- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Bucs 45, Raiders 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I’m not sure how this became a blowout. The Raiders had just scored a TD to cut the lead to 24-20 TB with 12+ minutes in the game…and then a quick turnover led to a quick TB score and nine game minutes later the Bucs added 3 TDs and it was nearly a half-a-hundred hung on the Raiders.
The Bucs went full scale Air Raid offense in this game. Tom Brady threw 45 times for 369 yards and only missed on 12 of his passes and most of those missed passes were downfield pushing down the accelerator on the offense. Brady looked like the Brady of 5-10 years ago. Soon…he’s going to get Antonio Brown on top of all of this.
The real loser in this game – Bill Belichick. Tom Brady is going to win his division, be a top passer in the league, and potentially go to a Super Bowl at age 43 basically taking a loser franchise on his back and creating a monster, while Bill Belichick suffers his worst home loss in forever and his new QB cannot complete a forward pass. In the eternal battle of – is it the coach or the QB? The answer is – it’s the QB. Pete Carroll and Bruce Arians, among others, should be tithing to their QBs. Further proof…Mike McCarthy’s resume this very day.
Tampa Bay has one of the highest functioning offenses in the NFL and is about to add one of the greatest WRs of our generation in two weeks. They have two legit NFL starting RBs. They have the best TE of our generation. They have the most menacing defense in the NFL. Arguably…this is the best team, top-to-bottom in the NFL. Week 12 hosting Kansas City is likely a Super Bowl preview. The Bucs are headed to 12-13 wins and a possible NFC #1 seed, which will be important to NOT head to Green Bay or Seattle in January.
Las Vegas just happened to be in the way of this Mack truck. It shouldn’t be held against them. They were toe-to-toe for 45+ minutes here. The Raiders will win 9-10 games and be a tough out in the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- A week ago, people were dropping Leonard Fournette (11-50-0, 6-47-0/7). Now, he’s starting in fantasy lineups. After being a ghost for three weeks, all is forgiven…apparently.
My thoughts on Fournette vs. Ronald Jones (13-34-1, 1-2-0/2)…
1) Ronald Jones started, played the first couple series here. Fournette filtered in as the new 3rd-down back early on, a role which I had been predicting was coming for weeks. Jones wasn’t punished or overtaken, per se…just the Bucs were just Air Raiding on Las Vegas and Fournette fits that plan better.
But they may not stop Air Raiding now…
2) Fournette is 10x the receiver RoJo is, so if Brady is calling the shots…Fournette will be in every passing opportunity.
3) We’ve been head-faked before on TB things…on Scottie Miller, on Fournette taking over for RoJo from that time he had that one good 2nd-half earlier this season. Don’t be too cavalier that this one game means Jones is dead and Fournette is all the rage. You’ve been burned by that before…or have you forgotten already in a ‘only last week matters’ FF culture?
4) I’d project this to be a 50-50 split on playing time, some hot hand, Jones more when running is the right matchup, and Fournette in on all passing situations – meaning they are both RB2s with TD hopes and Fournette better for PPR most games.
You want to hold both these guys if possible…if one goes down the other is a STRONG RB1, but like CEH-Le’Veon – I don’t know how you split an RB2 and get an RB1 and RB2 out of it…or even two RB2s. I think we’re about to get an FF-nightmare of ‘guessing’ the right weeks for the right RB and then we’re always a week late on it.
-- Nelson Agholor (5-107-1/9) looks fantastic. I’ve been pointing him out for many weeks, but it’s not just ‘he’s getting the most targets’ – it’s that he’s become reborn as an outside receiver, miscast as a slot WR in Philly.
First series of this game, against a hot TB defense, he came out of the gates with a 28-yard play and a few plays later caught a 20-yard TD…he was hot from the jump.
As I’ve been saying for several weeks – he is the Raiders #1 WR. Agholor has come out of nowhere…it kills Bryan Edwards enthusiasm for the rest of 2020, and possibly into 2021.
The Raiders had an opening for a #1 WR. Edwards won it in training camp, he’s still a very good prospect and you’ll see it that soon enough – but the Raiders don’t have room to support three names in the passing game. It’s Waller-Agholor now. Ruggs-Renfrow-Edwards fighting for scraps.
-- Tom Brady (33-45 for 369 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) is a no brainer QB1 ahead. When they get Antonio Brown, he’ll have an all-star team to throw to. When A.B. joins, here’s what I think the pecking order will be in Brady’s heart/eyes/targets:
1) Antonio Brown – No question. The only question is…how long before it’s fully up to speed? It may hit right away. It may not really start popping until Weeks 10-11.
2) Gronk (5-62-1/8) – 5.0 rec. (8.0 targets), 70.0 yards, 1.0 TDs per game. Gronk looks better here than he did his last 2-3 years with Belichick. Another sign that Belichick didn’t have the vision for general offense like Brady…and that Josh McDaniels is not a real head coaching candidate. McDaniels held them back. Yet, some owner will shove him $50M to be a head coach next year.
How many times does the QB have to prove they are the ‘the reason’, not the O-C?
It will be the A.B. and Gronk show…and then everyone else fights for big scraps that will be out there.
3) Chris Godwin (9-88-9) – When defenses shift to AB-Gronk, Godwin is going to work with the lesser coverage. If Brady is going Air Raid, he can support AB-Gronk and Godwin.
After the top 3…everything else is as-needed any moment, but not ‘a plan’.
4) Scottie Miller (6-109-1/9) is going to be lost in coverage a lot and Brady seems to have a nice connection with him.
5) Mike Evans (2-37-0/2) – How Evans could fall from grace so fast in this is mind boggling if you think about it. But he’s been a nobody all year with Brady.
2.7 rec. (4.3 targets), 29.3 yards, 0.33 TDs per game = Evans’s last 3 games
1.7 rec. (3.0 targets), 24.0 yards, 0.67 TDs per game = Tyler Johnson’s last 3 games, playing part time two of the games.
6) Tyler Johnson (2-4-1/2) – Nice #6 WR to have! He could matter this one week only (Week 8) with Godwin out.
-- Josh Jacobs (10-17-0, 3-14-0/4) had a nothing FF game, but you knew it was coming vs. TB’s run defense.
Jacobs has yet to run for a 100+ yard game this season.
Jacobs is the #26 RB in fantasy since Week 2…just behind David Montgomery and Darrell Henderson…and just ahead of Jeff Wilson.
The more I look at this, the more I say you should trade him in redraft. I was asked about trading him in our Video Q&A Tuesday Night show and I kinda balked…I was wrong. Trade him as a RB1 value, his name carries weight.
Don’t trade because he’s been a weak performer, but that’s true. No, trade because he’s been a weak performer AND the schedule is about to kill him off more, every other week.
His schedule ahead by least rush yards per game allowed…
Week 8 = #5 CLE
Week 9 = #15 LAC
Week 10 = #9 DEN
Week 11 = #30 KC
Week 12 = #6 ATL
Week 13 = #20 NYJ
Week 14 = #3 IND
Four of his next seven games with top 10 run defenses is going to add to his general issue.
-- Daniel Carlson (2/2 FG, 2/2 XP) is the #6 PPG PK on the season to date…just one extra FG away from being #2. I’m a big fan. But just note – he kicks outside Week 8 at a windy, potentially rainy Cleveland this week. Be careful streaming him this week if your FF life is on the line this week.
-- The Tampa Bay DST is starting to become the best defensive unit in all of football, and you can probably just run them out there every week with some confidence, but…
Weeks 9-13 could be disappointing…
Week 9 = v. NO is not great.
Week 10 = at CAR should be good
Week 11 = v LAR is probably OK
Week 12 = v. KC is trouble, potentially.
Week 13 = BYE
Weeks 9-13 might have 1-2 confident plays in 5 weeks in a key time in FF.
Snap Counts of Interest:
51 = Agholor
49 = Ruggs
35 = Renfrow
32 = Jacobs
19 = Richard
15 = Booker
62 = Evans
59 = Godwin
43 = Miller
29 = Tyler Johnson
40 = Fournette
31 = RoJo
55 = Gronk
12 = Brate
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Rams 24, Bears 10 I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar. This was a pretty straight forward game. The Rams played a fundamentally sound, smart football game against a tough defense and took a 10-3 halftime lead…and then made it 17-3…and then made it 24-3 by the end of the 3rd-quarter and they tried to let the Bears back into the games at various times but the Bears have one of the five worst offenses in football and arguably the worst run game – so when they’re down, they’re done. Matt Nagy is still, somehow, known as an offensive genius. The Rams have a good defense, for sure, but the Bears made them look like the 85 Bears at certain points. Credit the Rams for a smart win. I thought they’d get beat here or close to it. The Rams play smart football, get the most out of what they got, and the Bears are just not as good as everyone thought…all a combination for a dull, easy win for the Rams. The Rams head to Miami Week 8, always a tough road game to Miami…but they get to face Tua in his debut, so you have to like the better coached team in L.A. to throw fits at Tua – but new QBs, new O-Cs, often confuse defenses who don’t know ‘tendencies’ in their debuts, so it’s not an auto-win for the Rams. The Rams are headed to 10 +/- wins and the playoffs. Whether it’s as the NFC West winner or as a wild card. The Bears fall to (5-2) and have some schedule turbulence ahead. They are set up to lose at least three of their next 4 games. If so, they would be (6-5) heading to the schedule going easy again starting Week 13. Chicago getting 9-10 wins is on the table…a wild card is in sight, and then a quick playoff exit. But they do have Nick Foles…so, anything is possible. Fantasy Player Notes… -- The good news at Rams RB… Darrell Henderson (15-64-0, 2-13-0/2) is the clear starter. The bad news at Rams RB, for me, Darrell Henderson is splitting 65/35 time with Malcolm Brown (10-57-1, 0-0-0/1), and Brown got the lone RB TD this week. The good news is, Cam Akers (0-0-0/0) has drifted off to M.I.A. He’s been no threat to make this a trio RBBC. Henderson has played the majority of snaps, taken the majority of carries, and been the guy in the game for most of the important parts. Henderson is a solid RB2 week-to-week, with the hopes he gets a TD to get to RB1…I just described most RBs starting for FF teams this week. At least we have a floor set in of performance expectations and some hope for an upside against lesser run defenses. The problem is, DH faces (arguably) the three of the 5 toughest run defenses in the NFL Weeks 10-12…SEA-TB-SF. Factor in a Week 9 BYE, and you can’t have any confidence in split-role-starter Darrell Henderson in four of the next 5 weeks. In redraft, it’s wise to consider moving him this week in a deal, preemptively. If you’re counting on him and are playing for your FF life the next 4-5 weeks. There’s always a chance he gets a goal line score to make it work, but the data says, ‘trouble ahead’. In Dynasty, he’s a hold…the talent in the Rams backfield. If you don’t have him, you can acquire him cheaper in about 3-4 weeks if he puts up a bunch of 12-40-0 games in the tough stretch. -- I have to laugh, to keep from crying, watching this game… David Montgomery (14-48-0, 5-21-0/5) is the all-in back for the Bears organization and consistently fails/disappoints every week. While across the field this day, Darrell Henderson has to split with Malcom Brown. Imagine if Henderson got the David Montgomery treatment by his coaches…and the media? The NFL is unfair. Fantasy is unfair. Life is unfair. We grind on. 2020 Fantasy is a battle of wills – what FF owners are going to crack under the pressure of bad matchups, bad injuries, etc., and start to flail away with wild waivers and lineup choices versus what ones are going to keep their heads and play the board as smart as they can and try to grind their way into the FF playoffs? FF is a beast you cannot tame on demand in 2020. You just have to keep from being eaten by the beast for as long as you can locked in a cage with it. If you think you make poor lineup choices…look at Matt Nagy and his RB plans every week. You’d think they would’ve traded for an RB by now, but nope… -- My gut feeling player of the week, Darnell Mooney (3-40-0/7) didn’t hit. He had a couple deep ball shots but he’s not ready to shine yet. He will hit one of those deep balls soon…they keep trying it more each week and it’s close but no cigar. I wonder if Nagy ever thought a bubble screen or that WR jet sweep every other team runs for an automatic 5+ yards would be smart to try with their 4.2s running WR? Not yet, it hasn’t but there’s always next week…maybe…probably not. -- The Rams WRs weren’t too far off Mooney in FF performance… Cooper Kupp (6-43-0/6) has averaged 4.7 catches (7.5 targets), 47.3 yards, 0.0 TDs the past 3 games. Robert Woods (3-22-0/5) has averaged 3.7 catches (7.7 targets), 40.7 yards, 0.67 TDs receiving the past 3 games. What gives? What has happened to the Rams’ receivers the past 3 games? 1) They played pretty stout, tough pass defenses. 2) It looks like Sean McVay has gone all RB-split roles, and WR-split, and TE-split. They are not leaning on one player at any skill position. They attack the matchups, rotate to keep fresh, spread things around – it’s the way I would do things as an NFL coach. Don’t lean on one predictable thing one play to the next, but if I’m down I go with my best horses getting them the ball. But the Rams are getting up/ahead and just smartly spreading things around. Smart for the NFL, terrible/maddening for FF. It’s going to be hard to predict the Rams offensive weapons every week ahead it appears. You’re hoping you find the TD guy to make it worthy for FF. Malcolm Brown, Gerald Everett, Josh Reynolds were the TD guys here…probably not in your lineup…or on anyone’s roster. -- Great showing by the Rams-DST, but we have to note the Bears are a favorable FF matchup. The Rams-DST has been nice against Dan Jones, Foles, Haskins/Allen. Popped by J. Allen and Jimmy G. Tua this week is favorable, you’d think. Then a Week 9 bye. Weeks 10-13…Wilson, Brady, Jimmy G., Kyler. After Week 8, you need a replacement DST for them. -- The Bears-DST is another unit that is talented but has benefitted from strength of opponent as well…and that schedule is about to shift on them too. Weeks 8-13…Brees-at Tannehill-Cousins (good for turnovers)-BYE-at Rodgers…the next 5 weeks, one confident use? Maybe they are too much for Brees or Tannehill, but I don’t think so. Goff was not bothered by them here. Matt Ryan, Teddy B., Stafford all did OK. You like/respect the Bears-DST, but you got two good spots through Week 14 (Weeks 10/MIN and 13/DET). Snap Counts of Interest: 55 = Everett 46 = Mundt 40 = D Henderson 29 = M Brown 51 = Mooney 50 = A Rob 37 = A Miller 52 = D Montgomery 13 = C Patt
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Bills 18, Jets 10
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Six field goals for 18 points…that’s Buffalo’s day in a nutshell here. But did you know PK Tyler Bass was 6 of 8 on FG attempts? The Bills were in scoring position 8 times in this game and couldn’t score…but actually they did they just didn’t count. It’s important to know that because the narrative of this game is – the Bills are frauds and Josh Allen/the offense is crashing to earth. It’s not true. We’ll get into that.
The Jets played a hard-nosed game, but they’re undermanned and lost. You see this as ‘Geez, this was too close. I had Buffalo in my survivor pool, and they gave me a scare all game. They couldn’t score on the Jets? The Bills suck.’
Actually, this was a quality win for Buffalo…because they weren’t playing well early on – they were down 10-0 mid-2nd-quarter. They were down 10-6 at the half. They were down 10-9 late into the 3rd-quarter. But after halftime this defense went into lockdown mode. Sam Darnold was like 1 for 11 at one point in the 2nd-half. They stumbled around but gutted up and grabbed this win that weaker-willed Buffalo teams of the past would have lost.
Buffalo is now (5-2) and they are going to go beat the ever-loving ass out of New England and put the Patriots out of their Cam-misery. Bet Buffalo, lay the -3.5 this week…and then they’ll have a let down vs. Seattle the following week. The Bills have been waiting for this Patriots moment since last year. I don’t think Cam knows what he’s gotten himself into this Week 8.
The Bills schedule after the New England game is not kind. There’s trouble for wins and losses. We still see 9-10 wins and a division title, but we go back to square one if they get beat by Belichick this week…an even race to the finish.
The Jets played as good a game as they could’ve. This Week 7 Jets team/effort could win a game or two before it’s over, but this Week 7 Jets team is not anything to rely on/bank on. Week 9 v. NE might be their shock first win of the season. Most likely, they’re going (0-16).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Josh Allen (30-43 for 307 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT, 11-61-0) had no TD passes against the Jets, GASP (sound of pearls clutching)!!! He must secretly suck like we knew all along. He’s back to his old ways!! I should’ve never traded for him weeks ago. I must punish him for his crimes against FF-humanity!!!
You think it’s bad about Josh Allen in the FF-world? My leading email ask player of the week right now is – how to dump Ezekiel Elliott ASAP. Zeke has been on top of the FF world for years and even produces in games where he fumbles nine times, but he had a bad FF game last week so now he must be punished, he must extradited from your fantasy team before the unthinkable happens…he underproduces expectations two weeks in a row!!!
By and large, people in fantasy…they buy high and sell low. We/FFM just don’t knock on enough doors to expose it most times…and then after a failed attempt or two we say the league ‘doesn’t trade’ and stop trying. We should lead the league in rejected trade offers – not trade concepts floated via email, real offers. People are selling Josh Allen (and Zeke Elliott) whether they admit it or not publicly.
Josh Allen completed 69.8% of his above-average 43 pass attempts in this game. He didn’t throw a pick (but he tried too once or twice). He threw for 300+ yards. He rushed for a season 61 yards. He’s not regressing. The Jets are not the worst pass defense in the NFL, not even top 10 worst by QB rating allowed against them. Everything is fine.
BUT HE DIDN’T EVEN THROW FOR A TOUCHDOWN, therefore he sucks.
Allen got the Bills into scoring position 8 times this game…for six of 8 field goals.
Allen threw a 20+ yard TD pass to Gabriel Davis that got called back for a non-impactful penalty. He then threw another 20+ yard TD pass the very next play to Cole Beasley, but Beasley had stepped/got knocked out of bounds and was ruled to have come back in to make the catch. Later in the game, Allen hit Tyler Kroft on the money for an easy 50+ yards score…but as Kroft was racing down the sidelines to free paydirt, he pulled a Daniel Jones and face planted, untouched, halfway into his score. Another ‘no TD’ event that wasn’t Allen’s fault.
If Kroft had stayed on his feet and if the penalty hadn’t been called on the G. Davis TD, Allen would have had 350+ yards passing, 2 TDs, one of them 50+ yards, and he had 61 yards rushing (and 1-2-3 shots at a rushing TD) in this game. What more do you want for FF?
Coming into the game, Allen was 2nd in the league in passing TDs.
What else does he have to do?
I know people…THEY (non-FFMers) listen to analysts, and the analysts are turning on Allen because he’s not winning games and they have been conditioned to not like him as a QB prior. Therefore, THEY are turning on Allen. He’s a fringe QB1 at-best for them…a hot potato they need to get rid before the unthinkable happens…they didn’t sell him off at the peak of his powers back when everyone loved him. The shame and humiliation of Allen being great before and now terrible, it’s too much to bear so they will trade him away no matter what they tell you on how much they love him – they will make the trade if you give them the opportunity.
If you don’t want to believe in Allen it’s OK, but if you think Allen is fading – you’re wrong.
-- I was excited to re-watch this to see the debut of Denzel Mims (4-42-0/7), and…well…not that exciting. But neither was Justin Jefferson’s first 2-3 games. Rookie WRs need a few weeks to get comfortable, especially ones who barely played in training camp due to injury.
We need more time to evaluate Mims, but my first glance – nothing exciting. I didn’t see a reason to write lots of words about the debut. Sam Darnold is a noodle arm and threw some passes clean to Mims and he caught them and got tackled quickly.
Mims did get an end zone shot to enact his specialty of high pointing passes, but Darnold not knowing what I know, somehow, threw a flat pass instead of a looping jump ball and Tre’Davious White ate Mims up for an incompletion.
First viewing of Mims…nothing good/bad to report. Need more time.
-- Who is not good (for FF)…Devin Singletary (8-29-0, 2-18-0/5). He’s got Zack Moss (7-47-0, 3-25-0/3) up his rear now, he’s got a terrible run blocking O-Line, and Josh Allen takes rushing TD chances and doesn’t throw a ton to RBs consistently.
I’m throwing in the towel…whatever that means. He’s an RB3-3.5 who gets decent touches. Latavius Murray gets as good of touches as Singletary in a game (Kamara steals from Latavius, Allen/Moss steal from Devin), and that’s just the first thought RB off the top of my head to compare Singletary for FF right now.
Singletary is talented. Promising results from his rookie season (especially when you consider how his rookie numbers might compare to top rookie picks from this class) but no follow through as Buffalo went smart for the NFL with an RB-duo…but then their O-Line weakened at the same time. I see nothing to get me excited about Singletary for FF short of a Moss injury and gone/out.
-- The Bills’ WR report…
Cole Beasley (11-112-0/12) had a great game because Diggs was double covered a lot and John Brown was out.
When John Brown returns, it further opens this offense for Josh Allen…and Brown will benefit by being the #2 WR for a high functioning passing game.
Gabriel Davis (1-11-0/3) didn’t seize any control of an opportunity to burn Jets CBs. He’s solid but not amazing/going to take over as a starter on purpose anytime soon.
Stefon Diggs (6-48-0/11) mediocre FF game. Gets punished for being with Josh Allen, and the Allen fade, so I’m buying Diggs with two-fists. Diggs-Allen is going to Adams-Rodgers-lite or like. Diggs is a top 5 PPR WR YTD but gets treated like a WR1.5 in the trade market. I will buy it all.
If my 6pts per pass TD/PPR league team was scuffling with like a (2-5) record and was rocking a flimsy QB…I’d try to buy Allen-Diggs and shove all my chips in on them as the most undervalued duo in fantasy.
-- Lamical Perine (11-39-1, 2-16-0/3) looked OK in this game. He ended up playing 40-15 snaps over Frank Gore, so it’s time to take this a little bit more seriously than I have. Still, I’m not really all that interested. I know this is a bad offense/bad O-Line. I don’t want to invest in the mediocre RB from it…but he can have a James Robinson or Myles Gaskin ‘getting touches’ appeal.
Ty Johnson looked so good and promising last week, which means the Jets couldn’t find one carry for him this week. Makes sense…it’s the Jets…it’s the NFL.
Snap Counts of Interest:
54 = Perriman
48 = Berrios
45 = Mims
12 = Jeff Smith
40 = Perine
16 = Gore
72 = Diggs
70 = Gab Davis
61 = Beasley
40 = Singletary
35 = Moss
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Steelers 27, Titans 24
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I know just about all anyone cares about from this game is Chase Claypool v. Diontae Johnson analysis…we’ll get to that first thing in the player section.
As far as this game overview goes…it’s weird. The Steelers got up 27-7 with 10 minutes left in the 3rd-quarter and were dominating. I kinda stopped watching the game during the seven-at-a-time viewing of the early games because I thought it was over. Slowly but surely Tennessee started creeping back into the game and shutting down the Steelers offense…and at the end, Tennessee was lining up for a game tying FG to go to overtime at the buzzer, and Stephen Gostkowski pulled it left…and...ball game.
The Steelers were dominant for 35 minutes, and then the Titans controlled things/stormed back the final 25 minutes. Really, the Steelers won the details of the game…72.2% on 3rd-downs and 37/23 minute time of possession hold. It visually felt like the Steelers were the better team, to me.
The Steelers are now (6-0)…and it hasn’t been a picturesque (6-0)…but undefeated nonetheless. They head to a road game showdown with the Ravens this week…and the Steelers will either fall to 2nd-place with a loss or open up a two-game lead with a win and really have some control of the AFC North and a shot at a #1 seed. The Steelers are headed for 11-12 wins, maybe more…but that could be a divisional winner or a #1 wild card.
The Titans fall from the unbeatens (5-1) but still have the lead in the AFC South, and with a favorable schedule ahead the Titans should win 10-11 games and take the division – they’re just better than Colts all-around, in my opinion, unless Gostkowski ruins them like Vinatieri did the Colts last year.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- It was so nice that the Chase Claypool (1-0-0/1) hype train hit into the side of a mountain, full speed, in Week 7. After 5 TDs his prior two weeks, which was nearly 7-8 TDs in that span…Claypool got one official target here. Thank you for your service, Chase…
Diontae Johnson (9-80-2/15) returns from his constant little injuries, forcing him to leave games early, and you would think that would be held against him or throttled back or time to re-integrate – but he doesn’t miss a beat and is the star of the game…all while I guided everyone to not have to push him into lineups, so as to see what we were dealing with in this new Steelers WR configuration.
Diontae has cost my season in some places, or just made it harder than it needed to be, by helping hand me three losses -- two times, in back-to-back weeks, he left the game one touch in with an injury and never returned…forcing my FF teams to play a man down right off the jump. Jeff Wilson gets hurt scoring his 3rd TD of a game…because I don’t own Jeff Wilson. The guys I own all get injured one play in, leave me with a zero or negative score, and screw my FF-team for the week. This week, Diontae found a new way to screw me…having been burned by him for weeks, I decided to ‘wait and see’ how he’d integrate back in – so, he was often on my bench scoring an S-load of points while my starting Claypool thus took his zero to have me playing, essentially, a man down again due to a Steelers star WR.
Diontae and Claypool have been two of my best stories of 2020, when you stop and consider. Two elite talents/mega fantasy producers in games. Two guys we took middle/late in redrafts, Best Ball, stole in Dynasty drafts as bargains the past two years – two sensational football scouting wizardry, and yet…they have cost me more fantasy wins than any player I’ve had in 2020.
I hate myself in fantasy for what they’ve done. I can’t even enjoy the real story – that we out-scouted the whole of fantasy with them, and outsmarted the NFL (on Claypool) with these tremendous bargain players who are future elites. I should be celebrating this, instead I want to strangle them and I’m getting all kinds of emails from people who lost the same way who are thinking I’m a fantasy idiot and questioning why they subscribed this year. I did my scouting job at an elite level, like no one else…and all it has done is cost me trust with my clients and myself, by helping force losses I shouldn’t have taken.
Arguably my two greatest calls of 2020 are causing people to think I’m an idiot and questioning my football knowledge. You think your fantasy season has been difficult…
Welcome to Fantasy Football 2020.
What’s worse is the question you have for me this week – what do we do with Claypool now?
I don’t know.
What I do know is whatever I thought I knew about what to do with either of these guys in a given week is going to wind up to be the wrong thing. So, I’m going to give you my thought process on ‘what now’, but feel free to do the exact opposite…because if there is any fantasy trend that works in the Diontae/Claypool ecosystem – it’s that whatever reasonable, expert opinion I have…the opposite will be true in that upcoming week’s fantasy results.
My take on Diontae/Claypool/the Steelers’ WRs:
I wondered, after this game, if Claypool just didn’t play but like half the game and was treated as a backup…and that ‘benching’ forced this weak week. But…
Steeler WR snap counts:
65 = JuJu
59 = Diontae
51 = Claypool
18 = J Washington
As I suspected going into this week – James Washington was the odd man out. He has to be. Claypool is too good to sit.
So, Claypool is now a real starter. That’s a great sign, puts my mind at ease. But why only 1 target?
Well, Claypool did have two other targets and a jet sweep…all negated by penalty. Not that having 3-4 touches in a game is amazing, but it’s not ‘one’.
From my vantage point watching this tape – Ben was really locked in on Diontae like Aaron Rodgers is with Davante Adams. Further helping the Ben-Diontae show here was the Titans playing back, almost in a zone and Ben playing easy pitch and catch with Diontae underneath wide-wide-wide open…which we love to see, for Diontae!!!
Diontae was working. JuJu was getting left alone/lesser coverages. Claypool got more attention. It was the right thing to do, mostly, for Ben. The first TD of this game (called back for penalty) was from the 1-yard line, Claypool came around for that insta-TD jet sweep, but they faked it and went the other way with James Conner. 3-4 defenders were rolling to Claypool in motion, others were stopped in their tracks…by the time they realized Conner was going the other way for an easy TD pass it was too late to get near him. Claypool is getting that attention now…good for him/the Steelers, bad for FF when he’s a decoy.
Claypool is a starter for Pittsburgh…and that’s a good thing. There’s now a fear they just use him as a bit player all season now after what he just did the prior few weeks. Before Tyler Lockett caught 15 passes for 200 yards on 20 targets on SNF…he averaged 3.0 rec., 41.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game the two games prior…and people we’re giving up on him fearing D.K. Metcalf was stealing all the gold. Let’s not let one game result define the future when there’s cause to believe otherwise. It’s not like we’ve not seen Claypool playing like a star.
Two WRs can co-exist for FF from the same team. And JuJu is the least talented member of their trio and was discussed as droppable by some before he had a good FF game here.
Also, if you own Diontae and Claypool, or just Diontae…and if you had Diontae on the bench this week…you should be rejoicing. Diontae is now more confirmed elite than most FF WRs. In the three games Diontae played start to finish this season, he’s averaging:
7.7 rec. (12.7 targets), 76.3 yards, 1.0 TDs per game.
You know what that is in fantasy PPR terms? 21.0 FF PPG. You know where that would rank in 2020 among all WRs in PPR PPG? #3 overall.
#1 Davante Adams
#2 Tyler Lockett (after his Week 7/SNF)
#3 Diontae in his three full games.
I told you that he was the new A.B. last year, and wrote about it again weeks ago. And then you acquired or confidently started him because of me…just in time for his injury zeros and hated me for it. Now he just scored 29 PPR points in a game, and I advised to bench him with other options, and now I’m hated for that.
You have the next elite PPR WR in fantasy…and all I am getting/feeling is angst about it.
Welcome to Fantasy Football 2020.
I am ‘buying’ Chase Claypool stock in fantasy, and especially in Dynasty, today…where I find weak holders. Nothing is worse than getting a zero in fantasy…it negates+ the 4 TD week from two weeks prior (likely on their bench too). Last week, people were wanting to trade Diontae because he was injury prone and couldn’t exist/thrive with Claypool as a new star. This week, Diontae is a star and Claypool might have just been lucky. That’s how fast people’s football mindset changes…which leads to rash, emotional deals.
When a fantasy player doesn’t perform – they must be punished by their owners. I know this after a decade dealing with every walk of life in FF. Great performances are ‘luck’ and bad performances must be dealt with immediately, usually with sweeping statements how two WRs can’t coexist, and Claypool won’t be Ben’s guy with Diontae there…and JuJu is back in Ben’s graces, so it’s even worse. Do we not remember Weeks 4-5-6 when Diontae was out? Ben going to Claypool like a star/like his #1…JuJu was still there and was a ghost in Claypool’s wake. A one-week shift/event changes all of that now?
I know football greatness when I see it…and Claypool has it, so I’m buying…seeking those FF owners ready to punish Claypool for his high crimes of putting up a zero last week (doubly punished if Diontae was on the bench with it too). I want to trade with the Claypool owner who thinks CC was a flash in the pan and Week 7 is the new reality going forward.
I’m also not overpaying for it. I know people are mad and panicked, so I’m slyly going to come in the back door and rob them.
-- Jonnu Smith (19-0/4) had a down game, so he must be punished by FF owners too. A down game and burning owners the week prior leaving early with an injury. This cannot stand. Heads will roll.
I’ll buy your downtrodden Jonnu stock. I’m not paying a lot, but I know this…his current owner is steaming, and I want to take advantage of it.
I have a slight fear that A.J. Brown being back changes the flow a bit away from Jonnu, but Smith got 1-2 end zone shots this game. Just didn’t connect. Jonnu doesn’t look 100% either. Two down weeks, but after Week 5 he was the #3 fantasy TE in PPG. That ain’t nuthin’?
Where I’m TE desperate, I’ll look into seeing if I can get a cheap deal. You can have my Harrison Bryant or Michael Thomas last second pickup to be your TE.
-- All these ‘toys’ for Ben (32-49 for 268 yards, 2 TDs/3 INTs) and he hasn’t thrown for 270+ yards in a game but once this season. He has thrown for 2.1 TDs per game this year though, likely headed to a career high passing TD count neat/at/above 40 TDs – like about a half-a-dozen+ QBs are going to do this season.
-- Ryan Tannehill (18-30 for 220 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) continues to not disappoint.
He’s not sexy but he is the #9 QB in FF PPG (4pts per pass TD), a slight tick behind Aaron Rodgers. If Tannehill had one more 10-yard run, he’d be 7th among QBs in FF PPG right now.
-- Robert Spillane (3 tackles) did a nice job filling in for Devin Bush. However, he got hurt in this game…hurt on maybe the best hit of the 2020 season. On a goal-line play, the Titans (of course) ran up the middle with Derrick Henry. The O-Line parted the red sea and DH had a clear path to the end zone with Spillane staring him down in his way. Spillane took off like a bat out of hell/Bobby Boucher and met Henry both going full speed and he dropped Henry like a sack of potatoes. It looked cool, but Spillane about knocked himself out, got hurt, and left the game.
Spillane is going to be IDP good this year as a new starting ILB. I hope he’s physically OK for Week 8.
-- The Steelers-DST is showing some cracks. They squashed Cleveland Week 6 but in-between that Tannehill-Wentz pushed scoring/numbers on them. I don’t know how great a play they are for Week 8 at Baltimore, but they’ve been good enough so far in 2020 to roll the dice with them and see.
Their schedule the rest of the year is pretty favorable. You can pretty much run them the rest of the season and have hope in a year of hopeless DSTs.
-- The Titans-DST is an interesting case…
Top 12 in PPG allowed in the NFL, middle of the pack in yards, top 5 in turnovers, bottom 5 in sacks. Gave up a lot to the Steelers right away, but then shut them off and allowed a comeback to occur (nearly). They gave up a lot to Houston Week 6, but held high-flying Buffalo to a season low 16 points. Prior to that they allowed 30 and 30 to lowly Jacksonville and Minnesota…the results are all over the place with them, but I can say this: They have talent, they’ve missed some guys due to injury. When Adoree Jackson returns it’s a boost.
If you can accept that the Titans DST is ‘not bad’, then the schedule ahead isn’t the worst thing in the world…in an era of ‘lacking’ DSTs and people hoarding DSTs:
Week 8 = at CIN (YES, bad O-Line)
Week 9 = v. CHI (YES)
Week 10 = v. IND (YES)
Week 11 = at BAL (NO)
Week 12 = at IND (YES)
Week 13 = CLE (YES)
Week 14 = at JAX (YES)
Week 15 = DET (YES)
Last season, the Titans-DST was #8 in fantasy (Weeks 1-16). They have the same/better unit back this year. They play efficient football to hold time of possession to help their defense. Among the unclaimed DSTs in leagues…the Titans might be a trash that turns to a mild treasure. Maybe.
Snap Counts of Interest:
65 = JuJu
59 = Diontae
51 = Claypool
18 = J Washington
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7: Game Analysis: Eagles, 22, Giants 21
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
It looked like, for a moment, the NY football Giants would be in 1st-place (tied) after Week 7 with a big win over the Eagles…it was minutes away, but then it was gone. The Eagles scored on their final drive with seconds remaining and it was Philly that took a commanding lead in the NFC East.
All I kept thinking Thursday night watching these two turds play each other – man, I liked Thursday Night’s prior week game so much better (there was none).
The Eagles win to go to (2-4-1) and if they beat Dallas next week…they will almost put away the division, in a sense. If Dallas wins that Week 8 battle -- then the much-maligned Cowboys will take the NFC East upper hand.
If the Eagles win Week 8…we still only see them finishing with 6 wins, but 6-9-1 would likely win this division.
A loss to Dallas Week 8, with such a tough schedule ahead for Philly (@CLE-SEA-@GB-NO-@ARI-@DAL Weeks 11-16)…the Eagles might all be but finished for the NFC East. But the division is so awful, you can’t count anyone out. If Washington beats Dallas this week…all hell will break loose in a three-team race all the sudden. Three bad teams…and the Giants still, technically, in it.
The Giants have fallen way behind now. They could’ve had some real long-shot hope to win the NFC East, but this loss really pierced that bubble. Losing here, knowing Daniel Jones is not ‘it’, and no Saquon Barkley in 2020…the Giants are ‘folding’. They traded DE Markus Golden to Arizona Friday, to send the signal that they realize they have little chance to compete, even in this mess of an NFC East.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I’m dead serious here… Carson Wentz (25-43 for 359 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 7-14-1) should be in the league MVP discussion.
He’s not playing very good football, but you shouldn’t lay it at his feet -- consider he has had no offensive line all year…they’ve lost virtually every OL starter from the jump. They’ve lost all their starting WRs and TEs in-season…and now they’re missing their starting RB for a week or two. Wentz has had nothing to work with and he’s getting crap kicked out of him in the numbers of hits he’s taking – but he’s giving his body over to the game taking a league leading amount of hits (including his increased running), winning this game and near wins vs. BAL and PIT the prior two weeks – doing it with Travis Fulgham and Richard Rodgers. To that end, Doug Pederson is in the Coach of the Year discussion…not ‘to be fired’ mocking.
I’m not a Wentz guy, but he’s giving every ounce of everything he has to try and win games for the Eagles. You have to give him a lot of credit.
He’s also becoming a top QB1 FF play by attrition because he is the offense…he’s rushing for a TD almost every game, and now starting to toss 2 TDs a game the past three weeks. He’s likely to have worked his way to the top 10-12 QBs in PPG for the entire season once this week closes. Considering how bad it started – that’s a credit to him, and it pushes the Jalen Hurts takeover story almost off the table for 2020 (unless injury hits…which the way Wentz is taking hits, might happen sooner than we think).
-- Daniel Jones (20-30 for 187 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 4-92-0)…not an MVP performance. He’s getting painful to watch play QB. He’s functionally illiterate playing the position.
My guess is NYG plays out the season with Jones starting all the way to give the world a whole year to see how bad he is and then they’ll be able draft a new QB in 2021.
May I remind the class…this was the #6 pick in the NFL Draft.
The next pick after Jones…Jacksonville promising edge pass rusher Josh Allen.
After Jones was taken #6, three more QBs went top 100 overall. Dwayne Haskins (#15), Drew Lock (#42), Will Grier (#100). Jones-Haskins-Lock-Grier…four mega-busts. And I defy you to find ANY football scout or analysts alive who called these four QBs scouting, pre-Draft, better than I did at College Football Metrics?
-- Boston Scott (12-46-0, 3-46-1/5) saved a fantasy disaster (of his scoring) with an alley-oop throw off a poorly executed wheel route turned stunning, game winning TD catch for Scott.
With this O-Line and all the WR/TE issues, Scott had nowhere to run…neither does Miles Sanders. It’s too much to ask/to overcome.
Jason Huntley (2-13-0, 0-0-0/1) is not an answer either…if he were forced in as a starter, he’d be stuffed like the others guys. This is as much an O-Line downer story as it is anything else.
I’d sell Scott to the Sanders’ owner this week if you could pull off a sweet trade. I’d sell Sanders hot if he is cleared for return Week 8 (but I think it will be 50/50 all week).
-- Wayne Gallman (10-34-1, 5-20-0/5) might be the better FF play than any RB on either of these two teams. Devonta Freeman (3-8-0, 0-0-0/1) got hurt and Gallman filled in and provided a spark in this game – and we’ve seen glimpses of that for weeks.
I’m not saying Gallman is a future star, but I have been hinting for weeks that he could end up mattering/stealing this job. I gave up on it last week, and then, of course, now he might be their new starter.
I like the heart and passion and elusiveness Gallman runs with despite limited athleticism. He’s a very good receiver as well. We’ll evaluate his value in waivers Monday-Tuesday this week.
-- Evan Engram (6-46-0/9) had a chance to really get his FF numbers back on track, or at least give a good+ week…but he dropped that critical 30+ yard bomb right into his hands on the run and he gaffed it.
Because Engram dropped two passes on a solo night game, he’s going to get labeled a ‘drops’ guy. Not that he doesn’t deserve it. He’s one of the league leaders in dropped passes % this season, but it’s going to be magnified with this game…that bad drop at a crucial time.
The negativity is so bad, it might do two things this week:
1) His fantasy owners might give him away/drop him if they find any viable alternative. In Dynasty, if you wanted to sit on him and see what happens ahead (2020-21+)…he’s a throw in to deals now. He’s damaged his rep big-time.
2) There’s a chance he’ll be traded after another loss next week. Teams were already inquiring, now this game will be used to drop the price. I think the market is NOW if NYG is going to do it – trade him before Minnesota pushes Kyler Rudolph into the market (but he already is out in it) and before Zach Ertz returns from injury to get traded.
I think Buffalo and New England have to have an interest in TE upgrades for the stretch run. The Rams should trade for Engram and put him in Gerald Everett’s role, to amp of the weapons for LAR.
Engram would be OK in New England. He's a bad fit with Josh Allen, but not terrible…Allen throws rockets and Engram does not have soft hands. My nickel bet is Engram to San Francisco.
-- Sterling Shepard (6-59-1/8) returned…and you can’t deny he’s Jones’s ‘guy’. Two full games played by SS this season (Weeks 1 and 7), his averages per game in his two games in 2020: 6.0 rec. (7.0 targets), 51.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game). He’s going to be a nice WR2.5 with Jones. Which is a continuation of what he did last season with Jones.
-- Shepard is no Travis Fulgham (5-73-0/11)…the guy has become a literal star for Philly, a go-to WR. He’s a solid talent, not a future star…but he’s been so reliable it’s stunning this guy couldn’t get the time of day in the NFL for the past two years.
Just when you think DJax-Jeffrey-Ertz-Goedert are going to crowd him out…DJax is done, Jeffrey will likely never play another snap for Philly, Ertz either, and Goedert is a week/weeks away.
The Eagles are going to acquire WRs this next week in the trade market, and that’s Fulgham’s new threat…but Fulgham has already established himself with Wentz. He can be a real WR2 the rest of the way.
Who might the Eagles acquire?
Dante Pettis, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jamison Crowder, Keelan Cole, Will Fuller, A.J. Green, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, are a couple names to watch for.
-- Because the Eagles have no other options, Richard Rodgers (6-85-0/8) has his best game since 2015. Hey, right now…any TE port in this fantasy TE storm. He looked really slimmed down and mobile. He used to be a brick with legs.
Rodgers i0s a bridge to Goedert if you’re waiting for Goedert to ride in on a white horse and save your TE issues.
-- At a critical juncture of this game, a 4th & goal play…the Eagles went to their other TE. Converted WR they picked up off a practice squad weeks ago…Hakeem Butler (0-0-0/1). Such a critical spot/play and the Eagles draw up a play to isolate Butler, who joined the team a few weeks ago, hasn’t ever seen an NFL target – that’s the guy they throw an off-kilter alley oop to in a HUGE spot in the game? I appreciate their attempt at Butler usage, but maybe that wasn’t the best spot for his first NFL target in two seasons?
-- These two DSTs both held their opponents to reasonable (in 2020) points allowed. They also each got 3 sacks and 1 INT in the game.
The NFC East DSTs are of interest because they play each other a lot the next few weeks.
NYG has incompetent Daniel Jones and no run game, and Jason Garrett as O-C.
PHI has no O-Line and all WRs/TEs hurt right now.
DAL has Andy Dalton and no O-Line and Fumbles Magee Zeke Elliott, and empty headset Mike McCarthy.
WAS has Kyle Allen, no O-Line, and a college WR as lead RB.
What DSTs face these four NFC East teams or the Jets and Broncos the most the rest of the season?
Seattle = gets one of them for four consecutive weeks…Weeks 12-13-14-15.
A bunch of teams, including the NFC East teams, have three matchups with this group the rest of the way.
How about the next 4 weeks, who has matchups with them the most?
LAC, NYG and PHI = two each
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = B Scott
18 = Clement
08 = Huntley
05 = Hurts
69 = R Rodgers
09 = Croom
50 = Engram
36 = Kaden Smith
- Kardelen Duyan
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Dolphins 24, Jets 0
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I thought this would be the most uninteresting game report of the week. Miami shutout the Jets…not a shock. Hard to even report out on the players from the game because the backdrop of playing against the Jets warps opinions, trends, etc. However, in the final two minutes of this game…Miami trotted out Tua Tagovailoa, and that seemed meaningless at the time – until they announced him as the new starter a day later. That’s big, FF-changing news for sure. We’ll get to that.
As far as this game goes – easy win for Miami, as expected. They jumped out to a quick 21-0 lead and then kinda scuffled from there to a 24-0 victory heading to their bye week. Miami gets to (3-3) and is staring down a chance to make the playoffs. However, the move to Tua…no one knows the impact. We haven’t seen him but for two late game throws in this contest. He’s coming off a MAJOR hip injury/surgery. He hasn’t been with the first team much, you’d think. Training camp reports on him were mixed. We don’t know how this is going to go.
I’m assuming the Tua switch is going to go poorly, at first, but I’m open to the fact that the NFL play/plays are easier than college for most of the top QB prospects now…but I’m suspect on whether Tua is a top QB prospect. Miami having won two in-a-row, if they lose their first game with Tua, and it’s an ugly – there will be a fan revolt. He’s being put in a terrible situation to bring perfection right away. I hope he can, he’s a great kid…but I’d bet against it happening quickly (if at all).
Why change now? They could’ve been bringing in Tua for snaps for weeks -- just to get him ready if they were itching for a change. This absolutely smells like a rash ownership decision. Even the Bears waited for Mitch Trubisky to be ‘bad’ in a game to make the switch to Nick Foles. Miami just won two in a row scoring 33.5 points per game -- and after all that they decided to make a switch…why? Head coaches don’t mess with success like this. This has to be a decision from above…which means it’s going to bite them. When they try to switch back to Fitz, it will be weird…and could damage the Tua mystique/confidence. Too late now.
On the Tua switch, we project Miami will not make the playoffs and will go (5-11/6-10). With Fitz all the way, we projected (8-8) with a possible (9-7). I’m willing to see Tua in action to change my mind.
The Jets? They will go (0-16). They will NOT fire Adam Gase. They will pick #1 and draft Trevor Lawrence (who will not want to go there) and then they’ll trade Sam Darnold before the draft some time. Potentially Darnold to the Browns, as they trade Baker to New England.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- How will the offense change with Tua (2-2 for 9 yards, 0 TD/0 INT)? No clue.
We don’t know who he likes to throw to/who he has an on-field chemistry with. I’m hoping it’s Preston Williams (2-18-0/1), but the real answer may take weeks to figure out.
The Tua at Alabama version isn’t an easy/obvious translation to the NFL. Alabama had a dominant run game, O-Line, and WR group compared to their opponents. The Miami Dolphins offense has none of that going for them. Myles Gaskin (18-91-0, 4-35-0/4) will be the worst RB that Tua has ever played with…and Gaskin being so nothing allows defenses to sit back on Tua and play him to pass, so an even tougher road to hoe.
I’d like to tell you what all will happen ahead, but I haven’t seen Tua in NFL action but on two throws against the Jets in a prevent defense. My gut says the Tua debut prediction: https://youtu.be/lSPNQ82Sq4E
-- You know who looks really good, spry, and nicely targeted at WR? Breshad Perriman (4-62-0/8). You know…the Jets’ #1 WR?
Flacco was going after it with him, but it’s Joe Flacco…he missed an open Perriman on two 30+ yards throws, one an easy TD. I don’t know how high Perriman can go with Sam Darnold but considering they will be down a lot and throwing…Perriman might be a super-solid WR2-3 on volume ahead.
Perriman was dominant with Tampa Bay late last year, which got him a big deal with NYJ…he’s just now getting fully healthy. He looks really good/healthy/quick. He is looking and moving like a ‘#1’ for them…but the ‘them’ is a drag on his upside.
-- Speaking of spry WRs… I was watching Preston Williams (2-18-1/2) on some isolated tape…just to watch his feet again, to see if he’s ready if Tua is good for his business. But also knowing that PW is off ACL surgery, so I was re-checking that his so-so 2020 isn’t because he’s lost some ‘it’.
I still see the nice cutting ability and good speed on tape. It may not be as amazing as it was last year, but it’s still pretty good or pretty close to what I expect to see. He’s ready for Tua, but I don’t know if Tua is ready to push it to PW. Preston might be more athletically gifted, but not becoming more of a technician to go with it. Athletes like, better than Preston are flooding into the NFL. In 2019, he was a bit rare…in 2020…he’s another good prospect in a suspect offense.
There’s hope, and fear with a move to Tua for Preston.
-- Mike Gesicki (0-0-0/2) might not miss Ryan Fitz. You never know what the Gesicki output was going to be under Fitz. His last 4 games, Gesicki has: 1-1-5-0 for catch counts in a game.
At the same time, Adam Shaheen (3-51-1/3) is suddenly making waves. He scored a TD in this game, and almost had a 40+ yard score added but he was tackled a yard short. He’s still playing 20-30% of the snaps, not a feature role at all.
Miami is rotating Gesicki, Durham Smythe, and now Shaheen all game…and Shaheen is getting more and more time in the red zone because of his size. I’m not sure who Tua would prefer, he’s had more time with Shaheen in practice/camp probably.
-- The best-looking RB on the Jets roster…looks like newly signed Ty Johnson (3-42-0, 0-0-0/1) to me and it isn’t even debatable.
He entered this game midway and brought a spark not seen in two years for NYJ. He hit an 8-yard run on his inaugural carry, then blasted off with a 34 yarder the next carry. Of course, that was too much success for the Jets to handle so he was immediately brought to the sidelines and not seen touching the ball for a while.
Doesn’t Ty know the plan is to go (0-16)? We can’t be having successful plays, come on man.
If the Jets really are interested in playing and player development…we’re going to see more Ty Johnson ahead. A nice deep sleeper to sit on in deep roster FF leagues. The risk being the Jets are idiots…just ask Josh Adams.
-- Miami-DST pitching a shutout…been planning for this hope/matchup for weeks. Many of you were able to get in on it. I gotta admit…it felt good to watch a plan come to fruition. But now what?
Well, you will not confidently use the Miami-DST again until Weeks 11-12-13 for at DEN, at NYJ, CIN.
It’s a good pairing with KC, so maybe you think about holding them until then. If you have to, you could drop Miami in a regular 10-12 team league with regular roster sizes and try and re-pick back up again next week or two…maybe.
People are hoarding DSTs, so be careful. And Miami has a really good defense…that’s why I loved this hold/play. They may be OK Week 8 v. LAR. They might be OK Week 9 at ARI. Maybe OK v. LAC’s rough O-Line Week 10, but I don’t wanna face Herbert.
Just know that Miami has a really good defense. Tua may actually help it because he won’t be so radical bombing all the time and with the subsequent turnovers. Perhaps, Tua helps this DST with ball control, time of possession. Maybe.
Snap Counts of Interest:
39 = Gaskin
16 = Breida
06 = Laird
05 = Bowden
63 = Perriman
63 = Crowder
60 = J Smith
- Kardelen Duyan
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Falcons 40, Vikings 23
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I mean… The Falcons just went all (6-2) in the 2nd-half of 2019 Atlanta Falcons and opened up a can of whoop ass on the Vikings. This was a beatdown and a display of good, sometimes great, energized football. NFL teams firing their head coach early season 2020…now undefeated (2-0) in their next game (HOU and ATL).
It makes you think back to all that ‘the Falcons should’ve beaten Dallas and Chicago’ thoughts from Weeks 2-3…and this makes you wonder if the Falcons really are a solid (8-8) team that just needed a jolt. That jolt hit in this game – they destroyed Minnesota. It was 23-0 at one point, and 33-7 with 4 minutes left before Minnesota threw some garbage TDs at them.
The Falcons have three winnable games ahead (DET, at CAR, DEN)…if they can run the table, they would be (4-5) with 4 games left in division vs. TB and NO coming up. I’m not saying they will pull off a ‘run’ – I’m just saying there is suddenly a ray of hope. Enough of a ray that they can hold off on trading Julio Jones, etc., for a moment to see if they can sweep their next three and change the trajectory of the season.
Minnesota has no such luck. They needed a win here to prove they were still in it. Instead, they got humiliated and then traded Yannick Ngakoue and declared Danielle Hunter out for the year, effectively ‘folding’ on the season.
I wonder what Mike Zimmer will do now for the rest of the season now that they’ve ‘folded’? Will he run the ball less? Will he split more carries/take a burden off of Dalvin Cook with a 2021 mindset? The Vikings are about to become what we think of the Falcons – all passing in garbage time and a sieve defense to keep the garbage time going. It works for FF…for their WRs, QB and TE.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Because of the flow of where the Vikings are going, where they have been – deficits and a lot of passing needs, some of it garbage time – Justin Jefferson (9-166-2/11) is in a perfect spot to be a shock PPR WR1 this season, as a rookie. He’s been there for weeks – he’s the #1 WR in FF in PPR PPG since Week 3. Nothing is likely to stop him except maybe Week 10 at CHI and Week 14 at Tampa Bay, with their coverage guys/pass defenses.
He’s already a star. I’m shocked these guys, these rookie WR prospects are walking into the league and dominating within weeks. Not because of talent, but because there’s usually a harness put on them by the coach and/or QB. Not in anymore. Plus, the new breed WRs are just better than the old ones.
FYI…Jefferson is the #1 PPR WR in PPG since Week 3. You know who he is just ahead of? Travis Fulgham and Chase Claypool. You thought COVID made 2020 weird…
-- One of the potential FF-beneficiaries of the Minnesota ‘situation’ is Irv Smith (4-55-0/5)…another 4 catch game after barely being targeted Weeks 1-4.
Three things here:
1) 4.0 rec. (5.0 targets), 59.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game the past two games. That’s a top 18 TE production based on current PPR PPG for fantasy at TE…not far from #12/TE1
2) I didn’t see any real plan or desire to make Smith go, as a weapon, etc., in this game. He’s just a good guy to have on the field who gets throws his way. He’s faster than average at TE, has good hands…he works fine…like most every TE out there.
3) The Vikings are dumping 2020, so Kyle Rudolph is going to get traded…and that opens up more space for Smith to work. I suspect Smith to be a back-end TE1 in PPR when Rudolph is totally out of the way.
4) Kyle Rudolph could be semi-FF interesting depending upon where he lands. Look for the Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas City to all be interested in aiding their playoff run.
-- Alexander Mattison (10-26-0, 1-4-0/2) got wrecked in his big starting debut. You know why? In part because the Falcons have a top 5 run defense (least yards per game allowed), #11 in lowest yards per carry allowed, top 10 in least rushing TDs per game allowed.
-- What’s happened to Kirk Cousins (24-36 for 343 yards, 3 TDs/3 INTs) this year? He looks the same to me…solid, but occasionally makes head scratching throws.
Perhaps the answer lies here…
2018 = he was hit 39 times in 16 games (2.4 per game)
2019 = he was hit 30 times in 15 games (2.0 per game)
2020 = he has been hit 18 times in 6 games (3.0 per game)
He’s throwing in muddier pockets than usual, and Atlanta dared Alexander Mattison to beat them/dropped linebackers into coverage a lot this game…which seemed to confuse Cousins for some reason.
-- Matt Ryan (30-40 for 371 yards, 4 TDs/0 INTs) had no such issues this game. The three prior games, Ryan tallied 1 TD/2 INTs total…then pops off for 4 TDs here.
Is Ryan fixed…or is it the Vikings’ pass defense? I think it might be more the Vikings defense…and thus Minnesota decided to fold on the season.
Depending upon the pass defense metric, the Vikings are either #2 or #3 worst in the league in it. My internal numbers have Minnesota as the 2nd-best pass defense your FF assets want to face. Seattle the worst/best to face. I’m betting Minny will sink to #1 best to face soon.
-- Hayden Hurst (4-57-1/4) is starting to break through some for the Falcons. 3 TDs in his last 5 games. The results are high and low week-to-week but it’s starting to average up well. He’s one of the stronger TE1 hopeful’s week-to-week now.
-- Because the Vikings are ‘folding’ they are going to get thrown on a lot with their all young cornerback group…which means they’re all going to put up IDP numbers potentially.
Rookie CB Cameron Dantzler (11 tackles, 2 TFLs) looks terrible at CB so far…one of the worst in the league, but he’s had at least 4 tackles every game he’s played, averaging over 6+ total tackles a game which is strong for a CB.
Rookie CB Jeff Gladney (8 tackles) have averaged 5.4 tackles per game since becoming a starter.
Snap Counts of Interest:
44 = Irv Smith
38 = Rudolph
27 = Mattison
16 = Abdullah
05 = Boone
46 = Gurley
21 = Br Hill
11 = Ito
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Colts 31, Bengals 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Bengals raced out to a 21-0 lead in this game, scoring on the first play of the 2nd-quarter to go up three scores and leaving the Colts (and football society) stunned…and I felt great about my CIN +7.5 bet for this game. By halftime it was 24-21 Cincy, and I knew my bet was in trouble…and as the Colts took the lead in the 4th-quarter, I just prayed for the cover (and got it).
Zac Taylor should be fired for losing this game. Actually, the NFL should step and take this team away from the owners and give it to someone who knows what they are doing. This was one part, Zac Taylor is over his head -- and one part this roster is mostly a disaster outside of Joe Burrow.
This game revealed a lot of ‘truths’ for me…more than I expected, and we’ll get to player truths in a moment. But as far as the teams overall, we all already knew the Bengals stink. But here’s a truth not many would agree with – the Colts borderline stink too. A terrible (4-2) team.
The Colts have beaten (1-5) MIN, (0-6) NYJ, and (1-4-1) CIN. They also looked fairly flimsy in defeating (5-1) CHI Week 4. They’ve lost to (1-5) JAX and got manhandled by the Browns Week 5. The Jacksonville loss Week 1 was not a fluke…it was sign.
Now, the Colts aren’t Bengals bad. They just aren’t ‘win the division’ good. I don’t even know if they’ll make the playoffs without a QB change…and the QB may not even matter. If the Colts lose at DET Week 8 (Indy on bye this week) – they aren’t making the playoffs.
If Indy beats Detroit at Detroit Week 8, and that’s not a given, then we project them to go (8-8) this season with a chance at 9 wins. It’s very possible Indy is about to lose 4-6 games in-a-row from Weeks 9-14. If the Colts lose to Detroit Week 8, they the next 3 weeks after they will then lose to Baltimore and at Tennessee and then maybe to Green Bay and fall to (4-6) and has to make a QB change for Week 12 hosting TEN to save the season. From Weeks 9-16, the Colts play all playoff teams (TEN 2x, GB, LV, PIT, BAL) and Houston twice.
Here’s what is crazy about the Bengals…they are now (1-4-1), if they would have won their OT game tie with Philly Week 3, they’d be (2-3) right now. Had they not butchered this big lead/game against the Colts, at Indy, after a 21-0 lead…with the Philly hypothetical win, they could be (3-2) right now. Had they closed out the Chargers Week 1, instead of botching it…maybe (4-2) in range?
They’re too poorly coaches to have won all those games but consider that Cincy has been in and/or leading most of their games this season (except Week 5 v. CIN). This team is not terrible. I’ll take the points v. CLE this week, if CB Will Jackson is active/playing.
Cincy has three games upcoming with NFC East teams, so they might get 3-4 wins this season in the end. If the Bengals were in the NFC East, they’d be the favorite to win the division right now.
Let’s get to some interesting and/or shocking truths from this game...
Fantasy Player Notes:
-- This may be known as the game T.Y. Hilton’s (1-11-0/5) career ended…ended as in ‘no longer a star’ and barely a starting NFL WR anymore). I don’t know or care what his official ‘drop’ count is this year (because the NFL numbers/whomever is in charge of it – they’re a joke)…but it’s shocking to watch how many passes TYH butchers now. Even simple ones. At first, I thought it was just a fluke…now, it’s ‘the norm’. I don’t know what is wrong -- secret injury, Rivers, age catching up…but it is what it is. He’s becoming borderline useless for the NFL, much less for fantasy.
That’s not totally shocking news. Here’s what is shocking news…
Early in the game, as the Colts faltered and tried to get back into it, Rivers went to Hilton like you would expect…but to no avail. Drops, him not open, etc. I could feel, on the re-watch, that Rivers just gave up on Hilton…and thus the rise of all the other Colts options. It’s the third/fourth time I’ve seen Rivers just stop trying with TYH.
Hilton saw three of his 5 targets while they were getting down 21-0. Hilton got all five targets in the 1st-half. He was not targeted in the 2nd-half. It wasn’t because of some awesome coverage. The Colts outscored the hapless Bengals 31-6 from the 2nd-quarter on (after it was 21-0)…it was a great offensive burst and T.Y. Hilton was not a part of it on purpose -- frozen out in the 2nd-half. I think because Rivers is sick of him and is finding prosperity everywhere else.
The death of T.Y. Hilton (and Pittman/Campbell hurt) is bringing on the shock WR statement: I think Marcus Johnson (5-108-0/8) might be the Colts/Rivers’s new #1 WR. A possible Midwest version of the Travis Fulgham story happening – out of attrition, a WR rises. The 100+ yard game here, might not be a total fluke/freak event.
Down 21-0, Marcus Johnson connected with Rivers on a 55-yard bomb and Johnson was tackled at the 1-yard line...setting up a Colts easy TD right after and the comeback underway. Later in the game, Johnson was wide open on a 60+ yard bomb, 2-3 yards ahead of coverage, and Rivers overthrew it. We nearly had a 6-165-2/8 game that would have sent everyone diving to the waiver wires to make claims, even with a Colts bye week.
Johnson is an unusual story in the NFL, one of the most odd that I’ve ever seen…
-A nothing career at Texas…a bit player/producer at WR.
-Runs a 4.39 40-time at his Pro Day, along with a 37” vertical, a high-end 11’3” broad jump and 22 bench reps from a 6’1”/204 WR is pretty antique/sweet. Overall, high-end speed/power numbers (especially for his size). A 7.26 three-cone was below average for what you want to see.
-Goes undrafted in 2016. Signed by the Eagles for a tryout.
-Impressed the Eagles, and me, in his rookie preseason…enough so to put him on the practice squad for 2016.
-2017, got called up to the Eagles’ main roster and saw some playing time.
-Impressed Seattle enough to include him in a deal in 2018 to trade away Michael Bennett, exchanging picks but also Seattle wanted to add Marcus Johnson from Philly…and they got him.
-Johnson got hurt in 2018, and Seattle gave up…but Indy grabbed him and put him on their practice squad. Why Indy? Frank Reich knew him from the time in Philly 2016-2017.
-Johnson got called up to the main roster in 2019. He started a few games. He had a 3-105-1/7 game Week 14. He had a few moments but was a stuck in the Colts passing game decline late 2019.
-Back to the practice squad again for Johnson in 2020 but called up with the Parris/Pittman injuries and the past two weeks he has averaged 4.0 rec. (5.5 targets), 81.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game.
It’s not that Johnson has received a fortuitous spike in targets that has my interest piqued…it’s a combination of things.
(a) Johnson has talent, he is above average in athleticism and seems unfazed catching the ball at the NFL level. He looks like he’s been a starter all his life. It’s been a five-year grind.
(b) Watching Travis Fulgham go from nothing to reliable/#1 WR for a team…because of mass injury opening the door for him. Johnson is in that same boat, kinda.
(c) As Hilton dies…opportunity rises.
(d) the most important…you could see the relationship happening with Rivers-Johnson a bit Week 5, but then full scale here Week 6.
I don’t know if it’s (Rivers-Johnson) going to hold up because I don’t know if Rivers can hold up, but I know this…something is happening with Hilton-Rivers-Johnson, and it’s good for Johnson and in deeper roster leagues…I’m taking a look because I denied Fulgham in disbelief that guys like that get a real, sustainable chance. Johnson could be the next in line to benefit from his situation.
-- Speaking of WRs I’ve slept on…Tee Higgins (6-125-0/8) really looks good. I did not see that coming. I thought for sure Tyler Boyd (5-54-0/8) would be the money and Higgins a bit player. But for two weeks now, I’ve been pushing this ‘Higgins is Burrow’s guy’ theory. That theory didn’t get derailed here.
I don’t know that Tee Higgins is a star talent, but like Fulgham-Johnson…it’s working. There’s a connection happening. No reason to deny it.
I could have been way off on my Higgins scouting, but I don’t think I’m that far off – just that he is better than I scouted and he’s in a great spot where he’s growing with Burrow as Boyd-Green take the better coverage. A perfect storm scenario.
-- Also, note…to all of you dismissing/giving up on Joe Burrow (25-39 for 313 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) because he has 1 TD/3 INTs the past three weeks – you’re wrong to do so.
You don’t want Burrow FF-playing for you in a bad matchup…like the Ravens game Week 5. Like the Steelers game coming Week 10. But in any decent matchup…he’s safe with upside.
Note a few things on Burrow…
1) He had at least two passing TDs here in this game, a couple falling just short of the goal line. Just an unlucky outcome. Not poor play.
2) He has thrown for 300+ yards in four of his last 5 games. Only the Ravens game was a down yards game (183 yards).
3) The Bengals possibly being (2-3) or (3-2) or even (4-1) was on the table, but Cincy has a terrible O-Line and no defense and poor coaching…the only reason why the Bengals are formidable is because of Burrow putting them on his back.
The numbers Burrow is producing right away, with this team…they are stunning. He has arguably the worst O-Line in the NFL, he’s taking the most hits, and still completing 65% of his passes. Still throwing for 300+ yards. Still keeping his team in games to win them. I’m totally impressed.
4) Joe Burrow is a modern-day Joe Montana…only instead of having the most innovative coach of his era and the best run organization to work with, he has the total opposite of that.
I keep talking about Justin Herbert and we all see ‘it’…because of his size, arm, etc. But Burrow just doesn’t look like that, so he gets perceived differently…but he is…he’s differently great like Herbert. You can argue which one is better, but it shouldn’t mean Burrow isn’t also elite. He is. Buy him on sale for Dynasty, if he is.
If Cincy hires Joe Brady to be their head coach in 2021…Burrow’s stock will go through the roof.
-- Trey Burton (4-58-1, 1-1-1) is not impressing me, but I cannot deny his touch counts. He just doesn’t look like his old self…he’s playing stiff but catching his targets. He’s useful for FF until he isn’t. But I don’t see the upside here, unless he has rust getting knocked off and gets better as he goes. With Jack Doyle (3-29-1/5) there and Mo Alie-Cox set to return soon…I just don’t love the setup…but it’s working now for FF on a small scale.
-- Drew Sample (0-0-0/1) is not working.
Since his great 4th-quarter in Week 2, on national TV…he has averaged 1.5 rec. (2.3 targets), 17.5 yards, and 0.0 TDs per game. Joe Burrow loves tight ends, but not Sample…apparently.
-- Another inconvenient truth…the Colts-DST is droppable. You’re holding on to them, but you’re more likely to regret it than not.
The Colts defense got pushed around by the Browns and then boat raced here by Cincy early on. Those are offenses the Colts D should’ve pounced on, even without Darrius Leonard. We’re giving the Colts-DST too much credit for crushing the Jets and Vikings and holding down the Bears. That’s not a great resume.
The Colts-DST is #2 in all of FF in PPG…how can you cut that?
If you ignore the Jets game, they would be 8th in FF PPG…down with CLE, GB.
If the Colts play the Jets – definitely start them. The problem is the schedule ahead…
You’re holding them through a BYE to what…play them at Detroit? That might be OK, but it’s not super-juicy…and then what? Lamar-Tannehill-Rodgers-Tannehill-Watson-Carr-Watson-Ben through to Week 16. You’re going to start them confidently versus any of those teams/QBs? I don’t think so. You’re better off taking any NFC East DST facing an NFC East offense.
You’re holding onto a good/OK-not-great DST…you’re holding on to a semi-myth driven by the Jets game Week 3 (two pick sixes among other things…nearly half their seasons FF scoring happened in that one game).
Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Hilton
58 = Pascal
40 = M. Johnson
39 = Doyle
35 = Burton
37 = J Taylor
21 = Hines
04 = Wilkins
59 = Higgins
58 = AJG
57 = Boyd
01 = Ross
55 = Sample
23 = C Carter
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Bears 23, Panthers 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Panthers went toe-to-toe with the Bears here. Both teams are not overflowing with talent, but they play hard and with energy. This game could’ve gone either way, and I would say Carolina felt like the better team, but it was close…but in the end Chicago got 3-to-1 turnovers, got 4 sacks to Carolina’s none, and Chicago converted 50% of their 3rd-downs – and that’s a winning number most weeks. Chicago earned their win, for sure. I just felt like Carolina with a little less bad luck on the turnovers (like a tipped pass turned diving miracle catch INT type things) might have won this game. The Panthers were knocking on the door of TDs early and settling for field goals and it caught up to them in the end.
Two ‘good’ teams, not great teams…not Super Bowl threats, maybe not ever making the playoffs – but you don’t want to play either of these teams.
Carolina is now (3-3), and in the playoff hunt…but their schedule ahead is a gauntlet. NO, KC, TB, GB loom ahead through Week 15. IF Carolina can beat the Saints at New Orleans Week 7…it would be a statement game and a moment where we might start taking the Panthers as a wild card seriously. As it stands, it’s a tall order for a young team with a rookie head coach. We project them 7-8 wins at best.
The Bears keep rolling along, now (5-1)…lucky not to be (1-5), but luck is a good thing. It may not be luck if they keep pulling these tight games out/holding on to wins. The Bears could really make a statement with a win at L.A. versus the Rams Week 7. The schedule ahead gets tough for a few weeks then eases up to the finish. We project them to 9-10 wins, but more bias towards the 8-9 win range. If they beat the Rams this week, then the Bears are all but assured of getting a wild card in the end and are then squarely in the NFC North title discussion because they are built to beat the Packers…and the Bears have Nick Foles, so anything is possible.
Fantasy Player Notes…
Not much fresh to talk about here. No amazing revelations. I will hit on some topics of interest though…
-- Robby Anderson (4-77-0/5) really looks good in this offense working with Teddy. Robby had an OK enough game but credit the Bears for their defense against him. D.J. Moore (5-93-0/11) having more targets/a bigger game…it’s more a function of focus, by a good defense, on Robby.
But to a greater FF point…anytime Moore outdoes Robby, there is a wing of fantasy people who are clutching to a D.J. Moore dream that thinks it means DJM is the NOW the #1 WR for Carolina, or more that he always has been. You want to buy Robby Anderson off them if they fear that…or you want to sell them D.J. Moore for a lot.
Nothing wrong with Moore, but he’s a 2nd-fiddle here, a good 2nd-fiddle…it’s Robby that will lead the way for FF with them this year, as he has been.
-- Darnell Mooney (3-36-0/5) is a really good-looking, young WR prospect. I don’t know if he’ll become a superstar but he could be a Diontae Johnson-lite or a Calvin Ridley-like thin/wiry, athletic, great feet, great hands (Mooney has better hands than most WRs in the 2020 NFL Draft)…he runs a 4.38. He’s got a lot going for him. He’s already starting in the NFL. He’s good.
What’s not great for him is this Bears/Matt Nagy passing game that’s just as stiff/dull as it was under Mitch Trubisky, but Foles is a better ‘money’ QB. Foles is smart…he’s going to work Allen Robinson (5-53-0/9) because he should. Mooney is a 2nd-fiddle, but one of these games coming up Mooney is going to hit a homerun ball and get himself on the map – but don’t let the 4.38 speed be the story when he has his catch and run big play – he’s an all-around WR, not just a one-note WR.
-- Cole Kmet (2-20-1/2) scored a TD. Nothing to see here. A rookie playing 30%+ of the snaps in games behind Jimmy Graham (5-34-0/8), nothing more…nothing less. He’s a very average TE talent. In a few years in a progressive offense, he might be something…but in Chicago with Nagy he’ll be a solid-ish but forgettable TE.
-- Mike Davis (18-52-1, 2-3-0/3) is going to play this week. No fears of injury keeping him out. I’m sure he’s banged up so it’s for the best they rest Davis as much as they can between games. If Curtis Samuel (DNP) was healthy you’d see him play a lot more snaps to help relieve Davis some. Samuel is iffy for this week. Davis should be fine/heavy workload.
Trenton Cannon (3-12-0, 2-15-0/2) is nothing interesting. I’m surprised he’s still in the NFL.
Note: Carolina signed UDFA rookie Mike Warren from the Eagles…he’d be a name down the road if CMC can’t come back and if Davis and Samuel are banged up. Rodney Smith is a UDFA practice squad RB the Panthers keep inviting back as well.
CMC should be back in the Week 9-10 range, so you got a few more weeks with Davis. I get a lot of emails/questions about FF-selling off Davis (if they don’t own CMC) before CMC comes back in, and I get that.
I’m open to any deal but if you can’t make a good deal, just use Mike D. for what he was a worth, a temporary savior. Be glad for the good times. Don’t be so into being crafty at selling at just the right time…that you sell him off short and regret it because you were trying to be too slick. Sometimes you get a free ride, you take it, and then it ends…and you’re blessed that it happened. Don’t be afraid to trade him but don’t make the desire for a slick timing/trade be the driver of your emotions. Get a great value if you can, but sometimes you just sop up the remaining gravy on the plate with your biscuit and be left with an empty plate when CMC returns, but having had a satisfying meal for several weeks.
Who knows when CMC is coming back, or if he’s more hurt than any of us knows…or if CMC returns and reaggravates and here we go again?
-- CAR DE Brian Burns (3 tackles, 3 QB hits) is getting to the QB more and more…but little sacks to show for it. These trends tend to foretell sacks to come. Six QB hits his past three games but just 1.0 sacks. He may start to rack them up soon at the pressure pace he’s going at lately.
-- The Bears-DST is looking good, but this is nowhere near the 2018 dominating Bears-DST. It’s just very good but susceptible to good offenses…and they haven’t really played any killer offenses. They scuffled with Atlanta and Detroit and handled Tampa Bay OK. The schedule for the next several weeks is filled with tougher offenses/better QBs.
I want to see how they handle the Rams (or not) to then think about whether to keep them for the NO-TEN-MIN-BYE-GB stretch Weeks 8-12. I don’t think there’s a lot of FF points there.
Snap Counts of Interest:
58 = ARob
44 = Mooney
44 = A Miller
13 = Wims
45 = J Graham
23 = Kmet
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6: Game Analysis: Bucs 38, Packers 10
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I have to move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Was this that the Buccaneers are so good…and the Packers are frauds?
Was this just a lucky/blip game by Tampa Bay…and an unlucky blip by Green Bay?
A week+ ago, the Bucs scuffled and lost to the Bears and no one thought them to be killers…now, this week, they’re headed to the Super Bowl. That’s football fan life.
The Packers were going to be the #1 seed, now people are wondering if GB will be a wild card behind the Bears winning the NFC North.
I think the story is… The Buccaneers have a pretty salty defense, as we’ve been saying all season. Now, everyone agrees/sees. When you have a physical, daunting defense…you’re a bad matchup for finesse teams. The Packers are a finesse team…they are S-A-W-F-T. That’s why the 49ers kept embarrassing them last year. And why the Chargers whooped them last season out of nowhere. The Packers didn’t beat an out-of-division playoff team in the regular season last season except KC, and that was barely beating the Mahomes-less/Matt Moore Chiefs late game comeback. The Bucs are better built for NFL success as we go…Green Bay has the better QB vs. Tampa, but lesser everything else.
The Packers are going to be hard-pressed to cruise to the NFC North title…because the Bears are not super talented, but they have grit. They are not S-A-W-F-T. They might punch the Pack in the mouth Week 12 on a Sunday night in their first of 2 matchups. It’s still a 10-11 win Packers team. A good team, not a great team. Likely the NFC North champs, but not assured.
Tampa Bay is the class of the NFC South. The Saints peaked a year or two ago and are slowly gliding downward. The Panthers are a year away from doing battle with TB for king of the NFC South, which will be Carolina by 2022…for a long run of dominance under Matt Rhule. The Bucs will win 10-11 games this year, and this TB win may come back to haunt Green Bay – if the Packers could force the Bucs to go to Wisconsin in January, huge advantage…and the opposite is true if they have to go to warmer Tampa. Tom Brady is not great in the cold, been that way for a few years.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Why isn’t Gronk (5-78-1/8) a TE1 from here on in?
#1) The bar to be a TE1 these days, after the top 3-4 guys…it isn’t very high. So most warm bodies can be TE1s.
#2) He’s playing 80%+ of the snaps in games…he’s out there/available for stats. He’s not rotating/playing 60% of snaps in games. He’s the best blocker and top target TE.
#3) Once O.J. Howard left things started perking up even heavier on snaps and targets. And the Bruce Arians offense that eschews the TE…it’s not Arians’ offense anymore…to no one’s surprise.
Gronk’s last 4 weeks: 3.8 rec., 51.7 yards, 0.25 TDs per game…6.7 FF PPG/10.5 PPR PPG. The #9 TE in FF since Week 3.
#4) This is the X-factor… Tom Brady is looking for him A LOT the last few weeks and it’s growing as we go…because Gronk is getting more in shape/knocking off the rust as we go (he looked terrible Weeks 1-2). When Brady drops back, if Gronk’s on a route (not blocking), I think Brady prefers him to Mike Evans, which is ludicrous but true.
Since Week 3:
15 catches, 24 targets, 207 yards, 1 TD = Gronk
15 catches, 23 targets, 175 yards, 4 TDs = Evans
With each passing week, Brady’s BFF’s numbers trend higher…as Evans sinks lower. The past two games, Evans has 3.0 rec., 25.5 yards, and 0.50 TDs per game.
Evan Engram can be as physically talented a TE as there is…but you want the TE whose QB is in love with him, and Gronk + Brady is definitely ‘sittin’ in a tree’.
-- Speaking of evolving TEs…Robert Tonyan (3-25-0/4) is starting to make more sense to me. The 3 TD game against Atlanta got everyone’s attention but, hell, Tyler Higbee had a 3 TD game Week 2 and it meant nothing after for increased usage.
I saw a continuation of Rodgers seeking, trusting Tonyan here. The Falcons game was a joke/a party/not necessarily reality, per se. But within this blowout, early on…I saw some of the Rodgers-Tonyan connection when it mattered, in a grind/against a tough defense, just in little simple passing plays – all of which helps confirm their growing relationship.
I was a Tonyan believer, in his sleeper talent, for 2+ years…fighting everyone about Jace Sternberger being lesser than Tonyan. I wasn’t a Tonyan-Rodgers connection believer after the 3 TD game, but now I am. Late to the party, but at the party. And because he’s still not really ‘believed in’ nationally, because there are so many Dalton Schultz, Drew Sample, Mo Alie-Cox type TEs that pop up for a moment and then disappear soon after (even if good players, the targets/action isn’t there)…Tonyan feels like one of them. He might be, but I’m starting to think he’s got a brighter future than all the others like him.
The good news…he’s fairly available in a deal. No one strongly thinks they have their TE1 for the ROS in most cases. He had a weak FF-game Week 6 to help foster doubts…but note he sprained his ankle early on, played through it some, then the game was a blowout and no need for him to push it. A down game causes fear that ‘he’s not real’.
Also, helping…he’ll be no practice or limited practice and questionable all week – but I think he’ll sit out all week to heal his ankle. I saw the sprain; he’ll need 4-5 days off it to get as fully ready as he can for Sunday. His ‘questionable’ label + not really practicing so far this week + forgetting the 3 TD game from eons ago creates more ‘doubts’. This week is your chance to strike if you believe.
-- A rather odd pattern to the Packers RB rotation, and one we’ve seen before…
I saw a lot of Jamaal Williams (4-34-0, 0-0-0/1) in the backfield early; it felt like…not getting big touches, but in for a lot of snaps. You’d think we’d see more Aaron Jones (10-15-1, 3-26-0/5) in a trouble game like this. It was likely more that the game was getting away and GB needed to pass and they like Jamaal protecting Rodgers better in known passing spots.
But to add to the furrowed brow…A.J. Dillon (5-31-0) has barely played this year, mostly taking final drive garbage/run out the clock touches. In this game, he was in the game taking carries early…looking like a chance to try and get the run game going with a more physical back. He looked good too. But it was only a blip and then he was the garbage man at the very end with the backup offense.
I think A.J. Dillon moved a step closer to starting to make Aaron Jones owners nervous. Still many more steps to go before it’s a real fear -- but Dillon is slowly popping up more and more and could be soon casting a shadow on just taking 5-10% of the touches in key parts of games.
-- Davante Adams (6-61-0/10) was back from his injury. He looked fine. Just CB Carlton Davis (6 tackles, 4 PDs) is a top cover corner now, as we were discussing this preseason…now everyone ‘knows it’.
-- Mike Evans (1-10-0/2) is the stud WR with issues from this game. His issue is one man too, but it’s not a cover corner…it’s Tom Brady. They have yet to look in sync and Brady prefers Gronk. If Evans wasn’t getting a bunch of 1-yard TDs he’d be the most depressing fantasy WR play of 2020.
Not sure I see the upside ahead either. It’s a Brady thing.
Chris Godwin (5-48-0/7) may suffer from the same affliction. Keelan Cole and Travis Fulgham are going to outscore Godwin for FF in 2020 on a per game basis – can you even mentally digest that? It doesn’t even seem possible. It’s a Brady thing, change has come. Jameis Winston is not walking through that door.
-- Ronald Jones (23-112-2, 2-8-0/2)…did I not say that he was looking great after Week 1? That he was the better of the two Tampa backs? Now, that’s not even a question.
The questions have gone from “Jones or Fournette” to “Should I drop Fournette?” Leonard’s value is only as the handcuff if RoJo goes down. Fournette will get some pity work, so as not to offend him…but this is RoJo’s backfield right now. Clearly the better back in the year 2020.
RB things change like the wind, so Fournette is not totally dead…but is making funeral arrangements for his FF 2020.
-- Equanimeous St. Brown (0-0-0/2) got active and they tried to get him integrated but he was miscommunicating with Rodgers on their couple of throws. No advancement of the ESB cause here.
-- You know who looked good at ILB, which is a kiss of death when I like a lowly UDFA ILB, usually…Krys Barnes (10 tackles, 0.5 TFLs). I’ve been pointing him out since Week 1…just the odd pattern of his playing time (in a good way) and the tackle counts he was getting in limited time.
Barnes played 88% of the snaps here, was the starter…and looked darn good. Looked like the new starting ILB for GB, not Ty Summers. Barnes impressed me on tape here. I’m buying in that he’s going to rise from here, but not a stone cold lock.
Snap Counts of Interest:
36 = A Jones
32 = Jam Williams
10 = Dillon
54 = Gronk
23 = Brate
36 = RoJo
19 = McCoy
10 = K Vaughn
