- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Titans 20, 49ers 17
This one really irritated me. I had the 49'ers giving up points in our internal handicapping contest, and they were clearly the better team here...except the clock on Jimmy Garoppolo's good fortune ran out and he turned back into the pumpkin he is.
Anyone that read my various arguments concerning Jimmy and Trey Lance back in the summer will know my opinion of him. I think he's a game manager and not a particularly good one. I think his arm is shot, he's never been a very accurate passer, he makes some inexplicably awful decisions, and he's got no mettle whatsoever. If the going gets tough, Jimmy folds like a wet napkin.
First drive of the game the 49'ers go right down the field for a TD, and I'm feeling pretty good about my bet. The Titans are missing a couple of offensive linemen and get beaten up on their first drive. SF drives down the field again and are looking for a 14-0 lead.
And that's when the Jimmy BS began. He throws an INT in the endzone literally right to a defender hanging all over his target.
Next drive and SF is rolling again...until Jimmy misses an absolutely wide open Kyle Juszczyk. It should have been a walk in TD. Sam Darnold could have hit that pass. Not Jimmy G. So instead of a 21-0 lead, it's now only 10-0 thanks to Garoppolo.
At this point the Titans still can't do anything on offense, and I'm assuming that it's just a matter of time until the SF mistakes stop and they blow Tennessee out. Nope. Next drive for SF and Jimmy throws the ball right to a defender...who drops it luckily. Now I'm starting to get worried. Things are not improving.
The Titans kick a FG and it's 10-3 at the half.
SF gets the ball after halftime, and what do you think happened next? Jimmy throws another godawful INT right to a defender. Foreman takes the TD in and we have a tie game.
Penalties stall the next promising SF drive and the ball is turned over on downs. Until this point the Titans have done literally nothing on offense. And then they magically discover that AJ Brown is uncoverable. Tannehill throws up a prayer, Brown blatantly pushes Ambry Thomas away from him for a no-call, and Tennessee caps off the drive after Brown beats Josh Norman for a TD, 17-10 Titans.
SF would finally muster a scoring drive of their own to tie the game with 2:20 left, but it was too much time, and the Titans calmly marched down the field while Brown drubbed Norman over and over. The Titans kicked the go-ahead FG with 4 seconds left. Ball game.
The Titans get the big win that will very likely lead to them clinching the AFC South over the Colts. They still have to get by Miami this week, no easy task, but even if they lose and the Colts win out, Tennessee should still win the division on tiebreaks since they beat the Colts twice. They are most likely headed to the playoffs with a 2 or 3 seed, and if Derrick Henry comes back like we're hearing reports say, this team is extremely dangerous.
The 49'ers lost, but because the Vikings lost as well, their path remains open to make the playoffs. My guess is they beat Houston this week but lose to the Rams in week 18. That gets them to 9-7 which should be good enough for a 6 or 7 seed. Can they do anything in the playoffs? Maybe. I don't see this team making it all the way to the Superbowl, but perhaps they can upset a team or two. I doubt it though.
SF's defense is usable against the Texans this week. Davis Mills has been playing good ball, but they aren't going to be running Burkhead for 140 yards against this defensive line. Solid streaming option.
You could also try using Tennessee's defense against Miami, but I wouldn't. They will shut down the run game, but their pass defense is not good and Tua is very likely to carve them up with that quick passing game.
Fantasy Notes
--So after the whole world witnessed the Garoppolo disaster, it should be time for Trey Lance, right? Well, not if Shanahan had his way. Garoppolo has officially been listed as doubtful after sustaining a thumb injury, and it sounds like Lance will get the nod, but I can assure you Shanahan isn't happy about it.
I drew a line in the sand with RC this summer by casting my lot in with Lance as the #1 QB from the 2021 draft class, and this is a great spot for him to show what he can do. He's had almost an entire year to prepare and grow, he faces a weak defense...what's not to love? For fantasy purposes you have to consider Lance a QB1. He's going to be running a fair amount, lots of option stuff, some nice safe throws to get him in a rhythm. I'd expect somewhere in the 20-24 point range in 4-pt passing TD leagues.
As far as his real life prospects go, I want to see growth from him. I want to see him reading the defense, at least better than he was in the preseason. I want to see him delivering accurate passes, less sailing throws, cutting down on throwing into coverage...your typical development QB milestones. If I don't see some of those things I'm going to be quite nervous heading into next year with him...
--One thing that would help Lance is getting Elijah Mitchell back on the field, but that's not a sure thing yet. Mitchell supposedly got in a limited practice Thursday but has still been dealing with the ankle that's kept him out the past few weeks. He's questionable for Sunday.
If he can play, I'd expect the 49'ers to be somewhat cautious with him. They should be able to get a lead on Houston, and if they do it would be smart to throttle back Mitchell's carries to keep him healthy for the playoffs. We'll continue to monitor this situation, but my best guess is that Mitchell will play and take a solid workload but probably rotate to a larger degree than usual. I'd consider him a borderline RB1 if he plays. RC might have a different read on this situation though.
*RC NOTE: I think you have two things to worry about with EMitch, if he’s back for Week 17…
1) He’s been out a couple weeks, and just getting back to limited practices. How healthy will he be come Sunday? And if they wipe out Houston quickly…is Mitchell staying in all game and taking 15-20+ carries just coming off missing 2+ weeks?
2) How much run game action will Trey Lance take from Mitchell (or Wilson) in the run game if everyone is ‘fine’?
If Mitchell is active and starting, he’s something – but questions abound, but they also face Houston’s awful run defense…so there may be enough to go around for everybody. How much we trust Mitchell is a decision going down to the wire with more info by Sunday kickoff.
--George Kittle had a stinker here after blowing up the past few weeks. I didn't see any particular reason for it other than Jimmy just not looking at him. He's still a top 3 TE this week.
--As I covered above, AJ Brown obviously had a monster day here, and the majority of it came against Josh Norman. Don't expect a similar performance this week against Xavien Howard and the Dolphins. You basically have to start Brown if you have him, but to me he's more of a WR1.5-2 this week than the top 5 guy most analysts are billing him as.
--This was looking like a good day for D'Onta Foreman early on, but he ultimately had to save his fantasy day with a short TD plunge. He actually had a potential 2nd TD called back for a hold right before halftime or it might have been even better. After that he got nicked up for a bit which allowed Jeremy McNichols to come in and spark the offense on a couple good runs.
Foreman is still the “lead” here, but it's become a pretty heavy rotation at this point and I see no reason why that won't continue against the Dolphins. If you play Foreman this week you're praying for a TD.
IDP Notes
--It was nice to see Jordan Willis (2 tackles, 1 sack), an old favorite of RC's, getting a sack here. Unfortunately, it's not some new trend and I don't think he's really resurrecting his career the way RC hoped. It was just a case of Tennessee missing offensive linemen and SF taking advantage. Same deal for Samson Ebukam (4 tackles, 1.5 sacks).
Willis is still just a rotational pass rusher playing 20-25% of the snaps. Ebukam is much more involved and has grown his role from 35% early in the season to around 65% now. Still, this was more about Tennessee's line than anything. Of course, this week against Houston is another juicy matchup for all the SF rushers.
--Since Tennessee's acquisition of Zach Cunningham (4 tackles) a few weeks ago, he has played 76 snaps the past two weeks compared to Jayon Brown's 32. We can safely consider Cunningham the starter moving forward.
The stupid part is that despite outsnapping Brown 43-16 this game, Brown actually had 5 tackles to Cunningham's 4. That tells you all you need to know about their talent levels and who the better player is currently, but does that matter to head coaches? Not one bit. Vrabel has a previous relationship with Cunningham and that's all that matters. Just another reason why I refuse to cast my vote with him for Coach of the Year.
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Bears 25, Seahawks 24
The Bears really should not have won this game, but as RC has been telling us for years, Nick Foles is magic and somehow finds a way to win games like this. Foles came in off the bench, in the cold and snow, and immediately looked like the best QB Chicago has started all year. He pulls off the 4th quarter comeback, and what will it get him? Another chance to start against the Giants? Nope. He's being sent right back to the bench for Andy Dalton.
