R.C. Fischer

FFM

02 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Patriots 36, Raiders 20

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

This was a tight ball game at halftime…13-10 Patriots, and it was a mild slugfest. Then, I don’t know what happened…the Raiders started making some gaffes and the Patriots muddled around but capitalized. The stats were pretty even, the play seemed pretty even, but three Raiders’ fumbles gave the Pats a time of possession edge and a comfortable win.

Belichick took out Darren Waller and stuffed Josh Jacobs, and the Raiders don’t have much of an answer when that happens.

Las Vegas was coming off an emotional MNF win, and on a short week going to NE they lost. Not a crime. The problem for LV is this schedule stretch ahead continues to be rough. They get Buffalo Week 4 and then they go at KC Week 5. The Raiders are about to be (2-3) and swirling a bit when they host TB Week 7. The schedule loosens after that. We see in the 8-10 win range, with 9 the most likely.

The Patriots are in a rough schedule stretch as well…at KC, DEN (easy), bye, SF, at BUF. That Week 8 with Buffalo is going to be a war. Week 10 hosting BAL will be no treat either. The Pats season/AFC East title streak is kinda on the line Week 8 vs. Buffalo. The Patriots could be hard-pressed to get to 9 wins, much less 10 wins. They will likely be (3-3) facing (5-2) Buffalo Week 8…and the Bills could deal a death blow to NE there.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- What to make of the Patriots sudden RB surge/mess? Should you want any of them?

Rex Burkhead (6-49-2, 7-49-1/10) is now a god. He’s nearly doubled Joe Mixon’s fantasy PPG through three weeks…let that sink in. Most of it coming from this game, obviously. Can you trust Burkhead now?

No, not really. It’s Rex Burkhead. This is what he does. He may score another TD this week…he’s solid, but there is a sea of Patriots RBs to begin with and the tide is coming in with James White and Damien Harris about to return. If you need a flyer for Week 4, digging deep…Rex is a name.

James White back instantly undermines Burkhead more than Sony Michel (9-117-0)…the 3rd-down role and all. It’s what would scare me on Rex.

I’d be selling Michel, partly on White back…partly on Rex so solid, and partly on Damien Harris getting active. Damien Harris could be the Patriots’ Darrell Henderson…and you know what I’m saying, so drink that in for a moment.

Don’t drink for too long because Henderson had easier RBs to put in his rear view, as he has already. For Harris to become DHendo 2.0, he would have to dispatch Rex and Michel to the bench and 70/30 split with James White to even have a chance. Not going to happen.

Belichick cannot be counted on for fantasy RBs for long…he changes up like a great MLB pitcher. He has change ups he’ll throw on 3-0 counts. He might throw an Eephus pitch too. Damien Harris’s odds of getting a chance to take over the whole backfield and go on to FF goodness is very slim…BUT he can throw a wrench into everyone else’s touches.

Who will be the best Patriots’ FF RB for Week 4? Hellifiknow.

Don’t even start with J.J. Taylor (11-43-0) – I do know that answer is ‘No’.

 -- In the battle of Julian Edelman (2-23-0/6) style WRs…Edelman lost decisively to Hunter Renfrow (6-84-1/9).

I still like Edelman for PPR ahead, but I also know the second you lean on Cam for passing game output he’ll break your heart. See: Weeks 1 and 3 of this season.  Week 2 looked so amazing, I wanted in…but then you see Week 3…and I’m like, ‘No, thanks.’

Renfrow is playing his Edelman-styled arse off. He is so quality at that role. My hat’s off to him. Didn’t think he could stand out in the NFL, but unlike a lot of ‘gets targets because it’s there/open or in need’ WRs like Greg Ward or Russell Gage or Isaiah Ford – Renfrow is actually good+ at his craft. When the four-letter word WRs of the PPR-moment fade away (Ward-Gage-Ford) in weeks/seasons ahead – Renfrow will still be a quality/entrenched/respected NFL WR a la Cole Beasley.

Now, the Raiders don’t want to pass…and don’t want to pass to WRs by choice – but suddenly they have to. Teams are stacking the run and playing Waller as a WR. Renfrow has a window…the guy Carr is most comfortable throwing to at the moment (outside of Waller).

 -- It would the Raiders’ passing game if Bryan Edwards (2-48-0/3) and Henry Ruggs were not hurt/out. Speaking of Edwards. His play he got hurt on here…another flash of the looming greatness he might have. I’m very impressed with the total five catches Edwards has this year. The problem is he has just five catches this year.

Las Vegas will likely get more balanced as the season wears on and when they get a new QB in 2021, but for now Edwards is in a storage box in mothballs.

 -- N’Keal Harry (2-34-0/4) fell off like the whole Pats passing game did. I still maintain…something is wrong with Harry; something doesn’t look right/feel right. He’s there, he’ll get targets and maybe he’ll get better but any one of Bryan Edwards’s catches this year showed more talent than anything Harry has done this year.

I thought Damiere Byrd (3-27-0/3) would have a big play in this game because of the Raiders’ cheating up secondary, but the winner of the ying-yang of that was…Cam is a weak passing QB, so he didn’t take advantage.

 -- The Patriots-DST is somewhat overrated. Since they stopped playing a gift schedule halfway through last season, they’ve not been a strong top 12 FF-DST. They got a fumble in the end zone TD here to help pump their FF scoring but otherwise this defense is good-not-great…they ebb and flow with the schedule, like every DST in the NFL now.

You want a ‘good’ defense with a favorable schedule. The days of the ‘great’/holy DST are over in 2020. With legalized holding and ‘letting them play’, scoring is through the roof. DST scoring is down. You can really get over (like last week) if you have the right DST playing the right team. The right DST is a massive, secret advantage in a time when many good defenses/DSTs are giving up 25-30+ points every week and scoring lowly for FF.

The Pats have at KC, DEN, bye, SF, at BUF, at NYJ, BAL the next six games…useful two of 6 weeks. After that: at HOU, ARI, at LAC, at LAR…that’s not great either. The Pats-DST is a hard hold waiting for Week 5 and Week 9 (which will be awesome for them). I’d hold for Week 5 (use something else Week 4) and then ditch out for better if you find it.

Snap Counts of Interest:

32 = Burkhead

26 = Michel

15 = JJ Taylor

50 = Agholor

39 = Renfrow

27 = Zay Jones

24 = Edwards

R.C. Fischer

FFM

02 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Packers 37, Saints 30

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

This game is remembered as a Packers definitive win, but it was back-and-forth until the final few minutes. Every time the Packers took a lead, the Saints scored right back to tie…until GB put it away in the 4th-quarter. All the important stats/indicators were close except the Saints had a key turnover and had 8 penalties to GB’s 2 calls.

I’m not suggesting the Packers didn’t win, or weren’t the better team…they were. I’m just noting these two teams are both good and played a game where Green Bay edged it out because Aaron Rodgers is better than Drew Brees and Allen Lazard was the best WR on the field for either team…and the Saints didn’t realize it for a half, but by then a lot of damage was done.

Speaking of Allen Lazard…the very last piece of this report will be on Lazard, the injury, and the search for healthy WRs for Week 4. I will go through every NFL team at the end, commenting on the WR hopes and dreams. I’ll clear a few simple player notes ahead of that and then dig into that pressing issue.

The Packers are (3-0) and host ATL on MNF…so, (4-0) here we come. Then they get a schedule break (again) -- with a huge NFC game ahead Week 6 at TB…the Packers have a bye wedged in-between to rest/prepare. We’ll see how great Green Bay really is Week 6 at TB and Week 9 at SF. If they win both or split those two games, they’re likely headed to a #1 seed…which at Green Bay in the winter will be a huge edge for them.

The Saints have fallen to (1-2). Their schedule lets up a bit for the next five weeks before they draw at TB rematch Week 9 and Week 10 v. SF. If Tampa Bay loses at TB in Week 9…the possibility they lose the NFC South to the Bucs is very real.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I’m getting a lot of Robert Tonyan (5-50-1/5) questions this week, which is good/what I live for. I’ve been a fan, hoping he’d get more play. This was a sweet stat line, but I didn’t see anything indicating anything special or a shift in the offense on the re-watch.

The Packers ran a little TE quick block and then drag along the LOS in front of the QB for a simple dump pass and turn up field. The Saints rarely covered it, so it was there all game – thus the Packers, out of nowhere, had 9 catches/104 yards/and 2 TDs on 10 targets to three TEs combined this game. It was there…it was a wrinkle…the Saints were poorly schemed all game…and we had a moment.

I don’t see a big shift to Rodgers firing missiles to Tonyan as a weapon ahead. He’s as random as any other starting TE in a good offense who is not in the top 3 of the QBs target list.

 -- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (1-5-0/4) could matter this week/for a while…with the Lazard injury, you figure the non-Adams WR option should get some work, but when has that been true the past couple of years with Rodgers?

With Adams back, it’s all Davante and Aaron Jones and everyone else randomly. MVS could have a 15+ point FF game as well as an under 5 pointer…if Adams is back.

Against Atlanta, you have to like the 15+ side.

 -- Both of the Saints starting CBs are battling injury right now.

If the Saints lose Marshon Lattimore but not Janoris Jenkins this Week 4, then Kenny Golladay gets a bump, as does Marvin Jones.

If the Saints lose Janoris Jenkins but not Lattimore, Golladay is a start but sketchy. Marvin Jones gets a bump.

If the Saints lose both Lattimore and Jenkins this week…it’s looking good for KG and Marvin, and not looking good for the Saints-DST or the Saints -4.0.

 -- GB ILB Ty Summers (9 tackles) played his first real ‘starting’ role in the NFL this game and responded nicely. He’s a throwback middle linebacker that will get a bunch of tackles – a high quality tackler who likes to play the run. He stood out to me last preseason…he might be getting his chance now.

I’d need to see him start/play the most ILB snaps again to be really sure he’s happening/starting/IDP-worthy option ahead.

