- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Chargers 20, Falcons 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Another week…another game Anthony Lynn tries to invent new ways to look dumb/like he has no idea what he is doing and finding new ways to lose games – but the joke is on the Falcons…the Fighting Anthony Lynn’s won a game, a late game comeback by Justin Herbert to save the day.
The Chargers are better/more talented than the Falcons’, but through Anthony’s ridiculousness…the Chargers were losing this game 17-10 with just a few minutes remaining. The most egregious thing Lynn has done recently is reel Justin Herbert in to becoming a screen pass game QB because the ‘holy’ Austin Ekeler returned to action. My parents and grandparents…and wife…and kids…and my dog, combined, don’t love me as much as Anthony Lynn loves Austin Ekeler (and Tyrod Taylor).
The one obvious God’s gift Lynn has…Justin Herbert…he’s either tried to keep him behind Tyrod Taylor – or his new alternative is just having him throw bubble screens to Ekeler every other play. Wasting Herbert’s gift – downfield throwing. Hebert’s gift (and results) has been historic this season, so it only makes sense to build the offense away from what Herbert has done and make everything Ekeler-centric.
You cannot make up how utterly ridiculous/derelict NFL head coaches are. Mike McCarthy and Anthony Lynn make more money in a few days at their jobs than most of us will all year but a wide margin. I try not to dwell on it. Just weeping into my pillow quietly at night.
Once down 17-10 with minutes remaining, Herbert was unleashed and led a late TD drive – scoring with 1:10 remaining to tie it 17-17. A Matt Ryan pick on the very next offensive play got LAC back the ball with 0:36 left at their own 33-yard line. Herbert hit an 8-yard, then 15-yard pass play back-to-back, and then a 25-yard precise bullet with 0:16 left to get into FG range for the win.
None of this will register with or dawn on Lynn for his next game.
The Chargers made the mistake of beating Atlanta and thus going to (4-9) and losing the draft pick tiebreaker spot to (4-9) Atlanta. The Chargers lose when they win. Neither team is going anywhere the rest of this season, and both should be searching for new head coaches in January.
I swear, if they bring back Anthony Lynn for 2021…
You know they’re going to, right? Just to mess with me. Him and Matt Nagy are locks to retain their jobs just to torture me. Darn you NFL!!!!
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I want to point out two things about the Atlanta passing game…
1) You do realize that Matt Ryan (21-32 for 224 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs) has totally collapsed this season? It’s a borderline Carson Wentz collapse, but no one cares about the Falcons or Matt Ryan, so it’s not harped on like it is with Wentz.
4 TDs/6 INTs in his last four games.
Since Week 3, and minus his one good game in that stretch (Week 6 v. MIN, 4 TDs/0 INT), Ryan has thrown for 9 TDs/10 INTs in that span…10 games. He’s thrown for 300+ yards in a game just twice in his last 12 games. All this is very un-Matt Ryan like.
2) The best thrower/QB on the Falcons is WR Russell Gage (5-82-0/7, 1-1 passing, 39-yard TD). He’s thrown two passes this season, both beautiful deep throws…one for a TD here, and the other a 30+ yard TD to Julio Jones who dropped it.
Gage can really throw the ball, so it only makes sense that he threw his first beauty Week 2…and no one ever called the play again for 12 weeks. Oh, Dirk Koetter…you’re such an offensive guru. I can’t believe Matt Ryan has turned to crap and Dan Quinn got fired after 4 weeks when he has your utter offensive brilliance on his staff. One guarantee for 2021…Dirk Koetter will be the O-C for an NFL team in 2021, once fired from Atlanta. The NFL can’t help itself but to do dumb things repeatedly.
Aside from Gage at QB, and Koetter – Russell Gage is a really quality/solid slot WR. He kinda falls between the cracks but he shouldn’t. His last 4 games: 4.7 rec., 56.3 yards, 0.25 rec. TDs per game…along with a passing TD. He’s a WR3 with WR2 upside that he’ll throw for a TD in a game…unless Koetter waits 12 more weeks to call the play again. FYI…he won’t have a chance to do so 12 weeks from now in Atlanta…
Passing aside, Gage is a nice, legit NFL slot WR.
-- Justin Herbert (36-44 for 243 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is so-so-so very good. It’s a shame what Lynn has done to him lately. Anthony Lynn only wants Austin Ekeler to touch the ball. Herbert, and his successful downfield passing ways, is annoying to Lynn.
The Herbert numbers with and without Ekeler all game…
1.0 TD passes/1.25 INTs per game = With Ekeler (5 games)
2.85 TD passes/0.59 INTs per game Without Ekeler (7 games)
-- Justin Jackson (3-9-0, 3-10-0/3) was activated off IR for this game…and thus Josh Kelley (another Lynn non-favorite) goes inactive.
-- Todd Gurley (6-19-0, 2-12-0/3) looks sketchy to me still.
The speed/movement is getting back to more normal, coming off his knee issues from prior weeks…the burst was showing a bit in this game, but he’s slowing down/hesitating into contact…not like Gurley. I’ve seen him cowering into contact a bunch Weeks 12-13, but just some this Week 14 game. I think he’s subconsciously trying to protect himself. I hope the Falcons just stop forcing him out there…but they won’t.
Ito Smith (11-42-0, 1-3-0/1) will be in a support tole again this week.
-- Tyron Johnson (6-55-1/7) played a quality game here. Nothing special…just good/useful. Mike Williams got hurt very early and thus Johnson got a big opportunity.
If Williams (and Allen) can play this week, Tyron is meaningless for FF Week 15. As is Jalen Guyton (1-8-0/3).
-- LAC IDP notes…
Kyzir White (7 tackles) is back and right back into the lineup for 7 tackles…he’s been a good tackle accumulator all season, when playing.
White’s return didn’t stop/slow Kenneth Murray (7 tackles)…Murray looked good again, had 7 tackles, played 98% of the snaps. He’s really settling in now as a foundational ILB for LAC.
Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = Guyton
57 = K Allen
54 = Tyron Johnson
02 = Mk Williams
44 = Ekeler
23 = Ballage
11 = JJax
48 = Ridley
41 = Gage
28 = Powell
13 = Blake
33 = Stocker
33 = H Hurst
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Titans 31, Jaguars 10
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was the garden-variety beat down of the Jaguars you would expect to happen with a bad team purposefully starting Mike Glennon. The Jaguars almost scored first, but they had their FG attempt blocked and it was all downhill from there. 17-3 Titans at the half. 31-3 Titans mid-4th-quarter. 31-10 final.
I might have saved this game report to the very last one of the week, because it’s kinda useless for projecting ahead handling the Jags is not a big deal, but I wanted to explore/look at the change back to Gardner Minshew…and the impact that might have on FF-things, if any.
Why is Doug Marrone going back to Minshew now…why try to stop losing for Trevor Lawrence? I think they see the Jets’ chances to win a game the last few weeks went nowhere and now they play three playoff type teams to end the season…the Jets aren’t winning a game this year (even Week 17), so the Jags ain’t getting Trevor Lawrence.
*Although if NE is out of the playoff race, they might lose to NYJ Week 17, on purpose, so the Jets don’t get Trevor.
Jacksonville is more dangerous when Gardner Minshew is starting, and his only real shot at another win is probably Week 16 hosting Chicago. We still project Jacksonville to lose out and finish (1-15), a game behind (0-16) NYJ for the #1 overall draft pick in 2021.
Tennessee took care of business and jumps to (9-4), on their way to (11-5) most likely…and either the AFC South champs or a strong wild card.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- So, Gardner Minshew (18-31 for 178 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is back in…what does this mean for fantasy? Obviously, it helps all the WRs…except Mike Glennon’s favorite Collin Johnson. Minshew is better with Chark-Cole-Shenault.
Let’s look at each of them for the road ahead…
1) D.J. Chark (2-16-0/9) – for sure Minshew’s #1 look but there are several issues to worry about here. First, Chark has been nothing of late…total garbage for most of the last 8-9 weeks. However, most of his tail off has been with Luton-Glennon.
4.4 rec. (6.8 targets), 49.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game Weeks 1-6 with Minshew…not great but not bad. Better in games with favorable matchup, total failure facing top CBs (HOU/Roby and LAC/Hayward).
Chark draws Marlon Humphrey or Jimmy Smith Week 15…so, I wouldn’t go there.
2) Keelan Cole (7-67-1/12)? I never know what Cole we’re getting…he’s either a WR1 or WR8 week-to-week. More not-WR1-2 weeks than is. He gets whichever Ravens CB is not covering Chark…but if Jimmy Smith is out for this game, maybe Cole has some hope for a week.
3) Laviska Shenault (6-49-0/11, 1-2-0) might draw Marcus Peters, and that’s the best BAL matchup to get (if Smith is playing). However, Shenault hasn’t been overly impressive. He’s been fine/solid-ish but nothing special. Under 50 yards receiving the past 6 games in-a-row. Not a lot of ‘wow’ watching him play.
I like all the Jags’ WRs better with Minshew, but Gardner’s jump back in comes right when they face the very stout Ravens secondary.
-- Quick Jags’ RB note…
Devine Ozigbo (4-30-0/4) got into the game late for some garbage-time/game-ending passing game work. Ozigbo definitely looks the part…looks like he’s been lifting his entire time on I.R. He looked quick and lean/muscular not bulky-muscular. He might get a few touches down the stretch just to relieve James Robinson.
I would say that Ozigbo is the for-sure handcuff for JRob the ROS, if that even matters.
-- The Titans’ TE situation is as messy and useless as the Colts TE trio…four TEs are rotating in-and-out for the Titans now.
Jonnu Smith (2-20-0/2) is still ‘the leader’/the starter, but he has been nothing for fantasy since like Week 4…yet, I still see him ranked in the top 15 TE week-to-week for analysts. He isn’t even in the top 25 right now.
Geoff Swaim (3-34-1/3) plays a lot and caught a TD pass here…but he’s nothing exciting for FF.
The Anthony Firkser (1-5-0/1) hype train has derailed…MyCole Pruitt plays more than Firkser. And for the record, Firkser looks terrible on tape lately too. No interest now or later with him.
-- I cannot figure out Corey Davis (3-34-0/3). This should have been a great spot for him, and yet he did little…nor was he targeted much.
One TD in his last 6 games.
3-11-3 for catches in a game the past three games.
I think his 11-182-1/12 game Week 13 vs. CLE has everyone jacked up but outside of that he’s been a WR3-4 since Week 9 (ignoring Week 13).
Good matchup with DET this week, but is it? Can Davis do anything with it?
-- Two IDP notes…
TEN SAF Armani Hooker (7 tackles, 1 TFL) got the start with Kenny Vaccaro out…and delivered a nice FF game. He should be starting over Vaccaro anyway. Hooker looks very solid/promising for IDP in the weeks/years to come.
JAX DE/OLB K’Lavon Chaisson (0 tackles, 3 QB hits) is starting to percolate a little, but the Jaguars aren’t pushing him into playing time for some reason. He’s a top draft pick but plays about half the snaps in games.
1.0 sacks this year…terrible.
2 QB hits total Weeks 1-12, but then 5 QB hits just the last two games…he’s starting to show signs.
And from watching him here…there were some moves he put on where he was unblockable, too quick/fast and spin moving away from blockers with ease. His time might be about to come.
