shot to be a strong PPR TE1 ahead. He’s my new favorite TE gamble, along with Taysom.
-- The Saints-DST logged another solid game, but note it was the injured/depleted 49ers and some muffed punts, etc. All good things, but I didn’t necessarily see some shift to greatness with this D. Now, they’ll lose some offense without Brees. The Saints-DST vs. the Falcons two of the next three weeks does not excite me. Week 12 at DEN should be good.
Snap Counts of Interest:
46 = Mk Thomas
34 = Emm Sanders
21 = D Harris
27 = Trautman
21 = Cook
69 = James
68 = Aiyuk
41 = Bourne
37 = Dwelley
31 = Jo Reed
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Vikings 19, Bears 13
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
What an exciting game to watch out at my local neighborhood Buffalo Wild Wings… Me enthusiastically wondering if Kyle Sloter was possibly going into the game late for carted-off Nick Foles was the most exciting thing this game provided to me, but because it’s 2020, and I can’t have nice things, or Diet Dr. Pepper, all I got a Tyler Bray unhappy ending.
What’s really sad is Bray made more money on his first throw of 2020 than I will make all year. I drowned my sorrows in Parmesan Garlic and Jammin’ Jalapeno wings. What I like about the Jammin’ Jalapeno wings is they’re a ‘limited time only’ sauce option at BWW, as marked on their menus, and they’ve been available without fail for at least a decade now…but they’re still marked as a ‘limited time only’. I’m so delighted every time I see it wondering if they are doing that on purpose or no one has caught.
It’s the little things in life that entertain me/drive me crazy.
Two paragraphs about the Buffalo Wild Wings to start this report, and little about the game itself – that tells you what you need to know here.
Game-wise, this might have been the singularly worst game of offensive football I’ve ever witnessed…from a team that has functional, talented offensive players – that being the Chicago Bears. Just when you thought Matt Nagy was the worst offensive mind in the NFL, his offensive coordinator took over playing calling with a ‘hold my beer…’ effort to prove that he was the worst. Mission accomplished. Also, note…Matt Nagy hired this guy, so technically Nagy is still the worst offensive mind in football for hiring the worst offensive mind in football, Bill Lazor.
This may be the game where Matt Nagy got everybody fully ‘turned’ on him now…and embarrassing display on cable television.
The funny irony would be if this was the coach who was hired to take Nagy’s place (he will be available): https://youtu.be/eldavQFLJD8?t=284
Minnesota didn’t play a great game or anything, they just got out of the way and let the Bears repeatedly faceplant and won the game. The best moment of the night was when the Vikings kicked-off to former Viking Cordarrelle Patterson and he ran it back for a TD and Mike Zimmer almost had a spontaneously combusted on his special team’s coach on the sidelines. The Bears’ lone TD was the CP KR TD return.
The Vikings are winners of three in a row, and right back into the playoff picture at (4-5). They really should be (5-4/6-3) but things happened. The schedule ahead could get them to 9 wins, but we see (8-8)…and that might be a final wild card, maybe. There is some hope in Minnesota now. Had the Jags beaten the Packers this week, which they should have, the Vikings could’ve been just two games out of 1st-place with 7 games to go.
The Bears have lost four in-a-row and have sunk to (5-5) and fading fast. They might get to 8 wins, but I’d say more likely 7 and then a big wondering if Nagy gets dumped after the season.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- At first, it looked like Nick Foles’s (15-26 for 106 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) season might be over but news is breaking that the injury may not be as bad as first thought, and there’s a BYE this week (11), so it’s possible Foles is back at the helm. Even if he is, this offense is swirling down the drain fast.
I’d love to see Mitch Trubisky come in to save the day, becoming a runner/thrower that starts making a difference (he’s is undefeated as a starter this season) – but Trubisky is hurt and doesn’t show the heart of great football player, so even if he got in it would be more of the same Nagy-nonsense.
I think there’s a case to be made that Trubisky has a lot of raw talent and it was totally uncoached, or anti-coached away into the terrible QB people perceive today. It will be interesting what team takes a shot on him next year – he’d be perfect for Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan to work on, but the best spot I think is for Sean McDermott to get him and make him a Josh Allen-lite and try to give Mitch a heart transplant. No greater QB miracle has occurred in my history of studying football than the improvement McDermott has been a part of with Josh Allen from 2018 to 2019 to 2020.
If Foles and Trubisky are out, then if you thought this offense looked bad before then wait until you see it led by Tyler Bray.
-- All this QB chaos means two things for me:
1) Allen Robinson (6-43-0/9) is going to have a hard time sustaining a WR1 status…between the offense/the QBs and the weather ahead – in redraft you need to plan for the worst here.
