R.C. Fischer

FFM

08 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Washington 17, Raiders 15

I don’t know how they did it, but the Raiders pulled out another win by the same exact score/luck the last two weeks, a pair of 17-15 wins and a 4-game win streak.

I don’t know why they do it, but the Raiders lose every big game they’re in later in the season and botch their playoff chances right around the last quarter of the season for the past three seasons…and here they are again.

These two teams tried to out-running back each other while hoping their QB didn’t screw up and their defenses out-hustled the other. Washington got the better RB play, QB play, and about even on defense in this game – but they got the late game field goal to pull it out in the end. There are two ‘C’ teams that can give any team a run and also lose to most any team. They clashed here, and Washington won this one…would be 50-50 if they played it 100 times.

Washington has pulled themselves up to .500 (6-6) and can really throw a grenade into the NFC East beating Dallas this week. I’ll take Dallas, however…and we expect Washington to finish with 8 wins (which I need to happen to ‘push’ my over/under preseason win total bet). Nine wins is not out of the question. In no way is Washington a better team, a better representative to have the NFC East title over Dallas…but anything is possible in the NFL. One injury to a team can change everything. We project Washington to 8 wins and out of the playoffs, and out of the playoffs even if they get to 9 wins.

Las Vegas blows a golden opportunity, at home to an opponent they should have taken down at this stage of the season. They fall to .500 (6-6) and the AFC West title daydream is dead, and now the playoff dream is slipping away. We see the Raiders finishing (8-9) and out of the playoffs, last place in the AFC West.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The biggest FF news from this game is all the issues with both teams' tight ends…

Logan Thomas (3-48-1/5) looked so good in his return, and had a sweet TD catch in this game…but later got his ACL/MCL clipped and he’s likely out for the season. A guy I put a lot of redraft teams together with as a key mid-round value pick at TE…and I lost him Week 4, for 7 games, and now I’ve lost him again.

This is Fantasy Football…constantly working around injuries. Just like the NFL teams have to.

Ricky Seals-Jones was working nicely as a Logan fill-in but then he got hurt. Since them rookie John Bates (3-42-0/4) has started establishing himself. My projection ahead would be: Bates and RSJ split themselves up into TE2s. But if RSJ can’t go this week, Bates is a TE1.5 with hopes of a TD to get to TE1.

Logan Thomas essentially played 5 games this season, his 16-game (I know it’s 17 now but I’m not mentally used to those tallies) projection off his 5 games:

55+ catches, 600+ yards, 9+ TDs. Would have been TE1 work.

Might have led all TEs in TDs this season…

Sad.

Darren Waller (DNP) is out with an injury and hopes to be back Week 14 for the KC game. I think that it is 60/40 he does NOT play, and Foster Moreau (1-34-0/3) gets another full start.

Moreau has been FF-good starting in place of Waller, but he gave up an FF-dud here. Not his fault. He was barely targeted as Las Vegas only runs plays to Josh Jacobs (13-52-1, 9-30-0/9) and Hunter Renfrow (9-102-0/10) now…and then randomly everyone else sees an errant opportunity.

If Moreau starts Week 14 with Waller out…he’s a TE1 threat again.

 -- Hunter Renfrow is a secure WR1 now on volume…7.0 rec. on 8.2 targets per game the past 6 games with back-to-back 100+ yard games the past two weeks.

  -- Josh Jacobs is an RB1 now…as suddenly he’s Vegas’s new Christian McCaffrey…5.3 rec. on 7.0 targets per game the past four games. Kenyan Drake out for the season in this game has only poured accelerant on Jacobs’ rise in the passing game.

 -- Antonio Gibson is an RB1 in the same manner Jacobs is, the Football Team’s new Christian McCaffrey. 6.0 catches on 6.0 targets per game the past two weeks with J.D. McKissic hurt. And averaging 23.3 carries per game on a fractured shin.

All Gibson’s output per touch is very low, but he’s getting enough touches to make up for it for nice FF scoring…especially PPR. That PPR booster may change with McKissic back, but the carries won’t dip.

 -- Terry McLaurin’s (3-22-0/5) last 5 games: 4.2 rec. (6.8 targets), 51.4 yards, 0.20 TDs per game…a WR3. The Taylor Heinicke effect.

 -- Curtis Samuel (2-0-0, 1-0-0/1) is also getting dragged down by Heinicke. More carries than targets…I’m ‘done’ with him for 2021 if I see better bench/sit-on sleeper options in redraft.

 -- Raiders IDP notes…

Rookie LB Divine Deablo (11 tackles), yes that’s his name, played a bunch of snaps because Cory Littleton got hurt. Deablo looked like you’d expect, if you were familiar with him from college – a college safety trying to play linebacker in the NFL (for the first time in-season). He was lost in coverage a few times and may have cost them the game in a low-key way…just too inexperienced but got thrown into the deep end of the pool to try to figure out how to swim here.

The Raiders signed veteran LB Tom Compton Monday…which tells me Littleton may be missing time-hurt.

Rookie DE Malcolm Koonce (1 tackle, 1.0 sacks) played his first 7 snaps of the season. I can tell you this from those 7 snaps – he’s one of the best pass rush prospects from this draft, possibly as good as ‘the best’ pass rusher.

When I first saw him prepping for the Senior Bowl, I was like ‘wow’. He had a mild injury to deal with to begin 2021, so he missed the Senior Bowl, and got lost in the no-Combine 2021 shuffle…but wound up a shock #79 pick by the Raiders. Mayock saw what I saw and didn’t wanna wait until day 3 to try and get him.

He will race up the Dynasty Stash next rankings update. All I needed to see were these 7 snaps…wow.

 -- Is the Washington-DST FINALLY a legit DST play now? They’ve allowed 17-19-21-15-15 points in a game the past 5 games, so I’d say…yes.

Thanks a lot…only 7 weeks too late for me loving them in the preseason. So glad I ‘stumbled’ into Arizona after Weeks 1-2, where Washington was burning me.

I did not realize all they needed to have happen was Chase Young, Montez Sweat, and Landon Collins to go down and then they’d be good. My bad.

Snap Counts of Interest:

54 = Renfrow

51 = Zay J

40 = Bry Edwards

24 = DJax

55 = Ant Gibson

05 = Smallwood

04 = Patterson

Ross Jacobs

FFM

08 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Cowboys 27, Saints 17

Where to begin with this one?

The easy narrative that the mainstream is running with is that the Cowboys spanked the Saints in large part because Taysom Hill isn't a real QB. Of course they have to stick with that story because it's what fits their Jameis Winston narrative. Can't have people running off thinking that Taysom is far more effective than our beloved Jameis now can we?

What actually happened is far different.

The Cowboys struck first on offense, but the Saints quickly equalized. It was obvious from the get-go that Taysom should have been starting for the Saints all year. He provides a spark with his legs that New Orleans has been desperately needing. Of course, genius that he is, every time Taysom would string together a great drive running the ball, Sean Payton would suddenly throw 3 times in quick succession to WR's that can't get open and voila the drive would evaporate.

This was in addition to the fact that Taysom hurt his middle finger on his throwing hand very early in the game and was obviously struggling to throw the ball as effectively as usual. Did that stop Payton from attempting 41 passes while his QB was tearing up the Cowboys on the ground? Absolutely not.

This game was only 13-7 Cowboys at the half despite a couple of interceptions by Taysom. He would throw 4 in the game, and again the media makes it sound like they were all his fault, all terrible throws that no respectable starting QB would make, but that couldn't be farther from the truth. In reality only 1 or 2 were really Taysom's fault, and at least one he was essentially forced to throw late in the game into coverage simply trying to make a play. Do not for a second believe that he threw 4 bad picks on his own. This was a mix of bad luck, bad WR's, a bad game plan, and an injured finger. Taysom is fine and should absolutely remain the starting QB.

Despite everything going against Taysom and the Saints, they still had chances until late in the game. Eventually Tony Pollard broke a long run for a touchdown that gave Dallas a comfortable lead. A Taysom interception that happened to go straight to a defensive lineman rolling out was returned for a score and it was too much for the Saints to overcome. Without all the BS that held the Saints back I'd say they were actually the better team. Do not count them out if Taysom continues to start and is healthy.

Dallas lucks their way to an 8-4 record and are trying to hold off surging Philadelphia and Washington. The Cowboys still have Arizona to contend with in addition to the Giants, Eagles, and Washington twice. Those divisional games will decide the ultimate winner. If Dallas loses this week to Washington all hell is going to break loose and who knows how it will end.

The Saints fall to 5-7 but aren't out of the playoffs yet. They have 3 easy games that they should win against the Jets, Panthers, and Falcons along with two more games against the Dolphins and Bucs. If they can win all 3 of the easy games and split the other two 1-1, they'll be sitting at 9-8 with an outside chance of a wildcard spot. Lose any of those games though and they are likely done.

