- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Browns 41, Bengals 16
After the Bengals got thoroughly beaten by the Jets last week I was prepared/hoping that this was the drubbing I needed to see to dump all Bengals stock. Unfortunately, it was not. Let me explain.
The Bengals got the ball first and drove right down the field to the 1 yard line. Burrow attempted a pass for Ja'Marr Chase, but Denzel Ward played it perfectly and picked the ball off and raced 99 yards for the pick six. 7-0 Browns.
Cincy got the ball back and immediately raced right back down the field for a TD to tie it up. The Browns finally got their first offensive possession and did the same to take a 14-7 lead.
And then the dam broke. The Bengals turned the ball over after Chase fumbled the ball, and Cleveland graciously took the short field turnover and turned it into another 7 points. From this point on it was more of the same. Cincy could never get things going and Cleveland kept piling on with a brutal running game and a couple more turnovers.
It was just one of those days for the Bengals. They didn't play particularly poorly overall. It was just a lot of bad/somewhat fluky plays that went against them and turned this into a blowout.
Now the one player that did play badly, and the one almost singularly responsible for all the turnovers and thus the blowout, was Ja'Marr Chase. He had a fumble and 2 INT's that were thrown to him in coverage. Now some will say the INT's were on Burrow, but I watched both plays a few times, and I feel comfortable saying, no, they happened because Chase's early season success has gone to his head and he thinks he's the greatest wide receiver to ever play the game.
The goal line throw his route was lackadaisical and the other INT he had no separation and the ball got tipped up to a defender. Ward and Greg Newsome had absolutely no problems with him in coverage all day. I've said it all year and I'll say it again: I don't care what kinds of numbers he's put up. I've watched all his plays. He's good. He's not special, and certainly not a Randy Moss level talent. He's had an unprecedented run of good fortune with lucky plays for TD's all year and now that those plays are drying up you're left with just another ok/pretty good receiver.
So where does that leave these two teams moving forward?
Cleveland is finally getting healthy, and you see how dominant they can be. They are a good team and one you do not want to be playing in cold outdoor playoff games. They are the better version of the Colts and Titans, a power running game with competent QB play and a solid defense. If they can stay healthy they might be able to make a run at catching Baltimore for the division title. The schedule isn't easy, but I don't think Baltimore is all that great either, so it's up in the air.
The Bengals could possibly get back into the chase for the division as well, but I think they might not be quite ready for that. They are a decent offense and decent defense but probably not good enough at any one thing to take down the better teams consistently. They are good enough to beat anyone on the right day though.
Fantasy Notes
--I'm not done with bashing Ja'Marr Chase (6-49-0/13) just yet. In addition to causing/contributing to 3 turnovers here, he also flat out dropped two easy passes including a TD. This is more of the type of game you can expect from him moving forward. He isn't going to completely disappear because he's still a decently skilled receiver, is quite athletic, and is going to get a zillion targets because he's Burrow's buddy, but this game was more the reality of what he is than not. It's been the reality all year if anyone cared to actually look at what happened and not just the box score.
Yes, he'll produce decent stats the rest of the year, but if you have him I say now is the time to sell him off at astronomical prices. Don't dump him just to dump him. Get top of the line things in return for him. If you held a dynasty draft today he's without a doubt the #1 pick for almost anyone. Sell him for nothing less.
*RC NOTE: Last two games for Ja’Marr: 4.5 rec. (11.0 targets...41% catch rate), 40.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game. The recent numbers are melting to support Ross’s (and my) theory that Chase was a blip...but also that he is not a very good WR...excellent athlete, but a sloppy worker.
--The real #1 WR you want from the Bengals is Tee Higgins (6-78-0/8). Where Chase struggled with coverage all day Higgins looked much better. I'm a buyer on Higgins.
--Joe Mixon (13-64-2, 5-46-0/5) salvaged an otherwise mediocre day with 2 TD's. You won't be able to buy low on him because of it though. He's still an RB1 as long as he's healthy.
--Joe Burrow (28-40 for 282 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) had a bad fantasy day, but he's playing good football. Neither of the picks was really his fault although he probably shouldn't have thrown the one in the endzone. If he's smart he'll start fading Chase a little and spreading the ball around to Higgins, Boyd, and Uzomah more. I like what I see from his knee and his confidence. He's getting better as the season goes on and he's already been pretty good. If you need a good backup QB he'd be on my short list.
--So I guess Baker Mayfield (14-21 for 218 yards, 2 TD/0 INT) wasn't the problem huh for OBJ huh? He had no problem hooking up with Donovan Peoples-Jones (2-86-1/3) for a 60 yard score. You can consider DPJ the new #1 receiver here now although that's probably a WR2 at best for fantasy in this low volume passing attack.. He'll still probably trail Jarvis Landry (3-11-0/5) in targets but that doesn't matter. DPJ is the threat. Landry is nearly as washed up as OBJ and should be the next to go. I'm excited to see what Baker can do in 2022 with some real receivers.
--Everything else in this Cleveland offense is a random option behind Nick Chubb (14-137-2, 2-26-0/2). In my opinion he's the best pure RB in the league and a top 5 lock as long as he's healthy. He's even better with Kareem Hunt out.
*RC NOTE: And now Chubb has COVID, so we’re back to D’Ernest as the waiver wire chase guy of the week!
IDP Notes
--Anthony Walker (14 tackles, 1 sack) has been killing it this year. In the 6 healthy games he's played he has 57 tackles (9.5/g).
Snap Counts of Interest
71 = Ja'Marr Chase
59 = Tyler Boyd
57 = Tee Higgins
47 = Joe Mixon
25 = Samaje Perine
35 = Austin Hooper
35 = David Njoku
25 = Harrison Bryant
32 = Jarvis Landry
29 = Donovan Peoples-Jones
28 = Anthony Schwartz
27 = Nick Chubb
16 = D'Ernest Johnson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 10: Colts 23, Jaguars 17
The Colts got the ball first, went right down the field, the Jags halted them at the goal line three straight times, and then the Colts settled for a cheap field goal. 3-0 Indy.
The Colts stopped the Jags three-and-out next drive, then blocked their punt attempt for a defensive TD. 10-0 Colts in a blink.
The Colts stopped the Jags again, got the ball back, went right down the field and scored another TD…17-0 Colts, with still time remaining in the 1st-quarter. I thought the Colts might win 50+ to nothing at this point, as did everybody. It was a joke.
From that point on, the Jags defense whipped the arse of the Colts, and Jacksonville won the next three quarters 17-6.
Jonathan Taylor went over a 100-yards rushing in the 1st-half, but I’m not sure he had 10 yards rushing in the 2nd-half. If not for the utter nothingness of Trevor Lawrence…the worst of the five rookie QBs so far, and also if not for the inability of the Jags receivers to catch passes when Lawrence did deliver – the Jags would have won. They were driving with 2+ minutes left for a game winning TD, but Lawrence got hit running the ball midfield, coughed it up, Colts recovered…ball game.
The Jags really were in a spot to go win the game in the end after a devastating, humiliating start. Credit…credit…credit Urban Meyer, I guess, because the Jags never gave up and played with intensity and a fire and got themselves back in this game.
In the Jags’ last 8 quarters played, they’ve outplayed and outscored Buffalo and Indianapolis in seven of those 8 quarters. This team is not rolling over and dying like the Jets, Texans, or the Lions. You don’t want to play the Jags right now. Top 5 O-Line. Top 10 D-Line. Improving secondary. Bad kicker. Horrible QB and WRs. Not great all-around…but not pushovers anymore, out of nowhere really. They might win 4-5 games this season (ATL, NYJ, HOU still on schedule).
The Colts get lucky…this finesse team evaded/ducked and hid from the physical team to the final moment and hung on for a win. This Colts team is a (5-5) fraud. Wins over bottom feed teams losses anytime they face a .500+ team. Five of their next 7 games are with .500+ teams. They will finish with 8 wins tops, but possibly 7 wins. 9 wins would be their ceiling. When will teams learn about Carson Wentz as their QB?
In my 2021 NFL Draft scouting reports, I compared Trevor Lawrence to a Carson Wentz-alike at best…thus not a generational talent, not even close. Did I lie?
College Football Metrics 2022 is about two months away from the first QB reports rolling off the presses…where draft/rookie scouting magic happens.
Did I not tell you Spencer Rattler was no good this summer, in jut preview scouting? Me on one side saying he sucks. The entirety of football media and analysis and scouting was on the other side saying he was a franchise QB, #1 pick overall for the 2022 NFL Draft all summer. What can I say? https://youtu.be/L-l6tHeseDY
Unless the entirety of the football intelligentsia meant that Rattler was going to get benched partway into the college season and look to transfer in shame as their definition of a ‘franchise NFL QB’ – then they are really bad at their jobs. Also, all those same people called Trevor Lawrence ‘generational’. Not me.
