R.C. Fischer

FFM

18 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Bucs 46, Panthers 23

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

Quite frankly, I have no idea how this game got so out of hand. Carolina took a quick 7-0 lead, and pretty much dominated/led Tampa Bay all first half. TB scored late right before halftime to tie it 17-17.

The Bucs won the second half 29-6.

This is who the Bucs are, all in one game…

In the first half, you’re like…man this team is poorly coached/executed, Brady is getting old, this defense is good but has gaffes…and then in the second half Brady is air raiding and the defense is flashing ’85 Bears’ again. The Jekyll & Hyde of the Bucs 2020 happened all in one game here. This ended up a laugher, but it really wasn’t for about the first 35 minutes.

The Bucs are now (7-3) and are chasing the Saints in the NFC South, who lost Drew Brees for a while. The Bucs’ window is now to make a move, but bad news – they play the Rams and Chiefs the next two weeks. Two very tough opponents. If TB can split those two games, they should finish (12-4) and possibly win the South. If they slip to (11-5) for the finish…they’ll be a wild card. The Saints own the tiebreaker over them.

The Panthers just played the two best teams in football in back-to-back weeks…they’re unlucky. They’ve lost five in-a-row, but they aren’t playing like the (3-7) team they are. Carolina could win their next three games and get to (6-7) and have some long shot wildcard hopes, but likely they will finish with 6-7 wins tops. With another loss they may just shut down Christian McCaffrey for the season and then end up with 5-6 wins as they prep for 2021.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Two very important FF-things that jumped out at me re-watching this tape…

 

1) Curtis Samuel (3-4-0, 3-8-0/5) had a bad FF game/output, but I’ve never been as encouraged by his usage more than after watching this game.

Samuel was the first target of the game, and then he was also the second…and the second one being him at tail back on play #3 of the game. Second series, Samuel was the first target again, and he played more lined up at tail back.

I’ve not seen Samuel lined up in the backfield during 2020 as much as I saw it here.

Why did he FF-suck then? Tampa Bay has the #1 run defense in the league, and they came to play this game. Everything was shut down.

The Bucs so dominated time of possession that Carolina only ran 48 offensive plays, where 65+ is the norm. And of the limited plays, the Bucs defense was hot…CAR was 1-of-9 on 3rd-downs. Samuel was the main piece during the 17-17 1st-half slugfest. He was playing but not targeted much in the 2nd-half during the onslaught. The run game got ditched, and eventually the Carolina train went off the tracks.

Samuel, with CMC out, is THEE most important skill position player (non-QB) that Carolina uses. Don’t give up on Samuel. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if he took a career high in carries this week – like 7-8+, like he’s almost the starting RB in a split.

 

2) Antonio Brown (7-69-0/8) is Tom Brady’s favorite throw, and it’s not debatable. Brown put up these solid FF numbers playing 49% of the snaps.

It’s not just the math of it all, but you can see it on tape -- Brady is forcing it with Mike Evans (6-77-1/11) and he’s OK with Chris Godwin (6-92-0/6) as a nice 3rd-wheel option. Where Brady’s heart, where his ying & yang connection is – is with AB. Some of the throws/catches here could only be from a trusted relationship.

Whether or not AB gets more playing time, is debatable. I think Bruce Arians doesn’t want to piss off Evans-Godwin, but he’s going to have to eventually. Brady wants to work with Brown.

 

 -- The loser of the AB uprising might be Gronk (2-51-1/3). Brady has so many things to throw to, Gronk can just stay in to block and let Brady work this great WR-trio.

Gronk is becoming Brady’s TD guy…a TD in four of his last 5 games.

 

 -- Mike Davis (7-32-0, 4-12-0/5) might be wearing down, as I hinted the last week or two. Now, CMC is out again, and Davis is carrying the load. Tough run defense to do anything against, and then he came out as the blowout ensued.

Samuel may split the backfield with Davis more and more, or if Davis goes down…it’s Samuel with Rodney Smith (3-13-0, 1-2-0/1). Smith is a solid hand RB, a poor man’s Mark Ingram, who may matter if Davis is wearing down and CMC gets shelved for the rest of 2020.

 

 -- Ronald Jones (23-192-1, 1-6-0/2) had that sweet 98-yard TD in this game, but minus that he had 22 carries for 94 yards and no TDs. Fine but not his typical workload. They tried to just run it out at the end with their big lead.

I’m a RoJo fan, but I fear this output is a blip/head fake of what to expect next week, and the next week, etc.

 

 -- This version of the TB-DST is the #1 best DST in fantasy, but schedule matters more for DST play.

You could use TB-DST vs. LAR this week, I think it’s OK. Week 12 v. KC is no-go. Then a Week 13 bye. Weeks 11-13 aren’t very fruitful here.

Weeks 14-16 are better, but no cupcakes per se…MIN, at ATL, at DET are not patsies…but TB’s defense is so dominant they will project well against all of them.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

43 = Moore

35 = Robby

34 = Samuel

 

25 = Mike D

09 = Rodney Smith

 

72 = Godwin

64 = Evans

39 = AB

09 = Miller

 

47 = RoJo

29 = Fournette

R.C. Fischer

FFM

17 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Saints 27, 49ers 13

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

Because it’s 2020, I just watched Jameis Winston ‘lead’ (very loose quotations there) the Saints to a victory over Nick Mullens.

Welcome to the most bizarre season of football in my lifetime.

Not much to report about the game itself here… The 49ers put up a fight for a bit, but you can only go so far with Nick Mullens. The Saints took a 17-10 halftime lead, then Drew Brees got hurt…but the Saints just held on as the 49ers fumbled and muffed punted their way to a two-score loss led in part by 4 turnovers…and mostly key/killer ones.

The Saints rise to (7-2), winners of five in a row…but all those good vibrations are negated by the loss of Drew Brees…maybe more negated by the reality of a Jameis Winston ‘dark winter’ possibility ahead. We’re looking at 2-3 games missed and possibly a couple losses with Brees returning in time to go at Philly then host the Chiefs. The road ahead, without Brees is not easy. The Buccaneers just got some life breathed back into an NFC South title hope. We loosely project the Saints to finish with 10-11 wins and if they get to 11 wins, they will win the NFC South.

The 49ers have had a ‘dark winter’ since September…mounting injuries have all but wiped them out for 2020. They are now (4-6) and on a bye. Before you count them out, if they beat the Rams Week 12 to get to (5-6), getting Mostert-Deebo-maybe Jimmy G.-Sherman, etc., back – they got a shot to sneak into the wild card. We project them falling short with 7-8 wins. They’d have to stay perfectly healthy to pull this off, on top of getting a big win streak going – it’s almost too much to ask. Lose to the Rams Week 12, and it is over.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- So, who will the Saints QB be in Week 11?

Two competing thoughts:

1) Jameis Winston (6-10 for 63 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT) is terrible and looked terrible here in his brief appearance. Jameis…you are no Teddy Bridgewater. My first thought is – it can’t be Winston. He was so bad that Taysom Hill finished out the game late to try and run the ball/control clock and put SF away for sure/good.

2) It’s never Taysom Hill (0-0, 8-45-0). Anytime Brees has gone down…it’s never Taysom. The Taysom as the Saints’ future QB thing, I’m beginning to believe it is a total fraud. Use for a couple gadget plays, sure. Start-to-finish starter at QB…never has happened non-Week 17. They barely let Hill throw passes all year, or last year…and the second Brees goes down here, they go right to Winston. Last year, right to Teddy.

If I had to bet, I’d lean Winston to start Week 11.

Two thoughts from here…

a) Hill is going to take elevated snaps at QB now, in-game, so if he qualifies as a TE in your FF league – he’s as much a TE1 potential as any non-Kelce/Waller.

b) Winston could flop, and Hill play half a game at QB…and then Hill starts the following week by attrition.

I’ve been talking about it for weeks…in this era of TE desperation, Hill was slowly starting to become a legit TE1 hope on increased touches he’s been getting. Week 11 might be the most touches he’ll have in a game in years (non-Week 17 play).

 

 -- So, who will start for the 49ers at QB their next game?