Fantasy Notes

--So the most important fantasy question from this game is obviously Taysom's health and viability moving forward. As far as his effectiveness as a fantasy QB, there's nothing to worry about. You see what he can do on the ground. He's a QB1 if he's healthy and starting, a Jalen Hurts-alike. Taysom could have run for 200 yards here if Payton didn't have his head up his ass.

Health is a different question. We still have to monitor the situation closely, but as best I can tell Taysom is going to try to play through the injury. So what is the exact injury and should we be scared of it?

Taysom has what is called a “mallett finger” injury, the same injury that Russell Wilson suffered earlier this year. The tip of the finger gets bent forward and it cannot be straightened because the ligament is stretched or torn. The hand will also be quite swollen and painful.

In Taysom's case, he won't require surgery because the damage isn't nearly as bad as Wilson's was. He played the entire game with the fresh injury after all. The trouble is, he isn't going to be able to grip the ball like normal. You saw how his accuracy was off during the Dallas game. He'll likely be dealing with more of the same, although with some time off to rest it and a proper splint or tape job, he might be a bit better off.

The Saints also have all week to work on a run-heavy gameplan, and I have to imagine that's the direction they take, limiting Taysom's passing as much as possible or giving him lots of short passes and screens to work with. Playing the Jets they likely don't have to do too much, just control the clock and target 20-23 points or so.

I think you can play Taysom this week barring a change in his diagnosis. Don't expect heavy passing volume though. Very likely he'll only throw 20-25 passes or so and should come in at or under 200 yards passing. What we're hoping for is 50+ yards rushing which should be easily attainable and maybe two touchdowns total. Doing that he could still hit 20 points for the game in 4-point leagues. Continue to follow any developments with the injury, but my best guess is he's going to play and be effective enough as a runner to finish as a QB1.

--Deonte Harris (4-96-1/8) will be suspended the next 3 games due to a DUI from this past summer. Harris appealed the suspension and was unsuccessful. This is a painful time to get hit with it as he has been establishing himself as the top target for New Orleans and their only genuine playmaker.

--With Harris suspended and Kenny Stills getting cut (finally), somebody is going to get some targets. My best guess is Tre'Quan Smith will be the “beneficiary” for what that's worth. Even as the default #1 WR though he's still probably a WR3-4 at best. If you're desperate that's where I'd go, but don't count on anything big happening here.

--Good news for Alvin Kamara owners, the RB should be back this week against the Jets. The Saints have been staying cautious with his knee injury, but he got in multiple limited practices last week and is expected to return this week. The Jets are a sweet spot to come back, and with Taysom's injury I think we can expect a good bit of Kamara including some nice ppr work.

--Oh no, Ezekiel Elliott (13-45-0, 2-2-0/3) only averaged 3.5 ypc again! The sky is falling! Tony Pollard (7-71-0, 2-3-0/4) is obviously so much better! Take out the one broken play where Pollard was nearly tackled for a loss but broke open on the edge for 58 yards, and he got 13 yards on his other 6 carries. The Saints simply have a very good run defense.

I'm holding fast in my stance from last week: there's nothing wrong with Zeke, nothing major anyways. Both backs were ineffective while Tyron Smith was out for a month, but now Smith is back, Zeke is still taking two thirds of the carries, and he won't be facing a very tough New Orleans run defense this week. Washington is no pushover certainly, their run defense has been trending up, but I'd say this is a middle of the pack matchup.

I think Zeke takes a good workload, 15-18 carries for a bit over 4 yards per carry, so maybe somewhere in the 65-80 yard range, with 3 or 4 catches and a good shot at a TD or two. It doesn't sound sexy, but those are solid numbers for fantasy. If he fails again here at Washington, then we might have a problem, but I really don't think that's the case.

Snap Counts of Interest

45 = Ezekiel Elliott

28 = Tony Pollard

48 = Marquez Callaway

47 = Tre'Quan Smith

36 = Ty Montgomery

30 = Lil'Jordan Humphrey

R.C. Fischer

FFM

08 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Lions 29, Vikings 27

It was bound to happen. The Lions are too good a bad team to not win a game. They should’ve won 3-4-5 games by now…they’ve been so close. They earned this win. They took a 20-6 lead into halftime, almost blew it (again), falling behind 27-23 with 1:50 remaining -- but a gritty/lucky last drive and 4th & goal with no time left…a TD and a win. Good for them.

Minnesota took this game for granted, had some bad turnovers to dig a hole early, but then roared back…only to lose on the very last play of the game. The Vikings were OK this game, just missing three key defenders then losing Adam Thielen right away – but still this came down to Detroit wanting it more, and the Lions being way better than their record showed.

Detroit can beat Atlanta Week 16 and get to two wins and a tie, which would potentially/likely throw Houston or Jacksonville back into the mix for the #1 pick in the draft. Detroit should tank the rest of the season for the #1 pick, but Dan Campbell believes strongly in moral victories (that players will forget about within 24 hours of any).

Minnesota butchers a chance to get to .500, instead falling to (5-7) and creeping closer to out of the playoffs and firing Mike Zimmer by season’s end. The playoffs are the only thing that can save Zimmer now…and I’m not sure that will either unless they make a run. The Vikings SHOULD get to 9 wins and have a wild card shot. Week 16 v. LAR is a must-win for the playoff run/tiebreaker holds or help. Minnesota has no real wild card tie breaking help wins this season to date.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- No Dalvin Cook here, which leads to these three Vikings’ RB notes…

1) When Alexander Mattison (22-90-1, 3-34-0/3) gets these no-Cook starts, I really cannot tell the difference in the offense with either starting. Minny doesn’t miss a beat, really. Cook is better, but for the NFL price…

As long as Mattison is starting without Cook, he’s an easy RB1 projection.

2) Dalvin Cook will not be back Week 14, more likely Week 15…but that’s not a sure thing either. He has some serious issues…and what if the Vikings lose this week and the season is about over?

Week 15 at CHI is not a desperate need for Cook to be back anyway. My guess is Cook will be active for emergency Week 15 – but return in full Week 16 v. LAR, since that game is basically the season.

3) Kene Nwangwu (2-0-0, 2-4-0/3) was much more involved, and better involved than I realized during the live watch. He was in taking touches on the 1st-series. He was taking touches and/or on the field most every series, at least for a snap during each series.

He didn’t do much with his touches, but note that he had a decent 5+ yard run called back on penalty, and he got a straight up handoff for a 2-point conversion…that got stuffed. Had this game opened up a bit more, I think Nwangwu would have seen 10+ touches. Had Nwangwu popped a little on one of the touches he got, he might have seen more touches.

Still is a sleeper hope Week 14, but it's a deep sleeper.

 -- MVP of this game for Minnesota, not named Justin Jefferson..? Tyler Conklin (7-56-0/9). That was the best game I’ve seen him play, as a receiver.

2nd most targets of any Vikings receiver in this game, with 9. Adam Thielen out early, and Conklin has his best targeting of his career. Well, if that’s a causal situation…Thielen will be out again Week 14. Could be another sweet week for Conklin.

Conklin did catch a TD in this game, but his second foot came down an inch out of bounds…or he would have really lit it up for FF.

 -- I’m all about K.J. Osborn (4-47-1/7) as a WR3 with upside Week 14 with Thielen out as well. KJO’s best targeting since Week 6.

Osborn played 92% of the snaps in this game. He normally plays 40-60%. He’s played two games in 2021 with 80%+ snap share…Weeks 14 and Week 1. His average outputs in those games:

5.5 rec. (8.0 targets), 61.5 yards, 0.50 TDs per game.

The Steelers are not a top defense in the NFL anymore, especially with Joe Haden out…which he is trending to be again this week – which is more good news for a KJO play.

Osborn is not just ‘meh’ who now has to play more…he’s a very solid WR, and decent for FF purposes. His first two weeks of the season to get a flavor of him with elevated targets: https://youtu.be/uawUINmvu_c

 -- I like what I see of Josh Reynolds (4-69-0/7) as well, speaking of WR3 upside plays for Week 14. He’s definitely Jared Goff’s preferred look among the WRs. Reynolds has nice movement skills and has good hands…he can be the de facto #1 WR for the Lions, and thus produces for FF.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (10-86-1/12) had a big game, but a good chunk of that in the hurry up with less than a minute to play. In the first 59 minutes of this game, Amon-Ra had 6 catches for 47 yards on 7 targets…his typical dull self. But then Goff started chopping down the field on underneath passes to prevent uncovered St. Brown and his numbers doubled in the final minute. On purpose, St. Brown is not a thing.

 -- Godwin Igwebuike (2-8-0, 1-13-0/2) was the better Lions backup RB over Jermar Jefferson (5-18-0, 0-0-0/1)…and Iggy was taking touches later in this game as part of the comeback effort. He just makes things happen. Had a big catch and run 1st-down to keep a drive going later in this game. He deserves more touches, but you can see by his stat line they aren’t really happening yet.

Kene Nwangwu got way better treatment as a #2 back in this game than Jefferson or Igwebuike.

