- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Chiefs 33, Panthers 31
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Carolina Panthers are my favorite team in football.
Well, they are supposed to be my favorite team for 2021 and beyond. It’s like I made a reservation in advance. The Buffalo Bills are my 2020 team…I’m was just using them to get Carolina in 2021. I didn’t realize, until watching this very game…that Carolina was my favorite team already. It happened right before my eyes all these weeks and I couldn’t see it until now. This was one of the best coached, brilliantly schemed games of 2020…the Panthers just went toe-to-toe with the Chiefs and missed a last second win by a wide right, NFL record setting attempt field goal attempt (had the distance but bled right).
I thought this would be a year the Panthers got better as the season progressed and everyone would then like them as a sleeper team for 2021. They’re ahead of schedule. They’ve been giving very good team fits all season, playing them down to the wire since Week 1. They almost pulled a shocker here. Get ready to bet them as ‘over’ on win totals for 2021 and as NFC South champs as well.
In this game, the Panthers were beautiful. Going for it on 4th-downs, smartly…in fact the very first drive they took the ball into the red zone and were in a spot were 9,999,999 out of 10,000,000 football coaches would have taken a 4th & short easy field goal on the very first series to get the lead and make some kind of statement that they scored first, like it would matter vs. KC – when the real statement for settling for a field goal really is…is ‘we came to try and not lose by too much’. The Panthers went for it on 4th-down instead…and scored a TD – that was a real statement.
KC answered with a field goal. And then Carolina drove right down again but the drive stalled midfield and they pulled an excellent fake punt for a first down, and that led another TD – a shocking 14-3 Panthers lead into the 2nd-quarter. The thing was…Carolina seemed to have all these specific situational plays and situations ready to go and didn’t hesitate. They played to win the game in their preparations all week…and they all knew it/were prepared because they ran those critical plays with ease, with confidence. My gripe about NFL coaches is they play things so safe that when they do ‘go for it’ at times their teams freeze up because they’re not practiced to do such ‘radical things’. Not Carolina…not here. Carolina led 17-14 at the half.
KC got it together in the 3rd-quarter and jumped ahead 26-17…and then we’re all thinking the cute Panthers story is over, and now the big boys were in control…but the Panthers answered right back …the KC answered right back…and then Carolina answered right back – all this back and forth happening in the 4th-quarter.
33-31 KC with 1:55 left and Carolina kicking off post-their TD. This should’ve been the time the superior Chiefs got the 1st-down and then ran the clock out and left Carolina hanging. But the Panthers defense bowed up with a huge stop and got the ball back with 1:26 to try and get into field goal range for the win.
Down the field Carolina went but KC made a huge stop (incomplete pass) with 0:02 left, with Carolina trying to get closer for a field goal. On the last play, the Panthers lined up for a 67-yard (NFL record) field goal and the win…Joey Slye had the distance, but it drifted right quickly and ‘ball game’.
The Chiefs won but it honestly felt like the Panthers won. I think even the Chiefs would admit that. It wasn’t just a lucky, close loss mortal victory – it was a lesser roster, young team and rookie head coach playing a game better than their superior opponent and left knowing they should’ve won but that ‘they belonged’. This game, this loss is the catalyst for the Panthers to be a dominant force for years to come. Matt Rhule is going to be known as the one of the, if not the single best coach in the NFL in the years ahead…and he’s bringing this thing in months/a year+ ahead of schedule.
Carolina catches Tampa Bay next week, off the Bucs rebound game from their Saints egg on SNF…so probably another loss. Then three winnable games and then a tough ending stretch at GB, at WSH, NO finish. Carolina could’ve been a playoff team with a better schedule, but they are likely to finish with 6-7 wins this year and are my favorite for the NFC South from 2021 to 2025 at a minimum.
The Chiefs sneak away to (8-1) and go into their bye week. After their bye they have at LV, at TB…a revenge game and a going to be very much hyped game. If the Chiefs win those two games, they could go (15-1). I’m sure they’ll trip up somewhere and end up (14-2) and still be a #1 seed in the AFC. The #1 seed is SO important ion 2020…only one bye given in each conference this year…the other six playoff qualifiers have to play that first weekend (seeds #2-7).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First, we gotta talk about Curtis Samuel (3-13-0, 9-105-1/9).
You know where I’ve been with Samuel since the preseason, the summer, the spring, and back for 2-3 years. He’s like one of the faces of FFM…meaning, me proclaiming him a hidden star, and everyone getting excited initially, then it stumbling, and me complaining about his usage, and you getting tired of hearing about it, but I wouldn’t stop, and you’d get more annoyed and want me to just ‘give it up’, but I went down with the ship on him early in the season – it wasn’t working (FF production), so I had to cut him and move on. I was the last to leave the party…reluctantly…sadly.
Now, I’m extra enthused to have gotten back in early -- because this is not just a little hot streak he’s been on because of schedule or someone else got hurt and he slipped in – no, this is Curtis Samuel being so good at football he has forced the Panthers to make use of him. He’s forced Teddy to make him his most trusted throw. He’s forced the coaches to use him at tailback anywhere on the field.
Ron Rivera…Norv Turner…couldn’t see it. Had no real plan. Matt Rhule is going to be a great head coach because he’s not the typical idiot head coach that is blind to things working outside of the initial plan – when Rhule saw what Samuel was doing, he gave into it…started planning with/for it. No one has ever done that with Samuel. Credit O-C Joe Brady who should be an NFL head coach any time he wants…because he was talking about Samuel’s pop weeks beforehand – that they needed to get Samuel the ball because things happen. Usually, that’s the kiss of death for a player (when the coaches say things like ‘we gotta get him the ball’…it means they have no real plan to, or they wouldn’t even have to make the statement). But it wasn’t the kiss of death here…it was the breath of life.
Watching the way Curtis Samuel has developed is why I am a lifelong Panthers fan…for now.
Watching how Curtis Samuel has ‘taken’/seized this opportunity has made me a proud papa. This isn’t a blip, that I see…this is real and has room to run from here. I’ve said for years – Samuel is a legit, top NFL WR talent…not just a cute speedster…but a real WR. A tough technician WITH great speed. PLUS, he’s a legit tail back that could handle 5+ carries with his WR work.
The new Carolina regime has figured this out.
Carries + catches in a game in Samuel’s last four games: 9, 7, 8, 10. There’s not many WRs who have their hands on the ball that often, and none where 1-2 of the touches are goal line carries as a tail back.
I’m so happy for Samuel, and so happy for all of us who got back into this ahead of the crowd.
He’s a strong WR2 the rest of the season…I think. I hope. I’m still PTSD that they’ll take this away from him, but from what I see – they aren’t. They are still figuring out all the ways to use him.
-- I’m sure glad they eased Christian McCaffrey (18-69-1, 10-82-1/10) back into the lineup and split him with Mike Davis (1-3-0, 5-34-0/6) in his return game! Hey, the insiders said it was so…can’t we trust them?
Ummm, no…right back to a heavy workload and then some -- 10 targets in this game. You know why he was right back in heavy? Carolina tries to win games with their top players…thus CMC touches the ball 28 times, Samuel 12, Robby 9 times.
Mike Davis had some numbers, but it was later when CMC hurt his shoulder and could play the last few minutes. Otherwise, Davis was in for like a play per series, roughly.
-- Hey, Mike Davis (1-3-0, 5-34-0/6) got more touches in this game than ‘the great’ Le’Veon Bell (4-8-0, 1-0-0/1.
You thought I was delusional sticking by Curtis Samuel all this time…but I think you’re delusional if you thought Bell was going to become the main starter and have Cinderella story finish this season in KC.
Now, you’re stuck. Bell on a bye Week 10…and, what…he’s going to learn the offense more and become the main starter Week 11? You still sticking with that line of thinking? After this game…and all of Bell’s KC games…you don’t have the guts to start Bell Week 11. So, even if you’re right…you won’t use him until Week 12. Good luck with that.
