Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items to start the days with.
1/8 THU
(5:58amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
NFC Playoff Predictions (will post this morningET). AFC tomorrow.
Game Reports today...as many as we can get out today and the rest of the week.
Wild Card Week projections update between 6-9pmET
FFM News & Notes during the day as I get them.
Anything else that pops up, and any early betting I might see.
== News & Notes ==
-- Wow...this could be the story of the week/offseason (as the NFL tries to bury it?)...
https://x.com/living_energy/status/2008604095188529215?s=43
-- Here we go again with Rashee...
https://x.com/nfl_dovkleiman/status/2009031809133416733?s=43
-- HEADLINE: John Harbaugh fired by the Baltimore Ravens.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports the Ravens are looking for a head coach to “invigorate” QB Lamar Jackson.
A mild shocker...but I get it.
A lot of media critique on this is ‘oh my, the Ravens are usually so stable and judicious’ and ‘How could they do this to their long-time successful head coach?’. I think it’s the Ravens patience and prowess and vision that led them here -- I think they made the smart move.
It was time.
The current Ravens could only go so far with John Harbaugh...and they did. The past was great, and Harbaugh deserves a round of applause and a gold watch...but I think the Ravens owner saw what I am seeing -- the era of the Harbaugh-type coaches is coming to an end. Best to rip the band-Aid off now. When you don’t see the current coach as ‘your future’, then make the change. It’s not like these coaches are getting fired and hitting the streets with no way to feed their families. The Ravens made an executive decision...for their future, and they want to get to that new future ASAP.
All the new teams that chase Harbaugh to be their coach are chasing a ‘resume’ from the past...these teams don’t ‘get’ the future. It’s the same mindset as to the Patriots hanging on to Bill Belichick too long...once the Pats made their change, there were some teams interviewing him for their openings. Desperate teams with just-fired head coaches -- some of them, the poorly run ones...they want to get in on ‘the past’ hoping it is the future. The past is the past, and Belichick has become a joke. There’s no guarantee a fresh, baby-faced assistant will work either...but the retreads are not the future. It’s not easy to tear down the old and rebuild a Dynasty team or an NFL franchise.
Harbaugh is a good soldier...a good employee...a decorated coach. He will be in demand from the teams who think ‘they are close’. Of all the retreads just fired, Harbaugh has the best resume. The NFL is changing so fast...it includes changes in the way coaches act, and their mindset with the players, and the connections they have for building a staff. Harbaugh is a thing of the past. He will have a staff that is from ‘the past’. Him and his staff will probably be ‘OK’ at managing a team...but they aren’t gonna be Avant Garde trailblazers or big, sustained ‘winners’. Just ask yourself...in all Harbaugh’s successful years -- where is his ‘tree’? Where are all the great Harbaugh hires? There are none. Some of Harbaugh’s semi-successful coaches just up and left and quietly went to other teams without fanfare...Harbaugh’s assistants didn’t get poached the past 5+ years. Sean McVay loses his entire staff about every 1-2 years...and he replaces them all, and 1-2 years later they all start getting hired away. Harbaugh has none of that...and that’s a symptom of the Harbaugh problem.
Teams that are stuck in the past, run by GMs/Presidents stuck in the past...Harbaugh will be a crowning jewel hire. The team that hires Harbaugh -- the GM will get a huge pat on the back from the media and fans...and it will also be the GM signing his death warrant (for employment) in the near future...and the temporary, continued death warrant of their franchise.
Harbaugh won’t be a disaster, he’ll just not be great...and his new team will move sideways or down over time...maybe he has a blip season early on with the fresh change if the roster is right. Eventually, probably quicker-than-not, Harbaugh’s new gig will end poorly, sadly.
Harbaugh is the safe hire for relic owners and under-pressure GMs. So NYG, ARI and TEN are likely the leaders in the clubhouse. He won’t go to LV, because Tom Brady hates him...and Brady just got burned by his same type of hire with Pete Carroll...a ‘years to late’ hire.
Credit to Baltimore for stepping up and making a change more proactive than sitting back and watching the slow slide to irrelevance keep taking place.
-- Speaking of the Raiders disaster...
https://www.raidersbeat.com/report-describes-nepotism-in-raiders-building/
Tom Brady had to allow this to happen...he OK’d Pete Carroll. Brady is not getting the criticism he should for all this mess in Las Vegas.
I wish I could get Ben Johnson to tell me what he saw to run away from going to the Raiders last offseason.
