- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Dolphins 17, Texans 9
You've got to be kidding me with this one. I've watched several boring games this year, but this one was quite possibly the worst. The score was 17-6 at halftime...
There's not much to say about this one. 5 INT's between them. 4 Fumbles. Just a bit over 500 yards total offense combined. Two of the worst offensive lines in the league. Two of the worst QB's. Probably the absolute worst two groups of skill position players. If you didn't see this one you aren't missing anything.
The only real note I have to mention about this game is that this is the 2nd week in a row that the Miami defense has shown up. They were getting smacked pretty hard early in the year, but it looks like things might finally be coming together. They really fought the Bills hard and completely shut down the Texans here. (Spoiler alert: they crushed the Ravens during their Thursday night game. This trend is real). This might suddenly be a defense that you have to think twice about.
Miami has quite an easy schedule the rest of the year, and if they can get Tua back healthy I could see them finishing up strong with 3 or 4, maybe 5 wins if they get lucky and pulling close to .500.
Houston...well, we all knew this was coming. They were projected to be the worst team in the league during the preseason and they are living up to the low expectations. Only the Lions are possibly worse. This team will be extremely lucky if they can get to 3 or 4 wins.
Fantasy Notes
--How is Myles Gaskin (20-34-1, 6-23-0/6) still a thing? Seriously. You wish your RB's coach loved him as much as Flores loves Gaskin. This guy gets 20 carries while Jordan Howard, David Johnson, and Tyson Williams are lucky to get the time of day. It's borderline criminal. There is 0% chance Gaskin is still starting for Miami in 2022.
*RC NOTE: 0% only if Brian Flores is fired. It’s 100% if Flores is retained.
--How good has Mike Gesicki (4-54-0/8) become? If he had an elite QB this guy could be putting up numbers to match the best Travis Kelce years. Some of the catches he made in this game were unreal. It's been an amazing transformation from the soft, shaky hands TE we saw coming out of college. He's going to finish as a top 5 TE in fantasy this year despite getting so few TD's. Just a QB away in dynasty and he's still quite cheap…
*RC NOTE: I’ve been on the same vibe with Gesicki, but I’m going to make Ross write up/explain Gesicki’s (0-0-0/7) game against Baltimore. Perhaps the most bizarre stat line of the 2021 season.
--The other Dolphin I want for dynasty and redraft is Jaylen Waddle (8-83-0/10). It doesn't matter that he's not the Tyreek clone he was hyped up as during the draft. He's still plenty fast, is a quality receiver, and most importantly his team loves him. Never thought we'd be talking about Waddle as a ppr monster, but that's exactly what he's become.
--I theorized that Phillip Lindsay (8-28-0) would be the primary 1st and 2nd down back after the Ingram trade and that's exactly what we've got here. You'd think that would be good for fantasy, but Houston's line sucks so badly that there's just nowhere to run. Also the team is constantly trailing which forces them to throw more and Lindsay never gets passing game work for some reason. The only weeks where Lindsay might be worth playing in deep weeks is when Houston plays an equally as bad opponent where they can keep the score close.
--David Johnson still looks like one of the better 10 or 12 RB's in the league, but he's splitting too much on this garbage team to matter.
--The only player that should be rostered in normal leagues from Houston is Brandin Cooks (6-56-0/14). He is the engine of the offense, and even though he's drawing top coverage and everyone knows he's getting the ball, he's still been a solid ppr this year even with Tyrod and Mills throwing him the ball.
--3rd string TE Antony Auclair (2-23-0/2) randomly played more snaps than Akins and Jordan here. Not sure what's going on with that. I don't see any reason to think this is an emerging trend or something to jump on.
IDP Notes
--It doesn't always show up on the stat sheet, but Emmanuel Ogbah (4 tackles, 2.5 sacks) has been playing fantastic football this year. It showed up here as he decimated a bad Houston offensive line.
--I love watching Roy Lopez (3 tackles, 1 sack). He is already a load for most interior lineman to handle and he just never stops coming. He's only playing about 30 snaps a game right now, but he's still putting up good numbers despite it. What can he do when he's a starter?
*RC NOTE: See our CFM scouting report on him where we discovered him ahead of the all scouts, and may have been the source that tipped off someone in the Texans personnel department.
Snap Counts of Interest
67 = Brandin Cooks
48 = Nico Collins
34 = Danny Amendola
34 = Antony Auclair
25 = Jordan Akins
20 = Brevin Jordan
31 = David Johnson
21 = Rex Burkhead
14 = Phillip Lindsay
65 = Jaylen Waddle
60 = Mack Hollins
17 = Albert Wilson
59 = Mike Gesicki
45 = Durham Smythe
36 = Adam Shaheen
54 = Myles Gaskin
14 = Salvon Ahmed
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Falcons 27, Saints 25
The Saints are one of those ‘good-not-great’ teams that can beat any top team (crushed Tampa Bay Week 8) and can also lose to any bottom team out of nowhere (losing here to ATL). You never know what Saints team you’re gonna get week-to-week.
The Saints are trying to play this season on a strategy of having a plausible offense (with Trevor Siemian) and solid defense (which varies wildly week-to-week) to back their way into the playoffs. They do not have the firepower to make any noise if they get to the playoffs. The Saints are in no man’s land for the NFL…too good to tank for better draft slotting, and not good enough to take seriously as a title contender. They just kinda exist as this annoyingly good or bad team week-to-week. They have a path to 9-10 wins, and a wild card…but they won’t do much with it if they do get into the playoffs.
The Falcons were up 10-0 at the half, and up 24-6 with 10+ minutes left in the game…but then they did the typical Falcons collapse-with-the-lead and out of nowhere the Saints pulled ahead 25-24 with 1:01 remaining. Cordarrelle Patterson came down with a big/deep ball prayer to get the Falcons into a reasonable FG position with not much time left…and the Falcons ended up hitting the game winning ‘three’ at the buzzer to shock the Saints in New Orleans.
Atlanta climbs to (4-4) and could have been (6-2) with a little luck, or (1-7) with worse luck. They are at .500 today, but I think they’re one of the worst teams in the NFL. But they are still in the playoff race today. The Falcons will win 6-7 games tops.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I may be leading us all off a cliff…or more apropos, I’m offering you some purple Kool-Aid straight from a Jonestown home brewed recipe. Whatever analogy you’d call it, I’m going to make the following comments, I’m going to trust my instincts/scouting, and you decide whether to pick up the cup and drink…
Deonte Harris (6-52-0/8, 1-22-0) is the closest thing to Tyreek Hill there is in the NFL right now. It’s a large gap/distance between them in the race…but Deonte is starting to give me that same hair standing up on my arms feeling like when I saw Tyreek Hill early on in his NFL career.
It’s not so much an ‘on paper’ comp, as it is ‘my eyes’…but to just show the physical comparison data, and the gap between them…
5’6”/171, 4.48 40-time, 2.50 20-yd, 1.51 10-yd, 4.16 shuttle, 6.82 three-cone = Deonte
5’8”/185, 4.29 40-time, 2.51 20-yd, 1.50 10-yd, 4.06 shuttle, 6.53 three-cone = Tyreek
Deonte is working like a cross between a store-brand old Tyreek Hill (years 1-2 in the NFL) and Curtis Samuel 2020 – blazing speed, super high-end ability to stop-start/accelerate and juke, a top punt/kick return threat, BUT (and here’s the key) he’s starting to work like a real NFL WR. He’s running sublime routes and breaking them off so quickly or changing directions that no corners can keep up with him.
And the great news is, the QBs are starting to notice. Harris has played three normal (for him) games since Week 4 (got hurt Week 5 in-game, missed Week 7 and had a Week 6 bye). The Saints top 3 in targeting in those three specific games…
23 targets = Deonte (14 catches)
13 targets = Callaway (8 catches)
11 targets = Kamara (7 catches)
It’s not even close how much the Saints are shifting to Harris. And it’s happening with him working with Winston and Siemian.
Harris is taking some bubble screens, because he should take 3-4 per game, but more and more he’s running downfield routes and the QBs are using him the most for real NFL throws. He’s been on the brink of breaking small catches turning into long run TDs. He’s a deep ball threat, a reliable 1st-down maker with his hands/routes, and an excellent bubble screen option who can take jet sweeps (hit on a 22-yarder in this game). He can do it all.
