- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Cardinals 37, Rams 20
There’s not a lot anyone can say about this game. There was no nuisance to it. The Arizona Cardinals are a better football team than the Los Angeles Rams right now. Not by a lot. The Rams could totally beat the Cardinals in their next match up. But, in general, Arizona has the better team right now. The better quarterback and the better defense.
The media absolutely does not think that. They are just now waking up to the Arizona defense about two months too late. They still think the Rams are the best defense in football because the only defensive player any of them are aware of is Aaron Donald. Sometimes they reference Jalen Ramsey as a great shutdown corner, but they haven’t noticed that he’s not really playing CB this year he’s more of a linebacker. And, of course, they’re so bought and paid for on the Matt Stafford story they can’t handle the fact that Kyler Murray is just better than him…and that once again Matt Stafford just Matt Stafforded up another game. Stafford is always good but just when he’s about to grab that brass ring he’ll fall short. It’s been the story of his entire career. He looks really good playing for Los Angeles this season, but he got totally worked by the great Arizona defense at this game.
The Rams and the Cardinals are the two best teams in the NFC West. It’s just that Arizona is better, that’s all. It shouldn’t need any further explanation. I suspect Arizona will win the division but depending on injuries and the schedule the Rams are gonna be right there as well.
To me, what happened here was a statement about the toughness of the Rams football team…it’s not very tough, again. It’s pretty talented, though. But anytime opposition comes in and punches them in the face they tend to cower in the corner until the beating is over. And that’s what happened in this game. The Rams started out pretty toe to toe but Arizona kept answering every punch by the Rams with a harder punch of their own, and then the Rams stopped punching. They just looked defeated as Arizona kept up a flurry of punches until they knew the Rams were no threat to them to come back. Second half whenever the Rams were trying to get back going, Arizona would just shut it down…even missing their top CB Byron Murphy the whole 2nd-half.
The Cardinals are undefeated, but I’m not sure I would call them the best team in football yet. And it wouldn’t surprise me that they have a letdown in Week 5 confused by the wrinkle of Trey Lance. But it also wouldn’t shock me if they terrorized Trey Lance into multiple turnovers and sent his career back a year in confidence. If they do that, then maybe Arizona really is the best team in football.
Fantasy Player Notes…
— There’s not much to talk about with these two quarterbacks from this game. Kyler Murray (24-32 for 268 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT), 6-39-0) is the better all-around quarterback…and is only getting better with each passing month of NFL play.
Matt Stafford (26-41 for 280 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is a really good quarterback as well, but the Arizona defense was too much for him. Stafford is going to be fine in most matchups, but he blinked in this one.
— I’m tired of seeing Chase Edmonds (12-120-0, 4-19-0/5) fall short of the goal line and stealing easy TDs to James Conner (18-50-2). I’m also tired of mentioning it or writing about it or complaining about it. It is what it is. It happened with Kenyan Drake last year, and now it’s happening with James Conner. It’s a smart way to go because Conner is better suited to get 1-yard then the slender, wiry Edmonds.
Edmonds is fine otherwise for PPR. He’s a nice solid RB2 with hopes that a little flurry of TDs comes his way. Most likely it won’t happen, and the Edmonds will wind up with around 3-4 rushing TDs this year. I’m hoping he starts to add receiving TDs to supplement that. But Conner is the better one-yard run and Kyler Murray tends to take a lot of goal line runs too, and they like to get Rondale Moore touches near the goal line as a runner. It’s just not Chase Edmonds best role (short yardage), so we should probably stop complaining about it. It is what it is.
— Speaking of the Arizona wide receivers…
What’s wrong with DeAndre Hopkins (4-67-0/7)? He looks fine. He is still great. It’s just Kyler Murray is such an exceptional quarterback right now, and has so many options to explore and mismatches to go after… But he’s no longer leaning on Hopkins for every throw. He doesn’t have to in 2021. Kyler’s got plenty of stuff to choose from and he doesn’t seem to lean on one option like most elite QBs tend to do. Hopkins is still his main man but not to the detriment of everyone else getting targeting.
AJ Green is consistently staying relevant as an option for Kyler. Green doesn’t look very athletic. However, when Kyler dials him up a throw, even though he’s covered, Green tends to shield away his defender and ends up making a key clutch catch. It’s definitely not the AJ Green of old but he’s a reliable source for Kyler and it doesn’t seem to be falling away, but it’s not going to be WR1 work either. More WR3 off and on.
Christian Kirk (1-5-0/1) returned back to earth this week. He’s going to be one of the most difficult fantasy players to predict from one week to the next because Kyler does not lean on him like he does Hopkins or Green. Kirk is a luxury that Kyler uses and doesn’t use as he sees fit. There’s a little rhyme or reason to Kirk's targeting. Good luck trying to figure it out or use him in any given week.
Rondale Moore (3-28-0/3, 2-9-0) is getting very specific plays/touches because everyone knows how good he is with the ball in his hands. He had two carries in this game in one of them he was lined up as a legit tail back taking a carry…and he looks fantastic. He also gets tunnel screens in specific plays to try to spring him. Rondale‘s role should continue to grow but he’s not Kyler‘s #1 or #2 looks yet. Rondale is not on the field all game (yet) so he’s more of a random WR3 flyer who could have a monster game/moment at any time, but also do very little depending on the game script.
Out of nowhere Maxx Williams (5-66-1/5) seems to be one of the more trusted options for Kyle. It’s not that things are being generated for Williams…it’s more that there are so many options in an Arizona passing game and defenses can’t cover them all but when they do get good coverage or Kyler doesn’t get the matchup he wants there sits Maxx usually sitting wide-open in the middle of the field . And Kyler is making use of it. The old Kyler never even looked at the tight ends. 2021 Kyler is a much savvier quarterback. Perhaps the best vision of the field of any quarterback in the NFL. Kyler doesn’t have a 76.1% completion percentage YTD because he’s lucky.
— On the Rams side of the passing game, it’s still all about Cooper Kupp (5-64-0/13). But we just have to understand, given his low production game here, that the Arizona Cardinals have the best coverage group in the NFL so #1 WRs are not necessarily going to go off against them. Stafford was still getting after it and there were some near miss moments, so I’m not worried about Cupp at all -- it was just an Arizona thing.
Kupp being down is a reason why I think Van Jefferson (6-90-1/6) had a decent game here. Arizona so takes away the top guys that Stafford had to smartly make use of some of the alternative matchups. Jefferson is really good. He’s going to be the new Robert Woods in the near future. I just don’t think we’re there yet. But there will come a day Jefferson is a steady PPR WR2. It’s just a little too crowded today and he’s not a top look he’s just a good look for Stafford right now.
Robert Woods (4-48-1/6) hasn’t had a very good year so far. He’s the loser of the Matt Stafford sweepstakes because Stafford’s guy is Cooper Kupp. Woods is just a random WR3 with Jefferson nipping at his heels. There’s been a lot of talk about getting Woods the ball more this week, because I’m sure Woods is complaining behind the scenes. Expect Woods to have a good game Week 5 to shut him up for a while.
I’ve got my eye on Tyler Higbee (4-36-0/6) because Stafford does seem to have a pretty good connection with Higbee as an alternative to the wide receivers. And it’s a good time to consider getting Higbee on the cheap because he just had it down game but we saw that coming because Arizona may be the best team covering tight ends in the NFL. Isaiah Simmons is a shutdown coverage linebacker. It’s not Higbee‘s fault. There will be more games than not where Higbee will be able to win his matchup or slip out into coverage undetected, but against Arizona is not one of those games.
— This game for Darrell Henderson (14-89-0, 5-27-0/6) put to rest any of my punchlines about how Sean McVay hates Darrell Henderson.
This was the perfect time, with Henderson banged up, to split carries between Henderson and Michel if McVay was even thinking about a Michel turn or just a nice split. Nothing of the sort happened. In a very important key critical NFC West matchup/battle for 1st place -- they went all in on Henderson. That says a lot about McVay’s mindset on his backfield. I have no interest in Sony Michel (3-11-0) anymore for my fantasy teams outside of the randomness of having any number to RB hoping the #1 RB gets hurt. Samaje Perine is as FF-attractive as Sony Michel as a sit and hold/hope from that perspective. The Sony Michel narrative is officially dead… Until Henderson gets hurt again.
-- I thought DeAndre Hopkins might’ve had a weaker output game here because Jalen Ramsey (5 tackles, 2 PDs, 1 TFL) decided to cover him more, but that was not the case. Jalen Ramsey is still playing mostly linebacker/joker, pretty much roaming around wherever he wants to go. It makes him a very attractive DB for IDP because most people see him as a low output shut down corner. And as I’ve said for a couple of weeks now, and detailed last week, it’s not true in 2021. He is playing all over the place…and not much cover corner.
How good is that Arizona Cardinals defense? You’re starting to become a believer now, aren’t you? This upcoming week with the 49ers will be interesting because Trey Lance could be a very confusing wrinkle that no one has any real tape on…or Lance could be in over his head and serve up several pick sixes. The Cardinals defense is going to be a sweet DFS play/gamble, and an intriguing/scary play for your fantasy team. This defense is just so good that it’s hard to bet against them now. If the 49ers are missing Trent Williams for this game, that’s another feather in the cap of rolling with the Cardinals DST Week 5.
Arguably the best defense of player the Cardinals have his quarterback Byron Murphy, but he got here partway into this game and didn’t really play in the second half. Consider how amazing that is -- the Cardinals were missing their best cover corner and they even more shut down the Rams in the second half in the passing game. That’s how good and deep this Arizona defense is.
