RC's daily streaming notes on football, and other, things going on this week...
Just an open page for me to drop notes/ideas/things I'm hearing/seeing/working on or just caffeinated or lack of sleep thoughts on football items.
12/21 SUN
(6:49amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
*MAYBE* Sunday Morning Sit-Start Show 10:30amET-NoonET. Show access will post around 10amET+. (Depends upon my father’s surgery situation)
Week 16 final projections update will post around 12:30pmET
-- Life in Jacksonville...
Well, I spent 5-6 hours at the hospital last night with my dad (1.5 hours of that driving my family to/back...of course, the only hospital that had a spot for him was 45+ minutes from our rental/the whole other side of Jacksonville area we are at). My dad is doing better and better as the weekend presses on. Today/this morning he finds out if he is getting meds for infection and a stent put in and released midday. OR he is going to have kidney stone surgery and needs to stay over until the evening or the next day.
Today’s Sunday Morning Sit-Start show...I won’t know until 9-10am if I have the time...and if I can do it/have a spot or the equipment to do it on the fly. ‘To be determined’ once my tech support son can help me with a setup for ‘on the fly’ ability.
We also might need to do more 11am-Noon vs. 10:30am-NoonET but we’ll see.
It’s a ‘show time decision’ for me to do it today. I think I will figure it out, but I need time/help this morning figuring it out.
== Early Injury News ==
Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) = Expected to play today, possibly limited...(so, only 90% of the targets ahead of Wilson, not 100%...). One to watch if he really does get activated. I still think there is a chance Arizona comes to their senses, but...NFL team rarely have ‘senses’.
Drake London (PCL sprain) = Expected to play today.
Tee Higgins (concussion) = Likely to play today, probably cleared...but Cincy could shut him down.
Woody Marks (ankle) = Still iffy but looks like he will play.
Nick Chubb (ribs) = Going to play today.
Tyrod Taylor (groin) = Likely active as the backup today (I cannot imagine that he wont take over from Cook at some point unless the Jets are trying to lose).
Kyle Hamilton (ankle) = Trending towards playing today.
Phil Mafah = Confirmed OUT (not activated from IR).
== SNF Double Headers First Reactions ==
PHI at WSH
-- An expected outcome...a little touch and go early on, Washington was putting up a fight (led 10-7 at the half), but Philly eventually seized control...and the Commanders losing Marcus Mariota in-game was the final nail in the coffin.
-- The Eagles’ win on Saturday was the final nail in the coffin for the Cowboys (6–7–1), who can no longer win the division and have been mathematically eliminated from Wild Card contention. https://x.com/barryonhere/status/2002546845676155068?s=43
-- All the stars were solid for Philly. No letdowns. Dallas Goedert caught a TD pass to continue the momentum of TEs scoring nice vs. the Washington TE defense.
-- On the Commanders side, my note is...I watched Jacory Croskey-Merritt look so good here with his limited touches, but Kliff Kingsbury wants to use Chris Rodriguez...so, ‘let the losses mount’.
-- Jake Elliott missed three field goals in this game.
GB at CHI
-- The Packers lost Jordan Love in-game, Josh Jacobs and Christian Watson were not ‘right’ all game, Romeo Doubs hurt late game, Micah Parsons and Zach Tom out before we started...Green Bay barely stood a chance here, but they had this game in hands in the 4th-quarter, down to 2+ minutes left...and lost. https://x.com/sleeperhq/status/2002565981118607477?s=43
The Bears vs. the Lions for the division title from here...Bears need to win Week 17 (SF) or the Lions to lose to MIN. If CHI loses and DET wins Week 17...Week 18 Detroit at Chicago is for all the marbles.
-- Josh Jacobs ruined some people’s FF week by trying to play, forcing many to have to ride with it...and it was a dud.
Where are the ‘never bench your studs’ know-it-alls now on/post-Jacobs and Watson disasters? They only knowingly proclaim that AFTER it went well for the ‘stud’. Not benching your studs here likely will cost you an FF title (if you had those affected guys).
And it made sense to run with them, depending on options, to go with Jacobs or Watson. Not making fun...just I’m mad that Jacobs suckered everyone by being such a warrior. No way for any of us to know how good/bad he was.
-- Caleb Williams looks like the better version of Cam Newton now. His ‘feet’ won the Bears this game. His ‘feet’ open up his passing game. Keep him locked in the pocket...not so hot...he starts running, and he is gold...and he is starting to run/scramble more-and-more with much more confidence and ability over the defense. He made some running plays scrambling off a pass that were sublime late in the game.
When Justin Fields went on a bit of a mini-run as a decent QB...it was when his running went from panic running to calm/experienced running and it opened up the passing with the defenses scared of his running. Caleb is becoming the 10x better Justin Fields.
https://x.com/bheintzskol/status/2002415009653997864?s=43
-- Coach of the Year odds now (Vegas/DK)...
+150 = Vrabel (only North/East coaster...the media wants to give it to him, but they can’t if they don’t win the division)
+250 = Mike Macdonald
+350 = Ben Johnson
+500 = Kyle Shanahan
+1000 = Liam Coen
== Playoff odds (national odds, not FFMs) after Saturday ==
NFC Playoff
Odds% to Make It
100% = Seattle Seahawks (Clinched)
100% = Philadelphia Eagles (Clinched Division)
100% = Los Angeles Rams (Clinched)
99.5% = Chicago Bears (win one of next two, but might be underdogs in both?)
98.2% = San Francisco 49ers
84.1% = Green Bay Packers
75.2% = Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-------------
36.4% = Detroit Lions
24.8% = Carolina Panthers
NFC Playoff
Odds% to Make It
100% = Denver Broncos (Clinched)
99.9% = New England Patriots
99.8% = Buffalo Bills
97.3% = Jacksonville Jaguars
94.7% = Houston Texans
93.5% = Los Angeles Chargers
55.9% = Pittsburgh Steelers
-----------------
44.1% = Baltimore Ravens
14.8% = Indianapolis Colts
-- New Hierarchy list for the next month...’The Waddle List’.
