R.C. Fischer

FFM

19 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Seahawks 38, Falcons 25

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The easy narrative here is…

Russell Wilson ‘got to cook’ (I hate that phrase already) and Atlanta is a perpetual letdown, and thus they had another letdown in a beating to Seattle. For an added bonus, Atlanta put up a bunch of garbage time late to push nice FF numbers.

…and the world continues to spin as it is supposed to.

I know, that’s what I thought walking out of Sunday’s action live – this was all normal, nothing new here. When I put the game recaps in order of priority/fantasy impact to discuss…this one made it to ‘last’ on my list because it went the way most expected and nothing shocked anyone looking at the box score.

However, after relooking at things, I think there was a piece of data that might sail right below the surface from this game. One that should give Atlanta hope, or cause Seattle fear…or both.

If you look at total QB Hits + TFLs in any NFL game…you can usually tell who won the game/how big of a beating it was. These two stats are obvious for why I mention them…you’d know which defense is controlling/dominating the offense/blocking.

I pulled all the Week 1 games for these numbers for a reason (that I’ll explain in a minute). But let’s jump right in and look at the Week 1 games by combined TFLs + QB Hits:

CHI 9 (won), DET 8.5

LAR 10 (won), DAL 4

DEN 10, TEN 9 (won)

GB 8 (won), MIN 4

LV 5 (won), CAR 4

You see a pattern? You see the levels/counts? OK, let’s proceed…

ARI (won) 10, SF 5…does this catch you by surprise, but then really doesn’t because Arizona won?

PIT 19 (won), NYG 9.5…big number for PIT, by prior comparison, right?

LAC 12.5 (won), CIN 6

KC 11 (won), HOU 8

NE 12 (won), MIA 9

How about the pattern you notice with these five games? More double-digit+ tallies with this group…and all game winners. In case you’re keeping track the QB Hits + TFL winners are (9-1) by what I’ve shown so far. But…

It’s not a guarantee of a stat though. Look at these tallies…

TB 14, NO 12 (won)…this is why you don’t write off TB and why you should get excited about their defense – they did that to a very good offense/O-Line.

NYJ 14.5, BUF 13.5 (won)…like I was saying about the scrappy/aggressive Jets defense.

CLE 12.5, BAL 10 (won) even I was shocked at this, but sometimes a huge blowout the winning team pulls up on the reins.

IND 10, JAX 7 (won)…who didn’t say about this game “The Colts were better than Jags here, but…”

See the pattern among the losing teams here…bigger tallies (on both sides of the game for the most part), but all losses for the QB Hit + TFL winners. Driving this ‘stat’s’ predictiveness to a (9-5) real win-loss record so far into our journey.

I’m missing two games. One is the SEA-ATL game. Let me share the other one that I saved for the shock value. Look at the numbers above…a total count of 8-13 is the prevailing tally for a team (win or lose). 14-15-16 tend to be the ‘big boy’ defenses. The Steelers with 19 total is the Week 1 leader so far.

OK, are you ready for this next one…

WAS 28 (won), PHI 16…now do you think I was being too over the top about the Washington defensive front? I’ve rarely seen a number over 20-22 in any game in a season. Either the Eagles are in big trouble (for obvious O-Line issues/reasons) and/or ‘The Football Team’ has ‘something’ special on defensive pressure.

Now, remember…it’s Week 1. We don’t know if the defense drove it…the offensive deficiencies drove it…the game plan drove it – and that with adjustments and injuries it will be all different next week. So, don’t jump off a cliff here…yet. What happened Week 1 is not necessarily the fact from here on in.

Five teams, of the 30 teams I’ve shown so far, hit 14 or more combined QB Hits + TFLs…and only two won, but two of them played each other as well. The 14+ club from Week 1: PIT-WAS-PHI-NYJ-TB…aggressive defenses and/or big-time fronts, and/or faced a team with a bad O-Line.

The last game to show…

15 ATL, SEA 14.5 (won). 

Atlanta, of all teams, registered the 3rd-best number in the league Week 1. Is it the Seattle O-Line? The Falcons have a pass rush? Both? None…just luck? What happened?

Atlanta’s 2019:

MIN 14, ATL 7 (loss)

ATL 16 (won), PHI 10

…we’re about to lose six in-a-row

ATL 11.5 (loss), IND 8 (a close loss)

TEN 21.5, ATL 14 (loss)

HOU 13, ATL 4 (loss…crushed, gave up 53)

ARI 12, ATL 2 (loss)

LAR 19, ATL 12.5 (loss)

SEA 14, ATL 7 (loss)

…we’re about to turn the season around post-BYE

ATL 17 (win), NO 9…remember when they shockingly crushed the Saints here?

ATL 17.5 (win), CAR 14

TB 21, ATL 6 (loss)…I sensed the trend and bet ATL heavy to lose my life here.

NO 22, ATL 3 (loss)

ATL 15 (win), CAR 8

SF 12, ATL 8 (win)

JAX 11, ATL 9 (win)

TB 20, ATL 6 (win)

Atlanta registered 15 QB Hits + TFLs vs. Seattle in Week of 2020…when they hit 15 or more last year they were (3-0). Atlanta is usually in the 7-10 range. They are usually a low sack count/low pressure defense. In 2020, Week 1, they sacked Russell Wilson 3 times before halftime…they outgained Seattle in yards by a healthy amount in the 1st-half. It was only 14-12 Seattle at the half, and Atlanta was the better/equal team in the 1st-half.

In the 3rd-quarter, on a 4th & 2 at midfield, Atlanta ran a fake punt, got the 1st-down but fumbled…and turned it over – and that changed the game. The Falcons ended up down by 19 points in the 4th-quarter. They scored to make it a two-score game 31-18 with 9+ minutes left. Still a ballgame, but Seattle drove right down and scored to put it away.

This wasn’t the blowout that was (easily) portrayed. I’m not suggesting that Atlanta is great or a hot DST, but I am suggesting being ready to look for more clues Week 2 on…

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1) Atlanta might have a pass rush/defensive front now. Dante Fowler (4 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 1.5 TFLs) was added in the offseason.

Takk McKinley, a former 1st-round pick who has battled off-field mental issues…he registered 6 QB Hits in this game. The most by any player Week 1. He played like his hair was on fire. In his first three seasons in the NFL he registered: 10-15-13 QB Hits…for a season. He had 6 in this game.

Grady Jarrett (5 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3 QB Hits) is one of the best DTs in the NFL.

Atlanta can’t cover anyone (lost Desmond Trufant in the offseason, Kendall Sheffield hurt Week 1, and now starting a shaky rookie on one CB side already), so there’s that issue – but they showed signs that they can now get to the QB.

They face Dallas Week 2…and Dallas has lost a chunk of its O-Line. Be careful logging in Dallas as an auto-victory here. It might be another McKinley breakout event with Tyron Smith out.

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2) OR…it could be that Seattle is awful on the O-Line.

Minus a Russell Wilson 28-yard scramble run…Seattle ran the ball 19 times for 56 yards…2.9 yards per carry. Wilson was sacked three times in the 1st-half…and hit 10 times total.

Notice where some of the Seattle offense came from…O-Line weakness plays…i.e. screen passes.

Be very afraid for Seattle v. Belichick this week.

Fantasy Player Notes…

*Other than that big defensive lead-in, all the FF players did what all these players tend to do. Let me just quickly comment on a few things that caught my eyes otherwise…

 -- Todd Gurley (14-56-1, 2-1-0/5) looked fine. Not inspired, but not slow/terrible/knee problemed. He only played 46% of the snaps is an issue to fear, potentially. Brian Hill (3-012-0, 2-8-0/2) worked 27% of the snaps and Ito Smith (1-4-0, 3-2-0/3) 20%.

It’s more of a three-headed monster than you want if you are relying on Gurley.

 -- Chris Carson (6-21-0, 6-45-2/6) caught two short pass TDs. His best moment was a 19-yard screen pass TD. Aside from that 19-yard screen pass TD…11 other touches for 47 yards total. Just 6 carries. Virtually a ghost in the 2nd-half.

Carson played 45% of the snaps…his pattern of play/snaps followed Gurley’s – he’s in a two/three headed monster backfield.

Carlos Hyde (7-23-1) looked WAY better running the ball, and he played 34% of the snaps.

Travis Homer (3-0-0, 2-4-0/2) played 21% of the snaps.

It may have been ‘game flow’ but be wary of Carson again, potentially.

 -- Russell Gage (9-114-0/12) had to have the quietest 9 catches for 114 yards game in the history of football. He just doesn’t look like a star to me, not even ‘good’, just useful…and I’d bet he’s going to hurt taking a hit over the middle and missing games by midseason.

 -- Hayden Hurst (3-38-0/5) looked really good, they just didn’t use him a lot. Bobby Wagner covered him well, and Jamal Adams was on him too…Hurst got some great coverage for some reason. Don’t give up on Hurst yet.

 -- Will Dissly (2-8-0/2) was back for Week 1 after another season ending injury in 2019. He played 40% of the snaps and looked like he was blowing off the rust. He’ll be in a 50/50 snap share with Olsen before long, and Dissly maybe more snaps because he is such a great blocker. We’ll have to see if Dissly can hold up…or Olsen, for that matter.

Snap Counts of Interest:

68 = Ridley

65 = Julio

55 = Gage

11 = Zacchaeus

41 = Olsen

25 = Dissly

11 = Hollister

R.C. Fischer

FFM

18 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Titans 16, Broncos 14

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

This should’ve been a bigger win for the Titans. Not that the Broncos didn’t play the game/plan it as well as they could – but Stephen Gostkowski was going all Adam Vinateri/2019 and shanking field goal attempts all over. Gostkowski was 1/4 in FG attempts, and 1/2 in XP attempts…a nightmare game. When he lined up for the game winner/loser late, my heart literally stopped for him. The human in me wanted him to make that kick for his own sanity and for football justice for the Titans…and he (shockingly) split the uprights.

I saw this story last year, and it cost the Colts a playoff trip (I think) – they stick by the veteran, HOF kicker ‘because’ and it destroys them. Gostkowski almost cost them a win here. He’s going to if they keep sticking with him.

