R.C. Fischer

FFM

03 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Titans 34, Colts 31 OT

A big win fir the Titans, but then the giant casualty from this game as well – the loss of the 2021 league MVP (in my book), Derrick Henry. Had the Colts won this game, and Tennessee still lost Henry – we’d all be talking about the Colts as the odds-on favorite to win the AFC South from here, but the Titans got the W, so they take a 3-game lead in the division.

I mean, I could try and talk about this game play/action in detail, but it was really two teams led by top NFL running backs trying to out-do each other with mediocre defenses and mediocre QB play, and the one team (the Colts) having the worse QB and defense among them lost because of their unclutch QB making inexplicable throws for turnovers in key spots.

Really, as I watched this back, the Colts were lucky to be in this…if it wasn’t for Michael Pittman making miracle catches and Henry being hindered (now we know why), the Titans would have cruised to victory. The Titans spotted the Colts a 14-0 lead due to bad, unlucky play early, and they staved off a potential quick 21-0 deficit with a defensive stand, and then Tennessee just marched back in it and won it – the better team won, for sure.

Tennessee is now (6-2), but they go from ‘Is this is the best team in the AFC?’ to ‘Can Tennessee hold on to get to the playoffs and get Henry back?’ The schedule says they will win 10-11 games regardless of the Henry injury, because of any easy schedule.

Indy is now (3-5) with not as easy a schedule ahead. We see them winning their next two (maybe) to get to (5-5), and putting pressure on the Titans, but then finishing with 9 wins and fighting for a wild card.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Everything Fantasy from this game revolves around Derrick Henry (28-68-0), so let’s go through his injury and all the contenders to his throne of touches.

Henry broke a bone on the pinky toe side of his foot (a Jones fracture) and it’s in a somewhat precarious position in the foot and what it’s connected to…so, he will need all of the minimum 8-weeks of recovery, and then probably 1-2 weeks of rehab to get back into playing shape – which is just in time for the playoffs.

There’s almost 0% chance he makes a way faster, miracle recovery and gets back like Week 14-15. It’s not totally impossible but with this injury you cannot afford to risk a setback/rebreak…and if the schedule will allow Tennessee to get to the playoffs anyway, there’s no need to rush him back and risk not having him for the playoffs. Tennessee can win it all with a healthy Derrick Henry, so they don’t care if they’re a wild card…they just need Henry healthy.

So, who is going to pick up the slack here in the backfield? My hierarchy of options…

1) Jeremy McNichols

JMN entered the league as a 214-pound back who could run in the 4.4s with sub-7.00 three-cone…and a guy who was a TD machine at Boise State. He projected as a legit NFL RB prospect with nice size and movement, and college production…and he was a 5th-round pick in 2017.

Things didn't go as planned once he hit the NFL. He was deemed immature and football-dumb and was cut his rookie season by Tampa Bay. The 49ers quickly scooped him up and he got to the active roster for a couple of games/touches. The 49ers then cut him before the 2018 season 53-man roster time.

The Colts immediately signed him Sept. 2018 and he was up and off the roster for a few weeks, played some snaps in a game and was cut. Soon after, Denver signed him to their practice squad in Oct. 2018. In Dec. 2018, the Titans poached him off the Broncos practice squad – a mix of desperation and some newfound respect, at least. He never played a snap for the Titans in 2018.

In 2019, McNichols was cut again before the 53-man roster was announced by the Titans. A few months later, the Bears added him to the practice squad, then cut him a month after. Jacksonville then added him a few weeks later…then cut him in May 2020.

August 2020, Tennessee brought him in for a tryout with and he was signed…then cut…then signed back and it’s been a roller coaster for him in Tennessee, but he’s been fully embraced by the Titans since Week 1 of 2020 through to today on their main roster playing snaps in all games.

McNichols has never been a highly sought after ‘answer’ by Tennessee, he’s just always hung around and been ‘available’ and has ingratiated his way with Mike Vrabel enough to stick around – they’ve tried to move away from him with Darrynton Evans, but Evans has failed to live up to the hype (and is on IR the rest of the season). McNichols has carved out a role as ‘pass catcher’ in the hurry up offense.

Watching all McNichols’ plays from 2021 (video below), I see a capable enough guy in a pinch: He’s in great shape, really leaned his muscle (down to 205 from 215 as a rookie)…he's a tough runner willing to smash into would-be tacklers. He’s fast enough, and average in agility/cut-ability. He’s a very reliable pass catcher, an ace in the screen game (he caught 70.6% of his passes last season, and 77.8% this season to date).

I look at this sudden McNichols situation as – if Myles Gaskin can be competent, then McNichols with a similar (or better, I think) body/athleticism can work in a pinch as well. His ceiling is Myles Gaskin…10-15 carries, occasional TD, 3-5 catches a game but sometimes 7+ catches. His floor is = random pass catcher and 1-3 carries a game.

Tennessee will likely lean on Ryan Tannehill more and move away from an interior run game…so, McNichols will likely be (at a minimum) peak James White output…a really nice PPR back for Fantasy.

I’m sure Adrian Peterson or D’Onta Foreman will take short yardage and goal line touches away, but McNichols getting a lot of work between the 20s. McNichols will be a solid RB2 in PPR…more RB3 in non-PPR.

Here’s all his work this season, every touch:

Weeks 1-4: https://youtu.be/tw5JItF7CU0

Weeks 5-8: https://youtu.be/VrgTFY53NT0

2) Adrian Peterson

Peterson was still grinding at age 35 last season for Detroit…604 rush yards, 3.9 ypc, 7 rush TDs. He is a veteran runner and still seems to have the passion. You can never write him off, but this Tennessee O-Line isn’t great with Derrick Henry gone, so AP will likely be a 10 +/- carry a game split with McNichols right away.

An RB3 for PPR, a possible RB2 for non-PPR with a TD surge…maybe.

What we don’t know is…AP’s legs could be fully out-of-juice and he fails fast, and the Titans have to go elsewhere.

3) D’Onta Foreman

If the Titans do fail fast with AP, then Foreman has a chance to come in to play that same role – the big bruiser/Henry-a-like. He’s 6’1/235+ and was taking work/carries over Jeremy McNichols last season for a stretch.

Foreman has all the size and talent of an NFL lead back…good hands for his size too, but he’s never really been able to put it all together. He has history with this coaching staff, and now he’s back with a shot if the door opens up.

Foreman is like if Ronald Jones could catch passes… https://youtu.be/IIjQKhFeUXA

The one guy who could wake up out of this and become a star (of the moment) out of nowhere…is Foreman.

4) Khari Blasingame

Was a big tailback in college and has surprising athleticism for his 240+ pound size. He was undrafted into the league, but then pushed to bulk up to be a fullback and that’s what he’s been in the NFL. But he could take a few power carries if it was needed…but likely AP for sure first chance, and then Foreman most likely are ahead of Blasingame for touches here.

You wouldn’t hate this action: https://youtu.be/1anFw3sMDdQ

5) Dontrell Hilliard

Isn’t a bad little player but is just a warm body behind McNichols in case JMN goes down.

 -- Let’s see how good Ryan Tannehill (23-33 for 265 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs, 2-26-0) really is now…without the Derrick Henry crutch to lean on.

The only time Tannehill has been without Henry was Week 16 of 2019 season, a key game for Tennessee vs. a very good New Orleans team…and Tannehill threw for 272 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, rushed for 8 yards as Dion Lewis ran the ball 15 times and Dalyn Dawkins ran it 9 times…if that gives you an idea of where Vrabel might go without Henry, at least at first – that being OK with smaller scat backs taking a workload. Only this time, it’s many games without Henry to deal with. So, we might be able to predict Week 9 pretty well with McNichols having to take a lot of touches…but who knows about Week 13-14-15-16 etc.

I’m interested to see how Tannehill does, but I think it will be pretty good…he’s a pretty savvy QB and if Mike White and Cooper Rush are crushing it – Tannehill can outdo them.

 -- Marlon Mack (DNP) was thought to be traded by the deadline…but trades don’t usually happen in the NFL. So, he’s ‘stuck’ in Indy.

Before you move on from him, just note… If Jonathan Taylor got hurt like Derrick Henry/gone for the year hurt…then Marlon Mack would be the best waiver wire RB pickup of the last several weeks – the lead guy behind a good run game O-Line.

He’s worth that last roster spot gamble that random RB injury hits Indy.

 -- Michael Pittman (10-86-2/15) has become a star right before our eyes…a legit WR1 for FF. It’s literally all Carson Wentz looks for -- and even double and triple covered Pittman makes plays. I hope you jumped on this a few weeks ago when we rang the alarm before he really fully popped, but if not…buy on any weakness…i.e. not this week after a 2 TD event.

Just know this isn’t just good WR in a good spot so FF numbers happen…this guy is going elite action/ability. A star is born.

 -- I thought Mo Alie Cox (0-0-0/4) was going to be a TD guy last week…but he didn’t even get a catch. Still 4 TDs in his last five games. He’s gonna be an 8-10 TD guy with low targeting at TE this season. Use in good matchups as needed.

 -- The Tennessee Titans-DST is trying to peek through to becoming more plausible. They have a lot of young talent but dealing with injuries and inexperience, but I see some goodness trying to break through. We’re not there yet but be careful getting too excited when you see your opposing WR matched up with them and your FF App declares it a great matchup. It might not be so now. Remember, they held the Chiefs to 3 points two weeks ago.

Snap Counts of Interest:

59 = J Taylor

25 = Hines

50 = Doyle

39 = Alie-Cox

10 = Granson

54 = Henry

17 = McNichols

35 = Pruitt

20 = Firkser

67 = AJ Brown

48 = Marcus Johnson

31 = Rogers

23 = Westbrook-Ikhine

05 = J Reynolds

Ross Jacobs

FFM

03 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Rams 38, Texans 22

Don't be fooled by the final score being only 16 points. This was as one-sided a beatdown as I've seen this year. The Rams were up 38-0 with 8 minutes left before the Texans scored 22 in a flurry. The first score was a nice drive capped off by a Burkhead TD. Then they got the ball back quickly and hit Brandin Cooks for a 45 yard score. After that they recovered an onside kick and found Brevin Jordan for the final TD.

