RC's Daily Notes 2026: For the Week of 1/19-1/25 ('The Week That Was'...)

: R.C. Fischer; FreeView; 25 January 2026

RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...

Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items to start the days with.

1/25 SUN

(8:08amET)

-- Today’s Agenda…

NFL Final Four day! FFM Discord channel for game chat will open.

Senior Bowl Preview Reports

FFM News & Notes during the day as I get them.

Anything else that pops up, and any betting opportunities I might see.

My Jacksonville daily diary at the very end for me recording this journey for future reading/memory and sharing how things are going with everyone.

== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==

-- HEADLINE: ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports former Steelers OC Arthur Smith is expected to accept the same position at Ohio State.

I mean...

Just when it looked like Michigan football was about collapse terminally from within and fall forever behind Ohio State, the Buckeye’s do a ‘hold my beer...’ thing.

I was wondering when the run of good and great Ohio State WR prospects would ever end. We may have just found the ‘jump the shark’ moment. Nothing 16-22-year-old kids will like more than the playfulness and personality and charm and pass game innovation of Arthur Smith.

Good job, Buckeyes! You could literally hire anyone to be your O-C...and this was your choice! Hey, their old guy O-C (Chip Kelly) worked 2 years ago! OK...great logic.

-- The Raiders miss out again...

https://x.com/schultz_report/status/2014478208440127600?s=43

Missed on Ben Johnson...missed on Liam Coen...missed on Jesse Minter.

Why does no one want to pair with Tom Brady? He can’t close a deal on anything.

The Las Vegas Raiders are fast becoming the Cleveland Browns West.

-- HEADLINE: Chargers completed an interview with former Titans DC Dennard Wilson for their defensive coordinator vacancy.

This would be one of my favorites for the LAC D-C job. He got a raw deal in Tennessee because that franchise is Cleveland Browns South. I don’t know if he’s the single best candidate for LAC, but if Harbaugh picks him...I think I’ll know why. He showed some promise but got screwed by his situation and mass injuries...and L’Jarius Snead.

-- HEADLINE: NFL Insider Jordan Schultz reports former Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel canceled his interview with the Bills to discuss the team’s head coaching position on Friday.

https://x.com/bufforiginstory/status/2014857085339500693?s=43

Nothing will get in the way of my Brian Daboll bet! He’s back up to 0.42 on the prediction markets.

I did add a small amount of Davis Webb at .10 because it was/is a cheap hedge.

-- Oh snap, Grant’s on the rampage: https://x.com/grantcohn/status/2014896887061742032?s=43

https://x.com/grantcohn/status/2014850579525496864?s=43

-- I can’t tell if this is an example of how bad scouts are, or how good they are...

https://x.com/nfl_dovkleiman/status/2014848370364572069?s=43

Two of the top 10 here are playing in the 2025 season Final Four games today!

I’m thinking it is another example of ‘scouts aren’t really good at their jobs’ and also...QB scouting is very difficult on high schoolers when you base it on ‘look’ and ‘tape’ because you don’t know how their brains and maturity will develop (or not). Two of these 10 are notorious video game players...

-- Early leader for TWEET/X of the Year: https://x.com/super70ssports/status/2014757707891306519?s=43

But then there was a late entry to challenge that last night: https://x.com/Underdog/status/2015213482006954183

Random tweet tidbits I found interesting, concerning the games today...

LAR-SEA Xs...

-- Stafford: https://x.com/yahoofantasy/status/2014502014991139232?s=43

-- Puka: https://x.com/stuckey2/status/2014809285490786393?s=43

NE-DEN Xs...

-- Boutte: https://x.com/allbrightnfl/status/2014815326169649386?s=43

-- Will Campbell has been getting crushed by critics lately...

https://x.com/rosstuckerpod/status/2014684544868483401?s=43

...Campbell was a PFF top 20 graded OL for 2025??

-- Dynasty Owners...

Make sure you’ve read this message: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/6341-2026-conference-playoff-week-daily-news-and-comments-stream-mon-charbonnet-dynasty-kcs-new-o-c-nightmare

AND I’m gonna keep it on here at the end of this daily report every day to have it as a reminder to get through the next 2-3 weeks.

I know you want to storm the castle and make 152 trades right now.

BE PATIENT!!!!! Too many unknowns in the NFL right now to act in a lot of cases, on the big things/thoughts.

-- A loaded and bloated free agency class leads to my new daily segment...

(*same intro every day) A new daily segment that will take us up to near the beginning of free agency. I’ll go team-by-team, alphabetically, and list the key players who have contracts that are begging or almost assuredly are gonna get them cut. I’m going to list more of the FF ones of interest, but I will list any interesting IDPs or OLs.

We’re looking at players who...

*Still have some life/name appeal but are late/last year into their contracts and they will either make an excessive amount of money in 2026 or would only cost a minor hit to just outright cut them.

*I will also include guys who are not logical, contractually to cut, but they are hated and expensive and getting cut.

*Some of these guys might work out a new/reasonable deal before getting released, but I want to show the explosion of guys that might hit the market...and there is already a surge of talent in natural free agency, especially at RB...which is gonna turn FF upside down when all these guys have nowhere to go and sign cheap in places that will FF-piss us off.

We’ll list by position, and I’ll put in order of most likely in-demand after getting cut. We’ll build the list daily. You and I might be shocked by the time we complete this exercise...

(intro end)

---------------------------------

Today’s look: Atlanta

(other notes)

-- Not a lot of CAP to chop away for the Falcons.

-- Kirk Cousins is the only real issue...it seemed like he’s all but gone, but now maybe not??? He’s theoretical friend with Kevin Stefanski, and ATL needs a QB in case the Penix 2-time ACL’d glass knee shatters while rehabbing the new ACL’d one.

And ATL needs to pay Drake London (current 1-yr deal/5th-yr option) now...and they likely let free agent Kyle Pitts go in their money crunch? They may do a London deal, then put a tag on Pitts for a year.

QB:

Kyler Murray ($47M post-June 1st hit, and $7M hit in 2027)

Kirk Cousins? ($24.6M pay or cut for $25M hit post-June 1st)

RB:

James Conner ($10.3M keep, $2.3M cut post-June 1st)

WR:

TE:

Kyle Pitts (free agent)

Other:

========================

-- RC Daily JAX Diary...

(same intro every day)

At the very end of RC’s NOTES, for the next 50-60 days...I will share my little diary of my time in Jacksonville (for those who don’t know) getting radiation treatment for my battle with prostate cancer that I am winning -- I am figuratively off to a big 1st-quarter lead and looking strong into the 2nd-quarter of this football game analogy/cancer battle...but just like the Packers-Bears playoff game...it’s not over ‘til it’s over/we got a ways to go.

I am keeping these daily notes so that I might look back over time at this odd, unplanned event in my life. 40 straight weekdays of radiation scheduled, weekends off, unknown side effects ahead...some short-term, with a somewhat scary risk of long-term effects. It’s gonna be a wild ride.

I’m trying to treat this like a vacation, of sorts. Some people save up for a special trip to Hawaii or a European excursion...I could care less about those things. I saved for a rainy day for my protection...and, well... https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxLdSXQWUapDe0CcQznO8Kuqzht631AnEz?si=MqnycTkzVD5mzPnF

(end of intro)

1/24/26, Day 1

First full day of living in Jacksonville. Me and my soon-to-be 10-year-old dog holed up in the Sunshine State.

I am trying to treat this like a vacation of sorts, but it feels more like I’m getting my shot at going off to college, moving away from home for the first time (I commuted 30-minutes, to college, worked a full-time job, and lived at home for my college experience...don’t worry, I had time for a life...by skipping a ton of classes...I had priorities...). I’m in a small dorm room/1BR hotel room (like 500sq ft)...and I’m working and eating and sleeping and working and eating and sleeping and working...and walking the dog.

