- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Eagles 25, 49ers 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The two teams with the most injuries in the NFL this season played a game, and one of them…the one not playing their 2nd and 3rd-string QB won. The team playing their 1st-string QB beat the one that threw every pass to their tight end. No more, no less analysis needed here.
Let’s take a step back and look at the 49ers’ season so far…and it’s not good. Lost to Arizona, that as we are now finding out, isn’t that great of a team and thus is a bad loss. Beat the two New York teams…really, this gets us excited? Lost to previously no-win Philadelphia. The 49ers have played a collection of teams likely all to have a losing record this year, and three of them might be picking top 5 in the 2021 NFL Draft, they’re that bad…and the 49ers have two wins to show for it.
The 49ers’ injuries and schedule is about to swallow them up and spit them out…unless Kyle Shanahan pulls more miracles out, which is possible. Watch out for Miami to possibly upset them this week. We see the 49ers going 8-9 wins this year. Too many injuries, and no more NY matchups on the schedule to book more easy wins.
The Eagles ‘steal’ a win…they aren’t very good, and they just beat an overrated 49ers team. They have @PIT and BAL the next two weeks, then NYG at home Week 7 -- which means they are likely to be (2-4-1) heading into Week 8 hosting Dallas…probably, a game for the NFC East lead. Today, we project Philly around 6-7 wins this season…and 6-9-1 may win this division…I’m not joking.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Carson Wentz (18-28 for 193 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) got a job-saving win here. In fact, I’d say that this win…and the sad state of the NFC East…just bought Wentz and Doug Pederson jobs for the rest of 2020. Just from this one win.
Had Philly lost here, and it’s likely they will lose Weeks 5-6, they might have been (0-5-1) heading to play the Giants Week 7 and benching and firings would have been on the table strong. Now, a 1-4-1 record going into Week 7 hosting NYG will probably have them a half game out of 1st-place.
If Philly drops to (1-4-1) and then loses Week 7 hosting NYG…all hell will break loose. If they then lose Week 8 hosting Dallas to fall to (1-6-1) heading into a Week 9 BYE, expect a QB change and an axe to fall on Pederson. It’s unlikely they will lose four in-a-row, but not improbable.
If the Eagles are (3-4-1), after beating Dallas Week 8, they’ll likely be 1st-place and everyone’s jobs are safe the rest of the season. Even (2-5-1) will not be ‘out of it’.
Jalen Hurts (3-18-0) is likely in moth balls this season unless a Weeks 7-8 meltdown happens. Why the Eagles drafted Hurts, and with everyone watching rookie QBs explode around the league, but only has like one play a week for the ‘weapon’ Hurts is just a sign of the bigger problem here. There is no real/great plan. The Eagles stink on offense and have a corrupted O-Line and they can only think one interesting play a week for Hurts in a season/a game of desperation.
-- The best QB on the field in this game was SF 3rd-string relief QB C.J. Beathard (14-19 for 138 yards, 0 TD/0 INT). He came into the game like a whirlwind late and almost led the comeback win. He looked great but also it was against a soft prevent-ish Philly, gassed defense.
Everyone who was wondering if Nick Mullens was worth a 2nd-round pick to some NFL team to acquire…ummm, go watch this game. We are so enslaved to what happened the prior week with no context of it all -- Mullens wins two games over NYJ and NYG and the fanbase of 10 different NFL teams want THEIR team to go trade a high draft pick for the gift that is Nick Mullens. Now, Mullens isn’t even 2nd-string for his own team and no cares about him one bad game later.
-- Jerick McKinnon (14-54-1, 7-43-0/8) had another dull rushing effort as the lead dog…note that he played two top 10/strong run defenses the past two weeks (PHI and NYG).
This makes me wonder…do the 49ers really have a great run game?
Week 1 = Mostert led them with 15 carries for 3.7 ypc…his big moment on a short pass turned 80-yard TD.
Week 2 = Mostert had an 80-yard run and McKinnon a 55 yarder on the Jets…but it was the Jets. The two combined for 34 yards on 9 carries otherwise in that game.
Week 3 = The whole backfield combined for 35 carries for 93 yards rushing, 2.7 ypc.
Week 4 = McKinnon as lead dog, 14 carries for 54 yards, 3.9 ypc. It was a Brandon Aiyuk 38-yard run/leaping TD run that boosted their rushing tally…and that play was a hoax (I’ll get into it in a moment).
Maybe Raheem Mostert isn’t the best ‘buy low’ RB out there? Maybe he’s a hoax because of a long TD pass in broken coverage Week 1 and an opening game 80-yard rushing TD against the Jets starting a practice squad ILB who missed the play (among other things)?
After looking at this deeper, I’m putting the brakes on anything to do with the 49ers run game…I need to see more info. What I see so far, might be a bit of a fraud/hoax in our minds (remembering those long TD plays by Mostert is what sticks in our minds…it’s pretty dull otherwise).
-- Should we confidently start Deebo Samuel (1-10-0, 3-35-0/3) now? I guess. The schedule starts to get tougher, and the 49ers have all kinds of problems on defense…it should lead to a lot of passing ahead. Unless the 49ers do get it together and run-game all over teams. We haven’t had Jimmy G.-Deebo-Aiyuk-Mostert-Tevin-McKinnon all in the same place at the same time to know what this offense is going to do.
Deebo played just 34% of the snaps and got decent touches for his first game back. He looked fine, physically, speed-wise I thought.
-- Brandon Aiyuk (1-38-1, 2-18-0/5) scored that impressive, leaping TD…so now he’s a Hall of Famer too. But consider…
Aiyuk took that jet sweep and as he was about to get a nice 10+ yard gain, the pulling OL came out and dove into CB Darius Slay’s knee helmet first. Slay was in position to stop the play or turn it inside for others to tackle, but Slay took a wicked hit and just turned his back to the field and fell (in pain/couldn’t support himself) towards the sideline and Aiyuk just ran right through the abandoned space and he raced to the end zone for a highlight reel TD. It took a cheap block sending a defender to the ground with an injury at just the right time to make it happen.
If the block hadn’t opened the space…Aiyuk has a 10-15 yard run, a nothing fantasy day, and people are dropping him in some leagues. Instead, he’s now a star because of one play. Our eyes are dangerous things in fantasy.
As a receiver, in his three starts, Aiyuk is averaging 3.0 rec., 36.3 yards, 0.0 TDs…not necessarily FF gold. It’s the fact that he has run for two TDs that has everyone’s attention. Be careful. Sell high, potentially. Deebo back. Mostert back. Jimmy G. back. Kittle back. Is Aiyuk going to be the breakout star in a muted passing game with all them? He will be if he runs for a TD every week.
-- Who is Travis Fulgham (2-57-1/3). Former 6th-round pick of Detroit in 2019 that you don’t need to worry about.
I love that Cris Collinsworth is having an orgasm when Fulgham caught that 42-yard TD pass. How do the Eagles do it? Where did this guy come from? They’re having to do this with journeymen receivers, Al!!!
Yeah, how about the fact that the 49ers were using journeymen corners, 3rd-string and worse because of injuries. The only thing more injured than the Eagles WR corps is the 49ers defensive backfield.
-- Receiver numbers from this game:
18 rec., 193 yards, 1 TD = The Eagles entire team
17 rec., 155 yards, 0 TD = The 49ers entire team less George Kittle
15 rec., for 183 yards, 1 TD = George Kittle this game.
15 rec. for 157 yards, 0 TD = George Kittle’s last 4 games prior to this (3 of them being the playoffs last season)
If you faced Kittle this week…what can you do? You can’t control the schedule. If you faced him Week 3, you wouldn’t have -- he didn’t play. But you faced him Week 4 and got this in your face? How can you down yourself or your FF team if he made you lose?
-- Let’s add another line to the comparison above…
19 rec., 139 yards, 1 TD = Zach Ertz entire 2020 (4 games)
Note = The 49ers are terrific against the TE, thus part of Ertz’s (4-9-0/5) game here. Trouble for Mike Gesicki this week (5) and then issues for Tyler Higbee Week 6.
-- This SF-DST just got rolled over by a horrific Eagles offense that has no O-Line left. The 49ers have been beating up on the NY QBs prior. This 49ers-defense is in huge trouble ahead due to injuries and age and a weak D-C.
Weeks 6-13, you cannot use them with any confidence…or use them at all. If you got the SF-DST, you need to flip it/prepare for the crash coming. Week 5 v. Fitzpatrick is their last real chance for a long while/ROS.
Snap Counts of Interest:
67 = McKinnon
06 = J Wilson
64 = Aiyuk
50 = Bourne
37 = Tr Taylor
25 = Deebo
48 = M Sanders
09 = B Scott
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Bills 30, Raiders 23
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Now, let’s talk about ‘my’ Bills…
Did you know the Bills have gotten out to a 10+ point lead at some point in each game in the 1st-half of every game they’ve played in 2020? They get up big quickly, then their opponents close the gap a little…and then Buffalo punches the accelerator and wins.
In this game, Buffalo got up 17-6 late 2nd-quarter…but the Raiders scored right before the half to close the gap. Las Vegas never led in this game but closed the gap to 1-point after three quarters (17-16). Buffalo scored on the first play of the 4th-quarter and then again to swing back up by 14. A late garbage TD made it a 7-point win for the/my Bills.
The Bills have a tough next two weeks, facing the AFC finalists from last season – at TEN and then hosting KC the next two weeks. The good news for Buffalo is – Tennessee will play this week’s game (if) with a lot of players out due to COVID. Then, if you want to have a chance to beat KC…you want to have them come to you, on a Thursday Night game (if only there could be rabid Bills’ Mafia there).
Buffalo is (4-0) and we project them (6-1) hosting New England Week 8…with a chance to put a bullet in the Patriots’ AFC East decades of dominance.
Las Vegas was headed to the playoffs after Week 2, two wins right away…but they’re now (2-2) and have to go to KC this week. We still see 9-10 wins here and a wild card. Losing to Buffalo is not a crime.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Josh Allen (24-34 for 288 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is still playing great. Some of the throws he made in this game…unreal…almost as good as Justin Herbert this week. Allen is working very Mahomes-like…confident, aggressive, successful, down field flicks on the money.
The Bills are 5th in scoring in the NFL, 4th most total yards, 2nd-most passing yards, 3rd-most passing TDs. You want in on this passing game for FF.
Stefon Diggs (6-115-0/7) is obvious…he is very good and playing with the best QB he’s ever been with.
But what works after Diggs?
Cole Beasley (3-32-1/4) is Mr. Reliable and he works solidly for FF. But Allen’s real #2 look over any of the other WRs, TEs, RBs is John Brown (4-42-0/5).
I love Brown as the ‘buy low’ of the week. People overlook Buffalo for offense in general. Diggs captures everyone’s attention first/last. Brown has a boring name…’John Brown’, how can that be exciting/any good? He had a ‘meh’ FF game here. He had a zero FF game Week 3 (due to early injury and out). You can slide in and snag him as a WR3-level acquisition potentially. You want to pay low, not buy at all costs. He’s a WR2 hopeful.
Here’s the way we could look at Brown’s season-to-date…
1) We ignore Week 3 completely…he left early with no catches, didn’t return.
2) Do the math on Weeks 1-2 and 4.
3) Add a TD to Week 4 because he caught a TD, at the goal line, he was in…but due to some inconclusive replay they ruled it down at the one-inch line. Had that been ruled a TD, then in Brown’s three real game performances in 2020, he would have a TD each game.
Using points #2 and #3 above, Brown is averaging in 2020:
4.7 rec. (7.0 targets), 64.7 yards, 1.0 TDs per game…that turns into 12.5 FF PPG/17.2 PPR PPG. That would place him 13th among WRs in non-PPR scoring per game this season and 19th in PPR.
You’d like the talented #2 WR in a top 5 offense with a sudden top 3 QB.
-- I’m looking fort a sign that Dawson Knox (2-16-0/3) might go for the ride in all this as well, but not yet. He was hurt Week 3 and split time Week 4.
He’ll probably have a 2 TD game ahead and go back on ‘sleeper’ lists for FF analysts, he’ll pull an Ebron/Tonyan/Sample, etc.
There’s hope here if Josh Allen continues flying high. Knox looks just like/better than all the Tonyan, Schultz, Sample type guys in on-field ‘look’/movement…talented and athletic, but the TE has not been a star for Buffalo under Allen -- BUT fill-in TEs had 3 total TDs Week 3 when Know was out. This is a new Josh Allen…it might click any week now, but still more TE2 than TE1 but TE1 hope among the TE2/3s.
-- We all think Derek Carr (32-44 for 311 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) sucks, but he’s actually been pretty nice this year. 8 TDs/0 INT, 73.6% Comp. Pct., and 273.8 passing yards per game. What else do you want from the guy? He’s a solid #2 QB right now in fantasy, a consideration if the matchup works.
-- With Edwards/Ruggs out and losing all their momentum, they’ve given rise to Nelson Agholor (4-44-1/5) as the Raiders’ new #1 WR. And I don’t think that’s going to change anytime soon.
Agholor is playing lights out. Had his best game of 2020 (or 2019) here, and 4-44-1-/4 looks weaker-good…but note he lost three catches on penalties this game, all defensive penalties that were either taken to get the 1st-down, so he lost the play. And one of his negated catches was a sweet 49-yard TD.
Agholor’s line in this game should’ve been: 7-103-2/7…and then everyone would be flying in as if he were Tim Patrick but better, instead Patrick is being chased after like a god and Agholor is ignored. If Ruggs/Edwards stay out…Agholor is the guy…and I’m not sure he won’t be when they return.
I love Bryan Edwards, but he opened the door for Agholor and Nelson busted in and may send Edwards to a backup/part-time role the rest of the season. When the rookie WRs were all healthy earlier in the season…they all rotated anyway, so I suspect Agholor will be a starter from here on in but rotating around in/out and having upside capped.
-- Josh Jacobs (15-48-0, 3-25-0/4) scored 3 TDs opening week and was declared an FF god. Since Week 1, his last three games, Jacobs has posted:
19.0 carries, 69.0 rush yards (3.8 ypc), 0.0 rush TDs, 3.0 rec., 18.0 rec. yards, 0.0 TDs per game.
That’s 8.7 FF PPG/11.7 PPR PPG…meaning since Week 2, Jacobs is #30 non-PPR in total points, #28 in PPR total points among RBs…even worse rankings if you go to a PPG calculation. He’s been an RB4 the past three games.
-- Devin Singletary (18-56-1, 5-21-0/7) feels way less sexy than Jacobs, but since Week 2…Devin has been the #18 non-PPR scorer among RBs, #22 in total PPR points in that span.
Singletary is tied for 6th in most catches this season by a running back.
We’ll see if he keeps a 70/30 split over the great Zack Moss, when Moss returns this week or next.
Snap Counts of Interest:
67 = Agholor
66 = Zay Jones
50 = Renfrow
03 = Doss
56 = Diggs
52 = Brown
36 = G Davis
21 = McKenzie
18 = Beasley
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Ravens 31, Football Team 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Is anyone surprised by this outcome? Did anyone learn anything new about these teams?
The Ravens cruised.
Dwayne Haskins sucks (and his career ended).
Everything that happened is mostly irrelevant because Washington will never play a game with Haskins starting on purpose again and Chase Young was out for TFC’s defense.
This is almost a waste of my time to re-watch.
…but we need to touch on the Kyle Allen affect ahead for FF.
Actually, I was surprised by the outcome here a little…despite Haskins…despite Chase Young out…Ravens coming off an embarrassment on MNF – Washington kinda put up a tiny fight. The Ravens didn’t totally steam roll them by 25+ like I thought they might/have done to many recent weaker opponents. And Haskins threw for 300+ yards.
Washington beat Philly opening day. Washington led Cleveland in the 4th-quarter Week 3 before Haskins gave it away. Washington, for a bad team, actually isn’t that bad (thus the Haskins change) and they played superior Baltimore not-so-awful.
The F-Team’s defense is made to give the Rams fits Week 5. The Rams are S-A-W-F-T and Washington is high pressure. I like the F-Team to cover and maybe outright win this week. If they do, they go to (2-3) with NYG-DAL-BYE-NYG-DET-CIN the next 6 weeks…all winnable games/weak opponents (which TFC is too). Washington could very well be (5-5) heading into a killer part of their schedule starting Week 12. They could also be (3-7) or (7-3). At least there is hope in D.C. for TFC.
Baltimore continues to destroy regular season opponents, except KC last week. They are (15-1) in their last 16 regular season games. CIN and at PHI the next two weeks before their BYE, so make it (17-1) in their last 18 games two weeks from now. I can’t wait for their showdown game with PIT in Week 8.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- So, what happens to Washington with Kyler Allen now starting? Well, first things first…please note that Kyle Allen kinda sucks as well, just not as much as Dwayne Haskins (32-45 for 314 yards, 0 TD/0 INT). It’s not like a great QB is taking over. Things get a bit better, probably ‘safer’ for trying to win NFL games. It’s likely biding time to Alex Smith taking over.
What happens for FF purposes?
One thing I wanted to point out from this game, it’s why Washington kept it close and why Haskins passed for 300+ yards – what a great game of screen passes, tunnel screen passes, bubble screen passes by TFC. A very smart game plan by O-C Scott (Spawn of Norv) Turner. If they deploy that strategy ahead…it’s going to good for the short passing game winners (the RBs specially) from this week (and great for Joe Mixon in Week 5 v. BAL if Zac Taylor pays attention to this game tape).
Washington completed 32 passes here…11 to the RBs. Much of Isaiah Wright’s 4 catches were at/behind the LOS almost like he was an RB. Very smart when you’re under gunned in an NFL game.
Kyle Allen winners and losers for FF:
1) WINNER Terry McLaurin (10-118-0/14) – Allen wore out D.J. Moore last year, made him a star due to volume. You’d assume he’ll do the same for McLaurin.
Note – WAS has two games in the next 4 weeks with NYG…James Bradberry on McLaurin isn’t going to be that juicy for Terry for FF, potentially.
McLaurin as a WR1 the rest of the year is on the table now, at least.
2) WINNER J.D. McKissic (2-6-0, 7-40-0/8) – He can be a HUGE PPR winner here…from that standpoint that if you want a James White-type guy, here he is…could have anywhere from 3-10 catches per game as an easy throw out of the backfield – like this game. Kyle Allen is used to throwing to Christian McCaffrey a lot, so here would be his guy for that.
3) SMALL WINNER Antonio Gibson (13-46-1. 4-82-0/5) -- wins by just being in a little better offense. He was doing fine already.
4) UNKNOWN Steven Sims (DNP) v. Isaiah Wright (4-20-0/5) – I don’t know if Sims was benched Week 3 due to his toe injury, or by preference. I think Sims may be on ‘the outs’. If he’s not, he’d get in on these tunnel and bubble screens and be a WR3/flex excitement again. It’s unclear his future right now.
Wright, for his part, is solid but he’s nowhere near as exciting as Sims. But Sims may be toast with the staff here. I’m really not sure. I’m getting mixed signals.
5) NEUTRAL Logan Thomas (1-8-0/4) – No change. Haskins threw a lot to Thomas, blindly. Allen probably won’t. Lesser targets, better QB…net neutral. Greg Olsen nor Ian Thomas flourished with Allen in Carolina last year.
Note…this is the same QB, O-C, and head coach from Carolina 2019. Comparisons and assumptions of 2019 and 2020 are warranted and valid.
-- I thought the Ravens might give J.K. Dobbins (5-16-0, 1-1-0/1) as push here after they got embarrassed on MNF, maybe a refresh of the offense was needed/desired – nope. He got the opposite of a push. He got his least work all year. Barely played when it mattered. Back into a holding pattern.
-- Note, Marquise Brown (4-86-0/8) has no TDs this season, but he caught a pass here and turned it into a long play and near-TD – falling a yard short. He’s fallen a yard or so short of a TD 2-3x already this season. Don’t write him off for lack of TDs. He’s due for a 100+ yard game with multi-TDs.
This week against the Bengals lines up nicely.
-- We all respect the Ravens defense, especially their pass defense, but…
They are #26 in pass yards per game allowed this season.
Opposing QBs have completed 67.3% of their passes against them with 6 TDs/2 INTs. They are middle of the pack in sacks.
This pass defense may not be as great as we think.
Also, Mahomes makes up a chunk of the bad stats. Minus the KC game…they are more upper half of the league in pass D things. It will be interesting to see if rookie Joe Burrow is thrown for a loop…or works through them without much struggle.
The Ravens-DST has a nice schedule ahead…only a Week 7 BYE, Week 8 v. PIT, Week 12 at PIT, Week 13 v. DAL are real threats to them – and the PIT games are usually slogs/wars.
The Rams-DST is a good pairing, but more achievable…the Bills-DST picked up ahead is a step in the right direction. Bills v. Jets Week 7 when BAL is on a BYE.
