- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Vikings 27, Jaguars 24 OT
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was my Survivor pool pick (Minnesota) and I felt great about…until the opening drive the Jacksonville ended with Mike Glennon throwing a pick right to Harrison Smith near the goal line, who butchered the grab, the ball deflected off his hands, changed directions…right into Laviska Shenault’s awaiting arms for a cheap TD.
I felt like we could overcome that lucky start easily, and then the Jags got the ball back and kicked a field goal to go up 9-0…and this wasn’t how this was supposed to go!
Minnesota drove right back and scored on the next series…OK, this is good…then they missed the XP. This wasn’t going to be my day. It’s OK…it’s only 9-6 Jags, we’re fine…then Kirk Cousins threw a pick six and now it was 16-6, and I’m like…this wasn’t meant to be. MIN starting LB Eric Kendricks going down minutes before the game started was a sign that this was going to go bad. I knew it.
Minnesota got the lead back late 3rd-quarter, and I felt better again…19-16 MIN…then a Vikings safety to go up 21-16…then a Minny field goal with 3:50 left to go up 24-16. All we needed was a stop against a Jags team that hasn’t scored a TD since/except the lucky deflection pass TD on the very first series 1st-series. They would have to score a real TD, THEN convert the 2-pointer. No way. It’s in the bag.
Not in the bag…the Jaguars scored a TD and then converted the 2-pointer to tie the game and we went to OT. Back and forth with ineptitude until finally Dan Bailey kicked the chip shot FG with 1:49 left to get the Survivor win in the bank – off we go to Week 14.
Minnesota played a lazy, mediocre game and were the better team but were very lucky to win. They are now (6-6) and firmly in the wild card chase. HUGE game with Tampa Bay Week 14. If they can win it…they look great for the wild card (and sends TB reeling). If they lose, they’ll likely finish (8-8) on the season…and that’s probably good enough for the last wild card spot #7, possibly the #6 seed.
Jacksonville continues on hoping the Jets lose so the Jags can lay claim to the #1 pick/Trevor Lawrence. The FF values of D.J. Chark and Denzel Mims (among others) hang in the balance! Jacksonville will go (1-15) but have to hope the Jets have some horrific weather game to try and actually win from here on in.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Two games in as a starter, and Mike Glennon (28-42 for 280 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) looks perfectly OK/comfortable as a starter. He’s not good. He wilts under pressure. Keep him protected and he’s plausible/can run the offense.
Glennon’s TD pass was that sure INT deflected/re-routed into a TD pass…or we would have had 0 TDs/3 INTs here, potentially. Gardner Minshew is back and should be starting…but if you want a sign that either the Jags are trying to low key subvert wins, or that Doug Marrone is a terrible head coach – not starting Minshew over Glennon is the sign. Even the players have to realize this, that’s why I want to bet against the Jags every week – they are set up to lose, it’s just will they be within/cover on the point spread.
No serious NFL head coach in their right mind starts Glennon over Minshew…especially in a lost season. You’d start the young player and let them try and work themselves into value for trade or prep for being a backup to your rookie QB, etc. You start Glennon because you’re try to aid and abed getting to the #1 pick.
Same reason you keep Marrone coaching. Jags’ management doesn’t want a spark created by a coaching change and accidentally win a game and blow this. You can’t just be obvious about things, so these are the things you do -- start Glennon/bench Minshew (it’s unfair to Minshew, but they don’t care...it’s dog-eat-dog). To them, getting Trevor Lawrence will change their franchise for a decade – it’s serious business to keep losing.
-- Who is Glennon working in the passing game after his two starts?
D.J. Chark (2-41-0/7) returned from his injury and had all the coverage attention and Glennon avoided or couldn’t connect with him all game – and that’s with a young/struggling CB group with Minnesota. If this doesn’t work against them/the Vikes CBs – what chance is there ahead? DJC is a WR3, but in 2021…he could be the #1 WR in a contract year with Trevor Lawrence.
It’s not Keelan Cole (1-7-0/2) as a Glennon preference…two targets this game, and averaging 2.0 rec., 25.5 yards per game with Glennon in his 2 starts.
Collin Johnson (4-66-0/6) is the main thing working for Glennon. It’s the best of all worlds here. Glennon would have spent the most time all year working the backup group offense with Johnson all season. Johnson is super tall, so Glennon can see him/high point desperation throw to him. And Johnson will be the receiver getting the least coverage game-to-game. Collin is averaging 3.0 rec., 81.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game with Glennon.
Tyler Eifert (6-45-0/6) has become plausible-ish under Glennon…4.5 rec., 30.5 yards, 0.5 TDs per game with him. That’s TE1 money these days. Hard to bet on…but it’s something. He is playing 60%+ of the game snaps with Glennon these days.
-- Make it three games in-a-row for Kirk Cousins (28-43 for 305 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) with 3 passing TDs in a game. Make it four of his last 5 games with 3 TD passes in a game. Make it five of his last 7 games with 3 TD passes in a game.
Everyone can focus all they want on ‘letting Russ cook’, but since Week 6…
24.17 FF PPG (4pts per TD) = R Wilson
24.15 FF PPG = Cousins (#9 QB overall in PPG in that span)
20.87 FF PPG = Brady
18.33 FF PPG = Big Ben
If you flip that board to 6pts per pass TD…Cousins jumps past Russ…Lamar…Josh Allen to become the #6 FF scorer in PPG since Week 6.
When will we demand Kirk be allowed to not-Cook(Dalvin)?
In this ‘since Week 6’ span…Justin Jefferson (9-121-1/12) is the #3 PPR PPG WR in fantasy, behind only Davante and Tyreek.
-- None of the Vikings’ TE matters for FF, but…
Kyle Rudolph (0-0-0/2) is hurt and may miss Week 14.
Irv Smith has had a groin injury holding him out for weeks now, and he’s likely to be out Week 14 – but if you see Smith getting back in with Rudolph out…that’s some FF hope.
If both Rudolph and Smith are out, Tyler Conklin (1-10-0/1) would be the main pass catching TE…and he’s a decent receiving TE who has been buried in Minnesota for years. He would be a shock fantasy TE for Week 14 with the two starters out.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Rudolph
59 = Conklin
62 = Chark
49 = Cole
39 = C Johnson
25 = Shenault
08 = Conley
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Patriots 45, Chargers 0
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Not sure I can add any fresh analysis that the final score did not already make clear on this game.
A punt return TD. A blocked field goal TD. The Patriots win a game 45-0 where they passed the ball for 69 yards. This one WAS as bad as the score indicated.
The only shocking news was the Chargers did NOT fire Anthony Lynn after this game. What does a guy gotta do to get fired around here? How will Lynn top this coaching gem? Tune in next week as the Chargers host the Falcons.
It’s OK for LAC to dump Lynn now, the have my blessing -- I got my ‘under’ win total bet of ‘under’ 7.5 wins on LAC in the books. You’re free to try to win games now.
The Chargers are (3-9) and they should win at least one more game this year, but with the Chargers committing to Lynn through the end of the season…losing out from here is definitively on the table!
New England won’t die…they are now (6-6) and winners of four of their last 5 games. I don’t care if the Browns win out, win the AFC North, and go on to win the Super Bowl – Bill Belichick has to be the leader for Coach of the Year honors this season. It’s simply remarkable what he’s done minus Brady and Edelman/with Cam…especially if he gets to the playoffs somehow.
We project the Pats to go (8-8), and that won’t get them into the playoffs. Just short. They face the Rams and Bills in the next three weeks…the #2-3 best teams in the NFL. The wrong time to catch those teams needing to find three wins the next 4 games – but if anyone can do it it’s Belichick.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First things first… Use this Justin Herbert (26-53 for 209 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) bad stat line to go buy him Dynasty, if you’ve been wanting in…if the trading window is still open in your league. If he meanders to the finish line, output-wise – then we’re all over this for the Dynasty offseason.
The QBs who matter for FF 2021 and into the future…
Mahomes-Allen-Herbert-Murray
If you don’t own at least one, you’re not set for the future. I don’t want to hear about ‘I hate my RB depth’. You either have one of these 4 QBs or you’re playing fantasy from behind into the future. You should hope to have two of them for your Dynasty team, but having one is of utmost importance.
Dak and Deshaun and Russ…you’re settling short, but they’re in the next wave behind the first tier.
This QB group of four is ‘important’ in 4 points per pass TD leagues.
It is ‘extremely’ important in 6 points per pass TD leagues.
We will be discussing these four QB’s valuations and trade potentials all offseason with the FFM Dynasty Offseason content, starting in January 2021.
Who Herbert’s coach is in 2021 changes the landscape of his valuation into the future.
-- Another Chargers rookie is busting out…LB Kenneth Murray (14 tackles, 12 solo, 1.0 sack, 2.0 TFLs) put in a game here that was a glimpse into the future of a top 5 IDP linebacker for next week and ahead for many years.
This tape was terrific. Murray was planted in the middle because of all the injuries to guys otherwise – no more roaming from inside-to-outside. And when all the other LAC players seemed to be mailing it in…Murray was playing turned up to ‘10’ all game. He had his 12 solo tackles starting the 4th-quarter.
Sure, the Pats ran the ball for 165 yards, but they also ran it 43 times…for just 3.8 yards per carry. I think Anthony Lynn found his answer in the middle…but I’m sure he’ll turn back to failure Denzel Perryman if he gets the chance. If Perryman or Kyzir White are active ahead, then you can be skeptical of what Lynn will do with Murray for IDP. But in 2021, Lynn won’t be there to mess it up.
What Murray showed here was elite middle linebacker play. He was very hard to block, and sometimes he just shoved blockers away with brute force while standing almost still. You rarely see Murray getting blown backwards on a one-on-one block. He was hammering ballcarriers too…not just ‘in the neighborhood’ or gently wrapping/lassoing them to the ground – no, it was grown ass man tackles.
I think his time may have arrived. Be careful Lynn doesn’t muck it up by moving him to OLB type play in the next few weeks.
-- I thought Damien Harris (16-80-0, 1-15-0/1) was moved into a split with Sony Michel (10-35-0, 1-23-0/1) this game, just looking at the final numbers. I was hoping Michel wouldn’t even be active or play much the ROS, as a Harris holder in some places…but Michel was alive and well here.
However, watching the game – it’s still Harris as ‘the guy’, but then losing all the FF-goodness to others (Cam takes all the rushing TDs, and White takes the catches)…BUT he’s not ‘splitting’ with Michel, per se…not in this game. Michel got decent touch totals because this game became a joke and no need to run Harris 5,000 times.
I can’t trust Harris for big FF numbers because of the Cam/PPR issues, BUT I think he is going to be the 15+ carry a game guy for whatever it is worth.
Since becoming ‘the man’, Harris is averaging 71.2 rushing yards per game…a 1,139 yard 16-game season trend with 5.1 yards per carry. He’s low key one of the best RBs in the NFL right now.
We’ll be discussing his 2021+ future and dynasty valuation all offseason as well.
-- Josh Kelley (0-0-0, 2-3-0/2) was much more coveted than Damien Harris to start FF 2020, but look where we are now. Fallen behind Kalen Ballage.
