- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Ravens 30, Eagles 28
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Ravens were leading this 17-0 at the half, and it could’ve been by more…and the Eagles were helpless versus the superior Ravens – I thought my Blazing Five Ravens pick (-7.5) was in the bag. All of the sudden the Eagles score 3 TDs in the 4th-quarter and are ‘going for two’ for a tie with two minutes left (and failed).
This was really one of those games where the superior team jumps on the inferior opponent and then just gets bored, conservative, and just starts sleepwalking…but the opponent keeps scrambling their way back in + mix in a little luck…and I’m sure the Ravens were just as shocked when Philly lined up for the two-point conversion.
The Eagles scratched and clawed with no Ertz, no Sanders…and get it to down 30-28 looking for two – and then the team that created the ‘Philly Special’ and who drafted short yardage ace wildcat QB Jalen Hurts…well, they coaches chose to run a basic play where Wentz tried to fake a handoff and keep it and he got tackled for a loss and ‘game over’ (and Hurts not on the field).
Such an admirable coaching job to keep the team going in a huge deficit…and then you climb all the way back and on the play of the game, the two point conversion try to tie, they use the most basic play in the playbook. I will never understand NFL coaches as long as I live.
Baltimore is (5-1) and heads into their bye week, just in time to extra prep/rest for the big showdown with the Steelers. Should the Ravens lose to an undefeated Steelers…there will be some nervousness in Baltimore that they don’t have ‘it’ in 2020.
I’ll bet the Ravens beat Pittsburgh (at home with an extra week of prep) and then we project them to go on to a 13-14-15 win season. Their schedule is turning even better with the Patriots not being the Patriots anymore and Dallas taking a hit without Dak.
Philly is 1-4-1…and still in the NFC East hunt. They have a two-game homestand with NYG and DAL the next two weeks but do so without Sanders and Ertz and most of their O-Line. That’s the bad news. The good news is NYG and Dallas are racked with as many issues as Philly. The schedule is too tough ahead. They Eagles project to 5-6 wins and probably losing the division to 7-win Dallas.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Miles Sanders (9-118-0, 1-0-0/2) is hurt again. Probably going to miss a week or two, I’d guess two with a Week 9 bye…but every week is critical for Philly, so he may be rushed back. I’d bet two weeks though.
As far as Week 7 TNF…it’s going to be Boston Scott (2-4-0, 2-5-0/4), and I love Scott…but I’d be wary of going too hot on him. Doug Pederson doesn’t ever seem to be as enthused with him. However, he has little choice here this week with the season falling apart and Scott is a gamebreaker.
I assume it will be a 70/30 split of Scott/Corey Clement, but this is a bad O-Line, a solid NYG defense, and a coaching staff not committed to Scott. If there’s a prop bet of who has more rushing yards in Week 7, Scott or Clement…or Jalen Hurts…it might be Hurts.
I play/chase Boston Scott for this Week 7 start…but just temper your expectations.
-- The Eagles lost their starting RB and Zach Ertz (4-33-0/10) in this game…and they’ve lost 80% of their starting O-Line. The Eagles are in shambles going into Week 7.
As soon as we all found out Zach Ertz was out for 3-4 weeks…I got a bunch of exuberant Dallas Goedert emails/texts. Hold your horses. I know many of us have TE issues, but…
Consider the following when trying to evaluate your interest in Goedert…
1) There are no reports that Goedert is healed enough to play Week 7…or Week 8. There’s no report of him even resuming conditioning or practicing yet. Maybe we’ll hear something Tuesday. But I am getting the feeling that he’s not going to be ready for Week 7.
The Eagles signed Richard Rodgers, Jason Croom, and then signed WR Hakeem Butler and are converting him to TE. There’s been a lot of TE movement/activity in Philly since Goedert went down…down with a sprained ankle PLUS a small fracture. It’s been 21 approx. days since it happened – can he recover that fast…plus, this game on a THU night gives him 3+ days less healing?
Goedert is another guy who may miss Weeks 7-8, take advantage of Week 9 bye to heal more, and fight on from there…but, again, the Eagles are running out of time. They may force things if available to.
2) How great is this going to be if Goedert does come back this week, anyway? You see how bad Zach Ertz has been. I know Goedert is more talented, but is Wentz or the coaching staff calling plays any better?
I like Goedert + Wentz – Ertz, but I’m not assuming obvious explosions when it happens. Hope but nervousness.
If Goedert doesn’t play Week 7, Richard Rodgers (3-31-0/5) is the ‘winner’/only one left…2.3 rec, for 24.8 yards, 0.0 TDs per game this season.
-- The Ravens have a minor RB issue as well, but not as pressing for them. Mark Ingram (5-20-0) is 50/50 to play Week 8 (they have a Week 7 bye) with an ankle injury. However, the Ravens have better RBs on the bench.
When Ingram went down, J.K. Dobbins (9-28-0, 2-1-0/4) was working as the lead -- but he could not really get popping. Gus Edwards (14-26-1) came in late against a worn down, but good Philly run defense and didn’t do anything either but did get a TD.
If Ingram is out, don’t get too excited for JKD…they face the Steelers Week 8, the top run D in the NFL. A shut-down run defense.
I would bet Ingram is fine for/plays in Week 8.
-- Lamar Jackson (16-27 for 186 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 9-108-1) spoke of his knee bothering as to why he hadn’t been running as much prior to this game.
I guess his knee is fine now…100+ rushing and a 35-yard TD run.
-- Speaking of running QBs, Jalen Hurts (2-23-0, 1-3-0/1)…
Every time Hurts enters the game, things get exciting and possible…so it’s only natural the Eagles barely use him overall and didn’t involve him when it really mattered.
We should see more and more Hurts Week 7 because (a) it’s working and (b) their whole starting offense will probably be inactive this week…and (c) the desperation level has to be off the charts right now.
-- Travis Fulgham (6-75-1/6) was not a factor for most of the 1st-half, then the Ravens started wandering and then the frenzied comeback attempt went full scale for Philly and Fulgham posted another great FF game.
I can’t believe it keeps working, but it does. Ride it while you can. When Reagor-DJax-Jeffrey return…IF they do Weeks 7 or 8 – then the Fulgham story starts to fall a bit…but he’ll be a starter in 2021 potentially. He has longer term legs but he’s not a future star, in my eyes…but he sure is playing solid/well right now.
-- Devin Duvernay (3-31-0/3) is better than Travis Fulgham, but in a worse spot for his production.
Just noting, I’m watching DD closely…his snap counts keep rising as are his targets/touches. If Marquise Brown goes down…Duvernay might be a shock performer in his stead.
-- Two Eagles IDPs to point out…
#1) From my IDP ‘Five Players’ from Week 6…
4) DE Josh Sweat, PHI
One of our deep sleeper and ‘stash’ IDPs for a couple years now, and he’s finally starting to emerge as a top pass rusher/defender. In 6 games this season…
1.7 total tackles, 0.50 sacks, 1.0 TFLs, 0.2 PDs, 0.2 FF per game
In Week 6 v. WSH, Sweat had a season high 5 tackles, 3 TFLs.
Sweat has been on my IDP Dynasty Stash for two+ years, one of the best-looking physical specimens as a pass rusher…but very raw and keeps grinding. He may be about to arrive as a 10+ sack a season guy.
#2) DT Malik Jackson – 4 tackles, 1.0 sack, 2 TFLs here in this game, and 2 QB hits…giving him 11 QB hits on the season, one of the best QB hit counts in the league. Just 1.5 sacks to go with, but you figure the sack counts will eventually come with all that pressure. Plus, he has 6 TFLs this season.
-- How bad is the Philly O-Line (due to injury)? The Ravens registered 16 QB hits, 6.0 sacks, and 8.5 TFLs in the game.
Facing the Eagles offense is ‘favorable’ every week for opposing DSTs of any level. How the Eagles managed to score 28 points here is a pox on the Ravens effort in the 2nd-half. Teams like the Giants, who they face next week, will play for their life and be a great start for the week against Philly.
Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = Ertz
43 = Rodgers
01 = Croom
35 = Scott
29 = Sanders
07 = Clement
62 = Brown
49 = Snead
33 = Boykin
26 = Duvernay
32 = Edwards
30 = Dobbins
09 = Ingram
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Seahawks 27, Vikings 26
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I’ll remember this game for Mike Zimmer/Minnesota going for it on 4th & 1 near the goal line late to put the game away (up 5 points) and getting stuffed doing so – which then allowed Russell Wilson to have 1:57 to go get a TD/a win…and you knew he would, and he did.
I think it was the right call by Zimmer instead of taking the FG to go up 8 points, but I get the argument both ways. We complain coaches don’t play to win…and then they do, and if it doesn’t work then we complain that they’d played things unsmart. Football fans, Fantasy owners, football handicappers…all like to whine about anything that doesn’t go their way…it’s the national pastime of being a fan of football. Makes it fun and maddening to behold.