2) I’ll not speak of Darnell Mooney (2-3-0/2) again until Matt Nagy is gone, and I see who the replacement is. His talents are going to waste AND he’ll never get better with Nagy’s rule/staff.
-- Worse than the Bears’ QB situation is their RB situation…
Cordarrelle Patterson (12-30-0, 3-19-0/2) started and was of little impact. We all know CP is talented, so the fact that he can do nothing in this offense is not on him…which means there is no hope ahead.
Lamar Miller (0-0-0, 2-6-0/2) was in the game after Patterson…and was barely used.
When I saw Miller enter after Patterson, I ripped up and tossed my Ryan Nall (1-0-0, 1-18-0/2) lottery tickets. Here’s how stupid Matt Nagy is, as if you needed more evidence…down by a score late in a hurry up/all-pass offense, the former WR and huge playmaker Cordarrelle Patterson is not on the field but Ryan Nall is. Why? Wouldn’t a bubble screen or jet sweep to Patterson be in some kind of order given the playmaker he is…for an offense struggling mightily? Not for Nagy.
Oh, and for some reason the 3rd RB into the game was not Nall…it was Artavis Pierce (3-9-0). Congrats, Lazor-Nagy!!!
David Montgomery (DNP) may actually be a good RB, but it’s Nagy killing him. I have to at least consider that.
The Bears are like the Colts for me, for FF…I don’t want anything to do with any of them. Not the RBs (redraft 2020) or the WRs or the QBs or the TEs.
-- Nothing much to say about the Vikings here. They tried to run the ball a thousand times, per usual, but it was bottled up pretty well…so, when Kirk Cousins had to throw he dealt to Justin Jefferson (8-135-0/10) for another monster FF performance.
We’re used to Jefferson doing well, but we have to also consider here – this was a Bears pass defense that has been shutting down most things. However, Justin Jefferson rolled through/on to a great game. A sign that Jefferson isn’t just having a good targeting/touch count run of production…more that he is really, really good…bordering on great 10 weeks into his rookie season. It’s stunning how good the rookie WRs are of this era.
-- My guy, Eric Wilson had 7 total tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 TFLs, and a PD this game.
He’s now the #7 LB in IDP PPG on the season (FPros scoring).
Since Week 2, Wilson is #4 in IDP PPG…two tackles away from being #2 to leader/Bears LB Roquan Smith (14 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 3 TFLs).
-- Four losses in a row for the Bears, with their defense just not good enough to pull off wins. They are holding offenses down to ‘manageable’ but they’re not providing the fire/the FF scoring you want from your DST (but the CP KR TD return helped).
The Bears-DST is the #11 FF scoring PPG DST in fantasy this season…never bad, but never really great. A bye this week, and then the at Green Bay…not good, especially as this team starts swirling down the drain.
DET, HOU, at MIN, at JAX Weeks 13-16 look favorable but not awesome.
Snap Counts of Interest:
46 = Mooney
45 = ARob
24 = A Miller
25 = CPatt
17 = Nall
06 = A. Pierce
05 = L Miller
59 = Cook
05 = Mattison
57 = Rudolph
46 = Conklin
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Cardinals 32, Bills 30
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
What a game…what an ending.
What has become two of the best ‘good, but not going to win the Super Bowl’ teams in the NFL met here and a shocking Hail Mary ending gave the Cardinals a miracle victory. Buffalo led 23-9 mid-3rd-quarter, but Arizona pulled into the lead with three scores in a 9+ minute span…a 17-point run to take a 26-23 lead.
The teams battled, scoreless, all 4th-quarter until Buffalo drove down the field with what looked like a late-game winning TD, taking a 30-26 lead with 0:34 left, but because it’s 2020…Arizona got to midfield and then flung a Hail Mary pass which DeAndre Hopkins caught in the middle of four defenders for the shocking victory.
It was an entertaining game, to say the least. It was also a showcase of two of the best players in the game right now – Kyler Murray and Josh Allen. Buffalo seemed like the better team all along, but Arizona never folded…and pulled out a shocker. Both of these teams ‘arrived’ in this game. More so Arizona but Buffalo has nothing to be ashamed of here either. Well played game by two talented teams with a storybook finish.
Now, I’m a believer. I’m with Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello, who predicted this Arizona uprising in the summer (with me telling him it was too much to ask of Kliff Kingsbury)…I believe Arizona can win the NFC West. I’ll go one further…this game, this season really, but this game is the tipping point – now, I believe Arizona can win the NFC West, but also go to the Super Bowl. Not ready to say they will…just new believing they can.
