R.C. Fischer

FFM

07 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Steelers 20, Ravens 19

Everything you wanted to know about these two teams happened on the first drive for each…

Baltimore moved the ball right down the field on their opening drive, and then they got down into the red zone and Lamar Jackson threw a ridiculous interception…another ridiculous one…8 TDs/10 INTs his last six games, but the media will not say ‘boo’ about it. Lamar is probably the most protected by the media QB in the NFL, for reasons I cannot comprehend. Strike that, LJax is #2. Matt Stafford is #1. Sam Darnold is #3 tied with Jameis Winston.

Pittsburgh’s turn for their first drive. Najee run for 5 yards. Najee run for 4 yards. 3rd & 1, Najee run for -1-yard, punt. The typical Steelers offense: ineffective Najee on the ground, especially on a short yardage conversion need, all happening on your TV screen while the game analysts/announcers coo about how great Najee’s rookie season has been and that he’s going to be an elite RB for a long time in this league…as he slams his way towards another under 3.50 yards per rush game with a lot of carries and less than 70-75 yards rushing each game and likely with no TDs.

Lamar turnovers and Najee ineffectiveness are the hallmark of these two teams' 2021 seasons on offense.

Everything you want to know about football fans and the football media happened on the last play of the game…

The Ravens ran a 2+ minute final drive, down 7, for a TD with seconds remaining. Ravens now down 20-19, and they decide to ‘go for two’…a gutsy call to go for the win/loss.

Whenever a team ‘goes for it’, like this, if they convert…the coach is hailed as a genius, a tough as nails believer in his men and master of analytics.

Whenever a team ‘goes for it’, like this, and they fail to convert…the coach is an idiot, and WE (the critics/fans) would NEVER go for it there for XYZ football reasons. And THIS is the reason why coaches aren’t more daring, and why GMs don’t make trades – football fans are insufferable, constantly pointing out the after-the-fact way it should’ve gone (when the thing failed).

Before we get too uppity…FF players do the same thing. Those that are out of the playoffs right now, and those that ultimately don’t make it, or those that do and lose first-round of the playoffs, will eventually/immediately go into a whole next year game plan on how they are never going to do ____ (thing that didn’t work) again and they are definitely going to do ____ (thing that in retrospect did work that season).

On that vibe, looking back the past six seasons, the NFL MVP from each season…was an FF disappointment or total FF-flop the following year. We see a lot of ‘was amazing for a season’ events that we then chase for the reversal. Michael Thomas after that wow 2019 season…Christian McCaffrey after that wow 2019 season. Alvin Kamara was the top PPR back last year, injured/disappointment this year. Devante Adams scored 18 TDs last season, and no one could stop his TD rampage…he has 5 TDs this season.

It’s not as easy going back through in December and lamenting the players you should’ve taken in August redrafts. It’s always the perfect plan when your mind races to beat yourself up by not only constantly reminding yourself of your FF-mistakes, but then daydreaming up the perfect alternatives that could’ve happened to double-down on the pain…you coulda had the perfect draft, but you didn’t. A perfect draft would be like hitting the lottery – assembling all the top scorers for one particular season and none of them get hurt and/or didn’t have their QB get hurt to affect their outputs, etc., is a pipe dream.

We are going to make bad trades (sometimes we acquire the player about to tear their ACL or chased a hot player who suddenly went cold). We are going to pick ‘A’ redraft pick or waiver option (for logical reasons at the time), when ‘B’ wound up the right option in retrospect. We double remember every bad move, and instantly forget/discount every good move.

I can’t tell you how many people in Nov.-Dec. 2021 have lamented to me about “I should have never picked or traded for _____. I’ll never do that again.” Looking at their lineup, I’ll then point out that grabbing Cordarrelle Patterson was a good move by them, and they’ll retort…”Yeah, but that was total luck. That's one in a million.”

Football fans, Fantasy owners…the real battle is not fully in scouting and studying, it’s a battle for your mind that’s always chasing fairy tales and trying to chase away nightmares, but you vividly remember ALL the bad (and inflate it) and never remember or credit any of the good. You’ve never won a Fantasy week in your life that wasn’t luck, but all your losses are because of XYZ mistake you made (listening to me, listening to ESPN, flipping a coin, going with your gut).

Where was I?

Oh, don’t be afraid to 'go for it' chasing wins in the NFL or FF…because you’re worried that you’ll lose a game/a showdown/a playoff/a season…fearing all the criticism, from your own mind (in Fantasy) from the fans/media (in the NFL). I realize 95-99% of the people who read that last sentence will not be swayed. Fantasy loves misery and lamenting in reflecting on the past...especially whatever just happened last week. I keep giving this message over and over, hoping it eventually sinks in to the few. Not because I’m some genius…I just have 10+ years and million Fantasy conversations and actual game play in this arena to have it beaten into my head.

To bring it all home…the most complaints, the most proclamations about ‘Next year…’, come from Fantasy owners who have winning records today and are headed to the playoffs. Teams out of it today, they are happily put out of their misery – no more weekly anxiety, now they can get to their favorite mode…hyper/microanalysis of the prior season and 9 months of planning where there are no games and where there is no more losing. Teams still in it – have all week to worry about losing and their season ending now. Praying to win but expecting to lose.

The Fantasy battle is a battle for the mind as much as it is scouting/lineup strategy.

The next few Fantasy weeks – it’s time to win or die trying. It’s not time to try and not-lose. It’s time to go for wins. It’s do-or-die season now.

Baltimore loses a game they could’ve won, but they played equally as bad/sloppy/sluggish as the Steelers and failed the 2-point conversion and lost to fall to (8-4). This Ravens team is so bad for a ‘top’ AFC team. They are a .500 or less team that has gotten VERY lucky this season. Losing Marlon Humphrey is more bad news for their playoff hopes. If Baltimore loses to Cleveland Week 14, it’s possible they lose their next 4 games, or three of 4 (CLE, GB, CIN, LAR) and are scrambling for a wild card in the end…but this AFC North is so bad that 10 wins might win it, and the Ravens are closest to getting to the 10 wins. Beat CLE Week 14, and they’re pretty golden.

The Steelers are now (6-5-1), the worst team with a winning record in the NFL. They have a chance to lose out (MIN-TEN-KC-CLE-BAL). At a minimum, it will be very hard for them to get to 9 wins, which is where the wild card will likely be low-end.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Diontae Johnson (8-105-2/11) was a Fantasy MVP for some of us this week. I thought this was going to be a tough matchup (BAL has a history of shutting off Diontae), but I didn’t fully realize the Ravens get amnesia week-to-week in 2021.

Remember Week 1 when Darren Waller caught a billion passes on the Ravens and Baltimore would never adjust, then did adjust some in the 2nd-half with double teams, then stopped doing it (again) and then Waller went back to burning them for a Raiders win? Well, somehow Diontae was not being covered by Marlon Humphrey here…their best corner. Diontae kept getting nice single coverage from #2/#3 CBs, and despite the fact that DJ is the guy who is the only one to stop/worry about on the Steelers, because that’s where Ben throws it all the time, the Ravens never adjusted, and Humphrey made sure the very dangerous James Washington (0-0-0/1) was locked down. Well, mission accomplished…and a loss.

Diontae is pushing towards the season-long top 3 PPR scoring per game WR in Fantasy.

 -- Chase Claypool (3-52-0/3) is nothing but a WR3-4 flyer. He has 1 receiving TD this season…that’s how poorly run this passing game is.

He has 2 receiving TDs in his last 16 regular season games. Absolutely pathetic. A waste of one of the great WR talents in the game.

 -- Pat Freiermuth (3-26-0/4) got good looks early in the game, and then kinda disappeared during the Diontae show. Nothing seems wrong, just wasn’t his kinda FF game flow.

 -- Lamar Jackson (23-37 for 253 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 8-55-0) has played 11 games this season and in 9 of those games he’s had exactly 1 TD pass…9 TDs/11 INTs.

He has not rushed for a TD since Week 2…10 of 11 games with no rushing TDs.

Lamar is becoming a QB2 right before our eyes…with QB1 blip upside hopes any given week. Remember when he was the future of football and Fantasy after 2019?

 -- The Ravens backfield is all Devonta Freeman (14-52-1, 5-45-0/8) now. How that’s possible, I do not know. Latavius Murray 2-1-0, 2-34-0/2) took all of two carries here.

Ty’Son Williams was inactive, and Nate McCrary (1-0-0) was promoted…and McCrary looks like he’s running into a 100mph wind gust.

It’s stunning to behold how awful this backfield is. For FF purposes, it’s Freeman only these days.

 -- Rashod Bateman (0-0-0/1) is a victim of Lamar Jackson. Nice WR, in the wrong place at the wrong time.

 -- The Ravens-DST was already about useless for FF but losing Marlon Humphrey should mean open season even more on the Ravens defense by opposing offenses. They are not that viable a DST against CLE Week 14…and then GB-CIN-LAR Weeks 15-17, no thanks. 

Rodgers-Burrow-Stafford benefit ahead from this Ravens downturn coming.

 -- The Steelers-DST played one of their best games of the year. Not good enough a unit to make me want to play them vs. Minnesota, at MIN Week 14…but Week 15 v. TEN is a possibility. Week 16 at KC is probably not, but these days with KC…who knows?