What scouting side do you want to be on? Me and Ross on one side or the side with every NFL scout, NFL GM, NFL coach (assistant or head, every TV analyst, every former player turned talking head, every talk show host local and national, and every writer for the NFL or college or Fantasy on the other side? It’s a pretty loaded side on the mainstream…and all of them wrong…in lockstep...a lot.
They have one job…and they suck at it.
That girl that Urban jammed his finger up her *REDACTED*…that won’t get him fired, but Trevor Lawrence will. All of football media and analysis tried to jam their fingers up your *REDACTED* on Trevor for 3+ years leading up to 2021. Hope you turned around and smacked them in the face. There’s no better way to do so then by subscribing to CFM and FFM. That’s how you do a promo – you take Urban’s wandering, explicit finger and turn it into something beneficial.
Where was I? Oh, the Colts and Jags are not playoff teams and they do not have franchise QBs. Sorry. Wentz did have that one year where he was pretty good in output for a couple of months that they can all reference from now until eternity when Wentz is a dutiful clipboard holding backup in the league in 2023.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The best note from this game is about that Jacksonville defense. Takeaway the blocked punt score, and the Jags allowed just 16 offensive points here. They’ve allowed just one offensive TD in their last two games of play to decent (statistically) offenses…Indy and Buffalo, and they really took it to the Bills.
Is it real going forward? What was the change since 3 games ago when Geno Smith smacked them round? Can we play them for a DST ahead? Whoa, whoa, whoa…one question at a time. I know you’re excited, but let’s settle down.
Is it real going forward?
Hard to say. Something definitely is happening. It isn’t luck. There were moments in this game where a very good Colts O-Line was no match for the Jags front-four onslaught (8 QB hits registered for the Jags here). Beating Buffalo 2 weeks ago was a shock, and not lucky either…it was a pass rush assault. A return to Sacksonville is right around the corner for these guys.
If it is real, you will see them give fits to Kyle Shanahan this week…and then they should destroy Matt Ryan Week 12…then you know something is up.
The top 3 NFL defenses in least amount of passing TDs allowed this season (through Week 10):
1) Buffalo = 6 passing TDs allowed.
2) LA Rams = 10
3) Jacksonville = 11
What was the change since 3 games ago when Geno Smith smacked them around three weeks ago?
I don’t know. Myles Jack returned from injury. Former 1st-round pick Taven Bryan (1 tackle, 1 sack, 2 QB hits) seems like someone found the ‘on button’. But the only real change that I can detect is Rudy Ford (4 tackles) being moved into a ‘Joker’ type position where he’s covering WRs sometimes, playing SAF sometimes, blitzing the backfield sometimes/a lot, playing linebacker sometimes. He’s kinda playing the role Jalen Ramsey is on the Rams. Ford isn’t that great, but I see him all over the field now where he was a bit player prior. He became a full starter the last two games. An IDP upside at DB for deeper IDP leagues.
Can we play them for a DST ahead?
They are a sleeper DST/DFS play vs. SF Week 11. Let’s see if they keep this up…and then it could be game-on with hosting Atlanta Week 12.
For your FF playoff needs(?)… They face Houston Week 15, then at the NY Jets Week 16…if this is real.
-- Jamal Agnew (3-79-1, 0-0-0/5) would make me punch the wall one moment, then delight in him the next.
The bad news…no catches on 5 targets in this game.
The good news…Lawrence was forcing him the ball deep. Agnew had over 100+ air yards of passes his way but wound up with zero yards.
The bad news…Agnew had his hands on two of those 5 passes, tough-but-makeable passes, but he couldn’t hold on…a growing trend weekly with his conversion to real WR.
The good news…He’s now their best running back, showing off with a 66-yard TD run to turn this game around in the 1st-quarter. He led the Jags in rushing for the game.
Agnew doesn’t look like a great WR, yet, but he is a great athlete and the best weapon they have…so, despite the drops he’s going to keep getting the ball out of necessity…air and, now, ground. He’s a legit WR3 with upside hope.
In non-PPR, Jamal Agnew is the #25 PPG scorer at WR since Week 6 (to Wk10). That ain’t bad.
…just a tick ahead of Davante Adams…and ahead of Marquise, Amari, Diontae, Cooks, Beasley, McLaurin, Sutton in that span.
-- I have no real Colts’ notes. Their offense is the great Jonathan Taylor (21-116-1, 6-10-0/8) and Michael Pittman (5-71-0/5), and that’s it.
In a sign of what the Jags D can do, JT and MP got most of their yards in this game in the 1st-quarter…they were pretty shut down the rest of the way.
-- Colts IDP note…
DT Taylor Stallworth (4 tackles, 1 sack, 3 QB hits) has had quite the uptick the past two games…
3.0 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1.5 TFLs, 0.5 PDs, 3.0 QB hits per game the last two games after being a ghost Weeks 1-8. He played his highest snap count of 2021 in this game.
He has 3 sacks his last 2 games, and 1.5 sacks in his prior 45 NFL games.
6 QB hits his last 2 games, and 4 QB hits his prior 45 NFL games.
Blip? We’ll see.
Snap Counts of Interest:
57 = Pascal
56 = Pittman
39 = Hilton
56 = Marvin J
51 = Shenault
50 = Agnew
39 = JRob
18 = Hyde
54 = JTaylor
18 = Hines
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Cardinals 37, Rams 20
There’s not a lot anyone can say about this game. There was no nuisance to it. The Arizona Cardinals are a better football team than the Los Angeles Rams right now. Not by a lot. The Rams could totally beat the Cardinals in their next match up. But, in general, Arizona has the better team right now. The better quarterback and the better defense.
The media absolutely does not think that. They are just now waking up to the Arizona defense about two months too late. They still think the Rams are the best defense in football because the only defensive player any of them are aware of is Aaron Donald. Sometimes they reference Jalen Ramsey as a great shutdown corner, but they haven’t noticed that he’s not really playing CB this year he’s more of a linebacker. And, of course, they’re so bought and paid for on the Matt Stafford story they can’t handle the fact that Kyler Murray is just better than him…and that once again Matt Stafford just Matt Stafforded up another game. Stafford is always good but just when he’s about to grab that brass ring he’ll fall short. It’s been the story of his entire career. He looks really good playing for Los Angeles this season, but he got totally worked by the great Arizona defense at this game.
The Rams and the Cardinals are the two best teams in the NFC West. It’s just that Arizona is better, that’s all. It shouldn’t need any further explanation. I suspect Arizona will win the division but depending on injuries and the schedule the Rams are gonna be right there as well.
To me, what happened here was a statement about the toughness of the Rams football team…it’s not very tough, again. It’s pretty talented, though. But anytime opposition comes in and punches them in the face they tend to cower in the corner until the beating is over. And that’s what happened in this game. The Rams started out pretty toe to toe but Arizona kept answering every punch by the Rams with a harder punch of their own, and then the Rams stopped punching. They just looked defeated as Arizona kept up a flurry of punches until they knew the Rams were no threat to them to come back. Second half whenever the Rams were trying to get back going, Arizona would just shut it down…even missing their top CB Byron Murphy the whole 2nd-half.
The Cardinals are undefeated, but I’m not sure I would call them the best team in football yet. And it wouldn’t surprise me that they have a letdown in Week 5 confused by the wrinkle of Trey Lance. But it also wouldn’t shock me if they terrorized Trey Lance into multiple turnovers and sent his career back a year in confidence. If they do that, then maybe Arizona really is the best team in football.
Fantasy Player Notes…
— There’s not much to talk about with these two quarterbacks from this game. Kyler Murray (24-32 for 268 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT), 6-39-0) is the better all-around quarterback…and is only getting better with each passing month of NFL play.
Matt Stafford (26-41 for 280 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is a really good quarterback as well, but the Arizona defense was too much for him. Stafford is going to be fine in most matchups, but he blinked in this one.
— I’m tired of seeing Chase Edmonds (12-120-0, 4-19-0/5) fall short of the goal line and stealing easy TDs to James Conner (18-50-2). I’m also tired of mentioning it or writing about it or complaining about it. It is what it is. It happened with Kenyan Drake last year, and now it’s happening with James Conner. It’s a smart way to go because Conner is better suited to get 1-yard then the slender, wiry Edmonds.