 -- OK, Allen Lazard (6-146-1/8)…

No sense getting into an analysis of his play – he broke out with another ‘star’ moment and then got taken away from us, like every WR in FFM-land it seems. Parris…Courtland…Chark…Diontae…now Lazard. Sure, raggedy-ass Marvin Jones and T.Y. Hilton and A.J. Green are fit as a fiddle/not hurt, but the great young emerging stars we found as part of our heavy RB plan…those WRs hit mostly and then got hurt/taken away from us.

We’ve gone from ‘my RBs are killing me’ to ‘my WRs are killing me’. Only…this time you’re right. Remember back when you were always chasing RBs off the waiver wire…praying for anyone getting touches? Now it’s happening with WRs, but in this case…we got options…plenty…we hope. That’s the reason we wanted to go jumbo-RB out of the redraft, because of the WR depth of the pool.

Well, here we are.

Don’t tell me (this week)…”I have the worst luck, of course all my WRs are hurt. God hates me!”

May I remind you who the top WRs taken in the draft were this year? In order, through 3 weeks…

Michael Thomas (out 2 games)

Davante Adams (out 1.5 games)

Tyreek Hill (doing fine)

Julio Jones (dud Week 2 with injury, out Week 3)

DeAndre Hopkins (may be out Week 4)

Chris Godwin (out for weeks)

Kenny Golladay (missed first 2 games)

Mike Evans (master of the 1-yard TD)

Adam Thielen (doing good)

DJ Moore (WR1 bust)

OBJ (WR1 bust)

Allen Robinson (could’ve gotten cheap in some places after Week 2)

What’s that…two WRs who have been good/great for three weeks so far in 2020? Everybody has issues right now.

Wishing you would have drafted other WRs earlier is not the salvation you think it is. Everyone is dealing with injuries – this is where we can shine, out-scouting, out-timing, out-grinding our opponents. You may face the healthy team this week and get beat…but at least you have an excuse. Likely, you’ll face a team with random events happening to them too. Let’s get it on!!!!

Winning Fantasy Football is a three-part formula…

33.33% = Smart scouting before and in-season

33.33% = Smart management…you can know all the smart players but not panic buying high or selling low at the first hint of an issue that you blow up into a mountain that was a molehill, including wild pinata swings at your starting lineup setting based on what happened last week – that can erase all the good scouting in one fell swoop.  

33.33% = Luck. Did you face the Davante Adams team Week 1 and got destroyed, or faced them Week 3 and crushed them? Luck tends to even out. A bad schedule Week 1 or 2 gets made up for as we go. But panicking because of a bad schedule Week 1-2 or a bad lineup setting, etc. – that’s not luck, that’s mismanagement.

Yes, it’s a WR crisis right now…and ‘no’ it’s not fun/it’s frustrating. But every season brings this…either at RB or QB or whatever. Most every team gets hit with it at some point. How anyone responds to it – that’s the game here. It’s easy to set-and-forget. The actual chess ‘game’ part of this, the real fun is…sifting through little known WRs and trying to find a savior, just for a week. Or landing that DST ahead on smart schedule outlooks. This is the fun part…the management of it. The mental challenge. It’s also fun having a dominating team that’s healthy and destroying everyone but in lieu of that…the next round of fun is trying to spin the Rubik’s Cube to solve it better than your opponents spinning that same Cube.

There are WR options this week, we just need to find them…the ones who will work this week (and may never again or not for weeks). Let’s go to work.

I’m going to go through every team and give a pitch for certain lesser-name WRs, and you can look over them all and decide which gamble you like. They are all gambles. I’m going to pitch you 15-25+ of them…don’t ask me over and over which one to play over another…because look at the projections – they’re all grouped together. They all have a case; they all have fears. Picks 2-3 options you like and ask your dog or flip a coin to pick one…

ARI = If DeAndre Hopkins is out, I go from ‘hope’ on Andy Isabella to ‘like’. And if Hopkins and Kirk are out, I go from ‘like’ to LOVE on Izzy. If Hopkins out and Kirk in…then he’s a legit play with Izzy as well…and it will be confusing which might be better.

ATL = Olamide Zaccheaus is a long shot ONLY if Julio is out.

BAL = I would try to avoid low volume passing games with the lesser-targeted WRs to try and find WR relief this week.

CAR = Curtis Samuel isn’t the worst idea in the world. Read my CAR-LAC report. He’s going to have the ball in his hands 8+ times this week. That ain’t nuthin’

CHI = Too difficult to guess Mooney v Miller.

CIN = Tee Higgins is a name, but he might draw C.J. Henderson and it be a problem. A.J. Green is ‘shot’ but plays.

CLE = nothing

DAL = I wouldn’t try to guess Cedrick Wilson for a repeat, but you could have worse ideas looking at the bottom of the barrel.

DEN = I shoulda stuck with my Tim Patrick instincts, he’s poor man’s Courtland Sutton now for DEN…but Rypien is a turnover waiting to happen, I worried he wouldn’t get the ball to his team more than the other team. He tried hard to give it away 5+ times last night.

GB = Marquez Valdes-Scantling has as much hope as anyone this week facing ATL.

HOU = Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb are in good matchups this week.

IND = I guess Zach Pascal could be OK. Not buying Daurice Fountain. I’m not a big Philip Rivers fan right now. I’m not sure how much I love TYH this week either.

JAX = Keelan Cole is in a good spot. He has been good for two of his 3 weeks this year. Don’t turn your nose at him because he didn’t dance for you Week 3 TNF.

KC = Mecole Hardman could always score a TD…but if you’re gambling on ‘fast guy makes play amidst his low snap/target counts’ then go with a real talent in Andy Isabella.

LAC = ‘No’ to Guyton/Hill.

LAR = ‘No’ to Reynolds/Jefferson

MIA = The reason Isaiah Ford is projecting well is a great matchup with a rookie slot corner and a Seattle team hemorrhaging passing totals. Preston Williams is a hope too, but he gets Quinton Dunbar…and that’s not great.

MIN = No to Beebe, yes to Justin Jefferson…but that’s not breaking news.

NE = Byrd/Harry are flyers that the Pats get in a shootout with KC.

NO = Tre’Quan Smith if Thomas were out…is something, but not exciting. Ditto Emm Sanders.

LAR = Daniel Jones casts a shadow over passing upside numbers for the WRs, but Golden Tate is something to use but not exciting at all.

NYJ = Remember when I said Jeff Smith? No…because I forgot he was on the Jets; much less thought he’d ever play in a real NFL game?

LV = I’m down with Hunter Renfrow this week. Down the bottom of the barrel: Agholor is not crazy; he seems to be in sync with Carr and Ag will start but also faces Tre’Davious White likely…nor is Zay Jones crazy for a revenge TD.  

PHI = Hightower is playing, so that’s something. Ward will get a lot of looks but has tough coverage this week with CB K’Waun Williams.

PIT-TEN = Thanks stupid COVID…I have to bench Diontae, Claypool, Davis, and Trump for this week.

SF = Aiyuk is my only interest, but it all gets sketchy if Deebo plays.

SEA = no one besides the obvious main WRs here.

TB = Scotty Miller is questionable and gets Desmond King if he goes, not easy…but I like what I see with Brady-Scotty. Rookie Tyler Johnson would be a surprise starter for TB possibly if Miller out…and he could come out of nowhere, but too much of a long shot to have confidence in.

WAS = You want something tied to Haskins? Sims isn’t starting. Rookie Isaiah Wright might have a moment but don’t bet on it.

Good luck in your searches. The ‘truth’ is out there…

Now is a good time to try to take advantage of the WR panicked in trade if you’re in a position to do so. 

R.C. Fischer

FFM

02 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Bengals 23, Eagles 23

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The shame of this game is…you know that they’re only a half a game out of first place still!

No…not the Eagles. I mean, the Bengals…if they were in the NFC East.

We’ve reached a point in the football universe where the Bengals are better than the Eagles, Giants, or Redskins. Bill Parcells and Joe Gibbs are rolling over in their graves that they are not technically in.

The Eagles ran for nearly 4x the yards the Bengals did. They out gained the Bengals overall. They dominated time of possession over the Bengals. The dominated thew Bengals on 3rd-downs. And, yet, Philly was lucky to tie this game. This is a Carson Wentz problem on top of the GM has supplied the team with terrible WRs and thus no depth at WR. Did they ban making trades in the NFL? Why are the NFL GMs so scared to make trades for things they need? It’s 32 of them…or 31 excluding Sean McDermott. How is Philly not on the horn making some kind of low level or high level WR trade?

It’s about to get very dark in Philadelphia. They have at SF, at PIT, BAL the next three weeks. The Eagles will very likely be (0-6-1) heading to face the Giants Week 7 on a Thursday night. The thing is, if they can beat NYG Week 7 and get to (1-6-1), they might only be a game or so out of first place when they host the Cowboys Week 8.

The Bengals are (0-2-1). Joe Burrow is getting hit all over the place. Yet, with an awful O-Line, weak coaching staff, and rookie QB…the Bengals are (0-2-1) but not far off of (3-0), oddly. They’ve had a chance to win every game late and haven’t. First win might Week 4 hosting JAX, but if it isn’t…they may not win a full game until Week 11-12 with Washington and NYG.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- What’s wrong with Joe Mixon (17-49-0, 2-16-0/3)?

Nothing wrong with him that I see. I keep looking for evidence of an issue, but he looks terrific to my eye. Speed is there. Cutting ability is off the charts as usual…he’s just getting no help from his O-Line and then is out on many passing situations. Why Zac Taylor goes with/throws to Gio Bernard (3-55-0/3) a lot in passing downs and not Mixon…I have no idea, but Zac Taylor isn’t winning any Coach of the Year awards anytime soon. Taylor would never be considered for an SEC head coaching job, but somehow, he’s an NFL head coach. The Bengals are going to be the Bengals…

Joe Mixon has rushed for 5 TDs in his last 21 games in the NFL. He has 3 receiving TDs in that span.

Under Zac Taylor, 19 games so far, Mixon has hit 15+ PPR points in a fantasy game 8 times…none in 2020. Mixon has hit 20+ PPR fantasy points in a game twice in that span, once in a meaningless Week 17 game.