I’m guessing Kyle Shanahan is getting tired of watching Nick Mullens (24-38 for 247 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) flail away, but his heart seems to be with Mullens. However, he may be at a point to give C.J. Beathard a shot to see if it changes their fortune.

Jimmy G. is eligible to return Week 14 at the earliest.

Just noting again…Beathard has some FF potential because he is a really good runner of the ball, and a better passing QB (to me) than Mullens.

 

 -- JaMycal Hasty (3-13-0) went down for the season with an injury in this game, and Jerick McKinnon (18-33-0, 1-13-0/3) failed again…and Mostert-Coleman-Deebo-Wilson slated for return Week 12.

I don’t know that there’s a reason to hold McKinnon in a redraft the next two weeks, if one or more of Mostert-Coleman-Wilson returns.

 

 -- Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill…either will have a negative affect on the Saints-related passing game.

Michael Thomas (2-27-0/7) looked out of sync with Brees and looked 10x more out of sync with Winston. I know if Winston starts, he’ll throw it to Thomas blindly a lot…so Thomas might survive as a WR2

With Taysom Hill…everything declines in volume as Hill will run the ball a lot and not lean on any one receiver.

Jared Cook (0-0-0/2) is in some trouble with Winston but might be as randomly plausible as any non-Kelce/Waller…but in bigger trouble with Hill, when Hill runs heavy and needs a blocking TE to help.  

 

 -- The best WR on the field this game…Brandon Aiyuk (7-75-1/14), he’s really become a great rookie WR right under the radar, to a degree, because the 49ers are so boring/ignored with all their injuries and Nick Mullens.

Aiyuk + Deebo are going to be a great 1-2 punch in the future…for whatever QB Kyle Shanahan deals with in 2021. It won’t be Jimmy G., or Mullens, or Beathard. It will likely be a veteran signing/trade and a rookie drafted to develop.

Just a pure guess…not Matt Ryan or Carson Wentz due to their contracts, but I’ll throw a dart and say Gardner Minshew acquired. A baseless guess. The most likely thing is a rookie QB, since they’re all walking into the league and doing just fine right off the bat.

 

 -- Aiyuk was the best WR on the field here, I didn’t say best ‘receiver’ on the field…because that might have been Jordan Reed (5-62-0/6).

This was a spry/quick as I’ve seen Reed in a while. He also was the second-most targeted, 2nd-most productive receiver for SF here – and he made some terrific catches and sweet shiftiness after some of his catches. Very impressed.

I think he’s got a shot to be a strong PPR TE1 ahead. He’s my new favorite TE gamble, along with Taysom.

 

 -- The Saints-DST logged another solid game, but note it was the injured/depleted 49ers and some muffed punts, etc. All good things, but I didn’t necessarily see some shift to greatness with this D. Now, they’ll lose some offense without Brees. The Saints-DST vs. the Falcons two of the next three weeks does not excite me. Week 12 at DEN should be good.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

46 = Mk Thomas

34 = Emm Sanders

21 = D Harris

 

27 = Trautman

21 = Cook

 

69 = James

68 = Aiyuk

41 = Bourne

 

37 = Dwelley

31 = Jo Reed

R.C. Fischer

FFM

17 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Vikings 19, Bears 13

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

What an exciting game to watch out at my local neighborhood Buffalo Wild Wings… Me enthusiastically wondering if Kyle Sloter was possibly going into the game late for carted-off Nick Foles was the most exciting thing this game provided to me, but because it’s 2020, and I can’t have nice things, or Diet Dr. Pepper, all I got a Tyler Bray unhappy ending.

What’s really sad is Bray made more money on his first throw of 2020 than I will make all year. I drowned my sorrows in Parmesan Garlic and Jammin’ Jalapeno wings. What I like about the Jammin’ Jalapeno wings is they’re a ‘limited time only’ sauce option at BWW, as marked on their menus, and they’ve been available without fail for at least a decade now…but they’re still marked as a ‘limited time only’. I’m so delighted every time I see it wondering if they are doing that on purpose or no one has caught.

It’s the little things in life that entertain me/drive me crazy.

Two paragraphs about the Buffalo Wild Wings to start this report, and little about the game itself – that tells you what you need to know here.

Game-wise, this might have been the singularly worst game of offensive football I’ve ever witnessed…from a team that has functional, talented offensive players – that being the Chicago Bears. Just when you thought Matt Nagy was the worst offensive mind in the NFL, his offensive coordinator took over playing calling with a ‘hold my beer…’ effort to prove that he was the worst. Mission accomplished. Also, note…Matt Nagy hired this guy, so technically Nagy is still the worst offensive mind in football for hiring the worst offensive mind in football, Bill Lazor.

This may be the game where Matt Nagy got everybody fully ‘turned’ on him now…and embarrassing display on cable television.

The funny irony would be if this was the coach who was hired to take Nagy’s place (he will be available): https://youtu.be/eldavQFLJD8?t=284

Minnesota didn’t play a great game or anything, they just got out of the way and let the Bears repeatedly faceplant and won the game. The best moment of the night was when the Vikings kicked-off to former Viking Cordarrelle Patterson and he ran it back for a TD and Mike Zimmer almost had a spontaneously combusted on his special team’s coach on the sidelines. The Bears’ lone TD was the CP KR TD return.

The Vikings are winners of three in a row, and right back into the playoff picture at (4-5). They really should be (5-4/6-3) but things happened. The schedule ahead could get them to 9 wins, but we see (8-8)…and that might be a final wild card, maybe. There is some hope in Minnesota now. Had the Jags beaten the Packers this week, which they should have, the Vikings could’ve been just two games out of 1st-place with 7 games to go.  

The Bears have lost four in-a-row and have sunk to (5-5) and fading fast. They might get to 8 wins, but I’d say more likely 7 and then a big wondering if Nagy gets dumped after the season.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- At first, it looked like Nick Foles’s (15-26 for 106 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) season might be over but news is breaking that the injury may not be as bad as first thought, and there’s a BYE this week (11), so it’s possible Foles is back at the helm. Even if he is, this offense is swirling down the drain fast.

I’d love to see Mitch Trubisky come in to save the day, becoming a runner/thrower that starts making a difference (he’s is undefeated as a starter this season) – but Trubisky is hurt and doesn’t show the heart of great football player, so even if he got in it would be more of the same Nagy-nonsense.

I think there’s a case to be made that Trubisky has a lot of raw talent and it was totally uncoached, or anti-coached away into the terrible QB people perceive today. It will be interesting what team takes a shot on him next year – he’d be perfect for Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan to work on, but the best spot I think is for Sean McDermott to get him and make him a Josh Allen-lite and try to give Mitch a heart transplant. No greater QB miracle has occurred in my history of studying football than the improvement McDermott has been a part of with Josh Allen from 2018 to 2019 to 2020.

If Foles and Trubisky are out, then if you thought this offense looked bad before then wait until you see it led by Tyler Bray.

 

 -- All this QB chaos means two things for me:

1) Allen Robinson (6-43-0/9) is going to have a hard time sustaining a WR1 status…between the offense/the QBs and the weather ahead – in redraft you need to plan for the worst here.

2) I’ll not speak of Darnell Mooney (2-3-0/2) again until Matt Nagy is gone, and I see who the replacement is. His talents are going to waste AND he’ll never get better with Nagy’s rule/staff.

 

 -- Worse than the Bears’ QB situation is their RB situation…

Cordarrelle Patterson (12-30-0, 3-19-0/2) started and was of little impact. We all know CP is talented, so the fact that he can do nothing in this offense is not on him…which means there is no hope ahead.

Lamar Miller (0-0-0, 2-6-0/2) was in the game after Patterson…and was barely used.

When I saw Miller enter after Patterson, I ripped up and tossed my Ryan Nall (1-0-0, 1-18-0/2) lottery tickets. Here’s how stupid Matt Nagy is, as if you needed more evidence…down by a score late in a hurry up/all-pass offense, the former WR and huge playmaker Cordarrelle Patterson is not on the field but Ryan Nall is. Why? Wouldn’t a bubble screen or jet sweep to Patterson be in some kind of order given the playmaker he is…for an offense struggling mightily? Not for Nagy.

Oh, and for some reason the 3rd RB into the game was not Nall…it was Artavis Pierce (3-9-0). Congrats, Lazor-Nagy!!!

