- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Bills 26, Dolphins 11
I'd like to be able to say that the score of this game was closer than the actual result...but that would be the opposite of the truth. The truth is that the Dolphins came to play and gave the Bills all they could handle for three quarters. The dam finally broke in the late 3rd, early 4th and the Bills pulled away, but until then it was an absolute dogfight.
I walk away from this game highly impressed by Miami's defense. They were all over the Bills, pressuring Allen, defending passes, even stopping the run for the most part. There were only two things they struggled to contain a little bit. 1) Josh Allen running plays and 2) Cole Beasley in the slot. Once the Bills finally figured out that was how to beat Miami they went heavy with those two concepts and scored twice to give themselves an insurmountable lead.
The final Bills score came on a Tua interception as he was trying to make a play with just a couple minutes left. Without that turnover the Bills would not have covered the spread. I don't think that's any reflection on the Bills though. I think this was Miami trying to rise up.
Buffalo keeps right on rolling down the road to the #1 seed in the AFC. They are far and away the best team in that conference in my opinion and probably the best team in the league. We're halfway through the year and they are still the #1 scoring offense and #1 scoring defense. My one knock on them is that they've played a rather weak schedule of defenses so far and have fallen to two of the tougher teams they've played, Tennessee and Pittsburgh, two teams they should have beaten. Combine that with the Dolphins defense making their offense look mortal here, and I'm starting to worry just a little bit about how good this offense really is.
I'll say this about the offense though, Josh Allen is absolutely carrying it 100% and he would likely be my vote for MVP right now. That guy is unbelievable.
Miami certainly played a tough game here. They had been getting spanked on defense for weeks because they couldn't stop anyone on the ground, but they really played that well here. Maybe it's just a fluke, but if the defense continues playing like this every week they are going to fight their way into a few wins. The schedule is still rather tough though, so I'm not sure how many more wins they could get. I think they probably top out at 5 or 6 max.
Fantasy Notes
--I said Josh Allen (29-42 for 249 yards, 2 TD/0 INT, 8-55-1) was my vote for MVP and I meant it. He's back to leading the team in rushing which is exactly what you want for fantasy. Miami was all over the passing game and made him work for every inch here. Allen didn't blink and kept on firing into tight windows, willing his team down the field. I can't state enough how impressed I am watching him play QB. The jump he's made the last 3-4 years is beyond anything I thought was possible.
--Unfortunately though, with Allen's continued improvement as a QB, that is taking away from Stefon Diggs (5-40-0/7) in fantasy because Allen doesn't have to force it to Diggs every other play. I think Diggs will start to come on a little more soon, but there are still a lot of good pass defenses on the schedule, a lot of good CB's, and Diggs is proving to be mortal this year. I think you just have to hold with him and pray a turn comes.
--Cole Beasley (10-110-0/13) continues to be an up and down performer based on matchup. You want to play him in weeks where the outside cornerbacks are very good but the slot is weaker and where the Bills have to throw a lot to stay in the game.
--Emmanuel Sanders got completely shut out here, but I wouldn't panic on him. He's usually the #2 look behind Diggs and hasn't even been far off of Diggs's production. Sanders is the deep threat, so his average is going to be something like 3-4 catches for 50 yards and a shot at a TD but there will be lots of ups and downs. He had a rough matchup here with Byron Jones that's all.
--Tommy Sweeney (3-30-0/4) is no Dawson Knox replacement. He's your average TE, capable of catching passes thrown his way a couple times a game but doesn't provide much else.
--Somehow now Zach Moss (8-19-0, 6-39-0/7) has become the pass catching back over Devin Singletary. I don't like it or agree with it, as I haven't all year, but that's the reality now. He also gets the goal line touches, so he's Buffalo's version of James Conner, except Allen takes more short TD's than Kyler is right now.
--I'm growing to have a grudging respect for Tua Tagovailoa (21-39 for 205, 0 TD/1 INT, 4-10-1). I know, I know. He's not my favorite, but I have to admit he's getting better. The mistakes are becoming rarer and rarer and he just dices defenses up with all these short passes. Seems simple enough to stop, but nobody has really done it yet. Buffalo was in his face all day and not giving him much room to throw, but he handled it well, better than I've ever seen.
Regardless of his real world talents, he's definitely been working pretty well for fantasy, and I see no reason why that would change. He's played four full games this year, scored 15 and 16 points against the very good defenses of the Bills and Patriots, and scored 20+ against the Falcons and Jaguars. He's a good #2 guy, someone you can stream against weaker defenses.
--The top WR for Tua is still Jaylen Waddle (4-29-0/11). These two are slicing and dicing most weeks. The Bills defense was all over it however. I love buying Waddle as an undervalued WR2 but only in ppr.
--RC's best friend DeVante Parker (8-85-0/11) has been working pretty nicely this year as well, when he's not hurt. He's one of the only receivers to have received at least 7 targets in every game he's played and is averaging 12.74 ppg in ppr leagues. That's decent work.
*RC NOTE: With his production with Tua...he is becoming my new BFF. I knew he was good all along!! ;)
--One of my new favorite TE's Mike Gesicki (3-48-0/4) had a little bit of a down game. The Buffalo LB's were all over him because he lined up more as a traditional TE for some reason. He's basically been a huge WR every other game. Not sure what the game plan was for him, but I would expect him back out wide most weeks.
--I've said it all year and nothing has changed, Myles Gaskin (12-36-0, 3-19-0/4) is still the lead back here. That role just isn't worth much in Miami. They have a terrible offensive line and Gaskin just isn't athletic enough to make things happen on his own. He's probably due for a nice ppr pop game.
IDP Notes
--I've got to spotlight a guy I have a lot of appreciation for. Christian Wilkins (5 tackles, 2 tfl, 1 pd) is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in football. He's a DT so he tends to get overlooked because of guys like Donald and Chris Jones, but he's just a really solid football player, is constantly around the ball, gives 110% effort on every play, is smart and a true leader for Miami, impeccable character...he's the perfect team player.
He's got 38 tackles on the year (4.75/g) at defensive tackle. That's 2nd on his own team and 5 more than Donald. He gets consistent production on the defensive line if you need that for IDP.
Snap Counts of Interest
67 = Mike Gesicki
41 = Adam Shaheen
29 = Durham Smythe
65 = Jaylen Waddle
63 = DeVante Parker
40 = Myles Gaskin
16 = Salvon Ahmed
60 = Tommy Sweeney
4 = Reggie Gilliam
56 = Emmanuel Sanders
55 = Stefon Diggs
52 = Cole Beasley
47 = Zach Moss
25 = Devin Singletary
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Saints 36, Bucs 27
Just like I predicted before the game – the Saints would be forced to go to Trevor Siemian, and he would outduel Tom Brady, who would get the ball with nearly two-minutes remaining, down by just two, needing a field goal to win…and that he’d throw a bad pick-six to seal a Saints win.
We keep throwing around the Cardinals, Packers, Rams, Cowboys…and Bucs as the dominant NFC teams to debate on who might be the best – well, the Saints should be in that conversation. They’re getting their O-Line back healthy…one of the best in the league at full strength…and they have a good defense. Jameis Winston was holding them back, but no longer.
The Saints played toe-to-toe with a very sloppy Bucs team, a Bucs team that seems to wilt against any aggressive/physical foe. The Saints earned the win. They jump up to (5-2) and are right in the thick of the NFC South race. They are now (3-0) versus TOMpa Bay in the regular season going back to last year…they did lose to TOMpa in the playoffs. How fast we forget that the Saints won the division last year…over Tom.
The Saints are (5-2) and project to 10-12 wins now…we see them at 11 wins and possible NFC South champs.
The Bucs are (6-2) with an easier schedule to the finish. They should get to 12 wins and eek out the division over the Saints, but if TOMpa loses to the Saints again Week 15 hosting NO, then the board flips to the Saints for the NFC South.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Trevor Siemian (16-29 for 159 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) played totally fine football. He was comfortable in the pocket most drop backs. He wasn’t great but was plausible. He had his Siemian moments but mostly he lucked out of bad spots with penalties (to his benefit) or nice plays made by the receivers. He game managed this to victory. He played from ahead and didn’t blow it. He would/will blow it more times than not, over time, but in this one he held it together for the victory.
I think he looked good enough to warrant a start in Week 9…looked good enough to Sean Payton. I would not ASSUME Taysom Hill is getting the start here…not at all. Sean Payton is the better Kyle Shanahan – he thinks he can take any old QB and win. He’s (5-2) this season with Jameis starting…and just beat Tom Brady with Trevor Siemian, so can you blame him for thinking that?
Siemian played a Mike White type of game…screens and bubbles and solid short/medium throws when afforded time. That’s all you need to do in the NFL anymore.
-- Because the NFL, when lacking a downfield throwing ace, is just a screen and quick slant league – it’s a perfect set-up for Deonte Harris (1-22-0, 3-35-0/7). A true weapon with the ball in his hands. Maybe the closest thing to Tyreek Hill, from an agility and acceleration into warp speed guy that I see in the NFL.
He only plays 30-50% of the snaps in games, but when he’s in it’s for generating offense.
Week 4…led the team in targets (8) despite playing just 49% of the snaps.
Week 5…2 snaps played, one 72-yard TD, left hurt (hamstring)
Week 6…out with hamstring.
Week 7…out with hamstring.
Week 8…led the team in targets again, but just 3 catches…bit also a 22-yard jet sweep added in.