Thank you for your services, Nick! You are no longer needed.
Seattle controlled this game from the get go. They were the better team, and Chicago really didn't do anything to stop them the entire time. But every time the Seahawks got a bigger lead, the Bears would somehow put together a drive to get it back to a one score game.
With just minutes to go Seattle looked like they were ready to slam the door shut for good, but a missed 39 yard FG gave the Bears some life.
Chicago didn't immediately capitalize, but they got the ball back a second time after turning it over on downs, and this time Foles found Jimmy Graham for the TD. An amazing 2-pt conversion catch by Damiere Byrd gave Chicago the lead, and the Seahawks were unable to get in field goal position with about a minute left.
Of course, this game didn't really matter for either team as they've both been eliminated from playoff contention. Both of them are now 5-10 and will likely finish at 6-11, and both teams could very well be looking for new coaches in a few weeks.
You can probably use the Seattle defense against the Lions this week in a pinch, especially if Goff is out, but I'd be more interested in using Chicago's defense against the Giants. The Bears have been very good at generating sacks this year (5th in the league), and the Giants offensive line is a travesty, plus you'll have the statue known as Mike Glennon back there.
Fantasy Notes
--Rashaad Penny (17-135-1) has to be in the conversation as a RB1 this week against the Lions pathetic run defense. He's kind of offending my sensibilities with his success right now because all I see him doing is running fast straight ahead, BUT it's working, so why would I fight the trends?
The Seahawks are feeding him the ball and suddenly starting to actually open up some running lanes for him, and when Penny can get going downhill he's actually quite difficult to stop. I don't think the Lions will be able to attack him at the line this week, so definitely start Penny at RB if you have him. I will be.
--What's wrong with DK Metcalf (2-41-1/5)? Nothing. He looks like one of the most physically dominant receivers in the league. I'm wondering if things aren't great between him and Wilson though, because after the first TD they connected on (presumably to shut Metcalf up after he's been understandably whining about targets), Wilson rarely looked his way again.
Metcalf is open. Russell just isn't looking at him most plays. He's also being sent deep a lot, and on the rare times Wilson does throw it to him short, he's often off-target. To me it's Russell that doesn't look quite right. Maybe the finger is bothering him or maybe he's just checked out from dealing with Pete Carroll, but he's just not playing like the Russell we've come to know, and it's dragging everything down, Metcalf included.
If you have DK in a championship game this week, you basically have to start him against a beat up Detroit secondary, but he's more WR2.5 than anything right now.
--The Seattle skill position player I was most surprised to see so involved is Gerald Everett (4-68-1/5). He's being used like a jumbo receiver right now, and he's just as involved in the game plan as Metcalf or Lockett.
In his last 7 games, Everett has gone 30-287-3/38 (10.95 ppg in ppr). That's solid TE1 work. I'd look for that to continue this week against the Lions defense, but I am just a bit nervous because his two bad games in that stretch were the two games Seattle won. It seems like he might be used more when they are trying to hang in games where they are down. Food for thought.
--Allen Robinson might be back from his bout with COVID this week, but that depends on how he's feeling. He apparently struggled with it and still wasn't doing well a few days ago. I'd probably say the same whether it was true or not if I was in his shoes. Why rush back for a team that's out of the playoffs and will be starting Dalton on Sunday? My guess is Robinson sits out this week and likely week 18 as well. Even if he does play you're not starting him in fantasy.
--I'm coming off my completely negative view of Cole Kmet (4-49-0/5) a bit. Obviously he's been working ok enough for fantasy, but I've been totally against him for the future because every time I've watched him he looks beyond sluggish.
This was the first time all year I've seen him look, not good, but decent. He wasn't moving like a slug. Still don't see any zip to his movements, but at least “average” is an improvement over “turtle.” And who knows maybe he can find an extra gear David Montgomery-style.
--Rookie WR Dazz Newsome got his first catch after making his debut last week. Wasn't a fan when I watched him with North Carolina. Not a fan now. Just another generic small receiver.
Snap Counts of Interest
63 = Mooney
62 = Byrd
34 = Newsome
23 = Goodwin
49 = Metcalf
48 = Lockett
29 = Swain
20 = Eskridge
47 = Everett
30 = Penny
22 = Dallas
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Dolphins 20, Saints 3
There’s not much reason to dive deep into the mechanics of this game. The Dolphins are the most blessed team in the NFL…seven wins in-a-row with the easiest schedule filled with lucky wins and good fortune at every turn. Miami was likely on their way to getting their head’s handed to them by the Saints…and then the Saints lost a chunk of their team to COVID, including their #1 and #2 QB…just in time for the MNF affair.
The Saints had to force rookie Ian Book into the starting QB role, and he was as bad as you’d expect…and still the Saints were hanging around in this game past halftime. Eventually, the lack of Saints offense buckled them and Miami got a 2+ score lead and the Saints were never going to score a TD on purpose, and Miami quietly put them away. It never should’ve been this way for the Saints but for the COVID testing rules. But…it is what it is.
With this lucky win, Miami jumps to (8-7) and firmly in the playoff race. They still need to win out to have hope of the playoffs…and I don’t think they will at TEN and v. NE the next two games. I need them to lose out to salvage my win total ‘under’ bet on them at 8.0 wins. It should’ve never gotten close to this, but…it is what it is. Thanks, COVID. Thanks to you ‘Mr. Schedule’ that has had a ‘who’s who’ of the bottom teams in the league thrown their way since Week 6.
The Saints fall to (7-8) but are actually in better shape to make the playoffs than Miami. If the Saints win out…with v. CAR, then at ATL ahead – it is a pretty good opportunity to do so…then the Saints need some minor help from other NFC wild card teams to just a lose a game/not win out to help NO slide into the wild card.
The Saints are more projected in the NFC playoffs than out today, Miami more out of the AFC playoffs than in.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Just a quick review/critique: Rookie QB Ian Book (12-20 for 135 yards, 0 TD/2 INT, 3-6-0) is a good guy, a scrappy player, but he just doesn’t have NFL level QB talent/arm strength. It showed here, and likely his career ended here. He’ll be a journeyman QB soon enough.
-- Taysom Hill will return for Week 17 and has a so-so matchup with the Panthers defense. Carolina has a decent pass defense, but a dying run defense…so Taysom will be more apt to keep the ball himself and run to victory over the Panthers.
In his three starts this season, Hill has rushed the ball exactly 11 times in each game…for an average of 69.0 yards per game.
Seven career starts at QB for Hill, a (6-1) record, 10.3 rush attempts for 59.4 yards and 0.85 TDs per game – he’s going to lay a baseline of 10-11-12 FF points rushing, you just have to hope he throws for enough action to give him a 20+ point FF game. His passing efforts have all been around 200-230 yards and a TD per game…either 0 or 2 passing TDs in games, nothing else in seven starts. Will you get the zero or the two TD passes this week?
My slight lean is ‘under’ 20 FF points this week, but 20+ is always possible with Hill because of the rushing baseline points.
-- Because the Saints (under Hill) don’t throw as much, you can’t really trust Marquez Callaway (4-46-0/5) all that much.
Under 50 yards receiving in nine of his last 10 games.
Under 40 yards receiving in eight of his last 10 games.
No TD catches in his last 5 games.
He’s their #1 WR, but a random event for FF.
-- I knew Duke Johnson (13-39-0) was playing a bigger role for Miami, but I didn’t realize Philip Lindsay (13-36-0) had played such a large part here too…and that Myles Gaskin (3-10-0, 1-6-0/3) seems to be being fully replaced.
All this time Miami has wasted with Myles Gaskin, and all it took was randomly lucking into Lindsay and then is forced into Duke via COVID…and, well, whaddya know! They’re the starters suddenly. It shows how much Gaskins sucks. I guess?
Brian Flores is secretly one of the worst of the worst head coaches because of horrific personnel decisions on offense -- but has been bailed out by schedule the past seasons. But the fans and media won’t have any of that talk as long as the win streak continues. Wins matter, not their context…just like losses.
I guess we’re in a Duke lead with Lindsay support and some Gaskin sprinkled-in type of Miami RB world now…and they are facing the emerging run defense of Tennessee in Week 17, in which they’ll all get halted v. TEN like they did here versus top run defense New Orleans. The Titans run defense is getting really good.
-- Tua (19-26 for 196 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) getting bottled up here is not a shock. I projected this happening because for all of Tua’s improvement in the BTO (Baby Throw Offense), his kryptonite is aggressive/disciplined defenses – that’s why Buffalo smashes him every time they meet, and the Saints half-a-defense-out-with COVID suppressed him here. The Titans are an emerging, aggressive defense like a Buffalo or New Orleans style/mindset…they are going to halt the run and put pressure on Tua, and that’s not where Tua shines.
Tua v. TEN is not a good matchup.
Every throw will still go to Jaylen Waddle (10-92-1/12) but outside of that not much will likely happen.
-- I love the new articles and fresh tweets I see this week from football pundits trying to drop the mic on how good Marcus Davenport (5 tackles, 1 sack, 2 QB hits) has been this year…because they just figured it out watching him this MNF game and then noticed his numbers, and then noticed the numbers are happening in a reduced amount of games.
We were getting on this train Weeks 9-10. Welcome to the train, football pundits who make 7-figures to analyze this stuff for a living for the masses.
Davenport has only played in nine games this season. If you take those nine games and extrapolate his output over an (old) 16-game season, his key tallies would be: 13.3 sacks, 16 TFLs, 23 QB hits for the extrapolated season.
-- You have to love the Saints-DST for Week 17 vs. Sam Darnold, especially now that Demario Davis is cleared to play. Only Marcus Williams, among the NO regular starters, has yet to be cleared for action from the COVID hit last week.
-- I like, not love, and am leery of the Dolphins-DST vs. TEN Week 17. So much of the recent hot Dolphins-DST run has been against garbage teams or COVID hit teams, that we don’t know how good they really are. I think they are a bit ‘risky’ vs. TEN getting their starting OLs back from COVID this week.
Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = Callaway
28 = L Humphrey
17 = Stills
14 = Tre’Quan Smith
31 = AK
24 = Ingram
02 = T Jones
58 = Waddle
46 = D Parker
23 = Duke J
20 = Gaskin
19 = Lindsay
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Bengals 41, Ravens 21
First, the Ravens had Lamar hurt and unable to play. Then, Tyler Huntley got COVID a day+ ahead of the game. Baltimore had to deploy practice squad QB, recently signed, Josh Johnson…and everyone could probably guess what was going to happen from there…and it did…a drubbing by the Bengals.
Honestly, this game wasn’t as much of a blowout as you’d think. The Ravens led 7-3 early. The Bengals were up and down on both sides of the ball, but bailed out by penalties early, then Ravens CB Anthony Averett went down and that released the floodgates of a confused, patchwork Ravens secondary…and Joe Burrow throwing for 500+ yards.
The Bengals are now (9-6) and knocking on the door of the AFC North title. If they can beat KC this week, they have a strong shot at a #1 seed in the end. It’s a tall order, but I think Cincinnati, at full strength, might be the best team in the AFC right now…because all the top AFC teams have flaws. It’s probably too early for all this for Cincy, but just know…with Burrow…Cincy is going to be among the top AFC teams for years to come.
The Ravens are now (8-7) and they have a long shot hope at the AFC North still, but a reasonable chance at a wild card if they can win one of their next 2 games and get some help. Win their next two games, and they are very likely in the playoffs. I don’t think they can win two ahead (LAR, PIT) but they should/could beat PIT Week 18 and then cross their fingers around them.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Joe Burrow (37-46 for 525 yards, 4 TDs/1 INT) single handedly won some people a trip to the next round of the FF playoffs if they started him here. Burrow is good, was good…but when CB Anthony Averett went down he destroyed the Ravens secondary.
Burrow is the new Tom Brady…the closest thing we have to it.
If Burrow goes and beats KC Week 17, he’s likely my MVP vote for 2021 season.
-- What should the Ravens think when Josh Johnson (28-40 304 yards for 2 TDs/1 INT) comes off the Jets practice squad and in less than a week is a better passer than Lamar Jackson in this offense? Just sayin’…when Lamar gets that 7-year/$300M+ deal, the Ravens will have signed their future death certificate for the next 4-5 years of non-Super Bowl trips/hopes.
-- Burrow went off, so his WRs went for the ride too…
Since Week 12, Tee Higgins (12-194-2/13) has been the #4 PPR PPG WR in Fantasy…four 100+ yard games in his last 5 games.
Ja’Marr Chase (7-125-0/10)…I can (and will) say, “Oh, Chase was made by Burrow at LSU.” That could be 100% true, but HE’S GOT BURROW IN THE NFL now too. The top things around Burrow are gonna prosper.
If the Bengals get their hands on a top TE prospect or free agent in 2022, that TE is going to be a hot TE1 prospect ahead.
-- I keep saying that I can’t trust Rashod Bateman (4-26-1/5) because of the QB play in Baltimore, but two things keep hitting me…
1) He’s a really promising WR talent. Better than Marquise Brown (5-44-0/9), and that’s not a shot at Brown.
2) No Lamar…and Bateman is getting more looks and is producing. I shouldn’t say Bateman’s FF problem is the BAL QB play…I should specifically say it’s a Lamar Jackson issue. When LJax is out again ahead, and Huntley takes over – I’ll be down with Bateman as a WR2 option.
LJax is tied to Marquise (and Andrews)…and not enough volume left for consistent Bateman. There’s only room for two FF stars from this passing game…and if Bateman makes a move from WR3, it will only go so high…and thus brings Brown down a peg to Bateman-Brown as hard to predict WR2 output week to week. Two WR2-3s…with Brown no longer a WR1-2 (if Bateman starts to rise some).
-- James Proche (7-76-0/8) had nice numbers here, but the Ravens were throwing a bunch and Proche got on the field as a #3 WR a lot and he took some volume (Duvernay out pushed this). He’s a decent NFL WR…but if you think Bateman is in trouble due to LJax, then…
-- Whether it’s Lamar…or Huntley…or Josh Johnson, Mark Andrews (8-125-1/10) is on fire and seemingly unstoppable. Sign of a great FF TE…when the QB play doesn’t hurt him.
It’s a real debate for 2022 now…who is the best TE? No longer just Kelce or Waller…now it’s Kelce or Kittle…or Mark Andrews, and I’m not sure the right answer isn’t Andrews in 2022.
-- Cincy defense side note for IDP…
Key/top Bengals ILB Logan Wilson has been practicing in full and is expected to be back 100% and starting Week 17.
Snap Counts of Interest:
49 = Uzomah
32 = Sample
62 = Mixon
11 = Perine
54 = M Brown
48 = Bateman
28 = Proche
27 = Wallace
03 = Sammy Watkins (ha!)
33 = D Freeman
17 = Latavius
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Bucs 32, Panthers 6
This was never really a game. The Panthers are pathetic for any number of reasons, the main one being their QB play…they’re now rotating the two worst QBs in the NFL, as a plan…on purpose. It’s bad enough if Darnold or Cam play all the way -- but rotating them gives you the worst of all worlds.
Tampa Bay was missing several offensive starters due to injury, but their ‘B team’ guys waltzed right thru Carolina, because Tom Brady is there captaining the ship.
Tampa Bay rises to (11-4) -- and should win out…but has little chance at a #1 seed in the NFC. So many things have to go TB’s way, but unfortunately for them they will have to likely go through Green Bay to get back to the Super Bowl. They have Tom Brady, so they probably will…when/if TB goes to GB in late January, it will probably be a global warming event the likes of which no one in Wisconsin has ever seen to make Tom as comfortable as God desires.
