R.C. Fischer

FFM

19 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 6: Cardinals 37, Browns 14

I think it’s OK to add the Arizona Cardinals to the top NFL teams discussion…no longer just talking about the AFC teams as all the best in the biz. They whooped the Browns here, but to be fair…the Browns didn’t have Nick Chubb, but even worse – they had some pretty suspect penalties called against them in the 1st-half that pushed Arizona drives and began to break the back of the Browns. Nine penalties for 88 yards against Cleveland here…and some pretty ridiculous ones. Arizona might have won comfortably without the penalties, but it sure didn’t help the Browns.

Arizona played a great game…because how could they survive without their head coach?!?! They played their best game. The Raiders were nice without Jon Gruden. Head coaches are wildly overrated. Players are underrated (by head coaches).

The Cardinals are now (6-0)…and their schedule is now begging them to go 14-15 wins if Kyler stays healthy. A top NFL offense, and THEE top NFL defense along with Buffalo. They will win the NFC West and fight Dallas, and maybe Green Bay, for the #1 seed in the NFC.

Cleveland is now (3-3)…but don’t dismiss them as ‘average’ – they have losses to Arizona, Kansas City, and the Chargers. And they weren’t overwhelmed by any of those teams, on tape/to me. The Browns bigger issue is health…they have issues in the backfield, and with Baker, and every week 1-2 starters out on defense. If Baker can heal up…the Browns should win 11 or so games and battle Baltimore for the AFC North…but then could be the shock run in the playoffs if they can get everyone healthy. The Browns are better than the Ravens, I believe…but the Ravens have caught breaks so far this season that the Browns have not.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The Browns lost their heart & soul player in this game…Kareem Hunt (14-66-0, 3-12-0/3). Carted off with a calf injury that will put him out 4-6 weeks…maybe longer.

Nick Chubb missed the game with a calf injury…and he’s 50-50 for Week 7 because it’s a Thursday night game.

D’Ernest Johnson (1-2-0, 1-9-0/1) not Demetric Felton (2-14-0/2), in my opinion, will be the lead back if both Chubb and Hunt are gone Week 7. He’s been a backup RB in Cleveland for years. Felton has played almost exclusively WR in the preseason, practice, and in games. Johnson is the right call for FF.

Johnson is a lesser/equal Alvin Kamara in my eyes. Should already be playing more snaps in an NFL backfield, but when you have Chubb-Hunt, there’s no room for Johnson. Week 7 there finally might be an opportunity for D’Ernest – against a Denver defense missing it’s two opening day starting interior linebackers.

Be careful on waivers spending on D’Ernest -- because Chubb could be back Week 7, and then Johnson is useless. If Chubb returns Week 8, Johnson will NOT be in the Hunt/split role. Last year, Chubb got hurt and then Hunt took 90%+ of the work with Johnson playing a minor role until Chubb returned. You are at risk of getting a one-week rental, at best, from D’Ernest.

 -- Standout player in this game…no doubt, it’s Donovan Peoples-Jones (4-101-2/5).

Sometimes a WR has a good game, and we get eyes on them because they’re athletic and in a good spot like a Kalif Raymond was for a few weeks, or they’re just a good/solid WR like Tim Patrick. Some WRs are in the right place at the right time for a pop game. This is not what I am seeing with DPJ.

This performance was like what a real #1 WR would produce/show. Here watch and see: https://youtu.be/uqPR0UqOfY4

The guy didn’t have a basic catch in the whole game…every catch was a highlight reel, against the top cover team in the NFL. I was WILDLY impressed with this performance…and I saw some blips of it last week but didn’t fully see the change happening. I saw it in this game. His last two games: 4.5 rec., 85.5 yards, 1.0 TDs per game.

Now, I’m not so sure this works next week or consistently the rest of the season. Odell Beckham is a whiner and tends to demand targets/Baker feeds the baby. When Jarvis Landry returns, it pushes DPJ out into the cold some more…or at least it used to. It may be all different now…Baker may have found his real #1 WR. This DPJ bump the last two weeks has occurred with Baker looking less to OBJ and more to DPJ.

This may be more of a Dynasty deeper roster hold/acquire and sit and wait/watch than a ‘rush him onto a redraft roster immediately’ situation, but I might put him on some redrafts this week as a sit and hold and watch. In 2022, OBJ-Landy should be long gone -- and Peoples-Jones left as the real veteran/experienced guy with Baker. Who the Browns sign or draft could muddy it up some more.

 -- We also have the Cleveland issue of Baker Mayfield (19-28 for 234 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) playing with an injured labrum. People-Jones is a downfield worker…and how good is Baker’s arm right now?

Baker is going to try and play through it, but Case Keenum might be the better option this week for CLE…and DPJ. I think the odds Baker goes on IR is 60-670%, and the odds he’s out for Week 7 TNF is about 85-90%. Then we have no idea what Keenum will prefer to throw to.

 -- I love what I saw of Peoples-Jones this week, but I’d rather hold Rondale Moore (3-10-0, 3-16-0/4). Two more carries as a pure tail back this week, again. Three carries total. He’s starting to get as many carries as ‘starting RB’ Chase Edmonds (4-46-0, 3-4-0/4).

Plus, Moore is getting good bubble screen work. He’s getting good touches, but no big game off it this week. The Cardinals have so many options Kyler is using…we might not get past WR3/Flex for RoMo.

 -- Did David Njoku (1-6-0/2) follow up his huge Week 5 game? Nope. Back to a nobody. False alarm, I guess. But Arizona is so good in coverage of the TEs, I’m not fully closing the door on it yet.

 -- The Browns-DST was one of the hottest DSTs on FF a few weeks ago, but then giving up 47 and 37 the last two weeks ended that heat. We have to consider that they got beat up by LAC and ARI…two of the best offenses in football.

Four of the next 5 weeks, they are NOT playing top offenses.

Week 7 = vs. DEN

Week 8 = vs. PIT

Week 9 = at CIN (might be OK)

Week 10 = at NE

Week 11 = DET

I still think this Browns defense is a top 10 NFL defense, and they’re about to go back to a favorable schedule against porous O-Line teams. Could be a sweet run about to happen.

 -- The Cardinals defense, for my money, at full strength, is the best defense in football that I see with my own two eyes. I said that they were the best/the wow of the preseason and then jumped fully on it for FF in Weeks 1-2, where I didn’t have Buffalo (and some where I did). Now, they are the #2 scoring DST in FF and they have held down the Titans, Rams, and Browns this season.

Week 7 is a DST gift from God…vs. HOU.

And I’m actually not that afraid of Week 8 vs. GB anymore…between the excellence of the ARI-DST and the decline of the GB offense.

Arizona is almost becoming a no-bench policy DST, no matter who they oppose.

Snap Counts of Interest:

46 = Peoples-Jones

37 = Higgins

32 = OBJ

44 = Hooper

26 = Njoku

17 = Bryant

41 = Hunt

12 = D’Ernest

68 = AJG

67 = Hopkins

64 = Kirk

42 = Rondale

41 = Conner

28 = Edmonds

Ross Jacobs

FFM

17 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Buccaneers 45, Dolphins 17 

Nothing very surprising happened here. The Dolphins played about as well as could be expected and hung in with the champs until midway through the second quarter before the dam broke and the Bucs ran away with it.

Miami is floundering. They have a decent core of players but no real star power or ways to hurt opposing teams. Tua coming back isn't going to magically fix their problems either. Luckily for them they get three of the worst teams in the league in their next four games so that should help right the ship a little. Their path to .500 doesn't look good though. RC and I should cash our Miami Under bets easily.

The Bucs, however, are right on track for what we've been predicting all year. They are a high flying, air-it-out offense with Brady calling the shots, and the defense is just trying to get a stop or two to seal the game. The elite defense of 2020 is gone. Now they are playing like the Chiefs with Mahomes or the Saints for so many years with Brees. Try to score 30 points and hope it's enough. Most weeks it will be. The Bucs have a relatively easy schedule and should have no problem finishing with a top 2-3 seed in the NFC.

Fantasy Notes

--During the preseason I noted how the Bucs offense seemed to be going all-in on Brady chucking bombs all over and here we are. Through five weeks Brady leads the league in yards with 1767 (353.4/g) and is second to Mahomes in TD's with 15. Depending on your scoring system he's right at the top as well, probably second behind Mahomes. The schedule is favorable and barring injury Brady should be able to maintain a similar pace all year.

--Last week I went over the three Bucs receivers and how they were all being targeted fairly evenly by Brady and how every week two of them seemed to get nice fantasy scoring while the third had a more normal output.

This week it was Mike Evans (6-113-2/8) and Antonio Brown (7-124-2/8) that flourished while Chris Godwin (7-70-0/11) was somewhat left out of the party despite receiving the greatest number of targets. Who knows which ones will score next week. All I know is all three guys are fantasy useful and at least WR2's.

Note that while Brown had the best fantasy week he also had a majority of his points come from one awesome catch and run play. I wouldn't necessarily discount this however as Brown has proven to be the most explosive of the three and the one Brady looks to for big plays. He's going to have his down weeks occasionally but he's still a big part of this offense.

--I speculated last week that Leonard Fournette (12-67-1, 4-43-0/5) might start to dominate the split between him and Ronald Jones (5-21-0, 1-15-0/1) and that's precisely what we got here. Jones barely saw the field until late in the game and looks to be falling behind even Giovani Bernard (4-21-0, 2-14-1/2) a bit. This could all change any given week, but I think for now it's safe to roll with Fournette as a nice safe option.

*RC NOTE: I am told that Gio B. is starting to fall out of favor in Tampa Bay. RoJo is already in a quasi doghouse. If you can buy Leonard Fournette as a random RB2 guy in a backfield mix, you should try and buy low or buy reasonable -- he’s got RB1 potential. More on this tonight on the Video Q&A.

--In Gronkowski's absence it has been OJ Howard and not Cameron Brate that has played the majority of snaps. It hasn't translated to fantasy points yet, but if Gronk is out for a while there will be a game eventually where Howard breaks a big play and finishes with a huge game. Good luck trying to time it though.