The most dangerous receiver the Saints have is Deonte with the ball in his hands. And he’s not just ‘fast guy’ doing fast guy things (screens, jet sweeps)…he is almost impossible to cover. He makes excellent cuts in his routes. He stop-starts on a dime. I think he’s secretly one of the 15-20 most dangerous players in the game. He has that Tyreek ability of just subtly running by people when it looks like there is no space/room to do so.
Injury is his constant issue. Talent is not.
Jameis Winston is a horrible QB-mind, and he was no good for Harris (or Callaway, or the TEs, or anyone but dump passes and occasional lucky bombs). Siemian would be his best QB – quick, traditional passes a la what Mike White did to Cincy last week. Taysom would be OK but Siemian better for him.
I think a star is waiting to be born with Harris, but probably when it happens…the next game he’ll tear is ACL and PCL and Achilles and pecs and break a femur and get COVID from the cart driver on his trip to the locker room.
-- Marquez Callaway (3-30-0/5) is the Saints best ‘traditional’ WR, and thus he has been a nobody with Jameis…and not much with Siemian, because Callaway works middle and deep, and Siemian is trying to dump off passes not read the field and make slick downfield throws.
Taysom Hill was great with/for Michael Thomas…and Callaway should be able to step in and do some of those same things…maybe…IF Taysom is the starting QB, and that’s 50-50 right now (as I type this).
-- People are dumping/selling cheaper Alvin Kamara (19-61-1, 3-15-0/4) on the news of a 1-2 punch…
#1) Mark Ingram (6-27-0, 2-25-0/2) being trade for has people spooked.
#2) Jameis gone is like Joe Montana being lost for the mainstream, so the sheep all think AK is doomed from the passing game with Taysom or Siemian.
GO BUY AK LOW! He is the Saints offense no matter who is at QB. Nothing changes, nothing to fear.
-- Speaking of contenders to the ‘he’s just like Tyreek’ fantasy world…rookie Jaelon Darden (3-11-0/3) gets a little more involved every week, in Antonio Brown’s absence.
Darden and Tom have a relationship, and I think Brady is trying to bring him along. Down the road, into 2022, as Antonio Brown is done…Darden is going to come into FF-play. Right now, he’s just getting his feet under him.
But, back to the Tyreek angle…if I was compiling a list of candidates to try and stretch into ‘next Tyreek’ realm (and no one is, and that’s not just a cute cliché), Darden would be on the short list. Darden and Deonte are two guys that are small and super-quick. Hill is a thicker, more stout version…so, the other guys pale in comparison, but in movement skills, Darden and Deonte are in the discussion at least.
-- Tyler Johnson (5-65-0/6) is a solid fill-in for Antonio Brown, but he’s not a game changer…he’s just competent, capable. He’s always going to be lower in the pecking order here. Now, if Godwin goes down and they push Tyler into that role…then I’m more FF-interested.
-- Gronk (0-0-0/1) rushed back from injury and got hurt again and is out. AB and Gronk are showing their age…Brady is not. Hopefully, for Gronk owners…the bye week allows Gronk to get back to 100% for the FF-stretch run.
Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = Godwin
58 = Evans
39 = Tyler J
09 = Darden
08 = Grayson
37 = Brate
28 = OJ Howard
06 = Gronk
37 = Fournette
13 = Gio
09 = RoJo
59 = Callaway
48 = Tre’Quan
33 = Ty M
24 = Deonte
51 = Kamara
22 = Ingram
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Seahawks 31, Jaguars 7
I thought this would be a relatively boring, low note rewatch/study – but it ended up being a bit more eye-opening than I expected. I was really just wanting to see how Jamal Agnew was used in this game. The Jags losing by 24 was not surprising…although I thought Jacksonville would beat Seattle, or at least cover the spread…I wasn’t surprised Jacksonville played poorly and lost. But rewatching this game this week, there was much more to it…things to learn about both teams.
Three headline takeaways:
1) Seattle isn’t very good, especially with Geno at the helm. And their O-Line is a disaster – the Jags had 7 TFLs and 3.0 sacks in this game. Seattle could not run the ball at all.
The score looked like a blowout, but this was pretty back-and-forth (bad) the 1st-half, and they needed miracle catches from their WRs to move the ball (and atrocious pass coverage by JAX) because they could not run the ball at all.
To some degree, this was a ‘lucky’ blowout by Seattle…given how bad Jacksonville is, and how much Seattle had to scrap and get lucky to get a big lead.
Obviously, things are better with Russell Wilson – but just know this a really bad team with Russell as the safety net from them not being as bad as the Jacksonville’s, etc. If Seattle gets to the playoffs, Russell Wilson should be league MVP unanimously.
After their bye, Seattle has at GB and then hosting ARI…so, they will then fall to (3-7) and have an easier schedule from there but likely they would finish with 7-8 wins (if Russ is back).
2) Jacksonville is THEE worst team in the NFL. Not Houston. Not Detroit. Not Chicago. Not even the Chiefs…it’s Jacksonville as the worst.
The thing is, they have a really nice offensive line…and that’s usually enough to get a team by for some wins/playing decent, but Trevor Lawrence is non-generational, their backfield is ‘meh’ (despite the OL advantage). Their defensive game plan and secondary is the worst. They play with no real energy or competence for any consistent time.
The biggest reason why the Jags are the worst team in football? See #3…
3) Urban Meyer is quite possibly the worst head coach to ever patrol the sidelines in NFL history. Apologies to such luminaries as Rich Kotite, Hue Jackson, and Steve Wilks (among many others).
You wanna talk ‘generational’ on Jaguar things? Meyer is a generationally awful head coach. Pointing to his stupidity of cheating on his wife in public…beyond the moral aspect, just the sheer stupidity to do such things in public…shows how dub he really is. However, it’s easy to point to that but it’s not where we should focus. Let’s just ignore that it ever happened for a moment – let’s look at his awfulness beyond that.
He’s made the worst roster moves and trades (value exchanges) in the league, by far, in 2021. His team and coaching staff hate him…and now the public and the fans do too. It’s come out that he doesn’t really coach anything, he just leaves things to his assistants. He’s useless…a highly paid figure who was hyped up by the media…a sucker’s bet by the Khan family, who should be embarrassed – but they constantly run the team into the ground, so shitty peanut butter has found moldy chocolate to come together for a hot garbage product with Urban and the Khan’s.
If you want to know how awful Urban Meyer is at coaching – watch this game. It’s a clinic on bad coaching. They should show this game (this season) for generations to come on what bad coaching looks like.
Urban Meyer goes through this (or any other) entire game barely interacting with anyone…no one comes near him or wants to have anything to do with him…it’s almost comical to watch. He is worse than the Coronavirus…he has a 10-foot separation around him at all times. He should just build a plexiglass structure with wheels on it to stand in and a little remote control option…or maybe like on a Segway, and he just leans to where he wants the 10’ by 10’ plexiglass booth to move towards and everyone gets out of his way. Perhaps, Urban should get that ridiculous Booger McFarland Monday Night Football crane and coach from there -- that way so he’s as far from human contact as possible.
But the real crime here…down 24-0, the Jags hurry up and go down the field for a score with 1:39 left. If the Jags could convert the 2-point attempt, they cut it to a two-score game and if they can get the onside kick, maybe this gets interesting. It’s not much of a chance, but it’s a chance. However, instead of going for two…Urban decides to kick the XP. Why? I have no idea. It doesn’t make sense on any level at all. No one in the world would kick the XP there…but Urban did. Nice message sent to the team.
So, if Urban was just wanting to end the game. If he was quitting – then why bother to do an onside kick next? But he did…and his half-hearted/defeated special teams quit because Urban already had, and Seattle took the onside kick back for an untouched TD.
The Detroit Lions are terrible…a corrupted O-Line and defense devastated by injury and poor personnel choices. But the Lions are always fighting. The Jags have some talent and a good/healthy O-Line…and with those advantages, they look utterly terrible and disinterested. That’s on the coach.
There is no way this gets any better. No way Urban earns the trust of the team back EVER, because he never had it to begin with and he won’t try/he’s incapable of it because he’s an insufferable, NFL-incompetent a-hole. And yet a billionaire owner is going to continue to support him and pay him more money next week than I will make in the next decade+.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Like I mentioned prior, I came to this to watch Jamal Agnew (6-38-1/12) – the guy I was pushing even harder last week.
What I saw…
Agnew is working as a slot WR, which is short routes in front of Trevor…which is all Trevor is good for, so this works – that’s why Agnew is suddenly the target leader the last few weeks.
Also, Agnew is the best offensive skill position player they have. The only one with juice, so they try to get him on tunnel screens and quick slants, etc. Agnew and Trevor just missed out on 2-3 more catches for 40+ yards, due to miscommunication…that should improve as they go.
The Jags are almost always going to be way down, so little dump passes and a high volume of passes against prevent defenses will help Agnew be FF-productive. He’s a WR2-3 in PPR.
-- Dan Arnold (8-68-0/10) had his best game as a Jag…probably his best game in the NFL. Arnold was running a bunch of simple short routes and Trevor is only good at throwing to that, so Arnold was a nice easy throw into the flat and let him try and scratch out a few extra yards after the catch.
Arnold has a hands issue (to me), but in this game he caught everything he reasonably could. A PPR TE1 potential for Arnold going forward.
-- Jaguars in big deficits = higher passing volume, and when Trevor Lawrence (32-54 for 238 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) has to throw a lot (or a little) it’s all short throws. If you assume Buffalo is going to blow the Jags’ doors off Week 9…then sudden emergency starter Carlos Hyde (4-32-0, 6-40-0/8) is likely to have a similar game as he had here – 8 targets, safety valve throws, Trevor trying to work safe in a deficit. Hyde has hope to be a PPR RB2 this week because of the game script.
