R.C. Fischer

FFM

06 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Browns 14, Vikings 7

This was the definition of a hard fought, defensive battle win for the Browns. I was surprised that the Browns held the very good Vikings offense to just a TD…and it was on the opening drive…so a shutout the next 50+ minutes. I moved up this rewatch to take a deeper look at this Browns defense that ruled with 9 sacks over Chicago Week 3, and then this gem Week 4. My full FF-thoughts on this DST will be in the player notes below.

The Browns’ offensive is fading while the defense is rising, but overall they’re probably good enough to still win the division. A tough schedule ahead, but they will probably get to 9-10 wins. But 7-8 wins wouldn’t totally shock me either. The Browns have upside but also growing offensive flaws.

The Vikings defense is no slouch either – back-to-back games holding good teams (CLE and SEA) to under 20 points. The Vikings are (1-3) but really could be (4-0). They are the best (1-3) team in football…and we project them with 10 wins and a wild card…and a possible threat to Green Bay for the NFC North. The Vikings are one of the better teams in the NFL…they went toe-to-toe with CLE, ARI, CIN this season (a combined 10-2 collectively)…and whacked SEA. If Minnesota is as good as the Browns, and people think the Browns are a Super Bowl contender, then…

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let’s talk about the Cleveland-DST first…because they deserve it. That was one wicked defense I saw on this tape. Like…’wow’. Like ‘Holy S***’.

I’ve not seen that much pressure on a QB…since…Cleveland Week 3 sacking Justin Fields 9 times and hitting him 15 times. They hit Kirk Cousins 10 times here and only sacked him twice, but he was uncomfortable most every drop back…but Cousins is so damn good he fought through it like a trooper, but the Browns were just too much.

The three defenses that I’ve seen the past 2-3 weeks and I think they’re the most menacing in football (to my eyes): Arizona, L.A. Chargers and these Browns. The Panthers right there too. The Jets are pretty aggressive/emerging but don’t have the top-to-bottom talent of these other big names.

The Browns front group was pushing the Vikings O-Line back every time…and they batted down passes, chased Cousins from the pocket a lot, and hit him often. They only sacked him twice but lost 2-3 sacks to Cousins just smartly getting rid of the ball as he was in the grasp.

I saw the Browns slumber through their Week 2 games with the Texans and thought the Browns were just mediocre on defense, so when they smoked the Bears with 9 sacks Week 3…I thought it was a Bears problem, and it was -- but the Browns defense was exasperating the problem exponentially. Here, against a top 10 NFL offense/QB…they made the Vikings’ lives miserable.

This is a DST built for Fantasy – high pressure = sacks, strip sacks, and hurried throws/picks.

The Browns are #7 in PPG allowed in the NFL (and they faced MIN and KC).

The Browns are #2 in sacks on the season. Top 5 in pressures per pass attempt.

They have allowed net passing yards of 1 (to CHI) and 190 (to MIN) the past two weeks.

I would say the Browns have a great front four…and a good/OK back seven. The DB group is potentially very good, but still coming together as a unit with offseason changes and high draft pick players returning from missed-the-season injury last year.

The Browns face the Chargers and Cardinals the next two weeks…arguably two of the best 3 teams in football. The schedule has been brutal. Some will FF-drop them for fear of the LAC game…then more will drop them in Week 6 v. ARI. Be on the lookout for a pickup in and around that, potentially…

After Week 7, the Browns face: Teddy-Ben-Burrow-Mac-Goff-Lamar before a Week 13 bye. Six quality matchups, many with some of the weakest O-Lines in football.

 -- Also, consider… The Vikings defense is no slouch either. It’s coming into its own as well. They were toe-to-toe, almost, with the Browns defense. The Vikings-DST is #4 in sacks in the NFL right now. They are the 3rd-best defense on 3rd-downs in the NFL.

This is an on-the-come defense…just not quite the pass rush Cleveland has, and a worse back 7 because their secondary is still dicey…but improving, quickly.

Any time this MIN defense is at home, with that crowd noise, it’s an extra boost. Week 5 hosting DET…it works for FF. Week 6 at CAR, if CMC is out, could be nice. Then the schedule gets nasty for a while starting with their Week 7 bye.

Just take note – if your QB/WR is facing MIN…it’s not a certain boost. This is not the 2020 Vikings on defense.

 -- Dalvin Cook (9-34-0, 2-10-0/6) got banged up again in-game, left for a while and then returned. He will likely be questionable and may sit out or sit a lot if they manhandle DET this week. It would be a good time, if he’s questionable all week, to explore cheap trades for him from the desperate – because he looks fantastic otherwise.

Because they might sit him this week because of an ‘easy’ win vs. DET…Alexander Mattison (10-20-0) is worth holding onto as a shock/surprise solo starter v. DET this week.

 -- I cannot tell you how awful Odell Beckham (2-27-0/7) is working with Baker Mayfield (15-33 for 155 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT)…it drags Baker down. He’s always trying to force it to OBJ and it's almost always covered or OBJ goes the wrong way on the timing throw.

Speaking of Baker, his numbers are going in the toilet since OBJ got back…and, shockingly, the Browns are the 5th-most sacked team in the league right now – this supposedly great O-Line isn’t great at pass blocking (but is at run blocking).

 -- Three notes on MIN receivers…

1) Justin Jefferson (6-84-1/7) abused a very good Denzel Ward in this game. Jefferson is like fine art watching him work. I’ve learned to appreciate it as I’ve gotten older (from last year).

2) K.J. Osborn (3-26-0/7) is really good…but there’s not enough passes to go around for him. But note, he’s a really good, future starting WR. He’s going to matter for FF someday. He’s like a junior Justin Jefferson.

3) Tyler Conklin (4-18-0/6) had a down game off his nice Week 3, so now everyone will turn on Conklin. Just note that Cleveland is one of the five best defenses against the TE this season, and that’s including facing Travis Kelce Week 1. Don’t write off Conklin too quickly. Not saying he’s a star TE1 ahead, but he’s not as dead as you might think.

Snap Counts of Interest:

33 = D Cook

23 = Mattison

66 = Thielen

59 = Jefferson

42 = Osborn

56 = Hooper

52 = Njoku

29 = Bryant

41 = Hunt

37 = Chubb

Ross Jacobs

FFM

06 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Seahawks 28, 49'ers 21

I started watching this game thinking I was about to see a pretty good Seattle team slowly but surely control the game against a weaker SF squad. I was not prepared to see the 49'ers look like the better team for a good chunk of this game.

SF was dominating the early portion of this game. I'm not sure the Seahawks broke 20 yards of offense until the first half was nearly over. Not only was the SF defensive line dominating them up front, but Russ and his WR's couldn't take advantage of a theoretically poor 49'er secondary. It wasn't a fluke either. It was pure domination.

The spark for Seattle was, shockingly, Alex Collins. He started a series with a couple big runs and a nice catch downfield and that got Seattle to the end zone where Metcalf would tie the game. In the second half Wilson put together a nice drive and took the lead on a scramble for a TD. The game was 14-7 Seattle at that point, but SF fumbled the ensuing kickoff and Seattle got the ball at the 49'er 15 yard line. Of course they punched in the easy TD and it proved to be too large a gap for Trey Lance to overcome.

Lance would pull the game back to 21-13, but the Seahawks answered again to make it 28-13 and the game looked over for good. Once again though Lance drove the 49'ers down the field and scored to make it a 7 point game. SF tried an onside kick with about a 1:30 left but didn't recover.

I don't think there's a massive gap between these two teams, but SF definitely played better for most of the game, and it was only the fumbled kickoff that gave Seattle an easy TD for the lead. Seattle has now beaten an injured Colts team, lost to the not great Titans, gotten spanked by the Vikings, and gotten lucky to beat the 49'ers. They aren't a great team. They are an average team that's 19th in yards per game, 10th in scoring with some lucky turnovers going their way (and playing some bad defenses), dead last in defensive yards per game, and 19th in defensive scoring per game. I'm sure Wilson will find some way to get them to 9 or 10 wins like he always does, but this looks like the weakest Seattle unit I've seen in a few years.

San Francisco has a slightly better offense, top 12 or so despite Garoppolo's limitations, and their defense is average to slightly below average. They gave up a flurry of late points to the Lions after crushing them most of the game, held the Eagles down (with some luck), got smoked by the Packers, and really did a good job against the Seahawks. It's not a horrible unit. They'll finish around .500 or so, not bad but not really a playoff contender either.

Fantasy Notes

--Of course you know I'm starting with Trey Lance (9-18 for 157 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 7-41-0). Let me begin with a humble statement: I was right all along. 

In the entire first half Garoppolo scored once. In the 2nd half, Lance scored twice. Yes, one was a busted play of sorts, but those types of things happen because defenses are worried about his running ability. Lance should have been starting from day 1. If he had, the 49'ers might not have lost this game. Let me explain...

When Lance started the 2nd half for an injured Garoppolo, he came out and was very shaky for a couple of series, lots of his usual inaccurate passes, not seeing defenders, etc. But as the game went on he started to settle down, and you could see with every passing snap that he was improving. I've never seen anything like it. RC watched some of it live and saw the same thing.

Lance was progressing rapidly from snap to snap and by the end of the game he was starting to look like the guy I've been howling about for months. Still not the greatest passer, but a big, strong, fast and mobile guy that can break tackles, extend plays, and make something out of nothing. We finally saw him run in an explosive fashion, not just your typical mobile QB stuff, but running with speed and agility. He's definitely got that and RC and I were beginning to get worried that I had overestimated his running ability. No such worry now. I should also point out that, while there was definitely a package of plays ready for Lance, this wasn't him working with a dedicated game plan built around him. Once he becomes the full-time starter the offense should be nicely tailored to his strengths.