Carolina falls to (5-10) and are likely to lose out and have an outside shot at still getting into the top 5 of the 2022 NFL Draft. The team that started (3-0) has gone (2-10) since. Matt Rhule is embarrassing himself every week. I watched his 17-minute press conference post-game, and he was sweating like a proverbial whore in church…as he talked-fast like a criminal under interrogation that everyone can tell he’s lying, but he’s thinking ‘no one knows I’m lying, I’m so smooth at this’. Then the Jay-Z nonsense he dropped…yeccckkk. Lost in all that is he also referenced the Fresh Prince of Bel Air during this rambling excuse fest as to why the team sucks but they’re really good…just no one sees it yet. Next week he’ll reference Alf, Falcon Crest, Vanilla Ice, and the Love Boat to show how current he is in relating to players and people at large.
I wouldn't fire Rhule yet, if I’m David Tepper. I give him some more time to work this out. I mean…what else is out there better than Rhule? Rhule may not be fit for the NFL now…or ever, but there’s no obvious replacement anywhere. Which is why I’m not going to waste a ton of time reading about or speculating about the 2022 coaching carousel. I’ll analyze them once someone gets the job.
The NFL, fans, and the media wastes a month debating ‘who should be hired’ for whatever open job. People are never satisfied with their current coach, and everyone/anyone else always seems better. Teams hire ___, and then the local and national media prattles on about what a great hire and they name the bullet point good things that ____ was around/part of recently and how ____ is going to change the culture, and then ____ comes in at his intro press conference and talks about changing the culture and reducing penalties and being a physical football team. All of the new hires parrot the same things over and over…year after year, and then they always fail within 2-3 years, and we do the cycle all over again.
Who do you really respect among the NFL head coaches? Bill Belichick and….? Maybe Sean McDermott is next…or Mike Vrabel? It’s a big drop off from Belichick…and he may not be ‘all that’ without Brady. You either have an elite QB, or you don’t – and you either have an O-Line to protect them, or you don’t. You wanna know who might be the next great NFL head coaching hire? Tell me who the QB is they are inheriting and what the O-Line depth chart looks like, and then I can try and guess if they will be a good coach (see: Matt LaFleur, Andy Reid, among others). Matt Rhule currently sucks as a head coach because he sucks at evaluating QBs. Leave him there long enough and he’ll stumble into one randomly, eventually.
I thought this was going to be a boring watch…a blowout with little to really learn (Carolina sucks, Tampa is good…not that difficult!)…but in reality, there’s lots of little nuggets from this game.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- It was a strange flow to the Buccaneer backfield this game…
Ronald Jones (20-65-1, 2-16-0/3) got the start and the dominant touches, as you would expect. He was in every play early on, even on 3rd-downs. A few series in, randomly, Ke’Shawn Vaughn (7-70-1, 0-0-0/1) appeared. When it happened, I was like…”Oh, yeah…that guy. They’ll want to get him touches in this beatdown I suspect.” He then gets the handoff, breaks a tackle at the line of scrimmage, gets out into some open space, breaks another tackle and then jets down the field like he’s the best RB prospect in the NFL. I was like…What the…? Where did that come from? Where has that guy been?
After the impressive TD, I then thought…”Well, that screws any of our RoJo starts this day. Now Vaughn will be in a bunch!” Nope. Vaughn just had the most impressive run by a Tampa Bay back since James Wilder (probably, who knows…just reaching into my history bag) and then he’s a ghost watching RoJo run a lot.
Ronald Jones went back in and was fine. He even botched pass catch attempts, because he has the worst hands of any RB in the NFL, but that didn’t stop him from staying in the game. Eventually, Vaughn would pop up here and there but then he’d get stuffed on a run, then he botched a flare pass from Brady…he didn’t help himself after the 55-yard TD run.
My takeaways from this game, going into Week 17…
1) The Bucs/Arians seems committed to Ronald Jones…and not pressing on Vaughn. Even when this game was getting out of hand 4th-quarter…still RoJo working a bunch with little Vaughn activity. I have to assume that’s Arians’ mindset going into Week 17.
2) Vaughn showed flashes of a real, dangerous RB here…his TD run, then a later in game run up the middle he almost popped too – for the first time in his NFL career, Vaughn has my attention a bit.
The only Tampa Bay RB under contract for 2022 on their roster today is: Ke’Shawn Vaughn…the RB who Bruce Arians said the following off after the game…
After the win, Bucs head coach Bruce Arians was asked if he thinks Vaughn has a future as the team’s third-down back.
“No, I think he’s a lead back,” Arians said, via Zach Goodall of SI.com. “He has great running skills, excellent jump-cut ability and he’s worked on his hands. His hands are better. He dropped [a pass on Sunday] — it pissed him off — but he has worked on his hands hard. I think he’s a lead dog.”
That’s great, but I saw zero effort to push him after his big run in this game…which follows a two-year path of ignoring by Arians. There has been ZERO push for Vaughn at all under Arians, which is odd…but we have to assume is the Week 17 reality, but I’m a little wary of it being a spot to push Vaughn some more (assuming they’ll kill the Jets).
3) Le’Veon Bell plays RB like Jared Cook plays TE these days…no speed, no juice…shouldn’t even be on an NFL team.
-- Antonio Brown (10-101-0/15) looks like he’s 27 years old and in the prime of his career. He abused Stephon Gilmore the entire time Gilmore was in there. And Stephon Gilmore looks like he lost interest in playing football a long time ago.
…and Bill Belichick looks like a genius for seeing it ahead of everyone else and deserves an apology from me for jumping to conclusions too fast. Belichick knows existing NFL players more than anyone in the NFL. He doesn’t know how to draft any better than anyone else, thus he uses ‘played for Alabama’ as his draft ranking guide…but let him see the players in the NFL – and he’s gold. And I know what he’s sensing. I see things scouting for the college draft, and I have to make big predictions and projections (guesses) – but really, I’m at my best when I can then see them working in the NFL side-by-side other NFLers.
-- The reason why Tyler Johnson got no targets, and Scott Miller didn’t see any targets when Brady was playing (saw one target with Gabbert) is Cyril Grayson (3-81-0/3, 1-14-0) is now a thing.
Grayson started, not Johnson (in their normal two WR set).
Grayson saw three targets and one jet sweep (for a sweet 14 yards)…more than Miller (1) and Tyler (0) combined.
Grayson has legit NFL speed+ (4.33 40-time at his Pro Day)…a former track star at LSU turned football player.
Grayson has become what you thought Scotty Miller might be – the speedy deep-ball threat for Brady, at his disposal. And for FF, Grayson can do more with 3-5 targets than others (like Tyler Johnson) can do with 6-8+ targets.
This season, Grayson has 4 catches for 131 yards…a whopping 43.7 yards per catch.
If Evans is out, Grayson could start again Week 17…against the Jets…and will probably have another 3-4 catches, for 50+ yards, with a shot at a long TD. If Evans is back, Grayson might have 1-3 catches for 50+ yards, with a shot at a long TD playing 30-40% of the snaps.
If Breshad Perriman (DNP COVID) is ready-to-go, he might get rammed back in as a starter…and split time with Grayson, but Perriman gets a bigger push.
If Evans AND AB are out, it could be Perriman-Grayson starting Week 17 in a juicy matchup v. Jets.
Grayson is not a future starter/star, per se…just a ‘weapon’ who is possibly at the right place at the right time. If Brady retires, then no more Grayson FF-talk for a while/ever. Grayson is going to push onto the Dynasty Stash reports in the top 175 this next publishing. He’s older (28 years old), but he’s more about the right now pop he could have with Brady for another season as a sweet #4 WR rotating weapon…and maybe a long shot #3 WR a la a (recent) DeSean Jackson type of decoy/threat.