Snap Counts of Interest:

57 = Diontae

40 = Ray-Ray

38 = Claypool

22 = Washington

51 = Devonta

14 = Latavius

02 = McCrary

64 = Marquise

44 = Duvernay

34 =Watkins

33 = Bateman

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

06 December 2021

A look back at the Chargers 2021 season via RC's weekly game recaps/analysis with 2022 notes/comments added to this review...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

05 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Washington 17, Seahawks 15 

Weird game. Seattle was the first team to score a TD to take a 7-3 lead, but Washington would respond shortly before the half. Instead of taking a 10-3 lead however, Seattle blocked the extra point attempt and returned it for a 2-point conversion to give us a 9-9 tie.

After the half it was all Washington until the final minutes when Seattle would fail a conversion to tie the game, then the onside kick attempt was overturned after it appeared that the Seahawks had recovered it.

Washington has now won 3 in a row to get to 5-6 with some hope still alive to take down Dallas for the division. They have 5 divisional games left including two with Dallas, so things are still very much up in the air. I'm guessing they don't have enough firepower to beat Dallas out, but it's a scrappy offense and the defense has been improving the past few weeks. They've held their last 3 opponents to a combined 55 points (18.3 ppg). If they can keep that up they might have a chance.

This loss drops Seattle to 3-8 and their season is over. It was over from the moment Wilson injured his finger. So how does Pete Carroll respond? By signing Adrian Peterson to quote “help them win now.” Somebody needs to explain the situation to Pete I guess.

One of two things is going to happen in Seattle this off-season. Either Carroll is fired or Wilson leaves in free agency. My guess is Carroll is fired. That's the easier, more digestible move for PR. But if they trade Russell and then go on a losing streak for a few years with Pete it's going to get the entire front office fired. They can't afford that. If the situation can be salvaged with Russell it will be. They'll give him near full control to bring in whatever coach or players he wants. Prepare for a bumpy off-season Seahawks fans.

Fantasy Notes

--Damn you RC. You talked me into trading Antonio Gibson (29-111-0, 7-35-0/7) a few weeks ago right before Washington decided to recommit to making Gibson their version of McCaffrey. I can't say I honestly blame you though. Up until that point all the signs were that Gibson was being phased out, he might be shut down..etc. And then magically he starts getting 20+ touches a game. You can't plan for wild swings like that.

Unless something changes I don't foresee this slowing down. This is the kind of work I was hoping for when I drafted Gibson. He's the discount version of McCaffrey or Taylor right now. All the workload but with a bad offensive line and offense so he's not very efficient or scoring much. When he does though it's going to be sweet. Gibson very well might win some leagues on this final stretch of 6 games.

*RC NOTE: Damn me, too…

I take full responsibility. Isn’t that what high-profile people guilty of something say to appease everyone? Can I say, “It’s not who I am?” Would that work? No? It’s OK, I’m not sorry...I mean, I’m sorry this didn’t work out (like people caught in stuff are sorry...yeah, they’re sorry they got caught) but I’m not sorry for making the move for what I believed to be coming. 

I thought Washington was dead three weeks ago, no way they ever get back in the playoff race, they just lost Chase Young, one more loss likely would have prompted a further Gibson shutdown and then possible full shutdown to get his fractured shin healed -- instead they beat Tampa Bay, returning Cam/Carolina, and then returning Russ/Seattle. I didn't think they’d win more than a game in this stretch, instead they mowed it all down (kinda, could’ve lost the last two). 

I played the Gibson card betting against Washington ever in the playoff hunt. They did the opposite, and now I’m burned by Gibson moves I made just ahead of a quasi-breakout. Rewind the universe back to Week 9, their bye week before the Tampa game, let’s play these games all over again -- I’d bet against Washington and Gibson all over again. 

Sometimes you hit on ‘12’ and draw a face card. 

--Logan Thomas (3-31-0/6) is back and right back into his old role. By now a lot of people will have forgotten about him so he might be available on waivers if you need a TE. Thomas is as good a shot as any. I like his volume and situation to be a top 3-5 TE the rest of the schedule.

--Curtis Samuel returned too but wasn't thrown right back into his #2 role immediately. It was likely just an attempt to ease him back into things. Look for his role to grow the next few weeks. Don't think he's redraft usable yet, but we might look up in 2-3 weeks and he's a WR2.5-3 option especially if the staff starts to give him some carries with McKissic out.

--There was a lot of ink spilled after this game about the Seahawks not getting the ball to DK Metcalf (1-13-0/4) more and quite frankly it's justified. There is no excuse for not throwing a pass to your best player for an entire half and only 4 for the entire game. DK is one of the most physically dominant players in the entire league. Manufacture something. Throw him a screen. It's really not hard. After the outcry here I would expect a big game coming for Metcalf against the 49'ers this week.

--It should go without saying, but please do not pick up Adrian Peterson. He got cut from Tennessee for a reason. There's nothing left. And he's certainly not walking into the worst offensive line situation in the league and making it better. There's no hope for any RB behind this sad excuse for a line. Alex Collins is done now too if that wasn't obvious.

--I hear lots of consternation about Russell Wilson (20-31 for 247 yards, 2 TD/0 INT) right now, but I don't see much wrong with him. He overthrows the occasional ball high now, likely a lingering effect of the finger injury, but the biggest issue is the line isn't giving him any time to throw. That isn't getting fixed anytime soon. Wouldn't be surprised if we see Russell take off in fantasy over the last few weeks though as the coaching staff unleashes him to throw every play in a desperate attempt to save their jobs. Watch.

*RC NOTE: Our internal metrics have only the Denver Broncos as a worse pass protection O-Line than Seattle. This Russ ‘issue’ and DKM target problem -- it may not get fixed until they play a weak pass rush/secondary combo...and that doesn't happen until Weeks 16-17 (CHI-DET).

Snap Counts of Interest

28 = DeeJay Dallas

19 = Alex Collins

66 = Logan Thomas

48 = John Bates

57 = Antonio Gibson

33 = JD McKissic

3 = Jaret Patterson

76 = Terry McLaurin

61 = DeAndre Carter

32 = Adam Humphries

20 = Curtis Samuel

R.C. Fischer

FFM

04 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Packers 36, Rams 28

I’m not sure that I’m processing this game properly. The Packers won…they pretty much led the whole game. The Packers looked like the superior team, but then the Rams were just hanging around in this game constantly. The Rams gave the Packers 3 turnovers, and they were key…and yet the Packers never really put this game away. Again, my eyes were very much ‘the Packers were better’…but I may be wishing losses on the Rams so hard that I had green- and gold-colored glasses on for the rewatch/study.

40-to-20 minute time of possession Packers.

3-to-1 turnover edge for the Packers.

38% on 3rd/4th-downs Packers, 27% Rams

399-to-353 total yards for the Packers.

4-to-3 Penalties called against…Pack with the 3.

21-to-15 first downs, Packers.

Everything favored the Packers, but it was still a game, kinda, Rams chasing late into the 4th-quarter.

In the end, the Rams lose…and that makes my heart happy because I’m nauseous of the public make out session Menage a trois 2021 between McVay, Stafford, and the ‘likes to watch’ football media. Then adding OBJ into this is such a ridiculous, clueless move – I hope the Rams choke on all of it, if not for anything more than the way McVay privately and publicly treated Jared Goff.

In their last three games, the Lions have more wins than the Rams…a half a win/tie.

The Rams have lost three-in-a-row to fall to (7-4). I pray to the football gods to somehow not let the Rams into the playoffs. I just want blabbermouth McVay to feel the pain of being treated like his ___ don’t stink. He can take his fake Chunky Soup eating ass back down to Cabo this winter and mud wrestle Kyle Shanahan to be the one to acquire the services of Aaron Rodgers. We project the Rams with 9-10 wins and a likely wild card, sadly.

Green Bay jumps to (9-3), and they have the inside track at an NFC #1 seed (already beating Arizona). They are set up to run the table from here with a favorable schedule but will probably stumble on one of them. 13 wins minimum (unless Rodgers goes down).

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Well, the Matt Stafford (21-38 for 302 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) for MVP bandwagon broke off a tire, veered off into a convenient store gas pump, and ignited upon impact…over the past three games. 5 TDs/5 INTs, three pick-sixes, three losses.

I shouldn’t paint a picture of such despair…because the Rams will go out and beat the Jags this week, and the media’s favorite son QB (besides Lamar) will be declared ‘all fixed’ and thus Stafford is still a top MVP candidate.

Stafford’s new downfall is OBJ (5-81-1/10)…you knew he was gonna force it to him, and you knew OBJ would drop passes, not finish routes, never catch the ball in traffic, and generally not be on the same page as Stafford because they’re just now playing together – but Stafford and McVay…McStafford…are so smart that they took the sucker’s bet and dove right in heavy with OBJ and problems will ensue.

The Browns were never better then when OBJ was out, and never worse when OBJ was in…but the Rams are smarter than everyone and Sean McVay is trying to con me that bad canned soup is a healthy meal. So, he will show you who is smart at football.

I don’t know how long it will take before the Rams back down on the OBJ hype/targeting, but it’s not yet.

