- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Cowboys 41, 49ers 33 (Short Report)
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I normally write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
SHORT REPORT is an attempt at ‘just the facts’ report on this Week 15 game with a Week 16/title week focus for conveying what we need to know.
GAME ANALYSIS:
A sloppy game between two teams clinging to playoff hopes coming in, and Dallas rides a wave of non-Zeke-playing-exuberance/effectiveness on offense and pulls out a 41-33 win. It was really Dallas’s game all along. The Cowboys never trailed, and when the 49ers scrambled back into it late…Dallas returned an onside kick to go up by 14…but then the 49ers hit a Hail Mary on the final play to make it an 8-point margin. Dallas just felt like they had this game all along and they got the win.
Dallas (5-9) can still win the NFC East. If they defeat the Eagles Week 16 and Washington and NYG loses…suddenly the Cowboys could be a Week 17 win over the Giants away from a shocking NFC East win. I don’t think they can win both of the next two games – they’re not better than PHI or NYG right now. I think they’ll fall short.
The 49ers are also (5-9), but they are not in the NFC East…so, their playoffs hopes are long gone. What might have been if not for all the injuries. They’ll be a playoff team in 2021, assuming they’re not crushed with injury again…and how high they go depends upon who their QB is – and I do not believe it will be Jimmy Garoppolo.
WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW FOR WEEK 16?
-- Tony Pollard (12-69-2, 6-63-0/9) made the most of his spot start…turning in the most energized RB performance by a Dallas RB in about two seasons.
A few things to consider about this situation on Pollard…and Zeke…
1) This is a bad Dallas O-Line. There’s trouble with it/running behind it. Sure, Pollard had an awesome FF week…but he didn’t necessarily make you forget Zeke as a runner.
Pollards popped that 40 yarder early, but in his other 11 carries, 29 yards rushing…not good. Not Pollard’s fault, it’s the O-Line (the same issue Miles Sanders and James Conner and David Johnson, among others have had this season).
Pollard would feel like a slam dunk FF start if Zeke is out again Week 16, but it’s not an automatic RB1 event – but the projections will be hopeful it is, but it’s not a given because of the Dallas O-Line.
2) Pollard is a WEAPON in the passing game, and thus they threw him 9 targets and he had a great receiving game. Why aren’t they using Pollard somewhat like this WITH Zeke playing…a pass game weapon? Pollard had 9 targets in this game…he’s had 9 targets total in his last 6 games – and he’s played like 33% of the snaps during it. Why not design more pass game plays for him...like 4-5 of them in the rotation with Elliott playing?
Why…that would require logic…why should we expect the Dallas coaches to know Pollard was a receiving back ace in college and is truly gifted that way? Gotta make Zeke twist his hand and wrist in a circle repetitively even more, I guess.
3) Will Pollard move in on taking over for Zeke in 2021?
Absolutely not. There is no way, unless Ezekiel Elliott dies and they cannot find the body in order to try and still play/feature the corpse of Zeke.
-- Will Jeff Wilson (16-60-1, 0-0-0/4) get all the gold this week with Raheem Mostert out? I wouldn’t bet heavy on that thought.
The 49ers have not leaned on one RB in a game all year except one (when three RBs went down in a week and they had to). They run an RB rotation/duo…no matter who that duo is. So, in Week 16 it will be Jeff Wilson as the lead but still getting his 12-15 carries and 1-2 catches with Jerick McKinnon (2-22-0/2) playing a split role and Tevin Coleman (3-11-0) taking carries as well…maybe even 7-10 carries for Tevin. If he gets hot…maybe more/cutting into Wilson.
-- C.J. Beathard (5-7 for 100 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is mistake-prone but he’s also more physically talented than Nick Mullens, and CJB is a swashbuckler…he will push the passing game and throw downfield. He’s the opposite of Mullens. Beathard will go on the attack…and that might be good or it might be multiple picks thrown.
Beathard can also run the ball well, so he adds that risk/wrinkle for the defense.
Beathard might be a top 10 QB this week…or bottom 5. He’s a boom-bust player.
ANY 2021 FUTURE THOUGHTS (Dynasty Offseason or Stash Items):
-- Who is going to the starting RB for the 49ers in 2021?
1) Kyle Shanahan does not believe in a one back system. It will be a duo+ rotation.
2) Coleman and McKinnon are free agents. Hasty and Wilson are restricted free agents. Contractually, it will be Mostert-Wilson-Hasty. Mostert (approaching 30 years old by season end 2021) and Wilson splitting is the most likely outlook, unless the 49ers sign or draft a big name into the mix. They likely won’t…not in this era of RB economics, but RBs may be so cheap and plentiful that they get an interesting name and jumble up the rotation and let Mostert go.
IDP/DST NOTES:
-- CBs Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown were back healthy for Dallas, and it didn’t lead to any great showing here by the Dallas defense, per se. Dallas is obviously better with Diggs and Brown. They squashed Nick Mullens here and gave up garbage time to Beathard.
The suddenly re-deep Dallas secondary is a bit of a hit to the Jalen hurts upside, in theory.
SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:
52 = Pollard
08 = Dowdle
39 = J Wilson
25 = Mostert
06 = Coleman
2021 Dynasty Offseason Material Coming Soon…
As the 2020 season ends, the 2021 Dynasty offseason becomes a focus along with the incoming rookie class scouting.
We’re coming back with our offseason program in January:
-- Dynasty top 500 offensive player and top 300 IDP player valuations/rankings (updated weekly). First report for 2021 posts after the Super Bowl is booked.
-- Special reports all offseason…on players, strategies, buy low/sell high, inside information I get from sources (which saved us in 2019 with the Tyreek scare).
-- Some new items we will debut this season.
Sign-ups begin in January and the material starts to flow early-January through to August (the entire offseason).
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Bears 33, Vikings 27 (Short Report)
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I normally write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
SHORT REPORT is an attempt at ‘just the facts’ report on this Week 15 game with a Week 16/title week focus for conveying what we need to know.
GAME ANALYSIS:
The Bears got up two scores midway in the 2nd-quarter, 17-7…and then up 20-7 before the Vikings cut it to 20-10 at the half. The Vikings would then score in the 2nd-half, cut it to a one score game and then the Bears would respond to go back up two scores…and back-and-forth it went between a two and one-score game with Minnesota closing it to one score late and had a few drives to take the lead, including the last drive of the game…they could just never get over the hump. The Vikings never led in this game. Chicago was the better, more determined team…looking like they were having fun while Minnesota played uptight and blew their playoff chances (most likely) with a tough loss at home.
Minnesota is now (6-8) and would need a perfect storm to get to the last wild card spot. They project to (7-9) and have a lot of questions to confront for 2021…which means they’ll just stick with their current core group and coaches.
The Bears (7-7) get the clutch win to stay alive and ahead of Minnesota (6-8) but chasing Arizona (8-6) for the final wild card spot. The Bears can get over/into the playoffs with a tiebreaker if they end up with identical records but that likely means the Bears must win out and Arizona must lose at least a game. It’s possible because Chicago has Jacksonville Week 16, and then facing Green Bay…who may have nothing to play for Week 17, potentially. We see the Bears stumbling to the finish and going (8-8) and just missing out on the playoffs.
Not much at all here for FF purposes from this game…
WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW FOR WEEK 16?
-- The TEs of FF-note in this game created more confusion/doubt than offered real solutions ahead…
Everyone liked the recent trend on Cole Kmet (2-12-0/2)…and he caught the first pass of the game, and then had one other target the other 59 minutes of play. How can you trust him Week 16…except he faces Jacksonville?
Irv Smith (3-37-0/4) didn’t do much for FF. He did drop a TD pass right in his hands. How can you trust him? He hasn’t cashed in on his opportunity with Kyle Rudolph out.
The reason why Irv has not cashed in…Tyler Conklin (3-57-1/4) looks better than Smith right now. Conklin had some great catch and run moments in this game. Two weeks in a row, Conklin has looked better than Smith (to me).
-- We’re all starting Allen Robinson (4-83-0/5) if we have him, but just note…ARob going back to face his original team Week 16 (JAX), where he was a bit slighted in the end of his run there. There’s always something to ‘revenge’ games on ex-teams who did you wrong. Just saying.
-- David Montgomery (32-146-2, 1-16-0/2) is on fire and I would not doubt it keeping up again this week.
-- Mitch Trubisky (15-21 for 202 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 8-34-0) had a weak FF game, but played a solid NFL game. You can see Mitch’s confidence growing and he even ran with some purpose in this game. Facing the Jags Week 16 is a great matchup for him.
ANY 2021 FUTURE THOUGHTS (Dynasty Offseason or Stash Items):
-- Darnell Mooney (4-49-1/5, 1-16-0) has all the makings of a future star. I know I keep saying that, but I do so to make a point. I see the ‘it’ here.
Who the coach and QB are in 2021 will determine how excited to get about it this offseason in Dynasty.