The stupid part is that Kyle Shanahan has been holding back Lance for whatever reason, and Lance was still jittery as a result. If he had been getting snaps since week 1, all that would have been out of his system and who knows where he might have progressed to already. If he's improving exponentially with every snap (this is what I meant by his ceiling is insanely high due to his lack of reps in college), then it's a crime to hold him back and not give him those reps. You could have started him against the garbage Lions and Eagles and been fine, but no, Kyle is too smart for that, and now he's dug himself a hole. And now to top it off, he's talking about starting Garoppolo again next week if he's not hurt.

What kind of idiot watches his veteran struggle to score while his hotshot rookie is putting points up every time he comes in the game and decides to stick with the veteran? This is mismanagement at its worst, and I think it's going to cost Kyle his job.

I still say we can expect low QB1 numbers from Lance once he's the starter. He's going to be an erratic passer for sure, but his legs are going to do the damage, and he's still capable of making some ridiculous plays in the passing game. That's been the argument for him all along. Even if he's a lesser passer, his legs make him more dangerous all-around than Jimmy. He opens up the offense by forcing the defense to account for him as a runner and that helps everyone. The offense is better with Lance in, mistakes and all. It's just a matter of time, if not this week then soon...

Actually, I hope it's not this week as the 49'ers have to face the Arizona defense, and that is not where I want Lance taking his first starting action. If he does it could be a pick 6 fest for the Arizona defense.

--Further proving my point about Lance elevating the entire offense, how much better did Trey Sermon (19-89-0) look in the 2nd half? It's not magic. Running QB's are good for the ypc of RB's. It gives them more room to run because now the LB's can't vacate their lanes and crash down on the line. We've seen this time and time again. Just look at the numbers for the Seattle RB's before and after Russell Wilson or any of the guys in Baltimore. Whoever is at RB each week is going to benefit from having Lance in. Of course he will steal a few goalline TD's, but that's the price you pay.

Sermon took about the same number of snaps as he did last week, but this week they trusted him to carry the ball much more often and he looked decent but still not amazing. I thought he was running more decisively than we had seen so far. I don't think he's seized the job and next week Elijah Mitchell could be back though and render this backfield a mess once again.

--Deebo Samuel (8-156-2) is still the only receiver you want from this team, but like RC talked about, I'd be looking to trade up with him if possible. Try and turn him into Cooper Kupp specifically. Samuel has a ton of value right now, and while he'll continue to be a good player, there are some questions about this offense moving forward. Also, Samuel has been good no doubt, but he's also benefiting from two fluky 75 yard TD's in the first 4 weeks. That isn't likely to continue. Don't dump him but try to sell him high into something even better. Again Kupp is the best option because people still don't fully trust him.

--I've already pointed out how disappointing George Kittle (4-40-0/11) has been for fantasy for quite some time and he repeated that output again here. He did see a total of 11 targets though and most of those came from Lance in the second half. Lance starting could be very good for Kittle because even though they might connect at a lower rate, defenses won't be able to key on Kittle and Lance has the arm to hit him further downfield. The more I think about it the more I'm opening up to the idea that Kittle might really take off with Lance as the starter. Something to think about. If we don't jump on it now though we'll miss our chance as Kittle still has a ton of name value with most people in fantasy.

--I said I didn't like this Seattle passing game the very first week and here you go. Lighting up a very weak Tennessee secondary with low volume doesn't automatically mean you're setting the world on fire. Until they prove they'll throw it more I don't want any part of trying to guess what week Tyler Lockett (4-24-0/5) and DK Metcalf (4-65-1/8) catch a TD.

Another thing I talked about before, that is becoming more and more obvious...Metcalf is the clear leader between him and Lockett. It's no longer a dynamic duo per se. Lockett is still a great player and will get some good numbers, but Wilson is looking first for DK for good reason. He's really developing into a very good all-around receiver to go along with his phenomenal athleticism. If I knew they were going to start airing it out (and that DK was healthy) I'd be a big buyer. Metcalf has as much potential as anybody in the league but is being held back by this pedestrian passing game.

Speaking of Metcalf's injury, we still haven't gotten any details on it. Based on what we knew this past weekend there was reason to believe it might have been either turf toe or a Lisfranc injury. Since he played and was seemingly fine there's almost no way it's a Lisfranc. That's great news. It does mean that turf toe is the most likely culprit, and while that's not devastating news, it is something that should be monitored closely as it can easily turn into a worse injury or drag a player down for weeks.

--The thing that's been dragging the Seattle offense down most is their utter insistence on running everything through Chris Carson (13-30-0, 1-1-0/1) despite the fact that he's just an average back. In this game it was plain as day that nothing good was coming from slamming Carson up the middle every play, and Seattle shockingly started getting Alex Collins (10-44-1, 2-34-0/2) more involved which provided the spark the Seahawks needed to get going.

Collins looked much better than Carson, and RC was all over Collins all the way back in the pre-season. I don't know what's gotten into him, but he looks slimmed down and much quicker but still running decisively and with his usual power. So...do we have a split on our hands? I doubt it. Pete Carroll is too stubborn and committed to Carson to suddenly put him in a rotation with Collins. I expect them to go back to business as usual next week. But if Carson continues to struggle this might eventually turn into something closer to a split. It definitely should not just be written off as something that will never happen again. There is danger to Carson's position now, even if it isn't right on his doorstep just yet.

IDP Notes

--Azeez Al-Shaair (10 tackles) did it again. He's put up 10 tackles each of the two games since Dre Greenlaw got hurt. I don't see any reason why that should stop either. He just always seems to get at least a piece of every other tackle.

--Yet another player I've been talking about since pre-season is Seattle safety Quandre Diggs (7 tackles, 2 pd). He's averaging 7.75 tackles per game this year and is really forming a nice duo with Jamaal Adams. Adams gets all the headlines, but I think Diggs is the more sound player. It was Adams that allowed the busted coverage to Deebo for a TD.

Snap Counts of Interest

25 = Chris Carson

22 = Alex Collins

68 = Deebo Samuel

51 = Brandon Aiyuk

39 = Mohamed Sanu

39 = Trey Sermon

Ross Jacobs

FFM

05 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Colts 27, Dolphins 17 

You'd think a game with 44 total points would be more exciting. This wasn't. It was a completely lifeless game between two teams that are hanging on for dear life.

The Colts are the better team for sure, but they got handed an awful lot of gifts by the Dolphins. Multiple short fields off turnovers, kicks going out of bounds, penalties giving them first downs...they wouldn't have scored 27 on this Miami defense most weeks.

Now the Colts do have some hope because they are missing multiple offensive linemen to injury but should get them back at some point. If they can get the line healthy to protect Wentz they might actually have a solid team in the 9-10 win range. I'm honestly not sure they will get there though.

The top 10 defense the Colts fielded last year has taken a step back. They aren't bad exactly, but they definitely aren't as menacing up front either. Despite spending their early picks in the draft on pass rushers, they still don't have one.

As for the Dolphins, well, you know the issues there. The defense is still pretty good and trying to keep this team in games, but the offense is so dreadful that they are constantly being put on short fields that make it really difficult to stop the opposing offense. Their offensive line is the weakest link, but Brissett isn't helping matters much. I thought he would play short, safe football like he always has in the past, but he's acting like he's trying to make plays to take the job from Tua which is never going to happen. Consequently he's turning the ball over more than usual, which is the one bad thing Tua doesn't do at least. I can't believe I'm saying this, but once Tua comes back I think this team is a little better if only because he doesn't make too many dumb mistakes and put his team in bad positions. Then they can hope the defense bails them out with some turnovers. It's possible they'll get to 6-7-8 wins by the end of the year.

Fantasy Notes

--If you have Jonathan Taylor (16-103-1, 3-11-0/3) now is the time to think about flipping him. The offensive line is corrupted right now and may not be healthy all year despite the hope, he's not getting the heavy workloads you'd like to see, and the schedule isn't doing him a ton of favors either. There's a couple of matchups with the Texans coming up, but also dates with good run defenses like the Ravens, Jets, Titans, and Bucs who are all going to key in on Taylor because they aren't afraid of Wentz.

Miami has one of the weakest run defenses in the league and even then a good chunk of Taylor's yards came on one jet sweep that Miami wasn't ready for. Taylor isn't the problem really. He looks as strong and athletic as ever. There's just a lot of other factors that are going to hold him back this year. I'm not sure you can get much for him as everyone is still aware of the slow start, but maybe a 2-for-2 trade will get it done for Mixon or something similar. Of course you may just have to hold and pray for the line to get back.

RC NOTE: I’m a hold on JT. I’ll wait for the O-Line to get back + Wentz to get healthier + Marlon Mack to be gone. I’m pro-JT...with mild confidence. 

--One guy you do not have to worry about and should be trying to trade for right now is Michael Pittman (6-59-0/8). I noted a few weeks ago that he looked fantastic, like a true #1 receiver but that he wasn't getting the targets/treatment of a #1. Well now he's getting it. There is no doubt anymore and not much is going to stop this connection. He's a bona fide WR1.5 still available as a WR2+. Don't sell out for him, but try to work a deal to get him on the cheap after this quiet game. He won't be available for discount prices much longer.

