R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Steelers 23, Bills 16

 

At the end of the day, all I can say is – this was a defensive slog. Plain and simple.

I thought the Steelers would be down on defense this year with them turning over two starting CBs and Bud Dupree, but they didn’t miss a beat…and might be better than last year’s very good defense (but the schedule is still a problem, as we’ll get into). I thought Josh Allen would overcome the 2021 Steelers D with ease…and that was not true either. I expected the Steelers offense to struggle with the Buffalo defense, and they did…that was part of this slog of a game, but the Bills offense was also flustered and it led to this low scoring affair – and one TD/score  for PIT came off a blocked punt. It was an offensive dud for both sides, really.

The Bills held the Steelers to only 252 total yards and just 33% 3rd-down conversions and Ben barely got over 50%+ completions -- holding the Steelers down like that should’ve produced a Bills win…but Buffalo constantly shot themselves in the foot with bad penalties (lot’s of holding…due to the PIT pass rush), some dropped passes, some poor play calls on 4th-down (Buffalo went 1 for 3 in 4th-down conversions here…last year they converted 80% of their 4th-downs).

The Bills were the better team overall, but not by a wide margin…and this just got away from them. The Bills looked like a good team, but not a Super Bowl team.

The Steelers look like a wild card team no one wants to play because they have a defense to go with savvy Ben to cause trouble, but they are so sloppy on offense at times…it can’t be a consistent winning team/Super Bowl threat. But this Steelers team is better than I thought because the defense is much better than I thought.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- My top priority here was to make sure we didn’t have any Josh Allen (31-51 for 270 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 9-44-0) problems here, and I’m pleased to say this wasn’t a Josh Allen problem loss.

However, I will say Allen didn’t look as sharp as his best runs last season. The Steelers played to contain Allen/the long passing game and just rushed 3-4 guys…and it worked. Allen was reduced to dinking and dunking a bunch. I think the issue was more – this is a really good Steelers defense again. I projected it wrong.

The Steelers had a great plan and has nice defensive talent (that Joe Schobert trade was brilliant), and they just executed better than Buffalo. There were a few near miss moments that could’ve seen Buffalo jump out bigger and change the course of this game, but the Bills just didn’t hit the big plays available and flopped on several 3rd & 4th-downs. Eventually, they ran out of time. Allen was solid but not his best…but not a real worry either.

Allen has at MIA then vs. WSH…this might be an underwhelming start for Allen to FF 2021. If you get past Week 3 with him, then it’s much smoother sailing ahead.

 

 -- My other priority in this tape study was to see how Najee Harris (16-45-0, 1-4-0/3) looked. From the live watch, I thought he looked pretty bad. A lot of low yardage runs, too many caught in the backfield moments, and he looked like a giraffe on roller skates on two of his 3 targets. We were supposed to see smooth passing game weapon Najee, but he looks incredibly unsmooth in the passing game so far…going back to the preseason.

The one thing Najee started to show here is – he’s a good enough straight-ahead runner. Najee trying to kick interior runs outside is death. Najee going out for passes has looked foolish. But Najee getting a handoff straight up the middle looks really good. This is the first pro work where I saw Najee running the interior with confidence/authority. It took him about a half to get his sea legs, and then he started to make a bit of a difference pounding the ball on-and-off.

Hosting LV and CIN the next two weeks could get him a breakout performance (stat tally wise). He just has to stay straight and not try to do things involving sharp agility, because he has little/none.

 

 -- Zack Moss (DNP) was a healthy scratch, further confirming this backfield is all Devin Singletary’s (11-72-0, 3-8-0/5) now. But the Bills love to pass and only run occasionally to keep defenses honest. Allen took several purposeful runs and usually does. Unfortunately for Singletary, and his FF owners, this type of game/stat line is about as good as it gets for the Bills lead back.

 

 -- The Steelers receivers…

Diontae Johnson ((5-36-1/10) gave you all his classic hits here. In this game, you got:

*Mishandles easy passes and makes you wonder if he’s got that hands issue again.

*Then makes a ‘wow’ catch and brings you back to him.

*Got hit on a crossing route and laid on the field for a bit, writhing in pain until he limped off, and you’re thinking he’s a puss…but then a series later he’s back out there and you thank the Lord your God for it.

*Looks sometimes shaky all game, but then leads the team in targets and catches, and lands a TD.

 

Chase Claypool (3-45-0/5, 1-25-0) is so clearly the best WR on the team…one of, if not thee most talented WR in the league – and yet they still treat him like a side salad and not the featured entrée. But I have a funny feeling Ben is going to keep shifting Claypool, and it will come out of Diontae’s account…and make us turn on Diontae for FF. Just a hunch.

Claypool is such a majestic stallion of a WR…he’s going to be a star; I just don’t know when he crosses into that threshold. But I know it’s going to happen. He’s way too good to be a side piece.

 

Let me make a pitch here: Claypool was hot early 2020, right out of the gates, but then was benched by Tomlin 2nd-half (to avoid a rookie wall for some stupid reason) and he FF-fizzled to the finish. He was a mid-round redraft WR valuation this year…people had hope but weren’t craving it in the summer of 2021…they didn’t have to pay too heavy a price for it in redraft. Now, he has an opening week ‘meh’ FF result…mostly due to Buffalo’s defense, but somewhat that Diontae is still the #1 look for Ben.

Claypool is flying a little under the radar. He is ‘gettable’ in most cases – in Dynasty or redraft. You should try and land him before people get excited again (for those who don’t already own him). There are a lot of cute WRs of the moment…Mike Williams, Antonio Brown, etc. There are all the hype guys like Lamb-Jeudy, Godwin, DJ Moore – that aren’t near as talented but have better ‘pub’/standing in the FF community. All I know is – there will be a day when Chase Claypool is discussed as the single best WR in FF. He’s the better Julio Jones. He’s built like a god among men and is a really good WR…still learning his craft. His leaping catch in this game…and his simple 25-yard jet sweep was just a glimpse at his greatness.

Someday soon, Ben or Tomlin are going to shift away from heavy Diontae and move it onto Claypool as the nuclear bomb weapon that leads the way – you can acquire that dirty bomb for a fraction of what it will cost soon…and it will be off the market. There’s a window right here, right now…but I can’t promise you the bomb goes off (in a good way) next week or Week 4-5…it’s going to be good until it goes great then nuclear.

There may be no better ‘buy low’ right now in all formats. He will change your Dynasty WR group for the next 5-7 years. And for the price today…it’s amazing value to not overpay for but pay going rates or possibly less. Flip something hot of the moment in a deal to secure the future.

Only Claypool’s off-field immaturity, a la JuJu, can hold him back from going to ‘great’/elite.

 

Eventually, Pat Freiermuth (1-24-0/1) is going to be a TE1 (if Ben holds up/hangs around) – whether it shows signs 2nd-half of 2021, or it’s in 2022. He’s moving well and just seems like he knows what he’s doing. I thought he would be an average/good NFL TE…but he is showing little mini signs of being more. It’s important he has a decent QB, not Dwayne Haskins, to ascend with…like it is for all TEs.

 

 -- Chase Claypool is a future star for sure, but the Steelers have another player that might be a naturally gifted future star on the other side of the ball – OLB/DE Alex Highsmith (5 tackles, 1 QB hit). Highsmith was so quick off the snap; he was drawing holding calls all over…and was held many other times that was not called. Who needs Bud Dupree?

I think Highsmith might have a chance at 10+ sacks this season.

 

 -- The Steelers defense is much better than I thought, as I previously stated. However, I still hate this schedule…

Week 2 = facing the hard to sack, solid Derek Carr

Week 3 = facing the savvy Joe Burrow

Week 4 = facing Aaron Rodgers at GB

Week 5 = facing a top O-Line with Teddy/DEN

Week 6 = facing Russell Wilson

Week 7 = BYE

Week 8 = facing a top O-Line with Cleveland.

Not a great opportunity/matchup the next 7 weeks.

 

 -- Buffalo’s defense is really good AND has a decent schedule ahead…

Week 2 = vs. Tua

Week 3 = vs. Heinicke

Week 4 = vs. Tyrod

Week 5 = at Mahomes…no good.

Week 6 = at Tennessee might be fine

Week 7 = BYE

*this post BYE first 6 weeks is awesome matchups for them too*

Week – vs. Tua

Week 9 = at JAX/Trevor

Week 10 = at NYJ/Z Wilson

Week 11 = vs. Wentz

Week 12 = at J Winston

Week 13 = vs. Mac Jones

Aside from Weeks 5 and 7, and 14 (Tampa) – you can run this defense every week otherwise.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

64 = Singletary

10 = Breida

 

53 = JuJu

44 = Diontae

39 = Claypool

 

58 = Najee (100%)…no worries of a rookie wall here, I guess…

Ross Jacobs

FFM

15 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Raiders 33, Ravens 27 (By Ross Jacobs)

 

What an absolutely crazy game. If you haven't already seen it, do yourself a favor and go watch this one. The NFL got the perfect opening weekend Monday night game here, a crazy thriller.

Everything started off innocuous enough. The Ravens seemed like they were going to go about business as usual. They took a lead and built it up to 14-0 as the Raiders attempted pass after pass to Darren Waller to no avail. It looked like a blowout was coming. But then Carr finally managed to connect on a few passes (to Waller) and Josh Jacobs scored from the 1 to make it 14-7. The Raiders got the ball back and snuck in a FG right before the half to cut the Raven lead to 4. 

Baltimore got the ball after half and quickly kicked a FG of their own to make it 17-10. The two teams traded defensive blows for a while but then a Lamar Jackson fumble set up the Raiders with a short field which they capitalized on to tie the game at 17. Baltimore would answer that score with an immediate TD drive of their own and at that point it felt like there was nothing Vegas could do to catch up. Baltimore had taken their best shot and come right back. But Carr and the Raiders didn't back down and landed a punch of their own with another TD drive capped off by a Waller TD to tie it back up. 

Baltimore responded with a FG to take the lead and with less than a minute left it looked like a long shot for Vegas to recover yet again. But Bryan Edwards finally came through with a couple of huge catches over the middle and Daniel Carlson booted a 55 yard FG to send it to OT. 

The Raiders got the ball to start overtime and after Edwards caught a long pass it appeared that he had scored a TD to win the game, but the booth ruled him down at the 1 and the game was back on. Carr was stuffed on a QB sneak and then a false start backed the Raiders up to 2nd and goal. Two plays later Carr was under pressure and threw a bullet to Willie Snead that ricocheted off his hands and was intercepted by the Ravens, but Lamar promptly fumbled the ball back to the Raiders who then looked like they were ready to kick an early FG to win the game. Unfortunately they took a delay of game penalty and so lined up for another play. Carr found Zay Jones running wide open to the endzone and the Raiders took the win.

