- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Panthers 23, Falcons 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Make it three in-a-row for the team I so wanted to bet the ‘over’ win total (5.5) on but I chickened out…just a light/fun bet not a serious one. I should’ve gotten serious. Matt Rhule has taken a leaky defense, a suspect O-Line, a free agent QB, and Mike Davis and has become a playoff/division contender in just five games into his rookie head coaching season with limited preseason/training camp 2020 COVID era prep.
Three wins in-a-row now…and the Panthers were ‘in it’ in their first two games/losses to the final 5 minutes or so. Imagine what Rhule is going to do in another year or two? Imagine what he might do this season? This team is getting better every week. If they go and beat Chicago this week (6)…then everyone is going to take them seriously. We see the Panthers hitting 7-8 wins for the season, but 9 (and a wild card) is on the table.
The loss to Carolina stung so bad the Falcons fired their coach over it. I mean, a change was needed but this team was playing decent ball early in the season and were dealing with several key injuries right from the jump. I don’t think this firing was warranted, but a change needed to happen -- so why not now? The GM should’ve been fired first and let Quinn see if he could turn things like he did last year, when his key players came back from injury – but people have had enough and so a change happened.
It’s not a good change…it’s just a change. O-C Dirk Koetter has been a bad coach for years, and he’s still there…so not much will change as he coaches his final season in Atlanta. He’ll surely be fired with the new administration coming in. Houston needed a break from Bill O’Brien, but I don’t know that Quinn gone is going to make this team perk up – I bet they get whacked this week.
Atlanta could be an underdog in every game the rest of the season and maybe win 2-4 games. The veterans will start mailing it in/not coming back from injury as fast and this thing will swirl down the drain further.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- A tale of two QBs…
Teddy Bridgewater (27-37 for 313 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) played his sharpest game of 2020…he’s only getting better, more comfortable as he goes…which is bad news for the rest of this division. A division with aging QBs not getting any younger/better. Teddy’s numbers are starting to rise as he becomes a viable FF QB on matchups.
Matt Ryan (21-37 for 2266 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) is fading away. He’s back to his jumpy/hurried, uninspiring self. No longer the garbage time swashbuckler he used to be. The owner is noncommittal on him as his QB of the future – so basically his employer just disrespected him, so now Ryan will respond to that.
How will he respond? He’ll start playing safe football. No more waiting in the pocket too long. He’s going to throw dump passes and bombs and not care whether he wins or loses as much. Why try hard when your boss was just fired, unceremoniously and the owner just dissed you?
The real reason Ryan will reel it in – he is set to make $40.9M next season…that’s not a typo. He can get paid $40.9M to play, or $49.9M if he gets cut. He’s going to destroy their cap in 2021, a reduced overall cap for the league in 2021, one way or the other (staying or getting cut). If Ryan is cut, he will have made over $150M+ in salary/pay along from his time in Atlanta. He’ll be 36+ years old next year. Why would he want to continue on in the NFL? Unless he loves the locker room and would enjoy being a backup for pocket change (for him) deals – we might be seeing the total end of Ryan’s career in 2020.
He looks terrible right now, so what NFL team will want (in 2021) a ridiculously overpaid for his career QB at the end of his skills with little motivation beyond ‘hanging on/hanging around’…i.e. the Philip Rivers’ story? The Dallas Cowboys should be on the phone right now for a 2020 run…but they may not be all that much better with Ryan over Andy Dalton. Kyle Shanahan might be on the horn right now...
Ryan is going to fade away and take some fantasy scoring down with him. All his throws will go to Julio and Ridley, and randomly everywhere else.
-- Todd Gurley (14-121-1, 4-29-0/5) is getting a boost from fading Ryan because he gets more dump passes and run opportunities as they try to limit their Ryan exposure in the offense.
I just wonder if the first player traded this next few days/week is Todd Gurley? Why would they keep him through his one-year deal? That thought means Brian Hill (6-39-0/11) could be a shock main starter soon.
If you believe that, now is the time to stick him on the back of the bench and see what happens.
-- Mike Davis (16-89-0, 9-60-1/10) looks like he has at least one more week of starting before Christian McCaffrey returns. Three thoughts on Davis…
1) Is Davis really going back to being a nobody when CMC returns? CMC’s touches may be down a bit upon return.
2) The Bears signed Davis to a nice deal last year, and then cut him outright midseason. Does anyone blame/question Matt Nagy? Nope, the Bears are (4-1), so all is well/above rebuke today.
3) Davis couldn’t find work last year, but Todd Gurley makes all the money? Who would you rather have for your NFL backfield today? Let’s handout more giant RB contracts NFL…they really make a ton of sense.
The Panthers are really dying without McCaffrey (they are 3-0 without him this season).
-- It’s not showing in the fantasy scoring, but Curtis Samuel (4-28-0, 5-36-0/5) has been wonderful for the Panthers in his new role. He’s shown to be a legit runner of the ball as a tailback…a tough as nail runner for his size. He’s making reliable/tough catches as a WR. He made the key block to spring D.J. Moore’s long TD this game.
He’s been an unsung hero for this team. He’s been OK/WR3-4 for fantasy. He’s useful among the deeper Flex options, he’s due for a TD, but I don’t see great FF consistency coming any time soon and when CMC returns – he’s done at RB.
-- D.J. Moore (4-93-1/5) took a little dump pass and was off to the races for a 57-yard TD aided by that Samuel block. Outside of that play – 3 catches for 36 yards on 4 targets otherwise. DJM is not a major part of this passing game. Both Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel are getting more/better looks or touches.
I’d try to trade Moore hot off this event, and while his name still holds appeal.
-- Hayden Hurst (2-8-0/6) had decent targeting and he was open for one TD at least, but Ryan misfires to him often. He and Hurst are not in any sync, and I’m not sure they ever will be this season.
-- Falcons LB Foye Oluokun (14 tackles, 1 TFL) has averaged 8.5 tackles per game this season. AND he’s only played two full games as starter (not starter Wk1, hurt/left early Wk2).
-- CAR rookie DB Jeremy Chinn (9 tackles) has made at least 7 total tackles in every game this season and is averaging 8.8 total tackles per game.
-- Very quietly the Panthers defense is moving into the middle of the pack in many defensive categories…and now the #4 pass defense in yards per game allowed. The problem is they are #31 in the NFL with only 5 sacks – they aren’t creating any chaos for FF numbers. They have the least QB hits in the league so far.
But they’ve held three decent offenses to 17.7 PPG the last three weeks (Herbert-Kyler-Ryan). They are starting to get more pressure/numbers the last few weeks. Week 6 vs. CHI might not be too awful for FF.
Week 14 they have DEN, Week 16 they are at WAS…we might be using them in the FF playoffs.
Snap Counts of Interest:
63 = Zaccheaus
48 = Ridley
40 = Gage
36 = Gurley
20 = Br Hill
51 = DJ Moore
48 = Samuel
47 = Robby A
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Rams 30, Football Team 10
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Well, I had a great week of handicapping overall…best of 2020 season…but my best bet of the Football Team +9.0 blew up in my face. My only loss on my Blazing Five.
What happened? Well, I’m not sure if it would have mattered…but once Kyle Allen went out – this one was over. Alex Smith was not ready. It’s not like TFC was looking that good prior. The rain then began to fall harder with Smith’s arrival, which only exasperated things.
The Rams were just smarter, better executed, and the Rams defense was tougher than Washington’s much of the game. Quality win on the road, in the rain for a Rams team I thought would fall flat and struggle in this spot.
The Rams can put the 49ers out of their misery for 2020 by beating them this upcoming week. If the Rams lose Week 6 at SF, they allow the 49ers to get back into the race and drop the Rams down within striking distance. We project the Rams to 9-10 wins right now.
Washington is just a game out of 1st-place…but they also only have one win on the season and have lost four in-a-row. They have NYG-DAL-bye-NYG the next 4 weeks…if they can win two of 3, they could be (3-6) and maybe tied for 1st-place. They have three winnable games after that with DET-CIN-DAL. Seven wins will win this division but I’m not sure Washington can get there. We see 5-6 wins more likely.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- It wasn’t much better with Kyle Allen (9-13 for 74 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT) starting over Dwayne Haskins, but it was better. Allen played under control, safe…not like the walking turnover known as ‘Haskins’.
Allen was playing small ball – short, safe dump passes and trying to run clock and take small bites to get downfield. Not taking sacks or throwing picks. It’s better than what they were doing.
However, once Alex Smith (9-17 for 37 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT) entered then everything changed for the worse. It might be Smith is rusty, how could he not be, or it could be that Smith is ‘done’ and it’s a nice story that doesn’t matter in the end or ‘end well’.
Smith was truly awful here. Jittery. Throwing passes to short receivers anytime he could. When he had to throw deep later in the game he seemed like he was closing his eyes and over and under throwing all over. He looked dreadful. The rain wasn’t helping. Smith was sacked 6 times in a half+ of play.
Washington is down to Kyle Allen as their only hope. In this era of abundant QBs…how did this happen? He’s Rivera’s guy from the Carolina days, and all those losses late last year that got him fired – Allen was the QB/author and now is his choice to turn this Washington mess around. Good luck with that.
-- I’m already sick of hearing it, but I know it’s going to get worse every day this week…the chatter about Sean McVay wanting to get more touches to Cam Akers (9-61-0). Straight from McVay’s mouth post-game.
All I can say is – take McVay at his word. And where do you think those touches are coming from? From Darrell Henderson’s (15-38-1, 3-30-1/4) account, that’s where.
Thanks Darrell…it’s been swell. I’ve got to go.
I’ve got to turn on you, even though I don’t want to. A lot of FF teams are burned by BYEs and everything else this week…there’s a potential market for a live human RB (DHendo) with some hope…you might be surprised by the trades you can make. I’m shocked at some of the first ones I’ve seen…dealing DH for helpful WRs (I saw a straight deal in redraft for Justin Jefferson already among other similar level names) or DH mixed into multiplayer deals.
