2022-23 Conference Playoff: Chiefs 23, Bengals 20 (Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis Game Report)
First and foremost, let’s address this game from a bettor’s mentality…specifically, my mentality during/after the game. I had the Bengals +pts as my Best Bet and I played it getting points and straight up to win moneylines. I believed the Bengals were the best team in football, in my 2022 season studies and metrics, and given the fact that they were going to face a team they had beaten three times, and now with that team’s QB not 100% in the ankle and their TE not 100% with a back injury…and that KC is one of the worst teams against the spread (ATS) in football, and the Bengals one of the best ATS -- I loved the Cincy setup here.
And then the Bengals lost this game late and thus blew all my Sunday bets and tore up tickets on my Cincy to get to, and win, the Super Bowl bets plus my Burrow MVP bets at great moneylines before the playoffs kicked off. It’s all gone. Gone, I tell you. All my 49ers over Dallas best bet winnings from the previous week…’they’ got it back from me here.
Many of you went on the Cincy ride with us…and you watched it get snatched from our hands. It doesn’t feel good. We’ve been on a roll all 2022 season and even better ATS in the playoffs, so I’m not used to losing my big/best bet plays…it sucks.
Four things about this betting loss:
1) The Bengals had a chance to win with under a minute, but they blew it…gave the ball back to Mahomes and had them stopped, looking like an OT game with the Bengals having the 2nd-half momentum, but then the late hit penalty by Cincy…and…ballgame.
We had this bet/win in our grasp with less than a minute left, after a disastrous start to the game for Cincy. It’s not like we bet on the stupidest thing in the universe…we were ‘this close’.
2) You have to hand it to Patrick Mahomes. Ankle sprain and all, and he went out and pretty much made the injury a non-factor. Both teams had injuries to some receivers and various other chaos to deal with going in…Mahomes’ ankle, Kelce’s back, Cincy O-Line missing. Mahomes played a great game under the circumstances.
3) Did the refs cheat KC into the playoffs? I mean, it was pretty ridiculous how many ‘unusual’ calls and just general things went against the Bengals -- but that’s the game. It happens. If you think the refs were a little too tough on Cincy and too loose with KC, you might be (are probably) right -- but then consider with all those headwinds…the 2-to-1+ penalty differential, the one series late where they had to try and stop KC on 3rd & long like 17 times for ‘weird whistles’ no one heard, etc. With all the strange events, and a horrific start by the Bengals -- Cincinnati had a golden opportunity with under a minute left and blew it.
We had the right team…the team that took over the game from about mid-2nd-quarter on. It’s going to be a bitter pill for Cincy -- they have to leave KC thinking that they (the Bengals) were the better team. leave the game thinking the Bengals are/were the better team…but it’s not like KC sucks or anything. The ball bounced KC’s way enough times to get the win in a game between two powerhouses.
4) It sucks to lose that way but just note -- whether you had $10 on this game or $100s or $1000s of dollars at play here…doesn’t it make you feel alive? Doesn’t it make watching football that much better? I love complaining about things in-game not going my way…and cheering for Noah Gray to please get one more catch to pay off a prop…and then just when you think it’s not Cincinnati’s day, they roar right back into the game and almost win it. 3+ hours of pure excitement and attention.
I’ve enjoyed playing the stock market over the years. I used to like playing casual blackjack and poker. But football is the one thing to try to profit from where I feel like I have good information, a good feel to make smart bets (even if the best loses) and then I love watching the outcome play out on TV. Better than any movie or TV show…it’s the ever twists and turns of the NFL. I don’t know if XYZ company is telling me the truth about their earnings or sales, etc. I’m betting a little blind in the stock market -- but football…that I can watch the games, and have a week to rewatch/study, and analyze the data myself and try to figure out facts from fiction going forward.
As much as I rag on the NFL…and it’s rag-able…you gotta hand it to them for the entertainment and intrigue they bring.