Seattle was a mild fraud as the clear top team in the NFC, and now they are falling away with recent losses to the rest of the NFC West. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are very dangerous and clearly beatable. The Saints are good but seriously flawed and minus Drew Brees now. The Packers are clearly beatable, beneficiaries of an easy schedule/weak division pushing them along. I’m not saying Arizona WILL outrun them all, but I am saying I believe for the first time it is now possible they can – their defense continues to play well and Kyler is getting better and better. I could see Arizona winning the West and going to the NFC title game or I could see them stumbling from here and being a wild card and losing 1st-round – but going the distance is now a possibility in my mind.
If the Cardinals can beat Seattle on TNF this week…they have to be the favorites to win the NFC West. If they lose, they are back into a dogfight to the finish. I think they will lose Week 11 being AT Seattle (but hoping they win) but go on to finish (10-6) and be right in the mix with LAR and SEA for the NFC West title. The Week 11 ARI-SEA winner will have a big edge because Seattle has a very easy schedule ahead, and Arizona’s isn’t bad either (the Rams have a tougher road by comparison).
Buffalo falls to (7-3)…seconds away from being (8-2). The sweet AFC East cushion the Bills had just escaped via DeAndre Hopkins as Miami (6-3) now gets to one win behind the Bills in the division. We still project the Bills to win the AFC East without worrying about Week 17 v. Miami.
I’d bet the Bills to go further in the playoffs and more likely to win their division but just like this game – don’t count out Arizona. I no longer am. I think Arizona climbed (and it has been building for weeks) to a next level here (with more steps to go). They’ve gone from a good team that Kyler has to be accounted for, to more ‘expect them to win’ week-to-week. All credit to Kliff Kingsbury and Vance Joseph who I never thought could get this team into this position.
…if the Cardinals fall from here, I will lead the ‘see, I told you so’ brigade – but I don’t think I’ll be dusting that oldie but goodie for use ahead here.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I should talk about Kyler Murray first, but I’m going to talk Josh Allen (32-49 for 284 yards, 2 TDs/2 INT, 7-38-0, 1 TD catch) first…because that is where the FF opportunity lies.
Had the Hail Mary pass gone as they normally do…incomplete, and Buffalo had won the game – it would, or should, be the moment everyone in football celebrated and pushed Josh Allen as the NFL MVP alternative to Patrick Mahomes. Instead, crickets.
Lost in the Hail Mary, which is cool but a fluke play, was the fact that Josh Allen once again led a late game drive down to a good team, needing a score to tie/win and Allen put a laser beam throw in a perfect placement to Stefon Diggs with 0:34 left for what SHOULD have been the game winning score. You know what happened with Arizona’s last drive…which stole the spotlight from Allen.
I mean, watch this throw/play, Allen is doing this all the time in 2020…especially catch the slow-mo replay as the very short video runs: https://youtu.be/CpHp48MuMcs
Allen drifting in the pocket, flatfooted dart in the only place this pass could’ve been to succeed…and Allen has been doing this all season. He’s been the closest thing to Patrick Mahomes as there has been in the NFL, him and Justin Herbert but Allen a touch better.
Where’s the FF-opportunity in this?
Well, Kyler gets all the praise after this game. He’s getting the MVP talk, but Allen just scored about the same amount of points Kyler did in this game (in 6pts per pass TD)…and Allen is a top 5 fantasy QB, and he’d be competing with Kyler’s #1 YTD spot if not for the unseasonable crappy weather games Allen had to play a few weeks ago which brought his FF numbers down a tick. Kyler is the current king of fantasy QBs, but Allen is right up there…but if you tried to trade for them…Kyler is unobtainable, and Allen is very obtainable. Kyler would be valued as the #1 QB in fantasy, even ahead of Mahomes. Allen…may be priced as a top 10 QB type valuation because people think he’s similar to Carson Wentz/they disbelieve. People think, perhaps, he’s on a little Carson Wentz hot streak…but they ‘know’ it won’t last.
I’m just noting…Allen’s greatness is hidden once again…you can get a deal again this week – not that he’s being given away, but people (by and large) still do not believe. I know most of you have Mahomes and/or Kyler, and/or Herbert and/or traded for Allen already off my last five+ weeks of howling about it…but I’m here again to say, there is still a window, because people still do not believe, and Kyler stole the fresh belief that could’ve started here.
The one pause for going too nuts chasing Allen for the rest of 2020, while he’s on a bye – Weeks 12-16 could all be cold, crappy weather events…or just ‘not ideal’ events. The thing that can cap a QB’s upside is frigid weather…and that’s Buffalo in December, but the Bills play at home only once in December…the problem is at DEN and at NE Weeks 15-16 can be just as bad. How it gets overcome some -- is Allen is the Bills best power runner as well.
-- I discussed Allen first, because of the FF-value and continuing the different thought process I’ve had on him. That’s not to take away from Kyler. The Kyler Murray (22-32 for 245 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 11-61-2) report, this week, is growing quite simple…
Kyler is now the king of fantasy QBs.
