RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...
11/01 SUN (7:40amET)
Today:
-- Week 7 Game Reports
-- Week 8 Projections FINAL around 12:30pmET
-- Week 8 Sunday Morning Sit-Start Show
----------------
-- Two Scouts Talking YouTube Video
This past week/s:
Travis Hunter: https://youtu.be/FcLBUPIbcOw
Seth McGowan: https://youtu.be/CyQLmD3b9Bg
Tremble/TJH: https://youtu.be/1iSevcxR_n4
JJ McMcCarthy: https://youtu.be/4ZKSVSeD6Es
Omar Cooper: https://youtu.be/hp7Ye87ubCM
Woody Marks: https://youtu.be/BtLIcmlu5oo
Dohnte Meyers: https://youtu.be/EEIw3IGX_zQ
Darius Cooper: https://youtu.be/1wj2pa_VEd8
Keon Coleman: https://youtu.be/yne4bYOpCG8
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
*This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
Early Injury News...
-- Braelon Allen is reportedly starting today but they haven't said officially whether Breece Hall is gonna be out or not. I think Breece will be inactive, but it’s not official. They have the excuse of his quad...AND the fact they are likely trading him Monday, so they don’t want him reinjured. But Breece out is NOT official yet...just word that Braelon is starting (which should mean Breece is out).
-- Jakobi Meyers is playing.
-- Jaylen Waddle looks like he is playing.
-- Charbonnet and Price cleared for MNF. Price should be normal. Charbonnet to be managed.
-- KC minus two CBs: Delane and Sneed. Good for Denver.
-- I ran a report looking at the QBs who faced the BAD pass defenses (in FFM’s system) the most up through Week 14, and then I asked my AI to read the data and see what combinations of QBs might face these teams the most, as a tandem, ahead...LV, BUF, DAL, etc.
Here are the top hits:
Schedule & Coverage Breakdown
In this dataset, the maximum number of games any single quarterback plays against these target opponents between Weeks 8 and 14 is 3 games. Across the 7-week stretch (Weeks 8 through 14), no two-quarterback pairing can achieve a perfect 7-out-of-7 weeks because the only quarterbacks playing in Week 14 (Cam Ward, Jordan Love, and Justin Herbert) have at most 2 target games total.
The maximum possible coverage any two-quarterback tandem can achieve is 6 out of 7 weeks.
The 3rd one is the kinda interesting one...if you can stomach starting those 2 QBs. Just an FYI, as I was looking for any edges I can find out there at all positions.
1. The Maximum Coverage Duo (6 of 7 Weeks): Patrick Mahomes + Sam Darnold
This is the only pairing on the board that combines for 6 distinct target matchups with zero week overlap:
Week 8: Patrick Mahomes at DET (Proj PPR: 26.64 | Non-PPR: 22.87) (error, it's DEN)- Week 9: Sam Darnold vs. ARI (Proj PPR: 24.83 | Non-PPR: 21.76)
- Week 10: Sam Darnold at LV (Proj PPR: 20.99 | Non-PPR: 18.23)
- Week 11: Patrick Mahomes vs. ARI (Proj PPR: 27.42 | Non-PPR: 23.76)
- Week 12: Patrick Mahomes at BUF (Proj PPR: 37.04 | Non-PPR: 32.35)
- Week 13: Sam Darnold vs. DAL (Proj PPR: 22.27 | Non-PPR: 19.16)
- Week 14: Gap (Neither plays a target opponent)
- Total 6-Game PPR Projection: 159.19 (Avg: 26.53 PPG)
- Total 6-Game Non-PPR Projection: 138.13 (Avg: 23.02 PPG)
2. The Elite Ceiling Duo (5 Weeks Covered, Massive Upside): Patrick Mahomes + Drake Maye
If you prefer ceiling over raw game volume, Drake Maye owns the two highest single-game projections on the entire sheet (Week 10 vs. DET: 38.96 PPR; Week 13 vs. BUF: 44.33 PPR). Pairing Maye with Mahomes covers 5 of the 7 weeks with unmatched scoring potential:
Week 8: Patrick Mahomes at DET (Proj PPR: 26.64)...(error, it's DEN)- Week 9: Gap
- Week 10: Drake Maye vs. DET (Proj PPR: 38.96)
- Week 11: Patrick Mahomes vs. ARI (Proj PPR: 27.42)
- Week 12: Patrick Mahomes at BUF (Proj PPR: 37.04)
- Week 13: Drake Maye vs. BUF (Proj PPR: 44.33)
- Week 14: Gap
- Total 5-Game PPR Projection: 174.39 (Avg: 34.88 PPG)
3. The Best Late-Season / Playoff Push Duo (Includes Week 14): Sam Darnold + Cam Ward
If securing a handpicked matchup for Week 14 is a priority for your playoff push, pairing Darnold with Cam Ward covers 5 weeks and runs deep into the late schedule:
- Week 8: Gap
- Week 9: Sam Darnold vs. ARI (Proj PPR: 24.83)
- Week 10: Sam Darnold at LV (Proj PPR: 20.99)
- Week 11: Cam Ward at DAL (Proj PPR: 16.42)
- Week 12: Gap
- Week 13: Sam Darnold vs. DAL (Proj PPR: 22.27)
- Week 14: Cam Ward at DET (Proj PPR: 20.94)
- Total 5-Game PPR Projection: 105.45
-- Sports Cards Giveaway winners...
Contest winners, my plan is to start shipping out your cards this upcoming week as long as I don't get totally crushed with football action. When I ship them, I will e-mail you to let you know they're on the way so you can keep a lookout for them.
They are being packaged up Friday-Saturday, barring any schedule issues. I have all the shipping material. Likely then taken to a shipper Wednesday 11/4.
==Injury Center/Ward==
-- Zach Charbonnet (knee) is expected to be active for Week 8 against the Bears.
-- Seahawks removed Jadarian Price (chest) from the injury report Saturday and he is expected to play in Week 8 against the Bears.
-- Broncos placed RB RJ Harvey (knee) on injured reserve.
-- Chargers placed S Derwin James (hamstring) on injured reserve.
-- Jets placed NT T’Vondre Sweat (knee) on injured reserve.
-- TreVeyon Henderson (illness) was ruled out for Week 8 against the Dolphins.
-- A.J. Brown (knee) was ruled out for Week 8 against the Dolphins.
-- Bears RB Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) is out for Week 8 against the Seahawks.
-- ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports Daron Payne suffered a season-ending Jones fracture.
-- The Ringer’s Tom Pelissero reports Micah Parsons (knee) is expected to practice next week.
==Interesting Stats Center==
-- T’Vondre Sweat splits:
On field:
3.54 ypc
37.4% offensive rushing success rate
Off field:
4.87 ypc
48.9% offensive rushing success rate
-- Pete Thamel (@PeteThamel) 2027 QB UPDATE... Who is QB1? As voted on by 25 NFL scouts and executives:
- Drew Mestemaker, OSU: 17 votes (most votes all-time in this exercise)
- CJ Carr, Notre Dame: 4 votes
- Darian Mensah, Miami: 3 votes
- Dante Moore, Oregon: 1 vote
In September, it looked like this...
- Dante Moore, Oregon: 14 votes
- Arch Manning, Texas: 7 votes
- LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina: 2 votes
- Sam Leavitt, LSU: 1 vote
- CJ Carr, Notre Dame: 1 vote
-- BTJ stats: https://x.com/CantALoupe_FF/status/2116537934291616228?a=iEV2e_82pzGcvxPnI7U&s=20
RC vs. Ross Coffee bets (through Wk7):
More targets this season...