--God bless Jacoby Brissett (27-39 for 275 yards, 2 TD/1 INT). He is trying so hard to keep this team in games. Unfortunately though he's just not very good and neither is anyone else on this offense. The blocking isn't good, the pass catchers can't separate, and the RB's are led by the uninspiring Gaskin. I don't see any hope for this group as a whole.

--There was some concern last week about Myles Gaskin (5-25-0, 10-74-2/10) and his role after he took a backseat to Malcolm Brown. It was my opinion that the fear was unfounded and Gaskin would return to normal this week and he did. If you played him here, congratulations, but don't count on this every week. He isn't catching 10 passes and scoring twice every week. That was simply the result of game flow and Tampa's aggressiveness. Most weeks he'll be closer to 10 carries for 35-40 yards to go along with 3 catches for another 20 or so. It's decent work but not worth much for fantasy unless you're incredibly desperate.

Brown was a ghost here which further cements my guess that last week was a matchup thing. Of course, that does mean that it's always possible Miami could turn to Brown again if they think he works better for the game plan than Gaskin. Just something to be aware of in case you're starting Gaskin for whatever reason.

--As this passing game dies with Brissett all the WR's are getting taken down. There's no one player they lean on anyways and it renders this group impossible to start with any confidence. With DeVante Parker out this week it opened things up for Preston Williams (3-60-0/5) to resurface. He looked pretty good, definitely Miami's best receiver for what that's worth. I'd love to see what he could do with a real QB, but this is what we're stuck with. Shame. If Parker is out Williams could be worth a dart throw, but the second Parker is back Williams can be safely dropped. Miami has shown no inclination to actually use him.

IDP Notes

--Ok, ok, Devin White (8 tackles) was the top tackler for Tampa this week...but only because Lavonte David (2 tackles, 1 sack) got hurt in the first half. David will be out for a few weeks to heal his ankle. This does potentially open up things for White a little, but I still don't trust him as this defense falls apart around him.

Snap Counts of Interest

58 = Mike Evans

51 = Chris Godwin

42 = Antonio Brown

46 = Leonard Fournette

17 = Giovani Bernard

10 = Ronald Jones

44 = OJ Howard

28 = Cameron Brate

43 = Jaylen Waddle

40 = Preston Williams

42 = Mike Gesicki

36 = Durham Smythe

21 = Adam Shaheen

37 = Myles Gaskin

11 = Salvon Ahmed

5 = Malcolm Brown

Ross Jacobs

FFM

16 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Titans 37, Jaguars 19 

The score says this game was a one-sided blowout, but I'm here to tell you that the Jaguars played their best game all year and were at least equal to the Titans if not better. Surprised? So was I.

Things were going wrong for Jacksonville almost immediately. They lost a catch and fumble on the very first drive that Tennessee returned for a TD. 7-0 Titans.

On their next drive, James Robinson got a wide open hole and busted off a 58 yard run that would set the Jaguars up for a TD. They missed the extra point and it was 7-6.

Tennessee got the ball and Tannehill nearly threw a pick 6, but Shaq Griffin dropped the ball. A terrible roughing the passer call would save the Titans drive and they scored to make it 14-6. The Jaguars came right back with another score themselves and the game was 14-13.

The Titans would score yet again to extend their lead to 21-13, but the Jaguars weren't done. They drove down the field yet again, but failed to capitalize by missing a FG. The Titans, however, now had good field position and drove for a field goal of their own right before the 1st half ended. The Jaguars were down 24-13, but it was only bad luck that the score wasn't closer. Could they mount any sort of comeback?

They certainly didn't quit and it looked like they might build some momentum in the 2nd half when Chaisson sacked Tannehill and thought he got a fumble, but a Tennessee challenge upheld the incomplete pass call and the Titans retained possession. Henry would eventually score on the drive and the Titans were up 31-13. The game looked over.

Jacksonville still wasn't done though and put together a nice drive capped off by a Lawrence run for a TD. They missed the 2-point conversion and it was 31-19 Titans. The Jaguars stopped Tennessee's next possession, got the ball back, and drove down to the 1 yard line. An inaccurate pass, a dropped pass, and a baffling rush attempt to Carlos Hyde would see the Jaguars turn the ball over on downs.

It was an incredibly stupid decision to give Hyde the most important carry of the game with a chance to get back within a score, despite the fact that Robinson had been the far superior back all game and all year. Just the latest misstep by the genius Urban Meyer.

The last Tennessee score would come with under 2 minutes left as the Titans just tried to run out the clock.

The Jaguars absolutely did not give up at any point in this game although they obviously have plenty of reasons to. It was just not their day, and a combination of bad luck events kept them from winning here. Unless they fall apart because of Meyer, I think this team might actually be getting their legs under them. The defense is on the come (they really had Henry bottled up for most of the game and were getting after Tannehill). The offense isn't a terrible mess anymore and are starting to put some things together. Don't sleep on them this week against Miami.

As for the Titans, I really don't see a good team here. They are 3-2 with their wins coming over a beaten up Colts team, a somewhat lucky win over the lowly Jaguars, and a come from behind win over the Seahawks. They got spanked opening day by the Cardinals and beaten by the Jets somehow. Three of their next four weeks are the Bills, Chiefs, and Rams. If they lose to the Colts in the middle of that then it's entirely possible they are looking at a 3-6 hole with the Colts coming on fast. Things are about to get ugly in Tennessee over the next month.

Fantasy Notes

--I still don't particularly like Trevor Lawrence (23-33 for 273 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 7-28-1), but he's starting to settle in a little bit. He still throws some really dumb passes, but I've seen fewer of them in recent weeks. I still think of him as a combination of a young Alex Smith and Carson Wentz.

--James Robinson (18-149-1) has been on an absolute tear recently. Hopefully everyone was able to get in on him before the blowup with the early warning from RC. His situation hasn't changed at all.

--The new kid on the block in Jacksonville is Dan Arnold (6-64-0/8) and boy does he look good. I was complaining about his usage in Carolina the first few weeks, and that doesn't seem to be an issue here. Jacksonville went and got him with a purpose, and I'm shocked how quickly he's gotten integrated. This was no fluke. He was the main look for Lawrence all day long. I see no reason to fade this connection, so if you're dying at TE and can't get in on Schultz or Knox then this is where to go. Arnold could be a top 8 TE the rest of schedule.

--Sorry RC, but much as I wanted there to be a Jamal Agnew (6-41-0/7, 1-8-0) uprising, it isn't happening yet. Agnew is involved with the offense, at least he's on the field a lot, but not involved to the degree we want to see. He's just a random option right now. 4 of his 6 catches came in the final minute of the game as Jacksonville was trying to score a grace TD. There was no real move to have him involved to a significant degree early in the game. He does look as fast and strong as I've ever seen him though. He looks like a jacked up version of Deonte Harris. If Meyer has any sense at all they will start giving him a couple more carries and a few bubble screens.

--The WR that was more involved, despite seeing far fewer snaps than Agnew, was Tavon Austin (5-54-0/5) for whatever reason. He's the same player he always was. Small and reasonably quick. I guess you could try to use him as a desperation WR3 play, but I wouldn't.

--If you want a Jacksonville WR it has to be Marvin Jones (1-25-0/6). He and Lawrence couldn't connect here, but Jones is definitely the guy Lawrence looks for at WR. He's a decent WR2.5 most weeks.

--Laviska Shenault (1-58-0/3) showed off his strength on a long catch and run where he broke multiple tackles. He isn't heavily involved right now and can't really be used for fantasy, but it looks like the Jaguars are changing how they use him. Previously he was a short ball player, lots of bubble screens and drags. Now he's starting to work more medium range and is running actual routes. He might be better off this way as more of a possession receiver than trying to work the short stuff with his lack of burst. Think of him like a big Terrace Marshall, something like that.

--Why are we still fading Derrick Henry (29-130-3) in the year 2021? Henry is an institution at this point. He has 141 carries on the year for an average of 28.2 per game. He's taken at least 28 carries in every game but the Arizona game where they got smacked. He's on pace for 479 carries. The all-time carry record is 416 by Larry Johnson. Now I'm sure that's going to come down a little bit as the season wears on, but come on, you can't deny this any longer. He IS the Tennessee offense.

--Ryan Tannehill (14-22 for 197 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-21-0) had another muted day, and that was for two reasons. 1) Jacksonville's defensive line was all over him. And 2) They didn't need to throw very much. Nearly everything he connected on was a simple drag route over the middle. He's still playing the same smart, safe football he has for the last two years. So far it's just been a larger dose of Henry and less passing. I do think he will trend up a little, but don't expect massive gains, just a bit closer to his averages from 2019 and 2020. 220-250 yards and 1-2 TD's per game.

--Ok time for a rare point of departure from RC. After watching this game I think that AJ Brown (3-38-0/6) actually is a good buy-low candidate. I saw nothing wrong with his knees. He was moving fine. Caught the ball well. The missed connections had nothing to do with Brown and everything to do with Jacksonville's defensive ends hanging all over Tannehill. Tennessee knew they didn't have to do much here. They just needed to keep feeding Henry with the lead and let Jacksonville hang themselves. They will have to throw a lot more in the coming weeks to try and keep themselves in games. With Julio out, Brown is far and away their best option, and I don't think he'll be double covered because teams are so hell-bent on trying (and failing) to stop Henry right now.

You can't overpay though. We want him cheap because that's what his owner thinks he's worth right now. He only has name value, but he's been “killing” his owner so you can bet they are ready to dump him and only haven't because of last year. We want to take a nice cheap look to see if he's got bounce back WR1.5 potential. There might not be enough value if his owner is being stubborn, but I think it's worth a shot at least. There aren't a ton of deals to be had right now, but this looks like one potential one to me.

*RC NOTE: I’ll disagree with Ross’s disagree. I went and rewatched AJB’s Week 5 again, just him, to get another look. I’m more down on AJB after than I was before. He doesn’t look the same. He’s not moving with the same burst. The results are way down. The connection rate is terrible. I’m not paying a still too-high price for this buy low...who is not a buy low because everyone thinks he’ll turn around. 