A new coach headed to LAC in 2021, so a reset and rethink on his FF-valuation is coming.
-- Donald Parham (2-21-0/4) had 4 targets in this game…Hunter Henry (1-5-0/2) had two. It was probably due to the game flow, but Parham is getting a little more involved as we go…such a huge, unique target for Herbert.
He’s moving up the Dynasty Stash ranking a little bit this week on the next update.
-- The Patriots-DST is rolling, but rocky outlook to the FF-finish…at LAR, at MIA, BUF. Only the Miami game stands out as a great one. You can cross your fingers on the Rams matchup. Could be OK. It’s a huge game on national TV.
Snap Counts of Interest:
43 = Ekeler
27 = Ballage
03 = Kelley
41 = H Henry
19 = Parham
33 = Dam Harris
22 = Michel
19 = J White
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Rams 38, Cardinals 28
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
*Re-reading this before publishing…I’m not sure my intro even makes sense, but it was a stream of consciousness thought that made sense to try to connect to, but not sure it landed. Oh, well…they can’t all be Pulitzer worthy. Trying to spice it up. You be the judge…
This game analysis depends upon the analyst’s perspective.
It’s like our current U.S. news media.
Something happens. The media member/organization reports on the event through the lens of whatever belief system they hold.
If a meteorite crashed into your house, you might see the following reports on the news...as examples to try and paint my case for how it happens in football:
*The actual event: Meteor comes out of nowhere to destroy a local citizen’s home, befuddling scientists.
Alternative reporting…
*Homeless population grows in our city, and we’ll interview the recently homeless person who lost their house due to a global warming caused space event.
*Beautiful falling star sighted in our area last night.
*Donald Trump colluded with the Russians to bomb a local man’s house.
*Joe Biden colluded with China to allow Space Aliens to protest the concept of home ownership.
*Gender neutral, racist space rock targets low-income housing area.
You get the point. We see what we want to see…whether we realize it or not. It happens with football coverage all the time.
How does this relate to the Rams-Cardinals game? Well, I’ve heard all kinds of analysis about this game…and after re-watching the game, it’s aggravating me how silly analysis is in general.
Basically, football analysis in a given week is a template: (1) Winning team is fine/mostly immune from overall criticism. (2) Losing team…everything is wrong, and things need to be changed.
The analysis of this game seems to be: Arizona is bad. Kyler Murray is too short. Rams are lucky to win because Arizona is so bad.
This simplistic analysis begins with a lot of bad precepts, like…underrating the Rams, so when Arizona loses to them it seems terrible of the Cardinals to do. Analysts then rush to a microphone or laptop to say, “See, I told you Kyler wasn’t a legit NFL QB!” This from, the same people who were gushing over him as the future great after Weeks 4-5-6 this season. If Arizona wins next week, and Kyler racks up numbers…they’ll be back on Kyler.
THEY (the football media) come into this game HATING Jared Goff. To THEM, Goff is a rube and a backup talent. When he has a bad game…”See, we told you Goff stinks…what a terrible contract…the Rams can’t win with Goff.” When Goff plays well/the Rams win, “See how Sean McVay helps (incompetent) Goff with magical play calling? Rams win despite Goff’s shortcomings!”
Nothing is ever good enough for these people. They latch onto a scouting concept early on and they never let it go, and report everything through that lens for years. They should be GUSHING over what Josh Allen did Monday night…they aren’t even hardly acknowledging it. But they’ll do 500 story angles on “Lamar Jackson is back!” because he won a game against the shitty Cowboys, while they ignore or make excuses for Goff/the Rams or Allen/the Bills winning.
I would argue the Bills are the 2nd best team in football, and the Rams are 3rd…both could beat the Chiefs…or both lose to them. They’re all top teams in the league, but THEY see KC way above them all and there’s no way Buffalo and the LA Rams could be any good with Josh Allen and Jared Goff at the helm, so the lack of reporting/enthusiasm by them effects all of us…we’re gaslighted to think we’re the crazy ones. Why, EVERYONE knows Josh Allen is just on a hot streak that will end soon… Why, EVERYONE knows Jared Goff secretly stinks… Why, EVERYONE can see how great Tua Tagovailoa is playing.
We are being lied to hourly because they are terrible at analysis and they never go back and look at all these games and do that persistent research day after day after day.
But I do.
My agenda is getting them right…seeing what others might not be seeing and exploiting that for my/your hopeful gain.
If you look at this LAR-ARI game from the perspective of the Rams as a top NFL team with (for my money) the single best defense in all the NFL – then Arizona losing is not the constitutional crisis of the universe. The fact that Arizona hung with a great Rams team most of the game, but just got beat by the better team – it’s not a negative, it’s at least neutral, if not a slight positive.
Arizona wasn’t perfect but against a really good defense/team, they moved the ball/scored points…it was a struggle, but they achieved some offensive success against this D. This game was only 17-14 Rams at the end of three quarters, with Arizona having missed a FG before half or it could have been tied.
The Rams scored first in the 4th-quarter to go up 24-14, the Cardinals came right back to 24-21 with 13+ minutes to go. The Rams started muscling the Cardinals from there and Kyler trying to rush a comeback with 4+ minutes left down 10 points, threw into danger and got picked sixed and then the game was pretty much over at 38-21…but Arizona did fly right back down the field and get it to 38-28 with 2+ minutes left. They never quit.
The Rams were the better team, but no shame for the Cardinals – the Rams are better than the Cardinals right now. Most NFL teams are not as good as the Rams. But because the football media is pro-Seattle and anti-Rams, we don’t get any good vibes about the Rams. They’re still trying to figure out how the Giants wrecked their Seahawks…and trying to ignore that the Rams smacked Seattle too just a few weeks ago.
The Rams are now (8-4), and I think they’re the best team in the NFC…but not so great they couldn’t get beat by any team on any given Sunday. Goff is a top 12-15 NFL QB, the Rams defense is the best in the league…you can win a title with that combination. We project the Rams to (11-5) and a shot at the NFC West title…but Seattle still very much in it with an easier schedule.
Arizona is now (6-6)…a team with flaws, but still possible for the playoffs. They’ve lost four of 5, and everyone is hysterical – but they’ve lost to Seattle, Miami, New England, the Rams in that span…they aren’t losing to patsies and they are not getting totally outplayed. The Cardinals are just not a great team yet, cut them a break. Their last two wins were over very good teams Buffalo (lucky) and Seattle…the Cardinals are not terrible, but they are if you tried to elevate them to NFC West winners (as many did 5-6 weeks ago…because they beat ‘holy’ Seattle Week 7. Somehow beating Seattle is like the litmus test for the football media for temporary acceptance (See: Giants this week). It’s really bizarre. Except when the Rams do it.
We see Arizona finishing (8-8) and sneaking into the playoffs, maybe. (7-9) is not off the table still.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Kyler Murray (21-39 for 173 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) Report…
If this is the worst Kyler Murray plays in a season…it’s a pretty good season. 3 TD passes against the best defense in the NFL. Sure, limited passing yards and he’s stopped running for some reason…but he’s doing fine as a passer. He is literally the only thing keeping this horrid Air Raid scheme afloat. Kyler is making plays…that’s all you can ask, especially in a game where his team, his O-Line were overmatched.
Over the last 6 games, the Rams defense has humiliated Nick Foles (0 TD/2 INT), crushed Tua’s awful debut (1 TD/ 0 INT), squashed Russell Wilson (0 TD/2 INTs)…made Tom Brady (2 TD/2 INT) look stupid, and drop kicked Nick Mullens (0 TD/1 INT)…3 TD passes/7 INTs total allowed in the prior five Rams’ games to this one – so Kyler comes in and drops 3 TD passes with a late game, forced comeback pick and we’re supposed to get hysterical about it/the loss?
I think Kyler looks fine. Flashes of greatness at times…overcoming this dreadful Air Raid – he’s just not as good as Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. That’s not a crime. He might be as good as them, but he won’t be in this offense unless personnel changes are made and the O-Line is upgraded.
Kyler is fine. The Cardinals are ‘fine’ if you see them as a .500 team. The current FF issue is three not-great matchups ahead with NYG-PHI-SF. Limits the upside some, unless he starts running heavy again.
In context, Kyler is fine.
-- Jared Goff (37-47 for 351 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) has blown up Seattle (73%, 302 yards), Tampa (76%, 376 yards), and Arizona (79%, 351 yards) in the last 4 weeks…and still everyone is like “How Sean McVay gets Goff to ever complete a pass is a miracle!”
I agree, Sean McVay is good…better for Goff than a Jeff Fisher type. No denying it, but it’s not like Goff is incompetent, as he is portrayed. The guy is a former #1 pick (and the football media would like you to forget that it was SO obvious to them that Carson Wentz should have been #1…where did those arguments disappear to, I wonder?) – Goff is talented. If he gets the Rams to the Super Bowl this season…it will be two SB trips in three seasons. That ain’t bad.
I know this …he’ll never get credit for it (if he does win a title), ever. The media has marked him, and he’ll never escape it.
Recall the note above about him blowing up SEA-TB-ARI the last 4 weeks? The one game I didn’t mention in that span…Week 12 vs. the 49ers – a defense that made him look stupid. That’s why I am pro-49ers-DST for the ROS…Sherman-Verrett back and they look really good. Getting beat by the Bills is not a crime, just like the Cards losing to the Rams here isn’t horrible.
-- Cam Akers (21-71-1, 1-22-0/1) got 21 carries and it seems Sean McVay has gone in on what he’s always wanted to – a Cam-led backfield.
Maybe.
We all thought that about Darrell Henderson (3-49-1, 2-25-0/3) several weeks ago too.
Akers had a few nice runs, but mostly a lot of 0-2 yard garbage happened…again. I think McVay wants Akers ‘to happen’, but he will switch horses mid-race if the situation warrants.
In his last five games, Akers had that wide open 61-yard run vs. the 49ers…and 53 carries for 183 yards otherwise…a sad 3.45 yards per carry. I hope McVay loses games if he tries to force this Akers thing, as it seems he’s trying…but McVay is fairly smart – he’ll switch in-game if Akers is failing.
I’d be very wary of thrusting Akers into your FF starting lineups based off this one outlier game…it might be the start of a trend, but it might just be an outlier.
-- The argument for McVay sticking with Akers, despite ‘results’ is Kliff Kingsbury is doing by continuing to force Kenyan Drake (10-49-1, 2-9-0/3) into the action despite a lack of results/juice. Drake puts the offense to sleep every time he gets a lot of carries on a drive – and then Chase Edmonds (6-28-0, 2-15-0/6) and always looks faster/provides a spark, but then disappears from the field.
There’s no end in sight of heavy Drake and limited Edmonds…so, maybe it will be heavy Akers and limited Henderson for the Rams ahead too? Whether it makes sense or not…head coaches tend to latch onto one RB, and they won’t quit ‘em no matter what.
-- All the Cardinals WRs were held in check, again…the Rams pass defense is awesome. Some receiver notes for ARI:
Dan Arnold (2-61-2/3) got a long TD early in this game, and then wasn’t a part of the offense most of the rest of the game…which is his norm. The 2 TDs were just randomly lucky, not a move towards ‘something’.