He might wind up being a higher scoring QB than Lamar Jackson was last year.
Who is laughing now, those of you who moved heaven and earth or used the touch of a finger to select Kyler Murray WAYYY ahead of where you were supposed to in Dynasty Rookie Drafts last year? You still want Josh Jacobs instead?
You know, I’m early mapping out the start of the 2021 College Football Metrics season (can you believe January is coming soon?) and wondering how to price it, what it’s going to look like – and it made me think, the Kyler Murray push we had in 2019…paid for your that subscription and then some, right now. Chase Claypool is paying for some of the 2020 costs.
I put a lot of work into College Football Metrics scouting of players, it is the lifeblood of Dynasty Rookie Draft strategy and the foundation for valuing these players for the NFL seasons for Fantasy and Handicapping, etc. My CFM season is like two full time jobs in one week for all time scouting tape and researching backgrounds/numbers and writing lengthy reports. Your support of CFM -- keeps it and me alive during the ‘offseason’ (there is no offseason in football). This past year with COVID and the unique college season with all the opt-outs…it’s going to be the most challenging scouting season ever. I really need and value your support of CFM. I try to make it more than worth your time and support. You’ll never know, and I’ll never be able to express, just how much your support of CFM means to keeping the FFM train rolling up the uphill tracks…not to mention support of FFM for the actual seasons as they come about.
Your CFM support…it helped us produce a Kyler Murray bumper crop. It wasn’t enough to say ‘I think he’s good’, although it was a split decision on football people for/against him at the time. Just claiming he was ‘good’ wasn’t good enough -- you had to explore, consider just how good and thus how Dynasty-valuable he was. No one valued him like we did. Those that have him in Dynasty because of it – enjoy the fruits of your support and your personal action/decision to go get him. It wasn’t easy to get to him for many, and mocking from league mates occurred for as high as we chased him.
But who’s laughing now?
Every win, every moment like this – it only strengthens Kyler’s Dynasty value because he HAS to have Kliff Kingsbury giving him the LONG leash to do whatever he wants.
However, just to bring us down a notch, note that Lamar Jackson was the cat’s pajamas this time last year…and now look at him. We can never let our guard down.
The difference is…Kyler is actually a good QB/passer and Lamar is not really.
Just to put a bow on it all – I need your support of CFM more than ever in 2021. COVID kicked CFM’s butt when it hit in March-April and we all weren’t sure if the world may have been ending. Your support keeps me safely on the mission fields researching more players than ever in a year where many top guys skipped the college season. We’re going to have to look under every rock for James Robinson’s.
-- The greatness of Josh Allen is rendering the Buffalo Bills backfield totally useless for FF. You know how Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell have never predictably/consistently mattered for KC? Same for Buffalo. Sean McDermott has created a superhero in Josh Allen, and he is putting it all on him.
Devin Singletary (4-15-0, 1-0-0/5) is an RB4/done. He’ll have a few 3-4-5 catch games a season, but little else for FF otherwise.
Zack Moss (7-20-0, 1-0-0/2) is going to be the lead guy, in a sense, because he’s going to be a short yardage specialist.
The Panthers and Saints and Raiders (to name a few) build the offense around a running back. Buffalo, KC, Baltimore, Rams, the Patriots…the running backs are necessary evils you do by committee.
I never thought Josh Allen would get good…or great…or elite, so I believed the Bills would run with Singletary and play good defense. Instead, they are the Chiefs Northeast. My preseason desire for Singletary has blown up in my face. I don’t believe Singletary failed…he looks fine…but the Buffalo offense has shifted because it should.
I say this as a cautionary tale for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, J.K. Dobbins, and Damien Harris – all super talented, but now I’m wondering if they are always going to be talented backup singers to a spotlight stealing lead singer (the QB). That they’ll never fulfill what their talent says it should? The NFL is changing so fast it’s hard to keep up with.
I know this – I’m done with heavy running back valuation for fantasy. Never again. We’ll explore all the logic in the offseason, but the NFL is about to shift even further away from ONE back.
I’m certain of this for 2021, so that means there will be another radical shift out of nowhere and thus no forward passes in 2021 just wishbone run games while I have 17 WRs on my roster.
-- The rise of Kyler as the center of the universe will put pressure on the Cardinals RBs too, and it already has.
Kenyan Drake (16-100-0, 1-9-0/1) rushed for a hundred yards…YIPPIE, that’s so awesome. Except it isn’t because who cares about 11.9 PPR/10.9 non-PPR fantasy points in a week? If the running back gets some work between the 20s, and Kyler does all the TD stuff mostly minus the lead carry RB…then who cares about 100 yard rushing games? Damien Harris rushes for 100+ yards like every week, and J.D. McKissic outscores him, in PPR, every week.