Consider Minnesota has lost to Tennessee and Seattle by 1 point each within the last 3 weeks. This is not a bad Vikings team…just missing some key players (to injury) and had terrible luck this season…and got beat bad by GB-IND out of the gates -- so we think they suck. Losing to 4 playoff teams in the first 5 games of 2020 is not a crime. I bet they go beat the Falcons by a 10+ this week to show that they are better than the average NFL team.
If the Vikings win this week, get to a BYE and can somehow get Danielle Hunter back healthy (potentially he’s out for the year) – I think they have playoff aspirations. Week 8 at GB will be their Super Bowl, and if they win that to get to a hypothetical (3-4) then have a much easier schedule to the end…I think if they beat ATL and GB they will finish with 9 wins and sneak into the wild card. If they lose to ATL or GB, the playoff dreams are probably dashed in too big an early hole to climb out of.
Seattle is (5-0), but it’s a weaker (5-0)…every game since Week 2 they’ve had to scuffle to win. Bad news…Russell Wilson has had to save them four weeks in a row. Good news…they have Russell Wilson. The 49ers are dying. The Rams are overrated. The Cardinals are a .500 team – Seattle should cruise to an NFC West title and contend for a #1 seed. What a terrible year not to have the 12th man. No way Washington/Seattle politicians open things back up/strong to help.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s start with three “I was wrong” situations from this game…
#1) D.K. Metcalf (6-93-2/11) played a helluva game here. By far the best of his career, a career defining game of sorts/he’s been great all season for the NFL, for FF, but this game was a major step to Metcalf as arguably the most dominant WR in the NFL.
We all know he’s big and fast and can use power and speed to beat lesser corners in one-on-one. I’ve been amazed for two years how corners still come right up into his face and try to play tough with him as DKM swats them away and just blows them away deep. The NFL has been a 1000x easier for him than in the SEC…and it doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon.
Witness on the final drive, 4th & 10 for Seattle from their own side of the field, looking like ‘game over’, Russell Wilson dropped back and threw a (hail mary) 30+ yard jump ball for Metcalf…who was not double covered, not a ‘safety over’ approach, but just left to streak downfield (as always) off the snap and wide open on by several yards as a much smaller/skinnier rookie CB didn’t even know where the ball was.
Mike Zimmer is a defensive genius? Harrison Smith is the Captain of the DBs?
Metcalf caught the pass – a ‘drop’ or slipped footing (in the rain) would have cost them then catch/game. It was the play of the game made possible by Metcalf…not Wilson. In some respects, Metcalf is possibly the MVP of Seattle – not Wilson. That’s how dominant Metcalf has become. This play was as big as the final one for Seattle…
On this game-winning final drive, DKM caught the game-winning TD pass on 4th & 6 (the last play basically), diving for the throw with a defender on his back, with another DB coming from the other direction, in the rain and Metcalf caught it between two guys for the win. That’s a pass Metcalf would usually drop (not a deep ball, and in-traffic)…it might be one many WRs drop in the steady drizzle. Metcalf came through.
Two huge plays for Metcalf, in the rain, in the clutch, in all kinds of varieties.
I thought Metcalf would be a deep ball guy who couldn’t work the short/interior game (because of bad hands). I thought he was one dimensional and would get figured out by NFL defensive coordinators like he had in the SEC. Instead, the NFL still doesn’t really double him/pay him respect, still corners try to come up and press him, and Metcalf has shown that he’s just too dominant for the NFL.
I WAS WRONG. Metcalf is great, not ‘good’…and is the best WR prospect from that draft…and, again, a non-1st-round WR is the best WR from an NFL Draft.
For Fantasy, he’d be my #1 WR pick of the future over all of them if I were drafting redraft or Dynasty today (which means he’ll be doubled from now on in and his numbers brought down…the RC WR jinx of 2020 ya’ all!)…he’s that dominant right now. Tyreek or Metcalf would be my battle for top dog WR for FF going forward.
Three things that come to mind as I contemplate all this…
a) Tyler Lockett (4-44-0/5) should benefit from what has to be more coverage attention on Metcalf now. Lockett might hit a hot streak ahead, but he has two down weeks in a row in FF – an excellent buy low during a BYE week (now).
b) A.J. Brown, DK’s Ole Miss teammate, is going to be a similar but different type star – physical freak the NFL doesn’t cover right either and dominates physically, so he doesn’t have to be a master route-runner, or have amazing hands, etc.
Marvel at Larry Fitzgerald and DeAndre Hopkins’s hands…while Metcalf and Brown just physically impose their will on helpless, tiny NFL DBs for their success.
c) Quick comparison…
6’3.3”/228, 4.33 40-time, 27 bench reps, 40’5” vertical = D.K. Metcalf 2018 NFL Combine
6’4.2”/238 4.42 40-time, 19 bench reps, 40.5” vertical = Chase Claypool 2020 NFL Combine
We think of Claypool as a big/speedy for his size WR – he is big and speedy, but also at a size that is just too dominant to stop for little DBs. And Claypool is the ‘better’ WR version of Metcalf…all the size/speed with excellent routes, cuts, hands.
If the future is ruled by big, dominant, physical receivers…the future is Chase Claypool not Diontae Johnson (as a comparison for the whole pool of young NFL WRs).
-- (#2) I think I under graded Justin Jefferson (3-23-0/5) for the NFL.
I thought he was talented enough, but more ‘good’ and ‘made by Burrow’. There’s a component of all of that, but the more I watch Jefferson I see more Stefon Diggs/Diontae Johnson characteristics (already) than just your run of the mill ‘good’ WR prospect.
I made fun of the 1st-round WR class…Lamb-Ruggs-Jeudy-Reagor-Aiyuk-Jefferson as either way overrated on talent (Lamb-Ruggs-Jeudy-Reagor) or just too run of the mill ‘good’ to be taken that highly (Aiyuk-Jefferson). I thought Claypool-Mims-Duvernay-Edwards-Pittman were WAY better (and they are). However, after watching 5 games of NFL work now, I hold to that opinion of the 2020 NFL Draft top WRs except I remove Jefferson from my critique. I WAS WRONG! He’s better than all those other 1st-round names it looks like.
Jefferson is still a little finesse, wiry, potentially soft/frail like Diontae Johnson fears are popping up but both an excellent ability to get open on any coverage and great hands/playmaking skills after catches with quickness and vision. You can get tougher, more experienced as a WR but you cannot teach these guys the type of Diontae and Jefferson footwork to get open on NFL CBs day one, like they have.
I’m impressed with Jefferson. I think he’ll have a choppy 2020 FF-run because of the Vikings’ offense but he’s more WR2 than WR3 the rest of the season…and a future top guy for the Vikings as Adam Thielen ages.
-- (#3) I’m never criticizing Chris Carson (8-52-1, 6-27-1/7) again.
If only my own wife, kids, parents loved me as much as Pete Carroll loves Chris Carson. All the key carries and now a master in the pass game. I don’t get it, but someday I will accept it as unwavering reality.
Chris Carson is now 5th among all NFL RBs in catches this season (21). David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell…two of the great receiving RBs in NFL history cannot even get more than a target in a game, but Carson is now Christian McCaffrey West all of a sudden.
Chris Carson is arguably the best RB in fantasy. Maybe my praise can bring him down? I WAS WRONG to undervalued him…AGAIN! Don’t listen to me on Carson or James Conner…I have the same issues with both.
If you’re holding onto Rashaad Penny…it’s only a hope that Carson gets hurt and Penny has to step in. I pray I never am so stupid to write another ‘Here comes Penny to take the lead role’ sentence again (while he’s in Seattle). I’m stupider than NFL corners pressing coverage up on D.K. Metcalf when it comes to disliking Carson for FF.
It was a tough recap report to write to this point. It’s hard to say you’re wrong: https://youtu.be/CvdY3HfepOo
-- You know who I’m raising projections on this week…Irv Smith (4-64-0/5).
There was a lot of talk the week leading up to this game about ‘getting Irv Smith more touches’ by Zimmer, but that’s usually the kiss of death. The 1st play of this game – designed pass to Smith (batted down). The 2nd play…a 20+ yard diving catch for Smith. He went on to a career high 64 yards game here.
Smith faces the Falcons this week…the #2 worst defense against the TE this season.
You need help this week at TE or need to take a gamble…Irv might be a real overlooked option this week.
I strongly believe Kyle Rudolph is going to be traded by the trade deadline, unless MIN starts a winning streak through Week 8. You have half a notion on Smith today, but if Rudolph went down/traded – everyone would leap at him for FF. You might want to get in early?
-- Obviously, when Dalvin Cook is out…Alexander Mattison (20-112-0, 3-24-0/3) can step in and be a 100+ yard runner, as he did here. When Cook is back…it’s right back to heavy Dalvin. There is no takeover here.
So many starting RBs are getting hurt…you have to protect your lead RBs where the backup is clear for FF.