Aside from that, it was a well-played, tough/physical game with the Broncos having a rash of injuries in September to their best players coming in undermanned, and lost A.J. Bouye in-game here as well. The Broncos did all they could, but their season is about over before it starts due to the injuries (and Drew Lock). The Titans did what they had to do and pulled out a slugfest win.

Denver is staring down an 0-3 start with at PIT, TB ahead.

The Titans get a fortunate win and play Jacksonville for sole possession of 1st-place in the AFC South Week 2. The Titans need that Week 2 win…at MIN-PIT-BUF-HOU Weeks 3-6 is not going to be an easy stretch.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Is Corey Davis (7-101-0/8) back…or arrived finally? Maybe, but probably not. The Broncos went heavy after Derrick Henry and focused on A.J. Brown (5-39-0/8), and really took AJB out of the game 1st-half, as happens to AJB when he faces tough coverage. All of it allowed Davis, who was barely being covered, to go off for 5 catches for 76 yards in the 1st-half.

The Broncos adjusted and Davis went 2 catches for 25 yards in the more pass heavy 2nd-half. When Bouye went down and urgency struck…Ryan Tannehill (29-43 for 249 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) went to Brown-Humphries-Jonnu in that order, and Davis drifted into the backdrop.

‘Drifting into the backdrop’ is Corey Davis’s entire career. He’s not the plan on purpose. He’s a random WR3 event on a team not dedicated to the passing game and one that sees him as the 3rd-4th-best option when it’s crunch time. Don’t be dazzled because he was a really high draft pick WR…so was Mike Williams and John Ross that same year. In the 3rd-round of that 2017 Draft, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, and Kenny Golladay were taken.

You know one of my sure scouting signs of a shaky NFL WR prospect? If they were taken in the 1st-round of the NFL Draft…that’s a damning sign.

I’d be a ‘sell high’ on Davis off this event if you can get anyone to bite.

If Brown misses this week…worse news for Davis as he’ll draw C.J. Henderson, who will shut him down. Davis might have another plausible FF game if Brown plays.

 -- Jonnu Smith (4-36-1/7) got a little better run than usual…but it’s still very odd. Jonnu made a nice play early and then just disappeared. Like, why doesn’t Tennessee want more Jonnu? It works great, a lot. When the Titans were scuffling back-and-forth late with Denver, Jonnu saw a little more action and had a decent game…but 36 yards in a game is silly. He should have more, be used more. He’s still more gimmicky than not.

Still, he’s good enough to be a TE1 as a lowly targeted gimmick.

 -- Noah Fant (5-81-0/6) benefitted from Courtland Sutton being out, and the fact that Fant is really good. Drew Lock is going to be a problem for Fant finding FF consistency. Fant is stuck as a wobbly/fringe TE1…but he’s so talented, like Jonnu (but differently talented) that Fant can make it work with limited looks.

 -- The Jerry Jeudy (4-56-0/8) experience debuted to a yawn here.

The TV analysts can keep replaying and gushing over his bouncy feet, and he does have quick feet…but he has little heart of body/frame for the NFL – so, what they don’t re-play over and over is Jeudy’s drops (he had two). When Jeudy is going over the middle for a pass…odds are he’ll gator arm it.

They also ran a bubble screen/short pass thing for him, and he gets tackled like he’s a 5th-grader facing college kids in sandlot football. A stiff breeze knocks Jeudy over because he’s like a stick figure body with a S-A-W-F-T play style.

He could improve with maturity and weight room time, but I think there will be regret over what a wasted 1st-round pick this was…even if he is ‘good’. He’s just ‘good’ at best. DeSean Hamilton (1-18-0/3) has similar bouncy feet…that story/ship sailed fast, didn’t it?

 -- Melvin Gordon (15-78-1, 3-8-0/3), to my great angst, becomes an RB1 candidate with Phillip Lindsay (7-24-0, 1-11-0/1) out with turf toe.

Turf toe tends to linger and hamper/hinder. I don’t have a lot of time to wait on Lindsay in a split with Gordon. I wanted to believe, and Lindsay was showing a sign that he was pushed ahead of Gordon to begin this game…but he just lost all that goodwill.

The way Lindsay has been treated by Denver (after two 1,000+ yard seasons they pay up for Gordon), I’ll bet Lindsay does not rush back and takes several weeks until he’s 100%. There’s not career/income benefit to Lindsay returning until he’s 100%. If you see better options, and if Lindsay is ruled out this week, it’s OK to move on in non-deep roster leagues.

I’d sell Melvin Gordon hot too, perhaps. He faces four of the best run defenses in the NFL the next four weeks…PIT-TB-@NYJ-@NE. Sell Gordon high, sell Lindsay to the Gordon owner. Bail out of the Denver run game if you can. We might pile back in after Week 8 bye.

 -- Denver IDP Josey Jewell (8 tackles) played better than I’d seen him the past few years. He might be getting his career back on track/starting to fulfill some promise.

 -- Watch out for Jeremiah Attaochu (4 tackles, 1 sacks, 2 QB hits) having a 10+ sack season across from Bradley Chubb. Attaochu is a great pass rusher, and he really had two sacks here…he had Tannehill clutched and going to the ground and Tanny just flung it away before hitting the ground. No Von Miller…Attaochu is the beneficiary.

Snap Counts of Note:

50 = Patrick

47 = D Hamilton

44 = Jeudy

60 = Attaochu

59 = Chubb

66 = A.J. Brown

66 = C Davis

59 = Jonnu

44 = Humphries

R.C. Fischer

FFM

18 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Packers 43, Vikings 34

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The reports on this game are true. Not much more I can add. The Packers/Aaron Rodgers destroyed the Vikings and it was nowhere near as close as the final score made it appear. The Pack led 29-10 going into the 4th-quarter and then a garbage all-pass shootout erupted to the finish (good for FF numbers if you were in on it).

Matt LaFleur has Mike Zimmer’s number…now 3-0 against him and the gap between the two teams seems wider than ever. How bad was this by MIN? Well, the GB passing game has been regressing for a while now…it only has spasms against bad pass defenses/terrible teams. Well, what does that make the Vikings then…because they got destroyed here? Before we crown Aaron Rodgers as 'back', let's see him against a better defense...like Week 3 @NO. They schedule is very good for Rodgers through Week 11/pretty much all year though...

A lot of young/new corners playing for the Vikings; a needed flushing by Zimmer. It might take 4-6 weeks for the Vikings D to get rolling to ‘decent’, and they need to get Danielle Hunter back…but it might be too late by then.

The Vikings are in a 2020 do-or-die kinda game this week with Indy, at Indy. Lose that one and then three 2019 playoff teams are on the schedule next. The season may be over by the time Hunter returns and the CBs are improved, unfortunately for them. Minnesota has to win this week…but so does Indy.

The Packers have established themselves as the best team in a suddenly awful division. They may go 6-0 in division this year. It should be another Air Raid on Detroit this week.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- With a huge passing game effort this week, I hoped to see Allen Lazard (4-63-1/4) go off with a big game and big targets. But then I saw just four targets…and I got depressed.

And then I watched the tape and realized – Allen Lazard is a Pro Bowl caliber WR talent. He was terrific in this game. The only thing standing in the way of him and fantasy goodness is the target levels. Lazard is now taking WR-in-motion flick/pitch passes in front of the QB, like a running play but counts as a pass catch type thing. He also took a jet sweep here – which all these types of plays are a GREAT sign that they KNOW what they have here. Lazard ran 19-yards on his jet sweep and his pitch pass sweep was 10+ yards as well. A 6’5”/225+ WR coming around the edge with a full head of steam and looking like a great tailback…it was sweet to see.

We just need to see more of it. I think we will, but I always think that…and it never happens. I think you want in on Lazard as a #4-5 WR on your roster because we could wake up in 1-2-3 weeks and he’s a full-fledged star/strong WR2. I can feel it. This game was initially depressing at a box score level, but now I’m hopeful he’s about to ‘arrive’ after watching the tape.

Again, I say, if Davante Adams goes down…Lazard will be a WR1 in an instant.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4-96-1/6) is cute, but he cannot hold a candle compared to Lazard. Have some patience with Lazard for another week or two and see if I’m right that he pops to a strong WR2…a better-than-Darrius Slayton, Darrius Slayton-type WR in 2020.

 -- I’d be worried about Aaron Jones’s (16-66-1, 4-10-0/6) true upside in this offense ahead in 2020. Nothing on Jones but I see Green Bay is still into Jamaal Williams (7-21-0, 4-21-0/4) as a pass protector, rotational guy. Still, Jones rules the touches between them…and we got our first A.J. Dillon (2-14-0) glimpses and he’s already the best power back on the team, and he’ll emerge a little bit more each week.

Additionally, the Packers are in love with Tyler Ervin (3-38-0, 1-6-0/1) taking touches too.

Not that Jones is terrible, but that he’ll be crowded out on some touches enough where he doesn’t hit top 5 fantasy RB status as we go forward through the season…maybe he is ‘just’ top 10-15-20. If Jones ever goes down, the Packers will find they won’t miss him for two seconds. Also, note…all these lead RBs are getting paid ahead of free agency (Mixon, Cook, Kamara)…but the Packers haven’t done a thing with Jones (who is in a similar boat). They know…

 -- A lot was made of rookie Josiah Deguara (1-12-0/2) starting at TE, but note a couple of things…

1) The Packers haven’t had a good FF tight end since like Jermichael Finley. Remember how great Jimmy Graham was going to be here? No, you don’t…because it never happened. Not even close.

2) Deguara is solid, but Robert Tonyan (0-0-0/0) played the most TE snaps…for whatever that’s worth.

3) It speaks to what a waste of space Jace Sternberger is.

 -- Justin Jefferson (2-26-0/3) played more snaps than I realized…he out-snapped starter Bisi Johnson (3-56-0/4), and still not much FF numbers in the game.

Watching Jefferson for the first time on the pro level…

1) He’s not in sync with Cousins yet, and probably won’t be for several weeks if not until 2021.

2) He looks much smaller in the pro backdrop. Looks more average/forgettable, at a glance.