The crazy thing is, he’s doing all this while playing about 30% of the snaps in games. People freak out about lower snap counts for WRs/RBs, and I get it, but I’ll make the same argument here that I did when everyone in FF analysis was wanting to deny Cordarrelle Patterson for the same rationale – snaps don’t matter as much when the player is consistently touching the ball when he IS IN for his snaps. Deonte has nearly doubled the next closest player on the Saints in targets in his recent three ‘normal play’ games (Wks 4, 8, 9) while only playing 38% of the snaps in those games on average (49-32-30).
Most people will say – it’s a red flag/it can’t keep up playing low snap counts. I get that. It’s totally natural. But I believe in the thought process that he’s getting good targets despite the low targets, and it’s getting consistent, and then…WHAT IF THEY UP HIS SNAPS (what I said about CPatt early on in the 2021 season)?
Harris is moving towards the Saints top non-RB weapon and Sean Payton knows it, and the QBs know it, but they do need to manage his reps because he has had history of getting nicked up – they need to treat him with some ‘management’, and you only ‘manage’ things you care about/need.
Some random Harris factoids…
2019 NFL All-Rookie team
2019 1st-team punt returner voted by AP (and many others)
2019 All-Pro as a return man
2020 hurt (minor injury) most of the season.
2021 Currently leading the NFL in kick return avg (27.6) despite not returning one for a TD yet.
He has caught 75.8% of his career 62 targets.
He has run the ball 12 times in his career, for 105 yards (8.8 ypc)
He is YTD #3 on the Saints in targets and catches, despite having missed three games, essentially -- but making his big move as of late in targets and catches.
Despite missing two games and playing under 50% of the snaps all season…he currently leads the Saints in receiving yards (323) and yards per reception (15.4).
We’re not on the verge of a Tyreek Hill 2020 or 2021, were more kinda-sorta early stages Tyreek…but no one was like Tyreek or will be (of anyone I see in the NFL). Harris isn’t thick enough or pure speed fast enough to be like Tyreek, but Harris is in the realm in the church but not the same pew…and I’d say Harris is a better pure WR than Tyreek, but Hill is the freak of freaks with his speed/agility.
He could have 3 catches for 30 yards and no TDs this week, and you’ll scoff at him as another RC delusion, and it could be…wouldn’t be the first time -- but whether he breaks out to a big game/play Week 10 or the following…I sense something is happening/building here. Something that can work for FF and might give you some big pop play/FF scoring while now starting to form a base of not being a zero on the downside…that he’s ‘the guy’, in a sense, for this passing game.
With Alvin Kamara out…might Harris see more touches Week 10?
Deonte Harris quick bio with some interesting college info/stats: https://youtu.be/jaB85XNdFpY
-- Mark Ingram (9-43-0, 5-21-0/5) will take the bulk of the backfield work Week 10 with Kamara out. Ingram has rolled right back into his old role and the Saints have no other RB of note to lean on. Josh Adams isn’t ready, and they never push Ty Montgomery.
-- Sean Payton is sticking with Trevor Siemian (25-41 for 249 yards, 2 TDs/0 INTs) at QB. I was wondering if Taysom Hill (2-2 for 33 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) caught Payton’s attention with his brief, but sweet work 3rd-quarter of this game, or on fears the Saints have no offense with AK out Week 10 so maybe Hill would be a wrinkle…but, no it’s Siemian for Week 10.
Watching this game…Siemian was fine. But nothing special. BUT is a coach’s dream running the playbook, being smart with the ball, etc. Sean Payton has had to make two QB decisions in 2021, and both times he chose not-Taysom, so unless Siemian goes down or they lose 2-3 games in a row…the Taysom story is about over (at QB). Next year, the Saints will sign a free agent and then it will really be over.
-- If I were making a list of 10 candidates for league MVP through nine weeks, I think Cordarrelle Patterson (9-10-0, 6-126-0/6) would have to be on it.
Succeeding at WR, RB, and kick returner…and teams are changing their defensive plans around him. Pretty amazing.
My top MVP guys right now might be (off the cuff)…
Derrick Henry
Kyler Murray
Lamar Jackson
Tom Brady
Josh Allen
Cordarrelle Patterson
Tyreek Hill (triple teamed often)
Kyle Pitts (instantly double teamed from day one)
Alvin Kamara
Michael Pittman (now getting the double treatment)
-- Russell Gage (7-64-0/8) takes over as the Falcons #1 WR, of sorts, with Calvin Ridley gone. He’s a solid WR2-3 play in PPR. gage had that odd zero catch game Week 8, but in Week 7 and 9 = 5.5 rec., 65.5 yards, 0.5 TDs per game. I know, I know...he's too boring for you...you want to chase Brandon Aiyuk putting up the same numbers (at best) on a worse passing game because the guys on Fantasy TV and print are really into Aiyuk making a reemergence...and they don't ever mention Gage at all.
Olamide Zaccheaus (3-58-2/3) made the most of his extra opportunity here. Facing Dallas this week…usually the guys not covered by Trevon Diggs have nice games, OZ might have another useful one Week 10.
Diggs may be on Kyle Pitts (3-62-0/7) this week…that’s why I say Pitts is an MVP candidate. He gets more coverage respect than any player I’m watching weekly except for Tyreek Hill and Michael Pittman.
Pitts had an OK game here, but he dropped a wide-open, perfectly thrown first pass of the game for 35+ yards, which would have (in theory) given him a 100+ yard game again. Pitts is going to be a mega star…maybe, depending upon if he can get some more single coverage in the years to come.
Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = Tre’Quan
60 = Callaway
25 = Stills
23 = Harris
17 = Taysom
15 = K White
52 = Kamara
26 = Ingram
48 = Gage
47 = Sharpe
44 = Pitts
33 = CPatt
33 = Mk D
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Jaguars 9, Bills 6
How did this happen? Were the Bills really outplayed by the Jaguars? Lots of questions after such a shocker.
I would say ‘yes and no’ that the Jags outplayed the Bills here. Yes, for the most part…the Jaguars played toe-to-toe here, but ‘no’ in that Buffalo ran more plays, outgained the Jags easily, and converted a much higher percentage of 3rd downs. In the end, Buffalo got brutalized with penalties at the wrong times, allowing JAX to convert 1st downs off penalties and throwing their own selves into 1st and 2nd and 3rd and long in key spots. Plus, Josh Allen had two terrible picks trying to make plays in a muddy situation.
I think, in the end, the Bills thought they could go and win this any time they wanted and when they were making their move there were some strange, ill-timed penalties or turnovers that happened to completely switch the momentum. The Bills LOST this game more than Jacksonville won it.
Jacksonville was weak on offense but good on defense pressuring Josh Allen most of the day with just 4 pass rushers and some well-times 5th blitzer. A gold star for the defensive coordinator to halt the Bills, but within that there was plenty of good fortune with penalties and receivers dropping 1st-down passes on 3rd-down, etc. The Jags are now (2-6) and are still pretty bad, arguably the worst team in football still. They might cap off at 3-4 wins this season.
The Bills fall to (5-3) with (5-4) New England suddenly right up their backside. The Bills are better than the Patriots, so when they meet two times ahead…Buffalo should at least split, if not sweep NE and put down the uprising. We project Buffalo with 12 wins…still with a chance to get that #1 seed if they can get to 13 wins.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- NO worries on Josh Allen (31-47 for 264 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs, 5-51-0) after this tape watch. He’s gotta be the #1 QB for Fantasy right now, considering the fall of Mahomes/KC, the injury to Kyler, etc.
Allen was fine…MVP-like in carrying this team, but he got pressured a bunch, tried to make some slick throws under duress where he wasn’t set to make the play. Cole Beasley flat-out dropped a 15-yard pass for a key 3rd-down conversion…that doesn’t happen often, would’ve kept the drive going for more numbers. Jacksonville stoned the goal line efforts right away on the first drive, leaving Buffalo to settle for an FG…after a throw to a receiver left inches away from a TD.
It just wasn’t Josh Allen’s day. Use this game outcome to go buy low as possible on Allen.
