R.C. Fischer

FFM

29 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Chargers 39, Jaguars 29

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

This game was jaw dropping after re-watching what really happened.

The Chargers jumped out to a 16-0 lead and it felt like the Chargers were going to win 50+ to nothing. Right before the half, the Jags got some momentum and closed the game to 16-14 LAC by the half. Right out of halftime, the Jags blocked a punt and took it in for a TD and all of a sudden, the Jaguars were winning 21-16.

Justin Herbert was about to put the hammer down.

LAC scored a TD to take the lead back 22-21. The Jags scored in response to take the lead 29-22. Herbert came back with a 70-yard TD to tie it 29-29, then Herbert scored again to cap off a 20-point 3rd-quarter and take a lead they’d never relinquish. The Chargers won by 10 but felt like they were 100+ points better than the Jags. I’m not sure how Jacksonville stayed in this game so long.

The Chargers are (2-4) and are the best 2-win team in the NFL. Imagine if Herbert had started right away… LAC has two wins and 4 close losses they should’ve won. It’s a potential (6-0) team masquerading as a (2-4) sad sack.

I bet against the Chargers winning 7.5 games this season – and I am thinking I’m going to lose that now. We see the Chargers getting to 8 wins now…with 9 possible, and 7 possible. Come on Anthony Lynn, save me!!

Jacksonville is done. Doug Marrone is trying to get fired but hasn’t been able too yet. He’s probably wondering what is taking so long. The team went all in on Gardner Minshew as their franchise QB for 2020, starting midway 2019…and six weeks into this season, Marrone is hinting about benching him. Yeah…Minshew is the problem. Got it.

If Minshew loses his job before Marrone, I’ll never endorse Jacksonville for anything ever again.

The Jags are going to quit on Marrone, because he quit on Minshew…and Minshew is now going to quit on Marrone. If Minshew had pass protection he might really soar from here just doing what he wants racking numbers, but on every play it seems he’s about to get sacked 2-3 steps into his 5-step drop every time now. 5.0 sacks, 9 QB hits for the Chargers this game. The Marrone Jaguars are ‘finished’…New York Jets bad, or worse. They have the young talent but Marrone is killing it…like 2019. It’s over.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Just a quick note…Justin Herbert (27-43 for 347 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 9-66-1) continues to be the best rookie QB I’ve ever seen play his rookie season. Only Patrick Mahomes and maybe Russell Wilson are better NFL QBs right now/2020. Herbert is like fine art to watch play QB. He has it all.

Watching Herbert breeze through his rookie year with bad coaching…I’m starting to wonder if Tua is not as good as Burrow/Herbert, and he isn’t, but that still might mean Tua is a top 15 QB in the NFL day one because the new age rookies are better than most all existing QBs instantly.

Anthony Lynn may beat ‘it’ out of him, but right now…as I’ve been saying since like Week 3…I’ve never seen anything like it/Herbert…not Baker’s 1st0-year. Not Burrow, although he has been great. Definitely not Kyler’s first year, which was promising.

 -- Gardner Minshew (14-27 for 173 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 4-21-0) pales by comparison to Herbert, but Minshew is a cautionary tale for Herbert…because Minshew looked fabulous early on/as a rookie. Surreal at times. Now, he’s fighting off Jake Luton or Mike Glennon less than a year later.

When you put great QB talent with awful, old-school, controlling, ogre head coaches…it can kill the QB. It’s like letting ‘Russ cook’. How many times have you heard that this year? Did anyone in the NFL ever stop to think what that statement really means? It really means Pete Carroll is so incredibly stupid he had the NFL’s best QB under wraps for years on purpose. It wasn’t Russ not letting Russ cook. It wasn’t the fans doing it. Who was it that was not allowing said cooking? Why aren’t there ramifications for this?

Imagine at your workplace you were such an awful supervisor that you drove down sales and profits with a business, doing so with employees that everyone thinks has talent and profitability – you’d be demoted or fired quickly upon the multiple year failed results. So how does Pete Carroll get away with this?

Football Society: Oh, man…good ole Pete is 114 years old but he looks like he’s 57. The players love his enthusiasm!!!

Me: Yeah that’s great, but let’s get back to the not letting the thing that everyone knows can cook not cook issue…it doesn’t trouble you?

Football Society: Nope! Pete had Will Ferrell at practice once. It was hilarious. We all laughed. Pete’s so young at heart!!

Me: But the cooking thing…in order for people to yell about ‘letting Russ cook’…it means something was not allowing him to cook prior. Who was the cook-blocker? Wasn’t it Pete Carroll? Shouldn’t that be grounds for termination? What else might he not be allowing to cook that he should?

Football Society: I mean, the players love him. He won a Super Bowl you know!

Me: Well, so did Barry Switzer…by letting Jimmy Johnson’s players cook. So, no punishment for this cook problem for the last several years with Carroll?

Football Society: Why are you allowing the Russian disinformation to make you hate Pete Carroll?

Where was I? Oh, Marrone has undermined Gardner Minshew and this only ends poorly for Minshew and the team.

 -- If Minshew is benched, D.J. Chark (1-26-0/7) is Terry McLaurin with Dwayne Haskins, or Darius Slayton with Dan Jones, or worse. Probably worse.

The good news…Minshew targeted Chark more than any other Jaguar this game.

The bad news…it resulted in one catch, and that was a chore of a completion.

There should be garbage time here, but we can’t get that…but note the Chargers have a good defense/cover people…and they doubled him a bunch. Some of this was LAC…a lot of this is Doug Marrone has killed off this team.

 -- No such issues for Herbert getting the ball where he wants to. However, some of who you think should thrive in this passing game are not.

And I see issues with them…

1) Mike Williams (1-4-0/3) – Justin Herbert is basically throwing the ball to whomever he wants at will. But somehow his throws to Mike Williams look way off base. Actually, in this game – Herbert dropped back and looked everywhere except for where Williams was. It’s almost like Herbert doesn’t want to throw to him.

Based on this game and all the prior Herbert-Williams events…it’s not good. Williams going off only when Keenan Allen left the game a few weeks ago.

2) Hunter Henry (3-23-0/7) looks terrible. No life in his legs. Never open in one-on-one coverage. I don’t know if he’s hurt or just too many knee injuries. He looks a little like Trey Burton to me suddenly…slow and stiff and never open in one-on-ones. Henry has value as the TE here, but his upside has to be capped because he’s working so slow. Maybe he opens up like Gronk did after a few weeks, but right now Henry looks like he’s stuck in molasses.

 -- Jalen Guyton (2-84-1/3) is making some big plays/long TDs but not much otherwise. 1-3 targets a game, 1-2 catches, but one of them for big numbers typically (of late).

This could be a blip…or a sign of things to come. It feels like it’s a Kalif Raymond or Marvin Hall 2019 blip. I don’t see any effort by Herbert to up his work/game with Guyton.

 -- Donald Parham (1-22-1/1) is a young player who has my interest. A legit 6’8”, fairly athletic TE prospect in 2019 who got shunned by the NFL and then went and had a good run with the XFL, and is now becoming the red zone threat for the Chargers, slowly but surely (which hurts H Henry a little bit).

Parham was kinda wiry framed/built, like a half TE/WR, out of Stetson in 2019. He wasn’t the typical T.J. Hockenson profile that NFL guys crave – the big bulky blockers with average speed and decent hands/non-playmakers. The NFL is so unimaginative, they didn’t explore what they could do with a 6’8” TE who was a playmaker in college and at the East-West Shine practices I watched him work at in 2019.

It’s a long road to ‘making it’ for a guy like Parham, who will be denied opportunity because he’s a UDFA that makes the system look bad if he does well…he must be shown to not be any good because he wasn’t drafted.

Parham has two catches this season (in the last 3 weeks)…both for TDs, from 19 and 22 yards out.

 -- Josh Kelley (12-29-0, 5-24-0/5) is averaging 3.1 yards per carry this season.

Justin Jackson (5-12-0, 5-43-0/6) is averaging 3.4 yards per carry this season.

You want to see a minimum of 4.0 ypc. So, why are these guys so low? Do they suck? I don’t think so, I think it’s more the LAC O-Line is so devastated by injury as this season has gone on…it’s right up there with Philly and Dallas as corrupted O-Line situations for guys to try and run behind. It’s almost a lost cause.

It’s going to be a hot hand approach and either ‘hot’ one is going to be stuck scraping for yards due to the O-Line. The two combined for 2.4 yards per carry in this game…against Jacksonville, of all defenses. Not good.

 -- One of the reasons the run game was even worse than normal…might have been the presence of the debut of LB Quincy Williams (7 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD).

All I can tell you is – the guy I saw on this tape, the Quincy in this game…that’s the guy I thought was going to be a monster LB in the NFL. Quick to the ball and hitting like a ton of bricks. Good to see. He’s back onto the Dynasty Stash reports for sure!

 -- One of the helpers for the LAC run game might be WR-who-could-be-an-RB rookie Joe Reed (2-14-1). He is a Deebo Samuel waiting to happen…and lookie here, 2 carries, one near the goal line…easy TD, 7.0 yards per carry on his two touches. Expect to see more Reed ahead because the WR jet sweep can help with the OL issues. It also means you’re going to be hard pressed to get TDs from Kelley-Jackson week-to-week.

Reed will only be lowly used by LAC ahead, I think. No big breakout imminent…but I hope I’m wrong. He’s still in his infancy stage.