-- Not much to mention about Seattle, because playing against Jacksonville is not reality, but two things…
1) I take back what I said about Rashaad Penny (7-7-0)…that he’s done because look at his terrible output the past few games. He looks fine…he looks good…it just looks like the worst O-Line in the NFL in the run game. It may be Geno exacerbating the issue, but whatever it is – it’s not good. Alex Collins (10-44-0) is scuffling around it too.
When Russ returns, maybe Collins is an RB2, and Penny has hope on a Collins injury. But with Geno at QB…forget it.
Jags DE Josh Allen (6 tackles, 2 sacks, 4 TFLs) is good but he was ‘lit’ by how bad this Seattle O-Line was.
2) Tyler Lockett (12-142-0/13) had a monster game because the Jags coverage was so disastrous. Urban Meyer is in love with rookie CB Tyson Campbell (4 tackles, 1 PD), but he sucks – if Geno Smith is working you…then you really do suck. They rotated Campbell on Lockett, and then as that was a nightmare, so they then put a slower safety on Lockett…and Lockett destroyed that too.
I didn’t like Campbell’s cover ability when scouting him for the 2021 NFL Draft…good body, nice athlete, crappy cover ability. The NFL people thought he was better at Georgia than Eric Stokes…and I passionately pleaded that such a scouting take was nonsense. I win.
Again, Urban Meyer is a disaster as a game manager, a personnel decision maker, and with his NFL Draft scouting eye.
Snap Counts of Interest:
69 = Marvin Jones
55 = Agnew
52 = Shenault
50 = Hyde
15 = Ogunbowale
08 = JRob
55 = Arnold
18 = Farrell
27 = Collins
17 = Homer
11 = Penny
44 = Everett
36 = Dissly
08 = Parkinson
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Cowboys 20, Vikings 16
I'm legitimately not sure how the Vikings lost this game. When I watched the game live I had the impression that the Cowboys were equal to or stronger than the Vikings, that they were the better team and just barely kept missing opportunities until the final minutes.
But after rewatching it I have the opposite impression. The Vikings were the better team here for the most part, and the Cowboys were quite lucky to come away with the win. Minnesota dropped at least two easy Cooper Rush INT's, constantly hurt themselves with dumb plays and penalties at bad times, gave up a 73 yard score to Cedrick Wilson after he beat his man and got a easy lane to the endzone, had a recovered fumble called back because of a penalty, and settled for too many field goals including a possible game-winner with 3 minutes left.
Now I say the Vikings were the better team and should have won, but that comes with a caveat, they were better than the Cowboys without Dak Prescott. The only reason they could compete is because Rush was at QB, and even then the Cowboys still needed just a little bit of luck to pull out the win. It's not like they won despite getting blown away on the field. The defense, in particular, acquitted themselves well.
This was a massive, massive win for Dallas. By getting to 6-1 here they basically just slammed the door shut on any chances of the Eagles or Giants catching them in the East. They will likely roll on to somewhere around 12 or 13 wins and a #2 or 3 seed in the NFC. As I mentioned in my Rams recap, I think they belong in the conversation for 2nd best NFC team along with the Bucs and Rams. To me the Cardinals are still the team to beat at full strength, but those three teams have the best chance at taking down the top dog.
Dallas has only lost to the Bucs so far and barely. Their only close wins were over the very solid Patriots and Chargers. Everyone else they've essentially blown out. Their offense is top 5 in the league, and the defense is middle of the pack but definitely not terrible and seems to be getting better as they go.
The Vikings needed this win to have much hope of catching the Packers in the North. That chance is probably gone now, BUT there might be hope if the Packers lose the next game or two with Rodgers out. They draw the Ravens and then the Chargers though, so it's not going to be easy. Minnesota isn't dead yet, but their division title hopes are fading. More than likely they'll have to settle for a 6 or 7 wildcard seed in the NFC.
Fantasy Notes
--How Cooper Rush (24-40 for 325, 2 TD/1 INT) had this day for fantasy I'm not sure. He wasn't terrible, per se, but he wasn't very good either. I counted at least two dropped INT's by Minnesota, and a good chunk of his yards (and the two TD's) came on the go-ahead drive and the broken play by Wilson. Rush is still a below average backup and not someone the Cowboys should be relying on if Dak gets hurt again.
--To go along with Rush's surprise stats, I was amazed to see Amari Cooper (8-122-1/13) with that stat line. It felt like CeeDee Lamb (6-112-0/8) had the better day to me while watching.
So what happens with Amari now that Dak is back? Hell if I know. Personally, I never felt like there was a ton to worry about. Dallas is running the ball really well with the two backs this year, and Schultz has become a new favorite for Dak, but to me it was just a matter of time for Amari to get his numbers. Now the trouble is I think those numbers equal a WR2 this year and nothing more. Unfortunately he's not the top dog. Lamb is. So it's Lamb that could be a back end WR1-1.5 and Amari will have to settle for a bit less.
It's perfectly fine to hold him and hope for the best, but it's not crazy to try and flip him for something better off this big game...Mike Williams perhaps? In fact, you could probably get Mike AND something else in exchange for Amari. Check with RC on that one, but I think he'll like it.
*RC NOTE: I do still like Mike Williams, but I am down for a spike back up for Amari with Dak as well. I’d rather have Williams, still, at this stage...he’s shown physical dominance this season.
--Cedrick Wilson (3-84-1/3, 1-1 for 35 yards) had a nice day as well, but it all came from the one long play. You can't remotely count on him at this point and Michael Gallup is coming back soon anyways.
--What happened to our juicy matchup for Kirk Cousins (23-35 for 184 yards, 1 TD/0 INT)? Well, turns out the Dallas secondary isn't so juicy anymore. They are getting better and better by the week. Kirk should be ok going forward, but looking at the schedule I'm starting to get a bit nervous for him. It's not a terrible schedule of pass defenses, but it's not particularly easy either, and Kirk tends to feast on easy matchups.
--Justin Jefferson (2-21-0/4) got banged up fairly early here after battling Trevon Diggs. He came back into the game early in the 3rd quarter but was clearly not 100%. We'll have to monitor his injury this week. I wouldn't say that Diggs shut him down exactly. It was a good fight, but Jefferson had him beat at least once for a possible long play, and Cousins overthrew him while wide open. The rest of the time Kirk mostly refused to even look in Diggs's direction. So long as Jefferson is healthy I think he's a terrific buy-low candidate, although his name still carries a large price tag. He's been good this year but has just missed out on several huge games.
--Look for Tyler Conklin (5-57-0/7) to have a huge game against the Ravens next week. He's really turning into a very good TE and is becoming a bigger part of the offense especially with Jefferson hurt, and the Ravens have been one of the worst teams against that position.
IDP Notes
--I heard this Micah Parsons (11 tackles) kid was pretty good...he's getting better by the week. He's pretty much a lock for DROY at this point. Hope you listened to Chris Bilello's advice early in the year!
--Harrison Smith had 6 tackles on opening day against the Bengals and has had 8 or 9 every single week since. He's as close to automatic as you can get for a DB.
Snap Counts of Interest
65 = Adam Thielen
47 = Justin Jefferson
38 = K J Osborn
54 = Tyler Conklin
17 = Luke Stocker
65 = CeeDee Lamb
63 = Amari Cooper
42 = Cedric Wilson
60 = Dalton Schultz
32 = Blake Jarwin
55 = Ezekiel Elliott
19 = Tony Pollard
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Patriots 27, Chargers 24
I went into this rewatch wondering what I was really going to see/uncover, but my bent/bias going in was – what’s wrong with the Chargers? Lost big to Baltimore Week 6, then a bye, come out of the bye and lose to New England. What gives?
Well, there’s a two-part answer…
#1) It’s a classic wrong-minded NFL conclusion based on my preconceived (false) reality. It’s not ‘What’s wrong with the Chargers’…which is a question that essentially states – how could the great Chargers lose to the lowly/inferior Patriots?
I’m looking at it wrong/too far on one side…
The Patriots are a good football team…a plausible offense and a really good, emerging very good defense. The Chargers played decently here, but the Patriots were just better, tougher, more energized…led by the defense.
#2) Something is off with the Chargers. They are playing very California cool/lazy, low energy…especially on offense.
Blame the Patriots…they brought pressure, they held time of possession 34/26, they didn’t let the Chargers get in any rhythm. LAC had more talent and played well on defense…just the Patriots were tougher and more energized.
The Chargers looked sloppy and low energy three weeks ago, and a bye week off didn’t cure it.
This current Chargers team isn’t winning the AFC West. I don’t know who would win the AFC West, but it isn’t the L.A. from this game or last game (v. BAL). The Chargers team from Weeks 2-5 was going to win the AFC West. Can the Chargers get that mojo back? We’ll see – the schedule is begging them to reel off 4 straight wins ahead (@PHI, MIN, PIT, @DEN), if they go (2-2) floundering around…then they got real issues.
We project the (4-3) Chargers to finish with 10-11 wins still, but it’s a fluid situation right now…a precarious one.
On the other hand, FYI…I think the Patriots are going to the playoffs (potentially). The almost-wins over Tampa and Dallas in recent weeks should not have been interpreted as a scrappy lacking team staying close – it was signs that this team is really good. It’s an OK team being well-coached into a ‘good’ team.
Bill Belichick rises again! If he’s not careful, that plucky young coach may just win a Coach of the Year award.