Ross and I were debating something flippant I said about Jaylen Waddle...something like, ‘I think Waddle is very average in this era...and there’s probably 50-100 other WRs like him now, in this era.’ Ross disagreed.
So, I had the idea to test my theory out...are there 50+ other WRs better than Waddle? So, let’s go in our usual alphabetical order, a new team’s WRs considered each day until the end...and I’m gonna use Waddle as may baseline and make a RC’s hierarchy of all WRs, who if were an NFL GM, I would take ahead of Waddle...today for 2025/2026 usage for my fictitious NFL franchise I am magically the GM for.
Four buckets we will put WRs into (designated below).
We start the debut with Arizona.
CLEARY better than Waddle:
Michael Wilson
BETTER than Waddle:
X
SIMILAR range of Waddle but I’ll take them:
X
**JAYLEN WADDLE Line of Demarcation**
Big names I propose are ‘LESS THAN Waddle’:
Marvin Harrison
-------------------
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=======================
12/20 SAT
(8:24amET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Game Report day...all the remaining game reports planned to post.
Week 16 projections update planned approx. 8-10pmET range.
FFM News
Anything else that pops up, and any new betting items I might see. All my last two days of bets are updated on the betting tracker/portfolio.
-- OK, first things first...a mostly successful trip to Jacksonville. All checks out well for me. The next level/steps for radiation are marching on in Mid-January some my pre-work/scans then late January it’s ‘game on’. Thank you everybody for your prayers!
I say ‘mostly successful‘ because...once I was done with my stuff, I was on my way to our rental house to meet up with my family who was already there setting up and to be ready for my kids coming in later last night, etc. I was on my way over to the house when my sister called and said she’s taking my dad to the hospital/ER.
He’d been sick all week, on and off. He was fine when he got to Jacksonville, but then sick feeling soon after. And he’s in good shape typically...a man in his 75+ years, who still goes to work every day.
So long story short...they tested him for various things and were gonna send him to a main hospital in Jacksonville, but the main-main hospital (downtown) was full. Two others 45 minutes away from our temp homebase were looked at as options. At 4-5am they figured out the issue...kidney stone causing an infection. He wasn’t feeling kidney stone pain (he’s had a million of them, it’s our family curse) but the infection was wiping him out. So, ultimately good news (‘just’ a kidney stone/infection...nothing worse).
BUT...he is going to have to have surgery. He’s stuck in the hospital for now...for a while. It’s been a long night into a short morning and it’s gonna be a turned upside-down weekend/week for him and the family gathering. But it could’ve been worse. Just a bad time for him but now getting the right meds and recovering. So, he’s feeling better...but will be having surgery this upcoming week. So...an extended stay in Jacksonville!
What a night/wee hours of the morning start to this ‘early Christmas’ event our family has put together!
-- During everything going on in Jacksonville yesterday, I kept an eye on all things football...fortunately not too chaotic a day. Nothing incredibly unexpected. Josh Jacobs starting to trend towards being out or very much ‘game time decision’ is the #1 radical thing happening. #1 according to my own personal FF-life...my continued prayers for Marv Harrison to just ‘take it easy’...’relax’...’let your body heal up’. Nothing to play for at stake.
I’ll discuss those two things in a moment, but I wanted to offer this FF-help to those that need it going into the weird ‘Saturday games’ doubleheader disrupting the usual football flow...and FF-playoff time...
-- FF-Playoff ASSISTANCE...
If you like a sanity check or to debate your starting lineup for this week, or to think through strategy as a huge favorite or underdog (after TNF)...and ultimately after Sat. games...I am going to open things up for anyone to send me questions/situations, etc., via email.
It’s hard to put EVERYTHING you have questions/ideas on into a little chat space on YouTube, so it’s best to lay out all the details in an email then we can go back & forth from there.
You can start that anytime...starting now, but I will make a special post with instructions and my direct email if you need it.
Rule #1...please don’t use an old email between us to re-reply on for the 30th time over the past 3 years we’ve communicated on to pose a question. Make a fresh email.
Rule #2...have a unique subject line so I can get a feel for the email/that it is playoff related, etc., don’t run the risk of it looking like a not important email or easily lost among several of them incoming.
All the rules and needs for emailing in, if needed, will be on a post coming out ASAP.
-- Josh Jacobs...
I sent notification out later last night that he was headed towards doubtful and a true ‘game time decision’.
If it’s FF-mattered for you, you’ve already taken actions if you could days/weeks ago.
But, to give my prediction on today...I think one of two things happen, and I’ll list them in what I think most likely happens:
1) I think he will be ruled out. (50% belief)
I think he’s dealing with multiple injuries, and they are praying for a miracle and also trying to keep the Bears on their toes, for whatever that means.
2) I think he will try to play and have a HIGH risk of getting hurt early and being done for the day early (25% belief)...a bad FF-start.
3) I think he will do the ‘Josh Jacobs thing’ and hobble out there and be mostly fine but rotate more than usual with Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks. (25% belief)
-- Marvin Harrison...
Still has a heel issue. He is not committing to anything, nor is Arizona...it’s a lot of ‘questionable’ and ‘we’ll see’.
I think he’s trying to show everyone he’s willing to fight through it for his teammates and America, but that Arizona is going to do the smart thing and shut him down...there’s no reason to risk him not at 100%, since he is God’s gift to WRs.
My prediction...
1) Marv is ‘inactive’...and then Mike Wilson-Njigba is ‘game on’. (70%)
WR1 for ‘Big Stats Mike’ without MHJ...''Big Stats Mike' is his newly assigned nickname I’m trying out, or BSM for short.