And for some reason, defenses are double teaming him which is an even bigger travesty…but even worse is Stafford trying to force into a double team. OBJ can’t handle no-team, no-player coverage. He’s not going to be a star with double teams.

OBJ got loose for a bomb TD when this game was about out of hand, and that kinda pulled the Rams back into the game for a moment. Nothing special on the play, but Stafford put on him for the score. This will keep them joined together for at least 2-3 more weeks.

 -- Two things about Darrell Henderson (16-55-0, 4-18-1/4)…

1) He looks like he’s stuck in mud as a runner now. He’s not a 4.3s runner, as his Pro Day made us all think. He may be hurt/have a secret injury holding him back but he looks like he’d rather be doing 100 other things than carrying a football…watching this tape. Very uninspired, sluggish running.

I think Henderson is starting to bring a Sony Michel (3-14-0, 1-11-0/1) split or takeover into view, if he doesn’t step it up. Not that Michel looks any more electric…but McVay has to be panicking off this three-game slide…willing to mix things up if a hot hand appears.

2) DH is banged up from the game…thigh injury. The door may really open for a Michel takeover if he gets a full starting shot Week 13 and does well. Going to be hard to dismiss him for the bad tape Henderson is putting up.

 -- Aaron Jones (10-23-0, 0-0-0/1) looked fine/healed here. A semi-surprising active but he didn’t do much. The Rams seemed committed to stopping the run, which they did…great…Aaron Rodgers only put 36 points on you in a loss anyway, but you didn’t stop being bad against the run for a game, so mission accomplished…I guess. Nice!!

 -- I usually shrug off Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4-50-0/9) TD/blip weeks, because they usually happen as a blip and then there is no follow up.

Week 11, 100+ yards and a TD and everyone piling back in.

Week 12/this game, MVS didn’t light up the FF stat sheet here for a follow-up, which is typical…BUT…this time might be different. He almost had a TD (Rodgers overthrow)…which would have been a nice follow up from last week because the last two games: 9 targets this game, 10 targets the game prior.

MVS nearly had a TD in this game and one other long play shot…Rodgers’ fault, not MVS. And if they had connected on one of the near-misses, there is NO WAY anyone would have dropped him for FF, and he’d be in starting lineups next week/Week 14. One slight overthrow has changed the MVS narrative.

What I’ve seen of the MVS targeting -- is an improved more purposed targeting with an opponent’s emphasis on Davante Adams to give MVS lesser coverage. I am getting all-in fever on MVS, for the price, to try and ride this wave that could crash but this wave is nice right now…especially where I’ve lost Deebo for a while.

If you can snatch MVS for a song during this bye week and a meh Week 12…I’d do it. A smart add for your title runs or trying to hustle into the playoffs.

Heck, he’s on waivers in some redrafts – the bye week and injuries forcing him to get coughed up for a roster space, and he is not in view of the ‘by scoring’ Week 13 rank because he’s on a bye…so, do a search for him if you want. He’s a WR2 potential lethal add for the stretch run…a homerun hitter.

I like the MVS target and general on-tape look better than this Randall Cobb (4-93-1/5) moment.

 -- Jalen Ramsey (6 tackles) was barely covering Davante Adams in this game, which is insane. The Packers would get near the goal line and Adams would be lined up on one side/outside and Ramsey would be at linebacker on the other side. Next end zone play, Adams would switch to the otherwise…Ramsey would switch to the opposite side.

I cannot believe football analysts are still talking about Ramsey shutting down ___WR in a matchup. It is not true in 2021.

Here’s all you need to know about Jalen Ramsey 2021, I’ll represent it in a two-man play that I’ve penned…

McVay: Big game this week, Jalen. We’re facing the great Davante Adams. You know how much Rodgers loves to throw it to him. I’m gonna need you to shut him down this week!

Ramsey: I’m an outside linebacker.

McVay: I know you’ve worked there a lot this season…but this game we really need you to take away Davante for our best shot to win this huge game.

Ramsey: I’m an outside linebacker.

McVay: I know we’ve let you play there, and you’ve been good…but you’re the best cover corner in the game and we’re facing the top WR in football. We traded a ton for you and pay you a lot of money to be that stud…we kinda need you on Davante.

Ramsey: I’m an outside linebacker.

McVay: Could I tempt you with some Chunky soup?

Ramsey: I’m an outside linebacker.

McVay: OK, no problem…I’m going to go back to the office and make out with Matt Stafford some more. Check ya later. Hopefully, we don’t lose to the Packers as Adams catches 8 passes for 104 yards on 9 targets against us.

Ramsey: I’m an outside linebacker.

-end scene-

 -- Rasul Douglas (6 tackles, 1 INT TD) is more of a shutdown corner in 2021 than Jalen Ramsey is. Douglas has been fantastic this year. A Pro Bowl level year.

Just so you know how great NFL head coaches and D-Cs are at evaluating talent they possess, here’s Douglas’s NFL journey so far:

OCT 7 2021 = Signed to the active roster by Green Bay

SEP 2 2021 = Signed to the practice squad by Arizona

AUG 30 2021 = Released by Houston

AUG 24 2021 = Signed a contract with Houston

AUG 23 2021 = Released by Las Vegas

APR 19 2021 = Signed a 1 year $990,000 contract with Las Vegas

SEP 6 2020 = Claimed off waivers by Carolina

SEP 5 2020 = Waived by Philadelphia

MAY 11 2017 = Signed a 4 year $3.17 million contract with Philadelphia (PHI)

Snap Counts of Interest:

42 = Dillon

40 = A Jones

35 = Deguara

33 = M Lewis

20 = Dafney

50 = DHenderson

12 = Michel

62 = Kupp

61 = Van J

61 = OBJ

R.C. Fischer

FFM

03 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Dolphins 33, Panthers 10

Wow, talk about a team playing with little-to-no energy… What is Matt Rhule doing? I thought he was a rally-the-troops kinda head man? It may be that his schtick works better with young people in college. I’m not just taking potshots while he’s down. I bet he’s thinking that too…a lot of college-to-pro head coaches fight that. They get bored in college, to a degree…at the same time the media is hyping them up and billionaires are flying them in on private jets to wine and dine them and offer him millions – it’s all pretty alluring. It’s wonderful being ‘pursued’.

If you’re smart, as a an in-demand college head coach, you leave college for a spell…when you want to change out of your current gig/school, and you take a five-year monster deal to go to the pros…realizing you’ll likely be fired by year 3-4, but you’ll be paid handsomely to go away, and then you can go instantly from failed pro coach to become the hottest free agent coach going back to the college ranks…your ego getting massaged all over again as you abandon the criticism of the pros to go back the warm embrace of the college paying you to come over. I don’t fault the coaches for it. I’d like to ride that train.

One of the stops that his train makes is – being hated by the media at some point in your pro career, and so will the fans hate you for not going undefeated every week, month, season…and these coaches who are always the belle of the ball have not faced that, ever, in their meteoric careers. Rhule has walked on water coaching in college.

I imagine Rhule is thinking he’ll give it one more shot in 2022, not wanting to be a quitter, per se…take 2023 off, potentially, take a breather, then sign a mega-deal in 2024. Which means there will be no long-term vision for the Panthers…it will be all about 2022 for Rhule. All-in, one hail mary flailing away shot.

Rhule has done this to himself – terrible QB choices/plans/concepts since he walked into the building. One of the worst O-Lines in the league (we have internally graded it as one of the three worst pass blocking units in 2021). A big contract to a small running back. A big contract extension to mediocre Robby Anderson.

Rhule has done about everything wrong a head coach could do/advise to do/signed off to do, personnel-wise, in his first two seasons. Even his smart deals for CBs C.J. Henderson and Stephon Gillmore – they’ve had little impact, and the hidden kicker about those CB deals is -- he cut corner Rasul Douglas prior to all this to make room for his CB collection. Douglas is currently playing all-pro ball for Green Bay right now.

Rhule is on the ropes, and his team played in this game like they’ve all moved on. Rhule seems to have no impact with his players. At least not an impact befitting him as one of the highest paid coaches in the league. Egotistical (with good reason) NFL head coaches who are used to nothing but fawn fests from the media and the fans (from their college coaching days)…they won’t suffer this well. Rhule has shown no NFL talent assessment ability to solve his problem…his roster is only getting worse. The outlook here is grave…but Rhule will get paid a lot to leave, eventually, and then get a monster contract from about any big college that has an opening. He’ll be fine. Panthers fans will be picking up the pieces for years trying to fix this mess. Rhule probably would figure things out and be better if he hangs around for 7-10 years but likely he bolts in 2022-2023 and just leaves the kitchen a mess for the next occupants to clean up.

This game…

The Panthers gave up 11 QB hits, 5 sacks, 7 TFLs…completed 10-of-31 passes and had so many drops I stopped counting. This was one of the worst performances by a fairly talented NFL team of 2021. It’s only getting worse, not better, with Rhule. Miami wasn’t great as much as Carolina tanked.

Carolina is (5-7) and likely on their way to 6 wins, 7 wins tops. Week 14 v. ATL is a battle of two of the worst teams in the NFL. Why is it when Tom Brady plays in a division, the other three teams in that division become the 3 worst teams in football?