You have to respect the game, the betting game, the entertainment value of what the NFL is delivering. And if you think you’re going to win every bet, no matter how sure you are about it (and I was feeling near-invincible the past few weeks) -- anything can happen on any given Sunday. All us Bengals’ bettors…we lost. We climb back on the horse the next two weeks looking for ways to profit off the Super Bowl.
Those who bet on the Chiefs…you are not in the same headspace as the bitter-taste loss betting Cincy here. You’re riding high with your KC cover, as you should. Congrats on your victory.
OK, enough betting woes talk. Let’s talk about the game itself, briefly, before discussing the player notes…
Cincinnati was dreadful for the first quarter. No yards of offense. No points. Mahomes running around like he never got hurt. Burrow getting sacked on every single play it seemed. It looked like the Bengals were doomed, but they only trailed 3-0 after the 1st-quarter…then 6-0 with the FG to start the 2nd-quarter. For 15 minutes of football, KC was the better team. For the next 45 minutes of play -- the Bengals took the lead role in the dance -- but it wasn’t enough.
Trying to micro-analyze any specific spots in this game where either team SHOULDA done whatever we think they should’ve done differently or bemoan some of the penalty calls and overall troubling officiating -- it doesn’t really matter. These are two top NFL teams with the two best QBs on the planet…both had injury situations to cry about…and either team could’ve won in the final minute, but KC did. They’re both great…one team had to win, one had to lose. The team that had the ball last won.
I did feel like this game overview was Cincinnati with a horrible 1st-quarter…then got back on their feet in the 2nd-quarter, with their defense stopping KC over-and-over. Then in the 2nd-half it felt like Cincy was the aggressor, the better team and KC was holding on for dear life. It was a battle of two evenly matched/good teams…slight edge to Cincy on my boxing judge’s scoring card -- but that doesn’t matter, in the end.
Congrats to both teams on an excellent year…definitely the two best teams in the AFC. Cincy has a lot of months to stew over this. KC can feel like they exercised a demon, and now Mahomes and Kelce have two weeks to get healthy to take on Philly.
I hated the outcome, with Cincy not getting the win/cover, as a bettor. As a fan…as an analyst, it was a fun, thrill-ride game, a tense game to watch. What more could I ask for on a Sunday night?
We’ve got one more NFL game to consider betting on to wrap up this season. I’ll be analyzing the big game over the next two weeks, and we’ll do our big Super Bowl video show with Bet The Close and friends to discuss the props leading into it -- and that show the past few years has been a cash register of advice. But I wanted to take a second to thank everyone for following along with all the betting material this playoff season (and in the regular season). I’m (9-3) ATS, (2-1) on best bets in these 2022-23 playoffs…I hope you got some wins/profits in there along with us. I hope the streaming notes behind-the-scenes has been a helpful add-on to the FFM subscription this new year.
Your support of the new website means the world to me…it allows me to stay focused on the game tapes and data/metrics to make me a better scout and football analyst. The more time I have to study day-to-day, the better in-tune I am as a bettor and for Fantasy Football maneuvers all in-season, and Dynasty maneuvers in the offseason.
You think the handicapping season is over…but it is not…not really/traditionally. We got the NFL Draft #1 pick and assorted other things with the draft to wager on -- and then we look at the over/under win total futures for 2023-24 season. On top of all the NFL Draft scouting and Dynasty reports to come. Never a dull moment with football profiteering.
This week is Senior Bowl week, so a lot of practice notes and scouting coming from there…but if I see a potential bet on it, we’ll be discussing that too.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Again, a ton of credit to Patrick Mahomes (29-43 for 326 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT). From barely able to play a week prior with an ankle sprain to playing all the way through this game and making a few clutch throws and not making any real mistakes…and just managing this game/his team against a top opponent, while his WRs were dropping like flies.
The only thing that holds back Mahomes from being a record breaking QB every season is his offensive coordinator (I pray someone hires him as a head coach, but it would only mean Matt Nagy would be the new O-C…so, I guess it doesn’t matter)…and now (2022-23), also holding him back somewhat, is his very underwhelming WR group.