Edmonds is fine otherwise for PPR. He’s a nice solid RB2 with hopes that a little flurry of TDs comes his way. Most likely it won’t happen, and the Edmonds will wind up with around 3-4 rushing TDs this year. I’m hoping he starts to add receiving TDs to supplement that. But Conner is the better one-yard run and Kyler Murray tends to take a lot of goal line runs too, and they like to get Rondale Moore touches near the goal line as a runner. It’s just not Chase Edmonds best role (short yardage), so we should probably stop complaining about it. It is what it is.
— Speaking of the Arizona wide receivers…
What’s wrong with DeAndre Hopkins (4-67-0/7)? He looks fine. He is still great. It’s just Kyler Murray is such an exceptional quarterback right now, and has so many options to explore and mismatches to go after… But he’s no longer leaning on Hopkins for every throw. He doesn’t have to in 2021. Kyler’s got plenty of stuff to choose from and he doesn’t seem to lean on one option like most elite QBs tend to do. Hopkins is still his main man but not to the detriment of everyone else getting targeting.
AJ Green is consistently staying relevant as an option for Kyler. Green doesn’t look very athletic. However, when Kyler dials him up a throw, even though he’s covered, Green tends to shield away his defender and ends up making a key clutch catch. It’s definitely not the AJ Green of old but he’s a reliable source for Kyler and it doesn’t seem to be falling away, but it’s not going to be WR1 work either. More WR3 off and on.
Christian Kirk (1-5-0/1) returned back to earth this week. He’s going to be one of the most difficult fantasy players to predict from one week to the next because Kyler does not lean on him like he does Hopkins or Green. Kirk is a luxury that Kyler uses and doesn’t use as he sees fit. There’s a little rhyme or reason to Kirk's targeting. Good luck trying to figure it out or use him in any given week.
Rondale Moore (3-28-0/3, 2-9-0) is getting very specific plays/touches because everyone knows how good he is with the ball in his hands. He had two carries in this game in one of them he was lined up as a legit tail back taking a carry…and he looks fantastic. He also gets tunnel screens in specific plays to try to spring him. Rondale‘s role should continue to grow but he’s not Kyler‘s #1 or #2 looks yet. Rondale is not on the field all game (yet) so he’s more of a random WR3 flyer who could have a monster game/moment at any time, but also do very little depending on the game script.
Out of nowhere Maxx Williams (5-66-1/5) seems to be one of the more trusted options for Kyle. It’s not that things are being generated for Williams…it’s more that there are so many options in an Arizona passing game and defenses can’t cover them all but when they do get good coverage or Kyler doesn’t get the matchup he wants there sits Maxx usually sitting wide-open in the middle of the field . And Kyler is making use of it. The old Kyler never even looked at the tight ends. 2021 Kyler is a much savvier quarterback. Perhaps the best vision of the field of any quarterback in the NFL. Kyler doesn’t have a 76.1% completion percentage YTD because he’s lucky.
— On the Rams side of the passing game, it’s still all about Cooper Kupp (5-64-0/13). But we just have to understand, given his low production game here, that the Arizona Cardinals have the best coverage group in the NFL so #1 WRs are not necessarily going to go off against them. Stafford was still getting after it and there were some near miss moments, so I’m not worried about Cupp at all -- it was just an Arizona thing.
Kupp being down is a reason why I think Van Jefferson (6-90-1/6) had a decent game here. Arizona so takes away the top guys that Stafford had to smartly make use of some of the alternative matchups. Jefferson is really good. He’s going to be the new Robert Woods in the near future. I just don’t think we’re there yet. But there will come a day Jefferson is a steady PPR WR2. It’s just a little too crowded today and he’s not a top look he’s just a good look for Stafford right now.
Robert Woods (4-48-1/6) hasn’t had a very good year so far. He’s the loser of the Matt Stafford sweepstakes because Stafford’s guy is Cooper Kupp. Woods is just a random WR3 with Jefferson nipping at his heels. There’s been a lot of talk about getting Woods the ball more this week, because I’m sure Woods is complaining behind the scenes. Expect Woods to have a good game Week 5 to shut him up for a while.
I’ve got my eye on Tyler Higbee (4-36-0/6) because Stafford does seem to have a pretty good connection with Higbee as an alternative to the wide receivers. And it’s a good time to consider getting Higbee on the cheap because he just had it down game but we saw that coming because Arizona may be the best team covering tight ends in the NFL. Isaiah Simmons is a shutdown coverage linebacker. It’s not Higbee‘s fault. There will be more games than not where Higbee will be able to win his matchup or slip out into coverage undetected, but against Arizona is not one of those games.
— This game for Darrell Henderson (14-89-0, 5-27-0/6) put to rest any of my punchlines about how Sean McVay hates Darrell Henderson.
This was the perfect time, with Henderson banged up, to split carries between Henderson and Michel if McVay was even thinking about a Michel turn or just a nice split. Nothing of the sort happened. In a very important key critical NFC West matchup/battle for 1st place -- they went all in on Henderson. That says a lot about McVay’s mindset on his backfield. I have no interest in Sony Michel (3-11-0) anymore for my fantasy teams outside of the randomness of having any number to RB hoping the #1 RB gets hurt. Samaje Perine is as FF-attractive as Sony Michel as a sit and hold/hope from that perspective. The Sony Michel narrative is officially dead… Until Henderson gets hurt again.
-- I thought DeAndre Hopkins might’ve had a weaker output game here because Jalen Ramsey (5 tackles, 2 PDs, 1 TFL) decided to cover him more, but that was not the case. Jalen Ramsey is still playing mostly linebacker/joker, pretty much roaming around wherever he wants to go. It makes him a very attractive DB for IDP because most people see him as a low output shut down corner. And as I’ve said for a couple of weeks now, and detailed last week, it’s not true in 2021. He is playing all over the place…and not much cover corner.
How good is that Arizona Cardinals defense? You’re starting to become a believer now, aren’t you? This upcoming week with the 49ers will be interesting because Trey Lance could be a very confusing wrinkle that no one has any real tape on…or Lance could be in over his head and serve up several pick sixes. The Cardinals defense is going to be a sweet DFS play/gamble, and an intriguing/scary play for your fantasy team. This defense is just so good that it’s hard to bet against them now. If the 49ers are missing Trent Williams for this game, that’s another feather in the cap of rolling with the Cardinals DST Week 5.
Arguably the best defense of player the Cardinals have his quarterback Byron Murphy, but he got here partway into this game and didn’t really play in the second half. Consider how amazing that is -- the Cardinals were missing their best cover corner and they even more shut down the Rams in the second half in the passing game. That’s how good and deep this Arizona defense is.
Snap Counts of Interest:
65 = Kupp
65 = Woods
46 = Van J
22 = DJax
61 = D Henderson
07 = Michel
75 = Hopkins
67 = AJG
56 = Kirk
33 = R Moore
52 = Edmonds
33 = Conner
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: 49'ers 33, Bears 22
If you think this was some kind of statement game for the 49'ers, you're dead wrong. They weren't that much better than the Bears here and mostly won because Deebo Samuel broke another long play for a near TD. That one play sparked the team to wake up and they finished strong, but before that play they were getting their butts kicked by a pretty bad Chicago team.
The Bears led 13-9 at halftime having outplayed the 49'ers thoroughly. They would increase that lead to 16-9 shortly thereafter, but Deebo's long catch and run got SF back into it making the score 16-15. That event seemed to spark SF into action and they began a scoring fest that the Bears could not keep up with.
The main engine of their offense now is Elijah Mitchell and the running game. I'll discuss Mitchell more below (as I know several people were mad at me over it last week and probably thinking I know nothing after this game), but, in short, it's some incredible blocking by the line that is making this thing go (that and a dying Bears defense).
SF is essentially a .500 team. They are tied for 16th in scoring offense and are a mediocre 22nd on defense (the defense isn't getting better. They just gave up 22 to a terrible Chicago offense). They haven't even played a difficult schedule either with games against the Lions, Eagles, and Seahawks mixed in. They seem to play to their competition's level. They had to stave off a Lions comeback, got lucky to beat the Eagles, did lose to the Seahawks, but then they hung in games against much better teams like the Packers and Cardinals too. Overall, they aren't a bottom 10 team by any stretch, but they aren't a playoff caliber group either.
The Bears definitely are a bottom 5 team though. Their offense is 2nd worst behind only the dumpster fire in Houston, and the defense is currently 20th but getting worse every day. They are 3-5 and will be lucky to get to 5 or 6 wins. It's possible they won't win another game all year looking at the schedule.
Fantasy Notes
--Kyle Shanahan is going to show you...he's going to show all of you! Jimmy Garoppolo (17-28 for 322 0 TD/0 INT, 5-4-2) is a good QB and he was right to start him over Trey Lance all along!