-- Speaking of QBs…
Speaking of situations where the #2 QB is working better than the #1 QB a la Mike White v. Zach Wilson…
C.J. Beathard (2-2 for 33 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) was forced into the game off a Trevor Lawrence in-game injury that looked bad, and Beathard came right in looking like a stronger-armed, way more aggressive/confident version of Lawrence. I’m not joking or try to poke fun at Trevor…in a flash, the Jags offense changed.
CJB led a hurry-up offense right before halftime, and he waltzed them down the field and planted a beautiful 35-yard TD pass on the run, on the money, in-stride to Jamal Agnew…who dropped it. The play was stricken from the records by a roughing the passer…and then Carlos Hyde fumbled it away the next play. Then Lawrence returned to action on the next drive.
This will all be forgotten.
I won’t forget.
No one will care that I won’t forget.
It was only a couple of plays.
But put that with this…
-- Carlos Hyde (21-67-0, 1-6-0/2) ran tough against a top NFL defense…he looked just as good/better than James Robinson (DNP).
No one will care.
The Jaguars looked better on offense with their backup QB and RB.
Urban Meyer won’t care…didn’t notice. He’s got bar business to attend to.
James Robinson will be pushed back to the starting lineup not at 100% this week, regardless.
-- The two players Trevor Lawrence is getting more and more comfortable with…
1) Jamal Agnew (3-27-0/5)…his go-to lean over Marvin Jones (3-21-0/5) now. This was another game where Agnew led the WRs in targets. Agnew looks terrific. He is playing with max effort to take advantage of this golden career opportunity. He let a 4-62-1 game slip through his hands on that CJB bomb.
Whether you ‘trust’ him or not, he’s the #1 target among Jags WRs. That ain’t nothing…and he’s talented. It’s Trevor Lawrence that’s his main problem.
2) Dan Arnold (4-60-0/7) played really well last week and was good here too, leading the Jags in targets among all players.
Since their Week 7 BYE…so, two games since they had two weeks/extra time to redesign their offense, etc., the targets in the last two games (total):
17 = Agnew (+1 rush attempt for 18 touches)
17 = Arnold
13 = M Jones
8 = Shenault
It’s the Arnold and Agnew show for Lawrence, because of his limited arm.
-- Do we trust the Jags defense now? Well, last week they were humiliated by Geno Smith, so…probably not. However, their front/D-Line is getting so good…they’re a top 12 run defense by yards allowed per game BUT now #3 best in yards per carry allowed. They face the hottest back in the NFL…Jonathan Taylor Week 10.
Remember when people thought Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the best Dynasty RB coming out of the 2020 NFL Draft? Is he even in the top 3 from that draft? Top 5?
The Jags have a nice O-Line and D-Line…that’s usually a recipe for NFL success. Just their QB is not very good, and their head coach is awful/a detriment.
-- Jags DB Rudy Ford (8 tackles, 1 INT, 3 PDs) seems to be emerging as ‘Urban’s guy’. He’s the one player I see actually talking to Meyer like they’re on the same page/buddies. Everyone else pretty much avoids Urban.
Ford is a growing thing the past 4 games, going from 9% to 36% to 63% to 99% of the snaps played, and Week 9 was his first start.
Snap Counts of Interest:
48 = Singletary
19 = Z Moss
51 = Marvin J
48 = Shenault
33 = Agnew
19 = Treadwell
35 = Arnold
29 = Farrell
27 = Manhertz
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Chargers 27, Eagles 24
Hard fought game and victory for the Chargers…on the road, west-to-east coast trip, missing two starting CBs…and they held off Philly and won at the buzzer on a field goal. Both teams played well, but when it was crunch time – Justin Herbert led a drive down to the red zone and ran the clock out for a game winning FG.
The Chargers are now (5-3), in a 1st-place tie in the AFC West…but a loss from last place. The LAC schedule eases up now, so the division is theirs for the taking if they can get healthy on defense. The Chargers should be headed to 11-12 wins and that should put them as likely division winners.
The Eagles fall to (3-6), but they too have a schedule ease ahead…but the Eagles are not as good a team to capitalize on it like the Chargers. Philly projects to 7-8 wins, but 9 wins is on the board…with 7 most likely the outcome.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I thought Jordan Howard (17-71-1) started this game, but he didn’t Boston Scott (10-40-0) did…but it was Howard who came in soon after and was rotating with Scott, and JoHo was the FAR superior back and he just kinda was the hot hand and Philly (smartly) went with it. Howard looked fantastic, as usual…so, you know, as soon as Miles Sanders returns (likely Week 11)…Howard goes back to the practice squad where no other team will notice he’s there and try and claim him.
Boston Scott will start Week 10, but who know who leads Philly in touches from there between he and Howard. I’d guess Howard, but that’s just a guess.
-- What’s wrong with Mike Williams (2-58-0/5)?
I didn’t see anything problematic with the way he was moving around. He had three TD shots in this game but none of them worked out…a fade that didn’t work from short distance, a tunnel screen at the goal line that Herbert threw 150mph through his hands, and another goal line shot where Williams either turned the wrong way or Herbert had the wrong interpretation and it was throw 180 degrees opposite of where Williams broke his route to.
It definitely wasn’t a great game for MW, but had he cashed in on TD then it would have been a decent FF output. He doesn’t look hurt. It just felt like Darius Slay was doing a good job on him WITH Keenan Allen (12-104-0/13) going off on the other CBs, so there was no need to push it to anyone else. Herbert’s first throw to Allen was 10-feet over his head…and then they connected on their next 12 passes with no incompletions.
I’m not down on Mike Williams but I’m certainly not thrilled with his recent fall down in numbers. I see no reason why he can’t pump back up but all of us will be worried until we see him breakthrough again. Half+ of his recent decline came with him really hurt. But the last two games he looks mostly healthy/good.
-- You know who impresses me? Donald Parham (3-39-1/3). He’s slimming down and moving quicker and is really catching the ball well…catching it smoothly and at all angles. He’s likely going to be in this split role with Jared Cook (4-48-0/4) and Stephen Anderson (4-39-1/4) all 2021, but Parham is becoming the best looking of the group, to me.
A couple random Parham notes…
3 TD catches in his last 5 games…the 8th most in the league. More TD catches this season than Waller-Gesicki-Hockenson-Goedert-Higbee-Engram…and Jared Cook.
17 games played in the NFL with at least one target…6 TD catches…6 TDs in his 20 career catches.
50.0% catch rate in 2020…when he was just a fade/alley-oop guy in the end zone. In 2021, as he becomes more of a real TE, he’s caught 83.3% of his targets this season to date.
Tre McKitty landed in the wrong spot for FF…
-- Chargers TE Steven Anderson (4-39-1/4) popped up with a blip game here. LAC used him wisely leaking out off of blocks, in motion in the backfield like a H-back/FB in the flat, etc. I don’t think anything is developing here, just Philly is bad against the TE with their random linebackers and LAC targeted Keenan Allen 13 times, the TE group 11 times, and Mike Williams just 5 times.
Which brings it home more that Mike Williams is not worthy of the Kupp-Davante-Tyreek-Pittman class right now…LAC/Herbert is spreading it around game plan to game plan, and not desperately leaning on Mike for everything.
The funny thing is – opposing teams don’t think so, they are throwing their best coverage at Big Mike…and then Herbert is just rocking them everywhere else, smartly.
-- Speaking of Justin Herbert (32-38 for 356 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT)…I guess his hand injury was OK? He completed 84.2% of his passes here and just had his way with the Eagles secondary. Philly’s pass defense has racked great numbers against the weak and been obliterated by the strong QBs. This game was another example.
-- I thought this was a solid game of Jalen Hurts (11-17 for 162 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 10-62-0) playing Jalen Hurts ball…he’s the better all-around Lamar Jackson but doesn’t get the credit for it for two reasons:
(1) He doesn’t have the flashy highlight moves running the ball as Lamar but is as/more effective with his strong style vs. Lamar’s flashy style.
(2) Lamar was a Heisman winner, 1st-round pick…he was supposed to be good. Hurts was drafted higher than the media proclaimed, so that’s a problem…then Hurts came in and was better than their Tua…that’s another media problem. So, all the mainstream media has done is attack Hurts and wonder aloud if they should bench him and mock 2022 NFL Draft QBs to Philly.
