DFS Shark Tank Week 3: Player/Stack/Avoid Pitch for the $1M+ Open Tournaments
I (RC) am going to play one DFS lineup in a $1M (min.) contest each week to try and take a dart throw at the big money to fund three things: (1) Myself, (2) FFM, (3) my favorite charity.
The odds of hitting on one entry in a giant pool is near impossible…but that’s the fun of it, the lottery dream of it.
My plan to make a lineup is going to be the ‘fun’ here. I, myself, do not functionally play DFS myself…I get submerged in Fantasy and scouting and questions and shows and writing, etc., all day every day. I’m not an expert in the salary and stack aspects, etc., so I’m going to do the smart thing -- lean on two people who are more expert in it than I.
There will be five inputs to make my FF lineup for the million (or bust)…
1) FFM’s Ross Jacobs, who is taking a deeper dive into the world of DFS this year.
2) Andrew Duhan…known to us as ‘Andrew DFS’…one of the most expert DFS sources that I know.
3) My wife, who knows nothing about football, is going to make one random pick at a position (probably like DST…or from a group of top options of the other positions.
4) I will pick one favorite play/player.
5) I will let Advanced Sports Logic’s ‘DFS Optimizer’, which uses FFM projections correlated to the salary and instantly/AI’s the best spends to fill out as many positions (or all positions) as needed. More info on the program and subscribing to the DFS Optimizer on the ‘Optimizer’ tab on the FFM homepage.
But I will begin each week by consulting with my two experts, who I’ve asked to pitch four concepts…
1) Their best ‘stack’ play, and why.
2) Their best mid-range salary player I should have in my lineup.
3) Their best cheapo play I should have in my lineup construction.
4) The bigger name/salary player I should avoid -- for either game logic or DFS ‘ownership %’ logic (and we’ll explain what that means).
The two DFS experts are going to pitch me (a la a Shark Tank type pitch) their concepts Saturday night on a group chat, which will be posted in full below -- so you can see their picks/plays and logic to consider for your own lineup constructions in DFS. I don’t know who they are gonna pitch until they pitch it…and I’ll react to it, and we’ll group discuss it. They also don’t know who the other might pitch -- they may end up with the same exact concept/player…they won’t know until the chat starts.
We haven’t practiced this ahead, I just laid out the generic concept and we’re about to see where it goes. Forgive any typos…and good luck with your DFS plays this week!
RC: OK, Week 3 for DFS play and I'm still not a millionaire but I've also deviated from the path some because I had 'a feeling', but my 'feelings' suck right now to win a million. I need some serious help. We'll start with Ross...who is your stack pitch this week?
Ross: There are a lot of good plays, but one is falling under the radar a little bit and I'm going to leverage the field on it. Love love love Burrow plus Chase/Higgins paired with Hayden Hurst. Cincy has explosive potential to equal anyone in the league and they should get some reprieve this week facing a weak Jets defense, particularly one that shouldn't be able to abuse the Cincy offensive line as bad as the Steelers and Cowboys did
RC: Gardner on any of them scare you?
RC: I suspect he goes on Tee?
RC: But might chase Chase
Ross: No. He's good, going to be great someday, but Chase is the best deep threat receiver since Randy Moss. He can put 175 yards and 2+ TDs on anyone any given day. Again, I don't care about what's likely or probable to happen. It doesn't matter if Jalen Ramsey is lining up across from him. To win tournaments you need a ridiculous amount of points and you need to find a few players that not many other people are on. Chase projects to be under 5% owned this week and that is just too low no matter because of his ceiling. The ceiling, the max that could possibly happen is all we care about
Ross: Remember how you faded Jefferson week 1 against the great GB defense? It doesn't matter that it only happened because Alexander wasn't on him for a half. The point is Jefferson is amazing and can do that any week. The how doesn't matter to us.
RC: ...and then Darius Slay completely cut Jefferson down Week 2
Ross: Yes, it can happen and will happen, a bunch actually. If you look at Jefferson's 2021, as great as he was, he only had 1-2 weeks where he was a tournament winning play. None of that matters. You are going to have to hit once a year scores for every single player on your team and if you think all of your guys are going to have wonderful matchups on paper you're dreaming.
Ross: It doesn't matter if your guy gets shut down. If he scores 0 or 5 or 10 or even 20 doesn't make a difference. If they don't hit their max you're not winning regardless. You have to stop thinking in terms of what could go wrong and start focusing solely on what is the maximum possible because you need that to win a tournament
RC: Andrew could not make the chat this week, so he sent his pitches in a little bit ago. I will post his pitch and we can discuss. His stack pitch is...
ANDREW DFS: I’m going with LV QB Derek Carr (~5% ownership projection) and LV WR Davante Adams (~10% ownership projection) in back-to-back weeks. Last week the Carr and Adams connection was a chalky play and that should have been a red flag to fade the duo. Typically, when superstars like Adams have an off week, they end up being strong DFS plays the following week since the public cools down on them. The Titans are dealing with a ton of injuries, coming off a short week and if the game against the Bills serves as any indication, Carr and Adams should both be in line for a bounce back week. LV WR Hunter Renfrow was ruled out yesterday and LV RB Josh Jacobs is questionable to play.