-- The Titans-DST is untrusted by all, but they had a nice game here. As they should/can against the Jags with Mike Glennon. Before you write them off as lucky one week…they have Chase Daniel (not Stafford) this week. Might be another DST1 week for them.
Snap Counts of Interest:
40 = JRob
22 = Ogunbowale
06 = Ozigbo
41 = Jonnu
34 = Pruitt
32 = Swaim
16 = Firkser
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Ravens 47, Browns 42
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I’m really not a fan of any particular team, just whatever team I’ve bet on that particular moment…but I was a Browns fan in spirit last night. I really wanted them to get over on the Ravens, for Baker’s sake…for AFC North chaos’s sake…for long suffering Browns’ fan sakes.
As soon as I saw the Brownies tie it with a minute left, I knew Justin Tucker was winning that game…and he did.
I pray more of you won your FF games by the Tucker last second kick then those beaten by the final play being ruled a safety for the Ravens defense.
We could pick through this game to complain about why one coach did this or didn’t do that and they shoulda done something else. In the end, it was just a highly entertaining game that either team could’ve won. The Ravens losing so many defensive players in-game and then losing Lamar for a series+…that all factored in as well, but the Ravens won so ‘who cares’? The Browns proved they are solid but not quite ready for the big time (they should’ve put Baltimore away when they had them down early)…but it ends up a loss that quasi-feels like a win.
Baltimore sustaining/playing through so many injuries and losing Lamar for a stretch and playing at Cleveland…to go in and win this game, coming from behind – gritty win. Still, the 2020 Ravens look nothing like the 2019 domination team they had.
The Ravens get to (8-5) with the win, and keep their playoff hopes alive. They can win out (JAX-NYG-CIN) and get to (11-5) and a strong wild card. At minimum, they should be (10-6) and a wild card for sure.
The Browns are now (9-4) and will also be a wild card. They have the Jets Week 16, so they will get to a minimum 10 wins -- and that’s a wild card spot as well. The Browns might hit 11 wins in the end. Baltimore has the tiebreaker over them for seeding with a pair of victories over the Browns this season.
Either way…both the Browns and Ravens are playoff bound, as are the two top AFC South teams (IND and TEN). There will be one spot left for the wild card/#7 seed…it’s between Miami, Las Vegas, and New England.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- It’s so good to see Baker Mayfield (28-47 for 343 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 5-23-1) coming into his own…so good for me. I thought he was going to be a top FF scorer in 2019…unleashed by Freddie Kitchens to throw at will. The opposite happened.
That guy I was looking for in 2019, he’s starting to arise in 2020…
Back-to-back 330+ yard passing games for Baker.
8 TDs/1 INT in his last three games…the #3 FF PPG QB in that span (4pts per pass TD).
13 TDs/2 INTs his last 7 games.
Take away/ignore his two games played in high wind gusts (all passing games died in those games): 23 TD passes in 11 games this season…over 2+ passing TDs per game. That’s high-end performance as a passer.
I’m not discussing Baker with the Mahomes-Allen-Herbert-Murray types for FF, because his offense isn’t set up for that kind of FF success (in my opinion) – but Baker has talent like them, as a passer…he’s got QB1 aspirations for the future again. So good to see…so good to see I’m not crazy with what I saw with Baker.
We’re getting to the point where an NFL team/the Cleveland Browns having Baker…they got a chance to win games strictly because of Baker. He led Cleveland back several times in this game. He’s starting to ‘feel it’ in the NFL. His talent could not be hidden for long. OBJ being gone has reignited Baker’s career.
-- I’d rather have Baker as my NFL QB than Lamar Jackson (11-17 for 163 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 9-124-2) but LJax is definitely more fun to watch.
Lamar is starting to score again for fantasy as well. Weeks 12-14, I mentioned that Bakeris the #3 QB in FF PPG scoring among QBs in that span…well, Lamar is #1. Another big week potential for Jackson this week vs. Jacksonville.
-- Lamar is starting to score for fantasy because he’s just taking the offense…he’s doing it himself. That mindset is killing off everything else Ravens for fantasy.
How can you trust J.K. Dobbins (13-53-1) in this offense for FF? He's in a split with Gus Edwards (7-49-01-4-0/1) and Lamar is taking much of the juicy run game activity. You can’t trust JKD next week…or next season. Lamar isn’t going anywhere nor is he changing his approach.
Nor will John Harbaugh change his approach.
Nor can Marquise Brown (2-50-1/6) catch passes. If Diontae Johnson is getting benched in-game for ‘drops’, the Brown should be as well. Diontae’s issue is mental…Brown’s issue is – he’s not even positioning his hands to catch passes properly. He’s catching passes like if I tossed you an infant to him – to make that catch you’d create a basket with your arms to haul it in…that’s what Brown is doing, trying to catch passes with his arms trapping it to his chest. That’s a bad sign/flaw…he’s not trusting his hands and is overcompensating/adjusting his catch style.
Brown’s career is in real trouble of being a ‘bust’. FYI…he was the top WR picked in his draft. The surest bet in all of life – whatever WR is taken first by the NFL in a draft (the past several years this is true)…sure fire bust/disappointment/nowhere close to the top WR in his class when we look back a few years from now. That’s the holy, unquestionable NFL scouting for you…
-- One of the reasons why I can’t see Baker Mayfield as a top 3-5 FF QB ahead is the Browns are built for a strong run game. They possess two of the best RBs in the NFL right now.
Just two quick comments on them…
No RB is running with more passion than Kareem Hunt (6-33-1, 6-77-1/7). No one is working harder, running with reckless abandon (in a good way), than Hunt. He’s a top 10-15 RB in the NFL…and he’s the ‘backup’ for Cleveland. Kudos to the former GM who got fired last year…who doesn’t seem all that dumb right about now…looking at all of the Browns’ roster.
Nick Chubb (17-82-2, 2-21-0/2) is the single best-looking runner/RB, to my scouting eye, in the NFL. Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Chubb is yielding numbers to Kareem Hunt, which is NFL-smart but FF mild depressing, but Chubb is putting up big numbers despite that.
2021 fantasy RB rankings…Henry/McCaffrey…Cook…???...Chubb?
-- As Baker rises, so does his surrounding weaponry…
Rashard Higgins (6-68-1/10) is finally settling in as the guy I was looking for 4-5 weeks ago but gave up on – but I think the wind gust games hurt him and hid him.
6.0 rec., 81.5 yards, 1.0 TDs per game the past two games. Oddly, you know how many fumbles he had in this game? Four. None of them lost.
Actually, the Browns had 7 fumbles…none of them lost in this game.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (3-74-0/5) made some plays here too. He’s a pretty solid NFL WR prospect. Iffy for high FF production, but a very solid hand for an NFL team. He’s showing some blips/signs of a future.
I knew Jarvis Landry (6-52-0/9) would get shut down with CB Jimmy Smith back…and Landry was getting cut off completely, but then Smith got hurt and Landry got freed up to have a decent game. You may be sick of me talking about Jimmy Smith, but it’s a real thing to have to plan around. The Browns got back into this about the time Smith went down again.
-- The Browns-DST is primed to lead fantasy teams to the title the next two weeks…at NYG, at NYJ Weeks 15-16. A perfect storm/opportunity.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
44 = Chubb
39 = Hunt
55 = Bryant
51 = Njoku
37 = Dobbins
16 = Edwards
06 = J Hill
01 = Ingram (the first play of the game)
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Eagles 24, Saints 21
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Joe Burrow debuted, looked fine, and almost upset the Chargers opening day. Never blinked in NFL competition, despite getting hit a thousand times after that.
Justin Herbert debuted Week 2 with 15 minutes pregame notice and almost knocked off KC in OT…he looked like he had played at the pro level for a decade from his first snap.
Jalen Hurts debuts Week 14, without a hitch in his game or mannerisms and knocks off the (then) #1 NFC seeded team who had won their last 9 in a row. Halting his own team’s 4 game losing streak.
This all happening in a COVID year with limited training camp and no preseason games.
Can some NFL analyst please tell me again how complex the NFL is and how rookie QBs need time to adjust to the game speed?
Someone from NFL analyst world also please tell me how great Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, and Dwayne Haskins are – when they look incompetent more and more as their career’s go on?
Additionally, can someone please explain to me why Tua Tagovailoa looks like a scared high school quarterback every Sunday, and yet dares get mentioned in the same breath as Burrow-Herbert…and now Hurts. Hurts is allowed to be in that grouping, Tua is not – but the NFL will lie to you (and themselves) for 2-3 years telling you it’s not so, and they’ll belch about how great Tua looks, and he’s just like Burrow-Herbert.
How is it people scouted Tua as the #1 QB for his draft class two years before entering the NFL? He’s not even in the top three. Nick Saban…why did you switch from Hurts to Tua? You won ‘that’ game, but maybe you were going to win it anyway? Oh, sorry…I can’t criticize Saban or Urban Meyer…Urban Meyer of the ‘Dwayne Haskins is my guy’…as Joe Burrow transfers out because he isn’t ‘the guy’. Wanna reexamine that one too while we are at it?
Is there any time that national media NFL (or CFB) analysis would like to be right about something, anything…just once?
Actually, please don’t…you give my business a pulse…just as you are.
Why all this incessant anti-NFL stuff this week/year? I think it’s important to reinforce the fact that they don’t know what they’re talking about. Maybe we don’t either, but I know they don’t. Their opinions and takes and scouting…it all should be consumed with total skepticism. Honestly, it should be consumed assuming they’re probably wrong…then trying to find out the truth from there. There’s fantasy and handicapping profit in understanding ‘them’ and how wrong they are constantly.
So, with that…
Jalen Hurts, the QB they dismissed for the 2020 NFL Draft, defeated the previously undefeated Taysom Hill, who THEY are still butt-sore that their guy Jameis Winston didn’t start over. Hurts out Taysom Hill’d Taysom Hill…which my Hurts scouting (in general) has been just that – Hurts was/is a better version of what Taysom Hill could be. It’s not an insult to Taysom…it’s just Hurts was raised in the new era of QB play, he’s better groomed for this (but Taysom is really good for the NFL too).
The Eagles got up 17-0 and left the Saints reeling. The Saints gathered themselves up and got back into it in the 2nd-half, closing it to 17-14 Eagles at the end of three quarters. That’s when Jalen Hurts went back to work and led a crucial TD drive to get back to a two-score lead with 6+ minutes left. The Eagles defense held off a late Saints TD and booked a really impressive win.
Believe it or not, the Eagles are back in the NFC East hunt at (4-8-1). The Eagles just have to match Washington’s win total in the end and Philly wins the division because of the tie. Washington has 6 wins now, but they might get stuck there if Dwayne Haskins is the QB the rest of the way. If Alex Smith is back, it might be too tall an order. If the Eagles can get within a game of Washington after the next two games…Week 17 is Washington at Philadelphia. We project the Eagles to finish (7-8-1), and thus NFC East Champs…but (6-9-1) and not winning the division has about as much probability too.
The Saints’ world just crashed down on them. If Doug Pederson would have just gone with Carson Wentz… The Saints fall to (10-3) and give the #1 seed to Green Bay…it’s GB’s to lose now (GB already beat the Saints this season). Now, the Saints host KC Week 15…which means they likely fall to (10-4) and the #1 seed hope really slips away.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Jalen Hurts (17-30 for 167 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 18-106-0) was exactly who I thought he’d be as a player…except I didn’t think he’d be there in his debut game…against white hot Saints defense.