BSM > MHJ or JSN
2) Marv gives it a go...has his usual 4-5 catches for 50+ yards and has a HIGH risk of reinjuring and leaving the game early. The second he starts limping again, he could be done for the game. (30%)
BSM is a WR2 with MHJ active. I just don’t think they’ll go away from Mike anymore...not like last time MHJ popped his head back up.
Instead of WR1 Marv and WR3 Mike...it’s more WR2 Mike, WR2/3 Marv working together.
In drills this week, BSM was working as the lead WR and the first guy taking a rep in drills.
-- Tee Higgins...looks like he is gonna get cleared and play Sunday. FYI. A strong prediction, not official fact, from me.
-- It’s gonna be a crazy day/weekend/week for me. Football and taking care of the family and my dad now...an unexpected twist.
I am taking all the football calls and texts from sources and going through data and info and news, it’s just I have little time to put major reports together. We will have game reports as I get them done and news updates posts as I get them.
I plan to do a projections update ahead of the GB-CHI game (7-8pm), probably NOT before the PHI-WSH game which isn’t as volatile as GB-CHI.
-- By request, and because I have lost time to start my new ‘LIST’...here’s the QB Hierarchy updated with two names added by request:
-- DAILY ITEM: For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.
-- FINAL 2.0? --
Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Stafford, Baker Mayfield (healthy) Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy
Drake Maye (not ready to put him in the upper tier yet), Jaxson Dart, Jared Goff, Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Bo Nix, Lamar Jackson
Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Cam Ward, Caleb Williams, Mac Jones, Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence, Aaron Rodgers, Michael Penix, Jacoby Brissett, Will Levis (almost forgot to put him on)
J.J. McCarthy (is trying hard to get to the next tier), Tyson Bagent, Tyler Shough, C.J. Stroud (I don’t recognize this 2025 QB), Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Bryce Young, Shedeur Sanders, Marcus Mariota, Riley Leonard, Davis Mills, Dillon Gabriel, Kyler Murray, Kenny Pickett
Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers (I guess we should put him on?), Spencer Rattler, Tyrod Taylor, Deshaun Watson, Justin Fields, Quinn Ewers, Brady Cook, Zach Wilson, Adrian Martinez
12/19 FRI
(7:26pmET)
-- Today’s Agenda...
Game Reports that we have.
FFM News briefs throughout the day.
Week 16 projections update planned approx. 9pm-MidnightET range to allow for the West Coast injury reports...OR worst-case Saturday morning...depends on my travel and appointments, gonna be a crazy day today (more on that below).
Anything else that pops up, and any new betting I might see.
-- It’s Jacksonville day/weekend for me. I travel to JAX for a couple of appointments Friday/today and then meet up with some family to spend the weekend having fun and scoping out places to stay for my 8-week radiation program coming up late January.
So, today I’m travelling to JAX and then around Jacksonville later day...hopefully no delays or issues. I will be keeping up with the football news as I go and sending App notifications on anything hot. Will be able to post news/info midday and then I’m not sure when in the second half of the day...may not be until 7-9pm before I’m settled into our group rental house. I’m keeping up with it all and will post news and thoughts on it when I can in the 2nd-half of the day (ET).
Projections update could be as late as 10-11pmET+ Friday/tonight. We’ll see. All depends on smooth travel to all the things I gotta do and places I need to go to. Should be fine.
Our Sunday Sit-Start show is still on. I’ll test the systems Saturday, but should all be workable.
.
== TNF First Reactions... ==
(written within the hour after the game ended)
-- The weather hysteria all day/s going into this game ended up to not be an issue/had zero impact. That’s basically happened with every supposed weather hysteria moment this season.
-- Two of the top NFL teams, via overall record, played a game in which we watched them both try to out-stupid each other for 3+ hours. I’m not going to waste time complaining about it or listing the minute details.
But Seattle ultimately wins the ‘who is less dumb’ bowl and shifts the division title and the #1 seed battle to (likely) the winner of their Week 18 game vs. the 49ers.
-- Pretty much this whole season, the weather fears have turned out to be a joke...but enough pregame hysteria here to make people shift off Matt Stafford some...and he only had 457 yards passing and 3 TDs.
He should’ve had 5 TDs and the Rams winning this game by double-digits but between the refs and Sean McVay constant run play calls (and getting stuffed) in key spots that Stafford should’ve been throwing instead...so you’ll have to ‘settle’ for this tally from Stafford, who may have just lost the MVP most likely despite 457 yards passing.
-- Rashid Shaheed changed this game on a punt return TD and then a long jet sweep. He’s not worthy of seeing an actual pass target in the biggest game of the year for Seattle...even after he showed he’s a game changer.
The NFL is absolutely inexplicable.
You either FF-possess the good team’s/offense’s #1 WR (JSN, Puka) or you FF-slum it with weekly randos like Shaheed, Alec Pierce, Ricky Pearsall, et. al., hoping to guess their good games they 40%-have on average. I always seem to be on the 60% side of starting them for their junk games.
-- Speaking of the 40% good, the 10% FF-good Kenneth Walker FINALLY had that big game...on the benches of FF-teams universally. KW and Charbs combined for 41.0 PPR points.
I would love to hear more about how much the Rams love ILB Nate Landman. He really made a big difference tonight...for Seattle’s benefit. Shaun Dulac, get ready for 2026.
-- FF’s top PK this season, Jason Myers = just 2.0 points at the wrong time for folks. Brandon Aubrey has a shot to pass him for #1 if he has a 20+ point game this week (I pray).
-- A night of watching Colby Parkinson up close, I was reminded why I didn’t believe that he could keep up this pace for the past month+...because he kinda sucks (at this stage of his career).