 -- James Robinson (22-119-1, 4-18-1/6) is the center of the Jags universe. He’s a ‘C’ grade, solid RB prospect that has gotten the coaches so committed to him that they have placed the offense on his back. Something tells me…this won’t end well, hold up, ride off into the sunset with this gem RB1 for years. I’m a sell-high, right now…very high…like a top 5-8 RB in fantasy high valuation.

Do you think this Jags team is built to carry a running back to FF glory? He’d been sagging for weeks before this. Sell the rookie new car smell hot.

In Dynasty, do you think the new coach is going into battle with Robinson as his singular lead…the RB that got Doug Marrone fired, in part?

 -- There were moments in this game the Chargers defense looked dominant. They have elements of a dominating defense, and when they get CB Chris Harris back from injury…they might just start hitting that higher level. Like a top 5 best defense in the NFL level. A poor man’s Tampa Bay defense if everyone can stay healthy.

They have an offense now that can help support it.

Snap Counts of Interest:

69 = K Allen

61 = Mk Williams

54 = Guyton

07 = J Reed

62 = H Henry

18 = Parham

38 = Kelley

31 = J Jackson

55 = DJ Chark

48 = Cole

47 = Shenault

16 = Conley

R.C. Fischer

FFM

29 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: 49ers 33, Patriots 6

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

I can’t substantiate it, but I’ll just say it anyway – this was the worst played game I’ve ever seen from a Bill Belichick team. No joke, with little hyperbole…the Patriots played like they did not care. Their young players are giving an effort, but are mostly all mediocre talents. The veteran players are mailing it in. I saw some defenders in position/running towards ballcarriers in position to make tackles…and then slowing up and not even trying.

Several Patriots players opted-out before the season started. Some are opting out while going through the motions on the field. If I’m Belichick, I have to be totally embarrassed and question why I’d even want to return to this mess in 2021 – he needs to blow everything up and change offensive coordinators and go through a 1-2 year rebuild…all while Tom Brady currently plays better than he has in a decade and the Buccaneers are instantly 10x better than what Belichick has woven together.

The sure sign of NFL coaches going into a decline phase of their career…seeing them pop up in commercials. Belichick’s best work this season has been for Subway, not Robert Kraft.

This Patriots group has one last stand hope…beat Buffalo this week. I think the Pats are going to get obliterated and thus effectively end the season and start giving away veteran next week and using the rest of the season as a training camp for young players. If they beat Buffalo, they’re still ‘in it’ but they aren’t going anywhere even if they do make the playoffs. I think they lose to the Bills and pack it in for 2020 – cutting Cam, trading/cutting Edelman, etc.

Of course, I thought the 49ers were dead after Week 5, after getting crushed by Miami…but they’ve beaten the brakes off of two decent teams since (LAR and NE). The schedule is coming for SF now: at SEA, GB, NO, BYE, at LAR, BUF the next five games could send them to (5-7)/(6-6) and scuffling to get to 9 wins and a wild card. If the 49ers win 11+ games and win the NFC West, with all their injuries, Kyle Shanahan deserves a permanent Coach of the Year award/prize.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Here’s how bad the Patriots played this game…4th/5th-string RB Jeff Wilson (17-112-3, 2-8-0/2) ran for 100+ yards and 3 TDs just in just 2+ quarters of play. He got hurt on his 3rd TD run and left the game right after. He might have had 200+ yards and 5 TDs the way he was running (untouched by a soft NE defense).

When Wilson left, UDFA rookie JaMycal Hasty (9-57-0, 1-16-0/1) continued the party. Hasty looks pretty good and is in a position to be a shock RB1 this week…even against a good Seattle run defense.

I know it won’t be Jerick McKinnon (3-0-0) as an RB1 this week…he died and went to RB heaven about 3 weeks ago.

Tevin Coleman could spoil the Hasty party by being active for Week 8, but he’s probably going to return for Week 9. Hasty has a 1-2 week run in him before Raheem Mostert returns.

 -- It’s simplistic, but let’s run with it…Brandon Aiyuk (6-115-0/7) is kinda Deebo like, a more wiry, quicker twitch version. So, with Deebo out it’s likely Aiyuk becomes that WR1-1.5 that Deebo was starting to track into to (until Deebo returns).

The 49ers have no other options at WR, so expect Aiyuk to see 2-4 carries and 10+ targets a game with Deebo out…and gets a very ‘giving’ Seattle pass defense).

 -- Cam Newton (9-15 for 98 yards, 0 TD/3 INTs) career probably comes down to the Week 8 game at BUF. If the Pats win and Cam is good…the season is temporarily saved. If Cam throws 2-3 picks in a crushing defeat, Belichick will trade him or cut him Monday after Week 8’s game.

A big loss to the Bills means the Patriots season is done and they might as well see what they have with Jarrett Stidham (6-10 for 64 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT), which doesn’t look like a whole lot at this point.

Stidham has completed 48.1% of his passes with 1 TD/4 INTs so far in his career…this thing looks like it is going down fast.

 -- The Patriots have nothing exciting to throw to, is part of the problem…

Jakobi Meyers (4-60-0/6), I believe, with the way he played this game…has earned a starting role. The only WR that I’ve seen play with any juice for NE in weeks.

Meyers is a very sound, savvy, limited athlete WR. He has some Travis Fulgham upside…where the opportunity presents itself and he seizes it as a professional WR – but this passing game is nothing that will catapult WRs to fantasy glory. If it ever does, it could be Meyers this week. Cam was leaning on him hard for a stretch before everything died.

 -- The best weapon on the Patriots’ offense is Damien Harris (10-58-0, 1-12-0/1). I think we’re going to see a heavy workload from Harris this week, as their only hopes to control/defeat the Bills. Harris is the future of the Pats backfield. And the future might not be so congested next year when the rebuild removes Rex and James White among others.

 -- Two weeks ago, I declared the 49ers-DST dead…and since then they have two excellent FF events back-to-back. You can’t use them v. SEA this week…not Week 9 v. GB…nor Week 10 at NO…nor Week 11 on BYE. Are you prepared to hold them through the next 4 weeks to get to the LAR-BUF matchups Weeks 12-13? From Weeks 8-13…not a confident use game in there.

If they shut down Seattle, I have to fall on my sword and declare that I don’t know anything about football…

The 49ers, prior to the last two weeks have been giving up a ton of points for their last 10+ games going back to 2019.

Snap Counts of Interest:

48 = Byrd

41 = Meyers

31 = Edelman

11 = Harry

25 = Burkhead

21 = Harris

10 = White

37 = Wilson

15 = Hasty

12 = McKinnon

R.C. Fischer

FFM

28 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Lions 23, Falcons 22

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

This just felt like a ‘no one wants to win this game’ type of contest between these two…felt it during the live watch Sunday and again on the rewatch. Two mediocre/below average teams duking it out and it came down to bad ref calls and a shocking last second TD pass to take the deserved win away from the Falcons, thus ending their season effectively, and pumping life into the Lions season.

The Lions are now (3-3) and in the playoff race but definitely don’t feel or look like a playoff team, but in 2020 ‘who knows’? If they can beat the Colts this week, they got a shot to get to (8-8)/(9-7) with their schedule ahead. Something tells me they lose this week and then 5-6-7 wins is more the right projection.

Atlanta blew a golden opportunity. With a win they would have been (2-5) and trying to stay alive…but it’s over. Their schedule after their Week 10 bye is so brutal, they’re smart to just cash out before the trade deadline…and the rumor mill is already buzzing. We could see 2-3-4 Falcons dealt this next week…as ATL ends up a 3-4 win team this season in the end.

Fantasy Player Notes

 -- I guess D’Andre Swift (9-27-1, 4-21-0/5) is the Lions main RB now…a strong RB2 for fantasy ahead?

Swift dominated their first scoring drive with 4 carries for 27 yards, including a nice 3-yard TD run. I was thinking Swift was going to have a huge game with the early production against a really good v. the run ATL defense.

Swift saw 5 carries for 2 yards the rest of the game.

10 +/- carries and 3-6 catches a game is where he is headed, and is the team’s best goal line back because everyone knows if AP is in they’re not likely throwing the ball.

Swift is a strong/stable play for FF ahead in PPR especially.

 -- A tale of two TEs who had good output from this game…

1) T.J. Hockenson (5-59-1/6) took advantage of a terrible-against-the-TE defense by Atlanta. TJH is still a lump of nothing to me as an NFL receiving talent. Just plays a lot of snaps and is there for things. If the Lions never got a shot at that late game TD pass (to TJH) then it’s another useless game by the Hock for FF.

2) Hayden Hurst (6-68-0/7), however, is showing signs of an upswing. 50+ yards in a game in three of his last 4 games. 3 TDs in his last 6 games, and no TD here but was wide open for a 22-yarder but Matt Ryan threw the ball 6 inches too far for Hurst to grab.

Hurst is a for-sure stable TE1…Hockenson is a random TE1 if he can get a TD.

 -- Russell Gage (6-54-0/7) is perking back up again. After a hot start to the season he cooled way off Weeks 3-5, but is averaging 5.0 rec. (5.5 targets), 59.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game the past two games under Raheem Morris.

Not anything hot for FF but is rising back up as an option/on-the-radar in deeper leagues/PPR.

 -- Had Matt Stafford (25-36 for 340 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) not gotten the ball back with one minute left, he would have logged ANOTHER under 300 yards passing game and he would have had NO TD passes here…in a game vs. a weak ATL pass defense.

Stafford is a back-end QB2 nowadays. What a terrible decline from his stellar 2019 pace.

 -- DET DE Romeo Okwara (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 3 QB hits) is on fire as of late.