 -- Blake Lynch (9 tackles, 2 sacks) had a decent game filling in for missing Barr-Kendricks…a key reason why the Vikings lost, no Barr, Kendricks, or Peterson…three of their best defenders. Lynch had a moment, but the moment is gone with all those guys back for Week 14. I didn’t detect anything special from the tape on Lynch, didn’t stand out to me…maybe I just missed it.

Snap Counts of Interest:

69 = St. Brown

60 = JReyn

35 = Kalif R.

34 = Jamaal W

28 = Igwebuike

08 = J Jefferson

70 = Osborn

69 = J Jefferson

32 =Westbrook

06 = Thielen

65 = Mattison

09 = Nwangwu…2 carries, 3 targets, one 2-point touch…on his 9 snaps. That’s a good sign. 

Ross Jacobs

FFM

07 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Chiefs 22, Broncos 9

The first two drives for Kansas City looked like business as usual. They drove right down the field and scored a TD and a FG for a quick 10-0 lead. And then things just kind of fizzled...the Chiefs would only score two more FG's on their own. Their last 9 points were off of turnovers by Denver.

I know most of FFM is as heavily invested in this offense as I am, and it's been hell watching Mahomes and company struggle to put up points for over a month now. We got the one great game against the Raiders and collectively assumed that all was right with the world. Turns out it's not.

So what's holding back the KC offense? The same thing that's been bothering them for the past month. Sketchy blocking, penalties, drops, a few inaccuracies from Mahomes, an underrated opponent, and teams playing deep coverage. A lot of these issues KC can fix themselves. The blocking and penalties for example. If they could just clean those up a bit the offense would seem more normal.

Drops have also been an issue, particularly by Tyreek Hill. Not trying to pick on one of the best receivers in the game, but he's been looking a lot like the 2020 version of Diontae Johnson in that department. Of course, this year DJ has barely dropped anything. It's very likely just a temporary issue or perhaps something Hill needs to address, but regardless it is holding the offense back at the moment. Drops kill drives, but even worse is when the ball goes off a receiver's hands straight to a defender. That's happened to Tyreek at least 4 times this year that I can remember. It's just bad luck unfortunately.

Let's also not forget that Denver is a pretty stingy defense. They are currently 3rd in the league in points allowed per game at 18.2 and 10th in passing yards per game. Fangio is the originator of the cover 4 scheme that's becoming more and more popular in the league this year due to the Rams success with it last year under Brandon Staley. The other two teams running this scheme are the Chargers (7th in pass yards per game) and Eagles (11th). Shockingly, if you drop a bunch of defenders it makes it much tougher for teams to throw. Rocket science I know.

In this game, the Chiefs essentially just abandoned the idea of throwing midway through the 3rd quarter. They weren't having much success and the defense was suffocating the Broncos, so they just began running and throwing short passes to the RB's.

So can the offensive issues be fixed? Perhaps. There's a variety of factors at play here, but I don't see any particular reason why they can't. The Raiders are a great place for KC to bounce back this week. When they met two weeks ago the Chiefs toyed with the Vegas defense to the tune of 41 points. After that the Chiefs get the Chargers, Steelers, Bengals, and Broncos again. No particularly easy defenses, but nothing too scary either. The Chargers are pretty good against the pass, but they can be beaten. Same goes for the Bengals. The worst matchup is the rematch with Denver but most fantasy seasons will be done by then.

I think we'll see a bit of a return to normal for KC the next month. Things may not be as high flying as they have been the past 3 years, but it shouldn't be the crapfest we've dealt with the last 4-5 weeks either.

The real story with the Chiefs is their defense. What looked like arguably the league's worst defense the first month of the season magically morphed into a top 10 unit basically overnight. Check out their last seven games of points allowed: 13, 27 (turnovers mostly responsible), 17, 7, 14, 9, 9. Now there's several bad offenses in that group, but they also shut down the Packers (albeit without Rodgers), the Cowboys, and Raiders. They are now 8th in the league in points allowed per game at 21.2!

Somehow most people still haven't caught on that the Chiefs defense is to be feared now. We still think of them as a joke because of the atrocious start to the season, but the reality is very different now.

If the Chiefs offensive struggles are mostly a fluke and the defense is actually a pretty good unit now, you have to take the Chiefs seriously as a Superbowl contender again. They are right in the mix with the Patriots and Bills. They should finish out the season 3-2 or 4-1 maybe which would give them 11 or 12 wins and a top 2 seed in the AFC.

The Broncos fall to 6-6 but still have life. They draw the lowly Lions next week which should get them to 7-6, then they finish out with the Bengals, Raiders, Chargers, and Chiefs. If they can somehow go 2-2 in that stretch it would get them to 9 wins with a shot at a wildcard spot. The two key games are against the Bengals and Chargers as those are two of the teams they'll be battling for the final playoff spots. Tiebreaks over them would go a long way towards getting in.

Ultimately, I don't think the Broncos will make it. They have a pretty good defense, but the offense is a mess. The big issue is their offensive line is atrocious and Bridgewater is being pressured on almost every play. Teddy is fine if he has time to throw, but muddy the pocket and he gets jittery and starts misfiring. My best guess is the Broncos only win 1 of those last 4 games and finish 8-9 just out of the playoffs.

Fantasy Notes

--Everyone and their grandmother was predicting a big game for Javonte Williams (23-102-0, 6-76-1/9) and boy did he deliver. It's been painfully obvious all year that Javonte is by far the best rookie RB and already one of the best in the entire league. This should have been the final straw to give him the starting job, but this never works out with NFL coaches. You can take it to the bank that as soon as Melvin Gordon can go he'll be back out there as the lead guy in a 60-40 split.

Just to give some context on how good Javonte is: RC and I were texting during the game and we both feel that he is performing better than any RB we've seen all year except Derrick Henry. That includes Jonathan Taylor. Now we're not saying Javonte will necessarily be a better fantasy producer than Taylor at any point in his career. We're simply saying he has the potential to do so. Taylor is a great RB no doubt, one of the best in the league, but his fantasy success has just as much to do with his situation (a great o-line, weak opponents, and tons of carries) as his talent.

Will Javonte ever get those factors working for him? Maybe, maybe not. He certainly doesn't have the line right now. But if he ever does watch out because he's as good as any back in the league. He'll be a top 4 pick in 2022 redrafts I can almost guarantee.

*RC NOTE: I AM saying Javonte will be better than Jonathan Taylor (no slam on JT). I’ll go out there on that limb. I’ve been on that limb for a few months...impatiently waiting. It took about a season+ for Frank Reich to get it through his thick skull. Fangio probably the same, or new coach/pal of Aaron Rodgers next year will get it. 

--If you haven't already bailed on Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant, it's time to do so. Both are great players, fantastic talents that are being underutilized. This goes back to talking about situation like with Javonte. Right now Teddy has no time to throw and so he is forced to take the short, safe throws to Jeudy and the TE's instead of looking for Sutton down the field. If he could ever get time for Sutton to beat 1-on-1 coverage outside, we might have something, but I don't see any cupcakes on the schedule for that to work against. It's the exact same issue that Claypool is dealing with in Pittsburgh. Both guys are a random play each week where you hope they connect on that one deep ball to make the day.

--Fant's situation is much the same. Great player but Teddy is splitting targets evenly between Fant and Okwuegbunam. Smart for real football. Sucks for fantasy. And of course, Okwuegbunam is a good TE in his own right. He deserves a starting spot too. But until one of these guys moves on I have no interest in either for fantasy.

--I've already said my piece on Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce. I believe they will all bounce back somewhat over the last month. That's the core of the KC offense. Nothing is wrong with them per se. They still know how to play football. The points will come, just maybe not at the insane rates we expected when we drafted them this year.

*RC NOTE: We will discuss the Mahomes-Tyreek dilemma more on the Video Q&A tonight. No, Tyreek is not killing you -- he’s the #5 PPR PPG WR in Fantasy a blink from #3. Mahomes is more of an issue, we’ll discuss more throughout the week. 

--The one KC player I haven't addressed yet is Clyde Edwards Helaire (14-54-0, 3-28-0/3). As expected he came right back to a solid lead position over Darrel Williams. What I didn't necessarily expect was that while Williams lost most of the run game work, he retained a decent chunk of the passing work at RB. That, plus the lack of scoring opportunities for the offense in general, has held Helaire back from making the jump into RB1 scoring that I thought might happen.

The good news is that Helaire has his normal workload back and is getting a decent amount of catches again. He's a safe RB2 for the moment as KC continues to rely on the short game as teams try to take away the deep ball. If they can reconfigure the offense in some manner to regain their explosiveness and start scoring closer to 30 ppg again, Helaire is a decent bet to get a piece of that and possibly propel him into back end RB1 territory. It's pure speculation though. I haven't seen any evidence that is happening yet. For now he's the same RB2 he's been for two years now.

*RC NOTE: For me, CEH and Mecole Hardman have been trying to tell you who they are in this KC situation for two seasons now. We all keep fighting it, and wanting to believe in fairy tales. We have to reprogram ourselves a touch on ‘everything KC is fantastic’. Tyreek and Kelce are...not Josh Gordon and not CEH. Kareem Hunt, the backup RB for the Browns, is a better FF RB than CEH week-to-week. Old Hunt memories also haunt CEH, because we keep (and I did as well when CEH was drafted) thinking ‘if Hunt was that good with KC, then certainly CEH will be great!’ 