Snap Counts of Interest:
39 = McKissic
31 = Gibson
22 = Edwards
21 = Dobbins
14 = Ingram
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Chiefs 26, Patriots 10
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This is going to be every other or every third game the Chiefs play this season – all the opponent’s try to do is run the ball every play to run the clock to hope that their weaker team can stay close, keep Mahomes off the field, and try to get lucky and win in the end.
It has yet to work for any team this season…to get a win.
Oh, it looks like it’s working…the Chargers looked like they were going to blow out the Chiefs, until they lost in OT. The Patriots kept this game to no TDs for KC in the 1st-half. New England played the near-perfect 1st-half. Only a 6-3 lead for KC at the half.
But then the Chiefs stepped on the gas a little and took a bigger lead, which forced the Patriots’ offense to get out of their four-corners slow down and then the Chiefs’ ace defense kicked in and put the Patriots away.
Many reading this have huge ties to the Kansas City Chiefs for Fantasy, so you have to prepare yourself for every team trying the same plan…run-run-run-run. The clock ticks away. You get nervous at the FF totals for Mahomes-Tyreek-Kelce-CEH, but then the KC things usually find their way to FF-goodness and it’s alright. It’s going to be painful watching a lot of it happening when it is working for a half…like v. LAC, like v. NE. I thought BAL would be the only team capable of pulling it off, but they were the most incompetent against KC.
The Chiefs can flip a switch, and they know it, so they are fine meandering. It’s like a cat with a mouse…they entertain themselves with it scurrying around at first and then decide, at some point, to kill it. There might be some painful FF outcomes because the Chiefs meander, but not every game can be FF-gold.
The Patriots played this game about as well as they could have, and were staying close…but, come on, they were never really in this game. They were just trying to survive and get lucky. It might have been more interesting with Cam playing, but likely KC would have done the same thing.
New England gets a break with Denver Week 5, then a BYE, and then there is some trouble – v. SF, at BUF, at NYJ, v. BAL in Weeks 7-8-9-10. That could easily be a (1-3) stretch making the Pats (4-4) and maybe 2-3 games behind Buffalo. Week 8 at Buffalo is going to be the season for either the Pats or Bills. Either the Patriots are still the leaders of the AFC East…or the baton was grabbed away by Buffalo.
KC is (4-0) and begging the question…who is going to beat them? Week 6 at Buffalo is that spot, potentially. If not there, I don’t think they’ll lose a game unless they take off Week 17 as an extra BYE week. They have a very nice schedule after Week 6.
Fantasy Player Notes…
All the scouting/study of this game for me was on the Patriots’ side. KC does what KC does for their side, and facing Brian Hoyer isn’t a real litmus test – it was a one-time, emergency event. I have brief notes on KC, but the interesting play activity…a few debuts, of sorts, happened with New England.
-- Damien Harris (17-100-0) finally got a real chance to play, and he looked good…as I expected he would whenever he got the chance. He was one of the best backs of the 2019 NFL Draft, arguably as good, better than Alabama teammate Josh Jacobs.
Harris started the game and it was his first real ‘playing time’ (besides junk a slim few snaps last year), and it was against the defending champs on MNF, and he responded with 100 yards rushing. Nothing wrong with that.
He ran the ball tough up the middle (as they wanted for the game plan) all game but also showed some juice in the run game…a juice lacking with Sony or Rex or White.
Is Harris the starter now? Maybe. You know Belichick…Harris may start and get 25 carries Week 5…or he might not start, rotate in and see 4-8 touches.
Harris is not going to send James White (7-38-0/7) to the bench, so Harris is instantly limited in PPR like Michel always was.
Harris is not sending Rex Burkhead (11-45-0, 1-5-0/1) to the bench eternally, because Rex is a heart & soul experienced player. So, Harris loses some opportunity to Rex.
When Sony Michel returns…it will be a cluster.
When Cam returns, he’ll take all the TDs anyway.
I love Harris…hate him/his situation for fantasy 2020.
-- Jarrett Stidham (5-13 for 60 yards and 1 TD/3 INTs) came on in relief of Brian Hoyer and was OK/forgettable. He was trying to get his team back in it…so, he was taking chances and got picked a few times. It’s not a great backdrop to judge him on.
However, I will say this – he’s the past. Stidham is not a QB for the new millennium of football. The football world doesn’t need another Jimmy Garoppolo. It did in 2015, not in 2020. You’re wasting energy here with him for fantasy/dynasty long-term.
The Patriots will re-sign Cam before they turn it over to Stidham.
-- Gunner Olszewski (1-11-0/1) came off I.R. and played a few snaps. Don’t be surprised if he works his way into the rotation heavier as the season goes along.
As/if that happens, it will take some of the limited pie off the plates of Byrd-Harry.
Julian Edelman (3-35-0/6) is drying up in this offense, but this was a Hoyer-Stidham emergency event, so hard to say if he’s dying totally…or just had issues because of these QBs against a great defense. Four games in, Edelman has one great game…and three duds. It’s worry time, but with Cam Week 5 it could turn the tide.
-- I don’t like Sammy Watkins (4-43-0/7) but he is ‘something’, not nothing. He had a nothing game vs. LAC (and their great coverage) but has 6.0 rec., 63.3 yards, 0.33 TDs in his other three games.
The Chiefs WR playing similar snaps as Tyreek Hill, and on the same field with Mahomes…it won’t be terrible, and it’s sometimes great/fantastic.
Mecole Hardman (4-27-1/4) is scoring TDs lately, but still only plays about half or less of the snaps in games and splits time with Demarcus Robinson. He’s a boom-bust, and a weird Tyreek handcuff kinda-sorta.
-- What did I tell ya about this Chiefs-DST? Worth getting strong last week and two weeks ago, huh? Prepare for the gold with the Miami-DST pairing, and you do that this week…get MIA ahead of time for Week 6 vs. DEN (while KC is at BUF). Don’t get scooped on it next waivers.
Pairing the right DSTs together is 2020 FF reality, there is no ‘shutdown every week’ defense. You need to find the right mix and matches because DST scoring is so down in general…except the good Ds with the great schedules/opponents so far.
From my prior week’s KC-MIA musings (with slight updates for Week 5/past Week 4…
Dropped by many because of the Ravens matchup Week 3. After the Ravens game you get a long stretch against a mix of good and weak offenses. No powerhouse matchups until like Week 15…if you consider the Saints a powerhouse (at NO). Also, consider – the Chiefs have good-to-great defensive talent to go with (and an offense that supports them).
Weeks 4-5-6 with Cam-Carr-J.Allen is OK, but then it gets really good Weeks 7-14…
At DEN, NYJ, CAR, BYE, at LV, at TB, DEN, at MIA.
You know what pairing works great with KC…the Chiefs and the Dolphins…
Week 4 = KC v. NE (DONE/WINNER!!)
Week 5 = KC v. LV
Week 6 = MIA at DEN (KC at BUF)
Week 7 = KC at DEN
Week 8 = KC at NYJ
Week 9 = KC v. CAR
Week 10 = MIA v. NYJ (KC bye)
Week 11 = KC at LV
Week 12 = MIA at NYJ (KC at TB)
Week 13 = KC v. DEN
Week 14 = KC at MIA
*UPDATE INFO AHEAD NHERE* From Weeks 5-15 you get 10 weeks, and 3 matchups with DEN and 3 with the Jets…over half the matchups vs. DEN and NYJ. Miami doesn’t have a terrible defense either.
Snap Counts of Interest:
52 = Tyreek
46 = Watkins
26 = Mecole
23 = D. Robinson
73 = Byrd
57 = Harry
46 = Edelman
09 = Zuber
06 = Olszewski
40 = White
26 = Rex
23 = Harris
25 = Willie Gay, KC (Rookie LB started this game, but didn’t play but 33% of the snaps.)
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Packers 30, Falcons 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I’m guessing most of you were like me on Monday night…
I’m watching the KC-NE game intently…and I almost forgot there was GB-ATL starting at 9pmET. The KC-NE games was a good watch, plus we all/FFM generally have so much tied to KC…so, when KC-NE was kinda ‘done’ but still going, we were compelled to keep watching…and when we got interrupted during the KC-NE action by a highlight from GB-ATL letting us know Aaron Rodgers was doing his normal thing right away, we didn’t have any inclination to switch over to watch it.
By the time NE-KC ended, as I watched my KC-DST keep lavishing me with FF points to the bitter end, the GB-ATL game was ‘over’ but still had a half to go. I half-watched the non-Davante team beat the brakes off the non-Julio team, and I could barely muster any energy to watch it. I did get the battle I’d always been dreaming of – the Olamide Zaccheaus v. Robert Tonyan showdown. It wasn’t as exciting as I dreamt that Z v. Tonyan would be. We’ll get to those guys in a moment.
This game was over before it started. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dan Quinn got Bill O’Brien’d today. It was 20-3 GB at the half, and just meandered to the end from there. Aaron Rodgers was literally laughing and smirking the whole game after every completed pass because he couldn’t believe how easy it was. Rodgers’ non-stop camera close up of his face laughing on the field -- it should get Quinn fired today. If the opposing QB got hit ‘one time’ by your defense all game (yep, that’s all ATL had) and he’s laughing and having a grand old time…you should probably not be drawing a hefty paycheck for your work. You were supposed to be a defensive genius?
Atlanta will be Atlanta from here…they’ll win a few here and there but they’ll end up around 3-4 wins and a complete overhaul of the management team. We just gotta wait 13 more weeks on it probably. Another loss or two in a row and expect to see Todd Gurley get traded…he’s on a one-year deal and makes no sense for ATL to keep him the rest of the way. The problem is – who’s giving up anything for him? The Falcons will likely get a 4th-round compensation pick or better after he’s signed elsewhere, so what team is paying up for Gurley/2020?
Green Bay is so far out in front of the NFC North, they may clinch the division by Week 10. Showdown game for them at TB this week…we’ll see if this GB team is just a minor-fraud like 2019 – crushing the weak and then getting crushed by the strong, but it’s also a litmus test on whether TB is part of the ‘strong’ already. All I know is, two ‘older’ QBs will play a game and likely both throw for 400+ yards and 4+ TDs and 90%+ Comp. Pct. while the TV analysts tell us how much time studying the defensive coaches put into the game plan each week.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Last season, Aaron Rodgers (27-33 for 327 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) wasn’t a QB1 in fantasy. Barely ever threw for 300+ yards…rarely threw for 260+. Mostly 1-2 passing TDs in games. So far this season…13 TDs/0 INTs (3.3 TDs per game) and averaging 303.5 yards passing per game. Let me guess…Matt LaFleur’s playbook is really kicking in now? Yeah, right.