-- Tom Brady (18-30 for 232 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) had a down game, but don’t blame it on ‘he’s missing Evans-Godwin-Fournette’. He had a lot of chances in this game that were near misses, strange moments and then two rushing TDs hogging the aerial score potential. Everything looked fine here.
-- It did not look fine for Sam Darnold (15-32 for 190 yards, 0 TD/0 INT)…the guy is a joke. He’s so busy forcing the ball to D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson he’s missing a bevy of other, young weapons. Darnold is a great play Week 17…for the NO-DST.
-- Speaking of the Panthers’ young weapons, let’s go over them because they were hiding in plain sight, but Darnold sucks so hard. Matt Rhule would be a much better/accepted coach if he had a real QB, because he’s building solid young pieces around the shitty QB…but the QB rules/Rhules in the NFL.
The Panthers have three good-looking young players going to waste right now…
1) Tommy Tremble (2-22-0/2) looks so much more confident in the passing game as the season goes on. He could be a low-end TE1 if he had a decent QB to work with Week 17…or a low end TE1 in PPR next season.
Tremble has a bigger and better-than-Jonnu Smith vibe to his game.
2) WR Shi Smith (3-86-0/5) could be a future slot WR for Carolina…but they may shove him to the outside as a decoy/deep ball threat instead. And if they don’t have a QB, Shi won’t FF-matter…just like Robby or DJM don’t much matter for FF.
3) Terrace Marshall (1-6-0/1) has size and movement skills, almost like an athletic TE. He shows ability but a lot of inconsistency, and a personality I’m not sure Matt Rhule will put up with for long with Joe Brady gone – but there’s raw clay here as a legit starting NFL WR. More athlete than WR…which is the part you cant teach.
*4) The young player that is dying on the vine…Chuba Hubbard (6-9-0, 0-0-0/1). He’s done nothing with CMC officially out. This offense is terrible, so that doesn’t help…but he’s pretty flimsy, so that doesn’t help either. I assume he’s fading off, but Matt Rhule’s wife swears by him, so…
-- You have to love the Bucs-DST vs. NYJ Week 17, but beware…TB started the week with 75% of their starting secondary on the COVID list. It may not be until the weekend before we know if they’re cleared…any or all.
Snap Counts of Interest:
41 = Tremble
24 = I Thomas
34 = Hubbard
23 = Abdullah
14 = Bonnafon
41 = T Marshall
15 = Shi Smith
53 = AB
53 = Grayson
36 = Tyler Johnson
03 = S Miller
35 = RoJo
24 = K Vaughn
03 = Le’Veon
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Bills 33, Patriots 21
The Bills got up 7-0 in the 1st-quarter, and never trailed the entire game…but every time they’d get up by two scores, the Pats would cut it to one…so, it was a game down to the final five minutes, where Buffalo put it away with a TD at the 2:30 mark, to go up 12 points, and cut off the final gasp for air by New England. A huge win…a huge mental victory for a Buffalo team that had its psyche fading away recently. They are not ‘fixed’ but this was a step in the right direction.
Really, this game wasn’t that close to my eye – Buffalo was dominant, and the Patriots were lucky the Bills didn’t score 4-5 TDs in the 1st-half. The Bills were constantly thwarted by ill-timed penalties or near-miss TDs, etc.
Checkout the key internal stats from this game…
Bills 428 yards, NE 288 yards
Bills 6-of-12 on 3rd-downs, NE 1-of-10.
Two turnovers for NE, none for BUF.
The Bills get a resounding win to take back the division lead at (11-6), tied with the Pats…but if BUF wins out then they win the AFC East. Who do the Bills finish up with…two home games vs. ATL and NYJ. If they lose one of those games, they deserve to not make the playoffs. Buffalo still has a path to a #1 seed, but it involves a lot of good teams losing all their games…not likely to happen. Bills should win the AFC East and be a #3 seed for the playoffs.
The Patriots blew their chance…but they were really in over their heads. They are to be credited for getting this far…they just aren’t as good as the Bills. New England should win out and be a top wild card…where they will likely get bounced in the 1st-round…and it could be facing Buffalo again.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- There were four MVP (game) performances for the Bills here, and I want to point out all four because they all have some relevance going forward…
1) Josh Allen (30-47 for 314 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT, 12-64-0) did what you want an elite QB to do…he took over the game – running over and around people when he had to, and making a lot of good throws in not so perfect weather against what was arguably the top 1-2 pass defense in the NFL going in.
Going to be ‘feels like’ 10-15 degrees Week 17 vs. ATL…not optimal weather, but not totally restricting (and warming up a tiny amount in forecasts every day this week)…and with Allen carrying the team on the ground and air, you have to ride the current #1 PPG QB in all of Fantasy one more week regardless of the extreme cold.
2) Really impressive performance by Stefon Diggs (7-85-1/13) here. In a big money game, the Bills as an underdog taking back the AFC East…with Diggs facing the GREAT CB J.C. Jackson, who has smushed almost everyone he’s covered this season – Diggs beat him. I haven’t seen Jackson on his heels, frustrated like that in a long time. Credit to Diggs…credit to Allen.
I was a bit worried about Diggs in the deeper cold Week 17 vs. A.J. Terrell…not that Diggs isn’t great/better than Terrell -- but would the weather also kinda put a lid on things? However, considering what Diggs just did to Jackson in not great weather…you kinda have to ride-or-die with Diggs this week too.
3) Isaiah McKenzie (11-125-1/12) was probably the true MVP. We know Allen-Diggs are great, but McKenzie changed the offense from it’s choppy (all season) ways with Cole Beasley (DNP) in. McKenzie was just not ‘right place, right time’, as I have said those (incorrect) words out of my own mouth/two typing hands…no, he was better than that.
I mean, I knew McKenzie could have a moment here – we were giving him a deeper FF-roster push to start last week, and some were able to, and now those teams are in the FF finals. I just thought McKenzie would get a few good touches and has the speed to spring one…I didn’t know he’d be a star here.
What happened here was McKenzie as a real bulldog…he converted several key 3rd-downs. I’ve seen a lot of drops with the Bills WRs this season…McKenzie didn’t miss a thing and dove for passes and took on tacklers, and was money. His best game ever – and played in a way that he deserves to start/split over Beasley…but he won’t because Allen and Beasley are BFFs. But McDermott will likely take Beasley off the field some and get McKenzie on it more so Allen has no choice.
Hell of a performance, not just the stats, the actual tape…very good…very gritty. Just in time for his 2022 free agency in a few months. McKenzie jumps onto the Stash report next week.
4) We also have to credit Devin Singletary (12-39-1, 5-39-0/6) for another lead back performance. DS has put Moss-Breida into the dustbin of Buffalo RB history in recent weeks…which, I don’t know what the hell McDermott has been thinking trying to push Moss or Breida over the obvious answer sitting right there in Singletary.
Singletary has been an RB2 for two weeks in a row now…and it might be three in a row Week 17 in cold weather vs. bottom 10 run defense Atlanta.
-- The Patriots did their normal offense…run the ball a lot and play action passes to so-so results. My only note here is – their Week 17 against Jacksonville looks like a good matchup but people calling for a Mac Jones (14-32 for 145 yards, 0 TDs/2 INTs) QB1 week are reaching a little bit. He’s not that type of QB, and it’s not that type of offense. It’s not impossible, but I’d bet against it.
Mac Jones is not radically better or is about as good as Davis Mills and Trevor Lawrence…and all three don’t have half the talent Zach Wilson has throwing the ball, nor a-third of the athletic gifts of Trey Lance.
Snap Counts of Interest:
61 = N Harry
48 = Meyers
30 = Bourne
34 = Bolden
31 = Dam Harris
55 = H Henry
21 = Jonnu
54 = Singletary
26 = Moss
67 = McKenzie
65 = Diggs
65 = Sanders
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Texans 40, Chargers 29
A total embarrassment by the Chargers…that could’ve been avoided. Two things really stood out to me here that the Chargers did to themselves. Not that they would have shined if they made two specific changes in this game, but maybe they would have won.