This is who he will be every week, approximately…200 +/- passing yards, 50-100 rushing yards, a passing TD per game, and 10+ rushing TDs per season. Hurts is a much better passer than Lamar Jackson, and is a more physical runner but not as elusive as Lamar. Hurts is also a ‘face of the franchise’ type player…a humble leader, great human being. I don’t believe Lamar is anywhere near Hurts’s class of locker room guy.
Philadelphia…you’ve got your franchise QB for the next decade, congrats! We’ll try and forget you whining all summer about why the Eagles would take THIS QB, wasting a 2nd-round pick.
Other Hurts thoughts…
1) Doug Pederson should be fired for saying, post-game, that he doesn’t know who will be starting the upcoming game. I’m serious. If I were Jeffrey Lurie, I’d quick kiss my half-my-age wife good-bye, tell her I’d be right back, and go down into Pederson’s office and sweep my arm across his desk and knock everything off and tell him to get the hell out of the building.
*On Monday Pederson named Hurts as starter, but Sunday night he said he hadn’t made up his mind.
2) That statement of not naming a starter goes to show Pederson is actively trying to get detached from the franchise and that he never wanted Hurts in the first place. And it shows he is an incompetent or subversive manager, and it should not be allowed to stand.
3) Even worse, I think Pederson waited/relented to start Hurts versus the Saints to try and embarrass Hurts and show that he (and Wentz) were the right duo all along.
If I were an Eagles fan, I would be livid. I like Doug Pederson, but this is treasonous, and I think seals his fate…which is what he wants. If you can bet on such things, bet that Pederson is gone as soon as the Eagles’ season is over.
Doug Pederson doesn’t deserve to have his job saved by ANOTHER backup QB he DIDN’T want saving his ass again (see: Nick Foles…who gave Pederson a career longevity).
-- The Jalen Hurts ‘targets’/surrounding ‘things’ report…
OK, so we know Hurts is good already. We know his style. How did it effect the other players from a fantasy/output scenario? Couple thoughts…
1) Miles Sanders (14-115-2, 4-21-0/5) had a big stat line, but again…minus the one big run it was horrible. But I’m more encouraged here than I expected to be…because Hurts looked very comfortable checking down appropriately to Sanders in the passing game and Hurts is not a TD hog, he will let the RB do some work.
I feared for Sanders’ fantasy output going into this, but now I’m more neutral/OK.
2) Dallas Goedert (4-43-0/6) seemed to be the pitch-and-catch comfortable throw for Hurts. Goedert over all the WRs or Sanders.
And can I say again…Goedert looks amazing. Kelce-Waller…Goedert is my leader in the offseason clubhouse to be the # 3 FF TE hopeful.
3) Jalen Reagor (2-46-0/4) seemed to be the top WR look, but it wasn’t urgent or all that effective. Reagor did miss a 50+ yard bomb…thrown a foot too long and Reagor didn’t go all out for it and hit his hand. It was almost a (3-100-0/4) game that people would have fallen in love with.
At a minimum, that missed bomb connection – another example of how comfortable and accurate Hurts is already. Hurts throws beautiful passes – he put that bomb right on Reagor’s hands in stride from across the field (right to left throw). It’s stunning that these young QBs just walk in and debut and look better than Carson Wentz ever has in his entire career (as just one QB example).
-- Miles Sanders didn’t suffer the same passing game fate Alvin Kamara (11-50-1, 7-44-0/10) did early on with Taysom. However, Taysom seems to have fixed that aspect of his game already…10 targets/7 catches here for AK.
3 catches, 7 yards, 7 targets = Kamara’s first 3 games with Taysom
7 catches, 44 yards, 10 targets = This one game with Taysom.
A great sign for Kamara back to his PPR ways.
-- It’s been a lot of Jalen Hurts talk this whole recap, but the Eagles-DST deserves half the credit along with Hurts.
I thought the Eagles defense was playing well, playing their hearts out during the losing streak…it’s just Carson Wentz and the lack of offense was killing them, and they eventually rolled over in recent games in the 2nd-half. Not here. A solid performance again. Week 16 at Dallas has potential for a DST play…IF the Eagles are still viable for the playoffs. Once Philly is done for the playoffs that group is bailing on Pederson/the season.
-- IDP Note…
PHI DE Josh Sweat (5 tackles, 2.0 sacks) had one of those games…one of those games where you’d swear he’s a top NFL pass rusher. He looks like a video game creation pass rusher, but he’s so hit and miss.
3.0 sacks in his first 4 games…then 1.0 sacks in his next 8 games to start the 2020 season. He’s a very patch/spotty/flashy not consistent pass rush prospect.
If he ever puts it all together…
Sweat has been on our IDP Stash report for three years now…hoping…waiting.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Sanders
15 = Scott
02 = Clement
59 = Goedert
50 = Ertz
47 = Reagor
31 = Jeffery
22 = Watkins
11 = Fulgham
45 = Kamara
20 = Latavius
36 = Cook
18 = JHill
15 = Trautman
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Bills 26, Steelers 15
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I’m not saying I’m perfect in football analysis. Trying to guess ‘which way the wind will blow next’ game--by-game, play-by-play with unpredictable injuries, penalties called (or not called), the way a football bounces…you’re bound to be wrong about something every day. However, I was not wrong about my main team-based assertions for the last week/several weeks – I proclaimed that the Rams and Bills were two of the three elite teams in the NFL…the other being the Chiefs.
You saw this game.
Was I lying? Was I ‘bad’ at my job? No, I was not. Not here. The Buffalo Bills ruled here…a changing of the guard moment. The Buffalo Bills are more what we have thought of the Steelers for years and most of the 2020 season – top team, Super Bowl threat, bulldog tough QB who can pull out any game/can put a team on his shoulders. The Steelers have become what football society thinks of the Bills the past few years/2020 season – good team, tough out, a QB with limitations, but a team/QB that’s not good enough to be great/they are not a Super Bowl threat.
I’m not pointing all this out to celebrate myself, but I am pretty pleased about it – I work hard, I want to succeed. No, I’m presenting this game as more evidence that NFL analysis is lacking and there is a way we can profit off of that – whether via fantasy, or with the Bills (and Rams)…betting them when the analysts are all ‘missing it’. Two key bets I promoted this week (BUF and LAR) both cashed in. I promoted those bets because: (a) I believed they were two of the best teams in football, and more importantly (b) that because the analysts were ‘missing it’ on them, the point spreads/line would be suppressed because the media/analyst class was missing it…and thus the lapdog fans were gonna be asleep on it/betting it the wrong way. The names ‘Steelers’ and ‘Patriots’ carry legacy love/respect…and the Bills and Rams have little/no respect in football society – it was the perfect storm week to bet the untrusted favorites there.
*Please early bet Buffalo -4.5 at Denver this week, under the same theory*
The 1st-quarter of this game was 0-0…a defensive slog in a late-breaking wet/mist, mild wind, cold backdrop. Early on, the Steelers looked a bit more amped and I was a bit worried the Steelers were going to hang tough/have a chance to win it. When the Steelers took a 7-0 lead with 8+ minutes left in the 2nd-half, I got more worried (bettors are always worried about everything, so it’s normal).
From that point, the Bills started feeling it and scored the next 23 points to take a strong lead going into the 4th-quarter. It wasn’t so much about the lead as the way the Bills took it – after a quarter of ‘feeling out’ the Steelers, Josh Allen and the defense put the hammer down and took this game by force – and the Steelers wilted minute-by-minute. They wilted because they have a lesser roster of talent and lesser coaching…they could not hang with the Buffalo Bills here and won’t for the near future. The ‘Pittsburgh Steelers’…that concept, what image/respect that brings to mind – that exists in the form of the Buffalo Bills now…tougher team, better QB and defense, and better run organization top-to-bottom.
That’s not a slam/mocking of the Steelers…I just believe the Bills are on the verge, or have arrived, as the best top-to-bottom football team and organization in all of football. No one else thinks this outside of ketchup and mustard-soaked Bills Mafia fans (it’s a thing in Buffalo if you didn’t know...https://youtu.be/jjQbksJyEO0). Polite NFL society is not buying this at all. In fact, they’re going to bury it by ignoring it…then trying to destroy it. T-minus weeks and counting that Josh Allen’s ‘racially insensitive’ social media posts (that were an issue right before his NFL Draft) will be brought up to undermine him and the entire team’s momentum. When you see it, know it was planned/on purpose…with intent.
How dare a football team, and a quarterback, defy the establishment thinking and defeat their precious ordained teams? You think I’m a conspiracy theory nut that is so anti-NFL and media that I see ghosts all day long? If Buffalo makes it to the AFC Finals and especially if they make it to the Super Bowl – THEY (the media and opposing teams who would benefit from hurting Buffalo…like the other NY teams, the other AFC East teams especially) are coming after Josh Allen via the media as the way to pierce this bubble.
Sean McDermott has built the Buffalo Bills his way, not the NFL accepted way. One of his first, best moves as HC of the Bills was trading away ‘the great’ Sammy Watkins (a move critically crushed by the media at the time). He’s built a team for Buffalo. He’s built a team to last. He got Josh Allen ‘right’ when all smart scouts like me mocked his abilities/the draft pick. Sean McDermott is the new Bill Belichick…in-hiding. The single smartest personnel man + coach in the NFL…and has been for a while.
This win over Pittsburgh was no fluke – they beat down the Steelers. The score not fully reflecting the true/widening gap between the two teams. If it were played on a clean/dome field instead of in the cold/rain – the Bills might have won this game scoring 35+ points on the vaunted Steelers defense.
Buffalo rises to (10-3)…a Hail Murray from being (11-2) and in the #1 seed discussion, but they’ve already lost to KC this season (in the rain), so Buffalo is likely locked in as the #2 seed. They should finish with 12 wins, and then 13 wins if Week 17 is a needed game for them…Week 17 might have them locked to the #2 seed and playing backups.
The Steelers should’ve seen the ghost of Christmas Future here, as they fall to (11-2). They are not a legit top/high-end NFL team anymore. They’ve fallen from the #1 seed two weeks ago to the #3 seed and falling. If the Browns win Monday night (writing this before the MNF game), then the Steelers have a one-game lead over the Browns with three more to play, including Week 17 at Cleveland. Can you imagine if the Steelers collapse to the finish and the Browns beat them Week 17 for the division title? The Steelers are falling into football purgatory…too good to break up/rebuild and not good enough to be a Super Bowl threat. The Steelers have an easy win Week 15 at Cincy, but then there could be a lot at stake Week 16 vs. Indy, if the Browns are right behind them.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I guess we need to start with the Pittsburgh Steelers WR report…
On Sunday morning I discussed the risk in Diontae Johnson (4-40-0/7)…that considering this was a playoff game week for most…that Mike Tomlin speaking words all week backed himself into a corner where to protect his image he would have to pull any WR dropping the ball in this game. He had to.
That puts a lot of pressure on any receiver, even one who hadn’t dropped passes. Makes a WR think about it every second of the game…overthinking. On cue, the very first pass…a quick pass to Diontae and he gaffed it. I thought he’d come out right then and there, but Tomlin left him in. On the second series, Diontae dropped another easy pass…and then out of the game he went until like the 4th-quarter.
