- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Chargers 30, Raiders 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
A must win game for the Raiders…a change at defensive coordinator for the week (a short week change, which was really odd)…facing an always special teams mistake-prone, poorly planned Chargers team.
Everything stayed the same…
The Raiders defense was worse than ever…like usual of late.
The Chargers tried to give the game away a thousand times with bad special team’s work (two missed FGs late) and various other Anthony Lynn ridiculousness (we’ll get into). Like usual all season.
The Raiders lost a key game…like usual of late.
Justin Herbert overcomes everything to keep LAC in it…and to win it. Like usual, whenever LAC does win games – which is a rare event.
You could do a graduate school thesis paper studying all the ways these two teams displayed poor management leading up to the game and then exacerbated it by the in-game play calling/strategies. I can’t even get into them all here because it would take too much time away from the fantasy considerations.
Basically, the two head coaches are so married to their lead running back they can’t see straight and thus all the other aspects of their team is underutilized, underperforming (when they have so much more to offer). The difference between the two teams is -- in crunch time, in desperate times, off-script…the Chargers have Justin Herbert and the Raiders don’t. Thus, the Chargers win…because of Herbert bailing out the awful Anthony Lynn Ekeler-centric game plan.
Eight of the first 9 series of this game, for both teams, the very first play of the series was either a run or throw to their running back.
The Raiders need a miracle to make the playoffs now at (7-7) after this loss…they need to win out and then pray for a lot of things to go their way. It’s pretty impossible. The Raiders have gone from a top 10 NFL team hopeful after Week 10 to one of the worst teams in the NFL in record time. That miracle end/win over the Jets…it wasn’t a fluke. The Raiders are that bad now. They’re missing a ton of defensive players on top of other mounting issues. They’re ‘done’ for 2020.
Break up the Chargers! A two-game in streak. Two lucky wins where Justin Herbert bailed out Anthony Lynn’s game plan, in-game coaching decision confusion, and special team’s follies. It’s fine by me…I bet them ‘under’ 7.5 wins for 2020, and at (5-9) with two games remaining – they can’t beat me. Win all you want! Just, for Herbert’s sake…please fire Anthony Lynn after the season.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- If Justin Herbert (22-32 for 314 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 4-14-1) didn’t get to OT, he would have had a 250+ yard passing event with just 2 TDs (no rushing TDs)…a very basic FF event. The OT session got you over…or made you mad if you didn’t start him…or mad if you faced him.
To me, it was more evidence that Anthony Lynn is killing Herbert…keeping the Ferrari in the garage at all costs it almost feels like. Lynn is simply a terrible head football coach for a team with an elite, future Hall of Fame QB talent. Lynn would be a great college coach for a run-based team. He’s a terrible NFL head coach. He’s so sold out to Austin Ekeler and his RB-duo plan/philosophy, he cannot see straight. Herbert being a mad downfield bomber gets in the way of his ball control, tough-guy-running playbook.
Justin Herbert’s short-term future FF value rides on who the 2021 head coach of LAC is. If it is Lynn…then Herbert is a top 10 FF QB. If it is anyone with half a passing game brain…Herbert could push Mahomes, Kyler and Allen for the #1 spot in fantasy.
-- You had to start Keenan Allen (1-17-0/3) this game. You had no choice. He was active. He was working out fine pregame. He looked fine in-game.
My frustration is…why was Lynn bothering to put him in at all? Allen started…looked fine, then all the sudden was out for a series at a time, then would get thrown in for a play here and there. You know what’s great for an athlete with a hamstring issue? Standing idle on the sidelines for 10-20-30 minutes at a time…and then coming cold to run timing routes in key situations.
If Keenan was good enough to go…keep him out there.
If Keenan was so bad off…never put him out there.
But, Anthony Lynn has same amount of business sense or football personnel sense as the amount of times I have or will watch any ‘Masked’ ____ TV event – which is zero. I can’t wait to guess which ‘D list’ celebrity or football player might be in that costume! I’m on the edge of my seat…
Also…Mike Williams…same. Why bother? Additionally, I’m so over my ‘with Hebert’ interest in Mike Williams – always hurt, always disappointing.
You wanna know how stupid the Chargers franchise is…how poorly run?
They exercised Williams’ 5th-year option. He’s set to make $15.7M guaranteed in 2021. They made that decision this summer.
Message to the Chargers’ Owner, President, and/or General Manager: https://youtu.be/eHExP1Mn4S8
-- OK, Marcus Mariota (17-28 for 226 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 9-88-1) is back in our lives…and he’s doing what he should’ve done 3-4+ years ago, and he would’ve been a star – by being a trailblazer-ish run-first runner-thrower…instead of a run occasionally but try and be a pocket passer (not his call…the NFL ruined him).
Mariota was either not allowed to do what his gifts begged them to do (run a lot) or he didn’t want to/was scared to…but now with his career on the line, he’s willing to run…for now. Which means…he’ll still be desperate next week – and he’ll run and run and run. 100+ yard rush game threat coming next week.
It’s not totally insane that Mariota plays so well over the next week or two, Gruden falls in love and we have a new LV QB for 2021…while a drafted QB sits…and Carr is elsewhere (Indy). There will be a lot of ‘look at how well Ryan Tannehill has done with a change of scenery’ comments.
-- With Mariota running, you can’t like Nelson Agholor (4-49-0/8) for that good FF game potential he’s had more weeks than not this FF season.
Hunter Renfrow (1-4-0/2) and any other WR are also wastes for FF.
-- Tyron Johnson (3-61-1/5) and Jalen Guyton (4-91-0/6) had very solid games here…more evidence of how good Justin Herbert is. More evidence of how much Mike Williams is not needed. More evidence of…if LAC gets better WRs (via draft or free agency) to go with Allen – this offense, Herbert, could go ballistic in 2021 and into the future.
If they keep Lynn, they’ll keep all these mediocre WRs and try to be a run-first team. Keeping Anthony Lynn for this team’s make up is the Chargers dooming themselves for 2021.
-- Speaking of dooming yourself… Why is Theo Riddick (1 carry, -5 yards) on an NFL roster and getting into games and touching the ball. Jon Gruden is out of his mind.
-- Kenneth Murray (8 tackles, 1 TFL) continues his ascension…9.3 tackles per game, 1.0 TFLs per game the past three games.
-- Two LV IDP notes…
1) LV rookie UDFA LB Javin White (1 tackle) – remember the name. Athletic, hard hitting safety prospect being converted to a linebacker. He’s gotten huge in a body transformation.
2) I was asked a question about Maxx Crosby (no stats)…whether he was ‘mailing it in’ this game. To answer the inquiry: I didn’t see any loafing or issues.
My take would be…
a) The Chargers Right Tackle ate him alive. Scary that #74 RT Storm Norton can make a spot start and hold off Crosby all game.
b) Crosby played 92% of the snaps in an OT game…he played a lot of snaps. He was hustling/trying all game, he eventually got gassed at various times…I’d assume.
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Agholor
53 = Zay Jones
24 = Bryan Edwards
13 = Renfrow
53 = Guyton
39 = Tryon J.
28 = MK Williams
24 = Keenan
15 = KJ Hill
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Seahawks 40, Jets 3
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Game review: The Seahawks beat the Jets by 37 and were playing backups in the 4th-quarter…geez, what a shock. End of review.
I knew when they fired Gregg Williams, the Jets defense would go in the tank – like him or not, the defense was the only thing the Jets had…a bulldog tenacity that didn’t realize how big it was/wasn’t…always willing to fight to the end. Now, that’s gone. Thus, the Jets will lose out…unless the Patriots are out of the playoffs and decide to lose to the Jets Week 17 to keep them from getting Trevor Lawrence.
My Survivor pool picks can have me/us running against the Jets the rest of the way…and we will until we see about Week 17.