In his last 4 games, he’s averaging: 2.5 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1.0 TFLs, and 2.5 QB hits per game. He IS the Lions’ pass rush now. Against Indy this week is not favorable for sacks, but then MIN-WAS-CAR-HOU-CHI after that has promise for him to keep up his sack pace.

Snap Counts of Interest:

53 = Gurley

17 = Br Hill

59 = Julio

58 = Ridley

25 = Br Powell

24 = Gage

28 = Swift

19 = AP

14 = Kerryon

R.C. Fischer

FFM

28 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Saints 27, Panthers 24

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The Saints scored first and held the lead until the end of the 3rd-quarter. Carolina tied it going into the 4th-quarter, but the Saints hit a field goal with 7+ minutes left. Carolina was last minute driving for a game tying FG attempt…Teddy got sacked and took them from a 50+ yard FG to a 65-yard attempt…in which Joey Slye split the uprights on it but his kick went 64.8 yards, and just went under the crossbar for a heartbreaking ending.

This was a back and forth game. Hard to tell who the better team was…at New Orleans. That’s a sign that: (a) The Panthers are really good among the ‘average’ teams. And (b) The Saints are fading away, getting lucky to win week-to-week. Their run with Brees, et al. is over. The Bucs have surpassed them, among others.

The Saints are now (4-2), lucky they aren’t (1-5). If they lose at TB Week 9…they might not even be a playoff team. I think they will get destroyed in Week 9 and then we’d project them to go 9 wins, 10 wins possible.

The Panthers are (3-4) and that’s about what they are…a .500 team. They are the future of the NFC South from 2022 on. Right now, they’re just a pesky team to play each week…not ready for primetime. 7-8 wins are very possible for Carolina this season…9 wins on the table.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Will Christian McCaffrey (DNP) play Week 8? Probably not, but he looks strong for Week 9. This is the final week of Mike Davis (7-12-0, 5-24-0/5), which is timely because he looks like he’s running out of steam a bit. Just 2.6 yards per carry his last two games…he may be secretly banged up. He was a bit questionable a few weeks ago.  

It’s getting so bad at RB that UDFA rookie CB Myles Hartsfield (2-2-0) took the second-most carries in the game for the Panthers. Hartsfield recently converted to RB (a former high school RB star) to help the cause.

In a key goal line situation late, Curtis Samuel (1-5-1, 6-48-0/6) took a goal line TD to tie the game.

If no CMC, Davis is a play Week 8…but worry about underperformance. If CMC can play, Davis may not see the relief touches we think…I believe he needs a week to recoup from his injuries/hits he’s been taking. He’s always been an injury bug guy.

 -- Robby Anderson (6-74-0/8) is still the Carolina WR to have.

D.J. Moore (4-93-2/5) scored 2 TDs, and that’s great but he’s just a 3rd-wheel in this passing game now…and it’s working, so no hate for the FF results but the real activity is that Robby is Teddy’s guy and then Custis Samuel has become a de facto go-to in the important spots, a clutch WR …he’s caught like 14-of-14 passes converting 3rd-downs this season. He’s been a low-key MVP for the Panthers.

Moore hit on a 74-yard catch and run TD this game…which is nice. But he had 3 catches for 19 yards otherwise. He’s closer to being 2020 Christian Kirk than you think.

Moore has 6 or fewer targets in four of his last five games…he’s averaged 4.8 catches per game the past 5 weeks.

In that same span, Samuel has 4.5 catches per game…but add in his rushing attempts and he has his hands on the ball 7.2 times per game compared to Moore’s 4.8.

Samuel is getting back on the Flex radar.

 -- Marquez Callaway (8-75-0/10) became the new favorite target for Drew Brees…by attrition. No Thomas-Sanders this game.

All I saw was Callaway running basic routes and sitting in pockets of the zone and Brees hitting him for easy catches. No star activity, just ‘available’…and Tre’Quan Smith 4-54-0/4) sucks/is useless so a UDFA rookie WR is now more important in a crisis.

Callaway could be a factor this week if Thomas-Sanders out again, but he’s very questionable with a late-game injury that didn’t look great. I don’t see a star or even a Travis Fulgham or Marcus Johnson-like potential rise to power. It just is what it is, that I see. Will go away quickly when Thomas-Sanders returns.

 -- Jared Cook (3-32-1/4) is doing Jared Cook things…lower volume, high propensity for TDs. 3 TDs in his last 4 games. Under 35 yards with just 2 catches each game in three of his last four games. That’s who he is…but with some hope for upside for more when Thomas-Sanders returns, and things get back to more normal for the Saints.

 -- Saints DE Marcus Davenport (2 tackles, 1.0 sacks) is back from injury. In his two games played this year…3 QB hits total. He’s getting to the QB playing about 50% of the snaps on defense as a pass rush specialist. He’s showing signs of sacks to come especially against bad O-Line play. Problem is no great matchups for IDP the next 3 weeks: CHI-TB-SF.

 -- Is the Saints-DST a sleeper/worthy of attention ahead? Going into the season people felt like this was a top NFL defense…it hasn’t been.

The have value vs. CHI this week but then at TB, SF, at ATL is not great. I’m not seeing any signs that this defense is turning a corner…I see more things to worry about then get excited about.

Snap Counts of Interest:

58 = Kamara

23 = Murray

33 = Mk Davis

22 = Samuel

04 = Hartsfield

03 = Cannon

R.C. Fischer

FFM

28 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Bucs 45, Raiders 20

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

I’m not sure how this became a blowout. The Raiders had just scored a TD to cut the lead to 24-20 TB with 12+ minutes in the game…and then a quick turnover led to a quick TB score and nine game minutes later the Bucs added 3 TDs and it was nearly a half-a-hundred hung on the Raiders.

The Bucs went full scale Air Raid offense in this game. Tom Brady threw 45 times for 369 yards and only missed on 12 of his passes and most of those missed passes were downfield pushing down the accelerator on the offense. Brady looked like the Brady of 5-10 years ago. Soon…he’s going to get Antonio Brown on top of all of this.

The real loser in this game – Bill Belichick. Tom Brady is going to win his division, be a top passer in the league, and potentially go to a Super Bowl at age 43 basically taking a loser franchise on his back and creating a monster, while Bill Belichick suffers his worst home loss in forever and his new QB cannot complete a forward pass. In the eternal battle of – is it the coach or the QB? The answer is – it’s the QB. Pete Carroll and Bruce Arians, among others, should be tithing to their QBs. Further proof…Mike McCarthy’s resume this very day.

Tampa Bay has one of the highest functioning offenses in the NFL and is about to add one of the greatest WRs of our generation in two weeks. They have two legit NFL starting RBs. They have the best TE of our generation. They have the most menacing defense in the NFL. Arguably…this is the best team, top-to-bottom in the NFL. Week 12 hosting Kansas City is likely a Super Bowl preview. The Bucs are headed to 12-13 wins and a possible NFC #1 seed, which will be important to NOT head to Green Bay or Seattle in January.

Las Vegas just happened to be in the way of this Mack truck. It shouldn’t be held against them. They were toe-to-toe for 45+ minutes here. The Raiders will win 9-10 games and be a tough out in the playoffs.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- A week ago, people were dropping Leonard Fournette (11-50-0, 6-47-0/7). Now, he’s starting in fantasy lineups. After being a ghost for three weeks, all is forgiven…apparently.

My thoughts on Fournette vs. Ronald Jones (13-34-1, 1-2-0/2)…

1) Ronald Jones started, played the first couple series here. Fournette filtered in as the new 3rd-down back early on, a role which I had been predicting was coming for weeks. Jones wasn’t punished or overtaken, per se…just the Bucs were just Air Raiding on Las Vegas and Fournette fits that plan better.

But they may not stop Air Raiding now…

2) Fournette is 10x the receiver RoJo is, so if Brady is calling the shots…Fournette will be in every passing opportunity.

3) We’ve been head-faked before on TB things…on Scottie Miller, on Fournette taking over for RoJo from that time he had that one good 2nd-half earlier this season. Don’t be too cavalier that this one game means Jones is dead and Fournette is all the rage. You’ve been burned by that before…or have you forgotten already in a ‘only last week matters’ FF culture?

4) I’d project this to be a 50-50 split on playing time, some hot hand, Jones more when running is the right matchup, and Fournette in on all passing situations – meaning they are both RB2s with TD hopes and Fournette better for PPR most games.

You want to hold both these guys if possible…if one goes down the other is a STRONG RB1, but like CEH-Le’Veon – I don’t know how you split an RB2 and get an RB1 and RB2 out of it…or even two RB2s. I think we’re about to get an FF-nightmare of ‘guessing’ the right weeks for the right RB and then we’re always a week late on it.

 -- Nelson Agholor (5-107-1/9) looks fantastic. I’ve been pointing him out for many weeks, but it’s not just ‘he’s getting the most targets’ – it’s that he’s become reborn as an outside receiver, miscast as a slot WR in Philly.  

First series of this game, against a hot TB defense, he came out of the gates with a 28-yard play and a few plays later caught a 20-yard TD…he was hot from the jump.

As I’ve been saying for several weeks – he is the Raiders #1 WR. Agholor has come out of nowhere…it kills Bryan Edwards enthusiasm for the rest of 2020, and possibly into 2021.

The Raiders had an opening for a #1 WR. Edwards won it in training camp, he’s still a very good prospect and you’ll see it that soon enough – but the Raiders don’t have room to support three names in the passing game. It’s Waller-Agholor now. Ruggs-Renfrow-Edwards fighting for scraps.