In 2021 season, through 9 weeks:
2,809 total yards, 15 total TDs, 10 total turnovers = Lamar Jackson (8 games)
2,475 total yards, 16 total TDs, 5 total turnovers = Jalen Hurts (9 games)
Yet, the media pushes us the narrative of Lamar as a top MVP candidate…and Hurts a top candidate to be benched.
Hurts is playing for his job/life every week. If he loses two games in a row ahead, I’m not sure he starts the next game after that. For his sake, I hope he keeps winning.
-- PHI DT Javon Hargrave (3 tackles) seasonal splits…
Weeks 1-5 = 5.4 total tackles, 1.2 sacks, 1.8 TFLs per game
Weeks 6-10 = 4.0 tackles, 0.0 sacks, 0.0 TFLs per game
He’s getting doubled…and he’s just running out of IDP juice, apparently.
-- Solid game from the LAC defense…despite missing two starting corners (M. Davis, A. Samuel) and still missing Kenneth Murray to help with their run game woes.
The LAC-DST has mediocre numbers/NFL rankings in part because they haven’t had a schedule break all season except Week 1 vs. WSH (held them to 16pts and 259 total yards).
They have some breaks ahead if they get their CBs back healthy (which they should):
Week 11 hosting PIT is great.
Week 12 at Denver should be really good.
PIT and DEN want to run the ball but have some of the worst run blocking O-Lines in the league.
Week 14 hosting NYG could be good depending on the NYG health of their weapons.
Week 16 at HOU should be sweet at just the right FF time.
Hosting DEN Week 17.
The schedule is tipping in their favor. We’ll see if they can take advantage. I still say it’s a viable defense for your Arizona pairings on matchups, but I’m not pounding my fist on the desk for it.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Quez
44 = DeVonta
29 = Reagor
25 = B Scott
23 = Jo Howard
11 = Gainwell
53 = Goedert
14 = Tyree Jackson
31 = Stv Anderson
29 = J Cook
28 = Parham
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Patriots 24, Panthers 6
In a battle of similar teams (run games and defense), the Patriots made the least number of mistakes and got an early cushion and just sat on the Panthers all game. There was no mystery to it…Sam Darnold is not good, and it showed, and helped the Pats to victory.
The Patriots are now (5-4) and crawling up the back of the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East. It’s not improbable that the Patriots win the AFC East, but I’ll say this Pats team is very stable/solid but not on Buffalo’s level…they have five wins over Zach Wilson 2x, Davis Mills (barely), Sam Darnold…and the outlier win against Justin Herbert. We’ll see how they fare against the better teams ahead. The only cupcake game they have for the rest of the season is Week 17 Jacksonville (is this a cupcake game still?). We project NE to finish with 7-8 wins, but 9 possible.
The Panthers fall to (4-5), losers of four of their last 5 games…and another loss coming to ARI Week 11. They just signed Cam Newton, but that’s really not a big upgrade from Sam Darnold. We see the Panthers flopping to 6-7 wins in the end.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- So, Carolina signs Cam Newton…
It seems exciting…if it were 5+ years ago. Now, Cam is a shell of himself and not wanted by any team all season…until this crisis spot hit.
Cam is a worse passer, better runner version of Sam Darnold (16-33 for 172 yards, 0 TDs/3 INTs)…and Darnold played like he secretly bet on the Patriots this game.
Cam will likely run the ball 10-15 times a game, in lieu of his lost passer skills (which weren’t great to begin with)…he can be decent/QB2 in 4pts per pass TD leagues for FF…maybe.
Christian McCaffrey (14-52-0, 4-54-0/5) gets a nice lift with Cam returning…anything is better than P.J. Walker for him.
D.J. Moore (2-14-0, 3-32-0/7) has little effect/help from Cam…as Cam is worse than Darnold as a passer to WRs, but he does have a relationship/history with DJM.
-- Side note on CMC…I thought he looked totally healed/fine here, no limitations.
With CMC back, Chuba Hubbard was sparingly used and ineffective. He is the handcuff though…if you own CMC, you have to hold Hubbard to go with him the rest of the way in Fantasy.
-- The Patriots have three RBs that are CLEARLY better than Chuba Hubbard – and they are rotating and look terrific.
Damien Harris (8-54-0, 1-3-0/1) is the lead dog, but he is constantly getting nicked up…and now he’s down this week with a concussion and unknown if he’ll get cleared in time for Week 10.
Harris has been very solid/good all season, but I’d say Rhamondre Stevenson (10-62-0, 2-44-0/2) looks like the more physically gifted/talented back of the two. Harris has the experience factor, but Stevenson has everything else – he’s the lead back of the future, but Belichick is always spreading around his backfield touches (smart). With Harris down, Stevenson was in a prime spot to have a big touch count Week 10, but then Rhamondre also got a concussion and is very questionable for the upcoming game.
There were moments where I thought Brandon Bolden (8-54-0, 2-22-0/2) was the best looking back of this trio…he looks terrific for a guy turning 32 years old soon. With Harris-Stevenson in doubt this week…Bolden is the guy to have, a possible RB1 for the week if the main duo is out.
-- The Patriots-DST is beating up on the week and is wobbly/allowing points against any of the better QBs they’ve faced this year (not many faced, Dak and Herbert)…but did frustrate Brady.
The schedule is a mixed bag for them ahead – CLE, ATL, TEN are not pushovers but not elite offenses either. They might be a decent start the next three weeks, but then it’s buh-bye with BUF-BYE-IND-BUF Weeks 13-16.
-- The Carolina-DST is better, talent-wise, than the Pats-DST, in my book…but Carolina’s offense doesn’t support their defense well, so it’s shaky week-to-week. Cam coming in and running the ball a bunch will help them some.
Weeks 11-12 with WSH and at MIA aren’t bad plays, especially Week 11. Then you’re likely done with them after that…BYE-ATL-BUF-TB-NO-TB to finish the season.
Snap Counts of Interest:
29 = CMC
22 = Abdullah
10 = Hubbard
54 = Robby A
50 = DJ Moore
22 = Terr Marshall
17 = Snead
55 = J Meyers
54 = Agholor
33 = Bourne
29 = Bolden
24 = D Harris
17 = Stevenson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Cardinals 31, 49ers 17
The storyline coming out/from this game is quite amazing, when you think about it.
The 49ers go into this game in a must-win…with a win they could get to .500 and be right back in the NFC West race. They caught a big break with Arizona missing Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins – basically, their offensive soul was gone. Add to that, Arizona had A.J. Green out with COVID, and J.J. Watt had been lost for the season recently. Playing at San Francisco – this was the 49ers; this was Kyle Shanahan’s time shine. Chase Edmonds got hurt right away – so, this looked SO good for SF.
So, it’s only logical that the Cardinals would race out to a 17-0 lead enroute to a beat down…at the hands of Colt McCoy and James Conner. McCoy only completed 84.6% of his passes and James Conner ran like he was Derrick Henry. It was embarrassing for San Francisco. This 49ers defense is horrific, and their offense is OK but not great. The spirit of this team is dreadful – and that’s on Kyle Shanahan.
The 49ers fall to (3-5), so not out of the playoffs at all…but looking like a longer and longer shot. A loss to the Rams this week might put them out of their misery. A win brings them to (4-5) with an easing schedule on tap the rest of the season. Likely, they lose to the Rams and finish with 6-7 wins this season, as the tougher games they do have ahead (SEA-CIN-TEN) are all on the road.
Shanahan’s hand should be forced to push Trey Lance as starter after the Rams game, assuming they lose – the season will be fading, the local media is crushing him. Everyone is turning on the golden boy. A turn to Lance can change the trajectory of the season, or at least change the narrative. Week 11, after a loss to the Rams, going to Jacksonville for a favored win is probably the move to Lance moment.
By winning this game without their stars, against a decent opponent, on the road…how can we not say that Arizona (7-1) is the best team in football? They are an A.J. Green miscommunication away from being undefeated still. They should beat Carolina Week 10, without Kyler, and then maybe get Kyler back at Seattle Week 11. Arizona projects 14-15 +/- wins, the NFC West title, and in a dogfight with Green Bay for the #1 seed, along with Dallas (who they play at Jan. 2nd/Week 17).