In no particular order, some names often overlooked in this boat (like Mike Davis was)…
Bennie Snell
D’Ernest Johnson (until Chubb returns)
Gio Bernard
Darrynton Evans/Jeremy McNichols
Duke Johnson
Devontae Booker
Tony Pollard
Boston Scott
J.D. McKissic
Cordarrelle Patterson
Latavius Murray
Brian Hill
Rashaad Penny (if he returns healthy)
Tevin Coleman (when he returns)
-- This was supposed to be the game where Kirk Cousins (27-39 for 249 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) took advantage of a favorable matchup but when Minnesota gets a lead, they just try to run the clock out (like most NFL head coaches want to do). Minnesota ran the ball 41 times and tried to sit on a lead for the first two-and-a-half quarters and then started throwing a bunch when they got down (more dink and dunk vs. Seattle playing soft trying to keep it in front of them).
Including their two playoff games last season, Cousins has not thrown for more than 276 yards in his last 11 games. He has one 300+ yards passing game in his last 15 games.
However, in his last 16 regular season games, Cousins has thrown for 31 TD passes.
Cousins is playing like a little lesser Ryan Tannehill or Derek Carr…heavy run team QBs who get throw against stacked run game defenses/boxes a lot and are efficient (good TDs) not swashbuckling (lower yards).
-- MIN LB Eric Wilson (6 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs, 3 QB hits) is starting to perk up…
7.5 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 0.50 sacks per game since Week 2.
His numbers are starting to flash LB1 signals.
Anthony Barr out for the year is giving him a little extra number boost as well. We juiced him up pretty good in the latest projections, which is usually a kiss of death on him for the past two+ years. This time he really is the coach’s desired starter – that’s the difference.
Snap Counts of Interest:
45 = Olsen
20 = Dissly
03 = Hollister
64 = Rudolph
59 = Irv Smith
10 = Conklin
54 = E Kendricks
54 = Eric Wilson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Dolphins 43, 49ers 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game is being so overlooked, so misinterpreted by the media and us fans. This is a classic case of all of us seeing what we have been conditioned to see.
-We think the 49ers are a top team in general…so, we’re going to overlook all their devastating defensive injuries and keep on thinking they’re good – reinforced because they smoked the Jets and Giants in back-to-back weeks.
-We think the Dolphins are a bad team because…remember early last year?.
-We think Jimmy Garoppolo must be hurt because – how could this happen against lowly Miami if it weren’t true? He was benched because of his injury not fully healed.
The real story is…
1) The 49ers are going to be lucky to be .500 this season because of all their injuries.
2) Miami is better across the board then the 49ers because of their offseason moves and SF’s mass injuries.
You ready for this? I don’t think you are…
Since Week 9 of last regular season (last 9 games in 2019) + the 2020 season so far, the records for these two teams:
(8-5) = SF
(7-6) = MIA
If the Vegas lines are right about Week 6…that will be both (8-6) in this comparison after Week 6.
3) Miami has an emerging, excellent defense.
4) The 49ers’ downfall is their own doing on top of the injuries because Robert Selah is one of the worst, if not the worst D-C in the NFL. But the media likes his look, so the 49ers are afraid to change.
5) Jimmy G. was benched to send him a pre-warning. This wasn’t because of an injury…it was because he’s not that great and more pressing is the Miami defense is really good and gets no credit for the sheer dominance here.
The 49ers are playing for their season this week at LAR. If they lose, this season is essentially ‘over’ for them. From Weeks 7-13: @NE, @SEA, GB, @NO, BYE, @LAR, BUF. Six games they will be an underdog in. If they lose this week to LAR and drop to (2-4) they will probably lose five of their next 6 after that and be done. We could be looking at a 5-6 win 49ers team if they lose to LAR this week. 7-8 wins if they beat LAR this week. Never discount Kyle Shanahan but he can only do so much with a dying team.
I could see Kyle making a deal for Matt Ryan to try to save the season, but he might be better to just pack it in and write this year off to injury and rebuild in 2021.
Miami is now (2-3). When they beat NYJ this week they will be (3-3) heading into a BYE. I would project them to finish with 8-9 wins as it stands right now. If they stay healthy and fix their RB situation – this becomes a dangerous team you don’t want to play, especially at home…and three of their next 6 games are at home.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The resurgence of Miami is going to come from their defense. From my ‘Upside DST of the Week’ notes for Week 6:
Obviously, 'anything against the Jets' -- that's the only reason you need. But I want you to consider how good the Miami defense might be...
They're currently #10 in the league in PPR allowed to opponents...not bad.
But look at the splits based on Byron Jones:
25.0 PPG allowed = in 3 games Byron Jones was out
21.0 PPR allowed = in 2 games with Byron Jones playing/active
Check this out...
333.3 net passing yards allowed = in 3 games Byron Jones was out
134.0 net passing yards allowed = in 2 games with Byron Jones playing/active
It's a good defense for Week 6, for sure...but it may have legs beyond that.
The Dolphins defense might be a top 5-10 defense, as a unit, in the NFL ahead…IF they have Xavien Howard and Byron Jones healthy.
It’s just not the ace CBs either…it’s a solid, deep rotational D-Line. They have solid enough linebackers. They are #7 in the league on 3rd-downs as a defense (38% convert against). They are #9 in QB hits. This unit is good and was showing signs in the 2nd-half of last year starting, and added a bunch of smart free agents in the offseason…it’s coming together.
-- Thus, the Jimmy Garoppolo (7-17 for 77 yards, 0 TD/2 INTs) was not an injury issue. It was Jimmy G. is not great + rusty/not 100% + Miami’s defense.
If Jimmy G, is bad in a loss to the Rams this week…a change to C.J. Beathard may have to happen. The 49ers can easily walk away from Jimmy G. in 2021, contractually. The end of Jimmy G. might be a week away and the 49ers essentially start to tank the season instead of swimming upstream with all kinds of injuries crushing them.
-- Because the 49ers are down to 3rd-string corners, Preston Williams (4-106-1/5) saw nice targeting. Every time CB Brian Allen was on a WR, that’s where Fitz went usually. Preston was that winner a few times.
Note…Fitz took two 25+ yard shot deep balls to PW for TDs and one was a D-P.I. no play and the other was not open. Just know Fitz was trying…he was swashbuckling with Preston. Good to see.
You think Fitz will try again this week with PW vs. NYJ?
Yep.
-- Myles Gaskin (16-57-1, 5-34-0/5) avoided the Le’Veon Bell takeover…but it goes to show what I’ve been hinting at – Gaskin is a target very able to be taken out. Could be by a Todd Gurley or David Johnson or whomever in an acquisition, or it could be by Matt Breida (9-28-0, 1-31-0/1).
‘Takeout’ probably means a split of some kind in the near future. Like a 50-50 or hot hand game where Breida just stays in longer and longer. There was no sign of that here. Breida got a few good opportunities but he didn’t really cash in on any of them.
Gaskin is clearly Brian Flores’s guy…until he isn’t, but right now it’s clearly Gaskin and he isn’t really helping them but Breida isn’t doing anything obvious either.
On the Miami roster, today, Breida is the one inline if something happens to Gaskin.
-- No debate in San Francisco at RB. Raheem Mostert (11-90-0, 3-29-0/3) has runaway with it. If not for a blowout occurring, Mostert (in a tight game) would’ve seen 20+ carries easy.
Jerick McKinnon (1-0-0, 2-3-0/4)…thank you for your service…buh-bye. He’s like a non-entity anymore. A mild pass game relief back. When Tevin Coleman returns in a few weeks (if) then it’s a Mostert dominant lead with Tevin playing 25-30% of the snaps/touches.
This is your last week to buy Mostert reasonably before he has a huge touch count and could go skyrocketing in value.
-- Deebo Samuel (2-19-0/8) was a victim of three things…
1) CB Xavien Howard and the Miami defense. 80% of the issue.
2) The problem with Jimmy Garoppolo and/or C.J. Beathard, which was more the Miami defense. 10% of the issue.
3) Deebo was sick all week and away from the team for most of the week. Might have been a factor a tiny bit. 10% of the issue.
The issue #1 above, it’s a problem again Weeks 6-7…
Week 6 v. Jalen Ramsey
Week 7 v. Stephon Gillmore
-- Two IDP’s to point out…
1) MIA LB Andrew Van Ginkel (6 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1.5 TFL)…he has 2.5 sacks in his last three games played. A hard working, 240+ pound LB who ran a 6.89 three-cone at his NFL Combine 2019 (which is very high end for his size). He played 70% of the snaps this week, double what he’s done in prior weeks. It looks like he’s emerging a bit as a pass rusher.
2) SF DT Kerry Hyder (2 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1.5 TFLs, 3 QB hits), is a DT we keep pointing out every week because he always catches my attention. 3.5 sacks this season a among the NFL leaders with 10 QB hits.
