2022 Week 15 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick
I’ve felt good about the last two weeks of picks, going into the week…whether delusional or not -- but we’ve been crushing it all year, so I trust my instincts right now. However, this week…I absolutely hate the lines and picks, save for the top 1-2-3 options…and even the top plays aren’t screaming out to me. Going to take it mild this week unless I see something in the injury reports late in the week that turns me on.
I’m due for like a (3-13) pick week, I fear this could be that week. Hopefully, I am jinxing it all with this talk!
It’s a week of favorites, at the top for us…so, that scares me as well. Usually, in our top five bets, 3-5 of them are underdogs. This week…the top 5 are all favorites. Yikes!
Good luck with all our best this week!
Week 14 results…
FFM All picks straight up: 8-5
FFM ATS: 9-4
FFM Best Bet: 1-0
FFM Blazing Five (no TNF): 3-2
FFM Calling a dog for an outright win: 1-0
Chris ATS: 6-7
Ross ATS: 6-7
Chris Best Bet: 0-1
Ross Best Bet: 0-1
When All 3 analysts agree: 2-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 2-0, for me
FFM Survivor: SEA(W)
Chris Survivor: XXX
Ross Survivor: SEA(W)
All Underdogs ATS = 8-5
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YTD results…
All picks straight up: 145-71-2
ATS: 126-78-4 (61.7%)
Best Bet: 10-4
Blazing Five (no TNF): 44-24-2 (64.7%)
Calling a dog for an outright win: 18-11
Chris ATS: 127-77-4
Ross ATS: 104-100-4
Chris Best Bet: 9-5
Ross Best Bet: 7-7
When All 3 analysts agree: 52-25-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 22-17, for me
FFM Survivor: BAL(W), BUF(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), CIN(W), KC(W), MIA(W), ATL(L), NO(W), DAL(W), SEA(W), SF(W)
Chris Survivor: BAL(W), GB(W), LAC(L), PHI(W), TB(W), LAR(W), CIN(W), DAL(W), BUF(L), TEN(W), SF(W), XXXXX
Ross Survivor: DEN(L), XXX, BUF (L), GB(W), PHI(W), SF(L), LV(W), DAL(W), TB(W), KC(W), BAL(W), MIA(W), SEA(W), CIN(W)
All Underdogs ATS = 111-93-4
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Week 15 Picks….
CIN (-3.5) at TB
The Computer says: CIN by 8.0 (a 4.5 spread differential)
So, the 49ers crushed the hapless Bucs last week. Well, Cincinnati is equal to or better than SF…so, I’ll ride the Bengals/against the Bucs (like I always do, profitably). The problem is -- Cincy has some injury issues that have me a bit concerned (Hendrickson, Boyd, maybe Tee). Still, arguably the Bengals are the best team in the NFL…so it’s easy to lay 3.5 to a terrible team like Tampa…but the public doesn’t recognize Cincy and still emotionally loves TOMpa Bay.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: CIN
Ross Jacobs: CIN *BEST BET* *SURVIVOR*
SF (-3.5) at SEA
The Computer says: SF by 7.9 (a 4.4 spread differential)
As long as Brock Purdy is OK, then this is a possible best bet of the week. Seattle has lost three of their last 4…losing to bad teams and only beating the John Wofford Rams, barely…and I thought they were outplayed in that. I think the 49ers continue to steamroll mediocre teams here…and Seattle is not the home field advantage it used to be. Seattle is (3-4) at home in 2022.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: SEA
Ross Jacobs: SEA
ATL at NO (-4.0)
The Computer says: NO by 7.0 (a 3.0 spread differential)
Desmond Ridder is going to get his first test in a big game against a very tough Saints defense at New Orleans? I don’t think Ridder is like Purdy-Skylar, etc. I think Ridder is going to struggle right away and the ‘at Saints’ isn’t going to help for a debut.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NO
Ross Jacobs: ATL
DAL (-4.0) at JAX
The Computer says: DAL by 6.8 (a 2.8 spread differential)
The Titans beat down by JAX + the Dallas near loss to Houston Week 14 = the line has too much ‘what happened last week’ in it. The week prior, Jacksonville got crushed by the Lions and Dallas obliterated the Colts -- after those Week 13 games, this line would’ve been -7+ for Dallas, but ‘last week’ is such a draw, so it’s down to -4.0. A gift.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: JAX
Ross Jacobs: JAX
NE at LV (-1.0)
The Computer says: LV by 3.6 (a 2.6 spread differential)
‘What just happened last week’ is gospel…so NE struggles with, but pulls away against Colt McCoy on cable television…and now they’re Super Bowl contenders, I guess.