 -- Tom Brady (33-45 for 369 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) is a no brainer QB1 ahead. When they get Antonio Brown, he’ll have an all-star team to throw to. When A.B. joins, here’s what I think the pecking order will be in Brady’s heart/eyes/targets:

1) Antonio Brown – No question. The only question is…how long before it’s fully up to speed? It may hit right away. It may not really start popping until Weeks 10-11.

2) Gronk (5-62-1/8) – 5.0 rec. (8.0 targets), 70.0 yards, 1.0 TDs per game. Gronk looks better here than he did his last 2-3 years with Belichick. Another sign that Belichick didn’t have the vision for general offense like Brady…and that Josh McDaniels is not a real head coaching candidate. McDaniels held them back. Yet, some owner will shove him $50M to be a head coach next year.

How many times does the QB have to prove they are the ‘the reason’, not the O-C?

It will be the A.B. and Gronk show…and then everyone else fights for big scraps that will be out there.

3) Chris Godwin (9-88-9) – When defenses shift to AB-Gronk, Godwin is going to work with the lesser coverage. If Brady is going Air Raid, he can support AB-Gronk and Godwin.

After the top 3…everything else is as-needed any moment, but not ‘a plan’.

4) Scottie Miller (6-109-1/9) is going to be lost in coverage a lot and Brady seems to have a nice connection with him.

5) Mike Evans (2-37-0/2) – How Evans could fall from grace so fast in this is mind boggling if you think about it. But he’s been a nobody all year with Brady.

2.7 rec. (4.3 targets), 29.3 yards, 0.33 TDs per game = Evans’s last 3 games

1.7 rec. (3.0 targets), 24.0 yards, 0.67 TDs per game = Tyler Johnson’s last 3 games, playing part time two of the games.

6) Tyler Johnson (2-4-1/2) – Nice #6 WR to have! He could matter this one week only (Week 8) with Godwin out.

 -- Josh Jacobs (10-17-0, 3-14-0/4) had a nothing FF game, but you knew it was coming vs. TB’s run defense.

Jacobs has yet to run for a 100+ yard game this season.

Jacobs is the #26 RB in fantasy since Week 2…just behind David Montgomery and Darrell Henderson…and just ahead of Jeff Wilson.

The more I look at this, the more I say you should trade him in redraft. I was asked about trading him in our Video Q&A Tuesday Night show and I kinda balked…I was wrong. Trade him as a RB1 value, his name carries weight.

Don’t trade because he’s been a weak performer, but that’s true. No, trade because he’s been a weak performer AND the schedule is about to kill him off more, every other week.

His schedule ahead by least rush yards per game allowed…

Week 8 = #5 CLE

Week 9 = #15 LAC

Week 10 = #9 DEN

Week 11 = #30 KC

Week 12 = #6 ATL

Week 13 = #20 NYJ

Week 14 = #3 IND

Four of his next seven games with top 10 run defenses is going to add to his general issue.

 -- Daniel Carlson (2/2 FG, 2/2 XP) is the #6 PPG PK on the season to date…just one extra FG away from being #2. I’m a big fan. But just note – he kicks outside Week 8 at a windy, potentially rainy Cleveland this week. Be careful streaming him this week if your FF life is on the line this week.

 -- The Tampa Bay DST is starting to become the best defensive unit in all of football, and you can probably just run them out there every week with some confidence, but…

Weeks 9-13 could be disappointing…

Week 9 = v. NO is not great.

Week 10 = at CAR should be good

Week 11 = v LAR is probably OK

Week 12 = v. KC is trouble, potentially.

Week 13 = BYE

Weeks 9-13 might have 1-2 confident plays in 5 weeks in a key time in FF.

‍

Snap Counts of Interest:

51 = Agholor

49 = Ruggs

35 = Renfrow

32 = Jacobs

19 = Richard

15 = Booker

62 = Evans

59 = Godwin

43 = Miller

29 = Tyler Johnson

40 = Fournette

31 = RoJo

55 = Gronk

12 = Brate

R.C. Fischer

FFM

27 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Rams 24, Bears 10 I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar. This was a pretty straight forward game. The Rams played a fundamentally sound, smart football game against a tough defense and took a 10-3 halftime lead…and then made it 17-3…and then made it 24-3 by the end of the 3rd-quarter and they tried to let the Bears back into the games at various times but the Bears have one of the five worst offenses in football and arguably the worst run game – so when they’re down, they’re done. Matt Nagy is still, somehow, known as an offensive genius. The Rams have a good defense, for sure, but the Bears made them look like the 85 Bears at certain points. Credit the Rams for a smart win. I thought they’d get beat here or close to it. The Rams play smart football, get the most out of what they got, and the Bears are just not as good as everyone thought…all a combination for a dull, easy win for the Rams. The Rams head to Miami Week 8, always a tough road game to Miami…but they get to face Tua in his debut, so you have to like the better coached team in L.A. to throw fits at Tua – but new QBs, new O-Cs, often confuse defenses who don’t know ‘tendencies’ in their debuts, so it’s not an auto-win for the Rams. The Rams are headed to 10 +/- wins and the playoffs. Whether it’s as the NFC West winner or as a wild card. The Bears fall to (5-2) and have some schedule turbulence ahead. They are set up to lose at least three of their next 4 games. If so, they would be (6-5) heading to the schedule going easy again starting Week 13. Chicago getting 9-10 wins is on the table…a wild card is in sight, and then a quick playoff exit. But they do have Nick Foles…so, anything is possible. Fantasy Player Notes… -- The good news at Rams RB… Darrell Henderson (15-64-0, 2-13-0/2) is the clear starter. The bad news at Rams RB, for me, Darrell Henderson is splitting 65/35 time with Malcolm Brown (10-57-1, 0-0-0/1), and Brown got the lone RB TD this week. The good news is, Cam Akers (0-0-0/0) has drifted off to M.I.A. He’s been no threat to make this a trio RBBC. Henderson has played the majority of snaps, taken the majority of carries, and been the guy in the game for most of the important parts. Henderson is a solid RB2 week-to-week, with the hopes he gets a TD to get to RB1…I just described most RBs starting for FF teams this week. At least we have a floor set in of performance expectations and some hope for an upside against lesser run defenses. The problem is, DH faces (arguably) the three of the 5 toughest run defenses in the NFL Weeks 10-12…SEA-TB-SF. Factor in a Week 9 BYE, and you can’t have any confidence in split-role-starter Darrell Henderson in four of the next 5 weeks. In redraft, it’s wise to consider moving him this week in a deal, preemptively. If you’re counting on him and are playing for your FF life the next 4-5 weeks. There’s always a chance he gets a goal line score to make it work, but the data says, ‘trouble ahead’. In Dynasty, he’s a hold…the talent in the Rams backfield. If you don’t have him, you can acquire him cheaper in about 3-4 weeks if he puts up a bunch of 12-40-0 games in the tough stretch. -- I have to laugh, to keep from crying, watching this game… David Montgomery (14-48-0, 5-21-0/5) is the all-in back for the Bears organization and consistently fails/disappoints every week. While across the field this day, Darrell Henderson has to split with Malcom Brown. Imagine if Henderson got the David Montgomery treatment by his coaches…and the media? The NFL is unfair. Fantasy is unfair. Life is unfair. We grind on. 2020 Fantasy is a battle of wills – what FF owners are going to crack under the pressure of bad matchups, bad injuries, etc., and start to flail away with wild waivers and lineup choices versus what ones are going to keep their heads and play the board as smart as they can and try to grind their way into the FF playoffs? FF is a beast you cannot tame on demand in 2020. You just have to keep from being eaten by the beast for as long as you can locked in a cage with it. If you think you make poor lineup choices…look at Matt Nagy and his RB plans every week. You’d think they would’ve traded for an RB by now, but nope… -- My gut feeling player of the week, Darnell Mooney (3-40-0/7) didn’t hit. He had a couple deep ball shots but he’s not ready to shine yet. He will hit one of those deep balls soon…they keep trying it more each week and it’s close but no cigar. I wonder if Nagy ever thought a bubble screen or that WR jet sweep every other team runs for an automatic 5+ yards would be smart to try with their 4.2s running WR? Not yet, it hasn’t but there’s always next week…maybe…probably not. -- The Rams WRs weren’t too far off Mooney in FF performance… Cooper Kupp (6-43-0/6) has averaged 4.7 catches (7.5 targets), 47.3 yards, 0.0 TDs the past 3 games. Robert Woods (3-22-0/5) has averaged 3.7 catches (7.7 targets), 40.7 yards, 0.67 TDs receiving the past 3 games. What gives? What has happened to the Rams’ receivers the past 3 games? 1) They played pretty stout, tough pass defenses. 2) It looks like Sean McVay has gone all RB-split roles, and WR-split, and TE-split. They are not leaning on one player at any skill position. They attack the matchups, rotate to keep fresh, spread things around – it’s the way I would do things as an NFL coach. Don’t lean on one predictable thing one play to the next, but if I’m down I go with my best horses getting them the ball. But the Rams are getting up/ahead and just smartly spreading things around. Smart for the NFL, terrible/maddening for FF. It’s going to be hard to predict the Rams offensive weapons every week ahead it appears. You’re hoping you find the TD guy to make it worthy for FF. Malcolm Brown, Gerald Everett, Josh Reynolds were the TD guys here…probably not in your lineup…or on anyone’s roster. -- Great showing by the Rams-DST, but we have to note the Bears are a favorable FF matchup. The Rams-DST has been nice against Dan Jones, Foles, Haskins/Allen. Popped by J. Allen and Jimmy G. Tua this week is favorable, you’d think. Then a Week 9 bye. Weeks 10-13…Wilson, Brady, Jimmy G., Kyler. After Week 8, you need a replacement DST for them. -- The Bears-DST is another unit that is talented but has benefitted from strength of opponent as well…and that schedule is about to shift on them too. Weeks 8-13…Brees-at Tannehill-Cousins (good for turnovers)-BYE-at Rodgers…the next 5 weeks, one confident use? Maybe they are too much for Brees or Tannehill, but I don’t think so. Goff was not bothered by them here. Matt Ryan, Teddy B., Stafford all did OK. You like/respect the Bears-DST, but you got two good spots through Week 14 (Weeks 10/MIN and 13/DET). Snap Counts of Interest: 55 = Everett 46 = Mundt 40 = D Henderson 29 = M Brown 51 = Mooney 50 = A Rob 37 = A Miller 52 = D Montgomery 13 = C Patt

R.C. Fischer

FFM

27 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Bills 18, Jets 10

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

Six field goals for 18 points…that’s Buffalo’s day in a nutshell here. But did you know PK Tyler Bass was 6 of 8 on FG attempts? The Bills were in scoring position 8 times in this game and couldn’t score…but actually they did they just didn’t count. It’s important to know that because the narrative of this game is – the Bills are frauds and Josh Allen/the offense is crashing to earth. It’s not true. We’ll get into that.