RC: What do you think about that going back to the well play this week?
Ross: Yeah, I like Carr this week as well. I'll have a lot of him
RC: Tennessee is so dead with all their injuries...
RC: Maybe in Week 6+ they will get back on their feet, but not this week...and LV is due/looks really good in general.
Ross: Carr and Herbert are my other two low-owned favorites very close behind Burrow
Ross: LV is getting beaten up by the public for losing to KC and LAC. They are a good team
RC: I'm intrigued by the big gamble play on Herbert
RC: But I don’t think he'll play but if he does/if he's fine...
Ross: Go for it. You can always late swap him if it turns out he's not going to play. Again, he has upside to match anyone in the league and gets a week Jax defense in my opinion
RC: Who is your Midrange player to run with this week?
Ross: You're going to hate this I know but I'm head over heels for Miles Sanders this week
RC: Detroit ran all over WSH last week, and JRob and his achilles was fine vs them too.
RC: This could be a Sanders moment, I could see it.
Ross: Exactly. If Philly is as good as we all think and their defense crushes an overrated Was offense, Philly is going to be up big and running it down their throats. I can absolutely see a 250-yard day for the Eagles and if Sanders only gets 45-50% of that plus a score or two he'll be a homerun
RC: Here's Andrew's...
ANDREW DFS: HOU RB Dameon Pierce (D$ 5,000; 15.4% ownership projection) is my mid-range play of the week. Pierce burned me in Week 1 with a low usage rate (11 carries, 1 target; 29% off snaps) as RB Rex Burkhead inexplicably led the Texans backfield (14 carries, 8 targets; 71% snaps). The Texans wisely moved away from Burkhead in Week 2 (0 carries, 3 targets; 37% snaps) and Pierce had a much bigger role (15 carries, 1 target; 62% snaps). I’m projecting that this trend will continue into Week 3. HC Lovie Smith returns to his old stomping grounds in Chicago in a very winnable game against the Bears. I think the Texans will control the game through their running attack and defense.
Ross: I like Pierce, but everyone likes Pierce. 15+% ownership is high
Ross: Looks like a better cash game play than tournament to me
RC: The price is nice
RC: The ownership is scary
Ross: Yeah that's why everyone is on him. But let's say he runs for 100 and a TD. That's not good enough to win a tournament and 15% of the field is right there with you
Ross: I just have a hard time seeing him hit 25+ points. To me there are just better contrarian plays around his range
RC: Who got as a top play on the cheap this week?
Ross: Logan Thomas looks like a great option at 3500. They should be trailing Philly which leads to a pass heavy script and potentially lots of cheap, safe throws to the TE (a position Wentz already likes to target heavily). Also, TEs are the one noticeable weakness for the Philly defense so far
RC: The two TE situations where the defense is weak on the TE...Philly and Arizona (Higbee). What's Higbee priced by comparison?
Ross: 4500
Ross: But he's projected to be one of the highest owned TEs this week at over 10%
RC: For the price, I could see Logan as the play...Irv Smith almost had 100+ yards and 2 TDs in that massacre Monday night...in 19 snaps.
RC: He dropped a 60+ yard TD
Ross: Irv is up there for me but again he's a very common play this week. 4th highest projected ownership
Ross: I actually was on him last week and just missed out
RC: Irv was lucky last week...only 19 snaps, a trend...they are going with Johnny Mundt, a TE from O'Connell's Rams days
Ross: Yikes. Good to know
Ross: Isn't Mundt more of a blocker?
RC: My bad...Irv was 19 snaps Week 1.
RC: 56%/34 snaps Week 2
Ross: That makes more sense. They played it slow with his injury
RC: A little ahead of Mundt...who is the blocker but steals 2-3 catches a week right now
RC: It must be TE weekend, because here's Andrew's...
ANDREW DFS: My cheap play of the week is NO TE Juwan Johnson (D$ 2,900; 7.7% ownership projection) who continues to be priced under D$3,000 despite playing more than 75% snaps and drawing an average of 6 targets per game. Had Johnson scored against Atlanta or Tampa Bay, I bet his salary and ownership projection would be much higher today. I think this is the week where he hits the pay dirt and for him to be a valuable play, all he needs to do is score 12-15 points. His cheap salary can help push salary to more expensive players that have a high likelihood of big games this week. Davante Adams, Austin Ekeler and Travis Kelce come to mind off the bat.
Ross: I have a cute idea that could be a huge contrarian play at defense. Normally I wouldn't mention it because it's best to just pick a random defense that fits in your budget because it's nearly impossible to predict, but here's the play: Buf is projected to be under 2% played due to missing so many starters and Tua's explosion last week. But if they are as great and deep as we think they could shock a lot of people and you'd have a huge leg up on the field
Ross: Again, I like Juwan but everyone else likes him too. He's the 3rd highest owned TE on the week. These value plays are nice in theory but if everyone else is playing them they don't get you any leverage
Ross: In this case though it's probably fine because it's still not a crazy high percent
RC: Juwan keeps sniffing a nice game but just keeps missing.