31 = Raymond (RC)
25 = D. Swift (Ross)
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES ==
-- NBC 26 Northeast Wisconsin reports “newly released records show additional women contacted the Hobart/Lawrence (Wisconsin) Police Department to report alleged physical incidents involving Josh Jacobs.”
-- @GregWilliamsAZ: Josh Jacobs is averaging three accusations since his return to football. That’s more than his 2.3 yards per carry.
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- Star Wars: https://youtu.be/7-SHiKV8ZhQ?si=34dBvzl0gbMlrPvR
-- Telling...and telling on who the feature player is: https://x.com/jmthrivept/status/2116550247170388431?a=VX5R0rSQfkZWNs9RahM&s=20
-- This was a pretty good play: https://x.com/michaeljduarte/status/2116710439895838844?a=ZHfMdVaemIMdiZ9aV9A&s=20
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
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=====================
10/31 SAT (8:35amET)
Today:
-- Week 7 Game Reports
-- Week 8 Projections update around 8-10pmET, after going through all the injury reports.
-- Week 8 Saturday Night Callups
----------------
-- Two Scouts Talking YouTube Video
This past week/s:
Travis Hunter: https://youtu.be/FcLBUPIbcOw
Seth McGowan: https://youtu.be/CyQLmD3b9Bg
Tremble/TJH: https://youtu.be/1iSevcxR_n4
JJ McMcCarthy: https://youtu.be/4ZKSVSeD6Es
Omar Cooper: https://youtu.be/hp7Ye87ubCM
Woody Marks: https://youtu.be/BtLIcmlu5oo
Dohnte Meyers: https://youtu.be/EEIw3IGX_zQ
Darius Cooper: https://youtu.be/1wj2pa_VEd8
Keon Coleman: https://youtu.be/yne4bYOpCG8
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
*This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
Let’s do a trade rumor edition today since that feels like all I talked about on Friday with contacts. Here are the names I’ve had the most interesting FF-related discussions about and any notes on teams in play for the player.
-- RUMOR: Breece Hall gonna be traded next few days.
Among the teams being bandied about, SEATTLE is the one I hear the most.
@BrianCoz: Saw Breece Hall in the locker room. I asked if I could get an injury update. He politely declined. We’ll see if he’s out there Sunday. (RC Note: people are thinking he may be held out because a trade is imminent)
-- RUMOR: Jonathan Taylor to the Bengals is on fire, and Chase Brown would go to Indy as part of the deal.
JT to be traded has moved from 25% likely (to me) a few days ago to 90%+ now.
Minnesota trying hard to be in these sweepstakes as well. But JT wants to be on an obvious top/contender team and doesn’t consider the Vikings that kind of team. Seattle is looking at a JT too (Jadarian Price could be in the deal).
Denver is also trying to buy an RB...and a JT deal would send Jonah Coleman to Indy as part of the deal.
Wow. The teams trying to get JT are willing to ditch their rookie RBs without blinking.
This is the new NFL...too much talent, special guys are special, and EFF DEM PICKS. We should do the same in Dynasty.
-- RUMOR: AJ Brown injury sending NE to the trade market...
The word is that injury is related to his chronic knee issue and he may never be the same again, and he may go on IR right away as the beginning of the end) and the Patriots are now forced to look at mid-range wide receivers as they wait for Romeo Dobbs and Mack Collins to return from IR.
Brian Thomas Jr. here?
-- RUMOR: Josh Downs will be traded to...
KC, NE, NYG are the names I hear the most.
-- RUMOR: You think the Bears defense is promising now? They are likely to add Khalil Mack and Nashon Wright in a deal as well. If they do...oh man, is this team a contender.
-- RUMOR: Detroit desperately trying to get CB help...
Rig Woolen at the top of their list.
Other trade headlines floating around:
-- @jjones9: In an unusual move, Giants head coach John Harbaugh called Titans owner Amy Adams Strunk directly in an attempt to trade for All Pro DT Jeffery Simmons. Obviously, it didn’t work. My latest What I’m Hearing column at @TheAthletic
-- Sports Cards Giveaway winners...
Contest winners, my plan is to start shipping out your cards this upcoming week as long as I don't get totally crushed with football action. When I ship them, I will e-mail you to let you know they're on the way so you can keep a lookout for them.
They are being packaged up Friday-Saturday, barring any schedule issues. I have all the shipping material. Likely then taken to a shipper Wednesday 11/4.
==Injury Center/Ward==
-- Panthers head coach Dave Canales said Bryce Young’s knee injury may be limiting his mobility.
-- Former Saints WR Lance Moore gave a very interesting and valid theory as to why Jordyn Tyson’s return from injury has been delayed/taking this long over on the Saints Squad Show podcast!: https://x.com/sarotobiii/status/2116145430190854330?a=h7slQpcl0pG_Hq0hKW4&s=20
-- Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT/@jmthrivept: Very curious to see if RJ Harvey is placed on IR tomorrow. And then to find out if it’s short term or season-ending
-- Friday Injury Reports roundup
Status: Out
- ARI | Jon Gaines | C
- ARI | Walter Nolen | DT
- ATL | Brian Robinson | RB
- BAL | Jaylinn Hawkins | S
- BAL | Vega Ioane | OG
- CIN | Kyle Dugger | S
- DAL | KaVontae Turpin | WR
- DAL | Dee Winters | LB
- DEN | RJ Harvey | RB
- DEN | Talanoa Hufanga | S
- IND | Anthony Gould | WR
- IND | Justin Walley | CB
- JAX | Antonio Johnson | S
- LAC | Kayode Awosika | OG
- LAC | Derwin James | S
- LAC | Deane Leonard | CB
- LAC | Brenen Thompson | WR
- LV | Patrick Johnson | LB
- MIA | Kadyn Proctor | OG
- NYJ | Max Mitchell | OT
- NYJ | Joseph Ossai | DE
- NYJ | T'Vondre Sweat | DT
- PHI | Jihaad Campbell | LB
- PHI | Britain Covey | WR
- PHI | Jonathan Jones | CB
- PHI | DeVonta Smith | WR
- PHI | Dontayvion Wicks | WR
- PIT | Brandin Echols | CB
- PIT | Doneiko Slaughter | CB
- TB | Emeka Egbuka | WR
- TEN | Tyjae Spears | RB
- TEN | Carnell Tate | WR
- TEN | Tommy Townsend | P
- WAS | Javon Kinlaw | DT
- WAS | Daron Payne | DT
Status: Doubtful
- LAR | Joe Cardona | C
- NYJ | David Bailey | DE
- SEA | Charles Cross | OT
Status: Questionable (DNP Thursday & Friday)
- BUF | Dee Alford | CB
- CHI | Kyle Monangai | RB
- CLE | Tytus Howard | OT
- DAL | Luke Schoonmaker | TE
- IND | Bryce Boettcher | LB
- KC | Mansoor Delane | CB
- NE | A.J. Brown | WR
- NE | TreVeyon Henderson | RB
- SEA | Velus Jones | RB
- SEA | Uchenna Nwosu | LB
- SEA | Rashid Shaheed | WR
==Interesting Stats Center==
-- @SharpFootball: Derrick Henry over his last 6 games:
3.5 YPC...
Hit at or behind the line on 54% of runs...
0.65 yards before contact (30th of 32)...
No 20+ yard run since Week 3...
Buffalo allows 3.6 YPC to RBs, 5th fewest
And Baltimore just lost OL Vega Ioane
-- Josh Jacobs has had 32 carries this season.
Yards gained from least to most:
-3, -3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10
-- Consecutive games with at LEAST one Passing TD
29 - Jared Goff
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11 - Kirk Cousins
10
9 - Joe Burrow
8 - Jordan Love, Bryce Young
7 - Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy
6 - Geno Smith
RC vs. Ross Coffee bets (through Wk7):
More targets this season...