The NFL has turned into Arena League Football. We all thought 2020 would be a war of running games with a limited preseason, but we have a game with no penalties being called and holding is legal, and QBs have more pocket time and that’s allowing the top QBs to destroy opponents and rule Fantasy.
If you’re in 6pts per pass TD fantasy leagues (especially with bonuses) you either have Mahomes-Wilson-Allen-Dak-Rodgers or you don’t…and you’re in trouble.
The QBs trying to get into that group are Brady, Ben and Burrow.
Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, Cam, Kyler, Lamar, Watson…they can’t keep up on a regular basis in 6pts per pass TD. Some of them can if they run for 50+ and a TD. They can especially keep up with their running in 4pts per pass TD leagues. The non-running, generically good QBs are FF-death right now – Ryan, Stafford, Watson, Goff, Brees, etc.
You saw what Rodgers and Brady did Week 4/all season? They’re getting better as we go. They aren’t aging a bit. They have a license to throw in an era of throwing success.
Why do I point out all this semi-obvious info?
The one QB who fits the profile of talented, license to throw, and has amazing weapons – Ben Roethlisberger…and he’s kinda flying under the radar for multiple reasons (a COIVD postponement among them). If you need to get into the passer business and you can’t get to the top names without selling your soul…Big Ben might be the affordable salvation…the next QB to go off with ace WRs.
-- OK, let’s talk about the new names/stars of the week created from this game...Robert Tonyan (6-98-3/6) and Olamide Zaccheaus (8-86-0/9).
1) Robert Tonyan – Before this game kicked, a client asked if it would be an idea to drop KC-DST (because they’d already locked in their loss, sadly) and grab Tonyan as a flyer…asking with the simple, speculative words ‘in case he goes off tonight’.
Being a super-smart football person that I am, I admonished the thought because I love the KC-DST ahead, and because it was silly to think Robert Tonyan would do anything big enough to generate heat for trade value, etc. What a silly thought! How cute all you non-professional football minds are. Don’t waste my time with your daydreams.
I’ve probably had Robert Tonyan as an ‘outta nowhere’ Tight End watch list name about 10 times the last 38 weeks of football over the past three years…and was right like once, half-right…like he got a TD off his 1 catch/target in a game. I bellyached every 4-6 weeks for 2+ years about how Green Bay isn’t giving this guy a shot and how good he looks, and noting his background as a college WR turned NFL TE, so the receiving chops were there…and why it was so stupid to look at Jace Sternberger when Tonyan was better. All that bellyaching and reaching for 2+ seasons, and the night he goes off…I’m like ‘that’ll never happen’.
Thus, my 2020 Fantasy Football season in a nutshell.
Tonyan scored 3 TDs this week, so he is now the greatest TE in football and everyone is going to go nuts for him as TE salvation to fix Tyler Higbee (who scored 3 TDs just two weeks ago…but that was like a million years ago and doesn’t matter because it didn’t just happen…only what happened last week matters).
If you want to go all-in on Tonyan, be my guest. Obviously, based on my pre-game dismissal of him, I have no room to speak. But, let me offer this reality check…
a) I know what you’re thinking… Rodgers has to throw to someone with Lazard out. He can’t just throw to Adams!
Oh, really? Then why were you benching Lazard Week 1-2 and/or he was on many league’s waivers/unclaimed? When Adams is playing…no one seriously used/wanted Lazard, MVS, or anything else not named Davante Adams or Aaron Jones.
When Davante Adams is healthy/playing…he gets all the gold and Jones, and then everyone else is random.
b) Why are you not asking about Jamaal Williams (8-10-0, 8-95-0/8) as the hottest pickup of the week at RB? I mean, he had 8 catches in a game!!!
Williams got 8 targets, Tonyan got 6. Maybe Rodgers does have to throw to somebody else besides Davante Adams…I guess it’s Jamaal Williams? No one thinks that because it’s not sexy. Tonyan is a fresh name we’ve been talking/whining about for years and he had all those TDs!!!! I must own him!!!
c) I heard similar arguments for Drew Sample off his Week 2 game, ditto Mo Alie-Cox. You made impassioned pleas and cases for them. Now you want Tonyan to replace them.
I’m just saying…be careful. Adams is a late scratch and Williams and Tonyan go off on Atlanta and we’re making one of them a god and the other we’re saying ‘it was just game flow’. Lazard only went off because Adams was out. Otherwise, we were grinding away with him on the same theory…’Rodgers has to throw to someone else sometimes’!
The same fervor we had on Lazard before his weak Week 1 9and go relook at Adams’s numbers from that game) is the same fervor you’re convinced Tonyan is for real. Just be careful. The talent is there to be solid. Rodgers is great. Someone has to matter besides Adams.
But does it? History says, not as much. Just be careful watching the sugar plum fairies dance and getting made at your current boring TE who didn’t score 3 TDs this week on national TV.
2) Olamide Zaccheaus – I’ve been crying for more Zaccheaus going back to late last year. I didn’t understand why he wasn’t being pushed ahead of Russell Gage in training camp, just like I didn’t understand the Jace Sternberger affinity because Tonyan WAS RIGHT THERE! Both had their day this game. Good for them.
But will the teams follow through? Zaccheaus only got a shot because Julio went down in-game (sounds familiar…like Tonyan, Adams late scratch and Tonyan sudden star). When Adams and Julio are OK…will they keep up?
Doubtful on Zaccheaus. He should be cutting into Gage some, but that’s my own sugar plum fairy tale. I think it, therefore it will not happen. Like believing that Darrell Henderson will never not be the Rams lead RB, only a fool would go to Malcolm Brown.
I’d bet on Tonyan over Zaccheaus for FF going forward, but both deserve better…and showed why this game. Actually, Zaccheaus was better…he worked and made tough plays. Tonyan was ‘there’ and got 3 TDs…nothing special he did, per se.
-- Ok, switching over to two players who didn’t ascend with the non-Adams, non-Julio window open…
1) Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4-45-0/8)
I’ve said for years…MVS is a waste, but I went all-in on him here without Adams, because that’s the smart way to play it. MVS can’t even succeed in the best of circumstances. He sucks.
Reminder: Equanimeous St. Brown will be back Week 6 and he’ll be the new Allen Lazard-lite hope. ESB is better than MVS, always has been…and ESB will be a threat to the random GB non-Adams random targets upon his return.
2) Hayden Hurst (4-51-0/6)
OK, the Falcons main WR was down and the others weren’t looking so good…and this game was a mess, so why didn’t Hurst have 3 TDs? I’d at least like to see Hurst show SOMETHING in garbage time, but he was just ‘there’ as well. No real connection spotted between he and Ryan yet.
-- Speaking of players who don’t look great…Todd Gurley (16-57-2, 1-6-0/1). He’s such a waste of touches and payroll…a perfect Atlanta Falcon…and, of course, he’s set up for 2 short TD runs.
I can’t get David Johnson into the end zone, but Gurley is there every week.
If you think David Johnson is no good anymore, you should watch Gurley. DJ is fine…Gurley is all but ‘shot’. But still good enough to fall into the end zone a few times with his 3+ yards per carry games with little involvement in the passing game. It does sound like David Johnson, come to think of it.
I could see Gurley getting traded, but I’m not sure there is a sucker out there to take it. Anyone who looks at him sees he’s dying.
Brian Hill (4-10-0, 2-13-0/2) would be a winner if Gurley is moved out.
-- The GB-DST is #10 in FF scoring, but the DST scoring is so down that after the top names…it all doesn’t matter. Playing good defenses in good matchups is the way to go. Getting KC-DST and pairing with Miami may seem stupid…holding two DSTs and all, but in this era, you might get a 5-10+ point spread on your opponent if your DST is constantly facing the Jets and Broncos and theirs is not.
Ty Summers (7 tackles) is settling in at ILB for GB…8.0 tackles per game the last two weeks becoming the main ILB.
Za’Darius Smith had a game here – 8 tackles, 3.0 sacks, 4 TFLs, 5 QB hits. That’s a season for many DLs.
This isn’t a bad defense at all, and it’s getting better on the field but for FF it hasn’t been much. At TB, at HOU, MIN, at SF the next 4 weeks isn’t great either.
Snap Counts of Interest:
42 = Tonyan
14 = Sternberger
07 = Deguara
53 = Zaccheaus
47 = Gage
45 = Ridley
15 = Julio
38 = Gurley
16 = B Hill
16 = Ito
36 = Jam Williams
33 = A Jones
03 = AJ Dillon
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Bucs 38, Chargers 31
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I kinda forgot that LAC stormed out to a 24-7 lead in this game. Justin Herbert was putting on a clinic. Then, for some reason, deep in their own territory, right before the half, seconds to go…instead of taking a knee and getting out of there with the big halftime lead…they ran a shotgun, run option play…of course, a fumble occurred and TB was set up for a quick score before the half to close it to 24-14 LAC.
By the time the 3rd-quarter was ending…TB led 28-24.
But then Herbert planted a 72-yard TD right back to take the 31-28 lead going into the 4th-quarter.
The Bucs scored the final 10 points of the game, and Herbert threw a bad pick to end the game. Tampa Bay earned their way back in…but it was more LAC is so poorly coached that no lead is safe.
The Chargers should be (4-0)…instead, they are (1-3). Their season isn’t over yet. It may be if they fall to (1-4) at NO on MNF this week. Even if they fall to (1-4)…they can win their next three easier games to get to (4-4) and try and climb to (8-8/9-7) for a wild card. This could’ve been a 10+ win team, a threat to the Chiefs…if they had a different/better coach (unfortunately, they have the worst coach in the NFL) and started Herbert from snap #1…and didn’t lose Chris Harris to injury right now.
The Bucs are (3-1) but aren’t playing beautiful ball…they are scrapping their way to wins. It will serve them well as the season progresses…TB learning how to win ugly. If they win TNF this week, we still project them to win the NFC South with 10+ wins.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Justin Herbert (20-25 for 290 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 5-14-0) played one of the best games of quarterbacking I’ve ever seen in this game. Bruce Arians said after, that Herbert reminded him of Patrick Mahomes at times. I have to agree.
Honestly, redrafting the 2020 NFL Draft, with these 4 games of 2020 to judge by…I don’t know that it’s not Herbert who should be the #1 overall pick…and is going to go on to be the better FF QB than Joe Burrow, who is extremely gifted as well. Deciding today…I think Herbert will be better than Burrow for FF, big picture.
Miami better hope Tua doesn’t flop or this 2020 NFL Draft will go down in infamy.
Short-term, Tyrod/Anthony Lynn looms. He can’t possibly go to Tyrod…but he probably will. See: Darrell Henderson Week 4/LAR. If Lynn announces Tyrod as starter at any point…the GM should fire him one minute later.
