DFS Shark Tank Week 4: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments
**Scheduling conflicts prevented a full chat format this week, but Andy DFS has some notes to pass along for this week…
The usual intro:
I (RC) am going to play one DFS lineup in a $1M (min.) contest each week to try and take a dart throw at the big money to fund three things: (1) Myself, (2) FFM, (3) my favorite charity.
The odds of hitting on one entry in a giant pool is near impossible…but that’s the fun of it, the lottery dream of it.
My plan to make a lineup is going to be the ‘fun’ here. I, myself, do not functionally play DFS myself…I get submerged in Fantasy and scouting and questions and shows and writing, etc., all day every day. I’m not an expert in the salary and stack aspects, etc., so I’m going to do the smart thing -- lean on two people who are more expert in it than I.
There will be five inputs to make my FF lineup for the million (or bust)…
1) FFM’s Ross Jacobs, who is taking a deeper dive into the world of DFS this year.
2) Andrew Duhan…known to us as ‘Andrew DFS’…one of the most expert DFS sources that I know.
3) My wife, who knows nothing about football, is going to make one random pick at a position (probably like DST…or from a group of top options of the other positions.
4) I will pick one favorite play/player.
5) I will let Advanced Sports Logic’s ‘DFS Optimizer’, which uses FFM projections correlated to the salary and instantly/AI’s the best spends to fill out as many positions (or all positions) as needed. More info on the program and subscribing to the DFS Optimizer on the ‘Optimizer’ tab on the FFM homepage.
But I will begin each week by consulting with my two experts, who I’ve asked to pitch four concepts…
1) Their best ‘stack’ play, and why.
2) Their best mid-range salary player I should have in my lineup.
3) Their best cheapo play I should have in my lineup construction.
4) The bigger name/salary player I should avoid -- for either game logic or DFS ‘ownership %’ logic (and we’ll explain what that means).
The two DFS experts are going to pitch me (a la a Shark Tank type pitch) their concepts Saturday night on a group chat, which will be posted in full below -- so you can see their picks/plays and logic to consider for your own lineup constructions in DFS. I don’t know who they are gonna pitch until they pitch it…and I’ll react to it, and we’ll group discuss it. They also don’t know who the other might pitch -- they may end up with the same exact concept/player…they won’t know until the chat starts.
We haven’t practiced this ahead, I just laid out the generic concept and we’re about to see where it goes. Forgive any typos…and good luck with your DFS plays this week!
QB Stack of the week
– The most popular game to stack will be the Buffalo and Baltimore showdown which has the highest OU of the main-slate. While both QBs got off to a hot start, their respective prices will exceed D$8,000 with a high ownership percentage. I’m going to fade both quarterbacks and go with GB QB Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers’ modest salary (D$6,300) and low ownership projection (<2%) makes Rodgers a clever play in Week 4. Rodgers hasn’t thrown for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns since Week 13 last year, which was his famous “I STILL OWN YOU” game against the Bears. I believe he has a good chance of exceeding both categories this week against a Patriots team who will struggle to put up much of a fight without their starting QB against a ferocious Packers defense.
There is a good chance that this game can have a run-heavy script for the Packers offense; however, I think Rodgers will take advantage of the opportunity to fill up the stat sheet and silence media critics who think he has lost a step. I’m pairing Rodgers with TE Rob Tonyan (D$3,500; <5%) and WR Allen Lazard (D$6,200; <1%); both have history/trust with their QB and have seen their usage/targets increase steadily the past two weeks.
Best Mid-Range Play
– Commanders WR Curtis Samuel (D$5,700; <10%) is still not getting the love he deserves from the mainstream media / DFS players. He’s averaging 10 targets in the passing game and more than a TD through the first three weeks. Samuel has been in my line-up for the past three weeks and I have no intention of breaking that trend until his price increases or ownership projections rise significantly.
Pairing Samuel with either Dallas WR CeeDee Lamb or WR Noah Brown is a promising non-QB stack for Week 4.
Best Cheap Play
– While everybody is focusing on Lions WR Josh Reynolds, TE T.J Hockenson and RB Jamaal Williams, I’m going to go in a different direction with this game and use Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny (D$4,900; <10%) in my line-up.
The injury to Seahawks RBs Travis Homer may result in elevated usage for Penny who gashed the Falcons Defense in the first half last week and is averaging 4.4 yards per carry on the season. The Seahawks moved off the run game in the second half last week which could be a reason why they didn’t beat the Falcons. Let’s also not forget that Penny was one of the hottest RBs to finish last season where he averaged 7 yards per carry, 134.2 rushing yards, and 1.2 TDs in the last five games last season (one of which was against the Lions).
The Lions are down their top WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and RB D’Andre Swift along with WR D.J. Chark. Seattle may control this game which could dictate a run-heavy script against a Lions Defense which hasn’t had much success covering the run.
Chalk play to avoid
– For the past two weeks I’ve been picking on TB RB Leonard Fournette. Too bad his game is not in the mainslate this week; just kidding, I think he’ll have a good game against KC this week.
My Week 4 player to avoid is LV RB Josh Jacobs (D$5,500; 20%+) who faces a tough Broncos Defense this week. This should be a low scoring game as both offenses have performed worse than anticipated since the season started.