31 = Raymond (RC)
25 = D. Swift (Ross)
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES ==
-- Didn’t know...don’t really care, but: https://x.com/TMZ/status/2116301913016651828?a=NtKr0Js1IKPrmY1Lx0w&s=20
-- @SleeperNFL: 3 more women have accused Josh Jacobs of physical abuse, per @mattschneidman. One of the women (from 2022) didn’t report abuse because Jacobs told her she could be deported.
(RC NOTE: The heat around Josh Jacobs is heating up again, not just because of this note I saw)
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- You have to share it every Halloween: https://youtu.be/rS00xWnqwvI?si=bR_U-xJT6gccWRV8
-- Poor Ladd: https://x.com/TRICHERATOPS_/status/2116220646032384321?a=E-Ki45RywsYlw8GeVq0&s=20
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*Draft Guide season access $24.99: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
.
10/30 FRI (7:22amET)
Today:
-- Week 7 Game Reports
-- Week 8 Projections update around 8-10pmET, after going through all the injury reports.
----------------
-- Two Scouts Talking YouTube Video
This past week/s:
Seth McGowan: https://youtu.be/CyQLmD3b9Bg
Tremble/TJH: https://youtu.be/1iSevcxR_n4
JJ McMcCarthy: https://youtu.be/4ZKSVSeD6Es
Omar Cooper: https://youtu.be/hp7Ye87ubCM
Woody Marks: https://youtu.be/BtLIcmlu5oo
Dohnte Meyers: https://youtu.be/EEIw3IGX_zQ
Darius Cooper: https://youtu.be/1wj2pa_VEd8
Keon Coleman: https://youtu.be/yne4bYOpCG8
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
*This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
TNF First Reaction
-- This will forever be known as the game Christian Watson left and went to the hospital via an ambulance mid-game, then came back via an ambulance, jogged back to the team, went back in the game, and added some more fantasy points.
Watson ended up having a pretty solid fantasy game but had he not gotten hurt and left for a while, he probably would have scored 30+ points on a depleted Carolina secondary. Most of Matthew Golden-Drops’ (MGD) nice fantasy game came after Watson was out.
-- I think I had the proper football analysis reaction to that Christian Watson injury...
Everyone focused on Watson when he crashed to the ground and was clearly hurt in some way, but I commented on our FFM private Discord chat that Carolina cornerback Will Lee going down and being carted off instantly changes the game, and I went out and bet on Green Bay in-game (and they were losing at the time) because I knew my Carolina +3.5 play before the game was in serious jeopardy with Lee out...they have no CBs with talent left after him.
The Panthers cannot stay healthy, and its ripple effect is down to Bryce Young, who is now constantly backpedaling and throwing passes away before he gets hit.
-- With all the Green Bay advantages in this game, how it ended only 27-19 with Carolina having a couple of chances to try and score a touchdown and get a 2-point conversion is perplexing. Carolina played a scrappy game, but they just don't have the healthy horses on the offensive line or secondary to consistently produce and win anymore. They'll be getting some players back over the next few weeks, and if they can hold their health on them, Carolina can still try to win the division that will likely be a race to 8-9 wins, per usual.
The Falcons are now the favorite in the division, in my book. But just like all NFL teams, one or two ill-fated injuries and the Falcons can finish last in the division when we're looking at it next week. Huge game between the Buccaneers and Falcons this week. If Tampa Bay wins, then they're right back in the thick of things too.
-- TRADE: Bears acquired DT Jeffery Simmons and a fifth-round pick from the Titans in exchange for two first-round picks and a fourth-round pick.
What teams have made the major moves so far? Seattle, San Francisco, and Chicago. Also known as (arguably) “the three best teams in the NFL.” Now waiting for other ‘top 3 contender’ Jacksonville to make their big trade deadline move...and it’s not just trading BTJ.
The four most important positions when judging a football team, for me:
1) Offensive Line
2) Quarterback
3a) Shutdown cornerbacks
3b) Defensive tackle
This is obviously a boost for the Chicago Bears and their defense. They just got, arguably, the best defensive tackle in the last 10 years that's not named Aaron Donald.
Did the Bears overpay? I guess technically you could say that, if you compare it to the other deals that just happened. However, in this case, the Bears will control Simmons through 2029. The other guys that Indy traded away are set to become free agents.
Chicago got a generational talent that's still in his prime, and they control him for 3+ more seasons.
And the picks? "Eff dem picks" is gonna be the new mantra of the good teams in the NFL. The loser teams will covet and crave picks. The elite teams are giving them away for real things.
-- Sports Cards Giveaway winners...
Contest winners, my plan is to start shipping out your cards this upcoming week as long as I don't get totally crushed with football action. When I ship them, I will e-mail you to let you know they're on the way so you can keep a lookout for them.
They are being packaged up Friday-Saturday, barring any schedule issues. I have all the shipping material. Likely then taken to a shipper Wednesday 11/4.
==Injury Center/Ward==
-- Kevin Dotson again?: https://x.com/AdamGrosbard/status/2115567515229372694?a=9_E9NtyVeHLUcBwT5GY&s=20
-- Zach Charbonnet (knee) was a full participant during Thursday’s practice.
-- Michael Wilson (ribs) was limited in practice Thursday.
It was the second consecutive day in which Wilson practiced with a yellow non-contact jersey after stating Wednesday that the team was simply being overly cautious.
-- Breece Hall (quad) was limited in Thursday’s practice.
-- Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) did not practice Thursday.
-- Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald said it’s “realistic” that Jadarian Price (chest/IR) could return in Week 8.
-- Houston Chronicle’s Jonathan M Alexander reports Jaylin Noel (toe) is expected to miss the rest of the season.
-- Mansoor Delane (shoulder) did not practice Thursday.
-- DeVonta Smith was not spotted at practice on Thursday. Saquon Barkley (hamstring/back) was not spotted at Thursday’s practice.
-- A.J. Brown (knee) did not practice Thursday.
-- Lamar Jackson (ankle) practiced in full Thursday.
-- Tyjae Spears (knee) did not practice Thursday.
-- Carnell Tate (shoulder) did not practice Thursday.
-- The Tampa Bay Times’ Rick Stroud reports Emeka Egbuka (concussion/foot) shed his non-contact jersey for Thursday’s practice.
==Interesting Stats Center==
-- GMs at the trade deadline: https://x.com/RyanPaganetti/status/2115801220732555598?a=VcEAa3k372qjOxaSif0&s=20
-- Wait...who is that #4 guy? https://x.com/Ihartitz/status/2115442118667964838?a=r0mLwuyhaqb0EhXrV-Y&s=20
-- Fantastic: https://x.com/Lilly_bat98/status/2115563208358707250?a=Fnr-PhYTMF0fB3f9QwU&s=20
RC vs. Ross Coffee bets (through Wk7):
More targets this season...
31 = Raymond (RC)
25 = D. Swift (Ross)
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES ==
-- Travis Hunter's receiving volume may vary sharply by week as Jacksonville builds his route tree
Grant Udinski: “It's something that will probably vary week to week. We know that skill set will continue to develop and evolve where we're gonna continue to build off of that. But some weeks, it might be a strong feature of Travis and you may say, man, this guy suddenly had 10 catches one game and then the next game, it might only be two or three catches or a couple touches. But we know that he has that ability at all times. So we're gonna continue to try to build his route tree, build the things he can do in the run game, the screen game, the pass game. Shoot, you see him blocking out there. I think he's impressive from a blocker standpoint, whether it's in the pass game or screen game or in the run game. So we know he provides a lot for our offense anytime he's out there because he's so good with the ball in his hands, has so much different routability, but the time is limited. So we're trying to be strategic in the way we continue to build his skill set and the way we utilize his skill set as a receiver.”