DeAndre Hopkins (8-52-1/13) got held in check by Jalen Ramsey. Hopkins has been under 55 yards in a game in four of his last 5 games…mostly playing top cover corners/good-to-great pass defenses.
Christian Kirk (1-2-0/3) is so irrelevant in this offense. The TD flurry from a few weeks ago…his prior hot streak is like the Dan Arnold game here. Just a blip.
KeeSean Johnson (4-27-0/4) is the one receiver showing a fresh spark. A season high 4 catches while playing 70% of the snaps. He’s about to become the #4 WR and Andy Isabella (2-7-0/5) is about done in Arizona. Bill Belichick should be drooling to make him his new Julian Edelman.
-- Gerald Everett (6-44-0/7) is playing more and more snaps, getting more and more purposeful touches. Since Week 7, Everett is averaging 3.8 rec. (5.2 targets), 29.0 yards, 0.17 TDs per game.
A lot of designed bubble/tunnel screens for him in this game. Last year, Tyler Higbee (4-24-1/6) blew up with more work at the end of the season. Everett is muddling along with more work of late…so, it only makes sense that there will be more Everett and less Higbee.
Maybe Sean McVay is worse at personnel than I thought…and I’ve been souring on the boy genius for two years now.
-- Troy Reeder (10 tackles, 1 PD) has started three games for the injured Micah Kizer this season. He’s averaged 12.0 total tackles and 1.0 TFLs per game in those starts. One more start Week 14 before Kizer returns…against run-heavy New England…here comes 10+ more tackles!
-- The Rams have the best defense in the NFL, so says me. Facing NE and NYJ the next two weeks is not going to hurt my argument.
-- A look at the Cardinals-DST when NOT facing a top QB (like Russ, Allen, Goff) this season…
Week 12 vs. NE = held the Pats to 20 points and 179 total yards
Week 9 vs. MIA = Gave up 31 points but 7 were defensive, another 7 set up by a turnover in the deep red zone. It was a game of errors setting up Miami, but normal circumstances the Dolphins had a hard time moving the ball.
Week 6 = Held Dallas to 10 points
Week 5 = held the Jets to 10 points
Week 2 = Held Washington to 15 points.
They have given up ‘stuff’ to good teams/QBs and squashed weaker offenses almost all season. They face Colt McCoy Week 14. You decide what category that matchup falls in…
Snap counts of Interest:
64 = Hopkins
60 = Kirk
54 = Isabella
45 = KeeSean
37 = Edmonds
29 = Drake
70 = Higbee
60 = Everett
52 = Akers
18 = DHendo
13 = M Brown
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College Football Metrics (CFM) 2021 subscriptions will be available for early sign up late December 2020/early January 2021.
It’s going to be a scouting NFL Draft season like no other – some top prospects opting out of their final college season, a unique schedule for CFB teams to have played, a different type of bowl season…a whole new backdrop to scout against. An experienced, talented scouting eye is going to rule. I have 10+ years of successful CFM scouting and analytics to lean on – I’m ready for the challenge.
I know the mainstream football analysis is going to butcher this year’s class even worse than normal – because they are going to blindly favor big school prospects more than ever, because those schools will have the only names they are truly familiar with, and it’s just the ‘name’ they are familiar with not their ‘game’. They’ll hive mind run with whatever names the collective seems to be buzzing about – because they don’t put in the work, they just echo things they’ve heard. I’m not saying that to be a jerk – it’s the open window of opportunity (their failure) that I was able to build my career/business upon.
I spend many hours each offseason day/week/month researching the current class of top 100+ prospects individually as well as all the smaller school and ‘lesser named’ prospects our computer models start to identify. I study and compare prospect’s tape, and I input the performance data (weighted with our secret, proprietary scouting formulas) to get a firsthand feel for it so I can analyze and test/challenge all our analytics. I get to know these prospects on the field, statistically, and do character background research as well -- so I can boil it down to reports so my private clients and subscribers (from serious fantasy players, to professional handicappers, to agents, to NFL war room personnel) can know these prospects by description and statistically – for NFL purposes, for Dynasty Rookie Draft purposes, for Fantasy Best Ball/Redraft purposes in the preseason, and for handicapping and prop betting purposes.
If you love Fantasy Football, if you love the NFL Draft process – I guarantee you’ll never look at the process the same way again with a CFM subscription.
As the regular season football ends, a whole new season of football discovery begins with our ‘CFM’ subscription and study or current and past rookies (offense and defense) – and material flows daily all offseason January to September (NFL season start), leading us to using the material to our advantage for the NFL regular season.
Go to our College Football Metrics or Fantasy Football Metrics subscription pages for more information. The new season sign up information will begin posting in the second half of December 2020.
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- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Ravens 34, Cowboys 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Another week in a row where my football week ends with the Ravens involved in putting me to sleep. Can there not be another week ending Ravens game the rest of 2020, please? Surely, there can’t be any more Baltimore involved in the final game of the NFL week events for the rest of the season…I mean there’s just 4 weeks left?
…wait, what? The Ravens face the Browns on Monday Night Football next week. What the? Son of a…
Come on COVID, we need to shift something to next Tuesday! I can’t take more Ravens games on national TV!
Even Dez Bryant doesn’t want to play for the Ravens anymore.
Seriously, this was a bad football game. The Dallas Cowboys should quit the rest of the season along with Dez. They are a joke.
I’m being salty about things because my take on this game was – the Cowboys are terrible, and the Ravens didn’t destroy them. Not really. It was a bit of a grind for the Ravens. The Ravens had to convert 3rd-downs and 4th-downs and get turnovers to pull away. The 2019 Ravens would have won this game by 30+. The 2020 Ravens were losing to Dallas halfway into the 2nd-quarter and struggled moving the ball too many times. Dallas is a pushover and Baltimore didn’t really push them over with impunity…just a light nudge and then Dallas tripped over their own feet.
I don’t know what happened to the 2019 version of the Ravens, but they are nowhere to be found in 2020 since about Week 3 of this season. I don’t think they exist anymore.
Baltimore rises to (7-5) and needs to win three of their final 4 games to have a shot at a wild card. If they beat Cleveland next week…the Ravens are getting in. I don’t know that they can beat the Browns at Cleveland right now.
Dallas (3-9) is now done for the season. I mean they were pretty well done prior to this game, but with NYG and Washington getting to 5 wins with upset wins Week 13…Dallas would have to run the table to have a shot at the NFC East title, and even then they may fall short. Dallas has a pulse for the NFC East title but it’s very faint. They aren't winning 4 in-a-row. They may not win another game the rest of the year.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Lamar Jackson (12-17 for 107 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 13-94-1) is not getting any better as the season goes along…he’s getting worse. Fortunately, for him…Dallas is so bad he was able to make a few plays, especially running early when the Dallas linebackers chased fakes and didn’t realize Lamar Jackson would keep the ball himself. What do defensive players do when watching film during the week? Who doesn’t know Lamar is likely keeping it on every run play he can?
Lamar still runs it fine, just not as well as he did last season, but his passing is atrocious. Again, he’s lucky he drew Dallas with most of their secondary out of action.
If you make Lamar work as a pocket passer…you’re going to win the game over the Ravens.
Lamar is Lamar…so he keeps a lot of running plays for himself, never throws to the RBs, and can barely complete passes to receivers – all the supporting cast is dead for fantasy as long as Lamar is at QB, and he will be for a long time.
-- J.K. Dobbins (11-71-1) did not get the follow up ‘push’ as ‘the guy’ to lead the Ravens backfield. Mark Ingram (6-28-0, 1-1-0/1) started! Dobbins sprinkled in with dominant runs but was out more than he was in…and he got a late garbage TD to save his FF-day.
Dobbins is in a timeshare/RBBC…and Lamar is the one taking all the FF-gold as a runner. Fortunately, Dallas is so bad there were numbers to be had for Dobbins-Edwards late, but you can’t FF-survive on 8-11 carries and targets each week.
I love Dobbins, but you gotta trade him in PPR Dynasty this offseason if there is a big believer who wants to acquire him.
-- I was expecting a shutdown performance from the Ravens secondary, but with Jimmy Smith out…Andy Dalton (31-48 for 285 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) was fairly comfortable all game.
Jimmy Smith back next week is trouble for the Browns…and I think he’ll go after Jarvis Landry.
Dalton faces his ‘revenge’ game against the Bengals Week 14. I’m not sure what a win by a bad Dallas team over a bad Bengals team will prove, but it’s a thing…as it usually is. Run with the revenge factor if you wish. Dalton looks totally fine/capable every week, to me. Just depends upon the opponent and game flow.
-- Before looking at the box score, I would have guessed it was a 60/40 split of touches between Ezekiel Elliott (18-77-0, 4-18-0/6) and Tony Pollard (8-22-0, 1-6-0/1)…but that’s not what happened. It sure seems like Pollard was in a lot more and in key spots early.
Pollard, a receiving star in college…gets one target in a game, per usual. Nice job, Kellen Moore. Great use of personnel. Keep throwing heavy to Amari…they’ll never figure that to happen.
-- Dez Bryant (DNP) got notified he had tested positive for COVID about 30 minutes before the game…then tweeted in-game that he was quitting football because of it.
So many thoughts…
1) How is it player test results just got in minutes before the game?
2) How many people do you think Dez was around the two hours pregame – between his own team and going over to see his old team? Dez is a superspreader event, potentially.
3) Dez’s childish reaction is as you would expect. If the Ravens don’t cut him, then I lose a ton of respect for John Harbaugh. Everyone has worried for years that Dez is an immature, locker room cancer. The Ravens should be making the playoffs, so Dez could matter in a few weeks for the playoff run. Nope. He’s ‘quitting’. Totally in his character…it’s all about Dez and what toys Dez wants to play with.
-- Finally, how bad has Greg ‘the Leg’ fallen? 1-of-4 on field goal attempts in this game.
They probably just stick with him the rest of the season, but they should try young kickers out the next few weeks in prep to hope to find one for 2021…because Zuerlein is definitely getting cut because Dallas will save $2.2M in CAP space when they do.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = Boykin
45 = Mq Brown
44 = Duvernay
21 = Dobbins
18 = Edwards
11 = Ingram
50 = Elliott
31 = Pollard
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Chiefs 33, Dolphins 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Stupid, sloppy Kansas City.
Why am I denigrating them? I bet them -7.0 heavy, and they had a 20-point lead in the 4th-quarter and I started counting my money – and then they allowed weak-ass armed Tua to flutter balloons to receivers, while the Chiefs DBs kept dropping pick opportunities. It’s like Tua has a divine intervention on his passes.
I’m mad at Kansas City, for selfish reasons, but I do think they are incredibly sloppy. More on that in a moment.
Let recap this game three steps, just in case you didn’t see it -- but saw the score was close and Patrick Mahomes had a bunch of turnovers.
1) Mahomes was moving the ball normally, early…but had a tipped pass turned INT and a gamble throw gone wrong for another -- and that allowed Miami to get a 10-0 lead into the 2nd-quarter.