Snap Counts of Interest:
65 = Kupp
65 = Woods
46 = Van J
22 = DJax
61 = D Henderson
07 = Michel
75 = Hopkins
67 = AJG
56 = Kirk
33 = R Moore
52 = Edmonds
33 = Conner
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: 49'ers 33, Bears 22
If you think this was some kind of statement game for the 49'ers, you're dead wrong. They weren't that much better than the Bears here and mostly won because Deebo Samuel broke another long play for a near TD. That one play sparked the team to wake up and they finished strong, but before that play they were getting their butts kicked by a pretty bad Chicago team.
The Bears led 13-9 at halftime having outplayed the 49'ers thoroughly. They would increase that lead to 16-9 shortly thereafter, but Deebo's long catch and run got SF back into it making the score 16-15. That event seemed to spark SF into action and they began a scoring fest that the Bears could not keep up with.
The main engine of their offense now is Elijah Mitchell and the running game. I'll discuss Mitchell more below (as I know several people were mad at me over it last week and probably thinking I know nothing after this game), but, in short, it's some incredible blocking by the line that is making this thing go (that and a dying Bears defense).
SF is essentially a .500 team. They are tied for 16th in scoring offense and are a mediocre 22nd on defense (the defense isn't getting better. They just gave up 22 to a terrible Chicago offense). They haven't even played a difficult schedule either with games against the Lions, Eagles, and Seahawks mixed in. They seem to play to their competition's level. They had to stave off a Lions comeback, got lucky to beat the Eagles, did lose to the Seahawks, but then they hung in games against much better teams like the Packers and Cardinals too. Overall, they aren't a bottom 10 team by any stretch, but they aren't a playoff caliber group either.
The Bears definitely are a bottom 5 team though. Their offense is 2nd worst behind only the dumpster fire in Houston, and the defense is currently 20th but getting worse every day. They are 3-5 and will be lucky to get to 5 or 6 wins. It's possible they won't win another game all year looking at the schedule.
Fantasy Notes
--Kyle Shanahan is going to show you...he's going to show all of you! Jimmy Garoppolo (17-28 for 322 0 TD/0 INT, 5-4-2) is a good QB and he was right to start him over Trey Lance all along!
It's weird, Lance is Shanahan's hand-picked guy and yet because the media is saying starting Jimmy is a mistake, now Kyle feels he has to prove everyone wrong by giving more playing time to the guy he wanted to replace…
Strange thing in this game, Kyle called two option read QB keepers near the goal line with Jimmy. I think that could be Kyle trying to get the offense used to running those plays for when he does finally pull the plug on Jimmy. He just can't do it now because he has to show he was right first. I don't know. The guy is an egotistical lunatic.
I would expect Lance to make his debut against the Jaguars if the 49'ers get smacked down by the Cardinals and Rams the next two weeks. If Kyler is out and the 49'ers pull the upset that could delay Lance a few more weeks...
--Ok, Elijah Mitchell (18-137-1). Yes, he had another good game. Yes, he is the lone RB taking carries for SF right now. No, that does not mean he's automatically going to run for 100 yards and a TD every single week. First of all, it's not so much that Mitchell is an amazing unicorn RB. The offensive line is blowing holes open for him, the same as they've blown holes open for every decent runner over the years. It's a function of the offense, and it's working so I get riding it while it's useful. I've been for that.
What I'm warning against though is that the last two games have been against the average to bad run defenses of the Colts and Bears. The Cardinals aren't going to be so kind, and the Rams might not allow SF to run as much if they are down by 20 points. Either way, Mitchell has averaged 5.9 and 7.6 ypc in those two games, and you simply can't count on that continuing, nor can you count on getting a TD every game. Those two factors should happen about every other game or so. What happens when you don't get them? You're left with 17 carries for 67 yards. He doesn't get any catches to prop him up.
I get that you have to play him for the moment and there will be some really nice games, but everyone acting like they've hit the jackpot and lucked into a top 5 RB is likely mistaken. In addition, Jeff Wilson is coming back this week, and while he's not some amazing back, it's entirely possible that Kyle starts rotating these guys like he's done so much the past 3 years. It's definitely something to think about.
I'm not trying to rain on any parades, and I'm not saying to trade Mitchell away (although personally I would consider it). I just want people to think rationally about what they've got here and how the situation could change very quickly. Mitchell is not a foolproof asset the way Kamara or Zeke are. He's good for the moment, but it's important we don't get carried away with our expectations.
--Deebo Samuel (6-171-0/9) is the luckiest receiver outside of Ja'Marr Chase this season. The guy has at least three very long receptions that were fluky/bs. I know he's a good player. I've always liked Deebo. The point is he's been more fortunate than he is good so far, and the good times aren't likely to last. This is a low volume passing game and is about to get Kittle back healthy in addition to Aiyuk starting to reemerge (we'll get to that below). I fully expect Samuel's value to come back down to earth very quickly. RC has been warning of this for weeks and we're in the last chances to move on from him. I agree with RC's assessment. Trade him while he's super hot and has a top 3 WR valuation from the masses.
--Brandon Aiyuk (4-45-0/7) has been a literal ghost on the season. We've covered this several times and I have warned in past weeks about trying to buy him low because he was so obviously in Kyle's doghouse for whatever reason. Well, it's safe to say that he's out of it now. This is what OC Mike McDaniel had to say about Aiyuk this past week:
“These last couple of weeks he’s looked like the player that we envisioned when we drafted him," offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel said. "He’s a young guy that’s finally starting to understand what it means to be a pro and to approach every practice like, ‘Hey, I’m determining the game on Wednesday. I’m winning the game on Thursday.’ That’s been the difference.”
In this game Aiyuk was definitely part of the game plan. Jimmy was looking for him early and often, although still the obvious 2nd guy behind Deebo. He had shots at two touchdowns that just missed. He's about to start producing. What he produces is hard to say. He's still the number two guy on a low volume passing game, and George Kittle is coming back as well.
Last year when Aiyuk put up big numbers, it was because Deebo was out with injuries. Unless that happens this year, I have a hard time seeing how Aiyuk is going to be a radical producer for fantasy. The most likely result in most games is going to be about what he got here, 4 catches for 50 yards or so, and a TD every 3rd game maybe. Add it all up and it's not that impressive. The best approach with him, if you have the roster space, would be to snatch him up and trade him off after his first big game because that's all it will take for the masses to assume that he's a star again.
--I've addressed it a few times, but Kittle's return likely just muddies the waters even more for the top three guys here. I want no part of this passing game while everyone is healthy.
--On the Bears side, it was Damien Williams, not Khalil Herbert (23-72-0), that was in the game first. This coaching staff is beyond idiotic. They've seen what Herbert can do for weeks and yet they insist on giving boring ass Williams the first crack at starting here.
Luckily for them Williams promptly hurt himself and Herbert was forced to take over again. Williams didn't practice Thursday, but David Montgomery is eligible to return this week. He hasn't practiced in weeks however, so it's unclear if he will be ready in time. If Montgomery can't go Herbert will get another full workload.
That scenario is precisely what I'm rooting for as Herbert looks pretty great. Don't be fooled by the box score here. Herbert had another 40-50 scrimmage yards called back for various stupid penalties. He's not the greatest athlete I've ever seen, but he's just another natural runner that just plays the game well. He kind of looks like a smaller Matt Forte to me.
Watching Herbert and Mitchell across from each other was interesting. They are both smart, crafty runners, but on paper you'd expect Mitchell to be more explosive, and I just don't see that. They look fairly similar, but Mitchell is getting incredible blocking right now and I find myself favoring Herbert as a talent. Either way, ride both of them for as long as you can. They are both just fine in their respective situations.
--I just do not like Justin Fields (19-27 for 175, 1 TD/1 INT, 10-103-1) as a QB, but I have to respect him for fantasy now because he has FINALLY started to run. Why he didn't do this more before, I have no idea, but he's running now and that means good things for fantasy. He's still a very limited passer so you can't get too crazy, but he's a nice bye week streamer.
I see a lot of people call Fields a better passing version of Jalen Hurts, but I radically disagree with that assessment. He is capable of some amazing throws (like his TD pass here), but it's far too rare for my tastes, and he's really jumpy in the pocket and crumbles under pressure (think Tua). Hurts doesn't give a rat's ass about the pass rush and will stand in there and deliver the pass. Fields gets scared and will fling up a wounded duck the second anyone gets close to him.
--Fields's best friend is still Darnell Mooney (6-64-0/9) and not Allen Robinson (3-21-0/4). I know that sounds weird and it's taking people a long time to catch up to. It's true though. As Fields starts to run more I also expect his passing numbers to improve as teams will start backing up for fear of him taking off. When that happens then it's time to jump on Mooney for redraft. Trying to time these things is nearly impossible, so if you have the room I'd grab him now. Pretty soon he's going to crack 100 yards and a TD and it'll be too late. I'd much rather have Mooney than Aiyuk for redraft.
IDP Notes
--DeAndre Houston-Carson (6 tackles) has 17 total the last two games after being elevated to a starting role. I don't see anything amazing from him, just a warm body making a lot of run tackles as teams jammed the ball down this defense's throat.
--Josh Norman (7 tackles, 1 INT) has 23 tackles the past three weeks and is working quite nicely for fantasy precisely because he's not a very good corner anymore and is allowing a ton of short completions. His INT wasn't a great play either. He just happened to be in the right place for a tipped pass to bounce right to him to end the game. Play it if it works I guess, but I feel like there are a ton of safeties putting up similar numbers available on waivers. Corners are hard to count on.