Seattle has this quasi-bye week win to go to (9-4), in a race with the Rams for the NFC West…which they will lose because they are not in the Rams’ class anymore. Seattle may be playing their 1st-round playoff opponent in Week 15…at Washington.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I was pleased to see that Josh Adams (6-27-0, 2-3-0/2) led the Jets in rushing. So what…it was only 27 yards? Let me enjoy my life for a moment without spoiling it with details.
Frank Gore (8-23-0) started and was Frank Gore…nothing.
Ty Johnson (8-16-0) was actually in on the 2nd play, rotating in and out early with Gore…but doing nothing as well.
Mid-2nd-quarter, game getting out of hand, Adams entered and reeled off another 10+ yard run (12 yards) and that was too much success to handle, so he rotated with Gore-Johnson the rest of the way as they lost 37.
We gotta see what this Gore kid is all about for the future, ya know.
*This game was a total embarrassment, as if you didn’t know from the score. No reason to talk about the obvious players…they did what they do, and then some of them didn’t play 25%+ of the game in this laugher. So, I want to write about five off-the-grid players that caught my eye here…
1) Colby Parkinson (2-16-0/2) got his first two targets and catches of his young career. Not enough time/targets to really dig into but he looked about as I expect him too – looks like a slow WR playing TE…which means he’s a quicker-than-average TE. He ran some smooth enough routes and showed a little burst after his first catch.
One of our top-rated TEs for this draft class…and better for FF than NFL purposes because he is such a promising receiver. My fear is he’ll just be a 3rd-down/pass game specialist TE – but he could be lethal in that role and the overall passing game.
He’s not going to be a full starter in 201 as Dissly-Hollister-____ (ancient blocking TE) just sit and watch on the sidelines all game…and, thus, we have to dull Parkinson’s 2021 expectations until we see how they’re going to use him.
2) SEA WR Penny Hart (1-19-0, 1-3-0/1) got a jet sweep on the first series (nice!). He later got a purposeful bubble screen.
I’m a Penny Hart fan (as a scrappy player, not sure he’s a future star or anything)…and he seems to be growing on Pete Carroll. The guy was an undersized star at Georgia State…1,100+ receiving yards and 8 TDs as a freshman, hurt as a sophomore, 1,100+ yards and 8 TDs as a junior. All this while playing with garbage/dysfunctional QBs/passing games.
Overlooked in the 2019 NFL Draft. The Colts gave him a chance first, he bounced from practice squad-to-IR-to-released then Seattle started adding and dropping him from the practice squad…but he’s worked his way to the main roster by talent, not by injuries above him.
He’s 5’6-7 and not overly fast but has football speed and determination. Good hands but quite small for the NFL game. He can make it through heart (Hart). He may have a DeAndre Carter type career ahead – popping up here and there but never locking in for consistent playing time and then just disappearing. I hope not but it’s likely.
3) The Jets added WR Jaleel Scott (1-16-0/1) in September, after the Ravens cut him (he was a 4th-round pick in 2018). And Scott was elevated here because of injuries to others.
Scott is a big (6’5”/220), fairly quick, fairly talented WR…but there is some issue, I think. Cut by the Ravens before his 3rd-season doesn’t make sense. He might have attitude issues…or the Ravens have 10,000 WRs they don’t use already, so Scott was the odd man out.
He’s with the Jets now, but likely no future for FF is imminent.
4) SEA LB Ben Burr-Kirven (5 tackles, 1 TFL) looks like he could be an heir apparent to one of those ILB spots for Seattle when Wagner-Wright are moving on. He looks like every textbook ILB…shorter, stout/thick, tackle-hungry, aggressive…but is pretty quick for 6’0”/230. He ran a 4.56 40-time with a sweet 6.85 three-cone at the 2019 NFL Combine.
5) NYJ CB Javelin Guidry (5 tackles, 0.5 TFLs)…who names their kid Javelin? His brother Shotput and sister Polevault might have been on hand to watch the game.
A 2020 UDFA corner now forced into playing due to mass injuries for the Jets. He’s pretty quick, a track star type football player – he has been impressing with NYJ since getting a shot a couple weeks ago. It’s ‘the Jets’, so who knows what that even means. I’m keeping an eye on him. Solid numbers/play from here.
Snap Counts of Interest:
37 = Hollister
36 = Dissly
19 = Parkinson
47 = Lockett
46 = DKM
39 = DMoore
33 = Swain
27 = P Hart
53 = Perriman
38 = Crowder
33 = Jeff Smith
11 = Berrios
09 = J Scott
20 = Ty Johnson
17 = Gore
12 = J Adams
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Cowboys 30, Bengals 7
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
First play of the game, innocent handoff by Cincinnati…fumble lost. Dallas stalls on their ensuing drive but gets a field goal for a 3-0 lead.
Next series, Bengals start driving down near the Dallas Red Zone…and fumble…scooped up and 78-yard defensive TD. Two drives in, two lost fumbles…10-0 Dallas. It was that kind of day for Cincy…that kind of last couple decades.
Dallas played pretty poorly. They probably aren’t much better than the Bengals today (Jerry Jones just rolled over in the coffin he sleeps in) – but spotting hapless Dallas a couple of turnovers, a quick double-digit lead…it allowed the Cowboys to just go through the motions for an easy win. Cincy had a million chances to get back into it, but the Dallas defense had a good day vs. an awful Bengals O-Line.
Dallas is now (4-9) and two games back of Washington in the NFC East with three games remaining. IF Dallas can win out and…and…you know what…? Let me not waste time typing scenarios that Dallas miraculously gets the NFC East title. Another dud season by GM Jerry Jones. We’re onto 2021…with a bloated payroll and nothing else to show for it. The Bengals are probably set up better for the future than the Cowboys right now.
The Bengals fall to (2-10-1) losers of eight of their last 9 games. Without Joe Burrow, they’re arguably the worst team in the NFL this very moment. They should finish with just the two wins and achieve another high draft pick, but no amount of draft picks can fix their overall organizational/ownership/geography issues.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The most interesting thing about this game? The Cincinnati Bengals RBs.
So, Gio Bernard (3-8-0, 3-15-0/3) starts…because we have to see what this kid is all about and definitely NOT check out the younger backs to see what they can do in a lost season.
However, Gio fumbles on the first play. But Gio is a long time, respected veteran on this team. I’m sure there will be no coaching retribution. He won’t be benched.
But he is.
Trayveon Williams (12-49-0, 3-14-0/3) then enters the game, and starts slicing and dicing his way through the Dallas defense – but then he fumbles in the red zone, Dallas scoops and runs it back. Well, now there has to be retribution? So odd that Trayveon, not Samaje Perine was put in the second series here.
Next series (#3)…Samaje Perine (10-32-0, 2-9-0/2) was in the whole series.
So, we’ve had Gio-Trayveon-Perine for the #1-2-3 series…and Perine didn’t fumble, so I guess Perine next series? Nope. Back to Trayveon Williams. Gio kept on the bench.
Halftime.
Now, I’m thinking – Cincy has never cared a wit about Trayveon Williams…but now he’s playing a lot and Gio is benched? What universe am I living in? Did Zac Taylor just get semi-smart? This is a pattern that shows me he is wanting to see more of Trayveon Williams…which makes sense, because Trayveon is really pretty talented – and showed it here on the two series he got. Let’s go, Trayveon!
Nope.
Gio takes the entire first series of the 2nd-half.
Then Gio next series.
Then Perine next series.
Then Gio next series.
Down 23 with a minute+ to go, Trayveon is back for the final nothing series.
It doesn’t even make any sense.
The takeaway? I have no idea. Trayveon got good playing time and was clearly a ‘spark’ as a runner and very much as a receiver. And then he was gone.
The takeaway? Zac Taylor, like so many other NFL head coaches – no business sense at all. No feel for talent. Gio knows the playbook best, so…ta-da. Another horrific Bengals season in the books.
Who to use for FF from this backfield Week 15? None…none of them vs. Pittsburgh.
But there’s hope for Trayveon Weeks 16 or 17…some kind of hope.
