R.C. Fischer

FFM

29 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Titans 31, Vikings 30

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

*TUE 9/29 Video Q&A – Special Time: 7pmET-830pmET*

The Vikings went up 24-12 with 8+ minutes left in the 3rd-quarter and it just felt like it was going to be a Minnesota win…that the (0-2) team would rise up to take down the (2-0) team that had been skating by on some luck to be undefeated. They seemed evenly matched enough and it was a simple game of ‘let’s see who is better’ the side giving the ball to Derrick Henry every play or the side giving the ball to Dalvin Cook every play.

The Derrick Henry side won in the end.

Could’ve gone either way but the Titans just felt like they were playing ‘like winners’ and Minnesota just isn’t playing with any confidence or pizazz. Just the mood of the game or I was just projecting into it…but it seemed Tennessee was not rattled and Minnesota puckered up down the stretch.

The Vikings feel like they need a ‘hard reboot’…just flush the system and rebuild. Cousins and Cook and Thielen and Zimmer are nice, but not nice enough to be a juggernaut. Perhaps Danielle Hunter returns and is an adrenaline shot instead of a reboot, but he might be weeks away and the season is lost by then. Not having the home field advantage anymore really stings the Vikings. Minnesota plays at Houston Week 4 in a game that is going to likely end one team’s season unofficially.

Tennessee is (3-0)…three wins by a combined 6 points. They’ve beaten teams that are a combined (1-8). And lucky to have beaten any of them. The clock is ticking on Tennessee. A three game homestand against PIT-BUF-HOU could expose this team, but if they come out of it (4-2), they’ve got the schedule to win 9-10 games this year.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let’s get this out of the way first, the main thing I watched from the tape study: Justin Jefferson (7-175-1/9). Is he worthy of the top waiver spot this week…is he a FF wide receiver savior this week/ahead?

No, I don’t think so.

Jefferson is good/solid, he might even be very good…eventually. I just think it’s a bit early/rash to start jumping on his bandwagon and thinking he’s going to carry your wounded warrior WR group right now. If I were to have him/had acquired him this week – I would sell him hot/high as best I could.

It won’t get any better than ‘rookie’ + 100+ yard game + the big game happened last week/fresh in our minds.

Sure, there’s a place for him here – the clear #2 WR where Adam Thielen (3-29-1/5) will get the main coverage, but this is the #27 passing game in the NFL, a new O-C, a stuffy head coach who wants to run every play…and Jefferson is good-not-great, and if he is great it’s not yet.

People are going to go crazy for him this week. The funny part is that in leagues where Allen Lazard is not taken (which is a crime if you let that happen)…Lazard had just as big of a Week 3, plays with a superior offense/QB, and is more experienced and has a #1 WR who takes all the coverage…and Lazard will get half or less the interest. People are going to reach here because they LOVE magical unicorn rookies…especially if they owned them first! Why…it will be so magical and glorious to be the first to plant my flag…

Jefferson is as good as any WR2-3 option out there, but most of them you can get for a lot less today.

 -- In this same game, Kalif Raymond (3-118-0/3) had three huge catches and a 100+ yard game, and…yaaaawwwwnnn. Why…he can’t be any good? He can’t be magical or a unicorn because he’s not a rookie…and, ewwww, he wasn’t even drafted. Yuck. Gross. And he didn’t even catch 4 TD passes from Joe Burrow in a college game I watched either, so moving on…

Raymond is a solid rotational #4 WR teams forget about and he just beats them deep for a/one play a week…this game it was three, a first for him.

In other Titans WR news, Corey Davis (5-69-0/6) had another forgettable game.

As soon as A.J. Brown returns, every Titans WR goes back to their normal flow.

 -- The normal flow for the Titans passing game includes Jonnu Smith (5-61-0/8). Jonnu is Tannehill’s #2 guy now from what I see…#1 with AJB out, but #2 when he returns – and in a low volume, high efficiency passing game.

Jonnu is a higher-end TE1 talent who will be a low-end TE1 producer for FF/PPR with Brown back. He’ll be stable/solid but limited upside still showing due to the passing game.

 -- Darrynton Evans (3-9-0) made his debut. He didn’t flash or show anything, but it was limited touches in his first ever game. Looked below average, but that’s normal for a rookie. I think he’s a ‘C to C+’ type talent…buried behind Derrick Henry. No more, no less…but he would be the guy if Henry went down.

 -- The number of emails and questions I got about trading away Derrick Henry (26-119-2, 2-11-0/3) last week was crazy, but expected.

Whenever a player has two weak FF games (especially if Weeks 1-2)…owners panic and the price drops and the urgency to ‘change for the sake of change’ is high. All that goes away now with this 2 TD game.

If you wanted to sell Henry, the time is now…off this type of week. The crazy fantasy thing that destroys FF teams is the weak-minded, fly-by-night ever-changing emotional management of selling low and buying high – last week you would have traded Henry reasonably for whatever. Now, just one week later, Henry is untouchable for you/the price is 5x higher for what you’d want in exchange. All in one week?

The fantasy mind is a fascinating, frightening thing.

That’s why I keep railing and encouraging the (0-3) teams…it’s an easy trap to fall into, an easy (defeated) mindset to adopt and accelerates the downfall of struggling teams. And all you (2-1) and (1-2) teams…you’re a week away/a loss away from potentially falling down the same rabbit hole of illogicalness. You should read all the (0-3) stuff from today as a cautionary tale.

For every 100 people who listen to my patience message, one person will be helped/will take it to heart. I do it for ‘the one’ and have hope for ‘the 99’. Sometimes you need to hear it a thousand times before it clicks in and changes your process. I only know because I deal with this with so many people for so many years now…I’ve been to the future. I know how this movie goes. I was one of those who learned the hard way myself. I know of what I speak.

 -- Vikes CB Holton Hill (7 tackles) cannot stop getting 7 tackles in a game! He’s hit 7 total tackles three games in a row now. Which is impressive for a cornerback. Note he’s 6’2”/200+ at CB…he’s like a safety at corner.

Hill is the #15 DB in IDP scoring per game (FPros data). The #5 CB in IDP scoring…one tackle from being #3 among CBs.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Thielen

51 = J Jefferson

22 = Beebe

05 = Bisi J.

55 = Corey Davis

45 = Cam Batson

39 = Humphries

20 = Raymond

R.C. Fischer

FFM

28 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Ravens 33, Texans 16

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The Texans were never in this game, really…but they weren’t ‘out of it’ for most of the time. They were just undermanned/under talented/under-gunned/out-coached. It’s not a crime. The Ravens are blowing through all comers. And to no surprise, the Ravens blew through the Texans.

We don’t know how good or bad the Texans are because they’ve played the two best teams in football Weeks 1-2…the clear, beyond two best teams in football. Their crime is losing to both. They have a do-or-die game with Pittsburgh this week that I wouldn’t be surprised if they smoked the Steelers with their backs against the wall.

If Houston can get to (1-2), then a 9+ win season is very possible ahead and playoff hopes. If they dig an (0-3) hole, they are going to have to work to get to 9 wins/the playoffs. Huge game here.

Baltimore can go all-in Week 3 vs. KC…they have at WAS, CIN, at PHI the following three weeks. I have a feeling the Ravens are going to put on a show vs. KC, but KC also doing showtime as well. It’s going to be an epic game of the two best teams in football…again…with no one else in the discussion.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- If you got Jordan Akins (7-55-0/7) last week, ahead of this game, as we were hinting strongly at…you got a star FF TE in the making on your team. He looks fantastic. The best ‘out of nowhere’ TE that I have seen this season. Some TEs are up on a blip for the moment, a good game/play/matchup or even the QB choice (like C.J. Uzomah was blipping, but he’s not ‘good’, per se…or Mo Alie-Cox)…but Akins is for real. I would dare say he’s Deshaun Watson’s favorite receiver right now.

I think you can have some pretty nice PPR TE1 trust…a guy who will go 5+ catches every game and get 5-7 TDs on the season. He looks and is playing great.

 -- You know who will be great? J.K. Dobbins (2-48-0, 1-13-0/1).

We’re all celebrating and chasing Joshua Kelley and Jonathan Taylor and D’Andre Swift and Clyde Edwards-Helaire or James Robinson for various reasons and most all of them warranted. JKD’s crime is he’s stuck on the Ravens’s roster/depth chart.

I’d argue Dobbins is the best-looking runner of the ball of the group – him and Taylor. Whenever Dobbins gets unleashed, which may not be until 2021, he might lead the league in rushing or just runs over 20+ yards. He’s a great fit in a great offense…once they give it over to him, which might happen in-season later..

 -- Not the best-looking back this day…David Johnson (11-34-0, 2-16-0/4).

I watched every single run of his here, most of them I looked a 2nd-time in slow motion to see what he was seeing/missing or was it the blocking. I thought DJ, overall, did fine. He just had little space to run. He made a few ‘something out of nothing’ runs but also missed a few holes (maybe). He looks fine+ physically, power-wise, and nimble. I’m not concerned about him at all.