-- As I’ve been saying for weeks…this SF-DST is dying a fast death, and it took a fatal head wound here. I’m really surprised D-C Robert Saleh didn’t get fired this week, honestly/no joke. Since their hot schedule-based (easy) start last season, this defense has been torched regularly…except beating up Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold a few weeks ago.
Against non-NY teams this season they’ve given up 24-25-43 points in games.
From Week 9 on last season the gave up: 25-27-26-8-20-46-29-31-21 in regular season games to the end of the year (over 27 PPG allowed their last 12 regular season games).
They have no defensive backfield to speak of. They lost Nick Bosa. They can’t keep all 3 linebackers healthy for more than a few weeks at a time. They are dying, but people are still holding like is the 1st-half of 2019. There is nothing here. The schedule gets much worse (their next 7 games are with likely 2020 playoff teams/good-to-great offenses). They are undermanned. They need to rebuild this completely in 2021.
Because some people are holding onto the past, you can probably add them as a sweetener in a deal this week to open up a space (if you have).
Snap Counts of Interest:
31 = Mostert
16 = McKinnon
15 = J Wilson
62 = Aiyuk
57 = Deebo
42 = Gaskin
21 = Breida
10 = Laird
10 = Bowden
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Texans 30, Jaguars 14
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Here’s what we really need to understand about this game, in three parts…
1) Jacksonville entered missing it’s top/elite pass rusher (Allen), it’s top ranked (by PFF) linebacker (Jack), and its shutdown corner (Henderson). The heart and soul of defense…gone…and it just happened this week/game. Plus, they lost their top slot corner (Hayden) coming in (on I.R. now) and were down to a backup safety starting…who they then lost in-game, going to their 3rd/4th-string rookie.
A so-so/erratic/young defense lost 4-5 of its best players for this one game (and maybe more ahead).
2) In this game, right before the half, under a minute left…the Jags missed a 24-yard FG which would have tied things at 10-10. Houston took over and tried to race downfield for a score before-half FG, but Watson threw a horrible pass and was picked. The Jags were set up for another FG to tie it before half…missed again.
In the 3rd-quarter, the Jags were driving for a TD to take the lead late in the quarter…they refused to kick a short FG (because of the prior issues) and went to do a trick RB-pass play and the RB fumbled and the deep drive ended with no points. Houston won the game from there.
3) The Jags were devastated on defense, and still Deshaun Watson struggled, threw two picks (and many other poor passes) for about 3.5 quarters. Watson put two TDs on demoralized JAX late and it looked like a big win/nice Watson stats. It wasn’t as good as it looked. Houston should be embarrassed by this game performance considering the backdrop.
Houston finally gets a win, but it was ugly. This team, this offense, this defense…ugly. Their season comes down to Week 6 at TEN. A win there actually keeps the dream alive. A loss there puts a bullet in their 2020 and they might as well dump everything to prep for 2021.
You could see Will Fuller and David Johnson get traded, among others if they lose Week 6.
Jacksonville lost, but, as always, tries hard. They were the better team for the most part, just undermanned and hurt by their 4th kicker (due to a rash of injuries) for the young season. The Jags have so many key injuries right now, I’m not sure when they’ll be healthy or win a game next.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- D.J. Chark (3-16-0/4) had a down game (off his 2-TD day the week prior). Couple notes on it…
1) It was as feared/as predicted, they tried to avoid the WR covered by Bradley Roby.
2) Chark left the game late with an ankle injury, but it’s supposedly not that bad and they had no reason to push him back in because the game was functionally over. I think he might play in Week 6, if you see him practicing ‘limited’ FRI.
3) Minshew took two shots at Chark in the end zone from short range in this game…missed him on one (ruled a throw away/non-target but it wasn’t), didn’t have him open on the other but almost.
Minshew is just throwing to whatever is open, not forcing things because he’s having to throw a ton. Roby provided good coverage on Chark + there were some double teams on him. The rest of the field was bountiful for Minshew so Chark had a weak day.
Risk of this happening again Week 7 at LAC, Week 10 at GB, and trouble Weeks 15-16 (BAL-CHI). Otherwise, Chark is the team’s best WR…but Minshew is not slavishly working him when it doesn’t make sense, but it’s his best look when he sees the right coverage.
-- Laviska Shenault (7-79-0/8) becomes the easy look when a top corner is working Chark, so Minshew took it. Shenault is a solid WR3 every week with a pinch of upside.
Keelan Cole (2-25-1/6) always looks great on the field but usually has just 1-2 catches for 3.5 quarters and then gets a bunch of junk late 4th-quarter when way down, and gets an extra catch or two. Then in their late hurry up, down two scores with less than a minute to go, we saw three throws to Cole in desperation, all incomplete. Cole is a WR3-4, who has WR2 talent, but WR4 targeting but WR2 TDs thus season so far.
-- Gardner Minshew (31-49 for 301 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 4-18-0) is working as a solid QB2…QB1 hope in good matchups.
Minshew is 11th in the NFL in passing yards per game and 7th in passing TDs.
Note…just ahead of him in those categories is Derek Carr, for the season.
…and Teddy Bridgewater is coming on strong and ahead of him in passing yards per game but behind him in TDs.
-- Deshaun Watson (25-35 for 339 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs) is just ahead of Minshew in passer yards per game, but it’s looked terrible/been a lot of garbage that I see.
TO my eye, Watson is playing terrible football. It can work for FF because of garbage (like 330+ yards here against a stripped defense)…but Minshew-Carr-Teddy all look better on-field/on tape and have similar/better numbers.
-- David Johnson (17-96-0, 2-7-0/4) had a few 10+ yard plays in this game. There were some openings to run through late, as the defense was worn down – and they were worn down, in part, by DJ’s physical running all game.
Many of us own DJ and want to trade him off/banish him/punish him for not dancing for us on command. We do that a lot in FF…something has a few bad result weeks, and we urgently want to sell it for some other pipe dream. You are in pain over DJ, I get it. But I could rattle off a long list of other RBs with big names who are failing in fantasy but getting good touches/snaps.
Joe Mixon, CEH, Drake, Gaskin, J. Kelley, A. Gibson, Le’Veon, D Montgomery…to name a few. Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders are really struggling, but it’s glossed over by several short TDs to pump FF numbers. DJ is not getting to the goal line often to juice his numbers with the easy TDs so far.
It’s also been mentioned by me, now chronicled by others in the media – Watson has misfired passes to a wide-open David Johnson in the end zone/easy TDs on three different occasions this season.
DJ is 26th in PPR PPG among RBs with 3 or more games played and are not on I.R. currently. If Watson completed just two of those easy TD passes, DJ would be sitting #17 among RBs in PPG…about one more TD away from the top 12.
Do you really have a David Johnson problem? Is he ‘bad’. I don’t see it. Just unlucky so far…not his fault. I’m a ‘buy low’ still.
-- James Robinson (13-48-0, 5-22-0/7) is starting to see his numbers sag as we go. He’s another guy owners are getting fussy about – no TDs, now you’re mad at him. Guys like JRob and DJ – they ARE their team’s main guy and eventually TDs will fall their way, by random luck of the universe course correcting opportunities. You have to believe it…even if it doesn’t happen. They are getting touches that warrant more FF scoring.
JRob has the 11th most carries by an RB this season. David Johnson 13th.
-- Brandin Cooks (8-161-1/12) had a big game, but the Jags were running two backup/backup-to-the-backup level CBs, so the opportunity to pick on them with Cooks was there (because the one good, remaining, Jags CB was on Will Fuller). No sudden return to greatness here.
-- With the need for so much passing by JAX, Chris Thompson (3-35-0/3) has caught 3 or more passes in three of his last 4 games…with a high of 5 catches Week 3. Not saying anything special is happening here, but he is playing like 40% of the offensive snaps now. He’s a lesser J.D. McKissic.
-- HOU LB Tyrell Adams (12 tackles, 1 TFL) took over when Benardrick McKinney went down and out. He is the assumed starter for him now. Solid enough grinder…not necessarily a future star, but gets a shot at playing time/IDP opps now.
-- JAX rookie SAF Daniel Thomas (7 tackles) was forced into action with the in-game injuries. I’m a fan of Thomas. He could work if starting/while Andrew Wingard is out…but it’s risky because Jarrod Wilson (4 tackles, 1 INT) is back now too…and he’ll be the more experienced SAF.
Snap Counts of Interest:
45 = Dav Johnson
17 = Duke Johnson
60 = Cole
52 = Shenault
50 = Chark
24 = Conley
23 = Collin Johnson (caught a TD pass…is an end zone weapon at 6’6”, but still inexperienced otherwise in routes, etc., with Minshew)
42 = J Robinson
30 = CH Thompson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Ravens 27, Bengals 3
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
If any score of any game in 2020 represented truly what everyone thought going in...and then exactly what happened in reality…it was this one. What you expected to happen, happened. Joe Burrow struggled against the Ravens defense and he got hit a lot and the Ravens just toyed around and jumped ahead early and just moseyed onto victory. Nothing fresh to learn here about either team.