It's weird, Lance is Shanahan's hand-picked guy and yet because the media is saying starting Jimmy is a mistake, now Kyle feels he has to prove everyone wrong by giving more playing time to the guy he wanted to replace…
Strange thing in this game, Kyle called two option read QB keepers near the goal line with Jimmy. I think that could be Kyle trying to get the offense used to running those plays for when he does finally pull the plug on Jimmy. He just can't do it now because he has to show he was right first. I don't know. The guy is an egotistical lunatic.
I would expect Lance to make his debut against the Jaguars if the 49'ers get smacked down by the Cardinals and Rams the next two weeks. If Kyler is out and the 49'ers pull the upset that could delay Lance a few more weeks...
--Ok, Elijah Mitchell (18-137-1). Yes, he had another good game. Yes, he is the lone RB taking carries for SF right now. No, that does not mean he's automatically going to run for 100 yards and a TD every single week. First of all, it's not so much that Mitchell is an amazing unicorn RB. The offensive line is blowing holes open for him, the same as they've blown holes open for every decent runner over the years. It's a function of the offense, and it's working so I get riding it while it's useful. I've been for that.
What I'm warning against though is that the last two games have been against the average to bad run defenses of the Colts and Bears. The Cardinals aren't going to be so kind, and the Rams might not allow SF to run as much if they are down by 20 points. Either way, Mitchell has averaged 5.9 and 7.6 ypc in those two games, and you simply can't count on that continuing, nor can you count on getting a TD every game. Those two factors should happen about every other game or so. What happens when you don't get them? You're left with 17 carries for 67 yards. He doesn't get any catches to prop him up.
I get that you have to play him for the moment and there will be some really nice games, but everyone acting like they've hit the jackpot and lucked into a top 5 RB is likely mistaken. In addition, Jeff Wilson is coming back this week, and while he's not some amazing back, it's entirely possible that Kyle starts rotating these guys like he's done so much the past 3 years. It's definitely something to think about.
I'm not trying to rain on any parades, and I'm not saying to trade Mitchell away (although personally I would consider it). I just want people to think rationally about what they've got here and how the situation could change very quickly. Mitchell is not a foolproof asset the way Kamara or Zeke are. He's good for the moment, but it's important we don't get carried away with our expectations.
--Deebo Samuel (6-171-0/9) is the luckiest receiver outside of Ja'Marr Chase this season. The guy has at least three very long receptions that were fluky/bs. I know he's a good player. I've always liked Deebo. The point is he's been more fortunate than he is good so far, and the good times aren't likely to last. This is a low volume passing game and is about to get Kittle back healthy in addition to Aiyuk starting to reemerge (we'll get to that below). I fully expect Samuel's value to come back down to earth very quickly. RC has been warning of this for weeks and we're in the last chances to move on from him. I agree with RC's assessment. Trade him while he's super hot and has a top 3 WR valuation from the masses.
--Brandon Aiyuk (4-45-0/7) has been a literal ghost on the season. We've covered this several times and I have warned in past weeks about trying to buy him low because he was so obviously in Kyle's doghouse for whatever reason. Well, it's safe to say that he's out of it now. This is what OC Mike McDaniel had to say about Aiyuk this past week:
“These last couple of weeks he’s looked like the player that we envisioned when we drafted him," offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel said. "He’s a young guy that’s finally starting to understand what it means to be a pro and to approach every practice like, ‘Hey, I’m determining the game on Wednesday. I’m winning the game on Thursday.’ That’s been the difference.”
In this game Aiyuk was definitely part of the game plan. Jimmy was looking for him early and often, although still the obvious 2nd guy behind Deebo. He had shots at two touchdowns that just missed. He's about to start producing. What he produces is hard to say. He's still the number two guy on a low volume passing game, and George Kittle is coming back as well.
Last year when Aiyuk put up big numbers, it was because Deebo was out with injuries. Unless that happens this year, I have a hard time seeing how Aiyuk is going to be a radical producer for fantasy. The most likely result in most games is going to be about what he got here, 4 catches for 50 yards or so, and a TD every 3rd game maybe. Add it all up and it's not that impressive. The best approach with him, if you have the roster space, would be to snatch him up and trade him off after his first big game because that's all it will take for the masses to assume that he's a star again.
--I've addressed it a few times, but Kittle's return likely just muddies the waters even more for the top three guys here. I want no part of this passing game while everyone is healthy.
--On the Bears side, it was Damien Williams, not Khalil Herbert (23-72-0), that was in the game first. This coaching staff is beyond idiotic. They've seen what Herbert can do for weeks and yet they insist on giving boring ass Williams the first crack at starting here.
Luckily for them Williams promptly hurt himself and Herbert was forced to take over again. Williams didn't practice Thursday, but David Montgomery is eligible to return this week. He hasn't practiced in weeks however, so it's unclear if he will be ready in time. If Montgomery can't go Herbert will get another full workload.
That scenario is precisely what I'm rooting for as Herbert looks pretty great. Don't be fooled by the box score here. Herbert had another 40-50 scrimmage yards called back for various stupid penalties. He's not the greatest athlete I've ever seen, but he's just another natural runner that just plays the game well. He kind of looks like a smaller Matt Forte to me.
Watching Herbert and Mitchell across from each other was interesting. They are both smart, crafty runners, but on paper you'd expect Mitchell to be more explosive, and I just don't see that. They look fairly similar, but Mitchell is getting incredible blocking right now and I find myself favoring Herbert as a talent. Either way, ride both of them for as long as you can. They are both just fine in their respective situations.
--I just do not like Justin Fields (19-27 for 175, 1 TD/1 INT, 10-103-1) as a QB, but I have to respect him for fantasy now because he has FINALLY started to run. Why he didn't do this more before, I have no idea, but he's running now and that means good things for fantasy. He's still a very limited passer so you can't get too crazy, but he's a nice bye week streamer.
I see a lot of people call Fields a better passing version of Jalen Hurts, but I radically disagree with that assessment. He is capable of some amazing throws (like his TD pass here), but it's far too rare for my tastes, and he's really jumpy in the pocket and crumbles under pressure (think Tua). Hurts doesn't give a rat's ass about the pass rush and will stand in there and deliver the pass. Fields gets scared and will fling up a wounded duck the second anyone gets close to him.
--Fields's best friend is still Darnell Mooney (6-64-0/9) and not Allen Robinson (3-21-0/4). I know that sounds weird and it's taking people a long time to catch up to. It's true though. As Fields starts to run more I also expect his passing numbers to improve as teams will start backing up for fear of him taking off. When that happens then it's time to jump on Mooney for redraft. Trying to time these things is nearly impossible, so if you have the room I'd grab him now. Pretty soon he's going to crack 100 yards and a TD and it'll be too late. I'd much rather have Mooney than Aiyuk for redraft.
IDP Notes
--DeAndre Houston-Carson (6 tackles) has 17 total the last two games after being elevated to a starting role. I don't see anything amazing from him, just a warm body making a lot of run tackles as teams jammed the ball down this defense's throat.
--Josh Norman (7 tackles, 1 INT) has 23 tackles the past three weeks and is working quite nicely for fantasy precisely because he's not a very good corner anymore and is allowing a ton of short completions. His INT wasn't a great play either. He just happened to be in the right place for a tipped pass to bounce right to him to end the game. Play it if it works I guess, but I feel like there are a ton of safeties putting up similar numbers available on waivers. Corners are hard to count on.
Snap Counts of Interest
56 = Allen Robinson
54 = Darnell Mooney
30 = Marquise Goodwin
59 = Khalil Herbert
7 = Ryan Nall
63 = Cole Kmet
38 = Jesse James
49 = Brandon Aiyuk
46 = Deebo Samuel
25 = Mohamed Sanu
36 = Elijah Mitchell
19 = JaMycal Hasty
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Panthers 19, Falcons 13
I just watched two of the dullest games in the NFL this season, back-to-back for my workday…CLE-PIT then this mess, CAR-ATL. The Computer had a terrible week picking games ATS in Week 8, but it’s rolling on ‘best bets’ and picking underdogs to outright upset/cover – and Carolina was our top bet and outright win call, so at least we got that one.
I wanna say Carolina was lucky to win here, but they were/are better than the Falcons, but Sam Darnold and Chuba Hubbard are so nothing that they can hardly score points, so the games are always too close…but then their ace defense keeps them in games for potential wins against bad opponents – and the Falcons are one of the worst teams in the NFL.
So, two teams wobbled around on offense…and the one with the better defense got the lead and held because the QBs in this game are two of the worst in the NFL.
With this win, Carolina breaks a 4-game losing streak and gets back to .500 (4-4) – and now they play a very pivotal game (for both teams) this week hosting (4-4) New England. The winner has some wild card hopes, for sure. The loser has a lot of work to do to try and scramble into the wild card. We project Carolina to end up with 7-8 wins, but Christian McCaffrey’s return (or not) can alter those hopes. Week 9 is huge vs. NE, a very similar team to CAR…almost identical.
