R.C. Fischer

FFM

28 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Saints 28, Patriots 13

Jameis Winston played some of the worst quarterbacking you’ll see in the NFL this game, but the guy has to be the luckiest player in the NFL. Truly. Not saying that because I can’t stand him. In fact, he’s so lucky I’m starting to think I should endorse him and just glom onto it…roll with the trend/what’s working.

You want to know about this game in a nutshell, in one play? Here it is: https://youtu.be/qgYDtaeuLy4

A ball that the QB should just eat…even if he thinks the penalty is on the opponent, you have no need to risk this – Winston is hit, wrapped up, his eyes drop to the ground because he’s about to be pulled down for a sack (so he has lost sight of the entire end zone situation)…but the pull down sack attempt actually spins him back upright for a second, so (falling down backwards) he blindly tosses it to the end zone – where Marquez Callaway outfights a DB for a TD.

Aside from that play, this was a battle of coaches trying to out-run game, hide their QB’s deficiencies, and play good defense to get over the other team. The Saints have the better O-Line and defense…and more energy as a ‘team’, so they got the win…over lifeless New England.

Every week, the legend of Bill Belichick gets another round of tarnish.

What will people say about Belichick if Tom Brady returns to New England and drops 40+ points in a blowout win and the Patriots are sitting (1-3) with the season essentially over for them…humiliated by their ‘ex’ in what will be one of the highest rated regular-season games in the NFL in a long time?

We project 6-7 wins for New England, possibly 8 wins this season…because of a schedule littered with bottom tier teams (like the Patriots are). But this is not a good team. It’s not even a young emerging team. It just exists like a pickup basketball game where random players are thrown together on a team.

The Saints win and go to (2-1). This is a good football team that could win the NFC South over Tom Brady, if they didn’t have Winston – who eventually will burn the Saints with his terrible play. The Saints playoff chances are directly correlated to how long they roll with Winston when the dark times hit. We’re projecting (9-8) for the Saints right now, but any QB changes can shift this 1-2 wins.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Sean Payton is now playing to the strengths of this team: a good-to-great offensive line and a top 5 or so NFL defense. Gone are the old run-and-gun Saints. Now, it’s a heavy run game and good+ defense, protecting their terrible QB.

Winston’s passing yards in his three games with NO in 2021: 148-111-128. The Saints are #5 in rushing attempts in the NFL, however. They are also #32/last in passing attempts.

They’re hiding Winston, which makes me wonder why they even bother with him…because all he is risk waiting to happen. Unnecessary risk. They need a game manager, and they have the opposite. It’s a bold strategy. https://youtu.be/9HVejEB5uVk

Because this is the lowest volume in the NFL passing game – you’re hosed on Callaway-Deonte-Trautman…Michael Thomas (if/when he returns). All you got is a lot of Alvin Kamara (28-89-0, 3-29-1/4) and now red zone Taysom Hill (6-32-1) as a wrinkle.

Kamara is going to take way more work than he ever has…way more hits to his wiry body. Tony Jones as a hold/bet on the starting RB getting hurt…it isn’t a bad hold & hope #2 RB back of the roster guy.

 -- Mac Jones (30-51 for 271 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs) is already a better QB than Jameis Winston will ever be or has been. Jones is progressing nicely. This was the first game where I saw him really working down field with more purpose.

Mac is the current favorite in the ‘who wound up the best rookie QB in 2021’ sweepstakes.

Zach Wilson is dying in a terrible Jets offense. Justin Fields was never as good as Jones, but he’s mobile and decent…but he’s stuck in a terrible Chicago offense. Trevor Lawrence just isn’t as good as Jones, in general. And Trey Lance can’t be trusted to play QB yet in the NFL. So, by process of elimination it’s Jones as the top QB…which is going to make fans of NYJ-CHI-SF all kick themselves all offseason, but the media will only focus on Jones being a better QB than Wilson (to them). The media will cover for Fields-Lance for as long as they can.

Jones is progressing nicely, but only has so much upside with this increasingly behind-the-times coaching staff.

 -- Mac lost his #1 pass target, James White to injury…not sure how much time he’ll miss. Losing White and the Pats quick deficit to New Orleans all forced Jones to have to open it up to all his other options.

Jakobi Meyers (9-94-0/14) is the winner in that equation.

YTD Targets for NE:

29 = Meyers

18 = Agholor

16 = Jonnu

14 = J White

14 = Bourne

13 = H Henry

I should’ve put Meyers on the Three things/Five Players Waivers to trust…right in the Hunter Renfrow range as a PPR WR body that’s working. But it’s apropos I overlooked him…Meyers is always overlooked, even by me.

6.3 rec. (9.7 targets), 58.7 yards, 0.0 TDs per game = Meyers through Week 3

Meyers is the 13th most targeted WR in the NFL right now. He’s a legit PPR hopeful…lot’s of catches, decent yards, but low probability of TDs.

 -- The loss of James White springs J.J. Taylor (1-2-0, 2-3-0/2) to some life in the NE backfield. He is going to be the future James White, and the future might be now if White is out an extended period of time. Mac Jones needs/wants that checkdown option…Taylor can provide that but has nowhere near the time/experience as White.

I’m not sure JJT will get enough work to truly matter for FF just yet, even with White out. And Brandon Bolden (who led all NE RBs in snap counts this game) might get more time due to his experience.

 -- Damien Harris (6-14-0, 2-0-0/2) has not been running the ball very effectively this year. It’s either an O-Line issue, or Harris isn’t that good. This might lead to more J.J. Taylor opportunity as well.

Rhamondre Stevenson was a healthy scratch…he’s only likely to matter if Harris gets hurt. He’s getting the rookie treatment Harris did a few years ago, but in desperation – he may get the call.

But we have a ‘watch’ warning here – I think Belichick is getting frustrated with Harris. Brandon Bolden (3-0-0, 3-23-0/4) played a lot in the 2nd-half here. A more trusted pass blocker.

A lot of negative news on Harris this week – and then facing Tampa Bay’s run defense…this could kill off Harris for FF value for several weeks. You might be able to dump him on an unsuspecting RB-desperate person.

 -- The public was all over the Patriots-DST Week 3…while the Saints-DST was under 50% owned nationally.

The Patriots didn’t really embarrass Tua Week 1, and they lost the game. They got trampled by the NO run game here. Zach Wilson/the Jets handed this DST a gift Week 2…it wasn’t a super-menacing defensive performance but great output/FF stats. Outside of the Jets gift week, the Patriots defense isn’t really playing all that well…not like people think (from the past).

Consider they have played three of the worst offenses/QBs in the NFL and were FF duds in two of the games. They face TB this week, so they will be dropped in FF leagues in places. You might consider picking them up and sitting on them. Pats get HOU Week 5 and the Jets Week 7. Have one DST for Weeks 4 and 6, use the Pats Weeks 5 and 7.

You know what a really nice fit is? NE with CIN DST…

Week 4 = CINN hosting JAX

Week 5 = NE at HOU

Week 6 = CIN at DET

Week 7 = NE hosting NYJ

Week 8 = CIN at NYJ

A five-game stretch with good DSTs facing NYJ 2x, HOU, DET, JAX

 -- The Saints DST is hot…this is a really good defense and CB Bradley Roby only played 2 snaps, as they get him up to speed. If Roby ends up starting/playing heavy snaps with Lattimore and Adebo – it’s a special secondary developing.

Rookie CB Paulsen Adebo (5 tackles) is so good…he might be the real DROY, if not for Micah Parsons.

Snap Counts of Interest:

69 = Meyers

58 = Agholor

55 = Bourne

52 = H Henry

30 = Jonnu

33 = Bolden

22 = Dam Harris

10 = JJ Taylor

06 = J White

51 = Trautman

30 = G Griffin

08 = Juwan Johnson

38 = Callaway

29 = Stills

19 = Deonte

Ross Jacobs

FFM

28 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Vikings 30, Seahawks 17 

The Seahawks jumped out to an early 17-7 lead and looked like they might run away with it, but it was all Minnesota from there. They scored 23 unanswered points and completely shut out Seattle in the 2nd half.

These are two really similar teams. Both have good QB's, a great starting WR duo, good RB, and both have suspect defenses. The Vikings are a little weaker through the air on defense, and the Seahawks are a little weaker on the ground. Neither is particularly good and it's going to hold them back. The difference maker in this game was Minnesota finally getting pressure on Wilson in the 2nd half which halted a few drives. Seattle never really got close to Cousins. I suspect both of these teams finish with somewhere around 10 wins depending on schedule and luck, not bad, probably in the playoffs but also not real Superbowl contenders.

Fantasy Notes

--Kirk Cousins (30-38 for 323 yards, 3 TD/0 INT) is on fire. He's quietly averaging over 300 yards passing and 2.6 TD's per game through the first three weeks. There are a couple of rough games through his schedule, but by and large he's going to be playing a lot of weak defenses. I'm not sure why he gets overlooked every year, but it's looking like another top 10 finish for Cousins this year. He's a great #2 QB to have right now behind Mahomes/Murray/Herbert.

--With Dalvin Cook sitting this one out, the workload went to his backup Alexander Mattison (26-112-0, 6-59-0/8) and I have to say, it was hard to tell the difference. I guess that's a little bit of a compliment for Mattison. He did look as good as I've ever seen him here. But mostly it's just that Cook has never really been all that impressive to me. Why are you paying him so much money when Mattison can do the same job? Mattison is obviously a great guy to play until Cook comes back.

