2022 Week 4 NFL Handicapping: All Picks ATS and Survivor Pool Pick
A very solid Weeks 1-2, followed by an underwater Week 3 overall ATS, but more importantly FFM moved to 3-0 on the best bet of the week and clocked a 2-2-1 Blazing Five to stay well ahead in the Blazing Five at a 71.4% clip so far this season.
I got bounced in Survivor Pools where I went LAC…still alive where I went Philly in a few spots. For this reporting, I went with LAC and got whacked.
Week 3 results…
FFM
All picks straight up: 8-8
ATS: 6-9-1
Best Bet: 1-0
Blazing Five (no TNF): 2-2-1
Calling a dog for an outright win: 1-2
Chris ATS: 10-5-1
Ross ATS: 8-7-1
Chris Best Bet: 1-0
Ross Best Bet: 1-0
When All 3 analysts agree: 4-2-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 1-1, for me
FFM Survivor: LAC(L)
Chris Survivor: LAC(L)
Ross Survivor: BUF(L)
All Underdogs ATS = 9-6-1
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YTD results…
All picks straight up: 27-20-1
ATS: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
Best Bet: 3-0
Blazing Five (no TNF): 10-4-1 (71.4%)
Calling a dog for an outright win: 2-3
Chris ATS: 32-15-1 (maybe you should listen to the expert!)
Ross ATS: 20-27-1
Chris Best Bet: 3-0
Ross Best Bet: 1-1
When All 3 analysts agree: 11-8-1
When both analysts disagree with my pick: 2-4, for me
FFM Survivor: BAL(W), BUF(W), LAC(L)
Chris Survivor: BAL(W), GB(W), LAC(L)
Ross Survivor: DEN(L), XXX, BUF (L)
All Underdogs ATS = 26-21-1
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Week 4 Picks….
KC (-1.5) at TB *Underdog outright win*
The Computer says: TB by 5.2 (a 7.7 spread differential)
Love this game for Tampa Bay. The public and Vegas loves KC every week, so much so the line is always inflated…and people are souring on TB not being explosive, but getting WRs back + that defense, I think KC is in for a rude awakening as the better team all-around, AT HOME smashes here.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: KC
Ross Jacobs:
JAX at PHI (-6.5)
The Computer says: PHI by 10.9 (a 4.4 spread differential)
You play the Eagles, right now, like you would the Bills the first 2 weeks of the season, before they lost a bunch of their secondary going into Week 3 -- you see the best team crushing people, and you hitch your wagon to it until it won't run no more. The Eagles have taken that Bills 'best in class' mantle.
I'll ride with a great team and have no problem laying -6.5 when they are wrecking opponents…not just slipping by them every other week.
*FFM SURVIVOR PICK*
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: PHI *BEST BET* and *SURVIVOR*
Ross Jacobs:
NE at GB (-9.5)
The Computer says: GB by 13.3 (a 3.8 spread differential)
The Packers are really starting to hum and the Patriots are going in without Mac Jones, and WITH Brian Hoyer…which is a big problem. I already liked GB here if Mac was playing, now it's best bet territory.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: NE
Ross Jacobs:
BUF (-3.0) at BAL
The Computer says: BUF by 6.8 (a 3.8 spread differential)
The Ravens have beaten two bad AFC East teams and lost to a mediocre one…I think they face the Mack Daddy of the AFC East and get smacked around…especially if BUF gets a few secondary guys back, which looks like they might.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: BAL
Ross Jacobs:
DEN at LV (-1.5)
The Computer says: LV by 4.8 (a 3.3 spread differential)
The Raiders are due to win…they should be (1-2) right now, possibly (2-1). Denver should be (0-3) but is (2-1)…they're due for a loss. The 'dues' converge for LV here.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: LV
Ross Jacobs:
MIA at CIN (-4.0)
The Computer says: CIN by 7.3 (a 3.3 spread differential)
Tua in question, and not that he's everything but he's way better for this offense than Teddy. So, having to make a THU midday pick building in the Tua risk – it's a heavy lean towards Cincy.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: CIN
Ross Jacobs:
SEA at DET (-4.5)
The Computer says: DET by 7.7 (a 3.2 spread differential)
I really like the way the Lions are playing, coach's decision in-game aside. They have fought hard and lost to PHI and MIN, two of the better NFC teams. I think they'll whack Seattle at home. I'd be more excited, but the Lions early injury list is scary…but by Sunday it could be fine.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: DET
Ross Jacobs:
WSH at DAL (-3.0)
The Computer says: DAL by 0.3 (a 2.7 spread differential)
I thought Washington fought Philly, the best team in the NFL right now, pretty well considering the beating being delivered on tape Week 3. Washington is gritty, and Dallas has a glass jaw. I wouldn't be surprised if Washington upset Dallas here.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: DAL
Ross Jacobs:
MIN (-2.5) at NO
The Computer says: MIN by 5.1 (a 2.6 spread differential)
Dennis Allen is doing everything in his power to lose on so many levels…he needs to start doing the opposite of whatever his instincts are like George Costanza did that one time. I'm going with the coach that has is S together…who also has the better team, with or without Cook.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: MIN
Ross Jacobs:
CHI at NYG (-2.5)
The Computer says: NYG by 0.2 (a 2.3 spread differential)
No conviction on these teams or this game, so I'll take the points for a pick.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: NYG
Ross Jacobs:
TEN at IND (-3.0)
The Computer says: IND by 1.0 (a 2.0 spread differential)
I will almost always take the Titans against anyone if they're getting points.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: TEN
Ross Jacobs:
CLE (-1.5) at ATL
The Computer says: CLE by 0.1 (a 1.6 spread differential)
I have no strong feelings here. Just taking the home points.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: ATL
Ross Jacobs:
LAR at SF (-1.5)
The Computer says: SF by 0.6 (a 0.9 spread differential)
The 49ers come in more banged up than the 49ers. I'll just take the Rams with points just because…but nothing would surprise me here. They both haven't played well, so one of them is due to play a great game. I just don't know which one.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: LAR
Ross Jacobs:
ARI at CAR (-1.5)
The Computer says: ARI by 1.9 (a 0.4 spread differential)
I would not be surprised with any outcome from this game, so I'll just take the points. These are two depressing teams.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: CAR
Ross Jacobs:
NYJ at PIT (-3.5)
The Computer says: PIT by 3.2 (a 0.3 spread differential)
I don't love the Jets, but I don't love the Steelers either. I'm taking the points/the dog 'just because' in this instance.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: NYJ
Ross Jacobs:
LAC (-5.0) at HOU
The Computer says: LAC by 5.1 (a 0.1 spread differential)
The Chargers are due for a reversal of fortune after getting embarrassed last week.
Chris 'Bet The Close' Podcast: HOU
Ross Jacobs:
