R.C. Fischer

FFM

16 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Bucs 33, Bills 27

There will be opportunities to correct it in the future, maybe…but with this loss, I believe the Buffalo Bills have been corrupted for good. They are the fallen angels of the NFL – what was a high-potential #1 seed/Super Bowl threat a month+ ago has now become a generic wild card chase team.

It’s not that this one loss is damaging their record type of complaint…that’s not what I mean. I mean this loss combined with the Patriots loss the prior week is a 1-2 punch of emotional devastation that I do not believe the Bills can get back up from…not just this season, like this was a grenade thrown into this current Bills team’s current and near-future. The past few weeks have derailed this current Bills iteration for good – only team mgt. won’t acknowledge it and they’ll try and hang on with the current group way too long before making wholesale changes.  

Bill Belichick is such a luminary…and the Patriots have been such a gold standard of crushing the AFC East under its heel for two decades, but then Buffalo broke the streak of excellence and won the AFC East in 2020. It seemed like the Bills would be the new power for years to come. And then less than a year later, Belichick with his rookie QB went to Buffalo and out-toughed and outsmarted the Bills to win a pivotal game launching the Patriots strongly into 1st-place in the AFC East.

The follow up/next week’s game could not be worse for Buffalo…this game with Tom Brady, who was also a main reason why the Bills and the AFC East were dominated all those years. If the Bills could bounce back strong and beat Tampa…then the Bills would have shown they can shake off a bad weather game loss as a fluke and are ready to take back the AFC East over the next 4 weeks. It was an ‘everything’ you’d want to know about the soul of the Bills type moment here in Week 14.

So with that…the Bills came out flat, scared and down 24-3 at halftime…and you knew it was over…over for the game, over for the franchise being an AFC beast. But then the Bills chipped back into the game in the 2nd-half and miraculously tied it with seconds remaining – the Bills were trying to win their soul back from the brink and had sent it to OT.

The Bills won the OT coin toss and it looked like they were going to save their soul after all. Nope. Three and out, and then you knew Brady would waltz down the field to win it on his first attempt…and he did. The Bills soul was dealt another death blow.

You can see it in Sean McDermott’s face in these big games. He’s on the sidelines looking like a nervous, uncomfortable, agitated adult about to give a public speech from a podium having never done so before in their life. He looks super-nervous, to me. The past two weeks, he moves around the sidelines differently than in other games. He was visibly rattled v. Belichick Week 13, right away…and the team took on the coach’s uptightness. And then in this game the team came out flat vs. Tampa, but then rallied back (when there was not as much pressure) and McDermott starts acting strange…too fired up, too holding his breath in the big moments. I think it all rubs off on the team…he’s not their chin up, fearless leader. He’s just another nervous football nerd who makes his team nervous, and who plays the game NOT TO LOSE. In this game, the Bills were 2-for-13 on 3rd-downs…that’s a team choking…because they are better than that the past 2-3 seasons. 6-for-27 on 3rd-downs the past two weeks of pressure cooker games.

This loss was bigger than just the NFL loss in a week. I think it was the final blow to a staggering group of players. It exposed the coach who has been really solid, steady in most games…but I saw the concern with him in the playoffs last season -- he puckers up in big games, and in this NE-TB 1-2 punch of games the past two weeks, he showed it again. You can see it in his face and body language.

I respect Sean McDermott, but ‘I’m out’ on him as a great NFL head coach. He’s a fine, good, solid, better-than-most team manager -- but I don’t want him coaching my team in a huge moment, in a big game. Another idol falls.

Buffalo is now (7-6), which is an embarrassment for a team that has been mostly healthy all year. That loss to Jacksonville a while back – it was not a fluke…it was a warning, a foreshadowing. The Bills have lost four of their last 6 games. Fortunately, they have an easy schedule from here and should get to 10 wins and a wild card. And they might win a playoff game if they’re an underdog, but no way they make a title run. No Tre’Davious White…no chance. No chance if Sean McDermott is on the sidelines privately quivering in big spots and that rubbing off on his team.

Tampa Bay is one of the four best teams in the NFL, and all four of those teams are in the NFC. Arizona, Green Bay, Tampa Bay are the kings of the NFL right now -- and Dallas might get up in there to make noise if they could get everyone healthy. The Bucs are now (10-3) and have an easy schedule, so they should sweep the rest of the way and wind up (14-3) and only Green Bay can give them a race.

I think whoever is the #1 seed between GB and TB will win the NFC due to the weather advantage for the homefields. Tampa Bay has the easiest path to that #1 seed now.

Please God, may we have a Tampa v. New England Super Bowl?

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Josh Allen (36-54 for 308 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT, 12-109-1) singlehandedly got his team to overtime from a 24-3 deficit at the half. Allen is the entire offense. The concern being for Week 15, for FF…Allen hurt his toe and it may restrict him some, get him off his mechanics that are so key (for him).

I think Allen plays Week 15, but probably throttles back his running some…but he may have to throw caution to the wind as this team is drowning, but if they subdue sad Carolina quickly, he may not have to be Superman. But this Week 15 game is going to be played at a very cold Buffalo field…which makes the passing game struggle (the drops come out from them in the cold) and if Allen isn’t fully himself…yikes, for FF upside.

A bad FF-time for all this chaos to be added into the decision-making mix.

 -- I like the Buffalo passing game…when the weather conditions are favorable. I am getting to worry about it when the weather is off. These receivers drop too many passes in rougher weather and Allen inadvertently throws the ball so hard that in cold and/or rain, it can be an issue for the best of receivers…not to mention the overall shaky receivers of the Bills (outside of Diggs).

This week the weather will be ‘feels like’ mid-teens with some wind. Not a good projection for the Buffalo passing game…and with Allen having a not-100% toe issue.

On paper, Gabriel Davis (5-43-1/8) is becoming a nice sleeper for the Bills passing game, for FF…especially with Emmanuel Sanders faltering and out with injury. Davis has TDs in back-to-back games. If this Week 15 game was in a dome, then Davis might be a WR2 projection with Sanders out. But in the cold, Week 15, with a shaky-handed Davis…he’s a shaky WR3 hopeful/risk.

And Buffalo might have colder weather games the rest of the way, so Davis has a somewhat pressured upside as a new starter with Sanders out.

 -- The Bills could use a run game with the cold weather, but their main run attack is Josh Allen…and his now gimpy toe.

When the weather was brutal Week 13, Zach Moss emerged out of hiding taking the most touches – a bigger, plodding runner in the cold. Here in this Florida game…Moss didn’t see the field. He’ll probably be the lead for Buffalo in Week 15’s colder event…but that’s only an RB3-4 type hopeful.

The Matt Breida (3-12-0, 0-0-0/1) 15 minutes of fame in Buffalo seems to have expired.

 -- Breshad Perriman (1-58-1/2) was the surprise game-winning TD throw for Brady in OT. Perriman has been a ghost most of his time in Tampa the last few weeks. I don’t think anything is building with Perriman…he just had a moment.

Antonio Brown will be back next week and take back his job.