I picked a place to stay where everything in the world I could just about want, from food to grocery is less than a-half-a-mile away. I can walk to most things. I really feel like I’m on a college campus...but partially it’s cool independent living in a new place to discover, and partially it’s a prison sentence of sorts...because this isn’t my home. Depending upon what time of day...it feels like cool new experience or a weird home confinement, suspension of time.

I’m here to do a job...the next phase of my battle, a road game...a business trip. I don’t know if this will feel like more like a home or more like a prison over the next 50+ days.

At least I ditched out of the looming ice storm back home...and am ‘roughing’ it in 60–70-degree temps in one of the only East of the Mississippi locations safe from the storm. I pray my family and neighbors keep their power on. I feel guilty/not guilty but blessed to have the timing of being in the January warmth of Florida right now versus ‘in the storm’.

My family chipped in food money and got me gift cards for my trip during the Christmas holiday, so I am going to live my dream for the next two months -- never cooking a meal again/always eating out. Can I stay within a $1,000 budget for 50+ days, approx. $20 a day? Maybe. I’ll have to be clever.

My current plan is: I’m going to eat the free breakfast in the early mornings (even though hotel breakfasts are my sworn enemy...but the enemy of my enemy/budget...is my friend?). Then off to radiation mid-mornings weekdays. I will mostly skip lunch or heat up leftovers and then go out to eat somewhere for dinner (spend)...most of which the options are 5+ minute walk away. Chipotle (that I can see from my hotel room window), I‘m looking at you to help me through this! Also, the hotel has a happy hour of food and snacks 5-7pm Mon-Thu...I’ll be looking to abscond some items like a squirrel to build up a supply for back at the room, if they have anything good.

Today, a bad start to the budget...I tried/tested a local ‘NY Style’ Pizza place for lunch, just a single slice like my old days mostly growing up in NY. The place had shaky reviews, but I thought it would be fine/I am exploring my new world...but the bad reviewers were right...it was ‘shite’. Starbucks morning coffee in walking distance will likely pressure my budget, but it also helps me fight the hardcore stamina and tiredness, so it’s medicinal really...I should write it off on my taxes as ‘health care expense’...so, my day-1 was a $6 cold coffee, a $3 pizza shite slice, and then a $17 MOD Pizza + drink sit down solo and eat there to try to erase the memory of the bad NY style pizza earlier. Day 1 = $26 spend.

I gotta win that Brian Daboll bet to help me if I go over budget.

And if you think I am going to lower myself to drinking hotel coffee to save $$$...come on over and visit me here and I’ll make you a nice big cup of their prison grade coffee water, and I will then chuck the contents in your direction. I actually got a lot of Starbucks Gift Cards for Christmas, for this event...so they will be used.

On to Day 2.

1/24 SAT

(6:53amET)

-- Today’s Agenda…

Senior Bowl Preview Reports

FFM News & Notes during the day as I get them.

Anything else that pops up, and any early betting opportunities I might see.

== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==

-- A follow up to my initial ‘review’ of the Dolphins new GM and HC intro press conference yesterday…

If you think I’m being too critical of the people in these things, just check this out...I had to go back to the actual presser to make sure it wasn’t an A.I. generated joke:

ttps://x.com/nflmemes/status/2014711954539991255?s=43

-- A hat trick of related topics...

Brian Flores is awful, the Vikings are falling apart internally, and another reason why no one of any note/self-respect wants the Browns HC job...

https://x.com/nflfrascella/status/2014760138465280370?s=43

This Mike Pettine thing is way more important than the football ‘normies’ would think. The former Cleveland Browns head coach and longtime NFL assistant who recently retired from the Vikings staff appeared on the "Ultimate Cleveland Sports Show" this week. When asked for his thoughts on Flores as a head-coaching candidate, he did not hold back.

What Mike Pettine said (some GEMINI research wording)...

Pettine’s comments were notably cold and confirmed a significant rift within the Minnesota coaching staff. When asked for his thoughts on Flores, Pettine replied, "Probably not many that I would prefer to share... I’ll take the high road on that one."

Pettine revealed that the tension was so great that he actually switched sides of the ball to get away from Flores. "I mean, we didn’t see eye to eye on a lot of things, and that’s why I spent this past year on offense. I was there in '23 and '24 on defense."

GEMINI Conclusion: These comments have added significant fuel to the narrative that Flores—while a brilliant defensive mind—is "prickly" or difficult to work with. National insiders like Mike Florio have echoed that Flores has faced "interpersonal" hurdles in this 2026 hiring cycle.

*In the current 2026 vernacular, "normies" is a slang term used to describe people who are perceived as conventional, mainstream, or "boring." It is a shorthand for "normal people," but it almost always carries a specific social or cultural weight depending on who is saying it. RC NOTE: I just learned/took time to find out what this was supposed to mean on this ‘term’...and I love it.

Mike Pettine is a well-respected football man in the NFL...and he was a good head coach who got totally screwed in Cleveland (2-years as HC). The experience was so bad he kinda vowed never to waste time being a head coach again for his own sanity and to keep a focus on having a normal family life.

Pettine hired Kyle Shanahan to be his O-C way back in the day, for the Browns...just one of his visionary coaching moves.

The Browns situation (for Pettine) ended up, in part, by Kyle Shanahan resigning after 1-year and providing a 30+ page power point to secure his release. Then GM Ray Farmer called down to the sideline during a November game demanding Kyle put Johnny Manziel in the game. Farmer was suspended and Kyle left after one season.

https://x.com/hovah76/status/2014743666451984445?s=43

This will help... https://x.com/sleepernfl/status/2014817820580970898?s=43

https://x.com/jasrifootball/status/2014438146717499615?s=43

The current state of the Browns: https://x.com/CLEsportsTalk/status/2014757617134981321

I will soon get into WHAT IS GOING ON with the Minnesota Vikings...from ‘team of the future’ to every coach leaving, trying to leave, or getting fired it seems this offseason...and JJ McCarthy may be headed into a ‘bust’ in an era where every QB is instantly good, or has done a 180 into good...but not JJM.

-- HEADLINE: Jets fired senior assistant and pass game coordinator Scott Turner.

The Jets also fired QB coach Charles London, DL coach Eric Washington, LB coach Aaron Curry, defensive assistant Roosevelt Williams and defensive assistant Alonso Escalante.

Speaking of complete and total/utter disaster franchises...

Why isn’t Aaron Glenn held to account for hiring all these coaches that are apparently bad/needed to be fired after a year? This is such an obvious trainwreck happening...everyone can see it except Woody Johnson.

If you wanna know who/what the poorly run franchises are, look at the teams who got rid of mass assistants or the assistants just left for other/similar jobs elsewhere...or have head coaching jobs no real candidate wants.

And they are, in 2026...

NYJ

CLE

ARI

Now MIN?...KOC might not be the genius everyone thought...2026 will be a big year for him. They have ditched a ton of coaches, and Pettine ‘retiring’ apparently was the ‘canary in the coal mine’ of trouble brewing.

Possibly LV and TB belong with the ‘losers’. Let’s see what LV hires/comes up with after the abject disaster of Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly.

PIT may make this list...their coaching search is not going that well.

-- As I was saying the other day...

https://x.com/espn/status/2014451098195509527

Josh Allen is making this hire.

How does he not hire his beloved Brian Daboll?

Who could come close as a candidate for Allen? My predictions:

Allen will not team up with a ‘kid’ like Udinski or Kubiak. Why would he? Why learn a new offense from a snot nose kid if you’re Josh Freaking Allen? Anyone who is 10-20 years established in an industry...and you had major input on your next boss...you would not go with the young whippersnapper you did not know. If you decided to go ‘young’, you would ONLY go with a young one you did know and respect...so that’s where Davis Webb has a shot.

Again, Josh Allen is making this hire...it’s gonna be someone connected to him. We would all do the same thing in Allen’s shoes.

If Allen wanted continuity, everything built around him/for him and wanted to work with his favorite coach of all time and his personal mentor still...he’s gonna hire Brian Daboll. It only makes sense for Allen...and Allen will genuinely think it’s the right call for Buffalo...and it may be. Can’t be worse than McDermott, etc.