Miami didn’t do anything special besides play sound football but more just let Carolina implode. Miami has had the good fortune of playing HOU, NYJ, CAR in their 4-game win streak. They have NYG and NYJ next. They’re trying to kill my win total ‘under’ bet. They are (5-7) and I think they hit 7 wins tops and stay ‘under’…I pray. Miami is getting by on an easy schedule more than anything.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- It’s 2021…

Last week, I won games with D’Onta Foreman and Cordarrelle Patterson leading the way.

I had to seriously consider Laquon Treadwell off waivers to use this week in deep roster leagues.

The consensus top 5 redraft picks for 2021 are all gone and/or hurt and/or useless and/or major disappointments as we sit in Week 13.

It’s been a bizarre season…which is why Fantasy Football is so engaging, so fluid.

So, when I slip in this following comment it should come as no surprise in the UpsideDownWorld of Fantasy 2021: I’m really enjoying Tua Tagovailoa’s (27-31 for 230 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) work right now.

…I’m enjoying watching it. I don’t want it for my FF teams. I don’t want it long term in Dynasty. But I am fascinated by what’s happening with Tua. He’s running an offense I’ve never really seen before. It’s like a combination of the West Coast Offense on an overdose of amphetamines mixed with Tua as Penny Hardaway distributing passes, dropping dimes to all the right players quickly, efficiently. https://youtu.be/GFACsK9lQ68

Tua is virtually unstoppable in games of late. He throws passes in a blink…all within 0-5 yards of the line of scrimmage usually. And when the defense tries to guess who he’s throwing to, he quick changes to another option. I have never seen an offense like this and I’m not sure it is by design, more it’s what Tua can do, he’s limited otherwise…he’s taken his limitations and runaway from them, instead playing to what he is good at, and it’s working.

The last two games, Tua has completed 54-of-64 passes (84.4%)...above 80%+ both games. He’s at 70.5% Comp. Pct. overall for the season.

Honestly, it’s a joy to watch…it’s refreshing. It’s different. I’m not sure it will last because good+ defenses are not fooled, but bad defenses appear to have no answer right now.

Tua splits 2021:

46-of-83 (55.4%), 1 TD/2 INTs = Tua v. BUF 2x, NE, BAL

119-of-151 (78.8%), 9 TDs/4 INTs = Tua v. JAX, ATL, NYJ, CAR

The Giants defense will be a big test for him Week 13, because Tua is getting slicker and slicker in this offense, but the Giants mimic more of the Bills defense and then some. If Tua blows through NYG, then I’m going to believe this Miami team could be headed to the playoffs.

Only one QB has a lower depth of target/intended air yards per pass attempt than Tua, and that’s Jared Goff. For everyone who thinks they’re super smart quoting air yard targets for QBs and WRs as mic drop debate enders or thinking you;ve found FF scouting gold, (a) you’re wasting your time thinking it is some kind of talent metrics, it isn’t, and (b) Tua is breaking the mold of what we think QB play, and downfield throwing must be. He’s literally slicing NFL defenses right now with the ‘death by a thousand paper cuts’ offense, or my trademarked ‘BTO’ (Baby Throw Offense). They know it’s coming, and they can’t seem to stop it…it’s simplicity is it’s complication and Tua is running it like a robot magician.

Most NFL teams would keep forcing Tua to play ‘real QB’ and take deep drops and throw the passes the playbook says. Credit Miami, they’ve ditched that…or Tua just does what he wants…and they’re playing ‘their own way’.

The NFL might figure this out quickly and then Tua is doomed because he can’t play any other style, but baby it is working now. You can’t target him with your DST for FF because he’s getting rid of the ball so fast, so efficient and quick you can’t sack him or get picks off him like you used to.

 -- On the other side of the field, was the opposite of Tua…heavily sacked, typical drop back passing with bad drop back passers. The Panthers QBs combined for 32.2% completed passes in this game. Cam Newton (5-21 for 92 yards, 0 TDs/2 INT) was benched and P.J. Walker (5-10 for 87 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) came in for garbage time.

Is there a QB controversy? I dunno. Your choices between these two QBs is death by being thrown into a pit of Cobras or death by being thrown into a Lion’s Den. These two QBs are awful, but we also have to acknowledge how bad the Carolina O-Line is and how awful their WRs are. Cam was under constant assault just trying to get passes off.

Matt Rhule will jet off to a big college gig in a year and take all his guaranteed money with him…while he ruined O-C Joe Brady’s career. The answer to whether it was Ed Orgeron or Joe Brady who made LSU in their title season…the answer is Joe Burrow.

You no longer blindly target Tua/Miami with your DST…but you DEFINITELY target Carolina’s offense.

 -- Making Carolina’s offensive outlook worse is the loss of Christian McCaffrey (10-35-0, 0-0-0/1). Again, Matt Rhule decides to build everything around one smaller RB and does nothing to ensure he has a great Plan B running back that’s similar behind him. That’s a Matt Rhule problem/mistake. No different than Mike Vrabel having Jeremy McNichols as his #2 RB behind Derrick Henry. How could people be so stupid with so much on the line? But NFL teams/head coaches are constantly terrible at planning and pre-planning and scouting.

Chuba Hubbard (2-6-0, 0-0-0/1) will get the push with CMC out because Matt Rhule’s wife was the lead scout on that one. However, he’s been so ‘meh’ that Ameer Abdullah (2-4-0, 2-20-0/6) is getting in more and more, and he might be the real answer for FF…with both being not much of an answer.

Carolina Week 14 could roll out a starting offense led by P.J. Walker and Chuba Hubbard. Good luck with that.

 -- Chuba Hubbard is so nothing that he makes me excited about Myles Gaskin (16-49-2, 2-3-0/2) by comparison, and I can’t stand Gaskin (as a purposeful starter while so many more talented guys are backups on other teams…can you process A.J. Dillon is a backup and Myles Gaskin is a feature? I can’t).

Phillip Lindsay (12-42-0, 0-0-0/0) is instantly better than Gaskin, one week into his arrival…but there is NO way Brian Flores (or any NFL head coach, except Bill Belichick) will change his RB rotation settled on in August/June (unless injury forces it).

Lindsay got good touches here, but most of it later with the game well in hand.

 -- You noticed what Durham Smythe (5-32-0/5, 2-3-0) has been doing lately?

Back-to-back games with 5 targets, 4 and 5 catches in the two games…oh, and he had two running plays this game? I wish the Giants were as creative with Evan Engram as the Dolphins are with non-athlete Durham Smythe, who sounds like the millionaire villain in a Lifetime movie made for TV.

Check this out, this might blow your mind (in a minor way)…

You know how I was saying Tua was great against bad defenses? It was four games with JAX, ATL (then Tua got hurt/finger) Weeks 6-7, and then the past two weeks. In those 4 isolated games…

4.3 rec. (5.0 targets), 41.3 yards, 0.0 TDs = Smythe

The past two games:

4.0 rec. (4.5 targets), 33.5 yards, 0.0 TDs = Gesicki

4.5 rec. (5.0 targets), 34.5 yards, 0.0 TDs = Smythe

Things are shifting, without warning, from Gesicki to Smythe. Why? I have no idea, but don’t question Tua’s distribution right now.

 - Jaylen Waddle (9-137-1/10) is PERFECT for the BTO offense. He’s so quick, he gets the ball in his hands and just goes. The offense you’d like to see for Tyreek Hill…Miami is running it with Jaylen Waddle (and Durham Smythe).

Since Week 6, Waddle is the #6 PPR PPG WR in FF.

As long as Tua isn’t getting figured out, this will continue to PPR-prosper.

 -- Speaking of Miami rookies starting to contribute…EDGE Jaelen Phillips (4 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 PD, 4 QB hits) had a whale of a game. Not sure how much was him and how much was the Panthers lack of blocking or caring. But Phillips is up to 6.5 sacks for the season…not bad for a rookie. Better than Chase Young is producing in the NFL on a per game basis in the NFL.

Phillips and Andrew Van Ginkel (2 tackles, 4 QB hits) had several ‘meet you at the QB’ events this game. 8 QB hits between them. Van Ginkel has 17 QB hits this season. Chase Young has 16 QB hits in his two NFL seasons.

Miami-DST vs. NYG Week 13…yep.

Miami-DST vs. NYJ Week 15…yep.

Miami-DST vs. NO Week 16…maybe.

Miami-DST vs. TEN Week 17…probably.

Panthers-DST the rest of the season? Week 14 v. ATL and that’s it.

Snap Counts of Interest:

66 = Smythe

59 = Gesicki

24 = H Long

55 = Waddle

35 = A Wilson

19 = M Hollins

27 = Abdullah

20 = McCaffrey

11 = Hubbard

Ross Jacobs

FFM

03 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Ravens 16, Browns 10 

This was a sloppy, ugly affair between two decent but flawed teams. The Ravens won despite Lamar Jackson's 4 INT's and they are somehow now the #1 seed in the AFC.

I'll skip over all the gory details because it's just not worth it. It seemed like every other drive ended in a turnover, and every time you thought one team might get a little momentum off of a fumble or interception on defense, the offense would turn around and give it right back.