3) He had no business being a 1st-round pick…the power of Joe Burrow made him, as you’re seeing already from Burrow’s pro debuts who was the driver in that situation.

Jefferson is an overrated WR prospect. He’s good enough but way overrated. This WR class was scouted entirely wrong by all the analysts and scouts and team GMs.

 -- You’d think Irv Smith (1-11-0/1) might pop this year with the void in receivers after Adam Thielen, but…nope…one catch. We should all be moving on to other lesser TEs for TE fantasy roster depth who actually are involved in the offense more consistently.

 -- MIN LB Eric Wilson (3 tackles) only played 56% of the snaps as a starter this game, which is infuriating…but he might have been out because of the passing air raid happening. Let’s see if he plays more Week 2 before I give up having IDP hope in him.

 -- Odd IDP item…

Packers UDFA rookie LB Krys Barnes (7 tackles, 2 TFLs) somehow started this week…a guy elevated off the practice squad due to the COVID exception to do such things, he was brought up right before the game.

I didn’t see him as a Week 1 starter coming, but then he only played 15 snaps in this game…but then with those 15 plays…he made 7 tackles and had 2 TFLs??? He’s either amazing or lucky. He actually looked really solid/good. Put him on a watch list in deeper roster IDP leagues.

Snap Counts of Interest:

50 = Thielen

36 = Jefferson

33 = Bisi

32 = Rudolph

31 = Irv Smith

70 = Adams

68 = Lazard

42 = Marquez Valdes-Scantling

42 = A Jones (54%)

40 = J Williams

14 = Ervin

05 = Dillon

R.C. Fischer

FFM

18 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Rams 20, Cowboys 17

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

Well, this went about as I expected…the Rams might be a bit less talented than the Cowboys, overall, but I thought Sean McVay with weeks to plan would outfox empty suit head coach Mike McCarthy, and it was so.

The Rams neutralized the Dallas pass rush with a quick passing game and safe, stable, stoic middle rushing game…and they played good enough defense to stay with/ahead of Dallas and ultimately secure the victory. Either team could’ve won, but the Rams just played smarter/sounder and a bit more energetic.

Dallas’s schedule ahead should be easy enough to get them on track, but if they get caught napping against ATL Week 2…all hell will break loose in Dallas, already. Week 3 is at Seattle. It’s a kinda must-win game for Dallas Week 2.

The Rams are just a very fundamentally sound team. Not great. Not bad. Going to try to stay close and be smarter than their opponents to the finish line. This is not a great Rams team, but their defense is much better than expected and they have enough offense to play with most any team. The schedule ahead is also the Rams’ friend…they could be 5-3/6-2 entering their Week 9 bye.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I watched all the Cam Akers (14-39-0, 1-4-0/1) carries closely…I still don’t see ‘it’. No magical unicorn rookie ways here. Just a guy running straight between the tackles…not all that quickly, not enough mass to move a pile, not agile enough to kick it to the outside. He’s another David Montgomery-esque story to me…

I’m willing to give him more time, it’s still early…but I never see ‘it’ with him.

Malcolm Brown (18079-2, 3-31-0/4) was clearly the best/preferred back here, and he should be for most of the season. I cannot see where Akers just outshines him and takes it away. They’ll always split in some way.

Darrell Henderson (3-6-0) has a hope to be in the split, but he needs to go make a play first (in his limited opps). Sending Akers and Henderson straight up the middle was probably the specific game plan here, but it doesn’t help show them off/show their skills. Sean McVay seems so averse to Henderson it’s hard to hold on to him for FF…but he’s the talent of this group, so there’s that reason to hope against hope.

 -- What happened to Tyler Higbee (3-40-0/4)?

Just wasn’t a big part of the game plan as a receiver. The Rams went quick passing and heavy running…Higbee blocked a lot. Higbee played more snaps than any offensive skill player besides Jared Goff. Don’t fret.

Higbee also had a great schemed play where he had at least a 20-yard catch or possibly turned into a 40+ yard catch and run, but a well timed linebacker blitz forced Goff to throw early and off target and it hit a streaking Higbee down at the ankles for an incompletion. Had it been in stride, you would have had a solid 4-60-0 or 4-80-0 type line here. He’s fine.

 -- I focused on rookie CeeDee Lamb (5-59-0/6) in his debut. He looked fine. Again, nothing special. I’m not saying he’s ‘bad’…I just think he’s more ‘OK/good’ then ‘great/generational”, like he’s pushed at us by football people. He’s a better version of Jerry Jeudy and over time maybe develops into a DeAndre Hopkins type receiver…maybe. He didn’t look like a big difference maker in this debut, but he was fine.

Lamb was working his rookie debut and generating all this chatter, as lesser-lauded rookie WR Van Jefferson (1-31-0/3) looked just as good/better on the other side but you’re not allowed to think/speak of such things. Van is going to be starting soon, but the third wheel in this ever-declining Rams’ passing game isn’t that exciting for FF. Someday he’ll replace Robert Woods as that go-to strong WR2 for PPR fantasy.

 -- Dallas lost Blake Jarwin (1-12-0/1) for the season with injury this game, and Dalton Schultz (1-10-0/4) is not a replacement for FF. The loss of Jarwin helps CeeDee Lamb see more work, actually. Schultz will go most games with 1-2 targets.

 -- I initially thought Aldon Smith (11 tackles, 1.0 sacks) was looking spry and ready to go get 10+ sacks this season in his comeback to the NFL…but on the rewatch, I saw a slower DE who looked his age. Still viable but not dominant. I’m taking his IDP projections down some after I spiked them too enthusiastically Monday.

 -- Micah Kiser (7 tackles, 2 PDs) is the new middle linebacker for LAR, and he really played a good game…a classic run stopper who showed some coverage skills.

 -- The Rams-DST looked really nice overall. More talented than expected with Kiser stepping up and Troy Hill being a better cover corner than given credit. The surprise to me was some of the Rams’ new defensive starters.

Taylor Rapp is now a bench/bit player now in this new scheme/regime at D-C…after a great IDP run late last year. 6th-round rookie Jordan Fuller (8 tackles) started at safety and 3rd-year UDFA corner (poached from the Ravens’ practice squad) Darious Williams (4 tackles) played most of the game snaps as well, outta nowhere.

A lot of new starters in a Week 1 game, and the Rams defense pretty well help the Dallas offense under wraps.

The Rams-DST has a great schedule ahead too…

Week 2 = at PHI with their a corrupted O-Line

Week 3 = at Josh Allen, not a big fear.

Week 4 = vs. NYG

Week 5 = at Haskins (YES!!!)

Week 6 = at SF…suddenly not so hot on offense.

Week 7 = vs. Foles

Week 8 = at Tua

Snpa Counts of Interest:

65 = Higbee

62 = Kupp

61 = Woods

37 = JReyn

33 = Van Jefferson

44 = M. Brown

24 = Akers

05 = D Henderson

69 = Gallup

68 = Amari

59 = CeeDee

15 = Taylor Rapp

54 = Aldon Smith

R.C. Fischer

FFM

18 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Football Team 27, Eagles 17

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

I’m going to make a lot of bombastic, potentially reckless statements about things and players from this game…so, buckle up.

I have to begin with the following statement because it’s the lens this game has to be discussed through centrally…

Washington may be in possession of the best Defensive Line in all of football…the most talented, the deepest. Not only are the promising/emerging/potentially great…they may be one of the best Defensive Line groups to come along in years.

The Chiefs have Mahomes. The Ravens have Lamar. The Bills have a phenomenal pass defense. The Patriots have Bill Belichick. The Colts have their O-Line. There are teams we recognize and acknowledge as having ‘bests’ that we don’t question. They’ve earned the label. They are good-to-great teams you don’t want to play because of it. I think we have to add the Football Team’s Defensive Line to the list…if not now, then soon.

Many analysts think the 49ers or Chargers or Chiefs or Dallas has the best D-Line in the NFL, and they for sure are all worthy of discussion…the Redskins are better and deeper than all those contenders. It’s like a historically great D-Line potential. Like get them a nickname we can call them by type of D-Line.

Chase Young speaks for himself. We all acknowledge his greatness/potential. What we don’t fully credit/get is how good Montez Sweat is on the other end…he would have been a top 3 pick if rumor of a heart issue didn’t pop up like 8 seconds before the 2019 NFL Draft. Book ends of Young-Sweat…the most talented duo in all of football, especially rushing the passer. Just lacking in experience.

There are the marquee, 1st-round draft pick names on the edge, but Jonathan Allen, Da’Ron Payne, and Matt Ioannidis at DT are a phenomenal, deep rotation. That’s as good a DT group as there is in the NFL…and they get Young-Sweat as bookends now AND have Ryan Kerrigan and Ryan Anderson in the DL rotation as well.

You wonder why they had 8.0 sacks, 15 QB hits, two picks and three forced fumbles Week 1…it’s not just because ‘the Eagles O-Line is so bad’. That statement is providing cloud cover that is hiding just how great the Washington D-Line is. It’s a weapon all it’s own.

Washington can win the NFC East.

…but they have to make changes to get there, and I think they will make changes (forced to) – but it will take a few weeks before the come around to it and possibly it will be too late. The ‘changes’ they need to make are dire…needed changes ASAP, that I’m not sure they have the guts to make fast enough to seize this division.

What are those changes?

1) Alex Smith needs to go in for Dwayne Haskins (17-31 for 178 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) because he’s godawful. The best pressure front D-Line in football mixed with the worst QB in football (Tyrod Taylor trying to get into that conversation too). It’s a wasted opportunity. I think around Weeks 4-5, after a couple losses and some terrible play by Haskins to cause a bad loss…if Smith is ready, he’s coming in.

Smith would make Steven Sims very viable, and Logan Thomas more legit FF options. Terry McLaurin? Maybe. Not Smith’s style as much as the short pass guys. Smith would give this offense a great game manager…to let the defense do their thing to win games.

2) The need a real running back. What if Le’Veon Bell winds up here? What if Antonio Gibson is a revelation? That’s weeks away on either. No one is afraid of Peyton Barber.

