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: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 14 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Saints 38, Packers 3

I’m going to get right into this analysis, clinical-like…because I watched all the plays in detail here from the perspective of – did this really just happen? How did the Saints crush the Packers? Is Aaron Rodgers mentally done with the Packers, and thus this whole thing is about to fall apart…for NFL purposes, and for Fantasy purposes? Is Jameis Winston for real?

I’m not going to chronicle every play and lament certain details in the intro. I’m going to discuss things off the top ‘in general’, and you’ll have to choose to believe me or not because I can’t take hours to write this going through every moment/drive/play to give my evidence. So, with that…as your football physician, here’s what I walk away from this game tape thinking…

1) I’m not going to say the Packers were for sure the better team or that the Saints got totally lucky, but I will say everything that could go right for the Saints did fall in their lap…while most everything the Packers did blew up in their face. And as the bad luck unfolded, and the Saints kept extending their lead and their luck, which led to the Saints becoming more energized and the Packers getting more flustered/desperate as it went…and then they threw in the towel on the unlucky day.

If there were ever a perfect storm game…it was this one. And the Saints are better than I thought (especially on defense) and the Packers are worse than I thought (especially on the O-Line)…but the gap between them is not 35 points…and Rodgers 0 TDs/2 INTs and Winston 5 TDs/0 INTs is not the new reality.

There was so much good fortune involved in this game that I assume God bet the Saints -30.0 just to play a joke on the world at large. I’ll get into detail on some of what I mean by ‘luck’ or ‘good fortune’ in some of the player detail, but in general…the Saints converted some 3rd & longs that were not normal, while the Packers would have drives blown up by shaky penalty calls, or the right guy blitzing to the right space, almost as if they knew where Rodgers was going on a rollout every time. There were some horrific penalties called and other non-calls that was some of the worst officiating that happened Week 1 or will this entire season…and every key bad call went against Green Bay/for the Saints at the perfect time and every non-call went against the Packers/saved the Saints at the perfect time.

I’ve never seen a game so ‘willed’ by fate to make sure one team blew out another. The Saints played a good game, but they were gifted so many things it just energized them and demoralized the Packers.

2) The Packers have issues because their O-Line has been hit. They lost one of the best Centers in the game (Corey Linsley) to LAC in free agency – and is a main reason why Rodgers will bail in 2022 if he can. One of the worst things any GM did all offseason was let the key Center go who protected the league’s best QB to an MVP season in 2020. Also, the long time ace left tackle, David Bakhtiari is on PUP for 6 games. Arguably the two best OLs on the team from 2020 are gone and rookies are elevated, and other guys moved positions to cover for things.

When you have O-Line issues…your QB suddenly looks bad. On the other side of the field -- the Saints O-Line was spectacular, and thus Winston had a highly efficient day.

3) The Saints pass coverage was stunning in this game. Less time to throw for Rodgers mixed with very good coverage left Rodgers looking flustered and inefficient. If you wrote the opposite of that last statement, you get the Saints offense in this game…more time to throw for Winston mixed with so-so GB coverage left Winston looking comfortable and efficient.

4) The Packers offense is not as good as the 2020 version because of the O-Line issues, but they play the perfect team Week 2 to have their day – the Detroit Lions have no pass rush and have no coverage. I assume my best bet of the century is going to be Packers -10.5 over the Lions. It’s the wrong time for Detroit to go to Green Bay…the wrong time, the wrong team.

If the Lions give Rodgers fits, then this season is over. I think the Packers will drop 40+ on Detroit and crush them.

5) The Saints are not this good, but they’re better on defense than I ever imagined. They are now a run game and defense team, with Winston a ticking time bomb that will blow at the wrong times when he’s under pressure. I would say Carolina at home +3.5 over New Orleans, in a reversal of NO fortune week, is the other bet of the century, but Sam Darnold is awful…so, I’ll just ‘pick’ Carolina not bet it.

6) Watching all the little details fall one way to one team causing a rout that I thought would happen the other way (GB crushing NO), and seeing the underdogs go 9-5-1 or 10-6 ATS this week – I’m just going to ‘pick’ all the underdogs every week unless there is a very special circumstance. I’m tweaking my game projection models to favor taking the underdogs every week and assuming it will all work out like it has the past couple of years.

They could play this GB-NO game a hundred times and GB might win/cover 60-70 of them, but there would only be one of the 100…one of a million where the Saints win by 35. NFL games are so fickle on bad calls, no calls, ball bouncing the right way, guessing right or wrong on a blitz to change a drive, a dropped pass, etc. Trying to spend hours debating ‘the better team’ going into a week is fun but a waste of handicapping time – I mean, look at how the MNF game ended with BAL-LV. The game was decided by idiotic coaching, inches short of things on further review, guessing right on a play call/guessing wrong on a play call. I thought LV would cover, but they should’ve lost that game 10 times over…and also they should’ve won that game by more than they did, all at the same time.

NFL game outcomes are such random events we try to build complicated algorithms on to predict – but it might be better to just assume crazy will happen more times than not, and I might as well take the points since that seems to be the best bet over time.

Now, let’s talk about something a bit more predictable…player performances.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Is Aaron Rodgers (15-289 for 133 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) dead? Did he die here? Is he quitting on the Packers?

From the live watch, trying to process the disaster I was watching…I thought all those things going into it. I wondered about them. I started creating narratives in my head about them. But then I watched this game tape and realized that’s my Fantasy ‘sky is falling’ mindset trying to kick in. It’s nowhere near that.

