R.C. Fischer

FFM

12 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Saints 38, Bucs 3

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

What happened to the Bucs in this game? The narrative going in was…Tampa Bay has a great defense, Tom Brady is humming, and Gronk is getting up to speed, and NOW they get Chris Godwin back AND the debut of Antonio Brown…plus the Saints defense looks porous and Drew Brees is not the guy he’s been in the past…plus the game at Tampa Bay on SNF. Was the spread -17.0 for TB, I cannot remember?

The Saints covered the spread if it were New Orleans -30.0 going in. Actually, the Saints covered a -30.0 spread by halftime.

What happened here?

A few thoughts…

1) Whenever something looks like an absolute guarantee, in the NFL, you should go the other way.

NO WAY the Bucs lose to Saints, or if they do…they would never lose by 30+!

NO WAY the Steelers won’t crush Dallas with Garrett Gilbert at QB! (that game was Dallas leading until 2+ minutes left).

NO WAY the Chiefs would lose to the Panthers! (Carolina missed a game winning FG last second)

NO WAY the Patriots lose to the Jets on MNF! (the Pats were getting beat all game and then Flacco handed them a win, last second).

If you took the dog in each of those games, you went (4-0) on your bets.

Week 10…NO WAY Jacksonville can hang with Green Bay at Lambeau. And NO WAY these Saints could lose to the 49ers.

Guess what way you should bet those two Week 10 contests?

 

2) The Saints are better coached, more disciplined than the Bucs.

In big games -- Sean Payton is an asset. Bruce Arians is a liability. Payton is a planner and a schemer. Arians is an emotional screamer who manages his team like he’s doing a standup gig Live from the Apollo. He thinks he’s old school Chris Rock with a dash of Andrew Dice Clay. Football is an emotional game, so Arians’ ‘cursing a lot’ way has some merit – but it didn’t work here. But now watch them come out on fire this week. And if they meet again this season, watch TB destroy the Saints.

 

3) The Bucs have no identity on offense besides ‘What does Brady want?’.

Brady isn’t his old self. He crumbles under pass rush pressure more and more these days. He has so many new weapons to throw which looks cool on paper but there’s no cohesion…yet…and maybe never will this season.

This Bucs roster is like a fantasy team, but it could just be a collection of talent that doesn’t fit/work/have cohesion. The Saints aren’t as sexy/interesting, but their core has been together for years.

This may turn out to be one of those ‘good losses’ for Tampa. They’re better as the hungry, disrespected underdog than as the accepted/adored top team – Arians is more comfortable leading ragtag underdogs. This devastating loss might be the hard reboot the Bucs needed. If they lose to Carolina this week, then they might be in way more internal disarray than anyone realized. If they blowout the Panthers, with impunity, this week then there is hope for them for a title run to the Super Bowl.

The Saints are now (6-2) and in the driver’s seat for the NFC South with two wins booked over the Bucs this season…and an easy schedule ahead. 11-12 wins is probably where the Saints land, and the edge in the NFC South.

The Bucs are now (6-3) and not done for the NFC South title, but they gotta get a game ahead of the Saints to avoid the tiebreaker. They have a path to 11-12 wins, but more likely 10-11 wins and a wild card.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- The lead story was supposed to be…the return of the mega WRs. And, per usual, what we all expected went the other way.

Antonio Brown (3-31-0/5) didn’t start but sprinkled in quickly and then the game got out of hand and he was in a lot and played 78% of the snaps. Brown looked fine on the field. Still had the zip in his legs. Made a real nice catch over-the-middle that got a ‘wow’ from everyone watching.

However, there’s now so many ‘mouths to feed’ on the Bucs, Arians is having a hard time managing it. I think he’s going to throttle Antonio Brown back this week to make a point. That fear is on the table for a lower AB snap count game this week.

There’s trouble in paradise with Mike Evans (4-64-0/6) and Tom Brady…to the point a rift is growing with Evans and the Bucs organization. When they’re winning it’s all OK, but this game Antonio Brown was all the talk, and AB walked in and saw heavy snaps and good targeting…while Evans had his typical scraps from Brady game again. That issue all season of low targeting PLUS losing by 30+/getting embarrassed on national TV – I think Mike Evans is on the verge of blowing up. His frustration is high and rumor of that is seeping out of the TB locker room.

Arians has to manage Evans’ hurt ego, and then Chris Godwin’s (3-41-0/6) got a growing beef as well – all these top dog WRs from 2019 are now junk WR3s in fantasy terms…and that won’t sit well with them, personally. This season is costing Godwin future money…because Antonio Brown is now so special in one week of joining the team? All while ‘special treatment Brady’ walks in and grabs Gronk and AB as his BFF’s to thrust into the limelight while he freezes out Evans-Godwin. A fracture in the WR room is forming, no matter what they tell you on TV about how none of them care about their targets – that’s B.S., and especially BS when you just lost in humiliating fashion.

AB…Evans…Godwin…how can you project them for Week 10…or 11…or 12? They’re producing like WR3s under Brady suddenly. There’s only one football to go around.

 

 -- Quietly, Michael Thomas (5-51-0/6) returned for the Saints and no one seemed to notice! All anyone is talking about is ‘What happened to the Bucs…and what was it like with Brady-to-AB?’

Thomas looked fine, got right into the action…but this game got out of hand so fast they were able to pull back the reins on Thomas’s play time – he worked just 55% of the snaps because he wasn’t needed to be out there. Antonio Brown played more of his team’s snaps coming off the street after two years away than returning mega-star WR Michael Thomas.

It creates a ‘buy low’ moment here – Thomas has been missing for weeks and then returns to a ‘meh’ FF game. His vibe is down, but he’s still that Thomas from 2019, or close to it. This return game for him didn’t need to be a star/heavy target. An excellent window to buy him as a WR1.5 from a frustrated redraft owner.

 

 -- Tom Brady (22-38 for 209 yards, 0 TDs/3 INTs) had a bad game. Prior to this he had 17 TDs/1 INT in his last 6 games. Let’s not get hysterical. The situation is great for him…he has a million options to throw to, all-elite ones.

It was a bad night/bad game in the rain against a fired-up opponent who prior couldn’t stop anyone’s passing game. Things happen sometimes.

 

 -- Because they got down so quick, the Bucs abandoned the run game…so Ronald Jones (3-9-0, 3-9-0/4) was not needed to do his normal work.

Leonard Fournette (1-0-0, 6-41-0/6) benefitted from the all-pass Bucs offensive needs.

The Bucs are going to run a lot vs. Carolina this week. RoJo and Fournette could be RB2s this week or better. Their FF worlds will be dictated by game script/situations. They also have RB1 activity being split in two…creating two RB2-3s week-to-week. It is what it is. Most NFL backfields are becoming lead RBs getting 8-14 touches in games.

 

 -- Taysom Hill produced…

2-for-2 passing for 48 yards.

7 carries for 54 yards

One catch for 21 yards

9+ non-PPR points and 10+ PPR…and given the state of FF tight ends right now – he’s a TE1 threat week-to-week, if he qualifies in your league for TE.

His touch counts are growing every week. He could be a top 5 fantasy TE just off of 2-3 catches and 3-5 carries and 1-2 passes a game…as a TE.

 

 -- Two more sacks for Saints DE Trey Hendrickson (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks)…now 7.5 sacks on the season in 8 games. I thought Marcus Davenport (1 PD) returning might cut into his stats, but Hendrickson isn’t slowing down.