3) The biggest thing besides QB that needs changing…Washington has this great front line on defense and then paired it with the worst linebacking group in the NFL. A house/defense divided will not stand against teams like Dallas or Indy that can drive the ball right up the gut at teams. Also, good TEs will feast in the passing game…and thus Ertz-Goedert with 11 catches for 119 yards and 2 TDs combined this game. Washington is the new Cardinals 2019 in pass defense against TEs, potentially (see if Dan Arnold does anything with that this week).

Washington has some linebackers on the depth chart to go to…Thomas Davis. Cole Holcomb. Shaun Dion-Hamilton…but Ron Rivera is going with Jon Bostic and Kevin Pierre-Louis and I cannot believe he is. I’m stunned…it’s the Miami/Brian Flores backfield logic here with Washington’s linebackers – the worst players on the positional depth chart are actually starting.

The pieces are in place for Washington, they just need to connect them all…it might take weeks to do it…and then be too late for a shock season.

On the other side of the ballgame…we have the Eagles. The Eagles are in trouble. So many O-Line injuries. Terrible wide receivers. But a good defense and so-so/solid QB, but Wentz can only do so much with this O-Line.

A big-time unrest from the Eagles fans could be coming in the next 4-5 weeks…and the fans will demand that they should turn to Jalen Hurts at QB. Why? To change the game off the problematic O-Line. The Eagles are one more injury (Lane Johnson done or Jason Peters done) away from having no real O-Line. They can help neutralize OL issues with a running QB. If you see Hurts start jumping in goal line packages and 4th & 1s soon and he starts making plays…there absolutely will be a ‘Jalen is our Lamar’ revolt if the Eagles are 2-4 after 6 games and floundering, while Hurts is looking slick and Wentz is struggling. That day is coming…could be Week 3…could be Week 10…but the groundswell will happen.

As far as this game goes…the Eagles led 17-0. When Washington couldn’t get to Wentz early, he made some throws to wide-open receivers over the linebackers and corners. But as the game went on the pressure kept mounting, creating INTs and sacks/fumbles, which allowed Washington to crawl back into the game…and ended up winning going away.  

You don’t know what Washington Football Team you’re going to get quarter to quarter right now. Is it the sad Haskins’ offensive one? Is it the bad linebacker group one? Or is it the D-Line pressure that creates turnovers and flips the field and changes momentum in an instant one? I could see the Arizona Cardinals beating Washington by 30+ this week…or Kyler gets sacked 5-10 times in a surprising loss to Washington.

If the Eagles lose to the Rams this week…all hell is going to break loose in Philly if Dallas and Washington (and NYG) win and send Philly to the early basement.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Antonio Gibson (9-36-0, 2-8-0/2) looked promising but it’s limited touches so it’s hard to know what he can fully do. He still seems a bit lost and that hurts him if any impediment is in the way to negotiate. He also, for his size/athleticism, is easy to tackle. He goes down like a WR not a 6’2”/220+ RB. Gibson needs more seasoning. He’s going to see work in some games they are losing and probably rack some numbers in garbage time. I just don’t know if he’s 2-3 weeks away or 5+ weeks or a season away…or if he ever ‘arrives’ fully.

 -- J.D. McKissic (3-0-0, 1-1-0/5) had a nightmare game, but note he led all Washington RBs in snaps and got 5 targets, just Haskins is so incompetent. He’ll have better days. Just a PPR flex flyer.

 -- Steven Sims (3-50-0/3) looks so good…I want to love him so much, but as long as Haskins is there you have no idea what he’s going to get for targets…but usually it will be a disappointment.

When Alex Smith arrives, I want back in…or Kyle Allen…anyone but Haskins.

 -- Logan Thomas (4-37-1/8) looked fine too, but again…’Haskins’. Could be 2-15-0/5 next week and no one cares anymore.

 -- You’re all excited about Dallas Goedert (8-101-1/9) and you want to play him all the time for the rest of the season…just note that he faced the most incompetent linebacker group you could have trying to cover him. Don’t be surprised if Goedert falls to earth next week or the week after and settles back into a #10-15 fantasy TE week-to-week.

 -- Jalen Reagor (1-55-0/4) was not working the slot, he was doing DeSean Jackson like work…bombs away. Made a great deep ball catch, nearly had 1-2 more. Erratic hope for Reagor next week. Great DFS option/hail mary.

 -- I don’t care what anyone says…Boston Scott (9-35-0, 2-19-0/2) is a better RB talent than Miles Sanders…in all facets. Doug Pederson doesn’t believe that, but Pederson is about to get run from Philly if they don’t make the playoffs this season. The Eagles have progressively gotten worse ever since their Super Bowl Foles moment. Pederson, like Dan Quinn after his Super Bowl random landing, hasn’t sustained or improved the organization after.

Scott is a similar, maybe better, Austin Ekeler, but Philly is too blind to see it I think. Hard to see when their heads are so far up Miles Sanders’s arse they can’t see straight.

Scott was looking solid here but got hurt and missed a chunk of the game.

 -- Should we pick up the Washington-DST now?

I mean, I just called them like the greatest pass rush team of the decade…how could we not? Don’t forget…they have the worst linebacker group of the last decade and shaky cornerback play. The CBs can hang because of the pass rush helping them. The linebackers are a problem.

In Dynasty, with a long-term view…not bad to have them for the road ahead.

Redraft…versus Arizona Week 2? They could consume Kyler, or Kyler short passes them like he did SF just last week and buries the Football Team. It’s a gamble…but Washington-DST will be an all-season gamble. They will have a lot of sacks and strip sack fumbles and pressure forced INTs, whether they get beaten or not.

Week 3 vs. CLE…you like it, but Chubb/Hunt could gut those linebackers.

Week 4 vs. BAL…they will get destroyed.

Week 5 v. LAR/Goff…maybe.

Week 6 at NYG, yep.

Week 7 v. DAL…maybe if the O-Line is still banged up.

Week 8 = BYE

This defense is promising, dangerous but has serious holes and may need time to fully gel. Weeks 3 maybe and Week 6, I’m in for a play. If no other options of note…this pass rush is always an option. But mark my words, the linebacker group and Haskins not holding up his end is going to make this a hair tearing out DST play week-to-week.

Snap Counts of Interest:

31 = McKissic

29 = Barber

18 = Gibson

58 = Ertz

54 = Goedert

40 = Reagor

37 = DeSean

30 = Ward

28 = JJAW

27 = Hightower

R.C. Fischer

FFM

17 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Cardinals 24, 49ers 20

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

For Week 1, ahead of time, I wanted to play/bet/pick on games where I thought there was a huge gap in coaching in the matchup. With months to prepare, gimme the genius/savvy over the sloppy/weak/dumb. It was a brilliant plan…

I won the Rams outright as a dog with McVay over Ralph Kramden/Mike McCarthy.

Easy survivor pick win of Tomlin over Judge/Garrett.

Harbaugh over Stefanski was free money even with the big line.

McDermott over Gase was child’s play.

On that same vibe, I was even more sure (going in) Kyle Shanahan would wreck Kliff Kingsbury with months to prepare.

Well…you can’t win them all, R.C.

I have to call it as I see it…Kingsbury ran circles around Shanahan here. Better game plan. And more importantly…better team/effort/talent/play.

I want to see Week 2, to see if Week 1 was a hoax, as it can often be…but…

I can see the Cardinals as potentially being better, overall, than the 49ers now. Not just because of this ‘win’. You know that’s not how I roll. It could’ve been a fluky win with lots of weird turnovers/the better team found a way to not win (like the Bengals v. LAC or IND v. JAX)…but it wasn’t that. This was the Cardinals outplaying, outsmarting the 49ers. Words I NEVER thought I would type, but here we are. The Cardinals have offensive firepower…and the 49ers, well…don’t.

Before Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello gets too big a head about it…don’t forget your (-8.0 favorite) Colts lost straight up to the Jags. We all have our losses… But Chris was right all along (after one week) – the Cardinals improved their defensive talent and Kyler is good enough to carry the offense and the O-Line. At times, I watched the All-22 tape of this one with no sound and just watched the O-Line v. D-Line, and the Cardinals were the better team in the trenches…and that is sobering news for the 49ers (but it could’ve been one game, one plan, or wildfires).

It’s potential playoff ticket time for Arizona, and I couldn’t be happier about being wrong about Kliff/his koaching or the Kardinals. I bow in respect and humility to Kliff (for this week).

Next week, it might be ‘see, I told you Kliff can’t koach’…that’s if they lose to the then-will-be 2-0 ‘Football Team’.

The 49ers took a quick 10-0 lead in this game and I was like…see, I told you so. Then the Cardinals blocked a punt to set themselves up in the red zone and changed the whole game landscape/feel and wrecked the 49ers from there. The Cards beat/handled the 49ers, at SF. We’ll see how much of that is – the 49ers are far more inferior than anyone realized and how much is the improved Arizona Cardinals, as time goes on. Right now, I’m very impressed with the new look Cardinals and I’m taking back my 49ers NFC Super Bowl rep. pick…except I’m not sure exactly who to give it to. Maybe the Cardinals? Let’s not go that far after one whole week…

Don’t be surprised if the 49ers struggle with the Jets this week, and then all panic will ensue…and then Shanahan should consider firing his D-C Robert Saleh (being extremely physically fit, shaving your head, and constant fist pumping does not necessarily equal ‘great coach’).

The Cardinals face the heavy pass rush, and nothing else, of Washington Week 2. The quick passing game of Kyler may neutralize and thump the Football Team back into their hole this week…and then a 5-0 start is staring Arizona in the face from there.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let’s begin, as we do with Arizona recaps the past year, with my heavily personally invested Kyler Murray (26-40 for 230 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 13 -91-1) stock report…

Good news/bad news.

Good news = This is the most I’ve seen Kyler Murray run the ball with purpose and more willing to scramble and go than I can recall vs. 2019. We’re going to get a big year for fantasy if he is willing to run like this all season.

Bad news = This passing game looks a lot like last year’s passing game…a bunch of short passes, not a ton of time to sit and survey and throw. I haven’t seen a chart of it but I’m not sure Kyler threw a pass over five yards more than 4-5 times it seemed.