So many thoughts here…
1) Tomlin had to do it, had to pull him. Simple passes being gaffed by Diontae. It looks like ‘the yips’…like what happens to some baseball players. It gets mental. It’s hard to get out of.
2) This is an issue for next week…a fantasy issue. You know that Diontae is one play away from sitting the rest of the game. You also have a suspicion that they will try to get him going, and he could have a knockout/week-winning performance in response against a weak CIN defense.
3) Tomlin is making this worse. When Davante Adams struggled with something very similar in his 2nd-year, the fans destroyed him. Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers defended Adams and built his confidence back…even at the expense of lost series/plays even games. They did the same when Mason Crosby had a horrific season of kicking.
Look at where Davante and Crosby are at now? Their almost career-ending ‘bad’ seasons are not even remembered now.
Tomlin took his typical fake tough guy approach (making tough proclamations of what he will do/what he won’t tolerate), and it will probably destroy Diontae from here on in. Tomlin has an image in the media…he feeds off it – the tough guy. Like a not-as-funny Rex Ryan. Tomlin, to a degree, exists because of the tough guy image…and maybe some of it is real – whatever it is…the way he’s managing this issue might have taken a highly valuable asset/piece of art and put a giant scratch in it destroying its value. Tomlin made a media proclamation on something he could’ve not made anyone’s business or went out of his way to publicly support the player(s). Instead, he’s Mr. Tough Guy. We’ll see where that gets him.
4) Because of Tomlin’s approach and subsequent outcome, in my opinion, Diontae should be benched next week going forward and they run a JuJu-Washington-Claypool…put Claypool in Diontae’s role, which is how Claypool started to explode weeks ago when Diontae was out. They won’t…they’ll wait to see if Diontae drops another pass.
5) Everything I’ve ever said/critiqued on NFL analyst’s not great at their jobs, and specifically Cris Collinsworth, immediately came true here. The most glaring example of these people do not really have a feel for what they are watching and needing to communicate to the audience…
When Diontae dropped his second pass to force a stalled drive/punt, obviously the ‘drops’ thing was discussed/mentioned again – it was only like the biggest headline going into this game. But here’s the crime… So, when Diontae was not out there the first play of the Steelers’ next drive…no one noticed/mentioned. Not Cris, not Tirico, not highly-paid Michelle Tafoya…not even merit-not-nepotism-based-hired Jak Collinsworth – play after play with no Diontae on the field and it wasn’t even mentioned. Series after series went by…not a peep. It was a HUGE moment/thing…and none of them noticed the Steelers’ #1 WR was benched/not there.
I think 4-5 series later, Collinsworth finally realized it/a producer likely saw it on Twitter and fed into Cris’s ear.
How are you analyzing games and didn’t notice the Steelers #1 WR had been pulled for drops…when that was a big storyline coming into the game?!?!?!?
I guess Cris was too busy writing his Oscar acceptance speech for his dazzling acting in that stupid in-game commercial where he’s analyzing Fletcher Cox. Wow, you noticed Fletcher Cox has great feet (and you circled it on your laptop so I knew what feet were and where they were located on the human body…thank, Criss!)…that’s your big computer-AI/PFF takeaway? Where do I rush to get my PFF subscription? How about less acting/money grabbing and more paying attention to your game work/observations? https://youtu.be/QKrfNdBGUF4
6) The future for Diontae?
Sure, he can turn it all around…but I think the meter has to be tipped towards ‘this is a career killer moment’ right now. When Davante Adams struggled with similar issues his 2nd-season, social media hadn’t hit full peak of reach or nastiness. Now, it exists to destroy people at a warp speed.
This situation reminds me more of Jordan Matthews’s career torpedo then it does Davante Adams’s turnaround/rise from the ashes. Hopefully, I’m wrong – but I know NFL analyst’s love nothing more than to scream ‘drop’ at every pass not caught no matter the context and I know they love to destroy careers of players who weren’t ordained top picks by the mainstream scouting society – Diontae checks all those boxes.
Watch the first few minutes of this (or all of it), it should open/start up at the 3:57 mark…this might be shocking to consider knowing what we know now of Davante Adams… https://youtu.be/18x4bmv3M4A?t=237
When Diontae got benched, Chase Claypool (3-15-0/6) played in his place…and, of course, the Bills threw top coverage at him. Why? Because the Bills know what Mike Tomlin doesn’t…Chase Claypool is the best/most dangerous WR on the Steelers. So, it’s smart for him to be on the bench for half the game…by design.
Prior to Diontae getting benched for ‘drops’, Claypool got (essentially) benched last week for ‘leading the team in receiving as a rookie for the season’. So, what does Mike Tomlin want his WRs to do? Failure gets you benched…and success gets you benched? JuJu Smith-Schuster (6-55-1/7) does funny TikTok videos and likes to dance and have fun…and have mediocre performances without Antonio Brown around anymore – I guess that’s the sweet spot for a Steelers’ WR to never get benched.
Claypool should never be off the field. And if he’s a little banged up…then sit him out for a week. Him going in 50% of the game and leaping up for high point throws and coming crashing to earth isn’t going to heal him up faster.
We’ve gone from Diontae as a top 3-5 PPR WR option each week and Chase Claypool as a WR1 non-PPR for the season just a few weeks ago -- to having no FF-confidence in either to start them Week 15…in a primo matchup with the Bengals! Who is to blame (takes down glasses slowly, and cranes neck and eyes to look over at Mike Tomlin).
But Mike Tomlin is so honest, why he even said his team ‘sucked’ a few weeks ago…how refreshing. He must be such a great coach! That’s similar to Pete Carroll as a great coach because he looks and acts younger than his age – it really has nothing to do with the task at hand. We need to judge Tomlin for his on-field results…and things are starting to sour and players are regressing, not improving.
-- Is Ben Roethlisberger (21-37 for 187 for 2 TDs/2 INTs) to blame for the WR woes?
I don’t think the WR issues and rotation is his fault, but I would like to mention – the air is leaking out of the Big Ben balloon. We are watching the decline in real-time. Kinda like watching Tom Brady late last year and this year.
Not that they are done…just they are not the guy/the talent we remember so fondly. Age is coming to get all of us at some point. Bubbles/balloons get popped eventually.
Ben started the season with 22 TDs/4 INTs…but has 7 TDs/5 INTs in his last 4 games, a two game losing streak that’s lucky it’s not three games in a row.
If you gave the Steelers’ 2020 opponents one more TD (7pts) in every game this year, Pittsburgh would be (5-7-1). Their big wins of late are over Jacksonville and Cincy…they’ve struggled/should’ve lost to Dallas (with Gilbert Grape at QB), and almost lost to RG3 and Trace McSorley’s COVID world tour a few Wednesday’s ago.
Diontae and Claypool have these issues that have popped up…but along with that is the slow fade of Big Ben, who is more Alex Smith than Alex Smith now (as a thrower/style).
-- Josh Allen (24-43 for 238 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 6-28-0) is the new, better Big Ben of the NFL. The torch was passed/snatched this game…this season.
You know how I feel about Allen from my reports all season long. No need to retread that – he’s second only to Patrick Mahomes as a QB talent and as an MVP candidate this year.
Just one note to point out…
Early on in this game, Allen struggled a touch/the Steelers defense was playing great for the 1st-quarter+. What’s remarkable/MVP-esque is that Allen flipped a switch and just dominated this defense the last 2+ quarters…a highly respected, very good defense.
-- Speaking of defenses, as I’ve been pushing…the Bills defense is emerging as a top five unit again the past few weeks. I’d argue they are about to pass/should be more feared than the Steelers defense.
I’m not ready to say that for sure, but it’s on the table. We have to recognize the Steelers didn’t have Joe Haden this game and the Steelers have no running game and likes to bench their best receivers. This game may not be the full performance litmus test for the Bills to be judged by.
-- Speaking of the running game for the Steelers…
James Conner (10-18-0) never gets benched. His unproductive running plays are near as bad as Diontae’s drops – at least, Diontae produces around the drops. The drops are a ‘zero’ play. Conner running the ball is usually a ‘zero’ play…what’s the difference? Why isn’t Conner benched?
Jaylen Samuels (4-15-0, 3-18-0/4) is better than James Conner, and I’ve said that since his rookie training camp. He’s shown it on the field when given the full chance. Mike Tomlin is an offensive genius…so, of course, he doesn’t recognize any of this.
We do realize the Steelers offense has become Big Ben as new-age Alex Smith…the top targeted receivers (Diontae and Ebron) can’t catch, the single best WR (Claypool) is not starting, and their single best RB (Samuels) has been running 4th-team all season.
Man, that Mike Tomlin is a great head coach. Who else is to blame for the Steelers collapse-in-progress but Tomlin?
Samuels has seemed to have moved into the #2 role, and a little PPR/3rd-down RB niche…not usable yet for FF, but he might be the true handcuff to Conner right now.
-- Dawson Knox (4-34-0/7) had his most targets in a game in 2020 this game. I’m thinking it is more – the Steelers were down to a 3rd-string/trade deadline acquired LB starting in this game and they exploited it a little.
However, Knox is a talent.
Knox plays with the new/better Big Ben to help push numbers.
And Knox is slowly trending numbers higher – 4 and 4 for catches in games the last two weeks. Two TDs in his last 3 games. Knox can be the Robert Tonyan-ish uprising here...maybe. Allen has never been one to blow things up via the TE, but Josh Allen is constantly doing things I have to catch up to. He might start integrating this new wrinkle (Knox) ahead.
-- Gabriel Davis (3-19-1/8) is going through some woes of his own at WR, despite the fact that he’s scored a TD in three straight games with John Brown out.
Davis has caught 20 of his last 39 targets from Josh Allen…barely 50% connection. The problems are worse in games when he’s starting for Brown. I think Davis is in over his head at this stage – he needs more development, but if Brown is out…Davis is on the field with new-age Big Ben…so, things can happen.
-- PIT LB Avery Williamson (11 tackles) filled in for Robert Spillane with a solid 11 tackle game here. He is set to start for two more weeks (or more) with Spillane out on IR.
Let’s end with something that will take your breath away. I guarantee it…
This is your lead SNF football analyst and purveyor of PFF (you’re going to think this is a joke but you know it cannot be/it’s authentic/real tape and words for a live human being on camera…): https://youtu.be/WC8Elk1LRjs?t=56
Snap Counts of Interest:
60 = Knox
38 = Ebron
29 = Lee Smith
19 = McDonald
44 = Moss
30 = Singletary
27 = Samuels
23 = Conner
05 = Snell
57 = JuJu
46 = JWash
38 = Claypool
28 = Diontae
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Rams 24, Patriots 3
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
*Written before the Sunday games kicked off*
I’ll stick to, and pat myself on the back for, my analysis of the Rams the last few weeks as the reason no detailed game notes (on the teams themselves) are needed for what happened here. I have been saying for weeks that the Rams have the best defense in football – an emergence, upswing to becoming ‘that’ defense…there’s always one each year, it seems, and sometimes they need some time to reveal themselves as the season goes – but one eventually arrives…and that defense, the most dominant defense in the NFL, is one that can carry a team to the Super Bowl. It’s happening with the Rams.
I’ve also promoted (going into Week 14) that there are three elite teams in the NFL currently, and two of them are totally undersold/undervalued by the football analysts…it’s the Bills and the Rams (KC being the other of the top three).