Buffalo has to go through the ruse of interviewing other guys...I think. It will be called ‘due diligence’. It will make the owner and GM feel good like they are ‘doing their job’ and the fans will buy into the con.

Josh Allen is hiring this coach...and he should. There is 0.0% chance the owner or GM would deny his desired guy. Actually 0.0% chance is too high...there’s a -14743% chance the deny Allen’s wishes.

It helps if former, respected voices rally to the cause/propaganda to help support the franchise/Allen in his decision.

Whaddya know?: https://x.com/hofstevetasker/status/2014721813838737498?s=43

-- HEADLINE: Bills completed an interview with former Colts QB Philip Rivers for their head-coaching vacancy.

And NO it’s not gonna be Philip Rivers. I think they are showing/offering Allen wildly different options just to make sure he feels OK with his choice. So, now you get ‘radical’/trend setting call of Philip Rivers. BUT, also...word is NYG is really looking at Rivers to be an O-C/Assistant. https://x.com/nflmemes/status/2014744155725934615?s=43

Allen will respect Rivers, but he doesn’t know the man enough to make him HC. But Allen very much knows Daboll. Rivers is being shown to Allen as an option going a different/fresh direction. And Udinski is the young guy option presented for Allen to consider...like a waiter bringing over the dessert tray. You already know your favorite dessert/what you’d like, but it doesn’t hurt to gawk at all the options and see if anything changes your mind.

If Allen goes ‘young guy’...it will be Davis Webb not Udinski.

https://x.com/billsfandiehard/status/2014753972364472792?s=43

I added $20 more Prediction Market shares of Daboll as the next Bills head coach at .355. My avg cost basis is now around .40. It’s becoming close to my single biggest bet on an item in this ‘past’ season...in the past 12 months.

How ‘unlucky’ the Bills coaching search: https://x.com/albertbreer/status/2014713771504144775?s=43

...it works because they ain’t interviewing more serious candidates, they know who they/Allen is hiring (my opinion).

-- Stay safe out there for those in the path of the storm. I pray it’s not as bad as they are predicting: https://x.com/barstoolsports/status/2014877036012052881?s=43

-- A loaded and bloated free agency class leads to my new daily segment...

A new daily segment that will take us up to near the beginning of free agency. I’ll go team-by-team, alphabetically, and list the key players who have contracts that are begging or almost assuredly are gonna get them cut. I’m going to list more of the FF ones of interest, but I will list any interesting IDPs or OLs.

We’re looking at players who...

*Still have some life/name appeal but are late/last year into their contracts and they will either make an excessive amount of money in 2026 or would only cost a minor hit to just outright cut them.

*I will also include guys who are not logical, contractually to cut, but they are hated and expensive and getting cut.

We’ll list by position, and I’ll put in order of most likely in-demand after getting cut. We’ll build the list daily. You and I might be shocked by the time we complete this exercise...

---------------------------------

Today’s look: Arizona

(other notes)

-- The Cardinals have a lot of CAP space they can clear overall with several players. It’s a total rebuild situation in Arizona...in the most powerful division in all of football.

-- They will keep Jacoby Brissett (1-yr left at $5.4M)

QB:

Kyler Murray ($47M post-June 1st hit, and $7M hit in 2027)

RB:

James Conner ($10.3M keep, $2.3M cut post-June 1st)

WR:

TE:

Other:

-----------------------------

1/23 FRI

(6:02amET)

-- Today’s Agenda…

New Game Reports today

Conference Playoff Week projections update between 6-9pmET

FFM News & Notes during the day as I get them.

Senior Bowl Preview Reports

Anything else that pops up, and any early betting I might see.

== HELLO, JACKSONVILLE ==

Heading Jacksonville today for a two month stay and 39 radiation treatments. Leaving a day earlier than planned to beat the ice storm weekend...and go crunch a bunch of draft prospect tape.

Radiation begins Monday 1/26.

Prayers are always welcomed and appreciated.

All day travel 1st-half of the day…me and my dog. Wife and son, who were going to move me down on the weekend, are now staying behind to battle the storm and watch over/help the rest of the family and neighbors deal with the weather. I hate to bail on the crisis (kinda)l, but I can’t miss or reschedule what begins on Monday. Pray for them as much as for me! I pray that all of you in a possibly affected area get off lite...and keep your lights on.

== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==

-- I watched the introductory press conference for the new Miami Wondertwins duo of GM Jon-Eric Sullivan and new head coach Jeff Hafley.

It was one of the most boring, dull, vanilla press conferences I’ve ever seen...and not in a good way, but not necessarily bad...maybe?

Approx. a 55-minute presser. The very dull, uninspiring owner blandly spoke for like 7 minutes to then introduce his new hires. Then the new GM read aloud every football cliché there was on rebuilding a team...reading them off his notes...not inspiring at all...for about 11 minutes. Then the new head coach Jeff Hafley spoke for approx. 8 minutes, gave his background info/resume. I can’t tell you one thing that stood out about these people after 26 minutes besides Hafley kinda breaking down/crying at one point...which I was thankful for because at least it was confirmed he may be human...and not the Tin Man from the Wizard of Oz, pre-viscosity.

Then the new GM and new Head Coach sat at a typical table and took 30 minutes of softball questions as the new management duo never/rarely changed facial expression nor body language like they both had some kind of plastic surgery and Botox regiment the past year/s. If you turned the sound off and just watched these 30 minutes, you wouldn’t know it was a happy day. It looked like, visually and muted, two guys being questioned by congress and unhappy/unnerved about being there hoping not to do or say anything bad to their questioners on why their departments spent 14% more of their budget than planned.

The GM spoke for about 20 of those 30 Q&A minutes. The new head coach didn’t speak much (guessing 10 of the 30 minutes, at best...it felt like) but all I could think watching it was how much Jeff Halfey looked like a just tranquilizer dart sedated version of Jim Carrey in Me, Myself, and Irene...as he uncomfortably stared ahead much of the time. Here’s a quick clip from Hafley at the presser: https://youtu.be/YZtiDJqVYwk?si=3Onw18ffaYpqxn_j&t=8

After the unnecessary background reports from each guy, the 30-minute Q&A, where we hope to find something interesting or inspiring about these guys, was instead 30 minutes of them explaining the very basics of football as if they just got it from the mountain from God and were now delivering this fresh info to all of us who were to be dazzled by their inspired insight.

And before you lose faith in them...rest assured, they are gonna focus on fundamentals. They hit that beat somewhere in their speech.

All I can say is...this was very, very odd.

Not damning...they don’t have to major in ‘press conferences’...but you would like to see confidence and conviction, and maybe something inspiring. If I was at a presser like that, I would be even worse...I hate those things, but if I knew my career goal would ultimately put my on the microphone in those situations, I’d be attending classes and forcing myself to do pressers every day for years so I could to prepare for ‘my moment’.

Troy Aikman was part of the ‘advisory board’ for these hirings...and he’s the most vanilla NFL game analyst there is, and Dolphins owner puts you to sleep as well...so, ‘shocker’ that those two helped hire two cup-of-room-temperature-tap-water employees to run the team.

I got a not-so-good feeling about this. BUT I’ll know more about them when I see their O-C hire and their free agency performance and draft, etc. First impression...uninspiring, to say the least. I feel bad for these two guys got sentenced to 2-5 years of football management...is what it came off as.

-- Ok, some fun ones...

FACTS: https://x.com/tonypayments/status/2014139326041313743?s=43

FACTS #2: https://x.com/themarvspace/status/2014129620233400578?s=43

The public is starting to awaken to MHJ fraud...

-- HEADLINE: Rams designated RT Rob Havenstein (ankle/knee) to return from injured reserve.

Man, if the Rams get Havenstein back for this game...it would be huge.

And if Seattle loses Charles Cross...it shifts everything to the Rams, on paper, even more.

== COACHING RUMOR CENTRAL ==

-- HEADLINE: Eagles requested an interview with Bears offensive coordinator Declan Doyle for their offensive coordinator vacancy.