Mixon looks and feels like an RB1, a guy to ‘buy low’…but the results say, time and time again…you’re getting a nice RB2 with limited upside (not on talent, but on situation). If you’re going to buy low…it has to be LOW. He’s not who you think he is…and Burrow has yet to make him FF better.

The fact that he could ‘pop’ because of his talent, and because this offense has more juice…that makes him a nice gamble for a (0-3) type FF team in desperation right now…hoping for that pop. The odds say it’s not coming anytime soon, but the talent says it might.

 -- Jalen Hurts (2-8-0) came in for two wildcat runs. His first tote was a nice 8-yard run. Hurts looks like he added another 5 pounds of muscle since college. He looks like Jonathan Taylor playing QB.

When Hurts takes over for Wentz, in-season, my guess around Week 7-8…he’s going to be a 100+ yards a game rushing threat. A power runner the likes of which, at QB, no one has ever seen.

The minute they turn things over to Hurts, the Eagles should trade Zach Ertz wherever they can get the best deal. But the NFL is too afraid to trade…they’re like half your league mates in fantasy. Petrified of making a mistake to the point that doing nothing is more soothing.

It may not be coincidence that the Eagles drafted Hurts and haven’t given into Ertz contract desires preseason. Someone may have seen this ripple effect of Carson Wentz’s downfall coming, and they stealthily prepared for it ahead.

 -- While we still have Wentz at QB, he has no WRs to throw to…they’re all hurt or suck or both.

Greg Ward (8-72-1/11) is his most reliable thing right now. It will work for PPR for a bit (until Hurts takes over).

With Dallas Goedert out, I suspect Zach Ertz (7-70-0/10) will see between 8 and 417 targets this week.

Alshon Jeffrey might be ‘shot’, and we don’t know it yet, if he can even get onto the field.

John Hightower (2-19-0/3) is not ready for any of this…but at least he is there.

Where is the great J.J. Arcega-Whiteside? Where is Harold Carmichael when you need him?

 -- None of the Week 4 Eagles starting WRs could even make the Bengals roster/WR depth chart…that’s how bad things are in Philly. The Bengals have good WRs and Joe Burrow (31-44 for 312 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) makes things look like child’s play in just three NFL starts. If he had any protection at all he’d set every rookie QB record there ever was…he still probably will.

Burrow has thrown for back-to-back 300+ yard games and 5 TDs/0 INT in that span. He is the #10 fantasy (4pts) QB on the young season already….and he’s just getting comfortable with his weapons.

Speaking of his weapons…

Tyler Boyd (10-125-0/13) has emerged as Burrow’s guy…this connection will be choppy all year based on matchups, but it has a chance to be a PPR WR1 year for Boyd.

Tee Higgins (5-40-2/9) looks way better than I ever thought he’d be. He has issues getting open, and the more defenses recognize him the more he can get shutoff, but when open he is showing very good hands. I’ve been impressed, but I had a very low opinion going in.

A.J. Green (5-36-0/6), as I said two weeks ago, is ‘shot’. He’s a 3rd/4th-option guy now. It’s Boyd-Higgins ahead of him.

Drew Sample’s (1-1-0/1) debut as a starter was a real ‘winner’. I wouldn’t dismiss him away just yet. He should be a solid TE2/bye week flex guy as we go.

 -- The Eagles sacked Joe Burrow 8 times, but that’s on the Bengals more than anything. Cincy is now the most sacked offense in the NFL…load up your pass rushers for IDP against them right now. Week 5 CIN at BAL and Week 6 CIN at IND might get Burrow killed…and he’ll still probably find a way to 300+ yards passing

Snap Counts of Interest:

78 = Hightower

76 = Ward

39 = Burnett

28 = DJax

18 = JJAW

71 = Sanders

13 = Scott

03 = Hurts

52 = Mixon

18 = Gio

57 = Higgins

55 = AJG

54 = Boyd

25 = Tate

16 = Mk Thomas

64 = Sample

09 = C Carter

R.C. Fischer

FFM

02 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Panthers 21, Chargers 16

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

What a bizarre game this was…

Because this was a game of two low fanbase/low interest teams, we kinda saw the ‘upset’ and some turnovers and a rookie QB for LAC…and it just seemed like ‘one of those games’. In reality, the Chargers had four turnovers (to CAR none) and eight penalties (to CAR’s 3) – and they still should have won the game on the final play.

On the last play of the game, they had a perfectly set up hook-and-ladder play where on the very last play from midfield, Justin Herbert fired the ball into the left-middle to a wide-open Keenan Allen, who caught it and ran to the center and a whole prevent defense followed him but then he pitched it to Austin Ekeler who, by design, was coming full speed the other direction for the pitch. It was a wide-open field to run and score to win but Allen pitched high and Ekeler muffed it, and...ballgame.

The Chargers threw for more yards (319-221), the rushed for more yards (177-81), they held a 31-29 time of possession, got more 1st-downs 26-14, and converted an astounding 60% of their 3rd-downs (while holding CAR to 25%)…and yet it’s an ‘L’ for the Chargers.

The Chargers beat Kansas City Week 2 but lost the game. Ditto here. The Chargers should/could be (3-0)…but also lucky they didn’t lose Week 1 to CIN and are (0-3) today. Under Justin Herbert, they should be (2-0) with a win over the defending champs – this team is SO MUCH better under Herbert.

LAC is playing for their lives, in a sense, the next two weeks…two very tough road games at TB, then at NO. They run a risk of falling to (1-4), but then their schedule turns, and they could wind up (8-8) or even (9-7) with some luck on their side. But with Anthony Lynn at the helm…luck is always against them, he defeats luck. Chris Harris being out is the other killer at this time. We bet they end up under 8 wins, which is a crime…but they chose their coach, not me.

Carolina is now (1-2), a nice win…but a fraud win. The Panthers are a tough out but still sloppy/helter-skelter. They have a ‘prove it’ game against Arizona this week…I think they’ll lose beyond the spread because they should have lost this game and been (0-3) and had everyone down on them with a worse point spread v. ARI.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Justin Herbert (35-49 for 330 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) looks excellent for a rookie thrown into a garbage Anthony Lynn offense. Herbert is saving Lynn from himself. The last two weeks, without Herbert, with Tyrod -- they would have lost by 2-3 scores each game.

BUT…

Anthony Lynn is smarter than you or me…you see, the two games they just lost (really they won but blew both) is Justin Herbert’s fault and the losses are a cover to get back to glorious Tyrod.

1) Justin Herbert is a really good-looking QB prospect with all the tools and then some. He is not fazed by any of this.

2) Herbert is like a better but less-gritty 2020 Josh Allen --- tall, huge arm, can run very well, can make all the throws.

3) Herbert will not put up huge numbers in this offense, yet. He’s getting good yards but not the TDs. He’s not being cut loose fully. The games have warranted more Herbert passing as the game went on, so he’s getting yards…but he’ll have a 200-250 yards passing game with 1 TD in a win soon. And that will drive his price down some more.

4) When Tyrod replaces Herbert for a game or two coming up…and if Herbert’s last game (before benched) is a low grade FF game – dynasty people, make a move if you need a young QB prospect for the future, while the price is somewhat down (off a weak game, losing games, Tyrod in, etc.).

I don’t know how far off Joe Burrow’s value/upside Herbert is, but it’s not as far as you think.

 -- Here’s my ranking of the best-looking, most important Carolina WRs to the team/Teddy…

#3) D.J. Moore (2-65-0/4)…two out of 3 games have been weak for FF so far. He’s not the pitch-and-catch guy or the go-to in this new offense. He’s just out there, and I see him working more as an outside receiver than any slot work. He’s not a bust, he’s just stuck in a weak FF situation for production…my fear all along.

He’s just not that good. He’s good, but not the guy everyone was hailing as ‘great’. He’s definitely NOT the main target for Teddy.

It’s not helping that he’s dropping an easy pass per game.

#2) Curtis Samuel (4-45-0/4, 4-7-0)…this may have been Samuel’s best game as a Panther, and he didn’t do a ton for FF in it.

The team got the ball to him on purpose -- handoffs as a tail back and short passes. They aren’t designing plays for DJM, but they are to get Samuel touches specifically.

What was so great for Samuel here was how tough he played. He’s just a little water bug/wiry looking RB/WR, but he made some moves after the catch and he was so tough to bring down, fighting for extra yards. I think this might mark the game where Samuel became more endeared to the staff then ‘out to lunch’/possibly pouting (it seems to me) D.J. Moore.

#1) Robby Anderson (5-55-0/5)…clearly the guy Teddy has the best chemistry with and RA was working the slot a lot here. It was a tough matchup with the LAC coverage, but Teddy was in sync with him on every throw. Anderson is running purposed get-open routes that Teddy is staring at as a 1st-option. Sometimes they let Robby go another way to take the tough coverage with him to open space for other things.

It’s a smart offense they’re running in Carolina…just Teddy is not the real answer. Still very erratic with his easy throws. When Carolina lands their future QB…this offense will be light’s out in 2021 or 2022.

*Not on the list = Ian Thomas (1-9-0/2). I’m not sure Teddy realizes Ian is on the team.

 -- Mike Davis (13-46-0, 8-45-1/9) had a nice game. I knew it was coming because no one had more news/human interest stories and support/love talk from the coaches this season than Davis going into this week. Davis deserves all that he’s getting right now. And it means we ride it hard for fantasy until it’s over/CMC returns.

I just want to note, Reggie Bonnafon (2-16-0) came in for a few plays, got two handoffs back-to-back, and then disappeared. He played 2 snaps.

Let me just say this – in those two carries, I can see ‘it’. A potential star is looming there. I don’t know when, I don’t know how, I don’t if he’ll ever get the chance. But he looks majestic running the ball. It’s Matt Forte all over again. I want to see more to be sure.

I need to see more of his work in real NFL games, but what I’ve seen over the past 3+ years – this guy has something special potentially.