And I don’t care what Bruce Arians says/hints/is on the fence about…if he was going to drop AB due to the vaxx card thing, he would have done it already. Tom Brady runs the team, and Brady will not allow it. AB has done a thousand times worse, and the Bucs were fine with signing him. This vaxx card thing is going to get swept under the rug – my prediction. Which means, Week 16…AB is back…an option for the FF playoff run.

 -- The Bills defense got pushed around by the Bucs in this game. No Tre’Davious White is killing them…now (0-2) without White. The Bills cannot be taken seriously in the playoffs without White. They will be solid against CAR Week 15, and ATL Week 17…and maybe OK Week 16 at NE. But in the playoffs, no way they can run the table without him.

 -- The Bucs-DST has an awesome finishing schedule…NO-CAR-NYJ-CAR their final 4 games of the NFL season. They are a solid DST start in each one of them.

Snap Counts of Interest:

64 = Singletary

11 = Breida

69 = Diggs

65 = G Davis

63 = Beasley

78 = Godwin

77 = Evans

49 = Tyler J

26 = Perriman

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Titans 20, Jaguars 0

This game was a bit of a scuffle for 2.5 quarters, just 10-0 Titans leading…but it was really never in doubt. The Jaguars have no life, no offense they can muster…while the Titans have little offense as well, but they do have an emerging defense, so the Jags never got close to scoring and the Titans mustered enough offense to plod their way to a victory.

Tennessee is now (9-4) and right in the mix for the AFC #1 seed still, which is shocking because they aren’t very good without Derrick Henry but they keep getting huge schedule breaks. Huge game with PIT on the road this week. If the Titans lose to PIT, they will project to fall to an (11-6) finish and probably not a #1 seed. But if they beat PIT this week, 12 wins are very possible and a legit chance at the #1 seed.

The Jaguars are (2-11), probably headed to (2-15). In all my years of following the NFL, I’ve never seen anything like this Urban Meyer situation. He’s arguably the worst, most disconnected on-field coach I’ve ever witnessed, the worst evaluator of talent, the worst GM/personnel dealer, and he has all this off-field baggage from his bar incident, and the players and coaches and media and general public all hate him. Who is going to sign as a free agent to come play for this guy?

They should have fired him already, but the things billionaires and millionaires do and the secrets they have are things we don’t know. We see an obvious situation that should result in a quick change…but it hasn’t happened. Pure speculation/wonderings by me…but we don’t know what kind of freaky stuff Meyer and Khan are intermingled off the field, the secrets one might have with the other.

We know Urban Meyer is a pig. Patriots owner Robert Kraft was visiting $10 hookers in bad neighborhoods in Florida (and had it all swept under the rug, because he’s a billionaire and you’re not). Jerry Jones is a purported freak show off the field. We don’t know what Shad Khan is into with Urban. Sounds like a reach by me – but is it? Maybe they’re as clean as the wind driven snow…but maybe not? It’s the only thing I can reach for to understand why Khan hasn’t fired Meyer 10x over already.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The Tennessee backfield report, after watching this game and really focusing in on the RB flow, here’s my general feel…

D’Onta Foreman (13-47-1, 2-15-0/2) started and was in most every snap of the first series…a long, steady TD drive…capped off by Foreman rushing it in for a TD.

Dontrell Hilliard (6-13-0, 0-0-0/2) started the second series and was in and out with Foreman most of the 1st-half.

The first half was mostly Foreman, with some Hilliard and light Jeremy McNichols (8-16-0, 0-0-0/1)…McNichols who was the team’s 3rd-down back until he got concussed and then Hilliard came in and stole it -- and this was McNichols first game back from that injury.

Foreman got dinged up in-game as the Titans seized control, so Foreman was out for a bit and Hilliard got more work and then McNichols played a lot more as the game was really subdued. And Foreman was not seen in the 4th-quarter, nor much of the 3rd-quarter.

The final snap counts:

27 = McNichols

24 = Hilliard

23 = Foreman

The final touch counts:

15 = Foreman

08 = McNichols

06 = Hilliard

My overview would be: The Titans worked behind Foreman early. When Hilliard was put in, he seemed to remember (this week) that he’s ‘Dontrell Hilliard’ and he was ineffective/awful (tackled easily, and a nothing in the pass game). McNichols kinda re-took the passing game RB role over midgame because Hilliard was so sluggish…and then they went heavy McNichols to finish it off, I think to get the rust off of him upon his return to action.

Hilliard may have lost his key role he had the weeks prior back to McNichols. Foreman was the Derrick Henry-alike and might have had 20+ carries if he didn’t get dinged up and the game being under control to allow him to just sit out.

We’ll monitor Foreman’s injury/practice week, but this looks like Foreman as the strong lead. McNichols as the passing game back. Hilliard in-between. Anyone could be the hot hand, but the real effort looks like Foreman to pound it and McNichols/Hilliard in on obvious passing downs…even though Foreman is the best receiver among them.

 -- James Robinson (6-4-0) was the unquestioned lead back for Jacksonville, and still is…but as his heel is an issue, and as the coach disrespected him a couple of weeks ago, and as the team spirals down – JRob’s FF output is dying. He may be an RB2.5-3.0 the rest of the way now in this mess.

No TDs the past three games and under 30 yards rushing in three of his last 4 games.

 -- You know how I feel about Trevor Lawrence (24-40 for 221 yards, 0 TDs/4 INTs), which is – not buying the generational thing or even the really good thing. This game was a bad performance on paper…but he wasn’t really that awful. He’s in an impossible situation that as the game goes on, he tries to make plays downfield to spark the dying offense…and he got picked…a lot. I won’t blast TL fully…this whole team is playing dead and at least Lawrence is trying to make things happen. He just has zero help…and he’s not that talented.

 -- Laquon Treadwell (4-68-0/6) is still operating as the (seemingly) best FF WR for the Jags, but that’s no better than 4-5 catches for 40-70 yards in a game, and almost no chance at a TD.

Lawrence has 1 TD pass in his last 6 games.

Which makes Ryan Tannehill’s (20-31 for 191 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) 4 TDs/6 INTs his past five games seem ‘explosive’ by comparison. Tannehill died, as a passer, without Derrick Henry.

 -- Tannehill’s best receiver, right now, is Julio Jones (4-33-0/6) but it’s more of a capable ‘good hands’ option, no longer an explosive playmaking one.

Anthony Firkser (4-34-0/5) was open a lot in this game, but Firkser is a random event TE…not to be relied upon for FF.

Firkser’s yards in a game his last 8 games: 9-8-7-2-26-7-34.

 -- Urban Meyer was asked something about why the young players weren’t playing more, and he commented on rookie safety Andre Cisco (1 tackle) playing more this game on defense…and then it was revealed Cisco played 0 snaps on defense this game (17 on special teams).

Again, I have never seen anything like this Urban Meyer stint in the NFL.

 -- The Titans-DST is getting better and better, as they get healthier and healthier. They got the shutout here, but against the Jags it’s not a momentous feat.

The Titans-DST should be decent against PIT Week 15. They might be solid Weeks 16-17 hosting SF and MIA. There is some FF DST hope here the rest of the way. Not perfect but perking up and has potential.

