Ross Jacobs

FFM

25 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Buccaneers 48, Falcons 25 (By Ross Jacobs)

Oh boy do I have a good one for you today. This game was eye-opening to watch for a number of reasons. So much to unpack so let's get to it.

The first thing you might notice is the score. Buccaneers are just rolling right along ready to defend their title...or maybe not.

I watched this game back twice just to make sure I didn't miss anything, and I have to say that the Falcons arguably outplayed the Bucs considering their talent levels. They had a few unlucky breaks early and got in a hole but managed to claw their way back into the game. 

Atlanta got the ball back early in the 4th quarter trailing only 28-25 and TB only had 28 because of a lucky interception earlier in the game. The Falcons got backed up on their own 4 after a TB punt took a nice bounce and after the Falcons got stopped they punted it away but it was a crappy punt and Tampa got the ball near the 50. Brady promptly punched in the score and the Bucs were back on top by 10.

There was still time for Atlanta to try and get it back, but Ryan got two drives back to back where a pass got tipped right to a defender for easy pick 6's. And just like that the game was over.

This was NOT a Buccaneers beatdown of a hapless Falcons team. Not even close. The Falcons showed a level of grit and tenacity I haven't seen from the Bucs yet. Tampa seems to have a little of the arrogance the Rams are showing right now. We've got Tom Brady (or Stafford) and we're invincible. I'm not sure which of those teams is more overrated right now.

Don't get me wrong, Tampa is still a very good team. Their defense isn't nearly as menacing as last year though, but the offense is better so it offsets a little. They will be in the mix for #1 seed in the NFC. Right this second though my money would be elsewhere (likely in Arizona).

The Falcons are starting to right their ship. They looked atrocious against the Eagles, but this was a whole different squad or so it appeared. The defense isn't great and seems particularly vulnerable over the middle, but they were flying around aggressively, coming after Brady, hitting hard, and just generally looked much better than last week. The offense is starting to get it's feet under it too, and we'll talk about that more in a minute. After what I saw here I'm wondering if this team might not be closer to 6 or 7 wins than the 2-3-4 we assumed after last week. I want to see another game to be sure of the trends.

Fantasy Notes

--There are a few big-ticket items to cover, but you know I have to start with longtime FFM favorite Cordarrelle Patterson (7-11-1, 5-58-1/7). I am so happy for C-Patt that he's finally getting his long overdue moment in the spotlight. I just wish this had happened years ago. Thank all those genius offensive coordinators who couldn't figure out how to throw him a damn screen pass. Anyways, this was exactly what we were hoping for (and what I honestly did not think would happen). Credit to Arthur Smith, he knows Patterson is his best weapon and he's using him, not just at RB but also at WR and Patterson is delivering.

Don't be scared off by the low ypc here. Patterson was running better than Mike Davis (9-38-0, 7-25-0/7) the entire game. He just had a couple of late carries where Tampa blew up the line and hit him for big losses, and Davis had the opposite thing happen. He was getting stuffed most of the day but had 2 runs for about 10 yards apiece on the last drive after the game was over and Tampa didn't care to boost his average. This is a tough TB run defense and Patterson was easily the more effective runner.

In addition, his passes are a mix of dumpoffs out of the backfield, but Smith is mixing in a few short passes from WR alignments. All of Davis's catches were dumpoffs and about half of them, again, came very late after the game was over.

I watched every snap from these two guys. Don't be afraid that Davis took 46 snaps to Patterson's 24. The official tally doesn't do the game justice. What actually happened was much closer to a 50-50 split than you would assume.

Davis was in the first 2 snaps then Patterson replaced him for 3rd down. That pattern repeated and then things changed. Patterson was the lead for several snaps including a couple at WR. They rotated back and forth for most of the first half but by my count Patterson had a slight lead or was at least even at that point. Then at the very end of the 2nd half, about 5 minutes left to go, suddenly Davis was in on every snap for about 8 or 9 plays. After they came back from halftime Davis was still the sole guy in for about a half dozen plays before Patterson returned to the game and they began rotating again. I haven't seen anything on a Patterson injury, so this is pure speculation, but based on the pattern I suspect maybe Patterson got shaken up for a period of time there and then was ok'ed to come back in 100%. Davis also took a handful of snaps by himself on the last drive of the game before Atlanta shifted to their backups and just ran the clock out themselves. If I'm correct about the Patterson injury scare then this is basically a 50-50 split already.

What I do know is that Patterson is by far the more effective and dangerous of the two. He scored 2 TD's here and had shots at a couple of others. At one point he caught a pass in the flats, broke two tackles, and looked like he'd have a nice 30 yard receiving TD but it was called back after he barely tapped his toe on the sideline. Not long after he lined up inside the 10 as a wildcat QB but fumbled the snap and took a loss. Ridley would score soon after. Patterson was getting far more looks inside the 5-10 yard line than Davis and that is leading to more scores.

His TD reception was a slick one-handed catch on a poorly thrown ball. His TD run was a toss play where he juked a safety out of his shoes. He even had a throwback screen on the left sideline where he broke a few tackles and took off down the field. All in all, there was a very concerted effort to get Patterson the ball, and it should be noted that from the very first kickoff Tampa squib/pooch kicked the ball to keep it away from Patterson on the return. They knew he was a threat and were trying to stop him. This is not a fad. This is not going away. Patterson is the top threat on this team right now, a possible RB1.5 threat, and if Davis goes down with injury it could be game on. Just note, he won't be the top threat for long because...

--Kyle Pitts (5-73-0/6) is so damn good it's unreal. He is essentially Calvin Johnson who occasionally comes in to block. He led the team in receiving here but you would never have known it from watching the game. He flashed only once after he juked his defender off the snap like a WR, broke over the middle, and had to reach way behind him to haul in the catch one-handed, never broke stride and took off between two defenders who had an angle on him. It was a surreal play, and one we're going to start seeing more and more...eventually...

You see, the one problem with Pitts right now is that he is not remotely being featured. He's playing a huge number of snaps, and the routes he was running were a little more varied and creative than last week, but I think Smith is still trying to manage him, hasn't taken off the training wheels just yet. The good news is that Pitts is able to lead this team in receiving while essentially being the 4th or 5th target right now. But it looks like they are slowly building up to unleashing him fully, and I think that day comes sooner rather than later. It's kind of like with Justin Jefferson last year. Through 2 games in 2020 he had 5 catches for 70 yards, and then in week 3 he exploded. That may be what we're about to see happen. Not saying it will for sure be week 3, but I do believe that explosion is coming.

Pitts is a beast, as good as advertised. Just try to remain patient. I know we all want our shiny new toys to immediately be weapons of mass destruction, but things rarely work out like that. This bet is going to pay off.

--Coming into this rewatch I was concerned about one thing for Pitts...Matt Ryan (35-46 for 300 yards, 2 TD/3 INT). He looked terrible last week and then you see his line this week and think it's more of the same. Well I'm happy to report that Ryan is mostly fine, he hasn't suddenly become terrible at football. He's not great, that's for sure, but this was a heavy pressure defense coming against his leaky offensive line, and he played a pretty smart, controlled game and had his team in contention. The three interceptions? All flukes. Literally all three were passes that were tipped at the line by TB defenders that came through the line essentially unblocked and the ball bounced straight up in the air to a Buccaneer all three times. Very unlucky but not Ryan's fault.

It does look like Ryan has lost a little arm strength though. He tossed a deep pass to a wide open Ridley once that floated in the air so long it gave Tampa time to close the gap and knock the ball loose. It's not a huge issue, just something to be aware of. The TD's might be a little harder to come by this year and that might keep Pitts as just the overall TE 4-5 but it's splitting hairs. Ridley is the one that's in trouble.

Speaking of Calvin Ridley (7-63-1/10) if you have him I'd sell now off a decent game. He's still got name value from last year, so don't sell him for pennies, but I'd try to turn him into something useful before you're left holding a WR2. That's all he is at this point. He'll still get a good number of targets this year, but he is not remotely the top guy for this new staff. Patterson is the weapon right now and will be the sidekick to Pitts very soon, they still want Davis to get a good number of carries, and that leaves Ridley as the 3rd or 4th option to go along with Ryan's weakening arm. Not a recipe for great fantasy success.

The only other notable fantasy “maybe” for Atlanta was Russell Gage (5-28-0/7) but you could do better. This isn't the high flying Falcons passing offense of the past few years. The volume is lower (although higher here because of the nature of the game) and the efficiency is lower. Gage also got hurt during the game and is out for week 3 which opens up more opportunity in the short term for Olamide Zaccheaus (2-22-0/4) but everything I said about Gage applies to him too.

--Ok 1500 words just on Atlanta's offense, so what do I have for Tampa Bay?

Not much, sorry. We know what these guys are. It's the Tom Brady show (24-36 for 276, 5 TD/0 INT) and for good reason. He looks as good as I've seen him in years. His arm is strong (he overthrew Evans on a 50 yard bomb...at 1000 years old...), he's accurate, making good decisions, I don't know, the guy must have sold his soul at this point. I don't know how else to explain it. Just be aware that he's getting a lot of TD's per attempt right now and that probably (probably) won't hold. You'd think at some point he won't have so many short fields or someone will score a rushing TD, but you never know when you're messing with the supernatural...

--Brady doesn't have a top target. Mike Evans (5-75-2/9) popped as expected after his poor outing last week. He looks fine and just missed on another 50 yard catch. Chris Godwin (4-62-1/5) is the co-#1 and the preferred short/medium depth target. Brady is going to feed the good matchups so these guys might have some ups and downs but both should be WR1.5's.

Antonio Brown (1-17-0/3) isn't the lead like we assumed. I was worried that he wasn't on the field week 1 for 2-WR sets, and now I'm sure of it. He's a good option and one Brady will exploit from time to time, but he's just a tick behind the other two in terms of involvement. He came up positive for COVID the middle of this week so he's probably a long shot to play Sunday. Unfortunate.