The Rams win decisively on cable television…and yet the analyst story is – Should Cam be benched? Are the Patriots really not going to make the playoffs? Why did the Patriots lose? Do the Patriots regret ditching Tom Brady? Super Bowl redemption for the Rams, from that time the Patriots beat them in the Super Bowl!
The story this week, nationally, will never be – The Rams are the only real NFC threat to the Kansas City Chiefs and are possibly better than the Chiefs because of their defense, and Jared Goff is a really good quarterback. The football media does NOT believe in Goff so therefore they will NOT believe in the Rams. And their way of dealing with it is – ignoring it. It’s not even on purpose – football analysts live in an alternate reality where their pre-programming/coding in their minds dismisses anything Rams, mostly because of what they were told/decided about Goff three+ years ago.
It sounds insane, but I’ve been doing this for 10+ years – it’s real, it is why teams are run so poorly and make such stupid mistakes over and over and over…most NFL people (players, coaches, execs…and the fired/retired ones turned ‘analysts’) have a hive mind/set narratives and never put in the work (or are allowed) to question/test/explore alternatives. To me, the analysts of this business/the NFL don’t put in the work that I do...or what many serious fantasy players and/or handicappers do – the studying, searching, the poking and prodding…doing so for profit in handicapping and fantasy, not for ‘love of the game’.
The research, the questioning, the counter thinking -- It’s life and death for my existence. I have to (try and) know what’s really going on. National Football analysts are paid to be safe mouthpieces and not offer any opinion that doesn’t agree with the ‘hive’. Professionally, it’s best for them not to be wrong alone on any radical thinking items. Plus, the hate mail you get is taxing when you criticize someone’s team or favorite player -- you;re like a heretic in a religion. Analysts are paid to be/it’s better for their careers to just shine a fawning light on stars being stars…i.e. the ‘amazing’ analysis of: “I really like this kid” (or worse “They/the coaches really like this kid”) and everyone on the major networks trying to one up each other on how good Aaron Donald is in their pregame segments. How is that analysis? We all know Aaron Donald and Patrick Mahomes are great…you don’t need to explain why by showing me two cool plays of theirs and hyperventilating over it for 7-11 minutes in a segment or roundtable discussion. Tell me on-field things I don’t know. The mainstream analysts are all ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ together on players/scouting/teams, so no one gets criticized – because if it’s ultimately wrong, they’ll ignore it or have an underlying tone of…hey, EVERYBODY thought that way…so, what am I to do?
Clowns.
Literally.
They paint their face and perform an act/a routine for us…a bunch of ‘tricks’ that are not ‘amazing’, just cheap deception/diversions – they think we’re simpletons and that we’ll clap and bark like seals at their dazzling never-ending handkerchief up the sleeve gag…or flowers out of the top of the magic wand surprise. Next week, watch them pull a quarter out of your ear.
The NFL has production meetings and marketing strategies that comes up with stupid ‘Super Fan’ contests to encourage ridiculous loyalty to a jersey or territory. It seems to work…look at the TV ratings. When the NFL thinks of their audience demo in order to design production, pregame shows, and what ‘hard hitting analysis’ to give to them…this is the thought bubble above Roger Goodell’s head on what he sees among the NFL audience: https://youtu.be/8S_0MWqOkCE
Bill Simmons and Colin Cowherd (among others) were removed from ESPN because they didn’t drink the Kool Aid from the NFL. They rightfully questioned things, offered alternative opinions (whether right/wrong, good/bad). The NFL doesn’t want that. They want stupid, blind loyalists watching and analyzing…thus Michael Irvin, Steve Mariucci, Kurt Warner, and Rich Eisen (nice guy, but he knows his role for the cause) are long-time anchors/stalwarts of the NFL’s own network shows (yes, the NFL has its own network to cover itself…like Communist countries have). The NFL establishment doesn’t want a Pat McAfee (they’ll not suffer him for long…I think they’re trying to see if he will bend to their will for towards them)…instead they give us Booger McFarland and Jason Witten…and coming soon – useful, milquetoast Drew Brees and Greg Olsen.
You’d think NFL coverage would be getting smarter, sharper as we go – instead we are getting dumber in NFL analysis. The NFL establishment has so insulated itself and hired certain types of mouthpieces (and banished/flushed others) that the false reality they’ve built…they actually believe it to be real. They’ve duped themselves. The emperor literally has no clothes.
So, you’re never going to get super-sharp NFL analysis or questioning of things (even if wrong in the end). You get sugary hype or just ignoring things they don’t deem worthy/thought were ‘bad’. The Rams fall into the ignored.
The Rams whacking the Patriots…it’s written off as a mild surprise, but it shouldn’t be. The Rams shouldn’t have been ignored as ‘lucky’ when they punched Seattle Week 10 – the post-game story was about how Russell Wilson had a bad game (something to do with ‘cooking’ I’m sure). When the Rams embarrassed Tampa Bay Week 11…the post-game story the next week was all about Brady and Arians aren’t good for each other. When the Rams slammed Arizona Week 13…everyone was like ‘What’s wrong with this Arizona team, and Kyler is too small to be good I guess?” Week 14, the Rams pull down the Patriots pants on live TV and spank them…and post-game everyone is discussing Cam benching for Stidham and lamenting Belichick for letting Brady go.
The story is, and should have been for several weeks…
1) Jared Goff is a very good, solid+ NFL QB (and has been for years).
2) The Rams are arguably the best team in the NFL and if you set a spread of KC v. LAR on a neutral field…it would be pretty even spread internally, as a base for Vegas line setters -- but then it would wind up coming out at KC -3.0, to allow for the public sway -- because the public will have been brainwashed/conditioned to seeing the Rams as lucky if they get to the Super Bowl somehow.
All that to say, getting back to this particular game…
The Patriots really needed this game. It could’ve turned the season. Yet, the Rams came out and humiliated the Patriots from the first play of the game. We don’t have to debate Cam v. Brady v. Stidham here…the Rams would’ve beaten any of them starting. The Rams are just that good, and it’s not an embarrassment for the Patriots to lose to them. The Rams are really, really good.
The Rams have flaws, but all NFL teams do. No team is perfect/going undefeated. The Chiefs can’t hardly handle the Raiders and Broncos in recent weeks. You do realize the Chiefs are within a whisker of having lost every division game they’ve played this year, but one, right? Look at the game log/schedule and you’ll see. The Rams are good but have their flaws but are now (9-4) headed to a Week 16 showdown at Seattle for the NFC West title.
*Rams side note…a faithful FFM member pointed out that on my Survivor picks in my weekly register that I had been listing that I used the Rams (over NYG) Week 4, and thus I mentioned this past week that I couldn’t use the Rams as a Survivor pick ahead. When in reality, in Week 4, I had taken/used the Ravens (over Haskins), and thus still have the Rams as an option.
So, if we get past Seattle v. Jets this week…we got Rams v. Jets to take in Week 15 baby!!!! I remember mapping that out for as many Jets matchups as possible several weeks ago, but I noted the Rams as unusable last week erroneously. So, for those following/using my Survivor picks – we got the Rams coming Week 15 (not BAL or SF as I mentioned we might have to debate).
The Patriots are now (6-7), and would need to win out to get to (9-7)…and that might be good enough to get to the wild card. However, if they did win out, they’d hold tiebreakers over Miami and Las Vegas and Baltimore…which puts them in a great spot if there is a cluster of (9-7) teams.
FYI…I’ve not used New England in Survivor pool yet this season either. You know who they play Week 17?
We’re set up to use…
SEATTLE over Jets Week 14
RAMS over Jets Week 15
Week 16 = ?
PATRIOTS over Jets Week 17
Week 16? Jets play the Browns…I haven’t used the Browns yet either.
First things first, Seattle has to take down NYJ this week.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- As I watched this game live, I was like…I’m never going to hear the end of this from some people, I’m going to get a bunch of ‘see, you were wrong about Cam Akers (29-171-0, 2-23-0/3)’ the rest of the week.
I also got emails Thursday night on from people who picked up Akers as a flyer grab during the week in redraft, just to see…and didn’t start him for this game, and now they’re sullen, lamenting. Hey, there’s a reason why he was unclaimed in your league going into this week – no one was ready to believe, no one saw/had confidence that this was coming. Be happy you grabbed him and have him as an option for next week.
So, what do you want to hear here?
If I go anti-Akers…you won’t be having it. I’ll sound like a loon. I know this because the emails I’m getting already have Akers enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Why? Because people SAW it with their own two eyes on a solo night game…and much of it happened early in the game, so people really SAW it before fading off on this dull 2nd-half. There is nothing more powerful than a rookie having a 100+ yard anything game on a solo night game.
Akers will be 100% started next week in every FF league, guaranteed. And he should be…facing the Jets Week 15 on top of this event. If he were facing the top run defenses Week 15…wouldn’t matter – this game result was seen with human eyes, so it’s now a fact in our subconscious – Akers is the greatest. He’s going to be started everywhere by everybody until further notice.
I believe Akers is a ‘C’ grade NFL talent at best. But talent assessments don’t matter anymore…coaches preference is what rules RB projections. However that it is an RB gets to the juicy touches…that’s all that matters. Debating Akers v. Darrell Henderson is a fun aside, but talent arguments don’t matter. No different than Carson v. Penny from prior years.
Akers is in prime position to be the lead guy for the Rams now – the Rams/Sean McVay has given us hints at it all along, since he was drafted. It’s come to fruition now.
However, it won’t be long before you don’t care as much about Akers. Ty Johnson rushed for 100+ yards this past week…doesn’t matter. Damien Harris rushed for 100 yards on MNF vs. KC Week 4 in his real NFL debut game and everyone went after him off waivers like crazy. He’s run for a couple of 100+ yard games this year. He’ll be on benches and waivers mostly for Week 15. Old news.
The new/fresh news is Cam Akers…so it shall be. For a while.
My take on Akers’ performance, as an art critic of such things? Not that impressed.
What has my attention…29 carries in a game. That is meaningful. That’s ‘message sent’. I’ll come back to that. But looking at Akers actual tape…
I saw a guy running through great holes early in the game because the defense was playing back in prep for a quick passing game and weren’t totally worried about/focused on Akers – and the Rams came out and slammed it down their throat running it. The first two series Akers rushed 9 times for 99 yards with three+ 10+ yard runs. The Patriots then adjusted and for the next three quarters went back to normal for Akers this year – 20 carries for 72 yards…or 3.6 yards per carry, which is more the pace he’s done this year.
So, am I supposed to chase the Akers from the first two series/one quarter/10 offensive points…the 10+ yards per carry version from this game…
OR
Is he more the guy from the next eight series/three quarters/just seven offensive points…the 3.6 yards per carry guy from this game (a pace which is his 2020 norm)?
You saw the 1st-quarter Akers, and it’s impressed into your mind – you wish you started him, you wish you claimed him, you wish you Dynasty Rookie Drafted the guy you saw for one great quarter. Oh, if you only had Cam Akers all your RB issues would be solved.
I saw the guy from the final three quarters…the more quarters of sample size, being the same guy he’s been all year.