One of the emerging bright spots on this defense is Kristian Fulton (4 tackles, 2 PDs, 1 INT) is starting to become one of the top 10-15 cover corners in the league.

Snap Counts of Interest:

52 = Westbrook-Ikhine

43 = Hollister

32 = Julio

35 = JRob

12 = Hyde

04 = Ogunbowale

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year! Hopefully…

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies. 

Ross Jacobs

FFM

15 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Falcons 29, Panthers 21 

I hate both of these coaching staffs so much right now. Arthur Smith and Matt Rhule both make so many inexplicable decisions but in different areas.

I will admit Smith's offense is starting to grow on me a little. They are getting better as the year wears on, especially on the offensive line. What was once one of the worst groups in the league has now turned into a decent unit. Mostly it's just the personnel holding this team back...except for one glaring issue. For the love of all that is holy, why do the Falcons not make more of an effort to get Kyle Pitts involved in the game?

I simply don't understand it. You drafted a TE 4th overall because he's clearly a generational athlete and talent, he should be breaking the game right now, but instead you've got him running boring ass routes from 1993 and there's no effort to intentionally target him. It's mystifying. I absolutely love Pitts the player. I hate how he's being used. I do think Smith is going to make this into a good offense once they get a better QB, but I'm not sure he knows how to creatively maximize the talents of Pitts. I'm getting more and more afraid that we are in for a decent career from Pitts, the kind of career where he continually finishes in the top 3-5 TE's for fantasy, good, solid, but not transcendent like he should be.

Part of the problem is Matt Ryan just sucks now and can't hit Pitts even if he's wide open (which he's usually not through no fault of his own). Ryan keeps throwing such atrocious passes to him that Pitts has to make ridiculous adjustments just to catch the ball. Ryan has possibly one more year left in Atlanta and that's only a possibility because the Falcons are going to have poor draft position to nab a top QB.

Which brings me to my beef with Matt Rhule. His fatal flaw so far has been his choice of QB's. He dumped Cam for Bridgewater, then Bridgewater for Darnold, then Darnold got hurt so he brought Cam back, and he's got Walker backing all of them up. Rhule deserves to be fired simply for his gross mismanagement of this one thing.

After this carousel of ineptitude, Carolina really only has one course of action this off-season...they have to land an elite QB through a trade. The most likely candidate, and probably their only hope, is Deshaun Watson. Get him and your problems (short-term ones anyway) are over (assuming he's cleared of all criminal charges). Don't get him and you're facing a PR nightmare heading into another season with garbage at the helm. The seat is already getting quite hot for Mr. Rhule. I would recommend he not let his wife choose any more of their draft picks and stop bringing in guys he coached in college just because he knows them. That recipe never works out well for college guys.

The Panthers’ defense has been on a skid the last three weeks against some less than stellar offenses. What happened to that nasty, aggressive defense from early in the season? Not much honestly. They are still pretty good. The issue is that the offense is doing them no favors constantly turning the ball over. Regardless of their problems though, there's no way you can start them the rest of the year, not against this schedule. The Bucs twice, the Bills, and the Saints. Not a recipe for success. Steer clear.

The Falcons defense you could think about using against the Lions in a pinch, but I can't recommend them anywhere else. They aren't terrible, but you should be able to find better streaming options.

Fantasy Notes

--So what's going on with Cam Newton (15-23 for 178 yards 0 TD/1 INT, 10-47-1) and PJ Walker (6-12 for 75 yards 1 TD/1 INT)? Newton started the game and got pulled at one point because of an injury. But after a few more mistakes he was pulled for real and Walker was inserted at QB. Then for some reason Cam rotated back in for a few snaps, then was out again, and finally came back in to finish the game off after it was clear Walker was failing hard.

Honestly, Cam didn't play all that badly. He did throw a pick 6 after a LB dropped into coverage from a weird spot and lost a fumble trying to hand the ball off after slipping, but for the most part it wasn't terrible. Walker was terrible and won't be starting, that I'm sure of. Cam will start until Darnold is healthy.

If the Panthers were playing some weak teams I'd say fire Cam up in 4-pt leagues, but he's playing the Bills and Bucs and Saints...not defenses you want to mess with. I think this is going to be a bloodbath coming up for Carolina. Do not be afraid of this offense. They are very mistake prone right now. The Bills, wounded though they are, are going to kill them and the Bucs might join the party too now that they are getting healthy again. In fact, Tampa is a great stash for your week 16 championship matchups and most people won't be on them because they still remember the Bucs getting beaten up on early in the season.

--I've discussed Kyle Pitts (5-61-0/6) so much this year and I'm sick of saying the same thing every week. Nothing is changing here. You're getting 5-7 targets for 4 or 5 catches and about 50 yards every week. No touchdowns to speak of because Ryan doesn't throw many and all the scores go to Patterson anyways. Pitts is just another TE2 right now. He's not even in the TE1 discussion because he can't score. There. You're welcome. I just jinxed myself and he'll go 7-81-2/9 next week just because I said he's nothing. I'll even bench him on my own team just to guarantee it...

--Qadree Ollison (5-23-0) was strangely in the game late icing the clock with Mike Davis. Patterson wasn't seen the entire 4th quarter. I'm not sure what that was about since there doesn't seem to be any injury for Patterson. I guess Arthur Smith just wanted to give Patterson a rest and knew he could salt it away with the other two?

Whatever the reason, Ollison took some important late carries to run the clock out and looked the same he's looked whenever he's gotten the chance. He's a solid, straight ahead power runner. Think D'Onta Foreman, a very poor man's Derrick Henry, the generic brand Henry. I don't really see a future for Ollison, not as a starter. Maybe he takes some backup carries if the team moves on from Davis, but they'll draft another RB to take over for Patterson when he's done. Ollison is ok, but he's never going to be the starter here or anywhere else. Don't waste your time in dynasty.

--Robby Anderson (7-84-1/12) finally had a good game. He won't get another. A good chunk of his work here came with the Panthers trailing late and the Falcons playing soft defense. It also came with Walker at QB for obvious reasons (they played together for Rhule at Temple). Once Cam is back at QB Robby won't matter again.

--Brandon Zylstra (4-45-0/5) is rotating in over Terrace Marshall for the WR3 spot and looks like the better option. It's damning for Marshall that he couldn't take this job with everything going for him including his college coach at offensive coordinator. Joe Brady is gone now, so Marshall doesn't even have that going for him in 2022. Things are not looking up for him.

IDP Notes

--Jeremy Chinn (13 tackles) has been on fire lately. One of the best young safeties in the game along with Kyle Duggar. His numbers could be down a little against the Bills this week because they rarely run, but he's an auto-start against the Bucs and Saints.

Snap Counts of Interest

38 = Ameer Abdullah

25 = Chuba Hubbard

62 = Robby Anderson

57 = DJ Moore

36 = Brandon Zylstra

30 = Terrace Marshall

35 = Ian Thomas

34 = Tommy Tremble

R.C. Fischer

FFM

15 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Chiefs 48, Raiders 9

This game was 35-0 right before the half, but then Vegas kicked a crucial field goal to cut it to 35-3 at the half. This was never a game. Five turnovers, 4 lost fumbles…the Raiders watched their season slide right down the drain, and any chance the interim head coach had of keeping this job for the future…flushed down the toilet.