Something is wrong. He may be secretly hurt and playing through it and is 70% effective...and will improve with time. Could happen...then you got a buy low discussion, but all I can do is see what I see...and I see an entire 2021 where the output in every game is off, he looks slower on tape. I don’t want to buy into a potential problem...for the price it would cost. I’ll just run with Tim Patrick if I have to. If he makes a turn soon, and I missed out on the upside...I’ll be able to live with myself in the morning. Something isn’t right here, to me. 

‍

IDP Notes

--This Jacksonville defensive line is starting to come on. Josh Allen (7 tackles, 0.5 sack, 1 pd) and K'Lavon Chaisson (6 tackles, 1 sack, 2 tfl) were all up in Tannehill's grill all day even if they didn't always get the sack themselves. Two weak offensive lines coming up for them against the Dolphins and the Seahawks with Geno. Just keep in mind that Tua is probably back this week and likes to dump the ball like a hot potato, so the sacks might be limited there.

Snap Counts of Interest

66 = Marvin Jones

52 = Laviska Shenault

45 = Jamal Agnew

24 = Tavon Austin

48 = James Robinson

18 = Carlos Hyde

52 = Dan Arnold

22 = Chris Manhertz

R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Cardinals 17, 49ers 10

What an interesting, weird, ugly at times game.

The Trey Lance debut. The undefeated Cardinals. No George Kittle. Arizona scoring a bunch of points all season but struggling here, while shutting out the 49ers for the 1st-half.

It was only 10-7 Arizona halfway into the 4th-quarter…and then the Cards held on to win 17-10, but it was touch-and-go all 2nd-half.

My rewatch confirmed what I thought I saw live: San Francisco made a lot of mistakes…rookie/Lance mistakes and had a bunch of offensive holding penalties to start drives or ones declined by Arizona for tactical reasons. With all the sloppiness, the 49ers really went toe-to-toe with Arizona…and had a few things/inches go against them to ruin SF taking early momentum away.

The Cardinals stopped an early 4th & 1 attempt around midfield by SF, and then the next series on a 4th & goal run by Lance that looked like an easy score but the Cardinals DBs hit Lance like a Mack truck at the goal line and dropped him cold…inches away from the score…which really took the SF momentum away.

The Arizona Cardinals defense won this game more than anything. It’s such a good defense…and it rises to the occasion on 3rd and 4th-downs in key spots like an elite defense should.

Arizona is (5-0) now, best record in football/the only undefeated team left, but lucky to not be (3-2). This is a really good team, capable of beating any team in the league…but they absolutely do not look like the best team in football to me. NFC West winners. Possible Super Bowl NFC reps…possible winners of the Super Bowl even, but they are not as aesthetically (to me) good as Buffalo, Cleveland, or the L.A. Chargers. The Cardinals seem just a hair shy/not ready…but close, and maybe grows into it. Best team in the NFC? I am fine saying that…Dallas, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay will have their say in that too.

The 49ers are on a 3-game skid, now (2-3) and the season is about to get away from them. They just don’t have the talent of the Cards or the Rams in division, plus they are constantly injury riddled. If they lose to Arizona again in Week 9, and then lose to the Rams Week 10…then they probably throw in the towel on the season…but Week 8 end/going into Week 9 is the NFL trade deadline. Two losses Week 7-8 and still banged up…SF may cash out at the deadline and start prepping for 2022. Either way, I don’t believe the 49ers are winning the NFC West or going to the playoffs…and haven’t thought that going back to August.

There were three key rookie performances to discuss here (Lance, Mitchell, Rondale), and I’ll do that last…we’ll clear the other notes first, because I want to dig in on the rookies.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Kyler Murray (22-31 for 239 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) didn’t have a great FF game. His first dud of 2021. He had a rushing TD opportunity near the goal line but was cut off by a good defensive play. He had an easy, wide-open short TD toss to DeAndre Hopkins but threw it soft down by his knees and Hopkins couldn’t bring it in, leading to a field goal instead. Arizona’s 1st TD was a screen to Rondale Moore, who went 30+ yards for the score, but then upon further review…Arizona’s favorite play of 2021…out of bounds at the 1-yard line. Setting up a you-know-who TD (Conner).

It wasn’t a gem, but it was nearly normal Kyler scoring. No need to worry about his effectiveness. He did hurt his shoulder a bit, nothing horrific, and kept playing, but it brought back memories of his shoulder injury late last year that he played through and his FF numbers started to fall because of it. All we can do his hold our breath and see. He has been a limited practice this week, so that’s a sign he’s good enough to play through it. And Friday he was removed from the practice report, so all good-to-go.

 -- I will keep saying: Sell Deebo Samuel (1-13-1, 3-58-0/9) HIGH.

It’s not ‘sell Deebo at all costs’. It’s not ‘sell Deebo before he busts’. It’s just he’s running as a top 3-5 FF WR in scoring right now, but his play does not match the output – it’s been a couple lucky long TDs, pushing yards and the TDs. He got a rushing TD here to keep the party going, which is good for Deebo owners…because his receiving game was pretty bad here – 3 catches on 9 targets and three drops.

Lance throws a different kind of ball, and it’s off target a lot…and coming in hot…so there’s that but there cannot be a pitch-and-catch relationship with Lance established for Deebo at this point. And if Jimmy G. is back, then it’s a wimpy passing game again.

Deebo’s trading at peak value, and I want to use that to get something major for him before he does fall off in value. I don’t mind holding him, but I have been trying for three weeks to turn him into gold bars. I continue to do so through the bye. You can hold this week and see what needs you have after this week…and any recipients of him in a trade would be getting him to play Week 7…good for trade value. Buyers of Deebo in his bye week are more trying to bargain hunt a bit.

 -- Chase Edmonds (6-15-0, 3-19-0/4) had a shoulder injury coming in, but still played his normal snap share…just not a lot of touches in this game flow.

Edmonds is a nice PPR RB2-2.5, good catch counts/no rushing TDs…he is what he is right now. I’ll hold for depth/usage…I’ll trade in a deal trying to upgrade. I’m not locked into him one way or the other in this offense, and more reason why coming up in a few segments.

 -- As I was finishing this piece, the Cardinals traded for Zach Ertz. It’s the move a team going for the title makes…and a desperate one because of the Maxx Williams injury.

It’s an upgraded situation for Ertz, because it’s a better pass game than Philly…and no longer splitting attention with Dallas Goedert. But I don’t equivocate that Ertz is now some TE1 with a bullet moving to Arizona. The Cardinals have never featured the TE. Ertz is new to the offense. This could take 2-3 weeks to even show a spark. People think it’s the greatest deal for Arizona, thus the Ertz value pops – I’m willing to sell the steak based on the sizzle.

I’m not buying Ertz. I’ll either hold or sell.

 -- One final note before we get to the rookies…the Arizona Defense.

You know it warms my heart/drives me insane every time I listen to pregame or post-game highlights chatter or some random FF show on TV during the day in the background of my office, where the ‘smart’ analyst says…hey, this Arizona defense isn’t bad – as if they discovered (5 weeks in) it first and are hipping the ignorant masses to it now (but even the analysts don’t really believe it).

Raise your hand if you’ve had the Arizona-DST for the last 3-6 weeks? You’re welcome.

Your support of FFM allows me to put in the time to watch all these preseason games and regular season games, and college draft study games all year ‘round so that I can find these gems 3-6 weeks ahead of THEM and bring it to you for your consideration. It’s real work. It’s not the glamour job you think, but it beats a lot of occupations! And I need to produce magical football finds or there’s no reason to support the cause. We produced some magic with the Arizona Defense with good old fashioned scouting. It takes time and experience, which your support allows us to do.

I’ll never work for ESPN or any major outfit, and they do their best to suppress all of us little independents out there (as they should). It’s rigged in their favor. Your support is crucial to keep us alive and going forward. Thank you. Please accept the Arizona-DST 2021 as a token of our appreciation – your support made it happen.

It’s possible the QBs for Arizona-DST to face ahead are: Baker-Mills-Rodgers-Jimmy G.-Darnold-Geno-BYE-Fields-Stafford-Goff-Wentz-Dak (through Week 17). The problem/not optimal weeks are Week’s 8 (GB), Week 12 (BYE), Week 14 (LAR).

Just noting, the L.A. Chargers-DST has Mac Jones (Wk8), Teddy B. (Wk12), and Dan Jones (Wk14). A sweet pairing the rest of the way, with two high-end defensive units…ARI and LAC.

OK, the three rookie reports…

  -- (1) Rondale Moore (3-38-0, 5-59-0/6).

One of the best plans for a WR by an O-C/HC this season this side of the Kadarius Toney event Week 5. Moore had half the carries starting RB Chase Edmonds had in this game…and some of them as a straight up RB…not a jet sweep WR.

Moore’s carries the last three weeks: 1-2-3.

One of his catches in this game was a catch-and-run gem for a TD but ruled out a yard short.

Moore is only playing 40%+ of the snaps in games, but when he’s in they are having him in the backfield and throwing designed bubble screens. It’s game-on with Moore. We need to own him and get ready for the breakout that may have already started. He doesn’t have to start or play all the snaps to be a WR2.

He’s the best FF WR from the 2021 NFL Draft…ahead of Kadarius Toney, but Toney closing fast.

 -- (2) Elijah Mitchell (9-43-0, 2-19-0/2) returned to action.

Last we saw him, he took over the backfield Week 1 from injured Mostert, and then got hurt himself Week 2. He’s a pros pro. Just a smart, talented, non-attention seeking back…and not-super tall or super-speedy or 225+ pounds. He’s just a ‘plus’ athlete with a great feel for running the ball between the tackles. He reminds me of Damien Harris or a thicker/smarter Darrell Henderson.

Fears to address:

Does Trey Lance hurt Mitchell for FF? Yes, to some degree…because Lance will take a lot of rushing numbers. But Mitchell will still be that 15+ touch a game guy. But note the next few weeks will probably be the final acts of Jimmy G., and then you might see Mitchell with 20+ carries a game.

Do Trey Sermon or JaMycal Hasty or Jeff Wilson scare you? No. I think Shanahan found his guy. One of the other guys will be the 25% part of a 75/25 split. Lance is more the fear for taking short TDs, etc., for FF. Trey Sermon played 2 snaps in this game, if you want to know where he stands with Shanny right now.