Chase Edmonds (8-56-0, 3-21-0/3) didn’t rush for 100+ yards but scored about the same as Drake because of his pass game work.
The 100-yard rusher with no TD/no pass game guy is DEAD in fantasy.
How many workhorses are left (and not injured) in the NFL that really matter/are effective for FF? Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry…and…and…??
Piss on Joe Mixon and Miles Sanders and others like them. Next year, I’ll be happy with a loaded QB -WR-TE depth chart and a bunch of PPR RBs, and I’ll adjust as we go in-season off waivers to whatever hot RB pops up. Fantasy waivers have been a playground of RBs to use this year.
Why did I sweat over a Jacobs v. Chubb v. Drake v. Mixon v. Sanders late 1st-round pick decision…when I coulda just taken Wayne Gallman and J.D. McKissic?
-- Christian Kirk (4-27-0/6) has a good matchup here, but he fell back to earth. Kirk was hot the last three weeks, but the recent trending was more like this game…3-4-5 catches, 6-7-8 targets, insignificant targets mostly (less than 40 yards two of last 3 games)…but prior games he got open for a few TDs and all seemed FF-great, but then this dud.
Kirk has value as the #2 WR here, but he’s going to have weeks like this…and you just have to roll with it, not always guessing and always a week behind/wrong. Kyler takes most of the goodness on the ground not through the air, unless it’s DeAndre Hopkins.
Buffalo has the better passing game for all WRs, that’s why I’ve been chasing John Brown (6-72-0/8) like a lunatic and if he’s out this week I want Cole Beasley (11-109-1/13). Brown was on his way to another nice FF game, but he got banged up and Beasley rose up in-game.
Josh Allen makes all things great at WR…and suffocates to death the TE and RBs.
Kyler Murray makes himself great, and usually DeAndre Hopkins…and then everything else is random hopefuls, unpredictably, each week.
-- But what about these two defenses? No one cares, right?
Consider the fact that this game was two high functioning offenses/QBs and it was 26-23 with 30+ seconds left. I thought the defenses were pretty great here considering who they were facing and how they shut each other down in the 4th-quarter. Allen had to throw a pass only few humans could in order to take the lead late, and then Kyler boosted his numbers with a fluke Hail Mary. Outside of that, this was a well-played game by both defenses – defenses we should respect on good matchups.
Buffalo-DST will be useful/good Week 13 at SF and Weeks 15-16 at DEN, at NE. Three good spots in 4 games Week’s 13-16. Also, all those games could be cold, bad weather to help.
Arizona-DST is a better unit than Buffalo, to me, at this stage…more talented but not as well coached (because McDermott is maybe the best coach in the league) and no weather aid to help the DST. Weeks 13-16, Arizona is home three games in December.
I like the Cards-DST Week 12 at NE, Week 14 at NYG, Week’s 15-16 at home v. PHI-SF (but in safe dome conditions for offense allowance). From Week 12-16, you got four useful opportunities. Just Week 13 v. the Rams is not as favorable.
Snap Counts of Interest:
38 = Drake
26 = Edmonds
39 = Maxx Williams
35 = Arnold
14 = DDaniels
39 = Moss
34 = Singletary
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Colts 34, Titans 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I cannot believe the Colts won this game…after watching how it started.
I cannot believe the Colts are going to walk away with the AFC South title, but now I’m convinced they are.
The Titans looked like the superior team from the jump…a quick 7-0 lead for the Titans. A 17-13 lead for Tennessee at the half. Then it all started falling apart…shanked punts, blocked punts, missed FGs – the Titans did this to themselves. Mike Vrabel is sinking his 2020 season like Frank Reich did last year by sticking with his failing ex-Patriots kicker too long (last year it was Adam Vinatieri). Tennessee had the better offense and defense for the first half+ of this game, but then special teams melted and it bled into the other aspects…and the blowout was on, but it shouldn't have been.
Late 3rd-quarter, leading 17-13, Tennessee punted from deep in their own territory…a 17-yard shanked punt set up a quick Indy TD and a first time in the game Colts lead 20-17. Next series, the Titans got a punt blocked and returned for a TD…27-17 Indy. Tennessee drove down and set up for a field goal to close it to a one score game and Steven Gostkowski missed it…making him three of his last 8 FG attempts over the last six games.
Tennessee falls to (6-3) and into a tie for the AFC South, of which they just lost the tiebreaker to the Colts here. The Titans might lose at BAL, at IND the next two weeks and their season starts to get flushed down the drain. Beneficiaries of lucky/close wins early in the season – and that luck is starting to turn against them now. We project Tennessee to (9-7) now, which should be good enough to sneak into the playoffs again.
