2022 Week 5 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick
Third positive week for FFM all picks ATS. Still no losing record in the Blazing Five. The handicapping season hasn’t been bad, but I am a trends forecaster and want to ride the hot hand, so I would tell you to follow the picks of the handicapping professional, Chris Bilello, who is absolutely destroying it in his ATS picks this season…not only here, but on his show (Bet The Close Podcast) and in Vegas contests. FFM is doing fine, but I would listen to/follow Chris right now -- I am. I adjusted a few of my on the border picks to go with Chris. I factor in the ’Chris Factor’ into my game/betting projections -- that’s how good he is.
Listen to his show every Saturday when we post his show, or even better -- just subscribe (free) to his podcast on Apple or wherever you consume podcasts. Why I need to explain that…I don’t know. It’s a bad media thing. Like if you listen to podcasts…I’m somehow assuming you still have no idea how they work. I’m dumb…that’s why you should follow Chris’s picks.
One trend that stood out Week 4…when all three analysts agree on a pick, it went 6-1 ATS…now 17-10-1 ATS (63%) on the year. My top five picks/Blazing Five for Week 5 were pretty much aligned with the other analysts before they sent their picks over.
Good luck in your betting this week!
Week 4 results…
FFM
All picks straight up: 11-5
ATS: 9-6-1
Best Bet: 0-1
Blazing Five (no TNF): 2-2-1
Calling a dog for an outright win: 0-1
Chris ATS: 11-4-1
Ross ATS: 9-6-1
Chris Best Bet: 1-0
Ross Best Bet: 1-0
When All 3 analysts agree: 6-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 1-0, for me
FFM Survivor: PHI(w)
Chris Survivor: PHI(w)
Ross Survivor: GB(w)
All Underdogs ATS = 6-9-1
---------------------------------------
YTD results…
All picks straight up: 38-25-1
ATS: 34-28-2 (54.8%)
Best Bet: 3-1
Blazing Five (no TNF): 12-6-2 (67%)
Calling a dog for an outright win: 2-4
Chris ATS: 43-19-1 (maybe you should listen to the expert!)
Ross ATS: 29-33-2
Chris Best Bet: 3-0
Ross Best Bet: 2-1
When All 3 analysts agree: 17-10-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 3-4, for me
FFM Survivor: BAL(W), BUF(W), LAC(L), PHI(w)
Chris Survivor: BAL(W), GB(W), LAC(L), PHI(w)
Ross Survivor: DEN(L), XXX, BUF (L), GB(w)
All Underdogs ATS = 32-30-2
-----------------------
Week 5 Picks….
ATL at TB (-8.5)
The Computer says: TB by 16.3 (a 7.8 spread differential)
The Bucs are going to destroy Atlanta, especially if Pitts is out…with CPatt out too.
*SURVIVOR PICK* *BEST BET*
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: TB
Ross Jacobs: TB
NYG at GB (-8.0)
The Computer says: GB by 15.7 (a 7.7 spread differential)
Bet of the Year candidate…the Giants are all banged up everywhere, and they stink anyway…totally overrated on a fortuitous schedule so far. While Green Bay is still being punished for losing Week 1 to Minnesota and then going to OT with New England last week. Green Bay is a sleeping giant just now figuring itself out. We think they are going to destroy NYG at Green Bay.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: GB
Ross Jacobs: GB
PHI (-5.0) at ARI
The Computer says: PHI by 1.5 (a 6.5 spread differential)
I’ll take the best team in football playing in perfect conditions against a really flimsy Arizona team.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: ARI
Ross Jacobs: PHI *BEST BET* *SURVIVOR*
DAL at LAR (-5.0) *Outright underdog upset*
The Computer says: DAL by 0.3 (a 5.3 spread differential)
Outright upset call…the Rams have so many injuries in the secondary and O-Line with no run game that they are not even a .500 team capability right now. Yeah, I know they have Aaron Donald…that’s the only player the mainstream is aware of that they have, according to every Rams involved national TV pregame show. I hope Dallas smashes the Rams here to wake mainstream analysts up to the vast problems the Rams have.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: DAL
Ross Jacobs: DAL
LV at KC (-7.5)
The Computer says: KC by 2.4 (a 5.1 spread differential)
Too many points to give to a scrappy Raiders team that isn’t afraid of KC…the Raiders can turn their whole season around with a win, and it wouldn’t shock me if they did.