I think that because Carolina suddenly was playing from ahead (a gift from LAC), that they stayed with the experienced guys to get the win. So, Bonnafon dipped in early and then stayed out. If Carolina is getting whacked in games ahead, I bet Bonnafon gets more work…and then they may never be able to put him on the practice squad again.

The fact any team could claim him, as Carolina puts him up and down off the Practice Squad (using the COVID rules) is why I know scouting is weak in the NFL. How are the Jets not claiming him? He could be the Giants starting RB right now. At least take a free look!

ARRRAWRGRGAAGGRG, I don’t want to think about it.

 -- Keenan Allen (13-132-1/19) + Hebert = WR1

Keenan Allen + Tyrod = WR3

End o’ story.

 -- LAC LB Kyzir White (11 tackles, 1.5 TFLs) has been starting the past two weeks, after not starting/playing much Week 1…I didn’t realize he was back starting last week.

White is averaging 6.5 total tackles, 0.75 TFLs per game the past two weeks. He can be a 6+ tackle a game guy easy.

Not good news for Kenneth Murray’s (5 tackles, 1 TFL) IDP upside tallies.

 -- The Chargers-DST is a good/great unit/FF play, BUT there are two pressures to worry about:

1) If they go back to Tyrod, that’s a slight ‘hurt’ for time of possession/ball control.

2) They just lost Chris Harris for several weeks…that’s a killer. Takes them from great-to-good.

You don’t want to use them vs. TB or NO the next two weeks, but then NYJ-MIA-JAX-LV-bye-DEN is a sweet spot and Harris will return in there.

LAC is a DST to vulture and sit on waiting to activate/deploy Week 6.

Arizona would get through Weeks 4-5, then LAC would carry you through the rest of the way potentially (outside of a Wk10 bye).

Snap Counts of Interest:

56 = Ekeler

23 = Kelley

45 = DJ Moore

40 = Robby A

33 = C Samuel

R.C. Fischer

FFM

01 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: 49ers 36, Giants 9

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

This was a game outcome/result/tape that should’ve made the Giants realize they made a MONSTEROUS mistake drafting Daniel Jones and they need to scrap this current offensive and completely rebuild it for the future. There are things to keep, but many things need changing…and QB is at the top of the list, and O-C should be the next change along with it, Saquon should be the next to go – but, instead, they’ll shove him a $100M+ contract because ‘the fans’ and ‘those quads’.  

The thing is, the Giants are playing with a scrappy good defense…they aren’t terrible. If they had a decent coaching staff and a better QB, they could have hung in the dreadful 2020 NFC East. But Peyton Manning knows his QBs, and you took his terrible advice, so you reached for Daniel Jones and now you’re paying for it. And when will teams ever learn about ‘team building’ not to waste high picks on running backs? Answer…never. Actually, ‘smart’ teams figured it out years ago…the dumb teams haven’t and won’t…or then they wouldn’t be dumb teams anymore. You think the sun will stop rising every morning?

The Giants will win a game this year, maybe 3-4-5 of them, they are not terrible…Daniel Jones is terrible, not the whole team (more on that in a second). At LAR, at DAL the next two weeks will likely not be one of those first wins.

The 49ers are incredibly banged up and went into the game thin and many big money bettors bet the Giants because of it – and the 49ers breezed to victory. Hats off to Kyle Shanahan…coaching matters. No more so on display than with wounded SF this Week 3. It’s also ‘luck’ because at the same time all the injuries hit…they got the Jets and Giants on the schedule. With a different schedule, the season could already be over for SF. The hope ahead continues because of a gift schedule with a three-game homestand with PHI-MIA-LAR.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- This game tape shows the end, the reality, the real problem with Daniel Jones (17-32 for 179 yards, 0 TD/1 INT), as I predicted ahead of his career (as did others) – Jones cannot work under pressure (real or perceived).

Every QB looks better when defenses are sold out to 10 in the box to stop the known running play/big carry RB offense. Ryan Tannehill just set up his family for three generations+ because of his ability to work efficiently when the defense is hyper-focused on Derrick Henry all game. Daniel Jones only looked mildly good with the benefit of all teams crowding Saquon every game. Now, with Saquon gone, and teams playing more balanced defense against him – Jones has no answer, no ‘other gear’. He’s a backup QB mentality…yes, sir/no, sir, in the facility by 3am, leaves at 2am, knows the playbook, and shits his pants when a defender gets within his vision. Sorry, I had to use the S-word because it made sense to do it.

Jones backpedaled, threw off his back foot, threw into traffic the entire game…and he also missed wide open throws because he got jumpy and misfired to open receivers. This game was a mess, and it’s going to be the norm for Saquon-less Jones.

They are going to have to dumb down the offense and put a bunch of screens and predetermined slants in because he cannot be a real pocket passing QB if pressure is coming. I hoped he would thrive in the 2nd-half of games against less pressure/prevent but it didn’t happen here. It might happen ahead (you hope for the FF WRs/TE involved).

 -- The Jones problem creates problems for two key receivers…

1) Darius Slayton (3-53-0/7)…Slayton works downfield more, which means Jones has to wait for that to develop, but Jones is in pre-shart mode if he has to wait on something downfield.

Darius Slayton looks really good to me, and did so again in this game – when he has an incoming pass he adjusts to off-target throws so well. He could really be a future #1 WR, but it’s going to be choppy here with DJ. He’s still a raw #2 WR thrust into a role he’s not ready for with a QB who can’t help him.

If you think the Giants will get garbage time numbers as we go – buy low on Slayton. He’ll be the dude, but he’s also the one teams will cover with their #1 CB – like Ramsey this week will wipe out Slayton.

2) Evan Engram (3-22-0/5) is going to waste here because Jones has no patience or vision for a tight end running a smart route. Engram looks fine, is getting open, but Jones is misfiring to him often.

How about a bubble/tunnel/screen pass to your speedy TE? How about a jet sweep? Wait, it’s Jason Garrett at O-C…he went to Princeton, so he’s smarter than me. I should shut up. Jason Garrett is really smart – because he’s literally stealing money in broad daylight on a daily basis in this league via a hefty paycheck.

I want to believe in Slayton and Engram, but it’s not working now…so why would it ahead? Maybe when the Giants hit the schedule stretch after this week or after Dallas Week 5 they might start garbage timing.

Garbage time is all we got here…but that’s a real thing. Ask 2019 Mike Evans and 2019 Chris Godwin.

 -- Some quick NYG RB scouting…

Wayne Gallman (4-7-0, 2-7-0/3) was the starter this game, but he isn’t a real NFL starting RB, but I bet (low amount) that he will be in a few weeks…for whatever that is worth.

Why?

Devonta Freeman (5-10-0) looks/ran like he ate another Devonta Freeman before the game and then tied a third Devonta Freeman to his back, and then decided to go give football another try.

I don’t know what kind of contract Freeman got, besides I know it’s like it’s $3M total. I’m going to go look…if NYG guaranteed his contract then Dave Gettleman should be fired today. *Going to go look*

OK, it was what I was hoping – Freeman ‘only’ got a $1.35M deal, with $17K per game active incentive, with performance opportunities to get to $3M. They can cut him with almost no ramifications. I don’t think he will see Week 8 as a Giant, I bet (low amount). Not what I saw in this game. But it’s his first game, so we’ll see if it was rust. But he wasn’t any good for the past few years…I don’t know what magic rust-remover could happen now.

Gallman starting here tells me that’s their mindset when Freeman fails. Dion Lewis is meaningless.

 -- Not one of the Giants current rostered RBs could make the 49ers RB depth chart…a depth chart five RBs deep. But there’s some news to report/worry about the 49ers’ backfield, from my scouting eye.

Let me just blurt it out: I don’t think Jerick McKinnon (14-38-1, 3-39-0/4) looks very good. I mean that from a sense of what he used to be and just in general. He looks a bit slow and stiff, as you would think with two years of knee surgeries and rehabs.

I’m mentioning this because…

It means Jeff Wilson (12-15-1, 3-54-1/3) will split time with him again…he’s not going anywhere, and he looks fresher/quicker. Not saying McKinnon is going to die or that he won’t be the lead this week…just note that the McKinnon I see is not that awesome. Not as good as the numbers are showing early. He’s fine, just not the ‘wow’ we remembered from years ago and assumed by his resurgence so far in 2020.

If I’m right, then McKinnon is a ‘sell high’ because without Mostert it’s a split for JMK (which is still kinda FF useful/good on SF) but when Raheem Mostert returns…it’s Mostert’s ball game with McKinnon in support with Jeff Wilson. When Tevin Coleman returns…JMK is just a lesser Nyheim Hines.

The current rise of McKinnon is sellable high. It also is casting some doubt on Mostert when he returns…what will the touches be?, Mostert owners might worry. I think it’s all-in on Mostert as the thing to have working behind the best O-Line in football. Buy low and sit and wait on Mostert to return if possible.

 -- Brandon Aiyuk (5-70-0/8, 3-31-1) was more involved here than I remembered from the live watch. Aiyuk got Deebo Samuel-type work…simple passes, several jet sweeps. It should continue to be solid for FF until Deebo (and JG) comes back and claims the top role.

I’d sell Aiyuk ‘high’ in redraft off this.

 -- I bailed on the SF-DST for things like IND, TB, KC in recent weeks. Too many injuries for SF, but that was a minor mistake because they are tearing up the New York teams.

They will likely do the same to Philly and Miami and then they will get rocked for the next 8 weeks after that. The time is short with SF-DST, but it’s working now. It’s a sell high after next week if you got in a place to do so.

 -- I’m impressed with the Giants defense. It’s why laying 12.5 with the Rams this week is a bit sketchy. Now, the Giants offense isn’t helping them, but this defense has got talent and is working very hard. When great matchups offer up – this might be a streamer.

#10 in pass yards allowed right now.

#20 in rush yards allowed, but #8 in rush yards per carry allowed.

Their issue right now is…#32 in 3rd-down conversions for their defense allowed.

They are flashing some hope, not imminent greatness. They’ve also played teams that are a combined (8-1). They won’t get a schedule break until Week 6 v. WASH, maybe.