I’m am concerned about two things with DJ:

1) Don’t like the Steelers matchup at all. He’s DJ, so he could do something magical or fall into the end zone for a TD…but it’s a bad mix, on paper, for Houston’s run game vs. the #1 run defense in the league. If the Steelers watch this tape vs. BAL, they’ll copycat it and shut down the run game.

2) Deshaun Watson is not throwing to him on purpose at all. No set plays on screens from Bill O’Brien. I have no idea what the Texans could be thinking, except being blind to your own talent is a proud motto in the NFL.

Watson did have him open for an easy TD toss off a scramble but then Watson slipped on a banana peel and slid to the ground and threw the ball 10 feet short of an open-in-the-end-zone DJ – we got robbed of a DJ TD.

DJ also lined up outside as a WR one play and beat his safety deep, like he could every play if they looked at it, but Watson threw it five feet over his head…a missed 25+ yard pass easy.  We had 10-11 points stolen from us by the FF gods that absolutely hate me right now. I’ll have my revenge…the real God will help me, no need to fear!

 -- A quick note on each QB…

1) Deshaun Watson (25-36 for 275 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 5-17-0) looked a bit better on tape than my mind thought live. I mean that from a running standpoint…Watson had a little juice in his legs. It’s just the  Ravens were just turned up to ‘11’ and the Texans were helpless to respond.

Kind of a do-or-die game Week 3 at PIT. I bet Watson runs a lot to try to save the season – when he feels urgency, he adds more running to his game. This could be a decent FF week on that front…or the PITT-D is too good, like Baltimore and it’s another dud. Hope and fear.

2) Lamar Jackson (18-24 204 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 16-54-0) didn’t have a huge game and thus people with him lost their fantasy game to other big QB performances. Lamar and Deshaun killed their owners Week 2…not only with their duds here but the fact so many other QBs are now rising up to do the same FF-thing (big running, decent passing) this whole season.

You thought Lamar was on a pedestal as a runner-thrower and then Watson was a step behind in the same way, but Cam Newton and Josh Allen are rolling better numbers as runner-passers so far. Their rise takes the value out of Lamar/Deshaun…Deshaun-Lamar are not in a class of their own, others are joining…it’s like the fed printing money and inflation ensues.

You need these guys running big because they aren’t typically passing for their FF stats. I fear Watson got paid and ultimately his urgency, in general, still seems down. Lamar is trying to get paid, so I think you’ll see his numbers pop ahead as he takes TDs and rush yards to try to get to the next $500M contract. He can’t afford for Cam to be a $500M less cost/same value version.

I’m really worried Deshaun is the lesser runner and lesser passer than Lamar, Kyler, Josh, and Cam…and then when Mahomes, Russ, Dak, Tannehill enter the discussion…it pushes Watson further down the chain of FF QBs. You might need a strong Plan B for Watson in case he’s a #10-15 QB this season…not #3-6.

 -- Brandin Cooks (5-95-0/8) had a solid game for Houston, after a Week 1 dud. Will Fuller getting smoked by Ravens coverage pushed Cooks, and then Fuller checked out with injury (because that’s his norm).

I don’t think you can count on Cooks as any more than a random WR3-4…guys like Keelan, Gage, etc. are going to be as good.

Will Fuller is proving out to be nothing but a hoax. You can only work him in great matchups. Cooks is useful when Fuller gets tough matchups.

 -- Three IDP notes…

1) BAL LB Tyus Bowser (3 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 QB hits) has a sack each game this year. He has nice pass rush skills and is playing a little more. Maybe he’s in for an 8+ sack season. His sack here was ‘lucky’.

2) J.J. Watt (2 tackles, 2 sacks) is ‘back’ in a sense…2.0 sacks this game (first two of the year) but note he has 5 QB hits so far this year…among the league leaders. He’s playing DT in various spots and that’s a nice mix up for him/offenses to contend with.

3) HOU CB Bradley Roby (2 tackles) is entering the shutdown corner conversation. Nice job with Tyreek Week 1 and Marquise Brown (5-42-0/6) here.

Week 3 – Who Roby chases is going to matter for FF Week 3…is it JuJu or Diontae? I think it will be JuJu but Roby will mix things up or not chase time-to-time to give a window to the opposing WR. You hope for your PIT WR that Roby is not chasing them.

Subsequently, whomever gets Vernon Hargreaves on them…a big winner. It might be Washington/Claypool…more Claypool.

Snap Counts of Interest:

56 = David Johnson

53 = Cooks

49 = Akins

24 = Fells

27 = Ingram

20 = Edwards

20 = Dobbins

R.C. Fischer

FFM

28 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3 Game Analysis: Dolphins 31, Jags 13

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

When you think about Week 3…as a bettor/handicapper or for your fantasy teams…just note that Week 3 is a very big fork in the road/turning point/back against the wall kind of week for ‘down’ NFL teams.

When you look at two weeks of data and are sure ___ team sucks because they are (0-2) or ____ player sucks because they haven’t had a nice FF game yet and/or  ____ player is now great (because he had a great week last week)…you’re apt to get burned chasing yesterdays low sample size news. This game was the epitome of that.

For two weeks the Jags had played really good football…beating a top Colts team and losing close to an undefeated, Final Four 2019 season team in Tennessee. The Jags were close to being (2-0) coming into this game. All the metrics/numbers I like were with the Jags, a solid 2020 start against good teams – now they are playing Week 3 at HOME on TNF against a Miami team that has scuffled around and looked downtrodden and were missing their top cover corner.

How could the Jags not come out and make a stand, make a statement, win this game?

The Jaguars were utterly humiliated by a team led by Myles Gaskin and patchwork secondary…at home, with fans.

How is it possible? It’s football. Things don’t go in a straight line. Guys who score a TD one week, tend not to the next week. Teams that look terrible last week, play inspired the next week. Week 3 is usually a spot where the radical happens. Seasons are not ‘over’…(0-2) teams can get right back into the game with a win. They’re so desperate not to go (0-3)/just win a game and get the monkey off their backs…they tend to rise up.

I don’t know that Miami played their best game more than Jacksonville crashed to earth. The Jags lost D.J. Chark before the game, which ended up one of the biggest keys to the game (because Chris Conley is the worst WR in the NFL) and then they lost two starting defenders in-game. Jacksonville was sluggish and predictable, and Miami played inspired, got a lead, and never let it go…not even close really.

Miami gets right back into the 2019 season. 10 days to let Byron Jones get back to the field. They’re a (1-2) team that are a game out of the wild card on Monday morning…with 14 weeks of season to go. Miami has a choppy but more favorable schedule ahead, especially now that Week 5 at SF isn’t as ominous as it would have been pre-all 49ers’ getting hurt.

If Miami can use some ‘home field’ magic (very tough place for road teams to come in and win), plus some scheduling grace – they can be (6-6) heading into a very tough final four games of the season. It’s hope, at least. Getting away from an (0-3) start and instead getting to (1-2) changes everything – for Miami, and for you (0-2) FF teams.

Jacksonville blew a great opportunity to get to (2-1) and gain respect. They fall to (1-2). They’ll be an up-and-down team all season and we are projecting them to finish with 4-5 wins tops.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let’s talk about these WRs for Jacksonville…

1) Chris Conley (3-34-0/8) probably played the worst game of NFL WR I’ve seen in a long time…or at least in the last week or so. He literally looked like he’s never seen a football pass come his way and didn’t know what to do with this foreign object coming at him.

Hey, but at least Gardner Minshew (30-42 for 275 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) identified the problem with Conley’s inability to catch a football and stopped throwing to him immediately.

https://youtu.be/P4qWJKXMWXw

…or, Gardner did what an idiot would do – keep throwing to Conley, and if he was doubled…no problem, still throw it. Go get it big guy! I’m sure the 8th time will be the charm.

Conley led all Jacksonville players with 8 targets. Why? I have no idea. Minshew betting on the Dolphins is the only explanation. There should be a congressional investigation.

I watched the tape, All-22, in slow-mo occasionally…there were other things open. I have no idea what Minshew was doing.

So, D.J. Chark gets 3 and 4 targets in his first two games, but ‘Dropsy the Clown’ gets 8 targets in his place? Seriously, this is making me re-think everything about Gardner Minshew. You can’t be that dumb.

2) Because Conley was the brilliant game plan, apparently, Keelan Cole (4-43-0/5) barely saw targets.

Now, all we did was watch Cole gracefully deal with a misfired 3rd-down pass and do a 180 in the air and catch the pass near the sidelines and then drop his feet in – the best play of the night. Who wants to try and target this guy more anyway? https://youtu.be/4JPGVdQtdYI

That was catch #1, all Cole did on catch #2: https://youtu.be/ZkjspFoJpcc

After he bailed the team out again with a brilliant 1st-down-making play…he never saw a catch/target again until junk time on the final drive of the game. How can a quarterback be so stupid?