The Ravens looked like the superior team overall, and they had multiple chances to slam the door on the Raiders, but they kept mucking around with Murray, letting Waller catch pass after pass, and the two fumbles ultimately did them in. It was really just shitty coaching that lost them this game, nothing that the players did wrong. Credit to the Raiders though, they were never afraid and both units kept firing despite taking body blows from the Ravens over and over. They played tough, relentless football and never quit. It was quite the gutsy performance. Is there hope for the Raiders defense? Maybe. But Baltimore did score 27 points on them and they weren't even playing that well. Ultimately I expect the Raiders overall lack of talent will hold them back. I don't see a team with enough firepower to really challenge the Chiefs or Chargers in this division, but they are definitely not a cakewalk and should be a tough out all year. 

The Ravens I expect to bounce back. I'm not sure what the coaches were doing here, but this staff usually doesn't pull stupid moves like this. They should bounce back to normal and compete with the Browns and Steelers for the North title. Not sure they are quite good enough but they'll be in the playoff mix.

 

There's a lot to talk about here, so buckle up.

 

--Fantasy Notes

We have to start with the player RC and I were pumping up all week long, Ty'Son Williams (9-65-1, 3-29-0/4). If you started Ty'Son you were probably pretty happy about the result. He finished with 18.4 points in ppr which is more than a solid day. However, it could/should have been so much better. It was incredibly frustrating to watch as Ty'Son was clearly the best RB the Ravens had available, and yet they really didn't give him the ball the way I thought they would. 

Nine carries isn't bad but he should have been in the double digits easily and possibly pushing towards 20 carries. Instead, the Ravens chose to shy away from their normal ground game and try to let Lamar throw more while simultaneously wasting carries on Latavius Murray (10-28-1) and Trenton Cannon (2-5-0). Anyone could see that both those guys were far inferior options to Ty'Son and yet the Ravens staff seemed to disagree. Even though Ty'Son was in for 50% of the snaps, he was out-carried by Murray (he probably wouldn't have been but he got shaken up at one point and had to leave the game for a series or two). Either way it was not the vote of confidence I was looking for and I am a bit more worried about his role moving forward even though the events that transpired should have been a huge wake up call for this staff. We're going to have to monitor this situation closely. 

Ty'Son should still be the theoretical lead back because Murray has nothing left, but I don't think we can just assume that especially after the nonsensical decisions this coaching staff made in this game. Let's see what happens against a nice matchup with the Chiefs. This could be the spot where Ty'Son really puts a stamp on this backfield and claims it for his own, or it could be where he falls back into a rotation with guys that shouldn't even be on an active roster. Make no mistake, Ty'Son is by far the best back on the roster and the Ravens should be giving him 15+ carries a game. That is still on the table and I think it's possible we see Ty'Son really take off from here.

In case you haven't gotten the point yet, Latavius Murray is a bum at this point with no juice left in him and should not be rostered.

Lamar Jackson (19-30 for 235 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 12-86-0) had a solid enough day for fantasy, but just happened to not score more than 1 TD and so it felt a little muted. Don't worry about him. He played as well as I've ever seen him despite being under quite a bit of pressure from the Raiders front seven.

You know who is a sneaky good ppr fantasy play whenever he's healthy? Marquise Brown (6-69-1/6, 1-5-0). In his last 7 games he's scored 7 TD's to go along with 26 catches for 407 yards, 15.5 ppg in ppr. That's top back end WR1 material. He doesn't wow with huge yardage totals, but he doesn't need to when he's piling up TD's.

Mark Andrews (3-20-0/5) had a quiet day, but he's still a TE1 all day. Sometimes you just have days like this.

In other news, Sammy Watkins (4-96-0/8) reappeared and caught one pass per million dollars he'll make this year. This guy must have taken sales lessons from Sam Bradford because he has duped more teams into wasting money on him than nearly anyone else I can think of. He looked shockingly slow to me here, like barely running away from KJ Wright slow. Most of his yards came on one chunk play where he got matched up with a LB because Vegas wasn't worried about him at all. I'm honestly not sure how he even got 8 targets or played 56 snaps. It did not feel like that much watching the game. Seems like the team is going to force him the ball though, so I guess you can use him if you're desperate. I'm not. Counting on Watkins is a recipe for disaster. You've been warned.

Devin Duvernay (1-6-0/2) was running as the #3 receiver here, but he was barely involved and will be back on the bench as soon as the other Baltimore receivers are healthy. Hate that he's buried like this but that's the reality.

Let's talk about the Raiders for a moment, because I'm sure everyone wants to hear about how Darren Waller (10-105-1/19) is going to get 300 targets this year. You can't make this crap up. The man got 19 targets last and the worst part is the Ravens coaching staff acted like they had no idea who he was even though every other person on the planet knew the Raiders were going to throw to him literally every play. It was one of the most baffling coaching decisions I've ever seen. 

Early in the game the Ravens had their all-world corner Marlon Humphrey (9 tackles, 1 pd) on him as well as a safety or two. Carr was literally throwing the ball into triple coverage trying to force it to Waller and of course it wasn't working. That's how the Ravens took the lead. Then, inexplicably, they moved Humphrey over to guard Hunter %*&#!@ Renfrow (6-70-0/9) and in the most obvious turn of events ever, Waller started beating the crap out of them. Like the rest of the world I'm completely baffled as to why this decision was made and who in the world thought it was a good idea. That move alone cost the Ravens this game. Carr couldn't connect on anything until Waller was suddenly set free to do as he pleased. Regardless, don't think that other coaching staffs will be this stupid every week. Waller is still going to get a ton of targets, but it shouldn't be this out of control every week. Of course, in his last 6 games now he has 74 targets (12.3 per game) for 53 catches for 759 yards and 5 TD's (26.5 ppg). Maybe I'm the fool for betting against this trend...

With Waller being the first, second, and third reads for Derek Carr (34-56 for 435 yards, 2 TD/1 INT) that left scraps for the WR's. Hunter Renfrow looks like the most important receiver of the bunch and he led the way with 6 catches for 70 yards despite playing fewer snaps than Edwards and Ruggs. Apparently he's the most amazing thing ever because the Ravens deemed him more worthy of Humphrey's attention than Waller. I digress. Renfrow is the latest iteration of your classic slot receiver (Amendola, Edelman, Beasley, etc). Beasley is probably the closest comparison. So long as he's getting targeted like this he's usable in a pinch as a WR3 in ppr.

2nd year receiver Bryan Edwards (4-81-0/5), who I have been touting all off-season, would finish with the 2nd most yards but was tied for 3rd in targets and didn't get his first catch until literally the last minute of the game before OT. He was the guy that made two clutch catches to get the tying FG and very nearly won the Raiders the game outright on their first drive in OT. He was called down just inches short though and lost the score. What to do with him? If you have him as a lottery ticket I would hold for the moment. You saw flashes of what he can do here. He just needs more targets. Waller shouldn't soak up half the attempts every week, so you'd think Edwards is bound to get a chance moving forward especially considering his heroics here. If you want to drop him though I can't say I'd blame you. There's an upside hiding here that's probably not available on your waiver wire though. Note that he played 70% of the snaps here. The team wants to get him involved. They just have to do it.

Regardless of what happens with Edwards, he's still 10x the receiver that Henry Ruggs (2-46-0/5) is. Ruggs got nearly all his yards on one catch where he was left wide open. He's outright terrible and shouldn't be anywhere near your leagues including in dynasty.

Josh Jacobs (10-34-2, 1-6-0/2) was the lead RB and had a good fantasy day with the 2 TD's but he looks sluggish and his offensive line isn't doing him any favors. He's also running in a near 50-50 split with Kenyan Drake (6-11-0, 5-59-0/5) who is getting more passing game work. Right now I'd much rather have Drake. He's the 3rd down and 2-minute back but is also mixing in on early downs at times. He's getting involved and with Carr throwing so many dump passes it's a useful role. He doesn't have to worry about the weak line because so much of his work is coming out in space in the passing game with teams completely focused on stopping Waller. He'll be more usable than Jacobs in most weeks where Jacobs isn't getting a TD.

 

--IDP Notes

The Raiders defense still isn't very good, but they were not afraid of the Ravens here and played with great energy and aggressiveness all game. Credit to them for not rolling over. I still don't think they are very good but they might be a tougher out than I originally expected.

Maxx Crosby (6 tackles, 2 sacks) was the standout performer here. He was a handful all night and just kept coming for Lamar. Not the greatest pass rusher ever, but he's tough, gives great effort, and is as relentless as they come.Three Raiders (Denzel Perryman, Johnathan Abram, and Corey Littleton) all racked up 10 tackles apiece but honestly none of them really stood out. There tend to be higher tackle numbers against the Ravens because they run so much. I doubt it continues at that pace for any of them.

A couple of rookie defenders for Vegas made their debut here. Safety Trevon Moehrig (5 tackles) is the starting free safety and played every snap. He looked ok but definitely not the best safety in his class. Don't see any special traits there. CB Nate Hobbs (2 tackles) played 50% of the snaps here and his role is likely to grow as the season goes on. He looks like a veteran out there, not a great one but just he moves around confidently and seems to know what he's doing. Solid addition to the defense.

I already covered Marlon Humphrey and how phenomenal he is, but I have to give credit to Patrick Queen (9 tackles, 1 sack) as well. He was a guy RC and I weren't high on in the 2020 draft, but he's really developed into a good all-around LB. The guy can cover, play the run, blitz, he has great range...he's a good player. He still hesitates a little too much at times, but that's honestly nitpicking. He's a fine player and a good start in IDP leagues.

I continue to see absolutely nothing from Jayson Oweh (2 tackles, 1 sack). His sack was a coverage sack plain and simple, nothing that Oweh did. This guy is supposed to be an athletic marvel but it just is not showing up right now. We should be seeing this guy exploding off the ball and giving blockers fits but he doesn't even show flashes of it, just plain old rush the passer like any other guy. Not a fan at all.

 

--Snap Counts of Interest

 

57 = Bryan Edwards

56 = Henry Ruggs

47 = Hunter Renfrow

 

45 = Josh Jacobs

41 = Kenyan Drake

 

56 = Sammy Watkins

47 = Marquise Brown

39 = Devin Duvernay

 

35 = Ty'Son Williams

21 = Latavius Murray

R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Eagles 32, Falcons 6

 

Very odd game… You would have sworn, watching the first 27 minutes, that the Falcons were just going to quietly move the ball efficiently on the Eagles, and maneuver their way to a close win in the end. It was 7-6 Philly approaching halftime. But with about 2 minutes left in the 1st-half to the finish line…the Eagles dominated the Falcons…embarrassed them.

The answer to whether Arthur Smith is an offensive genius is = he got thoroughly out-coached and out-schemed by Nick Sirianni, which I never would have dreamed…but here we are. The interesting alignments and play calling…all by Sirianni, not Smith.

Smith ran the most bland, boring offense I’ve seen so far in my Week 1 re-watches of games. And it doesn’t help that Matt Ryan is falling down a cliff in his career…and that they have no O-Line. I thought the Falcons might be a sneaky flirt with .500 team. I was wrong, this is one of the worst teams in the NFL.