(1) They have transitioned All-American, 1st-round draft pick 2020 Kenneth Murray from interior LB, where he fits, to now trying to make him an edge rusher.
Murray has no clue of what he’s doing at edge rusher. About every time he was in this game the Texans ran it his way…to/through wide-open holes. The Texans left tackle had his easiest day of blocking ever. Murray is a great prospect, I think, but he looked like a total idiot trying to pass rush. He’s a linebacker not an edge rusher. His career is evaporating before his very eyes. Why the Chargers staff doesn’t see this is beyond me.
(2) Even worse, because it’s been an all-year problem – Jared Cook is killing this offense. They insist on him as the lead TE in the passing game, and he’s so slow (age has caught up) that he can’t get to the spots he’s supposed to be fast enough, can’t beat coverage enough, and does nothing with the ball after the catch. Remember his twisted body drop in the KC game/loss for an easy (lost) TD, but his tin man body couldn’t get in place to make the easy catch? He had a few plays like that in the KC game that hurt the team in low key/subtle ways.
In this game, in the 4th-quarter with LAC trying to speed their offense down two scores with only minutes remaining…Herbert threw him a pass on a medium route where Cook was running ahead of coverage (shock) but then Cook inexplicably slowed-stopped/sat down on the route he was running open, as Herbert fired a laser to where Cook was going if he stayed in-stride, but Cook had stopped, the ball sailed right to a DB 5+ yards behind the play for an easy pick-six, and squashed the ballgame.
I thought Brandon Staley would be the star coach of this 2021 rookie crop…he’s turning out to be just another guy who really loves football but has no clue on personnel and keeps making the same mistakes over and over and over every week – my guess is he is afraid of the veteran players and non confrontational with his staff (just a pure guess). He’s supposed to be a defensive guru, and yet their defense gets worse every week. His O-C is killing the offense…how do you ruin Justin Herbert? By trying to ‘get Jared Cook going’ for starters…as Mike Williams is a decoy/blocker. Josh Palmer is an impact WR for them right now…and he can’t even start unless COVID forces it…and then he barely gets the ball enough.
Everything that could be done wrong seems to be done wrong by the Chargers right now. This loss was devastating to their playoff chances. They have to win out to get in, lose this week to Denver and they are probably cooked for a wild card. It didn’t have to come to this. They’re doing it to themselves.
Houston (4-11) took the gift from LAC and are now on a two-game win streak…which probably gives David Culley another year. A ‘win’ that is a ‘loss’ for the Texans future, but I have to say – the Texans have played hard enough under Culley to warrant another year…and Davis Mills is turning out to be better than most of the high pick rookie QBs, so in the grand scheme of all coaches suck anyway…why not give Culley one more year? He was put into an impossible situation to begin with. He hasn’t been any worse than Brandon Staley…just Culley tried to push Tyrod Taylor, while Staley has the safety net of Justin Herbert.
Cully getting Houston to 4 wins is more impressive than Staley coaching his team down to 8 wins, currently.
LAC is (8-7) and plays a do-or-die game with Denver Week 17…and I think they’re in trouble of getting knocked off and kicked out of what should have been an easy playoff season. The Chargers have to win out to get to the playoffs now. A lot of what Brandon Staley has as a leader of men plays out the next two weeks of games he should win, he must win.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- No need to do anymore Justin Jackson (11-64-2, 8-98-0/9) FF victory laps. The ‘stars aligned’ for the big FF week…and now they don’t, for JJax. Austin Ekeler (DNP) is back, and they’ll do a 70/30 split Ekeler/JJax and that’s that. Fun while it lasted for JJ.
This RB run we are on through the FF playoffs…it’s a mental note of how, in most typical-sized leagues, the RB position does not warrant the preseason/redraft hysteria that we all give it. Whatever breaks at RB, you can fix it. Having the dominant WRs and high-end QB gets you by until you get the RB slot figured out week-to-week. …and just when you think you got the RB position settled for your FF team, you don’t…so stop being paranoid about it. You can’t tame it. You just close your eyes and ‘use the force’. Do the best you can at the start of the season, and know we’ll fix it by the middle and end with guys who weren’t even a thought in August during your redrafts…because there’s always options as they all get injured, COVID, stuck behind broken O-Lines, have 3rd-stringers come in due to injury and outperform the original NFL starters in September. You need an RBBC not CMC.
-- Hell, you could even get a big week out of Rex bygawd Burkhead (22-149-2, 2-0-0/2). Did I mention how bad the Chargers run defense is? Houston has not been able to take advantage of any good matchups all season with an F- minus (by us) graded O-Line. Except here, the RB group combined for 35 carries for 190 yards and a 5.3 ypc clip.
Javonte Williams will have a field day against them in Week 17.
You don’t even need an RBBC or CMC…you just need to have your RB with matchups against L-A-C.
…or Houston.
I would not trust Rex is going to do a repeat of this output against SF this week.
-- Three starts in a row for Davis Mills (21-27 for 254 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT) since taking the starting job from Tyrod Taylor. In that span, he’s posted a (2-1) record with 5 TDs/1 INT. Mills v. SF Week 17 isn’t a terrible matchup.
-- Josh Palmer (5-42-1/6) had a so-so game here, salvaged by a late garbage-time TD. However, the tape of him…the simple plays he made, the movement after the catch…it’s stunning the Chargers aren’t starting him and getting him the ball. However, seeing what the LAC staff has done with decisions all year…it’s actually not stunning at all.
Palmer + Herbert into the future is going to be a good thing. Just not reliable Week 17 with Big Mike and Guyton back.
-- Side note…you wanna know how bad this loss was? Houston crushed LAC without three of their best defenders (Greenard-Grugier-Hill-Lopez) active (out with COVID).
This loss and the Bills loss to Jacksonville are the ugliest losses of 2021…and this one may take the cake with the COVID inactives for Houston.
Snap Counts of Interest:
60 = Palmer
55 = Keenan
45 = Jason Moore
39 = J Cook
22 = Stv Anderson
15 = McKitty
42 = Rex B
24 = Royce Freeman
01 = Jaylen Samuels
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Cowboys 56, Washington 14
This might possibly have been the most one-sided beatdown I've watched all year. Washington was never in this game, not even for a second and they knew it. By now I'm sure everyone has seen the clip of Jonathan Allen taking a swing at Daron Payne. It was that kind of game.
Washington needed to win this game to have any chance at the playoffs however remote. Instead, they are going to be pondering off-season changes after a promising season got derailed by injuries and ineffective play. The strangest part of their season has been the total lack of the dominant defense we saw emerging late last season. It seemed like things were improving the past month or two, but this game was a real wake up call that there are serious issues to work out.
Dallas, meanwhile, is feeling pretty good about themselves. They are on a four game win streak and just demolished whatever was left of Washington. They've already sewn up a division title and playoff spot. Now it's just a question of how high a seed they can get. If they go in this week and pound the weakened Cardinals into submission, then with a little luck and a GB loss they might find a way into the top seed which would be huge for their Superbowl aspirations. Lose to the Cardinals and old doubts may start to creep in.
It's easy to get caught up in the idea that Dallas is going to roll over Arizona, but I wouldn't be so sure. The Cardinals are still one of the most talented and dangerous teams in the league when they are playing well, and no offense to the Cowboys, but their recent schedule does not exactly strike fear into the hearts of men.
Who is the best team they've beaten all season? The Chargers? The Patriots? Not exactly a ringing endorsement. I'm not trying to suggest they are frauds, but I do think expectations are getting a little wild. This looks like a strong but not dominant team to me. I think GB is better, and if the Cowboys have to go into the blistering cold of Wisconsin I don't think they are going to fare well.
Fantasy Notes
--So what caused the resurgence in the Dallas passing game? Mostly it was because Washington has collapsed in the secondary while dealing with injuries. William Jackson, Landon Collins, and Jamin Davis were all out here. It left Jeremy Reaves and Darryl Roberts to get picked on over and over.
