2022 Week 14: Jaguars 36, Titans 22 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
This game started out in typical Titans fashion…outplaying their opponent. When the Titans took a 7-0 lead early into the game, as the Jags offense flailed, I felt great about this pick/bet I made. Of course, the Titans are better than the Jags! And it was playing out as such…at first…
Then the fumbles started to happen (Tennessee with 4 fumbles, 3 lost in this game)…and it allowed the Jags back into the game. Still the Titans had control, for a bit, because they are the better team, a 14-13 Tennessee lead going into halftime…but another turnover and then Jacksonville was trying to get down the field for a field goal before the half to take the lead.
Instead of playing it safe before half and settling for ‘3’, Jacksonville took a shot at the end zone from 20 yards out, and it was picked off…well, it should’ve been picked off. The Titans defender reached his hands up for the pick, the ball smacked off his hands and ricocheted right through, and right into the hands of a shocked Zay Jones in the end zone for a TD before the half -- that was the summary play of this game. Tennessee had the better team, but everything that could go wrong did.
Three lost fumbles and an interception by Tennessee, and Jacksonville hitting several ‘shoulda been picked’ throws for completions…and it broke the Titans back and Jacksonville ran away with the game. Visually, it wasn’t Jacksonville dominating, per se, but them playing fine but getting ALL the breaks…and that happens time-to-time in a season.
Tennessee is now (7-6)…and don’t look now, but Jacksonville is (5-8)…with a win now logged over Tennessee and their next game is Week 18. It’s a bit of a race in the AFC South, but Jacksonville has Dallas this week. If the Jags can beat Dallas and then the Titans fall to the Chargers, then Jacksonville is really in the race…and possibly in control of their destiny.
However, the Titans should limp into the playoffs as the AFC South winner at (9-8), but if they can’t get their defense healthy…Jacksonville could give them a run with their Week 18 matchup being for all the marbles.
Jacksonville has a tough next two weeks with Dallas-NYJ, so they could very easily lose the next two weeks and fall to (5-10) and out of the race. My money is on the Titans but if Jacksonville wins this week and the Titans stay injured all over…we got a race here.
*Note any fractional numbers in parentheses (4/2) or (2/3), etc., are a ‘split’ stat on our definition of a ‘quality start’ (or not) marker on a player -- using 14 PPR points in a game for RB-WR-TE and 21 for a QB…point levels that are good/productive/well above average starts for a Fantasy week. Trying to identify trends, consistency (or not) in players we might not normally realize.
A (3/2), for example, means: 3 times the player hit at/above the mark, and 2 times they did not.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The mass Tennessee turnovers were one-half of the reason why Jacksonville won. The other half of the equation: Evan Engram (11-162-2/15).
The single greatest performance I’ve ever seen by a tight end in recent years…happened right here.
Finally, six years into his career, a team used Evan Engram the way he was built to be used. A ton of short passes with him on the move (not going out and stopping for typical TE routes), and just let him do the rest after the catch. Once he started burning the Titans short, it opened up some medium passes to him as well. Engram is such a mismatch nightmare and Jacksonville FINALLY used it to its fullest -- this was the guy I’ve been chasing for six years. My ‘White Whale’ at tight end.
Will Jacksonville keep this going? My NFL experience says ‘no’. This is a moment where Week 14 was magic…so then Week 15, Engram will get 1-2 targets and be a dud. BUT what we just saw here was so special…so easy…so FF-wonderful, I will have no problem chasing it again Week 15, knowing the risk. You can’t get this type of week out of any TE except maybe Travis Kelce…and in the FF-playoffs, you need some magical moments. And the downside is he’s just a random TE1/2 Week 15…like most all of the TEs not named Kelce.
Watching this game tape…I wasn’t tearing up…no, it was just I had something in my eye is all. This game performance and plan…it could’ve been happening for years, for NYG. It was so simple. And this game for Engram was a plan by the Jags, not just a random event game.
Three TDs in his last two games for Engram. I think the Jags are giving into this some…and obviously got an eyeful here. But recall Jelani Woods blowing up a few weeks ago…and then being pushed to the #3 TE the following week. I could give you a thousand examples of coaching stupidity on offense…where guys did inhuman things, and then the coordinators forget all about it for their clever misdirection and decoy plays. No guarantees here for Engram ahead, but for ‘what could be’…versus all the rando TEs out there, the reward is worth the risk in Week 15.
-- Zay Jones (8-77-1/12) has suddenly become the top WR for the Jags…
Since Week 10…
7.5 rec. (10.8 targets), 74.0 yards, 0.25 TDs per game = Zay
6.0 rec. (9.0 targets), 75.0 yards, 0.50 TDs per game = Kirk
Both are humming for FF/PPR purposes.
-- Trevor Lawrence (30-42 for 368, 3 TD/0 INT, 3-7-1) continues to improve…he’s having a solid season, statistically. When I watch the tape, I still see bad decisions and forced throws…but, especially in this game, those risky throws are landing more than not. As good as his numbers were here, just the week prior the Lions wrecked him. I’m still not onboard, but I can see he’s not the worst in the league anymore.
-- The big passing game by Lawrence was aided by the fact that the Titans are a beast stopping the run, and thus Travis Etienne (17-320, 0-0-0/0) got swallowed up…and forced more passing, which was smart because the Titans being down several corners is what you want to attack.
Etienne does not look like anything that interesting to me, as a talent/in general, and I’m shocked that the Jags really don’t use him in the passing game -- I thought that was ‘his thing’?
The Jags face the #2 pass defense (DAL) and the #4 (NYJ) the next two weeks. We’ll see if Lawrence fights through them, or if they bump Etienne more because of the matchup.
-- The only really interesting FF news from Tennessee was the continued rise of Chig Okonkwo (6-45-1/6). His past three games: 4.3 rec. (5.3 targets), 49.7 yards, 0.33 TDs per game.
Chig’s snap counts are rising, but he’s still only playing 50% +/- of the game on offense…but what is really rising is the amount of talk in Tennessee about how they should get Chig more involved…from the media, the coaches, and Ryan Tannehill himself. Chig is definitely a TE1 projection week-to-week now, especially with Treylon Burks out.
Side note: Chig had a catch near the goal line early in this game but was halted short of the end zone.
-- I like the Titans-DST…when it’s at full strength, but they continue to lose 1-2 players every week it seems. They get 1-2 back at the same time 1-2 go down. This defense, with several missing CBs, has given up 35 and 36 points in games the last two weeks…after holding their prior 7 opponents to 20 points or less.
It doesn’t look like Tennessee is getting top CB Kristian Fulton back this week either…and that means a continuation of the problems against the pass, and that’s not good going to face Justin Herbert in a dome this week.
-- Jags SAF Andrew Wingard (7 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD) has been producing for IDP the past few weeks with normal starter Andre Cisco out…but Wingard got hurt here and will probably miss Week 15. Also, Cisco should return this week anyway.
Snap Counts of Interest:
36 = Hooper
33 = Chig O
17 = Swaim
54 = Etienne
18 = Harty