Snap Counts of Interest
56 = Allen Robinson
54 = Darnell Mooney
30 = Marquise Goodwin
59 = Khalil Herbert
7 = Ryan Nall
63 = Cole Kmet
38 = Jesse James
49 = Brandon Aiyuk
46 = Deebo Samuel
25 = Mohamed Sanu
36 = Elijah Mitchell
19 = JaMycal Hasty
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Panthers 19, Falcons 13
I just watched two of the dullest games in the NFL this season, back-to-back for my workday…CLE-PIT then this mess, CAR-ATL. The Computer had a terrible week picking games ATS in Week 8, but it’s rolling on ‘best bets’ and picking underdogs to outright upset/cover – and Carolina was our top bet and outright win call, so at least we got that one.
I wanna say Carolina was lucky to win here, but they were/are better than the Falcons, but Sam Darnold and Chuba Hubbard are so nothing that they can hardly score points, so the games are always too close…but then their ace defense keeps them in games for potential wins against bad opponents – and the Falcons are one of the worst teams in the NFL.
So, two teams wobbled around on offense…and the one with the better defense got the lead and held because the QBs in this game are two of the worst in the NFL.
With this win, Carolina breaks a 4-game losing streak and gets back to .500 (4-4) – and now they play a very pivotal game (for both teams) this week hosting (4-4) New England. The winner has some wild card hopes, for sure. The loser has a lot of work to do to try and scramble into the wild card. We project Carolina to end up with 7-8 wins, but Christian McCaffrey’s return (or not) can alter those hopes. Week 9 is huge vs. NE, a very similar team to CAR…almost identical.
The Falcons fall to (3-4) and are about to fade away in the NFC. They project to finish around 5 wins if they’re lucky.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Falcons are so poorly run/schemed by Arthur Smith (not a genius).
Cordarrelle Patterson (9-35-0, 5-37-1/5) is so clearly their best player, one of the most electric/effective players in the NFL, so it only stands to reason that in a must-win game, a game where with a win you actually had some playoff life – that Art Smith (not a genius…or ‘NAG’ for short) throttles back CP for a heavy dose of Mike Davis (9-44-0, 5-22-0/6) here.
I’m not anti-Mike Davis, but if I were an HC/O-C for the Falcons in Week 8 – I could not get the ball to CP enough in a critical game that was winnable. NAG didn’t, so they lost…big shock.
Patterson is not at any FF-risk, it wasn’t like CP didn’t play or get his touches – just, you’d think they’d lean into this more – but NAG is nickname = not a genius, so he loses a key game and can go back to designing boring, ineffective plays and eating meatball sandwiches for breakfast all week.
The answer to the reason for all the Titans offensive success of late – was it Ryan Tannehill or Arthur Smith? The answer = Derrick Henry.
-- Cordarrelle is one of the best weapons in all the NFL, and Kyle Pitts (2-13-0/6) is already the best receiving tight end weapon in football. It took about 6 weeks, but it’s already true.
Whenever Pitts gets a target, there are a minimum of two guys around him…and possibly 4-5 in the camera shot. Christian McCaffrey catches 100+ passes a year with no defender in camera shot. Cooper Kupp has no one in camera shot on him 80% of his catches this season. A rookie TE is already the most covered/planned-for player in the NFL.
Pitts is an amazing physical talent, but he’s not ready to beat constant double teams…especially when NAG has no real scheme or plays to get him open. Weeks 1-4, Pitts was just running 1970s tight end routes…short route, sit down over the middle, face the QB. Now, Pitts is just on the outside working like he’s LAC WR big Mike Williams, complete with #1 corners on him…losing his ‘great mismatch’ ability so that linebackers aren’t on him, corners are…with safeties over the top.
Matt Ryan (20-27 for 146 yards, 1 TDs/2 INTs), who is as bad as Big Ben now, just flings prayers out to Pitts…which worked the past few weeks when he was more single covered but this game the prayers were not answered, and Pitts was blanketed.
Pitts will be fine, but elite consistency is probably a year and a new QB away.
-- It would help Pitts, if Calvin Ridley (DNP) were playing…to take these #1 CBs away. Stephon Gilmore was covering Pitts on the final drive where ATL was trying to win it with a TD drive – and it ended with a terrible pass from Ryan to Pitts, picked by Gilmore.
When is Ridley going to return? I don’t know, but it’s at least 4 weeks away as he was played on the NFI list this week.
Bad week for Alabama wide receivers…
Tajae Sharpe (5-58-0/6) takes over for Ridley, but if you think Sharpe is going to do much for you for FF…you’re insane. Ryan wasn’t getting Ridley over in 2021, so he’s not going to get Sharpe over. The target pecking order for Ryan is: Pitts, Patterson, Mike Davis, then randomly everything else.
Here’s how bad Ryan is…his best WR, with Ridley gone, is Russell Gage (0-0-0/0) -- and Gage played the most snaps of any WR this game for ATL…and never saw a target. Good luck with your cut-by-20-different-teams Tajae for Fantasy!
-- Ok, let’s switch gears from how poorly the Falcons offense is run to how poorly the Panthers offense is planned…
Chuba Hubbard (24-82-1, 1-9-0/2) is every generic RB in the NFL. Perfectly, cromulent but not a star…strikes no fear into defenses, and you could get the same performances from 50 other RBs not-starting in the NFL.
BUT Chuba Hubbard is Matt Rhule’s wife’s favorite player – so, Hubbard is the future for Carolina. I guarantee Rhule would be happy to ditch McCaffrey’s giant payroll, deploy the money elsewhere and go with Hubbard as his lead back.
And if you don’t think Rhule is capable of that kind of offensive stupidity…have you seen what he is doing, on purpose, at QB? Do you trust his offensive eye?
Hubbard fumbled the opening touch, setting up ATL for a quick lead. Next series, Hubbard right out there again. Newly signed Ameer Abdullah (8-31-0, 3-35-0/5) came in and took touches after a few Hubbard touches, and Abdullah instantly provided a spark with chunk runs moving at a speed that was like you hit the fast-forward button on Hubbard running the ball.
Seeing that, Rhule quickly got Abdullah out of there and went with more Hubbard…and his 3.6 yards per carry this season.
I want to like the Panthers, but Darnold-Hubbard is the worst QB-RB combo in the league…worse than Tua-Gaskin.
-- Rookie TE Tommy Tremble (3-18-0/4) is slowly climbing the ladder of trusted TE option in the passing game. He’s averaged 3.0 targets per game the past 4 weeks as a 40-55% of the snap playing TE. He’s ever so slightly becoming the Panthers lead TE. He’s not there yet, but it’s heading that way.
The last 4 games, Tremble has 7 catches (1.8 per game) for just 42 yards (10.5 per game)…so we’re not close for FF, but he’s someone to keep any eye on going into 2022. Ace blocker, easy short pass for Darnold…and some athleticism after the catch (he’s run the ball twice this season, FYI…for a TD and for a 2-point conversion).
-- The Panthers defense is so good right now…it’s a shame the offense won’t support it.
Shaq Thompson (10 tackles,1 TFL, 1 PD) is back and playing his best ball of his career.
Stephon Gilmore (2 tackles, 1 INT) debuted and sealed the win with a pick late…only playing 32% of the snaps in the game.
Thompson fully back. Gilmore arrived. Rookie CB Keith Taylor (2 tackles) impacting. Jeremy Chinn an all-Pro level safety. Haason Reddick and Brian Burns a top 1-2 punch in sacks. This is a really promising defense…potentially best in the biz in 2022-2023 with Jaycee Horn back.
You might get a nice 4-week run with Carolina ahead…NE, at ARI (if Kyler out), WSH, and at MIA before a Week 13 bye.
-- Carolina kicker Zane Gonzalez (4/4 FGs, 1/1 XP) is suddenly on fire. He hit a 51 and 57-yard FG in this game. He’s 10-for-his-last-10 FG attempts…averaging 2.5 FGs made per game the past 4 weeks. This season, he’s 10-for-10 in all FG attempts under 50 yards.
Snap Counts of Interest:
46 = I Thomas
34 = Tremble
22 = Colin Thompson
41 = Hubbard
22 = Abdullah
11 = Freeman
44 = Pitts
33 = Hurts
18 = Lee Smith
34 = Mk Davis
32 = C Patt
36 = Gage
36 = Sharpe
21 = Zacchaeus
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Broncos 17, Football Team 10
I kept pushing this game study to the end all week, choosing other Week 8 games I thought had more FF-relevance…until I was left with one game left watch/study = WSH v DEN. Little did I know I would have more notes here then any other game this week, or in weeks…and that I’d spend more time getting with contacts to try and glean some rumors/insight into things (which we’ll get to in a moment).
As far as this game itself…a slog. Decent defenses suppressing bad offenses. Denver scored late/last. Washington drove to the red zone for a chance to tie with the clock running out, but they failed to punch it in.
Denver is now (4-4)…a really weak team with a bunch of garbage wins, but (4-4) nonetheless. They have a chance to win 9 games, but more likely they’ll wind up around 7-8. When they traded Von Miller, they signaled to this team that ownership quits on them…so, I’m sure the players will reciprocate the ‘quitting’ mentality ahead.
Washington falls to (2-6)…their season was over a long time ago. But if it wasn’t obviously over before, it is now. And that’s going to be important to keep in mind when I get to the first player note below…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The next segment/note is not a guarantee, but is me working through a theory that I think is likely to play out or is being positioned to play out (an unexpected injury could change anything) and thus we need to act upon it in some way (if I’m right).