*now going to look for data to support that, or not* Kyler’s air yards per completion (yards past the LOS the ball travelled on completed passes) was 3.7 yards in this game. He averaged 5.4 yards in that last season. I pulled a random example to compare: Aaron Rodgers averaged 5.6 air yards per completion in 2019, 6.5 air yards per in Week 1 of 2020. It was a dink and dunk festival for Kyler here.

Now, it may have been by plan to neutralize the pass rush…not giving the one thing SF had on defense over ARI (the pass rush front) a chance to materialize. Which makes me think of Jared Goff v. DAL this week, who did the same thing on purpose, so let’s go look at his air yards per completed pass…

Goff bested Rodgers and Murray last year with 6.1 air yards per completion in the 2019 season. But he only pulled a 4.0 in Week 1 vs. Dallas…and he was doing that on purpose. Kyler had the same low number Week 1 v. SF…so, it looks like ‘by plan’ to neutralize the opposition’s pass rush/protect your weak O-Line. If so, Kliff Kingsbury is a genius head coach; like I’ve always said.

It was there, free and easy, so Kyler just kept quick firing to DeAndre Hopkins (15-151-0/16). Why? Because he could. If teams now overplay Hopkins, it’s going to be bombs away with Kirk-Arnold-Fitz.

This Kyler ‘bad news’…is actually not bad news at all, potentially. Week 2 v. WAS is another high-pressure front…let’s see what Kyler does there.

 -- I was stunned to see the disparity of touches between Kenyan Drake (16-60-1, 2-5-0/2) and Chase Edmonds (6-26-0, 3-19-1/5). I thought, before seeing it, that they were more 50/50. I think that happened in my mind because Edmonds is better than Drake, in general, and just stood out more.

This is a 67/33 backfield…until it isn’t. I think Edmonds might end up forcing a 50/50 at some point…neutralizing both to 10 +/- carries and 1-2 targets a game. But, for now Drake is the one to own.

 -- Christian Kirk (1-0-0/5) will likely be traded before the trade deadline…Arizona will have needs/holes to fill and Kirk is mostly meaningless to them. They could get many other WRs to play his same role. This is Hopkins’s team now.

You want to play Kirk/ARI when Arizona faces a low-pressure front D-Line and Kyler doesn’t have to quick pass all the time, and Kirk not running deep as a decoy every play.

 -- Dan Arnold (2-21-0/2) is more important to this passing game than Kirk, right now. Arnold is strongly in the TE2 conversation and potential bye week fill-in. He’ll have a hard time being a consistent TE1 for FF in this particular offense, but he’s going to have a splash game soon and send people chasing into him for their rosters…and then they’ll drop him soon after.

There is upside hope here. He looked really nice in his two targets, the way they use him. He could be a TE1 on just 4-5 targets a game and being their end zone threat.

 -- The SF story of the game was the backfield…

Raheem Mostert (15-56-0, 4-95-1/5) played the heavy lead role because Tevin Coleman (4-18-0) had health issues that limited him. Mostert had a kinda broken coverage 76-yard TD. Outside of that, 71 total yards and 3 catches.

Outside of that big play, SF had less than 300 yards in this game.

The big story here is the return of Jerick McKinnon (3-24-0, 3-20-1/5). He looked really good. He was a key part of the game plan. He’s going to be the receiving back and will keep working his way into touches. Mostert’s upside is limited on this…and Tevin Coleman is really hurt by McKinnon’s rise.

 -- George Kittle (4-44-0/5) may miss Week 2, in which case another return-from-long-time-injury guy has a spotlight chance to have FF impact…Jordan Reed (2-12-0/2). He only played 10 snaps and saw two targets…but watching his routes and cuts, he looks really good. Really sharp. A steal for SF if he stays healthy.

If Kittle misses this week, Ross Dwelley would probably start, and Reed play a lot more passing downs and two-TE sets.

 -- I have to say this…

R.I.P. Dante Pettis’s career. It officially ended here.

A guy so maligned for effort, etc., and then having this chance (with all the SF injuries) to clap back at his critics and show his coaches – well, mid game Pettis sprinted deep, got open by 2-3 yards, Jimmy G. launched one right to him…all he had to do was reach out and grab it. Pettis never seemed to lift his arms to even attempt to catch the pass. In some way, it could’ve been the play that cost SF the game.

That was Pettis’s one and only target this game…and, possibly, this year with SF.

 -- Let’s talk SF-DST…

This group was already a bit of a cornerback concern but now Richard Sherman (4 tackles) is out and this group is going to be reeling and I don’t think D-C Robert Saleh has any answers for anything besides lifting more reps in the weight room, eating a protein bar, drinking a red bull, and pumping his fist extra hard for Week 2. I’d almost say it’s time to bail on the SF-DST but they face Darnold, Dan Dimes, Wentz, Tua the next four weeks.

 -- Let’s talk about the better defense this day, the Cardinals-DST…

Free agent acquisition De’Vondre Campbell (7 tackles) deserved a share of the MVP trophy for this game. The defense that couldn’t cover the TE in 2019…was a whole lot better this game…I mean, a whole lot better and it was thanks in most part to Campbell. Great game by him.

BUT I THOUGHT Isaiah Simmons (3 tackles) was going to save the day!!! He was the guy who got burned so badly on the Mostert long TD…we didn’t see much of him after that. Not a fan of what I saw of Simmons here at all.

Imagine if the Cardinals had drafted an O-Lineman instead?

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Kittle

10 = Reed

07 = Dwelley

37 = Mostert

19 = McKinnon

06 = Coleman

58 = Drake

28 = Edmonds

45 = D Arnold

43 = Maxx Williams

14 = Isabella

18 = I. Simmons

R.C. Fischer

FFM

17 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Steelers 26, Giants 16

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

*I used speech-to-text to set up the first draft of this, so forgive any weird ‘sounds like’ glaring mistakes. I tried to correct everything before publish, but...

This game was interesting for a minute… The Steelers muffed a punt return on their very first touch of the 2020 season and set the Giants up with a first and goal for what should’ve been an easy TD. Instead, the Steelers defense rose up to halt them to three points…a miscommunication between Daniel Jones and Evan Engram blew an easy TD chance, and the Giants took a 3-0 lead. Soon after, after the Steelers answered with their own field-goal, the Giants took a surprising 10-3 lead…and then people started to get worried about Ben’s mechanics, rustiness or whatever.

Just when some Steelers fears started happening, Pittsburgh then scored the next 23 points and took a commanding lead, giving up of late garbage TD. It took about a quarter and a half for the Steelers to get going but eventually the better team won.

I thought it would be a more challenging test in Week 2 hosting Denver but the Steelers got lucky and the Broncos suddenly have several key injuries going into Week 2, so the Steelers are in line to start out (2-0).

I thought the Giants played OK. Gave it the old college try. Good effort. But in the end it was a few fluky turnovers that helped the Giants take an early lead and gain early momentum -- but they never came close to sustaining it and they were never really in control of the game at any point. The Steelers wiped out Saquon Barkley and let Daniel Jones cough them up the required turnovers.

I thought the Giants might be the worst team in the NFL coming into the season, and they’re definitely bottom 10 and maybe bottom five but probably not the worst 1-2-3 in the league. We’ll see.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 — Let’s discuss the debut of Big Ben (21-32 for 229 yards, 3 TD/0 INT).

I thought he was fine. A little shaky in that first quarter. It looks like some of the arm angles he was trying to throw from were worrisome…not sure if it was the situation/pressure or if Ben was trying to protect his arm, but as time went on Ben started to find his groove. There’s no reason for concern with Ben’s arm that I see. He looked fine. He looked more comfortable and in control and not playing as risky as he used to in my mind.

 — The story of this game really was Diontae Johnson (6-57-0/10), he had quite a journey in this one, and I covered this in great detail on the Tuesday video Q&A early in the show, you might want to watch/listen if you didn’t…

But the short version is Diontae muffed a punt near the goal line to start the game, turning the momentum of this game right away. Diontae also dropped a pass early, and just generally looked out of sync. He wasn’t doing much for Fantasy the first half. Midgame, Ben dropped back to pass and threw a quick strike timing pass Diontae’s way…only Diontae thought it was a running play, and the pass hit him right between the numbers in the back. It was that kind of game for Diontae for about half of it.

I felt like Mike Tomlin was about to bench him. I thought Big Ben was going to give up on him, even if just for the game/moment. BUT they didn’t…and that was the key to this thing and his fantasy future in 2020 – the powers that be didn’t give up on Diontae. Not only did they not give up on Diontae through his struggles, Ben pulled him aside and got him straightened out/pepped him up and then started really going to him with targets – AND THEN even better to Diontae‘s credit, he shook off the weird start and completely turned his game around and made some very good looking plays. The kinda plays you expect from Diontae…the kind of Antonio Brown type future view started to flash a little bit and Diontae led the team in targets when it was all said and done. What was almost a disaster for two quarters ended up in the most future encouraging way possible.

I think our Diontae Johnson lottery tickets are going to start to pay off. Worst case he’s going to be that solid WR2 you can count on most weeks in PPR, but there’s a chance for a greatness breakout coming right around the corner. I was never more depressed than watching Diontae in that first half and never more encouraged watching all of them stick with him and rallying to a nice performance/usage in the second half. Very excited.

Juju Smith-Schuster (6-69-2/6) caught the TDs, so there seems to be some Diontae fears that he’s not Ben’s guy, that JuJu is – but I think we saw that Diontae just might be Ben’s guy…or at least 1b guy.

 — Week 1 might’ve seen the beginning of the shift to Diontae as the Steelers top wide receiver, but we also may have seen the changing of the guard at running back. It looks like Benny Snell (19-113-0, 0-0-0/1) is making the hostile takeover I was predicting within 4-5 weeks into the season, only it happened 4-5 series into this game.

James Conner got hurt, as he does, and opened the door to Snell. The focus should not be on Conner getting hurt and Snell now getting a chance – the extra story is James Conner looked terrible, as he does, and is not playing at an NFL starting level. It’s not like Christian McCaffrey got hurt and Mike Davis looked good in relief, and now we speculate Davis is starting going forward -- no one would think McCaffrey’s going to the bench off of minor injury. But we can believe it with Conner because, as I said for 2+ years, Conner is not that good of a running back. He does not have the juice in his legs to be a serious, impact NFL starter. He’s OK. He can be a third string fill-in guy. He’s not a number one.