As soon as I lean into the Parkinson trend, the Rams throw for 457 yards and Parkinson has as many drops as catches (2) and totally sucks for FF output (21 yards).
https://x.com/ihartitz/status/2001867992360247523?s=43
https://x.com/drewdavenportff/status/2001874741288743311?s=43
(then I went to bed)
---------------------------
(written after I woke up this morning)
-- What I encountered this morning:
https://x.com/sharpfootball/status/2001865228393619953?s=43
So, the craziest 2-point conversion in the history of football should have never been. An entire season for these two teams (or three including SF, or four including Philly) was just altered on what was about the 3rd-4th incredibly bad penalty call of the night...every one of them against the Rams.
-- Actually, the very first thing I saw this morning was this tweet, and started my morning re-wondering what happened to Puka in the last few weeks: https://x.com/nfl_dovkleiman/status/2001894007333433640?s=43
But after I saw the video of the 2-point conversion, I then understood why a player from the Rams would go off on the refs.
-- Think about what was affected by the Rams losing this game...a statistically highly improbable loss at one point in the game... https://x.com/sandonfl/status/2001900643951559040?s=43
1) The Rams likely lost the division and the #1 seed with this, they’ll be a wild card going on the road...possibly finishing 3rd place in the division now.
2) All my bets on the Rams to win the division, and all yours...just blew up. Thank God we took Seattle hedges...which ensures the 49ers will win the division now.
3) FF playoff games affected by what would become ‘extended play’ as the game went to OT ultimately. Which is joy if you benefitted...high frustration if you were on the business end of JSN, Puka, Stafford, Darnold extra tallies.
You wanted a football-like experience via Fantasy? You got it! Burned or gifted by the refs, from time-to-time...it’s a part of the game.
-- Post Mortem Tweets...
Shouldn’t have been: https://x.com/optastats/status/2001890246896816147?s=43
I’m raising my hand on this one: https://x.com/ihartitz/status/2001875873453211752?s=43
Puka: https://x.com/nickguthre/status/2001876991063265775?s=43
As a Rams bettor, I don’t want to re-live this again: https://x.com/bgrisaktst/status/2001884407578399063?s=43
The team I bet AGAINST in the West: https://x.com/lombardihimself/status/2001895349930377528?s=43
== News & Notes ==
-- HEADLINE: New Orleans Football’s Nick Underhill believes Saints RB Audric Estime will “probably” start in Week 16 against the Jets.
Nick Underhill is pretty reliable on Saints stuff, so this falls in line with where we projected a few days ago...and it’s a nice matchup for an RB Week 16 vs. the Jets.
Since trading Quinnen Williams, the Jets have allowed the most FPPG to RBs. Half-PPR scores over the last five games:
TreVeyon Henderson 29.8 FPs
Derrick Henry 21.8
Bijan Robinson 27.8
MIA RBs 40+ combined
Travis Etienne 30
(Audric Estime __ ?)
-- HEADLINE: Jaguars signed WR Jakobi Meyers to a three-year, $60 million extension through 2028.
He’s the Jags #1 into the future now...we theorized that he was gonna be their #1 now, and this makes it official.
We might see Travis Hunter become a full-time CB and part-time WR now...to give Hunter more developmental time as a technical WR.
-- INJURY NEWS: Carlton Davis, Marcus Jones, and Robert Spillane did not practice again for NE...this would be a MASSIVE game change if those three guys are out vs. BAL this week.
== Tweets/X’s Collection ==
-- The downfall of the elite QBs in the future...everyone is ‘middle class’ is the future, and future is coming on rapidly...
Copy & Paste QB play? https://x.com/nflfrascella/status/2001356651148738974?s=43
Future contracts: https://x.com/jason_otc/status/2001324498058936629?s=43
Kirk Cousins on the changes at QB: https://x.com/not___kc/status/2001492076853366988?s=43
-- This could be a HUGE game changer for Week 17 FF-title games...
https://x.com/nfl_convo/status/2001370752277450953?s=43
-- Targets per route season-to-date, one man sticks out like a sore thumb: https://x.com/mattharmon_byb/status/2001335845773865134?s=43
-- Two good games later, everyone is off JJM’s case...and are now on his jock for Week 16...
https://x.com/iamtylertnt/status/2001435486586306573?s=43
https://x.com/thorku/status/2001403321685332157?s=43
-- Jahmyr Gibbs outlook for Week 16 (answered in the comment section by a commentor): https://x.com/ryanj_heath/status/2001483817228603497?s=43
-- The plan for Miami to turn around the franchise? https://x.com/iamtylertnt/status/2001435486586306573?s=43
-- Best one of the day, per me: https://x.com/pammadonna/status/2001448301539868795?s=43
== TE FF Scoring Trends ==
Top 10 PPR PPG (season)
19.4 = McBride
14.7 = Bowers
14.7 = Kraft
13.3 = Kittle
12.6 = Pitts
12.5 = Goedert
12.4 = J Ferg
11.9 = LaPorta
11.8 = Kincaid
Top 10 PPR PPG (Since Week 10...4 or more games played)
23.8 = McBride
19.1 = Kittle
14.9 = Pitts
13.5 = Parkinson
12.8 = Kelce
12.5 = Bowers
11.8 = Schultz
11.7 = Fannin
10.7 = Juwan J
10.4 = Goedert
10.1 = Ertz
Top 10 PPR PPG (Since Week 12...two or more games played)
25.3 = Pitts
23.5 = McBride
16.8 = Kittle
16.2 = Fannin
15.2 = Bowers
15.2 = Goedert
14.5 = Parkinson
13.9 = Knox
13.1 = Schultz
11.7 = Waller
-- DAILY ITEM: For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.
--FINAL--
Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Stafford, Baker Mayfield (healthy) Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy
Drake Maye (not ready to put him in the upper tier yet), Jaxson Dart, Jared Goff, Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Bo Nix, Lamar Jackson
Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Cam Ward, Caleb Williams, Mac Jones, Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence, Aaron Rodgers, Michael Penix, Jacoby Brissett, Will Levis (almost forgot to put him on)
J.J. McCarthy (is trying hard to get to the next tier), Tyson Bagent, Tyler Shough, C.J. Stroud (I don’t recognize this 2025 QB), Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Bryce Young, Shedeur Sanders, Marcus Mariota, Riley Leonard, Davis Mills, Dillon Gabriel, Kyler Murray, Kenny Pickett
Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins, Spencer Rattler, Tyrod Taylor, Deshaun Watson, Justin Fields, Philip Rivers (I guess we should put him on?), Brady Cook, Adrian Martinez
*A new ‘list’ will start tomorrow.