 

 -- Do we hate the Bucs-DST now…and LOVE the Saints-DST?

Prior to this game, for the season (Wks 1-8), the Bucs-DST was #5 in FF PPG (FPros scoring)  and rising while the Saints were #20 overall.

Does it all flip now because of one game on TV Week 9?

The Bucs are fine. A top defensive unit that had a bad game against a top offense.

The Saints might turn a corner. They traded for Kwon Alexander, who could start working Week 10. Maybe they’re coming into their own, but it’s not a sure thing. The week prior to this the Bears moved the ball against them second half and almost beat them in OT. Prior to that the Panthers had no issues with them. Prior to that the Chargers rolled through them. Prior to that the Lions scored 29 points on them. Prior to that the Packers dropped 37 on them. Prior to that the Raiders dropped 34 on them.

The Saints-DST season comes down to…crushing the Bucs Week 1 and Week 9, and everything in-between was bad.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

47 = Godwin

43 = Evans

39 = AB

19 = Miller

06 = Ty Johnson

 

33 = Fournette

16 = RoJo

 

45 = Tre’Quan

40 = Mk Thomas

22 = Emm Sanders

 

29 = Trautman (Starters rested later in the game)

26 = Cook

19 = T Hill

R.C. Fischer

FFM

12 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Steelers 24, Cowboys 19

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

This game was 19-9 Dallas to start the 4th-quarter. Time of possession was with Dallas. Everything seemed to go the Cowboys’ way and the Steelers were just off. Ben was hobbling around on a bad knee sprain/strain. All looked lost, but Ben, as he does, led the comeback (limping around) and the Steelers posted three scores/17 points in the 4th-quarter to win it 24-19, the game winning score a TD pass with 2:19 left. It was a gutsy win by the Steelers…and another game where Dallas played well enough, considering their circumstances, but fell short in the end (prior game they were sticking with Philly with Ben DiNucci as their QB, but fell off in the end/couldn’t maintain).

Dallas has now lost five in-a-row and six of their last 7. You want to say their season is over, but they might only be 1.5 games out of first after their Week 10 BYE. Dallas has a path to 5-6 wins and being ‘in it’ (the NFC East) to the end but they are now the worst team in the NFC East…too many injuries, and such horrific coaching it defies all logic that they will win the NFC East – but it is possible still.

Pittsburgh stays undefeated (8-0). They’re good but not ‘undefeated good’; not best team in football good…just very good. Probably a (13-3) type finish and they make it to the Final Four but fall short of the Super Bowl. They are not totally assured of winning the AFC South either. Baltimore still has a path. But we project them (13-3) and the AFC North champs is the most likely outcome right now…a #2/#3 seed for the playoffs.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- When it’s a Steelers’ game, we have to start out talking about the WRs.

Here are my notes…

1) By halftime, I was getting a flood of messages about how terrible Diontae/Claypool are and how much the person hates them and some disliked me for even suggesting them…ever. In the 1st-half, the Steelers barely had the ball, and they were ineffective when they had it. Not much stats 1st-half, maybe one catch for either Diontae or Claypool.

In the 2nd-half, Ben had to step it up and suddenly we ended with double-digit targets for both Diontae/Claypool and solid PPR efforts in the end….and no one contacted me to apologize for any of the prior messages. Which is my normal life every week for about 4 months a year.

2) Chase Claypool (8-69-0/13) was open for a 51-yard TD pass that Ben threw to him on the money downfield, but CC got grabbed by the CB a bit to slow him down (no PI call) right before it landed and the ball ended up 2-3 inches away off his finger tips from an easy +11 fantasy points.

Claypool is a WR2 every week with strong WR1 upside in 2020 – and will be a star of stars for the future.

3) Diontae Johnson (6-77-0/10) was getting targets right out of the gate, 1st series, but he slipped while making a simple cut for his route and missed out on an easy pitch-and-catch designed throw. And then a disconnect the next throw…then a gap of time for the Steelers not having the ball or being effective with it. Diontae had little for stats early, but was getting looks right away -- but then when it got going 2nd-half Diontae was back to connecting with Ben. No worries here.

4) JuJu (6-93-1/7) had a section of the game where he was the open man/lesser covered and Ben went after it. JuJu got the TD and had a nice FF week, but he was also #3 in targets among the WRs. This is three nice weeks in a row for JuJu.

 

 -- If Ben Roethlisberger (29-42 for 306 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) is out this week for COVID or due to his knee (which is being silenced by the COVID/lack of practicing)…who would Mason Rudolph throw the ball to more?

The good news is…it would be Rudolph vs. Cincy, so there would be hope for passing in general. We’ve not seen Rudolph for extended time with this trio, so who really knows? My guess is Rudolph has more time with Claypool than Diontae/JuJu this year…so there would be hope for Claypool, and Rudolph has time with Diontae from last season, so some familiarity there.

But Mason is NOT Ben…

 

 -- Garrett Gilbert (21-38 for 243 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) played a halfway decent game, and thus all the Dallas WRs were plausible for FF. I thought it might be the case…that Gilbert would not DiNucci the WR group.

I suspect Andy Dalton will slip right into the starting lineup Week 11, after this bye week. Dalton at MIN, in a dome, against a bad pass D…might not be too bad for all involved.

 

 -- Another week, another event where Tony Pollard (9-57-0, 1-1-0/2) looks better, fresher than Ezekiel Elliott (18-51-02-18-0/3).

Elliott is averaging 3.8 yards per carry this season, and Pollard 5.2.

Again, be careful getting too frisky with these ‘backup looks better than the starter’ notes/your observations watching the games – defensive calls/alignments change when Pollard is in vs. Elliott. Dallas is not changing off Elliott for Pollard…they’re just giving Pollard more touches as they run the ball more to stay out of the passing game as much as they can so their 3rd/4th-string QBs are throwing less.

You should hold Pollard if you have Elliott, but don’t anyone fantasize that an RB coup is coming. That’s Zeke’s backfield until he dies.

 

 -- Speaking of dead RBs…James Conner (9-22-0, 2-0-0/2) put up a real gem here. Conner’s numbers continue to dwindle as the season wears on. The Steelers HAVE to move on from him in 2021, when he hits free agency. Nice guy. Great cancer recovery story. Mediocre lead running back.

Mike Tomlin will not make a change unless forced to…and 2021 Conner will be allowed to go to free agency. Then Tomlin will try to force a Bennie Snell (3-1-0) and Anthony McFarland (3-7-0) duo in 2021, I think…and maybe draft an RB as well.

The wave of the future, for strategy, depth, cost containment is to have 3-4 cheap RBs and don’t give them big deals after their original deals run out after four seasons. Meaning…lot’s more RBBC coming for FF. We’ll not know what RB to trust going forward because teams will be adding more RBs through the draft and creating ‘stables’ not ‘workhorses’.  

 

 -- Three IDP notes…

Dallas rookie CB Trevon Diggs (7 tackles) is out for probably the rest of the season…it’s a shame because the Dallas D was starting to stabilize, and Diggs was a nice part of that stabilization. The Dallas D loses a step, again, with this key injury.

PIT rookie DE Alex Highsmith (3 tackles, 1.0 sack) is starting to play more and more snaps. I think he’s impressed the team and is now in their plans for the future. One the better DE prospect, in my scouting, in the 2020 NFL Draft...and one of the nicest people you’d ever come across.

