- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Broncos 20, Dolphins 13
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The blueprint for beating Miami…get a lead and try and make hapless Tua Tagovailoa try and close the gap/take the lead back. Basically, if Miami’s defense doesn’t get turnovers and set up Tua in great field position and/or just add defensive scores…Miami is likely going to lose.
The same can be said for the Broncos. In fact, watching this game – I felt like I was watching the two worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. At least one head coach in this game agreed with me, as Brian Flores benched his starter it was so bad. Uhhh, I mean he was injured (wink-wink).
Drew Lock was bad, but Denver ran the ball well and took the lead and just held it from the 2nd-quarter on. In fact, Denver was heading in for a TD with 5+ minutes remaining, which would have given them a 14 point lead, but Melvin Gordon fumbled as he was struggling to cross the goal line and Miami got the key turnover to get one last shot/drive…with Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick did drive it all the way down the field, but with 15 yards to go, Fitz tried to fit one I to DeVante Parker, but it got picked and…ball game. Fitz provided the only competent QB play in this game. It’s so obvious both of these guys (Tua and Lock) are not legit NFL starters that will be winning QBs…but Tua was named starter again for Week 12 because Brian Flores is insane picking offensive players to do things.
Miami stumbles to (6-4) and the public is left with a lot of questions… is Tua the one who should start? Why did the media lie about Tua for the past few weeks (…on how well he was supposedly playing) and why did they all lie for years about him (easy answer = he played at Alabama, and that’s good enough scouting so the national analysts can go workout at the gym for hours and/or go to expensive dinners out with their giant paychecks for their football analysis…anything but put real time into studying the game and it’s players). I don’t mean that jab as a class envy thing – I mean that as a jab at how little effort they put into something that everyone unwaveringly trusts them for.
Listening to a national analyst discuss football talent is like taking a car to a mechanic who has never really worked on a car or studied auto mechanics before, but they have driven a car a lot…so, good enough.
Miami has two layups ahead…at NYJ and CIN. They should get to (8-4) and then problems arise on the schedule: KC, NE, at LV, at BUF. (8-8) is possible for Miami, but they should get to (9-7) and have a chance at the playoffs…and then I would assume it would be because of a move back to Ryan Fitz that they got a shot at the wild card.
Denver is now (4-6) but their schedule is about to crush them to a possible six-game losing streak to end the season. They probably steal a game and go (5-11) and contemplate their QB and head coach…maybe.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- As previously mentioned, what a terrible game of QB play. If I had to pick one of these guys for my NFL team, I’d go with Tua (11-20 for 83 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) because he isn’t as apt to throw constant turnovers. However, Tua doesn’t create any offense wither…so, I better get a lead and sit on it with Tua. Lock is more likely to make a play to get his team down the field but that is very few and far between. Mostly, Lock just throws to the other team.
For the season, 7 TD passes and 11 INTs for Lock in 7 full games played. That’s embarrassing in this era. He’s not getting better, not even close. He cannot read/see the defenses or coverage and he throws right into danger constantly.
Tua has the opposite issue. He has an offense designed for him that is high school simplistic to keep him out of having to make real throws. In a 0-10 yards passing zone/range, Tua can work – but teams are already figuring this out and are also coming after his constant roll out to his left, as I predicted would happen…and he simply cannot sit in the pocket and make throws longer than 5-10 yards with any confidence. He has poor arm strength and doesn’t process things fast enough for the NFL…he had much more time to throw/process at Alabama.
Both of these guys are frauds.
The best single throw in this game between them was, I swear this to be the truth, was the last play with seconds remaining and Drew Lock just heaved it deep to get it incomplete but the air time would allow the clock to expire. However, Tim Patrick was going deep and kept sprinting after it and somehow caught up to the pass. Even Drew Lock was shocked.
It was a 61-yard completion. Had that not occurred, these two guys would have combined for 292 yards passing and a little over 55%+ Completion Percentage.
It’s possible Tua misses Week 12 with “an injury” and that provides cover for Flores to start Fitz. That would help DeVante Parker (6-61-1/9) for fantasy greatly.
-- So, with that -- take note…the fact that Tim Patrick (5-119-0/8) had a 119 yard day…61 of it was nonsense at the end. His real activity was 4-57-0/7.
-- Speaking of terrible… How is it that Salvon Ahmed (12-43-0, 5-31-0/6) is a ‘pushed’ starting RB in the NFL, a main carry guy with good targets for an NFL team…and Phillip Lindsay (16-82-0) splits time with Melvin Gordon (15-84-2) and doesn’t get any passes throw his way in games ever?
Lindsay is the best runner that was on the field this day, and the best RB receiver as well…and for all that, he’s an ignored split role/backup type RB.
You wonder why Denver is so bad…it’s more than just awful Drew Lock.
I want to get more excited by Lindsay for FF, but how can you when he gets no TDs or targets?
-- Miami rookie UDFA Malcolm Perry (3-23-0/5) is a former top running-QB for the Navy Wishbone system, turned WR/RB for the NFL.
Perry is the perfect Brian Flores guy…limited talent, but a yes, sir/no, sir football captain at Navy – Flores likes to play underdog grinders who have limited talent. It’s going to catch up to him. It’s going to keep them out of the playoffs if he’s not careful.
Perry is working towards becoming a starter as a slot WR now. 78% of the snaps played this game. 2.5 rec., 22.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game the last two games play more snaps/getting more touches.
Perry is limited, as is Tua…so, this won’t matter much for FF…except Tua can only throw in the range a guy like Perry will be in. So, you might get a few 6-7 catch, 40-50 yards games with no TDs pop up between them.
-- Denver TD DeShawn Williams (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks) had two sacks in this game, and I was like…who is this? Not because he was so good, but because I wanted to know more…I was literally like – who is this? I don’t even know/remember him?
He had two sacks but they were more ‘in the neighborhood’ type sacks. Nothing to see here for IDP, I don’t believe.
-- The Miami-DST is a gift that continues to give. Not only do they have the Jets this week, but now the Week 13 Cincinnati game looks 10x better without Burrow. You can use Miami Weeks 12-13, and 15. You gotta find a DST for Week 14 (KC) and Week 16 (LV).
YTD the Dolphins-DST is #4 in DST PPG.
Since Week 4, they are #2 in PPG behind the Steelers.
Snap Counts of Interest:
49 = Fant
41 = Vannett
20 = Fumagalli
63 = D Parker
55 = JK Grant
51 = M Perry
43 = Ahmed
17 = Laird
07 = Breida
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 6 Game Analysis: Broncos 20, Dolphins 13
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The blueprint for beating Miami…get a lead and try and make hapless Tua Tagovailoa try and close the gap/take the lead back. Basically, if Miami’s defense doesn’t get turnovers and set up Tua in great field position and/or just add defensive scores…Miami is likely going to lose.
The same can be said for the Broncos. In fact, watching this game – I felt like I was watching the two worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. At least one head coach in this game agreed with me, as Brian Flores benched his starter it was so bad. Uhhh, I mean he was injured (wink-wink).
Drew Lock was bad, but Denver ran the ball well and took the lead and just held it from the 2nd-quarter on. In fact, Denver was heading in for a TD with 5+ minutes remaining, which would have given them a 14 point lead, but Melvin Gordon fumbled as he was struggling to cross the goal line and Miami got the key turnover to get one last shot/drive…with Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick did drive it all the way down the field, but with 15 yards to go, Fitz tried to fit one I to DeVante Parker, but it got picked and…ball game. Fitz provided the only competent QB play in this game. It’s so obvious both of these guys (Tua and Lock) are not legit NFL starters that will be winning QBs…but Tua was named starter again for Week 12 because Brian Flores is insane picking offensive players to do things.
Miami stumbles to (6-4) and the public is left with a lot of questions… is Tua the one who should start? Why did the media lie about Tua for the past few weeks (…on how well he was supposedly playing) and why did they all lie for years about him (easy answer = he played at Alabama, and that’s good enough scouting so the national analysts can go workout at the gym for hours and/or go to expensive dinners out with their giant paychecks for their football analysis…anything but put real time into studying the game and it’s players). I don’t mean that jab as a class envy thing – I mean that as a jab at how little effort they put into something that everyone unwaveringly trusts them for.
Listening to a national analyst discuss football talent is like taking a car to a mechanic who has never really worked on a car or studied auto mechanics before, but they have driven a car a lot…so, good enough.