--In the passing game it looks like Cousins isn't going to lean on just one or two guys. He's spreading the ball around to whoever is open. Here it mostly went to Justin Jefferson (9-118-1/11). Jefferson might be a tick or two down from his rookie season production by the time this year is over. He just doesn't look like a dominant receiver, more like another solid player in a good offense. That stat line looks nice and I'm sure Jefferson owners think everything is fine once again, but I wasn't super impressed by this performance. Jefferson wasn't dominating Seattle and it was quite surprising to see him with that big a stat difference over Adam Thielen (6-50-1/9) who I thought Cousins was looking for more frequently.

Speaking of Thielen, we might be looking at another low yardage total for him this year, but it doesn't matter because he keeps catching TD's. He's got 18 total in his last 18 games.

--Tyler Conklin (7-70-1/8) was more integrated than I've seen him before. He's not a threat to be an elite TE or anything, but he's serviceable. He's going to need the TD's to really have a useful week. Otherwise we're going to see a lot of 4-35-0 lines from him.

--I was excited to see how KJ Osborn (2-26-0/2) would follow up his breakout last week. Spoiler alert: he didn't. Osborn didn't get his first target until the very end of the 3rd quarter and only managed 2 for the game. He looks fantastic like RC said, but he's still not a major part of this offense. The RB still comes first, then Jefferson and Thielen, and finally Conklin and Osborn depending on gameflow and matchup. You can't count on him for fantasy right now but he'll likely have a few splash spots every 3rd or 4th game.

--Nothing has changed as far as Seattle's offense goes. They still want to run the ball with Chris Carson (12-80-1, 2-2-0/2) first and foremost. I don't know why, but I know that's the plan. Carroll loves Carson and thinks he's more important than Russell apparently, even when they are losing by 10 points in the 4th quarter. Carson left this game for a short period at one point and came back in the game a bit later, but then left again shortly after. There is some talk of a possible hamstring injury, but we don't have any solid information on this yet but it's something to monitor.

If you have Carson, or if you are desperate for RB production, you might grab Alex Collins (2-8-0) for a week or two. He was the only RB that took carries other than Carson and probably would get the lion's share of the early down workload if Carson had to miss time. I can't guarantee it would be worth much though because Travis Homer was running the 2-minute offense and even Penny Hart got a few late snaps.

--Russell Wilson (23-32 for 298, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-7-0) is going to have another frustrating year for fantasy owners. He just doesn't get the same volume throwing as most other top QB's and his incredible efficiency can't always make up for that. He's still a QB1 but probably closer to 12 than he is to 1.

--I warned you about Tyler Lockett (4-31-0/4) last week. Just because his first two games were huge does not automatically mean everything is fine and he's a WR1 lock every week now. This offense just doesn't pass often enough and these receivers tend to go hot and cold. Lockett had a couple of big games, then Metcalf will, and they rotate some more. It's going to be a roller coaster ride with this guy all year. Hope you're good/lucky at starting him on his monster weeks.

--Let's talk DK Metcalf (6-107-1/9). He looks fantastic. We've always known he had the body of a Greek god and phenomenal athleticism, but his struggles with route running are well documented. If all you can do is run deep then you're easy to defend. I'm here to report that Metcalf is running actual routes now, short and medium, he's making sharp cuts...he's no longer a one trick pony. 

I still want to exercise caution for two reasons however. 1) This is still a low volume passing game. 2) This game was played against a weak Vikings secondary. I think it's entirely possible though that we see Metcalf finally become one of the most dominant receivers in the league and the true #1 for Seattle. I want to see a couple more games first, but that's on the table now.

Gerald Everett (5-54-0/5) got his nice box score this week after a couple of letdown games early on. It just looked like random work though, no actual intention to get him the ball. I would still avoid this situation.

Snap Counts of Interest

54 = Tyler Conklin

30 = Ben Ellefson

72 = Adam Thielen

62 = Justin Jefferson

44 = KJ Osborn

42 = Gerald Everett

20 = Will Dissly

16 = Travis Homer

14 = Alex Collins

8 = Penny Hart

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

27 September 2021

Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

27 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Panthers 24, Texans 9 

Yaaaaaawwnn. This was possibly the most boring game we'll watch all year. Sam Darnold vs Davis Mills does not make for riveting tv. So to help me out with this game recap I've recruited one of the color commentators from this game, Troy Aikman, to help me out.

How are you doing Troy?

I'm good. Didn't get much sleep last night so my eyes are a bit red and swollen. It happens a lot, but I'm excited for a great game of football!

Troy, the game is already over. It was last Thursday. You were there commenting on it.

Right, right, I remember. I just spend so much time studying all these players that sometimes I forget what day of the week it is.

Well those two things don't seem related, but I'm glad to hear you study every player in so much depth because I have a few questions to ask about some of the younger guys. Let's start with Sam Darnold. As everyone is aware by now, he is finally free of the clutches of the worst football coach alive, Adam Gase, and he seems to be doing pretty well. What do you think about the turnaround Darnold is making in Carolina?

I like this guy, always have. He's got great feet in the pocket and a strong arm, makes good decisions. He just needed to clean up the turnovers and you're seeing him do that. I think he's going to be a really good player.

I mean, turnovers come from bad decision making and he's still doing that but ok. He also doesn't throw many passes further downfield than 10 yards so I'm not sure about the big arm either. Do you think playing the Texans, Jets, and Jameis Winston led Saints has anything to do with his success?

No, football is football. Opponent doesn't matter. What's important is that you're playing good football and winning games and Darnold is doing that right now. I really like him.

So you said. Ok well what some of the young pass catchers for the Panthers? Can you give me a breakdown of Terrace Marshall?

I really like this guy. He's a big, strong kid, good hands. He played at LSU with his offensive Coordinator Joe Brady, so Brady is really going to know how to use him.

Well, familiarity is great I guess. Not sure I'd draft someone just because I knew them, but this coaching staff seems to do an awful lot of that. What about Tommy Tremble? He had a rushing touchdown here. That seems pretty athletic for a tight end!

Yeah, it really is. I like this kid. He's a good blocker, really loves football. That's going to help him as a pro.

Umm, ok. Can you tell me anything about his skill set and how it might translate? How does he look as a receiver to you?

He looks really good. I like him.

Fascinating. As you know, the Panthers star player RB Christian McCaffrey got hurt here and is going to be out a few weeks with a hamstring injury. His backup is rookie Chuba Hubbard, a guy that Matt Rhule is familiar with from his time at Baylor when they played Oklahoma St. There are reports that Rhule's wife was at that game and watched Hubbard run wild to help his team beat Rhule and she suggested to her husband that they should draft Hubbard. Doesn't that sound a little strange to you?

No, not at all. He's a good player. I really like him and so does the team.

Right. You've said that. But can he play? He's just an ok athlete and doesn't seem to have a lot going for him.

He ran a 4.36 40-time at his pro day. That's pretty fast! Being fast helps you be a good football player.

Actually the 4.36 times were random social media posts. Jim Nagy, the executive director of the Senior Bowl had him timed at 4.50, which is ok at his size but nothing special.

But he ran for 2,000 yards at Oklahoma St and there's not a lot of guys that can do that. I'm pretty sure all the ones that did are in the Hall of Fame now. He's a guy that I really like and I think he has a bright future.

You're kind of dense, aren't you Troy?

I haven't slept much lately. That's why my eyes are so red and puffy.

Tell me about Houston's rookie QB Davis Mills.

He's a big, strong kid with a big arm. He can make all the throws. The team really likes him and is high on him. I like him too.

I never would have guessed. He struggled a lot in the preseason. Did you see anything here to give you hope that he might be better than that?

Yeah, he really threw the ball well, made good decisions. He has a big arm. I really li...

We got it. Thanks Troy. Thanks for the commentary. You really illuminated some things for us today.

I'm going to go take a nap.

You sound like you need one.

Fantasy Notes

--Can you trust Sam Darnold (23-34 for 304 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 8-11-2) for fantasy now? No. Don't even go there. He's played three of the worst teams in the league (well, the Saints had key defenders out for their Week 2) and has had an awesome defense helping him out. Getting short field position consistently can make even terrible QB's look good. See the Saints week 1 game vs. GB for evidence.

Now he doesn't have his best player (CMC) to take attention away, and the defense has lost an important piece as well. Luckily for Darnold the schedule is pretty light on good teams. He's likely going to have some halfway decent games this year because he gets to play so many bad teams, but against the good teams you're going to see old Darnold because nothing has really changed. Even here he didn't throw a TD and only had a decent fantasy day because he ran in a couple of short scores. Save yourself the headache and avoid him as usual.

--Chuba Hubbard (11-52-0, 3-27-0/5) will step in for McCaffrey for a few weeks and there are some analysts touting him as an RB1 for that time. You've got to be kidding me. You can't take an average RB, give him McCaffrey's workload (which he isn't likely to get because he's not McCaffrey) and expect the same results. Hubbard is nowhere close to McCaffrey. You also have to worry about the threat of Royce Freeman (5-17-0, 1-8-0/1) who is the superior back of the two, although as Troy and I discussed Matt Rhule loves him some Chuba because his wife loves Chuba and that might trump all. There's also the matter of this offensive line not being very good. McCaffrey can make that work. Not so sure about Hubbard.