2) Kansas City then hit the accelerator and scored the next 30 points…picking apart the great Miami pass defense and making Tua look foolish with their own defense.
3) Then it was all smiles and laughing on the sidelines for KC, as they let Tua float balloons and score two TDs to cut the 20-point lead to 6 points with 4+ minutes left. KC had to sweat a tiny bit but held on to win 33-27. A game they should’ve won by 50+…and they’re lucky they didn’t lose.
Kansas City is not playing the best football in the NFL right now but do have the best record at (12-1). An 8-game win streak is nice, but it has mostly come against weak teams and/or seemed-to-be losses they pulled out in the end. If you added +7 to every opponent’s score against them…they would have lost their last 4 games in a row. They are routinely in one-score games holding on for dear life or coming back late to win lately.
I don’t believe the Chiefs are the best team in football right now. They are on cruise control against bad teams and fringe wild card teams while the Bills and Rams are peaking…getting stronger and battle-tested against better competition every week. I bet the Bills would knock off the Chiefs if they played a playoff game this week. Regardless, KC is going to finish with 14-15 wins, get a #1 seed, but I think they’ll get-got before they reach the Super Bowl…but they should be the Super Bowl favorites because Mahomes can do anything.
Keep in mind…we used to think ‘Aaron Rodgers could do anything’ and he won a Super Bowl and then never again…not even gotten back to it again since he won one 10+ years ago. Hoping the QB makes up for all your general sloppiness is not guaranteed money in the NFL playoffs.
The Dolphins fall to (8-5) and are really a .500 team (with Tua) masquerading as a ‘good’ team. I’m going to recover my stolen money from this game and take NE +2.5 at Miami this week. If Miami loses Week 15, then their season/playoffs are on the line Week 16 at Las Vegas. We still project Miami to wind up (9-7) and just missing the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Maybe it’s me, but every time I watch Tua I cannot believe he’s completing passes…and postgame, looking at the box score, I cannot believe he’s got over 200+ yards passing in any game. He had 316 yards passing in this game…and I don’t know where they came from. Every week, it’s the same dink and dunk offense with some blind floaters into coverage…that DBs never catch, but sometimes the Dolphin’s receivers do.
Perhaps, I’m the issue…that I can’t see it right. Or that I’m too jaded on Tua.
It’s not that.
When Tua really had to pass in this game, when they got down in the middle section of the game and were trying to throw back into it…Tua freezes like a deer in the headlights and starts taking on hits/sacks and throwing errant passes. Some of his throws were inexplicable for the quarterback he’s supposed to be. As the prevent defense appeared and the KC players were laughing it up on the sidelines with a 20-point cushion…Tua snuck them back in. ‘Snuck’ being the word. It didn’t look good.
I will be proven right here…there’s something really wrong/off with Tua. The general consensus scouting is way off.
Could Tua improve with time? Sure. But I don’t see it. Not the way he’s playing. The lack of arm strength at all is scary. His blind throws into coverage -- it looks like every bust I’ve ever seen hit the NFL. He simply doesn’t have the tools to be an NFL star QB. He can dink and dunk. He can float balloons. Sam Darnold continues to exist in the NFL…with ‘backers’ still. Like Darnold, Tua can throw a football in a general direction and have things go his way. He has decent vision when he has time…but he’s so frantic-looking much of the time.
All that to say…I wouldn’t want anything tied to Tua now or for the future. The WRs are going to suffer with his inability to throw downfield…and teams will realize he’s lofting passes to the tall TEs and hoping they highpoint it for him, and then the TEs will be random events. Even the RBs are in trouble because this will be a very limited offense overall. Even IF Tua gets more comfortable…he’s a very limited, Sam Darnold-esque QB.
If you play him or anything related against the Pats-D/Belichick Week 15…you’re crazy. But, Tua has been throwing four-leaf clover passes for weeks and it's paying off some…so, maybe you’ll get lucky this week again.
I wouldn’t bet on it.
-- The Tua problem bleeds into the WRs…the third string ones who will start against Stephon Gillmore and JC Jackson Week 15.
We could see a WR trio of the following guys trying to take on the Pats secondary…
#1 WR (Wk15) Lynn Bowden (7-82-0/9)…a WR turned QB who is really an RB now playing WR. He will be Tua’s top look…but will have a talented Jonathan Jones covering him in the slot.
#2 WR (Wk15) Mack Hollins (5-66-0/9), a solid, experienced outside WR…better known for his special team’s ability. He will definitely draw one of Gillmore/Jackson.
#3 WR (Wk15) Antonio Callaway (0-0-0/2), who was out of the league with ‘issues’ last year…playing XFL ball…he’ll have one of Gillmore/Jackson, the one not on Hollins
Good luck against the Patriots secondary, gentlemen.
-- Tua’s #1 look is Mike Gesicki (5-65-2/6). Why? Because Tua likes/can see the tall receiver and can throw a balloon ball up to him and hope he high points it (of which he’s good at) and it’s been working lately. That’s good news.
The bad news is that Gesicki hurt his arm and is likely out Week 15 (and maybe more).
I think Adam Shaheen (2-26-0/3) will take on that role of Gesicki...and Tua will throw to him a bunch out of necessity. Shaheen could get 7-10 targets against NE…and he might land 3-4-5 of them.
Durham Smythe (2-19-0/3) is ‘the starter’ but is more blocker than receiver option like the tall Gesicki, or taller Shaheen.
-- Rounding out the Miami woes… All their RBs stink and are hurt.
DeAndre Washington (13-35-0, 2-17-0/5) did little in this game because defenses aren’t afraid of Tua throwing deep, so the defenses are crept up for the short passing game and stopping the run-desired Miami offense.
Myles Gaskin might miss Week 15 with COVID, we’ll see. Salvon Ahmed is probably too hurt to go Week 15. It could fall on Washington again, but expect similar results as this game.
Keep in mind on all this Miami stuff Week 15 v. NE…if the Patriots beat Miami, then New England will be (7-7)…and will have just dropped Miami to (8-6). If NE wins, the three main teams the Pats will be battling for that last wild card spot will be…Miami (they will have beaten 2x this season), Baltimore (beat them in the rain), and Las Vegas (thumped LV earlier this year).
A (9-7) Patriots team…is a wild card team.
Week 15 means a lot to the Patriots…as they take on a wounded, Tua-led Dolphins team. The Pats-D will be motivated for this one for sure.
-- On the other side of the field in this game, Patrick Mahomes (24-34 for 393 yards, 2 TDs/3 INTs) had some sloppy throws, mostly tipped passes that turned into fortuitous picks that kept Miami in the game early and helped them late. Aside from that, Mahomes was carving up this very stout Miami pass defense.
No worries about Mahomes.
-- Do worry about Clyde Edwards-Helaire (16-32-0, 5-59-0/6)…it was another garbage game from him.
Consider, Miami enters this game having to worry about the KC passing game (as everyone does). They also had their starting ILB (Roberts) out and then top LB Kyle Van Noy was a late scratch. Very fertile ground for CEH to take advantage of…and he responds with 2.0 yards per carry.
My patience/enthusiasm with CEH is running thin…for the future. I thought he was a ‘B’ RB talent going into an ‘A+” situation, but maybe he is a ‘B-C’ grade RB in a ‘B-C’ fantasy situation…that’s not good.
-- Travis Kelce (8-136-1/10) had another great game. Two notes…
1) Someone in NFLdom floated the idea of Kelce for Offensive Player of the Year.
Really?
Seriously?
Oh, what would Mahomes ever do without Kelce!!! Deon Yelder would probably be the leading TE in fantasy with Kelce out…or whomever KC rolled out there.
Guess what would happen to Kelce’s numbers if Mahomes wasn’t there?
2) I will not hear any backtalk on my computer models projecting Travis Kelce as a top 12 fantasy asset…a 1st-round worthy option in PPR for 2021.
3) Bonus note…please don’t ask me about selling Kelce on his age for Dynasty this offseason. Why try and time this market? Just enjoy the ride. Stop making your #1 priority in fantasy timing the very peak of every market.
-- After a week off, you can go back to using the Miami-DST for Week 15…vs. Cam. It’s all good.
Week 16 at Las Vegas, probably OK…not awesome.
-- The KC-Miami DST pairing helped get a lot of people to the playoffs and past the 1st-round. The proper finish is probably to use Miami Week 15 v. NE, and then use KC v. ATL Week 16.
The Week 16 game is at home/in the cold for Matt Ryan…and in case you hadn’t noticed – Matt Ryan has gotten about as bad as Carson Wentz.
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Did you know if you click through the Amazon link from the FFM homepage (our partners/shop with us area) it doesn’t change your online shopping experience or cost you any money but somehow the big brother technology credits FFM with helping with the sale and we gets some of Jeff Bezos’s scraps from his solid gold dinner table to help support the FFM efforts and fund our own future technology improvements? It’s one click away, nothing else needed or to register. Thank you for your consideration!
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Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Bowden
40 = Hollins
31 = Grant
27 = Parker
22 = Callaway
43 = Gesicki
37 = Shaheen
36 = Smythe
42 = Laird
39 = DWash
46 = CEH
11 = L Bell
05 = Darr Williams
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Colts 26, Texans 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
It felt like the Colts were the better team here and they led the game for 50+ minutes of game play. Yet, the Texans just hung around down by a score all 2nd-half (with neither team scoring a TD or FG all 2nd-half of the game)…and on a final drive of the game, Houston got down to the 2-yard line – and on 2nd & 2 with 1:28 remaining…a bad shotgun snap resulting in a lost fumble and…ball game. The Texans find a new way to lose.
The stats in the game were pretty even. The game play leaned Indy (to my eye), but the Colts only scored 5 points the final 39 minutes of the game. Houston played well enough to win, they just blew it in the end on a fluke bad snap at the wrong time.
Houston losing is no big deal, their season was already over. But Indy would have been in big trouble for the playoffs and AFC South title with a bad division loss here. With the win, the Colts jump up to (8-4) and stay steady for the playoffs. Indy leans more towards 10 wins than 9 wins now, but it’s one of those two likely end results. Week 14 Indy at LV is huge for the winner of that game for the playoffs.
Houston is (4-8) and going nowhere fast. They could end up with 6 wins in the end.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Houston WR report…
Brandin Cooks (5-65-0/8) left the game with concussion concerns, but I did not realize until the re-watch that he re-entered the game very late. He must have gotten cleared, obviously. I thought the concussion would be an issue into Week 14…because he has a bad history with them. Looks like not as big an issue as I thought. We’ll see.
Whether Cooks was in or out, Keke Coutee (8-141-0/9) put on a show. Every catch he made was better than the next. He looked like CLEARLY the best WR on the Texans roster…whether Fuller or Stills or Cooks or Andre Johnson was there. Quite a performance by Coutee, who has flashed at times before but could never stay healthy/on the field to follow through on it.
I like Coutee ahead for FF, from what I saw here and knowing he had some big PPR weeks in the past with Watson. Cold weather game at CHI this week is a so-so situation but then two dome games Weeks 16-17 (IND-CIN) could be really nice.