I’m not saying he won’t be a fantasy gem next week or the ROS or 2021. I’m just saying – I don’t see a real ‘it’ factor here, and I’ve got a good track record on scouting or de-bunking RBs on what I see (visually/statistically). A couple years ago, Kerryon Johnson was going to take over the world too with his 100+ yard rushing explosion on the Patriots. David Montgomery was set to rule the world after a 27 carry, 135-yard rushing game vs. the Chargers in 2019. Kerryon and Montgomery…guys the mainstream was absolutely sure would be great, but time passed…and no one cares as much now.
I want to see some star power talent with my ‘big game’ and ‘big prospect’ name – and I just don’t see it here with Akers. Never have going back to his Florida State years. Darrell Henderson’s 20 carries for 117 yards and a TD in Week 3…much more impressive, much more ‘it’ factor…and it’s long been forgotten.
All that to say, I’ll get on board the Akers express now.
171 yards rushing…nice. But he got 29 carries…who wouldn’t rush for 100+ yards with that number of carries? There have been 20 RB performances where the RB took 25 or more carries in a game…and 14 of the 20 times it resulted in 100+ yards rushing games (70%). It’s not the yards that has my attention…it’s the carries.
McVay had been hinting at Akers as a lead, but then didn’t really do it several weeks ago. Through Week 12, Akers had not played more than 33% of the snaps in a game and seemed stuck in an RBBC group. Last week/Week 13, Akers played 63% of the snaps…and we started to wonder, but it also could’ve been a blip. 29 carries here…OK, I got the message. 79% of the snaps this game…yes, sir. I understand, Mr. McVay.
Talent + Touches + the coach’s desire = the elite fantasy RBs
Touches + the coach’s desire = I’ll take it for FF and not going to whine about it. I’m not going to chase fairy tales. Gimme James Conner, David Montgomery, James Robinson, Chris Carson, and Cam Akers…and you can have Jaylen Samuels, Ryan Nall, Rashaad Penny, Darrell Henderson.
Cam Akers is beloved by his coach on a good offense – I don’t need to worry about his low yards per carry, or underperformance, or lack of ‘wow’. I’ll take coach’s loyalty…to get to the 20+ carries in games, to get to the Fantasy gold.
I love Cam Akers now. Even though he’s the third-best RB on his own team. Does not matter.
What good is it if Jonathan Taylor and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are top talents or in good places, but their coach isn’t enslaved to them in the offense? Worst case their talents will be checkmated, in output, by a lesser-talented Akers or D’Andre Swift’s undying loyalty touch count. Andy Reid loves CEH…he just loves Patrick Mahomes more, as he should.
-- If I were an NFL General Manager and was given the free choice of Cam Akers or Damien Harris (11-50-0. 0-0-0/1)…I take Harris a hundred times out of 100.
If I were a fantasy GM and had to start Akers or Harris next week…I’m starting Akers 101 times out of 100.
Damien Harris has been the better back, on tape and in results all season, compared to Akers – but his coach does not worship him over all things, so we have to take that grain of FF-salt.
Harris got 20+ carries (22) in a game once this year…and rushed for 121 yards against a stout Ravens defense. Ahh, you don’t care. That was so many weeks ago…like four to be exact. Ancient history. And Harris is not a rookie so it’s not all that impressive.
I do have some hope that Harris WILL be the main guy for Belichick in 2021, and I want in on that train…but I would bet more on Akers being the guy in 2021 more than Harris. If Harris is ‘the guy’ in 2021…I want that over Akers. I think Akers will peter out into another RB2 who has random RB1 and RB3 weeks as we go into the future. Harris is showing me consistent RB1 skills upside.
Other Patriots RB notes…
Sony Michel (7-22-0) is working as a kind of a relief back, backup to Harris…and the last two weeks have given him opportunity for touches for Michel because both games were blowouts the Patriots were involved in.
James White (3-16-0, 1-2-0/2) has died since Michel has returned to action…for whatever that’s worth. Could be coincidence or not…again, ‘the blowouts’.
Harris taking lead touches is the constant for the NE backfield in all these blowouts the past two weeks.
-- Is Jared Stidham (5-7 for 27 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) taking over for Cam Newton (9-16 for 119 yards, 0 TD/1 INT)?
Probably not until Week 17.
At this moment, Cam is a liability…but with this current Patriots team, they’re built for Cam to run/play safe and work good defense to win. New England can run the table and get a playoff spot, so Belichick will go with Cam at Miami Week 15.
If the Pats lose Week 15, and are out of the playoffs, Bill will still do his ex-Pat (Brian Flores/MIA) a favor and run Cam out there Week 16 vs. BUF to try and knock off the Bills to help Miami try and win the division. If the Pats beat Miami Week 15…then Week 16 is huge for NE and they’ll go with Cam for sure against the Bills.
Stidham looks like Jimmy Garoppolo 2.0 every time I watch him work. He’s probably going to be the Pats starter in 2021 Week 1, after we go through the media rumoring the Pats to sign or trade for every QB and then rumors of them drafting every QB available in the draft. In the end, I think Stidham is being groomed to be the next Jimmy G. – sadly, the lost year of training with COVID really set the plan back some in 2020.
-- Robert Woods (5-32-0/8) and Cooper Kupp (5-33-1/5) had down FF games, and that’s a testament to the Patriots pass defense, more specifically corners Stephon Gilmore (4 tackles) and J.C. Jackson (2 tackles) playing so well here/this season.
The Patriots CBs are going to crush the Dolphins passing game/Tua Week 15. Not going to be great for the Bills Week 16 either.
-- Rams LB Kenny Young (8 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT TD return) had himself a game. His best game as a pro. He’s still just a rotational guy right now, but he is talented…but seems to be way back in the LB rotation.
LB Troy Reeder (7 tackles, 1 TFL) has gotten more run than Young has with Micah Kizer out, and Reeder was always getting 10 or more tackles in games as a fill-in starter for Kizer…until this game. ‘Just’ 7 tackles this game. Kizer should be back Week 15 and Young and Reeder are reduced.
-- PK Matt Gay (1/1 FG, 3/3 XP) seemed like he would be inactive for this game when the Rams called up/activated a PK a few hours before kickoff. However, whatever the issue was…the practice squad PK was made inactive for the game, ultimately, and Gay kicked without issue.
Week 15 hosting the Jets indoors/in LA is good. Week 16 at Seattle should be fine too. We’ll see what the weather is there on that one…could be 50s and rain, helping stall drives and settling for FGs…maybe.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Higbee
53 = Everett
50 = Akers
07 = D Henderson
06 = M Brown
27 = J White
22 = D Harris
15 = Michel
31 = Keener
23 = Asiasi
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Chiefs 22, Broncos 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I saved this as the last game study/report of the week. Why? What did we learn here that we didn’t already know for fantasy next week/into the future? Nothing, really.
The Chiefs kept driving down into the red zone all game, as you’d expect, but through a comedy of errors kept failing to convert TDs…which is totally unlike their offense – so, they settled for field goals and just put the Broncos to sleep that way.
I mean…Tyreek had that bomb TD catch that was ruled not a catch but was a catch on replay…but no one on the Chiefs challenged it – there was one real TD lost. Side note – I saw 3-4 instances of teams not challenging something they should have Week 13. It made me wonder…these teams make like 10 gazillion dollars a year and have so many coaches, etc., on staff they can’t hardly fit in a team photo. Why aren’t they spending money for someone or multiple people to just focus on reviewable plays in-game? If they do…their system ain’t working real well.
So, KC lost a Tyreek bomb TD because they didn’t challenge it. Later, they lost another Tyreek bomb TD reversed due to a holding call. Harrison Butker kicked five FGs for the game…he outscored Tyreek. It was just ‘that kind of game’ for the Chiefs. Denver plays them tough. KC sleepwalks through games because they are so much better than everyone. This was a bad KC output game on offense…unlikely to be seen again like this. No one believes ‘something has happened with the Chiefs! Time to sell everything off’.
KC won in dull fashion, closer than it should’ve been, but they were clearly the superior team and they snuck by on a Sunday night…and we all moved on with our lives.
KC moves to (11-1) and got an extra ‘win’ when the Steelers lost to Washington to drop to (11-1), tied with KC. The Chiefs earning a #1 seed is destined at this point.
Denver’s Drew Lock nightmare continues…they fall to (4-8), probably on their way to 5 wins tops. They have been decimated by injury once again, and Drew Lock is killing them. I’m not sure they fully realize/admit that yet.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Here’s something we did learn from this game… Le’Veon Bell (11-40-0, 2-15-0/3) was given a spot start for the ill (non-COVID) Clyde Edwards-Helaire…and, as I’ve been harping on, Le’Veon doesn’t have any ‘it’ left. The juice seems to be all squeezed out of this orange.
Bell got the full start and looked like every random ‘who cares’ back in the NFL. He has virtually no FF-redraft value remaining. Darrell Williams (6-38-0, 1-5-0/2) looks exponentially better and will split with Bell if CEH is down – and in NFL situations, Williams would be more trusted in key spots if it really came down to it.
-- Bell would be the 4th-most talented RB on the Broncos current roster. Phillip Lindsay (14-26-0) might be the most talented, but his career is swirling down the drain miscast as a pure runner of the ball in the interior – he needs to be the league's elite 3rd-down/C.O.P./pass game back – the new James White or J.D. McKissic.
Shocker, Pat Shurmur doesn’t see it.
Between disappointing results and lack of PPR and constant injury…why even keep Lindsay rostered in redraft right now? I guess waiting for a Gordon injury is all.
-- I’d be selling Tim Patrick (4-44-2/4) stock this week. Sweet 2 TD games but as long as he is stuck with Drew Lock, he’s never going to find consistency. He’s just a Flex hopeful at this stage in good matchups…and he really doesn’t have any sweet matchups the next 3 games. He’s talented but Lock-dependent is not good for FF scoring.
-- Speaking of Drew Lock (15-28 for 151 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs)…
Another less than 55% Comp. Pct. event.
Another INT game…seven straight games with at least one INT – 13 INTs in his last 7 games. When does anyone step in and throw in the towel?
Another loss.
He’s barely getting pressured. Teams just let him/beg him to throw (it to them) and he does.
It’s not even worth mentioning anymore, it's so far gone.
-- Jerry Jeudy (1-5-0/4) has one catch for 4 yards on 6 targets total his last two games.
Denver QBs have a 48.5 QB rating throwing in his direction. Nice. Great 1st-round pick. Real difference maker. He’s OK…but Lock-dependent is no way to go through FF-life.
Jeudy and Mecole Hardman (1-15-0/3) should get together and discuss how great they are among today’s WRs.
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = Le’Veon
31 = Darr Williams
61 = Tyreek
48 = Watkins
37 = Dem Rob
21 = Mecole
35 = Gordon
26 = Lindsay
04 = R Freeman
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College Football Metrics (CFM) 2021 subscriptions will be available for early sign up late December 2020/early January 2021.
It’s going to be a scouting NFL Draft season like no other – some top prospects opting out of their final college season, a unique schedule for CFB teams to have played, a different type of bowl season…a whole new backdrop to scout against. An experienced, talented scouting eye is going to rule. I have 10+ years of successful CFM scouting and analytics to lean on – I’m ready for the challenge.
I know the mainstream football analysis is going to butcher this year’s class even worse than normal – because they are going to blindly favor big school prospects more than ever, because those schools will have the only names they are truly familiar with, and it’s just the ‘name’ they are familiar with not their ‘game’. They’ll hive mind run with whatever names the collective seems to be buzzing about – because they don’t put in the work, they just echo things they’ve heard. I’m not saying that to be a jerk – it’s the open window of opportunity (their failure) that I was able to build my career/business upon.