Old school NFL head coaches, recently fired after being in an organization a long time...they then con their way back into the game to get one more fat paycheck. In their next organization, they’re gonna not work as hard as they used to (they already worked hard and made a career and got fired in the end...they will not let that happen again, they will not sell their soul and work 20 hours a day this time) and they’re also gonna use the new gig to hire their family and friends...like what Pete Carroll just did. The Belichick’s and Carroll’s and so many others do the same thing. Mike McCarthy will, and so on. I would not hire these types of out-of-date, relics of the past era head coaches and let them just peacefully graze off my land. As a GM or Owner, if I had a head coach who hired one of their kids to do anything, I would fire them for it.
-- HEADLINE: NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports the Lions “have started off their OC search” with Commanders quarterbacks coach David Blough.
This makes a ton of sense. Blough knows the system from being a QB under Ben Johnson in Detroit for a couple of years. Campbell respects him. Campbell can control him. Campbell can demand he try to duplicate the Ben Johnson offensive outputs/style. The only thing is, maybe Ben Johnson wants him to replace some of his lost staff...we’ll see.
-- Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles said he will remain the team’s head coach for 2026.
More of the same coming from Tampa. TB made the opposite decision of what Baltimore just did. Tampa is going as far as their O-Line and Baker takes them. The rest of the time/things Bowles can just blow his whistle and call for calisthenics and conduct boring, uninspired press conferences or whatever.
When Tampa Bay let Dave Canales and Liam Coen go away and retained Bowles instead...they cost their franchise the next decade of success potentially. What a shame. If Tampa did 1-2 years ago, what the Ravens are doing now...the Bucs would be in a way better future.
-- Here are some very interesting Ryan Fitzpatrick (and hidden Maxx Crosby) takes on the Brian Flores problem...
These ex-Defensive Coordinators are not the way NFL teams should go for a head coach, but Tom Brady has no idea what he is doing...he doesn’t have the contacts built nor the time to dedicate to building a pipeline of great young coaches.
What will be most important to Brady now is (my guess) -- loyalty. He got burned by Ben Johnson and then by Pete Carroll. Safest thing to do when your whole life is not ‘this’ (manically working in NFL organizational management) and you have no real coaching ‘contacts’ and ‘prospects’ built up you’ve been eyeing for years -- you then tend to go to your past and hire something familiar that you think you can control.
I’ll be highly impressed if Brady doesn’t hire an ex-Patriot guy and rather plucks/takes a chance on a young up-and-coming coaching prospect...then maybe Brady has a future in this NFL management game (or he’s just wildly throwing darts). But if he goes in with Brian Flores, the Raiders fans should absolutely revolt...revolt on Brady, and on Mark Davis for letting this ruse continue.
-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 34 WRs (19 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
Puka Nacua, George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Rashee Rice, Davante Adams, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Christian Watson, Parker Washington, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Jakobi Meyers, Alec Pierce, Courtland Sutton, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
Travis Hunter, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Jack Bech, Quentin Johnston, Ryan Flournoy, Keenan Allen, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Jayden Reed, Marvin Harrison, Tutu Atwell, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
-------------------
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1/7 WED
(4:54pmET)
-- A quick notice because I forgot to note it the last two mornings...
I am working on an NFC and AFC playoff preview/predictions report for those interested for your FF Playoff things, or betting, or whatever.
I think I will publish the NFC one Thursday (since I almost have it done, and it's pretty lengthy).
I will write the AFC one tomorrow, and publish it on Friday.
-- Also, while I got you...
For those into such things...please consider throwing me a quick prayer if you would. I am being hit by all the side effects of these hormone therapies for like the last two weeks...and it is not good/fun.
I went through the first two months of therapies with very little side effects...so much so, I was kinda jokingly-bragging to myself/wife/kids about how great everything battling cancer has been going so far. My cancer scores are way down, the therapies are kicking cancer-butt, my side effects are minimal...having/fighting cancer is a breeze!
Well, I have been recently reminded that cancer is a bitch. I think I made it mad with some too soon TD celebration action.