Miami has two layups ahead…at NYJ and CIN. They should get to (8-4) and then problems arise on the schedule: KC, NE, at LV, at BUF. (8-8) is possible for Miami, but they should get to (9-7) and have a chance at the playoffs…and then I would assume it would be because of a move back to Ryan Fitz that they got a shot at the wild card.
Denver is now (4-6) but their schedule is about to crush them to a possible six-game losing streak to end the season. They probably steal a game and go (5-11) and contemplate their QB and head coach…maybe.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- As previously mentioned, what a terrible game of QB play. If I had to pick one of these guys for my NFL team, I’d go with Tua (11-20 for 83 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) because he isn’t as apt to throw constant turnovers. However, Tua doesn’t create any offense wither…so, I better get a lead and sit on it with Tua. Lock is more likely to make a play to get his team down the field but that is very few and far between. Mostly, Lock just throws to the other team.
For the season, 7 TD passes and 11 INTs for Lock in 7 full games played. That’s embarrassing in this era. He’s not getting better, not even close. He cannot read/see the defenses or coverage and he throws right into danger constantly.
Tua has the opposite issue. He has an offense designed for him that is high school simplistic to keep him out of having to make real throws. In a 0-10 yards passing zone/range, Tua can work – but teams are already figuring this out and are also coming after his constant roll out to his left, as I predicted would happen…and he simply cannot sit in the pocket and make throws longer than 5-10 yards with any confidence. He has poor arm strength and doesn’t process things fast enough for the NFL…he had much more time to throw/process at Alabama.
Both of these guys are frauds.
The best single throw in this game between them was, I swear this to be the truth, was the last play with seconds remaining and Drew Lock just heaved it deep to get it incomplete but the air time would allow the clock to expire. However, Tim Patrick was going deep and kept sprinting after it and somehow caught up to the pass. Even Drew Lock was shocked.
It was a 61-yard completion. Had that not occurred, these two guys would have combined for 292 yards passing and a little over 55%+ Completion Percentage.
It’s possible Tua misses Week 12 with “an injury” and that provides cover for Flores to start Fitz. That would help DeVante Parker (6-61-1/9) for fantasy greatly.
-- So, with that -- take note…the fact that Tim Patrick (5-119-0/8) had a 119 yard day…61 of it was nonsense at the end. His real activity was 4-57-0/7.
-- Speaking of terrible… How is it that Salvon Ahmed (12-43-0, 5-31-0/6) is a ‘pushed’ starting RB in the NFL, a main carry guy with good targets for an NFL team…and Phillip Lindsay (16-82-0) splits time with Melvin Gordon (15-84-2) and doesn’t get any passes throw his way in games ever?
Lindsay is the best runner that was on the field this day, and the best RB receiver as well…and for all that, he’s an ignored split role/backup type RB.
You wonder why Denver is so bad…it’s more than just awful Drew Lock.
I want to get more excited by Lindsay for FF, but how can you when he gets no TDs or targets?
-- Miami rookie UDFA Malcolm Perry (3-23-0/5) is a former top running-QB for the Navy Wishbone system, turned WR/RB for the NFL.
Perry is the perfect Brian Flores guy…limited talent, but a yes, sir/no, sir football captain at Navy – Flores likes to play underdog grinders who have limited talent. It’s going to catch up to him. It’s going to keep them out of the playoffs if he’s not careful.
Perry is working towards becoming a starter as a slot WR now. 78% of the snaps played this game. 2.5 rec., 22.0 yards, 0.0 TDs per game the last two games play more snaps/getting more touches.
Perry is limited, as is Tua…so, this won’t matter much for FF…except Tua can only throw in the range a guy like Perry will be in. So, you might get a few 6-7 catch, 40-50 yards games with no TDs pop up between them.
-- Denver TD DeShawn Williams (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks) had two sacks in this game, and I was like…who is this? Not because he was so good, but because I wanted to know more…I was literally like – who is this? I don’t even know/remember him?
He had two sacks but they were more ‘in the neighborhood’ type sacks. Nothing to see here for IDP, I don’t believe.
-- The Miami-DST is a gift that continues to give. Not only do they have the Jets this week, but now the Week 13 Cincinnati game looks 10x better without Burrow. You can use Miami Weeks 12-13, and 15. You gotta find a DST for Week 14 (KC) and Week 16 (LV).
YTD the Dolphins-DST is #4 in DST PPG.
Since Week 4, they are #2 in PPG behind the Steelers.
Snap Counts of Interest:
49 = Fant
41 = Vannett
20 = Fumagalli
63 = D Parker
55 = JK Grant
51 = M Perry
43 = Ahmed
17 = Laird
07 = Breida
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Texans 27, Patriots 20
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
I’m not sure what ‘truth’ is to be ascertained from this game… Is it the Texans are getting better/good? Or is it that the Patriots are nowhere near as good as we all think/the name evokes? Week 9…the Texans barely slipped past Jake Luton’s debut. Week 10, they didn’t even show up at Cleveland. Then they beat the Patriots and people want to make Deshaun Watson an MVP candidate all of a sudden.
The Patriots were falling apart a few weeks ago, and then luckily beat the only winless team in football…then beat the Ravens in a monsoon – and heading into this game, we were supposed to think they were the greatest?
Both teams played well enough to win, but the vaunted Patriots defense struggled again…and when the Texans took a 14-10 lead late 2nd-quarter…they never relinquished it. The Texans had two wins coming into this game…both over Jacksonville. Here, they beat the Patriots…not in a fluky way. I think it says more about the Patriots than the Texans.
New England drops to (4-6) and are lucky to not be on a six-game losing streak. Massive gut check game for two teams at NE this week – Arizona at New England. After that game, the Patriots have a terrible road schedule…two L.A. games back-to-back then all the way to the 2nd-worst place for a road team to play in 2020 – at Miami. We project the Patriots to 6 wins, 7 tops.
Houston is now (3-7). My ‘over’ bet on them to get above 7.5 wins is looking bleak, but this kept the candle lit for a miracle. IF they can win at Detroit on Thanksgiving…I got a Cincy game Week 16 looming, so that’s five wins I can identify. But they’d still need to win three of their other 4…including two games with Indy. My projection is Houston finishes with 6 wins.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- First up, retribution for my Jordan Akins (5-83-0/6) scouting this season. He got back to his PPR TE1 ways here. He looked terrific…like his old (Weeks 1-4) self. He’s back to being a TE1 threat for sure in PPR.
Also note, the one misconnect throw between him and Watson…an easy 28-yard TD Akins sprinted open on and Watson led him just a bit too far or he races in for a nice TD.
He only played 50% of the snaps here, but he’s still getting back from missing weeks with injury. He may go 60-70% this week, his normal range and be a 5+ catch, 50+ yards, threat.
-- Patriots RB notes…
Damien Harris (11-43-1, 1-11-0/2) ran the ball here like a premier #1 RB for an NFL team. The sad part was that Belichick took the early lead behind Harris…then forgot about him the rest of the game and lost. They should’ve just run Harris 20+ times and they would have walked away with this game. Honestly, this was an awful display of coaching by the master. Even the locals were miffed.
I want to push Harris higher for projections, but Belichick is not giving into this fully…and I don’t know what will happen when Sony Michel gets activated.
Rex Burkhead is out for the season, most likely, with an injury sustained in this game. That opened up room for James White (5-19-0, 6-64-0/9) to have his highest snap count game of the year. White is a useful PPR back ahead…maybe. We don’t know what the plan is when Michel returns, or what Belichick does week-to-week with RBs anyway.
-- Big dip for Jakob Meyers (3-38-0/3), which I expected due to Bradley Roby covering him…but I didn’t see Roby on him all the time. And when I saw N’Keal Harry (5-41-0/8) get better targets and Damiere Byrd (6-132-1/7) have a day…it made me pause my current FF enthusiasm for Meyers. I’m still 100% on board with Jakobi as a technical WR talent…but I don’t trust Cam, and Cam just gave me reason to worry about the luscious over-targeting of Meyers week-to-week. Honestly, I don’t know which way the targeting goes Week 12…will Meyers see 5-6 targets or get back to 10+? Not sure. Did I mention, I do not like Cam for my FF WRs?
I’m not buying the Byrd uprising…because of Cam. I’m not into Harry either, not because of Cam, but because of Harry looking soft…but Cam doesn’t help it either.
-- Deshaun Watson (28-37 for 344 yards, 2 TDs, 6-36-1) is starting to rack numbers better than his play looks to me on tape. Five 300+ yard passing games in his last 7 games…and one of the two non-300+ games in that span was a cold/windy day at CLE.