Let’s just start with the headline statement, and then layout a case to support it: I think Washington is looking to shutdown Antonio Gibson (8-34-0, 3-20-0/3) in the next 2-3 weeks, and that they are preparing for Jaret Patterson (11-46-0, 0-0-0/1) to work with J.D. McKissic (3-10-0, 8-83-0/8) to finish out the season.
Why?
Because Gibson has multiple injuries he’s been working through (most notably a stress fracture in his shin), so why keep putting him out there taking hits on it and putting pressure on it when they can shut him down and let him heal up for 2022? The best way to deal with a stress fracture of the shin is 4-8+ weeks off.
It’s either that, or Washington is committed to managing Gibson’s reps because of all the injuries…and that means more Patterson then usual and less Gibson than normal.
You need look no further than the start (and all) of this game for clues…
Washington’s first series (in parentheses, which RB was in)
Play 1 = Gibson, McKissic (target)
Play 2 = Gibson (run)
Play 3 = McKissic (target)
Play 4 = Patterson (run)
Play 5 = Patterson
Play 6 = Patterson (run)
Play 7 = Patterson (run)
Play 8 = McKissic (run)
Play 9 = 4th & 1/Gibson (WSH failed to convert)
The first nine offensive plays…
Patterson in 4 times with 3 carries. Gibson in 3 times with one carry. McKissic in three times, touched the ball each time (run/pass).
This is a seismic shift in the Washington backfield. In a key game (Washington trying to cling to NFC East and wild card hopes with a win), and with that Washington thought it the appropriate time to push Patterson in early…and often.
Prior weeks, Gibson ran as a starter and would switch off-and-on with McKissic, usually on 3rd-downs and all hurry-up offenses, and then Patterson would play only a snap or two (or zero) sprinkled in for the whole game. But here, Patterson was the main ball carrier on the first drive…not a guy taking useless carries late, or getting touches because Gibson left with injury – this was a Patterson push.
Perhaps, it was just a surprise attack for Denver? Which makes little sense, given the game and the context…but maybe. What about the 2nd Washington series?
Play 1 = Gibson
Play 2 = Gibson (target)
Play 3 = Gibson (run)
Play 4 = McKissic
Play 5 = Patterson (run)
Play 6 = Patterson (run)
Play 7 = McKissic
Play 8 = Gibson (target)
Play 9 = Gibson (run)
Play 10 = Gibson
Play 11 = McKissic
After two series…
9 snaps, 3 carries, two targets = Gibson
6 snaps, 5 carries, no targets = Patterson
6 snaps, 1 carry, two targets = McKissic
The (close) game would end with final tallies of…
23 snaps, 8 carries, 3 targets = Gibson
16 snaps, 11 carries, no targets = Patterson
32 snaps, 3 carries, 8 targets (team high) = McKissic
Patterson was flowed/thrust right into the offense. It wasn’t forced by in-game injury…Gibson played all game and was in on the last snaps of the game. It wasn’t forced by blowout, and Patterson got late work just because. This was a sustained plan all game.
It’s one of three things…
1) This is the new offense/RB flow because Ron Rivera likes Patterson better than Gibson.
or
2) This was just a one game blip to help Gibson get to the bye week for extra time off. Why even play him at all, then?
or
3) This was prepping Patterson for the future and scaling back Gibson for his own health. And if that’s true, I think it might be Washington’s plan to continue to scale back Gibson and in another 1-2 losses, they put him on IR for the rest of the season to heal him up for 2022/keep him safe from 2021.
Remember a few weeks ago when it was said that Gibson’s shin injury would get worse as the season wore on, and that they needed to manage him and possibly shut him down?
You know what the WFTs were doing a few weeks ago? Trying out running backs. D’Onta Foreman, and the RB they signed a few days ago, a guy who has been with them prior – Wendell Smallwood. The wagons are circling around Gibson, one way or the other.
If I’m reading this situation right, then there is some FF work to do…
1) If you own Antonio Gibson in redraft, you gotta get off of him ASAP – and he has some trade value, especially this bye week where people think he’s resting/healing up. Early in the week, I thought it might be wise to hold too, and see if rest of a bye week would help him, but now I’m seeing and hearing about (from my contacts, not the mainstream) writing on the wall for a shutdown…best case, he’s on managed reps the rest of the way.
2) You will read this, and I know you’re gonna wanna go rush out and grab Jaret Patterson because rookies are magical unicorns but consider that Gibson was doing squat as the lead main back for Washington – it’s a bad offense getting worse with every OL injury, and they just lost their starting center for the season. Patterson will assume a 10-12 carries and 0-2 targets role, projected…and 50 total yards a game with 0-1 catches and no TDs will not be great for FF…unless you’re in a deep league with no RBs left to work with.
You don’t trust, or find boring, Elijah Mitchell…and he’s producing 100+ yard games with a good O-Line…but somehow Patterson seems WAY better in a much worse environment? This is not a call to arms on Patterson.
3) The winner here is J.D. McKissic, in PPR. As Washington’s season and O-Line dies, they will be forced to throw more and more…and that’s JD time.
Weeks 1-5: McKissic has averaged 3.6 targets per game
Weeks 6-8: McKissic has averaged 8.0 targets per game (as Gibson’s play time is being reduced in this stretch)
You can get McKissic for a song/cheap during this bye week, I bet…I know. And you want him in PPR.
Snap count % this season by WSH RB (starting with Week 1)…
36, 44, 46, 40, 41, 61, 64, 46 = McKissic
65, 61, 57, 55, 57, 39, 42, 33 = Gibson
07, 00, 00, 07, 06, 03, 01, 23 = Patterson
-- Speaking of Washington things to panic sell…Terry McLaurin (3-23-0/7), but I’ve been pushing for this sale for weeks, and now my worst fears are happening/locking in the past few weeks.
It’s not his fault, it’s the offense’s. There’s not enough blocking for Heinicke to have time to wait for TML deep patterns to go through.
4-4-7-3 for catches in games in the last four games for McLaurin. Three of the 4 under 50 yards receiving with one TD (and the TDs are almost always strokes of luck/hail mary-ish throws).
I don’t know how this situation improves for Terry with their center now gone and the threat of Gibson being lost in the run game.
-- Courtland Sutton (2-40-0/4) has a similar but not as bad issue with his offense/QB. Sutton is fine, but if you can leverage him hot, I’d do it. He gets Trevon Diggs this week, then Darius Slay, then the shutdown pass D of the Chargers.
-- Albert Okwuegbunam (3-43-0/3) looked like the #1 TE and most desired weapon here…if I didn’t know better. I know Noah Fant (2-8-0/4) is still the main man TE, but Albert O. returning from IR took some touches from Fant.
If Fant is out with COVID this week, Albert O. is a legit sleeper/DFS play. He’s really very promising.
-- No shift in the Gordon v. Javonte sweepstakes. Still a split, with Gordon getting the better activity, slightly.
-- Logan Thomas does not need to be kept with an iron first, but good to hold if you can (if your TE situation is shaky). When he returns, probably Week 10-11…he’s a back-end TE1 hopeful in this messy offense.
-- Washington IDP notes…
Montez Sweat (0 tackles, 2 QB hits) is out for a month+ with injury. James Williams-Smith (3 tackles, 1 sack) will pick up extra snaps, but he’s nowhere near Sweat’s talent.
Landon Collins (8 tackles, 2 TFLs) since moving to linebacker the last three games: 7.3 tackles, 1.33 TFLs per game. He looks quick and energized at linebacker/joker.
-- Denver IDP notes…
Baron Browning (8 tackles, 1 TFL) was pushed into a starting ILB role this game and had a decent output. He may be in that spot for a while. It looks like Justin Strnad (4 tackles) has failed to capture the role. I think Browning is a ‘meh’ talent, but he’s got draft stock…and now playing time.
Malik Reed (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks) will try to be the pass rush force with Von Miller gone. I’ve never been a huge fan, but he gets more opportunities now as well.
Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = Fant
26 = Albert O.
30 = Gordon
23 = Javonte
32 = McKissic
23 = Gibson
16 = Patterson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Steelers 15, Browns 10
This was a typical AFC North slog…and not in a good way, just two boring teams with boring offenses and good defenses traded punts all day and the team that got unlucky with penalties at the wrong time and the one that didn’t have OBJ drop a pass that would have given them 1st & goal with a few minutes left to take the lead, is the one that lost.
Neither team played particularly well or poorly, it’s just their two solid defenses outplayed the weaker offenses and kept the scoring down and the Steelers caught the breaks at the right time and stole it.
The Browns are now (4-4), losers of three of their last 4. They didn’t have Denzel Ward here, which was big. They didn’t have Kareem Hunt, who I think is the heart & soul of their offense. They didn’t have Donovan Peoples-Jones, who is probably their best receiver now. They also had an O-Line injury to further set them back. The Browns are better than the Steelers, but Pitt got the win…and now the Browns have a key game with Cincy Week 9 and then face Baltimore two times in the following 4 games.
The Browns are projecting to land around 9 wins, which likely won’t be good enough to win the AFC North.
The Steelers are somehow (4-3) now…winners of three straight. They will be favored in their next two games (CHI and DET). If they book those home wins, they will be (6-3) and in the AFC North hunt. We still project them at 8-9 wins, closer to the 8-win mark. If they can get to 9 wins then they got a shot at a wild card. They won’t go anywhere if they get there.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The biggest news involving a player from this game has nothing to do with this game, and that’s the Odell Beckham (1-6-0/1) saga.