-- Steelers insider Gerry Dulac regarding ex-WR George Pickens: "You don't know even half the story of Pickens' issues here. The Cowboys are already finding out. Let's see how long he lasts there."
Every Pickens statement is just like this. Say it with your chest. Explain what George Pickens did that was so bad.
-- Chiefs special teams coach Dave Toub said Harrison Butker is “our kicker.”
-- @Ihartitz: Have we ever seen Matthew Golden and Will Fuller in the same room
-- Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty on facing the Jets: “I think we can definitely get the run game going, get back on track and just really get after these guys. Couple of guys out there that don’t really want to tackle, but I’m not going to say names.”
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- Nailed it: https://x.com/prowelshguy/status/2115713737361670562?a=XQwhwymkMkuyR6ugp54&s=20
-- This is an all-timer: https://x.com/Moonlighhy/status/2115680066923622544?a=ABFewRC2r6kR17yLPHQ&s=20
-- Bryce: https://x.com/TomGunns2000/status/2115990777532694879?a=je7wmjFfLOY6-XQFHrQ&s=20
-- Watson returns: https://x.com/MySportsUpdate/status/2115991544381772176?a=ZQ82dbeiK3KF1grO7z0&s=20
-- Watson returns like this: https://x.com/TheDangerousAii/status/2116012548570992893?a=3jSJ6ouxcIvZRxZe3Ig&s=20
-- Or like this: https://x.com/FadeAwayMedia/status/2116012897486684304?a=7OGSRo9v3xNqZQ-dJBU&s=20
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*Draft Guide season access $24.99: https://ffmetrics.com/draft-guide/draft-guide
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
=====================
10/29 THU (8:08amET)
Today:
-- Week 7 Game Reports
-- Week 8 Projections update around 7:30pmET, after TNF inactives.
-- TNF CAR at GB, the FFM private Discord will be live.
----------------
-- Two Scouts Talking YouTube Video
This past week/s:
Tremble/TJH: https://youtu.be/1iSevcxR_n4
JJ McMcCarthy: https://youtu.be/4ZKSVSeD6Es
Omar Cooper: https://youtu.be/hp7Ye87ubCM
Woody Marks: https://youtu.be/BtLIcmlu5oo
Dohnte Meyers: https://youtu.be/EEIw3IGX_zQ
Darius Cooper: https://youtu.be/1wj2pa_VEd8
Keon Coleman: https://youtu.be/yne4bYOpCG8
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
*This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
TNF Preview...
-- Green Bay doesn’t have a quality win this season. Sure, they trounced Chicago--but that was the Tyson Bagent meltdown game. They mildly beat Dallas, escaped Jalon Daniels Tampa, beat the Jets in OT. They played OK against the Lions, but Detroit is no world beater. I will say Green Bay is playing better and better, but that was from starting in a deep hole.
Carolina hasn’t really had that great of a season to date either when I look at it deeper... they have a (3-3) record but don’t have any quality wins themselves. Beat non-Penix ATL. Beat the Lions (where GB did not). Beat Hurts-less Philly. It is impressive that they’ve hung in despite being the most injury-wracked team in 2026, but they really aren’t a top team, as thought they might be, in retrospect looking at their schedule/performance. They’re OK. They’re playing ahead of their situation. They could be good if they got everyone back who they are missing on the O-line and their CB duo.
This is gonna be a game of two mediocre/scuffling/scrappy teams where we will see if Green Bay can take advantage of the Panthers' #32 ranked run defense (in our metrics), or does the magician Dave Canales find a way to win another game they had no business winning because they’re missing so many players?
Green Bay’s either going to slow this down and win via Josh Jacobs back and the defense improving by the week, or Carolina puts GB on their heels because they decide it’s a good idea to throw to Tet McMillan more.
This will either be a Green Bay 17-7 type win... or a shootout of two sloppy teams that goes 30+ to 30+ and there’s FF goodness all over.
I know what side of that I want to see happen...
Various stats pertaining to this game:
-- Bryce Young coming off a loss:
12-0 ATS in his last 12 spots
Panthers +3.5 vs Packers
-- Chuba Hubbard:
Rushing success rate: 55% (3rd)
Outside zone:
5.32 YPC
39% of his rush att
Packers Run Defense:
Rush success rate: 48% (3rd most)
Yards after contact/att: 3.49 (3rd most)
Outside zone YPC: 5.68 (most)
-- Panthers enter the game missing these starters:
CB1
CB2
EDGE 1
EDGE 2
LT
LG
RT
-- FYI... 'trade chatter'...
I talked to a source about Cincy being in the Jonathan Taylor sweepstakes. He made me feel like there is a turn on Chase Brown happening.
Chase may be part of that deal, if it even were to happen. If Chase stays, then he’d be a lowly sidekick to JT.
Chase is a free agent at the end of the season. Cincy doesn’t want to invest in him as the future right now.
Two weeks ago, there was a whole cold-shoulder approach where they were gonna look at getting Samaje Perine more involved after Brown fumbled in a game, and there’s all these bad Chase rushing metrics/efficiency floating around that some may not take seriously (or know it’s not EVERYTHING to a story)--but the NFL takes any one metric very seriously because it makes things simple vs. complex to have an opinion.
The Bengals smell a division title and Super Bowl opportunity; they may pay up for JT to put an all-star offense together for a title run. If so, Chase Brown is toast... or a Colt, which is potential toast.
The vibe is down on Chase and Cincy keeps being mentioned as interested in JT by national rumor reporters.
I’m just relaying what I discussed with someone--and if there’s truth to it, those who have Chase Brown need to evaluate what to do, and it means Chase is not a ‘buy low’ candidate in FF right now because it could blow up in your face in the next 2 weeks.
-- Trade rumor you may not see nationally, but I have been told by a source...we’ll see if he’s right about it...
Denver is going to trade or cut JK Dobbins in the next 1-2 weeks. They want to open more space for Jonah Coleman...and Dobbins has a bad attitude about what happened with Coleman being put to #1 RB.
Dobbins heading to...NYG potentially.
-- Sports Cards Giveaway winners...
Contest winners, my plan is to start shipping out your cards this upcoming week as long as I don't get totally crushed with football action. When I ship them, I will e-mail you to let you know they're on the way so you can keep a lookout for them.
==Injury Center/Ward==
-- Davante Adams had successful clean out surgery on his hamstring and Rams are hopeful he will be back on the early side of the 6-10 week timeline per Sean McVay. Said Adams was walking immediately after surgery and called himself "Wolverine"
-- Dameon Pierce is heading to IR. Eagles RBs:
RB1 Saquon Barkley: Injured back/hamstring.
RB2 Tank Bigsby: IR
RB3: Will Shipley: IR
RB4 Dameon Pierce: IR
==Interesting Stats Center==
-- Target Shares by QB
Jameis Winston
1. Isaiah Likely (29.7%)
2. Malik Nabers (29.7%)
3. Malachi Fields (9.4%)
JJ McCarthy
1. Malik Nabers (28.6%)
2. Malachi Fields (20.4%)
3. Isaiah Likely (14.3%)
-- Denver on 3rd down this season:
#32 in yards per attempt (4.4)
#32 in completion rate (48%)
#32 in explosive play rate (4%)
#32 in share of plays gaining 7+ yards (23%)
#32 in success rate (33%)
-- @Ihartitz:
Most TEAM tight end PPR points this season:
1. Cardinals
2. Raiders
3. Rams
Rams tight ends individual ranks in PPR points per game:
-Tyler Higbee (TE24)
-Terrance Ferguson (TE31)
-Colby Parkinson (TE40)
-Davis Allen (TE45)
-- We’re 13 days away from the NFL trade deadline.