There’s a reason why the Chiefs Vegas line is always inflated. The Chiefs are 12-16 ATS/against the spread the past two regular seasons...because our minds are programmed to believe KC is something they are not. They aren’t bad...just our ‘feeling’ on them is corrupt...and it bleeds into our FF analysis. 

Snap Counts of Interest

29 = Clyde Edwards-Helaire

26 = Darrel Williams

60 = Javonte Williams

17 = Mike Boone

68 = Courtland Sutton

67 = Tim Patrick

56 = Jerry Jeudy

14 = Kendall Hinton

R.C. Fischer

FFM

07 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 13: Steelers 20, Ravens 19

Everything you wanted to know about these two teams happened on the first drive for each…

Baltimore moved the ball right down the field on their opening drive, and then they got down into the red zone and Lamar Jackson threw a ridiculous interception…another ridiculous one…8 TDs/10 INTs his last six games, but the media will not say ‘boo’ about it. Lamar is probably the most protected by the media QB in the NFL, for reasons I cannot comprehend. Strike that, LJax is #2. Matt Stafford is #1. Sam Darnold is #3 tied with Jameis Winston.

Pittsburgh’s turn for their first drive. Najee run for 5 yards. Najee run for 4 yards. 3rd & 1, Najee run for -1-yard, punt. The typical Steelers offense: ineffective Najee on the ground, especially on a short yardage conversion need, all happening on your TV screen while the game analysts/announcers coo about how great Najee’s rookie season has been and that he’s going to be an elite RB for a long time in this league…as he slams his way towards another under 3.50 yards per rush game with a lot of carries and less than 70-75 yards rushing each game and likely with no TDs.

Lamar turnovers and Najee ineffectiveness are the hallmark of these two teams' 2021 seasons on offense.

Everything you want to know about football fans and the football media happened on the last play of the game…

The Ravens ran a 2+ minute final drive, down 7, for a TD with seconds remaining. Ravens now down 20-19, and they decide to ‘go for two’…a gutsy call to go for the win/loss.

Whenever a team ‘goes for it’, like this, if they convert…the coach is hailed as a genius, a tough as nails believer in his men and master of analytics.

Whenever a team ‘goes for it’, like this, and they fail to convert…the coach is an idiot, and WE (the critics/fans) would NEVER go for it there for XYZ football reasons. And THIS is the reason why coaches aren’t more daring, and why GMs don’t make trades – football fans are insufferable, constantly pointing out the after-the-fact way it should’ve gone (when the thing failed).

Before we get too uppity…FF players do the same thing. Those that are out of the playoffs right now, and those that ultimately don’t make it, or those that do and lose first-round of the playoffs, will eventually/immediately go into a whole next year game plan on how they are never going to do ____ (thing that didn’t work) again and they are definitely going to do ____ (thing that in retrospect did work that season).

On that vibe, looking back the past six seasons, the NFL MVP from each season…was an FF disappointment or total FF-flop the following year. We see a lot of ‘was amazing for a season’ events that we then chase for the reversal. Michael Thomas after that wow 2019 season…Christian McCaffrey after that wow 2019 season. Alvin Kamara was the top PPR back last year, injured/disappointment this year. Devante Adams scored 18 TDs last season, and no one could stop his TD rampage…he has 5 TDs this season.

It’s not as easy going back through in December and lamenting the players you should’ve taken in August redrafts. It’s always the perfect plan when your mind races to beat yourself up by not only constantly reminding yourself of your FF-mistakes, but then daydreaming up the perfect alternatives that could’ve happened to double-down on the pain…you coulda had the perfect draft, but you didn’t. A perfect draft would be like hitting the lottery – assembling all the top scorers for one particular season and none of them get hurt and/or didn’t have their QB get hurt to affect their outputs, etc., is a pipe dream.

We are going to make bad trades (sometimes we acquire the player about to tear their ACL or chased a hot player who suddenly went cold). We are going to pick ‘A’ redraft pick or waiver option (for logical reasons at the time), when ‘B’ wound up the right option in retrospect. We double remember every bad move, and instantly forget/discount every good move.

I can’t tell you how many people in Nov.-Dec. 2021 have lamented to me about “I should have never picked or traded for _____. I’ll never do that again.” Looking at their lineup, I’ll then point out that grabbing Cordarrelle Patterson was a good move by them, and they’ll retort…”Yeah, but that was total luck. That's one in a million.”

Football fans, Fantasy owners…the real battle is not fully in scouting and studying, it’s a battle for your mind that’s always chasing fairy tales and trying to chase away nightmares, but you vividly remember ALL the bad (and inflate it) and never remember or credit any of the good. You’ve never won a Fantasy week in your life that wasn’t luck, but all your losses are because of XYZ mistake you made (listening to me, listening to ESPN, flipping a coin, going with your gut).

Where was I?

Oh, don’t be afraid to 'go for it' chasing wins in the NFL or FF…because you’re worried that you’ll lose a game/a showdown/a playoff/a season…fearing all the criticism, from your own mind (in Fantasy) from the fans/media (in the NFL). I realize 95-99% of the people who read that last sentence will not be swayed. Fantasy loves misery and lamenting in reflecting on the past...especially whatever just happened last week. I keep giving this message over and over, hoping it eventually sinks in to the few. Not because I’m some genius…I just have 10+ years and million Fantasy conversations and actual game play in this arena to have it beaten into my head.

To bring it all home…the most complaints, the most proclamations about ‘Next year…’, come from Fantasy owners who have winning records today and are headed to the playoffs. Teams out of it today, they are happily put out of their misery – no more weekly anxiety, now they can get to their favorite mode…hyper/microanalysis of the prior season and 9 months of planning where there are no games and where there is no more losing. Teams still in it – have all week to worry about losing and their season ending now. Praying to win but expecting to lose.

The Fantasy battle is a battle for the mind as much as it is scouting/lineup strategy.

The next few Fantasy weeks – it’s time to win or die trying. It’s not time to try and not-lose. It’s time to go for wins. It’s do-or-die season now.

Baltimore loses a game they could’ve won, but they played equally as bad/sloppy/sluggish as the Steelers and failed the 2-point conversion and lost to fall to (8-4). This Ravens team is so bad for a ‘top’ AFC team. They are a .500 or less team that has gotten VERY lucky this season. Losing Marlon Humphrey is more bad news for their playoff hopes. If Baltimore loses to Cleveland Week 14, it’s possible they lose their next 4 games, or three of 4 (CLE, GB, CIN, LAR) and are scrambling for a wild card in the end…but this AFC North is so bad that 10 wins might win it, and the Ravens are closest to getting to the 10 wins. Beat CLE Week 14, and they’re pretty golden.

The Steelers are now (6-5-1), the worst team with a winning record in the NFL. They have a chance to lose out (MIN-TEN-KC-CLE-BAL). At a minimum, it will be very hard for them to get to 9 wins, which is where the wild card will likely be low-end.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Diontae Johnson (8-105-2/11) was a Fantasy MVP for some of us this week. I thought this was going to be a tough matchup (BAL has a history of shutting off Diontae), but I didn’t fully realize the Ravens get amnesia week-to-week in 2021.

Remember Week 1 when Darren Waller caught a billion passes on the Ravens and Baltimore would never adjust, then did adjust some in the 2nd-half with double teams, then stopped doing it (again) and then Waller went back to burning them for a Raiders win? Well, somehow Diontae was not being covered by Marlon Humphrey here…their best corner. Diontae kept getting nice single coverage from #2/#3 CBs, and despite the fact that DJ is the guy who is the only one to stop/worry about on the Steelers, because that’s where Ben throws it all the time, the Ravens never adjusted, and Humphrey made sure the very dangerous James Washington (0-0-0/1) was locked down. Well, mission accomplished…and a loss.

Diontae is pushing towards the season-long top 3 PPR scoring per game WR in Fantasy.

 -- Chase Claypool (3-52-0/3) is nothing but a WR3-4 flyer. He has 1 receiving TD this season…that’s how poorly run this passing game is.

He has 2 receiving TDs in his last 16 regular season games. Absolutely pathetic. A waste of one of the great WR talents in the game.

 -- Pat Freiermuth (3-26-0/4) got good looks early in the game, and then kinda disappeared during the Diontae show. Nothing seems wrong, just wasn’t his kinda FF game flow.

 -- Lamar Jackson (23-37 for 253 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 8-55-0) has played 11 games this season and in 9 of those games he’s had exactly 1 TD pass…9 TDs/11 INTs.

He has not rushed for a TD since Week 2…10 of 11 games with no rushing TDs.

Lamar is becoming a QB2 right before our eyes…with QB1 blip upside hopes any given week. Remember when he was the future of football and Fantasy after 2019?