I’ve said that the OBJ trade was terrible for Cleveland from the jump, and then it was beyond obvious the offense was better without him as we saw this play out the past three years – but the Browns persisted on keeping him. They should’ve cut him before this season for the sake of the locker room and the offense…because you knew this day was coming.
OBJ, through his dad, complained about the WR not getting throws from Baker when he was open. It’s a simple explanation for the lack of throwing to OBJ – Baker is smart, he can’t have any faith in OBJ actually catching the ball if he is wide open. With about 5 minutes to go in this game, down 5, Baker planted a laser beam about 30 yards downfield, over the middle to Odell down around the Steelers’ five-yard line…but, of course, he dropped it…looking around to see where the hit is coming (bailed out by a penalty elsewhere to negate the play from the history books.
Beckham’s career is over…he hasn’t had the heart or mental capacity to play for years going back to the Giants final years. He doesn’t deserve to be on an NFL field, and now he won’t be. The smart thing for the Browns to do is set him inactive every game, pay him not to play…don’t cut him and allow him to go to KC or PIT or BAL or anywhere in the AFC to bite you if he gets a spark of trying/effort.
But it appears they are going to cut him, and he’ll go wherever he’s wanted/tolerated…to go and ruin their locker room. I thought the Browns might pay him not to play, but honestly, maybe it’s smart – let him go to an AFC foe to sink their ship through the cancer that is OBJ.
His career is just about over. Thank God. Now, maybe the Browns can win some games.
In the last two seasons, the Browns are (7-5) in regular season games OBJ has played 20% or more of the snaps in a game. They are (9-3) in regular season games with him out/less than 20% of the snaps.
As a Brown, OBJ has caught 56%, 54%, and this year 50.0% of his targets in a season.
-- The best WR on the Browns has been Donovan Peoples-Jones (DNP) this season, and he had been getting better and better – and just as he was really taking off (4.5 rec., 85.5 yds, 1.0 TDs last two games), he got hurt (groin) pregame Week 7 and didn’t play and then missed Week 8 because of it…so, he seems out of sight out of mind.
Don’t forget him. He’s coming back to be a true #1 with OBJ out of the way. The Browns aren’t a high-volume passing game, so it might not be that amazing, but it has WR2 chances…maybe.
Jarvis Landry is just a WR3 who has WR2 moments from time-to-time now.
FYI…Baker Mayfield (20-31 for 225 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) did not show any affect from his shoulder injuries. He looked 100% normal, fine. He’s not an issue in the passing game…and I think DPJ is going to be his BFF WR ahead.
-- Big Ben (22-34 for 266 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) played about as well as he’s going to play in 2021, in this game. He barely gets his one TD pass per game these days. He got his one here on a 4th & goal, late, forced throw, tipped up by Pat Freiermuth (4-44-1-/7) and caught by him a blink ahead of stepping out of bounds.
Ben was barely headed to getting over 200 yards passing in this game until a late game dump pass to Diontae Johnson (6-98-0/13) turned a 50-yard catch and run iced the game.
Ben has no upside, and his fade is putting FF-pressure on Dionte, among others. I’m worried we’re gonna see a bunch of 6 catch, 50 yard, no TD games ahead for Diontae. I’m a Diontae seller HIGH not a PANIC-DUMP.
Pat Freiermuth (4-44-1/7) has become Ben’s second favorite target now…7 targets in each of his last two games for Patty F. Chase Claypool (2-16-0, 3-29-0/3) is fading off into about one more week before we all start saying – should I keep him in redraft (12-team/17-man roster)?
-- Najee Harris (26-91-1, 3-29-0/3) is volum-ing his way to FF goodness, as expected. 23-24-26 carries in a game his last 3 games…4.0 yards per carry in that stretch, 3.7 ypc on the season.
-- The Steelers defense is really sold/good, and the next two weeks with CLE-DET, both at PIT, is going to be great for DST scoring, so you’d think. Then a rougher schedule the rest of the way…likely unusable (with confidence) the rest of the way.
-- I think the Browns have just as good a defense, if they are at full strength, as the Steelers. However, they have a messy schedule ahead for DST usage. Weeks 10-11 at NE, DET is the last real usage.
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = Chubb
18 = D’E Johnson
09 = Felton
58 = Freiermuth
45 = Gentry
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Bills 26, Dolphins 11
I'd like to be able to say that the score of this game was closer than the actual result...but that would be the opposite of the truth. The truth is that the Dolphins came to play and gave the Bills all they could handle for three quarters. The dam finally broke in the late 3rd, early 4th and the Bills pulled away, but until then it was an absolute dogfight.
I walk away from this game highly impressed by Miami's defense. They were all over the Bills, pressuring Allen, defending passes, even stopping the run for the most part. There were only two things they struggled to contain a little bit. 1) Josh Allen running plays and 2) Cole Beasley in the slot. Once the Bills finally figured out that was how to beat Miami they went heavy with those two concepts and scored twice to give themselves an insurmountable lead.
The final Bills score came on a Tua interception as he was trying to make a play with just a couple minutes left. Without that turnover the Bills would not have covered the spread. I don't think that's any reflection on the Bills though. I think this was Miami trying to rise up.
Buffalo keeps right on rolling down the road to the #1 seed in the AFC. They are far and away the best team in that conference in my opinion and probably the best team in the league. We're halfway through the year and they are still the #1 scoring offense and #1 scoring defense. My one knock on them is that they've played a rather weak schedule of defenses so far and have fallen to two of the tougher teams they've played, Tennessee and Pittsburgh, two teams they should have beaten. Combine that with the Dolphins defense making their offense look mortal here, and I'm starting to worry just a little bit about how good this offense really is.
I'll say this about the offense though, Josh Allen is absolutely carrying it 100% and he would likely be my vote for MVP right now. That guy is unbelievable.
Miami certainly played a tough game here. They had been getting spanked on defense for weeks because they couldn't stop anyone on the ground, but they really played that well here. Maybe it's just a fluke, but if the defense continues playing like this every week they are going to fight their way into a few wins. The schedule is still rather tough though, so I'm not sure how many more wins they could get. I think they probably top out at 5 or 6 max.
Fantasy Notes
--I said Josh Allen (29-42 for 249 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 8-55-1) was my vote for MVP and I meant it. He's back to leading the team in rushing which is exactly what you want for fantasy. Miami was all over the passing game and made him work for every inch here. Allen didn't blink and kept on firing into tight windows, willing his team down the field. I can't state enough how impressed I am watching him play QB. The jump he's made the last 3-4 years is beyond anything I thought was possible.
--Unfortunately though, with Allen's continued improvement as a QB, that is taking away from Stefon Diggs (5-40-0/7) in fantasy because Allen doesn't have to force it to Diggs every other play. I think Diggs will start to come on a little more soon, but there are still a lot of good pass defenses on the schedule, a lot of good CB's, and Diggs is proving to be mortal this year. I think you just have to hold with him and pray a turn comes.
--Cole Beasley (10-110-0/13) continues to be an up and down performer based on matchup. You want to play him in weeks where the outside cornerbacks are very good but the slot is weaker and where the Bills have to throw a lot to stay in the game.
--Emmanuel Sanders got completely shut out here, but I wouldn't panic on him. He's usually the #2 look behind Diggs and hasn't even been far off of Diggs's production. Sanders is the deep threat, so his average is going to be something like 3-4 catches for 50 yards and a shot at a TD but there will be lots of ups and downs. He had a rough matchup here with Byron Jones that's all.
--Tommy Sweeney (3-30-0/4) is no Dawson Knox replacement. He's your average TE, capable of catching passes thrown his way a couple times a game but doesn't provide much else.
--Somehow now Zach Moss (8-19-0, 6-39-0/7) has become the pass catching back over Devin Singletary. I don't like it or agree with it, as I haven't all year, but that's the reality now. He also gets the goal line touches, so he's Buffalo's version of James Conner, except Allen takes more short TD's than Kyler is right now.
--I'm growing to have a grudging respect for Tua Tagovailoa (21-39 for 205, 0 TD/1 INT, 4-10-1). I know, I know. He's not my favorite, but I have to admit he's getting better. The mistakes are becoming rarer and rarer and he just dices defenses up with all these short passes. Seems simple enough to stop, but nobody has really done it yet. Buffalo was in his face all day and not giving him much room to throw, but he handled it well, better than I've ever seen.
Regardless of his real world talents, he's definitely been working pretty well for fantasy, and I see no reason why that would change. He's played four full games this year, scored 15 and 16 points against the very good defenses of the Bills and Patriots, and scored 20+ against the Falcons and Jaguars. He's a good #2 guy, someone you can stream against weaker defenses.
--The top WR for Tua is still Jaylen Waddle (4-29-0/11). These two are slicing and dicing most weeks. The Bills defense was all over it however. I love buying Waddle as an undervalued WR2 but only in ppr.
--RC's best friend DeVante Parker (8-85-0/11) has been working pretty nicely this year as well, when he's not hurt. He's one of the only receivers to have received at least 7 targets in every game he's played and is averaging 12.74 ppg in ppr leagues. That's decent work.
*RC NOTE: With his production with Tua...he is becoming my new BFF. I knew he was good all along!! ;)
--One of my new favorite TE's Mike Gesicki (3-48-0/4) had a little bit of a down game. The Buffalo LB's were all over him because he lined up more as a traditional TE for some reason. He's basically been a huge WR every other game. Not sure what the game plan was for him, but I would expect him back out wide most weeks.