Akers looked good in his late-game mercy carries against a water-soaked, defeated Washington defense…so, that means Akers is ‘the man’ now. I’m not going to bother analyzing it, complaining about it, or wishing it weren’t true. I’m taking McVay at his word backed up by his actions with Henderson for the past two years.
-- Washington RB situation is evolving…
Antonio Gibson (11-27-0, 5-24-0/5) is starting to run out of steam. The rookie excitement wearing off and revealing just a decent, over-his-head RB getting 10+ carries a game and not rushing for a ton of yards but you hope he somehow scores a short TD. We got a lot of those type RBs in FF right now.
What is starting perk is J.D. McKissic (1-3-0, 6-46-0)…the new James White, or the old Chris Thompson for Washington – like back during that one stretch where Thompson PPR-back’d his way to RB1 levels for several weeks on giant catch counts/output.
McKissic has seen 8 targets in each of his last two games and caught 7 and 6 passes in each of those games.
With Kyle Allen, and the bad Washington O-Line…the best play they have is Allen looking downfield for a second and then tossing it short to McKissic. J.D. is on the verge of becoming their Christian McCaffrey-lite, as I’ve mentioned the past two weeks – undersized runner with the heart of a dragon, very elusive, and great hands ready for all the dump passes they want to throw at him.
You could do worse looking for BYE week help in PPR. He could be a 7-10 catch, 50+ yards and hope for a lucky TD guy ahead in this Kyle Allen offense.
-- All tight ends are terrible in fantasy except like 2-3 of them. Three terrible ones played in this game…
1) Tyler Higbee (2-12-0/2) is dead. Not been used legit in the passing game all year except in little bursts here and there. No strong purpose or regularity. Gone was the chance that he continued his late 2019. Most TEs are busting/disappointing except Kelce and Waller, and Kittle in that one game…so, most of us were going to be scrambling for TEs at this point anyway. It’s time to write off/replace this particular asset.
Yes, as soon as you cut him he will catch 8 passes for 125 yards for some other team and you’ll fly into a rage. But what else are we to do here? His target counts are: 3-5-2-3-2 in his five games. Are you kidding me?
2) Logan Thomas (1-4-0/4) was viable for a moment but the moment’s gone. Died after Week 2. I knew it would.
3) Higbee’s fall is not because of Gerald Everett (4-90-0/4). Everett’s catch counts prior to this week were: 1-0-2-1. That’s not a real plan. You take advantage of Washington’s linebackers with the TE, and the Rams did…with Everett…not Higbee.
-- Strong effort by the Rams-DST here. Three more weeks of opportunity before it’s time to bail most likely. At SF, CHI, at MIA the next 3 weeks before a Week 9 BYE. Then the schedule ramps up after the BYE: SEA, at TB, SF, at ARI, NE, NYJ, at SEA through Week 16.
-- Washington-DST is so erratic and disappointing but they’ve played good offenses/QBs the past four weeks. Their schedule ahead is money in at least two of the next four weeks…if not three of the next 4 weeks.
Week 6 = at Dan Jones
Week 7 = v. Dalton
Week 8 = BYE
Week 9 = v. Dan Jones
Anything against Daniel Demise is a good thing for DSTs.
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = McLaurin
42 = I Wright
31 = Inman
23 = Gandy-Golden
30 = Gibson
27 = McKissic
56 = Higbee
30 = Everett
29 = DHendo
26 = M Brown
13 = Akers
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Saints 30, Chargers 27 OT
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I kept thinking, last night as the Chargers let a win get away…the Chargers are too good to be (1-4). AND, I also thought…thank God for Anthony Lynn coming through for my ‘under’ 7.5 win total bets in the preseason. My top two bets for over/under win totals…LAC under 7.5, NYG under 6.5 wins…it’s money right now. Now, I just need Houston to win 7 of their final 11 games to complete my ‘hat trick’ (not going to happen).
This is the Chargers in 2020… Better than the other team because of their QB, but Anthony Lynn is cursed – he finds ways to lose games like a Fantasy owner on a bad sit-start decision streak. Michael Badgley doinked the game-winning FG off the post…or everyone would be hailing Justin Herbert and burying Drew Brees today. Two OT losses this season for LAC. Four losses in-a-row, all games they were the better team and should’ve won.
I’m shouldn’t be counting my money yet on the Chargers ‘under’ 7.5 wins – they could easily win their next five in-a-row (JAX, at DEN, LV, at MIA, NYJ), but they have two tough road trips in there…the two toughest road trips in the NFL in COVID 2020. We are projecting LAC to 7-8 wins, so my bet is still up in the air. I should lose this bet with the early turn to Herbert, but my bet was a lot on Anthony Lynn (and his Tyrod), so as long as he is there…I like my chances.
The Saints have the opposite issue. They are (3-2), lucky not to be (1-4) right now and losers of 4 in-a-row. Drew Brees is fading away slowly, softly, but still good enough to take advantage of other team’s mistakes. This is by far the worst looking Saints team in years, as Brees is fading away and Michael Thomas is becoming a locker room cancer (and they have a few others too).
I don’t know where the Saints will end up in the end…division winner, wild card, Final Four…but I know they are not getting to or winning a Super Bowl with this team – which means this current group never will get there. It’s over. Good but not good enough the past several years, and also very unlucky. The clock is about to strike midnight on the Saints. The Panthers and Bucs are the future of the NFC South, and the future is now – had the Saints lost…the Panthers and Bucs would be ahead of them in the standings.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Everyone thought ‘Josh Kelley’ (11-29-0, 1-9-0/1) but the right answer to the ‘winner’ of the Austin Ekeler injury is Justin Jackson (15-71-0, 5-23-0/6). Jackson started and was clearly the better back here.
Jackson is the RB to own now until Ekeler’s return, but be wary of this depleted O-Line, and then JJax will be in that complementary role with Ekeler after. Huge blow to Kelley’s FF value here. You thought you had an RB1-2 on your hands after Weeks 1-2…now, he will be cut soon in redrafts, when/if Ekeler is back.
Kelley has run the ball 28 times for 79 yards (2.8 ypc) the past three games. How many of us got caught in rookie RB hysteria? Not just on Kelley, but overall?
Kelley has been dying since Week 3.
Antonio Gibson fading off.
James Robinson falling asleep.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire…fantasy semi-bust since Week 2.
Jonathan Taylor not getting the right touches on a bad offense.
D’Andre Swift…boring.
J.K. Dobbins…buried.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn…why did anyone think he’d get past RoJo?
Zack Moss…not taking over for Singletary.
Cam Akers…3rd-best Rams RB?
Did I tell you or did I tell you (at CFM all summer) that the power of this 2020 Dynasty Rookie Draft was trading it away? Now look…you could acquire any of these RBs for a small or large discount off what they were going for in August or after Week 1. I wanted Bryan Edwards in the 2nd-round…and he’s available for half-price now too.
Some of these rookie RBs will be fine, but there’s always a rookie euphoria…and then the magical unicorn bubble bursts and they are just regular old RBs not as good as the backup RB in Carolina that the Bears just didn’t see any value in last year when they had him/cut him because magical unicorn rookie David Montgomery had a cool stat from PFF that proved how great he was.
The NFL gets sucked in…we all get sucked in by the rookies.
-- The rookie we all should’ve been sucked in by is Justin Herbert (20-34 for 264 yards, 4 TDs/0 INTs). I tried to get all of us in on him the past 2-3 weeks, as the price went higher and higher. Some of you got in, others couldn’t extract him. I was hoping he’d have a so-so MNF game to bring the heat down…ummm, no.
No sense shopping for him now, the price is maxed out. Just like with Chase Claypool, you missed your window. You have to wait impatiently to see if you’ll get another one.
I’ll keep saying it – he’s better than Joe Burrow. And I didn’t think that would be possibly in January-August. Nothing against Burrow, who is great as well.
Many FFM teams got radically upgraded the past few weeks with cheaper investments into Chase Claypool and Justin Herbert – you bought stars who will transform your redraft teams now and transform your Dynasty to come.
Some just sat and watched and thought there was still time.
Time’s up. You missed it.
You can’t get every player recommended, but my recommendations were pretty lofty and enthusiastic here. When you email me about how Tyler Higbee sucks, note I’m giving many ‘fixes’ ahead of time along the way at all positions. We can afford to drift/die at TE if we have a killer QB, stud WRs, stable/deep RBs, and great DST schedule streaming with great depth overall (Claypool and Herbert on most people’s benches this past week). Many FFM-based teams scuffled out of the gates and hopped on the right trains/waivers/deals Weeks 3-4-5 and are starting roll. That’s why I pleaded for no panic off a tough start – we often ‘feel’ are way through the early part of the season finding hidden gems before everyone else and they just need a minute to blossom. If you've been with me for years, you’ve been through the race like this many a-time. This is the time we shine…as we go. Let more hands of poker be dealt and we’ll be fine.
-- One of our top ‘buy lows’ of last week -- he was a late/midweek entry I proposed -- Hunter Henry (4-23-1/8). He ruined his ‘low’ part of the equation with a TD here. A few, not many, got him last week…and I think you’ll like it because things with Herbert are going to be good…and Henry chief among them.
In a world where the TE group is dying from star names collapsing and many one week wonders breaking your heart as you race in a week too late off their sweet game the week prior…Henry + Herbert works for me. You might have missed the window of good value to acquire in trade now. Wait a week and see if he doesn’t score a TD next week. With TEs, if you score a TD in a week…you’re a god among TE options now. There’s Kelce, Waller, and #3-12 TE1s for the week will be finding the ‘who will score a TD’ guy.
Jimmy Graham and Eric Ebron now are in play, somewhat coveted, sadly.
-- Speaking of things better with Herbert…Mike Williams (5-109-2/8) got active and just made himself a top waiver wire guy of the week in some leagues. Who thought he would even play this week?
I don’t know that this even happens if Keenan Allen (2-29-1/2) doesn’t get hurt. If Allen is down for just a week, I’m trying to buy low on Allen. If Allen is out long-term, then Mike Williams is going to work by attrition.