There is a problem with the Packers ability to protect Rodgers. He is not going to have an MVP season behind this O-Line. When he gets David Bakhtiari back in Week 7 (hopefully) then things will turn. Until then, you are getting ‘good+’ Aaron Rodgers not ‘elite’ Aaron Rodgers.

However, he has Detroit Week 2…which takes good+ to elite easily.

Week 3, Rodgers faces the vacant 49ers secondary…that’s hope he can overcome their front seven by blistering their back 4.

Week 4…trouble vs. PIT, but you can’t really sit him.

Week 5…at CIN is fine. So is Week 6 at CHI.

If you get Bakhtiari back Week 7…then hosting WSH is bad but not as bad. Week 8 at ARI is not good. Week’s 7-8 are him facing the two best defenses in football. Week 9 is not easy at KC. Week 12 hosting the Rams is maybe the 3rd best defense in the NFL. Week 11 at MIN is a place you hate playing with the crowd noise.

From Week 12-17…all outdoor, colder weather worries to suppress the offense, possibly.

What I would do if I owned Aaron Rodgers…I’d get that good Weeks 2-3 or 2-6, and then look at moving sideways into a top QB in a better situation. That schedule from Week 5 or Week 7 on…the O-Line issues…I’d rather roll with Justin Herbert (among others) for that stretch, on paper.

As an aside…Jordan Love (5-7 for 68 yards,. 0 TDs/0 INTs) came into the game in the 4th-quarter when this was out of hand. There’s nothing to read into here because it was backups v. backups in unnatural circumstances. But note that Jordan Love will be the Packers QB in 2022, if not midseason after a Rodgers trade.

Oh, and Davante Adams (5-56-0/7) is fine…it’s just the bad game vibe , the great NO coverage, the limited time of possession, the 1st-team pulled for the 4th-quarter. Everything that could have gone wrong did. I suspect ‘Hulk Smash’ Week 2 for Davante v. DET’s secondary.

Oh, and the Rodgers will help his old friend Randall Cobb (1-32-0/1) narrative…hardly. Hard to help him if he can’t get open anymore. The bad O-Line PLUS the better WRs non-Davante are on the bench. Lazard should be starting over MVS and Amari Rodgers over Cobb. But this is what Aaron wants…and we’ll pay an FF price for it.

-- You want something Green Bay to worry about…OK, you got it: I told you all preseason A.J. Dillon (4-19-0, 1-7-0/1) was cause for concern for how much it cost to redraft Aaron Jones (5-9-0, 2-13-0/2)…and now it’s real.

You may think, well this game was a mess so they probably just shut things down and changed plans and put AJD into the game as it got away. No, my friend…that wasn’t it. In the same manner in which I was shocked to see Tony Pollard in the game prominently for whole series at a time over Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas’s Week 1…it was even more so shocking how much Dillon was in this game for whole series, and in key spots…and even in passing situations where the Pack was down and having to throw, and there was Dillon.

Snap share comparison (before starters pulled): 64% Jones, 36% Dillon

Touch count share for the game: 7 Jones, 5 Dillon

I’m not saying Aaron Jones is a bust…but he’s very much at risk of being just a nice RB2 – with the pressure that if Dillon gets hot, as we know he can, it could be more of a 50/50 situation ahead.

This was Week 1…and this was the plan (some kind of Jones-Dillon rotation) before things fell apart, and while things were falling apart. I was shocked watching it back.

-- Was this a reformed Jameis Winston (14-20 for 148 yards, 5 TDs/0 INT, 6-37-0)?

No.

It was a lucky Winston…which he’s getting so lucky that I wonder if we should all just ride with the blessings or soul-selling path he is on. Winston barely had to do anything in this game. He couldn’t have had but 3-4 times where he had to sit in the pocket and be a real QB…and faltered most times he had to.

Winston was flushed from the pocket several times and somehow avoided all defenders and turned 3rd & longs into 10-15+ yard runs with nothing but green grass to run to. He also threw a terrible pick in the red zone at one point, but then the biggest horse $#!& penalty for roughing the passer was called…so erase the turnover, put them closer to the end zone, and he then threw a lucky pass for another TD…that should’ve never happened AND been a pick…AND it may have turned the game back to some GB hope to get back ion. Instead, it extinguished the Pack...it was that kind of day.

I don’t see Winston doing anything he hasn’t done before…just played it safe behind a heavy run game…14 completed passes vs. 39 runs. And most of the completed passes were easy pitch & catch short stuff. It was a perfect storm for Winston…a perfect game plan in the perfect situation with everything going right that could go right.

-- Who was Winston throwing to on his 14 completed passes?

Not Marquez Callaway (1-14-0/2)…as I feared/warned. Callaway caught the very first pass of the game, and no more the rest of the way. Jaire Alexander ate him up/Winston is the wrong QB for Callaway’s skillset.

Juwan Johnson (3-21-2/3) looked good as a big/tall target option. Johnson still looks choppy as a tight end…too herkie jerky on routes and catching the ball, but I could be nitpicking too much. He made a nice leaping catch/nice radius grab for a TD for JW here and secured an easy one later. I shouldn’t be too against him, but I fear he’s the wrong guy to work with Winston consistently…that Adam Trautman (3-18-0/6) will be a better worker for Winston’s style…but JJ is good for red zone work for sure.

Deonte Harris (2-72-1/2) is money if they get him the ball, but there was no need to run his special bubbles and jet sweeps with the Saints just running roughshod over the Packers. When they called on Harris…he was open and making grabs. He’ll see more targets when the game script is more normal.