The entire league turns into a pass happy entity…so, then Belichick goes 1970s run game and defense and special teams in 2021. That’s ‘so Bill’…
We’ll see how this pans out. The Patriots (4-4) play a pivotal game (for both teams) this week at (4-4) Carolina…a similar-ish type team…RB-based with a good defense. The winner is probably a future wild card in their conference. The loser is going to fight for .500.
We project the Patriots to finish with 9-10 wins, and a wild card shot. Eight wins possible…10-11 wins a stretch goal. Nine wins the most likely outcome, with 10 wins very possible.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The two QBs here both struggled to be above a 50% Comp. Pct., in what was a defensive struggle holding down both QBs. Not surprising for Mac Jones (18-35 for 218 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) as a rookie struggling against a good LAC defense -- but kinda surprising for Justin Herbert (18-35 for 223 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs).
Is there a problem with Herbert in 2021? In his last two games, 3 TDs/3 INTs, both games under 57% Comp. Pct., and two losses. He’s the #9 QB in Fantasy Football right now…and that’s a disappointment. He flew into the top 5 for FF after Week 5…but has stumbled since then.
I didn’t see a huge problem with Herbert in this game. Everything looked mostly normal. Some misfires, but too many dropped passes…and too many pressures. Credit the NE defense because they got after him and to him…a season high 3 sacks on Herbert.
Something seems a bit off, in general, with this offense. Not a total breakdown, but Herbert’s accuracy has tanked in his last two games…albeit against good pass defenses, but that’s not like Herbert.
I’m confident enough, but not overly confident in what I see. I will feel better if he comes out and blows the doors off of the Eagles this week – as all the good QBs have this season. If he flops vs. Philly…then we officially have an issue.
-- Mac Jones played solid football, again…it’s just the Chargers have one of the best pass defenses in the league. Both teams in this game have top pass defenses, and both QBs scuffled.
-- The story of this game was really the two defenses…
I’ve been touting the Chargers for weeks, while they gave up 42 (CLE) and 34 (BAL) points in games…and people abandoned me on this pro-LAC defense scouting.
In this game…they held NE to 20 offensive points (the other 7 was off a pick-six), which goes with their usual flow in games this season – holding team at or under 20 offensive points in a game.
They are the #4 pass defense in the NFL (by yards per game).
They are 8th best in fewest TDs allowed (9) this season.
They held Mac Jones to just above 50% Comp. Pct. and allowed no TD passes.
Their Achilles heel has been against the run, and here they did allow 141 rush yards…but it was on 39 carries, just 3.6 ypc allowed. They were much better against the run here coming out of the bye week.
The Chargers defense is showing signs of good, but not great. Useful in good matchups…Week 9 vs. PHI might be a good one. Week 12 at DEN is promising. Week 14 v. NYG depends upon the Giants health. Week 16 at HOU and Week 17 v. DEN would be a great FF-way to end the season.
The Patriots have a much better, deeper defense with a real pass rush…a defense starting to come into it’s own, bolstered by the intense run game controlling time of possession. The made Brady and Herbert struggle this season. And when they get a weak opponent, they’ve done some damage – thumping the Jets twice, and really thwarting Houston but the Texans had some fluky big plays hit and covered a decent effort over.
We’ll see how really good (or not) the Pats defense is the next four weeks: @CAR, CLE, @ATL, TEN are all either favorable or neutral matchups…no bad matchups.
-- Josh Kelley was set to inactive for this game, so I want to be done with him and looking for other #2 RB gambles. Justin Jackson (3-79-0) reeled off a 75-yard run in this one but did little otherwise and got hurt…AGAIN.
I have no idea who the handcuff for Austin Ekeler is. I don’t think the Chargers know either.
-- Mike Williams (2-19-0/5) got shut down this game. I watched a lot of this game from his perspective to try and get a feel for what happened. He looked fine. He is getting doubled – teams do recognize he’s the WR to stop, not Keenan Allen (6-77-1/11).
Williams has been hurt in recent weeks, but I don’t think it’s an injury issue – I am hoping it was injury before (Weeks 5-6), and just a good game plan here, and we can resume that Big Mike great start to the season going forward now. If Herbert and Williams struggle against Philly, then it’s time to worry.
The Pats have shut down Amari, Cooks, and Godwin in recent weeks…and now Williams. It might just be the Patriots effect here.
The Eagles seem like they have a good pass defense, statistically but it’s a massive ‘tale of two cities’…
PHI defense versus = ATL, SF, CAR, DET = 11.8 ppg allowed + (3-1 record)
PHI defense versus = DAL, KC, TB, LV = 36.0 ppg allowed + (0-4) record
Quite a split.
12 TDs/3 INTs in those losses to good teams, big scores.
I think you know which bucket LAC should go in…
-- Since Week 4, Kyle Dugger (6 tackles) is the #8 DB PPG scorer in IDP.
Matt Judon (5 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 TFL) made life miserable for Herbert in this game. He’s #3 among classified linebackers in the NFL in sacks this season with 8.0 sacks…a half a sack away from #1 (TJ Watt, Landry). #4 in sacks among all defenders (Garrett #1 with 10.5).
Snap Counts of Interest:
33 = J Cook
25 = Parham
11 = McKitty
45 = Ekeler
08 = Roundtree
07 = J Jax
41 = Dam Harris
25 = Bolden
12 = Stevenson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Titans 34, Colts 31 OT
A big win fir the Titans, but then the giant casualty from this game as well – the loss of the 2021 league MVP (in my book), Derrick Henry. Had the Colts won this game, and Tennessee still lost Henry – we’d all be talking about the Colts as the odds-on favorite to win the AFC South from here, but the Titans got the W, so they take a 3-game lead in the division.
I mean, I could try and talk about this game play/action in detail, but it was really two teams led by top NFL running backs trying to out-do each other with mediocre defenses and mediocre QB play, and the one team (the Colts) having the worse QB and defense among them lost because of their unclutch QB making inexplicable throws for turnovers in key spots.
Really, as I watched this back, the Colts were lucky to be in this…if it wasn’t for Michael Pittman making miracle catches and Henry being hindered (now we know why), the Titans would have cruised to victory. The Titans spotted the Colts a 14-0 lead due to bad, unlucky play early, and they staved off a potential quick 21-0 deficit with a defensive stand, and then Tennessee just marched back in it and won it – the better team won, for sure.
Tennessee is now (6-2), but they go from ‘Is this is the best team in the AFC?’ to ‘Can Tennessee hold on to get to the playoffs and get Henry back?’ The schedule says they will win 10-11 games regardless of the Henry injury, because of any easy schedule.
Indy is now (3-5) with not as easy a schedule ahead. We see them winning their next two (maybe) to get to (5-5), and putting pressure on the Titans, but then finishing with 9 wins and fighting for a wild card.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Everything Fantasy from this game revolves around Derrick Henry (28-68-0), so let’s go through his injury and all the contenders to his throne of touches.
Henry broke a bone on the pinky toe side of his foot (a Jones fracture) and it’s in a somewhat precarious position in the foot and what it’s connected to…so, he will need all of the minimum 8-weeks of recovery, and then probably 1-2 weeks of rehab to get back into playing shape – which is just in time for the playoffs.
There’s almost 0% chance he makes a way faster, miracle recovery and gets back like Week 14-15. It’s not totally impossible but with this injury you cannot afford to risk a setback/rebreak…and if the schedule will allow Tennessee to get to the playoffs anyway, there’s no need to rush him back and risk not having him for the playoffs. Tennessee can win it all with a healthy Derrick Henry, so they don’t care if they’re a wild card…they just need Henry healthy.
So, who is going to pick up the slack here in the backfield? My hierarchy of options…
1) Jeremy McNichols
JMN entered the league as a 214-pound back who could run in the 4.4s with sub-7.00 three-cone…and a guy who was a TD machine at Boise State. He projected as a legit NFL RB prospect with nice size and movement, and college production…and he was a 5th-round pick in 2017.
Things didn't go as planned once he hit the NFL. He was deemed immature and football-dumb and was cut his rookie season by Tampa Bay. The 49ers quickly scooped him up and he got to the active roster for a couple of games/touches. The 49ers then cut him before the 2018 season 53-man roster time.
The Colts immediately signed him Sept. 2018 and he was up and off the roster for a few weeks, played some snaps in a game and was cut. Soon after, Denver signed him to their practice squad in Oct. 2018. In Dec. 2018, the Titans poached him off the Broncos practice squad – a mix of desperation and some newfound respect, at least. He never played a snap for the Titans in 2018.
In 2019, McNichols was cut again before the 53-man roster was announced by the Titans. A few months later, the Bears added him to the practice squad, then cut him a month after. Jacksonville then added him a few weeks later…then cut him in May 2020.
August 2020, Tennessee brought him in for a tryout with and he was signed…then cut…then signed back and it’s been a roller coaster for him in Tennessee, but he’s been fully embraced by the Titans since Week 1 of 2020 through to today on their main roster playing snaps in all games.
McNichols has never been a highly sought after ‘answer’ by Tennessee, he’s just always hung around and been ‘available’ and has ingratiated his way with Mike Vrabel enough to stick around – they’ve tried to move away from him with Darrynton Evans, but Evans has failed to live up to the hype (and is on IR the rest of the season). McNichols has carved out a role as ‘pass catcher’ in the hurry up offense.
Watching all McNichols’ plays from 2021 (video below), I see a capable enough guy in a pinch: He’s in great shape, really leaned his muscle (down to 205 from 215 as a rookie)…he's a tough runner willing to smash into would-be tacklers. He’s fast enough, and average in agility/cut-ability. He’s a very reliable pass catcher, an ace in the screen game (he caught 70.6% of his passes last season, and 77.8% this season to date).