I'm not sure what the point was of all that activity because there was clearly not enough time to win the game, but the stupidity of NFL coaches knows no bounds. You think they were building morale by scoring garbage time points on a team that doesn't care? Good luck with that. Probably should have thought of morale before you pissed off your star QB so badly that he refused to play for you any longer. I digress.

It's impossible in these situations to take any larger conclusions away. The Texans are not exactly a great measuring stick to find out just how good the Rams might be. LA has been beating down nearly everyone they've played, but when you look at who they've beaten it's not exactly an impressive list outside of whipping the Bucs one week.

I would have said we would find out more about them this upcoming week, but Derrick Henry is suddenly gone from the Titans which completely changes the dynamic.

My best guess is that the Rams are lumped in a group with the Cowboys and Bucs for next best team in the NFC behind the Cardinals. All three have incredible offenses averaging north of 30 points per game, and all three have decent defenses. The Rams seem to have maybe a little bit better defense than the other two but also a slightly worse offense to balance it out. I don't include the Packers in this conversation yet because I think their offense is much worse than the other three (24 ppg which is a full TD worse than the others).

But even though I think the Rams are the 2nd best team in their own division, the Cardinals just took a hit with a Kyler Murray injury. We still don't know the extent of it, but my best guess is he needs a week or two to fully heal. That could be just enough of a crack for the Rams to sneak the division from them. This is going to be a tight race, and the Rams almost certainly have to win the rematch game in December to have a chance. But the stakes are huge as the winner probably gets the 1st or 2nd seed while the loser will be 5th. That makes a huge difference in their Superbowl chances.

Fantasy Notes

--Ok I have to admit something. I had Matt Stafford (21-32 for 305 yards, 3 TD/0 INT) ranked as the 5th best QB on my board for fantasy this year because I figured McVay would set out to prove himself right by throwing the ball all over the lot, and that's been 100% true. It's also why I had Cooper Kupp (7-115-1/9) as my 5th best WR and drafted him on all my teams.

BUT I did not think that Stafford would actually be a great real life QB for this team and propel the Rams to a lot of wins. My admission? He's really, really good. This offense is a joy to watch. They are functioning at an incredible level. RC keeps complaining every week about how Kupp is never covered...well that's because you can't cover him. There are too many threats to be able to double him all the time and the routes he's running chef's kiss*.

There were several times in this game where Stafford threw the ball and Kupp still had his back turned to the line of scrimmage. He would make a move, turn, and the ball was right there in his hands. You can't cover it. There's simply no way, not when Stafford throws it that early. It's the exact same thing that Rodgers does with Davante, and it's the same thing Peyton did with Harrison. This connection is on another level and won't be slowed. The best thing defensive coordinators could try is to jam Kupp at the line, but there are ways to beat that too.

Now this begs the question: was Goff actually the problem? And my answer is...at least partially. Goff definitely doesn't have the arm strength that Stafford can threaten the field with. That lets Stafford operate with more space. But we've seen Goff run high level progressions and route concepts before. He's also been pretty darn good in Detroit despite a horrendous surrounding cast. He didn't just forget how to play football over his last two years in Detroit.

That makes me think that McVay was at least a little to blame for Goff's decline. I think he got frustrated with some things and his confidence in Goff began to decline. As his confidence left, he started trying to micromanage Goff more and more which led to more problems. It's the same thing we saw happen with Trubisky in Chicago and is currently happening to Hurts in Philadelphia. Coaches can and do unintentionally destroy some of these QB's by how they manage them.

It also means that the Lions were indeed wasting a lot of Stafford's ability all these years. Now I'm not saying that Stafford should be included in the elite group with Rodgers, Brady, Russell, and Mahomes (who I'm starting to have some questions about) because it seems like he can't overcome subpar surroundings. He needs a talented offense around him, and he needs a coach that knows how to put all the pieces together. But he's certainly very good, and this offense is firing on all cylinders now.

--Because the passing game is functioning so well, it's opening up things for Darrell Henderson (14-90-1) in the run game. He's played 7 games this year and is averaging 15.7 carries, 72.4 yards, 1 TD, 2.3 catches, and 20 yards yards receiving per game (17.5 ppg...the 11th best ppr RB on the year).

--Kupp is on a whole other level, but after him the receivers are a mixed bag. Robert Woods (3-35-1/9, 3-22-1) had another good fantasy day that was saved by his 2 TD's, but he doesn't look like he's clicking with Stafford yet. The connection isn't smooth. Everything else is functioning so well that I think Woods will ultimately finish as a lower WR2 just by circumstance.

--The guy that looks more important to the offense to me is Van Jefferson (3-88-0/6). It's not going to work as well for fantasy as Woods will, but he's more important to the Rams offense. Jefferson is the deep threat and his speed is helping to open everything up because teams know that Stafford can hit him deep at any time (like he did in this game). Coordinators live in fear of getting beat deep so they constantly leave two safeties way back, and of course Kupp just chews that up all day long.

--Another guy got involved here that was a bit of a surprise to see. Rookie Ben Skowronek (3-30-0/3) was in late and taking some passes for decent gains. He's a big guy at 6'3” 220 lbs and moves fairly well for his size. I don't think he's fast enough to really succeed as a WR long term, but if he could somehow add some weight and convert to TE we might have something. Trouble is RC and I aren't sure his frame can handle any more weight. He might be stuck in that tweener WR/TE range and not work out at either position.

--Another week, another bad loss, yet another not bad performance from Davis Mills (29-38 for 310, 2 TD/1 INT). He was put in a horrible situation this year and has responded splendidly. I think I'd rather have him than Mac Jones at this point. He'll be replaced by Tyrod Taylor as soon as he's healthy, but Mills might actually be a decent QB for this team the next 2-3 years if they can rebuild.

--The Houston backfield is tough to figure out this week. They got blown out so quickly that running was all but impossible. My take on it is this: I think David Johnson is the starter and will split 60-40 or so with Phillip Lindsay. Rex Burkhead will be the third back in and probably vulture some TD's (which there won't be much of anyways) and some receiving work, and Scottie Phillips is a distant fourth.

I know they all took similar carries here, but Johnson and Lindsay were pulled from the game once it got out of hand, and Burkhead and Phillips took the remaining touches. Houston will be down nearly every week but probably not getting blown out this badly. DJ, in particular, could be a really sneaky DFS play against a bad Miami run defense this week.

--The Houston passing game is still all Brandin Cooks (6-83-1/6) and it's working for ppr. Ride it if you have it. Nico Collins (4-55-0/4) has developed into the #2 for now. I don't see anything magical emerging from him yet.

--Rookie TE Brevin Jordan (3-41-1/4) made his debut and looked ok in garbage time, nothing special. I'd rather have either of the other two Houston TE's over him as a talent. His TD was the last of the game, and he was left wide open for an easy pitch and catch. He's still the backup to Jordan Akins for now.

IDP Notes

--Rookie Ernest Jones (9 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 1 tfl, 1 pd) got his first full-time start of the year and responded with a nice IDP performance. I didn't see too much after watching him though. Because the Rams got up so early, Houston went into pass-only mode and Jones was able to drift around in coverage and come up for easy tackles. He honestly looked a little lost at times. He moves around well enough. Don't think he's all that different from the guy he replaced, Kenny Young.

--Of course the biggest IDP news here was the trade for Von Miller. It certainly sounds scary on paper. Miller and Aaron Donald attacking the line together with Jalen Ramsey patrolling behind them. That's some serious firepower.

I actually like this move for the Rams. They haven't used their draft picks well anyways and weren't likely to find a Von Miller in the 2nd or 3rd rounds of the draft. They have a Superbowl window right now. Their one big weakness on defense was getting pressure from someone other than Donald, and they fixed that here. Who cares about the salary cap? They'll figure that out later.

Snap Counts of Interest

58 = Cooper Kupp

58 = Robert Woods

56 = Van Jefferson

20 = Ben Skowronek

41 = Darrell Henderson

20 = Sony Michel

54 = Brandin Cooks

39 = Danny Amendola

39 = Nico Collins

25 = Chris Conley

30 = Rex Burkhead

15 = Scottie Phillips

11 = David Johnson

8 = Phillip Lindsay

39 = Jordan Akins

15 = Brevin Jordan

R.C. Fischer

FFM

03 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Eagles 44, Lions 6

I’m pretty sure that ‘no explanation’ is required for this one… The Lions had the first chance to score in the game, missed their field goal, and then watched Philly go 41 straight points before Detroit would score in garbage time in an eventual 44-6 loss.

The players love Dan Campbell!! The fans love Dan Campbell!! The fans must be loving him from afar, because they weren’t at a half+ empty Lions home game…some of them in attendance wearing bags over their heads to show how much they love Campbell. You can give all the emotional press conferences you want, but without wins…eventually, the fans…and the players, kinda give up. I’m sure Detroit will win a game somehow this season, but probably only 1-2.

The Lions have been jipped out of a few wins by the football gods this season, but now the whole Campbell thing has jumped the shark and exposed the fact that they have not a lot of talent on the roster, their problems turbocharged by an injury-riddled O-Line (their strength turned weakness).

By beating the sad Lions, the Eagles are now fixed (according to the fans and media). We put away the ‘bench Jalen Hurts’ and ‘Sirianni is one and done’ talk away until their next loss…this week. The Eagles are now (3-5), and if they can get by the Chargers this week, then the schedule flips in their favor ahead – and they can make a wild card run. They will likely flounder the opportunity and finish with 6-7 wins in the end.

My main reason to get to study this game was to get a feel for this Eagles run game, post-Miles Sanders. So, we’ll start there…

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Boston Scott (12-60-2, 0-0-0/1) was the definitive #1 back here…started right out of the gates, played every play the entire 1st-quarter. He’s the back to own for the time Sanders is out, and then he’ll be the 80/20 20% sidekick with Sanders after that.