I don’t know what laboratory PIT DT Henry Mondeaux (1 tackles, 1 TFL) was created in but it’s scary. He’s like a fire hydrant (with decent speed/get off) came to life in human form. Just a brick wall of a man. If you watch the Steelers games ahead…try and catch a glimpse. When I saw him in this game, I thought it was a movie character from like ‘Longest Yard’. He’s a freak. He’s like a 1970s Steelers player came to life off an old football card.

Mondeaux was a solid DE at Oregon and went undrafted in 2018 and was with KC initially but the Steelers stole him and developed him and now he’s playing 10-15 snaps as a D-Line, special teamer, and fullback blocker on goal line situations. He’s something. Not sure if anything for FF, but for the NFL he has my attention.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

47 = Zeke

23 = Pollard

 

63 = JuJu

59 = Diontae

56 = Claypool

13 = J Washington

 

32 = Conner

08 = McFarland

05 = Snell

R.C. Fischer

FFM

11 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Ravens 24, Colts 10

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

I went into this game thinking the Ravens were gonna take the Colts’ head off, but it didn’t happen that way. Sure, the Ravens won, covered my ‘bet of the year’ proclamation…but it wasn’t what I expected.

I keep thinking the Ravens are dominant still, but in their last 6 games they’ve scuffled through with five of those 6 opponents…only dominating the Bengals. Otherwise the Ravens are either getting beaten by top teams or they’re winning games by a decent margin but the opponents, even weaker ones, kinda hang around in games and have chances to win instead of the Ravens fully putting them away.

The high flying, crush everything in sight Ravens from 2019…that team seems to have disappeared. Lamar Jackson is getting figured out and looks cool but human. They’ve lost their best O-Lineman to injury a few weeks ago. They lost CB Marlon Humphrey this game to COVID. It’s still a good-to-very good team but something just doesn’t seem right here. Not as great as 2019.

The Colts led 7-0 quickly in this game and were holding down the Ravens’ offense…and then a fumble, scoop-and-score Ravens D TD tied it up and flipped the momentum…or at least paused it for Indy gaining confidence. Eventually, the Colts took a 10-7 lead into halftime.

The Ravens defense started to tighten up and Philip Rivers got uncomfortable and none of his WRs could get open easily, and when they did Rivers threw it too far or too short or too much behind them. The Ravens started to get some offensive mojo going as the game wore on and they slowly started to turn the game and once with the lead they got tough on Indy/the Colts couldn’t answer. It was a hard-fought win by the Ravens, but not pretty or super-impressive…but a win is a win.

The Ravens jump to (6-2) and they can still win the AFC North if they keep winning and knock off Pittsburgh Week 12. The schedule is cake after Week 12…five easy wins on the board. The Ravens could win out and go (14-2) and win their division and have a shot at the #1 seed (they already lost to KC this season, so not likely). But if they lose to Pittsburgh, at Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving night…the Ravens may go (13-3) and that be a wild card.

The Colts fall to (5-3)…they should not have won this game, they are not a (6-2) type team. (5-3/4-4) is more their mode at this juncture…better than the average team but not a Super Bowl threat team. Their season is going to come down, for the most part, the next three weeks…where they play Tennessee twice in that span. If they can sweep the Titans, then the AFC South is up from grabs. Likely, they split with Tennessee and the Colts have a much tougher schedule ahead to navigate to try and win the AFC South. We see Indy going (9-7) and getting a wild card.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- The latest on the Jonathan Taylor (6-27-1, 2-7-0/2) chronicles…

He started.

He took the first three plays in-a-row, run-pass-run.

He got the goal line shot for a TD and the first score of the game.

He fumbled the following series, and it was scooped and scored to tie the game.

He kinda disappeared after the fumble.

Jordan Wilkins (11-39-0, 2-0-0/2) went on to out-touch and out-snap him…again.

Taylor does not look hurt at all, he looks fine. He was rolling a bit until the fumble.

He’s never going to escape this RB-trio with Frank Reich in charge, unless he gets so dominant from the first snap that they can’t turn away – but then it would be the same deal next week.

Taylor is an RB2-3, stuck in a trio on purpose by design and it’s not changing…and if it does change it would be for a moment/hot hand stretch but not a full scale lead dog situation (unless others got hurt).

Taylor looks fine. But he has little room to run because teams are not afraid of Philip Rivers, so defenses play up against the run more…especially when Taylor comes in. The Colts are #21 in rushing yards per game and #30 in yards per carry…it’s not just Taylor struggling to run here.

With Taylor…you have a 6-10 carries, 1-2 catches, split role/not in the game in the hurry up RB2.5 who leans RB3 more than RB2 for the foreseeable future in 2020.

Wilkins is not going to be an ‘answer’…just more likely to get the majority touches in games right now, for whatever reason, but he’s nothing more than an RB3 flyer.

 

 -- J.K. Dobbins (12-30-0, 2-3-0/2) is in a different but similar-ish FF situation. He’s also part of an RB-trio, when Mark Ingram returns, and then JKD will be a 6-10 carries, 0-2 catches a game guy…but he’s not the goal line guy in 2020 but he IS the pass catcher back…but sadly the Ravens don’t throw to the RB.

I’m getting a bad feeling that Dobbins is a great RB talent that is stuck in a not-great situation for FF now…but also in 2021. Unless the Ravens go full scale Dobbins for 18+ carries a game…we’re going to be stuck with an RB1 talent who puts up RB2 numbers, especially in PPR.

There are rare few teams where there is ONE RB who is holy, and more and more teams ‘sharing’ and splitting and rotating…and when the new wave of rookie RBs pours into 2021…it’s gonna get worse.

Fantasy is filled with a bunch of RB2 you hope scores a TD to make sense to have had played for the week.

Do you know how many RBs ran for 100+ yards in a game last week in the NFL? One. Dalvin Cook for 200+.

Do you know how many RBs ran for more than 75+ yards in a game last week? Two…Cook and James Robinson.

Here were the top 11 rushers in Week 9:

Cook 200+

J Robinson 99

Damien Harris 71

Edmonds 70

McCaffrey 69

Ballage 69

Mattison 68

Gallman 68

Booker 68

D Henry 68

Alf Morris 67

Kalen Ballage, Wayne Gallman, Alexander Mattison, Devontae Booker, and Alf Morris were among your top rushers of the week…MIDSEASON.

The running back went from meaning everything to meaning nothing in a half of a season for fantasy. Go win with elite QBs and WRs and smart DST streamers. Running backs all suck except for like 2-3 of them that you’re not acquiring.

Jonathan Taylor is killing you? What running back do you think is going to save you? Are you going to start Kalen Ballage this week? He was the 5th best rusher last week, so maybe…

 

 -- The Colts WRs were covered tight by the Ravens, but they did get open some…better than the Steelers WRs did last week vs. Baltimore. But Rivers was missing them a lot on his throws.

To comment on the Colts WRs…

1) Michael Pittman (4-56-0/7) seemed like Rivers’ top target, and Pittman looked solid, but he was #1 here this game because…

2) Marcus Johnson (2-14-0/7) drew the top coverage (Jimmy Smith) – meaning the Ravens know who the true #1 for Rivers is, and they cut it off.