Don't sell your soul for Hubbard. McCaffrey will be back in a few weeks anyways. He's just not a guy to really get excited for.

--DJ Moore (8-126-0/12) is the clear #1 WR here as I've been talking about going back to the preseason. Whatever connection Darnold had with Robby Anderson (1-8-0/2) doesn't matter now. Anderson is a speedster, downfield threat, and Darnold can barely get the ball past 10 yards. That leads to Moore getting a ton of short passes because it's the safe throw for Darnold. With McCaffrey out for a bit though we might see teams clamp down on Moore knowing it's all Sam throws. Of course, after some of the decision making I watched this weekend in other games, I'm not sure we can trust coaches to make sound, rational decisions and actually come up with a decent gameplan.

--Scratch whatever I said about Brandon Zylstra last week. He's a non-factor. Not sure why he was so involved last week, but it's still Terrace Marshall (4-48-0/5) as the #3 in title and #2 for stats at WR. Just like with Moore, Marshall plays the role of a possession receiver in the short game, and that suits Darnold much better than trying to throw bombs to Anderson. It's not going to be worth much, but it's something if you're desperate.

--Dan Arnold (2-23-0/4) is still not being used nearly enough. He's one of the most talented pass catchers on this team, but it's going to go to waste.

(Literally 2 seconds after I sent this article to RC we found out that Carolina traded Arnold to Jacksonville for CJ Henderson. That's a great, great move by Rhule and the Panthers and yet another completely unbelievable one for Meyer and the Jags.)

--The fact that Carolina was willing to part with Arnold means they are about to give Tommy Tremble (1-30-0/1, 1-7-1) significant time as a receiver. He's fine I guess. I've covered Tremble a lot going back to the draft and you could do a lot worse. He's a decent athlete overall. He's not better than Arnold, but I would trade a TE I'm using in a rotation for a young, stud CB any day of the week. Tremble is now in a 50-50 split with Ian Thomas but Thomas is being used as a blocker almost exclusively. 

For what it's worth Tremble is going to get all the receiving work at TE now. It's yet another safe throw for Darnold so it might be somewhat decent. Tremble is a favorite of Rhule's so you know they are going to push him. Being the head coach's pet is often worth more than being talented.

--Brandin Cooks is now the 5th most targeted player in the league through 3 weeks with 32 and the 3rd leading receiver with 322 yards. I don't see why that would stop seeing as teams seem to be completely unaware that Cooks is a good player and Houston's only real option to move the ball. Not sure I've seen a team actually try to cover him yet. He's going to be lacking in TD's this year but should still make a nice ppr option.

--My only other note for Houston is on Davis Mills (19-28 for 168 yards, 1 TD/0 INT). He played quite a bit better than in the preseason where he looked like an abject disaster. He did that while hanging in against a ferocious pass rush. Honestly I was quite impressed watching him work here. Maybe he can do ok after all. This team still sucks though so don't expect any miracles.

IDP Notes

--Carolina lost rookie corner Jaycee Horn for the year and that might have really hurt their chances of being a shutdown defense for the rest of the year, but they smartly went and traded for Jacksonville castoff CJ Henderson first thing this morning. This is a fantastic move and keeps Carolina's hopes alive on defense. Combined with their schedule they could easily still be a top 5 defense in 2021.

Snap Counts of Interest

45 = Terrace Marshall

19 = Brandon Zylstra

37 = Ian Thomas

27 = Dan Arnold

19 = Tommy Tremble

40 = Chuba Hubbard

11 = Royce Freeman

34 = Akins

31 = Ph Brown

21 = D Johnson

19 = Ingram

09 = Lindsay

08 = Burkhead

R.C. Fischer

FFM

25 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Broncos 23, Jaguars 13

The Jaguars, shockingly, struck first in this game…a nice TD pass by Trevor Lawrence had the Jags up 7-0. Up 7-3, later, the Jags went for a field goal to extend the lead in the 2nd-quarter…and then Josh Lambo had an epically bad shank of a kick/miss. Urban Meyer was shaking his head in disbelief.

Then the rain started.

Then the Jags' drops of passes started (rain not helping).

Then the Broncos offense perked up.

Then it was all Broncos until a late Jags KR TD made it semi-respectable.

What’s really weird here is, you’d think this was just the Jags being bad again…and they had their head-shaking moments for sure, but for most of this game the Jags were battling with Denver. This wasn’t easy for the Broncos.

I was, dare I say, impressed with Jacksonville here. They played some good football in spurts…but then some of the bad outweighed and dragged down all the good. Denver wasn’t as strong as I thought here, nor Jacksonville as bad as I felt after watching this on tape mid-week. The tape says, Jacksonville is not a total ‘loser’ team. We’ll get into more of why I think that with the player comments.

Denver is (2-0) and tied with Las Vegas (2-0) for first place in the AFC West. Do I need to type that again to believe it? The Chiefs (1-1) are in last place. I projected Denver to be (3-0) out of the gates, on their way to the playoffs…the first leg of that prediction is about to become true…maybe. The Jets are scrappy, like Jacksonville, and might give Denver a shock if they’re not careful.

Jacksonville isn’t the complete rollover and die team I thought, at least not in this game. We’ll see if they can keep it close at all with Arizona this week.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- First things first…this was a stellar game by Courtland Sutton (9-159-0/12). He just took over this game. I’d go so far as to say if Sutton didn’t play in this game, the Broncos would have lost…Sutton was that important.

Sutton is not a random WR2…he’s not the #2 WR behind Jerry Jeudy. He is a dominant, stud #1 WR…and Teddy Bridgewater (26-34 for 328 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) knows it. This connection isn’t going away.

Sutton nearly had a 30+ yard TD to really send his FF scoring into orbit.

 -- Trevor Lawrence (14-33 for 118 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) had terrible statistics but I thought he played a pretty good game…and made me pause from making as radical of fun of him as normal.

When you can get well-trained QBs into a 7-on-7 type groove…they can do some work. Lawrence isn’t horrible, but his flaws show when he’s under pressure. He had his bad throws here some, but he’s also let down by receiver drops too much as well.

If Lawrence has time, comfort in the pocket he can be OK. And the Jags have only allowed him to be sacked 2 times this year…2nd-best in the NFL (SF #1 with just 1 sack allowed). This O-Line was beautiful against a pretty good defense. If Lawrence gets this kind of protection and it doesn’t start downpouring in every game, and his receivers cut back on drops…he might have some decent games ahead.

He’s still not generational, but he’s well-schooled…and in the right situation he’s decent. It’s probably too much to ask for him to break through with this team as a rookie. But better days might be ahead if he gets this protection every week.

 -- Javonte Williams (13-64-0, 1-10-0/1) is such a pleasure to watch. The guy has star written all over him, but he may be splitting with Melvin Gordon (13-31-02-38-0/2) for many more weeks…maybe all season.

But if Gordon goes down…

 -- The Broncos are using two TEs fairly regularly, sometimes together, sometimes rotating, which means two things…

1) Noah Fant (4-33-1/6) has a little bit of a cap on his upside.

2) Albert Okwuegbunam (4-24-0/4) has a pulse in deep roster leagues looking for plausible TE2s. Albert O. is #16 among TEs YTD in catches (7), #18 in PPR PPG so far this season.

 -- Two useless Fantasy WRs…

1) D.J. Chark (1-19-0/4)…the wrong WR for Lawrence’s short game. DJC has caught 4 of 16 targets from Trevor this year, and most all the disconnects are not Chark’s fault. Lawrence is not a great downfield thrower…and Trevor’s real connection is with Marvin Jones (6-55-1/11).

2) Laviska Shenault (2-0-0/7) got hurt in this game and might miss Week 3…but he’s so slow in the bubble screen game that he’s becoming a wasted throw. He’ll catch passes all day long, but he just doesn’t do much with them after he catches them.

 -- Teddy Bridgewater is taking special off-field interest in K.J. Hamler (1-5-0/3), as mentor…and with Jerry Jeudy out, we saw Teddy take a couple longer shots with KJH…that didn’t connect. I have a feeling (that’s all it is) they will connect on one this week vs. NYJ.

 -- Broncos starting ILB  Josey Jewell got hurt and is done for the year. Justin Strnad (7 tackles) then took over and looked really good/ready to be the starter. I know the Broncos claimed Micah Kiser from the Rams, but Strnad has been a Fangio favorite since they drafted him. It’s Strnad’s job to lose.

 -- Josh Lambo (0/2 FGs) had been one of the best kickers in football for the past 5+ years, but he got hurt last year and this year he looks dreadful. Lambo is 0-fer-3 on FGs so far this season. His 53-yard miss in this game looked like a fan was kicking for a million-dollar prize giveaway stunt or something.

Snap Counts of Interest:

41 = JRob

14 = Hyde

53 = Fant

37 = Albert O.

53 = Sutton

51 = Patrick

49 = Hamler

41 = Gordon

28 = Javonte

Ross Jacobs

FFM

25 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Buccaneers 48, Falcons 25 (By Ross Jacobs)

Oh boy do I have a good one for you today. This game was eye-opening to watch for a number of reasons. So much to unpack so let's get to it.

