- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Bills 27, Chargers 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
What a weird game. The Bills let the Chargers hang in this game, and the Fighting Anthony Lynn’s would not accept the gift from Buffalo and just lost in a sad way.
The Bills turned the ball over 3 times, 2 of them on fumbles. The Bills had 9 penalties (to 5) called against them. They were pretty well handling the Chargers but kept letting LAC hang around due to the mistakes…but in the end, the Bills just muscled the Chargers to sleep for the 10-point victory.
The Anthony Lynn highlight reel/classic moment of the week, his bad coaching gem – with under a minute remaining, the Chargers down by 10 and facing a 4th & 27…they throw a Hail Mary, it connects down to the 2-yard line. The Chargers had no timeouts left so they raced down the field to run the next play. 1st & goal from the two…no timeouts left…down by 10…the Chargers race to the line of scrimmage and then inexplicably run up the middle, it gets stuffed and the clock burns and chaos/panic ensues. You have to be a special kind of moron to call a running play at that point…but ‘here’s your sign’.
Needing two scores with less than 0:30 remaining after the Hail Mary, the Chargers ran it, threw it away, and ran it again (QB sneak) to no avail…and ball game. At one point in there, the kicking team was coming onto the field for a field goal (to then go onside kick after to play the clock)…but then they came back off the field to run a play that did nothing. The clock just ran out…a 10-point loss for LAC.
Anthony Lynn is still employed. It’s unbelievable.
The Chargers fall to (3-8)…one more loss and my 7.5 ‘under’ win total bet is home free! If Anthony Lynn wins five in-a-row to end the season, I will quit football analysis. I just gave it the ‘kiss of death’.
Anyone have a job for a former failed football analyst in 2021? I’m good with numbers and my weakness is ‘I care too much’ about doing a good job. And, just note…I’m probably going to wear sweats to the interview…it’s all I own/need anymore.
The Bills are (8-3), a BS Hail Mary/Murray away from being (9-2) and thus one of the top teams in the NFL, by record. The Bills should finish with 11-12 wins and an AFC East title, and their clinching game might be at New England on a Monday Night Week 16. The Bills might be a #3 seed, but possibly a #4 seed if the Titans (who beat them earlier this season) get hot to the finish.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Battle of QBs that I have loved this year… Both played well, but both caught bad breaks here and there to keep their FF scoring down.
Josh Allen (18-24 for 157 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 9-32-1) got knocked out of the game for a few plays on a deep drive (a hit to the knee took him out for a few plays), and Matt Barkley came in to flop and they had to settle for a field goal. Could’ve been an Allen TD drive. Buffalo also ran all over LAC (172 yards rushing total), who lost another linebacker in-game…smart thing to do…taking the ball away from Allen through the air more than usual.
Justin Herbert (31-52 for 316 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 2-0-0) lost a couple goal line TD shots to fluky things, which happens from time-to-time. Including him trying to goal line QB sneak to end the game, but he got stuffed – it would have been a meaningless-to-the-game-result play but would’ve been +6 for Herbert. Overall, he looked fine…better than Allen, honestly…and I mean that in that they are both great/elite QBs right now. And both better than Kyler Murray (I’m starting this drum beat up again) as passers.
I was not happy with the heavy screen pass game all to returning Austin Ekeler (14-44-0, 11-85-0/16) but after re-watching this I understand it a bit more now.
Here’s what you need to know on why LAC was a little stimied in their passing game here, and it’s important for FF interpretations/projections ahead…
1) The Buffalo Bills pass defense is getting its groove back.
The Bills’ defense had several injuries early in the season and were getting thrown on by everyone. Week 5, things started turning around…they’ve squashed most opposing offense’s passing games their last 7 games – including holding Herbert down here (a 50+ yard Hail Mary pushed his numbers over 300+ yards), and holding Mahomes to 225 yards (in bad weather) Week 6. Only Russell Wilson rolled yards up against them lately, BUT that’s a game Buffalo got up so big in that Seattle just threw every play to try to make a game of it.
The top pass defense in 2018 and 2019…it’s starting to peek its head back up in 2020 now.
2) Further evidence of this…
Keenan Allen (4-40-1/10) has been a monster since Herbert took over…nigh unstoppable. Except, Tre’Davious White stopped him here. Allen’s 4 catches were all miracle/tight window throws and catches. It was a grind to get 4 for 40 out of Allen.
Mike Williams (3-26-0/5) was taken out of this game as well.
3) Justin Herbert had a 7-game streak with 2 or more TD passes in-a-row, and then just one TD pass here.
The Buffalo Bills defense is back.
At SF Week 13 might be pretty good for the Bills-DST.
Week 15 at Denver is for sure good. As is Week 16 at NE.
4) Thus, the Austin Ekeler 16 target event…it was actually a smart move by Anthony Lynn. Wait, what did I just type.
Well, he still lost. So…
-- Ekeler is back, so Kalen Ballage (DNP) is probably dead for fantasy upon his return, but you almost have to hold and see what his role will be…or if Ekeler gets hurt again.
I have a feeling Ballage’s owners will be dropping him after Week 13, but we’ll see…
-- Gabriel Davis (3-79-1/4) had a solid FF week with John Brown out…but just 4 targets and his TD catch was off a Cole Beasley TD pass/trick play. Not a sign of an uprising.
-- Devin Singletary (11-82-0, 3-20-0/3) really looked good here, but his problem is not talent…it’s touches. He’s splitting with Moss, and then Josh Allen takes rushing TDs.
In 2019 and 2020 to date, rushing TDs comparison:
15 = Josh Allen
03 = Singletary
-- Two IDPs to point out…
1) BUF LB A.J. Klein (14 tackles, 3 TFLs, 1.5 sacks,1 PD) is smoking hot right now. Klein is averaging 10.0 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 0.67 PDs, 2.3 QB hits per game the past three games.
Since Week 9, he is the #1 IDP LB in FF on a PPG basis…and it’s not even close (Darius Leonard #2).
2) LAC LB Nick Vigil (8 tackles, 1 PD, 1 FF) got to play more when Denzel Perryman got hurt. If Vigil is going to start for a week or two ahead…he’s a really talented player. He could get 6+ tackles a game the next few weeks.
Snap Counts of Interest:
37 = Moss
25 = Singletary
60 = Ekeler
19 = J Kelley
06 = Pope
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: 49ers 23, Rams 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Well, that didn’t go the way I expected.
I thought the Rams had finally found themselves vs. Tampa Bay, and were going to show a wounded 49ers team who was the NFC West boss.
Nope.
There’s a simple rule I should follow here… Kyle Shanahan > Sean McVay.
This game was a battle of two top defenses…only one offensive TD was scored by each team. They also each scored a defensive TD. There were 3 INTs and no passing TDs between the two teams and 4 lost fumbles. It wasn’t a sloppy game – it was a battle between two really good defensive performances. The Rams, I expected. The 49ers D shocked me.
San Fran led this game 17-3 late 3rd-quarter. The Rams chipped it to 17-6 with a field goal, and on the ensuing drive for SF…a Raheem Mostert fumble, scoop-and-score TD for LAR…and suddenly it was 17-13 SF. The Rams then halted the 49ers on their next drive, got the ball back, had a 61-yard Cam Akers run setting up a short TD moments later – within 5 minutes the Rams went from down 17-3 to leading 20-17. I thought it was over for the 49ers at that point.
I was wrong.
The 49ers rallied for two field goals on their final two drives, shutting down the Rams in the process, and hitting the game winner with 0:00 remaining. The 49ers’ season was saved from the brink. The Rams now have more questions than answers suddenly.
The 49ers got two ‘wins’…the game win to go to (5-6) and then the Cardinals botched their game to fall to (6-5) as the #6 wild card leader…so the 49ers are in playoff range – as they pull into a tie for the #7 seed with MIN and CHI, and now just a game behind #6 Arizona. The 49ers are right back in it…and if they stay healthy, make the playoffs, and get Jimmy G. and Kittle back for the playoffs – the 49ers could make a Super Bowl run again. It sounds crazy to even type that.
Because (8-8) might be the #7 seed in the NFC…the 49ers can get there, but they probably need to get to 9 wins to be sure of a spot. They are more projecting (8-8). If the 49ers get in #7 seed, they could face any number of rivals 1st-round of the playoffs: NO, GB, SEA. Teams they are familiar with and have beaten in times of need recently.
I was ready to see the Rams make a run at the NFC West title after handling Seattle and Tampa Bay the last two games prior, but this loss was a killer. Likely ends the long shot NFC West hope (Seattle has such an easy schedule ahead). They are now looking at trying to get good wild card position – being the #1 wild card draws the NFC East winner, so it’s like a BYE week for the #1 wild card. We see the Rams getting 10 wins, being the #1 wild card…and thus they will advance in the playoffs to face the #1 seed, whomever that might be. If they lose to Arizona next week, then there’s even more chaos to this Rams season. Huge game for both teams LAR at ARI Week 13.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First things first… This was one of the best individual performances I’ve seen from a WR this season, or any season. The show Deebo Samuel (11-133-0/13) put on was unreal. This was a huge performance against the #1 pass defense in the NFL in certain metrics.