3) DeMichael Harris (2-28-0, 4-27-0/4) is the name of the week to know…

A high school track star/football player who went the JUCO route and wound up transferring to Southern Miss. In the 2019 season, he was an RB/WR hybrid rushing for 541 yards, 5.0 ypc, and 5 TDs in 12 games…and catching 34 passes for 346 yards and 3 more TDs, plus returned a kick for a TD as well.

He has been on the practice squad and was elevated for this game, and he was the biggest part of the offense for the Colts this game – it’s either a sad commentary on the state of the Colts’ offense or a gold star for Harris.

It/Harris was working too…the jet sweep is an auto 5+ yard play…if I were an NFL head coach I’d just run 70 jet sweeps a game, because no one ever stops it…except the offensive coordinator stopping calling the play. Harris averaged 14.0 yards per carry on two carries and saw two passes for 10 yards a pop average…a bubble screen and him lined up as an RB and taking a swing pass. Basically, in this game, Harris got elevated off the practice squad and got better looks/planning in his debut game than 90%+ of the WRs in the NFL did in Week 9.

I’m sure Frank Reich is in love with himself with this weapon, so I expect Harris to get 4-8 more touches this week…he’s on the FF radar now. He looked fast, smooth, and NFL-ready. Not sure how good a receiver he is but he can catch short passes and runs the ball with confidence.

 

 -- Will Lamar Jackson (19-23 for 170 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT, 13-58-1) bounce back/rise up for FF from here? Probably not. The whole Ravens thing from 2019 seems to have fizzled out…the magic, the excitement…pretty much washed away.

LJax is less than 200 yards passing, maybe a pass TD, 50-60 yards rushing, and hopefully a rush TD per week.

If he rushed for 50 and a TD and threw for 200 and a TD = that’s 23 FF points (4pts per pass TD)…guys like Kyler, Mahomes, Herbert, Allen, Wilson are putting that up and then some every week it seems. Lamar is not as special as he was last year, but the higher end passes got more special in 2020, and more QBs became special (Herbert, Allen…Burrow about there). Time has passed Lamar by…he’s been figured out to some degree and he was always a ‘good’ overall QB talent not an elite talent, but he looked elite last season…but whatever that was last year, it isn’t anywhere close in 2020.

Leagues where I went with Lamar to start the year, I switched to Herbert early and saved the season…or stuck with Lamar and those teams are dying or hanging on with QB2 Lamar…or are out of the playoffs already.

If you don’t think fantasy QB matters…you haven’t played it in 2020. It always mattered, was always undervalued. I think 2021 the fantasy intelligentsia might actually start siding with me on that point. I bought into the heavy RB thing this year…and it has burned me in almost every situation – I’ve had to dig out, trade, waiver, maneuver into a better team away from the ever-hurt, ever-changing RBs.

 

 -- With the fall of the Ravens’ offense, Mark Andrews (3-22-0/5) is not a strong TE1 anymore.

Six of his last 7 games he’s had 3 or fewer catches in a game.

He has not cracked 60+ yards in a game this season.

He’s been under 35 yards receiving in five of his 8 games this season.

He’s the #9 TE in FF in PPR PPG this season.

Since Week 2, he’s the 18 TE in FF in PPR PPG this season.

The whole Ravens thing is atrophying. If I presented the same data on Marquise Brown, you’d shudder as well. Marquise Brown complaining about targets midweek and not getting force-fed this game…a bad sign ahead for Brown.

Everything Ravens, like everything Colts, for FF, is pretty much dead for having a ‘1’ after it…no RB1, QB1, TE1, WR1...DST1 and PK1 is all that’s left.

 

 -- BAL rookie LB Malik Harrison (11 tackles, 1 TFL) started and played the most snaps of his young career here (49%)…he made 11 tackles (6 solo/5 assist). He looked OK. I didn’t see anything ‘wow’…but it might not be long before he is more of a starter than not for Baltimore.

Fellow rookie LB Patrick Queen (4 tackles) is starting to fulfill my scouting fears on him…8.4 tackles per game his first five games out of the NFL chute…3.3 tackles per game his last 3 weeks. I don’t think he’s a great IDP ILB tackle accumulator.  

Flimsy high-status rookie IDPs tend to play lights out their first few games, to impress the coaches, etc., but then after they do that, they tend to fall back into what they are.

 

 -- Weeks 1-5 this season, the Colts-DST was #2 in FF PPG.

Weeks 6-9…#11 in FF.

The Colts have a good defense, but it was inflated for FF by an easy schedule…and most of their points boosted off two D TDs against the Jets early in the season.

I’ve been warning the schedule is coming for them…it started here. Nothing but legit QBs to face the rest of the season, on paper.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

60 = Marcus Johnson

59 = Pittman

41 = Pascal

16 = DeM Harris

 

23 = Wilkins

23 = Hines

21 = J Taylor

 

36 = Dobbins

24 = Edwards

03 = Justice Hill

R.C. Fischer

FFM

11 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Titans 24, Bears 17

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

I remembered this, from the live watch, as a Tennessee drubbing/manhandling of the Bears. 10-0 Titans at the half. 17-0 TEN after three quarters. 24-3 Titans with 8+ minutes left. Easy win?

Really, re-watching this game, it was a pretty flimsy, erratic, slog of a game by both teams. The Bears were not as bad as the 24-3 Titans lead showed. Chicago got it together late and closed it to 24-17 but couldn’t get a late onside kick and they ended up with a one score loss. It could’ve been worse…or the Bears could have gotten more luck earlier and made it a real ballgame.

I’m not impressed with Tennessee here, nor am I thinking differently with Chicago – they are both ‘any given Sunday’ teams. They aren’t great playoff teams; both may miss out on the playoffs (but soon every team will make the playoffs anyway) but if they do get to the playoffs they won’t go far. Tennessee is the better overall team, because Matt Nagy wrecks the Bears in general, but neither team is all that impressive…nor were they in this game.

The Titans are (6-2), but it doesn’t feel like a (6-2) team. The schedule is their friend ahead…and if they can split with Indy in their two games in the next 3 weeks with them, then Tennessee may win this division with a 10-win season. If Indy beats them twice the next 3 weeks, the Titans could be scrambling to get to (9-7) and the wild card. We think the 10-win season and a shot at the AFC South is more likely, sightly, over the (9-7) finish.

The Bears have lost three in a row…and have fallen to (5-4), and their losing streak is just desserts because they are a (2-7) team masquerading as a (5-4) contender. If they lose to Minnesota, in Chicago, on MNF this week…all Matt Nagy hell is going to break loose this week in the Windy City. I think they will lose and eventually wind up (8-8) and fans wanting Nagy fired, but they won’t get the satisfaction.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- The big news from this game…David Montgomery (14-30-0, 3-12-0/3) got hurt late in the game and is questionable this week. They say a concussion, but it looks like a shoulder/arm injury to me…on top of that.

So, is it Ryan Nall (4-35-1/4) time? Honestly, I don’t know. It should be, but I also know Matt Nagy knows nothing of football talent or how to use it…so, my NFL-brain says he gets stiffed. But the way this game ended gives me hope.

Here’s the court case/evidence…

THE CASE FOR PATTERSON: Cordarrelle Patterson (3-13-0, 4-27-0/4) started this game. He was rotating in and out with Montgomery, but Patterson got a little push…but Montgomery played 50-17 snaps vs. CP and Montgomery took most of the touches (per usual). It looked like Nagy was trying to get Patterson going to spark Montgomery, but neither thing really was working.