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Just more thoughts on the 49ers defense…
They have allowed 28 or more points in a game in four of their last 6 games…five of their 8 games this season. Carson Wentz pushed them around…then Justin Fields was not terrible against them Week 8, then Colt McCoy pounded them this game. This defense is not good.
I think back to the Indy game, Week 7, in that torrential rain – the Colts were tackling the ball and punching it out like a pack of ballhawks. The 49ers never did any such things…instead gently grabbing jerseys that slipped through their hands on their way to 30 points allowed in the soup of a game/loss. They were so soft. Then this game…James Conner was running through them like they weren’t interested in playing football.
They’re not very good…and worse than that, they have no energy/spirit. Embarrassing…while people still think they’re still formidable somehow.
-- The Arizona-DST is what is good...great even. They punched the ball out a couple times on SAWFT San Francisco, which helped them jump to a lead. This is the best defense I see with my eyes every week…them and Green Bay, and Buffalo.
The Arizona defense toyed with the 49ers. The Cardinals got up quick and then just handled/toyed with the 49ers all game.
Facing P.J. Walker this week should be a bloodbath event for them.
Week 11 at Seattle is not perfect, but I can start them with some confidence – Seattle’s O-Line is horrific.
Week 12 BYE is your main concern ahead, but then we got Weeks 16-17 to worry about too – vs. IND, at DAL…two of the best O-Lines in football, which is not great for FF numbers. If Arizona is your main DST, I’d hold them…find a replacement Week 12, maybe one that looks good Week 11. Then let’s reassess this during Week 13 with them at CHI. We need to see what we want to do Weeks 16-17, but so much injury can happen ahead of that…don’t worry about it too soon.
Week 12 options…
CHI-DST at DET on Thanksgiving?
CIN-DST hosting PIT.
MIA-DST hosting CAR…plus, Miami at NYJ Week 11.
NYJ-DST at HOU?
LAC-DST at DEN.
SEA-DST at WSH.
Plenty of waiver Week 12 options for Arizona sit.
-- Elijah Mitchell (8-36-0, 5-43-0/5) is an RB1 now, in case you own him and were looking over your RBs and bellyaching about how ‘your RBs are killing me’.
Mitchell looks terrific. Silky smooth runner between the tackles, and then in this game showed us he has terrific hands. He has all the RB1 traits, including a top O-Line…but they just lost key OL Mike McGlinchey so that sucks, but the O-Line is still good enough to keep Mitchell going…with his 5.3 ypc average this season.
Since Week 7, his full return from injury – he’s the #9 half-PPR RB in Fantasy.
No one is taking that job from him on the 49ers roster.
-- Is Brandon Aiyuk (6-89-1/8) back? Maybe.
He definitely looked better here than he has all season. However, Deebo Samuel (5-63-0/9) is still their best/#1 WR…and then George Kittle (6-101-1/8) is arguably the true ‘#1’. So, you have a low volume passing game…the #29 team in completed passes this season, #22 in passing TDs – and Aiyuk is it’s #3-in-the-pecking-order option…which is not that great for FF purposes. Russell Gage is his team’s new #1 WR, and no one cares…but somehow a nice game from Aiyuk out of the blue, a chunk of it happening when the game was kinda out of reach/Arizona playing softer…somehow that’s the signal Aiyuk is going to become a 2nd-half WR1.
The power of ‘draft stock’.
The power of ‘the football media pushing things…and all of us falling in line’.
I like Aiyuk just fine, but the situation is not fertile for him to be a consistent producer, and if Trey Lance takes over – even worse for pass game consistency.
-- Eno Benjamin (9-39-1) had a nice TD run in this game, and then saw most of his touches as this game was being salted away/after James Conner did a lot of damage.
I don’t believe Eno will see much work on purpose with Edmonds out. You need Arizona to push to a lead to get Eno more touches. When it’s ‘a game’ – then Conner is going to keep touching the ball.
If Arizona gets way up on Carolina fast, which could happen with their QB issues…Eno might see 10+ touches here, but it won’t be the on-purpose plan. Conner is now the full lead and Eno there for spotty relief.
Chase Edmonds didn’t matter in this offense, neither will Eno Benjamin aside from garbage time…unless Conner goes down, then it will be an Eno Benjamin/Jonathan Ward duel for touches.
-- With DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green down, Rondale Moore (5-25-0/5) saw a few more snaps/touches…but he’s not doing anything FF-special with them. He looks good, but he’s playing a bit part in the offense…no reason to change that now, with Arizona rolling.
The winner of the starting WRs down for this game was WR Antoine Wesley (3-62-0/3)…an impressive UDFA WR who has bounced around the league, but has found a home with his former college coach back at Texas Tech.
-- I believe if the 49ers lose this week to the Rams, then Kyle Shanahan will be forced to go to Trey Lance…just a gut feeling.
However, if the 49ers take down the Rams – then SF is right back into the mix of wild card teams and then has Jacksonville up next, for a likely win and then they’re back to .500 (5-5), which means Jimmy G. gets another 2-3 weeks, minimum as starter…so Lance is pushed way off the radar.
Redraft-holding Lance and hoping for an FF-payoff comes down to the outcome of this Week 10 game hosting LAR.
Snap Counts of Interest:
55 = Aiyuk
54 = Deebo
33 = Sanu
05 = Jauan Jennings
67 = Kirk
57 = Rondale
54 = Wesley
54 = Conner
17 = Eno B
01 = Ch Edmonds
39 = Mitchell
20 = Hasty
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Titans 28, Rams 16
I've previously discussed how the Titans and Ravens have been the bane of my existence this year. Whenever I watch these two teams I just never leave impressed. I know they are decent teams, disciplined with efficient offenses and above average defenses, but it always seems to me that they don't really belong in the discussion with the best teams in the league. They seem lucky to have the records they have.
This game for instance. The narrative is that the Titans just beat down the Rams. They dominated their offensive line and forced Matt Stafford into some mistakes. This was a statement win for the Titans and proof that they are the best team in the AFC even without Derrick Henry.
Sometimes we read too much into these small moments. Sometimes players have an off day, they make uncharacteristic mistakes, or one team gets particularly lucky. Sometimes these singular games don't really mean much. Is anyone taking the Jaguars win over the Bills seriously? Of course now. So why do we assume this game was some big defining moment for the team that won?
What I saw was the Rams get backed up near their goal line twice early in the game, and Stafford threw two really stupid passes that led to TD's for the Titans. Yes, the Titans defensive line played really well this game. But those passes didn't have to occur, and they weren't solely created by the defensive pressure. Stafford isn't my favorite QB ever, but he typically doesn't make egregious mistakes like this.
But in those two simple plays Tennessee was gifted a massive lead that they just sat on. They would score again on their own soon after for a 21-3 lead that forced the Rams into playing a certain way. And it's not like the Rams weren't moving the ball. They kept getting to the redzone but just couldn't punch it in. Eventually though they got a few field goals to get the game back within reach, only for the Titans to finally embark on only their second scoring drive of the game to close it out.
The Titans won 28-16, but their first two scores were gifts that radically changed the nature of the game. You cannot overlook that fact. And outside of that it seemed to me that the Rams were the better team overall. It was just hard to see given the warped game state.
I realize all of this sounds like I'm making excuses and not seeing reality, but I truly believe that if you played this game 10 times the Rams win 6 of them. There's not a huge difference between them. I think the Titans are a good team, the same team they've been for the past few years, solid but unspectacular. But the Rams are just a bit better in my opinion.
Regardless, both of these teams are making the playoffs. The Titans should win their division barring a collapse. And the Rams just took a massive step back in the race for the NFC West. This was their chance to get a good win and hope the Cardinals lost without Kyler Murray. Instead, the exact opposite happened, and now they are going to need a good bit of luck to snatch the division last second. This team would have a much easier time getting through the playoffs with a 1st or 2nd seed. Making them go on the road as a 5th seed will likely be too much. I don't think they are tough enough to fight through cold, outdoor conditions later in the season.