-------------------
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12/18 THU
(7:38amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Game Reports out today...as many as we can get out today and the rest of the week.
Week 16 projections update after 7pm+ when the inactives are announced.
TNF Preview report.
Anything else that pops up, and any early betting I might see.
-- Latest weather report for Seattle today/for tonight’s game (report run 7:10amET)
This is the most up-to-date hourly forecast for Seattle today, Thursday, December 18, 2025, with all times converted to Eastern Time (ET).
The region is currently under a Flood Watch (until 7:00 PM ET) and a Wind Advisory (starting at 2:00 PM ET). While the "atmospheric river" brings heavy rain this morning, conditions are expected to shift toward gusty winds and scattered showers by tonight's kickoff.
🌦️ Seattle Hourly Forecast (Eastern Time)
|
Time (ET) |
Time (PT) |
Condition |
Rain % |
Temp |
Feels Like |
Wind / Gusts |
|
8:00 AM |
5:00 AM |
Heavy Rain |
80% |
44°F |
32°F |
16 / 22 mph |
|
10:00 AM |
7:00 AM |
Steady Rain |
90% |
44°F |
33°F |
12 / 18 mph |
|
12:00 PM |
9:00 AM |
Heavy Rain |
90% |
44°F |
34°F |
10 / 18 mph |
|
2:00 PM |
11:00 AM |
Rain/Wind |
80% |
45°F |
36°F |
14 / 25 mph |
|
4:00 PM |
1:00 PM |
Rain/Wind |
70% |
47°F |
38°F |
16 / 30 mph |
|
6:00 PM |
3:00 PM |
Showers |
60% |
48°F |
40°F |
15 / 28 mph |
|
8:00 PM |
5:00 PM |
Showers |
50% |
48°F |
41°F |
15 / 29 mph |
|
10:00 PM |
7:00 PM |
Breezy/Showers |
45% |
49°F |
42°F |
17 / 28 mph |
|
12:00 AM |
9:00 PM |
Rain |
60% |
47°F |
41°F |
15 / 27 mph |
-- We’re on a Josh Jacobs ‘watch’ still...
I know, I know...he’s always hurt and he always plays...and that’s probably what happens here, BUT he has an additional foot injury this week and has yet to practice and plays a day earlier than usual (they play Chicago SAT.)
-- Joe Burrow is back talking about the future again...
https://x.com/NFL_DovKleiman/status/2001384525251908031?s=20
I don’t like his body language or attitude right now...didn’t like it in the zero points scored in the Bengals do-or-die game last week...didn’t like his general demeanor/vibe in the Netflix documentary ‘Quarterback’ either.
Something is going on with Burrow...it’s passive aggressive...it’s weird...has me worried about him/Cincy this week, but these may not be new thoughts, and he has dealt with them for years and always tends to put up numbers.
I just can't shake the feeling that ‘I got a bad feeling about this’. But they're also facing Quinn Ewers in his debut, so it should be good opportunity
-- HEADLINE: NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports Seahawks LT Charles Cross (hamstring) has a “2-4 week injury.”
Not good for Seattle tonight, or the rest of the way. If Seattle somehow beats the Rams tonight...the 49ers could get them in a few weeks and take the division title from them.
The way the Rams attack Sam Darnold...and now he doesn’t have his left tackle?
-- Cameron Heyward turns 37 years old in May 2026...
https://x.com/pff/status/2001397156662682076?s=43
-- Fantasy Football in a nutshell...
https://x.com/drakefantasy/status/2001100566202589640?s=43
== FFM Internal O-Line Grades ==
Top 5 Best (season):
1) LAR
2) BUF
3) ATL
4) IND
5) TB/CHI
Top 5 Best (last 5 weeks):
1) LAR
2) BUF
3) MIA
4) ATL
5) WSH
Top 5 Worst (season):
1) CLE
2) LAC
3) LV
4) ARI
5) TEN
Top 5 Worst (last 5 weeks):
1) CLE
2) KC
3) HOU
4) LV
5) ARI
-- DAILY ITEM: For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.
Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Stafford, Baker Mayfield (healthy) Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy
Drake Maye (not ready to put him in the upper tier yet), Jaxson Dart, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Bo Nix, Lamar Jackson
Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Cam Ward, Caleb Williams, Mac Jones, Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence, Aaron Rodgers, Michael Penix, Jacoby Brissett
J.J. McCarthy (is trying hard to get to the next tier), Tyler Shough, C.J. Stroud (I don’t recognize this 2025 QB), Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Bryce Young, Shedeur Sanders, Riley Leonard, Davis Mills, Dillon Gabriel, Kyler Murray, Kenny Pickett
Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins, Spencer Rattler, Tyrod Taylor, Deshaun Watson, Justin Fields, Philip Rivers (I guess we should put him on?), Brady Cook, Adrian Martinez
-------------------
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12/17 WED
(7:22amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Game Report day...as many as we can get out today and the rest of the week.
Week 16 projections update 7-9pmET approx.
Streaming news items throughout the day, more afternoon-night for me this day.
Any betting action to start the week.
== Tuesday night free agency/waivers commentary/notes (national overview) ==
-- We projected the 1-2-3 hottest position players in free agency would be Carter-Waller-Parkinson, but it was one minor swap...Carter-Parkinson-Waller ended up, in our tracking, as the top 3 added/pursued/spent on.
