Just like the Mingo dilemma: Is Wilson just a sleeper prospect...or serious contender for the top WR grade?
*I got several requests for my original Michael Wilson scouting report because some people recall we ultimately pushed Wilson as the top WR prospect in the 2023 draft class back in that day...which wasn't the right call, probably, because Puka Nacua has become the top dog from this class that yielded several stars...in which I thought this was a weaker WR class.
I would argue Wilson is showing he's better than JSN and Rashee, but no one will agree with that...and that's fine, they're both proving to be really good as well..
The top seven picked WRs in the 2023 NFL Draft...
JSN #20...I didn't love his game like others did and did not like the landing spot for FF back then (DKM and Lockett in place).
Quentin Johnston #21...I thought he'd bust.
Zay Flowers #22...liked him as the top WR prospect among the smaller/speedy WRs.
Jordan Addison #23...wasn't a huge fan, but he was OK.
J. Mingo #39...thought he was an OK/good prospect who landed in a shaky QB situation.
Jayden Reed #50...thought he was solid not special.
Rashee Rice #55...thought he would be a major off-field problem with suspect hands.
-----------------
Notables after the top 7...
Mk Wilson #94
Puka #177...didn't think he'd be much, and thought he'd be blocked by Kupp...Kupp got hurt and Puka was great/been a shock.
Parker Washington #185...thought he was solid.
Anyway, here's the reprint of the April 2023 initial reporting...
=====================
*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.
*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the-top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are typically less physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much.
Yesterday, I completed my Jonathan Mingo studies and reported out/concluded, almost by default, that he could be the top WR prospect in this weak 2023 WR class -- and our computer models graded him right up with the top WR names of 2023. Right after that, I started (and finished) my Michael Wilson studies…and as I write this report -- I'll go with Michael Wilson as the better version of Jonathan Mingo. So will our computer models.
Does that mean Michael Wilson is the best WR in this draft, according to us? Yes. Well…maybe not. Possibly, yes. It's complicated.
I will say this: I just finished a stretch of scouting time studying Wilson, Mingo, Antoine Green and Bryce Ford-Wheaton -- all the bigger, thicker, athletic WR prospects…not the tiny/speedy or rail thin/speedy top mainstream prospects. What I discovered: Ford-Wheaton can't catch. I liked Mingo and Green's tape, and have liked them all along (since the Senior Bowl and Combine preview scouting)…but watching Michael Wilson -- I quickly saw that Wilson was the better version of the Mingo-Green-Wilson class of real/desired-sized NFL WRs.
I thought going in that Wilson was too hurt and had a lack of college production that would preclude him from being a serious top WR prospect of 2023 -- but separating the injuries and production (which we'll get to), just watching the tape…Wilson is just better at his craft. Wilson just pops off the screen for me, from a scouting perspective. Not that he's elite and miles ahead of the others…just that he has some/more of the 'it' factor that demands to be taken seriously.
We all love comps…it helps paint pictures, so 'here goes': Michael Wilson is the Davante Adams wannabe of this WR class. The best size + feet + catch ability combination of all the 2023 WR prospects. There are faster or taller WRs than Wilson and a few who have, arguably, better hands -- but Wilson where Wilson wins out is his total package -- he is the right NFL size, solid speed and nice agility metrics, has 'plus' hands…AND all of that packaged with the best ability to run a route/the fastest feet off the snap in the class. Put it all together and he is unmatched checking all the key boxes, some at the highest level.
A Davante Adams-alike who led all WR Combine prospects in bench press strength (23 reps) but who has missed more games the past three seasons (16) than he has played (14)…and the most games he's played in a season the past three years is six…and a WR prospect who only has two 100+ yard games in his career and has never finished top 10 in his conference in receptions, yards, or TDs.
Let's address his issues…injuries and production, but first let me go through the positives…
-- Davante Adams-like…that innate ability to fast-feet get-off on the snap and get open in a blink at a solid NFL size.
-- Has #1 WR size and route-running ability.
-- Good+ hands. Great high point/contested pass catcher with a solid+ 37.5" vertical.
-- #6 in the PAC-12 in 2022 in yards per catch (16.1)…in a dead/bottom of the barrel passing game.
-- Ran the ball 6 times in his career (four rushes in 6 games in 2022), for 55 yards…9.2 yards per clip.
-- Bench press strong. Looking at his body without a uniform on, like at the Senior Bowl, and he looks like a Greek god. Worked as punt returner as well his first two seasons at Stanford, before the injury issues. Is not a finesse type player/WR…he is stout.