This is a Chris ‘best bet’, so pay attention.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: LV *BEST BET*
Ross Jacobs: LV
CIN at BAL (-3.0) *Outright dog for the win*
The Computer says: CIN by 1.7 (a 4.7 spread differential)
Gotta take the points PLUS the better team, right? The Bengals destroyed the Ravens twice last year. I love this pick, but Chris doesn’t…so, now I’m worried.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: BAL
Ross Jacobs: CIN
DET at NE (-3.0)
The Computer says: NE by 0.1 (a 2.9 spread differential)
The Lions cannot stop the run, so the Pats will run 40+ times and this will be a lower scoring game where the Lions can win or keep it close due to the Pats starting a rookie/backup QB, who is good, but not ready yet…because he’s been a 3rd-stringer all year.
Both of the other analysts disagree, which is logical. If Mac Jones were 90%+…I’d switch this to the Patriots.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NE
Ross Jacobs: NE
SEA at NO (-5.5)
The Computer says: NO by 3.2 (a 2.3 spread differential)
Too many points to give for a bad Saints team and a not-too-awful Seahawks team that can keep it close.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NO
Ross Jacobs: SEA
MIA (-3.5) at NYJ
The Computer says: MIA by 1.3 (a 2.2 spread differential)
Miami is clearly the better team, but the whole Tua distraction and going on the road to NYJ…where the Jets are starting to have moments of something building…I’ll take the points and play it safe, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Dolphins rally to all this and stomp NYJ.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: NYJ
Ross Jacobs: MIA
IND at DEN (-3.5) TNF
The Computer says: DEN by 1.7 (a 1.8 spread differential)
I don’t trust DEN…I don’t trust IND…let’s just take the points.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: IND
Ross Jacobs: DEN
TEN (-2.5) at WSH
The Computer says: TEN by 2.9 (a 0.4 spread differential)
Tennessee is so crushed with injuries that it’s hard to take them seriously, but they are so well coached…they find a way. Washington is not well coached, and they are losing O-Linemen every week. I’ll take the steady miracle working Titans.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: TEN
Ross Jacobs: WSH
CHI at MIN (-7.0)
The Computer says: MIN by 7.3 (a 0.3 spread differential)
The Bears are terrible, but the Vikings haven’t shown that they’re that great either. It’s a lot of points for any NFL game not involving an elite team/QB. I tried to pinch my nose and take Chicago, but I can’t…the bears are (2-2) but they should be (0-4)…the one win in the monsoon doesn’t count for anything.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: MIN
Ross Jacobs: CHI
LAC (-3.0) at CLE
The Computer says: LAC by 2.8 (a 0.2 spread differential)
One of my fatal flaws in football life has been too much in love with the Chargers. I need to correct that starting here. If the Browns go and just straight-up beat LAC -- they should fire Staley. Not trying to be reactionary or a ‘fan’, but this team should win, has to win this game. Which means they won’t.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: CLE
Ross Jacobs: CLE
PIT at BUF (-14.0)
The Computer says: BUF by 14.2 (a 0.2 spread differential)
I think Buffalo could/should win this by 4+ scores, but 14.0 is so much to give to a mildly-not-awful team like the Steelers. But facing a rookie QB, I’ll take the Bills to roll.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: PIT *SURVIVOR*
Ross Jacobs: PIT
SF (-6.5) at CAR
The Computer says: SF by 6.6 (a 0.1 spread differential)
I know I should take Carolina and the points, but I just can’t do it. The Panthers are probably the worst team in the league, all things considered…and now they’ve lost Jeremy Chinn. I just can’t take Carolina in a game unless I get 8-10 points…and maybe not even then.
The NFL should step in and fire Matt Rhule and Frank Reich, same day, to help their franchises through the season…because they cannot help themselves. Couldn’t happen to a nicer owner/billionaire than David Tepper.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: CAR
Ross Jacobs: SF
HOU at JAX (-7.0)
The Computer says: JAX by 7.1 (a 0.1 spread differential)
I know the Jags are now great, but this is a lot of points…and Houston is not the worst bad team ever, but I have to go with the Jaguars as well as they’ve been playing.
Chris ‘Bet The Close’ Podcast: JAX
Ross Jacobs: JAX