--I've said it all year and nothing has changed, Myles Gaskin (12-36-0, 3-19-0/4) is still the lead back here. That role just isn't worth much in Miami. They have a terrible offensive line and Gaskin just isn't athletic enough to make things happen on his own. He's probably due for a nice ppr pop game.
IDP Notes
--I've got to spotlight a guy I have a lot of appreciation for. Christian Wilkins (5 tackles, 2 tfl, 1 pd) is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in football. He's a DT so he tends to get overlooked because of guys like Donald and Chris Jones, but he's just a really solid football player, is constantly around the ball, gives 110% effort on every play, is smart and a true leader for Miami, impeccable character...he's the perfect team player.
He's got 38 tackles on the year (4.75/g) at defensive tackle. That's 2nd on his own team and 5 more than Donald. He gets consistent production on the defensive line if you need that for IDP.
Snap Counts of Interest
67 = Mike Gesicki
41 = Adam Shaheen
29 = Durham Smythe
65 = Jaylen Waddle
63 = DeVante Parker
40 = Myles Gaskin
16 = Salvon Ahmed
60 = Tommy Sweeney
4 = Reggie Gilliam
56 = Emmanuel Sanders
55 = Stefon Diggs
52 = Cole Beasley
47 = Zach Moss
25 = Devin Singletary
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Saints 36, Bucs 27
Just like I predicted before the game – the Saints would be forced to go to Trevor Siemian, and he would outduel Tom Brady, who would get the ball with nearly two-minutes remaining, down by just two, needing a field goal to win…and that he’d throw a bad pick-six to seal a Saints win.
We keep throwing around the Cardinals, Packers, Rams, Cowboys…and Bucs as the dominant NFC teams to debate on who might be the best – well, the Saints should be in that conversation. They’re getting their O-Line back healthy…one of the best in the league at full strength…and they have a good defense. Jameis Winston was holding them back, but no longer.
The Saints played toe-to-toe with a very sloppy Bucs team, a Bucs team that seems to wilt against any aggressive/physical foe. The Saints earned the win. They jump up to (5-2) and are right in the thick of the NFC South race. They are now (3-0) versus TOMpa Bay in the regular season going back to last year…they did lose to TOMpa in the playoffs. How fast we forget that the Saints won the division last year…over Tom.
The Saints are (5-2) and project to 10-12 wins now…we see them at 11 wins and possible NFC South champs.
The Bucs are (6-2) with an easier schedule to the finish. They should get to 12 wins and eek out the division over the Saints, but if TOMpa loses to the Saints again Week 15 hosting NO, then the board flips to the Saints for the NFC South.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Trevor Siemian (16-29 for 159 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) played totally fine football. He was comfortable in the pocket most drop backs. He wasn’t great but was plausible. He had his Siemian moments but mostly he lucked out of bad spots with penalties (to his benefit) or nice plays made by the receivers. He game managed this to victory. He played from ahead and didn’t blow it. He would/will blow it more times than not, over time, but in this one he held it together for the victory.
I think he looked good enough to warrant a start in Week 9…looked good enough to Sean Payton. I would not ASSUME Taysom Hill is getting the start here…not at all. Sean Payton is the better Kyle Shanahan – he thinks he can take any old QB and win. He’s (5-2) this season with Jameis starting…and just beat Tom Brady with Trevor Siemian, so can you blame him for thinking that?
Siemian played a Mike White type of game…screens and bubbles and solid short/medium throws when afforded time. That’s all you need to do in the NFL anymore.
-- Because the NFL, when lacking a downfield throwing ace, is just a screen and quick slant league – it’s a perfect set-up for Deonte Harris (1-22-0, 3-35-0/7). A true weapon with the ball in his hands. Maybe the closest thing to Tyreek Hill, from an agility and acceleration into warp speed guy that I see in the NFL.
He only plays 30-50% of the snaps in games, but when he’s in it’s for generating offense.
Week 4…led the team in targets (8) despite playing just 49% of the snaps.
Week 5…2 snaps played, one 72-yard TD, left hurt (hamstring)
Week 6…out with hamstring.
Week 7…out with hamstring.
Week 8…led the team in targets again, but just 3 catches…bit also a 22-yard jet sweep added in.
The most dangerous receiver the Saints have is Deonte with the ball in his hands. And he’s not just ‘fast guy’ doing fast guy things (screens, jet sweeps)…he is almost impossible to cover. He makes excellent cuts in his routes. He stop-starts on a dime. I think he’s secretly one of the 15-20 most dangerous players in the game. He has that Tyreek ability of just subtly running by people when it looks like there is no space/room to do so.
Injury is his constant issue. Talent is not.
Jameis Winston is a horrible QB-mind, and he was no good for Harris (or Callaway, or the TEs, or anyone but dump passes and occasional lucky bombs). Siemian would be his best QB – quick, traditional passes a la what Mike White did to Cincy last week. Taysom would be OK but Siemian better for him.
I think a star is waiting to be born with Harris, but probably when it happens…the next game he’ll tear is ACL and PCL and Achilles and pecs and break a femur and get COVID from the cart driver on his trip to the locker room.
-- Marquez Callaway (3-30-0/5) is the Saints best ‘traditional’ WR, and thus he has been a nobody with Jameis…and not much with Siemian, because Callaway works middle and deep, and Siemian is trying to dump off passes not read the field and make slick downfield throws.
Taysom Hill was great with/for Michael Thomas…and Callaway should be able to step in and do some of those same things…maybe…IF Taysom is the starting QB, and that’s 50-50 right now (as I type this).
-- People are dumping/selling cheaper Alvin Kamara (19-61-1, 3-15-0/4) on the news of a 1-2 punch…
#1) Mark Ingram (6-27-0, 2-25-0/2) being trade for has people spooked.
#2) Jameis gone is like Joe Montana being lost for the mainstream, so the sheep all think AK is doomed from the passing game with Taysom or Siemian.
GO BUY AK LOW! He is the Saints offense no matter who is at QB. Nothing changes, nothing to fear.
-- Speaking of contenders to the ‘he’s just like Tyreek’ fantasy world…rookie Jaelon Darden (3-11-0/3) gets a little more involved every week, in Antonio Brown’s absence.
Darden and Tom have a relationship, and I think Brady is trying to bring him along. Down the road, into 2022, as Antonio Brown is done…Darden is going to come into FF-play. Right now, he’s just getting his feet under him.
But, back to the Tyreek angle…if I was compiling a list of candidates to try and stretch into ‘next Tyreek’ realm (and no one is, and that’s not just a cute cliché), Darden would be on the short list. Darden and Deonte are two guys that are small and super-quick. Hill is a thicker, more stout version…so, the other guys pale in comparison, but in movement skills, Darden and Deonte are in the discussion at least.
-- Tyler Johnson (5-65-0/6) is a solid fill-in for Antonio Brown, but he’s not a game changer…he’s just competent, capable. He’s always going to be lower in the pecking order here. Now, if Godwin goes down and they push Tyler into that role…then I’m more FF-interested.
-- Gronk (0-0-0/1) rushed back from injury and got hurt again and is out. AB and Gronk are showing their age…Brady is not. Hopefully, for Gronk owners…the bye week allows Gronk to get back to 100% for the FF-stretch run.
Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Godwin
58 = Evans
39 = Tyler J
09 = Darden
08 = Grayson
37 = Brate
28 = OJ Howard
06 = Gronk
37 = Fournette
13 = Gio
09 = RoJo
59 = Callaway
48 = Tre’Quan
33 = Ty M
24 = Deonte
51 = Kamara
22 = Ingram
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Seahawks 31, Jaguars 7
I thought this would be a relatively boring, low note rewatch/study – but it ended up being a bit more eye-opening than I expected. I was really just wanting to see how Jamal Agnew was used in this game. The Jags losing by 24 was not surprising…although I thought Jacksonville would beat Seattle, or at least cover the spread…I wasn’t surprised Jacksonville played poorly and lost. But rewatching this game this week, there was much more to it…things to learn about both teams.
Three headline takeaways:
1) Seattle isn’t very good, especially with Geno at the helm. And their O-Line is a disaster – the Jags had 7 TFLs and 3.0 sacks in this game. Seattle could not run the ball at all.
The score looked like a blowout, but this was pretty back-and-forth (bad) the 1st-half, and they needed miracle catches from their WRs to move the ball (and atrocious pass coverage by JAX) because they could not run the ball at all.
To some degree, this was a ‘lucky’ blowout by Seattle…given how bad Jacksonville is, and how much Seattle had to scrap and get lucky to get a big lead.
Obviously, things are better with Russell Wilson – but just know this a really bad team with Russell as the safety net from them not being as bad as the Jacksonville’s, etc. If Seattle gets to the playoffs, Russell Wilson should be league MVP unanimously.
After their bye, Seattle has at GB and then hosting ARI…so, they will then fall to (3-7) and have an easier schedule from there but likely they would finish with 7-8 wins (if Russ is back).
2) Jacksonville is THEE worst team in the NFL. Not Houston. Not Detroit. Not Chicago. Not even the Chiefs…it’s Jacksonville as the worst.
The thing is, they have a really nice offensive line…and that’s usually enough to get a team by for some wins/playing decent, but Trevor Lawrence is non-generational, their backfield is ‘meh’ (despite the OL advantage). Their defensive game plan and secondary is the worst. They play with no real energy or competence for any consistent time.
The biggest reason why the Jags are the worst team in football? See #3…
3) Urban Meyer is quite possibly the worst head coach to ever patrol the sidelines in NFL history. Apologies to such luminaries as Rich Kotite, Hue Jackson, and Steve Wilks (among many others).