--Carson Wentz (24-32 for 228, 2 TD/0 INT, 5-8-0) is playing surprisingly well all things considered. It looks like he's lost a little bit of arm strength as he floated a few passes here, something I haven't seen him do much in the past, but otherwise he's playing smart, accurate football and not taking as many stupid risks. If this offensive line gets healthy Wentz might suddenly become a nice QB2 option.

--So let me get this straight...last week Marlon Mack (10-22-0, 1-1-0/2) requests a trade because he's the odd man out of the Taylor/Hines duo, and now he's taking 10 carries while Hines is barely used? What in the world? I do not understand how this coaching staff decides on RB usage, and I don't think I ever will. I wouldn't trust this at all. Next week it will probably be Hines getting 12 targets and catching 8 passes for 90 yards and a TD or something.

--I'm not really interested in much else from this Colts offense and that includes Mo Alie-Cox (3-42-2/5). I didn't see any real connection or intent to get him the ball here. He's just a big body Wentz could throw a jump ball to in the end-zone. Like most TE's he'll have moments of usefulness when he gets a TD, but you'll never know which weeks those are going to be.

--The biggest question about the Dolphins this week is what the heck happened to Myles Gaskin (2-3-0) and will it continue? Unfortunately, I don't have a great answer for that. It wasn't like Gaskin was sprinkled in throughout the game as a random option. He was in for a series by himself in the middle of the game and that was all. I can't find anything to suggest Gaskin is banged up or in the doghouse, so my best guess is this was simply a game plan issue and the coaching staff wanted a bigger back to lead against Indy. Then once they got down it became throw-to-catch-up time.

I expect that Gaskin will likely be back to his usual role next week for what that's worth. This is still a bad offensive line with a QB nobody is afraid of, and Gaskin isn't a great athlete anyways, so there's just not going to be room to work for now.

RC NOTE: I have no clue either, but Brian Flores is going to get fired soon and he is helping me with my top bet of the Miami ‘under’ win total this season, so keep it going Brian! I don’t know if Gaskin will be the guy next week...or Brown...Gerrid Doaks...or the corpse of LeGarrette Blount, or any other ex-Patriot RB he can get his hands on. They all suck in Miami, so ‘who cares’?

--On the back of that discussion I don't think you can suddenly trust Malcolm Brown (8-23-0, 1-4-0/1) either. All the same things still apply and I'm guessing he goes back to his normal workload (or at best a split with Gaskin) next week. It's just not worth anything unless he falls backwards into a TD, and you can't count on that with how bad the offense is.

--Is DeVante Parker (4-77-1/9) suddenly a viable option? Not really. He was barely used until the last 5 minutes of the game and Brissett suddenly realized he could just throw it in Parker's direction and hope he came down with it. Parker still refuses to work the middle of the field and so he's left with only sideline passes in 1-on-1 coverage. He'll make an amazing one handed grab and then drop an easy pass right in his hands the very next play. There are better options available.

--If I was going to have a receiver from this team I'd still take Jaylen Waddle (3-33-0/4). Unlike his superfast college teammate Ruggs, Waddle is actually showing some actual wide receiver skills. There might be some hope for him in a year or two with a better QB. If Watson ends up here Waddle would be the shock WR1-1.5 I bet.

--I don't care how much RC and Katz bash Mike Gesicki (5-57-1/6), he's a decent player. He's finally gotten over the softness he showed early in his career and is able to make tough grabs over the middle and hang on even after taking a big shot. What I said about Waddle applies to him too. If Miami lands a good QB at some point Gesicki could find himself being quite fantasy relevant. He's a decent option right now if you're desperate, kind of in that Dalton Schultz range.

RC NOTE: I am pro-Gesicki with Ryan Fitzpatrick...and Jacoby Brissett, not as keen on him with Tua. And we’re getting Tua back soon...

‍

Snap Counts of Interest

35 = Malcolm Brown

12 = Myles Gaskin

5 = Salvon Ahmed

36 = Jonathan Taylor

22 = Marlon Mack

22 = Nyheim Hines

‍

R.C. Fischer

FFM

05 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Cowboys 36, Panthers 28

After rewatching this game, if I say that I think Dallas might be one of the few teams to consider as the best team in the NFC – you would not be surprised. But when I say that Carolina isn’t far behind the pack as an NFC top team…that might get a raised eyebrow.

Let me begin with Carolina: That’s a top 5 or so defense in the NFL, maybe top 3 and…gulp…Sam Darnold is playing pretty good football. He’s not as good as the analysts think but he’s not as bad (in 2021) as I had already banished him to be. I always see him as an ‘F’. THEY think he’s a B+. He’s probably in the C-/D+ range…but that’s not an ‘F’. Big difference for Carolina in NFL terms.

The reason Carolina took the early lead (14-13 at the half) was because Darnold was playing solid football. The reason Carolina gave up 20 points in the 3rd-quarter and started getting blown out was because of Darnold…when the pressure is on, Darnold starts misfiring and is prone to turnover…and that’s what happened here. But then it was Darnold helping lead a 4th-quarter charge to try and get back into it.

Darnold is making progress, but he’s never going to be as good as they all thought. He’s about a step ahead of Taylor Heinicke’s style/ability. But that’s better than Darnold has been before. This is a good-to-great coaching staff with a getting servable O-Line…and a top-notch defense. It’s a good team that was minus their best offensive player and came out of the gates taking control of the game over Dallas (by a little bit).

Dallas had to play some ball to stay with Carolina at first, and then to put the hammer down in the 3rd-quarter. And then got a bit sloppy/lazy, thinking they had it in the bag up 22 just into the 4th-quarter…and Carolina slipped back in and cut it to a one score game…but then Dallas put Carolina to sleep and ran out the clock.

It was two ‘wins’ here…two ‘tells’ to me.

Dallas won the game and won over my heart some more -- further convincing me they are one of the top 3 teams in the NFC…if not the best team in the NFC…and in the running for the best team in football with a little more development. O-C Kellen Moore is calling (arguably) the best offensive games in the league, and D-C Dan Quinn has changed this defense – a collection of young talent that is only going to get better is finally living up to the collection of talent they had. Obviously, they have a Super Bowl caliber QB.

Carolina got a ‘win’ here as well… I thought they’d get smashed when the schedule turned difficult, starting Week 4, especially without CMC. But they held their own. They played just as tough as Dallas…but the Cowboys are just better because they are better at QB. Carolina ‘won’ me over – they have turned a corner. They are a playoff level team. They can hang with Sam Darnold. They aren’t going to be elite with Darnold, but they can win some games with Darnold and all the other quality surroundings…especially a defense that can possibly be a best-in-football type unit.

Dallas taking punches early and then stepping on Carolina to take control of the game – it was a real picture of good-to-great football by a well-coached/executing team. Credit Mike McCarthy, even if he’s just riding the O-C and D-C coattails.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Sam Darnold (26-39 for 301 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs, 6-35-2) is putting up nice FF numbers. I mocked them and ignored them as ‘matchup based’ fluff the first 3 weeks, but he’s taking a bit of a turn to not-incompetent. I still think he’s one of the 5 or so worst QBs in the NFL, but no longer do I feel he’s the possible worst.

And this cat is running too… Five rushing TDs so far this season? I mean, that can be just dumb luck…and it is to some degree, so many TDs in such a short span – but I was surprised just how quick Darnold is. The classic ‘sneaky quick’. He looks leaned up and unafraid to run.  

Kudos to Sam.

Is he viable for FF? I guess, kinda…if he’s going to run for a TD and throw for 300+ yards every game (has three 300+ passing games in a row). No. But I do think he’ll fall back to earth some, as defenses get used to him in his new environment.

If no rushing TDs…then no interest in Sam unless it’s a perfect matchup and I’m desperate.

 -- As Darnold settles in, it's been clear D.J. Moore (8-113-2/12) is his main target…no one else is even close. Moore got two, let’s say ‘lucky’ TDs in the garbage-ish time comeback but Moore also almost had a TD the first scoring drive of the game.

I worry Darnold will tail off ahead in output…he almost has to. His numbers are ahead of his skills, improved as they may be. Teams are going to try and clamp down on Moore…it’s the way you have to play this passing game, so if the QB tails off and the coverage amps up…I don’t think Moore can sustain as a WR1, but I’m not radically against it like I would have been a few weeks ago.

Moore’s numbers jumped another notch when CMC went out…when he returns, we’ll see if DJM holds up at the high level. If you fear Darnold…the coverage…and CMC returning as pressure on DJM’s current output – this week is the time to sell high. Not dump at all costs, but make it pay off. Moore won’t become a WR3 all of a sudden, but I think he’s a #15-20 WR1.5-2.0 here more than a top 5 WR1. Don’t sell it cheap, if you do/try.

 -- OK, I’ve turned more positive on Darnold and Moore. My first time ever for both. I have been against them for FF for years -- Darnold on my CFM scouting, and Moore on the situation tied to Darnold or Cam). I want to go back to being cranky and celebrating calling players shortfalls against the mainstream notion. So, let’s discuss Chuba Hubbard (13-57-0)…

Dang it!! I mocked him this week too (and I was right to say he would not produce like everyone thought), but he actually played pretty well here. Definitely the best of the three RBs for Carolina. Hubbard was very quick and shifty with the ball. Best I’ve seen him look as a pro in his short stint to date.

I thought Royce Freeman (3-15-0) would show Chuba up with his experience, but Royce looks like he got shot with a tranquilizer dart…he was slow and plodding. Definitely not the Freeman I remember, or thought would outshine Hubbard. My bad. Royce looks cooked for the NFL. No more ‘deep sleeper’ discussion on him until further notice.