Chad Hansen (5-101-0/7) came up off the practice squad and looked like he belongs in the NFL with a very solid performance – he looked like he’d been starting for Houston for years; didn’t miss a beat. Hansen is a solid Chris Hogan-type WR but will be lower targeted with Cooks-Coutee playing. I wouldn’t get too excited here unless Cooks is out, and then no hope when Cobb returns.
Randall Cobb is set to return from IR Week 15…we’ll see if that’s the case. If he gets back, it puts a mild damper on Coutee’s upside and throws Hansen out of the starting lineup. I liked Cobb as a waiver wire sleeper grab for Week 16 v. CIN if Cooks might be out for a few weeks…but that’s not looking like the case, so my Cobb thoughts are tempered a bit (if Cooks is fine).
-- In a time of great need for receivers, the Texans were rumored to be looking for Jordan Akins (2-10-0/3) to help fill in. He did play a good amount of the snaps (70%), but…
Three whole targets. Wow! How great.
Akins will have a decent FF-week this season, gets me sucked in and then disappears for 2-3-4 games. I’m pretty much out on this now. Sick of the empty roller coaster ride.
Kahale Warring (0-0-0/1) saw all of 6 snaps but did get in for an end zone shot from about 10 yards out, but Watson threw a bit high and the DB knocked it down thwarting a Warring TD. No real effort to see more of Warring otherwise by Romeo Crennel…shocker.
-- David Johnson (10-44-1, 0-0-0/2) looked fine in his return off IR. Just lower touches and no real targets again. I can’t write anymore about how dumb him not being a part of the passing game is. I just know that it’s never going to change on purpose.
-- Jonathan Taylor (13-91-0, 3-44-1/3) had a really good game here, but just know…it was not intentional. There was absolutely no sign of Frank Reich looking to lean on Taylor the 1st-half of this game. In the 2nd-half, Taylor got going and he looked nice for a 2nd game in a row…but just know the Colts are not committed to him. He’s just part of the trio and it could be a big touch or little touch week in the snap of a finger.
-- So, NOW…T.Y. Hilton (8-110-1/11) finally starts to play good fantasy football? I had a ton of TYH and/or Marvin Jones to start the FF season and they both stunk so bad I had to cut them everywhere a few weeks in…and then they start becoming stars every week the past few weeks…once not on my teams.
Thanks for nothing…literally.
TYH is looking like ‘the man’, but keep in mind – he had his first real monster game against the worst CB in the history of football, Vernon Hargreaves. Everyone is a star vs. Hargreaves. Only the Texans are stupid enough to keep trotting him out there. With Bradley Roby gone, Hargreaves is seen as their top corner…and, well, even T.Y. Hilton-2020 can take advantage of that.
LV-HOU the next two weeks…TYH might be a late season starter/producer.
-- I have been against Trey Burton (1-11-0/3) all season, but thought I saw some hope as a low level TE1 this past week…and he responded with a 1 catch game for 11 yards. Man, I hate all the Indy TEs…the situation they are in. You can’t FF-trust any of them in a given week.
-- Had Deshaun Watson not fumbled near the goal line at the end of the game, it would’ve been another game where the Colts give up 27 or more points to the opponent. They gave up 45 last week to TEN. 31 to GB the week before. When they play good offenses, offense happens. LV-HOU-PIT are all good offenses to face the next 3 weeks.
Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Hansen
53 = Cooks
48 = Coutee
45 = Akins
27 = Fells
06 = Warring
33 = J Taylor
23 = Hines
13 = Wilkins
44 = Alie-Cox
38 = Doyle
25 = Burton
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: 49ers 34, Bills 24
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The 49ers got out to a quick 7-0 lead (off a Bills fumble to set up the 49ers with a nice 1st & goal), and then MY Buffalo Bills took over from there – 17-7 Bills at the half, 27-10 Bills late 3rd-quarter. 34-17 until a Nick Mullens garbage time TD with 0:43 left. Easy, efficient, dare I say dominant win by the Bills on national TV over a quality opponent playing for their playoff lives.
You watched two games Monday Night…you can’t tell me the Bills aren’t the better team than the Pittsburgh Steelers are. You’re about to find out this Sunday Night as the Steelers go to Buffalo (to get their heads handed to them).
The Chiefs are the best team in football. I’d argue the Buffalo Bills are now #2 and are the only team who could really stand up and punch the Chiefs in the mouth (them and the Raiders). The Bills are now (9-3)…they should be (10-2), if not for the ‘Hail Murray’ event a few weeks ago. The Bills two ‘real’ losses were to TEN and KC Weeks 6-7, when Buffalo was dealing with multiple, key defensive injuries. The Bills are now at as full strength as they’ve been all year and are starting to roll. Buffalo should finish with 12-13 wins and be the #2-3 seed…and they are the biggest threat to KC. They must beat the Steelers Week 14 first.
All this Bills love, let’s not forget about their opponent here…
The best team in the NFC is probably a fully healthy 49ers team – but they are nowhere near healthy. They are the team most ravaged with injury in the NFL in 2020. The best team in the NFC claim (at full health) and they might not even make the playoffs. The 49ers are (5-7), and still in it for the wild card…but with work to do. If they can beat WSH and DAL the next two weeks, then Week 16 at ARI (or a SF home game :) is probably the game to determine which of those two teams are in – it also may be a game Jimmy G. and George Kittle return by. We see the 49ers going (8-8) and finding a way into the wild card…where they might run the table and get back to the Super Bowl, oddly enough.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First off, I mean…Josh Allen (32-40 for 375 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT, 6-11-0)…come on! NOW do you believe me?
Here’s a great lesson of Fantasy Football, football scouting (and life):
I hated (as a prospect) and mocked Josh Allen coming into the NFL. I celebrated as he sucked in 2018. I excused away his improvements in 2019. I went after Devin Singletary for fantasy 2019 and 2020, because I thought the Bills would have to be a run game oriented/ball control and strong defense team to minimize Josh Allen’s issues.
So, to start 2020…I ‘bet’/was positive on Singletary, the Bills-DST, and that Stefon Diggs (or Brown or Beasley) wouldn’t matter because Josh Allen would hurt them all.
Every single thing that I bet on here was wrong early in the 2020 season. I wasted assets to acquire Singletary in Dynasty. I started the season with the Bills-DST in some places. I owned no Diggs-Brown-Beasley or Allen. I had the Bills offense as a favorable target for opposing DSTs to go after Allen’s turnovers.
All of it wrong.
Sorry, no refunds on CFM or FFM :)
But here’s the thing – it’s great to be ‘right’ early, to get in on the ground floor…to celebrate your visionary genius. We’ve all had plenty of that…it’s a great feeling/moment. We crave to be the first one to plant our flag on the moon on prospects…which is why all of FF-society worships and lusts after Dynasty Rookie Draft picks or rookies in redraft. We want the virginal ownership of these players and then ‘make them’ our own.
It’s great to be ‘right’ before anyone else. Not far behind that reality is ‘just being right’, eventually – and then acting upon it. That’s where my service comes in, my expertise. You want me watching all these games, live and then afterwards all week on tape. I see things you might not or confirm things you do see. I put in the work, so you can evaluate it and choose whether to act upon it or not. I’m a professional. It’s what I do for a living. I take my job VERY seriously.
By the end of Week 1 and for sure by the end of Week 2 this season, what happened to my (terrible) way-to-play-for-fantasy the Bills preseason plan? I realized something had radically changed with Josh Allen. I wasn’t the only one, but while others patted it in the head -- I blew up all my prior notions and went hard after the new realities – all while most people were still suspect of the Bills situation. I was buying Josh Allen from weak handed/non-believer owners everywhere I could (and still am). I bought positions in Stefon Diggs. I chased John Brown. I added Cole Beasley for free if it came my way. I ditched the Bills-DST. A few weeks in I ditched out on Singletary…I took an accounting write-down hard there. It happens.
The losses from the bad call on Singletary were made up by the bargain prices I was acquiring Allen and Diggs at. Not that Allen and Diggs were cheap, but I bought them reasonably for what returns I expected to get…and have been getting.
I can be remembered (by others, or by my own self) as the guy who was wrong on Josh Allen’s scouting initially, and will get beat up/dismissed with social media quips about it, and they would be deserved/actual (and because that’s what social media is for…destroying strangers for their perceived shortcomings with biting one liners)…
…or I can be remembered as the guy who saw the error/change of reality fast enough and reacted – and is the guy who now owns Josh Allen and paid a bargain price to do it in hindsight.
It’s easier to remember the negative, so that’s what will be the legacy…but it shouldn’t be…not fully.
I was wrong about Josh Allen from 2018 to about Sept 15-20th, 2020.
And I might have just beat your FF-ass with MY Josh Allen with this 375 yard/4 TD event this week.
So, am I an idiot…or a genius? Doesn’t matter…I own Josh Allen (in places) and (generic) you don’t.
Football analysis and scouting, it’s not easy. It’s time consuming, very much so. I wish I had 24 more hours in a day every day. I do the work THEY (the people paid highly to analyze football on TV/radio/in print) simply are inclined not to do because it’s not sexy holed up in an office for 10-12+ hours a day, watching tape, writing, inputting stats/data by hand and missing family events and parties and not going to the gym for a nice 2-hour workout and not being invited/able to go to an expensive restaurant with the tab charged to the network/the company. Being surrounded by empty McDonalds wrappers, empty Diet Dr. Pepper cans, seeing your family for a limited time Aug-Dec, getting less than 3,000 steps a day, gaining 10-15 pounds during the NFL season (to have to try and work it off all offseason…just to do it all again next season) – it’s not glamorous, it’s not easy. But that’s why I am great at what I do, and Michael Irvin and Steve Mariucci (among others) are not.
Your support of FFM and CFM…allows me to focus on football and find these things faster than THEY do. I cannot thank you enough, besides bringing you these FF gems as often as I can find them to earn my keep.
The best way to express all of this is: https://youtu.be/Bq0H1p2zejg
Oh, and…
Josh Allen should be top 3 for the MVP voting in the NFL…but he won’t be.
Only Patrick Mahomes is a better player in the NFL in 2020.
When I was saying to trade Kyler + ___ for Allen for weeks on end earlier in the season? I watch Kyler every week…I watch Josh every week. You know my history with Kyler (that one we were right on way ahead of the crowd). I am telling you, again, that Kyler isn’t in the same class as Josh as an NFL QB. Kyler is great, and sweet for FF…but Josh is the better football player.
-- Raheem Mostert (9-42-0, 1-1-0/1) hasn’t looked great since returning from injury, the past two weeks/games. I think he ‘looks’ fine/normal…but the FF-results kinda stink the last 2 weeks.
Playing the Rams then the Bills those two weeks back – that may have been more the problem. WSH-DAL-ARI the next three weeks offers more FF-hope. I’m disappointed but not dismayed with Mostert. I’m still believing.
Jeff Wilson (7-47-02-12-0/5) seems to be in a 50/50 split with Mostert…as the 49ers do. Kyle Shanahan would love to run the ball 40 times and get three RBs involved, but the teams they’ve faced/the game scripts hasn’t lent itself to that. The next three weeks they could.