Deshaun is averaging 259.2 yards passing on the road/outside, and 317.4 yards per game at home…in a dome. He’s on the road v. DET, but in a dome on Thanksgiving. I think the ‘indoors’ part is the key and Deshaun hits big again this week.
I haven’t been a fan of his 2020 work for the NFL, but I cannot argue with the FF tallies lately.
-- Keke Coutee (2-10-1/4) and Watson used to have a nice PPR thing going back a few years ago when Coutee rose to slot WR starter, but then Coutee got hurt and fell out of favor with Bill O’Brien. He’ll be starting the next game at least in the slot for Randall Cobb. He might get some decent targeting.
Coutee is just too injury prone for my taste.
-- Duke Johnson (10-15-0, 3-20-0/5) is terrible, and his play is begging for an RB to take over…but C.J. Prosise (3-4-0, 2-8-0/2) is doing nothing with his touches to get him more/future opportunities. David Johnson will walk right back to a starting role Week 13.
-- I’ve highlighted Pats rookie SAF Kyle Dugger (6 tackles, 1 TFL) several times the past few weeks. Two more notes here…
1) 75%+ snap share played in his last two games and he’s a starter now (both games). 9.0 total tackles per game as a starter.
2) He’s listed as a safety, but he is playing a lot of outside linebacker…which is going to be great for IDP tallies. He could be a top 10 DB the rest of the season.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
47 = Duke Johnson
15 = Prosise
31 = Akins
27 = Ph Brown
21 = Fells
39 = White
26 = D Harris
12 = Rex
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Cowboys 31, Vikings 28
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Vikings didn’t play too poorly here in defeat, but Dallas played well and got more breaks and won. Not that Dallas only won because of the breaks…more, I’m saying that both these teams played decent football. Minnesota didn’t ‘lose it’ to ‘sad’ Dallas…the Cowboys played toe-to-toe, in a must-win game for both teams. The Vikings had been rolling and Dallas was losing, so it was expected the Vikes would roll here…but Dallas earned this win. Not technically great play by the two teams, but good enough for an average NFL team to win on a Sunday.
Dallas has been building towards this…they actually hung in their game Week 8 vs. PHI with Ben DiNucci as an emergency starter. They couldn’t win with DiNucci, but they hung around until late and finally folded. Turning to Garrett Gilbert the following week – they should’ve beaten the Steelers. They had that game won but flipped over in the 4th-quarter to the better team. A bye week after the Gilbert event, Andy Dalton gets healthy…and they show up here with a nice win AT Minnesota to get to (3-7) and a Thanksgiving Day win away from taking over 1st-place, pending the Sunday Eagles-Giants result. We project Dallas getting to 7 wins and winning the NFC East now, but 6 wins and a tiebreaker hope is firmly in play as well.
Minnesota falls to (4-6), a huge blow/loss…they could’ve been (5-5) and a game out of the wild card with a win here, but they failed to book their 4th win in-a-row. Their wild card season is on the line with Carolina this week (12). A win over the Panthers and they have a chance to get to 9 wins and a possible wild card. More likely they will finish (8-8) or worse and not make it.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Watching this game made me consider the high profile rookie WRs in this game…
Justin Jefferson (3-86-1/5) has been the better WR, statistically, than CeeDee Lamb (4-34-1/6, 2-12-0) but the world would say Lamb is better per their vast scouting. Which is it?
Who is the better NFL WR…or FF WR…is there a difference?
I’m not against either, but I’ve been much more impressed with Jefferson’s work than Lamb’s. Not that Lamb has been bad, but Jefferson has worked short, medium, and deep and been producing high output in not a high-flying passing game (but good enough). Lamb has been more of a ‘get open in the zone and throw it to him and gets tackled soon after’ type competent WR.
Jefferson shows me more on the field and works all the levels for FF goodness. I don’t see the breakaway star talent in Lamb like I see in Jefferson.
BUT…Lamb is good. Just more ‘B’ grade than the ‘A++++’ the media portrays. I will say a few things for Lamb after watching this game/comparison:
1) Lamb is super confident in himself, and that matters on a certain level. He doesn’t blend into the background. He makes his presence known. He demands attention. He overrates himself, but he does not lack the ego to play WR in the NFL.
2) Lamb had as good a catch as you’ll find this season on his end zone fade, falling down, twisting the opposite direction of where he was running, and catching a pass before crashing to the earth. The kind of plays stars make. Lamb can catch well+, with his very good+ hands…he has some DeAndre Hopkins in him.
3) Lamb is building a decent trust with Andy Dalton…Michael Gallup has been left for dead. It’s Cooper-Lamb for Dalton.
4) Lamb is starting to become the jet sweep guy. Usually getting one carry per game, he got two carries here…and another for a two-point conversion. Something to note for his FF projections.
-- Ezekiel Elliott (22-103-0, 2-11-1/2) looked refreshed off the bye…best game for him since Dak left. Movement was much better here than the sluggish Zeke we saw most of this season.
Tony Pollard (5-60-1) is looking great with relief touches and had a sweet 42-yard TD run here. Just note – Pollard is going to see different defensive attention when he’s in the game. Pollard is not taking over for Zeke or even moving into a split.
-- Andy Dalton (22-32 for 203 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) looked very Andy-Dalton-capable here. He looked very capable. Not much difference between him and Kirk Cousins (22-30 for 314 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) to the eye.
I’m not saying Andy Dalton is great, but he’s not terrible…and he’s in a good spot in Dallas with these WRs, especially when he plays indoors.
-- Irv Smith (2-23-0/2) returned from injury, and I thought he looked very good. He had back-to-back catches on a drive midway in the 1st-quarter, and I thought he was going to have a game for himself to get back on the PPR map at TE…but he never saw another target. Why? I have no idea…but that’s why you can’t get too excited about him for FF, sadly. This happens to him every week…a flurry of 2-3 catches and then nothing for quarters at a time.
-- Everyone thinks the Dallas defense is terrible, but they are not terrible. They aren’t good, but they’re not godawful. I note that to say…
Week 12 v. Washington might not be too bad.
Week 14 at Cincy, might be a good spot for the opening week of the FF playoffs for some in need of a Week 14 fill-in. Weeks 15-16 with SF-PHI might not be horrible either.
Snap Counts of Interest:
45 = Rudolph
33 = Irv Smith
11 = Conklin
46 = Zeke
21 = Pollard
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Panthers 20, Lions 0
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
In a season of inexplicable football games…this may have won the prize for most inexplicable.
Detroit was in a must-win situation…a chance to get to .500, and staying firmly in the wild card race, and saving Matt Patricia’s job potentially (that should’ve been the clue that the Lions would lay down here).
The Panthers were losers of five in-a-row, playing a gauntlet of top teams, dealing with close losses and they pretty much fell out of the wild card race…and then word came down that Teddy Bridgewater would not be active for this game. A first-time starting QB would be making his debut.
How could the Lions lose?
Not only did the Lions, but they got shutout.
Not only did they get shutout and lose by 20, but the Panthers threw two end zone picks from short range plus missed a field goal. 20-0? Could’ve been 37-0, easily. That’s how bad this game was.
Carolina jumps up to (4-7). If they hadn’t played a killer midseason schedule, they might be a wild card this season. If Arizona loses to New England Week 12, and Carolina beats Minnesota, the Panthers would be one game behind #7 seed Arizona…with 4 games left…and with a win over Arizona already booked. It’s not over for Carolina. We see Carolina going (8-8) if they do beat Minnesota this week…with (9-7) very possible…IF they get that Vikings win.
Detroit…this likely sealed the fate of Matt Patricia. They fall to (4-6) and if they lose at home on Thanksgiving to Houston, with 10 days until their next game – that might be it for Patricia, an in-season change. The players hate him, by and large, and they show it on the field just about every week. We project Detroit to finish (6-10) at best.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- D’Andre Swift (DNP) got a concussion at practice during the week and was unable to play this game. He’s questionable on a short week for Thanksgiving.
If he cannot go, then the pattern of usage in this game, I guess, foretells of what Detroit will do without Swift vs. Houston Week 13…
Adrian Peterson (7-18-0, 0-0-0/1) started and was in most of the game, when it mattered on 1st and 2nd-downs.
Kerryon Johnson (6-17-0, 2-21-0/5) played double the snaps as AP, but that was more in the 2nd-half and the hurry up offense as the loss unraveled. Kerryon, as per usual, looked terrible and ineffective…which matched the waste of carries AP delivers.