--Rob Gronkowski (4-39-2/5) is killing it for fantasy right now, but I'd be cautious if you expect that to continue. He doesn't look great honestly, not bad, but definitely a bit slower than he did a few years ago. He's lumbering a bit. He's also not a priority read for Brady. So far he's just been an open option as defenses are focused on stopping the 3 very good WR's. Gronk should have good TD's numbers moving forward as he's a great option in the redzone, but don't expect huge target/catch/yardage counts. Those days are long gone. Think of him more like 2020 Robert Tonyan.

--The two RB's are still rotating every other series in a split. Ronald Jones (6-27-0, 1-9-0/3) started the game and Leonard Fournette (11-52-0, 4-24-0/4) took the second series and so on and so forth. Fournette did end up taking a few more carries late as they tried to salt away the game and he gets a little bit more passing game work than Jones, so if you must have one you want Fournette. If either goes down with injury this suddenly gets a little more intriguing though and you might have a RB1.5 on your hands.

IDP Notes

--Nothing unexpected happened here other than Mike Edwards (4 tackles, 3 pd, 2 INT, 2 TD's) scoring two touchdowns. That will never happen again. He was just in the right place at the right time and the ball bounced right to him. No breakout here.

--As I've been warning for a year and a half now, Devin White (6 tackles) is struggling a little bit, both in real life and fantasy, now that the pieces around him aren't so strong. He's great when he gets other players to eat up blocks for him while he runs free to the play but not so good when he has to navigate traffic and do something himself. Lavonte David (8 tackles) is less heralded and always overlooked to some degree, but he's the better player.

--Atlanta's top corner AJ Terrell (2 tackles, 2 pd) got hurt mid/late game and has been ruled out against the Giants. It's another blow to an already shaky secondary. Might help Daniel Jones have another decent fantasy day.

Snap Counts of Interest

60 = Calvin Ridley

57 = Kyle Pitts

30 = Hayden Hurst

46 = Mike Davis

24 = Cordarrelle Patterson

56 = Chris Godwin

46 = Mike Evans

28 = Antonio Brown

51 = Rob Gronkowski

21 = Cam Brate

31 = Leonard Fournette

26 = Ronald Jones

R.C. Fischer

FFM

24 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Titans 33, Seahawks 30 in OT

I thought this re-watch was going to be standard fare -- a lot of Derrick Henry battling a lot of Russell Wilson, and the Henry side snuck it out in the end. But I found, after the study/watch, that I have a good collection of notes to discuss from this contest.

As for the game itself, the Seahawks had everything go right in the 1st-half and Tennessee had about everything go wrong…from penalties to drops to turnovers to broken coverages…and Seattle took a commanding 24-9 lead at the half. While watching live, I just mentally wrote this game off at the half and assumed the Titans stink and would lose.

The Titans don’t stink.

The Titans were the better or equal team here, and the fact that they overcame a 15-point deficit at the half, at Seattle, after getting blown out by Arizona last week – kudos to this team, and to Mike Vrabel (yeah, I said it).

The Titans are CLEARLY the best team in the AFC South. Their offense is really good…but it’s their defense that has gotten better which is the key. When you consider how bad the rest of the AFC South is – the Titans may be a shock contender for an AFC #1 seed and be a very tough out with Derrick Henry and friends.

The fans are down on Tennessee because the analysts are, because the analysts got mad that Tennessee got ripped by Arizona Week 1 – but when you live with the FFM knowledge that Arizona is fantastic and a possible NFC title winner…then that loss isn’t so bad. The Titans have faced two MVP candidate QBs Weeks 1-2. Now comes Eason-Z.Wilson-Trevor the next 3 weeks…before a gauntlet BUF-KC Weeks 6-7…and then it’s off to the races from there. The Titans are going 11+ wins if they can sweep the AFC South.

Seattle is now (1-1) and not as good as Arizona…so a wild card is as likely as winning the division.

The Titans are so unlucky to have their first two games against the two best teams in the league's 1st/2nd toughest division (NFC West). We need to use that knowledge to our advantage on how to play Tennessee things from here.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Julio Jones (6-128-0/8) is still good. Breaking news. Weird, but it kinda is breaking news.

I get the feeling we’ve all just accepted that Julio is getting older and has moved to unsexy pass game Tennessee…he’s being put out to pasture to play out the final year of his contract.

I would like you to consider:

1) He’s working hard in Tennessee. He’s getting chippy/trying to bully corners. He’s fighting for extra yards. He’s not fading off, he’s still fighting…maybe more energized than I’ve seen him in a year or two.

2) He’s not the speedster he used to be, but he’s still plenty fast…getting open…making catches…smartly boxing out small CBs and making his plays. He’s gone from a D.K. Metcalf type receiver to a Michael Thomas one – the reliable #1 WR worker.

3) Ryan Tannehill 2021 is exponentially better than Matt Ryan 2019-2020 (and 2021). Anyone who thinks Julio went to a worse place for production…you’re wrong.

4) Julio had his hands on a TD Week 1, but couldn’t bring it in. He also had a sweet TD catch that was controversially overturned for being out of bounds but it looked like he was good to me.

If Julio had scored a TD in each game the last two weeks, his numbers would be tracking WR1.5 right now…not the WR3-4 FF scoring he is YTD at the moment.

I think Julio Jones is a crafty ‘buy low’ from an owner who is writing Julio off. If your team is really good/going for the title…you might could add this veteran cheaper than you think. Don’t pay full price or any price…this is a try and steal stealthily moment.

 -- A.J. Brown (3-43-0/9) had a rough game…3 catches on 9 targets and 1-2 drops. It looked worse and was portrayed worse in the media than it was. I’m not thinking there is a hands issue. He doesn’t look as fast/explosive as last year, but he did have double knee clean-up surgery in January.

 -- Derrick Henry (35-182-3, 6-55-0/6) caught 6 passes in this game!

I was going to joke about how that’s more catches than in his last X games or all of last season…because, don’t you know Henry can’t catch?

Well, did you know Henry has 2 or more catches in a game in six of his last 9 games (incl. playoffs)? In those last 9 games, he has 19 catches…2.1 per game. 19 catches off 22 targets…a catch rate of 86.4%.

Who the hell keeps saying he can’t catch the ball (I’m guilty as charged of just running with an old narrative)? He looked really good catching it here.

If Henry is going 2-3 catches a game instead of 0-1…you know what that means? He is the true #1 asset in all of FF – not always-hurt Christian McCaffrey.

If we were redrafting now/today, you would not take CMC…you would take Derrick Henry…or you should.

“You know all those carries are gonna catch up with Henry!” *As Christian McCaffrey gets hurt in an early season game again on TNF Week 3 and will miss several weeks*

 -- Another TEN buy low candidate – Ryan Tannehill (27-40 for 347 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs, 4-27-0). His crime? Not having a TD pass this game…and only 1 TD pass all season.

He was so close to two passing TDs in this game, minimum. One of them the Julio reversal BS. And, again, don’t fault him for not producing huge against Arizona’s defense.

Tannehill is always distrusted, always undervalued…by me and most everyone.

Overlooking Tannehill as a nice 2nd QB emergency option and always assuming Derrick Henry is going to get hurt – two massive Tennessee-mistakes we FF-make over and over and over again.

 -- D.K. Metcalf (6-53-0/11) is transforming, but not sure what it means for FF output…but it could be great.

History lesson…

1) DKM fell in his NFL Draft because he had weak output his final year of college. Why did he? Because SEC corners and D-Cs saw that all he did was run deep routes…so they all played him to go deep, and he was rarely open for his bad QB.

2) DKM splashed in the NFL because all the millionaire coordinators who watch tape 20+ hours a day had no idea that the SEC had figured out how to neutralize Metcalf. They deployed CBs up in Metcalf’s face, and then DK just batted them away and sprinted past them deep for easy, long TDs over and over.

3) Some D-C finally figured it out in 2020 2nd-half, then the others started to copy, and thus Metcalf’s output fell off a table to end the season.

4) 2021…Seattle is adjusting…

I’ve never seen Metcalf run shorter routes in a game as much as he did here. He was like Michael Thomas (or like Julio on the other side of the field) in this game working the interior – with the added bonus that once he catches it, no one can tackle him. It’s opening up a whole new world of possibilities for DKM.

Two issues…

1) Will Seattle keep up running Metcalf on shorter routes?

2) Will DKM flop doing it? He is very clunky running routes and catching basic passes, sometimes. Will Seattle persist through it or change back to making him a deep ball guy again?

We’ll see but watching him catch a short pass with 10-yards of space because DBs are playing way back off him for the deep route…and then him running over people after the catch like he’s the WR version of Derrick Henry (not joking). It’s a real weapon that could emerge, and then he becomes a more dangerous NFL and FF WR when teams can’t just play him to run deep 95-99% of the time.

 -- Freddie Swain (5-95-1/5) was left wide open on a play in the 2nd-half and Russ hit him for a 68-yard TD. Nothing emerging here…it was just a moment. When Dee Eskridge is back, Swain goes back to a #4 WR.

 -- Let the Gerald Everett (1-3-0/2) excitement…die.

OH, they’re going to use him in so many creative ways! So far, two games, 3 targets for 23 yards total. WOW! What creativity!!

 -- MyCole Pruitt (3-43-0/3) got better treatment by the Titans than Everett did by Seattle…for millions of dollars less contract. Pruitt is good, and he was a force when they called upon him here. He played a heavy number of snaps and with Anthony Firkser out he might get some surprising numbers ahead.

I’ve always been a fan. He’s always underutilized but makes catches when they go to him.

 -- You want more Titans undervalued things? How about the Titans-DST?

This isn’t a bad unit…not great, but not bad. Their crime is facing Kyler-Russ the first two weeks. They look pretty decent to me, not great, but not the joke everyone thinks. Down 24-9 at the half, off of some fluky circumstances…they shut the door on Seattle 2nd-half to get the comeback win.

They might be a decent option in a decent matchup…like vs. TEN with Brett Hundley starting.