It’s simple math happening here. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (5-14-0, 3-20-1/5) was a fledgling RB2 for KC pre-Bell…and now you split that output into two parts and expect two RB1-2’s?
You got a better shot at that happening with the Tampa Bay duo then the KC duo, but the RoJo-Fournette split is now dying as well.
Indy is running an RBBC. The Patriots always have. The Eagles would like to, but no one is ever healthy. When you get into RBBC’s with two or more healthy RBs – you get nothing but FF pain and angst, like with the Chargers RB rotation the past 3-5 games. RBBC RBs are FF death. Rare RBs left for FF that are talented, play in a good offense, and have no threat from the depth chart for main carry touches. When you get one of those guys you need to hold on.
We also need to include fear of RBs where ‘the mobile QB takes away too much RB goodness’ situations like Buffalo and Baltimore.
You’re stuck holding Bell for the next two weeks…and if another 33% snap count split in Week 11…you’ll be faced with dumping Bell for something more pressing/hopeful.
With CEH…you got the 2/3rds share guy who was an RB2 before…now, is an RB3 with some upside.
Hey…in critical times, I’m seeing Darrell Williams (1-3-0/1) pop up more and more. He looks better/more effective than Bell…who looks old and slow every KC week I’ve seen him. Williams played one less snap than Bell in this game.
-- I finally get a game where Tyreek Hill (9-113-2/18) sees 18 targets…and this is all I get? I mean, Mahomes missed Hill for about 3-4+ more catches and 150+ more yards and 1-2 more TDs in this game. It was on the brink of epic, but all we got was ‘great’.
I found a way to complain about a 30+ point game from my WR…making me a real fantasy owner!!
-- I’m taking my projections up on Teddy Bridgewater (36-49 for 310 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT). I didn’t think he could go to a next level this fast…new offense, strange surroundings, etc., but credit him and credit the Carolina coaches.
Now, can we go back to the 2014 NFL Draft when every analyst said he was a bad prospect because he had a bad Pro Day, because Mike Mayock said he did and then everyone just copied it. The bad press made Teddy fall in the draft…and Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel were taken before him.
Hey, don’t tell me the NFL scouts don’t know their craft better than all of us. I mean the 2014 QB draft was their shining moment (of idiocy). Only seven years later, and we finally discover Teddy WAS the best QB prospect from this draft – better than Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo.
So happy for Teddy…he has earned his moment in the spotlight. And he gets better every week. He’s only 28 years old. He’s got a few more years in him. Carolina will likely draft his replacement in 2021 or 2022.
-- Will CAR DE Brian Burns (3 tackles, 3 QB hits) please stop hitting QBs so much without getting sacks!!! Burns had three games with 3 QB hits registered in his last six games, but only 2.0 sacks to show for it. Eventually, he’s going to start ringing them up.
Also, eventually, the Panthers are going to be a good+ fantasy DST of the future. Why? Because Matt Rhule will make it so. He has a good young base to work with that are also getting better and better each week.
I bet Carolina will be a sneaky DST play discussion Weeks 11-14: DET, at MIN, bye, DEN.
Snap Counts of Interest:
25 = CEH
19 = Le’Veon Bell
18 = Darrell Williams
81 = DJ Moore
69 = Robby
60 = CSam
59 = CMC
26 = Mike D
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Packers 34, 49ers 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The NFL must either be worried about getting these games in on COVID scheduling fears, or they just don’t want to make COVID a storyline…because they pushed this game out there when they had plenty of reason to delay it until Saturday or Sunday or Monday. I’m not saying shutdown the season because someone got COVID, but my first thought was -- they could’ve at least delayed this for the 49ers’ sake. However, the more I’ve thought about it today -- if they try to shuffle everything because of a few cases…then upcoming Sunday’s could be a cluster of rescheduling ahead. This one just happened to happen, timing wise, for teams playing on a Thursday – this unfortunate timing (positives popping up without more days to test out of to see if ‘false’) could’ve easily happened to those playing Sunday.
Instead of a reschedule, we got a game with the COVID I.R. list jam packed for SF…and thus got an inferior product to watch. This wasn’t even a game…it was 34-3 Packers with 6+ minutes left. How it got to 34-17 in the end, I didn’t know on Thursday night because I stopped watching it closely by the 4th-quarter. Rewatching it for study…it was your garden variety garbage time ending.
It’s hardly worth reviewing for FF nuggets because it’s so haphazard a game, but there are things to discuss.
First, the Packers get yet another schedule break. No team has gotten more regular season schedule breaks than the Packers the past two seasons. They faced the 49ers at just the right time…a team that crushed them twice in the 2019 season, this time they got them without half+ of their offensive starting lineup and about half their Week 1 starting defense gone. What was going to be a tough game, may have become their easiest of 2020 due to 49ers’ mass injuries and COVID. The schedule ahead for GB begs them to win a minimum of 12 games this season, with a chance at 13.
The 49ers have been officially wrecked. This was the dagger. All the injuries they have suffered the past two weeks came facing at SEA and GB…how unlucky. Next week they are at NO. The 49ers are likely to finish with 6-7 wins unless they really just start treating the end of the year as a training camp for 2021...then 5-6 wins likely.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- For weeks, the 49ers have not used Jerick McKinnon (12-52-1, 3-16-0/4) much at all…he’s run/barely played behind Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Jeff Wilson and even rookie UDFA RB JaMycal Hasty (4-3-0, 2-10-0/2). In fact, in a crucial game a few weeks ago…when all the SF backs were going down, it was Hasty getting the critical touches to finish out the game.
With Mostert-Coleman-Wilson out, for sure it had to be Hasty getting the shot at a lead role here.
Nope.
When it started out with McKinnon, I was surprised. I assumed they were then going 50/50…but we barely saw Hasty all game. As the game got out of hand quickly, I was like – good, Hasty will mop up and get numbers.
Nope.
McKinnon was taking carries down to the miserable end of this game. The fact that Hasty couldn’t get in some extra work late in a bloodbath beating tells me…I’ve over-assumed Hasty for the SF future. Next season, all these guys could/should be gone (Mostert, Coleman, McKinnon)…and with an obvious spot in this blowout to take a longer look at him, Hasty watched mostly.
Now, we’ll all turn on Hasty…and then he’ll take 30 carries next week. Kyle Shanahan mimics Belichickian ways at RB.
-- Jordan Reed (1-3-0/2) returned with a thud…one catch, just 13 snaps played…that was the risk of his return – he’s been so hurt for so many years, it wasn’t a given he’d just ‘bounceback’ here with Kittle gone.
Ross Dwelley (3-52-0/3) is the clear #1 TE, with Reed as a passing game TE…and maybe not 100% ready to give much to this declining passing game. Dwelley has more experience and offers in-line blocking to this offense.
-- Richie James (9-184-1/13) became the de facto #1 WR here with 9,000 other SF WRs out for this game. Whenever James gets shots, something good tends to happen…he just rarely gets a chance.
In his last three games, where he has had a catch or more in a game (back to 2019), he’s averaging 25.5 yards per catch. He makes things happen, but he’s buried on this roster normally.
The next time the top 4-5-6-7 WR/TE/RB weapons on the 49ers are all out at one time…I’ll try and remember James is the FF play.
-- Davante Adams (10-173-1/12) is always an FF-play. You didn’t need me to tell you that. What I would like to get off my chest is…
What exactly do offensive and defensive coordinators in the NFL do at work every week? Why is it we’re in midseason of 2020 and teams are still single covering Davante Adams, and single covering DK Metcalf AND still playing DK up in his face when that’s certain death for the CB?
Yet, Tyreek Hill has three defenders chasing him all over the field?
-- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2-53-2/4) luckily found 2 TD passes. He’s a joke that won’t be funny or FF-useful the ROS when Allen Lazard is active next week.