I thought the Eagles would struggle under Sirianni, but he has Jalen Hurts…and properly designed an offense for him…and now I’m wondering whether they might not win the NFC East. I’m still suspicious of Sirianni, but I’ll move to neutral instead of mocking after this impressive Week 1 showing.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Let’s start with Jalen Hurts (27-35 for 264 yards, 3 TD/0 INTs, 7-62-0)…

*Hurts is the much better Lamar Jackson…the LJax the media thinks Jackson is.

*Hurts is obviously better than Tua from the 2020 Draft class, as I scouted/graded (the only one to do so) in January 2020 pre-Draft. Now, I’m starting to wonder if Hurts is going to wind up better than Burrow…and that’s not a knock on Burrow. That’s how good Hurts is.

*Hurts is starting to flash that he might be a top 3-5 FF QB in 4pts per pass TD…and a possible #1 in that format.

*Hurts is the best spread QB in the NFL…he can pass the ball effectively, but he runs it like none other…a power RB build in a QB body.

All-in on Hurts.

People still don’t fully appreciate it…they will sell it short fearing a ‘falls back to earth’ because the mainstream won’t endorse Hurts like they do half the other QBs in the league. You have a limited time to make a move for Hurts if you want in…and now more expensive than a week ago.

 

 -- Oh…and speaking of QBs…Matt Ryan (21-35 for 164 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) is about done as an effective starter in this league. The lack of an O-Line is only accelerating the problem. Ryan is going to be nothing this year…he can hardly do garbage time anymore. Ryan is becoming a lesser Andy Dalton 2021…

Calvin Ridley (5-51-0/8) is going to suffer because of it.

 

 -- So, how about that Kyle Pitts (4-31-0/8) exciting debut!? Yawwwnnn

With months to prepare, and a lot of talk about all the exciting things one could do with a talent like Pitts…Arthur Smith did nothing interesting with him at all. Pitts basically ran the same three routes over and over and over again. Boring, old fashioned routes like what a Cole Kmet or James O’Shaughnessy might run.

They used up a #4 overall pick…and talked all summer about all the magical things they could do with Pitts, and then ran the most basic concepts with him Week 1. Pitts had more interesting work in his one play in the preseason…a play where he took a -1 yard pass and turned it into 20+ yards. Remember how cool that play was in design and simplicity? Yeah, well…it was so good the Falcons didn’t run it this game.

But hey, who am I to question the offensive genius (Art Smith) who has yet to see his team score a TD in his NFL head coaching career.

Pitts is going to be fine. He can work well being used as a basic TE. He’ll grow, they’ll grow with him…but it’s going to be a bumpy, more disappointing ride the next few weeks. Be prepared to be disappointed.

I will add…

1) Hayden Hurst had as many catches as Pitts.

2) The first series, the Falcons drove right down the field and into the red zone…and Pitts never was in the game for the first red zone. Hurst was subbed into the red zone offense and Pitts never went in…and SURPRISE the Falcons couldn’t get it into the end zone. Who would want Pitts to be in for end zone work? How silly…

3) Pitts had a nice catch early on, deemed out of bounds. He had another nice catch and run for 10+ called back for an offensive penalty. Pitts was misused mightily in this game…and almost had a 6 catch on 9 targets debut despite it. There is hope.

…but, no, Arthur Smith is not an offensive genius…yet.

 

 -- Arthur Smith saved all his genius for Cordarrelle Patterson (7-54-0, 2-13-0/2). The player lining up all over and having a game plan was CPatt. Not Pitts.

Things you must consider:

1) Mike Davis (15-49-0, 3-23-0/6) looks shot. He’s almost like Atlanta’s Latavius Murray 2021.

2) Cordarrelle Patterson is a 220+ RB running like his life depended upon it. And lining up all over…and was seeing red zone work and goal line type work (when ATL did get close).

3) Yards per carry in this game:

7.7 Patterson

3.3 Mk Davis

4) It may not be long before Patterson is the lead back here…either via Davis injury or just a hostile takeover.

5) You want in NOW on that gamble, because it’s going to get more expensive as we go.

 

 -- Kenneth Gainwell (9-37-1, 2-6-0/2) was working like a true 3rd-down/passing game back. He got a lot more work than I thought he would for Week 1. He didn’t look great, but he wasn’t bad. The Eagles have a ton of faith in that guy. I didn’t think they would so soon. He is the handcuff for sure, obviously.

 

 -- Eagles receivers report…

DeVonta Smith (6-71-1/8) hit the ground running. Hurts was so smooth in this game, and DeVonta is his guy. I worried there might be passing game dysfunction here with the new coaching staff, but it was humming (and ATL is nice a team to throw on)…and DeVonta is already their #1.

Jalen Reagor (6-49-1/6) had a decent game, but Quez Watkins (3-32-0/3) still looks better to me…but Reagor is more prominent in the offense.

Dallas Goedert (4-42-1/5) was in the shadow of Zach Ertz (2-34-0/2) for a bit, but then started roiling…and reminded me that despite the bad situation in Philly (with Ertz there) – Goedert is still a damn good/talented TE.

 

 -- Credit to the Eagles-DST here. They were pushed around the first 2-3 series and then they just slammed the door on Atlanta…9 QB hits, 3 sacks, 6 TFLs. The Falcons were under 100 total yards of offense in the 2nd-half.

Javon Hargrave had 6 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 3 QB hits to lead the assault.

We’ll see if they are good against SF Week 2…but we got issues Week 3 at DAL, Week 4 with KC. But if they look nice vs. SF…it’s something to look at later if needed when they face NYG-NYJ-bye-WSH-NYG-WSH Weeks 12-17.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

49 = Pitts

43 = H Hurst

 

54 = MK Davis

24 = CPatt

 

62 = DeVonta

50 = Reagor

34 = Watkins

 

52 = Goedert

41 = Ertz

 

47 = Sanders

25 = Gainwell

R.C. Fischer

FFM

14 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Chargers 20, Washington 16

 

Many other Week 1 games had big name stars going or fancy rookie QBs and/or were high scoring affairs with lots of visual appeal. With all the other attention getting things happening, this lower scoring game quietly flew under the radar -- but it shouldn’t have. It was a heavyweight battle involving two of the better teams in football – one of the 3-5 best offenses versus the #1-2 defense in the NFL.

With the lower score/scoring, you’d think the defenses won out…that it was a slog of a defensive affair. And it was a good-to-great defensive showing on both sides, but after watching this tape I would summarize it as: Washington had to play really well on defense to keep themselves in this/they are lucky the Chargers didn’t blow them out.

And I don’t want that sentence to be just a nice, forgettable description of the game in a nutshell. Washington played very well on defense, but the Chargers were so good they nearly blew them out. ‘Nearly blew them out’…in a 20-16 final?

‍

Let me share this from the game: The Chargers had nine offensive drives in the game, they went as follows…

#1) TD drive off the bat

#2) Three and out punt

#3) punt

#4) LAC going into the red zone but a pure drop by Keenan Allen did convert an easy 3rd-down, so they settled for FG.

#5) Goal-to-go, but had to settle for FG

#6) Into the red zone…a fumble ended the drive.

#7) Into the red zone, but an overthrow INT

#8) WSH fumbled near their own goal line…set up an easy score for LAC soon after

#9) LAC embarked on a 15 play, 72-yard drive to get down to the goal-to-go but took knees to end it for the win.

The Chargers scored 20 points, but it took luck and good+ Washington defense for this not to be a game where the Chargers scored 30+ easy. had the Chargers posted 30-35+ on Washington it would have been monumental...and should've been worshipped. But it didn't happen...but it almost did, and we should take serious note of that.

The Chargers had the perfect game plan to neutralize the Washington pass rush most of the game…Justin Herbert is too good for good defenses to fiddle with. Herbert played a smart game against a good-to-great defense. It was as good a performance as there was all week from a QB, but no one in the media is going to recognize it. They’ll be off celebrating Jameis Winston and Matt Stafford.

Credit Washington for hanging in…they really should have won this game. With a 16-13 lead in the 4th-quarter, Antonio Gibson fumbled near their own goal line and turned it over for an easy LAC TD soon after, and a 20-16 lead they wouldn’t relinquish.

A quality game on both sides…but the Chargers with more quality, on both sides. Washington a yeoman’s effort after losing Ryan Fitzpatrick so soon in the game. These are both playoff level teams, with the Chargers going to be the future of the NFL with their QB and head coach/staff.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- I have to start with Justin Herbert (31-47 for 337 yards, 1 TD/1 INT).

No QB had a tougher opening week game…west-to-east coast trip/timing, new offense/coaches, taking on a/the top defensive team in the NFL – and he got the team into the red zone on seven of 9 drives…amazing. And all the drive failures were mostly all flukes (easy dropped passes, weird fumble, near miss TDs) but Washington also rose up to make matters tougher. Herbert, in reality, should have had 3-4 TD passes here. Had he posted 330+ yards and 3-4 TDs against Washington…he would be hailed today, but he didn’t…he had a muted (kinda) Week 1 for FF in a game most people didn’t really pay attention to as much as other more marquee matchups. To me, this was the marquee matchup of Week 1.

So, the Justin Herbert hype train didn’t gain any steam because of all the stated factors…which means people aren’t celebrating him like they are many other QBs. If there were ‘regression’ worries on Herbert for current owners, then this game didn’t end those thoughts. It means, in some cases, Herbert is high priced…but reasonably available…even if you have to overpay for it a little.

Herbert’s talent behind this elite O-Line, and elite coaching staff (potentially) is going mean this is a top 1-2-3 NFL offense. Which means Herbert is going to be a top 1-2-3 FF QB, but his valuation in the world is more like he’s a #6-7-8 QB. It represents great value if you want to try and get it. This was the tough part of their schedule…now it’s an open road, mostly, the rest of the way.

 

 -- Who was Herbert throwing to besides Keenan Allen (9-100-0/13)?

Mike Williams (8-82-1/12) had a day against a very good cover secondary. Williams had a drop or two in tight coverage. He also did that annoying leap/jump/crash for passes and then came up hurt a few times but played through it. One of his best games in the NFL working a more normal WR role…not just deep ball/jump ball guy. This is going to pay off, as we hoped…better than we hoped.

Jaylen Guyton (3-49-0/5) ran as the #3 WR, and he looked better than I’ve seen…like a real WR. Being a #3 on the Chargers means he might sneak into WR3/Flex discussions in deeper leagues.

Jared Cook (5-56-0/8) looks old/rickety but is the TE of note for Herbert for sure. I’m down with Cook as being a TE1 now…a fringe one. Donald Parham (0-0-0/1) saw some red zone work but was mostly a ghost.

 

 -- The LAC RB report was not what I expected…

Obviously, Austin Ekeler (15-57-1, 0-0-0/0) started…but he didn’t even see a target in this game. For all the ‘this is a version of the Saints offense’ talk in the preseason…there was no Kamara-like work for Ekeler here. It may have just been the game plan for WSH, but this is concerning right off the bat for Ekeler owners.

Justin Jackson (1-5-0, 1-2-0/1) was the #2 back, but was barely identifiable.