The first thing you might notice is the score. Buccaneers are just rolling right along ready to defend their title...or maybe not.

I watched this game back twice just to make sure I didn't miss anything, and I have to say that the Falcons arguably outplayed the Bucs considering their talent levels. They had a few unlucky breaks early and got in a hole but managed to claw their way back into the game. 

Atlanta got the ball back early in the 4th quarter trailing only 28-25 and TB only had 28 because of a lucky interception earlier in the game. The Falcons got backed up on their own 4 after a TB punt took a nice bounce and after the Falcons got stopped they punted it away but it was a crappy punt and Tampa got the ball near the 50. Brady promptly punched in the score and the Bucs were back on top by 10.

There was still time for Atlanta to try and get it back, but Ryan got two drives back to back where a pass got tipped right to a defender for easy pick 6's. And just like that the game was over.

This was NOT a Buccaneers beatdown of a hapless Falcons team. Not even close. The Falcons showed a level of grit and tenacity I haven't seen from the Bucs yet. Tampa seems to have a little of the arrogance the Rams are showing right now. We've got Tom Brady (or Stafford) and we're invincible. I'm not sure which of those teams is more overrated right now.

Don't get me wrong, Tampa is still a very good team. Their defense isn't nearly as menacing as last year though, but the offense is better so it offsets a little. They will be in the mix for #1 seed in the NFC. Right this second though my money would be elsewhere (likely in Arizona).

The Falcons are starting to right their ship. They looked atrocious against the Eagles, but this was a whole different squad or so it appeared. The defense isn't great and seems particularly vulnerable over the middle, but they were flying around aggressively, coming after Brady, hitting hard, and just generally looked much better than last week. The offense is starting to get it's feet under it too, and we'll talk about that more in a minute. After what I saw here I'm wondering if this team might not be closer to 6 or 7 wins than the 2-3-4 we assumed after last week. I want to see another game to be sure of the trends.

Fantasy Notes

--There are a few big-ticket items to cover, but you know I have to start with longtime FFM favorite Cordarrelle Patterson (7-11-1, 5-58-1/7). I am so happy for C-Patt that he's finally getting his long overdue moment in the spotlight. I just wish this had happened years ago. Thank all those genius offensive coordinators who couldn't figure out how to throw him a damn screen pass. Anyways, this was exactly what we were hoping for (and what I honestly did not think would happen). Credit to Arthur Smith, he knows Patterson is his best weapon and he's using him, not just at RB but also at WR and Patterson is delivering.

Don't be scared off by the low ypc here. Patterson was running better than Mike Davis (9-38-0, 7-25-0/7) the entire game. He just had a couple of late carries where Tampa blew up the line and hit him for big losses, and Davis had the opposite thing happen. He was getting stuffed most of the day but had 2 runs for about 10 yards apiece on the last drive after the game was over and Tampa didn't care to boost his average. This is a tough TB run defense and Patterson was easily the more effective runner.

In addition, his passes are a mix of dumpoffs out of the backfield, but Smith is mixing in a few short passes from WR alignments. All of Davis's catches were dumpoffs and about half of them, again, came very late after the game was over.

I watched every snap from these two guys. Don't be afraid that Davis took 46 snaps to Patterson's 24. The official tally doesn't do the game justice. What actually happened was much closer to a 50-50 split than you would assume.

Davis was in the first 2 snaps then Patterson replaced him for 3rd down. That pattern repeated and then things changed. Patterson was the lead for several snaps including a couple at WR. They rotated back and forth for most of the first half but by my count Patterson had a slight lead or was at least even at that point. Then at the very end of the 2nd half, about 5 minutes left to go, suddenly Davis was in on every snap for about 8 or 9 plays. After they came back from halftime Davis was still the sole guy in for about a half dozen plays before Patterson returned to the game and they began rotating again. I haven't seen anything on a Patterson injury, so this is pure speculation, but based on the pattern I suspect maybe Patterson got shaken up for a period of time there and then was ok'ed to come back in 100%. Davis also took a handful of snaps by himself on the last drive of the game before Atlanta shifted to their backups and just ran the clock out themselves. If I'm correct about the Patterson injury scare then this is basically a 50-50 split already.

What I do know is that Patterson is by far the more effective and dangerous of the two. He scored 2 TD's here and had shots at a couple of others. At one point he caught a pass in the flats, broke two tackles, and looked like he'd have a nice 30 yard receiving TD but it was called back after he barely tapped his toe on the sideline. Not long after he lined up inside the 10 as a wildcat QB but fumbled the snap and took a loss. Ridley would score soon after. Patterson was getting far more looks inside the 5-10 yard line than Davis and that is leading to more scores.

His TD reception was a slick one-handed catch on a poorly thrown ball. His TD run was a toss play where he juked a safety out of his shoes. He even had a throwback screen on the left sideline where he broke a few tackles and took off down the field. All in all, there was a very concerted effort to get Patterson the ball, and it should be noted that from the very first kickoff Tampa squib/pooch kicked the ball to keep it away from Patterson on the return. They knew he was a threat and were trying to stop him. This is not a fad. This is not going away. Patterson is the top threat on this team right now, a possible RB1.5 threat, and if Davis goes down with injury it could be game on. Just note, he won't be the top threat for long because...

--Kyle Pitts (5-73-0/6) is so damn good it's unreal. He is essentially Calvin Johnson who occasionally comes in to block. He led the team in receiving here but you would never have known it from watching the game. He flashed only once after he juked his defender off the snap like a WR, broke over the middle, and had to reach way behind him to haul in the catch one-handed, never broke stride and took off between two defenders who had an angle on him. It was a surreal play, and one we're going to start seeing more and more...eventually...

You see, the one problem with Pitts right now is that he is not remotely being featured. He's playing a huge number of snaps, and the routes he was running were a little more varied and creative than last week, but I think Smith is still trying to manage him, hasn't taken off the training wheels just yet. The good news is that Pitts is able to lead this team in receiving while essentially being the 4th or 5th target right now. But it looks like they are slowly building up to unleashing him fully, and I think that day comes sooner rather than later. It's kind of like with Justin Jefferson last year. Through 2 games in 2020 he had 5 catches for 70 yards, and then in week 3 he exploded. That may be what we're about to see happen. Not saying it will for sure be week 3, but I do believe that explosion is coming.

Pitts is a beast, as good as advertised. Just try to remain patient. I know we all want our shiny new toys to immediately be weapons of mass destruction, but things rarely work out like that. This bet is going to pay off.

--Coming into this rewatch I was concerned about one thing for Pitts...Matt Ryan (35-46 for 300 yards, 2 TD/3 INT). He looked terrible last week and then you see his line this week and think it's more of the same. Well I'm happy to report that Ryan is mostly fine, he hasn't suddenly become terrible at football. He's not great, that's for sure, but this was a heavy pressure defense coming against his leaky offensive line, and he played a pretty smart, controlled game and had his team in contention. The three interceptions? All flukes. Literally all three were passes that were tipped at the line by TB defenders that came through the line essentially unblocked and the ball bounced straight up in the air to a Buccaneer all three times. Very unlucky but not Ryan's fault.

It does look like Ryan has lost a little arm strength though. He tossed a deep pass to a wide open Ridley once that floated in the air so long it gave Tampa time to close the gap and knock the ball loose. It's not a huge issue, just something to be aware of. The TD's might be a little harder to come by this year and that might keep Pitts as just the overall TE 4-5 but it's splitting hairs. Ridley is the one that's in trouble.

Speaking of Calvin Ridley (7-63-1/10) if you have him I'd sell now off a decent game. He's still got name value from last year, so don't sell him for pennies, but I'd try to turn him into something useful before you're left holding a WR2. That's all he is at this point. He'll still get a good number of targets this year, but he is not remotely the top guy for this new staff. Patterson is the weapon right now and will be the sidekick to Pitts very soon, they still want Davis to get a good number of carries, and that leaves Ridley as the 3rd or 4th option to go along with Ryan's weakening arm. Not a recipe for great fantasy success.

The only other notable fantasy “maybe” for Atlanta was Russell Gage (5-28-0/7) but you could do better. This isn't the high flying Falcons passing offense of the past few years. The volume is lower (although higher here because of the nature of the game) and the efficiency is lower. Gage also got hurt during the game and is out for week 3 which opens up more opportunity in the short term for Olamide Zaccheaus (2-22-0/4) but everything I said about Gage applies to him too.

--Ok 1500 words just on Atlanta's offense, so what do I have for Tampa Bay?

Not much, sorry. We know what these guys are. It's the Tom Brady show (24-36 for 276, 5 TD/0 INT) and for good reason. He looks as good as I've seen him in years. His arm is strong (he overthrew Evans on a 50 yard bomb...at 1000 years old...), he's accurate, making good decisions, I don't know, the guy must have sold his soul at this point. I don't know how else to explain it. Just be aware that he's getting a lot of TD's per attempt right now and that probably (probably) won't hold. You'd think at some point he won't have so many short fields or someone will score a rushing TD, but you never know when you're messing with the supernatural...