They are using Mooney like they should have all along in the past 2-3 weeks – bubble screens, jet sweeps. A TD in each of his last two games. A jet sweep in each of his last two games.
IDP/DST NOTES:
-- Chicago was missing two starting CBs in this game, and still pulled it off against the solid offense of the Vikings. Solid matchup against Jacksonville this week…but we’ll see if they get either or both of those CBs back.
I’m still skittish of going too hard against Gardner Minshew…he is sneaky good on a bad team, and he never quits/can do garbage time. But you have to at least like the Bears-DST this week…especially if they draw Mike Glennon.
-- 5th-round rookie CB Kindle Vildor (5 tackles) had his most playing time of 2020 for Chicago…5 tackles in 44% of the snaps played. Not bad for IDP, but he got beat bad on coverage…allowed 83.3% Comp. Pct. against him here and a TD.
SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:
56 = Irv Smith
45 = Conklin
57 = ARob
53 = Mooney
21 = Wims
16 = A Miller
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College Football Metrics (CFM) 2021 subscriptions will be available for early sign up late December 2020/early January 2021.
It’s going to be a scouting NFL Draft season like no other – some top prospects opting out of their final college season, a unique schedule for CFB teams to have played, a different type of bowl season…a whole new backdrop to scout against. An experienced, talented scouting eye is going to rule. I have 10+ years of successful CFM scouting and analytics to lean on – I’m ready for the challenge.
I know the mainstream football analysis is going to butcher this year’s class even worse than normal – because they are going to blindly favor big school prospects more than ever, because those schools will have the only names they are truly familiar with, and it’s just the ‘name’ they are familiar with not their ‘game’. They’ll hive mind run with whatever names the collective seems to be buzzing about – because they don’t put in the work, they just echo things they’ve heard. I’m not saying that to be a jerk – it’s the open window of opportunity (their failure) that I was able to build my career/business upon.
I spend many hours each offseason day/week/month researching the current class of top 100+ prospects individually as well as all the smaller school and ‘lesser named’ prospects our computer models start to identify. I study and compare prospect’s tape, and I input the performance data (weighted with our secret, proprietary scouting formulas) to get a firsthand feel for it so I can analyze and test/challenge all our analytics. I get to know these prospects on the field, statistically, and do character background research as well -- so I can boil it down to reports so my private clients and subscribers (from serious fantasy players, to professional handicappers, to agents, to NFL war room personnel) can know these prospects by description and statistically – for NFL purposes, for Dynasty Rookie Draft purposes, for Fantasy Best Ball/Redraft purposes in the preseason, and for handicapping and prop betting purposes.
If you love Fantasy Football, if you love the NFL Draft process – I guarantee you’ll never look at the process the same way again with a CFM subscription.
As the regular season football ends, a whole new season of football discovery begins with our ‘CFM’ subscription and study or current and past rookies (offense and defense) – and material flows daily all offseason January to September (NFL season start), leading us to using the material to our advantage for the NFL regular season.
Go to our College Football Metrics or Fantasy Football Metrics subscription pages for more information. The new season sign up information will begin posting in the second half of December 2020.
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- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Cardinals 33, Eagles 26
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
So much to unpack from this game. So much to FFM-celebrate, but let’s look at the game and then get into the players – because this was one of the most entertaining games of 2020.
It didn’t start out very entertaining…for Philly. An early safety on a sack of Jalen Hurts. The ensuing drive for Arizona – a Kyler TD scamper…9-0 Arizona. Then Arizona blocked a punt on Philly’s next possession, deep in Eagles territory…leading to a quick TD and a 16-0 Arizona lead 13 minutes into the game.
Philadelphia won the rest of the game, from that point, 26-17…but that wasn’t good enough to win the game in total.
Jalen Hurts stormed the Eagles back in this one…three TD passes in the 2nd-quarter to draw the halftime lead down to 6 points (26-20 Arizona).
Hurts actually tied this game at the end of the 3rd-quarter…26-26. A defensive struggle broke out in the 2nd-half, after an offensive explosion in the 1st-half (46 points in the 1st-half combined, just 13 points combined 2nd-half.
Arizona scored the final TD of the game…the game winner with 7+ minutes left. The Cardinals defense held off Philly on two drives from there including a couple late shots at the end zone to get the hard-fought win.
Arizona gets a quality win here and goes to (8-6). They hold a one game lead over (7-7) Chicago, but the Bears have the Jags next week and should get to (8-7), assuming there are any sure things in the NFL anymore. Arizona must get to 9 wins to have a strong chance at holding off Chicago…and two more wins/10 wins total is a lock for the playoffs. The Cards face an out-of-the-playoffs 49ers team at home Saturday…but the Niners are pesky. Arizona has a slight edge for the wild card, but Chicago owns the tiebreakers, if it comes down to it, from what I see. It may come down to whether GB at CHI Week 17…and if the Packers care about the game or not. If I were GB, I’d rather see Chicago into the playoffs than Arizona.
The Eagles are now (4-9-1) and would need to win out and Washington to lose out, and the Eagles would win the division…which if Philly wins this week (at Dallas) and Washington loses to Carolina this week…then Philly is one game out – and then hosts Washington Week 17 for all the marbles! The Eagles have a shot at this.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Well, NFL intelligentsia…do you think Jalen Hurts (24-44 for 338 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 11-63-1) can throw the ball effectively in the NFL now? I can’t wait for them all to gloss over it with like ‘hmmm, whaddya know Hurts threw the ball well…I’m shocked! Now, onto how great Tua Tagovailoa is…’
So many Hurts’ thoughts, let me share some with you…
1) Hurts will not be given the full credit by anyone for this effort…not just because they want to hide from their bad scouting call – but because none of THEM realize the Arizona Cardinals have a top 6-10 NFL defensive unit. I don’t care what the stats or metrics or analytics say about the Cards-D – that’s a top unit I see with my eyes over the past several weeks/all season. They’ve just had a tougher schedule, so it gets hidden a bit.
I scouted Arizona’s defense and D-C Vance Joseph poorly for 2020. I thought they’d be a joke…but they’re a very good unit.
2) If you scouted Tua as several grades above Hurts, you’re going to regret/pay for that call. Analysts will forget about it and not examine why they were wrong and go happily along their merry way with the public worshipping them. The Miami Dolphins missed on Hebert and Hurts, and it cannot be forgotten…and someone should be fired for that immediately. They won’t be.
3) Jalen Hurts IS the franchise for Philly now. I said all along, all 2020 preseason and in-season – if Hurts ever got a chance, the city would fall in love with him and it would be hard to turn back. Well…boom.
4) Carson Wentz will have to be traded, and he will be. He’ll have many suitors because the NFL hive minds still sees a franchise QB. I see a solid one, but not a franchise one. He’ll be coveted by teams without top NFL Draft picks to land QBs. He could be a Patriot. Could be a Raider. There will be a few teams in the running.
5) Doug Pederson should be fired after this season, even if Philly wins the East and goes on a Super Bowl run. He is as culpable for football personnel fraud as much as the people who still like Tua more than Hurts. Pederson fought putting in Hurts all year (and now he’ll try to take credit for it…Pederson is a nice guy, but I call bullshit).
6) Hurts is better than Lamar Jackson…and Taysom Hill, and Marcus Mariota…and any of the run-first QBs in the league right now. He has a different, unique style and I cannot believe more is not being made of his weightlifting dedication and physical strength that makes him this unique power RB playing QB. If you subscribed to CFM, you knew it in January 2020…and how it could affect his NFL play (positively).
7) Hurts is a QB1 for 2021, no debate. It’s locked in. It happened that fast.
-- I wrote about Jalen Hurts first, but I should have written about Kyler Murray (27-36 for 406 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT, 8-29-1) first. Why?
I nearly cried when I saw all the Dynasty teams checking in all excited by their Week 15 playoff wins – led by this monster FF effort by Kyler. This was by design. This was a plan hatched in 2019…in the spring, in the summer of that year…ahead of the Dynasty Rookie Draft – me laying out the case to do whatever you had to do to get on Kyler. And many of you did whatever needed be done to accomplish getting your hands on Kyler.
Wish you had Josh Jacobs now (the top ranked/taken prospect in the 2019 DRD)?
Even those who flipped Kyler earlier this season for Josh Allen + stuff…you won too. You got extreme value at just the right time. Your investment in Kyler paid off in multiples.
Kyler is starting to pick the team up and put it on his back a lot of drives/times now…it’s not just the offensive pace or Air Raid (which is awful). It’s not D’Andre Hopkins bailing him out, although that helps. It’s Kyler starting to become a star…but an even bigger star for FF.
The current #1 QB in PPG for fantasy 2020…Kyler Murray.
The current #1 scorer in all fantasy football…Kyler Murray.
Mission accomplished.
Tips are not required but are not unwelcome… :)
-- Who does Kyler throw to when not throwing everything to DeAndre Hopkins?