Snap Counts of Interest:

20 = DLewis

18 = Gallman

15 = D Freeman

48 = McKinnon

23 = J Wilson

06 = Hasty

64 = Bourne

56 = Aiyuk

30 = Taylor

20 = Sanu

08 = Pettis

R.C. Fischer

FFM

01 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Bucs 28, Broncos 10

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

This wasn’t much of a game.

Denver did what they do…they fight hard but are so undermanned that they cannot win unless an equally inferior opponent or a lot of breaks – neither happened here. The Bucs are one the better teams in the NFL…they might be the best in the NFC before long. Tampa Bay was just too much for Denver…and considering it was on the road getting a win in the supposed ‘home field advantage’ (due to climate) – it was impressive that they beatdown the Broncos from the opening bell and it was over by halftime and they just played out the final 30 minutes and got out of town with the victory.

Denver gave it all they had. Jeff Driskel did what he could, but with this opponent and Denver’s talent surroundings…it was impossible. The joke is on Denver – if they think going to Brett Rypien is a winning move…they’re about to learn otherwise. Denver has a good chance to lose on TNF to the Jets and then be (0-7) heading into their Week 8 BYE.

Tampa Bay is gaining momentum and cohesion. They are trying to become the toughest team in the league with an intimidating, very good defense. They should be (4-1) heading into a crucial litmus test hosting Green Bay Week 6. I still believe TB will win the NFC South over the Saints, and I’m more confident after Week 3 than I was going in September pre-Week 1 making that call.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- First things first… I think a train wreck is about to happen Week 4 on TNF…the move to Brett Rypien (8-9 for 53 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) is a bad one. It tells me they either think Drew Lock is coming back Week 5…or that they want to tank the season. Doubtful Vic Fangio would ever ‘tank’.

People are like…well, Rypien came in and went 8-of-9 so maybe he’ll be OK. Maybe he’s ready.

His ‘great’ 8-of-9 passing came with minutes remaining with the game over but Denver trying to let Rypien do garbage time work. As Tampa’s defense laid back in a prevent, Rypien hit a couple of no-read quick hitter passes underneath (and almost all off-target) and they slowly chopped their way down the field.

When Rypien got near the red zone, the Bucs had enough of Denver O-C Pat Shurmur’s utter nonsense and they started teeing off on Rypien for three straight plays to send their message.

3rd to the last Rypien play: Rypien got walloped as he tried to throw it away, but it almost got intercepted. The worst ‘late hit’ penalty in the history of organized football was called and moved them closer to paydirt (and took the incompletion away).

2nd to the last Rypien play: Rypien was hit again, coughed the ball up, but it bounced to a Denver recovery. Drive still alive but Rypien got welcomed to the NFL the last two plays.

Last Rypien play: Now Rypien was jumpy after two big hits, so he tried to throw a stare down pass over the middle to what looked open in the end zone but two TB defenders converged and one of them picked it off…ball game.

All this led Shurmur/Fangio to believe Rypien had the goods for a Week 4 start? Good luck. He doesn’t have the arm strength. He is every flimsy backup QB to ever play an NFL game.

 -- Who will Rypien throw to this week on TNF? Anyone he predetermines too. I would NOT play any of those WRs for Denver if I had any other options…I don’t care if the Jets seem like a ‘good matchup’. Brett Rypien is a ‘good matchup’ for the Jets.

I’d say Tim Patrick (4-43-1/5) but Rypien has no favorite receiver besides where he is going to predetermine his throw to. It probably won’t be Jerry Jeudy (5-55-0/9) much because he won’t have time for things to develop downfield for him.

 -- Round One (Week 1) of Ronald Jones (13-53-0, 2-20-0/4) vs. Leonard Fournette (7-15-0, 2-7-0/2) went to RoJo, but you would expect that given Fournette just arrived.

Round Two (Week 2) was a shocker as Jones started, as he does, but Fournette had a great 2nd-half breaking a long run and scoring 2 TDs.

After Round Two, people started thinking Fournette was the way to go, only a matter of time. Well, Round Three/Week 3 went to RoJo, clearly. Jones is starting. He is involved more all game (15 to 9 on touches for Jones, 35 to 25 in snaps for Jones). If you watched this game in a bubble, you would never think Fournette was as important or more talented than Jones.

I stick by my assessments… Ronald Jones looks better than Fournette. Jones is running much faster, more nimble, and as tough or tougher. Fournette is winning the passing game battle between them, but not by a ton.

Jones will continue to start and Fournette will get in on a 60/40 split and has to hope he gets hot in relief  in-game to keep the touches going. Jones is the guy to own right now. I don’t see Fournette jumping in as starter for a while, and it will take an injury or major screw up by Jones to do it…more than one screw up.

Imagine three years ago someone told you Leonard Fournette would be the backup to Ronald Jones…

I wanted everyone with Fournette to own RoJo, or vice-versa, in case one got hurt – the other would spring to RB1 hopes. Well, you might get your first crack at that this week with Fournette very questionable this week.

 -- I don’t even know where to begin talking about the Bucs WRs. Tom Brady does not look all that in sync with the big guys and seems more interested in getting his rickety TE-friend the ball more than working out the bugs with the WRs.

Using this game as a judge, in a vacuum, here’s who I think Brady has chemistry with (and not) and I’ll list the three candidates in low-to-high order for Brady…

#3) Mike Evans (2-2-2/4). There isn’t even an effort by Brady to make this connection happen. The two one-yard catches were not any display of ‘in sync’ or ‘pitch and catch’. If you just look at Weeks 1 and 3, Evans has 3 catches for 4 yards and 3 TDs in those two games…the most bizarre stat line in the history of star WRs.

In Week 2, Brady hit Evans deep for a clunky looking 50-yard play. Minus that one play, Evans’s season averages are…

3.0 rec. (5.7 targets), 19.3 yards, 1.25 TDs per game.

Barely a 50% connection rate. Not even 20 yards per game.

There are MAJOR issues here. Maybe they’ll get fixed as we go, but Brady is not having the same issue with the other guys (to my eye). Brady loves throwing over the middle short/medium…whereas Evans is working the wings.

#2) Chris Godwin (5-64-1/6). There’s a little more sync here but mostly off Godwin running simple crossers underneath in Brady’s vision line up the middle and he dumps it to Godwin, who then makes hay after the short catch. It’s not impressive looking, but works some.

#1) Scotty Miller (3-83-0/5). The moment Brady feels uncomfortable, or the pre-snap where Brady likes the matchup…he likes to float it out deep to Miller. He also has some Brady-to-Edelman sync with Miller…especially underneath where Brady likes it.

10 catches, 18 targets, 108 yards = Evans in 2020

10 catches, 14 targets, 167 yards = Miller in 2020

I think Miller is worth looking at as ‘a Brady guy’…one with good speed and hands and fits a mold. I can see the connection with Miller more than anyone else for Brady right now. If you think Andy Isabella is something to hope for, Scotty Miller is lesser-talented but in a better place/desire with the starting QB.

 -- Can you use this Denver-DST against the Jets Week 4? I guess. It’s not white hot, but it’s something. There’s not much more than this Week 4 to use them ahead. It’s not a defensive unit on the rise at all. Maybe they’ll have an uptick when Bouye returns, but I need to see it first.

 -- The Tampa Bay-DST is starting to really heat up. We were on this early when many bailed after their opening week game vs. the Saints.

The Bucs are an intimidating, deep, good at all groups (D-Line, Linebackers, Defensive backs) unit.

The Bucs are…

#3 in sacks YTD

#3 in least amount of passing TDs allowed

#5 in QB rating allowed

#3 in rushing yards allowed

#2 in rushing yards per carry

The next five weeks are mostly good…

Versus LAC is a good enough matchup Week 4.

Week 5 at CHI is good too.

Week 6 hosting Green Bay is not as good.

Week 7 at LV is OK (Carr not big getting sacked or getting picked)

Week 8 at NYG is sweet

 -- I have to point out one defender from TB… Antoine Winfield (6 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD, 1 sack) already looks like a Pro Bowl safety.

A rookie starter playing every snap, and he’s averaging 5.0 total tackles, 0.67 sacks, 0.67 PDs per game. He’s the #5 DB in IDP scoring and he’s an absolute ballhawk. He’s kinda playing some of the Jamal Adams role from time to time…playing all over the place. He’s a legit IDP DB…a possible top 3 to the end kinda guy, I think.

Snap Counts of Interest:

58 = Hamler

53 = Patrick

46 = Jeudy

12 = Hamilton

04 = Cleveland

39 = Gordon

24 = Freeman

35 = RoJo

25 = Fournette

11 = McCoy

63 = Gronk

33 = OJH

61 = Evans

55 = Godwin

29 = S Miller

21 = Tyler Johnson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

01 October 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Colts 36, Jets 7

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it relates to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

Pretty straight forward game – Colts jumped all over the Jets, and NYJ had no real answer and the two pick sixes on top of the general domination allowed the Colts to play half-interested on offense all game and eventually playing backups mid-3rd-quarter.

I thought there might be nothing to really discuss from this game, but actually there were a few items of interest. We’ll get to those in the next section.

The Colts are now (2-1) and we don’t know how truly ‘good’ they are because their opponents are a combined (1-8) this season. The schedule is their friend for a few more weeks -- @CHI, @CLE, CIN, bye, @DET. Four winnable games ahead that they’ll likely find a way to lose one of them. They should be (5-2) heading to a showdown with BAL Week 9. We are projecting them between 8-9 wins at this stage…and 10-11 wins possible. The schedule is about to turn on them in the 2nd-half of the season, but they may be a much better team by then and maybe get some lost WRs back.

I have no idea what week/game the Jets will win a game this year. This team is so troubled, but they will probably win a game or two. This Week 4 TNF game should be cancelled for virus issues…because it’s going to make us ill having to watch that mess.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Just a quick note on T.Y. Hilton (3-52-0/3), and I know many of you are vested and been let down so far…and thus we’re all questioning if TYH is more ‘done’ than not…

I was encouraged, for the first time this year, by what I saw between Rivers and Hilton this game. It wasn’t big numbers, because the Colts were scoring defensive TDs and then pulling starters…in-between that they didn’t need to risk putting the ball in the air much.