-- Nick Mullens (22-35 for 291 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) was garbage until late…for the second week in a row. It’s all he’s got. Superflex players, we could be a week away from C.J. Beathard…who is a better garbage time FF QB, in part because of his rushing skills.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Cracraft
51 = R James
33 = Trent Taylor
42 = McKinnon
15 = Hasty
42 = Dwelley
13 = J Reed
40 = A Jones
22 = Ervin
04 = Dexter W
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8 Game Analysis: Raiders 16, Browns 6
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I saved this one for the last of the week to rewatch/study. Why? The game was played in a crazy wind gust situation which put a damper on all the passing games and made this a conservative heavy run effort. It wasn’t a normal or real FF event, per se.
The Raiders played tougher in the cold…odd to say about a Western team going East to cold/blustery Cleveland, but the Raiders were the tougher squad. The Raiders gritted it out and got the lead and never relented. It shows me again how underrated/good/sound/tough the Raiders are and how sad sack the Browns are. With this weather, the Browns had to take advantage…they didn’t.
Las Vegas is now (4-3) and will be a playoff team…we just don’t know how high a wild card. We still see them with 9-10 wins, and 11 wins possible. They are one of the better teams in the NFL that gets no credit.
The Browns continue to plummet back to earth…now (5-3) and losers of two of their last 3 games. What was thought to be signature wins against Dallas and Indy, were wins against pumped up by the media teams that aren’t very good. The Browns have faced three good teams this year, BAL-PITT-LV…and they have scored 6-7-6 for points in those games. We see 8 wins max. for the Browns right now.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- LV went heavy on Josh Jacobs (31-129-0, 0-0-0/1) in this game, which made sense for the weather and…it’s what the Raiders do. However, 31 carries…and no TDs and no catches. The JJ pain continues.
Since Week 2 (Wks2-8), Jacobs is the #25 RB in PPR PPG in Fantasy…behind David Montgomery, Darrell Henderson, D’Andre Swift, among others. David Johnson, right behind him. It’s just not working well for Fantasy with Jacobs. Lots of touches, not much FF to show for it.
Jacobs has just 2 TDs since Week 2.
He’s posting an anemic 3.6 yards per carry on the season.
He has a low 1.8 yards before contact per rush attempt…when he’s in the game, everyone knows he’s getting the ball, so he’s stacked…he played 48 snaps and carried the ball or saw a target 32 times. 67% odds he’s touching the ball when he’s in.
Devonte Booker (5-29-0, 1-17-0/1) entered the game and looked 2x better, again, and even the TV analysts commented on how good Booker looks. It’s an optical illusion of sorts. Booker does look really good, but the defense changes from ‘stacking’ when Booker is in. They shouldn’t, when Booker is in the game this season (69 snaps), he’s carried the ball or been targeted 33 times.
The Raiders are Jacobs-based so heavily, teams play to that and thus try and make Derek Carr beat them on 1st/2nd-down.
All you can with Jacobs is hope the TDs start to come with all the touches. He’s falling into a buy low because YOU (who don’t have him) just remember the 3 TD game in Week 1 and think he’s great/elite – but his real FF-owner is living in a tortured hell they wish to escape on him.
-- Anyone dropping Nelson Agholor (0-0-0/2) because of this game…it’s short-sighted and you should pickup if it makes sense for your roster, especially non-PPR.
His prior three weeks as a starter: 3.7 rec., (5.0 targets), 72.7 yards, 1.0 TDs per game…as the real #1 for the Raiders. Bryan Edwards’ return isn’t going to change that…Edwards lost his window for 2020. I don’t expect Agholor to be a WR1 or anything, but a solid WR2-3 is realistic for the ROS.
All dome or Cali game events from Week 9 to Week 16 except Week 13 at NYJ.
-- Rashard Higgins (1-14-0/3) got given up on because of this game result too. Again, the weather conditions made this game ‘not real’ or ‘should be ignored’ for FF. Higgins can be a WR3 in PPR with Baker, as his new #1-ish WR.
One of the issues ahead is – the weather for CLE is much worse than compared to what LV/Agholor is getting. Nothing but cold/weather risks ahead for CLE/Higgins except Week 12 at JAX.
-- Trade deadline came and went, and the great David Njoku (1-19-0/3) is still a Brown. Austin Hooper could be back Week 10. All adding up to – the Harrison Bryant (3-25-0/3) blip is likely gone. Came and went.
-- Speaking of that weather for LV, I’ve mentioned it earlier in the week, but Daniel Carlson (3/4 FGs) is kicking in a dome or Cali in seven of the next 8 weeks. According to Yahoo numbers, he’s still available in 59% of leagues.
He’s the #3 PK in FF scoring per game right now.
Notable FFM kickers in scoring per game, by rank…
Koo = #1
Tucker = #2
Lutz = #4
Butker = #16
One of those facts is scary…
Snap Counts of Interest:
39 = Bryant
29 = Njoku
42 = Hunt
06 = D’Ernest
56 = Agholor
54 = Ruggs
15 = Renfrow
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8 Game Analysis: Chiefs 35, Jets 9
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Hopefully, for my fingers/typing, this will be the shortest game recap/report in history…because what is there to say/report on? The best team in football played the absolute worst team in football and the final score reflected just that. I got a couple notes to share, but there is not much on-field reality or trend to glean here…I mean, Chad Henne played a chunk of the game.
The Jets actually put up a fight…they scored three times (all FGs) on their first three drives and played hard, but they’re so undermanned they couldn’t hold off the KC offensive tidal wave. This Jets team from Week 8…they can win a game before years end. They’ve played two very good teams the last two weeks (BUF and KC) and the Jets have fought in those game. I wouldn’t be totally shocked if they didn’t upset the Patriots on MNF this week. I also wouldn’t be shocked if they lost by 20+.
The Chiefs cruised to victory. They toyed with the Jets defense. They are now (7-1) and all eyes turn to Weeks 11-12…at LV for their revenge game but with Week 12 at Tampa Bay lurking, which will be a potential Super Bowl preview, which I’m sure will be mentioned no less than 2.7 billion times that game week and in the Sunday pregame shows.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- One of the things I wanted to see/track here was the Chiefs backfield rotation early, before the game got out of hand. Was Clyde Edwards-Helaire (6-21-0, 3-10-0/3) the clear lead or splitting with Le’Veon Bell (6-7-0, 3-31-0/3) 50/50 or were there signs of Bell taking over?
The first four series, before it was out of hand…here’s who was in at RB by count each series…
1st series: CEH 4, Bell 3…first 4 for CEH, then Bell finished it.
2nd series: CEH 5…all 5.
3rd series: Bell 5, D. Williams 2
4th series: CEH 5, D. Williams 1
Total tally, CEH 14, Bell 8, D. Williams 3
My observation notes…
1) This still looks like a 65/35 split for CEH as the lead. There is no evidence Bell is being pushed but indicators that Reid wants to keep CEH starting, and Bell getting respect/touches as a support option.
2) One or the other could get hot and have the better game at any time.
3) Le’Veon Bell doesn’t look good to my eye. That old spark with Le’Veon, I haven’t seen it. He doesn’t have the juice he used to. Can’t hop around/past tacklers like the old days. His shiftiness is 50% of what it used to be. He’s a ‘C’ grade RB…useful, not embarrassing but I see no signs of old Le’Veon.
4) Darrell Williams (3-19-0, 1-7-0/1) slipped in and out in a minor role and looked better than either CEH or Bell. Not saying that Williams is taking over or anything, just he is playing with urgency while Bell, especially, looks ‘meh’.
I see no reason, so far, to get excited about much with Le’Veon here…it feels like LeSean McCoy 2019 in KC. It sounded good, but the trailers were better than the movie.
-- The Jets RB situation was differently disappointing…
If you predicted Samaje Perine would out rush and out fantasy score his relative La’Mical Perine (8-27-0, 2-6-0/2) in Week 8, then you’re a prophet…because it was true. After L.Perine played heavy last week and looked solid, he was just a rotational option with Frank Gore (10-30-0) this game.