I look at this sudden McNichols situation as – if Myles Gaskin can be competent, then McNichols with a similar (or better, I think) body/athleticism can work in a pinch as well. His ceiling is Myles Gaskin…10-15 carries, occasional TD, 3-5 catches a game but sometimes 7+ catches. His floor is = random pass catcher and 1-3 carries a game.
Tennessee will likely lean on Ryan Tannehill more and move away from an interior run game…so, McNichols will likely be (at a minimum) peak James White output…a really nice PPR back for Fantasy.
I’m sure Adrian Peterson or D’Onta Foreman will take short yardage and goal line touches away, but McNichols getting a lot of work between the 20s. McNichols will be a solid RB2 in PPR…more RB3 in non-PPR.
Here’s all his work this season, every touch:
Weeks 1-4: https://youtu.be/tw5JItF7CU0
Weeks 5-8: https://youtu.be/VrgTFY53NT0
2) Adrian Peterson
Peterson was still grinding at age 35 last season for Detroit…604 rush yards, 3.9 ypc, 7 rush TDs. He is a veteran runner and still seems to have the passion. You can never write him off, but this Tennessee O-Line isn’t great with Derrick Henry gone, so AP will likely be a 10 +/- carry a game split with McNichols right away.
An RB3 for PPR, a possible RB2 for non-PPR with a TD surge…maybe.
What we don’t know is…AP’s legs could be fully out-of-juice and he fails fast, and the Titans have to go elsewhere.
3) D’Onta Foreman
If the Titans do fail fast with AP, then Foreman has a chance to come in to play that same role – the big bruiser/Henry-a-like. He’s 6’1/235+ and was taking work/carries over Jeremy McNichols last season for a stretch.
Foreman has all the size and talent of an NFL lead back…good hands for his size too, but he’s never really been able to put it all together. He has history with this coaching staff, and now he’s back with a shot if the door opens up.
Foreman is like if Ronald Jones could catch passes… https://youtu.be/IIjQKhFeUXA
The one guy who could wake up out of this and become a star (of the moment) out of nowhere…is Foreman.
4) Khari Blasingame
Was a big tailback in college and has surprising athleticism for his 240+ pound size. He was undrafted into the league, but then pushed to bulk up to be a fullback and that’s what he’s been in the NFL. But he could take a few power carries if it was needed…but likely AP for sure first chance, and then Foreman most likely are ahead of Blasingame for touches here.
You wouldn’t hate this action: https://youtu.be/1anFw3sMDdQ
5) Dontrell Hilliard
Isn’t a bad little player but is just a warm body behind McNichols in case JMN goes down.
-- Let’s see how good Ryan Tannehill (23-33 for 265 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs, 2-26-0) really is now…without the Derrick Henry crutch to lean on.
The only time Tannehill has been without Henry was Week 16 of 2019 season, a key game for Tennessee vs. a very good New Orleans team…and Tannehill threw for 272 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, rushed for 8 yards as Dion Lewis ran the ball 15 times and Dalyn Dawkins ran it 9 times…if that gives you an idea of where Vrabel might go without Henry, at least at first – that being OK with smaller scat backs taking a workload. Only this time, it’s many games without Henry to deal with. So, we might be able to predict Week 9 pretty well with McNichols having to take a lot of touches…but who knows about Week 13-14-15-16 etc.
I’m interested to see how Tannehill does, but I think it will be pretty good…he’s a pretty savvy QB and if Mike White and Cooper Rush are crushing it – Tannehill can outdo them.
-- Marlon Mack (DNP) was thought to be traded by the deadline…but trades don’t usually happen in the NFL. So, he’s ‘stuck’ in Indy.
Before you move on from him, just note… If Jonathan Taylor got hurt like Derrick Henry/gone for the year hurt…then Marlon Mack would be the best waiver wire RB pickup of the last several weeks – the lead guy behind a good run game O-Line.
He’s worth that last roster spot gamble that random RB injury hits Indy.
-- Michael Pittman (10-86-2/15) has become a star right before our eyes…a legit WR1 for FF. It’s literally all Carson Wentz looks for -- and even double and triple covered Pittman makes plays. I hope you jumped on this a few weeks ago when we rang the alarm before he really fully popped, but if not…buy on any weakness…i.e. not this week after a 2 TD event.
Just know this isn’t just good WR in a good spot so FF numbers happen…this guy is going elite action/ability. A star is born.
-- I thought Mo Alie Cox (0-0-0/4) was going to be a TD guy last week…but he didn’t even get a catch. Still 4 TDs in his last five games. He’s gonna be an 8-10 TD guy with low targeting at TE this season. Use in good matchups as needed.
-- The Tennessee Titans-DST is trying to peek through to becoming more plausible. They have a lot of young talent but dealing with injuries and inexperience, but I see some goodness trying to break through. We’re not there yet but be careful getting too excited when you see your opposing WR matched up with them and your FF App declares it a great matchup. It might not be so now. Remember, they held the Chiefs to 3 points two weeks ago.
Snap Counts of Interest:
59 = J Taylor
25 = Hines
50 = Doyle
39 = Alie-Cox
10 = Granson
54 = Henry
17 = McNichols
35 = Pruitt
20 = Firkser
67 = AJ Brown
48 = Marcus Johnson
31 = Rogers
23 = Westbrook-Ikhine
05 = J Reynolds
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Rams 38, Texans 22
Don't be fooled by the final score being only 16 points. This was as one-sided a beatdown as I've seen this year. The Rams were up 38-0 with 8 minutes left before the Texans scored 22 in a flurry. The first score was a nice drive capped off by a Burkhead TD. Then they got the ball back quickly and hit Brandin Cooks for a 45 yard score. After that they recovered an onside kick and found Brevin Jordan for the final TD.
I'm not sure what the point was of all that activity because there was clearly not enough time to win the game, but the stupidity of NFL coaches knows no bounds. You think they were building morale by scoring garbage time points on a team that doesn't care? Good luck with that. Probably should have thought of morale before you pissed off your star QB so badly that he refused to play for you any longer. I digress.
It's impossible in these situations to take any larger conclusions away. The Texans are not exactly a great measuring stick to find out just how good the Rams might be. LA has been beating down nearly everyone they've played, but when you look at who they've beaten it's not exactly an impressive list outside of whipping the Bucs one week.
I would have said we would find out more about them this upcoming week, but Derrick Henry is suddenly gone from the Titans which completely changes the dynamic.
My best guess is that the Rams are lumped in a group with the Cowboys and Bucs for next best team in the NFC behind the Cardinals. All three have incredible offenses averaging north of 30 points per game, and all three have decent defenses. The Rams seem to have maybe a little bit better defense than the other two but also a slightly worse offense to balance it out. I don't include the Packers in this conversation yet because I think their offense is much worse than the other three (24 ppg which is a full TD worse than the others).
But even though I think the Rams are the 2nd best team in their own division, the Cardinals just took a hit with a Kyler Murray injury. We still don't know the extent of it, but my best guess is he needs a week or two to fully heal. That could be just enough of a crack for the Rams to sneak the division from them. This is going to be a tight race, and the Rams almost certainly have to win the rematch game in December to have a chance. But the stakes are huge as the winner probably gets the 1st or 2nd seed while the loser will be 5th. That makes a huge difference in their Superbowl chances.
Fantasy Notes
--Ok I have to admit something. I had Matt Stafford (21-32 for 305 yards, 3 TD/0 INT) ranked as the 5th best QB on my board for fantasy this year because I figured McVay would set out to prove himself right by throwing the ball all over the lot, and that's been 100% true. It's also why I had Cooper Kupp (7-115-1/9) as my 5th best WR and drafted him on all my teams.
BUT I did not think that Stafford would actually be a great real life QB for this team and propel the Rams to a lot of wins. My admission? He's really, really good. This offense is a joy to watch. They are functioning at an incredible level. RC keeps complaining every week about how Kupp is never covered...well that's because you can't cover him. There are too many threats to be able to double him all the time and the routes he's running chef's kiss*.
There were several times in this game where Stafford threw the ball and Kupp still had his back turned to the line of scrimmage. He would make a move, turn, and the ball was right there in his hands. You can't cover it. There's simply no way, not when Stafford throws it that early. It's the exact same thing that Rodgers does with Davante, and it's the same thing Peyton did with Harrison. This connection is on another level and won't be slowed. The best thing defensive coordinators could try is to jam Kupp at the line, but there are ways to beat that too.
Now this begs the question: was Goff actually the problem? And my answer is...at least partially. Goff definitely doesn't have the arm strength that Stafford can threaten the field with. That lets Stafford operate with more space. But we've seen Goff run high level progressions and route concepts before. He's also been pretty darn good in Detroit despite a horrendous surrounding cast. He didn't just forget how to play football over his last two years in Detroit.
That makes me think that McVay was at least a little to blame for Goff's decline. I think he got frustrated with some things and his confidence in Goff began to decline. As his confidence left, he started trying to micromanage Goff more and more which led to more problems. It's the same thing we saw happen with Trubisky in Chicago and is currently happening to Hurts in Philadelphia. Coaches can and do unintentionally destroy some of these QB's by how they manage them.
It also means that the Lions were indeed wasting a lot of Stafford's ability all these years. Now I'm not saying that Stafford should be included in the elite group with Rodgers, Brady, Russell, and Mahomes (who I'm starting to have some questions about) because it seems like he can't overcome subpar surroundings. He needs a talented offense around him, and he needs a coach that knows how to put all the pieces together. But he's certainly very good, and this offense is firing on all cylinders now.