Not Christian Kirk (3-33-0/4)…this was a perfect spot for Kirk to have a solid+ game, but it’s like he wasn’t there – which is par for the course for the past several weeks. He’s done for FF 2020.
KeeSean Johnson (2-38-0/3) is starting to creep up into a trusted role. He’s going to be a starter in 2021, I believe…but not super exciting for FF. A bunch of 4-5 catches, 40-50 yards and no TDs games.
Dan Arnold (3-54-0/5), to me, is becoming Kyler’s #2 favorite option. 2.33 rec., 47.3 yards, 1.0 TDs per game the past 3 weeks. Kyler is also speaking of Arnold in interviews. He’s a TE1 hopeful week-to-week…another of these guys who was not-a-TE but converted and is growing into a legit top half of the league TE weapon.
-- Who is Jalen Hurts throwing to the most/who is his #1? I’m not ready to make that call/it’s not obvious.
Dallas Goedert (4-39-0/8) seems like he was favored through Hurts’s first two starts, but not by much.
Alshon Jeffrey (2-63-0/3) has come to life with Hurts…not fully but showing a pulse again.
Jalen Reagor (5-49-0/8), I thought might be that guy…but not even close. There’s more Jeffrey + Hurts than Reagor + Hurts ‘sync’ that I see.
I think it’s still too early to call, and still developing on who it might be…but there will be a whole new #1-2 WRs here next year anyway.
-- Just to note…Quez Watkins (3-40-1/4) got my attention here for the first time this season.
Check this out: https://youtu.be/I_5qxE6ugSI?t=15
Most NFL WRs cannot do that…a 180 and then run by everyone. There’s Combine speed, and then there’s NFL speed…that was some NFL speed.
He might be another Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Tre’Quan Smith (fast guys who aren’t great NFL WRs, but they’re fast and OK enough) – but I’ve never seen MVS or TS do something like what Watkins did on his TD in this game.
-- Dead for Fantasy…the RBs from these two teams. Dead because of their QBs taking a lot of the good stuff for FF numbers.
…and they’re both marginal/OK talents for the NFL. Nothing special.
Miles Sanders (17-64-0, 1-26-0/2) had the kind of numbers here that I think you can expect most weeks…1-2 catches 50-75 yards total…RB2-3 work because of Hurts sucking away numbers.
Kenyan Drake (10-26-0, 2-14-0/2) continues to put up weak rushing numbers, but he does get short TDs to prop himself up. I’m still not sure if Drake will be back in Arizona next season (the free agent to be).
-- I’m a fan of this Arizona defense, as I mentioned prior in this article…and the last few weeks. Their strength of schedule is hiding them a bit. Week 16 hosting the 49ers, with SF out of the playoffs…it could be a nice start for his DST.
Really good if Nick Mullens starts.
Just ‘good’ if C.J. Beathard Starts.
Snap Counts of Interest:
36 = Edmonds
34 = Drake
52 = Jeffrey
46 = Reagor
44 = Ward
28 = Q Watkins
26 = Fulgham
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Bengals 27, Steelers 17 (Short Report)
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I normally write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
SHORT REPORT is an attempt at ‘just the facts’ report on this Week 15 game with a Week 16/title week focus for conveying what we need to know.
GAME ANALYSIS:
Do I need to add to the universal analysis of this game? I agree with the national sentiment of this game analysis: Yes, the Steelers were terrible. And, yes, it’s time for panic for Pittsburgh.
The Steelers were never really in this game – that’s the scary part. No fluky plays…just one team better at football than the other, and that better team was led by Ryan Finley at QB throwing for 89 yards in victory.
Two thoughts to add:
1) Had the Browns pulled off that Ravens game on MNF Week 14…they would be a hand’s down favorite to win the AFC North today. As it is…the Browns have a shot at this. Week 17 is CLE at PIT…and the browns are the superior team right now.
2) When will Mike Tomlin ever get blame for this Steelers running collapse of the past 3+ seasons? He is the author of this problem…a problem that has been plaguing the Steelers for years now – disappointing season after disappointing season recently. He created this nothing backfield. He watched Chase Claypool star for this team…and then went away from him by not even having him in the game 50% of the time for several weeks now.
Tomlin national blame outside of Pittsburgh = 0%
This will all be blamed on “Ben is fading.”
The Steelers fall to (11-3-0) and are about to cough up the AFC North…I hope they do to usher Tomlin out of there (never going to happen). They will lose to Indy Week 16 and then the topper, a loss at home to the Browns to lose the division. A boy can dream.
The Bengals rise to (3-10-1), and watching Cincy outright dominate the Steelers and the Jets do the same to the Rams – I will never ever gain mention a team tanking or losing on purpose. To go along with the theory that all NFL head coaches are the worst business managers ever, spare 2-3 of them - then of course they are going to try to win every game they play no matter how it hurts them for draft positioning or not playing younger players to get them ready for the future. They play to win every week with the players they are aligned with.
These are the people (these coaches) who think winning a meaningless Week 17 game leads to momentum into the next season…or that kicking a field goal in the 4th-quarter when they are down 40-0 is a morale victory (hey, at least we didn’t get shutout! Oh, good you only lost by 37…sweet…you can really build on that momentum for next week!). Players don’t care about draft positioning of the team (they’d rather they get worse picks to not threaten their jobs) and head coaches love moral victories – all the people on the field each week (coaches and players), they’re 100% into winning. ‘Tanking’ is something management would like but has no control over the people down on the field who absolutely don’t want that. Good for the Bengals here…they played hard and dominated.
I don’t care about the Steelers fall pr the Bengals surprise win here. I will only remember this game as the time where Diontae Johnson got a ton of FFMers into the FF finals! Yes!!! Congrats one and all!!
WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW FOR WEEK 16?
-- Is Big Ben (20-38 for 170 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) shot? Kinda.
He’s not so bad that he cannot manage a team or have good games here and there…like Rivers-Brees-Brady. They still have some gas in the tank, but they’re definitely racing towards ‘the end’…be it in a year or two…and it will be ugly/depressing at the end because they won’t go out on a high note (they never do)…and they’ll take the surrounding weapons down around them as they go.
Ben has been under 250 yards passing in a game in half his games this season. He’s been under 200 yards passing the last two weeks. He’s been under 60% Comp. Pct. in half of his last 6 games.
22 TDs/4 INTs the first 9 games of the season.
8 TDs/7 INTs the past five games.
Facing the Colts this week…probably not going to project well for FF output.
-- The Steelers’ WR report…
Well, Diontae Johnson (8-59-1/13) not only came up big at just the right time for FFM-nation…but he saved his career here. The guy struggling with basic catches made several tough catches in this game. Any disconnects in this game were all Ben’s doing (wildly inaccurate throws). Diontae had the weight of the world on his shoulders coming into this game…and he answered the bell on national TV. Good for him. Good for us to start him next week in the finals!
The secret WR problem for the Steelers has been JuJu Smith-Schuster (3-15-0/6) all along…which is a Mike Tomlin issue for allowing him to go on with his nonsense. Look, when you’re more famous for dancing on the opposing team’s logo for your TikTok channel then you are for being a great NFL WR – you’re done in this new era. Like 10-15 WRs entered the NFL from college this year that are already better than JuJu…not to mention about 50-75+ other existing/non-rookie WRs who are better than him.
JuJu dropped passes this game, fumbled…and no recourse. It’s not like the Steelers don’t have better receivers to go to if they pulled JuJu.
If you want to know which NFL team is the most poorly run in the league – see which team spends a boat load of free agent money on JuJu this offseason. JuJu is famous for being famous…not for being a great NFL WR. JuJu should tithe to Antonio Brown for giving him a career notoriety (that he does not deserve).
Chase Claypool (3-54-0/8) should be starting over JuJu…and James Washington (0-0-0/0) and Diontae Johnson – but Chase isn’t…as the Steelers lose their passing game and lose games, Claypool gets de-featured.
Seriously…nothing…not a peep about how bad Mike Tomlin has managed this offense in 2020…or 2019…or 2018? OK.
That screen pass to open up the 2nd-half…a thing of beauty, and yet Claypool was not featured before or after that play. We can’t trust CC for Week 16 because they aren’t using him heavy and Ben can’t throw passes longer than Tua Tagovailoa anymore.
-- Gio Bernard (25-83-1, 1-14-1/1) puts up this kind of stat line against the vaunted Steelers defense. I’ll never believe in ‘this team has nothing to play for and this other team has everything to play for’ – as soon as I think that I will go with/bet on the team with nothing to play for.
Also, I’m never going to try and project that any team will take a look at its younger players for the future late in the season in a lost season. In fact, I literally sent myself a note from the past to the future on this. Last year (2019), I made a note and put it on a timer reminder to myself…and it arrived to me this past weekend. It was a note from late season 2019 ‘me’ reminding late season 2020 ‘me’ NOT to assume teams will rest starters or play younger players at the end of the season, even Week 17…that the concept thought is a myth and most all starters played all their games in Week 17, even the ones with nothing to play for, because NFL coaches are totally insane. Because that’s what happened by and large in 2019 at the end, even Week 17.
