- FantasyFootballMetrics

2025 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings Top 300 (with IDPs) v2.0 update

2025 NFL Draft Scouting Report: WR-b Isaac TeSlaa, Arkansas

2025 Falcons Output Analysis: with Cousins v. with Penix

: Ross Jacobs; FFM; 15 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Raiders 35, Chargers 32 (By Ross Jacobs)

Without a doubt one of the wildest, craziest games I've ever seen and it came with huge playoff implications in prime time as the last regular season game of the year. The NFL couldn't have asked for a better game.

In fact, it was so crazy and the situation so sensitive that Twitter was awash with people wondering if the game was rigged. That's how nuts this was.

With 5:00 minutes left the Chargers trailed 29-14. They had been mostly dominated by the Raiders all game and things looked bleak.

But Justin Herbert would not be denied and put the team on his back as impressively as any QB I've ever seen. His receivers were dog tired, could barely get open, dropping passes left and right. The offense would fail for three straight plays and then on 4th and forever Herbert would throw a laser beam right into a receiver with two guys blanketing him. He did this over and over. I have no idea how many 4th downs the Chargers converted but it was a huge number.

LA tied the game up as time expired and the game went into OT. Keep in mind that at this point, one of the big talking points was that if the game ended in a tie then both teams would make the playoffs and the Steelers would be left out. A few minutes prior Pittsburgh looked safe, but after LAC tied the game suddenly things got a lot more interesting. Would the two teams just play it safe and go for the tie?

It didn't start that way. Both of them came out determined to win and the Raiders were the first to strike with a FG. The Chargers tied it up on another miraculous drive and it was down to the Raiders with the ball just minutes left on the clock.

LV began running the ball every play milking the clock and the Chargers couldn't stop it. It looked like the Raiders might be willing to just run the clock out, but for whatever reason Brandon Staley called a timeout with about 30 seconds left on the clock.

There was no point to the move. He had no time to get the ball back and he had to know the Raiders were going to run the ball again either to set up the field goal or just run the clock out. Staley could have just left it alone and perhaps the Raiders wouldn't have attempted the field goal. But maybe not. We just don't know despite rampant speculation that they would have.

Regardless, after the timeout LV did indeed run the ball and then booted the winning field goal as time expired.

In a massive game, on prime time tv, your playoff hopes on the line, the Chargers played a miserable game and Staley failed in a way that won't soon be forgotten. They lost to an inferior team but one that was tougher and more disciplined. Without Herbert they wouldn't have even had a chance.

But to me out of all the things that the Chargers did wrong, the most egregious was watching their RT get straight up abused by Maxx Crosby literally every snap and they didn't adjust for it until the final minutes of the game.

The entire offense has been a mess to my eyes all year. Yes, they scored a lot of points, but it could have been so much better. I don't like all these stupid short routes just because the OC learned them from Sean Payton. Herbert is the best deep ball thrower in the entire league and you're hamstringing him every time you make him dump it short. I hate that Mike Williams gets mostly ignored until crunch time. I hate that they are so slow to make adjustments to what the defense is doing.

The OC needs to be replaced quite frankly, but they won't do it and I believe it's going to cost this team over the next couple years. Yet another brilliant young QB wasting years because coaches refuse to get their heads out of their asses.

The Chargers are too talented to fail badly in 2022. Herbert won't allow it. But how high is this team going to go? I have multiple questions about their approach and I'll remain skeptical until I see differently.

For the Raiders it's been a storybook season. They started off hot, tanked for a while, lost their head coach to a scandal, lost a WR to a drunk driving incident, lost a corner to an abuse allegation, and somehow rallied behind their interim head coach and slugged their way to 4 straight wins and a playoff berth.

All credit to them for hanging tough and fighting through so much adversity.

Unfortunately, this storybook tale likely ends in the first round of the playoffs. They are a scrappy, hard-fighting team for sure. They give everything they've got every week. But they just are not very talented and it looks like too big of a hill to claim to make a deep playoff run.

They now have to fly out to cold Cincinnati to play a rested and very tough team after spending every last bit of emotional energy trying to close out the Chargers. It's not a great recipe. I am a little weary of writing this team completely off though as they've shown how tough they are. I wouldn't surprise me to see them pull this one upset. It won't last though and at some point they will fall to a better team.

