2022 Week 14: Panthers 30, Seahawks 24 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)

This was not a fluke. The Panthers have a really good defense with an emerging secondary, and they gave fits to the Seattle offense all day…it didn’t help Seattle that they had a run game led by Travis Homer.

It was 17-0 Carolina in a blink, aided by a Geno Smith early game bad throw/pick, setting up Carolina in a short field situation for the Panthers first TD. Carolina got up fast, Seattle was chasing the entire game…and Seattle was the better team the rest of the game, but they had dug a hole too deep, and Carolina’s defense was the best unit on the field for either team.

Carolina’s shocking win gives them a two-game win streak and three wins in their last 4 games, now (5-8)…just one game out in the NFC South, with a real shot to win the division…they face at TB, at NO the final two weeks of the season -- their destiny is in their control. The Panthers are (3-1) in the division, so they hold a lot of tiebreakers right now, and can get them all if they beat TB-NO to end the season. I can’t conceive of it happening, but it is possible that Carolina wins this division. If Carolina beats the Steelers Week 15 (probably led by Trubisky) and the Bucs lose to the Bengals -- Carolina will be in first place in the NFC South this time next week.

Seattle is fading fast. Losers of three of their last 4 games and now (7-6)…they are the last team out of the NFC wild card right now with a brutal schedule ahead (SF-KC-NYJ the next 3 weeks). Seattle is going to drop all three of those games and finish under .500/(8-9). Nine wins could sneak them into a wild card, but eight wins won’t.

*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.

A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The best thing here, as previously stated, was the Panthers defense. Former top 10 draft pick CB C.J. Henderson (2 tackles, 2 PD, 1 INT) is starting to turn his career around/contribute+ now. Jaycee Horn (6 tackles, 2 PDs, 1 INT) is one of the best never-hardly-mentioned players in the NFL. The pass rush is solid. Most importantly, the team has something to play for -- they are very much in this NFC South race.

Whomever Jaycee Horn goes on Week 15, Diontae Johnson or George Pickens, is in trouble…and then C.J. Henderson could be a chore for whomever Horn is not covering. I’m thinking Horn will go on Pickens…or just not ‘travel’ and play one side only…and the Steelers will send Pickens deep into Horn as a perpetual decoy.

This was supposed to be a ‘favorable’ matchup for the Seattle-DST, but they got down early with their offense’s turnovers help and couldn’t come up with enough stops from there, and gave up 30 points to the Panthers, of all teams. 30 or more points allowed in two of Seattle’s last three games. SF-KC-NYJ ahead means this DST is done. It’s not a bad group, but it’s not better than the Panthers-DST.

 -- FYI on those who have KC-DST right now, which is a lot of us…

Seattle has scored 24 or more points in a game in nine of their last 11 games. It’s a good offense because Geno Smith (21-36 for 264 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs) is good…two or more TD passes in a game in 11 of 13 games this season. 16 TD passes in his last 6 games. He’s not a great target for opposing DSTs…and SF-DST may have a muted Week 15 because of it, but the Chiefs-DST are at some risk of a ‘meh’ output at a critical time Week 16 vs. a desperate Seattle team.

 -- It’s probably not totally fair to malign Travis Homer (9-26-0, 2-8-0/3) here, in his spot start. He’s not a real lead back type, but he is fine enough in a pinch…but Seattle got down so fast, so big that it had to take to the air to try and get back in the game…the run game never got going, but it didn’t get much of a chance either. Who foresaw the Panthers with a quick 17-0 lead here? The game flow was turned on its ear.

Kenneth Walker is questionable for Week 15, but as of this typing I believe he is going to play…and not be 100%, AND facing a tough 49er run defense. All not good for Walker for FF…and Walker has been getting shutdown as of late in his recent starts. 17-26-36 for rushing totals in his last three games. A (2/3) for quality starts his past five games. He’s a ‘start’, in general, in a decent or better matchup but hindered and facing the 49ers in the FF playoffs…a hard decision to make for a TNF game coming up fast.

 -- Marquise Goodwin (5-95-1/6) is really playing good football…and decent for FF. In his last 6 games, Goodwin has caught 4 TD passes and averaged a decent WR3 level 3.2 catches per game…and one of those games he got hurt in and left early. In recent weeks, when Goodwin is healthy/playing over 50% of the snaps on offense, three games/times since Week 7 (and he’s missed a couple games with an injury)…he’s caught a TD in every one of those games (and 2 TD catches on one of the games).

Geno Smith is racking TD passes, and Goodwin is getting his share.

Since Week 7, Seattle TD catches among WRs…

6 = Lockett (one TD catch in 6 straight games)

4 = Goodwin

4 = Metcalf

I mention all this to spitball that if Seattle gets down again quickly to SF on TNF and has to throw a lot and Geno is playing well/producing numbers, even if garbage time -- might Goodwin have some sneaky value as the WR likely to get the least attention in coverage, and Goodwin still has the speed to bust a big play event as well.

 -- On to Carolina’s great #1 WR…D.J. Moore (0-0-0/3)…a nice, big fat zero for those partaking. He’s a ridiculous #1 WR for Carolina. But of course, as I keep beating to death…they keep trying to force it to him and so many times it gets picked off or nearly picked off…and at least one of his forced targets this game Tariq Woolen almost snagged a potential pick-six.

With Moore a ghost/not open much…would Carolina then go to their true best WR, Terrace Marshall (1-18-0/1)? Of course not. One whole target…one that he dove for and caught between his legs, with his legs. Marshall had no catches with his hands in this game. Wonderful use of a weapon/asset.

The reason Carolina won’t sneak into the NFC South division title is because their passing game is so utterly ridiculous. They won’t get up 17-0 in games ahead and be able to sit on leads. When they need to throw…they suck under Sam Darnold/the interim head coach.

The worst thing that could happen to the Panthers franchise for the next 2-3 years, is if they somehow win this division and are forced to hire Steve Wilks.

 -- The Panthers can’t even get the RB situation right. Yes, D’Onta Foreman (21-74-0, 1-1-0/1) got 20+ carries, and that’s wise…but freaking use him in the passing game already! He’s a good receiver, but they never use him in that capacity.

Opposing teams know exactly what’s going to happen when Foreman is in the game -- he played 34 snaps here and carried the ball 21 times on those snaps. His one target was a joke/unplanned. The Panthers could really be aided by 3-4-5 screens to Foreman, get him the ball in space…but Steve Wilks averse to RBs as pass game weapons…it’s what helped get him fired after one season with Arizona, when he never threw David Johnson the ball…instead just constantly slamming him up the middle for limited gains.

D'Onta could help carry this jalopy to the NFC South title but limited/no vision Steve Wilks won’t fully open up the throttle.

Snap Counts of Interest:

50 = Lockett

49 = DK Metcalf

41 = Goodwin

49 = Homes

05 = Tony Jones

30 = Fant

21 = Dissly

17 = Parkinson

34 = Foreman

23 = Chuba

14 = Blackshear