Both lead RBs for the Jets are ineffective for a variety of reasons. You hoped Perine was going to get a more serious workload here and maybe rise a bit from there…not so fast. Who knows when or if it will happen? I really don’t care because Perine is a weak talent on a weak offense.
Ty Johnson (3-15-0, 1-6-0/1) is their best spark at RB, but I know this…the Jets have zero interest in seeing something like Ty through in an (0-8) season. They need to see more Gore, to see if that kid will work out to be their back of the future.
Johnson took most of his work at the very end in the merciful end of game series to get the game over with.
-- Denzel Mims (2-42-0/3) showed some tiny baby steps forward in this game. He still looks like a freshman in the first week of high school, lost/tentative (but so did Justin Jefferson early on), but early in this game Darnold was tossing jump balls his way and Mims got one, master of high point catches that he is. Mims had two catches pretty quickly into the game…and then none the rest of the way…thus, the problem with getting too excited about Mims or any non-Crowder here.
-- Another solid performance for the Chiefs-DST, as expected. You hoped for a bit more FF scoring, but in 2020…this was good enough.
The Chiefs-DST is #6 in FF PPG so far this season (FPros scoring).
When I pitched them as a savior DST after people started quitting them after Week 2 when Justin Herbert did well against them in his debut (none of us knew Herbert was ‘that guy’ yet) and seeing them dropped due to having to face the Ravens Week 3 – I wanted everyone to try and claim them and pair with the Dolphins-DST ahead as a great DST combo.
Since Week 3, when several of us started the KC-MIA plan, the Dolphins are the #1 PPG DST in fantasy…and the Chiefs #3.
Let’s check in on the plan going forward...
Week 9 KC v. CAR is solid…better than MIA at ARI.
Week 10 is still an issue due to the COVID schedule change. KC is on a BYE. MIA now faces LAC. You need another DST, I think.
You could drop KC-DST after this week if desired/urgent because Weeks 10-12 you have BYE, at LV, at TB. Not great for three weeks. Meanwhile, Miami has at DEN, at NYJ Weeks 11-12…so that is worth holding for if you can.
The perfect scenario is to find a 3rd DST for Week 10 and keep holding KC-MIA if you can pull off three DST for a moment. Here’s the perfect scenario…
Week 9 = KC v. CAR
Week 10 = ‘other’…DET hosting WSH? GB hosting JAX? PHI v NYG, either one? LV v. DEN? OR…just roll MIA v. LAC, and pray…and then have the following the next 6 weeks…
Week 11 = MIA at DEN
Week 12 = MIA at NYJ
Week 13 = KC v. DEN
Week 14 = KC at MIA
Week 15 = MIA v. NE
Week 16 = KC v. ATL (if this game matters for KC)
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = CEH
17 = Bell
08 = D. Williams
55 = Mims
48 = Berrios
48 = J Smith
13 = V Smith
28 = Perine
20 = Gore
06 = Ty Johnson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8 Game Analysis: Saints 26, Bears 23 OT
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The weather was ripe for a Bears upset…cold and windy, an anti-Brees/Saints type of weather. Chicago didn’t look great but led 13-10 at the half. The Saints took a strong lead early 4th-quarter, 23-13, and then the Bears scrambled back to tie it on a 51-yard FG with 0:18 left in the game…and off to OT.
13+ minutes of OT later, the Saints got into FG range and hit the easy game winner…sneaking out of Chicago with a 26-23 win. It wasn’t a masterpiece by either team but credit the Saints…they find a way to win these types of games.
The Saints are now (5-2) and head to Tampa for a huge road game for control of the NFC South vs. the Bucs. The Saints have a cake schedule the rest of the way, pretty much, so win or lose Week 9…they’re going to the playoffs one way or the other. We project the Saints to lose Week 9 and finish with 9-10 wins…maybe 11 wins max. A top NFC wild card player.
The Bears kinda deserved to lose, in a sense that they’re not very good…they are now (5-3)…a win here would have brought them to (6-2) and would have been an injustice to a 75% win-rate. This was a serious blow to the Bears’ playoff chances. We see them getting 8-9 wins in the end, with a shot to steal a playoff spot. They would have been in great shape for a wild card with a win here, but now they’re going to have to scramble and scuffle to get there. They might have 5-6-7 cold weather games from Week 10 on to help them…Chicago Bears type weather.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I don’t know why the following is important to me, but it kinda just jumped out at me…
The Saints aren’t very good on defense…and there is no ‘turn’ coming. Marshon Lattimore is having his worst season in the NFL (he may be secretly hurt; he was really hurt earlier in the year). Lattimore used to be a shutdown now the QB rating against him is 109.0 with 62.2% of passes at him being completed.
Allen Robinson (6-87-1/7) having a normal good game for himself plus Nick Foles hitting on 28 of 41 passes for 272 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, and leading the comeback late…in the cold and win…that’s not like the Saints defense to allow such things. They haven’t been good all year, and you thought maybe with a BYE week to prepare and heal they might turn upward like they usually do as the season wears on…but, nope.
They may be about to run into a buzzsaw Week 9 at Tampa Bay.
The potentially cold/non-passer friendly weather from Week 10 on…not great for ARob’s upside, but hard to make such calls so far in advance.
-- Part two of just how bad the Saints defense has become…
Anthony Miller (8-73-0/11) and Darnell Mooney (5-69-1/6) put up big games as well. Usually, the Bears feed ARob and everyone else gets scraps and it’s painful to watch them try to get anything to Mooney or Miller in games, but in this game…no problemo.
By passer rating, the Saints are the 4th worst pass defense in the NFL…a blip from being #2 to only the Texans. Something is wrong with the Saints defense.
…and it’s not the beginning of a breakout for Anthony Miller.
-- After a very quiet season for a (very high priced) special weapon they’ve barely used, Taysom Hill (5-35-0, 2-30-1/2) ran the ball a season high 5 times, for a season high 35 yards. He also caught his first TD pass of the year (after catching 6 last season).
Just noting…
Last year, Hill was lightly used then once he caught some fire and he was productive for several weeks late last year. Not saying it will happen now…but just noting it.
Also, if Brees is having some issues…what better way to take some stress off than more Hill work at QB in-game? And this week against the Bucs, Sean Payton needs to throw all he’s got at them…and Hill is usually the X-factor guy.
-- The other Saints TE…Jared Cook (5-51-1/7) has caught 4 TDs in his last 5 regular games. Which makes 13 TDs in his last 16 games as a Saint.
In his last 16 regular season games, Travis Kelce has 12 TDs.
George Kittle’s last 16 games…6 TDs.
Don’t go by all this too fast. Stop and think of that…it’s almost like it’s an error/typo. I know it feels like it because (if) you have Cook – you still think you have issues at TE, right?
-- In Saints SAF Chauncey Gardner-Johnson’s (9 tackles, 2 TFLs) last five games he’s averaged 5.5 tackles per game as he settles in as the Saints starting safety.
Saints DE Marcus Davenport (4 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 2 QB hits) has been back for three games this season, and he has at least one QB hit in every game…5 QB hits total.
-- We are seeing the Saints-DST is weak, but what about the Bears?
I’ve been suspect of just how good they are too. They’ve been strong early in the season…but the schedule has been a bit flimsy. The last two weeks, the Rams and Saints have had little issue with them.
In the cold and wind, they allowed Brees to throw for 75%+ completions, 280 yards, 2 TDs with no picks…and the Saints ran for 122 yards here.
Snap Counts of Interest:
68 = ARob
65 = Mooney
53 = Miller
64 = Juwan Johnson
58 = Tre’Quan Smith
39 = Deonte Harris
40 = JCook
16 = Trautman
14 = Taysom
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8 Game Analysis: Bengals 31, Titans 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was not a fluke…the Bengals, yes…the Bengals, outplayed the Tennessee Titans. Honestly, this is 90% Joe Burrow…his talent, plus the team has an almost college atmosphere they’re playing with because of faith in Burrow. The Bengals aren’t very good, but they’re becoming ‘on any given Sunday…’ threats against decent or lesser teams. They can’t beat the big boys, but they can hang with everyone else…and beat them.