David Montgomery (DNP) may actually be a good RB, but it’s Nagy killing him. I have to at least consider that.

The Bears are like the Colts for me, for FF…I don’t want anything to do with any of them. Not the RBs (redraft 2020) or the WRs or the QBs or the TEs.

 

 -- Nothing much to say about the Vikings here. They tried to run the ball a thousand times, per usual, but it was bottled up pretty well…so, when Kirk Cousins had to throw he dealt to Justin Jefferson (8-135-0/10) for another monster FF performance.

We’re used to Jefferson doing well, but we have to also consider here – this was a Bears pass defense that has been shutting down most things. However, Justin Jefferson rolled through/on to a great game. A sign that Jefferson isn’t just having a good targeting/touch count run of production…more that he is really, really good…bordering on great 10 weeks into his rookie season. It’s stunning how good the rookie WRs are of this era.

 

 -- My guy, Eric Wilson had 7 total tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 TFLs, and a PD this game.

He’s now the #7 LB in IDP PPG on the season (FPros scoring).

Since Week 2, Wilson is #4 in IDP PPG…two tackles away from being #2 to leader/Bears LB Roquan Smith (14 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 3 TFLs).

 

 -- Four losses in a row for the Bears, with their defense just not good enough to pull off wins. They are holding offenses down to ‘manageable’ but they’re not providing the fire/the FF scoring you want from your DST (but the CP KR TD return helped).

The Bears-DST is the #11 FF scoring PPG DST in fantasy this season…never bad, but never really great. A bye this week, and then the at Green Bay…not good, especially as this team starts swirling down the drain.

DET, HOU, at MIN, at JAX Weeks 13-16 look favorable but not awesome.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

46 = Mooney

45 = ARob

24 = A Miller

 

25 = CPatt

17 = Nall

06 = A. Pierce

05 = L Miller

 

59 = Cook

05 = Mattison

 

57 = Rudolph

46 = Conklin

R.C. Fischer

FFM

17 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Cardinals 32, Bills 30

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

What a game…what an ending.

What has become two of the best ‘good, but not going to win the Super Bowl’ teams in the NFL met here and a shocking Hail Mary ending gave the Cardinals a miracle victory. Buffalo led 23-9 mid-3rd-quarter, but Arizona pulled into the lead with three scores in a 9+ minute span…a 17-point run to take a 26-23 lead.

The teams battled, scoreless, all 4th-quarter until Buffalo drove down the field with what looked like a late-game winning TD, taking a 30-26 lead with 0:34 left, but because it’s 2020…Arizona got to midfield and then flung a Hail Mary pass which DeAndre Hopkins caught in the middle of four defenders for the shocking victory.

It was an entertaining game, to say the least. It was also a showcase of two of the best players in the game right now – Kyler Murray and Josh Allen. Buffalo seemed like the better team all along, but Arizona never folded…and pulled out a shocker. Both of these teams ‘arrived’ in this game. More so Arizona but Buffalo has nothing to be ashamed of here either. Well played game by two talented teams with a storybook finish.

Now, I’m a believer. I’m with Bet The Close Podcast’s Chris Bilello, who predicted this Arizona uprising in the summer (with me telling him it was too much to ask of Kliff Kingsbury)…I believe Arizona can win the NFC West. I’ll go one further…this game, this season really, but this game is the tipping point – now, I believe Arizona can win the NFC West, but also go to the Super Bowl. Not ready to say they will…just new believing they can.

Seattle was a mild fraud as the clear top team in the NFC, and now they are falling away with recent losses to the rest of the NFC West. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are very dangerous and clearly beatable. The Saints are good but seriously flawed and minus Drew Brees now. The Packers are clearly beatable, beneficiaries of an easy schedule/weak division pushing them along. I’m not saying Arizona WILL outrun them all, but I am saying I believe for the first time it is now possible they can – their defense continues to play well and Kyler is getting better and better. I could see Arizona winning the West and going to the NFC title game or I could see them stumbling from here and being a wild card and losing 1st-round – but going the distance is now a possibility in my mind.

If the Cardinals can beat Seattle on TNF this week…they have to be the favorites to win the NFC West. If they lose, they are back into a dogfight to the finish. I think they will lose Week 11 being AT Seattle (but hoping they win) but go on to finish (10-6) and be right in the mix with LAR and SEA for the NFC West title. The Week 11 ARI-SEA winner will have a big edge because Seattle has a very easy schedule ahead, and Arizona’s isn’t bad either (the Rams have a tougher road by comparison).

Buffalo falls to (7-3)…seconds away from being (8-2). The sweet AFC East cushion the Bills had just escaped via DeAndre Hopkins as Miami (6-3) now gets to one win behind the Bills in the division. We still project the Bills to win the AFC East without worrying about Week 17 v. Miami.

I’d bet the Bills to go further in the playoffs and more likely to win their division but just like this game – don’t count out Arizona. I no longer am. I think Arizona climbed (and it has been building for weeks) to a next level here (with more steps to go). They’ve gone from a good team that Kyler has to be accounted for, to more ‘expect them to win’ week-to-week. All credit to Kliff Kingsbury and Vance Joseph who I never thought could get this team into this position.

…if the Cardinals fall from here, I will lead the ‘see, I told you so’ brigade – but I don’t think I’ll be dusting that oldie but goodie for use ahead here.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- I should talk about Kyler Murray first, but I’m going to talk Josh Allen (32-49 for 284 yards, 2 TDs/2 INT, 7-38-0, 1 TD catch) first…because that is where the FF opportunity lies.

Had the Hail Mary pass gone as they normally do…incomplete, and Buffalo had won the game – it would, or should, be the moment everyone in football celebrated and pushed Josh Allen as the NFL MVP alternative to Patrick Mahomes. Instead, crickets.

Lost in the Hail Mary, which is cool but a fluke play, was the fact that Josh Allen once again led a late game drive down to a good team, needing a score to tie/win and Allen put a laser beam throw in a perfect placement to Stefon Diggs with 0:34 left for what SHOULD have been the game winning score. You know what happened with Arizona’s last drive…which stole the spotlight from Allen.

I mean, watch this throw/play, Allen is doing this all the time in 2020…especially catch the slow-mo replay as the very short video runs: https://youtu.be/CpHp48MuMcs

Allen drifting in the pocket, flatfooted dart in the only place this pass could’ve been to succeed…and Allen has been doing this all season. He’s been the closest thing to Patrick Mahomes as there has been in the NFL, him and Justin Herbert but Allen a touch better.

Where’s the FF-opportunity in this?

Well, Kyler gets all the praise after this game. He’s getting the MVP talk, but Allen just scored about the same amount of points Kyler did in this game (in 6pts per pass TD)…and Allen is a top 5 fantasy QB, and he’d be competing with Kyler’s #1 YTD spot if not for the unseasonable crappy weather games Allen had to play a few weeks ago which brought his FF numbers down a tick. Kyler is the current king of fantasy QBs, but Allen is right up there…but if you tried to trade for them…Kyler is unobtainable, and Allen is very obtainable. Kyler would be valued as the #1 QB in fantasy, even ahead of Mahomes. Allen…may be priced as a top 10 QB type valuation because people think he’s similar to Carson Wentz/they disbelieve. People think, perhaps, he’s on a little Carson Wentz hot streak…but they ‘know’ it won’t last.

I’m just noting…Allen’s greatness is hidden once again…you can get a deal again this week – not that he’s being given away, but people (by and large) still do not believe. I know most of you have Mahomes and/or Kyler, and/or Herbert and/or traded for Allen already off my last five+ weeks of howling about it…but I’m here again to say, there is still a window, because people still do not believe, and Kyler stole the fresh belief that could’ve started here.

The one pause for going too nuts chasing Allen for the rest of 2020, while he’s on a bye – Weeks 12-16 could all be cold, crappy weather events…or just ‘not ideal’ events. The thing that can cap a QB’s upside is frigid weather…and that’s Buffalo in December, but the Bills play at home only once in December…the problem is at DEN and at NE Weeks 15-16 can be just as bad. How it gets overcome some -- is Allen is the Bills best power runner as well.