Tevin Coleman (2 carries, -11 yards) is the one who looks ‘not ready’ returning from injury. He’s a weak Mostert handcuff hold right now. If Mostert went down, it would likely be a three-headed RBBC with the ghost of Jerick McKinnon (played 2 snaps).
-- Tugboat/Bennie Snell-alike Zack Moss (3-9-0, 1-5-0/1) tried to cost the Bills the game early, but he got benched after a fumble and that allowed Devin Singletary (18-61-0, 3-22-0/4) to get good touches and he played well, as always.
I wish this meant a shift to heavy Devin over Moss, but two things…
1) Sean McDermott will work to bring Moss back into the fold. McDermott is a good manager and isn’t going to doghouse a player eternally. Moss will be back to 50/50 share ASAP.
I love McDermott but Moss is his albatross RB like Conner/Snell for Tomlin and Akers for McVay.
2) Moss went right in near the goal line first drive…because McDermott likes/trusts him. Of course, Moss failed a la Snell/Snail on Monday night…but that’s besides the point. Point is…McDermott isn’t changing away from 50-50 RBBC unless a fumble/error forces him to…temporarily.
-- I love Kyle Shanahan but you can’t go an entire 1st-half with Deebo Samuel (6-73-0/9, 1-3-0) touching the ball once…on a handoff with no catches.
Did Shanahan not watch his own game from last week when Deebo single handedly carried the offense against the best defense in the NFL? I guess not. Hey, I’m not the one who got blown out by the Bills not getting Deebo the ball all the easy ways you have done…you did.
In 2021, whomever the QB is for the 49ers, and I don’t think it will be Jimmy G. (or Mullens) – working with Shanahan, Kittle, Deebo-Aiyuk-Hurd(?), behind a stellar O-Line – that QB is going to be sweet for FF 2021.
Shanahan wants Kirk Cousins so bad…but he is not going to get him. Not sure he really wants Matt Ryan either, but maybe. And ‘no’ to Carson Wentz or Sam Darnold.
-- Jordan Reed (3-32-1/4) looks so good, but Nick Mullens is so bad…it’s hard to get too excited for FF, but Reed is a current TE1 hopeful among all the riffraff TEs.
Not for long, perhaps.
George Kittle is already back working out. He could be back Week 15…and Jimmy G. with him. Kittle should be a for-sure Week 16 return candidate. Week 14 may not be totally out of the realm of possibility. But likely Week 15, or for the more important Week 16 v. ARI. And if SF loses Weeks 14 or 15…then Kittle might not return. No need to, if out of the playoffs.
-- ILB Matt Milano (2 tackles) is back for the Bills, and that’s a drag/IDP-killer for previously high-flying A.J. Klein (4 tackles, 1 PD). The split snaps here…69% Klein, 31% Milano. That will be flipped soon.
-- Getting beatdown by the Bills on national TV is perfect to keep the 49ers-DST off the radar/desired lists. No shame in getting beatdown by Josh Allen, it’s like getting beat by Mahomes – only the media/analysts and thus the fans don’t see it/feel it that way, so it’s painted as a 49ers letdown.
Facing Washington-Dallas the next two weeks, they will be a top 10 DST candidate and maybe Week 16 vs. dying4 Arizona will be fine/OK/plausible.
-- The other hidden defense from this game – the Bills-DST. I pray people drop them because they are facing the Steelers Week 14. I think you could use them against PIT if desperate, but I want them for Week 15 at DEN and Week 16 at NE.
The Bills are a top 5 NFL defense and gave up a garbage late TD here or they would have held the 49ers under 20 points.
The Bills defense is getting healthy and ‘shutdown-ish’…bad news for a Steelers WRs in Week 14.
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Link to Amazon main page: https://www.amazon.com/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=tfawesbite11-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=44051c116edf4a75e87f1aae12955357&camp=1789&creative=9325
Snap Counts of Interest:
28 = Wilson
27 = Mostert
04 = Coleman
02 = McKinnon
62 = Singletary
11 = Moss
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Football Team 23, Steelers 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Ding-dong, the undefeated witch is dead! Finally.
Finally, this fraud undefeated team goes down. The Steelers are very good, but they are not the best team in the league/best in the NFL historically. I don’t know that they’re a top 3 team in the NFL right now.
When the Steelers got up 14-0 a few minutes before the half, everything looked ‘at hand’…but the Steelers achilles heel rose up and bit them – they can’t run the ball (because all their RBs suck, except the one they use the least…Jaylen Samuels, and their most-targeted receivers can’t catch passes consistently). The Steelers can blame themselves for this loss…they built this offense that is going to be hard-pressed to win a playoff game.
Washington saw Pittsburgh was taking Terry McLaurin away and used their other weapons heavily, finally. Meanwhile, the Steelers kept trying to do the same thing over and over, and it finally ran out of steam – if you’re going to try and run behind Bennie Snell, and you see Diontae and Ebron dropping every other pass and still keep throwing it to them…don’t be surprised when you lose. The Steelers lost…deservedly so.
Pittsburgh just invited a lot of playoff position ‘trouble’ with this loss. They fall to (11-1), and when they lose at Buffalo next week two problems will arise, and this bad loss brought it on: (1) The Chiefs are going have the inside track at the #1 seed if PIT loses to BUF Week 14, because KC already beat BUF. (2) The Browns are lurking all of a sudden. I mean, there’s no way the Browns can close the gap for real…but they could be a step closer to making the AFC North title chase interesting if they keep winning and the Steelers fall to the Bills (and I think they will). If the Browns get close, and then Ben gets COVID…I’m just saying, this loss invited trouble a step close to the Steelers and all hell could break loose with a loss at Buffalo next week.
Washington pulls a stunner to get to (5-7)…getting back to a tie with the (5-7) Giants for the NFC East, both with not-easy schedules ahead – but both just beat top teams this week, so who knows?
This is REALLY bad news for the Eagles…you assumed Washington and NYG would lose Week 13 and thus the Eagles would really be in the NFC East race still, and maybe even a favorite given their schedule after Week 14 ends – but now there’s trouble for Philly to stay alive.
The Eagles need both Washington and New York to totally stumble down the stretch…a tall order to ask, but not incomprehensible. It’s even worse news for Dallas. A three-win Cowboys team could’ve had a lot to play for Tuesday night…getting to win #4 would’ve put them a game out of 1st-place, IF NYG and WSH had lost this week. Now, Dallas is 2 wins behind the leaders going into Tuesday Night Football…and will pretty much have their coffin nailed shut if they lose to as-desperate Ravens.
We see Washington finishing with 6 wins, and the Giants with 7 wins to take the division now…but it is a very fluid situation.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Since most reading this have one of the Steelers WRs (some both) starting every week, we begin, as always, with the Steelers WR report…
a) The Diontae Johnson (8-71-1/12) ‘drops’ problem is not getting better, it is getting worse. Two ugly displays the last two weeks.
Keep in mind, to take some solace:
1) Ben never stops going to Diontae…where many WRs get frozen out for this issue.
2) Tomlin never disciplines him…all the WRs rotate in and out except JuJu and Diontae, for the most part. So, Tomlin is not losing faith. Mike Zimmer would have put Diontae on the practice squad by now.
3) Ben is all about his short throws, so he has to work Diontae more than the others…because they run the most Diontae interior/short pass routes.
4) Eric Ebron (7-68-0/11) has become a thing because of Ben’s short throwing, and Ebron’s drops are worse…so it helps distract some from Diontae’s issues.
I don’t mean to joke about it, because it looks like a problem now. One week is not a trend, but this is now -- signs of it early this season and then a bad Week 12 followed by a more egregious Week 13. He’s moving himself into a position of getting disciplined/benched with more trouble Week 14…and we don’t need that for FF right now.
It’s a worry for you/me, but it doesn’t seem to worry Ben or Tomlin…so, we roll on.
Reminder…this hasn’t been an issue in the past, and Davante Adams had this problem his second season…and people wanted him cut. The next season, he became ‘Davante’. Diontae is Ben’s Davante, in the dink & dunk game Ben runs now.
b) Chase Claypool’s (2-38-0/4) lack of snaps is now concerning. He wasn’t around much the 2nd-half of last game, and that didn’t necessarily mean something was wrong – but he didn’t start this game and he wasn’t in 44% of the time, splitting with Washington/Ray-Ray. I don’t know why ‘leading the team in receiving for the season’ warrants less snaps as the other receivers drop every other pass…but, I didn’t just lose to Washington because of my player personnel ineptitude – Mike Tomlin did.
I think there’s some scuttlebutt of rookie WRs hitting ‘a wall’, and thus Chase being throttled back a touch…and he’s gotten banged up some but not out-of-the-game injuries -- but Justin Jefferson doesn’t seem to be hitting any ‘wall’. There used to be a ‘watch out for WRs in Year Three’ mindset too…now it’s down to Week Three of their rookie season. So, Claypool being throttled back doesn’t make sense to me…and he’s still working the punt coverage, so that shows you how much Mike Tomlin values him as his best WR…he doesn’t.
Honestly, I don’t know what’s going on except this is classic NFL – your best weapon, keep him on the sidelines. Your best runner of the ball near the goal line…don’t give it to him around there anymore because you worry the other team knows it’s coming so let Benny Snell not get in 3-4-5 times in a row instead to avoid the issue???.
We have to scale Claypool back to a WR2-3 projection at a bad time to do until we figure out what in the H is going on.
c) James Washington (2-80-1/4) is playing well, and that’s another reason CC is rotating out some, potentially…but, seriously, we can’t take rock hands Diontae out or dull production JuJu out instead? We take the best player you have on offense out to get JWash more work? OK, but don’t blame COVID rescheduling for your problems – I know the real reason why. Mike Tomlin is a bad manager of offensive personnel, but Big Ben makes him look smart (like McCarthy-Rodgers, Carroll-Wilson).
Final note on the Steelers’ WRs is sobering…they are facing what might be the best pass defense in the NFL right now with Buffalo, in the cold, Week 14. Not good at the wrong time.
-- You cannot be an NFL team in 2020 and run Bennie Snell (8-5-0) and Anthony McFarland (4-15-0) as your lead backs in an era of great RBs all over the place. James Conner (DNP) is a weak hand as well. Pittsburgh did this to themselves.
Jaylen Samuels (1-1-0, 3-11-0/4) is the best back they have and so, of course, they rarely use him. They started using him a bit more here, out of desperation…and he had one spark play. I wish they’d put him in a duo with Conner, but I know that will never happen…or Samuels wouldn’t have been put in the doghouse after he dared rush for 100+ yards in his first start, in a shock win over New England – we can’t have any of that kind of production…we need Bennie Snail going 8 carries for 5 yards against a middle tier run defense.
Bennie Snail…I think that works. I can’t be the first person to have thought of that. Actually, I think I thought of that before anyone else. I call ‘trademark’. Talk to my lawyers from here on in.
Mike Tomlin will try to make Snail his feature back to start next season, I can feel it.
If you ask a question on Video Q&A and you put ‘Snail’ as one of your options…I’ll know exactly who you mean.