-- Tony Jones (11-50-0, 1-3-0/1) ran the same plan as Latavius Murray used to. He got good touches here because they ran the ball so much. He’ll be 6-12 touches per game as the game dictates…not really that FF-worthy with AK alive and dominating touches.

-- Let’s talk about three defensive things from this game…

1) The Saints coverage in this game was extraordinary…even when Marshon Lattimore was out for some snaps with a hand injury. This is a better-than-I-expected defense who took it to a weakened O-Line, lazy/presumptive Packers offense.

Facing Darnold, Mac Jones, D Jones, Heinicke the next four weeks is potential DST gold.

2) One of the reasons the Saints secondary was so ‘wow’ – rookie CB Paulson Adebo (3 tackles, 1 INT) played like a shutdown corner…or at least not anything like a rookie. What a draft pick by New Orleans. Adebo looked beyond his years. He was a higher rated CB prospect for us pre-Draft, but I didn’t think he’d be this good this fast.

Lattimore-Roby-Adebo takes the Saints from suspect in the secondary to one of the best secondaries in the NFL, potentially. All aboard the Saints-DST hype train.

3) Krys Barnes (8 tackles) just gets tackles. I keep saying it like every week since he debuted last season, but the guy just gets numbers. He is a threat to lead the league in tackles this season.

Snap Counts of Interest:

51 = Trautman

12 = Juwan Johnson

52 = Callaway

27 = Deonte Harris

18 = Lil’Jordan Humphrey

23 = Kaden Elliss

23 = Zack Baun

40 = Davante

39 = Lazard

36 = MVS

15 = Cobb

28 = A Jones

16 = AJ Dillon

45 = Kamara

22 = Tony Jones

: R.C. Fischer; Total Football Advisor; 13 September 2021

Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...

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: Ross Jacobs; FFM; 13 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Preseason Wk1 Game Analysis: Steelers 24, Eagles 16

Jalen Hurts played a couple of series against Mason Rudolph, mostly running with 1st-team offensive players -- and it was all solid/nothing special from the starters. Pretty vanilla. Then the backup QBs and offense/defense started filtering in and the game devolved into a painful watch with a few things flashing, or trying to, however. We’ll discuss all of it here from my game notes.

Before that, I just want to say – I love the preseason. I love watching/scouting the young players to try and gain clues to confirm, or adjust, my pre-Draft scouting and analytics on these players. What I also love, but mostly hate, about the preseason – we get the local hometown feed, the local broadcasters/analysts covering the game. And let me tell you…whatever your religious faith/persuasion is, you only wish you loved/worshipped and believed in your deity as much as local TV analysts love the football team they are covering. The coverage, the fawning is so painful, so over-the-top that I toggle between absolutely hating it and simultaneously loving it at the same time – it’s so breathtakingly cult-like, I laugh at it and admire their total brainwashed devotion to it.

In this game, I got the Eagles feed…and let me just say, Nick Sirianni must be Vince Lombardi and Bill Walsh all wrapped into one with a coating of Bill Belichick. I mean, that’s all I can glean from the illustrious Philly commentators…just how amazingly smart and crafty Sirianni is.

In about 8-16 weeks, they will be crucifying him as the worst coach since Rich Kotite.

…they should be taking pitchforks and torches to Howie Roseman’s house over this when Sirianni fails miserably, but it won’t matter. The owner will keep his buddy around no matter what happens.

On to the actual game…

Dynasty/Fantasy Player Notes…

-- I have to start with my Najee Harris (2-10-0, 1-9-0/2) notes because I’m the leader of/the only person in the resistance of Najee as an elite, franchise RB. Again, I know he’ll get 20+ touches a game and will thus be an ace for Fantasy Football. I’m just saying – this is not a top talent that I see. Not yet anyways.

Najee didn’t play as much here as the HOF game. He took a couple touches and did what he does best – run between the tackles and tacks on 2+ yards to runs because he’s tough to tackle. I would have been impressed with his tough running had not every single Steelers RB that came in after him didn’t do the same – big open holes to run through and they all looked good/the Eagles run defense was so weak that even the homer analysts were harping on it.

If Najee has some space, and gets that big body going…he’ll pick up decent chunks of yards. But you could say that about most every running back in this game or in this league. Jordan Howard (1-3-0) started in this game for Philly, and you can’t tell the difference between the two in running style (except JoHo has better vision/instincts) – but one will have an offense built for him (attempted) and the other may not make the team.

If Najee were on the Browns or Broncos, etc., if he were with the top O-Lines…then I could see a big 2021 from Najee, but the Steelers have a very shaky O-Line outlook, a complete overhaul on the O-Line from last year/the last 5+ years – so it may be a mild disaster to try and get the running game going with a plodder RBV and no blocking. A bad O-Line is the great neutralizer of all things…

-- Jalen Hurts (3-7 for 54 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs, 1-4-0) looked fine as the starter. He escapes/evades pressure like rare few QBs of the past several years can. Hurts looks like if Deshaun Watson had spent all his Massage Envy hours deadlifting huge weights instead…Hurts is so muscular/strong and he just glides out of attempted sacker’s reach with ease and extends play and makes nice throws.

Hurts hit on passes of 7, 34, and 13 yards with nice touch and placement. His incompletions were not as pretty. Hurts doesn’t throw blindly into danger, but he’s not the greatest-looking pocket passer either…he looks mildly uncomfortable in the pocket, whereas he looks near majestic moving out of the pocket. He’s a ‘C-‘ pocket passer, and an ‘A’ passer/runner weapon when he is moving around from danger or just on purpose.