…which means the Titans are just a decent team. This should’ve been a game the Titans bagged easily, if they were a powerhouse, which they are not. 218 yards rushing by the Titans…and they lose by 10 points? How bad is this Titans defense? The Bengals converted 10-of-15 on 3rd-downs, that’s ridiculous…minus Joe Mixon and missing key O-Linemen on top of everything else.
Tennessee is now (5-2), losers of two in-a-row and lucky they aren’t losers of seven of their 8 games this year. They could be headed for a real tailspin here, but they do have two games with AFC South foe Indianapolis in their next 4 games – that will likely determine who is the AFC South favorite ahead. We see Tennessee winning 9 games due to a soft schedule but ending up at 8 wins is on the table…as is 10 wins. Another (9-7) could be on the way for this team.
Cincy is now (2-5-1) and had a chance to be (4-3) at this stage. They are a .500 type team with Burrow. The schedule isn’t too bad ahead, except two games with the Steelers plus one with the Ravens. They might steal one of those Steelers games. Still, we see 4-5 wins at the most for this squad at this stage.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- This was a subtle masterpiece by Joe Burrow (26-37 for 249 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) considering he was missing two key OLs and Joe Mixon. Like Justin Herbert, no amount of O-Line degradation seems to phase them. It’s surreal from Burrow and Herbert as rookies.
Giving Burrow even more weaponry is the emergence of Auden Tate (7-65-0/7). He put on an absolute show in this game. I don’t know if there will be follow through on this, because the Bengals would never bench A.J. Green (2-19-0/5), when really they should just cut him and let him sign with a contender -- but they won’t so Tate can only be a 50% snaps guy (played 46% here). In his limited time in this game, Tate was unreal making a few circus catches. He’s like Tee Higgins (6-78-0/9)…only taller/bigger -- not speedsters, but have great catch radius and good-to-great hands.
Remember, last year when Tate emerged as a WR2.5 for a stretch for Cincy with Finley/Dalton?
The trio of Higgins-Boyd-Tate can put on a show.
-- Not helping Burrow…Drew Sample (0-0-0/1). Sample is playing a heavy majority of the snaps, but he’s a tugboat TE that can’t get open on his own. He can make some plays if lost/forgotten in coverage but there is no emergence story here at all.
-- Jonnu Smith (2-29-0/2) is the exponentially better TE than Sample, but the Titans are back to forgetting about him. After a top five TE1 start to the season, Smith has plummeted. In his last three games, he’s averaged 1.3 rec. (2.7 targets), 17.0 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game.
You want to have faith or think ‘maybe he’s hurt’ but we’ve seen this for two years now…the Titans just don’t make Jonnu a priority weapon. A guy with his talent…7 games played this season, and he’s been at/under 40 yards in a game in five of the 7 games. Unconscionable.
Remember all the cool, successful running plays with Jonnu last year? Same coaches this year…no rushing attempts yet.
He’s a TE1 threat each week…but a random one.
-- The Bengals spent millions on Joe Mixon, and yet the duo of Gio Bernard (15-62-1, 3-16-1/4) and Samaje Perine (10-32-1, 1-2-0/1) did just fine in taking down the Titans. Why NFL teams continue to plow money into RBs is beyond me.
Congrats to Perine for getting another chance, small as it was and likely never to occur again. He looked fine. Played solidly. Could be a power part of an RB-duo, but never will be.
-- But the off-the-beaten-path RB that I’m REALLY excited about here (because my life is pretty sad, apparently) is the rebirth of D’Onta Foreman (5-37-0).
A bunch of Foreman notes…
1) Was a 3rd-round draft pick of the Texans in 2017, and everyone was high on this 6’2”/233 powerhouse RB out of U. of Texas.
2) Mike Vrabel was in Houston when D’Onta was there.
3) In 2017, Foreman flashed as a rookie but ended up on I.R with a season-ending injury. In 2018, still had issues and may have been out of shape. In 2019, the Texans ultimately, abruptly dumped him after a promising career start/projection. The Colts picked him up off waivers 2019 and dumped him before the season and Foreman went unclaimed. In 2020, the Titans added Foreman to the practice squad, and they just elevated him for this game – but on top of his COVID practice squad rules activation last week they are now putting him in ‘protective status’ on the practice squad so he isn’t stolen/claimed away. Why?
4) Foreman looks the best, physically, I’ve seen him in the NFL. If you looked quick, you’d think it was Derrick Henry in the backfield (they are similar height and in range on weight). Foreman looked good and played really well here in his few relief carries in-game, not in any garbage moments.
I don’t want to get too fanboy, but I think Foreman is the most likely Derrick Henry handcuff now…not McNichols or Evans. It would probably be a McNichols-Foreman split, if it were to happen next week…but Foreman would be the horse you’d want.
Foreman is only 24.5 years old…he’s still got life. I’m adding him to the next round of the Dynasty Stash reports!!
-- Corey Davis (8-128-1/10) had a big game, as I (and many) suspected…because facing Cincy is a gift to #2-3 WRs, and #1’s typically. But #2-3’s can thrive because Cincy has such garbage CBs after Will Jackson.
I note this because you should try to sell Davis hot ASAP, if you can find a believer in his old draft stock/status (and thus they see this as ‘coming into his own’). This was a Cincy blip. Now, he has CHI-IND-BAL-IND the next 4 weeks…not as fruitful for a very average/generically good WR in a mediocre passer output offense.
-- I keep point out, the past few weeks, that the Titans-DST as having some potential ahead because of the schedule…Foles-Rivers-Lamar-Rivers-Baker-Luton the next 6 weeks is a festival of high turnover QBs to face, BUT…BUT…the Titans may be so horrific on defense it doesn’t matter.
The Titans-DST is only for the desperate/faint of heart.
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = Henry
22 = McNichols
06 = Foreman
47 = Gio
24 = Perine
62 = AJ Green
57 = Tee H
55 = Boyd
33 = Tate
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8 Game Analysis: Bills 24, Patriots 21
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Another messy game in the wet (light rain prior, and some during) for Buffalo, and it wasn’t pretty -- but they found a way to win.
This was a fun rewatch, and old-fashioned bare-knuckle fight of a game to the finish. The wet and (light, intermittent) rainy and windy conditions played a factor and the teams played to it…less than 180 yards passing for each team, but 30+ rushing attempts and 180+ rushing yards for both teams. 328 yards passing total in the game, 378 yards rushing. It was that kind of game.
Some will remember/critique this game as…well, the Patriots were gonna win but Cam fumbled the ball in the red zone late and blew the game. A lucky fumble saved the Bills…the wet conditions saved the day. That might be true in a sense, but that negates the drive right before where Josh Allen gutted up once again and answered the Pats just having tied it up 21-21 with 9+ minutes left – Allen answered with a 5+ minute meticulous drive down to the red zone and on 3rd & goal, Allen moved out of the pocket and threw the ball to a wide open Gabriel Davis for what would have been a 7 point lead…but the ball hit Davis in the hands and it clanked off his grab attempt for an incompletion, and thus having to settle for a field goal with 4+ minutes left…and then the Pats drove down the field for a possible win but the Cam fumble ended the dream.
The Bills didn’t dominate in this game like I thought they would, but with both teams playing to the conditions and duking it out…it was Allen who was the difference all throughout. Both teams ran all over each other, but Allen made more plays and set up more things and was the edge.
The Bills go to a hard fought (6-2) and open up a near insurmountable 3.5 game AFC East lead over (2-5) New England. Miami is more of a threat to Buffalo than the Patriots now. Buffalo is a top 5-6 team in the league and is going to finish with 10-11+ wins and claim the AFC East title.