The Jets played a hard-nosed game, but they’re undermanned and lost. You see this as ‘Geez, this was too close. I had Buffalo in my survivor pool, and they gave me a scare all game. They couldn’t score on the Jets? The Bills suck.’

Actually, this was a quality win for Buffalo…because they weren’t playing well early on – they were down 10-0 mid-2nd-quarter. They were down 10-6 at the half. They were down 10-9 late into the 3rd-quarter. But after halftime this defense went into lockdown mode. Sam Darnold was like 1 for 11 at one point in the 2nd-half. They stumbled around but gutted up and grabbed this win that weaker-willed Buffalo teams of the past would have lost.

Buffalo is now (5-2) and they are going to go beat the ever-loving ass out of New England and put the Patriots out of their Cam-misery. Bet Buffalo, lay the -3.5 this week…and then they’ll have a let down vs. Seattle the following week. The Bills have been waiting for this Patriots moment since last year. I don’t think Cam knows what he’s gotten himself into this Week 8.

The Bills schedule after the New England game is not kind. There’s trouble for wins and losses. We still see 9-10 wins and a division title, but we go back to square one if they get beat by Belichick this week…an even race to the finish.

The Jets played as good a game as they could’ve. This Week 7 Jets team/effort could win a game or two before it’s over, but this Week 7 Jets team is not anything to rely on/bank on. Week 9 v. NE might be their shock first win of the season. Most likely, they’re going (0-16).

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Josh Allen (30-43 for 307 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT, 11-61-0) had no TD passes against the Jets, GASP (sound of pearls clutching)!!! He must secretly suck like we knew all along. He’s back to his old ways!! I should’ve never traded for him weeks ago. I must punish him for his crimes against FF-humanity!!!

You think it’s bad about Josh Allen in the FF-world? My leading email ask player of the week right now is – how to dump Ezekiel Elliott ASAP. Zeke has been on top of the FF world for years and even produces in games where he fumbles nine times, but he had a bad FF game last week so now he must be punished, he must extradited from your fantasy team before the unthinkable happens…he underproduces expectations two weeks in a row!!!

By and large, people in fantasy…they buy high and sell low. We/FFM just don’t knock on enough doors to expose it most times…and then after a failed attempt or two we say the league ‘doesn’t trade’ and stop trying. We should lead the league in rejected trade offers – not trade concepts floated via email, real offers. People are selling Josh Allen (and Zeke Elliott) whether they admit it or not publicly.

Josh Allen completed 69.8% of his above-average 43 pass attempts in this game. He didn’t throw a pick (but he tried too once or twice). He threw for 300+ yards. He rushed for a season 61 yards. He’s not regressing. The Jets are not the worst pass defense in the NFL, not even top 10 worst by QB rating allowed against them. Everything is fine.

BUT HE DIDN’T EVEN THROW FOR A TOUCHDOWN, therefore he sucks.

Allen got the Bills into scoring position 8 times this game…for six of 8 field goals.

Allen threw a 20+ yard TD pass to Gabriel Davis that got called back for a non-impactful penalty. He then threw another 20+ yard TD pass the very next play to Cole Beasley, but Beasley had stepped/got knocked out of bounds and was ruled to have come back in to make the catch. Later in the game, Allen hit Tyler Kroft on the money for an easy 50+ yards score…but as Kroft was racing down the sidelines to free paydirt, he pulled a Daniel Jones and face planted, untouched, halfway into his score. Another ‘no TD’ event that wasn’t Allen’s fault.

If Kroft had stayed on his feet and if the penalty hadn’t been called on the G. Davis TD, Allen would have had 350+ yards passing, 2 TDs, one of them 50+ yards, and he had 61 yards rushing (and 1-2-3 shots at a rushing TD) in this game. What more do you want for FF?

Coming into the game, Allen was 2nd in the league in passing TDs.

What else does he have to do?

I know people…THEY (non-FFMers) listen to analysts, and the analysts are turning on Allen because he’s not winning games and they have been conditioned to not like him as a QB prior. Therefore, THEY are turning on Allen. He’s a fringe QB1 at-best for them…a hot potato they need to get rid before the unthinkable happens…they didn’t sell him off at the peak of his powers back when everyone loved him. The shame and humiliation of Allen being great before and now terrible, it’s too much to bear so they will trade him away no matter what they tell you on how much they love him – they will make the trade if you give them the opportunity.

If you don’t want to believe in Allen it’s OK, but if you think Allen is fading – you’re wrong.

 -- I was excited to re-watch this to see the debut of Denzel Mims (4-42-0/7), and…well…not that exciting. But neither was Justin Jefferson’s first 2-3 games. Rookie WRs need a few weeks to get comfortable, especially ones who barely played in training camp due to injury.

We need more time to evaluate Mims, but my first glance – nothing exciting. I didn’t see a reason to write lots of words about the debut. Sam Darnold is a noodle arm and threw some passes clean to Mims and he caught them and got tackled quickly.

Mims did get an end zone shot to enact his specialty of high pointing passes, but Darnold not knowing what I know, somehow, threw a flat pass instead of a looping jump ball and Tre’Davious White ate Mims up for an incompletion.

First viewing of Mims…nothing good/bad to report. Need more time.

 -- Who is not good (for FF)…Devin Singletary (8-29-0, 2-18-0/5). He’s got Zack Moss (7-47-0, 3-25-0/3) up his rear now, he’s got a terrible run blocking O-Line, and Josh Allen takes rushing TD chances and doesn’t throw a ton to RBs consistently.

I’m throwing in the towel…whatever that means. He’s an RB3-3.5 who gets decent touches. Latavius Murray gets as good of touches as Singletary in a game (Kamara steals from Latavius, Allen/Moss steal from Devin), and that’s just the first thought RB off the top of my head to compare Singletary for FF right now.

Singletary is talented. Promising results from his rookie season (especially when you consider how his rookie numbers might compare to top rookie picks from this class) but no follow through as Buffalo went smart for the NFL with an RB-duo…but then their O-Line weakened at the same time. I see nothing to get me excited about Singletary for FF short of a Moss injury and gone/out.

 -- The Bills’ WR report…

Cole Beasley (11-112-0/12) had a great game because Diggs was double covered a lot and John Brown was out.

When John Brown returns, it further opens this offense for Josh Allen…and Brown will benefit by being the #2 WR for a high functioning passing game.

Gabriel Davis (1-11-0/3) didn’t seize any control of an opportunity to burn Jets CBs. He’s solid but not amazing/going to take over as a starter on purpose anytime soon.

Stefon Diggs (6-48-0/11) mediocre FF game. Gets punished for being with Josh Allen, and the Allen fade, so I’m buying Diggs with two-fists. Diggs-Allen is going to Adams-Rodgers-lite or like. Diggs is a top 5 PPR WR YTD but gets treated like a WR1.5 in the trade market. I will buy it all.

If my 6pts per pass TD/PPR league team was scuffling with like a (2-5) record and was rocking a flimsy QB…I’d try to buy Allen-Diggs and shove all my chips in on them as the most undervalued duo in fantasy.

 -- Lamical Perine (11-39-1, 2-16-0/3) looked OK in this game. He ended up playing 40-15 snaps over Frank Gore, so it’s time to take this a little bit more seriously than I have. Still, I’m not really all that interested. I know this is a bad offense/bad O-Line. I don’t want to invest in the mediocre RB from it…but he can have a James Robinson or Myles Gaskin ‘getting touches’ appeal.

Ty Johnson looked so good and promising last week, which means the Jets couldn’t find one carry for him this week. Makes sense…it’s the Jets…it’s the NFL.

Snap Counts of Interest:

54 = Perriman

48 = Berrios

45 = Mims

12 = Jeff Smith

40 = Perine

16 = Gore

72 = Diggs

70 = Gab Davis

61 = Beasley

40 = Singletary

35 = Moss

R.C. Fischer

FFM

27 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Steelers 27, Titans 24

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

I know just about all anyone cares about from this game is Chase Claypool v. Diontae Johnson analysis…we’ll get to that first thing in the player section.