Nagy has confidence in Patterson…he has all year. There’s NEVER been a turn to Ryan Nall to see what he might do.

My NFL-brain says Patterson will get 10+ touches and be the lead back for sure.

THE CASE FOR RYAN NALL: So, Montgomery goes down as the Bears are scrambling back into this game. Nall comes in for a play. Then Patterson in the next play. Then Nall in the next play…then Nall stays in, catches a short pass he runs in for a TD.

Next series, Nall in…Bears turnover. One play drive ends quickly.

Next series, again…Bears trying to get back in it, Nall in to start again…and he stayed in 7 straight plays in the hurry up offense, catching a few dump passes.

Chicago gets into the red zone, and then Artavis Pierce comes in for a play…then they go all WRs the next play, TD, end of Bears’ offensive chances.

A lot of Nall late, but he took no carries (but it was an all pass comeback frenzy). But then Nall out for Pierce (after Nall just made a play/catch and ran for good yards…may have been a breather). Patterson, a game breaking WR of the past…was not in the entire time in the hurry up, but Nall was?

You’re asking me what Matt Nagy will do for Week 10, when in the hurry up offense with terrible Montgomery in the game a ton, but then goes out hurt – and Nagy goes to little used Nall instead of former gamebreaker WR, game starter at RB Patterson?

What will Nagy do Week 10? I have to ask myself…what would an idiot do, and then take it from there.

My guess is Patterson starts, for sure, and then if he’s hot -- he’s taking the day. BUT Nall will get some shots and if he gets hot, then they’ll make use of Nall by accident/stumbling into it. Nothing is assured for Nall. Patterson will get the first series/starting chance – but that’s meant nothing all season.  

Nall could earn 10+ touches and become a mini sensation of a tough runner the Bears crave. OR Nall could also see 3 touches and split minor time with Artavis Pierce and ruin your Monday night.

There’s hope with Nall…but also a lot of risk. I hope Nagy makes some statements to the press this week we can decipher to help figure it out better.

 

 -- In Tennessee RB news…

You have to just stick with Derrick Henry (21-68-0) if you have him. Tougher matchup this game. Always stacked boxes he faces regardless. Incredibly tough matchups the next three weeks vs. IND-BAL-IND. You’re stuck hoping Henry overcomes. I think he could, but he could just as easily pitch in three ‘meh’ efforts.

D’Onta Foreman (5-11-0) really looks good in relief carries. Foreman may never do anything ever again for FF, but I’m just noting he looks like a legit NFL starting RB again. He is the Henry cuff in my mind.

 

 -- Nick Foles (36-52 for 335 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) is turning water into wine the past two games…303.5 yards passing and 2.0 pass TDs per game the past two weeks. He faces the very giving Minnesota pass defense this week. He could work for a week.

 

 -- Foles has no running game, so he has to throw…a lot…to try and win games. Numbers come with that. He has a WR helping out…

Darnell Mooney (5-43-0/11) is starting to turn from talented but unsure rookie (as most all start out as)…to where I see the confidence is starting to grow. He’s a really excellent WR prospect but playing in a stiff offense…however, Foles has to throw a lot and Mooney is becoming his strong #2. Mooney led all receivers with 11 targets this game. He also caught a beautiful 31-yard leaping TD in heavy coverage but came down just out of bounds…or his stat line would have people rushing in for FF, I bet.

This week vs. MIN might be a winner.

Riley Ridley (2-23-0/2) made an appearance, and he looked better than I’ve seen him before.

Foles has some guys to throw to besides ARob. This Week 10 game vs. MIN could be a good spot for passer numbers.

 

 -- When Corey Davis (0-0-0/3) cannot hide from good coverage…hiding behind all the A.J. Brown attention or playing teams like Cincy…when it’s tough coverage – this is the Corey Davis you get.

 

 -- I thought perhaps the Titans-DST was turning here…they were pitching a shutout for a while, but they eventually gave up some garbage points late. I saw some flashes of hope here with the Titans-DST but not enough to get me really excited to use them strong against Philip Rivers.

The trade addition of CB Desmond King (2 tackles, 1 FR TD) really helps Tennessee. If they could get Adoree Jackson back, we might have something here. It’s just a flyer DST hope at this point – a weak defense with a decent-ish schedule ahead.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

29 = Henry

16 = McNichols

08 = Foreman

 

52 = Jonnu

27 = Firkser

 

50 = Montgomery

17 = CPatt

10 = Nall

01 = Pierce

R.C. Fischer

FFM

11 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Dolphins 34, Cardinals 31

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

The Dolphins eked out a gritty win, but in reality the Cardinals were the better team here…they just let this getaway. A key turnover lost, deep in their own territory, on a muffed punt for Arizona…a couple lucky throws by Tua landed…penalties against the Cardinals at crucial times…Arizona let Miami hang around and they got-got in the end. It’s not like the Cardinals were great, but they showed me more here than Miami did. I still am not sure how Miami won this game…or how they were even close, honestly.

Miami gets to (5-3)…a four game win streak, and five out of their last 6. They are headed to the playoffs maybe…it’s going to be close -- but they will not threaten Buffalo for the AFC East title regardless. We see them finishing 8-9 wins. Week 10 hosting LAC is huge…gotta hold homefield and win but Justin Herbert can work miracles. A win over LAC in Week 10 sends Miami into likely playoff status…a loss could bring it all crashing down considering the schedule ahead and the risk of Tua.

Arizona falls to (5-3). I think Arizona is a stronger playoff candidate than Miami right now. The Cards are getting to 9 wins unless Kyler goes down. 9-10 wins is their current range for our projections. The 49ers and Patriots dying helps Arizona down the stretch…those was once ‘tough’ schedule/matchups but are now easier wins projected.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Let’s start with the (new) greatest QB in the history of football, for the mainstream, Tua Tagovailoa (20-28 for 248 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 7-35-0).

I’m already totally sick of him…not him, he’s a good kid, but the media/analyst love is utterly ridiculous. I’d facetiously ask if they (football analysts) really watch these games – but either of the two possible answers are negative for them. It’s either…

1) They don’t watch…and I think that’s the majority -- because they don’t have to. They get paid lots of money for being ‘them’ (analysts)…paid for their former lives, not their current astuteness -- they watch some live games during the week (usually SNF and MNF), they watch a lot of highlights, and always just echo what everyone else seems to think on players.

The problem with our entire American media (lazy, unstudied, untalented, biased) is pervasive and thriving in sports media. No depth of their work. No objectivity. No real effort put in. ‘Cheating’ off popular opinion for their opinions is how they get by…so they can’t ever be wrong alone on a real, radical opinion -- it’s safer (job security) this way.

OR

2) They do watch/study SOME/a few games, but not studying in detail hour after hour, week after week, 24/7/365…what they do watch they have no idea what they are watching because they don’t do it for a living like it’s life and death…despite the huge paycheck.

What they do watch already has Tua-colored glasses, so it doesn’t matter what is happening before their eyes…they already made up their mind. Thus, when Tua completes a basic/simple pass…it’s the greatest feat they’ve seen all day/year. When he had a basic scramble downfield and cut away from a defender for a few extra yards in this game…he’s Barry Sanders all of a sudden to the TV hype analyst.