Gio all the way Week 16!!! And Week 17!!!
ANY 2021 FUTURE THOUGHTS (Dynasty Offseason or Stash Items):
-- Jaylen Samuels (1-4-0, 1-12-0/1) entered the game before halftime in the two-minute offense. The most gifted talent the Steelers have at RB…he couldn’t get on the field all 1st-half when the Steelers were being shut out and not gaining an inch running the ball.
Samuels caught a pass on 3rd-down and long, with the Steelers running out the clock (I guess), and he jetted downfield (short of the 1st-down) and then headed out of bounds – not what Tomlin wanted, I guess. Samuels was never seen again.
See: Note above…NFL teams are not giving other RBs a chance when current failure is evident. NFL head coaches fall in love with one RB and you aren’t changing it. Only season-ending injuries above them can get these talented backups a chance…it has to be forced-hand due to injury.
I’m not ever going to try and guess a talented RB to overtake the known, beloved starter, again. I’ll just wait for the inevitable injury and then go pounce on them off waivers or have the talented backup stashed waiting for that injury…injury that hits most RBs in a season, even if just missing a week -- so fantasy RB opportunity will fall my way every week most season (2019 was an outlier). I don’t have to force it/over-invest at RB.
I am doing the opposite of heavy RB next year in fantasy…and every year after.
Jaylen Samuels is dead.
Bennie Snail (18-84-13-23-0/4) is the odds-on favorite to be the Steelers lead back Week 1 of 2021…as long as Mike Tomlin is there, and James Conner is not re-signed.
Anthony McFarland (1-5-0, 1-9-0/1) will get extra chances and be the handcuff…because he went to Maryland, and Tomlin loves players from Maryland. It’s all very high tech the way NFL teams are run…
IDP/DST NOTES:
-- Somehow the Steelers got their arses kicked with Ryan Finley (7-13 for 89 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 10-47-1) throwing 13 times for 7 completions for 89 yards. You’d think that would be a good sign for the Texans-DST for Week 16…but that assumes the Texans would do something they’ve not done all year – be good on defense no matter who the opposing QB is. Bad assumption.
The only real assumption…if Finley is at QB Week 16, bench all your Bengals WRs for FF.
SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:
38 = Gio
12 = Perine
07 = Trayveon
51 = Snail
07 = Jaylen
07 = McFarland
59 = JuJu
53 = Diontae
43 = Claypool
27 = JWash
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Bills 48, Broncos 19
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Do you believe me now…that the Buffalo Bills are the best team in the NFL? Some in the media began to jump on this theory during this game week. I was proposing it three weeks ago. This upcoming week, many more will jump on the bandwagon. Many others will never allow the thought to hit their brains…it’s not possible for them that the Bills would be the best team in football.
That’s why I’ve been betting the Bills heavy the past few weeks – football people don’t want to see them as THEE top team, so they’ve been undersold and thus the Vegas lines under stated. I fear that with a 29-point massacre on national cable television…my easy money won’t be as easy ahead. It was fun while it lasted.
Outside of perception discussions, this was a quality win on the field. I was worried that this was a spot where a ‘favorite’ gets a close call – coming off big wins, positive media buzz gaining, playing a losing record team to take lightly, the Denver altitude effect on visiting teams (and look what happened to LAR and PIT this week). There was reason for concern. However, I bet heavy on the Bills again for the simple belief that – if I really believe they are the best team in football, a top Super Bowl contender…then this is the type of game top teams go ‘handle their business’ on. And that's just what they did. This game was never close, not for a moment.
Buffalo wins their 4th in-a-row, seven of their last 8 games…a Hail Murray from 8 wins in a row. They are the AFC East champs for the first time in 25 seasons. They have vanquished the Patriot way, finally…and will for many years to come, I suspect.
Denver was overmatched and it got away quickly. This is what happens when you face a superior team. It’s not a crime. They play at LAC next week – the Monday line jumped to LAC -3.0 (it was LAC -2.5 Saturday), but the fact that LAC won on a solo night game and Denver got embarrassed on a solo night game…I’ll be taking Denver and the points for sure Week 16. The public will be swayed by what they just saw…but barely beating the Raiders is not a gold star event, and the Broncos getting throttled by Buffalo isn’t a punishable crime. The public will make it one.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Josh Allen (28-40 for 359 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 3-33-2) was going for an MVP stat tally game here. He almost had 1-2 other TDs in this game. It was really close to being like a 50-60 point offensive outburst if they wanted it, but after some penalties and a bad ref spot on a 4th & 1 run near the end zone forced a change of possession – the Bills started to throttled it back a little bit and ran the ball a bunch late to run out the clock on this game and didn’t gun it for more points. They were merciful at the end.
Patrick Mahomes is the most owned QB among the FFM-nation (Dynast, Redraft, Best Ball).
Kyler Murray (#1 owned in Dynasty) and Justin Herbert are very close for #2 most-owned overall (Herbert an early pickup in many redraft leagues). And Josh Allen isn’t close to the top 3 on FFM-ownership but we added a bunch of his stock in-season this year -- with hardly anyone owning him to start the season.
Herbert kind of fell into our laps in redraft, and several of us ran with it…and he helped carry teams to the FF playoffs and then put up a nice playoff game event here.
Allen, everyone had to go acquire him on purpose. It took faith. It took effort to get it done. For all of you that took that plunge – this one was for you. Another huge Allen event…and this one at just the right time.
Most people with Mahomes and/or Murray and/or Herbert and/or Allen made their FF playoffs this season, and all those guys came up big just at the right time this week (Mahomes the weakest of the group for Week 15!).
For weeks, I pushed Allen as an acquisition…even as he had ascended…because FF-society didn’t believe. Now, that shopping center is closed – no more Dynasty deals to be had this upcoming offseason. Everyone is into Allen now. Those of you that made the move earlier, getting ahead of the market…congrats. Look back at what you traded to acquire him…and then smile and enjoy the fruits of your labor.
There were people who LIKED Josh Allen to start the season. I was not one of them.
There were people who noted his hot start and were liking him a little bit, but did FF-nothing about it (many were willing to trade him, many analysts kept naming him as a ‘sell high’). I was not one of them.
I was the guy who went bananas over what I saw and become the loudest voice in the room for Allen, our #1 ‘buy low’ during the first quarter-to-half of the season. I was chasing him/pushing him even when people turned on him Weeks 5-6 when they lost two games. I saw what was happening and changed course.
You can be wrong about scouting on a player, but if you’re the first to change course and go into action on your beliefs – you can win. Just noting that Allen looked better, but doing nothing about it in Fantasy, got you nowhere…but going all-in crazy about it, that was the win.
I also implored you to chase Stefon Diggs at the same time…because if Allen was who I thought he was becoming, then definitely pay the price to get his top WR – because if Allen was hot then his #1 WR would be a payday too. Some were able to and changed their FF fortunes as we went.
-- Patrick Mahomes has Tyreek Hill. Justin Herbert has Keenan Allen. Kyler Murray has DeAndre Hopkins. Aaron Rodgers has Davante Adams. Russell Wilson has D.K. Metcalf.
Josh Allen has Stefon Diggs (11-147-0/13).
That’s the listing of the six best/difference making QBs in the NFL/FF, for my money…and their #1 WR.
Through Week 14, the PPR PPG leaders at WR:
1) Adams
2) Hill
3) Diggs
4) Metcalf
5) Allen
6) Ridley
7) Hopkins
Are there more talented WRs than those guys? Sure. It’s a question of talent PLUS the QB, the offense you play in.
I was watching Diggs in this game, and my mind was telling me…this is what Antonio Brown looked like in his prime.
Some of you acquired Diggs early on when we went Allen-crazy. Congrats to you on that winning move. People liked Diggs. We had to LOVE him and be willing to pay a good price early this season in order to get a GREAT return. Many did.
I will probably remember this season for Allen and Diggs more than anything…because that we had to work for it – and both were guys I did not like at all for FF 2020 coming into the season. Those who pulled off one or both…reaping the rewards now. This was no ‘good to get if you can’ throwaway, tepid, generic opinion – I went bonkers for this, and wanted you to go bonkers too. There’s a difference…and that difference made all the difference. Congrats to those riding the wave on it right now.
-- The #2 receiving options for these elite QBs are not near as productive. The elite QB has his #1 WR…and wears him out. The #2 WR is more random and not top 10 in fantasy production.
Where the elite QB usually goes to, aside from their #1 WR, for activity/TDs/some nice FF production…is the TE.
Mahomes…Kelce (we barely remember that Sammy Watkins is on that team).
Rodgers…Tonyan (now 10 TDs this season)…and MVS and Lazard go games with almost no targeting.
Hebert…H Henry. Mike Williams has been a ghost more than not.
Wilson…Will Dissly has shown TD production in the past but keeps getting hurt. Tyler Lockett has fallen way off.