As far as this game overview goes…it’s weird. The Steelers got up 27-7 with 10 minutes left in the 3rd-quarter and were dominating. I kinda stopped watching the game during the seven-at-a-time viewing of the early games because I thought it was over. Slowly but surely Tennessee started creeping back into the game and shutting down the Steelers offense…and at the end, Tennessee was lining up for a game tying FG to go to overtime at the buzzer, and Stephen Gostkowski pulled it left…and...ball game.

The Steelers were dominant for 35 minutes, and then the Titans controlled things/stormed back the final 25 minutes. Really, the Steelers won the details of the game…72.2% on 3rd-downs and 37/23 minute time of possession hold. It visually felt like the Steelers were the better team, to me.

The Steelers are now (6-0)…and it hasn’t been a picturesque (6-0)…but undefeated nonetheless. They head to a road game showdown with the Ravens this week…and the Steelers will either fall to 2nd-place with a loss or open up a two-game lead with a win and really have some control of the AFC North and a shot at a #1 seed. The Steelers are headed for 11-12 wins, maybe more…but that could be a divisional winner or a #1 wild card.

The Titans fall from the unbeatens (5-1) but still have the lead in the AFC South, and with a favorable schedule ahead the Titans should win 10-11 games and take the division – they’re just better than Colts all-around, in my opinion, unless Gostkowski ruins them like Vinatieri did the Colts last year.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- It was so nice that the Chase Claypool (1-0-0/1) hype train hit into the side of a mountain, full speed, in Week 7. After 5 TDs his prior two weeks, which was nearly 7-8 TDs in that span…Claypool got one official target here. Thank you for your service, Chase…

Diontae Johnson (9-80-2/15) returns from his constant little injuries, forcing him to leave games early, and you would think that would be held against him or throttled back or time to re-integrate – but he doesn’t miss a beat and is the star of the game…all while I guided everyone to not have to push him into lineups, so as to see what we were dealing with in this new Steelers WR configuration.  

Diontae has cost my season in some places, or just made it harder than it needed to be, by helping hand me three losses -- two times, in back-to-back weeks, he left the game one touch in with an injury and never returned…forcing my FF teams to play a man down right off the jump. Jeff Wilson gets hurt scoring his 3rd TD of a game…because I don’t own Jeff Wilson. The guys I own all get injured one play in, leave me with a zero or negative score, and screw my FF-team for the week. This week, Diontae found a new way to screw me…having been burned by him for weeks, I decided to ‘wait and see’ how he’d integrate back in – so, he was often on my bench scoring an S-load of points while my starting Claypool thus took his zero to have me playing, essentially, a man down again due to a Steelers star WR.

Diontae and Claypool have been two of my best stories of 2020, when you stop and consider. Two elite talents/mega fantasy producers in games. Two guys we took middle/late in redrafts, Best Ball, stole in Dynasty drafts as bargains the past two years – two sensational football scouting wizardry, and yet…they have cost me more fantasy wins than any player I’ve had in 2020.

I hate myself in fantasy for what they’ve done. I can’t even enjoy the real story – that we out-scouted the whole of fantasy with them, and outsmarted the NFL (on Claypool) with these tremendous bargain players who are future elites. I should be celebrating this, instead I want to strangle them and I’m getting all kinds of emails from people who lost the same way who are thinking I’m a fantasy idiot and questioning why they subscribed this year. I did my scouting job at an elite level, like no one else…and all it has done is cost me trust with my clients and myself, by helping force losses I shouldn’t have taken.

Arguably my two greatest calls of 2020 are causing people to think I’m an idiot and questioning my football knowledge. You think your fantasy season has been difficult…

Welcome to Fantasy Football 2020.

What’s worse is the question you have for me this week – what do we do with Claypool now?

I don’t know.

What I do know is whatever I thought I knew about what to do with either of these guys in a given week is going to wind up to be the wrong thing. So, I’m going to give you my thought process on ‘what now’, but feel free to do the exact opposite…because if there is any fantasy trend that works in the Diontae/Claypool ecosystem – it’s that whatever reasonable, expert opinion I have…the opposite will be true in that upcoming week’s fantasy results.

My take on Diontae/Claypool/the Steelers’ WRs:

I wondered, after this game, if Claypool just didn’t play but like half the game and was treated as a backup…and that ‘benching’ forced this weak week. But…

Steeler WR snap counts:

65 = JuJu

59 = Diontae

51 = Claypool

18 = J Washington

As I suspected going into this week – James Washington was the odd man out. He has to be. Claypool is too good to sit.

So, Claypool is now a real starter. That’s a great sign, puts my mind at ease. But why only 1 target?

Well, Claypool did have two other targets and a jet sweep…all negated by penalty. Not that having 3-4 touches in a game is amazing, but it’s not ‘one’.

From my vantage point watching this tape – Ben was really locked in on Diontae like Aaron Rodgers is with Davante Adams. Further helping the Ben-Diontae show here was the Titans playing back, almost in a zone and Ben playing easy pitch and catch with Diontae underneath wide-wide-wide open…which we love to see, for Diontae!!!

Diontae was working. JuJu was getting left alone/lesser coverages. Claypool got more attention. It was the right thing to do, mostly, for Ben. The first TD of this game (called back for penalty) was from the 1-yard line, Claypool came around for that insta-TD jet sweep, but they faked it and went the other way with James Conner. 3-4 defenders were rolling to Claypool in motion, others were stopped in their tracks…by the time they realized Conner was going the other way for an easy TD pass it was too late to get near him. Claypool is getting that attention now…good for him/the Steelers, bad for FF when he’s a decoy.

Claypool is a starter for Pittsburgh…and that’s a good thing. There’s now a fear they just use him as a bit player all season now after what he just did the prior few weeks. Before Tyler Lockett caught 15 passes for 200 yards on 20 targets on SNF…he averaged 3.0 rec., 41.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game the two games prior…and people we’re giving up on him fearing D.K. Metcalf was stealing all the gold. Let’s not let one game result define the future when there’s cause to believe otherwise. It’s not like we’ve not seen Claypool playing like a star.

Two WRs can co-exist for FF from the same team. And JuJu is the least talented member of their trio and was discussed as droppable by some before he had a good FF game here.

Also, if you own Diontae and Claypool, or just Diontae…and if you had Diontae on the bench this week…you should be rejoicing. Diontae is now more confirmed elite than most FF WRs. In the three games Diontae played start to finish this season, he’s averaging:

7.7 rec. (12.7 targets), 76.3 yards, 1.0 TDs per game.

You know what that is in fantasy PPR terms? 21.0 FF PPG. You know where that would rank in 2020 among all WRs in PPR PPG? #3 overall.

#1 Davante Adams

#2 Tyler Lockett (after his Week 7/SNF)

#3 Diontae in his three full games.

I told you that he was the new A.B. last year, and wrote about it again weeks ago. And then you acquired or confidently started him because of me…just in time for his injury zeros and hated me for it. Now he just scored 29 PPR points in a game, and I advised to bench him with other options, and now I’m hated for that.

You have the next elite PPR WR in fantasy…and all I am getting/feeling is angst about it.

Welcome to Fantasy Football 2020.

I am ‘buying’ Chase Claypool stock in fantasy, and especially in Dynasty, today…where I find weak holders. Nothing is worse than getting a zero in fantasy…it negates+ the 4 TD week from two weeks prior (likely on their bench too). Last week, people were wanting to trade Diontae because he was injury prone and couldn’t exist/thrive with Claypool as a new star. This week, Diontae is a star and Claypool might have just been lucky. That’s how fast people’s football mindset changes…which leads to rash, emotional deals.

When a fantasy player doesn’t perform – they must be punished by their owners. I know this after a decade dealing with every walk of life in FF. Great performances are ‘luck’ and bad performances must be dealt with immediately, usually with sweeping statements how two WRs can’t coexist, and Claypool won’t be Ben’s guy with Diontae there…and JuJu is back in Ben’s graces, so it’s even worse. Do we not remember Weeks 4-5-6 when Diontae was out? Ben going to Claypool like a star/like his #1…JuJu was still there and was a ghost in Claypool’s wake. A one-week shift/event changes all of that now?

I know football greatness when I see it…and Claypool has it, so I’m buying…seeking those FF owners ready to punish Claypool for his high crimes of putting up a zero last week (doubly punished if Diontae was on the bench with it too). I want to trade with the Claypool owner who thinks CC was a flash in the pan and Week 7 is the new reality going forward.

I’m also not overpaying for it. I know people are mad and panicked, so I’m slyly going to come in the back door and rob them.

 -- Jonnu Smith (19-0/4) had a down game, so he must be punished by FF owners too. A down game and burning owners the week prior leaving early with an injury. This cannot stand. Heads will roll.

I’ll buy your downtrodden Jonnu stock. I’m not paying a lot, but I know this…his current owner is steaming, and I want to take advantage of it.

I have a slight fear that A.J. Brown being back changes the flow a bit away from Jonnu, but Smith got 1-2 end zone shots this game. Just didn’t connect. Jonnu doesn’t look 100% either. Two down weeks, but after Week 5 he was the #3 fantasy TE in PPG. That ain’t nuthin’?

Where I’m TE desperate, I’ll look into seeing if I can get a cheap deal. You can have my Harrison Bryant or Michael Thomas last second pickup to be your TE.

 -- All these ‘toys’ for Ben (32-49 for 268 yards, 2 TDs/3 INTs) and he hasn’t thrown for 270+ yards in a game but once this season. He has thrown for 2.1 TDs per game this year though, likely headed to a career high passing TD count neat/at/above 40 TDs – like about a half-a-dozen+ QBs are going to do this season.

 -- Ryan Tannehill (18-30 for 220 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) continues to not disappoint.