The people who want to dismiss Hurts will see his incompletions and deem him as un-Brady-like and think he sucks. What people should see promise in is his ability to play on the move…he’s one of the best in the league at it.

I do fear that Nick Sirianni is too stupid to realize it and wants him to be a pocket passer more, but I also think that what Hurts does is mostly off script so while the Eagles swirl down the drain, Hurts might pile on the FF output as everything collapses.

-- Hurts played two series, then Joe Flacco (10-17 for 178 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) came in…and threw a basic pass to Quez Watkins (1-79-1/2), who then just took the ball in stride and just ran past Steelers defenders who had the angles on him, but Quez is so fast that he just flew by them.

Watkins is going to be the starter over Jalen Reagor (2-20-0/3) at this point – another Howie Roseman special…wasting a 1st-round pick on Reagor.

Roseman may force his patsy head coach to start DeVonta-Reagor, but it’s obvious that it should be DeVonta-Quez with Reagor in and out of the game as a #3 WR. The Eagles will run a lot of two TE sets, with two WRs, so Quez working more than Reagor as the #2 WR is only a matter of time.

Actually, it may already be – Watkins was in early and scored his TD and went out of the game to rest/enjoy the rest of the contest. Reagor was playing with the schmoes into the 2nd-half. Reagor is dying off. Quez is ascending…and is a great weapon for Hurts doing improvising things.

-- The Philly TE report is a log jam…

Zach Ertz (2-20-0/3) is starting like normal, along with Dallas Goedert (1-34-0/1). I expected Ertz to be gone already…and the Eagles expected Ertz to be gone already. The Eagles can pick up $5M in cap space if they move Ertz/dump him/cut him…which I still believe they will, but the rest of the league sees him being released before the season start, so they aren’t trying hard to trade for him. The compensatory draft pick after being signed from his release might be the best Philly can do.

Tyree Jackson (2-32-0/5) made his debut as a tight end, and he looked very natural…the former QB turned TE. But with Ertz-Goedert, there’s limited chance for Jackson to see meaningful time…plus, Richard Rodgers (2-18-0/4) was brought back by Philly, and he’s a very solid TE after some body transformation the past 2 years (slimmed and leaned down and got faster/better in the passing game).

Something has to give with the Eagles TE situation. I have several thoughts on these Philly tight ends after watching this contest, and it’s some pretty important/radical stuff for Dynasty/Fantasy – so we’ll get into that with the ‘Subscriber Extra’ notes on this game…available in the Draft Guide and/or Dynasty/Best Ball area within 24 hours or so after these game notes post.

-- As far as the Steelers throwing the ball…

Mason Rudolph (8-9 for 77 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) looked as good as I’ve seen him look, and that’s still not great. He started and played a few series with mostly starters.

The great Dwayne Haskins (16-22 for 161 yards, 1 TDs/0 INT) took over from there and did his usual – look good one simple throw and then inexplicable throw the next toss, and back-and-forth he goes. Haskins cannot read defenses or make tight window throws regularly…he throws into traffic/trouble with regularity. He’s never going to make it…no matter how much cheerleading the media does for him.

-- The Steelers QBs were very efficient in this game, and it may have spoken to the fact that the Eagles defense looked individually talented but poorly-coached schematically. The Eagles sloppy play did allow for 29 completions at a 78.3% clip, so we did get to see the younger Steelers WRs working. And I gotta say, the Steelers have a lot of good/decent young/no-name WRs that they will mostly have to cut…but it does allow for a James Washington trade any day now.

I guarantee, Washington is getting moved…because the Steelers have the depth at WR to do it.

Rookie Rico Bussey (4-45-0/4) caught my eye the most out of the low level WR group. He’s not a superstar, but he’s very solid and shows nice athleticism. With upside The Steelers have something here to develop.

Anthony Johnson (2-38-1/2) was terrific at the University of Buffalo (with his QB Tyree Jackson), and has bounced around the league a bit as a UDFA, but he can play. He has great hands/concentration for catches with a limited athleticism but solid size. He’s a nice NFL #4-5 WR who could start in a pinch and be OK.

Cody White (5-39-0/7) is a solid WR prospect with size as well. And he has caught my attention for two weeks now – he’s promising to be an NFL receiver, but probably as more of a backup not starter/star.

-- Pat Freiermuth (1-6-0/1) got his first catch of the preseason. He looked ‘as expected’. Struggling to block early in his career but has reliable hands and gives good effort. He’ll be OK enough long term.

-- The Steelers kept rotating in RBs who just sliced through the Eagles defense mostly…

Jaylen Samuels (10-45-1, 1-17-0/1) was having his way at times, and it made me mad that he doesn’t get more opportunities in the regular season. But then he caught his lone target of the game, for 17 yards, and it looked great at first…but then I thought it was the end of his Steelers career as the play ended.

Samuels caught a little dump pass, then broke out of a tackle and turned a 3-4 yards play into 17 yards…which is great, but after he broke the tackle and took off downfield (in the clear by 4-5+ yards) he was running and defenders were closing in, but instead of trying to accelerate and blow through somebody with all this space – Samuels instead visibly slowed up and headed out of bounds with no one within 1-2 yards of him.

Najee would be allowed to head out of bounds for preservation, but not a guy who is fighting to make a team like Samuels. The memory of several solid runs by Jaylen are wiped out in my mind by the ‘dive’ he took. He is not fighting hard enough for his NFL existence, and I’ve seen him do that a few times the past few years. Sad.