So, how did Deebo have such a good game facing this defense, matched up with Jalen Ramsey, and working with Nick Mullens?
1) Deebo’s whole game, just about, is now behind the line of scrimmage…screens, pitch pass with him coming across in motion, etc. Jalen Ramsey type cover corners cannot deploy their talents against him.
2) Deebo is becoming A.J. Brown, only better…the guy who is untackleable after the catch. Only Deebo is a very good receiver, and AJB is technically flawed as a WR -- but a monster physically.
3) Kyle Shanahan has made Deebo the center of his offense. Deebo might as well be a running back now. Only instead of handoffs, it’s screens, pitch passes, and jet sweeps…and some straight up handoffs from time to time.
You saw Tyreek Hill Sunday?
You saw D.K. Metcalf Monday?
You see Rodgers-to-Davante every week?
No wide receiver in the NFL has a better plan to get him the ball now than Deebo Samuel by Kyle Shanahan. Deebo is essentially matchup proof now. He’s about to become a mega-star for (PPR) fantasy…I believe.
-- The real star of this game was the 49ers defense. That Rams offense that squashed the Bucs on Monday Night Football…the 49ers squashed them back. How did this happen?
The ‘how’ is what makes them a hot pick up for a DST for Weeks 14-15 (WSH, at DAL).
1) Richard Sherman (7 tackles, 1 INT) returned…and that changes a lot from his play to the morale boost of their leader back on the field.
2) Jason Verrett (5 tackles) looks reborn. The CB combo of Sherman-Verrett is low key one of the best CB-duos in the game now. I can’t even believe I typed that. Good for them. I thought injury ruined Verrett’s career, but he’s clawed his way back.
3) DT Kerry Hyder (4 tackles, 20 sacks, 4 QB hits) has 7.5 sacks this season…a journeyman DT. He finally got a shot. We were pointing him out earlier this season, and he’s never let up.
4) They dumped Kwon Alexander…and there must have been a good reason why they gave him away to NO.
I won’t play them v. BUF Week 13, but I would go for it Weeks 14-15. Since they’ve had a down season, they can be on many a waiver wire. Wild card FF teams starting the playoffs Week 14…take note if you need it.
-- Cam Akers (9-84-1) had a 61-yard run helping the comeback efforts…so, now everyone is excited. But note…
1) 8 carries for 23 yards aside from that 2.9 yards per carry otherwise.
2) played the least amount of snaps among all the Rams-trio RBs in this game, which has been the norm.
-- Raheem Mostert (16-43-1, 2-0-0/2) looked good in this return game for him…it’s just the Rams defense is arguably the best in the game right now.
Jeff Wilson (12-43-0) came off IR and got 12 carries…which made me think: (a) Shanahan is always going to split carries with two RBs, regardless of who they are, and (b) Jerick McKinnon (3-21-0, 2-11-0/3) is going to be the #4 RB when Tevin Coleman returns.
-- Jared Goff (19-31 for 198 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) went from god to goat in the span of a week. Crushing TB last game, getting crushed by SF here.
This is two games in recent weeks where Goff got smoked…vs. SF here, and that Miami game a few weeks ago. It may be that the secondaries of these two teams, their defenses overall…any strong/bad matchup for Goff is major trouble, but he’s fine otherwise – which means the Bucs secretly suck on defense, and we’re all seeing that the last few weeks (when they were terrific the first 6-7 weeks of the season).
Which means…Week 13 is neutral for Goff vs. ARI, but Week 14 v. NE could be the next problem game.
-- All this talk of the 49ers defense, but the Rams defense is better…I think they’re the best in football right now.
They crushed TB last week. Held down Russ two weeks prior. Held SF to 3.5 yards per carry, 0 TD passes, and got three turnovers this game…plus a defensive TD.
The loss is blamed on Goff’s/the offense’s turnovers, not this defense.
Troy Reeder (15 tackles, 1 TFL) started for the injured Micah Kizer...and looks better than Kizer. Reeder has started two games for Kizer this year...and has 11 and 15 tackles in those games with 3 TFLs and 3.0 sacks combined. He gets two more starts ahead, at least, with Kizer on IR.
-- I’ve been promoting Matt Gay (2/2 FG, 2/2 XP) as a sneaky PK play based on his top results last season, his booming leg, and the fact that he’s kicking indoors until Week 16. He’s averaging 10.0 PPG (FPros system) in his first two appearances with the Rams.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
25 = Brown
20 = D Henderson
17 = Akers
63 = Deebo
63 = James
41 = Bourne
44 = Dwelley
31 = Jo Reed
29 = Mostert
25 = J Wilson
18 = McKinnon
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Seahawks 23, Eagles 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I feel like there is at least one game every week I say this on, but we’re here…so, let’s do this: That was maybe the worst football game I’ve ever watched. At a minimum, that was the worst offensive display I’ve seen in a long, long time…at least the worst display since Denver played on Sunday.
You saw it, and if you didn’t…don’t bother to watch. Here’s the summary: Carson Wentz has the yips…he can’t complete the most basic of passes anymore (until the game is out of hand and he’s dumping off passes vs. prevent)…it was sad to watch him spiral on national TV (again). Seattle just moved out of the way and let Wentz fall on his face, while they just threw every pass to D.K. Metcalf and no one on Philly tried to help stop it. It was 23-17 final, but that’s with a garbage time special/TD with 0:12 left. It was really much, much worse than the score showed.
Seattle cruises to (8-3) in a week that saw both the Rams and Cardinals lose. The NFC West is going to Seattle, and possibly the #1 seed with it. Seattle’s defense is rising, and they have Russell Wilson…so they’re as good as any team in the NFC now. Add to that the easy schedule ahead and we should see a (12-4) Seattle walkaway with the NFC West and have a shot to get past New Orleans for the #1 seed.
Philadelphia in this game, this season…just…wow.
We all make fun of ‘someone has to win the NFC (L)East’…but what does it say if you finish in last place in that division? The Eagles are actually still in this…if they can get a surprise win over at GB or v. NO, they can get to 5-6 wins and 6 wins gets them the title but 5 wins might since NYG is going to Colt McCoy and the Washington schedule ahead is not great either.
What has happened to Philly?
1) Carson Wentz seriously has the yips…like a baseball player with mental performance issues. He’s so in his head about throwing the ball that he’s frozen/late on passes with indecision and double-pumping and tap-tap-tapping the ball way too much before a throw…it’s sad to watch. I’ve never been a fan, but he’s better than this…he’s just in a funk.
2) Doug Pederson should’ve benched him at the half, because letting Wentz try and ‘play through it’ is only making it worse. But Pederson will never bench Wentz, so people should stop asking about it.
I think Pederson is playing out an internal war and is trying to get fired -- all at the same time. He obviously hates the GM, who likely took Jalen Hurts without Pederson’s approval/desire…so, Pederson isn’t going to give GM Howie Roseman the satisfaction. Between the GM and owner (and the owner is 99% of the time lunch BFF’s with the GM), they’ve likely turned on Pederson…so now Pederson is a dead man walking at his job. The GM HAS to blame this on the coach with the owner, or the blame goes to the GM.
Pederson wants to leave, and they want him gone. Pederson wants to be fired, so he can get out…because he’ll be hired somewhere else quickly. So, Pederson is not going to make ownership/management desired changes because he (a) doesn’t want to, and (b) if he’s fired…it’s what he wants. Good for his psyche and bank account. He’ll get paid in full upon firing, as he signs a big deal to coach wherever next…he’ll double dip and escape Philly all at the same time. Plus, the Eagles CAP situation for 2021 is so awful that Pederson doesn’t want to be here to swirl down the drain with it for another year.
There is no change coming at QB unless Pederson is fired in-season, which wouldn’t shock me if it happens due to public pressure…but I think the Eagles’ ownership/management wants Pederson to stay for the rest of the season.
Why?
Honestly, the Eagles are going nowhere even if they win the NFC East…so, management might as well let Pederson and Wentz run into a brick wall, don’t win the NFC East, and the HC and QB get blamed for all this. The Eagles are probably the worst planned/salary cap team going into 2021…they have a giant mess to deal with ahead, so winning the NFC East at 6-9-1 or 5-8-1, losing in the playoffs…it does nothing for them now or later. They can’t have some reason NOT to fire Pederson pop up (like ‘winning the division, or then maybe somehow winning a playoff game)…so, firing him now would make some sense. But also, their best chance to lose (which is better for the big picture) is to keep letting Pederson and Wentz hang themselves on national TV weekly – so Pederson will likely not be fired because he’s a useful tool/patsy in more losses for better draft pick position.
Management can then fire everyone after the season ends, find a new coach, hope springs eternal and the fans follow the team, as they do, and buy season tickets regardless.
All I know is – fire up your opposing DST against this Eagles squad right now until Wentz finds himself again…if he even can.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I’m 90%+ certain Carson Wentz (25-45 for 215 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 5-42-0) will remain as the starter for Doug Pederson the rest of the season. If there was the slightest of chance that Pederson sensed Wentz was dying and that a move to Jalen Hurts (1-1 for 6 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) would have been the right things to do…he would have played Hurts more than 2 snaps in this game (and played him more for last few weeks).