He’s not sexy but he is the #9 QB in FF PPG (4pts per pass TD), a slight tick behind Aaron Rodgers. If Tannehill had one more 10-yard run, he’d be 7th among QBs in FF PPG right now.

 -- Robert Spillane (3 tackles) did a nice job filling in for Devin Bush. However, he got hurt in this game…hurt on maybe the best hit of the 2020 season. On a goal-line play, the Titans (of course) ran up the middle with Derrick Henry. The O-Line parted the red sea and DH had a clear path to the end zone with Spillane staring him down in his way. Spillane took off like a bat out of hell/Bobby Boucher and met Henry both going full speed and he dropped Henry like a sack of potatoes. It looked cool, but Spillane about knocked himself out, got hurt, and left the game.

Spillane is going to be IDP good this year as a new starting ILB. I hope he’s physically OK for Week 8.

 -- The Steelers-DST is showing some cracks. They squashed Cleveland Week 6 but in-between that Tannehill-Wentz pushed scoring/numbers on them. I don’t know how great a play they are for Week 8 at Baltimore, but they’ve been good enough so far in 2020 to roll the dice with them and see.

Their schedule the rest of the year is pretty favorable. You can pretty much run them the rest of the season and have hope in a year of hopeless DSTs.

 -- The Titans-DST is an interesting case…

Top 12 in PPG allowed in the NFL, middle of the pack in yards, top 5 in turnovers, bottom 5 in sacks. Gave up a lot to the Steelers right away, but then shut them off and allowed a comeback to occur (nearly). They gave up a lot to Houston Week 6, but held high-flying Buffalo to a season low 16 points. Prior to that they allowed 30 and 30 to lowly Jacksonville and Minnesota…the results are all over the place with them, but I can say this: They have talent, they’ve missed some guys due to injury. When Adoree Jackson returns it’s a boost.

If you can accept that the Titans DST is ‘not bad’, then the schedule ahead isn’t the worst thing in the world…in an era of ‘lacking’ DSTs and people hoarding DSTs:

Week 8 = at CIN (YES, bad O-Line)

Week 9 = v. CHI (YES)

Week 10 = v. IND (YES)

Week 11 = at BAL (NO)

Week 12 = at IND (YES)

Week 13 = CLE (YES)

Week 14 = at JAX (YES)

Week 15 = DET (YES)

Last season, the Titans-DST was #8 in fantasy (Weeks 1-16). They have the same/better unit back this year. They play efficient football to hold time of possession to help their defense. Among the unclaimed DSTs in leagues…the Titans might be a trash that turns to a mild treasure. Maybe.

Snap Counts of Interest:

65 = JuJu

59 = Diontae

51 = Claypool

18 = J Washington

R.C. Fischer

FFM

26 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Eagles, 22, Giants 21

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

It looked like, for a moment, the NY football Giants would be in 1st-place (tied) after Week 7 with a big win over the Eagles…it was minutes away, but then it was gone. The Eagles scored on their final drive with seconds remaining and it was Philly that took a commanding lead in the NFC East.

All I kept thinking Thursday night watching these two turds play each other – man, I liked Thursday Night’s prior week game so much better (there was none).

The Eagles win to go to (2-4-1) and if they beat Dallas next week…they will almost put away the division, in a sense. If Dallas wins that Week 8 battle -- then the much-maligned Cowboys will take the NFC East upper hand.

If the Eagles win Week 8…we still only see them finishing with 6 wins, but 6-9-1 would likely win this division.

A loss to Dallas Week 8, with such a tough schedule ahead for Philly (@CLE-SEA-@GB-NO-@ARI-@DAL Weeks 11-16)…the Eagles might all be but finished for the NFC East. But the division is so awful, you can’t count anyone out. If Washington beats Dallas this week…all hell will break loose in a three-team race all the sudden. Three bad teams…and the Giants still, technically, in it.

The Giants have fallen way behind now. They could’ve had some real long-shot hope to win the NFC East, but this loss really pierced that bubble. Losing here, knowing Daniel Jones is not ‘it’, and no Saquon Barkley in 2020…the Giants are ‘folding’. They traded DE Markus Golden to Arizona Friday, to send the signal that they realize they have little chance to compete, even in this mess of an NFC East.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I’m dead serious here… Carson Wentz (25-43 for 359 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 7-14-1) should be in the league MVP discussion.

He’s not playing very good football, but you shouldn’t lay it at his feet -- consider he has had no offensive line all year…they’ve lost virtually every OL starter from the jump. They’ve lost all their starting WRs and TEs in-season…and now they’re missing their starting RB for a week or two. Wentz has had nothing to work with and he’s getting crap kicked out of him in the numbers of hits he’s taking – but he’s giving his body over to the game taking a league leading amount of hits (including his increased running), winning this game and near wins vs. BAL and PIT the prior two weeks – doing it with Travis Fulgham and Richard Rodgers. To that end, Doug Pederson is in the Coach of the Year discussion…not ‘to be fired’ mocking.

I’m not a Wentz guy, but he’s giving every ounce of everything he has to try and win games for the Eagles. You have to give him a lot of credit.

He’s also becoming a top QB1 FF play by attrition because he is the offense…he’s rushing for a TD almost every game, and now starting to toss 2 TDs a game the past three weeks. He’s likely to have worked his way to the top 10-12 QBs in PPG for the entire season once this week closes. Considering how bad it started – that’s a credit to him, and it pushes the Jalen Hurts takeover story almost off the table for 2020 (unless injury hits…which the way Wentz is taking hits, might happen sooner than we think).

 -- Daniel Jones (20-30 for 187 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 4-92-0)…not an MVP performance. He’s getting painful to watch play QB. He’s functionally illiterate playing the position.

My guess is NYG plays out the season with Jones starting all the way to give the world a whole year to see how bad he is and then they’ll be able draft a new QB in 2021.

May I remind the class…this was the #6 pick in the NFL Draft.

The next pick after Jones…Jacksonville promising edge pass rusher Josh Allen.

After Jones was taken #6, three more QBs went top 100 overall. Dwayne Haskins (#15), Drew Lock (#42), Will Grier (#100). Jones-Haskins-Lock-Grier…four mega-busts. And I defy you to find ANY football scout or analysts alive who called these four QBs scouting, pre-Draft, better than I did at College Football Metrics?

 -- Boston Scott (12-46-0, 3-46-1/5) saved a fantasy disaster (of his scoring) with an alley-oop throw off a poorly executed wheel route turned stunning, game winning TD catch for Scott.

With this O-Line and all the WR/TE issues, Scott had nowhere to run…neither does Miles Sanders. It’s too much to ask/to overcome.

Jason Huntley (2-13-0, 0-0-0/1) is not an answer either…if he were forced in as a starter, he’d be stuffed like the others guys. This is as much an O-Line downer story as it is anything else.

I’d sell Scott to the Sanders’ owner this week if you could pull off a sweet trade. I’d sell Sanders hot if he is cleared for return Week 8 (but I think it will be 50/50 all week).

 -- Wayne Gallman (10-34-1, 5-20-0/5) might be the better FF play than any RB on either of these two teams. Devonta Freeman (3-8-0, 0-0-0/1) got hurt and Gallman filled in and provided a spark in this game – and we’ve seen glimpses of that for weeks.

I’m not saying Gallman is a future star, but I have been hinting for weeks that he could end up mattering/stealing this job. I gave up on it last week, and then, of course, now he might be their new starter.

I like the heart and passion and elusiveness Gallman runs with despite limited athleticism. He’s a very good receiver as well. We’ll evaluate his value in waivers Monday-Tuesday this week.

 -- Evan Engram (6-46-0/9) had a chance to really get his FF numbers back on track, or at least give a good+ week…but he dropped that critical 30+ yard bomb right into his hands on the run and he gaffed it.

Because Engram dropped two passes on a solo night game, he’s going to get labeled a ‘drops’ guy. Not that he doesn’t deserve it. He’s one of the league leaders in dropped passes % this season, but it’s going to be magnified with this game…that bad drop at a crucial time.

The negativity is so bad, it might do two things this week:

1) His fantasy owners might give him away/drop him if they find any viable alternative. In Dynasty, if you wanted to sit on him and see what happens ahead (2020-21+)…he’s a throw in to deals now. He’s damaged his rep big-time.

2) There’s a chance he’ll be traded after another loss next week. Teams were already inquiring, now this game will be used to drop the price. I think the market is NOW if NYG is going to do it – trade him before Minnesota pushes Kyler Rudolph into the market (but he already is out in it) and before Zach Ertz returns from injury to get traded.

I think Buffalo and New England have to have an interest in TE upgrades for the stretch run. The Rams should trade for Engram and put him in Gerald Everett’s role, to amp of the weapons for LAR.

Engram would be OK in New England. He's a bad fit with Josh Allen, but not terrible…Allen throws rockets and Engram does not have soft hands. My nickel bet is Engram to San Francisco.

 -- Sterling Shepard (6-59-1/8) returned…and you can’t deny he’s Jones’s ‘guy’. Two full games played by SS this season (Weeks 1 and 7), his averages per game in his two games in 2020: 6.0 rec. (7.0 targets), 51.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game). He’s going to be a nice WR2.5 with Jones. Which is a continuation of what he did last season with Jones.

 -- Shepard is no Travis Fulgham (5-73-0/11)…the guy has become a literal star for Philly, a go-to WR. He’s a solid talent, not a future star…but he’s been so reliable it’s stunning this guy couldn’t get the time of day in the NFL for the past two years.