The odd thing I didn’t see coming: rookie RB Larry Roundtree (8-27-0) was in the game's first series (3rd RB in the game, but in) and was running a power game…and got 8 carries. More than most rookie RBs had Week 1. He’s not great but he is big and obviously LAC trusts him. I’m not excited about him, but after watching this game back Monday -- I’m more curious about him as a handcuff than the totally dismissive person I was after Sunday.  Not hot for him, just recognizing he’s got more than zero value I thought he had.

 

 -- Ryan Fitzpatrick (3-6 for 13 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) is going to be out at least half the season, possibly more. Will the Football Team go get a Nick Foles or Cam Newton or other? No.

Ron Rivera loves Taylor Heinicke (11-15 for 122 yards, 1 TD/0 INT), so he won’t ruin that by bringing in more talented guys. Rivera also loves Kyle Allen if need be.

Heinicke is a capable stop gap, quintessential backup QB. Good in a pinch…not what you want for half a season with a playoff level team, but that’s exactly what’s coming.

 

 -- How does Heinicke affect Washington weapons for FF?

Heinicke is more of a short and medium thrower, and his O-Line doesn’t give him a ton of time…so, this isn’t great for Terry McLaurin (4-62-0/4).

It’s OK for Logan Thomas (3-30-1/3)…they had a nice relationship last year in their playoff game together, and hooked up for a score here. You’d rather have Fitz or other for Logan, but it will be fine.

Antonio Gibson (20-90-0, 3-18-0/5) is the offense, and will remain so.

Dyami Brown (1-0-0/4)…you have to be kidding me…

 

 -- IDP notes…

Cole Holcomb (11 tackles, 1 QB hit) led the way in tackles for WSH…and he looks great. He’s a legit LB1 this year, it appears.

Kenneth Murray (10 tackles) led the Chargers in tackles, as I had hoped. Two of my favorite linebacker talents in all of football are Murray and Holcomb.

Derwin James (7 tackles, 1 PD) is back, and didn’t tear his ACL! He’s a DB1 when healthy.

 

 -- Speaking of defense, two of the best units in football were on display here.

Washington was very good, but not as radical as I hoped…but considering the opponent, this was good. Washington’s pass rush was constantly neutralized by a good/great Chargers O-Line and Herbert’s purposed quick passing. Not many teams have the O-Line and a QB with a howitzer arm like the Chargers do. Only the Chiefs…and maybe the Bills do but it didn't look like it Week 1.

The Chargers should be a top 5 FF DST, but they won’t be – the schedule is way too tough. Dak-Mahomes-Carr-Baker/run game-Lamar/run game-BYE-NE run game-PHI run game for the next 8 weeks…not fruitful for FF scoring. Too many good+ O-Lines and QBs to face. Just a bad schedule is all. Otherwise, this defense is a top 5 or so NFL unit already.

The two best teams in football may be the Chiefs and Chargers…and they’re in the same division. Crazy.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

36 = A Gibson

20 = McKissic

04 = Patterson

55 = McLaurin

51 = Dyami

33 = Humphries

02 = Cam Sims

 

67 = Keenan

61 = Mk Williams

53 = Guyton

14 = Josh Palmer

 

47 = Cook

41 = Parham

20 = Stv Anderson

By Ross Jacobs

FFM

14 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Seahawks 28, Colts 16 (By Ross Jacobs)

 

This was a dull watch and I don't have any earth-shattering fantasy notes to talk about. You know what you're getting with these two teams. Lots of running plus a few Russell Wilson bombs and lots of running plus a bunch of Carson Wentz checkdowns. Routine stuff.

Indy started with the ball and calmly drove the field to take a quick 3-0 lead. The Seahawks responded with a smooth drive of their own capped off with a nice adjustment by Tyler Lockett for a TD. Indy regained the lead shortly after with another good drive to make it 10-7 Colts, but Seattle scored the next two touchdowns to grab a nice 21-10 lead. It was around this time that the Colts started faltering a little. Their offensive line was under siege and they couldn't keep a drive going. A late DK Metcalf TD would be the final dagger for Indy as they didn't have enough time to recover and fell 28-16 after scoring a garbage time TD.

These are two decent teams. Seattle is a contender as usual although I don't think they are a favorite. They'll probably be a wild card with somewhere around 11 wins or so. Indy looks a step back from last year because their defense isn't quite as good although getting Xavier Rhodes back from injury would help. I wouldn't panic if you're a Colts fan. They should finish around 9 wins or so and be a tough out for better teams. They don't look like a real Superbowl contender though.

 

--Fantasy Notes

It's once again a Chris Carson (16-91-0, 3-26-0/3) offense in Seattle. He's a RB1 until further notice. You wish your favorite RB got this kind of treatment. It doesn't matter that Carson fumbled the ball away here. It doesn't matter that he's just an ok, straight ahead power runner. Nothing matters except the fact that Pete loves him some Carson and nothing is going to get in the way of that. So long as he's healthy Carson should come in somewhere around 1200 yards and 10+ TD's along with 40-50 catches for another 300 yards or so.

Rashaad Penny (2-8-0) was a ghost here and clearly not a part of the game plan, but he exited the game with a calf strain and will be gone several more weeks. I think it's time we bury this hope for good. He was replaced by DeeJay Dallas (1-5-0, 1-5-0/1) who will now serve as the backup to Carson for whatever that is worth.

RC Note: I think Alex Collins is in play more for the #2 RB role, but we’ll see. Collins was inactive for this game, and Dallas wasn’t. 

The Seahawks ran it early and often and it seems abundantly clear there won't be any cooking for Russell Wilson (18-23 for 254 yards, 4 TD/0 INT) if Pete Carrol can help it. Russ threw for 4 TD's but that isn't happening every week. I expect a lower volume for Wilson this year compared to the last few (provided Carson stays healthy) and that's going to hold him back just a little from being a top 5 QB. He looks like a back end QB1 to me.

With a fall in Wilson's passing volume there will be a corresponding fall in the production of Tyler Lockett (4-100-2/5) and DK Metcalf (4-60-1/5). Yes, both guys just had good days, but they aren't catching TD's every week to make up for a meager 4 catches. I don't care how efficient Russell is, if they don't get more than 5 targets apiece those numbers are going to come crashing down. The next several weeks look very juicy though. Tennessee, Minnesota, and SF all have bad secondaries. A good play might be to let these guys ride the wave and then flip them for something nicer off of a few big weeks. The rest of year schedule is a weird mix of really great matchups and really hard ones, so be prepared for the inevitable down weeks if you hold.

Rookie Dwayne Eskridge (1-6-0/1, 2-22-0) looked like a Tyler Lockett clone in his short appearance here. He took a big shot late in the game and left with a concussion. He's already been dealing with a ton of injuries and the year has barely started. Starting to worry me that's it's going to be a constant issue with him. He's at least a year away from mattering for fantasy if not more.

Newly acquired TE Gerald Everett (2-20-1/2) had a couple of nifty screen passes set up for him. It felt like he was more involved than his numbers show. The reality is he was splitting time with Will Dissly (3-37-0/3). Neither guy is more than a prayer bye week start hoping for a TD.

RC bashed on Carson Wentz (25-38 for 251 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 4-23-0) and I get why, but after watching this game closely...Wentz looked pretty good honestly. He was driving the Colts down the field just fine early on, and it wasn't until the dam broke and he had pressure in his face literally every play that the trouble started. Even then he played well considering the circumstances. Getting left tackle Eric Fisher back healthy would be a big help. I've done my fair share of Wentz bashing in the past, including very early last year when I noted that he was playing like garbage before the injury, but the Wentz I saw here was playing quite well. He's got some sneaky upside in better matchups.

Jonathan Taylor (17-56-0, 6-60-0/7) is also a RB1 or 1.5 at worst. I don't like how often he comes out for Nyheim Hines (9-34-0, 6-48-0/8), but so long as he's getting touches like this I can live with it. Taylor had a solid day that could have been very good except he lost a TD run to a stupid penalty. His ypc was really low and that is 100% because his line was getting destroyed by Seattle. I wouldn't expect a dominant line this year, but they should be better once Fisher is back and Nelson gets closer to 100%. It's not a huge worry but something to watch especially with the news that RT Braden Smith is now dealing with a foot injury. These backup tackles aren't good. You can still start Taylor with confidence just based on volume though. 

Hines is a nice cheap play in DFS or as a bye week fill-in/RB starved. He's the Giovani Bernard that RC was hoping for and he's available in a ton of leagues on waivers. Not sexy but functional.

Outside those two guys it gets messy for the Colts pass catchers. To my eyes Michael Pittman (3-29-0/4) has all the talent/ability to be a bona fide #1 receiver, but he's not getting that kind of treatment. It's like he's just another one of the guys and in fact they use him more as a blocker than anything else. If he ever gets peppered with targets it could be special.

The guy I'm most excited for though is the rookie RC and I have been following, Mike Strachan (2-26-0/2). He's still being used as the #4 receiver, but the rare times they put him in the game Wentz was looking for him specifically. I believe they are trying to bring him along slowly but know exactly what they have. He's got the chops to be a star but the time isn't right yet. Trying to predict this thing is going to be tough, but at some point Strachan is going to put up a monster game and there won't be any going back. It may not be in 2021, could be a 2022 thing, but it's going to happen at some point. Imagine the Travis Fulgham episode from last year with Wentz and the Eagles but with a 10x better receiver than Fulgham. If/when that happens we need to be ready.

Zach Pascal (4-43-2/5) got the TD's today so he's magically a priority waiver pickup for many people. Please don't. Pascal isn't a very good receiver and certainly isn't catching 2 TD's every week. He's just holding a spot until Strachan is ready to step up.

Parris Campbell (1-24-0/3) is healthy (for the moment) and looks fast enough but there's no real push to target him. He's just one more guy in a rotation.

Jack Doyle (3-21-0/4) and Mo Alie-Cox (0-0-0/2) are splitting reps at TE. Neither is usable.

 

--IDP Notes

Bobby Wagner (13 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 pd) led the way for Seattle of course, but 2nd year LB Jordyn Brooks (11 tackles) acquitted himself well with his performance. He looks like the new, faster, better KJ Wright.

Quandre Diggs (9 tackles) was shockingly one of the best players on the field here. He was flying all over the field hitting everything in sight, constantly around the ball. Very impressed with what I saw from him.

Darrell Taylor (2 tackles, 1 sack) had a couple of splash plays late but he wasn't a real factor here. He was just another cog in the Seattle pass rush. Rasheem Green (4 tackles, 1 sack), Kerry Hyder Jr (3 tackles), and Benson Mayowa (2 tackles, 1 sack) all rotated in along with Taylor and all four guys were causing problems for Indy. Colts RT Braden Smith was getting beaten by everyone that lined up over him and it was announced after the game that he is dealing with an injury and LT Julie'n Davenport also got whipped while filling in for Eric Fisher.

3rd year Colts safety Khari Willis (7 tackles) is projected to do big things for fantasy this year by many and he got a good number of tackles here, but he was getting absolutely mauled in coverage by Tyler Lockett. It was not good. He may be a good fantasy play, but I would not want him on my real team. Targeting him with under the radar WR's could be a sneaky DFS play.