Finally, Doyle gets mentioned in the coaching mix. I’m shocked it has taken this long. I thought he’d be a head coach candidate. If I were him, I would not leave Ben Johnson for an O-C job...I’d wait for the Bears Super Bowl run next year and cash that in for a head coaching job.

-- HEADLINE: ESPN’s Rich Cimini believes Wink Martindale is an “early favorite” for the Jets defensive coordinator role.

Any living/breathing human who has ever coached a day of football is also a ‘favorite’ to be the D-C here. All the reports of no one wanting to work with Aaron Glenn...they are true. The Jets are the Titanic of NFL franchises.

OK, let’s look at the latest guesses on the open HC jobs (jobs listed by job or ‘the situation’ and/or the organizational respect among the league/candidates):

BUF = Brian Daboll...this is likely to happen with an early next week announcement unless Daboll bungles it.

Prediction Market favorite = Brian Daboll 0.44

-----------------------------------------------------------

LV = Davis Webb or Klint Kubiak...if Webb doesn’t get this, he might be the Bills new O-C and Ass’t Coach in training...maybe.

Vegas needs to make a quick/splash decision on Webb if they are serious about him, but they won’t…and if/when Webb shows favoritism to the Bills – then Tom Brady could be/will be offended. If the Ravens close the deal on Minter (let’s say) and Kubiak goes to Arizona and Udinski goes to Cleveland and Scheelhaase goes to Pittsburgh...the Raiders would have been late on the draw/denied by all top candidates for two years in a row. But LOOK Tom Brady is in charge, isn’t that so cool?!?!

They need to pick up the phone and interview Grant Udinski (so far, no contact) and/or make an extra push on Klint Kubiak (so far, one interview...but he is still coaching games). So far they have been chasing McDaniel-Evero-Minter type candidates stronger.

They need a young offensive mind to grow with their #1 pick QB...so, it’s probably likely they’ll pick a defensive minded name...because ‘NFL’. They can’t be THAT stupid, can they? Have you seen the Raiders last decade of coaching decisions? If there is any justice in the world, they’ll give the job to Rich Bisaccia like they should have however many years ago.

Prediction Market favorite = Klint Kubiak 0.74

-----------------------------------------------------------

BAL = Jesse Minter (hired THU night...we’ll comment on it in the days to come)

Prediction Market favorite = Jesse Minter 0.99

-----------------------------------------------------------

PIT = Nate Scheelhaase (but I think he will turn this down if he gets any better offer...or just ‘passes’ in general. The Steelers roster is so bad, they will have an extremely hard time filling the job with a real/fresh candidate...this is the most major roster rebuilding situation in the entire league. A several year rebuild runway/excuse may get a young coach in to want to have the blank canvas to work with). Ejiro Evero might have a shot here.

Prediction Market favorite = Chris Shula 0.53

-----------------------------------------------------------

ARI = Klint Kubiak or Grant Udinski...young coaches are reluctant to go take on McVay-Shanahan-Macdonald. You’ll know that’s true if Arizona is forced to go with a Mike McCarthy type by default.

Prediction Market favorite = Vance Joseph 0.44

-----------------------------------------------------------

CLE = Jim Schwartz or Mike McCarthy (but they want a guy like Scheelhaase or Udinski, but they’ll turn the Browns down...they’re too good of candidates to take this bottom feeder ownership/organization job...but maybe they throw enough money at Udinski...).

Schwartz is there when no one else wants the job...which means Mike McCarthy has a shot too. https://x.com/jasrifootball/status/2014096757257367828?s=43

Prediction Market favorite = Jim Schwartz 0.41

-----------------------------------------------------------

-- The shelf life of NFL coaches: https://x.com/dksportsbook/status/2014156370702966864?s=43

Of the nine: Five are either part of the McVay or Shanahan tree...or are McVay or Shanahan themselves. The other four, at a glance...are not tied to each other in any meaningful/’tree’ way. Three of these 9 are on a serious HOT seat in 2026.

-- Coaching is a tough profession:

https://x.com/jaguargator9nfl/status/2014038630545682791?s=43

Here’s some coaching life commentary from the great Bill Walsh on the battle NFL coaches face/faced in his day...and rings true to today. From the book: "The Score Takes Care of Itself"...

The Coaches

At the top of the club you’ve got the owner. He doesn’t have the knowledge he should have. He has a knowledge of business. He made it quickly. He wants things to be done quickly, without quite knowing how.

In the middle somewhere is the GM [general manager]. Nobody knows why he’s gotten to that position. He’s firmly within the owner’s comfort zone. He demands quite a salary for doing very little.

Then there’s a personnel man, often a frustrated player or coach. He justifies his position by sending the scouts out.

Then there’s the coach. He’s in there with his assistants at midnight, looking over the film again and again, trying to find out what’s wrong. And while he’s in there the owner and the GM and the personnel man are having dinner, and over martinis they’re discussing the team. The GM says, “Look, we’ve got the best facilities and administration and exhibition schedule. We’ve set up every possibility to do a job.” The personnel man says, “Well, we’ve certainly got the players. We had a great draft. I know because I read it in the papers. Look, everybody knows Smith is a guard, not a tackle. Everybody knows he should be playing instead of Jones. Everybody knows So-and-so should be the quarterback.”

They put their heads together. What do we do? So they get a new coach, obviously in the GM’s comfort zone but not too strong a threat. The personnel man’s going to side with the GM on anything. He knows where he got his job. So the cycle starts over again.

Every seven or eight years a GM is spat out. And the situation continues to exist. Why? TV, the hype, NFL Films, NFL Properties. Well, it should get the hype. It’s a great sport. But it’s sure tough on coaches.

—Bill Walsh

-- Looking for the Waddle list? That exercise was completed yesterday. A new ‘hierarchy list’ will be forthcoming this week.

1/22 THU

(6:54amET)

-- Today’s Agenda…

New Game Reports today

Conference Playoff Week projections update between 6-9pmET

FFM News & Notes during the day as I get them.

Senior Bowl Preview Reports

East-West Shrine Preview Positional Report

Anything else that pops up, and any early betting I might see.

== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==

-- OK, let’s talk about this Bills melodrama unfolding...

Let me give you some articles and headlines to consider before I give my reaction...read the full outsider articles ahead or just skim the headlines and go to my ‘take’.

*The genesis of the drama: https://nypost.com/2026/01/20/sports/contentious-bills-meeting-revealed-before-sean-mcdermott-firing/

*HEADLINE: Bills scheduled an interview with Commanders run game coordinator and RB coach Anthony Lynn for their head-coaching vacancy on Saturday.

*HEADLINE: Bills completed an interview with OC Joe Brady for their head-coaching vacancy.

*HEADLINE: The Athletic’s Dianna Russini reports former Giants head coach Brian Daboll is expected to take the Titans offensive coordinator job if he doesn’t land the Bills head coaching job.

A more detailed look from a team-centric site: https://www.buffalorumblings.com/buffalo-bills-coaching-staff/128149/brandon-beane-promoted-sean-mcdermott-fired-buffalo-bills-football-decisions-terry-pegula

This guy (eyeroll)... https://x.com/levelspicks/status/2013277671296274726?s=43

RC NOTES: OK, let me lay out the factoids that I understand and/or think...and then make a prediction...

-- Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane didn’t like each other. Most GMs and HCs, even if they come in together, wind up not liking each other at some point. This was no different. Sean McDermott is not ‘likeable’.

-- Brian Daboll hated Sean McDermott down the stretch of their time together (we know this from leaked emails/texts in the Brian Flores lawsuit/case).

I think the Bills ownership and management died a little inside when that happened/Daboll left for an HC job...they couldn’t make a move on Sean McDermott because of the backlash it would cause (that was peak ‘Bills’ period).

Nothing was better to Bills ownership and management than the Josh Allen and Brian Daboll connection...they believe Daboll was the major key to the Allen they have today.

-- Josh Allen is the Bills franchise...I mean that in every way possible. He’s bigger than the owner, the GM, and he alone will decide the next head coach of the Bills. Josh Allen is royalty, a Buffalo deity.