The Steelers insist that he is a #1 lead back because he tugs at the heartstrings with his incredible personal background story. I hate to be a callous jerk, but I have to when it comes to football and making money – I don’t want to hear about Conner’s heartwarming story anymore, I want the focus to be on the fact that he has no business starting in the NFL and it’s killing the Steelers offense of upside. I’ve got two or three people in my neighborhood with tragic human-interest story backgrounds of things they are working through – that doesn’t mean they should be the starting running back for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Fans and the Steelers organization, and more specifically Mike Tomlin, needs to get over this and rip the Band-Aid off and move on.

Now, with that said, I know what will happen – the second he can return he will be right back starting as the supposed bell cow. Mike Tomlin is not gonna allow himself to be embarrassed here. He’s going to show you how smart he is and how dumb we are for thinking anything otherwise on Conner. But eventually football wins and losses will win out and Tomlin will have no choice but to turn his back on Conner.

The problem for Mike Tomlin is that he’s selected an alternative with Benny Snell, who’s not all that much better than Conner. What NFL coaches see in certain running backs, like Mike Tomlin, like Pete Carroll, like what Brian Flores has wrought RB devastation in with Miami…I have no idea what they see. But I’ve been doing this long enough to know they are not helping their offenses with what they’re doing with slow non-agile running backs who can’t evade hits well because of their speed/agility and they are fumble and injury prone because of it. Conner is the embodiment of that. Benny Snell may be in store for the same future.

Tomlin will give Conner another shot or ten, so your Benny Snell stock will be a shaky hold once Conner returns…but eventually this will be Snell as a lead running straight ahead making basic plays and being the lead dog RB for the Steelers – and that’s valuable thing to see whether it’s aesthetically pleasing or not.

What I’m hoping is that Conner ends up on IR or something and is totally out-of-the-way, and then we get to the Benny Snell era Tomlin will force on us… But then I’m secretly watching what might be the last best chance for Jaylen Samuels to show he’s the best all-around running back on the Steelers. He got a few touches in this game and he looks fine/good. I know he’s better than Conner or Snell. He may have some personal issues that causes Mike Tomlin to hate him, but his play may end up forcing everyone’s hand at some point.

It’s also possible Le’Veon Bell‘s gonna wind up back here, but there’s a lot of time between now and Week 5 for many things to develop in the Steelers backfield. But the Le’Veon to Pittsburgh reunion just took a step closer based on the Conner flop and Le’Veon on the shelf for a bad Jets team.

 — Darius Slayton (6-102-2/9) scored two TDs and I barely own him in any league I’m associated with, so it was nothing but frustration watching it occur against my fantasy teams in various places.

I walked away from the live watch thinking – damn, that Darius Slayton and his lucky TDs. But after the rewatch, I started to realize I might be the idiot here.

First off, I should know better than whenever a player I’m not into one way or the other starts having some consistent production in touchdowns catches…I can only say it’s lucky or situational so many times before I should realize at a certain point it’s not luck.

Secondly, when I watched this game tape assuming it was more fortuitous Slayton…I instead saw a Slaton I’ve never seen before. All last year, Slaton struggled being a real wide receiver all over the field. His specialty was going deep and making plays on jump ball tight throws. He wasn’t much for strong routes and great hands in the interior. And that was my vision of him going into 2020 -- guy who makes some random good plays working with a QB that I don’t trust equals not excited for Fantasy.

However, in this Week 1 game I saw Slayton working the interior of the field like a boss. I saw some tremendous #1 wide receiver plays that I’ve never seen from Slayton before. I could’ve just missed it in my scouting bias. Or he may just have taken this game to another level in the off-season. Whatever it is – I saw a Pro Bowl level, star wide receiver in Darius Slayton in Week 1.

Now, before we all get excited and try to go and trade for him – it’s not the greatest time to go make a move coming off a two TD game. However, I think most people don’t value Slayton as any more than a good, useful WR for FF on a shaky team/offense. Despite the big game, he still kind of flies under the radar. If you want in on him, you might be able to sneak in under the guise of someone thinking they’re selling him high to you, but they don’t sell it high enough because they think they’re committing a bank robbery as it is.

Of course, if Slayton goes 3-30-0/7 next week…the price will be in half and you can get much easier. Just note…keep your eye on Slayton developing into a legit, strong WR1.5 WR now.

 -- Darius Slayton was more impressive than Saquon Barkley (15-6-0, 6-60-0/9)…another rushing ‘gem’ from the one with great quads.

It’s not Saquon’s fault…this is what happened to David Johnson in 2018. Todd Gurley 2017. Bad offense. Bad coaching. Everyone knows they are running the ball. Teams stack 10 in the box. The offense runs right into it anyway. Also, see: Leonard Fournette 2019. But we malign David Johnson and Fournette for it for years…while we make excuse after excuse for Saquon, because he has funny/huge quads.

Are you sure Saquon is as great as they say he is? Just sayin’…

I could get Nyheim Hines to give me the non-TD numbers Saquon put up this game.

 -- Evan Engram (2-9-0/7) had an FF-dud. Come to me, and I’ll buy all his stock from you at half price. Let me have it.

Engram nearly had the game’s first TD (off the muff punt event). He had a sweet 25-yard grab, called back for a shaky P.I. and had another end zone shot not work out later. Just an unlucky game, of sorts, for Engram.

Go and buy low, like he’s a #10-12 TE not a top 5 monster. I have confidence in Engram being a TE1 this year worst case, but a possibly top 3 scorer overall at TE.

 -- A player who didn’t have an unlucky game…Chase Claypool (2-39-0/2, 1-8-0). Wow. The best-looking rookie WR Week 1 to my eyes, and he’s just getting started.

In 2020, Claypool is going to be a WR3-4, flex hope in BYE weeks ahead. Random up and down games based on him not really being a starter but playing near starter snaps.

In 2021, the WR group of Diontae, Claypool, and Washington will be the best WR trio in football.

Claypool got better treatment as a backup than Bryan Edwards did as the main snap WR starter.

We will look back at Claypool, Pittman, Edwards, possibly Mims and Duvernay will be seen as the best WRs from  this bumper crop class…and Lamb-Jeudy-Ruggs-Jefferson-Aiyuk-Reagor will be seen as ‘mistakes’ by comparison.

 -- IDP note… Corey Ballentine (9 tackles) is starting at corner for the Giants, and he’s a very aggressive, tough-minded corner. He can tackle like a safety playing corner. He’s going to be nice for IDP all season, I think.

Snap Counts of Interest:

64 = Engram

58 = Slayton

53 = Shepard

55 = Diontae

55 = JuJu

37 = Washington

19 = Claypool

40 = Ebron

38 = McDonald

29 = Snell

20 = Samuels

15 = Conner

R.C. Fischer

FFM

17 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Chargers 16, Bengals 13

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The Chargers are a tough out – because of a rugged defense. Stout front four. Improved linebacking. Two good+ corners. It’s a top NFL defense. Their offense is pretty flimsy, but it plays to the defense…ball control, run game, no turnovers, hope to win 16-13 type games.

We think of the Bengals as ‘lesser’ (for good reason). They started a rookie QB in his debut game…quite a tough first matchup. A lot of things favoring LAC here, but I tell you that the Bengals played toe-to-toe here…and, for me, were the slightly better team this day (because of the QB differential mostly).

The Chargers are who you think they are…a scrappy, defense-first .500 team trying to sneak to 9-7. Four tough games ahead with KC-CAR-@TB-@NO. The Chargers should be 2-3 after Week 5, but if they are 1-4…this thing might be over already. If they come out of this stretch 3-2…the playoffs (wild card) are in sight. I think they’re going to be a 6-7-8 win team overall still.

The Bengals should’ve won…they hit a TD pass late for the win, but it was called back for a touchy P.I. They then missed a chip shot FG to tie when the kicker hurt himself approaching the kick. The Bengals are going to be the Bengals…

…but I think they might go whack the Browns on TNF Week 2 and send their Ohio brethren really reeling.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let’s report out on Joe Burrow’s (23-36 for 193 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 8-46-1) debut…

My first impression (live) was it was what you’d expect from a rookie…a little wobbly, a bit underwhelming, but not bad.

My impression after the rewatch – it was, for a rookie debut against a top NFL defense, a REALLY fine debut. You have to consider how good the LAC pass defense is and watch Burrow not flinch, comfortably dissect it a lot to really grade this performance. It was a tough first ‘test’. Burrow wasn’t all that shaky. He looked mostly comfortable and in control and already 10x better than Tyrod Taylor. Burrow looked shaky at times when under the LAC pressure, but I thought he really handled it well and didn’t look like a rookie at all/overall. Very impressed.

Because Burrow breathes life into the team, because it now has a real QB who gives them a chance to win…the whole team played better/with more pep. Burrow was down 16-13 with 3:06 left and embarked on a final, 14-play drive that had his game winning TD pass called back or it would have been a legendary debut…a come from behind win against a very stout defense.

If you have Burrow as your #2 fantasy QB, which he and Gardner Minshew (and Matt Stafford) have been part of our 2nd QB plan behind Mahomes-Lamar…then you’re in good shape. Burrow is only going to get better and he will run the ball too.

I think, having to decide right now, I’d rather have Burrow over Minshew for 2020 in 4pts per pass TD (because of the running differential)…not having to need to use either for a few weeks and letting them develop more. Six points per pass TD, is a toss-up but might lean Minshew for the conditions he’ll play in and be in situations for more throwing. If I knew they were going to get equal pass attempts…if I knew that the rest of the season…in a few weeks, I’d want Burrow from that point going forward.

Burrow is as good as advertised…and he likes to run it occasionally, and he’s a savvy runner.

 -- Who does Burrow like to throw to?

It’s only been a game, so we’re jumping to conclusions that might be bad, but…

A.J. Green (5-51-0/9) seemed to be preferred, but honestly Burrow was not leaning on anyone. Burrow is a smart QB and takes what is there. He doesn’t have to force or play pitch and catch.