 

‍

--Snap Counts of Interest

 

42 = Jonathan Taylor

34 = Nyheim Hines

 

74 = Michael Pittman

69 = Zach Pascal

46 = Parris Campbell

18 = Mike Strachan

 

45 = Jack Doyle

39 = Mo Alie-Cox

 

42 = Chris Carson

7 = Rashaad Penny

 

50 = DK Metcalf

46 = Tyler Lockett

23 = Freddie Swain

12 = Dwayne Eskridge

 

39 = Gerald Everett

38 = Will Dissly

R.C. Fischer

FFM

14 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Saints 38, Packers 3

 

I’m going to get right into this analysis, clinical-like…because I watched all the plays in detail here from the perspective of – did this really just happen? How did the Saints crush the Packers? Is Aaron Rodgers mentally done with the Packers, and thus this whole thing is about to fall apart…for NFL purposes, and for Fantasy purposes? Is Jameis Winston for real?

I’m not going to chronicle every play and lament certain details in the intro. I’m going to discuss things off the top ‘in general’, and you’ll have to choose to believe me or not because I can’t take hours to write this going through every moment/drive/play to give my evidence. So, with that…as your football physician, here’s what I walk away from this game tape thinking…

 

1) I’m not going to say the Packers were for sure the better team or that the Saints got totally lucky, but I will say everything that could go right for the Saints did fall in their lap…while most everything the Packers did blew up in their face. And as the bad luck unfolded, and the Saints kept extending their lead and their luck, which led to the Saints becoming more energized and the Packers getting more flustered/desperate as it went…and then they threw in the towel on the unlucky day.

If there were ever a perfect storm game…it was this one. And the Saints are better than I thought (especially on defense) and the Packers are worse than I thought (especially on the O-Line)…but the gap between them is not 35 points…and Rodgers 0 TDs/2 INTs and Winston 5 TDs/0 INTs is not the new reality.

There was so much good fortune involved in this game that I assume God bet the Saints -30.0 just to play a joke on the world at large. I’ll get into detail on some of what I mean by ‘luck’ or ‘good fortune’ in some of the player detail, but in general…the Saints converted some 3rd & longs that were not normal, while the Packers would have drives blown up by shaky penalty calls, or the right guy blitzing to the right space, almost as if they knew where Rodgers was going on a rollout every time. There were some horrific penalties called and other non-calls that was some of the worst officiating that happened Week 1 or will this entire season…and every key bad call went against Green Bay/for the Saints at the perfect time and every non-call went against the Packers/saved the Saints at the perfect time.

I’ve never seen a game so ‘willed’ by fate to make sure one team blew out another. The Saints played a good game, but they were gifted so many things it just energized them and demoralized the Packers.

 

2) The Packers have issues because their O-Line has been hit. They lost one of the best Centers in the game (Corey Linsley) to LAC in free agency – and is a main reason why Rodgers will bail in 2022 if he can. One of the worst things any GM did all offseason was let the key Center go who protected the league’s best QB to an MVP season in 2020. Also, the long time ace left tackle, David Bakhtiari is on PUP for 6 games. Arguably the two best OLs on the team from 2020 are gone and rookies are elevated, and other guys moved positions to cover for things.

When you have O-Line issues…your QB suddenly looks bad. On the other side of the field -- the Saints O-Line was spectacular, and thus Winston had a highly efficient day.

 

3) The Saints pass coverage was stunning in this game. Less time to throw for Rodgers mixed with very good coverage left Rodgers looking flustered and inefficient. If you wrote the opposite of that last statement, you get the Saints offense in this game…more time to throw for Winston mixed with so-so GB coverage left Winston looking comfortable and efficient.

 

4) The Packers offense is not as good as the 2020 version because of the O-Line issues, but they play the perfect team Week 2 to have their day – the Detroit Lions have no pass rush and have no coverage. I assume my best bet of the century is going to be Packers -10.5 over the Lions. It’s the wrong time for Detroit to go to Green Bay…the wrong time, the wrong team.

If the Lions give Rodgers fits, then this season is over. I think the Packers will drop 40+ on Detroit and crush them.

 

5) The Saints are not this good, but they’re better on defense than I ever imagined. They are now a run game and defense team, with Winston a ticking time bomb that will blow at the wrong times when he’s under pressure. I would say Carolina at home +3.5 over New Orleans, in a reversal of NO fortune week,  is the other bet of the century, but Sam Darnold is awful…so, I’ll just ‘pick’ Carolina not bet it.

 

6) Watching all the little details fall one way to one team causing a rout that I thought would happen the other way (GB crushing NO), and seeing the underdogs go 9-5-1 or 10-6 ATS this week – I’m just going to ‘pick’ all the underdogs every week unless there is a very special circumstance. I’m tweaking my game projection models to favor taking the underdogs every week and assuming it will all work out like it has the past couple of years.

They could play this GB-NO game a hundred times and GB might win/cover 60-70 of them, but there would only be one of the 100…one of a million where the Saints win by 35. NFL games are so fickle on bad calls, no calls, ball bouncing the right way, guessing right or wrong on a blitz to change a drive, a dropped pass, etc. Trying to spend hours debating ‘the better team’ going into a week is fun but a waste of handicapping time – I mean, look at how the MNF game ended with BAL-LV. The game was decided by idiotic coaching, inches short of things on further review, guessing right on a play call/guessing wrong on a play call. I thought LV would cover, but they should’ve lost that game 10 times over…and also they should’ve won that game by more than they did, all at the same time.

NFL game outcomes are such random events we try to build complicated algorithms on to predict – but it might be better to just assume crazy will happen more times than not, and I might as well take the points since that seems to be the best bet over time.

Now, let’s talk about something a bit more predictable…player performances.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Is Aaron Rodgers (15-289 for 133 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) dead? Did he die here? Is he quitting on the Packers?

From the live watch, trying to process the disaster I was watching…I thought all those things going into it. I wondered about them. I started creating narratives in my head about them. But then I watched this game tape and realized that’s my Fantasy ‘sky is falling’ mindset trying to kick in. It’s nowhere near that.

There is a problem with the Packers ability to protect Rodgers. He is not going to have an MVP season behind this O-Line. When he gets David Bakhtiari back in Week 7 (hopefully) then things will turn. Until then, you are getting ‘good+’ Aaron Rodgers not ‘elite’ Aaron Rodgers.

However, he has Detroit Week 2…which takes good+ to elite easily.

Week 3, Rodgers faces the vacant 49ers secondary…that’s hope he can overcome their front seven by blistering their back 4.

Week 4…trouble vs. PIT, but you can’t really sit him.

Week 5…at CIN is fine. So is Week 6 at CHI.

If you get Bakhtiari back Week 7…then hosting WSH is bad but not as bad. Week 8 at ARI is not good. Week’s 7-8 are him facing the two best defenses in football. Week 9 is not easy at KC. Week 12 hosting the Rams is maybe the 3rd best defense in the NFL. Week 11 at MIN is a place you hate playing with the crowd noise.

From Week 12-17…all outdoor, colder weather worries to suppress the offense, possibly.

What I would do if I owned Aaron Rodgers…I’d get that good Weeks 2-3 or 2-6, and then look at moving sideways into a top QB in a better situation. That schedule from Week 5 or Week 7 on…the O-Line issues…I’d rather roll with Justin Herbert (among others) for that stretch, on paper.

As an aside…Jordan Love (5-7 for 68 yards,. 0 TDs/0 INTs) came into the game in the 4th-quarter when this was out of hand. There’s nothing to read into here because it was backups v. backups in unnatural circumstances. But note that Jordan Love will be the Packers QB in 2022, if not midseason after a Rodgers trade.

Oh, and Davante Adams (5-56-0/7) is fine…it’s just the bad game vibe , the great NO coverage, the limited time of possession, the 1st-team pulled for the 4th-quarter. Everything that could have gone wrong did. I suspect ‘Hulk Smash’ Week 2 for Davante v. DET’s secondary.

Oh, and the Rodgers will help his old friend Randall Cobb (1-32-0/1) narrative…hardly. Hard to help him if he can’t get open anymore. The bad O-Line PLUS the better WRs non-Davante are on the bench. Lazard should be starting over MVS and Amari Rodgers over Cobb. But this is what Aaron wants…and we’ll pay an FF price for it.

 

 -- You want something Green Bay to worry about…OK, you got it: I told you all preseason A.J. Dillon (4-19-0, 1-7-0/1) was cause for concern for how much it cost to redraft Aaron Jones (5-9-0, 2-13-0/2)…and now it’s real.

You may think, well this game was a mess so they probably just shut things down and changed plans and put AJD into the game as it got away. No, my friend…that wasn’t it. In the same manner in which I was shocked to see Tony Pollard in the game prominently for whole series at a time over Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas’s Week 1…it was even more so shocking how much Dillon was in this game for whole series, and in key spots…and even in passing situations where the Pack was down and having to throw, and there was Dillon.

Snap share comparison (before starters pulled): 64% Jones, 36% Dillon

Touch count share for the game: 7 Jones, 5 Dillon

I’m not saying Aaron Jones is a bust…but he’s very much at risk of being just a nice RB2 – with the pressure that if Dillon gets hot, as we know he can, it could be more of a 50/50 situation ahead.

This was Week 1…and this was the plan (some kind of Jones-Dillon rotation) before things fell apart, and while things were falling apart. I was shocked watching it back.

 

 -- Was this a reformed Jameis Winston (14-20 for 148 yards, 5 TDs/0 INT, 6-37-0)?

No.

It was a lucky Winston…which he’s getting so lucky that I wonder if we should all just ride with the blessings or soul-selling path he is on. Winston barely had to do anything in this game. He couldn’t have had but 3-4 times where he had to sit in the pocket and be a real QB…and faltered most times he had to.

Winston was flushed from the pocket several times and somehow avoided all defenders and turned 3rd & longs into 10-15+ yard runs with nothing but green grass to run to. He also threw a terrible pick in the red zone at one point, but then the biggest horse $#!& penalty for roughing the passer was called…so erase the turnover, put them closer to the end zone, and he then threw a lucky pass for another TD…that should’ve never happened AND been a pick…AND it may have turned the game back to some GB hope to get back ion. Instead, it extinguished the Pack...it was that kind of day.

I don’t see Winston doing anything he hasn’t done before…just played it safe behind a heavy run game…14 completed passes vs. 39 runs. And most of the completed passes were easy pitch & catch short stuff. It was a perfect storm for Winston…a perfect game plan in the perfect situation with everything going right that could go right.

 

 -- Who was Winston throwing to on his 14 completed passes?

Not Marquez Callaway (1-14-0/2)…as I feared/warned. Callaway caught the very first pass of the game, and no more the rest of the way. Jaire Alexander ate him up/Winston is the wrong QB for Callaway’s skillset.