There were the first signs of some comfortable pitch & catch here between them. There is hope here, especially in better/favorable matchups…and now that all the Colts have are practice squad type WRs for Rivers to rely on…which he won’t.

 -- The biggest shock for me in this game re-watch?

Kalen Ballage (2-8-0, 5-44-0/5) looks like he’s trying to be a real/useful RB here…not just some warm body. Look at the catch count.

It wasn’t garbage time either. It was several real, designed plays for him out of the backfield faking a block then swinging around into screen position and getting the ball and going strong, and quick.

He was entering the game early, rotating in and out, and then was taking turns with him and La’Mical Perine (7-21-0, 2-0-0/2) as the main RBs playing. The second half was like an extended practice for Perine-Ballage.

But here’s the thing…Ballage ‘looked’ really good, because he’s a good 1st-impression size/speed RB, visually. Ballage has some small-scale Antonio Gibson in him (great, big, fast athletes…but suspect instincts and mental acumen and determination). Perine looked less impressive of the two, because he’s less athletic/big/fast and isn’t designed to be a main carry/between the tackles guy.  

If the Jets ‘move’ Le’Veon before he can get active Week 5, and why they wouldn’t -- will be beyond me when/if they do nothing, then the Jets will have Gore-Perine-Ballage going forward. In a lost season, do we need more Gore? We’d likely be looking at a battle/tryout between Perine and Ballage as the season wears on…and that’s a battle Ballage can win. Worst case it’s a split. In deeper leagues, don’t lose sight of the fact that Ballage may be useful ahead in PPR.

The Jets/Adam Gase (drafter of Ballage in MIA) could care less about (my love) Josh Adams but the second he added Ballage, Kalen was playing and in Week 3 he’s the lead PPR back on a team needing to play small ball to protect Darnold. Ballage has some stroke with Gase, he will get a chance to show what he can do.

 -- UDFA rookie WR that I like, Lawrence Cager (2-35-0/4) was pressed into action…and he didn’t look bad at all considering the circumstances. He’s not quite ready yet and will go back to the bench or practice squad when Crowder-Perriman returns, but at least he’s made it up one step of the ladder…which is hard to do for any UDFA skill player.

 -- Braxton Berrios (4-64-1/4) had another Cole Beasley-esque/really solid, quality game here…two weeks in a row now. Can it hold up? No. Not once Jamison Crowder is back. Berrios may still play a lot but not enough passing numbers with too many mouths to feed.

 -- Michael Pittman (3-26-0/4) is our latest fallen WR soldier from the Colts. He joins Parris Campbell as being out until midseason at best. Parris is supposedly going to try and get back midseason, we’ll see…it might be more Week 10-11+ for him. If Parris can get back, we want in on that.

 -- Mo Alie-Cox (3-50-1/3) split time with Jack Doyle (0-0-0/0), in Doyle’s return. We don’t know if that’s a sign of things to come or if Doyle is not 100% yet. We’ll see more this week if the Colts aren’t playing in a laugher and pulling players late. Trey Burton could be coming back any week now too.

 -- Here’s how bad the Jets defense has now fallen/what they have to do given the personnel they have…

Usually a team will get 3-4-5+ QB hits on the opponents in a game and around the same amount of TFLs as a unit. Typically, the combine number for QB Hits + TFLs is between 7-11 for a team for any game. Between 5-15 combined will cover most every game output for teams.

The Jets had ‘1’ total…one QB Hit and no TFLs. That may be the lowest number I have ever seen from a team in a game.

 -- Nice game from the Colts-DST. Not a bad ‘last pick’ DST from us this offseason, no? We were going Colts or Rams off the jump for the schedule analysis opportunity, and the Colts are really paying off for those who chose that path and stuck with it after Week 1.

The Colts are the #1 scoring DST in fantasy after the first three weeks.

How long can you ride them for FF?

Well, you need a DST to cover them for Week 7 (BYE), Week 9 (BAL), and Week 11 (GB) at a minimum. In-between all that and to the end of the season they get OK-ish matchups with the likes of TEN 2x, HOU 2x, LV, DET. After Week 6, you have a choice to keep or move on due to the choppy schedule ahead. We’ll see as we get closer if they are a true shutdown defense…or if it’s just ‘good schedule’. I think it’s more schedule based right now.

The only natural pairing, on a defense sometimes available is IND+LAC, but LAC is taken more than not. If LAC is gone, it falls to NYG then Philly as available pairings that are decent…but I don’t love it.

For now, we ride Indy and see what happens in a few weeks.

Snap Counts of Interest:

36 = Alie-Cox

32 = Doyle

24 = Taylor

20 = Hines

17 = Wilkins

52 = Berrios

51 = Hogan

38 = Malone

29 = Cager

26 = Gore

21 = Perine

19 = Ballage

R.C. Fischer

FFM

30 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Chiefs 34, Ravens 20

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

Well, finally a good night at a Buffalo Wild Wings game event for me! The company and food are always good, but the last few times I’ve gone for a special event type game with a lot of ‘my guys’ going for FF – it seemed to end in depression on the players. Last time that I went to BWW needing a big Mahomes-Tyreek night, last year…it was the kneecap game…fantasy seasons changed in an instant. So did the mood and the taste of the food.

Not this night. The big Mahomes and good Tyreek and disappointing Lamar, Andrews, Ingram pushed FFM-nation to over 80%+ win rate Week 3…that’s what I’m talking about!! A lot of (0-3s) got cured to (1-2) and right back in it (just like I said, ye of little faith!). A lot of thought-to-be (1-2s) are now (so you say)  ‘lucky’ (2-1s).

The sun shines a little brighter on the FFM empire this week.

I would like to thank my local Buffalo Wild Wings for their excellent sports awareness hosting us Monday Night.

So, I go into BWW 10 minutes ahead of kickoff. I sit down. I look up at their 8,000 TVs all over and I see the ESPN MNF pregame on about 15 of them. 7,000+ of the TVs were on a college football game – a Saturday replay. The biggest TV they had in the joint was on mini-truck dirt track racing…I kid you not.

Normally, most all the TVs in this place flip over to whatever ‘the big game’ is at least 5-10 minutes ahead, if they weren’t already there. No big deal, I had a few minutes…but I thought I’d ask anyways…because I live by the rule most everyone hates and/or is terrible at their jobs. It’s this rule that makes me put my car in park at the Drive-thru window at a fast food joint after they hand me my food and open up every single item to make sure they got it all right – and feel like I hit the lottery when it is all correct. So, I sheepishly mention the lack of MNF games showing to the waitress…because I already get the vibe that she isn’t really isn’t into the details based on my first conversation (stoically took my drink order, never asked about an appetizer or food). She assured me that she’ll talk to the manager…but in a way where I’m not sure that was going to happen or matter. I’m sure it will be fine. Surely, I didn’t have to even have to mention it…but good to double check.

You don’t have to guess if the TVs ever changed over.

Our best view ended up the little 24” flat screen we had at the booth, which thankfully was on the game. They don’t ever show that in their commercials – people having a raucous time at BWW for ‘the big game’ spending $50 on food for two and watching the game on an old 24” Dell computer monitor that was high tech in 2010.

We had a fun time regardless. We should’ve gone to a sports bar instead. Our mistake.

https://youtu.be/DyrXIakdQm4

I didn’t ask a second time because I was hoping my food wouldn’t be cooked with extra COVID sauce on the wings. 

As far as the game itself, you saw it – Chiefs smash. Ravens wilted. The Chiefs are the undisputed best team in football and now people are wondering if Lamar Jackson sucks forever. The power of what people ‘just saw’. So much of fantasy management is how to properly deal with ‘what happened last week’ and knowing what to react to and not overreact to ahead from it. This was a highly viewed game, so Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown are terrible/on sale and you can’t discuss Patrick Mahomes in a deal. That’s how it works.

Last week, some asked me about selling Mahomes/Tyreek because all the teams facing them were going to do what LAC did Week 2…slow it down and take possession away from KC and crush all fantasy teams all year. A week later, no one cares about that anymore. That’s how it works!

For me, the fact that the Chiefs went and destroyed a Baltimore offense that has been a 90% of the recent (2019-20) time a juggernaut – it gave me respect for their defense more than anything. We’ll get to them in the next section.

KC has a next ‘Battle of the Titans’/battle of the top two teams in football game on national TV coming up…KC at MY Buffalo Bills on TNF Week 6. KC is likely headed to a 14-2/13-3 season and got a big feather in their cap for grabbing the eventual #1 seed by beating the Ravens already. KC faces New England this week…not the battle of teams/names we want to believe it is. The Patriots had zero answer for Seattle’s passing game Week 2…so simple deductive reasoning says they’ll have none for KC either.

Baltimore gets a real schedule break the next three weeks – at WAS, CIN, at PHI. I don’t think the -13.0 line is enough for the Ravens to give Washington this week. The Ravens should be (5-1) heading into their Week 7 showdown with the Steelers…another Ravens gut check moment this season (the Steelers). I bet they destroy PIT and then everyone will forget all about this KC drubbing. Losing badly to the Chiefs does not mean you’re a bad football/not great – it just shows KC is better than everyone else, again.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Is Lamar Jackson (15-28 for 97 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 9-83-0) toast? Has he been figured out?

What’s to figure out? He’s NFL-bad when he’s down 10+ points. If you see a game on the schedule ahead where he’s going to be down 10+ points, consider whether you want to play him. I’m not sure he’ll be down in a game that much the rest of the season.

Since Week 7 of 2019 season, here’s how much they’ve won each game by (in order):

14

17

36

34

39

3 (SF in a downpour)

7 (BUF)

21

16

18

(10 wins in a row to end 2019 regular season)

*2020 start*

32

17

Then this loss to KC.