Pete Guerriero (7-20-0) came in late and looked like the most promising of the low level Steelers backs. Guerriero was a star for Monmouth but got overlooked in the NFL Draft. He ran a 4.49 40-time (Pro Day) in 2020, after a nice college career. He looked like he was fighting for his NFL life…not like lazy Samuels. Guerriero is tough, shifty and gives a good effort. Not a star but competent.

-- The Eagles backfield has bigger names, but no one jumped out as anything better than the Steelers low level RBs…

Jason Huntley (4-15-0, 1-4-0/3) is supposed to be this 2021 camp sensation, and he flipped and flopped around the field like a fish out of water…dropping passes, and turning the wrong way on things. Not impressed.

Kenneth Gainwell (2-14-0, 2-16-0/4) debuted, and he looked OK/competent. But Sanders-Scott-Howard still seems to be ahead of him. Eventually, Gainwell will have a satellite back role. It might be 2022+.

I was surprised to see Kerryon Johnson (2-12-0) come in very late, like a nobody, to get his work. No special treatment for Kerryon here. He looked fine/typical Kerryon…straight ahead runner with limited athleticism. But his spot in the rotation here led me to believe he might not be making this team.

-- The IDP report…

I still can’t take my eyes off of Steelers rookie DE Quincy Roche (2 tackles, 0.5 sacks). He is beating his man and getting near/to the QB almost every pass rush. I want to see it against 1st-team blockers though. He’s always working late/2nd-half in the rotation this preseason. Very promising two weeks in a row now…a near ‘wow’ guy so far for me, but I know he’s not working against the best blocking either yet.

Eagles rookie CB Zech McPherson (4 tackles) is promising, and might be forcing his way into the starting lineup. He’s really sound/good at covering receivers and is a willing tackler. Better than the Steelers supposed starter Cam Sutton (1 tackle) – Sutton was beaten like a drum in this game, by 1st-team WRs and then down into the Bussey-White group for Pittsburgh. If the Steelers do not acquire a C.J. Henderson type CB, they are going to be in huge trouble in the secondary.

The Steelers did acquire Joe Schobert, which is a good thing for Pittsburgh for sure…the Robert Spillane (3 tackles) experiment has ended due to his inability to cover in the passing game. What the Jags are doing, I don’t know – but it seems like they are already dumping/punting on 2021. Which they should…just build for the future.

The Eagles have some bright hopes at ILB themselves. Alex Singleton (7 tackles) returned from COVID and was all over. That guy is going to start for sure, alongside Eric Wilson. Singleton the run stopper and Wilson a jack of all trades. But one of the ‘flash’ players of this game was Eagles rookie LB Patrick Johnson (6 tackles, 1 TFL). Johnson was a nice college OLB/pass rusher type…but he played more interior in this game, and looks like a natural – a 6’2”/240 guy with 4.6+ speed and sub-7.0 three-cone…not great for EDGE but really promising working the inside. He has great instincts and nice acceleration to the ball. He’ll be rising on our next Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings.

: R.C. Fischer; Total Football Advisor; 11 September 2021

A deeper look, on the fly, at Ty'Son Williams from BYU to Baltimore...

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: R.C. FISCHER; FFM; 10 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 1: Bucs 31, Cowboys 29

When the Bucs jumped out to a 7-0 lead, it seemed like this was going to the Buccaneers night by double-digits – defending champs in their home/NFL opener, the crowd on fire, Dallas limping in minus Zack Martin and everyone unsure what to expect from Dak in his return to live game play off shoulder issues and last year’s horribly broken ankle.

From that point on, Dallas outscored Tampa 29-24…but the Cowboys ended up losing the game in the final seconds on a short field goal.

There’s two ‘credits’ to give out here…

‍

1) Credit Tom Brady for saving the day.

The Bucs defense was erratic and ineffective too much of the game. The Bucs had no real run game. It was Brady making some excellent, accurate money throws that kept Tampa Bay in this…and got them the win.

The more I watch Brady, at ages 43 and 44, the more the Brady v. Belichick question continues to make me wonder just how good a coach Belichick would’ve been without Brady. Would Belichick have been ‘average’…and fired after 4-5 seasons in New England and then surfaced elsewhere for another 2-4 year stint before being given the boot again? Would he have just been ‘good’…more wins than losses but not dominant/a legend? We’ll never know…although what we’ve seen of 2020 and 2021 so far, it’s not making me feel like Belichick was ‘the reason’.

It was Bill Belichick’s idea to move on from Tom Brady. It was Belichick who wanted to replace him years earlier for Jimmy Garoppolo. It was Belichick who kept Tom in a quasi-box too often. Those are not signs of ‘a genius’…but let’s see what he does in 2021 with Mac Jones, if he’s such a genius. How can chasing away the league’s most valuable player, of all-time, be overlooked in Belichick’s coaching resume?

2) Credit Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore for smart game planning…yep, I said it.

Dallas was undermanned, under-gunned for this fight…going to the defending champs in a home opener, and yet they almost pulled this off. Dallas was the more energetic team, after they took the first few punches from Tampa and responded with shots of their own – they gained confidence from the 2nd-quarter on and were the aggressor and better team in the second half, but Brady has a pact for his soul…so, of course the Bucs/Brady won last second. Nothing Dallas can do to reverse the supernatural, tried as they might.

McCarthy/Moore put a perfect game plan together to help Dak get his feet under him early. They kept it simple…short and quick. Tampa Bay really never adjusted to it. And then as Dak got more settled in, the Bucs secondary couldn’t really keep up.