Actually, it's not the cancer hitting me...it's the therapies fighting the cancer...which are basically 'chemo' in some senses in a pill form. The 1-2 punch of pills is really altering my body now. It's defeating the cancer, but it's starting to take on collateral damage to me in the war. I spend most of the day, the past 2 weeks, in a perpetual state of being 'sea sick'...if you think of what that means, even if you've felt it for just a moment, imagine it happening all day long...sometimes mild waters, sometimes the storm comes and tosses me to and fro. It's not been fun. I try to work in-between the waves and winds and storms. Sitting and focusing on work is a godsend, but I also get very tired from the constant state of sea sickness. I get 4-5am for no reason...back to sleep around 7-9am...back to sleep again between 1-3pm...and the sleep just hits. I'll feel OK, then I'll get 'that feeling' and I have to go lay down and I collapse asleep fully clothed (which I hate that feeling of fully clothed sleep, but I cant even muster the energy to get out of them...I just curl up and am gone.
This is 'normal' reactions to taking these therapies, not unexpected or something wrong with me...and apparently/supposedly my body is now trying to adjust to it's new reality and it will 'right the ship' within a few weeks. Until that time, or to speed up getting to 'normal', the power of your prayers is welcomed to help get me there ASAP...as it has helped so much with so many little and big miracles along the way so far.
-----------------
(5:59amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Game Reports...as many as we can get out today and the rest of the week.
Wild Card Week projections update 6-8pmET approx.
Streaming news items throughout the day, more afternoon-night for me this day.
Any new betting action.
== NEW & NOTES ==
-- Open head coaching jobs (so far) and my early feel/rank for how coveted they are by candidates:
ATL
NYG (Dart is a big draw over ‘rookie’ QB in places like LV or ARI)
TEN
BAL
LV
ARI
CLE
It’s hard to say which direction these teams are going because only ‘definitely available’ candidates are ‘available’ to talk to at the moment. All the hot young assistants (HYA) are all preparing for the playoffs.
With each playoff win an HYA gets more momentum/desire...but are also further out of reach to even be talked to. With a playoff loss, HYA’s lose some momentum but are then available to talk to. It’s a weird system. This week...the ‘cold old fired’ Head Coaches (COFHC) are all the rage because they are ‘available’. Now is the time to talk to Stefanski, Daboll, Nagy, et. al. Next week you can talk to some HYA’s.
So, most of these jobs won’t even be close to being filled until two more weeks of teams losing in the playoffs and thus their candidates being more available. So, get ready for a week of more Stefanski, Flores, McCarthy rumor mill talk.
-- One of the HYA’s (but for Off. Coordinator jobs) is Chicago Bears QB Coach, former Ohio State QB, former NFL journeyman QB JT Barrett. Detroit among others may be coming after him to raid Ben Johnson’s staff.
-- HEADLINE: Cowboys fired defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus.
One of the top defensive coordinators of the last decade is getting blamed for a mess of a secondary he inherited...messy with injuries and drama, mostly injuries. Potentially a big mistake by Dallas...or Eberflus is just kinda done with the NFL and needs a break and Jerry Jones saw it and dumped him. Not sure which.
-- HEADLINE: NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports the Commanders and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury mutually parted ways.
I thought this was coming. Washington ‘clean sweep’d’ their whole staff essentially yesterday. They needed to, but they also have a Dan Quinn problem in all of this...but they are sticking with Quinn, who now has to rebuild a whole new staff...and Quinn is not in the McVay-Shanahan-O’Connell-Ben Johnson world, so he’s likely to acquire all retreads to help save his job in 2026. If the Washington GM is in charge of the assistant hirings, then we’ll see some ex-49ers/Shanahan tree people come here...maybe someone who can take over if Quinn needs to go next season.
At the top of their wish list: hire Mike McDaniel as O-C, if he came available. But a fired McDaniel is likely going back with Kyle Shanahan in some capacity (special assistant) until the O-C job opens again.
-- HEADLINE: ESPN’s Field Yates reports the Falcons and QB Kirk Cousins agreed to a “modified” final two years of Cousins’ contract.
Well, this probably lets us know Michael Penix’s health status is in jeopardy to start Week 1 of 2026...from the rehab perspective...and maybe Penix’s status ‘in general’ is in question with Raheem gone...all that leading to ATL needing a QB in the meantime.
The Falcons see themselves ‘on the verge’, so they won’t reach for a rookie QB solution...they will settle for Cousins until they see what’s up with Penix -- is my opinion.
Some people theorize that this contract change makes Cousins more attractive to trade. Who is trading for Cousins as a starter? Nobody. Cousins’ best situation is in the Falcons situation...with now a Falcons ‘President’ (Matt Ryan) who understands/bonds with older QBs and has no idea or background on how to scout or deal with rookie QBs. The Falcons are gonna be going for experienced players to try and win the NFC South in 2026. They think they are already the favorite.