Kyler…Arnold is starting to score TDs on limited targets. (Kirk is a bit player)
Allen…it has to be Dawson Knox (2-36-1/4). Knox has a TD in three of his last 4 games. He’s been hurt for a chunk of the season and is now just getting back to form. Knox is a neat under-the-radar guy to acquire low and see him rise to an 8-10 TD season in 2021 with Allen still playing at a high level.
John Brown has been the best of the #2 WRs here, but he can’t stay on the field. Gabriel Davis (2-18-0/5) has scored TDs in his absence, but he has otherwise blended into the background as a generic WR on the field. I see no star power or aggression with Davis.
*Note…if Joe Burrow is going to join this elite QB list, then we have decide – is it Boyd or Higgins as his guy? And I’m betting the Bengals acquire a TE in the offseason (draft or FA) to push Sample into a blocking TE.
-- Last week, Drew Lock (20-32 for 132 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 5-37-0) had 4 TD passes versus Carolina…and this game’s pregame show was filled with many now in love with Lock because of it – because the NFL only exist in what you did last week statistically, heck I heard Michael Irvin (on the GB-CAR pregame show) say he was with Rodgers over Mahomes for the MVP because Mahomes has 3 INTs in the prior week.
All those Lock lovers are all turning on him 4 hours later after this loss and poor stat result. It’s like no one has any context – lock tore up Carolina, that should be taken with a grain of salt. Getting worked by Buffalo’s defense right here…not a crime. But it’s being made out to be.
Now, I turned a corner somewhat with Lock last week too. But I’m not one of ‘them’/the others that fell ‘in like’ with him after Week 14 because he had great FF numbers. I hope I’m not one of ‘them’.
I’ve been a leader in banging the drum that Lock is not ‘it’. That’s he’s a weak QB to target with your DSTs. And that’s been a more smart way to play him for FF than not for two years now. However, something changed last week.
Lock’s Week 14 game made me ponder…I’d been mentally noting Lock was looking a little better on tape (but then dismissing it as fast as I could) the past few weeks. Then I looked at his recent numbers, and they were better than I realized was happening. So, last week’s Broncos game report – I moved to ‘neutral’ off of ‘perpetual sell’ on Drew Lock. I was willing to see more of his work before damning him any further.
As I also stated with my Lock move to ‘neutral’ -- what happened with Josh Allen from 2018 to 2019 to 2020, cannot be ignored. Not saying every QB needs three years with no critique – but ones with all the tools, and from this new era, starting show glimpses maybe deserve a pause or a re-think. I’m willing to do that with Lock.
So, then he comes out here and gets squashed by Buffalo. Now, all his fair-weather analyst fans are bailing…as they do. But I’m not. I was impressed with this game from Lock – this was a top defense and then knowing he was going to throw (in a huge deficit) and Lock didn’t collapse, didn’t totally humiliate himself…that’s a step in the right direction. He ran for some nice 1st-downs instead of trying to force passes. Others will re-write him off after this game, but I see some progress in this. The lack of full respect for Buffalo is putting focus onto Lock as ‘bad’, when it should be that this was a bad matchup.
I’m not endorsing Lock…but I am seeing some positives. I am ‘neutral’. I could go either way ahead. If anything, this is a deep roster Dynasty buy moment…a #3-4 QB add/stash/throw in to see how he develops. I don’t want to invest any real resources into him, but depending upon my roster…I’d buy some shares of a penny stock people don’t like. I think that’s where we should be at with Lock…likely not paying off, but for the price of near-zero…worth a look, perhaps.
Don’t forget…Lock is from the new era of college passing games – where the NFL is a breeze with its better receivers and better blocking than what they had in college. New era QBs from Air Raid type systems walk into the NFL and blow it away. Maybe Lock needed more time, grooming, maturation.
I still think Lock is too flawed to ever be a QB1, but we’ll see. I’m not trying to get Lock to win me a Super Bowl in the NFL, but if he can help me win games in fantasy…OK. Or I can flip him in trade for a gain later if he heats up even more.
-- Noah Fant (8-68-1/11) was Lock’s top throw…again, more maturation of Lock. Buffalo’s secondary is borderline great, you can only beat them with the TEs or RB-heavy targeting.
This game flow…
15 catches/19 targets = TEs + RBs
5 catches/13 targets = WRs
If Lock does improve…Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant will go for the ride. Not Patrick-Jeudy-Hamler.
-- In three of their last 4 games, the Bills-DST has held opponents to under 20 points in a game. Facing the Patriots Week 16…top 5 play.
They’ve held five of their last 8 opponents to 21 or fewer points.
They just lack a real high-end pass rush to really juice the DST scoring. They did get 3.0 sacks and 1 fumble recovery TD in this game.
-- FYI, it’s Jeremiah Attaochu (4 tackles, 1.0 sacks) time. That means it’s later in the season, and he gets healthy for a few games, and goes on a sack tear.
In his last 16 games played, back to the 2019 season, he has 7.0 sacks, 12 TFLs.
He can just never stay healthy.
Snap Counts of Interest:
34 = Gordon
23 = Lindsay
07 = Freeman
39 = Singletary
34 = Moss
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Packers 24, Panthers 16 (Short Report)
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I normally write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
SHORT REPORT is a ‘just the facts’ report on this Week 15 game with a Week 16/title week focus for conveying what we need to know.
GAME ANALYSIS:
Shocking game here. Really, one of the most stunning games of the week…but it’s going to get lost under the weight of the Sunday games (this game was SAT. night) and the fact that most people thought this was over at halftime.
It was 21-3 Green Bay at halftime, and I had commented to someone that Carolina looked like they weren’t interested in being there – it was cold, their season is effectively over, and they were unprepared for the field conditions…slipping and sliding all over the place.
Then something shocking…something radical happened…
Carolina completely shutdown Aaron Rodgers in the 2nd-half…they shut the entire Packers offense down in the 2nd-half – and there was little reason/hope for them to do so…they could’ve just mailed it in, and no one thought differently about getting crushed by Rodgers. Honestly, Carolina was probably the better overall team here. To me, it seemed like Carolina didn’t account/plan well for the cold, misty, slippery field to start this game -- they fumbled a goal line TD event (slick ball did not help) and they dropped several passes and slipped and fell in coverage too much. Despite all that, Aaron Rodgers could not produce offense on demand in the 2nd-half. Actually, he weas running for his life in the 2nd-half.
At one point, late, the Panthers deployed a strategy of kicking a field goal (on 1st-down) before the two-minute warning to cut the game to a one score game and use the two-minute wartning to their advantage…then they fully kicked off to Green Bay, daring them to try to get a 1st-down and thus win the game – they couldn’t, but almost. Carolina got the ball back with less than a minute to go 70+ yards, but they ran out of time. Green Bay wins, but it felt like a loss…if anyone really watched it to the end.
Green Bay is now (11-3)…a very weak #1 seed in a very weak NFL Conference (compared to the AFC). Watching Carolina slip and slide all over Lambeau is the reason #1 seed matters here. The only way Green Bay is getting to the Super Bowl is if they home field advantage their way to it. Week 16 v. TEN is going to be a battle. GB should finish at least (12-4) and get that top seed with the Saints and Rams losing this week.
Carolina falls to (4-10) but this game was a moral victory and a glimpse at how much coaching matters. Matt Rhule and his staff coached a near masterpiece here…on the road, season over for motivations, down 21-3 at the half, and they had the inferior team. Carolina is going to be a dominant team of the next decade…and should start to show the signs of it in 2021. I’m selling everything I own to bet the Carolina over next year…with every loss in 2020, that over/under is going to stay lower. They’re (4-10) but they’ve played like a (9-7) team they just got a bad schedule and bad breaks at the wrong time (and not having CMC hurt as well).
WHAT DO WE NEED TO KNOW FOR WEEK 16:
-- Curtis Samuel (2-6-0, 4-42-0/9) got good opportunity in this game, but he dropped at least two passes…if not three. Simple passes, like little swings out of the backfield. Not normal for him.
Is there a concern? Not really. I mean, I hated it that 4-5-6+ PPR points were tossed away here – but it was cold and foggy/damp and the ball was squirting out on a several Carolina players. Teddy Bridgewater (21-35 for 258 yards, 0 TD/0 INT, 4-26-1) fumbled at the goal line twice, but one of them counted – and no one is suggesting he’s a problem. It was just that kind of game.
-- Speaking of Teddy…he ran for a TD here…his 4th rushing TD in the past five games…his 5th rushing TD of the season, making him top five among all QBs in rushing TDs. He fumbled at the goal line for a 6th TD early this game…then fumbled again near the goal line for a 7th rushing TD possibility.
I don’t know what is causing it, but Teddy has gone mad running – and he’s thin-framed, so he’s going to get hurt if he keeps it up. Good for his FF numbers…bad for everyone else’s (Mike D, CSam, etc.).