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Go to our College Football Metrics or Fantasy Football Metrics subscription pages for more information. The new season sign up information will begin posting in the second half of December 2020.
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- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Lions 34, Bears 30
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
In the 1st-half of this game, everything made sense. The sad Lions were losing to the more desperate/still in the playoff hunt Bears 23-13 at halftime. The Bears didn’t look ‘great’ or anything, but 23 points scored in a half is nice for the Bears’ offense and somewhat expected versus a suspect Lions defense.
In the 2nd-half, I felt like had Matt Patricia been there…the Lions would’ve just rolled over and died. But, with Patricia fired the week prior, a collegiate spirit rose up/was there all game and the Lions were playing ‘free’ and ‘excited’…and they climbed back into the game.
When the Lions cut the Bears’ lead to 30-27 with 2:18 left, all Chicago needed to do was get a little drive going to run the clock out and win. On 3rd & 4, inside their own 20, Mitch Trubisky dropped back to pass and was stripped of the ball…turnover, Lions set up in great position – and they scored a quick TD to take a 34-30 lead with 1:37 remaining. Still time for the Bears.
Chicago drove right down the field and got to the Lions 20 for a 4th & 1 play with 0:16 left. The Bears chose to run it…David Montgomery stuffed…ballgame.
The mood of the Bears. The vibe…was much like the Matt Patricia Lions – not much spark or confidence, etc. This may be the game that was the final tipping point for Matt Nagy and the GM to get swept away in a few weeks. A loss to the Lions in a must-win spot, despite a 10-point lead at one point in the 4th-quarter.
With the win, the Lions are now (5-7) and just a game back of the last wild card spot. (8-8) will be the final wild card…the Lions at least have some playoff life. They also have some wins that could matter in tiebreakers – over Arizona (6-6) and Washington (5-7). However, the schedule ahead is not set up well for a miracle finish – GB, at TEN, TB, MIN. Detroit likely finishes at their current 5 wins…maybe sneaks a 6th win in there.
The Bears fall to (5-7) and are in danger of finishing in last place in the division. They have a little better path ahead to get to (8-8). They face HOU, at MIN, at JAX, GB the final four games. If they beat Houston this week to get to (6-7), they are likely facing (6-7) Minnesota for both of their playoff lives. The Bears would project to lose that contest, ultimately wind up (7-9) and let the firings begin.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I have a few ‘interesting’ (you’ll see) tidbits from this game, but my main thing I want to say (again): Darnell Mooney (4-43-0/6) has the makings of a superstar…I can see it.
I can see ‘it’.
I did earlier this season. I know ‘it’ when I see ‘it’ – and I see ‘it’ here.
Mooney might be the better Diontae Johnson – same feet off the snap, faster long speed, better hands (especially the last 2 weeks).
Mooney is starting to move and work with the similarities/confidence of Justin Jefferson. Yeah, that’s right. I said ‘it’.
Now, before you get too excited…
…but you should get excited…
But before getting too far out there…
Mooney is not working with ‘Quick Draw McDraw’ Big Ben throwing him 7,000 targets a game like Diontae is.
Mooney does not have Kirk Cousins either, nor can he work in the luxury of a home dome to maximize his speed demon ways.
Mooney plays in sloggy Chicago/Soldier’s Filed with low-end QB play and a terrible offensive mind for a head coach – in a world of WRs running jet sweeps for 5+ yards every time they do it…the 4.38 fleet feet of Mooney has run the ball ONCE this season. How does the Bears coaching staff not see NFL games and want to copy success and realize they have the perfect guy to try it with? You don’t need to answer…I know the answer.
It’s not going to be easy to overcome the obstacles and become a receiving/FF star playing for Chicago, as far as any of us can see into the near future. He might…he might not. What if the Bears get worse at head coach and QB next year?
All I know is this – Mooney is looking like, moving like an FF-future star. When we start to see the payoff is anyone’s guess.
Such a great opportunity this week vs. Houston. Not sure he will be allowed to take advantage of ‘it’.
-- Ok, you ready for this one? This is a first…
I thought this was the best game I’ve seen from David Montgomery (17-72-2, 4-39-0/4) in his career. He was moving better than I remember ever seeing him before – the best spring in his step, displaying some of that notorious ‘bounciness’.
He’s still overrated and shouldn’t be a full NFL lead, but DM looks fresh, confident, and effective. Useful for fantasy purposes.
In fact, Montgomery may be a guy that I target for 2021. The price is lower. The new car smell has worn off. If the new coach/GM doesn’t add any RBs of note…I’m willing to run with a mediocre/bad RB if they’re going to get all the work. I drafted falling (due to injury Week 1) Montgomery this preseason in redrafts on that same premise.
What’s the point of FF-owning a physical talent like Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, Devin Singletary (the better version of Montgomery), or a Darrell Henderson…if they’re in an RBBC, and/or have the QB rushing for all the TDs, and/or don’t see the pass game work?
You’re better off with Wayne Gallman of the moment…or David Montgomery being worshipped by their coaches or forced all the touches just because. Myles Gaskin is my new hero.
-- OK, how about this… (and it was a faithful FFMer who told me to go back and look at what’s developing)
Cole Kmet (5-37-1/7) is on the TE1 viability list for Weeks 14, and 15, and 16.
Why?
Weeks 1-9, Kmet was a rotational TE behind Jimmy Graham getting 30-40% snaps in a game and lucky to see 1-2 targets (8 targets his first 9 games of 2020).
Week 10, Kmet started playing 70% of the snaps and becoming ‘the starter’. Targets of 3 and 3 and then 7 targets (this game) in his three games ‘starting’.
I don’t think Kmet is anything special, but he’s not ‘bad’. Like with RBs…an FF tight end’s best quality is ‘playing time’ and ‘targets’ (and ‘QB they’re playing with’). Kmet is not much different a species than T.J. Hockenson (7-84-0/9) – big, bulky, prototype TEs who have average speed but a big frame and solid enough hands…and they come with ‘draft stock, so coaches are going to force them into the action…they’re going to get action just by being on the field.
Robert Tonyan is a better version of this because of the QB he plays with, and he’s a better athlete than most TEs (the former college WR). Hockenson works with a solid-ish Stafford/good playing conditions (dome) for the passing game (hell, TJH is the #4 PPR PPG TE in fantasy this year…by attrition).
Kmet has a bad field in December and weaker QB play. However, the field conditions can work in his favor a bit – he’s a short, simple throw in a stunted offense. We saw some signs of that this week, in good passing conditions. There’s a nice, simple pitch-and-catch with Trubisky-Kmet developing.
Hard to make a call for a rise to TE1 out of nowhere, but he’s playing the snaps to help…and HOU-MIN-JAX the next 3 weeks. It’s something to consider among the Dissly-Sample-Akins crowd.
-- Case in point on ‘it’s better for an FF RB to be mildly talented but be worshipped by his coach than to be a Combine delight prospect with a ton of talent’ – Adrian Peterson (16-57-2, 0-0-0/1).
You would have been wise to have AP over Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley for Weeks 12-13 of 2020 season.
D’Andre Swift is still unknown to comeback Week 14. It could be another AP week again this week.
-- May I get something off my chest? May I be salty about it? Many of you will appreciate this next statement.
Thanks for nothing, Marvin Jones (8-116-1/12)…you stupid Son of a B.
Oh, how clever it was by me to go heavy RB in preseason redrafts and just fade WRs because you could get undervalued guys like Marvin Jones and laugh all the way to the FF title.
By Week 3-4-5, I had to cut Marvin everywhere…he sucked. The Lions sucked. He was doing nothing. Good riddance.
Since Week 8, he’s the #12 WR in PPR PPG in fantasy (4 or more games played).
He has 5 TDs in his past 6 games and 6.5 catches per game the past 4 weeks.
…and I own him nowhere during all this…during all what I was looking for to start the 2020 season.
Hey, at least my Best Ball teams are prospering.
Hey, at least I don’t look like a full-on stupid idiot for promoting him for 2020. In raw PPR points, he’s #30 among all WRs this season. I just got the order of events wrong…or God hates me.
-- My final item, my aggravation with Mitch Trubisky (26-34 for 267 yards, 1 TD/0 INT)…
He could’ve been so much better.
Half the blame on Matt Nagy. Half the blame on mitch…he doesn’t have the heart for this. He has all the tools…he’s a ‘five tool’ QB prospect. He just doesn’t have the 6th tool (so far) -- heart, courage, aggression.
Every time Trubisky could be running his way out of trouble, or for offense, and then keeping defense’s honest with his feet…he won’t take off and run. He’s scared. He should be the elite version of Taysom Hill…but Taysom has guts and heart that Trubisky doesn’t have.
Trubisky is never going to succeed until he has a heart transplant. His career could only be saved by one head coach, maybe two getting his head tweaked – Sean McDermott or Matt Rhule. Trubisky as the backup to Josh Allen is genius if the Bills can pull it off. I mean, Matt Barkley is not going to do anything for anyone.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Mooney
51 = ARob
39 = A Miller
28 = Wims
52 = DMontg
17 = CPatt
64 = Marvin Jones
40 = Sanu
33 = Amendola
32 = AP
30 = Kerryon
06 = Jon Williams
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Browns 41, Titans 35
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
What happened here?
Where to begin?
How did this get to 38-7 at the half, and turn into a one-score win with TEN an onside kick away from possibly the greatest comeback in NFL history by the end?
The best way I can explain it is…this was two evenly matched teams, in a general sense. One of them caught breaks early and then it rolled downhill on the opponent from there. Then the exact opposite of that happened in the 2nd-half. I could go over all the fluky plays to allow the things that happened to happen – like the Browns stopping Derrick Henry on a 4th & 1 early in the game on a bad spot by the refs…fumbles at the wrong time/wrong place on the field, bad penalties, bad defensive gambles, great play by one of the QBs in one half, then flipped to the other QB the 2nd-half.
I guess the best way to put it is…
The Browns won the first 30 minutes, 38-7. Impressive. Shocking.
The Titans won the next 30 minutes, 28-3. Impressive. Forgotten in the wake of losing.
Should I be impressed Cleveland took a 31-point 1st-half lead? Or should I be focused on questioning how they could get thumped by 25-points in the 2nd-half of said lead? Which Browns half of performance should I focus on? Same question for the Titans?
I’m not sure there is a satisfying answer. Just another week in the NFL…in all its glory.
This was a massive win for the Browns…they now have wins over Indy and Tennessee when it comes down to any tiebreakers for the wild card…but the Browns are now at (9-3) might be ahead of them without the need for the tiebreaker.
We’ll learn everything we need to know about the Browns this week – hosting fading Baltimore. If the Browns go out and beat up the Ravens Week 14, then I’m a believer and Kevin Stefanski gets the Coach of the Year award over Bill Belichick. If the Ravens drop kick them on national TV/MNF…all the doubts on the Browns come rushing back in and the 1st-half of this particular game is long forgotten.
If the Steelers lose to the Bills on Sunday Week 14…and then the Browns go out and crush Baltimore to draw within a game of the division – it will be stunning and Week 17 vs. PIT could be for the division. If they go out, with their big opportunity, and get smacked around by the Ravens the Browns are mortal and will finish (10-6) and a nice wild card berth.