--Brady doesn't have a top target. Mike Evans (5-75-2/9) popped as expected after his poor outing last week. He looks fine and just missed on another 50 yard catch. Chris Godwin (4-62-1/5) is the co-#1 and the preferred short/medium depth target. Brady is going to feed the good matchups so these guys might have some ups and downs but both should be WR1.5's.

Antonio Brown (1-17-0/3) isn't the lead like we assumed. I was worried that he wasn't on the field week 1 for 2-WR sets, and now I'm sure of it. He's a good option and one Brady will exploit from time to time, but he's just a tick behind the other two in terms of involvement. He came up positive for COVID the middle of this week so he's probably a long shot to play Sunday. Unfortunate.

--Rob Gronkowski (4-39-2/5) is killing it for fantasy right now, but I'd be cautious if you expect that to continue. He doesn't look great honestly, not bad, but definitely a bit slower than he did a few years ago. He's lumbering a bit. He's also not a priority read for Brady. So far he's just been an open option as defenses are focused on stopping the 3 very good WR's. Gronk should have good TD's numbers moving forward as he's a great option in the redzone, but don't expect huge target/catch/yardage counts. Those days are long gone. Think of him more like 2020 Robert Tonyan.

--The two RB's are still rotating every other series in a split. Ronald Jones (6-27-0, 1-9-0/3) started the game and Leonard Fournette (11-52-0, 4-24-0/4) took the second series and so on and so forth. Fournette did end up taking a few more carries late as they tried to salt away the game and he gets a little bit more passing game work than Jones, so if you must have one you want Fournette. If either goes down with injury this suddenly gets a little more intriguing though and you might have a RB1.5 on your hands.

IDP Notes

--Nothing unexpected happened here other than Mike Edwards (4 tackles, 3 pd, 2 INT, 2 TD's) scoring two touchdowns. That will never happen again. He was just in the right place at the right time and the ball bounced right to him. No breakout here.

--As I've been warning for a year and a half now, Devin White (6 tackles) is struggling a little bit, both in real life and fantasy, now that the pieces around him aren't so strong. He's great when he gets other players to eat up blocks for him while he runs free to the play but not so good when he has to navigate traffic and do something himself. Lavonte David (8 tackles) is less heralded and always overlooked to some degree, but he's the better player.

--Atlanta's top corner AJ Terrell (2 tackles, 2 pd) got hurt mid/late game and has been ruled out against the Giants. It's another blow to an already shaky secondary. Might help Daniel Jones have another decent fantasy day.

Snap Counts of Interest

60 = Calvin Ridley

57 = Kyle Pitts

30 = Hayden Hurst

46 = Mike Davis

24 = Cordarrelle Patterson

56 = Chris Godwin

46 = Mike Evans

28 = Antonio Brown

51 = Rob Gronkowski

21 = Cam Brate

31 = Leonard Fournette

26 = Ronald Jones

R.C. Fischer

FFM

24 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Titans 33, Seahawks 30 in OT

I thought this re-watch was going to be standard fare -- a lot of Derrick Henry battling a lot of Russell Wilson, and the Henry side snuck it out in the end. But I found, after the study/watch, that I have a good collection of notes to discuss from this contest.

As for the game itself, the Seahawks had everything go right in the 1st-half and Tennessee had about everything go wrong…from penalties to drops to turnovers to broken coverages…and Seattle took a commanding 24-9 lead at the half. While watching live, I just mentally wrote this game off at the half and assumed the Titans stink and would lose.

The Titans don’t stink.

The Titans were the better or equal team here, and the fact that they overcame a 15-point deficit at the half, at Seattle, after getting blown out by Arizona last week – kudos to this team, and to Mike Vrabel (yeah, I said it).

The Titans are CLEARLY the best team in the AFC South. Their offense is really good…but it’s their defense that has gotten better which is the key. When you consider how bad the rest of the AFC South is – the Titans may be a shock contender for an AFC #1 seed and be a very tough out with Derrick Henry and friends.

The fans are down on Tennessee because the analysts are, because the analysts got mad that Tennessee got ripped by Arizona Week 1 – but when you live with the FFM knowledge that Arizona is fantastic and a possible NFC title winner…then that loss isn’t so bad. The Titans have faced two MVP candidate QBs Weeks 1-2. Now comes Eason-Z.Wilson-Trevor the next 3 weeks…before a gauntlet BUF-KC Weeks 6-7…and then it’s off to the races from there. The Titans are going 11+ wins if they can sweep the AFC South.

Seattle is now (1-1) and not as good as Arizona…so a wild card is as likely as winning the division.

The Titans are so unlucky to have their first two games against the two best teams in the league's 1st/2nd toughest division (NFC West). We need to use that knowledge to our advantage on how to play Tennessee things from here.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Julio Jones (6-128-0/8) is still good. Breaking news. Weird, but it kinda is breaking news.

I get the feeling we’ve all just accepted that Julio is getting older and has moved to unsexy pass game Tennessee…he’s being put out to pasture to play out the final year of his contract.

I would like you to consider:

1) He’s working hard in Tennessee. He’s getting chippy/trying to bully corners. He’s fighting for extra yards. He’s not fading off, he’s still fighting…maybe more energized than I’ve seen him in a year or two.

2) He’s not the speedster he used to be, but he’s still plenty fast…getting open…making catches…smartly boxing out small CBs and making his plays. He’s gone from a D.K. Metcalf type receiver to a Michael Thomas one – the reliable #1 WR worker.

3) Ryan Tannehill 2021 is exponentially better than Matt Ryan 2019-2020 (and 2021). Anyone who thinks Julio went to a worse place for production…you’re wrong.

4) Julio had his hands on a TD Week 1, but couldn’t bring it in. He also had a sweet TD catch that was controversially overturned for being out of bounds but it looked like he was good to me.

If Julio had scored a TD in each game the last two weeks, his numbers would be tracking WR1.5 right now…not the WR3-4 FF scoring he is YTD at the moment.

I think Julio Jones is a crafty ‘buy low’ from an owner who is writing Julio off. If your team is really good/going for the title…you might could add this veteran cheaper than you think. Don’t pay full price or any price…this is a try and steal stealthily moment.

 -- A.J. Brown (3-43-0/9) had a rough game…3 catches on 9 targets and 1-2 drops. It looked worse and was portrayed worse in the media than it was. I’m not thinking there is a hands issue. He doesn’t look as fast/explosive as last year, but he did have double knee clean-up surgery in January.

 -- Derrick Henry (35-182-3, 6-55-0/6) caught 6 passes in this game!

I was going to joke about how that’s more catches than in his last X games or all of last season…because, don’t you know Henry can’t catch?

Well, did you know Henry has 2 or more catches in a game in six of his last 9 games (incl. playoffs)? In those last 9 games, he has 19 catches…2.1 per game. 19 catches off 22 targets…a catch rate of 86.4%.

Who the hell keeps saying he can’t catch the ball (I’m guilty as charged of just running with an old narrative)? He looked really good catching it here.

If Henry is going 2-3 catches a game instead of 0-1…you know what that means? He is the true #1 asset in all of FF – not always-hurt Christian McCaffrey.

If we were redrafting now/today, you would not take CMC…you would take Derrick Henry…or you should.

“You know all those carries are gonna catch up with Henry!” *As Christian McCaffrey gets hurt in an early season game again on TNF Week 3 and will miss several weeks*

 -- Another TEN buy low candidate – Ryan Tannehill (27-40 for 347 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs, 4-27-0). His crime? Not having a TD pass this game…and only 1 TD pass all season.

He was so close to two passing TDs in this game, minimum. One of them the Julio reversal BS. And, again, don’t fault him for not producing huge against Arizona’s defense.

Tannehill is always distrusted, always undervalued…by me and most everyone.

Overlooking Tannehill as a nice 2nd QB emergency option and always assuming Derrick Henry is going to get hurt – two massive Tennessee-mistakes we FF-make over and over and over again.

 -- D.K. Metcalf (6-53-0/11) is transforming, but not sure what it means for FF output…but it could be great.

History lesson…

1) DKM fell in his NFL Draft because he had weak output his final year of college. Why did he? Because SEC corners and D-Cs saw that all he did was run deep routes…so they all played him to go deep, and he was rarely open for his bad QB.

2) DKM splashed in the NFL because all the millionaire coordinators who watch tape 20+ hours a day had no idea that the SEC had figured out how to neutralize Metcalf. They deployed CBs up in Metcalf’s face, and then DK just batted them away and sprinted past them deep for easy, long TDs over and over.

3) Some D-C finally figured it out in 2020 2nd-half, then the others started to copy, and thus Metcalf’s output fell off a table to end the season.

4) 2021…Seattle is adjusting…

I’ve never seen Metcalf run shorter routes in a game as much as he did here. He was like Michael Thomas (or like Julio on the other side of the field) in this game working the interior – with the added bonus that once he catches it, no one can tackle him. It’s opening up a whole new world of possibilities for DKM.

Two issues…

1) Will Seattle keep up running Metcalf on shorter routes?

2) Will DKM flop doing it? He is very clunky running routes and catching basic passes, sometimes. Will Seattle persist through it or change back to making him a deep ball guy again?

We’ll see but watching him catch a short pass with 10-yards of space because DBs are playing way back off him for the deep route…and then him running over people after the catch like he’s the WR version of Derrick Henry (not joking). It’s a real weapon that could emerge, and then he becomes a more dangerous NFL and FF WR when teams can’t just play him to run deep 95-99% of the time.