Fantasy Notes

--Did the Chargers finally, finally figure out that Big Mike is their best receiver? Maybe. He finished with 9-119-1 on 17 targets compared to only 8 for Keenan Allen. It wouldn't surprise me if they tried to bring him back next year and make him the 1A and Allen the 1B. That's how it should have been all year, but maybe we were just a little early.

--Another change I'd like to see next year is more time for Josh Palmer over Jalen Guton. Palmer did actually outsnap Guyton here although it was close. I don't think they can hold him down much longer. He's the future at WR for the Chargers, possibly as the #2 behind Mike.

--Hunter Renfrow finished as the ppr WR10 on the season and WR16 in points per game. It's a phenomenal accomplishment for a guy that was ignored by the masses until the middle of the season. We covered his rise early in the year when everyone else was still on the Ruggs train, and we also covered his fall these past four games as Zay Jones ascended.

That's the part getting lost in the Renfrow feel-good story. He tailed off hard the past four games. Over that span he averaged a mere 5.5 targets per game for 4 catches, 40 yards, and 1.0 TD's per game. Renfrow transformed from ppr monster in the mold of Julian Edelman into an uncoverable goalline specialist. Go figure.

--As Renfrow fell in importance to the offense, Jones was rising. His last four games he averaged 9 targets for 6 catches, 61 yards, and 0 TD's, essentially taking over the chain-moving role that Renfrow had filled for most of the year.

Jones is a talent in the mold of Diontae Johnson. He has great feet off the snap and a talent for accelerating at the last second to create separation. Neither guy is very big or particularly athletic, but they both know how to play receiver in a way that transcends their physical abilities.

Jones's early career got derailed in Buffalo due to some injuries and personal issues, but he's finally getting things turned around in LV.

--I have no interest in Bryan Edwards anymore. They've shown me no interest in him at all.

So which guy are we interested in for 2022? I'm going to have to think more about this, and I'd be curious to hear RC's answer, but my gut tells me I want in on Jones more than Renfrow. He's the better talent and the guy that Carr transitioned to late. I bet that carries over into next year. If Jones becomes Carr's Diontae that could be pretty sweet for ppr.

*RC NOTE: Let’s see if Zay returns, first. He’s a free agent at just the right time. But if Carr and Bisaccia are back, and it’s basically the same team/staff/offense – I’ll probably take Renfrow but I won’t rule out the right answer being Zay (if he’s back).

--All year long I heard about how great Darren Waller is and how much the offense was missing him blah blah blah. And then he comes out here and puts up 2 catches for 22 yards on 9 targets. He had that one monster game the first game of the season and everyone latched onto that as proof of his immortal status, but he only had 2 other games over 70 yards the rest of the year.

I was a fan until this year, but something is up with him. I've seen too many defenders shutting him down. Maybe he's been slowed by the injuries he was dealing with? I don't know but I'm definitely not as high on him for 2022 now.

IDP Notes

--What a great game from Uchenna Nwosu (7 tackles, 1 sack, 4 tfl, 1 pd). He was causing so much trouble for the LV offensive line, but his performance was kind of lost by all the attention Crosby got for destroying Storm Norton.

He's been a rotational pass rusher most of the year, but his snaps have been trending up recently and he finally seems to be delivering on the promise he showed as a 2nd round pick in 2018. Not the biggest guy, he's a very quick, active rusher that tries to beat people with speed. Sometimes guys like that take some time to figure out how to get by very athletic NFL blockers. I'll be watching him next year to see if he's ready to make a bigger jump.

Snap Counts of Interest

82 = Allen

67 = Williams

56 = Palmer

50 = Guyton

71 = Zay

56 = Edwards

51 = Renfrow

: Ross Jacobs; FFM; 14 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Bills 27, Jets 10 (By Ross Jacobs)

The score looks like a blowout, but this game was 13-10 in the 4th quarter. The Bills managed to put it away shortly after and the win was never really in doubt, but you have to give the Jets some credit for keeping it close that long.