The fact that rumors/words leaked that Hurts would get more snaps/opportunities this week…and then he got literally one real play and then out all the game – it’s a message sent by Pederson.
As long as Wentz is in the WRs are dead for fantasy, until Wentz gets over his yips…so Reagor-Fulgham have no real value in redraft now.
I’d love to be in FF-ahead on Hurts for a run as a great mobile QB opportunity, but unless Wentz gets hurt or Pederson is fired…it’s not happening in 2020 (until the season is officially ‘over’ for Philly, which it may not be until Week 17…if even then).
-- There was one thing working with Wentz…Dallas Goedert (7-75-1/10). And it’s been growing for a few weeks now.
I’m back to ‘all the way the hell in’ on Dallas Goedert as the next great NFL and fantasy TE…with one pause… I don’t know what affects Jalen Hurts’ offense, which is going to be like Lamar Jackson’s or more so Taysom Hill’s, will be on the tight end.
All I know is…Goedert looks the best I’ve seen him in a while. He’s over his injury, and his movements are smooth like an elite TE. You will see him rise in redraft rankings and skyrocket on our Dynasty stash rankings.
If you want to acquire Goedert in Dynasty, for the future, best to let Wentz deal him a 3-33-0/6 game next week, or whatever week it happens and then shoot in after him. Hard to make a deal off a stat line like this game, but people may want off anything Philly…so, maybe a deal can be had reasonably. But the better opportunity might be in a week or so (if trading is still open).
Goedert is the better-than-Gronk ‘next Gronk’…but without a prime Tom Brady to work with, so we have to be cautiously optimistic. He’s just been so buried in Philly for years (again, another reason Pederson needs to go) we all kinda forgot about him because he isn’t touching the ball on the regular. Now, he is.
…as soon as Zach Ertz returns, Pederson/Wentz will lean that way and…that’s maybe your window to buy lower.
-- Not much to say about the Seattle offense in this game. Russell Wilson completed 22 passes for 230 yards and 77% of the yards and nearly 50% of the completions went to D.K. Metcalf (10-177-0/13).
The lesson learned here is: no one besides DKM matters in the passing game (as it should be).
My actual Seattle offensive notes…
1) I’ve been talking about Russ ‘not cooking’ for weeks, but now others are starting to realize it…
The first few weeks of 2020 season, Wilson was #1-2-3 in FF-output. Then he started to glide to #5 range midseason…and since Week 8, he’s the #8 QB in fantasy PPG…with Kirk Cousins about to pass him (in that stretch). Russ is a QB1, but not a top five QB1 in this new run game + defense Seattle approach.
2) I’ve been trying to sound an alert that Tyler Lockett’s (3-23-0/4) decline the past several weeks was a ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that Russ was slipping (for FF). Basically, Lockett is a WR4 unless facing Arizona…and they have no more games scheduled with the Cardinals.
3) The tight ends don’t matter in the passing game…
My ‘watch out for Will Dissly’ (0-0-0/0) alerts ended up a zero. When I’m wrong on this type of thing, it’s usually because it’s a week early. So, we’ll all drop him…and he’ll be 3-40-1 next week and we’ll all be piling back in. Hard to trust him after this first non-Olsen result has been dealt. And the passing game is declining in general.
Jacob Hollister (2-11-0/5) played less snaps but got all the meager pass targets.
Colby Parkinson (0-0-0/0) didn’t see any work but did play 11 snaps. He could be the star of the group…in the future…not now.
-- Chris Carson (8-41-1, 2-18-0/2) got back to work and was solid, looked fine. Seattle kept him fresh with a Carson-Hyde mix -- and Seattle was controlling this game, so why push Carson heavy? The schedule ahead may allow Carson to split/stay fresh for the upcoming playoff run.
-- Boston Scott (2-7-0, 5-40-0/60 had some numbers here, but all the passing game stuff was final drive pure, unadulterated garbage time/meaningless stuff. There is no worry about Miles Sanders (6-15-0, 2-7-0/3) being cut into for touches. Seattle’s run defense is good, Philly’s O-Line and QB are not, and everything got shut down.
-- Jumping on Seattle-DST several weeks ago was a call by us that seemed like lunatic rantings…but now you’re grateful you chased it…or pissed you didn’t.
The defense is getting better each week. The Carlos Dunlap (2 tackles, 0.5 sacks) addition is an obvious boost. Rookie Jordyn Brooks (5 tackles, 1 PD) is starting to get more integrated also helps. But the big thing was getting starting CB Shaquill Griffin (4 tackle, 1 PD) back this game. When they get CB Quinton Dunbar back, then it gets even better.
Again, the schedule is really the thing driving this as much as anything.
Facing Colt McCoy, Sam Darnold, Alex Smith the next 3 weeks…your faith in grabbing Seattle several weeks ago, to get ahead on it, per my alerts – it may be the little thing that gets you over the top this season.
-- Everyone is going to get down on the Eagles everything, but we have to note…they played a helluva game here. They were flying to the ball. They fought hard all game and really held Seattle in check…except Darius Slay could not handle D.K. Metcalf. The offense is not helping the defense either.
If the Eagles win one of their next two, and breathe some life into themselves…Week 16 at Dallas might be a spot they might be useful in.
Snap Counts of Interest:
43 = Sanders
26 = B Scott
71 = Goedert
22 = R Rodgers
05 = C Wilson
48 = Dissly
37 = Hollister
11 = Parkinson
41 = Hyde
25 = Carson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Falcons 43, Raiders 6
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Wow. Just wow.
Why I even bother to try to figure out what team will win/cover what game each week is a colossal waste of my time.
Coming into this game, Las Vegas was the team almost sweeping the Chiefs and playing good football overall. The Falcons played a game like this (on the losing end) just last week…falling out of the playoff picture (for the most part) and rolling over on their interim coach (because they got their original coach fired) in a bad loss to the Saints.
So, of course the bad team with nothing to play for beats the really good team with a lot to play by 37 points.
This game was just 6-3 Atlanta with 4+ minutes before halftime. Atlanta lined up for and missed an easy field goal, but a Raiders’ defender rolling out of control ended up hitting the kicker well after the kick…penalty called…1st-down…soon after a TD. From the moment the Raiders had stopped the Falcons via missed field goal with 4+ minutes ‘til halftime, but then the penalty was called – Atlanta then went on a 37-3 run from there for a blowout win.
For Las Vegas (6-5) it is a crushing blow to their season/playoff hopes. This was a gimme win…and they lost…in extreme fashion. They should’ve won and had a path to 10 wins and a for-sure wild card berth…now, they will have to scramble to get to (9-7) and hope they own a tiebreaker among the 9-win cluster to get in. Week 14 vs. Indy might be the season for both of those teams…the loser being out of the playoffs in the end.
Atlanta gets to (4-7) and kinda creeps back into the playoff picture on a long shot basis. Two games behind Arizona. But their schedule ahead will crush them, and they’ll finish with 4-5 wins.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The biggest player news from this game is the leg injury to Josh Jacobs (7-27-0). My early guess is he misses Week 13. If it were the playoffs, maybe he tries to get back but he got hurt pretty good…and Week 13 is at the Jets – they don’t need him to reaggravate/push himself…just use the time as like a bye week.
If Jacobs is out, then Devontae Booker (5-6-0, 1-0-0/4) is going to be an RB1 threat for Week 13 vs. NYJ. Booker has been great in relief of Jacobs in spots/spurts all season. It’s not a guaranteed home run, but Booker has been solid+ all season and the Jets are a nice matchup.
It doesn’t appear Jacobs will be out longer than a week, but we’ll see what the word is Wed-Fri this week on that front. My guess is one week, for now.
-- Booker elicits the same cautious FF-optimism…like when we all found out Todd Gurley was out, and Brian Hill (13-55-0, 0-0-0/1) was drawing the start. I thought Hill was a nice pickup for a possible shot at an RB1 last week, as we all did.
The RB who did become an RB1 here was not Hill, but Ito Smith (12-65-1, 4-10-0/5)…outta nowhere. Hill started and was the obvious lead, but Ito sprinkled in early as a 3rd-down back of sorts. When it was a game for the 1st-half, everything was bottled up for either RB. When it got out of hand, Ito was running well and they just kept rolling with the little used back through the blowout and a good FF-game resulted for Smith.
Is it Hill or Ito next week?
I’m guessing a split/hot hand approach, where I still like Hill…Atlanta has favored Hill over Ito all season with both head coaches, so no reason to think good Ito numbers in a blowout changes that – BUT it’s on the table/a worry for Hill now after seeing this result.
-- After his Week 11 ‘zero’, Hayden Hurst (4-48-0/8) bounced back with a solid game. Good target counts, but man…watching Matt Ryan (22-39 for 185 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) throw to him is painful.
Hurst has probably lost out on at least 10 catches and 2-3 TDs this season to date from Ryan misfiring to the wide open TE.
All you can do is keep rolling with Hurst…unless you got Kelce-Waller.
Hurst played less than 50% of the snaps here…but he was questionable all week (ankle), and this was a blowout, so he got pulled out for his own good it appears.
-- The state of the Raiders’ WR Union:
Nelson Agholor (5-54-0/6) is still the #1 WR look for Carr, and sometimes he gets a TD with his 3-5 catches for 30-60 yards in a game, and sometimes he doesn’t. He didn’t here.