We can make fun here, but don’t let it take away from the fact that Cole is a legit NFL WR. He was a top 20 WR for FF scoring going into this week/game. It’s not like he’s not seeing action. He’s a decent WR3, one of the better WRs in the game going totally under the radar.

This is an organization who thought Dede Westbrook was better than Keelan Cole, so the stupidity-complicity is organizational.

3) You thought Laviska Shenault (5-33-0/6, 1-1-0) would be in a good spot to prosper a little bit with Chark out, but all the ‘unique ways’ the Jags were using Shenault got thrown out the window as the offense cratered. Must have forgot that section of the playbook for this game.

All we’ve heard for weeks is how highly they drafted Shenault in order to use him as a swiss army knife player to run the ball and do unique things. He did nothing unique in this game. He was his least unique when the offense needed him the most. Not his fault.

Again, there may have been several coaches/players who bet on the Dolphins this game. It’s the only explanation that makes sense to throw to a guy (who was probably in on it too) who can’t catch, and also don’t throw to the guy catching everything (Cole), and ignoring/not using the unique stylings of the thing you can’t stop talking about how unique he is (Shenault).

This week, we’ll all bench Cole and Shenault…and they’ll explode with career games…

If I didn’t have enough to FF-worry about, now I have to worry this organization and QB not throwing the ball to Chark in the weeks to come…because they’re too stupid to do so.

 -- The Jags did make sure to get the ball to their least electric option, James Robinson (11-46-0, 6-83-0/6) because there is one thing you can count on – when the head coach runs his mouth about this big, bold move he made to go with the UDFA RB he ‘discovered’ and cuts Leonard Fournette, and he then talks nonstop about how Robinson was so good it just made sense to dump Fournette – know then that Robinson is getting the ball all the time to justify the coach.

Nothing against Robinson, but he’s every generically good RB in the NFL…he’s not a game changer, franchise RB. However, Doug Marrone sold his soul to say that he is…so, he will not-not feed Robinson all he can to show you how smart he is for making the bold decision.

Only injury can stop Robinson now…only injury can take him away from his betrothed, Doug Marrone.

 -- Preston Williams (2-7-1) caught a TD pass to save a truly terrible week/game from occurring. I love Williams as a talent, and he’s getting pushed around by top shutdown corners because teams don’t fear DeVante Parker (5-69-0/5), but this seems to be going nowhere fast for fantasy.

I noticed at the end of the game last week (Week 2), with the game up from grabs, Preston Williams was pulled from the game into the final drive. I thought he might be hurt. Well, here in Week 3…I saw a number of times he was not out there. Then I see he played just 57% of the snaps post-game – he’s being punished/sent a message whatever because of his poor play…but his poor play is more coming off the coverage he is getting (in my opinion).

I think Preston is sulking/mad/frustrated and Brian Flores is insane with player usage – it may be time to run from this to greener pastures until the smoke clears. As I wrote last week, the schedule is wobblily (for Preston specifically) ahead until past Weeks 9-10, so you can go try other things in redraft.

Williams may get it all together with coach’s discipline/tough love eventually, but I’m OK to try other things in redraft right now.

Brian Flores is pulling back on Williams, Jordan Howard, Mike Gesicki and Matt Breida and playing Myles Gaskin, Durham Smythe, and Isaiah Ford more. Totally illogical decisions with a huge difference in talent…but it doesn’t matter what we think or how I might see it clearly in scouting. It matters what Flores thinks.

 -- Mike Gesicki (1-15-1/3) god of Week 2…1 catch Week 3. Maybe you faced Gesicki Week 2 and not Weeks 1 or 3…why are you going to beat your FF-self up over random things happening with your opponents player’s when you play them, especially if you’re (0-2), just based on a sample size of two games.

I have said to a few (0-2) people this week, without knowing, but guessing – you probably lost a game due to a bad lineup call and another to your opponent having some one-time amazing event happen (like a Gesicki Week 2). You can’t damn your team/season to hell after two weeks if you could’ve won a game with the players you have in the right lineup and took a loss from a smashing event by an opponent that all you can do is tip your cap to.

These things happen all season, just because they happened Weeks 1-2 it feels extra terrible. And then to make the terrible feeling go away, you panic deal and do crazy lineup things out of self-imposed pressure…and then send your team spiraling faster.

Sometimes you play against bad Gesicki, sometimes dumb luck has it you played him Week 2 and he smoked you.

 -- Jags DE Josh Allen (2 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs, 3 QB hits) must be over his nagging injury…he was impressive getting into the backfield this game. He’s going to be a 10-12+ sack guy this year. Possible sack leader in the NFL.

Snap Counts of Interest:

53 = Conley

50 = Cole

45 = Shenault

30 = C Thompson

30 = J Robinson

46 = Gaskin

11 = Breida

42 = Smythe

30 = Gesicki

24 = Shaheen

56 = DeVante

35 = Pr Williams

27 = Ford

08 = Grant

R.C. Fischer

FFM

25 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Cowboys 40, Falcons 39

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

There were so many bizarre moments in this game to discuss – the early fumbles, the onside kick, the play calling, decision-making. I could write a book, but no doubt that’s all been covered by now…and a lot of it not-fantasy relevant, but it was certainly a very entertaining game to watch.

I walk away thinking, quite simply – the Cowboys gave the Falcons three early fumbles and a 20-0 head start, and Atlanta couldn’t put them away. I’ll discuss why in a moment. It’s a lucky win by Dallas, but an earned win…but I’m not so sure it portends Dallas’s greatness…or the Falcons suckiness. Sometimes football games are just strange/delightful one-offs.

Atlanta can right the ship and eliminate this taste out of their mouths with a win over Chicago Week 3, and I think it’s a possible best bet – depending upon the ATL injury report. There could be too many issues that end up taking this from ‘bet’ to just ‘pick’ (and Julio Jones is only one piece of this). The Falcons are showing me signs of a decent team, but with some warts (we’ll get to). Don’t think they are patsies. If they get Julio healthy and beat Chicago this week, with their schedule, they could be a 4-5/5-4 team by their Week 10 bye. All their NO and TB games are lumped into Weeks 11-17.  

Dallas is set for a run to the top of the NFC East, but that’s because they have no competition. If they beat Seattle this week, then they are going to walk with the division soon. If they lose to Seattle, they’ll have some work to do ahead to stay above .500 and flimsily take the division. Dallas is better than what I’m stating, but their injuries have dragged them down to more ‘question mark’ than ‘for sure’ thing. Damn lucky they are not (0-2) heading to (0-3) right now.

Had Dallas lost here, it’s entirely possible the NFC East would have been, after Week 3, Washington (1-2) and NYG-PHI-DAL (0-3).

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Here’s the Falcons’ biggest problem… Todd Gurley (21-61-0). When Atlanta got way up and tried to run the ball/run clock…Gurley didn’t do them any favors.

When Gurley got the ball on 1st-down after halftime, his rush totals on those plays were…

1, -2, 5, 4, 6, and -2 yards…2.0 yards per carry.

But Dallas was probably playing them to run, though?

Non-Gurley (Smith/Hill) runs on 1st-down in the 2nd-half: 6 and 9 yards.

The ineffectiveness is one thing, but the play style is glaring…disinterest, non-urgent running. He’s not inspiring anyone with his effort/play. But ‘he’s Todd Gurley’, so everyone is suckered into his aura from 3-4 years ago.

On my new ‘bloated’ theory (bloated = beyond well-paid players not trying as hard anymore)…Gurley is extra bloated. Playing easy for an easy paycheck…it’s on the table as a concern, at least.

Ito Smith (5-20-0) and Brian Hill (3-14-0, 2-11-0/2) come in with much more urgency. Gurley averaged 3.8 yards per carry last year and is at 3.3 ypc today for 2020. His yards after contact is down to 1.5. Broken tackles through two games in 2020 = 0.

I think it’s possible that there is a Gurley issue ahead for FF owners.

 -- Dallas has a major issue too…Jaylon Smith (14 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD) in pass coverage on TEs (or RBs). He’s such a stiff east-west runner that he gets torched by any type of athletic anything his way. Thus, Hayden Hurst (5-72-1/8) with a big game here.

Athletic/decent TEs against Dallas are a big green light for FF.

Missing Leighton Vander Esch, they’ve turned to Joe Thomas (12 tackles, 1 TFL) to fill-in at ILB and he played decently. He’s limited but plays his heart out.

 -- Russell Gage (6-46-1/9) is going to keep working in this way all season, as long as Julio and Ridley are out there taking a lot of attention in coverage.

Gage isn’t great but he’s in a good spot – he’s established with Matt Ryan and he works hard. The Falcons could do better at the slot, but it’s too late now for 2020…he’s the guy. He’ll be a WR3 +/- all season in PPR.