The last four weeks we've seen some good growth from the Jets. They hung in with the Dolphins and Bills and nearly beat the Bucs. I do think there is some reason for optimism with them the next couple years. They have a decent foundation in theory with Zach Wilson, Becton, Tucker, and several solid players on defense. Fill in the gaps with a few more smart free agent pickups, hit on a couple draft picks, and you've got yourself a competitive team.

Buffalo comes into the playoffs as a quiet #3 seed. There was a lot of hype about them early in the year before a series of losses, including an embarrassing one to the Jags, sent them tumbling down the ranks. They closed out the season strong with four straight wins, but three of those were against some of the worst teams in the league, the Panthers, Falcons, and Jets.

Their lone really good win this year was an early season smackdown of the Chiefs. They've lost to most of the other good teams they've played although that's only a few teams really. Honestly they've had a rather pathetic schedule looking back on it, and it's a wonder they only won 11 games.

So are they a fake good team? It's really hard to say. They've mostly destroyed the bad teams, and it's possible they just had bad outings against better teams like the Colts and Bucs. I have noticed that physical run-first teams seem to give them lots of problems, and quite frankly McDermott seems to fold in big moments.

I think they are as good as any team in the AFC and could absolutely win the Super Bowl if things fall right, but I doubt I'll be betting on them. I think teams like the Titans and Packers will destroy them.

If they win, it will be because Josh Allen goes full Superman and carries them on his back. I've seen more shaky moments from him this year than I expected. Not sure if it's him or the offense. He has some moments of sheer brilliance so I think maybe he's pressing knowing that he's got to carry the team, a lot like what Mahomes has dealt with this year.

One thing the team could do to help him is let him run more. That would open things up a lot if defenses had to fear him taking off more often.

Fantasy Notes

--It's been a rough first year for Zach Wilson, but that was to be expected. We all knew he was going to a terrible team with no wide receivers and not much in the way of blocking. When he lost Becton for the year there was no hope.

It's far too early to write him off, but I just can't get fully on board with Wilson the way I did with Burrow and Herbert. Wilson has too many things working against him in my opinion.

He's smaller and is already getting banged up far too often for one. He also had the misfortune of being one of the media's hated QB's. I'll never understand how the crowd decides who that guy is going to be, but I know it's Wilson and they'll stop at nothing to tear him down. He also has the misfortune of playing for the Jets. Bad teams stay bad for a reason, and this franchise has shown no ability to change for a long, long time now.

I believe in Wilson's talent no doubt. He could be a very good NFL QB under the right circumstances. But I also don't believe he has transcendent talent like some of the other young QB's. He needs help, and I don't think he's likely to get it.

Maybe things break right and he has a Goff-like resurgence for a few years, but much like Goff, eventually the media will come for him when he falters for even a moment and they'll get league opinion of him shot to hell if it's not already.

I think he's worth holding for another year in deep dynasty leagues if you've got the space, but there are interesting QB's coming into the league every year now. 20 years ago Wilson would have been special, a top 5 talent. These days he's just another pretty good player among many. I don't think he's worth chasing too hard. Besides, his value isn't going higher anytime soon, so we can reassess next preseason and you'll be able to grab him for pennies then if we think a breakout is coming.

--Well it only took the Bills three years to figure out what RC and I have been saying this entire time. Devin Singletary is their best back and it's not even close. 5 TD's in his last four games with at least 1 TD in all each and over 80 yards in three of them. His one down game was against the Patriots where he only got 12 carries but made up for it with 5 catches for another 40 yards. He's averaged 19 carries a game over this stretch.

The man is on fire, and it appears the Bills have finally figured out how to run the ball. Unfortunately, they draw the Patriots again in the first round and I'd expect Belichick to clamp down on the run game again. He'll try to force Allen to stay in the pocket and beat him through the air. Could be a good environment for check downs to Singletary though as we saw last time they played.

Assuming they get past NE and KC handles business with the Steelers, those two teams will match up next, and that looks like a great place for Singletary to have a big game. Do not sleep on Singletary in these playoffs.

--Dawson Knox had another good year, but I don't see any signs of him taking that next leap into the elite TE group. He's pretty good but still a little shaky with his hands at times, and Allen still doesn't go to him often enough to push big numbers. He lives and dies with the TD's. Looks like a TE1 again in 2022 to me but more in the 8-12 range.