Juwan Johnson (3-21-2/3) looked good as a big/tall target option. Johnson still looks choppy as a tight end…too herkie jerky on routes and catching the ball, but I could be nitpicking too much. He made a nice leaping catch/nice radius grab for a TD for JW here and secured an easy one later. I shouldn’t be too against him, but I fear he’s the wrong guy to work with Winston consistently…that Adam Trautman (3-18-0/6) will be a better worker for Winston’s style…but JJ is good for red zone work for sure.

Deonte Harris (2-72-1/2) is money if they get him the ball, but there was no need to run his special bubbles and jet sweeps with the Saints just running roughshod over the Packers. When they called on Harris…he was open and making grabs. He’ll see more targets when the game script is more normal.

 

 -- Tony Jones (11-50-0, 1-3-0/1) ran the same plan as Latavius Murray used to. He got good touches here because they ran the ball so much. He’ll be 6-12 touches per game as the game dictates…not really that FF-worthy with AK alive and dominating touches.

 

 -- Let’s talk about three defensive things from this game…

1) The Saints coverage in this game was extraordinary…even when Marshon Lattimore was out for some snaps with a hand injury. This is a better-than-I-expected defense who took it to a weakened O-Line, lazy/presumptive Packers offense.

Facing Darnold, Mac Jones, D Jones, Heinicke the next four weeks is potential DST gold.

2) One of the reasons the Saints secondary was so ‘wow’ – rookie CB Paulson Adebo (3 tackles, 1 INT) played like a shutdown corner…or at least not anything like a rookie. What a draft pick by New Orleans. Adebo looked beyond his years. He was a higher rated CB prospect for us pre-Draft, but I didn’t think he’d be this good this fast.

Lattimore-Roby-Adebo takes the Saints from suspect in the secondary to one of the best secondaries in the NFL, potentially. All aboard the Saints-DST hype train.

3) Krys Barnes (8 tackles) just gets tackles. I keep saying it like every week since he debuted last season, but the guy just gets numbers. He is a threat to lead the league in tackles this season.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

51 = Trautman

12 = Juwan Johnson

 

52 = Callaway

27 = Deonte Harris

18 = Lil’Jordan Humphrey

 

23 = Kaden Elliss

23 = Zack Baun

 

40 = Davante

39 = Lazard

36 = MVS

15 = Cobb

 

28 = A Jones

16 = AJ Dillon

 

45 = Kamara

22 = Tony Jones

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

13 September 2021

Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

13 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Preseason Wk1 Game Analysis: Steelers 24, Eagles 16

 

Jalen Hurts played a couple of series against Mason Rudolph, mostly running with 1st-team offensive players -- and it was all solid/nothing special from the starters. Pretty vanilla. Then the backup QBs and offense/defense started filtering in and the game devolved into a painful watch with a few things flashing, or trying to, however. We’ll discuss all of it here from my game notes.

Before that, I just want to say – I love the preseason. I love watching/scouting the young players to try and gain clues to confirm, or adjust, my pre-Draft scouting and analytics on these players. What I also love, but mostly hate, about the preseason – we get the local hometown feed, the local broadcasters/analysts covering the game. And let me tell you…whatever your religious faith/persuasion is, you only wish you loved/worshipped and believed in your deity as much as local TV analysts love the football team they are covering. The coverage, the fawning is so painful, so over-the-top that I toggle between absolutely hating it and simultaneously loving it at the same time – it’s so breathtakingly cult-like, I laugh at it and admire their total brainwashed devotion to it.

In this game, I got the Eagles feed…and let me just say, Nick Sirianni must be Vince Lombardi and Bill Walsh all wrapped into one with a coating of Bill Belichick. I mean, that’s all I can glean from the illustrious Philly commentators…just how amazingly smart and crafty Sirianni is.

In about 8-16 weeks, they will be crucifying him as the worst coach since Rich Kotite.

…they should be taking pitchforks and torches to Howie Roseman’s house over this when Sirianni fails miserably, but it won’t matter. The owner will keep his buddy around no matter what happens.

On to the actual game…

 

Dynasty/Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- I have to start with my Najee Harris (2-10-0, 1-9-0/2) notes because I’m the leader of/the only person in the resistance of Najee as an elite, franchise RB. Again, I know he’ll get 20+ touches a game and will thus be an ace for Fantasy Football. I’m just saying – this is not a top talent that I see. Not yet anyways.

Najee didn’t play as much here as the HOF game. He took a couple touches and did what he does best – run between the tackles and tacks on 2+ yards to runs because he’s tough to tackle. I would have been impressed with his tough running had not every single Steelers RB that came in after him didn’t do the same – big open holes to run through and they all looked good/the Eagles run defense was so weak that even the homer analysts were harping on it.

If Najee has some space, and gets that big body going…he’ll pick up decent chunks of yards. But you could say that about most every running back in this game or in this league. Jordan Howard (1-3-0) started in this game for Philly, and you can’t tell the difference between the two in running style (except JoHo has better vision/instincts) – but one will have an offense built for him (attempted) and the other may not make the team.

If Najee were on the Browns or Broncos, etc., if he were with the top O-Lines…then I could see a big 2021 from Najee, but the Steelers have a very shaky O-Line outlook, a complete overhaul on the O-Line from last year/the last 5+ years – so it may be a mild disaster to try and get the running game going with a plodder RBV and no blocking. A bad O-Line is the great neutralizer of all things…

 

 -- Jalen Hurts (3-7 for 54 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs, 1-4-0) looked fine as the starter. He escapes/evades pressure like rare few QBs of the past several years can. Hurts looks like if Deshaun Watson had spent all his Massage Envy hours deadlifting huge weights instead…Hurts is so muscular/strong and he just glides out of attempted sacker’s reach with ease and extends play and makes nice throws.

Hurts hit on passes of 7, 34, and 13 yards with nice touch and placement. His incompletions were not as pretty. Hurts doesn’t throw blindly into danger, but he’s not the greatest-looking pocket passer either…he looks mildly uncomfortable in the pocket, whereas he looks near majestic moving out of the pocket. He’s a ‘C-‘ pocket passer, and an ‘A’ passer/runner weapon when he is moving around from danger or just on purpose.

The people who want to dismiss Hurts will see his incompletions and deem him as un-Brady-like and think he sucks. What people should see promise in is his ability to play on the move…he’s one of the best in the league at it.

I do fear that Nick Sirianni is too stupid to realize it and wants him to be a pocket passer more, but I also think that what Hurts does is mostly off script so while the Eagles swirl down the drain, Hurts might pile on the FF output as everything collapses.

 

 -- Hurts played two series, then Joe Flacco (10-17 for 178 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) came in…and threw a basic pass to Quez Watkins (1-79-1/2), who then just took the ball in stride and just ran past Steelers defenders who had the angles on him, but Quez is so fast that he just flew by them.

Watkins is going to be the starter over Jalen Reagor (2-20-0/3) at this point – another Howie Roseman special…wasting a 1st-round pick on Reagor.

Roseman may force his patsy head coach to start DeVonta-Reagor, but it’s obvious that it should be DeVonta-Quez with Reagor in and out of the game as a #3 WR. The Eagles will run a lot of two TE sets, with two WRs, so Quez working more than Reagor as the #2 WR is only a matter of time.

Actually, it may already be – Watkins was in early and scored his TD and went out of the game to rest/enjoy the rest of the contest. Reagor was playing with the schmoes into the 2nd-half. Reagor is dying off. Quez is ascending…and is a great weapon for Hurts doing improvising things.

 

 -- The Philly TE report is a log jam…

Zach Ertz (2-20-0/3) is starting like normal, along with Dallas Goedert (1-34-0/1). I expected Ertz to be gone already…and the Eagles expected Ertz to be gone already. The Eagles can pick up $5M in cap space if they move Ertz/dump him/cut him…which I still believe they will, but the rest of the league sees him being released before the season start, so they aren’t trying hard to trade for him. The compensatory draft pick after being signed from his release might be the best Philly can do.

Tyree Jackson (2-32-0/5) made his debut as a tight end, and he looked very natural…the former QB turned TE. But with Ertz-Goedert, there’s limited chance for Jackson to see meaningful time…plus, Richard Rodgers (2-18-0/4) was brought back by Philly, and he’s a very solid TE after some body transformation the past 2 years (slimmed and leaned down and got faster/better in the passing game).

Something has to give with the Eagles TE situation. I have several thoughts on these Philly tight ends after watching this contest, and it’s some pretty important/radical stuff for Dynasty/Fantasy – so we’ll get into that with the ‘Subscriber Extra’ notes on this game…available in the Draft Guide and/or Dynasty/Best Ball area within 24 hours or so after these game notes post.

 

 -- As far as the Steelers throwing the ball…

Mason Rudolph (8-9 for 77 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) looked as good as I’ve seen him look, and that’s still not great. He started and played a few series with mostly starters.

The great Dwayne Haskins (16-22 for 161 yards, 1 TDs/0 INT) took over from there and did his usual – look good one simple throw and then inexplicable throw the next toss, and back-and-forth he goes. Haskins cannot read defenses or make tight window throws regularly…he throws into traffic/trouble with regularity. He’s never going to make it…no matter how much cheerleading the media does for him.

 

 -- The Steelers QBs were very efficient in this game, and it may have spoken to the fact that the Eagles defense looked individually talented but poorly-coached schematically. The Eagles sloppy play did allow for 29 completions at a 78.3% clip, so we did get to see the younger Steelers WRs working. And I gotta say, the Steelers have a lot of good/decent young/no-name WRs that they will mostly have to cut…but it does allow for a James Washington trade any day now.

I guarantee, Washington is getting moved…because the Steelers have the depth at WR to do it.

Rookie Rico Bussey (4-45-0/4) caught my eye the most out of the low level WR group. He’s not a superstar, but he’s very solid and shows nice athleticism. With upside The Steelers have something here to develop.

Anthony Johnson (2-38-1/2) was terrific at the University of Buffalo (with his QB Tyree Jackson), and has bounced around the league a bit as a UDFA, but he can play. He has great hands/concentration for catches with a limited athleticism but solid size. He’s a nice NFL #4-5 WR who could start in a pinch and be OK.

Cody White (5-39-0/7) is a solid WR prospect with size as well. And he has caught my attention for two weeks now – he’s promising to be an NFL receiver, but probably as more of a backup not starter/star.

 

 -- Pat Freiermuth (1-6-0/1) got his first catch of the preseason. He looked ‘as expected’. Struggling to block early in his career but has reliable hands and gives good effort. He’ll be OK enough long term.

 

 -- The Steelers kept rotating in RBs who just sliced through the Eagles defense mostly…

Jaylen Samuels (10-45-1, 1-17-0/1) was having his way at times, and it made me mad that he doesn’t get more opportunities in the regular season. But then he caught his lone target of the game, for 17 yards, and it looked great at first…but then I thought it was the end of his Steelers career as the play ended.

Samuels caught a little dump pass, then broke out of a tackle and turned a 3-4 yards play into 17 yards…which is great, but after he broke the tackle and took off downfield (in the clear by 4-5+ yards) he was running and defenders were closing in, but instead of trying to accelerate and blow through somebody with all this space – Samuels instead visibly slowed up and headed out of bounds with no one within 1-2 yards of him.