If Swift is out, it will be AP on 1st and 2nd-downs, Kerryon on 3rd-down…and both are awful, but Houston is a good matchup, but how awful AP-Kerryon are might trump how awful the Texans run defense is. Good luck if you have to use one of these guys.
My ‘gut feeling’ on Kerryon for this game…ends up a punch to the gut.
-- P.J. Walker (24-34 for 258 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs, 5-0-0) made his debut and looked solid. Not great, but not terrible…obviously, good enough to win an NFL football game here.
Walker was aggressive, displaying a strong arm. Overall, he looked better than the low-end NFL QBs like Flacco-Darnold-Lock-Dan Dimes-Wentz…and Tua. You’d rather have Teddy, but PJW works in a pinch. More great coaching by this Carolina staff.
Walker looked better than Matt Stafford (18-33 for 178 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) in this game, as well. If there is any QB that I could stand to never see play another NFL game, because they are such a waste of losing games, but throwing for numbers in a dome in garbage time/hurry up offenses – it’s Stafford, and his similar version South…Matt Ryan. Stafford couldn’t even garbage time this one it was so bad.
-- First Carolina play of the game, Mike Davis started…then play #2, in came UDFA rookie RB Rodney Smith (8-29-0). And then Smith stayed in, switched in and out with Davis early on…then fumbled and was barely seen after that.
Rodney Smith got more carries in this game, and not garbage-time mind you, than Le’Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Adrian Peterson, Cam Akers, Joshua Kelley, Chase Edmonds…and equaled the carries of Darrell Henderson and Todd Gurley did in their Week 11 games.
Smith may have been into a full split this game, or more had he not fumbled away a series. Just sayin’.
Smith is a solid RB, nothing special…but NFL-worthy. He would be the Mike Davis ‘cuff’. It’s odd how he was used in this game.
-- Curtis Samuel (8-70-1/10, 1-4-0) bounced back from his letdown the prior week. He now has scored 5 TDs in his past 5 games.
Are you ready for this stat?
Since Week 7, among WRs who have played 3 or more games in that span, Samuel is the #7 non-PPR WR in PPG…just ahead of D.K. Metcalf.
I kid you not.
That’s #10 in PPR in that span…just ahead of Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, D.K. Metcalf, and Adam Thielen.
I kid you not.
-- I guess DET SAF Tracy Walker (2 tackles) has finally been benched by Matt Patricia…which was rumored all preseason/worried me all preseason. He didn’t start the past two games and is playing 50% or less snaps. He’s done for IDP until further notice.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = DJ Moore
50 = Robby
48 = C Samuel
52 = Mk Davis
09 = Rodney Smith
39 = Kerryon
17 = AP
50 = Marvin J
38 = M Hall
28 = Agnew
17 = Cephus
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Titans 30, Ravens 24 OT
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The Ravens had to win this game. The fact that they lost it, or that it was even close is a huge statement on how they’re swirling down the drain as this season wears on.
They had to win this game…
Facing the Titans team that shockingly upset their Super Bowl favorite season last season.
Coming off losses to Pittsburgh and New England their prior three games…they needed to turn the tide heading into the Steelers rematch Week 12.
The Titans came in missing two top O-Linemen and two starting defenders (and lost their best defensive player in-game). And the Titans defense was terrible before all that.
The Ravens converted 60% of their 3rd-downs in this game but were out-rushed and out-passed and they just didn’t answer the bell/win in the end. The Titans weren’t stellar, but they pulled it out in the end. Baltimore even had the ball first in OT…and did nothing, then allowed a game-winning score on Tennessee’s first OT drive. There is something going wrong in Baltimore…that elite team from 2019 has completely disappeared.
The Ravens are now (6-4), losers of three of their last 4 games…all tough losses to good teams. The ball just isn’t bouncing the Ravens’ way right now…on top of their other issues. If they lose at Pittsburgh this week, they fall to (6-5) and might be worried about making the playoffs. However, they have a cake schedule after Week 12, one where they should win out (5 games) and wind up (11-5) and get a top wild card spot.
The Titans aren’t great, but you have to say they are better than the Ravens now – beating them twice in 2020 in very high-profile, urgent games. Tennessee is (7-3) and can really make a statement with a win at Indy this week, a chance to take control of the AFC South. You have to favor Indy at home, and then Tennessee has a nice schedule ahead to allow them to finish (11-5), but they will probably stumble against some bad team – so, we project a (10-6) finish…assuming they lose to Indy this week.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I gotta start with this… Dez Bryant (4-28-0/5) looked terrific. Looks like he hasn’t lost a step…actually, he may have gained a step.
I’m used to seeing, in 2020, AB or Gronk make this type of comeback and seeing them look a bit stiff…and taking a few games to kinda get less rusty/stiff but still aren’t their old selves. When I saw Dez take a bubble screen in this game and make two guys miss and run past them for a moderate gain – it instantly got my attention.
Re-watching this game, Dez took three bubble screens and looked like a physical specimen juking past or pushing around smaller DBs trying to halt him. I was wildly impressed. Totally shocked, honestly.
How about this sentence… Dez Bryant is the #1 WR for the Ravens, right now. Not even a debate.
It’s certainly not Marquise Brown (0-0-0/3), who is now droppable in normal-sized roster redraft.
Dez Bryant matters for fantasy.
Welcome to 2020.
-- The question is, for Dez, will Lamar Jackson (17-24 for 186 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 13-51-0) throw it to him? I’m not sure…you never know what Lamar is going to do besides force it to Mark Andrews…but he may start forcing it to Dez.
Lamar flopped in a big spot here. He wasn’t bad, just not the ‘Lamar’ circa 2019 they needed right here, right now. This was a cake matchup and Lamar scored 14-16 FF pts. Not good enough. He's playing fine/solid enough football -- just that 'wow' Lamar is gone, and I'm not sure he ever returns.
Great matchups for Lamar ahead, but I’m not sure he’s going to fully capitalize on them.
-- A.J. Brown (4-62-1/7) was held down some by the great CB duo of Jimmy Smith-Marlon Humphrey…and AJB is what teams focus everything on because Corey Davis (5-113-0/7) doesn’t scare anyone.
Brown didn’t have his first catch until midway through the 3rd-quarter, but then he started to put on a show of what his gift is – his ability after the catch. He’s like a top 5 fantasy power RB when he gets the ball…he can take 5-yard crossing pattern throws and turn them into gold because no one can hardly tackle him.
This was a bad matchup, and he has one again this week with Xavier Rhodes…but then again, AJB might not have a bad matchup ever…per se.
I also mention this because Jimmy Smith shut down Diontae Johnson a few weeks ago, and when he was on AJB he had him tied up here too…Smith is on Diontae Week 12, most likely.
-- There’s an odd shift taking place at TE for the Titans…
Jonnu Smith (4-20-1/6) is the starter but has been under 33 yards in six straight games.
Jonnu is getting some of his thunder stolen by Anthony Firkser (4-33-0/5), who is playing 40-50% of the snaps now, some in two TE sets with Jonnu.
I didn’t believe in the Firkser uprising, but now I see it…and starting to hear about it – Tannehill looks comfortable throwing the ball to Firkser in times of trouble. He looks for Jonnu near the end zone, but looks to Firkser as a kinda roided up Adam Humphries pitch-and-catch throw.
Season to date:
30 catches, 49 targets, 338 yards = Jonnu
29 catches, 39 targets, 282 yards = Firkser
-- Hey, I think finally John Harbaugh agrees with me…J.K. Dobbins (15-70-1, 2-15-0/2) should be the #1 RB for this team, with clear delineation/touches away from Gus-Ingram. And that’s exactly what happened in this game.
Dobbins ran the ball 15 times, Gus 3 times, Ingram 2 times.
Just when you’re ready for the RB1 escapades to begin…Dobbins tests positive for COVID for Week 12. In redraft, use it as a buying opportunity. Dobbins will be an RB1 the rest of the season after Week 12.
…unless Harbaugh switches back to RBBC, which is always possible.
Dobbins looked REALLY good here in this game.
-- FYI, D’Onta Foreman (1-1-0) got one carry this game (on one snap), but he was the only other RB to get a carry – because if Henry goes down, I believe Foreman will be the lead ballcarrier. Jeremy McNichols (1-2-0/1) will get some work as a PPR back, but I think Foreman is the Henry handcuff for the final FF stretch…for those who that matters to.