The Colts are technically in first place in the AFC South (6-3), but they do not look that great – just a beneficiary of a weak schedule so far…and then they had this game given to them by Tennessee’s miscues. We see Indy finishing with 9 wins as well but winning the AFC South with that identical record with Tennessee, but owning the tiebreaker over them. The Colts have a better chance to get to 10 wins than the Titans do, right now.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- This Colts backfield, oy vey…
Jonathan Taylor (7-12-0, 2-25-0/2) is a near-death experience now for FF…debatable on -- do drop or hold this week?
Two things on Taylor…
1) He’s the kind of back you feed 15-20+ times and pound away on opponents with. He needs a steady flow of touches, like the guy across the field from him gets. Taylor in 2020 gets treated like if the Dallas Cowboys drafted Ezekiel Elliott and then put him in a three-way RBBC. Like he’d come into the game and get a carry and then instantly run off the field, then back in 3 plays later, then out again, and back-and-forth all game long…never getting into any rhythm. You’d be confused and/or livid watching Derrick Henry or Zeke Elliott or Josh Jacobs, etc., get that treatment.
But Taylor wasn’t a 1st-round pick, so he doesn’t really matter, no one really cares. The way he should be used…he’s getting used the exact opposite. He logs three games worth of energy in one game…there’s the one game he plays on the field, then there’s the two games worth of time he’s sprinting off the field/out of the rotation and then sprinting back on…and back and forth wasting his legs all game.
The way Frank Reich is using him…near useless for Taylor or FF.
2) Current owners of Taylor in Dynasty have to be disgusted. We wasted a top draft pick on this? If you believe in Taylor for the future, not the now, and you didn’t get a chance to rookie draft…the price to acquire him is radically reduced.
A lesson, once again…these Dynasty Rookie Drafts are WAY overvalued. Everyone gives a kidney to get a high draft pick or cries when they don’t have a hot top rookie pick to make…and then these coveted rookies, halfway into their rookie season, we end up hating or are disappointed with most all of them…they cannot live up to our hype so they seem terrible (if you’re the highly vested owner).
Then they pop a year later, and non-owners of a hot rookie missed a window to acquire in their disappointing rookie season because they got scared off/lost the rookie hype on them too.
If you believe in Taylor, now is the time to shop for a bargain…not pay any price to do it -- but make someone bleed, get a deal.
Nyheim Hines (12-70-1, 5-45-1/6) will be the top waiver RB of the week, I can feel it. We all just saw him play well on cable television, so now ‘it’s real’.
May I caution you…Reich is going RBBC every week; you can’t bank on anything with the Colts backfield for FF. The game prior to this, Hines barely touched the ball and Jordan Wilkins (8-28-0, 0-0-0/1) was what everyone wanted. Now, it’s Hines…which will be wrong next week because Taylor will probably spike up and then everyone will believe in him, and then he’ll fail in a follow up…and round and round she goes.
Don’t get into this RBBC hell if you don’t have to.
-- I don’t want any Colts offensive players, but if I had to…I guess Michael Pittman (7-101-0/8) just got my attention. I LOVE Pittman, but I didn’t think he was going to bump up to the #1 guy so fast. Parris Campbell is out. T.Y. Hilton died and went to WR heaven weeks ago. And Marcus Johnson (0-0-0/1), who I thought was the top guy for Rivers…he was benched.
Pittman is the guy, but I don’t want to have anything tied to Philip Rivers. Next week Jaire Alexander will go on Pittman, and everyone will jump off him. The schedule ahead, except Week 12 rematch with TENN looks bad for the Indy #1 WR, assuming it is Pittman now.
-- Maybe I don’t want the Titans #1 WR either?
What the hell was that A.J. Brown (1-21-0/4)? A terrible title for a kid’s Christmas Cartoon and a terrible fantasy football egg at this juncture.
He actually caught his lone pass on the 2nd play of the game…and then a big fat zero the rest of the way. It was so bad, Jonathan Taylor outscored him in PPR and Standard.
What happened?
No clue, but it’s a bit distressing…but I think it’s more Xavier Rhodes (3 tackles, 1 PD) really is back in shutdown mode.
I guess, it’s not a bad time to inquire about AJB in a trade? Maybe the current owner is furious? Mostly, people seem to be of the mindset this bad week was just a blip. However, just note…two out of AJB’s last 3 games, he’s been under 25 yards receiving. He’s making one big play most weeks to save his FF scoring…but his real on-field work has been erratic, and teams are putting more coverage on him and he’s not a good enough receiver, nor is this passing game so high powered, to bust through that.