-- We won’t know how bad Antonio Gibson’s (2-14-0) turf toe is for a few days but that’s usually a couple weeks or more issue…if rushed back, the RB is slowed by trying to run through it. He’s likely to at least miss a week (probably more).
Peyton Barber (14-23-1) will get touches, but he’s barely better than Bennie Snail and behind a worse O-Line.
You know where the money is going to be…J.D. McKissic (5-8-0, 10-70-0/10) in PPR. No Gibson…McKissic is back to an RB1 in PPR.
-- On my Monday ‘Three Things/Five Players’ report, I pointed out two guys from this game for waivers this week…hoping they’d lay low in this game.
They did the opposite.
McKissic put up PPR RB1 numbers and then Logan Thomas (9-98-1/9) had his full breakout party. I wish I got onto him earlier, I just didn’t want to believe in the Washington passing game outside of any players that didn’t start with ‘Mc’ in their last name.
Thomas would be my #1 waiver grab of the week, if I were doing the Monday report with this game in the books…Thomas and Keke Coutee are the top names this week. Thomas maybe the #1 because of the position he plays.
-- I was miffed and glad to see that you got to see the Cam Sims (5-92-0/9) I was howling about for a few weeks, 4-5 weeks ago (and then had to give up). If you saw the game, you had to be thinking what I was – why didn’t they get the ball to this guy more the past few weeks…or at all (he had a game with no targets in the past few weeks as a heavy snap playing starter)?
I’m glad for this event -- because…now, I don’t feel as crazy for trying to get everyone interested in this guy. You see what I was seeing ahead of the crowd.
Still, I’m not sure how we can FF-trust him next week…but I am drawn back into considering it depending upon my roster size.
-- Two Steelers IDP situations to point out…
1) ILB Robert Spillane got hurt and left the game, and their traded-for ILB Avery Williamson (9 tackles, 1 TFL) took over and put up numbers. Depending upon the Spillane injury, Williamson could matter for IDP possibly.
2) Rookie DE Alex Highsmith (5 tackles) got his first start with Bud Dupree now gone…and he was not bad. I’m a fan. I think he’s going to be a sneaky good/solid player for PIT with upside…not sure if now is his time to shine, but he’s got the opportunity to.
-- The Washington-DST made people believers again, but two problems ahead…
1) The schedule ahead isn’t easy…at SF, SEA the next two weeks.
2) Those teams won’t feature a weak ass run game and WRs dropping every other pass.
*Shopping Online with Amazon this Holiday Season? Who isn’t?
Did you know if you click through the Amazon link from the FFM homepage (our partners/shop with us area) it doesn’t change your online shopping experience or cost you any money but somehow the big brother technology credits FFM with helping with the sale and we gets some of Jeff Bezos’s scraps from his solid gold dinner table to help support the FFM efforts and fund our own future technology improvements? It’s one click away, nothing else needed or to register. Thank you for your consideration!
Link to Amazon main page: https://www.amazon.com/?&_encoding=UTF8&tag=tfawesbite11-20&linkCode=ur2&linkId=44051c116edf4a75e87f1aae12955357&camp=1789&creative=9325
Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = JuJu
57 = Diontae
38 = Washington
31 = Claypool
33 = Snail
27 = Samuels (this is encouraging)
11 = McFarland
68 = McLaurin
62 = Cam Sims
29 = I Wright
22 = Stv Sims
53 = McKissic
24 = Barber
04 = Gibson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Packers 30, Eagles 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
No one was surprised by the Packers winning here, but there was some surprise that Carson Wentz got benched and was (finally) replaced by Jalen Hurts. That move is all there is to talk about from this game – and whether there is an official change happening or not. We’ll get to that.
As far as the game goes, here is what happened…
Aaron Rodgers constantly threw to Davante Adams, and defenses are still surprised by that and cannot stop it…as Adams scored 2 more TDs in an easy Green Bay victory.
End of summary.
The Packers led 23-3 early 4th-quarter. Game going as expected/like these teams have shown in recent weeks…the Eagles defense put up some fight, but the offense could barely produce as Carson Wentz’s descent into a bad/bust quarterback continued with him afraid to throw the ball, missing reads, getting hit, throwing into danger and so on. So, Jalen Hurts finally came in for a spark…and instantly provided said spark. A TD pass on his first drive to cut it to 23-10 GB. Then a quick three and out by the Philly defense on the GB offense, followed by Jalen Reagor returning the ensuing punt for a TD and suddenly it was just 23-16 GB with 6:30 to go.
If you watched this game with the sound off and just watched the Eagles team the entire game…it was a depressing ‘march of the dead’ for three quarters of play. No life in any of the players. Playing with no hope or care. Instantly defeated…especially on offense. A lot of slow jogging off the field after failed drives, a stoic sideline, etc. BUT then Jalen Hurts brought some life to the team with his first TD. Then Jalen Reagor’s punt return had the Eagles looking like they had just won the Super Bowl.
How Doug Pederson turns away from that change in mood/team unity/hope as ‘the manager’ of this business…I have no idea? But he probably will. Again, we’ll discuss the QBs in a moment.
Green Bay got a somewhat lucky long TD run to put it away – the kind where the defense is desperately selling out to stop the opponent to try and get the ball back with time evaporating and they got caught and Aaron Jones stole back all the momentum, and the win…and blew the Eagles backdoor cover.
The Packers are now (9-3), chasing (10-2) New Orleans for the #1 seed. Green Bay has four winnable games ahead. They probably won’t win those 4 games. I’m not sure which one they’ll blow but note that had the Eagles somehow found a way to win this game in the end…the Packers would be (4-4) in their last 8 games…a lucky-to-win beat of Jacksonville away from being under .500 in that span. The Packers feel overrated to me again.
The Eagles are now (3-8-1) and suddenly 1.5 games out of first place in the NFC East with NYG’s big upset of Seattle this week and then Washington’s shock win to put them (5-7). If Philly can win three of their next 4 games, they got a shot at 6 wins (with their tie) being good enough to win the NFC East, but the Giants are holding all the cards in this race now. It’s highly unlikely the Eagles can win three of 4. We project them (4-11-1) in the end.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Will Doug Pederson change to Jalen Hurts (5-12 for 109 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 5-29-0)?
My logic says he will.
My NFL logic says he absolutely will not.
The logical case for a change is obvious – beyond everyone calling for it the media. Hurts brought a spark, but more importantly Hurts looked good. He didn’t look overwhelmed. His first long pass play completion to Jalen Reagor was a thing of beauty…lofted down the field in perfect stride, in a perfect spot. He capped that first drive with a 4th & 18 play, buying time, seeing something develop and throwing a perfect anticipatory 30+ yard pass to Greg Ward on the button for a TD.
One beautiful throw could be lucky…two of them on the same drive – get ready, because Hurts can throw the ball. He knows what he is doing. He didn’t throw for 32 TDs/8 INTs, 69.7% Comp. Pct., and 275.0 passing yards per game at Oklahoma in 2019 because he is ‘just a runner’.
FYI, he also ran for 1,298 yards and 20 TDs to go with all that last season in college.
Hurts is a rock-solid character, a leader, and he’s not the type to get overwhelmed by the moment. Oh, AND he’s better than Tua Tagovailoa (sorry, Nick Saban). Hurts is as ready, mentally (calm and cool and hits the ground running) as any of the high-end QB prospects/Justin Herbert-Joe Burrow types walking into the NFL.
Hurts is not as talented a thrower as Herbert-Burrow, no doubt. But Hurts bring an X-factor to the table that they don’t – Hurts is built like a 1st-round draft pick running back playing QB. He has 4.5+ speed but is all muscle, a notorious workout/body builder type – he runs the ball in a physical manner that would put some RBs to shame. When he gets loose from the pocket or runs on purpose – he will produce on the ground, and probably mow some defenders over with his physique.
Hurts is as ready as any rookie who was kept away from ‘the 1s’ all season could be – Justin Herbert didn’t miss a beat with that. Hurts certainly can’t be any worse than what Carson Wentz has been doing the past few weeks (dying in front of our eyes).
Hurts is the best QB to play if Doug Pederson wants to win. One-part, Hurts is ‘ready’. One part, Wentz is so awful they can’t go back there.
However, NFL Logic is different from our human logic.
You see, they (NFL head coaches) know football better than anyone on the planet (so they believe) and the fans are dumb and will not bully NFL head coaches, who are treated like football gods, into doing something they don’t want to do. And Doug Pederson does not want to make a change off his buddy Carson Wentz…for loyalty reasons, and perhaps because he never wanted Jalen Hurts. Benching Wentz for Hurts is probably an admission that Pederson was wrong, and the GM was right.
I think NFL head coaches would rather go (0-16) in a season than ever having to admit a GM knew more than they did about anything. Pederson can simply say, “the Saints are playing top defensive ball in the league right now, so I don’t want to throw a rookie into that” as an excuse to give Wentz one more opportunity.
It will say a lot about Doug Pederson when he makes his decision this week. Post-game, he said he was going to evaluate everything. We won’t know until Tuesday or Wednesday, perhaps. If he really cares about ‘team’, ‘family’, ‘winning’…and if he cares about Wentz as a human, he’ll go with Hurts for the betterment of the team and to save Wentz from himself. If he only cares about showing the GM, the city, the world who is in charge of things – he will try and get Wentz one more chance to prove ‘em all wrong.
If Pederson goes with Wentz, they better win out and win a Super Bowl…because Pederson is so fired if he does not make a change right now, and it results in more sadness/ugly losses.
…also, that may be what Pederson wants – to get fired, to get away from Philly because this team is set up for disaster in 2021 with their CAP situation and the weak players they have overall.
-- We know if Wentz returns Week 14, against the Saints…it will be a disaster for all involved. But what would a change to Hurts for now and forever do for the Eagles FF-related things? Let’s talk receivers first…
Answer: We don’t know.
None of us has seen Hurts working with the 1st-team offense under normal circumstances. He was thrown into this situation (a 20-point deficit) and was just looking for anything. He didn’t seem to be discriminating.
My best estimate would be a Lamar Jackson comparison…
Jalen Reagor (1-34-0/1) is his Marquise Brown…and that has been an erratic thing, with spike moments in Baltimore.
Dallas Goedert will be his Mark Andrews…and that has been good for TDs and moderate on everything else.
Running QBs tend to throw for 200 +/- yards in games, more 150-200 yards because of the QB running more, and the success you can find in the overall run game with opponents worried about the QB running off the read option. The passing game FF-results are going to suffer, but not any worse than it was with Wentz.
We just don’t know if Hurts will have a favorite target. Reagor has to be the favorite to be his favorite, and if he is the guy…everyone else will not matter aside from 1-2 catches in games among the WR group.
-- Hurts’ impact on the running game?
Well, it’s probably some help for Miles Sanders (10-31-0) rushing yardage totals, but a killer for his receiving/PPR ways. Lamar Jackson hardly ever throws to his RBs. See, also: Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara.
The focus/worry about Hurts will help Sanders some as a rusher, BUT I’d really worry Sanders gets beat up/hurt with all the up the middle running.