A 12-game regular-season win streak where they won by an average of 21.7, but they lost to KC this week…so throw all that out the window, now Lamar and the Ravens suck? Really?

Even when Lamar got popped by Tennessee in the playoffs, he went off for fantasy numbers. This was a blip for Lamar. I’d need to see more issues happening to think Lamar is somehow dying.

 -- Snap counts at RB for Baltimore this game…

24 = Dobbins

18 = Ingram

13 = Ingram

This snap count doesn’t prove anything potentially, but I’ve been getting the sense from watching the games/rotations and talking to Baltimore contacts – the Ravens are itching to pull the Dobbins trigger. Now, they wouldn’t fully ‘diss’ Ingram at this stage -- but a situation where Ingram ‘starts’ and Dobbins takes 60%+ of the snaps could be coming as soon as Week 4.

Why not? Like the Ravens are so good that they have to defer to Ingram? They lost in the 1st-round of the playoffs. They just lost to KC. It’s not like they just won the Super Bowl, so they don’t want to mess with anything yet overreacting to one game. They have cause to make bold changes now.

 -- WR notes…

Marquise Brown (2-13-0/6) is a 5 catches, 50+ yards a game WR and will score 8+ TDs a season type player. Slightly limited upside because Baltimore doesn’t throw as much as other teams. He’ll be fine. He’s a buy low candidate.

Sammy Watkins (7-62-0/8)…must be nice catching passes and immediately falling down so as not to get hit. Nice work if you can get it…three years/$48M signed in 2018. He is getting every dollar of his ridiculous deal too, I can’t believe it. Imagine how good this offense would be if Watkins wasn’t there clogging up space?

Mecole Hardman (4-81-1/6) is trying to be ‘that guy’, but he was nothing for two weeks…but Week 3 he got a TD on TV, so the Mecole hype train is back…for a week. It all makes sense in our minds…’with Mahomes’, ‘Watkins sucks’…but go look at the targets and snaps – how can you buy into that now? It’s a year+ in and he can’t beat out Demarcus Robinson?

Devin Duvernay (2-7-0/3) is better than everyone I just listed above. If the Chiefs had drafted Duvernay, their offense would be heading to another level in coming years…instead, DD is stuck as a backup (for now) in a low-grade passing game. He did have a 93-yard KR TD this…because he’s very good…

 -- This Chiefs defense…

Why I am so excited is due to my ‘discovery’ before they played their Week 3 game…now I’m even more excited watching them handle Lamar.

From my Three Things/Five Players Report from Monday after Week 3 Sunday:

Dropped by many because of the Ravens matchup Week 3. After the Ravens game you get a long stretch against a mix of good and weak offenses. No powerhouse matchups until like Week 15…if you consider the Saints a powerhouse (at NO). Also, consider – the Chiefs have good-to-great defensive talent to go with (and an offense that supports them).

Weeks 4-5-6 with Cam-Carr-J.Allen is OK, but then it gets really good Weeks 7-14…

At DEN, NYJ, CAR, BYE, at LV, at TB, DEN, at MIA.

You know what pairing works great with KC…the Chiefs and the Dolphins…

Week 4 = KC v. NE

Week 5 = KC v. LV

Week 6 = MIA at DEN (KC at BUF)

Week 7 = KC at DEN

Week 8 = KC at NYJ

Week 9 = KC v. CAR

Week 10 = MIA v. NYJ (KC bye)

Week 11 = KC at LV

Week 12 = MIA at NYJ (KC at TB)

Week 13 = KC v. DEN

Week 14 = KC at MIA

From Weeks 4-15 you get 11 weeks, and 3 matchups with DEN and 3 with the Jets and 2 with the Raiders…over half of the games are vs. DEN and NYJ. Miami doesn’t have a terrible defense either.

From our Weekly Projections highlights:

The Chiefs defense is ranked...

-- #6 in league in points allowed

-- #11 in yards allowed

-- #5 in sacks

-- #4 in pressure% on the QB

-- #5 in Comp. Pct. allowed

This is a really good defensive unit with a very underrated D-C (Steve Spagnuolo) with the bonus of a dangerous return game.

One apart good defense, one part great schedule. Here's the QBs you'll face with a KC-MIA DST pairing through Week 14: Cam, Carr, Lock, Lock, Darnold, Teddy, Darnold, Carr, Darnold, Lock, Tua.

Snap Counts of Interest:

47 = Snead

46 = Boykin

44 = Mq Brown

07 = Duvernay

65 = Watkins

60 = Tyreek

41 = Dem Robinson

29 = Hardman

R.C. Fischer

FFM

30 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Lions 26, Cardinals 23

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

The Cardinals lost a game they should never have lost…you can’t be taken seriously as a playoff team and go and get outplayed by the Lions, at your home field. I don’t care if there are fans or not. Had the Cardinals won this game – their playoff ticket was really looking ‘punched’. Now, if they get outsmarted by Matt Rhule Week 4…all heck is going to rain down in Arizona, as it should.

The Cardinals offense is not special…not a special design by Kingsbury. It’s a basic run-and-shoot that lives and dies by the QB making plays. Kyler turned the ball over, inexplicably, three times and it cost them what should have been an easy ‘W’.

Arizona is facing at CAR, at NYJ, and at DAL the next three weeks – three games where a well-coached team with their talent should go at least 2-1. If they do, this Arizona team is set up to go win 9 games this season. If they stumble to Carolina, then a 7-8 win season is in view. What happens Week 4 vs. Carolina, a game Arizona should win, is going to be a huge ‘tell’ on where this Arizona team is headed.

Detroit seems like a ‘bad team’, but they blew their big lead/opening week win versus Chicago…or they might be (2-1) right now, with their only blemish a loss at Green Bay (understandable). The schedule ahead is not looking good…it’s probably a 4-5 win team for 2020, at best. Hosting New Orleans this week is their ‘last stand’ of sorts, and they’re catching the Saints after two losses. Are the Saints really going to lose three in a row? If they do…the Saints have ‘ended’ and no one told us. Big statement game for NO as well this week.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The Kyler Murray (23-35 for 270 yards, 2 TDs/3 INT, 5-29-1) report…

Earlier this week, I gave Kyler the worst diss possible…I said he was not as good as Josh Allen…maybe. In 2020, so far, he’s not.

But I did get a reality check here re-watching this game. Yes, Kyler had three of the worst INTs a QB could have in this game…the kind that gets Mitch Trubisky an end to his career type picks. And, yes, Kyler has 10 TDs/12 INTs in his last 8 games…which he should be taking way more heat for. But watching this game back – if I ignore the three INTs/mistakes, just watching Kyler play the game…he’s so damn good/natural.

I thought the issue was Kyler under pressure/not having enough time. Seems like a good football excuse, right? Seems to fit a narrative with Arizona’s O-Line, no? Check this out...

Kyler passer numbers with under or over 2.5 seconds in the pocket in 2020:

54-of-73 (74.0%), 437 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs, no sacks = Less than 2.5 seconds

21-of-40 (53.5%), 349 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs, 6 sacks = More than 2.5 seconds

Kyler is better when things are messy and he’s scrambling around making improv plays…or just doing his quick pass bullets. It’s when the quick pass is covered and Kyler hangs in the pocket looking for options…he then ‘forces’ things, or more to the point…nothing is open because these pass patterns aren’t getting things done. Notice the sack counts as well.

Most of Kyler’s problems have been on 3rd & 10+ and him trying to wait/let things open up…he’s 5-of-9 with 0 TDs/3 INTs in these 3rd and long situations. Kyler hasn’t mastered the art of the check down…maybe that will come with time. It’s possible Kyler is never going to be a good pocket passer and this is the only offense he can ever work/thrive in.

Overall, don’t be afraid of Kyler for FF…but do be afraid that Kliff is not helping/not coaching/doesn’t call plays that help Kyler – I think Kyler is on his own to make everything work, and he is not a hard worker/studier, and is just going along on natural talent…and that will work, but getting to an elite NFL level may never be in the cards/Cards for Kyler.

 -- One solution to this would be ‘more’ Andy Isabella (4-47-0/4). The guy is a star waiting to happen. Emphasis on ‘waiting’.

No Christian Kirk, and with Isabella showing everyone here that he is the clear best non-Hopkins option they have…and Izzy wasn’t out there every play on the final drives to try and win this game. Iz also played just 26 snaps in the game…20 less than waste of space KeeSean Johnson. That’s a Kliff problem…not a Kyler one.

Two moves in the NFL that would change teams/fortunes…(1) J.K. Dobbins as full starting RB for BAL, and (2) Arizona starts and plays Isabella 90%+ of the snaps WITH Christian Kirk. If Arizona goes Hopkins-Fitz-Isabella-Kirk…it would be the ‘Greatest Show on Turf 2.0’.

There’s still time to get FF-in on Isabella. Not this week…the price/interest is hot. But after a 2-25-0/3 this week or next…and he gets dropped/no one cares…then we’ll see if the time may be right.

 -- You know who started at RB this game for Arizona? Chase Edmonds (3-13-0, 2-21-0/2).

I sense the Kliff ‘heel turn’ on Kenyan Drake (18-73-0, 1-6-0/1) starting to formulate. The next hostile takeover at RB coming might be Edmonds moving to a 50/50 split with Drake in the next few weeks.

Drake came in third play and took the bulk of the work…but what was Edmonds starting? When Kliff did that to DJ last year, it was big news/worrisome news (and it was right to worry). Not a peep here, because Drake ended up the bulk worker on paper.

Maybe it’s nothing. Maybe it’s something…

 -- You can ditch Marvin Jones (3-51-0/3) if you’d like. I wish you would, because then it would mean he’ll score 3 TDs the following week…and he can finally get going. Lift the jinx already!!

Marvin looks fine, but he’s not explosive, he’s just professional/competent…in what I hoped would be a shootout offense and Marvin would get his, but he’s not…not really, not anything you can’t get from any other WR2.5-3 flyer.

Allen Lazard is the Marvin Jones production I was looking for (in 2020), only Lazard is way more talented – lower catch counts than you want to see type of guys but 10+ TDs coming for one of them in 2020.