Just when you think DJax-Jeffrey-Ertz-Goedert are going to crowd him out…DJax is done, Jeffrey will likely never play another snap for Philly, Ertz either, and Goedert is a week/weeks away.

The Eagles are going to acquire WRs this next week in the trade market, and that’s Fulgham’s new threat…but Fulgham has already established himself with Wentz. He can be a real WR2 the rest of the way.

Who might the Eagles acquire?

Dante Pettis, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jamison Crowder, Keelan Cole, Will Fuller, A.J. Green, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, are a couple names to watch for.

 -- Because the Eagles have no other options, Richard Rodgers (6-85-0/8) has his best game since 2015. Hey, right now…any TE port in this fantasy TE storm. He looked really slimmed down and mobile. He used to be a brick with legs.

Rodgers i0s a bridge to Goedert if you’re waiting for Goedert to ride in on a white horse and save your TE issues.

 -- At a critical juncture of this game, a 4th & goal play…the Eagles went to their other TE. Converted WR they picked up off a practice squad weeks ago…Hakeem Butler (0-0-0/1). Such a critical spot/play and the Eagles draw up a play to isolate Butler, who joined the team a few weeks ago, hasn’t ever seen an NFL target – that’s the guy they throw an off-kilter alley oop to in a HUGE spot in the game? I appreciate their attempt at Butler usage, but maybe that wasn’t the best spot for his first NFL target in two seasons?

 -- These two DSTs both held their opponents to reasonable (in 2020) points allowed. They also each got 3 sacks and 1 INT in the game.

The NFC East DSTs are of interest because they play each other a lot the next few weeks.

NYG has incompetent Daniel Jones and no run game, and Jason Garrett as O-C.

PHI has no O-Line and all WRs/TEs hurt right now.

DAL has Andy Dalton and no O-Line and Fumbles Magee Zeke Elliott, and empty headset Mike McCarthy.

WAS has Kyle Allen, no O-Line, and a college WR as lead RB.

What DSTs face these four NFC East teams or the Jets and Broncos the most the rest of the season?

Seattle = gets one of them for four consecutive weeks…Weeks 12-13-14-15.

A bunch of teams, including the NFC East teams, have three matchups with this group the rest of the way.

How about the next 4 weeks, who has matchups with them the most?

LAC, NYG and PHI = two each

Snap Counts of Interest:

56 = B Scott

18 = Clement

08 = Huntley

05 = Hurts

69 = R Rodgers

09 = Croom

50 = Engram

36 = Kaden Smith

Kardelen Duyan

FFM

24 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Dolphins 24, Jets 0

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

I thought this would be the most uninteresting game report of the week. Miami shutout the Jets…not a shock. Hard to even report out on the players from the game because the backdrop of playing against the Jets warps opinions, trends, etc. However, in the final two minutes of this game…Miami trotted out Tua Tagovailoa, and that seemed meaningless at the time – until they announced him as the new starter a day later. That’s big, FF-changing news for sure. We’ll get to that.

As far as this game goes – easy win for Miami, as expected. They jumped out to a quick 21-0 lead and then kinda scuffled from there to a 24-0 victory heading to their bye week. Miami gets to (3-3) and is staring down a chance to make the playoffs. However, the move to Tua…no one knows the impact. We haven’t seen him but for two late game throws in this contest. He’s coming off a MAJOR hip injury/surgery. He hasn’t been with the first team much, you’d think. Training camp reports on him were mixed. We don’t know how this is going to go.

I’m assuming the Tua switch is going to go poorly, at first, but I’m open to the fact that the NFL play/plays are easier than college for most of the top QB prospects now…but I’m suspect on whether Tua is a top QB prospect. Miami having won two in-a-row, if they lose their first game with Tua, and it’s an ugly – there will be a fan revolt. He’s being put in a terrible situation to bring perfection right away. I hope he can, he’s a great kid…but I’d bet against it happening quickly (if at all).

Why change now? They could’ve been bringing in Tua for snaps for weeks -- just to get him ready if they were itching for a change. This absolutely smells like a rash ownership decision. Even the Bears waited for Mitch Trubisky to be ‘bad’ in a game to make the switch to Nick Foles. Miami just won two in a row scoring 33.5 points per game -- and after all that they decided to make a switch…why? Head coaches don’t mess with success like this. This has to be a decision from above…which means it’s going to bite them. When they try to switch back to Fitz, it will be weird…and could damage the Tua mystique/confidence. Too late now.

On the Tua switch, we project Miami will not make the playoffs and will go (5-11/6-10). With Fitz all the way, we projected (8-8) with a possible (9-7). I’m willing to see Tua in action to change my mind.

The Jets? They will go (0-16). They will NOT fire Adam Gase. They will pick #1 and draft Trevor Lawrence (who will not want to go there) and then they’ll trade Sam Darnold before the draft some time. Potentially Darnold to the Browns, as they trade Baker to New England.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- How will the offense change with Tua (2-2 for 9 yards, 0 TD/0 INT)? No clue.

We don’t know who he likes to throw to/who he has an on-field chemistry with. I’m hoping it’s Preston Williams (2-18-0/1), but the real answer may take weeks to figure out.

The Tua at Alabama version isn’t an easy/obvious translation to the NFL. Alabama had a dominant run game, O-Line, and WR group compared to their opponents. The Miami Dolphins offense has none of that going for them. Myles Gaskin (18-91-0, 4-35-0/4) will be the worst RB that Tua has ever played with…and Gaskin being so nothing allows defenses to sit back on Tua and play him to pass, so an even tougher road to hoe.

I’d like to tell you what all will happen ahead, but I haven’t seen Tua in NFL action but on two throws against the Jets in a prevent defense. My gut says the Tua debut prediction: https://youtu.be/lSPNQ82Sq4E

 -- You know who looks really good, spry, and nicely targeted at WR? Breshad Perriman (4-62-0/8). You know…the Jets’ #1 WR?

Flacco was going after it with him, but it’s Joe Flacco…he missed an open Perriman on two 30+ yards throws, one an easy TD. I don’t know how high Perriman can go with Sam Darnold but considering they will be down a lot and throwing…Perriman might be a super-solid WR2-3 on volume ahead.

Perriman was dominant with Tampa Bay late last year, which got him a big deal with NYJ…he’s just now getting fully healthy. He looks really good/healthy/quick. He is looking and moving like a ‘#1’ for them…but the ‘them’ is a drag on his upside.

 -- Speaking of spry WRs… I was watching Preston Williams (2-18-1/2) on some isolated tape…just to watch his feet again, to see if he’s ready if Tua is good for his business. But also knowing that PW is off ACL surgery, so I was re-checking that his so-so 2020 isn’t because he’s lost some ‘it’.

I still see the nice cutting ability and good speed on tape. It may not be as amazing as it was last year, but it’s still pretty good or pretty close to what I expect to see. He’s ready for Tua, but I don’t know if Tua is ready to push it to PW. Preston might be more athletically gifted, but not becoming more of a technician to go with it. Athletes like, better than Preston are flooding into the NFL. In 2019, he was a bit rare…in 2020…he’s another good prospect in a suspect offense.

There’s hope, and fear with a move to Tua for Preston.

 -- Mike Gesicki (0-0-0/2) might not miss Ryan Fitz. You never know what the Gesicki output was going to be under Fitz. His last 4 games, Gesicki has: 1-1-5-0 for catch counts in a game.

At the same time, Adam Shaheen (3-51-1/3) is suddenly making waves. He scored a TD in this game, and almost had a 40+ yard score added but he was tackled a yard short. He’s still playing 20-30% of the snaps, not a feature role at all.

Miami is rotating Gesicki, Durham Smythe, and now Shaheen all game…and Shaheen is getting more and more time in the red zone because of his size. I’m not sure who Tua would prefer, he’s had more time with Shaheen in practice/camp probably.

 -- The best-looking RB on the Jets roster…looks like newly signed Ty Johnson (3-42-0, 0-0-0/1) to me and it isn’t even debatable.

He entered this game midway and brought a spark not seen in two years for NYJ. He hit an 8-yard run on his inaugural carry, then blasted off with a 34 yarder the next carry. Of course, that was too much success for the Jets to handle so he was immediately brought to the sidelines and not seen touching the ball for a while.

Doesn’t Ty know the plan is to go (0-16)? We can’t be having successful plays, come on man.

If the Jets really are interested in playing and player development…we’re going to see more Ty Johnson ahead. A nice deep sleeper to sit on in deep roster FF leagues. The risk being the Jets are idiots…just ask Josh Adams.

 -- Miami-DST pitching a shutout…been planning for this hope/matchup for weeks. Many of you were able to get in on it. I gotta admit…it felt good to watch a plan come to fruition. But now what?

Well, you will not confidently use the Miami-DST again until Weeks 11-12-13 for at DEN, at NYJ, CIN.

It’s a good pairing with KC, so maybe you think about holding them until then. If you have to, you could drop Miami in a regular 10-12 team league with regular roster sizes and try and re-pick back up again next week or two…maybe.

People are hoarding DSTs, so be careful. And Miami has a really good defense…that’s why I loved this hold/play. They may be OK Week 8 v. LAR. They might be OK Week 9 at ARI. Maybe OK v. LAC’s rough O-Line Week 10, but I don’t wanna face Herbert.

Just know that Miami has a really good defense. Tua may actually help it because he won’t be so radical bombing all the time and with the subsequent turnovers. Perhaps, Tua helps this DST with ball control, time of possession. Maybe.

Snap Counts of Interest:

39 = Gaskin

16 = Breida

06 = Laird

05 = Bowden

63 = Perriman

63 = Crowder

60 = J Smith