LV losing that Rams/Baker game is also ‘what just happened last week’ as well, so everyone hates them -- when they outplayed the Rams for 55+ minutes. I’ll take the bounce back with LV, who is still in the wild card if they beat NE here.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NE
Ross Jacobs: LV
BAL at CLE (-2.5)
The Computer says: CLE by 0.2 (a 2.3 spread differential)
Two teams that bore me to death, but I can get one of them with +2.5? Hell yeah, I’ll take it…Tyler Huntley or Anthony Brown. I am 95% confident it’s Huntley, which I like.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: BAL
Ross Jacobs: BAL
PIT at CAR (-2.5)
The Computer says: CAR by 0.3 (a 2.2 spread differential)
Same/similar teams…bad offenses, bad offensive coaches, good defenses…so, I’ll just take the points.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: CAR
Ross Jacobs: CAR
TEN at LAC (-2.5)
The Computer says: LAC by 4.6 (a 2.1 spread differential)
I usually ride with the Titans out of great respect, but they are so banged up and getting manhandled by teams of late…I’m losing faith. And LAC is getting key pieces back from injury recently/weekly and are again this week. I don’t respect LAC, but there’s too much going for the Chargers in this matchup, and against the Titans, to pick against LAC.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: LAC
Ross Jacobs: TEN
NYG at WSH (-4.5)
The Computer says: WSH by 2.4 (a 2.1 spread differential)
These two feel like the same team, so gimme +4.5 with the dog. NYG’s last stand.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NYG
Ross Jacobs: NYG
ARI at DEN (-2.5)
The Computer says: DEN by 0.8 (a 1.7 spread differential)
Two bad teams, the best unit is the Denver defense…but if Russell Wilson doesn’t play it’s an issue…and Denver has been an issue all year. With these two bad teams, I have to just take the points.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: ARI
Ross Jacobs: ARI
LAR at GB (-7.0)
The Computer says: GB by 6.0 (a 1.0 spread differential)
If this was in neutral weather, I’d take the Rams to win…but this is gonna be a frozen tundra, and that favors Aaron Rodgers, usually. But it’s so many points with Green Bay, who isn’t very good.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: GB
Ross Jacobs: GB
KC (-14.0) at HOU
The Computer says: KC by 13.3 (a 0.7 spread differential)
If Kansas City is so good…why do they struggle with bad teams this year? Lost to the Colts. Couldn’t put Denver away. The Chargers had them beat twice but lost by 3 each time. I say all that to note…KC is not normally blowing away these ‘bad’ teams. 14 points is a lot…at Houston, with the Texans with some momentum off the Dallas game.
13 games for Houston this season…one win…and of all their losses, they’ve lost by more than 14 only two times this season. I won’t bet it, because no Dameon Pierce is a killer, but just a pick.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: HOU
Ross Jacobs: KC
PHI (-9.0) at CHI
The Computer says: PHI by 8.5 (a 0.5 spread differential)
Justin Fields has lost five games in a row, and only one by 10 points or more. Low confidence here, just taking the points as the Bears get their missing secondary members back off the bye.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: CHI *Best Bet*
Ross Jacobs: PHI
MIA at BUF (-7.0)
The Computer says: BUF by 7.3 (a 0.3 spread differential)
Weeks ago, I would have taken Miami +7 as a best bet, but now with Tua struggling…there’s too much pressure that Buffalo could swallow up Tua and destroy all of Miami’s hopes and dreams here…in the very cold Buffalo winter…bad for a Florida-based team. I think Miami may run into a buzzsaw here.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: BUF
Ross Jacobs: BUF
DET at NYJ (-1.0)
The Computer says: NYJ by 1.3 (a 0.3 spread differential)
I really like both these teams…don’t make me pick between them! Can they both win to keep pushing to the playoffs? Cold weather and the Jets D = my pick, not bet.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NYJ
Ross Jacobs: NYJ
IND at MIN (-4.0)
The Computer says: MIN by 4.2 (a 0.2 spread differential)
I cannot side with the Matt Ryan team.
My betting instincts say I should take the points, but the Colts are making too many poor choices in personnel to me…so I’m going against Indy for a pick not a bet.
*FFM SURVIVOR PICK*…I’m running out of options!!
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: MIN
Ross Jacobs: IND