An experienced head coach is coming here, not an ‘HYA’. Matt Ryan is gonna work with experienced people he can bond with fast -- Stefanski, McCarthy, etc. Had Washington fired Dan Quinn, this Falcons job search might already be over.
-- Two key, massive injury situations that change the game for a couple playoff teams...
1) Eagles RT Lane Johnson (foot) is expected to practice Wednesday.
If Lane Johnson gets back practicing in full by game time, then the Eagles might be the favorite to come out of the NFC.
2) Bears designated CB Kyler Gordon (hamstring) to return from injured reserve.
Gordon has played just three games this year, Weeks 6 and 7, as well as Week 13, while struggling through a long-term injury. If healthy, he’d be a huge addition. The key words there are “if healthy.” The Bears also opened OT Braxton Jones’ 21-day window.
The Bears may getting some extra/needed help for the playoffs. Getting a healthy Gordon back would be massive for their erratic defense.
-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 32 WRs (18 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Rashee Rice, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Christian Watson, Parker Washington, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Jakobi Meyers, Alec Pierce, Courtland Sutton, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
Travis Hunter, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Jack Bech, Quentin Johnston, Ryan Flournoy, Keenan Allen, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Jayden Reed, Marvin Harrison, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
-------------------
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1/6 TUE
(5:09amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Game Reports today...as many as we can get out.
News & Notes throughout the day.
Wild Card Round Player Projections
== NEWS & NOTES ==
-- For what it is worth, it looks like my first full scouting report is going to be on Notre Dame RB Jeremiah Love. He seems to be the clear, predominant top-rated RB and pacing to be the top player for Dynasty Rookie Drafts.
I’ll be starting that study this week to publish the report next week. Next up, after Love, to study this week, will be one of the top WRs...not sure which one first.
I won’t start the Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore studies until their seasons are over.
-- HEADLINE: The Raiders fired coach Pete Carroll.
Well, we all knew this was coming.
To me, this is on Tom Brady and his part-time management of the Raiders. I don’t feel like he is getting the proper blame for all this.
A quick recap of Brady’s 2025...
He picked his buddy as GM, which is fine, and I’m sure all moves get checked with Brady ahead of time.
Brady tried everything to put the ‘schmooze’ on courting Ben Johnson to Vegas, as he should...but he obviously didn’t do a good enough job to seal the deal and Johnson wasn’t impressed enough with the Vegas situation to not take a phone call from Chicago and then immediately take their deal, not giving LV/Tom a chance to even counter/beat the offer. Ben Johnson is smart...he may have seen the Raiders’ management structure and said, ‘no, thanks’.
I don’t know that Tom Brady is used to being told ‘no, thanks’. The Raiders then spiraled and panicked into Pete Carroll, and I don’t believe for a second that Brady didn’t give a thumbs up on the subsequent Geno deal. You think Chip Kelly was hired and paid a bunch without Brady’s blessing? Brady has his finger in everything...and his fingerprints are on pure disaster decisions in 2025.
If there was an award for WORST executive of the year, Tom Brady should be up for that with his 2025 resume. Thankfully, for Brady, Aaron Glenn exists...so it would be a coin flip for that fictitious award. And Tom Brady is football royalty, so you ain’t criticizing him.
BUT that’s the problem -- Brady has his fingers in everything, and not his whole body and soul. He’s doing broadcasting...he’s doing commercials...he’s got multiple businesses...and he’s running the Raiders as a part-time hobby with his GM-buddy under the nose of one of the dumbest owners in the league. Brady is playing everyone for a fool...he’s like the mob, he’s getting ‘a taste’ from all angles. And I don’t blame him. He’s having fun and getting paid...we’d all do the same if we could? But if you think Tom Brady has some magic potion to NOW fix the Raiders, among his part-time gigs...you're conning yourself with ‘hopeium’.
Elon Musk gets crucified for being spread too thin among his businesses and politics, and rightfully so if you’re a Tesla shareholder. But Tom Brady is spread all around different ventures and hobbies and jet-setting and still trying to run the Raiders without a lick of experience doing so -- and no one cares. Miami turning to Troy Aikman...Atlanta turning to Matt Ryan...desperate acts of similar ‘hopeium’. Being a long-time loyal employee does not mean you know how to build and run an organization.
-- HEADLINE: The Cardinals fired Jonathan Gannon.