--Gabriel Davis made the jump to #2 WR for Buf a few weeks ago and we talked about the transition at the time. He's solid enough, not my favorite receiver, but Allen seems to love him especially around the endzone.

The connection was a bit off here and Davis couldn't seem to shake the sticky Jets corners, thus only 3 catches on 14 targets. That sounds damning that he couldn't beat the Jets, but as I've been saying for quite a while now, I've been very impressed with how tightly the Jets corners stick to people. It takes some brilliant throws to beat them.

I think Davis is fine and could be in for a very nice playoff run. In 2022 he might end up being a great value pick late as a WR2-3 hopeful that people price as a WR4-5.

--I want to see what changes the Jets make in the off-season, but I'm going to be very interested in snagging Michael Carter as a potential sneaky RB1-1.5. We saw what he could do earlier in the year in ppr when Mike White was tossing him so many dumpoff passes. If Wilson could figure out how to do that Carter has some discount-Ekeler ability (discount because the offense won't be scoring that many TD's). The great thing about Carter is he can be part of a rotation and it won't matter so long as he gets his catches.

--Denzel Mims led the team in WR snaps this week after they had been growing for a few weeks now. I still see no signs that he's going to do anything with this team. They don't seem interested in getting him the ball at all. He looks good moving around so I don't know what the problem is. Bet he reunites with Rhule and the Panthers before long.

IDP Notes

--One rookie I noticed a lot this year was Greg Rousseau. He has quietly played a large amount of snaps and put together a very nice rookie campaign. I've seen nothing to suggest he's a future star pass rusher, but he fits in perfectly with the rest of the Buffalo defense. He's a big, strong guy that does his job, stays in his lane, and pushes the pocket.

He's probably never going to put up a ton of sacks or get much recognition, especially playing for Buffalo, but he's a perfect role player for a defense that is greater than the sum of its parts.

--Another guy that fits that mold for this defense is Ed Oliver. I did actually expect Oliver to be a star when he first entered the league, but it just hasn't happened. I thought he could be the next best thing to Aaron Donald.

No such luck but Oliver is another Buffalo soldier in the middle. He does his job and that motor never stops. He popped up here on the stat sheet with 4 tackles and 1.5 sacks, but that's more a function of a bad Jets offensive line and Wilson trying to do too much than anything Oliver was doing.

Snap Counts of Interest

75 = Davis

67 = Diggs

42 = Beasley

22 = McKenzie

62 = Singletary

18 = Moss

35 = Mims

34 = Jeff Smith

28 = Cole

24 = Carter

15 = Ty Johnson

10 = Coleman

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 14 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Dolphins 33, Patriots 24

A must-win game for NE to try and win the AFC East, and they flopped. Not a crime…going to Miami late season is always tough for opponents as players ‘partake’ in the Miami life and also may not be totally adapted to the change in climate. Whatever the reason, the Patriots got beat off the jump and could never really catch up.

The big news involving anything from these two teams was the somewhat surprise firing of Brian Flores soon after. Back-to-back winning seasons, and then fired. No matter what you think of Flores (and I’m not a fan)…what is any coach to do to make anyone happy to retain jobs as head coaches? Flores, to me, is a terrible head coach (with his worst characteristic being offensive personnel management) and I wouldn’t want him as my team’s HC, but in the big picture of things…he did ‘win’ here.

That’s how you know someone is an awful human/leader/communicator behind the scenes, as a head coach, because Flores won games and still got fired. He got dumped, by and large, because people don’t like him…and they can probably see he’s a terrible judge of offensive talent as well. Whoever steals this job has a golden opportunity in a place that players want to play/go to live/raise a family and play in a lot of warm weather games with no state tax on their earnings.

Who will the Dolphins choose to be the new head coach? I couldn’t care less. I will start out assuming whomever they choose will also fail within three years, but I’m willing for them to prove me wrong. My money would be on whatever coach they think Deshaun Watson wants to play for.

Flores is an ex-Patriot tie, so he will be the next Houston coach. The ‘shock’ availability of Flores on the market causes the Culley firing. The Houston GM is an ex-Pat. The Houston spiritual leader to the owner and GM is an ex-Pat. Culley was not. An ex-Pat is going to be hired as H-C in Houston…likely Flores. And they can all get swept away together in 2-4 years and go back to working for Belichick.