Hunter Renfrow (7-73-0/9) had a nice FF game here (PPR), but these types of games are too few and far between – Renfrow is a Pro Bowl slot WR talent waiting to happen but Derek Carr isn’t going to make that happen.
Henry Ruggs (3-56-0/5) is flashing moments, but everyone outside of Agholor at WR is usually a bystander getting 1-3 targets a game to work with. I’m not seeing any uptick with Ruggs on the field.
Bryan Edwards (1-15-0/2)…I can see some of the athletic ‘it’ in his limited work/targets. I know why he was a Week 1 starter out of nowhere, and why people thought he was the best WR in camp – he has the goods. He’ll not get to display them in 2020, sadly. 2021 is a big question mark too, but there’s hope for 2021…hope that Edwards is too good to keep bottled up.
-- This was a game/matchup where Derek Carr (22-34 for 215 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) needed to put the hammer down and wreck the Falcons and have us all saying ‘Carr is not so bad, you could win a Super Bowl with him’. Instead, Carr crapped the bed with 3 sacks (against a team that doesn’t rush the passer well), 3 lost fumbles, and a pick.
This may have been the game the Raiders start to wonder if Carr really is their future. You cannot flop like this in a must-win game over an inferior pass defense.
-- Weeks 8-10, the Raiders defense held the Browns to 6 points, beat the Chargers holding them to a respectable (in 2020) 26 points, and then beating Denver holding them to 12 points. You forgive them for allowing 30+ to KC Week 11.
With all that, I thought Week 12 at ATL might not be bad for the Raiders-DST…instead, it was a nightmare. A good chunk of it was on Carr losing 3 fumbles. The Falcons only had 304 total yards…185 yards passing and just 3.9 yards per carry with their 125 yards rushing. It wasn’t an Atlanta offensive explosion, just a Las Vegas comedy of errors.
This kinda-sorta wasn’t what it looked like for the Raiders-DST. I have some faith in them against the Jets Week 13…although it got reduced a bit seeing this. In reality, it wasn’t as bloody for the defense as it looked/appeared.
*Regular Tuesday Video Q&A moved to Wednesday, at the normal time (8:00pm-9:30pmET)
Snap Counts of Interest:
39 = Br Hill
28 = Ito Smith
37 = Hurst
34 = Stocker
25 = Graham
38 = J Jacobs
22 = Booker
42 = Ruggs
42 = Agholor
41 = Renfrow
19 = Br Edwards
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Patriots 20, Cardinals 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I watched it live. I watched it again Monday for study purposes…I still have no idea how Arizona lost this game.
I’ll blame it on Kliff Kingsbury.
Arizona had a:
34/26 minute time of possession advantage.
3rd-down conversion advantage (43% to 37%).
Total yards advantage (298 to 179)
1st-down advantage (23 to 16)
The Cardinals had the better quarterback, and their defense was arguably as good as the Patriots.
So, how do you lose this game? It helps if you walk in with a huge QB advantage…and the decide to feature your expensive, overrated, low ypc in most games running back Kenyan Drake instead.
It also doesn’t help when your passing game is all WR based and then an opposing defense takes away your WRs in good coverage, and you have no ‘other gear’ to shift to in the passing game.
Throw in a missed field goal trying to take the lead with 1:52 left…and you lose.
Now, three losses in Arizona’s last 4 games. It really should be 4 losses in a row, if not for the Hail Mary beat on Buffalo. It really should be five losses in a row because they were thoroughly outplayed by Seattle Week 7 when they won that game in OT on Sunday Night Football.
Arizona is now (6-5), lucky to not be (4-7) and their season going down the drain. The shame of it is – this is a decent Arizona team. No longer a defensive liability, and plenty of offensive talent to win games. Their Week 13 game hosting LAR is going to be the season, in a sense, for both teams…the loser is going to be sent reeling with back-to-back losses and falling out of any NFC West title talk. I think it will be Arizona losing to the Rams -- and thus the Minnesota Vikings will start moving ahead of the Cardinals for the 7th wild card spot and Arizona will end the season (if they lose Week 13) at (8-8) and likely miss the last wild card.
New England is now (5-6), they should be (2-9)…they are the worst 5 win team in the NFL this side of the Chicago Bears. You’ll need 9 wins to have a shot at the AFC wild card, but more likely 10 wins. If New England wins 4 or 5 of their next five games…Bill Belichick should be awarded a medal. I think they can get to 8 wins, with pressure towards being a 7-win team in the end. Theirs is almost no way they can get to 9 wins…but never rule out Belichick.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Kyler Murray (23-34 for 170 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT, 5-31-0) Report…
It wasn’t his finest hour, but he didn’t look bad or lost or under any major duress.
Three issues…
1) The Patriots covered the WRs well. And they put decent pressure on him off the edges keeping him in the pocket and up the middle, not getting outside to make plays/extend plays.
2) Kyler/this offense had no answer to the covered WRs or getting Kyler away from being boxed in.
3) Part of the ‘no answer’ was no Kyler running plays on purpose…which is killing Kyler’s FF-vibe. The past two weeks, just 5 rushes and each game. The prior four games he ran the ball 10-14-11-11 times for 60+ yards each game and 5 rushing TDs. Just 23.0 rushing yards per game with no TDs in the last two weeks, and ‘surprise’ both losses.
If Kyler’s not running…we’re screwed for fantasy, because this Air Raid is not impressive at all for the passing game. Kyler’s been under 300 yards passing in 10 of 12 games this season. At/under 270 yards passing in nine of 12 games this season.
The next two weeks Kyler faces two of the most impressive defenses in the NFL – the Rams and the Giants. Kyler might run out of FF-gas before we get to the FF-finish line. All you can do is ride him all the way…he got you here.
…unless you have Justin Herbert or Josh Allen as well.
Kyler did have a TD pass right before the half, but it was ruled an inch short as time expired…it was that kind of FF-day for Kyler.
*Side Note: In my 3 Things/5 Players Report for Week 12, I noted Brett Hundley as the Kyler backup/handcuff. I was educated later by a faithful FFMer that my statement was likely not true – that Chris Streveler is the backup.
Streveler is the listed backup. He has played some in-season in specialty situations a la a Taysom Hill type QB. If it came down to it, I’m not sure if Arizona wouldn’t go with the experienced Hundley if in the playoff hunt – or if they see Streveler has more juice and would try and ride him.
With a little extra research on the subject, I think it is Streveler as the backup who would go in for Kyler – but it’s not a 100% for sure.
This is an FYI for those in deeper leagues where this would matter.
-- The more I watch Damien Harris (14-47-0) the more I think he’s one of the 3-5 best running backs in the NFL that I’m watching work each week the past month+.
That claim is kinda FF-meaningless since Harris does all his work between the 20s and is out of the game for others in the passing game or near the end zone. Why? I have no idea.
Two stud RBs who get treated like nobodies in their coach’s RBBC: Damien Harris and Darrell Henderson.
My 2020 life quote: Running backs are random timeshare and injured garbage, and I’ll never value them highly again in fantasy.
I tried this one COVID year to play RB heavy -- and it’s the worst year to have ever tried it. I will literally scissor kick anyone who tries to deny my long-complained claims that elite QBs and Travis Kelce aren’t as/more important than 99% of the Fantasy RBs each season.
-- Andy Isabella (4-33-0/6) drew the start for COVID Larry Fitz. The first play of the game, he took a little man-in-motion pitch pass and weaved around 4-5-6 guys to turn a 2-yard play into a sweet 19-yard pop to get things started…and then was never really involved in the offense again.
This is what worries me about Kyler…Kirk and Hopkins were taken away, Isabella would have been the matchup to expose, the game began with an example of it – and then they never go to it again, no real purposed plan by Kliff, and no vision by Kyler.
…and Christian Kirk (3-19-0/6) is a giant waste in this offense as well. The wrong style WR for this offense playing on the wing as a deep ball guy. Kirk should be in the Larry Fitz role, and Isabella should be in the Kirk role, the way Arizona plays offense. But what do I know? 170 yards passing and no passing TDs and a loss to New England says I might have reason to be heard.
-- Arizona isn’t moving away from Kenyan Drake (22-78-2, 3-15-0/4) and towards Chase Edmonds (6-29-0, 4-14-0/5) and more Kyler – no, they are leaning even MORE into Drake. Congrats! You hired a college coach offensive whiz with a gimmick offense, and the offense has devolved into Kenyan Drake runs between the guards. Sweet! Season ticket sales will be booming in 2021.
I have thought that there would be no way Arizona will throw 2021 free agent money at Kenyan Drake…now, I’m not so sure they won’t trade Kyler and install Drake at quarterback. Drake is somehow the key to the franchise, apparently.
Who knew the secret sauce of the Air Raid was smaller RBs running up the middle for 3.5 yards per carry? I learn something new every day.
-- Jakobi Meyers’ (5-52-0/6) interesting run as a PPR monster for New England is stalling out. He had that one massive game vs. the Jets (enough said) for 12 catches, 169 yards, and 14 targets – outside of that he just keeps repeating 4-6 catches for 50-60 yards with no TD games. Solid, but not FF-worthy/exciting.
