2022 Week 14: Chargers 23, Dolphins 17 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)

This was the best game I’ve seen the Chargers play in a long time, maybe the single best in the Justin Herbert era. The offense was tight/humming, but their defense played out of their mind. LAC got stopped on a goal line stand on their first drive and then once they scored, early 2nd-quarter, taking a 3-0 lead…they never trailed again.

The Chargers defense made Tua work inaccurate, and they made Tyreek-Waddle look human. Miami’s two TDs were a lucky fumble recovery and scoop-and-score by Tyreek, and later a Tyreek bomb TD where CB Michael Davis fell down in coverage. This game differential was more like a 30-10 type differential…23-17.

Miami has now lost two in-a-row to fall to (8-5)…and if they lose to Buffalo Week 15, then they’ve lost all the AFC East title hope…and fall into a wild card despair to ever get in. Miami should get to 10 wins and that be good enough for a wild card. But only getting to nine wins and then everything coming down to tiebreakers is on the table.

Huge win for the Chargers, now (7-6) and has a tiebreaker over Miami now…if it comes down to it. Easier schedule to the finish for the Chargers, so they stand a good shot at getting to 9 wins and a shot at a wild card…but also 10 wins is on the table, as is a win-out in their final four to get to 11 wins.

I have hated the Chargers for several weeks…they have looked terrible for months, but the LAC team I saw this game can make it to the playoffs and possibly win a game or two. But we have to consider that this was just a blip game, but LAC is getting defenders back healthy and they got their WRs back and their center -- they may be about to rise-up.

*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.

A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- What’s wrong with Tua (10-28 for 145 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-28-0)?

I don’t know, but it’s something. You don’t go from the most accurate QB in the league to 45.9% Comp. Pct. your last two games…I don’t care how tough the opponents.

In this game, he made the right ‘reads’ a lot of the time…but the WRs were covered so tightly (shockingly) that it caused part of the problem. Tua also forced a few passes, especially to Tyreek…which is smart…but it wasn’t working much here, credit to LAC CB Michael Davis. He forced some into heavy coverage to Tyreek this game, flirting with picks, which we really haven’t seen him do much of this year.

The Tua problem starts with the 49er game Week 13…a top NFL defense. Then LAC played like the best defense in the NFL Week 14 here. Guess what? Week 15 at cold Buffalo, and their tough pass defense. Not any easier Week 15. So, which Tua shows up? We won’t know until after kickoff…it’s a real issue for those that have been riding Tua most of the season -- whether to start or sit him Week 15 at BUF.

With the exception of Week 16 hosting Green Bay, Tua’s finishing schedule is not easy at all.

 -- As Tua sags, it pulls down Tyreek Hill (4-81-1/10) and Jaylen Waddle (2-31-0/4) with it. More Waddle issues than Tyreek. For the last 2+ weeks, I am watching Tua sell out to getting Tyreek the ball…and Waddle just be another option on the field with Sherfield-Wilson-Gesicki.

All you can do is put them in the lineup and pray…they’re too good/explosive to consider a Waddle benching…unless you have great other options. Waddle is due for a big game, but not sure vs. Buffalo in the frigid temps is the right spot…but maybe.

 -- Jeff Wilson (4-26-0) got into this game after Raheem Mostert (11-37-0, 1-7-0/1) starter, which is normal, and Wilson looked good but quickly came up hobbling and gone for the rest of the game. Wilson is very questionable this week.

Mostert might get a clean run without Wilson splitting into him Week 15, but Miami’s run game is so secondary/nonexistent by plan that it’s hard to trust Mostert with a clean start beyond an RB2/3 trust.

However, Miami might need to try and run heavier this week at cold Buffalo, to try and minimize Tua’s issues some…but if Tua gets back on track, then they will go with that heavy quick passing game again.

 -- On the other hand, opposite of Tua, Justin Herbert (39-51 367 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) played one of his best games of the season. Everything has changed with Keenan and Big Mike and their center Corey Linsley all back. If they ever get Rashawn Slater back, then watchout for this Chargers offense.

With all the Titans’ secondary issues, and as witnessed by what Trevor did to the Titans last week -- Week 15 could be HUGE for Herbert against Tennessee.

 -- And it could be HUGE for his WRs…

Mike Williams (6-116-1/6) is playing like an alpha #1 again…half his games this season have been 110 or more yards receiving in the game. Big Mike could definitely be a WR1 this week against that Tennessee defense.

So too, Keenan Allen (12-92-0/14)…who looks like he’s lost a step, but he’s such a professional WR, it doesn’t really matter.

With Keenan-Big Mike back, it makes Josh Palmer (4-53-0/6) a WR3/4 now…just a guy to hold as a handcuff to Mike Williams, if it matters to you.

 -- Because of what Evan Engram did to the Titans last week, the already weak Tennessee D versus the TE had their versus-the-TE metrics go even worse -- which is causing Gerald Everett (5-28-0/8) to get nice rankings nationally for the week. But I assure you, Everett is nothing like Evan Engram.

 -- I mentioned how good the LAC-DST played here. If they go out and whack the Titans Week 15…then the LAC-DST versus Indy Week 16…versus the Rams Week 17…and the Broncos Week 18, might be some FF opportunity…but let’s see how they do versus Tennessee this week, and if Joey Bosa can get back 100%.

Snap Counts of Interest:

47 = Ekeler

32 = Josh Kelley

37 = Mostert

08 = J Wilson

05 = Ahmed