You cannot get objective opinion on Tua today…like any other type of news. When Tua absolutely sucked out loud in his debut, the focus was ‘Miami shocks the Rams, Tua wins his debut’. The real story was punted/ignored…it didn’t fit their narrative. When Tua has some decent stats in their win here, it’s ‘The Dolphins are for real led by a breakout performance by Tua!’

With this win, it’s all settled -- now THEY can speak of Burrow, Herbert, and Tua on the same level – yet, nothing could be further from the truth. I’m not saying Tua is terrible…he’s just not anywhere near as good as advertised and doesn’t belong in the same discussion with Burrow or Herbert.

I watched Tua in this game live and I kept wondering – this was THEIR top guy? A big hitch in his throws. Mediocre, slower feet moving around compared to the top guys. Having to roll out all the time to make simple throws because he’s bad in the pocket (a sure sign of trouble ahead…forced rollout plays on purpose). A bunch of looks one way and then quick turns the other way and throws blind – that crap ain’t gonna work long in the NFL. Teams are going to heavy blitz him coming from his left side roll and are going to ruin him soon…it’s happened to say many weak QBs of the past.

So, Tua flung a bunch of passes blindly to receivers and a few miraculously landed. Two terrible INTs were negated…one by replay (just out of bounds) and another was horrific, thrown blindly right into double coverage but the defender dropped the easy pick right to him. Sometimes it’s just your day…it took that type of day here to get Tua to respectable passer numbers. I bet this is his best game of the season as a passer, statistically…and it was a lot of luck.

Watching early Herbert and Burrow, compared to early Tua – it’s the difference between gold and silver…or gold and copper is maybe the better analogy.

I’d be selling DeVante Parker (6-64-0/7) before Sunday. People love Parker as it is (because you’re supposed to) and now he gets a bump for being ‘with Tua’…and, as of this week, Tua has been declared great, so Parker benefits from the hype. I think it’s going to be WR3-4-land for Preston ahead on Tua struggles. Not Preston’s fault. Jakeem Grant (4-35-0/6) might be in a better place for easy pitch and catch short throws if Preston Williams is out hurt.

 

 -- At least Tua has a stellar running game to help him! https://youtu.be/C6YfJZ9hxLQ

Miami run game ranks…

Rushing yards = #29 per game (97.1 yards)

Yards per carry = #32 (3.6 ypc)

Myles Gaskin shouldn’t be a starting RB. Matt Breida has looked terrible. Jordan Howard (10-19-1) has been a failure. Now, Salvon Ahmed (7-38-0) is the new savior…he looks that way because everything else has been so awful.

Ahmed is a smaller, thinner framed, shifty runner. Not awesome, but capable. He’s the lead guy going into Week 10, by default after watching Week 9.

…except, I think DeAndre Washington might be the new starter…as soon as Week 10. Washington fits what Brian Flores wants…physically tough, experienced, hard-nosed grinder. Can run between the tackles and works nice in the passing game.

I’d never want to bet heavy on what Brian Flores may or may not do…but I’d take a dice roll on Washington, stuck on the end of a deeper/RB-needy roster to see what happens this week. Won’t cost you anything really.

 

 -- Chase Edmonds (25-70-0, 3-18-0/3) is better than every single Miami RB on their roster…combined.

Chase got his big moment here and it was ‘meh’ for FF, but he looked as good as ever on tape -- but Miami really played great run defense here and kept Edmonds surrounded most of the game. He never had a big pop play.

No lost faith in Edmonds. I think he starts without Drake Week 10, and maybe again Week 11. And whenever Drake returns, Edmonds is a solid hands RB2-3 week-to-week in PPR…and semi-threat to overthrow Drake at some point but not likely. A 50-50 split is Edmonds best case for 2020.

 

 -- The Kyler Murray (21-26 for 283 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 11-106-1) report, and it is good…

This was the best game I’ve seen Kyler Murray play in his NFL career. This was the game that has convinced me he has really ‘arrived’ at the elite/upper end FF QB level.

I knew he could run for FF gold, but now he’s starting to become a passing assassin…not an up-and-down, or flashes moments passer – he’s ‘arrived’. He’s starting to find other receivers besides DeAndre Hopkins.

He’s throwing downfield on the money…71.0% completion percentage total in 2020 MINUS that weird Dallas performance where he was 9-for-24 passing.

2.3 passing TDs per game his last six games.

Two 350+ yard passing games in his last 4 games.

He’s been sacked 0 or 1 time in six straight games…amazing. His running prowess has halted defensive pressure worried about his running, which then gives him time to be an assassin at QB.

I’ve been wondering if he was really going to be an A+ producer…or whether B+ was the peak, but I see the A+ guy starting to emerge finally. He’s not ‘a runner’…he’s truly ‘a passer’, on the level of Patrick Mahomes in gifts/arm talent, and I’ve said that since my initial Kyler scouting report – but it hasn’t fully materialized in the NFL, until now (the past few games it’s been building with one blip vs. DAL). Consistency is here. He’s only getting better week-to-week.

The #1 QB in all of fantasy football, in PPG, 4 or 6pts per pass TD…it’s Kyler Murray.

 

 -- Christian Kirk (5-123-1/8) is benefitting from the Kyler rise as a passer.

Comparing Kirk to Hopkins the past 4 games…

4.3 rec. (6.5 targets), 81.0 yards, 1.3 TDs per game = Kirk

5.3 rec (7.5 targets), 83.5 yards, 0.5 TDs per game = Hopkins

A pretty good schedule ahead. I’ve skeptical of Kirk as low targets/TD surge to give a head-fake…but it’s getting too consistent now. Kirk is going for a ride with Kyler and benefitting from the attention to Hopkins.

 

 -- Newly acquired LB Markus Golden (5 tackles, 1.0 sack, 1 PD) had a nice debut, applying good pressure trying to be the Chandler Jones-a-like. Impressed with his return to Arizona (formerly drafted by the Cardinals). He has a shot to be a sack a game guy here.

 

 -- Miami-DST gave up 34 points here, so people want to quit them. Hey, they actually kept their team in this – taking on the onslaught of Kyler, but Kyler is too much for anyone to handle right now between his running and then pocket assassin ways.

I don’t want to use any good defense/DST if they have a matchup with an elite QB…so, I don’t want to use Miami this week vs. Justin Herbert. It’s Weeks 11-13 that I want.

Week 11 = at DEN

Week 12 = at NYJ

Week 13 = v. CIN

Week 14 = find another (MIA v KC)

Week 15 = v. NE (I’ll take this one too)

Week 16 – at LV is so-so

 

Can you find a defense for Weeks 10, 14, 16 to go with them?

Tennessee-DST has IND, at JAX, at GB those weeks…good for Weeks 10 and 14.

Packers-DST has JAX, at DET, TEN those weeks…not bad.

Chargers-DST has at MIA, ATL, DEN those weeks…that’s rteally not bad at all if they get Bosa and Harris back.

Raiders-DST has DEN, IND, MIA those weeks…all home games, a sneaky pairing facing Lock, Rivers, Tua.

All of those teams will be in the playoff hunt, except LAC…which you want a motivated DST down the stretch.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

66 = Edmonds

05 = DJ Foster

 

55 = Parker

29 = Grant

17 = Hollins

17 = Pr Williams

01 = Kirk Merritt

 

28 = Ahmed

23 = M Perry

21 = Jo Howard

12 = Laird

R.C. Fischer

FFM

10 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Patriots 30, Jets 27

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

I thought the Jets might pull the upset here going into this game. Jason Katz and I spoke of it on Sunday morning…not a guarantee, but that we were worried about taking the Patriots in a survivor pool over the Jets.