The two starting WRs for this game on the first play = Byrd-Harry…but Meyers did play 94% of the snaps. It’s just odd he’s been so good and not on the field as a starter no matter the alignment.
-- Isaiah Simmons (6 tackles, 1 sack) helped Arizona lose this game with a helmet-to-helmet on Cam running out of bounds, an extra 15 yards that boosted New England into FG range with less than a minute left. Had the penalty not occurred, I’m not sure the Pats could’ve gotten into range in time (and thus the game head to OT)…because Arizona’s defense was really good otherwise (and the Pats stink on offense).
Besides that, Simmons looks FF-terrific of late – 8.0 total tackles, 1.5 TFLs, and 1.0 sacks per game, while only playing about half the defensive snaps per game.
-- Do you know who New England’s top linebackers are?
Ja’Whuan Bentley (13 tackles), who is averaging 8.6 total tackles per game the past 5 games and Terez Hall (7 tackles), who I don’t even remember from college or pro work ever…he’s played 4 games since being signed by the Pats, and is averaging 6.8 total tackles per game with the opportunity – and only playing about 50% of the snaps in games +/-.
-- Arizona’s defense is really playing well, and I need to issue a formal apology to D-C Vance Joseph, who I mocked all preseason. The offense looks erratic…the defense looks rock solid. They really squashed NE’s offense here, and gave Seattle fits two weeks ago. They shut down Buffalo for a large chunk of their battle…and the Bills/Josh Allen had to be great to get to 30 points. I’ve been more impressed with Joseph’s defense than Kingsbury’s offense.
Week 13 vs. LAR might be OK with the Cardinals-DST.
Weeks 14-16 could be sweet…at NYG, PHI, SF.
-- The Patriots-DST has been OK this year (#15 DST in PPG this season to date), but they don’t have as favorable a schedule ahead…
Weeks 13-16: at LAC, at LAR, at MIA, BUF…not good, except Miami if Tua is starting.
Snap Counts of Interest:
34 = Dam Harris
20 = JWhite
41 = Drake
33 = Edmonds
72 = Hopkins
64 = Kirk
41 = Isabella
09 = KeeSean
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Football Team 41, Cowboys 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Washington got the ball first here and went three and out. Dallas got their first drive and they were chopping their way down the field…and on the 7th play of the drive, OL Cam Erving got hurt…and I was like ‘that’s not good’ (as someone who picked Dallas -3.0). Four plays later, top Dallas OL Zack Martin got hurt, and you knew it was serious…and I was like, ‘Well, I can go get something to eat and just let this record and catch up to it in a bit because Dallas isn’t going to win this game; no chance in hell’.
And that was the correct assessment.
The loss of the two O-Linemen on the first drive on top of the life loss of their strength and conditioning coach during the practice week – all killers mentally. The already fragile O-Line was finally getting some health back the last few weeks for Dallas…and they lost it all on one drive. Game over. Season over.
Dallas was going to win this division if they kept that O-Line they had intact, but now that’s done – and we are very likely going to see a Washington v. Giants battle to the end to get that title. The Eagles are about to fall off a cliff even more with their tough schedule stretch ahead.
Dallas is now (3-8), and an NFC East team HAS to get to at least 6 wins to claim the prize (NFC East title). It’s a real long shot Dallas can get to 5 wins, much less 6 wins now with their O-Line. It’s not totally coffin nailed shut, but the hammer and nails are out.
Washington is now (4-7) and right in the thick of things, but they have the worst schedule ahead. Weeks 13-16: at PIT, at SF, SEA, CAR…very possibly four losses. If they get one win in there, then the 5-win Football Team would face Philly Week 17 for all the marbles, potentially.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- So, a few of us FFMers got into a great depression to start the fantasy week with the weak J.D. McKissic (1-6-0, 2-21-0/2) output here. It’s the risk – as I’ve said 20+ times the past 3-4 weeks, when Washington can get up ahead on a team -- they will run it out/run the clock/keep it out of the QB’s hands. Thus, in this game -- Antonio Gibson with 20 carries, and Peyton Barber with 11…and Washington with a killer 36/24 time of possession edge.
McKissic in the passing game wasn’t really needed. JDMK had the same dull result (in PPR) like a generic starting RB getting 10-12 carries for 50 yards and no TD and 0-1 catches. McKissic laid an egg, but who thought Washington would get up on Dallas and just run it out in the 2nd-half? Smart for the NFL, great for Gibson…bad for J.D.
Likely a very different story at Pittsburgh Week 13…
-- The most attention-getting player, for me, in this game…Logan Thomas (4-20-1/4, 1-3-0, 1-1 for 28 yards passing).
In this game: He ran a wildcat play. He ran a play setting him up as a passer. The guy was a 2nd-round pick QB several years ago, a dumb one…but it happened. So, he can throw the ball…especially in a gadget situation.
My only question is – why did this take so long for Washington to come up with? How ignorant must their coaching staff be? Be that as it may…it’s happened now. It makes Thomas standout a bit more as a TE who does ‘other things’ for FF options. He’s a TE1 for us ahead when we adjust projections after Week 12 fully books for the league.
-- The most impressive player in this game, Terry McLaurin (7-92-0/9). He looks so dominant…it’s just a shame the QB play is so horrific. I never thought he’d be much more than a #3 WR in the NFL, at best, but man was I wrong. I’m shocked.
Watching him makes me wonder…what in the hell did former Ohio State Head Coach Urban Meyer see in players, anyway?
McLaurin was not featured fully at Ohio State…at the same time Joe Burrow couldn’t play ahead of Dwayne Haskins?
This offseason, I’m sure several NFL teams will back up a Brinks truck to try and land Urban as head coach.
-- Not much to say about Dallas…same old non-Dak Cowboys returned on offense – led by the all-to-typical now… Ezekiel Elliott (10-32-0, 1-7-0/3) doing little and fumbling.
I’ll give him the grace…once they lost Erving and Martin, it was over for the team…and for Zeke’s season of production remaining. Zeke was making a comeback last week, with the healthier O-Line…it’s all gone now. You’re in trouble with Zeke ROS.
-- The Washington-DST scored well here…a pick six TD. Holding Dallas to 16 points. But they benefited from Dallas’s O-Line falling apart, and still Andy Dalton (25-35 for 215 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) didn’t have a bad game…just the ‘Boys died with the O-Line and Washington controlled clock – those are not normal things for Washington.
You can’t start the WSH-DST vs. PIT Week 13.
Not sure Week 14 at SF is great either, but we’ll see who is healthy or not for SF at that time.
Weeks 15-16 vs. SEA and CAR are not great either.
-- My boy, Cole Holcomb (10 tackles, 1.5 TFLs) had a nice game.
Since he became a starter Week 6 on…he has a solid 6.0 total tackles, 0.67 TFLs, 0.22 sacks per game. He’s getting there…getting better and better. Hope is still alive!
-- DAL SAF Donovan Wilson (10 tackles) became a starter Week 4 and has averaged 6.4 total tackles per game, and he has 9.5 total tackles per game the past two weeks. He has also forced 3 fumbles the past four games.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
39 = Zeke
21 = Pollard
62 = McLaurin
55 = Cam Sims (no targets, I give up)
13 = Stv Sims
45 = Gibson
28 = McKissic
17 = Barber
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 12 Game Analysis: Texans 41, Lions 25
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
All you need to know here is the Lions, coming off getting shut out by the Panthers, playing at home on Thanksgiving (which is supposed to mean some magical turkey-based powers are activated), the Lions laid another egg – and thus the head coach and GM were fired on Saturday.
If you are keeping score at home…that’s three head coaches fired early this 2020 season – HOU, ATL, and DET. What do they all have in common? Ex-Patriot guys who breathed Belichick farts for a few years and thus were considered great head coaching and GM prospects for the NFL.
No business could be any bigger/more in the spotlight day-to-day than the NFL…and yet no business mismanaging themselves more than the NFL. Ex-Pats’ Bill O’Brien…gone. Matt Patricia…gone. GM Bob Quinn, DET…gone. GM Thomas Dimitroff, ATL…gone.
Brian Flores, if I were you…I’d ‘rent not own’. You know what I mean?
Next coaching tree about to get exposed/chopped down, but no one will ever admit it is…the Andy Reid tree. Doug Pederson and Matt Nagy will be gone soon. But good luck to whatever sucker, I mean billion-dollar franchise hires Eric Bieniemy as their head coach. I mean, what would Patrick Mahomes be if not for Bieniemy?
It won’t be long before there is a bidding war for that Belichick offspring coach with the mullet. I don’t even know his name. It doesn’t even matter. He’ll be hired based upon submission to a DNA test. I mean, how did he get his current job?
Where was I?
Oh, yeah…the Texans suck, corrupted by their ex-Patriot loving management team (and the interim coach is an ex-Pat too) – but they were 10x better than the Lions’ ex-Patriot ways this week. The Lions got out to an impressive 7-0 lead on the first drive, and then got outscored 41-10 over the next 48 minutes of play.
Houston is now (4-7) and all I even care about is – can they get to 8 wins and pay off my ‘over’ 7.5 wins preseason bet? That notion was all but dead, but three wins in their last 4 games has hope springing eternal. If I can get them to split (worst case) with their two Indy games ahead, I might pull this off…at least I have a chance.