Rodney Smith (5-48-0/5) played the 3rd-down back role, and he was in the game quickly. Note to self/everyone…when CMC is out, Carolina’s plan is Hubbard as the lead, and Smith as the 3rd-down back and hurry up offense guy. Meaning they both have little value for FF splitting touches as mediocre talents. Neither is the next CMC.

 -- OK, the 3 first notes were about me being wrong about 2021 stuff. I need to get a ‘win’ myself and get back on track. So, Dalton Schultz (6-58-1/8) is now a solid TE1. Dammit…foiled again!!

In the preseason, I thought Blake Jarwin (1-18-0/1) would be the lead in a split with Schultz. Instead, Schultz is the lead in a split and Schultz is pulling away as the main target for Dak…

The last three weeks of targeting for Dallas:

17 = Schultz

17 = Lamb

12 = Amari

Schultz has more catches and rec. TDs than any Cowboy the past 3 weeks…and nearly the most rec. yards.

Can it keep up?

I don’t see why not…three of his first 4 games, Schultz has 6 catches in a game…it’s consistently happening. He also had his hands on a TD early but it got knocked away by the DB. I’m a believer until he shows me that I shouldn’t be. Fading off from here wouldn’t shock me, but I’ll ride the ride ‘til it’s over.

 -- One of the mild concerns for Schultz (and all the receivers) is Dak Prescott (14-22 for 188 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT, 4-35-0) is not throwing a lot at all…doesn’t need to. The offense is efficiently running and sometimes passing over opponents. 27-26-22 for pass attempts the last 3 games for Dak. 237-238-188 passing yards in those three games. Not a QB1.

Dak’s drop in passing needs is going to hurt Amari and CeeDee’s FF-upside. And I don’t know why Dallas would switch off it…they are winning by controlling the ground and smart passing game.

Three out of 4 weeks/cards dealt so far this season and Dak has been way down in passing volume, and taken Amari/Lamb with him…while Schultz is the winner/rising amidst it all. That’s the trend.

But good news – Dak looked very good as a runner here. 35 yards rushing this game and he looked strong and quick.

 -- Two minor Carolina offensive notes…

1) Ross Jacobs was right a couple of weeks ago: Brandon Zylstra (2-63-0/2) is better than Terrace Marshall (1-2-0/3). It doesn’t matter much for FF, because this is the D.J. Moore show…but so many are seeing Marshall as some great sleeper. Ahh, no. Not in 2021…not yet for sure…no signs of it.

2) Dan Arnold traded away sprung Ian Thomas (3-15-0/3) to more snaps/touches had ditto Tommy Tremble (0-0-0/1) but there’s nothing here for FF. Tremble someday will be FF-sneaky but no signs yet.

 -- This Carolina defense…so good. Getting C.J. Henderson (3 tackles) from JAX was huge. But I forgot A.J. Bouye (3 tackles) is back as well. Henderson-Bouye-Donte Jackson (1 tackle, 1 PD) is one of the best CB trios in football.

Carolina’s front seven is really good/potentially great too. This defense has the makings of not only a top 3-5…but THE BEST in football. It’s a better version of the Saints, and I’m not disrespecting the Saints-D.

The schedule ahead is choppy for CAR-DST but that’s true of most every DST. Weeks 7-12 could be hot: NYG-ATL-NE-ARI-WSH-MIA (except ARI).

 -- Theis Dallas defense is not joke either. A few more flaws than Carolina (like their CBs aside from Trevon Diggs) but when they get Demarcus Lawrence back in the 2nd-half of the season…this is a tough defense. If they can find another upgrade at corner as well, it could be a top 10 NFL defense.

Demarcus Lawrence could be back for the nice schedule pop late in the season for Dallas: Weeks 13-16 with NO-WSH-NYG-WSH.

Snap Counts of Interest:

49 = Lamb

48 = Schultz

35 = C Wilson

33 = Jarwin

29 = Amari

46 = Zeke

18 = Pollard

44 = Ian T.

27 = Tremble

50 = Terrace Marshall

13 = Zylstra

33 = Hubbard

26 = Rodney Smith

12 = Royce Freeman

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

04 October 2021

Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

04 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Bengals 24, Jaguars 21

Well, the Jaguars tried. They were up 14-0 at one point after taking it to Cincy early, but the Bengals fought back to tie the game up. At that point the Jaguars were reeling, but they buckled down and scored again to take a 7 point lead. It was not to be though. Cincy responded again with the tying TD and then kicked the last second field goal for the win.

It was a gutsy win for the finally respectable Bengals and a devastating loss for the downtrodden Jaguars.

Cincinnati isn't exactly a good team yet, but they are moving in the right direction. The offense is starting to put some drives together and the defense is no longer a complete pushover like they have been for so many years. I doubt they crack .500 this year, but a 7-10 or 8-9 season might be within reach. If they can continue building around Burrow during the 2022 off-season, this team might actually be in the playoff hunt next year. They still need more offensive linemen and more help on defense, but there's finally some hope for the Bungles.

Poor Jacksonville. They finally showed some spine here and nearly pulled off the win, but ran out of gas at the finish line. Perhaps if they still had Gardner Minshew, Joe Schobert, and CJ Henderson they could have gotten it done. Unfortunately the mastermind known as Urban Meyer rid his team of arguably their three best players, and this is the consequence. It doesn't matter how much heart and effort your team puts in if they aren't also talented. Maybe Meyer can gut his way through a terrible year and start the rebuild next year, but this has been an inauspicious start to his NFL career. Jacksonville is clearly headed for a bad year. If they get to 4 or 5 wins it's going to be a minor miracle. This just isn't a good team on either side of the ball.

It doesn't help matters that Meyer is once again embroiled in controversy after he was allegedly spotted at a restaurant he owns in Ohio with a younger woman that was not his wife. It's just the latest in a string of missteps for Meyer who can't seem to get out of his own way. We'll see if he survives this latest drama, but it's not looking good for him so far.

Fantasy Notes

--Joe Burrow (25-32 for 348, 2 TD/0 INT, 3-4-0) put up a nice stat line here, but something still seems off with him. I can't put my finger on it. Last year you could see in an instant, even with much worse surroundings, that Burrow was talented. He just had this assassin feel where he could carve up a defense with perfect pass after perfect pass. This year it's missing. I don't know if it's his knee, or in his head, or what, but I'm absolutely convinced he's not himself right now. Will we ever get the old Burrow back? Maybe. I don't know. I hope so. But right now he's not in the same league as his fellow 2020 1st rounder Justin Herbert.

--Another year of a billion touches for Joe Mixon (16-67-1, 1-0-0/2) with not much to show for it. Mixon is incredibly talented for sure and he dominates the backfield, but none of that matters if there's nowhere to run. If you have him you just have to hang in there and hope things open up at some point. I don't see why they would however. I'll say it again, they should have drafted Penei Sewell over...

--Ja'Marr Chase (6-77-0/9). I still don't see it. He catches 4 random TD's his first three games and most analysts fall all over themselves proclaiming his greatness. The announcers did it again here, waxing poetic as he caught basic slant passes against a prevent defense, acting like he's the best rookie receiver they've ever seen even as he gets completely shown up by his much less heralded teammate Tyler Boyd (9-118-0/11), who the team didn't waste a top 5 pick on.

Chase isn't special. Rondale Moore is a thousand times the weapon that Chase is, but the media has already decided Chase is the greatest so they're going to jam it down our throats for the next 10 years despite all the evidence to the contrary. Six catches for 77 yards against one of the worst secondaries in football isn't impressive. Chase is the 3rd best receiver, at best, on his own team, and the only reason he got 9 targets here is because Tee Higgins was out for the game.

You can probably continue to use him decently enough for fantasy because his buddy Burrow is going to force him the ball, but I wouldn't expect to keep getting TD's at the rate he has been. There's just nothing flashing here so far. Chase is a decent receiver in a decent offense, and he's not even the overwhelming top option, just another good one among many. If you have him I would trade him hot right now while everyone else thinks he's some great WR1. The fun times likely aren't going to last.

--I already mentioned Tyler Boyd and how good he is. If you've been with RC for a while you already know this. Boyd is a better receiver than Chase for sure, and yet he'll get absolutely no credit for his performance here and 100/100 analysts not with FFM will tell you Chase is the better player. Unfortunately, while Boyd should be getting this treatment every week, you can't count on it. Boyd will likely remain a random WR2-3 once Higgins comes back.

--I guess CJ Uzomah (5-95-2/6) is the newest flavor-of-the-week TE that everyone will chase on waivers. Someone will start him and he'll put up 3-26-0 next week and be right back on waivers. There's nothing popping with him. It was just one of those random games guys sometimes get. He's a decent enough player, but he's the 5th option on this team.

--Trevor Lawrence (17-24 for 204, 0 TD/0 INT, 8-36-1) is getting better by the week. That doesn't mean run out and grab him off waivers, but just something to keep in mind. He's still very limited and doesn't work well down the field. His offensive line protection is allowing him time to scan the field and make smart throws though. If the protection ever breaks down he'll be back to turning it over 3-4 times a game.

--Hope you bought low on James Robinson (17-78-2, 1-(-2)-0/2) last week like RC advised. The door has slammed shut now. Robinson is the for sure lead back here over Hyde and the best option this offense has for moving the ball. He looks like a back end RB1 the rest of the schedule.

--Laviska Shenault (6-99-0/7) was the WR winner of the week here. He didn't do anything particularly special. He's still mostly a bubble screen guy but got a few shots down the field that he normally doesn't. Maybe the Jags try to work that in more, but honestly Shenault looked uncomfortable working down the field as a real WR. There's a reason he's the screens and drags guy.

--DJ Chark went down on the 3rd play of the game and his season is likely over with an ankle fracture.

The receiver I recommend trying to grab in the wake of the Chark injury is Marvin Jones (3-24-0/3). He's always been the preferred option for Lawrence, and now he should get all of the medium-deep work, especially now that the offensive line is allowing Lawrence more time to throw. Jones could be a really sneaky WR1.5 option ahead, so if you can get him as a throw-in on another deal I would do so. This is the spot to do it to as he just had a bad game and everyone is bashing the Jags for being 0-4.

--Dan Arnold (2-29-0/2) could be the other winner of the Chark injury. He was already getting involved in the offense here despite just arriving via trade, and he's clearly one of their best pass catchers. If you're dying at TE then Arnold is possibly the best chance at solid points available on most waiver wires right now. It's hard to expect it to pop right away considering he was rotating in with several other TE's, but it was his first week with the team, and the fact that he's already doing this after specifically being traded for suggests to me that they intend to get him more work. It's a speculation grab for sure, but again, if you're dying at TE it's a decent option.

--Tavon Austin (1-8-0/3) will replace Chark in 3 WR sets, but there's no point grabbing him for fantasy. Chark is a way better receiver and wasn't producing in this offense. What makes you think Austin will suddenly become fantasy relevant?

IDP Notes

--Logan Wilson (10 tackles, 1 sack) is having a fantastic year so far. His 4 games this year have produced, 7, 9, 14, and 10 tackles (10 tackles per game). If he keeps this up he's got a chance at leading the league.

--Rookie CB Tyson Campbell (8 tackles, 1 tfl) has 8 tackles each of the last two games as his snap counts have risen. He's allowing a lot of short catches, but that works for fantasy. He's an athlete but definitely still learning to play the position. Doesn't look as bad as I feared he might though. He's tough to beat deep due to his speed.

Snap Counts of Interest

52 = Marvin Jones

42 = Laviska Shenault

41 = Tavon Austin

24 = Chris Manhertz

18 = Dan Arnold

16 = Luke Farrell

11 = Jacob Hollister

R.C. Fischer

FFM

01 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Broncos 26, Jets 0

Before the game you were probably thinking…the Broncos will likely play a controlled, safe, steady game and just methodically roll over the Jets – Denver just needed to get the lead and then just let the Jets flail away, and Denver occasionally capitalize on the gifts of good field position.

And what really happened in this game was… The Broncos played a controlled, safe, steady game and just methodically rolled over the Jets – Denver got the lead and then just let the Jets flail away, as Denver occasionally capitalized on the gifts of good field position.

This was never a game. The Jets have the worst offense in the NFL…the worst O-Line (along with PIT) …5 sacks, 9 QB hits…and no run game and the worst WR group in the NFL. They will win a game before too long because one of these times they will face a weak pass rush team and catch a break, and they have a top 10 NFL defense…but boy are they painful to watch on offense.

Denver jumps to (3-0) out of the gates, as we modeled could/would happen due to a fortuitous schedule. If they can just go (7-7) from here, they will win 10 games and make the playoffs. Their schedule ahead is more difficult (how could it not be?) but is not daunting until after a Week 11 BYE where in a 7-game span they play LAC and KC 4 times. They should get to 10 wins and sneak into the playoffs, but The Computer’s data is flashing warnings on Denver – that there are issues being hidden by a very easy schedule (NYG-JAX-NYJ…teams a combined 0-10 as I write this).

This game went about exactly as everyone thought, so not a ton of player notes.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Another week, another Zach Wilson (19-35 for 160 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) looks bad event. Because everything is about the QB and/or who won last week for the fans/analysts, so everyone in football is up in arms calling Wilson a bust. They want him to be a bust, so they are going to try to speak it into existence. It’s the cool thing to do among the media elites…and the football plebes (fans) take their cues from their overlord media.

The talking point for them this week is – Justin Fields’s Week 3 disaster is Matt Nagy’s fault…because THEY like Fields. He’s THEIR guy. So, it can’t be his fault. However, they don’t like Wilson…so this is all his fault.

The correct answer is – it’s neither QB’s fault. They’re thrown into the NFL arena with bad O-Lines and are under constant pressure to do anything.

When Fields was dying Week 3…he just took it. It’s a me-first guy worried about his stats ( my opinion). He won’t throw the ball under pressure. He’ll eat the sack.

Wilson doesn’t care…he’s trying to make plays on 3rd and long, or 4th-down. He’s trying to make something happen against all odss/pressures. He should just check down more to pad his numbers and get everyone off his back, and he did that more here but between RBs dropping the passes or the WRs dropping passes/not getting open with max pressure on al most every snap…what’s Wilson to do? Wilson had 100+ yards and a potential TD pass left on the field with drops.

Corey Davis (5-41-0/1) as your #1 WR…is the crime of the century. Oh, Zach don’t worry…we got Ryan Griffin (1-5-0/1) and Tyler Kroft (2-12-0/2) to help you as TE ‘weapons’.

Wilson’s two best WRs seem to be Braxton Berrios and Keelan Cole, so of course we get Corey Davis and Elijah Moore starting/see the most targets. His best WR is really Denzel Mims…not even active.

If Matt Nagy is killing Justin Fields…then what is Robert Saleh doing to Zach Wilson? How is Mims not even active? You mean hiring your best friend's brother to 1st-time coordinate an offense in the NFL isn’t working 3 weeks in against three top 10 NFL defenses (CAR-NE-DEN)…I’m shocked!

I’ll buy all your Zach Wilson in Dynasty for 2022 and beyond…for pennies on the dollar now. But my QB room is pretty salty already in most cases, so…not a great need. I’ll buy only to make you bleed for it…virtually give me it for nothing.

 -- Michael Carter (9-24-0, 2-5-0/3) is now just ‘the man’ for NYJ at RB, I guess. They went the whole summer gearing up for Tevin Coleman…and two weeks in that’s done and Carter is the man, for now.

Wilson tried to use him as a checkdown weapon some, but not enough. Wilson hit him for a sweet 10+ yard pass in stride that might have gone for 20-50+ yards, but Carter dropped it. Those things happen.

Main takeaway…it’s Carter’s backfield for now. That’s FF-worth something.

 -- The Broncos played very vanilla and just sat on the Jets…so no high-flying passing game numbers. Courtland Sutton (5-37-0/5) caught everything thrown his way, just low targets. He had a TD shot but fell 1-yard short. Ditto Tim Patrick (5-98-0/5).

 -- The typical backfield split again for Denver…

Melvin Gordon (18-60-1, 1-21-0/2) starts, but Javonte Williams (12-29-1, 3-33-0/4) was in quickly, and they shared touches. Gordon had a chance for a second TD halted by the Jets near the goal line. Javonte had two more TDs halted from short range.

That Jets defense never surrenders…they stopped so many plays from short distances in this game. This defense is terrific but no support from the offense to make them FF-viable.

Snap Counts of Interest:

58 = Fant

51 = Sutton

51 = Patrick

36 = Gordon

27 = Javonte

31 = Ty Johnson

23 = M Carter

51 = C Davis

42 = Berrios

27 = Cole

26 = E Moore

R.C. Fischer

FFM

01 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Bills 43, Football Team 21

I thought, after watching it live, that this game study would be a run of the mill Buffalo Bills beatdown with limited ‘fresh’ notes, but I may have more notes on this game than any from this week!

The game itself = never close, really.

Buffalo jumped out to a 21-0 lead, quickly. Washington got that wonderful long screen pass TD by Antonio Gibson to close it to 21-7…then WFT recovered a weird trick kickoff in the Buffalo red zone, and scored a TD soon after to make it 21-14. The F. Team got the ball back again after stopping Buffalo and had a chance to tie it, but Buffalo was done fooling around and just hammered Washington the rest of the way.

It was never close. There was like 5+ minutes of good fortune for Washington and then the Bills exercised their will for the other 55 minutes…maybe not all 55 minutes, they pulled starters/put in backups late in the game it was so bad a beating.

It’s early to say this, but my (way too…ugg, I hate that label) early call is: The Buffalo Bills are the best all-around team in football. I’d say it’s a Bills-Rams Super Bowl today, but there are several contenders to knock off the Rams in the NFC…so, that part is tentative. If Buffalo gets the #1 seed over the Chargers or Chiefs, then that will be the difference in getting the Bills over.

What’s wrong with Washington? I don’t know. This defense has totally collapsed…seemingly. An emerging unit 2nd-half of last season that added several pieces to it this offseason…and now is going backwards. Consider that I just mentioned Buffalo as the best team in football and to the Super Bowl, IF they get home field over the Chargers. Well, Washington has faced both LAC and BUF in the first three weeks…that’s not helping their data trends and win-loss. They also gave up 29 points to NYG Week 2, but that was a little fortuitous for NYG…Washington’s defense played pretty well there, but penalties reversed several 3rd-down stops and gave NYG many extra chances. We’ll discuss the WSH-DST in a bit.

If Washington goes out and beats Atlanta this week, then they are (2-2) and they are still in the NFC East race. Losing to LAC and BUF is not a crime in the first 3 weeks of the season…and they held down LAC Week 1 (to some degree)/shoulda won, really. They need Ryan Fitzpatrick back…but not sure when/if that will happen. Ron Rivera is not the best coach in football, and he’s attached to Taylor Heinicke like Sean McVay is to Matt Stafford…and Heinicke is no Matt Stafford.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I completely missed the following in live watch: I knew J.D. McKissic (3-23-0, 2-15-0/2) started this game, that’s a touch unnerving if you own Antonio Gibson (12-31-0, 1-73-1/2), but that happens sometimes for a snap as teams try something to throw off the opposing defense. However, what I didn’t realize is…Antonio Gibson never played in the 1st series. Gibson did start the 2nd-series.

I wasn’t alone in missing this…

I watched Ron Rivera’s post-game 10-minute press conference and his 20-minute midweek press conference. 30 minutes of questions from reporters. Here’s what was asked/talked about the most…

Probably about 15+ minutes on why Washington sucks, especially on defense (asked in polite ways)

Probably about 10+ minutes on what Taylor Heinicke needs to do to get better.

Probably about 4-5 minutes on the pass rush problems.

0 minutes and 0 seconds on J.D. McKissic starting the first 5 offensive plays of the game/Gibson on the bench/sidelines.

The first 5 offensive plays of the game for Washington, all J.D. McKissic. Gibson is Washington’s bell cow RB? I don’t think so. Something has happened.

Well…AG has been banged up; they’re managing him! Well, why did he even play then? He did go on to have 14 touches in the game…so what’s being managed? They could’ve started him and switched him in and out with JDM if they wanted to manage his reps. No, this was a message – something is up with Gibson and Rivera. Is it just a one week message?

Could be he’s not practicing hard enough, and Gibson went out and responded this game (he played well) and everything will be fine from here. Maybe. After Gibson scored that long TD, then we saw Gibson more but McKissic in plenty. Gibson 31 snaps, McKissic 25 snaps.

Could be Rivera doesn’t like the offense with Gibson as much as he does McKissic? Odd, but defenses stack Gibson because they’re not afraid of Heinicke…a la Jonathan Taylor getting stacked and Nyheim Hines coming in looking better – it’s because the defenses change the way they play depending upon what they are trying to shut down.

I’m really not sure what it is…but it’s not nothing with Gibson not even in for any play on the first series. It would worry the hell out of me as a Gibson owner.

I would also consider picking up McKissic in PPR, if it makes sense for your depth chart/roster.

If Gibson did not make that amazing 73-yard catch and run TD on the 3rd-series, I don’t know how much he would have played compared to McKissic from there…Gibson stayed in more after that. I also know, there would have been WORLDWIDE Gibson panic without that long TD because without that it would have made three FF dud games in a row with no end in sight in this offense. That TD saved his current FF value and saved him from the Fantasy world turning on him (for now).

This might be the window to trade out of this thing (Gibson) in redraft. Sell while the selling is good. He may be fine from here, he looks fine to me, but something isn’t right…at least not in Week 3. It’s a bad offense and he’s the focus of the defense.

*Also, he has an injured shin on top of any other issues he has going into Week 4…we’ll see how effective he is, or if he’s active on Sunday.

 -- Speaking of three FF duds to start a season, Stefon Diggs (6-62-0/10) had another ho-hum FF-game. One of the top guys in 2020, not even a WR2 scorer in 2021 so far.

I’ll buy all your shares, but I’m not going too crazy to do it. But I’m happy to swipe from you in a panic.

Diggs just missed out on three 30+ yard plays here, one for a TD. This was nearly 8-9 catches for 130+ yards and a TD…and everything is fine. Josh Allen missed him wide open on one throw…sailed over his head. Diggs had one TD on his hands, but tight/PI type coverage disconnected the bomb TD. Diggs had another easy back shoulder opportunity, but Diggs went deep as Allen threw to his back shoulder.

All is fine enough here.

What happened this game was – Diggs was doubled a lot. Off the snap, the safety rolled right over to Diggs…so, Allen went elsewhere. Even with that doubling this could’ve been a monster game for Diggs if 1-2-3 of those big throws connects. When they went single coverage, Allen went right at Diggs.

I can hear it now…

Washington D-C: We were NOT going to let Stefon Diggs beat us! And he didn’t!

Me: But you gave up 43 points and Allen threw for 358 yards and 4 TDs while allowing nearly 500 yards of offense?

Washington D-C: Yeah, but Diggs didn’t beat us. So, mission accomplished.

Diggs is fine. Go get him while he’s down. Current owners are likely scared -- he’s a WR1.5 value to them in a panic to sell off/for you to buy.

With Diggs covered/doubled, Allen will go off with everyone else…

Cole Beasley (11-98-0/13) is a WR2-3 in PPR, as always.

Emmanuel Sanders (5-94-2/6) is more WR3 than WR2, but he’ll have big weeks and quiet weeks depending upon the Diggs coverage.

Dawson Knox (4-49-1/5) is becoming a back-end TE1 on TD volume.

Oh, and Josh Allen is still great. Why did you worry?

 -- I’d look to sell Terry McLaurin (4-62-0/7) hot. You can’t afford to wait weeks for Ryan Fitz to return (IF) and boost TML. You don’t dump McLaurin, you trade upwards – people very much believe McLaurin is a WR1 all day, and he might be – but this offense is dreadful and the WRs aside from McLaurin are a joke. Weeks 5-11 a number of top CBs going on McLaurin.

Will Curtis Samuel returning help? Maybe, but Samuel may not be back right for weeks…and then CSam is an easier, comfortable throw for Heinicke…some targets away from McLaurin. McLaurin is more difficult, downfield with limited time to wait for the route to develop type of throw…not good for Heinicke.

McLaurin isn’t a bust to dump…he’s just a sell higher move.

 -- Logan Thomas (4-42-1/4) is doing fine, he’s just stuck in a rough offense – and all these Washington guys facing Buffalo, of course they’re gonna struggle. LAC-NYG-BUF is probably the worst/toughest schedule any offense has faced to start 2021.

They get a break Week 4 at ATL, but then NO-KC-GB-DEN-BYE-TB-CAR…all with Heinicke most likely. It’s a tough upstream battle for upside production.

  -- The Bills are running the ball well enough, because teams want them to run versus getting blistered by them through the air.

So, Zack Moss (13-60-0, 3-31-1/3) can produce numbers in these high scoring blowouts. Devin Singletary (11-26-0, 1-0-0/2) is still the starter, but Buffalo games get out of hand quickly and they mix and match the RBs, and let Moss take more work in the cakewalk.

When the games are tighter, you’ll see less of Moss and more of Singletary…but are Buffalo games going to be tight that often?

 -- Watch for the Washington-DST to have a bounce back Week 4 at ATL, which then gives a decent outlook to their Week 5 vs. NO. Then you bail…Weeks 6-7 KC and GB. Week 9 BYE. Week 10 Brady. Week 12 Russell.

FYI, Cole Holcomb (15 tackles, 1 TFL) is #2 in the NFL in solo tackles. #4 in total tackles. I know what I’m doing in scouting…it just took a couple years to kick in, that’s all.

 -- Most of you reading this have Denver-DST or Buffalo-DST- since day one and are still enjoying the fruits of that labor (or started with WSH-DST and since moved into ARI-DST among other things).

Two things about the Bills-DST for owners:

1) Buffalo is arguably the best pure defense in the NFL. It’s between BUF and ARI, for me…but probably BUF because of coaching.

2) Make sure you have a plan for Buffalo-DST’s Weeks 5 (KC) and 7 (BYE)…and you’re pretty much fine from there.

ARI-DST has CLE and HOU those two weeks…it works. Versus CLE not awesome, but not bad.

CAR-DST has PHI and NYG, which is nice.

Snap Counts of Interest:

62 = Knox (this is jumping way up from norms the past 2 weeks)

14 = Sweeney

63 = Emm Sanders

59 = Diggs

52 = Beasley

23 = Gabe Davis

44 = Moss

34 = Devin

52 = McLaurin

35 = Dyami

34 = Humphries

20 = Cam Sims

31 = Gibson

25 = McKissic

Ross Jacobs

FFM

01 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Cowboys 41, Eagles 21 

This was an old-fashioned beatdown by the Cowboys. It really wasn't even as close as the final score suggests. One of the Eagles scores was a sack strip for a TD by the defense. After that Dallas took complete control and were up by 4 scores near the end before Philly scored one last garbage time TD.

So it's very obvious that the Eagles got dramatically overrated after beating down the hapless Falcons, but the real question is: how good are the Cowboys?

They lost a close one to the Bucs, won a close hard fought game against a suddenly strong looking young Chargers team, and now they've demolished the Eagles. Personally, I think Dallas is the easy favorite to win the NFC East now, as most people agree, but I don't think they are one of the best teams in the NFC (as many people think)...yet...

There's certainly potential here. They have a great offense that is defying expectations by being very well coached. One of the concerns coming into the year was that McCarthy was a stiff, boring old coach with no creativity left. Well, he's still that but offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is not and he's putting together some fantastic game plans on offense. McCarthy will get all the credit, but we know where this is coming from.

On defense they have started to flash some real chops after struggling with the Bucs week 1. They gave up a lot of yards to a potent Chargers attack but mostly held them out of the end zone, and of course they smacked the Eagles around here. I think a lot of people are overrating this group right now though because they aren't factoring in how bad/injured the Philly offensive line is. The game plan by Nick Sirianni also wasn't great as he continued to try and attack Dallas the same way he did Atlanta (probably because it worked so well week 1). Unfortunately for him, Dallas has the horses on defense to combat that short, quick passing game. You have to attack the Dallas secondary deep and the Eagles didn't even attempt it despite Dallas jumping all the short routes early. The Cowboys will have much stronger opponents coming soon and I doubt the defense is going to look quite so good then.

**RC Note: I would note that the DAL defense is OK/good/mediocre. Not bad. Not great. But decent, improving. But the next 3 weeks is an OK defense with a nice offense to control possession facing CAR without CMC, NYG, and NE...three nice DST matchups. **

If my assessment is correct then they are probably a 10-11 game winner, should take the East and a #3 or #4 seed. They have a shot if everything goes right, but I still think they are just a couple players short of being a real power and Superbowl threat.

Fantasy Notes

--Let's start with Jalen Hurts (25-39 for 326, 2 TD/2 INT, 9-35-0). A lot of you are probably panicking right now because he got a slow start here, looked shaky at times, threw a couple of picks...stop it. Hurts is averaging 23.7 ppg or thereabouts, depending on your scoring system, and is the #3 or #4 QB right now. In his four starts in 2020 he averaged 23 ppg. There is nothing to worry about!

It's easy to forget, but fantasy is not the same thing as real football. Players can be great for one and not the other. Hurts is a good real life QB, but that's not what ultimately matters for us. What matters is he's scoring points and he's doing it under crap circumstances. So it doesn't matter one bit if he gets all his points in garbage time as his team is getting blown out. What matters is he's scoring. That's it.

As for his real life skills, yeah, he's just fine. He was dealing with having half his offensive line out, a bad game plan, a billion penalties putting him in long down situations, and receivers dropping passes all over the place. He wasn't perfect but who is? Even Patrick Mahomes throws stupid interceptions at times. It happens. There's nothing wrong with Hurts. He played his ass off here and looks just fine.

--It's hard to use any Philly pass catcher with any consistency for fantasy, but if I was going to it would be DeVonta Smith (3-28-0/6). He's still getting his legs under him (and he's battling a lot of the same issues Hurts is), but I expect him to improve as the season goes on. He played a good emerging corner in Trevon Diggs, but if Sirianni had just called for a double move or two Smith could have smoked Diggs more than once. Unfortunately all he got to run was short slants literally all night and, unsurprisingly, Diggs figured this out and started jumping every route.

--Jalen Reagor (5-53-0/8) has been way more involved than I thought and looks pretty good. I haven't seen any flashes of the speed he's supposed to possess, but again, this coaching staff hasn't even tried to use him on any deep or medium passes. It's all short stuff so far. He's unusable for fantasy right now but could suddenly find some WR3 use if this offense ever opens up.

--The best looking WR for Philly so far has been Quez Watkins (2-46-0/2). Unlike Reagor, Watkins has flashed his speed at times on bubble screens. I'd like to see them get him the ball more. He definitely belongs as the 3rd guy, but they ought to get him a few more looks than he's been getting.

--Dallas Goedert (2-66-0/4) is their best TE but he's still splitting too much with Zach Ertz (4-53-1/7). They really should have come off their asking price and just traded Ertz for what they could get. Goedert will have his moments but there's no predicting what games that will be. If Ertz gets hurt though it could be game on.

--Miles Sanders (2-27-0, 3-28-0/4) had an awful fantasy game, but it's hard to score points when you only get 2 carries. That was a function of the Eagles getting behind so quickly. He should be back to his usual workload soon. Not sure that's worth much, but then you shouldn't have him rostered anyways.

--Everyone was so excited after Dak Prescott (21-26 for 238 yards, 3 TD/0 INT, 9-6-0) threw for over 400 yards against Tampa, and the logic went like this: well, if Dak threw for 400 yards every game before he got hurt in 2020, and he threw for 400 yards here, then he must be going to throw for 400 yards every game! Fantasy for most people is only what happened the past 2-3 games and sometimes less.

Of course, now he's gone two straight games with under 30 attempts (you didn't really think he was going to throw 58 times every game did you?) and less than 250 yards and people are suddenly panicking. But Ross, what if he does this EVERY game? Take a deep breath. Everything is going to be ok. Dallas is adapting their game plan to attack the weakness of whatever the defense is doing. It's going to lead to a few weeks where Dak doesn't score a billion points. It's also going to lead to a few games where he goes crazy passing and wins you your matchup by himself.

--As Dak goes, so goes Amari Cooper (3-26-0/4) and CeeDee Lamb (3-66-0/3). Again, don't worry about them. It's been a slow couple of weeks for Amari, but he's going to get his. He's averaging 8.7 targets per game right now, a full season pace of 147 targets. He's fine. I also didn't see any lingering effects from his rib injury. He's moving around well and looks fully healthy. In fact, he's a great buy low candidate right now if you can find a nervous owner. He's a WR1-1.5 all day long.

Lamb has only had the one bad game so far, but everything I said about Amari goes for him as well.

--Ezekiel Elliott (17-95-2, 3-21-0/3) has a lot of nervous owners as well, and this one I understand a little better. Tony Pollard (11-60-0, 1-5-0/1) has been a lot more involved than past years and looks quite good. The thinking is that they are in a split and Zeke is no longer a workhorse, therefore you need to sell off as fast as you can.

Pump the breaks on that a little. Let's get some context on what's going on here.

Here's the snap counts for each player through 3 weeks:

Week 1: Zeke 70, Pollard 20

Week 2: Zeke 44, Pollard 21

Week 3: Zeke 54, Pollard 29

And their number of touches:

Week 1: Zeke 11 carries, 2 catches, Pollard 3 carries, 4 catches

Week 2: Zeke 16 carries, 2 catches, Pollard 13 carries, 3 catches

Week 3: Zeke 17 carries, 3 catches, Pollard 11 carries, 1 catch

Elliott is still on the field 65-70 percent of the time, and in the week where the Cowboys barely ran the ball it was Zeke taking the lion's share of the carries. These past two weeks Pollard has gotten over 10 carries each time, but Zeke still got 16+ carries and he's been much more efficient with them than he has in years past. He averaged 8.4 ypc against the Chargers and 5.5 ypc against the Eagles. He also has 3 TD's to Pollard's 1.

Zeke is an RB1 all day. Now he's probably not going to lead the league in scoring or be the overall #1, but he's still getting very strong production and is a solid play every single week. There's no threat to his numbers from Pollard. They can co-exist.

--As for Pollard he's suddenly become a viable flex play in certain weeks. I don't think you can plug him in every week just yet, but I think the way to play it is to figure out which defenses Dallas is likely to try their run-heavy approach on and play him against those teams. The pattern so far has been the Cowboys run against two high safety defenses and pass against single high safety defenses, but it's possible that changes as teams begin to adjust to what Dallas is doing.

--Dalton Schultz (6-80-2/7) had himself a huge game out of nowhere, but I don't think you can count on this going forward. He and Blake Jarwin (2-14-0/2) are still splitting snaps. Maybe it was something Kellen Moore was targeting in the Philly defense or maybe just what was available. Let's see if Schultz gets another heavier workload to separate from Jarwin in the offense.

IDP Notes

--RC wasn't kidding about Javon Hargrave (6 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 tfl)! That guy is playing out of his mind right now. He is a huge man just pushing people around, but also has surprising quickness to close the gap to the QB. He was eating Connor Williams alive all game. As a DT he's averaging 6 tackles per game right now to go along with 4 sacks! Those are DPOY type numbers.

--Safety Anthony Harris (14 tackles) has 24 tackles the last two games and LB Alex Singleton (10 tackles) has 29 on the year. Singleton is the most consistent guy for Philly at linebacker.

--Cowboys rookie DT Osa Odighizuwa (4 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 tfl) had a nice game himself but his was more the product of an injured Eagles line than anything else. He's playing well, but I haven't seen anything super amazing yet.

Snap Counts of Interest

54 = Ezekiel Elliott

29 = Tony Pollard

53 = Dalton Schultz

43 = Blake Jarwin

57 = DeVonta Smith

50 = Jalen Reagor

38 = Quez Watkins

34 = Dallas Goedert

30 = Zach Ertz

35 = Miles Sanders

18 = Kenneth Gainwell

R.C. Fischer

FFM

01 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 3: Rams 34, Bucs 24

I will give credit where credit is due – the Rams won this game/earned it…they were the better team. No nuisance about it.

Of all the storylines in the NFL in 2021, the Sean McVay-Matt Stafford 50 Shades of Gray torrid love story is currently my single least favorite. I’m not 100% sure why, but it has completely turned me off on McVay and not got me onboard with Stafford – but credit to them, three weeks in, they are right and I am wrong (so far)…and they are adding extra hot sauce by every announcer regaling us with the story of them meeting on vacation and falling instantly in love, and now here they are with their figurative tongues down each other’s throats every Sunday on my television.

It may be that I just hate love. It may be that I want to watch the world burn, but I think it’s more these announcers/analyst’s telling the story with such whimsy…that they’re so delighted at the McVay-Stafford union – never mind everyone in the league ignored and dismissed Matt Stafford for a decade…now, it’s a quick revision of history/a 180 that they always really loved Stafford…and now Sean McVay is the genius wizard who got to the top of Mt. Stafford first before his buddy Kyle Shanahan did.

Hope Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo feel like total $#!%, because McVay and Shanahan spend their offseason trying to chase a new QB, and then telling us all about it. Next year’s Shanahan-Aaron Rodgers reunion story will be sickening, I’m sure.

And let me say this about the golden boy, Sean McVay -- if you want me to eat healthy on my lunch break, I can respect that. But if you’re pushing me shitty canned soup as the answer – it’s why I can’t fully trust you on this Matt Stafford thing. Don’t yell at me about eating fries if your solution is processed mystery meat and noodles in a saline solution that is still ‘fresh’ 20 years after being canned. Sean McVay, I want you to stop lying to me about food and stop showing up to my party with your arm around Matt Stafford…I get it, you’re (3-0) with him. You’re winning. You’re a genius.

Oh, how I wish McVay sprinted off at halftime in his enthusiasm and tripped over someone and face planted halfway to the locker room.

But that’s just me. https://youtu.be/BbPiIwFOQtU

Stafford was good here. The Rams played with intensity. The Rams D pressured Brady all game and the O-Line kept the pressure off Stafford. The Bucs were OK, but they couldn’t match the intensity and focus and execution of the Rams. I’m sure Bruce Arians has been a joy in this week’s practices…

The Rams face Arizona this week, the winner goes to (4-0) and potentially lays claim to ‘best team in the NFC’. If the Rams win, that’s all we’ll hear…and the season is over (for the analysts), might as well skip to the Rams in the Super Bowl. If the Cardinals win, then it will be still debatable for the media…they are SO locked in on the Rams. Dallas is ‘America’s Team’. The 2021 Rams are ‘The Media’s Team’…and thus I hate them, naturally, for it.

I think the Rams might be the best team in the NFC, but Tampa, Dallas, Arizona, Green Bay and maybe Minnesota (when playing at home) are in that discussion as well. It’s the Rams v. Cardinals for the NFC West title, to be determined in January/Weeks 17-18, not October.

Tampa Bay will be fine, but probably not going back to the Super Bowl…it’s hard to repeat for any team. I’d pick the Bucs over the Rams if a rematch magically happened in a few weeks. This might be the chip the Bucs needed…the wake-up call to spur the defending champs. Tampa Bay is not the clear best team in the NFC, and now they know at least one NFC team isn’t afraid of them when/if they meet again. If the Bucs lose to the Patriots in that emotional game this week…then I think the Bucs mini-tailspin has begun. If they smash NE, then all is well.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Sony Michel (20-78-0, 3-12-0/4) laid down a gauntlet in this game. A gauntlet to Darrell Henderson that Michel might be the better back for L.A.

Now, you can debate that last statement…but if it’s close to true, then you know who is going to have a Goomah on the side from Stafford? Sean McVay…with Michel. Sean McVay has never met a camera or microphone he didn’t love to blather on about football. Trading for Michel…that’s a McVay approved move, and he is going to be in love with it working out in the public eye. Plus, McVay hates Darrell Henderson.

However, I’ve not really seen McVay go wild talking about Sony Michel post this game. I thought McVay would be talking up a storm on him post-game/this week…but he has not, so I am not ready to say a Michel takeover is underway.

Henderson supposedly is going to play Week 4, per McVay…but McVay said it’s not 100% (at this point), so we have to assume Henderson is still banged up to some degree. If they hold Henderson out, it’s another opportunity for Michel to put down tape to seize the role.

Michel looked more like Cam Akers (the last two games) than Henderson, to me…but I don’t see evidence that McVay’s heart has landed there/with Michel…yet. Considering this was Michel working against the NFL’s elite run defense…I thought Michel was very good, and worthy of being the lead back going forward…and I don’t believe McVay is totally sold out to Henderson, but we’ll see soon enough.

 -- Five things about Rams receivers…

1) Everyone knows Cooper Kupp (9-96-2/12) is getting the ball from Stafford, but no one can stop it. The West Coast Rodgers-to-Davante is Stafford-to-Kupp. It’s a guaranteed top 3-5 PPR WR output for FF 2021, and beyond.

You want to take advantage of a Kupp holder (get it) who is (1-2) or (0-3)/a team with issues where you take your really good WR off a good Week 3/good 2021 run so far (like the #8 PPR WR in the game right now, Deebo Samuel) and add a 2nd decent thing the trade partner needs (usually some ‘RB depth’, because their ‘RBs are killing them’)…like Miles Sanders or David Montgomery maybe to try and pry Kupp loose.

Kupp is worth the investment…worth the you trading up for.

2) Robert Woods (3-33-0/6) is thus screwed here…Stafford barely looks for him. Don’t be surprised if he’s traded at some point if he becomes a malcontent. Do not think of buying Woods low here.

3) Van Jefferson (4-42-0/6) has become a starter in the WR trio. It’s only a matter of time before he’s FF scoring past Woods. But that means WR3-4 type work right now because it is congested for targets after Kupp…if Woods gets moved, then  it’s Van time as a solid WR2.5 in PPR. You’re better off with Jakobi Meyers on that same vibe today, potentially.

4) DeSean Jackson (3-120-1/5) is running as the #4 WR…only played 32% of the snaps. That seems to be his role…limited snaps, but a purposed weapon. If you play in leagues with distance TD bonuses…he’s not a crazy flex thought in the bye weeks ahead.

If you are running with Stafford as your #1 QB…there might be weeks you want to stack Stafford-DJax, because you’re way down after TNF or 1pmET games, and need to deploy this West Coast stack for upside point hopes.

5) I was all about Tyler Higbee (5-40-1/5) in 2020 (because of that magical late 2019 showing) and got burned by it.

I was anti-Higbee to start FF 2021 because – why would the Rams use Higbee now with all the WR firepower back and then some? Well, they’re using him decently…not great, but decently. And Higbee is so talented…it’s going to work to be a TE1 in that #6-12 TE range this season. I bet like every other week he pops, then is lowly targeted and then back-and-forth he goes depending on the opponent.

 -- Let’s finally talk about the Bucs here…

Just a blanket statement – Tom Brady (41-55 for 432 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-14-1) played near picture perfect QB play here. He was under assault for the first time in a long time, but he hung in the pocket…he made excellent anticipation throws under pressure…his mechanics are impeccable…his vision is still at his peak.

Brady has no run game and doesn’t care because he wants to set all the passing records. And he probably will. Brady might beat Mahomes-Rodgers-Allen-Herbert in stat output this season…beat them in pass attempts, yards, and TDs. He’s throwing at will and without conscious or coaching restriction.

All three Bucs starting WRs are going to produce, and Rob Gronkowski (4-55-0/8) might lead all TEs in TDs this season and be a guy who challenges the top 3 TEs for FF. This down game is probably your last chance to get in on him at a reasonable price…mild injury plus down FF week…this is your last chance, probably. If you want it…and unless you have Kelce-Waller, you want it.

 -- All the Bucs RBs are terrible running the ball…but note Gio Bernard (9-51-1/10) isn’t running the ball. Gio was finally the guy (in this game) I was looking for back in the preseason…three weeks after I hoped for it, two weeks since I dropped him most places.

Gio can be the new James White for FF, now that White is gone for 2021…but game flow rules. White was an every game plan…Gio is a certain situations plan, at this point.

However, because RoJo and Fournette are struggling – there might be a window for Gio to get more involved in general ahead, maybe taking 5+ carries a game and on the field more for dump pass work. Worth a last PPR FF-roster spot on the bench look to see if it happens, maybe?

 -- Let’s talk Rams defense…

LB Kenny Young (10 tackles, 1 sack, 3 TFLs) was straight fire in this game. Really excellent work here from their new main man in the middle. An LB1 ROS, potentially.

I don’t know what position Jalen Ramsey (8 tackles) plays anymore, but it’s not shutdown corner.  

The three most predominant places/positions/alignments that I saw Ramsey playing in this game (which follows it happening last week as well), listed in order of where I saw him most:

(1) Linebacker, whether in a 3-man, or 2-man linebacking set. I’m not kidding.

(2) DB…kinda safety…occasionally a corner, but no on anyone specifically just playing a section of the field.

(3) Rush end…lined up off the EDGE as an OLB floater and blitzing the backfield a couple of times.

Nowhere in there did I list ‘shutdown corner’.

This change means two things…

1) No elevated risk for the opposing #1 WR of being shutdown like the past, I guess (unless they deploy Ramsey on special/certain WRs). I suppose DeAndre Hopkins is fine this week?

2) Ramsey is listed a CB…or DB for IDP, but is playing like a ‘joker’ linebacker/safety combo – which means he has the capability and situation to be the #1 IDP CB (not DB, but top CB) scorer for Fantasy this year, because he’s really not a corner…he’s a linebacker? Say it out loud, it’s weird – Jalen Ramsey is more a linebacker, than a shutdown corner.

He’s averaging 6.7 tackles, 0.67 TFLs, and 0.67 PDs per game through 3 weeks.

Last season, in its entirety, Ramsey had 44 total tackles. He has 20 so far in three games.

Side DST note: The Rams-DST has tough matchups with ARI and SEA the next two weeks, and then DET-HOU-TEN -SF after that is a nice run.

 -- But the defense with the most excellent FF matchups coming up is – the Buccaneers-DST.

Weeks 4-8, they face: Mac J., Brissett, Hurts, Dalton?, and Winston.

A Week 9 BYE, then Heinicke, Dan Jones, Wentz, Ryan, Josh Allen, Winston, Darnold, Z. Wilson.

You can run with the Bucs-DST from Weeks 4 to the end of the season, except for Week 9 bye and Week 14 vs. BUF. Arguably the best DST schedule the rest of the season.

Snap Counts of Interest:

57 = Woods

53 = Kupp

50 = Van J

21 = DJax

48 = Michel

14 = Funk

33 = Gio

26 = Fournette

12 = RoJo