R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Packers 25, Bengals 22

This will be known (for a few weeks, until we forget completely) as the game with all the missed field goal attempts to win it. And it was a crazy ending…because football is the best TV drama in all the world. That and 90-Day Fiancé. I digress…

What all ‘crazy missed FG attempts’ storyline will hide is – we have entered a period of time where the Cincinnati Bengals are as good as the Green Bay Packers. Cincy played right with Green Bay…and shoulda/coulda won. This wasn’t just a blip, a fluke…this was the Bengals being as good as the Packers. Welcome to 2021. It’s not that the Packers are bad…it’s that Cincy is that good…not great…good.

The Bengals are (3-2)…they should be (4-1)/(5-0). Two close losses so far this season. They also are lucky to not be (2-3)/(1-4) as well. But (3-2) fits them right now…this is a 10-win team that has a shot to make a wild card this year. We’re projecting 8-10 range for wins now looking out over their schedule. Four games with BAL and CLE ahead, with LAC and KC on the schedule ahead as well…not easy.

The Packers are also good, but beatable…for now. When/if they get LT David Bakhtiari and Jaire Alexander (and he’s an if) back then they are better than the Bengals. If the Packers make it through the first 6 games at (5-1) and then get Bakhtiari back Week 7…the Pack are one of the true powers in the NFC, especially if Jaire can get back…which means like the 5-8th best team in the AFC. A tough schedule ahead, The Computer is projecting 10-11 wins for Green Bay right now.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- This is going to be an odd way to start this player analysis…

Davante Adams (11-206-1/16) had a MONSTER game, per usual. The Bengals top CB is Chidobe Awuzie (6 tackles, 1 TFL, 2 PDs). Awuzie was on Adams quite a bit. So, process this statement: I think Awuzie played Adams as well as anyone I’ve seen in a while. Awuzie is a Pro Bowler, or should be, and possible Defensive Player of the Year candidate (but he won’t even be on the ballot, most voters don’t know he’s a real NFL player…they think he’s a made name).

He’ll get as many DPOY votes as the amount of laughs I get out of the incessant Sunday NFL game’s Kate McKinnon Verizon commercials = which is zero (which is a shame because she’s wonderful on SNL).

The reason the Bengals are ‘good’ now, the resurgence of Cincy is not just Joe Burrow…it’s the defensive makeover. Awuzie was a big get in free agency. The Bengals have allowed the 5th lowest TD passes against this season (6 TDs). They are #7 in sacks so far this season. Top 10 against the run (yds allowed). #7 best in PPG allowed. This is a very good defense and Awuzie is a big reason why.

So, how is Awuzie so great and allowed 206 yards to Davante? Two reasons…

1) There was a stretch where Awuzie left the field for a drive…and Rodgers went right to work and worked Adams the whole drive, including for their lone TD.

2) Sometimes Awuzie was not on Adams, and Rodgers went right at that. But Rodgers was mostly avoiding Adams when Awuzie was straight up on him. But sometimes Awuzie would start on Adams, but hand him off to the safety going deep and then Rodgers would work that too.

Straight up, Awuzie allowed 6 catches for 54 yards and no TDs officially…with a pick. And the big yards on a late game semi-miracle throw and Adams catch was tightly covered by Awuzie.

Fear Awuzie for your WR matchups…until he hands them off to burn their safeties. Respect Awuzie as one of the top corners in the game.

Imagine if Dallas kept Awuzie…?

 -- Onto WRs that I don’t respect…

Ja’Marr Chase (6-159-1/10) caught another long TD pass…so the gold jacket is being fitted for him among the football social media.

On Chase’s TD play, Burrow escaped a sack, scrambled around and coverage broke down. He heaved it to Chase deep, the DB came over and covered it nicely as he dove/reached out with a big fly swat to knockdown the incoming floater…but he whiffed on it, so it landed in Chase’s hands as a surprise and Chase then turned around and walked the extra 20+ yards into the end zone.

Chase is not doing anything special that I see, still…but I have to respect that luck keeps going his way. It will dry up but it’s working now. Side note: Rookie CB Eric Stokes (4 tackles, 1 PD) ate Chase for lunch in this game when he was on him. History will show Chase was a stupid draft pick at #5…not taking Sewell, but also not taking Stokes (for a lot of teams) in the top 10.

When I watch this Bengals passing game, I am impressed way more with Tee Higgins (5-32-0/7). And because Higgins missed two games with minor injury and then returned Week 5 and didn’t score a TD…his FF-stock price is dropping. I’m all-in on him at a discount. He trades like a WR2…I think he’s a WR1 all day long. Buy him for WR2-2.25 valuations …or try.

 -- Joe Burrow (26-38 for 281 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) has been pretty efficient and winning this season, but it still doesn’t look like he’s back to his old self yet. If he ever gets back in the groove fully…Cincy is a playoff team.

 -- I’m not going to comment deeply on the RBs in this game…they did what anyone would expect…

A.J. Dillon (8-30-0, 4-49-1/4) is the best backup RB in football and is now catching passes like a beast.

Samaje Perine (11-59-0, 4-24-1/5) fills in just fine as needed if Mixon is ever down.

 -- Many of you know I like Bengals rookie PK Evan McPherson (2/2 XP, 0/2 FGs) but I got a few emails post-game/week on whether it’s time to give up on McPherson .

He missed two game-winning FG attempts, yes…but note that one was from 57 yards and it was good from 70 but fully smacked the post. No shame there. His next one, he thought he made…kicked it so high it went near the top of the post so it was a judgment call, and McPherson and his holder and some teammates were celebrating the make…but the refs disagreed.

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Chase

55 = Boyd

47 = Tee

56 = Uzomah

21 = Sample

41 = Perine

19 = Mixon

44 = A Jones

21 = AJ Dillon

38 = Tonyan

29 = M Lewis

Ross Jacobs

FFM

15 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Ravens 31, Colts 26

Where to start with this one? There's so much to sort out.

I've seen plenty of storylines written about this game, and I don't believe any of them truly capture what happened here, so I'm going to do my best to paint this picture as accurately as I can.

The Colts jumped out to an early 7-0 lead after Jonathan Taylor broke a simple screen pass for a 73 yard TD. On their next drive, Indy was moving the ball well and looked to take an even larger lead, but the drive was halted by a sack and fumble on Wentz.

The two teams would drive crappy drives for the next several minutes until Baltimore was finally able to get on the board with a FG during a 2-minute drive where Indy was playing a soft zone coverage. But Baltimore left too much time for the Colts and they managed to get a FG of their own to make it 10-3 Colts at the half.

Indianapolis got the ball after halftime and promptly scored to take a 16-3 lead after Michael Pittman made an amazing catch on a poorly thrown ball in coverage, broke a tackle, and got into the endzone. The Colts missed the extra point.

On the next possession, Baltimore finally put together a good drive, but were stopped at the 1 yard line when Lamar fumbled the ball. The Colts picked it up and nearly scored but a penalty was thrown for an illegal forward lateral.

The Colts again took the ball right down the field with more help from Pittman and Taylor and scored again to make it 22-3. They went for 2 and didn't get it. Things were looking very bad for the Ravens.

Baltimore got the ball back and scored on their next drive after a backup corner was beaten on a double move by Marquise Brown. The Ravens also went for 2 and didn't get it. 22-9 Colts at the start of the 4th quarter.

Indy once again went right down the field but stalled and kicked a FG for a safe 25-9 lead. This is where the trouble began.

With 12 minutes left in the game and only a 16 point lead, the Colts coaching staff apparently felt comfortable enough to start running a prevent defense to keep the Ravens in front of them. They had been moving the ball well so far and likely felt like even if the Ravens scored that they could just run the clock down afterwards.

They did manage to keep the ball in front of them, but Lamar just took checkdown after easy checkdown and marched right down the field in short order to make it 25-17 after a Mark Andrews TD and 2 point conversion.

Indy got the ball back and proceeded to run the clock down as planned. Things were looking good until they stalled and had to attempt another FG. Their kicker had been dealing with a hip injury all night and held his own, but the Ravens blocked the kick to give themselves a chance with about 6 minutes left.

Right down the field went the Ravens as Lamar was able to just pick apart the soft defense of the Colts. He nearly fumbled the ball again at the 1 yard line but was luckily ruled down. Andrews would score yet again and also convert a second 2-pt conversion to tie the game.

40 seconds to go and the Colts had one last chance to win the game. A stupid penalty by a Baltimore defender would give them a 1st down and a couple plays later they lined up for a 47 yard FG attempt to win the game. But the injured kicker missed again and the game was headed to OT.

Baltimore won the coin toss to receive and went right down the field against another soft defense, and a TD pass to Marquise Brown sealed the win.

It was a wild game and trying to sort out what happened is complex.

Most people naively look at the box score and the huge comeback and attribute all of it to Lamar Jackson's brilliance. There is a large faction of NFL analysts that believe he can do no wrong and that he's perpetually underrated as a QB and player in general.

That isn't really a correct view of these events in my opinion. Baltimore really struggled to move the ball against a decent but not great Colts defense all night...until Indy had a huge lead and started playing soft to try and run out the clock. It's a theme we've seen more and more in recent years. Sometimes getting too large of a lead early is a curse because it almost forces you into a certain style of play that is too passive and helps the opposing team come back.

All these passing yards that Lamar piled up...he doesn't remotely do that under normal circumstances. He's an ok NFL passer, not bad, definitely not great...ok. If his legs weren't so dangerous he would struggle even more, but since teams are worried about him taking off he is afforded more time to throw and wide open lanes. I'm not knocking him for that. It's part of his game and the massive benefit of having a mobile QB. But that doesn't automatically mean he's a great passer and can hang with the Herbert's and Mahomes's of the world. Of course, brain dead football society that we have these days, I'm sure the fans and voters will give him an MVP because they equate fantasy stats with real life success. Sad but true.

Now having said all that I should also point out that while Baltimore was very fortunate to win this game after they got down (two scores, two 2-pt conversions, multiple missed Indy FG's, and getting the ball first in OT), Indy was very fortunate to have gotten a huge lead. They were playing even with the Ravens but not that much better. Their first two scores were a long screen pass that Taylor broke and a wild catch and score by Pittman off of a terribly thrown ball. They got a Lamar fumble at their 1 yard line that turned into another score for a 14 point swing. This wasn't domination by the Colts so much as it was them getting fortunate.

Then the luck swung the other way. That's life and football for you.

So to sum it all up, I would say that the Ravens are a good but not great team. They have had to come back on two not great teams in the Raiders and Colts, came back on a suddenly vulnerable Chiefs team, barely survived the pathetic Lions, and smacked the struggling Broncos. They are currently 9th in the NFL in scoring (with a lot of help) but they've played several really weak defenses so far to prop them up. They are tied for 14th in defensive ppg and again have been fortunate in the schedule so far. The schedule is about to get a lot harder, and I don't think the Ravens are going to handle it very well. They look like a 9-8 team to me or somewhere in that range.

The Colts are now 1-4 and falling farther behind the Titans in the AFC South race. They are 21st in points per game and 23rd on defense, but unlike the Ravens, they have been very unfortunate in their early schedule. They've had to play the Seahawks, Rams, Titans, and Ravens, all .500 or better teams, and they've had to do it while struggling with injuries, particularly to their offensive line.

They are not a bad team. I caution anyone against thinking playing against the Colts is a free win. It is not. They are essentially the same team as last year, only now they have had some bad luck go against them in various ways. The schedule is about to get significantly easier, and I expect the Colts to start to bounce back especially if they can get their offensive line healthy again. I'm not sure they can catch the Titans, but I am quite sure that they'll at least close the gap a little.

Fantasy Notes

--I hammered Lamar Jackson (37-43 for 442 yards, 4 TD/0 INT, 14-62-0) quite hard for how overrated this performance was in real life football, but as a fantasy QB he is usually gold. Just don't get used to passing numbers like this. It was a fluke event and one not likely to repeat.

Before this game, in his last 20 appearances Lamar had only thrown over 300 yards once...the prior week against Denver. He had exactly 1 TD pass in every game this year until he got 4 here. In these past two games he's attempted a combined 80 passes (40/g). In his first 3 games of the year he averaged 29. Last year he averaged 23.5 attempts per game and only threw more than 30 passes twice.

The higher number of pass attempts is likely to stay actually because Baltimore's running game absolutely sucks with all these decrepit RB's taking carries. So Lamar is having to throw more to try and keep them in games. Unfortunately I think his efficiency is about to take a nose dive as he plays better teams and they realize that they don't have to fear the running game anymore. Once defenses start forcing Lamar to pass into tight windows he's going to struggle.

I'm afraid all of the “Lamar is an elite passer” people are in for a rude awakening in a few weeks. Bet they don't have anything to say when he starts to struggle though. They only come out feeling like they can yap when he garbage times his way to the only 400 yard game of his career.

--Mark Andrews (11-147-2/13) was due for a big game, but this was ridiculous. Again, this is mostly the product of a very strange game flow. Andrews isn't the new Darren Waller. Well, maybe he is considering Waller only has one big game this year and a bunch of duds too...

--Marquise Brown (9-125-2/10) now has 5 TD's on the year, a TD in every game but one so far (where he dropped 2-3 more), and 11 TD's in his last 11 games. This is the guy you want from this offense. He's Lamar's BFF in the red zone, the #6 WR on the year in ppr, and a couple dropped TD's away from being a top 2-3 guy. Some of his numbers here were also pushed by the high number of pass attempts and going into OT (where he scored one of his TD's), but all that is beside the point. The guy is just scoring constantly now, and there's no sense nitpicking it. I doubt he finishes this quite this high, but he should be able to maintain his WR1 pace regardless.

--If I haven't already made it clear since week 1, you don't want any part of this running game. These guys are all atrocious. Ty'Son Williams is the only guy I have any interest in, but he's been marginalized and pushed to the side. You could even tell here that he's now running very tentatively, as if the coaches have hammered him to hold onto the ball at all costs. It's robbing him of his explosiveness. I have no respect for how Harbaugh and the Ravens staff has handled the offense this year. They are about to get their just desserts and they deserve every bit of what's coming.

--Carson Wentz (25-35 for 402 yards, 2 TD/0 INT) went over 400 yards here, but it was quite fluky. He didn't do much to help push those numbers. It was a couple of ridiculous catch and runs by Taylor and an utterly ridiculous catch by Pittman that helped push him this high. He's still playing reasonably smart, safe, game manager football though, and as I talked about a couple weeks ago, he's a decent #2 to have right now as a safety blanket.

--Jonathan Taylor (15-53-1, 3-116-1/4) was the Colts fantasy star of the day after breaking a screen pass for 73 yards. As always though I want to caution people that think this can keep up. It won't, not unless something changes. He's still not getting the touches he deserves, and he doesn't have much room to work when he does get the ball. Things broke right for him here, but I worry about him going forward a bit. If the offensive line gets healthy he could finish strong against a weak schedule however. You just have to wait and pray with him for now.

--RC and I have been pushing the rise of Michael Pittman (6-89-1/7) for weeks now. He looks fantastic, a true #1 receiver for Indy. If you haven't seen his TD catch from this game, do yourself a favor and go look it up. There aren't many receivers in the league that can go over top of coverage like this, snatch the ball away from the defender with the ball well behind him, break a tackle, and score. He is probably a WR1.5 rest of the schedule with some outside hope of climbing higher.

--Outside of those two guys I don't think you want another piece of this offense. There's not a ton of volume to be had and Wentz is spreading the ball around pretty well. Parris Campbell (4-56-0/6) was back and had a decent game, but I still don't see the old explosiveness from him. He's just ok now and with TY Hilton coming back he probably goes back to being WR4 on this offense.

IDP Notes

--Rookie Jayson Oweh (3 tackles, 1 sack), who apparently is going by Odefe now, now has 3 sacks on the year, and I can confidently say this was his first impressive one. He got a great jump off the snap and blew past the tackle for a sack and fumble that stopped an important Colts drive. I still haven't seen the athleticism shining through as much, but he's starting to put the pieces together a little and impact the game at moments.

Snap Counts of Interest

66 = Marquise Brown

64 = Devin Duvernay

50 = James Proche

20 = Sammy Watkins

36 = Latavius Murray

20 = Devonta Freeman

14 = Ty'Son Williams

50 = Jack Doyle

31 = Mo Alie-Cox

36 = Jonathan Taylor

26 = Nyheim Hines

10 = Marlon Mack

R.C. Fischer

FFM

14 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Eagles 21, Panthers 18

I’m not sure how the Eagles won this game. They were getting thoroughly outplayed for three quarters. They were down 15-3 at one point…and the offense looked stuck in mud. But then they woke up a bit…aided by Sam Darnold going back to being old Sam Darnold and throwing easy picks for DBs like he was tossing beads at Mardi Gras, and then an Eagles blocked punt setting them up in the red zone with 4+ minutes left down 18-13 was the full turn…Eagles go onto score and win the game because Darnold can’t get a 2+ minute drive to get into position for a tie or snatch the win – he throws a pick right away and ended any real hope of a comeback. Darnold sucks. Better than he was -- but still sucks. Davis Mills is playing better football.

The Eagles are not a bad team, but they are like the Ravens – on purpose they kinda suck because of their lineup of weapons (by coach’s choice) and several OL injuries, but then the elite mobile QB just improvises them back into games and gives them a chance. Huge game hosting TB on TNF this week…a game they can win.  If they do, they have a real shot at playoff hopes. We see them finishing 7-8 wins at this stage, but 9 wins is on the table as NYG and WSH fade away (and they play them 4 times from Weeks 12-17, with NYJ wedged in there).

Carolina has a very good team/roster; except they have a bottom five QB…so they will fall short. We are projecting Carolina for 7-9 wins but could be 10+ wins if they traded for a real QB right now…but they won’t.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- First things first, let me tell you how dumb Miles Sanders (11-45-0, 5-6-0/5) is…

Usually, I am howling about how overrated he is…but now add to it he’s a dope, and almost cost PHI this game…AND may have kicked open the door for Kenneth Gainwell (2-16-0, 1-8-0/3)…

So, the Eagles took the lead with 2:38 left…kicked off to CAR, and then quickly picked off Darnold, setting themselves up with the ball at the CAR 43 with 1:56 left. Just one first down and they can then run out the clock…the Panthers had all their timeouts left, so Philly was going three straight run plays (likely) to strip CAR of all their timeouts.

1st & 10 = Pitch sweep to Sanders, who goes off tackle…but it’s congested so he kicks it outside and keeps going to the sideline. Greg Olsen (on commentary) is saying GET DOWN but Sanders doesn’t even try he just jumps a defender and goes ignorant-of-the-time/situation out of bounds. Olsen almost loses it. The clock stops, Carolina preserves a timeout…still with three.

2nd & 4 = Handoff off tackle to Sanders, and he breaks through for a 1st-down but starts aiming towards the sidelines but is tackled before we see what he would have done if faced with going out of bounds again.  

Sanders got the first down, the prior play with Sanders going out of bounds is forgotten/forgiven. Carolina is forced to use their first timeout…so this is all under control for Philly now. Run two plays safe, make CAR use their last two timeouts and then run a 3rd play and get a field goal, likely leaving CAR with about :20 seconds to go the length of the field for a TD with no timeouts after the ensuing kickoff.

1st & 10 from the CAR 18 = Sanders pitch to the right, he tries to avoid a tackler and goes out of bounds again. Greg Olsen went apoplectic, eventually saying ‘they gotta take him out, right?’ And they did…Sanders was pulled off the field. The RB coach was talking to Sanders for the next minute+ on the sidelines. The other announcer says…the Sanders basically gave Carolina five timeouts to try and stay in the game. Gainwell closed out the game…being sure to run/stay/fall down in bounds.

If there wasn’t enough frustration with Sanders going into this game, he just added more heat to the fire.

I don’t know if Philly will make the move to Gainwell, but it would likely begin with Sanders ceremonially starting and then Gainwell playing more snaps than him after that… but if we see Gainwell starting on TNF, then the move has been made. Bad first start facing the Bucs, however.

I would like to daydream that Gainwell leaps Sanders on the depth chart, but Sanders played 50+ snaps here and Gainwell 16…and if not for the stupidity at the end the gap would have been wider. So, if Gainwell is coming on for this coaching staff…you coulda fooled me on that the first 58+ minutes of the game.

The bizarre Sanders end of this game is a reason for some hope Gainwell is going to move into more of a 50-50 split with Sanders with the potential of taking over…whatever that means, for FF the lead PHI RB hasn’t been great…but maybe KG changes that? I know there is a lot of smoke the past few weeks and months of anti-Sanders, pro-Gainwell coming from the staff (supposedly) and local media.

 -- Carolina’s RB situation isn’t changing…Christian McCaffrey (DNP) will be the guy all the time, when healthy. I believe he plays Week 6. And I will tell you why in the next few paragraphs…

Chuba Hubbard (24-101-0, 5-33-0/6) was just the runner in Week 4, but here in Week 5 he was the runner/pass catcher as well. What changed? I don’t know. Rodney Smith went for 5 catches last week…but this week/game, no Smith touches and then Smith was cut by the team Tuesday. You likely do that if CMC is going to return.

Hubbard has shaky hands, so Smith had the catches last week…but Royce Freeman (3-2-0, 1-6-0/2) was in on 3rd-down quickly here as ‘that guy’ but he is so slow now that they just kept feeding Chuba in all phases and it worked OK enough.

CMC is very likely back Week 6…and Chuba is his for-sure handcuff.

 -- All the odes written about Sam Darnold (24-37 for 177 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs) after 3 games…they’re all drying up. He was THEIR (the media) MVP candidate after three weeks, now we see articles about what a mistake it was to trade for Darnold. The media lives in a world one week at a time only…whatever just happened is everything for forever, with THEIR guys.

Darnold is getting to a tougher schedule, and teams now see what he’s doing with his new team (it’s a new playbook, etc.)…so, this whole situation is going downhill to more losses as he drags Moore-Anderson with him. CMC back will help some. Darnold is playing better than the past versions of himself, but all the other QBs are so much better or are improving so much faster that it leaves Darnold as arguably the worst 1-2-3 starting QB in the league any given week.

Jalen Hurts (22-37 for 198 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, 9-30-2) is 10x the QB Darnold is, but Hurts still gets the obligatory `Is Hurts the long term answer at QB for Philly’ national article every week. Dak used to get that too, years ago, as they discussed how Wentz was better in division for the future. That ‘take’ aged well…

 -- Watching the Hurts-DeVonta Smith (7-77-0/9) connection in this game…yaawwwnnn. I always expect to see some excitement, some sweet Justin Jefferson like work from DeVonta, but all I’m getting is vanilla Jakobi Meyers type work…he’s open occasionally, Hurts throws it to him (because…would you throw to Reagor if you had a choice?), DeVonta makes a solid catch and is quickly tackled.

I don’t see any ‘wow’ factor from DeVonta at all.

The ‘wow’ factor WR for Philly is Quez Watkins (3-48-0/3) but they use Quez as more deep ball decoy than purposed weapon.

 -- Speaking of dull…Zach Ertz (1-7-0/6). One catch on 6 targets. Ertz is aging fast. My only interest, and not even that interesting perhaps, is Ertz playing without Dallas Goedert (2-28-0/3) on TNF this week. If Goedert can go…then far less interested in an Ertz spot start.

 -- MVP of this game for Carolina…Jeremy Chinn (4 tackles). His IDP numbers are way down as he plays coverage more, not quasi-linebacker as much, but he was everywhere pressuring plays and sniffing out near-turnovers. He’s an excellent player who has been ‘meh’ for IDP results this year after blowing them up last year.

 -- When the Eagles-DST plays bottom half of the league teams, they are not bad. Held ATL to 6pts, SF to 17 and Carolina to 18pts. KC and DAL popped 40+ on them.

This week with Tampa Bay/Brady…probably closer to 30+ allowed.

Snap Counts of Interest:

46 = Chuba

14 = Freeman

11 = R Smith

45 = Ian Thomas

27 = Tremble

50 = Sanders

16 = Gainwell

45 = Goedert

40 = Ertz

R.C. Fischer

FFM

14 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Chargers 47, Browns 42

As a football scout, as a professional…watching this game a 2nd-time, on tape, at my own pace, rewinding and rewatching certain plays – this was a true piece of art. The best football game that I’ve seen in a long time.

I don’t mean ‘best’ as in ‘most entertaining’ like witnessing a crazy hail mary finish or weird fumble when you thought the clock was all but running out or there was some 20+ point comeback in the 4th-quarter. I mean, this was true art – two great football teams playing great football at each other, both sides of the ball playing at a high level, but the offensive play calling and execution was so brilliant, the QBs so smart, the players so one-upping making big plays…the defenses couldn’t contain them. In a 47-42 game, really good defense was actually displayed here – just the offenses were *insert Chef’s Kiss here*.

I walked away from this game, for the first time, really thinking the Cleveland Browns were legit. I thought they were more likely the also-rans of the great AFC teams…BUF and LAC, and maybe KC…especially after CLE lost it to KC Week 1. Now, I ‘believe’. This was as great a performance from a football team you could have asked for…and that’s with the Browns playing with a weak WR group and losing Denzel Ward 9 plays into the game (which was probably the difference in the game).

The Browns are legit.

The Bills and the Chargers are legit.

The Chiefs and the power teams in the NFC are cute stories not deserving mention in the BUF-LAC-CLE war ongoing.

The Chargers are this good -- beating KC and CLE in successive weeks…and they are missing their ace linebacker (Murray) and top OL LT (Brian Bulaga).

Unreal game, I don’t want to step on it by any nitpicking discussion of ‘plays’. Just take a few hours away from reality and watch this game as a fan of great football/teams.

The Browns are going to win the AFC North and the Chargers will win the AFC West, end of story (barring QB injury). Getting the home field for LAC or CLE or BUF is HUGE. LAC is hindered if they have to travel to CLE or BUF (or KC) in January. The reverse is not as true. LAC gets to the Super Bowl ONLY (likely) if they have the #1 seed/home field every game.

If LAC beat PIT Week 11, whereas BUF lost to PIT Week 1…that might be the edge for the title for LAC, right there.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- As I mentioned earlier, this was a stellar performance by both teams. So, let’s first discuss the giant dud in this game…Odell Beckham Jr. (2-20-0/3).

The Browns are SO MUCH better when OBJ isn’t there or when he’s deemphasized…like this game. In every big spot in the 2nd-half, Baker wasn’t even looking at him. So, as the game went, OBJ started running half-hearted routes and slow-walking back to the huddles, etc.

That guy, OBJ, is a piece of crap…and should be gone from the league because he’s a waste of snaps and a locker room cancer. He’s also a cautionary tale for Kadarius Toney. If I were the Giants, I would trade for or sign the most respected WR on the market and add him this year or this offseason…and pay that guy to be Toney’s personal shadow/coach/motivator/’sponsor’.

If I were the owner of the Giants, I would pay Larry Fitzgerald $500K per month for the next 15 months to be Toney’s personal WR coach (and coach of the other WRs too, but specifically for Toney). And let Fitz do color commentary for the Giants games too so he can start getting ready for his future.

What was I saying? Oh, yeah…OBJ blows. And I think the Browns will cut him if they can’t trade him in the next few weeks. Welcome to Dallas, OBJ…I can see it now.

Early on in this game, the Browns drove down the field and had a 4th & 2 in the red zone, and Baker hit OBJ with an easy over the middle pass for the conversion and then some…but OBJ looked up to see what was going on and treated the incoming pass like someone hurled a wet bar of soap shaped in the form of a football at him. Think I’m kidding? https://youtu.be/Meg9auAjMRk

 -- You know who looked terrific here…I can’t believe I’m saying this…David Njoku (7-149-1/7).

The Browns ran several smart plays using their weak WRs and strong RBs to their advantage. Defenses have to chase the WRs, no matter who they are. They also have to overplay the run game. Njoku would just slip out in to the WIDE open and be available and then speeded off after the catch a few times, including one 71 yards, which was more Njoku running than air yards.

All I know is, in my mind (mistaken memory), all I remember is the Browns playing 2-3 TEs a lot…and if anyone did anything for FF it was Austin Hooper (0-0-0/0). But in the last two games, Hooper has 1 catch on 5 targets, while Njoku has 9 catches on 9 targets (most of that in this game).

The trends say this is just a blip, but my brain is saying…with this weak group of pass game options, Njoku might be ready to take a step up as a bye week fill-in, etc., or maybe better than that. He’s mostly available over all FF waivers, but if he has another pop game next week…then everyone comes shopping.

YTD Snap counts:

237 = Hooper (67.5%)

219 = Njoku (62.4%)

143 =Bryant (40.7%)

YTD FF Half-PPR PPG:

9.8 = Njoku (most of it Week 5)

4.6 = Hooper

2.0 = Bryant

Two games with 75+ yards this season, and three games under 20 yards.

All Njoku’s targets in 2021 so far: https://youtu.be/fTJXHuyeWL0

 -- You know I love, and you love Mike Williams (8-165-2/16)…and many FFMers own him in Dynasty and/or redraft…so, we LOVED this game. Just note it was made possible by Denzel Ward going down 9 snaps in and then Williams (and Herbert roasting the backup corner, A.J. Green). There was some good fortune here along with Williams ballin’.

 -- Austin Ekeler (17-66-2, 3-53-1/5) is straight fire right now, and I thought the Browns would clamp him down to a marginal game here…so, I’m an idiot (not that I would ever bench him, just thought he’d have a lid on him). Ruminate on how dumb you think I am later; I want to ask…did you notice who the #2 RB was in this game?

53 snaps = Ekeler

26 snaps = Joshua Kelley (2-17-0, 0-0-0/0)…memba him?

00 snaps = Roundtree (only played special teams)

Kelley got the push over Roundtree this week, with Justin Jackson hurt (as always). And Kelley looked good here…legit. He was playing in several key spots.

I bring this up because…you know how everyone goes crazy off waivers for the #2 RB when the #1 RB goes down on Sunday/Monday, are you familiar with this…have you heard about this thing? Yeah, it’s true, I’m not joking…people love #2 RBs when the #1 RB goes down. ESPECIALLY if it’s on a top offense with a great O-Line.

What happens if Austin Ekeler gets hurt for 2-4 weeks?

I’m just sayin…

My vote/the guy I’m watching is a still talented Kelley – and he looked darn good running the ball here.

  -- Justin Herbert (26-43 for 398 yards, 4 TDs/0 INT) was wonderful here, but I need to point out that Baker Mayfield (23-32 for 305 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) subtly went toe-to-toe with Herbert, with far inferior weapons.

This may have been the best game of Baker’s NFL career…the turning point where he should be looked at as a top 10 QB, regardless of weaker FF numbers. Looked at as a guy who can win a Super Bowl. He’s not all the way there yet, but he’s getting there. Having to keep up with Hebert against a really top-notch pass defense is not easy…and Baker was out there slinging. Still QB2 for FF…but he’s got top talent. If he ever gets rid of OBJ and gets better WRs to work with, who knows if he’ll start popping for FF.

 -- Baker can’t pop for FF because the Browns are such a run-heavy team, with good reason. Nick Chubb (25-161-1, 1-9-0/1) is the best runner of the ball in the NFL outside of Henry and maybe Cook. And Kareem Hunt (12-61-2, 5-28-0/6) is the heart and soul of this offense.

You beat the Chargers by running it at them…CLE had 35 carries for 230 rush yards and 3 TDs, 6.6 ypc here.

Good news for your FF RB facing this LAC defense…so, next week it’s Baltimore. Well, I take that back then…that’s a win for the Chargers run defense.

 -- I don’t look at either DST here as a bust just because they both went off on each other.

The Browns have some serious firepower on their D-Line…turning formerly washed up things into something like Malik McDowell (1 tackle, 1.0 sack) and Takk McKinley (1 tackle). Even Jadeveon Clowney (DNP) has played better here. No Clowney, no Ward…not at full strength for this one.

I’d argue you could use the CLE-DST the rest of the season, every week…except Week 13 bye and Week 16 at GB isn’t a treat. Week 6 v. ARI is them with Kyler iffy and their starting center down.

The Chargers-DST had several occasions where their backs were against the wall and they stopped CLE or held their drive to a field goal. They’ve given up stuff to KC and CLE this season…not a crime. Held down WSH-DAL-LV. When Kenneth Murray returns, then they’re even better.

This LAC-CLE game in a 3+ minute viewing: https://youtu.be/AiyJI5Kmcro

Snap Counts of Interest:

50 = J Cook

40 = Parham

53 = Ekeler

26 = Kelley

52 = Hooper

46 = Njoku

31 = H Bryant

58 = OBJ

49 = DPJ

34 = Higgins

03 = Felton

R.C. Fischer

FFM

14 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Patriots 25, Texans 22

The Patriots were my Survivor pool pick of the week. I didn’t love it, but I didn’t love much of anything (bettor wise) this week and going against Houston is not a bad way to try and survive…you’d think.

I shoulda lost…I shoulda been wiped out of my big Survivor pool. The Texans should’ve beaten the Patriots here. And there was some luck involved for Houston, but honestly the Texans dropped several INTs plus a dropped TD pass (leading to an FG instead)…plus missed XPs. This was Houston’s game, they led 22-9 early 3rd-quarter, but they botched it away in the end.

Houston gave CLE a tussle Week 2. They shoulda beat NE here. Had Tyrod Taylor stayed healthy, the Texans might be in the AFC South race to the end. They aren’t terrible. However, they just lost LT Laremy Tunsil for several weeks…so, the fantasy is all slipping away. In the end, the Texans should win 3-5 games. They’re scrappy good.

New England (2-3 now) should’ve lost and sunk to (1-4)…with all that free agent spending getting them nowhere. This team stinks and is uninspired by Belichick. It’s a sinking ship. The Pats are on their way to 5 +/- wins and a lot of soul searching…but the owner will do nothing but watch the ship sink, slowly (while getting special massages in Florida to ease the pain). Belichick has earned the right to go down with the ship.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The Patriots backfield report…

Damien Harris (14-58-1) is the starter, and he looks terrific running the ball. The problem is…he’s not involved in the passing game (for PPR peeps) and the Pats O-Line is devastated with injury right now…and Harris is a little banged up. He’s the for-sure main carry guy but questionable this week and in a bad environment for FF production, facing a top run defense (DAL).

Rhamondre Stevenson (11-23-0) got sprinkled in to get himself up to speed, but he looked very tentative…like a rookie would. He is the hammer…the short yardage, late game salt away bull…eventually. If Harris is out this week, Stevenson would take over main carry duties…but might be over his head at this point.

Brandon Bolden (2-25-0, 4-6-0/4) is playing a lot of the James White role with White gone. 4.7 targets per game and 4.3 catches per game since White left. If you see NE in a lot of passing situations this week, with a Dallas team that doesn’t cover the RB well…Bolden might get 5+ catches in a game script gone his way. He’s a long shot sleeper PPR start Week 6…not a sure thing.

 -- I’ve written about/spoken of Brandon Bolden for Week 6 as some PPR hope more than a few times this week, but you know who might be a better flyer Week 6 play…and beyond, for bye weeks? A guy I’ve never mentioned before, I don’t think… What about David Johnson (2-5-0, 5-46-0/6)?

What caught my attention here is…DJ is the 3rd-down back for HOU, but he’s also lining up as a wideout in 4-5 receiver sets and they are actually throwing him real passes on real routes. I mean, first Cordarrelle Patterson…and now this?

First, watch three highlight plays from this game and (a) tell me DJ doesn’t still have some juice in the tank, and (b) notice the different ways they get him the ball…

It’s an 11-minute video but you need only skip to two sections for 30 seconds…

0:40: Back-to-back plays they will show you

4:16: 3rd & long conversion

https://youtu.be/MgHmJVGtbqA

With Davis Mills at QB…DJ is starting to get used in the passing game more – the 6th most targeted RB in the NFL the last two weeks (10 targets). When you get the ball in the hands of DJ in the open field, magic could happen.

Most of these 3rd-down/satellite backs are in a similar boat…

They play 30-40% of the snaps in games. They play more if more passing downs/hurry up offense is needed. But the last 2 weeks, since Davis Mills, DJ has gone from 30-40% of the snaps to 50%+…in part, because he’s running real routes along with backfield work.

Johnson has led the Houston backfield in snap count for four straight weeks.

We’re moving DJ to our ‘outta nowhere’ RB of the week (Week 6) along with Brandon Bolden for the same vibe…team in a deficit, likely, needing to throw a bunch and they are their team’s main guy for that.

But wait…there’s more. As an added bonus to your purchase of DJ3K, you also get…

1) He faces Arizona next week. If you don’t understand what that means, then…

2) You could run with a Bolden, McKissic, Hines, etc., over DJ this week…pick your satellite back poison…but only one of those names could be traded to a better place in a week or two+. Johnson’s contract is over after this season and if Houston isn’t going anywhere in 2021…why aren’t the Chargers or Chiefs or Ravens or Bills on the line?

David Johnson could be a team’s Kareem Hunt…or Cordarrelle Patterson. And he’d cost just a 6th-7th-rounder. But I’m sure Devonta Freeman will be fine…

 -- Davis Mills (21-29 for 312 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) outplayed Mac Jones (23-30 for 231 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) here. When the Pats got down, and Jones had to play some real QB throwing downfield…he should’ve had 3-4 picks, but the Texans defenders can’t catch things throw right at them, apparently.

As of now…I was WAY off on Davis Mills. I thought he was a joke. He’s actually playing good football. He’s Taylor Heinicke-ish, not a franchise guy at this stage, but I thought he’d be a flat-out bust. He is not. He out-Jimmy Garoppolo’d Mac Jones here…in a battle of QBs who must have gone to the Jimmy Garoppolo training program as youth…or are the secret offspring of Mr. Garoppolo after he had Jimmy. They both play the same, throw the same…only Mills has a little more athleticism than Jones.

It’s possible Justin Fields is the 6th best QB from this 2021 draft right now…he can’t complete a basic forward pass, while Mills is dropping 300+ yards on Belichick…as a rookie…

 -- Chris Moore (5-109-1/5) got a floater deep from Mills, perfectly placed…either genius or luck (looked like luck) as the two defenders couldn’t believe the ball placement as they tried to get to it…which left them out of position after the catch, so Moore snatched and took off for a 67-yard TD. You decide: https://youtu.be/7aunNz6GaPQ

Outside of that, it was a basic day for Moore. He’s a solid hand #4-5-6 WR for a team, not an emerging star.

He also dropped a TD pass in the end zone that turned into a field goal, so he kinda cost them the game, but let’s not talk about that.

 -- The last 3 games for Hunter Henry (6-75-1/8)…

5.0 rec. (6.3 targets), 47.7 yards, 0.67 TDs per game. He’s the 6th-highest scoring PPR TE in PPG since Week 3…tied for 6th with Kelce-Pitts.

There seems to be a growing connection with Henry-Jones, as Jonnu Smith fades off into the distance.

 -- In the last 3 weeks, the Patriots defense has been pushed around by Jameis Winston and Davis Mills but held Tom Brady down in the rain. How can I trust this DST unless it’s a supreme matchup? Week 7 v. NYJ is my last dance with them, if I were to use them again.

Snap Counts of Interest:

31 = D Johnson

26 = Ingram

13 = Lindsay

54 = Conley

50 = Cooks

37 = C Moore

24 = Bolden

22 = Stevenson

21 = Dam Harris

40 = HHenry

40 = Jonnu

R.C. Fischer

FFM

13 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Bears 20, Raiders 9

I loved the Raiders to win this game, covering as the favorite. Shows what I know…they got their arses kicked in the worst game they’ve played this season. Credit the Bears…winners of three of their last 4. I’m not a fan of Nagy or this Bears team in general, but I have to give them some credit – they are beating the teams they are supposed to. And this game was a road upset for them.

The Raiders really never showed up, and it was a penalty festival (like most all games Week 5), and most breaks went against LV…and went in favor of CHI --  but Vegas was bad, the Bears were less bad and got the win.

The Bears have a huge home game with Green Bay this week…and no one is giving them much of a chance to win (4.5 point underdogs at home)…but the Packers aren’t as good as people think, and the Bears aren’t as bad as people (including me) think. The Bears defense is playing solid ball and the Packers have multiple O-Line injuries to see how they go throughout the week. If the Pack is missing two OLs again (Jenkins and Myers) then I’ll probably take the home dog with points.

If the Bears beat GB, they pull into a tie for first in the NFC North…and hold the current tiebreaker. Win or loss this week, probably loss, the Bears schedule will eat them up ahead – we project they end up with around 6 wins this season.

The Raiders fell to (3-2) and have now lost their head coach. I’m thinking the loss of Gruden and move to Rich Bisaccia is at worst ‘no difference’ to the team, but I think there’s an upside because Bisaccia is a better coach and communicator than Gruden. I would not be shocked if the Raiders go out and whoop Denver this week and continue with a hopeful run at a playoff spot. We are projecting they will short of the playoffs at 8 wins, but it’s still early/fluid for all our record projections…and we need to see

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- An unusual RB situation for Chicago in this game…one I didn’t fully realize happened. Damien Williams (16-69-1, 2-20-0/3) started and played all the way through the first couple of series. Rookie Khalil Hebert (18-75-0) sprinkled in after that…but then as the game went on, we saw more and more Herbert.

At first, I thought it was to give Williams a break…but then it became clear they were splitting. To start the 2nd-half, Herbert started as they exchanged the two RBs in and out all the rest of the game.

If you only watched the 1st-half, you’d think Williams was the clear main role starter. If you watched the 2nd-half only, you’d think Herbert was the lead in a 60/40 split.

Best way to describe the Chicago RB situation…it’s a 50/50-ish split of some kind between Williams/Herbert…on a team that will run the ball a lot because they have to.

In the end, in this game…

34 snaps = Herbert

31 snaps = Dam. Williams

 -- The Bears have to run the ball a lot because Justin Fields (12-20 for 111 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 3-4-0) is not ready yet (and may never be close to the guy they hope). This was a pretty sad game, another in a string, for Fields. They are basically having to game plan around his inability to throw passes like a real NFL QB.

Most all his passes are forced to his first read, and then the throws vary from ‘off’ to ‘way off’. He’s playing like a rookie, a poorly coached one. A heavy run game is the Bears only hope…run game and defense.

And Fields hasn’t been a threat to run…he looks tentative to run…and when it is a designed run play, he looks ‘small’/thin and easy to tackle. He’s not scaring anyone with his feet.

 -- Because Fields is so bad, Allen Robinson (4-32-0/5) is, and has been, an FF-dud all season. Doomed to be a WR3-4 with Fields. I love Darnell Mooney (3-35-0/5), but this exactly why I didn’t draft him in redraft and traded him as hot as I could in Dynasty this August…he’s wonderful, and he has a decent connection with Fields, but Fields is so rough right now you can’t use the WRs with any FF confidence.

Neither are worth buying low on because their current owners are probably:

1) Close to cutting Mooney, and

2) Still adore the ARob name so they hope he’ll turn vs. trading as a WR3-4. Tim Patrick is a better name to own than Allen Robinson, and Patrick is often on waivers right now.

 -- Speaking of useless WRs…

I love Bryan Edwards (2-22-0/5) but he continues to get random, low targeting…and then in his game he dropped a leaping 20+ yard TD that could’ve juiced his visibility with the team. Then in the 2nd-quarter comeback effort he dropped a wide-open 40+ yard bomb right in his hands, but he looked to see where the defense was and took his eye off the ball.

Of course, he made a couple nice/clutch grabs late in the 4th-quarter but not enough to make up for the other issues.

Tim Patrick is working nicely. Bryan Edwards is not. I’ve decided to make Tim Patrick the litmus test of WRs this week, for some reason.

 -- Since Week 2 (Wks2-5), Darren Waller (4-45-0/8) is the #10 PPG PPR TE in Fantasy…behind David Njoku, Hunter Henry, and Mike Gesicki. Yet, every Knox or Schultz owner is dying to trade them + something to get Waller. You shouldn’t. I don’t think it’s a blip…I think Waller is good-not-great for FF in Vegas. If he were with the Chargers, he’d be more awesome. With Vegas…a nice TE1, with 10-15 other TEs claiming the same week-to-week.

You’re holding onto that opening week MNF game for Waller too much. Cleanse your soul.

Things may change with the new coach, we’ll see.

 -- The Raiders started Amik Robertson (7 tackles) at CB this game, and he was not good at that…but was good for IDP tackles…7 tackles in each of his last two games. He’s probably not long for the world of starting CBs, however.

 -- The Bears-DST is getting better…

#7 in NFL PPG allowed

#12 rushing yards allowed

#12 in passing yards allowed

#8 in total yards allowed

#1 in sacks

#5 in DST scoring

They held down CIN, DET, LV this season. They got popped by CLE, LAR. They are flowing with the quality of opponent. The rankings look great, but I’m not fully buying it at this point.

Snap Counts of Interest:

46 = Jacobs

12 = Drake

51 = Kmet

25 = Jimmy Graham (still in the NFL, FYI)

34 = Herbert

31 = Dam Williams

R.C. Fischer

FFM

13 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Steelers 27, Broncos 19

This was not a battle of two of the better teams in football…

The Steelers were the better team, but that’s not saying much. Pitt led 24-6 in the 4th-quarter, and everyone thought it was over. Then the Broncos sprung to life with two TDs in about 5 minutes to cut the game to 24-19.

The Steelers drove down for a field goal and an 8-point lead with 2:20 left, and then Denver drove down again to 1st & goal with under a minute left – 4 chances to get a TD and then for the 2-point conversion…but they could not get the TD part with 4 shots at it, and ‘ball game’.

The Steelers win to stop the bleeding of their season, they are now (2-3) looking to get a win Sunday night hosting Seattle to get to (3-3) before their Week 7 bye…and getting Geno not Russ is just what the doctor ordered for Pitt. It won’t be enough, in the end, we’re projecting the Steelers to finish (7-10).

Denver started out (3-0) but has lost their last two (finally playing better teams) and are now (3-2). We see all kinds of problems with this Denver team. They have kind of a do-or-die Week 6 hosting Las Vegas (3-2) this week. It’s a big game for the AFC West positioning…and for the wild card down the road between these two teams. We project Denver to hit 8-9 wins, but more leaning 7-8 wins. Week 6 is a big week if the Broncos want to be a wild card this season. It’s not a very good team, but they have a schedule pushing them to .500+ if they can capitalize…and I’m not sure they can.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- This was a really bad/lucky game by Ben Roethlisberger (15-25 for 253 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs). He’s fading away. He’s no longer reading the coverage and making sharp throws to secondary and tertiary receiver options. He’s guessing ahead at preplanned throws…he’s throwing to spots hoping the receiver is there before the defender.

Ben threw zero picks in the game, but he nearly threw 4-5 of them in reality. So many quick throws ahead of the receiver’s break…and the defenders often had a beat on it but just missed it or dropped the pick. And this wasn’t the O-Line letting Ben down,  forcing his quick passing ways so that he had a reason to get rid of the ball fast…no, this was the best performance game by the O-Line this season, and Ben was still acting like the football was a hot potato too often.  

Ben is still a former great QB, so some of his lofted timing passes were thrown out to the right spot for the receiver to run under and catch…but as many times the throws were way off the mark on the guess where they’ll be toss.

Ben’s talent fade is still ‘risk on the table’ for the related FF assets as we go this season.

 -- Ben’s guessing game/passing game FF-helps two WRs and one RB. Ben is only throwing where he has comfort on where he thinks/knows the WR is headed to in their route…or where he can toss a jump ball with the hopes the receiver comes down with…or his real favorite = the safety valve to the RB.

Dionte Johnson (2-72-1/2) is who Ben is most comfortable with knowing where he is…typically Diontae gets the bulk of the targets but after the early bomb TD, Diontae didn’t see a pass again until the 4th-quarter. Very odd. Good coverage by DEN to take away his comfort guy.

However, Ben has Chase Claypool (5-13-0-1/6) in times of trouble/can throw it up and hope for the best. This was the best game, technically, that Claypool may have played in the NFL…he ran some great routes and was wide open for Ben on a few occasions, and CC is so big that Big Ben can see him/has a lot of radius to throw to. Also, when Ben sees CC has one-on-one deep, he’ll try and guess a deep ball out his way…and Claypool is good enough to win some of those. But here it was more route work and Ben having time to find it/let it develop a few times.

This game of chanced Ben has with Claypool is going to have some misfires/good coverage/too much pass rush leading to games where CC has 1-3 catches for 25 yards and you are FF-mad, but then there will be these games where Claypool looks like a million backs and makes plays and makes it all worth it (like this one).

JuJu being gone for good…it’s a big help to funnel even more work to the trusted Diontae and Claypool duo.

Seattle has a limited pass rush and a weak secondary – it might be a sweet Week 6 for DJ and CC.

 -- The RB that benefits from Ben’s reduced state is obviously Najee Harris (23-122-1, 2-20-0/5)…the dump pass in-crisis option is huge for Ben, but he didn’t need to do that much here because Ben actually had time…and the run game was finally working.

Opposing teams have slammed the door on Najee all season…and then he gashed Denver. Why? For the first time this season, Najee had holes/options running straight ahead…he didn’t have to try (and fail) to dance everything outside.

Either the Steelers O-Line got good all of a sudden…or the Broncos run defense stinks. I would blame Denver’s run defense. It’s ranked well in the NFL, but it hasn’t played anyone either.

 -- Javonte Williams (8-61-0, 3-25-0/3) is the better rookie RB talent over Najee, to me…but not to his NFL team. The Steelers are all in on Najee, while Denver is playing footsie with a duo of Javonte and Melvin Gordon (9-34-0, 2-9-0/2).

The offensive pace instantly picks up with Javonte in the game…and when Williams gets the ball dumped to him in the passing game, he always seems on the verge of breaking things for a longer play.

The RB-duo concept is cute when Denver is winning, but now that they are losing…people are getting restless for more offensive firepower. We may not be far away from Javonte as the 70/30 lead…or 80/20 with Gordon cut or traded at the deadline to free Javonte of the Gordon cloud. Gordon ain’t taking a secondary role, he’ll piss and moan about it until he’s moved.

When Mike Boone is back active, that might be the moment Denver can think of such things. A few more losses in a row would probably force a change as well. It’s possible Denver may lose their next two and force change to occur…

 -- This was another reminder of just how good Courtland Sutton (7-120-1/11) is. Too bad Teddy is not more consistent…because Sutton should be a star already. Sutton finally got his first TD, after weeks of knocking on the door. He had a shot at a 2nd TD but Teddy is Teddy and threw a pick to end the game in front of Sutton.

 -- Tim Patrick (7-89-0/9) is the #35 in PPR PPG among WRs so far this season…ahead of DeVonta Smith, Christian Kirk, Tyler Boyd, Marvin Jones, Marquez Callaway among others. But Patrick is usually on waivers and not the other guys I just listed.

 -- Kendall Hinton (2-25-1/3) is now the Denver #3 WR in three WR sets…so happy for him. He played a solid game here, in on 65% of the snaps. He’s not ready for FF usage yet, but he’s starting to climb the ladder towards it and out of obscurity.

 -- The Steelers-DST played well here for 3+ quarters and then were an open door that allowed Denver back in the game. They are good…they are a good start Week 6 v. SEA because of Geno…but then a Week 7 bye…and then a pretty rough stretch the rest of the season.

Final Analysis: https://youtu.be/O2TRU3fgGr4

Snap Counts of Interest:

60 = Diontae

36 = Claypool

25 = JuJu

16 = Cody White

32 = Freiermuth

25 = Ebron

57 = Patrick

54 = Sutton

39 = Hinton

36 = M Gordon

25 = Javonte

19 = Caden Sterns

Ross Jacobs

FFM

13 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Bills 38, Chiefs 20 

Well, the secret is out. Those of us here at FFM have known for a while that all was not well with the Chiefs and that their problems would catch up to them eventually. We also knew ahead of the crowd that the Bills were a team on the rise, the better, tougher, deeper Chiefs. Now the media and casual fans know too.

I'm going to start with the Bills because I don't like how the media is framing this as a Chiefs letdown or something is wrong with the Chiefs. They do have their problems, but this is the same team as last year, the same team as the year before that. They are a good team. But this wasn't them blowing the game or playing worse or any such nonsense. This was the Buffalo Bills going into hostile Kansas City and kicking the ever living shit out of them.

This is a Bills team that isn't afraid or intimidated by the Chiefs. This is a Bills team that is the deepest, most complete, most well-balanced, most well-coached, most disciplined team in the league. And they just destroyed one of their next closest challengers on the road. This isn't about the Chiefs falling down. This is about the Bills rising up.

I don't have enough good things to say about Buffalo. They are incredible and so fun to watch on both sides of the ball. They now lead the league in offensive ppg at 34.4 and they also lead the league in defensive ppg at 12.8. They are outscoring their opponents by 21.6 points per game on average. That is bonkers. And when you look at their schedule you realize they only have one more game against a team anywhere close to their level, and that's the defending champs in December. It's entirely possible that they won't lose another game all year. They are that good.

Ok, let's talk about the Chiefs. We've already discussed this quite a bit the last few weeks and even going back to last year. The Chiefs have one of the great advantages in football. They have a cheat code in Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is not the problem. Anyone that says Mahomes hasn't had the best year, or Mahomes doesn't look right, or anything like that has no idea what they are talking about.

The problem is that this Chiefs team has been getting their asses bailed out by Mahomes for years now. They constantly make mistakes, run stupid plays, let the opponent score on them over and over, and 9 times out of 10 Mahomes is able to save them at the end of the game with some miracle because he is the best player in the league. But one player can only carry a team so long. Look at Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. They win 10 or 11 games every single year, but it's not because of the defense, or the run game, or the coaches. It's just Russell is amazing.

You want more examples? What happened to Indianapolis the year Manning got hurt? Bottom of the league. What happened to the Patriots when Brady left? Collapsed from a perennial 13 game winner to average. What's happening to the Saints without Brees? Same thing.

Elite QB's can make up for a lot of flaws in an organization, and now we are seeing the Chiefs warts in the light of day.

Andy Reid is an ok coach, not bad, but not the genius he's made out to be. Eric Bieniemy is not a good OC just because he breathes the same air as Mahomes. The defense isn't nearly as menacing when they aren't constantly playing with a lead. Even Kelce and Hill, two elite players, wouldn't be nearly as dominant without Mahomes back there throwing them the ball.

Think of it like this: if you had a child that was learning to walk, but he always held onto furniture or held an adult's hand, he's never going to learn to walk properly. At some point he has to let go of what's holding him up, his crutch, and walk by himself.

The Chiefs are like a child that never lets go. Mahomes has been masking the growing problems and flaws because he is so unbelievably good.

So does that mean the Chiefs are suddenly an average team? No but only because they still have Mahomes. They are still going to win double digit games because of him alone. It just may not be enough to win the division or a Superbowl. Of course things can always break perfectly. Mahomes is still capable of beating any team on any given day. It's just not the most likely scenario anymore.

Let's keep in mind though that they have now played the Browns, Ravens, Chargers, and Bills in the first 5 weeks. Those are all playoff teams with good offenses. They still have the Packers and Cowboys on the schedule, but every other game they will be heavy favorites. The Chiefs should be fine moving forward. They will at least keep it close with the Chargers for the division title and could still pull it out. The difference is that when they play the better teams now, they are no longer the bullies, the giant that's near impossible to bring down. They are mortal, they can be beaten, they are just another good team among many in the AFC.

RC Note: I would like to add…

This (Buffalo) is what happens when you have a superior coach at the head of your organization. Sean McDermott should win a special award for his five years in Buffalo...taking over a bad team, bad organization in perhaps the worst city in the NFL you could take a team over...and he has built them into a dominant force. 

One of the first things McDermott did, first taking over the Buffalo job, was dump Sammy Watkins...as the mainstream clutched their pearls at such nonsense. I knew I liked “Stone Cold’ Sean McDermott right then and there. It would be like if I took over the Bengals and traded Ja’Marr Chase a few weeks later (and I would). 

Ron Rivera took the Panthers to the Super Bowl six years ago, out of nowhere...with a top defense, led by then D-C Sean McDermott. Then McDermott got the Buffalo job and Rivera has had a losing record since. 

McDermott has methodically built the Bills, and I am so glad he got this win to establish the Bills are making a Super Bowl run...and that they are better than KC, regardless. 

Meanwhile, Andy Reid spits out nonsense O-Cs who then go and fail as head coaches (Nick Foles delivered Doug Pederson a miracle Super Bowl, before DP went back to failing...and now Frank Reich is a failure as well from that tree)...but the league LOVES the Andy Reid 'coaching tree’, while no one even bothers with McDermott’s ‘tree’. 

I’m happy for McDermott. 

KC is not dead...they just happened to play the two best teams in football, LAC-BUF, the past few weeks. They will be OK, but they are not the best team in the AFC...nor in the AFC West. 

Fantasy Notes

--Hope you bought more Josh Allen (15-26 for 315 yards, 3 TD/0 INT, 11-59-1) stock early in the season while the mainstream was doubting him. Nothing is going to slow this train down. Allen is a top 5 lock and will be in the running to be #1 all year. He has arguably the easiest schedule of all the top guys as well.

--Before the season started I brought up Dawson Knox (3-117-1/4) to RC and asked him if he thought Knox could become Josh Allen's version of Travis Kelce. They are nearly identical in size and athletic numbers so it seemed like a good idea. RC and I ultimately decided it was unlikely because Knox has displayed poor hands in the past and wasn't being treated like a trusted option.

Five weeks into the season Knox has emerged as Allen's second best option behind Diggs. He is TE2 behind...Kelce. Now before we all get too excited, Knox is not being used the same as Kelce is. Right now he's not getting the same kind of targeting that some of the other TE's are. He's just being incredibly efficient when he does get the ball. Allen is finding him deep down the field most of the time. In this game specifically, Knox got lost in coverage for at least two of his big plays.

I'm not saying to fade him because he's rapidly growing in his connection with Allen. I think this is here to stay. What I am saying is I think the big plays will start to fade off a little but Knox should be able to make up for it with growing target numbers each week. He looks like a bona fide top 5 TE for the rest of the season.

--Make it 4 out of 5 games for Stefon Diggs (2-69-0/5) under 70 yards receiving on the year. The trouble for him right now is that the Bills are blowing people out so badly that Allen doesn't need to throw that much. They get up quickly and then just pound the run to finish the game. Don't worry about it. Diggs is going to get his eventually. He's a fantastic buy-low option at the moment. Still has a lot of name value so he won't come cheaply, but an owner that's starting to panic might be willing to move him in the right deal. Coming into this game he was averaging over 10 targets and game and even with only 5 here he's still averaging 9.4 The yards and TD's will catch up to the targets soon.

--With the rise of Knox and fewer pass attempts by Allen the two receivers behind Diggs have really fallen off hard. Cole Beasley (1-5-0/2) and Emmanuel Sanders (3-54-2/5) have seen their numbers fall off hard in recent weeks. Sanders had a nice day because of his two TD's, but that's not something you can count on. Both guys will continue to be on and off useful, but it's going to be maddening trying to predict their big weeks.

--Zach Moss (11-37-0, 3-55-0/4) is now dominating the snaps and touches between him and Devin Singletary (6-25-0, 1-(-2)-0/2). I don't get it. It doesn't make sense if you've watched them for 5 seconds. But it is what it is. Moss is the back to own here.

*RC NOTE: I mentioned Moss in the TUE Video Q&A (on demand for those that would like to review it...3 hours of goodness). There is a shift/push to have Moss as the lead back for BUF now. I’m still skeptical of Buffalo RBs for FF, for Allen-reasons, but Moss has been productive and is about to get more push...that’s a good thing for FF. 

--The only thing that's changed with the Chiefs in fantasy land is that Clyde Edwards-Helaire sprained his MCL and will be out a few weeks. In his place Darrel Williams (5-27-0, 3-18-0/5) will be the primary replacement and should receive about the same workload as what CEH usually got. If you weren't all that excited about Helaire then I don't see why you'd go wild for Williams. He'll be a back end RB2 option that you hope scores a TD to push him higher, and you will only get a few weeks from him. Don't blow your entire FAAB budget on him. He's a nice temporary pickup and nothing more.

*RC NOTE: We discussed Jerick McKinnon a lot on the Video Q&A last night, check it out on demand if you wish. There’s a window of opportunity here for him. 

--Mecole Hardman (9-76-0/12) somehow pulled down 9 catches here. I was shocked when I saw the stats because I barely remembered him catching the ball at all during the game. I've said for weeks that the Chiefs were trying to push him as the #2 option and here you go. Trouble is he's just not very good. The only reason he got the numbers here was because the Bills were bullying Kelce and playing two deep to keep Tyreek in front of them. It opened up the middle for easy throws to Hardman.

Other teams may try to copy this approach, but it likely won't work as well for them because they don't have the Bills personnel. I don't think this is the start of any big Hardman breakout. He was just the beneficiary of the Buffalo game plan.

--The big debut of Josh Gordon (1-11-0/1) resulted in one catch on one target. That number will likely grow as Gordon gets more acclimated with the team, but I still have my doubts about how high he can go. One interesting note with him...RC and I were texting while watching the game and when the announcers said Gordon's name for his catch we both thought it was 6'6” 240 Jody Fortson at first. Gordon looks huge, more like a TE than a WR. Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing. The size and muscle might rob him of his speed. I couldn't get a good feel for him though as his snaps were so limited. Going to be keeping an eye on him obviously.

*RC Note: DST talk…

Everyone is killing the Chiefs defense, but note that they have faced CLE-BAL-LAC-PHI-BUF so far this season...no break at all for KC. This week they get Taylor Heinicke. I’m not suggesting that the KC-DST is something great in hiding, but may not be as bad as everyone thinks...and that Heinicke may not be that special just because he is facing KC. 

HOLD the Buffalo-DST through their Week 7 bye, and pounce on them if anyone drops them...and look to trade FOR them in a deal Week 7 to an owner who would let the on-a-bye DST go. The schedule for Buffalo-DST from Week 8 on is AMAZING...and the Bills defense is TERRIFIC. 

IDP Notes

--One of the most impressive rookies so far this year has to be Greg Rousseau (5 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT). He is growing by leaps and bounds every week. He has 18 tackles and 3 sacks already this year despite playing about 50% of the snaps so far. He's a big part of why Buffalo's defense has become so dominant this year because last year all they lacked was a pass rush. No longer. Rousseau looks like the real deal. He's got the size, speed, and strength of a prototypical 4-3 defensive end. The only reason he fell in the draft was his inconsistent play and some character questions. So far those haven't been an issue at all. Fantastic pickup by the Bills.

Snap Counts of Interest

55 = Dawson Knox

22 = Reggie Gilliam

42 = Zach Moss

15 = Devin Singletary

R.C. Fischer

FFM

12 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Cowboys 44, Giants 20

It’s not worth reading a ton into this game, the performance/outputs…because this started out a fistfight but one-by-one the Giants key players suffered fluke injuries and pretty quickly into the game…Jones-Barkley-Golladay was replaced by Glennon-Booker-Collin Johnson. Hard to win with that drop off. This report will mainly focus on the FF fallout of the NYG injuries ahead.

But I want to credit the Giants for fighting with all they had, despite the circumstances. Midway through the 3rd-quarter it was only 17-13 Dallas…but the in-game injuries proved too much to overcome, the dam broke, and it turned into a Dallas blowout – but that’s not where this was headed initially.

If I were a Giants fan, I would be mad at my injury luck…but I would not blame or look to change Joe Judge. He nearly pulled off a miracle division title last year, without Saquon (which is now normal) and then bad-Daniel Jones and no O-Line…and no WRs. Doug Pederson screwed them…or they would have had it (remember that Week 17 event?). I think NYG was in line to pull off the upset here too, but the injury gods screwed them.

Daniel Jones has improved. The O-Line is improved. The WR group is VASTLY improved. The defense is very good…if Blake Martinez hadn’t gotten hurt, it’s a top 10 type defense in the NFL. Injury has stripped away all Joe Judge’s top guys. They should not change Judge or O-C Garrett (hey, Jones is better as a QB now than prior…I don’t like Garrett myself, but he doesn’t deserve firing due to any negligence with the offense) nor should they fire GM Gettleman. They have a really nice core of talent, and it was coming together. They deserve to see this through. With this loss (and mass injury) their season is effectively over, but it should not be blamed on the coaching staff.

Dallas might have won anyway, but they got a gift here with all NYG’s bad luck. Dallas is going to win the NFC East by a mile if Dak stays healthy. Dallas is one cornerback, and a healthy return of Demarcus Lawrence away from being the best team in the NFC East. Mike McCarthy is up for Coach of the Year right now…and it might be just that his staff is very good, but McCarthy is the head guy, so he gets the rewards. Jerry Jones as Executive of the Year is on the table as well.

Now, if I know Jerry Jones…he’s going to inject himself into this and ruin it. The first thought I had on how he would do it – he’ll trade for Odell Beckham Jr., and give him a contract extension. Right now, Jones does not get my vote for Exec. of the Year, because where was he getting any of these ace CBs on the loose? Carolina keeps getting them all. Regardless, Dallas is a Super Bowl threat…1-2 things away…things they can trade for. Jerry has to make his move right here, right now. He needs to empty his chamber to trade for Xavien Howard.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Saquon Barkley’s (2-9-0) ankle sprain looked terrible, but apparently isn’t as bad as they thought…a low ankle sprain. They are saying that he’ll miss this week, but I suspect he’s out two weeks minimum. No need to rush him back…he has no need to rush back until he’s 100%.

When Barkley went down, Devontae Booker (16-42-1, 3-16-1/4) put up nice numbers…but really it was due to the TDs. 2.6 ypc…16 yards receiving, really? That’s exciting? He just happened to get the TDs.

Earlier in the year, when Barkley was out…Booker barely touched the ball as the lead back. It’s Booker’s show with the emergency need for NYG, but it may not be all that exciting. And if Daniel Jones is out, then it’s going to be even worse.

I thought Barkley would be out for 4+ weeks at first glance at that injury…and that made Booker an interesting/desperate waiver guy this week. Now, the Barkley injury may not be as bad…and the NYG situation at QB may be off too…this may not be as attractive as it seems. It’s something, it’s touches…but likely disappointing.

 -- Speaking of the NYG QB situation…

Daniel Jones’s (5-13 for 98 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs, 3-9-0) concussion/playing status won’t be known until later in the week. It’s up in the air. Mike Glennon (16-25 for 196 yards, 1 TDs/2 INTs) is not the worst backup QB, but he’s pretty bad. NYG has nothing on the practice squad (Brian Lewerke), so Glennon it is if Jones is out…and all the offense suffers for it.

The Rams-DST gets this NYG team Week 6…no Barkley-Jones (maybe)-Golladay…or Toney (maybe). It could be an epic DST scoring event.

Glennon drags down all things at WR…maybe he hits a deep ball pop by surprise to John Ross (1-13-0/5) is about all the hope there is if Toney is out.

 -- Let’s finish out the NYG injury report with the NYG WRs…

Kenny Golladay (0-0-0/3) has looked terrific, to me, this season…but now he’s hurt again and out for at least a week. Side note: Trevon Diggs (5 tackles, 2 PDs) has become ‘that guy’…the shutdown guy to be feared by opposing WRs. He rattled Golladay here. Diggs has become more feared than James Bradberry (2 tackles, 1 PD).

With Golladay out and Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton potentially out again…NYG is left with John Ross, Collins Johnson, and hopefully Kadarius Toney (10-189-0/13).

Ahh, Kadarius Toney…

I would now say that he’s the best-looking WR from the 2021 NFL Draft class.

Pre-Draft, for CFM, I noticed the physical gifts…everyone noted the physical gifts. But I also laid out the case for his off-field risk/issues – lazy, underperforming most of his college career, and more into his music career than football…all that being a risk factor to ply his immature self with millions of dollars.

Then what happened this summer? Missing practices. Making coaches mad. Shooting his mouth off in the press. On cue.

What happened in this game – he was amazing…stunning…beautiful…and then the dark side reared its head – punched a player in the helmet. Dumb to throw a punch in a football game as it is, but dumber to throw a punch putting his moneymaking hand at risk by trying to punch a solid plastic object.

Toney is magnificently gifted and is also an immature, deranged person living in a make-believe world where he’s an old school gangster rapper.

You have no idea which side is going to win. In the end, I’m sure the ‘kills his career’ part will win out. However, it could be a sweet ride before the race car hits the wall…like an OBJ 2.0.

Enter at your own risk.

I would not try to buy in after his Week 5…the stove is too hot. Toney has an ankle injury…and a possible team sanctioned ‘suspended for a game or a half’, etc., to deal with….and Mike Glennon possibly to work with. Let Toney have a down Week 6, then look at dealing for him if you want in. If he has a nice Week 6…then his price is still high, and you didn’t really lose anything waiting…but his price may go down with 1-2 weaker games. I want in on something special like this, but I’m willing to wait.

Remember how awesome Rondale Moore was in his first two games? Now what’s his vibe? You don’t even know if you should redraft-roster him any longer. It happens that fast with rookies. Have patience.

As far as this game…a few notes:

*Stunning body control. Stunning ability to stop-start and change directions and accelerate. He’s like a bigger Tyreek Hill…but no one is Tyreek…

*The idiot O-C of KC can’t figure out how to get Tyreek Hill the ball, but Jason Garrett found every way possible to get Toney the ball in his first real start.

*Toney caught bubble screens, medium #1 WR timing routes, slants, and deep balls. He caught a medium route pass and ran right through defenders like they were standing still, getting tackled by his shoestrings to fall a yard short of a TD.

*Toney ran a wildcat play and fell a yard short of a rushing TD.

*Toney had a pass play called for him as well…a WR option pass.

*When Golladay went down, Toney started drawing Trevon Diggs some…and Diggs couldn’t really handle him.

*Brilliant play design by Garrett and Judge. It makes you pissed off at Reid-Bieniemy for constantly wasting Tyreek Hill, imprisoning him as a ‘deep ball guy’ when he could get 10+ catches per game around the line of scrimmage to then try and make plays after the catch. Instead, they did that with Mecole Hardman last week…and, surprise, they lost again and are in last place.

*Perhaps the most amazing thing about Toney’s game here…10 catches, 13 targets, 1 carry, 1 pass attempt…and he only played 54% of the snaps (37) in the game. Hats off to Judge-Garrett.

To that I say, Eric Bieniemy and Andy Reid…go piss off. You guys are morons with the way you use Tyreek Hill. Andy Reid…all your O-C’s turned HCs are utter garbage from your ‘tree’…Doug Pederson, Matt Nagy, and whenever the joke of Eric Bieniemy gets a gig. Oh, but you won a Super Bowl…thank Patrick Mahomes. You should be winning multiple ones with Mahomes…but now you’re in last place. Congrats.

Toney’s workday: https://youtu.be/QuD4z9FltWE

 -- Dalton Schultz (6-79-0/8) is the Dallas #1 WR…as a TE…he is the BFF of Dak, not Amari right now…and certainly not Lamb.

Season to date catches:

26 = Schultz

25 = Cooper

24 = Lamb

FF PPR PPG since Week 2 (Wks2-5):

15.4 = Schultz

12.3 = CeeDee

10.5 = Amari

07.8 = C Wilson

Amari’s last four games catch counts in each game: 3-3-3-3.

CeeDee Lamb catches in the last three games: 3-2-4

Schultz catches in his last three games: 6-6-6

Rec. TDs since Week 2 (Wks2-5):

3 = Schultz

2 = Ced Wilson

2 = Amari

1 = CeeDee

Schultz is the #5 FF PPG PPR TE for the season…just ahead of #6 Darren Waller, but Schultz is still seen as a randomly lucky TE who is a random TE1 that will fall at any time. People with Schultz are emailing me saying, “I need to improve my TEs…what should I do to trade for Waller or Kittle?”

Waller and Kittle are not upgrades from Schultz…get that into your brain.

 -- I hope you’re preparing to cash in on Bet The Close’s Chris Bilello’s Defensive Rookie of the Year preseason bet on Micah Parsons (8 tackles, 3 QB hits)…taking advantage of the favorable preseason odds on that prop bet.

Parsons has 9 QB hits the past 4 games as he transitioned to DE while Demarcus Lawrence is out. He’s playing terrific football and is on the high-profile team that is very likely to win their division and make a Super Bowl run – he has everything going for him to walk away with that DROY award with ease.

The Rams have Donald-Ramsey that the media likes to boast about. It might be Parsons-Diggs they blather about in the near future…that Dallas has two of the great young defenders in the game.

 -- Tony Pollard (14-75-0, 4-28-0/4) is getting a ton of touches for a backup. Pollard has more carries this season than…Chase Edmonds and Miles Sanders, among other ‘starters’.

Carries + catches, Pollard has one more than Javonte Williams this season.

And Pollard is only rising in touches. Since Week 2 (Wks2-5), Pollard has more carries than Conner-Fournette-Mk Davis, Moss, Jamaal Williams, M. Carter, Javonte, Latavius, D. Swift among others.

Snap Counts of Interest:

57 = Schultz

31 = Jarwin

47 = Elliott

31 = Pollard

50 = Engram

41 = Rudolph

41 = Ross

37 = Toney

30 = Collin Johnson

R.C. Fischer

FFM

12 October 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 5: Falcons 27, Jets 20

The Falcons were up 17-0 early 2nd-quarter…the beneficiaries of some fortuitous penalties and just raw Patterson and Pitts domination. It was 20-3 at the half, Atlanta…the Falcons looked OK, and the Jets couldn’t get out of their own way. But then the Jets mounted a comeback…cutting the lead to 20-17 mid-4th-quarter but the Falcons responded with a TD on the next series and withstood the Jets ‘hurry up’ flurry in the end for the victory.

Atlanta wasn’t overly impressive, but they were better, more sound series to series than the erratic Jets. Atlanta is that dumb Washington game  ending in Week 4 away from a three-game win streak (but they’re close to being 0-5 as well). I don’t know how they’ve nearly won 3 in a row…because the Falcons are awful. But they’ve gotten an easy schedule the last 3 weeks…and it continues ahead with Miami Week 6.

If the Falcons beat Miami Week 6, people will think they’re ‘fixed’, but they are not. They’re winning games because of Cordarrelle Patterson and taking advantage of an easy schedule. We project the Falcons to finish with 5-6 wins.  

The Jets…they aren’t learning or getting better. Zach Wilson is still taking too many risks, which is admirable at times but unnecessary at others. That’s a sign of the coaches not getting through to him. You’d think Wilson would be improving in this area, but he’s really not. He’s been better than his way-too-flamboyant 4 INT game vs. the Patriots, he’s starting to check down to RBs a bit more…but he still tries to gun it like Ricky Bobby’s dad in a racecar as soon as the Jets are down. Wilson is coachable, I believe, so the fact that they aren’t reeling him in is a concern – a concern that the staff isn’t managing the problem. I can’t believe Wilson just goes rogue. He’s not that kinda player.

The Jets have a solid+ defense and an erratic offense…one that the too young/too inexperienced brother of Saleh’s BFF is taking major heat for. And it’s probably part of the overall Jets-O problem. Wilson needs guidance/a slap but more so the young O-C as well needs help…not a good combination of needs, and no one to really help fix it right now.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- We should start with Kyle Pitts (9-119-1/10)…

I’m not sure if this was a breakout…not leading the concept/idea/thought one way or the other. I mean…I truly don’t know.

I’m not seeing ‘dominant’ with Pitts yet, but the potential problem is – he’s so smooth it doesn’t look like he’s trying but he’s just better than everyone with ease. Or is he still tentative or restricted? He’s not ‘obvious’ (to me) watching him…not like how much better Javonte Williams is than Najee Harris at a glance. Not like how different in movement/skills Kadarius Toney is than Ja’Marr Chase.

With that, what I see…

Pitts is not getting open like a dominant stud. He’s usually tightly covered and needs a great throw for him to go get. The good news is…Ryan is putting it near him more, and Pitts has a superhuman ability to just snatch passes in a crowd…so, Pitts just need targets -- and he can do the rest from there. But I wish he was just beating the pants off of coverage, but he is not. In college he did. His feet were amazing. I haven’t seen him open it up in the NFL much.

Additionally, I don’t see any innovative ways they are using Pitts, but this game, without Ridley, they forced Pitts targets…finally. Will they keep it up when Ridley returns? I do not know. At least this game established…Ryan can trust Pitts in real games. He hasn’t been that to Ryan prior.

The good news = Pitts showed us why we should be excited.

The maybe-bad news = We don’t know if this keeps up when Ridley is back.

Arthur Smith has shown me NOTHING as an offensive guru, so I am worried that this keeps up…and that Smith will ever get Pitts working in unique ways anytime soon.

 -- I don’t feel like the Falcons are working to or as desperate to use Pitts as they are Cordarrelle Patterson (14-54-0, 7-60-0/9)…and that’s why I’m encouraged but cautious on Pitts enthusiasm. However, I have had no such fears about CP…even as every single NFL and FF analyst stoked the fear of ‘low snap counts’ and ‘this can’t keep up’ last week – I chose to take the lesser travelled path of…’look at the upside when his snaps go up’. They had to go up, CP was playing too well not to see more work.

In this game…

CP played a season high 59% of the snaps here. Mike Davis (64%)

CP took a season high 14 carries.

CP saw a season high 9 targets.

CP threw a season high one pass (incomplete).

This week will be full of ‘but that’s because Ridley was out’. I’m not listening to THEM on Patterson. Why should I? They’ve been wrong or ignorant of it all along.

Patterson is the current #2 RB in PPR PPG…just behind Derrick Henry.

Patterson is the current #3 WR in PPR PPG…just behind Tyreek Hill and Cooper Kupp.

If it all ended today…we couldn’t complain with what we got so far, but I think: https://youtu.be/lkjXcRLNZHQ?t=15

 -- Some detailed football analysis from a pro at this: All the Jets WRs suck.

Corey Davis (4-45-0/7) is as bad a #1 WR as there is in the league.

Jamison Crowder (4-24-0/6) stuck in mud for speed.

Keelan Cole (2-38-00/3) and Denzel Mims (2-33-0/3) are their best options, but neither hardly play/see targets enough.

I want nothing to do with this offense except using Michael Carter (10-38-1, 3-20-0/3) in a pinch if I need bye week help or an emergency start for injury.

Wilson is barely throwing TD passes as it is…so, not much juice for these WRs anyway.

 -- Not for nothing, I know Kyle Pitts is the man and all…but have you noticed Hayden Hurst (4-40-1/5) has been involved a little bit? 4 catches in each of his last two games. Three 4 catch games so far this season playing about 50% of the snaps.

 -- I’ve been slamming Matt Ryan (33-45 for 342 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) all season for looking terrible, which he does to me…he’s a bottom 10 QB to my eye…but he’s caught some fire with the easier schedule = 8 TDs/0 INT and 275+ pass yards per game the last 3 weeks. Cord Patterson is really helping Ryan’s numbers.

The good times for Ryan should be ending ahead: MIA-CAR-NO the next 3 weeks.

 -- I’m still a believer in Zach Wilson (19-32 for 192 yards, 0 TDs/1 INT) but only for Dynasty…only as a #3-4 QB investment. He has almost no value now in the real world. He’s not getting any better in 2021 with this O-Line and these WRs. He may get a bit better but as for using him for FF for any reason…it’s gonna be awhile.

 -- The Jets defense got thumped early, but then bowed up and kept the Jets in the game…like they do every week. It’s an emerging, tough group…but not elite…and no offensive support.

Except in an obvious situation…you can’t trust them. Weeks 11-16 is interesting, however: MIA-HOU-PHI-NO-MIA-JAX.

Snap Counts of Interest:

50 = Mk Davis

46 = CPatt

03 = Gallman

54 = Pitts

43 = Hurst

34 = Lee Smith

29 = Carter

22 = Ty J

05 = Tevin C

45 = Corey Davis

34 = Crowder

31 = Keelan Cole

08 = Mims

06 = Berrios