Scouting NFL preseason game tape for Dynasty/Fantasy Football and handicapping purposes...
Game overview:
It is very important to understand the context of this game/matchup for a number of scouting things to make sense. And it’s also important to know the context of this particular game -- because the mainstream will have ZERO context for this event...it’s one of their constant fatal flaws in football analysis and flaws in like the PFF data/metrics and others like it. And that flaw is -- there is no context/consideration for the quality (or lack thereof) for the opponent.
The Bears ran a lot of their 1st-team offense and defense for a few series in this game...the Bears 1st-team had to go five series because they were flopping and flailing around with the Bengals all-to-be-cut 3rd-string group. STOP and drink that last sentence in for a moment. It is thee major piece of data to interpret this game by. There were a few 2nd-teamers for Cincy here and there that played a series or two, but the Bengals basically put out a team of ‘good luck in your future endeavors in a week or two’ to face the Bears 1st-team – and the Bears 1st-team really couldn’t handle them the way you think they should. And when that Concy D had a few 2nd-teamers in, Chicago couldn’t move the ball. When the less-than-a-handful of 2nd-teamers left, and it was down to the 3rd+ team defense...then the Bears hit a play or two, but still mostly scuffled. It was embarrassing from the Bears perspective, but...
It wasn’t embarrassing to the typical football analysts or to the typical ‘blind’ fans. To the NFL cult (their highly paid hype analysts/priests and pastors...and their fawning fans/flock that gobble it all up), this game was more evidence of the greatness of Caleb Williams and the greatness of the emerging Bears. And that’s good that they do think this -- for the FFM cult...
Post-game/next day highlights and analysis will have all the analysts who have to work the preseason weekends heaping praise over Caleb Williams, as they show you his two pretty plays from this game over-and-over, and don’t show you his near double-digit ‘problem’ plays. They are conning themselves and their audience. And it’s not on purpose; it’s not malicious...it’s not that they know better and are lying to us...it’s that mainstream (and trickling down to the no name) football analysis/things are a religious cult/belief system based on ‘feelings’ and being part of the ‘group’(think)...it is not a science. THEY (the analysts) really believe what they are telling you because they don’t know any better. I was watching this game on NFL+, and they gave us the home Bears game call – and I was about to throw up from listening to those two shills/TV analysts’ carnival barking...more so they barking like seals. Every move Caleb made was incredible and literally took their breath away...every mistake was excused or downplayed/ignored...and when Caleb had a good-looking play (after several dud/concerns), they both had mutual/synchronized orgasms on live TV. It was disgusting.
I’m sure they had the same exact reactions and words for everything Justin Fields did in his rookie preseason.
BUT as egregious as it was/is...it’s also ‘money’...for us...because I’m going to tell you the truth, and the truth will not only set you free...but it can make you some $$$. More on that in the next sections.
As for this game overview/outcome itself...
Caleb and the Bears 1st-team played five series and scuffled with basically a UFL equivalent team, and eventually they eked out a 10-0 lead. The Bears 2nd-team came out to play after the half and crushed the Bengals 3rd/4th/5th-string...I think I might take the Bears 2nd-team offense over the 1st, but we’ll get to that. 10-3 at the half in favor of Chicago...turned 27-3 with the Bears 3rd+ string offense holding off scoring another TD on the Bengals defense consisting of future construction workers and nightclub bouncers, mercifully, at the end (had goal to go with 2 min. left and just took knees).
The Bengals management didn’t even try in this game. The Bears did try...A LOT...and won 27-3, but considering the mismatch it was kind of a disappointing 27-3 win...like when an SEC team beats an FCS team by scuffling early but eventually winning 27-3...and the fans murmur and call into local radio shows to complain about it afterwards because they were supposed to win by 50+ and things would be so much better if they had a different coach and coordinators.
But the mainstream will see this as a big-time quality win for the Bears and a step forward for Caleb.
We do not see it that way...at all.
Let’s talk about how you can profit from it for Fantasy and Betting in SUBSCRIBER EXTRA NOTES version of this game report...they will be at the very end of this report.
Scouting Notes from the game:
-- I took detailed notes, but I don’t want to go too deep into detail of each throw. Let’s keep it simple here. I don’t want to go into detail on all the terrible throws Williams made here to begin the game/to pile on....nor do I want to argue too deep about the nuances or luck of his good plays here given the context of the defense he was facing. Let’s keep it simple.
After two preseason game viewings and studying Caleb’s college work in depth...
