2022 Week 4 Game Recap: Seahawks 48, Lions 45 (by Ross Jacobs)
Well this was a clown festival. It looked more like Arena Football out there than the stuffy old NFL. Both teams were airing it out and defense was optional.
Seattle jumped on top early here but as usual the Lions are hard to stop when playing from behind. Detroit clawed their way back in it but every time they would pull close, the Seahawks would go right down the field for another score.
After four weeks the Lions are the #1 scoring offense in the league...but also the #32 scoring defense. The Seahawks are 11th in scoring and 31st in defense! Of the two I'm definitely more in the Lions camp than the Seahawks. They have played a much tougher schedule than the Seahawks and have hung in every game. The one real team that Seattle played destroyed them. They aren't a good team and while Geno Smith is playing well, I believe reality is going to set in for this team soon. I still believe the Lions might find a way to sneak in the backdoor of the playoffs provided they can get the defense to play just bad instead of puke worthy.
Fantasy Player Notes:
– Ok, let's start with Geno Smith (23-30 for 320 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 7-49-1) had a monster fantasy day, but I have to remind everyone this came against the only defense worse than his own. He got a lot of credit from the media after he didn't crap himself against the Broncos but it still wasn't impressive statistically. In the 3 previous weeks Geno has led the Seattle offense to 17, 7, and 23 points...1 point less than what they scored in this one game! DO NOT get suckered in by this nonsense. The schedule is about to get harder, not super hard the next 3-4-5 weeks but harder than the jello pudding Detroit calls a defense.
Geno is playing smart, efficient ball but it's not going to last. RC isn't kidding when he says they just play-action rollout right every other play. I thought he was kidding but nope! Defenses are going to catch onto this very soon and we're going to see Geno take a bunch of sacks and/or throw a pick 6 right to the defense with pressure in his face. There are just better QB2's than Geno.
– As Geno goes, so goes DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Translation: if you have them try to sell high now while this team is being viewed favorably. Metcalf you can keep if you can't get anything better for him (and you probably can't since most people rightly don't trust this yet). He's 100% the top look for Geno almost every play because of his size. Geno can take two throws with Metcalf and they both suit his style. 1) Quick slant inside where nobody can get around Metcalf's massive frame. And 2) High and outside on a fade where Metcalf can go up and get it. It's a perfect fit for what DK wants to do anyways so this connection is going to somewhat work. I just don't expect the volume to be high enough to sustain a WR1 season, but maybe he can be a nice WR2.
Lockett is doomed in this offense. He's not going to get the deep shots he lived off of with Russ and Geno doesn't look for him nearly as often as Metcalf. His best days are behind him unfortunately.
– Finally Rashaad Penny gets going...right as we all bench/cut him...typical of this season. Penny looks just fine, exactly like he did last year. I'm not worried about him at all but I am worried about this offense. Before this game he had carry counts of 12, 6, and 14 but averaged nearly 5 ypc in every game except the 6 carry day against the 49ers, the best run defense in football. So long as Seattle projects to not get blown out I think it's safe to keep starting Penny. He may not blow up every week but he's one of the best players on the team and is capable of ripping off long runs at any time.
Don't believe the narrative that Kenneth Walker is coming for Penny's job. He is clearly inferior to Penny right now. It's not even close as I’m watching them. Yes, Walker had more snaps here than he has past weeks but it's just part of the normal rotation. He comes in about every 3rd drive or so. He's not bad but he is not usurping Penny without an injury.
– Remember when RC and I told you last year that there wasn't a massive difference between Matt Stafford and Jared Goff? Through four weeks here are their stats:
Stafford: 106/150, 70.7% Comp Pct., 1015 yards, 4 TD/6 INT
Goff: 92/151, 60.9% Comp Pct., 1126 yards, 11 TD/3 INT
Goff is going to have a very solid season when we look back. There will be some bumps in the road against better defenses like Buffalo, but by and large his schedule is quite favorable and obviously they are going to have to keep throwing the ball aggressively to make up for their defense. He's not perfect, his accuracy can wane a little at times, but he's much, much better than the media told you and there is zero chance he's getting replaced or benched.