We won’t know how good the Ravens are until they hit Weeks 7-12: PIT, @IND, @NE, TEN, @PIT.
The Bengals next hope for wins comes Weeks 11-14 when they face three NFL East teams in a 4 game stretch…a stretch where we can answer the question – what team is worse…the Bengals or every team in the NFC East?
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Lamar Jackson (19-37 for 180 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 2-3-0) is killing people in FF. Last week, he missed some practices sick and has a knee injury that he’s able to play on but in a game against a helpless foe there’s no need for him to go all out so you get him playing, dialed back, and killing your FF numbers.
I think there’s a risk of it happening Week 6 vs. PHI too. In 6pts per pass TD with bonus scoring, etc., ‘favorable for passing’ league scoring – the question of whether like a Gardner Minshew is in a better spot this week is firmly on the table. You have to believe Lamar is saving himself for the difficult weeks ahead starting Week 7. It’s a concern LJax owners don’t need in their lives right now. I’m just thinking out loud…no one truly knows.
-- Joe Burrow (19-30 for 183 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) has the opposite issue…he knows going into every game he is going to get killed. He’s the #1 most sacked/hit QB in the NFL.
Another reason why Herbert is better than Burrow…Herbert is handling the lack of O-Line a thousand times better than Burrow is. And that’s not a slam at Burrow, I expect this Burrow choppiness…what Herbert is doing with that O-Line he has is the most impressive rookie QB play I’ve ever witnessed.
-- The Ravens defense can so dominate the weak, you can’t get down on the Bengals assets now…prior week/s they were rolling numbers.
It’s a good time to buy low on Tyler Boyd (4-42-0/6) or very low on Tee Higgins (4-62-0/8) if you were looking for an entry point. The Ravens corners are pretty salty.
-- Drew Sample (2-22-0/2) is not leveraging the ‘you know how Burrow loves TEs’ vibe I too thought existed. Since the Week 2 breakout in the 4th-quarter when C.J. Uzomah got hurt…Sample has had one decent game and two duds. The momentum/trend is he’s a TE2-3 until further notice.
-- J.K. Dobbins (1-34-0, 3-21-0/4) got one carry…popped it for 34 yards, and then that’s that for carries. Thank you for your service.
For the year, Dobbins has 16 carries for 126 yards and 2 TDs…an impressive 7.9 yards per carry. At some point, he’s going to emerge and then the Ravens run game will never be the same again.
Dobbins has 3 or more catches in two of his last 3 games. Very odd for a Ravens RB to get that level of pass game work with Lamar. It’s a good sign of how trusted JKD is. He just needs ‘the job’ and then he might be better than rookie RBs CEH or Jon Taylor in the situations they are in. If all three were full starters named today, I’d want JKD for FF 2020 ROS I do believe. Better offense. Excellent talent.
We may look back in 1-2 years and the answer of top Dynasty Rookie between CEH or Taylor was the answer of JKD.
-- I love Devin Duvernay (1-42-0, 2-17-/2)…talk about a guy who got screwed by his landing spot. If he were a Packer or Chief he'd be one of the rookie stars of 2020 already. Stuck in Lamar Jackson’s offense, I don’t know if he’ll be relevant for years.
John Harbaugh knows he has something here.
Two weeks ago…90+ yard kick return TD. This week, one jet sweep…42 yards.
Both Dobbins and Duvernay are giving little glimpses of the Ravens future, and absolute killer offensive weapon depth. Duvernay would be the best WR on the Jets, Giants, Dolphins right now…and he can’t get on the field in Baltimore.
Snap Counts of Interest:
63 = Sample
13 = C Carter
54 = Mq Brown
38 = Snead
36 = Boykin
18 = Duvernay
25 = Edwards
19 = Ingram
18 = Dobbins
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Browns 32, Colts 23
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was no fluke…the Browns just played a better game. I don’t know that it confirms that the Browns are good because it could just mean we just saw the swan dive of the Indianapolis Colts happen right before our very eyes. The Philip Rivers-led Colts are going NOWHERE. It’s getting so bad that I don’t think you can count this as a ‘quality’ win for the Browns, per se. Actually, it is a quality win…the Colts are dying but OK/strong defense – and the Browns just beat them from the opening kick.
I mean, look who the Browns have beaten…
They scuffled with but beat Cincy Week 2. They were losing in the 4th-quarter to Washington before rallying. They needed a bunch of turnovers and gadget plays to hold off bad Dallas. Here they beat a dying Colts team (because of Rivers…and Reich). We’ll see how good they are at PIT, at CIN, LV the next three weeks. Especially at PIT Week 6 is a huge litmus test. I’m on the fence with them…I think once they start losing, they will collapse in on themselves. If they keep finding a way to win, they almost have a college enthusiasm they’re playing with right now to ride for momentum for a while.
The Colts have the opposite of that. Frank Reich is stoic…and the Colts have taken on that personality. Philip Rivers is dying off right in front of our eyes, and the entire team knows it…but they also know Reich is not removing his friend. It’s going to get painful in Indy until they make the Jacoby Brissett move, which may be weeks away. They can beat Cincy Week 6, then hopefully beat DET Week 8 (Week 7 is a bye). Those two un-quality wins would take them to (5-2). Then they may lose three of 4 with BAL-@TEN-GB-TEN and be (6-5) with a decision to make Week 13 at HOU…on whether they’re better off with Brissett. With Rivers all the way through we project them to 8 wins in the end. A later season change to Brissett puts 9 wins in play. If they changed now, they could be a 10 win team.
It is that bad with Rivers right now…and nothing can fix what’s wrong except facing weaker opponents.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The main reason why the Browns are (4-1) is because the old Baker Mayfield (21-37 for 247 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) is starting to appear a little bit.
There’s an energy, a pace, a swagger that Baker has when he’s rolling that can carry an offense/franchise. Signs of it showed in his record-setting 2018 rookie season. It got taken away in 2019. He was also M.I.A. Week 1 getting brutalized by the Ravens.
Then, starting Week 2, the winning started. The heretofore problem WR duo of OBJ-Landry started playing with more pep when they started winning. OBJ looks like he cares a little bit suddenly. Against a very good Colts defense, Baker was masterful in many spots. Making the throws he did at Oklahoma and his NFL rookie season – frozen ropes to the right option at the right time. This peppy Baker Mayfield can get Cleveland to the playoffs, maybe.
The problem is OBJ and Landry are still a problem. When opposing/good teams can get up quickly and with some margin -- I think the OBJ-Landry duo will shrink and the current upbeat Browns team vibe will start to corrupt. A 2-3 game losing streak could flush them down the toilet totally/return them back to their loser ways. Winning cures everything but their schedule is going to turn tougher…and I’m not sure they can cope with the challenge. This week with PIT is a huge test of their mettle.
Baker is back, to a small degree…he still has issues and a heavy run game design to block huge FF upside, but he’s showing a pulse again.
-- T.Y. Hilton (6-69-0/10) caught a few easy, garbage passes from Rivers to go with a few medium route throws to put together his first decent FF day…I’d sell it hot this week if you need to.
The Colts will likely stick with Rivers until at least Week 8, with a change more likely Weeks 11-12…but it’s possible they just go all the way off a cliff with him. TYH suffers, is a WR3-4, with Rivers. He has a name and a good game, and people think they are buying low. There’s a thousand WRs on waivers, likely/depending on your league, that are in the ‘Flex’ range of Hilton.
I see a few people booking deals for Stefon Diggs or Keenan Allen this week using Darrell Henderson (for the RB needy) combined with Hilton (name appeal) to trade up for the better PPR WRs. Hilton as an add on that’s not really one is a savvy way to play it.
Hilton is better but still erratic with Brissett…and we could be several weeks from that, if ever in 2020.
-- Everything is fine with Jonathan Taylor (12-57-1, 2-17-0/3) except Frank Reich isn’t pushing him as his only hope. He still thinks Rivers-led is the way to go. I suspect as we go this season, Taylor will see more and more touches – out of Indy need. He would also benefit from a change to Brissett, I think.
-- D’Ernest Johnson (8-32-0, 1-4-0/1) was a big flop from the hopes of many with him off waivers last week. I wouldn’t close the door all the way on him yet.
Every time he entered this game, the Colts swarmed the run game (as they did to Hunt too…just 3.6 ypc for Hunt here)..or there was a penalty to take the touch away (it seemed). He could never get started, but late in the game Hunt had to leave and lie down holding his leg – and it was Johnson that ran well and salted the game away.
They tried to get Johnson some touches early, but they definitely favored Hunt heavy all throughout until he physically had to come out. Johnson then shined late to help them win – for the second week in a row Johnson was the late game hero, of sorts.
Hunt may be more hurt than we realize…and could be inactive…or just gets reaggravated in-game this week.