 

 -- I discussed Allen first, because of the FF-value and continuing the different thought process I’ve had on him. That’s not to take away from Kyler. The Kyler Murray (22-32 for 245 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 11-61-2) report, this week, is growing quite simple…

Kyler is now the king of fantasy QBs.

He might wind up being a higher scoring QB than Lamar Jackson was last year.

Who is laughing now, those of you who moved heaven and earth or used the touch of a finger to select Kyler Murray WAYYY ahead of where you were supposed to in Dynasty Rookie Drafts last year? You still want Josh Jacobs instead?

You know, I’m early mapping out the start of the 2021 College Football Metrics season (can you believe January is coming soon?) and wondering how to price it, what it’s going to look like – and it made me think, the Kyler Murray push we had in 2019…paid for your that subscription and then some, right now. Chase Claypool is paying for some of the 2020 costs.

I put a lot of work into College Football Metrics scouting of players, it is the lifeblood of Dynasty Rookie Draft strategy and the foundation for valuing these players for the NFL seasons for Fantasy and Handicapping, etc. My CFM season is like two full time jobs in one week for all time scouting tape and researching backgrounds/numbers and writing lengthy reports. Your support of CFM -- keeps it and me alive during the ‘offseason’ (there is no offseason in football). This past year with COVID and the unique college season with all the opt-outs…it’s going to be the most challenging scouting season ever. I really need and value your support of CFM. I try to make it more than worth your time and support. You’ll never know, and I’ll never be able to express, just how much your support of CFM means to keeping the FFM train rolling up the uphill tracks…not to mention support of FFM for the actual seasons as they come about.

Your CFM support…it helped us produce a Kyler Murray bumper crop. It wasn’t enough to say ‘I think he’s good’, although it was a split decision on football people for/against him at the time. Just claiming he was ‘good’ wasn’t good enough -- you had to explore, consider just how good and thus how Dynasty-valuable he was. No one valued him like we did. Those that have him in Dynasty because of it – enjoy the fruits of your support and your personal action/decision to go get him. It wasn’t easy to get to him for many, and mocking from league mates occurred for as high as we chased him.

But who’s laughing now?

Every win, every moment like this – it only strengthens Kyler’s Dynasty value because he HAS to have Kliff Kingsbury giving him the LONG leash to do whatever he wants.

However, just to bring us down a notch, note that Lamar Jackson was the cat’s pajamas this time last year…and now look at him. We can never let our guard down.

The difference is…Kyler is actually a good QB/passer and Lamar is not really.

Just to put a bow on it all – I need your support of CFM more than ever in 2021. COVID kicked CFM’s butt when it hit in March-April and we all weren’t sure if the world may have been ending. Your support keeps me safely on the mission fields researching more players than ever in a year where many top guys skipped the college season. We’re going to have to look under every rock for James Robinson’s.

 

 -- The greatness of Josh Allen is rendering the Buffalo Bills backfield totally useless for FF. You know how Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell have never predictably/consistently mattered for KC? Same for Buffalo. Sean McDermott has created a superhero in Josh Allen, and he is putting it all on him.

Devin Singletary (4-15-0, 1-0-0/5) is an RB4/done. He’ll have a few 3-4-5 catch games a season, but little else for FF otherwise.

Zack Moss (7-20-0, 1-0-0/2) is going to be the lead guy, in a sense, because he’s going to be a short yardage specialist.

The Panthers and Saints and Raiders (to name a few) build the offense around a running back. Buffalo, KC, Baltimore, Rams, the Patriots…the running backs are necessary evils you do by committee.

I never thought Josh Allen would get good…or great…or elite, so I believed the Bills would run with Singletary and play good defense. Instead, they are the Chiefs Northeast. My preseason desire for Singletary has blown up in my face. I don’t believe Singletary failed…he looks fine…but the Buffalo offense has shifted because it should.

I say this as a cautionary tale for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, J.K. Dobbins, and Damien Harris – all super talented, but now I’m wondering if they are always going to be talented backup singers to a spotlight stealing lead singer (the QB). That they’ll never fulfill what their talent says it should? The NFL is changing so fast it’s hard to keep up with.

I know this – I’m done with heavy running back valuation for fantasy. Never again. We’ll explore all the logic in the offseason, but the NFL is about to shift even further away from ONE back.

I’m certain of this for 2021, so that means there will be another radical shift out of nowhere and thus no forward passes in 2021 just wishbone run games while I have 17 WRs on my roster.

 

 -- The rise of Kyler as the center of the universe will put pressure on the Cardinals RBs too, and it already has.

Kenyan Drake (16-100-0, 1-9-0/1) rushed for a hundred yards…YIPPIE, that’s so awesome. Except it isn’t because who cares about 11.9 PPR/10.9 non-PPR fantasy points in a week? If the running back gets some work between the 20s, and Kyler does all the TD stuff mostly minus the lead carry RB…then who cares about 100 yard rushing games? Damien Harris rushes for 100+ yards like every week, and J.D. McKissic outscores him, in PPR, every week.

Chase Edmonds (8-56-0, 3-21-0/3) didn’t rush for 100+ yards but scored about the same as Drake because of his pass game work.

The 100-yard rusher with no TD/no pass game guy is DEAD in fantasy.

How many workhorses are left (and not injured) in the NFL that really matter/are effective for FF? Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry…and…and…??

Piss on Joe Mixon and Miles Sanders and others like them. Next year, I’ll be happy with a loaded QB -WR-TE depth chart and a bunch of PPR RBs, and I’ll adjust as we go in-season off waivers to whatever hot RB pops up. Fantasy waivers have been a playground of RBs to use this year.

Why did I sweat over a Jacobs v. Chubb v. Drake v. Mixon v. Sanders late 1st-round pick decision…when I coulda just taken Wayne Gallman and J.D. McKissic?

 

 -- Christian Kirk (4-27-0/6) has a good matchup here, but he fell back to earth. Kirk was hot the last three weeks, but the recent trending was more like this game…3-4-5 catches, 6-7-8 targets, insignificant targets mostly (less than 40 yards two of last 3 games)…but prior games he got open for a few TDs and all seemed FF-great, but then this dud.

Kirk has value as the #2 WR here, but he’s going to have weeks like this…and you just have to roll with it, not always guessing and always a week behind/wrong. Kyler takes most of the goodness on the ground not through the air, unless it’s DeAndre Hopkins.

Buffalo has the better passing game for all WRs, that’s why I’ve been chasing John Brown (6-72-0/8) like a lunatic and if he’s out this week I want Cole Beasley (11-109-1/13). Brown was on his way to another nice FF game, but he got banged up and Beasley rose up in-game.

Josh Allen makes all things great at WR…and suffocates to death the TE and RBs.

Kyler Murray makes himself great, and usually DeAndre Hopkins…and then everything else is random hopefuls, unpredictably, each week.

 

 -- But what about these two defenses? No one cares, right?

Consider the fact that this game was two high functioning offenses/QBs and it was 26-23 with 30+ seconds left. I thought the defenses were pretty great here considering who they were facing and how they shut each other down in the 4th-quarter. Allen had to throw a pass only few humans could in order to take the lead late, and then Kyler boosted his numbers with a fluke Hail Mary. Outside of that, this was a well-played game by both defenses – defenses we should respect on good matchups.

Buffalo-DST will be useful/good Week 13 at SF and Weeks 15-16 at DEN, at NE. Three good spots in 4 games Week’s 13-16. Also, all those games could be cold, bad weather to help.

Arizona-DST is a better unit than Buffalo, to me, at this stage…more talented but not as well coached (because McDermott is maybe the best coach in the league) and no weather aid to help the DST. Weeks 13-16, Arizona is home three games in December.

I like the Cards-DST Week 12 at NE, Week 14 at NYG, Week’s 15-16 at home v. PHI-SF (but in safe dome conditions for offense allowance). From Week 12-16, you got four useful opportunities. Just Week 13 v. the Rams is not as favorable.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

38 = Drake

26 = Edmonds

 

39 = Maxx Williams

35 = Arnold

14 = DDaniels

 

39 = Moss

34 = Singletary

R.C. Fischer

FFM

16 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 10 Game Analysis: Colts 34, Titans 17

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

I cannot believe the Colts won this game…after watching how it started.

I cannot believe the Colts are going to walk away with the AFC South title, but now I’m convinced they are.