Fantasy Notes
--In the competition to replace Derrick Henry we saw Adrian Peterson (10-21-1) get first crack at it, but he was completely ineffectual. They may continue to roll with him, but I think some of his carries could be in danger because it was D'Onta Foreman (5-29-0) that was the most effective back (looked a lot like a mini Henry as RC has mentioned for a couple years now) and he was getting mixed in a lot more in the 2nd half. Jeremy McNichols (7-24-0, 3-11-0/3) will likely continue to split with one of those two though because he is the passing game back.
Based on what I saw here I don't think anyone runs away with the job even though if it was up to me Foreman would be my new 15 carry a game lead back. He's the lottery ticket if you are so inclined.
--AJ Brown (5-42-0/11) is so obviously the #1 receiver here it's not even funny. Julio Jones (4-35-0/4) is a shell of himself. Brown is playing good ball. The trouble for him is that without Henry, defenses are not afraid of the run and can key on him much more. Those inside slants that he normally feasts on suddenly have a lot more linebackers crowding them, and Tannehill, while still a good QB, doesn't have the same windows to throw into now. I love the volume Brown is getting, and I think he'll be fine the rest of the year, but maybe expect more WR1.5 than the top 10 guy everyone hoped for.
--On that note, Ryan Tannehill (19-27 for 143 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) is probably out of the QB2 discussion. He's still an above average QB, but it's become clear that Henry's presence really boosted his production.
--One interesting note that RC touched on in an update, was that Tennessee receiver Josh Reynolds (also formerly a Ram) was released this week and claimed by the Lions...where he reunites with Jared Goff from his Rams days. I absolutely love this move for the Lions. Reynolds has turned into a very solid receiver and he could immediately become their best guy. It will be tough sledding to be the featured guy on a weak passing attack, but there's some hope here. You can ignore it in redraft for the moment but keep an eye out here if he starts to trend upwards. In dynasty this is a nice deep stash move.
--Matt Stafford (31-48 for 294 yards, 1 TD/2 INT) had an off game. Everyone does occasionally. He's fine, still an almost guaranteed top 5 lock at QB.
--Don't look now, but Robert Woods (7-98-0/10) is suddenly the #12 WR in ppr leagues for the year. It's not flashy production, but he's getting his usual 4-5 catches for 60 yards and a TD chance every week. This year it's been a little more inconsistent usage than in the past because he's just another cog in the machine, but it's working and he also gets a handoff or two every game to bolster his numbers. Not bad.
--The guy who gets shafted for fantasy numbers most weeks in this offense is Van Jefferson (3-41-0/7). I know Woods is better for fantasy, but Jefferson still looks more important for the offense to function at its peak. If Woods is out with injury, nobody knows the difference, but if Jefferson had to sit out suddenly Stafford doesn't have his field stretcher anymore and the range of the offense shrinks.
--Darrell Henderson (11-55-0) is still one of my favorite buys in redraft if you can still trade this late. The Rams are rarely going to be down like this where they have to mostly abandon the run.
IDP Notes
--Chris Collinsworth pissed me off again this game (he has a habit of it) when he said that Kupp versus Elijah Molden (8 tackles) in the slot was the biggest mismatch on the field and the Rams hadn't exploited it yet.
That's because it's not the biggest mismatch on the field. Molden is already one of the better slot corners in the league and he's still getting his feet under him. In the past four games, Molden has played 80% of the snaps three times, and in all three games he had 8 or more tackles each time. Guess Collinsworth didn't watch every snap of Molden's from college and his young pro career...otherwise he wouldn't have said something so idiotic.
Snap Counts of Interest
78 = Cooper Kupp
78 = Robert Woods
75 = Van Jefferson
45 = AJ Brown
43 = Julio Jones
22 = Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
42 = Geoff Swaim
27 = MyCole Pruitt
26 = Jeremy McNichols
19 = Adrian Peterson
12 = D'Onta Foreman
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Steelers 29, Bears 27
This game was such a snooze fest between two boring ass teams for the first 55 minutes of the game that I turned it off well before that. Little did I know the last 5 minutes would be some of the craziest all year.
The Steelers led 14-3 at the half. It wasn't what I would call a dominant half for them, but they appeared to be the better team by a decent margin.
A good way into the second half and the score was 20-6 Steelers with no hope in sight for the Bears. They couldn't move the ball and couldn't take it away from Pittsburgh. But then David Montgomery got going and suddenly it was 20-13 and the door opened a crack. Pittsburgh would extend their lead to 10 but a fumbled ball on special teams got picked up by the Bears for a TD and suddenly the Steelers were sweating a 23-20 game.
Pitt would kick another field goal to make it 26-20, but Chicago put together their best drive of the day to go up 27-26 with 1:45 to go. It was too much time, however, and the Steelers calmly marched down the field for a FG to take the lead 29-27.
The Bears had only seconds remaining but picked up enough yards to give themselves a chance at a 65 yard field goal. The ball clanked off the crossbar, inches too short and the Steelers held on for the win.
Despite the exciting finish, these are still two boring, not great teams. Both have decent defenses and terrible offenses dragging them down. Roethlisberger is beyond done. It's just sad now. Watching him put every ounce of strength into a 30 yard wounded duck is pathetic. And Justin Fields is just not a good QB. The physical gifts are nice but underused, and while he is capable of the occasional great throw, they simply come far too infrequently and are mixed in with a bunch of terrible, rushed, inaccurate throws.
There is a group of analysts that rush to proclaim his obvious greatness every time he does something marginally good, and I believe they are spurred to do this because they believe he has been unfairly attacked for whatever reason. In their minds his greatness is beyond question. It's obvious that he's amazing, and so whenever anyone questions his ability, that person must have some ulterior motive. It's a problem with society in general these days, but also beginning to crop up frequently in football analysis these days.
For example, PFF somehow gave Fields their highest grade for a QB this week. You have got to be kidding me. That is utterly ridiculous, and I challenge anyone to try and explain how that is accurate. Right after this information was released, the pro-Fields crowd began howling that the Bears had their QB1 for the next 15 years and he was better than Mahomes...blah blah blah. It's a bunch of drivel. Fields is one of the worst 5 starting QB's right this second, and I don't see much hope for him to improve.
The Steelers move to 5-3 and are without a doubt one of the worst teams with a record that good. Other than the Bills, every team they've beaten was either bad or mediocre or very injured (Browns). The good teams they just lose to because they don't have the firepower to compete (or rather they do have the firepower but Ben can't/won't get it to them). I don't think they can keep up with the Browns and Ravens in the division or possibly even the Bengals. I see them headed for an 8-9 or 9-8 record and possible last place finish in the division.
The Bears fall to 3-6. They aren't one of the absolute worst teams in the league, but they aren't far off either. If the defense wasn't decent they would be in Houston territory. Fields isn't getting any better either, so I don't see how they finish with more than 5 wins or so. It's hard to win games when you can barely score 17 points on offense most games.
Fantasy Notes
--Woo boy we need to get Najee Harris (22-62-1, 3-16-0/3) some more touches! He's obviously a huge weapon with his 2.8 ypc average. Of course, reality doesn't matter for fantasy. Najee is just another big, average RB with decent hands, but because the Steelers believe he's a weapon, he gets used like one, and usage is the #1 key to fantasy stats. He's as safe an RB1 as you'll find this year. However, 2022 is a whole different animal, and I can already see him being a huge disappointment after he gets drafted 1st overall.
--Chase Claypool (3-30-0/5) hurt his foot towards the end of this game and will likely be out several weeks. Of course, he was just another WR4 with the occasional splash week anyways, so it's not like you're losing much. Claypool is dead so long as Ben is there, but if Pittsburgh ever replaces him with an actual QB then Claypool rockets up to the top WR in all formats. He is the single most physically gifted WR in the league today and a caliber of weapon we haven't seen since Calvin Johnson. He should be acquired cheaply in all dynasty leagues simply because the upside is so high.
--People are joking that Diontae Johnson (5-56-0/6) will get a million targets without Claypool playing, but Claypool wasn't a big part of this offense anyways. Nothing changes for Diontae. He's always been Ben's bff and will get his usual 12 targets for 8 catches and less than 10 ypc most weeks.