Which that last statement hurts pitch and catch WR Tyler Boyd (4-33-0/5), who didn’t get his first catch until midway through the 3rd-quarter. There will be better days ahead for Boyd, as Burrow grows…Boyd will rise too.

What really caught my attention was how comfortable Burrow was throwing to C.J. Uzomah (4-45-0/5)…there was a near-miss 20+ yard TD that coulda/shoulda happened between them. It’s Uzomah as the FF play way over Drew Sample (1-7-0/1). CJU looking decent makes sense, when you think about it – Burrow made terrible Thaddeus Moss a star in college, he can make average CJU a viable option in the NFL. I thought Sample might hitch a ride, but it looks strongly that it's Uzomah.

Uzomah had 49 snaps, Sample 24.

 -- Then there is the other QB…Tyrod Taylor (16-30 for 208 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 6-7-0). One of the silliest/nothing QB performances of 2020 – just the way Anthony Lynn wants it.

Tyrod Taylor has two types of throws…

1) He senses one-on-one deep and just chucks a balloon out hoping for a catch…which works sometimes if the WR is a boss (see: Mitch Trubisky style Week 1), but it’s not real QB play. Anyone can loft one-on-one bombs.

2) If forced to not loft a bomb, Tyrod fires blindly and off-target to a receiver running a real short-medium tight route and it has little chance of landing.

The most basic of general QB play happens with Tyrod…so when the defenses they face improve or they need a two-minute drill comeback effort, Tyrod is going to let them down. LAC cannot win a playoff game with Tyrod…much less a Super Bowl.

 -- Consider the two types of throws I just mentioned…

The #1 above favors, REALLY favors, Mike Williams (4-69-0/9). Tyrod’s main receiver is Williams (because of this ‘up for grabs’ throwing)…no further debate needed. If you can buy low into Mike Williams, it’s not a bad idea. He’s likely going to break his collarbone any week now because he’s constantly jumping and diving for these floaters – but he’s really good catching them when healthy.

Williams was 4-69-0 stat line for the game…but it was close to 6-7 catches and 100+ and a TD. ‘Stock up’ for Williams for sure.

Which leaves Tyrod throw type #2…’stock down’ for Keenan Allen (4-37-0/8). It was painful to watch he and Tyrod trying to connect. Philip Rivers is not walking through that door. I thought Cam Newton-N’Keal Harry was a bad match/pairing…Tyrod-Keenan is worse…as I suspected back to the preseason.

 -- How about the LAC RBs?

Justin Jackson got hurt and sprung the door open for Josh Kelley (12-60-1), and Kelley looked very good. Not rattled at all.

I’m a fan of Kelley like many are, but I struggle to see him breaking out here for FF. The O-Line was suspect before and is now banged up already. Tyrod doesn’t scare defenses, so they cheat up to play Anthony Lynn’s run game. Tyrod doesn’t throw passes comfortably to RBs (thus the 1 target to an RB this game…while Philip Rivers had 17 of them to RBs in his debut). Philip Rivers is not walking through that door…

Kelley is good, but if he’s going to get 8-15 carries and 0-2 targets a game behind a choppy O-Line and a bad QB who isn’t going to get the team to the goal line often – why should I (redraft) go crazy for Kelley, when I could have boring, cheaper guys like Malcolm Brown…or even Adrian Peterson instead? Don’t be an ageist here.

Kelley is not the lead dog RB and will never be in 2020…that’s reserved for Austin Ekeler (19-84-0, 1-3-0/1). You know Ekeler? Speedy guy, great in space in the passing game? Anthony Lynn knew this and ran Ekeler up the middle all game and tossed him one target. Brilliant. This is why we had Ekeler on the overvalued report coming into this season…it’s not Ekeler, it’s Tyrod and Lynn.

 -- IDP notes from both teams…

Rookie ILB Kenneth Murray (8 tackles) looked fine in his debut. Nothing stood out one way or the other. He was just energized and good.

Cincy ILB Germaine Pratt (12 tackles) DID catch my attention…he was quick to the ball, solid in tackling, and high energy. Quite impressed with him.

LAC DT Jerry Tillery (2 tackles, 1 sack) had a couple moments where you might think he’s the best DT in the NFL…big and fast and such reach/wingspan.

Snap Counts of Interest:

57 = Ross

55 = Boyd

45 = Green

15 = MK Thomas

15 = Higgins

40 = Mixon (weak amount of snaps for his status and a very ‘meh’ performance…his bank account statement may be weighing him down)

20 = Gio

50 = Ekeler

18 = Kelley

11 = Justin Jackson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

16 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Patriots 21, Dolphins 11

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

Miami scored their first TD of the game/season in the 4th-quarter and suddenly this game was only 14-11 Patriots lead with 10+ minutes left. It was a game, but then the Patriots drove down and scored right after and kinda sucked the life out of Miami and put them to sleep.

The Dolphins played about as hacked up and perplexing as they did the second half of 2019, when they would win games they shouldn’t and lose games you thought they’d win. They’re a mediocre-to-bad, erratic team. The Patriots aren’t great, but played mistake free, have the better defense and coaching and just wrestled this game to the ground and subdued it.

I’m not thinking the Patriots are any better than a 9-7 type team this year, but probably 10-6 because of Belichick, after watching them here. It was more my Miami hopes for an upside were dashed here. Using Myles Gaskin heavy...as Jordan Howard and Matt Breida sit on the bench is the sure sign that Brian Flores has lost his mind, especially when it comes to RBs. This is the guy who swore Kalen Ballage was a lead RB and better than Kenyan Drake.

Drake is now the 2nd/3rd-highest paid RB in the NFL and Ballage was a free agent until 24 hours ago (as of this writing). I sell all my Flores stock, even after the haircut it took from this game…I just want to dump it all, take my losses, and move on.

Yet…I wouldn’t be surprised if Miami beat Buffalo this week…at Miami, 90 degrees, humid.

The Patriots go to Seattle Week 2 and we’ll get another clue on how good Belichick is if he can pull a win there. If NE loses, they could be staring at a 5-5 record or worse after Week 11. Their schedule is choppy/unkind ahead. If the Pats beat Seattle and then Las Vegas the next two weeks and starts out (3-0), Belichick should get a special wing of the Hall of Fame to himself.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- What’s up with the Miami backfield situation?

I don’t know, but I do know that I do not want any part of it.

Are you kidding me…? First series of the game -- Jordan Howard (8-7-1) started, and then on 3rd-down I see a Gaskins-Laird backfield-duo, and then into series two and three it’s the Myles Gaskin (9-40-0, 4-26-0/4) show. Pure insanity.

You cannot possess Jordan Howard AND Matt Breida, and then purposefully go with Myles Gaskin. You absolutely have to have a screw loose as an NFL head coach. I’m not joking. I’m not trying to be funny. I’m not mad for FF reasons for Jordan Howard. I’ve been doing this for a long time, and I thought I’d see it all…all the stupidity for a lifetime – but this one may take the cake.

If they had some Howard-Breida issue…they should’ve drafted or signed something better along the way. Myles Gaskin is not a real plan. It kills this offense and depresses the passing game…no defense cares if they run Myles Gaskin at them. Myles Gaskins would be a backup in the XFL…yet, he’s the Dolphins new ace. It’s truly unbelievable.

I imagine Howard-Breida will have their day, but I won’t be around to see it – I’m bailing out of everything Miami that I can. Flores gave us a serious clue to his mindset, and I want ‘out’.

 -- Ryan Fitzpatrick (20-31 for 191 yards, 0 TDs/3 INTs) had no answer for the Patriots’ defense. Fitz did his typical flailing away with a steady diet of chuck-it-and-hope throws…but the Pats coverage was too good this day, and the Dolphins receivers are not ready to handle these situations.

Tua Tagovailoa is going to be starting sooner-rather-than-later if Miami doesn’t beat Buffalo Week 2.

 -- I did notice that a few series in, Fitzpatrick started gunning it to Preston Williams (2-41-0/7) looking for anything he could come up with…just Stephon Gillmore wouldn’t let him breathe.

The good news for PW:

There were four instances where Williams lost stats…when he did beat Gillmore two times, Gillmore P.I.’d him. Two catches for 30-40 yards lost to penalty-gain. Twice Williams slipped trying to cut into a route – one Fitz threw it, but PW was down on the ground and it was an easy pick. The second was late in the game, and Williams was wide open on a short crosser that would have been a simple catch and run 10-15+ yard gain but he slipped on the cut and Fitz had to pull the pass down and scramble.

Williams had 7 official targets, to lead the team, but it was really 9 with the P.I.s. He had two catches for 40 yards but could’ve been 5-6 catches for 75-100 yards with better luck. Williams got a good treatment from Fitz.

The bad news for PW:

If Belichick knows Preston deserves Stephon Gillmore coverage, then the schedule ahead is going to be brutal.

Week 2 = Tre’Davious White

Week 3 = C.J. Henderson

Week 4 = Seattle/Quinton Dunbar

Week 5 = Richard Sherman may be back, but that may not matter. This is a good matchup regardless.

Week 6 = Callahan/Bouye…DEN

Week 7 = Hayward/Harris…LAC

Week 8 = Jalen Ramsey

And then one of these weeks Tua will arrive, and who knows how that will go…I’m worried it won’t go great.

We just need QBs blindly flinging to Williams and hope the volume of targets makes up for all the other hurdles the next few weeks.

 -- Cam Newton (15-19 for 155 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 15-75-2) is going to run his way to a new contract in the NFL…he’s not going to pass his way to it.

The Bills’ lead back is Josh Allen.

The Patriots’ lead back is Cam Newton…which hurts everything else on NE involved for fantasy, and really hurts Edelman-Harry.

 -- I’ve been ‘out’ on N’Keal Harry (5-39-0/6) for weeks, since it’s been evident Cam would start…just a bad pairing. Harry had OK numbers here, but it’s likely a harbinger of what his season will look like game-by-game.

The more I watch Harry, the more worried I think I see too much DeVante Parker…i.e. a talented, but S-A-W-F-T wide receiver. Better in practice and shorts/pads than in real action.