The Titans looked like the superior team from the jump…a quick 7-0 lead for the Titans. A 17-13 lead for Tennessee at the half. Then it all started falling apart…shanked punts, blocked punts, missed FGs – the Titans did this to themselves. Mike Vrabel is sinking his 2020 season like Frank Reich did last year by sticking with his failing ex-Patriots kicker too long (last year it was Adam Vinatieri). Tennessee had the better offense and defense for the first half+ of this game, but then special teams melted and it bled into the other aspects…and the blowout was on, but it shouldn't have been.

Late 3rd-quarter, leading 17-13, Tennessee punted from deep in their own territory…a 17-yard shanked punt set up a quick Indy TD and a first time in the game Colts lead 20-17. Next series, the Titans got a punt blocked and returned for a TD…27-17 Indy. Tennessee drove down and set up for a field goal to close it to a one score game and Steven Gostkowski missed it…making him three of his last 8 FG attempts over the last six games.

Tennessee falls to (6-3) and into a tie for the AFC South, of which they just lost the tiebreaker to the Colts here. The Titans might lose at BAL, at IND the next two weeks and their season starts to get flushed down the drain. Beneficiaries of lucky/close wins early in the season – and that luck is starting to turn against them now. We project Tennessee to (9-7) now, which should be good enough to sneak into the playoffs again.

The Colts are technically in first place in the AFC South (6-3), but they do not look that great – just a beneficiary of a weak schedule so far…and then they had this game given to them by Tennessee’s miscues. We see Indy finishing with 9 wins as well but winning the AFC South with that identical record with Tennessee, but owning the tiebreaker over them. The Colts have a better chance to get to 10 wins than the Titans do, right now.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- This Colts backfield, oy vey…

Jonathan Taylor (7-12-0, 2-25-0/2) is a near-death experience now for FF…debatable on -- do drop or hold this week?

Two things on Taylor…

1) He’s the kind of back you feed 15-20+ times and pound away on opponents with. He needs a steady flow of touches, like the guy across the field from him gets. Taylor in 2020 gets treated like if the Dallas Cowboys drafted Ezekiel Elliott and then put him in a three-way RBBC. Like he’d come into the game and get a carry and then instantly run off the field, then back in 3 plays later, then out again, and back-and-forth all game long…never getting into any rhythm. You’d be confused and/or livid watching Derrick Henry or Zeke Elliott or Josh Jacobs, etc., get that treatment.

But Taylor wasn’t a 1st-round pick, so he doesn’t really matter, no one really cares. The way he should be used…he’s getting used the exact opposite. He logs three games worth of energy in one game…there’s the one game he plays on the field, then there’s the two games worth of time he’s sprinting off the field/out of the rotation and then sprinting back on…and back and forth wasting his legs all game.

The way Frank Reich is using him…near useless for Taylor or FF.

2) Current owners of Taylor in Dynasty have to be disgusted. We wasted a top draft pick on this? If you believe in Taylor for the future, not the now, and you didn’t get a chance to rookie draft…the price to acquire him is radically reduced.

A lesson, once again…these Dynasty Rookie Drafts are WAY overvalued. Everyone gives a kidney to get a high draft pick or cries when they don’t have a hot top rookie pick to make…and then these coveted rookies, halfway into their rookie season, we end up hating or are disappointed with most all of them…they cannot live up to our hype so they seem terrible (if you’re the highly vested owner).

Then they pop a year later, and non-owners of a hot rookie missed a window to acquire in their disappointing rookie season because they got scared off/lost the rookie hype on them too.

If you believe in Taylor, now is the time to shop for a bargain…not pay any price to do it -- but make someone bleed, get a deal.

 

Nyheim Hines (12-70-1, 5-45-1/6) will be the top waiver RB of the week, I can feel it. We all just saw him play well on cable television, so now ‘it’s real’.

May I caution you…Reich is going RBBC every week; you can’t bank on anything with the Colts backfield for FF. The game prior to this, Hines barely touched the ball and Jordan Wilkins (8-28-0, 0-0-0/1) was what everyone wanted. Now, it’s Hines…which will be wrong next week because Taylor will probably spike up and then everyone will believe in him, and then he’ll fail in a follow up…and round and round she goes.

Don’t get into this RBBC hell if you don’t have to.

 

 -- I don’t want any Colts offensive players, but if I had to…I guess Michael Pittman (7-101-0/8) just got my attention. I LOVE Pittman, but I didn’t think he was going to bump up to the #1 guy so fast. Parris Campbell is out. T.Y. Hilton died and went to WR heaven weeks ago. And Marcus Johnson (0-0-0/1), who I thought was the top guy for Rivers…he was benched.

Pittman is the guy, but I don’t want to have anything tied to Philip Rivers. Next week Jaire Alexander will go on Pittman, and everyone will jump off him. The schedule ahead, except Week 12 rematch with TENN looks bad for the Indy #1 WR, assuming it is Pittman now.

 

 -- Maybe I don’t want the Titans #1 WR either?

What the hell was that A.J. Brown (1-21-0/4)? A terrible title for a kid’s Christmas Cartoon and a terrible fantasy football egg at this juncture.

He actually caught his lone pass on the 2nd play of the game…and then a big fat zero the rest of the way. It was so bad, Jonathan Taylor outscored him in PPR and Standard.

What happened?

No clue, but it’s a bit distressing…but I think it’s more Xavier Rhodes (3 tackles, 1 PD) really is back in shutdown mode.

I guess, it’s not a bad time to inquire about AJB in a trade? Maybe the current owner is furious? Mostly, people seem to be of the mindset this bad week was just a blip. However, just note…two out of AJB’s last 3 games, he’s been under 25 yards receiving. He’s making one big play most weeks to save his FF scoring…but his real on-field work has been erratic, and teams are putting more coverage on him and he’s not a good enough receiver, nor is this passing game so high powered, to bust through that.

BAL and IND the next two weeks, he may get shut down two more times. Actually, I’ll take a rain check on that ‘buy low’ statement. I’ll pass for the rest of 2020.

 

 -- Speaking of things starting to fade off a little bit…Ryan Tannehill (15-27 for 147 yards, 1 TD/0 INT).

Tanny has been under 240 yards passing in five of his last 6 games…and under 240 yards in four-straight, and he’s been under 200 yards passing back-to-back weeks. When the Titans face a tough pass defense, the results are ‘low’ volume. And he’s facing BAL-IND the next two weeks. Not good.

The schedule is more favorable Week 13 on.

 

 -- Jonnu Smith (2-14-0/6, 1-1-1) is not helping the Tennessee pass game cause…or the pass game is not helping Jonnu, one or the other.

Had Jonnu not gotten that jet sweep TD run…it would have been FIVE fantasy duds in a row. The past five games, Jonnu has 1-1-2-2-2 for catches in games and less than 35 yards in all five games. Had he not run for that TD here, you’d be dropping him in regular redraft this week.

Smith got decent target volume in this game, finally, but he was rarely/never open. Indy is stout vs. the TE. Jonnu has BAL-IND the next two weeks, which is not great either.

 

 -- Rodrigo Blankenship (2/2 FGs, 4/4 XPs) has a sweet next five games of ‘conditions’ to kick in…

Week 11 = home/dome

Week 12 = home/dome

Week 13 = at HOU/dome

Week 14 = at LV/dome

Week 15 = home/dome

Then a bad Week 16…at Pittsburgh.

 

 -- I know the Titans’ DST schedule looks decent ahead, kinda-sorta…but I am joining the ‘this Titans defense sucks’ crowd. Even though there is hope with the Desmond King trade and Adoree Jackson should be back Week 11. Two problems…

Jadeveon Clowney (4 tackles, 1 TFL) is an overrated waste of space…he plays at 50% effort most of the time and has a moment here and there. He’s not a menace, he’s actually a liability.

Even worse than Clowney, and I did not pick up on it until this re-watch, but I saw something live watch that I made note of…then watched for it on the re-watch and saw it, I think.