The Patriots lose but are headed to the playoffs. The Patriots have been in a nose dive since their Week 14 BYE…(1-3) to finish the season with their lone win over Jacksonville. The Patriots are one of the worst teams among the playoff group and will likely get squashed by Buffalo, unless the cold weather helps them sneak by. Even if NE slips past Buffalo, they won’t go any further than that. The playoff team with the worst QB among all the teams cannot make a run for the title.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- It sounds like one of the tipping points of Flores getting fired was his fighting with Tua Tagovailoa (15-22 for 109 yards, 1 TD/0 INT). I’m not sure if I totally buy it…I mean, it was Flores who slit his own throat mid-2020 season by pulling Ryan Fitzpatrick for Tua in the first place.

But just like fans get cranky about their team’s head coach right away, for not winning every game by 20+ points, head coaches get tired of their QB (if they’re not elite, and sometimes when they are)…because when head coaches lose, they tend to blame the QB.

So…did Miami management just side with Tua over Flores? Big mistake if they did. I can believe that Flores was done with Tua (like he was done with Rosen, like he was done with Fitzpatrick…his first starting QBs), but the GM didn’t want to be embarrassed by the pick…so, the GM bought himself another year of shifting blame for Tua’s shortcomings on the outgoing Flores. If a condition of taking the Miami job is ‘Tua is your starter’, then Miami is about to get a very sad coach because the GM is trying to cover his ass. No respectable coach with options will choose Miami if they HAVE to work with Tua.

-- If Tua stays, Jaylen Waddle (5-27-1/7) has a chance to be a WR1 in PPR again in 2022, but the risk will be the new coach breaks up the Tua-Waddle party with ‘a new system’ he brings.

-- They might have fired Flores because of what he did at running back the past two years.

How he could have purposely pushed Myles Gaskin (1-0-0, 3-11-0/3) over Jordan Howard in 2020 is criminal. Howard hated playing there – that was another sign that there were Flores issues. How could Flores pick Gaskin over anybody at RB?

So, Flores sticks by Gaskin from 2020 to this 2021 season, without drafting or signing any decent RB to challenge him in 2021. Then, all of a sudden, Philip Lindsay (11-40-0) became available midseason…and Flores grabs him and starts to push him, but then he and Gaskin get COVID, so Flores has to use Duke Johnson (25-117-1, 1-5-0/1) for an emergency starts…and Duke does well, and then suddenly Duke Johnson is his workhorse back. Almost two years of a useless Gaskin push, and then Gaskin loses his job due to COVID…to the illustrious Duke Johnson.

Whomever the new Miami head coach is – that RB group is gonna get turned upside down via draft or free agency or both in 2022.

Hopefully someone will realize the opportunity there is in making Philip Lindsay a great pass game back who can take 5-10 carries as well but can also be a lead back if the lead back is down for any time.

-- First 12 games for Mac Jones (20-30 for 261 yards, 1 TD/1 INT): 16 TDs/8 INTs…a great start for a rookie.

Jones’s last five games: 6 TDs/5 INTs and a (2-3) record that should’ve been (1-3). I think the Mac Jones/NE offense is getting figured out, as is Mac Jones.

As the season wore on, Jones faded some…while Davis Mills, in a much tougher environment, got better. I still think it is very possible Mills is the better rookie QB than Jones, but there’s still time for both to grow and we’ll see. Right now, I take Mills over Jones…but ‘neither’ would be my preference.

-- Jakobi Meyers (4-70-0/8) is Mac Jones’s BFF WR, right now. The season started with Meyers as his BFF…then there was a small stretch where Kendrick Bourne looked like he had made his move, but now it’s back to Meyers – 6.0 rec. (9.0 targets), 61.5 yards, 0.25 TDs the last 4 weeks of the season…a WR2-2.5 in PPR. That’s about Meyers’ ceiling.

Meyers ends the season #16 in total catches (83) among WRs this season. If you looked at the top 20 names in catches at WR this season, they would all make instant sense to you…with Meyers being the one surprise.