-- The best RB on the field this day…Tony Pollard (11-39-0, 2-9-1/2). Also known as the RB buried in Dallas for two more years before he can fly away in free agency…unless Zeke eats his way or smokes his way out of the league before then. Doubtful.
Pollard could do so much more as a runner, but especially could do much more in the passing game – but that would require foresight, planning, strategy. All things that will not get in the way of Mike McCarthy getting a massage in his office at Dallas HQ.
Ezekiel Elliott (12-48-0, 2-11-0/3) has not rushed for a TD in his last 8 games. He has rushed for 100+ yards in a game just once this season.
Who would have thought Ezekiel Elliott would be a worse redraft pick than Saquon Barkley or Christian McCaffrey this season? At least you could move on to other things with Barkley-CMC out. How many people got burned week after week by pushing Zeke in -- because ‘it’s Zeke, you gotta play him!’
I wouldn’t play him vs. SF this week or PHI next week, unless you had nothing else.
-- So, I’m re-watching this game and there was so much focus on ‘Andy Dalton’s return to Cincinnati’…and they keep showing his face, talking about it ad nauseum, panning to the hundreds in attendance – and I’m thinking…who the hell cares about this? People in Cincinnati don’t care as much as the TV people keep insisting that they do.
Andy Dalton is probably the happiest guy there that he finally escaped Cincinnati.
They just kept droning on and on about during the TV coverage. The amount of shits anyone gives about Andy Dalton’s emotional return to Cincinnati is equivalent to the percentage chance I’ll care about or watch the movie Wonder Woman 1984…which is zero.
The amount of previews I saw for this movie in the last week is set at 1,984…but my interest level in it, or any other Superhero movie is still set at zero.
I tried to watch the Avengers because my kids were talking about how good it was. Really? There are rare rocks that if you ‘collect ‘em all’ you can rule the universe? Sounds plausible.
I really love watching people with superpowers like where they can change time and space, be indestructible, breathe underwater, fly, disappear, conjurer spells, move things with telepathy, shift weather patterns, have special weapons, special suits, invisible planes, control the world through collected rocks…I love that they have all these abilities and toys -- and then are fighting each other every other scene by punching each other.
Look, if you wanna fight me…and I have the ability to pick up a car or Mt. Kilimanjaro and hurl it at you at 5,000 mph just be thinking it – I think I’ll go to that option first versus trying to punch your lights out.
Stupid superhero movies are like the NFL…these coaches have all this talent around them but use Gio Bernard to try and win instead.
-- Brandon Allen (27-36 for 217 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) doesn’t have any superpowers. Well, he has one gift…he’s better than Ryan Finley (1-2 for 5 yards, 0 TD/0 INT).
If the Bengals go into MNF vs. Pittsburgh with Ryan Finley at QB…what a follow up/marquee matchup to watch versus the last MNF game between the Ravens v. Browns. What appointed viewing.
Who am I kidding, we’ll all be tuned in on the edge of our seat to see if Diontae Johnson can catch a pass or not.
If Finley is starting…all the Bengals WRs are FF-dead this week. Pretty much the same for them with Allen in, but better/hopeful if Allen is in…but I don’t think Allen is going to be in.
Snap Counts of Interest:
28 = Perine
27 = Trayveon
17 = Gio
32 = Zeke
19 = Pollard
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I know the mainstream football analysis is going to butcher this year’s class even worse than normal – because they are going to blindly favor big school prospects more than ever, because those schools will have the only names they are truly familiar with, and it’s just the ‘name’ they are familiar with not their ‘game’. They’ll hive mind run with whatever names the collective seems to be buzzing about – because they don’t put in the work, they just echo things they’ve heard. I’m not saying that to be a jerk – it’s the open window of opportunity (their failure) that I was able to build my career/business upon.
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- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Bucs 26, Vikings 14
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The better team did not win here.
If I were the Vikings, I’d file an injunction and take it all the way to the Supreme Court to get this game result overturned if I had to.
Two plays before halftime were lethal…two referee calls were legit lethal to the Vikings.
#1) In the red zone, the Bucs up 7-6, Tom Brady throws a timing pass in the end zone where Mike Evans pushed off his DB as he fell down…but the penalty called on the cornerback for P.I. – setting Tampa up for an easy score after. Here’s the thing…the pass was intercepted as well. What would have been a stopped drive/change of possession turned into 7 points…that never should’ve happened. Instead of a 7-6 TB lead with Minny just forcing a turnover -- it quickly became 14-6 Tampa off the nonsense call.
#2) Not too long after, right before half, the real injustice occurred. From his own side of the field, no time left, Brady just heaved a Hail Mary to the end zone. As they do, the players jostled in a crowd for position…the ref called a pass interference in the end zone on Minnesota. What? I don’t think I’ve ever seen that in all my years. If that was a penalty, then every Hail Mary is a pass interference.
The utterly ridiculous end zone call gave TB the ball for one more play – and they took the easy field goal and 17-6 lead…it should’ve been just 7-6 TB instead…that actually should’ve been a Vikings lead. Because while the refs were jobbing the Vikings defense, Dan Bailey was jobbing the Minnesota offense with missed FGs and XPs. Bailey went 0-for-3 on field goals and 0-for-1 on extra points this day. He may not be working there too much longer.
Tampa Bay gets a terrible-looking win to get to (8-5). This Bucs team has looked bad for several weeks now. They’re running out of steam…but they should finish strong with ATL-DET-ATL the next three weeks. They’ll make the wild card with ease, and hopefully we have 50% less stories about the Brady-Arians relationship until the playoffs.
Minnesota is now (6-7) and fighting for their playoff lives. Week 15 v. CHI is their season. And then at NO on Christmas night is kinda important as well. An (8-8) finish could get them to the final wild card spot. They have to beat the Bears this week or it’s pretty much over for them.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Bruce Arians blabbed his mouth off all week about it (for reasons I’ll never understand why head coaches do this) and he did just what he said – a heavy Ronald Jones (18-80-1, 1-4-0/2) game plan. I think Bruce Arians thinks he’s the smartest, toughest guy in existence…and everyone wants to hear him talk, so he does…tips his hand all the time and he is never not him at any time…he’s always ‘on’ (in his mind). Like the world’s worst poker player who thinks he’s the world’s best poker player in the world and talks about it all the time.
Any whooo…
Jones went heavy and would again this week ahead…but he broke a finger, had surgery, got COVID reserved – so he's likely out Week 15. What will Arians do? He hasn’t blabbed it out yet, but his O-C (who is junior Arians) did blab it – they’re going with Leonard Fournette as the lead…which is funny because he was a healthy scratch this game.
Fournette is playing for whatever he thinks his future is Week 15…so he should be amped. The Falcons have a good run defense. Fournette can stay on the field on 3rd-down, but probably comes off some for LeSean McCoy (4-32-0, 1-3-0/1) with the risk McCoy shines and gets the hot hand.
*By the time I wrote this first draft, and then came back to it later to punch it up – Arians is out talking about Fournette being ready to lead the way this week…so, blabber mouths gotta blabber.
-- The Vikings TEs combined for 9 catches for 103 yards and 1 TD on 9 targets. Which should bode well for Hayden Hurst next week (vs. TB)…but Matt Ryan sucks, so…
Tyler Conklin (5-40-0/5) had his best game of 2020…he’s a solid TE prospect buried on this team…just like Irv Smith (4-63-1/4) could be a borderline star on another team.
Assuming no Kyle Rudolph Week 15, should be good for Irv this upcoming week…but note that Conklin played 45 snaps to Irv’s 28. Maybe Conklin is the better play? I don’t think you can trust either in this offense.
The TE uprising was a reaction to Tampa doing a good job shutting off the WRs…thus the Justin Jefferson (4-39-0/8) and Adam Thielen (3-39-0/4) weak FF games.
*Late note…Irv Smith AND Kyle Rudolph have been ruled out, so game on with Tyler Conklin…whatever that entails.
-- Tom Brady (15-23 for 196 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) had a so-so game. Had an end zone pick reversed on a BS call.