--Some analysts are pushing James Washington (1-42-0/3) as a guy to pick up to replace Claypool, but what's the point? Washington is a deep ball guy and Ben can't throw deep anymore. Their one connection here was busted coverage and Ben threw the worst deep pass I've seen outside of a Darnold game. The only reason it was completed is because the coverage was actually in good position but the ball was so underthrown that only Washington could come back to it. Also Claypool wasn't getting many targets anyways and wasn't useful in fantasy, so I fail to see why tiny little Washington would suddenly work where 6'5” 242 lb Claypool couldn't.
--The player you want with CC out in redraft now is Pat Freiermuth (5-43-2/6), Ben's other best friend, but you won't be able to acquire him after this 2 TD game. Freiermuth has seen his role expand for weeks now, and it was just a matter of time for him to have a game like this. He's a safe outlet for Ben when Diontae isn't open and looks like a TE1 the rest of the year.
--I've hammered Justin Fields (17-29 for 291 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 8-45-0) enough at this point that I'm not going to beat a dead horse. He's not a good QB, although he can be plausible if given enough protection as most QB's can. For fantasy though I'm a buyer in redraft if you need a safe QB2. Since he started running last week, things are opening up for him just like I theorized and the running points give him a high floor.
--David Montgomery (13-63-0, 2-17-0/2) returned from a multiple week injury with no practice time and looked as good as he ever has. Tell me again why practice is so important. He walked right back in and took most of the carries with very little Khalil Herbert (4-13-0) mixed in despite how great he's been. Matt Nagy is such a genius.
--Darnell Mooney (3-41-1/6, 1-15-1) is the WR to own here and has been ever since Fields took over. He is the WR1 not Allen Robinson (4-68-0/6). Robinson might be a WR 2.5-3 now instead of the nothing he has been all year. If he's on waivers and you're desperate then go for it, but don't actually spend resources to acquire him.
I called Cole Kmet (6-87-0/8) a slug earlier this year, and at the time he was moving like one. This is the first time I've actually seen him look somewhat plausible. He's still not the next great TE that's for sure, but he's something now instead of nothing. His numbers this game weren't really anything he was doing so much as Fields running around and finding him on broken plays down the field. I don't think you can count on this connection every week though. There are plenty of other TE's I'd rather have even if you're desperate.
IDP Notes
--Not sure how he's been flying under the radar since he was such a huge name just a year or two ago, but Minkah Fitzpatrick (8 tackles) is playing solid football as always and has been quite good for fantasy as well. He has 8 or more tackles in four of his last five games.
Snap Counts of Interest
65 = Diontae Johnson
58 = Chase Claypool
41 = James Washington
26 = Ray-Ray McCloud
51 = Pat Freiermuth
37 = Zach Gentry
53 = David Montgomery
10 = Khalil Herbert
50 = Darnell Mooney
48 = Allen Robinson
32 = Marquise Goodwin
48 = Cole Kmet
22 = Jesse James
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 9: Colts 45, Jets 30
Indy came out running the ball down the Jets throats, but NY had a new QB playing lights out football, the savior that was finally making New York football competitive and fun to watch, Mike White.
White would quickly tie the game up after the Colts took an early lead...and then he hurt his hand hitting a helmet while passing and was done for the day.
You can imagine how it went from there. The Colts just ran the ball at will and it was over in the blink of an eye...until it wasn't. Somehow, the Jets clawed their way back into the game and nearly had a chance to cover/make it a one possession game at the end, but a Josh Johnson pass was batted into the air for the game sealing interception. Ball game.
I think the mainstream takeaway from this game will be that the Colts smashed the lowly Jets and are back to being a dominant team. The Jets will get a pat on the head for beating Cincy (which does look a lot less impressive now) and be dismissed yet again. I think that's an oversimplification.
Yes, the Colts dominated here and are starting to look like a real team, but Jonathan Taylor and the run game are hiding some very real deficiencies here, namely Carson Wentz, who continues to look like the shaky QB we came to know from his days in Philly. The guy operates fine most of the time but still makes far too many completely baffling decisions that lead to turnovers. If the Colts do somehow make the playoffs Wentz is going to be the death of them. You can't count on him to play solidly enough for 3-4 straight games.
The defense isn't a problem exactly, but they aren't helping matters much either. They should have crushed the Jets without White, but instead they ultimately allowed 30 points and it should have been more.
They are now 4-5 after a disastrous start, but can't seem to make up any ground on Tennessee who keeps winning as well. A month ago I thought the schedule would take down the Titans and allow Indy to catch up, but that simply hasn't happened. I'm not sure Indy can catch them now, but it's still a possibility, especially with Derrick Henry out.
I don't think the Jets should be summarily dismissed either. They lost their QB yet again, and while it's impossible to say that they could have kept it close with him, it's hard not to believe it would have at least been more competitive. White looks like the real deal, and if they can get him back they suddenly look better than some of the other teams with similar records like Jacksonville, Philly, and Miami.
Fantasy Notes
--Mike White (7-11 for 95 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) has now played 9 quarters of football and thrown for 702 yards, 5 TD/4 INT, with a 72.7% completion percentage, and several of the interceptions weren't really his fault. It's a small sample size, but I've been impressed with what I've seen for the most part, although he did have quite a few inaccurate throws against the Patriots. That hasn't been the case in his other two games.
It's impossible to make any solid judgment on him right now, but I'm inclined to think that he can play, and I think he's earned the right to get another look over Zach Wilson. I think Saleh is going to agree. Unfortunately, the Bills are up next and are probably going to be incredibly pissed off after losing to the Jaguars, so I do not envy whichever QB gets the start. If White does start and gets beat up he's liable to lose that job and never get it back. That would be unfair and a very unfortunate turn of events for him, but that's the way the NFL typically goes for players that weren't drafted highly.
--Taking over for White was longtime NFL veteran Josh Johnson (27-41 for 317 yards, 3 TD/1 INT, 4-18-0). He's been a quality backup for various teams over the years and always an underrated player in my opinion. He had a quality fantasy day here in garbage time and very nearly got the Jets back into this at the end. If he starts against Buffalo though I don't see any chance of him repeating this performance.
--If you caught RC's stream before the game, you probably heard me opine that I was considering starting Elijah Moore (7-84-2/8) for the week. Well, I ended up not starting him and immediately regretted that decision. Moore is the top guy here now. What that's worth in fantasy is hard to say and likely depends on the QB. You ideally want White going forward. Just be careful with your expectations for Moore. He scored 2 TD's on a solo night game so he's going to be really hot now after all the preseason hype around him. To me he looks ok, but honestly I don't see special yet, just a fast guy getting good targets.
--The best WR in my eyes for NY is Keelan Cole (5-66-0/8). He came up with a couple of spectacular receptions here. Unfortunately, even though he tied for the lead in targets with Moore, it didn't look like he was the focus of the offense, just happened to be open for a lot of garbage time catches against soft zone coverages. I don't think you can count on Cole in this offense right now.
--He'll get overshadowed by the Moore performance, but Jamison Crowder (5-38-0/7) is still usable in desperation starts in ppr leagues. He's on the field a ton and still getting plenty of targets. He's averaged 7 targets, 4 catches, and about 48 yards per game over his last five games. Not many TD's, but if you need a few safe ppr points Crowder can help out there.
--Shockingly, Denzel Mims (1-20-0/5) was on the field a ton here and actually got 5 targets. He looks like an afterthought among the pass catchers, but the increase in snaps is interesting. Maybe he's working his way out of the doghouse? He's easily the biggest, most physically talented receiver on the roster, and if he can develop a connection with White that could be pretty good for fantasy. We're not there yet, but I'll be keeping an eye on this moving forward.
--The guy you can count on in this offense, if White is the QB, is rookie RB Michael Carter (13-49-0, 1-37-0/2). He is the lead back now for sure and a RB2 in ppr with White.
--Ty Johnson (4-21-0, 2-40-1/3) could also be FF usable in ppr if White comes back. He's going to take 5-8 carries most games and add 4 or 5 catches too.
--I guess I was dead wrong about Jonathan Taylor (19-172-2, 2-28-0/2). Apparently he can average 9 ypc every week! It's been a nice run and the team definitely knows now that he's their best player, but you should definitely temper your expectations just a bit. That average has to come down most games. It's just not sustainable. The good news is that the Indy offensive line is now fully healthy and are absolutely mauling people. The Jets were a particularly soft run defense, but it doesn't really matter that much. Taylor has made his case and his touches, which were a question early in the year, are now a certainty. He's going to tough the ball and produce. Top 5 RB lock.