The Chiefs are (9-4) and leading the AFC West by a game…over the Chargers, who they play in a huge matchup on TNF this week. Win…and a #1 seed is still possible. Lose…and they are in a dogfight to the finish with LAC for the AFC West title. Win Week 15 and they likely finish (12-5) and a possible shot at a #1 seed over New England or Tennessee. Lose Week 15, and they could wind up (11-6) and possibly a high seed wild card. With their experience, you have to assume they win Week 15 and go on to win the AFC West…but it’s not a given.

The Raiders lose and plummet to (6-7) and last place in the AFC West, but still alive in the wild card. Alive but pretty much dead. Losers of five of their last 6 games and they may lose out to finish (6-11), (7-10) at best and a re-rebuild goes underway in 2022.

There’s not much to take away from this game study – it was over so fast, and players were pulled by KC as they coasted to victory.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Josh Jacobs (9-24-0, 5-46-0/6) fumbled on the first play of this game, and KC scooped and score…setting the tone for this nightmare.

All the Raiders have left is Jacobs at RB, and now Derek Carr is throwing to him a bunch…so he’s a legit option in PPR week-to-week (5.0 rec. per game his last 6 games), as the Raiders slide down a hole and don’t have any other weapons they want to use.

I mention Jacobs here, because he is falling out of favor fast in Las Vegas. 2022 may be his final season there. Jon Gruden desperately, expensively signing Kenyan Drake might have been one of the first signs of concern. Jacobs is losing FF momentum in the public square, and a new head coach might be a problem for him, to a fresh start. He might even be traded this offseason, if they can find a taker.

He went to Alabama, so there will be a taker…but it might be to put him in a split role, not a feature.

 -- Mediocre FF-games for the KC-Three (Mahomes-Tyreek-Kelce), but you can blame the game flow getting out of hand for the lack of a need to press numbers.

Patrick Mahomes (20-24 for 258 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) only threw the ball 24 times…the lowest pass attempts ever for him, in a game where he played 90%+ of the snaps. He might have had 400+ yards and 4+ TDs if this was a game, but it wasn’t. Don’t blame him…you just have to ride him if he’s your obvious guy.

Tyreek Hill (4-76-0/4) went along with Mahomes. Tyreek came up gimpy on his last catch and he spent the 4th-quarter mostly out of the game…in this low target/pass attempt affair.

Travis Kelce (3-27-0/4) has the same excuse, but he’s starting to worry me. 1 TD in his last 8 games. Under 10 targets in a game in five of his last 6 games. Suddenly, he’s not getting treated like a star like the past few years. Week 15 v. LAC is a good matchup to rise back, but if he doesn’t…are we nearing an end to the Kelce run? He is 32 years old. He should still have another year or two, but he’s not looking as spry as prior years. All will be forgiven with a big week on TNF this week. Like Mahomes or Tyreek…you just gotta ride it out and do-or-die with these aces.

 -- Zay Jones (5-25-0/7) has 7-5-7 for targets in games the past three weeks, as he’s becoming Derek Carr’s favorite WR with Darren Waller out. Still…not a heavy dose of action and still low yardage and no TDs. It’s not a great opportunity, but it’s up off the ground a bit at least.

Darren Waller is not likely to play Week 15, and Foster Moreau is now hurt as well. Zay might get an 8-10 target game Week 15, perhaps…but probably for 40-50 yards and no TDs.

 -- Josh Gordon (2-9-1/3) scored a TD…alert the media…he’s back…he’s a star again.

Nope.

He just got a gimme, cheap short TD toss…and little else, as usual. Nothing developing here.

 -- Keep an eye on Malcolm Koonce (1 tackle, 1 sack).

Week 13 = 7 snaps, 1 sack

Week 14 = 15 snaps, 1 sack

A great rookie pass rush prospect getting his first two games of work in 2021…and he should get more opportunity each week. Maxx Crosby has 3.0 sacks in his last 12 games. Koonce has 2.0 sacks in 22 snaps played in 2021.

 -- Rookie SAF Divine Deablo (10 tackles) is playing more with the Raiders injuries at linebacker. He started this week and produced nicely…now, back-to-back weeks with heavier snap counts and 10+ tackle counts each game. He probably fades back some when Denzel Perryman is back.

 -- The Chiefs defense is on fire…six games in-a-row holding opponents to 17 or fewer points, and in seven of their last 8 games. It hasn’t been a murderer’s row of offenses/QBs, but it’s happening. Week 15 may be a rude awakening vs. Justin Herbert.

Snap Counts of Interest:

44 = Tyreek

40 = Pringle

30 = D Robinson

24 = Gordon

23 = Hardman

23 = D Williams

23 = CEH

20 = Gore

62 = Moreau

01 = Daniel Helm

R.C. Fischer

FFM

14 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Chargers 37, Giants 21

24-7 LAC at halftime.

37-7 LAC with 4+ minutes remaining.

But then some garbage, a botched onside kick recovery…and suddenly it’s 37-21 with 1+ minute left and NYG driving. LAC buckled down and shut NYG down and got out of there with a 16-point win that was more like a 50+ point win turned into a 16-point affair via end of game malaise. It was never really close. NYG is a defeated group – still trying on defense but no offense at all.

The Chargers are now (8-5), and they are still only going as far as Justin Herbert takes them, because otherwise this team has a ton of holes. I’d love to see them solidify/gel and beatdown KC Week 15, but we’ll see. KC has the experience…but a ton of holes themselves. The Chargers are pretty locked for 9 wins, more likely 10 wins by season end, with a shot at winning out for 11-12 wins and an AFC West title. We project 10 wins because they’ve been sloppier than KC this season. LAC is headed to the playoffs either way.

The Giants (4-9) are not headed to the playoffs and are now entering a phase where they will be subject to incessant rumors on a coaching and GM change. I’ve mentioned it a few times – they should stick with this management team at least one more season. Injury and bad luck have doomed them as much as anything. They have a good core…they just need a real QB. NYG will finish with 5-6 wins and who knows what coach in 2022.  

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The big question from this game for Week 15 is – is Austin Ekeler (12-67-1, 2-170/4) going to play, and if not…who is taking his touches?

My guess, right at this moment, is that Ekeler will play and be fine. Brandon Staley has said Ekeler could have gone back in Week 14 if needed. I buy that…this game was so far out of hand it was easy to pull Ekeler off the field and keep him safe in the 2nd-half.

If Ekeler is a scratch for TNF Week 15, it seems clear to me that Justin Jackson (9-35-0, 1-7-0/1) is the guy they would trust in the Ekeler role, and he’d take a 70/30 or better share splitting with Joshua Kelley (10-33-0, 1-5-0/1).

When this was still a game, JJax was in taking relief/split touches with Ekeler. Kelley didn’t really get his work in until later when this was getting out of hand.

Jackson could be an RB1-2 projection for Week 15 with Ekeler out of the way. I just don’t believe it will happen that Ekeler is out.