The ‘it’ is that SAF Kenny Vaccaro (8 tackles) is mailing it in. He’s playing like Mark Barron did for the Steelers last year -- a little delayed/late to the draw, on purpose, on things to stay out of the fray. Giving up early (half speed running) or not even trying to chase after plays gone past him. Purposefully trying to get caught up into coverage so he doesn’t ‘notice’ a ballcarrier running nearby, so he doesn’t have to really pursue or is way behind the play. When he is near a play, he tackles like he’s gently putting a baby to sleep…a lot of arm tackling or grab and hold to fall to the ground with them – no real full speed blasts.

Now, I know why the Titans defense is dying…they have at least two players on the field 70%+ of the snaps who could care less/aren’t making extra effort.

 

 -- IND SAF Khari Willis (8 tackles) is on fire lately…

3.4 total tackles per game per game his first 5 games, 8.5 total tackles per game his last 4 games. Nothing I see has changed, and he’s started every game this season…just tackling a lot lately. He doesn’t stand out on tape one way or the other, but the numbers are nice of late.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest…

 

38 = D Henry

17 = McNichols

09 = Foreman

 

57 = Pittman

47 = Pascal

47 = Hilton

18 = Marcus Johnson

 

39 = Hines

17 = Taylor

14 = Wilkins

R.C. Fischer

FFM

13 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Falcons 34, Broncos 27

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

This wasn’t as close as the one score game it ended up. The Falcons punished the Broncos. It was 20-3 ATL at the half. 27-6 after three quarters. 34-13 with 9+ minutes left. The Broncos scored some garbage in the hurry up to make it closer than it was. The Broncos were missing two starting corners, which crippled them and Atlanta took advantage.

Denver had to win this game…and they failed miserably. A win would have put the Broncos (4-4) and kept wild card talk alive for weeks. Now, they’re pretty much done. They were anyway, but at least hope is fun for a while into the season. All hope is about gone in Denver.

Atlanta should be winners of their last four games, but they have won three of the four to crawl back into a long shot playoff discussion. They have played good+ ball under interim HC Raheem Morris. Their season comes down to Weeks 11-13.

Let’s play pretend…

Assuming the Saints win this week (over SF), they’ll be (7-2) and the Falcons are currently (3-6) and on a BYE. Atlanta plays NO twice (Weeks 11 and 13) ahead, and let’s say they sweep the Saints, as well as beat the Raiders in-between, let’s be far-fetched, then Atlanta would get to (6-6) with the Saints at (7-5) or (8-4) and the Falcons owning a tiebreaker over the Saints. Suddenly, the Falcons would be in the wild card and still in the divisional race.

It’s all too much of a long shot, but the table is set…if Brees gets hurt or whatever gives them some long shot hope – the Falcons at least have a path of dominos to knock down to get into the expanded playoff hunt. I think their schedule is the hardest of any NFL team Week 11 on, so we project Atlanta to win 5-6 games tops.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Re-watching this game…I just can’t.

I can’t stand Drew Lock (25-48 for 313 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 7-47-1). I can’t use him in good conscious for FF this week. He’s so bad.

Sure, he had some numbers here…but it was garbage-time, which I’ll take, but he’s so bad I don’t know if you can be assured of good garbage-time with him. He’s so inaccurate and so just forcing things where there is no reason to force too. The Broncos are going nowhere with him, nor our fantasy teams…but this week with so many QBs in question or on bye, you may have to walk this lonely road.

 

 -- Tim Patrick (4-29-1/9) is Lock’s best WR weapon, but look at the numbers – it’s indicative of their problem all year…just forced, low probability connection throws you hope Patrick makes a great play/catch on. Patrick is a flyer Flex option this week. And then the schedule is ugly the next three weeks/ROS and you will never use him.

Jerry Jeudy (7-125-1/14) had his best game…still just a 50% connection rate this game, against one of the worst secondaries of the 2020 season. It can work against bad coverage, but the schedule isn’t kind ahead.

K.J. Hamler (6-75-0/10) has a little window to maybe produce as a Flex flyer in all this…with attention to the outside WRs, Lock can play some pitch and catch in deficits/garbage time ahead. This week v. LV and Lamarcus Joyner is a great opportunity for Hamler to be the best Broncos FF WR option.

I’d love to play Noah Fant (3-34-0/3) with extreme confidence, but he is not 100%. He had a sweet catch and run 30+ yard play right off the bat but got hit low and limped off right away. He played the rest of the way but was more window dressing than weapon…I think because he’s lost his wheels some due to the injuries, for the moment. He’s not fully 100%. Still, if you don’t have Kelce-Waller…what better option do you have than the talented Fant?

 

 -- The Broncos’ RBs did nothing in this game, but you have to note the Falcons are the #7 run defense (by yards per game allowed) in 2020. They’re pretty strong against the run, and it helps that teams just throw all over them as the alternative.

It will be interesting to see if they hold Alvin Kamara down in Weeks 11 and 13…or whether the Falcons just get exposed by the AK experience. Atlanta has held down RBs more than not…but more on the rushing side, not the pass game side.

 

 -- You hate Todd Gurley (19-53-1, 2-2-0/2), I hate Todd Gurley…he’s boring and not anything like he used to be. However, we need to respect him. In this era where every RB sucks/is in some kind of weird RBBC/hot hand or hurt…Gurley has played every game and is the #12 RB in PPR PPG (5 or more games played) this season. An RB1.

Gurley is ALWAYS the lead and is always finding the end zone with his boring rushing totals. That’s better than boring rushing totals and no TDs like most all other RBs.

Only Dalvin Cook (12) has more rushing TDs this season than Gurley (9).

 

 -- With Calvin Ridley out, Olamide Zaccheaus (4-103-1/6) had maybe his best game of his career…not ‘maybe’, he did.

He had a one-handed catch for a big 1st-down conversion early. Soon after, a bomb 51-yard TD, a little later almost another 50+ yard TD but he got tripped up by his shoestrings for just a 40+ yard gain.

It was his best game as a pro, but actually we could say it was his best half ever. All his damage came in the 1st-half, then Matt Ryan inexplicably went to sleep on it. Zaccheaus gives the Falcons more firepower but Matt Ryan is constantly looking for Julio or Calvin and everyone else is a random event.

 

 -- Matt Ryan is looking more for Hayden Hurst (7-62-1/6), as we’ve been noting for several weeks.

On the season, Hurst is now the #7 PPR PPG TE scorer in fantasy.

Since Week 6, Hurst is #4 in PPR PPG among TEs…just behind George Kittle (who is now gone)…and Just ahead of Gronk and Waller.

 

 -- Foye Oluokun (10 tackles, 1.0 sack, 1 TFL,1 PD) is always doing something to get our IDP attention. Not only 10 tackles here, but 4 QB hits…his first 4 of the year, as Morris unleashed him that way this game. A new wrinkle…which led to his first sack of the season.

Since Week 2, Oluokun is the #8 DB in PPG among LBs this season.

The Falcons-DST has really been solid under Raheem Morris, but you cannot use them for FF at all the ROS…they face a murder’s row of QBs/offenses the rest of the way: Brees, Carr, Brees, Herbert, Brady, Mahomes, Brady.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

44 = Gurley

19 = Br Hill

 

63 = Julio

52 = Zaccheaus

 

44 = Gordon

28 = Lindsay

 

57 = Fant

15 = Albert O. (ACL/done)

R.C. Fischer

FFM

13 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Raiders 31, Chargers 26

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

Another game where the Chargers lead early (17-14 at the half) and then find a way to lose in the end. This time a muffed punt with 8+ minutes left to go set them back from the momentum they had just stolen, but they still had three shots at a game-winning TD in the final 0:07, and the receivers had their hands on the ball/the scores but just couldn’t come down with the legal catch multiple times.

Thank you, God, for Anthony Lynn…a team with a top 5 QB in the NFL is always winning big early and then ends up losing – my over/under win total ‘under’ 7.5 wins is getting closer to locking in. LAC is now (2-6), where they should/could be at least (7-1). I love this losing for fantasy/dynasty purposes as well – I’ll not only win my ‘under’ bet but with each loss we move closer to Anthony Lynn fired…and then for LAC to hire a coach that will aid Justin Herbert (Joe Brady, perhaps?) into the future.

Also, props to the Lord for my Raiders make the playoff proclamations in the preseason – they are now (5-3) and have a very good chance at 10 wins and a nice wild card berth.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- What about this Chargers’ backfield?