The Chiefs are two good/great WRs away from being the absolute dominant team of the future for years to come. The Chiefs have to get separation from the Bengals…a Bengals team that will be battling each other for as long as Mahomes and Burrow are in their primes (so, another decade+).
Knowing this, it’s a near guarantee that KC will not draft a WR in the first 3-4 rounds of this year’s draft.
-- Joe Burrow (26-41 for 270 yards, 1 TD/2 INT, 4-30-0) has only one barrier to leading the Bengals as the dominant dynasty of the future -- he needs two more good/great offensive linemen. Had Cincy had their three missing starters (Cappa, Williams, Collins) on the O-Line this game, they likely would have won by 3-7-10+ points. That’s a sobering thought…that this Cincy team, a team that I believe is/was the best team in football (two years running), lost a chance at a repeat trip to the Super Bowl AND seizing the mantle as the new dominant team in the sport, the media finally recognizing them -- it slipped out of their hands when two key starting OLs went down a couple weeks ago and couldn’t get back in time for this game.
Knowing this, it’s a near guarantee that Cincinnati will not draft an offensive lineman in the first 3-4 rounds of this year’s draft.
-- Consider what Patrick Mahomes did, in winning this game, with that WR group all a mess…
Mecole Hardman (2-10-0/3) returned to action and played 15 useless snaps. Thankfully, Mecole’s time in KC is over…he’s a free agent after the Super Bowl. He’s gonna find out there is little-to-no market for him…but then again, there probably will be since he played for KC. He’s gonna be a bust free agent, whatever sucker team lands him.
Skyy Moore (3-13-0/7) could be a star, but no chemistry is really developing here as the season toils on. You’d figure it would have been flashing by now. There’s hope for Skyy in 2023+, but it’s not looked as great as this season has tarried.
Kadarius Toney (1-9-0/2) had the perfect Toney moment -- big game, QB hindered, the team needed a playmaker and return man…and Toney got hurt on his lone catch of the game. Missed the rest of the game. Toney has all the physical gifts of a star, but we all have to (I have to) call this for what it has been -- a player/prospect that is gonna break your heart every time.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6-116-1/8) was the WR who stepped up to make plays and have his best game as a Chief. The MVS that I wanted for Fantasy 10th+ round in redrafts to begin the FF season, he finally arrived…21 weeks into the season, he finally paid off! I’m never wrong…just temporarily not right at certain points.
MVS is likely going to be ditched by KC, unless he’s willing to take a big pay cut. KC HAS TO get Mahomes some real WR talent…that doesn’t get hurt every other week.
Big game JuJu (1-7-0/1) was also on full display. He’ll likely be cast out as well. MVS, JuJu, Mecole…all gone in 2023, I predict.
-- Thinking about that last section…and looking at my Travis Kelce notes, makes me think…
That’s the thing about FF…I…we…we all love to call the sleeper shot.
We love Kadarius Toney’s upside. And we totally fear Travis Kelce’s (7-78-1/8) age.
If I had a dollar every time someone pooh-poohed Kelce as an early pick in redrafts the past 2-3-4 years because of his age…
All Kelce does is catch his passes, makes a simple spin move that the defender behind him never seems to realize or guess right on, and TK goes on for the first down or big play every time.
All Toney does is get hurt, miss practices with hamstring issues.
…and yet…I just know Toney is gonna breakout any moment, and I don’t want to miss it.
Not anymore. I’ll go over things I’ve learned from the FF 2022 season to prepare me to be a better FF/Dynasty GM in 2023 over the next few months. Not getting suckered by/chasing too hard the ‘upside’ and blowing off the boring steady/obvious producers is a pillar concept for 2023. We’ve got 8 months to discuss it…and we will. -- when to take the gamble, and when to just take the easy money.
