2022 Week 1 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick
As we do every season, every week, on Thursday’s before noonET, we publish the FFM computer model picks ATS and straight up for each game. Picks made/computer model run with the information we have at the time on player injuries, etc. So, this is what we think we know by Thursday midday…and any number of things could change for real, but most ‘pool’ tournament plays require your picks in by Thursday midday/pre-THU kickoff. We’ll discuss more, late-breaking betting items on FFM and on the Sunday morning live show.
This season, as usual, I will go through each game giving what our models say and then my (RC) general vibe on the game -- but this year I am adding the early ATS picks from FFM’s Ross Jacobs and Bet The Close NFL Handicapping Podcast Chris Bilello…all their picks will be listed for each game, and we’ll track the success of each handicapper’s picks as the season rolls on.
*NOTE = Ross, Chris, Myself/FFM do not know each other’s picks beforehand…so, this is a reveal to them and all of us seeing where there is consensus, or not, going in…and we’ll track the various consensuses as to whether it matters/is ‘a tell’ as we go this season.
So, here are Week 1’s early pick ATS and straight in order of our FFM Best Bet (per the computer model) on down.
Note about Week 1:
Last season, Week 1…if you took every underdog blind, you would’ve gone 13-3 ATS. The less real information on the teams, the more analysts and fans ‘go with their feelings’ the more we need to go opposite all their feelings.
The only three losses ATS last season, where the dogs didn’t stay within the spread was when AWFUL offenses/QBs played (CHI, NYJ, NYG).
We want to put weight on/lean dogs in most scenarios, let’s see if it mattered to the computer or to the individual handicappers.
LV at LAC (3.5)
The Computer says: LAC by 7.8 (a 4.3 spread differential)
In what area on the field, any position group, are the Raiders more talented/better setup than the Chargers? Kicker and tight end…that’s about it. I’d rather side with the team that has the QB, O-Line, DB, and pass rush edge. An easy call here.
If J.C. Jackson can go in this game -- all-in on LAC.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: LAC
Ross Jacobs: LAC
IND (-8.0) at HOU
The FFM Computer says: IND by 4.9 (a 3.1 spread differential)
I like a home dog Week 1, and I like Houston to be better than 2021…and I don’t like Indy, especially if Darius Leonard is out. I will happily take the points here.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: HOU *BEST BET*
Ross Jacobs: HOU
GB (-1.5) at MIN *Underdog Outright Upset*
The FFM Computer says: MIN by 1.5 (a 3.0 spread differential)
I don’t want any part of betting on this game, but it may be the one I most want to watch as a fan -- two of the best teams in football, perhaps the 1-2 best teams in the NFC…if MIN pulls off a win here.
‘At’ Minnesota is the single worst place for a road team to go play. If Allen Lazard is out this game -- GB is in real trouble.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: MIN
Ross Jacobs: GB
BUF (-2.5) at LAR *TNF
The FFM Computer says: LAR by 0.4 (a 2.9 spread differential)
The Bills have the better team and they have played light’s out in the preseason -- but the Bills are a different team/defense without Tre’Davious White. I would not lay 2.5 on the road with the Bills’ shaky CB duo (one a rookie debuting) against Stafford-Kupp-ARob.
Sean McVay is 5-0 ATS as the Rams head coach in Week 1 games. Sean McDermott is 3-2 ATS with Buffalo.
Really, in the end, I’m staying away from this game…but the 52+ ‘over’ total points might have some interest.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: LAR
Ross Jacobs: LAR
BAL (-7.0) at NYJ
The FFM Computer says: BAL by 9.8 (a 2.8 spread differential)
You go with John Harbaugh early in the season…especially the preseason and Week 1. His Ravens haven’t lost a preseason game in years. And in Week 1s in his career, Harbaugh is 10-4. The Jets are a mess whether they go with Flacco or not-100% Wilson.
*FFM Survivor pick*: The Ravens are too good to start seasons, and the Jets are in somewhat disarray.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: BAL *SURVIVOR PICK*
Ross Jacobs: NYJ
KC (-4.0) at ARI
The FFM Computer says: KC by 6.7 (a 2.7 spread differential)
Kliff Kingsbury is 3-0 ATS in Week 1s, so far in his career. But I like Andy Reid anytime he has extra time to prepare…he’s 14-9 in Week 1s in his career. And KC has solid talent all over the field, not just the obvious advantage at QB.