Also, running QBs tend to take a majority of the rushing TDs. Just ask Damien Harris, the Baltimore-RBBC trio, and Alvin Kamara/Latavius Murray. Hurts is built better to run the ball from the goal line than Sanders.
Jordan Howard (4-19-0) might see some more time too, because (a) he’s built better for the interior pounding, and (b) is a better RB than Sanders…in my opinion, always has been (see: 2019 season in Philly with both for my state’s evidence). However, that’s my vision NOT Doug Pederson’s, who thinks Sanders is a god.
Boston Scott (2-9-0) might as well retire. The Darren Sproles role doesn’t exist with Hurts.
-- TE side note…
Zach Ertz (2-31-0/4) was back and was mostly a non-factor. Dallas Goedert (5-66-0/7) has seized the day for the Eagles, but what that really FF-means for either TE with Hurts at QB is TBD.
-- I said it in the Monday Midday report on the Sunday games: Aaron Jones (15-130-1, 3-18-0/3) would have been a full scale FF panic this week had he not busted off that late game, fortuitous 77-yard TD. Without that capping play…Jones would have had 53 yards rushing, 18 receiving, and no TDs again.
You have to play Jones every week, but his numbers are weakening the last few weeks. Without that 77-yarder, Jones would have rushed for less than 75 yards in seven if his last 8 games. Jones, without that TD, would have 4 TDs his last 8 games as well. Not bad numbers, just not ‘top RB1’ type numbers.
-- Allen Lazard (3-50-0/4) has 2-4-3 for catch counts since his return from core surgery. Takeaway the game where Davante Adams was out (Week 3) and in 5 games Lazard has played with Adams/Rodgers, his targets in games has been: 4-5-4-6-4 (4.6 per game).
Not FF-exciting.
Likely never will be until Adams doesn’t exist…and Lazard will probably be gone before Adams in this organization.
-- Who the Eagles QB is going forward not only affects the various Eagles’ weapons, but also the DST projections on the units facing them.
Facing Wentz might be the best thing to attack in all of the NFL now, given his spiral + terrible O-Line.
Facing Hurts makes a pause in the opposing DST enthusiasm. Hurts bring different elements to the table, etc.
You’re starting the Saints-DST Week 14 regardless, but you really want Wentz.
I like Arizona ahead because of Week 15 vs. Philly but not near as much if it Hurts. I go from ‘excited play’ on the Cardinals-DST to ‘pause’ if Hurts is in.
Week 16 vs. Dallas…it would be something if facing spiraling Wentz, but it’s a no go if facing Hurts.
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = Davante
46 = MVS
42 = Lazard
40 = A Jones
21 = Jamaal W
52 = Goedert
27 = Ertz
44 = Reagor
44 = Ward
35 = Jeffrey
25 = Fulgham
35 = Sanders
16 = Scott
11 = JoHo
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Raiders 28, Jets 24
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Raiders were pulling away from the Jets…a mid-3rd-quarter TD put Las Vegas up 24-13, and all looked right with the world.
On my Sunday morning Video Q&A pregame show, I talked about why I didn’t take LV for my ‘Survivor Pool’ pick (still alive through Week 13, thanks to the Vikings…never had a doubt)…that something just didn’t feel right about this game. However, by mid-3rd-quarter it looked like those fears might be unfounded.
Then the Jets scored a TD with 10+ minutes left. Then they scored another TD with 5+ minutes left and suddenly NYJ led the game 28-24.
The Raiders got the ball back, drove down the field, and fell short. It felt like the Jets had finally won a game! But when the Raiders gave the ball back to the Jets…NY proceeded to lose the way they lost to the Patriots late a few weeks ago – blowing a lead with a bad offense incapable of getting a 1st-down when needed. All the Jets needed to do was get one 1st-down and seal the deal…and they went three & out in the span of 0:55 seconds.
The Raiders had to go 61 yards in 0:35 seconds with no timeouts to win. Impossible…except for ‘this is the Jets’. On 3rd & 10 with seconds remaining, Henry Ruggs put a basic move on his cornerback, who bit and Ruggs went deep for a bomb/untouched 46-yard score to win because the Jets were not in a prevent defense.
Las Vegas was the better team, but not by much and they allowed the Jets to hang around. Actually, the Jets almost won the moment Frank Gore was hurt early – because it forced the Jets to use some talented RBs they’ve ignored, and those two backs combined for 178 yards rushing on 30 carries without Gore. They almost got the Jets to a win, but the Jets can’t not be the Jets.
The Raiders (7-5) saved their season with the lucky win…or it would’ve been three losses in a row and some chaos in the desert. Instead, Vegas has opportunity (or death) all in front of them…facing (8-4) Indy Week 14…the winner getting a huge boost for the wild card. Then Week 16 hosting Miami could be another huge wild card moment for the winner.
NYJ has a tough schedule the rest of the way. Week 16 hosting Cleveland might be an opportunity. Week 17 at New England, if the Pats are out of the playoffs and playing for nothing – which, if you’re Belichick…you want the Jets to beat you if it means they’d then miss out on Trevor Lawrence, right? Wouldn’t you think Belichick wants him out of the division? If there is a future’s bet on Week 17, NYJ at NE…take the points and the Jets right now.
Late Breaking News Monday: The Jets fired Gregg Williams. A couple thoughts…
1) He is a cancer to management wherever he goes, so you knew this was coming eventually…from the first day he was signed.
Do NFL teams ever learn? I submit to you, for the ten millionth time…they do not.
2) He deserved the firing after not switching coverage up on Darren Waller, while getting brutalized by him all Week 13. Also, not being in a prevent type coverage late to avoid the Ruggs event.
3) He was the driving force behind this aggressive defense…built for him, by him. They will rollover next week…I’m all-the-way-the-hell-in on Seattle over the Jets Week 14. My Survivor Pick for Week 14, almost a lock that it will be Seattle. We’ll see if COVID changes anything midweek…
This Jets defense is going from bad-to-worse off this news. Offensive players will shine against them for sure. SEA-LAR-CLE the next three games.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Frank Gore (1-2-0) got concussed on his first hit of the game. Most likely, he will miss Week 14. No need to thrust him back into the action…but we’ll see, ‘this is the Jets’.
Rookie dud LaMichal Perine is on I.R. with the earliest he can return being Week 15.
Week 14 will likely feature the two ‘stars’ of Week 13 for the Jets…the unwanted-by-their-own-team’s-coaches ‘stars’ – Ty Johnson (22-104-1, 2-13-0/2) and Josh Adams (8-74-0).
It was Johnson given the push upon the Gore injury. It was Adams who started popping big runs when he got his shot, but immediately upon seeing that success the Jets had to get Adams out of there so he wouldn’t mess their failure plan up. *For the record, if you’re new to FFM, I believe Josh Adams should be a starting RB in the NFL today. I like Ty Johnson’s talent OK, and he should have been playing ahead of Perine all along – but Adams is the real runner talent here.
Just so you know I’m not crazy. Adams came in and had three 10+ yard rushes in his 8 carries. His final two carries both for 10+ yards…notice I said ‘final’ carries. After back-to-back 10+ yard totes in the 3rd-quarter, he never carried the ball again if my notes are correct. This is the Jets.
If you had to guess what the Jets will do Week 14, you would guess they do two things…
1) Whatever makes the least sense/is the least helpful towards winning.
2) Do exactly what they did Week 13 when the ‘crisis’ hit.
The answer to both #1 and #2…is heavy Ty Johnson with Josh Adams sprinkled in. Johnson saw 39 snaps/24 touches, Adams 19 snaps/8 touches this game.
Johnson for a spot start Week 14…he’s got some upside. It’s a spot against Seattle, a decent run defense against a bad Jets run game. If Gore can go Week 14…Gore will lead, and Johnson will see 4-5 touches, at best.
Ty J is ‘hope’ but not ‘wow’ for Week 14. Perine comes back Week 15, and if healthy, he immediately goes back to the starter…and Gore would be the backup/relief back when he’s healthy. Whichever backs are there for Week 15…facing the Rams, they’re all dead on that matchup.
-- Devontae Booker (16-50-0, 1-1-0/2) got his big chance to start, and it was underwhelming. Good play by a vastly improved Jets run defense and Booker looked fine but bottled up most of the game.
I think there’s a chance Josh Jacobs misses Week 15 v. IND, so Booker would draw another start – but if the LV run game was bottled up by the Jets…it’s definitely getting halted by the Colts. But Booker would see 15+ carries again for what that is FF-worth.
I think Jacobs is less than 50-50 to face the Colts, as of this writing, as I proposed was an issue last Tuesday on the Video Q&A. When LV gave a tryout to Spencer Ware last week…you knew something had management spooked on Jacobs’ recovery time.
-- Darren Waller (13-200-2/17) did nothing overly special in this game…it’s just the Jets single covered him with a slow linebacker one-on-one and Carr kept throwing it because Waller was wide open and the Jets didn’t really adjust to it until later in the game…and that didn’t really even matter.
Week 14 for LV…the Colts are maybe the best defense covering the tight end in the NFL, so it will be an interesting matchup. Not that you sit Waller or anything, but many of you with Waller going in the first playoff game of 2020…you wish Waller were not facing a shutdown-the-TE defense.
-- Nelson Agholor (4-38-0/11) is starting to stumble to the finish line. The Raiders #1 WR (which doesn’t mean squat in this offense) did not look great here in what should’ve been a very easy matchup. He’s banged up/was questionable for this game earlier in the week…so, it could be a physical slowdown.
His numbers have been tailing off the past few weeks…even with a bump in targets the last few weeks. Either he needs time to heal or Bryan Edwards (0-0-0/1) is going to start seeing a few more snaps/touches to try and reclaim that starting role. Regardless…it’s hard to FF-trust anything outside of Jacobs-Waller on the Raiders.
-- It’s fair to say Henry Ruggs (3-84-1/4) is trending upwards…his last two games 3.0 rec., 70.0 yards, 0.50 TDs per game…but the 46-yard TD in one-on-one coverage here when they Jets should’ve been in prevent gives him all the statistical boost to be a head fake.
Fantasy analysts are going to point to his last 2-4 game averages as proof of an uptrend, but this somewhat fortuitous game winning TD is driving attention away from what is a WR4 story. If you can’t trust Agholor here, you can’t trust the lesser targeted, less-important-to-Carr WR in Ruggs for FF purposes.
-- Denzel Mims (2-40-0/3) had a couple of nice 15+ yard catches, but just two this week…and no real signs of an ‘it’ moment. He’s playing very low-key good football. I can see the slow progression to real NFL WR. I just haven’t seen the moment where I go ‘wow’, yet.
Not sure I’ll get it with him + Sam Darnold (14-23 for 186 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT).
Darnold’s ‘guy’ is Jamison Crowder (5-47-2/7), who got back to his WR1 with Darnold ways here in this game, after a week off of that with last week’s dud.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Perriman
50 = Mims
42 = Crowder
05 = Berrios
39 = Ty Johnson
19 = Adams
02 = Gore
33 = Booker
32 = Richard
13 = Riddick