You wanna talk ‘generational’ on Jaguar things? Meyer is a generationally awful head coach. Pointing to his stupidity of cheating on his wife in public…beyond the moral aspect, just the sheer stupidity to do such things in public…shows how dub he really is. However, it’s easy to point to that but it’s not where we should focus. Let’s just ignore that it ever happened for a moment – let’s look at his awfulness beyond that.
He’s made the worst roster moves and trades (value exchanges) in the league, by far, in 2021. His team and coaching staff hate him…and now the public and the fans do too. It’s come out that he doesn’t really coach anything, he just leaves things to his assistants. He’s useless…a highly paid figure who was hyped up by the media…a sucker’s bet by the Khan family, who should be embarrassed – but they constantly run the team into the ground, so shitty peanut butter has found moldy chocolate to come together for a hot garbage product with Urban and the Khan’s.
If you want to know how awful Urban Meyer is at coaching – watch this game. It’s a clinic on bad coaching. They should show this game (this season) for generations to come on what bad coaching looks like.
Urban Meyer goes through this (or any other) entire game barely interacting with anyone…no one comes near him or wants to have anything to do with him…it’s almost comical to watch. He is worse than the Coronavirus…he has a 10-foot separation around him at all times. He should just build a plexiglass structure with wheels on it to stand in and a little remote control option…or maybe like on a Segway, and he just leans to where he wants the 10’ by 10’ plexiglass booth to move towards and everyone gets out of his way. Perhaps, Urban should get that ridiculous Booger McFarland Monday Night Football crane and coach from there -- that way so he’s as far from human contact as possible.
But the real crime here…down 24-0, the Jags hurry up and go down the field for a score with 1:39 left. If the Jags could convert the 2-point attempt, they cut it to a two-score game and if they can get the onside kick, maybe this gets interesting. It’s not much of a chance, but it’s a chance. However, instead of going for two…Urban decides to kick the XP. Why? I have no idea. It doesn’t make sense on any level at all. No one in the world would kick the XP there…but Urban did. Nice message sent to the team.
So, if Urban was just wanting to end the game. If he was quitting – then why bother to do an onside kick next? But he did…and his half-hearted/defeated special teams quit because Urban already had, and Seattle took the onside kick back for an untouched TD.
The Detroit Lions are terrible…a corrupted O-Line and defense devastated by injury and poor personnel choices. But the Lions are always fighting. The Jags have some talent and a good/healthy O-Line…and with those advantages, they look utterly terrible and disinterested. That’s on the coach.
There is no way this gets any better. No way Urban earns the trust of the team back EVER, because he never had it to begin with and he won’t try/he’s incapable of it because he’s an insufferable, NFL-incompetent a-hole. And yet a billionaire owner is going to continue to support him and pay him more money next week than I will make in the next decade+.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Like I mentioned prior, I came to this to watch Jamal Agnew (6-38-1/12) – the guy I was pushing even harder last week.
What I saw…
Agnew is working as a slot WR, which is short routes in front of Trevor…which is all Trevor is good for, so this works – that’s why Agnew is suddenly the target leader the last few weeks.
Also, Agnew is the best offensive skill position player they have. The only one with juice, so they try to get him on tunnel screens and quick slants, etc. Agnew and Trevor just missed out on 2-3 more catches for 40+ yards, due to miscommunication…that should improve as they go.
The Jags are almost always going to be way down, so little dump passes and a high volume of passes against prevent defenses will help Agnew be FF-productive. He’s a WR2-3 in PPR.
-- Dan Arnold (8-68-0/10) had his best game as a Jag…probably his best game in the NFL. Arnold was running a bunch of simple short routes and Trevor is only good at throwing to that, so Arnold was a nice easy throw into the flat and let him try and scratch out a few extra yards after the catch.
Arnold has a hands issue (to me), but in this game he caught everything he reasonably could. A PPR TE1 potential for Arnold going forward.
-- Jaguars in big deficits = higher passing volume, and when Trevor Lawrence (32-54 for 238 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) has to throw a lot (or a little) it’s all short throws. If you assume Buffalo is going to blow the Jags’ doors off Week 9…then sudden emergency starter Carlos Hyde (4-32-0, 6-40-0/8) is likely to have a similar game as he had here – 8 targets, safety valve throws, Trevor trying to work safe in a deficit. Hyde has hope to be a PPR RB2 this week because of the game script.
-- Not much to mention about Seattle, because playing against Jacksonville is not reality, but two things…
1) I take back what I said about Rashaad Penny (7-7-0)…that he’s done because look at his terrible output the past few games. He looks fine…he looks good…it just looks like the worst O-Line in the NFL in the run game. It may be Geno exacerbating the issue, but whatever it is – it’s not good. Alex Collins (10-44-0) is scuffling around it too.
When Russ returns, maybe Collins is an RB2, and Penny has hope on a Collins injury. But with Geno at QB…forget it.
Jags DE Josh Allen (6 tackles, 2 sacks, 4 TFLs) is good but he was ‘lit’ by how bad this Seattle O-Line was.
2) Tyler Lockett (12-142-0/13) had a monster game because the Jags coverage was so disastrous. Urban Meyer is in love with rookie CB Tyson Campbell (4 tackles, 1 PD), but he sucks – if Geno Smith is working you…then you really do suck. They rotated Campbell on Lockett, and then as that was a nightmare, so they then put a slower safety on Lockett…and Lockett destroyed that too.
I didn’t like Campbell’s cover ability when scouting him for the 2021 NFL Draft…good body, nice athlete, crappy cover ability. The NFL people thought he was better at Georgia than Eric Stokes…and I passionately pleaded that such a scouting take was nonsense. I win.
Again, Urban Meyer is a disaster as a game manager, a personnel decision maker, and with his NFL Draft scouting eye.
Snap Counts of Interest:
69 = Marvin Jones
55 = Agnew
52 = Shenault
50 = Hyde
15 = Ogunbowale
08 = JRob
55 = Arnold
18 = Farrell
27 = Collins
17 = Homer
11 = Penny
44 = Everett
36 = Dissly
08 = Parkinson
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Cowboys 20, Vikings 16
I'm legitimately not sure how the Vikings lost this game. When I watched the game live I had the impression that the Cowboys were equal to or stronger than the Vikings, that they were the better team and just barely kept missing opportunities until the final minutes.
But after rewatching it I have the opposite impression. The Vikings were the better team here for the most part, and the Cowboys were quite lucky to come away with the win. Minnesota dropped at least two easy Cooper Rush INT's, constantly hurt themselves with dumb plays and penalties at bad times, gave up a 73 yard score to Cedrick Wilson after he beat his man and got a easy lane to the endzone, had a recovered fumble called back because of a penalty, and settled for too many field goals including a possible game-winner with 3 minutes left.
Now I say the Vikings were the better team and should have won, but that comes with a caveat, they were better than the Cowboys without Dak Prescott. The only reason they could compete is because Rush was at QB, and even then the Cowboys still needed just a little bit of luck to pull out the win. It's not like they won despite getting blown away on the field. The defense, in particular, acquitted themselves well.
This was a massive, massive win for Dallas. By getting to 6-1 here they basically just slammed the door shut on any chances of the Eagles or Giants catching them in the East. They will likely roll on to somewhere around 12 or 13 wins and a #2 or 3 seed in the NFC. As I mentioned in my Rams recap, I think they belong in the conversation for 2nd best NFC team along with the Bucs and Rams. To me the Cardinals are still the team to beat at full strength, but those three teams have the best chance at taking down the top dog.
Dallas has only lost to the Bucs so far and barely. Their only close wins were over the very solid Patriots and Chargers. Everyone else they've essentially blown out. Their offense is top 5 in the league, and the defense is middle of the pack but definitely not terrible and seems to be getting better as they go.
The Vikings needed this win to have much hope of catching the Packers in the North. That chance is probably gone now, BUT there might be hope if the Packers lose the next game or two with Rodgers out. They draw the Ravens and then the Chargers though, so it's not going to be easy. Minnesota isn't dead yet, but their division title hopes are fading. More than likely they'll have to settle for a 6 or 7 wildcard seed in the NFC.
Fantasy Notes
--How Cooper Rush (24-40 for 325, 2 TD/1 INT) had this day for fantasy I'm not sure. He wasn't terrible, per se, but he wasn't very good either. I counted at least two dropped INT's by Minnesota, and a good chunk of his yards (and the two TD's) came on the go-ahead drive and the broken play by Wilson. Rush is still a below average backup and not someone the Cowboys should be relying on if Dak gets hurt again.
--To go along with Rush's surprise stats, I was amazed to see Amari Cooper (8-122-1/13) with that stat line. It felt like CeeDee Lamb (6-112-0/8) had the better day to me while watching.
So what happens with Amari now that Dak is back? Hell if I know. Personally, I never felt like there was a ton to worry about. Dallas is running the ball really well with the two backs this year, and Schultz has become a new favorite for Dak, but to me it was just a matter of time for Amari to get his numbers. Now the trouble is I think those numbers equal a WR2 this year and nothing more. Unfortunately he's not the top dog. Lamb is. So it's Lamb that could be a back end WR1-1.5 and Amari will have to settle for a bit less.
It's perfectly fine to hold him and hope for the best, but it's not crazy to try and flip him for something better off this big game...Mike Williams perhaps? In fact, you could probably get Mike AND something else in exchange for Amari. Check with RC on that one, but I think he'll like it.