Tennessee falls to (8-4), stuck in a tie with the Colts for 1st-place in the AFC South. It will be a fight to the finish for the Titans because you never know what version of the team is showing up one week to the next. They should finish with 10-11 wins and hold a tiebreaker over Indy for the South if it’s a battle of 10-win teams in the end. Loser to the wild card.
It’s hard to read a lot into this game for FF, because how many times will these two teams be in a game like this…one of them down/up 31 in the 1st-half…a frenetic comeback 2nd-half…76 points scored?
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Baker Mayfield (25-33 for 334 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) may be ‘happening’…I was just off by a year.
11 TDs/1 INT his last six games, but an odd pattern of TDs in games in that span. TD counts in games in that span (in order starting Week 7): 5-0-0-0-2-4.
The 4 and 5 TDs in a game is what I wanted from him…last year. But then you see the three 0 TD games and are like, what the…? But consider two of those zeros were in colder, unusually windy/high wind gust games.
If I look at Baker’s season and ignore his two wind gust games…he has 21 TD passes in his 10 other games. That’s 2.1 TD passes per game. Umm, that’s high-end action in the NFL. If the two wind gusts games were indoors/normal, maybe Baker has 25+ TD passes this year-to-date (based on his 2.1 per game pace in 2020)? That would be good for 9th best in the NFL right now…a TD away from the top 6.
My scouting…my belief on Baker…has always been – one of the best passers, one of the best vision/read the coverage throwers I’ve ever scouted. I think it’s starting to happen. I think Baker is becoming a top 15 QB…trying to be a top 10. Maybe he already is on talent.
…and if he is, then we all generally ‘like’/fear betting against teams that have QBs that give a team hope. Is that why the Browns are (9-3). Because Baker can win games as needed when the run game isn’t dominating? It’s certainly not the defense winning these games. Nick Chubb missed about a third/half the season...it’s not all Chubb. Everything got better when OBJ went out, as I proclaimed it would for two years. It’s not Rashard Higgins or Austin Hooper or the kicker.
It has to be Baker is arriving.
The 2020 pattern seems to be…beat up the lesser teams and fall to the good ones, in general for Baker this season. Beating the Ravens Week 14 is a big litmus test on whether Baker has (re)arrived or not.
Colin Cowherd. I respect you, even though I don’t hardly watch your show anymore. Can I ask you and the entire mainstream football scouting community…who ya got now – Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold? You all said Darnold in unison years ago. How about now? Ready to admit your error?
Serious question…
Is Baker Mayfield better to have for your NFL team now/into the future…or Lamar Jackson? Imagine asking that this time last season. What if the Browns beat the Ravens this week and Baker looks good, and Lamar looks as bad as Baker did last year doing it?
Kevin Stefanski for Coach of the Year…definitely in the running for the award, if not the favorite. We all agree on that.
How about if Baker wins this week – Baker for MVP, anyone? I mean like a top 5-10 vote, not #1. But seriously…if Stefanski gets an award for doing the impossible – what does Baker deserve for the same? Because he IS the main reason for this.
FYI, Baker Mayfield is 21-20-0 as a Browns starter…not including his debut win in a comeback relief over the Jets his rookie season. Memba that? Baker Mayfield has taken the Browns to a winning record over his three years. Who wants to trade him away now?
For Fantasy…I think we need to get re-excited, no? Baker wasn’t the issue in 2019, apparently. 2021 without OBJ and Landry…Baker could go to new heights.
-- Ryan Tannehill (29-45 for 389 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) gets lost in all this. One of the other great reclamation stories of the past few years. Any credit for him leading this comeback? Look at those numbers.
Tannehill is 6th in the NFL in TD passes this season.
The #9 QB in 4pts pass TD fantasy PPG among QBs. #8 in 6pts per pass TD.
-- Corey Davis (11-182-1/12) is on fire for sure. But his numbers are coming in favorable matchups. This game result was awesome…but last week he caught a quiet/safe 3 passes for 70 yards.
It’s been a redemption year for sure, but it’s also been kind of erratic…kind of hiding with everyone focused on A.J. Brown in coverage. I haven’t seen any ‘wow’ activity…he’s just solid in a top 10 efficient pass game/QB.
A.J. Brown provides ‘wow’. Davis provides…’nice’/solid.
Very good schedule ahead to keep Davis rolling, however.
-- To my Corey Davis point…Rashard Higgins (6-95-1/9) rolled numbers too, but no ticker tape parade has been thrown for him.
Corey Davis has 4 TDs this season.
Higgins has 3 TDs only really playing starting Week 5, and not starting until recently.
If Tannehill is sneaky efficient causing the #2 WR to have big games…then can sneaky efficient Baker cause Higgins to have more big games ahead?
The problem is the schedule is awful the next two weeks for that to happen for Higgins…whereas Davis has an amazing schedule. But don’t write off Higgins yet…but do write him off against the Ravens, that’s a bad matchup probably.
-- Anthony Firkser (5-51-0/7) had a nice stat line but it looked really ‘nothing’ on tape. Most of it came very late, with Cleveland dropping deep in prevent and Tannehill just dumping simple passes short to Firkser. Most all his targets came in the two final drives…for the first 62-69 points of this game, you didn’t even know Firkser was playing hardly.
Snap Counts of Interest:
38 = Swaim
32 = Pruitt
30 = Firkser
36 = Chubb
35 = Hunt
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- R.C. Fischer
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2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 13 Game Analysis: Saints 21, Falcons 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Saints were definitely the better team here, but it was a lot closer than the last time these two met…and the Falcons had a shot to win it late but blew it.
Everything to know about this game happened with just under 2 minutes left…
Falcons with the ball, down 21-16, 2nd & 2 from the Saints 13-yard line at the two-minute warning. Also, note that Todd Gurley missed last week’s game and was limited this week with a knee injury…and he didn’t start this game or play much until they got near the red zone. The work that he did do was pretty sad to that point – Gurley looks like he’s operating at 50% capacity favoring/worried about his knee. Anyone watching could see there was a problem.
Got all that? Atlanta can win this game converting 2nd & 2 and going on to score a TD. They’re back in the playoff picture if they can get this 1st-down/then TD from 13 yards away.
2nd & 2…run with Gurley, no yards. Everyone was like…why run Gurley there knowing the issues?
3rd & 2…run with Gurley, he tries to kick it outside…which…’the knee’…he ends up taking 3rd & 2 and losing 7 yards to create 4th & 9 from the 20-yard line. The Falcons don’t convert, turn it over on downs…ball game.
NFL coaches are inexplicable. Gregg Williams’ play call/coverage at the end of the Jets-Raiders fiasco might have not even been in the top five of stupidest things coaches did just this week. These back-to-back rushing attempts with wounded Gurley…dumber than the Gregg Williams stunt.
The Saints survive and go to (10-2), holding the lead for the #1 seed over (9-3) Green Bay. Week 15 vs. KC looms. (13-3) is their likely finish but (12-4) is as likely, in which case they might hand the #1 seed to GB – and teams having to go to Lambeau field in January vs. to the dome in New Orleans…it changes everything, more for the Saints than any other NFC team.
The Falcons find a way to lose, again, and fall to (4-8). Five wins by the end is the best they can hope for…they have at LAC this week, and then TB-KC-TB to finish.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The aforementioned Todd Gurley (8-16-0, 1-4-0/1)…seriously, it doesn’t look good. Why they insist on pushing him out there in his condition is ridiculous on several fronts…
1) The guy is going to get himself hurt worse trying to run gingerly away from getting hurt. He’s a wounded/hindered gazelle among the herd trying to runaway from the hungry speedy cheetahs.
2) The season is lost. Gurley will be a free agent. Why not see what Ito Smith and Brian Hill (and Qadree Ollison) have to offer? Raheem Morris wants an opportunity to show what he can do in this lost season, but won’t afford others the same?
I think it is very possible Todd Gurley gets shut down for the season now that Atlanta is all but out of it. If not this week, then next – which means the alternative ATL RBs could have meaning ahead…something to consider for Week 14 bye teams looking to sit on a situation that could fall into their laps.
But do you go Ito or Hill?
Brian Hill (5-18-0) started this game, but then played the least number of snaps…two games in-a-row he’s had a golden opportunity and done nothing with it.
Ito Smith (8-36-0, 1-0-0/2), for the second week in-a-row played more snaps/looked better…fresher…more determined. This was the last stand game for ATL for the playoffs, and Ito led the RBs with 24 snaps…Hill 11 snaps. You have to say Ito is the main guy if Gurley goes down and out.
If Gurley is active…Ito and Hill won’t FF-matter/you won’t use them. However, if Gurley is put on IR this week or next…it’s Ito lead and Hill trying to chase into work. Both have everything in the world to play for to show good tape for their future.
Sadly, Week 15…Ito vs. Tampa Bay is a bad matchup if it comes down to it. Week 16 at KC is better.
Qadree Ollison? Raheem Morris doesn’t seem to care.
-- It’s not looking any better for Hayden Hurst (1-9-0/4). He got nicked up Week 10-11 and hasn’t been the same since. Two of his last 3 FF game results have been a disaster. Matt Ryan is dying. His throws to Hurst were useless in this game. You have my blessing to seek other TE relief if needed/desired.
-- Taysom Hill (27-37 for 232 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 14-83-0) is likely making his final start at QB Week 14. Just a note on something to consider with him…
Once Brees is back, if Taysom reverts to TE designation (as he should, it’s ridiculous leagues that can’t wait to designate him a QB but then won’t acknowledge him playing TE otherwise) – he’s not a bad hold/use as one of your TEs.
He’s a TE1 potential playing his limited snaps as it is at TE -- but he may see more snaps at QB, when Brees is back, while playing his TE, subbing in for Brees more because Taysom is so integrated now at QB…no longer just a gimmick. Taysom could get a lot of TE work between the 20s and then a lot of QB work in the red zone…with the FF-bonus that in-game Brees gets hurt and Taysom drops back into QB while starting as your FF TE.
-- Three starts for Taysom at QB, so far…
Alvin Kamara (15-88-1, 2-9-0/3) has three catches for 7 yards total in those three games. What happens to AK’s value if Taysom is the Saints starting QB in 2021?
-- Where the H did ATL DE Steven Means (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks) come from? He is a very long-armed, relentless pass rusher off the edge. A menace that was unblockable half this game…but he was rotating in and out all game. If I were the Falcons, I would never take him off the field…he IS their pass rush now.
His last three games…he’s averaging 4.3 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 0.67 forced fumbles per game.
2012 = 5th-round draft pick out of Buffalo by Tampa Bay
2013 = Tampa Bay backup/warm body
2014 = Cut by TB, signed by BAL
2015 = BAL, to IR, cut…signed by HOU…signed away by PHI
2016 = PHI
2017 = PHI signed to a 1-year extension
2018 = Cut by PHI, signed by ATL
2019 = ATL puts on IR
From 2013-2019, six teams played for and 36 game appearances over 7 years with just 3.0 sacks/27 tackles total. Means has as many sacks the last two games as he had the prior 7.5 years.
He was a pretty good pass rusher in college. He looks really good on this week’s tape. We’ll see if he keeps it up.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
24 = Ito
22 = Gurley
11 = Hill
42 = Hurts
24 = Stocker
48 = AK
32 = Latavius
42 = Josh Hill
28 = J Cook
27 = Trautman