 -- I’m not a big T.J. Hockenson (4-53-0/7) guy, but he’s working better than Marvin right now.

4.3 rec., 57.0 yards, 0.3 TDs per game…the #9 PPR TE in fantasy.

He’s a fringe TE1 with the Lions offense right now…an offense that is going more towards the run, where they’ve wanted to be all along. TJH will work well in that for FF…Marvin takes a hit, unless the Lions get dragged into shootouts…and they will be a lot ahead, I think.

 -- The Lions have decided to make Adrian Peterson (22-75-0, 1-10-0/1) their offensive focus, because of course they did. Couple things to consider off their proclamation…

1) Where are all the people who assured me that I was an idiot on my negative Kerryon Johnson (3-16-0) scouting back when he came into the NFL?

2) D’Andre Swift (0-0-0, 1-19-0/2) is now a bit player/Theo Riddick…only good when 2-minute offense is needed. Just a PPR RB3 right now…at best.

3) The Lions REALLY want to be a power run team, bad news for FF on Stafford & Friends…but wanting to be a power run team but always being down 15+ in the 2nd-half and having to throw a lot might be the outcome whether they like it or not. Just know…they have no interest in letting Matt ‘cook’ as a first plan.

 -- I thought Tracy Walker (12 tackles) was going to be a part time player ahead, after he was in Week 2…but he went 100% of the snaps here and was his great IDP self again. I have no idea what Patricia is doing with him.

Jeff Okudah (6 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 PD, 1 INT) has played two games and has nice IDP numbers for a cornerback. 6.5 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 0.5 PDs/INTs per game so far.

 -- The best thing going for the Arizona Cardinals, OUT OF NOWHERE, is their defense. They are #7 best in passing yards and total points allowed YTD. #5 in most sacks.

They are the #13 DST for FF scoring so far…better NFL-wise than for FF. Last in the league with 0 INTS and #30 in the league with two turnovers.

Facing at CAR without Budda Baker is not a slam dunk situation…in fact, it may be a DST issue for them this week.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Hopkins

56 = Fitz

46 = KeeSean

26 = Isabella

44 = Drake

21 = Edmonds

39 = D Daniels

31 = D Arnold

61 = Marvin

49 = Golladay

30 = Amendola

14 = Agnew

40 = AP

20 = Kerryon

06 = Swift

R.C. Fischer

FFM

30 September 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 3: Game Analysis: Bears 30, Falcons 26

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

I’ll forgo any lamenting on how the Falcons lost another game after getting out to a huge lead.

I will say:

(a) they keep getting put to big leads, and that’s something to note…they aren’t killed right away and never in games.

(b) they had the worst-looking/most hurtful inactives of any team this week going in – not just Julio, but many key defensive players out as well. They were undermanned and almost/should’ve won.

(c) the Bears had every fumble bounce and botched Falcons INT right in their hands (but dropped) moment go their way 2nd-half to help keep fueling the big comeback. It was a lucky comeback by CHI.

The Falcons are (0-3) and have to be the most psychologically damaged team in the NFL…as the travel to Green Bay – and with the Falcons maybe more wounded on the injury reports than they were last week. Tough times.

The Bears have to be the luckiest (3-0) team in NFL history. They should absolutely be (0-3). The fun times likely end this week with Indy coming into town and then a tough schedule stretch through Week 9 and most of the rest of the season. We still project the Bears to have a losing season, but 8-9/9-7 is possible. With Foles…anything is possible.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I guess I live in an alternative universe. As Mitch Trubisky (13-22 for 128 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) was winning his first two games, and getting some national praise…I, a known Trubisky defender, thought Trubisky looked as bad as I had ever seen him.

Here, in this game, his career ends…and I thought he was playing his best game of the season. Finally starting to show some confidence. His body language looked great/confident and he was really zipping throws. Jimmy Graham forgets which side of the field he’s on during a pass pattern and Trubisky throws to the pattern and Graham is off picking dandelions and it sails right to a defender for the pick that ended his career.

On that pick, Trubisky turned into a free safety and chased down the looming pick six and probably saved the game with a tackle…which then led ATL to settle for a field goal on the gift turnover instead of a quick defensive or converted offensive score. Had Trubisky not chased down that tackle – the Bears lose, too big a lead to overcome. See! Trubisky is really good for fantasy…as an IDP.

Bring on the Nick Foles (16-29 for 188 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) era. Foles was better the Trubisky, but was taking a lot of throwing risks…but the game situation warranted that. Everything is better with Foles, but it can only go so high. Foles is a very good QB in the wrong era for his style of play, but he’s still good. He’s also in a situation with a team/fan base that wants him (because they hated the incumbent) – Foles has never been wanted (except by Philly fans, now in retrospect) and with an offensive coordinator he’s close with. Hopefully, Foles gets his due here.

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bears lost all their games under Foles…or if he led them to the Super Bowl. He’s magic…and he’ll never get the appropriate credit for his career, a career the NFL wasted. The NFL people do like Sam Darnold a lot, though. Not anymore, but they used all be in 100% lockstep agreement.

Mitch Trubisky will likely never play another down in this league, on purpose. He should just go quietly retire after he collects up all his current contract. No one will take a chance on him because of the media/fan backlash, and the NFL doesn’t have the time or talent to develop QBs (except Sean McDermott, Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan).

 -- What’s better with Foles?

Allen Robinson (10-123-1/13) is now an every week WR1, period.

Jimmy Graham (6-60-2/9) may be viable for use…he looked the best I’ve seen him in years but note that I mean he went from an ‘F’ to a ‘D’…he didn’t have far to ‘up’. If Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson couldn’t make any great FF use out of him…be careful thinking this is 8-10 years ago on JG because he had a moment here. But he’s more viable now for sure. Graham hasn’t been held back by any QB issue…Graham isn’t any good anymore, hasn’t been for years. But he’s something in a sea of nothing at TE, right now.

It’s still an Anthony Miller (2-41-1/5) and Darnell Mooney (2-19-0/5) split role…and this game was neither’s finest hour. Mooney had a few chances to make his mark here and he couldn’t haul in the tough passes when needed. Miller is a WR4, a low talent WR that will have a hard time putting Mooney behind him. Not sure he ever will.

 -- Does Foles make the RBs better?

I mean, Foles is a miracle worker but he’s not that good…no one could make anything good out of this backfield.

David Montgomery (14-45-0, 2-9-0/3) is THE WORST. I want credit for seeing this before EVERYBODY in football analysis. PFF had their stats that proved his greatness coming out of college…and every analyst ran with it. Fantasy analysts drove him to be the top rookie RB taken in 2019 redrafts in late August 2019. Everyone KNEW he was going to be a star…and I didn’t know what I was talking about per many emailers in 2019.

Well, I’m not saying I have a perfect scouting record, but I was right here…all alone…not one person even thinking along my same lines…against the full power of the mega-billion dollar industry of the NFL, it’s scouts, it’s highly paid analysts – and I called all the problems exactly ahead of time before he even hit an NFL field.  https://youtu.be/lemytnFMXLE

The clock is ticking on Montgomery…this could be where Le’Veon Bell winds up. Just a guess. My real guess is -- Matt Nagy is a fool and is going to prove to you how much smarter he is in RB scouting…and he’ll go off a cliff with DM. He needs to slide out of his DM’s.

Tarik Cohen is gone, but the delicate genius Nagy wasn’t using Cohen anyway…so you won't even notice he’s gone. Cohen was getting in the way of more touches for Montgomery, as far as Nagy was concerned. ‘More Montgomery’ he likely thought as Cohen limped away for the year.

Cordarrelle Patterson (4-13-0) is their best back but doesn’t get enough touches to get going…and he’s past his prime. ‘Better than Montgomery’ is not a glowing compliment.

Ryan Nall (0-0-0) saw an uptick in snaps (to 7!!) with Cohen out. All Nall needs is a chance – but Nagy will never give him a real chance, and even if he is forced to via injuries to others…and then Nall pops…Nagy would put it back in the lock box the moment Montgomery was ready to go. Matt Nagy and Anthony Lynn vie for worst head coach personnel decision in the NFL on a weekly basis. But now Nagy has a (3-0) record that says he’s a genius. I look forward to the pending Bears downfall from here – which should bring the entire staff down with it, an epic collapse from (3-0).

Only Foles can save them.

 -- The Falcons have a devastated WR group going into Week 4…they may be without Julio Jones and Russell Gage. In their place was:

Olamide Zaccheaus (4-41-0/6), who really had some nice moments here. He’s like ‘Honey, I shrunk the A.J. Brown’…a bulldog, thick WR, very short WR who just missed 1-2 big plays on misfires by Matt Ryan. One of them a 50+ yard bomb TD he was open by 2-3 yards on.

Brandon Powell (3-27-0/4) is a discount Russell Gage.

Of the two, Zaccheaus would be of momentary interest of both Julio and Gage are out Week 4.

 -- OK, so…

Julio Jones is ruled out before the game.

Russell Gage is hurt in-game and leaves.

Another good/offensive explosion game for ATL.

…and Hayden Hurst gets 1 whole catch for 1 whole yard (but it was a TD).

I think this tells us how integrated Hurst is with Ryan…not much. It will come, but you may not have time to wait around.

 -- ATL LB Mykal Walker (7 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PDs) played well in Foye Oluokun’s place this week.

Walker is a 4th-round draft pick in 2020 out of Fresno State. 96 total tackles in his senior year/2019. 86 tackles in 2018 but also logged 13.5 TFLs and 6 PDs as well. Solid career.

A solid NFL prospect who showed he belongs in the NFL. He goes back to part-time player when Oluokun returns but could take over an LB spot before long as this defense struggles.

Snap Counts of Interest:

63 = Ridley

54 = Zaccheaus

37 = Powell

12 = Gage

06 = Blake

35 = Gurley

23 = Br Hill

06 = Ito

64 = ARob

51 = Mooney

47 = Miller

23 = Wims

46 = Montgomery

11 = CPatt

07 = Nall