If Allen is fine…Williams is back in play, but I think at-risk of being a bit player with Herbert where Allen-Henry will shine more. I didn’t see the same relationship with Williams as I did Herbert-Allen. Williams got lost in coverage for the most wide-open TD (64 yards) of 2020…or this Williams stat line might have been very ‘meh’ with one TD and no hyper-enthusiasm. Now, because he got 100+ and 2 TDs on national TV…he’ll break the bank in waivers in many leagues this week.
I’m wary of Williams as being a B-C grade option (with Keenan healthy) that is now a temporary ‘A’ because ‘national TV/2 TDs’ just happened. Depending on Allen’s healthy/outlook…I might sell this Williams thing hot.
-- I sell immediately on Emmanuel Sanders (12-122-0/14). As soon as Michael Thomas is back, everything changes back. It’s like what will happen in Green Bay when Davante Adams returns.
Sell Sanders.
Drop Tre’Quan Smith (2-8-0/3) and never speak his name again. I think Smith and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are the same person, in the same boat. Useless but pop up every 4-5-6 games with a TD and people get excited. Have moments when the star WR is out but are nothing when the star WR is in…even in a ‘good’ matchup.
Rookie Marquez Callaway (4-43-0/6) could move past Tre’Quan soon…but will also not matter for any FF consistency.
-- I drafted Jared Cook (2-52-1/3) to be my Tyler Higbee insurance in case what is now happening (him getting ignored/not following up on 2019) happened. But Cook is showing troubling signs as well. Just 3 targets here and thank the Lord one of them was for a long TD.
Cook is as good/bad as any non-Kelce/Waller TE but he’s also showing some troubling target trending. May be OK once Thomas is back.
-- The Saints-DST has been terrible and led by Marshon Lattimore (6 tackles) suddenly getting beat by all comers/not the lock down guy of the past. It may be that Lattimore is more hurt than he is letting on.
Whatever it is…there’s also a very tough schedule so far at play as well. After their Week 6 BYE the schedule eases up a bit. The Saints may get healthy and a schedule break all at the same time for Week 7.
-- The Chargers-DST looked great for about a half here and then couldn’t hold off the Saints offense from coming back. The Chargers play about two quarters of great defense and then start falling apart. It’s a very good unit and when they get Chris Harris back, things might fall into place.
Week 6 = BYE
Week 7 = JAC
Week 8 = at DEN
Week 9 = LV
Week 10 = at MIA
Week 11 = NYJ
You could use the LAC-DST from Week 7-11 with some or great confidence.
-- LAC LB Kyzir White (15 total tackles, 1 TFL) is on total fire in IDP since becoming a starter Week 2…10.8 tackles, 0.4 TFLs, 0.2 PDs per game for White since becoming a starter. Potentially going to lead the league in tackles despite barely playing Week 1.
Snap Counts of Interest:
65 = Guyton
55 = MK Williams
35 = KJ Hill
12 = Keenan Allen
05 = Tyron Johnson
42 = JJax
25 = JKelley
59 = Tre’Quan
52 = Callaway
45 = Emm Sanders
42 = J Cook
28 = J Hill
20 = Taysom Hill
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Steelers 38, Eagles 29
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
If I were a Steelers fan…I would start getting nervous.
The Steelers are undefeated but they’re lucky they’re not (2-2) at a minimum on the downside. Consider that they just played two of the worst operating teams in football right now in the past two weeks (HOU and PHI), and they had to come from behind late to win both games.
Week 3 against the Texans, Houston was the better team and Deshaun Watson looked pretty good for half+ of the game. That’s a ‘sign’ because Watson has looked pretty bad all season…but not against the Steelers.
Week 4 against the Eagles, the Steelers got up two+ scores and then let the Eagles/Wentz waltz right back in and gave Philly chances to win.
The good news…the Steelers find a way to put the hammer down and win. The bad news…the Steelers just beat three bad teams in-a-row (and scuffled with NYG opening week as well), struggled with all of them (DEN-HOU-PHI) and now go on to play better teams. Fortunately, for the Steelers, they play a 4th home game in-a-row Week 6…but against a suddenly VERY motivated Cleveland – and the return of Myles Garrett to face Pittsburgh. There’s going to be fighting going on in that one.
The Steelers are making bad QBs look good, and average WRs rack numbers. There’s a problem brewing here. The next three weeks will tell the tale – CLE, at TEN, at BAL. We are tracking the Steelers with 9-10 wins and a wild card at this point.
The Eagles fall to (1-3-1)…a half-game out of 1st-place in the NFC East. They face Baltimore this week to fall to (1-4-1), I’m sure. Weeks 7-8 hosting NYG then DAL will tell the tale of the Eagles season. The schedule ahead is pretty rough. We’re starting to track Philly for 5-7 wins this year, but closer to 5-6 wins…which puts them ‘in the thick of the race’ for the NFC East.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Obviously, we have to talk about Chase Claypool (7-110-3/11, 3-6-1). Six things…
1) I told you so.
It always feels good to type that. Our highest-rated 2020 WR prospect for the NFL Draft on College Football Metrics. Not our top-rated rookie WR for fantasy 2020…I thought he’d be too ‘blocked’ for the season by the very good starting trio.
He was too good to sit…kudos Mike Tomlin.
A couple weeks ago, I made the proclamation that we all needed to acquire him, grab him, whatever to get him on all FF rosters of Dynasty/Redraft and just sit on him. Those that did, now reap your rewards.
If I was right about Claypool…and I’m going to be right about Bryan Edwards and Devin Duvernay and Michael Pittman (other top WR prospect grades) – don’t lose sight of another WR we graded right up there at the top with Claypool – Denzel Mims. He's in a different/bad NFL situation, so I’m not as FF-excited…but sometimes the talent cannot be contained…as we are learning in Pittsburgh 2020.
2) This only happened because Diontae Johnson (1-0-0/1) got hurt early.
We must note the Diontae thing because after the game, Mike Tomlin rushed out to say that any of his WRs could have had that game…it was about matchups. It’s never the player, it's always the coaching, you see!!! Claypool could be a 50% snap share #4 WR Week 6. Consider that before trying to amend your sin of missing out prior by moving heaven and earth to get him this weel. I wouldn’t chase him this week at today’s prices. Let him have a down week and then see if you can weasel in.
As fast as Justin Jefferson rose…now the bloom is off the rose after a down week on national TV Sunday Night. It could happen with Claypool after a non-4 TD week or two.
As far as Diontae goes. He took a weird hit and got hurt legit, but this is becoming annoying with Diontae…and Mike Tomlin may start getting annoyed. Tomlin/Ben could think -- who needs Diontae when Claypool is a star. The rise of Claypool off the back (injury) of Diontae probably just chopped the legs out from under Diontae the next few weeks. The rising star, the giant targets…Diontae may see lesser targets ahead to give more to Claypool.
I’m not sure of that theory…it’s just thinking out loud.
3) Lost in all this – this could’ve been even more from CC…
Claypool made a terrific 33-yard catch along the sidelines, but he didn’t get his second foot down in time.
Claypool caught a 10-15-yard pass in this game, pushed the defender away and raced for a 42-yard TD. It was called back because of CC’s pass interference. It was the right penalty call, but in a season where formerly touchy penalties called are now legal in 2020 – it was almost another TD and 40+ more yards.
It’s silly to even do the fuzzy math, but for fun…imagine if these two catches stood and he went 9-163-4/12, 3-6-1)…5 TDs in a game ‘off the bench’?!!?!
4) Claypool…Ben’s new favorite?
I mention the ‘almost’ targets/catches above because I need to also mention – this was not a ‘matchup’ win/issue that sprung CC. This was Ben either attacking with Claypool or desperately throwing to Claypool even when other things were open in his field of vision…eschewing even an open JuJu a couple times in the end zone.
The past three games for PITT:
11 rec. (18 targets), 222 yards, 4 TDs = Claypool
15 rec. (18 targets), 129 yards, 1 TD = JuJu
10 rec. (16 targets), 83 yards, 0 TDs = Washington
Is it Claypool is a Ben fave? Is it Diontae gone so all the Diontae action over to his replacement? I think it’s that Claypool is now a Ben fave. Even if Claypool goes to the #4 WR spot…he’ll play a lot of snaps and be targeted nicely. Meaning, we can start him now for FF…with hold your breath confidence that Tomlin won’t screw him when Diontae is back.
5) The Fantasy Experts’ New Favorite WR!!!
Now, I get to be tortured this entire week. Tortured by FF analysts proclaiming their love and how ‘this is real’ and how ‘they always liked him’. I get to win/gloat here for a day and then watch as everyone takes credit for discovering him and showing you all kinds of acronym analytics as to why their system knew Claypool was going to be good all week.
Note, most of this will come from people who suggested Claypool move to tight end because he wasn’t a real good receiver in their scouting estimation.
All this will happen as I weep into my pillow quietly each night. A prophet is never welcome in his homeland.
6) What Happens Now…?
I suspect Claypool will be a #4 WR Week 6…but play a heavy amount of snaps. I hope I’m wrong about that, but I’m preparing like it will be so.
Week 2, when all PIT WRs were healthy…Claypool played 37% of the snaps, Washington 48%...Diontae-JuJu 80%+. That was when Claypool was still a ‘babe’. Diontae-JuJu-Washington will likely start Week 6, but Claypool will be in quickly and play more snaps than Washington Week 6, is my bet. And within a few weeks…Claypool will be playing starter snaps whether he starts or not.
If Diontae is out/hurt for Week 6 – Claypool will start and lead the team in targets/touches at WR again.
Claypool is too good to sit…unless Mike Tomlin is a Sean McVay-like fool, and you have to account for that. But this is beyond obvious for Tomlin. Don’t be surprised if JuJu Smith-Schuster is traded to the Jets or Eagles before the deadline.