Ross: If Juwan was 15%+ I'd definitely fade him. 7-8 is ok
RC: What chalk player is a total avoid for you this week?
Ross: There's a few that come to mind, but I'll go with Amon Ra. He's going to be around 20% owned because of the streak of great games, a monster game last week, and a potential shootout game but I'd rather fade him and pay up for Chase or Adams who are much less owned
RC: Defenses are due to try and do something about St. Brown and he's shut off-able...and then Goff will go over the top on them
Ross: Yep. I definitely want a piece of that game especially on comebacks for Cousins stacks so I actually favor Chark in this spot
RC: Andrew's pitch...
ANDREW DFS: I’m going to pick on Leonard Fournette (D$ 6,500) again like I did last week. His ownership percentage is expected to exceed 30%. Normally when players have an off week, their ownership percentage dips; however, Fournette’s ownership percentage is increasing compared to last week presumably due to Tampa’s depleted receiving core (WR Mike Evans OUT; WR Chris Godwin OUT; WR Julio Jones Questionable; WR Russell Gage Questionable). The Packers defense is legit and GB cornerbacks should completely wipe out TB WRs, allowing them to focus on stopping the run. Additionally, Tampa is still dealing with key OL injuries which will also not help out Fournette’s cause.
Ross: I'm not seeing Fournette that high up. Looks like 15% to me. I wonder if Andrew got that in cash games. Either way he's got a fair point. I actually think GB's run defense is rather weak but with all of the TB receivers banged up I tend to agree. I think this could end up a GB blowout with Tom throwing 2-3 picks. Love the volume for Fournette but unless they can get into TD range it's not going to matter
RC: I bet they didn't expect a low scoring run fest when they scheduled TB-GB when the schedules came out.
Ross: I can't imagine they did
RC: I want to run two players I had my eye on this week, and get your reaction/data...
RC: Brandin Cooks with CHI defense missing people and not great right now anyway?
RC: And Cooks due
Ross: Feels like a great play but once again the public is right there with you. He's pretty popular, I think the 6th highest owned receiver. He's been near the top every week because he's widely known as a great value play around $6000
Ross: If you use him make sure to differentiate your lineup elsewhere with some under 3-5% guys
RC: Ahhhh
RC: I know I won't get an ownership% block on this next one...Rashaad Penny, going for a heavy game for SEA v. Falcons D. That he sees 15+ touches against a soft D.
Ross: Absolutely love Penny this week. He was my next choice behind Sanders
Ross: This is his best shot all year for one of those 135+ yd weeks
RC: I'm hoping.
Ross: Shoot for the moon. He's exactly the kind of guy you want. 1% owned with a massive ceiling. It's not likely to hit but if it does, you're in business
RC: OK, I'm going to find a way to get Sanders into my lineup with Penny. I'm going to replace Cooks. I was already set to play Chark...I think there's possible money with that guy this week on some long scores.
RC: I had D Pierce in...it's him or Sanders.
Ross: If you're playing both Sanders and Penny then it's perfectly fine to play Cooks because the low ownership on the RBs will more than make up for lots of people having Cooks. The one thing you might think about adjusting is not playing too many projected low scoring games. Sea/Atl and Chi/Hou are two of the lowest on the slate and it's relatively unlikely that there's 2+ top tier plays from those games
RC: The Houston game...the CHI injury report on D is not good, but it's good advice
RC: Houston hasn't been high flying
Ross: Also, you definitely don't want Cooks and Pierce on the same team. Stacking a RB and WR from the same game is a no-no outside of rare occasions where the RB can catch a zillion passes in shootout/comeback
RC: I switched off. Cooks out for my secret fave of the week...
RC: Chris Olave
Ross: Hilarious. He's the 3rd highest owned WR...
RC: No way. I guess the air yard crowd is a full-on cult now
Ross: DFS players are relatively sharp and the guys doing projections are sharper. All this stuff is common knowledge
Ross: Also, Olave comes from another projected low scoring game
RC: I didn't think he'd be that highly owned. But many are slave to air yards.
Ross: To give you an idea, of the top 10 projected owned guys I haven't already mentioned, the others are Higgins, DeVonta, Meyers, and Curtis
RC: Next you'll tell me Mack Hollins is a top owned
Ross: All "sneaky" value guys. But the obvious sneaky picks aren't sneaky these days. We have to dig deeper or fade the obvious
RC: Agholor is probably high rate too
Ross: Hollins is not this week, but he's been popping up as a nice value since last week. I played him like 10% last week, I think. Surprised that one hasn't popped yet. With news that Renfrow is out he should tick up though
Ross: Agholor isn't either surprisingly. Everyone gravitated to Meyers against the Ravens
RC: I am not ashamed to against BAL secondary
Ross: Not after that travesty last week
RC: Ok, that's a wrap. Good luck to you...and everyone