--Because the passing game is functioning so well, it's opening up things for Darrell Henderson (14-90-1) in the run game. He's played 7 games this year and is averaging 15.7 carries, 72.4 yards, 1 TD, 2.3 catches, and 20 yards yards receiving per game (17.5 ppg...the 11th best ppr RB on the year).
--Kupp is on a whole other level, but after him the receivers are a mixed bag. Robert Woods (3-35-1/9, 3-22-1) had another good fantasy day that was saved by his 2 TD's, but he doesn't look like he's clicking with Stafford yet. The connection isn't smooth. Everything else is functioning so well that I think Woods will ultimately finish as a lower WR2 just by circumstance.
--The guy that looks more important to the offense to me is Van Jefferson (3-88-0/6). It's not going to work as well for fantasy as Woods will, but he's more important to the Rams offense. Jefferson is the deep threat and his speed is helping to open everything up because teams know that Stafford can hit him deep at any time (like he did in this game). Coordinators live in fear of getting beat deep so they constantly leave two safeties way back, and of course Kupp just chews that up all day long.
--Another guy got involved here that was a bit of a surprise to see. Rookie Ben Skowronek (3-30-0/3) was in late and taking some passes for decent gains. He's a big guy at 6'3” 220 lbs and moves fairly well for his size. I don't think he's fast enough to really succeed as a WR long term, but if he could somehow add some weight and convert to TE we might have something. Trouble is RC and I aren't sure his frame can handle any more weight. He might be stuck in that tweener WR/TE range and not work out at either position.
--Another week, another bad loss, yet another not bad performance from Davis Mills (29-38 for 310, 2 TD/1 INT). He was put in a horrible situation this year and has responded splendidly. I think I'd rather have him than Mac Jones at this point. He'll be replaced by Tyrod Taylor as soon as he's healthy, but Mills might actually be a decent QB for this team the next 2-3 years if they can rebuild.
--The Houston backfield is tough to figure out this week. They got blown out so quickly that running was all but impossible. My take on it is this: I think David Johnson is the starter and will split 60-40 or so with Phillip Lindsay. Rex Burkhead will be the third back in and probably vulture some TD's (which there won't be much of anyways) and some receiving work, and Scottie Phillips is a distant fourth.
I know they all took similar carries here, but Johnson and Lindsay were pulled from the game once it got out of hand, and Burkhead and Phillips took the remaining touches. Houston will be down nearly every week but probably not getting blown out this badly. DJ, in particular, could be a really sneaky DFS play against a bad Miami run defense this week.
--The Houston passing game is still all Brandin Cooks (6-83-1/6) and it's working for ppr. Ride it if you have it. Nico Collins (4-55-0/4) has developed into the #2 for now. I don't see anything magical emerging from him yet.
--Rookie TE Brevin Jordan (3-41-1/4) made his debut and looked ok in garbage time, nothing special. I'd rather have either of the other two Houston TE's over him as a talent. His TD was the last of the game, and he was left wide open for an easy pitch and catch. He's still the backup to Jordan Akins for now.
IDP Notes
--Rookie Ernest Jones (9 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 1 tfl, 1 pd) got his first full-time start of the year and responded with a nice IDP performance. I didn't see too much after watching him though. Because the Rams got up so early, Houston went into pass-only mode and Jones was able to drift around in coverage and come up for easy tackles. He honestly looked a little lost at times. He moves around well enough. Don't think he's all that different from the guy he replaced, Kenny Young.
--Of course the biggest IDP news here was the trade for Von Miller. It certainly sounds scary on paper. Miller and Aaron Donald attacking the line together with Jalen Ramsey patrolling behind them. That's some serious firepower.
I actually like this move for the Rams. They haven't used their draft picks well anyways and weren't likely to find a Von Miller in the 2nd or 3rd rounds of the draft. They have a Superbowl window right now. Their one big weakness on defense was getting pressure from someone other than Donald, and they fixed that here. Who cares about the salary cap? They'll figure that out later.
Snap Counts of Interest
58 = Cooper Kupp
58 = Robert Woods
56 = Van Jefferson
20 = Ben Skowronek
41 = Darrell Henderson
20 = Sony Michel
54 = Brandin Cooks
39 = Danny Amendola
39 = Nico Collins
25 = Chris Conley
30 = Rex Burkhead
15 = Scottie Phillips
11 = David Johnson
8 = Phillip Lindsay
39 = Jordan Akins
15 = Brevin Jordan
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Eagles 44, Lions 6
I’m pretty sure that ‘no explanation’ is required for this one… The Lions had the first chance to score in the game, missed their field goal, and then watched Philly go 41 straight points before Detroit would score in garbage time in an eventual 44-6 loss.
The players love Dan Campbell!! The fans love Dan Campbell!! The fans must be loving him from afar, because they weren’t at a half+ empty Lions home game…some of them in attendance wearing bags over their heads to show how much they love Campbell. You can give all the emotional press conferences you want, but without wins…eventually, the fans…and the players, kinda give up. I’m sure Detroit will win a game somehow this season, but probably only 1-2.
The Lions have been jipped out of a few wins by the football gods this season, but now the whole Campbell thing has jumped the shark and exposed the fact that they have not a lot of talent on the roster, their problems turbocharged by an injury-riddled O-Line (their strength turned weakness).
By beating the sad Lions, the Eagles are now fixed (according to the fans and media). We put away the ‘bench Jalen Hurts’ and ‘Sirianni is one and done’ talk away until their next loss…this week. The Eagles are now (3-5), and if they can get by the Chargers this week, then the schedule flips in their favor ahead – and they can make a wild card run. They will likely flounder the opportunity and finish with 6-7 wins in the end.
My main reason to get to study this game was to get a feel for this Eagles run game, post-Miles Sanders. So, we’ll start there…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Boston Scott (12-60-2, 0-0-0/1) was the definitive #1 back here…started right out of the gates, played every play the entire 1st-quarter. He’s the back to own for the time Sanders is out, and then he’ll be the 80/20 20% sidekick with Sanders after that.
Boston Scott is really good…the best back on the Eagles roster, the East Coast Austin Ekeler. And since the Eagles are playing LAC this week, you can compare and contrast – but more importantly the Chargers have the worst run defense in the world right now, so this should be a hot game for Scott.
Jordan Howard (12-57-2, 0-0-0/1) was the 2nd back in…and he was his usual hammering, smart running self. He will be the #2 again this week facing LAC. I suspect he’ll see +/- 10 carries against LAC…with a shot at a TD.
When Sanders returns, Howard goes back to being a nobody…possibly cut and claimed by another before the Eagles can stuff him back on the practice squad.
Kenneth Gainwell (13-27-0) just lost all his credibility/value in Fantasy…expected to be ‘the guy’ off the Sanders injury and ran as the #3 back…and then only in mop up time. RIP Kenneth Gainwell, for now. Enjoy returning kicks and not playing on offense when Sanders returns.
-- Jalen Hurts (9-14 for 103 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 7-71-0) staved off more ‘benching’ talk with a ‘big’ win over Detroit this week. Another loss will open the ‘benching’ talk back up…two losses in a row might force the change to happen. The schedule from here is pretty favorable (especially Week 13 on), so a fall might not come…unless they lose two/three-in-a-row somewhere in Wks 9-12 with LAC, at DEN, NO, at NYG.
Hurts had a bad FF game result here, but note he was sniffing 2-3 rushing TDs like usual…but he fell just short and set up easy TD runs for Scott and Howard.
-- Just a note for nothing…
Jared Goff (25-34 for 222 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) is taking a lot of heat for the Detroit losses, as QBs tend to have happen, but just note – he is playing about as well as you could expect under the circumstances.
An injury ravaged O-Line, no time to throw most plays, and the worst WR group in the NFL. What’s he supposed to do? He is fighting and making some good throws under vast pressure on most drop backs.
-- We got to see some late-game work from two young Detroit RBs…
Godwin Igwebuike (3-18-0, 3-40-0/3) is a converted SAF to RB this offseason, and he continues to progress from his solid preseason showing. He’s no threat to healthy Jamaal Williams, but he’d work in a pinch if Jamaal and Swift went down. He’s like a raw Damien Harris wannabe.
Rookie Jermar Jefferson (2-6-1, 4-23-0/4) looked capable as well in his first ‘real’ action. He’d probably see more of the rushing work or split it with Igwebuike if both Jamaal-Swift went down. He is like a slower version of Dalvin Cook.
-- Kalif Raymond (0-0-0/1) is the #1 WR on this team…and got all of one target in this game? He was the only WR the Eagles cared about, and it was over before it got started. Raymond is a WR3 flyer on volume hopes, but every 2-3 weeks has total dud games.
-- Since the Zach Ertz trade…
4.5 rec. (6.0 targets), 71.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game = Goedert
3.0 rec. (6.0 targets), 38.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game = DeVonta Smith
Smith has not scored a TD since Week and has been under 33 yards in a game in four of his last 7 games…with the no TDs.
-- Only one Eagles defender played more than 75% of the defensive snaps…it was SAF Marcus Epps (9 tackles, 1 PD),
Epps has started the past two games and has averaged 10.0 tackles, 0.5 PDs while playing 100% of the snaps.
-- The Eagles-DST schedule Week 10 on, in terms of starting QB and NFL rank in NFL PPG...