Gage had a beautiful 30+ yard TD toss right into Julio’s hands – but he dropped it.

 -- What’s up with Michael Gallup (2-58-0/5)? I don’t know. It’s easy to say he’s ‘forgotten’ because of CeeDee Lamb, but it may just be a blip to start the year – but I’d be a bit worried. I’d rather Gallup be in the slot but he’s working as an outside WR a lot now. He got great coverage on him vs. the Rams Week 1 and I thought Isaiah Oliver (5 tackles, 2 PDs) did a wonderful job on him here.

CeeDee Lamb (6-106-0/9) is working the slot and getting better opportunities, and he looks fine but I’ve not been blown away by anything he’s done.

Gallup should have his time soon. He’s a decent ‘buy low’ (real low, and now with too much urgency) because he’s about to be dropped in some 12-team leagues with a bad/weak performance Week 3. His price is very low right now. I’m not 100% sure he’s springing back to WR1.5, but I think it’s possible…and for the price (today) it’s a consideration. Dallas has a favorable passing schedule most of this season…that’s what he has in his favor.

 -- The Falcons defense is showing me little sparks. I’m not using them with any confidence or investing in them for the future – just I’m watching and seeing a defense that’s not a total pushover.

Dak threw for a lot of prevent-ish defense yards but could only throw for 1 TD. Zeke only ran for 4.0 yards per carry. The fumbles from Dallas were not all from a slippery ball. Last week, Russell got them Week 1 but it was on screen passes…and Wilson also just torched Bill Belichick.

I think Atlanta is better than any of us think.

Something to watch for this week for betting or DST hail mary usage v. CHI…

If CB Kendall Sheffield is active, that’s a small plus for the secondary.

If Takk McKinley doesn’t play…I’m staying away from them as a sleeper DST and as a real bet.

If Dante Fowler is out WITH McKinley out AND no Sheffield…then the Bears/Trubisky might be the play.

Snap Counts of Interest:

75 = Cooper

75 = Gallup

68 = Lamb

08 = Noah Brown (looked good)

57 = Schultz

33 = Blake Bell

48 = Gurley

15 = Hill

11 = Ito

R.C. Fischer

FFM

25 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Seahawks 35, Patriots 30

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

I think Bill Belichick is a god among NFL head coaches in all of NFL history. I never want to bet against him or criticize him as if I know better than him (that prior statement allows me to now say what I want, completely the opposite of what I just proclaimed, recklessly and all).

I thought this was one of the worst game planned Patriots games I’ve seen in a long time. The Patriots have become ‘Cam save us’. I’ll get into a few more specifics in the next section, but I didn’t understand their defensive coverages or their offensive touches/rotations here…they just let Russell Wilson pretty much do whatever he wanted. I know Russ is cooking and he’s hard to stop, but you’d think Belichick would have some special sauce plan…nope. Rex Burkhead did play a lot though, if that helps. The Pats are going as far as Cam’s flirting with pick sixes will take them…sometimes he’s awesome, sometimes not.

Seattle, to me, is not as good as everyone thinks…but with Russell Wilson on fire – a lot of sins are covered. It’s a pretty bad defense in Seattle and no real run game. It’s all Russ, which you’d rather have ‘all Russ’ then ‘all Cam’ for the NFL – but Kansas City and Baltimore are way more balanced and dangerous. Not that Seattle won’t make a run, I just think they’re not as great as people think…they had every opportunity to run away with this game and were a telegraphed last play goal line stop of Cam away from being (1-1).

Seattle has a decent schedule set up ahead – DAL, at MIA, MIN. That could be three wins on the matchup, but Dallas this week is a lot like Seattle (hot offense, sloppy defense) and going to Miami is always trouble, and Minnesota should have Danielle Hunter back by then. Seattle should be (4-1) before their Week 6 bye, and then their conference games finally start.

New England played a sloppy/sluggish game vs. Miami Week 1 and won. They played an energetic/sloppy game Week 2 and lost. They’re in a good place to catch Las Vegas off that MNF game this week, but then go at KC Week 4, which they will get shredded. I think NE will be (3-2) going into their Week 6 bye…and I don’t know that they are definitely better than Buffalo for the AFC East title. But I’ll give NE grace…Belichick tends to play September as a feeling out process, and then they become lethal into October-November. A (3-2 or 3-3) start for NE is fine.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let me talk about the QBs here…

The talented running QBs are destroying (in a good way) the NFL. It’s becoming too easy. Defenses don’t know what to do. If they pressure the QB races by them. If they sit back and watch/worry about the QB run, good passing mobile QBs will shred them that way. Thus, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray for MVP…and Cam will be unable to hang with that higher end group over time.

Legalized holding in 2020 is offering more protection, advantage runner-passers. Both Russ and Cam are averaging over a nice 2.5 seconds of time in the pocket to throw.

One quick note on Russell Wilson (21-28 for 288 yards, 5 TDs/1 INT), that may mean nothing in 2020…

In 2019, Wilson was near the top of the FF PPG QB leaders after three weeks of the season. He had 7 TDs/0 INTs. He had run for 2 TDs. He logged a 300 and 400+ yard passing game.

However, from Week 4 on last season, he never threw for 300+ yards again all season. Six of his final 14 games were 0-1 TD passes in the game. He only ran for one other TD all season. In the playoffs he threw for 1 TD and 1 TD in his two games. He also fell from the top of the QB scoring to a solid #8 in PPG among QBs (4pts per pass TD)…behind Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Tannehill, among others.

I’m not saying Russ is bad or a fall is coming – just keep in perspective hot starts aren’t usually hot every week to the finish. Whether a player or an entire fantasy team…things have to play out over time.

Cam Newton (30-44 for 397 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) looked as good passing the ball, most of this game, as I’ve seen him in a while. He has a ton of time and finds options within it. Also, Seattle’s trying to lay claim to the worst pass coverage in the NFL. They are #1 with a bullet in most passing yards allowed so far this season. Seattle-Dallas Week 3 is going to be an ‘over’ on the points and an epic shootout of teams unable to cover or pressure so far this season (and Dallas has been crushed with injuries).

Cam Newton looks like a guy trying to get a $100M+ contract, so he’s going to take all the TDs he can get…especially rushing. I am totally in on Cam for fantasy 4pts per pass TD.

 -- Let’s talk about the WRs here on both sides. Important info…

NEW ENGLAND

Julian Edelman (8-179-0/11) looked fantastic in this game. Stunning. Cam-to-Edelman looks better than Brady-to-Edelman of the past few years. It may have been the Seattle defense…but wow are these two working well together. But, caution – Cam is usually a low volume passer, so Edelman may get catches but be erratic on yards/TDs. There could be a lot of 8-55-0 games coming, but also some 10-100+ games too. I’m ‘in’.

This is important…N’Keal Harry (8-72-0/12) looks terrible to me. I mean…I think I see a bust. Imagine if Davante Parker wasn’t as good an athlete…that’s Harry. He plays S-A-W-F-T. I can see it a mile away. He plays confused and scared. He has some talent. He can hang in the NFL, but future star – I’d bet against it hard, and I’d sell this week right here, right now.

Can he turn it around? Yes, but when I watch all the young and current rookie WRs over and over and see their movements and tendencies – Harry stands out as something is wrong. Too slow a foot, too much of his hand extended out, trying to pattycake push (not aggressively stiff arm) people away, too easy to tackle.

Because Harry is a SAWFT bust and because Julian Edelman is going to get a lot of attention and because the Pats have no threat at TE and because Damiere Byrd (6-72-0/9) has history with Cam and he is a pro WR, it’s Damiere Byrd as the sneaky #2 WR here for fantasy. In good matchups for Cam, Byrd is going to outperform Harry over time. He’s the WR to watch in all of this as a useful WR3/flex to work with here and there. Not a star, but just a useful name in a pinch in a good matchup.

Damiere Byrd is going to beat cheating-up-too-much/looking-run-too-much CB Damon Arnette for a deep ball play at least once Week 3…the question will be, can Cam get it to him.

SEATTLE

I was sure Belichick was going to double Tyler Lockett (7-67-1/8) and play off/give space to D.K. Metcalf (4-92-1/6) and force him to him to work short instead of his constant deep ball routes.

Well, watching this game. I see Lockett covered by linebackers a bunch and basically allowed to roam free…thus his good game. Then I see Stephon Gillmore pressing up on Metcalf and then getting boat raced deep by him.

When will the NFL learn what SEC CBs knew? Metcalf is going deep every play. He literally does whatever at first off the snap and then he ends up sprinting deep. There is no reason to worry about his stutter step or fake to the inside…assume he’s going deep every time like you’re playing him as if you  Marty McFly -- and you know history before it happens. DKM is a Greek god of a physique, so why do you think you can jam him off the snap and he won’t swat you away and then out-run you in a sprint from there? Just play back and start backpedaling before the snap, and force him into underneath routes that he drops constantly…or go back into centerfield waiting for him to run deep to you…he will. Nope…Gillmore right up in his face and Metcalf blowing right past him.