 -- The Ravens backfield is all Devonta Freeman (14-52-1, 5-45-0/8) now. How that’s possible, I do not know. Latavius Murray 2-1-0, 2-34-0/2) took all of two carries here.

Ty’Son Williams was inactive, and Nate McCrary (1-0-0) was promoted…and McCrary looks like he’s running into a 100mph wind gust.

It’s stunning to behold how awful this backfield is. For FF purposes, it’s Freeman only these days.

 -- Rashod Bateman (0-0-0/1) is a victim of Lamar Jackson. Nice WR, in the wrong place at the wrong time.

 -- The Ravens-DST was already about useless for FF but losing Marlon Humphrey should mean open season even more on the Ravens defense by opposing offenses. They are not that viable a DST against CLE Week 14…and then GB-CIN-LAR Weeks 15-17, no thanks. 

Rodgers-Burrow-Stafford benefit ahead from this Ravens downturn coming.

 -- The Steelers-DST played one of their best games of the year. Not good enough a unit to make me want to play them vs. Minnesota, at MIN Week 14…but Week 15 v. TEN is a possibility. Week 16 at KC is probably not, but these days with KC…who knows?

Snap Counts of Interest:

57 = Diontae

40 = Ray-Ray

38 = Claypool

22 = Washington

51 = Devonta

14 = Latavius

02 = McCrary

64 = Marquise

44 = Duvernay

34 =Watkins

33 = Bateman

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

06 December 2021

A look back at the Chargers 2021 season via RC's weekly game recaps/analysis with 2022 notes/comments added to this review...

Ross Jacobs

FFM

05 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Washington 17, Seahawks 15 

Weird game. Seattle was the first team to score a TD to take a 7-3 lead, but Washington would respond shortly before the half. Instead of taking a 10-3 lead however, Seattle blocked the extra point attempt and returned it for a 2-point conversion to give us a 9-9 tie.

After the half it was all Washington until the final minutes when Seattle would fail a conversion to tie the game, then the onside kick attempt was overturned after it appeared that the Seahawks had recovered it.

Washington has now won 3 in a row to get to 5-6 with some hope still alive to take down Dallas for the division. They have 5 divisional games left including two with Dallas, so things are still very much up in the air. I'm guessing they don't have enough firepower to beat Dallas out, but it's a scrappy offense and the defense has been improving the past few weeks. They've held their last 3 opponents to a combined 55 points (18.3 ppg). If they can keep that up they might have a chance.

This loss drops Seattle to 3-8 and their season is over. It was over from the moment Wilson injured his finger. So how does Pete Carroll respond? By signing Adrian Peterson to quote “help them win now.” Somebody needs to explain the situation to Pete I guess.

One of two things is going to happen in Seattle this off-season. Either Carroll is fired or Wilson leaves in free agency. My guess is Carroll is fired. That's the easier, more digestible move for PR. But if they trade Russell and then go on a losing streak for a few years with Pete it's going to get the entire front office fired. They can't afford that. If the situation can be salvaged with Russell it will be. They'll give him near full control to bring in whatever coach or players he wants. Prepare for a bumpy off-season Seahawks fans.

Fantasy Notes

--Damn you RC. You talked me into trading Antonio Gibson (29-111-0, 7-35-0/7) a few weeks ago right before Washington decided to recommit to making Gibson their version of McCaffrey. I can't say I honestly blame you though. Up until that point all the signs were that Gibson was being phased out, he might be shut down..etc. And then magically he starts getting 20+ touches a game. You can't plan for wild swings like that.

Unless something changes I don't foresee this slowing down. This is the kind of work I was hoping for when I drafted Gibson. He's the discount version of McCaffrey or Taylor right now. All the workload but with a bad offensive line and offense so he's not very efficient or scoring much. When he does though it's going to be sweet. Gibson very well might win some leagues on this final stretch of 6 games.

*RC NOTE: Damn me, too…

I take full responsibility. Isn’t that what high-profile people guilty of something say to appease everyone? Can I say, “It’s not who I am?” Would that work? No? It’s OK, I’m not sorry...I mean, I’m sorry this didn’t work out (like people caught in stuff are sorry...yeah, they’re sorry they got caught) but I’m not sorry for making the move for what I believed to be coming. 

I thought Washington was dead three weeks ago, no way they ever get back in the playoff race, they just lost Chase Young, one more loss likely would have prompted a further Gibson shutdown and then possible full shutdown to get his fractured shin healed -- instead they beat Tampa Bay, returning Cam/Carolina, and then returning Russ/Seattle. I didn't think they’d win more than a game in this stretch, instead they mowed it all down (kinda, could’ve lost the last two). 

I played the Gibson card betting against Washington ever in the playoff hunt. They did the opposite, and now I’m burned by Gibson moves I made just ahead of a quasi-breakout. Rewind the universe back to Week 9, their bye week before the Tampa game, let’s play these games all over again -- I’d bet against Washington and Gibson all over again. 

Sometimes you hit on ‘12’ and draw a face card. 

--Logan Thomas (3-31-0/6) is back and right back into his old role. By now a lot of people will have forgotten about him so he might be available on waivers if you need a TE. Thomas is as good a shot as any. I like his volume and situation to be a top 3-5 TE the rest of the schedule.

--Curtis Samuel returned too but wasn't thrown right back into his #2 role immediately. It was likely just an attempt to ease him back into things. Look for his role to grow the next few weeks. Don't think he's redraft usable yet, but we might look up in 2-3 weeks and he's a WR2.5-3 option especially if the staff starts to give him some carries with McKissic out.

--There was a lot of ink spilled after this game about the Seahawks not getting the ball to DK Metcalf (1-13-0/4) more and quite frankly it's justified. There is no excuse for not throwing a pass to your best player for an entire half and only 4 for the entire game. DK is one of the most physically dominant players in the entire league. Manufacture something. Throw him a screen. It's really not hard. After the outcry here I would expect a big game coming for Metcalf against the 49'ers this week.

--It should go without saying, but please do not pick up Adrian Peterson. He got cut from Tennessee for a reason. There's nothing left. And he's certainly not walking into the worst offensive line situation in the league and making it better. There's no hope for any RB behind this sad excuse for a line. Alex Collins is done now too if that wasn't obvious.

--I hear lots of consternation about Russell Wilson (20-31 for 247 yards, 2 TD/0 INT) right now, but I don't see much wrong with him. He overthrows the occasional ball high now, likely a lingering effect of the finger injury, but the biggest issue is the line isn't giving him any time to throw. That isn't getting fixed anytime soon. Wouldn't be surprised if we see Russell take off in fantasy over the last few weeks though as the coaching staff unleashes him to throw every play in a desperate attempt to save their jobs. Watch.

*RC NOTE: Our internal metrics have only the Denver Broncos as a worse pass protection O-Line than Seattle. This Russ ‘issue’ and DKM target problem -- it may not get fixed until they play a weak pass rush/secondary combo...and that doesn't happen until Weeks 16-17 (CHI-DET).

Snap Counts of Interest

28 = DeeJay Dallas

19 = Alex Collins

66 = Logan Thomas

48 = John Bates

57 = Antonio Gibson

33 = JD McKissic

3 = Jaret Patterson

76 = Terry McLaurin

61 = DeAndre Carter

32 = Adam Humphries

20 = Curtis Samuel

R.C. Fischer

FFM

04 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Packers 36, Rams 28

I’m not sure that I’m processing this game properly. The Packers won…they pretty much led the whole game. The Packers looked like the superior team, but then the Rams were just hanging around in this game constantly. The Rams gave the Packers 3 turnovers, and they were key…and yet the Packers never really put this game away. Again, my eyes were very much ‘the Packers were better’…but I may be wishing losses on the Rams so hard that I had green- and gold-colored glasses on for the rewatch/study.

40-to-20 minute time of possession Packers.

3-to-1 turnover edge for the Packers.

38% on 3rd/4th-downs Packers, 27% Rams

399-to-353 total yards for the Packers.

4-to-3 Penalties called against…Pack with the 3.

21-to-15 first downs, Packers.

Everything favored the Packers, but it was still a game, kinda, Rams chasing late into the 4th-quarter.

In the end, the Rams lose…and that makes my heart happy because I’m nauseous of the public make out session Menage a trois 2021 between McVay, Stafford, and the ‘likes to watch’ football media. Then adding OBJ into this is such a ridiculous, clueless move – I hope the Rams choke on all of it, if not for anything more than the way McVay privately and publicly treated Jared Goff.

In their last three games, the Lions have more wins than the Rams…a half a win/tie.

The Rams have lost three-in-a-row to fall to (7-4). I pray to the football gods to somehow not let the Rams into the playoffs. I just want blabbermouth McVay to feel the pain of being treated like his ___ don’t stink. He can take his fake Chunky Soup eating ass back down to Cabo this winter and mud wrestle Kyle Shanahan to be the one to acquire the services of Aaron Rodgers. We project the Rams with 9-10 wins and a likely wild card, sadly.