In his last five games, Brady has…
220 yards or less passing = three times
340+ yards passing = two times
You never know what Brady, what Buccaneers team you’re going to get week-to-week.
Which means you have no idea on Evans-Godwin-Gronk either.
I think Arians wants to play run game + defense, and Brady wants to rack numbers. We’ll see which side wins next week. The Falcons are more susceptible to the pass game then beaten by the run.
-- TB rookie SAF Antione Winfield (12 tackles, 1 sack, 1 TFL) played like a man possessed in this game. One of the best rookie safety performances in a rookie season that I’ve seen in my career. Carolina’s rookie SAF Jeremy Chinn the same – and Chinn will get more votes for 2020 Defensive Rookie of the Year, but Winfield and Chinn will both be league greats in the long run.
-- Tampa Bay-DST looks good to me for the ROS…
At ATL, with dying Matt Ryan Week 16.
At (likely) Chase Daniel/DET Week 16…awesome.
Snap Counts of Interest:
44 = Godwin
39 = Evans
25 = Ant Brown
05 = S Miller
34 = RoJo
16 = McCoy
45 = Conklin
28 = Irv Smith
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Cardinals 26, Giants 7
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Giants have a pesky/solid/scrappy team…one that shocked a lot of people Week 13 with a defensive beat down of the Seahawks – their 4th win in-a-row. The Giants had momentum coming into this game, everything to play for (the NFC East lead), and they got their starting QB back. All those positives…and the Arizona Cardinals just went in and drop kicked them at their home.
It was 13-0 Arizona at the half. 20-0 Cards midway through the 3rd-quarter. The game was never much in doubt. Why? The Cardinals defense is really, really good. When they get a favorable opponent, they tend to squash them with their defense…regardless of what their offense does. Arizona planted 8 sacks on the Giants in this game on top of holding them to just 7 points…and that was a lucky TD (set up by a lucky bomb catch/Hail Mary throw to the goal line).
It will be noted in the mainstream as ‘a Giants collapse’ but it should be noted as a strong Arizona win in a stretch where the Cardinals have been playing nothing but top NFL teams/playoff teams. This was a needed, quality win for Arizona…a team I’m starting to sense is a lot better than I thought a few weeks ago. It’s a schedule-based stumble of late, and they’ve been in every game they lost. Beware of the Cardinals…there are growing through matchups with top opponents.
Arizona is now (7-6) and one more win probably has them in the playoffs, but two more definitely does. Not an easy schedule ahead…PHI-SF-LAR, but it’s easier than they’ve had the pas 8 weeks. We see Arizona getting to (8-8) for sure and a likely playoff spot, but (9-7) and a near lock for the playoffs is just as likely.
The Giants ran into a buzzsaw here. They had won four in-a-row prior and five of their previous 7 games. They fall to (5-8), a game behind (6-7) Washington. This NYG team is OK/good not good/great and has two tough battles ahead (CLE and BAL). It’s likely too much of an uphill battle for them now. A projected (6-10) finish and falling short of the NFC East and wild card.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Kyler Murray (24-35 for 244 yards, 13-47-0) Report…
Everything is fine, but just a ‘meh’ FF tally here. This is a tough defense to put numbers on, so not shocking. That’s why we had him closer to #10 for the week than #1 in QB rankings.
Kyler had shots at TDs – one drive halted at the goal line, another wound up an easy Drake plunge. Kyler ran more this week. But Arizona got up big and just sat on NYG from there…no need for any electricity from Kyler. No Kyler worries from this game at all.
-- Kenyan Drake (23-80-1, 1-10-0/1) had another plodding game, and even had two fumbles…but nothing is keeping him away from 17+ carries and goal line TDs of late. It is what it is. Ride it if you got it.
Chase Edmonds (7-32-0, 4-21-0/5) is just a rotational, pass game back. Likely to miss this week’s game with injury.
-- Which Dan Arnold (2-27-1/4) do you see?
a) The one who has 4 TDs in his 3 last games…after none his first 7 games of 2020?
Or
b) The one who has yet to see more than 4 targets in any game and who has been under 35 yards in nine of his 11 games this season?
Arnold is capable of bigger, better things…one of the most physically gifted TEs in the NFL – but this offense doesn’t really ride the TE, like ever. Just a high point TD throw luxury for Kyler right now. Hopefully, he’s moving/going higher…but I still see low level usage with a recent TD spike.
-- You might as well just ignore all the NYG receivers from here on in.
If Daniel Jones (11-21 for 127 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) isn’t running to keep defenses honest (and he can’t because he’s hurt) and if Colt McCoy (2-3 for 18 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) is playing on purpose – don’t even bother with the NYG receivers.
The Giants are #31 in passing TDs (9) this season. Only NE with 8 TD passes is lower. NYG is #30 in passing yards on the season.
Evan Engram (2-18-0/4) is possibly playable, just because of the weak options anyone has at TE week-to-week. But it’s shaky…like it’s been all season.
-- The non-Hopkins Arizona WR’s Report…
Larry Fitzgerald (2-10-0/3) was back from COVID. Which Kliff Kingsbury then decided to make Andy Isabella (DNP) inactive, thus placing the final nail in the coffin on Andy’s Arizona career, I would think. They have to cut or trade him this offseason. I fear they keep him as a #4-5 WR for the next two years and waste his career.
The Larry Fitz replacement in 2021, if he retires, is potentially KeeSean Johnson (1-9-0/2) but that’s not a for-sure thing.
I suspect Christian Kirk (3-14-0/4) will be traded/he wants out of this offense in 2021+.
There could be more WRs drafted or one signed in free agency and then it’s Hopkins + ____ and ____ as the #1-2-3 receiver’s next season. After Hopkins, the rest of them have been pretty FF-useless/inconsistent in this Air Raid save for a Kirk TD spike/blip several weeks ago.
-- ARI LB/DE Haason Reddick (5 tackles, 5.0 sacks) racked up five sacks in this game…6 QB hits total. Reddick had no sacks his prior five games, so this is likely an NYG problem not a Reddick uprising.
ARI LB Dennis Gardeck (2 tackles, 2.0 sacks) has 3.0 sacks in his last 2 games. I wish it was a breakout performance but he’s only playing 4-20% of the snaps in games. They aren’t committed to him, even though he could be good/great…per me/my scouting.
Snap Counts of Interest:
27 = Gallman
16= DLewis
06 = Alf Morris
51 = Maxx Williams
27 = DeValve
24 = Arnold
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Packers 31, Lions 24
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game result can just go in one part of your brain and out the other. It seems obvious…the Packers scored a lot of points and beat the Lions, no big deal. This game is just striking me as odd…a trend with the Packers…
The Packers were big favorites here and everyone assumed they’d stomp the Lions out easily. But it was 14-14 at halftime. 21-14 GB after three quarters. The Pack got up 28-14 with 12 minutes left and everything seemed fine. But the Lions scored to cut it to 28-21 with 6+ minutes left. In the end, Chase Daniel entered and drove Detroit down the field easily and made the Packers sweat a little bit at the end – but Green Bay won it (didn’t cover the spread).
As I was watching this game and seeing the Lions as sloppy/flimsy -- I’m wondering how Detroit was staying in this game. The week prior, with Wentz at QB, the Eagles did the same thing to Green Bay – cut the lead to a TD with 6+ minutes remaining before GB put it away late. I don’t know if Green Bay is ‘flip the switch’ good…or very sloppy and fortunate to play a bunch of bad teams most of the season (and last season) – they played four playoff teams last season and are pacing for the same this season (ignoring MIN, who might make it). The Lions will play eight 2020 playoff teams this season (ignoring MIN) by comparison.
In 2020, so far, the Packers have played three games against teams with a winning record…they beat the Saints Week 3, and then got smoked/embarrassed by Tampa Bay Week 6, the Colts came back to beat them in OT Week 11. I don’t see a real ‘it’ factor with the Packers…aside from Aaron Rodgers throwing to Davante Adams to the surprise of every defense they face.
Green Bay is now (10-3) and the #1 seed in the NFC, but they don’t feel like the best team in the NFC. I think the Rams would crush them head-to-head. I think the Saints are better than them, now, as well. Seattle is arguably better. Regardless, the Pack has a great schedule to finish with 12-13 wins this season and getting that #1 seed…a huge advantage making teams go to Lambeau in January.
Detroit (5-8) has had chance after chance to stay in the playoff hunt, but they’re just about done. A loss to Tennessee this week should finish them off. The Lions will likely finish with 5-6 wins in the end.
I re-watched this to see more Chase Daniel in action, for projections for Week 15’s sake (and Daniel might start the ROS). Outside of Daniel’s scouting…there’s not a lot to discuss here for FF Week 15+.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- OK, so we will have Chase Daniel (3-6 for 29 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) for Week 15…and possibly the ROS. How does this affect the Lions and their related weapons for FF?
First off, Chase Daniel isn’t terrible. He isn’t good, but also not the worst. He’s a ‘D’ grade QB who, if you let him play it safe…he’ll manage the offense. If there’s pressure and/or great coverage…and 3rd & long with him throwing medium or deep…he’s in trouble.
Facing the Titans Week 15…might not be the worst. The Titans are not a high-end pass defense by any means, nor do they typically pressure the QB. The Titans are dead last in the NFL in pressures per drop backs to pass in the NFL.
Daniel will likely relay on three things…
Short, timing passes to Danny Amendola (6-66-0/7)…Amen could have another stat line in Week 15 just like this one Week 14.
Dump offs to D’Andre Swift (7-24-1, 4-26-0/5) – could be a similar stat line Week 15, but with Swift getting more carries.
T.J. Hockenson (6-43-1/11) could be at some risk of falling off his recent top 5 FF TE run. Daniel seemed way off-track throwing to him in this limited view. Tight window, over the middle…not a Daniel strong suit.
When Daniel needs to go downfield, surely he’ll lean on Marvin Jones (4-48-0/8) but without Kenny Golladay, Jones will draw top coverage…and Daniel is not a gifted deeper thrower. Marvin may be more decoy than FF-producer Week 15.
Figure Daniel will have 200 +/- passing yards, 1 passing TD…maybe a 2nd in garbage time at best. The Lions to score two TDs all game, tops. And who gets those TDs will be a mystery. My #1 bet is: if the Lions get close to the end zone, it will be a swing pass to Swift for the score. Daniel reading the defense in the red zone, a shortened field, making a zippy pass in traffic to a receiver for a score – not as likely.
With that…the most confidence for FF pertaining to Daniel – the Titans-DST scoring projection.
-- Side note, D’Andre Swift looked fine in his return to action from missing the prior weeks with a concussion. He played double+ the snaps of AP. Just not a game where the Lions could run/control the game…they were chasing and only had the ball for 24+ minutes.
-- I don’t want to hear about Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6-85-1/6) as a rising star and neat Week 15 option -- the two games prior to this, MVS played/started, played #2 WR snaps…and had no catches on 2 targets Week 13, and prior to that (Week 12) no targets. Yes, 79% of the offensive snaps played Week 12…and he saw no targets.
Allen Lazard (2-19-0/3) is suffering a similar fate...lightly, randomly used in the passing game and playing 50-65% of the snaps.
Whatever you football talent-think about MVS or Lazard, Aaron Rodgers keeps telling us what we should FF-think – don’t waste your time.
What?
Like you’re planning to start MVS this week? You aren’t. I hope you aren’t.
Lazard will have a nice game, on your FF-bench…then you try and start him the next 1-2-3 weeks for nothing FF-useful…then back-and-forth you go, never getting it right. So, what’s the point of holding Lazard? It’s not a Lazard thing…it’s an Aaron Rodgers thing.
Chad Hansen for Houston hasn’t played football in like two years and walked into the Texans starting lineup and has had two consistent, nice FF game outputs – but MVS or Lazard never do.
Rodgers only throws to Davante, and defenses can’t stop it…so it’s never going to change, so why fight it or try to out guess it (and I can’t blame Rodgers when it’s always wide open)? Lazard only exists as a Davante handcuff. Sad but true.
-- Robert Tonyan (5-36-1/5) IS becoming the Davante alternative.
His last 4 games:
4.8 rec., 46.5 yards, 1.0 TDs per game.
Since Week 11…the #4 PPR PPG TE in fantasy.
Since Week 3, Tonyan is the #3 non-PPR PPG TE in fantasy…a tick behind Darren Waller. He’s #3 in PPR PPG in that span as well…a couple pts per game behind #2 Waller.
9 TDs for Tonyan in his last 12 games.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
62 = Adams
47 = MVS
46 = Lazard
47 = Jones
20 = Jamaal
36 = Swift
16 = AP
14 = Kerryon
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Bears 36, Texans 7
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Texans had the ball first and stalled out to a punt on their first drive. The very first play of the game for the Bears on offense, David Montgomery ran off tackle through a wide-open hole and then took off for an 80-yard, virtually untouched, TD…and that was a sign of things to come.
The Bears made it 14-0 mid-2nd-quarter, then the Texans answered to cut the lead to 14-7. A few minutes later, the Bears registered a sack/safety on Deshaun Watson and the dam broke. The Texans wouldn’t score again, and the Bears piled it on.
The Bears were playing loose. There was joy on the sidelines (a big lead helps)…I saw real enthusiasm, confidence with the Bears here. The team is starting to gain some momentum behind the improved play of Mitch Trubisky. It could be a one-week blip, but for a couple weeks now I’ve kinda seen some things with the Bears offense that would give me hope that they might get to the playoffs with help from a win over Minnesota Week 15.
The Bears get a much-needed win to rise to (6-7). If they can beat MIN and JAX the next two weeks, they would be (8-7) heading to a Week 17 with Green Bay (who may not need the game/win to matter for seeding). Eight wins, with a win over Minnesota Week 15, might get Chicago in. Nine wins would get them in for sure. A loss to the Vikings this week pretty much dooms them.
Houston has been playing much better, but this game was in the cold weather (which they haven’t been in all season) and they played like they didn’t want to be there…as the score showed. Houston will wind up with 5-6 wins and a head coaching decision to make in January.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- You do realize Mitch Trubisky (24-33 for 267 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 3-26-0) is putting up better numbers than half the starting QBs in the NFL this season?
Five full start-to-finish starts this season, 12 TDs/4 INTs, (2.4 TDs/0.8 INTs per game) 1,208 yards (241.6 yards per game.
A 16-game pace of: 38.4 TDs/12.8 INTs, 3,865 yards.
Not bad for a guy who the football media has deemed incompetent.
I would maintain five things about Trubisky’s recent run as returned-to start:
1) He’s the #13 in FF PPG QB (4pts per pass TD) from Weeks 12-14 (his return to starting).
2) He’s had an incredibly easy schedule pushing his rise (GB-DET-HOU).
3) He has an easy schedule ahead…MIN-JAX the next two weeks, in good weather.
4) He still plays like a puss…he won’t run with purpose/authority.
5) Had he had a real coach working with him in his career, he might have been coming into his own right now as a top 10-15 NFL QB. He’s a very gifted (‘tools’) QB whose career is going to come and go as a failure…and I don’t think it had to happen.
Going to Buffalo in 2021 (for a few years under Sean McDermott) to be a backup to Josh Allen might help save his career…maybe.
Hard to confidently bet on him the next two weeks…but it’s been wrong to FF-bet against him when he starts/finishes a game this season. He’s looking very solid, confident the past few games…but I still don’t see any true ‘it’.
Career records as starters (same draft class):
27-20-0 = Trubisky
28-22-0 = Watson
-- I wish Trubisky would throw more to Darnell Mooney (1-5-0, 2-22-1/2), and the fact that he doesn’t shows Trubisky is not a very smart/good QB in general. It’s the easiest throw to an uber-talented get-it-and-go guy, but Trubisky only wants to throw medium deep by choice over working a short game.