--Michael Pittman (5-64-1/6) wasn't needed as much here in a blowout but continues to produce like a WR1 because he is now. Wentz isn't looking for anyone else the way he looks for Pittman.
--Nyheim Hines (6-74-1, 4-34-0/6) had another one of his huge games and will be a hot waiver wire pickup this week. Somebody will start him and get 3 points next week before dropping him immediately after. I wouldn't bother with him. With Taylor's emergence he's dropped in priority on this offense.
IDP Notes
--Jets safety Ashtyn Davis (10 tackles) has 24 total tackles over his last three games as a full time starter. He's playing well and could get another boost if Marcus Maye is out for a while.
--Quick, who's the leading tackler for the Colts? Did you say Darius Leonard? You would be incorrect. It's actually his partner, Bobby Okereke (11 tackles, 1 pd) that leads the team with 78, 11 more than Leonard. Leonard is making hay causing turnovers this year, but Okereke is a very solid starter himself and quickly becoming a strong producer in IDP leagues.
--The third leading tackler for the Colts is another very good FF producer this year, safety Kenny Moore (9 tackles). He's only 4 behind Leonard on the year and has at least 7 tackles in each of his 5 games. He's had less than 7 tackles only twice all year.
Snap Counts of Interest
53 = Michael Pittman
52 = Zach Pascal
23 = Ashton Dulin
43 = Jonathan Taylor
28 = Nyheim Hines
42 = Jack Doyle
38 = Mo Alie-Cox
61 = Jamison Crowder
46 = Denzel Mims
46 = Elijah Moore
38 = Keelan Cole
48 = Ryan Griffin
15 = Tyler Kroft
45 = Michael Carter
32 = Ty Johnson
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Rams 37, Jags 7
No one was surprised by this outcome. It was kinda close/back and forth a bit, neither team playing all that well, until 2-minutes before the half…when LAR got the ball for a 2-minute and raced down for a field goal to take a two-score lead. The Rams then came out of halftime and went right down and scored and the floodgates opened. The Rams did not play well, but I assume they were a bit sloppy because they knew they were winning that game all along. The Jags are a helpless lot.
The Rams are now (8-4) and playing a huge MNF game vs. Arizona. Win, and division title hopes abound. Lose and they are in the wild card chase for the rest of the season. I believe they get beaten soundly this week (14) but will hit 10 wins, at least, and get a wild card (where hopefully they will be trounced…I hate what the Rams are doing in 2021, sorry).
The Jaguars are now (2-10) and are sinking to the top laughingstock team in the NFL. Urban Meyer has proven to be the worst personnel manager, the worst in-game tactician, and the worst personality of all the NFL head coaches – quite a triple crown feat for his first year. The fact that ownership put up with his bar incident and everything else means the Jags are now the clear worst ownership in the league…the Jets and Bears can rejoice! This team is a full-on disaster, and they are so over their coach that the once kinda good things about them (blocking, D-Line) developing in the middle of the season are starting to collapse.
The Jaguars play the Jets and Texans ahead, but I would bet they lose to both and thus have a chance to secure that #1 pick…which won’t matter, because they’ll butcher it.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The most interesting thing about this game, for me, was the RB situation for Jacksonville…not the Rams DHendo injury/Sony Michel start.
Early in the game, James Robinson (8-24-0, 1-11-0/4) fumbled and was essentially benched. JRob has been fighting a heel issue the past few weeks to even work his way into playing, and the Jags best offensive weapon pushed through again this week…and for that, he got benched for fumbling…and was brought back in to start the 2nd-half, and then out again for stretches of time – but then a mild controversy erupted this week because JRob was brought back in for touches late in the game down 30 despite that being a good time to rest the heel issue. He’s basically got treated like a jobber…after fighting to play through a heel issue.
The players are noticing this Urban mismanagement (that Urban passive-aggressive ‘blamed’ on the RB coach) and are full scale quitting on the head coach…they hate him, you can see it their play…and now even milquetoast Trevor Lawrence is chirping a bit on the JRob situation.
All that to say: Robinson still has a heel issue. He was limited Wednesday. He didn’t practice Thursday, but did practice full Friday. I wonder how much JRob is inclined to fight his way back into the lineup for this sinking ship that just disrespected him? Something to watch if you’re a Robinson owner…and that Carlos Hyde has some deep-sleeper grab and hold appeal, maybe. The Jags stink, so their main RB can only be so good. We are taking down JRob’s projections for the rest of the season.
-- There’s an RB (mild) controversy with the other team in this game, as well. Darrell Henderson got hurt and didn’t play Week 13, while Sony Michel (24-121-1, 3-8-0/4) ran for 100+ yards against the quitting Jags…which is good enough for the media/fans to fire up an RB controversy.
No achievement is greater for fans than a running back rushing for 100+ yards in a game. (95 yards is boring, no big deal. BUT 100+ is pure football bliss and clinches your greatness as a player…for that week, which is all that matters to the media/fans. Doesn’t matter it took 24 carries and was against the Jags.
The big question is – was Sean McVay sucked into this too, as he often is? I don’t know…I don’t think so. McVay usually blathers on to the press about things he loves or doesn’t. With Michel he’s been more patting him on the head.
Henderson is not 100% but should play this week. If he does, I suspect Henderson will be the lead as usual but Michel will sprinkle in and could got hot and steal more time/touches, but that intent is to push Henderson if fully healthy…is my read of this situation. Henderson not being 100% can alter that. We’ll see if he practices fully this week or not.
-- Can I just say how awful Trevor Lawrence (16-28 for 145 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) is for a ‘generational QB’. What a scouting malfeasance, once again, by your trusted football gods.
Zach Wilson was better this week vs. Philly than Lawrence will ever be in his career, and Wilson is not close to hitting his stride yet.
Lawrence has 1 TD pass in his last 5 games. He can’t even garbage time a TD pass. The Jaguars have scored 10 or fewer points in a game in four of their last 6 games.
So, Laquon Treadwell (4-62-0/5) is rising in targets here for the past few weeks, but you won’t get much more than 10 PPR points in a game because the odds he catches a TD pass are so low.
-- You’re better off with Rams #3 WR Van Jefferson (6-41-1/8)…who is still plagued with drops issues, but he plays for the Rams who have Matt Stafford and OBJ, whom the media adores, so it doesn’t matter because everything Rams is golden (for the media). All the attention Kupp-OBJ get is a beautiful thing for Van J. to be able to get open on lesser coverage and make plays/FF points in this offense despite his issues catching the ball recently
-- Three IDP notes…
1) CB Nevin Lawson (7 tackles) is now starting for the Jags at CB. Could be temporary through their DB injuries. But he is starting and has 6.5 tackles, 0.50 PDs in his two recent starts.
2) Rudy Ford (6 tackles, 1 TFL, 0.5 sacks) is the apple of Urban Meyer’s eye…the only guy Urban seems to have a connection with. Ford went from newfound starter to part time player over the past 4 weeks, but Ford started this game and put up some IDP numbers in his joker-type position he plays. If Ford is starting, he’ll put up decent IDP numbers…but we don’t know what his status is now, it changes every 2 weeks it seems.
3) As I touched on earlier, when Sean McVay ‘likes’ something he blabbers it to the press every chance he gets. He’s the most loudmouth coach in the NFL. His new love affair (I hope Matt S. isn’t jealous) is with rookie LB Ernest Jones (9 tackles, 1 PD, I INT, 0.5 sacks).
McVay has moved/traded Kenny Young, and quasi-benched Troy Reeder to now push this rookie…that’s something for IDP.
I can tell you as a scout, I don’t get it…not at all. I didn’t see anything with Jones in college and haven’t seen anything great from him in the pros…not enough to warrant this red carpet treatment. He’s got the mindset and effort, but not the talent/athleticism in my book. We’ll see if he changes my mind ahead but right now, I don’t get it – and it’s a problem for this defense, but good for his IDP hopes.
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Kupp
53 = Van J
36 = OBJ
16 = Skowronek
29 = Hyde
26 = JRob
55 = Treadwell
49 = Marvin J
31 = Shenault
16 = T Austin
3 = Mickens