Since week 9, when Dak returned from his injury, he's thrown for more than 250 yards only 3 times, against the Falcons, Raiders, and now Washington. In his other 5 games, he's been hovering around 225 yards or so each game. However, his opponents in those five games were the Broncos, Chiefs, Saints, Giants, and Washington, all very tough pass defenses if you include Washington a few weeks ago when they were healthy.
I'm not worried overly much about Dallas's passing attack. Look for them to have another muted game against the Cardinals this week but then bounce back against the Eagles in week 18 (if the starters are playing). In the playoffs I think we'll see Dak up closer to the 250-300 range most games except against the Packers.
*RC NOTE: I’m a bit more optimistic on the Dallas passing game Wk17 vs. ARI…in part because the Cardinals defense, especially their secondary is falling apart in part due to injury. In the past two weeks Jared Goff and then Carson Wentz had no problems with the once vaunted Arizona pass defense. Something has changed, and with Dallas likely getting Tyron Smith back Week 17…Dak & Friends might be alright Week 17.
--Antonio Gibson has been dealing with nagging foot, shin, and ankle issues all season, but until now he hasn't missed any time. That might change this week as his latest injury is something with his hip and he wasn't at practice on Thursday. Owners may be tempted to assume Gibson will power through this injury the same as he's done all year, but I think this time might be different. It seems like there might be too many issues for him to work through now, and with the Washington season effectively done, it's entirely possible Gibson gets shut down here.
Even if he plays against Philly this week, I would be very careful starting him (assuming he gets cleared). The Eagles have been crushing the run game recently, and it's very likely they'll get an early lead which will prevent Washington from running the ball. If you have other options I would avoid Gibson and pray that so many things will work out right for him to have a good game.
--RC and I both really like Ricky Seals-Jones as a TE1 hopeful against the Eagles this week. The Eagles aren't a great pass defense, but they are particularly weak to TE's, and RSJ is a pretty solid option. He had a bad time against the Cowboys, but so did the entire offense and eventually he was just benched along with most of the other starters.
It's not a guarantee, but if you need a streamer at TE for your championship game, this is likely the best matchup you're going to find.
--If you've read my stuff at all the past few years you'll know that I am a huge fan of Terry McLaurin. I think he's possibly the most underrated receiver in the league, and a large part of it is because he plays with absolute crap QB's. It's the Allen Robinson problem all over again.
McLaurin has had a few splash games throughout the season where he came down with some 50-50 balls, but by and large he's been a huge disappointment for fantasy.
Over the first 7 games of the season McLaurin was averaging 10 targets per game with three 100 yard games and 4 TD's.
Over the last 8 games he's averaged a shade under 6 targets per game with one 100 yard game and 1 TD.
As much as I like him, McLaurin has officially fallen into WR3 territory and I don't see any change coming, not with Heinicke at QB...
--Speaking of Taylor Heinicke (7-22 for 122, 1 TD/2 INT's), why does anyone keep pushing this guy as some kind of viable option for fantasy or real life?
He's not. He never has been. I mean, he's not terrible like the way a Sam Darnold is. He's not totally inept. But he's backup material. He runs around a little bit and can complete a few passes, but there's just no upside with this guy.
He's only cracked 245 yards 6 times all season, and in those games he averaged 38 attempts per game. In all his other games he's averaged 26.5 attempts per game.
He's only thrown for 2+ TD's five times all season.
He's only run for 50+ yards ONCE all season and he only has ONE rushing TD on the season.
So he's not a great passer and he's not a great runner...why would I want him for fantasy then? Why would I want him as the QB of my real football team?
IDP Notes
--Jeremy Reaves (11 tackles) has averaged 11.5 tackles per game at safety since he became a starter the last two weeks. It's not because he's good, but it's working for fantasy and if he's starting again this week he should have a fantastic game against a run-heavy Philly team. Lots of tackles to be had on this suddenly leaky Washington defense.
Snap Counts of Interest
42 = Elliott
25 = Pollard
54 = Lamb
52 = Cooper
48 = Gallup
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Rams 30, Vikings 23
This game was close/a one score win in the end, but it never felt like it was close. The Rams took a quick lead, pushed it to two scores. The Vikings would cut it to one score every so often, then the Rams would push it right back to a two-score lead. It was 30-20 Rams with two minutes left. The Vikings took a field goal with 0:32 left to go for the score-now-onsides-next prayer…but it failed, and the Rams walked out with a big win. The Rams did not play a great game, but they’re better than sloppy/choppy Minnesota.
The Rams are now (11-4) with a good chance to win the NFC West from the collapsing Cardinals, but with little chance to get a #1 seed. I could see the Rams winning out (at BAL, SF) and winning the West. I could see the Rams losing out and limping in as a wild card.
The Vikings are now (7-8) and their playoff hopes are very narrow…they need to win out and for the Eagles to lose out to have any chance. It’s not off the table, but it’s highly unlikely. If the Vikings lose to Green Bay Week 17 (likely) then I would not be shocked if Mike Zimmer was fired Monday to allow the Vikings to start the interview process.
Speaking of Minnesota at Green Bay Week 17… The current weather forecast for that game is 5 degrees/’feels like -9 degrees. I guess it actually gives the Vikings a better chance at the upset, but it’s not going to be good for upside FF production, that’s for sure. We will get into all that in the next section.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Perhaps the biggest news concerning these two teams heading into Week 17 is the Darrell Henderson injury (goes on IR) spawning a possible Cam Akers activation for Week 17. I didn’t believe they’d do it, but then I saw Akers practiced in full on Wednesday and now I’m not taking it as so crazy.
I haven’t a clue whether Akers will be active for Week 17…and then if he is, I don’t know if he’d start…be there for emergency…split the time with Michel. I have no idea. Sean McVay will keep it close to the vest and leave the opponent guessing…as will the FF owners with Sony Michel (27-131-1, 1-4-0/1) and/or Cam Akers be left to guess.
If I have to make a projection, and I do, I’d say Michel for 70%+ of the touches. Akers for emergency use and maybe some ‘blow the rust off’ touches. I’d be worried about my Michel start and not confident enough to really play Akers – unless McVay comes out blathering that Akers is clear and starting and he’s excited.
-- Matt Stafford (21-37 for 197 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs) is perplexing…but that’s been his whole career. He plays so well for a week or two or three, and you’re thinking he’s the best…then in a favorable matchup or big spot on national TV, he throws a bunch of bad/inexplicable picks.
In his last 7 games, Stafford has a (4-3) record with 14 TDs/9 INTs and one 300+ yard game in that span…after five of his first 8 games as a Ram with 300+ yards passing. As the schedule gets tougher, Stafford’s effectiveness falls…shocking, huh?
I’d worry about his Week 17 at Baltimore, outside in December…but the weather will be unseasonably mild, and the threat of rain is reducing…and the Ravens have all their CBs dying off with injury (there’s a reason Burrow dropped 500+ on them last week).
-- If Stafford is going to be good for Week 17, then the receivers will go with him – and the Rams should attack the wounded secondary of Baltimore right from the opening bell.
Odell Beckham (4-37-1/8) is going to score another TD Week 17…he has scored a TD in four of his last 5 Rams games.
The Ravens are in such a bad way that even Van Jefferson (1-6-0/6) deserves Week 17 Flex consideration over better WRs who are stuck playing in frigid temps this week elsewhere.
Tyler Higbee (5-41-0/6) has a good upside in all this, as the Ravens have been one of the worst defenses in the league against the TE all season.
-- There’s nothing new I can tell you about the skills or target trends of the Vikings receivers at this point, no new news from this game. The biggest news affecting the Vikings offense is the weather in Green Bay on SNF Week 17.
Cold beyond belief. It’s going to hinder the offenses...it’s gonna create problems gripping, throwing, catching passes…the further downfield the worse. It’s not going to halt it all…but it will put quite a lid on upside, and it will create some underwhelming outputs.