Herbert threw TD passes to Tyron Johnson, Jalen Guyton, and Donald Parham in this game…and each throw was its own kind of amazing.
Justin Herbert is the more polished, less experienced, worst coached, mentally smarter version of what Josh Allen is doing right now.
Dynasty owners, like I said last week…try to make Herbert a part of your future at QB. Pay the price, as reasonably as possible.
-- Hebert’s receivers notes…
I had to go look up who Tyron Johnson (1-53-1/1) was…and I supposedly know everybody. Didn’t have a clue. Didn’t ring a bell.
6’1”/193, Oklahoma State (LSU transfer), 2019 UDFA, practice squad for LAC since 2019. Solid college performer, 4.36 40-time, 7.07 three-cone. Very good straight-line speed on tape, not overly athletic otherwise, good hands/instincts.
He’s one to watch as the LAC offense becomes an aerial attack…if Mike Williams is out for long. Jalen Guyton (1-72-1/1) is the WR starting with Williams out. Tyron is just a bit player right now but working his way up.
Donald Parham (1-19-1/1) is a legit 6’8”+ TE who I thought was a draftable TE out of Stetson in 2019. He went undrafted, then went and shined in the XFL, now he just caught his first NFL pass…an alley-oop in the end zone, because Justin Herbert is smart.
No chance for Parham to get FF-hot unless Hunter Henry (2-39-0/3) goes down…and even then, I’m not sure. Parham is just an end zone weapon for now.
Speaking of Hunter Henry…weak Week 4 stats (because every other drive was a long TD pass it seemed, plus a LAC pick-six), he has no TDs this year, good targeting otherwise…he’s just kinda flying below the radar. EXCELLENT buy low right now – you get a TE1 talent/history with one of the best QBs in the game. The risk, of course, is they go back to Tyrod…
For all the same reasons above, buy Keenan Allen (8-62-0-/12). I know…he’s not cheap and I’ve dissed him in the past…but now he’s with the god Herbert, everything has changed. He’s going to be a WR1…trading like a WR1.5-2.0 more than 1.0-1.5. If you can catch someone with their defenses down…
I am all the way-the-hell in on everything good related to the LAC passing game and knowing there might be a game where they try to force Tyrod in…but it wouldn’t last long. Not even a half potentially.
-- Josh Kelley (9-7-0, 3-26-0/3) is the big RB name of the week off the Austin Ekeler injury, and I love him too…but you realize he’s run the ball 40 times for 116 yards the past three games? 2.9 yards per carry.
He’s a rookie and he’s behind a terrible/broken down/injured O-Line (which is why what Herbert is doing is stellar). Kelley may not be the salvation you think he is.
…and Justin Jackson (6-9-0, 2-12-0/2) is going to get a chance to split and or lead this backfield if Kelley stumbles. JJax would then face the same O-Line issues but it’s another reason not to get too far out there on Kelley. I’d sell him hot if the potential exists.
-- Leonard Fournette out and Ronald Jones (20-111-0, 6-17-0/9) becomes an RB1…just like I planned, if one or the other went down.
Jones had a sweet FF game, but missed a TD catch because Brady had a ball tipped on a throw at the goal line. Jones also dropped two passes he should’ve caught. This was almost an epic FF effort.
The dropped passes and LeSean McCoy injury opened the door for Ke’Shawn Vaughn (3-4-0, 2-22-1/3) to play in passing downs and get his first NFL action. KV looked a little intimidated and slow, but that’s to be expected. Just noting…it wasn’t a ‘wow’ performance/threat to RoJo. I’m not a big Vaughn guy regardless.
I believe TB is going to move forward with a plan of RoJo in his normal lead role and Fournette as akinda 3rd-down back, like a gamma-radiated James White, plus 7-10 interior carries…and it could happen soon/Week 6.
-- Like I said last week…Brady’s best connection is Scotty Miller (5-83-1/7). It’s his go-to/fave. Mike Evans (7-122-1/8) is always great, but there’s something to Brady-to-Miller. It hurts Chris Godwin upon his return, for FF, a little bit.
-- O.J. Howard is done for the year, so Cameron Brate (1-3-1/1) has to step up. Please realize…Bruce Arians’ offense hates TEs, but the exception of Brady can do what he wants with Gronk (1-29-0/3).
Brate for FF will be a houseplant getting little sunlight or water.
-- The LAC-DST doesn’t look good this week at NO on MNF, but it’s what is ahead you want: NYJ-MIA-JAX-LV-BYE-DEN. And, when Chris Harris returns it gets even better.
-- The TB-DST is still strong, just LAC (this game) is now a ‘bad matchup’ because of Herbert. TB has a choppy schedule ahead, Week 5 at CHI is nice. Week 6 v GB is not. Nor is Week 7 at LV great…but then at NYG Week 8 is nice. But then Week 9 v. NO is not. Nor at CAR-LAR-KC-BYE Weeks 10-13.
The TB-DST is going to run out of steam soon (due to schedule), be prepared to add the right streamer…or pray. TEN-DST is a sneaky pairing together to help where TB is weak, but you might just grab as you go, sitting on TB on the bench in bad matchups.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Watson
54 = Evans
40 = Miller
25 = Ty Johnson
49 = RoJo
19 = Ke’Shawn
50 = Keenan A
45 = Guyton
25 = Jason Moore
08 = Tyron Johnson
02 = KJ Hill
30 = J Kelley
21 = JJax
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Colts 19, Bears 11
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was one of the worst games I’ve watched in 2020 to-date. It wasn’t a slog because the defenses are so good, although the defenses are good…especially the Colts. It was 33% ‘good defense’ and 67% ‘horrific offense’.
Two glaring problems here…
1) Philip Rivers is ‘shot’…he’s got no gas left in the tank on his arm. I mean, he can still push a 0-8 yards pass out there if it’s wide-open but he’s throwing so slow/low velocity and his mechanics are so slow that defenders are breaking on the ball or he’s just misfiring/miss-timing the routes being run. He has to throw way in anticipation of where the WRs will be and that’s dangerous because he is lacking ‘touch’ with the velocity…and these receivers are not long-time connections he’s used to.
All of Rivers’ passes it seems wobble/no tight spiral. There’s a reason why he has 15 TDs/16 INTs his last 11 games played. Tom Brady is working through this ‘age thing’ and looks solid enough. Rivers looks like toast. Thus, this offense is D.O.A. for the R.O.S.
2) Chicago looked just as pathetic on offense as ever. The beautiful thing about that is – now, finally, people are making the equivocation that if the offense looks the same/as bad with Trubisky, Foles, or Chase Daniel…then maybe the problem isn’t the QB. The problem is what the problem has been all along – Matt Nagy, aided by a GM who has had the worst NFL Drafts and free agency the past two years.
It’s all about to implode in Chicago…they’re thinking playoffs, when really they are all dead and don’t even know it.
Chicago stops playing cupcakes and starts playing mostly real teams ahead and they are going to lose a lot of games coming up. The Bears are a 5-6 win team at best.
The Colts have a very good defense, one of the best in the league and a decent O-Line. They are going to try and play 1930s style football to win games. They are helped by a gift schedule the next three games: CLE-CIN-DET, but none of them are as easy as it seems. We are projecting this Colts team at (8-8) and will reassess if they change from Rivers to Jacoby Brissett (not likely).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- There’s a fantasy ripple effect of the Philp Rivers (16-29 for 160 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) downfall…
T.Y. Hilton (3-29-0/5) is all but dead. Trade him for whatever you can get. He might have a moment ahead of a lot of dump passes but for all intents and purposes…this can’t work consistently/high-end. Hilton works medium and deep and Rivers can only throw short. Get out while/if you can. He still has some bottom fishing name appeal to throw into a deal for some in rare occasion.
Jonathan Taylor (17-68-0, 1-11-0/1) looks great but is facing stacked lines because defenses see the Rivers issue. You kinda have to ride Taylor hoping you get a Derrick Henry/2019 run of ‘you know it’s coming but you can’t stop anyway’ offense. He also might tick up for receptions because Rivers has to throw to RBs to stay safe.
For some reason, Trey Burton (2-16-0/5) got activated of IR and debuted and was pushed as a receiver they tried to get going. Burton looks like all the life in his legs are gone, so he was never open…and Rivers couldn’t hit a medium route in a tight window to save his life.
The Burton love from Frank Reich means, as I predicted, Mo Alie-Cox (1-13-1/2) is not ‘next Antonio Gates’…but he is the Colts TE to have in non-PPR because he’s tall and Rivers can throw balloons to him and pray. I wouldn’t be surprised if Alie-Cox had 15 catches the rest of the season and 8 of them TDs.
-- Watching Philip Rivers in this game made Nick Foles (26-42 fore 249 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) look like Patrick Mahomes by comparison. Still, Foles is just a slightly better version of Rivers…it’s not their era, they belong in an era gone by, and their arms are fading so they are not able to do what they used to…but they still think they can.
I’ll give Foles the grace of another week…because this may be as much about the Colts defense and the lack of a Bears running game than anything else.
-- Of course, Foles wore out Allen Robinson (7-101-1/10) but his next favorite throw was Darnell Mooney (5-52-0/9). Mooney is trying to creep back into the WR3 conversation. The more attention on ARob allows Mooney to be a slick slot/alternative/Diontae-lite happening. Again, it’s a lot to ask of a rookie and this passing game is spotty at best…so be careful, but in Dynasty…Mooney may be getting ready to make a spurt where he’s not cheap to acquire anymore.
-- You thought Jimmy Graham (4-33-0/5) was going to be so awesome after his two TDs Week 3 and the switch to Foles? How many times will you see a spotty TE have a multi-TD game, which gaslights you and you pile in, and then there’s no follow up because it was a one-time event/matchup/game plan?
We’ve seen big weeks from Higbee and Alie-Cox and Graham and Sample…and not followed up on. Our eyes turn to Robert Tonyan and Eric Ebron for the next in line…
-- If Darius Leonard (1 tackle) has to miss any time, Anthony Walker (11 tackles) would be a great start in his place for IDP.
-- The Colts-DST is still #1 with a bullet for FF scoring (FPros scoring). That should hop up with CLE-CIN-BYE-DET the next four weeks, but problems loom after that Weeks 9-11: BAL-TEN-GB. The Colts-D may be good enough to soldier through it.
-- The Bears-DST needs to carry their team too, and they have a solid unit…but TB-CAR-LAR-NO-TEN-MIN-BYE-GB through Week 12…not great any week for FF.