Boston Scott is really good…the best back on the Eagles roster, the East Coast Austin Ekeler. And since the Eagles are playing LAC this week, you can compare and contrast – but more importantly the Chargers have the worst run defense in the world right now, so this should be a hot game for Scott.

Jordan Howard (12-57-2, 0-0-0/1) was the 2nd back in…and he was his usual hammering, smart running self. He will be the #2 again this week facing LAC. I suspect he’ll see +/- 10 carries against LAC…with a shot at a TD.

When Sanders returns, Howard goes back to being a nobody…possibly cut and claimed by another before the Eagles can stuff him back on the practice squad.

Kenneth Gainwell (13-27-0) just lost all his credibility/value in Fantasy…expected to be ‘the guy’ off the Sanders injury and ran as the #3 back…and then only in mop up time. RIP Kenneth Gainwell, for now. Enjoy returning kicks and not playing on offense when Sanders returns.

 -- Jalen Hurts (9-14 for 103 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 7-71-0) staved off more ‘benching’ talk with a ‘big’ win over Detroit this week. Another loss will open the ‘benching’ talk back up…two losses in a row might force the change to happen. The schedule from here is pretty favorable (especially Week 13 on), so a fall might not come…unless they lose two/three-in-a-row somewhere in Wks 9-12 with LAC, at DEN, NO, at NYG.

Hurts had a bad FF game result here, but note he was sniffing 2-3 rushing TDs like usual…but he fell just short and set up easy TD runs for Scott and Howard.

 -- Just a note for nothing…

Jared Goff (25-34 for 222 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) is taking a lot of heat for the Detroit losses, as QBs tend to have happen, but just note – he is playing about as well as you could expect under the circumstances.

An injury ravaged O-Line, no time to throw most plays, and the worst WR group in the NFL. What’s he supposed to do? He is fighting and making some good throws under vast pressure on most drop backs.

 -- We got to see some late-game work from two young Detroit RBs…

Godwin Igwebuike (3-18-0, 3-40-0/3) is a converted SAF to RB this offseason, and he continues to progress from his solid preseason showing. He’s no threat to healthy Jamaal Williams, but he’d work in a pinch if Jamaal and Swift went down. He’s like a raw Damien Harris wannabe.

Rookie Jermar Jefferson (2-6-1, 4-23-0/4) looked capable as well in his first ‘real’ action. He’d probably see more of the rushing work or split it with Igwebuike if both Jamaal-Swift went down. He is like a slower version of Dalvin Cook.

 -- Kalif Raymond (0-0-0/1) is the #1 WR on this team…and got all of one target in this game? He was the only WR the Eagles cared about, and it was over before it got started. Raymond is a WR3 flyer on volume hopes, but every 2-3 weeks has total dud games.

 -- Since the Zach Ertz trade…

4.5 rec. (6.0 targets), 71.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game = Goedert

3.0 rec. (6.0 targets), 38.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game = DeVonta Smith

Smith has not scored a TD since Week and has been under 33 yards in a game in four of his last 7 games…with the no TDs.

 -- Only one Eagles defender played more than 75% of the defensive snaps…it was SAF Marcus Epps (9 tackles, 1 PD),

Epps has started the past two games and has averaged 10.0 tackles, 0.5 PDs while playing 100% of the snaps.

-- The Eagles-DST schedule Week 10 on, in terms of starting QB and NFL rank in NFL PPG...

Week 11 = Taysom/Siemian (#10)

Week 12 = Dan Jones (#27)

Week 13 = Z Wilson (#32)

Week 14 = BYE

Week 15 = Heinicke (#21)

Week 16 = Dan Jones (#27)

Week 17 = Heinicke (#21)

‍

It's a decent Eagles-DST and if they stay in the playoff race, this is quite a great schedule stretch.

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Snap Counts of Interest:

49 = Raymond

45 = St. Brown

45 = Trinity Benson…and not one target

16 = Hodge

44 = Swift

11 = Igwebuike

11 = J Jefferson

44 = DeV Smith

32 = Ward

12 = Reagor

04 = Arcega-Whiteside

R.C. Fischer

FFM

02 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Chiefs 20, Giants 17

Well, if you were hoping to tune into MNF to see the Chiefs offense get back on track and delight your senses and/or give you confidence in them going forward – then you were left lacking in this game. Not only lacking, but probably you’re more worried now than you were going into it.

Credit the Giants, my new favorite ‘team of the future’…they have a very good defense and defensive coordinator. But also credit the Chiefs – they came into this game looking the worse they ever have in the Mahomes era, and they brought those past few games’ struggles with them to this game. If Daniel Jones wasn’t such a terrible QB in crunch time, prime time, money time…the Giants might have won this. If the Giants didn’t have half their receivers out with injury, they might have won this. If Mike White was at QB for NYG, they might have won this.

KC jumped on the Giants on the first drive but ended up getting a pick in the end zone to end the drive. KC then picked Daniel Jones right after, which allowed KC a short field to go in and score to take a 7-0 lead -- but then KC struggled from there as the Giants answered every punch with a punch back. It was a quality loss for NYG…but a ‘loss’, nonetheless. With the semi-shocking Dallas win and this tough loss, the division title is off the table for the (2-6) Giants…four games out of first in the NFC East. They are only two games out of the last wild card spot (CAR) and are set to get all their weapons back the next two weeks – so, as desperate as it feels, they are a win away from only being a game out (if CAR loses Week 9). There’s a path to nine wins here, but it all depends on getting Barkley back, and Golladay and Andrew Thomas. A must-win Week 9 hosting Las Vegas…a winnable game.

The Chiefs are now (4-4) and back in the AFC West race. Week 10 at Las Vegas is going to be huge for the AFC West…and I don’t know if KC will be a favorite in that or not, so buckle up. KC could very easily lose it’s next three games and freefall out of the playoffs (GB, at LV, DAL the next three games).

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- First off, I know everyone wants to know -- Who the H is Derrick Gore (11-48-1, 0-0-0/0)?

When I first saw him get a touch in this game, I thought (like many) it was Frank Gore…it didn’t compute otherwise. I know every player…but Derrick Gore, I did not know or scout or care about and our computer scouting models weren’t interested in him in college either.

Gore started out in the JUCO ranks but then made it to Alabama as a walk on. He was a little used for the Crimson Tide but did get 9 carries in two seasons/9 games at Alabama 2015-2016. He then transferred to Louisiana-Monroe and was the main back in 2017 and 2018, but had low output in a running QB-offense where Gore barely led the team in rushing with 585 yards in 12 games, and just 3.6 ypc in 2017 and then again in 2018 with 662 yards in 12 games, and a better 5.1 ypc and 6 TDs.

He had an unimpressive round of Pro Day numbers as well…

5’9”/206

4.63 40-time, 1.64 10-yard

7.14 three-cone, 4.32 shuttle

23 bench reps, 34” vertical, 9’6” broad

Gore went undrafted and worked with the Chargers on their practice squad before winding up on KC’s practice squad. He was elevated to the main roster a few weeks ago and Week 8 MNF was his first time to shine, and he made the most of it – rushing for a TD and looking like a solid NFL RB.

Gore is like a smaller D’Ernest Johnson…grinder, below-average athlete on paper, but plays faster and has a nice stop-start ability to make people miss/change directions. Just a randomly capable RB.

He split time with Darrel Williams (13-49-0, 6-61-0/6) but was the lesser of the two in snaps (by a lot). When Clyde Edwards-Helaire returns, Gore will fall to a #3 back…possibly getting Jerick McKinnon cut to make room, but it may be Gore back to the practice squad.

I know Gore scored a TD on cable television, so the media is going to fall in love like they did with D’Ernest, but his only value right now is if CEH stays out and Williams goes down next week, and Gore has to take over for a week. When everyone is healthy and accounted for, Gore is the #3-4 back here. Nice little grinder, but limited upside and a blocked path to major touches. I wish it weren’t the case, but it is. He’s the new Charcandrick West – if everyone else in the KC backfield gets hurt, then call me.

 -- I needed Kadarius Toney (4-26-0/5, 1-1 passing for 19 yds) to have a game last night to steal some extra FF wins. I didn’t get it.

The Giants took the field and…and…no Toney on the opening snap…or the next one…or the next one…not in for the entire (quick) first series. Not in on the 2nd series. At that point, I knew I was toast in Toney-need spots. I didn’t think he should be pushed back so fast given his ankle, his youth, and Dallas winning the night before. OK, it was stupid for me trying to play Toney on MNF just because rumor was -- he was going to play…and now he’s not.

…and then he’s in for a play on the 3rd-series as a decoy.

WTF?

…and then he’s out.

…and then he comes back in for a trick play pass?

…and then he’s out.

If he’s so hurt, why is he playing now? Maybe just to be a decoy because he had not run a pass pattern the whole 1st-quarter he was in for a handful of plays.

Then, in the 2nd-quarter…he runs a real pass route. If he is good enough to run routes…why is he in the game only every 3-4 plays? John Ross and Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard were doing nothing but sucking…in this crucial game, if Toney can go…why isn’t he going?

Then, Dante Pettis got hurt and suddenly I see Toney returning punts? WTF? I thought this guy was too hurt to play?

At that point I realized… Toney wasn’t being managed for his ankle. He was just ‘not a starter’ for Joe Judge. I mean, of all the things in the world…season on the line…you’re in a battle with a dangerous KC team at their place on a Monday night, with your offense flailing away -- and you have access to your best player/weapon and you don’t use him for all you got? I’d buy they wanted to be smart with him…until they threw his ass out there to return a punt, for which he got hit at his feet/ankle (coincidentally?) in a way that I thought he was going to be done…but he just got up and went to the sidelines, because he’s not a starter…gotta get that John Ross train moving, I guess.

Then Toney started catching passes and being doubled over by a safety – because Kansas City knows who the Giants’ best player is, but the Giants coaching staff does not.