Green Bay jumps to (9-3), and they have the inside track at an NFC #1 seed (already beating Arizona). They are set up to run the table from here with a favorable schedule but will probably stumble on one of them. 13 wins minimum (unless Rodgers goes down).

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Well, the Matt Stafford (21-38 for 302 yards, 3 TDs/1 INT) for MVP bandwagon broke off a tire, veered off into a convenient store gas pump, and ignited upon impact…over the past three games. 5 TDs/5 INTs, three pick-sixes, three losses.

I shouldn’t paint a picture of such despair…because the Rams will go out and beat the Jags this week, and the media’s favorite son QB (besides Lamar) will be declared ‘all fixed’ and thus Stafford is still a top MVP candidate.

Stafford’s new downfall is OBJ (5-81-1/10)…you knew he was gonna force it to him, and you knew OBJ would drop passes, not finish routes, never catch the ball in traffic, and generally not be on the same page as Stafford because they’re just now playing together – but Stafford and McVay…McStafford…are so smart that they took the sucker’s bet and dove right in heavy with OBJ and problems will ensue.

The Browns were never better then when OBJ was out, and never worse when OBJ was in…but the Rams are smarter than everyone and Sean McVay is trying to con me that bad canned soup is a healthy meal. So, he will show you who is smart at football.

I don’t know how long it will take before the Rams back down on the OBJ hype/targeting, but it’s not yet.

And for some reason, defenses are double teaming him which is an even bigger travesty…but even worse is Stafford trying to force into a double team. OBJ can’t handle no-team, no-player coverage. He’s not going to be a star with double teams.

OBJ got loose for a bomb TD when this game was about out of hand, and that kinda pulled the Rams back into the game for a moment. Nothing special on the play, but Stafford put on him for the score. This will keep them joined together for at least 2-3 more weeks.

 -- Two things about Darrell Henderson (16-55-0, 4-18-1/4)…

1) He looks like he’s stuck in mud as a runner now. He’s not a 4.3s runner, as his Pro Day made us all think. He may be hurt/have a secret injury holding him back but he looks like he’d rather be doing 100 other things than carrying a football…watching this tape. Very uninspired, sluggish running.

I think Henderson is starting to bring a Sony Michel (3-14-0, 1-11-0/1) split or takeover into view, if he doesn’t step it up. Not that Michel looks any more electric…but McVay has to be panicking off this three-game slide…willing to mix things up if a hot hand appears.

2) DH is banged up from the game…thigh injury. The door may really open for a Michel takeover if he gets a full starting shot Week 13 and does well. Going to be hard to dismiss him for the bad tape Henderson is putting up.

 -- Aaron Jones (10-23-0, 0-0-0/1) looked fine/healed here. A semi-surprising active but he didn’t do much. The Rams seemed committed to stopping the run, which they did…great…Aaron Rodgers only put 36 points on you in a loss anyway, but you didn’t stop being bad against the run for a game, so mission accomplished…I guess. Nice!!

 -- I usually shrug off Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4-50-0/9) TD/blip weeks, because they usually happen as a blip and then there is no follow up.

Week 11, 100+ yards and a TD and everyone piling back in.

Week 12/this game, MVS didn’t light up the FF stat sheet here for a follow-up, which is typical…BUT…this time might be different. He almost had a TD (Rodgers overthrow)…which would have been a nice follow up from last week because the last two games: 9 targets this game, 10 targets the game prior.

MVS nearly had a TD in this game and one other long play shot…Rodgers’ fault, not MVS. And if they had connected on one of the near-misses, there is NO WAY anyone would have dropped him for FF, and he’d be in starting lineups next week/Week 14. One slight overthrow has changed the MVS narrative.

What I’ve seen of the MVS targeting -- is an improved more purposed targeting with an opponent’s emphasis on Davante Adams to give MVS lesser coverage. I am getting all-in fever on MVS, for the price, to try and ride this wave that could crash but this wave is nice right now…especially where I’ve lost Deebo for a while.

If you can snatch MVS for a song during this bye week and a meh Week 12…I’d do it. A smart add for your title runs or trying to hustle into the playoffs.

Heck, he’s on waivers in some redrafts – the bye week and injuries forcing him to get coughed up for a roster space, and he is not in view of the ‘by scoring’ Week 13 rank because he’s on a bye…so, do a search for him if you want. He’s a WR2 potential lethal add for the stretch run…a homerun hitter.

I like the MVS target and general on-tape look better than this Randall Cobb (4-93-1/5) moment.

 -- Jalen Ramsey (6 tackles) was barely covering Davante Adams in this game, which is insane. The Packers would get near the goal line and Adams would be lined up on one side/outside and Ramsey would be at linebacker on the other side. Next end zone play, Adams would switch to the otherwise…Ramsey would switch to the opposite side.

I cannot believe football analysts are still talking about Ramsey shutting down ___WR in a matchup. It is not true in 2021.

Here’s all you need to know about Jalen Ramsey 2021, I’ll represent it in a two-man play that I’ve penned…

McVay: Big game this week, Jalen. We’re facing the great Davante Adams. You know how much Rodgers loves to throw it to him. I’m gonna need you to shut him down this week!

Ramsey: I’m an outside linebacker.

McVay: I know you’ve worked there a lot this season…but this game we really need you to take away Davante for our best shot to win this huge game.

Ramsey: I’m an outside linebacker.

McVay: I know we’ve let you play there, and you’ve been good…but you’re the best cover corner in the game and we’re facing the top WR in football. We traded a ton for you and pay you a lot of money to be that stud…we kinda need you on Davante.

Ramsey: I’m an outside linebacker.

McVay: Could I tempt you with some Chunky soup?

Ramsey: I’m an outside linebacker.

McVay: OK, no problem…I’m going to go back to the office and make out with Matt Stafford some more. Check ya later. Hopefully, we don’t lose to the Packers as Adams catches 8 passes for 104 yards on 9 targets against us.

Ramsey: I’m an outside linebacker.

-end scene-

 -- Rasul Douglas (6 tackles, 1 INT TD) is more of a shutdown corner in 2021 than Jalen Ramsey is. Douglas has been fantastic this year. A Pro Bowl level year.

Just so you know how great NFL head coaches and D-Cs are at evaluating talent they possess, here’s Douglas’s NFL journey so far:

OCT 7 2021 = Signed to the active roster by Green Bay

SEP 2 2021 = Signed to the practice squad by Arizona

AUG 30 2021 = Released by Houston

AUG 24 2021 = Signed a contract with Houston

AUG 23 2021 = Released by Las Vegas

APR 19 2021 = Signed a 1 year $990,000 contract with Las Vegas

SEP 6 2020 = Claimed off waivers by Carolina

SEP 5 2020 = Waived by Philadelphia

MAY 11 2017 = Signed a 4 year $3.17 million contract with Philadelphia (PHI)

Snap Counts of Interest:

42 = Dillon

40 = A Jones

35 = Deguara

33 = M Lewis

20 = Dafney

50 = DHenderson

12 = Michel

62 = Kupp

61 = Van J

61 = OBJ

R.C. Fischer

FFM

03 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Dolphins 33, Panthers 10

Wow, talk about a team playing with little-to-no energy… What is Matt Rhule doing? I thought he was a rally-the-troops kinda head man? It may be that his schtick works better with young people in college. I’m not just taking potshots while he’s down. I bet he’s thinking that too…a lot of college-to-pro head coaches fight that. They get bored in college, to a degree…at the same time the media is hyping them up and billionaires are flying them in on private jets to wine and dine them and offer him millions – it’s all pretty alluring. It’s wonderful being ‘pursued’.

If you’re smart, as a an in-demand college head coach, you leave college for a spell…when you want to change out of your current gig/school, and you take a five-year monster deal to go to the pros…realizing you’ll likely be fired by year 3-4, but you’ll be paid handsomely to go away, and then you can go instantly from failed pro coach to become the hottest free agent coach going back to the college ranks…your ego getting massaged all over again as you abandon the criticism of the pros to go back the warm embrace of the college paying you to come over. I don’t fault the coaches for it. I’d like to ride that train.

One of the stops that his train makes is – being hated by the media at some point in your pro career, and so will the fans hate you for not going undefeated every week, month, season…and these coaches who are always the belle of the ball have not faced that, ever, in their meteoric careers. Rhule has walked on water coaching in college.

I imagine Rhule is thinking he’ll give it one more shot in 2022, not wanting to be a quitter, per se…take 2023 off, potentially, take a breather, then sign a mega-deal in 2024. Which means there will be no long-term vision for the Panthers…it will be all about 2022 for Rhule. All-in, one hail mary flailing away shot.

Rhule has done this to himself – terrible QB choices/plans/concepts since he walked into the building. One of the worst O-Lines in the league (we have internally graded it as one of the three worst pass blocking units in 2021). A big contract to a small running back. A big contract extension to mediocre Robby Anderson.

Rhule has done about everything wrong a head coach could do/advise to do/signed off to do, personnel-wise, in his first two seasons. Even his smart deals for CBs C.J. Henderson and Stephon Gillmore – they’ve had little impact, and the hidden kicker about those CB deals is -- he cut corner Rasul Douglas prior to all this to make room for his CB collection. Douglas is currently playing all-pro ball for Green Bay right now.