-- Another useless FF week from Allen Lazard (5-56-0/6) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (0-0-0/1). Before you totally write them off…one of them is probably going to score a TD this week facing Tennessee’s defense in Green Bay. I bet on Lazard for whatever it is worth (which means big day for MVS).
-- Mike Davis (14-59-0, 2-2-0/2) is becoming RB3-ish too much now. If Christian McCaffrey is returning, CMC and Mike D. will probably split time Week 16…and both be FF-useless. But if McCaffrey says he’s going to play, it’s going to potentially be like a Week 15 Keenan Allen event – you’re almost forced to start him Week 16 if he’s active.
CMC owners, the best thing that could happen is that they shut him down so you don’t have to sweat it.
ANY 2021 FUTURE THOUGHTS (Dynasty Offseason or Stash Items):
-- Just one note here…
A.J. Dillon (1-18-0) came into this game during the early phase where it looked like GB was going to win by 100+ points. He took a carry and ran straight off tackle and people bounced off him like he was the Incredible Hulk and mere mortals were trying to stop him – it wasn’t happening. 18-yard jaunt.
Just a reminder, to myself (and anyone else interested) – A.J. Dillon is a freak show. He is plus-sized, all muscle, thick, a high-end athlete in speed/burst and near un-tackle-able with any head of steam. He’s going to matter in fantasy in the years to come.
IDP/DST NOTES:
-- GB rookie UDFA LB Krys Barnes (6 tackles, 1 TFL) did it again. Played 45% of the snaps and made a ton of tackles again. That guy is addicted to making tackles. One of the top tackles-per-snap IDPs in the game. The future looks IDP promising here.
Not sure he can matter much for Week 16, because he is still not playing a full game. He’s just rotational right now. Starting, but not playing full games.
SNAP COUNTS OF INTEREST:
60 = Davante
48 = Lazard
40 = MVS
56 = A Jones
05 = Dillon
04 = Jamaal Williams
62 = Robby A
58 = Samuel
56 = DJ Moore
37 = Mike D
24 = Rodney Smith
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 15 Game Analysis: Chargers 30, Raiders 27
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
A must win game for the Raiders…a change at defensive coordinator for the week (a short week change, which was really odd)…facing an always special teams mistake-prone, poorly planned Chargers team.
Everything stayed the same…
The Raiders defense was worse than ever…like usual of late.
The Chargers tried to give the game away a thousand times with bad special team’s work (two missed FGs late) and various other Anthony Lynn ridiculousness (we’ll get into). Like usual all season.
The Raiders lost a key game…like usual of late.
Justin Herbert overcomes everything to keep LAC in it…and to win it. Like usual, whenever LAC does win games – which is a rare event.
You could do a graduate school thesis paper studying all the ways these two teams displayed poor management leading up to the game and then exacerbated it by the in-game play calling/strategies. I can’t even get into them all here because it would take too much time away from the fantasy considerations.
Basically, the two head coaches are so married to their lead running back they can’t see straight and thus all the other aspects of their team is underutilized, underperforming (when they have so much more to offer). The difference between the two teams is -- in crunch time, in desperate times, off-script…the Chargers have Justin Herbert and the Raiders don’t. Thus, the Chargers win…because of Herbert bailing out the awful Anthony Lynn Ekeler-centric game plan.
Eight of the first 9 series of this game, for both teams, the very first play of the series was either a run or throw to their running back.
The Raiders need a miracle to make the playoffs now at (7-7) after this loss…they need to win out and then pray for a lot of things to go their way. It’s pretty impossible. The Raiders have gone from a top 10 NFL team hopeful after Week 10 to one of the worst teams in the NFL in record time. That miracle end/win over the Jets…it wasn’t a fluke. The Raiders are that bad now. They’re missing a ton of defensive players on top of other mounting issues. They’re ‘done’ for 2020.
Break up the Chargers! A two-game in streak. Two lucky wins where Justin Herbert bailed out Anthony Lynn’s game plan, in-game coaching decision confusion, and special team’s follies. It’s fine by me…I bet them ‘under’ 7.5 wins for 2020, and at (5-9) with two games remaining – they can’t beat me. Win all you want! Just, for Herbert’s sake…please fire Anthony Lynn after the season.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- If Justin Herbert (22-32 for 314 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT, 4-14-1) didn’t get to OT, he would have had a 250+ yard passing event with just 2 TDs (no rushing TDs)…a very basic FF event. The OT session got you over…or made you mad if you didn’t start him…or mad if you faced him.
To me, it was more evidence that Anthony Lynn is killing Herbert…keeping the Ferrari in the garage at all costs it almost feels like. Lynn is simply a terrible head football coach for a team with an elite, future Hall of Fame QB talent. Lynn would be a great college coach for a run-based team. He’s a terrible NFL head coach. He’s so sold out to Austin Ekeler and his RB-duo plan/philosophy, he cannot see straight. Herbert being a mad downfield bomber gets in the way of his ball control, tough-guy-running playbook.
Justin Herbert’s short-term future FF value rides on who the 2021 head coach of LAC is. If it is Lynn…then Herbert is a top 10 FF QB. If it is anyone with half a passing game brain…Herbert could push Mahomes, Kyler and Allen for the #1 spot in fantasy.
-- You had to start Keenan Allen (1-17-0/3) this game. You had no choice. He was active. He was working out fine pregame. He looked fine in-game.
My frustration is…why was Lynn bothering to put him in at all? Allen started…looked fine, then all the sudden was out for a series at a time, then would get thrown in for a play here and there. You know what’s great for an athlete with a hamstring issue? Standing idle on the sidelines for 10-20-30 minutes at a time…and then coming cold to run timing routes in key situations.
If Keenan was good enough to go…keep him out there.
If Keenan was so bad off…never put him out there.
But, Anthony Lynn has same amount of business sense or football personnel sense as the amount of times I have or will watch any ‘Masked’ ____ TV event – which is zero. I can’t wait to guess which ‘D list’ celebrity or football player might be in that costume! I’m on the edge of my seat…
Also…Mike Williams…same. Why bother? Additionally, I’m so over my ‘with Hebert’ interest in Mike Williams – always hurt, always disappointing.
You wanna know how stupid the Chargers franchise is…how poorly run?
They exercised Williams’ 5th-year option. He’s set to make $15.7M guaranteed in 2021. They made that decision this summer.
Message to the Chargers’ Owner, President, and/or General Manager: https://youtu.be/eHExP1Mn4S8
-- OK, Marcus Mariota (17-28 for 226 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 9-88-1) is back in our lives…and he’s doing what he should’ve done 3-4+ years ago, and he would’ve been a star – by being a trailblazer-ish run-first runner-thrower…instead of a run occasionally but try and be a pocket passer (not his call…the NFL ruined him).
Mariota was either not allowed to do what his gifts begged them to do (run a lot) or he didn’t want to/was scared to…but now with his career on the line, he’s willing to run…for now. Which means…he’ll still be desperate next week – and he’ll run and run and run. 100+ yard rush game threat coming next week.
It’s not totally insane that Mariota plays so well over the next week or two, Gruden falls in love and we have a new LV QB for 2021…while a drafted QB sits…and Carr is elsewhere (Indy). There will be a lot of ‘look at how well Ryan Tannehill has done with a change of scenery’ comments.
-- With Mariota running, you can’t like Nelson Agholor (4-49-0/8) for that good FF game potential he’s had more weeks than not this FF season.
Hunter Renfrow (1-4-0/2) and any other WR are also wastes for FF.
-- Tyron Johnson (3-61-1/5) and Jalen Guyton (4-91-0/6) had very solid games here…more evidence of how good Justin Herbert is. More evidence of how much Mike Williams is not needed. More evidence of…if LAC gets better WRs (via draft or free agency) to go with Allen – this offense, Herbert, could go ballistic in 2021 and into the future.
If they keep Lynn, they’ll keep all these mediocre WRs and try to be a run-first team. Keeping Anthony Lynn for this team’s make up is the Chargers dooming themselves for 2021.
-- Speaking of dooming yourself… Why is Theo Riddick (1 carry, -5 yards) on an NFL roster and getting into games and touching the ball. Jon Gruden is out of his mind.
-- Kenneth Murray (8 tackles, 1 TFL) continues his ascension…9.3 tackles per game, 1.0 TFLs per game the past three games.
-- Two LV IDP notes…
1) LV rookie UDFA LB Javin White (1 tackle) – remember the name. Athletic, hard hitting safety prospect being converted to a linebacker. He’s gotten huge in a body transformation.
2) I was asked a question about Maxx Crosby (no stats)…whether he was ‘mailing it in’ this game. To answer the inquiry: I didn’t see any loafing or issues.
My take would be…
a) The Chargers Right Tackle ate him alive. Scary that #74 RT Storm Norton can make a spot start and hold off Crosby all game.
b) Crosby played 92% of the snaps in an OT game…he played a lot of snaps. He was hustling/trying all game, he eventually got gassed at various times…I’d assume.