BAL and IND the next two weeks, he may get shut down two more times. Actually, I’ll take a rain check on that ‘buy low’ statement. I’ll pass for the rest of 2020.
-- Speaking of things starting to fade off a little bit…Ryan Tannehill (15-27 for 147 yards, 1 TD/0 INT).
Tanny has been under 240 yards passing in five of his last 6 games…and under 240 yards in four-straight, and he’s been under 200 yards passing back-to-back weeks. When the Titans face a tough pass defense, the results are ‘low’ volume. And he’s facing BAL-IND the next two weeks. Not good.
The schedule is more favorable Week 13 on.
-- Jonnu Smith (2-14-0/6, 1-1-1) is not helping the Tennessee pass game cause…or the pass game is not helping Jonnu, one or the other.
Had Jonnu not gotten that jet sweep TD run…it would have been FIVE fantasy duds in a row. The past five games, Jonnu has 1-1-2-2-2 for catches in games and less than 35 yards in all five games. Had he not run for that TD here, you’d be dropping him in regular redraft this week.
Smith got decent target volume in this game, finally, but he was rarely/never open. Indy is stout vs. the TE. Jonnu has BAL-IND the next two weeks, which is not great either.
-- Rodrigo Blankenship (2/2 FGs, 4/4 XPs) has a sweet next five games of ‘conditions’ to kick in…
Week 11 = home/dome
Week 12 = home/dome
Week 13 = at HOU/dome
Week 14 = at LV/dome
Week 15 = home/dome
Then a bad Week 16…at Pittsburgh.
-- I know the Titans’ DST schedule looks decent ahead, kinda-sorta…but I am joining the ‘this Titans defense sucks’ crowd. Even though there is hope with the Desmond King trade and Adoree Jackson should be back Week 11. Two problems…
Jadeveon Clowney (4 tackles, 1 TFL) is an overrated waste of space…he plays at 50% effort most of the time and has a moment here and there. He’s not a menace, he’s actually a liability.
Even worse than Clowney, and I did not pick up on it until this re-watch, but I saw something live watch that I made note of…then watched for it on the re-watch and saw it, I think.
The ‘it’ is that SAF Kenny Vaccaro (8 tackles) is mailing it in. He’s playing like Mark Barron did for the Steelers last year -- a little delayed/late to the draw, on purpose, on things to stay out of the fray. Giving up early (half speed running) or not even trying to chase after plays gone past him. Purposefully trying to get caught up into coverage so he doesn’t ‘notice’ a ballcarrier running nearby, so he doesn’t have to really pursue or is way behind the play. When he is near a play, he tackles like he’s gently putting a baby to sleep…a lot of arm tackling or grab and hold to fall to the ground with them – no real full speed blasts.
Now, I know why the Titans defense is dying…they have at least two players on the field 70%+ of the snaps who could care less/aren’t making extra effort.
-- IND SAF Khari Willis (8 tackles) is on fire lately…
3.4 total tackles per game per game his first 5 games, 8.5 total tackles per game his last 4 games. Nothing I see has changed, and he’s started every game this season…just tackling a lot lately. He doesn’t stand out on tape one way or the other, but the numbers are nice of late.
Snap Counts of Interest…
38 = D Henry
17 = McNichols
09 = Foreman
57 = Pittman
47 = Pascal
47 = Hilton
18 = Marcus Johnson
39 = Hines
17 = Taylor
14 = Wilkins
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Falcons 34, Broncos 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This wasn’t as close as the one score game it ended up. The Falcons punished the Broncos. It was 20-3 ATL at the half. 27-6 after three quarters. 34-13 with 9+ minutes left. The Broncos scored some garbage in the hurry up to make it closer than it was. The Broncos were missing two starting corners, which crippled them and Atlanta took advantage.
Denver had to win this game…and they failed miserably. A win would have put the Broncos (4-4) and kept wild card talk alive for weeks. Now, they’re pretty much done. They were anyway, but at least hope is fun for a while into the season. All hope is about gone in Denver.
Atlanta should be winners of their last four games, but they have won three of the four to crawl back into a long shot playoff discussion. They have played good+ ball under interim HC Raheem Morris. Their season comes down to Weeks 11-13.
Let’s play pretend…
Assuming the Saints win this week (over SF), they’ll be (7-2) and the Falcons are currently (3-6) and on a BYE. Atlanta plays NO twice (Weeks 11 and 13) ahead, and let’s say they sweep the Saints, as well as beat the Raiders in-between, let’s be far-fetched, then Atlanta would get to (6-6) with the Saints at (7-5) or (8-4) and the Falcons owning a tiebreaker over the Saints. Suddenly, the Falcons would be in the wild card and still in the divisional race.