-- Odell Beckham’s (5-58-0/9) season minus the Jarvis Landry TD pass Week 4…
20 rec., 257 yards, 2 TDs in 5 games
4.0 rec., 51.4 yds, 0.40 TDs per game…7.5 FF PPG, 11.5 PPR PPG…which is a WR3 or worse type WR in PPR
His Week 4 trick play pass and end-around run TD are fluffing up a hard truth – he’s not very good/great anymore. He’s mostly ‘name’, not reality.
-- After an FF-terrible/sluggish first 3 games…Austin Hooper (5-57-0/10) is coming alive the past two weeks…5.0 rec., 45.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game on 8.5 targets per game.
The activity is up and I think Hooper has a chance to matter as the WRs usually wind up let down and it’s a safe place for Baker to go…but also note David Njoku 1-6-0/1) returned to action this week…and rookie Harrison Bryant (0-0-0/1) has been playing good snaps as well.
Still, in a sea of problems at TE…Hooper doesn’t look terrible right now.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Njoku was traded before the trade deadline to go back to Bryant as the 2nd-TE and the Miami Dolphins or Washington FTs take a look.
-- Can you trust the Indy-DST after this mess?
It’s like the Chiefs getting whacked by LV…in this era, things happen on offense against a decent opponent. About the only sure bet right now is facing a New York team, or the Jets + any NFC East team.
The schedule is unkind after this week. You got the BYE Week 7 and then at DET is OK Week 8…then doom: BAL-@TEN-GB-TEN-@HOU-@LV-HOU@PIT. Not many favorable/sweet matchups ahead.
-- Might the Browns-DST be in-play?
Later, maybe. Not now. @PIT, @CIN, LV, BYE the next four weeks…really nothing good in there and the Browns defense is not awesome. They struggled with every team they’ve played (on defense) except Philip Rivers. Not a great ‘sign’.
Snap Counts of Interest:
58 = Hooper
29 = Bryant
21 = Njoku
51 = Hunt
22 = D’Ernest
31 = Taylor
21 = Hines
02 = Wilkins
34 = Doyle
25 = Burton
21 = Alie-Cox
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Raiders 40, Chiefs 32
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
How ‘bout that Chiefs defense, huh? In the era of mass scoring and ignored holding calls…when your DST faces a viable offense, this might happen. The Raiders were good, and are good, on offense but a little bit of luck was thrown in for good measure. Mostly, though, the Raiders are just a very good team/offense and Jon Gruden (my opinion) is a smarter, craftier, better head coach than Andy Reid…Reid just has Mahomes. Reid wasn’t a genius with Alex Smith. Gruden beat KC with an undermanned unit…kudos to Jon.
Like the Chiefs, I took the Raiders FF-lightly with the KC-DST here…and got-got just like KC did.
It was a back & forth game all game, and the real main factor here is, once again, besides their Baltimore game, the Chiefs play lazy because they think/know they can turn on the jets when they need to…and they usually do and win. It was going to catch up to them at some point…and it just did here. KC is the best team in the NFL, because of Mahomes PLUS a top NFL defense, but it also has its own head up its own ass so far (crowded along with the adoring media) that they can’t see so straight. Perhaps, this wake-up call is what they needed. Happens to the best of them.
Kansas City should come out on fire this week and crush their next opponent, you’d think…and/but they face a Buffalo team also recently humiliated with the same mindset. Bad draw for Buffalo because KC has much more talent and is much healthier and two days extra rest. KC could run the table from here, but they’ll probably lose another 1-2 games, maybe 3 more if they keep playing things ‘too cool’.
The Raiders are going to be a tough-out wild card as we projected since June-July. This win kinda solidifies that they are not to be trifled with. They’re only going to get better. KC better not sleep too much on them because the Raiders can win 10+ games this year. If KC slips up again in the near future, it’s only going to fuel Vegas who now has a tiebreaker advantage in their pocket.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- A slightly odd thing happened in the 2nd-quarter of this game…
Devontae Booker (7-62-0, 1-1-0/5) came out and was the ‘main back’ to start the 2nd-quarter drive for the Raiders. Not a big deal. Josh Jacobs (23-77-2, 2-8-0/3) needs a breather from his overuse. Booker looked good for the whole series and it ended kinda quick off a Derek Carr TD bomb to Nelson Agholor.
But here’s the odd thing…
Booker came back out again for the next drive…two drives in-a-row he started. His first carry of the 2nd-drive for him, a sweet 43-yard pop. When it happened live (watching 7 games at one time), I was like ‘wow’ Jacobs really looks quick and made a nice run there. It took me 3-4-5 seconds to realize it was Booker.
Josh Jacobs has one of the lowest ‘yards before contact’ among top RBs (1.6 yards per) – either his O-Line is bad, or they’re consumed by a stacked box attacking Jacobs. Let me see which one it is… Jacobs played 45 snaps and ran the ball 23 times this game…so 50%+ of the time you can guess ‘Jacobs run’ when he’s in. He also got 3 targets. When Jacobs was in, he got the ball 57.8% of the time. Easy to guess for the defense that is definitely stacking Jacobs now on a weekly basis.
Jacobs has a very low ‘yards before contact’ rating and a very low 3.6 yards per carry on the season. It’s either him, the O-Line, or stacked box defenses. I think it’s the most obvious option – stacked boxes with some O-Line injuries not helping.
Subsequently, Booker is averaging a whopping 7.1 yards per carry this season. Aided a bit by the long run but is 4.9 yards per carry outside of the big run.
Just noting this because…
1) We might see a touch more Booker, and a hint less of Jacobs ahead…which would relieve JJ of some burden. Keep him fresh. But possible take his FF opps down a bit.
2) I’d almost bet Jacobs is going to break down from all the mass touches and stacked box defensive hits if he keeps getting overused (and I think this is the most likely outcome ahead)…Booker could be the Mike Davis from Las Vegas, if/when it happens. Just saying… Jacobs owners you better have Booker.
-- Speaking of struggling RBs…Clyde Edwards-Helaire (10-40-0, 3-40-0/8), amiright? How fast did the bloom fall off that rose? What would you have needed to trade for the 1.01 in your Dynasty Rookie Draft to get CEH? I bet it’s not as expensive a proposition today.
It could get worse/cheaper of a price if Le’Veon Bell winds up here in the next few days.
Think it’s not possible? Leonard Fournette was talking with KC. The Chiefs are not inflicted with Rookie Derangement as Fantasy GMs are.
Bell would be in a split with CEH, I imagine…a 60/40 split by Week 8-9. If the KC RB has been an RB 1.5-2.0, what happens when you split their touches? They both become random RB2s like RoJo-Fournette early 2020 season, before Fournette got hurt.
-- Sammy Watkins is going to miss a few weeks (shocker). That SHOULD lead to better Mecole Hardman (2-50-0/3) results but once again Watkins was gone, Hardman played big snap counts…and in a back-and-forth battle against a team with weak corners – Mecole got 2 catches and 3 targets. Beware. Great matchups ahead, but is there such a thing if Hardman isn’t seeing the ball much?
-- Speaking of Mecole Hardman, Mecole 2.0/Henry Ruggs (2-118-1/3) had a Mecole-day right in Mecole’s face. A couple big plays on limited targets. His non-TD catch was pure luck/snatched off the DBs helmet who should’ve picked the pass or knocked away.
I said Ruggs was Mecole-like in my pre-NFL Draft scouting reports…and it’s coming to fruition.
Nelson Agholor (2-67-1/2) is the Raiders #1 WR, but that warrants all of 2 targets in this game.
55 of the Raiders’ 66 plays (rushes/targets) were to the RBs or TEs.
I thought Bryan Edwards could come in and take that #1 WR role, and he kinda did from snap #1 this season (but then got hurt) – but what does that FF-matter is the #1 WR on the Raiders equals 2-4 targets a game?
Hunter Renfrow (1-42-0/2) is playing his arse off…and he caught 1 pass for 2 targets here in a game they beat KC and scored 40 points.
As long as Gruden is there – it’s an RB/TE-based offense and that’s that.
-- Derek Carr (22-31 for 347 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) is smart about it…he’s not leaning on any one thing for targeting. He wants Waller, but if you take that away he’ll go anywhere else that’s open – not just to ‘his bailout guy’ over and over (like Kyler+Hopkins, or Brees+Thomas). Good for NFL…bad for FF WRs/projections on Carr’s style.
Since Week 2, Carr is the #12 QB in FF PPG (4pts per pass TD).
-- Chiefs rookie LB Willie Gay (6 tackles, 1 sack) played a season high 47% of the snaps and had season highs in all his output categories. Looks like he’s working his way to becoming a starter. I’m not a huge fan, but he’s progressing.
-- Maxx Crosby (2 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 QB hits) started out slow Weeks 1-2, but is coming on now – 4.0 sacks his last 3 games. He’s starting to get back to his high IDP ways he finished 2019 with.
-- Lost faith in the KC-DST? Don’t.
Week 6 = KC at BUF…I told you to prep for this week with Miami ahead of time.