-- Michael Carter blew away the RB group...JCM was a distant second and Jawhar Jordan 3rd. https://x.com/chriswechtff/status/2000998243854115112?s=43
-- Parkinson and Waller were a close 1-2 among TEs...Dalton Schultz a distant 3rd.
-- The WR group was quiet. We projected the 1-2-3 to be Reed-Coker-Burden, and it was Reed-Golden-Coker. Everyone is trying to find the Christian Watson replacement, I guess? Poor Romeo Doubs got little love in that. https://x.com/bookofeli_nfl/status/2001018982640574835?s=43
The QB 1-2-3 was a bit of a surprise...Stroud-Brissett-McCarthy. We had C.J. Stroud above 50% owned going in but even that being the case it was just slightly above 50%...and he ended up being the most added/spent on QB still. People do not trust Jacoby Brissett at all...still...after all his weeks of top production.
On DSTs, the Bills nudged out the Saints...but they were the clear top two.
Eddy Pineiro finally got some due as the clear top added PK.
The most dropped actual players (non-DST): Devin Neal, Patrick Mahomes, Brenton Strange, Jaylen Wright, Christian Watson.
-- I do not have any new injury news/intel early am from what we discussed last night on the situations since midnightET.
There’s thousands of words (but also a quick read summary) of our 1.5+ hour free agent show last night you can read quick or read long or listen to/watch the show where we go over all the obvious injury situations...but also 1-2-3 surprising/unofficial/not out in public news we had to discuss (and as of 5amET there’s not much news still on them...I suspect today will be a mad dash).
-- HEADLINE: Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel told reporters “everything is on the table” and that “the quarterback play last night was not good enough” when asked about benching Tua Tagovailoa.
I don’t think McDaniel will pull the plug this week, but he’s setting up for it for Week 17-18, especially if they lose Week 16. But a Week 16 change is still on the board. https://x.com/the_phinstones/status/2000903942104867148?s=43
-- NBC HEADLINE/COMMENTARY: Rams WR Puka Nacua, asked about Davante Adams (hamstring), said it will be “a great opportunity for all of the young guys and especially [Konata] Mumpfield.”
Nacua continued to say that Mumpfield “has been behind him and watching him and is someone we see as Tae’s apprentice.” While The Athletic’s Nate Atkins wouldn’t come out and directly say it, he did note that Mumpfield is “built most like Adams of the group at 6 feet 1, 185 pounds” and noted Mumpfield was the player that took on the majority of the snaps when Adams left Week 15’s game against the Lions.
I think this was a very interesting, telling statement. Not FF actionable for Week 16-17, likely...but for the future considering Atwell-Whittington-X.Smith...it may be shaping up as Mumpfield as the future #3, then #2?
The Rams O-C also weighed in: https://x.com/camdasilva/status/2000950691209338944?s=43
-- INJURY WATCH: I wasn’t taking this seriously on Tuesday (because they aren’t listing him), but there are some concerns being whispered...especially that he could be ‘off’ or ‘doesn’t run as much’ this week on Jalen Hurts and a possible ankle sprain...?https://x.com/jmthrivept/status/2001105006939005220?s=43
== Tweets/Xs Roundup ==
Diego Pavia Tweet-mania...
Colts-related: https://x.com/cheesycheesy3/status/2000320323993157750?s=43
One-liners: https://x.com/redmfraider11/status/2000052536712008140?s=43
-- How embarrassing, and serendipitous for Carolina: https://x.com/primetimecar/status/2000663924690063590?s=43
-- Why did Dan Campbell even hire that new O-C? Why doesn’t he just fire him now? https://x.com/underdognfl/status/2000645015282819205?s=43
== PK Scoring Trends ==
Top 5 PPG Weeks 1-15 (Season)
13.0 = Myers
11.8 = Fairbairn
11.5 = Aubrey
10.9 = Dicker
10.7 = Pineiro
Top 5 PPG Weeks 7-15 (6 or more games played)
14.9 = Myers
12.4 = Fairbairn
12.0 =- Dicker
12.0 = Aubrey
10.5 = McPherson
Top 5 PPG Weeks 10-15 (4 or more games played)
16.7 = Myers
13.5 = Aubrey
12.6 = Dicker
11.8 = Fairbairn
10.8 = Borregales
Top 5 PPG Weeks 12-15 (3 or more games played)
17.5 = Myers
14.7 = Aubrey
13.7 = Dicker
13.3 = Borregales
11.8 = Fairbairn
Top 5 PPG Weeks 14-15 (last 2 weeks)
19.8 = Aubrey
19.0 = Myers
16.0 = Dicker
13.5 = Bates
13.0 = Fairbairn
-- DAILY ITEM: For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.
Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Stafford, Baker Mayfield (healthy) Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy
Drake Maye (not ready to put him in the upper tier yet), Jaxson Dart, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Bo Nix, Lamar Jackson
Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Caleb Williams, Mac Jones, Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence, Michael Penix, Jacoby Brissett, Aaron Rodgers
J.J. McCarthy (is trying hard to get to the next tier), Tyler Shough, C.J. Stroud (I don’t recognize this 2025 QB), Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Bryce Young, Shedeur Sanders, Riley Leonard, Davis Mills, Dillon Gabriel, Kyler Murray, Kenny Pickett
Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins, Spencer Rattler, Tyrod Taylor, Deshaun Watson, Justin Fields, Philip Rivers (I guess we should put him on?), Brady Cook, Adrian Martinez
-------------------
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12/16 TUE
(7:50amET)
-- Today’s Agenda…
Tuesday Night Waivers Video Show 8:30pm-10pmET
Week 16 Projections day...they will debut/post approx. 5-7pmET
Game Report/s today...as many as we can get out.
News & Notes throughout the day.
MNF Week 15: MIA at PIT first reactions...
-- Effectively, season ‘over’ for Miami...as far as playoffs. You need 10-11 wins minimum to dance in the AFC this season. Miami cannot get there now. The Dolphins had been playing so well but completely rolled over here.
