2022-23 Conference Playoff: Eagles 31, 49ers 7 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
How do you even analyze or draw any conclusions, going forward, from this game? On the very first offensive series for SF, Brock Purdy gets his arm hit and he’s gone from the game before it even really started. We now know Purdy had a complete tear of the ulnar collateral ligament, and now surgery…or ‘surgeries’ to repair it and he could be restricted or even out for most/all of the 2023 season. That’s a plot twist none of us saw coming. More on the Purdy injury/outlook for Fantasy/Dynasty in the next section.
The 49ers lost Purdy…they lost three fumbles in the game…and they had 11 penalties, seemingly the penalties were all at the wrong times on top of their abundance, and the real summation of this contest: eventually Christian McCaffrey was playing emergency QB for a stretch.
With all that unfolding, it was still only 7-7 midway through the 2nd-quarter…the Eagles were not looking that great. SF was hanging in there. But then the QB play/injuries, the fumbles, the penalties were all too much and the Eagles started running away with the game.
To me, this was like a bye week for Philly -- you cannot judge them positively for this outcome. In the 2nd-half they had CMC and a damaged Purdy rotating at QB and neither were capable of completing a forward pass. Philly didn’t have to play/worry about regular/normal pass defense for much of this game. However, the Eagles will get public credit for two blowout playoff wins…and that will push Philly to be the favorites, initially, for the Super Bowl. Before the playoffs began, the Eagles limped to the finish line and were everyone’s favorites to get knocked off early. Now, by virtue of these playoff blowouts -- they are the Super Bowl favorite. Recency bias rules in the public.
The 49ers ended their 12-game win streak in ‘spectacular’ fashion. They also start a new QB controversy for themselves -- because this team cannot-not have flux at the QB spot. Last week it was ‘Purdy may be the guy’, in the media FINALLY. But now, we’ll have six+ months of Purdy or Lance or Jimmy G. or Brady or Rodgers or draft another QB talk for the offseason…the media’s dream -- non-stop QB speculation talk. The new national ‘hot stove league’ -- football media clickbait reports on every team changing their QB scenarios.
The 49ers could be the NFC favorite in 2023, media/public/Vegas-wise, this spring/winter because now it’s more likely that a Rodgers or Brady could come in for a year while Purdy rehabs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- So sad for Brock Purdy (4-4 for 23 yards, 0 TD/0 INT)…not just for the obvious reason, but this injury probably costs him his lockdown of the 49ers starting job for 2023 season…and puts his 2024 into flux, as well.
NFL people are so sure Purdy is a lucky phenomenon that isn’t real/sustainable because he was a 7th-round prospect from the draft. But NFL people are wrong about most everything they try and judge that they shouldn’t be taken seriously, especially about QBs (anyone remember Winston-Darnold-Bortles-Gabbert, et. al.?). However, the media sway is powerful…the ‘they say’ is powerful enough to suck in the other worst judges of QB talent -- NFL head coaches and offensive coordinators.
Anyone should see clearly that Brock Purdy is a far superior NFL talent compared to fellow rookie QBs such as Kenny Pickett, or any 2022 NFL Draft class QB…but because it wasn’t pre-projected that way, and the media/coaches/most fans never learn from or question these things -- Purdy won’t be the 49ers franchise QB for 2023. He is seen as a randomly lucky fill-in. I’m telling you it’s not the case -- Purdy was playing legit NFL quarterbacking from the first snap he was thrown into. But I think I’m the only one on the planet that believes this…so, the NFL will not react as such. And now that he’s seriously hurt, we may never get a resolution on my claims.
But Kyle Shanahan spent the entire playoff trying to protect Purdy, only to see Purdy save the day in the 2nd-half of both their playoff wins -- I don’t think Shanahan fully believes either, and now there’s a big problem (the injury) hanging over a decision going into 2023 and beyond. Purdy? Lance? Jimmy G. for another 'gap year'? Rodgers? Brady? Shanahan has options...and they’re all legit options for Shanahan -- or stick with the best QB (Purdy) of this group in 2022 season (I‘m not joking), but is a guy who now has a serious elbow injury and can’t be sure when he’ll be back 100% or if he’ll be back 100% ever again.
The easy way out is to pivot off Purdy for 2023 and see how he heals/rehabs in 2023 for a 2024 decision. The 49ers are built for now…they can’t be afforded the risk of basing everything on a seriously injured QB.
The 49ers QB job for 2023 is ‘open for business’.
-- Speaking of things that the media, and thus the fans, got wrong…
When the Eagles drafted Jalen Hurts (15-25 for 1231 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) in 2020…he was drafted in the 2nd-round, and the media clutched their pearls in horror.
The 2020 Hurts media and fan sentiment:
WHY he’s not a 2nd-round QB prospect, what are they doing?
THEY don’t even need a QB…they have a (media beloved) franchise QB already -- Carson Wentz! That guy is going to be the Philly QB for the next decade!
HECK, Hurts is the guy that got benched for Tua, so therefore we know he’s not very good…Nick Saban and the entirety of football can’t be wrong about Tua v. Hurts!?!? (who would you draft today…Tua or Hurts?)