– Through four games the number 6 overall back in ppr leagues is...Jamaal Williams. I've been a proponent of fading 1st round RBs for years and this is why. Is Jamaal likely to finish the season this high? No. Swift will be back at some point and take most of that work. But while Jamaal is active, he's as functional and useful as any back in the league because of his situation. You can throw a backfield together in fantasy out of “junk” RBs that nobody else wants and get a quality season from them collectively. You don't have to pick the one guy that scores 20 points every week. Much better to get a collection of 3-4 that can score 15-16 each week and rotate them as necessary while adding additional help from the waiver wire.
I want everyone to repeat after me. 1st round RBs...
NEVER AGAIN
When Jamaal rotated out it was a mixture of Craig Reynolds and Justin Jackson as expected and, also as expected, Reynolds was the far more explosive player. Honestly, he really should be splitting 50/50 with Jamaal while Swift is out but hey I'm not a coach, right?
– Frustratingly for me, I had a lot of Kalif Raymond stock in DFS this week and Raymond absolutely was the first look for Goff most of the game. It just wasn't connecting well and then Raymond got banged up just as the game got out of hand in the middle of the 3rd Q. He should have had the day that Josh Reynolds got but that's how it happens sometimes.
Reynolds was the beneficiary of a short TD and a bunch of very late work in the 4th quarter. Before that he was a ghost, maybe the 4th option at best in the passing game. Do not count on this repeating.
Another favorite of mine and RC's, Tom Kennedy, had himself a nice day and it could have been more if Goff would actually look for him. He was obviously the best receiver on Detroit's side but for some reason they just refuse to make him a starter. He's a damn good player.
– TJ Hockenson (8-179-2/12) had a monster day but it was aided in large part by an 81 yard reception late where he caught the ball near the left sideline and should have easily been bumped out of bounds by the defense but the defender put no effort into it and Hockenson just kept running and even looked behind him with a confused look on his face like he couldn't believe what happened. He's the top option when Amon-Ra is out but his target totals before this were 7, 7, 4. That's more his usual fare. Not bad, not great, a top 5-8 TE.
When Amon-Ra St Brown comes back he's the obvious #1 here and a locked-in WR1 in ppr leagues. We'll have to see if he can practice this week first.
– It seems safe to say DJ Chark is droppable in redraft leagues. When everyone is healthy he's the 3rd-4th receiving option at best and that's before Jameson Williams enters the picture. There are better things to chase than a Chark explosion at this point.
Speaking of Jameson, he's eligible to come off the PUP list this week and start practicing with the team. It will probably be a few weeks until he's ready to go, possibly for the Dallas game after the bye or maybe a little longer, but we should see him for the last half of the year.
It's hard to know what to expect from him at first. He's coming off an ACL tear but that doesn't seem to mean much these days. I imagine the team starts him off slowly but it ramps up pretty quick and he's the team's #2 receiver within a week or two of playing again. What's that worth in fantasy? I'm not exactly sure but I know he's very, very fast, a great receiver, and in an aggressive offense so probably pretty good. We'll look at stashing him on our bench in another few weeks depending on what else is going on and what new injuries are ravaging our teams then.
– I don't expect D'Andre Swift back until after the team's week 6 bye. They'll want to give him as much time to rest as possible and maybe we'll see him ready for Dallas in week 7. When he comes back I'd also expect a lighter workload for him, at least early on, because I think the coaching staff has lost confidence in his ability to stay healthy. He's a great player when he's on the field, but staying on the field is very important too and he hasn't proved he can do that.
IDP Notes:
– Have we mentioned that rookie 6th rounder Malcolm Rodriguez (11 tackles, 1 tfl) is a good player? Because he is. One of our favorite under the radar players from the 2022 draft, he's already ascended to a starting role and good for the Detroit coaches recognizing it and pushing the obvious. He's going to be a 10 year starter for them.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Lockett
53 = Metcalf
29 = Goodwin
19 = Eskridge
51 = Dissly
41 = Fant
25 = Parkinson
48 = Penny
25 = Walker
65 = Hockenson
24 = Wright
62 = Josh Reynolds
60 = Kennedy
38 = Raymond
33 = Cephus
37 = Jamaal
24 = Craig Reynolds
9 = Justin Jackson