Justin Jackson was in on the first play, Justin Herbert faked it to him on a read option and took off with it…but JJax still got lit up by a tackler who thought JJ had the ball – the hit took him out of the game (I think he did return for a snap or two but basically was gone) and you got a one snap/play and out, zero FF points effort from Jackson (sounds like an FFM guy for sure!).

Josh Kelley (9-28-0, 5-31-0/5) entered the game immediately and the 1st-series ended with a quick punt.

2nd-Series for LAC, we saw rookie WR Joe Reed (2-7-0, 0-0-0/1) take a jet sweep (their version of Deebo, is Reed). Then, out of nowhere (who I forgot he was even with the team), emerged Kalen Ballage (15-69-1, 2-15-0/3) for a touch…then another…then another…then another. Joe Reed took another running play from WR spot, and the drive ended with a missed FG.

From that point on it was Kalen Ballage like he’d been the Chargers lead back for years, looking as athletic as I’ve seen him look, and he led the way with Kelley playing 50/50 snaps but not touching the ball – whereas Ballage got most of the RB work/touches.

Justin Jackson is likely out for Week 10.

Josh Kelley is in the doghouse…he was ditched for Ballage in a hot second in this game. He might be a 3-7 touches option Week 10.

Troymaine Pope will be back this week and can be the 3rd-down/hurry up offense back, an Austin Ekeler option.

But I think Ballage is going to lead the backfield this week, and next. Why? The Kalen Ballage revenge tour…

Week 10 vs. MIA…the team that started him in 2019 and then tried to trade him but then had to cut him in 2020.

Week 11 vs. NYJ…the team that tried to trade for him, but he failed a physical, then they added him to the roster and used him for a bit but then waived him as well.

Why not? It’s 2020…why not Ballage as a great fantasy option for no reason…just at the time his team is playing the teams that dissed him.

 

 -- You’d think there would be nothing to talk about RB-wise on the other side of this game. Vegas is Josh Jacobs (14-65-1, 1-3-0/1) territory!!

Ummm…except for the part of the story where Devontae Booker (8-68-1) keeps getting a few more carries each week, playing a few more snaps, and looks more explosive than Jacobs.

Booker took a season-high 8 carries for a season-high 68 yards and a sweet 20+ yard TD run in this game – getting good work in a game that was back-and-forth, this wasn’t garbage time. Booker is only averaging 6.8 yards per carry…the best rate of any RB in the NFL with 30 or more carries this season to date.

There’s no way the Raiders have the guts to start working a split here. They’re too vested into Josh Jacobs and wouldn’t want to hurt his ego – that’s the thing when you stupidly marry yourself to one workhorse back…now, you’re stuck. Now they’ll not give more touches to something really working hot (like Booker), to see if it is real and can be better (and maybe it wouldn’t if defenses played Booker like they play Jacobs), all because they don’t want to hurt Jacobs’ feelings. And some of it because they don’t want to reveal that it might have been a bad business decision to waste a 1st-round pick on an average-good RB…a top-pick RB being outplayed by someone they picked up off the streets earlier this year.

That aside, we’ll see where this is going. Like I said months ago, Booker is the Jacobs handcuff…and if JJ ever got hurt right now, Booker’s stock would skyrocket.

Let’s see how many touches Booker gets Week 10…if he gets 10+ in a real game, not garbage time or because of a Jacobs injury, then Gruden does have some guts.

The best man wins the job is what they say in the NFL every training camp – but only true if it’s not a low-profile guy working better than a high-profile skill position guy. That type of news we have to hide from the public (fake news). We’ll see which way Gruden takes this in Week 10.

 

 -- Just a quick note, Justin Herbert (28-42 for 326 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 5-24-0) is still awesome. And an additional note, he should have had a 3rd and 4th TD pass in this game if any of his non-Keenan’s could hold onto the passes that he laid on their hands in the end zone multiple times in-game.

Since Week 4, Herbert is the #2 FF QB in PPG scoring in fantasy (Kyler #1).

 

 -- Mike Williams (5-81-0/7) was one of the guys who couldn’t hold onto a TD pass in the end zone this game. Williams had for a moment and then lost the game winner on the second-to-last throw by Herbert. He also had his hands on another end zone shot earlier in the game, but it was about an inch too far and MW couldn’t reel it in.

I will say this – I’ve never seen Williams so active, looking so spry on the field. They are starting to move him around and not just send him deep every play. And given he’s working with the golden prospect in Herbert – the fantasy numbers are starting to get consistent.

You want the #2 WR on the team with the #2 best passer in the NFL.

Imagine when Herbert gets more experienced in the league…

 

 -- Nelson Agholor (2-55-1/3) DID hold onto his end zone shot this game. Four TDs in his last 5 games. He is the Raiders’ #1 WR…but sadly that has meant 4-2-9-2-3 for targets since he became a starter/new #1 the past 5 games. He’s producing in the limited targets, but that’s hard to sustain for FF with such low targeting.

With such a non-interest in the WRs in general by this offense…and if Agholor is the new #1 WR…then rookies Ruggs-Edwards are all but about useless ahead. Ruggs had no catches on 3 targets in this game.

Edwards seems to be headed for a massive rise (preseason) and now a massive fall from grace in fantasy. I was his #1 fan, but I’m getting rid of him where I need to/can’t wait around. I still think he’s a talent, but I don’t want to waste time with a random WR in this offense. Hopefully, 2021 has a new QB and outlook for Edwards -- but Gruden will still be there I’m guessing?

 

 -- From my Three Things/Five Player Report the last few weeks…

About Daniel Carlson (1/1 FG, 4/4 XP):

One of the top kickers in FF in 2020. Dropped by many, including me (but picked back up by many Week 9), for fear of the wind gusts in Cleveland Week 8…but he ended up making 3 FGs anyway. Here’s the thing…the schedule ahead is awesome for a kicker in the winter…

Week 10 = home/dome v. DEN

Week 11 = home/dome v. KC

Week 12 = at ATL/dome

Week 13 = at NYJ…unfavorable, outdoors, cold.

Week 14 = home/dome v. IND

Week 15 = home/dome v. LAC

Week 16 = home/dome v. MIA

Week 17 = at DEN altitude.

Six dome events in his next 8 games. One of the two not in a dome is in California.

 

 -- I’m ready to quit the LAC-DST…they look amazing the first half of games and then terrible the second half. They are also dying/missing Joey Bosa and Chris Harris. When they come back, I’ll pay attention more.

I want to quit LAC-DST, but Week 11 v. NYJ could keep me around. I think Week 10 at MIA could be nice too, I just wish Bosa and Harris would get back, but that may not be until Week 11.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

43 = Kelley

31 = Ballage

03 = JJackson

 

28 = Jacobs

13 = Booker

09 = Richard

R.C. Fischer

FFM

13 November 2020

2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 9 Game Analysis: Giants 23, Redskins 20

 

I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.

 

I had forgotten the Giants led this game 20-3 at halftime. The Giants ‘stormed’ out of the gates and Kyle Allen got hurt early and it seemed like NYG was going to run away with things. Then Alex Smith led a comeback despite throwing 3 interceptions and with 10+ minutes left it was 23-20 NYG.

The two teams battled with good defense and general offensive ineptitude for the final 10 minutes with neither team scoring and NYG holding on (or given the game by Smith) for a ‘huge’ win to draw them into the NFC East title hunt with a massive game Week 10 vs. Philly.

The Giants are (2-7) and sit one win/3 losses behind the Eagles (3-4-1). If NYG can beat Philly Week 10, they’d close the gap to one win away from jumping past Philly into 1st-place. If the Giants lose this week, they are done. If NYG can win Week 10, I see a path to (6-10) and that could beat out Philly for the NFC East title. The Eagles have a tough schedule ahead.

Washington is actually still in this race too, but they need NYG to beat the Eagles Week 10 and then for NYG to fall apart from there…as the Giants hold a tiebreaker over Washington with this second head-to-head win over them. Washington has a path to 6 wins as well.

None of the NFC East teams are good, and Philly is in the best position, but any one of the four teams can still win it.