-- We witnessed the Kenneth Gainwell (13-80-0, 7-46-0/7) takeover of the Steelers backfield in real time last night...actually it’s been building for 3-4 weeks, which is why I was trying to get all of us to move on from Jaylen Warren (12-33-0, 3-15-0/3) if it all possible...swap into other things to avoid this potentially split-to-a-fall. It’s not that Warren is ‘bad’, just Gainwell was working better for several weeks/months now.
All Gainwell needed was a chance...like 500+ other players in the NFL.
-- Also, Jaylen Warren was questionable for this game with a sickness that popped up Monday.
Keeping Your Flex FLEXIBLE, my mantra for a decade+ now...it won some people playoff games this week -- pivoting off Warren Monday or benching him Sunday for someone else playing Sunday, on the off-chance Warren got something crazy Monday you couldn’t react to.
At least once a season, these little strategy items save a week/season.
-- Darren Waller woke back up...two TDs here. He is the Dolphins/Tua #1. Once Tyreek Hill was done, Jaylen Waddle has been the most boring WR3.
Since Week 7, Waddle has the 27th most PPR points raw total among WRs...just 11.9 PPR PPG. Trailing Alec Pierce and Troy Franklin, among others.
Waddle is not that good...he just got all the targets Tua could deal at one point in his life. Then Tyreek came in and took them away, then Tyreek left...and then Darren Waller Philip River’d back to the league and took them away.
Waddle used to be really cool 5+ years ago...but about 9 million other WRs have flooded in from college who are as good/better.
-- The AFC North appears on a collision course to be settled Week 18 with BAL at PIT, for all the marbles.
== NEWS & HEADLINE ITEMS ==
-- 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan said “there is a concern” about Ricky Pearsall’s knee and ankle injury.
I can’t invest in or take Pearsall very seriously from here for FF/Dyn. If he falls to me or he’s on waivers, etc., I could take a cheap look (like I would a ton of other guys) -- but I’m not planning on overinvesting or regular investing in him ever...can’t stay on the field. Isn’t great when he’s on it anyway.
-- Bears coach Ben Johnson said “all options are on the table” when asked about Rome Odunze (foot) and intimated they may need to “protect him from himself.”
Likely Rome will be shut down for a hopeful return for the playoffs. Luther Burden is the #1-ish target with Odunze gone...but DJ Moore is heating up too.
-- Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald said he’s “exhausting all options to see” if LT Charles Cross (hamstring) can play in Week 16.
A huge item in that massive TNF showdown this week...LAR at SEA.
-- Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell said he’s hoping Christian Darrisaw (knee) “is back at some point.”
Losing your left tackle is almost an FF death sentence in a given week for passing games, etc. Consider JJM tore up Dallas without Darrisaw Week 15.
-- Jaguars RB Bhayshul Tuten (finger) will undergo surgery and miss the remainder of the regular season.
LaQuint Allen becomes the low-touch-count #2.
Ja’Quinden Jackson likely gets promoted from the practice squad, but I’m sure Jacksonville is scrambling for a veteran RB for their playoff run instead.
-- NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports the Commanders have decided to shut Jayden Daniels down for the remainder of the season.
They didn’t have a choice but to do this...the thing they should’ve done weeks ago.
People should be fired for this mismanagement. They won’t be.
-- Bengals HC Zac Taylor said Joe Burrow will start the final three games of the season.
Ditto. People should be fired for this.
The owner should step in and protect his asset...and who cares what the player thinks, the owner OWNS him.
-- Colts HC Shane Steichen said Philip Rivers will start in Week 16 against the 49ers.
What a gift to the 49ers, but we thought that about the Seattle game too. More on my Rivers re-debut scouting in the next 24 hours from me. I’ve watched all his throws from last week on a cut-up tape already.
-- Falcons coach Raheem Morris said he’s “very hopeful” Drake London (knee) will return for Week 16’s game against the Cardinals.
Another ‘why?’ item.
It sends the wrong message to the team? Hell, it should be exciting for the team...it creates opportunity for young players. All the WRs that Atlanta has been taking off practice squads to prepare for the future, now they can get a month-long preview of and see if they are worthy!
What’s that you say?
The Falcons haven’t grabbed any practice squad WRs this month? They have David Sills? Great management. Really visionary.
If it wasn’t for the London injury, would we have finally found out after 4 years that Kyle Pitts was actually good all along?
Ditto Marvin Harrison Jr/Michael Wilson?
-- JJ McCarthy love has arrived to Twitter/X!
https://x.com/philmackey/status/2000453088893644845?s=43
But also JJM hate still exists too...
https://x.com/zac_leedm/status/2000410160309657674?s=43
https://x.com/theffballers/status/2000409133833732134?s=43
https://x.com/primetimecar/status/2000663924690063590?s=43
https://x.com/fballanalysisyt/status/2000428414830817409?s=43
But the JJM ‘Nine’ Memes will never end...
https://x.com/ghettogronk/status/2000437884059365802?s=43
https://x.com/thebrohioan/status/2000422931348799869?s=43
https://x.com/elitetakes_/status/2000594262636048454?s=43
-- DAILY ITEM: For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.
*changed up/updated some the QBs and their placement since yesterday/last week*
Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Stafford, Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy
Drake Maye (not ready to put him in the upper tier yet), Jaxson Dart, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Bo Nix, Lamar Jackson
Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Caleb Williams, Mac Jones, Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence, Michael Penix, Jacoby Brissett, Aaron Rodgers
J.J. McCarthy (is trying hard to get to the next tier), Tyler Shough, C.J. Stroud (I don’t recognize this 2025 QB), Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Bryce Young, Shedeur Sanders, Riley Leonard, Davis Mills, Dillon Gabriel, Kyler Murray, Kenny Pickett
Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins, Spencer Rattler, Tyrod Taylor, Deshaun Watson, Justin Fields, Philip Rivers (I guess we should put him on?), Brady Cook, Adrian Martinez
-------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
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*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
12/15 MON
(5:27amET)
-- Today's Agenda...