If the Browns could muster any kind of passing game they would have won going away here, but Baltimore stacked the line to stop Chubb and Hunt, daring Cleveland to pass the ball which they couldn't.

Of course, all the media can talk about all week is how it's Baker's fault and he needs to leave Cleveland. Anyone that believes that is either a sucker, blind, or an idiot. Baker is playing through countless injuries, is under pressure nearly every drop back, his receivers can't get any separation and when they do they drop the ball, and yet he's still trying to will his team to wins. If they didn't have Baker this team would have 2-3 wins max. Baker is the only thing holding them together right now.

I hope Cleveland runs him off. I really do. They don't deserve him. This team has been utter garbage for the past 20 years ever since they let some guy named Belichick walk, and they are headed right back to the trash heap if they let Mayfield go. Cleveland, you deserve all the pain you're about to endure. I hope you enjoy picking in the top 5 of every draft again.

A win here would have given the Browns new life in the race for the division, but this loss likely prevents them from pulling off the title. They'll struggle on for a few weeks and might possibly sneak into the playoffs, but this team just doesn't have enough juice to take it the distance unless something drastic changes. Their remaining schedule is tough, and they are likely to finish with either 8 or 9 wins max.

Baltimore is somehow 8-3 now, but they have to be the worst 8-3 team I've ever seen. This won't last. It's an ok team, but they do not have the firepower on either side of the ball to win 3 straight games in the playoffs against better teams. This makes two straight games where they've just barely squeaked by two average to poor teams in the Bears and the Browns by a combined 9 points and only scoring 16 each game themselves.

The Ravens still have to go through the Steelers twice, the Browns again, the Packers, Rams, and Bengals. Even though the Steelers are dying and the Browns aren't great, those games should still be competitive, and the Ravens luck is liable to run out at any time. I think they go 2-4 or 3-3 at best over the final six games and finish at either 10 or 11 wins with maybe the 3rd seed in the AFC. I don't believe they are even the 4th or 5th best actual team in the AFC though, and I won't be surprised if the Bengals can catch them. Their matchup the day after Christmas likely decides the division winner.

Fantasy Notes

--When is the media going to talk about Lamar Jackson's (20-32 for 165 yards, 1 TD/4 INT, 17-68-0) limitations and the fact that he is an overrated QB? Never. Because they have already sold themselves to his cause, his story, the same way they always choose favorites. They know he's the greatest thing ever, and no amount of evidence will convince them otherwise.

I'm not even kidding, this week I have seen multiple people make the argument that because the Ravens won despite the 4 INT's, that proves that Lamar is great. I'm sorry, what?? What kind of logic is that? It's the logic of people desperate to protect their own failing narratives.

Lamar is a good football player, no doubt, he wins a lot of games, but he's also a limited passer that's going to struggle when the flow of the game doesn't go his way. He needs a lot of help to be great and luckily he has one of the better organizations behind him to provide that support, but with things slowly starting to fall apart in Baltimore, the cracks are starting to show.

In 2021, Lamar has only thrown for more than 1 TD pass in a game twice, both times in ridiculous comeback situations against teams playing prevent defenses. For the season he now has 15 TD's and 12 INT's. Those are the numbers of a pretty good rookie, not a supposed league MVP.

Jalen Hurts: 60.1% comp, 2435 yards, 13 TD, 8 INT, 122 carries, 695 yards, 8 TD

Lamar Jackson: 64.2% comp, 2612 yards, 15 TD, 12 INT, 123 carries, 707 yards, 2 TD

According to the media one of these is an MVP candidate and the other needs to be replaced ASAP because he's a backup talent at best. Rational thought is not the strong suit of most people.

--Jarvis Landry (6-111-0/10) went over 100 yards here and is still being seen as the best option on this crap WR corp, but he also stupidly fumbled a ball away trying to run/pass on a trick play. If he had thrown the ball back to Mayfield that wouldn't have happened, but Landry still thinks he's some amazing superstar receiver that can do whatever he wants like his buddy OBJ. Neither player has been good for years, but don't try to tell them that. Hopefully Cleveland sees the light and rids themselves of this problem in the off-season.

--The guy Baker was working the most after Landry was definitely Donovan Peoples-Jones (2-10-0/5), but the connection just isn't there. Peoples-Jones is a good technician but can struggle to separate from more athletic corners. He's a nice #2 and should be a part of this passing game moving forward, but his ceiling seems capped for fantasy.

--Ja'Marcus Bradley (2-18-0/2) saw his snaps scaled back after last week, but he's definitely worked his way into the rotation as the #3 guy now. He's a decent player, but I still don't see signs of special and you don't want the #3 guy for Clevealand anyways. You barely want the #1 guy.

--Don't worry about Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Baltimore sold out to shut them down. Most teams can't do that. They'll get their numbers.

--If David Njoku (3-35-1/5) could catch, this might have been a monster day for him. In fact, I'm not sure how the official stat line is 3 of 5 for him as I saw him drop 3 passes for sure. Just another perfect scouting job by RC years ahead of time. Njoku has the athleticism but butterfingers to go along with it.

--Thanks for your services D'Ernest Johnson, get back on the bench! The fact that DJ can't get even a single carry or screen pass shows how far this coaching staff has their collective heads up stuck where the sun don't shine. Hopefully Johnson gets a chance to move on to a team that actually appreciates him in free agency.

IDP Notes

--The most interesting thing I saw in this game (you're not going to like it RC), Jeremiah Owusu-Kormoah (13 tackles, 0.5) sacks was flying all over the field making tackles. He looked fantastic, like a mix of Devin Bush and Roquan Smith.

He's been putting up around 4 tackles a game on 30-50% of the defensive snaps all year, but has gotten 80%+ three times now and has 25 tackles in those games. The numbers were a bit inflated here due to the Baltimore run game, but if he's going to be a full-time starter now, he might be up in that 8-9 tackle a game range. If you need a good LB off waivers I would jump on this. I don't believe it's a fluke.

*RC NOTE: I’m seeing good JOK numbers, but I’m not sure he’s playing great defense. He might just be in a good spot, a Joker position, to get to numbers but isn't having a big impact on the total defensive effort...he could be leaving gaps all over in his constant pursuit of tackles/the backfield/the ball. Makes a solid tackle play one snap, then is caught overplaying a fake and leaves a big chunk of the field exposed. That’s my fear with him, but it’s just speculation. I need to watch more tape of him in action. Good for IDP, possible issue for an NFL defense. We’ll see. Maybe he’s a disruptor. I won’t rule it out. From my college scouting memory, I thought he was a mediocre pursuer not a real defender in all phases. 

Like how Joey Bosa is considered a franchise player but I think he hurts a defense overall...but he does get a cool sack every other game. The other 68 plays in a game, ehhhh...not so cool. He’s a good pass rusher though...you just have to hope every play is somehow 3rd & long so his game fits the situation right. *See, also: the cool-looking defensive albatross Jamal Adams. 

https://youtu.be/8IIrf_JSuQk

Snap Counts of Interest

56 = Jarvis Landry

45 = Donovan Peoples-Jones

21 = Ja'Marcus Bradley

30 = Nick Chubb

23 = Kareem Hunt

6 = D'Ernest Johnson

61 = Marquise Brown

36 = Rashod Bateman

35 = Devin Duvernay

35 = Sammy Watkins

40 = Devonta Freeman

36 = Latavius Murray

2 = Ty'Son Williams

R.C. Fischer

FFM

03 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Bengals 41, Steelers 10

No big game detail examination needed here. The Bengals kicked the Steelers arse from the opening bell. This was never a game. It was a sad affair, actually. It was already true, but this game kinda marks the official timeline where the Bengals shift into becoming more of an AFC North power…and even more marks the end of the Steelers run as a ‘good’ team…as a ‘respected franchise’.

The Steelers are one step ahead (for the good) of the Atlanta Falcons…i.e. teams that are secretly one of the worst in the league, and they have a respected, veteran QB past their prime (a la the final years of Eli Manning) that they have a hard time admitting are ‘done’.

Once the Steelers, for example, ditch Ben (or more likely he ditches them/retires) then it really means ‘it’s over’…the decade long run as a top/respected team is over. I mean, it’s already over/been over…but when Ben is officially ‘done’ it’s like the dot on the ‘i’. The Steelers are trying to fight that reality…they hope against hope…they give the long-time stellar employee that one last chance to save them – but they can’t. Eli ended like that. Ben is now. Matt Ryan is as well.

It happens to all the great ones, eventually. The Steelers, as we projected in the preseason, are dead/going to finish in last place…are the weakest team in the AFC North, and as a bonus – they have no franchise QB in sight and their O-Line is devastated. Some lean years coming to Pittsburgh. And no free agent with options is going there willingly. The first person who types an article on ‘the Steelers should go get Deshaun or Rodgers or Russ’ should be shot. The last people to realize that no one cares about the Steelers rich history…are delusional fans cheerleaded on by the delusional local media.

Steelers fans…go look at the New York Giants for the past 3-5+ years. They’re a joke, a shell of what they used to be -- but they think they’re still an NFL elite franchise ‘name’, a desired destination by one and all.

The Steelers are (5-5-1) on their way to 6-7 wins at best, and last place in the AFC North.