The Patriots earned this loss, this air raid on themselves. I’m really starting to wonder if the Pats defense was ever near as good as anyone thought because of that hot 1st-half last year? I mean, when they aren’t facing the Jets-Dolphins-Bills…it’s not been that special, no?

 -- Rookie SAF Kyle Dugger (6 tackles) played 11 snaps Week 1 with no stats but jumped to 54% of the snaps here and had a solid showing. He’s a talent and might be about to ‘start’ for the Pats in weeks to come.

 -- The NE-DST…

Weeks 1-8 of 2019: 22.6 FF PPG (FPros system) and the #1 FF DST by a mile

Weeks 9-17 of 2019 (when the schedule turned away from easy): 6.9 FF PPG and was the #14 FF DST.

The 2020 schedule isn’t cupcake like it was last season. Week 5 v. DEN, Week 9 v. NYJ look good, but not so hot all the other weeks in fantasy. I’m not very excited by this DST play in 2019.

Snap Counts of Interest:

45 = Olsen

31 = Dissly

40 = Carson

15 = Hyde

62 = Byrd

61 = Harry

52 = Edelman

51= Burkhead

15 = Michel

R.C. Fischer

FFM

25 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Packers 42, Lions 21

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

What’s there to say here? The Packers did Packers things and won easily. And the Lions did Lions things and lost…again. Nothing special happened – both teams were who we all thought they were.

Green Bay gets more of a test against the Saints Week 3. The schedule ahead is pretty easy after Week 3. They may have 1-2 games max. with 2020 playoff teams from Week 4 on. Green Bay is going to be in great shape to get a #1 seed as the NFC North crumbles around them.

As far as the Lions go…it’s the ‘waiting to fire Matt Patricia’ season. The GM is tied to Patricia, so there will not be a chance it happens in-season, most likely. Both HC and GM will be gone after the season unless a pure miracle happens.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The two WRs of FFM interest…

1) Marvin Jones (4-23-1/6) got covered by Jaire Alexander because Kenny Golladay was out again. Jones draws top coverage with KG out. The return of Golladay is a big help for Jones to be a steady WR2.

A very good schedule ahead…seven of their next 9 games are in a dome. Not in a dome…at JAX and at CAR.

Hold steady on Jones for the KG return, hopefully this week.

2) Allen Lazard (3-45-0/5)…I get the feeling you’re giving up on him. I think that’s a mistake. First off, Allen Lazard is like a faster, more athletic Mike Evans…and he’s still coming into his own.

His two missed targets…two near 20+ yard big plays, one a near TD. He also lost another play on a defensive P.I.

He’s got all the makings of a star…I know he’s in the shadow of Davante Adams, but it means he is getting lesser coverage and is open quite a bit. I see his usage, and the importance of the way he’s used, ticking up ever so slightly each week. On a big 4th & 6 early in the game from midfield, Rodgers whistled a bullet in the middle to a heavily covered, diving Lazard who made the catch and 1st-down.

This week, if Adams can play…and Marshon Lattimore blankets Adams – it might be the first 2020 breakout for Lazard. If Adams is out…then Lazard draws Lattimore and that’s a problem.

 -- Nothing more I can say about Aaron Jones (18-168-2, 4-68-1/8)…he can’t stop scoring TDs. I didn’t think he’d repeat his 2019, but he is so far. If you’d like…I’ll endorse him, you can trade your whole team for him, and then he’ll tear his ACL soon after I get on-board.

A.J. Dillon (5-17-0) is a million miles away at this point. He does mop up work in blowouts.

Anyways, I love Aaron Jones. Always have. He’s the best player in fantasy football. You should get him fast.

…hopefully you’re playing against him this week, and don’t own him for the hex I just put on him.

 -- D’Andre Swift (5-12-0, 5-60-0/5) looked a little more settled in this game. He was nervous/anxious Week 1. Much more under control, normal here. He’s become Theo Riddick in this scuffling offense. He’s going to have games like this every week…low rushing…sweet receiving…limited TDs.

If the Lions ever get ahead in a game, perish the thought, they will bang it with AP and Kerryon…and Swift will have a lesser Theo Riddick week.

You’re going to need a coaching change to get Swift to another level of offensive play/usage.

 -- Couple of IDP notes…

DET CB Jeff Okudah (7 tackles) debuted and was somewhere between OK and lost…but he’s a rookie in a debut against Aaron Rodgers and friends. Can’t fully judge him just yet, but he’s not C.J. Henderson.

I knew there was an issue with Matt Patricia and Tracy Walker (2 tackles, 2 PDs) back in the preseason…where Patricia was running him a bunch with the 2nd-team. I think there is an issue for sure. Walker played just 53% of the snaps this game. The IDP star of 2019 is in trouble in 2020.

I saw ‘word’ that they are working a ‘platoon’ with Walker and Will Harris, in the media this week. Walker can be dropped for greener pastures if you still own him.

GB DE Rashan Gary (4 tackles, 1.5 sacks) is one of the great wasted talents in football, in my mind. All the tools in the world but always underperforms/doesn’t care…kinda like Jadeveon Clowney. Anyway, Gary may have quietly turned a corner…he played 56% of the snaps this game (and 62% last game). He got two QB hits this week, but also two last week. Not a one-week blip apparently.

If Gary is going to show up, then Green bay just had an ‘A’ pass rusher fall out of the sky for them.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Lazard

46 = MVS

38 = Adams

35 = A Jones

31 = J Williams

28 = T Ervin

07 = Dillon

53 = Marvin

39 = Cephus

33 = Amendola

17 = M Hall

20 = Swift

19 = Kerryon

15 = AP

R.C. Fischer

FFM

25 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Raiders 34, Saints 24

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

I hope I can save some typing off my fingers with this one…it shouldn’t take too long to review.

Alvin Kamara faced Darren Waller in the Week 2 MNF game, and Waller won. Good night. Thanks for coming.

Two head coaching geniuses, long time football minds…and all they got is every play to Jacobs/Waller v. every play to Kamara/Thomas. Only Thomas was out so the Jacobs/Waller side won. The Saints never adjusted to the Waller onslaught and got beat. Good thing the Saints kept their top corner on WRs that the Raiders never throw to in 2020.

The Raiders are a playoff team. A team no one is going to want to play. Not the best team or a title team, but a good team. Jon Gruden is doing a very good job. Difficult schedule ahead (at NE, BUF, at KC next 3 weeks) but Vegas should be in the wild card hunt all season (and get one).

The Saints are good but fading. I think they may have peaked and are in decline. Still good but by the time we get to 2021, I don’t know that they’ll have the juice to get over the hump. This is their last stand/gasp season with Drew Brees. They are going to fight the Bucs all the way to the end for the NFC South title. If the Saints lose to Green Bay this week…some panic might start to set in.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I already stated the obvious…everything for FF with these two teams is Jacobs/Waller and Kamara/Thomas. Not much else to discuss at the other positions.

If Josh Jacobs (27-88-0, 3-17-0/3) is out this week…Devontae Booker (3-0-0, 1-6-0/1) would split with Jalen Richard (2-26-1)…and it wouldn’t be that excited on either, but it’s something if in need. Booker could grind a decent day with 15+ carries. I think Jacobs is just getting extra rest on a short week.

 -- The Raiders will not throw to their WRs unless they absolutely have to, and they hope never to do so apparently, so for that reason…’I’m out’ on Bryan Edwards (2-42-0/2) for redraft 2020. He will have his day to come and become a ‘playa’ but not right now.

He led all non-Waller Raiders in targets in this game…that’s good news, with the bad news being he had just 2 targets.

However, you did see a glimpse of what he brings to the table on his second catch and run play. He doesn’t look ready for a big role yet, he looked surprised when the ball comes his way, because likely they never throw to WRs in practice either. Someday…not today.

Ditto opinion on Henry Ruggs.

 -- Rookie TE Adam Trautman (1-17-0/1) got his first catch of his career. I watched his play over a few times – he just looks so stiff moving around the field. I just get a bad feeling on him.

 -- Tre’Quan Smith (5-86-0/7) is good for the moment but he’ll disappear when Michael Thomas returns. Brees never works the 2nd (or 3rd-4th-5th) WR all that well for FF. Smith saw more action with Thomas out. With Brees’s arm strength in decline…Tre’Quan being a deep ball receiver…not a good match at this time. Sell him hot when you can.

 -- The Raiders-DST is interesting…

A lot of talent accumulating, and man do they have some punishing hitters in the secondary. This might be an emerging DST in 2021, but maybe useful on good matchups this year – like Weeks 8-9-10 CLE-LAC-DEN.

Their current problem is that some of their DBs are so wanting to hit people, they cheat up off the snap and they’re going to get beat deep by a nice deep ball thrower. Mahomes-Hill may go for 500 yards each against them Week 5.