-- TEN star LB Jayon Brown (3 tackles, 1 TFL) got hurt in this game, and is now out for the season. A huge blow to the team, and to his IDP owners.
Note…if David Long (DNP-COVID) is injected in as the starter in his place, it could be a nice little run for Long to the finish. He’s a tackle machine. I’m just not 100% sure they’ll for sure turn it over to him. I think they will, but…
-- BAL CB Marcus Peters (3 tackles) has decided to retire from football again…without telling anyone or actually walking away from the team. He ‘got paid’ and is now just drifting around the field aimlessly (like he did for KC…and then for LAR…and now here, once he got paid). QBs are posting a 66.7% Comp. Pct. on him this year…a career worst. Teams are attacking him because they feat Smith-Humphrey, and Peters is not responding…which is another reason why the Ravens-DST is faltering the last several weeks.
DAL-CLE-JAX-NYG in Weeks 13-16 should help boost the Ravens-DST ahead.
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Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = Dobbins
13 = Gus
07 = J Hill
06 = Ingram
48 = Snead
47 = Mq Brown
35 = Dez
55 = Henry
12 = McNichols
01 = Foreman
52 = Jonnu
44 = Swaim
28 = Firkser
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Saints 24, Falcons 9
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This should’ve been the game the Falcons played their best game of 2020. Had they won this game, they would’ve climbed to (4-6) and had some playoff life still intact. Instead, they play their worst game under Raheem Morris and lost…and their season is essentially over.
The Falcons led 9-3 with 2+ minutes left until halftime, and they were scuffling around with a bunch of field goals but winning…while the Saints looked disjointed with their new QB. However, the Saints pulled it together to score a touchdown before halftime and took a 10-9 lead. Anyone’s game…in a game not being played all that well.
From halftime on, Taysom Hill got his legs underneath him and turned into Lamar Jackson 2019 and Falcons never scored again, as New Orleans just manhandled Atlanta to earn a 24-9 victory.
The Falcons fall to (3-7), and honestly, after watching this performance…this season, and last…how, the owner could continue forward with Matt Ryan at QB is beyond me. However, they are way overinvested in him and are essentially financially stuck with him for another couple years unless they take a total write-off…which I assume they do not have the guts to do. The Falcons should lose out (very tough schedule ahead) or win one more and finish with 3-4 wins and earn a top 10 draft pick.
The Saints are now winners of seven in-a-row. Credit to them, they’ve grabbed several lucky wins early in this win streak and are now starting to pound opposing teams. The Saints are hitting their stride again. They project anywhere from 12-14 wins depending upon the QB situation. A favorable schedule ahead. #1 seed potential is in play as Green Bay starts to slide.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- So, Taysom Hill (18-23 for 233 yards, 0 TDs/0 INT, 10-51-2) had the type of output I expected. He’s not a bad QB, and he has Lamar Jackson-ish type traits/abilities as a runner-thrower. Not a perfect pocket passer, but defenses have to respect his run ability so much he gets more time in the pocket to work with. Overall, after a bumpy first 20 minutes, Hill got his sea legs under him and played well the final 40 minutes. The offense had a spark, an enthusiasm like or better than when Drew Brees 2020 heads it up.
Before everyone gets all excited over Taysom’s breakout performance, we have to consider two things:
1) ESPN has already announced they are pulling Hill’s fantasy TE eligibility for Week 12 forward/as long as he is the QB. Other leagues will likely follow.
It was great while it lasted. It got several people a nice spread of TE scoring Week 11. It was a gift. Enjoy that we even got it, as they take it away this week.
It’s the right thing to do by ESPN, and others.
2) Taysom did look very good here but consider that this was against the terrible pass defense of the Atlanta Falcons. With a week of tape, and against a better defense to face this week (Denver) at their home/altitude – it could be a minor fall back to earth.
Once that depression sets in, consider two more things…
1) When Drew Brees returns, Taysom is likely to gain his TE status back in leagues where he had it prior…BUT he could see even more time at QB to spare Brees, or just because he is so integrated. He could be a TE1 once Brees returns with a mix of TE play AND QB play.
Claiming/holding Hill as your QB2, might have benefits again later.
2) I LOVE listening to all the pregame people crying about how they were so sure that Jameis Winston was going to be the starter, I mean…how couldn’t he? These media people worshipped the ground JW walked on and told us incessantly that he was a generational QB talent. So, of course they ignored Taysom as an option early in the week…they didn’t even know much about Hill because they didn’t care, it was Winston’s time to show everyone how smart the analysts were all along. The mainstream is so chapped by Winston not getting the start that I heard some low-key racism ‘wonderings’ on national coverage/talk shows as to why someone as talented as Jameis could sit for the lowly Taysom Hill.
Then Taysom went out and played ball…and now they all had to put a sock in it.
Don’t worry, they’ll take that sock back out of the pie hole and start being wrong again…they’re just waiting for Taysom to lose a game, throw a pick, etc. They are going to try and destroy Taysom for daring to usurp the coronation of the great Jameis Winston. You watch. It’s disgusting how the NFL analyst class operates.
I couldn’t be any happier about it.
It’s been a bad week to be an awful-at-football-analysis NFL media type, which is to say…it’s a bad week for ALL the major media football analysts…
Winston didn’t even start and Taysom looked great, and THEN their new golden boy, Tua, got benched because he borderline sucks. The football media class had a rough week, which means they will have to rip things they hate to shreds to get their status back – they’ll be trying to get bad coaches fired during this week’s discussions to have a distraction away from your realizing they suck at football analysis…while they wait for their time to strike/re-love Jameis and Tua.
OK, here’s the Taysom-effect for fantasy…as we know it after one whole game…
-- Michael Thomas (9-104-0/12) had his best game of 2020, by far…he looked reborn with Taysom. It might have been he was just shedding rust the prior few games, as to why he underperformed upon his return. It might have been the Falcons can’t cover anyone.
We’ll see if it holds up, but the connection looked like they’ve played together as starters for years. My bet is…the targets are going to hold up, for sure. Against Denver, we might all do a 180 on this on Hill and/or Thomas.
-- Emmanuel Sanders (4-66-0/5) also looked the best he has as a Saint in 2020. Again, it could be for the ‘Falcons’ as the reason that helped it along.
-- One player that wasn’t a winner…Alvin Kamara (13-45-1, 0-0-0/1). No catches…on one target.
The Saints aren’t going to let AK drift away in this offense, but he will lose a little to Taysom’s style. I don’t think we’ll get the gaudy 7-15 pass catches/targets in games, but we will get more targeting than this and he’ll be productive otherwise.
Running QBs tend to:
a) Keep the ball themselves near the goal line to run for scores.
b) Not live to check down passes to RBs…they are more look downfield for things, and then run if needed.
I suspect Sean Payton will groom Hill to know that a pass to Kamara in the flat is a weapon/asset, not a compromise.
Latavius Murray (12-49-0, 2-36-0/2) maybe fits Taysom better…the power runner to fake/handoff to up the middle on the read option, but they will not-not be Kamara-centric on offense (unless Taysom becomes the centerpiece by sheer force/his play).
-- Jared Cook (1-6-0/1) was not a winner. Worse than the low targeting (and Cook got two other targets that were negated to penalty) – Adam Trautman (1-19-0/1) played more snaps than Cook here.
I’m not sure if a TE shift is underway, or it was making Taysom more comfortable with a better blocker TE, or what…but it happened, and Jared Cook might be in memoriam as a TE1 – after being a TD machine with the Saints going back to last season, Cook hasn’t scored a TD (or FF-mattered) in three straight games.
-- Oh, and the Falcons played in this game.
I’m not going to single out any player here because every FF player’s numbers, except Calvin Ridley’s ((5-90-0/5), was atrocious/unlike their norms. I’d be buying Hayden Hurst (0-0-0/2) after this event, not running from him.
Julio Jones (2-39-0/2) got hurt, and is questionable for this upcoming week…if he’s out – Olamide Zaccheaus (1-10-0/1) gets a bump for FF…he had 100+ yards in the game Week 10, and virtually ignored Week 11 as a backup…and, inexplicably, Christian Blake (2-28-0/4) playing a lot of snaps in Julio’s stead.
-- Was it the Falcons crapping themselves or the Saints defense is getting ‘that good’? The Saints have just shut down TB-SF-ATL in order, holding all of them to less than 15 points, and two of them under 10 points. I guess the Saints are a hot DST play.