I think Kingsbury is losing this team now and their personnel moves have been lacking, and then some bad luck on top of that forcing them to lose two CBs this preseason…one of them a starter lost last week to a kitchen mishap (Hamilton).
Mahomes is (9-0) on turf in his career, one of the wins in the playoffs. He gets his 10th win in a row here.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: KC
Ross Jacobs: ARI
PHI (-4.0) at DET
The FFM Computer says: PHI by 2.2 (a 1.8 spread differential)
I fear the Eagles, the better roster/talent right now, could walk into a buzzsaw Week 1 at Detroit. In the preseason, the Lions fans were losing their minds for basic preseason plays -- this stadium will be insane, the Lions will be sky high…the momentum could carry them Week 1.
This Lions offense is way better than the analysts are projecting…but their defense is still wobbly.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: DET
Ross Jacobs: PHI
SF (-7.0) at CHI
The FFM Computer says: SF by 8.4 (a 1.4 spread differential)
Matt Eberflus’s Week 1 defenses have been getting smoked, looking back at his four-year Indy D-C stint…and he’s remaking this Bears defense and has several new players debuting. The 49ers are a more cohesive and just a better team going in -- especially comparing offenses. I can’t take a Justin Fields-led team in a game…I can’t.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: SF
Ross Jacobs: SF
CLE at CAR (-2.5)
The FFM Computer says: CAR by 3.8 (a 1.3 spread differential)
It’s not so much the ‘Baker revenge’ as it is ‘versus Brissett’. I don’t like the Browns’ whole vibe this preseason, the Watson thing continues to hover over them. They know this season is lost before it has started. Carolina should take advantage of that + Brissett to cover.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: CAR
Ross Jacobs: CAR
DEN (-6.0) at SEA *MNF
The FFM Computer says: DEN by 6.9 (a 0.9 spread differential)
My instinct is to take the point with a home dog in an MNF game…but there’s too much going against Seattle, who may be the single worst team in the NFL Week 1.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: SEA
Ross Jacobs: DEN *SURVIVOR* and *BEST BET*
NE at MIA (-3.0)
The FFM Computer says: MIA by 2.1 (a 0.9 spread differential)
I’m getting wary of a Bill Belichick rope-a-dope…the preseason news about the Pats has been so horrible, that it’s probably time to take them and the points.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NE
Ross Jacobs: MIA
PIT at CIN (-6.5)
The FFM Computer says: CIN by 6.0 (a 0.5 spread differential)
The Bengals are just better on both sides of the ball and on special teams, and especially at QB. If you have doubts about Cincy’s new O-Line…whatever you think of them, Pitt’s O-Line is worse. Take the better team at home but it’s a big line for Week 1, so Cincy for the win but Pitt for the cover.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: PIT
Ross Jacobs: PIT
NO (-5.5) at ATL
The FFM Computer says: NO by 5.0 (a 0.5 spread differential)
The Saints are the better team here, going in…especially on defense. However, it’s a hot amount of points to lay in a home opener and with Jameis having the ability to keep the opponents in games via pick sixes. I think Atlanta tries to slow this down and hopes to allow Winston to make mistakes and can keep it close.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: ATL
Ross Jacobs: ATL
NYG at TEN (-5.5)
The FFM Computer says: TEN by 5.2 (a 0.3 spread differential)
I hate where the Giants are heading with personnel and everything this season, and I think the Titans are an undervalued team by the public…which is causing this line to be suppressed some. I’ll take the favorite to actually cover here in Week 1.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NYG
Ross Jacobs: TEN
JAX at WSH (-3.0)
The FFM Computer says: WSH by 2.8 (a 0.2 spread differential)
I have no feelings about this game…nothing would surprise me for an outcome. In the end, as a pick, I’ll just take the points and move on.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: JAX
Ross Jacobs: JAX
TB (-1.5) at DAL *SNF
The FFM Computer says: TB by 1.5 (a 0.0 spread differential)
I want nothing to do with this game, two teams with battered O-Lines and Brady with off-field stuff…so, as a pick we’ll go with the home dog + points.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: TB
Ross Jacobs: DAL