Snap Counts of Interest:
64 = Agholor
53 = Zay Jones
24 = Bryan Edwards
13 = Renfrow
53 = Guyton
39 = Tryon J.
28 = MK Williams
24 = Keenan
15 = KJ Hill
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Seahawks 40, Jets 3
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
Game review: The Seahawks beat the Jets by 37 and were playing backups in the 4th-quarter…geez, what a shock. End of review.
I knew when they fired Gregg Williams, the Jets defense would go in the tank – like him or not, the defense was the only thing the Jets had…a bulldog tenacity that didn’t realize how big it was/wasn’t…always willing to fight to the end. Now, that’s gone. Thus, the Jets will lose out…unless the Patriots are out of the playoffs and decide to lose to the Jets Week 17 to keep them from getting Trevor Lawrence.
My Survivor pool picks can have me/us running against the Jets the rest of the way…and we will until we see about Week 17.
Seattle has this quasi-bye week win to go to (9-4), in a race with the Rams for the NFC West…which they will lose because they are not in the Rams’ class anymore. Seattle may be playing their 1st-round playoff opponent in Week 15…at Washington.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- I was pleased to see that Josh Adams (6-27-0, 2-3-0/2) led the Jets in rushing. So what…it was only 27 yards? Let me enjoy my life for a moment without spoiling it with details.
Frank Gore (8-23-0) started and was Frank Gore…nothing.
Ty Johnson (8-16-0) was actually in on the 2nd play, rotating in and out early with Gore…but doing nothing as well.
Mid-2nd-quarter, game getting out of hand, Adams entered and reeled off another 10+ yard run (12 yards) and that was too much success to handle, so he rotated with Gore-Johnson the rest of the way as they lost 37.
We gotta see what this Gore kid is all about for the future, ya know.
*This game was a total embarrassment, as if you didn’t know from the score. No reason to talk about the obvious players…they did what they do, and then some of them didn’t play 25%+ of the game in this laugher. So, I want to write about five off-the-grid players that caught my eye here…
1) Colby Parkinson (2-16-0/2) got his first two targets and catches of his young career. Not enough time/targets to really dig into but he looked about as I expect him too – looks like a slow WR playing TE…which means he’s a quicker-than-average TE. He ran some smooth enough routes and showed a little burst after his first catch.
One of our top-rated TEs for this draft class…and better for FF than NFL purposes because he is such a promising receiver. My fear is he’ll just be a 3rd-down/pass game specialist TE – but he could be lethal in that role and the overall passing game.
He’s not going to be a full starter in 201 as Dissly-Hollister-____ (ancient blocking TE) just sit and watch on the sidelines all game…and, thus, we have to dull Parkinson’s 2021 expectations until we see how they’re going to use him.
2) SEA WR Penny Hart (1-19-0, 1-3-0/1) got a jet sweep on the first series (nice!). He later got a purposeful bubble screen.
I’m a Penny Hart fan (as a scrappy player, not sure he’s a future star or anything)…and he seems to be growing on Pete Carroll. The guy was an undersized star at Georgia State…1,100+ receiving yards and 8 TDs as a freshman, hurt as a sophomore, 1,100+ yards and 8 TDs as a junior. All this while playing with garbage/dysfunctional QBs/passing games.
Overlooked in the 2019 NFL Draft. The Colts gave him a chance first, he bounced from practice squad-to-IR-to-released then Seattle started adding and dropping him from the practice squad…but he’s worked his way to the main roster by talent, not by injuries above him.
He’s 5’6-7 and not overly fast but has football speed and determination. Good hands but quite small for the NFL game. He can make it through heart (Hart). He may have a DeAndre Carter type career ahead – popping up here and there but never locking in for consistent playing time and then just disappearing. I hope not but it’s likely.
3) The Jets added WR Jaleel Scott (1-16-0/1) in September, after the Ravens cut him (he was a 4th-round pick in 2018). And Scott was elevated here because of injuries to others.
Scott is a big (6’5”/220), fairly quick, fairly talented WR…but there is some issue, I think. Cut by the Ravens before his 3rd-season doesn’t make sense. He might have attitude issues…or the Ravens have 10,000 WRs they don’t use already, so Scott was the odd man out.
He’s with the Jets now, but likely no future for FF is imminent.
4) SEA LB Ben Burr-Kirven (5 tackles, 1 TFL) looks like he could be an heir apparent to one of those ILB spots for Seattle when Wagner-Wright are moving on. He looks like every textbook ILB…shorter, stout/thick, tackle-hungry, aggressive…but is pretty quick for 6’0”/230. He ran a 4.56 40-time with a sweet 6.85 three-cone at the 2019 NFL Combine.
5) NYJ CB Javelin Guidry (5 tackles, 0.5 TFLs)…who names their kid Javelin? His brother Shotput and sister Polevault might have been on hand to watch the game.
A 2020 UDFA corner now forced into playing due to mass injuries for the Jets. He’s pretty quick, a track star type football player – he has been impressing with NYJ since getting a shot a couple weeks ago. It’s ‘the Jets’, so who knows what that even means. I’m keeping an eye on him. Solid numbers/play from here.
Snap Counts of Interest:
37 = Hollister
36 = Dissly
19 = Parkinson
47 = Lockett
46 = DKM
39 = DMoore
33 = Swain
27 = P Hart
53 = Perriman
38 = Crowder
33 = Jeff Smith
11 = Berrios
09 = J Scott
20 = Ty Johnson
17 = Gore
12 = J Adams
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Cowboys 30, Bengals 7
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
First play of the game, innocent handoff by Cincinnati…fumble lost. Dallas stalls on their ensuing drive but gets a field goal for a 3-0 lead.
Next series, Bengals start driving down near the Dallas Red Zone…and fumble…scooped up and 78-yard defensive TD. Two drives in, two lost fumbles…10-0 Dallas. It was that kind of day for Cincy…that kind of last couple decades.
Dallas played pretty poorly. They probably aren’t much better than the Bengals today (Jerry Jones just rolled over in the coffin he sleeps in) – but spotting hapless Dallas a couple of turnovers, a quick double-digit lead…it allowed the Cowboys to just go through the motions for an easy win. Cincy had a million chances to get back into it, but the Dallas defense had a good day vs. an awful Bengals O-Line.
Dallas is now (4-9) and two games back of Washington in the NFC East with three games remaining. IF Dallas can win out and…and…you know what…? Let me not waste time typing scenarios that Dallas miraculously gets the NFC East title. Another dud season by GM Jerry Jones. We’re onto 2021…with a bloated payroll and nothing else to show for it. The Bengals are probably set up better for the future than the Cowboys right now.
The Bengals fall to (2-10-1) losers of eight of their last 9 games. Without Joe Burrow, they’re arguably the worst team in the NFL this very moment. They should finish with just the two wins and achieve another high draft pick, but no amount of draft picks can fix their overall organizational/ownership/geography issues.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The most interesting thing about this game? The Cincinnati Bengals RBs.
So, Gio Bernard (3-8-0, 3-15-0/3) starts…because we have to see what this kid is all about and definitely NOT check out the younger backs to see what they can do in a lost season.
However, Gio fumbles on the first play. But Gio is a long time, respected veteran on this team. I’m sure there will be no coaching retribution. He won’t be benched.
But he is.
Trayveon Williams (12-49-0, 3-14-0/3) then enters the game, and starts slicing and dicing his way through the Dallas defense – but then he fumbles in the red zone, Dallas scoops and runs it back. Well, now there has to be retribution? So odd that Trayveon, not Samaje Perine was put in the second series here.
Next series (#3)…Samaje Perine (10-32-0, 2-9-0/2) was in the whole series.
So, we’ve had Gio-Trayveon-Perine for the #1-2-3 series…and Perine didn’t fumble, so I guess Perine next series? Nope. Back to Trayveon Williams. Gio kept on the bench.
Halftime.
Now, I’m thinking – Cincy has never cared a wit about Trayveon Williams…but now he’s playing a lot and Gio is benched? What universe am I living in? Did Zac Taylor just get semi-smart? This is a pattern that shows me he is wanting to see more of Trayveon Williams…which makes sense, because Trayveon is really pretty talented – and showed it here on the two series he got. Let’s go, Trayveon!
Nope.
Gio takes the entire first series of the 2nd-half.
Then Gio next series.
Then Perine next series.
Then Gio next series.
Down 23 with a minute+ to go, Trayveon is back for the final nothing series.
It doesn’t even make any sense.
The takeaway? I have no idea. Trayveon got good playing time and was clearly a ‘spark’ as a runner and very much as a receiver. And then he was gone.
The takeaway? Zac Taylor, like so many other NFL head coaches – no business sense at all. No feel for talent. Gio knows the playbook best, so…ta-da. Another horrific Bengals season in the books.
Who to use for FF from this backfield Week 15? None…none of them vs. Pittsburgh.
But there’s hope for Trayveon Weeks 16 or 17…some kind of hope.