I mention all this to say… Mitchell has been out for weeks, then this FF meh, then a bye. He’s getting outta sight, outta mind. Then the Jeff Wilson people are gonna start howling soon. They already are. It’s all reducing Mitchell’s value down to an RB2.5-3.0.

If you go straight up asking for Mitchell in a deal, you’ll raise flags. If you just toss Mitchell in as a body to a multiplayer deal…you can get him with little resistance.

One of the best low-key bargains out there this week is Elijah Mitchell…a solid RB1.75-2.0, maybe 1.5…trading as a ‘who cares’ RB2.5-3.0.

 -- (3) Finally, the Trey Lance (15-29 for 192 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT, 16-89-0) full starter debut.

I’ve been cautious on Lance. He really isn’t ready for pocket passing NFL games, fully. He’s making many rookie passer mistakes and is erratic with his passes…rarely throws to a WR on the money. All the flaws were on full display in this game.

But so-to was all the reasons to love him.

Lance in the pocket = bad.

Lance moving around to make plays = good.

Trey Lance has gone from skittish-to-run rookie in the preseason to Week 4 you started to see his elite movement skills, and then they were on full display here – Lance is like a hybrid version of Jalen Hurts and 1st-year Josh Allen right now. Sixth sense movement, way faster feet than Allen, with the cannon arm like Allen…with all the erratic-ness of 1st-year Allen.

The career floor is = Never gets better than erratic 2nd-year Josh Allen.

The career ceiling is = Better version of Josh Allen. He’s got the same arm skill, but a terrible delivery with faster feet.

Lance, in his ‘still baking’ cake-state, being thrown in against Arizona, of all defenses, was going to be a chore. But I thought he handled it better than expected. He was a running weapon. 16 carries. Josh Allen has never run the ball 16 times in a game in the NFL. Lamar Jackson hasn’t rushed it more than 16 times since 2019 (Week 17, 17 times). Right now, Lance is a running weapon who could also pass – that’s a good thing for FF production.

Jalen Hurts isn’t pretty, but he always makes plays because of his feet…even if that’s passing plays on the move. Lance could be the better Hurts in short order but isn’t the better Hurts right now.

Lance as a bust who never gets his passing together is still on the table. Not every story is now ‘But, Josh Allen did it!’ Josh Allen’s conversion from wild cannon-arm guy to NFL MVP in three seasons is the exception, to this point, not the rule in recent NFL history. But for a debut against a defense like Arizona…this was very encouraging for Lance’s future.

And there’s no way Jimmy G. is keeping that job as Lance redshirts (per Shanahan’s wishes) unless the 49ers blaze a win streak, and that’s not likely to happen. I suspect Lance will take over (after) if SF loses to Indy Week 7…or if they lose to Chicago Week 8. The only way SF has a chance of beating ARI-LAR Weeks 9-10 is with Lance.

Ross Jacobs has been calling for the Trey Lance revolution all along. This was the first real shot fired in that event to come.

Snap Counts of Interest:

56 = Hopkins

49 = AJ Green

33 = Kirk

29 = Moore

37 = Edmonds

29 = Conner

56 = Deebo

46 = Aiyuk

30 = Sanu

44 = Mitchell

02 = Sermon

R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Vikings 19, Lions 17

The Vikings were cruising along 16-6, trying to go up 19-6 with a few minutes left but their FG-attempt fell a yard short. Didn’t seem to matter…the Lions were struggling on offense all game, so a 10-point lead with 4+ minutes left should’ve been fine (in their minds). The Lions drove down the field after that and had to settle for a field goal to cut it to 16-9 Vikings with 2:30 left.

On the ensuing Vikings drive, Alexander Mattison was stripped of the ball and a turnover in Vikings territory. The Lions scrapped for the TD to make it 16-15 Minnesota, and then went for two…and got it. An amazing turn of events…17-16 Lions with 0:37 remaining. I thought it was over.

It wasn’t.

Kirk Cousins hit on three passes downfield, used his timeout wisely, got into long FG-range…and Greg Joseph nailed the 54-yarder as time expired for the win.

It wasn’t pretty, but the Vikings won and pulled to a lucky (2-3). The Vikings have had a couple unlucky losses, so they were owed this. I think the Vikings are one of the best 10 or so teams in football…a sleeping giant. Their defense is coming on hot and they have a nice offense, especially when Dalvin Cook is a full-go. Minnesota should be (4-1)…they should be the NFC North favorites today…they also should’ve just lost at home to the Lions.

Massive game for MIN against Carolina Week 6…a win gets them to (3-3) and thus having a tiebreaker chip over Carolina for the wild card race. The Vikings dug themselves a hole to start the season, but we see them scrambling to 9 wins…and possibly getting hot and challenging the Packers for the division down to the wire. Week 17, MIN at GB could be interesting.

You have to feel for the Lions…or more specifically, for Dan Campbell.

I watched his post-game press conference…where he was crying. I think most people probably saw a 10-second clip of him in tears, and you either felt sorry, proud, or thought he was a wuss. You and I made a snap judgment off what the media showed us.

I set out to watch the entire 9-minute post-game, because coaches crying is rare…especially a ‘tough guy’ like Dan Campbell. And I’m won over. For several reasons…

1) You rarely see a grown man/football coach cry. Campbell was crying over a football loss. To an outsider (non-Lions fan) it can seem he’s deranged, and maybe he is sometimes – but that Lions team has been so close all year, not given up in any games, were overmatched here (and every week), they were very ineffective on offense…but kept grinding and made the late comeback with a key strip turnover, gutty TD drive, the gutsy 2-point conversion…then to have the win ripped away by a 54-yard boot – when you’re passionate about your thing, that makes you wanna cry.

In a world where coaches fight the media and/or bullshit them nonstop (because 99% of them are pure idiots, so they deserve it), and where these coaches shine on fans, sine on the league, and shine on their own players with talk of ‘family’ (what family do you know kicks half of the people in the family out to go to another family every 2-3 years?) – typical NFL coaches are grown men playing a role of ‘leader’ like an actor in a movie/TV show…in a world filled with corporate coaches saying whatever is needed to keep getting paid – Dan Campbell wanted his team to have their hard-fought win, and it was ripped away, and he was sad for them. It was genuine. Nobody is as passionate as Campbell.

2) Campbell’s genuineness is going to pay dividends…he’s going to attract Dan Campbell type players over time and win with them someday if he can stay employed long enough. The modern athlete wants paid…but also wants to enjoy their workplace. Campbell’s style is not for everyone, not for most people, but he’s a unique business in that he’s the only business of its kind (in the NFL) potentially. Mike Zimmer is a tough guy coach too, but he’s an a-hole no one wants to really play for. Not with Campbell, he’s offering something different. He connects with people.

3) During the presser, Campbell answered all the questions as openly as he could. He cried in a spot…he came into the post-game presser teared up, so the team saw his emotion ahead of the presser. Most coaches mumble words and leave at these things, after a loss. Campbell stood with his head-up and had a normal conversation like a normal human being…not fake excuses and complaints/cliches like a Mike Tomlin or Kyle Shanahan might give.

4) At one point, halfway into the 9-minutes, with Campbell sniffling up his runny nose from the crying…while listening to the next incoming media question, he grabbed the bottom of his shirt and pulled it up to his face and wiped his tears and snot for relief.

When do you ever see that? A grown man, low-key crying, in-front of a media throng – and he just grabs his shirt and uses it as a Kleenex? Campbell isn’t an act – he’s real…a real human, who does real things, and isn’t afraid of what people think in the NFL…in life? He just wants to win football games…i.e. be successful at his job. Everyone thinks they want to be successful but then don’t ‘live it’, they just talk about it…Campbell is living his words. All that will pay off in time if they let it.

Most NFL teams are losers/not Super Bowl winners. Dan Campbell, and R.C. Fischer, have one less Super Bowl win as head coaches than Sean Payton, Mike McCarthy, and Andy Reid (among others). If you can’t be boastful/proud of your team winning games/titles, at least you can be proud of the fight and genuineness of the coach of the Lions (as a Lions fan). You never go to sleep thinking Campbell isn’t giving all that he’s got to win on your behalf. Campbell might sell his kidney to get a win…and you have to respect that at a certain level.

Beware of the Lions for the upset this week hosting a very good Cincy team. Be wary of betting against Detroit in any Survivor Pool pick, etc., any week because they are biting kneecaps now.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Notes on the QBs (and defenses) here…

The two defenses were attacking the offenses…this was a defensive battle, for sure.

Jared Goff (21-35 for 203 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) had his worst day as a Lion. Prior to this, Goff was flirting with a 100-range QB rating (if you’re into that). But he ran into two problems here:

(1) He lost his best OL, Frank Ragnow the prior week and it’s going to hurt them big time the rest of the season. Weeks 1-3, Goff was sacked 2.0 times per game. The last two games, without Ragnow…4 times sacked each game.

(2) The Vikings defense is really coming into its own. Three games in a row holding opponents to 17 or fewer points…including Russell Wilson and the Browns. This defense is boosted any time they’re at home…the loudest crowd in the NFL.

It doesn’t get any easier for Goff ahead…Cincy Week 6 is a very good defense, then Week 7 at LAR should be ‘interesting’ for revenge (or not).

Kirk Cousins (25-34 for 275 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) was white hot Weeks 1-3 but has fizzled the last two weeks. Blame a very good Browns defense Week 4. And credit a try-hard, aggressive Lions defense here. But mostly blame ‘no Dalvin’. This was a very good defensive effort by Detroit. A few weeks ago, the Lions D shutdown Lamar Jackson. They gave Aaron Rodgers some fits Week 2 before losing some defenders to injury in-game and fading off.

The Lions-DST is middle of the pack in a lot of defensive metrics…they are not pushovers by any means.

 -- Because Jared Goff doesn’t have the protection he needs in the pocket, he’s turning into a version of the Steelers offense/Big Ben – gotta get rid of the ball quickly. Thus, D’Andre Swift (11-51-1, 6-53-0/6) is going to become Austin Ekeler Midwest…a top receptions per game RB. But, also emerging is the quick toss to the slot WR Amon St. Brown (7-65-0/8)…who is becoming the Midwest Jakobi Meyers, nice catch counts…no TDs. Of the two, I like Meyers’ talent better…but St. Brown might be in a better spot for spike catch-count games with Detroit in constant deficit and playing in a dome a lot. 8 targets in each of the last two games for Amon-Ra.