-- Team captain. Four-time All-Academic PAC-12 Honor Roll student/athlete.
The makings of a legit, high-end NFL WR are here. But the injuries and production questions…
Injuries:
2020 + 2021 season = The COVID shortened 2020 season. In the 4th game of the season, he hurt his foot in-game…tried to play through it…later came out of the game to get X-Rays and he found out he broke his foot. A 'Jones fracture' (a type of foot injury that affects the base of the fifth metatarsal bone, which is located on the outer side of the foot). End of his season…missed his final two games.
Took about six months to heal. When he got fully cleared by doctors, in his second workout back…he broke the same bone…another 'Jones fracture' in the same place, and back out again for 5-6 months. The second injury cost him the first 8 games of the following (2021) season -- two seasons affected by the same injury occurring at the wrong times to wipe out parts of two college seasons.
2022 season = Back, cleared for his senior season and was playing well but then got hurt in his 6th game of the season -- an undisclosed injury (and I mean UNDISCLOSED, I have no real verifiable info on what the injury was). Wilson missed the rest of the season…again.
Whatever the injury was…he was able to recover in time to be ready for the late January trip to the Senior Bowl (which he was a standout performer at), so the 2022 injury couldn't have been a devastating injury or broken foot again, etc. Logically, it sounds like a high sprain of the ankle or knee hyperextension or PCL sprain/strain…but that's a pure guess. Whatever it was, approx. six weeks later he was training for the Senior Bowl. There was no need to push to get back to playing for a dying Stanford team.
You can't help but say Wilson is injury prone, given all his missed games…but he's not having issues with hamstrings or torn knees or ankles or shoulder issues -- he had a small fracture on the outside of his foot that didn't heal properly (I guess) and he broke it again right after. He's two years clear of the broken foot issue, as best we can tell.
Downgrading him on the injury history is appropriate but it's questionable whether he should get the full/punishable 'injury red flag' label. There are prospects who tear their ACL the year prior to coming out and have the surgery/rehab, etc., and we think they are bargains-in-waiting. Wilson had the broken foot issue and people want to stay far away from him for the draft. It's like most things NFL Draft related -- we haven't been told by our overlords (football analysts) that we can fully love a Michael Wilson, so he's not given any grace and some analysts call him a 'sleeper' and that's gets a head nod from people, but they don't really get super-enthusiastic about him. If he had gone to Georgia or Alabama -- he'd be written about as a 1st-round prospect that was just temporarily sidetracked with all the injury stuff…and you know that's a fact.
Marquise Brown was the top WR taken in his draft going into the process despite a then current leg injury where he couldn't workout -- but Oklahoma was an 'it' offense at the time. Anyone remember Michael Crabtree for the draft…when Texas Tech was all the rage on offense? Jameson Williams…ACL three months prior to the draft, no problem, #12 pick. Michael Wilson had an ill-timed broken foot issue a couple years ago -- but he's an echoed-by-all 'injury concern'. See how that works?
Also helping squash any draft love for Wilson is a lack of production…no big season to point at. No games we ever saw on TV with him because Stanford sucks and no one outside of their fanbase cares about them the past few years.
However, if you start patching together his production within all the partial seasons…a highly productive WR is lurking. In his last 16 games played (back to his final three games of 2019, and minus his 2020 Washington injury in-game), Wilson has averaged: 5.2 catches, 93.2 yards, and 0.44 TDs per game in his final career stretch. That's a 13-game season projection of: 68 catches, 1,212 yards, 6 TDs…17.8 yards per catch. That hypothetical season would have been good enough for 8th most rec. yards in the NCAA in 2022…and top 25 in catches and yards per catch.
I go all that way with twisted math projections to try to convey that not only has Wilson shown some serious production ability -- but he did all this with a terrible passing game at Stanford the past two seasons…a passing game throwing for under 200 yards per game and barely a pass TD per game.
And I will further this discussion by saying something VERY key to all this…something you can't get from 'analytics'…Wilson was open A LOT, but Stanford QB Tanner McKee couldn't really distribute the ball well (and the blocking did not help him). When McKee wasn't specifically looking at Wilson off the snap…he wasn't getting the ball. There was a +20-30-50% jump his numbers possibly left on the table because he chose/had the bad fortune to play for the Stanford offense.