-- Helping the Claypool valuation not get 100% in the FF-universe is the fact that Travis Fulgham (10-15-2/13) was huge (statistically) in the same game. It makes it seem to some that this game was just wacky and ‘who can you trust’ among these ‘outta nowhere’ WRs?
I know Chase Claypool. I scouted Chase Claypool extensively. I rated Claypool top of his class. You, sir…Mr. Fulgham, are no Chase Claypool.
Fulgham is a randomly solid NFL WR worker who had a terrific game. A couple things about this event:
1) Fulgham is not going to force Doug Pederson to sit Reagor-Jeffrey-DJax when they return. Nor is Wentz going heavy Fulgham when he has them + Dallas Goedert back.
2) Fulgham really played well here. He made some very nice catches in this game. He gave himself an NFL career of some sort with this tape. Nice job by him. My first thought of him, when first scouting his work at Old Dominion (and I thought his starting WR teammates were as good/better)– solid+ hands, professional-ish WR, lacking in NFL starter athleticism.
3) The Steelers have a huge problem on their hands if Travis Fulgham (via Wentz of all things) is going off on you. Specifically, Fulgham burned Mike Hilton repeatedly.
The Steelers went from top 10 in pass defense to #15 in yards per game allowed in a week – but understand that they’ve faced Daniel Jones, Jeff Driskel, fallen-Deshaun Watson, and Carson Wentz. I don’t think this pass defense is as good as people think. Part of the glory is the QBs they’ve faced so far.
-- What happened to Zach Ertz (1-6-0/6)?
You think you’re dying at TE ion fantasy? Who is doing well? Kelce and Waller on a consistent basis…Andrews and Kittle and Jonnu on a sporadic basis. You better hope Robert Tonyan is not going to expire too fast (spoiler alert: he probably will…like all the ‘of the moment’ TEs).
Jimmy Graham is looking better and better, no?
It’s a tough year at TE in Fantasy. Ertz has died…9 yards and 6 yards in a game the last two weeks…playing 95% of the snaps each game!!! What???
Making things worse…I saw Ertz open a few times in this game, in Wentz’s purview, but he threw to Fulgham in a tight window instead. The Ertz-Wentz love affair seems to be out of sync/over.
I’d get Dallas Goedert cheap and hope he returns Week 7 to be the old Ertz (and then Ertz maybe gets traded).
-- We live in a TE depraved world in 2020 where Eric Ebron (5-43-0/6) is a better ‘start’ for FF Week 6 than Zach Ertz.
We live in a universe where I am actually thinking those thoughts, and I HATE ERIC EBRON (as a player). Any TE port in a storm/anything is better than Tyler Higbee right now.
-- Quick note: Anthony McFarland (3-6-0) only got three touches here but showed a fresh spark running the ball…like he’s gotten over his initial nerves.
I’ve been pro-McFarland as a scout, then anti because he’s a knucklehead (talented knucklehead). I was dismissive of him here in Pittsburgh because Conner-then-Snell is the pecking order.
Well, I think I saw some early ‘Darrell Henderson’ runner attributes in McFarland here in this brief appearance (and he can be that kind of back). Very hidden, very stealthy…but I need more tape to get more excited. I’m shifting from dismissive-to-neutral/curiosity piqued on McFarland. In part, because I know Snell isn’t great and if/when Conner goes down…McFarland might seize a bigger role than I first thought. Very deep sleeper thoughts.
-- Big Ben (27-34 for 239 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) is pacing for a career highs in…
Comp. Pct. at 69.9%
TD passes per game (2.25 per game).
BUT…it’s an 8-year low in passing yards per game (254.0).
Ben faces stiffer competition ahead in CLE-TEN-BAL…and the schedule gets great after that (except for another BAL matchup).
-- Miles Sanders (11-80-2, 2-19-0/4)…
I debated putting him on the ‘sell high’ list this week. He should be on at some level for the week. Sanders had a nice 74-yard TD run in this game…and 10 carries for 6 yards otherwise.
It’s too crappy an O-Line situation for him to thrive. Minus the long TD run, he has 52 yards rushing on his last 23 carries. BAL-NYG next two weeks is ROUGH.
Oh, the long TD…aided by the most obvious downfield holding of 2020, but it’s 2020 so it’s legal.
-- The Steelers-DST scares me, what I’m seeing, but…
Besides Week 8 at BAL and Week 12 at BAL…they have a smooth path of opponents until Week 14 at BUF. It’s an awesome schedule. Tennessee-DST might be a decent pairing with them later in the season.
-- The Eagles-DST comes into play now with Dallas having a QB change. The Eagles defense has been decent this year, but Weeks 7-10 they have NYG 2x and Dallas. The Giants and Jets are the juiciest matchups of any week for any defense.
Snap Counts of Interest:
57 = JuJu
53 = JWash
52 = Claypool
06 = Diontae
15 = Snell
05 = McFarland
48 = Hightower
46 = Fulgham
41 = Ward
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Cowboys 37, Giants 34
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I thought I had this upset in the bag, early on. A quick 14-3 lead for NYG, playing energized ball…as the Cowboys were sleepwalking again…and then the next thing I know Dallas leads 24-20 with a TD right before the half.
The Giants kept getting on the verge of taking the lead but couldn’t quite get there in the 3rd-quarter. Then Dak went down and started hurriedly pointing at his leg. At my first glance of it as it was happening live…his calf looked weird, but I wasn’t sure if a pad or something was out of place or was his bone out of place in his calf area…I couldn’t process it in the first few seconds in. What was wrong? Then they did a close up on Dak grabbing his leg to move it and his foot was pointing the other direction almost – and then you knew this might cost him a year or more. Sad.
But being a heartless fantasy player and bettor…I instantly felt better about my NYG bet and any FF teams facing Dak for the week. Too soon? OK, I’m the only one who thought that way…OK, I’m the bad guy.
*Side note from this game: When Dak went down, everyone was rightfully concerned and saddened. I wanted to commend one Jason Garrett.
Jason Garrett, NYG O-C, former long-time Dallas HC…he went over to be near Dak during the time Dak was being tended to on the field. When it became obvious to everyone that ‘this was bad’, there was a moment of Garrett (standing next to Mike McCarthy) leaning over and patting McCarthy on the back in a moment of sympathy.
Two opponents on the field this day, but also McCarthy being the ‘new spouse’ married to your ex…the guy who replaced you in your top job as you took a demotion to another team (but all still millionaires, so -- how bad could it be?) – it had to be a bit awkward. But Garrett knew this was a bad moment for Dallas and McCarthy from a coaching perspective, and all that weirdness was set aside in a nice moment of compassion for his fellow man in the middle of a tight ball game involving these coaches all under fire for various reasons. Nice work, Mr. Garrett. Now, please get Evan Engram the ball more and I’ll give you a hug as well.
Dallas escapes with a win and jumps to a commanding lead of the NFC East at (2-3) but now has to try and close the deal this season with Andy Dalton. Probably not going to happen, but any team could win the NFC East. We are projecting Dallas for 6-7 wins…which seriously could win the division.
The Giants could’ve won and been a half-game out of 1st-place, and then a Dwayne Haskins-ing of Daniel Jones away from winning this division. The best defense in the NFC East may reside with NYG not Washington. Drafting Daniel Jones is going to cost this team 2020 and 2021, as they stick by him for ‘reasons’. If they’d offer a 1st-round pick in 2021, for a 2nd-round pick + Jalen Hurts…and then install Hurts as a starter to change the offense to ‘like the Ravens’ and relieve the pressure on the O-Line – they might compete for the NFC East this year…but they are stuck with Danny Demise (ohh, I just thought of that as I was typing…dibs on the trademark!!!)
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Dak Prescott is not only in jeopardy for the rest of 2020…he’s going to miss a lot of 2021 prep and maybe be really rusty, not ‘right’ for a portion of 2021 (if that ankle injury was as bad as it looked). This could affect the Dallas players related for FF for more than this ROS.
What happens now with Andy Dalton (9-11 for 111 yards, 0 TD/0 INT)?
First, Dalton is a solid NFL backup. You can win games with Dalton…but you’re putting his faded-skills into a situation with a corrupted O-Line and a terrible coaching staff and terrible defensive plan. He’s not a miracle worker. He’s not Nick Foles. Fantasy things are going to suffer.
Watching his 11 throws in this game and trying to make assumptions – we’ll not get any clues to the future. He was either throwing quick hitters against a soft zone or last minute prayers being answered by Michael Gallup. Or the other type throw was near-pick six quick hitters. But, overall, Dalton looked competent with good arm strength.
However, Dalton can’t be Dak. I’m not sure Dak could keep being Dak…their games got so crazy it set up a perfect storm for crazy FF numbers Weeks 1-4. The WRs/TEs will have to take a hit over time/as we go you’d think. But let’s just say Dalton is 70% of Dak…then the following assumptions:
Amari Cooper (2-23-0/4) goes from strong WR1 to weak WR1, possibly more high-end WR2…a #10-18 WR scorer in PPR.
CeeDee Lamb (8-124-0/11) goes from strong WR1.5 in PPR…to possibly a strong WR2 PPR name. The most typical Lamb outcome in a game this year has been 5 catches for 50-80 yards and no TDs. What’s he worth if he’s getting 4-5 catches for 40-70 yards and limited TDs? He’s not a TD producer…he’s a higher-end Russell Gage/Greg Ward event of being the slot WR and being in the biggest output volume passing game in the NFL. Now, it’s not going to be the biggest output passing game…will Lamb continue to thrive in it? He won’t die, but his name/output right now is ahead of his reality going forward (thus he was my #1 ‘sell high’ for this week).
Michael Gallup (4-73-0/4) was on his way to another terrible FF event, but two late miracle throws/catches saved his FF day late. He’s the worst option for Dalton – the deep ball connection. They will be a random event together. Gallup has five games played in 2020 and 4.5 of them were pretty FF-sad/him ignored/a decoy. How does that change with Dalton?