What’s happening to the Steelers is happening in reverse to the Cincinnati Bengals. We’re all so used to the Bengals being a joke, that we can’t wrap our minds around them as the power in the AFC North for the future. As delusional as the Steelers fans are, the Bengals fans are the reverse…they can’t hardly enjoy this season, their rise because they’re waiting for the other shoe to fall and wipe them out and force them into last place.

If you had to bet on one team from the AFC North to win the most division titles the next five years – you would make that bet with the Burrow’s…I mean, Bengals.

Cincinnati has beaten the Steelers twice this season, by a combined 65-20 score. Cincy beat the Ravens, at Baltimore, by 24 a few weeks ago…and only by 24 because they pulled their starters late in the game. The Bengals are a ‘drafted Penei Sewell instead of Ja’Marr Chase’ away from sheer AFC North dominance. They may achieve it anyway…partly because all the other teams are collapsing…and the Ravens are the luckiest team in the NFL right now. The Ravens are (8-3) and they are very lucky they are not (3-8) right now. Some of their wins have been miracles…some against the worst teams in the league.

The Bengals are (7-4) and are my 51/49 pick to win the division from here (over BAL). I think the Bengals are way better than the Ravens, but the current schedule and standings gives Baltimore a great shot to take the division. If the Bengals go and smoke LAC this week, then you really have to take this team seriously as a team ‘you don’t wanna play’. Tough schedule ahead but they should get to 10 wins and that giving them a shot to win the AFC North, assuming they beat Baltimore Week 16 for a clean sweep of the Ravens in 2021. The Bengals are not perfect by any means…just better than everyone else in the division.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Big Ben (24-41 for 263 yards, 1 TD/2 INT) threw a pick-six early and it just stayed bad from there. Eventually, the game got so out of hand that as backups rolled in and the Bengals main guys were yukking it up on the sidelines Ben finally put some numbers up late and his lone passing TDs.

It’s all Ben has to offer anymore…prayer throws, and junk time hopes.

 -- Ben’s issues continue to have this FF-affect…

1) Diontae Johnson (9-95-0/14) is Ben’s most trusted look…and even if he starts slow, when the junk time comes around…Diontae is his main man in general.

And Diontae is in real trouble for the same role/targeting when Ben leaves/is dropped next year. One of the top ‘sells’ for Dynasty offseason 2022.

2) Pat Freiermuth (4-40-1/4) is Ben’s trusted red zone, end zone option…and he faces a weak-against-the-TE Baltimore defense this week, one that has played Diontae well – DJ has never had more than 54 yards in a game v. BAL and has not scored a TD against them in 4 career games.

3) Chase Claypool (3-82-0/8) is your WR3/flex hail mary option…Ben flings him prayers, and all it takes is one for CC to land.

 -- Najee Harris (8-23-0, 3-14-0/5) has looked not-good this season, but it doesn’t matter because he gets the volume to make up for it.

If the Steelers don’t find a QB and don’t fix their O-Line…he’s going to be a fringe RB1 ahead. If they can get an O-Line…Harris can be a high-end RB1 on volume and production. He’s a straight-ahead runner that needs straight ahead holes to run through.

Either way, he’s an RB1 threat…with the worry that he has a Josh Jacobs career arc. He’ll likely be in the list for the #1 overall RB/player taken in 2022 redrafts. Keep and use him if you wish, but if you ever entertain a trade-off…just know he’s the apple of everyone’s eye. You should get a ridiculous amount in exchange for him.

 -- Let’s finish out the Steelers notes with defense talk…

This Steelers-DST looks dead, even with T.J. Watt playing. No Haden, no Watt possible this week…and that’s even worse.

Alex Highsmith (5 tackles, 2 TFLs) is emerging out of this mess. 8 TFLs in his last 6 games.

 -- Joe Burrow (20-24 for 190 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) didn’t have a great FF day but he didn’t need to…the Bengals whacked PIT right away and they just ran Joe Mixon (28-165-2, 4-0-0/4) over their downtrodden souls.

It’s possible Najee is the 3rd-best back to have for Fantasy in 2022…in his own division.  

 -- Tee Higgins (6-114-1/8) had his best game of the season…finally. It’s been a choppy season for Tee, but he missed a few games and went on a TD drought…but he’s a back-end top 25 PPR PPG WR this season to date.

Since Ja’Marr Chase (3-38-0/3) cooled off starting Week 8 (under 50 yards rec. four straight games), the top PPR WR since Week 8 for Cincy is Tee not Ja’Marr.

Since Week 8:

13.6 PPG = Higgins

10.5 PPG = Chase

09.4 PPG = Boyd

 -- I know people still do not take the Bengals seriously, in general, because every time I pitched them as a legit DST to start last week…there was nothing but groans or no visible reaction/excitement. People still (over)respect Ben/the Steelers and totally discount how good the Bengals defense is. I’ve been carrying the torch for Cincy’s defense as ‘good’…top 5-10 good in the NFL…all season.

Last week, for projections, I was more excited about ‘v. Ben/PIT’ than I was ‘Bengals D’. You have to look at the Steelers offense as ‘to target’ for opposing DSTs and we also all need to respect the Cincy defense. All that said, Cincy’s only real worthy DST start the rest of the FF season is Week 15 at DEN, and that’s not amazing but viable/hopeful.

 -- As always, the best way to wrap up a Steelers game analysis: https://youtu.be/rJVAbIz2h_w

And you get a bonus this week, showing how low this franchise is falling and the fans are realizing it ahead of their local fawning media: https://youtu.be/EsF7gZtg94I

Snap Counts of Interest:

61 = Claypool

61 = Diontae

27 = J Washington

25 = Anthony Miller

52 = Boyd

52 = Chase

43 = Higgins

22 = Stanley Morgan

R.C. Fischer

FFM

02 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Bucs 38, Colts 31

I’m not sure what I just watched here.

Tom Brady had one of the worst games I’ve seen him have in a long time, at least in the 1st-half…he was under no real pressure, he had time and was looking over things, patting the ball as receivers ran routes, but then was just throwing passes right to defenders like they weren’t even there all 1st-quarter (and fortunately they dropped some of them). Like, I thought maybe Brady had like some eye issue or something. I’ve not seen anything like it from him this season.

Neither defense could really pressure the QB at first, but the coverage web was great, so the game devolved into a battle of checkdowns and turnovers…7 total turnovers…5 by Indy. If the Colts could hold onto the ball (3 lost fumbles) then they would have probably blown out the Bucs here. My main overview from this game: I could not tell that one team was better than the other.

If I had to pick a side, I’d say Indianapolis was the superior team…but Brady is so smart, and adjusts, and never gets frazzled, and he just kept TB in the game until the Colts shot themselves in the foot enough time for the Bucs to win in the end. It’s a shame, because the Colts were the better team for most of the game and would have cut their AFC South deficit to just one game, and they would’ve made that up and won the division in the end…now, it’s back to ‘time is running out’ for the Colts.

Indianapolis falls to (6-6) with a schedule problem looming. They should beat Houston Week 13 to get to (7-6), and then a Week 14 bye…and then a real Week 15-16 problem, facing arguably two of the 5 best teams in the NFL – NE and at ARI. If they lose those to fall to (7-8), they have to win out (LV, at JAX) just to get to 9 wins. They Colts are very hard pressed to get to 10 wins, much less 9. They have no great tiebreaker win against an obvious wild card team on the books…their playoff path is uphill, which is a shame because they are a good team.

Tampa Bay jumps to (8-3) and I don’t believe they are as good as ARI, GB, or fully healthy DAL in the NFC…but they have Tom Brady, and the other teams don’t, so you can’t bet against them. They need home field over Green Bay to get a repeat trip to the title game. Tampa/Tom will be just fine at ARI or DAL, in a dome…but Brady in Green Bay in January is a problem. TB should finish with 12-13-14 wins and have a good shot at the #1 seed but so much still to play out. 12 wins is an absolute given the TB schedule.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Tom Brady (25-34 for 226 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) 2021 splits…

12 TDs/7 INTs = Brady vs. teams one game under .500 or better (7 games)

16 TDs/1 INT = Brady vs. teams two games or worse under .500 (4 games)

Brady crushes the weak and is more human against the better teams/defenses. That’s why I believe The Bucs -11.0 at ATL is the best bet of the 2021 season. In those five games against the ‘weak’ this season, TB has won by 23, 28, 35, 20 points…including beating ATL by 23. Also, Atlanta may be the single worst team in the NFL.

 -- Carson Wentz (27-44 for 306 yards, 3 TDs/2 INTs, 3-21-0) is a good but limited QB. However, the Colts run game and great O-Line is propelling Wentz to fringe QB1 status.

12 games played this season, 8 of them with 2 or more TD passes. 21 TDs/5 INTs this season for Wentz.

He FF-works in good matchups…and good matchups for him are ones where they are likely to be down and throwing more. He’s the Ryan Tannehill 2020 for FF 2021. Efficient, hiding behind the run game fear/plan to stop by the defense.

Weeks 15-16 v. NE and ARI is not good for him…

 -- Does this Jack Doyle (6-81-1/7) thing have legs?

As I’ve been crowing about all week, since calling this Doyle pop ahead of last week – yes, I think it’s on the table.