Dak looked ‘off’ at times, especially early on, but he rallied -- and really put his foot down to let us all know that he’s one of the 10 best QB talents in the NFL. It was an MVP-like moment…but because they lost, doesn’t feel like it totally.

And also, credit McCarthy/Moore for recognizing Ezekiel Elliott isn’t that special and thus does not need an offense built around him constantly going headfirst into the best run defense in the league. The more I saw Tony Pollard starting drives and getting touches, the more I stood to applaud McCarthy/Moore. It is not easy to move away from a fan-favorite, highly overpaid running back – but McCarthy said (in the offseason) he would split the RB role more this season…and split it, he did.

Given the situation going into this game – this feels like a win that was really a loss for Tampa Bay, and vice-versa a loss that really feels like a win for Dallas.

With months to prepare…with a raucous home field…with the Zack Martin injury – Tampa Bay got out-schemed and out-efforted by Dallas. I don’t see a repeat Super Bowl team with Tampa…I see the wild card team that got hot/lucky late in the season and into the playoffs. But as long as Brady continues to exist…the Bucs have to be the NFC favorites.

Credit to McCarthy, I guess…because I also saw the grittiest Dallas team I’ve seen in a while. It’s not going to be so easy for Washington to cruise to the NFC East title if Dak is upright all season. If I were re-doing my Faux season 2021 simulation again, I would have Dallas as a playoff team for sure.

It was Week 1, so we learned various things about ‘intentions’ of these teams for FF 2021…or, so we think. Let’s get into what we think we saw for Fantasy and discuss whether it is a blip or full future reality.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- Let’s start with analyzing what we thought about the Bucs’ offense going into the season, and then seeing how it lined up with what we saw Week 1…let’s see where we were ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ about preseason assumptions and how they played out this opening game:

RIGHT: Tom Brady (32-50 for 379 yards, 4 TDs/2 INTs) is going to throw the ball a lot…he’s going to chase all the records, seasonal and career.

This wasn’t a unique theory, but really leaning into it set the tone for various projections down the line is going to be wise. Brady looks like he did in 2020…and in 2019. There is no age effect happening to him.

The Dallas defense registered no sacks, no TFLs, and just two QB hits – one of the best pass protection O-Lines in the game means even more juice for Brady 2021.

RIGHT: If Brady was going to put up big numbers, then we believed so too was Antonio Brown (5-121-1/7, 1-6-0) who we’d been pushing as on par/better than Evans-Godwin.

I can’t say this game result altered any opinion that Brown might be the most important Fantasy WR here. Brady came out throwing and Brown was his obvious favorite look. As the game shifted/Dallas made changes, Brady started to use Gronk/Godwin more because it was there for the taking…and he took it. Brown is set for a nice year with heavy pass volume Brady.

When we pushed for Antonio Brown’s sweet undervalue in the early summer, AB was not a top 35-40 WR rank/ADP. He kept climbing in August when more people started to see glimpses of it. Many of you got Brown 8-11th+ round in redrafts throughout the summer. You’re going to be happy with your ROI here.

WRONG: I thought Mike Evans (3-24-0/6) would be the one ‘other’ Tampa WR to have aside from AB for FF 2021. I thought Chris Godwin (9-105-1/14) was overpriced as he would be rendered to WR2-3 status as Brown saw top targets and Evans saw heavy TD action…nothing against Godwin, but that there wouldn’t be enough to go around to support his ADP.

It wasn’t pretty (because Godwin butchered a couple passes and fumbled into the end zone after a catch), but Godwin saw a bunch of targets…especially as the game went on and as more coverage attention was paid to Antonio. I’m not saying this type of stat line is now Godwin’s likely result every week ahead, but as Brady passes heavy there’s room for more to party…and Godwin looks more like a WR1.5-2.0 than WR2-2.5.

I’m not so much ‘wowed’ by a good game from Godwin here as I am consistently surprised by how ‘out of it’ Mike Evans looks…and it’s not new, it was a carryover from 2020. I keep thinking it could change, that Evans will not be ignored in most games…but we have to make the call – Evans is the dud of this trio, it appears, since Brady has come around. If I re-order my TB WR pecking order it would be Brown-Godwin-Evans, not Brown-Evans-Godwin.

RIGHT: The Tampa Bay plan running the ball is a Leonard Fournette (9-32-0, 5-27-0/7) rotation with Ronald Jones (4-14-0)…and it’s going to leave you frustrated owning one or the other for Fantasy.

Fournette won this round because RoJo fumbled in the 1st-half and was benched the rest of the game. Fournette can bobble screens leading to a pick…and Godwin can fumble into the end zone and almost cost them the game – but if Jones fumbles, he’s banished to hell. It happened last year too…RoJo is just an Arians trigger for anger/wrath for some reason.

So, next week everyone will be sky high on Fournette and down on RoJo, but Bruce Arians will then get Jones back going mentally with extra touches…and if RoJo responds, you’ll see Jones as much as Fournette and neither will be anything big or predictable for FF. Arians did that last year, rotated in-and-out and went ‘hot hand’ and punished things that made him mad…but it was mostly unpredictable and unfruitful for Fantasy when they’re both active.

Fournette is in a better spot now…because if Jones fumbles again, then Leonard is in a really great spot for the moment. It could happen to Fournette the following week, that he fumbles and gets the sour treatment. I wouldn’t want either back for FF 2021.