-- Because of the Colts’ failings on offense, but great defense…we’re getting a lot of Colts with the ball but cannot score TDs – so, rookie PK Ricardo Blankenship (4/4 FGs, 1/1 XP) is tearing it up for fantasy. He’s 12/14 on FGs this season, kicking in a dome a lot, and on a failing offense/good defense = it’s a good recipe to continue working with for FF.
He’s the #2 PK in FF per game scoring right now.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = ARob
46 = Mooney
43 = Miller
11 = CPatt
10 = Wims
07 = Ginn
45 = Doyle
36 = Burton
33 = Alie-Cox
33 = Taylor
25 = Hines
12 = Wilkins
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Browns 49, Cowboys 38
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Another week, another Cowboys stumbling, bumbling and fumbling away a game…and getting down a major amount (down 41-14 going into the 4th-quarter) then making a ferocious comeback but falling short in the end. I don’t know why this keeps happening to the Cowboys, but it does…and the theories are all over – the defense, the coaching in general, the O-Line injuries, Zeke fumbling…a combination of all of it.
I don’t know how it will change. This is who the Cowboys are. They keep losing O-Linemen. They have no defensive cohesion. They have terrible coaches (Jerry’s fault, per usual). I’d just assume every week is going to be like this most of the rest of the season – and if it is…it’s going to be surreal for fantasy things related. We’ll get into that in a moment.
I didn’t think Cleveland was all that great here…you could say it was more Dallas was bad/stumbling and the Browns had a couple trick plays that clicked and so they beat a really bad Dallas team. If the Browns were something special, Dallas wouldn’t have stormed back into the game at will. After Dallas’s similar Week 2 game with Atlanta, people assigned a ‘not so bad’ label to the Falcons for a moment too.
Dallas is (1-3) and who knows where the season is going. They’re in 1st-place. They play in a division with three teams that are worse than they are. Somebody has to win the NFC East…it should be Dallas, but I have a funny feeling it won’t. They might get-got by the Giants this week and all hell break loose in Dallas.
The Browns are a ‘bad’ (3-1) team. I’m not buying any renaissance or great/new coaching. They luckily beat Cincy, came from behind to beat Washington, and then had this gift they almost threw away. They will likely lose to IND and at PIT the next two weeks and start reeling towards (8-8/7-9) from there.
The hope with Cleveland is – you woke them up. They are now playing with confidence and a bounce in their step, especially OBJ. It’s nothing two bad losses ahead won’t cure…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Alright, we gotta start with the Browns RB situation…
Nick Chubb is done for about 6 weeks or so.
As soon as Chubb went down, D’Ernest Johnson (13-95-0) entered the game and made a real nice run…and then another…and then another…and suddenly it went from cute to – is D’Ernest Johnson the best RB on the Browns roster?
Who is D’Ernest Johnson?
For a scouting visual = If I took D’Ernest and put him in a #41 Saints’ jersey with the name ‘Kamara’ on the back…you wouldn’t be able to tell the difference that I made the human switch. He has a similar playstyle and athleticism/talent.
He played college ball at South Florida, where he was stuck behind Marlon Mack most of his career. He was an all-purpose back his entire career…16 rushing TDs, 12 receiving TDs, 1 punt return TD, threw for 2 TDs on three career passes.
I saw him working in the 2019 preseason and thought he looked/worked like a version of Alvin Kamara and was talented and showing it all preseason…but I knew he was buried in Cleveland, so no big deal for fantasy.
Chubb went down and Johnson came in to take touches and was fantastic here. I think they planned to rotate Johnson and Dontrell Hilliard (5-19-0, 1-2-0/1) some, but Johnson was so good they just stuck with him.
Here’s the thing…Kareem Hunt (11-71-2, 0-0-0/0) took his last carry with three minutes left in the 3rd-quarter. Johnson took it the rest of the way (7 carries from that point/last 18 minutes to the end)…even as things went from blowout to tight, it was Johnson not Hunt. Showing that there is trust in Johnson…or they had to because Hunt is banged up.
When OBJ came in to run that end around miracle late in the 4th-quarter…Hunt was in the backfield that play. Other than that, it was Johnson all 4th-quarter with some Hilliard (2 carries in the last 18 minutes of the game).
What happens Week 5?
I’d guess this will be a 60/40 split with Hunt…maybe 65/35. Johnson is no joke. Johnson could work well enough to be 50/50, to let Hunt heal more from his injury/not get worn-out. I’m excited by this, but nervous that they have at IND, at PIT the next two weeks. Also, nervous because I know how UDFAs get treated 99% of the time…not well, no matter how good they do.
I’m buying it more than I’m selling it. Buying a 60/40 Hunt/DJ split happening until Chubb returns.
-- OK, I was wrong about Dalton Schultz (4-72-1/8). I thought he was a junk/typical, stiff backup TE getting some action just because he was there in the wild comeback passing efforts…and there is a strong dash of that mixed into the stew here for sure. But watching Dak go to him often here, forcing passes to him – it wasn’t a ‘moment’, like what we might have seen with Robert Tonyan on MNF…Schultz looks like a decent connection with Dak (single tear rolls down for what might have been with Blake Jarwin…).
I dismissed Schultz after Jarwin went down, but he kept producing…well, watching him here – it’s working. Mix a ‘C’ grade TE with a team throwing two games worth of passes in a single game, and good things can happen for the TE for fantasy.
I wouldn’t bet my life on it, but I’m OK trying to ride the momentum here…more than I would Tonyan, Sample, Ebron, J Graham, etc.
Here’s the thing for those of us that missed him… Dallas faces the Giants this week. NYG has been really good against the TE. They can cover TEs well. It might be a down game/dose of reality for Schultz. You might assess after Week 5 and chase (if you wanted, not a must) at much lower prices going into Week 6.
NYG covering the TE is ranked…
#10 best in TE yards allowed.
#9T best in receptions to TE allowed.
#1 tied with 7 other teams allowing no TDs to opposing TEs this season.
-- Speaking of TEs…CLE rookie Harrison Bryant (4-37-0/4) isn’t playing terrible football. In fact, I’d say I might rather have Bryant than Austin Hooper (5-34-1/7) in the days ahead.
I’m pretty sure I’m not excited by Hooper, but he’s the expensive starter…so Bryant would be speculative.
Hooper is playing 80%+ of the snaps and is a traditional TE, slower and stiffer…but good/established.
Bryant has more juice, more bounce in his step…and he’s playing 60%+ of the snaps as a TE/FB who provides some spark in the passing game. He had a TD in Week 3…had a nice game here. He’s ascending but has Hooper in his way/putting a ceiling over him.
If Hooper goes down for any reason…
-- Because Dallas is playing/providing two games worth of stats in a single game each week…Dalton Schultz works and the Cowboys are rolling five working WRs.
Amari Cooper is obviously the #1 for Dak.
CeeDee Lamb (5-79-2/7) is the #2 look, just ahead of Schultz.
Cedrick Wilson (3-34-0/6) looked great Week 3 and was solid here…6 targets.
Noah Brown (4-43-0/4) also looks really good. I’ve always liked Brown. He might even be a listed TE in some leagues, maybe? He used to be one. Two weeks in a row of solid tape for Brown.
Michael Gallup (2-29-0/5) is suddenly the deep ball decoy guy. Dak just threw for 500+ yards in a game and Gallup was 7th best in receiving yards for Dallas this game…just edged out Blake Bell for that honor. Four games in 2020 for Gallup, on an offense stacking numbers, and he had a big 2nd-half Week 3 for fantasy…and been FF-useless otherwise the other 3.5 games.
-- If I told you two years ago, that in Week 4 of the 2020 season…the Browns would beat the Cowboys 49-39, you would have though Baker Mayfield (19-30 for 165 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) must have had 300+ yards passing and 3-4 TD passes easy…maybe 400+ yards and 5+ TDs?
How about 165 yards passing and 2 TDs…among these 49 points scored?
I’m all the way the hell done with Baker in this offense.
Because Baker beat Dallas with 49 points, and is now (3-1), I’m seeing articles all over about the maturing of Baker, the improvement of Baker – go sell that off in Dynasty.
-- Odell Beckham (5-81-2/8, 2-73-1) woke up with a big game…lucky/unlucky if you had him/faced him.
The thing is…OBJ’s long TD catch was a Jarvis Landry WR pass that was so perfectly thrown they couldn’t duplicate it if they ran it 1,000 more times. Minus that catch, OBJ with Baker…in a 49 point explosion…4 catches for 44 yards and a short TD.
You gotta sell this for all it is worth.
-- So, Dallas is getting destroyed by the run game…the Browns only ran for 307 yards and 3 TDs with 7.3 yards per carry here. Dallas is also bottom 10 in defending the tight end.
At what point will I get credit for being the only football person who told ‘them’ that Linebacker Jaylon Smith (7 tackles) is not great…not even good…but that he sucks and he’s killing them? And has been for years, but Jerry knows more than me and gave him a six year/$68M with $35M guaranteed deal a few years ago.
Don’t blame Zeke, McCarthy, Nolan, the footballs, the schedule…the blame goes where it always does: Jerrah Jones.
Snap Counts of Interest:
67 = Gallup
63 = Amari
62 = CeeDee
22 = N Brown
18 = C Wilson
63 = Hooper
53 = H Bryant
16 = St Carlson
58 = OBJ
57 = Landry
33 = Peoples-Jones
26 = Hunt
17 = D Johnson
15 = Hilliard
14 = Chubb
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Panthers 31, Cardinals 21
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Well, well, well… Arizona not looking so hot anymore, no? Hard to say which way this is breaking…breaking bad or breaking OK/good -- four games played, 2 wins, 2 losses, looked good for a game (Week 1)…looking worse as we go (Weeks 3-4). Where are they headed? Well, my sense is – the Kliff Kingsbury (negative) effect is settling in.
This Arizona team is looking progressively worse every week. This offense is as limited and un-fun to watch as it was last year. Same tired routes. Same missed deep balls. Every so often there’s a moment where Kyler can sit in the pocket for a breath and throw a laser strike, and it sucks you back in…but mostly this is a dink and dunk offense heading nowhere fast – it goes as far as Kyler’s running and Hopkins YAC will take them…and that’s not all that far in today’s NFL.
The defense was looking stout for about two games, and now it has lost the best defender/Budda Baker for some time and it is fading. There’s little ‘real’ run game (outside of Kyler), the defense is leaking, the offense is boring, the O-Line is degenerating – it’s a battle to (8-8) now.
This wasn’t even a game – Carolina jumped out to a 14-0 and 28-7 lead before giving up some junk to a merciful end. This game was never in doubt. Matt Rhule has his undermanned, young team on the rise…Kingsbury has his unit in decline. The story of these two teams of the next few years will be – Kingsbury fired and a total chaotic mess ensues in Arizona in 2021 or 2022 while Rhule goes on to rule the NFC South for years to come and becomes one of the best head coaches in football.