Najee would be allowed to head out of bounds for preservation, but not a guy who is fighting to make a team like Samuels. The memory of several solid runs by Jaylen are wiped out in my mind by the ‘dive’ he took. He is not fighting hard enough for his NFL existence, and I’ve seen him do that a few times the past few years. Sad.

Pete Guerriero (7-20-0) came in late and looked like the most promising of the low level Steelers backs. Guerriero was a star for Monmouth but got overlooked in the NFL Draft. He ran a 4.49 40-time (Pro Day) in 2020, after a nice college career. He looked like he was fighting for his NFL life…not like lazy Samuels. Guerriero is tough, shifty and gives a good effort. Not a star but competent.

 

 -- The Eagles backfield has bigger names, but no one jumped out as anything better than the Steelers low level RBs…

Jason Huntley (4-15-0, 1-4-0/3) is supposed to be this 2021 camp sensation, and he flipped and flopped around the field like a fish out of water…dropping passes, and turning the wrong way on things. Not impressed.

Kenneth Gainwell (2-14-0, 2-16-0/4) debuted, and he looked OK/competent. But Sanders-Scott-Howard still seems to be ahead of him. Eventually, Gainwell will have a satellite back role. It might be 2022+.

I was surprised to see Kerryon Johnson (2-12-0) come in very late, like a nobody, to get his work. No special treatment for Kerryon here. He looked fine/typical Kerryon…straight ahead runner with limited athleticism. But his spot in the rotation here led me to believe he might not be making this team.

 

 -- The IDP report…

I still can’t take my eyes off of Steelers rookie DE Quincy Roche (2 tackles, 0.5 sacks). He is beating his man and getting near/to the QB almost every pass rush. I want to see it against 1st-team blockers though. He’s always working late/2nd-half in the rotation this preseason. Very promising two weeks in a row now…a near ‘wow’ guy so far for me, but I know he’s not working against the best blocking either yet.

Eagles rookie CB Zech McPherson (4 tackles) is promising, and might be forcing his way into the starting lineup. He’s really sound/good at covering receivers and is a willing tackler. Better than the Steelers supposed starter Cam Sutton (1 tackle) – Sutton was beaten like a drum in this game, by 1st-team WRs and then down into the Bussey-White group for Pittsburgh. If the Steelers do not acquire a C.J. Henderson type CB, they are going to be in huge trouble in the secondary.

The Steelers did acquire Joe Schobert, which is a good thing for Pittsburgh for sure…the Robert Spillane (3 tackles) experiment has ended due to his inability to cover in the passing game. What the Jags are doing, I don’t know – but it seems like they are already dumping/punting on 2021. Which they should…just build for the future.

The Eagles have some bright hopes at ILB themselves. Alex Singleton (7 tackles) returned from COVID and was all over. That guy is going to start for sure, alongside Eric Wilson. Singleton the run stopper and Wilson a jack of all trades. But one of the ‘flash’ players of this game was Eagles rookie LB Patrick Johnson (6 tackles, 1 TFL). Johnson was a nice college OLB/pass rusher type…but he played more interior in this game, and looks like a natural – a 6’2”/240 guy with 4.6+ speed and sub-7.0 three-cone…not great for EDGE but really promising working the inside. He has great instincts and nice acceleration to the ball. He’ll be rising on our next Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings.

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

11 September 2021

A deeper look, on the fly, at Ty'Son Williams from BYU to Baltimore...

R.C. FISCHER

FFM

10 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Bucs 31, Cowboys 29

 

When the Bucs jumped out to a 7-0 lead, it seemed like this was going to the Buccaneers night by double-digits – defending champs in their home/NFL opener, the crowd on fire, Dallas limping in minus Zack Martin and everyone unsure what to expect from Dak in his return to live game play off shoulder issues and last year’s horribly broken ankle.

From that point on, Dallas outscored Tampa 29-24…but the Cowboys ended up losing the game in the final seconds on a short field goal.

There’s two ‘credits’ to give out here…

‍

1) Credit Tom Brady for saving the day.

The Bucs defense was erratic and ineffective too much of the game. The Bucs had no real run game. It was Brady making some excellent, accurate money throws that kept Tampa Bay in this…and got them the win.

The more I watch Brady, at ages 43 and 44, the more the Brady v. Belichick question continues to make me wonder just how good a coach Belichick would’ve been without Brady. Would Belichick have been ‘average’…and fired after 4-5 seasons in New England and then surfaced elsewhere for another 2-4 year stint before being given the boot again? Would he have just been ‘good’…more wins than losses but not dominant/a legend? We’ll never know…although what we’ve seen of 2020 and 2021 so far, it’s not making me feel like Belichick was ‘the reason’.

It was Bill Belichick’s idea to move on from Tom Brady. It was Belichick who wanted to replace him years earlier for Jimmy Garoppolo. It was Belichick who kept Tom in a quasi-box too often. Those are not signs of ‘a genius’…but let’s see what he does in 2021 with Mac Jones, if he’s such a genius. How can chasing away the league’s most valuable player, of all-time, be overlooked in Belichick’s coaching resume?

 

2) Credit Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore for smart game planning…yep, I said it.

Dallas was undermanned, under-gunned for this fight…going to the defending champs in a home opener, and yet they almost pulled this off. Dallas was the more energetic team, after they took the first few punches from Tampa and responded with shots of their own – they gained confidence from the 2nd-quarter on and were the aggressor and better team in the second half, but Brady has a pact for his soul…so, of course the Bucs/Brady won last second. Nothing Dallas can do to reverse the supernatural, tried as they might.

McCarthy/Moore put a perfect game plan together to help Dak get his feet under him early. They kept it simple…short and quick. Tampa Bay really never adjusted to it. And then as Dak got more settled in, the Bucs secondary couldn’t really keep up.

Dak looked ‘off’ at times, especially early on, but he rallied -- and really put his foot down to let us all know that he’s one of the 10 best QB talents in the NFL. It was an MVP-like moment…but because they lost, doesn’t feel like it totally.

And also, credit McCarthy/Moore for recognizing Ezekiel Elliott isn’t that special and thus does not need an offense built around him constantly going headfirst into the best run defense in the league. The more I saw Tony Pollard starting drives and getting touches, the more I stood to applaud McCarthy/Moore. It is not easy to move away from a fan-favorite, highly overpaid running back – but McCarthy said (in the offseason) he would split the RB role more this season…and split it, he did.

Given the situation going into this game – this feels like a win that was really a loss for Tampa Bay, and vice-versa a loss that really feels like a win for Dallas.

With months to prepare…with a raucous home field…with the Zack Martin injury – Tampa Bay got out-schemed and out-efforted by Dallas. I don’t see a repeat Super Bowl team with Tampa…I see the wild card team that got hot/lucky late in the season and into the playoffs. But as long as Brady continues to exist…the Bucs have to be the NFC favorites.

Credit to McCarthy, I guess…because I also saw the grittiest Dallas team I’ve seen in a while. It’s not going to be so easy for Washington to cruise to the NFC East title if Dak is upright all season. If I were re-doing my Faux season 2021 simulation again, I would have Dallas as a playoff team for sure.

It was Week 1, so we learned various things about ‘intentions’ of these teams for FF 2021…or, so we think. Let’s get into what we think we saw for Fantasy and discuss whether it is a blip or full future reality.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Let’s start with analyzing what we thought about the Bucs’ offense going into the season, and then seeing how it lined up with what we saw Week 1…let’s see where we were ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ about preseason assumptions and how they played out this opening game:

 

RIGHT: Tom Brady (32-50 for 379 yards, 4 TDs/2 INTs) is going to throw the ball a lot…he’s going to chase all the records, seasonal and career.

This wasn’t a unique theory, but really leaning into it set the tone for various projections down the line is going to be wise. Brady looks like he did in 2020…and in 2019. There is no age effect happening to him.

The Dallas defense registered no sacks, no TFLs, and just two QB hits – one of the best pass protection O-Lines in the game means even more juice for Brady 2021.

 

RIGHT: If Brady was going to put up big numbers, then we believed so too was Antonio Brown (5-121-1/7, 1-6-0) who we’d been pushing as on par/better than Evans-Godwin.

I can’t say this game result altered any opinion that Brown might be the most important Fantasy WR here. Brady came out throwing and Brown was his obvious favorite look. As the game shifted/Dallas made changes, Brady started to use Gronk/Godwin more because it was there for the taking…and he took it. Brown is set for a nice year with heavy pass volume Brady.

When we pushed for Antonio Brown’s sweet undervalue in the early summer, AB was not a top 35-40 WR rank/ADP. He kept climbing in August when more people started to see glimpses of it. Many of you got Brown 8-11th+ round in redrafts throughout the summer. You’re going to be happy with your ROI here.

 

WRONG: I thought Mike Evans (3-24-0/6) would be the one ‘other’ Tampa WR to have aside from AB for FF 2021. I thought Chris Godwin (9-105-1/14) was overpriced as he would be rendered to WR2-3 status as Brown saw top targets and Evans saw heavy TD action…nothing against Godwin, but that there wouldn’t be enough to go around to support his ADP.

It wasn’t pretty (because Godwin butchered a couple passes and fumbled into the end zone after a catch), but Godwin saw a bunch of targets…especially as the game went on and as more coverage attention was paid to Antonio. I’m not saying this type of stat line is now Godwin’s likely result every week ahead, but as Brady passes heavy there’s room for more to party…and Godwin looks more like a WR1.5-2.0 than WR2-2.5.

I’m not so much ‘wowed’ by a good game from Godwin here as I am consistently surprised by how ‘out of it’ Mike Evans looks…and it’s not new, it was a carryover from 2020. I keep thinking it could change, that Evans will not be ignored in most games…but we have to make the call – Evans is the dud of this trio, it appears, since Brady has come around. If I re-order my TB WR pecking order it would be Brown-Godwin-Evans, not Brown-Evans-Godwin.

 

RIGHT: The Tampa Bay plan running the ball is a Leonard Fournette (9-32-0, 5-27-0/7) rotation with Ronald Jones (4-14-0)…and it’s going to leave you frustrated owning one or the other for Fantasy.

Fournette won this round because RoJo fumbled in the 1st-half and was benched the rest of the game. Fournette can bobble screens leading to a pick…and Godwin can fumble into the end zone and almost cost them the game – but if Jones fumbles, he’s banished to hell. It happened last year too…RoJo is just an Arians trigger for anger/wrath for some reason.

So, next week everyone will be sky high on Fournette and down on RoJo, but Bruce Arians will then get Jones back going mentally with extra touches…and if RoJo responds, you’ll see Jones as much as Fournette and neither will be anything big or predictable for FF. Arians did that last year, rotated in-and-out and went ‘hot hand’ and punished things that made him mad…but it was mostly unpredictable and unfruitful for Fantasy when they’re both active.

Fournette is in a better spot now…because if Jones fumbles again, then Leonard is in a really great spot for the moment. It could happen to Fournette the following week, that he fumbles and gets the sour treatment. I wouldn’t want either back for FF 2021.

