Analyzing the game tape for Dynasty/Fantasy purposes...
The Chiefs 1st-team went out and destroyed the Bears mostly 1st-team...taking a 20-10 lead into the half. They extended the lead to 27-10 in the 3rd-quarter...and then it was time for the Tyson Bagent show.
Bagent led a 4th-quarter, down three scores comeback...hitting a TD pass with seconds remaining...he had 3 TD passes in the 4th-quarter. BUT ‘nothing to see here’, for the mainstream...it’s just the preseason...but did you see that one Jaxson Dart pass this week? Man, that guy is a star...and Shedeur Sanders should be the Browns starter! That’s what the mainstream is focused on...not the Tyson Bagent takeover at QB in progress in Chicago. Gotta protect their boy (Caleb)!
Some pretty good notes from this one...
Player Notes...
-- So, Caleb Williams (11-15 for 113 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) started and couldn’t really thrive/do much against the KC 1st-team defense...no TD drives against the 1st-team D...same old struggles in the pocket. It wasn’t horrible...it was just ‘nothing’. No real change from 2024. Same issues are there. Ben Johnson, contrary to popular opinion, cannot just sprinkle coaching pixie dust on a QB and ‘fix’ them.
Caleb eventually led a TD drive, throwing a TD pass...but only once KC put in their 2nd-team defense.
Tyson Bagent (20-28 for 212 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) looked really good here. I know it’s him versus the 2nd/3rd-team defenses...but he’s also working WITH his 2nd/3rd-team offense/blocking /receivers. He led a comeback victory in the 4th-quarter with heavy, savvy passing...throwing to WRs and TEs who won’t be on the team in a few days. That’s what you want to see in the preseason -- a young and/or backup QB making some magic with limited tools.
Bagent looked like a pro here. Running the offense like a surgeon. Putting passes in the right spots for the time and situation of the game. Using the clock to his advantage...knowing when to get receivers out of bounds, knowing when to spike the ball, knowing when to not run because the clock management was too precious during the comeback. I don’t see Caleb with those same skills...big arm though...can really sling it when he has extra time or scrambles around.
I don’t think Ben Johnson or like 30+ other coaches want to install an offense based on the QB being random and seeing the QB constantly improvise and scramble to make things work....and freezing up in the pocket when it gets a little muddy.
Bagent signed a nice contract extension this past week for a reason...the Bears/Ben Johnson offered it for a reason...he sees the writing on the wall. I don’t know when it will happen, but it’s gonna happen -- Caleb is gonna get replaced by Bagent.
-- Something quick on Patrick Mahomes (8-13 for 143 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) from this game...
Mahomes and the 1st-team played for like a quarter or so. And my main takeaway from watching him was = I know he worked out more and got in better shape this offseason, but I had kinda forgotten about that until I saw him here...definitely the best he’s ever looked in a football uniform.
He’s slimmed, sleek, and you can see some muscle definition in his arms/triceps. Whether it means a better FF season, we’ll see...but physically he looks really good. Very nimble in this appearance. His passing was some old Mahomes...looked fine...it’s his receivers that are in question. We’ll get into that.
-- Chiefs RB report...
Quite the rotation here. Remember the Chiefs ran the 1st-team offense for quite a while in this game. Here were the RBs in for each play when the 1st-team was playing...
Series #1: Pacheco, Pacheco, Pacheco, Br. Smith (passing down), Pacheco, Pacheco, Br. Smith, Hunt, Pacheco (6 snaps Pacheco, 2 Smith, 1 Hunt).
You would not be shocked by that ‘flow’...maybe a little shocked by the early Brashard Smith...when he was in, it was a passing situation.
You will be shocked, a little/lot, by series two...
Series #2: Hunt, Hunt, Hunt, Hunt, Hunt, Hunt (6 snaps Hunt, none for anyone else)
Maybe you’re thinking that Pacheco got his work in on the first drive, and then they went with Hunt and the 2nd-team...but you would be wrong. The 1st-team was still out there, Mahomes and all for a 3rd-series.