 -- No Keenan Allen (DNP-COVID) gave us a good dose of/preview of Josh Palmer (5-66-1/7)…and we now see he belongs. He’s like if you took Keenan and Mike Williams and mashed them together – good-to-great hands and physical, nit s blazer/speedster and just normal height for a WR.

Palmer was a debated prospect going into the 2021 NFL Draft – was he athletic enough to matter in the bigs? He’s not speedy, but he’s a good football playing WR. He may allow LAC to just let Williams go in free agency 2022.

Speaking of Big Mike (6-61-0/6)…once again the best-looking (eye appeal) WR on the field in this game/in the NFL…and just a ho hum FF result. Big Mike is becoming the Kyle Pitts of WRs. He gets all the defensive attention, so Herbert just smokes the defense with all his other options – which is great for the NFL, sucks for Big Mike for FF.

Jaylen Guyton (3-87-1/3) has back-to-back weeks with a TD. My knee-jerk reaction is…he’s not very good, so I’m looking past him -- but my reaction now should be/will be…it’s good to be the #3 WR working with Justin Herbert. Anyone on the field with Herbert has FF hope. Guyton might be becoming Marquez Valdes-Scantling west coast edition.

 -- Justin Herbert (23-31 for 275 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) is starting to play lights out again…playing like 2020 where despite all the other issues (lack of blocking, unimaginative play calling, a weak run game) Herbert just out-talents the obstacles and gives the team a chance to win. He was so low-key great here.  

Herbert is now #3 in FF PPG and #2 in total yardage among QBs, less than a hundred behind Tom Brady.

My mind says KC beats LAC on TNF this week, but Herbert there makes me think they got a chance to take the mantle of best team in the AFC West…and best QB in the AFC away from KC Week 15.

 -- And then there was Mike Glennon (17-36 for 191 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT)…the anti-Herbert…

Actually, he’s not playing terribly…it’s just this offense, this team is so miserable, and the receivers drop so many passes. I’ll just note, for time sake, that every receiver related to Glennon is not worth your time in FF.

Sterling Shepard (2-27-0/4) is only a thing with Dan Dimes.

Kadarius Toney (DNP) could be something, but I’d guess this offense, this whole team vibe is going to put a lid on anything Toney could do…if he ever returns to action.

 -- I’ve been bragging about the LAC-DST and this finishing schedule (Week 14, and 16-17). Well, we almost got a gem here…only 7 points allowed with 4 minutes left…then a bunch of bullshit happened/they laid down just trying to get out of there.

The Chargers are an average defense…it’s just playing against garbage offenses puts them on the DST map. Week 16-17 v. HOU-DEN should…SHOULD…be good but you’ll hold your breath. Having lost Derwin James (COVID) right before this game did not help matters here. He’ll be back for TNF.

Snap Counts of Interest:

33 = Ekeler

20 = JJax

19 = Kelley

62 = Palmer

59 = Mike Williams

42 = Guyton

33 = McKitty

31 = Cook

29 = Parham

38 = Barkley

28 = Booker

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

Ross Jacobs

FFM

14 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Packers 45, Bears 30 

The Bears got off to a hot start here and with the help of a few fluky plays and some heroics from Jakeem Grant, they somehow managed to lead this game for quite some time. Of course, it was not meant to be. Chicago simply can't hang with the Packers, and Aaron Rodgers just methodically carved them up until the ending was no longer in doubt.

The Packers are up to 10-3 with the North all but theirs already. They currently have the #2 seed, but they might be able to get to the #1 seed if Arizona stumbles against a much more difficult schedule than what Green Bay has to face. I think the Packers will ultimately wind up with the top seed, and that is going to really change the nature of the NFC playoffs because teams would much rather go play in Arizona's dome than deal with the cold if Wisconsin.

This is a really good team and they are just getting better by the week. I wasn't a fan early on but I see it now.

The only thing holding them back is health. Jaire Alexander sounds like he'll be available this week or next week at the absolute latest. When he's back GB is in the conversation with Arizona for best defense in the league. Stokes and Douglas have been fantastic but Alexander takes them to another level. There were a few crazy broken plays in coverage last night, but I'm not concerned about it. Sometimes things happen.

David Bakhtiari probably needs more time. He practiced once at the end of November but his knee acted up on him again. He's still a few weeks away at best but it's possible he'll be ready for the playoffs.

A possible larger issue developing is Aaron Rodgers and his toe he fractured in November. Apparently he aggravated the injury during this win and it's causing him a great deal of pain. He looked into surgery when it first happened and decided against it, but now that might be back on the table. If he does have a procedure done it would likely be to immobilize the toe. You can imagine how that might make life difficult for him in the pocket. Mahomes dealt with something similar last year in the playoffs, and we saw how that turned out for him.

It's still very early and we don't have much information yet, but my best guess is Rodgers attempts to play through this and is somewhat affected by it, again much like Mahomes was last year. Getting Bakhtiari back would greatly help as far as protecting Rodgers so he doesn't have to move as much. If those three players can all play then this might be the best team top to bottom in the entire league. They are close to being the best even without two of them.

The poor Bears fall to 4-9 and don't have a lot going for them. Chicago fans are probably feeling ok right now thinking they just gave the Packers a run for their money, but honestly it was pretty fluky that the Bears were even in the game and the Packers still stomped on the gas pedal and ran them over. They might get lucky and win another game or two, but all that does is drop their draft position down even farther.

I can't see how Matt Nagy survives this. There have simply been too many problems, too many issues exacerbated by him that have dropped this team into a death spiral. Drafting Justin Fields was a last ditch effort to provide a spark, and you see how that turned out. The media won't catch on for 4-5 more years as Fields goes the way of Darnold, but you and I know he's not a franchise QB. Never was, never will be. But now the Bears are saddled with him for at least another few years. It's not going to be pretty.

Fantasy Notes

--First things first...did I not warn you about Jakeem Grant two weeks ago? Now I'll admit I didn't see this type of breakout coming but only because I thought the Bears would never up his snap counts significantly and actually get him the ball. Credit to them, they saw what I saw and it kept them in this game for a bit.

Grant isn't a superstar player. But he is a very fast, solid, useful guy to get touches to. It's amazing to me that coaches still don't understand the very simple strategy of getting the ball directly to their most explosive players and letting them try to make something happen.

Every middle school kid knows that's how you play. Who's our fastest guy? You? Ok, let's give him the ball every single play and it doesn't matter if the other team knows it or not, they aren't fast enough to stop him forever. Instead, these genius coaches would rather draw up some complex gobbledygook play with 37 words in it for his players to try and memorize and then throw a curl route to some slow ass 275 lb TE. Nothing makes them happier than that.

Back to Grant. He's a good player. Definitely should be on the field taking screen passes, reverses, a couple handoffs, returning punts..etc. Just get the ball in his hands and sometimes magic happens like it did here. Honestly, they still aren't going to him often enough, but hey it's a start. Still don't think he's usable for fantasy yet, but now that they've seen what he can do...we'll have to see.

--RC's big call from this game was for the emergence of Marquez Valdes-Scantling (3-20-0/5) and that didn't work out so well, but note MVS just missed out on two possible TD's here. One was a tough catch that went off his hands and another just out of his reach. The opportunities were there. I think perhaps we were a little overzealous with him, but he is very close to popping a bit. I'd treat him as a WR3 for the time being.

