2022 Week 14: 49ers 35, Buccaneers 7 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
I don’t think there’s enough time left in the season for the mainstream to fully grasp the lessons to be learned from this game -- not that this game was some turning point, in and of itself…it was just a reflection of a reality that was there all along.
And, as a bettor, I hope THEY won’t get it for the rest of the season…so, I can keep taking advantage of them.
The 1-2 punch reality going into this game, and coming out:
1) The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are terrible. Tom Brady is the only thing keeping that ship afloat and he can barely complete normal passes in this dreadful passing game. It’s been true all season, but THEY keep thinking it will turn any moment…or they remember the late game comeback wins and not the 50+ minutes of awfulness on offense prior.
There’s late game comeback output and wins for TB because that’s the time defenses go into prevent and allow Brady space to operate. In normal circumstances, this offense cannot move the ball like a normal pass game. Facing a defense like SF’s made it even worse.
2) Brock Purdy is not some hack you have to ‘hide’ or ask him to ‘not lose the game’. Purdy is the best NFL QB the 49ers had on their roster, as we are finding out, and he makes this offense better…he’s an improvement for SF, not a detraction.
The mainstream will NOT go for this 2nd thought…because it means the NFL Draft, its scouting and analysis, and its enslavement to all things SEC or Ohio State or USC -- the religion of the NFL Draft will NOT be ruined by reality for the flock/fans.
This game reflected those two truths: Purdy was better than Brady (because of their surroundings) and it was over by halftime (28-0), and a minute into the 3rd-quarter it was 35-0…and then they just played out the string as a joke, and the Bucs got a lucky TD to even put points on the board.
The Buccaneers are so horrible right now, I feel like I’m stealing by betting against them every week with Tom Brady inflated lines…and winning almost every week -- but football analysis is a religion, not a science, and one of the 2022 tenets of the NFL faith is ‘Brady will get it going, and then WATCHOUT!’. It’s not going to happen. I don’t even know that the Bucs will win the NFC South, because as pathetic as the division is, the Bucs are just as pathetic.
TB is going to catch two breaks that should launch them to the NFC South title. They have (1) Arizona and (2) Atlanta on the remaining schedule, and those teams are now going to backups and their seasons will be over when those games are played, so the Bucs should be able to sneak by them and finish (8-9) and win the division title…and then get walloped by the NFC East wild card #5 seed (DAL or PHI).
The 49ers are rolling…six straight wins, 8 of their last 9. Now, (9-4) and are going to destroy Seattle this week and possibly win out and take the #1 seed in the NFC.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Watching the two QBs at work here…
Brock Purdy (16-21 for 185 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 2-3-1) logged another game where he looked terrific (especially for a rookie forced into action). He’s not just game managing…he’s making things happen. He’s zipping throws all over the field and reading coverage and making tight window throws. He’s really hit the ground running, as it seems most of the college-to-NFL QBs are doing. With Purdy, we saw it in the preseason…and he’s just getting better as he goes.
I would argue, Purdy is the best QB from the 2022 NFL Draft class…at this point. Malik Willis will probably surpass him when he gets his chance, but among the pocket passers/traditional-ish QBs…Purdy is better than Kenny Pickett (and that’s not a slam on Pickett) from what I’ve seen.
There’s a bit of an ‘it’ factor shining through with Purdy. He’s not Herbert-Burrow class talented, but in that ‘B-’ grade class, C+ type of talent. The Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Jimmy G. type QBs we think of. Purdy as Shanahan’s new Kirk Cousins into the future is very possible.
The 49ers offense looks so much better with Purdy…it’s stunning really. Kyle Shanahan will get more ‘genius’ labels from it, because the NFL religious leaders (media) and the NFL parishioners (fans) can’t comprehend Purdy is really good on his own, because of his draft stock, so they have to assign ‘blame’ somewhere to make it make sense -- so bestowing the head coach with the accolades is what the NFL pious do. Forgetting that if Shanahan is such a genius, then why did he trade years of future assets for Trey Lance, and then for Lance to be under all kinds of criticism, then to pay up Jimmy G.
The real genius of all the QB moves will be lost on the NFL faithful/typical team GMs/head coaches… I think teams should actively have 3-4 real QBs on the roster (one of them on the practice squad), talented QBs, for depth and to use as assets. San Francisco has four QBs on their roster that are all better than what the Colts have tried to rollout at starting QB this season, and last season, as an example. QB is everything, so QB depth should be everything too.
-- On the other side, we have double-the-age-of-Purdy, Tom Brady (34-55 for 253 yards, 1 TD/2 INT)…a guy who analysts and commentators will write articles about being the 49ers next QB in 2023 (because their religion is REALLY not going to allow Purdy as anything legit/futuristic).