It’s all too much of a long shot, but the table is set…if Brees gets hurt or whatever gives them some long shot hope – the Falcons at least have a path of dominos to knock down to get into the expanded playoff hunt. I think their schedule is the hardest of any NFL team Week 11 on, so we project Atlanta to win 5-6 games tops.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Re-watching this game…I just can’t.
I can’t stand Drew Lock (25-48 for 313 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 7-47-1). I can’t use him in good conscious for FF this week. He’s so bad.
Sure, he had some numbers here…but it was garbage-time, which I’ll take, but he’s so bad I don’t know if you can be assured of good garbage-time with him. He’s so inaccurate and so just forcing things where there is no reason to force too. The Broncos are going nowhere with him, nor our fantasy teams…but this week with so many QBs in question or on bye, you may have to walk this lonely road.
-- Tim Patrick (4-29-1/9) is Lock’s best WR weapon, but look at the numbers – it’s indicative of their problem all year…just forced, low probability connection throws you hope Patrick makes a great play/catch on. Patrick is a flyer Flex option this week. And then the schedule is ugly the next three weeks/ROS and you will never use him.
Jerry Jeudy (7-125-1/14) had his best game…still just a 50% connection rate this game, against one of the worst secondaries of the 2020 season. It can work against bad coverage, but the schedule isn’t kind ahead.
K.J. Hamler (6-75-0/10) has a little window to maybe produce as a Flex flyer in all this…with attention to the outside WRs, Lock can play some pitch and catch in deficits/garbage time ahead. This week v. LV and Lamarcus Joyner is a great opportunity for Hamler to be the best Broncos FF WR option.
I’d love to play Noah Fant (3-34-0/3) with extreme confidence, but he is not 100%. He had a sweet catch and run 30+ yard play right off the bat but got hit low and limped off right away. He played the rest of the way but was more window dressing than weapon…I think because he’s lost his wheels some due to the injuries, for the moment. He’s not fully 100%. Still, if you don’t have Kelce-Waller…what better option do you have than the talented Fant?
-- The Broncos’ RBs did nothing in this game, but you have to note the Falcons are the #7 run defense (by yards per game allowed) in 2020. They’re pretty strong against the run, and it helps that teams just throw all over them as the alternative.
It will be interesting to see if they hold Alvin Kamara down in Weeks 11 and 13…or whether the Falcons just get exposed by the AK experience. Atlanta has held down RBs more than not…but more on the rushing side, not the pass game side.
-- You hate Todd Gurley (19-53-1, 2-2-0/2), I hate Todd Gurley…he’s boring and not anything like he used to be. However, we need to respect him. In this era where every RB sucks/is in some kind of weird RBBC/hot hand or hurt…Gurley has played every game and is the #12 RB in PPR PPG (5 or more games played) this season. An RB1.
Gurley is ALWAYS the lead and is always finding the end zone with his boring rushing totals. That’s better than boring rushing totals and no TDs like most all other RBs.
Only Dalvin Cook (12) has more rushing TDs this season than Gurley (9).
-- With Calvin Ridley out, Olamide Zaccheaus (4-103-1/6) had maybe his best game of his career…not ‘maybe’, he did.
He had a one-handed catch for a big 1st-down conversion early. Soon after, a bomb 51-yard TD, a little later almost another 50+ yard TD but he got tripped up by his shoestrings for just a 40+ yard gain.
It was his best game as a pro, but actually we could say it was his best half ever. All his damage came in the 1st-half, then Matt Ryan inexplicably went to sleep on it. Zaccheaus gives the Falcons more firepower but Matt Ryan is constantly looking for Julio or Calvin and everyone else is a random event.
-- Matt Ryan is looking more for Hayden Hurst (7-62-1/6), as we’ve been noting for several weeks.
On the season, Hurst is now the #7 PPR PPG TE scorer in fantasy.
Since Week 6, Hurst is #4 in PPR PPG among TEs…just behind George Kittle (who is now gone)…and Just ahead of Gronk and Waller.
-- Foye Oluokun (10 tackles, 1.0 sack, 1 TFL,1 PD) is always doing something to get our IDP attention. Not only 10 tackles here, but 4 QB hits…his first 4 of the year, as Morris unleashed him that way this game. A new wrinkle…which led to his first sack of the season.
Since Week 2, Oluokun is the #8 DB in PPG among LBs this season.
The Falcons-DST has really been solid under Raheem Morris, but you cannot use them for FF at all the ROS…they face a murder’s row of QBs/offenses the rest of the way: Brees, Carr, Brees, Herbert, Brady, Mahomes, Brady.
Snap Counts of Interest:
44 = Gurley
19 = Br Hill
63 = Julio
52 = Zaccheaus
44 = Gordon
28 = Lindsay
57 = Fant
15 = Albert O. (ACL/done)