--Part of what's holding MVS back a little is the re-emergence of Allen Lazard (6-75-1/7). This is the first time in a while that I've seen Rodgers actually trying to work Lazard as something other than a random option. I don't think Rodgers will throw for 341 yards most weeks, so I wouldn't count on the heavy yardage totals for Lazard, but he might be getting a few more scoring options his way with Cobb out. Maybe it pushes Lazard to a low end WR2? He's definitely in play again.

--Another big change with the GB offense that's helping...AJ Dillon (15-71-0) is the new main carry back and Aaron Jones (5-35-1, 3-30-1/3) is being used as a change of pace/3rd down back. It's a fantastic plan for the team, but it's going to be somewhat frustrating for fantasy owners.

Jones “started” the game as usual, but Dillon was quickly in and taking the bulk of the work. He's their grinder, their bully they use to help wear down the defense. Think Derrick Henry's early years before he became the entire offense. Unfortunately for Dillon, while he's now getting good carry counts, Jones is still getting most of the red zone opportunities, at least for now.

I think you can consider Dillon a RB2 now. He didn't have any catches here, but he's usually involved in the passing game a little and he should also get more short TD's soon. If you have Jones I'd be worried. The TD's propped him up here but those won't always be available. My best guess is he's still probably a low RB2 but I wouldn't swear to it.

--I've bashed Justin Fields (18-33 for 224 yards 2 TD/2 INT, 9-74-0) a lot this year and for good reason. He's not a good QB. The numbers look ok here considering the caliber of defense he was playing against, but about 100 of his yards came from Grant and Byrd blowing through the defense by themselves for long TD's.

Long term I don't see much hope for him. He's skittish and inaccurate. Short term he works pretty well for fantasy now that he's running more. I'm still never blown away by his runs though the way I am with Lance or Hurts or Taysom. You'd think a 225 lb guy with 4.4 speed would be more explosive than he is. I'd consider him a QB 1.5 for now.

*RC NOTE: I thought this was one of Fields’s better games…showing some hope of being a Jalen Hurts type QB…a more willing runner of late (partially because he struggles as a passer). Being a Hurts-type QB is sweet for FF…not so great for NFL purposes. 

Lamar, Hurts, Fields, Cam, Taysom…the football world's future is not going to the ‘running QB’. It’s a myth…it’s actually a problem (for the teams getting suckered into it). It looks sexy. The media loves it. But the reality is…old Tom Brady and broken toe Aaron Rodgers are exponentially more NFL-valuable/more ‘winning’...but less ‘cool’. The cool kids like the runner-QBs because they also like cartoon depictions of the players who just a scored a TD to pop up on their TV screen, because nothing equals ratings like fans you have to drag/sucker into the product.

Why can’t football go…”Look, we’re football. We’re the greatest episodic TV show on the planet. We’re everywhere all week if you wanna watch. We get millions of viewers because people play Fantasy and gamble on it. We don’t need to try and get 0.1 more ratings by acting like goofs and spending time/money to bait the uninterested in watching with cartoons, contests, and televised games on Nickelodeon. We’re football. If you wanna watch the Masked Singer…God help you, be my guest. We’ll be over here with a Jacksonville game on a Thursday Night that will beat any TV show you got all week, so no more song and dance routines to get you interested, and insulting our vast existing customer base.”

IDP Notes

--De'Vondre Campbell (16 tackles) is so so so good. By now anyone that reads my reports knows I've been a fan of his for several years now. I don't care what PFF had to say about him in the past. They claim he was a journeyman, average LB and only suddenly this year morphed into one of the league's best. That's obvious nonsense. Campbell has been playing at an extremely high level going back to his time with the Cardinals and Falcons. There was no reason he should have been available to sign so cheaply this off-season.

GB is the winners for it. Campbell is playing DPOY caliber football. He might get a little consideration for it but I doubt he wins no matter how deserving. It's a shame. Hopefully the Packers up his pay next year. The man deserves it and more. He has become the heart and soul of this defense in one year. It's truly incredible.

*RC NOTE: The same PFF who dismissed Rasul Douglas, too. 

Snap Counts of Interest

58 = Davante Adams

53 = Allen Lazard

43 = Marquez Valdes-Scantling

35 = AJ Dillon

29 = Aaron Jones

57 = Darnell Mooney

48 = Allen Robinson

36 = Damiere Byrd

29 = Jakeem Grant

R.C. Fischer

FFM

14 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 14: Cowboys 27, Football Team 20

24-0 Dallas at the half. And as we are learning in the NFL the last 2-14 weeks…no huge lead is ever safe. Teams take a big halftime lead and start to go into a shell in the 2nd-half, while the down team starts playing with reckless abandon. The ahead team plays not to lose…and then they almost do lose.

Washington had this 24-point lead down to 27-20 with 3+ minutes left, and with the ball -- but as they drove down for a game tie/win/loss…they threw a pick…and ‘ballgame’. It really shouldn’t have been that close; Dallas was the superior team. It was fluky that the WTF’s got back in it, one part Dallas being sloppy, one part fluke. Washington is no serious threat to Dallas.

The Cowboys are now (9-4) and in total control of the NFC East. I’d argue, at full strength, they are possibly the best team in the NFC…but they can never get to full strength (now Tyron Smith is going to miss Week 15). Maybe by the playoffs they can get healthy – their big lead in the East allows them to maybe coast a little, throttle back a little and heal up some players. Dallas should finish with 12 wins and a long shot hope for a #1 seed…but more likely they are a #3-4 seed in a loaded NFC.

Washington is (6-7) and doesn’t belong in the playoffs…but they still have life. All I care is they get to 8 wins to ‘push’ my ‘over’ 8.0 wins preseason bet on them. We project that’s where they end – 8 wins, and out of the playoffs.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Three Dallas players don’t look totally ‘right’ to me. They are…

The first of three is Dak Prescott (22-39 for 211 yards, 1 TD/2 INT)

4 TDs/5 INTs the past 4 games. 6 TDs/6 INTs the last 5 games. Under 240 yards passing in four of his last 6 games. And the slide is happening against weaker pass defenses.

Part of the issue is some of that time he missed Tyron Smith in some games during that stretch, but only a few. Part of the issue, from what I am seeing…Dak just looks a tad jittery/jumpy/not himself passing, to my eyes. I don’t know if it’s an injury he’s keeping to himself…or if it is residual from last year’s injury...or I don’t know what it is, but it hasn’t been great…and we know Dak is pretty good/great.

Something is up and it is dragging down some players around him, for FF.

 -- The second of the three is the worst-looking one… Ezekiel Elliott (12-45-0, 1-15-0/6)

One catch off 6 targets this game. Unbelievable.

Another sub-4.0 ypc game…five games in a row. Zeke’s last 7 games ypc per game…

Week 8 = 3.1

Week 9 = 5.1

Week 10 = 2.9

Week 11 = 3.6

Week 12 = 2.8

Week 13 = 3.5

Week 14 = 3.8

Zeke has a sprained PCL, and that is like a weight on your back trying to play with it…reduced speed, reduced agility…beyond the pain/discomfort. Everyone can see it. He needs time off. He probably won’t get it. Given the 3-game lead now and facing NYG this week…MAYBE they really throttle him back and let his knee have an extra week to heal. Why they keep pushing him all week, I have no idea. Once healed, he’ll be fine.