It’s on the table for two reasons…

1) You can see the trend moving his direction…

1.6 rec. (2.6 targets), 17.5 yards, 0.00 TDs = Doyle (Wks 1-7)

3.0 rec. (4.3 targets), 33.0 yards, 0.60 TDs per game = Doyle (Wks 8-12)

4.0 rec. (5.7 targets), 47.3 yards, 0.33 TDs per game = Doyle (Wks 10-12)

Wentz is getting comfortable here. Doyle’s snap counts haven’t changed…his targets have, upward.

2) Tell me Doyle isn’t Wentz’s 2nd favorite receiver/target now?

Jonathan Taylor is the focal point of the offense; this we all know. But when they throw the ball, everything is to Michael Pittman…defenses have figured that out and now double and triple Pittman at times. If Wentz has to throw downfield, and Pittman is doubled and Taylor is shadowed…it’s Doyle, Hilton, or Pascal. It used to be Pascal, but now it’s shifting to more Doyle. Pascal has 4 catches for 21 yards…total…the past 3 games.

Mo Alie-Cox was getting a push prior as well. His snap counts haven’t changed either, but his targets have – 3.2 targets per game Weeks 1-8, 1.5 targets per game Weeks 9-12. Alie-Cox has 3 catches for 42 yards…total…his past 5 games.

Doyle is Wentz’s Zach Ertz…developing.

It’s not set in stone. It could shift. Doyle could have a dud v. HOU this week because it’s a blowout and they rotate more guys, but I really believe…like I mentioned last week…something is brewing here. A 3-5 catch, 30-50 yards, shot at a TD every week kinda thing.

 -- I still have full belief in Michael Pittman (4-53-0/10) as one of the best WRs in the NFL in 2021. He’s working like an elite. In Dynasty, I would use this down period of his (no TDs in three straight games…GASP). It’s not BUY at any cost…it’s buy LOWer/as a WR2.

The three WRs that get the most attention from defenses, that I see in 2021, so I’ll take some cues from that as to their quality: Tyreek Hill, Michael Pittman, and Big Mike Williams. One of them is accepted by the universe as a top dog. The other two you can buy as WR2s, but they are showing WR1 abilities…dominant ones.

 -- Leonard Fournette (17-100-3, 7-31-1/8) scored 4 TDs here, and as with most multi-TD games…a lot of circumstances had to fall the right way. Failed other attempts right before the player getting his short TD shot (the James Conner story).

When you’re the main RB for the best offenses in football…good FF things usually fall your way. Not an absolute, but an advantage (the James Conner story).

I didn’t think Fournette would be the clear, main guy here at the start of the season – so, a big miss I tried to warn/get us into around Weeks 3-4-5. If you did, it paid off here. His prior 3 games…no TDs.

He rushed for 100 yards here…the first time he’s done so in 2021.

 -- If you ignore the Week 8 game that Gronk (7-123-0/10) tried to come back from his injury and last 6 plays and then left for more weeks, in his other five games in 2021 season he’s averaging: 5.8 rec. (7.4 targets), 75.6 yards, and 0.80 TDs per game…12.4 non-PPR, 18.2 PPR PPG, which is the CLEAR #1 FF PPG scoring TD in Fantasy.

 -- I expected Mike Evans (3-16-0/6) to have a big game here, like usual…nothing radical about that call. However, he did not have said big game.

You know why? Xavier Rhodes (5 tackles, 1 PD) is starting to ramp up again. He’s getting healthier and back to his good+ ways. If he comes on and stays healthy – it makes this Indy unit a top 10 type NFL defense threat.

 -- Since Week 2, Antoine Winfield (7 tackles, 1 PD) is the #4t IDP PPG scorer among DBs, a blink away from #3.

Snap Counts of Interest:

42 = Doyle

39 = Alie-Cox

09 = Granson

54 = Fournette

12 = RoJo

01 = Gio

R.C. Fischer

FFM

02 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Giants 13, Eagles 7

Weird game…a battle of two bad offenses constantly driving down into scoring territory and then throwing picks and missing kicks.

18 series in the game, 11 of them got into the other team's side of the field…4 scoring drives, 3 INTs ending drives, two drives failed on 4th-down attempts, 1 missed FG and a partridge in a pair tree.

Jalen Hurts looks terrible as a passer in his offense, and the Giants defense came to play. It didn’t help that when Hurts was on the money, Jalen Reagor dropped two game winning TDs at the goal line (tough catches, but makeable catches) on two separate drives late, one the last play/gasp of the game for Philly.

The Giants win not because they’re so superior to the Eagles, but because the Giants are just tougher and have a good+ defense that has the potential to be great someday. They are going to make a MASSIVE mistake getting rid of Dave Gettleman. Keep Gettleman, fire Daniel Jones. Let Gettleman have a shot at fixing the issue while he’s built promise around the bad QB.

The Giants win and hang on to playoff hopes at (4-7). If they can steal a win at Miami Week 13, a huge if, they can get to five wins and then they have a mini gauntlet to make or break their season with at LAC, DAL, at PHI Weeks 14-16. If they win two of those 3 games to get to (7-8), then they can win-out at CHI and WSH Weeks 16-17. No room for error, but my new favorite team/my G-Men aren’t dead yet.

What’s that you say…? Daniel Jones might be out the rest of the season with a neck injury! Awesome!! Who’s their backup? Oh. Well. Let’s go Brandon, I mean Mike Glennon…I guess.

The Eagles fall to (5-7), and after a two-game win streak where the media accepted Hurts as a franchise QB for the moment…they just lost, so this week he’s not and the Eagles need to draft a QB or trade for Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson and anyone else available…because all QBs want to play for the Eagles. Is there any team more involved in every trade rumor that in reality players have zero interest in playing for than the Eagles?

The Eagles have four winnable games ahead, that you know they won’t sweep. At NYJ, bye, WSH, NYG, at WSH. They finish with Dallas, so Philly likely winds up with 7-8 wins and no playoffs. If they do run the table, then Week 17 hosting Dallas might be for a division title? Maybe…doubtful…

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Miles Sanders (9-64-0, 1-0-0/1) came off the field limping in the 2nd-half but did return to the game after that. He’s questionable for Week 13. Most likely he will play/start/be forced all the touches Week 13.

Boston Scott (15-64-1) came in to spell Sanders often, was the better back, as always…and he won’t matter unless Sanders goes down again.

When Miles Sanders has been active/starting, the past two seasons (2020-2021), the Eagles are 5-15-1.

When Sanders is inactive, in that same span, the Eagles are 4-3-0, with one of the losses Week 17 last season that they could’ve won/were winning, but they tanked the 4th-quarter so Washington would win the division, or they’d be 5-2-0 without Sanders.

No matter. You should see the Eagles record when Nick Foles starts.

The Eagles hate players who help them win/are attracted to those that can help them lose…like Sanders.

 -- All week, all pregame, all in-game, all anyone could talk about was how Jason Garrett got fired, in part, because of the misuse/underutilization of Kenny Golladay (3-50-0/7)…and I think that is logical – but I guess they should fire Freddie Kitchens after this, no?

Same old 2021 Golladay…2-4 catches and no real impact. Darius Slay ate him alive on the outside and when they took end zone shots with KG.

I’m not done with KG for FF but am done with this situation for 2021…we’ll see if Mike Glennon can save the day. I’d buy all the rock bottom priced shares of KG in Dynasty.

 -- Speaking of ‘done’, me and Evan Engram (3-37-0/6) are on a full ‘break’ for FF 2021. I love the talent, but this offensive plan and QB are so bad there is no hope and never any results.

The Eagles have been abused by every opposing TE/s for the past two months. If there was ever an upside event for Engram it would be this game, with the illustrious Freddie Kitchens now at O-C. Engram came out on fire, two catches for nice yards early so you’re thinking the team really gets how to fight Philly -- then just one more catch the next 50+ minutes of the game.

In the immortal words of Kevin O’Leary, “I’m out!’ I don’t care what the matchup is, it doesn’t matter for Engram here.

Maybe I should run with Chris Myarick (2-11-1/2) instead? No, please don’t.

Myarick scored a TD in his debut and is now just 1 TD behind Evan Engram on the season…and one TD ahead of Kenny Golladay.

 -- Jalen Hurts (14-31 for 129 yards, 0 TDs/3 INTs, 8-77-0) is going to have these kinda duds, but mostly he’s been a top producer for FF. He’s the #6 QB in PPG in 4pts per pass TD leagues YTD…just a tick ahead of Patrick Mahomes. Week 13 at NYJ should be solid.

 -- Ready to freak out…a little, not a lot?

Daniel Jones (19-30 for 202 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT) has played 38 career NFL games and has thrown for two TDs or more in a game 10 times.

Mike Glennon has played in 35 NFL games in his career and has thrown for 2 or more TDs 15 times. In fact, he’s done it 15 times in his 29 games where he has thrown 20 or more passes in a game…doing so over 50% of the time Glennon has started in his career, he’s thrown for 2 or more TDs.

44 TDs/27 INTs = Glennon (career, 1,005 attempts)

45 TDs/29 INTs = Dan Dimes (career, 1,268 attempts)

I’m not sure it’s a huge drop-off from Dimes to Glennon…it might actually be an improvement?