The reason for my fears on this game…

1) The Jets are not the laughingstock they are portrayed to be. They are not good. They have issues, but they are playing harder than a lot of other teams – and they are going to win at least one game this year, if not two. But I’d set the over/under at 1.5 wins.

2) The Patriots are playing worse football than the Jets. Let that sink in. The Patriots have better players and coaches, but the Pats have a lot of injuries and a lot of players who opted-out before the season, and some seem to be opting-out in-season/in-game. The Jets are playing with more passion than the Patriots right now…and Cam Newton is killing the Patriots. He’s a waste. This win staves off a huge backlash ending Cam’s Patriots career – I believe, had the Jets won this game…Cam would’ve been cut the next day. Now, with the win, the Patriots hold delusions of being ‘in it’ for the playoffs.

I never want to bury a Belichick team too early, but I’m already shoveling the dirt. This team is going to finish with 5-6 wins and when Belichick realizes it’s over, a lot of players might be about to get cut in the next few weeks and a lot more ‘names’ cut and traded next preseason.

As far as this game goes…the Jets had it won, but they are the Jets, so they blew it in epic fashion. The worst final 5-7 minutes of football in the 2020 season…when they played a really nice first 50+ minutes. It’s a shame, but I think the Jets fans and management are breathing a sigh of relief – because they want to lose and tank for Trevor.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- This game, for me/my notes, was mostly about four WR stories…

1) Jakobi Meyers (12-169-0/14) – did I call this a few weeks ago or what? I was saying Meyers was their new #1 but even I didn’t think we’d be getting 10+ catch games a few weeks later.

Some FFMers were ‘forced’ into rolling with Meyers this week…and that added more wins from certain doom. That’s a good thing. It's funny…Jakobi’s big game turned some losses into wins out of nowhere last night…for the same people who emailed Monday morning to complain they sat D.J. Chark.

It’s never over until the games are finally finished for the week.

Meyers is clearly the Pats #1 WR, even if/when Edelman returns…and whether Cam or Stidham. Meyers was rolling with Stidham a few weeks ago, after Cam started to in the same game. I don’t know that Meyers is the long-term #1. I think he’s more ‘of the moment’, but he’s a professional WR…he’ll have value, but note this is a weak passing game – and Meyers is about to get the star coverage treatment…and Meyers is a bit limited as an athlete, but very good technical WR. His upside is a bit capped…but it’s hot right now.

 

2) Denzel Mims (4-62-0/8) – I never thought Jakobi Meyers would be the lead story where I was going to talk nice about Mims…but, hey, welcome to 2020.

What I want to convey on Mims…

What I think I’m seeing is the same thing I saw with Justin Jefferson out of the gates in 2020. A solid-looking, nondescript-acting WR prospect who looked worthy but nothing special. I thought JJ was tentative his first few weeks and I feared he didn’t have the ‘it’/aggression factor…then ‘boom’ Jefferson exploded one week and never looked back. I’m getting the same vibe with Mims…slowly getting up to speed, gaining more confidence, showing tiny flashes. And I know he graded top 5 in our CFM draft grades at WR this season…the talent is there.

Mims has excellent feet, and he looks like he is gliding in and out of his routes…but he’s still not dominating coverage or being overly aggressive. He still has that first month of high school as a freshman appearance…still a little unsure but getting more comfortable with his surroundings. Jefferson did the same and then a switch flipped, and he never looked back. Is Mims about to go there? Also, good news…the QBs (Flacco or Darnold) have been getting him the ball/forcing it to him some. A good sign.

Is Mims going to pop like Jefferson? Probably not…only because we got Flacco-Darnold working it. However, with Jamison Crowder (2-26-1/2) getting top coverage attention as well as Breshad Perriman (5-101-2/7) – Mims can operate in the shadows a bit and get up to speed. Mims was getting a lot of good, easy pitch and catch passes to him this game. Mims reminded me of early Jefferson or early Diontae…such gifted feet going at a corner and cutting into a route, but kinda low key/not divas that they can be overlooked…and then ‘boom’ it happens.

I’m betting against a Jefferson-like ‘boom’ here with Mims, but I’m not ruling it out as much as I would have two weeks ago.

 

3) Breshad Perriman (5-101-2/7) – just posted 2 TDs and 100+ yards on the best coverage the Pats could throw at him with Joe Flacco as the delivery system. That’s not a bad thing.

Perriman is good, but this may be more about the Flacco-Perriman relationship from Baltimore than a true turn. It may be that Perriman is Joe Flacco’s BFF like Jamison Crowder is for Sam Darnold.

But what if Flacco has to start the rest of the season? Then Perriman is for sure in play. If Darnold comes back next week…we have to pause and wonder where he’ll go with Crowder-Perriman-Mims as options…whether there’s enough outside of Crowder.

 

4) Gunner Olszewski (3-16-0, 1-0-0/1) – the Patriots want Gunner to be a thing, to be the new Edelman. The problem is Tom Brady is gone. We don’t know who the 2021 Patriots QB will be, but Gunner has a shot to be a starter…for those in deep roster Dynasty.

In 2020, no FF chance…Jakobi Meyers is the king.

 

 -- Damien Harris (14-71-0) looked very good again but got hurt late to take away a chance at a 100+ yard game again.

Two notes…

1) Harris is becoming the clear lead for New England, but the lead in NE is still splitting with Rex and White…and who knows about Sony?

2) No targets for Harris. Five games/starts, 2 total targets…just like Sony. You’re getting 10-15 carries and no catches with Harris…this is a PPR problem I don’t think improves over time. J.D. McKissic is going to blow Harris away in PPR right now.

Same issue for J.K. Dobbins or Darrell Henderson, among others it appears.

Sad, but true.

 

 -- Some Jets IDPs catching my attention…

CB Bless Austin (12 tackles, 1 PD), in game he plays 90% of the snaps (6 games so far), is averaging 6.6 total tackles, 0.4 PDs, 0.3 TFLSs per game. He’s the clear starter right now (for now).

Neville Hewitt (7 tackles) is now Gregg Williams’ favorite ILB, and he looks better than I’ve seen him before…slimmer, quicker. He’s averaging 8.2 total tackles per game this season.

Rookie SAF Ashtyn Davis (5 tackles, 1 PD) started for the 2nd week in a row and has 4.5 total tackles per game in two starts. That’s not the great note…those are ‘meh’ tackle counts. The note is – I thought Davis was more of a coverage safety, a little finesse/soft -- but he’s playing like low key Jonathan Abrams (LV) right now…he’s trying to blow up ballcarriers. He looked very aggressive and menacing out there Monday. Get in early on this, in deeper Dynasty, I think his tackle counts are about to rise to 6-7 a game soon.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

45 = Perriman

44 = Mims

31 = Crowder

 

23 = Gore

21 = Perine

02 = Ty Johnson

 

34 = Rex

28 = D Harris

21 = White

R.C. Fischer

FFM

10 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Bills 44, Seahawks 34

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

Well, well, well…

Two inconvenient truths here.

1) The Buffalo Bills are better than the Seattle Seahawks. Not just because they won this game…they were just better anyway, and you could see it this season playing out…but proved it with a convincing win here.

2) Josh Allen 2020 > Russell Wilson 2020.