Toney made a few plays in this game, but you could see he was not 100% but more like a fine 80-90%. He helps the offense…then I see him holding his wrist in pain and is taken back to the locker room in the 4th-quarter. I’m thinking…I’m done for getting Toney FF points.

Then like a Willis Reed rising from the ashes, the next series, I see #89/Toney? Maybe, I got a shot!? Toney never touches the ball in the 4th-quarter, and the Giants lose.

This game will bring Toney’s value down a little more. We keep moving weeks further away from when he had that showcase debut game against Dallas. Toney did nothing to draw attention to himself, but he will show low snaps, low output/targets and people’s lust level will drop a bit more.

I think you wait for WED-THU for him to be limited in practice. Let it come out (maybe) that he’s not a starter that he’s a rookie ‘still getting it’ and maybe even doesn’t play this week due to his wrist and ankle – his value is only going to melt a bit in his FF-owner’s eyes with every passing day he doesn’t do something amazing. You want in on this for Dynasty, but you don’t want to pay a lot because Toney is as likely to be bigger Tyreek Hill 2.0 as he is ‘acting a fool’ his way out of the league in short order.

 -- Toney might have to start, if he’s OK, this week because Sterling Shepard (4-25-0/7) got hurt…again. I could see Shep getting traded today, but he probably won’t fetch enough that NYG just wouldn’t let him go into free agency and just get a compensation pick.

Evan Engram (3-15-1/4) should be traded, because there are TE desperate buyers…like Green Bay. Ross Jacobs had the right take on an Engram-to-GB event…there’s no way Aaron Rodgers has any instant connection with Engram, since every pass he throws is to Davante Adams…and then randomly, less effectively to everyone else. Engram would be a bit player in GB, like he is for NYG – you sell Engram hot if and when he’s traded to GB.

We’ll evaluate all these trades in reports this week, but more pressingly go through them on tonight’s Video Q&A.

 -- Patrick Mahomes (29-48 for 275 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 3-10-0) looks nothing like the Mahomes of the past. Gone is the assassin that could find anyone anywhere on the field…downfield. He’s now laboring to find receivers open.

Since the Super Bowl, including the Super Bowl, Mahomes has been struggling in games as much as he is blowing through them of late. The Chargers made him look bad Week 4. Buffalo had zero issues with him Week 5. Tennessee crushed him in Week 7. The Giants handled him pretty well here. He got squashed in the Super Bowl.

I could feel the following statement in the live watch, and rewatch…I know it is true, I could football-feel it…

KC went right down the field and were about to score on the opening drive, but NYG picked a pass in the end zone to stop the drive. Then Dan Jones gave it right back, which then allowed KC a short field score 7-0…and I think the Giants defense was a little shell shocked at it all -- but because they are a good, tough defensive unit, with a very good D-C…the Giants bowed up and stopped the Chiefs from scoring three of the next 4 drives before halftime – and I could FEEL that the Giants were changing their game plan to not do the typical ‘go for all 4th-downs’ and ‘fake punts’ and whatever else desperate teams do because they believe they need to do everything clever to try and slay the dragon known as ‘the Chiefs’. I think about a quarter into this the Giants realized – Mahomes was human, sloppy, pressure-able and he was pressing to try to complete any pass…and they realized mid-1st-half that they no longer feared the boogeyman…not at all. And NYG played toe-to-toe, normal football flow with KC from there.

That’s where we are at with KC/Mahomes. No one is afraid anymore. This is a bad football team propped by Mahomes making wizard plays, but those plays aren’t there this year like they used to. I don’t know if he’s hurt. I don’t know if it’s the problematic O-Line. I don’t know if he’s got problems at home. I just see Mahomes isn’t the Mahomes of the past.

So, what do we FF-do?

You ride it out. You roll with Mahomes and hope he works out his issues…whether it’s the blocking, the coaching, the opponents, mental issues – you don’t get cute. You don’t get in a huff and trade him because ‘the league has figured him out’. You recognize he’s a super-talent, he didn’t forget how to play football all of a sudden…you go down with his ship – AND you go ‘buy low’ to try and save your (3-5), (2-6) season…go all-in on his rebound or die trying.

I’ll buy all your discounted frustration shares.

Also, credit the Giants defense…this is a really good DST and team of the future…if they can hold it together and get it healthy.

 -- KC adjusted their game plan, FINALLY, for their passing game struggles by doing what any idiot would have done 2-3-4-5-6 weeks ago…simple short passes to Tyreek Hill (12-94-1/18) and let him try and make plays. And it was working…until they get cute and start getting away from it, ultimately to come back to it.

Hill’s short game set up the deep game, and he had a couple shots deep…but Mahomes was either flushed from the pocket (happening a lot these days) or on one 50+ yard moneyball where Tyreek was 3+ yards open sprinting deep…Mahomes underthrew it and it was knocked away.

In the end, I think KC’s issues in the passing game are two-fold:

1) Eric Bieniemy is the worst offensive coordinator in football and has been all along…just like Matt Nagy was a terrible head coach but his one good debut season made everyone think otherwise. How an O-C coaches Mahomes downward is a mystery…a fire-able event, but it will never happen that Eric will be fired/held to task.

2) The trade for Orlando Brown to go to Left Tackle, a big, slow run blocker who is getting beat by speed on the blindside too much – that decision is killing the golden goose/Mahomes.

Mahomes' pocket time measured the past 4 years…

2018 = 2.4 seconds in the pocket before pressure

2019 = 2.5

2020 = 2.6

2021 = 1.9

That’s DAMNING…but fixable…hopefully. (thus, all the sudden short throws to Tyreek, and disappearing long balls)

This adjustment for the lack of blocking…good for Tyreek in PPR for catch counts, at least.

 -- Because Mahomes has limited time to throw and is pressing…Travis Kelce (4-27-0/7) is stumbling from the elite TE output down to pretty good, no longer ‘wow’.

Kelce has scored 1 TD in his past 6 games.

In half-PPR, Kelce is the #10 scoring PPG TE in Fantasy since Week 4.

He’s not a buy low or sell high, he…like Mahomes, is a ‘hold’. Buy low if you want to try and save a desperate season but people don’t let go of the notion of Kelce. FF-owners are starting to think Mahomes has been figured out, but they still think Kelce (and Waller) are elite.

 -- Eric Bieniemy was saying last week how they like how Josh Gordon (0-0-0/1) was progressing and that they have a plan for him. https://youtu.be/NpYEJx7PkWE

 -- Nick Bolton (11 tackles, 1 QB hit)…same old same old…70%+ of the snaps (not 100%) and double-digit tackles. 13.0 tackles per game his last two games.

He’s 12th in the NFL in total tackles. #11 in total solo tackles. #4 in total TFLs.

Snap Counts of Interest:

52 = Darrel Williams

16 = Gore

13 = McKinnon

62 = Tyreek

43 = Pringle

40 = Hardman

52 = Slayton

34 = Toney

24 = Collin J.

23 = Shepard

16 = Ross

R.C. Fischer

FFM

02 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Jets 34, Bengals 31

This was no fluke – this was the Jets smacking the Bengals down, a very good Bengals team.

And it wasn’t like it was a lot of fluky things that the Jets seized on…in fact, it was the opposite. NYJ raced right down the field opening drive and took a 7-0 lead. Then the Jets then turned the ball over 3 times in a short span – two tipped pass picks, and a fumble lost…allowing Cincy to crawl back in and take a 17-7 lead with under 2-minutes to the half. At that point, it seemed like the Bengals had righted the ship, seized control and were on their way. They weren’t…

Mike White drove the Jets right down the field on a beautiful hurry-up/2-minute drill long drive for a TD to close it to 17-14 CIN at the half. The Jets tied it 17-17 in the 3rd-quarter. Cincy took back the lead 24-17 and then 31-20 with 7+ minutes remaining, and it seemed over again, but the Jets scored two more TDs in a few minute span led by Mike White driving them down…and the Jets held on for the win.

The Bengals were shell shocked. They were definitely sleepwalking through this easy win (they thought) early on, but when they woke up and started fighting back…the Jets fought harder. The Bengals were beaten in every way this game. The kinda game that can derail a season…all Cincy momentum lost. Huge game hosting Cleveland next week will either re-propel them or send them into a tailspin. I’m not sure, after watching this, if Cincy just played a bad game and will fire back Week 9 and handle the Browns…or if this was a sign of the breakdown, and they become ‘the Bengals’ again…coming back to earth. I really am not sure…because pretty much nothing made sense in the NFL Week 8, which is why the product is so wonderful…and maddening.

The Jets are now (2-5)…two wins over playoff teams, TEN and CIN. If they beat Indy at Indy on TNF this week (9) then the Jets have a full scale QB controversy…they kinda already do…

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- All hail Mike White (37-45 for 405 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs)!  He won this game. A lot of screens, but also a lot of shredding the gaps with smart slants and timing passes. He played a terrific game. He’s not like some wheeler dealer looming passing star…he’s just another really capable NFL QB. He had/was like a better Mac Jones type of game – a lot of short slicing and dicing, but Cincy was helpless to stop it.

White wore the Bengals out with screen passes that Cincy never adjusted to…and when they tried to adjust, White would start going more downfield. It was so good, so efficient, that the Jets suddenly have a major issue…White looked 10x better running the offense than Zach Wilson. If Wilson could come back this week…they couldn’t/shouldn’t bench White after such a performance (and the Jets performances prior), but they probably would do that because it’s the NFL and ‘best man wins’ is a con they tell themselves. If they forced Wilson back in, then Wilson would be crucified if he jumped back in and lost big with turnovers, again. It may be terminal to his Jets career.

White will start Week 9 TNF at IND…if he wins that game, then the Jets have a MAJOR problem. If White wins again this week, then I bet Wilson would magically not get cleared as fast by the doctors for Week 10…

White’s two picks in this game…one was a pass that was a little off but hit receiver’s hands and led to a pick. The next a batted pass turned pick. He really didn’t throw too many bad passes…maybe 1 or 2 at the most. Very impressive. Way better shock-win start than Cooper Rush (who was fine too).