Whatever Allen says goes...not in the petulant, demanding sense...but in the ‘respect’ sense...this will be the opposite of whatever the drunken Ravens owner was pounding his chest about Lamar not mattering in decisions.

What Allen wants is who the next Bills coach will be.

-- The owner (Terry Pegula) credits the GM Brandon Beane for drafting Josh Allen...Beane’s figurative 401K plan is the fact that he drafted Allen. A job for life/Allen’s career for Beane. Nothing else really matters besides how things are related to Josh Allen. After McDermott was fired, Beane was lauded and promoted by the owner...mostly because ‘he drafted Josh Allen’.

It doesn’t matter what you think of Beane...or if he or the owner is lying about who was behind the Keon Coleman drafting...Beane is connected to the owner, and McDermott wasn’t. In other news, John Harbaugh just cut the GM’s head off and only deals with the owner.

Why NFL owners speak at a press conference ever is beyond me. If I owned an NFL team, I’d never speak to anyone in the press. It’s bad business and a waste of time, and nothing good comes from it. Ego rules many of them...it’s their toy to play with.

The Keon Coleman controversy means nothing to me...almost every GM that I’ve ever seen, covered, studied is a giant wuss that has never run a real business in their lives. GMs are like bureaucratic ‘diplomats’ for the owner...and lunch/gold BFFs for the owner...owners like their HIGHLY paid admin lapdogs/people called ‘GMs’.

-- Everybody in Bills management disliked McDermott to varying degrees (for good reason, he is unlikable), so now he’s gone...but some Bills fans and media are having their ‘you can’t fire a long-time successful coach like John Harbaugh’ moment with McDermott.

There’s a mild PR issue with the McDermott firing that Buffalo has to quell...but it probably feels like a major issue to the Bills owner and GM who are p***ies who aren’t used to criticism, especially in Buffalo, so they’re out trying to explain themselves and they sound like pre-teen idiots making excuses about why they didn’t turn in their homework yesterday. The GM and owner bond in their SAWFTness. McDermott was gruff and not fun to be around for them.

-- The owner and the GM Beane both highly respect Brian Daboll...somewhat as a ripple effect love off the absolute go-like worship of Josh Allen they both have. Anything related to Allen’s joy/success makes the owner and GM happy.

Brian Daboll makes Josh Allen happy.

Nov. 2025 (when Daboll got fired by NYG), Allen said: "I love the guy. Still got a lot of love for Coach Daboll."

July 2022 (when Daboll left for NYG), Allen said: "Guys want to play for this man. He's never not on—he talks ball and he thinks ball 24-7. He loves it, he absolutely loves it."

Oct. 2023 (NYG v. BUF pregame week), Allen said: "He's meant so much to me in my football career and in my life for that matter... When you look at the grand scheme of things in terms of football... I spent a lot of time with him. First and foremost, for me, it was him first [in terms of success]." Allen also noted that they still FaceTime about every other week just to check in.

All signs point to Brian Daboll being hired as the next head coach of the Bills...it makes a ton of logistical sense, it makes sense to make Josh Allen happy, and the one place Daboll is almost considered a Christ-like figure (for ‘creating’ Allen) is with the Bills mafia...the minor McDermott-firing criticisms will be swept away with Daboll announced as ‘back’.

This will be the only hiring in NFL history where the owner, GM, QB, and fanbase gets what they desperately want...and have wanted for years. No one in Buffalo will criticize or hate a Daboll decision...they will celebrate it as a liberation day. When Buffalo sees the happy Josh Allen hugs and fawning words to the camera -- Bills Mafia will jump through two tables in celebratory joy.

Daboll is set to interview today/Jan. 22, 2026.

Anthony Lynn is interviewing on Saturday...a sign (to me) of a wanting to hurry-up decision to choose Daboll. The Bills have to do a ‘Rooney Rule’ interview (get it ‘out of the way’) before they can hire anyone, so Lynn is that sad token. So, by Monday we could see Daboll as the new HC.

I’m sure Daboll wants it (and has no other real option as an HC, and this is a homecoming)...Allen wants it...Beane wants it...Pegula wants it...the Mafia wants it. They’ve wanted it since the day Daboll left Buffalo for NYG.

Only Daboll getting greedy could hold this up. I might guess Daboll is getting ‘frisky’ with contract demands if Buffalo calls for a Davis Webb meeting...or Buffalo just requests a meeting with Kubiak-Udinski, etc., on Monday...just to make Daboll and his agent sweat having to go to the Titans to e

-- HEADLINE: Vikings signed defensive coordinator Brian Flores to a contract extension.

He’ll never be a head coach again. No one likes him. He slinks back to Minnesota, where he’s about the only coach returning to the Vikings...they have cleaned house.

-- HEADLINE: Seahawks LT Charles Cross (foot) did not practice Wednesday.

This is a big deal in ‘predicting’ the NFC Conference winner. A watch item for the week, Two backup OLs are not practicing either...could be more precautionary.

-- HEADLINE: Broncos designated C Luke Wattenberg (shoulder) to return from injured reserve.

A huge help if Denver can get back their starting center for this crucial game with a backup QB starting.

-- The ‘NFL genius’ everybody... https://x.com/grantcohn/status/2014085753760870694?s=46

Whatever team trades for Jordan Addison is in the running for new ‘dumbest team in football’. I’ll expand on an Addison trade in more detail when it happens.

-- HEADLINE: 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said Gus Bradley is “the obvious one” to replace Robert Saleh as the team’s defensive coordinator.

If the 49ers trade for Addison and promote Gus Bradley...this team is not looking good for 2026, but Shanahan is a minor miracle worker, so...

-- CMC has a lead RB/job for life, but this was very gracious: https://x.com/oursf49ers/status/2014026081196712379?s=43

I guess Isaac Guerendo doesn’t exist?

Brian Robinson is a free agent now.

Jordan James has heat to be one of the 2026 support system RBs for SF.

OK, let’s look at the latest guesses on the open HC jobs (jobs listed by job or ‘the situation’ and/or the organizational respect among the league/candidates):

BUF = Brian Daboll...this is likely to happen with an early next week announcement.

LV = Davis Webb or Klint Kubiak...if Webb doesn’t get this, he might be the Bills new O-C and Ass’t Coach in training...maybe.

BAL = Jesse Minter

Schwartz is there when no one else wants the job...which means Mike McCarthy has a shot too.

-- Dynasty Owners...

Make sure you’ve read this message: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/6341-2026-conference-playoff-week-daily-news-and-comments-stream-mon-charbonnet-dynasty-kcs-new-o-c-nightmare

AND I’m gonna keep it on here at the end of this daily report every day to have it as a reminder to get through the next 2-3 weeks.

I know you want to storm the castle and make 152 trades right now.

BE PATIENT!!!!!

-- Looking for the Waddle list? That exercise was completed yesterday. A new ‘hierarchy list’ will be forthcoming this week.

-----------------------------------

1/21 WED

(7:26amET)

-- Today’s Agenda…

Playoff Game Report today.

News & Notes as I get them.

Senior Bowl Scouting Reports

East-West Shrine Scouting Reports

Divisional Round Projection update

== LATEST COACHING HIRES and COMMENTARY ==

-- I want to quickly comment on some of the recent HC hirings, that I haven’t really reacted to yet...and I don’t want to fully dive in right now because I need to see their staff before I can start fully weighing in, but I will give a first/quick reaction. When the dust settles I will do a deeper-dive breaking down these coach hirings + staffs and their impact on FF 2026+.

Kevin Stefanski to ATL = I think the Falcons job was starting to scare off younger up-and-comers, because the owner is the real QB coach and thus you have to live with Michael Penix and his injuries. Those HC candidates with options started shying away from this situation. Stefanski gets another payday, inherits the best all-around roster (of all the HC openings...ATL and BUF) and only needs to figure out how to deal with the QB situation. Figure out/get lucky at QB...and you’ve got a fighting chance in the division.