The short passing game also means that medium-deep WRs like Kalif Raymond (0-0-0/2) are going to be feast or famine…unless he gets more bubble screens (but he ran more medium-deep here), then it’s going to be lower volume for Raymond…and Benson, Tyrell, etc.

T.J. Hockenson (2-22-0/3) is fading off…needing to stay in more for blocking but also gets attention in coverage as a noted top target to worry about (erroneously) by defenses. Plus, he’s just not that good…as I’ve been saying since his pre-Draft.

 -- What is happening to Adam Thielen (2-40-0/3)? His two catches in this game…both happened in the final 0:37 to setup the win.

Thielen dropped a 15-yard midgame. He also had a 20+ yard catch-and-run, near TD, called back due to an offensive shift.

Thielen was hot Weeks 1-3. Faded off Weeks 4-5 with Cousins, with the defenses being better. I like a buy low on Thielen…I like it a lot, because owners are predisposed to thinking he’s dull and aging. He’s not aging out/getting slower. He just didn’t have the impact he normally does for a game…it happens. He’s a great add on the cheap right now…like acquiring as a WR2-2.25.

 -- Is Tyler Conklin (2-25-0/3) going to go back to FF-viability? Probably not. We have had five games…five cards dealt, one ace (Week 3, 7-70-1/8) and four discards/crap. The data says…the Vikings don’t make TEs for FF. I thought Conklin could catch a ride here as a back-end TE1…but he’s just a random event week-to-week. Have fun guessing which week is the good one.

Snap Counts of Interest:

62 = Thielen

60 = Jefferson

40 = Osborn

47 = St Brown

46 = Raymond

44 = Hodge

22 = Cephus

21 = Benson

50 = Swift

22 = J Williams

R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Saints 33, Football Team 22

Wow…it was such a treat to watch the Browns-Chargers game Week 5. A thing of beauty. Art in the form of football. So, with the Yin and Yang of life…I also had the pleasure of getting to watch this football abomination.

Two of the worst QBs in football ‘slugging it out’…neither hitting above 50.0% completions. Two guys just throwing passes up for grabs -- and Winston’s landed more than Heinicke’s. That’s about the extent of this game.

Washington had so many coverage errors capped by allowing a Hail Mary TD at halftime where the guy who caught the TD was wide open in a pile…and two other receivers next to him could’ve caught it wide open too. It was the worst Hail Mary coverage in the history of football (hey, let’s all go to the end zone and form a socially distanced circle around the receivers and watch them catch a Hail Mary as if they were fair catching a punt)…that play was the Washington Football Team 2021 in a nutshell. They are falling apart. The schedule is about to send them in a major losing streak/stretch. They are (2-3) now…they’ll end up with 4 wins if they’re lucky by season’s end.

The Saints are really good, but like Carolina…their suck-QB takes a division winning roster down to a fringe wild card team. New Orleans is now (3-2), and we’re tracking them for 8-9 wins in the end…battling Carolina for a wild card most likely.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Saints weapons thoughts…

Jameis Winston (15-30 for 279 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT) has the lowest amount of pass attempts and passes completed of any starting QB who has played 5 games. His problems are all the receiving weapons problems for FF.

Marquez Callaway (4-85-2/8) was the recipient of the 49-yard Hail Mary …otherwise, 3-36-0/7 for the game on purpose…a nothing stat line, like most every game this season. Callaway is such a nice interior route worker and timing pass guy…but Jameis is bombs and bubbles, so Callaway cannot evolve for FF…but if you can get a Hail Mary every week…

Michael Thomas (DNP) could be back soon…or not. But he’d probably walk right into the role Callaway has, and as noted prior – not Winston’s best style of game. You’re not getting Michael Thomas 2019 with Brees upon a Thomas return. Thomas may lay out longer…he may be traded. He’s not bad to add this week if your redraft league forgot about him…he’s eligible to come back Week 7. He’s a trade chip on the hype of a return. Mostly, he’s rostered as people sat and waited for 2019 Thomas+Brees but are going to get rusty 2021 Thomas+Winston instead.

Deonte Harris (1-72-1/1) found broken coverage, got wide open, and saw a Jameis bomb on the money. Harris has been a weapon on throws for years…and he had 8 targets last week. He was trying to break out, because he’s an easy throw for Winston. This game…bomb TD to start the party – and then hurt his hamstring and missed the rest of the game after just two snaps. Harris is close to being an FF-weapon, but he always gets hurt to get derailed. He will be healthy Week 7 after the bye, so he’s a legit WR3/Flex Week 7, IF Thomas isn’t back.

 -- Washington weapons thoughts…

Taylor Heinicke (20-41 for 248 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) is similar to Jameis…randomly throwing passes, sometimes they find their mark and sometimes they find the other team – he had two picks in this game, lucky it wasn’t 5+.

Terry McLaurin (4-46-0/11) is his favorite receiver, but their 55% connection rate on targets this season let’s you know how dicey each throw is. They connected on 36% of their passes here. Last week, TML had two TDs, but both were minor miracles…that’s why I’ve been pushing to trade him vs. holding. The two TDs Week 4 made everyone hold or regret a trade they did prior. This week…you wished you would have traded him ahead of this contest. He will continue to have random WR1 and WR2-3 weeks…depending upon the coverage and the miracles hitting randomly from Heinicke.

Ricky Seals-Jones (5-41-0/9) looked really solid in place of Logan Thomas. But next week RSJ might have a 2-20-0/3 line…you never know with Heinicke. RSJ is a flyer hope any week right now. Also, you do not have to hold Logan Thomas to the death if you found a better TE the last few weeks – all you Schultz and Knox people, you can move on if you need the roster spot. Thomas may not be back for a few more weeks. What’s he come back to? Randomness.

Curtis Samuel (1-8-0, 0-0-0/1) got me excited for a moment – he was in the backfield lined up a few times right away…but he got dinged up again and only played 5 snaps. But the snaps he was in were encouraging…a lot of backfield work. I’m trying to hold Samuel in deeper leagues. Normal redraft…he’s not a must hold, because who knows if he’ll ever be healthy this year. It’s been one thing after another with him in 2021.

DeAndre Carter (4-62-0/8) is the PPR winner off a Samuel injury. He takes his role essentially, and he’s a pretty talented/stable, speedy WR.

A game Washington trailed most of the time, I figured J.D. McKissic (2-0-0, 1-8-0/40 would have seen a bunch of targets. Nope. He played his normal number of snaps, but to little avail. Last week, 7 carries and 5 catches. This week 2 carries and 1 target. I assume Week 5 was a blip. It’s the FF-life you lead with the McKissic-Hines-Gio, etc., crowd. I like David Johnson more and more in that pool of RB PPR despair.

You’re getting the TDs with Antonio Gibson (20-60-2, 2-12-0/2), which is nice, but the actual yardage performance isn’t great. Less than 70 yards rushing four games in a row. Their best OL (Schreff) is out for a while…then they lost Sam Cosmi in this game. You gotta pray the TDs keep falling his way.

 -- The Saints defense is pretty good, but erratic. Jameis doesn’t help them much. They’ve had a very easy schedule, so we don’t know how truly good they are…but they did crush Rodgers opening week. A week 6 bye then Geno Smith Week 7 is noice! Then the schedule turns rough Week 8 vs. TB on from there.

Snap Counts of Interest:

47 = A Gibson

34 = McKissic

05 = J Patterson

70 = McLaurin

58 = Carter

51 = Humphries

46 = Callaway

40 = Stills

25 = Ty Montgomery

08 = Hogan

02 = Deonte Harris

R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Packers 25, Bengals 22

This will be known (for a few weeks, until we forget completely) as the game with all the missed field goal attempts to win it. And it was a crazy ending…because football is the best TV drama in all the world. That and 90-Day Fiancé. I digress…

What all ‘crazy missed FG attempts’ storyline will hide is – we have entered a period of time where the Cincinnati Bengals are as good as the Green Bay Packers. Cincy played right with Green Bay…and shoulda/coulda won. This wasn’t just a blip, a fluke…this was the Bengals being as good as the Packers. Welcome to 2021. It’s not that the Packers are bad…it’s that Cincy is that good…not great…good.

The Bengals are (3-2)…they should be (4-1)/(5-0). Two close losses so far this season. They also are lucky to not be (2-3)/(1-4) as well. But (3-2) fits them right now…this is a 10-win team that has a shot to make a wild card this year. We’re projecting 8-10 range for wins now looking out over their schedule. Four games with BAL and CLE ahead, with LAC and KC on the schedule ahead as well…not easy.

The Packers are also good, but beatable…for now. When/if they get LT David Bakhtiari and Jaire Alexander (and he’s an if) back then they are better than the Bengals. If the Packers make it through the first 6 games at (5-1) and then get Bakhtiari back Week 7…the Pack are one of the true powers in the NFC, especially if Jaire can get back…which means like the 5-8th best team in the AFC. A tough schedule ahead, The Computer is projecting 10-11 wins for Green Bay right now.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- This is going to be an odd way to start this player analysis…

Davante Adams (11-206-1/16) had a MONSTER game, per usual. The Bengals top CB is Chidobe Awuzie (6 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PDs). Awuzie was on Adams quite a bit. So, process this statement: I think Awuzie played Adams as well as anyone I’ve seen in a while. Awuzie is a Pro Bowler, or should be, and possible Defensive Player of the Year candidate (but he won’t even be on the ballot, most voters don’t know he’s a real NFL player…they think he’s a made name).

He’ll get as many DPOY votes as the amount of laughs I get out of the incessant Sunday NFL game’s Kate McKinnon Verizon commercials = which is zero (which is a shame because she’s wonderful on SNL).

The reason the Bengals are ‘good’ now, the resurgence of Cincy is not just Joe Burrow…it’s the defensive makeover. Awuzie was a big get in free agency. The Bengals have allowed the 5th lowest TD passes against this season (6 TDs). They are #7 in sacks so far this season. Top 10 against the run (yds allowed). #7 best in PPG allowed. This is a very good defense and Awuzie is a big reason why.