The schedule the next three weeks sets up nice for it…at DEN, at ATL, at PHI.
*Shopping Online with Amazon this Holiday Season? Who isn’t?
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Snap Counts of Interest:
32 = Trautman
25 = Cook
19 = G Griffin
33 = Latavius
32 = Kamara
51 = Ridley
49 = Gage
37 = Blake
22 = Julio
13 = Zaccheaus
26 = Brian Hill
23 = Gurley
06 = Ito
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Rams 27, Bucs 24
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Now, everyone was sure that the Buccaneers would get focused and ‘crush’ at home on Monday Night Football…after their embarrassing loss Week 9 to New Orleans on SNF -- because they wouldn’t let that happen again. Not Tom Brady…couldn’t happen again.
They kinda did let it happen again.
If you watched every play/series of this game, you have to now know – the Rams might be the best team in the NFC, and it be because of their defense as much as anything else. They took it to/at the Bucs and never relented.
The more physical team = the Rams
Better, tougher QB = the Rams
Better WR group = the Rams
Better defensive unit = the Rams
I’ve called the Rams soft multiple times this year…the joke is on me. They’ve turned that ship around via what might be the best defense in the NFL now – one that has signs of being the true shutdown/you don’t want to face them kind.
This game was back-and-forth, but it was more the Rams controlling and the Bucs chasing…and the better team winning in the end. I know the focus of this game is going to be ‘the Tampa Bay/Brady letdown’, but that’s because we’re suckers for the media story. The real story here is – the Rams are becoming great again, and they just walloped Seattle and Tampa Bay in games everyone expected them to lose. The Rams are winning again…and the impressive part of that is that it is because they’ve transformed into a physically tough team. They weren’t tough last year or to start this season, to me. Teams and seasons undergo ebbs and flows and transformations and injuries and growth and all kinds of shifting sands – the lesson from this game is that the Rams are an emerging monster (not…that the Bucs need to play better on national TV…or ‘is Brady washed up’ – those questions are a disservice to the Rams’ ability now).
L.A. is now (7-3) and are going to the wire to win the NFC West…and they might wind up the #1 seed in the NFC if they finish hot. If Arizona is a minor fraud, then the Rams can sweep them ahead (two games upcoming) and possibly win 12 games this year. More likely the Rams finish (11-5) and because of Seattle’s easy schedule, that might be a game behind Seattle and throws the Rams into being a dangerous wild card.
Tampa Bay falls to (7-4) and are facing the reality that they are a wild card/they are not catching the Saints for the NFC South. If/when the Bucs get whacked vs. KC this week…all heck might break loose in Tampa. The Bucs’ schedule says then they should sweep their final 4 games and wind up (11-5), which puts them in a possible tie with the Rams in the wild card…but the Rams just took the seeding tiebreaker with this win.
If the Saints and Seahawks win their division, and the Packers and whomever wins the NFC East thus round out the 4 division winners -- then the Rams and Bucs are 11 win wild cards…and then there’s one spot remaining among the wild card…and that should be Arizona sneaking in. However, if the Cardinals lose to New England this week (and fall to 6-5), the wild card race really opens up to any good NFC team that gets to five wins after Week 12 (Minnesota, Carolina, San Fran).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Let’s look at all the ways the Rams are better than the Bucs in talent, and in fantasy…
First, we’ll start with the QBs:
Jared Goff (39-51 for 376 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs) is better than Tom Brady (26-48 for 216 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) at this stage of their careers. You couldn’t watch that game last night and think otherwise.
Everyone thought the Bucs would rally on national TV to put LAR in their place, and that Goff would wilt under the Bucs immense pressure…especially minus his long time starting left tackle. The QB who wilted, who was rattled was Tom Brady.
This could be a career turning point for Goff – constantly mocked, expected to falter under the aggressive defense of the Bucs, on the road on a national TV game…and Goff was technically terrific. Not talking fantasy greatness ahead, although he was fine for FF too – just noting this was a display of great NFL quarterback game play. I’m so happy for Goff, he has deserved more respect.
The Rams’ run game was obliterated by the Bucs, so they knew Goff was going to have to throw and Goff sliced and diced the Bucs with tight window throw after tight window throw. The Rams defense was one piece of the puzzle here, but Goff coming of age…that was the other piece here. This wasn’t a lucky win…like a few weeks ago when the Dolphins smacked the Rams around with a bunch of turnovers that all bounced their way – this was one team’s imposed ‘will’ on defense and with a quarterback who just played huge in a major statement game.
It doesn’t mean Goff is a top 5-8 QB for fantasy now…but he should be seen as more back-end QB1 (6pts per pass TD) than not. The Rams want to run the ball heavy with an RBBC, but this game may have shown them they should get with the 2020 times and start riding their QB more.
Tom Brady is probably the more desired FF QB, because he runs the Bucs…thus they are slowly cracking apart. Still, with Brady in charge…he will throw a million times in games, because he wants to, while Goff has to play within Sean McVay’s system which is a modified Jon Gruden philosophy.
-- The Rams WRs are better than the Bucs WRs…
Both WR groups faced tough secondaries, and the Rams top guys shined…like shockingly so, and the Bucs looked like a discount version of the Rams – you could see it in real-time in this game. It was an easy visual comparison.
Cooper Kupp (11-145-0/13) destroyed all his coverage…including top ranked CB Carlton Davis. The only thing stopping Kupp from being a steady WR1 is the passing game volume, and things getting spread around game-to-game. He’s 20-25th in PPR PPG among WRs YTD.
Robert Woods (12-13-0-1/15) re-reminded us that he is a WR1 threat too, and that he is a low-key great NFL WR. Woods is 11th in PPR PPG YTD.
If we were drafting FF WRs today, it would Woods-Kupp or Kupp-Woods 1-2, then you’d get into the Bucs WRs for your #3 pick.
…and wouldn’t that #3 be Antonio Brown (8-57-0/13), for 2020/redraft right now? You saw it – Brady only has eyes for AB, and for some justification…Brown looks like shades of his former self, and you can see the connection the two have. Bruce Arians has to stop pretending, and just put Brown in the game 80% of the time…Brady needs him. The Bucs could make a Super Bowl run, getting hot at the right time, with Brady-Brown humming. The only that stops AB as a sure WR1 ahead is what playing time Arians gives him. He may have no choice soon.
The #4 pick would be Chris Godwin (7-53-1/10)…Brady’s ‘when AB isn’t there’ throw. It’s good work if you can get it. It means 5-7 catches and 40-70 yards per game and an 8 TD per season type pace. Totally solid.
The #5 pick would be Mike Evans (5-49-1/9). There is absolutely no connection between Brady-Evans, and I think Evans is furious about it. I’m watching Evans run routes half speed in a mild form of protest (it’s what my eyes thinks they see). I’ve seen the frustration in Evans’ body language for 3-4 weeks now, since AB arrived…and there was no love/connection between Brady-Evans before that. Evans gets good short TDs and is always a 3rd-wheel throw now since AB returned.
-- The Rams RBBC is better than the Bucs RBBC, but really…’who cares?’ they’re all RB3-4s.
When the game flow is right/TB is winning/controlling games, then Ronald Jones (10-24-0, 0-0-0/1) is a possible RB1-2. Arians will run/control games with RoJo…to save Brady from himself and salt away wins.
Leonard Fournette (7-17-1, 1-9-0/4) is not rehabbing his career for a 2021 push in free agency…he’s confirming that the Jags knew something. Fournette looks slow running the ball, and he’s certainly ineffective doing it. He’s become a bloated J.D. McKissic 3rd-down back, who sees 20% of the targets McKissic does, and Brady couldn’t throw it to him on target this game for cheap/easy catches.
Fournette is an RB3 for PPR, at best…and you have to hope the Bucs have to throw a lot for him to possibly matter. This week against KC might be a decent spot…and then LF is garbage the rest of the way potentially. Just a RoJo cuff is all.
No sense in singling out the Rams RBBC, or even me saying the same things over and over. Henderson-Akers-Brown are all involved each game, each has a role, the touches/series are split. It’s the absolute right thing to do for the NFL, but RB3-4 death for fantasy trying to pick one week-to-week.
-- Since Antonio Brown returned to the NFL, Rob Gronkowski (2-25-0/6) has averaged 1.7 catches, 26.0 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game. Another TE is biting the dust and becoming a random event TE2 trying to have a TE1 week…of which there are 15 TEs trying to do so after Kelce-Waller at the top.