Tony Pollard has a torn plantar fasciitis, and he may need another week or two…or go on IR. If so, Corey Clement (13-44-0, 1-2-0/2) is the ‘next man up’…and that may matter vs. NYG. He may see 10+ touches Week 15…maybe.

Clement has been a long-time grinder backup for the Eagles, then released by the new regime, and picked up by Dallas and he’s been rostered all season. He’s a low-end athlete, but experienced, tough/a grinder.

 -- The third letdown of the Dallas triumvirate is Amari Cooper (5-51-1/7). He’s not playing poorly…he just looks like the least dangerous of the Dallas trio of WRs anymore. No longer ‘wow’ or ‘elite’ or ‘the man’.

CeeDee Lamb (7-61-0/10) is the Dak go-to anymore, but Gallup looks way better/quicker/more effective than any of them.

Since Michael Gallup (5-60-0/9) has returned to playing 90%+ of the snaps (Week 11), look at the target distribution between Amari and Gallup since then…

5.0 rec. (9.3 targets), 61.5 yards, 0.25 TDs per game = Gallup (last 4 weeks)

3.3 rec. (4.5 targets), 45.0 yards, 0.25 TDs per game = Amari (last 4 weeks)

Gallup has caught 5 passes in a game for four straight games. Amari has caught 5 or more passes in a game 4 times this season (in 11 games).

The new pecking order for the Dallas passing game…

Lamb

Gallup

Cooper

 -- Not Dalton Schultz (1-4-0/3) in the pecking order…he is dead to me. I didn’t believe Gallup would be heavily involved upon his return, as he’s been a ghost with the trio back to 2020 – but I was wrong, way wrong. Schultz has died since Gallup returned…something I also did not believe would happen.

 -- Antonio Gibson (10-36-0, 2-5-0/2) was crushed by the revamped/healthy Dallas D-Line, and then fumbled…which has been an issue. He got benched again. But when this game got back to being a game…he was back in. Blame this one on the Dallas D.

 -- With a week to get ready to deploy all necessary assets, Curtis Samuel (0-0-0/2) saw no catches and no carries. Message received. I’m done with him for 2021, and we’ll have to reevaluate him for 2022 in this weak offense.

Terry McLaurin (0-0-0/4) was busy putting up another dud then was out due to a concussion…and still not any extra Samuel to try and push their (supposed) best offensive weapons.

 -- Ricky Seals-Jones (1-8-0/4) and John Bates (1-19-0/2) were nobodies here -- but blame Dallas some…WSH needed extra blocking from the TEs.

Week 15, they face the TE utopia of the Eagles defense. RSJ might matter Week 15…maybe.

 -- The Dallas-DST is smoking hot right now. I’ve been saying for a few weeks that Dallas could be an overall monster (as a team) when they get all their D-Lineman back healthy. Well, Week 14 was really the first time the main guys played together…

Randy Gregory (1 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT, 2 QB hits)

Neville Gallimore (2 tackles, 1 sack, 1 QB hit)

DeMarcus Lawrence (2 tackles, 1 sack, 2 QB hits)

Micah Parsons (3 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 2 QB hits)

9 QB hits for Dallas D…5.0 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 1 pick.

Guess what’s gonna happen when they face the Giants Week 15?

Snap Counts of Interest:

48 = Bates

31 = RSJ

42 = Humphries

40 = D Carter

40 = Sims

33 = McLaurin

23 = Dyami

14 = CSam

75 = Amari

70 = Gallup

57 = CeeDee

54 = Elliott

31= Clement

02 = J Hardy

‍

‍

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

13 December 2021

A look back at the Chargers 2021 season via RC's weekly game recaps/analysis with 2022 notes/comments added to this review...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

11 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Colts 31, Texans 0

Not a whole lot to say about this one. It was a straightforward beatdown by the Colts. Not sure why you would expect anything else from the Texans at this point. They aren't a remotely good team.

I do have to give Houston some credit though. Despite the season going down the toilet from the very beginning, I haven't seen the Texans quit yet. They are still out there giving their best every week, especially the defense. Those guys really bottled up Jonathan Taylor quite well for most of the game.

Houston has a chance to maybe grab one more win against the Jaguars, but ideally you'd like to lose it to get as high a draft pick as possible. The loser probably gets the 2nd pick in the draft and the winner should get the 3rd. Not a massive difference either way.

Indy finally climbs to a winning record at 7-6 and they are one of the hottest teams in football right now. You definitely don't want to face them in the playoffs, but they might not even make it after their poor start to the season. The next two games will likely decide it for them as they get the Patriots at home this week and then go to Arizona next week. Win both of those and they very likely come from behind to win the AFC South. Even just 1 win out of those two might be enough if Tennessee stumbles at the end of their schedule, but the Titans beat the Colts twice this season and therefore win the tiebreak. They probably need to get to 10 wins to have a chance.

I'll guess Indy finishes 10-7 but 9-8 isn't out of the question either. Assuming Tennessee holds on for the division title, the Colts will be in the mix along with the Chargers, Bengals/Ravens, and Bills for the three wildcard spots. Their win over the Bills could come in very handy in tiebreaks. My guess right now would be that they will make it in as the 7th seed at 10 wins, the Chargers and Bills get the final two wildcard spots at 11 wins each, and the Bengals win the North with 10 wins after Baltimore collapses down the stretch to miss the playoffs entirely.

Fantasy Notes

--The Texans announced this week that Davis Mills (6-14 for 49 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) would finish up the season as the starter over Tyrod Taylor. It's the right call. Taylor never should have gotten his job back in the first place. Mills isn't great, but he's young and has some tools you can develop. Let him get some experience, take a few more lumps, then reevaluate in the off-season to see if you want to move forward with him or draft a QB.

You can't play Mills in redraft right now. The team around him is simply too poor. He might be ok in the future if they can build the team up, but that's at least 2-3 years away. More than likely though Houston will be drafting a QB with their first pick. Mills hasn't been nearly as bad as we thought he would be, but he's still not on the dynasty radar.

--I guess Rex Burkhead (8-30-0, 1-15-0/2) is the starter for the Texans at RB now...for what that's worth. If you're absolutely desperate for RB points maybe you could start him against the Jaguars.

--Pharaoh Brown (4-23-0/5) brought in 4 passes here and has apparently ascended to the starting job at TE. He's the best they've got at the position, but that isn't saying a whole lot. He's not usable in redraft and will quickly be replaced by Brevin Jordan in dynasty.

--Ashton Dulin (1-2-1/1) got a TD here. Yay for him I guess. He's WR4 for Indy right now and has Mike Strachan looming. Not a bad player, you can't tell much of a difference between him and Zach Pascal for example, but he's not a player I'll ever be interested in for fantasy.

--One mildly interesting deep sleeper here is Colts rookie RB Deon Jackson (6-19-1). Jackson got a little mop up duty at the end of this game and looked like a fairly generic power back, not bad by any means but nothing special either. He kind of reminds me of another former Colt, Jordan Wilkins.