Detroit now turns to the only coach worse than Matt Patricia…O-C Darrell Bevell. Truly, arguably, the single worst football mind in the NFL…now that Norv Turner is out of coaching. Hold on, Anthony Lynn is calling me…
Bevell is the worst – terrible offensive mind that is all about running the ball. Players don’t like him…just ask all the former Seattle players from the Seahawks’ Super Bowl era. It will be good/normal for Swift and AP, and down/normal for Stafford and the passing game. Kenny Golladay should milk his injury and stay away from all this. The Lions likely won’t win another game this year…unless they surprise Chicago Week 13 due to confusion on no tape of Bevell ‘in charge’ of a game, and Nagy trying to claim top prize in the ‘worst coach’ sweepstakes…plus, the Bears are as bad as the Lions, almost.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- How will the new head coach for Detroit affect the running game? Likely, no different than where they were.
D’Andre Swift (DNP) will be the lead and Adrian Peterson (15-55-2) and Kerryon Johnson (11-46-0, 4-52-0/4) will still suck/be useless as backups and get a few touches here and there. Why the Lions do not cut Peterson and allow him to go to a contender, and free up touches for younger guys, is baffling…and then is absolutely not baffling because the NFL is the worst run business you know of.
Jonathan Williams (1-5-0, 4-21-0/4) came out of nowhere/the practice squad to get some work in this game. Williams filled in for injured Marlon Mack last year for two back-to-back games, where he ran for 100+ yards in back-to-back games – and that got him unsigned in the offseason and buried on the Lions practice squad. If you think they’ll give him more touches ahead of AP or after releasing AP…you’re out of your mind.
Also, note…this was kinda the Kerryon Johnson stat line I was hoping for as a my ‘gut feeling’ play of the week. Always a week too early for me it seems…
-- Matt Stafford (28-42 for 295 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) has had a useless season, and the switch in HC will do nothing for him. The same offense and flow, or more running is on tap ahead. And that goes for all the related weapons.
Garbage time points in constant deficit might be possible, but that’s not really happened much so far in this losing season.
-- Deshaun Watson (17-25 for 318 yards, 4 TDs/0 INTs) has been straight fire for the 6 games…15 TDs/0 INT in his past six with four 300+ yard passing games.
His sweet run has come against the #26, #13, #29, #19, #15, #23 pass defenses (yards per game) in the league…with many of them missing top defenders for that specific game.
I’m not trying to undercut/downplay the DeShaun run, but I am. If he rolls it up against IND-CHI-IND #5-10-5 in pass yards allowed per game) the next three weeks, then I’ll think a real change has occurred.
-- Part of what is helping Deshaun is the fact that the Texans cannot run the ball. Houston is 2nd worst in the NFL in rushing yards per game, only the Bears are worse.
If you think the run game turns up with David Johnson back next week…for that IND-CHI-IND stretch, you’re sadly mistaken. That’s the #3-14-3 run defenses (by yards per game) to face in the league. It’s also #3-8-3 in yards per carry allowed.
-- My Jordan Akins (0-0-0/2, 1-4-0) enthusiasm was greeted with a turkey leg to the cranium…his best play was a 1st-down conversion run as a fullback.
Akins did have two TDs in his hands, which would’ve gotten him a 15+ point day but he had his longer TD pass/catch knocked out of his hands in the end zone as he grabbed it. And the second one he was wide open in the end zone and Watson threw it a yard to high and a yard to far away…and Akins could only get fingertips on it.
Akins faces the great Indy defense against the TE in two of the next 3 weeks, if you want to drop for something else…feel free in that span.
-- What else won’t help Akins ahead…Kahale Warring (0-0-0/1) is active, finally. The Texans need to see what they got here. His one route this game, it was early on…and all I can say with this one flash of NFL time, this one target (two routes) to look at – those are some REALLY fast feet for a tight end.
Warring played two snaps early (1st series), got a target on one of them…then I can’t remember when he was in for his other two snaps played.
The Texans need to push Warring, to see what they have…which means they won’t.
Deeper Dynasty rosters…time to stash on him if you’re interested. He may get more time and attention from here on in. Now, that he is finally playing in an NFL game we can start to assess and compare, etc. My first brief look here – interest piqued again, but I need to see more tape to get a better feel. He’s barely played against NFL competition in two years.
-- The Texans defense is bad, BUT…
Held last three opponents to 20 points or less…well, not this game but subtract out a garbage time TD allowed 4th-quarter and you’re there…they otherwise shut down Detroit after the Lions scored right away to start the game.
Week 14 at CHI…maybe not the worst DST option in the world?
Week 16 hosting Cincy…is that a possible-legit title game DST option?
Just sayin’, just looking ahead…trying to find hope…
Snap Counts of Interest:
39 = Kerryon
22 = AP
21 = Jon Williams
68 = Marvin
39 = Sanu
25 = Agnew
25 = Cephus
42 = Duke J
10 = Prosise
04 = Scottie Phillips
30 = Ph Brown
28 = Fells
26 = Akins
04 = Warring
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Chiefs 35, Raiders 31
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The mainstream storyline from this game was: the Raiders played a good/admirable game, and had the Chiefs down, but Patrick Mahomes made magic at the end and pulled out a win we all thought KC would retaliate on LV…everyone walks away loving KC, as they did walking in.
I walked away with a different take…
Everyone assumed KC would come into this game, blow out the Raiders, and gain vengeance for Las Vegas daring to beat/upset them earlier in the year. Had KC won this game like 40+ to 14, then that assumption going into the game would have held true in reality/outcome.
That’s not what happened.
Instead, the ‘supposed’ (by the masses and media) inferior Raiders jumped on KC right away…a 7-0 lead after the first drive. KC tied it, as they do…Vegas came right back with a TD to take the lead. KC tied it up after that, as they do…and then Vegas hit a field goal to go into halftime with a 17-14 lead.
After a half, there was no blowout…but more importantly, the Raiders not playing in fear of the big, bad Chiefs. For the second time in a row they came out firing, not trying to run heavy and hide from Mahomes – they decided to go toe-to-toe.
After the half, in the 3rd-quarter, KC stole the lead back 21-17…Las Vegas answered to go up 24-21. The Chiefs answered that with 5 minutes left…28-24 KC. Just hold the Raiders on the next possession and KC wins. We all assumed they would. Nope. Raiders go right down the field and score a TD to take a 31-28 lead with 1:43 left.
Yes, that’s too much time left for Mahomes…but consider the Raiders whacked KC a few weeks ago. And they just went punch for punch with KC for 58+ minutes, to this point. If the Chiefs fumbled a snap or had a tipped pass pick…the Raiders would have swept the Chiefs in 2020. Mahomes led the comeback, and the Raiders lost and everyone goes home thinking what they already thought on KC and LV.
Everyone in the NFL, and among the fans and analysts are in fear/have huge respect for KC. You know who doesn’t? The Raiders. You know who is going to give KC fits for years in upcoming seasons – the Raiders. Don’t be surprised if the future power of the AFC West is Las Vegas. Jon Gruden is doing a masterful job of NFL coaching and motivating. He has built something and it’s still in progress with Mike Mayock at GM. The Raiders are going to be a future power in the years to come…and they might give a glimpse of it this season once they get a wild card.
The Raiders are now (6-4)…losses to high-end teams, mostly – KC, TB, BUF (and a loss to NE). They have a favorable schedule to the finish, which should get them to 10 wins, possibly 11. They are going to be an AFC wild card because they should land at least 10 wins this season.
The Chiefs aren’t as good as we all think…and I have a funny feeling they are going to get beat up the Bucs this week. I initially picked the Chiefs -3.0 over TB, because I don’t trust TB…but now I’m getting worried that KC’s 2020 is beating a bunch of bad teams and losing to LV, almost twice, and beating a good Buffalo team that was weather-hampered – that they may not be battle-tested like Tampa Bay, that TB will have the chip on their shoulder in this one that KC is not used to facing. KC is likely to get to 13-14 wins…and we’ll see if that’s good enough to get past the Steelers for the #1 seed. It might not be.
What if KC is a #2 seed and faces Las Vegas in Round One? There might not be a repeat title for KC this season.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The chronicles of the KC backfield…
Clyde Edwards Helaire (14-69-2, 1-8-0/2) is the clear #1…there’s no more debating that with Le’Veon. However, he is losing a few touches to Le’Veon Bell…and more importantly, he is nowhere to be found in the hurry up offense before the half/clock winding down or in the final drive hurry up at the end. The hurry up is Darrell Williams’ (3-22-0/3) time.
CEH is just a garden variety lead back seeing 13-16 touches, limited PPR work, and you hope he scores a TD because he’s likely not getting anywhere near 100+ yards rushing in a game. 10 games played, so far, and 8 games under 70 yards rushing for CEH.
Le’Veon Bell (7-25-1, 1-11-0/1) is washed up. Strictly a handcuff for CEH, and he would probably split with Darrell Williams 50/50 if CEH did go down. Bell looks like he has aged 10 years since arriving to KC…perhaps, I just didn’t notice it before.
Will KC go with CEH as their clear lead in the future, or is this 13-16 touch a game guy/hoping for a TD going to be a forever thing? The answer to that is huge for Dynasty consideration.