I’m all the way out on Harry for redraft right now.

 -- When did rookie UDFA RB J.J. Taylor (4-28-0, 1-4-0/1) slip in this game and take 4 carries and see a target? The guy wasn’t even on the team a week ago.

Taylor is a Sproles/Ekeler ‘fun sized’ back (5’5”) who tries hard but doesn’t have the juice Sproles or Ekeler came in with, but he does give it all he’s got and looked like he belonged in his few carries. Nothing for FF short or long term, but he might hang around the league a while as a try hard journeyman.

 -- 2nd-year DE Chase Winovich (6 tackles, 1 TFL) led the D-Line in snaps (68%) and had a nice game. He’s going to be the Pats next great pass rusher who can also play the run/pass. A future Pro Bowler ahead. Going to be really good for IDP as well.

 -- We know the Patriots-DST is good, but was it more the Miami offense that made them shine this game? I’m thinking Belichick has a young defense emerging in his shaped image…and they may lead his team back to an AFC East title.

But what about the new-look Miami-DST? Cam had a nice day but everything else got bottled up OK…was it because Cam isn’t a great passer or Miami has a shutdown pass defense? This was not a real test, nor will next week v. BUF be. We won’t know how good or bad the new Miami pass D is until Weeks 3-4 with JAX and SEA.

The Miami-DST schedule looks promising after Week 4…if they’re any good. We have to wait and see.

Snap Counts of Interest:

(not a typo on this first set)

56 = Dam Byrd

51 = Harry

37 = Edelman

63 = Izzo

10 = Asiasi

19 = Burkhead

19 = White

19 = Michel

09 = J.J. Taylor

39 = Gaskin

14 = Breida

09 = Howard

04 = Laird

R.C. Fischer

FFM

16 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 1 Game Analysis: Bills 27, Jets 17

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The Bills got out to a 21-0 lead in the 2nd-quarter and then meandered around the rest of the game and drifted to a 10-point win. The difference in play was greater than a 10-point win.

The Bills decided to game plan Josh Allen as Lamar Jackson in this game…a purposeful runner. Actually, I don’t know that Lamar is running the ball with as much purpose as Allen. It was effective enough, despite two Allen fumbles running the ball, to put the Jets to sleep. The Jets have no offense. Sam Darnold is straight up bust, and the Bills were never worrying at any point in this game.

I thought this was going to be a dull rewatch, but there were several things I had my eyes opened to for fantasy. We’ll see if you agree.

The Bills face at MIA, LAR, at LV, at TEN, KC the next five weeks – not an easy schedule considering the Miami game this week is at Miami in heat/humidity, a tough place to play on the road. The Bills might be in some trouble the next few weeks. Everything seems rosy now, but this Bills team and DST might be entering some not-great matchups the next few weeks. Don’t get too settled with the Bills DST right now, especially after Week 2.

The Jets, God love them…they played hard to the end. Especially on defense. Credit Gregg Williams – he might be the most annoying person in the NFL and its best defensive coach of any unit with mediocre talent. Williams is a minor miracle worker stuck with a disastrous offense keeping a lid on his defensive potential. Don’t take the Jets, because of their defense, like last season, lightly. They’re not winning the division or anything but be careful laying a lot of points to them on a pick/bet.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let’s talk about the Jets non-Le’Veon backfield outlook ahead…

Frank Gore (6-24-0) will be ‘the guy’, no doubt. The Jets are trying to win, and they can by ball control (minimizing Darnold) and letting the defense make plays. The Jets would like Gore to run the ball 20+ times this week and try to stay close/win late vs. SF. A tall order…but that’s the hope.

When the Jets cannot hang with SF, and the game gets out of hand…we might get my boy Josh Adams’s (2-8-1, 2-14-0/2) last-best chance to show the NFL what he did as a rookie. If the game gets too big a deficit for the Jets, then Adams will get resting-Gore carries. Adams might be a minor shock in limited time against a 2nd-unit/prevent group for the 49ers. At least, it looks that way in my mind.

I have to say, Rewatching this game, Adams still has ‘it’. There is hope here. But I know, in reality, he’ll never get the chance. But if Gore gets dinged up…

Adams was sent back to the practice squad yesterday -- but remember that’s a new procedural thing during COVID teams can do right before the game and during the week. Two players can be active from the PS before game-time Sunday…and Adams was, and got to play. He can be raised back up Sunday and be the Jets’ #2 RB.

…or, he doesn’t, because Adam Gase is a lunatic and Kalen Ballage is his guy. Stop and think, though – Ballage has been available for weeks. The Jets didn’t do anything about it. Now, in a crisis, they added him because they need ANYBODY for depth right now. This week, Gore will be ‘the guy’ and Adams will sprinkle in and try to show magic. Ballage may never see the field. He isn’t a Jet already because he failed a physical, so is he magically healthy/in shape now?

If I were made an NFL GM today, one of my first acts would be to claim Adams off the Jets practice squad.

 -- What to do with Le’Veon Bell (6-14-0, 2-32-0/2)?

Let me say this: I’m a buyer. I’ll take your Le’Veon giveaway stock. I’m a buyer for pennies on the dollar. Why?  Two reasons:

1) Le’Veon really looked good this game. The beat writer who tried to destroy him and elevate magic unicorn rookie Lamical Perine a few weeks ago, is, as always with beat writers, an idiot. Bell looked as nimble as I’ve seen him…kinda like David Johnson Thursday night (but not as good as DJ).

It’s a shame Bell got hurt here, because he was in a place to be an RB1 in PPR on this dreadful team. He would have had 4-8 catches and near 100 total yards or more had he been healthy all game. If you have Bell, you probably think it’s not that big a deal you lost him…no, you lost a serious RB1 PPR hope from your grasp. This stings…even if you don’t realize it. Lost (nice) opportunity.

2) So, Le’Veon will return in Week 5. What would you say the Jets’ record will be then? 0-5? 1-4? Either of those means it’s time to clean house. Le’Veon will be kept on I.R. until he’s 100%...and likely never play another snap for the Jets. It’s the perfect time to trade Bell…while he’s not on the field with no risk of getting hurt and blowing his value.

100% healthy, looking good/great Le’Veon Bell could be the starting RB for…the Pittsburgh Steelers? The Washington Redskins (if they are hanging in)? The Saints if Kamara’s back gives out? Seattle…because, why not?

Le’Veon with the Jets works for FF. Le’Veon to greener pastures is even better for FF. Don’t give up on him. If you can acquire for nothing and stick him on I.R. right now – do it before people realize the timing of Bell being traded away, which will jack his value on the rumors and the reality.

 -- What about the Bills backfield/run game?

I love the Bills’ lead back. He’s great…he’s going to be great for fantasy all season. A top 10 scorer at his position. People can keep trying to deny him his scoring prowess but he’s a top guy.

No, I’m not talking about Devin Singletary (9-30-0, 5-23-0/7). Who likes him anyway? I mean, Bills lead back, Josh Allen (14-57-1, 33-46 for 312 yards, 2 TD/0 INT).

Carries in this game…

14 = Allen

09 = Singletary

09 = Moss

And this wasn’t all Allen dropping back and deciding to scramble. I’m not fighting this anymore. He’s not going to pass for big numbers most weeks, but he runs on purpose and not on purpose about 10 times a game and is effective at it. He’ll score 7-10 rushing TDs this season (10 rush TDs is equal to 15 pass TDs in 4pts…plus he’ll throw for 20 or so TD passes on top of it). He’s a legit top 5-8 QB in 4pts per pass TD scoring. I’m not going to talk about his accuracy again because it’s his running that matters.

When Allen isn’t running the ball, the Bills used Singletary as the lead/starter and main PPR back. Magical unicorn rookie RB Zack Moss (9-11-0, 3-16-1/4) looked exactly like I said/scouted – he’s James Conner.  A James Conner back is one who thinks he’s faster and more elusive than he is, and tries really hard, and people love that…and then at the end of the day you have ‘meh’ results. The preseason beat writers sold you a bag of beads here too. Moss is nowhere near as good as Singletary. It was ridiculous to suggest otherwise, but that’s what you get with untrained, unstudied beat writers who are more ‘casual fans’ than they are real studied analysts.

Moss graced us with a stellar 1.2 yards per carry in his debut but did catch a TD on a broken/scramble play and he was open in the end zone.

Moss is the ‘Gore role’…30%+ of the snaps, some goal line work. Handy. Useful. Not hugely FF impactful. But he will suck some touches away from Singletary, but outside of like 6-7 RBs in the league…all RBs are splitting with someone to some degree. The Singletary FF-problem is Josh Allen’s running, especially near the goal line. Singletary will have more RB2-3 games than RB1-2 affairs…but when the going gets tough, not playing the hapless Jets – Singletary will be leaned on by Sean McDermott…not Moss.

 -- Because Sam Darnold (21-35 for 215 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is an abomination, you can’t count on anything from the Jets’ WRs outside of Jamison Crowder (7-115-1/13) and you have to be wary of him too.

Your Breshad Perriman or Denzel Mims stock is near useless until a QB change comes, and that change will not happen on purpose until 2022.

 -- The Jets-DST was impressive to me again. I saw ‘it’ with them last year, but they kept taking on mass injuries and their offense does not help them. But there is a reason the Jets had the best record in the AFC East the 2nd-half of 2019 season. Gregg Williams is doing ‘Coach of the Year’ things as a D-C again…he’s been a miracle worker through a ton of injuries for two seasons now. Don’t be surprised if they give the 49ers a threat this week, and Jonathan Taylor is not in for a good matchup Week 3 v NYJ.

Two IDP things from the Jets…

1) Marcus Maye (10 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 PDs) is playing the Jamal Adams role as good/better than Adams. He is THEE hottest pickup in IDP. I didn’t fully realize it until I rewatched here.

2) Bless Austin (8 tackles, 1 PD) is a man playing corner…like a linebacker playing corner. He’s a legit DB, especially CB, pickup and see if he pays off with consistent numbers.

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Snap Counts of Interest:

51 = Singletary

39 = Moss

32 = Le’Veon

14 = Gore

13 = Josh Adams