I would say, scouting-wise, that Caleb Williams is an ‘A’ grade passer...when he is rolling out to his right, and doing so when the play goes off script, and to the right, from him scrambling from the pocket. He’s really good scrambling for his life and finding something to throw to. He has a gift there most QBs do not have the ability to get to. On a purposeful rollout to the right...he’s a ‘B/C’ grade passer.
I would say, scouting-wise, that Caleb Williams is a ‘D’ grade, or worse passer from the pocket when there’s any pressure at all. He’s a ‘B/C’ grade in the pocket quick throwing with no pressure – because he has a terrific arm and release when everything is right/clean and quick.
The problem for Caleb is – he cannot survive in the NFL as a franchise QB just scrambling by design...you can’t design it. Just ask Justin Fields. The coaches roll Caleb out to the right as often as they can, to help his situation – but NFL defensive coordinators will figure that out in 2-3-4 games into the season and will start attacking him from his right. They’re gonna make him play in the pocket (D grade) and rolling to his left (C/D grade). Every QB that I’ve ever seen with that had this issue and the team tried to roll him out to the right because he was a mess in the pocket – it never works, for long.
It's like a great homerun hitter in baseball’s minor leagues who fails in the majors after a hot debut week or two – because if you throw them a fastball out over the plate, they hit over .300+ with a huge slugging percentage...but if you throw them off speed movement pitches off the plate, they chase it and whiff at a high rate and hit less than .200. So, the opposing pitchers mostly throw him off-speed movement pitches and ruin his career...but occasionally this hitter gets a fastball and crushes it out of the park. People tend to remember the pretty homeruns and they fall in love with the player, at first...and the coaches/management thinks they can teach him to lay off the tricky pitches he fails with at a high rate and just be the fastball hitter guy all the time. It doesn’t work that way.
Williams is ‘scared’ in the pocket...because he can’t ‘see it’...and I can see that he can’t see. I’ve studied QB tape and results for a living for 15 years now. I can see it. Caleb freezes up in pocket...he holds the ball too long...he taps the ball several times before he either throws wild or takes off running. He is the homerun hitter who is going to chase the slider off the plate all the time and the curve is going to lock them up – because they are looking for fastballs to crush...fastballs that rarely come.
Caleb displayed his great scrambling skills in this game – his three big plays were all broken play events and desperate scramble in circles, which worked nice against the Bengals to-be-cut DLs...but if he were facing the Bengals starting D-Line, it would probably be a different story.
And all this was what I saw with Caleb on his college tape. And you could see it statistically with his output facing bottom tier PAC-12 defenses versus when he faced more legit top 20-40 CFB defenses.
I think to myself, after watching preseason Caleb – I’ll bet he’s a helluva 7-on-7 QB...and pretty good 11-on-11 when defenses can’t get hit QB. That’s the NFL’s fatal flaw...they put a ton of stock into how a QB looks in situations that are not relevant to real football games. The Bears got suckered in by non-contact versions of their desired QB...just like the Panthers did last year.
Caleb isn’t as bad as Bryce Young...I’d say he’s differently bad. Young has zero physical tools for the NFL...he’s gonna be done as a QB in the league within 3-5 or so years (like Mac Jones). Williams has very good physical tools...great arm, sturdy frame, can move around well...but he cannot operate from the pocket and likely never will be able to. He reminds me of Jameis Winston, or even more so like a taller Johnny Manziel...one play looks competent (and occasionally ‘cool’), the next play/s are a meltdown from the pocket...and Jameis never got better because it’s almost impossible to fix major pocket flaws with any QB, but especially one that’s a #1 pick/well-paid guy who has been a pampered star their whole life playing their style. If they could’ve been great pocket passers...they would already be showing signs of it...they would’ve gravitated to it and would’ve stayed in the pocket. Caleb wants OUT of the pocket...and that will not survive or thrive in the NFL for long. BUT it will have some cool looking plays...especially against B-teams in the preseason.
Let’s look at how this all translates for Fantasy opportunity with Caleb in the SUBSCRIBER EXTRA NOTES...
-- After the Bears 1st-team scuffled around, Tyson Bagent (7-8 for 87 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) and the 2nd-team came in and settled everything down and led two scoring drives. Bagent is a talented prospect...he’s getting better as he goes.