Here’s how many in-season trades were reported at each point in the countdown over the last 20 seasons:
13 days away: 6 trades
12 days away: 2 trades
11 days away: 3 trades
10 days away: 1 trade
9 days away: 0 trades
8 days away: 10 trades
7 days away: 14 trades
6 days away: 8 trades
5 days away: 2 trades
4 days away: 3 trades
3 days away: 1 trade
2 days away: 3 trades
1 day away: 18 trades
Deadline day: 58 trades
RC vs. Ross Coffee bets (through Wk7):
More targets this season...
31 = Raymond (RC)
25 = D. Swift (Ross)
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES ==
-- Bowles says Ted Hurst III’s routes are crisper and the team needs to get him the ball more.
Todd Bowles: “I think he's playing faster. He's playing a lot faster with a lot more confidence, and when you play with confidence, you play a lot faster and his routes are a lot crisper. We just gotta start getting him the ball a little bit more.”
-- JJ McCarthy pulled Malik Nabers and Malachi Fields aside after practice last week to work specifically on out and corner routes, according to Brandon London.
"This kid looks like he doesn't want to give up that QB1 title until he's forced to," London added.
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- You will laugh: https://x.com/MarceVann/status/2115428413196394628?a=TRRCLEbwet4gIB0_cgk&s=20
-- Waivers Night: https://x.com/Ihartitz/status/2115466207553896476?a=ZQJPIgRpqqNL0pzsAPI&s=20
-- Skatt and Harbs issues? *Language* https://x.com/NosebleedNFL/status/2115483511863775587?a=xSQpYSW2WH7ie_DqwIY&s=20
-- Weird Monster Mash item: https://x.com/oeufs_brouilles/status/2115283743703441672?a=AFAjUAPvN_glLQwaqhI&s=20
-- This is for who it’s for: https://x.com/EleetsRasslin93/status/2115543104866619895?a=QDgY6W0mualUBq2I1WM&s=20
-- FINALLY!!!! https://x.com/CoachspeakIndex/status/2115594175370629262?a=IXZDNgjVNFy1NqvHjO4&s=20
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.
10/28 WED (6:15amET)
Today:
-- Week 7 Game Reports
-- Week 8 Projections update
----------------
-- Two Scouts Talking YouTube Video
This past week/s:
Tremble/TJH: https://youtu.be/1iSevcxR_n4
JJ McMcCarthy: https://youtu.be/4ZKSVSeD6Es
Omar Cooper: https://youtu.be/hp7Ye87ubCM
Woody Marks: https://youtu.be/BtLIcmlu5oo
Dohnte Meyers: https://youtu.be/EEIw3IGX_zQ
Darius Cooper: https://youtu.be/1wj2pa_VEd8
Keon Coleman: https://youtu.be/yne4bYOpCG8
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
*This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
WAIVERS NIGHT REPORT (AI Report and Commentary)
Top 5 Adds by Position (Week 8 Waivers)
Quarterbacks
1 = Geno Smith, Jets (+19% Net Add Rate)
2 = Jacoby Brissett, Cardinals (+16% Net Add Rate)
3 = Kirk Cousins, Raiders (+14% Net Add Rate)
4 = J.J. McCarthy, Giants (+10% Net Add Rate)
5 = Malik Willis, Dolphins (+8% Net Add Rate)
Running Backs
1 = Jonah Coleman, Broncos (+44% Net Add Rate)
2 = Dylan Sampson, Browns (+36% Net Add Rate)
3 = Seth McGowan, Colts (+29% Net Add Rate)
4 = Tyler Allgeier, Falcons (+23% Net Add Rate)
5 = Will Shipley, Eagles (+18% Net Add Rate)
Wide Receivers
1 = KC Concepcion, Browns (+47% Net Add Rate)
2 = Omar Cooper Jr., Jets (+38% Net Add Rate)
3 = Ja'Kobi Lane, Ravens (+31% Net Add Rate)
4 = Caleb Douglas, Dolphins (+24% Net Add Rate)
5 = Antonio Williams, Commanders (+17% Net Add Rate)
Tight Ends
1 = Chig Okonkwo, Commanders (+33% Net Add Rate)
2 = Brenton Strange, Jaguars (+26% Net Add Rate)
3 = Hunter Henry, Patriots (+20% Net Add Rate)
4 = Jake Ferguson, Cowboys (+15% Net Add Rate)
5 = Dallas Goedert, Eagles (+11% Net Add Rate)
Defense/Special Teams (DST)
1 = Cincinnati Bengals (+29% Net Add Rate) - (Home vs. Tennessee Titans)
2 = Jacksonville Jaguars (+21% Net Add Rate) - (Home vs. Indianapolis Colts)
3 = New England Patriots (+16% Net Add Rate) - (Away at Miami Dolphins)
4 = Green Bay Packers (+12% Net Add Rate) - (Home vs. Carolina Panthers)
5 = New York Jets (+9% Net Add Rate) - (Home vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
Placekickers (PK)
1 = Chris Boswell, Steelers (+17% Net Add Rate)
2 = Matt Gay, Raiders (+13% Net Add Rate)
3 = Will Reichard, Vikings (+10% Net Add Rate)
4 = Chase McLaughlin, Buccaneers (+8% Net Add Rate)
5 = Brandon McManus, Packers (+6% Net Add Rate)
Top 20 by FAAB % Spend (Week 8 Waivers)
1 = KC Concepcion, Browns (24% Avg FAAB Spend)
2 = Jonah Coleman, Broncos (22% Avg FAAB Spend)
3 = Dylan Sampson, Browns (17% Avg FAAB Spend)
4 = Omar Cooper Jr., Jets (15% Avg FAAB Spend)
5 = Seth McGowan, Colts (13% Avg FAAB Spend)
6 = Chig Okonkwo, Commanders (12% Avg FAAB Spend)
7 = Ja'Kobi Lane, Ravens (10% Avg FAAB Spend)
8 = Cincinnati Bengals DST (9% Avg FAAB Spend)
9 = Tyler Allgeier, Falcons (8% Avg FAAB Spend)
10 = Brenton Strange, Jaguars (8% Avg FAAB Spend)
11 = Will Shipley, Eagles (7% Avg FAAB Spend)
12 = Geno Smith, Jets (7% Avg FAAB Spend)
13 = Jacksonville Jaguars DST (6% Avg FAAB Spend)
14 = Caleb Douglas, Dolphins (6% Avg FAAB Spend)
15 = Hunter Henry, Patriots (5% Avg FAAB Spend)
16 = New England Patriots DST (5% Avg FAAB Spend)
17 = Jacoby Brissett, Cardinals (4% Avg FAAB Spend)
18 = Antonio Williams, Commanders (4% Avg FAAB Spend)
19 = Kirk Cousins, Raiders (3% Avg FAAB Spend)
20 = Chris Boswell, Steelers (2% Avg FAAB Spend)
Top 3 Most Dropped by Position (Week 8 Waivers)
Quarterbacks
1 = Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers Mayfield's thumb injury lingering and high sack rate continue to kill Tampa Bay's offensive rhythm. With only two touchdowns against two interceptions over his last stretch and 13 sacks absorbed, managers dropped him across 10- and 12-team leagues.
2 = Bo Nix, Broncos Despite a high-scoring spike in Week 7, Nix faces a daunting home matchup against Kansas City's relentless pass rush. Managers sold high or cut him loose to pivot to streamers with safer weekly floors.
3 = Daniel Jones, Colts Jones failed to top 110 passing yards in Week 7 against Minnesota and has yet to log a multi-touchdown game this season. Entering a road test against Jacksonville, managers cut ties in bulk.
