Ross Jacobs

FFM

01 November 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Packers 24, Cardinals 21 

The Cardinals grabbed an early lead, but the Packers would tie up the score shortly after. They then got the ball near the Cardinals goal line after Rondale Moore tipped the punt with his finger. However, the Cardinals defense stiffened and held the Packers to just a FG.

The score was 10-7 Packers at halftime and there was the feeling that the Packers were lucky to be in the game. Surely the Cardinals would crack it open soon. But a tipped pass off of Moore's hands ricocheted straight to a defender and the Packers got another short field and an easy score to make it 17-10.

After that the two teams would trade blows with the Cardinals twice scoring TD's to cut the Packer lead. With Green Bay looking to close the game out in the final minutes, they drove down to the Cardinals 1 yard line but were denied the score. Cardinals ball, 99 yards to go for the win.

Arizona looked like they were going to pull out a miracle win. They drove the field and were set up for the TD, but AJ Green didn't hear an audible from Kyler Murray and the perfectly thrown pass his direction sailed right behind him and into the arms of former Cardinal CB Rasul Douglas. Ball game Packers.

Credit the Packers. They were down their top two receivers, but they had the perfect game plan and pulled out the win over the better team. They are now 7-1 and right in the mix for the top seed in the NFC. With this win and Minnesota's loss to Dallas without Dak, they probably just cemented the division for themselves.

But...there's no way they are the better team of these two. Green Bay played as good a game as they could have hoped for and still needed a couple of turnovers and a missed audible to win. The Cardinals were off their game. It happens. But if you played this game 100 times I think the Cardinals win 60%+ of them. They are just a more well-rounded team to me.

Arizona is now tied with the Rams for the division, but they own the tiebreaker for the moment. There's still another game left to be played between them. Win that and they probably secure the division. Lose and they are likely looking at the #5 seed where they would still be dangerous but much less than if they had the 1 or 2 seed.

Of course this assumes that they can get through the next few weeks relatively unscathed, but that is much more difficult now with Kyler likely needing to recover from an injury. They have the 49'ers, Panthers, and Seahawks, all beatable teams. Can Colt McCoy get them through (if it comes down to it)? Perhaps. This defense is quite salty, and they have the playmakers to help him on offense. The toughest game will likely be the Seahawks because they could/should have Russell back by then. If they can go 2-1 in this stretch they'll be in good position to hang onto the lead against the Rams.

Fantasy Notes

--Another week, another so-so fantasy performance for Aaron Rodgers (22-37 for 184 yards, 2 TD/0 INT). I warned weeks ago that I didn't like how he looked or how the schedule was laid out and suggested you trade him for Josh Allen or another undervalued QB at the time. I know he didn't have Davante here and this was against one of the best defenses in the league, but something just isn't right with this offense and it's not getting better. Outside of the 2020 explosion, Rodgers has been mortal for fantasy three of the last four years. Most games now he gets about 250 yards and 2 TD's. Nice, solid work but not fantastic, not what you paid through the nose to draft. If he has another spike game soon I still recommend trying to get off this train.

--If you watched this game then you saw what I saw with the Packers RB's. AJ Dillon (16-78-0) was the more effective runner by far than Aaron Jones (15-59-1, 7-51-0/11) and also took one more carry than Jones. So are we to the point of a split?

No. I don't think so. This was the result of Davante being out which made the two RB's the best players left for Rodgers to work with. The Packers needed to grind the ball and control the clock, and Dillon's power running let them do just that. But it was Jones that got the goal line work and led the team in targets. Jones is still the far superior fantasy RB here. Of course if Jones ever does get hurt Dillon becomes a top 5 back instantly.

--Robert Tonyan tore his ACL here and is out for the year. Marcedes Lewis will ascend to the starting role. He's a trusted veteran for Rodgers, but I doubt it works out to good fantasy stats. He'll be the same as Tonyan, just hoping for the occasional TD to make it work. Green Bay might look to trade for help at TE too. There have been rumors floating that they are interested in Evan Engram. That would certainly be an interesting pairing, but I can't get fully excited about it because this is still not an efficient passing offense, and Rodgers isn't likely to wear out a new acquisition until he knows he can trust him.

--With Davante and Lazard both out, the TD's went to Randall Cobb (3-15-2/5) because of course they did. You think Rodgers is going to throw to anyone but his favorites? Cobb shouldn't even be on the field. He's completely useless for anything other than short 1st downs and TD's, but that's good enough for Aaron. You can safely ignore this event.

--Kyler Murray (22-33 for 274, 0 TD/2 INT, 6-21-0) had a down game here. That happens sometimes. He's still perfectly fine for fantasy moving forward after he gets past this new injury. Early reports are a PCL sprain which could keep him out a week...or a month. We'll have to wait for more information this week. I'm going to guess somewhere between 2-3 weeks. One likely scenario would be he misses the next 3 games and then returns for the Bears game after their bye week.

*RC Note: Kyler might try to play Week 9, but I’m guessing he’ll be out for at least Week 9 and 50/50 for Week 10. Colt McCoy has a chance to guide them through, although the offense/scoring will be down and affects FF production. 

Even if Kyler comes limping back Week 9...his running will be off and thus a restrictor on his FF upside -- and he was already not running for much of anything the past few weeks.

--Well, Chase Edmonds (7-30-1, 3-39-0/4) got his TD, so now is the time to try and package him up in a deal. His role isn't getting any better. James Conner (5-22-2) is still a fantasy vulture...uh I mean primary goal line back, and now that Kyler is hurt the scoring chances get even slimmer.

--DeAndre Hopkins (2-66-0/2) somewhat saved his day with an early bomb for 55 yards. He very nearly had a TD on the play, but it was called back for a facemask on the defender. He came into the game nursing a hamstring injury, so it was no surprise when he reinjured it on that play and had to leave the game for a time. Being the warrior he is, he checked himself back into the game later on (against Kingsbury's wishes) and caught another pass for 11 yards. They quickly pulled him again after that play and his day was done. He should be healthy again next week, but again, with Kyler being out it's obvious to wonder about how his scoring will be. This actually might work out for him though, because McCoy shouldn't be nearly as adept at exploiting mismatches, so he might just start forcing the ball to Hopkins again. We might be back to Hopkins getting 14 targets a game for a few weeks.

--Everyone else has just been a random decent option and hope for a score with Murray. Zach Ertz (4-42-0/4) is doing about the same work that Maxx Williams was getting. Kirk and Green are the next two options averaging 3-5 catches a game. And Rondale is still getting his usual short work looking to pop a big play. How all this changes with McCoy I have no idea. I'm guessing it doesn't get much better for anyone other than Hopkins.

IDP Notes

--RC and I had a quick discussion during the game about possible DPOY candidates in our opinion. De'Vondre Campbell (7 tackles, 1 sack, 2 tfl) should absolutely be on the short list, but he'll never even get a sniff from the mainstream media. And to think the Cardinals let him go this off-season and nobody wanted to sign him until Green Bay scooped him up for a minimal deal. What are all these GM's doing if they can't even see how great this guy is?

--Man, is Eric Stokes (6 tackles, 1 pd) good. RC is right that he's been the best rookie corner in a very good class of rookie corners. The man is very nearly a lockdown corner already. His only mistake on the night was the big play to Hopkins, but he had perfect coverage until Hopkins lost him last second on an adjustment to a wild throw by Murray. He should be in play for defensive rookie of the year, but again he won't even get mentioned I guarantee. Huge steal by the Packers in the 2021 draft.

Snap Counts of Interest

56 = AJ Green

46 = Christian Kirk

36 = Rondale Moore

43 = Zach Ertz

35 = Chase Edmonds

22 = James Conner

54 = Juwann Winfree

50 = Randall Cobb

16 = Amari Rodgers

48 = Aaron Jones

29 = AJ Dillon

35 = Robert Tonyan

31 = Marcedes Lewis

R.C. Fischer

FFM

01 November 2021

Looking at three Fantasy notes from each game this Sunday and our five players' advisory list for upcoming waivers, trading, and deep sleepers...

R.C. Fischer

FFM

29 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Bengals 41, Ravens 17

I knew as soon as I said something nice about the Ravens (last week) that they would do an instant heel turn on me. I will eviscerate them/John Harbaugh this week…so, guaranteed, next game for Baltimore – they will win by 70 points.

What a strange game, but a good game for the Bengals…a defining game, really. A game where you could say the Bengals are the best team in the AFC North now…and it not-be ridiculous. I think we need to start wondering if the Bengals are one of the best teams in the AFC…

As far as this game… It was a grind, a standoff in the 1st-half. 13-10 Cincy at the half…both teams displaying good defense that thwarted the opposing offenses. Ja’Marr Chase maybe had one catch and was being taken out by Marlon Humphrey while Lamar Jackson was being somewhat contained by the Bengals and doing his usual Lamar stuff = just missing that wide open receiver on a throw (with the game commentators saying: oh, he’d like to have that one back…no, that’s who Lamar is. It comes with the package).

The Bengals, clinging to a 3-point lead at the half, kicked off to Baltimore…who went down the field to take a 17-13 lead. You’re thinking, at that point, live, that this game was going to be a continued AFC North slugfest to the final whistle with the last team to have the ball getting the win.

However, from that point on the Bengals scored the next 24 points and it was so bad a beating that they took Lamar Jackson out with like 6+ minutes left in the game. The Ravens just rolled over and quit.

That ‘quitting’ comment needed to be thrown in there to show just how much the Bengals took it at the Ravens. These two good teams traded punches, but the Ravens ran out of steam and the Bengals just got better as they went. It wasn’t one of those ‘lucky’ wins where a team got a fluky INT or bad ref call or converted three 4th-downs to pull an upset…it was NOT tyat Cincy threw the kitchen sink at them and hung in for the win – this was the Bengals exercising pure toughness and making the Ravens bend to their will. This was a signature game for Cincy…a signature win.

The Bengals aren’t just ‘good’ and capable of surprising teams – they are going out and beating, physically beating…and outsmarting…and out-everything-ing teams. This is a (5-2) team that got screwed out of a win over Green Bay Week 5 (in the missed FG festival) in OT…and lost Week 2 at CHI in a bit of a fluky loss they almost came back late and won…they are closer to (7-0) then (3-4)/(4-3). Detroit gives every team fits week-to-week, but Cincinnati blew them out Week 6 and made them look worse/demoralized more than any time I’ve seen the scrappy Lions look this year.

I think I’d put my dollar down on the Bengals to win the AFC North today. The Browns are battered…and the Bengals are the new gritty, scrappy bunch of the AFC North.

Baltimore handed over the AFC North baton in this game…actually, the Bengals took the baton from the Ravens and then turned around and beat them about the head and neck area with it.

Baltimore is a random box marbles dumped onto your kitchen floor…you don’t know where they’re all going to go/wind up at from start to finish. One week they look great, the next they look stupid. This particular game was one of the worst game plans I’ve seen since the Ravens Week 1 watching Darren Waller catch 422 passes against them and they never adjusted (more on their issues in the next section).

The Ravens go as far as Lamar Jackson takes them/makes things up moment-to-moment as the defense randomly looks hot then cold series to series. This Ravens defense has allowed 30+ points in a game three times in 7 games. The defense is erratic, the coaching is erratic, the RB group is a disaster, and Lamar is erratic. They can beat anyone and lose to anyone. So, that type of team is going to be +/- .500 in the end. Lean 9-10 wins due to schedule, but 8 wins is possible as they are coached downwards…and all reliant on what side of the bed Lamar woke up on that day.

The Bengals are not all the way there yet, but they are legit. Legit to win the division. Legit to beat anyone in the AFC in the playoffs, home or on the road. It’s likely ‘too soon’ in the Bengals' evolution for them to go all the way – but you do not want to play this team. Good offense, very good defense, emerging kicker. If Cincy beats Cleveland Week 9 (at CIN), they will go on to win 11-13 games and win the AFC North and be a high seed in the AFC playoffs. If they lose to the Browns Week 9…it will be a dogfight between CLE and CIN to get to 11-12 wins and a division title, the other a top wild card.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I was asked about who I thought were the early MVP candidates in the NFL…Joe Burrow (23-38 for 416 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) is someone on my top 10 list.

After Week 7, Burrow is #4 in TD passes, #5 in passing yards…#2 in yards per pass attempt, behind Russell Wilson.

Burrow started out the season a bit clunky looking to me…a bit tentative coming off the injury – but if there is a modern-day Tom Brady, it is Burrow (not Mac Jones)…not as flashy as current day Brady, but then you look up and see him with 2-3-4 passing TDs in almost every game, flirting with 300+ yards passing a lot, winning games and performing well in all the weather elements. He’s just a great QB talent…a modern-day Joe Montana is again reforming with Burrow.

But because Burrow is not flashy…the Bengals are undervalued in point spreads, handicapping in general, and in Fantasy. People just do not, cannot see the Bengals as a top functioning team. It doesn’t compute with our history. The public is still lagging on the Bengals.

 -- The fans will think it’s all Ja’Marr Chase’s (8-201-1/10) doing, this Bengals turnaround. You’re not going to be able to talk them out of it…so, let them have their fun with it.

Chase was wiped out by Marlon Humphrey early on…barely was targeted, but then it started clicking in the second half and there was a simple short pass turned multiple missed tackle, spun around 360 and sent sailing for an 81-yard TD…and that kinda broke the back of the Ravens at that moment.

The thing about Chase is…he is paying off for Cincy in a different way. Yes, his personal numbers are sweet…but we’ve been over this time and again – it’s a lot of fluky big plays puffing his numbers. But the real win for Cincy here is: the hype on Chase is so real that the opposing team is starting to put #1 cover corners on him, and that’s opening up everything else.

Where John Harbaugh is a terrible coach, and whatever they say about Don ‘Wink’ Martindale being a defensive genius – this was the second time this year I saw obvious malfeasance of coaching forcing a Ravens loss here… Week 1 it was just sitting back and watching Darren Waller catch pass after pass on them, and them never adjusting to it. Here, it was Chase being put in one on one with Humphrey, and the safeties really never bracketing help over the top. And usually Burrow stayed away from Chase when Humphrey was on him, but as soon as Anthony Averett was on Chase…he went there. Eventually, Burrow attacked Humphrey because the underneath was opening up as the corner feared getting beat deep, because he had no help over.

The one time I saw them do a safety help over on Chase…Burrow got suckered into a throw to Chase (assuming the Ravens were never going to give Humphrey help deep), and the pass was picked off in the end zone – the one blight on Burrow’s day. I don’t recall seeing the safety help in play after that…

Burrow just picked on the weak spot of the Ravens defense over and over, Baltimore never really adjusted, Chase is really fast and has to be accounted for like Tyreek Hill in some senses…or any fast guy WR…Cooks, Ruggs, etc., and that opens up other things if the QB is smart…and Burrow is.

Soon, teams will double Chase a bunch and his numbers will tail off…but Tee Higgins (7-62-0/15) can take advantage of that. Speaking of Tee, he looked not-good here…Anthony Averett is playing a very good CB opposite Humphrey. Averett made Tee’s every catch torture. Tee could not separate from Averett often…the one worry about Tee at this level – his speed is a problem, but everything else looks fine.

The Ravens have a good secondary, but they had a bad plan/were out schemed here/Joe Burrow is Montana/Brady-esque with his dissection of things.

 -- The Ja’Marr Chase-effect is helping C.J. Uzomah (3-91-2/3) become relevant. 5 TDs in his last 4 games. Three targets or fewer in six of his 7 games this year, but he’s catching 88% of his targets this season, so he’s getting like 3 catches for yards and high hopes for a TD on limited targets – there’s an upside here with 1-2-3 more targets in games.

You like the main TE working with the elite passer – and Burrow is an elite passer. Uzomah is not going to become Kelce-Pitts or anything but outside of that, he’s a useful TE1 hopeful along with 10-15 other NFL starting TEs.

Someone sent me an article from CBS on how brilliant the Ja’Marr Chase draft pick was, to laugh at it. My text back captures the mainstream right now: They (the media/fans) don’t believe in (or even know about) the Cincy D, or Burrow as an MVP candidate, or Zac Taylor as Coach of the Year possible, or Awuzie as DPOY -- but Chase is for sure the smartest move in league history, that is now in stone after 7 games. The entirety of their Bengals analysis is = speaking the words Ja'Marr Chase...then mic drop...

 -- Lamar Jackson (15-31 for 253 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 12-88-0) had his typical 50+ yards rushing and 1 passing TD event.

I could make the argument that Lamar Jackson is a league MVP this year…that he is the entire team. However, I can’t say he’s an MVP because he’s a double-edged sword. One play he makes an escape and converts a 1st-down out of thin air and you marvel at the magician’s sleight of hand. No one can do what Lamar does…but then the next play comes along, and he misfires to an open receiver, or tries to run it when it’s not there and gets tripped up.

Comp. Pct. in his last five games (in order): 52%, 59%, 86%, 70%, 48%. He’s a box of chocolates QB…you never know what you’re gonna get. Sometimes brilliant, sometimes disastrous.

Credit the Bengals defense a lot here – it was Lamar’s season low for Comp. Pct. in a game, and his high for times sacked in a regular game…ever (5).

 -- Two RB notes from this game….

1) The Ravens RB group is killing them. Bell-Freeman were so bad here, it’s laughable…

However, one RB looked legit…Ty’Son Williams (2-10-0, 2-29-0/2). This backfield (that combined for 29 yards rushing on 11 carries…19 yards on 9 carries without Ty’Son) that Harbaugh is running makes no sense, and opponents are not threatened by it. But when Ty’Son came in he looked like a real running back.

I gotta think Harbaugh is not a total idiot, and he’ll figure out Ty’Son is his best shot, but…

I still think Ty’Son has hope for 2021, but not likely…and then no hope in 2022 when Dobbins-Edwards returns. It’s a 2021 thing/hope when Harbaugh is desperate.

2) Samaje Perine (11-52-1, 1-23-0/1) has back-to-back games with 11 carries each. He missed Week 6 with COVID. Before and after that, he’s playing much more snaps and working well.

I’ve gotten so many ‘Should I start Antonio Gibson or Chase Edmonds?’ questions this week…

In their last two games played:

12.0 carries, 48.0 total yards, 2.0 rec., 0.0 TDs (6.8 PPR) per game = Antonio Gibson

11.0 carries, 79.5 total yards, 2.0 rec., 0.5 TDs (13.0 PPR) per game = Chase Edmonds (includes the GB game)

11.0 carries, 79.0 total yards, 2.5 rec., 1.0 TDs (16.5 PPR) per game = Perine

Snaps played as % of the game snaps, in their last two games…

64% = Edmonds

55% = Perine

41% = Gibson

Why is Perine getting more touches? Three weeks ago, it was that Mixon was banged up/very questionable and was having snaps managed. But then Mixon got 23 touches Week 6…but got a little nicked up at the end of the game (Perine out with COVID). But Mixon was fine going into Week 7.

Is it a temporary management of touches for Mixon? Or other? Perine took the final 8 touches of this game, which was in the blowout stages – so, I think it’s more respect for Perine in general, but the game flow allowed Perine to get more work Week 7 late…and Week 5 Mixon was very questionable. Probably more blip than any alert.

 -- Rashod Bateman (3-80-0/6) looks very good…again, just a weak fit with Lamar in this offense. Eventually, Bateman will have a breakout game, but likely not a follow up after…just randomness, and mostly down on Lamar targeting (lack thereof).

If Bateman had landed better (NFL-wise), man…but he didn’t. Maybe he’ll surpass Marquise, but that probably won’t happen until next season (if it does at all). My fear is they split limited targets and are both ‘meh’ for FF in 2022.

 -- I keep saying it over and over…this Bengals-DST is no joke. They really won the game here, shutting down the Ravens, for the most part, all game. This is a really good, top 10 NFL defense…better than the Ravens defense…defense.

Watch what they do to Mike White this week…

And, yes, Chidobe Awuzie (5 tackles, 1 PD) should be on a list of 10 possible Defensive Player of the Year, but he won’t be…nor will he get a single vote or mention.

Snap Counts of Interest:

53 = Chase

45 = Boyd

42 = Higgins

34 = Mixon

30 = Perine

52 = Uzomah

27 = Sample

R.C. Fischer

FFM

29 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 4: Football Team 34, Falcons 30

These two teams…man, are they terrible.

The Falcons should’ve won this game by 2-3 scores, easy. But Taylor Heinicke hit Terry McLaurin with a couple prayers throughout the game, and a backbreaker late, while Arthur Smith is trying to become the worst offensive mind in the NFL. Blame the McLaurin prayer TDs for keeping Washington in it. Blame Smith or the O-C for being up by 2 points with 3+ minutes left and blowing it from there.

The Falcons just allowed a TML prayer, hail mary-ish TD but Washington failed the 2-point conversion to tie the game. So, Atlanta was up by 2 points and was getting the ball with 3+ minutes left…and if they can get a 1st-down or two, they ice the game and the victory...giving them a 2-game win streak and some life to the season. Out the Falcons come on offense, and the first play they run is a handoff to Mike Davis…for -3 yards.

To that point in the game, Cordarrelle Patterson had 3 TDs, but more importantly he was gashing the Football Team on every run (5.7 ypc for the game for CP) while Mike Davis was averaging just above 1 yards per carry in the game. So, needing to push the ball and run the clock, they give it to Davis, of course, and now have 2nd and 13…and you knew they were going to now fail to drive and have to give the ball over to Washington with plenty of time unless they somehow got clever and got a 1st-down conversion…but 2nd & 13 is a bad spot. The Falcons then ran play #2 off-tackle to Davis…for a few meaningless yards (no threat of him breaking a big gain, just a pile moved)…setting up 3rd & 9…which was then a screen pass to Davis for 4 yards and punt.

The three most important plays of the game…and Cordarrelle Patterson, and his 3 TDs, was on the sidelines watching it all…not even in as a smart decoy to have to account for…while Mike Davis lost the game by virtue of his lack of playmaking ability in a key spot.

You cannot make up how stupid NFL coaches and coordinators are.

I marveled at watching an extra point kicked in this game early on. Why? Because as the camera panned to the ball being snapped and then following it up into the air as it was kicked, I got to see all the background of the stadium/seating and it caught my attention that it was pure red…blood red…nothing but empty (red) seats as far as the eye could see with a smattering of human bodies spread out here and there – and it wasn’t due to COVID because they were packed in like sardines for the TB-NE game (and most any college football game), in the rain in New England, at night (as one example). The fans are voting with their feet/wallets on the Falcons.

The Falcons are pathetic, and this new coaching staff has shown me nothing to have any hope in. Dan Quinn should win a special medal of honor that he got this team to the Super Bowl a while back. It’s an organizational problem…one of the worst run organizations in the league, suddenly.

And the thing is…they should’ve crushed Washington here. The better team was Atlanta…or maybe the less-worse team was Atlanta. Washington made all the right moves in the 2021 offseason, coming of an emerging end to 2020 – the players aren’t the problem. The math then has to be: Ron Rivera is not a great coach. Once Sean McDermott left him in Carolina, Rivera has gone 38-42 with two playoff appearances and no wins…and has been trying so hard to convince the world that Kyle Allen and Taylor Heinicke can be Super Bowl QBs. An indictment of his coaching mind.

11 career head coaching seasons now for Rivera and three winning seasons all total. And this talented Washington team is sinking to the bottom of the NFC East, fast.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Let’s all celebrate Cordarrelle Patterson (6-34-0, 5-82-3/6)…the FF savior.

As Fantasy analysts we can all fight over whether a ‘B’ grade player is set up for an ‘A’ season or game…or ‘C’ season or game. We do a lot of talking and noticing and we get some right and get some wrong – but when you get Cordarrelle Patterson right weeks ahead of the crowd, and the majority of you possessed him to start the season or quickly got into him after Week 1 or 2 – this move could change the landscape of a Fantasy season. This is what I live for. This WAS a difference making minor move…that was little regarded in August.

Mark Cuban has a great line/book of the same theme – on some major things in life. His overall take is: You only have to be right once to be a major success. You could have 10 failed businesses but if the 11th is the homerun, then you win at life. You date a number of people (failed attempts) looking to find ‘the one’. Cuban is encouraging people not to let failure change them – look ahead to the next swing to hit the homerun, don’t worry about the strikeout the at bat before.

There are a lot of players we moved off-and-on the bench/rosters this season, but the identification of Patterson…for the cost of acquisition – it will go down in FFM history. Qadree Ollison, Ty Johnson, K.J. Osborn…doesn’t matter. You take those swings trying to find the Patterson nuclear bombs. Leading your league in transactions and trades…should be a staple of your FFM season. We’re taking educated scouting draft throws…looking for that ‘wow’ maneuver. CP is bringing us just that.

We found it. And if you deployed it Week 4…it was a weapon of mass destruction on your opponent. If it was on your bench…celebrate that you have ‘an answer’ in your inventory. There’s no questioning of CP anymore. It’s a delightful place to be.

…which means 5 FF points coming Week 5.

I see many analysts saying it’s not going to hold up because he’s playing a low amount of snaps. I get that logic…it’s made me cautious on starting some him the first few weeks depending on my options. Volume rules in many cases. However, with Patterson there’s two thoughts on his low snap counts…

1) They can grow from here. Potentially, we have upside here. He is the best RB on the team, after all.

2) For the first time this season, Patterson started the game. Not only started but played the first 3 plays before rotating Mike Davis in. Even the empty-headed Falcons can see the deal here…somewhat, not all the way, but baby steps towards it.

We have upside from here, but he is going to have regular old FF weeks where he doesn’t score a TD. Brace yourself for it, but I see the way they use him and I’m not worried about him week-to-week. He has to be in lineups.

You can choose to focus on the snap count here…or the output. I’m choosing the output.

Arthur Smith gets no credit for CP…this was the Bears 2020 assistant coach getting elevated to O-C in Atlanta and having worked with Patterson he wanted to bring him over and utilize him. Credit to O-C Dave Ragone.

Also, Matt Nagy had Patterson for two years…and wasted him. How long will this Nagy cancer continue to ruin players before the Bears do something?

 -- Mike Davis (13-14-0, 2-12-1/2) is trying hard but looks nothing like Patterson…Davis is becoming a wasted touch suddenly. Davis is averaging 3.1 yards per carry this season.

Wayne Gallman (6-29-0) debuted/entered the game and looked more spry.

Mike Davis is a sell high, if you see an opportunity because he’s not lighting it up and all the other RBs on the team are outperforming, visually. He’s going to be the 10+ carry, 1-3 catch a game guy…so he’s stable…but not exciting.

 -- Antonio Gibson (14-63-1, 2-12-0/2) was back to his starting role this week (after McKissic started and played the whole first series last week).

I think this game, this stat line is what we can expect from Gibson this year most weeks. A so-so/weaker O-Line and defenses keying on AG and letting Heinicke try and beat them. Bad news for AG’s FF value/upside. Stable RB2 with RB1 weeks.

He’s neither a buy low or sell high, he’s hold…a stable RB in a world of unstable RBs.

Washington losing Brandon Scherff kills things a little more the next 3+ weeks.

 -- Is Kyle Pitts (4-50-0/9) getting any better? Yes and No.

Yes, he saw more targets here. Yes, he was involved early…but then it petered out.

No, there is no real plan for him. No, he is not getting separation the way you want.

If they lined up Pitts as a WR a lot and let him go one-on-one more with DBs, it would open up other things. If they got Pitts those TE bubble screens that I saw like 5-10 times all last season but is now seemingly happening 5-10 times a game between any two teams in 2021, then Pitts might do more NFL/FF damage. But Arthur Smith is proving to be a dolt and his O-C is getting championed for Cordarrelle (but only plays him 30% of the game)…so, Pitts is getting ZERO creative plays behind the line of scrimmage…which let’s defenses just play him as a 1980’s TE without fearing he’s going to do something unusual/fresh/creative.

You have to have a Pitts alternative until we see a real turn with Pitts. I think that turn could come, but only from TE2 to low-end TE1. I doubt this offense, or these coaches are going to push Pitts to be a high-end monster this year.

 -- Taylor Heinicke (23-33 for 290 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs, 5-43-0) is probably going to keep this job over returning Ryan Fitzpatrick, but he shouldn’t. Heinicke is trying hard, racking numbers in garbage-timeish situations…so he looks better on paper then the on-field reality. Everyone of his TD passes in this game was a Jameis Winston like miracle.

In today’s NFL, if you just throw the ball at a good WR…something positive will eventually happen…worse case the pass goes incomplete, with a high chance of a defensive P.I. Good defenses have squashed Heinicke. Bad defenses have let him roll up desperation numbers. He’s playing like a younger Ryan Fitz – just heave it up and something good might happen, or worse case something neutral.

The style makes Heinicke an unpredictable, decent FF emergency option…but he isn’t taking Washington to the playoffs…or your FF team.

 -- Curtis Samuel (4-19-0/4) debuted and looked fine, but he played managed snaps and Heinicke isn’t as into throwing tight window passes, and Samuel is becoming a possession WR and not being unleashed as a weapon…is my concern. Might not be a big winner for FF here until garbage-time hits, like the rest of the squad.

 -- Terry McLaurin (6-123-2/13) got two TDs…one was heave and pray, and the DB was tracking it but mistimed the knock away and it landed in McLaurin’s hands seemingly right through the DBs arm…great concentration moment, but not really QB-WR magic happening…more a prayer answered. Later in the game, Heinicke heaved one to the end zone desperately to a double covered McLaurin who adjusted to the under throw, pass interfered/grabbed a DB and moved him out of his way so he could get in front of him to catch the wounded duck…and he did. Again, no real magical pitch and catch happening…but you’ll take blind heaves to a #1 deep ball WR.

I think McLaurin will be hard pressed for TDs because of Heinicke but…maybe he’ll score them because of the team being so bad, down a lot, and Heinicke is heaving him shots. I’m not selling him off desperately, but I will trade him hot if I can make a killer deal…people love him.

 -- Logan Thomas will be week-to-week with a hamstring injury, so I’d expect you’ll be without him the next two weeks. Ricky Seals-Jones (2-19-0/4) played the heavy majority of snaps in his place. Thomas was working like a back-end TE1 already, so I’d say RSJ will be a lesser-than and be a random hope TE2. He’s something to consider for the desperate, but rookie John Bates (0-0-0/0) may get some run as Washington lost key OL Brandon Scherff to injury for a few weeks, and Bates is a great blocker to add to the first team to help cover for Scherff.

 -- OK, now the Washington-DST is fully dead. They didn’t give the Falcons and dying Matt Ryan any real resistance. This was the game for them to step up and make Weeks 1-3 more about the tough opponents Weeks 1 and 3. Nope…they sucked here vs. ATL. No light at the end of any tunnel here.

Snap Counts of Interest:

55 = Pitts

49 = Hurts

17 = Lee Smith

51 = Mike Davis

23 = CPatt

10 = Gallman

62 = Seals-Jones

16 = Bates

65 = McLaurin

45 = Humphries

28 = Dyami

25 = C Samuel

37 = Gibson

27 = McKissic 

Ross Jacobs

FFM

29 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Buccaneers 38, Bears 3 

There's not much to take away from this one. The game was over by the end of the 1st quarter with the Bucs leading 21-0. It was 35-3 at halftime and the Bucs just kind of sat on the Bears the rest of the game. They barely even had to try.

The strange thing about this one is that it probably shouldn't have been such a huge gap. Almost every one of the Bucs scores came from a Bears turnover with a short field. Tampa didn't even have to drive the field. And even when they did score, the Bears defense wasn't making it easy on them. Brady had to squeeze multiple passes into really tight coverage. The Bears gave up 38 points, but it wasn't because of the defense. It was because Justin Fields is completely inept.

The Bucs just keep on cruising with a ridiculously easy schedule. They are going to be in the mix for the top seed in the NFC and will be one of the top Superbowl contenders. Can they win it? Absolutely. Are they the favorites? Probably not but it's hard to tell who the best NFC team is. It's up for debate between Arizona, Tampa, LAR, Dallas, and Green Bay.

The Bears fall to 3-4 and their schedule is about to eat them alive. Fields is simply not good enough to lead them through this. I don't see how they win more than 4 or 5 games this year.

Fantasy Notes

--The biggest surprise from this game had to be Khalil Herbert (18-100-0, 5-33-0/5) rushing for 100 yards on the vaunted Bucs defense. Was it a fluke? Yes and no. Herbert is for sure a solid runner. I liked what I saw from him in college, but I still didn't expect this. The best way I can think to describe him is as a slower Maurice Jones-Drew. He's a little guy but extremely strong and hard to bring down. He's patient and has good vision. Just a natural all-around RB, a solid talent. He doesn't have high end speed or agility, but I've seen enough now to know he can definitely play at this level.

Now he was helped out here by the run blocking. I'm not sure what got into the Bears but they opened him some nice holes to run through, something nobody else has managed to do against the Bucs. Maybe the Bucs just didn't care and knew the Bears couldn't beat them running the ball. Whatever it was, it worked out.

Some expected that Damien Williams would split touches with Herbert, but that didn't happen. Herbert is the one good thing the Bears have going on offense, so as long as Montgomery is out expect his numbers to remain stable. He's played his way into the #2 spot and I will be shocked if he isn't still taking 30% of the carries when Montgomery returns.

--Justin Fields (22-32 for 184 yards, 0 TD/3 INT, 8-38-0) is awful to watch. He couldn't look less interested in the game. He wants the ball out of his hands as fast as possible so he doesn't get killed. Even when he runs the ball I'm not seeing a 4.40 runner. Instead he just looks like every other generically decent running QB. For example, Lance has shown some legitimate burst as a runner. Fields has not. Not that I've seen anyways. Bears fans are in for a rough ride the next 3-4 years.

--As Fields fails he's taking this entire receiving corp with him. Allen Robinson (2-16-0/4) has a mere 23 catches on the year. I've seen a lot of Twitter analysts saying he's a buy low...no, just no. It's not his fault but it's reality. Just for context, Robinson has three seasons with over 1000 yards and they came with Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, and Nick Foles at QB, all guys the media loves to make fun of as trash heap QB's. Robinson is on pace for 55 catches for 608 yards. Just saying.

--The new top target in this passing game is actually Darnell Mooney (2-39-0/5) for what that's worth (Mooney 345 yards on the year compared to Robinson's 250). He is Fields's go-to guy. It's not going to work often but there will be an occasional spike game when they manage to connect on a long ball. Good luck guessing which game that is.

--Tom Brady (20-36 for 211 yards, 4 TD/0 INT) is still doing Brady things. He wants to win for sure, but he's clearly trying to rack up as many TD's as possible. He's got 21 already and is on pace for 48. He should get close to that mark and be in the top 3 or so QB scorers.

--With Antonio Brown out it sets up Chris Godwin (8-111-1/11) and Mike Evans (6-76-3/10) for some juicy numbers in his absence. I speculated weeks ago that while all three guys could be successful on the field together, they were all going to be held in the WR1.5-2 range while rotating, but that if one of them went out it would instantly rocket the other two to WR1 status. Well here we have the results, and it looks great for Godwin and Evans.

What Brown's absence didn't do was elevate Tyler Johnson (2-16-0/2) to any kind of meaningful touches. Brady has his guys, and he's not going to change that.

--Another item I talked about recently was my fears for Leonard Fournette (15-81-1, 2-9-0/4) because I thought that Ronald Jones (10-63-0) hadn't been completely vanquished. Coming into this game I thought perhaps Jones was just taking carries late in the game after it was already over, but that wasn't the case. Fournette worked the first two series but Jones was in on the third and getting a significant number of touches. I think we're back to the split they started the season with.

Jones is out of the doghouse temporarily and should get 8-10 carries a game while Fournette is going to take 12-15 and most of the receiving work. It still amounts to solid touch counts for Fournette, but my point was that the people saying he was a sure RB1 were assuming Jones was done for good and I suspected that was incorrect. Turns out it was.

IDP Notes

--Roquan Smith (13 tackles) now has 75 tackles on the year (10.7/g). He's only had less than 10 tackles in one game. He also has 2 sacks and an INT returned for a TD. This guy is arguably the top LB in the game. I know he's not remotely available in IDP leagues, but I had to share those numbers since they are so impressive. I wasn't a huge Smith fan when he came out, but he's really turned into a tackling machine. He should be getting some Defensive Player of the Year talk but likely won't since the Bears are losing a lot.

Snap Counts of Interest

39 = Leonard Fournette

14 = Ronald Jones

61 = Chris Godwin

56 = Mike Evans

49 = Tyler Johnson

40 = Cameron Brate

37 = OJ Howard

51 = Khalil Herbert

11 = Damien Williams

59 = Cole Kmet

26 = Jesse James

R.C. Fischer

FFM

29 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Raiders 33, Eagles 22

Another week, another game where the Eagles get down by a million and then score a bunch of garbage late 2nd-half to make it look respectable…but it wasn’t. The Raiders led this game 30-7 halfway through the 3rd-quarter…and that’s with them blowing other scoring opportunities (including picked off near the end-zone 1st-quarter on a drive).

Nick Sirianni is turning out to be exactly what I pegged him to be in the preseason – and now it’s becoming like a Saturday Night Live skit. He is entering the one-and-done Freddie Kitchens territory with another couple of losses. Of course, the Eagles have become so poorly run…who knows what they will do…and then it really doesn’t matter. Who do I think will be the next Eagles head coach…? https://youtu.be/UQschA2lC_Y

The Eagles are (2-5), very lucky to not be (1-6). They will get beaten by the Lions this week…and then all hell will break loose. This is a 6-8-win team being coached down into a 3-4 win team.

The Raiders look totally lost without Jon Gruden. I mean Gruden built this team for the past few years. He gave such a vision, such leadership…and without that man who bled and sweated with them all summer, every summer, and who spent 25 hours a day at the team facility watching tape – the players have become crestfallen without their rock, their leader, and they cannot be expected to perform their jobs under such circumstances. *checks notes* Oh, no I’m sorry…I mean they’ll win both their first two games without Gruden, look the best they have in the Gruden era in those games, and will finish ahead of the Chiefs in the AFC West (maybe…maybe not).

Remember the plights, the realities of Nick Sirianni and Jon Gruden…and their (no) effect on an NFL professional football team when the media spends a month+ in January 2022 salivating over ‘who the next coach is gonna be’ articles/reports/rumors…and then the garbage that will spew when that ____ guy takes over and talks about culture changing and how disciplined their gonna be.

The team’s fans will eat up with a spoon, as always.

Maybe Bill Gates has a point that 90% of us need to get gone from the earth…especially the football media…and NFL coaching staffs.

The Gruden-less Raiders are now (5-2), on a bye, and projecting to 7-9 wins. The schedule is a bear from ahead. They need Week 9 at NYG to be without all the NYG stars to get that needed win, because if the NYG stars are back…they’ll get got by the G-Men. The Raiders might fall short of .500, or without Gruden they pop to 9-10 wins and a wild card. Week 10 hosting KC is gonna be huge for both teams for the playoffs.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Well, Miles Sanders (6-30-0, 1-0-0/1) seemed to be headed for a big day until he got his ankle injured and had to leave the game and will probably be out for 1-2 weeks…maybe a 3rd week. So, with that…what’s the FF play in this backfield?

As soon as Sanders went down, the Eagles went with the RB they’ve been ‘pushing’ (in quotes, because it’s been a weak-ass push to say the least) as the #2 all season…rookie Kenneth Gainwell (5-20-0, 4-41-1/8). It all makes sense…Sanders in, get excited about Gainwell. There’s a problem, however…

Gainwell entered…fumbled, dropped passes, and couldn't block worth a crap. Gainwell took the first post-injury series, looked bad…and then Boston Scott (7-24-1, 1-5-0/2) came in…and looked MUCH better.

Scott started taking over, but then Gainwell came back in…and fumbled, giving Las Vegas another score before halftime. Coming out of the 2nd-half, Scott was starting. Eventually, Gainwell came back in and took more touches as the game further got out of hand. And when the furious comeback attempt happened, it was mostly all Gainwell in…but in the hurry up.

I honestly don’t know what the Eagles will do Week 8 vs. DET with their backfield. I have to project it as a split with Gainwell seeing more targets, but anything could happen, I suspect.

I think the regime is split…they want Gainwell to be the guy, because he’s their draft pick. However, Scott is the better NFL player right now…and if the Eagles lose to Detroit, all hell is going to break loose.

On top of that, I suspect Jordan Howard will be elevated – another experienced hand into the mix.

Who should you play for FF purposes? You have to assume Gainwell if forced to choose, but I wouldn’t bet a nickel on it. I have a funny feeling it will be Boston Scott as the best performer but trying to figure out Nick Sirianni is difficult…not for the faint of heart. You have to put yourself in the shoes of – what would an incompetent, ill-equipped for his job person do…and I can’t relate to that…

Miles Sanders is a good buy extremely low off this injury – when he comes back, he’s the guy they’re trying to push. You crave a 10+ carries a week RB…he’ll be one. But only buy as an RB3 value.

 -- I think Jalen Hurts’ (18-34 for 236 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) days are numbered. I’m not going to get into all the defending of Hurts, because it doesn’t matter. I’ve been around in this game long enough to know what’s about to happen.

1) The whole football machine is against him… The media hates him, always have…thought he was illegitimate day one – and they write articles weekly all 2021 about what college or pro QBs are best to replace him. Thus, the fans hate him now…he’s easy to blame for the losses. It’s the Eagles management’s fault as much as anything, but Hurts is the perfect scapegoat right now.

2) I am seeing the first pro-Gardner Minshew articles starting to float out to the public…complete with Sirianni chiming in on how much they like him, and that’s why they felt fine trading Joe Flacco. The articles and Sirianni’s words are well crafted…not off the cuff. It’s like an evil government messaging from a movie…or from the United States 2021 – shaped trial balloons being floated, telegraphing true intentions but not giving truth all at once because we’re all too dumb (they think) to handle it.

The Minshew telegraphing is starting.

Can you imagine what will happen if the Eagles lose to the (0-7) Lions this week? There will be fallout and the change could happen as early as Week 9 at home.

If you own Hurts, you’re fairly comfortable starting him every week because he’s been an ace for FF (4pts per pass TD especially), but there is risk that rug will be pulled out from underneath you in the next few weeks.

If Hurts is your #1 QB by a mile…you better get working on a Plan B.

If Hurts is your great #2 QB with an ace #1 QB in stock already…it’s probably time to sell Hurts high while the gettin’s good. They lose to Detroit this week (and that’s an if) – all hell will rain down and speculations and him possibly being traded, etc. Your current top 5 FF QB could vanish in an instant this time next week…and that sucks, but he’s got value today – you might want to cash out.

SuperFlex leagues is probably time to grab Minshew and sit on him for a spell.

 -- Josh Jacobs (6-29-1, 3-39-0/3) got hurt and left this game early and Kenyan Drake (14-69-1, 3-10-0/3) came in stronger to pick up the slack and looked better than Jacobs.

Drake has value as the co-back with Jacobs with the new coaching staff, but also is the proper handcuff for if/when Jacobs goes down. I assume Jacobs will be back Week 9, after the Week 8 bye…but we won’t know that fully until next week.

 -- Bryan Edwards (3-43-1/4) is pissing me off. The guy looks so good…so like a potential star #1 WR, but his targeting is still very random and he’s #3-4-5-6 in the pecking order. There is no Carr lean or desperate look for him still.

Carr looks for Hunter Renfrow and whomever is at TE, and then Henry Ruggs…and then everything else.

Foster Moreau (6-60-1/6) had better numbers here than Darren Waller (or Bryan Edwards) has the past five games prior.

 -- DeVonta Smith (5-61-0/9) looks like a nobody in this offense. He’s the #1 target for Hurts, but it’s not exciting. Maybe things will be better with a switch to Minshew? I think so…it would be good for DeVonta, good for Dallas Goedert (3-70-0/5)…and good for the RB getting easy passes – another reason to invest cheap in Sanders, upon his return.

https://youtu.be/CaCwTaZRu_0

Snap Counts of Interest:

35 = Gainwell

23 = Scott

12 = Sanders

59 = Bry Edwards

47 = Ruggs

36 = Renfrow

Ross Jacobs

FFM

29 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Patriots 54, Jets 13 

I'm not sure what all to say about this one. The Patriots were the more disciplined, solid team and they kicked the crap out of the Jets. Apparently Belichick really hates them because he kept piling on late after the game was more than over.

Don't let the score fool you, the Patriots are not that great a team. They are just better than the Jets. Everyone is better than the Jets. It's not that they aren't trying either. They are. They just suck on both sides of the ball. That spunky young defense that was showing signs early in the year? Gone. The offense has never been good because the offensive line is corrupt without Becton and now Zach Wilson looks like he'll be out a while. I would absolutely take the Texans and Lions and Jaguars over this team right now. That's how terrible they look.

The Patriots are an average team. They are disciplined and play safe, controlled football. They are going to wreck bad teams like this, but they aren't going to be able to hang with playoff caliber squads due to the talent disparity, particularly on offense. I see this team finishing somewhere around the .500 mark and missing the playoffs.

Fantasy Notes

--Well Wilson got knocked out in the late 2nd quarter and looks like he'll be out for a while. The Jets turned to 4th year QB Mike White (20-32 for 202 yards, 1 TD/2 INT) and he wasn't terrible. They immediately traded for Joe Flacco, and there was some speculation that Flacco might start against the Bengals but the Jets announced it would be White.

So what can we expect from White? The closest comparisons I can think of would be Mason Rudolph and Mike Glennon. Big guy, decent but not overpowering arm, wants to attack downfield but can be a bit scattershot with his accuracy. He's the kind of guy that might have been a halfway decent starter 10-15 years ago but in today's game he's just another so-so backup. He's not terrible but definitely not some hidden gem either, and unfortunately his first start is going to come against a feisty Bengals defense. I don't think this is going to end particularly well.

--Even though White wants to go downfield with the ball, he isn't afraid to check it down either which is why both Michael Carter (11-37-0, 8-67-0/9) and Ty Johnson (5-6-0, 6-65-0/7) caught 6+ passes. Both guys are going to struggle getting anything on the ground with this terrible offensive line but will get some decent ppr work. Johnson probably won't be consistent enough to matter, but Carter is the lead now and in the mix as a desperation option at RB.

--The Jets WR's are all completely unusable this year. It's a 3-way split between Davis, Crowder, and Moore. Of the three Davis is getting the most consistent work and the TD opportunities and Moore is the guy they would like to get going. He's also the future slot receiver for Wilson after Crowder moves on. I finally saw a little spark from him on his 19 yard TD run. He took a reverse and looked like he would be tackled in the backfield, then suddenly put his foot in the ground and blew past multiple Patriots defenders. I still don't see a true WR, but his physical gifts are starting to show a little. I would be interested in him as a deep stash in dynasty for next year.

--I know it doesn't matter for this year, but I have to say this: Zach Wilson is really damn good and easily the best rookie QB. I don't care one bit what the stats say. He is dealing with a pathetic offensive line that's allowing him to get instantly pressured every snap, bad WR's that can't separate, and he still looks completely calm as he surveys the field and whips passes with a flick of his wrist. You know who he looks like? Kyler Murray without the long speed. If, and this is a big if, the Jets can fix this offensive line and get him some real receivers in the next year or two, Wilson is 100% going to be a good QB, and he is basically free in dynasty right now. If you don't have him as your 3-4-5th QB you should absolutely go get him at the end of the year.

--As good as Wilson looks, I just cannot say the same thing for Mac Jones (24-36 for 307, 2 TD/0 INT). He's fine, I'm not saying he's a bust. But there's just nothing to get excited for here. He's Jimmy Garoppolo but even safer with the ball. He is the essence of the words “game manager.” And I know everyone said that about Brady his first few years, but do we really think Mac is going to turn into Brady? I don't see it. I don't see the fire, the drive that Brady had even as a young QB. I see a glorified backup, a slightly better Case Keenum. Could be worse...they could have traded up for Justin Fields.

--You can't take too much away from the RB numbers from this game. The Jets have a terrible run defense and the game got out of hand quickly. Damien Harris (14-106-2) is still the lead. JJ Taylor (9-21-2) was his primary backup on the ground and got his two TD's in garbage time. Strangely they aren't using Taylor as a receiving back like I would have expected. It's Brandon Bolden (2-0-0, 6-79-1/7) that's the primary receiving/3rd down back right now. I want to think that he's the new James White, but his disappearance last week was strange. I don't think we can count on anything with this backfield right now. If you desperately need points Bolden is a decent try though.

Rhamondre Stevenson had a big game last week out of nowhere which led to many people proclaiming that he had arrived and was going to be featured more moving forward. Oops. I couldn't find a lot of information on why he was a healthy scratch, but it's apparently going to be Belichick's call every week between him and Taylor for the 3rd spot, whichever guy he thinks practiced better or worked harder.

--There's still no WR you want to be using from NE. Jacobi Meyers (5-44-0/7) is the closest thing in ppr, but he doesn't score TD's. Mac just spreads the ball around too much for any one guy to be dependable. The only thing that's been consistent so far is Hunter Henry (2-23-2/4) in the endzone. He's the Patriots' version of Mo Alie-Cox. Henry took almost all the TE snaps after Jonnu Smith left the game with an injury. If Smith is out then Henry suddenly becomes a nice potential option at TE and should be battling with a million other guys in the 6-15 range at the position.

IDP Notes

--As the Jets defense completely dies two guys stand to benefit for IDP purposes. The two safeties Marcus Maye (12 tackles) and Ashtyn Davis (11 tackles) are going to get a ton of numbers as teams run the ball against a leaky front seven. In Maye's four healthy games this year he's averaged 8.75 tackles per game, and Davis got 11 in his first game as a full-time starter after playing less than 50% of the snaps in weeks 4 and 5. The one concern here would be if Maye is traded before the deadline.

Snap Counts of Interest

60 = Hunter Henry

17 = Jonnu Smith

35 = Damien Harris

21 = Brandon Bolden

20 = JJ Taylor

59 = Jakobi Meyers

43 = Nelson Agholor

41 = Kendrick Bourne

52 = Jamison Crowder

47 = Corey Davis

37 = Elijah Moore

47 = Michael Carter

21 = Ty Johnson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

28 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Rams 28, Lions 19

I’m not sure how to ‘call’ this game…

The Lions threw the kitchen sink at the Rams…in fact, they threw the entire kitchen at the Rams but still lost. An opening drive ‘lucky’ catch-and-long-run TD by D’Andre Swift to get the kitchen tossing metaphors started. An onside kick right after, and the Lions recovered it…but their offensive drive off of that stalled, but then they pulled a fake punt to keep it going, ultimately taking a 10-0 lead. The Rams looked shell shocked.

But then the next thing you know, the Rams are leading 17-16 at the half.

Another fake punt conversion…going for it (unsuccessfully) on 4th-downs…the Lions getting back the lead 19-17…and then the next thing you know the Rams are up again 25-19 – but the Lions were driving into the red zone with 6+ minutes left, and then a Jared Goff INT in the end zone killed the chance to take the lead and the Rams put it away to secure the 25-19 victory.

The Lions tried every trick in the book…and failed. I wanna say ‘kudos’ to the Rams for withstanding all that, but they didn’t look that great doing it. Everything was driven by Lions, the pros and cons…and the Rams played their normal game – pretty good offense but not dominating, a sloppy defense that man’s up at just the right time. I’ve not been overly impressed with the Rams all season. They’re good but soft…and they have had the world’s easiest schedule to help them get over to (6-1) so far. We see the Rams finishing with 10-11 wins and a few games back of Arizona for the NFC West.

The poor Lions…they pour their heart & soul into every game and always come up short. They’re (0-7) but aren’t an 0-7 team…they are not the worst team in the NFL. They will win 2-3-4 games before it’s all said and done. I believe they will get that first win Week 8 hosting Philadelphia.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Who won the battle of the QB-who-were-traded-for-each-other?

You have to say Matt Stafford (28-41 for 334 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) but it looks like the same old ‘good’ with flaws Stafford we always see. He looks comfortable…because he’s well protected by one of the top O-Lines, and healthiest O-Lines, in football.

On the other hand, Jared Goff (22-36 for 268 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) always looks frazzled as a Lion…but he’s lost his two best OLs and has Kalif Raymond as his best WR. So, what would we expect Goff to look like? Comfortable is not possible for him.

Stafford looks better, but factor in their surroundings…and I might respect what Goff is fighting through more than the silver spoon year of Stafford.

For FF, I want Stafford…no debate.

 -- How about the battle of the two main RBs here? I pose the question that way for a reason…

D’Andre Swift (13-48-0, 8-96-1/10) is ripping up PPR and had a nice/lucky catch-and-run short pass long TD here to start the game…he almost fell down after the catch, he broke an arm tackle, two defenders knocked into each other…and then Swift was off to the races.

Swift looks fine, and you love that Goff has no protection…so that little swing pass out of the backfield to Swift is key to preserve his life, and it’s better than any other play they could run. I’m totally fine with Swift. He looks good-not-great, but his situation for PPR is great-not-good.

However, I’m watching Darrell Henderson (15-45-0, 3-19-0/6) in this game…and it’s the fastest he’s looked to me all year. He looked like a better version of Swift in the game. Henderson was working fine before this, but it looks like someone took a restrictor plate off of him this week because he was really moving…and, yet, he had a mediocre FF game here. Why? The Lions defense was turned up to 10 all game; they played great…as well as they could. The Rams blocking was fine…DHendo looked great/speedy…but credit the Lions run D.

I say all that to then say…you know how I’ve been calling RB breakouts a week before they happen? Like good RBs that haven’t totally popped for FF yet and I think they’re about to go from RB2 to RB1…James Robinson, Leonard Fournette come to mind. Darrell Henderson was already doing better than the those guys I just mentioned leading into this, so me calling this ‘pop’ isn’t as shocking – but I think Hendo is about to go to another level of FF output…with 100+ yard rushing games and he keeps his TD pace elevated and he becomes a stronger RB1.

DH is a good buy low in that his owners respect him, but not fully…they’re suspicious…and just had this did vs. DET happen, and DH has not rushed for 100+ yards this season yet…and Cam Akers rumors of a return started happening (but it’s for the playoffs, maybe). I think all the recent news is pushing DH down a little more than he should be.

He may pop big against the Texans Week 8 because ‘the Texans’, so your buy lower-ish window is short.

McVay is stuck with DH…Sony Michel isn’t on the radar right now. But there is always risk McVay turns on DH for any given reason.

 -- Two WRs to point out in this game…

1) I plugged Kalif Raymond (6-115-0/8) 4+ weeks ago, before his first breakout moment…then Kalif had a zero game after a spike output game, and we all bailed on him because of it. Well, last week I re-pushed Kalif again ahead of this game…and he popped for 100+ yards here.

Whether we like it or not, he is the best WR on the team…but more importantly, as I’ve been stressing – he is Goff’s favorite WR throw…and it’s all he’s really got at WR. Raymond may have a down week here or there, because I’m not saying he’s a WR1…he’s just a solid WR2…but most people see him as WR3.5 garbage. He’s making tough catches and has some speed after the catch. He’d be a #4 WR on the Rams, but he’s the Lions’ #1. FF-Respect it.

2) Cooper Kupp (10-156-2/13) is the obvious #1 look for Stafford. No one can stop it, we’ve said this since Week 1 (but not before that, so I missed it initially). But you know who the #2 look for Stafford is…who he is most comfortable with? Van Jefferson (4-43-1/7).

I don’t know if Van will have the 2nd-best FF numbers among the WRs here in 2021, but Jefferson is moving closer and closer to surpassing Robert Woods (6-70-0/6) as the trusted #2 I don’t know that it will fully happen this year, but it’s coming – a very solid WR in a high functioning offense. He’ll be a solid PPR WR2 in the near future.

Jefferson is not overly athletic…he’s just good at catching footballs and getting open.

 -- The Rams are struggling on defense…and it’s being hidden by the string of soft opponents they’ve played. They are struggling at linebacker, big time. They just traded away LB Kenny Young, who seemed like a star early on this season…now banished.

It looks like Troy Reeder (8 tackles) is working 1st and 2nd-down, and a host of players are rotating in around that…including more-linebacker-than-corner Jalen Ramsey (6 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT). When Reeder worked as the main ILB last year…he was money for 10+ tackles per game.

You can keep using the Rams-DST on the easy matchups…like Week 8 at HOU. After that it gets a bit dicey on an elevating schedule, a Week 11 bye. Week 8 at HOU and maybe Week 13 at JAX is your last two uses. If this has been your main DST…you better come up with a Plan B ahead. This Rams-DST is nothing like the 2020 version with Brandon Staley.

 -- One of the reasons Darrell Henderson had a so-so game was the play of linebacker Jaylen Reeves-Maybin (9 tackles), who is seeing more and more snaps and his IDP numbers are jumping each week as well. Not sure he’s ready to be a full scale IDP starter – but he’s one to watch in deeper IDP leagues. He’s a Dan Campbell kind of ‘heart and hustle’ player.

Don’t think the Lions defense is a pushover for FF purposes either…

They held Baltimore to 19 points (3 of them on a 66-yd FG) Week 3. They held Minnesota to 19 points at MIN Week 5 (and another long, game-ending FG). The Rams scuffled to 28 points here.

The Lions defense plays all-out every week (except for when CIN drubbed them Week 6). They’re going to be trouble for any weak-minded offenses. Philly Week 8 and PIT Week 10 better watch out.

Snap Counts of Interest:

63 = Kupp

63 = Woods

61 = Jefferson

04 = DJax

57 = DHendo

08 = Michel

56 = Raymond

43 = St. Brown (and not one target)

33 = Hodge

32 = Allison

52 = Swift

20 = Jamaal W

Ross Jacobs

FFM

28 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Saints 13, Seahawks 10 

So apparently the answer to the age old question of who wins in a game between two terrible QB's is...nobody. This game was exactly painful to watch. Geno Smith and Jameis Winston are two of the most godawful QB's I've ever had the displeasure to watch. With all the interesting options available at that position in the year 2021, how any team could have either of these guys as a starter or backup is beyond me. Suffice it to say that neither team is going to be doing much winning while these guys are at the helm.

I don't think I really need to do a complete recap of all the “action” (if it can be called that) in this game. The Seahawks got a lucky opening TD when DK Metcalf literally stiff-armed his defender to the ground and took the resulting easy catch 84 yards for a TD. After that the Saints muddled around with literally every other play targeted to Alvin Kamara and they finally managed to score just enough to hold on for a win.

I'll talk more about Kamara below, but real quick, this was awful coaching by Pete Carroll. There is just no excuse for letting Kamara be wide open on dump pass after dump pass when the Saints literally have no other viable receiving threats. I'm starting to think Carroll is in some trouble and could get fired this year. Why else would he finally come out this week and openly admit that Russell is a big reason why he's been successful in the NFL and lasted so long as a coach? He's trying to sound humble and suck up to the QB, because Russell has more power than Carroll does and will have a say in who the coach is.

I don't care what the Saints record is, this is not a good team. Beating the Seahawks without Russell Wilson is supposed to be some kind of statement game? Maybe a statement that they are terrible too. The schedule is about to turn much more difficult, and the Saints aren't going to survive it. This team is headed for about 8 wins, maybe less.

We've known the Seahawks were done since Wilson got hurt. He's likely going to be back relatively soon, but they are in too big a hole now and the team around him just isn't' good enough. I don't see how they make the playoffs, not in the NFC West. The Jaguars are currently getting +3.5 against the Seahawks this week. Might be a best bet of the week.

Fantasy Notes

--RC was about to have a conniption as we watched Alvin Kamara (20-51-0, 10-128-1/11) take half the total plays for NO here (31 out of 63 to be exact). Whenever I see a game like this I'm reminded of just how stupid coaches like Bienemy and Reid are. Anyone that makes excuses for why their star player didn't get the ball more is full of crap. It isn't hard. You literally just give it to them every play. Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp...it isn't complicated. There's no reason in the world why Tyreek Hill shouldn't be getting 12 targets every single game. (You see how boring this game was? I turned this recap into complaining about Tyreek...)

The problem for Seattle wasn't Kamara running the ball. He's not a very good interior runner, never has been. The issue was that he would float out of the backfield, catch the ball and turn upfield...and there was no defender within 10 yards of him! How does that happen? You don't know that Kamara is getting every play? You don't know that Jameis can't hit squat except the short dump pass? You're afraid of Adam Trautman and Tre'Quan Smith beating you down the field? It doesn't matter either way. Kamara is a RB1 purely on volume. He is the Saints' offense.

*RC NOTE: To Ross’s point...AK has never been a great interior runner, and thus the trade for Mark Ingram. 

--Marquez Callaway (3-32-0/7) looks damn good. I'm not saying that to be funny or cute. He legit looks like a top 15-20 receiver. Trouble is Jameis can't hit the broadside of a barn with a handful of rice and it's dragging Callaway down. The Saints have four weaker pass defenses coming up, so I'm trying to hold Callaway where I can just in case, but it's really hit or miss with him right now.

In dynasty though I think we should be trying to acquire him super cheap. He's one of the most talented under the radar players available right now. He's most likely going to be the #1 WR after the team moves on from Michael Thomas next year. And there's no way Jameis is the starting QB for this team in 2022. I'm not sure he lasts much longer in 2021 before the team pulls the plug for Taysom. And if that happens then Callaway suddenly becomes quite usable in redraft as well. RC has Callaway in his top 10 Dynasty Stash list for a reason. If you can afford it in deep leagues, definitely grab him and hold for next year.

--DK Metcalf (2-96-1/5) got super lucky to get away with an obvious offensive PI here on his 84 yard TD. It saved his fantasy day. After that play though, he wasn't targeted again until much later in the game and only managed one more catch for 12 yards. So long as Geno is the QB he's going to struggle. The good news is Russ should be back sooner rather than later because he's one of the toughest, most hard working players in the NFL. So if you can acquire Metcalf from an antsy owner for cheap it could pay off nicely. Probably too hard to do though because of his one long play here on national tv.

--Everything else in this offense is dead until Russ comes back and even then Lockett will go back to being a sporadic WR2 but that's about it. If Alex Collins (16-35-0) is healthy then he should be a solid player to roll with. He was a bit banged up this week and split snaps with Rashaad Penny, but Collins still dominated the carries. I don't expect that to change, but it's something to monitor.

IDP Notes

--What a performance by Demario Davis (10 tackles, 2 sacks, 4 tfl, 1 pd). He's been one of the most underrated LB's in the league for years. Great to see him getting some recognition finally. He's the heart and soul of this Saints defense.

--Rookie LB Pete Werner (6 tackles) is coming on hot too. He has 29 total tackles the last 3 weeks as his snaps have gone up, and the number was only lower this week because the Seahawks ran so few plays. He's going to be a fixture of this defense for the next several years.

*RC NOTE: Davis with Werner emerging...that’s the reason we should start to fear the Saints run defense up with the Bucs run defense. 

Rush Yds per game allowed (low-to-high):

#1 TB (67.4) , #2 NO (79.0)

Yards per carry allowed (low-to-high):

#1 NO (3.3), #3 TB (3.7 ypc)

Rushing TDs allowed (low-to-high):

#4 TB (3), #5 NO (5)

Snap Counts of Interest

68 = Marquez Callaway

41 = Tre'Quan Smith

32 = Kenny Stills

64 = Adam Trautman

26 = Garrett Griffin

22 = Alex Collins

20 = Rashaad Penny

12 = Travis Homer

R.C. Fischer

FFM

27 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 7: Cardinals 31, Texans 5

Pretty much what we all expected…a 20+ point Cardinals win. The end was what we expected, but when Houston got out to a quick 5-0 lead…it was a bit strange. But then Arizona went into lockdown mode and scored the next 31 points to cruise to victory.

Not a ton of breaking news here, since the game went near as expected – but the Texans are changing QBs, might be trading Watson, and Arizona has a short week to face Green Bay. So, a few items to note. And then the late-breaking Mark Ingram trade now to discuss.

Arizona is now (7-0), and if they defeat Davante-less Green Bay this week…then they go to (8-0 and possibly a red carpet rolled out to (12-0) ready to host the Rams Week 14. I don’t think the Cards will go undefeated for 17 games…but if Russell Wilson doesn’t make it back for their Week 11 game…it’s going to be a watch party week-to-week after the Cards Week 12 BYE for the remaining old Miami Dolphins undefeated team members still with us.

Houston is now (1-6)…a season gone awry. With Tyrod back, perhaps they sneak another win or two but that’s about it.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- As I was getting ready to finish this report, news broke on the Mark Ingram trade by Houston to New Orleans. Something that I thought the Saints should have done the moment Tony Jones went down…but, I guess, the Texans still had playoff aspirations, so…

Ingram to the Saints makes sense – they were wearing out Alvin Kamara…he’s not built for that workload. Rare few are. Jameis Winston is terrible, so the Saints need to win via run game/RB-based offense and defense. The old RB-duo from a few years ago will slide back into their familiar roles ahead. A slight bump for Ingram (less touches, better O-Line), a slight tick down (on touch count) for AK…and you have to hope Winston doesn’t forget him for PPR work. Before the big catch party on MNF, AK was averaging just 3.0 catches per game with Winston for 22.6 rec. yards per game.

What happens to the Texans backfield?

Mark Ingram was getting 6-18 carries in games for 3.2 yards per carry (due to the fact they have the worst O-Line in football) and 1 whole TD all season. So, split up like 12 carries a game between Phillip Lindsay (2-8-0/4) and maybe a few for David Johnson (7-25-0, 5-27-0/6).

Lindsay will get the bulk of the carries, I suspect…but ‘who FF-cares’? Lindsay goes from 2-4 carries for nothing per game to 10-15 carries for 50-60 yards and rare TDs. I mean, it’s something but there are backup RBs functioning higher than the Texans #1 RB (for FF, especially PPR) – Pollard, Brandon Bolden when he gets the work, and all the Booker-Collins-Hubbard momentary RBs are in better places than Lindsay.

David Johnson may pick up a few extra carries, but again…who FF-cares? He was already the ‘3rd-down back’ and was doing FF-nothing really. In this Arizona game, with the revenge factor – same old DJnoK…slamming into the middle with no space open, working behind the worst offensive line in the league. Wherever DJ goes, the worst O-Line in the league is going to happen. And if I’m a DJ homer, and it’s really all DJ’s fault…then ‘who FF-cares?’, because the bottom line is the Houston RBs are near worthless in that offense for whatever reason you want to assign.

I’d take Lindsay as the flyer right now because that guy is a grinder and often pops occasional plays in the worst situations. I think Lindsay sees the biggest bump in activity from all this.

…and it wouldn’t surprise me if Johnson was traded to KC or Carolina before the deadline.

Lindsay inherits the most work here, but I really don’t FF-care all that much about any HOU RB. Lindsay, after a DJ trade (if), intrigues me more…a bit…not a lot.

AND THEN…

This may be just opening up Rex Burkhead (0-0-0) for more touches…they love ex-Patriots…

 -- Tyrod Taylor (DNP) changes the game a bit in that he doesn’t throw to the RBs as often/well. I’d rather have Davis Mills (23-32 for 135 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) from the PPR aspect for the remaining two RBs…but I don’t FF-care either way, really.

 -- Two worrisome Kyler Murray (20-28 for 261 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 6-10-0) items and two positive ones…

But first…notice Kyler had a lower yardage total here in a big win – the Texans pass D has been fairly stingy allowing yards this season. It’s not an auto 300+ for any QB. This pass defense is OK…and you can rather run all over their defense, as is what most opponents do.

Two negatives…

1) Kyler hasn’t thrown for 270+ yards in a game in four straight games.

2) The worst thing…Kyler has run for 1-6-10 yards in games since he tweaked his shoulder three weeks ago. When Kyler is not running for FF-gold, he’s a regular old ‘good’ QB1…not the dominant guy.

20 carries for 17 yards the past three games combined. This follows a similar run decline when he got dinged up late last season.

Two positives…

1) Kyler is on fire as a passer, however. 7 passing TDs the past two games. 17 passing TDs on the season…the 4th most by any QB this season to date…one behind Mahomes, two behind Stafford (Brady leads with 21).

2) Remember when many scouts/analysts said Kyler was too small to be an effective passer in the NFL? He’s currently #1 in the NFL in Completion Percentage at 73.5%.

Kyler is becoming mini-Mahomes, as we discussed/comped way back in his draft year/scouting report on CFM.

 -- Chase Edmonds (15-81-0, 1-9-0/3) got those extra carries I was predicting for this specific game script. Which means it’s a good time to explore trading him off as people crave any RB with good touches (see: the frenzy over P Lindsay on waivers post-Ingram trade).  

Edmonds is talented, but he is shutout of the short TDs by James Conner and blocked from excessive PPR work because Arizona is rarely losing and in hurry up…and Kyler’s high comp. rate is even more amazing because he’s doing it throwing downfield, not dumping to the backfield guys.

 -- DeAndre Hopkins (7-53-1/9) is supposedly questionable this week. If he’s out, who benefits?

A.J. Green (3-66-0/3) has been doing solid Emmanuel Sanders type work…good/experienced hand on a high functioning offense. Lower targets in games for AJG scare you, but while everyone is chasing target counts – the Cardinals WRs don’t need big target numbers because of Kyler’s amazing Comp. Pct.

Christian Kirk (4-50-1/5) has been with AJG…riding the Kyler wave. Hopkins rules and then AJG-Kirk performs well in his wake.

Rondale Moore (2-17-0/3) would be the biggest winner, likely…going from #4 situational WR to the higher snap count #3 WR.

GB rookie ace CB Eric Stokes could take out Green or Kirk (but probably neither, fully, as he doesn’t shadow as much). Stokes will likely rarely be on Moore.

Zach Ertz (3-66-1/5) scored a TD here, but he’s really no different than C.J. Uzomah, etc. Solid enough TE, a little slow afoot, but working on a good offense/with a good+ QB, so solid numbers can happen.

 -- I don’t know what got into Texans DL Jonathan Greenard (3 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 TFLs, 1 PD) but it’s white hot for IDP…

At least one sack in every game he’s played (4) this season. 2.0 sacks in each of his last two games, 6.0 sacks on the season…playing 50%+ of the snaps in games.

 -- Not to be outdone, Markus Golden (2 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 FF, 3 QB hits) has started in place of Chandler Jones the past two games and has racked up 4.0 sacks in those two games….6.0 sacks this season. He’s #1 in the NFL in forced fumbles (4).

 -- The Arizona-DST is still trucking along. They are catching GB with their best two WRs out…and a problematic O-Line Week 8.

They might get Jimmy G. Week 9. Darnold Week 10. Maybe Geno Week 11.

This defense is so good, you can fairly confidently use vs. GB…and might get a run from here where only Week 12 (bye) and Week 14 (Stafford) are scary situations before Week 17 at Dallas. If so, you may not need to sit on LAC for the next 2-3 weeks waiting for the good pairing situations. It all depends on how fast Russell Wilson returns to alter the schedule for the Arizona-DST.  

Snap Counts of Interest:

60 = AJ Green

59 = Hopkins

51 = Kirk

37 = Rondale

49 = Edmonds

21 = Conner

35 = Ertz

21 = Dem Harris

53 = Cooks

35 = Collins

27 = Conley

24 = Amendola

13 = C Moore

30 = D Johnson

21 = Ingram

04 = Burkhead

04 = Lindsay