Every time Mooney gets a little bubble screen, which has been his most likely target lately, something good happens. Every time Trubisky tries to hit him way down field…they rarely connect. Mooney’s TD in this game was a goal line bubble screen he dodged-ducked-dived into the end zone through several defenders for a TD.
Mooney can be a star…we just don’t know who his QB will be in 2021 to help make it happen or keep it grounded.
-- Trubisky is liking to throw to Cole Kmet (4-41-0/7) now, who is responding well to the increased targets. Seven targets in each of his last two games. 4.5 rec., 39.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game the last two weeks.
Kmet is playing a ton of snaps the past four weeks…that isn’t changing, and it’s a very comfortable throw for Trubisky right now (what I see re-watching them together).
-- Chad Hansen (7-56-0/7) was Deshaun’s #1 target in this game…almost like a Cooper Kupp-Jared Goff type connection. Hansen has 7 catches in a game, which was a follow up from 5 catches for 101 yards the prior week (his first 2 NFL games of 2020) – aw everyone collectively yawns.
Hansen is a legit NFL WR…like a #3-4-5 WR. Handy/useful/reliable…and he’s showing that instantly upon being forced a chance due to all the WR injuries. He’s produced with Cooks Week 13, and without him Week 14.
Week 15 vs. IND? Perhaps it is plausible for PPR if they get down and are throwing.
Week 16 vs. CIN? Could be pretty good, especially if Cooks is out for any reason.
I’ve maintained for two weeks that Keke Coutee makes sense as a very comfortable throw for Watson…honestly, looking at the tape – Hansen is just as comfortable, if not even more reliable.
-- David Montgomery (11-113-1, 3-42-0/4) had that 80-yard TD run to start the game. Two things about it/his game here…
1) Wide-open hole and then as he was going into the secondary, Justin Reid made the single worst tackle attempt in the NFL in the year 2020. It was so bad that I would’ve benched him right after that (and he’s hurt and on IR now anyway).
You tell me what you see: https://youtu.be/dMOsFBFnKlc
Good on Montgomery for the TD run, but a giant hole and then a safety playing two hand touch…it helps.
2) After that carry, DM was 10 carries for 33 yards…3.3 yards per carry against a bad Houston run defense. Let’s not put Montgomery in the Hall of Fame yet.
-- As Duke Johnson 8-26-0, 2-53-0/2) failed yet again…Buddy Howell (11-42-0, 1-3-0/2) got a deserved shot to carry the ball in the 2nd-half, a quasi-Duke benching. Howell is a limited, try hard RB…and when David Johnson returns this week, Howell will not matter.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Kmet
29 = J Graham
61 = S Mitchell
53 = Hansen
49 = Coutee
40 = Fells
36 = Akins
15 = Warring
30 = Duke J
23 = Howell
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Broncos 32, Panthers 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The game review would simply be: The Broncos returned a punt early in the game, and that seemed to set the tone for Denver to go with this game. Denver led 13-7 at the half. Eventually leading 25-10 after three quarters…and it just felt like Broncos were not about to yield to the Panthers this day. They didn’t. Carolina tried to sneak back into it late, but they couldn’t overcome Denver.
My gut feeling re-watching this game…with neither team having much to play for, Denver came out trying hard and really handling Carolina – despite many injuries that have plagued Denver going into this game. The Broncos are still fighting. They battled Kansas City to the end the week prior. The worst game they’ve played recently is their 31-3 loss vs. New Orleans – the COVID event/the Kendall Hinton starting at QB game.
Denver is now (5-8) and playing tough/never say die football. Unfortunately for them, they draw the Buffalo Bills Week 15…the best team in football. The Broncos will probably win at least one more game if not two to get to 6-7 wins for the season.
Carolina did not bring that never say die attitude to this game. Post bye week, they laid a mild egg here. The Panthers are now losers of seven of their last 8 games. Potentially, they’re going to lose out and finish (4-12).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Bizarre game for Curtis Samuel (7-68-0/9, 2-22-0).
The guy is so clearly the best player the Panthers have in a given week (CMC not playing)…he’s the money receiver on 3rd-downs, he is the best running back on the team (CMC not playing), he’s can go deep to make plays or he can be a grinder over the middle or you can make him a bubble screen homerun threat.
There is no aspect of Curtis Samuel’s game that a very good Robby Anderson or D.J. Moore can best him at. And we’ve seen that on full display this year. It’s not just my two-year+ theory/hope speaking…now, it’s real. So, how does Curtis Samuel barely touch the ball in the 1st-half of this game…especially with D.J. Moore out? I think Samuel just had one carry and no catches/1 target by halftime.
Samuel’s very good numbers this game…all came in the second half.
I don’t know how Carolina can go through a game without realizing/planning this – that’s what scares me about Samuel every FF-week. They have no real plan for him to start, but then they get desperate and want Samuel to bail them out in the passing game. The cherry on top will be the HC and O-C probably saying during this week (like they have already multiple times this year), yeah…we gotta find a way to get Curtis the ball more.
Who’s in charge of that anyway? Like it’s some mystery, some riddle to figure out. How hard is it to call a running play for a particular player…or bubble screen? How many times are you driving in your car and forget that the big pedal is for ‘stopping’ said vehicle? What do these coaches do all week that when they get to Sun day, they forget to give their biggest playmakers the ball? Davante Adams and Derrick Henry have no such issues.
Regardless, Samuel was great here…he’s been really good for FF for many weeks now. But he can also get ignored. We mostly just have to trust he’s going to put up WR1-2 numbers each week in PPR, knowing there’s a risk where they ‘forget’ about him.
-- Christian McCaffery missed this game. He’s going to miss Week 15. Why are we even doing this now? Let the guy have the rest of 2020 off. There is no reason to roll him out there. If they do, it’s probably going to be in a limited capacity anyway.
-- Strange trend…
Teddy Bridgewater’s (30-40 for 283 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 3-31-1) passing numbers are slowly trickling down into what you might expect from Teddy…8 TD passes his last 7 games, about 1.2 passing TDs per game…which is very weak.
However, did you know he’s rushed for 3 TDs in his last 4 games?
Teddy has 4 rushing TDs this season…7th most among NFL QBs. One more than Deshaun Watson.
You know who else is tied with Teddy with 4 rushing TDs so far in 2020? Jared Goff.
Strange QB names putting up rushing TD numbers lately.
-- I may have jumped the gun a little bit completely dismissing Drew Lock’s (21-27 for 280 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) 4 passing TD event here. Yes, I know Lock had 13 TDs in 9 games this season. I know he is below 58% Comp. Pct. for the season.
I know I’ve made fun of him…a lot…all season.
Let me make a little case for him – to at least take a pause on the abuse we give him.
1) I thought Drew Lock really looked good here – the best I’ve seen him play since that one Houston game in 2019. On tape, with my eyes…I saw a little ‘it’ factor trying to peek its head out this game.
Inconsistency and fake ‘flashes’ of ‘it’ is something that has haunted Lock since college – 33% of the time he looks confident and lethal. 67% he makes dumb decisions and acts like a child on the sidelines. He’s not ‘mature’. He’s not the professional face of a billion-dollar business. He does possess some higher-end NFL talent/tools, though, physically. Mentally…not so much.
2) Lock had one TD pass and 4 INTs in his first three games of the 2020 season. However, in his last 6 games…12 TDs/9 INTs. He’s got a little 2.0 passing TDs per game trend rolling…and that’s upper end like the big boy QBs.
3) His O-Line is pretty good…he’s only been sacked 4 times in his last 5 games.
4) His numbers are rising without Courtland Sutton or Noah Fant around much/at all on his upswing.
I still see flaws more than not, but I am seeing a little spark. I want to write him off, and I’d bet against him having to declare the future today…but I said that about Josh Allen, who Lock reminds me of a bit. Can Lock get his tools harnessed? Is the NFL becoming so easy to throw on…that Lock (raised a new era passer) is now starting to get it a little bit…and might continue to gain ‘it’?