Dalton Schultz (1-6-0/3) fell back to reality in this game as it was. Now, he’s facing a situation where the offensive fireworks are going to dip to some degree…and it won’t help him as a beneficiary of all the WR attention by defenses. Your TE1 hope here may have just dried up and went to TE1 heaven.
Ezekiel Elliott (19-91-2, 14-14-0/2) is going to be fine, as always…but maybe a bit less fine. He’s about to play with the worst O-Line and QB he’s ever had to play with…and the worst coaching staff. No-Dak is not a boon to his output upside.
-- Andy Dalton is better than Daniel Jones (20-33 for 222 yards, 0 TD/0 INT).
About anything is better than Danny Demise (trademark pending). Watching this tape is masterclass in how not to play quarterback in the NFL. Actually, it’s a cautionary tale – if your QB is constantly backpedaling, fading backwards on his throws even when there isn’t much pressure (in NFL terms)…if you never see him stepping forward into throws in the pocket – you know you got a major problem. It’s the problem I saw with him at Duke, and it’s here in full HD now. Sure, he can throw a 3-step drop, no-look slant/quick hitter and look good/zippy. He can make a throw scrambling because no one is in front of him to scare him most times. But, unfortunately, for him and Sam Darnold and Dwayne Haskins and all the other failed QBs in history…you can’t always roll-out on every play.
In the 4 games since Saquon has been gone, and Saquon was the thing that took heat off Danny to have less pressure, Jones has 0 TDs/3 INTs passing in those 4 games…and all passing games under 250 yards in games, half of them under 190 yards.
It’s time for the Giants to put on big boy pants and make the tough decision, but this was the owner’s decision to draft Jones…in part, because Eli and Peyton recommended him. It’s over. https://youtu.be/TfAYz6p-mlw
Because it’s over, but no one will admit it…we have 11 more weeks of this mess. You have to adjust accordingly for FF…
Darius Slayton (8-129-0/11) – nice, promising WR…sell high off this event. Schedule rough the next five weeks. This is a nice week to sell off.
Sterling Shepard/Golden Tate – don’t even bother with.
Realize we’re talking about the Giants as the single worst passing game on the NFL planet since Saquon got hurt. Not a ‘bad’ passing game…it’s devoid of output. You’re trying to get a slice of a pie that’s all crust, no filling.
…which is why, I sadly have to part (kinda) with Evan Engram (2-9-1, 1-16-0/2). I am demoting him to TE2. There’s still some usefulness in that he’s an explosive starting NFL TE, but my days of thinking he can be a top 5 fantasy TE…that died when Saquon died which forced Daniel Jones to die. Engram is now downgraded to erratically ‘useful’. I’ll be starting Jordan Akins most places this week over EE.
The thing is, Engram scored a TD here…off a running play. He also scored a TD off a slick fake punt, but it got called back for nonsense. They stole a TD/6pts from us, because that’s how my fantasy weeks are going this year…watching near-miss TDs and real TDs called back for penalty for 10 hours on Sundays. It’s ‘fun’!?!
If Engram is going to play in a high scoring game with a bad pass defense opponent and get two targets…buh-bye. If he got 5-6 targets a game, it’d be OK. But Daniel Demise is the bubonic plague of NFL passing. The worst contact tracing ever. Engram gets exposed to the illness every Sunday.
-- I’ll walk back my Devonta Freeman (17-60-1, 2-27-0/3) mocking from a week+ ago…although, I did say he just might be rusty. Devonta looked much better this week, obviously he just needed some time to get up to speed.
Now, he’s also an RB on the worst pass game ever…so, he has limited upside. But the way they are talking about him – you’d think he’s Jason Garrett’s Ezekiel Elliott. I’m not going to fight delusional coaches.
Wayne Gallman (5-24-0, 2-0-0/2) popped in and provided a spark but was quickly removed so as not to make the signing of Freeman look even worse than it is.
Freeman is the one to own now.
-- I’ll hand out another apology…Jaylon Smith (14 tackles, 3 TFLs, 0.5 sacks), who I often mock, played the RB passing game very well this game. It’s almost like he knew the plays were coming. And you can’t convince me that a Princeton grad O-C like Jason Garrett would ever be so dumb as to use the same exact plays he always does/always used in Dallas that Smith would’ve seen ten thousand times the past five years and known where to be/what to do most times by the pre-alignments. That could never happen.
-- If someone used Kyler Fackrell (3 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT/TD) this week in a deep IDP, and he helped win you a game with his pick six…and we helped you by keeping Fackrell’s memory alive the past year or so, and it paid off here – let me know so I can enjoy the little things in life!!
I really like Fackrell’s game. I love the way this NYG defense can work…just Dan Demise is providing zero support for it to keep gelling/emerging.
-- This NYG-DST had Dak playing his worst (statistical) game of the year and they got a pick six and they looked like they were about to get their first win, but then a bunch of prevent garbage yards/FGs happened late and made it look worse than it was (also note one score was a Dallas D TD). This was another small step for this defense…it’s a good unit, I swear.
Ahead for NYG-DST:
Week 6 = Kyle Allen
Week 7 = Wentz/the bad O-Line
Week 8 = Tom Brady
Week 9 = Kyle Allen/Alex Smith
Week 10 = Wentz/the bad O-Line
It’s a deep sleeper play to consider the next few weeks.
Snap Counts of Interest:
37 = D Freeman
12 = Gallman
64 = Gallup
42 = Amari
36 = Lamb
21 = N Brown
15 = Wilson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 5: Game Analysis: Bears 20, Bucs 19
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
First things first…I think this game outcome definitively proves Nick Foles is the better quarterback in NFL history over Tom Brady, amitire? https://youtu.be/6eX3fiQLo84
Foles just never got the real shot in the league that Brady did.
Jokes aside/as far as this game really went…
The Bucs led 13-0 with two minutes left until halftime, and it looked like the Bucs were cruising, but the Bears then scored two TDs in the span of 1:12 and actually led 14-13 at halftime. All the teams could do was exchange FGs in the second half, no TDs scored, and the Bears hitting the game winning FG late to win 20-19…as Tom Brady is still awaiting his 5th-down opportunity to try and win the game.
Re-watching this, it’s so obvious Brady thought his bad 4th-down throw at the end was 3rd-down, and there was still a down to go…as he never left the field, held up four fingers signifying it was 4th-down now (right?) but everyone else was leaving the field…it was over.
Because it is 2020, and every public figure and everyone on social media and everyone in the press has to lie about everything. Brady lied/didn’t answer a direct question about it and Bruce Arians lied and said Brady knew. Wouldn’t we all love and respect and empathize with Brady if he had admitted…”I thought it was 3rd-down. My bad.” His career speaks for itself. Instead, he lies to us.
All the credit in the world to the Bears, because I thought Tampa would ‘work’ them and that the Bears wouldn’t have the backbone to fight the aggressive Bucs – but this win may have been a turning point, a stake in the ground on the Bears not going down easily in 2020. And it’s all because they have Nick Foles captaining the ship. He provides ‘hope’ for the entire team.
Both QBs were under pressure (same amount of sacks, and both hit about the exact amount as well), but Foles handled it way better than Brady, because at this stage of their careers/in the year 2020 – Foles might be the better QB under stressful situations. Look at the Comp. Pct., the money throws, and the final score – Foles was pretty damn good under the circumstances…not a starter from day one, doesn’t have the weapons the Bucs have, and he lost his very good starting center in-game among any number of other things.
Chicago is now a shocking (4-1) with a winnable game at Carolina Week 5, but the Panthers are now playing for the playoffs! We project the Bears with 8-10 wins this season, with 9-7 most likely for our models…after winning this pivotal game with TB. This game outcome could really matter later if these two teams are into tiebreaker situations for a wild card or seeding.
Tampa Bay is now (3-2)…the Jekyll and Hyde of the NFL. One week they look like Super Bowl contenders, the next week sloppy and seem lucky if they can get a wild card. The Bucs play a season-pivotal game Week 6 hosting Green Bay. Win that game, and everyone is back on-board. Lose that game and everyone will start calling for the Brady demise, which might be justified.
It just seems to me that Arians-Brady-Gronk-the defense…it’s all being pulled/coached/executed in different directions, and they just ‘hope it all works out’, but sometimes it does and too many times it doesn’t’ -- Brady is running the team, while Arians to trying to pretend he does. Probably a lot of up and down all year with this group…and maybe they gel as they go. Week 6 v. GB is huge for them to define their season (up or down).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- We have to talk about Tom Brady (25-41 for 253 yards, 1 TD/0 INT)…actually, we need to talk about his throws/targeting preferences.
We need to talk about it in the context of why Scotty Miller (0-0-0/0) was the Bucs leading WR in yardage in 2020 coming into the game, and seemed to have a great connection with Brady…and with Chris Godwin out here, Brady not only didn’t throw to Miller – he didn’t ever glance/look his way the whole night.
Takeaways on the Bucs receivers and their connection with Brady this game/after 4 weeks…
1) There is no connection with Brady and any one receiver.
There is nothing close to Brady+Edelman here. And I’ve written about this before, the reason Brandin Cooks and Josh Gordon and Chris Hogan, etc., etc., never came through big with Brady in recent years was that Brady just doesn’t ‘make’ those other receivers anymore. He’s a random event thrower and he’s losing his touch a tiny bit month-by-month.
There’s a reason Belichick let him walk, essentially.
I’m not saying Brady is Philip Rivers bad/’shot’ now…but nothing looks cohesive yet in this passing game. It’s impossible right now how to predict where Brady is going/looking at with any consistency for FF game-to-game.
2) Mike Evans (5-41-1/9) is Brady’s TD guy…he’s leading the league in receiving TDs, but other than that it’s been a weak/erratic connection between the two. When they get close to the end zone, then Brady starts to remember Evans is on the team.
It’s been a bunch of 1-yard TDs and balloons floated out to Evans…hoping for a landing. They’ve connected for 6 TDs so far this season, four of them from 1-2 yards out, and if you ignore the six short TD passes/connections then Brady-to-Evans has resulted in 16 catches on 29 throws in 2020…for a feeble 55.2% connection rate.