The Falcons fall to (3-4) and are about to fade away in the NFC. They project to finish around 5 wins if they’re lucky.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Falcons are so poorly run/schemed by Arthur Smith (not a genius).
Cordarrelle Patterson (9-35-0, 5-37-1/5) is so clearly their best player, one of the most electric/effective players in the NFL, so it only stands to reason that in a must-win game, a game where with a win you actually had some playoff life – that Art Smith (not a genius…or ‘NAG’ for short) throttles back CP for a heavy dose of Mike Davis (9-44-0, 5-22-0/6) here.
I’m not anti-Mike Davis, but if I were an HC/O-C for the Falcons in Week 8 – I could not get the ball to CP enough in a critical game that was winnable. NAG didn’t, so they lost…big shock.
Patterson is not at any FF-risk, it wasn’t like CP didn’t play or get his touches – just, you’d think they’d lean into this more – but NAG is nickname = not a genius, so he loses a key game and can go back to designing boring, ineffective plays and eating meatball sandwiches for breakfast all week.
The answer to the reason for all the Titans offensive success of late – was it Ryan Tannehill or Arthur Smith? The answer = Derrick Henry.
-- Cordarrelle is one of the best weapons in all the NFL, and Kyle Pitts (2-13-0/6) is already the best receiving tight end weapon in football. It took about 6 weeks, but it’s already true.
Whenever Pitts gets a target, there are a minimum of two guys around him…and possibly 4-5 in the camera shot. Christian McCaffrey catches 100+ passes a year with no defender in camera shot. Cooper Kupp has no one in camera shot on him 80% of his catches this season. A rookie TE is already the most covered/planned-for player in the NFL.
Pitts is an amazing physical talent, but he’s not ready to beat constant double teams…especially when NAG has no real scheme or plays to get him open. Weeks 1-4, Pitts was just running 1970s tight end routes…short route, sit down over the middle, face the QB. Now, Pitts is just on the outside working like he’s LAC WR big Mike Williams, complete with #1 corners on him…losing his ‘great mismatch’ ability so that linebackers aren’t on him, corners are…with safeties over the top.
Matt Ryan (20-27 for 146 yards, 1 TDs/2 INTs), who is as bad as Big Ben now, just flings prayers out to Pitts…which worked the past few weeks when he was more single covered but this game the prayers were not answered, and Pitts was blanketed.
Pitts will be fine, but elite consistency is probably a year and a new QB away.
-- It would help Pitts, if Calvin Ridley (DNP) were playing…to take these #1 CBs away. Stephon Gilmore was covering Pitts on the final drive where ATL was trying to win it with a TD drive – and it ended with a terrible pass from Ryan to Pitts, picked by Gilmore.
When is Ridley going to return? I don’t know, but it’s at least 4 weeks away as he was played on the NFI list this week.
Bad week for Alabama wide receivers…
Tajae Sharpe (5-58-0/6) takes over for Ridley, but if you think Sharpe is going to do much for you for FF…you’re insane. Ryan wasn’t getting Ridley over in 2021, so he’s not going to get Sharpe over. The target pecking order for Ryan is: Pitts, Patterson, Mike Davis, then randomly everything else.
Here’s how bad Ryan is…his best WR, with Ridley gone, is Russell Gage (0-0-0/0) -- and Gage played the most snaps of any WR this game for ATL…and never saw a target. Good luck with your cut-by-20-different-teams Tajae for Fantasy!
-- Ok, let’s switch gears from how poorly the Falcons offense is run to how poorly the Panthers offense is planned…
Chuba Hubbard (24-82-1, 1-9-0/2) is every generic RB in the NFL. Perfectly, cromulent but not a star…strikes no fear into defenses, and you could get the same performances from 50 other RBs not-starting in the NFL.
BUT Chuba Hubbard is Matt Rhule’s wife’s favorite player – so, Hubbard is the future for Carolina. I guarantee Rhule would be happy to ditch McCaffrey’s giant payroll, deploy the money elsewhere and go with Hubbard as his lead back.
And if you don’t think Rhule is capable of that kind of offensive stupidity…have you seen what he is doing, on purpose, at QB? Do you trust his offensive eye?
Hubbard fumbled the opening touch, setting up ATL for a quick lead. Next series, Hubbard right out there again. Newly signed Ameer Abdullah (8-31-0, 3-35-0/5) came in and took touches after a few Hubbard touches, and Abdullah instantly provided a spark with chunk runs moving at a speed that was like you hit the fast-forward button on Hubbard running the ball.
Seeing that, Rhule quickly got Abdullah out of there and went with more Hubbard…and his 3.6 yards per carry this season.
I want to like the Panthers, but Darnold-Hubbard is the worst QB-RB combo in the league…worse than Tua-Gaskin.
-- Rookie TE Tommy Tremble (3-18-0/4) is slowly climbing the ladder of trusted TE option in the passing game. He’s averaged 3.0 targets per game the past 4 weeks as a 40-55% of the snap playing TE. He’s ever so slightly becoming the Panthers lead TE. He’s not there yet, but it’s heading that way.
The last 4 games, Tremble has 7 catches (1.8 per game) for just 42 yards (10.5 per game)…so we’re not close for FF, but he’s someone to keep any eye on going into 2022. Ace blocker, easy short pass for Darnold…and some athleticism after the catch (he’s run the ball twice this season, FYI…for a TD and for a 2-point conversion).
-- The Panthers defense is so good right now…it’s a shame the offense won’t support it.
Shaq Thompson (10 tackles,1 TFL, 1 PD) is back and playing his best ball of his career.
Stephon Gilmore (2 tackles, 1 INT) debuted and sealed the win with a pick late…only playing 32% of the snaps in the game.
Thompson fully back. Gilmore arrived. Rookie CB Keith Taylor (2 tackles) impacting. Jeremy Chinn an all-Pro level safety. Haason Reddick and Brian Burns a top 1-2 punch in sacks. This is a really promising defense…potentially best in the biz in 2022-2023 with Jaycee Horn back.
You might get a nice 4-week run with Carolina ahead…NE, at ARI (if Kyler out), WSH, and at MIA before a Week 13 bye.
-- Carolina kicker Zane Gonzalez (4/4 FGs, 1/1 XP) is suddenly on fire. He hit a 51 and 57-yard FG in this game. He’s 10-for-his-last-10 FG attempts…averaging 2.5 FGs made per game the past 4 weeks. This season, he’s 10-for-10 in all FG attempts under 50 yards.
Snap Counts of Interest:
46 = I Thomas
34 = Tremble
22 = Colin Thompson
41 = Hubbard
22 = Abdullah
11 = Freeman
44 = Pitts
33 = Hurts
18 = Lee Smith
34 = Mk Davis
32 = C Patt
36 = Gage
36 = Sharpe
21 = Zacchaeus
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Broncos 17, Football Team 10
I kept pushing this game study to the end all week, choosing other Week 8 games I thought had more FF-relevance…until I was left with one game left watch/study = WSH v DEN. Little did I know I would have more notes here then any other game this week, or in weeks…and that I’d spend more time getting with contacts to try and glean some rumors/insight into things (which we’ll get to in a moment).
As far as this game itself…a slog. Decent defenses suppressing bad offenses. Denver scored late/last. Washington drove to the red zone for a chance to tie with the clock running out, but they failed to punch it in.
Denver is now (4-4)…a really weak team with a bunch of garbage wins, but (4-4) nonetheless. They have a chance to win 9 games, but more likely they’ll wind up around 7-8. When they traded Von Miller, they signaled to this team that ownership quits on them…so, I’m sure the players will reciprocate the ‘quitting’ mentality ahead.
Washington falls to (2-6)…their season was over a long time ago. But if it wasn’t obviously over before, it is now. And that’s going to be important to keep in mind when I get to the first player note below…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The next segment/note is not a guarantee, but is me working through a theory that I think is likely to play out or is being positioned to play out (an unexpected injury could change anything) and thus we need to act upon it in some way (if I’m right).
Let’s just start with the headline statement, and then layout a case to support it: I think Washington is looking to shutdown Antonio Gibson (8-34-0, 3-20-0/3) in the next 2-3 weeks, and that they are preparing for Jaret Patterson (11-46-0, 0-0-0/1) to work with J.D. McKissic (3-10-0, 8-83-0/8) to finish out the season.
Why?
Because Gibson has multiple injuries he’s been working through (most notably a stress fracture in his shin), so why keep putting him out there taking hits on it and putting pressure on it when they can shut him down and let him heal up for 2022? The best way to deal with a stress fracture of the shin is 4-8+ weeks off.