SAF Jonathan Abram (4 tackles, 1 PD) is literally going to kill someone one of these days. Every tackle he makes is accidental homicide potential.

The guy who stuck WAY out to me in this game…rookie CB Damon Arnette (7 tackles). He plays corner like a Pro Bowl safety already (he tackles everything in sight, with impunity)…but he also covers like a safety mentality as well. If Drew Brees had his old magic back, he would have air raided Arnette’s constant cheating up, and up in WR’s faces and getting pushed away off the snap too much and losing 2-3 steps in coverage every other time because he’s trying to fight the WR up close. I bet Belichick notices it for Week 3…which means Damiere Byrd is going to cash in on a long TD this week…if I’m right.

Where has Maxx Crosby (2 tackles, 1 PD) been? Slow start for him after a hot finish last year. Teams know who he is now…they’re also holding every pass rusher every other play these days because holding got legalized in the offseason in case you missed it. Some teams haven’t even been called for holding yet this year, I heard somewhere this morning. Seriously.

 -- I thought the Saints-DST was supposed to be so special? Well, they got it handed to them this game. They are good but never adjusted for Darren Waller and got thumped by it. Versus Green Bay this week? I don’t know…if Davante Adams is ready then this looks shaky too.

The Saints-DST perks up Weeks 7-8 with matchups vs. CAR and at CHI…but mostly they have so-so or bad matchups all season.

 -- Daniel Carlson (2/2 FGs, 4/4 XPs) dropped a 54-yard bomb in this game…his second 50+ yard FG this season already. I loved this kicker coming out of college. He might be finally coming into his own. He has ‘best kicker in the NFL’ type traits, I think. Whether it happens this year, we’ll see. He’s #3 in FF PK scoring right now.

Snap Counts of Interest:

49 = Ruggs

49 = Edwards

40 = Renfrow

32 = Moreau

26 = Witten

18 = Zay Jones

41 = Kamara

16 = Latavius

R.C. Fischer

FFM

25 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Chiefs 23, Chargers 20

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The Chargers played a perfect underdog, unorthodox role of a game here to try and outlast /rope-a-dope the Chiefs. It almost worked, but one thing you can always bet on – Anthony Lynn will find a way to ruin anything. Possibly the single worst head coach in the NFL. He may be a gem of a human and smart as a whip, I have no idea. I just watch his teams, his coaching decisions, and his press conferences and he’s so self-assured of his absolutely lunacy that it’s breathtaking to behold.

Adam Gase is getting a reprieve as the worst coach in the NFL the more Anthony Lynn says words to the media. Check out his answer to the question presented when this video opens up: https://youtu.be/g4PmgymlCoo?t=104

Way to pump up your QB who almost pulled off a miracle win over the defending champs!!! Anthony Lynn was PAINED to say something nice or even neutral about Justin Herbert. He was gritting his teeth and trying to find neutral niceties to move on from the subject. However, when he talks about Tyrod Taylor, he beams with pride…and you’re not allowed to question it.

No one could watch Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert play football and seriously choose Tyrod Taylor. Not only did Lynn do that – he’ll go back to Tyrod even if the Chargers win 2-3-4-5 games in a row with Herbert. This team, this offense is 100x better with Herbert, rookie and all. You cannot go with Tyrod Taylor and be a serious football mind. It’s not the 1980’s and 1990’s…rookie QBs aren’t the screw up of the time Anthony Lynn played football. Get the hell with the times, man!!!

Anthony Lynn will absolutely go with Tyrod Taylor the moment he can, and the more people complain about it…the more he will do it because you’re not going to tell him what to do, you’re an idiot.

…and if you don’t think he’s capable of doing the same jamming Justin Jackson back in over Joshua Kelley – then you are the idiot he thinks you are. You don’t understand football like he does.

The early voting for NFL MVP through two weeks…

#3) Kyler Murray

#2) Russell Wilson

#1) The Chargers team doctor

That’s callous, but football-wise…it’s truth. Tyrod Taylor looked awful against the vaunted defense of the Cincinnati Bengals. He was the worst QB that I saw on tape Week 1. He’s a joke in today’s era. Dwayne Haskins has more appeal. Not throwing interceptions is nice but it doesn’t mean you’re a great QB if you do nothing else but NOT throw INTs.

If I were Justin Jackson, I wouldn’t get near the trainer’s room…the team doc isn’t playing around. He knows who needs to be playing and who doesn’t, apparently.

Anthony Lynn better have a wine taster at his disposal at all team meals.

The Chargers could be (2-0) right now. Really, they should be (0-2). They should’ve lost to the Bengals...it was a fluke/weak win. Don’t be so sure Lynn won’t lose to Carolina this week. LAC should beat CAR and then go on to lose two in a row at TB, at NO. They’ll be (2-3) and likely on their way to (8-8) at best the way their schedule looks.

Another week in 2020, and another game the Chiefs mail in. Fortunately, they woke up and got serious when they started losing control of the game in the 4th-quarter. We’ll see if the Chiefs decide to play a game seriously from kickoff on against the Ravens this week. The Ravens ain’t the Chargers…Baltimore will beat the brakes off the Chiefs if they lollygag into this one. At Baltimore on a Monday Night, I suspect the Chiefs will come out to play.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The shocking debut of Justin Herbert (22-33 for 311 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 4-18-1) happened. No one saw it coming. At first, no one knew why. Tony Romo spent the first 5-10 minutes talking about the savvy of Anthony Lynn and him not being afraid to make bold moves, etc. – only to find out Tyrod was hurt last second was the reason.

Herbert looked so unfazed in his debut. Today’s rookies think the NFL is child’s play. The talented rookies do…that is. Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert already look like long time starters in their first game. This rookie QB wave of nice performance is going to push Tua Tagovailoa in as a starter ASAP – but I’m not sure Tua is near as ready or as talented as Burrow-Herbert. I very much think he is not, and the mainstream football media/scouting community is going to take a slap in the face on it. Tua was their unquestioned top guy at QB all along.

Herbert is decent for fantasy, but has some upside capped in an Anthony Lynn offense. Herbert probably fully can’t get unleashed until Lynn is gone, and that probably won’t happen for years. A bad fit/pairing of these two…unless Lynn is willing to change.

The only change Lynn wants is to change Herbert out for Tyrod Taylor.

 -- With Herbert starting…

Keenan Allen (7-96-0/10) goes back to being a top 15-20 WR for fantasy.

Hunter Henry (6-83-0/8) is viable as a TE1.

Mike Williams (2-14-0/4) drops way down because Herbert doesn’t have to force things to him when he’s never open. Herbert will find what’s open and not just panic and float balloons to Williams like Tyrod.

Reverse all these statements when/if Tyrod returns.

 -- Josh Kelley (23-64-0, 2-49-0/3) got a lot of carries this game… Anytime a fantasy GM sees 20+ carries, their heart skips a beat. Actually, it’s 20+ carries and ‘is a rookie’ that sends heart’s a flutter -- because Frank Gore had about this same game/stat line this week and no one cared.

Anthony Lynn is going to start/use/split two running backs. He tells us this all the time, any chance he gets. Austin Ekeler (16-93-0, 4-55-0/4) is his guy and Kelley is there as ‘1b’, for now.

If Ekeler goes down, Justin Jackson will split with Kelley in some way.

Most games it will be a 60/40 split with Ekeler-Kelley, with a commitment to stick to the run no matter what. Kelley will be 10-15 carries and 0-4 targets a game with Herbert…and 10-15 carries with 0-2 targets per game with Tyrod, as long as Ekeler is there.

There will be more running room for the RBs with Herbert at QB, because teams do not fear Tyrod…and thus crowd up on the run game.

There will be more targets to the RBs with Herbert, because Herbert knows how to play QB…Tyrod looks to float balloons downfield or scramble or throw passes blindly into crowds. He looks at one receiver and throws, and it’s normally not any check downs because Tyrod doesn’t have time to check down because he treats the ball as a hot potato to get rid of to a predetermined receiver before the snap.  

Your Kelley value is safe with Herbert, but it’s limited most weeks. RB2 with some RB1 and RB3 weeks. His value drops with Tyrod to RB2-3 more times than not.

 -- What’s funny about watching Kelley in this game and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (10-38-0, 6-32-0/8) is you couldn’t tell which one was better…both look very similarly good. But one was drafted in the 1st-round because he was seen on TV a lot. The other drafted 4th-round because ‘who watches PAC 12 football anyway?’

Great scouting logic and study again by the NFL.

 -- Would I bench Mahomes-Tyreek against the Ravens this week? Probably not. I don’t ever bench Tyreek.

Patrick Mahomes (24-47 for 302 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 6-54-0)…I would consider if I had the right 2nd QB in the right matchup. But mostly, you can’t sit Mahomes unless a 4pts pass TD only QB scoring league. Then you can get friskier in a matchup where the Ravens defense is very good + their offense could hold the ball for 40 minutes and be a repeat pattern of this LAC game.