3) I have no explanation why Scotty Miller didn’t even get a bubble screen or anything…just note, it should frighten you on using Miller with any confidence going forward. Brady basically forgot him like he was a 4th-down play at the end of a game.
I was so impressed with the way Brady was forcing/working Miller the prior two weeks, but I’m taking my ROS projections way down on Miller next week. It was a giant nothing this week.
4) No matter what -- Brady is trying to get Gronk (3-53-0/6) going. I think Gronk is a low end TE1 threat in some games ahead, just because Brady IS trying to make that work. Even if it isn’t open much.
For Gronk’s part, it looks like he is starting to loosen up and is moving around better now than in Weeks 1-2. There is some FF-hope here, as Brady leans on him like a crutch…but there’s also risk. Why?
4) Per the TV analysts, they mentioned Brady has been lobbying to get Cameron Brate (5-44-0/6) on the field…that he likes him a lot. Well, we hear that kinda stuff and it goes in one ear and out the other…but note that Brate caught a TD pass last week and then had 6 targets this game with O.J. Howard gone.
But extra-note: The one guy Brady was forcing things to, leaning on, had some cohesion with – was Brate…and only Brate here. I was shocked to see it.
The rise of Brate throttles back any rise of Gronk for FF, and probably vice-versa. But Brate has my attention after watching this tape. My main takeaway from this game, the mark left on my soul…there’s something to watch between Brady-Brate. I won’t bet heavy on it, because Brady had it with Miller and abandoned it -- but the Brate thing is on my radar. Not a fluke random event here for Brate.
5) Rookie WR that I love, Tyler Johnson (4-61-0/6), looked great but I know two things will happen from here after this sweet mini-breakout.
a) Johnson goes straight to the bench when Godwin returns.
b) Brady isn’t making a receiver like Johnson viable consistently. Tyler Johnson is kinda FF-screwed until Brady moves on.
-- Ronald Jones (17-106-0, 3-19-0/5) put down more tape that says he’s a better NFL RB than Leonard Fournette again. No way Jones is losing this job. I think Fournette will become a 3rd-down type back and they run them as a 60/40 duo, but unless someone gets hurt…the other isn’t going to be ‘the man’.
People still think, and fueled some more by this loss, that Fournette is going to take over as starter – it’s never going to happen unless RoJo starts fumbling or gets hurt. Jones is better than Fournette – get with the 2020 times we live in! *I am saying that to myself to make sure I don’t try to think otherwise. But I’ve been on team RoJo since the jump, sadly for me…as a universal Fournette holder/trader away of for weeks.
-- On the Bears’ side, I only have one offensive FF note…
I mean, it was the same Bears team we’ve seen all year. Foles is gritty. Allen Robinson is awesome. David Montgomery sucks (10-29-1, 7-30-0/8) but got to fall in the end zone and catch dump passes that he could not do anything with, but God Bless him, he caught ‘em.
The only note is – Darnell Mooney (2-15-0/5) didn’t further any breakout hopes here. You could see the raw talent and he is going to have his days, but this passing game is Allen Robinson and everybody else randomly happening, for now.
-- The real star of the game for Chicago, besides Foles…the Bears-DST.
This looked like a ‘bad matchup’ on paper, but after getting down 13-0, they bowed up and shut down the Bucs. Tampa Bay only scored 1 TD all game.
At CAR, at LAR aren’t bad matchups the next two weeks either. Not great, but not bad. The Bears-DST schedule is filled with OK matchups ahead, not any ‘easy/great’ ones on paper.
They might play like a DST1, but their schedule might force them to fringe DST1 or high-end DST2.
-- The Bucs-DST was on the verge of a great night early on, almost an INT return TD…another INT wiped off for a penalty. Three sacks on Foles. It wasn’t terrible. This defense is very promising and loaded with talent…more talented than the Bears, easily.
If people drop them Week 6 for their matchup with GB, maybe grab them for Week 7 at LV, and for sure for Week 8 at NYG. Tampa Bay has the kinda defense you can plug & play in most situations, even so-so ones – they’re aggressive and maybe the #1-2-3 most talented defensive unit that I watch every week. But they are very erratic…but that’s most NFL defenses anymore in the 2020 Arena League style play.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = ARob
41 = Mooney
26 = AMiller
17 = Wims
15 = C Patt
04 = Ginn
60 = Evans
56 = Tyler Johnson
45 = Scott Miller
57 = Gronk
33 = Brate
16 = Hudson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Saints 35, Lions 29
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
After the Sunday games end, I start putting together a tentative board of the games just played to prioritize what games I want to analyze first and second and so on for the upcoming week. I rank them by the games I see the most questions/revelations, general FF-interest in and go from there.
As I put the Week 4 board together, sliding the games back and forth into buckets and ranks…the Saints-Lions game started at the bottom on the first pass, and stayed their on the second pass, and never budged from there as the week unfolded – the least interesting, least things to learn game of the week was what I thought it would be, and now that I’ve re-watched it – it was just that.
Consider what just happened here, and it’s breathtakingly bad for Lions fans…
1) The Saints walked into this game missing two of their best players…Michael Thomas and, more importantly, Marshon Lattimore. Not to mention their other starting CB (Janoris Jenkins) was out among other Saints players banged up. This was a wounded, depleted Saints team going into Week 4.
2) At the same time, the Lions started getting back injured corners and their ace WR returned to action last week. The Lions health-o-meter was on the rise, and they defeated Arizona last week to make a stand for the 2020 season.
3) The Lions looked sharp and jumped out to a rapid 14-0 lead. Watching it live, I was thinking – the Saints are too wounded, I knew this would happen, why did I pick the Saints in this game? It looked like a bloodbath was underway.
It was.
4) The Saints then scored the next 35 points over the next two quarters, and shut down the Lions as they went. The Lions scored a couple of meaningless TDs with under 6 minutes to go to make it look semi-close, and Detroit actually had a chance late (down one score with 4+ minutes left)…but ‘it’s the Lions’, so of course they didn’t come back.
Spotted a 14-0 lead, at home, facing a wounded Saints defense and ever-increasing rickety Drew Brees without he favorite WR and TE – the Lions then got blown right out of their own building.
You know what the 2020 season will be known for, looking back? The downfall of all the Belichick assistants who were desperately grabbed as head coaches. Will the NFL ever learn?
Nope.
Brian Flores (1-3)
Matt Patricia (1-3)
Joe Judge (0-4)
Bill O’Brien (0-4) *Fired already
You think any of these teams are headed to the playoffs or ‘in the right direction?’
There’s not much to learn here for Fantasy because this was a game unlike these teams will have ahead. The Saints won’t be missing all their corners and Michael Thomas. The Saints will change back to a Thomas-based offense and the Lions will continue to suck…that’s the short version. Here’s the longer version of things I noted:
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- So, the Saints have been struggling a bit on defense coming into this game as it was – allowing 23, 34, and 37 points Weeks 1-3. In this game, that same defense was missing all it’s starting cornerbacks. This should have been an air raid on them.
Given that context, Matt Stafford (17-31 for 306 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) only completing 54.8% of his passes is an utter embarrassment. He got numbers late to salvage it for FF.
How can anyone have any faith in this offense for Fantasy? You only have ‘garbage time’ hope. They want to run the ball with power behind a hundred-year-old running back they picked up off waivers…the passing game is a last resort.
Four weeks of results, plus having this very favorable matchup, we can determine the following on the Lions’ offensive players for 2020 FF…
1) Matt Stafford is not a QB1. He can have QB1 moments in garbage time, but he hasn’t been all year until here. His stellar 2019 for half a season…gone. No carryover to 2020.
‘Time’, this new era, has passed the Lions offense by.
2) Marvin Jones (1-9-0/2) has all but been ignored for four games with/without KG there, with/without a good matchup (on paper). He’s dead to me.
Why is it that I hate older players my entire FF career, but then watch them defy age over and over, so I adopt them in 2020 to use at WR this season, as middle round value picks in redraft – and now they all get old and suck?
RBs get better with age.
TEs are desired with age by NFL coaches.
QBs are going to thrive until age 50.
All 30+ year old WRs potentially suck/can’t keep up with the new breed.
…this is the mantra playing in my mind right now. Whether true or just me being a baby.
3) If the offense sucks/is overrated, then any slick T.J. Hockenson (2-9-1/4) hopes by people are misguided. I never liked him anyway. Now, he’s the poster child of the Lions…not athletic enough, overrated from day one, useless for FF.
4) D’Andre Swift (4-22-0, 4-30-1/4) is Theo Riddick 2.0 in this offense.
5) Kenny Golladay (4-62-1/8) will be fine but not as glamorous as we might have hoped. I mean, if he can’t destroy the Saints backup CBs, at home, in a dome in a game Stafford throws for 300+ yards…then when is he blowing up? Still, he’s the guy to own.
My goal is to purge my redraft rosters of all Lions, except Golladay. I’m chasing into the Bills and Chargers and Bengals players instead, to catch the new wave of passing games to find FF numbers from hidden places.
-- Drew Brees (19-25 for 246 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) looks increasingly worse than ever, but he’s still very good…just not ‘great’ anymore (and I worry what it will look like in December+). But he’s fine now…and better than Matt Stafford for the NFL, but for FF…we’ll see.
The Saints have smart, savvy offense…the Lions do not. That’s the difference. Brees is carried a bit by his surroundings some, Stafford is held back.
-- The Saints’ WR report…
If Michael Thomas is out, Sanders-Smith can be FF good. Once Thomas is back, they are all useless.
End of report.
-- No Jared Cook for this game, on top of all the other NO injuries…and the magical unicorn rookie TE Adam Trautman (0-0-0/0) played 19 snaps and had no targets.
Backup TE Garrett Griffin played 22 snaps, and honestly…I thought he was out of football.
-- Is it me or does it seem like every time the Saints try to use Taysom Hill (3-6-0, 1-8-0/1) for something he fumbles or messes it up in some way this year?