Week 11 = Taysom/Siemian (#10)
Week 12 = Dan Jones (#27)
Week 13 = Z Wilson (#32)
Week 14 = BYE
Week 15 = Heinicke (#21)
Week 16 = Dan Jones (#27)
Week 17 = Heinicke (#21)
It's a decent Eagles-DST and if they stay in the playoff race, this is quite a great schedule stretch.
Snap Counts of Interest:
49 = Raymond
45 = St. Brown
45 = Trinity Benson…and not one target
16 = Hodge
44 = Swift
11 = Igwebuike
11 = J Jefferson
44 = DeV Smith
32 = Ward
12 = Reagor
04 = Arcega-Whiteside
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Chiefs 20, Giants 17
Well, if you were hoping to tune into MNF to see the Chiefs offense get back on track and delight your senses and/or give you confidence in them going forward – then you were left lacking in this game. Not only lacking, but probably you’re more worried now than you were going into it.
Credit the Giants, my new favorite ‘team of the future’…they have a very good defense and defensive coordinator. But also credit the Chiefs – they came into this game looking the worse they ever have in the Mahomes era, and they brought those past few games’ struggles with them to this game. If Daniel Jones wasn’t such a terrible QB in crunch time, prime time, money time…the Giants might have won this. If the Giants didn’t have half their receivers out with injury, they might have won this. If Mike White was at QB for NYG, they might have won this.
KC jumped on the Giants on the first drive but ended up getting a pick in the end zone to end the drive. KC then picked Daniel Jones right after, which allowed KC a short field to go in and score to take a 7-0 lead -- but then KC struggled from there as the Giants answered every punch with a punch back. It was a quality loss for NYG…but a ‘loss’, nonetheless. With the semi-shocking Dallas win and this tough loss, the division title is off the table for the (2-6) Giants…four games out of first in the NFC East. They are only two games out of the last wild card spot (CAR) and are set to get all their weapons back the next two weeks – so, as desperate as it feels, they are a win away from only being a game out (if CAR loses Week 9). There’s a path to nine wins here, but it all depends on getting Barkley back, and Golladay and Andrew Thomas. A must-win Week 9 hosting Las Vegas…a winnable game.
The Chiefs are now (4-4) and back in the AFC West race. Week 10 at Las Vegas is going to be huge for the AFC West…and I don’t know if KC will be a favorite in that or not, so buckle up. KC could very easily lose it’s next three games and freefall out of the playoffs (GB, at LV, DAL the next three games).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First off, I know everyone wants to know -- Who the H is Derrick Gore (11-48-1, 0-0-0/0)?
When I first saw him get a touch in this game, I thought (like many) it was Frank Gore…it didn’t compute otherwise. I know every player…but Derrick Gore, I did not know or scout or care about and our computer scouting models weren’t interested in him in college either.
Gore started out in the JUCO ranks but then made it to Alabama as a walk on. He was a little used for the Crimson Tide but did get 9 carries in two seasons/9 games at Alabama 2015-2016. He then transferred to Louisiana-Monroe and was the main back in 2017 and 2018, but had low output in a running QB-offense where Gore barely led the team in rushing with 585 yards in 12 games, and just 3.6 ypc in 2017 and then again in 2018 with 662 yards in 12 games, and a better 5.1 ypc and 6 TDs.
He had an unimpressive round of Pro Day numbers as well…
5’9”/206
4.63 40-time, 1.64 10-yard
7.14 three-cone, 4.32 shuttle
23 bench reps, 34” vertical, 9’6” broad
Gore went undrafted and worked with the Chargers on their practice squad before winding up on KC’s practice squad. He was elevated to the main roster a few weeks ago and Week 8 MNF was his first time to shine, and he made the most of it – rushing for a TD and looking like a solid NFL RB.
Gore is like a smaller D’Ernest Johnson…grinder, below-average athlete on paper, but plays faster and has a nice stop-start ability to make people miss/change directions. Just a randomly capable RB.
He split time with Darrel Williams (13-49-0, 6-61-0/6) but was the lesser of the two in snaps (by a lot). When Clyde Edwards-Helaire returns, Gore will fall to a #3 back…possibly getting Jerick McKinnon cut to make room, but it may be Gore back to the practice squad.
I know Gore scored a TD on cable television, so the media is going to fall in love like they did with D’Ernest, but his only value right now is if CEH stays out and Williams goes down next week, and Gore has to take over for a week. When everyone is healthy and accounted for, Gore is the #3-4 back here. Nice little grinder, but limited upside and a blocked path to major touches. I wish it weren’t the case, but it is. He’s the new Charcandrick West – if everyone else in the KC backfield gets hurt, then call me.
-- I needed Kadarius Toney (4-26-0/5, 1-1 passing for 19 yds) to have a game last night to steal some extra FF wins. I didn’t get it.
The Giants took the field and…and…no Toney on the opening snap…or the next one…or the next one…not in for the entire (quick) first series. Not in on the 2nd series. At that point, I knew I was toast in Toney-need spots. I didn’t think he should be pushed back so fast given his ankle, his youth, and Dallas winning the night before. OK, it was stupid for me trying to play Toney on MNF just because rumor was -- he was going to play…and now he’s not.
…and then he’s in for a play on the 3rd-series as a decoy.
WTF?
…and then he’s out.
…and then he comes back in for a trick play pass?
…and then he’s out.
If he’s so hurt, why is he playing now? Maybe just to be a decoy because he had not run a pass pattern the whole 1st-quarter he was in for a handful of plays.
Then, in the 2nd-quarter…he runs a real pass route. If he is good enough to run routes…why is he in the game only every 3-4 plays? John Ross and Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard were doing nothing but sucking…in this crucial game, if Toney can go…why isn’t he going?
Then, Dante Pettis got hurt and suddenly I see Toney returning punts? WTF? I thought this guy was too hurt to play?
At that point I realized… Toney wasn’t being managed for his ankle. He was just ‘not a starter’ for Joe Judge. I mean, of all the things in the world…season on the line…you’re in a battle with a dangerous KC team at their place on a Monday night, with your offense flailing away -- and you have access to your best player/weapon and you don’t use him for all you got? I’d buy they wanted to be smart with him…until they threw his ass out there to return a punt, for which he got hit at his feet/ankle (coincidentally?) in a way that I thought he was going to be done…but he just got up and went to the sidelines, because he’s not a starter…gotta get that John Ross train moving, I guess.
Then Toney started catching passes and being doubled over by a safety – because Kansas City knows who the Giants’ best player is, but the Giants coaching staff does not.
Toney made a few plays in this game, but you could see he was not 100% but more like a fine 80-90%. He helps the offense…then I see him holding his wrist in pain and is taken back to the locker room in the 4th-quarter. I’m thinking…I’m done for getting Toney FF points.
Then like a Willis Reed rising from the ashes, the next series, I see #89/Toney? Maybe, I got a shot!? Toney never touches the ball in the 4th-quarter, and the Giants lose.
This game will bring Toney’s value down a little more. We keep moving weeks further away from when he had that showcase debut game against Dallas. Toney did nothing to draw attention to himself, but he will show low snaps, low output/targets and people’s lust level will drop a bit more.
I think you wait for WED-THU for him to be limited in practice. Let it come out (maybe) that he’s not a starter that he’s a rookie ‘still getting it’ and maybe even doesn’t play this week due to his wrist and ankle – his value is only going to melt a bit in his FF-owner’s eyes with every passing day he doesn’t do something amazing. You want in on this for Dynasty, but you don’t want to pay a lot because Toney is as likely to be bigger Tyreek Hill 2.0 as he is ‘acting a fool’ his way out of the league in short order.
-- Toney might have to start, if he’s OK, this week because Sterling Shepard (4-25-0/7) got hurt…again. I could see Shep getting traded today, but he probably won’t fetch enough that NYG just wouldn’t let him go into free agency and just get a compensation pick.
Evan Engram (3-15-1/4) should be traded, because there are TE desperate buyers…like Green Bay. Ross Jacobs had the right take on an Engram-to-GB event…there’s no way Aaron Rodgers has any instant connection with Engram, since every pass he throws is to Davante Adams…and then randomly, less effectively to everyone else. Engram would be a bit player in GB, like he is for NYG – you sell Engram hot if and when he’s traded to GB.
We’ll evaluate all these trades in reports this week, but more pressingly go through them on tonight’s Video Q&A.
-- Patrick Mahomes (29-48 for 275 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 3-10-0) looks nothing like the Mahomes of the past. Gone is the assassin that could find anyone anywhere on the field…downfield. He’s now laboring to find receivers open.
Since the Super Bowl, including the Super Bowl, Mahomes has been struggling in games as much as he is blowing through them of late. The Chargers made him look bad Week 4. Buffalo had zero issues with him Week 5. Tennessee crushed him in Week 7. The Giants handled him pretty well here. He got squashed in the Super Bowl.
I could feel the following statement in the live watch, and rewatch…I know it is true, I could football-feel it…
KC went right down the field and were about to score on the opening drive, but NYG picked a pass in the end zone to stop the drive. Then Dan Jones gave it right back, which then allowed KC a short field score 7-0…and I think the Giants defense was a little shell shocked at it all -- but because they are a good, tough defensive unit, with a very good D-C…the Giants bowed up and stopped the Chiefs from scoring three of the next 4 drives before halftime – and I could FEEL that the Giants were changing their game plan to not do the typical ‘go for all 4th-downs’ and ‘fake punts’ and whatever else desperate teams do because they believe they need to do everything clever to try and slay the dragon known as ‘the Chiefs’. I think about a quarter into this the Giants realized – Mahomes was human, sloppy, pressure-able and he was pressing to try to complete any pass…and they realized mid-1st-half that they no longer feared the boogeyman…not at all. And NYG played toe-to-toe, normal football flow with KC from there.