Running Backs
1 = J.K. Dobbins, Broncos Jonah Coleman dominated 50% of the backfield snaps and the vast majority of touches upon returning from his ankle injury in Week 7. Dobbins cratered to just a 21% snap share, making him an immediate cut in a low-volume committee.
2 = MarShawn Lloyd, Packers With Josh Jacobs fully returned to action and handling primary touches for Green Bay, Lloyd's path to standalone value vanished, reducing him to a deep handcuff that managers churned off benches.
3 = Keaton Mitchell, Chargers Mitchell has failed to top a 40% snap rate all season and has been completely overtaken in touch volume by Kimani Vidal, prompting managers to cut bait.
Wide Receivers
1 = Josh Downs, Colts Downs has seen his targets produce diminishing returns in Indianapolis' stagnant passing game, failing to reach double-digit PPR points over his last month as Keenan Allen and Michael Pittman absorb primary perimeter routes.
2 = Courtland Sutton, Broncos Sutton has seen his target tree dismantled in Denver, averaging under six fantasy points per game and yielding focal receiving looks to Jaylen Waddle and the tight ends.
3 = DeMario Douglas, Patriots With New England's passing volume heavily capping weekly receiver upside and Drake Maye leaning heavily on Hunter Henry and perimeter clear-outs, Douglas was cut to clear bench space.
Tight Ends
1 = Dalton Schultz, Texans (Bye Week) Houston enters their Week 8 bye with Schultz's weekly targets squeezed out by Marvin Harrison Jr. and Nico Collins, leading managers to cut him rather than carry a zero.
2 = Mark Andrews, Ravens Andrews has been utilized primarily as an inline blocking asset in Baltimore's offense, failing to see consistent targets and prompting standard-league managers to cut him for streaming options.
3 = Tyler Higbee, Rams Higbee saw his routes shrink following the Rams' bye and tactical shift toward multi-receiver sets, causing managers to abandon him for ascending volume tight ends like Chig Okonkwo.
Defense/Special Teams (DST)
1 = San Francisco 49ers (Bye Week) San Francisco is on bye in Week 8. In standard 10- and 12-team leagues, managers routinely churn middle-to-high-tier defenses to the wire rather than burning a bench spot through the bye week.
2 = Houston Texans (Bye Week) Also entering their Week 8 bye. Squeezed managers dropped Houston's defense to pick up streaming options like Cincinnati or New England.
3 = Carolina Panthers (Away at Green Bay Packers) Playing on a short week for Thursday Night Football at Lambeau Field against Jordan Love and Green Bay, managers who streamed Carolina previously dropped them in bulk.
Placekickers (PK)
1 = Ka'imi Fairbairn, Texans (Bye Week) Houston is on their Week 8 bye. Fantasy managers almost never hold a kicker through an off-week, resulting in an immediate wave of drops.
2 = Blake Grupe, Saints (Bye Week) New Orleans is also on bye in Week 8. Squeezed managers routinely dropped Grupe to secure active streaming legs like Chris Boswell or Matt Gay.
3 = Tyler Bass, Bills (Home vs. Baltimore Ravens) Bass continues to be churned across standard formats due to Buffalo's aggressive 4th-down conversion tendencies in scoring territory, which heavily cap his weekly field-goal floor.
-- TRADE: Seahawks acquired Quenten Nelson from the Colts in exchange for a 2027 third-round pick and a 2028 fifth-round pick.
In a league where I am now constantly saying that offensive line is everything...the defending champions still one of the best 3-5 teams in the NFL just went out and got one of the top ranked guards of the past two seasons for less than Marvin ******* Harrison Jr.
There's nothing more to say about the abject stupidity of the entirety of the NFL when Seattle can just pull this off when almost every top contender would have been upgraded had they made this acquisition.
-- TRADE: 49ers acquired DeForest Buckner from the Colts for a 2027 fourth-round pick.
Oh, and the other top team in the league just went out and acquired one of the best defensive tackles in the game for a fourth-round draft pick. A drop in the bucket compared to what it cost for Marvin ******* Harrison jr.
So, I guess the rest of the teams in the NFL are just gonna sit there with their thumb up their *** while the top teams in the league just stripped the Colts down to the bone?
I think they call it “the rich get richer.”
Is it because the smart teams are smart or because the dumb teams are so dumb that they make the other teams look smart? The world will never know
-- HEADLINE: Denver Broncos new depth chart has Jonah Coleman as RB1:
https://x.com/milehighAgenda/status/2115227513043693741?a=qXl992d2AoyWYybMvmo&s=20
-- Sports Cards Giveaway winners...
Contest winners, my plan is to start shipping out your cards this upcoming week as long as I don't get totally crushed with football action. When I ship them, I will e-mail you to let you know they're on the way so you can keep a lookout for them.
==Injury Center/Ward==
-- Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said “there’s a chance” Micah Parsons (knee) practices next week.
-- Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said the team is “still working through it” when asked if WR Matthew Golden (shoulder/foot) will play Week 8 against the Panthers. (Savion Williams upside hope for TNF)
-- NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports he expects Lamar Jackson (ankle) to play in Baltimore’s Week 8 game against Buffalo.
-- Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) was not spotted at Chicago’s Tuesday practice.
-- Giants GM Joe Schoen said the Giants will place Tyrone Tracy (hamstring) on injured reserve.
==Interesting Stats Center==
-- Wow!: https://x.com/PolymarketBlitz/status/2114718061446287398?a=QEp9tJ6jL87EuHZt8cw&s=20
-- @Ihartitz: Highest explosive rush rates this season...
1. Kenneth Walker (makes sense)
2. James Cook (yup for sure)
3. Ollie Gordon (hell yeah brother)
-- Chase Brown fantasy PPR points per game:
2024:
Weeks 1-7: 11.2 (RB30)
Weeks 8-18: 19.6 (RB6)
2025:
Weeks 1-7: 10.1 (RB34)
Weeks 8-18: 21.2 (RB3)
2026:
Weeks 1-7: 12.5 (RB21)
-- Makai: https://x.com/jlarkytweets/status/2115095316256931840?a=3pn9ZWEbqeLh1diFwXo&s=20
RC vs. Ross Coffee bets (through Wk7):
More targets this season...
31 = Raymond (RC)
25 = D. Swift (Ross)
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES ==
-- Giants GM Joe Schoen, asked about the future of the team’s quarterback position said: “To have two young guys with Jaxson and J.J., both talented players, it’s a good position to be in.”
-- Giants signed RB Gregory Desrosiers off the Chargers’ practice squad.
-- ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports the Colts could trade Josh Downs.
-- Bears signed RB Zavier Scott to their active roster from the practice squad.
-- Bengals placed Erick All (knee) on injured reserve.
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- Pitt Dad: https://youtu.be/9SMwGvAU7v0?si=bigboD8vVbKZZLA6
-- Eagles collapse: https://x.com/SharpFootball/status/2114911815994134764?s=20
-- More Eagles bashing: https://x.com/UnderdogNFL/status/2114916113750585481?a=9_790bRUMcvlGq_q580&s=20
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
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=====================
10/27 TUE (6:21amET)
Today:
-- W.A.R Report for Week 8 (Part II of II: more notes from research day and the Waivers, Deep Sleepers lists today)
-- Week 7 Game Reports
-- Week 8 projections debut
-- Week 8: Tuesday Night Waivers 8:30-10pmET
----------------
-- Two Scouts Talking YouTube Video
This past week/s:
Tremble/TJH: https://youtu.be/1iSevcxR_n4
JJ McMcCarthy: https://youtu.be/4ZKSVSeD6Es
Omar Cooper: https://youtu.be/hp7Ye87ubCM
Marshawn Lloyd (timely...): https://youtu.be/AMHGP2NF7Vs
Woody Marks: https://youtu.be/BtLIcmlu5oo
Dohnte Meyers: https://youtu.be/EEIw3IGX_zQ
Darius Cooper: https://youtu.be/1wj2pa_VEd8
Keon Coleman: https://youtu.be/yne4bYOpCG8
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
*This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
MNF First Reactions...
