2022 Week 14: Bills 20, Jets 12 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
This was two heavyweight brawlers going toe-to-toe, via their defenses, in the sloppy/light snow, cold conditions in Buffalo -- and one of them won, the better of the two teams, but ‘better’ not by much. The Jets are arguably as good as the Bills right now…Josh Allen run game, and general goodness being the difference.
This game was 0-0 heading towards halftime, but Buffalo scored a TD with seconds remaining before half. The Jets came out of the half to tie it 7-7, and then the Bills kinda found ways to make plays, usually a Josh Allen run, and Buffalo got up/took control 20-7 into the 4th-quarter. The Jets tried to mount a comeback, but the field conditions were sloppy and the Bills defense was too good to pull it off. Both of these teams are really good/tough.
A huge win for Buffalo (10-3), effectively kicking the Jets out of the AFC East race and with Miami losing, the Bills can effectively put this division away if they beat Miami Week 15…and they should at home in the cold. The Bills are headed to a 13-win season with a chance at a #1 seed, which home field for them is HUGE.
The Jets (7-6) fell out of the wildcard with this loss, which is a shame because they belong in the playoffs. They have a season-on-the-line type of game hosting Detroit this week…whose season is also kinda on-the-line with them getting back into the wildcard hunt. Two of the best upstart teams in the league doing battle with a lot on the line. The Jets are likely to finish (9-8) and in danger of being the final team out of the AFC playoffs…it’s between them and the Chargers and Miami. Week 18 Jets vs. Dolphins may be for the final AFC wildcard spot.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The main thing to know about this game is: it was the tale of dominant defenses. The bad weather helped, but these two defenses are two of the best, most physical in the game.
Most FF GMs who have had the Bills are going to keep rolling with them, as they should.
However, the Jets-DST was/are out there on waivers in some leagues because they were dropped due to the fear of this Bills game. For the second time in a row, the Jets held the Bills to just 20 points. This NYJ defense is a killer. Not a great matchup with Detroit this week, but possible/do-able because the NYJ D is so good. Week 16 vs. JAC, I like. Week 17 vs. Seattle isn’t terrible.
-- Mike White (27-44 for 268 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) played a very solid game here, considering the weather and the Bills defense. Analysts squawking about White coming back to earth or the Jets maybe turning back to Zach Wilson…they have no idea what they are talking about.
Everything in football analysis is so ‘what just happened the past week is true forever’ with no context of the opponent, or conditions, etc.
Mike White is fine, Zach Wilson will never play QB for the Jets again. Detroit and Jacksonville are good FF matchups for White the next two weeks, but the weather being so cold, etc., in both games that it puts a lid on the FF-excitement a bit.
-- Josh Allen (16-27 for 147 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 10-47-1) had another weak FF passing day, saved by his running TD. Get this…
Allen was a (7/1) for quality starts in his first 8 games of the season. Since then, in his last 4 games, he’s a (1/3). His passer numbers have died…3.0 passing TDs per game his first 6 games, 1.2 passing TDs per game his last 6 games.
No MVP. No #1 QB in FF anymore.
I think the new Bills offensive coordinator is bordering on terrible, but Allen hides it pretty well…like what Justin Herbert does for the LAC O-C.
-- I thought the Jets would go to a Carter-Knight-Johnson backfield split/trio, but with Michael Carter (5-5-0, 3-15-0/6) returning from injury the Jets showed a backfield led in touches strongly by Zonovan Knight (17-71-1, 2-6-0/2).
Things like this don’t usually happen…that an NFL team pushes a UDFA rookie over drafted things. Good/great job by Robert Saleh. It was the right move.
Carter worked about as many snaps as Knight, but nowhere near the touches.
Ty Johnson was so good the prior two weeks as a 3rd-down back, but…no snaps this game.
James Robinson was set inactive, again. He’s toast.
-- Corey Davis (1-15-0/1) went up for a pass catch early and caught the pass but landed on his head…he was gone for the rest of the game with a concussion. That helped Elijah Moore (6-60-0/10) get back into the spotlight…that and the tough defense/pressure on White, and White smartly adjusting to shorter throws to the likes of Moore.
I like Moore for Week 15 because of the matchup…slot WRs have been killing Detroit lately, and Corey Davis is likely to be out again. I’m not-so-keen on Moore’s long term/ROS but I like this Week 15 shot.
-- James Cook (4-6-0, 1-9-0/1) has looked SO good in recent weeks and is such a pass game weapon in development…I thought he might lead the backfield again for Buffalo, like he did the game prior. But no…the Buffalo lame O-C is too smart for that.
This Buffalo offense is degenerating weekly…and the one major change point in the system in 2022 is the O-C. I also think this because of the bad WRs he’s working -- going with Gabe Davis and letting Isaiah Hodgins get stolen away, Khalil Shakir not getting developed more, and now trying desperately to recreate the past with John Brown and Cole Beasley signed? Who is making these decisions? Cook should be getting 10+ touches a game, minimum…and 5+ targets per game -- and you see what he got in this HUGE game against a tough defense.
Better hope Josh Allen keeps bailing you out via the run.
-- Two quick Bills receiver notes…
Dawson Knox (4-41-1/7) had a decent FF game…is he back to FF useful, again…like 2022? Not necessarily. He’s like the 15-20 TEs that are TE1/2 hopefuls…matchup based and luck. I don’t see any great shift to him.
Stefon Diggs (3-37-0/5) was shut down, and I thought it was because of Sauce Gardner (4 tackles, 1 PD)…but watching the tape, it really was both Gardner and D.J. Reed handling him. The Jets didn’t chase Diggs with Sauce. Both these Jets corners are really good/great. Frightening for any non-slot WRs facing the Jets, like it’s been for weeks/months. Up next, the Lions (Chark-Reynolds).
Snap Counts of Interest:
29 = Singletary
24 = J Cook
10 = Hines
72 = G Wilson
61 = Elijah Moore
51 = Mims
17 = Berrios
37 = M Carter
35 = Zon Knight