It’s either that, or Washington is committed to managing Gibson’s reps because of all the injuries…and that means more Patterson then usual and less Gibson than normal.
You need look no further than the start (and all) of this game for clues…
Washington’s first series (in parentheses, which RB was in)
Play 1 = Gibson, McKissic (target)
Play 2 = Gibson (run)
Play 3 = McKissic (target)
Play 4 = Patterson (run)
Play 5 = Patterson
Play 6 = Patterson (run)
Play 7 = Patterson (run)
Play 8 = McKissic (run)
Play 9 = 4th & 1/Gibson (WSH failed to convert)
The first nine offensive plays…
Patterson in 4 times with 3 carries. Gibson in 3 times with one carry. McKissic in three times, touched the ball each time (run/pass).
This is a seismic shift in the Washington backfield. In a key game (Washington trying to cling to NFC East and wild card hopes with a win), and with that Washington thought it the appropriate time to push Patterson in early…and often.
Prior weeks, Gibson ran as a starter and would switch off-and-on with McKissic, usually on 3rd-downs and all hurry-up offenses, and then Patterson would play only a snap or two (or zero) sprinkled in for the whole game. But here, Patterson was the main ball carrier on the first drive…not a guy taking useless carries late, or getting touches because Gibson left with injury – this was a Patterson push.
Perhaps, it was just a surprise attack for Denver? Which makes little sense, given the game and the context…but maybe. What about the 2nd Washington series?
Play 1 = Gibson
Play 2 = Gibson (target)
Play 3 = Gibson (run)
Play 4 = McKissic
Play 5 = Patterson (run)
Play 6 = Patterson (run)
Play 7 = McKissic
Play 8 = Gibson (target)
Play 9 = Gibson (run)
Play 10 = Gibson
Play 11 = McKissic
After two series…
9 snaps, 3 carries, two targets = Gibson
6 snaps, 5 carries, no targets = Patterson
6 snaps, 1 carry, two targets = McKissic
The (close) game would end with final tallies of…
23 snaps, 8 carries, 3 targets = Gibson
16 snaps, 11 carries, no targets = Patterson
32 snaps, 3 carries, 8 targets (team high) = McKissic
Patterson was flowed/thrust right into the offense. It wasn’t forced by in-game injury…Gibson played all game and was in on the last snaps of the game. It wasn’t forced by blowout, and Patterson got late work just because. This was a sustained plan all game.
It’s one of three things…
1) This is the new offense/RB flow because Ron Rivera likes Patterson better than Gibson.
or
2) This was just a one game blip to help Gibson get to the bye week for extra time off. Why even play him at all, then?
or
3) This was prepping Patterson for the future and scaling back Gibson for his own health. And if that’s true, I think it might be Washington’s plan to continue to scale back Gibson and in another 1-2 losses, they put him on IR for the rest of the season to heal him up for 2022/keep him safe from 2021.
Remember a few weeks ago when it was said that Gibson’s shin injury would get worse as the season wore on, and that they needed to manage him and possibly shut him down?
You know what the WFTs were doing a few weeks ago? Trying out running backs. D’Onta Foreman, and the RB they signed a few days ago, a guy who has been with them prior – Wendell Smallwood. The wagons are circling around Gibson, one way or the other.
If I’m reading this situation right, then there is some FF work to do…
1) If you own Antonio Gibson in redraft, you gotta get off of him ASAP – and he has some trade value, especially this bye week where people think he’s resting/healing up. Early in the week, I thought it might be wise to hold too, and see if rest of a bye week would help him, but now I’m seeing and hearing about (from my contacts, not the mainstream) writing on the wall for a shutdown…best case, he’s on managed reps the rest of the way.
2) You will read this, and I know you’re gonna wanna go rush out and grab Jaret Patterson because rookies are magical unicorns but consider that Gibson was doing squat as the lead main back for Washington – it’s a bad offense getting worse with every OL injury, and they just lost their starting center for the season. Patterson will assume a 10-12 carries and 0-2 targets role, projected…and 50 total yards a game with 0-1 catches and no TDs will not be great for FF…unless you’re in a deep league with no RBs left to work with.
You don’t trust, or find boring, Elijah Mitchell…and he’s producing 100+ yard games with a good O-Line…but somehow Patterson seems WAY better in a much worse environment? This is not a call to arms on Patterson.
3) The winner here is J.D. McKissic, in PPR. As Washington’s season and O-Line dies, they will be forced to throw more and more…and that’s JD time.
Weeks 1-5: McKissic has averaged 3.6 targets per game
Weeks 6-8: McKissic has averaged 8.0 targets per game (as Gibson’s play time is being reduced in this stretch)
You can get McKissic for a song/cheap during this bye week, I bet…I know. And you want him in PPR.
Snap count % this season by WSH RB (starting with Week 1)…
36, 44, 46, 40, 41, 61, 64, 46 = McKissic
65, 61, 57, 55, 57, 39, 42, 33 = Gibson
07, 00, 00, 07, 06, 03, 01, 23 = Patterson
-- Speaking of Washington things to panic sell…Terry McLaurin (3-23-0/7), but I’ve been pushing for this sale for weeks, and now my worst fears are happening/locking in the past few weeks.
It’s not his fault, it’s the offense’s. There’s not enough blocking for Heinicke to have time to wait for TML deep patterns to go through.
4-4-7-3 for catches in games in the last four games for McLaurin. Three of the 4 under 50 yards receiving with one TD (and the TDs are almost always strokes of luck/hail mary-ish throws).
I don’t know how this situation improves for Terry with their center now gone and the threat of Gibson being lost in the run game.
-- Courtland Sutton (2-40-0/4) has a similar but not as bad issue with his offense/QB. Sutton is fine, but if you can leverage him hot, I’d do it. He gets Trevon Diggs this week, then Darius Slay, then the shutdown pass D of the Chargers.
-- Albert Okwuegbunam (3-43-0/3) looked like the #1 TE and most desired weapon here…if I didn’t know better. I know Noah Fant (2-8-0/4) is still the main man TE, but Albert O. returning from IR took some touches from Fant.
If Fant is out with COVID this week, Albert O. is a legit sleeper/DFS play. He’s really very promising.
-- No shift in the Gordon v. Javonte sweepstakes. Still a split, with Gordon getting the better activity, slightly.
-- Logan Thomas does not need to be kept with an iron first, but good to hold if you can (if your TE situation is shaky). When he returns, probably Week 10-11…he’s a back-end TE1 hopeful in this messy offense.
-- Washington IDP notes…
Montez Sweat (0 tackles, 2 QB hits) is out for a month+ with injury. James Williams-Smith (3 tackles, 1 sack) will pick up extra snaps, but he’s nowhere near Sweat’s talent.
Landon Collins (8 tackles, 2 TFLs) since moving to linebacker the last three games: 7.3 tackles, 1.33 TFLs per game. He looks quick and energized at linebacker/joker.
-- Denver IDP notes…
Baron Browning (8 tackles, 1 TFL) was pushed into a starting ILB role this game and had a decent output. He may be in that spot for a while. It looks like Justin Strnad (4 tackles) has failed to capture the role. I think Browning is a ‘meh’ talent, but he’s got draft stock…and now playing time.
Malik Reed (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks) will try to be the pass rush force with Von Miller gone. I’ve never been a huge fan, but he gets more opportunities now as well.
Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = Fant
26 = Albert O.
30 = Gordon
23 = Javonte
32 = McKissic
23 = Gibson
16 = Patterson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Steelers 15, Browns 10
This was a typical AFC North slog…and not in a good way, just two boring teams with boring offenses and good defenses traded punts all day and the team that got unlucky with penalties at the wrong time and the one that didn’t have OBJ drop a pass that would have given them 1st & goal with a few minutes left to take the lead, is the one that lost.
Neither team played particularly well or poorly, it’s just their two solid defenses outplayed the weaker offenses and kept the scoring down and the Steelers caught the breaks at the right time and stole it.
The Browns are now (4-4), losers of three of their last 4. They didn’t have Denzel Ward here, which was big. They didn’t have Kareem Hunt, who I think is the heart & soul of their offense. They didn’t have Donovan Peoples-Jones, who is probably their best receiver now. They also had an O-Line injury to further set them back. The Browns are better than the Steelers, but Pitt got the win…and now the Browns have a key game with Cincy Week 9 and then face Baltimore two times in the following 4 games.
The Browns are projecting to land around 9 wins, which likely won’t be good enough to win the AFC North.