Rhule is on the ropes, and his team played in this game like they’ve all moved on. Rhule seems to have no impact with his players. At least not an impact befitting him as one of the highest paid coaches in the league. Egotistical (with good reason) NFL head coaches who are used to nothing but fawn fests from the media and the fans (from their college coaching days)…they won’t suffer this well. Rhule has shown no NFL talent assessment ability to solve his problem…his roster is only getting worse. The outlook here is grave…but Rhule will get paid a lot to leave, eventually, and then get a monster contract from about any big college that has an opening. He’ll be fine. Panthers fans will be picking up the pieces for years trying to fix this mess. Rhule probably would figure things out and be better if he hangs around for 7-10 years but likely he bolts in 2022-2023 and just leaves the kitchen a mess for the next occupants to clean up.

This game…

The Panthers gave up 11 QB hits, 5 sacks, 7 TFLs…completed 10-of-31 passes and had so many drops I stopped counting. This was one of the worst performances by a fairly talented NFL team of 2021. It’s only getting worse, not better, with Rhule. Miami wasn’t great as much as Carolina tanked.

Carolina is (5-7) and likely on their way to 6 wins, 7 wins tops. Week 14 v. ATL is a battle of two of the worst teams in the NFL. Why is it when Tom Brady plays in a division, the other three teams in that division become the 3 worst teams in football?

Miami didn’t do anything special besides play sound football but more just let Carolina implode. Miami has had the good fortune of playing HOU, NYJ, CAR in their 4-game win streak. They have NYG and NYJ next. They’re trying to kill my win total ‘under’ bet. They are (5-7) and I think they hit 7 wins tops and stay ‘under’…I pray. Miami is getting by on an easy schedule more than anything.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- It’s 2021…

Last week, I won games with D’Onta Foreman and Cordarrelle Patterson leading the way.

I had to seriously consider Laquon Treadwell off waivers to use this week in deep roster leagues.

The consensus top 5 redraft picks for 2021 are all gone and/or hurt and/or useless and/or major disappointments as we sit in Week 13.

It’s been a bizarre season…which is why Fantasy Football is so engaging, so fluid.

So, when I slip in this following comment it should come as no surprise in the UpsideDownWorld of Fantasy 2021: I’m really enjoying Tua Tagovailoa’s (27-31 for 230 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) work right now.

…I’m enjoying watching it. I don’t want it for my FF teams. I don’t want it long term in Dynasty. But I am fascinated by what’s happening with Tua. He’s running an offense I’ve never really seen before. It’s like a combination of the West Coast Offense on an overdose of amphetamines mixed with Tua as Penny Hardaway distributing passes, dropping dimes to all the right players quickly, efficiently. https://youtu.be/GFACsK9lQ68

Tua is virtually unstoppable in games of late. He throws passes in a blink…all within 0-5 yards of the line of scrimmage usually. And when the defense tries to guess who he’s throwing to, he quick changes to another option. I have never seen an offense like this and I’m not sure it is by design, more it’s what Tua can do, he’s limited otherwise…he’s taken his limitations and runaway from them, instead playing to what he is good at, and it’s working.

The last two games, Tua has completed 54-of-64 passes (84.4%)...above 80%+ both games. He’s at 70.5% Comp. Pct. overall for the season.

Honestly, it’s a joy to watch…it’s refreshing. It’s different. I’m not sure it will last because good+ defenses are not fooled, but bad defenses appear to have no answer right now.

Tua splits 2021:

46-of-83 (55.4%), 1 TD/2 INTs = Tua v. BUF 2x, NE, BAL

119-of-151 (78.8%), 9 TDs/4 INTs = Tua v. JAX, ATL, NYJ, CAR

The Giants defense will be a big test for him Week 13, because Tua is getting slicker and slicker in this offense, but the Giants mimic more of the Bills defense and then some. If Tua blows through NYG, then I’m going to believe this Miami team could be headed to the playoffs.

Only one QB has a lower depth of target/intended air yards per pass attempt than Tua, and that’s Jared Goff. For everyone who thinks they’re super smart quoting air yard targets for QBs and WRs as mic drop debate enders or thinking you;ve found FF scouting gold, (a) you’re wasting your time thinking it is some kind of talent metrics, it isn’t, and (b) Tua is breaking the mold of what we think QB play, and downfield throwing must be. He’s literally slicing NFL defenses right now with the ‘death by a thousand paper cuts’ offense, or my trademarked ‘BTO’ (Baby Throw Offense). They know it’s coming, and they can’t seem to stop it…it’s simplicity is it’s complication and Tua is running it like a robot magician.

Most NFL teams would keep forcing Tua to play ‘real QB’ and take deep drops and throw the passes the playbook says. Credit Miami, they’ve ditched that…or Tua just does what he wants…and they’re playing ‘their own way’.

The NFL might figure this out quickly and then Tua is doomed because he can’t play any other style, but baby it is working now. You can’t target him with your DST for FF because he’s getting rid of the ball so fast, so efficient and quick you can’t sack him or get picks off him like you used to.

 -- On the other side of the field, was the opposite of Tua…heavily sacked, typical drop back passing with bad drop back passers. The Panthers QBs combined for 32.2% completed passes in this game. Cam Newton (5-21 for 92 yards, 0 TDs/2 INT) was benched and P.J. Walker (5-10 for 87 yards, 0 TD/1 INT) came in for garbage time.

Is there a QB controversy? I dunno. Your choices between these two QBs is death by being thrown into a pit of Cobras or death by being thrown into a Lion’s Den. These two QBs are awful, but we also have to acknowledge how bad the Carolina O-Line is and how awful their WRs are. Cam was under constant assault just trying to get passes off.

Matt Rhule will jet off to a big college gig in a year and take all his guaranteed money with him…while he ruined O-C Joe Brady’s career. The answer to whether it was Ed Orgeron or Joe Brady who made LSU in their title season…the answer is Joe Burrow.

You no longer blindly target Tua/Miami with your DST…but you DEFINITELY target Carolina’s offense.

 -- Making Carolina’s offensive outlook worse is the loss of Christian McCaffrey (10-35-0, 0-0-0/1). Again, Matt Rhule decides to build everything around one smaller RB and does nothing to ensure he has a great Plan B running back that’s similar behind him. That’s a Matt Rhule problem/mistake. No different than Mike Vrabel having Jeremy McNichols as his #2 RB behind Derrick Henry. How could people be so stupid with so much on the line? But NFL teams/head coaches are constantly terrible at planning and pre-planning and scouting.

Chuba Hubbard (2-6-0, 0-0-0/1) will get the push with CMC out because Matt Rhule’s wife was the lead scout on that one. However, he’s been so ‘meh’ that Ameer Abdullah (2-4-0, 2-20-0/6) is getting in more and more, and he might be the real answer for FF…with both being not much of an answer.

Carolina Week 14 could roll out a starting offense led by P.J. Walker and Chuba Hubbard. Good luck with that.

 -- Chuba Hubbard is so nothing that he makes me excited about Myles Gaskin (16-49-2, 2-3-0/2) by comparison, and I can’t stand Gaskin (as a purposeful starter while so many more talented guys are backups on other teams…can you process A.J. Dillon is a backup and Myles Gaskin is a feature? I can’t).

Phillip Lindsay (12-42-0, 0-0-0/0) is instantly better than Gaskin, one week into his arrival…but there is NO way Brian Flores (or any NFL head coach, except Bill Belichick) will change his RB rotation settled on in August/June (unless injury forces it).

Lindsay got good touches here, but most of it later with the game well in hand.

 -- You noticed what Durham Smythe (5-32-0/5, 2-3-0) has been doing lately?

Back-to-back games with 5 targets, 4 and 5 catches in the two games…oh, and he had two running plays this game? I wish the Giants were as creative with Evan Engram as the Dolphins are with non-athlete Durham Smythe, who sounds like the millionaire villain in a Lifetime movie made for TV.

Check this out, this might blow your mind (in a minor way)…

You know how I was saying Tua was great against bad defenses? It was four games with JAX, ATL (then Tua got hurt/finger) Weeks 6-7, and then the past two weeks. In those 4 isolated games…

4.3 rec. (5.0 targets), 41.3 yards, 0.0 TDs = Smythe

The past two games:

4.0 rec. (4.5 targets), 33.5 yards, 0.0 TDs = Gesicki

4.5 rec. (5.0 targets), 34.5 yards, 0.0 TDs = Smythe

Things are shifting, without warning, from Gesicki to Smythe. Why? I have no idea, but don’t question Tua’s distribution right now.

 - Jaylen Waddle (9-137-1/10) is PERFECT for the BTO offense. He’s so quick, he gets the ball in his hands and just goes. The offense you’d like to see for Tyreek Hill…Miami is running it with Jaylen Waddle (and Durham Smythe).

Since Week 6, Waddle is the #6 PPR PPG WR in FF.