5) 14 full games played (Week 2 of 2020 he played a quarter, then was hurt)…he has a 8-6 record in those games with 20 TDs/16 INTs.
If I could ignore his worst game of his career (1 TD/4 INTs in a loss to LV this season)…he has an 8-5 record otherwise with 19 TDs/12 INTs in 13 career games…1.4 TD passes per game…not terrible, and rising of late. Ignoring that bad 2020 LV game, he has 11 TDs/5 INTs in his last 5 games. Not bad at all.
At this stage, I’m ‘going to put a pin in it’ on dismissing Lock. I’m going to look deeper, not be so dismissive…and not torch Sutton-Fant, etc., for Dynasty futures because of the ‘Lock (fear) factor’.
If 2020 has taught me anything, watching the difference a year made on Josh Allen…I should take a pause at this moment before just assuming Lock is terrible and everything else related is a nightmare.
We’re going ‘on a break’ with the Lock mocking (for a bit): https://youtu.be/iHlTvnCFmQ4
It’s going to be hard to forget what I (think I) know about Drew Lock.
-- If I’m moving to a more ‘open’/neutral stance on Drew Lock until we get more evidence…then maybe I should reconsider all his current receivers?
K.J. Hamler (2-86-2/3) had a huge game here because Lock saw him deep and planted a couple bombs right on him. Hamler’s style with lock’s arm can work – it did here nicely.
Tim Patrick’s (3-36-1/5) sudden TD spike (3 TDs his last 2 games)…maybe it can hold up? Ehh…not with that schedule ahead – top CBs Tre’Davious White and Casey Hayward the next two weeks.
Jerry Jeudy (2-42-0/2)? Nope, still not a fan. But he’s not terrible. I don’t like his fit with Lock.
Jeudy also needs about 200 yards in his final 3 games to blow my ‘under’ prop bet in his 830+ yardage total for the season. And if Drew Lock is suddenly not terrible…oh, crap.
Come on, hamstring!
-- Noah Fant got sick and left the game. No big deal, the now great Drew Lock almost made his backup TEs both TE1s this week…
Troy Fumagalli (4-53-0/5) had a catch and run 40-yard TD, but he was ruled down short of the goal line…TD reversed.
Nick Vannett (4-20-1/8) looked the most spry of the two slower TEs…and he saw 8 targets. Wow.
Vannett would be the sleeper play if Fant is out. But I think Fant is back this week. He's already back to a full practice on Wednesday.
-- FYI, Denver DE Jeremiah Attaochu (4 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 TFLs) is doing that thing again…that thing where he’s like a ghost in the NFL, missing games with injury, you’re not sure if he really still is in the NFL…then he returns to action and starts sacking things.
2.0 sacks, 3 TFLs, 3 QB hits in his last 2 games. 4 TFLs in his last 3 games.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
49 = Mk Davis
16 = Rodney Smith
02 = Cannon
45 = Vannett
39 = Fumagalli
05 = Fant
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Football Team 23, 49ers 15
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Washington wins a game without scoring an offensive TD and with 139 yards of total offense. A pick six, a fumble return TD, 4 turnovers by the Washington defense…and every time the 49ers, the better team here, tried to crawl back in it – another turnover occurred at the exact wrong time.
I don’t know that Washington ‘won’ this game as much as the 49ers blew it. Regardless, it wasn’t a gem by either team. A defensive struggle/offensive failure with bad QBs…someone had to win, the team getting the turnovers won.
Washington picks up a HUGE win to get to (5-8). Seven wins can take the NFC East, and now The FTs just need to win two of their next 3 games. Easier said than done. Hosting Seattle Week 15…a likely loss. Hosting Carolina Week 16…could be a win. Week 17 at Philly could be for all the marbles. Washington could lose all three games, especially if Alex Smith is out Week 15 (or longer). We see Washington ending up (6-10) and not winning the NFC East…and that it came down to Week 17 at Philly, where they lose. But there’s definitely a path to them getting to (7-9) and winning the division. It’s not a given yet that Washington has this in the bag.
The 49ers have played the most brutal schedule of any team Weeks 5-14. They’ve sustained a ton of injuries (and lost Deebo this game) all year and then had their schedule bury them…and, yet, they still have wild card life. They have to win out. If they beat (at) Dallas this week, and then win a CRITICAL Week 16 at Arizona (which is possible)…they’d be (7-8) going into Week 17 vs. Seattle. Seven or eight wins could be the #7 seed. Winning out from here puts them in a strong spot for a playoff spot -- but winning (or losing) Week 16 at Arizona is really their season. We see the 49ers stumbling to (7-9) with (8-8) possible if Jimmy G. and Kittle can get back…but even if (7-9), they have some shot of being a #7 seed. This loss to Washington may bite them in a tiebreaker in the end if the FTs get to 7 wins and are in the wild card chase and not a division winner.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- If Alex Smith (8-19 for 57 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) is out for Washington this week, everything falls…
J.D. McKissic (11-68-0, 2-180-9/4) loses all his PPR juice.
Terry McLaurin (2-24-0/6), you have to play but you’ll probably regret it.
If Dwayne Haskins (7-12 for 51 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) starts -- it’s a boost to the Seattle-DST this week.
The one guy who has been working with either QB is Logan Thomas (6-43-0/7), who is suddenly a top 5 type TE. He is moving and looking like a real top NFL TE now. It looks like a light has come on, or something. Whatever it is – it looks terrific lately.
I think Smith is 60/40 to start this week, but that’s an early guess.
-- There was a QB change about to happen in the 4th-quarter of this game for the 49ers, but Nick Mullens (25-45 for 260 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) led a scoring drive to cut the lead to 8 pts and then C.J. Beathard stopped warming up on the sidelines.
The switch to CJB is close to happening…the leash is getting shorter on Mullens. It doesn’t change SF FF projections much except CJB is a better fantasy scorer, to me, than garbage-time Mullens.
-- I believe Raheem Mostert (14-65-0, 2-5-0/4) will miss this week. If so, Jeff Wilson (11-31-1) becomes the #1 splitting time with (probably) Jerick McKinnon…but maybe Tevin Coleman gets some touches…if he is still alive. Wilson would be in a prime spot for larger than normal touches for an SF RB if Mostert is out.
-- I would project that Antonio Gibson (DNP) will be out again this week with turf toe but the door’s not totally closed on a return.
-- You can tell many FFMers invested in Deebo Samuel (1-9-0)…anytime a WR gets hurt on his first touch and is gone for the game – that’s one of my guys. Everyone else’s WRs go off in a game and then get hurt with 5 minutes left in the game. My guys, 1st-play…done. Parris Campbell. Diontae Johnson 2-3x this year. Deebo here.
Brandon Aiyuk (10-119-0/16) inherits all of those juicy Deebo touches – Mullens was throwing to him like no one else existed in this game. Great set up vs. Dallas’s backup CB group this week.
Richie James (3-33-0/3) might be a sneaky deep roster league flyer for the week with Deebo gone and so much attention going on Aiyuk. Jordan Reed (2-13-0/5) might benefit as well.
-- Washington-DST is the talk of the week with two defensive scores in this game. Defensive scores are sweet, but random. The 49ers put some yards up against the FTs but the turnovers killed them. The fumbles just bounced Washington’s way.
I’m not anti-Washington-DST but I’m not totally convinced this is an elite unit yet…just a great front line and a lot of young players and/or holes everywhere else.
-- Everyone is talking WSH-DST, but the best defense in this game was the 49ers-DST. No offensive TDs allowed. Since they got Richard Sherman back, they really stifled the Rams Week 12. They had Buffalo flustered for a bit, but then yielded to that great offense…no crime in it. Then shutdown Washington here, as a top defense should. It’s a sneaky top 5-10 NFL defense with Sherman-Verrett as their CB-duo.
Week 15 they face the patchwork O-Line of the Dallas Cowboys and Andy Dalton. I like the 49ers-DST a lot here.