-- But…
I was so ‘right’ on my scouting ahead of the entire football scouting and analyst community on Isiah Pacheco (10-26-0, 5-59-0/6), that I don’t want to suppress my scouting superpowers by not chasing talent hiding in the shadows either. Was Pacheco my ‘call of the year’ or what?
How many Dynasty GMs that subscribed to FFM, who are reading this right now, grabbed Pacheco in the 4th-5th+ round of your Dynasty Rookie Drafts from our April-May scouting and valuations? Raise your hands. No, I mean it…wherever you are, raise your hands in honor -- it was quite the call. Some laughed at me when I said he was on par or better than Breece Hall on various podcasts. You’re not laughing now.
This Pacheco thing has legs for years.
Huge game with Cincy, Mahomes not at 100%, and Jerick McKinnon (4-1-0, 2-17-0/4) is a bit player and blocker while Pacheco catches 5 passes and runs the ball 10 times, and looks like KC’s best weapon among all the RBs and WRs.
If McKinnon is gone in 2023, and I think CEH will be traded -- then Pacheco is gonna be an RB1 in PPR and Non-PPR. The better Kareem Hunt we’ve all been looking for to work with Mahomes.
You’re welcome.
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-- For Cincy, in their big game, needing to establish the run…Joe Mixon (8-19-0, 3-15-0/3) clocked another unimpressive game with low yards per carry. The game last week against Buffalo was such an outlier for what Mixon has been doing this season (mostly disappointing with flashes of big tallies here and there).
Get this, in this game:
Samaje Perine = 43 snaps
Joe Mixon = 23
I think you’ll see the Bengals draft their hope for a future at RB in the 2023 NFL Draft.
-- KC IDP notes…
Whatever bandwagon Tony Romo jumps on/harps on in a game early on…that thing is instantly cursed.
Last week, Romo was indignant that Bills D-C Leslie Frazier wasn’t a head coach already…and the Bengals proceeded to whack the Bills, embarrassing their defense (a defense that also gave up 31 points to Skylar Thompson the week prior).
This week, Romo talked about how great a cornerback Trent McDuffie (6 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PDs) is, and how much he loves him…as we then watched McDuffie’s name on the back of his jersey all game because he was constantly getting beat in coverage.
L’Jarius Sneed (1 tackle) went down early, and you thought that would be a big/critical blow -- but rookie CB Joshua Williams (5 tackles, 1 PD) is a Tariq Woolen in-waiting…but Romo didn’t know anything about that.
You cannot be a great football analyst…and a scratch golfer who plays a full round every day at the same time. I barely have time to eat in a day…and I wish I had that condition where you can’t sleep, but function fine despite it, so I could watch 6 more hours of tape a day, but Tony Romo is wanting to be on the PGA tour and shoots commercials when it rains, and he can’t hit the links that day -- when is he studying the vastness of the NFL and NFL Draft?
This is where you (the mainstream public) get your football information from?
Also note… Tony Romo made more money in the 30 seconds of time he spoke of Trent McDuffie, proclaiming his love/great scouting insights on him, than I will make all year.
Life is not fair.
Joshua Williams is also better than Trent McDuffie, Tony. You’ll see.
KC has some great young secondary pieces that gives them a chance to be ‘over’ Cincy for the years to come.
-- Let’s end on the end…
Joseph Ossai (5 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD, 2 QB hits) was finally starting to breakout the past month+, and then this…that late hit on Mahomes, costing Cincinnati the game.
Hopefully, it adds fuel to his fire to fulfill his talents. He’s a really nice defensive/IDP prospect as a pass rusher and defender of the run/pass as well…and he may be catapulted/inspired forward in 2023 by this event.
…or it psychologically haunts him/ruins him…one or the other.
I know, I’ll never forget what he did.
Snap Counts of Interest:
50 = MVS
40 = Skyy
31 = JuJu
22 = M Kemp
15 = Mecole
04 = Toney
39 = Pacheco
27 = McKinnon
02 = Ronald Jones
66 = Chase
63 = Higgins
48 = Irwin
15 = Boyd (hurt)