Hill has fumbled in each of his last two games…and he only gets 3-4 touches in game anyway. He’s run the ball 10 times for 33 yards this year…3.3 ypc.
Like with many players I see nowadays…that huge new contract seems to have slowed him down/taken away the aggression a little bit. Just my theory.
-- NO DE Romeo Okwara (3 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 4 QB hits) had 4 QB hits in this game and registered his second sack in his last 2 games. He’s a really good pass rusher when given the playing time. 7.5 sacks in 2017 as a part-time player for DET. He started this game and responded nicely.
Snap Counts of Interest:
27 = AP
23 = Swift
11 = Kerryon
47 = AK
29 = Latavius
62 = Tre’Quan
51 = Emm Sanders
15 = M Callaway (had his 1st NFL catch)
14 = Deonte Harris
10 = Fowler
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Vikings 31, Texans 23
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Bill O’Brien deserved to get fired after this game…but the defensive coaches should’ve gone with him. Houston had one of the worst coached, worst planned game plans I’ve seen this year…which is a continuation of one of the worst coaching jobs of 2020.
Why?
1) How do you possess David Johnson, trade for him, and don’t know how capable he is in the passing game and thus design plays for it? I’ve seen 2-3 purposed screens this year…otherwise they did not even try anything unique with him – and he’s made some surprise/bailout catches downfield off Watson scrambles/2nd-3rd-4th-looks…but no one thinks to try things on purpose. It’s stunning…and then again, not stunning…to be expected.
2) Vernon Hargreaves is one of the worst corners in the NFL…and they keep playing him. Kirk Cousins would look/throw to wherever Hargreaves was most of the night (and try to avoid Bradley Roby). The Texans ran a bunch of zone coverage to try to make up for their overall coverage issues but there were several breakdowns of communication and Adam Thielen made a huge, wide-open play within that.
With all that…The Texans had a chance to tie the game late, but on 3rd & goal from the 1-yard line they tried a read option pitch that was dangerous, David Johnson took his eyes off the pitch to see what was between him and the end zone and he botched it. On 4th-down, they couldn’t get it done…and ball game, loss by 8 for Houston.
Should an NFL head coach get fired after 4 games into a season, after what he’s accomplished the past few years? I get a notion of sticking by him for history’s sake -- but with the godawful planning anyone close to the team could see was lacking, the weak GM-ing people have hated, and then a verbal fight with J.J. Watt…there’s no coming back from that when JJW turns on you. You have to be smarter than that. They might as well make the change now and start moving on…don’t drag it out. Romeo Crennel is not going to do anything either, so this thing will continue to head down the tubes.
Minnesota wasn’t great here, but they were solid…and they just let Houston faceplant on themselves over and over.
The Vikings are (1-3), and not a very good team/just beat one of the worst teams of 2020 who then fired their coach afterwards it was so bad. Their next three games are @SEA, ATL, @GB – it’s their season the next three games, and if they lose the road games (likely) they will be (2-5) heading into an easier stretch of schedule, and hopefully getting Danielle Hunter back, but by then it will be too late most likely. We project a 6-7 win finish for ‘OK’ Minnesota. I think the Vikings could be on the verge of a similar head coaching issue that Houston just went through – an unlikable head coach, who gets more unlikable with each loss, and a roster trending down not up…Zimmer could be in hot water if this season turns south hard.
I would assume that Houston will make absolutely no innovative changes with their ‘soft’/sleepy substitute teacher coach. The Texans season will come down to Weeks 5 and 6. Maybe they beat JAX Week 5, maybe with the joy of no Bill O’Brien, and thus the bleeding stops. Then beat Tennessee Week 6…and maybe the season is back on track – the Texans could be (2-4) after Week 6 with (3-2) TEN or (4-2) IND in 1st-place…Houston just a game or two out with 10 games left and two Indy matchups to go. It’s hope/do-able…but if Houston loses Week 5 or 6, it’s pretty much over.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- As I do, I watched every David Johnson (16-63-0, 2-29-0/3) carry intently…looking for clues, for worries, for hope – looking for the truth. All I can tell you is – everything looks fine. His legs, his speed is good (not as great as it used to be…but he rarely gets room to roll to see), especially his agility/bounce in his step and cutbacks are as good as ever.
He has no space to run. That’s the problem. And they don’t throw him the ball with any purpose…that’s a Fantasy killer.
Just so it doesn’t sound like I’m making things up from biased memories, I checked some numbers on DJ and used his opposing RB here (Dalvin Cook) to check some data…
Using the stat ‘Yards Before Contact’ (per attempt), which is how people try to gauge how much room/opportunity an RB has to run before defenders are making contact, here’s Cook v. DJ the past three years in ‘Yards Before Contact’ (and you want to see 2.3-2.5+ to feel good about things)…
Dalvin Cook:
2018 = 2.6
2019 = 2.2
2020 = 3.0
David Johnson:
2018 = 2.1 (this was the one year with the Steve Wilks disaster)
2019 = 1.9 (Kliff’s 1st-year in Arizona)
2020 = 2.0 (the Texans era)
I tried to think of other good backs stuck behind a troubling O-Line in recent years to compare. Here’s a few I looked at…
Joe Mixon:
2018 = 2.7
2019 = 1.8
2020 = 2.4
Leonard Fournette:
2018 = 1.6
2019 = 1.4
2202 = 1.7
Ezekiel Elliott:
2018 = 2.8 (best O-Line in football year?)
2019 = 2.3 (lost some OLs)
2020 = 1.7 (lost A LOT of OLs and his rushing numbers are paying a price)
Some of these lower numbers can probably be attributed to ‘running style’…power backs get sent at a wall, other RBs get more mix of outside runs but low ‘Yards Before Contact’ is also an indictment of the O-Line, QB, and play calling – mostly O-Line.
Jonathan Taylor is being sent headfirst into stacked lines and has a 2.4 number YTD – better than most. Why? Don’t we love their O-Line? It shows in his number…and his number has been rising as the season goes on.
I was thinking of another RB who is just ‘OK/good’ but I think benefits from the O-Line…Raheem Mostert. His three-year numbers:
2018 = 4.2
2019 = 3.5
2020 = 5.3 (has that untouched 80-yard run in there to fluff it)
So, the ‘O-Line’ could be a viable explanation for DJ…but it still leaves the problem – he has an issue that is not easily overcome. However, look at Derrick Henry’s numbers…
2018 = 1.9
2019 = 1.9
2020 = 1.7
You can overcome a weak O-Line, for FF, with a lot of touches and an offense that gets you down to the goal line for easy scores (for FF).
You just have to keep FF-grinding with DJ hoping for those TDs to come and maybe a change in offensive style to free him in some way. I can tell you, the first four games of his usage looked like 2018 with Steve Wilks – up the middle, and everyone knew it, and it went nowhere, and DJ was making +1-2-3 yards on plays with sheer effort/determination.
DJ might be ‘screwed’ for FF 2020 because of this, we’ll see -- but he’s not ‘shot’…if that’s what you’re asking/wondering. Not that I see.
-- Everyone is excited by the possibilities of Kirk Cousins’ (16-22 for 260 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) schedule the next two weeks – vs. the #32 pass D of Seattle and then vs. the #31 pass D of Atlanta. How could this not work for FF?
Well, it makes sense on paper…but also note that Mike Zimmer would rather win these games with 30+ runs a game, and less Cousins…regardless of the defense.
You know what NFL team has the least amount of pass attempts in football right now? You guessed it – the Minnesota Vikings.
It should be good for Justin Jefferson (4-103-0/5) and Adam Thielen (8-114-1/10) too but watch out. Jefferson looks great, but I fear what will happen to him when the schedule turns tougher and Zimmer tries to run through it (which was Stefon Diggs’ complaint all along).
-- I know, you hate Jordan Akins (3-46-0/3) now because he is not repaying your love. Flash in the pan, RC!!!
Let me just say – he looked great here. His numbers, all before halftime and then with a minute left before the half, Harrison Smith crowned him helmet-to-helmet and sent him out of the game. Akins was pacing for a 6-92-0/6 day or better, when you just double his 1st-half.
I love the way Akins looks with Deshaun Watson this year. Don’t give up on it yet, if you can help it. Buy it cheap in Dynasty if you need it…or any league where you need/can store depth.
Akins probably misses this week’s game with that concussion, but I hope not.
-- I was asked about HOU DT P.J. Hall (7 tackles, 1 sack, 1 TFL) on the Tuesday Video Chat – is he breaking out/finally fulfilling the promise of his Draft/prospect hopes from a few years ago?
I don’t think so.
I took an extended look at his work here, and nice DT IDP numbers got the game but…
He definitely is playing good NFL ball…he’s a load clogging up space in the middle. He is fighting at the LOS very well, but he’s just clogging the interior and things come near him and he made some plays. His sack here was not impressive…a QB flushed into Hall’s area. I saw a good for the NFL, weak for IDP number production player on tape.
He is not-nothing. He is starting now (last 3 games). He has made it to ‘viable NFL DT’, but that athletic freak we all wondered about years ago – I don’t see it.
-- Bradley Roby (7 tackles, 2 PDs) is to be feared for the opposing #1 WR across from him. He allowed just 3 catches for 14 yards, and 1 TD to WRs he was covering here.
Oddly, HOU went to some zone and/or was having Roby pass off Thielen to the safeties who looked clueless 40% of the time and Jefferson-Thielen had some monster plays from it – but not off Roby.
Roby has allowed 33 yards in a game, for the ‘high/most’ allowed this season to WRs he covers – and that was Week 1 v. Tyreek. D.J. Chark gets this Week 5…but note that DJC could thrive/do OK if Roby hands him off to dumb safeties like he did with Thielen here sometimes.
Snap Counts of Interest:
36 = David Johnson
25 = Duke Johnson
52 = Fells
19 = Akins (knocked out before halftime)
61 = Cooks
50 = Fuller
48 = Cobb
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Bengals 33, Jaguars 25
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
OK, OK…the Bengals won. Let’s not get too sappy, happy about it. Neither team is very good, and the Jaguars lost two good+ cornerbacks and a key linebacker in this game, and it ripped their heart out…and Cincy still scuffled to get the win.