This game may have marked the intersection where Rhule already jumps past Kingsbury on his ladder climb to becoming one of the top young coaches, if not THEE top young coach in the game. It’s a Week 4 win for Rhule and foreshadowing of where these two teams are headed.
Arizona gets a HUGE break with a game with the Jets next week…the bleeding might stop there, and then there’s trouble ahead with the schedule. We are projecting them (8-8) with a (7-9) bias right now. Gone is the 10+ win hope/excitement after Weeks 1-2. If they lose to the Jets Week 5…all hell will break loose in Arizona.
Carolina has a chance to be (3-3) after Week 6, before the schedule comes after them. A 7-8 win season is not out of reach for them, but 6.5 wins this year would be my marker right now.
After two weeks, we all thought Arizona was going to the playoffs and maybe winning the division…and Carolina is rebuilding effort, just lost CMC, and will be lucky to win 2-3 games.
My how things change in two weeks… (keep that in mind if you’re scuffling in fantasy right now)
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- As always, we begin with ‘The Kyler Murray (24-31 for 133 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 6-78-0) Report’.
Another flimsy passing effort from Kyler…in output. He looks fine enough as a passer, but this offense, this route tree is the worst. The scheme and weak O-Line is forcing Kyler into a 200-250 or less yards per game passer in an era where 300+ yards is normal, even for rookies debuting who didn’t know even know they were starting until 15 minutes before the game have 300+ yards passing as like the minimum expectation. But not for Kyler in year two of this ‘amazing, innovative offense’.
Kyler’s TD rate has gone up…so he’s progressing there. No more always-stalled drives near the goal line like 2019. Kyler’s running output is way up…and that’s keeping his FF numbers propped up, which is good for us. He’s a nice fantasy QB, but so-so NFL QB right now…because of the offense he’s playing in.
One thing about his running…on Kyler’s big run of the game, a 40+ yarder, he broke away from the 2nd-level and was off to the races. I thought a 70+ yard TD run was about to land for our FF teams. Instead, he was caught from behind by Donte Jackson (a 4.3+ runner, so it made sense) but also 235-pound linebacker/D-End Marquis Haynes (2 tackles) came from 5+ yards deficit and caught Kyler too. Anyone who tries to tell me Kyler is a 4.3 or low 4.4 runner…go watch his big run in this game. He’s not…not with pads on.
My big fear is, with Kyler, that we’re moving closer into a Kliff Kingsbury on the hot seat situation…and when Kingsbury goes…we’re all screwed with Kyler for FF potentially. I think he can only run this specific (crap) offense and would be constricted and flustered in a real/typical NFL offense. Just a hunch. And Kyler is a baby…he’ll pout at the drop of a hat. If they dump Kliff…Kyler might want to be traded or go to baseball. I don’t know where he thinks he could be traded to that works?
Arizona has a massive problem on its hands if this season starts getting away because they are fully leveraged into Kliff + Kyler…held hostage, really. I think the duo get to the end of the 2021 season before Arizona gives up on Kliff. A bad 2020 probably means the GM is getting the axe…and then the replacement GM has to deal with Kliff. Not going to be easy/fun if Arizona doesn’t start winning, like right now.
I maintain the following: I love Kyler, but in Dynasty…I’ll make a deal and sell high. Not sell at any cost, sell high. He’s going to be productive for FF no matter what, I think…until Kliff gets in trouble/is gone. Then it will be a mystery.
The good news ahead is...
Here’s Kyler’s upcoming schedule of pass defenses to face by passing yards allowed ranking the six games…
#17/NYJ
#23/DAL
#32/SEA
BYE
#29/MIA
#28/BUF
#32/SEA
-- Kenyan Drake (13-35-0) was cleared of any injury issue, so there will not be a ton of speculation about his Week 5 status…which sends me back to my Monday 3 things/5 players report/thinking on Chase Edmonds maybe making a push to grab this lead role.
Drake is averaging 3.8 yards per carry with no 100+ yards games, 1 TD, and 1.25 catches per game. He’s an RB3 this year so far.
With the losses…I’m sure Kingsbury’s patience is running thin, and Kliff changes his mood on players on a dime. Edmonds may start going from a 70/30 split to a 60/40 to a 50/50 soon. Edmonds is the better back to me as it is, so if you’re in a position to make the investment…consider Edmonds, especially as useful/has a pulse regardless for BYE weeks ahead, etc.
-- Reggie Bonnafon (10-53-0, 2-18-1/2) got some nice work here and looked good+ as usual. If Carolina puts him back on the practice squad this week and no one picks him up/poaches him off in the NFL – then I don’t even know why I waste time watching/studying football because the NFL doesn’t study anything.
I mean the Jets pounce on Ty Johnson when DET cuts him, but lets Carolina just move Bonnafon up and down off the practice squad weekly with no diving in? That’s why they’re the Jets. But any team could claim this guy and he’d be better than most of their RB depth chart day one. I guess the Giants are too chocked full with RB talent to make room…
As soon as CMC returns, Bonnafon will be back to a bench player. But probably not going to practice squad anymore because someone has had to notice this in the past two weeks (they should’ve the last two months!).
-- Not only is Robby Anderson (8-99-0/11) the #1 WR for Teddy but note that he just missed on two more catches for 50+ yards on overthrows by Teddy. Robby is becoming the star. Most people thought D.J. Moore (4-49-0/6). I thought Curtis Samuel (3-51-0/4) might work the slot more (and Robby strictly outside) + take more jet sweeps and be a guy to have – but Robby was the right answer. Anderson is working the slot type role a bunch now…because he’s Teddy’s guy.
I don’t know if Teddy Bridgewater (26-37 for 276 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) needs more time to get in sync but he is misfiring pass all over, but still landing enough. He’s getting a bit less erratic every week. He’s also starting to get into a useful FF QB discussion. He has games with ATL two of the next 4 weeks, but tough matchups otherwise.
-- What does Andy Isabella (2-3-0/3) get after his bit two-TD week last week? Three targets for two catches and 3 yards. What a breakout star!!! Kyler really knows how to use his weapons.
To be fair. Kyler hit him on the button for a 50+ yard play in the bag but Isabella tripped over his own shoelaces and face planted just as the ball was coming in to his full-sprinting arms.
Christian Kirk (3-19-1/5) being active hurt any hopes of more Isabella snaps/targets.
Neither Kirk or Isabella can be relied upon beyond a hail mary hope it’s the game they catch the one golden bomb shot Kyler gives them per game.
-- You can use the Arizona-DST if needed this week…facing the Jets. But then it is over…
The schedule the next six weeks is lethal, mostly…
Week 6 = at Dak
Week 7 = R Wilson
Week 8 = BYE
Week 9 = Miami
Week 10 = J Allen
Week 11 = R Wilson
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Mk Davis
21 = Bonnafon
54 = Hopkins
53 = Fitzgerald
36 = Kirk
24 = Isabella
37 = Drake
21 = Edmonds
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Rams 17, Giants 9
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
And so, now, I set out to report on my own FF-demise…
Re-watching this game, taking the notes, starting to write the report…it’s akin to be a youth in the early 1900s and being told to go out and get a ‘switch’ off a tree to bring to my dad so he can spank my a$$ with it. Picking your own torture device…is triple the torture.
Here, I got to watch Malcolm Brown in all his glory…again.
As Darrell Henderson looked great and led the way on the very first (long) drive/series for an early 7-3 Rams lead – I then watched the all-Malcolm Brown show after that first/opening drive for the Rams…and watched as the Rams offense instantly stalled the rest of the game…not scoring a TD for the next 45 minutes of the game.
At first, I just thought Brown was in for some relief…that’s aggravating, but fine. Then he stayed in…and stayed in, and got touches, and targets… Was Henderson hurt, I wondered? Must not be, because he’d come back in for a few snaps and then disappear for long stretches again. Once I realized what was happening…I couldn’t believe it. As I watched this live, it took a few series of play before reality set in of what was happening. I’d been duped by Sean McVay…again. It was like in this alternative ending to The Usual Suspects movie: https://youtu.be/K7ENqzHwaQ4
If I don't try to make light of the situation, I might be driven into madness.
To make matters worse – I think I really like what the New York Giants are doing. It could just be the paranoid delusions settling in…the PTSD impact from re-watching the Henderson hit to heart/FF teams. Well, we’ll address that next segment.
As for the game, the Rams tried to sleepwalk through this with Malcolm Brown and were not the better team. At least, the Rams were not the more energetic passionate team – that honor goes to the Giants. If the Giants had any semblance of an O-Line/blocking…they would have won this game by 2+ scores…and not in a ‘fluky’ way. I mean – the Giants are getting tough/gritty and the Rams are finesse S-A-W-F-T…and that’s why the Bills blew them out right away last week, and when the Rams snuck back in/ahead due to a lot of luck…the Bills then imposed their will and re-captured the lead/the win.
I’m telling you the Rams are not going anywhere…they may make the playoffs, but they are no threat to anything. They are S-A-W-F-T like their head coach…smart, sound, slick and S-A-W-F-T. Henderson gave them some backbone, but apparently that’s a foreign concept to them and the rejected it. California cool…which will get them nowhere in the playoffs. 2018’s Super Bowl run was a blip…like the Falcons and Eagles before them. No sustainability.
When the Rams play physical, mentally tough teams that are ‘good’ – they are going to get whacked. The next four weeks for the Rams: at Washington, at San Francisco, Chicago and at Miami…that could be a rougher stretch than expected with physical, grinder teams. The Rams have three wins this season…all over NFC East powerhouses. This Rams team is overrated. If The Football Team has Chase Young back this week…consider a light bet on them +9.0.
I really like the moxie this Giants team is playing with, and because of my Darrell Henderson (and Tyler Higbee) pain, I watched this intently live and then in the re-watch, so it kinda started catching my eye even more than my hints about the past few weeks – this isn’t a bad Giants team.
It’s not a good Giants team, but it’s not bad. And I rag on GM Dave Gettleman…but looking at what he did in the off-season with his defense rebuilding through free agency – he gets an ‘A’ for that effort. This defense is totally rebuilt, retooled, repowered and one of the better defenses in the NFL. We’ll get to the details on that in the next section.
The G-Men play their three NFC East foes in a row the next three weeks…if they can go (2-1), and I think they might, they could be (2-5) and tied for first place. Hop on the +9.0 train with NYG over Dallas.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- OK, what do we do with Darrell Henderson (8-22-0, 1-16-0/1) now?