Were 1st-round rookie draft picks wasted on CEH and Jon Taylor? Perhaps.
It could be the new era of the devaluation of RB talent.
Talent doesn’t matter, situation/coach/depth chart means way more. James Robinson might be the #3 back for KC or LV, for example…but in Jacksonville he’s a god, somehow (there’s a reason JAX is 1-9).
-- Speaking of devaluation… The Raiders’ WRs.
It’s Nelson Agholor (6-88-1/9) as the only WR who matters. He leads the way with 3-5 targets usually, but more than that in big/tough games where they need to throw more. Agholor had 9 targets here and the other WRs all combined for 6 targets.
Is Bryan Edwards (1-1-0/2) dead because of this? Maybe. Maybe not.
Agholor is a free agent and I doubt LV will make a big investment if he commands dollars in free agency (and he probably will). The door will open to Edwards again next season. For what it is worth, watching him run routes in his limited playing time…I can see some magic waiting to happen. I just don’t think it will until 2021.
I’m not clutching Edwards with my dying breath…there’s WR inflation/WR opportunity everywhere for the future. But I am not giving up on the fact that he’s one of the best WR prospects from this class. He just hasn’t had his time yet.
-- 2020 season to date numbers for two KC WRs…
26 rec., 34 targets, 411 yards, 3 TDs = Mecole Hardman
27 rec., 38 targets, 264 yards, 2 TDs = Demarcus Robinson
Why do people still believe in Hardman? He might have a blip if Tyreek goes down, but that’s a big maybe. It didn’t happen last year, but for one blip.
Henry Ruggs (1-5-0/1) take a good look at your potential future.
-- Tyreek Hill uptick…
3.7 rec. (6.3 targets), 64.0 yards, 0.67 TDs per game = Weeks 1-6 (the #18 WR in PPR PPG)
7.5 rec. (12.0 targets), 92.0 yards, 1.5 TDs per game = Weeks 7-11 (the #2 WR in PPR PPG)
Some of you are wondering how your previously-thought-to-be dying fantasy team is suddenly winning a bunch of games and swinging back into the playoffs…this might be one reason. Sometimes, the timing of results happens the way we DON’T want it to.
Then we panic.
Then we want to give up on fantasy.
Then we trade off players for picks in Dynasty for some magical future fix.
Sometimes, you gotta stay the course. Many are finding out the virtue of FF-patience with the right players. You could hold down Tyreek for long.
-- LV SAF Jonathan Abram (10 tackles) is the…
Biggest hitter in the NFL.
The most dangerous hitter in the NFL…like he’s going to seriously hurt someone.
He’s the biggest jerk, on the field…he’s drawing penalties all over for stupid, unnecessary hits.
He has 10 tackles in a game in two of his last 3 games.
-- Harrison Butker (0/0 FG, 5/5 XP) has no FG attempts in two of his last 3 games.
The KC offense is so efficient that Butker is losing out on FG attempts. Plenty of XPs, no FGs. That might not be good going into the FF-playoffs if he is your kicker.
-- One important note that came up in the last Video Q&A…
I’m guessing your league is like most I see…all the QBs are being hoarded. They need to be – COVID (or other injury) could take your main guy and then you go to waivers and find Mike Glennon is all. You need two QBs in fantasy, as I’ve preached for years…but eased up on it to start this year, but went right back into it early on – because I saw the supply run on toilet paper/QBs in the pandemic.
Maybe you have Mahomes, and you passed on Herbert or whatever early on off waivers because you weren’t worried. Matt Stafford was going to be good enough.
Well, he hasn’t been.
As a Mahomes owner, who built the team around him…are comfortable with your Plan B ahead if he goes down?
Let me throw out this idea – you could just go with Matt Moore (hero fill-in last year), but that’s assuming he’s the ‘handcuff’. Moore is on the practice squad, currently, as probably a roster saving maneuver (so as not to carry 3 QBs). Chad Henne is the rostered backup, but Moore was the option they did last year. So, it’s an idea to grab Mahomes’s handcuff -- but then are we really sure it’s Moore or Henne, in a crisis…is the issue.
The answer to that, I really do not know. But I mentioned it Thursday and just wanted to kick it around a little more.
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Link to Amazon main page: https://www.amazon.com/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=tfawesbite11-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=44051c116edf4a75e87f1aae12955357&camp=1789&creative=9325
Snap Counts of Interest:
44 = Jacobs
15 = Booker
44 = Agholor
32 = Ruggs
20 = Renfrow
09 = Bryan Edwards
40 = CEH
20 = Le’Veon
20 = Darr Williams
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Browns 22, Eagles 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
If you ever wanted to watch a game where two equally matched (roughly) teams with must-win type motivations played a game – and you wanted to see what one team playing confident, smart, tough football could do to an equal talent team who played skittish, unenthused, bad football…watch this game. The Eagles scored a TD with 0:30 left to make this look closer than it was.
I was very impressed with the Browns here. I’ve been a Browns 2020 skeptic, but this game really caught my eye…granted, the Eagles are falling off a cliff…it may not be as reasonable of a litmus test as I think it is. The Browns played smart/tough football, in the rain. Baker Mayfield is a smart quarterback…he is (potentially) going to lead this team to the playoffs, for everyone who called him a bust – he might actually get the Cleveland Browns to the playoffs in our lifetimes/right now. He’s not carrying them with big passer tallies, he’s actually doing something people didn’t think he could or would – he’s managing the game (no picks in his last three games…but not TD passes either).
Nick Chubb is not carrying this team, Baker is…Chubb is getting one big run per game, and a lot of 0-2 yard runs otherwise, but due credit for a big run per game (a 54-yarder here). Chubb has also been out half the season. The defense was without Myles Garrett but played a great game with 11 QB hits and 5 sacks. This was an ‘all facets playing solid’ type victory.
Most credit due to Head Coach Kevin Stefanski. To come into the Cleveland organization and inherit this motley crew with a culture of losing…and now have them winning via sound football. You have to tip your hat to the coach. I’d also point out, the team is (3-1) since OBJ was lost for the season.
As impressively solid as the Browns were, the Eagles were the opposite – maybe one of the worst games of quarterback play, from a supposed ‘top guy’, we’ve seen in 2020. More on that in a moment. Wentz is killing the heart of this team…they are starting to look defeated behind Wentz, where the Browns have a quiet confidence/belief behind Baker.
If Kevin Stefanski gets credit for the Browns success/vibe, then Doug Pederson deserves the same for the Eagles fall from grace. Wentz is not a leader, and he’s losing confidence himself as we go – some of that, Pederson is to blame for mismanaging his psyche. I think we’re to the point that if the Eagles don’t win the NFC East…Pederson, and Wentz, might be out. Pederson fired; Wentz benched in 2021 by the new coach (the Eagles will have a hard time trading him with his contract…for which the GM should also be fired).
The Eagles fall to (3-6-1) with this loss, and as of this writing it puts them technically behind (now) a (4-7) Washington team. Philly is playing for its life vs. Seattle and I just don’t see any fire with the Eagles to think they’ll win that game. If they lose this week…they likely lose to at GB and NO after that to fall to (3-9-1). They’d have to win out to get to 6 wins…at ARI, at DAL, WASH. The Eagles have the upper hand to win the division due to the tie on their books, because 6 wins should win this division – but I really don’t know that the Eagles will get to 6 wins.
Cleveland rises to (7-3), they are ahead of the Baltimore Ravens in the division/playoff ranks, unbelievably. They play at JAX this week, which should mean they will be (8-3) after Week 12. It’s probably going to take 10 wins for an AFC wild card…if CLE beats at JAX, and then at NYG, at NYJ in a few weeks…there’s 10 wins, and they can lose all the rest of their games to go. Week 13 at TEN is a huge game for them and the playoffs. If the Browns win that game, they’d hold a tiebreaker over Indy AND Tennessee, and that may be the difference of in/out among them in the wild card. We project the Browns finish with 9 wins and are scrapping for that final wild card.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- What I think I saw with Carson Wentz (21-35 for 235 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs, 3-10-0) here…
Very nervous, very indecisive. He’s playing like a scared rookie. He’s playing like a guy under constant criticism and it’s getting to him. There’s guys open all over and Wentz is jumpy feet-ing around and tell-tale tapping the ball several times before throwing, or just pulling it down and running (when there are people open right in front of him). He threw a few passes that were unfathomable that a guy with his experience would throw. If he were a lesser named QB, he would’ve been benched by other coaches in-game…it was that bad.
Look at Travis Fulgham’s line here and remember just a few weeks ago these two were like the new great duo in the NFL…1 catch for 8 yards on 7 targets.
Alshon Jeffrey…Wentz tried to force it to him twice, once for the worst throw/INT of 2020 – in the game, 2 targets, no catches.
The only thing that looked somewhat comfortable was Went to Dallas Goedert (5-77-1/6)…and that was a late, short TD pass away from being ‘meh’ for Goedert.
There is a Carson Wentz problem here, but we’ve seen decent Wentz before…he can snap out of this potentially…but time is ticking, and it’s taking down all the surrounding weapons with it for FF.