The Patriots are clinging to playoff life…and they should jump up to (3-5) beating NYJ Week 9 and then have a very tough/too tough stretch to finish out. They will finish between 4-6 wins. I would be shocked if they even made a run at .500 much less the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Is Zack Moss (14-81-2, 0-0-0/1) ‘the man’ now? I don’t think so. But he is definitely in a full split with Devin Singletary (14-86-0, 1-6-0/1). Moss had a couple nice runs early, but Singletary was still the more trusted in key spots with Moss coming in behind that…but it is going to be 50/50-ish ahead. There will not be a Moss 80%+ share and suddenly becomes ‘the guy’ as Singletary watches from the bench. It’s 50-50 +/-, and 100% of the Bills' run game has been weak all year, so a 50/50 split of crap…is still crap.
However, because Moss is a rookie and because he scored 2 TDs in a game…and because all preseason analysts were in love with themselves talking about Moss as better than Singletary – their narrative just came true. The train is leaving the station. I see a weak split role situation for Moss…THEY see a possible RB1 hostile takeover because Moss is such a talent to them. It’s a good time to sell him hot.
Talent isn’t the argument, but Moss is a perfectly fine ‘C’ talent – working on a team that doesn’t feature the RB, where the QB will lead the team in rushing TDs (and probably rushing yards), and is left splitting with a more experienced, talented in his own right RB (Singletary). I wouldn’t be that excited on Moss if Singletary got hurt and was gone the rest of the year, but it would be an RB2-2.5 hopeful at that point.
Both guys ran the ball well here, successfully against the #26 run defense (by rush yds per game) in the NFL, in the wet conditions Sunday…but one of them scored 2 TDs (and I think Moss surprised the Pats D when he did get touches/they didn’t pay him much mind at first) and the other RB didn’t get any TDs. Next week it could be the reverse. Likely the TD count for both in games ahead will be = 0.0.
To me, they are both Flex starters at best. When Moss goes with a stat line like (8-35-0, 1-3-0/1) next week…back down a well his value will fall. How much you hated Singletary’s 2020 output so far…well, now Moss is going to earn more of a split of that as the bigger/thicker runner to RBBC with. How good could it be splitting garbage for FF?
-- I’d rather have Damien Harris (16-102-1) than Moss or Singletary.
Harris has 4 NFL starts, and two 100+ yard games.
Comparing Harris to the BUFF boys…
4.1 yards per carry (2020), and 1.3 yards before contact (a quasi-measure of blocking/space to run…2.0+ is the hope) = Singletary
4.3 yards per carry (43 carries), 2.2 yards before contact = Moss
5.7 yards per carry (49 carries), 3.8 yards before contact = Dam. Harris
Harris is the clear #1 right now, but two issues…
1) When does Sony Michel return, and how much would he then make the NE situation like the BUF situation? I fear it will be similar to Buffalo’s RB split…right down to the QB who wants to run all the time/take all the rush TDs.
Harris is already playing less snaps than White and Rex in games in general as it is (for right now, could change as Harris grows).
2) Harris has 2 catches on 2 targets in his 4 games this season…he’s not involved in the passing game (but he is a good receiver, just not being tapped for it). *In his last 4 games, Moss has 3 catches on 4 targets, for comparison.
All of these RBs we’re discussing from this game could be rando Flex RB3s splitting by design because their coaches are smart. I’m willing to sell any of them off a hot output game, but Harris is in the best position of all of them right now…but it’s not a super-strong one.
You’d think Harris rushing for two 100+ yard games would light up FF owners, but all they are talking about is Moss…because magical unicorn rookies rule!! Boring old 2nd-year RBs emerging = yaaawwwn.
Damien Harris is as talented, possibly better than his Alabama teammate Josh Jacobs. He was better than Jacobs in college…and he is starting to show it in the pros. How many 100+ yard rushing games does Jacobs have this year, compared to Harris’s having two in 4 games? One 100+ yard rushing game for Jacobs this season in 7 games.
In Jacobs first 4 NFL games…zero 100+ yard rushing games.
Why aren’t people more excited about Harris? Because they sense he’s stuck in the Belichick RBBC hell…but he might not be as we go. He’s emerging as their real, best offensive weapon.
-- Last week, I thought/promoted the idea that Jakobi Meyers (6-58-0/10) was the new #1 WR for the Patriots…and this game confirmed it.
Solid game from Meyers and he had two other catches for 31 yards called back on penalties elsewhere. He’s ‘the guy’ for a depleted, weak Patriots WR group. He’s better than Isaiah Ford…new Patriots acquisition WR that will really change the team’s fortunes (not).
It will probably be Meyers, then Byrd, then Ford to the finish for NE WR targeting…in a horrid passing game, so Meyers is a WR2.5-3.0 in PPR.
-- As soon as I get excited about John Brown (1-21-0/2), he goes M.I.A. with injuries and games with one catch. When I hate him, he gets 5-6 catches for 110 yards and a TD and I get mad as he is on the opposite FF team. I tried to buy him low and then he got re-injured and then playing rain games and makes me look like an idiot. I’ll have my day, probably starting this week vs. SEA.
Josh Allen (11-18 for 154 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 10-23-1) the same…I get the hype train going and he starts fading for FF the past few weeks. Again, the last three weeks have been different levels of rain games, and low passer output for all involved. A season low 18 passes and 11 completions here. It’s not because he’s lost it…the heavy run game worked, for the first time all season for the Bills, and Allen’s numbers were down off it. Easy TD to win the game late and the WR gaffed it.
I’m still all-in on Allen and buying all I can as the price fades to him as a fringe QB1 for some weak-minded holders, of which there are a lot of them. You can’t get Mahomes, Herbert, Wilson reasonably but you CAN get Allen pretty easily these days. I just named the four best QBs in fantasy, in the NFL, in my opinion. Rodgers 5th…maybe should be in the top 4 discussion but all the other guys run the ball to give extra FF-juice.
Snap Counts of Interest:
31 = Moss
28 = Singletary
53 = Diggs
47 = Brown
36 = Beasley
35 = GDavis
65 = Byrd
64 = Meyers
42 = Olszewski
32 = Rex
31 = White
20 = Harris
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8 Game Analysis: Colts 41, Lions 21
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game wasn’t pretty, but the Colts got hold of the lead and just never let it go. 20-7 Indy at the half, 35-14 Indy early in the 4th-quarter. The Lions cut it to two scores/35-21 with 12+ minutes left, but the Colts scored again and then held down Detroit from there -- ending 41-21 Colts.
Detroit just always looks erratic to me. Nothing seems smooth, but they aren’t bad…just not good. They can move the ball at times at their own will, but then quickly they look like they can’t even complete a pass a series later. You never know what you’re going to get with them. Indy didn’t look amazing, but was better than Detroit throughout, better on defense and smarter on offense.
The Colts are hitting a tough schedule stretch…BAL, at TEN on TNF, GB, TEN the next 4 weeks. If they come out that stretch with two wins then they should finish with 9-10 wins and compete with the Titans for the AFC South title. If they only win one of those next 4 games…they look more like an 8-9 win team.
If you think I’m being too down or weird on Indy, consider this…the Colts have played only ONE team with a winning record, and that was Cleveland…and they got whacked by them. We don’t know how good the Colts are. Now they face a real test Week 9…and I think they are going to get utterly destroyed by the Ravens this week. I’ll wait to see the COVID effect on the Ravens, but the Ravens -2.5 over Indy this week may be the best bet of the 2020 season.
The Lions fall to (3-4), because they are not a ‘winning’ team and we project them to finish with 5-6 wins in the end. They’re a fraud.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- How come Jonathan Taylor (11-22-0, 2-9-0/2) is not as good as I said he was going to be? I’m not sure. Everything aesthetically looks fine. He’s moving well. My notes most every game on him are – it looks like the defense knows every time he’s running the ball.
Here’s the FF-problem that I see…
I’m going to list, in order, the running back who was in the game on every play of the first two series…and tell me you spot the Jon Taylor issue?