The 2021 and preseason 2022 media and fans sentiment on Hurts:
The Eagles don’t even want Hurts as their franchise QB…I have it on GOOD authority (every third article reporting on the behind-the-scenes).
The Eagles WANT, and should trade for, Deshaun Watson.
Gardner Minshew was brought in to PUSH Hurts, possibly replacing him.
The Eagles could/SHOULD draft a QB in the 2021 NFL Draft…use all those picks they have to move up for a franchise QB like Mac Jones.
The Eagles CAN’T get far with a limited talent like Hurts…yeah, he made the playoffs in the 2021 season, but they lost big -- so Philly could/should draft a QB in the 2021 NFL Draft…use all those picks they have to move up for a franchise QB like Mac Jones.
I could go on, but you get the point.
I’m not pointing this out to ridicule the NFL media for my own jollies…those of you within the sound of my keyboard need to be ‘awaken’ -- you’re trapped in a world where you think the media and coaches and scouts are beyond reproach and are far more expert on things because they are ‘in the business’. You’re never going to get very far in Fantasy…Dynasty…Betting until you ‘wake up’ and start to see the opportunity there is in how WRONG the media and coaches constantly are.
I’m so happy for Jalen Hurts…that he broke through the barriers all of football, back to his Nick Saban days, constructed in front of him. No one was saying Hurts was a great pick and that he was gonna replace Wentz fast, because Wentz was a problem -- no one, except little old dumb me…who is not a credentialed media member, didn’t go to J school, and didn’t scout for an NFL team. It’s not my only QB scouting win…I got a trophy room filled with them the past 10+ years -- me on one side, the entire football intelligentsia on the other. It’s my favorite place to be. I’m not perfect in scouting -- just better at it than ‘them’. I can’t afford to be as wrong as they constantly are, or I’m out of business.
This video clip is so very real (after being in this business for a decade+): to what I’m talking about, big picture on the Hurts thing -- it’s more real than you know for some new readers of our material: https://youtu.be/zE7PKRjrid4
Come follow us, at FFM…
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FFM Subscription information: Subscription info
-------------------------------------------------------------------
-- A.J. Brown (4-28-0/8) complained about his targeting last week, and then he got a bunch of targets right off the bat in this game…but didn’t make a lot of plays with them, and then the game got out of hand otherwise.
In his last 6 games, AJB has caught 30 of his 57 targets…just a 52.6% connection rate (two of those games with Minshew). Just one TD in those 6 games.
Not sure if this is a slump or a blip…or the way defenses are covering him has changed. I don’t detect a problem…but also Hurts’ numbers in that span are down.
Hurts’ first 8 games of the season he was (8-0) and one game under 200 yards passing. His last 9 games, (8-1) and five of 9 games under 200 yards passing. An (8-1) record but close call games/wins over Indy (by 1) and GB (by 7) and CHI (by 5) and vs. NYG’s backups (by 6).
Just sayin‘…
-- My Quez Watkins (0-0-0/1) cheap props really panned out…(see, I am fallible)
He did get one deep ball shot, and he had a step on his coverage…but the ball was slightly under thrown and the coverage caught up and batted it away at the last second. Philly didn’t need to push the pass much in this game, so all the WRs had poor outputs. Watkins’ targets have all but dried up the last few weeks.
-- The game plan for SF was heavy Deebo Samuel (3-33-0/6, 6 carries for -9 yards)…but when the QB play died, and everything went short, Deebo had no room after the catch or on the run and thus a bad output game.
The lesson I had reinforced the last few weeks: Brandon Aiyuk (1-10-0/1) is a solid WR and all but when Deebo returned from injury…it was all about Deebo. Aiyuk is a nice side piece. Aiyuk has 1 TD catch in his last 7 games.
However, Deebo didn’t have a banner 2022 either: just 1 TD catch in his last 11 games. 3 receiving TDs all season.
-- QBs that the Eagles have held their teams to 20 points or fewer in the 2022-23 season…
Cousins, Wentz, Kyler, Cooper Rush, Pickett, Mills, M Ryan, Fields, Dalton, David Webb, Dan Jones, Josh Johnson/CMC/injured Purdy.
Against Jared Goff (#5 offense in the NFL), they allowed 35 points. Against Aaron Rodgers (#14 offense) they allowed 33 points, against Dak Prescott/#4 offense (no Hurts playing) they allowed 40 points.
It’s a good defense that has not faced a real elite QB (Mahomes, Allen, Burrow) yet this season. Holding SF to 7 with all the QB chaos is not impressive. Holding the Giants to 7 points before that is kinda impressive. Overall, when facing higher end offenses/QBs this season, the Philly D hasn’t been as good overall. Kansas City is a whole different animal than they are used to working against.
-- One final note/complaint…
Down 31-7 with 3-4-5-6-7 minutes left in the game…after seeing Purdy and Josh Johnson go down in-game, with the game WAY over…Kyle Shanahan still had perpetual injury-concern Christian McCaffrey in the game touching the ball…and RUNNING PLAYS AT QB!!! Also, Deebo in the game running triple reverses and getting squashed in the backfield.
Why?
Why put these key players at risk in a lost game? I dunno, but NFL coaches do it all the time.
Snap Counts of Interest:
31 = Gainwell
22 = Scott
22 = Sanders