Week 15 TNF game report will post Monday midday.
I’m working on the Executive Report all day ahead of MNF...planned to post 6-8pmET.
MNF Betting overview and my bets will post ahead of MNF.
-- Injuries from Sunday roundup...
Patrick Mahomes (ACL) = Done for the season. Should be ready for Week 1/2026.
Davante Adams (hamstring) = Very likely out for Week 16 because it’s TNF...then Week 17 is MNF, but likely not back for that game MNF at ATL either.
Christian Watson (chest) = Fractured clavicle? Collarbone dislocated and fractured. Scarier than you’d think. Taken to the hospital in an ambulance. It can be a little life threatening depending upon where anything broken has shifted/moved to.
Rome Odunze (foot) = Stress fracture...likely down for the rest of the reg. season.
Luther Burden (ankle) = Tweaked. Unknown status for Week 16.
Javonte Williams (chest) = Was out for a while in-game, then returned. Likely skips practices this week and is playing Week 16.
RJ Harvey (ribs) = Unknown severity.
Woody Marks (ankle) = Missed the rest of his game. Unknown severity or status for Week 16.
Devin Neal (hamstring) = Strain...possibly out ROS.
Devaughn Vele (shoulder) = Left game in a sling. Sprain or break. Potentially done for 2025.
Ricky Pearsall (knee) = MRI needed...could be done again.
Bam Knight (ankle) = Unknown severity but it happened very early and he never returned. Potentially a season ending sprain?
Bhayshul Tuten (finger) = Fracture/dislocation/sprain
Micah Parsons (ACL) = Done for the season. We’ll see about his 2026. Could be a choppy return.
== FFM Projected Final Standings ==
*assuming a PIT win tonight...
AFC
1) DEN
2) NE
3) HOU
4) BAK
5) BUF
6) LAC
7) JAX
---------
8) PIT
NFC
1) LAR
2) PHI
3) DET
4) TB
5) SF
6) SEA
7) CHI
---------
8) GB
9) DAL
DRAFT Order...
#1 LV
#2 NYJ
#3 NYG
== Random News & Notes ==
-- In advance of tonight’s game...
Miami Dolphins record this season when they throw 30+ times 0-7
Miami Dolphins record this season when they run 30+ times 6-0
-- The Chiefs have fallen, and the world is rejoicing...because we hate sustained success and love to kick football characters when they are down...
https://x.com/nfl_memes/status/2000335149414941014?s=43
https://x.com/raiderposts/status/2000358853934776726?s=43
I do kinda enjoy the Nick Wright torture online, not gonna lie.
-- Betting streaks broken...
A 5+ year streak was broken Sunday: https://x.com/sbbreakers/status/1999899619208380520?s=43
One of the two broke this streak: https://x.com/toddfuhrman/status/1999872333289578918?s=43
-- Betting streaks continued... https://x.com/bfawkes22/status/2000363617086996529?s=43
-- This picture and comment makes me laugh every time I see it...that one college QB’s size is CRAZY...and I have never seen him play one snap, yet: https://x.com/5footnothinpod/status/1999996761616810377?s=43
And now the more I look at Tweets/Xs, the more I see that this little QB is a Grade A a-hole. Shedeur Sanders is like, ‘Dude, chill! Show some humility’.
This Pavia guy seems like Johnny Manziel personality, only worse...
https://x.com/yahoosports/status/2000243568770732152?s=43
https://x.com/ncaaportal/status/2000212974875680989?s=43
https://x.com/notthefakednp/status/2000402575729045615?s=43
https://x.com/texasfancyboots/status/2000242756115997136?s=43
https://x.com/gottliebshow/status/2000333545185939962?s=43
---------------------------
We’re only a few weeks away from our NFL Draft scouting season beginning...
I watched a few plays of the OSU-Texas opener, and I have not watched one single play of CFB since. Soon, I will be submerged into the 2025 CFB season...but we’ve still got plenty of 2025 FF season to knock down!
-- More Heisman stuff...
https://x.com/batonrougebkm/status/2000031156151194007?s=43
https://x.com/willyfoosball/status/1999861663747694724?s=43
-- DAILY ITEM: For some fun, I’m going to do another QB Hierarchy...like we did this summer, updated for what I’ve seen in the 2025 season. One QB added a day in the order that I would place that QB, and I keep doing it each day in alphabetical team order. This is an NFL performance/talent list, not for FF, based on their talent assessment today...my personal feelings on it. We’ll add one team a day’s QB/s to the list in the order where I would put them.
*changed up/updated some the QBs and their placement since yesterday/last week*
Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Stafford, Jalen Hurts
Drake Maye (not ready to put him in the upper tier yet), Jaxson Dart, Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Bo Nix, Lamar Jackson
Aaron Rodgers, Daniel Jones, Caleb Williams, Mac Jones, Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence, Jacoby Brissett, Michael Penix
J.J. McCarthy (is trying hard to get to the next tier), Tyler Shough, C.J. Stroud (I don’t recognize this 2025 QB), Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Shedeur Sanders, Bryce Young, Riley Leonard, Davis Mills, Dillon Gabriel, Kyler Murray, Kenny Pickett
Anthony Richardson, Kirk Cousins, Spencer Rattler, Tyrod Taylor, Deshaun Watson, Justin Fields, Philip Rivers (I guess we should put him on?), Brady Cook, Adrian Martinez
-------------------
*How to sign up for our monthly or annual access: https://ffmetrics.com/total-football-advisor/total-football-advisor
*How to get the free FFM App and FAQs on how to use: https://ffmetrics.com/5663-how-to-get-the-free-ffm-app
*Our Betting Subscription offering (including private Discord chat access): https://ffmetrics.com/betting/betting