1st-Series:
Taylor
Wilkins
Taylor
Hines
Taylor
2nd-Series
Taylor
Hines/Wilkins
Taylor
Hines
Wilkins
Taylor
Taylor
The first 12 plays, i.e. the game plan…Taylor in 7 times, Hines in 3.5 times, Wilkins in 2.5 times.
You see the issue, the pattern? Taylor is barely ever in for two plays in a row. Jordan Wilkins (20-89-1, 1-24-0/1) was in on the second play of the game. Frank Reich is committed to an RBBC. Taylor is the lead of this, but it’s a flimsy lead that can get taken away…like it did in this game. Wilkins was running better (and defenses don’t stack when they see him in) and thus he started getting more touches. Sometimes the game situation calls for more Nyheim Hines (5-8-0, 3-54-2/5) in the passing game. It’s smart for the NFL, maddening for FF.
The window of opportunity for a huge FF breakout is closing because Frank Reich has his hand on the window frame and is pushing down – he’s not committed to a full dose of Taylor in all phases yet. As long as that is true, and it may be true for now (2020) and forever (2021+) because of the coach’s desire/plan, and then Taylor can only produce so much.
The Taylor as an RB1 hope in 2020 once Marlon Mack went down theory…it has become sketchy RB2, getting a Darrell Henderson-like treatment.
-- Just a note on the RBs on the other side of this, with Detroit…
Jamal Agnew led the Lions in rushing with his one carry for 11 yards, D’Andre Swift ran the ball 6 times for a yard. Part of that is the Lions aren’t great running the ball. The other part is – the Colts are the #2 run defense in the league vying for #1 with Tampa Bay.
J.K. Dobbins (and Gus) get another tough task.
The potential, however, is the Colts defense could be a bit of a fraud because they’ve faced some really bad run games and O-Lines a lot this year.
-- Speaking of the Colts-DST…
I know they are scoring well/ranked highly YTD in results so far, but as I pointed out last week – most of that is coming from their two D-TD crush game vs. the Jets. And they’ve played a soft/fortunate schedule overall. Now they play real QBs/offenses the next 8 weeks. I think this DST is going to take a hit and not rise up or hold their lofty status.
-- Speaking of the Colts-DST part II…
Xavier Rhodes (3 tackles) is starting to get ‘shut downy’ again. He handled Kenny Golladay (0-0-0/4) before KG’s injury.
For the season, Rhodes has allowed 46.2% completions on passes his way and QBs have a QB rating of just 65.9% against him in 2020. A nice improvement from 2019 in Minnesota, when it looked like he was dead.
-- Speaking of Golladay…he’ll be out for a few weeks, maybe longer. The WR who stepped up in this game, in his place was Marvin Hall (4-113-0/7), his big numbers coming in large part of a 73-yard, underthrown bomb Hall adjusted to before the CB could.
Hall has been making plays in limited playing time for two years now. He’s 5’9”/192 and ran a 4.40 40-time, a 6.86 three-cone, with a 40” vertical at his Pro Day out of the University of Washington. He was an underwhelming performer in college but has grinded his way to the NFL.
Someday they’ll let him throw a pass maybe…in college he was 3-of-3 passing for 91 yards and 2 TDs in college. His passer rating was 574.8. I think that warrants one trick play in the playbook.
I think we can trust that NFL O-C’s know all the capabilities of all their players and would never not look/explore things they have been good at in the past…they wouldn’t just stick to their stupid playbook and be blind to their player’s extra capabilities, right?
-- Colts’ WR news…
Michael Pittman (1-6-0/1) returned and played 58% of the snaps and was totally irrelevant. Philip Rivers is awful…I don’t care that he threw 3 TDs in this game. He looks/is passing terrible…it’s a blight on the Lions for allowing it. Pittman can’t matter with Rivers at QB.
Marcus Johnson (2-39-0/4) still looks like, to me, Rivers’ main guy right now…main WR. Rivers throws to RBs and TEs more, but when it goes downfield it’s Marcus Johnson likely on the other end right now. T.Y. Hilton died and went to WR heaven…and it’s Rivers’ that helped kill him off, plus TYH just looks like he’s lost some of his fastball too.
Snap Counts of Interest:
60 = M Hall
42 = Hall
41 = Amendola
18 = Golladay
38 = Swift
12 = AP
11 = Kerryon
58 = Pascal
48 = Marcus J
45 = Pittman
09 = Dulin
45 = Doyle
39 = Burton
32 = Alie-Cox
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8 Game Analysis: Vikings 28, Packers 22
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Who saw this coming? Not, I.
I just assumed the Packers would continue their Matt LaFleur dominance over Mike Zimmer…over a Vikings team that started selling pieces off and making other pieces available in trade. It didn’t turn out anything like that.
It started out that way… The Packers took a quick 7-0 lead like it was nothing, but the Vikings answered with the first of four Dalvin Cook TDs. In the Davante Adams v. Dalvin Cook show, Adams then caught his 2nd TD pass to make it 14-7 GB. Then Cook scored his 2nd TD to tie the game at the half. Cook scored again, his 3rd TD, in the 3rd-quarter (21-14 lead MIN). Soon after, Cook scored again…his 4th and final TD. Adams scored his 3rd TD late…too little too late. Vikings with the 28-22 upset.
The Packers fall to (5-2), but their schedule ahead is a virtual cupcake – they don’t have any top NFL powers left on their schedule. As tough as it gets for them is at Indy Week 11 or Week 16 hosting Tennessee.
Minnesota fancies themselves as ‘back in it’ at (2-5). With the expanded playoff format…who knows? They play five winnable games the next five weeks. If they could go (4-1) in that stretch then maybe but more likely the Vikings finish (7-9), (8-8) at best.
From a fantasy perspective, there’s not much to talk about in this game. It really was Dalvin v. Davante, everything else took its natural backseat to them. They scored all the game’s TDs. When Mike Zimmer can run the ball, that’s all he’ll do…and his WRs get burned for FF by it 2-3-4 times a season. This was one of them.
My game notes are more around things not in-game based.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Just to put a bow on the Dalvin Cook show…
The Vikings had 48 offensive plays (rush or pass) and 37 of them went to RBs, and most of that to Cook. So, you can fault Adam Thielen (3-27-0/4) or Justin Jefferson (3-26-0/4) for their lowly FF-performances. It was the game script.
This game, there two WRs ‘bad’ FF game is a minor ‘teaching moment’…
If you don’t own either of these guys, you hold them in very HIGH regard…as you remember all the great games they’ve had this season. You wish you had them today, because they are FOR SURE better than whatever WR you started this week that let you down. When you don’t own a player for FF…you don’t live and die (mostly die) with their every moment…you only remember their great FF moments. You don’t feel any angst towards Adam or JJ today if you don’t own them. They are the perfect ‘everyone else’s kids are doing everything better than mine’ or ‘everyone else’s house is nicer or cleaner than mine’ players/mindsets to beat yourself up over painting a false feelings picture.
On the other hand, if you own one of these guys – you’re furious with this disappointing week. How could they let you down AGAIN, just when you needed them to win this week? You wonder if Mike Zimmer is going to do this the rest of 2020 – just run Cook all day and ignore the passing game. It might be time to sell one of them for ____ WR who had a great week this week so you can ‘sell high’ on your guys and find sweet mental relief somewhere else. Maybe this is the end of the hot run on Jefferson, and you’re hatching a plan (in the prison of your mind) on the perfect moment to sell JJ at the absolute peak of his existence.
WRs, or any RB-WR-TE in FF spare about 3-4 of them, have up and down outputs all season and it doesn’t mean they stink or you’ll know when to time it in and out of the lineup. Everyone else’s WRs are not all better than yours…you are just too close to the situation to judge it fairly. Those emotions are going to kill you playing this game.
-- Irv Smith (1-16-0/1), same thing…if Cook/the RBs are getting all the work then the TEs are screwed too (for FF).