 -- Freddie Swain (5-95-1/5) was left wide open on a play in the 2nd-half and Russ hit him for a 68-yard TD. Nothing emerging here…it was just a moment. When Dee Eskridge is back, Swain goes back to a #4 WR.

 -- Let the Gerald Everett (1-3-0/2) excitement…die.

OH, they’re going to use him in so many creative ways! So far, two games, 3 targets for 23 yards total. WOW! What creativity!!

 -- MyCole Pruitt (3-43-0/3) got better treatment by the Titans than Everett did by Seattle…for millions of dollars less contract. Pruitt is good, and he was a force when they called upon him here. He played a heavy number of snaps and with Anthony Firkser out he might get some surprising numbers ahead.

I’ve always been a fan. He’s always underutilized but makes catches when they go to him.

 -- You want more Titans undervalued things? How about the Titans-DST?

This isn’t a bad unit…not great, but not bad. Their crime is facing Kyler-Russ the first two weeks. They look pretty decent to me, not great, but not the joke everyone thinks. Down 24-9 at the half, off of some fluky circumstances…they shut the door on Seattle 2nd-half to get the comeback win.

They might be a decent option in a decent matchup…like vs. TEN with Brett Hundley starting.

Snap Counts of Interest:

43 = Everett

26 = Dissly

64 = Swaim

55 = M Pruitt

21 = Tommy Hudson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

24 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Rams 27, Colts 24

The Rams were definitely the better team, not by a ton…but they played better and seemed to flip a switch when needed. On the other hand, the Rams played very lackadaisical here.

My wild theory with little to substantiate: There is such an arrogance happening with the Rams. Sean McVay is running his mouth about Matt Stafford, telling long stories about how he met and fell in love with Stafford meeting with him in Cabo in the offseason…and how connected they are and think about football the same. It’s worse than my young-and-in-love son talking about his new girlfriend now recently turned fiancée.

It all irritates me (the Stafford part, not my son…he has true love) and that’s not why (I hope it’s not why) I think I see some things here – it just looks like they think that as long as they got Stafford + McVay that nothing else matters, everything is fine. I see several concerns the first two weeks. They’ve played decent but weaker teams (CHI and then Indy dealing with injuries), and through two games the Rams have looked sharp at times, but empty at others and the weaker opponents are moving the ball against them and hanging in these games longer than they should. This Indy game was tied deep into the 4th-quarter.

The Rams were holding the lead all game, the Colts scurried back into it and then lost their QB at the worst time, and the Rams eventually won…but then you look and see that the time of possession favored Indy…both teams had similar yards, while the Colts converted more 3rd-downs and rushed for more yards. The game stats favored with a lean to the Colts here.

In fact, the Colts drove right down the field to goal-to-go in the 1st-quarter…twice…and walked away with 0 points on ridiculously bad plays called by Frank Reich/executed poorly by Carson Wentz on ‘going for it’ 4th-down and goals to go.

The Rams are winning…but the opponents have been shooting themselves in the foot to some degree – it hasn’t been awesome Rams defense or consistent control of the opponents, to my eyes. The Rams might get a huge rude awakening against Tampa Bay this week.

My grand point being…something just seems off with the Rams. That people think they are top 5 NFL great and Super Bowl contenders, but this team looks about the same/worse than last year’s team. I’ll say worse because the defense is nothing like last year’s unit, so far.

The Colts are now (0-2) and playing for their lives against (1-1) Tennessee Week 3…likely with Jacob Eason at the helm. The season may already be over for the Colts.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Jacob Eason (2-5 for 25 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) came in for Carson Wentz (20-31 for 247 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) and tried to lead a 2-minute drill to tie/win but was picked on his 2nd throw and that kinda iced it. He did get one more shot with 0:24 left but with no timeouts and a whole field to go it was useless.

Wentz sprained both of his ankles and left the game…something only Wentz could do. Wentz looks scrappy between the 20s but craps the bed on making things happen near the red zone – the 5th worst offense in the red zone to start the season. When the money is on the line…you don’t want the ball in Wentz’s hands. Signs of 2020 Wentz are rearing their head.

Week 3, Eason will likely start. He has a cannon for an arm and can make nice, preplanned throws, but if he needs to improvise or carry a team…you got problems. With any pressure he’ll throw it into trouble and get picked. Keep him clean and simple, and he’ll look terrific on throws.

 -- Matt Stafford (19-30 for 278 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is only throwing/looking good throwing to Cooper Kupp (9-163-2/11). They are beyond connected…and all the other options are FF-screwed because of it (Higbee, Woods, DJax). Essentially half of Stafford’s completions were to Kupp in this game…47% of the completions, 58% of the passing yards, 100% of the passing TDs.

And because NFL coaches are geniuses, the Colts staff just watched this unfolding and never adjusted so Stafford kept burning them with it. I’m going to be very interested in seeing If Tampa Bay locks down Kupp…if Stafford will have an answer, because he looks more erratic/uncomfortable throwing anywhere else.

 -- Example…just when you think Tyler Higbee (1-8-0/1) might be being used as a weapon after a solid Week 1, he gets one whole target Week 2…in a back-and-forth game.

 -- The big news from this game was the Darrell Henderson (13-53-1, 3-29-0/5) went down with a rib injury late and that sprung the first real look at Sony Michel (10-46-0).

My take on the two RBs:

I’ve watched two games with DH as the lead in 2021, and he’s been fine…but you keep waiting to see that ultra-fast 40-time guy, and it just isn’t there. He’s totally fine. A tough runner with solid speed, but I don’t see that juice we all thought he had. He looked better, to my eyes, last year when he first broke out.

Honestly, Sony Michel came in and looked very quick…very fresh…and a better interior runner.

Henderson’s injury has opened the door/gotten Michel a look…and he may live to regret it. You don’t have to give Sean McVay much reason to move away from DHendo, whom he hates.

My guess is that Henderson will not play this week due to the rib, and the Michel door will be open – now it’s a tough draw to go up against Tampa Bay, but if he succeeds against a tough TB run defense…he’ll be in a split with DH at a minimum…and then soon to be the main back, whatever that means in a split. Possibly, Michel will be the Cam Akers replacement McVay was praying for.

 -- Speaking of clusters in a backfield…

Jonathan Taylor (15-51-0, 1-2-0/1) continues to be underutilized. He was also halted on goal line TD events 4-5 times in this game.

What’s the deal? Well…

First, the Colts have the most overrated ‘good’ O-Line in the NFL. Everyone talks about how great they are, but the results have been meh for two years now…despite having an ace RB prospect in their midst.

Also, when Taylor is in…the defense is keying more on Taylor because they don’t fear Wentz.

And then, often, Frank Reich gets Marlon Mack (5-16-0, 0-0-0/1) happy and suddenly we see Mack-Hines in WAY too much. Taylor played 30 snaps, touched the ball 16 times…when JT is in it’s a safe bet for the defense that it’s where the ball is going.

Taylor is headed to be an RB1.5-2 in 2021 with eternal top five RB1 hopes if he cashes a TD every week -- and he’s getting a ton of goal line chances, but not converting...another strike against that O-Line.. Jacob Eason starting at QB will not help matters.

 -- Michael Pittman (8-123-0/12) broke out here. He had his way with the Rams secondary. He looked terrific.

The odd thing was…Jalen Ramsey was rarely on him. I saw Ramsey covering TEs…RBs…no one…sometimes Strachan or Pascal…as Pittman just carved up single and double coverage. Is Ramsey no longer a thing? It was very bizarre watching Pittman go off and Ramsey never adjusting over. It's game-on with Pittman, but maybe not as much with Eason at QB. Let Pittman flop (if) with Eason Week 3, then we'll circle back looking to buy lower if desired.

Mike Strachan (0-0-0/1) didn’t start but played the 3rd-most snaps among Colts WRs. I did see Ramsey on him more than Pittman. The Colts have no plan for Strachan right now. Carson Wentz is a bottom 10 NFL starting QB who has now locked onto Pittman – so the Strachan story is probably on hold until 2022 (unless Pittman goes down), hopefully with new coaches and new QB in 2022, but I doubt it. Probably 2023 is the hope.

 -- The Rams-DST has faced Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz, and they did not dominate either…and all total, the Rams are #20 in yards allowed but a solid #8 in PPG allowed among NFL defenses through two games. This Rams defense has not looked like the dominant unit they were in 2020. With D-C Brandon Staley now coaching the Chargers…it may have had a much bigger impact than the team thought.

If Tampa Bay goes and drops 30+ points on the Rams defender in Week 3…the media is going to flip out on this defense/McVay.

Brady then Kyler then Russell Wilson the next three weeks…I’m not sure they’re an FF-start the next 3 weeks.

NYG-DET-HOU-TEN-SF Weeks 6-10 looks more promising but not as much if the Rams are just a mediocre/good defense now.