WRONG (so far): I knew Fournette-Jones would be an every-other-series split rotation thing, but I was counting on Gio Bernard (2-12-0/3) being in for every 3rd-down and in the hurry up offense scenarios…and, thus, being PPR viable. That didn’t happen here.

The game plan started out with Gio as the 3rd-down guy, but then Tampa was scoring so fast early on there was no need for 3rd-down dump passes…nor were there many 3rd-downs in general in the 1st-half. I could live with that being the cause of the lack of touches, but then when 3rd-downs started to happen more for TB in the 2nd-half, it was Fournette left out there and Gio a total ghost. I was shocked. Was Gio hurt from ankle sprain still? Nope. On the final drive, in the hurry up, Gio was on the field doing the James White thing…but it was too little, too late.

I could say it’s just one week -- but it was an important week. It shows intention. The Bucs O-C did not get Gio out there every time he could/should have. Is it just this one week outlier? Is this just going to be so spotty and unpredictable on when the game flow goes to needing Gio that he’s not much of anything but a plausible guy to have during the BYE weeks/tight RB options out there?

I’m heavily vested in Gio from redrafts…cheaply vested, but heavily (by count) vested in having Gio on my FF teams in PPR (and some half-PPR) as a for-depth option I hoped broke out into that sneaky James White RB1.5 in PPR dude who cost me little to acquire. Now, I’m wondering if I’m going to ditch him Tuesday in the waiver wire chase.

I’m going to more hold on than not, I think…I don’t want to overreact to one week -- but this just got onto seriously shaky ground.

Most of what Tampa showed in preseason glimpses overall came true here this game…except Gio was ghosted by the coaching staff, where he was seeing a bunch of passes with Brady in the preseason games with the 1st-team – and I’m shocked by it not carrying over here. Gio is not the type of guy that would get this type of ignored/disrespected treatment you’d think. He is the best 3rd-down back they have…and he wasn’t being treated as such here. However, in the critical final drive…Gio was out there the whole time and made a great diving catch for a 1st-down and looked just like the James White we hoped for the whole drive. We saw a glimpse of it, but it’s on shaky ground right now with me.

NEITHER RIGHT/WRONG: Rob Gronkowski (8-90-2/8) had a big game. I’m not shocked. We projected him top 7-8 for the week because of the Cowboys linebackers in coverage. I didn’t think he’d be the #1 TE of the week, so that’s wrong…but we thought this was a good spot, and that was right.

Gronk was quietly going along at first, but then Brady started to expose what was ripe for the picking as Dallas showed their hand…and Brady picked it, and Gronk delivered. I didn’t think Gronk looked special…he was just good/comfortable with Brady throwing to him in the right spots on the money.

Gronk will be a TE1 in non-PPR this year…and likely a top TE1 in PPG rankings for much of the 1st-half of the season because of this hot start boosting him. If Gronk catches 2 passes for 13 yards and no TDs next week, it wouldn’t shock me. I didn’t see Gronk as like this major piece/high scorer for the season…it was just the right player against the right opponent/matchup. But Gronk has mostly good matchups in the 1st-half of the season and then it turns much more difficult as the season wears on.

-- What about the Cowboys in this game?

WRONG: I was more inclined to sit it out on Dak Prescott (42-58 for 403 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) in redrafts. I like him as a talent, but why invest heavily into him with his preseason shoulder issue and offseason ankle rehab. You could’ve taken Tom Brady later in a redraft later, bypassing earlier Dak. I’m not disappointed by the decision to bypass Dak…but he showed that he’ll fight through just about anything. So, my reason to pause doesn’t look like an ‘I told you so moment’. It was a worry that didn’t necessarily need to be worried about.

But I still wouldn’t chase Dak or lament missing out – because contrary to Cris Collinsworth telling us everything was fine with Dak 2-3 throws in, anyone with eyes could see that Dak was not planting and firing like his old self for about the first half of football here. Dak was floating passes that wobbled down the field. He was accurate and making good decisions, for the most part, but had no real drive or zip on his throws.

Once Dak got blasted by a Bucs D-Lineman somewhere early 3rd-quarter (if I recall, possibly late 2nd-Q), it was like it shook the rust off and/or cobwebs out and Dak suddenly had more energy, more zip on his passes. It’s like he needed to get hit and know that he was OK, and then glimpses of the old Dak started to appear.

Still, there were a lot of ‘gingerly’ throws, soft tosses that concerned me…but 10 days off until Week 2, extra rest/healing -- Dak may be 110% for Week 2 and beyond. Some of Dak’s throws to the middle were inexplicably bad in this game, but mostly overall he was fine.

And credit to Mike McCarthy and/or Kellen Moore – they set a game plan early to allow Dak to get rid of the ball quickly and safely. Dak was throwing mostly bubble screens and comeback/timing passes early on because he didn’t have that drive in his throws…smart of McCarthy/Moore to set him up for success given the physical issues/concerns/rust/whatever…or even just helping him work past the mental issues coming off all the injuries to deal with.

Bucs D-C Todd Bowles, of course, did not adjust to this early on and Dak just kept soft-tossing his way up and down the field. Once Bowles started to bring more pressure to the receivers and to the pass rush, then Dak started to struggle for a drive – but then after he got hit hard after a throw and survived it -- he started getting his legs under him and beating the Bucs defense more like his old self. Bowles called the exact wrong game and changed concepts at the exact wrong time…or the Bucs just aren’t that good of a defense/they lost too many DBs before and during the game and got exposed. They played great against the run as they do, but then got carved up by simplicity in the Dallas passing game – you can’t have a rusty, early-tentative Dak running you ragged in the passing game with CeeDee Lamb (7-104-1/15) dropping every other throw to help you out. I thought the Bucs D might harass Dak early and often…they never really did. Dak made it look easy.