 -- White’s efficiency sprung the RBs to huge games in the passing game.

Michael Carter (15-77-1, 9-95-0/14) and Ty Johnson (4-15-0, 5-71-1/6) combined for 14 catches, 166 yards, and 1 TD on 20 targets in the passing game.

It’s a super smart plan…and I’ve been whining about it for 4+ weeks for Zach Wilson to simply checkdown to set up the big plays…but he never would. White did…and the Jets scored 34 points and won a game against a top defense. The game plan was perfect to protect/divert attention away from the bad O-Line, and it keeps the ball moving.

I expect we’ll see a repeat plan against Indy in Week 9…so Carter is a for-sure PPR play and Ty Johnson is a sleeper PPR option.

 -- Four WR notes…

1) Ja’Marr Chase (1-9-0, 3-32-1/9) didn’t have his best game, a couple of drops but you can count on the fact that the defense is starting to play him like he’s the main thing to shut down – which helps open up everything else.

He’s still not a great WR to me, but I am starting to see the speed/fear of the speed making defenses overcompensate on him and that allows the rest of the offense to flourish.

2) Jamison Crowder (8-84-0/9) got a ton of easy passes and he cashed in. Could keep up Week 9…if he’s not traded first.

3) Elijah Moore (6-67-0/6) stood out here. Best he’s looked. Several catches in the gut/over the middle, a nice pitch-and-catch with White. Moore may be getting ready to PPR pop a little bit…IF Crowder is traded.

4) Denzel Mims (2-30-0/3) got more time with Corey Davis out, but he didn’t cash in on it. Played the most snaps of any Jets WR this game but was minimally looked at. They just need to deal Mims. He’s either done as an NFL player…the new N’Keal Harry…or it’s a Jets problem that new scenery will fix. I think Mims will be a Panther by the end of Tuesday/trade deadline.

‍

-- C.J. Uzomah (4-33-0/4) got an extra target and catch more than usual this week, but no TD...he's slowly getting himself in the 'could be a TE1 this week' sweepstakes every week now...the same way Hunter Henry and Dawson Knox were -- low targets, good efficiency, high TD rate.

 -- Quincy Williams (1 tackles, 1 PD) was back from his concussion but he played limited snaps as NYJ activated terrible Jarrad Davis (3 tackles) and jammed him into the starting lineup. The Quincy Williams run may be done for reasons I will never understand, but I know the NFL…the Jets sought out Davis in the preseason and he’s back off IR and rammed right into the starting lineup.

Snap Counts of Interest:

43 = Uzomah

20 = Sample

43 = Mixon

14 = Perine

59 = Mims

55 = Cole

51 = Crowder

30 = E Moore

59 = M Carter

24 = Ty Johnson

Ross Jacobs

FFM

01 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Packers 24, Cardinals 21 

The Cardinals grabbed an early lead, but the Packers would tie up the score shortly after. They then got the ball near the Cardinals goal line after Rondale Moore tipped the punt with his finger. However, the Cardinals defense stiffened and held the Packers to just a FG.

The score was 10-7 Packers at halftime and there was the feeling that the Packers were lucky to be in the game. Surely the Cardinals would crack it open soon. But a tipped pass off of Moore's hands ricocheted straight to a defender and the Packers got another short field and an easy score to make it 17-10.

After that the two teams would trade blows with the Cardinals twice scoring TD's to cut the Packer lead. With Green Bay looking to close the game out in the final minutes, they drove down to the Cardinals 1 yard line but were denied the score. Cardinals ball, 99 yards to go for the win.

Arizona looked like they were going to pull out a miracle win. They drove the field and were set up for the TD, but AJ Green didn't hear an audible from Kyler Murray and the perfectly thrown pass his direction sailed right behind him and into the arms of former Cardinal CB Rasul Douglas. Ball game Packers.

Credit the Packers. They were down their top two receivers, but they had the perfect game plan and pulled out the win over the better team. They are now 7-1 and right in the mix for the top seed in the NFC. With this win and Minnesota's loss to Dallas without Dak, they probably just cemented the division for themselves.

But...there's no way they are the better team of these two. Green Bay played as good a game as they could have hoped for and still needed a couple of turnovers and a missed audible to win. The Cardinals were off their game. It happens. But if you played this game 100 times I think the Cardinals win 60%+ of them. They are just a more well-rounded team to me.

Arizona is now tied with the Rams for the division, but they own the tiebreaker for the moment. There's still another game left to be played between them. Win that and they probably secure the division. Lose and they are likely looking at the #5 seed where they would still be dangerous but much less than if they had the 1 or 2 seed.

Of course this assumes that they can get through the next few weeks relatively unscathed, but that is much more difficult now with Kyler likely needing to recover from an injury. They have the 49'ers, Panthers, and Seahawks, all beatable teams. Can Colt McCoy get them through (if it comes down to it)? Perhaps. This defense is quite salty, and they have the playmakers to help him on offense. The toughest game will likely be the Seahawks because they could/should have Russell back by then. If they can go 2-1 in this stretch they'll be in good position to hang onto the lead against the Rams.

Fantasy Notes

--Another week, another so-so fantasy performance for Aaron Rodgers (22-37 for 184 yards, 2 TD/0 INT). I warned weeks ago that I didn't like how he looked or how the schedule was laid out and suggested you trade him for Josh Allen or another undervalued QB at the time. I know he didn't have Davante here and this was against one of the best defenses in the league, but something just isn't right with this offense and it's not getting better. Outside of the 2020 explosion, Rodgers has been mortal for fantasy three of the last four years. Most games now he gets about 250 yards and 2 TD's. Nice, solid work but not fantastic, not what you paid through the nose to draft. If he has another spike game soon I still recommend trying to get off this train.

--If you watched this game then you saw what I saw with the Packers RB's. AJ Dillon (16-78-0) was the more effective runner by far than Aaron Jones (15-59-1, 7-51-0/11) and also took one more carry than Jones. So are we to the point of a split?

No. I don't think so. This was the result of Davante being out which made the two RB's the best players left for Rodgers to work with. The Packers needed to grind the ball and control the clock, and Dillon's power running let them do just that. But it was Jones that got the goal line work and led the team in targets. Jones is still the far superior fantasy RB here. Of course if Jones ever does get hurt Dillon becomes a top 5 back instantly.

--Robert Tonyan tore his ACL here and is out for the year. Marcedes Lewis will ascend to the starting role. He's a trusted veteran for Rodgers, but I doubt it works out to good fantasy stats. He'll be the same as Tonyan, just hoping for the occasional TD to make it work. Green Bay might look to trade for help at TE too. There have been rumors floating that they are interested in Evan Engram. That would certainly be an interesting pairing, but I can't get fully excited about it because this is still not an efficient passing offense, and Rodgers isn't likely to wear out a new acquisition until he knows he can trust him.

--With Davante and Lazard both out, the TD's went to Randall Cobb (3-15-2/5) because of course they did. You think Rodgers is going to throw to anyone but his favorites? Cobb shouldn't even be on the field. He's completely useless for anything other than short 1st downs and TD's, but that's good enough for Aaron. You can safely ignore this event.

--Kyler Murray (22-33 for 274, 0 TD/2 INT, 6-21-0) had a down game here. That happens sometimes. He's still perfectly fine for fantasy moving forward after he gets past this new injury. Early reports are a PCL sprain which could keep him out a week...or a month. We'll have to wait for more information this week. I'm going to guess somewhere between 2-3 weeks. One likely scenario would be he misses the next 3 games and then returns for the Bears game after their bye week.

*RC Note: Kyler might try to play Week 9, but I’m guessing he’ll be out for at least Week 9 and 50/50 for Week 10. Colt McCoy has a chance to guide them through, although the offense/scoring will be down and affects FF production. 

Even if Kyler comes limping back Week 9...his running will be off and thus a restrictor on his FF upside -- and he was already not running for much of anything the past few weeks.

--Well, Chase Edmonds (7-30-1, 3-39-0/4) got his TD, so now is the time to try and package him up in a deal. His role isn't getting any better. James Conner (5-22-2) is still a fantasy vulture...uh I mean primary goal line back, and now that Kyler is hurt the scoring chances get even slimmer.

--DeAndre Hopkins (2-66-0/2) somewhat saved his day with an early bomb for 55 yards. He very nearly had a TD on the play, but it was called back for a facemask on the defender. He came into the game nursing a hamstring injury, so it was no surprise when he reinjured it on that play and had to leave the game for a time. Being the warrior he is, he checked himself back into the game later on (against Kingsbury's wishes) and caught another pass for 11 yards. They quickly pulled him again after that play and his day was done. He should be healthy again next week, but again, with Kyler being out it's obvious to wonder about how his scoring will be. This actually might work out for him though, because McCoy shouldn't be nearly as adept at exploiting mismatches, so he might just start forcing the ball to Hopkins again. We might be back to Hopkins getting 14 targets a game for a few weeks.

--Everyone else has just been a random decent option and hope for a score with Murray. Zach Ertz (4-42-0/4) is doing about the same work that Maxx Williams was getting. Kirk and Green are the next two options averaging 3-5 catches a game. And Rondale is still getting his usual short work looking to pop a big play. How all this changes with McCoy I have no idea. I'm guessing it doesn't get much better for anyone other than Hopkins.

IDP Notes

--RC and I had a quick discussion during the game about possible DPOY candidates in our opinion. De'Vondre Campbell (7 tackles, 1 sack, 2 tfl) should absolutely be on the short list, but he'll never even get a sniff from the mainstream media. And to think the Cardinals let him go this off-season and nobody wanted to sign him until Green Bay scooped him up for a minimal deal. What are all these GM's doing if they can't even see how great this guy is?