Rams DT Sebastian Joseph-Day (9 tackles, 1.0 sacks) went nuts in this game…not a good sign for the vaunted Indy O-Line. I don’t think it’s a SJB IDP breakout

Denver claimed 2020 starting ILB Micah Kiser off the LAR practice squad this week – smart move by Denver. Kiser could be the Broncos starter at ILB in a few weeks, but Justin Strnad may just keep that job and flourish.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Pascal

60 = Pittman

34 = Strachan

26 = Dulin

30 = Taylor

25 = Hines

13 = Mack

40 = Henderson

16 = Michel

03 = Funk

03 = DeSean Jackson

Ross Jacobs

FFM

24 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Ravens 36, Chiefs 35 (By Ross Jacobs)

Whew, what a game. As a fan you just have to step back and appreciate these clashes between some of the best QB's and teams in the league. It doesn't get any better.

I'd like to be coy here and try to spin some complicated story about how the Chiefs shouldn't panic after losing to a Ravens team decimated by injuries, or how the Chiefs outplayed the Ravens and would have won except for an uncharacteristic interception by Mahomes and the first career fumble for Edwards-Helaire. I could dive into the play-by-play and dissect every move that happened, the twists and turns, who got lucky and why, but that would be a waste of time.

You can make up all kinds of stories and narratives about this game and people will, but the truth of the matter is that two really good football teams played a game and one of them won. Somebody had to. I wouldn't read too much into anything that happened here. Nothing has changed with either of these teams. They are still two of the best in the league, just like they've been for the past several years. So long as Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are healthy these two squads have a chance at winning every game they play. End of story.

Fantasy Notes

--Let's start with the one real unknown from this game and the thing that could most affect your fantasy season depending on the outcome, the thing RC and I have spent more time on than anything else...Ty'Son Williams (13-77-0, 2-16-0/2). Nearly every analyst I have seen this week has been saying the Ty'Son experience is over, that he's not that talented, that it's a split backfield situation between him, Latavius Murray (9-36-1) and Devonta Freeman (2-29-0), and that you can safely leave Ty'Son on your bench.

Do not listen to anyone that tells you that. I'm begging you.

Ty'Son is going to matter this year. The case is settled after watching this game. We already knew he was easily the most explosive, most effective back for Baltimore, but the only reason for skepticism, whether the team would recognize it and commit to him, is gone now. They know. Ty'Son is going to put up some numbers this year and this may be your last chance to buy low on him.

Thankfully for those that haven't already acquired him, a couple of fluky plays kept him from scoring 2 TD's here and that's going to hold his price down for at least another week. The first was a carry on their first redzone trip where Ty'Son made a great cut and was headed for an easy TD but got blasted on his arm with a helmet at the 1. The ball popped straight to Devin Duvernay who scored the TD. The second was the Ravens go-ahead score in the 4th quarter. Ty'Son looked like he was going to finish another run but was dropped just short of the goalline and Lamar kept the next play himself to score. We were inches away from a 2 TD game and people would be going wild for him, but instead we have one final chance to get in before this thing takes off.

Ty'Son is the lead back here and that's not changing. Don't be fooled by the fact that he's only playing 50% of the snaps and taking 55-60% of the RB carries. None of it matters. What matters is that he is going to get 12-15 carries every week and he's going to average north of 5+ ypc along with a TD chance every week. He's also getting around 2 catches a game which is not bad at all for a Ravens RB. We're talking somewhere around 14.5 ppg in ppr leagues which is going to put him in the 12-15 range or so for RB's on the year. That's his floor. It's possible we could even see those numbers go up a bit.

Don't overpay for him, but definitely try to acquire him for RB2-2.5 prices. Trust me, most people don't trust him because they didn't know his name to start the season. He's not a real player to them. We know the truth.

--If I haven't made it clear enough the past several weeks, please don't have Murray on your team. He's dreadful. 4.0 ypc here against one of the weakest run defenses in the league in a Ravens backfield where everyone averages 5 ypc? Even the Ravens know he's limited because they barely gave him any work between the 20's here. It was all short yardage stuff and inside the 10 where he doesn't have to go far. He gets what is blocked and that's it. The TD's are the only thing propping him up and they aren't going to be that frequent. Don't even entertain the idea.

--Another player RC and I have been pointing out is Marquise Brown (6-113-1/10) and the public is waking up to this one. Brown isn't my favorite player ever, but he's the top WR target for Lamar and Lamar scores touchdowns, therefore Brown scores touchdowns. Isn't fantasy easy? Probably not the time to buy in on him coming off a huge Sunday night game, but there will be a lull in his scores eventually where he goes 3-57-0 or something and that will be the time to grab him if he's not too hot already.

--Mark Andrews (5-57-0/5) has had a slow start to the year. Don't worry about him. His numbers are coming. Nothing has changed for him in this offense, just other things have been available. He's going to have a 2 TD night soon and everyone will forget about the start. He'll finish as a top 5 TE like usual.

--All these Ravens players are only useful because of one man though. Lamar Jackson (18-26 for 239 yards, 1 TD/2 INT, 16-107-2) is so good and somehow still underrated at times. It's weird. I think sometimes we drop him a step down in our minds because he relies on his legs more than most other top guys, and even though he isn't as threatening a pure passer as a Mahomes or Kyler, we tend to think he's less dangerous because of it. He's not. And don't worry about the 2 interceptions here. The pick 6 happened because Sammy Watkins slipped. The second one was a stupid pass into coverage, but he doesn't do that often.

--Patrick Mahomes (24-31 for 343, 3 TD/1 INT) continues to do Patrick Mahomes things. He's unstoppable. Why do we even bother with other QB's for fantasy? Everyone has question marks every year. Pat may not finish as the #1 QB, but he's going to be in the mix and he's as safe as it possibly gets. You cannot go wrong drafting him. Don't overthink it next year. Just draft him.

And I don't want to hear people complaining on Twitter about how we should crucify Mahomes for throwing that stupid interception as he was falling to the ground because we smash Darnold or Jameis when they do that crap. Darnold and Jameis aren't good enough to shine Mahomes's shoes first of all. And second of all Darnold and Jameis do that every game while struggling to throw 200 yards. Mahomes is the best QB the game has ever known and makes jaw-dropping plays multiple times a game. He can do whatever the &%$# he wants and you can deal with it. You don't reign in greatness because it makes an occasional mistake. You reign in terrible mistakes that far outweigh the occasional good thing. Not remotely the same comparison, but thanks for proving that you know nothing yet again Twitter fans. Rant over.

--Travis Kelce (7-109-1/8) is a boss and the only other thing in fantasy that can compare with Mahomes. There's a reason RC and I advocate taking him even as high as the 1st round. Forget his age, forget your charts and graphs and “regression” analysis. Kelce is immune. Mahomes is immune. The rules don't apply to them. Stop overthinking it!

--Tyreek Hill (3-14-0/4, 1-15-0) is immune for the season, but he does occasionally have these type games. It's unfortunate but it happens. Take your lumps and move on. He's going to help you win most other weeks.

--I don't get the Clyde Edwards-Helaire (13-46-0) hate this week. We just all collectively decided that now it's ok to hate on him? He fumbles for the first time in his career and it causes the Chiefs to lose and now suddenly he's the worst? The guy is fine. He's playing good football. We always knew he was a somewhat limited athlete, doesn't have the best long speed. He's not going to give you 100 yard games very often. He doesn't get the carries for that. This particular game he didn't get any catches which hurts but it happens sometimes. The selling point for Helaire has always been that he should have good opportunity to score points because of the offense. Well guess what? The Chiefs have been scoring for 30+ yards out nearly every drive so far this year. That isn't going to always be the case.

Last week it was Tyreek, this week Pringle and Kelce had long catch and runs and Robinson caught a bomb. I know patience isn't the strong suit of fantasy players, but please, try to have some. Helaire has no competition for his job, he's going to get 12-15 carries a game, about 3 catches, and (hopefully) start bringing in a TD every other week or so. If nothing changes I'd expect him to fall right outside the top 12 or so, right in the same bucket as Ty'Son and if the TD's start coming faster he could make it into the back of the RB1 range. He's not a top 5 RB like everyone was hoping for the last two years, but he is a nice, safe option to keep you from hurting too badly at RB. Remember, somebody else out there is starting Latavius Murray.

--Byron Pringle (2-63-1/2) showed why RC thinks he should be KC's second option at WR with a terrific catch and run TD here, but it's probably not going to change anything. He's still the 4th option behind Demarcus Robinson (3-46-1/4) and Mecole Hardman (5-55-0/8).

‍

IDP Notes

Daniel Sorensen (10 tackles, 1 sack), Anthony Hitchens (12 tackles, 1 tfl), and Nick Bolton (9 tackles, 1 tfl) had elevated tackle counts because the Ravens run so much. Don't expect that next week.

I'm not loving what I see from Bolton. He's as advertised that's for sure, a somewhat slow of foot, thick, hard hitting throwback middle linebacker. He's a good run defender when he can play downfield, but he struggles if you get him chasing side to side. He defended Ty'Son just fine for example, but when Lamar took off around the edges he was usually out of position. He also struggles in pass coverage. Don't mean to sound too critical of him, he's a good player for what he does, especially as a rookie, but I'm just not sure what a run-stuffing MLB is worth in the NFL these days.

Patrick Queen (8 tackles) shows up every week now and is going to be among the league leaders in tackles this year. He's really developed into a very nice LB. I definitely missed that one when he came out of college.

I still don't see it with Jayson Oweh (3 tackles, 1 tfl, 1 fumble recovery). He seems to be in the right place though so maybe there's hope for him if he can ever incorporate his athleticism into his game.