It’s hard to believe that this pretty-much-the-same Bucs defense crushed Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl…and then pretty well embarrassed themselves in this game by letting a rusty Dak soft toss his way through them for most of the game.

If CeeDee Lamb were a really good WR…Dallas wins this game going away.

RIGHT: Amari Cooper (13-139-2/16) was a discount high-end WR1 going for WR1.5-2.0 redraft value too often this preseason. I got nervous too about Dak’s part in this equation for Amari in early August but once Dak was cleared we were back solid with Amari if/when it fell to us 3rd, sometimes 4th-round of redrafts. Cooper is a top 5 Fantasy WR when Dak is playing.

RIGHT: Avoiding Ezekiel Elliott (11-33-0, 2-6-0/2), for the lofty price, taking Mike McCarthy at his word…that he was going to involve Tony Pollard (3-14-0, 4-29-0/4) more…was the right read of the situation. Not that Zeke is dead, but he may be more RB1.5 than he is top 3-5 no-doubt elite RB.

Pollard was starting several series…not just rotating in on 3rd-downs or some bit player. If you didn’t know better, you’d think Pollard was their most dangerous back…and he might be. I know it was the great TB run defense squashing the run here, but I took note of how often Pollard was starting a series and how involved he was…and it’s not great news for Elliott owners.

Elliott is not dead…he’s just starting to move away from being FF-royalty at running back. His name/reputation is bigger than his reality. He’ll have his big games ahead, I’m sure…and he’ll likely be an RB1 level performer/scorer for the season. But he’s not THAT GUY anymore…he’s just a really good Fantasy RB to have, not like a ‘best in class’ option anymore.

Credit to Mike McCarthy/Kellen Moore for seeing they needed to diversify off 100% usage of the overrated Elliott and starting to mix in the suddenly more (differently) dangerous Tony Pollard.

BE CAREFUL: I’m not a big fan of CeeDee Lamb (7-104-1/15), and he showed why several times in this game – drops-o-rama. He’s just an average/good WR who is not a game changer, but if he’s on the field in a high-volume passing game, he’s gonna get some numbers. He’s not incompetent…just he’s treated like a god, and he’s not better than Russell Gage on an NFL field.

Lamb was struggling early, and then the Bucs lost CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (2 tackles) to injury and later Mike Edwards (4 tackles) came up limping…and all that combined with Michael Gallup (4-36-0/7) going down (who was working better than Lamb) and then Amari Cooper started getting extra attention – so, Lamb was there and got throws…not because he’s a force, but because it was there…like Brady-to-Godwin. Tampa went into a ‘Let Lamb try and beat us’ mode as they focused on Amari with Gallup out. It’s not a compliment when your opponent rules you as the weak hand they’ll not over-focus on.

So, my anti-Lamb stance looks bad after his nice FF scoring week…but let’s see how this plays out. Lamb will probably be fine by existing around Dak with Amari getting so much attention. But I think he’s more WR3 talent getting WR2 work than a future/star WR1 hopeful.

I GUESS, RIGHT?: Not a big deal item, but it was a split TE role/rotation for Dallas…Dalton Schultz (6-45-0/6) is the lead with Blake Jarwin (3-20-0/4) rotating in a lot…and neither exciting for Fantasy production but they’ll have a good game/TD every so often. If you need either one of these guys this season…things aren’t going well for you at TE for Fantasy. Schultz is the better FF option of the two now.

Other non-offense/skill position notes…

-- Micah Parsons (7 tackles, 1 PD) looked a little lost, got burned by experienced players on plays early on like Isaiah Simmons did last year for Arizona. The difference is, Simmons kept getting burned and got benched quickly last year. On the other hand, Parsons settled in and got better each quarter as he got his feet underneath him.

Parsons showed all the promise here, and being the defensive play caller against Tom Brady, as a rookie in his very first game…only good things ahead for Parsons.

Side note…when Parsons decides to cover an RB or TE on a passing route, forget it. It’s not open. Parsons covered Gio a few times and Parsons consumed him.

The addition of Parsons to the starting lineup had an affect on the other Dallas LBs…

Leighton Vander Esch (2 tackles) back from his injury plagued 2020…just two tackles. Wildly overrated Jaylon Smith (4 tackles), just two solo tackles. However, Keanu Neal (6 tackles) just now (2021) shifted to LB from safety…as many tackles as Vander Esch-Smith combined. Things are changing, for the better, with the Dallas defense it looks like – just a tough opening season matchup…and they almost pulled the upset.

-- The preseason reports of Greg Zuerlein (3/5 FGs, 2/3 XPs) having some physical issues of concern to start the season…I guess they were not joking. Z missed an easy field goal and extra point early on, and it looked like Dallas would be shopping for a new kicker Friday morning. However, credit to Zuerlein…he rallied back and made the rest of his kicks, including what they hoped would be a game winner with 2-minutes left.

Still, I would be looking at alternatives at FF kicker if you’re rolling with Z right now. You shouldn’t be, but if you are…look at viable alternatives ASAP.

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SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:

64 = Godwin

61 = Evans

42 = A Brown

42 = Fournette

17 = Gio

06 = RoJo

57 = Gronk

18 = Brate

06 = OJ Howard

21 = Tryon (debut)

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70 = Elliott

20 = Pollard

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57 = Schultz

48 = Jarwin

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