-- Lost my game bets here, so my positive ROI week’s streak of betting ends at four.
-- Dallas messed around with the Eagles for way too long here. These are bad teams...Philly due to injury, Dallas due to Jerry.
-- This Eagles loss should be the moment that they decide to sell everything off and start anew. Maybe they give it another week, but they likely go to Saquon, and others, and ask them if and where they might like to be traded.
Given Jalen Hurts’ issues, this may be a total strip down and multi-year rebuild.
Zack Baun, Rig Woolen (goes back to SEA), Dallas Goedert and even Jake Elliott are among the players that should/could be on the move.
-- Did you give up on Brandon Aubrey last week? I mean the best kicker over the last 3 years had a 2-game stretch low volume of FG attempts, so naturally you have to punish him right?
Well, he was this week’s #2 kicker in FF scoring for the week. #19 for the season in FF PPG, +1.0 PPG pts away from the top 10. The #9 PK since Week 2. He’ll be back towards the top 5 again in no time, I suspect.
-- Ross’s Makai Lemon belief paid off here with some heavy targeting finally and his first TD: 7-67-1/8.
He was a nice beneficiary of DeVonta out again. It’s possible DeVonta goes on IR and Philly starts releasing the Hollywood Brown types and goes to a younger group ahead. All which would benefit Lemon and Darius Cooper and whatever WRs they claim off team’s practice squads.
-- Sports Cards Giveaway winners...
Contest winners, my plan is to start shipping out your cards this upcoming week as long as I don't get totally crushed with football action. When I ship them, I will e-mail you to let you know they're on the way so you can keep a lookout for them.
==Injury Center/Ward==
-- The Rams have not decided on whether or not Myles Garrett or Terrance Ferguson will practice this week, Sean McVay says
-- Panthers placed right tackle Taylor Moton on injured reserve.
-- Kyle Shanahan said Christian McCaffrey has a “mild” hamstring strain.
-- Jeremiyah Love (ankle) is expected to practice on Wednesday.
-- Eagles activated Landon Dickerson (knee/pectoral) off injured reserve.
-- Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald declined to say whether or not Zach Charbonnet (knee) would play in Week 8 against the Bears.
-- Saquon Barkley said following Monday’s loss to the Cowboys that he “tweaked his hamstring on his first run of the game” and injured his back trying to play through it.
== Interesting STAT Center ==
-- Ashton Jeanty has:
More REC than Ja’Marr Chase.
More Receiving Yards than Justin Jefferson.
More Rec TDs than Chris Olave.
@Kyle_Odegard: Cardinals rushing numbers are a good example why some teams don’t use major resources at RB.
Bam Knight: 6.4 YPC
Jeremiyah Love: 3.7 YPC
Tyler Allgeier: 2.9 YPC
-- Kirk Cousins this season
Weeks 1-3 Weeks 4-7
661 Pass Yards 1,216
9 Pass TDs 7
3 INTs 2
3-0 W-L Record 0-4
RC vs. Ross Coffee bets (through Wk7):
More targets this season...
31 = Raymond (RC)
25 = D. Swift (Ross)
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES ==
-- Cardinals head coach Mike LaFleur said James Conner could “potentially” return this season.
-- Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak said “Kirk Cousins is our quarterback,” when asked about the possibility of making a change at QB ahead of Week 8.
-- Stefon Diggs’ workload should stay largely steady; Williams could see more targets and higher volume.
Dan Quinn: “Stef is doing well. Workload shouldn’t change as much. I think it’ll be others that would climb up more. Antonio Williams is one that you’d see getting more targets. So we’ll look through the week as we go, but I like Stef, especially on the options, the third downs, the things that he can do. And so I would say the natural progression is probably Antonio some more. Not necessarily at the same spot, but a higher volume.”
-- @TheSoloLopez: John Spytek let Dylan Parham walk in free agency.
He's the best run blocking Guard in the NFL currently and the 10th best Pass Blocking Guard in the NFL via PFF.
Spencer Burford and Caleb Rogers make up, arguably the worst guard pair in the NFL.
-- @FootballCravee: Cam Skattebo was asked about using guardian caps:
“I’d rather be retarded than look retarded. And obviously you know what I’m getting at.”
RC NOTE: I think the Giants will trade Cam Skattebo, and it possibly be as early as this week but more likely at trade deadline week. Injury risk. Big mouth risk. Attitude risk. And part of the 1-2 punch you have to remove If your Harbaugh) in order for JJ McCarthy to be Harbaugh’s future. Skatt to TEN for Pollard?
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- KW: https://x.com/NFLMemes/status/2114558298947203414?s=20
----------------------------------------------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
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*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
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.
10/26 MON (5:43amET)
Today:
-- W.A.R Report for Week 8 (Part I of II: notes Monday’s research day)
(early morningET) = Three things that gripped me from Sunday
(middayET) First batch of notes from research day
(eveningET) Last batch of notes from research day
Could be updates anywhere in-between all that. I’m going to try to keep it to three posts for the day for simplicity’s sake, but if a trade or major news items hit--we’ll go over it there. Could be BTJ trade day.
-- Week 7 TNF (CHI-NE) Game Report leads us off on game reports
-- MNF = DAL at PHI, the FFM Betting Discord MNF chat will be open.
----------------
-- Two Scouts Talking YouTube Video
This past week/s:
Tremble/TJH: https://youtu.be/1iSevcxR_n4
JJ McMcCarthy: https://youtu.be/4ZKSVSeD6Es
Omar Cooper: https://youtu.be/hp7Ye87ubCM
Marshawn Lloyd (timely...): https://youtu.be/AMHGP2NF7Vs
Woody Marks: https://youtu.be/BtLIcmlu5oo
Dohnte Meyers: https://youtu.be/EEIw3IGX_zQ
Darius Cooper: https://youtu.be/1wj2pa_VEd8
Keon Coleman: https://youtu.be/yne4bYOpCG8
--------------------------
NEW DISCORD NOTIFICATION SYSTEM/INVITE: FFM Discord Notification System
*This is not a chat room. It is a one-way channel for FFM notifications about newly posted items and critical breaking news.
== NEWS & NOTES & Xs ==
-- Sunday first/early data returns...
A decent week trending for a win-rate across all FFM tracking of various platforms. The W’s crapped out again en masse. But three RBs that FFMers have a good share of ruled Sunday...Tony Pollard was a sit-start conundrum that many who had him flipped to when Spears was ruled out...and he singlehandedly won some leagues this week. Bucky Irving is on a lot of redraft teams this year, and he was the #2 RB of the week. Josh Jacobs returning helped many who have had him in storage in Dynasty.
RBs coming through more than not. Colston Loveland’s rise. It was a week of ‘should I start these guys’ and if you did or were forced to by the byes...several snuck away with a weird-feeling victory.
FFM-land has SO much Brandon Aubrey...what he does tonight will tell the final tale. It looks like a solid but not special win-rate week across the board, not as good/high as the last two weeks but not bad for a bye week. A middling win for many, but you’ll take it.
The losses I’m seeing are the sad type, but what happens to all of us any given week -- the win was on the bench due to a sit-start choice that didn’t work out. If you're gonna beat yourself up for not starting, let's say, like a Tony Pollard who had his first real impact game and I don't know how long... If you think you were supposed to know that was about to happen, that the Browns would have such a weird start to the game and give Pollard this extra opportunity...then I don't know what to tell you.