Jackson spent 4 years with Duke where he never really broke out. His production didn't stand out nor did his pro day, and thus he went undrafted. He does have good size at nearly 220 lbs to go along with probably 4.6 speed (he allegedly got a 4.42 at his pro day but it didn't look like it here), a 36” vertical jump, and an average 7.14 3-cone.

If Jackson was ever handed main carry duties for a couple games he'd probably do just fine especially behind this great Colts offensive line. I don't see a hidden star though, and he won't be seeing the field much behind Taylor.

IDP Notes

--My god Kamu Grugier-Hill (20 tackles, 1 sack, 3 tfl) went absolutely nuts here. He's been putting up decent stats all year, but this was insane. If you had him started at LB for whatever reason, congratulations! This wasn't some kind of coming out party or anything though. He's a decent player, but this was just a result of Taylor taking a million carries straight up the gut and Grugier-Hill being the only viable LB after Zach Cunningham was surprisingly inactive and then cut shortly after the game.

Speaking of Cunningham, he was cut for disciplinary reasons including a mandatory COVID test that he was late for. Houston decided to not play him as a healthy scratch and then obviously cut him. They had apparently had enough of his attitude, and it sounds like he was tired of the situation in Houston which is understandable. It's an unfortunate end for the NFL's leading tackler in 2020. The Titans picked him up off waivers due to his connection with Mike Vrabel, but it'll be a few weeks before he sees any playing time if at all.

--Kemoko Turay nabbed 2 more sacks here to give him 5 on the season. It's a good start to his young career, but I honestly don't see anything to get excited about. These were both hustle sacks, nothing he did to beat the offensive line (which is damning because this line is terrible).

Snap Counts of Interest

54 = Michael Pittman

54 = Zach Pascal

32 = TY Hilton

22 = Ashton Dulin

42 = Jack Doyle

31 = Mo Alie-Cox

43 = Brandin Cooks

31 = Nico Collins

30 = Chris Conley

32 = Pharaoh Brown

22 = Brevin Jordan

24 = Rex Burkhead

22 = Royce Freeman

R.C. Fischer

FFM

11 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Seahawks 30, 49ers 23

This game was somewhat back-and-forth, sometimes sloppy, sometimes hard-nosed. Either team could have won. The 49ers had four end zone shots/goal-to-go types at the end of the game and couldn’t score to tie/win. Seattle had a score off a 73-yard fake punt TD run to get this party started. It was a fun game to watch. It was evenly played…hard hitting and sloppy, mostly. Seattle won, and they deserved to – they had more energy in the end.

Seattle (4-8) wins a huge game to keep their season alive by the dimmest of hopes and having now two wins over SF may come back to help them in the wild card if they can ever get to it…they need to win out. Three of Seattle’s next 4 games are with HOU-CHI-DET…three great opportunities to win, which would book 7 wins. Week 15 they are at LAR…and that will be for the Seattle season, as every game is right now – Seattle needs to run the table to get to (9-7) and try and sneak into the wild card. The schedule can help them get there; they just have to do their part…no room for error. It’s a tall order, so they will likely finish with 7-8 wins in the end.

The overrated 49ers fall to (6-6) and have a more choppy schedule ahead. They have ATL and HOU ahead, so 8 wins is almost in the bag. They would need one more win to get to 9 wins and thus in the wild card discussion…one win out of the other three games being at CIN, at TEN, at LAR…three tough road games. Not going to be easy. We project they will slip into the 9-win group and have a wild card shot with wins over wild card contenders LAR, PHI, MIN already.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Best game I’ve seen Rashaad Penny (10-35-0, 1-27-0/1) have in a long time.

Rashaad Penny facts:

1) He’s a more talented, better version of Elijah Mitchell.

2) He’s more talented than Mitchell, but his O-Line is a disaster by comparison.

3) Penny has to contend with Adrian Peterson for goal line work, and with Travis Homer for PPR work.

4) Penny did some amazing pass protection in this game…which always endears head coaches.

5) Penny is always hurt, just when you think it’s ‘his time’…he falls down.

Well, for Week 14, the pendulum of ‘good luck’ has swung hard Penny’s way – AP is out…Homer is out. And no matter how bad the O-Line is, they are facing the Houston Texans…the run defense so bad it sunk below the awful Chargers to #32 in yards per game allowed (144.2) and is #31 in rush TDs allowed (20).

It’s a perfect set up for Penny this week. God, help him stay healthy. This is his chance to shine for his pending free agency. Alex Collins should be cleared but I think this will be Pete Carroll rewarding, riding, trying to get momentum going with Penny Week 14.

 -- I thought Russell Wilson (30-37 for 231 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) started to look more like his normal self here…some of that on a shaky SF pass defense.

Wilson starting to heat up + rookie WR Dee Eskridge (3-35-1/30 starting to show a spark…Metcalf-Lockett-Eskridge can be pretty salty if Eskridge can keep getting his sea legs in the NFL. He was hurt/out early and just now starting to get comfortable.

 -- Gerald Everett (4-7-0/6) cost Seattle winning this game by 2-3 scores. He had a pass right to his wide-open hands near the goal line, but as he went to turn up field for the easy score, he forgot to secure the catch…so, he bobbled the ball in his hands 2-3x and the last attempt to re-grab it, the ball right up to a defender 2-3 yards behind him – an easy TD turned no TD and a turnover.

Late in the game with Seattle trying to put SF away, a TE shuttle-pass up the middle near the goal line…Everett caught it and headed for the score and was hit/fumbled and turnover on the 1-yard line.

In another universe, this is a 2-TD game for Everett and everyone chasing him off waivers for Week 14. Not to be…

I have some FF-faith in the efforts they are making to get Everett the ball the past few weeks…he’s a TE1 threat for me every week.

 -- Elijah Mitchell (22-66-1, 3-18-0/3) was bottled up by a very good-looking Seattle run defense. He also got hurt in this game and is going to miss Week 14. Speaking of how Penny is like Mitchell…we know Penny is hurt all the time, well…Mitchell seems to be hurt/out about every 2-3 games, no? Three separate injuries causing him to miss games this season now.

I believe Jeff Wilson will be the lead dog Week 14, with pass game support from JaMycal Hasty. Wilson practiced in full THU and FRI, so I’d bet strong on him for FF to be like Mitchell's output.

 -- Wilson’s FF upside will be hurt if Deebo Samuel (DNP), the team’s #1 RB and part-time #1 WR, returns to action. Deebo is 50-50. I don’t know if he’ll be active, or if he’d take a normal workload if he is. I’d bet Deebo inactive one more week, but that’s just a hunch on my part. It’s going to be a big deal trying to figure out whether to trust him or not this week if he is active but on a ‘pitch count’.

Snap Counts of Interest:

62 = DKM

59 = Lockett

32 = Swaim

22 = Eskridge

29 = Penny

21 = Homer

18 = AP

02 = DeeJay Dallas

49 = Mitchell

02 = Wilson

01 = Hasty

57 = Sherfield

54 = Aiyuk

29 = J Jennings