-- Speaking of Dallas Goedert (5-77-1/6)…he looked really nice here. The movement skills are back. He’s looking like the ‘next Gronk’ again.
The problem for getting too excited about it for FF is…
1) Wentz is really scuffling right now.
2) Zach Ertz might be back Week 12, if not…then definitely Week 13…and that creates options and confusion for Goedert getting top targeting.
-- Nick Chubb (20-114-0) is doing a Damien Harris thing…looks great, rushing for 100+ all the time, but with no targets, if he doesn’t get a TD – then who cares for FF? Chubb got 11.4 points here. Kareem Hunt (13-11-1, 1-10-0/1) had terrible output but scored 8.1 points, 9.1 PPR because he was in for the TD.
Couple of notes on Chubb…
1) Chubb looks great running the ball, but defenses really push up on him. And why not? He played 30 snaps and ran the ball 20 times. Pretty good guess what CLE is doing when Chubb is in.
2) Which makes me think…
Chubb looks really quick, evasive and strong running the ball…and so does Damien Harris/NE. Harris is a star running below the radar…but with Belichick rotation worries. This Chubb note is really about how impressed I am with Harris (and Chubb looks terrific too).
3) Hunt played 36 snaps to Chubb’s 30, second game in a row Hunt played more snaps.
4) Chubb has not caught a pass since Week 3.
5) Chubb has not had more than 1 target in a game all year.
6) Chubb had a 54-yard run in this game, and that 59-yard one at the end of Week 11 where he went out of bounds on purpose vs. scoring a TD late. Takeaway those two runs and Chubb has rushed 37 times for 127 yards total, just 3.43 yards per carry on all his other work. Not great.
Chubb is great and an RB1 threat every week, but there is some risk in his numbers with his non-targeting. He truly has been an RB2 more than RB1 since Kareem Hunt started playing together with him last season.
Kareem Hunt is an RB1 threat with RB2 numbers working with Chubb as well. He’s not a backup/low snap count rotational – it’s a 50-50 split with these guys, in a sense…with Hunt in on the passing activity almost always.
-- Baker Mayfield (12-22 for 204 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) played the prettiest terrible FF game you’ll ever witness. In the rain, Baker looked so not-bothered by the cold/wet and is seeing the field so well and is moving in the pocket nicely – he’s playing with a controlled confidence versus a childish confidence. He’s really matured in a year.
Baker may be a very good NFL QB who is a perpetual QB2 in this offense, climate, etc. He doesn’t need to be unleashed to run his Oklahoma offense.
…but the good news is he could if needed by the Browns, which makes them a bit dangerous in the playoffs.
-- I still think Rashard Higgins (3-65-0/4) is Baker’s #1 look now, his favorite guy to throw to…not Jarvis Landry (2-23-0/2) – and it’s all being hidden because the Browns keep having bad weather games with low passing needs/output.
Since OBJ went down, from Week 7 on…
3.3 rec. (4.3 targets), 59.3 yards, 0.0 TDs per game = Higgins
3.3 rec. (5.8 targets), 38.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game = Landry
Do you know how many TD catches Jarvis Landry has this season?
Zero.
He has 1 TD catch with Baker in his last 15 games (back to 2019).
Higgins has 2 TDs this season.
-- Two IDP notes…
1) PHI rookie LB Davion Taylor (3 tackles) drew his first start but played just 21% of the snaps. The Eagles seem to be bringing him up to speed slowly and it’s getting to the point he might start soon. I’m on the fence on whether he’s IDP worthy or not. Really good player but might be better for the NFL than FF.
2) CLE DE Olivier Vernon (5 tackles, 3.0 sacks, 3.5 TFLs, 4 QB hits) has woken up…
0.0 sacks, 2 QB hits through Week 7 (5 games played).
5.0 sacks, 6 QB hits, 5.0 TFLs the past three games.
Snap Counts of Interest:
36 = Hunt
30 = Chubb
48 = Hodge
40 = Higgins
38 = Landry
65 = Fulgham
63 = Reagor
46 = Ward
05 = Jeffrey
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Jaguars 27, Steelers 3
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The score of this game speaks for itself. The Jaguars are terrible from top-to-bottom and have a growing injured reserve list. The Steelers are undefeated. The only thing weird about the 27-3 score was…why wasn’t more like 40+ to 3? The Steelers played like they knew they were going to win. They had their foot halfway down on the pedal and coasted to a victory.
The Steelers are now (10-0) and are possibly getting a break to go undefeated this whole season – considering all the COVID issues for this week’s game vs. Baltimore, which was one of two real tests for the Steelers remaining. That game is either going to get cancelled or they will face the Ravens without Lamar Jackson, among others, playing. Assuming they play this week, we project the Steelers to finish (14-2), with (15-1) obtainable…and possibly get the #1 seed in the AFC.
The Jaguars are now (1-9) and are the worst team in the NFL…batting for that spot with the Burrow-less Bengals. Jacksonville is trying to lose, I am convinced of that (more on why in a moment)…and they will go (1-15) and have a shot at the #1 pick/Trevor Lawrence. The Jets hold all the cards to get the #1 pick, but I think the Jets will win a game…but the Jets have the tiebreaker edge it appears (strength of schedule). The Jets need to win two games and the Jags need to lose out to be sure for Jacksonville to get the #1 pick.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- You know the Jags are tanking because they announced Mike Glennon would start over Jake Luton (16-37 for 151 yards, 0 TDs/4 INTs) Week 12.
What was Luton’s crime? Almost winning his last two games prior to this but struggling against, arguably, the top ranked defense in the NFL? If you were running the Jaguars, and the NFL Draft order didn’t matter in decisions, you would start Luton the rest of the season (assuming Minshew out) to see what you had. You would have absolutely no interest in Glennon playing. Luton, for his part, has shown he has some skills. It’s not like he has been terrible in his three starts…just this one, but there was a good reason (the Steelers). So, starting Luton this week makes sense…right?
Nope. The Jags were looking for a reason to make a change, to get worse, and Luton/the Steelers defense gave them one.
What happens to the Jags under Glennon?
Everything declines. It’s an offense that goes from bad to worse. Glennon has cement shoes for escapability in the pocket, and the Jaguars cannot protect well as it is. Glennon is a QB that would’ve been desired 10-15 years ago. Tall. Decent skills. Runs the playbook. He would have been a mediocre QB in 2010, but he’s downright awful in the new era of quick passing and moving around. He’s a dinosaur.
The change to Glennon doesn’t help James Robinson (17-73-0, 2-21-0/2) because defenses can focus on him at will.
It doesn’t D.J. Chark (4-41-0/8) much because Glennon won’t have time or the arm/quick release to get it to him well. However, if Glennon has time…he’s not a bad downfield passer. He’s so likely top be under duress that you can only hope Glennon blindly lofts one-on-one bombs to Chark, and DJC can make something out of one or two of them.
Everything was already bad with the Jags…now it’s worse/random.
-- The Steelers’ WR report…
Diontae Johnson (12-111-0/16) is now CLEARLY the volume target for Ben. He’s like his poor man’s Davante Adams connection (without the mass TDs). Diontae is the #5 PPR PPG WR since Week 9.
If you look at only the games that Diontae has played 50%+ of the game in (7 games) this season, he has averaged: 6.9 rec., 77.0 yards, 0.57 TDs per game…18.02 PPR PPG – that pace would make him the #9 PPR WR for the season. The Jimmy Smith/Baltimore shutdown event away from being top 5 for the season.
Diontae is Ben’s volume guy, but Chase Claypool (4-59-1/8) is his money man. Ben is taking several deep shots per game to CC, on top of normal type targeting.
Since Week 5, Claypool is the #7 PPR PPG WR in fantasy, and the #4 in non-PPR…a hair behind D.K. Metcalf.
I hate the matchup with the Ravens for both WRs if Jimmy Smith is active, but as the Ravens lose players with COVID and if Smith is just out on his injury…it could be some bomb’s away on Baltimore with Diontae and Claypool.
-- James Conner (13-89-0, 3-10-0/3) isn’t great, but I can tell you this…
Bennie Snell (7-15-1) looks terrible.
Anthony McFarland (3-3-0) can’t get past the line of scrimmage without going down.
I am looking for the heir to free agent Conner…but I don’t see one here, yet.
-- Rookie CB Chris Claybrooks (10 tackles) has been forced into action with all the DB injury decimation for the Jags. He’s not ready for this, and he’s going to get picked on…but that means he should get decent tackle totals for being around the ball/WRs catching it on him constantly.
*Shopping Online with Amazon this Holiday Season? Who isn’t?
Did you know if you click through the Amazon link from the FFM homepage (our partners/shop with us area) it doesn’t change your online shopping experience or cost you any money but somehow the big brother technology credits FFM with helping with the sale and we gets some of Jeff Bezos’s scraps from his solid gold dinner table to help support the FFM efforts and fund our own future technology improvements? It’s one click away, nothing else needed or to register. Thank you for your consideration!
Link to Amazon main page: https://www.amazon.com/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=tfawesbite11-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=44051c116edf4a75e87f1aae12955357&camp=1789&creative=9325
Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = J Robinson
13 = Ogunbowale
04 = Ozigbo
52 = Conner
10 = Snell
05 = McFarland