But I did want to mention – Kyle Rudolph (1-12-0/1) was not traded by the deadline, so Irv is stuck being a random event in PPR week-to-week. Not a great outlook with Irv the ROS with Rudolph, but there’s also not much out there at TE for those in need…but Smith is becoming a very low option among the TE PPR desperation options.
-- A.J. Dillon (5-21-0, 1-16-0/1) has COVID, and he’s out for Week 9.
Jamaal Williams (16-75-0, 6-27-0/6) was in close contact with Dillon, so he’s very likely out for TNF by the rules of how many positive tests needed to get cleared…and playing on TNF couldn’t come at a worse time for him.
Aaron Jones (DNP) is hurt, and like misses Week 9 TNF as well.
All three of the main GB RBs out leaves us with (if the game is not moved):
Scatback RB/WR Tyler Irvin (1-7-0/3) or Practice Squad RB Dexter Williams.
Williams is the more ‘legit’ RB to take normal RB carries, but he cannot catch passes well. He’ll probably see 10-15 carries and 1 target, maybe…and be the goal line option that they may not even use (give the ball to) near the goal line.
Ervin is a 185-pound homerun hitter…a guy who would be a split role back with Williams. Ervin would see the passing game and might get a good 5-8 carries with 2-5 targets this week. The more exciting, one play hit FF option is Ervin. The steady getting decent touches but might not do anything with them guy is Williams.
-- Robert Tonyan (5-79-0/7) continues to establish himself as the guy Aaron Rodgers is trusting more and more. It’s a good thing. However, his outlook takes a hit when Allen Lazard returns to action, likely this week.
Lazard will be Rodgers’s #2 option upon return, but that’s usually erratic/disappointing when Davante is available…but he should be a steady WR2-2.5 who will probably score a TD every other game on average, maybe 8-10 TDs per 16-game season type pace. He’s also a great ‘cuff of sorts for Davante Adams’ owners. If Adams goes down…Lazard has WR1 upside – as we’ve already seen.
Green Bay not bringing in Will Fuller or anyone else at the trade deadline is a positive for Lazard’s projections ahead.
Snap Counts of Interest:
46 = Tonyan
28 = Sternberger
64 = Jam Williams
20 = Ervin
10 = AJ Dillon
41 = Irv Smith
39 = K Rudolph
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 8 Game Analysis: Eagles 23, Cowboys 9
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Considering how poorly the Dallas Cowboys have been playing, and them needing to start Ben DiNucci this game as an emergency starter – you figured the Eagles should win this game, at home, on Sunday Night Football, resoundingly. They didn’t.
Dallas led 9-7 at the half. It was a one score game (15-9 PHI) with 4 minutes left when a fumble occurred for Dallas, Philly landed on it, but while rolling around the ball was stripped from a Philly recoverer and then scooped and scored by another Philly defender. It seemed like it should have been a ‘down by contact’ play but it turned into a defensive score that gave the Eagles the two-score cushion they needed and DiNucci tried to catch up in the end but he failed.
The Eagles take a ‘commanding’ lead of the NFC East at (3-4-1) with Dallas falling to (2-6) and showing to be too injured and dysfunctional to be a threat.
Dallas might get to 3-4 wins in the end. Maybe five wins if Andy Dalton gets hot.
It’s not all-clear for the Eagles yet. If they lose to NYG Week 10, they could be in a dogfight with the Giants and the Football Team, and even Dallas is still kinda alive, at that point. On top of the Week 10 Giants game, the schedule gets rugged Weeks 12-15. If Philly wins Week 10, they probably are a lock to finish as the NFC East champs with 6-7 wins.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Eagles got a bunch of players back Week 8, and it was the first time we got to see them working together.
Two situations to hit on with these returning players…
1) Dallas Goedert (1-15-0/1) returned after several weeks out, and with Zach Ertz on I.R./out, which was supposed to be all of our hopes and dreams with Goedert…and yet it resulted in one target in a game that he played 84% of the snaps in and ran a lot of routes against a team that struggles covering the TE. Not good. Not good at all. But it’s one game. Let’s see how this plays out.
The problem also is…BYE Week 9 and then Ertz is set to return Week 11 (maybe). You might get one more week of FF play with Goedert free of Ertz to see. For the rest of the season, after Week 10, you get Ertz-Goedert working with erratic Carson Wentz output – it’s possible what you think you have with Goedert is potentially a mirage. If Ertz stays out longer, then a little more hope.
2) I thought Jalen Reagor (3-16-1/6) absolutely looked like Wentz’s favorite throw in this game. He went to Reagor right off the bat. Wentz was going to Reagor with purpose. He all but ignored Goedert by comparison.
Travis Fulgham (6-78-1/7) was quiet until the middle of the game. It just looked to me like there was ‘something’ between Wentz-Reagor more than any of the other guys…but Fulgham still trusted too. The Wentz-Reagor connection has been showing signs since Weeks 1-2, then Reagor got hurt and missed several weeks. He jumped right back into it this game.
Additionally, I want to note that Reagor looked terrific on tape. Really confident, moving quickly…he just had that on-field ‘look’ of the #1 for this team. Maybe it was a one-off, but we’ll see if he follows it up. I was very impressed with what I saw in this return game. We all see how fast rookie WRs are just blowing up right away in the league...Reagor is trying to get into that conversation.
-- Carson Wentz (15-27 for 123 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs, 4-17-0) is playing some erratic football. He’d been hot of late, but this game was a step back. It seems like Wentz struggles when the game is a back-and-forth, but then he’s great when he’s way down and throwing against softer defenses late in deficits trying to scramble back into games. I can’t figure him out. He’s been a warrior at times considering all the O-Line injuries and WR/TE injuries…you have to give him a lot of credit, but when he has an expected upper hand (like this game)…and his weapons starting to come back here…facing a collapsing defense – Wentz looked as bad as ever.
For fantasy, for him and the WRs/TEs – you want him down by two scores quickly and then scrambling back all game. You don’t want ‘in the lead’ Wentz for FF.
-- You don’t want Ben DiNucci at all for FF or the NFL…and neither does Dallas – DiNucci has already been benched for Week 9. Likely Garrett Gilbert will start for Dallas.
Gilbert has journeyman experience. He has a big arm. He’s erratic at times, but he can get hot at times too. He’s a wild card. You don’t know what you’re going to get, but it is better than DiNucci. Gilbert will FF-help, some, for Amari-Lamb-Gallup FF-hopes…more than DiNucci could, maybe on par with what you might expect from 2020 Andy Dalton. Which is to say, some solid moments but some of it a mess.
-- We could debate for hours what is wrong with Ezekiel Elliott (19-63-0, 1-10-0/2). Is it the offensive line, or missing Dak, or the coaching staff, or is Zeke out of shape, or is Zeke mentally checked out? Whatever it is – this is not the ‘Zeke’ we’re used to.
I kinda look at Zeke like David Johnson in midseason 2020…still NFL talented, but in a tough situation with their team and O-Line, but will get a good amount of touches and you just need for them to fall into the end zone to make it worthwhile for fantasy.
BUT, in the end, given the surrounding circumstances…you have to adjust your dials and call him a solid RB2, and not think of him as a stud starting RB1 right now.
-- Eagles starting ILB Nate Gerry was out injured this game, so T.J. Edwards (13 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1 FF) got the start and played a solid game. So solid that I wonder if Edwards might be in line to be a main starter and not rotational anymore.
Edwards would be a try-hard, fairly productive ‘main’ ILB if he becomes that.
-- The Eagles-DST may get dropped on their BYE week…but note that they have at NYG, at CLE Weeks 10-11. Not bad. Then their usefulness is over because SEA, at GB, NO, at ARI Weeks 12-15.
Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Ward
59 = Fulgham
46 = Reagor
41 = Scott
20 = Clement
02 = Huntley
53 = Goedert
16 = RRodgers
62 = Zeke
17 = Pollard