 -- I was watching Chiefs rookie DE Michael Danna (3 tackles, 1 sack) work in this game…he’s a pretty solid rookie getting decent playing time right off the bat. About 50% of the snaps played. I don’t know that he’s a star, but he’s out of the gates pretty well for a rookie.

On the subject of KC DLs…Tanoh Kpassagnon (4 tackles, 1 PD), the extra tall D-End, played 94% of the snaps in this game. 83% last week…that’s pretty radical for a defensive end who is usually rotational. No big numbers yet, but he’s playing a lot.

 -- How good (or not) is the Chargers’ defense?

#5 in points allowed (and having just played/handled KC pretty well)

#11 best in yards per play allowed.

#9 in QB hits.

Middle of the pack in run defense, sacks, 3rd-down % allowed.

Two legit top cover corners. A legit linebacker in the middle now. Good D-Line. It’s a good unit overall.

Facing Teddy this week is going to be favorable.

At TB, at NO could be shaky, or could be not-so-bad. Brady and Brees aren’t going to like this pressure. Not a great Weeks 4-5 play but do-able. Then Weeks 6-7 with NYJ-MIA is great if you can get to it.

Snap Counts of Interest:

47 = Ekeler

43 = Kelley

48 = Edwards-Helaire

15 = D Thompson

10 = D Williams

R.C. Fischer

FFM

24 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Rams 37, Eagles 19

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The Rams stormed out to a 21-3 early 2nd-quarter lead and it looked like a blowout was at hand. However, the Eagles climbed back into – cutting the lead to 24-19 early 4th-quarter. The Rams stepped on the accelerator again and put Philly away 37-19.

The Rams are just playing fundamental football. Jared Goff is being smart. The Rams defense has been solid. They are getting up quickly in games and letting the opposing team make the mistakes. They are not great, but they are good…and winning. A hiccup might come this week against another sound team – the Bills. Buffalo is not likely to be outsmarted or outhustled by the Rams.

The Eagles are playing for their lives this week. If they lose to the Bengals and fall to (0-3) there may be a different kind of rioting in Philadelphia. They face at SF, at PIT, BAL Weeks 4-5-6. The Eagles are staring at a 1-5/0-6 start. Get your Jalen Hurts lottery tickets ready to go.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let me talk about the five RBs involved in this game, and I’ll list them in reverse order of best-talent-to-worst-talent…so, we start with the least talented. This doesn’t mean worst/least for FF…just my scouting eye best and worst on-field talents…

#5) Cam Akers (3-13-0/5) – He’s not terrible, but he’s very inexperienced and making the least impact right now. He may miss a week or two with his rib injury.

#4) Malcolm Brown (11-47-0) – Solid, experienced but his FF-value goes up in smoke when Darrell Henderson got his shot.

#3) Miles Sanders (20-95-1, 3-36-0/7) – He’s a perfectly fine RB but he’s not a stud or star…he's a guy getting carries for emotional reasons. They ‘love’ him. The media has pushed him so hard everyone just assumes he’s great. Every time I watch him, I walk away unimpressed. Not that he isn’t worthy of the NFL, but he should not be the centerpiece of an NFL offense. The Eagles have done this to themselves.

Sanders will be fine, probably great for FF because the Eagles have nothing else. They’re all-in on a ‘C’ grade RB.

#2) Boston Scott (4-19-0, 3-24-0/3) – He should be in a 50/50 split with Sanders but isn’t. Every time I watch an Eagles game and see Scott running inside, I wonder why Scott isn’t the clear starter over Sanders. Scott, for his size, is a tough runner…but also very fleet of foot, really fleet of foot. I’d almost consider him #1 here.

The Eagles don’t see him that way so all you can do is hold/wait for a Sanders injury. Scott is the kind of back that will get overlooked forever, only given a chance if injury forces it.

#1) Darrell Henderson (12-81-1, 2-4-0-0/3) – Speaking of the kind of back that gets overlooked forever…

It was a good week for my scouting career…we saw Kyler and Diontae really come into their own Week 2 and show that they are real. I went back and looked and saw my CFM scouting grades re-remembered we had Chase Claypool as the #1 most talented/highest-graded NFL WR prospect for the 2020 NFL Draft…and no one else would have had him close to that, and it seemed silly a few weeks/months ago. How about now? Then there was the unplanned emergence of Darrell Henderson here. It’s been a good week even if all my fantasy players are getting hurt/gone for the season.

If Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown don’t get hurt here…Henderson stays buried. But they both got hurt, and Henderson finally got extra work…and a quasi-star was born. Henderson has some of the traits of Boston Scott, only Hendo is bigger and stronger/tougher. Henderson is like if peak Devonta Freeman was a great athlete too – smaller/compact brick wall runner but with speed and hops.

Henderson had big/long runs in this game, he had nice screen pass plays, he caught long passes down the field, he blew up defenders for second chance yards (and for his TD). He did it all in 29 snaps (42%) of the game played.

In a normal world, this would mean Henderson is in line for more work or the starting role going forward. But this is the NFL, and Cam Akers is supposed to be a magical unicorn rookie…and the Rams can’t have you knowing they valued Akers more than Henderson to start 2020. So, you think this is the beginning of a DH uprising…but we’ll see. It will be eventually…just not willingly or quickly.

If Akers plays, Henderson might get 3-4 touches and comments after the game that ‘we gotta get Henderson the ball more’ (the kiss of death). If Akers is out, then Henderson gets another serious shot to steal all the gold here and force the Rams to make him the main guy (whether he starts or not).

Henderson’s day is coming, but how fast depends upon Akers’ ribs. I’d guess the Rams would hold Akers out this week…why wouldn’t they? If so, get excited for DH…except Buffalo has a high-ranked run defense…except they’ve played the two worst run teams in the league to get there so far. My Henderson rankings are based around Akers playing or not.

Outside of that…take a bow – Darrell Henderson is no longer a ‘concept’. He is real. It really happened Week 2…and he’s still inexperienced/has upside, much upside to run.

 -- So, speaking of nice FFM moments…Tyler Higbee (5-54-3/5) scored 3 TDs this week. I didn’t predict Higbee would be a star coming out of college, I was just willing to take the ride Higbee was showing us he could go on late last season.

Five breakout performances last year + his two games this year…Higbee’s last 7 games:

7.3 rec., 88.0 yards, 0.58 TDs per game

12.2 FF PPG/19.5 PPR PPG for fantasy in that time span – both these FF PPG numbers would have been #1 with a bullet in the 2019 season among TEs.

So far this season, he’s #3 in non-PPR, #5 in PPR PPG among TEs…pushed by the huge Week 2.

But what about the low targeting? Targeting is nice, but I like completions/catches better. Sometimes a lot of targeting is just a lot of errant throwing. I’d like high catches AND high targets, but I don’t want to thumb my nose at good/high catches/yards/TDs because I’m whining about targets. Logan Thomas gets more targets, but will he score for FF off them because of Haskins misfirings?

Higbee is a strong TE1 this season, we’ll see how strong as we go.

 -- I was wrong about Van Jefferson (4-45-0/5). I thought he’d struggle to transition to the NFL more than he has. I thought he might be a bit too soft as a receiver. I think he might struggle with better coverage/attention but he’s getting to be the under-the-radar guy for LAR and it works OK.

Jefferson’s rise takes food out of the mouths of Woods-Kupp, just enough to throw back to WR2s not WR1s.

 -- Jared Goff (20-27 for 267 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) numbers since the Higbee uprising/offensive change to the passing game:

14 TDs/5 INTs…2.0 TDs per game and 312.1 yards passing per game.

This is a guy the media/fantasy experts have hated for years. I don’t know why.

There are better FF QBs for sure, but Goff is not a dud or anything.

…and if anyone has a question of the better QB/draft pick…Goff or Wentz (26-432 for 242 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) – then you’re a fool.

 -- If/when I’m right about Jalen Hurts going to QB over Wentz, several things are going to change/happen that will shake some FF landscapes.

If the Eagles fall to (1-5) or possibly if they lose to Cincy this week, and Hurts takes over whenever, then…

1) Hurts becomes an interesting QB in 4pts per pass TD leagues…like a 200 +/- yards passing, a passing TD, 15 rushes for 50-80 yards and TDs a game type of QB for FF. A small-scale Lamar.

This change could happen just to save the O-Line issues…it’s not fair to Wentz to try and work behind it and their terrible WRs.

2) We don’t know what WRs, if any, would be viable with Hurts. Reagor would have made the most sense.

3) If Philly goes down, Zach Ertz could be traded…and his value then drops for FF.

Dallas Goedert would be a winner from Ertz gone, for sure, except Hurts is not going to be a high-volume passer. Goedert might be a junior Mark Andrews for junior-Lamar…but that’s better for non-PPR, shakier for PPR (at a high level).