This was long overdue. One of the absolute weirdest non-leaders of men there was in the NFL. He’ll never be a head coach again. He will be a D-C for some team. Not a top choice D-C, but a mid-range ‘settling’ hire by an old school coach who has no fresh connections in the league...so he’ll be Mike McCarthy’s or Kevin Stefanski’s D-C, something like that.
-- HEADLINE: The Browns fired coach Kevin Stefanski. GM Andrew Berry will remain in place and lead the search for a new head coach, according to a statement from Browns owners Dee and Jimmy Haslam.
So, Stefanski is out...but the long-time GM Andrew Berry still remains? So ‘Cleveland’.
Stefanski will be the gem hire for the teams that no fresh coaching prospect with a future would want to go to. So, Stefanski is gonna be very much on the Giants’ radar.
Atlanta doesn’t need to hire a retread, they are gonna be the top choice for any fresh coach like Klint Kubiak or Declan Doyle...but newly ‘in charge’ Matt Ryan will potentially block that and go for things of his era he is more comfortable with.
Arizona may strikeout on all its attempts to get a young/fresh name because none of them want to go complete with McVay-Shanahan on a regular basis...so, Stefanski is a possibility here.
Tennessee is gonna go for Matt Nagy or someone else from the Andy Reid tree, but Stefanski is a fail-safe potential there too.
The Raiders will not hire Stefanski...the Raiders will either compound Brady’s 2025 mistakes and hire an ex-Patriot to coach to be loyal to Brady, or Brady is going to get back at Ben Johnson by taking Declan Doyle away. Either way...Brady does not have his finger on the pulse of the league, potentially. He thinks he does, but he’s not in the grind, he isn’t grooming any coaches in his career...but McVay-Shanahan-O’Connell are, constantly losing coaches and then growing up ones right behind them that everyone will want a year from now...and so on, and so on...
Stefanski will get one of the 2026 job openings, for sure.
== Early 2026 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings ==
This is not MY rankings...it’s several sources dumped into Gemini and asking it to make a consensus top 12.
I was doing research to try and set a schedule/order for the first full scouting reports for me, so I am trying to do the ones of most interest to the audience right away.
I thought you’d have interest in seeing the early consensus (below), which will likely be my hit list/order of studies ahead.
|
Rank |
Player |
Pos |
School |
(Gemini) Scouting Note |
|
1.01 |
Jeremiyah Love |
RB |
Notre Dame |
The undisputed 1.01. Doak Walker winner; 1,600+ total yards in '25. Elite speed/size combo. |
|
1.02 |
Jordyn Tyson |
WR |
Arizona St |
The "cleanest" WR in the class. Elite route nuance and high-end YAC ability. |
|
1.03 |
Makai Lemon |
WR |
USC |
Massive late-2025 riser. Explosive athlete who has taken over as the primary weapon at USC. |
|
1.04 |
Carnell Tate |
WR |
Ohio State |
The next in the OSU lineage. Physical "X" receiver with great body control. |
|
1.05 |
Justice Haynes |
RB |
Georgia |
Dealing with a late-season injury but has the highest "pure" talent ceiling of the RBs. |
|
1.06 |
Denzel Boston |
WR |
Washington |
A 6'4" monster. Massive catch radius; projects as a high-volume red zone target. |
|
1.07 |
Fernando Mendoza |
QB |
Indiana |
The 2025 Heisman winner. In 1QB, he’s lower, but his "Burrow-esque" accuracy is undeniable. |
|
1.08 |
Jadarian Price |
RB |
Notre Dame |
The "lightning" to Love's "thunder." Higher YPC and homerun ability; elite metrics. |
|
1.09 |
Nicholas Singleton |
RB |
Penn State |
Returning for his senior year. 4.3 speed at 225 lbs; the best pure athlete in the class. |
|
1.10 |
Jonah Coleman |
RB |
Washington |
A stout 5'9", 225-lb "bowling ball" with surprisingly good hands (3-down potential). |
|
1.11 |
Kenyon Sadiq |
TE |
Oregon |
The 2026 "Unicorn." Moves like a WR at 245 lbs. High-end athletic tester. |
|
1.12 |
KC Concepcion |
WR |
NC State |
The "Percy Harvin" role. Shifty slot weapon who will be a PPR-scam monster. |
-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 30 WRs (17 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Rashee Rice, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Christian Watson, Parker Washington, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Jakobi Meyers, Alec Pierce, Cedric Tillman, Courtland Sutton, Brian Thomas Jr.