The Steelers are somehow (4-3) now…winners of three straight. They will be favored in their next two games (CHI and DET). If they book those home wins, they will be (6-3) and in the AFC North hunt. We still project them at 8-9 wins, closer to the 8-win mark. If they can get to 9 wins then they got a shot at a wild card. They won’t go anywhere if they get there.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The biggest news involving a player from this game has nothing to do with this game, and that’s the Odell Beckham (1-6-0/1) saga.
I’ve said that the OBJ trade was terrible for Cleveland from the jump, and then it was beyond obvious the offense was better without him as we saw this play out the past three years – but the Browns persisted on keeping him. They should’ve cut him before this season for the sake of the locker room and the offense…because you knew this day was coming.
OBJ, through his dad, complained about the WR not getting throws from Baker when he was open. It’s a simple explanation for the lack of throwing to OBJ – Baker is smart, he can’t have any faith in OBJ actually catching the ball if he is wide open. With about 5 minutes to go in this game, down 5, Baker planted a laser beam about 30 yards downfield, over the middle to Odell down around the Steelers’ five-yard line…but, of course, he dropped it…looking around to see where the hit is coming (bailed out by a penalty elsewhere to negate the play from the history books.
Beckham’s career is over…he hasn’t had the heart or mental capacity to play for years going back to the Giants final years. He doesn’t deserve to be on an NFL field, and now he won’t be. The smart thing for the Browns to do is set him inactive every game, pay him not to play…don’t cut him and allow him to go to KC or PIT or BAL or anywhere in the AFC to bite you if he gets a spark of trying/effort.
But it appears they are going to cut him, and he’ll go wherever he’s wanted/tolerated…to go and ruin their locker room. I thought the Browns might pay him not to play, but honestly, maybe it’s smart – let him go to an AFC foe to sink their ship through the cancer that is OBJ.
His career is just about over. Thank God. Now, maybe the Browns can win some games.
In the last two seasons, the Browns are (7-5) in regular season games OBJ has played 20% or more of the snaps in a game. They are (9-3) in regular season games with him out/less than 20% of the snaps.
As a Brown, OBJ has caught 56%, 54%, and this year 50.0% of his targets in a season.
-- The best WR on the Browns has been Donovan Peoples-Jones (DNP) this season, and he had been getting better and better – and just as he was really taking off (4.5 rec., 85.5 yds, 1.0 TDs last two games), he got hurt (groin) pregame Week 7 and didn’t play and then missed Week 8 because of it…so, he seems out of sight out of mind.
Don’t forget him. He’s coming back to be a true #1 with OBJ out of the way. The Browns aren’t a high-volume passing game, so it might not be that amazing, but it has WR2 chances…maybe.
Jarvis Landry is just a WR3 who has WR2 moments from time-to-time now.
FYI…Baker Mayfield (20-31 for 225 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) did not show any affect from his shoulder injuries. He looked 100% normal, fine. He’s not an issue in the passing game…and I think DPJ is going to be his BFF WR ahead.
-- Big Ben (22-34 for 266 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) played about as well as he’s going to play in 2021, in this game. He barely gets his one TD pass per game these days. He got his one here on a 4th & goal, late, forced throw, tipped up by Pat Freiermuth (4-44-1-/7) and caught by him a blink ahead of stepping out of bounds.
Ben was barely headed to getting over 200 yards passing in this game until a late game dump pass to Diontae Johnson (6-98-0/13) turned a 50-yard catch and run iced the game.
Ben has no upside, and his fade is putting FF-pressure on Dionte, among others. I’m worried we’re gonna see a bunch of 6 catch, 50 yard, no TD games ahead for Diontae. I’m a Diontae seller HIGH not a PANIC-DUMP.
Pat Freiermuth (4-44-1/7) has become Ben’s second favorite target now…7 targets in each of his last two games for Patty F. Chase Claypool (2-16-0, 3-29-0/3) is fading off into about one more week before we all start saying – should I keep him in redraft (12-team/17-man roster)?
-- Najee Harris (26-91-1, 3-29-0/3) is volum-ing his way to FF goodness, as expected. 23-24-26 carries in a game his last 3 games…4.0 yards per carry in that stretch, 3.7 ypc on the season.
-- The Steelers defense is really sold/good, and the next two weeks with CLE-DET, both at PIT, is going to be great for DST scoring, so you’d think. Then a rougher schedule the rest of the way…likely unusable (with confidence) the rest of the way.
-- I think the Browns have just as good a defense, if they are at full strength, as the Steelers. However, they have a messy schedule ahead for DST usage. Weeks 10-11 at NE, DET is the last real usage.
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = Chubb
18 = D’E Johnson
09 = Felton
58 = Freiermuth
45 = Gentry
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Bills 26, Dolphins 11
I'd like to be able to say that the score of this game was closer than the actual result...but that would be the opposite of the truth. The truth is that the Dolphins came to play and gave the Bills all they could handle for three quarters. The dam finally broke in the late 3rd, early 4th and the Bills pulled away, but until then it was an absolute dogfight.
I walk away from this game highly impressed by Miami's defense. They were all over the Bills, pressuring Allen, defending passes, even stopping the run for the most part. There were only two things they struggled to contain a little bit. 1) Josh Allen running plays and 2) Cole Beasley in the slot. Once the Bills finally figured out that was how to beat Miami they went heavy with those two concepts and scored twice to give themselves an insurmountable lead.
The final Bills score came on a Tua interception as he was trying to make a play with just a couple minutes left. Without that turnover the Bills would not have covered the spread. I don't think that's any reflection on the Bills though. I think this was Miami trying to rise up.
Buffalo keeps right on rolling down the road to the #1 seed in the AFC. They are far and away the best team in that conference in my opinion and probably the best team in the league. We're halfway through the year and they are still the #1 scoring offense and #1 scoring defense. My one knock on them is that they've played a rather weak schedule of defenses so far and have fallen to two of the tougher teams they've played, Tennessee and Pittsburgh, two teams they should have beaten. Combine that with the Dolphins defense making their offense look mortal here, and I'm starting to worry just a little bit about how good this offense really is.
I'll say this about the offense though, Josh Allen is absolutely carrying it 100% and he would likely be my vote for MVP right now. That guy is unbelievable.
Miami certainly played a tough game here. They had been getting spanked on defense for weeks because they couldn't stop anyone on the ground, but they really played that well here. Maybe it's just a fluke, but if the defense continues playing like this every week they are going to fight their way into a few wins. The schedule is still rather tough though, so I'm not sure how many more wins they could get. I think they probably top out at 5 or 6 max.
Fantasy Notes
--I said Josh Allen (29-42 for 249 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 8-55-1) was my vote for MVP and I meant it. He's back to leading the team in rushing which is exactly what you want for fantasy. Miami was all over the passing game and made him work for every inch here. Allen didn't blink and kept on firing into tight windows, willing his team down the field. I can't state enough how impressed I am watching him play QB. The jump he's made the last 3-4 years is beyond anything I thought was possible.
--Unfortunately though, with Allen's continued improvement as a QB, that is taking away from Stefon Diggs (5-40-0/7) in fantasy because Allen doesn't have to force it to Diggs every other play. I think Diggs will start to come on a little more soon, but there are still a lot of good pass defenses on the schedule, a lot of good CB's, and Diggs is proving to be mortal this year. I think you just have to hold with him and pray a turn comes.
--Cole Beasley (10-110-0/13) continues to be an up and down performer based on matchup. You want to play him in weeks where the outside cornerbacks are very good but the slot is weaker and where the Bills have to throw a lot to stay in the game.
--Emmanuel Sanders got completely shut out here, but I wouldn't panic on him. He's usually the #2 look behind Diggs and hasn't even been far off of Diggs's production. Sanders is the deep threat, so his average is going to be something like 3-4 catches for 50 yards and a shot at a TD but there will be lots of ups and downs. He had a rough matchup here with Byron Jones that's all.
--Tommy Sweeney (3-30-0/4) is no Dawson Knox replacement. He's your average TE, capable of catching passes thrown his way a couple times a game but doesn't provide much else.
--Somehow now Zach Moss (8-19-0, 6-39-0/7) has become the pass catching back over Devin Singletary. I don't like it or agree with it, as I haven't all year, but that's the reality now. He also gets the goal line touches, so he's Buffalo's version of James Conner, except Allen takes more short TD's than Kyler is right now.
--I'm growing to have a grudging respect for Tua Tagovailoa (21-39 for 205, 0 TD/1 INT, 4-10-1). I know, I know. He's not my favorite, but I have to admit he's getting better. The mistakes are becoming rarer and rarer and he just dices defenses up with all these short passes. Seems simple enough to stop, but nobody has really done it yet. Buffalo was in his face all day and not giving him much room to throw, but he handled it well, better than I've ever seen.