Cincy goes on to face at BAL and at IND the next two weeks…so, this bubble pops right now. It’s a 3-4 win team this season, at best.
The Jags are now (1-3), three losses in a row, and falling apart with injuries fast. They’ll be lucky to be a 3-4 win team.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I remembered this game, the live watch, as Gardner Minshew (27-40 for 351 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) not really attacking with D.J. Chark (8-95-2/9) right away…and that worried me. However, re-watching it, that wasn’t really the case. Minshew was pretty appropriate…treating DJC like his #1. I feel better now re-watching it.
DJC was really good here. He made some terrific catches. He’s a WR1 talent that we’ll see if he can put up WR1 numbers this year. Minshew is not looking great, but he’s fine, just not ‘extra’ compared to last year…not growing in this stuffy offense – so DJC goes as far as Minshew takes him.
It should be fine. The Jags may be so riddled with injuries that they are always down, and always throwing in games. The Jags are #10 in pass attempts in the NFL. That ranking may be ready to grow.
I don’t love DJC’s next four weeks…he gets Bradley Roby this week, which has been bad news for WRs. He then has DET, which is solid for Chark. Then a BYE Week 7. Then LAC and possibly Casey Hayward on him…and that’s not good either. Then Week 9 back to Bradley Roby. I love DJC, but four of his next 5 weeks are very shaky – that’s why I’m selling high on him IN REDRAFT this week off this 2-TD game. Nothing personal, because he’s great. I’m fine to hold, but I’m seeking to lever this big week.
-- Same thing with Joe Mixon (25-151-2, 6-30-1/6)…I love the guy but a hot week, after three duds, and then at BAL, at IND the next two weeks is brutal with a Week 9 BYE and then Week 10 at PIT. Four of his next 6 weeks are TERRIBLE. He might come through as RBs can do, getting short TDs – but we got issues on Mixon and Burrow & Friends many of the upcoming weeks.
-- Speaking of Joe Burrow (25-36 for 300 yards, 1 TD/1 INT)…he’s great. Like a young Joe Montana. Great QB mind, and sneaky tough. Greta vision for the field…just little protection for him in the pocket. Still, this marks three 300+ yard passing games in a row.
But before I watched this CIN-JAX game, I watched LAC-TB…and I have to say that Justin Herbert just looks like the superior QB in every way right now. No slam to Burrow, but Herbert has quite frankly…been amazing, for a rookie put in the spot he has been.
-- I am getting a lot of intel that Joe Burrow is on-field close/connected to Tee Higgins (4-77-0/7)…that he loves throwing to him. He feels they are super-connected. Tee is going to be a solid WR2 threat because of it. Tyler Boyd a PPR WR1.5 hopeful, Higgins an all-formats WR2-2.5.
Just to note again…A.J. Green (1-3-0/5) needs to go to the retirement home that Philip Rivers should be going to. AJG is just embarrassing himself now but getting paid A LOT to do so.
-- Drew Sample (3-47-0/5) has a chance to be the Robert Tonyan, the Dalton Schultz, etc., for your FF teams…working with Joe Burrow.
Sample’s two non-receptions/targets this game…a 10+ yard TD pass in his hands but on the jump ball, as he and the defender crashed to the ground, the cover LB stole it as they fell and it was a TD-turned-pick. His second miss was Burrow again high point throwing to Sample, and it went right through his hands in the end zone -- it was a tough catch, but the intent was there. Sample VERY nearly had 2 TDs in this game, and had he gone 5-65-2/5, everyone would have piled back into him for FF salvation. Instead, they are into Robert Tonyan this week.
Sample has an upside to low-end TE1 here…but not assured.
-- Two Jags’ defenders killing it for IDP…
SAF Andrew Wingard (10 tackles, 1 PD) has played two full games as starting safety (Weeks 2 and 4), and he is averaging 9.5 total tackles per game in those games. He’s a high-energy tackling machine.
SAF Josh Jones (11 tackles) has started all 4 games and is averaging 9.0 tackles per game.
Note – the Jags lost D.J. Hayden to injury in this game, and he is now on I.R. for at least 3 weeks. This is a KILLER for the Jags defense. Opposing slot WRs benefit hugely. Randall Cobb Week 5…Tyler Boyd Week 6…BYE Week 7.
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Sample
58 = Boyd
53 = AJG
34 = Higgins
58 = Chark
50 = Cole
37 = Shenault
21 = Conley
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 4: Game Analysis: Seahawks 31, Dolphins 23
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Miami made this a game, when most thought it would be a blowout. They were going toe-to-toe with Seattle, but in the end…Ryan Fitzpatrick/Miami doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to score in the red zone and then you keep giving Russell Wilson chances…Seattle’s going to win.
Miami had 9 offensive drives in this game. Pick and a punt on the first two drives. The final 7 drives had 5 FGs, a TD, a pick near the end zone. If Miami were not so pathetic at RB and WR, they might have scored 50 points this game. Every time I’d see Myles Gaskin get a carry near the goal line -- I just shook my head. How is that Miami’s best RB plan?
Miami played tough. They had chances. It was a 2-point game with 5+ left, and then the dam broke.
Miami plays two games ahead that they could win both or lose both and the season be defined -- @SF, @DEN the next two weeks. If Miami can at least split those games, get to (2-4)…looking down the road, they have 2 games with NYJ and 1 with the Bengals still on the schedule…that’s potentially 5 wins (NYJ 2x, CIN + if 2-4 after Week 6). Leaving them with the question of whether they can get to 9 wins with the other 7 other games that are not NYJ or CIN to play after Week 6…but it’s a much tougher schedule. We see Miami between 6-8 wins. When they get back Byron Jones this week, it’s a whole new situation – a solid defense and piss-poor offense.
Seattle is (4-0) and the Cardinals, Rams, nor 49ers impress me much. Seattle might cruise to the NFC West crown, but the Seahawks have not been great either…but spotted with a (4-0) start puts them in a great position to rule the NFC West. Seattle projects as a 10+ win team for sure (as long as Wilson is there).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- How long ‘til Tua?
The way Herbert-Burrow are playing…it might get forced soon. The longer it takes, the more worried I’d be that they know Tua is NOT ready…not the skills or the readiness of Herbert-Burrow.
What will change with Tua for FF?
No clue. No one has seen him work with this team under fire. He would walk in with a WR group worse than what he had in college.
He might revive Preston Williams (1-15-0/3). Teams are still covering Williams hot…while Fitz is pushing DeVante Parker (10-110-0/12), which defenses seem to be fine making Fitz-Parker beat them (because it’s not working).
I don’t know how good Tua is going to be for the NFL…I’m skeptical.
-- DeVante Parker is now game-on as a WR1.5 threat in PPR until defenses change/if they change how they cover him.
Preston Williams doesn’t exist except in the red zone for Fitz, it seems (he’s getting RZ targets but not many connections).
Isaiah Ford (4-40-0/10) by default is getting targets, but he’s not very athletic so he doesn’t do much with them. He’s solid/capable. Nothing special, but any WR getting 6-8+ targets a game is worth something in an emergency.
-- Durham Smythe (2-30-0/2) got a little extra pass game work in here, (for him) but he’s still playing less snaps then Mike Gesicki (1-15-0/3). Smythe looks capable but this offense is so stiff and Gesicki gets red zone…it will never FF-matter.
-- An impressive debut for DeeJay Dallas (2-8-0, 2-15-0/2). He’s a scrappy, high energy, high effort runner that could matter if Chris Carson ever got hurt for an extended period of time. Dallas had a real nice run and run after the catch among his limited touches…very agile/bouncy on his feet for his bowling ball-like body. He might matter someday, but not today.
Speaking of that – don’t forget…Rashaad Penny is slated to return Week 8 – IF he is cleared. He’s rehabbing off an ACL last year, suffered just as he was starting to breakout for Seattle. Unless, Carson goes down and out…Penny, Hyde, Homer, Dallas will never matter for FF 2020.
-- With all the offensive fireworks for Seattle, #3 WR David Moore (3-95-1/4) sails right under the radar. He has a TD catch in two of his last 3 games. If the fireworks persist…he enters the BYE week Flex/WR3 picture potentially. He’s talented but overshadowed by Metcalf-Lockett-Carson-Olsen. He gets a TD this week v. MIN and people will be looking at him more for FF.
-- On the fireworks theory, Greg Olsen (5-35-0/7) has 4 or more catches in three of his 4 games this season. He’s getting a healthy dose of targets and catches, but he is looking slow/the age is catching up with him – but still TE1.5-2.0 viable in PPR.
-- Rookie RB/WR Lynn Bowden (1-5-0) got in for a play at wildcat QB, which is how he rose to power in college last year. I don’t see any real push of him as a WR or RB here so far after 4 weeks.
-- The Miami-DST is 12th in the NFL in PPG allowed…not bad considering they have faced Buffalo and Seattle among their games so far. Their three losses this year have come against teams a combined (11-1) so far.
Miami’s defense has hung in despite the fact that Byron Jones has missed, essentially, the last 3 games…it’s not bad.
I’ve stated multiple times you want this defense with the KC-DST, a near-perfect pairing. But if you don’t have KC-DST, it’s not a bad DST to grab this week to use at DEN Week 6. Or pickup after Week 7-8 before they have Weeks 10 v NYJ, Week 11 bye, Week 12 at NYJ.
This is all assuming they have their dangerous CB duo Xavien Howard-Byron Jones healthy/playing. Rookie CB Noah Igbinoghene (1 tackle) is playing very well too, so Miami could soon have a really stout pass defense.
Snap Counts of Interest:
46 = Gaskin
17 = Breida
08 = J Howard
04 = Bowden
57 = DeVante
45 = I Ford
43 = Preston W
28 = Jakeem Grant
35 = Carson
17 = Homer
11 = Dallas