-- The best RB on the field this day…Tony Pollard (11-39-0, 2-9-1/2). Also known as the RB buried in Dallas for two more years before he can fly away in free agency…unless Zeke eats his way or smokes his way out of the league before then. Doubtful.
Pollard could do so much more as a runner, but especially could do much more in the passing game – but that would require foresight, planning, strategy. All things that will not get in the way of Mike McCarthy getting a massage in his office at Dallas HQ.
Ezekiel Elliott (12-48-0, 2-11-0/3) has not rushed for a TD in his last 8 games. He has rushed for 100+ yards in a game just once this season.
Who would have thought Ezekiel Elliott would be a worse redraft pick than Saquon Barkley or Christian McCaffrey this season? At least you could move on to other things with Barkley-CMC out. How many people got burned week after week by pushing Zeke in -- because ‘it’s Zeke, you gotta play him!’
I wouldn’t play him vs. SF this week or PHI next week, unless you had nothing else.
-- So, I’m re-watching this game and there was so much focus on ‘Andy Dalton’s return to Cincinnati’…and they keep showing his face, talking about it ad nauseum, panning to the hundreds in attendance – and I’m thinking…who the hell cares about this? People in Cincinnati don’t care as much as the TV people keep insisting that they do.
Andy Dalton is probably the happiest guy there that he finally escaped Cincinnati.
They just kept droning on and on about during the TV coverage. The amount of shits anyone gives about Andy Dalton’s emotional return to Cincinnati is equivalent to the percentage chance I’ll care about or watch the movie Wonder Woman 1984…which is zero.
The amount of previews I saw for this movie in the last week is set at 1,984…but my interest level in it, or any other Superhero movie is still set at zero.
I tried to watch the Avengers because my kids were talking about how good it was. Really? There are rare rocks that if you ‘collect ‘em all’ you can rule the universe? Sounds plausible.
I really love watching people with superpowers like where they can change time and space, be indestructible, breathe underwater, fly, disappear, conjurer spells, move things with telepathy, shift weather patterns, have special weapons, special suits, invisible planes, control the world through collected rocks…I love that they have all these abilities and toys -- and then are fighting each other every other scene by punching each other.
Look, if you wanna fight me…and I have the ability to pick up a car or Mt. Kilimanjaro and hurl it at you at 5,000 mph just be thinking it – I think I’ll go to that option first versus trying to punch your lights out.
Stupid superhero movies are like the NFL…these coaches have all this talent around them but use Gio Bernard to try and win instead.
-- Brandon Allen (27-36 for 217 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) doesn’t have any superpowers. Well, he has one gift…he’s better than Ryan Finley (1-2 for 5 yards, 0 TD/0 INT).
If the Bengals go into MNF vs. Pittsburgh with Ryan Finley at QB…what a follow up/marquee matchup to watch versus the last MNF game between the Ravens v. Browns. What appointed viewing.
Who am I kidding, we’ll all be tuned in on the edge of our seat to see if Diontae Johnson can catch a pass or not.
If Finley is starting…all the Bengals WRs are FF-dead this week. Pretty much the same for them with Allen in, but better/hopeful if Allen is in…but I don’t think Allen is going to be in.
Snap Counts of Interest:
28 = Perine
27 = Trayveon
17 = Gio
32 = Zeke
19 = Pollard
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- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2020 Dynasty/Fantasy Week 14 Game Analysis: Bucs 26, Vikings 14
I take notes during the live watch. I re-watch the game on tape looking for hidden clues to report on. Here are my notes/takes on what I saw and how it related to FF 2020. I write anywhere from 1,000-3,000+ words on each game, and I must move fast to get to all of them through the week…so, please forgive any typos/grammar.
The better team did not win here.
If I were the Vikings, I’d file an injunction and take it all the way to the Supreme Court to get this game result overturned if I had to.
Two plays before halftime were lethal…two referee calls were legit lethal to the Vikings.
#1) In the red zone, the Bucs up 7-6, Tom Brady throws a timing pass in the end zone where Mike Evans pushed off his DB as he fell down…but the penalty called on the cornerback for P.I. – setting Tampa up for an easy score after. Here’s the thing…the pass was intercepted as well. What would have been a stopped drive/change of possession turned into 7 points…that never should’ve happened. Instead of a 7-6 TB lead with Minny just forcing a turnover -- it quickly became 14-6 Tampa off the nonsense call.
#2) Not too long after, right before half, the real injustice occurred. From his own side of the field, no time left, Brady just heaved a Hail Mary to the end zone. As they do, the players jostled in a crowd for position…the ref called a pass interference in the end zone on Minnesota. What? I don’t think I’ve ever seen that in all my years. If that was a penalty, then every Hail Mary is a pass interference.
The utterly ridiculous end zone call gave TB the ball for one more play – and they took the easy field goal and 17-6 lead…it should’ve been just 7-6 TB instead…that actually should’ve been a Vikings lead. Because while the refs were jobbing the Vikings defense, Dan Bailey was jobbing the Minnesota offense with missed FGs and XPs. Bailey went 0-for-3 on field goals and 0-for-1 on extra points this day. He may not be working there too much longer.
Tampa Bay gets a terrible-looking win to get to (8-5). This Bucs team has looked bad for several weeks now. They’re running out of steam…but they should finish strong with ATL-DET-ATL the next three weeks. They’ll make the wild card with ease, and hopefully we have 50% less stories about the Brady-Arians relationship until the playoffs.
Minnesota is now (6-7) and fighting for their playoff lives. Week 15 v. CHI is their season. And then at NO on Christmas night is kinda important as well. An (8-8) finish could get them to the final wild card spot. They have to beat the Bears this week or it’s pretty much over for them.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Bruce Arians blabbed his mouth off all week about it (for reasons I’ll never understand why head coaches do this) and he did just what he said – a heavy Ronald Jones (18-80-1, 1-4-0/2) game plan. I think Bruce Arians thinks he’s the smartest, toughest guy in existence…and everyone wants to hear him talk, so he does…tips his hand all the time and he is never not him at any time…he’s always ‘on’ (in his mind). Like the world’s worst poker player who thinks he’s the world’s best poker player in the world and talks about it all the time.
Any whooo…
Jones went heavy and would again this week ahead…but he broke a finger, had surgery, got COVID reserved – so he's likely out Week 15. What will Arians do? He hasn’t blabbed it out yet, but his O-C (who is junior Arians) did blab it – they’re going with Leonard Fournette as the lead…which is funny because he was a healthy scratch this game.
Fournette is playing for whatever he thinks his future is Week 15…so he should be amped. The Falcons have a good run defense. Fournette can stay on the field on 3rd-down, but probably comes off some for LeSean McCoy (4-32-0, 1-3-0/1) with the risk McCoy shines and gets the hot hand.
*By the time I wrote this first draft, and then came back to it later to punch it up – Arians is out talking about Fournette being ready to lead the way this week…so, blabber mouths gotta blabber.
-- The Vikings TEs combined for 9 catches for 103 yards and 1 TD on 9 targets. Which should bode well for Hayden Hurst next week (vs. TB)…but Matt Ryan sucks, so…
Tyler Conklin (5-40-0/5) had his best game of 2020…he’s a solid TE prospect buried on this team…just like Irv Smith (4-63-1/4) could be a borderline star on another team.
Assuming no Kyle Rudolph Week 15, should be good for Irv this upcoming week…but note that Conklin played 45 snaps to Irv’s 28. Maybe Conklin is the better play? I don’t think you can trust either in this offense.
The TE uprising was a reaction to Tampa doing a good job shutting off the WRs…thus the Justin Jefferson (4-39-0/8) and Adam Thielen (3-39-0/4) weak FF games.
*Late note…Irv Smith AND Kyle Rudolph have been ruled out, so game on with Tyler Conklin…whatever that entails.
-- Tom Brady (15-23 for 196 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) had a so-so game. Had an end zone pick reversed on a BS call.
In his last five games, Brady has…
220 yards or less passing = three times
340+ yards passing = two times
You never know what Brady, what Buccaneers team you’re going to get week-to-week.
Which means you have no idea on Evans-Godwin-Gronk either.
I think Arians wants to play run game + defense, and Brady wants to rack numbers. We’ll see which side wins next week. The Falcons are more susceptible to the pass game then beaten by the run.
-- TB rookie SAF Antione Winfield (12 tackles, 1 sack, 1 TFL) played like a man possessed in this game. One of the best rookie safety performances in a rookie season that I’ve seen in my career. Carolina’s rookie SAF Jeremy Chinn the same – and Chinn will get more votes for 2020 Defensive Rookie of the Year, but Winfield and Chinn will both be league greats in the long run.
-- Tampa Bay-DST looks good to me for the ROS…
At ATL, with dying Matt Ryan Week 16.
At (likely) Chase Daniel/DET Week 16…awesome.
Snap Counts of Interest:
44 = Godwin
39 = Evans
25 = Ant Brown
05 = S Miller
34 = RoJo
16 = McCoy
45 = Conklin
28 = Irv Smith