 

WRONG (so far): I knew Fournette-Jones would be an every-other-series split rotation thing, but I was counting on Gio Bernard (2-12-0/3) being in for every 3rd-down and in the hurry up offense scenarios…and, thus, being PPR viable. That didn’t happen here.

The game plan started out with Gio as the 3rd-down guy, but then Tampa was scoring so fast early on there was no need for 3rd-down dump passes…nor were there many 3rd-downs in general in the 1st-half. I could live with that being the cause of the lack of touches, but then when 3rd-downs started to happen more for TB in the 2nd-half, it was Fournette left out there and Gio a total ghost. I was shocked. Was Gio hurt from ankle sprain still? Nope. On the final drive, in the hurry up, Gio was on the field doing the James White thing…but it was too little, too late.

I could say it’s just one week -- but it was an important week. It shows intention. The Bucs O-C did not get Gio out there every time he could/should have. Is it just this one week outlier? Is this just going to be so spotty and unpredictable on when the game flow goes to needing Gio that he’s not much of anything but a plausible guy to have during the BYE weeks/tight RB options out there?

I’m heavily vested in Gio from redrafts…cheaply vested, but heavily (by count) vested in having Gio on my FF teams in PPR (and some half-PPR) as a for-depth option I hoped broke out into that sneaky James White RB1.5 in PPR dude who cost me little to acquire. Now, I’m wondering if I’m going to ditch him Tuesday in the waiver wire chase.

I’m going to more hold on than not, I think…I don’t want to overreact to one week -- but this just got onto seriously shaky ground.

Most of what Tampa showed in preseason glimpses overall came true here this game…except Gio was ghosted by the coaching staff, where he was seeing a bunch of passes with Brady in the preseason games with the 1st-team – and I’m shocked by it not carrying over here. Gio is not the type of guy that would get this type of ignored/disrespected treatment you’d think. He is the best 3rd-down back they have…and he wasn’t being treated as such here. However, in the critical final drive…Gio was out there the whole time and made a great diving catch for a 1st-down and looked just like the James White we hoped for the whole drive. We saw a glimpse of it, but it’s on shaky ground right now with me.

 

NEITHER RIGHT/WRONG: Rob Gronkowski (8-90-2/8) had a big game. I’m not shocked. We projected him top 7-8 for the week because of the Cowboys linebackers in coverage. I didn’t think he’d be the #1 TE of the week, so that’s wrong…but we thought this was a good spot, and that was right.

Gronk was quietly going along at first, but then Brady started to expose what was ripe for the picking as Dallas showed their hand…and Brady picked it, and Gronk delivered. I didn’t think Gronk looked special…he was just good/comfortable with Brady throwing to him in the right spots on the money.

Gronk will be a TE1 in non-PPR this year…and likely a top TE1 in PPG rankings for much of the 1st-half of the season because of this hot start boosting him. If Gronk catches 2 passes for 13 yards and no TDs next week, it wouldn’t shock me. I didn’t see Gronk as like this major piece/high scorer for the season…it was just the right player against the right opponent/matchup. But Gronk has mostly good matchups in the 1st-half of the season and then it turns much more difficult as the season wears on.

 

 -- What about the Cowboys in this game?

 

WRONG: I was more inclined to sit it out on Dak Prescott (42-58 for 403 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) in redrafts. I like him as a talent, but why invest heavily into him with his preseason shoulder issue and offseason ankle rehab. You could’ve taken Tom Brady later in a redraft later, bypassing earlier Dak. I’m not disappointed by the decision to bypass Dak…but he showed that he’ll fight through just about anything. So, my reason to pause doesn’t look like an ‘I told you so moment’. It was a worry that didn’t necessarily need to be worried about.

But I still wouldn’t chase Dak or lament missing out – because contrary to Cris Collinsworth telling us everything was fine with Dak 2-3 throws in, anyone with eyes could see that Dak was not planting and firing like his old self for about the first half of football here. Dak was floating passes that wobbled down the field. He was accurate and making good decisions, for the most part, but had no real drive or zip on his throws.

Once Dak got blasted by a Bucs D-Lineman somewhere early 3rd-quarter (if I recall, possibly late 2nd-Q), it was like it shook the rust off and/or cobwebs out and Dak suddenly had more energy, more zip on his passes. It’s like he needed to get hit and know that he was OK, and then glimpses of the old Dak started to appear.

Still, there were a lot of ‘gingerly’ throws, soft tosses that concerned me…but 10 days off until Week 2, extra rest/healing -- Dak may be 110% for Week 2 and beyond. Some of Dak’s throws to the middle were inexplicably bad in this game, but mostly overall he was fine.

And credit to Mike McCarthy and/or Kellen Moore – they set a game plan early to allow Dak to get rid of the ball quickly and safely. Dak was throwing mostly bubble screens and comeback/timing passes early on because he didn’t have that drive in his throws…smart of McCarthy/Moore to set him up for success given the physical issues/concerns/rust/whatever…or even just helping him work past the mental issues coming off all the injuries to deal with.

Bucs D-C Todd Bowles, of course, did not adjust to this early on and Dak just kept soft-tossing his way up and down the field. Once Bowles started to bring more pressure to the receivers and to the pass rush, then Dak started to struggle for a drive – but then after he got hit hard after a throw and survived it -- he started getting his legs under him and beating the Bucs defense more like his old self. Bowles called the exact wrong game and changed concepts at the exact wrong time…or the Bucs just aren’t that good of a defense/they lost too many DBs before and during the game and got exposed. They played great against the run as they do, but then got carved up by simplicity in the Dallas passing game – you can’t have a rusty, early-tentative Dak running you ragged in the passing game with CeeDee Lamb (7-104-1/15) dropping every other throw to help you out. I thought the Bucs D might harass Dak early and often…they never really did. Dak made it look easy.

It’s hard to believe that this pretty-much-the-same Bucs defense crushed Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl…and then pretty well embarrassed themselves in this game by letting a rusty Dak soft toss his way through them for most of the game.  

If CeeDee Lamb were a really good WR…Dallas wins this game going away.

 

RIGHT: Amari Cooper (13-139-2/16) was a discount high-end WR1 going for WR1.5-2.0 redraft value too often this preseason. I got nervous too about Dak’s part in this equation for Amari in early August but once Dak was cleared we were back solid with Amari if/when it fell to us 3rd, sometimes 4th-round of redrafts. Cooper is a top 5 Fantasy WR when Dak is playing.

 

RIGHT: Avoiding Ezekiel Elliott (11-33-0, 2-6-0/2), for the lofty price, taking Mike McCarthy at his word…that he was going to involve Tony Pollard (3-14-0, 4-29-0/4) more…was the right read of the situation. Not that Zeke is dead, but he may be more RB1.5 than he is top 3-5 no-doubt elite RB.

Pollard was starting several series…not just rotating in on 3rd-downs or some bit player. If you didn’t know better, you’d think Pollard was their most dangerous back…and he might be. I know it was the great TB run defense squashing the run here, but I took note of how often Pollard was starting a series and how involved he was…and it’s not great news for Elliott owners.

Elliott is not dead…he’s just starting to move away from being FF-royalty at running back. His name/reputation is bigger than his reality. He’ll have his big games ahead, I’m sure…and he’ll likely be an RB1 level performer/scorer for the season. But he’s not THAT GUY anymore…he’s just a really good Fantasy RB to have, not like a ‘best in class’ option anymore.

Credit to Mike McCarthy/Kellen Moore for seeing they needed to diversify off 100% usage of the overrated Elliott and starting to mix in the suddenly more (differently) dangerous Tony Pollard.

 

BE CAREFUL: I’m not a big fan of CeeDee Lamb (7-104-1/15), and he showed why several times in this game – drops-o-rama. He’s just an average/good WR who is not a game changer, but if he’s on the field in a high-volume passing game, he’s gonna get some numbers. He’s not incompetent…just he’s treated like a god, and he’s not better than Russell Gage on an NFL field.

Lamb was struggling early, and then the Bucs lost CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (2 tackles) to injury and later Mike Edwards (4 tackles) came up limping…and all that combined with Michael Gallup (4-36-0/7) going down (who was working better than Lamb) and then Amari Cooper started getting extra attention – so, Lamb was there and got throws…not because he’s a force, but because it was there…like Brady-to-Godwin. Tampa went into a ‘Let Lamb try and beat us’ mode as they focused on Amari with Gallup out. It’s not a compliment when your opponent rules you as the weak hand they’ll not over-focus on.

So, my anti-Lamb stance looks bad after his nice FF scoring week…but let’s see how this plays out. Lamb will probably be fine by existing around Dak with Amari getting so much attention. But I think he’s more WR3 talent getting WR2 work than a future/star WR1 hopeful.

 

I GUESS, RIGHT?: Not a big deal item, but it was a split TE role/rotation for Dallas…Dalton Schultz (6-45-0/6) is the lead with Blake Jarwin (3-20-0/4) rotating in a lot…and neither exciting for Fantasy production but they’ll have a good game/TD every so often. If you need either one of these guys this season…things aren’t going well for you at TE for Fantasy. Schultz is the better FF option of the two now.

 

Other non-offense/skill position notes…

 

-- Micah Parsons (7 tackles, 1 PD) looked a little lost, got burned by experienced players on plays early on like Isaiah Simmons did last year for Arizona. The difference is, Simmons kept getting burned and got benched quickly last year. On the other hand, Parsons settled in and got better each quarter as he got his feet underneath him.

Parsons showed all the promise here, and being the defensive play caller against Tom Brady, as a rookie in his very first game…only good things ahead for Parsons.

Side note…when Parsons decides to cover an RB or TE on a passing route, forget it. It’s not open. Parsons covered Gio a few times and Parsons consumed him.

The addition of Parsons to the starting lineup had an affect on the other Dallas LBs…

Leighton Vander Esch (2 tackles) back from his injury plagued 2020…just two tackles. Wildly overrated Jaylon Smith (4 tackles), just two solo tackles. However, Keanu Neal (6 tackles) just now (2021) shifted to LB from safety…as many tackles as Vander Esch-Smith combined. Things are changing, for the better, with the Dallas defense it looks like – just a tough opening season matchup…and they almost pulled the upset.

 

 -- The preseason reports of Greg Zuerlein (3/5 FGs, 2/3 XPs) having some physical issues of concern to start the season…I guess they were not joking. Z missed an easy field goal and extra point early on, and it looked like Dallas would be shopping for a new kicker Friday morning. However, credit to Zuerlein…he rallied back and made the rest of his kicks, including what they hoped would be a game winner with 2-minutes left.

Still, I would be looking at alternatives at FF kicker if you’re rolling with Z right now. You shouldn’t be, but if you are…look at viable alternatives ASAP.

 

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SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:

 

64 = Godwin

61 = Evans

42 = A Brown

 

42 = Fournette

17 = Gio

06 = RoJo

 

57 = Gronk

18 = Brate

06 = OJ Howard

 

21 = Tryon (debut)

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70 = Elliott

20 = Pollard

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57 = Schultz

48 = Jarwin

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