Kirk Cousins may re-do his deal to stay and be a stopgap and insurance policy. Dillon Gabriel...get ready to move to a warmer climate.

Jeff Hafley to MIA = I don’t know a ton about him, but I’ll be studying deeper soon enough. I didn’t see any major NFL defensive genius or college coaching prowess. I hear all the good things from the media, but I heard all the good things about Arthur Smith too, when he was a top candidate for jobs years ago. The Miami situation is an overall mess. Even the best candidate would have a tough time fixing this situation, but things can be fixed in 6 months...as we saw from 2025. I just don’t know that the new GM or Hafley are the ones to do it, but I’m open to it. Needs more study.

https://x.com/sleepercfb/status/2013381314641272975?s=43

https://x.com/schultz_report/status/2013386928473747561?s=43

Robert Saleh to TEN = Not good. Not good at all.

https://x.com/cdonnick1/status/2013481596863815685?s=43

https://x.com/mlfootball/status/2013477049453756847?s=43

I thought...maybe this could be saved a bit if he turns the offense over to his supposed good friend Mike McDaniel, but...

-- HEADLINE: Mike McDaniel is “expected to become” the Chargers’ new offensive coordinator.

I was a little surprised at first, for two reasons...

1) I thought McDaniel was gonna wait to be either Robert Saleh’s O-C or rejoin BFF Kyle Shanahan, but McDaniel is quite savvy...he picks the best offense/QB/O-Line for 2026 to be the ‘coordinator’...picks that over ‘I used to work with you’. Good job Mike...you’re smart.

2) I didn’t think Jim Harbaugh would go with an existing guy, ex-head coach type and rather going with a younger, up-and-coming pass game coordinator type.

BUT...the more I thought about it, it makes a ton of sense to go this way for Harbaugh/the Chargers. The Chargers are on the brink of something great and it really makes more sense to have an experienced, mature coach in place when you can get them versus taking a flyer on a young, inexperienced guy in this case. This current Charger situation (established team on the brink of greatness) does warrant a Mike McDaniel or a Brian Daboll or whatever someone with NFL cachet.

It doesn't seem like it's a done deal, as of this writing, it almost seems like they're allowing him to find out if he got a head coaching job somewhere else in the next 24 hours (???), which he won't, so I'm going to start operating on the assumption that Mike McDaniel is going to be the new Chargers O-C and that makes sense to me.

OK, let’s look at the latest guesses on the open HC jobs (jobs listed by job or ‘the situation’ and/or the organizational respect among the league/candidates):

BUF = Davis Webb...I bet this on the prediction markets at $0.13. Free advice...

LV = Ejiro Evero...they probably just lost out on any thought of Davis Webb to BUF when McDermott got fired. But if BUF goes with Brian Daboll, then Webb possibly here. Vegas needs to make a quick/splash decision on Webb if they are serious about him, but they won’t…and when Webb shows favoritism to the Bills – then Tom Brady will be offended. If the Ravens close the deal on Minter, the Raiders will have been late on the draw/denied by all top candidates for two years in a row. But LOOK Tom Brady is in charge, isn’t that so cool?!?!

They need a young offensive mind to grow with their #1 pick QB. So, it’s probably likely they’ll pick a defensive minded name.

BAL = Jesse Minter

PIT = Nate Scheelhaase (but I think he will turn this down if he gets any better offer...or just ‘passes’ in general. The Steelers roster is so bad, they will have an extremely hard time filling the job with a real/fresh candidate...this is the most major rebuild situation in the entire league. A several year rebuild runway/excuse, may get a young coach in to want to have the blank canvas to work with). Brian Flores is the fallback plan.

ARI = Klint Kubiak

CLE = Jim Schwartz (but they want a guy like Scheelhaase or Udinski, but they’ll turn them down...they’re too good of candidates to take this bottom feeder ownership/organization job...but maybe they throw enough money at Udinski...). Schwartz is there when no one else wants the job...which means Mike McCarthy has a shot too.

== News & Notes & Xs ==

-- Well, that escalated fast...

https://x.com/bakermayfield/status/2013758960994787523?s=43

-- FACTS! https://x.com/TitleTalkTCL/status/2013201932215521791

-- The public loves an underdog...but this does make sense for a fun bet: https://x.com/fdsportsbook/status/2013348236057260471?s=43

-- Remember that amazing Caleb TD throw Sunday?

https://x.com/musebaker/status/2013355741436912040?s=43

https://x.com/domclare/status/2013244407495979129?s=43

-- More respect for the returning Mike Pettine...MIN is really gonna miss him: https://x.com/tonygrossi/status/2013354917516161078?s=43

A really fine add-on comment I saw: https://x.com/DollarDogNick/status/2013357549123162218

-- Fallout from the 2025 Indiana-Miami CFB Title game...

1) https://x.com/ghettogronk/status/2013465401703756182?s=43

2) https://x.com/rogue_nole/status/2013480103217410420?s=43

3) https://x.com/notthefakednp/status/2013471907706786173?s=43

4) Oh no! The new ‘Nine’ meme... https://x.com/barstoolsports/status/2013466728403963945?s=43

-- Dynasty Owners...

Make sure you’ve read this message: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/6341-2026-conference-playoff-week-daily-news-and-comments-stream-mon-charbonnet-dynasty-kcs-new-o-c-nightmare

AND I’m gonna keep it on here at the end of this daily report every day to have it as a reminder to get through the next 2-3 weeks.

I know you want to storm the castle and make 152 trades right now.

BE PATIENT!!!!!

-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.

Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.

So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.

Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).

We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.

Current > Waddle count = 53 WRs (32 teams in)...THE FINALE!

CLEARY better than Waddle:

Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Nico Collins, Drake London

BETTER than Waddle:

A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Parker Washington, Chris Olave, Josh Downs, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, Rashee Rice, Michael Pittman, Wan’Dale Robinson, Emeka Egbuka, Jayden Higgins, Stefon Diggs, Jameson Williams, Alec Pierce, DeVonta Smith, Zay Flowers, Rome Odunze, Jakobi Meyers, Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Chimere Dike, Deebo Samuel, Courtland Sutton, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris, Romeo Doubs

SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:

Marvin Mims, Rashid Shaheed, Terry McLaurin, Jauan Jennings, Chris Godwin, Tory Horton, Kyle Williams, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir

**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**

Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:

DK Metcalf, DeVaughn Vele, Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Roman Wilson, Jack Bech, Calvin Austin, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Ricky Pearsall (too injured), Quentin Johnston, Mack Hollins, Malik Washington, Darius Slayton, Ryan Flournoy, Jayden Reed, Kayshon Boutte, Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, Jalen Nailor, Brandon Aiyuk (too ‘nuts’), Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Marvin Harrison, Elic Ayomanor, Tutu Atwell, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney

-------------------

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--------------------------------

1/20 TUE

(7:04amET)

-- Today’s Agenda…

Playoff Game Report today.

News & Notes as I get them.

Senior Bowl Scouting Reports

East-West Shrine Scouting Reports

Divisional Round Projections

== NEWS & NOTES ==

-- Sean McDermott was fired yesterday...

I thought the fact that Buffalo got screwed by the refs might have allowed McDermott to hang on, but he got an overdue removal. It was time to move on. He rode Josh Allen’s coattails as long as he could and the defense never got better despite chasing/spending a ton of payroll on it and starving the offense.

My first three thoughts on this as it pertains to the HC marketplace:

1) The shock firing of John Harbaugh, which I am still led to believe (from a source, and then saw some similar things discussed on some podcast) that Harbaugh was told or assumed he was returning by owner Steve Bisciotti, and Harbs was set to fire coordinators, but then Lamar Jackson had some input and then everything changed...and the owner, who wants us to believe he wrestled with the idea for a day+ then decided to back a Lamar future (rumored) and pull the plug on Harbaugh.

There’s holes in all that, but also what we’re being told to believe has holes in it too...