Snap Counts of Interest:

43 = Everett

26 = Dissly

64 = Swaim

55 = M Pruitt

21 = Tommy Hudson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

24 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Rams 27, Colts 24

The Rams were definitely the better team, not by a ton…but they played better and seemed to flip a switch when needed. On the other hand, the Rams played very lackadaisical here.

My wild theory with little to substantiate: There is such an arrogance happening with the Rams. Sean McVay is running his mouth about Matt Stafford, telling long stories about how he met and fell in love with Stafford meeting with him in Cabo in the offseason…and how connected they are and think about football the same. It’s worse than my young-and-in-love son talking about his new girlfriend now recently turned fiancée.

It all irritates me (the Stafford part, not my son…he has true love) and that’s not why (I hope it’s not why) I think I see some things here – it just looks like they think that as long as they got Stafford + McVay that nothing else matters, everything is fine. I see several concerns the first two weeks. They’ve played decent but weaker teams (CHI and then Indy dealing with injuries), and through two games the Rams have looked sharp at times, but empty at others and the weaker opponents are moving the ball against them and hanging in these games longer than they should. This Indy game was tied deep into the 4th-quarter.

The Rams were holding the lead all game, the Colts scurried back into it and then lost their QB at the worst time, and the Rams eventually won…but then you look and see that the time of possession favored Indy…both teams had similar yards, while the Colts converted more 3rd-downs and rushed for more yards. The game stats favored with a lean to the Colts here.

In fact, the Colts drove right down the field to goal-to-go in the 1st-quarter…twice…and walked away with 0 points on ridiculously bad plays called by Frank Reich/executed poorly by Carson Wentz on ‘going for it’ 4th-down and goals to go.

The Rams are winning…but the opponents have been shooting themselves in the foot to some degree – it hasn’t been awesome Rams defense or consistent control of the opponents, to my eyes. The Rams might get a huge rude awakening against Tampa Bay this week.

My grand point being…something just seems off with the Rams. That people think they are top 5 NFL great and Super Bowl contenders, but this team looks about the same/worse than last year’s team. I’ll say worse because the defense is nothing like last year’s unit, so far.

The Colts are now (0-2) and playing for their lives against (1-1) Tennessee Week 3…likely with Jacob Eason at the helm. The season may already be over for the Colts.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Jacob Eason (2-5 for 25 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) came in for Carson Wentz (20-31 for 247 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) and tried to lead a 2-minute drill to tie/win but was picked on his 2nd throw and that kinda iced it. He did get one more shot with 0:24 left but with no timeouts and a whole field to go it was useless.

Wentz sprained both of his ankles and left the game…something only Wentz could do. Wentz looks scrappy between the 20s but craps the bed on making things happen near the red zone – the 5th worst offense in the red zone to start the season. When the money is on the line…you don’t want the ball in Wentz’s hands. Signs of 2020 Wentz are rearing their head.

Week 3, Eason will likely start. He has a cannon for an arm and can make nice, preplanned throws, but if he needs to improvise or carry a team…you got problems. With any pressure he’ll throw it into trouble and get picked. Keep him clean and simple, and he’ll look terrific on throws.

 -- Matt Stafford (19-30 for 278 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) is only throwing/looking good throwing to Cooper Kupp (9-163-2/11). They are beyond connected…and all the other options are FF-screwed because of it (Higbee, Woods, DJax). Essentially half of Stafford’s completions were to Kupp in this game…47% of the completions, 58% of the passing yards, 100% of the passing TDs.

And because NFL coaches are geniuses, the Colts staff just watched this unfolding and never adjusted so Stafford kept burning them with it. I’m going to be very interested in seeing If Tampa Bay locks down Kupp…if Stafford will have an answer, because he looks more erratic/uncomfortable throwing anywhere else.

 -- Example…just when you think Tyler Higbee (1-8-0/1) might be being used as a weapon after a solid Week 1, he gets one whole target Week 2…in a back-and-forth game.

 -- The big news from this game was the Darrell Henderson (13-53-1, 3-29-0/5) went down with a rib injury late and that sprung the first real look at Sony Michel (10-46-0).

My take on the two RBs:

I’ve watched two games with DH as the lead in 2021, and he’s been fine…but you keep waiting to see that ultra-fast 40-time guy, and it just isn’t there. He’s totally fine. A tough runner with solid speed, but I don’t see that juice we all thought he had. He looked better, to my eyes, last year when he first broke out.

Honestly, Sony Michel came in and looked very quick…very fresh…and a better interior runner.

Henderson’s injury has opened the door/gotten Michel a look…and he may live to regret it. You don’t have to give Sean McVay much reason to move away from DHendo, whom he hates.

My guess is that Henderson will not play this week due to the rib, and the Michel door will be open – now it’s a tough draw to go up against Tampa Bay, but if he succeeds against a tough TB run defense…he’ll be in a split with DH at a minimum…and then soon to be the main back, whatever that means in a split. Possibly, Michel will be the Cam Akers replacement McVay was praying for.

 -- Speaking of clusters in a backfield…

Jonathan Taylor (15-51-0, 1-2-0/1) continues to be underutilized. He was also halted on goal line TD events 4-5 times in this game.

What’s the deal? Well…

First, the Colts have the most overrated ‘good’ O-Line in the NFL. Everyone talks about how great they are, but the results have been meh for two years now…despite having an ace RB prospect in their midst.

Also, when Taylor is in…the defense is keying more on Taylor because they don’t fear Wentz.

And then, often, Frank Reich gets Marlon Mack (5-16-0, 0-0-0/1) happy and suddenly we see Mack-Hines in WAY too much. Taylor played 30 snaps, touched the ball 16 times…when JT is in it’s a safe bet for the defense that it’s where the ball is going.

Taylor is headed to be an RB1.5-2 in 2021 with eternal top five RB1 hopes if he cashes a TD every week -- and he’s getting a ton of goal line chances, but not converting...another strike against that O-Line.. Jacob Eason starting at QB will not help matters.

 -- Michael Pittman (8-123-0/12) broke out here. He had his way with the Rams secondary. He looked terrific.

The odd thing was…Jalen Ramsey was rarely on him. I saw Ramsey covering TEs…RBs…no one…sometimes Strachan or Pascal…as Pittman just carved up single and double coverage. Is Ramsey no longer a thing? It was very bizarre watching Pittman go off and Ramsey never adjusting over. It's game-on with Pittman, but maybe not as much with Eason at QB. Let Pittman flop (if) with Eason Week 3, then we'll circle back looking to buy lower if desired.

Mike Strachan (0-0-0/1) didn’t start but played the 3rd-most snaps among Colts WRs. I did see Ramsey on him more than Pittman. The Colts have no plan for Strachan right now. Carson Wentz is a bottom 10 NFL starting QB who has now locked onto Pittman – so the Strachan story is probably on hold until 2022 (unless Pittman goes down), hopefully with new coaches and new QB in 2022, but I doubt it. Probably 2023 is the hope.

 -- The Rams-DST has faced Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz, and they did not dominate either…and all total, the Rams are #20 in yards allowed but a solid #8 in PPG allowed among NFL defenses through two games. This Rams defense has not looked like the dominant unit they were in 2020. With D-C Brandon Staley now coaching the Chargers…it may have had a much bigger impact than the team thought.

If Tampa Bay goes and drops 30+ points on the Rams defender in Week 3…the media is going to flip out on this defense/McVay.

Brady then Kyler then Russell Wilson the next three weeks…I’m not sure they’re an FF-start the next 3 weeks.

NYG-DET-HOU-TEN-SF Weeks 6-10 looks more promising but not as much if the Rams are just a mediocre/good defense now.

Rams DT Sebastian Joseph-Day (9 tackles, 1.0 sacks) went nuts in this game…not a good sign for the vaunted Indy O-Line. I don’t think it’s a SJB IDP breakout

Denver claimed 2020 starting ILB Micah Kiser off the LAR practice squad this week – smart move by Denver. Kiser could be the Broncos starter at ILB in a few weeks, but Justin Strnad may just keep that job and flourish.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Pascal

60 = Pittman

34 = Strachan

26 = Dulin

30 = Taylor

25 = Hines

13 = Mack

40 = Henderson

16 = Michel

03 = Funk

03 = DeSean Jackson

Ross Jacobs

FFM

24 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Ravens 36, Chiefs 35 (By Ross Jacobs)

Whew, what a game. As a fan you just have to step back and appreciate these clashes between some of the best QB's and teams in the league. It doesn't get any better.

I'd like to be coy here and try to spin some complicated story about how the Chiefs shouldn't panic after losing to a Ravens team decimated by injuries, or how the Chiefs outplayed the Ravens and would have won except for an uncharacteristic interception by Mahomes and the first career fumble for Edwards-Helaire. I could dive into the play-by-play and dissect every move that happened, the twists and turns, who got lucky and why, but that would be a waste of time.

You can make up all kinds of stories and narratives about this game and people will, but the truth of the matter is that two really good football teams played a game and one of them won. Somebody had to. I wouldn't read too much into anything that happened here. Nothing has changed with either of these teams. They are still two of the best in the league, just like they've been for the past several years. So long as Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are healthy these two squads have a chance at winning every game they play. End of story.

Fantasy Notes

--Let's start with the one real unknown from this game and the thing that could most affect your fantasy season depending on the outcome, the thing RC and I have spent more time on than anything else...Ty'Son Williams (13-77-0, 2-16-0/2). Nearly every analyst I have seen this week has been saying the Ty'Son experience is over, that he's not that talented, that it's a split backfield situation between him, Latavius Murray (9-36-1) and Devonta Freeman (2-29-0), and that you can safely leave Ty'Son on your bench.

Do not listen to anyone that tells you that. I'm begging you.

Ty'Son is going to matter this year. The case is settled after watching this game. We already knew he was easily the most explosive, most effective back for Baltimore, but the only reason for skepticism, whether the team would recognize it and commit to him, is gone now. They know. Ty'Son is going to put up some numbers this year and this may be your last chance to buy low on him.