As long as Tua isn’t getting figured out, this will continue to PPR-prosper.

 -- Speaking of Miami rookies starting to contribute…EDGE Jaelen Phillips (4 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 PD, 4 QB hits) had a whale of a game. Not sure how much was him and how much was the Panthers lack of blocking or caring. But Phillips is up to 6.5 sacks for the season…not bad for a rookie. Better than Chase Young is producing in the NFL on a per game basis in the NFL.

Phillips and Andrew Van Ginkel (2 tackles, 4 QB hits) had several ‘meet you at the QB’ events this game. 8 QB hits between them. Van Ginkel has 17 QB hits this season. Chase Young has 16 QB hits in his two NFL seasons.

Miami-DST vs. NYG Week 13…yep.

Miami-DST vs. NYJ Week 15…yep.

Miami-DST vs. NO Week 16…maybe.

Miami-DST vs. TEN Week 17…probably.

Panthers-DST the rest of the season? Week 14 v. ATL and that’s it.

Snap Counts of Interest:

66 = Smythe

59 = Gesicki

24 = H Long

55 = Waddle

35 = A Wilson

19 = M Hollins

27 = Abdullah

20 = McCaffrey

11 = Hubbard

Ross Jacobs

FFM

03 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 12: Ravens 16, Browns 10 

This was a sloppy, ugly affair between two decent but flawed teams. The Ravens won despite Lamar Jackson's 4 INT's and they are somehow now the #1 seed in the AFC.

I'll skip over all the gory details because it's just not worth it. It seemed like every other drive ended in a turnover, and every time you thought one team might get a little momentum off of a fumble or interception on defense, the offense would turn around and give it right back.

If the Browns could muster any kind of passing game they would have won going away here, but Baltimore stacked the line to stop Chubb and Hunt, daring Cleveland to pass the ball which they couldn't.

Of course, all the media can talk about all week is how it's Baker's fault and he needs to leave Cleveland. Anyone that believes that is either a sucker, blind, or an idiot. Baker is playing through countless injuries, is under pressure nearly every drop back, his receivers can't get any separation and when they do they drop the ball, and yet he's still trying to will his team to wins. If they didn't have Baker this team would have 2-3 wins max. Baker is the only thing holding them together right now.

I hope Cleveland runs him off. I really do. They don't deserve him. This team has been utter garbage for the past 20 years ever since they let some guy named Belichick walk, and they are headed right back to the trash heap if they let Mayfield go. Cleveland, you deserve all the pain you're about to endure. I hope you enjoy picking in the top 5 of every draft again.

A win here would have given the Browns new life in the race for the division, but this loss likely prevents them from pulling off the title. They'll struggle on for a few weeks and might possibly sneak into the playoffs, but this team just doesn't have enough juice to take it the distance unless something drastic changes. Their remaining schedule is tough, and they are likely to finish with either 8 or 9 wins max.

Baltimore is somehow 8-3 now, but they have to be the worst 8-3 team I've ever seen. This won't last. It's an ok team, but they do not have the firepower on either side of the ball to win 3 straight games in the playoffs against better teams. This makes two straight games where they've just barely squeaked by two average to poor teams in the Bears and the Browns by a combined 9 points and only scoring 16 each game themselves.

The Ravens still have to go through the Steelers twice, the Browns again, the Packers, Rams, and Bengals. Even though the Steelers are dying and the Browns aren't great, those games should still be competitive, and the Ravens luck is liable to run out at any time. I think they go 2-4 or 3-3 at best over the final six games and finish at either 10 or 11 wins with maybe the 3rd seed in the AFC. I don't believe they are even the 4th or 5th best actual team in the AFC though, and I won't be surprised if the Bengals can catch them. Their matchup the day after Christmas likely decides the division winner.

Fantasy Notes

--When is the media going to talk about Lamar Jackson's (20-32 for 165 yards, 1 TD/4 INT, 17-68-0) limitations and the fact that he is an overrated QB? Never. Because they have already sold themselves to his cause, his story, the same way they always choose favorites. They know he's the greatest thing ever, and no amount of evidence will convince them otherwise.

I'm not even kidding, this week I have seen multiple people make the argument that because the Ravens won despite the 4 INT's, that proves that Lamar is great. I'm sorry, what?? What kind of logic is that? It's the logic of people desperate to protect their own failing narratives.

Lamar is a good football player, no doubt, he wins a lot of games, but he's also a limited passer that's going to struggle when the flow of the game doesn't go his way. He needs a lot of help to be great and luckily he has one of the better organizations behind him to provide that support, but with things slowly starting to fall apart in Baltimore, the cracks are starting to show.

In 2021, Lamar has only thrown for more than 1 TD pass in a game twice, both times in ridiculous comeback situations against teams playing prevent defenses. For the season he now has 15 TD's and 12 INT's. Those are the numbers of a pretty good rookie, not a supposed league MVP.

Jalen Hurts: 60.1% comp, 2435 yards, 13 TD, 8 INT, 122 carries, 695 yards, 8 TD

Lamar Jackson: 64.2% comp, 2612 yards, 15 TD, 12 INT, 123 carries, 707 yards, 2 TD

According to the media one of these is an MVP candidate and the other needs to be replaced ASAP because he's a backup talent at best. Rational thought is not the strong suit of most people.

--Jarvis Landry (6-111-0/10) went over 100 yards here and is still being seen as the best option on this crap WR corp, but he also stupidly fumbled a ball away trying to run/pass on a trick play. If he had thrown the ball back to Mayfield that wouldn't have happened, but Landry still thinks he's some amazing superstar receiver that can do whatever he wants like his buddy OBJ. Neither player has been good for years, but don't try to tell them that. Hopefully Cleveland sees the light and rids themselves of this problem in the off-season.

--The guy Baker was working the most after Landry was definitely Donovan Peoples-Jones (2-10-0/5), but the connection just isn't there. Peoples-Jones is a good technician but can struggle to separate from more athletic corners. He's a nice #2 and should be a part of this passing game moving forward, but his ceiling seems capped for fantasy.

--Ja'Marcus Bradley (2-18-0/2) saw his snaps scaled back after last week, but he's definitely worked his way into the rotation as the #3 guy now. He's a decent player, but I still don't see signs of special and you don't want the #3 guy for Clevealand anyways. You barely want the #1 guy.

--Don't worry about Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Baltimore sold out to shut them down. Most teams can't do that. They'll get their numbers.

--If David Njoku (3-35-1/5) could catch, this might have been a monster day for him. In fact, I'm not sure how the official stat line is 3 of 5 for him as I saw him drop 3 passes for sure. Just another perfect scouting job by RC years ahead of time. Njoku has the athleticism but butterfingers to go along with it.

--Thanks for your services D'Ernest Johnson, get back on the bench! The fact that DJ can't get even a single carry or screen pass shows how far this coaching staff has their collective heads up stuck where the sun don't shine. Hopefully Johnson gets a chance to move on to a team that actually appreciates him in free agency.

IDP Notes

--The most interesting thing I saw in this game (you're not going to like it RC), Jeremiah Owusu-Kormoah (13 tackles, 0.5) sacks was flying all over the field making tackles. He looked fantastic, like a mix of Devin Bush and Roquan Smith.

He's been putting up around 4 tackles a game on 30-50% of the defensive snaps all year, but has gotten 80%+ three times now and has 25 tackles in those games. The numbers were a bit inflated here due to the Baltimore run game, but if he's going to be a full-time starter now, he might be up in that 8-9 tackle a game range. If you need a good LB off waivers I would jump on this. I don't believe it's a fluke.

*RC NOTE: I’m seeing good JOK numbers, but I’m not sure he’s playing great defense. He might just be in a good spot, a Joker position, to get to numbers but isn't having a big impact on the total defensive effort...he could be leaving gaps all over in his constant pursuit of tackles/the backfield/the ball. Makes a solid tackle play one snap, then is caught overplaying a fake and leaves a big chunk of the field exposed. That’s my fear with him, but it’s just speculation. I need to watch more tape of him in action. Good for IDP, possible issue for an NFL defense. We’ll see. Maybe he’s a disruptor. I won’t rule it out. From my college scouting memory, I thought he was a mediocre pursuer not a real defender in all phases. 

Like how Joey Bosa is considered a franchise player but I think he hurts a defense overall...but he does get a cool sack every other game. The other 68 plays in a game, ehhhh...not so cool. He’s a good pass rusher though...you just have to hope every play is somehow 3rd & long so his game fits the situation right. *See, also: the cool-looking defensive albatross Jamal Adams. 

https://youtu.be/8IIrf_JSuQk

Snap Counts of Interest

56 = Jarvis Landry

45 = Donovan Peoples-Jones

21 = Ja'Marcus Bradley

30 = Nick Chubb

23 = Kareem Hunt

6 = D'Ernest Johnson

61 = Marquise Brown

36 = Rashod Bateman

35 = Devin Duvernay

35 = Sammy Watkins

40 = Devonta Freeman

36 = Latavius Murray

2 = Ty'Son Williams