If Philly loses to Cincy this week, buckle up for the fireworks and winds of change starting to blow.

4) It won’t help Miles Sanders reach new heights as Hurts takes ground game and short TDs away. Hurts is better built to be an NFL tail back than Sanders.

 -- Micah Kizer (15 tackles, 1 PD, 1 FF) looks solid for LAR as their new ILB. He works fine. But for FF it was aces last week. He’s averaging 11.0 total tackles per game so far and is #4 in IDP PPG among LBs so far this season.

 -- The Rams-DST has allowed 17 and 19 points to opponents so far – that’s good…3rd-best in the NFL. But for FF, they are #21 in sacks and are #18 in yards allowed. They are playing safe/sound football without a lot of FF scoring fireworks so far. The Philly matchup was supposed to be fireworks for sacks but they got none (and no TFLs)…and just 3 QB hits.

Snap Counts of Interest:

67 = Ertz

63 = Goedert

60 = Reagor

55 = DeSean

23 = JJAW

13 = Ward

03 = Jalen Hurts

55 = Sanders

13 = Scott

59 = Higbee

59 = Kupp

59 = Woods

42 = JReynolds

26 = Van Jefferson

37 = M Brown

29 = D Henderson

03 = Akers

R.C. Fischer

FFM

24 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 2 Game Analysis: Cardinals 30, Washington 15

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The Cardinals were toying with the Football Team all game…it was 27-3 early into the 4th-quarter with no threat of a Washington comeback. Washington added two late garbage TDs, because that’s the only time Haskins can complete passes to his own team (is when the defense is in prevent). It was 30-15 final, 15-point win that was more like a 25+ point gap between the teams.

Arizona did the same thing to Washington they did to San Fran Week 1…quick passes to neutralize the pass rush with Kyler running a lot to put them on their heels.

Washington couldn’t do what they did Week 1…against Philly they logged 28 combined QB Hits + TFLs in the game, amounts of 20+ I rarely ever see in games. In this game, just 6 combined QB Hits + TFLs. They only hit Kyler two times. When Kyler has time…it’s over. Kyler is manufacturing time with his feet and defenses are either dying via the quick pass and/or purposeful run when they try to rush, or when they sit back to worry about Kyler running then Murray just starts picking them apart through the air.

Kyler is playing MVP ball right now.

Arizona is very likely to be (5-0) ahead…DET, at CAR, at NYJ… three of the worst teams in the NFL. Then the schedule gets serious, but the way Arizona is playing they have a great shot at 10-6 or better, and an NFC West division title now that the 49ers are falling apart. Long way to go though.

Washington is going nowhere until they pull Dwayne Haskins, which is a shame they don’t know because they could contend for the NFC East title with Alex Smith.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Of course, we gotta talk Kyler (26-38 for 286 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 8-67-2)…

I already touched on what he’s doing this year to go to another level – purposefully running which is changing defensive pressure. If you come after him, he’s taking off or quick passing. If you lay back, he will eat you alive as a passer.

He could be the best dual threat QB of all-time at the rate he’s going. Michael Vick and Lamar Jackson are more lethal runners, but Kyler is an incredible passer from the pocket on a much higher level than Vick or Lamar…although Lamar can flick it like no one’s business. Lamar and Kyler are going to change football forever…or they’re the first of many to come like them.

Last year, Kyler didn’t run on purpose as much and didn’t have time to throw as needed…not this year. And if he can blow through SF and WAS high pressure fronts, he’s going to destroy DET-CAR-NYJ the next three weeks…if he wants to (please don’t just handoff and walk away with quiet wins…GO FOR THE FF JUGULAR!!).

Couple side notes on Kyler here…

*Just missed/left on the table another 30-70 yards passing. Some near miss bombs and an overthrow or two. Nothing egregious…just noting there was almost a crazy good day here.

*Also, Kyler ran for a TD first drive and it got called back for some BS penalty…so, he passed for the TD a few plays later. Could’ve been another small FF point boost in standard leagues.

 -- Because Kyler is taking over the run game, it’s drying up things for Kenyan Drake (20-86-0, 2-9-0/2). Not as many TD runs available to Drake and Kyler isn’t much for a dump-off-to-RB passing game. Drake is going to be an RB2 through this season with more RB3 moments than RB1 ones, I’m afraid, for KD owners. But he’ll be stable.

 -- Kyler either runs it or throws to DeAndre Hopkins (8-68-1/9)…I’m not sure there has been another play besides those for Arizona. On those rare other plays…

Christian Kirk (2-57-0/4) is relegated to deep ball shot guy. He’s not involved otherwise. There will be a game soon where Kirk goes 4-127-1 or something like it…where he makes some big catches/deep balls and makes hay out of it but over time he’ll just be 1-3 catches per game and hoping for a homerun ball to land his way. He might as well not even exist for FF right now. When he has his big game…you’ll have him on your bench.

Andy Isabella (2-67-0/2) is better than Kirk in that role, and he’s starting to see more time and looks. He looks fantastic. He could be a star WR – but not on this team. He’s just a role player.

I think Arizona will trade Kirk and could elevate Isabella to his role before the trade deadline. Where will Kirk go? Who knows? There could be so many injuries to deal with between now and then. Watch out for the Saints…but likely Arizona would want to trade him out of the NFC. Perhaps the Colts should take a look. Maybe the Browns will trade OBJ for Kirk…

Dan Arnold (2-26-0/4) was supposed to be so key in this offense. He’s playing a lot, but like anyone not named DeAndre Hopkins…there aren't many on-Hopkins touches to deal with regularly. He’s a TE2/bye week flyer.

 -- Antonio Gibson (13-55-1, 1-0-0/2) still looks a bit sketchy as a lead RB. I mean, physically he looks great/dominant. When he has space he’s really working well. I see Gibson getting more comfortable two weeks in, but there’s still work to do.

The Washington RB that most impressed me here…J.D. McKissic (8-57-0). He got real running plays on purpose and looked like a Phillip Lindsay/Austin Ekeler type runner. He was gashing Arizona. Why they didn’t stick with him more is always ‘the NFL’…they’re allergic to successful things. Nothing gets in the way of their game plan, not even things working well.

Don’t lose sight of McKissic. He might rise up into a 6-10 carry, couple of targets a game guy after this showing. And if Alex Smith (or Kyle Allen) ever take over…his PPR effectiveness will jump dramatically.

 -- Steven Sims (3-53-0/5) is so good…and he’s so going to waste with Dwayne Haskins. Again, nothing will get in the way of the NFL ‘plan’. Alex Smith or Kyle Allen (or Case Keenum) could really help manage this young team and possibly make a run at the NFC East title with their defensive pressure. But no chance of that with Haskins. Sims goes to waste as a WR3-4 until a change is made, a week-to-week flyer hoping he gets his big play. He almost got them here, but didn’t.

A QB change is likely in a few weeks, so if you can hold on until then (in deeper leagues)…

 -- Haskins does throw to Logan Thomas (4-26-0/9) a lot, but don’t let the lofty targets fool you…I think Haskins is so awful at QB he feels better seeing the tallest guy on the field and throwing it to him because Haskins cannot read defenses or things under any pressure, he’s a ‘see quick and throw’, whether covered or not. Thomas stands out to Haskins’ eyes to throw to because he stands out height-wise.

Just a theory…

…that I’m right about. I’ve seen it many times before.

Thomas is very dicey for FF consistency.

 -- How about that Arizona-DST? #10 DST in fantasy right now. They have Stafford-Teddy-Darnold ahead. Might be useable. I don’t love the Stafford or Teddy matchups a super amount, but plausible.

De’Vondre Campbell (10 tackles, 2 TFLs, 2 PDs) is the early Defensive Player of the Year in my book (not in anyone else’s). He’s changed the landscape of the linebackers and covering TEs…not Isaiah Simmons, who barely plays and was a wasted draft pick opportunity.

Campbell is averaging 8.5 total tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 1.0 PDs per game.

Chris Banjo (9 tackles) has been fantastic as well. He’s averaging 7.5 total tackles per game as the starting safety now.

 -- What about the vaunted Washington-DST? So good Week 1…so rough here. That’s why I wasn’t gung ho going into last week’s games with WASH.

Like I said in the intro…Kyler neutralized the pass rushers like a snake charmer. It’s a better matchup for the FC in Week 3 at CLE. Then Week 4 vs. BAL is a potential nightmare.

They are going to be an up and down streamer all year. We still don’t know how good they are because it’s an epic D-Line and a disaster linebacker group. They almost cancel each other out like when I eat a giant piece of my wife’s famous cheesecake and drink a Diet Dr. Pepper with it…the diet soda cancels out the calories from the cake, right?

Snap Counts of Interest:

75 = Hopkins

61 = Fitz

47 = Kirk

14 = Isabella

50 = Drake

27 = Edmonds

42 = Gibson

29 = McKissic

01 = Barber

07 = Isaiah Simmons