The whole joy and pain of fantasy is trying to guess the sit-starts correctly. No one is ever gonna get them all right all the time on command.
SNF Game First Reactions...
-- When it comes down to it, the power in the NFL is in the NFC. My top 5 ‘gut feel’ teams from the tape usually contain 3 to 4 NFC teams each time.
-- Kansas City got embarrassed here. The Chiefs' last 4 games prior to this one were against the bottom-of-the-barrel type teams in the NFL, and the ‘decent’ bad teams they faced in there they barely escaped by a field goal (Indy and LV).
The Chiefs are good, in today’s NFL, and could go to the Super Bowl, no doubt...but they’d likely finish 4th in the NFC West if they were swapped into it with the Cardinals.
-- It goes without saying: And this is why you shouldn’t spend a bunch of payroll on a running back.
Seattle is winning/is a top team with RBs other teams wouldn’t consider for their 53-man roster.
The 49ers are probably just as good with Kaelon Black as CMC these days. It’s Mike Evans they cannot live without.
The Rams have a moderately priced Kyren Williams and a still-on-a-rookie-contract-deal Blake Corum split.
Seattle will run a split...SF is moving to a split...the Rams have a split...everyone is moving to a split, but KC is making a running back the centerpiece of their offense, and when it got taken away against Seattle, they have no great answer.
If KC was in the NFC West, they’d have the worst O-Line and 2nd-4th-best defense.
And I’m not slamming KC so much as showing—they don’t have what the NFC West’s more ‘progressive’ teams have for a setup.
-- The Chiefs are the only NFL team in the Super Bowl era to have a game with:
no 10+ yard rushes
no 20+ yard passes
no red-zone drives
no touchdowns
multiple missed field goals
-- Sports Cards Giveaway winners...
Contest winners, my plan is to start shipping out your cards this upcoming week as long as I don't get totally crushed with football action. When I ship them, I will e-mail you to let you know they're on the way so you can keep a lookout for them.
==Injury Center/Ward==
-- Gibbs: https://x.com/MaddoxMcCloudPT/status/2114501301996261607?s=20
-- A listing of some of the key injuries we’ll all be tracking this week...
.
Offensive Line
- Taylor Moton (RT, Panthers): Suffered a fractured left fibula against Tampa Bay and is out indefinitely, officially confirmed by head coach Dave Canales postgame. Moton faces an extended multi-week absence and is a prime candidate for injured reserve.
- Sean Rhyan (C/G, Packers): Sustained an ankle injury against Detroit when interior linemen rolled up on his lower leg. He was unable to return, and follow-up imaging on Monday is set to determine if high-ankle or deltoid ligament damage will keep him sidelined for Week 8.
- Jacob Monk (C/G, Packers): Suffered an acute quadriceps injury shortly after replacing Rhyan at center against the Lions and did not return. Exiting immediately with a muscle pull puts his status for this week in serious jeopardy, creating an immediate depth crisis along Green Bay's interior line.
Running Backs
- Aaron Jones Sr. (RB, Vikings): Exited against Indianapolis in the fourth quarter with a left knee injury and did not return. Given his history of knee/MCL sprains on that same leg, medical staff are testing for structural damage Monday, leaving his Week 8 availability completely up in the air.
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB, Giants): Exited Sunday against Houston due to a left hamstring pull and did not return. Soft-tissue hamstring strains carry heavy reinjury risk, putting him in doubt pending MRI confirmation.
- Cam Skattebo (RB, Giants): Pulled up with a non-contact hamstring injury on a 42-yard run in overtime against Houston and went down immediately. With Tracy and Skattebo both tweaking hamstrings in the same game, the Giants' backfield health is under severe watch.
- Christian McCaffrey (RB, 49ers): Briefly retreated to the locker room in the first half against Atlanta with a thigh injury. Though he played through it in the second half, thigh and quad contusions typically see significant swelling and stiffness by Monday morning, making his practice participation and Week 8 workload one to track closely.
- Kenny Gainwell (RB, Buccaneers): Suffered a hip injury against Carolina and was ruled questionable to return before sitting out the second half. His upcoming status will depend on whether this is an acute hip pointer or labral/groin-related issue.
Wide Receivers
- Rashid Shaheed (WR, Seahawks): Sustained a knee injury during the first half against Kansas City and was quickly ruled out for the rest of the game. He is undergoing imaging on Monday to evaluate the joint and determine if an IR stint is required.
- Jaylin Noel (WR, Texans): Suffered a turf toe injury against the Giants and was seen leaving the stadium in a walking boot. While Houston has a Week 8 bye to buy recovery time, turf toe severity (Grade 1 vs. Grade 2/3 tear) will dictate whether he misses time when Houston returns to action.
- Drake London (WR, Falcons): Exited to the blue medical tent against San Francisco for a concussion check. While he returned late in the contest, players undergoing in-game head evaluations are monitored by team physicians on Monday for delayed symptoms that could force entry into the five-step concussion protocol.
Key Defensive Starters
- T'Vondre Sweat (DT, Jets): The starting defensive tackle exited Sunday’s divisional game against Miami with a knee injury and was officially ruled out. Monday MRI results will dictate whether he faces a short-term sprain or extended absence.
== Interesting STAT Center ==
-- Rookie WRs with at least two 100+ yard games in their first three career games [Since 1985]
+ OMAR COOPER JR.
+ Puka Nacua
+ Stefon Diggs
+ DeSean Jackson
+ Amari Cooper
+ Will Fuller
-- Rams RB touches this year:
Weeks 1-5:
Kyren 97 Corum 45
Weeks 6-7:
Kyren 31 Corum 29
-- @doug_clawson: The Vikings are on fraud alert:
* Played 3rd-easiest SOS so far (.390 opp win pct)
* Play hardest SOS in next 4 weeks (.731 opp win pct)
* Face top 3 offenses and top 3 QBs in terms of EPA in next 4 weeks (DET, BUF, SF)
RC vs. Ross Coffee bets (through Wk7):
More targets this season...
31 = Raymond (RC)
25 = D. Swift (Ross)
== QUOTES & QUOTABLES ==
-- Quote of the year candidate: John Harbaugh is “killing mosquitoes with an axe” says Mike Tomlin, referring to the NYG coach benching Cam Skateboo for fumbling last week and releasing Najee Harris after the player questioned his opportunities. He’s making an example of them to underscore his authority with new team.
-- The #Giants played the #Texans today without their Week 1 starting ...
QB (Jaxson Dart)
C (John Michael Schmitz)
EDGE (Brian Burns)
MLB (Tremaine Edmunds)
CB (Greg Newsome)
S (Jevon Holland)
Their two offensive tackles (Andrew Thomas, Jermaine Eluemunor) are playing hurt. They started their third quarterback of the season (JJ McCarthy).
They beat Houston as 10.5-point underdogs.
Think Eluemunor said it best: "It says a lot about the players, but it says even more about the coaches. Having someone like Coach (John) Harbaugh who instills confidence in you 24/7.
"We had a tough meeting after the Saints game, but for everyone to come back, bounce back from that take it on the shoulder, come out here this week, and play the way we did, it was huge."
-- Garrett v. Geno: https://x.com/MySportsUpdate/status/2114438229164208544?s=20
-- @4WhomJBellTolls: Houston traded for Marvin Harrison Jr., got Tank Dell back healthy, have Jaylin Noel breaking out, and still have Nico Collins.
So naturally they are scheming plays for Xavier Hutchinson on the game deciding drive.
Your moment of Zen for this day...
-- We’ve all been on both ends of it: https://x.com/FFMikeKash/status/2114411191397404791?s=20
-- BRAVO Mr. Rodgers: https://x.com/DesireeAmerica4/status/2114449953116631127?s=20
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