Get this…
The last two games, Cam Brate (3-23-0) has averaged 3.0 rec., 27.0 yards, and 0.50 TDs per game. Some of Gronk’s issue is AB arriving to spread things thin…the other is Brate starting to pickpocket targets.
-- FYI, the game winning FG was very apropos…highly drafted (for a kicker) by Tampa Bay – new Rams kicker Matt Gay (2/3 FG, 3/3 XP).
Gay was unceremoniously cut in September 2020 by Bruce Arians after a promising rookie 2019. Gay hooked onto the Rams just a few weeks ago and was elevated this game for his 2020 debut. Good for him.
Also, he’s a booming leg kicker that might have gotten a boost of confidence back in vanquishing his former coach who did him dirty.
Gay was the #5 kicker in PPG fantasy last season, because he could hit 50+ yarders with some ease. Now he plays for another solid offense. He might have some FF legs for the ROS. Kicks in a dome the next 4 weeks…that’s good too.
-- In the battle of the better DSTs…you have to go with the Rams as the better unit. 2-3 weeks ago, it was the Bucs without blinking/thinking about it. Now, the Rams have hit a stride and are not only better than the Bucs but may be the best defense in the NFL.
The Rams have a favorable schedule Weeks 12 (SF), 14 (NE), 15 (NYJ)…but this DST might be so good that Week 14 v. Kyler isn’t bad either.
Many will drop the Bucs after this week. Week 12 v. KC. Week 13 is a bye. I will take them, depending upon my need if they are dropped – MIN-ATL-DET Weeks 14-16 should be strong for a good FF DST (because of their pressure and turnover creation).
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Snap Counts of Interest:
68 = Godwin
61 = Evans
43 = AB
15 = S Miller
54 = Gronk
29 = Brate
36 = Fournette
25 = RoJo
68 = Woods
65 = JReynolds
52 = Kupp
33 = DHenderson
27 = M Brown
12 = Akers
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Football Team 20, Bengals 9
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
This game was sad for the Bengals for multiple reasons. Obviously, the Joe Burrow injury situation…devastating. But hidden by that major event…the Bengals were handling Washington and were well on their way to a win and people bailing on the F-Team. Instead, Burrow is taken out…and Washington is in the NFC East title hunt. It shouldn’t have been.
The Bengals led 9-7 at halftime…their first five offensive series were all drives down to the red zone or goal line area, all scoring opportunities – but several fluky things happened (a fumble, missed FGs) and caused Cincy to settle for 9 points. They were knocking on the door of having scored 21+ points before the half…but instead it was just 9.
Once Ryan Finley came in, all the final wind was knocked out the Bengals’ sails…and transferred it to Washington, who then ran over Cincy. Had the injury never happened, I believe Cincy would have put 20-25+ points on F-Team and would have won this game easily. Instead, the reverse happened.
With the loss, Cincinnati falls to (2-7-1)…losing several games they coulda/shoulda won, including this one. With better coaching/team management this could’ve been a .500 team scrapping for the playoffs behind Burrow. Now, they will lose out and have to worry about how long Burrow is really out.
Washington luckily jumps to (3-7) and is firmly in the bizarre race for the NFC East. If they beat Dallas Week 12/THU…they are technically in 1st-place until the Sunday games are played out. I think they’ll lose to Dallas and their season will slip away to 4-5 wins tops, BUT I’m not ruling out they beat Dallas and make a run at ‘first team to 6 wins, wins the NFC East’ prize.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Joe Burrow (22-34 for 203 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) injury has me taking out my fictitious red pen and slashing through all the Bengals’ related redraft fantasy numbers. Everything is poisoned. It even hurts Dynasty outlooks a little bit on Burrow and related players.
There is no more debate over Herbert vs. Burrow, for Dynasty, in the short term.
Here’s a list of the things affected by this Burrow loss…
1) The Bengals now have arguably the single worst offense in the NFL…which means a great play for your opposing DSTs.
This really aids Miami-DST Week 13. Makes Dallas-DST viable Week 14. It puts Houston-DST on the board come the all-important Week 16.
2) Ryan Finley (3-10 for 30 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) is OK…a ‘D+’ grade QB. He might get better with time, but he’s had no real time to get better. He’s a backup paid little attention to and not groomed, now thrown into playing with a terrible O-Line and weak backfield and mostly slower, technically savvy WRs. Having pro/savvy WRs requires a tight window thrower…that won’t be Finley, he hasn’t enough time with them or the O-Line protection to make it hum. All you had to do was watch the 1st-half of this game with Burrow as a magician, and the 2nd-half with Finley crushed every other play.
3) The RB-duo of Gio Bernard (9-18-0, 4-37-0/5) and Samaje Perine (5-19-0, 1-2-0/2) were already not doing great, now it will be worse – hard-pressed to find TDs to help their FF scoring.
Gio might see some extra pass attempts to be Flex viable in PPR.
If Joe Mixon returns, he’s mostly dead in this too.
4) Tyler Boyd (9-85-0/11) and Tee Higgins (3-26-0/10) go from WR1.5s to WR3s. Higgins really hurt because his lack of speed doesn’t help Finley to make great use of him in the timing passing game. Burrow-Higgins was magic…Finley-Higgins is going to be a mess, potentially.
5) A.J. Green (4-41-1/9) is not a help, ever, in 2020 anyway…so, he’s a WR4 still.
6) Auden Tate’s (1-5-0/2) rise is shot down until 2021, when Burrow returns.
7) Take down Randy Bullock’s (1/3 FG, 0/1 XP) numbers too. He was doing well, but no Burrow…and note he missed two FGs and an XP in this game on top of everything else.
-- When will Burrow return? He has more than a garden variety ACL tear. It’s ACL, MCL, and other structural. He could miss all the 2021 preseason and be limited in returning…and you don’t rush a golden goose like this.
Not only is the redraft picture bleak…so too is the Dynasty valuations going to take a hit on Higgins, etc. What if he loses a half or full 2021 season with Burrow out? Not to mention Boyd-Mixon, etc.
Dark times for everything Cincinnati.
Not a bad time for your rebuilding FF team to trade for Burrow, as an investment, and just have him as a luxury item. He’s going to be one of the best in the game, potentially. He already kinda was.
-- Alex Smith (17-25 for 166 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is not one of the best QBs in the game. He limped by another opponent here…he’s about one step above Ryan Finley damage to the surrounding items for FF.
There are only two winners with Alex Smith…
1) When WSH is winning, Antonio Gibson (16-94-1, 1-0-0/2) will be an RB1.
2) When WSH is losing, J.D. McKissic (6-43-0, 3-26-0/4) will be a PPR RB1.
-- I thought this was a perfect spot for Cam Sims (2-20-0/2) to make more noise against a weak Cincy secondary…but he got all of two targets.
Steven Sims (3-13-1/3) was the Sims to have…and that wasn’t great either.
If you’re trying to work McLaurin-Thomas-Sims I and II for fantasy…why? You’re trying to get numbers from one of the three worst passing games in the NFL with 25-50% of the action going to go to J.D. McKissic depending.
This was a perfect opponent to throw on, and they could hardly put numbers up against them. Sell it all. Avoid.
-- Two IDP notes…
1) WSH Rookie DE James Smith-Williams (2 tackles, 0.5 sacks,2 QB hits) caught my attention during the college All-Star circuit work. He, at times, looks like a 1st-round pick level pass rusher…but he usually is inconsistent in the end.
He made the Washington roster, and is playing a few more snaps each week and got 2 QB hits in here. A long way to go to viability, but just note he’s not-nothing for deep IDP.
2) WSH SAF Kamren Curl (9 tackles) has started the last three games and averaged 9.7 tackles, 1.33 QB hits, 0.67 TFLs, 0.67 sacks per game in that span. He’s working great for IDP. I don’t see the ‘wow’ on tape, but he’s working ‘on paper’.
-- You need to find better than the Washington-DST.
They look sexy…holding Cincy to 9 points, and getting 4 sacks – but all the sacks were on Finley. Burrow was mowing through them every drive, just unlucky most every time with missed field goals, fumbles at the goal line, etc. The prior week, the Detroit offense that got shutout by Carolina…they mowed through Washington.
The Washington-DST has promise but is an operating fraud currently. However, I could use them Week 12 at Dallas with some hope…because of the Dallas O-Line, but I wouldn’t think it a slam dunk. After Week 12…you need to run from the Washington-DST.