If you want to downgrade Wilson for his injuries…it's logical. If you are put off by his production numbers…I get it. All I'm saying is, I've deeper-scouted most all the consensus top 15 wide receivers from this class, and partially/preview scouted all of the top 50 or so WR prospects -- and my eyes tell me Wilson is the best WR prospect for the NFL among them. He may break his foot tomorrow. He may never take off in the NFL or get the chance because he doesn't enter the NFL with the fanfare others will and thus coaches look right past him…but in a weak 2023 class of WR prospects -- Wilson is arguably the most technically gifted, best all-around package of WR skills of the bunch (a weak bunch).
Michael Wilson, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:
-- With Wilson on the field in 2022, Stanford threw 12 TD passes in their first 6 games (Wilson with 4 of the 12 TDs). When Wilson was then gone for the final 6 games…just 3 TD passes for Stanford for the rest of the season.
-- 2023 Senior Bowl game leader in receiving yards (76) and the only receiver to catch a TD pass in the game.
When Wilson went to the Senior Bowl, he was there with about half the top 15 WRs for this draft -- it was Wilson who shined brightest among them…even as the analysts tried to push Jayden Reed as the top Senior Bowl WR, it was clear Wilson was the bigger, better version of Reed.
-- Three career games against Notre Dame: 8.3 rec., 71.3 yards, 0.33 TDs per game.
The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Michael Wilson Most Compares Within Our System:
The hybrid of Cody Latimer and Davante Adams? The reason why Latimer drew the closest comp -- because Wilson's bench press is so high end (and Latimer also had a big-time bench). But these other stud WR comps…they didn't get 'strong' until a year or two of work into their NFL journey.
Latimer was an analytics dream…a 2nd-round draft pick…he flashed some skills in the pros but could never put it all together, and some of that was attitude/effort (allegedly) -- you won't have those issues with Wilson. He might have other issues, but work ethic is not one of them.
|
WR Score |
Draft Yr |
Last |
First |
College |
H |
H |
W |
Power Strngth Metric |
Speed Agility Metric |
Hands Metric |
|
8.187 |
2023 |
Wilson |
Michael |
Stanford |
6 |
1.7 |
213 |
7.26 |
8.09 |
8.38 |
|
8.489 |
2014 |
Latimer |
Cody |
Indiana |
6 |
2.4 |
215 |
8.60 |
7.03 |
9.53 |
|
7.769 |
2014 |
Adams |
Davante |
Fresno St |
6 |
0.7 |
212 |
9.41 |
5.71 |
8.98 |
|
8.456 |
2013 |
Hopkins |
DeAndre |
Clemson |
6 |
1.0 |
214 |
9.26 |
6.97 |
10.86 |
|
8.691 |
2014 |
Robinson |
Allen |
Penn State |
6 |
2.5 |
220 |
8.57 |
4.24 |
9.34 |
|
9.575 |
2006 |
Austin |
Miles |
Monmouth |
6 |
2.1 |
215 |
5.99 |
4.14 |
9.65 |
*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Big-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Big-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Big-WR.
All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.
Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, and rated historically in our database.
"Power-Strength" = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc. High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.
"Speed-Agility" = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/to create separation.
"Hands" = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance. Everything combining to project catch-abilities for the next level.
2023 NFL Draft Outlook:
Wilson has been running as a top 150 overall prospect most of this year, but he's gaining more and more fans among the analyst class because they can see 'it' on tape…and the other top WRs are so sketchy this year. Of late, he's becoming everyone's sneaky sleeper WR so much that it's the least kept secret in the draft of late. If his medical checks out fine, he'll go 2nd-round…and if his medical is super-clean, he could be a shock top 5-6 WR taken…in part, because the first push of top 10 WR prospects to the public for this draft are mostly ridiculous. He'll go in the top 100 overall, no matter what.
If I were an NFL GM, I'd have an interest in Wilson too…but if he gets chased up into the 2nd-round, I would probably 'pass'. This weak WR class is causing a loss of 'bargains' at WR. I like Wilson a lot, but he's not the ultimate WR prospect…hell, even if he is the #1 WR prospect for 2023…he'd have been like the 5-6-7th best WR prospect in the 2022 class.
NFL Outlook:
If he lands right…with a good coach, passing game, and QB -- he could develop his way to being the best WR to come out of this 2023 class. But if he lands wrong…he could become a frustrated, forgettable WR -- like if he lands in Atlanta or Tennessee or with the WR-crowded Giants, etc.