*RC NOTE: I do still like Mike Williams, but I am down for a spike back up for Amari with Dak as well. I’d rather have Williams, still, at this stage...he’s shown physical dominance this season.
--Cedrick Wilson (3-84-1/3, 1-1 for 35 yards) had a nice day as well, but it all came from the one long play. You can't remotely count on him at this point and Michael Gallup is coming back soon anyways.
--What happened to our juicy matchup for Kirk Cousins (23-35 for 184 yards, 1 TD/0 INT)? Well, turns out the Dallas secondary isn't so juicy anymore. They are getting better and better by the week. Kirk should be ok going forward, but looking at the schedule I'm starting to get a bit nervous for him. It's not a terrible schedule of pass defenses, but it's not particularly easy either, and Kirk tends to feast on easy matchups.
--Justin Jefferson (2-21-0/4) got banged up fairly early here after battling Trevon Diggs. He came back into the game early in the 3rd quarter but was clearly not 100%. We'll have to monitor his injury this week. I wouldn't say that Diggs shut him down exactly. It was a good fight, but Jefferson had him beat at least once for a possible long play, and Cousins overthrew him while wide open. The rest of the time Kirk mostly refused to even look in Diggs's direction. So long as Jefferson is healthy I think he's a terrific buy-low candidate, although his name still carries a large price tag. He's been good this year but has just missed out on several huge games.
--Look for Tyler Conklin (5-57-0/7) to have a huge game against the Ravens next week. He's really turning into a very good TE and is becoming a bigger part of the offense especially with Jefferson hurt, and the Ravens have been one of the worst teams against that position.
IDP Notes
--I heard this Micah Parsons (11 tackles) kid was pretty good...he's getting better by the week. He's pretty much a lock for DROY at this point. Hope you listened to Chris Bilello's advice early in the year!
--Harrison Smith had 6 tackles on opening day against the Bengals and has had 8 or 9 every single week since. He's as close to automatic as you can get for a DB.
Snap Counts of Interest
65 = Adam Thielen
47 = Justin Jefferson
38 = K J Osborn
54 = Tyler Conklin
17 = Luke Stocker
65 = CeeDee Lamb
63 = Amari Cooper
42 = Cedric Wilson
60 = Dalton Schultz
32 = Blake Jarwin
55 = Ezekiel Elliott
19 = Tony Pollard
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Patriots 27, Chargers 24
I went into this rewatch wondering what I was really going to see/uncover, but my bent/bias going in was – what’s wrong with the Chargers? Lost big to Baltimore Week 6, then a bye, come out of the bye and lose to New England. What gives?
Well, there’s a two-part answer…
#1) It’s a classic wrong-minded NFL conclusion based on my preconceived (false) reality. It’s not ‘What’s wrong with the Chargers’…which is a question that essentially states – how could the great Chargers lose to the lowly/inferior Patriots?
I’m looking at it wrong/too far on one side…
The Patriots are a good football team…a plausible offense and a really good, emerging very good defense. The Chargers played decently here, but the Patriots were just better, tougher, more energized…led by the defense.
#2) Something is off with the Chargers. They are playing very California cool/lazy, low energy…especially on offense.
Blame the Patriots…they brought pressure, they held time of possession 34/26, they didn’t let the Chargers get in any rhythm. LAC had more talent and played well on defense…just the Patriots were tougher and more energized.
The Chargers looked sloppy and low energy three weeks ago, and a bye week off didn’t cure it.
This current Chargers team isn’t winning the AFC West. I don’t know who would win the AFC West, but it isn’t the L.A. from this game or last game (v. BAL). The Chargers team from Weeks 2-5 was going to win the AFC West. Can the Chargers get that mojo back? We’ll see – the schedule is begging them to reel off 4 straight wins ahead (@PHI, MIN, PIT, @DEN), if they go (2-2) floundering around…then they got real issues.
We project the (4-3) Chargers to finish with 10-11 wins still, but it’s a fluid situation right now…a precarious one.
On the other hand, FYI…I think the Patriots are going to the playoffs (potentially). The almost-wins over Tampa and Dallas in recent weeks should not have been interpreted as a scrappy lacking team staying close – it was signs that this team is really good. It’s an OK team being well-coached into a ‘good’ team.
Bill Belichick rises again! If he’s not careful, that plucky young coach may just win a Coach of the Year award.
The entire league turns into a pass happy entity…so, then Belichick goes 1970s run game and defense and special teams in 2021. That’s ‘so Bill’…
We’ll see how this pans out. The Patriots (4-4) play a pivotal game (for both teams) this week at (4-4) Carolina…a similar-ish type team…RB-based with a good defense. The winner is probably a future wild card in their conference. The loser is going to fight for .500.
We project the Patriots to finish with 9-10 wins, and a wild card shot. Eight wins possible…10-11 wins a stretch goal. Nine wins the most likely outcome, with 10 wins very possible.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The two QBs here both struggled to be above a 50% Comp. Pct., in what was a defensive struggle holding down both QBs. Not surprising for Mac Jones (18-35 for 218 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) as a rookie struggling against a good LAC defense -- but kinda surprising for Justin Herbert (18-35 for 223 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs).
Is there a problem with Herbert in 2021? In his last two games, 3 TDs/3 INTs, both games under 57% Comp. Pct., and two losses. He’s the #9 QB in Fantasy Football right now…and that’s a disappointment. He flew into the top 5 for FF after Week 5…but has stumbled since then.
I didn’t see a huge problem with Herbert in this game. Everything looked mostly normal. Some misfires, but too many dropped passes…and too many pressures. Credit the NE defense because they got after him and to him…a season high 3 sacks on Herbert.
Something seems a bit off, in general, with this offense. Not a total breakdown, but Herbert’s accuracy has tanked in his last two games…albeit against good pass defenses, but that’s not like Herbert.
I’m confident enough, but not overly confident in what I see. I will feel better if he comes out and blows the doors off of the Eagles this week – as all the good QBs have this season. If he flops vs. Philly…then we officially have an issue.
-- Mac Jones played solid football, again…it’s just the Chargers have one of the best pass defenses in the league. Both teams in this game have top pass defenses, and both QBs scuffled.
-- The story of this game was really the two defenses…
I’ve been touting the Chargers for weeks, while they gave up 42 (CLE) and 34 (BAL) points in games…and people abandoned me on this pro-LAC defense scouting.
In this game…they held NE to 20 offensive points (the other 7 was off a pick-six), which goes with their usual flow in games this season – holding team at or under 20 offensive points in a game.
They are the #4 pass defense in the NFL (by yards per game).
They are 8th best in fewest TDs allowed (9) this season.
They held Mac Jones to just above 50% Comp. Pct. and allowed no TD passes.
Their Achilles heel has been against the run, and here they did allow 141 rush yards…but it was on 39 carries, just 3.6 ypc allowed. They were much better against the run here coming out of the bye week.
The Chargers defense is showing signs of good, but not great. Useful in good matchups…Week 9 vs. PHI might be a good one. Week 12 at DEN is promising. Week 14 v. NYG depends upon the Giants health. Week 16 at HOU and Week 17 v. DEN would be a great FF-way to end the season.
The Patriots have a much better, deeper defense with a real pass rush…a defense starting to come into it’s own, bolstered by the intense run game controlling time of possession. The made Brady and Herbert struggle this season. And when they get a weak opponent, they’ve done some damage – thumping the Jets twice, and really thwarting Houston but the Texans had some fluky big plays hit and covered a decent effort over.
We’ll see how really good (or not) the Pats defense is the next four weeks: @CAR, CLE, @ATL, TEN are all either favorable or neutral matchups…no bad matchups.
-- Josh Kelley was set to inactive for this game, so I want to be done with him and looking for other #2 RB gambles. Justin Jackson (3-79-0) reeled off a 75-yard run in this one but did little otherwise and got hurt…AGAIN.
I have no idea who the handcuff for Austin Ekeler is. I don’t think the Chargers know either.
-- Mike Williams (2-19-0/5) got shut down this game. I watched a lot of this game from his perspective to try and get a feel for what happened. He looked fine. He is getting doubled – teams do recognize he’s the WR to stop, not Keenan Allen (6-77-1/11).
Williams has been hurt in recent weeks, but I don’t think it’s an injury issue – I am hoping it was injury before (Weeks 5-6), and just a good game plan here, and we can resume that Big Mike great start to the season going forward now. If Herbert and Williams struggle against Philly, then it’s time to worry.
The Pats have shut down Amari, Cooks, and Godwin in recent weeks…and now Williams. It might just be the Patriots effect here.
The Eagles seem like they have a good pass defense, statistically but it’s a massive ‘tale of two cities’…
PHI defense versus = ATL, SF, CAR, DET = 11.8 ppg allowed + (3-1 record)
PHI defense versus = DAL, KC, TB, LV = 36.0 ppg allowed + (0-4) record
Quite a split.
12 TDs/3 INTs in those losses to good teams, big scores.
I think you know which bucket LAC should go in…
-- Since Week 4, Kyle Dugger (6 tackles) is the #8 DB PPG scorer in IDP.
Matt Judon (5 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 TFL) made life miserable for Herbert in this game. He’s #3 among classified linebackers in the NFL in sacks this season with 8.0 sacks…a half a sack away from #1 (TJ Watt, Landry). #4 in sacks among all defenders (Garrett #1 with 10.5).
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = J Cook
25 = Parham
11 = McKitty
45 = Ekeler
08 = Roundtree
07 = J Jax
41 = Dam Harris
25 = Bolden
12 = Stevenson