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Isaac TeSlaa, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Romeo Doubs, Khalil Shakir, Jalen Coker
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
Travis Hunter, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Jack Bech, Ryan Flournoy, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Jayden Reed, Marvin Harrison, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
-------------------
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1/5 MON
(6:37amET)
-- Today's Agenda...
Game reports will post randomly all week as we complete them this week.
FFM news stream page will be active/happening nearly every day all this week, as we get news on situations...a lot of coach-firing about to happen.
Executive Summary Report planned to post after 5-8pmET, when completed.
== Coming Up on FFM... ==
1) Our focus starts to turn, to some degree, to the playoffs.
We will have Wild Card week projections out on Tuesday...and update them throughout the week.
We’ll also have playoff previews for FF and betting, etc., later in the week/before the games begin.
My top Wild Card bet posted last night, if interested...time is of the essence...I think the line might change by 1-2 points in the next 48 or so hours.
2) Scouting Season Begins...
Full scouting reports will debut sometime next week (week of 1/12). And full scouting reports, like normal, all offseason pre and post draft into the preseason.
We’ll be working on the Senior Bowl and East-West Shrine preview scouting all January and producing reports/early grades leading up to Senior Bowl and E-W week.
First report of the new scouting season? Not sure. Might be Jeremiah Love. Can’t do the Indy QB until his season is finished.
3) One of my main projects this next week or so, and I have to allow for coaching changes and O-C changes to get finalized as part of it too...is to construct the HOLY player list for Dynasty 2026.
The players we should look to build Dynasty teams on, early Best Ball drafts on, and construct our eventual redraft plans on.
More on the Dynasty HOLY reports when the time comes.
4) News & Notes
All month, every day, we’ll be reacting to all the football news, as usual. The coaching rumors/changes, the playoff stuff, the draft, etc. No days off in football coverage...
== News & Notes ==
-- HEADLINE = The Falcons have fired coach Raheem Morris and GM Terry Fontenot...
I did not project this change to happen. I thought/projected the potential to be less than 50% likely to happen a few days ago...but I thought it was possible. There may be a recent high number of coaches getting axe’d this week/offseason.
What may save some coaches from getting fired this next week or so is...so many firings and not enough attractive candidates to fill the spots. But offsetting that might be: people want change, and they want it NOW...and they don’t properly consider/don’t have any real solutions or game plan on replacement besides ‘hope’ (that the right candidate falls out of the sky and chooses them).
https://x.com/mysportsupdate/status/2007992681964921089?s=43
https://x.com/mysportsupdate/status/2007976952569974924?s=43
-- Panthers fans are celebrating their team...Lions fans are mocking and denigrating and lamenting their team.
https://x.com/underdog/status/2007976963944985040?s=43
https://x.com/panthos704/status/2007959775561257004?s=43
-- Final Standings...
https://x.com/stuckey2/status/2007989398496055635?s=43
-- The changing of the guard...
I went back and looked at the last 10 years of division winners in the NFL...to see how many of 8 division winners in a season were ‘new’/not winners the season prior.
I was interested in the info because we got a shocking amount of divisional winner change in the 8 divisions this season.
I thought it was like 2-3 average division champs changeover per year in the prior 10 years, but it’s a little more than that. Still, 2025 is the biggest outlier in the past decade (and likely longer/maybe ever in the modern era).
The history of ‘new’ division winners each season (didn’t win it the season prior):
2016 = 6
2017 = 5
2018 = 4
2019 = 3
2020 = 5
(an average of 4.6 division winner changes 6-10 years ago)
2021 = 4
2022 = 5
2023 = 4
2024 = 2
(an average of 3.8 division winner changes the past 4 years)
*4.2 division winner changes the 9 years
2025 = 7 new division winners on the season. Only Philly repeated.
The NFL is changing at warp speed. Most ‘historical data’ nuggets that people use for predictive models ahead -- it’s all useless, aged out, irrelevant.
-- New Hierarchy list for the next month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.
Current > Waddle count = 30 WRs (16 teams in)
CLEARY better than Waddle:
George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Nico Collins, Drake London
BETTER than Waddle:
Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Rashee Rice, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, Jayden Higgins, Rome Odunze, Christian Watson, Parker Washington, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Jakobi Meyers, Alec Pierce, Cedric Tillman, Courtland Sutton, Brian Thomas Jr.
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
Marvin Mims, Isaac TeSlaa, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Romeo Doubs, Khalil Shakir, Jalen Coker
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
Travis Hunter, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Ryan Flournoy, Xavier Worthy, Jayden Reed, Marvin Harrison, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney
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