I will keep saying it: Brady looks fine. It’s just he has no time to set up in the pocket on most throws, so when he needs to throw on obvious passing situations, he’s under pressure quickly, and can’t allow routes to develop…so, he is throwing a lot of ‘hope’ passes ahead of the receiver to neutralize the sack potential. He’s not getting sacked a lot, despite the bad O-Line…which is actually not as ‘good’ as you think, because it means Brady is dropping back/throwing passes with the primary thought of not getting sacked -- thus his two bad picks in this game, and he almost had a few more. And thus, his lower Comp. Pct. when the game is a ‘game’. Brady is getting his numbers late in games when the pressure backs down and defenses drop into more prevent, allowing him his dinks and dunks.
Brady is what he is right now, has been all year, until Tristan Wirfs can get back in, if he does this season.
-- The 49ers lost Deebo Samuel (4-21-1, 4-43-0/5) to a bad MCL/PCL sprain, which will likely force him from action for several weeks…maybe even being kept away to heal for the rest of the season, to be ready for the playoffs.
It looks like, and makes for, Ray-Ray McCloud (3-7-0, 1-11-0/1) to try and fill his shoes, to a lesser degree, the rest of the way. McCloud came into the game and got a few jet sweeps…letting us know the coaches see something in McCloud. Ray-Ray was pretty good late last season for the Steelers…maybe their best WR down the stretch (he was getting 8 or more targets in a game a lot in the 2nd-half of last season with PIT).
How to value McCloud for the next few weeks? WR3/4? First, note that Deebo wasn’t really tearing it up as it was, so McCloud is not assuming the full role of a big-time producer. Ray-Ray will be like 75-80% of Deebo’s WR2 ways. So, there’s some hope here -- but the offense isn’t high volume passing, doesn’t need to be, and Jauan Jennings and Danny Gray will be getting more work too.
-- Another ‘start’ for Rachaad White (13-56-0, 5-21-0/5), but another ‘split’ work with Leonard Fournette (4-13-0, 6-33-0/7).
I love betting against the Bucs every week because: (a) the public sees Brady and swoons…always thinking ‘this is the week’, but it never is…it’s not a Brady issue but the issue in the passing game is real. And (b) I know the Bucs are terribly coached and that they will sacrifice/waste touches on Leonard Fournette, when the one thing really working for them is Rachaad White.
Bruce Arians is the worst at seeing RB personnel, initially…he’ll ride the right guy when injuries force him to/when his favored option is taken away…but he’s pigheaded and likes the veteran RBs, so Arians shadow government/coaching through Todd Bowles will keep Fournette in the mix despite it killing the team’s offense.
White is an RB1/2 in PPR, every week now…because Tampa can’t move the ball, gets behind in games quickly, and it’s an EASY throw for under-pressure-Brady. White is averaging 6.7 catches per game the past three weeks. He has hope of getting a TDs worth of catches for PPR every week.
-- Jordan Mason (11-56-0) is breaking out…getting comfortable in the NFL, and is becoming the same type of hammer, only better at hammering than Elijah Mitchell was. Mason is the perfect close-out, short yardage guy right now. Mason has more to his game, he’s actually a good receiver, but all that is not needed yet with CMC rolling.
Watching Mason roll here made me have two thoughts…
1) He looks like new age D’Onta Foreman running the ball.
2) Remember when we were pushing Jordan Mason, back when SF had all the RB injuries early on in the season…but it amounted to nothing/SF didn’t even try and use him…and you thought we were dumb (not all but some)? Reminder: I’m never wrong about these talent things, I’m just months and years early sometimes…that’s all.
I’m never wrong about football scouting…just temporarily not-right -- is what will go on my tombstone.
-- Couple TB pass game notes, on receivers…
Mike Evans (4-44-0/9) looks like he’s one more misthrow from Brady away from going and punching Tom in his angelic, totally natural for a 45-year-old face. It’s not all Brady’s fault. Evans can’t get open like he used to AND Brady has no time to watch the Evans’ routes downfield develop…so, Brady has to throw guess passes to him…guessing where Evans might be -- and it has not worked 98% of the season.
But they keep trying…and I get there will be a game ahead, if Wirfs is back especially, where the planets align, and Evans has some 150+ yards and 2-3 TD game. I can sense it. Use him in DFS lineups ahead, I’m just not sure which week it will be.
Cade Otton (4-28-0/5) is a good quick pass/checkdown option for Brady…thus the 5.0 catches per game the past two weeks, but just 28.0 yards exactly in each game. It’s just a little short dump pass…with some hope that one time it will be for a short TD. Not a ton of TE1 hope here, but TE2 hoping for a TD to launch into a weak TE1 week.
Snap Counts of Interest:
50 = Kittle
49 = Aiyuk
28 = McCloud
27 = Deebo
22 = J Jennings
13 = Gray
44 = CMC
19 = Mason
45 = Otton
28 = Brate
40 = Rachaad
36 = Fournette