 -- Dallas Goedert (1-0-0/3) has started/played in 11 games this season. He has two TDs. Four games over 60 yards. Not good. Not elite. Not his fault. This passing game is the worst.

 -- My happiest moment of watching this game: I got to watch NYG rookie CB Aaron Robinson (6 tackles, 2 PDs) play 67% of the snaps (his most work of the year) and shutting down receivers and is the one who battled Reagor for those potential game winners that didn’t connect.

I believe…no, I know Aaron Robinson is the best cover corner from the 2021 NFL Draft…in pure cover skills sense. Eric Stokes was the best CB prospect grade for us on his size, athleticism, and cover ability…on his future projection to be elite. Robinson was out top cover technique right away/ready made. ARob is a little more limited athletically than Stokes but is the best in actual man-to-man combat…and we got to see it here. Both are great prospects.

Robinson + James Bradberry…and Xavier McKinney coming on strong…with Adoree Jackson. This defense has the potential to be bad ass in the future.

Snap Counts of Interest:

46 = Golladay

44 = Slayton

35 = Ph Cooper

11 = J Ross

52 = Barkley

10 = Booker

34 = Scott

22 = Sanders

11 = Gainwell

Ross Jacobs

FFM

01 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Falcons 21, Jaguars 14 

The only reason Atlanta won this game solidly is because they got a turnover early in the game with a short field and that led to a quick score and a 14-3 lead. Other than that, these are two fairly evenly matched teams...they both suck.

I have no idea how the Falcons have won 5 games. Well, I do actually. Because Cordarrelle Patterson should be in the top 3 for MVP. But other than Patterson this team blows. No creativity, no energy, Matt Ryan is almost as painful to watch as Big Ben...they are going to get utterly smashed against the Bucs this week.

The Jaguars aren't a very talented team, but even with all the turmoil they've dealt with this year watching their head coach fondle strange girls in bars, they are still playing with more fire than the Falcons. If it wasn't for that early turnover (and Trevor Lawrence) I think they would have won this game.

With this win the Falcons keep their (misguided) playoff hopes alive. It's a fool's dream. They have 3 nearly guaranteed losses coming against the Bucs, Bills, and 49'ers but 3 potentially winnable games against the Saints, Panthers, and Lions. I think they beat the Lions and one of the other two games to bring them to 7-10 on the season and ultimately miss the playoffs.

The Jaguars fall to 2-9 and are likely to finish with only another win or two against the Jets or Texans. Every other game they are huge underdogs. This team has a little fight in them lately, but they are just bad on defense and bad at QB. I don't see any reason why the ship would get righted anytime soon.

Fantasy Notes

--To any Kyle Pitts (2-26-0/6) owners out there...I feel your pain. I've been starting him every week too. A few weeks ago I thought he might be on the verge of a breakout, but it's becoming more and more apparent that circumstances will not allow it to happen...this year.

I've watched a lot of Pitts because I'm vested in this outcome and I can confidently say the issue is not Pitts. The problem is Matt Ryan is washed and Arthur Smith isn't doing Pitts any favors. Pitts is doubled literally every single play, typically with two defenders running zone coverage, one going high and the other low. Defenses can afford to because who else do they have? Well, they do have MVP candidate Patterson, but defenses don't seem to really care. Patterson is always 1-on-1 when he lines up out wide, but the defense follows Pitts wherever he goes. I haven't seen this kind of respect for a rookie ever. I've barely seen this type of respect for any player this year. Everyone knows he's special except, apparently, Arthur Smith.

What's my beef with Smith? He's doing absolutely nothing to help spring Pitts open. No play action where Pitts runs hidden behind the line into the flat (every team does this and their garbage TE's are always wide open), no double moves, nothing down the field...it's the same old boring short/medium plays that your parent’s favorite TE from the 1990's would run.

Oh and let's not forget that Ryan is one step away from the broadcast booth. He couldn't hit Pitts in stride even if Pitts didn't have anyone covering him. Pitts is so dominant he'll still sometimes pop open, but Ryan will throw it high and away or low and behind him. One of his catches here was actually a magnificent catch on a pass low and behind him and Pitts just snatched it away from the trailing defender.

All of this to say...it's not Pitts, and I do believe better days are ahead. Maybe not 2021 but dynasty players should be buying. Pitts won't ever be this low again.

--Cordarrelle Patterson (16-108-2, 2-27-0/3) for MVP. That is all.

--As Ryan dies before our eyes he's taking everything with him except maybe Russell Gage (6-62-1/7). It's not a great connection, just an easy short throw for Ryan, but it is something, and it's not getting much respect in ppr leagues because it's boring (no 100 yard games). But in his last 5 games (throwing out the Dallas game where all the starters sat early), Gage has averaged 5.4 catches for 54 yards and 0.4 TD's per game (13.2 ppg). That's WR2-2.5 work.

--Speaking of bad QB's, Trevor Lawrence (23-42 for 228 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 5-39-0) isn't getting better. If anything he's getting worse. The Jaguars actually had a chance to tie the game on their final drive, but against a prevent defense Lawrence could barely complete a pass. There are tons of awful QB's that easily score in 2-minute situations every week and yet Lawrence couldn't even connect with wide open receivers. Generational my ass.

--Dan Arnold hurt his knee here and was replaced by James O'Shaughnessy (3-29-0/5). I guess O'Shaughnessy works as a TE streamer, but this passing game sucks and he's way down the target totem pole. If Arnold wasn't getting it done, what makes you think O'Shaughnessy will?

--Early on it was obvious Jacksonville was trying to get Laviska Shenault (5-33-0/9) the ball on his short stuff again, but of course it didn't work because Laviska has no short area quickness. You can't start him right now no matter how much the team says they want to get him the ball.

--After Shenault failed, Lawrence turned to his old favorite Marvin Jones (4-43-0/7) and this worked a little better. Jones is a much better overall receiver than Shenault, but Lawrence was all over the place with his accuracy and Jones was forced to make ridiculous catches just to bring the ball in. Jones can still be used as a WR3 for now.

--However, the most interesting thing from this game started to happen in the 3rd and 4th quarters. I was mostly checked out of the rewatch at that point and just ready to move onto the next game when suddenly I noticed a Jaguar receiver moving around really well, playing with a ton of energy and combativeness, running through tackles, making tough catches...who on earth was this new mystery man? Turns out it was none other than former 1st round bust Laquon Treadwell (4-53-0/8) and boy did he look fantastic.

The biggest knock on Treadwell years ago was his speed, but his effort was also questioned. Not here. He looked fast and sleek, in much better shape than his early career, and he was sprinting back to the ball after each play. You could tell he was getting a chance and knew this was his final shot to prove himself.

I don't want to run off the rails with this because Lawrence is still the QB and there are two guys ostensibly ahead of him, but I never thought the Jags would turn to Jamal Agnew either and yet they did. After Treadwell made his first play or two it was obvious somebody recognized it because he was the main target late in the game. Maybe this just disappears against the Rams, but maybe it doesn't.

The Jags have already shown they'll play anyone that can help the team. I think we're going to see Treadwell with a minor breakout here. How much it's worth for fantasy I couldn't begin to guess however. All I'm saying is that I'm on alert and I'm telling RC to watch too because this might be yet another late-breaking opportunity for WR needy teams. I haven't heard a peep about Treadwell from anyone in the industry, so we're way ahead of a possible breakout here. If you have the room I'd stash Treadwell just in case, but if space is tight you might get away with waiting another week to see how it develops.

IDP Notes

--Shaquille Quarterman (7 tackles) somehow managed to log those 7 tackles on a mere 20 snaps. The guy was a 4th round pick by Jacksonville in 2020 out of Miami where he was a 4-year starter for the Hurricanes and highly productive. He apparently fell in the draft due to athleticism concerns as his numbers were far from eye-catching.

I was watching for him here on RC's request and was getting frustrated because he was so rarely in, and even when he did get in nothing much really stood out about him. The athleticism concerns seem to be real but overblown. He's not a speedster by any means, but he gets to the ball. Reminds me a lot of Azeez Al-Shaiir and Krys Barnes, two other guys that don't blow you away when you see them play but then you look at the box score and they have 10+ tackles.

Quarterman upped his snaps from week 1 to 2, then was out for two weeks, back in at about 20 snaps a game for two weeks and then out again until his return in week 11 with 8 snaps and back up to 20 here, partially due to Damien Wilson going down with an injury. 20 is the highest he's played in any one game all year, but the guy is averaging a tackle every 5.3 snaps for the year. That's an extremely good rate and if he could keep it up while increasing his snaps we could be looking at a shock IDP performer out of nowhere. Let's see if he's starting this week with Wilson out.

--Falcons rookie safety Richie Grant (4 tackles, 2 tfl) is playing more of a LB role than true safety. He's still just rotating in, but when he does he's usually around the line of scrimmage trying to attack. He's pretty good at slipping through to the backfield, but I've yet to see any kind of real coverage ability. Just looks like a small LB right now.

Snap Counts of Interest

71 = Marvin Jones

63 = Laquon Treadwell

53 = Laviska Shenault

13 = Tavon Austin

59 = James O'Shaughnessy

27 = Chris Manhertz