--Man, is Eric Stokes (6 tackles, 1 pd) good. RC is right that he's been the best rookie corner in a very good class of rookie corners. The man is very nearly a lockdown corner already. His only mistake on the night was the big play to Hopkins, but he had perfect coverage until Hopkins lost him last second on an adjustment to a wild throw by Murray. He should be in play for defensive rookie of the year, but again he won't even get mentioned I guarantee. Huge steal by the Packers in the 2021 draft.

Snap Counts of Interest

56 = AJ Green

46 = Christian Kirk

36 = Rondale Moore

43 = Zach Ertz

35 = Chase Edmonds

22 = James Conner

54 = Juwann Winfree

50 = Randall Cobb

16 = Amari Rodgers

48 = Aaron Jones

29 = AJ Dillon

35 = Robert Tonyan

31 = Marcedes Lewis

R.C. Fischer

FFM

01 November 2021

Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...

R.C. Fischer

FFM

29 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Bengals 41, Ravens 17

I knew as soon as I said something nice about the Ravens (last week) that they would do an instant heel turn on me. I will eviscerate them/John Harbaugh this week…so, guaranteed, next game for Baltimore – they will win by 70 points.

What a strange game, but a good game for the Bengals…a defining game, really. A game where you could say the Bengals are the best team in the AFC North now…and it not-be ridiculous. I think we need to start wondering if the Bengals are one of the best teams in the AFC…

As far as this game… It was a grind, a standoff in the 1st-half. 13-10 Cincy at the half…both teams displaying good defense that thwarted the opposing offenses. Ja’Marr Chase maybe had one catch and was being taken out by Marlon Humphrey while Lamar Jackson was being somewhat contained by the Bengals and doing his usual Lamar stuff = just missing that wide open receiver on a throw (with the game commentators saying: oh, he’d like to have that one back…no, that’s who Lamar is. It comes with the package).

The Bengals, clinging to a 3-point lead at the half, kicked off to Baltimore…who went down the field to take a 17-13 lead. You’re thinking, at that point, live, that this game was going to be a continued AFC North slugfest to the final whistle with the last team to have the ball getting the win.

However, from that point on the Bengals scored the next 24 points and it was so bad a beating that they took Lamar Jackson out with like 6+ minutes left in the game. The Ravens just rolled over and quit.

That ‘quitting’ comment needed to be thrown in there to show just how much the Bengals took it at the Ravens. These two good teams traded punches, but the Ravens ran out of steam and the Bengals just got better as they went. It wasn’t one of those ‘lucky’ wins where a team got a fluky INT or bad ref call or converted three 4th-downs to pull an upset…it was NOT tyat Cincy threw the kitchen sink at them and hung in for the win – this was the Bengals exercising pure toughness and making the Ravens bend to their will. This was a signature game for Cincy…a signature win.

The Bengals aren’t just ‘good’ and capable of surprising teams – they are going out and beating, physically beating…and outsmarting…and out-everything-ing teams. This is a (5-2) team that got screwed out of a win over Green Bay Week 5 (in the missed FG festival) in OT…and lost Week 2 at CHI in a bit of a fluky loss they almost came back late and won…they are closer to (7-0) then (3-4)/(4-3). Detroit gives every team fits week-to-week, but Cincinnati blew them out Week 6 and made them look worse/demoralized more than any time I’ve seen the scrappy Lions look this year.

I think I’d put my dollar down on the Bengals to win the AFC North today. The Browns are battered…and the Bengals are the new gritty, scrappy bunch of the AFC North.

Baltimore handed over the AFC North baton in this game…actually, the Bengals took the baton from the Ravens and then turned around and beat them about the head and neck area with it.

Baltimore is a random box marbles dumped onto your kitchen floor…you don’t know where they’re all going to go/wind up at from start to finish. One week they look great, the next they look stupid. This particular game was one of the worst game plans I’ve seen since the Ravens Week 1 watching Darren Waller catch 422 passes against them and they never adjusted (more on their issues in the next section).

The Ravens go as far as Lamar Jackson takes them/makes things up moment-to-moment as the defense randomly looks hot then cold series to series. This Ravens defense has allowed 30+ points in a game three times in 7 games. The defense is erratic, the coaching is erratic, the RB group is a disaster, and Lamar is erratic. They can beat anyone and lose to anyone. So, that type of team is going to be +/- .500 in the end. Lean 9-10 wins due to schedule, but 8 wins is possible as they are coached downwards…and all reliant on what side of the bed Lamar woke up on that day.

The Bengals are not all the way there yet, but they are legit. Legit to win the division. Legit to beat anyone in the AFC in the playoffs, home or on the road. It’s likely ‘too soon’ in the Bengals' evolution for them to go all the way – but you do not want to play this team. Good offense, very good defense, emerging kicker. If Cincy beats Cleveland Week 9 (at CIN), they will go on to win 11-13 games and win the AFC North and be a high seed in the AFC playoffs. If they lose to the Browns Week 9…it will be a dogfight between CLE and CIN to get to 11-12 wins and a division title, the other a top wild card.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I was asked about who I thought were the early MVP candidates in the NFL…Joe Burrow (23-38 for 416 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) is someone on my top 10 list.

After Week 7, Burrow is #4 in TD passes, #5 in passing yards…#2 in yards per pass attempt, behind Russell Wilson.

Burrow started out the season a bit clunky looking to me…a bit tentative coming off the injury – but if there is a modern-day Tom Brady, it is Burrow (not Mac Jones)…not as flashy as current day Brady, but then you look up and see him with 2-3-4 passing TDs in almost every game, flirting with 300+ yards passing a lot, winning games and performing well in all the weather elements. He’s just a great QB talent…a modern-day Joe Montana is again reforming with Burrow.

But because Burrow is not flashy…the Bengals are undervalued in point spreads, handicapping in general, and in Fantasy. People just do not, cannot see the Bengals as a top functioning team. It doesn’t compute with our history. The public is still lagging on the Bengals.

 -- The fans will think it’s all Ja’Marr Chase’s (8-201-1/10) doing, this Bengals turnaround. You’re not going to be able to talk them out of it…so, let them have their fun with it.

Chase was wiped out by Marlon Humphrey early on…barely was targeted, but then it started clicking in the second half and there was a simple short pass turned multiple missed tackle, spun around 360 and sent sailing for an 81-yard TD…and that kinda broke the back of the Ravens at that moment.

The thing about Chase is…he is paying off for Cincy in a different way. Yes, his personal numbers are sweet…but we’ve been over this time and again – it’s a lot of fluky big plays puffing his numbers. But the real win for Cincy here is: the hype on Chase is so real that the opposing team is starting to put #1 cover corners on him, and that’s opening up everything else.

Where John Harbaugh is a terrible coach, and whatever they say about Don ‘Wink’ Martindale being a defensive genius – this was the second time this year I saw obvious malfeasance of coaching forcing a Ravens loss here… Week 1 it was just sitting back and watching Darren Waller catch pass after pass on them, and them never adjusting to it. Here, it was Chase being put in one on one with Humphrey, and the safeties really never bracketing help over the top. And usually Burrow stayed away from Chase when Humphrey was on him, but as soon as Anthony Averett was on Chase…he went there. Eventually, Burrow attacked Humphrey because the underneath was opening up as the corner feared getting beat deep, because he had no help over.

The one time I saw them do a safety help over on Chase…Burrow got suckered into a throw to Chase (assuming the Ravens were never going to give Humphrey help deep), and the pass was picked off in the end zone – the one blight on Burrow’s day. I don’t recall seeing the safety help in play after that…

Burrow just picked on the weak spot of the Ravens defense over and over, Baltimore never really adjusted, Chase is really fast and has to be accounted for like Tyreek Hill in some senses…or any fast guy WR…Cooks, Ruggs, etc., and that opens up other things if the QB is smart…and Burrow is.

Soon, teams will double Chase a bunch and his numbers will tail off…but Tee Higgins (7-62-0/15) can take advantage of that. Speaking of Tee, he looked not-good here…Anthony Averett is playing a very good CB opposite Humphrey. Averett made Tee’s every catch torture. Tee could not separate from Averett often…the one worry about Tee at this level – his speed is a problem, but everything else looks fine.

The Ravens have a good secondary, but they had a bad plan/were out schemed here/Joe Burrow is Montana/Brady-esque with his dissection of things.

 -- The Ja’Marr Chase-effect is helping C.J. Uzomah (3-91-2/3) become relevant. 5 TDs in his last 4 games. Three targets or fewer in six of his 7 games this year, but he’s catching 88% of his targets this season, so he’s getting like 3 catches for yards and high hopes for a TD on limited targets – there’s an upside here with 1-2-3 more targets in games.

You like the main TE working with the elite passer – and Burrow is an elite passer. Uzomah is not going to become Kelce-Pitts or anything but outside of that, he’s a useful TE1 hopeful along with 10-15 other NFL starting TEs.

Someone sent me an article from CBS on how brilliant the Ja’Marr Chase draft pick was, to laugh at it. My text back captures the mainstream right now: They (the media/fans) don’t believe in (or even know about) the Cincy D, or Burrow as an MVP candidate, or Zac Taylor as Coach of the Year possible, or Awuzie as DPOY -- but Chase is for sure the smartest move in league history, that is now in stone after 7 games. The entirety of their Bengals analysis is = speaking the words Ja'Marr Chase...then mic drop...

 -- Lamar Jackson (15-31 for 253 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 12-88-0) had his typical 50+ yards rushing and 1 passing TD event.

I could make the argument that Lamar Jackson is a league MVP this year…that he is the entire team. However, I can’t say he’s an MVP because he’s a double-edged sword. One play he makes an escape and converts a 1st-down out of thin air and you marvel at the magician’s sleight of hand. No one can do what Lamar does…but then the next play comes along, and he misfires to an open receiver, or tries to run it when it’s not there and gets tripped up.

Comp. Pct. in his last five games (in order): 52%, 59%, 86%, 70%, 48%. He’s a box of chocolates QB…you never know what you’re gonna get. Sometimes brilliant, sometimes disastrous.

Credit the Bengals defense a lot here – it was Lamar’s season low for Comp. Pct. in a game, and his high for times sacked in a regular game…ever (5).