Regardless of his real world talents, he's definitely been working pretty well for fantasy, and I see no reason why that would change. He's played four full games this year, scored 15 and 16 points against the very good defenses of the Bills and Patriots, and scored 20+ against the Falcons and Jaguars. He's a good #2 guy, someone you can stream against weaker defenses.
--The top WR for Tua is still Jaylen Waddle (4-29-0/11). These two are slicing and dicing most weeks. The Bills defense was all over it however. I love buying Waddle as an undervalued WR2 but only in ppr.
--RC's best friend DeVante Parker (8-85-0/11) has been working pretty nicely this year as well, when he's not hurt. He's one of the only receivers to have received at least 7 targets in every game he's played and is averaging 12.74 ppg in ppr leagues. That's decent work.
*RC NOTE: With his production with Tua...he is becoming my new BFF. I knew he was good all along!! ;)
--One of my new favorite TE's Mike Gesicki (3-48-0/4) had a little bit of a down game. The Buffalo LB's were all over him because he lined up more as a traditional TE for some reason. He's basically been a huge WR every other game. Not sure what the game plan was for him, but I would expect him back out wide most weeks.
--I've said it all year and nothing has changed, Myles Gaskin (12-36-0, 3-19-0/4) is still the lead back here. That role just isn't worth much in Miami. They have a terrible offensive line and Gaskin just isn't athletic enough to make things happen on his own. He's probably due for a nice ppr pop game.
IDP Notes
--I've got to spotlight a guy I have a lot of appreciation for. Christian Wilkins (5 tackles, 2 tfl, 1 pd) is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in football. He's a DT so he tends to get overlooked because of guys like Donald and Chris Jones, but he's just a really solid football player, is constantly around the ball, gives 110% effort on every play, is smart and a true leader for Miami, impeccable character...he's the perfect team player.
He's got 38 tackles on the year (4.75/g) at defensive tackle. That's 2nd on his own team and 5 more than Donald. He gets consistent production on the defensive line if you need that for IDP.
Snap Counts of Interest
67 = Mike Gesicki
41 = Adam Shaheen
29 = Durham Smythe
65 = Jaylen Waddle
63 = DeVante Parker
40 = Myles Gaskin
16 = Salvon Ahmed
60 = Tommy Sweeney
4 = Reggie Gilliam
56 = Emmanuel Sanders
55 = Stefon Diggs
52 = Cole Beasley
47 = Zach Moss
25 = Devin Singletary
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Saints 36, Bucs 27
Just like I predicted before the game – the Saints would be forced to go to Trevor Siemian, and he would outduel Tom Brady, who would get the ball with nearly two-minutes remaining, down by just two, needing a field goal to win…and that he’d throw a bad pick-six to seal a Saints win.
We keep throwing around the Cardinals, Packers, Rams, Cowboys…and Bucs as the dominant NFC teams to debate on who might be the best – well, the Saints should be in that conversation. They’re getting their O-Line back healthy…one of the best in the league at full strength…and they have a good defense. Jameis Winston was holding them back, but no longer.
The Saints played toe-to-toe with a very sloppy Bucs team, a Bucs team that seems to wilt against any aggressive/physical foe. The Saints earned the win. They jump up to (5-2) and are right in the thick of the NFC South race. They are now (3-0) versus TOMpa Bay in the regular season going back to last year…they did lose to TOMpa in the playoffs. How fast we forget that the Saints won the division last year…over Tom.
The Saints are (5-2) and project to 10-12 wins now…we see them at 11 wins and possible NFC South champs.
The Bucs are (6-2) with an easier schedule to the finish. They should get to 12 wins and eek out the division over the Saints, but if TOMpa loses to the Saints again Week 15 hosting NO, then the board flips to the Saints for the NFC South.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Trevor Siemian (16-29 for 159 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) played totally fine football. He was comfortable in the pocket most drop backs. He wasn’t great but was plausible. He had his Siemian moments but mostly he lucked out of bad spots with penalties (to his benefit) or nice plays made by the receivers. He game managed this to victory. He played from ahead and didn’t blow it. He would/will blow it more times than not, over time, but in this one he held it together for the victory.
I think he looked good enough to warrant a start in Week 9…looked good enough to Sean Payton. I would not ASSUME Taysom Hill is getting the start here…not at all. Sean Payton is the better Kyle Shanahan – he thinks he can take any old QB and win. He’s (5-2) this season with Jameis starting…and just beat Tom Brady with Trevor Siemian, so can you blame him for thinking that?
Siemian played a Mike White type of game…screens and bubbles and solid short/medium throws when afforded time. That’s all you need to do in the NFL anymore.
-- Because the NFL, when lacking a downfield throwing ace, is just a screen and quick slant league – it’s a perfect set-up for Deonte Harris (1-22-0, 3-35-0/7). A true weapon with the ball in his hands. Maybe the closest thing to Tyreek Hill, from an agility and acceleration into warp speed guy that I see in the NFL.
He only plays 30-50% of the snaps in games, but when he’s in it’s for generating offense.
Week 4…led the team in targets (8) despite playing just 49% of the snaps.
Week 5…2 snaps played, one 72-yard TD, left hurt (hamstring)
Week 6…out with hamstring.
Week 7…out with hamstring.
Week 8…led the team in targets again, but just 3 catches…bit also a 22-yard jet sweep added in.
The most dangerous receiver the Saints have is Deonte with the ball in his hands. And he’s not just ‘fast guy’ doing fast guy things (screens, jet sweeps)…he is almost impossible to cover. He makes excellent cuts in his routes. He stop-starts on a dime. I think he’s secretly one of the 15-20 most dangerous players in the game. He has that Tyreek ability of just subtly running by people when it looks like there is no space/room to do so.
Injury is his constant issue. Talent is not.
Jameis Winston is a horrible QB-mind, and he was no good for Harris (or Callaway, or the TEs, or anyone but dump passes and occasional lucky bombs). Siemian would be his best QB – quick, traditional passes a la what Mike White did to Cincy last week. Taysom would be OK but Siemian better for him.
I think a star is waiting to be born with Harris, but probably when it happens…the next game he’ll tear is ACL and PCL and Achilles and pecs and break a femur and get COVID from the cart driver on his trip to the locker room.
-- Marquez Callaway (3-30-0/5) is the Saints best ‘traditional’ WR, and thus he has been a nobody with Jameis…and not much with Siemian, because Callaway works middle and deep, and Siemian is trying to dump off passes not read the field and make slick downfield throws.
Taysom Hill was great with/for Michael Thomas…and Callaway should be able to step in and do some of those same things…maybe…IF Taysom is the starting QB, and that’s 50-50 right now (as I type this).
-- People are dumping/selling cheaper Alvin Kamara (19-61-1, 3-15-0/4) on the news of a 1-2 punch…
#1) Mark Ingram (6-27-0, 2-25-0/2) being trade for has people spooked.
#2) Jameis gone is like Joe Montana being lost for the mainstream, so the sheep all think AK is doomed from the passing game with Taysom or Siemian.
GO BUY AK LOW! He is the Saints offense no matter who is at QB. Nothing changes, nothing to fear.
-- Speaking of contenders to the ‘he’s just like Tyreek’ fantasy world…rookie Jaelon Darden (3-11-0/3) gets a little more involved every week, in Antonio Brown’s absence.
Darden and Tom have a relationship, and I think Brady is trying to bring him along. Down the road, into 2022, as Antonio Brown is done…Darden is going to come into FF-play. Right now, he’s just getting his feet under him.
But, back to the Tyreek angle…if I was compiling a list of candidates to try and stretch into ‘next Tyreek’ realm (and no one is, and that’s not just a cute cliché), Darden would be on the short list. Darden and Deonte are two guys that are small and super-quick. Hill is a thicker, more stout version…so, the other guys pale in comparison, but in movement skills, Darden and Deonte are in the discussion at least.
-- Tyler Johnson (5-65-0/6) is a solid fill-in for Antonio Brown, but he’s not a game changer…he’s just competent, capable. He’s always going to be lower in the pecking order here. Now, if Godwin goes down and they push Tyler into that role…then I’m more FF-interested.
-- Gronk (0-0-0/1) rushed back from injury and got hurt again and is out. AB and Gronk are showing their age…Brady is not. Hopefully, for Gronk owners…the bye week allows Gronk to get back to 100% for the FF-stretch run.
Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Godwin
58 = Evans
39 = Tyler J
09 = Darden
08 = Grayson
37 = Brate
28 = OJ Howard
06 = Gronk
37 = Fournette
13 = Gio
09 = RoJo
59 = Callaway
48 = Tre’Quan
33 = Ty M
24 = Deonte
51 = Kamara
22 = Ingram
