- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Vikings 19, Bears 13
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
What an exciting game to watch out at my local neighborhood Buffalo Wild Wings… Me enthusiastically wondering if Kyle Sloter was possibly going into the game late for carted-off Nick Foles was the most exciting thing this game provided to me, but because it’s 2020, and I can’t have nice things, or Diet Dr. Pepper, all I got a Tyler Bray unhappy ending.
What’s really sad is Bray made more money on his first throw of 2020 than I will make all year. I drowned my sorrows in Parmesan Garlic and Jammin’ Jalapeno wings. What I like about the Jammin’ Jalapeno wings is they’re a ‘limited time only’ sauce option at BWW, as marked on their menus, and they’ve been available without fail for at least a decade now…but they’re still marked as a ‘limited time only’. I’m so delighted every time I see it wondering if they are doing that on purpose or no one has caught.
It’s the little things in life that entertain me/drive me crazy.
Two paragraphs about the Buffalo Wild Wings to start this report, and little about the game itself – that tells you what you need to know here.
Game-wise, this might have been the singularly worst game of offensive football I’ve ever witnessed…from a team that has functional, talented offensive players – that being the Chicago Bears. Just when you thought Matt Nagy was the worst offensive mind in the NFL, his offensive coordinator took over playing calling with a ‘hold my beer…’ effort to prove that he was the worst. Mission accomplished. Also, note…Matt Nagy hired this guy, so technically Nagy is still the worst offensive mind in football for hiring the worst offensive mind in football, Bill Lazor.
This may be the game where Matt Nagy got everybody fully ‘turned’ on him now…and embarrassing display on cable television.
The funny irony would be if this was the coach who was hired to take Nagy’s place (he will be available): https://youtu.be/eldavQFLJD8?t=284
Minnesota didn’t play a great game or anything, they just got out of the way and let the Bears repeatedly faceplant and won the game. The best moment of the night was when the Vikings kicked-off to former Viking Cordarrelle Patterson and he ran it back for a TD and Mike Zimmer almost had a spontaneously combusted on his special team’s coach on the sidelines. The Bears’ lone TD was the CP KR TD return.
The Vikings are winners of three in a row, and right back into the playoff picture at (4-5). They really should be (5-4/6-3) but things happened. The schedule ahead could get them to 9 wins, but we see (8-8)…and that might be a final wild card, maybe. There is some hope in Minnesota now. Had the Jags beaten the Packers this week, which they should have, the Vikings could’ve been just two games out of 1st-place with 7 games to go.
The Bears have lost four in-a-row and have sunk to (5-5) and fading fast. They might get to 8 wins, but I’d say more likely 7 and then a big wondering if Nagy gets dumped after the season.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- At first, it looked like Nick Foles’s (15-26 for 106 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) season might be over but news is breaking that the injury may not be as bad as first thought, and there’s a BYE this week (11), so it’s possible Foles is back at the helm. Even if he is, this offense is swirling down the drain fast.
I’d love to see Mitch Trubisky come in to save the day, becoming a runner/thrower that starts making a difference (he’s is undefeated as a starter this season) – but Trubisky is hurt and doesn’t show the heart of great football player, so even if he got in it would be more of the same Nagy-nonsense.
I think there’s a case to be made that Trubisky has a lot of raw talent and it was totally uncoached, or anti-coached away into the terrible QB people perceive today. It will be interesting what team takes a shot on him next year – he’d be perfect for Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan to work on, but the best spot I think is for Sean McDermott to get him and make him a Josh Allen-lite and try to give Mitch a heart transplant. No greater QB miracle has occurred in my history of studying football than the improvement McDermott has been a part of with Josh Allen from 2018 to 2019 to 2020.
If Foles and Trubisky are out, then if you thought this offense looked bad before then wait until you see it led by Tyler Bray.
-- All this QB chaos means two things for me:
1) Allen Robinson (6-43-0/9) is going to have a hard time sustaining a WR1 status…between the offense/the QBs and the weather ahead – in redraft you need to plan for the worst here.
2) I’ll not speak of Darnell Mooney (2-3-0/2) again until Matt Nagy is gone, and I see who the replacement is. His talents are going to waste AND he’ll never get better with Nagy’s rule/staff.
-- Worse than the Bears’ QB situation is their RB situation…
Cordarrelle Patterson (12-30-0, 3-19-0/2) started and was of little impact. We all know CP is talented, so the fact that he can do nothing in this offense is not on him…which means there is no hope ahead.
Lamar Miller (0-0-0, 2-6-0/2) was in the game after Patterson…and was barely used.
When I saw Miller enter after Patterson, I ripped up and tossed my Ryan Nall (1-0-0, 1-18-0/2) lottery tickets. Here’s how stupid Matt Nagy is, as if you needed more evidence…down by a score late in a hurry up/all-pass offense, the former WR and huge playmaker Cordarrelle Patterson is not on the field but Ryan Nall is. Why? Wouldn’t a bubble screen or jet sweep to Patterson be in some kind of order given the playmaker he is…for an offense struggling mightily? Not for Nagy.
Oh, and for some reason the 3rd RB into the game was not Nall…it was Artavis Pierce (3-9-0). Congrats, Lazor-Nagy!!!
David Montgomery (DNP) may actually be a good RB, but it’s Nagy killing him. I have to at least consider that.
The Bears are like the Colts for me, for FF…I don’t want anything to do with any of them. Not the RBs (redraft 2020) or the WRs or the QBs or the TEs.
-- Nothing much to say about the Vikings here. They tried to run the ball a thousand times, per usual, but it was bottled up pretty well…so, when Kirk Cousins had to throw he dealt to Justin Jefferson (8-135-0/10) for another monster FF performance.
We’re used to Jefferson doing well, but we have to also consider here – this was a Bears pass defense that has been shutting down most things. However, Justin Jefferson rolled through/on to a great game. A sign that Jefferson isn’t just having a good targeting/touch count run of production…more that he is really, really good…bordering on great 10 weeks into his rookie season. It’s stunning how good the rookie WRs are of this era.
-- My guy, Eric Wilson had 7 total tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 TFLs, and a PD this game.
He’s now the #7 LB in IDP PPG on the season (FPros scoring).
Since Week 2, Wilson is #4 in IDP PPG…two tackles away from being #2 to leader/Bears LB Roquan Smith (14 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 3 TFLs).
-- Four losses in a row for the Bears, with their defense just not good enough to pull off wins. They are holding offenses down to ‘manageable’ but they’re not providing the fire/the FF scoring you want from your DST (but the CP KR TD return helped).
The Bears-DST is the #11 FF scoring PPG DST in fantasy this season…never bad, but never really great. A bye this week, and then the at Green Bay…not good, especially as this team starts swirling down the drain.
DET, HOU, at MIN, at JAX Weeks 13-16 look favorable but not awesome.
Snap Counts of Interest:
46 = Mooney
45 = ARob
24 = A Miller
25 = CPatt
17 = Nall
06 = A. Pierce
05 = L Miller
59 = Cook
05 = Mattison
57 = Rudolph
46 = Conklin
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Cardinals 32, Bills 30
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
What a game…what an ending.
What has become two of the best ‘good, but not going to win the Super Bowl’ teams in the NFL met here and a shocking Hail Mary ending gave the Cardinals a miracle victory. Buffalo led 23-9 mid-3rd-quarter, but Arizona pulled into the lead with three scores in a 9+ minute span…a 17-point run to take a 26-23 lead.
The teams battled, scoreless, all 4th-quarter until Buffalo drove down the field with what looked like a late-game winning TD, taking a 30-26 lead with 0:34 left, but because it’s 2020…Arizona got to midfield and then flung a Hail Mary pass which DeAndre Hopkins caught in the middle of four defenders for the shocking victory.
It was an entertaining game, to say the least. It was also a showcase of two of the best players in the game right now – Kyler Murray and Josh Allen. Buffalo seemed like the better team all along, but Arizona never folded…and pulled out a shocker. Both of these teams ‘arrived’ in this game. More so Arizona but Buffalo has nothing to be ashamed of here either. Well played game by two talented teams with a storybook finish.
Now, I’m a believer. I’m with Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello, who predicted this Arizona uprising in the summer (with me telling him it was too much to ask of Kliff Kingsbury)…I believe Arizona can win the NFC West. I’ll go one further…this game, this season really, but this game is the tipping point – now, I believe Arizona can win the NFC West, but also go to the Super Bowl. Not ready to say they will…just new believing they can.
Seattle was a mild fraud as the clear top team in the NFC, and now they are falling away with recent losses to the rest of the NFC West. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are very dangerous and clearly beatable. The Saints are good but seriously flawed and minus Drew Brees now. The Packers are clearly beatable, beneficiaries of an easy schedule/weak division pushing them along. I’m not saying Arizona WILL outrun them all, but I am saying I believe for the first time it is now possible they can – their defense continues to play well and Kyler is getting better and better. I could see Arizona winning the West and going to the NFC title game or I could see them stumbling from here and being a wild card and losing 1st-round – but going the distance is now a possibility in my mind.
If the Cardinals can beat Seattle on TNF this week…they have to be the favorites to win the NFC West. If they lose, they are back into a dogfight to the finish. I think they will lose Week 11 being AT Seattle (but hoping they win) but go on to finish (10-6) and be right in the mix with LAR and SEA for the NFC West title. The Week 11 ARI-SEA winner will have a big edge because Seattle has a very easy schedule ahead, and Arizona’s isn’t bad either (the Rams have a tougher road by comparison).
Buffalo falls to (7-3)…seconds away from being (8-2). The sweet AFC East cushion the Bills had just escaped via DeAndre Hopkins as Miami (6-3) now gets to one win behind the Bills in the division. We still project the Bills to win the AFC East without worrying about Week 17 v. Miami.
I’d bet the Bills to go further in the playoffs and more likely to win their division but just like this game – don’t count out Arizona. I no longer am. I think Arizona climbed (and it has been building for weeks) to a next level here (with more steps to go). They’ve gone from a good team that Kyler has to be accounted for, to more ‘expect them to win’ week-to-week. All credit to Kliff Kingsbury and Vance Joseph who I never thought could get this team into this position.
…if the Cardinals fall from here, I will lead the ‘see, I told you so’ brigade – but I don’t think I’ll be dusting that oldie but goodie for use ahead here.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I should talk about Kyler Murray first, but I’m going to talk Josh Allen (32-49 for 284 yards, 2 TDs/2 INT, 7-38-0, 1 TD catch) first…because that is where the FF opportunity lies.
Had the Hail Mary pass gone as they normally do…incomplete, and Buffalo had won the game – it would, or should, be the moment everyone in football celebrated and pushed Josh Allen as the NFL MVP alternative to Patrick Mahomes. Instead, crickets.
Lost in the Hail Mary, which is cool but a fluke play, was the fact that Josh Allen once again led a late game drive down to a good team, needing a score to tie/win and Allen put a laser beam throw in a perfect placement to Stefon Diggs with 0:34 left for what SHOULD have been the game winning score. You know what happened with Arizona’s last drive…which stole the spotlight from Allen.
I mean, watch this throw/play, Allen is doing this all the time in 2020…especially catch the slow-mo replay as the very short video runs: https://youtu.be/CpHp48MuMcs
Allen drifting in the pocket, flatfooted dart in the only place this pass could’ve been to succeed…and Allen has been doing this all season. He’s been the closest thing to Patrick Mahomes as there has been in the NFL, him and Justin Herbert but Allen a touch better.
Where’s the FF-opportunity in this?
Well, Kyler gets all the praise after this game. He’s getting the MVP talk, but Allen just scored about the same amount of points Kyler did in this game (in 6pts per pass TD)…and Allen is a top 5 fantasy QB, and he’d be competing with Kyler’s #1 YTD spot if not for the unseasonable crappy weather games Allen had to play a few weeks ago which brought his FF numbers down a tick. Kyler is the current king of fantasy QBs, but Allen is right up there…but if you tried to trade for them…Kyler is unobtainable, and Allen is very obtainable. Kyler would be valued as the #1 QB in fantasy, even ahead of Mahomes. Allen…may be priced as a top 10 QB type valuation because people think he’s similar to Carson Wentz/they disbelieve. People think, perhaps, he’s on a little Carson Wentz hot streak…but they ‘know’ it won’t last.
I’m just noting…Allen’s greatness is hidden once again…you can get a deal again this week – not that he’s being given away, but people (by and large) still do not believe. I know most of you have Mahomes and/or Kyler, and/or Herbert and/or traded for Allen already off my last five+ weeks of howling about it…but I’m here again to say, there is still a window, because people still do not believe, and Kyler stole the fresh belief that could’ve started here.
The one pause for going too nuts chasing Allen for the rest of 2020, while he’s on a bye – Weeks 12-16 could all be cold, crappy weather events…or just ‘not ideal’ events. The thing that can cap a QB’s upside is frigid weather…and that’s Buffalo in December, but the Bills play at home only once in December…the problem is at DEN and at NE Weeks 15-16 can be just as bad. How it gets overcome some -- is Allen is the Bills best power runner as well.
-- I discussed Allen first, because of the FF-value and continuing the different thought process I’ve had on him. That’s not to take away from Kyler. The Kyler Murray (22-32 for 245 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 11-61-2) report, this week, is growing quite simple…
Kyler is now the king of fantasy QBs.
He might wind up being a higher scoring QB than Lamar Jackson was last year.
Who is laughing now, those of you who moved heaven and earth or used the touch of a finger to select Kyler Murray WAYYY ahead of where you were supposed to in Dynasty Rookie Drafts last year? You still want Josh Jacobs instead?
You know, I’m early mapping out the start of the 2021 College Football Metrics season (can you believe January is coming soon?) and wondering how to price it, what it’s going to look like – and it made me think, the Kyler Murray push we had in 2019…paid for your that subscription and then some, right now. Chase Claypool is paying for some of the 2020 costs.
I put a lot of work into College Football Metrics scouting of players, it is the lifeblood of Dynasty Rookie Draft strategy and the foundation for valuing these players for the NFL seasons for Fantasy and Handicapping, etc. My CFM season is like two full time jobs in one week for all time scouting tape and researching backgrounds/numbers and writing lengthy reports. Your support of CFM -- keeps it and me alive during the ‘offseason’ (there is no offseason in football). This past year with COVID and the unique college season with all the opt-outs…it’s going to be the most challenging scouting season ever. I really need and value your support of CFM. I try to make it more than worth your time and support. You’ll never know, and I’ll never be able to express, just how much your support of CFM means to keeping the FFM train rolling up the uphill tracks…not to mention support of FFM for the actual seasons as they come about.
Your CFM support…it helped us produce a Kyler Murray bumper crop. It wasn’t enough to say ‘I think he’s good’, although it was a split decision on football people for/against him at the time. Just claiming he was ‘good’ wasn’t good enough -- you had to explore, consider just how good and thus how Dynasty-valuable he was. No one valued him like we did. Those that have him in Dynasty because of it – enjoy the fruits of your support and your personal action/decision to go get him. It wasn’t easy to get to him for many, and mocking from league mates occurred for as high as we chased him.
But who’s laughing now?
Every win, every moment like this – it only strengthens Kyler’s Dynasty value because he HAS to have Kliff Kingsbury giving him the LONG leash to do whatever he wants.
However, just to bring us down a notch, note that Lamar Jackson was the cat’s pajamas this time last year…and now look at him. We can never let our guard down.
The difference is…Kyler is actually a good QB/passer and Lamar is not really.
Just to put a bow on it all – I need your support of CFM more than ever in 2021. COVID kicked CFM’s butt when it hit in March-April and we all weren’t sure if the world may have been ending. Your support keeps me safely on the mission fields researching more players than ever in a year where many top guys skipped the college season. We’re going to have to look under every rock for James Robinson’s.
-- The greatness of Josh Allen is rendering the Buffalo Bills backfield totally useless for FF. You know how Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell have never predictably/consistently mattered for KC? Same for Buffalo. Sean McDermott has created a superhero in Josh Allen, and he is putting it all on him.
Devin Singletary (4-15-0, 1-0-0/5) is an RB4/done. He’ll have a few 3-4-5 catch games a season, but little else for FF otherwise.
Zack Moss (7-20-0, 1-0-0/2) is going to be the lead guy, in a sense, because he’s going to be a short yardage specialist.
The Panthers and Saints and Raiders (to name a few) build the offense around a running back. Buffalo, KC, Baltimore, Rams, the Patriots…the running backs are necessary evils you do by committee.
I never thought Josh Allen would get good…or great…or elite, so I believed the Bills would run with Singletary and play good defense. Instead, they are the Chiefs Northeast. My preseason desire for Singletary has blown up in my face. I don’t believe Singletary failed…he looks fine…but the Buffalo offense has shifted because it should.
I say this as a cautionary tale for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, J.K. Dobbins, and Damien Harris – all super talented, but now I’m wondering if they are always going to be talented backup singers to a spotlight stealing lead singer (the QB). That they’ll never fulfill what their talent says it should? The NFL is changing so fast it’s hard to keep up with.
I know this – I’m done with heavy running back valuation for fantasy. Never again. We’ll explore all the logic in the offseason, but the NFL is about to shift even further away from ONE back.
I’m certain of this for 2021, so that means there will be another radical shift out of nowhere and thus no forward passes in 2021 just wishbone run games while I have 17 WRs on my roster.
-- The rise of Kyler as the center of the universe will put pressure on the Cardinals RBs too, and it already has.
Kenyan Drake (16-100-0, 1-9-0/1) rushed for a hundred yards…YIPPIE, that’s so awesome. Except it isn’t because who cares about 11.9 PPR/10.9 non-PPR fantasy points in a week? If the running back gets some work between the 20s, and Kyler does all the TD stuff mostly minus the lead carry RB…then who cares about 100 yard rushing games? Damien Harris rushes for 100+ yards like every week, and J.D. McKissic outscores him, in PPR, every week.
Chase Edmonds (8-56-0, 3-21-0/3) didn’t rush for 100+ yards but scored about the same as Drake because of his pass game work.
The 100-yard rusher with no TD/no pass game guy is DEAD in fantasy.
How many workhorses are left (and not injured) in the NFL that really matter/are effective for FF? Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry…and…and…??
Piss on Joe Mixon and Miles Sanders and others like them. Next year, I’ll be happy with a loaded QB -WR-TE depth chart and a bunch of PPR RBs, and I’ll adjust as we go in-season off waivers to whatever hot RB pops up. Fantasy waivers have been a playground of RBs to use this year.
Why did I sweat over a Jacobs v. Chubb v. Drake v. Mixon v. Sanders late 1st-round pick decision…when I coulda just taken Wayne Gallman and J.D. McKissic?
-- Christian Kirk (4-27-0/6) has a good matchup here, but he fell back to earth. Kirk was hot the last three weeks, but the recent trending was more like this game…3-4-5 catches, 6-7-8 targets, insignificant targets mostly (less than 40 yards two of last 3 games)…but prior games he got open for a few TDs and all seemed FF-great, but then this dud.
Kirk has value as the #2 WR here, but he’s going to have weeks like this…and you just have to roll with it, not always guessing and always a week behind/wrong. Kyler takes most of the goodness on the ground not through the air, unless it’s DeAndre Hopkins.
Buffalo has the better passing game for all WRs, that’s why I’ve been chasing John Brown (6-72-0/8) like a lunatic and if he’s out this week I want Cole Beasley (11-109-1/13). Brown was on his way to another nice FF game, but he got banged up and Beasley rose up in-game.
Josh Allen makes all things great at WR…and suffocates to death the TE and RBs.
Kyler Murray makes himself great, and usually DeAndre Hopkins…and then everything else is random hopefuls, unpredictably, each week.
-- But what about these two defenses? No one cares, right?
Consider the fact that this game was two high functioning offenses/QBs and it was 26-23 with 30+ seconds left. I thought the defenses were pretty great here considering who they were facing and how they shut each other down in the 4th-quarter. Allen had to throw a pass only few humans could in order to take the lead late, and then Kyler boosted his numbers with a fluke Hail Mary. Outside of that, this was a well-played game by both defenses – defenses we should respect on good matchups.
Buffalo-DST will be useful/good Week 13 at SF and Weeks 15-16 at DEN, at NE. Three good spots in 4 games Week’s 13-16. Also, all those games could be cold, bad weather to help.
Arizona-DST is a better unit than Buffalo, to me, at this stage…more talented but not as well coached (because McDermott is maybe the best coach in the league) and no weather aid to help the DST. Weeks 13-16, Arizona is home three games in December.
I like the Cards-DST Week 12 at NE, Week 14 at NYG, Week’s 15-16 at home v. PHI-SF (but in safe dome conditions for offense allowance). From Week 12-16, you got four useful opportunities. Just Week 13 v. the Rams is not as favorable.
Snap Counts of Interest:
38 = Drake
26 = Edmonds
39 = Maxx Williams
35 = Arnold
14 = DDaniels
39 = Moss
34 = Singletary
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Colts 34, Titans 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I cannot believe the Colts won this game…after watching how it started.
I cannot believe the Colts are going to walk away with the AFC South title, but now I’m convinced they are.
The Titans looked like the superior team from the jump…a quick 7-0 lead for the Titans. A 17-13 lead for Tennessee at the half. Then it all started falling apart…shanked punts, blocked punts, missed FGs – the Titans did this to themselves. Mike Vrabel is sinking his 2020 season like Frank Reich did last year by sticking with his failing ex-Patriots kicker too long (last year it was Adam Vinatieri). Tennessee had the better offense and defense for the first half+ of this game, but then special teams melted and it bled into the other aspects…and the blowout was on, but it shouldn't have been.
Late 3rd-quarter, leading 17-13, Tennessee punted from deep in their own territory…a 17-yard shanked punt set up a quick Indy TD and a first time in the game Colts lead 20-17. Next series, the Titans got a punt blocked and returned for a TD…27-17 Indy. Tennessee drove down and set up for a field goal to close it to a one score game and Steven Gostkowski missed it…making him three of his last 8 FG attempts over the last six games.
Tennessee falls to (6-3) and into a tie for the AFC South, of which they just lost the tiebreaker to the Colts here. The Titans might lose at BAL, at IND the next two weeks and their season starts to get flushed down the drain. Beneficiaries of lucky/close wins early in the season – and that luck is starting to turn against them now. We project Tennessee to (9-7) now, which should be good enough to sneak into the playoffs again.
The Colts are technically in first place in the AFC South (6-3), but they do not look that great – just a beneficiary of a weak schedule so far…and then they had this game given to them by Tennessee’s miscues. We see Indy finishing with 9 wins as well but winning the AFC South with that identical record with Tennessee, but owning the tiebreaker over them. The Colts have a better chance to get to 10 wins than the Titans do, right now.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- This Colts backfield, oy vey…
Jonathan Taylor (7-12-0, 2-25-0/2) is a near-death experience now for FF…debatable on -- do drop or hold this week?
Two things on Taylor…
1) He’s the kind of back you feed 15-20+ times and pound away on opponents with. He needs a steady flow of touches, like the guy across the field from him gets. Taylor in 2020 gets treated like if the Dallas Cowboys drafted Ezekiel Elliott and then put him in a three-way RBBC. Like he’d come into the game and get a carry and then instantly run off the field, then back in 3 plays later, then out again, and back-and-forth all game long…never getting into any rhythm. You’d be confused and/or livid watching Derrick Henry or Zeke Elliott or Josh Jacobs, etc., get that treatment.
But Taylor wasn’t a 1st-round pick, so he doesn’t really matter, no one really cares. The way he should be used…he’s getting used the exact opposite. He logs three games worth of energy in one game…there’s the one game he plays on the field, then there’s the two games worth of time he’s sprinting off the field/out of the rotation and then sprinting back on…and back and forth wasting his legs all game.
The way Frank Reich is using him…near useless for Taylor or FF.
2) Current owners of Taylor in Dynasty have to be disgusted. We wasted a top draft pick on this? If you believe in Taylor for the future, not the now, and you didn’t get a chance to rookie draft…the price to acquire him is radically reduced.
A lesson, once again…these Dynasty Rookie Drafts are WAY overvalued. Everyone gives a kidney to get a high draft pick or cries when they don’t have a hot top rookie pick to make…and then these coveted rookies, halfway into their rookie season, we end up hating or are disappointed with most all of them…they cannot live up to our hype so they seem terrible (if you’re the highly vested owner).
Then they pop a year later, and non-owners of a hot rookie missed a window to acquire in their disappointing rookie season because they got scared off/lost the rookie hype on them too.
If you believe in Taylor, now is the time to shop for a bargain…not pay any price to do it -- but make someone bleed, get a deal.
Nyheim Hines (12-70-1, 5-45-1/6) will be the top waiver RB of the week, I can feel it. We all just saw him play well on cable television, so now ‘it’s real’.
May I caution you…Reich is going RBBC every week; you can’t bank on anything with the Colts backfield for FF. The game prior to this, Hines barely touched the ball and Jordan Wilkins (8-28-0, 0-0-0/1) was what everyone wanted. Now, it’s Hines…which will be wrong next week because Taylor will probably spike up and then everyone will believe in him, and then he’ll fail in a follow up…and round and round she goes.
Don’t get into this RBBC hell if you don’t have to.
-- I don’t want any Colts offensive players, but if I had to…I guess Michael Pittman (7-101-0/8) just got my attention. I LOVE Pittman, but I didn’t think he was going to bump up to the #1 guy so fast. Parris Campbell is out. T.Y. Hilton died and went to WR heaven weeks ago. And Marcus Johnson (0-0-0/1), who I thought was the top guy for Rivers…he was benched.
Pittman is the guy, but I don’t want to have anything tied to Philip Rivers. Next week Jaire Alexander will go on Pittman, and everyone will jump off him. The schedule ahead, except Week 12 rematch with TENN looks bad for the Indy #1 WR, assuming it is Pittman now.
-- Maybe I don’t want the Titans #1 WR either?
What the hell was that A.J. Brown (1-21-0/4)? A terrible title for a kid’s Christmas Cartoon and a terrible fantasy football egg at this juncture.
He actually caught his lone pass on the 2nd play of the game…and then a big fat zero the rest of the way. It was so bad, Jonathan Taylor outscored him in PPR and Standard.
What happened?
No clue, but it’s a bit distressing…but I think it’s more Xavier Rhodes (3 tackles, 1 PD) really is back in shutdown mode.
I guess, it’s not a bad time to inquire about AJB in a trade? Maybe the current owner is furious? Mostly, people seem to be of the mindset this bad week was just a blip. However, just note…two out of AJB’s last 3 games, he’s been under 25 yards receiving. He’s making one big play most weeks to save his FF scoring…but his real on-field work has been erratic, and teams are putting more coverage on him and he’s not a good enough receiver, nor is this passing game so high powered, to bust through that.
BAL and IND the next two weeks, he may get shut down two more times. Actually, I’ll take a rain check on that ‘buy low’ statement. I’ll pass for the rest of 2020.
-- Speaking of things starting to fade off a little bit…Ryan Tannehill (15-27 for 147 yards, 1 TD/0 INT).
Tanny has been under 240 yards passing in five of his last 6 games…and under 240 yards in four-straight, and he’s been under 200 yards passing back-to-back weeks. When the Titans face a tough pass defense, the results are ‘low’ volume. And he’s facing BAL-IND the next two weeks. Not good.
The schedule is more favorable Week 13 on.
-- Jonnu Smith (2-14-0/6, 1-1-1) is not helping the Tennessee pass game cause…or the pass game is not helping Jonnu, one or the other.
Had Jonnu not gotten that jet sweep TD run…it would have been FIVE fantasy duds in a row. The past five games, Jonnu has 1-1-2-2-2 for catches in games and less than 35 yards in all five games. Had he not run for that TD here, you’d be dropping him in regular redraft this week.
Smith got decent target volume in this game, finally, but he was rarely/never open. Indy is stout vs. the TE. Jonnu has BAL-IND the next two weeks, which is not great either.
-- Rodrigo Blankenship (2/2 FGs, 4/4 XPs) has a sweet next five games of ‘conditions’ to kick in…
Week 11 = home/dome
Week 12 = home/dome
Week 13 = at HOU/dome
Week 14 = at LV/dome
Week 15 = home/dome
Then a bad Week 16…at Pittsburgh.
-- I know the Titans’ DST schedule looks decent ahead, kinda-sorta…but I am joining the ‘this Titans defense sucks’ crowd. Even though there is hope with the Desmond King trade and Adoree Jackson should be back Week 11. Two problems…
Jadeveon Clowney (4 tackles, 1 TFL) is an overrated waste of space…he plays at 50% effort most of the time and has a moment here and there. He’s not a menace, he’s actually a liability.
Even worse than Clowney, and I did not pick up on it until this re-watch, but I saw something live watch that I made note of…then watched for it on the re-watch and saw it, I think.
The ‘it’ is that SAF Kenny Vaccaro (8 tackles) is mailing it in. He’s playing like Mark Barron did for the Steelers last year -- a little delayed/late to the draw, on purpose, on things to stay out of the fray. Giving up early (half speed running) or not even trying to chase after plays gone past him. Purposefully trying to get caught up into coverage so he doesn’t ‘notice’ a ballcarrier running nearby, so he doesn’t have to really pursue or is way behind the play. When he is near a play, he tackles like he’s gently putting a baby to sleep…a lot of arm tackling or grab and hold to fall to the ground with them – no real full speed blasts.
Now, I know why the Titans defense is dying…they have at least two players on the field 70%+ of the snaps who could care less/aren’t making extra effort.
-- IND SAF Khari Willis (8 tackles) is on fire lately…
3.4 total tackles per game per game his first 5 games, 8.5 total tackles per game his last 4 games. Nothing I see has changed, and he’s started every game this season…just tackling a lot lately. He doesn’t stand out on tape one way or the other, but the numbers are nice of late.
Snap Counts of Interest…
38 = D Henry
17 = McNichols
09 = Foreman
57 = Pittman
47 = Pascal
47 = Hilton
18 = Marcus Johnson
39 = Hines
17 = Taylor
14 = Wilkins
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Falcons 34, Broncos 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This wasn’t as close as the one score game it ended up. The Falcons punished the Broncos. It was 20-3 ATL at the half. 27-6 after three quarters. 34-13 with 9+ minutes left. The Broncos scored some garbage in the hurry up to make it closer than it was. The Broncos were missing two starting corners, which crippled them and Atlanta took advantage.
Denver had to win this game…and they failed miserably. A win would have put the Broncos (4-4) and kept wild card talk alive for weeks. Now, they’re pretty much done. They were anyway, but at least hope is fun for a while into the season. All hope is about gone in Denver.
Atlanta should be winners of their last four games, but they have won three of the four to crawl back into a long shot playoff discussion. They have played good+ ball under interim HC Raheem Morris. Their season comes down to Weeks 11-13.
Let’s play pretend…
Assuming the Saints win this week (over SF), they’ll be (7-2) and the Falcons are currently (3-6) and on a BYE. Atlanta plays NO twice (Weeks 11 and 13) ahead, and let’s say they sweep the Saints, as well as beat the Raiders in-between, let’s be far-fetched, then Atlanta would get to (6-6) with the Saints at (7-5) or (8-4) and the Falcons owning a tiebreaker over the Saints. Suddenly, the Falcons would be in the wild card and still in the divisional race.
It’s all too much of a long shot, but the table is set…if Brees gets hurt or whatever gives them some long shot hope – the Falcons at least have a path of dominos to knock down to get into the expanded playoff hunt. I think their schedule is the hardest of any NFL team Week 11 on, so we project Atlanta to win 5-6 games tops.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Re-watching this game…I just can’t.
I can’t stand Drew Lock (25-48 for 313 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 7-47-1). I can’t use him in good conscious for FF this week. He’s so bad.
Sure, he had some numbers here…but it was garbage-time, which I’ll take, but he’s so bad I don’t know if you can be assured of good garbage-time with him. He’s so inaccurate and so just forcing things where there is no reason to force too. The Broncos are going nowhere with him, nor our fantasy teams…but this week with so many QBs in question or on bye, you may have to walk this lonely road.
-- Tim Patrick (4-29-1/9) is Lock’s best WR weapon, but look at the numbers – it’s indicative of their problem all year…just forced, low probability connection throws you hope Patrick makes a great play/catch on. Patrick is a flyer Flex option this week. And then the schedule is ugly the next three weeks/ROS and you will never use him.
Jerry Jeudy (7-125-1/14) had his best game…still just a 50% connection rate this game, against one of the worst secondaries of the 2020 season. It can work against bad coverage, but the schedule isn’t kind ahead.
K.J. Hamler (6-75-0/10) has a little window to maybe produce as a Flex flyer in all this…with attention to the outside WRs, Lock can play some pitch and catch in deficits/garbage time ahead. This week v. LV and Lamarcus Joyner is a great opportunity for Hamler to be the best Broncos FF WR option.
I’d love to play Noah Fant (3-34-0/3) with extreme confidence, but he is not 100%. He had a sweet catch and run 30+ yard play right off the bat but got hit low and limped off right away. He played the rest of the way but was more window dressing than weapon…I think because he’s lost his wheels some due to the injuries, for the moment. He’s not fully 100%. Still, if you don’t have Kelce-Waller…what better option do you have than the talented Fant?
-- The Broncos’ RBs did nothing in this game, but you have to note the Falcons are the #7 run defense (by yards per game allowed) in 2020. They’re pretty strong against the run, and it helps that teams just throw all over them as the alternative.
It will be interesting to see if they hold Alvin Kamara down in Weeks 11 and 13…or whether the Falcons just get exposed by the AK experience. Atlanta has held down RBs more than not…but more on the rushing side, not the pass game side.
-- You hate Todd Gurley (19-53-1, 2-2-0/2), I hate Todd Gurley…he’s boring and not anything like he used to be. However, we need to respect him. In this era where every RB sucks/is in some kind of weird RBBC/hot hand or hurt…Gurley has played every game and is the #12 RB in PPR PPG (5 or more games played) this season. An RB1.
Gurley is ALWAYS the lead and is always finding the end zone with his boring rushing totals. That’s better than boring rushing totals and no TDs like most all other RBs.
Only Dalvin Cook (12) has more rushing TDs this season than Gurley (9).
-- With Calvin Ridley out, Olamide Zaccheaus (4-103-1/6) had maybe his best game of his career…not ‘maybe’, he did.
He had a one-handed catch for a big 1st-down conversion early. Soon after, a bomb 51-yard TD, a little later almost another 50+ yard TD but he got tripped up by his shoestrings for just a 40+ yard gain.
It was his best game as a pro, but actually we could say it was his best half ever. All his damage came in the 1st-half, then Matt Ryan inexplicably went to sleep on it. Zaccheaus gives the Falcons more firepower but Matt Ryan is constantly looking for Julio or Calvin and everyone else is a random event.
-- Matt Ryan is looking more for Hayden Hurst (7-62-1/6), as we’ve been noting for several weeks.
On the season, Hurst is now the #7 PPR PPG TE scorer in fantasy.
Since Week 6, Hurst is #4 in PPR PPG among TEs…just behind George Kittle (who is now gone)…and Just ahead of Gronk and Waller.
-- Foye Oluokun (10 tackles, 1.0 sack, 1 TFL,1 PD) is always doing something to get our IDP attention. Not only 10 tackles here, but 4 QB hits…his first 4 of the year, as Morris unleashed him that way this game. A new wrinkle…which led to his first sack of the season.
Since Week 2, Oluokun is the #8 DB in PPG among LBs this season.
The Falcons-DST has really been solid under Raheem Morris, but you cannot use them for FF at all the ROS…they face a murder’s row of QBs/offenses the rest of the way: Brees, Carr, Brees, Herbert, Brady, Mahomes, Brady.
Snap Counts of Interest:
44 = Gurley
19 = Br Hill
63 = Julio
52 = Zaccheaus
44 = Gordon
28 = Lindsay
57 = Fant
15 = Albert O. (ACL/done)
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Raiders 31, Chargers 26
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Another game where the Chargers lead early (17-14 at the half) and then find a way to lose in the end. This time a muffed punt with 8+ minutes left to go set them back from the momentum they had just stolen, but they still had three shots at a game-winning TD in the final 0:07, and the receivers had their hands on the ball/the scores but just couldn’t come down with the legal catch multiple times.
Thank you, God, for Anthony Lynn…a team with a top 5 QB in the NFL is always winning big early and then ends up losing – my over/under win total ‘under’ 7.5 wins is getting closer to locking in. LAC is now (2-6), where they should/could be at least (7-1). I love this losing for fantasy/dynasty purposes as well – I’ll not only win my ‘under’ bet but with each loss we move closer to Anthony Lynn fired…and then for LAC to hire a coach that will aid Justin Herbert (Joe Brady, perhaps?) into the future.
Also, props to the Lord for my Raiders make the playoff proclamations in the preseason – they are now (5-3) and have a very good chance at 10 wins and a nice wild card berth.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- What about this Chargers’ backfield?
Justin Jackson was in on the first play, Justin Herbert faked it to him on a read option and took off with it…but JJax still got lit up by a tackler who thought JJ had the ball – the hit took him out of the game (I think he did return for a snap or two but basically was gone) and you got a one snap/play and out, zero FF points effort from Jackson (sounds like an FFM guy for sure!).
Josh Kelley (9-28-0, 5-31-0/5) entered the game immediately and the 1st-series ended with a quick punt.
2nd-Series for LAC, we saw rookie WR Joe Reed (2-7-0, 0-0-0/1) take a jet sweep (their version of Deebo, is Reed). Then, out of nowhere (who I forgot he was even with the team), emerged Kalen Ballage (15-69-1, 2-15-0/3) for a touch…then another…then another…then another. Joe Reed took another running play from WR spot, and the drive ended with a missed FG.
From that point on it was Kalen Ballage like he’d been the Chargers lead back for years, looking as athletic as I’ve seen him look, and he led the way with Kelley playing 50/50 snaps but not touching the ball – whereas Ballage got most of the RB work/touches.
Justin Jackson is likely out for Week 10.
Josh Kelley is in the doghouse…he was ditched for Ballage in a hot second in this game. He might be a 3-7 touches option Week 10.
Troymaine Pope will be back this week and can be the 3rd-down/hurry up offense back, an Austin Ekeler option.
But I think Ballage is going to lead the backfield this week, and next. Why? The Kalen Ballage revenge tour…
Week 10 vs. MIA…the team that started him in 2019 and then tried to trade him but then had to cut him in 2020.
Week 11 vs. NYJ…the team that tried to trade for him, but he failed a physical, then they added him to the roster and used him for a bit but then waived him as well.
Why not? It’s 2020…why not Ballage as a great fantasy option for no reason…just at the time his team is playing the teams that dissed him.
-- You’d think there would be nothing to talk about RB-wise on the other side of this game. Vegas is Josh Jacobs (14-65-1, 1-3-0/1) territory!!
Ummm…except for the part of the story where Devontae Booker (8-68-1) keeps getting a few more carries each week, playing a few more snaps, and looks more explosive than Jacobs.
Booker took a season-high 8 carries for a season-high 68 yards and a sweet 20+ yard TD run in this game – getting good work in a game that was back-and-forth, this wasn’t garbage time. Booker is only averaging 6.8 yards per carry…the best rate of any RB in the NFL with 30 or more carries this season to date.
There’s no way the Raiders have the guts to start working a split here. They’re too vested into Josh Jacobs and wouldn’t want to hurt his ego – that’s the thing when you stupidly marry yourself to one workhorse back…now, you’re stuck. Now they’ll not give more touches to something really working hot (like Booker), to see if it is real and can be better (and maybe it wouldn’t if defenses played Booker like they play Jacobs), all because they don’t want to hurt Jacobs’ feelings. And some of it because they don’t want to reveal that it might have been a bad business decision to waste a 1st-round pick on an average-good RB…a top-pick RB being outplayed by someone they picked up off the streets earlier this year.
That aside, we’ll see where this is going. Like I said months ago, Booker is the Jacobs handcuff…and if JJ ever got hurt right now, Booker’s stock would skyrocket.
Let’s see how many touches Booker gets Week 10…if he gets 10+ in a real game, not garbage time or because of a Jacobs injury, then Gruden does have some guts.
The best man wins the job is what they say in the NFL every training camp – but only true if it’s not a low-profile guy working better than a high-profile skill position guy. That type of news we have to hide from the public (fake news). We’ll see which way Gruden takes this in Week 10.
-- Just a quick note, Justin Herbert (28-42 for 326 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 5-24-0) is still awesome. And an additional note, he should have had a 3rd and 4th TD pass in this game if any of his non-Keenan’s could hold onto the passes that he laid on their hands in the end zone multiple times in-game.
Since Week 4, Herbert is the #2 FF QB in PPG scoring in fantasy (Kyler #1).
-- Mike Williams (5-81-0/7) was one of the guys who couldn’t hold onto a TD pass in the end zone this game. Williams had for a moment and then lost the game winner on the second-to-last throw by Herbert. He also had his hands on another end zone shot earlier in the game, but it was about an inch too far and MW couldn’t reel it in.
I will say this – I’ve never seen Williams so active, looking so spry on the field. They are starting to move him around and not just send him deep every play. And given he’s working with the golden prospect in Herbert – the fantasy numbers are starting to get consistent.
You want the #2 WR on the team with the #2 best passer in the NFL.
Imagine when Herbert gets more experienced in the league…
-- Nelson Agholor (2-55-1/3) DID hold onto his end zone shot this game. Four TDs in his last 5 games. He is the Raiders’ #1 WR…but sadly that has meant 4-2-9-2-3 for targets since he became a starter/new #1 the past 5 games. He’s producing in the limited targets, but that’s hard to sustain for FF with such low targeting.
With such a non-interest in the WRs in general by this offense…and if Agholor is the new #1 WR…then rookies Ruggs-Edwards are all but about useless ahead. Ruggs had no catches on 3 targets in this game.
Edwards seems to be headed for a massive rise (preseason) and now a massive fall from grace in fantasy. I was his #1 fan, but I’m getting rid of him where I need to/can’t wait around. I still think he’s a talent, but I don’t want to waste time with a random WR in this offense. Hopefully, 2021 has a new QB and outlook for Edwards -- but Gruden will still be there I’m guessing?
-- From my Three Things/Five Player Report the last few weeks…
About Daniel Carlson (1/1 FG, 4/4 XP):
One of the top kickers in FF in 2020. Dropped by many, including me (but picked back up by many Week 9), for fear of the wind gusts in Cleveland Week 8…but he ended up making 3 FGs anyway. Here’s the thing…the schedule ahead is awesome for a kicker in the winter…
Week 10 = home/dome v. DEN
Week 11 = home/dome v. KC
Week 12 = at ATL/dome
Week 13 = at NYJ…unfavorable, outdoors, cold.
Week 14 = home/dome v. IND
Week 15 = home/dome v. LAC
Week 16 = home/dome v. MIA
Week 17 = at DEN altitude.
Six dome events in his next 8 games. One of the two not in a dome is in California.
-- I’m ready to quit the LAC-DST…they look amazing the first half of games and then terrible the second half. They are also dying/missing Joey Bosa and Chris Harris. When they come back, I’ll pay attention more.
I want to quit LAC-DST, but Week 11 v. NYJ could keep me around. I think Week 10 at MIA could be nice too, I just wish Bosa and Harris would get back, but that may not be until Week 11.
Snap Counts of Interest:
43 = Kelley
31 = Ballage
03 = JJackson
28 = Jacobs
13 = Booker
09 = Richard
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Giants 23, Redskins 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I had forgotten the Giants led this game 20-3 at halftime. The Giants ‘stormed’ out of the gates and Kyle Allen got hurt early and it seemed like NYG was going to run away with things. Then Alex Smith led a comeback despite throwing 3 interceptions and with 10+ minutes left it was 23-20 NYG.
The two teams battled with good defense and general offensive ineptitude for the final 10 minutes with neither team scoring and NYG holding on (or given the game by Smith) for a ‘huge’ win to draw them into the NFC East title hunt with a massive game Week 10 vs. Philly.
The Giants are (2-7) and sit one win/3 losses behind the Eagles (3-4-1). If NYG can beat Philly Week 10, they’d close the gap to one win away from jumping past Philly into 1st-place. If the Giants lose this week, they are done. If NYG can win Week 10, I see a path to (6-10) and that could beat out Philly for the NFC East title. The Eagles have a tough schedule ahead.
Washington is actually still in this race too, but they need NYG to beat the Eagles Week 10 and then for NYG to fall apart from there…as the Giants hold a tiebreaker over Washington with this second head-to-head win over them. Washington has a path to 6 wins as well.
None of the NFC East teams are good, and Philly is in the best position, but any one of the four teams can still win it.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Alex Smith (24-32 for 325 yards, 1 TD/3 INT) looked shaky, but then had moments of the old/solid Smith...he threw for 300+ years here, so that’s impressive…but also had 3 picks, and nearly/should’ve been 4-5 picks, and that’s not like him. What do we make of this?
I think Smith is still a bit ‘off’ from all of his time away, and he’s looked more jumpy than not in his two appearances this season -- but there were signs of his old self starting to show through as this game wore on. Maybe he just needs another week or two to get back into a groove. And him in the groove isn’t anything special for FF, but it’s better than Haskins-Allen and it does help all the surrounding weapons.
Still, my vision/memory of Smith this season of play is a guy skittish and just throwing passes to avoid contact and making mistakes doing it. Smith used to not go a season and throw 3 picks…he had 3 this game and was lucky to not have 4-5-6 of them.
Weapons report for Washington:
1) Terry McLaurin (7-115-1/8) caught an ill-advised Smith pass throw into coverage that caused two defenders to knock into each other and McLaurin slipped out of the chaos off the medium throw/catch to race away for a 68-yard TD. The pass should’ve never been thrown. It should’ve been picked. It should’ve been a 10-yard pass at best…but it became a huge play that juiced all the numbers.
McLaurin was fine before Smith and is fine with Smith.
2) J.D. McKissic (9-65-0/14) is a huge winner…14 targets!! Smith LOVES dumping passes to the running back and that’s what McKissic was built for.
Just note, in this game…McKissic was in-line for a 10th catch but tripped on his route and fell as the pass was heading his way. An easy 1.5 points lost. Also, one of his catches was a catch-and-run tightrope breakaway run down the sidelines for a TD but it got called back for stepping out of bounds, but on the replay it looked fine/too close to call…but it went against him. 8 more points lost by a hair. He nearly had a 20+ PPR event here.
Given the state of FF RBs, McKissic could be a PPR RB1 going forward with Dump Pass Master Jay, Alex Smith (who has thrown 35% of his 2020 passes to McKissic). I feel like I’ve written about McKissic’s hidden value since August (big discussion on the Podfather’s podcast) – and now finally the national analysts are talking about it.
McKissic is 4th in catches by an RB (34) this season and is likely to finish 2nd to Alvin Kamara by season’s end. Since Week 4, he’s averaged 6.0 catches per game.
3) Cam Sims (3-110-0/4)…I take back my Monday dismissal of him. He was a near ‘wow’ player in this game.
Sims has bounced around Washington’s practice squad for years. Never making it to the big club but for a couple cups of coffee, and then he’ll have a play that gets people excited and then he doesn’t follow it up with anything. He’s been a preseason star but not an NFL one. Unreliable hands.
However, he’s 6’4/220+…he looks like a tight end playing WR. He’s a physical presence. But I saw in this game an extra bounce in his step I had not seen prior. His work after the catch was inspiring for his size. He was pulling away from people and cutting/juking away from them.
Honestly, I was stunned watching this. He looked fantastic. He looked like Mike Williams (LAC), if Mike Williams had better foot speed.
Sims made all his catches and some tougher ones. No gaffes that have haunted him prior.
I don’t know where we go from here, but he looks like someone that is ready to be the #2 here…and with McLaurin getting all the attention in coverage…Sims can pop like he did here. Sims started this game, so Ron Rivera must have some faith/hope.
The most impressive WR that I saw the past two weeks, on the ‘out of nowhere’/low on the radar type of WRs…not DeMichael Harris (IND) or Denzel Mims or Marvin Hall, etc., it was Cam Sims this game. Of the battle of Steve Sims vs. Cam Sims…now, the Sims I want is Cam Sims.
Welcome to 2020.
Where we go from here is a mystery -- this could've been a little blip that doesn't have any follow through, or this Week 9 was the beginning of something WR3-nice with upside. Sims has never been projected as a consistent thing, so Week 10 will be a fresh clue how this might go. I think Washington may be onto something...but this passing game is not great.
-- I take back my Monday dismissal of Cam Sims, but I reserve the right to reapply it next week…but, honestly, I am intrigued by what I saw with Cam Sims/2020. However, I’m not taking back my Austin Mack (4-72-0/5) dismissal.
Mack is OK…but being OK behind Shephard-Engram-Slayton working with Daniel Jones will get you nowhere fast in fantasy. He started because Golden Tate was benched. Tate comes back and Mack goes back to #4 WR status.
No, thanks.
-- You hated on Evan Engram (5-48-1/10) early in the season but guess what? He’s now a TE1 in PPR PPG YTD (#12 in PPR PPG among TEs with 5+ games played).
Over the past three weeks, he’s the #3 TE in PPR PPG…ahead of Darren Waller.
Great matchup with Philly Week 10!
-- Speaking of Giants things that you don’t trust…
FYI, Wayne Gallman (14-68-1, 1-9-0/2) is the #9 non-PPR PPG RB in fantasy since Week 7 (2 or more games played)…which is his time period since he became a ‘starter’. He’s scored a TD in three straight games.
Devonta Freeman is not able to get back/healed still, so Gallman goes for four-in-a-row for TDs scored in Week 10. In the broken-down state of fantasy RBs…Gallman has been a strong RB1 for three weeks running.
-- IDPs of note…
Jabrill Peppers (6 tackles, 5 PDs) is playing fantastic football of late. 6.6 tackles, 0.8 PDs, 0.3 TFLs per game his past 6 games. He’s become a DB1 in that span. On top of that, as I’ve mentioned for a few weeks now, he looks terrific on tape. He’s playing at another gear…like a player wanting to be paid in the offseason.
He’s been in the league 4 years, but just turned 25 years old last month.
Rookie SAF Kamren Curl (11 tackles, 1 sack) seems to be a new starter option for Washington. Lots of tackles, but I didn’t see any wow factor here. I’m not sure he’ll be a starter for long.
My man, WAS LB Cole Holcomb (7 tackles, 1 TFL) – 3rd start in a row, played a season high 90% of the snaps. He’s averaging 6.0 total tackles and 1.0 TFLs and 0.3 PDs per game in his three starts…and he’s only getting better! Please, Ron, don’t take him IDP-away from me again!!
-- What about these DSTs? I stick by my guidance for most of this season – these are top 10 defensive units working with horrible offenses but have a lot of schedule gold because they have to play the other NFC East teams a bunch.
Season-to-date…Washington is the #11 PPG scoring DST. But the Giants are #9.
Since Week 4, Washington is #10 in PPG among DSTs. But the Giants are #6.
Washington has the elite D-Line/pass rush, but the Giants have the better overall defensive unit. Which all doesn’t really matter because it’s more ‘who are they playing?’ that matters.
The Giants schedule turns dark after Week 10…no more NFC East teams to face until Week 17. The Giants are an OK start v. PHI, and then you’re done.
I like Washington-DST better. You know why? Because of the sneaky pairing that is available the ROS…pairing with, of all DSTs, Seattle.
Week 10 = WSH at DET
Week 11 = WSH v. CIN (burrow, but bad O-Line)
Week 12 = WSH at DAL or SEA at PHI
Week 13 = SEA v. NYG
Week 14 = SEA v. NYJ or WSH at SF
Week 15 = SEA at WSH
Week 16 = not great matchups for either, we’ll get one ahead for tricky Week 16.
Scared of Seattle’s DST? Don’t be (or do, but be scared of all DSTs) – most all that matters with DST is the opponent, not what you think of their roster. If they get a key injury, like with any DST, we’ll have to re-assess…but SEA has at PHI, NYG, NYJ, at WSH four weeks in a row from Weeks 12-15, which is AMAZING for FF. AND I’m seeing Seattle-DST dropped in a lot of places now.
Seattle is going to get some secondary healthy ahead…just got Jamal Adams back…and traded for Carlos Dunlap, who had some impact last week.
Get in ahead on SEA before FF analysts magically discover this…if you don’t have a great plan ahead at DST otherwise.
Snap Counts of Interest:
53 = McLaurin
40 = Cam Sims
16 = Steven Sims
45 = McKissic
25 = Ant Gibson
44 = Gallman
17 = D Lewis
16 = Alf Morris
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Texans 27, Jaguars 25
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Saints 38, Bucs 3
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
What happened to the Bucs in this game? The narrative going in was…Tampa Bay has a great defense, Tom Brady is humming, and Gronk is getting up to speed, and NOW they get Chris Godwin back AND the debut of Antonio Brown…plus the Saints defense looks porous and Drew Brees is not the guy he’s been in the past…plus the game at Tampa Bay on SNF. Was the spread -17.0 for TB, I cannot remember?
The Saints covered the spread if it were New Orleans -30.0 going in. Actually, the Saints covered a -30.0 spread by halftime.
What happened here?
A few thoughts…
1) Whenever something looks like an absolute guarantee, in the NFL, you should go the other way.
NO WAY the Bucs lose to Saints, or if they do…they would never lose by 30+!
NO WAY the Steelers won’t crush Dallas with Garrett Gilbert at QB! (that game was Dallas leading until 2+ minutes left).
NO WAY the Chiefs would lose to the Panthers! (Carolina missed a game winning FG last second)
NO WAY the Patriots lose to the Jets on MNF! (the Pats were getting beat all game and then Flacco handed them a win, last second).
If you took the dog in each of those games, you went (4-0) on your bets.
Week 10…NO WAY Jacksonville can hang with Green Bay at Lambeau. And NO WAY these Saints could lose to the 49ers.
Guess what way you should bet those two Week 10 contests?
2) The Saints are better coached, more disciplined than the Bucs.
In big games -- Sean Payton is an asset. Bruce Arians is a liability. Payton is a planner and a schemer. Arians is an emotional screamer who manages his team like he’s doing a standup gig Live from the Apollo. He thinks he’s old school Chris Rock with a dash of Andrew Dice Clay. Football is an emotional game, so Arians’ ‘cursing a lot’ way has some merit – but it didn’t work here. But now watch them come out on fire this week. And if they meet again this season, watch TB destroy the Saints.
3) The Bucs have no identity on offense besides ‘What does Brady want?’.
Brady isn’t his old self. He crumbles under pass rush pressure more and more these days. He has so many new weapons to throw which looks cool on paper but there’s no cohesion…yet…and maybe never will this season.
This Bucs roster is like a fantasy team, but it could just be a collection of talent that doesn’t fit/work/have cohesion. The Saints aren’t as sexy/interesting, but their core has been together for years.
This may turn out to be one of those ‘good losses’ for Tampa. They’re better as the hungry, disrespected underdog than as the accepted/adored top team – Arians is more comfortable leading ragtag underdogs. This devastating loss might be the hard reboot the Bucs needed. If they lose to Carolina this week, then they might be in way more internal disarray than anyone realized. If they blowout the Panthers, with impunity, this week then there is hope for them for a title run to the Super Bowl.
The Saints are now (6-2) and in the driver’s seat for the NFC South with two wins booked over the Bucs this season…and an easy schedule ahead. 11-12 wins is probably where the Saints land, and the edge in the NFC South.
The Bucs are now (6-3) and not done for the NFC South title, but they gotta get a game ahead of the Saints to avoid the tiebreaker. They have a path to 11-12 wins, but more likely 10-11 wins and a wild card.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The lead story was supposed to be…the return of the mega WRs. And, per usual, what we all expected went the other way.
Antonio Brown (3-31-0/5) didn’t start but sprinkled in quickly and then the game got out of hand and he was in a lot and played 78% of the snaps. Brown looked fine on the field. Still had the zip in his legs. Made a real nice catch over-the-middle that got a ‘wow’ from everyone watching.
However, there’s now so many ‘mouths to feed’ on the Bucs, Arians is having a hard time managing it. I think he’s going to throttle Antonio Brown back this week to make a point. That fear is on the table for a lower AB snap count game this week.
There’s trouble in paradise with Mike Evans (4-64-0/6) and Tom Brady…to the point a rift is growing with Evans and the Bucs organization. When they’re winning it’s all OK, but this game Antonio Brown was all the talk, and AB walked in and saw heavy snaps and good targeting…while Evans had his typical scraps from Brady game again. That issue all season of low targeting PLUS losing by 30+/getting embarrassed on national TV – I think Mike Evans is on the verge of blowing up. His frustration is high and rumor of that is seeping out of the TB locker room.
Arians has to manage Evans’ hurt ego, and then Chris Godwin’s (3-41-0/6) got a growing beef as well – all these top dog WRs from 2019 are now junk WR3s in fantasy terms…and that won’t sit well with them, personally. This season is costing Godwin future money…because Antonio Brown is now so special in one week of joining the team? All while ‘special treatment Brady’ walks in and grabs Gronk and AB as his BFF’s to thrust into the limelight while he freezes out Evans-Godwin. A fracture in the WR room is forming, no matter what they tell you on TV about how none of them care about their targets – that’s B.S., and especially BS when you just lost in humiliating fashion.
AB…Evans…Godwin…how can you project them for Week 10…or 11…or 12? They’re producing like WR3s under Brady suddenly. There’s only one football to go around.
-- Quietly, Michael Thomas (5-51-0/6) returned for the Saints and no one seemed to notice! All anyone is talking about is ‘What happened to the Bucs…and what was it like with Brady-to-AB?’
Thomas looked fine, got right into the action…but this game got out of hand so fast they were able to pull back the reins on Thomas’s play time – he worked just 55% of the snaps because he wasn’t needed to be out there. Antonio Brown played more of his team’s snaps coming off the street after two years away than returning mega-star WR Michael Thomas.
It creates a ‘buy low’ moment here – Thomas has been missing for weeks and then returns to a ‘meh’ FF game. His vibe is down, but he’s still that Thomas from 2019, or close to it. This return game for him didn’t need to be a star/heavy target. An excellent window to buy him as a WR1.5 from a frustrated redraft owner.
-- Tom Brady (22-38 for 209 yards, 0 TDs/3 INTs) had a bad game. Prior to this he had 17 TDs/1 INT in his last 6 games. Let’s not get hysterical. The situation is great for him…he has a million options to throw to, all-elite ones.
It was a bad night/bad game in the rain against a fired-up opponent who prior couldn’t stop anyone’s passing game. Things happen sometimes.
-- Because they got down so quick, the Bucs abandoned the run game…so Ronald Jones (3-9-0, 3-9-0/4) was not needed to do his normal work.
Leonard Fournette (1-0-0, 6-41-0/6) benefitted from the all-pass Bucs offensive needs.
The Bucs are going to run a lot vs. Carolina this week. RoJo and Fournette could be RB2s this week or better. Their FF worlds will be dictated by game script/situations. They also have RB1 activity being split in two…creating two RB2-3s week-to-week. It is what it is. Most NFL backfields are becoming lead RBs getting 8-14 touches in games.
-- Taysom Hill produced…
2-for-2 passing for 48 yards.
7 carries for 54 yards
One catch for 21 yards
9+ non-PPR points and 10+ PPR…and given the state of FF tight ends right now – he’s a TE1 threat week-to-week, if he qualifies in your league for TE.
His touch counts are growing every week. He could be a top 5 fantasy TE just off of 2-3 catches and 3-5 carries and 1-2 passes a game…as a TE.
-- Two more sacks for Saints DE Trey Hendrickson (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks)…now 7.5 sacks on the season in 8 games. I thought Marcus Davenport (1 PD) returning might cut into his stats, but Hendrickson isn’t slowing down.
-- Do we hate the Bucs-DST now…and LOVE the Saints-DST?
Prior to this game, for the season (Wks 1-8), the Bucs-DST was #5 in FF PPG (FPros scoring) and rising while the Saints were #20 overall.
Does it all flip now because of one game on TV Week 9?
The Bucs are fine. A top defensive unit that had a bad game against a top offense.
The Saints might turn a corner. They traded for Kwon Alexander, who could start working Week 10. Maybe they’re coming into their own, but it’s not a sure thing. The week prior to this the Bears moved the ball against them second half and almost beat them in OT. Prior to that the Panthers had no issues with them. Prior to that the Chargers rolled through them. Prior to that the Lions scored 29 points on them. Prior to that the Packers dropped 37 on them. Prior to that the Raiders dropped 34 on them.
The Saints-DST season comes down to…crushing the Bucs Week 1 and Week 9, and everything in-between was bad.
Snap Counts of Interest:
47 = Godwin
43 = Evans
39 = AB
19 = Miller
06 = Ty Johnson
33 = Fournette
16 = RoJo
45 = Tre’Quan
40 = Mk Thomas
22 = Emm Sanders
29 = Trautman (Starters rested later in the game)
26 = Cook
19 = T Hill
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Steelers 24, Cowboys 19
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game was 19-9 Dallas to start the 4th-quarter. Time of possession was with Dallas. Everything seemed to go the Cowboys’ way and the Steelers were just off. Ben was hobbling around on a bad knee sprain/strain. All looked lost, but Ben, as he does, led the comeback (limping around) and the Steelers posted three scores/17 points in the 4th-quarter to win it 24-19, the game winning score a TD pass with 2:19 left. It was a gutsy win by the Steelers…and another game where Dallas played well enough, considering their circumstances, but fell short in the end (prior game they were sticking with Philly with Ben DiNucci as their QB, but fell off in the end/couldn’t maintain).
Dallas has now lost five in-a-row and six of their last 7. You want to say their season is over, but they might only be 1.5 games out of first after their Week 10 BYE. Dallas has a path to 5-6 wins and being ‘in it’ (the NFC East) to the end but they are now the worst team in the NFC East…too many injuries, and such horrific coaching it defies all logic that they will win the NFC East – but it is possible still.
Pittsburgh stays undefeated (8-0). They’re good but not ‘undefeated good’; not best team in football good…just very good. Probably a (13-3) type finish and they make it to the Final Four but fall short of the Super Bowl. They are not totally assured of winning the AFC South either. Baltimore still has a path. But we project them (13-3) and the AFC North champs is the most likely outcome right now…a #2/#3 seed for the playoffs.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- When it’s a Steelers’ game, we have to start out talking about the WRs.
Here are my notes…
1) By halftime, I was getting a flood of messages about how terrible Diontae/Claypool are and how much the person hates them and some disliked me for even suggesting them…ever. In the 1st-half, the Steelers barely had the ball, and they were ineffective when they had it. Not much stats 1st-half, maybe one catch for either Diontae or Claypool.
In the 2nd-half, Ben had to step it up and suddenly we ended with double-digit targets for both Diontae/Claypool and solid PPR efforts in the end….and no one contacted me to apologize for any of the prior messages. Which is my normal life every week for about 4 months a year.
2) Chase Claypool (8-69-0/13) was open for a 51-yard TD pass that Ben threw to him on the money downfield, but CC got grabbed by the CB a bit to slow him down (no PI call) right before it landed and the ball ended up 2-3 inches away off his finger tips from an easy +11 fantasy points.
Claypool is a WR2 every week with strong WR1 upside in 2020 – and will be a star of stars for the future.
3) Diontae Johnson (6-77-0/10) was getting targets right out of the gate, 1st series, but he slipped while making a simple cut for his route and missed out on an easy pitch-and-catch designed throw. And then a disconnect the next throw…then a gap of time for the Steelers not having the ball or being effective with it. Diontae had little for stats early, but was getting looks right away -- but then when it got going 2nd-half Diontae was back to connecting with Ben. No worries here.
4) JuJu (6-93-1/7) had a section of the game where he was the open man/lesser covered and Ben went after it. JuJu got the TD and had a nice FF week, but he was also #3 in targets among the WRs. This is three nice weeks in a row for JuJu.
-- If Ben Roethlisberger (29-42 for 306 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) is out this week for COVID or due to his knee (which is being silenced by the COVID/lack of practicing)…who would Mason Rudolph throw the ball to more?
The good news is…it would be Rudolph vs. Cincy, so there would be hope for passing in general. We’ve not seen Rudolph for extended time with this trio, so who really knows? My guess is Rudolph has more time with Claypool than Diontae/JuJu this year…so there would be hope for Claypool, and Rudolph has time with Diontae from last season, so some familiarity there.
But Mason is NOT Ben…
-- Garrett Gilbert (21-38 for 243 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) played a halfway decent game, and thus all the Dallas WRs were plausible for FF. I thought it might be the case…that Gilbert would not DiNucci the WR group.
I suspect Andy Dalton will slip right into the starting lineup Week 11, after this bye week. Dalton at MIN, in a dome, against a bad pass D…might not be too bad for all involved.
-- Another week, another event where Tony Pollard (9-57-0, 1-1-0/2) looks better, fresher than Ezekiel Elliott (18-51-02-18-0/3).
Elliott is averaging 3.8 yards per carry this season, and Pollard 5.2.
Again, be careful getting too frisky with these ‘backup looks better than the starter’ notes/your observations watching the games – defensive calls/alignments change when Pollard is in vs. Elliott. Dallas is not changing off Elliott for Pollard…they’re just giving Pollard more touches as they run the ball more to stay out of the passing game as much as they can so their 3rd/4th-string QBs are throwing less.
You should hold Pollard if you have Elliott, but don’t anyone fantasize that an RB coup is coming. That’s Zeke’s backfield until he dies.
-- Speaking of dead RBs…James Conner (9-22-0, 2-0-0/2) put up a real gem here. Conner’s numbers continue to dwindle as the season wears on. The Steelers HAVE to move on from him in 2021, when he hits free agency. Nice guy. Great cancer recovery story. Mediocre lead running back.
Mike Tomlin will not make a change unless forced to…and 2021 Conner will be allowed to go to free agency. Then Tomlin will try to force a Bennie Snell (3-1-0) and Anthony McFarland (3-7-0) duo in 2021, I think…and maybe draft an RB as well.
The wave of the future, for strategy, depth, cost containment is to have 3-4 cheap RBs and don’t give them big deals after their original deals run out after four seasons. Meaning…lot’s more RBBC coming for FF. We’ll not know what RB to trust going forward because teams will be adding more RBs through the draft and creating ‘stables’ not ‘workhorses’.
-- Three IDP notes…
Dallas rookie CB Trevon Diggs (7 tackles) is out for probably the rest of the season…it’s a shame because the Dallas D was starting to stabilize, and Diggs was a nice part of that stabilization. The Dallas D loses a step, again, with this key injury.
PIT rookie DE Alex Highsmith (3 tackles, 1.0 sack) is starting to play more and more snaps. I think he’s impressed the team and is now in their plans for the future. One the better DE prospect, in my scouting, in the 2020 NFL Draft...and one of the nicest people you’d ever come across.
I don’t know what laboratory PIT DT Henry Mondeaux (1 tackles, 1 TFL) was created in but it’s scary. He’s like a fire hydrant (with decent speed/get off) came to life in human form. Just a brick wall of a man. If you watch the Steelers games ahead…try and catch a glimpse. When I saw him in this game, I thought it was a movie character from like ‘Longest Yard’. He’s a freak. He’s like a 1970s Steelers player came to life off an old football card.
Mondeaux was a solid DE at Oregon and went undrafted in 2018 and was with KC initially but the Steelers stole him and developed him and now he’s playing 10-15 snaps as a D-Line, special teamer, and fullback blocker on goal line situations. He’s something. Not sure if anything for FF, but for the NFL he has my attention.
Snap Counts of Interest:
47 = Zeke
23 = Pollard
63 = JuJu
59 = Diontae
56 = Claypool
13 = J Washington
32 = Conner
08 = McFarland
05 = Snell
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Ravens 24, Colts 10
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I went into this game thinking the Ravens were gonna take the Colts’ head off, but it didn’t happen that way. Sure, the Ravens won, covered my ‘bet of the year’ proclamation…but it wasn’t what I expected.
I keep thinking the Ravens are dominant still, but in their last 6 games they’ve scuffled through with five of those 6 opponents…only dominating the Bengals. Otherwise the Ravens are either getting beaten by top teams or they’re winning games by a decent margin but the opponents, even weaker ones, kinda hang around in games and have chances to win instead of the Ravens fully putting them away.
The high flying, crush everything in sight Ravens from 2019…that team seems to have disappeared. Lamar Jackson is getting figured out and looks cool but human. They’ve lost their best O-Lineman to injury a few weeks ago. They lost CB Marlon Humphrey this game to COVID. It’s still a good-to-very good team but something just doesn’t seem right here. Not as great as 2019.
The Colts led 7-0 quickly in this game and were holding down the Ravens’ offense…and then a fumble, scoop-and-score Ravens D TD tied it up and flipped the momentum…or at least paused it for Indy gaining confidence. Eventually, the Colts took a 10-7 lead into halftime.
The Ravens defense started to tighten up and Philip Rivers got uncomfortable and none of his WRs could get open easily, and when they did Rivers threw it too far or too short or too much behind them. The Ravens started to get some offensive mojo going as the game wore on and they slowly started to turn the game and once with the lead they got tough on Indy/the Colts couldn’t answer. It was a hard-fought win by the Ravens, but not pretty or super-impressive…but a win is a win.
The Ravens jump to (6-2) and they can still win the AFC North if they keep winning and knock off Pittsburgh Week 12. The schedule is cake after Week 12…five easy wins on the board. The Ravens could win out and go (14-2) and win their division and have a shot at the #1 seed (they already lost to KC this season, so not likely). But if they lose to Pittsburgh, at Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving night…the Ravens may go (13-3) and that be a wild card.
The Colts fall to (5-3)…they should not have won this game, they are not a (6-2) type team. (5-3/4-4) is more their mode at this juncture…better than the average team but not a Super Bowl threat team. Their season is going to come down, for the most part, the next three weeks…where they play Tennessee twice in that span. If they can sweep the Titans, then the AFC South is up from grabs. Likely, they split with Tennessee and the Colts have a much tougher schedule ahead to navigate to try and win the AFC South. We see Indy going (9-7) and getting a wild card.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The latest on the Jonathan Taylor (6-27-1, 2-7-0/2) chronicles…
He started.
He took the first three plays in-a-row, run-pass-run.
He got the goal line shot for a TD and the first score of the game.
He fumbled the following series, and it was scooped and scored to tie the game.
He kinda disappeared after the fumble.
Jordan Wilkins (11-39-0, 2-0-0/2) went on to out-touch and out-snap him…again.
Taylor does not look hurt at all, he looks fine. He was rolling a bit until the fumble.
He’s never going to escape this RB-trio with Frank Reich in charge, unless he gets so dominant from the first snap that they can’t turn away – but then it would be the same deal next week.
Taylor is an RB2-3, stuck in a trio on purpose by design and it’s not changing…and if it does change it would be for a moment/hot hand stretch but not a full scale lead dog situation (unless others got hurt).
Taylor looks fine. But he has little room to run because teams are not afraid of Philip Rivers, so defenses play up against the run more…especially when Taylor comes in. The Colts are #21 in rushing yards per game and #30 in yards per carry…it’s not just Taylor struggling to run here.
With Taylor…you have a 6-10 carries, 1-2 catches, split role/not in the game in the hurry up RB2.5 who leans RB3 more than RB2 for the foreseeable future in 2020.
Wilkins is not going to be an ‘answer’…just more likely to get the majority touches in games right now, for whatever reason, but he’s nothing more than an RB3 flyer.
-- J.K. Dobbins (12-30-0, 2-3-0/2) is in a different but similar-ish FF situation. He’s also part of an RB-trio, when Mark Ingram returns, and then JKD will be a 6-10 carries, 0-2 catches a game guy…but he’s not the goal line guy in 2020 but he IS the pass catcher back…but sadly the Ravens don’t throw to the RB.
I’m getting a bad feeling that Dobbins is a great RB talent that is stuck in a not-great situation for FF now…but also in 2021. Unless the Ravens go full scale Dobbins for 18+ carries a game…we’re going to be stuck with an RB1 talent who puts up RB2 numbers, especially in PPR.
There are rare few teams where there is ONE RB who is holy, and more and more teams ‘sharing’ and splitting and rotating…and when the new wave of rookie RBs pours into 2021…it’s gonna get worse.
Fantasy is filled with a bunch of RB2 you hope scores a TD to make sense to have had played for the week.
Do you know how many RBs ran for 100+ yards in a game last week in the NFL? One. Dalvin Cook for 200+.
Do you know how many RBs ran for more than 75+ yards in a game last week? Two…Cook and James Robinson.
Here were the top 11 rushers in Week 9:
Cook 200+
J Robinson 99
Damien Harris 71
Edmonds 70
McCaffrey 69
Ballage 69
Mattison 68
Gallman 68
Booker 68
D Henry 68
Alf Morris 67
Kalen Ballage, Wayne Gallman, Alexander Mattison, Devontae Booker, and Alf Morris were among your top rushers of the week…MIDSEASON.
The running back went from meaning everything to meaning nothing in a half of a season for fantasy. Go win with elite QBs and WRs and smart DST streamers. Running backs all suck except for like 2-3 of them that you’re not acquiring.
Jonathan Taylor is killing you? What running back do you think is going to save you? Are you going to start Kalen Ballage this week? He was the 5th best rusher last week, so maybe…
-- The Colts WRs were covered tight by the Ravens, but they did get open some…better than the Steelers WRs did last week vs. Baltimore. But Rivers was missing them a lot on his throws.
To comment on the Colts WRs…
1) Michael Pittman (4-56-0/7) seemed like Rivers’ top target, and Pittman looked solid, but he was #1 here this game because…
2) Marcus Johnson (2-14-0/7) drew the top coverage (Jimmy Smith) – meaning the Ravens know who the true #1 for Rivers is, and they cut it off.
3) DeMichael Harris (2-28-0, 4-27-0/4) is the name of the week to know…
A high school track star/football player who went the JUCO route and wound up transferring to Southern Miss. In the 2019 season, he was an RB/WR hybrid rushing for 541 yards, 5.0 ypc, and 5 TDs in 12 games…and catching 34 passes for 346 yards and 3 more TDs, plus returned a kick for a TD as well.
He has been on the practice squad and was elevated for this game, and he was the biggest part of the offense for the Colts this game – it’s either a sad commentary on the state of the Colts’ offense or a gold star for Harris.
It/Harris was working too…the jet sweep is an auto 5+ yard play…if I were an NFL head coach I’d just run 70 jet sweeps a game, because no one ever stops it…except the offensive coordinator stopping calling the play. Harris averaged 14.0 yards per carry on two carries and saw two passes for 10 yards a pop average…a bubble screen and him lined up as an RB and taking a swing pass. Basically, in this game, Harris got elevated off the practice squad and got better looks/planning in his debut game than 90%+ of the WRs in the NFL did in Week 9.
I’m sure Frank Reich is in love with himself with this weapon, so I expect Harris to get 4-8 more touches this week…he’s on the FF radar now. He looked fast, smooth, and NFL-ready. Not sure how good a receiver he is but he can catch short passes and runs the ball with confidence.
-- Will Lamar Jackson (19-23 for 170 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT, 13-58-1) bounce back/rise up for FF from here? Probably not. The whole Ravens thing from 2019 seems to have fizzled out…the magic, the excitement…pretty much washed away.
LJax is less than 200 yards passing, maybe a pass TD, 50-60 yards rushing, and hopefully a rush TD per week.
If he rushed for 50 and a TD and threw for 200 and a TD = that’s 23 FF points (4pts per pass TD)…guys like Kyler, Mahomes, Herbert, Allen, Wilson are putting that up and then some every week it seems. Lamar is not as special as he was last year, but the higher end passes got more special in 2020, and more QBs became special (Herbert, Allen…Burrow about there). Time has passed Lamar by…he’s been figured out to some degree and he was always a ‘good’ overall QB talent not an elite talent, but he looked elite last season…but whatever that was last year, it isn’t anywhere close in 2020.
Leagues where I went with Lamar to start the year, I switched to Herbert early and saved the season…or stuck with Lamar and those teams are dying or hanging on with QB2 Lamar…or are out of the playoffs already.
If you don’t think fantasy QB matters…you haven’t played it in 2020. It always mattered, was always undervalued. I think 2021 the fantasy intelligentsia might actually start siding with me on that point. I bought into the heavy RB thing this year…and it has burned me in almost every situation – I’ve had to dig out, trade, waiver, maneuver into a better team away from the ever-hurt, ever-changing RBs.
-- With the fall of the Ravens’ offense, Mark Andrews (3-22-0/5) is not a strong TE1 anymore.
Six of his last 7 games he’s had 3 or fewer catches in a game.
He has not cracked 60+ yards in a game this season.
He’s been under 35 yards receiving in five of his 8 games this season.
He’s the #9 TE in FF in PPR PPG this season.
Since Week 2, he’s the 18 TE in FF in PPR PPG this season.
The whole Ravens thing is atrophying. If I presented the same data on Marquise Brown, you’d shudder as well. Marquise Brown complaining about targets midweek and not getting force-fed this game…a bad sign ahead for Brown.
Everything Ravens, like everything Colts, for FF, is pretty much dead for having a ‘1’ after it…no RB1, QB1, TE1, WR1...DST1 and PK1 is all that’s left.
-- BAL rookie LB Malik Harrison (11 tackles, 1 TFL) started and played the most snaps of his young career here (49%)…he made 11 tackles (6 solo/5 assist). He looked OK. I didn’t see anything ‘wow’…but it might not be long before he is more of a starter than not for Baltimore.
Fellow rookie LB Patrick Queen (4 tackles) is starting to fulfill my scouting fears on him…8.4 tackles per game his first five games out of the NFL chute…3.3 tackles per game his last 3 weeks. I don’t think he’s a great IDP ILB tackle accumulator.
Flimsy high-status rookie IDPs tend to play lights out their first few games, to impress the coaches, etc., but then after they do that, they tend to fall back into what they are.
-- Weeks 1-5 this season, the Colts-DST was #2 in FF PPG.
Weeks 6-9…#11 in FF.
The Colts have a good defense, but it was inflated for FF by an easy schedule…and most of their points boosted off two D TDs against the Jets early in the season.
I’ve been warning the schedule is coming for them…it started here. Nothing but legit QBs to face the rest of the season, on paper.
Snap Counts of Interest:
60 = Marcus Johnson
59 = Pittman
41 = Pascal
16 = DeM Harris
23 = Wilkins
23 = Hines
21 = J Taylor
36 = Dobbins
24 = Edwards
03 = Justice Hill