Snap Counts of Interest

70 = Sammy Watkins

55 = Marquise Brown

37 = Devin Duvernay

37 = Ty'Son Williams

27 = Latavius Murray

10 = Devonta Freeman

33 = Clyde Edwards-Helaire

14 = Darrell Williams

40 = Mecole Hardman

30 = Demarcus Robinson

11 = Byron Pringle

‍

R.C. Fischer

FFM

23 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Patriots 25, Jets 6

The Patriots throttled the Jets by three scores. Zach Wilson is now the most media hated starting QB in the NFL, now that Andy Dalton is gone, after tossing four picks to the Pats.

I rewatched this game to study what went wrong with Wilson, but I walked away thinking – the Jets may be my new favorite team of the future. Also, the Patriots are not more talented than the Jets…more experienced, but not more talented.

The story of this game happened in the 1st-quarter. On the very first drive, second play, the Jets stripped a fumble away from NE, which set them up in great field position right away – only a totally B.S. whistle called the ballcarrier down by progress…a very fast, unneeded whistle…unless you’re on the Belichick payroll.

Zack Wilson then started throwing picks…passes off the hands of his receivers that pleasantly, gingerly floated into the air right to a defender on the first one and off the hands ricocheted right into the deep trailing DB on the second.

The Jets would halt drives, and then some ticky-tack penalty would extend it for NE. The Jets would be driving and a penalty would push them back.

With everything going their way, including three 1st-half picks, the Pats only led 13-3 at the half.

The Patriots were then able to play small ball the rest of the game while the Jets flailed away in vain until the merciful end. The Patriots played better football, but the Jets were the aggressors…the ones the Pats had to adjust to, and bob-and-weave from. The turnovers threw cold water on everything for NYJ – and we’ll get into those turnovers/Wilson first up in the next section.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- So, I re-watched this game from the perspective of Zach Wilson (19-33 for 210 yards, 0 TDs/4 INTs) – I wanted to see how bad it really was. Was there a problem with Wilson that I missed? Is he terrible? Was it the genius of Belichick?

My main notes…

1) It was not anything special Belichick was doing…like some master chess player. Tipped/off hands picks combined with Wilson trying to make miracles happen because his offense is stuck in mud, for reasons we’ll get into.

2) The Jets have a terrible O-Line for pass protection. The Jets are the 2nd-most sacked by % of pass attempts team in the NFL, just behind the worst = Cincy. Wilson rarely ever gets the chance to set his feet in a clean pocket and survey and throw. He’s constantly avoiding, moving around, throwing on the run (for his life).

3) The Jets have the worst WR group in the NFL. The Jets have the worst receiving TE group in the NFL. When Wilson does have time, no one is ever open.

4) The bad O-Line. The garbage passing game weapons. A good Patriots defense – it all left Wilson, for a 2nd week, scrambling for his life and trying to force plays/throws because he’s trying to win games. Wilson’s 4th pick was a 2nd and 28 airmail trying to make something happen. He should’ve done the typical screen/short stuff to try and chop the 3rd-down into something more reasonable…but I get what he was trying to do.

Wilson needs to learn that it’s more important not to have turnovers than it is to try and win games – seriously, NFL coaches would rather lose than have a turnover (all but one of them). I’m not joking. They live to not turn the ball over…as Tom Brady bomb’s away and wins a Super Bowl and about to win an MVP by pressing down on the accelerator by default. Wilson had a number of errant throws in this game, but they were mostly under duress and him trying to make something happen because the Jets were hanging around despite all the negatives that had happened…and WRs rarely open with a window to even throw to.

I walk away from this not dismayed by Zach Wilson at all, but the media is killing him. The NY newspapers and talk show hosts are already debating getting Spencer Rattler or trading for Deshaun Watson. Why? Because they are all idiots that overreact to everything like spoiled babies…or like us Fantasy Football owners who just lost a game the week prior. And like I said in January – the media is going to hate Zach Wilson because he’s hate-able.

With all that, the 4 picks, the fan tantrums, and the media assault – in Dynasty, this is the week to go get him for close to nothing. You don’t pay fair value for this – you try to steal it from those who take their FF cues from local sports talk radio or ESPN or State sponsored NFL Network. Wilson might as well be cut by his Dynasty owners today…go trade for him on super low valuation…but don’t telegraph it, wander into it. He’s an investment for 2022+.

 -- While the media hails Mac Jones (22-30 for 186 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs)…but look at his stat line here. You thought the Jets defense was a great matchup, but they are actually feisty-good and Jones was sacked three times, had all his should’ve-been picks dropped – and that’s within playing a turtle-hiding-in-his-shell style of QB play rife with an average air yards on pass attempts of 4.0.

Wilson has a 9.0 air yards per pass attempt this game. Wilson is 5th in the NFL in attempted air yards on his passes (just ahead of Allen-Brady-Carr-Rodgers-Mahomes). Mac Jones is 30th. That doesn’t end the debate – I’m just saying Wilson is trying to push the ball while Jones throws everything to James White.

If Wilson learns to play more of Mac’s style…things may open up more for him as needed. Right now, Wilson is playing like rookie Brett Favre. Mac is playing like rookie Tua…in ‘safe play’ terms. Mac is way better than Tua, but still very scripted/safe..

You’re screwed if you own any NE WR/TE because Mac is only interested in passes to James White (5-20-1, 6-45-0/6). As the Patriots try to out-safe their opponent on their way to victory. The Jets are two WRs away from being better than the Patriots…and Becton back on the O-Line.

 -- The most interesting revelation in this game…

Michael Carter (11-59-0, 2-29-0/3) IS no joke…and he’s just arrived. You should go trade low for him, if you can ASAP. He might be about to go James White times two for the Jets ahead.

White gets a few carries and leads the team in targets. Carter is about to be 8-10+ carries split rushing role with Ty Johnson plus Carter getting 4-6 catches in games when Wilson is reeled in to play it safe versus always gunning it. This is my prediction, not a guarantee.

If I’m right, or close…it’s a great buy low moment as people think the Jets stink and Carter is a rando change of pace satellite back. He is not, potentially.

Carter looked lost in the preseason, fell to #4 in the rotation for a spell, barely touched the ball Week 1…so, I thought he was nothing to even think about. One game in, credit to Robert Saleh, he abandoned the not-working RB plan of Week 1 and started Ty Johnson (12-50-0) Week 2 and went heavy with Carter…and it was much-much better. The backs combined for 31 carries for 152 rushing yards…4.9 ypc against the vaunted Pats defense.

I want in on Carter stock, cheap (not chasing at fair or full or over price), this week to get ahead of it – for those who are RB desperate and looking to make wild trades for Derrick Henry now (so timely) and whining about Antonio Gibson or Saquon Barkley (and you should), etc. Instead of trading your whole team for one mega-RB…why not eat the elephant one bite at a time. You add Cordarrelle (like you already have), you work with James White for a while, you buy low on Edmonds-Montgomery or here with Michael Carter. Build a committee, cheap, without trading your entire team to solve one issue, creating three others.

 -- Did I mention Jets WRs are hot garbage?

I was excited about the first two games for Braxton Berrios (7-73-0/11)…6.0 catches on 9 targets per game so far…you’ll take that from a nobody WR. However, watching this game back – I forgot to factor in that Berrios kinda sucks. When Jamison Crowder returns…this all goes away, I’d guess.

Oh, and Elijah Moore (4-47-0/8) has shown me nothing yet. Maybe it’s coming but I'm not impressed so far. It’s still early but in a battle of the rookie Moore’s – take Rondale all day long.

 -- Did I mention how good the Jets defense is?

#10 in yards allowed and PPG allowed despite all the offensive issues.  

This defense is flying to the ball and striking big hits. It’s the most energized defense in the NFL aside from Arizona.

Rookie SAF Michael Carter (8 tackles, 1 TFL) looks promising…averaging 6.5 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 0.5 PDs per game so far.

And they STOLE my man Quincy Williams (5 tackles, 1 TFL) off waivers…another brilliant Urban Meyer move. Williams is now starting and is playing well.

Before you get too excited about the Broncos/Teddy & Friends this Week 3…the Jets are #10 in passing yards allowed, and best in league (tied) for the least amount of TD passes allowed (1).

The first person to notice this ahead – credit to Ross Jacobs who told me to be careful on Sutton, etc., this week because of that Jets D. The Jets D isn’t great…but they are OK/scrappy good. Denver may be OK enough this week, but this is not the patsy Jets defense you think.

 -- Ja’Whaun Bentley (9 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD) made a statement to be the full time starting ILB for the Pats this year. He was everywhere in this game…but the Jets still ran for 152 yards/4.9 ypc. So, I’m not 100% sure he’s safe as a starter.

Josh Uche (3 tackles, 2 sacks) now had 3.0 sacks on the season. Someone mentioned him on the Sunday morning Week 2 Video Q&A – kudos to whomever that was. Identify yourself this Sunday so I can commend you!

Snap Counts of Interest:

57 = Elijah Moore

53 = Corey Davis

43 = Berrios

20 = Jeff Smith

16 = Keelan Cole

33 = M Carter

33 = Ty J

07 = Coleman

48 = H Henry

29 = Jonnu

29 = J White

29 = Dam Harris

05 = JJ Taylor