Bagent is probably going to be the better NFL QB in 1-2-3 years over Caleb Williams...Bagent is more of a classic NFL QB – but let the next Bears regime figure that out. Oh boy...are there problems headed Chicago’s way...and the funny/sad part is – they think they are in great shape right now. I listened to the GM talk to the trained seals during this game. The home announcers were going bonkers, and GM was confidentially above-it-all...they think/KNOW they’ve got a great contender for 2024.
Don’t lose track of Bagent in deep roster Dynasty leagues. He’s gonna matter someday...and is one hit on Caleb away from seeing time in 2024.
-- The Bengals, obviously, didn’t have the same firepower or ‘names’ going at QB vs. the Bears here, but considering the context...these 3rd/4th-string QBs working with soon-to-be-cut WRs, OLs and RBs didn’t do too bad vs. the Bears 1st/2nd/3rd-team defenses.
Logan Woodside (17-25 for 132 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs) was way overmatched against the 1st-team Bears D, but really held in there OK given the setup.
Rookie UDFA Rocky Lombardi (4-8 for 33 yards, 0 TD/0 INT), quite the football name, didn’t embarrass himself here either.
Neither are on any Dynasty watch lists yet. I just thought it worthy to note – that the Bengals sent-to-die 3rd+ string unit on offense was not totally bad against the Bears mostly 1st-team defense – not a great sign for the Bears D.
-- Bears RB report...
Khalil Herbert (5-31-0) started with D’Andre Swift out...Roschon Johnson was also out. Herbert will likely be kept as a cheap #3 RB, unless some team ponies up too much for him in a trade.
Travis Homer (4-3-0, 0-0-0/1) did not look like a viable #3 if they did move Hebert.
BUT...
UDFA rookie Ian Wheeler (2-4-0, 2-14-0/2) might help a Herbert trade decision. The rookie is showing he belongs. He’s probably going to be cut and stashed on the practice squad, but he’s showing a pulse for the NFL.
-- Bears WR report...
The vaunted starting trio of Bears WRs had one catch on 4 targets...but the one was that nice/somewhat desperate heave bomb from Caleb to Rome Odunze (1-45-0/2).
Two game appearances for Caleb and the WR trio, and I have seen like one pass to one of those WRs on purpose – because Caleb is not a pocket passing NFL QB who reads defenses and picks them apart with savvy timing throwing. Everything successful in the passing game for Caleb is scramble and scatterbrained off-script throws and throwing to whomever is in front of his face at the time.
I don’t want any of these WRs for FF 2024 based on their ADPs with the Caleb hype. Let’s dive more into ‘what to do’ about these WRs for Dynasty/Fantasy in the SUBSCRIBER EXTRA NOTES...
-- Another game...another round of evidence that Gerald Everett (2-10-0/4) is the main TE look here and not Cole Kmet (1-9-0/1). I’ve officially moved Everett ahead of Kmet in our 2024 PPR rankings.
-- Bengals WR report...
While the Bears trotted out their uber-expensive trio of WRs...the Bengals countered with a collection of UFL hopefuls and rookie Jermaine Burton (1-19-0/1).
The fact that Burton is playing with this group for the second time this preseason...it means he is not starting for the Bengals this season. Not even close. It’s going to be Trenton Irwin and Andrei Iosivas for the #3 role, of which they will likely split it some but really lean to Iosivas as the season wears on...and maybe right away. He’s the real talent that will give Cincy a better WR trio (Chase-Tee-Iosivas) than Chicago’s (Allen-Moore-Odunze).
-- IDP Notes...
UDFA rookie ILB Maema Njongmeta (8 tackles, 1 TFL) had another nice game...he’s trying to force his way onto the 53-man roster. He keeps moving up in our DRD top 300 rankings.
Bears CB Kyler Gordon (4 tackles, 1 sacks, 2 TFLs) was blitzing the poor 3rd-team offense of Cincy early on and had a couple big hits on the Bengals. It was almost like it was unfair he was in the game and taking advantage of the weakened Bengals.
Chicago EDGE Daniel Hardy (4 tackles, 1 sacks, 2 TFLs) now has 2.5 sacks this preseason...he’s forcing his way onto the Bears 53-man roster as well. Hardy sports a 6.71 three-cone with a 40” vertical...the guy’s got potential.
I took it as an insult, if any non-rookie played in this game for Cincy...because they held out about every main guy they have. So, when I saw Jordan Battle (2 tackles) in this game...I took it as ‘a sign’ of his status, and it’s not good. Also, Myles Murphy (no stats) is in these preseason games way too long to make me think he’s finally ‘got it’.