Snap Counts of Interest:
57 = McLaurin
52 = Cam Sims
20 = Steven Sims
16 = I Wright
33 = Gibson
32 = McKissic
37 = Gio
31 = Perine
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 11 Game Analysis: Seahawks 28, Cardinals 21
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
A back-and-forth game where Seattle just looked like they had the better plan/enthusiasm/luck this night…you could kinda feel it from the start. Down 23-21 with 13+ minutes left, the Cardinals got called for holding in the end zone, which resulted in a safety…and that really took the wind out of the Arizona sails.
From the point of the safety, Seattle took the ensuing free kick on a 7-minute, back-breaking drive to kick a field goal to jump ahead 28-21. Plenty of time for Kyler & Friends with 2+ minutes left.
Kyler worked it right down the field but down to the Seattle 27-yard line, Kyler threw three incompletes and then was sacked on the 4th-down and…ball game.
Good, solid division win for Seattle as they take the NFC West lead at (7-3) and now hit a schedule stretch that should launch them to the NFC West title, a possible #1 seed, and a possible Super Bowl trip (to lose to whatever team comes from the AFC). I don’t think they’ll get to the big dance but this win was huge with a favorable PHI-NYG-NYJ-WSH the next 4 weeks…they can get to (11-3) and be in a great spot to finish with 12-13 wins. We project they stumble somewhere in the 4-game cake stretch and end up (11-5), which could still win the West over the Rams.
Arizona loses, falls to (6-4)…a Hail Mary Week 10 away from being (5-5) and losers of three straight. Massive next two weeks for Arizona…at NE, v. LAR. If they lose both of those games, it proves they are not ready for the next level yet and an (8-8) season may emerge. If they can at least split with their next two games, they should get to (9-7), at least, and sneak into the playoffs. 10 wins isn’t off the table…but considering that they might be a Week 10 Hail Mary win and a lucky OT win vs. SEA Week 7 away from being losers of their last 4 in-a-row…a collapse to 7-8 wins isn’t off the table either.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The Kyler Murray (29-42 for 269 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 5-15-0) Report…
Everything is fine.
We’re so used to Murray crushing it for FF tallies, that a 20-24 point FF game seems like a letdown. I get it. He didn’t add his usual 50+ yards rushing with rushing TD FF-goodness here…I was getting too used to booking it every week.
Just know:
a) everything is fine
b) his luck had to run out at some point…’luck’ meaning, just that there would be a game that the script worked against him.
What hurt him here…
Early in the game, tried for a rushing TD, as he does, had the angle for a moment but got caught up and sent out of bounds short.
A 35/25 time of possession deficit for the Arizona offense.
When the penalty/safety happened in the 4th-quarter, Seattle then went on a 7-minute drive and left Kyler with just one drive for the game for final FF points, and it didn’t end in a TD. Just short again. The ball kept away too much for a huge FF week.
Had Kyler converted a TD on that final drive, we probably would have got +6-8 (depending on 4 or 6pts per pass TD) more FF points…AND another OT game for more numbers.
Kyler threw Andy Isabella a perfect pass on the money in the end zone 2nd-to-last play, but Seattle made a perfect timing breakup. A second later on the DB’s arrival on the throw and it might have been a sweet/long TD. A second earlier that they arrived and it would have been pass interference for 1st & goal from the 1-yard line and an OT game.
We just missed a sweet one with Kyler this week.
Everything is fine.
Next week, at potentially cold New England…that has me not doing cartwheels…
-- Russell Wilson (23-28 for 197 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 10-48-0) had a similar event as Kyler for FF scoring. The thing that has me a touch worried about Wilson for FF ahead…a season low 28 pass attempts, and 31 rushing attempts here, which allowed them to control time of possession and win this game. And that ‘mode’ is starting to creep back into the Seattle offense.
The head coach and O-C that wants to, CRAVES to run the ball…they just did just that and it worked to perfection for them. They get Chris Carson back as early as Week 12.
…I think the Seattle HC and O-C may be taking the spatula and apron away from Wilson, and kicking him out of the kitchen at meal time. Not fully, but enough to move him away from the high-flying top 3 FF QB you got used to early.
-- If Russ is going to reheat leftovers more than ‘cook’, it’s going to affect their WRs for FF.
Tyler Lockett (9-67-1/9) might be at more risk because he’s had more FF duds than WR1 moments…except against Arizona, where he’s made a season off two games against them.
D.K. Metcalf (3-46-1/5) might have a little dip, but even though he’s getting double covered more now…he’s still a small ‘g’ god WR. He caught a 41-yard beauty in this game that got called back for offensive holding or his game would have been more fine for FF.
-- Worse week for the Arizona WRs…
DeAndre Hopkins (5-51-0/8) got doubled quite a bit.
That meant Christian Kirk (4-50-0/6) should’ve had a great FF game, but he was a virtual ghost. Larry Fitz (8-62-0/10) more led the way. Smart of Kyler not to force it where it wasn’t available.
I just don’t trust Kirk + Kyler, in my heart of hearts…something doesn’t look right with Kirk in this relationship, or lack thereof.
-- Kyler did hit Chase Edmonds (2-13-0, 4-36-1/4) for a TD pass…as I’ve been noting for weeks, Edmonds survives in 2020 as a PPR back…an RB2-3 you can use even though he plays limited snaps.
I was disappointed he went right back to no/little carries (2) in this game. Gotta make way for the great Kenyan Drake (11-29-1, 4-31-0/5) and his 2.6 yards per carry.
-- Carlos Hyde (14-79-1, 2-16-0/3) led the way for Seattle…a 2nd-half TD run saved a fantasy ‘meh’ week.
Bo Scarborough (6-31-0) came off the practice squad and looked good, as always. How Tennessee never signed him and made him Derrick Henry’s clone/backup, I have no idea.
Next week, Chris Carson could return…and the two RBs who ran this game are done for FF. Hyde just a ‘cuff you must have because of Carson’s fragility…but Rashaad Penny is trying to get back soon, so that further confuses the ‘cuff situation.
-- Greg Olsen is done for the season, and probably his career (that’s been over for like 2-3 years). His injury does create an opportunity that fantasy analysts will probably be chirping about this week…
Will Dissly (1-10-0/1) played the majority of snaps in Olsen’s absence (43 snaps) and not Jacob Hollister (2-14-0) who had just 13 snaps.
Dissly will be one of the waiver talks of the week, in a desperate TE world…with everyone remembering when he was FF hot for a blip (before getting hurt) last season. I will be talking about it as well.
-- IDPs that I have to mention…
D.J. Reed (11 tackles) has now registered back-to-back double-digit total tackle games (10 and 11). Reed was grabbed off waivers by Seattle several weeks ago. He became a starter Week 8, and in his four games played he’s averaging 8.3 tackles, 0.75 PDs per game with a pick and a fumble recovery. Since Week 8, he’s been a DB1 performer.
Carlos Dunlap (4 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 3 QB hits) loves playing for Seattle/getting away from Cincy…3.0 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 1.7 TFLs, 2.0 QB hits per game in his three games as a Seahawk.
Possible breakout performer here, I have to say it, despite all my mocking…Isaiah Simmons (10 tackles, 1.0 sacks, 2 TFLs). He’s starting to play more and more snaps, and he was like a man possessed in this game. Looks like he grew two inches and added 10 pounds of muscle since Week 1. Stock is rising on Simmons, but he still can’t block worth a shit.
(Some of you know what that last sentence means – Kyler was sacked a season-high 3 times this game, and held to a season low rushing tally…and lost…just sayin’).
-- My Seattle-DST advisories several weeks ago…it’s turning out to be something that might save FF seasons/get teams over to and through the FF playoffs. They have looked much better with Carlos Dunlap acquired/him playing the last 3 weeks…and doing so facing Josh Allen-Goff-Kyler.
If Seattle gets back starting CB’s Griffin-Dunbar from injury, with this schedule ahead…FF-gold for the DST potentially, or at least silver or copper or not-terrible. They face Wentz-Dan Jones-Flacco-A. Smith the next 4 weeks.
-- Arizona-DST is playing much better too, and they have a nice schedule ahead as well. The next five games: Cam-Goff-Dan Jones-Wentz-Mullens. I’m starting to trust this DST more and more as ‘reasonable’ to use.
Snap Counts of Interest:
46 = Hyde
12 = Bo S.
07 = D Dallas
43 = Dissly
40 = Olsen
13 = Hollister
38 = Maxx Williams
26 = D Arnold
36 = CH Edmonds
33 = Drake