And I’ll prove that is not the right thought (that Hunt was just in because Pacheco was done) when you see series three...
Series #3: Pacheco, Pacheco, Pacheco, Pacheco, Pacheco, Br. Smith (5 snaps Pacheco, 1 Smith)
Total snaps played with the 1st-team: 11 Pacheco, 7 Hunt, 3 Smith).
I would conclude that the Chiefs plan to run Pacheco and Hunt as some rotating duo. Pacheco as the 60/40 or so lead, but Hunt getting work, Reid keeping everyone fresh, the door open to some hot hand...and Brashard Smith rotating in on special passing play situations.
When the 1st-team finished, and Mahomes was done...no more Pacheco or Hunt. It was then Smith getting the RB work with the 2nd-team.
Elijah Mitchell (3-14-1) came in the game later...and he looks like he is getting cut and/or going to the practice squad. Carson Steele will be a FB...and can be the #4 RB as needed.
I warned not to take Hunt lightly. Reid loves Hunt, like he loves Pacheco.
Pacheco looks like he’s as fast as he was his rookie and second season. Hunt looks totally fine. Smith looks like a nice curveball they can throw out there intermittently.
-- Chiefs WR report...
If you only used this game, this preseason of 1st-team work (Weeks 1 and 3), you’d walk away thinking the following about the Chiefs receivers...
Rashee Rice (2-13-1/2) is Mahomes’s everything. Everyone else is a side dish at the Thanksgiving meal, but Rashee is the main course turkey. Why I chose that analogy, I have no idea. Really, Thanksgiving is not that far away.
Tyquan Thornton (1-58-0/2) and Jason Brownlee (1-16-0/4) are making this WR group, and they are gonna play snaps and take some work away from Worthy-Hollywood. Brownlee is really showing some spark with KC. The constant hockey line-like rotation of KC WRs was showing in this exhibition.
It’s probably JuJu who fills in for a suspended Rashee (if/when). Jalen Royals is becoming a ghost.
Travis Kelce (2-32-0/3) looks like he’s picking up where he left off...slowing down, increasing drops, but still involved in the offense and will be some kind of TE1 by just being on the field for this...and may have a boost when/while Rashee is gone. But it does look like Kelce is starting to fade to some degree...but still enough in the tank to take somewhat FF-seriously. Top 1-2-3 TE Kelce...those days are long gone.
-- Bears RB/WR/TE report...
The Bears are gonna start Moore-Odunze-Zaccheaus. They will run that for a bit until/if they throw in the towel on Caleb. If Chicago goes like (1-5) or (2-6) and Caleb shows no signs of improvement, Caleb will likely go via trade...but maybe they wait for the offseason. The market will be thin for Caleb when teams deduce that ‘if Ben Johnson couldn’t fix him...’
If/when that happens, D.J. Moore (1-14-0/1) will likely be traded as well. And then Luther Burden (1-9-0) will get into the lineup. Watching Burden this preseason...solid enough WR, but I don’t see the ‘star power’ yet.
D’Andre Swift (7-28-0, 1-6-0/1) will start at RB but likely working with/pressed by Kyle Monangai. When/if the bears tank, Swift will be gone too.
It’s a Colston Loveland (1-4-0/1)/Cole Kmet split for now, but if/when the tank begins...Kmet will be dealt.
-- IDP Notes...
It looks like two changes to the KC defense for 2025...(?)
(1) Trent McDuffie moved back to the slot and Kristain Fulton becomes the new outside starter with Jaylen Watson.
(2) Jaden Hicks is now a starting SAF. Chamarri Conner out of the starting lineup and is Hicks’ backup.
Chiefs UDFA rookie DB Kevin Knowles (4 tackles) is on the verge of making the 53-man roster.