You’ll buy #1 before you’d ever entertain my #2. If you don’t think it’s true – you didn’t watch this game, nor this season. More on these two in a moment.

Buffalo pretty much dominated Seattle from the jump…24-7 Buffalo at one point in the 2nd-quarter. 41-20 Buffalo with 9+ minutes left but Seattle scrambled for 17 points late to make the game seem closer than it was. It wasn’t this close. Buffalo swarmed Russell Wilson on the pass rush and just blanketed their receivers. It was Buffalo’s best game of 2020…Josh Allen is better than Russell Wilson…and Sean McDermott is 10x the coach Pete Carroll is…and Buffalo winning here was cosmic justice.

The Bills are now (7-2) and headed towards the AFC East title. They should finish with 11-12 wins and Week 17 vs. Miami should not matter for the AFC East title…if it does, for some reason, the Bills will consume Tua.

Seattle is starting to crash back to earth…losers of two of their last 3 games. They are (6-2) but lucky to not be (4-4) at this stage. Fortunately, for them, the rest of the NFC West lost so Seattle is still likely to win the NFC West but Arizona and the Rams are still viable to overtake Seattle, especially Arizona (who has already booked a win over Seattle). We see Seattle finishing (11-5) due to a very easy schedule Weeks 12-15, where the literally have all four NFC (L)East teams in a row.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Russell Wilson (28-41 for 390 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) is a great NFL QB, maybe the best in-game, clutch QB in the league today, but Josh Allen (31-38 for 415 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 7-14-1) is just playing better overall in 2020. Not because of this one game…it’s been true all year, but most of us (used to be me) think Allen is not that good, because of his previous seasons. I don’t know if he took some special potion or sold his soul to the devil or what this offseason, but I’ve never seen a QB go from shaky/OK to great in one big leap and sustain it. All the great QBs of this day (Mahomes, Kyler, Dak, Russell, Rodgers, etc.), I saw the potential for it in their college scouting…saw some flaws but saw the star potential to varying degrees…but did not with Allen. Wrote him off with impunity. His first two seasons kinda confirmed my initial diagnosis. What he’s been doing in 2020 is Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert like – just flat-footed in dirty pockets making frozen rope throws on the money all season.

For the umpteenth time this season, I’ll say it…this Josh Allen thing is no fluke. It’s deadly serious. Many of you bought into him for deep discounts the past few weeks, and ‘here you go’…your reward Week 9. Finally, a game not in the rain for Allen, and facing a terrible pass defense – and he did what elite QBs are supposed to do in these situations.

The lone FF-problem for Allen is the late season weather, always a factor with Buffalo. No schedule real break here as we hit December. Week 13 at SF is a weather break maybe, and then you have to hope it’s not too bad at home Weeks 12 and 14, and at DEN Week 15, and at NE Week 16. The good news on that is -- Allen is built for the bad conditions…he strong arms it through the wind and can run for FF goodness if it’s too sloppy otherwise.

Russell Wilson has a bit of weather to deal with potentially. Week 12 at PHI, Week 15 at WSH…Weeks 13-14, 16 at home is usually OK in Seattle but not perfect.

 

 -- As goes Josh Allen, so goes his #1-2 WRs…

Stefon Diggs (9-118-0/12) has been excellent, and FINALLY John Brown (8-99-0/11) got to play a game healthy and not in the rain, and a great matchup.

Diggs is always a WR1 here. Brown could be a solid WR2 ahead (as I’d been chasing for 3-4 weeks back), but I want to see a follow up performance in a dome against ARI Week 10, a mild revenge game for Brown to know he’s all good to trust.

 

 -- You’d think it’d all be gravy for the Seattle #1-2 WRs, but it’s not.

It is for D.K. Metcalf (7-108-1/9)…the best FF WR with Tyreek and Davante. It’s Tyler Lockett (4-40-0/7) that has gotten weird.

Week 7, Lockett had that 15-200-3/20 game, but do you realize what he has done his last 4 games (ignoring Week 7) aside from that?

3.5 rec. (5.3 targets), 36.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game…that’s a disaster.

Lockett has had two monster games since Week 3, and four WR4 performances otherwise. In those 4 games he hasn’t hit over 45 yards in any of the contests. What do you do with him Week 10? I think you have to keep Flexing him and hoping one of the big pops is coming…there’s too much passing going on not to have hope in Seattle with Lockett.

In the same span as Lockett’s last 4 games (ignoring Week 7), David Moore (4-71-1/6) has had three games over 50 yards and scored a TD in three of his last 5 games. Moore is starting to be a viable option over Lockett recently. Maybe Moore is the answer…or the reason Lockett is sinking?

 

 -- The Bills decided to attack Seattle with an all-pass effort the first 2+ quarters of this game. When they tried to salt the big lead to the finish, it was Zach Moss (9-18-1, 2-30-0/2).

This backfield is kinda like a worse version of what’s happening in KC and TB…in Buffalo, when Devin Singletary (2-1-0, 3-33-0/3) was without an injured Moss earlier this season, Singletary was an RB2-3 producer. Buffalo doesn’t feature the run, and I think McDermott sees what Allen is doing and he’s riding what works.

So, what happens to Moss-Singletary when you split general RB2.5-3.0 work? You’re lucky to get two RB3s…more it’s two RB3.5s.

Moss is moving to a 50/50 split of snaps/touches now, and he has scored 3 TDs the past two weeks to prop his FF scoring up…but it’s dullsville otherwise with him. You have to sell him off ASAP in redraft. He’ll get no hotter (unless Singletary gets hurt, and even then Moss will be an RB2.5 at best. Without the TDs…Moss’s numbers are a dud like many other good RBs getting 7-10 touches a game and little of it passing game work – all you can do is pray for a TD.

 

 -- D.J. Dallas (7-31-1, 2-8-0/2) has been better in his two emergency starts than Singletary or Moss have been in any back-to-back games this year. Dallas is getting the full run of the backfield due to injury, and he’s doing a solid job with it.

The moment Carson or Hyde are back…it’s over for Dallas for now. But we might get one more week out of DJD, if Carson takes another week off. We’ll know later this week.

 

 -- Two IDPs to point out…

New SEA DE Carlos Dunlap (5 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 3.0 TFLs) splashed in his debut. He’s in a good spot to be the main pass rusher for this team and pace for 10+ sacks in a season type of work here. And Dunlop has been a producer for years.

BUF LB A.J. Klein (5 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 2.0 sacks, 4 QB hits, 1 PD, 1 FF) has been filling in nicely for Matt Milano, who is now on I.R.

The past 4 games, with Milano out, Klein has averaged 5.3 total tackles, 1.3 QB hits, 0.6 sacks, 0.3 FF.

 

 -- The Bills defense really dominated Russell Wilson for about 3.25 quarters, then Wilson went nuts with the all-pass against a prevent comeback attempt.

Sean McDermott may be the best defensive mind in the game. He’s getting key defenders back healthy bit-by-bit. They’ve been dominant in the past but not even close this year. I see their DST tide is turning a bit.

There may be a window with them Weeks 13-16: at SF, PIT, at DEN, at NE… the three road games could be against Mullens, Lock, Stidham.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

38 = Moss

31 = Singletary

 

27 = Kroft

25 = Knox

14 = Gillam

 

31 = Hollister

26 = Olsen

21 = Dissly

 

31 = Homer

20 = Dallas

13 = A Collins