I absolutely do not think the owner had ‘a plan’ well thought out over the last few weeks of the season...if he had, if this was Steve Bisciotti’s masterplan vision for the business for weeks/months...if had the internal plan to replace a respected 18-season head coach...if the owner had thought ‘it is time’, he would’ve acted within 1-24 hours after the season ended...the owner would have been sure to set up some reason to meet, like a season ending assessment meeting, as they do, and the owner would have gone to Harbaugh one-on-one and told him it was time for a change and then they’d do a ‘mutually part ways’ classy thing that a guy like Harbaugh deserves. That would’ve been the classy way to handle the situation...and let Harbaugh get into the coaching market ASAP. But that’s nothing like what happened.

The owner waited approx. 48 hours to fire this respected, long-time employee/manager over the phone.

Over the phone.

What?

Why not do it right away and in person like a respectful human being? Or...why not wait a few days, if desired/needed scheduling-wise, until you could meet one-on-one...what was the rush if you knew you would be firing him but there was a scheduling glitch?

Something happened to trigger the owner to act abruptly. I think Bisciotti handled this incredibly poorly, but now he is out doing interviews boasting and acting like some great CEO that ‘the buck stops here’. Steve Bisciotti never does interviews, he always said he wants to be a hidden owner (which I would too as an owner)...so why do a big, wild interview now? And why go totally unprofessional and try to be ‘cool’ and make all these big, wild proclamations on what happened...and then admit you were literally crying on the phone about it and Harbaugh was trying to console you? Does any of this seem like the act of a well-thought out, table human being/owner? Everyone thought that rambling press conference was so great by Bisciotti...I thought it was wildly desperate and totally unnecessary...and he looks like every guy I ever saw, when I worked as a gopher for a bar in my high school years, that heavily drinks/is at the bar hanging out as a primary hobby -- just my feeling at a glance seeing his ‘look’, and mannerisms’, and rambling big proclamations about what a boss he thinks he is at that presser.

2) The Harbaugh firing opened the door/gave cover to the chicken/passive owners who have wanted to fire their long-time mediocre head coach, but they didn’t have the guts the past year/s. Bisciotti gave them cover to move out Mike Tomlin and now Sean McDermott.

The Tomlin situation was handled the right way. Let him save face for his years of service. Let him ‘step away’. That’s classy. What Bisciotti did was really awful optics and terrible leadership. Current head coaching candidates definitely took notice.

3) All these legacy head coach firings...they aren’t being done to hire another legacy coach in their place. Teams are starting to sense the massive, radical shift in the NFL...and the old school is ‘settling’, choosing a slow death versus ‘going for it’. I think the NY Giants made a MASSIVE mistake acquiescing to John Harbaugh’s huge demands. Good on Harbaugh and his agents to make the weak NYG owner bleed out...while neutering the NYG GM, who now is now virtually useless, and is just a lapdog...and will probably be fired by this time next year.

Harbaugh negotiated such a bloated staffing budget, I’ll bet a personnel and draft guy will be added as a ‘special assistant’ to Harbaugh and be part of his new staff and they will tell GM Schoen what to do and he has to do it now.

Harbaugh is gonna suck the Giants dry for the next few years. Good for him. That owner has plenty of money and should pay a ‘stupid tax’. And Harbaugh will do an OK enough job, but you didn’t try to hire a coach that could change your broken franchise radically…you hired the safe choice to get media approval…but unwittingly keeps you mired in mediocrity. It happens all the time in business…and there’s a time for that ‘boss’ hiring, but that time is not now…not right now in this rapidly changing era.

What happens to Sean McDermott now? If I were him, I’d say I was ‘stepping away for a year’...because no one is going to hire him. He thinks he’ll be in-demand like Harbaugh. He won’t be. He is the least respected of the Harbaugh-Tomlin-Stefanski type just-fired candidates. If he stepped away for a year, he’d be in-demand a bit after people have had a chance to ‘miss him’...like a Mike McCarthy does/dupes the NFL owners and its fans. It’s Cleveland or a year off, for McDermott, I think.

What is Buffalo gonna do? Three thoughts...

1) Denver QB coach Davis Webb...like I’ve been saying, the secret/quiet hottest head coach candidate out there. Buffalo needs to move fast, because the Raiders could make a big offer to Webb and stop him from talking to Buffalo.

Webb will want to go to Buffalo...to be with Josh Allen (they are close) and Buffalo has the better fanbase and a new stadium, etc.

Whether Buffalo is willing to make that radical, visionary decision...depends on if the GM or the owner makes the decision potentially.

2) Possibly this could be Brian Daboll as the choice...and then he grabs Webb if no one hires Webb as an HC.

Also, this could be Webb gets the HC job, and they simultaneously agree to hire Daboll as the O-C and the experienced assistant head coach/Yoda for Webb/Allen-whisperer.

Or just Webb goes it alone, and he puts his own fresh staff together.

3) I would bet you this = it will not be Joe Brady.

My first inclination is -- it’s gonna be an OG/original gangsta Bills reunion of Webb and/or Daboll with Allen, I have a feeling. This hiring is all about Josh Allen’s wants/desires, as it should be.

*Tomorrow, I’ll update the head coaching prediction board and comment more on the Hafley, Stefanski, and the just happened Robert Saleh *insert open palm slap to the forehead emoji here* hirings.

-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.

Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).

We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.

Current > Waddle count = 51 WRs (31 teams in)...we’ve hit the 50 mark with 2 teams to go.

CLEARY better than Waddle:

Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Nico Collins, Drake London

BETTER than Waddle:

A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Parker Washington, Chris Olave, Josh Downs, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, Rashee Rice, Michael Pittman, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jayden Higgins, Stefon Diggs, Emeka Egbuka, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Alec Pierce, DeVonta Smith, Rome Odunze, Jakobi Meyers, Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Chimere Dike, Courtland Sutton, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris, Romeo Doubs

SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:

Marvin Mims, Rashid Shaheed, Jauan Jennings, Chris Godwin, Tory Horton, Kyle Williams, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir

**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**

Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:

DK Metcalf, DeVaughn Vele, Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Roman Wilson, Jack Bech, Calvin Austin, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Ricky Pearsall (too injured), Quentin Johnston, Mack Hollins, Malik Washington, Darius Slayton, Ryan Flournoy, Jayden Reed, Kayshon Boutte, Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, Jalen Nailor, Brandon Aiyuk (too ‘nuts’), Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Marvin Harrison, Elic Ayomanor, Tutu Atwell, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney

-------------------

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1/19 MON

(7:10amET)

-- Today's Agenda...

Game reports from the Divisional playoffs will post daily all week, all completed before the next round starts. Ross is doing the NFC, and I am reporting the AFC (but watching/studying all the games).

FFM news stream page as we get good/interesting intel.

Senior Bowl scouting previews

Stash Report Update

== SUNDAY GAME FIRST REACTIONS ==

HOU-NE

-- My ‘all games are 50/50 in the playoffs’ catchphrase for 2026 holds up here...a one score game going into the 4th-quarter, snow/slippery field, mass in-game injuries for Houston, a ton of turnovers and near-miss turnovers on both sides. I’m not convinced, one way or the other, that the Patriots were the better team here, big picture...but they won...again. The team with the better O-Line and HC won...my OL and HC playoff thesis got back on track Sunday after taking its first hits Saturday.

-- I think C.J. Stroud just officially played his way out of any 2026 contract extension...and may instead go into year four of his 4-year rookie deal likely to be pitted against Davis Mills for a camp competition for the Week 1 job in 2026.

https://x.com/draftkings/status/2013004766629052550?s=43

But DeMeco is so personally tied to Stroud, it probably clouds his judgement...as it has all season. I don’t think Ryans has good judgement AT ALL about offensive things...but great defense, however.

It’s not a ‘this game’ thing or ‘these playoffs’ thing. Stroud has been rough all season, and we’ve pointed it out all season. Now the situation is a bit more dire after a disastrous playoffs.

https://x.com/carsobi/status/2013029584904528372?s=43

-- Three other Stroud scenarios to discuss...