 -- Two RB notes from this game….

1) The Ravens RB group is killing them. Bell-Freeman were so bad here, it’s laughable…

However, one RB looked legit…Ty’Son Williams (2-10-0, 2-29-0/2). This backfield (that combined for 29 yards rushing on 11 carries…19 yards on 9 carries without Ty’Son) that Harbaugh is running makes no sense, and opponents are not threatened by it. But when Ty’Son came in he looked like a real running back.

I gotta think Harbaugh is not a total idiot, and he’ll figure out Ty’Son is his best shot, but…

I still think Ty’Son has hope for 2021, but not likely…and then no hope in 2022 when Dobbins-Edwards returns. It’s a 2021 thing/hope when Harbaugh is desperate.

2) Samaje Perine (11-52-1, 1-23-0/1) has back-to-back games with 11 carries each. He missed Week 6 with COVID. Before and after that, he’s playing much more snaps and working well.

I’ve gotten so many ‘Should I start Antonio Gibson or Chase Edmonds?’ questions this week…

In their last two games played:

12.0 carries, 48.0 total yards, 2.0 rec., 0.0 TDs (6.8 PPR) per game = Antonio Gibson

11.0 carries, 79.5 total yards, 2.0 rec., 0.5 TDs (13.0 PPR) per game = Chase Edmonds (includes the GB game)

11.0 carries, 79.0 total yards, 2.5 rec., 1.0 TDs (16.5 PPR) per game = Perine

Snaps played as % of the game snaps, in their last two games…

64% = Edmonds

55% = Perine

41% = Gibson

Why is Perine getting more touches? Three weeks ago, it was that Mixon was banged up/very questionable and was having snaps managed. But then Mixon got 23 touches Week 6…but got a little nicked up at the end of the game (Perine out with COVID). But Mixon was fine going into Week 7.

Is it a temporary management of touches for Mixon? Or other? Perine took the final 8 touches of this game, which was in the blowout stages – so, I think it’s more respect for Perine in general, but the game flow allowed Perine to get more work Week 7 late…and Week 5 Mixon was very questionable. Probably more blip than any alert.

 -- Rashod Bateman (3-80-0/6) looks very good…again, just a weak fit with Lamar in this offense. Eventually, Bateman will have a breakout game, but likely not a follow up after…just randomness, and mostly down on Lamar targeting (lack thereof).

If Bateman had landed better (NFL-wise), man…but he didn’t. Maybe he’ll surpass Marquise, but that probably won’t happen until next season (if it does at all). My fear is they split limited targets and are both ‘meh’ for FF in 2022.

 -- I keep saying it over and over…this Bengals-DST is no joke. They really won the game here, shutting down the Ravens, for the most part, all game. This is a really good, top 10 NFL defense…better than the Ravens defense…defense.

Watch what they do to Mike White this week…

And, yes, Chidobe Awuzie (5 tackles, 1 PD) should be on a list of 10 possible Defensive Player of the Year, but he won’t be…nor will he get a single vote or mention.

Snap Counts of Interest:

53 = Chase

45 = Boyd

42 = Higgins

34 = Mixon

30 = Perine

52 = Uzomah

27 = Sample

R.C. Fischer

FFM

29 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Football Team 34, Falcons 30

These two teams…man, are they terrible.

The Falcons should’ve won this game by 2-3 scores, easy. But Taylor Heinicke hit Terry McLaurin with a couple prayers throughout the game, and a backbreaker late, while Arthur Smith is trying to become the worst offensive mind in the NFL. Blame the McLaurin prayer TDs for keeping Washington in it. Blame Smith or the O-C for being up by 2 points with 3+ minutes left and blowing it from there.

The Falcons just allowed a TML prayer, hail mary-ish TD but Washington failed the 2-point conversion to tie the game. So, Atlanta was up by 2 points and was getting the ball with 3+ minutes left…and if they can get a 1st-down or two, they ice the game and the victory...giving them a 2-game win streak and some life to the season. Out the Falcons come on offense, and the first play they run is a handoff to Mike Davis…for -3 yards.

To that point in the game, Cordarrelle Patterson had 3 TDs, but more importantly he was gashing the Football Team on every run (5.7 ypc for the game for CP) while Mike Davis was averaging just above 1 yards per carry in the game. So, needing to push the ball and run the clock, they give it to Davis, of course, and now have 2nd and 13…and you knew they were going to now fail to drive and have to give the ball over to Washington with plenty of time unless they somehow got clever and got a 1st-down conversion…but 2nd & 13 is a bad spot. The Falcons then ran play #2 off-tackle to Davis…for a few meaningless yards (no threat of him breaking a big gain, just a pile moved)…setting up 3rd & 9…which was then a screen pass to Davis for 4 yards and punt.

The three most important plays of the game…and Cordarrelle Patterson, and his 3 TDs, was on the sidelines watching it all…not even in as a smart decoy to have to account for…while Mike Davis lost the game by virtue of his lack of playmaking ability in a key spot.

You cannot make up how stupid NFL coaches and coordinators are.

I marveled at watching an extra point kicked in this game early on. Why? Because as the camera panned to the ball being snapped and then following it up into the air as it was kicked, I got to see all the background of the stadium/seating and it caught my attention that it was pure red…blood red…nothing but empty (red) seats as far as the eye could see with a smattering of human bodies spread out here and there – and it wasn’t due to COVID because they were packed in like sardines for the TB-NE game (and most any college football game), in the rain in New England, at night (as one example). The fans are voting with their feet/wallets on the Falcons.

The Falcons are pathetic, and this new coaching staff has shown me nothing to have any hope in. Dan Quinn should win a special medal of honor that he got this team to the Super Bowl a while back. It’s an organizational problem…one of the worst run organizations in the league, suddenly.

And the thing is…they should’ve crushed Washington here. The better team was Atlanta…or maybe the less-worse team was Atlanta. Washington made all the right moves in the 2021 offseason, coming of an emerging end to 2020 – the players aren’t the problem. The math then has to be: Ron Rivera is not a great coach. Once Sean McDermott left him in Carolina, Rivera has gone 38-42 with two playoff appearances and no wins…and has been trying so hard to convince the world that Kyle Allen and Taylor Heinicke can be Super Bowl QBs. An indictment of his coaching mind.

11 career head coaching seasons now for Rivera and three winning seasons all total. And this talented Washington team is sinking to the bottom of the NFC East, fast.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let’s all celebrate Cordarrelle Patterson (6-34-0, 5-82-3/6)…the FF savior.

As Fantasy analysts we can all fight over whether a ‘B’ grade player is set up for an ‘A’ season or game…or ‘C’ season or game. We do a lot of talking and noticing and we get some right and get some wrong – but when you get Cordarrelle Patterson right weeks ahead of the crowd, and the majority of you possessed him to start the season or quickly got into him after Week 1 or 2 – this move could change the landscape of a Fantasy season. This is what I live for. This WAS a difference making minor move…that was little regarded in August.

Mark Cuban has a great line/book of the same theme – on some major things in life. His overall take is: You only have to be right once to be a major success. You could have 10 failed businesses but if the 11th is the homerun, then you win at life. You date a number of people (failed attempts) looking to find ‘the one’. Cuban is encouraging people not to let failure change them – look ahead to the next swing to hit the homerun, don’t worry about the strikeout the at bat before.

There are a lot of players we moved off-and-on the bench/rosters this season, but the identification of Patterson…for the cost of acquisition – it will go down in FFM history. Qadree Ollison, Ty Johnson, K.J. Osborn…doesn’t matter. You take those swings trying to find the Patterson nuclear bombs. Leading your league in transactions and trades…should be a staple of your FFM season. We’re taking educated scouting draft throws…looking for that ‘wow’ maneuver. CP is bringing us just that.

We found it. And if you deployed it Week 4…it was a weapon of mass destruction on your opponent. If it was on your bench…celebrate that you have ‘an answer’ in your inventory. There’s no questioning of CP anymore. It’s a delightful place to be.

…which means 5 FF points coming Week 5.

I see many analysts saying it’s not going to hold up because he’s playing a low amount of snaps. I get that logic…it’s made me cautious on starting some him the first few weeks depending on my options. Volume rules in many cases. However, with Patterson there’s two thoughts on his low snap counts…

1) They can grow from here. Potentially, we have upside here. He is the best RB on the team, after all.

2) For the first time this season, Patterson started the game. Not only started but played the first 3 plays before rotating Mike Davis in. Even the empty-headed Falcons can see the deal here…somewhat, not all the way, but baby steps towards it.

We have upside from here, but he is going to have regular old FF weeks where he doesn’t score a TD. Brace yourself for it, but I see the way they use him and I’m not worried about him week-to-week. He has to be in lineups.

You can choose to focus on the snap count here…or the output. I’m choosing the output.

Arthur Smith gets no credit for CP…this was the Bears 2020 assistant coach getting elevated to O-C in Atlanta and having worked with Patterson he wanted to bring him over and utilize him. Credit to O-C Dave Ragone.

Also, Matt Nagy had Patterson for two years…and wasted him. How long will this Nagy cancer continue to ruin players before the Bears do something?

 -- Mike Davis (13-14-0, 2-12-1/2) is trying hard but looks nothing like Patterson…Davis is becoming a wasted touch suddenly. Davis is averaging 3.1 yards per carry this season.

Wayne Gallman (6-29-0) debuted/entered the game and looked more spry.

Mike Davis is a sell high, if you see an opportunity because he’s not lighting it up and all the other RBs on the team are outperforming, visually. He’s going to be the 10+ carry, 1-3 catch a game guy…so he’s stable…but not exciting.

 -- Antonio Gibson (14-63-1, 2-12-0/2) was back to his starting role this week (after McKissic started and played the whole first series last week).

I think this game, this stat line is what we can expect from Gibson this year most weeks. A so-so/weaker O-Line and defenses keying on AG and letting Heinicke try and beat them. Bad news for AG’s FF value/upside. Stable RB2 with RB1 weeks.