That’s where we are at with KC/Mahomes. No one is afraid anymore. This is a bad football team propped by Mahomes making wizard plays, but those plays aren’t there this year like they used to. I don’t know if he’s hurt. I don’t know if it’s the problematic O-Line. I don’t know if he’s got problems at home. I just see Mahomes isn’t the Mahomes of the past.
So, what do we FF-do?
You ride it out. You roll with Mahomes and hope he works out his issues…whether it’s the blocking, the coaching, the opponents, mental issues – you don’t get cute. You don’t get in a huff and trade him because ‘the league has figured him out’. You recognize he’s a super-talent, he didn’t forget how to play football all of a sudden…you go down with his ship – AND you go ‘buy low’ to try and save your (3-5), (2-6) season…go all-in on his rebound or die trying.
I’ll buy all your discounted frustration shares.
Also, credit the Giants defense…this is a really good DST and team of the future…if they can hold it together and get it healthy.
-- KC adjusted their game plan, FINALLY, for their passing game struggles by doing what any idiot would have done 2-3-4-5-6 weeks ago…simple short passes to Tyreek Hill (12-94-1/18) and let him try and make plays. And it was working…until they get cute and start getting away from it, ultimately to come back to it.
Hill’s short game set up the deep game, and he had a couple shots deep…but Mahomes was either flushed from the pocket (happening a lot these days) or on one 50+ yard moneyball where Tyreek was 3+ yards open sprinting deep…Mahomes underthrew it and it was knocked away.
In the end, I think KC’s issues in the passing game are two-fold:
1) Eric Bieniemy is the worst offensive coordinator in football and has been all along…just like Matt Nagy was a terrible head coach but his one good debut season made everyone think otherwise. How an O-C coaches Mahomes downward is a mystery…a fire-able event, but it will never happen that Eric will be fired/held to task.
2) The trade for Orlando Brown to go to Left Tackle, a big, slow run blocker who is getting beat by speed on the blindside too much – that decision is killing the golden goose/Mahomes.
Mahomes' pocket time measured the past 4 years…
2018 = 2.4 seconds in the pocket before pressure
2019 = 2.5
2020 = 2.6
2021 = 1.9
That’s DAMNING…but fixable…hopefully. (thus, all the sudden short throws to Tyreek, and disappearing long balls)
This adjustment for the lack of blocking…good for Tyreek in PPR for catch counts, at least.
-- Because Mahomes has limited time to throw and is pressing…Travis Kelce (4-27-0/7) is stumbling from the elite TE output down to pretty good, no longer ‘wow’.
Kelce has scored 1 TD in his past 6 games.
In half-PPR, Kelce is the #10 scoring PPG TE in Fantasy since Week 4.
He’s not a buy low or sell high, he…like Mahomes, is a ‘hold’. Buy low if you want to try and save a desperate season but people don’t let go of the notion of Kelce. FF-owners are starting to think Mahomes has been figured out, but they still think Kelce (and Waller) are elite.
-- Eric Bieniemy was saying last week how they like how Josh Gordon (0-0-0/1) was progressing and that they have a plan for him. https://youtu.be/NpYEJx7PkWE
-- Nick Bolton (11 tackles, 1 QB hit)…same old same old…70%+ of the snaps (not 100%) and double-digit tackles. 13.0 tackles per game his last two games.
He’s 12th in the NFL in total tackles. #11 in total solo tackles. #4 in total TFLs.
Snap Counts of Interest:
52 = Darrel Williams
16 = Gore
13 = McKinnon
62 = Tyreek
43 = Pringle
40 = Hardman
52 = Slayton
34 = Toney
24 = Collin J.
23 = Shepard
16 = Ross
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 8: Jets 34, Bengals 31
This was no fluke – this was the Jets smacking the Bengals down, a very good Bengals team.
And it wasn’t like it was a lot of fluky things that the Jets seized on…in fact, it was the opposite. NYJ raced right down the field opening drive and took a 7-0 lead. Then the Jets then turned the ball over 3 times in a short span – two tipped pass picks, and a fumble lost…allowing Cincy to crawl back in and take a 17-7 lead with under 2-minutes to the half. At that point, it seemed like the Bengals had righted the ship, seized control and were on their way. They weren’t…
Mike White drove the Jets right down the field on a beautiful hurry-up/2-minute drill long drive for a TD to close it to 17-14 CIN at the half. The Jets tied it 17-17 in the 3rd-quarter. Cincy took back the lead 24-17 and then 31-20 with 7+ minutes remaining, and it seemed over again, but the Jets scored two more TDs in a few minute span led by Mike White driving them down…and the Jets held on for the win.
The Bengals were shell shocked. They were definitely sleepwalking through this easy win (they thought) early on, but when they woke up and started fighting back…the Jets fought harder. The Bengals were beaten in every way this game. The kinda game that can derail a season…all Cincy momentum lost. Huge game hosting Cleveland next week will either re-propel them or send them into a tailspin. I’m not sure, after watching this, if Cincy just played a bad game and will fire back Week 9 and handle the Browns…or if this was a sign of the breakdown, and they become ‘the Bengals’ again…coming back to earth. I really am not sure…because pretty much nothing made sense in the NFL Week 8, which is why the product is so wonderful…and maddening.
The Jets are now (2-5)…two wins over playoff teams, TEN and CIN. If they beat Indy at Indy on TNF this week (9) then the Jets have a full scale QB controversy…they kinda already do…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- All hail Mike White (37-45 for 405 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs)! He won this game. A lot of screens, but also a lot of shredding the gaps with smart slants and timing passes. He played a terrific game. He’s not like some wheeler dealer looming passing star…he’s just another really capable NFL QB. He had/was like a better Mac Jones type of game – a lot of short slicing and dicing, but Cincy was helpless to stop it.
White wore the Bengals out with screen passes that Cincy never adjusted to…and when they tried to adjust, White would start going more downfield. It was so good, so efficient, that the Jets suddenly have a major issue…White looked 10x better running the offense than Zach Wilson. If Wilson could come back this week…they couldn’t/shouldn’t bench White after such a performance (and the Jets performances prior), but they probably would do that because it’s the NFL and ‘best man wins’ is a con they tell themselves. If they forced Wilson back in, then Wilson would be crucified if he jumped back in and lost big with turnovers, again. It may be terminal to his Jets career.
White will start Week 9 TNF at IND…if he wins that game, then the Jets have a MAJOR problem. If White wins again this week, then I bet Wilson would magically not get cleared as fast by the doctors for Week 10…
White’s two picks in this game…one was a pass that was a little off but hit receiver’s hands and led to a pick. The next a batted pass turned pick. He really didn’t throw too many bad passes…maybe 1 or 2 at the most. Very impressive. Way better shock-win start than Cooper Rush (who was fine too).
-- White’s efficiency sprung the RBs to huge games in the passing game.
Michael Carter (15-77-1, 9-95-0/14) and Ty Johnson (4-15-0, 5-71-1/6) combined for 14 catches, 166 yards, and 1 TD on 20 targets in the passing game.
It’s a super smart plan…and I’ve been whining about it for 4+ weeks for Zach Wilson to simply checkdown to set up the big plays…but he never would. White did…and the Jets scored 34 points and won a game against a top defense. The game plan was perfect to protect/divert attention away from the bad O-Line, and it keeps the ball moving.
I expect we’ll see a repeat plan against Indy in Week 9…so Carter is a for-sure PPR play and Ty Johnson is a sleeper PPR option.
-- Four WR notes…
1) Ja’Marr Chase (1-9-0, 3-32-1/9) didn’t have his best game, a couple of drops but you can count on the fact that the defense is starting to play him like he’s the main thing to shut down – which helps open up everything else.
He’s still not a great WR to me, but I am starting to see the speed/fear of the speed making defenses overcompensate on him and that allows the rest of the offense to flourish.
2) Jamison Crowder (8-84-0/9) got a ton of easy passes and he cashed in. Could keep up Week 9…if he’s not traded first.
3) Elijah Moore (6-67-0/6) stood out here. Best he’s looked. Several catches in the gut/over the middle, a nice pitch-and-catch with White. Moore may be getting ready to PPR pop a little bit…IF Crowder is traded.
4) Denzel Mims (2-30-0/3) got more time with Corey Davis out, but he didn’t cash in on it. Played the most snaps of any Jets WR this game but was minimally looked at. They just need to deal Mims. He’s either done as an NFL player…the new N’Keal Harry…or it’s a Jets problem that new scenery will fix. I think Mims will be a Panther by the end of Tuesday/trade deadline.
-- C.J. Uzomah (4-33-0/4) got an extra target and catch more than usual this week, but no TD...he's slowly getting himself in the 'could be a TE1 this week' sweepstakes every week now...the same way Hunter Henry and Dawson Knox were -- low targets, good efficiency, high TD rate.
-- Quincy Williams (1 tackles, 1 PD) was back from his concussion but he played limited snaps as NYJ activated terrible Jarrad Davis (3 tackles) and jammed him into the starting lineup. The Quincy Williams run may be done for reasons I will never understand, but I know the NFL…the Jets sought out Davis in the preseason and he’s back off IR and rammed right into the starting lineup.
Snap Counts of Interest:
43 = Uzomah
20 = Sample
43 = Mixon
14 = Perine
59 = Mims
55 = Cole
51 = Crowder
30 = E Moore
59 = M Carter
24 = Ty Johnson