Snap Counts of Interest:
74 = Aiyuk
72 = Bourne
26 = R James
01 = Deebo
40 = Mostert
39 = J Wilson
02 = Coleman
00 = McKinnon
59 = Cam Sims
58 = McLaurin
23 = Stv Sims
41 = JD McKissic
30 = Barber
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Colts 44, Raiders 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game started out as ‘back-and-forth’…a quick 10-0 lead for Indy, but by mid-2nd-quarter it was 14-10 LV. The Colts led 20-14 at the half. It was a ball game.
From there, the Colts started to pull away. The Raiders were down 27-20 to start the 4th-quarter. Still a game. Then the Colts got up 34-20 and the Raiders started stalling, a tipped pass pick six for Indy with 5+ minutes left put it away. The Colts were the better team. The Raiders hung in as long as they could but were simply outmatched.
In response, the Raiders fired their defensive coordinator in Jon Gruden’s anger…odd to happen on a short week (they play TNF).
This loss might be a death blow to the Raiders wild card hopes. The Raiders have lost three of their last 4 (with a lucky last second win vs. the Jets) and are now (7-6) and fading. The Raiders need to win at least two of their final 3 games to get to 9 wins for playoff hopes – and one of those wins MUST be Week 16 v. Miami. We see the Raiders getting to (9-7) but losing to Miami…and the Raiders ending up (8-8) is very much in play as well. It all seems to lean towards the Raiders missing the playoffs. Strange for a team that almost beat KC twice…
Just like it was a deadly loss for LV, this was a big win for Indy…pretty much launches them into the playoffs as either AFC South champs or a wild card. The Colts are likely to win at least 11 games and wind up the AFC South champs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I want to say this is the breakout performance for Jonathan Taylor (20-150-2, 2-15-0/2), but I’m not feeling it. I’m not trying to be negative or contrarian for a gimmick. You know I get high and low whenever I see the need and beat the drum on it. I call it as I see it/I write as I sense it…as a guy watching all these games, scouting all these players in college – I’m watching, looking, searching constantly. I’m drunk with watching and analyzing these players.
I’ve imbibed a lot of Jonathan Taylor tape this season…and I’m just not ready to throw a ticker tape parade because of this game. I’m a huge fan, had a great scouting grade on him…I just haven’t seen the ‘it’ factor yet.
Here’s a few of my notes/thoughts on the situation right now…
1) Weird flow to this game…and Frank Reich’s RBBC flow worries me. Taylor exploded out of the gates…like 6-7 touches on the 1st-drive, 62 yards total. Taylor WAS the drive with chunk plays (runs, and a pass play). Then he was out of the game in the red zone as Indy scored the first TD of the game…with Taylor watching from the sidelines.
Then he wasn’t in to start the next drive…he just kinda disappeared sprinkling in and out of the game like he was a random chump. Later in the game he popped a 62-yarder that was quite impressive – he had a wide-open hole and ran through it (which isn’t that impressive, per se…with such an open space to run) but the impressive part was he just hit the accelerator and was gone. He outran 3-4 LBs and DBs in hot pursuit…and hit paydirt/a TD.
Basically, Taylor dominated the first drive…then was gone for a while…then later his a 62-yard homerun ball…that was it. Two drives he mattered, all the other ones not really.
Does Ezekiel Elliott (prior to 2020) or Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley or Dalvin Cook get treated like this?
2) All that said…this is two bigger games in a row for Taylor output. I think we can have FF confidence Week 15 but doesn’t be totally shocked if he’s rotating like a chump again.
3) On tape, he looks good…but also looks like 25-35 other good RBs I watch all week. I would not say Taylor looks like ‘wow’. I am expecting ‘wow’ from him, and I don’t see it yet. I see really good, promising, maybe ‘wow’ if he stayed in the game to chop away at defenses throughout the game – but I’ve just not seen ‘it’ yet.
Just some examples…Damien Harris looks like a better talent, to me. Darrell Henderson looks better as a runner, to me. Ronald Jones, ditto. Guys (examples) we don’t think would be in Taylor’s class.
It all comes down to ‘usage’ to delineate them.
-- Taylor looks as good as Josh Jacobs (13-49-0, 3-25-0/5) has in the NFL. That’s a good comp…Taylor probably a step better but they’re close enough.
The difference being – Josh Jacobs is worshipped by Jon Gruden. While Frank Reich could probably care less if Taylor was active, and he probably wishes Marlon Mack was still there.
-- Thank you once again, T.Y. Hilton (5-86-2/7)!
I built many 2020 FF teams on Hilton-Marvin Jones-Diontae as ‘WRs taken later’ and Hilton-Marvin died right away to start the season…but now they’re like two top 10-15 WR fantasy producers over the past 4-5 weeks. NOW they are popping…after we all cut them/moved on.
Thanks for nothing.
Hilton and Jones did nothing early on, while Diontae shined. Now Hilton-Jones are rising…and Diontae can’t catch anything.
Isn’t fantasy football fun?
The randomness, the twists and turns – it’s the secret ingredient that makes this game great. Where else can you have this type of day-to-day engagement and constant puzzles to figure out?
Your bizarre thoughts/mental anguish that you can subdue fantasy football sit/starts/trades on every player for every single week without fail, and then when you don’t you throw a temper tantrum – that’s on you. You wish you had T.Y. Hilton now.
You will not win every hand of poker dealt…nor every round of blackjack…nor time every stock purchase you make just right – but you do expect to absolutely predict football results without error every week.
Why do you do this to yourself?
Oh, and T.Y. Hilton is a great start Week 15 vs. Houston with no secondary to speak of.
What happened when you stayed patient after a slow start to the 2020 season (slow, in part due to TYH and Marvin)? Your teams started popping as we went. We fixed the glitch as we went.
Patience is a virtue.
My scouting is a skill.
Your decisions to act off my scouting and what your eyes see watching games = you’re a good ‘player’ of the game’. But you can’t be perfect. Sometimes injuries and bad matchup weeks/schedules get us all, no matter how great the planning…or a toss-up on player A or B, and you go A and then B goes nuts with scoring on your bench. It’s a hard bucking bronco to break, this thing called fantasy football.
-- I don’t want to talk about Colts TEs, but Jack Doyle (3-44-0/3) led the TE-trio in snaps and targets.
It’s not worth mentioning, really. Except to note every few weeks it’s a different Colts TE perking up. Trey Burton is now dead. Next week, he might score two TDs. Too hard to predict the Colts TE trend.
The best bet on it = don’t even mess with Colts TEs for FF in 2020.
-- Nelson Agholor (5-100-1/9) now has 7 TDs this season. He had 7 TDs total in 2018 and 2019 in 27 games played.
The #36 non-PPR WR in PPG. #28 non-PPR WR in raw total FF points.
Just noting – Bryan Edwards is better than Nelson Agholor, and at worst he’ll get those types of numbers in the future when Agholor is gone or just replaces him in targeting – but I think Edwards is going to best the Agholor 2020 numbers in the years to come.
Have to wait until 2021 to see, hopefully 2021. Don’t lose faith just yet in BEdw…if Agholor can do this, how much better will Edwards do? I’m going to go into some cheap/buy-mode on Edwards in dynasty this offseason.
-- The Colts got a pick six to make the DST scoring look good, but it was heading towards trouble before that. The Colts D has allowed 26 or more points in a game in three of their last 4 games. They are not a shutdown/high-end defense.
Shaky but plausible vs. Houston this week. The Texans were the one team in the Colts’ last four games NOT to have hit 26+ but remember…Houston had 20 points and were on the goal line to hit 27/win that game when a bad center exchange fumble ruined everything. Should have been four games in-a-row allowing 26+ points in a game.
Snap Counts of Interest:
29 = Jacobs
21 = Richard
19 = Booker
45 = Agholor
41 = Ruggs
38 = Renfrow
20 = Bry Edwards
34 = J Taylor
22 = Hines
06 = Wilkins