He’s neither a buy low or sell high, he’s hold…a stable RB in a world of unstable RBs.

Washington losing Brandon Scherff kills things a little more the next 3+ weeks.

 -- Is Kyle Pitts (4-50-0/9) getting any better? Yes and No.

Yes, he saw more targets here. Yes, he was involved early…but then it petered out.

No, there is no real plan for him. No, he is not getting separation the way you want.

If they lined up Pitts as a WR a lot and let him go one-on-one more with DBs, it would open up other things. If they got Pitts those TE bubble screens that I saw like 5-10 times all last season but is now seemingly happening 5-10 times a game between any two teams in 2021, then Pitts might do more NFL/FF damage. But Arthur Smith is proving to be a dolt and his O-C is getting championed for Cordarrelle (but only plays him 30% of the game)…so, Pitts is getting ZERO creative plays behind the line of scrimmage…which let’s defenses just play him as a 1980’s TE without fearing he’s going to do something unusual/fresh/creative.

You have to have a Pitts alternative until we see a real turn with Pitts. I think that turn could come, but only from TE2 to low-end TE1. I doubt this offense, or these coaches are going to push Pitts to be a high-end monster this year.

 -- Taylor Heinicke (23-33 for 290 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs, 5-43-0) is probably going to keep this job over returning Ryan Fitzpatrick, but he shouldn’t. Heinicke is trying hard, racking numbers in garbage-timeish situations…so he looks better on paper then the on-field reality. Everyone of his TD passes in this game was a Jameis Winston like miracle.

In today’s NFL, if you just throw the ball at a good WR…something positive will eventually happen…worse case the pass goes incomplete, with a high chance of a defensive P.I. Good defenses have squashed Heinicke. Bad defenses have let him roll up desperation numbers. He’s playing like a younger Ryan Fitz – just heave it up and something good might happen, or worse case something neutral.

The style makes Heinicke an unpredictable, decent FF emergency option…but he isn’t taking Washington to the playoffs…or your FF team.

 -- Curtis Samuel (4-19-0/4) debuted and looked fine, but he played managed snaps and Heinicke isn’t as into throwing tight window passes, and Samuel is becoming a possession WR and not being unleashed as a weapon…is my concern. Might not be a big winner for FF here until garbage-time hits, like the rest of the squad.

 -- Terry McLaurin (6-123-2/13) got two TDs…one was heave and pray, and the DB was tracking it but mistimed the knock away and it landed in McLaurin’s hands seemingly right through the DBs arm…great concentration moment, but not really QB-WR magic happening…more a prayer answered. Later in the game, Heinicke heaved one to the end zone desperately to a double covered McLaurin who adjusted to the under throw, pass interfered/grabbed a DB and moved him out of his way so he could get in front of him to catch the wounded duck…and he did. Again, no real magical pitch and catch happening…but you’ll take blind heaves to a #1 deep ball WR.

I think McLaurin will be hard pressed for TDs because of Heinicke but…maybe he’ll score them because of the team being so bad, down a lot, and Heinicke is heaving him shots. I’m not selling him off desperately, but I will trade him hot if I can make a killer deal…people love him.

 -- Logan Thomas will be week-to-week with a hamstring injury, so I’d expect you’ll be without him the next two weeks. Ricky Seals-Jones (2-19-0/4) played the heavy majority of snaps in his place. Thomas was working like a back-end TE1 already, so I’d say RSJ will be a lesser-than and be a random hope TE2. He’s something to consider for the desperate, but rookie John Bates (0-0-0/0) may get some run as Washington lost key OL Brandon Scherff to injury for a few weeks, and Bates is a great blocker to add to the first team to help cover for Scherff.

 -- OK, now the Washington-DST is fully dead. They didn’t give the Falcons and dying Matt Ryan any real resistance. This was the game for them to step up and make Weeks 1-3 more about the tough opponents Weeks 1 and 3. Nope…they sucked here vs. ATL. No light at the end of any tunnel here.

Snap Counts of Interest:

55 = Pitts

49 = Hurts

17 = Lee Smith

51 = Mike Davis

23 = CPatt

10 = Gallman

62 = Seals-Jones

16 = Bates

65 = McLaurin

45 = Humphries

28 = Dyami

25 = C Samuel

37 = Gibson

27 = McKissic 

Ross Jacobs

FFM

29 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Buccaneers 38, Bears 3 

There's not much to take away from this one. The game was over by the end of the 1st quarter with the Bucs leading 21-0. It was 35-3 at halftime and the Bucs just kind of sat on the Bears the rest of the game. They barely even had to try.

The strange thing about this one is that it probably shouldn't have been such a huge gap. Almost every one of the Bucs scores came from a Bears turnover with a short field. Tampa didn't even have to drive the field. And even when they did score, the Bears defense wasn't making it easy on them. Brady had to squeeze multiple passes into really tight coverage. The Bears gave up 38 points, but it wasn't because of the defense. It was because Justin Fields is completely inept.

The Bucs just keep on cruising with a ridiculously easy schedule. They are going to be in the mix for the top seed in the NFC and will be one of the top Superbowl contenders. Can they win it? Absolutely. Are they the favorites? Probably not but it's hard to tell who the best NFC team is. It's up for debate between Arizona, Tampa, LAR, Dallas, and Green Bay.

The Bears fall to 3-4 and their schedule is about to eat them alive. Fields is simply not good enough to lead them through this. I don't see how they win more than 4 or 5 games this year.

Fantasy Notes

--The biggest surprise from this game had to be Khalil Herbert (18-100-0, 5-33-0/5) rushing for 100 yards on the vaunted Bucs defense. Was it a fluke? Yes and no. Herbert is for sure a solid runner. I liked what I saw from him in college, but I still didn't expect this. The best way I can think to describe him is as a slower Maurice Jones-Drew. He's a little guy but extremely strong and hard to bring down. He's patient and has good vision. Just a natural all-around RB, a solid talent. He doesn't have high end speed or agility, but I've seen enough now to know he can definitely play at this level.

Now he was helped out here by the run blocking. I'm not sure what got into the Bears but they opened him some nice holes to run through, something nobody else has managed to do against the Bucs. Maybe the Bucs just didn't care and knew the Bears couldn't beat them running the ball. Whatever it was, it worked out.

Some expected that Damien Williams would split touches with Herbert, but that didn't happen. Herbert is the one good thing the Bears have going on offense, so as long as Montgomery is out expect his numbers to remain stable. He's played his way into the #2 spot and I will be shocked if he isn't still taking 30% of the carries when Montgomery returns.

--Justin Fields (22-32 for 184 yards, 0 TD/3 INT, 8-38-0) is awful to watch. He couldn't look less interested in the game. He wants the ball out of his hands as fast as possible so he doesn't get killed. Even when he runs the ball I'm not seeing a 4.40 runner. Instead he just looks like every other generically decent running QB. For example, Lance has shown some legitimate burst as a runner. Fields has not. Not that I've seen anyways. Bears fans are in for a rough ride the next 3-4 years.

--As Fields fails he's taking this entire receiving corp with him. Allen Robinson (2-16-0/4) has a mere 23 catches on the year. I've seen a lot of Twitter analysts saying he's a buy low...no, just no. It's not his fault but it's reality. Just for context, Robinson has three seasons with over 1000 yards and they came with Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, and Nick Foles at QB, all guys the media loves to make fun of as trash heap QB's. Robinson is on pace for 55 catches for 608 yards. Just saying.

--The new top target in this passing game is actually Darnell Mooney (2-39-0/5) for what that's worth (Mooney 345 yards on the year compared to Robinson's 250). He is Fields's go-to guy. It's not going to work often but there will be an occasional spike game when they manage to connect on a long ball. Good luck guessing which game that is.

--Tom Brady (20-36 for 211 yards, 4 TD/0 INT) is still doing Brady things. He wants to win for sure, but he's clearly trying to rack up as many TD's as possible. He's got 21 already and is on pace for 48. He should get close to that mark and be in the top 3 or so QB scorers.

--With Antonio Brown out it sets up Chris Godwin (8-111-1/11) and Mike Evans (6-76-3/10) for some juicy numbers in his absence. I speculated weeks ago that while all three guys could be successful on the field together, they were all going to be held in the WR1.5-2 range while rotating, but that if one of them went out it would instantly rocket the other two to WR1 status. Well here we have the results, and it looks great for Godwin and Evans.

What Brown's absence didn't do was elevate Tyler Johnson (2-16-0/2) to any kind of meaningful touches. Brady has his guys, and he's not going to change that.

--Another item I talked about recently was my fears for Leonard Fournette (15-81-1, 2-9-0/4) because I thought that Ronald Jones (10-63-0) hadn't been completely vanquished. Coming into this game I thought perhaps Jones was just taking carries late in the game after it was already over, but that wasn't the case. Fournette worked the first two series but Jones was in on the third and getting a significant number of touches. I think we're back to the split they started the season with.

Jones is out of the doghouse temporarily and should get 8-10 carries a game while Fournette is going to take 12-15 and most of the receiving work. It still amounts to solid touch counts for Fournette, but my point was that the people saying he was a sure RB1 were assuming Jones was done for good and I suspected that was incorrect. Turns out it was.

IDP Notes

--Roquan Smith (13 tackles) now has 75 tackles on the year (10.7/g). He's only had less than 10 tackles in one game. He also has 2 sacks and an INT returned for a TD. This guy is arguably the top LB in the game. I know he's not remotely available in IDP leagues, but I had to share those numbers since they are so impressive. I wasn't a huge Smith fan when he came out, but he's really turned into a tackling machine. He should be getting some Defensive Player of the Year talk but likely won't since the Bears are losing a lot.

Snap Counts of Interest

39 = Leonard Fournette

14 = Ronald Jones

61 = Chris Godwin

56 = Mike Evans

49 = Tyler Johnson

40 = Cameron Brate

37 = OJ Howard

51 = Khalil Herbert

11 = Damien Williams

59 = Cole Kmet

26 = Jesse James