I haven’t a clue.
Sunday afternoon/after the game, after drinking all this specific game result (for FF) in – I honestly questioned whether I wanted to continue on in this business. That’s how devastating it was.
Not that I was pouting that I had lost some FF games with Henderson in the lineup and a Mike Davis or Joe Mixon on the bench…I lose FF games all the time on bad sit-start choices. It comes with the territory. I can handle losing an FF game. No, this is more – I cannot even fathom how Sean McVay did what he did.
Why bother scouting football anymore when the head coach does things counter-intuitive to the talent they are presented with? How can I compete with that?
Anyone with two eyes and some sense of football could see how special Darrell Henderson was working. Hell, even the PFF people graded DH as the #1 RB in the NFL so far for the 2020 season…however it is that they grade things. Henderson’s performance had not been lost on football people or fans. And it’s not like Malcolm Brown was ‘special’ or has ever been ‘special’. Mike Davis can be as good as he wants…but his arse is going back to no touches on the bench when Christian McCaffrey is cleared. No one ever mistook Malcolm Brown for ‘good’. He’s probably never even been the #1 graded RB in the league according to PFF either…so there.
Had Brown come in and was a successful ‘hot hand’ and the offense took off…then I’d have little ground to stand on. I can assure you it wasn’t that Brown was doing anything great…the offense instantly died upon Brown’s takeover. 45 minutes of play between TDs (from the time Henderson was usurped)…and the last TD was a lucky blown coverage, easy TD…because the vaunted Rams’ offense scuffled outside of that.
What Sean McVay is thinking…I have no idea.
This is the same Sean McVay who iced Henderson all last year in favor of failing Todd Gurley. This is the same Sean McVay who drafted Cam Akers…already possessing Darrell Henderson. McVay knows very well who Darrell Henderson is and what he’s capable of…and he’s been trying to hide it from everyone for two years now. Only injury to the two ‘starters’ FORCED McVay to have to use Henderson Week 2 in the 2nd-half, and a star was born.
…a star was born for all of us…but not Sean McVay. His shame, his secret was exposed – and that’s not going to be allowed to stand. You cannot find out he’s NOT a genius.
When Henderson was named starter Week 3, I thought…OK, McVay isn’t that dumb. He gets it. How could he not? And in Week 3, Henderson became a full-fledged star. So, of course it was game-on for Week 4…right?
Looking back at it for research, I stumbled over something I didn’t see last week on the interweb – when asked early in the week if Henderson was starting Week 4 (vs. NYG), McVay said, “Yeah, I think so.” Here’s the full quote/section from ESPN…
Rams coach Sean McVay said Monday, “I think so,” when asked if RB Darrell Henderson will start Sunday vs. the Giants based on his performance the last two games. “He’s doing things that, not surprised, but very pleased. He’s a guy that I’ve always had a tremendous amount of confidence in,” McVay said, adding, “The more that he plays and the more he’s available, the better he’s going to get.”
Not exactly a gushing endorsement. And if we would have thought that McVay was just downplaying Henderson, we wouldn’t have believed McVay’s shoulder shrug/nonsense statement about Henderson. Week 4’s touches told us what McVay thinks. Look at McVay’s last line: “The more that he plays and the more he’s available, the better he’s going to get.”
You sir, Sean McVay, are filled with Bull $%#&.
Now what do we do?
I think we have to take McVay at his word/actions – everything he’s been about has been pro-Akers, pro-Brown, and anti-Henderson. *See also: Mike Tomlin when Jaylen Samuels was forced in as a rookie and wrecked things…and was immediately forced back down in his hole as soon as James Conner was limping back.
I wanted to believe McVay couldn’t be this dumb, when it came to what he was forced to see with Henderson -- but apparently, he’s just a nerdy version of Anthony Lynn. They are going to do things the way they want to even if it results in losses, because no one is smarter than them…not even reality or real outcomes. McVay has his little playbook of clever misdirection plays he draws up in his spare time for fun and he’s going to out-playbook opponents with his special plays because he’s a delicate genius.
I wish I didn’t defend NOT FF-trading Henderson hot last week…several of you asked/had the vibe, but I was going to be a hero with my guy I stuck by so I couldn’t part ways with my beloved. I fell for the oldest trick in the book – falling in love beyond reason with the new, hot thing toy…and now we’re all stuck with a guy we thought was an RB1 about 100 hours ago…and now we can’t really start him Week 5, but can’t cut him either…and can’t trade for anywhere near the value of last week either.
Freaking Sean McVay. https://youtu.be/FBgFHVELjGk
The Jaylen Samuels 2018 story is a cautionary tale here…and should be the subject of a 30-for-30 documentary. A tale of how blind NFL head coaches are to things that are so close to their face they can’t see it. Darrell Henderson Week 4 of 2020 could also be the 30-for-30 tipping point. when Anthony Lynn goes to Tyrod Taylor it should be a 10-part series.
What do you do with DHendo now for FF? You just have to hold and see what Week 5 brings…maybe Brown and Akers will get hit by a meteorite this week and Henderson will battle Eric Dickerson for touches ahead.
-- Speaking of the delicate genius…
…and why he has effectively ended my 2020 Fantasy season.
He just took away Darrell Henderson...took an RB1 right out of my hands. But I don’t want to overlook him also taking a TE1 out of my hands either. Tyler Higbee (3-21-0/4) is playing a ton of snaps…that’s not the problem. The problem is the delicate genius isn’t designing plays for him like the end of last year. Higbee has a measly 3-5-2-3 for catches in games this season…less than 55 yards in each game.
Dalton Schultz gets better treatment in the offense than Higbee. And we left off last year with Higbee setting NFL records for TE performance…but, we can’t have successful things continuing to happen outside the holy playbook/scheme…so, Higbee became amazing and the Rams offense never better late last year…and then 2020 comes and we go away from it for more Josh Reynolds (3-25-0/4), I guess?
One game of results is a blip. Two games is getting uncomfortable. Three games is pretty damning, but maybe there’s a turn to come (see: Joe Mixon Wk4)…but we’re four games in and this is who Higbee is going to be, we guess…2-4 catches, 30-50 yards per game and you HOPE he’s going to be an 8+ TD for the season guy to make FF points. That’s how Mark Andrews does it.
3.0 rec., 41.5 yards, 1.00 TDs per game = Andrews 2020 YTD
3.3 rec., 38.8 yards, 0.75 TDs per game = Higbee 2020 YTD
We have a basic fantasy TE1 with Higbee…nothing special, apparently. You have to stick with waiting for the explosion of TDs/output games and live with the TE2 weeks. If you try to guess the big weeks, you’ll drive yourself mad. If you got a better option…go for it, but there’s Kittle-Kelce-Waller…and then everybody else randomly blows. Higbee and Andrews might be #4-5 in the TE rankings as we go, but it’s going to be painful to live with every other 1-2 weeks of weak results.
-- I really think Wayne Gallman (6-45-0) might take over this backfield for a stretch…or at least work into a split with ancient Devonta Freeman (11-33-0, 4-35-0/4).
Gallman was the better back here. He provided somewhat of a spark where none of the other backs are capable of providing. It’s not a great spark, but it’s at least a spark.
Not sure if it will matter if he gets to it but watch for Gallman to work into a split and go for the takeover within the next few weeks. A split is more likely.
-- Speaking of disappointing TEs…Evan Engram (6-35-0/10).
I am coming to the realization that Higbee isn’t going to be what I thought/hoped for 2020. However, I’m not through with Engram. 10 targets here…led all receivers on either side in this game. They used him with a purpose…it was nice to see. If you give Engram 8+ targets a game, he’ll catch 5+ passes…and he’s capable of making magic happen off one of them. He could be the Giants’ Darren Waller mismatch/go-to.
Engram or Higbee ROS? What a choice.
Engram for me…in desperation. In PPR. Higbee non-PPR.
They’ll probably both just be #6-10 PPG TE scorers…and non-threatening/way behind the top/big three TEs.
-- Daniel Jones (23-36 for 190 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 6-45-0) didn’t play totally awful this game. Among all the bad QBs…Jones is one of the better ones.
They sped up his game and simplified things with quick hitters here, and that works for Jones…takes the lack of protection away from bothering Jones – because pressure is BAD for Jones. He’s patting the ball before he throws a hundred times in nervousness when the pocket is collapsing. Jones sees ghosts like Sam Darnold does…even if they aren’t really there.
The Giants had the ball in the red zone late to tie/win the game, but ‘Pattie’/heavy patter of the ball before a pass Daniel Jones chucked it too late and the Rams DB broke on his pass easy and picked it off at the goal line…ball game.
-- If Daniel Jones could be made a little less awful, and if the Giants find a decent running back…they could take that with their emerging defense and make some noise in the godawful NFC East.
Let’s talk about this defensive makeover…
Signed Blake Martinez (13 tackles, 1 TFL) from Green Bay in the offseason, and I think he’s one of the best ILBs in the NFL…like top 2-3-4-5 among them.
Signed James Bradberry (4 tackles) from Carolina…and he’s been terrific as a shutdown corner. He had been a nice zone corner and unsure man-to-man guy, but he’s put those concerns to rest and then some.
Signed Kyler Fackrell (4 tackles, 1 sack, 3 TFLs) from Green Bay, one of the smartest defensive signings, under the radar, in the NFL.
These are three great additions. They added Logan Ryan late to aid the cause as well.
After Week 4 ends the Giants defense is going to be top half of the league in points allowed, top 10 in lowest total yards allowed, and top 5 in lowest yards per offensive play allowed.
The current leaders in ‘yards per offensive per play’ among defenses…
1) Indianapolis
2) San Francisco
3) Pittsburgh
4) Philadelphia
5) NY Giants
…names you might expect…PLUS the Giants, in other words.
Also, this NYG-D is #4 in yards per carry allowed.
This is a top 10 NFL defense right now…getting no support from their offense.
Guess what? After Week 5 vs. Dallas…they face WAS-PHI-TB-WAS-PHI…WAS and PHI offenses (bad offenses) 4x in a five-game stretch.
Looking for a sleeper defense in deeper leagues? Here’s my first real deep find of 2020.
-- The more lauded defense, but not as gritty as the G-Men, the Rams-DST still have a decent outlook ahead for the four more weeks due to the schedule.
At WAS, at SF, CHI, at MIA. They might be tough games to win but they are good matchups for their DST…maybe/maybe not vs. SF.
Snap Counts of Interest:
35 = M Brown
22 = Henderson
30 = J Reynolds
03 = Jefferson
37 = Devonta
21 = Dion Lewis
10 = Gallman