So, how is Awuzie so great and allowed 206 yards to Davante? Two reasons…

1) There was a stretch where Awuzie left the field for a drive…and Rodgers went right to work and worked Adams the whole drive, including for their lone TD.

2) Sometimes Awuzie was not on Adams, and Rodgers went right at that. But Rodgers was mostly avoiding Adams when Awuzie was straight up on him. But sometimes Awuzie would start on Adams, but hand him off to the safety going deep and then Rodgers would work that too.

Straight up, Awuzie allowed 6 catches for 54 yards and no TDs officially…with a pick. And the big yards on a late game semi-miracle throw and Adams catch was tightly covered by Awuzie.

Fear Awuzie for your WR matchups…until he hands them off to burn their safeties. Respect Awuzie as one of the top corners in the game.

Imagine if Dallas kept Awuzie…?

 -- Onto WRs that I don’t respect…

Ja’Marr Chase (6-159-1/10) caught another long TD pass…so the gold jacket is being fitted for him among the football social media.

On Chase’s TD play, Burrow escaped a sack, scrambled around and coverage broke down. He heaved it to Chase deep, the DB came over and covered it nicely as he dove/reached out with a big fly swat to knockdown the incoming floater…but he whiffed on it, so it landed in Chase’s hands as a surprise and Chase then turned around and walked the extra 20+ yards into the end zone.

Chase is not doing anything special that I see, still…but I have to respect that luck keeps going his way. It will dry up but it’s working now. Side note: Rookie CB Eric Stokes (4 tackles, 1 PD) ate Chase for lunch in this game when he was on him. History will show Chase was a stupid draft pick at #5…not taking Sewell, but also not taking Stokes (for a lot of teams) in the top 10.

When I watch this Bengals passing game, I am impressed way more with Tee Higgins (5-32-0/7). And because Higgins missed two games with minor injury and then returned Week 5 and didn’t score a TD…his FF-stock price is dropping. I’m all-in on him at a discount. He trades like a WR2…I think he’s a WR1 all day long. Buy him for WR2-2.25 valuations …or try.

 -- Joe Burrow (26-38 for 281 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) has been pretty efficient and winning this season, but it still doesn’t look like he’s back to his old self yet. If he ever gets back in the groove fully…Cincy is a playoff team.

 -- I’m not going to comment deeply on the RBs in this game…they did what anyone would expect…

A.J. Dillon (8-30-0, 4-49-1/4) is the best backup RB in football and is now catching passes like a beast.

Samaje Perine (11-59-0, 4-24-1/5) fills in just fine as needed if Mixon is ever down.

 -- Many of you know I like Bengals rookie PK Evan McPherson (2/2 XP, 0/2 FGs) but I got a few emails post-game/week on whether it’s time to give up on McPherson .

He missed two game-winning FG attempts, yes…but note that one was from 57 yards and it was good from 70 but fully smacked the post. No shame there. His next one, he thought he made…kicked it so high it went near the top of the post so it was a judgment call, and McPherson and his holder and some teammates were celebrating the make…but the refs disagreed.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Chase

55 = Boyd

47 = Tee

56 = Uzomah

21 = Sample

41 = Perine

19 = Mixon

44 = A Jones

21 = AJ Dillon

38 = Tonyan

29 = M Lewis

Ross Jacobs

FFM

15 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Ravens 31, Colts 26

Where to start with this one? There's so much to sort out.

I've seen plenty of storylines written about this game, and I don't believe any of them truly capture what happened here, so I'm going to do my best to paint this picture as accurately as I can.

The Colts jumped out to an early 7-0 lead after Jonathan Taylor broke a simple screen pass for a 73 yard TD. On their next drive, Indy was moving the ball well and looked to take an even larger lead, but the drive was halted by a sack and fumble on Wentz.

The two teams would drive crappy drives for the next several minutes until Baltimore was finally able to get on the board with a FG during a 2-minute drive where Indy was playing a soft zone coverage. But Baltimore left too much time for the Colts and they managed to get a FG of their own to make it 10-3 Colts at the half.

Indianapolis got the ball after halftime and promptly scored to take a 16-3 lead after Michael Pittman made an amazing catch on a poorly thrown ball in coverage, broke a tackle, and got into the endzone. The Colts missed the extra point.

On the next possession, Baltimore finally put together a good drive, but were stopped at the 1 yard line when Lamar fumbled the ball. The Colts picked it up and nearly scored but a penalty was thrown for an illegal forward lateral.

The Colts again took the ball right down the field with more help from Pittman and Taylor and scored again to make it 22-3. They went for 2 and didn't get it. Things were looking very bad for the Ravens.

Baltimore got the ball back and scored on their next drive after a backup corner was beaten on a double move by Marquise Brown. The Ravens also went for 2 and didn't get it. 22-9 Colts at the start of the 4th quarter.

Indy once again went right down the field but stalled and kicked a FG for a safe 25-9 lead. This is where the trouble began.

With 12 minutes left in the game and only a 16 point lead, the Colts coaching staff apparently felt comfortable enough to start running a prevent defense to keep the Ravens in front of them. They had been moving the ball well so far and likely felt like even if the Ravens scored that they could just run the clock down afterwards.

They did manage to keep the ball in front of them, but Lamar just took checkdown after easy checkdown and marched right down the field in short order to make it 25-17 after a Mark Andrews TD and 2 point conversion.

Indy got the ball back and proceeded to run the clock down as planned. Things were looking good until they stalled and had to attempt another FG. Their kicker had been dealing with a hip injury all night and held his own, but the Ravens blocked the kick to give themselves a chance with about 6 minutes left.

Right down the field went the Ravens as Lamar was able to just pick apart the soft defense of the Colts. He nearly fumbled the ball again at the 1 yard line but was luckily ruled down. Andrews would score yet again and also convert a second 2-pt conversion to tie the game.

40 seconds to go and the Colts had one last chance to win the game. A stupid penalty by a Baltimore defender would give them a 1st down and a couple plays later they lined up for a 47 yard FG attempt to win the game. But the injured kicker missed again and the game was headed to OT.

Baltimore won the coin toss to receive and went right down the field against another soft defense, and a TD pass to Marquise Brown sealed the win.

It was a wild game and trying to sort out what happened is complex.

Most people naively look at the box score and the huge comeback and attribute all of it to Lamar Jackson's brilliance. There is a large faction of NFL analysts that believe he can do no wrong and that he's perpetually underrated as a QB and player in general.

That isn't really a correct view of these events in my opinion. Baltimore really struggled to move the ball against a decent but not great Colts defense all night...until Indy had a huge lead and started playing soft to try and run out the clock. It's a theme we've seen more and more in recent years. Sometimes getting too large of a lead early is a curse because it almost forces you into a certain style of play that is too passive and helps the opposing team come back.

All these passing yards that Lamar piled up...he doesn't remotely do that under normal circumstances. He's an ok NFL passer, not bad, definitely not great...ok. If his legs weren't so dangerous he would struggle even more, but since teams are worried about him taking off he is afforded more time to throw and wide open lanes. I'm not knocking him for that. It's part of his game and the massive benefit of having a mobile QB. But that doesn't automatically mean he's a great passer and can hang with the Herbert's and Mahomes's of the world. Of course, brain dead football society that we have these days, I'm sure the fans and voters will give him an MVP because they equate fantasy stats with real life success. Sad but true.

Now having said all that I should also point out that while Baltimore was very fortunate to win this game after they got down (two scores, two 2-pt conversions, multiple missed Indy FG's, and getting the ball first in OT), Indy was very fortunate to have gotten a huge lead. They were playing even with the Ravens but not that much better. Their first two scores were a long screen pass that Taylor broke and a wild catch and score by Pittman off of a terribly thrown ball. They got a Lamar fumble at their 1 yard line that turned into another score for a 14 point swing. This wasn't domination by the Colts so much as it was them getting fortunate.

Then the luck swung the other way. That's life and football for you.

So to sum it all up, I would say that the Ravens are a good but not great team. They have had to come back on two not great teams in the Raiders and Colts, came back on a suddenly vulnerable Chiefs team, barely survived the pathetic Lions, and smacked the struggling Broncos. They are currently 9th in the NFL in scoring (with a lot of help) but they've played several really weak defenses so far to prop them up. They are tied for 14th in defensive ppg and again have been fortunate in the schedule so far. The schedule is about to get a lot harder, and I don't think the Ravens are going to handle it very well. They look like a 9-8 team to me or somewhere in that range.

The Colts are now 1-4 and falling farther behind the Titans in the AFC South race. They are 21st in points per game and 23rd on defense, but unlike the Ravens, they have been very unfortunate in their early schedule. They've had to play the Seahawks, Rams, Titans, and Ravens, all .500 or better teams, and they've had to do it while struggling with injuries, particularly to their offensive line.

They are not a bad team. I caution anyone against thinking playing against the Colts is a free win. It is not. They are essentially the same team as last year, only now they have had some bad luck go against them in various ways. The schedule is about to get significantly easier, and I expect the Colts to start to bounce back especially if they can get their offensive line healthy again. I'm not sure they can catch the Titans, but I am quite sure that they'll at least close the gap a little.

Fantasy Notes

--I hammered Lamar Jackson (37-43 for 442 yards, 4 TD/0 INT, 14-62-0) quite hard for how overrated this performance was in real life football, but as a fantasy QB he is usually gold. Just don't get used to passing numbers like this. It was a fluke event and one not likely to repeat.

Before this game, in his last 20 appearances Lamar had only thrown over 300 yards once...the prior week against Denver. He had exactly 1 TD pass in every game this year until he got 4 here. In these past two games he's attempted a combined 80 passes (40/g). In his first 3 games of the year he averaged 29. Last year he averaged 23.5 attempts per game and only threw more than 30 passes twice.

The higher number of pass attempts is likely to stay actually because Baltimore's running game absolutely sucks with all these decrepit RB's taking carries. So Lamar is having to throw more to try and keep them in games. Unfortunately I think his efficiency is about to take a nose dive as he plays better teams and they realize that they don't have to fear the running game anymore. Once defenses start forcing Lamar to pass into tight windows he's going to struggle.