 

 

Fantasy Player Notes…

 

 -- Alex Smith (24-32 for 325 yards, 1 TD/3 INT) looked shaky, but then had moments of the old/solid Smith...he threw for 300+ years here, so that’s impressive…but also had 3 picks, and nearly/should’ve been 4-5 picks, and that’s not like him. What do we make of this?

I think Smith is still a bit ‘off’ from all of his time away, and he’s looked more jumpy than not in his two appearances this season -- but there were signs of his old self starting to show through as this game wore on. Maybe he just needs another week or two to get back into a groove. And him in the groove isn’t anything special for FF, but it’s better than Haskins-Allen and it does help all the surrounding weapons.

Still, my vision/memory of Smith this season of play is a guy skittish and just throwing passes to avoid contact and making mistakes doing it. Smith used to not go a season and throw 3 picks…he had 3 this game and was lucky to not have 4-5-6 of them.

 

Weapons report for Washington:

1) Terry McLaurin (7-115-1/8) caught an ill-advised Smith pass throw into coverage that caused two defenders to knock into each other and McLaurin slipped out of the chaos off the medium throw/catch to race away for a 68-yard TD. The pass should’ve never been thrown. It should’ve been picked. It should’ve been a 10-yard pass at best…but it became a huge play that juiced all the numbers.

McLaurin was fine before Smith and is fine with Smith.

 

2) J.D. McKissic (9-65-0/14) is a huge winner…14 targets!! Smith LOVES dumping passes to the running back and that’s what McKissic was built for.

Just note, in this game…McKissic was in-line for a 10th catch but tripped on his route and fell as the pass was heading his way. An easy 1.5 points lost. Also, one of his catches was a catch-and-run tightrope breakaway run down the sidelines for a TD but it got called back for stepping out of bounds, but on the replay it looked fine/too close to call…but it went against him. 8 more points lost by a hair. He nearly had a 20+ PPR event here.

Given the state of FF RBs, McKissic could be a PPR RB1 going forward with Dump Pass Master Jay, Alex Smith (who has thrown 35% of his 2020 passes to McKissic). I feel like I’ve written about McKissic’s hidden value since August (big discussion on the Podfather’s podcast) – and now finally the national analysts are talking about it.

McKissic is 4th in catches by an RB (34) this season and is likely to finish 2nd to Alvin Kamara by season’s end. Since Week 4, he’s averaged 6.0 catches per game.

 

3) Cam Sims (3-110-0/4)…I take back my Monday dismissal of him. He was a near ‘wow’ player in this game.

Sims has bounced around Washington’s practice squad for years. Never making it to the big club but for a couple cups of coffee, and then he’ll have a play that gets people excited and then he doesn’t follow it up with anything. He’s been a preseason star but not an NFL one. Unreliable hands.

However, he’s 6’4/220+…he looks like a tight end playing WR. He’s a physical presence. But I saw in this game an extra bounce in his step I had not seen prior. His work after the catch was inspiring for his size. He was pulling away from people and cutting/juking away from them.

Honestly, I was stunned watching this. He looked fantastic. He looked like Mike Williams (LAC), if Mike Williams had better foot speed.

Sims made all his catches and some tougher ones. No gaffes that have haunted him prior.

I don’t know where we go from here, but he looks like someone that is ready to be the #2 here…and with McLaurin getting all the attention in coverage…Sims can pop like he did here. Sims started this game, so Ron Rivera must have some faith/hope.

The most impressive WR that I saw the past two weeks, on the ‘out of nowhere’/low on the radar type of WRs…not DeMichael Harris (IND) or Denzel Mims or Marvin Hall, etc., it was Cam Sims this game. Of the battle of Steve Sims vs. Cam Sims…now, the Sims I want is Cam Sims.

Welcome to 2020.

Where we go from here is a mystery -- this could've been a little blip that doesn't have any follow through, or this Week 9 was the beginning of something WR3-nice with upside. Sims has never been projected as a consistent thing, so Week 10 will be a fresh clue how this might go. I think Washington may be onto something...but this passing game is not great.

 

 -- I take back my Monday dismissal of Cam Sims, but I reserve the right to reapply it next week…but, honestly, I am intrigued by what I saw with Cam Sims/2020. However, I’m not taking back my Austin Mack (4-72-0/5) dismissal.

Mack is OK…but being OK behind Shephard-Engram-Slayton working with Daniel Jones will get you nowhere fast in fantasy. He started because Golden Tate was benched. Tate comes back and Mack goes back to #4 WR status.

No, thanks.

 

 -- You hated on Evan Engram (5-48-1/10) early in the season but guess what? He’s now a TE1 in PPR PPG YTD (#12 in PPR PPG among TEs with 5+ games played).

Over the past three weeks, he’s the #3 TE in PPR PPG…ahead of Darren Waller.

Great matchup with Philly Week 10!

 

 -- Speaking of Giants things that you don’t trust…

FYI, Wayne Gallman (14-68-1, 1-9-0/2) is the #9 non-PPR PPG RB in fantasy since Week 7 (2 or more games played)…which is his time period since he became a ‘starter’. He’s scored a TD in three straight games.

Devonta Freeman is not able to get back/healed still, so Gallman goes for four-in-a-row for TDs scored in Week 10. In the broken-down state of fantasy RBs…Gallman has been a strong RB1 for three weeks running.

 

 -- IDPs of note…

Jabrill Peppers (6 tackles, 5 PDs) is playing fantastic football of late. 6.6 tackles, 0.8 PDs, 0.3 TFLs per game his past 6 games. He’s become a DB1 in that span. On top of that, as I’ve mentioned for a few weeks now, he looks terrific on tape. He’s playing at another gear…like a player wanting to be paid in the offseason.

He’s been in the league 4 years, but just turned 25 years old last month.

Rookie SAF Kamren Curl (11 tackles, 1 sack) seems to be a new starter option for Washington. Lots of tackles, but I didn’t see any wow factor here. I’m not sure he’ll be a starter for long.

My man, WAS LB Cole Holcomb (7 tackles, 1 TFL) – 3rd start in a row, played a season high 90% of the snaps. He’s averaging 6.0 total tackles and 1.0 TFLs and 0.3 PDs per game in his three starts…and he’s only getting better! Please, Ron, don’t take him IDP-away from me again!!

 

 -- What about these DSTs? I stick by my guidance for most of this season – these are top 10 defensive units working with horrible offenses but have a lot of schedule gold because they have to play the other NFC East teams a bunch.

Season-to-date…Washington is the #11 PPG scoring DST. But the Giants are #9.

Since Week 4, Washington is #10 in PPG among DSTs. But the Giants are #6.

Washington has the elite D-Line/pass rush, but the Giants have the better overall defensive unit. Which all doesn’t really matter because it’s more ‘who are they playing?’ that matters.

The Giants schedule turns dark after Week 10…no more NFC East teams to face until Week 17. The Giants are an OK start v. PHI, and then you’re done.

I like Washington-DST better. You know why? Because of the sneaky pairing that is available the ROS…pairing with, of all DSTs, Seattle.

Week 10 = WSH at DET

Week 11 = WSH v. CIN (burrow, but bad O-Line)

Week 12 = WSH at DAL or SEA at PHI

Week 13 = SEA v. NYG

Week 14 = SEA v. NYJ or WSH at SF

Week 15 = SEA at WSH

Week 16 = not great matchups for either, we’ll get one ahead for tricky Week 16.

Scared of Seattle’s DST? Don’t be (or do, but be scared of all DSTs) – most all that matters with DST is the opponent, not what you think of their roster. If they get a key injury, like with any DST, we’ll have to re-assess…but SEA has at PHI, NYG, NYJ, at WSH four weeks in a row from Weeks 12-15, which is AMAZING for FF. AND I’m seeing Seattle-DST dropped in a lot of places now.

Seattle is going to get some secondary healthy ahead…just got Jamal Adams back…and traded for Carlos Dunlap, who had some impact last week.

Get in ahead on SEA before FF analysts magically discover this…if you don’t have a great plan ahead at DST otherwise.

 

 

Snap Counts of Interest:

 

53 = McLaurin

40 = Cam Sims

16 = Steven Sims

 

45 = McKissic

25 = Ant Gibson

 

44 = Gallman

17 = D Lewis

16 = Alf Morris

R.C. Fischer

FFM

12 November 2020