Week 7 = KC at Drew Lock
Week 8 = KC v. Darnold/Flacco
Week 9 = KC v. Teddy could go either way
Week 10 = BYE (Miami v. LAC is now really dying as an option)…could be a jumping off point for KC-DST, or Week 9 for a better Week 9-10 punch.
Week 11 = at Derek Carr again (Miami at Drew Lock)
Week 12 = at Brady (Miami at Flacco/Darnold)
Week 13 = KC at Drew Lock
Week 14 = KC at Fitz/Tua
The COVID schedule changes messed up my master plan a little bit from weeks ago on this. Still good though.
Snap Counts of Interest:
63 = Tyreek
50 = Hardman
49 = Dem Robinson
26 = Watkins
43 = CEH
29 = DWilliams
45 = Jacobs
15 = Booker
14 = Richard
55 = Agholor
45 = Ruggs
24 = Renfrow
09 = Zay Jones
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Cardinals 30, Jets 10
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I don’t think anyone was shocked by this outcome…and my only comment is: It was worse than it looked. Of all the teams in the NFL, the Jets are the most likely to go winless this year. Their schedule ahead is brutal, and they are a horrifically bad team/franchise.
Arizona gets a win, but not a quality win. Not sure Arizona has a quality win this year looking back on things. If they lose to Dallas this week, the Cardinals could be in serious trouble of a collapse. The Cards are staring down 5-6 losses in-a-row starting Week 7. They desperately need to win this week to have any playoff hope ahead.
This game was so bad Le’Veon quit the team/got fired. Let’s deal with him first.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Where is Le’Veon Bell going? I’m not sure but I’m laughing at some of the proposed matchmaking going on. Fun to read.
What’s Le’Veon’s motivation right now? He just got paid a ton of money and he’ll never see a big payday again unless he gets with a team where he can be used/be a starter or co-starter. A ‘ring’ is not a big deal because he has that already. This is probably about Le’Veon’s ability to make money now and setting up more money next year.
He needs to go where he thinks he has the coach wrapped around his finger or goes to a high profile team and shows what he can do in a split role.
So, where would that be?
#1a) Chicago Bears
The obvious choice for Bell, and for the team that’s in total despair at RB…and has a chance to be a playoff team this year. They should be all-in and give Bell the job within 2-3 weeks. Nagy would be in awe of Bell…which is what Bell needs.
Matt Nagy is not that swift…or he wouldn’t have cut Mike Davis last year and he still wouldn’t be trying to force David Montgomery to work perpetually. I think acquiring Bell could Nagy the cover to sweep David Montgomery aside and try to juice the run game.
1b) Kansas City Chiefs
The Vegas odds leader.
Le’Veon followed Mahomes on Twitter Wednesday and Mahomes returned the favor. If KC can get him cheap, I think they’d look at it. I don’t think CEH has them all warm and fuzzy feeling yet.
If Bell wants less money, more profile – he goes here.
I just think Bell goes where the most money/opportunity is…but he could take the better team to play for option.
#2) Washington FT
They can win the NFC East, and having a more experienced, legit RB could help. No current FT RB would be offended at taking a back seat to Bell. Ron Rivera can use him as an experiment and cut him if it doesn’t work.
Just think of the Christian McCaffrey-style/based offense Le’Veon could step into here for FF.
#3) Miami Dolphins
Brian Flores is a loon with his RB choices, so not sure he’d even want Bell…but the Dolphins should be (3-3) after this week and have a real shot at the playoffs and they need a real running game. Bell would go to Miami in a heartbeat…he is often spotted there and may live there (among many homes).
Odds this week…
35% = Chicago
25% = Kansas City
10% = Washington
10% = Miami
20% = Wait for the next big RB injury to happen to have max. leverage.
I don’t think it will be…
Baltimore – They don’t need Le’Veon for their wars with Pittsburgh. It sounds cute but not a need.
Las Vegas – This regime has already been burned by ex-Steeler head cases.
L.A. Chargers – RB is not their issue…O-Line is. Not an Anthony Lynn kinda guy.
Buffalo – It’s the O-Line not a lack of RBs. Ditto: Philly.
-- Taking over for Bell will be Gore/Perine and neither are very good and work behind a terrible O-Line and awful QB, so they will do little/nothing for FF as ‘starters’. Perine may catch 3-4-5 passes in games to be PPR useful Flex in deeper leagues.
-- Arizona has been floated as a possible landing spot…a former RB coach for the Steelers with Bell is in Arizona now. Arizona has bigger issues and still they believe in Kenyan Drake (18-60-1) for some reason.
Drake looks very sluggish and feels like he’s about to lose his job. Bell could be a Kingsbury guy…Arizona would be my #4 most likely. Either Bell or Chase Edmonds (3-36-1, 5-56-0/7) is going to be pushing Drake in the next few weeks.
I thought we’d see more signs of the Drake toppling here, but Drake got 18 carries in this blowout…they’re still ‘believing’/trying to get him going.
-- Christian Kirk (5-78-0/7) has a nice game but note that Kyler had all day to throw and that helped push numbers to all, and Kirk got a bump. I wanna say it’s not a big deal but Arizona has Dallas-Seattle-Buffalo-Seattle over the next 6 weeks…four great output potential games that ALL can’t go to D. Hopkins (or maybe they can, they seem to).
Kirk has legit upside hope the next few weeks…but he is a ghost too many times in this low yardage passing game.
-- Jeff Smith (3-23-0/11) didn’t have a big game after his splash debut Week 4…but note that he did have 11 targets, but also note most of what Joe Flacco throws is useless so don’t be too impressed.
Also, note that the moment Breshad Perriman and/or Denzel Mims comes back…it’s the end of the Jeff Smith fairy tale for a while/forever.
Perriman is a sleeper play hopeful, but the schedule ahead is brutal for a #1 WR…MIA-BUF-KC-NE-BYE-LAC-MIA…7 useless weeks ahead for Perriman…or Mims.
Mims might have a moment when both he and Perriman are on the field.
-- Chandler Jones is done for the year, so who steps up for Arizona?
Kylie Fitts (3 tackles) is the natural pass rusher option and played the most snaps in relief (34).
However, you know who came in late as a OLB/DE and played just 10 snaps but rang up 2.0 sacks in that time…my former love child IDP prospect Dennis Gardeck (2 tackles, 2.0 sacks).
My head says Fitts gets the chance. But after re-watching this game, not only did Gardeck get to two sacks (one of his sheer will, the other QB flushed toward him) BUT Gardeck was literally steamrolling his blocker on every pass rush…just brute strength bullying the helpless Right Tackle into the backfield.
I think both will play, Gardeck more on passing downs…and you know I always thought Gardeck would be a monster if he ever got the chance. He may be about to…only as a pass rusher, I thought he’d be a terrific ILB. Hopefully, Gardeck can get a chance that he’s been screwed out of for years in Arizona.
-- John Franklin-Myers (4 tackles, 1 sack) is starting to make pass rushing waves with NYJ. He got his first sack of the year but note that he has 6 QB hits already this year in limited playing time. He’s due for more sacks at the pace he’s going.
Snap Counts of Interest:
34 = Fitts
29 = Chandler Jones
10 = Gardeck
50 = Drake
34 = Edmonds
68 = J Smith
52 = Crowder
24 = Berrios
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Titans 42, Bills 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Battle of the undefeateds…and it goes to the Titans, convincingly. The Bills never seemed to be in this game. Either the Bills aren’t as good as advertised, and/or the Titans are better than I thought, and/or sometimes things don’t make total sense.
My two defenses for Buffalo would be…
1) Missing Tre’Davious White and John Brown is quite a hit…and then also ILB Matt Milano and CB Levi Wallace out on top of that was some heart & soul taken away before kick.
2) When the Chiefs fell this week, and didn’t look sharp, the football world shrugged its shoulders at the oddity. While the Bills fall and everyone ‘knows they’re a fraud’.
Which then we need to add a third thought…
3) The Titans are a really good team, like Buffalo, but don’t carry the same prominence Iike Buffalo prior). We can’t generally believe a Ryan Tannehill-led team that runs the ball a lot can be a top NFL team.
Since Ryan Tannehill took over in Week 7 last season, the Titans are (11-3) in the regular-season and (13-4) adding in the playoffs. In the same span that Buffalo’s been good too, they are (10-5) in the regular season since Week 7 last season (ignoring their Week 17 last season that didn’t matter/Allen sat). (10-6) record with their playoff loss. Since Week 7 last year, Tennessee has a slightly better regular season record than Buffalo and then they won two playoffs games, while Buffalo lost their playoff game.
In a battle of the top unrecognized better/top 5 level type teams in the NFL…the Titans just won a head-to-head matchup, kinda ‘crowning’ themselves the kings of the unloved good-to-great NFL teams.
Tennessee is now (4-0) and has a pretty favorable schedule ahead. 10+ wins easy and the AFC South crown coming their way. Before we get too far out there on them – they won their first three games against very bad teams by 2, 3, and 1 point…before blowing out the Bills. If they lost to Houston next week, I would not be shocked.