I'm afraid all of the “Lamar is an elite passer” people are in for a rude awakening in a few weeks. Bet they don't have anything to say when he starts to struggle though. They only come out feeling like they can yap when he garbage times his way to the only 400 yard game of his career.

--Mark Andrews (11-147-2/13) was due for a big game, but this was ridiculous. Again, this is mostly the product of a very strange game flow. Andrews isn't the new Darren Waller. Well, maybe he is considering Waller only has one big game this year and a bunch of duds too...

--Marquise Brown (9-125-2/10) now has 5 TD's on the year, a TD in every game but one so far (where he dropped 2-3 more), and 11 TD's in his last 11 games. This is the guy you want from this offense. He's Lamar's BFF in the red zone, the #6 WR on the year in ppr, and a couple dropped TD's away from being a top 2-3 guy. Some of his numbers here were also pushed by the high number of pass attempts and going into OT (where he scored one of his TD's), but all that is beside the point. The guy is just scoring constantly now, and there's no sense nitpicking it. I doubt he finishes this quite this high, but he should be able to maintain his WR1 pace regardless.

--If I haven't already made it clear since week 1, you don't want any part of this running game. These guys are all atrocious. Ty'Son Williams is the only guy I have any interest in, but he's been marginalized and pushed to the side. You could even tell here that he's now running very tentatively, as if the coaches have hammered him to hold onto the ball at all costs. It's robbing him of his explosiveness. I have no respect for how Harbaugh and the Ravens staff has handled the offense this year. They are about to get their just desserts and they deserve every bit of what's coming.

--Carson Wentz (25-35 for 402 yards, 2 TD/0 INT) went over 400 yards here, but it was quite fluky. He didn't do much to help push those numbers. It was a couple of ridiculous catch and runs by Taylor and an utterly ridiculous catch by Pittman that helped push him this high. He's still playing reasonably smart, safe, game manager football though, and as I talked about a couple weeks ago, he's a decent #2 to have right now as a safety blanket.

--Jonathan Taylor (15-53-1, 3-116-1/4) was the Colts fantasy star of the day after breaking a screen pass for 73 yards. As always though I want to caution people that think this can keep up. It won't, not unless something changes. He's still not getting the touches he deserves, and he doesn't have much room to work when he does get the ball. Things broke right for him here, but I worry about him going forward a bit. If the offensive line gets healthy he could finish strong against a weak schedule however. You just have to wait and pray with him for now.

--RC and I have been pushing the rise of Michael Pittman (6-89-1/7) for weeks now. He looks fantastic, a true #1 receiver for Indy. If you haven't seen his TD catch from this game, do yourself a favor and go look it up. There aren't many receivers in the league that can go over top of coverage like this, snatch the ball away from the defender with the ball well behind him, break a tackle, and score. He is probably a WR1.5 rest of the schedule with some outside hope of climbing higher.

--Outside of those two guys I don't think you want another piece of this offense. There's not a ton of volume to be had and Wentz is spreading the ball around pretty well. Parris Campbell (4-56-0/6) was back and had a decent game, but I still don't see the old explosiveness from him. He's just ok now and with TY Hilton coming back he probably goes back to being WR4 on this offense.

IDP Notes

--Rookie Jayson Oweh (3 tackles, 1 sack), who apparently is going by Odefe now, now has 3 sacks on the year, and I can confidently say this was his first impressive one. He got a great jump off the snap and blew past the tackle for a sack and fumble that stopped an important Colts drive. I still haven't seen the athleticism shining through as much, but he's starting to put the pieces together a little and impact the game at moments.

Snap Counts of Interest

66 = Marquise Brown

64 = Devin Duvernay

50 = James Proche

20 = Sammy Watkins

36 = Latavius Murray

20 = Devonta Freeman

14 = Ty'Son Williams

50 = Jack Doyle

31 = Mo Alie-Cox

36 = Jonathan Taylor

26 = Nyheim Hines

10 = Marlon Mack

R.C. Fischer

FFM

14 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Eagles 21, Panthers 18

I’m not sure how the Eagles won this game. They were getting thoroughly outplayed for three quarters. They were down 15-3 at one point…and the offense looked stuck in mud. But then they woke up a bit…aided by Sam Darnold going back to being old Sam Darnold and throwing easy picks for DBs like he was tossing beads at Mardi Gras, and then an Eagles blocked punt setting them up in the red zone with 4+ minutes left down 18-13 was the full turn…Eagles go onto score and win the game because Darnold can’t get a 2+ minute drive to get into position for a tie or snatch the win – he throws a pick right away and ended any real hope of a comeback. Darnold sucks. Better than he was -- but still sucks. Davis Mills is playing better football.

The Eagles are not a bad team, but they are like the Ravens – on purpose they kinda suck because of their lineup of weapons (by coach’s choice) and several OL injuries, but then the elite mobile QB just improvises them back into games and gives them a chance. Huge game hosting TB on TNF this week…a game they can win.  If they do, they have a real shot at playoff hopes. We see them finishing 7-8 wins at this stage, but 9 wins is on the table as NYG and WSH fade away (and they play them 4 times from Weeks 12-17, with NYJ wedged in there).

Carolina has a very good team/roster; except they have a bottom five QB…so they will fall short. We are projecting Carolina for 7-9 wins but could be 10+ wins if they traded for a real QB right now…but they won’t.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- First things first, let me tell you how dumb Miles Sanders (11-45-0, 5-6-0/5) is…

Usually, I am howling about how overrated he is…but now add to it he’s a dope, and almost cost PHI this game…AND may have kicked open the door for Kenneth Gainwell (2-16-0, 1-8-0/3)…

So, the Eagles took the lead with 2:38 left…kicked off to CAR, and then quickly picked off Darnold, setting themselves up with the ball at the CAR 43 with 1:56 left. Just one first down and they can then run out the clock…the Panthers had all their timeouts left, so Philly was going three straight run plays (likely) to strip CAR of all their timeouts.

1st & 10 = Pitch sweep to Sanders, who goes off tackle…but it’s congested so he kicks it outside and keeps going to the sideline. Greg Olsen (on commentary) is saying GET DOWN but Sanders doesn’t even try he just jumps a defender and goes ignorant-of-the-time/situation out of bounds. Olsen almost loses it. The clock stops, Carolina preserves a timeout…still with three.

2nd & 4 = Handoff off tackle to Sanders, and he breaks through for a 1st-down but starts aiming towards the sidelines but is tackled before we see what he would have done if faced with going out of bounds again.  

Sanders got the first down, the prior play with Sanders going out of bounds is forgotten/forgiven. Carolina is forced to use their first timeout…so this is all under control for Philly now. Run two plays safe, make CAR use their last two timeouts and then run a 3rd play and get a field goal, likely leaving CAR with about :20 seconds to go the length of the field for a TD with no timeouts after the ensuing kickoff.

1st & 10 from the CAR 18 = Sanders pitch to the right, he tries to avoid a tackler and goes out of bounds again. Greg Olsen went apoplectic, eventually saying ‘they gotta take him out, right?’ And they did…Sanders was pulled off the field. The RB coach was talking to Sanders for the next minute+ on the sidelines. The other announcer says…the Sanders basically gave Carolina five timeouts to try and stay in the game. Gainwell closed out the game…being sure to run/stay/fall down in bounds.

If there wasn’t enough frustration with Sanders going into this game, he just added more heat to the fire.

I don’t know if Philly will make the move to Gainwell, but it would likely begin with Sanders ceremonially starting and then Gainwell playing more snaps than him after that… but if we see Gainwell starting on TNF, then the move has been made. Bad first start facing the Bucs, however.

I would like to daydream that Gainwell leaps Sanders on the depth chart, but Sanders played 50+ snaps here and Gainwell 16…and if not for the stupidity at the end the gap would have been wider. So, if Gainwell is coming on for this coaching staff…you coulda fooled me on that the first 58+ minutes of the game.

The bizarre Sanders end of this game is a reason for some hope Gainwell is going to move into more of a 50-50 split with Sanders with the potential of taking over…whatever that means, for FF the lead PHI RB hasn’t been great…but maybe KG changes that? I know there is a lot of smoke the past few weeks and months of anti-Sanders, pro-Gainwell coming from the staff (supposedly) and local media.

 -- Carolina’s RB situation isn’t changing…Christian McCaffrey (DNP) will be the guy all the time, when healthy. I believe he plays Week 6. And I will tell you why in the next few paragraphs…

Chuba Hubbard (24-101-0, 5-33-0/6) was just the runner in Week 4, but here in Week 5 he was the runner/pass catcher as well. What changed? I don’t know. Rodney Smith went for 5 catches last week…but this week/game, no Smith touches and then Smith was cut by the team Tuesday. You likely do that if CMC is going to return.

Hubbard has shaky hands, so Smith had the catches last week…but Royce Freeman (3-2-0, 1-6-0/2) was in on 3rd-down quickly here as ‘that guy’ but he is so slow now that they just kept feeding Chuba in all phases and it worked OK enough.

CMC is very likely back Week 6…and Chuba is his for-sure handcuff.

 -- All the odes written about Sam Darnold (24-37 for 177 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs) after 3 games…they’re all drying up. He was THEIR (the media) MVP candidate after three weeks, now we see articles about what a mistake it was to trade for Darnold. The media lives in a world one week at a time only…whatever just happened is everything for forever, with THEIR guys.

Darnold is getting to a tougher schedule, and teams now see what he’s doing with his new team (it’s a new playbook, etc.)…so, this whole situation is going downhill to more losses as he drags Moore-Anderson with him. CMC back will help some. Darnold is playing better than the past versions of himself, but all the other QBs are so much better or are improving so much faster that it leaves Darnold as arguably the worst 1-2-3 starting QB in the league any given week.

Jalen Hurts (22-37 for 198 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 9-30-2) is 10x the QB Darnold is, but Hurts still gets the obligatory `Is Hurts the long term answer at QB for Philly’ national article every week. Dak used to get that too, years ago, as they discussed how Wentz was better in division for the future. That ‘take’ aged well…

 -- Watching the Hurts-DeVonta Smith (7-77-0/9) connection in this game…yaawwwnnn. I always expect to see some excitement, some sweet Justin Jefferson like work from DeVonta, but all I’m getting is vanilla Jakobi Meyers type work…he’s open occasionally, Hurts throws it to him (because…would you throw to Reagor if you had a choice?), DeVonta makes a solid catch and is quickly tackled.