Dalvin Cook is back for Week 17, and he may run the ball 25-30+ times in the mess…with a few screens, swings, shorter passes.
Justin Jefferson (8-116-0/12) is unbencable if he were playing on crutches, but he very well could have a 3-35-0/9 game Week 17 at the wrong time for you (or right time if you’re opposing).
K.J. Osborn (5-68-1/7) will start in place of Adam Thielen. He’ll see 4-8 targets and who knows how effective he will be off that. I like KJO sleeper hopes going in a dome more than the frozen tundra.
Tyler Conklin (4-41-0/5) isn’t 100% going into this game (hamstring) and he faces all the frozen aspects of the weather on his performance.
Kirk Cousins (27-38 for 315 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) will be throwing in the bitter cold against a very good+ Green Bay secondary. You have to think more like 1 passing TD in this game than 2…more under 250 yards than a 300+ event for sure. Maybe under 200 yards passing.
-- It’s gonna be cold for MIN-GB, so side note…are you really confident in Greg Joseph (3/3 FG, 2/2 XP) having a big game? Maybe he gets 2-4 short FG attempts (which means MIN is moving the ball all over GB???) but do you think he’s going to get any distance kicks in that weather? He’ll be kicking a half a brick ball.
Joseph has been one of the top FF kickers of 2021, in part due to his 50+ yard shots this season…they likely get taken away here…and if MIN gets down and it’s 4th & short in GB territory, are they kicking FGs…or ‘going for it’?
-- The Rams-DST has been ‘meh’ lately. They’ve allowed 23 or more points in five of their last 7 games. They held down JAX and SEA and gave up a lot of ‘stuff’ to SF-GB-TEN-ARI-MIN. Unless they face a garbage team, it’s not a slam-dunk start. The Ravens will have Tyler Huntley back this week (Lamar likely out)…he’s probably good enough there to push for 20+ points vs. LAR with his scrambling around and decent passer ways.
The Rams-DST isn’t bad vs. Huntley Week 17, but it’s not an obvious homerun.
Snap Counts of Interest:
68 = Kupp
67 = Van J
64 = OBJ
63 = Michel
05 = DHendo
02 = Funk
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Raiders 17, Broncos 13
A dull game from two of the dullest teams in the entire league. Both teams would love to run the ball 50 times and grind out a 3 point win with their defense, and that's basically what we got here, an old-school coach's wet dream.
The score was 7-3 Raiders for most of the first half, but right before halftime the Broncos got 10 points off of Vegas turnovers including a near pick 6 after Bradley Chubb snuck out on a Derek Carr screen pass and nearly took it to the house.
Other than that 30 seconds though, the Raiders essentially dominated this game start to finish. Doesn't mean they are suddenly a good team. They are just less bad than Denver.
For Denver the issues are clear. 1) This is a very bad offensive line. They were getting absolutely dominated by the Raiders. 2) Melvin Gordon is done, cooked, finished. He is beyond awful at this point. It's been obvious all year to anyone with eyes that Javonte Williams should be not just the starter but the only back here. Gordon can't hold a candle to Williams and it's a massive wasted opportunity every time he takes a carry. And 3) Whoever is running the offense is an idiot because Gordon should not be taking carries and the play-calling is just terrible.
The Broncos scored 3 offensive points on their own in this game and it was not an accident. Let me describe a typical series for them.
1st and 10: Gordon run for -1 yard.
2nd and 11: Lock straight drop back with no play action, drops a dime on a WR who drops it
3rd and 11: Lock drops back against with no play action and is immediately pressured and takes a sack
This kind of thing was happening almost every single series. It was absolutely pathetic to watch. This entire Denver staff needs to go. They are simply too conservative and not doing their players any favors. This was a must-win game to try and make the playoffs and the coaching staff basically threw the game because they are so committed to a vanilla passing game and Melvin Gordon.
The Broncos fall to 7-8 with games against the Chargers and Chiefs remaining. It's theoretically possible that they could win out if the Chiefs have locked up the #1 seed and sit everyone week 18, but they would still need a host of other teams to all lose out to make the playoffs. It's not happening. Denver just blew their chances here. I have a feeling things are going to look very different with this team in 2022.
The Raiders manage to stay alive for the playoffs at 8-7 with games against the Colts and Chargers left. If the Colts are missing Carson Wentz that's huge for Vegas, and the Chargers have proven themselves to be quite beatable. If the Raiders can somehow win out to get to 10 wins they have a good shot at a wildcard spot because they'll have tiebreaks over the Colts, Chargers, and Dolphins, their most likely competitors for those final spots.
Fantasy Notes
--Drew Lock (15-22 for 153 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) looked alright here, something RC and I both noted in the preseason. He was really held back by his offensive line, drops, and a terrible game plan, but within all that chaos he played controlled ball, didn't make a single bad decision that I saw, and delivered accurate and catchable passes...that were dropped.
I would really like to see what Lock could do with better pieces around him and Gordon not constantly putting him in 3rd and long situations. There are tools to work with here. At times he looks like a lesser version of Josh Allen out there with the big arm and mobility. I'm not playing this up either. Let Javonte start, give him a respectable offensive line and not Pat Shurmur at offensive coordinator and I think we'd see Lock very differently.
Teddy Bridgewater still has not been medically cleared, so it seems unlikely that he'll be playing this week. There's no doubt in my mind anymore that Lock should be starting over him though and gives the Broncos the best chance to win.
--You just have to laugh at the Melvin Gordon (7-(-4)-0) stat line. It really was that bad. It wasn't all his fault as Javonte Williams (7-12-1) didn't fare much better, but where Gordon was getting a yard or two on his best runs, Javonte was breaking 2-3 tackles and getting positive yardage after getting swarmed in the backfield every play. There's no comparison between them.
Javonte still has hopes against the Chargers this week. If Rex Burkhead can rush for 140 yards then Javonte can do alright as well. I think he could be considered a RB1.5 or so this week. No Denzel Perryman and Maxx Crosby to ruin his day.
--The Zay Jones (6-50-0/8) WR 2.5 party continues. He's good for this kind of stat line just about every week now. This is a ball-control offense and he's the best non-Renfrow option the Raiders have to dump short passes to.
IDP Notes
--LB Jonas Griffith (13 tackles) is really coming on strong. An All-American performer for Div II Indiana State, he was an UDFA that signed with the 49'ers in 2020. Griffith bounced around a little before landing back on the SF practice squad.
During the 2021 preseason, Griffith was 3rd on the 49'ers in tackles while leading special teams in tackles. He even stood out to me as I made note of him during the first preseason game against the Chiefs:
“Another player around the ball an awful lot was 2nd year linebacker Jonas Griffith. He's got good size and was moving around well, registering 4 tackles and a couple of pass breakups including a near interception.”
George Paton and the Broncos made a trade for Griffith, presumably to help out with special teams as they were struggling with that at the time. I highly doubt Paton had any inkling that Griffith would be able to help out at LB, but if he did then kudos.
Griffith played his first 23 snaps of the season against Detroit two weeks ago racking up 5 tackles quickly, but injuries forced him into more snaps the following week against the Bengals and he responded with 9 tackles on about 80% of the defensive snaps.
After piling up 13 tackles here and looking pretty good doing it, it seems clear that Griffith has earned more playing time for the remainder of the season.
To my eye he's a fairly decent athlete if not spectacular. But much like his former teammate in SF, Azeez Al-Shaair, he just finds his way to the ball somehow, exactly like both guys did in college. I thought he did a little better job in coverage than in the run game, but when he's protected from blockers he does a really good job knifing through trash to make the tackle.
What 2022 holds for him we'll have to see as there are multiple more highly drafted guys ostensibly ahead of him when healthy, but his play may force the Broncos to take a look at that. In 2021 though he'll likely finish up the season as one of the starting ILB's and I like his chances to finish strong.
Snap Counts of Interest
38 = Fant
14 = Okwuegbunam
52 = Zay Jones
40 = Renfrow
36 = Jackson