Thankfully for those that haven't already acquired him, a couple of fluky plays kept him from scoring 2 TD's here and that's going to hold his price down for at least another week. The first was a carry on their first redzone trip where Ty'Son made a great cut and was headed for an easy TD but got blasted on his arm with a helmet at the 1. The ball popped straight to Devin Duvernay who scored the TD. The second was the Ravens go-ahead score in the 4th quarter. Ty'Son looked like he was going to finish another run but was dropped just short of the goalline and Lamar kept the next play himself to score. We were inches away from a 2 TD game and people would be going wild for him, but instead we have one final chance to get in before this thing takes off.

Ty'Son is the lead back here and that's not changing. Don't be fooled by the fact that he's only playing 50% of the snaps and taking 55-60% of the RB carries. None of it matters. What matters is that he is going to get 12-15 carries every week and he's going to average north of 5+ ypc along with a TD chance every week. He's also getting around 2 catches a game which is not bad at all for a Ravens RB. We're talking somewhere around 14.5 ppg in ppr leagues which is going to put him in the 12-15 range or so for RB's on the year. That's his floor. It's possible we could even see those numbers go up a bit.

Don't overpay for him, but definitely try to acquire him for RB2-2.5 prices. Trust me, most people don't trust him because they didn't know his name to start the season. He's not a real player to them. We know the truth.

--If I haven't made it clear enough the past several weeks, please don't have Murray on your team. He's dreadful. 4.0 ypc here against one of the weakest run defenses in the league in a Ravens backfield where everyone averages 5 ypc? Even the Ravens know he's limited because they barely gave him any work between the 20's here. It was all short yardage stuff and inside the 10 where he doesn't have to go far. He gets what is blocked and that's it. The TD's are the only thing propping him up and they aren't going to be that frequent. Don't even entertain the idea.

--Another player RC and I have been pointing out is Marquise Brown (6-113-1/10) and the public is waking up to this one. Brown isn't my favorite player ever, but he's the top WR target for Lamar and Lamar scores touchdowns, therefore Brown scores touchdowns. Isn't fantasy easy? Probably not the time to buy in on him coming off a huge Sunday night game, but there will be a lull in his scores eventually where he goes 3-57-0 or something and that will be the time to grab him if he's not too hot already.

--Mark Andrews (5-57-0/5) has had a slow start to the year. Don't worry about him. His numbers are coming. Nothing has changed for him in this offense, just other things have been available. He's going to have a 2 TD night soon and everyone will forget about the start. He'll finish as a top 5 TE like usual.

--All these Ravens players are only useful because of one man though. Lamar Jackson (18-26 for 239 yards, 1 TD/2 INT, 16-107-2) is so good and somehow still underrated at times. It's weird. I think sometimes we drop him a step down in our minds because he relies on his legs more than most other top guys, and even though he isn't as threatening a pure passer as a Mahomes or Kyler, we tend to think he's less dangerous because of it. He's not. And don't worry about the 2 interceptions here. The pick 6 happened because Sammy Watkins slipped. The second one was a stupid pass into coverage, but he doesn't do that often.

--Patrick Mahomes (24-31 for 343, 3 TD/1 INT) continues to do Patrick Mahomes things. He's unstoppable. Why do we even bother with other QB's for fantasy? Everyone has question marks every year. Pat may not finish as the #1 QB, but he's going to be in the mix and he's as safe as it possibly gets. You cannot go wrong drafting him. Don't overthink it next year. Just draft him.

And I don't want to hear people complaining on Twitter about how we should crucify Mahomes for throwing that stupid interception as he was falling to the ground because we smash Darnold or Jameis when they do that crap. Darnold and Jameis aren't good enough to shine Mahomes's shoes first of all. And second of all Darnold and Jameis do that every game while struggling to throw 200 yards. Mahomes is the best QB the game has ever known and makes jaw-dropping plays multiple times a game. He can do whatever the &%$# he wants and you can deal with it. You don't reign in greatness because it makes an occasional mistake. You reign in terrible mistakes that far outweigh the occasional good thing. Not remotely the same comparison, but thanks for proving that you know nothing yet again Twitter fans. Rant over.

--Travis Kelce (7-109-1/8) is a boss and the only other thing in fantasy that can compare with Mahomes. There's a reason RC and I advocate taking him even as high as the 1st round. Forget his age, forget your charts and graphs and “regression” analysis. Kelce is immune. Mahomes is immune. The rules don't apply to them. Stop overthinking it!

--Tyreek Hill (3-14-0/4, 1-15-0) is immune for the season, but he does occasionally have these type games. It's unfortunate but it happens. Take your lumps and move on. He's going to help you win most other weeks.

--I don't get the Clyde Edwards-Helaire (13-46-0) hate this week. We just all collectively decided that now it's ok to hate on him? He fumbles for the first time in his career and it causes the Chiefs to lose and now suddenly he's the worst? The guy is fine. He's playing good football. We always knew he was a somewhat limited athlete, doesn't have the best long speed. He's not going to give you 100 yard games very often. He doesn't get the carries for that. This particular game he didn't get any catches which hurts but it happens sometimes. The selling point for Helaire has always been that he should have good opportunity to score points because of the offense. Well guess what? The Chiefs have been scoring for 30+ yards out nearly every drive so far this year. That isn't going to always be the case.

Last week it was Tyreek, this week Pringle and Kelce had long catch and runs and Robinson caught a bomb. I know patience isn't the strong suit of fantasy players, but please, try to have some. Helaire has no competition for his job, he's going to get 12-15 carries a game, about 3 catches, and (hopefully) start bringing in a TD every other week or so. If nothing changes I'd expect him to fall right outside the top 12 or so, right in the same bucket as Ty'Son and if the TD's start coming faster he could make it into the back of the RB1 range. He's not a top 5 RB like everyone was hoping for the last two years, but he is a nice, safe option to keep you from hurting too badly at RB. Remember, somebody else out there is starting Latavius Murray.

--Byron Pringle (2-63-1/2) showed why RC thinks he should be KC's second option at WR with a terrific catch and run TD here, but it's probably not going to change anything. He's still the 4th option behind Demarcus Robinson (3-46-1/4) and Mecole Hardman (5-55-0/8).

‍

IDP Notes

Daniel Sorensen (10 tackles, 1 sack), Anthony Hitchens (12 tackles, 1 tfl), and Nick Bolton (9 tackles, 1 tfl) had elevated tackle counts because the Ravens run so much. Don't expect that next week.

I'm not loving what I see from Bolton. He's as advertised that's for sure, a somewhat slow of foot, thick, hard hitting throwback middle linebacker. He's a good run defender when he can play downfield, but he struggles if you get him chasing side to side. He defended Ty'Son just fine for example, but when Lamar took off around the edges he was usually out of position. He also struggles in pass coverage. Don't mean to sound too critical of him, he's a good player for what he does, especially as a rookie, but I'm just not sure what a run-stuffing MLB is worth in the NFL these days.

Patrick Queen (8 tackles) shows up every week now and is going to be among the league leaders in tackles this year. He's really developed into a very nice LB. I definitely missed that one when he came out of college.

I still don't see it with Jayson Oweh (3 tackles, 1 tfl, 1 fumble recovery). He seems to be in the right place though so maybe there's hope for him if he can ever incorporate his athleticism into his game.

Snap Counts of Interest

70 = Sammy Watkins

55 = Marquise Brown

37 = Devin Duvernay

37 = Ty'Son Williams

27 = Latavius Murray

10 = Devonta Freeman

33 = Clyde Edwards-Helaire

14 = Darrell Williams

40 = Mecole Hardman

30 = Demarcus Robinson

11 = Byron Pringle

‍

R.C. Fischer

FFM

23 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Patriots 25, Jets 6

The Patriots throttled the Jets by three scores. Zach Wilson is now the most media hated starting QB in the NFL, now that Andy Dalton is gone, after tossing four picks to the Pats.

I rewatched this game to study what went wrong with Wilson, but I walked away thinking – the Jets may be my new favorite team of the future. Also, the Patriots are not more talented than the Jets…more experienced, but not more talented.

The story of this game happened in the 1st-quarter. On the very first drive, second play, the Jets stripped a fumble away from NE, which set them up in great field position right away – only a totally B.S. whistle called the ballcarrier down by progress…a very fast, unneeded whistle…unless you’re on the Belichick payroll.

Zack Wilson then started throwing picks…passes off the hands of his receivers that pleasantly, gingerly floated into the air right to a defender on the first one and off the hands ricocheted right into the deep trailing DB on the second.

The Jets would halt drives, and then some ticky-tack penalty would extend it for NE. The Jets would be driving and a penalty would push them back.

With everything going their way, including three 1st-half picks, the Pats only led 13-3 at the half.

The Patriots were then able to play small ball the rest of the game while the Jets flailed away in vain until the merciful end. The Patriots played better football, but the Jets were the aggressors…the ones the Pats had to adjust to, and bob-and-weave from. The turnovers threw cold water on everything for NYJ – and we’ll get into those turnovers/Wilson first up in the next section.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- So, I re-watched this game from the perspective of Zach Wilson (19-33 for 210 yards, 0 TDs/4 INTs) – I wanted to see how bad it really was. Was there a problem with Wilson that I missed? Is he terrible? Was it the genius of Belichick?

My main notes…

1) It was not anything special Belichick was doing…like some master chess player. Tipped/off hands picks combined with Wilson trying to make miracles happen because his offense is stuck in mud, for reasons we’ll get into.

2) The Jets have a terrible O-Line for pass protection. The Jets are the 2nd-most sacked by % of pass attempts team in the NFL, just behind the worst = Cincy. Wilson rarely ever gets the chance to set his feet in a clean pocket and survey and throw. He’s constantly avoiding, moving around, throwing on the run (for his life).

3) The Jets have the worst WR group in the NFL. The Jets have the worst receiving TE group in the NFL. When Wilson does have time, no one is ever open.

4) The bad O-Line. The garbage passing game weapons. A good Patriots defense – it all left Wilson, for a 2nd week, scrambling for his life and trying to force plays/throws because he’s trying to win games. Wilson’s 4th pick was a 2nd and 28 airmail trying to make something happen. He should’ve done the typical screen/short stuff to try and chop the 3rd-down into something more reasonable…but I get what he was trying to do.

Wilson needs to learn that it’s more important not to have turnovers than it is to try and win games – seriously, NFL coaches would rather lose than have a turnover (all but one of them). I’m not joking. They live to not turn the ball over…as Tom Brady bomb’s away and wins a Super Bowl and about to win an MVP by pressing down on the accelerator by default. Wilson had a number of errant throws in this game, but they were mostly under duress and him trying to make something happen because the Jets were hanging around despite all the negatives that had happened…and WRs rarely open with a window to even throw to.

I walk away from this not dismayed by Zach Wilson at all, but the media is killing him. The NY newspapers and talk show hosts are already debating getting Spencer Rattler or trading for Deshaun Watson. Why? Because they are all idiots that overreact to everything like spoiled babies…or like us Fantasy Football owners who just lost a game the week prior. And like I said in January – the media is going to hate Zach Wilson because he’s hate-able.

With all that, the 4 picks, the fan tantrums, and the media assault – in Dynasty, this is the week to go get him for close to nothing. You don’t pay fair value for this – you try to steal it from those who take their FF cues from local sports talk radio or ESPN or State sponsored NFL Network. Wilson might as well be cut by his Dynasty owners today…go trade for him on super low valuation…but don’t telegraph it, wander into it. He’s an investment for 2022+.

 -- While the media hails Mac Jones (22-30 for 186 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs)…but look at his stat line here. You thought the Jets defense was a great matchup, but they are actually feisty-good and Jones was sacked three times, had all his should’ve-been picks dropped – and that’s within playing a turtle-hiding-in-his-shell style of QB play rife with an average air yards on pass attempts of 4.0.

Wilson has a 9.0 air yards per pass attempt this game. Wilson is 5th in the NFL in attempted air yards on his passes (just ahead of Allen-Brady-Carr-Rodgers-Mahomes). Mac Jones is 30th. That doesn’t end the debate – I’m just saying Wilson is trying to push the ball while Jones throws everything to James White.

If Wilson learns to play more of Mac’s style…things may open up more for him as needed. Right now, Wilson is playing like rookie Brett Favre. Mac is playing like rookie Tua…in ‘safe play’ terms. Mac is way better than Tua, but still very scripted/safe..

You’re screwed if you own any NE WR/TE because Mac is only interested in passes to James White (5-20-1, 6-45-0/6). As the Patriots try to out-safe their opponent on their way to victory. The Jets are two WRs away from being better than the Patriots…and Becton back on the O-Line.

 -- The most interesting revelation in this game…

Michael Carter (11-59-0, 2-29-0/3) IS no joke…and he’s just arrived. You should go trade low for him, if you can ASAP. He might be about to go James White times two for the Jets ahead.

White gets a few carries and leads the team in targets. Carter is about to be 8-10+ carries split rushing role with Ty Johnson plus Carter getting 4-6 catches in games when Wilson is reeled in to play it safe versus always gunning it. This is my prediction, not a guarantee.

If I’m right, or close…it’s a great buy low moment as people think the Jets stink and Carter is a rando change of pace satellite back. He is not, potentially.

Carter looked lost in the preseason, fell to #4 in the rotation for a spell, barely touched the ball Week 1…so, I thought he was nothing to even think about. One game in, credit to Robert Saleh, he abandoned the not-working RB plan of Week 1 and started Ty Johnson (12-50-0) Week 2 and went heavy with Carter…and it was much-much better. The backs combined for 31 carries for 152 rushing yards…4.9 ypc against the vaunted Pats defense.

I want in on Carter stock, cheap (not chasing at fair or full or over price), this week to get ahead of it – for those who are RB desperate and looking to make wild trades for Derrick Henry now (so timely) and whining about Antonio Gibson or Saquon Barkley (and you should), etc. Instead of trading your whole team for one mega-RB…why not eat the elephant one bite at a time. You add Cordarrelle (like you already have), you work with James White for a while, you buy low on Edmonds-Montgomery or here with Michael Carter. Build a committee, cheap, without trading your entire team to solve one issue, creating three others.

 -- Did I mention Jets WRs are hot garbage?

I was excited about the first two games for Braxton Berrios (7-73-0/11)…6.0 catches on 9 targets per game so far…you’ll take that from a nobody WR. However, watching this game back – I forgot to factor in that Berrios kinda sucks. When Jamison Crowder returns…this all goes away, I’d guess.

Oh, and Elijah Moore (4-47-0/8) has shown me nothing yet. Maybe it’s coming but I'm not impressed so far. It’s still early but in a battle of the rookie Moore’s – take Rondale all day long.

 -- Did I mention how good the Jets defense is?

#10 in yards allowed and PPG allowed despite all the offensive issues.  

This defense is flying to the ball and striking big hits. It’s the most energized defense in the NFL aside from Arizona.

Rookie SAF Michael Carter (8 tackles, 1 TFL) looks promising…averaging 6.5 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 0.5 PDs per game so far.

And they STOLE my man Quincy Williams (5 tackles, 1 TFL) off waivers…another brilliant Urban Meyer move. Williams is now starting and is playing well.

Before you get too excited about the Broncos/Teddy & Friends this Week 3…the Jets are #10 in passing yards allowed, and best in league (tied) for the least amount of TD passes allowed (1).

The first person to notice this ahead – credit to Ross Jacobs who told me to be careful on Sutton, etc., this week because of that Jets D. The Jets D isn’t great…but they are OK/scrappy good. Denver may be OK enough this week, but this is not the patsy Jets defense you think.

 -- Ja’Whaun Bentley (9 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD) made a statement to be the full time starting ILB for the Pats this year. He was everywhere in this game…but the Jets still ran for 152 yards/4.9 ypc. So, I’m not 100% sure he’s safe as a starter.

Josh Uche (3 tackles, 2 sacks) now had 3.0 sacks on the season. Someone mentioned him on the Sunday morning Week 2 Video Q&A – kudos to whomever that was. Identify yourself this Sunday so I can commend you!

Snap Counts of Interest:

57 = Elijah Moore

53 = Corey Davis

43 = Berrios

20 = Jeff Smith

16 = Keelan Cole

33 = M Carter

33 = Ty J

07 = Coleman

48 = H Henry

29 = Jonnu

29 = J White

29 = Dam Harris

05 = JJ Taylor

R.C. Fischer

FFM

23 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Bears 20, Bengals 17

The Bears got four turnovers in the 2nd-half…including a pick-six, and they still had to hold off Cincinnati at the end for the narrow victory.

Cincy didn’t play their best game, but they were better than the Bears here but then the string of turnovers (Burrow threw three picks on 3 successive throws…two kinda fluky) helped Chicago overcome and hold on at the end.

Neither team deserved to win, but the Bears snuck by Cincy in the end.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- My main interest in re-watching/studying this game was to see ‘What’s up with Joe Burrow?’ Was it as weak/troubling as I thought it was watching live?

Yes and no.

It’s hard to get my arms and mind wrapped around. Joe Burrow (19-30 for 207 yards, 2 TDs/3 INTs), this game…this season, will have one throw like the old Burrow and then the next one is a weird, flat-footed, low energy pass into danger.

I keep wondering – is the leg injury from last year haunting him? Perhaps, but the dreadful offensive line isn’t helping, whether he still has hesitancy from his injury…or he’s just human and hates getting hit every other drop back (it seems). The most sacked QB by percentage of his throws in the NFL so far…Joe Burrow.

Last season, Joe Burrow was pressured on 24.1% of his pass attempts…this year that number is at 30.3%, which is insane. Tom Brady is pressured 10% of his drop backs, by comparison.

It’s so bad that Burrow seems like he’s looking for the hit before it happens…he’s ready to just fall down versus taking the full hit. That’s not like him. Burrow used to escape the pocket deftly and make plays by extending the life of the play. Last year, Burrow ran 3.7 times per game. This year…just 1 rushing attempt in 2 games.

He just doesn’t seem like himself.

Burrow has no life or vibrance dropping back like he used to. He used to be a miracle worker, always smiling and hustling. Now he seems like a guy heading to his execution on every drop back…happy to get rid of it quickly or cower into an oncoming hit.

The drafting of Ja’Marr Chase instead of Penei Sewell will go down as one of the worst football decisions of the decade, because Chase isn’t very good PLUS the lack of protection is destroying the main piece of the franchise.

I can’t seriously invest in Burrow right now. In redraft, I am WAY the hell out with any other viable options. In Dynasty, I’ll wait for the price to keep dropping and perhaps buy for cheap and just stick him on the bench/#3 QB type role and see if he can snap out of it.

This O-Line isn’t getting any better, so unless the old magical Burrow reappears – he’s dead for FF 2021, and the Bengals real shot at the AFC North slides down the drain.

 -- On the other side of the field, Justin Fields (6-13 for 60 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT, 10-31-0) began his career for real…off of the Andy Dalton injury.

Overall, I thought Fields did OK. Some good, zippy throws…NFL throws. Some panic forced throws into trouble (a horrible pick late that let Cincy back in the game). He ran the ball a lot, which is a great sign. He’s got the job for the next 3-4 weeks with Dalton out…which means he has the job forever.

 -- Fields spread this targeting around but he seemed to favor/have a connection with Darnell Mooney (6-66-0/8) more than any other receiver option. They looked good together.

It seemed like Fields was more forcing the ball to Allen Robinson (2-24-1/4) by comparison…not as natural as his connection with Mooney.

But it’s only one game, in relief. After more time practicing with the 1st-team it may change ahead.

 -- David Montgomery (20-61-0, 3-18-0/4) looks the best I’ve seen him, as I’ve been saying…but he’s also fighting an O-Line problem. Regardless, Montgomery is going to get huge touch counts and should be a solid RB2 with some RB1 hopes as we go here.

Montgomery isn’t a bad acquisition as the price drops, as people think he’s dull…and his numbers here were mostly just that. Rare few guys are ‘all the carries’ guy in the NFL anymore, Montgomery is one of them…and now he’s running better than ever. Still, it’s a bad O-Line and wobbly offense with a rookie-running QB.

The lack of TD opportunities could make this way more RB2 than RB1.

 -- The most impressive ‘thing’ I saw in this game? The Cincinnati defense, for the second week in a row.

The Bengals defense is #10 in yards per game allowed and points per game allowed…shocking for their track record. We started seeing the change in the preseason, and it’s playing out in the regular season. If Burrow was his old self, I’d tell you the Bengals are winning the AFC North. If they had any semblance of an O-Line…

The player that keeps standing out on defense is free agent acquisition CB Chidobe Awuzie (2 tackles, 1 PD). He made some terrific plays on Allen Robinson to halt two TD passes potentially. He really shut down ARob…and last week he gave Justin Jefferson fits when he was on him.

He might take on Diontae Johnson Week 3 (if DJ is active), but probably goes after Chase Claypool if Diontae is out hurt.

Snap Counts of Interest:

47 = Kmet

22 = J Graham

51 = Ja’Marr

50 = Higgins

48 = Boyd

40 = Uzomah

21 = Sample

R.C. Fischer

FFM

23 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Browns 31, Texans 21

Ok, bombshell opening sentence: Had Tyrod Taylor stayed healthy/played the rest of this game (left at halftime with hamstring injury)…the Texans would have won it. Not a fluke win…just the better team winning.

Think of the ramifications of that statement…

Had the Texans won this game, they would have been (2-0) and the clear leaders in the very weak AFC South. And then everyone’s favorite sleeper team for the Super Bowl, the Browns, would have fallen to (0-2) and pure panic would be setting in that they could’ve lost to the lowly Texans.

I am thoroughly unimpressed with this Browns team. The defense isn’t good. The offense is a solid O-Line for a run game mixed with a dull, stiff passing game with like 9 tight ends going out for passes at one time leading the way with Landry-OBJ out. I guess they can still win the AFC North because it’s such a mixed bag of mediocrity, but this is not a Super Bowl team that I see.

Tyrod went out and Davis Mills entered…and the Browns still scuffled to the end. They couldn’t fully put away Houston until late despite Mills trying to hand them turnovers every other throw. This was a win, not-a-win for Cleveland. Houston was the aggressor until Tyrod left…and then they still fought, but just lacked juice in their punches with Mills at QB.

Poor Houston…they had a chance to jump to (2-0) with the rest of the division at (0-2)…but Tyrod is gone, and the Titans had a big comeback win over Seattle. It was so close for Houston. A (2-0) Houston (without Deshaun) with a 2-game lead over the division after two weeks would have make me want to quit trying to predict anything in the NFL. But Houston lost, so all's right with the football world…or so I’ll tell myself.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The best thing I saw in this game? Demetric Felton (2-51-1/2). Dude can just play football.

Felton was a solid+ three-year WR for UCLA turned successful RB his senior year. He went to the Senior Bowl as an RB prospect but was so good as a receiver they moved him to WR…where he was a standout all week.

His Pro Day times were weak, so his draft stock fell from a day two of the draft guy to an eventual 6th-rounder. But he shined in the preseason and then this happened on his first NFL touch: https://youtu.be/1eWC-YhwPOo

Felton is already the best playmaker on the Browns, among the WRs, but you have to know the second OBJ is active…no one else really exists at WR for the Browns. Baker will force every WR thing to OBJ…who will then drop the pass or run the wrong route or complain about the location of the throw or complain he was held. OBJ is kryptonite to wins, but the Browns don’t have the stones to address the problem…they just let the problem walk right into their house and eat everything in the refrigerator and put his shoes/feet up on the tables, etc. The Browns deserve a collapse for not addressing/cutting/trading OBJ and Jarvis Landry, who are the two most overpaid players in the NFL.

All that to say, no way Felton naturally ascends to FF worthiness any time soon. Hell, the Browns were struggling big time in this game, then this Felton TD gave them the lead back, and it was a delightful play that should’ve caught everyone’s attention…but then Felton played only two other snaps in the game. His next catch-and-run was terrific too…but he plays 3 snaps while like 47 tight ends get work otherwise. If you’re not 6’4”+ and 250+ pounds and run a 4.8+ 40-time…then you’re not a dynamic weapon to Kevin Stefanski.  

 -- I’m just saying…about those TEs…

Jarvis Landry was gone quickly from this game and Houston was handling the Browns, going toe-to-toe all 1st-half. No OBJ, now Landry gone – what did the Browns do to adjust to missing their #1 and #2 WRs?

1 target for Donovan Peoples-Jones, 1 target for Anthony Schwartz, Rashard Higgins 2 targets…2 targets for Demetric Felton on 3 whole snaps played.

Four WRs combined for 6 targets combined. If you ignore Felton…it was 4 targets for the established WRs in 55+ minutes of game play without Landry.

But also…

Austin Hooper (5-40-0/5)

Harrison Bryant (4-49-0/4)

David Njoku (2-18-0/3)

Three TEs combined for 12 targets, 11 catches, 107 yards.

This offense is RBs first, then OBJ, then all the TEs, then Landry…and then everything else. Demetric Felton has a ton of roadblocks to get past to make an FF-dent.

 -- So, how did Davis Mills (8-18 for 102 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) look in his forced debut? Not as bad as I thought he would. He played with some poise and control, but he’s such a poor QB prospect that of his 10 incompletions…he’s lucky 5 of them weren’t picks…I mean, defenders with the ball in their hands kicking themselves in disbelief they didn’t come up with the pick. But there were times he was comfortable, went through his reads and made a decent short/medium throw.

Mills wasn’t terrible, but he’s not really ready for this – he’s very much at risk against Carolina defense Week 3.

 -- Two Texans offensive notes…

Mark Ingram (10-41-0, 1-0-0/2) is ruining this team’s scrappy chances to win games. He’s a wasted play with every touch. But you will never convince David Culley otherwise, so don’t think it will change naturally.

Brandin Cooks (9-78-1/14) played his arse off in this game. He’s giving all he’s got for this team and he’s making big plays/tough catches. He’s the heart and soul of the offense. Watching this back, I’m thinking surely the Browns will clamp him down and make Chris Conley (1-13-0/2) try and beat them. Nope.

 -- If Tyrod Taylor is ‘meh’…but got replaced by not-ready Davis Mills…with an offense featuring over-the-hill Mark Ingram and no WR/TE weapons aside from Brandon Cooks – then this supposed newly tooled/upgraded Browns defense should have dominated the Texans.

They did not.

They were on their heels most of the game, especially when Tyrod was in. Even Davis Mills moved the ball against them in spurts. I have not seen one shred of evidence that the Browns defense is anything special for 2021 right now.

The Bears Week 3 should be a nice DST matchup for them, but I’m not that excited.

Snap Counts of Interest:

46 = Peoples-Jones

43 = Higgins

30 = Schwartz

03 = Felton

02 = Landry

42 = Hooper

36 = Njoku

31 = Bryant

35 = Chubb

23 = Hunt

26 = D Johnson

19 = Ingram

14 = Lindsay

38 = Ph Brown

35 = Akins

Ross Jacobs

FFM

23 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Bills 35, Dolphins 0 (By Ross Jacobs)

I don't need to do a long recap of the game here. Everyone knows what happened. The Bills came out firing and knocked Tua out of the game with a rib injury and the rout was on.

The Bills are one of the better teams in the league. They have a top 10 offense and a fringe top 10 defense. Nothing has really changed from last year except the defense looks to be a little better which is scary news for the rest of the league.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, have a really good defense but no offense to back it up. Tua is a joke and much like Darnold and the Panthers, he's going to hold this team back from being a playoff contender. If the Dolphins bite the bullet and trade for Deshaun Watson now they would instantly be a much scarier team.

Fantasy Notes

--I wouldn't worry about Josh Allen (17-33 for 179 yards, 2 TD/1 INT, 5-35-0) just yet. He's played two really good defenses, particularly two really good pass defenses, so far. He looked mostly normal to me, maybe just a touch off. It didn't help matters that it rained during a large chunk of the game. In fact, looking at his schedule, I think he makes an excellent buy low candidate right now. If you have Aaron Rodgers could probably get a deal done easily and even get a few trinkets thrown in for good measure. Remember, even if Allen isn't passing quite as well as last year he still has an extremely high floor due to his rushing prowess. He nearly had a rushing TD here but started his slide just a tick early and was called down at the 1. Allen should be a very safe top 5 QB the rest of the year.

--Devin Singletary (13-82-1, 2-9-0/3) is so obviously Buffalo's best back it's not even funny. He looks spry and elusive while Zach Moss (8-26-2, 2-8-0/2) looks like a tugboat. The only reason Moss should ever be in the game is if you need a yard or two. That's all he's good for. Other than that it should be Singletary in every other situation. Unfortunately, despite the vast difference in total snaps, Moss is still getting far too much of the work and it's rendering Singletary as a RB2 at best.

--Just like with Allen, I wouldn't panic on Stefon Diggs (4-60-1/8) and might even buy him low if possible. He looks fine. It's completely natural for him to have less output against Joe Haden and Xavien Howard, two of the best corners in the league. He's got another tough matchup against William Jackson this week but that hasn't been as threatening as it might have been 2-3 years ago. Diggs is a must start every week.

Emmanuel Sanders (2-48-0/6) and Cole Beasley (4-36-0/4) are the next two options in the Buffalo passing game. They are both WR3 hopefuls with occasional spike games. Find the right matchup and they are more useful in DFS. In redraft it's hard to justify starting them unless necessary.

Dawson Knox (2-17-1/3) looks like he's going to try for a repeat of 2020 where he doesn't offer much receiving upside but catches a TD every other game to make himself marginally useful.

--With Tua out I actually think the Dolphins are getting an upgrade with Jacoby Brissett (24-40 for 169 yards, 0 TD/1 INT). It's not a huge deal and you still don't want Brissett for fantasy, but it should help the team a little. Brissett is a very similar player to Tua in that he's a smart, safe passer, isn't going to make a lot of mistakes, but he comes with the added benefit that he can run a little and he has a bigger arm than Tua. I wouldn't be shocked to see him and this defense jump up and surprise a suddenly hot Raiders team this week.

--You don't want anything related to this Miami backfield, but if you must, Myles Gaskin (5-25-0, 4-21-0/5) is the only option at the moment and only in ppr because of all the dump passes he's catching. He's still not a good player and the offensive line isn't good either.

Malcolm Brown (5-21-0) “split” carries with Gaskin here but not really. He only came into the game in the last 4 or 5 minutes. Ditto Salvon Ahmed (6-17-0). He's the worst of the three backs and was only taking carries because the game got out of hand early.

--Who is the #1 WR in Miami?

Probably Jaylen Waddle (6-48-0/8) although it's not worth much. He's solid but doesn't have a QB that can get him the ball in space. Might be an interesting option if the team ever upgrades though.

The next contender is RC's old favorite DeVante Parker (5-42-0/9). He's still not interested in anything involving contact.

I thought maybe Albert Wilson (4-20-0/6) might provide a little juice, but he looked like crap and dropped at least two easy passes.

Mike Gesicki (3-42-0/6) might have a little life with Brissett at QB. He's a safe option for Jacoby in 1-on-1 coverage.

IDP Notes

--The Bills defense is just so well-coached and disciplined. They don't have many stars but they work together very well as a unit. They'll flirt with top 10 status this year.

Rookie Greg Rousseau (5 tackles, 2 sacks) will get the headlines this week. He was fine and has certainly helped upgrade the pass rush, but everyone on the team was beating up on this Miami offensive line so I wouldn't read too much into it. AJ Epenesa (1 tackle) didn't get much in the stats department, but he was causing just as many problems for Austin Jackson as anyone else.

--On the Dolphins side two players stood out. The obvious one is all-pro CB Xavien Howard (2 tackles, 1 INT, 2 pd). He picked off Josh Allen on a short slant which is really impressive given the nature of the play. The ball was thrown a little behind Diggs, but it was still a great play by Howard. He just makes it so tough on opposing #1 WR's and his counterpart Byron Jones is great at shutting down #2's. Beware starting lesser guys against this Miami secondary.

The other standout was a longtime favorite of mine and RC's, Emmanuel Ogbah (4 tackles, 0.5 sacks). He doesn't have much help but he really played well here and was the only guy consistently getting pressure when Miami didn't blitz. Good to see him playing well and getting some long overdue recognition.

Snap Counts of Interest

51 = Stefon Diggs

50 = Emmanuel Sanders

39 = Cole Beasley

21 = Gabriel Davis

13 = Isaiah McKenzie

43 = Devin Singletary

18 = Zach Moss

55 = DeVante Parker

49 = Jaylen Waddle

41 = Albert Wilson

47 = Mike Gesicki

22 = Durham Smythe

45 = Myles Gaskin

23 = Salvon Ahmed

9 = Malcolm Brown

R.C. Fischer

FFM

22 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Cowboys 20, Chargers 17

If you told me (pregame) that Dak Prescott went to L.A. to face the Chargers, and threw no TD passes with 237 yards passing – I’d tell you the Chargers probably wiped the floor with Dallas. Instead, the Cowboys somehow won this low scoring game on a last second 50+ yard FG.

It’s the second week in a row that the Chargers offense moved the ball fine and then crapped themselves near the red zone. If it isn’t a penalty negating a TD, it’s a dropped pass or a turnover or some other kind of TD-killer. If LAC fixes their red zone issue (which is more odd events than execution failures), they will win 10+ games easily and possibly be a threat to the Chiefs for the AFC West.

Had LAC pulled out this game, I would have considered LAC possibly the AFC West favorites over a now (1-1) KC team, but the Chargers blew a golden opportunity here.

It’s the second week in a row that I walk away thinking – Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore are really coaching well…clever play calls, smart adjustments, going for it on 4th-downs. Another week where I walk away thinking Dallas will win the NFC East if Dak stays alive.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I mostly rewatched this game to see what was up with Justin Herbert (31-41 for 338 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) – two INTs in a game…just one TD pass but back-to-back 330+ passing yard games? What gives? I thought this guy was the next end-all-be-all?

My judgment is – everything is fine. Herbert looks good but has had some bad luck. He lost a 45-yard TD pass to some BS penalty call not helping the play at all. His 2nd INT here was an end zone timing pass to Keenan Allen, only Allen slipped and fell making his cut and face planted so the ball went straight to a DB…might have been a TD otherwise. Herbert also had a Cook TD pass get taken away.

For the 2nd week in a row, Herbert SHOULD’VE had 2-3 TD passes to go with his 330+ yards passing.

I’m a buyer of all the Herbert I can where I don’t have Mahomes-Kyler…or maybe Brady (redraft/6pts).

No reason to panic.

 -- What’s interesting from watching Herbert here…how Mike Williams (7-91-1/10) is pushing towards becoming his #1 WR. I still think Keenan is his guy, but the design of the offense and the attention Allen gets…it’s freeing up Williams to do damage.

And not only are the circumstances in his favor, in general…but Williams looks terrific. I’ve never seen him so spry, so quick on his feet. It’s almost like he knows he has a big free agency coming up. He’s on his way to a mega contract at this rate. No more ‘sit-start’ debates on Williams – it’s a START until further notice.

We all look back at our redrafts and kick ourselves for things (never congratulate ourselves for great picks or great avoidances) – my main boogeyman thought from August redrafts? I got a lot of Mike Williams all summer, but in August redrafts, a few times, I’d let him sit out there as I took some stupid RB or whatever and I’d keep saying…”I’ll get Williams next round,” and then I’d bypass and say it again…and again…and then someone would take him and I’d be mad but then right back to chasing fairy tales. I’d like to punch that version of myself in the face for passing up on one of the best pure value picks of August/redraft 2021…and I was all over it all summer, and in most redrafts but the ones I missed/skipped…I hate myself.

We all have redraft regrets. That one is my main one. It was so simple…it was right there as such a value and I knew it, but I shrugged at it because I needed a thousand more RB lottery tickets (who are all hurt or cut from my rosters already).

 -- Tony Pollard (13-109-1, 3-31-0/3) had a heck of a game here but note he is still only working 25-35% of the snaps…and Week 1 he had 3 carries for 14 yards. I’m not sure I’d say he’s a ‘start’ just yet because he had a hot Week 2. He looks great, but the allure of Zeke (16-71-1, 2-26-0/2) is still so strong over that whole organization that Pollard will always be ‘the other guy’ until EE gets hurt/down-and-out.

I hope Pollard gets more run, but this is probably his 2021 lot in life…a 70/30 snap share split and best case 60/40 touch count split…with Zeke as the 60 or 70. It’s a fluid situation…I could change my tune if we see another closer to 50/50 split Week 3 again.

 -- Brandon Staley coached/coordinated the Rams 2020 to the #1 defense in the league last year. He’s brought that magic to the other L.A. – this Chargers defense is very smart/good. They are #7 in PPG allowed YTD and they just held Dak Prescott to 237 yards passing with 0 TD passes…that’s no small feat.

The Chargers defense is a potential top 5 in the league, but their schedule ahead is not great pre-Week 7 BYE. Mahomes-Carr-Baker/CLE-Lamar the next 4 weeks…QBs who do not allow big points to opposing DSTs due to their solid O-Lines or ability to not get sacked/turn the ball over at a high rate.

The LAC-DST could be a thing after their BYE Week 7 for sure. If they throw Mahomes fits this week…then everyone is going to be on them Week 4.

If you’re thinking there have been 5-8 teams I’ve named as potential top 5 DSTs for 2021 this past week, then you’re correct. That’s where we are in the NFL/FF…there’s several top defense candidates – but no obvious slam dunk/elite ones. Probably trumping everything/every metric/every analysis to be the best defense in the NFL is: ‘What defense is facing JAX or HOU this week?’

I think Arizona shows the most ‘it’ for a defense (to me) – but when they face a better offense, we’re at risk like with all DSTs (see: Week 2 v. MIN compared to Week 1 v. TEN). There is no Bears 2019 DST or DEN 2017-2018 DST right now…and maybe with the league having so many great QBs now that there will never be a great DST again.

This is a two DST season…one you have a strong hunch/analysis/scouting on (ARI, CAR, NO, BUF, etc.) and the one you see ahead next week and the week after that’s playing HOU-JAX-MIA…NYJ-NYG, etc., to use in a pinch when your ace DST has a bad or weaker matchup.

 -- The Dallas defense isn’t a threat for the top 5 in the league, but they aren’t terrible…and they’re young and improving. If they didn’t lose Demarcus Lawrence, they might be a defense that hit a decent stride in a few weeks…but losing Lawrence was rough.

They moved Micah Parsons (2 tackles, 1 sack, 4 QB hits) to the edge rush spot in Lawrence’s place…and that’s not a bad stop gap at all, but things would be better with Parsons back at LB and Lawrence off the edge.

That Parsons DROY bet looks even better with him making this positional move…it shows his flexibility on top of everything else – how many guys could be a rookie signal caller Week 1 at linebacker, then move to rush end Week 2 and get 4 QB hits?

 -- Jayron Kearse (6 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 PD) has stepped up nicely with the Donovan Wilson injury, Kearse is averaging 8.5 tackles per game his first two games as a new starter. He’s looked very solid and energetic, but I assume Wilson takes right back over upon his return from groin injury.

Snap Counts of Interest:

42 = Cook

34 = Parham

44 = Zeke

21 = Pollard

45 = Schultz

29 = Jarwin

60 = Lamb

60 = Amari

36 = Ced Wilson

45 = Ekeler

16 = Justin Jackson

10 = Roundtree

R.C. Fischer

FFM

22 September 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 2: Raiders 26, Steelers 17

It’s hard to get a full read on the Raiders, or Steelers, from this game because right before the game started, we all found out that Joe Haden and Devin Bush were going to be inactive…and then if that wasn’t bad enough, T.J. Watt went down in-game early. It was a perfect storm for the Raiders to thrive/win.

The Raiders pretty much led wire-to-wire. The Steelers hung in there for a while, holding LV to field goals in the 1st-half…but then the TDs opened up and the Steelers offense is falling apart in 2021, so they couldn’t answer back like the Steelers of old.

Son (or daughter), we’re going to have to have a serious talk about the Steelers offense (and we will below) and how that relates to Fantasy things.

The Raiders are (2-0) and credit Jon Gruden for out-coaching his opponents the first two weeks, , despite having the lesser talented roster, and more credit for energizing this group – his team is playing with heart and energy. They should be (0-2)…because Baltimore handed them the win in Week 1, and then the Steelers lost 27% of their defensive starters for this game…which were the three most talented guys they had, so it was like 50%+ of the real defense was gone…the Raiders just happened to be the opponent of good fortune on the schedule. The Vegas schedule should now allow them to get to (4-1)…before their typical later-in-season collapse. Enjoy it for the now!

Fantasy Player Notes…

OK, let’s have a serious discussion about the Steelers offense…

In Fantasy, we don’t have time to fool around. Many of us don’t have time to go through several more weeks trying to see if there will be a turn upward. Sure, it’s possible this offense advances as the season goes on – new O-Line and new O-C and all, but I have to judge what I see and sense now…and I see and sense that this Steelers offense blows…because they have a dreadful O-Line and a terrible head coach for offense.

The days of Big Ben just slinging it, willing things to happen to save the day…this O-Line is not going to help that, if Ben can even do that at a high level anymore. Ben looks fine enough, but he has no time (so he quick throws a ton to try and move the offense) and no real run game (again) to assist him (the #32 run game in the NFL right now).

I don’t know how this offense gets better from here. Bad O-Lines = problems. Ben isn’t getting any younger, and Mike Tomlin isn’t getting any smarter. It’s not the worst offense in the world…it’s just not a top 10…or top half of the league one. #20 in 3rd-down conversions YTD, and #24 in total yards and points scored. Facing Buffalo Week 1 is skewing the numbers bad, so there is that – but in a game against Las Vegas, as improved as the Raiders might be, at home…the Steelers looked as bad on offense as they did Week 1.

I just don’t see how this gets radically better because it’s an O-Line and coaching issue at its heart…and how can they fix that on the fly? The Steelers #30 in yards per carry on the ground offensively and dead last in rushing yards. Nice 1st-round draft pick in 2021, morons…

Let’s go through each position group:

 -- Big Ben (27-40 for 295 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is OK, but you just watched a game where the opposing QB is lesser-thought of name-wise but is better for the NFL now…and for Fantasy.

We discussed this on the Video Q&A Tuesday night – Kirk Cousins is better in every way now than Big Ben…better O-Line, better run game, better WR trio, better playing conditions for the passing game. Derek Carr might be on par with Big Ben for the NFL, but with his bad O-Line he has advantages with playing conditions, opponents/schedule, and his lack of a run game is forcing him to throw more…and he’s just as good/better at it than Ben. Carr leads the NFL in passing attempts after two weeks.

I thought the bad O-Line would lead to more radical passing attempts from Ben, and it might happen as we go on -- but guys like Cousins-Carr are facing similar situations…but are just better at with better weather conditions to throw in over time over the season. This is a week where everyone starts chasing Cousins-Carr again, but they still don’t fully respect them…if given a choice, I want in on Cousins (the #10 QB in FF YTD) over Ben, and Carr. And Carr over Ben for FF.

 -- Diontae Johnson (9-105-0/12) is still Ben’s guy…and that’s not changing. Knee issue aside, Diontae is a legit WR1 PPR given the circumstances.

Chase Claypool (3-70-0/9) is a Greek god of WRs, but all we see every week is Ben just heaving him passes deep…jump balls, which is great sometimes, but Claypool is not landing enough of them to fully pop for FF WR1 hopes. There’s more and more Claypool talk from Ben and Tomlin…they know there’s a nuclear bomb in their possession, but so far it looks like they have no idea how to use it. Six catches this season on 14 targets – a 43% catch rate is ridiculous and a sign of a Ben/offense problem. Claypool seems stuck as a WR2-3 right now rather than a WR1-2 that he should be. They literally have no plan to get him the ball, to lead the way.

We might get a Claypool bump ahead if Diontae goes down, and thus Claypool is forced into real WR work…and blows up, then it may dawn on Ben/Tomlin they need to change strategy on Claypool. I’m holding Claypool right now, but it’s getting aggravating watching him go to waste. He’ll have a pop game soon and we’ll all be delighted again…but I want to see Claypool with a purpose, and we’re not getting that yet…and it’s a sign just how dysfunctional this offense is right now, when you can’t exploit Claypool for big plays consistently.

 -- Najee Harris (10-38-0, 5-43-1/5) is wildly overrated, but he’s going to be OK for Fantasy numbers. My greater point of constantly berating that Najee sucks is more to drive home the point that Najee is way overvalued. He’s a nice RB2 +/- for FF, but people see him as the 2nd-3rd-best RB in all of Fantasy in days to come. The most value, redraft, you’ll get out of Najee is trading him for the world.

Every week that goes by where he’s exposed as human…his value declines a little more, drip-by-drip.

If Najee had a better O-Line and better offense in general, he’d be a nice RB1 on volume. He’s not bad, but he’s not so good he can Derrick Henry his way through all the problems. You were sold a bill of goods on Najee…the public bought and paid for it and is still willing to.

Remember how excited you were for Clyde Edwards-Helaire last year? How about today? Jonathan Taylor going to be a boss in 2021? Excited about that yet? The value of hot rookie name RBs escapes quickly but Najee has Saquon super-value…he’ll hold value longer than most because of the mega-hype.

Najee is avg/good with a terrible O-Line…and there’s a reason why the Steelers are #32 in the NFL in rushing.

 -- I want to like Pat Freiermuth (4-36-0/4) but he’s stuck in this mess too…and he’s not going to get looks above the WRs, or Najee…and they need him to stay in and block a bunch due to the crap O-Line…so, Patty F’s 2021 FF season upside is capped.

Over to the Raiders…

 -- You saw a pretend FF-audition game of Derek Carr (28-37 for 382 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) vs. Big Ben here…and how do you not walk away thinking Carr is the better FF option? Carr had another TD or two and 20-40+ yards stolen from him in this game…or it would’ve been back-to-back 400+ yard passing games the first two games of the season.

Carr is improving, being allowed to cut it loose…and can run a little bit here and there. Ben is declining and doesn’t offer rushing hopes. In general, I like them both about the same as 2021 NFL QBs…but Carr is ascending, and Ben looks muted. Why wouldn’t I switch FF-horses here?

 -- The best news of all is buried this far into the report…

Bryan Edwards (3-40-0/3) is ready for a breakout. Now, he may not soon because Carr never looks for him…but we’re getting closer to that happening.

Rewind the tape…

Last week, I pooh-poohed the Edwards breakout after Week 1 because I did not believe Edwards was a desired part of the passing game…just a guy out there available. Three targets in Week 2 later, my point was proven.

You may have sold Edwards off ahead of Week 2 because I was saying I was open to it…in redraft. If anyone was hyped about him after Week 1, I wasn’t diamond handing him…I’d sell if the price was right. https://youtu.be/alwdUofyGGg

This week, I’m still not above selling him (redraft)…but his weak stats sucked away the little value pop he had last week. I’m not just giving him away. So, I’m back into Diamond Hands mode on Edwards here -- what I saw in this game was the first turn upwards that I’ve seen with Edwards. He’s running routes with confidence and getting open (Carr just isn’t looking yet). He’s catching everything thrown his way…catching like a true #1 dominator. He had a sweet, simple TD catch before the half…called back for a penalty elsewhere. Almost had another TD late. He actually should have had 5 catches for 50+ yards and a TD or two here.

Still, nothing seems on purpose. It’s all random. They aren’t making Edwards a thing yet…but I believe the wagons are circling that it might take another turn higher in the next week or two.

I envision it will go like this: Edwards will have a game in the next few weeks where Waller is totally taken out and the Raiders plan to expose an opponent’s weak secondary mismatch on Edwards by going heavy on Edwards…and once Carr and the world sees how successful, then it will be hard for them to ignore it ahead.

Week 3 v. MIA probably isn’t that time. Week 4 at LAC might see that glimpse, because LAC won’t plan for Edwards, they’ll double down on Waller (Staley is no fool). Week 5 vs. CHI might also be that time.

I don’t know if it will be Week 4…Week 14…or Week 1 of 2022, but I’ll keep saying the same thing – it’s coming. Redraft you can bet against that Carr will make this happen if you want, you might be right --  but in Dynasty, you want to hold your positions or acquire cheap after this weaker Week 2 (on paper) and as his Week 1 big play event in OT is forgotten.

Edwards is going to be a star someday…I just don’t know when. I saw the first real encouraging sign of it in this game.

 -- Is the Vegas-DST for real?

No, probably not. I think they’re better than our 2021 preconceptions. We all thought this might be a bottom 5 DST…but it looks like they might be a #15-20 range one…possibly useful in a good matchup…emerging as we go with a lot of young defenders. Might be OK Weeks 3 (MIA) and 5 (CHI) but not a sure thing…just a possible thing.

Side Note: Solomon Thomas (2 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 QB hits) is either turning a corner, or the Steelers O-Line is worse than we thought. I don’t know that it is Thomas, but we’ll keep watching to see if he’s finally figured it out.

Wrap it up the way we always should with the Steelers: https://youtu.be/Ag7598SYhM0

Snap Counts of Interest:

54 = JuJu

49 = Diontae

43 = Claypool

12 = J Washington

53 = Najee

03 = Snell

33 = Freiermuth

24 = Ebron

61 = Waller

49 = Edwards

44 = Ruggs

29 = Renfrow

11 = Zay Jones

47 = Drake

19 = P Barber