I don’t see any ‘wow’ factor from DeVonta at all.

The ‘wow’ factor WR for Philly is Quez Watkins (3-48-0/3) but they use Quez as more deep ball decoy than purposed weapon.

 -- Speaking of dull…Zach Ertz (1-7-0/6). One catch on 6 targets. Ertz is aging fast. My only interest, and not even that interesting perhaps, is Ertz playing without Dallas Goedert (2-28-0/3) on TNF this week. If Goedert can go…then far less interested in an Ertz spot start.

 -- MVP of this game for Carolina…Jeremy Chinn (4 tackles). His IDP numbers are way down as he plays coverage more, not quasi-linebacker as much, but he was everywhere pressuring plays and sniffing out near-turnovers. He’s an excellent player who has been ‘meh’ for IDP results this year after blowing them up last year.

 -- When the Eagles-DST plays bottom half of the league teams, they are not bad. Held ATL to 6pts, SF to 17 and Carolina to 18pts. KC and DAL popped 40+ on them.

This week with Tampa Bay/Brady…probably closer to 30+ allowed.

Snap Counts of Interest:

46 = Chuba

14 = Freeman

11 = R Smith

45 = Ian Thomas

27 = Tremble

50 = Sanders

16 = Gainwell

45 = Goedert

40 = Ertz

R.C. Fischer

FFM

14 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Chargers 47, Browns 42

As a football scout, as a professional…watching this game a 2nd-time, on tape, at my own pace, rewinding and rewatching certain plays – this was a true piece of art. The best football game that I’ve seen in a long time.

I don’t mean ‘best’ as in ‘most entertaining’ like witnessing a crazy hail mary finish or weird fumble when you thought the clock was all but running out or there was some 20+ point comeback in the 4th-quarter. I mean, this was true art – two great football teams playing great football at each other, both sides of the ball playing at a high level, but the offensive play calling and execution was so brilliant, the QBs so smart, the players so one-upping making big plays…the defenses couldn’t contain them. In a 47-42 game, really good defense was actually displayed here – just the offenses were *insert Chef’s Kiss here*.

I walked away from this game, for the first time, really thinking the Cleveland Browns were legit. I thought they were more likely the also-rans of the great AFC teams…BUF and LAC, and maybe KC…especially after CLE lost it to KC Week 1. Now, I ‘believe’. This was as great a performance from a football team you could have asked for…and that’s with the Browns playing with a weak WR group and losing Denzel Ward 9 plays into the game (which was probably the difference in the game).

The Browns are legit.

The Bills and the Chargers are legit.

The Chiefs and the power teams in the NFC are cute stories not deserving mention in the BUF-LAC-CLE war ongoing.

The Chargers are this good -- beating KC and CLE in successive weeks…and they are missing their ace linebacker (Murray) and top OL LT (Brian Bulaga).

Unreal game, I don’t want to step on it by any nitpicking discussion of ‘plays’. Just take a few hours away from reality and watch this game as a fan of great football/teams.

The Browns are going to win the AFC North and the Chargers will win the AFC West, end of story (barring QB injury). Getting the home field for LAC or CLE or BUF is HUGE. LAC is hindered if they have to travel to CLE or BUF (or KC) in January. The reverse is not as true. LAC gets to the Super Bowl ONLY (likely) if they have the #1 seed/home field every game.

If LAC beat PIT Week 11, whereas BUF lost to PIT Week 1…that might be the edge for the title for LAC, right there.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- As I mentioned earlier, this was a stellar performance by both teams. So, let’s first discuss the giant dud in this game…Odell Beckham Jr. (2-20-0/3).

The Browns are SO MUCH better when OBJ isn’t there or when he’s deemphasized…like this game. In every big spot in the 2nd-half, Baker wasn’t even looking at him. So, as the game went, OBJ started running half-hearted routes and slow-walking back to the huddles, etc.

That guy, OBJ, is a piece of crap…and should be gone from the league because he’s a waste of snaps and a locker room cancer. He’s also a cautionary tale for Kadarius Toney. If I were the Giants, I would trade for or sign the most respected WR on the market and add him this year or this offseason…and pay that guy to be Toney’s personal shadow/coach/motivator/’sponsor’.

If I were the owner of the Giants, I would pay Larry Fitzgerald $500K per month for the next 15 months to be Toney’s personal WR coach (and coach of the other WRs too, but specifically for Toney). And let Fitz do color commentary for the Giants games too so he can start getting ready for his future.

What was I saying? Oh, yeah…OBJ blows. And I think the Browns will cut him if they can’t trade him in the next few weeks. Welcome to Dallas, OBJ…I can see it now.

Early on in this game, the Browns drove down the field and had a 4th & 2 in the red zone, and Baker hit OBJ with an easy over the middle pass for the conversion and then some…but OBJ looked up to see what was going on and treated the incoming pass like someone hurled a wet bar of soap shaped in the form of a football at him. Think I’m kidding? https://youtu.be/Meg9auAjMRk

 -- You know who looked terrific here…I can’t believe I’m saying this…David Njoku (7-149-1/7).

The Browns ran several smart plays using their weak WRs and strong RBs to their advantage. Defenses have to chase the WRs, no matter who they are. They also have to overplay the run game. Njoku would just slip out in to the WIDE open and be available and then speeded off after the catch a few times, including one 71 yards, which was more Njoku running than air yards.

All I know is, in my mind (mistaken memory), all I remember is the Browns playing 2-3 TEs a lot…and if anyone did anything for FF it was Austin Hooper (0-0-0/0). But in the last two games, Hooper has 1 catch on 5 targets, while Njoku has 9 catches on 9 targets (most of that in this game).

The trends say this is just a blip, but my brain is saying…with this weak group of pass game options, Njoku might be ready to take a step up as a bye week fill-in, etc., or maybe better than that. He’s mostly available over all FF waivers, but if he has another pop game next week…then everyone comes shopping.

YTD Snap counts:

237 = Hooper (67.5%)

219 = Njoku (62.4%)

143 =Bryant (40.7%)

YTD FF Half-PPR PPG:

9.8 = Njoku (most of it Week 5)

4.6 = Hooper

2.0 = Bryant

Two games with 75+ yards this season, and three games under 20 yards.

All Njoku’s targets in 2021 so far: https://youtu.be/fTJXHuyeWL0

 -- You know I love, and you love Mike Williams (8-165-2/16)…and many FFMers own him in Dynasty and/or redraft…so, we LOVED this game. Just note it was made possible by Denzel Ward going down 9 snaps in and then Williams (and Herbert roasting the backup corner, A.J. Green). There was some good fortune here along with Williams ballin’.

 -- Austin Ekeler (17-66-2, 3-53-1/5) is straight fire right now, and I thought the Browns would clamp him down to a marginal game here…so, I’m an idiot (not that I would ever bench him, just thought he’d have a lid on him). Ruminate on how dumb you think I am later; I want to ask…did you notice who the #2 RB was in this game?

53 snaps = Ekeler

26 snaps = Joshua Kelley (2-17-0, 0-0-0/0)…memba him?

00 snaps = Roundtree (only played special teams)

Kelley got the push over Roundtree this week, with Justin Jackson hurt (as always). And Kelley looked good here…legit. He was playing in several key spots.

I bring this up because…you know how everyone goes crazy off waivers for the #2 RB when the #1 RB goes down on Sunday/Monday, are you familiar with this…have you heard about this thing? Yeah, it’s true, I’m not joking…people love #2 RBs when the #1 RB goes down. ESPECIALLY if it’s on a top offense with a great O-Line.

What happens if Austin Ekeler gets hurt for 2-4 weeks?

I’m just sayin…

My vote/the guy I’m watching is a still talented Kelley – and he looked darn good running the ball here.

  -- Justin Herbert (26-43 for 398 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) was wonderful here, but I need to point out that Baker Mayfield (23-32 for 305 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) subtly went toe-to-toe with Herbert, with far inferior weapons.

This may have been the best game of Baker’s NFL career…the turning point where he should be looked at as a top 10 QB, regardless of weaker FF numbers. Looked at as a guy who can win a Super Bowl. He’s not all the way there yet, but he’s getting there. Having to keep up with Hebert against a really top-notch pass defense is not easy…and Baker was out there slinging. Still QB2 for FF…but he’s got top talent. If he ever gets rid of OBJ and gets better WRs to work with, who knows if he’ll start popping for FF.

 -- Baker can’t pop for FF because the Browns are such a run-heavy team, with good reason. Nick Chubb (25-161-1, 1-9-0/1) is the best runner of the ball in the NFL outside of Henry and maybe Cook. And Kareem Hunt (12-61-2, 5-28-0/6) is the heart and soul of this offense.

You beat the Chargers by running it at them…CLE had 35 carries for 230 rush yards and 3 TDs, 6.6 ypc here.

Good news for your FF RB facing this LAC defense…so, next week it’s Baltimore. Well, I take that back then…that’s a win for the Chargers run defense.

 -- I don’t look at either DST here as a bust just because they both went off on each other.

The Browns have some serious firepower on their D-Line…turning formerly washed up things into something like Malik McDowell (1 tackle, 1.0 sack) and Takk McKinley (1 tackle). Even Jadeveon Clowney (DNP) has played better here. No Clowney, no Ward…not at full strength for this one.

I’d argue you could use the CLE-DST the rest of the season, every week…except Week 13 bye and Week 16 at GB isn’t a treat. Week 6 v. ARI is them with Kyler iffy and their starting center down.

The Chargers-DST had several occasions where their backs were against the wall and they stopped CLE or held their drive to a field goal. They’ve given up stuff to KC and CLE this season…not a crime. Held down WSH-DAL-LV. When Kenneth Murray returns, then they’re even better.

This LAC-CLE game in a 3+ minute viewing: https://youtu.be/AiyJI5Kmcro

Snap Counts of Interest:

50 = J Cook

40 = Parham

53 = Ekeler

26 = Kelley

52 = Hooper

46 = Njoku

31 = H Bryant

58 = OBJ

49 = DPJ

34 = Higgins

03 = Felton