1) Houston has to decide about Stroud’s 5th-year option. I assume they will pick it up, but it’s no longer a slam dunk.

2) Houston will likely look at trades of Stroud (get ready Cleveland)...but probably won’t find any real bidders. I bet the Texans may be internally thinking today...if we just had a solid, stable veteran...like Cousins or Flacco...

Possibly, the only thing that stood between Texans and the Super Bowl...Stroud getting hurt midseason and out for the year, and them adding Flacco or Cousins and/or just going with Davis Mills.

Crazy statement, that I definitely mean: If Jameis Winston were this team’s Week 1 QB, and played through all season, the Texans might have been the power in the AFC. Possibly, if they had Jacoby Brissett.

The difference in Houston being good/erratic and being good/great was the QB...and it was fixable all along.

https://x.com/phldawgs/status/2013008042371993985?s=43

3) Someone has to take Demeco Ryans and/or the GM into account for this, at some point, no? The offense has been letting them down for the past two years...their O-Line has been one of the worst in the league two years running. Stroud has gotten worse every year and is now a shell of himself. Where is the GM fortifying the O-Line (instead taking two really good Iowa State rookie WRs they don’t use/didn’t develop...and bypassing desperately needed OL prospects) Where is the coaching/developing of these things? ‘Great defense, terrible offense’ only gets you so far in the NFL now.

These ex-defensive coordinators turned head coaches are not doing QBs/offenses any favors unless they get an ace offensive coordinator...but they are usually very ‘blind’ to what a good offensive coordinator is (in this era)...AND really good/up-and-coming offensive-minded O-C prospects want nothing to do with playing for defensive-minded HCs.

Houston is at a crossroads.

https://x.com/rodger/status/2012999595287101667?s=43

-- Houston lost Trent Brown and Nico Collins before the game. Lost Cade Stover, Dalton Schultz in-game. Lost Woody Marks and Tytus Howard for several stretches in-game as well.

All the injuries...all the turnovers...and it was just 21-16 Pats going into the 4th-quarter.

-- Not a lot to say about the Patriots...they played OK/fine. For the second week in a row, they just kinda stayed out of the way and watched two (LAC, HOU) of the league’s bottom 3 offensive lines in the NFL (our internal metrics) self-implode.

https://x.com/pilotomemeslat/status/2012988622853562498

-- TreVeyon Henderson so does not matter to Vrabel/McDaniels...12 carries, 25 yards, 1 catch for -2 yards, and out of position on pass blocking multiple times again this game. He’s a liability...and one of the favorites to win the OROY?

-- I tried to tell the NFL he was a top 10 prospect his draft season...

https://x.com/fieldyates/status/2012994838640128199?s=43

-- Patriots at Broncos...why do I have a funny feeling the setup is gonna create a Denver rise-up/shock moment against a lightly tested Patriots?

https://x.com/nfl_convo/status/2013051916012401087?s=43

LAR-CHI

-- For my money, the two best teams in the tournament played here...and it was, yes...a 50/50 game...and scored another win for the better O-Line but not the better coach.

The weather played some part in this...to where it wasn’t a true representation of the two teams, and that factor was even worse in the earlier HOU-NE game. They play the entire season in domes and mild weather, mostly, then get to the playoffs and the teams fight each other and the elements.

The playoffs, especially this season’s tournament, is not about crowning the league’s best team...it’s about who escaped the attrition of weather and referee calls and in-game injuries the best. The league’s best team is not determined by this tournament...but it sure is fun to watch.

https://x.com/optastats/status/2013114976651653460?s=43

-- I have been wildly unimpressed with Sean McVay since the Seattle debacle Week 16. He basically just tongue kisses/lets Matt Stafford do whatever he wants. Their play calls/patterns have almost cost them every one of their last 5 games.

But credit the ‘all-in Stafford plan’ in a sense because...here they are in the Final Four. And this style is best suited to face...Seattle.

https://x.com/adamgrosbard/status/2013099896811749565?s=43

https://x.com/sharpfootball/status/2013068158559567967?s=43

https://x.com/sheilkapadia/status/2013078925740581296?s=43

https://x.com/sharpfootball/status/2013056089265238420?s=43

-- I want to go on record with a few things pro-Bears here..

1) Caleb Williams is arguably the single best QB in the NFL...because he is the single most dangerous QB in the league...and he still has room to grow, refine.

Sure, you get a few offline throws, you live with that to get the most ‘money’ late game QB in the league...the most gifted in the league...and the most blessed having Ben Johnson arrive there.

Some might disagree: https://x.com/ghettogronk/status/2013113857070252395?s=43

https://x.com/vikesinsider/status/2013093874072178756?s=43

2) That Caleb TD throw late has to be the play, the most display of talent play of the entire season. It’s the Saquon ‘backwards jump over a tackler’ event of 2025-26.

https://x.com/nextgenstats/status/2013079442848092520?s=43

https://x.com/fdsportsbook/status/2013079434509602950?s=43

3) Ben Johnson has to be the best coach in the NFL...with the best all-around staff. Ben put together that staff...Ben coached up/took Caleb towards his God-given ability+...Ben crushed the 2025 free agency period...Ben coaches to win, he doesn’t coach scared.

Some don’t agree: https://x.com/section344lions/status/2013085295709687892?s=43

https://x.com/grimpost/status/2013077557130703297?s=43

A year from now, Super Bowl matchup: Bears vs. Chargers...? You know who wins? It’s 50/50.

-- The one matchup I was hoping to get, eventually, was the Rams versus Seattle...from a Rams betting to go to the Super Bowl perspective. I think the Rams are gonna come off that Week 16 event, where they piled on points on Seattle but then had the game stolen from the by the refs (like the Bills and Panther got ripped off) -- and that the one team I had confidence in the Rams beating was gonna be the rematch with Seattle.

I’m not so sure anymore/today, but I stick to my theory...

O-Line edge = Rams

Head Coach/staff edge = I think it’s lean Rams

QB edge = Stafford

Overall edge to = Rams.

BUT...Seattle’s defensive edge brings us to...’it’s a 50/50 game’.

https://x.com/fanduel/status/2013117968289521666?s=43

-- Final note from the weekend...

Congratulations NFL...this has been the worst officiated, most incompetent aid from ‘New York’ playoffs there has been in the modern era.

https://x.com/mschwartztv/status/2013075959855956414?s=43

-- New Hierarchy list for the month...’The Waddle List’.

Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).

We start the debut with Arizona and go all the way to Washington.

Current > Waddle count = 50 WRs (30 teams in)...we’ve hit the 50 mark with 2 teams to go.

CLEARY better than Waddle:

Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Ladd McConkey, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Nico Collins, Drake London

BETTER than Waddle:

A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Parker Washington, Chris Olave, Josh Downs, Garrett Wilson, Christian Watson, Rashee Rice, Michael Pittman, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jayden Higgins, Stefon Diggs, Emeka Egbuka, Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Alec Pierce, DeVonta Smith, Rome Odunze, Jakobi Meyers, Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Courtland Sutton, Isaac TeSlaa, Jalen Coker, Brian Thomas Jr., Cedric Tillman, Tre Harris, Romeo Doubs,

SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:

Marvin Mims, Rashid Shaheed, Jauan Jennings, Chris Godwin, Tory Horton, Kyle Williams, Jaylen Noel, D.J. Moore, Khalil Shakir

**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**

Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:

DK Metcalf, DeVaughn Vele, Jordan Addison, Travis Hunter, Roman Wilson, Jack Bech, Calvin Austin, Luther Burden, Pat Bryant, Ricky Pearsall (too injured), Quentin Johnston, Mack Hollins, Malik Washington, Darius Slayton, Ryan Flournoy, Jayden Reed, Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, Jalen Nailor, Brandon Aiyuk (too ‘nuts’), Kayshon Boutte, Tre Tucker, Xavier Worthy, Marvin Harrison, Tutu Atwell, Keon Coleman, Rashad Bateman, Jerry Jeudy, Troy Franklin, Xavier Legette, Darnell Mooney

-------------------

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*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting