- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Patriots 23, Ravens 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was a back-and-forth game early…not much offense, not much to see, not an interesting watch. The Patriots took a 13-10 lead into halftime and then the rains really took over and by the end of the game it was almost unwatchable…like, literally…the cameras were wet/soaked on the lenses, the rain coming down so hard you couldn’t hardly see the action anyway…nor did the players have great visibility.
Credit the Patriots for being the tougher team in adverse conditions and really handling the Ravens. Baltimore scored a junk TD with 0:13 left, otherwise the Pats were walking away with a double-digit win in a game they were 7.0 dogs in.
The Ravens of 2019 are dead, replaced by a cheap imitation in 2020. Think about this – the Ravens have about the same core group returning, plus added a bunch of high profile defensive free agents, plus added J.K. Dobbins, plus added young WRs. This was the best regular season team in 2019, maybe the best, most dominant team I’ve ever seen…and a year later, with more firepower names added…they are a Week 12 loss (if) to Pittsburgh away from being a middle tier wild card team. Amazing what can happen in just one year.
What happened? Well, the defense didn’t get worse…so you have to look at the offense and blame the quarterback mostly. Same RBs, plenty of RB talent. Same WRs, young guys added. Baltimore lost all-world OT Ronnie Stanley a few weeks ago and Lamar Jackson doesn’t seem to have that old magic. The QB brought them that high in 2019…and you have to say he brought them that low/to the middle in 2020. We saw Cam Newton have a pop/MVP year a few years back, and then a bunch of losing record play since. It’s not an unheard-of thing.
Speaking of Cam…two wins in a row and he’s got the Pats back into the playoff picture, and everyone is all excited! So, OK…they beat the Jets by a miracle late collapse by NYJ two weeks ago, and then outlasted the Ravens in a monsoon this week. They’re back because of that? OK, believe it if you want.
They will probably beat Houston this week, because Houston is terrible, and that will REALLY get people talking. I see a path to 8 wins, but I’d be shocked if they got to 9 wins…and I would project more 7-8 wins. I’m not convinced of this team at all.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- All these backfields in this game are messy…weird…
NEW ENGLAND:
Damien Harris (22-121-0, 0-0-0/0) can’t stop running for 100+ yards in a game, and yet Rex Burkhead (6-31-0, 4-35-2/5) is the equal/better FF back.
Since Week 4, Harris has rushed for 100+ yards in a game three times in 6 games.
Since Week 4, Harris has averaged 9.6 PPR PPG…and Rex has averaged 9.6 PPR PPG.
Harris has three 100+ yard rushing games, two catches, and 1 TD total for the entire season.
Rex is averaging 3.0 catches per game his last 7 games with 6 TDs in that same span.
BALTIMORE:
They all suck, for FF.
The RB trio is all splitting meager carries, not getting close for TD runs, and not getting much pass game work hardly at all.
In nine games this season, the RB trio has 23 catches (2.4 per game) for 179 yards (19.8 yards per game) and no TDs. They’ve also split 7 rushing TDs near equal among them…Gus leading with 3 TDs…in 9 games.
Essentially the Ravens are giving us three RB4s to try and find hope in for a given week.
Who would have thought Rex Burkhead would consistently be the best PPR back among Harris-White-Michel-Dobbins-Ingram-Edwards? Welcome to 2020.
-- Lamar Jackson (24-34 for 249 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 11-55-0) isn’t playing terrible fantasy football, he’s just not that guy from 2019.
YTD, Lamar is 8th in PPG (4pts per pass TD) among QBs who have played 6 or more games. In 6pts per pass TD leagues…he drops out of the top 12. He’s kinda held that pattern all season…not up with the big boys, but inside the QB1 ranks in 4pts, but outside the QB1 performances in 6pts per pass TD.
He could finish strong and get into the top 5 by season’s end, but I don’t see it. However, the schedule is very favorable to do just that…finish strong and get into the top 5 PPG among 4pts per pass TD QBs.
-- Suddenly, Willie Snead (5-64-2/7) is the Ravens WR to have, not Dez Bryant. Snead, in his last 3 games, is averaging 4.7 catches, 72.3 yards, 0.67 TDs per game.
I find it very hard to trust any receiver with Lamar.
Lamar is trying to get the ball to Marquise Brown (2-14-0/7)…it’s not working. 2.0 rec., 18.3 yards per game the past 3 games…and he’s been a WR3 overall this season, and getting worse as the season goes on.
-- Jakobi Meyers (5-59-0/7 + a 24-yard TD pass) is WAYYY better than Marquise Brown, or Snead, or any WR for fantasy from these two rosters now.
I’m so impressed with how well Meyers is playing ball right now – this was a tough Ravens coverage, on him focused, and he played about as well as any WR I’ve seen take on this Ravens secondary. This Meyers thing is going to have legs into 2021+. Some guys just have ‘it’ for playing WR, he does. Not a WR1, but a nice WR2 in PPR.
-- NE rookie SAF Kyle Dugger (12 tackles, 0.5 TFLs) played his first game as a starter…and made a nice debut. He’s a talent.
Dugger’s tackles per snap played ratios are great. If he’s going to be a starter now…he might go on a similar IDP run as Jeremy Chinn has for Carolina. I want to see another game -- but guessing ahead…I think it’s more favorable than not for Dugger.
Snap Counts of Interest:
32 = Harris
20 = Rex
10 = White
29 = Dobbins
17 = Ingram
15 = Gus
62 = Mq Brown
45 = Snead
36 = Duvernay
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Packers 24, Jaguars 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
When I watched this live, I was like…good for the Jags, they played a tough game and shoulda won this thing. It was 17-17 after three quarters. 20-17 Jags into the 4th-quarter. Green Bay up 24-20 and Jacksonville drove with 2+ minutes left down to the GB 35-yard line, and the Jags had plenty of time to get into the end zone to win…and then on 2nd & 10 the Pack sacked Jake Luton, then on 3rd-down they sacked him again…then it was 4th & a million and…ball game. It was a ‘scare’ for Green Bay.
But when I re-watched this, I realized the Jags tried hard but the Packers were kinda going through the motions on a game they thought they’d win easy, and in the cold, wet, wind they did what they had to do. The Packers blew some opportunities and kinda muddled. It was one of those games where it was close, but not really…I don’t think the Packers were ever really panicked.
Green Bay is now (7-2) and their schedule is begging them to finish (14-2), but 12-13 wins is probably more likely. After they face the Colts Week 11…they may not play a team with a winning record (by season’s end) the rest of the season.
Jacksonville loses its 8th in a row. Trying to get into that Tank for Trevor race/#1 spot, and I’m sure Trevor is praying the Jags figure out a way to get to that #1 pick versus having to play in New York. The Jaguars just placed rookie CB C.J. Henderson on I.R., and he’s like their best player…so a (1-15) finish is in range more and more.
Not a lot of earth-shattering notes from this game. It went according to plan, for the most part, and then the cold, wet, wind affected things as well.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4-149-1/6) is on a hot run the past few weeks. Three notes…
1) This could’ve all been Allen Lazard’s FF-goodness, but when I like a WR they get hurt and when I hate a WR -- they get these numbers.
2) MVS scored a 78-yard TD here aided by a referee knocking into/picking a tackler and springing him for the extra 30 yards and a score, because of course he did. I’ve never had something like that happen for one of my FF starts, but my opponents get this type of stuff all the time...it seems, doesn’t it?
3) I’d sell MVS off this as fast as you could…thrown into a deal to sweeten it. This will disappear fast when Lazard returns. There is no MVS future for FF.
-- Davante Adams (8-66-1/12) got tangled up feet with a DB and hurt his calf/ankle and left the game for some time, but then returned for an amazing, leaping TD catch to seal the win. I bet he’s sore, but he’ll be fine for Week 11…is my assumption.
-- Robert Tonyan (3-33-0/4) had a ‘meh’ FF game, or actually…this is TE1 work these days…but note Rodgers just missed him on a 15+ yard throw, and then a heart-breaking 20-40+ yarder where Tonyan was sprinting open downfield and Rodgers underthrew it and was offline with it…or it might have been a long TD catch and run.
In a sea of TE2s trying to have a TE1 week…Tonyan is still viable.
-- D.J. Chark (4-56-0/5) had a ‘meh’ FF game, but also note he was open by 2-3 yards on a 50+ yard bomb TD but Luton underthrew it/the wind caught it and DJC had to stop and wait and the DB caught up and the ball went off the DBs helmet. You almost had +12 to his PPR week.
-- Keelan Cole (5-47-1/5) had a good game and returned a punt for a TD. There’s one thing you can count on with Cole – there will be no effort the following week to get him the ball, no matter how well he plays.
Facing the Steelers this week…bet against him. It’s a shame, he deserves better.
-- Everybody wants James Robinson (23-109-0, 2-3-0/5)…in the sense that they pine for him, if they didn’t get him preseason, as the answer to all their RB issues.
There is no answer to your RB issues at this stage…and, actually, a whole bunch of answers every week at the same time.
If you don’t have Cook-Kamara (or healthy CMC) the names atop the RB PPG board are guys who are basically the RBs who haven’t gotten hurt…or the names of the guys that have replaced those who got hurt.
D’Andre Swift, Gio Bernard, Antonio Gibson, Nyheim Hines, J.D. McKissic are RB1s who are one good game and one bad game by Robinson away from being the same output per game guys the 2nd-half of the season. You’re caught up in ‘names’, when there is RB opportunity all over.
Kalen Ballage was a flyer pickup a few weeks ago and is now an RB1 to believe in. You should’ve had McKissic in PPR all along the past 6-7 weeks. But you want to pine for James Robinson instead.
You think you have RB issues…everyone has RB issues. Solutions are cheap off waivers week-to-week, they are expensive chasing the James Robinson’s of the world. Any RB getting the bulk of the work is valuable right now – the best ones are those that fall into the end zone more frequently.
Since Week 7, here’s the top 10 PPR PPG RB leaders (2 or more games played):
Dalvin Cook
Kamara
J. Robinson
Nyheim Hines
Antonio Gibson
Gio Bernard
Jamaal Williams
Wayne Gallman
Kalen Ballage
Josh Jacobs
Four names you crave…six names you think are ‘my RBs are killing me’.
-- The review on Jake Luton’s (18-35 for 169 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) 2nd start in the NFL?
He did as well as he could’ve on the road, in wet-cold-win conditions with an inferior team. He looks totally capable, and for the 2nd week in a row…he should have been on the winning team. Had a chance late but couldn’t seal the deal.
-- The GB-DST is doing OK, they’ve had some good matchups lately, they are winning games – they just aren’t scoring much for FF. They are 19th in FF scoring per game among all DSTs YTD.
They held a weak Jags offense to 20 points here, but just one turnover and a solid 3.0 sacks. You hope for more FF scoring from them in these types of matchups, but GB-DST doesn’t give it to you typically.
They have a solid schedule the rest of the way, but I don’t know that they’ll score enough real FF points to matter. They’ll win games, but not help you win FF games perhaps. But in a sea of bad DST tallies this year, you have to find hope in strange places sometimes. Their schedule ahead is at least something to consider.
Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = A Jones
31 = J Williams
08 = Ervin
56 = Chark
55 = Conley
52 = Cole
53 = JRob
10 = Ogunbowale
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Browns 10, Texans 7
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Wow...was this a waste of my precious time to re-watch. The most exciting thing that happened was when Nick Chubb ran a long way with the ball and made a quick left turn at Albuquerque/before the goal line and ruined fantasy owner’s hearts -- but filled mine with joy as I got the cheap Texans cover. Otherwise, this was an incredibly boring game played in the cold and wind and involved two teams that are pretty weak and one of them won. My main note from this game…it was terrible and provided not much to discuss.
The Texans are so bad, but you have to say the Browns are too…they let Houston hang around all game until the final minute. I don’t know if the Texans have any purchase protection plan on Deshaun Watson, but they may want to look into a possible refund of their purchase.
The Texans have fallen to (2-7) and man are they checked out on this season. No spark. No enthusiasm. Just going through the motions. They might get to 4 wins at best.
The Browns are not much better than Houston but are somehow (6-3) and running towards the playoffs. If they beat Philly Week 11, I will start to believe they are getting to 9 wins and the playoffs. Lose Week 11, and it will be a fight to get there.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Nick Chubb (19-126-1, 0-0-0/1) looked fine, like 101% ready for action. Everyone's all excited about him again, with good reason, because of the 100+ yards and a TD…and an ‘almost’ TD.
Consider two things…
1) His late game long run was fluky, as Houston was just trying to stop the run-up-=the-middle drive killing them and Chubb went outside and then went untouched down the sidelines with barely anyone chasing him. Nice moment, but if that 59-yard run didn’t happen…18 carries for 67 yards and a TD. Nice, but not ‘wowza’.
2) Once again, Chubb saw 1 target in a game.
Targets in his five games played this season: 1-1-1-0-1.
If you have him in PPR, you better get a TD with you 100 yards…or you have another Damien Harris.
-- I’d use this Chubb moment to get the real RB1 (PPR) from this team – Kareem Hunt (19-104-0, 3-28-0/4). If any Hunt owner fears Chubb, and more do than you think…they might think they’re dumping Hunt on you. Not cheap, but some motivation to sell if you give it to them.
Hunt has been really good all season. Since Week 2, he’s 8th in PPR PPG among RBs (5 or more games played). He’s a steady PPR RB1, who feels like a backup people fear will be the 30% share guy in no time. At no time, has that ever been true this season…he’s been the better 50/50 a lot of the time. Hunt can co-exist with Chubb and be an RB1 in PPR doing it.
Everyone is crying about wanting to trade for James Robinson, wishing/thinking he’s the answer to their RB woes…while Hunt is like 2.0 PPR PPG away from the same production this entire season, and no one is craving him the same way.
-- The BIG REVENGE GAME for Duke Johnson (14-54-0, 0-0-0/1), look out world…a great RB1 event is about to happen!!! https://youtu.be/_asNhzXq72w
I forgot one rule that trumps ‘revenge game’…the fact that Duke Johnson sucks at football. I overlooked the most obvious thing.
David Johnson will come back and claim his starting job in two weeks and produce these miserable fantasy numbers. Like, I’ve said this past week – you don’t need to hold DJ if you see/need a spark now with a roster move. DJ will return to this awful offense that doesn’t throw to him just in time for the run game schedule to get super-tough. DJ is an RB1.5-2.0 in this environment with so many weak RB scoring weeks…but he’s not killing it, just like most RBs are not. You’re just hoping your guy falls into the end zone. Rex Burkhead has been more valuable than the HOU RBs.
-- Jordan Akins (1-5-0/1) has lost all his momentum from when he got hurt and missed 4 weeks. The promising start to the season has turned into a giant pile of nothing.
You see, the Texans’ season is over…so it’s a great time to see if this Darren Fells (1-15-0/1) kid can be the future for the organization. Sure, he’s a 34+ year old journeyman tight end…but he has the look/movements of a 33+ year old tight end. You go Romeo Crennel! Lead the way to the future, our fearless leader. https://youtu.be/yalRLvkn_Ig?t=15
-- Rashard Higgins (3-48-0/4) drew too much Bradley Roby covering him + the windy, low passing day, so his potential for a nice fantasy game was squashed…BUT…
Higgins did lead all receivers in yards and (tied) in catches here…in a down receiving game for all.
Higgins did see two other targets for 30+ yards, wiped away by P.I. penalties by the defense.
Higgins just looked like Baker’s guy, but I’m not sure what that is FF-worth.
This potential is hiding behind the last two games played in windy, low scoring, low pass game contests. The last time CLE played in decent weather and OBJ was out (Week 7), Higgins caught 6 passes for 110 yards.
-- The Browns last two games being played in windy, blustery, offensive suppressing conditions is a bit of a head fake on their decent/nice fantasy scoring those games. The Browns have a solid enough defense, but not great -- but they do have a few good matchups ahead that might include sloppy or cold weather to help them…
Week 11 vs. PHI is taking on a bad offense and bad O-Line.
Week 12 at JAX is favorable.
Week 15 at NYG could be a good matchup in bad (for offense) conditions, and ditto Week 16 at NYJ.
Good schedule and this is a team that won’t be tanking or checked out…they’ll be in the wild card to the end.
Snap Counts of Interest:
38 = Hodge
38 = Landry
38 = Higgins
16 = DPJ
55 = Hooper
36 = Bryant
23 = Njoku
38 = Hunt
28 = Chubb
54 = Duke J
02 = Prosise
34 = Fells
24 = Akins
18 = Ph Brown
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Raiders 37, Broncos 12
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The odd thing about this game was…it ended up a blowout, but Denver was going toe-to-toe the 1st-half, and at the goal line and just threw a TD pass to take a 12-10 lead (XP pending) but a penalty erased it and on the next play Drew Lock threw a terrible pick and the game turned from there. Denver could’ve had the halftime lead, but they blew it and then just gave it away from there. The Raiders didn’t win this as much as they just let Denver faceplant and walked right by them.
Las Vegas is now (6-3), and headed to the playoffs…huge game with KC Week 11, one I assume they’ll lose big and then go on with their wild card chase – which they will get with a 10 win or better season. If LV defeats KC Week 11…all hell will break loose in the AFC West! Still, KC is going to win that division.
Denver (3-6) is moving towards its destiny…out of the playoffs, contemplating firing Vic Fangio, but needed to replace/dump Drew Lock. All three of those things are John Elway’s fault…but nothing is ever Elway’s fault, so none of them may be addressed this season. Terrible schedule the rest of the way for a team that is checking out…Denver should finish with 4-5 wins tops.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- How long does Vic Fangio…or John Elway…let this Drew Lock (23-47 for 257 yards, 1 TD/4 INTs) go on for?
7 TDs/10 INTs this season…with a 55.0% Comp. Pct.
9 TD passes in his last 10 games, back to 2019…Justin Herbert is getting that in like 3 games, as a rookie. Lock is not under major duress due to a bad O-Line…Lock just sucks. The faster they admit it, the faster they can change their fate.
…but John Elway is so awful at picking QBs, it doesn’t really matter.
Because Denver is so bad at QB, whether they stick with Lock…turn to Brett Rypien…or draft a new wrong one in 2021…all the related weapons are hurt by it for FF.
Tim Patrick (4-61-0/6) is having to pull off miracle catches to even have catches week-to-week.
Jerry Jeudy (4-68-0/8) is an average WR, made out to be a great WR. He’s just ‘there’…and catching just 49.3% of his targets, a bad number for a WR. He officially has 3 drops, but he has 6+ by my count…and I’m not a harsh judge of those things – he’s just getting favorable calls from the scorekeepers to protect their guy.
Noah Fant (3-18-0/7) can only be so good in this mess. Ditto the outlook for Courtland Sutton ahead.
A tougher schedule ahead for the QB/WRs/team…I want nothing to do with the DEN WRs for the ROS. And I assume for 2021 as well, but let’s see what happens this offseason. I assume it all goes poorly.
-- But I’d rather have the Denver WRs than the Las Vegas ones for fantasy. Why? The Raiders wide receivers never see the ball consistently.
Nelson Agholor (1-8-0/4) is their #1 WR…and he got 4 targets here, continuing his string of low target games.
Henry Ruggs (3-31-0/4) and Bryan Edwards (1-16-0/1) are ghosts…why did they draft all these WRs, not to throw to them?
Even Darren Waller (3-37-0/5) is quietly stalling out. You think Waller is some kind of TE god you wish you had for FF right now, because your TEs suck? Waller has not had a game over 37 yards in three weeks…no games over 50 yards the past five games.
Really, looking back on it, Waller has had two monster games and then a bunch of random/solid/not-exciting work…just like most TEs are putting in.
Since Week 8, Waller is the #9 TE in PPR PPG.
Since Week 3, Waller is top 5 in PPG, but he nowhere close to Travis Kelce (18.3 PPR PPG to 11.3)…but is a half-step better than the throng of TE2s trying to be TE1s (Waller is 1.5 PPR PPG from being #10 since Week 3). He’s closer to falling out of TE1 status than he is getting close to Kelce. BUT, with that said, all non-Kelce TEs suck and Waller is probably the next best thing among all the TE things out there…but it’s not been as good as you think, if you don’t own him and know it/live with it lately.
-- Jon Gruden is like Mike Zimmer…if he can get a lead, he will run it every play if he can.
Las Vegas ran the ball 41 times this game for 203 yards and 4 TDs.
There were 41 rushed + 16 catches in this game = 57 touches.
46 of the 57 touches were to run game and RB pass game.
WRs saw 8 touches total. You can’t exist with that for fantasy with their WRs.
Devontae Booker (16-81-2, 1-2-0/1) matters on a certain level. Lately, he’s getting, as a backup, similar touches to J.K. Dobbins or Jonathan Taylor or Darrell Henderson (among others)…and Booker is much more productive with his work of late – 3 TDs his last 2 games.
-- Let me just throw this out there…
The Raiders-DST has started to get back their injured and COVID DBs. Their D-Line is starting to rush the pass a little bit better. Their schedule is easing up. They held Cleveland to 6 points in the wind/cold Week 8. They held Denver to 12 points here with 5 turnovers. They are slowly moving from bottom 5-10 in defensive metrics to middle of the pack this season.
All that to say…Week 13 at NYJ…the Raiders-DST may be worth the early pickup if your league is hoarding DSTs (as they seem to be all over this year. Why? Because all defenses stink unless they are playing bad offenses, so people are searching in vain for DST hope).
Snap Counts of Interest:
45 = Ruggs
43 = Agholor
34 = Renfrow
20 = Bry Edwards
43 = Jacobs
26 = Booker
40 = Gordon
21 = Lindsay
10 = Royce Freeman
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Lions 30, Football Team 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I had forgotten, until the re-watch, that the Lions led this game 24-3 midway through the 3rd-quarter…and it seemed over at the time. Three TDs over the next 15 minutes of play got the F-Team tied with 6+ minutes left to play. They exchanged field goals from there, with F-Team tying it 27-27 with 0:16 left.
Looks like we’re heading to OT.
BUT…with that 0:16 left, the first play of the drive, the Lions threw an incomplete pass but Chase Young trying to win the award for stupidest play of 2020…was two steps from Matt Stafford as the ball was thrown and then he came up to a turned-away-Stafford and pushed him from behind, not hard, but hard enough…and drew the roughing penalty – and suddenly the Lions were a 8-15-yard play away from possible makeable FG range. Detroit then got a quick 9-yard throw, and then Matt Prater nailed a 59-yarder at the buzzer to win it.
Tag this loss to Chase Young, who has quietly been terrible/a disappointment all season. Young has a meager 3.5 sacks this season, and just 4 QB hits total…Everson Griffen had 5 QB hits in this game alone. But Washington couldn’t draft Justin Herbert #2 because they had Dwayne Haskins, so they were all set…and Chase Young was so generational. So far…not a great decision for a franchise who should change their name to the ‘Bad Decisions’…
I’m starting to think maybe Ron Rivera is just a horrific head coach. I can’t figure it out. Washington should be in 1st-place in this crap division, but Rivera is like an unlucky rabbit’s foot making decisions and losing close games. Rivera is (2-15) in his last 17 games coached. Washington is (2-7) and somehow still alive in the NFC East race. We see them hitting 4 wins and not winning the division.
Detroit is now (4-5) and still in the wild card race…and they have a schedule that might allow them to not only stay in the race for a bit, but make a little noise for the NFC North if GB falters. Detroit has three winnable games ahead…at CAR, HOU, at CHI…the Lions could (in make-believe world) be (7-5) hosting GB, who with some pro-Lions luck could by (8-5) going into that game…a battle for 1st-place could ensue.
Now, this is the Lions we’re talking about…so there is NO WAY they could have that happen, but it’s not totally dead for them yet. We project them to wind up with 6-7 wins at this point by season’s end.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s start with Alex Smith (38-55 for 390 yards, 0 TD/0 INT)…
Back-to-back games with 300+ yards passing has everyone excited but note that this is not ‘normal’ for Alex Smith, or desired by the coaches.
The F-Team was 20-3 in Week 9 before closing the gap some late, and down 24-3 here, before racing back into things. When they’re down big they are throwing, a lot, obviously. So, Smith has a ton of attempts the past two games, but it’s for lower yards per…and he has 1 TD/3 INTs total in 104 pass attempts this season.
Smith is playing an even more dink-and-dunk game than ever before. If you want big F-Team pass game work/output, you better pray Washington gets down big fast and has to all-throw back into it.
Comments on some guys Smith is throwing to…
J.D. McKissic (7-43-0/15) is going to lead all NFL RBs in catches this season IF Smith stays in the rest of the season. 14 and 15 targets in Smith’s two starts…and if Washington gets up and isn’t throwing as much, this number will dip – but JDM will still be the top target for the dink-and-dunker.
Logan Thomas (4-66-0/5) could suffer a dip when/if the pass game dips when Washington ever plays with a lead/close in games. The Washington O-Line is falling apart, and Thomas is needed for blocking more than ever. He’ll still get you 3-4 catches in games, and then you just hope Smith throws a TD to him…but Smith has 1 TD pass in 104 pass attempts this season, so good luck with all that.
Cam Sims (4-54-0/5) still looks really good to me, but in 55 throws with Sims playing 95%+ of the snaps here…Sims only saw 5 targets. Makes me worry about getting too excited about the future, but I want to be…
Steve Sims (5-46-0/6) got good targeting, but he is really inconsequential for the most part. It’s like he’s not even there. When he gets a target, you’re like…oh, yeah he’s on the team still. He played 45% of the snaps in a heavy pass game
-- Matt Stafford (24-33 for 276 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) hurt his throwing hand in this game…and has been a disappointment all season, and here facing what was the #1 pass defense in the NFL at the time – he gets 3 TD passes with 276 yards. I can’t explain how football works…
It was a clunky performance, but it worked. Stafford hit a 55-yard TD pass to Marvin Hall (2-61-1/3) early…where the covering DB bumped into Hall and fell down and left Hall wide open for an easy score. Two key 3rd-stops were wiped off by late hit penalties to extend drives to give Stafford more numbers. It was one of the luckiest games he’ll ever play…but it worked for FF.
Stafford is playing through the hand injury and may get Kenny Golladay back soon, which will kill off any Marvin Hall FF-hopes and send Marvin Jones (8-96-1/10) back to purgatory.
Thank you, Marvin…for doing nothing early in the season and thus me cutting you and then you score 4 TDs in your last 3 games. Not for FF-me he hasn’t.
-- Everson Griffen (3 tackles, 1 sack, 5 QB hits) has had a terrible season so far, but he has played Washington twice the past 3 games…once with Dallas and once with Detroit (after his trade). In those two games, Griffen has 2.0 sacks (of 3.0 all season) and 7 QB hits (of 9 all season).
The best pass rushing IDP facing Washington’s O-Line is money for sacks…and they just lost another key OL for this week/Week 11!!
-- Griffen had those 5 QB hits, and the Lions tallied 8 QB hits in all…a very average/normal amount for a team in a game. The F-Team, with it’s great D-Line…they got 1 QB hit all game with Smith throwing 55 times. What in the Football Team is going on? Washington had 5 sacks and 9 QB hits the week before, so I don’t know how they flopped here. It’s not like Detroit has a great O-Line. I’ll assume a blip until further notice.
Washington-DST faces Cincy, the 2nd-most sacked team in the NFL. If they do not log 4+ sacks this week, something is wrong with the F-Team defense.
*Late note: D’Andre Swift went on concussion protocol on Thursday, with no signs prior from game play etc., so it had to happen in practice. If he is out…I think Kerryon Johnson might get a 70/30 split of work here and be a surprise of the week. Most will think AP, but AP played 8 snaps this game…Kerryon 9. Not that the snap count proves anything…more proves Detroit is ‘over’ AP, potentially. Worst case, Kerryon would be a PPR back in a sense.
Snap Counts of Interest:
43 = Swift
09 = Kerryon
07 = AP
86 = McLaurin
83 = Cam Sims
40 = Stv Sims
29 = Is Wright
62 = McKissic
33 = Gibson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Giants 27, Eagles 17
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game really struck a chord with me, a very telltale, pivotal game that I think could change the Eagles management/team for 2021+.
Consider the backdrop going into this game…
The Eagles went in leading the much-maligned NFC East with 3 wins, and the rest of the division had 2 wins. Philly facing NYG in a game that gave them a chance to leap to 4 wins, effectively putting down the much maligned Giants, and really pushing away with the division. All the Eagles had to do was win this Week 10 game…beat the lowly Giants, a team without Saquon Barkley AND with Daniel Jones at QB on purpose. Plus, the Eagles just had an extra week to prepare and got back healthy a couple players.
This had to be a game that the Eagles stormed in off the jump and put the Giants away with impunity and thus send a statement.
The exact opposite of all of that happened.
It would be one thing if the Giants got a fluky fumble, or a tipped INT pick-six, or whatever luck could fall their way to get out to a lead…even so, a superior, well-prepared Eagles team would overcome that and win this game. Instead, the Giants rammed it down the Eagles’ throats…it was 14-3 NYG at halftime, probably the worst the Eagles have looked all year (and that’s saying something).
The Eagles climbed back into it, as you would expect from a (supposed) superior team, just down 21-17 with 20+ minutes left of play. Surely, the Eagles would win this. The Giants stuffed the Eagles for the final 20 minutes and extended their lead to double-digits and really WON this game. No luck – just the Giants, who are not good, being the better team.
If I were the General Manager of this Eagles team, strike that…if I were the owner of the Eagles team, I would have watched this game in the context and then decided I was going to fire everyone and trade Carson Wentz in the offseason, unless a miracle playoff run occurred at season’s end. We could make a lot of valid excuses for Philly – all the O-Line and WR/TE injuries, etc. But there was no excuse for being outplayed by the Giants in this spot – outplayed, and out-efforted. The Giants played like the more confident, urgent, sound team…whereas the Eagles just slept through this HUGE game.
Doug Pederson should be under the gun big time for this game, for this team laying such an egg (on top of how this whole season is going). Carson Wentz, the verdict is in – you are not the leader of men to take this team to the next level. You are a solid, gritty QB…but you did not deserve to replace Nick Foles after the Super Bowl season. And for that, and the sad state of this roster and now coaching staff – the GM should get the boot as well. A fresh ‘reboot’ is needed. Doug Pederson deserves to coach again; Wentz deserves another chance too…just not here. It’s time for a change.
The funny thing is, the Eagles are in great shape to win the division at (3-5-1). The Giants are at 3 wins too, but at (3-7). The Eagles have a game lead, or more in a sense. They have the upper hand in the NFC East. However, their schedule does not bode well. If they lose to at CLE this week, then I don’t think the Eagles will win this division. If Philly loses Week 11, they then face SEA, at GB, NO, at ARI the following 4 weeks. They could be (3-10-1) after Week 15 if they lose to CLE this week…but still possibly just be a game out of first place. Beating CLE this week gives them some cushion to lose their next four in a row and still be OK. We see them finishing with 6 wins…and that could be good enough to win the division because (6-9-1) will beat (6-10).
The Giants played really well here, considering the team that they have…and that’s been true all year. One of the best defenses in the NFL, as we’ve been discussing since about Weeks 3-4, all while they were mocked by all the analysts. NYG needs to find 4 wins their final 6 games to get to 7 wins. It’s not likely, considering their schedule ahead. We see 6 wins max., and that may leave them a half game short of the NFC East, but that’s with the big IF that Philly gets to 6 wins too.
The Giants are the best team in the NFC East…I just don’t know if there is enough time for them to pass Philly to claim it.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Carson Wentz (21-37 for 208 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) played some bad football here. He had some of his best weapons back, so that excuse is off the table.
Wentz is becoming new-Jameis (Winston) – so much better down 14-21 points and scrapping to a close loss with garbage points late. Some of Wentz’s issue was an emerging great Giants defense…some of it is that Wentz is a ‘C’ QB that analysts still proclaim is an ‘A’ because he had a hot stretch of games in 2017. Since 2018, the Eagles are 17-18-1 with him as a starter…in a weak division. This season, he now has 12 TDs/12 INTs total in 9 starts with 58.1% Comp. Pct.
Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson and Joe Burrow have bad O-Lines too…they don’t ever look like they are bust QBs, but Wentz does every other series.
Jalen Hurts (2-0-0) SHOULD be inserted Week 12 if they lose Week 11 at CLE, but he won’t be. I’ve seen this a million times in the NFL with head coaches, Doug Pederson, for right or for wrong, is going down on the Wentz ship. So, much so that Hurts looks like he has not been developed or prepared for such an event…on purpose, in a sense. However, the new age QBs…they don’t need ‘reps’ and practice with the 1s, if they’re good enough they’ll just step in like they’ve been there for years (see: Herbert, Burrow, Luton, Tua).
I know this, once Hurts goes in…the city will not let Pederson change back. I think he knows that and is trying to make it NOT happen, yet. The Eagles will probably win the division, so Pederson will believe he was right all along. BUT a loss at CLE is likely going to lead to a change…even if that is Pederson fired and an assistant elevated after a CLE loss.
-- I’ll judge the WRs/TEs as if Wentz is going to be there for a while but note everything goes ‘up in the air’ if Hurts takes over – totally different style of offense.
Alshon Jeffrey (0-0-0/1) debuted/2020 and nobody cared. He doesn’t want to be there, nor do they want him there…why they didn’t cut him prior is beyond me.
Jalen Reagor (4-47-0/7) is going to pop one of these weeks…when a better matchup occurs, but the problem is he has a bunch of bad matchups ahead. You know who covered Reagor here? Defensive Player of the Year candidate James Bradberry. Why is that important? Because it explains Reagor’s ‘meh’ numbers AND it lets you know the opponents know who the top WR is for Wentz.
Reagor has a problem with Denzel Ward this week, but then Week 12 v. SEA (with Wentz) will project nicely. Week 14 with Marshon Lattimore is an issue, maybe. Week 15 v. Patrick Peterson, not great.
Dallas Goedert (4-33-0/6) looked really good here. Gave me renewed faith in him. Wentz needs to attack with Goedert more. I was very much encouraged by what I saw here, but still Goedert is a random evet week-to-week because of Wentz.
What happened to Travis Fulgham (1-8-0/5) as the best WR in football? Not sure. The Giants have a good defense is all I can say. He benefits from Reagor now taking the top coverage. Give him grace, he’s been consistently very good/great for several weeks prior.
-- Dare I say that Daniel Jones (21-28 for 244 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 9-64-1) is the better fantasy QB than Carson Wentz now?
I mean, Jones is a horrific passer…like the Manning’s, and their dumb Academy, should be utterly ashamed of themselves for endorsing this train wreck…but he can run the ball a little bit. 60+ yards rushing in 3 of his last 4 games. Can I say this – Jones might be better or ‘same’ for fantasy as/than Lamar Jackson, doing the same things…bad passing, heavy running.
Jones is running more on purpose, because that’s all he brings to the table. Wentz was doing that weeks ago but stopped like Week 7 on.
-- For fantasy 2020, right now…
Daniel Jones > Carson Wentz
And
Wayne Gallman (18-53-2, 1-7-0/2) > Miles Sanders (15-850, 2-10-0/5)
Welcome to 2020!!
Gallman has rushed for a TD in four straight games, 5 TDs in four games.
-- The Eagles ILBs were the best FF thing out there this week…
Alex Singleton (16 tackles, 1 TFL) has started four games in a row, and has averaged 9.3 tackles, 0.75 QB hits, 0.25 TFLs per game.
T.J. Edwards (12 tackles) is becoming a tackling machine for the amount of snaps he’s playing. He’s started the last two weeks and played 75%+ of the snaps each game, for the first time all year at those snap %’s…and he has 12.5 total tackles per game in those two games.
Snap Counts of Interest:
42 = Gallman
15 = Morris
62 = Goedert
21 = Rodgers
48 = Sanders
18 = B Scott
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Steelers 36, Bengals 10
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game was never really in doubt. The Steelers were getting into scoring position on most every drive it seemed. 22-7 Pitt at the half….36-7 with 10+ minutes left before they started just running the time out to get it over with.
We should probably just ignore the outcomes of this game because it was such a mismatch, but we’re going to dive into some players notes regardless.
The Steelers are now (9-0) with potential to go undefeated, but more likely they’ll lose Week 12 v. BAL and/or Week 14 at BUF…or stumble somewhere. They do not feel like a juggernaut at all. The Steelers are this great undefeated story playing out right now, but Week 12 is a big hurdle moment – lose to BAL, and they let the Ravens have some hope for the AFC North title. Defeat the Ravens, and they likely banish the Ravens to flash in the pan status (2019 season) and send them back to Baltimore wondering about a complete overhaul of the team. Also, defeating Baltimore Week 12 means the AFC South belongs to the Steelers for 2020…then they can move on to ‘going undefeated’ or not.
The Bengals fall to (2-6-1), and are in another ‘wait ‘til next year’ season. The Bengals might bag another game or two and finish with 3-4 wins…maybe 5 if things break right. Something to build on with Burrow in 2021+.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Note, first and foremost, all three Steelers WRs ‘ate’ this week – all three of them with 20+ PPR points in the game. No odd man out this week, which was comforting.
I just want to point out three things:
1) This was against Cincy, so it can be a bit misleading…but we’ll take it. Getting drunk on cheap whiskey is fine.
2) Dionte Johnson (6-116-1/11) was open, and Ben threw to, but didn’t connect on a 40+ and a 50+ yard play that one or both could’ve been a TD. Diontae just missed out on another 10+ points.
3) Chase Claypool (4-56-2/10), I counted, had near-miss/was open, four catches for 157+ yards, and 2 more TDs. I would have appreciated an 8-205-4/11 game. Ben mostly ‘just’ missed or once CC was held on a potential 20+ yard TD strike.
I mention this mostly to say…when Ben wants a TD, he’s looking to Claypool first and foremost. Claypool has 9 TDs already this season…he has been knocking on the door of having 15+ of them this year. The upside here is ‘wow’.
Taking into consideration his rushing TDs…Claypool is tied with Davante and Thielen for 2nd most TDs by a WR this season (9). Tyreek Hill leads the way with 10.
In total TDs, the league lead now:
13 = Cook
11 = Kamara
10 = Tyreek
09 = Claypool, Davante, Thielen, Gurley
-- Because of the matchup and the weapons, Ben Roethlisberger (27-46 for 333 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) had his best game of the 2020 season (despite missing practice all week with COVID quarantine AND sustaining a knee injury last week). I’m hoping this is a sign to come the rest of the season, prior Ben was throwing for good TDs but lower yards.
If the run game continues to fail, we might see more crazy Ben passing games ahead.
-- James Conner (13-36-0, 2-12-0/2) is failing, for sure…miserably.
37 carries for 105 yards (2.8 yards per carry) his last three games combined, not hitting over 50+ yards rushing in any of those three games.
I’m wondering if Bennie Snell (3-12-0) might get some more work ahead. However, in this blowout, we only saw Snell at the very end taking garbage/game ending carries.
I also wonder if this is where Jordan Howard is going to wind up.
The Steelers cannot go undefeated and ultimately get past KC, if they cannot run the ball effectively…and they have the worst 1-2 punch of RBs in the league outside of NYJ and Miami with Conner-Snell.
-- Gio Bernard (8-30-0, 4-17-0/7) and Samaje Perine (7-48-0, 1-7-0/1) both rushed for more yards than Conner, on less carries AND facing the Steelers run defense.
Joe Mixon may be conveniently (got his big contract right before the season) taking the rest of the season off with a foot issue…making Gio a lead back for the ROS in a 65/35 split with my man Samaje Perine. Gio looks solid as always…Perine looks like he belongs in the NFL, he’s always deserved better.
Perine would be the best RB on the Steelers roster today.
Perine is also better than the Jets’ Perine, but no one cares but me…
We did get to see Trayveon Williams (5-22-0) in garbage time. Looked fine. Not enough tape to work with to get excited one way or the other.
-- I can take a lot of credit for my Chase Claypool scouting, but in turn I take a big ‘L’ on my Tee Higgins (7-115-1/9) pre-Draft assessment. I never saw THIS Higgins in my studies…not on tape, not on computer/paper. I missed this by a mile. I thought he was a joke, but he’s no joke. He’s nowhere as good as Claypool, but Tee looks terrific with Joe Burrow.
Auden Tate (2-24-0/4) looks like a junior version of Tee Higgins…and Tate is about to become/is the #3 WR for Cincy now. Why?
A.J. Green (0-0-0/5) needs to be put out to pasture. He’s been toast since I said he was after Week 2. Nice career. Thank you for your service…buh-bye.
Green has caught 31 passes off 68 targets…a 35.1% catch rate with a highly accurate passer this season. AJG can’t get open and is dropping passes on top of that. It’s over.
-- Journeyman CB Tony Brown (9 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 PD) somehow is the starting CB for the Bengals now? Helluva IDP tally for his debut as a starter. I don’t see anything special here, but I’m opening to looking at more of his work. I’m sure he’ll get picked on a lot ahead…that’s good for IDP numbers.
Snap Counts of Interest:
63 = Diontae
61 = JuJu
44 = Claypool
28 = JWash
64 = Conner
04 = Snell
01 = Samuels
44 = Gio
16 = Perine
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 7 Game Analysis: Dolphins 29, Chargers 21
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was just a simple game of the Chargers shooting themselves in the foot right off the bat, and the Miami defense just sat on the lead and walked away with the victory.
Miami halted LAC on the opening drive, then the LAC punt attempt was botched/blocked and set up Miami at the 1-yard line for their first offensive play. It was 7-0 Miami in a blink. Next series, Miami driving, settling for a short field goal after the Chargers defense held on 3rd & short…but on the easy FG chip shot, LAC lined up offsides. Back onto the field for the Miami offense, for another easy TD. It was 14-0 after the 1st-quarter and Miami had barely had to put up any offense to do it.
After the 14-0 start, the Chargers won the next three quarters 21-15…but it wasn’t enough to win the game. Miami’s defense was strong, and the Chargers invent new ways to lose every week. The Chargers have to finish (6-1) for me to lose my 7.5 win ‘under’ win total bet on them – Anthony Lynn’s parting gift to me. I should’ve lost this bet big time, instead I’ll cash in as Lynn cashes out.
The Chargers are (2-7), but they should be (7-2) given how well Justin Herbert has played. We project LAC (5-11) to the finish, but (7-9) is possible…but so is (4-12).
Miami is now (6-3) and making their case stronger and stronger for the playoffs and have pulled to within a game of first place. Three very winnable games ahead (DEN, NYJ, CIN) could get them to (9-3) and then a tough schedule end should throw them back to 9-10 wins in the end and a wild card, not an AFC East title…but it’s now possible, in our projections, Miami could win the AFC East. If Miami loses one of their next 3 games, they won’t win the AFC East for sure.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- In the battle of the rookie QBs, there was a clear winner…
For the mainstream, it’s already over…the race has been called for Tua Tagovailoa (15-25 for 169 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 6-0-0). He’s better than Justin Herbert (20-32 for 187 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 4-10-1).
Sure, they will tell you that Herbert is having a great year and is the likely Rookie of the Year, but that’s just a speed bump on the way to talking about how great Tua has been already and will be to come. Why? He was THEIR guy before 2019, and they ain’t changing now.
And just like with political news, the story is shaped through the ‘_____-colored glasses’ of the particular media person reporting…in this case we have Tua-colored glasses across TV analyst-land. When Tua throws a basic pass for a completion, the analysts are near orgasmic…they’ve never seen anything like the 5-yard pass Tua throws off a rollout.
In this game, Tua had 2-3 picks that didn’t happen (dropped, etc.). Sometimes it just works that way…and thus hides the problem and believe me there is a Tua problem happening – or just he is too overhyped. But on one particular near-pick, Tua threw into double coverage with a defender in front of his receiver breaking on the pass. The defender put his hands/arms out to get the pick, but the ball went right through his hands clean – a total whiff…and then the pass made it to the receiver who made the catch. I thought, what a stupid pass? The TV analyst belched, “What an amazing throw by Tua!!”
They see what they want to see.
I see a QB still with huge limitations to his play. All kinds of trouble in the pocket. Not enough arm when the pocket is slightly muddy. He’s good rolling out and throwing on the run on short passes…and, to me, that is the telltale sign of a QB who is not ready for high level NFL play. You watch Herbert and Burrow put on masterclasses with pressure all around them in the pocket…and they zip the ball to receivers all over the field. Tua needs a diversion like a rollout or counter rollout to get him space/comfort to throw. Otherwise, he doesn’t even look at anything besides quick throwing to the redetermined receiver whether they are covered or not.
If I had Tua, and I don’t anywhere, I’d sell him fast…on this unwarranted hysteria.
If I had anything related to Tua, I’d sell it fast…
DeVante Parker (2-31-0/7) is averaging 3.0 rec. (5.3 targets) for 32.7 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game in Tua’s three starts.
-- I’d Include not trusting Salvon Ahmed (21-85-1) or just selling him off hot too.
Ahmed got a cheap TD off a blocked punt that started Miami’s game at 1st & goal from the 1-yard line. Other than that, he ran for about 4.0 yards per carry and every time Tua gets near the red zone, a field goal is the likely outcome.
When Myles Gaskin returns…he’ll be the starter and Ahmed will go bye-bye.
I’d much rather have Kalen Ballage (18-68-0, 5-34-0/6), the new workhorse starter for the Chargers in a much better, higher scoring offense ahead.
It’s 2020…so debating Ahmed, Ballage, and Gaskin is a real thing. If you got Ballage ahead of his revival now, you may have settled your backfield issues and can go on to compete for a title. Ballage is an RB1 projection/hopeful rest of the season…as long as Austin Ekeler doesn’t reappear.
DeAndre Washington barely played. No sign of life here, so far.
-- Jordan Howard was released by Miami this week.
My guess is he will sign with a contender to try and win a Super Bowl. My guesses at his landing spot would be Buffalo, NY Giants, Pittsburgh…the Steelers would not surprise as me as shock landing spot, of which he’ll just be a backup unless Conner goes down and out.
-- Buy the LAC WRs on the dips…
This down week may have been a response/plan to work away from Miami’s excellent pass defense, CB-duo.
Keenan Allen (3-39-1/7) is magic with Justin Herbert…a true WR1. If you get a deal on him take it.
Mike Williams (2-38-0/5) is their erratic #2 WR, but you want the #2 WR on high functioning pass games when you can get them cheap. Williams is a fringe WR3 for people…easy to get.
-- In Tua’s three starts, so far…
3.0 rec. (5.3 targets) for 32.7 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game = DeVante Parker
3.0 rec. (4.0 targets) for 31.0 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game = Jakeem Grant (+ a PR TD)
Jakeem Grant might be a better FF WR with Tua than Parker is…lesser covered, simple short throw (bubble screen, etc.).
-- LAC SAF Nasir Adderley (8 tackles) is averaging 6.7 total tackles per game the past three games. He’s been a LAC starter since Week 2 and been solid most weeks, but his tackle counts are slowly rising as the season wears on.
-- In Week 4, Miami got back Byron Jones from injury and thus had their great CB-duo (Howard-Jones) in place and they started firing on all cylinders from there.
Since Week 4, Miami-DST is the #1 DST scorer PPG in fantasy…ahead of Pittsburgh and everyone else.
AND NOW the good games are coming…at DEN, at NYJ the next two weeks. You could run this DST the rest of the season except for Week 14 v. KC.
Snap Counts of Interest:
53 = Parker
44 = JK Grant
11 = Hollins
44 = Ahmed
23 = M Perry
10 = Laird
04 = DA Washington
39 = Smythe
28 = Gesicki
22 = Shaheen
46 = Ballage
17 = J Kelley
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Dolphins 29, Chargers 21
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This was just a simple game of the Chargers shooting themselves in the foot right off the bat, and the Miami defense just sat on the lead and walked away with the victory.
Miami halted LAC on the opening drive, then the LAC punt attempt was botched/blocked and set up Miami at the 1-yard line for their first offensive play. It was 7-0 Miami in a blink. Next series, Miami driving, settling for a short field goal after the Chargers defense held on 3rd & short…but on the easy FG chip shot, LAC lined up offsides. Back onto the field for the Miami offense, for another easy TD. It was 14-0 after the 1st-quarter and Miami had barely had to put up any offense to do it.
After the 14-0 start, the Chargers won the next three quarters 21-15…but it wasn’t enough to win the game. Miami’s defense was strong, and the Chargers invent new ways to lose every week. The Chargers have to finish (6-1) for me to lose my 7.5 win ‘under’ win total bet on them – Anthony Lynn’s parting gift to me. I should’ve lost this bet big time, instead I’ll cash in as Lynn cashes out.
The Chargers are (2-7), but they should be (7-2) given how well Justin Herbert has played. We project LAC (5-11) to the finish, but (7-9) is possible…but so is (4-12).
Miami is now (6-3) and making their case stronger and stronger for the playoffs and have pulled to within a game of first place. Three very winnable games ahead (DEN, NYJ, CIN) could get them to (9-3) and then a tough schedule end should throw them back to 9-10 wins in the end and a wild card, not an AFC East title…but it’s now possible, in our projections, Miami could win the AFC East. If Miami loses one of their next 3 games, they won’t win the AFC East for sure.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- In the battle of the rookie QBs, there was a clear winner…
For the mainstream, it’s already over…the race has been called for Tua Tagovailoa (15-25 for 169 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 6-0-0). He’s better than Justin Herbert (20-32 for 187 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 4-10-1).
Sure, they will tell you that Herbert is having a great year and is the likely Rookie of the Year, but that’s just a speed bump on the way to talking about how great Tua has been already and will be to come. Why? He was THEIR guy before 2019, and they ain’t changing now.
And just like with political news, the story is shaped through the ‘_____-colored glasses’ of the particular media person reporting…in this case we have Tua-colored glasses across TV analyst-land. When Tua throws a basic pass for a completion, the analysts are near orgasmic…they’ve never seen anything like the 5-yard pass Tua throws off a rollout.
In this game, Tua had 2-3 picks that didn’t happen (dropped, etc.). Sometimes it just works that way…and thus hides the problem and believe me there is a Tua problem happening – or just he is too overhyped. But on one particular near-pick, Tua threw into double coverage with a defender in front of his receiver breaking on the pass. The defender put his hands/arms out to get the pick, but the ball went right through his hands clean – a total whiff…and then the pass made it to the receiver who made the catch. I thought, what a stupid pass? The TV analyst belched, “What an amazing throw by Tua!!”
They see what they want to see.
I see a QB still with huge limitations to his play. All kinds of trouble in the pocket. Not enough arm when the pocket is slightly muddy. He’s good rolling out and throwing on the run on short passes…and, to me, that is the telltale sign of a QB who is not ready for high level NFL play. You watch Herbert and Burrow put on masterclasses with pressure all around them in the pocket…and they zip the ball to receivers all over the field. Tua needs a diversion like a rollout or counter rollout to get him space/comfort to throw. Otherwise, he doesn’t even look at anything besides quick throwing to the redetermined receiver whether they are covered or not.
If I had Tua, and I don’t anywhere, I’d sell him fast…on this unwarranted hysteria.
If I had anything related to Tua, I’d sell it fast…
DeVante Parker (2-31-0/7) is averaging 3.0 rec. (5.3 targets) for 32.7 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game in Tua’s three starts.
-- I’d Include not trusting Salvon Ahmed (21-85-1) or just selling him off hot too.
Ahmed got a cheap TD off a blocked punt that started Miami’s game at 1st & goal from the 1-yard line. Other than that, he ran for about 4.0 yards per carry and every time Tua gets near the red zone, a field goal is the likely outcome.
When Myles Gaskin returns…he’ll be the starter and Ahmed will go bye-bye.
I’d much rather have Kalen Ballage (18-68-0, 5-34-0/6), the new workhorse starter for the Chargers in a much better, higher scoring offense ahead.
It’s 2020…so debating Ahmed, Ballage, and Gaskin is a real thing. If you got Ballage ahead of his revival now, you may have settled your backfield issues and can go on to compete for a title. Ballage is an RB1 projection/hopeful rest of the season…as long as Austin Ekeler doesn’t reappear.
DeAndre Washington barely played. No sign of life here, so far.
-- Jordan Howard was released by Miami this week.
My guess is he will sign with a contender to try and win a Super Bowl. My guesses at his landing spot would be Buffalo, NY Giants, Pittsburgh…the Steelers would not surprise as me as shock landing spot, of which he’ll just be a backup unless Conner goes down and out.
-- Buy the LAC WRs on the dips…
This down week may have been a response/plan to work away from Miami’s excellent pass defense, CB-duo.
Keenan Allen (3-39-1/7) is magic with Justin Herbert…a true WR1. If you get a deal on him take it.
Mike Williams (2-38-0/5) is their erratic #2 WR, but you want the #2 WR on high functioning pass games when you can get them cheap. Williams is a fringe WR3 for people…easy to get.
-- In Tua’s three starts, so far…
3.0 rec. (5.3 targets) for 32.7 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game = DeVante Parker
3.0 rec. (4.0 targets) for 31.0 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game = Jakeem Grant (+ a PR TD)
Jakeem Grant might be a better FF WR with Tua than Parker is…lesser covered, simple short throw (bubble screen, etc.).
-- LAC SAF Nasir Adderley (8 tackles) is averaging 6.7 total tackles per game the past three games. He’s been a LAC starter since Week 2 and been solid most weeks, but his tackle counts are slowly rising as the season wears on.
-- In Week 4, Miami got back Byron Jones from injury and thus had their great CB-duo (Howard-Jones) in place and they started firing on all cylinders from there.
Since Week 4, Miami-DST is the #1 DST scorer PPG in fantasy…ahead of Pittsburgh and everyone else.
AND NOW the good games are coming…at DEN, at NYJ the next two weeks. You could run this DST the rest of the season except for Week 14 v. KC.
Snap Counts of Interest:
53 = Parker
44 = JK Grant
11 = Hollins
44 = Ahmed
23 = M Perry
10 = Laird
04 = DA Washington
39 = Smythe
28 = Gesicki
22 = Shaheen
46 = Ballage
17 = J Kelley
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Rams 23, Seahawks 16
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Rams got up 10-7 in this game, in the last 1st-quarter…and they just led the rest of the way and won the game. Seattle had chances, but the Rams defense held in key spots every time. Seattle converted 50% of its third downs, which is usually a good number foretelling of a nice offensive showing…but Russell Wilson didn’t throw a TD pass, did throw two picks…really threw a third pick which was a pick-six, but reversed by penalty – something just seemed off, the Rams played solid D and just out-efficiency’d the Seahawks. Seattle scored a season low 16 points and just 1 TD here.
The football world sees this as some great win by the Rams, and some weird let down by Seattle – but the Seahawks aren’t a ‘great’ team. I’m not sure beating Seattle is the big victory we think/feel it is right now. Seattle losing to good teams…it shouldn’t be a shock. They’ve lost three of their last 4 games, but we act like Seattle is this Super Bowl juggernaut. They are not. They’re like the Mike McCarthy Green Bay Packers of the past decade – poorly coached, saved by the elite QB so you don’t notice how bad they are, wins enough games because of the QB to keep respect/keep jobs…but we look back in 10 years and wonder why they never went to the Super Bowl again over a decade with one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game…Pete Carroll is quietly following that McCarthy-GB blueprint?
Seattle is now (6-3) and is playing a huge statement game on TNF this week hosting Arizona. If Seattle can win that game, and I think they will, they have a very easy schedule ahead and can get to 11-12 wins and keep everyone conned. If they lose to Arizona, then Seattle has way more issues than we’ve all realized and they are headed to a 9-10 win season and a wild card more likely. Boy, is their schedule ahead a gift to save them, though.
The Rams are now (6-3) as well. They have a bit harder of a road to finish out. Huge game at Tampa Bay this week, a likely loss and then they will project out to 9-10 wins and a battle with Seattle and Arizona for the division, where Seattle and Arizona have an upper hand due to schedule…and the Rams just lost their top O-Lineman for the rest of the season, a huge blow.
I focused a lot on Seattle in the opening, but that is a disservice to the Rams…they are a very good ‘good’ team. Not Super Bowl faves, but solid all the way around – a secretly forming heavy run game + stout defense team we think is a highflyer offense. They are going the Gruden way (which McVay is a disciple of)…smartly schemed, RB-led (a committee approach here), and ball/clock possession wins.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I’m not going to try and say Russell Wilson (22-37 for 248 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) is bad or anything or ‘sell now’, but I will note his numbers/output has been eroding for a few weeks now. Under 265 yards passing in three of his last 5 games. 9 TDs/7 INTs his past 4 games.
On RW’s next pick thrown this season, it will tie him for his career high INTs thrown in a season (11)…and we got 7 games left to go! Something is getting a touch weird here.
On the positive side, he’s running more to make up for his numbers…46.0 yards rushing per game the past five games.
The pattern is – when he’s facing good teams, he’s losing and throwing more picks…and it seems to be getting worse as we go. He’s also starting to get sacked a lot, and that has a lot to do with it…sacked 11 times the past two games.
-- Wilson’s struggles are taking D.K. Metcalf’s (2-28-0/4) numbers down with him. Two 2-catch games in his last 4 for Metcalf. Two games under 30 yards receiving for Metcalf…how is that even possible?
Four targets in this game, as Jalen Ramsey shut him down…but really there were a few occasions DKM was open and Wilson just missed him. A 50+ yard TD with DKM running a yard+ ahead of Ramsey down the sidelines and the ball was offline and incomplete.
I’m buying Metcalf if anyone is selling.
More perplexing to me is Tyler Lockett (5-66-0/9). His season has gone from great to little blip/bump in the road, to now he’s a WR3-4 week-to-week.
His PPR scoring in games since Week 4…
5.9
8.4
53.9
7.3
8.0
11.7.
One mammoth game…and a bunch of WR3-4 games otherwise.
It’s hard to bench Lockett, because that’s when he’ll pop for a monster game…but he’s been killing you more than helping four of the last 5 games…as Wilson is fading, so is Lockett.
-- This is the game Cam Akers (10-38-0) became the starter for the Rams. He won’t officially start the games yet, but this is where Sean McVay revealed his cards/heart…and he showed us his heart on his sleeve this game.
But note that ‘the main guy’ at RB for the Rams is mostly meaningless. It’s a fantasy-death RBBC trio.
Darrell Henderson (7-28-1, 1-5-0/1) started, and looked great for 1.5 quarters…but then, as it seems every game lately, he’s done after putting in a good 1+ quarter of work and then punches out on the timeclock and is watching the other guys pick up where he left off.
Only, this game was a new twist of game flow with the LAR RBs: Akers didn’t just come in for some sprinkled in carries as the game wore on. No, he was in on the 3rd-play of the game, and he pretty much carried the 2nd-4th quarters. Malcolm Brown (6-33-2, 2-18-0/2) sprinkled in near the goal line and 3rd-downs.
Essentially, Henderson and Akers are splitting 1st and 2nd downs and Brown is the 3rd-down back. Akers is more ‘the guy’, but they all share the backfield like a hippie commune. It’s fantasy death.
-- Alex Collins (11-43-1, 1-4-0/2) was out of football for a year+, no one in the NFL wanted him, and he got signed in desperation a few weeks ago…and after two solid DeeJay Dallas (2-8-0, 2-23-0/3) weeks, Dallas was ditched and Collins became the starter out of nowhere…and got treated better than Dallas…Homer…Henderson…Brown…or Akers.
That’s why the Rams' situation is fantasy death.
Collins looked really solid/fine in his reemergence.
As soon as Carlos Hyde or Chris Carson can play, Collins will be ditched. More likely Hyde Week 11 is ‘the guy’.
As soon as Chris Carson can play, then Hyde will be a backup for heavy Carson.
I have no idea what Rashaad Penny is doing in the meantime. He is back running and cutting, nearing a return to REALLY make this confusing…if Carson goes back down again.
-- Best looking WR on the Rams this game, and it’s a growing trend…Josh Reynolds (8-94-0/10). He’s outscoring Tyler Lockett most weeks now the past 4-5 weeks.
I’m not joking – Reynolds looks REALLY good, smooth. He benefits from less attention in coverage but note that he is going to take targets away from Woods-Kupp ahead, in some small-medium way. He’s playing too well not to see looks. He’s still just a WR3-4 flyer in the LAR pecking order.
5.3 catches, 63.3 yards, 0.33 TDs per game the past three games.
-- Two IDPs to point out…
SEA SAF D.J. Reed (10 tackles, 1 TFL) has started the last two games, played three total games this season, and is averaging 7.3 tackles, 0.67 PDs, 0.33 TFLs in those three games. He has relegated Ryan Neal out of the picture. Neal was hot with IDP numbers prior to Reed popping.
LAR CB Darious Williams (1 tackle, 2 INTs, 3 PDs) was the MVP of this game. Two interceptions, a third he took back for a pick-six but it got called back. He now has 4 INTs on the season and is averaging 1.1 PDs per game. His coverage numbers on completion percentage allowed (52.6%) and QB rating allowed at him (42.3) are getting to Pro Bowl level.
If you wondered why Russell Wilson looked so bad here…look no further than the Ramsey-Williams CB-duo, emerging as one of the best in the business.
The Rams are #3 in pass defense (yds per game allowed). They are #1 in least amount of pass TDs allowed (9) this season.
The Rams-DST is getting hot, and if anyone dropped them because of ‘vs. SEA’ last week or drops this week for fear of Tom Brady…they are too good to ignore Weeks 12-15.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = Woods
56 = JReyn
37 = Kupp
13 = Van J
29 = M Brown
23 = DHendo
18 = Akers
32 = A Collins
22 = Dallas
07 = Homer