Buffalo gets embarrassed on national TV, so you don’t want to be the NFL team that plays them next week! Oops, Week 6 they get the also-just-embarrassed KC Chiefs on Monday Late Afternoon Football this week. We are projecting 9-10 wins for the Bills, more on the ten side…but they are taking on too many hits with injuries the past 2-3 weeks.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Now is the time to buy Josh Allen (26-41 for 263 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) for fantasy! Finally, a nice/lower entry point was created.
…Wait, you’re not excited? Look at that look on your face!
You gotta be kidding me? After everything I’ve written for weeks?
How can you not like going and getting Josh Allen now? Just admit it – you don’t like Josh Allen, do you? You never did. You just pretended to go along with all this Allen-attention. https://youtu.be/IgHThXuheOM
After all this time…after all my words…after me admitting I was wrong…one so-so game and your true colors come out. How can you not like Josh Allen? https://youtu.be/4wMQz3iJDzE
Seriously, you’re not interested now…
Why?
Because you don’t really believe in Allen. Never did. It makes sense. We’ve all lived in a world for 2+ years where Josh Allen was supposed to be terrible, we couldn’t accept that Allen had turned a page/changed anytime he put up decent FF numbers. It was probably more likely he was just on a hot streak/lucky, and you feared that if you bought into it…it was only going to burn you. Now, you saw him look erratic on national TV and his team getting killed…and two picks…and not-300 yards passing – it’s all confirming your fears. Who wants in on that?
Note…that’s exactly what the current Allen holder is thinking. I don’t care what they say out loud or text you…I know their inner monologue. Which means now is the perfect time to strike. They feel like they have a sinking ship about to fully sink…but they can’t let you know that.
NFL teams are lucky to convert 50% of their 3rd-downs in a game or on the season. And usually, in one game, they convert about 4-8 of them. Josh Allen was 13-of-17 on 3rd-downs in this game…which is mind blowing. He didn’t have his best night. Threw some balls offline where WRs had their hands on it but couldn’t haul it in. Had two picks but note that one of them was a clank off a 5th-string WR’s hands and into a Titans defender’s hands. When the Bills got down 28-10, Allen went on a methodical 6+ minute, 14-play, 90-yard drive (converting three 3rd-downs) to close it to 28-16…and then it fell apart on Bills defense and a kick return fumble from there.
A ‘bad’ game from Josh Allen resulted in 264 yards passing, 2 TDs (with 2 picks, 1 fluke one), 18 yards rushing…if that’s the worst it gets that’s OK.
If I owned Deshaun Watson, I’d so offer him straight up for Josh Allen right now.
On my Kyler for Josh Allen + _____ consideration of the past few weeks. That ____ just got a lot bigger. A lot bigger. The marketplace commands it…or you walk away from the negotiating table. If you even want to go there. You don’t have to. Feel free to keep Kyler…I’m just saying – the Allen market just cratered because it was weak-hands holding all along (and when Justin Herbert has a game like this, his stock price will tumble…because people don’t really believe…I also want to note that the Chase Claypool price isn’t as terrible as I thought to still acquire in places, because he wasn’t supposed to be this good – they are trying to trade you a little better version of Travis Fulgham in their minds).
If you don’t believe in Allen, you don’t believe. It’s not a crime.
I think Allen looked very good in a tough game, and considering his defense is all banged up and they can’t run the ball…Allen has to carry the team ahead. Opposing defenses don’t believe in Josh Allen, so they are still daring him to beat them – you want in on that for fantasy.
-- As Allen goes, so goes his top targets...two of them:
1) Stefon Diggs (10-106-0/16) is a threat to be the #1 WR in PPR this year. And because people fear an Allen collapse, they are willing to deal Diggs in the right deal. You’d be surprised, but shouldn’t, that he’s available.
A lot of fantasy experts are writing articles, insider advice to sell off Josh Allen and related pieces ahead of the collapse.
I’m buying Diggs, not desperately…I’m buying smart, trying to expose their true feelings. I don’t care what they text or email me. I assume they are secretly scared like all of football society, and I’m going to run a sword through it…or I walk.
I’d like to trade a hype WR + ___ medium trinket for Diggs.
Like (in redraft) if you have Justin Jefferson and Darrell Henderson and the Diggs owner is desperate for a warm body RB in a redraft this week type of deal. Jefferson-Edmonds (If you don;t need RB depth)? Fuller-Edmonds (fearing Fuller injury)? Lamb-Henderson? Just some food for thought concepts. You might even get a touch more (Diggs + __) if the RB desperation is high for them and not you.
2) John Brown would have made a difference here if active. The Gabriel Davis (5-58-0/9) night would have been more 7-70-0 or 7-70-1 with Brown. A few times Davis ran a different route than Allen expected, and they miscommunicated…that happens with a rookie, not as likely with the more talented Brown.
If you think people don’t believe in Allen…they certainly don’t care about John Brown. He’s like a WR3 acquisition. He’s a layup. He might even be dropped in 10-team leagues. I’m in. All that has hurt him is being out of action/out of the view, and his boring name in general (who is named John Brown anyway…what kind of dull parents did he have?), and with people scared Allen dies and everything falls with him.
-- The fact that the Bills cannot run the ball helps the passing game get pushed more. Devin Singletary (11-25-0, 1-8-0/1) barely could take a step before pressure was on him up the interior. The Bills have an O-Line issue and it’s all but killed any interior run game.
Singletary has one of the lowest ‘yards before contact’ numbers of any RB in the NFL right now.
1.2 avg. yards before contact for the season for Singletary is worse than Zeke Elliott (1.8) or Miles Sanders (1.8) or Le’Veon Bell (1.6) among others working behind corrupted O-Lines that come to mind.
One RB is worse…Zack Moss (0.9).
These are dreadful/foreboding numbers for a running back, and it’s hitting both Buffalo RBs...so it's 'not just one of them'. A terrible schedule of run defenses is heading their way too. I don’t think you can count on Singletary to really help you much ahead. He’s a warm body RB2-3 that Allen was throwing a lot too, but not this game. Moss returning doesn’t help either.
Maybe the O-Line gets tweaked and things get back to normal, but right now, ‘on paper’ this is looking terrible.
-- Ryan Tannehill (21-28 for 195 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 4-42-1) just quietly goes about another 4 TD week. One of the great fantasy QBs of the past 16 NFL weeks and he’s still on and off waivers/people don’t believe.
He doesn’t rack the yards, but he gets the TDs. I wanted us to all consider him as a backup/emergency QB to hold a few weeks ago (if needed) – hope you held (or dumped for Herbert). He’s a higher-end QB1 his past 14-15 games and no one believes it or thinks it will continue…and, yet, it does.
We can’t get our minds wrapped around Tannehill or Josh Allen, but we feel good about Deshaun Watson, Drew Brees, Jared Goff, even the Matt’s (Ryan and Stafford) bouncing back way more than we have confidence in Tannehill.
It’s illogical based on the last 15 starts for all of them, but…we get classically conditioned to names and ‘the past’ and it’s tough to let go. Just look at some of the shirts in your closet you’re holding onto.
-- Tannehill throws to A.J. Brown (7-82-1/9) as his primary but because Tannehill is low yards and lower volume, it’s not always going to be like this game for AJB – plus, if Tre’Davious White played, AJB would have had a 3-35-0 game. Buffalo missing two starting corners was a killer…good for AJB.
Jonnu Smith (5-40-2/7) benefitted from a missing linebacker and the missing corners, but Jonnu is putting up regular 4-5 catch, 40-60 yards games with a TD now, which makes him a god in today’s TE market. If he’s your #2 TE, everyone is coming for him – don’t give it up easy. Make them pay or hold.
‘Any TE is fine’ or ‘there’s plenty of TEs’ is the refrain in the preseason/redraft…and then half+ the league has no viable TE by Week 5 and is in a desperate search for relief and thinks anyone with two good TEs should charitably give one away. Don’t fall for it easily – make them pay or walk away.
-- Who is Nick Westbrook (1-7-0/1)? Hell, if I know… I mean, I know him but I don’t know why he is starting an NFL game in his rookie season of Week 6. There are so many other/better UDFA WRs out there for a team to consider.
Westbrook is capable/solid. Good size (6’2”/215). Solid hands. Was forgettable at Indiana, not-the-teams #1 WR, and battled an ACL tear in college.
Nothing to see here for FF ahead.
-- I recommended the Titans-DST as one to watch to stream ahead because they’re good and have some good schedule moments ahead, but I didn’t not think vs. BUF would be one of them.
Usable next week v. HOU for some.
Weeks 9-12 is where it could get interesting: CHI-IND-BAL-IND…aside from BAL week…if Philip Rivers is still being trotted out there.
Snap Counts of Interest:
47 = AJ Brown
45 = Nick Westbrook
36 = Kalif Raymond
35 = Kroft
25 = Knox