-- Damien Harris (11-37-1, 4-34-0/40 is back healthy and is the clear lead back when he is…he still shares, but the guy Belichick leans on/wants is Harris of the RBBC.

Brandon Bolden (7-46-1, 2-20-1/2) had a nice game as the #2 back this game, but I think he bumped Rhamondre Stevenson (4-34-0, 1-2-0/2) this game, in part, because of the circumstances of this game…NE got down quick and was in a lot of hurry up/pass game mode, and that’s Bolden’s domain.

Snap Counts of Interest:

43 = Duke J

15 = Lindsay

07 = Gaskin

55 = Agholor

52 = Meyers

36 = Bourne

12 = Harry

30 = Harris

28 = Bolden

09 = Stevenson

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**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups have begun**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

: Ross Jacobs; FFM; 13 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: 49'ers 27, Rams 24 (By Ross Jacobs)

The Rams led this game 17-3 at halftime. They were outscored 24-7 in the second half and it was absolutely no fluke. If anything they were lucky to have the lead they did early on.

LA moved the ball well early on, scored a couple times, then capitalized on a short punt by SF to take that massive lead. The 49'ers barely had the ball to do anything with it.

That all changed in the 2nd half as SF stormed back to tie the game. Then with just a few minutes remaining they were about to take the lead, but a Garoppolo pass into coverage was tipped by Jalen Ramsey who somehow came down with the ball. The Rams would go down the field for a 7 point lead.

The 49'ers next drive failed and they punted it back to LA who only needed to run out the final 2:30 to win. They couldn't and SF got the ball back with about 1:30 left. They went right down the field to tie the game and we were headed to OT.

SF won the toss and took their first possession down the field for a FG. LA ball to tie or win and we got a sequence of plays that encapsulates the problems that I believe will cripple the Rams in the playoffs.

First, OBJ ran the wrong route and tried to catch a pass one handed that was intended for Kupp. He got a second pass thrown at his feet because Stafford was under a ton of pressure and couldn't get it there. And on the final game sealing play, Stafford heaved a ball deep for OBJ but underthrew it and Ambry Thomas came back to the ball for the easy INT while OBJ just stared.

We have said all along that this OBJ experiment was doomed to fail. We said it while the media and fans crowed about how awesome OBJ was for catching a TD pass every game while the Browns struggled to complete a pass.

And I say it again now: OBJ is not a very good receiver anymore. He's ok. He can catch easy slant passes for TD's when they are thrown to him from the 2 yard line. That's all he is really good for and he is an absolute drag on this offense because Stafford is still trying to force him the ball like he's a star. He's not even close.

Here are his stats in 8 games since joining the Rams:

27 catches on 48 targets (56.2%) for 305 yards (11.3 ypc) and 5 TD's

Here are his stats in 6 games with the Browns:

17 catches on 34 targets (50%) for 232 yards (13.6 ypc) and 0 TD's

With the Rams he has averaged 38.1 ypg in one of the most prolific passing attacks in the league. With the Browns he averaged 38.7 ypg.

So tell me...what's the difference? There is none other than he went to an offense that scores a lot and he incidentally caught a couple of short TD's. He hasn't produced any more than he did in Cleveland and that's with Stafford instead of Baker and Kupp to take coverage away from him.

We were promised a superstar performance by OBJ with the Rams. He would take the offense to new heights! The media sold you a steaming bag of crap the same as they always do. OBJ is done, has been done. And if anything he is holding back this offense because they still don't realize it. Every pass sent OBJ's direction is a wasted opportunity.

The Rams could have gotten dozens of other receivers that were available all over the league that could produce better than this, and yet they fell for the sucker's bet on OBJ because their beach bum GM is too busy sipping pina coladas to actually watch tape.

If the Rams don't figure this out soon they are going to get their asses handed to them in the playoffs. They might anyways because they are a soft team and Stafford can't handle the pressure in big moments. Shockingly, he's the exact same guy in LA that he was in Detroit. Go figure.

The Rams drop to the 4th seed with this loss and it might cost them. I know the Cardinals haven't been playing very good lately, but they beat the brakes off of LA early in the season. They are capable of it. The Rams offensive line is dying and I bet they don't hold up well under heavy pressure from Chandler Jones and company. And you know what Stafford does when under pressure....

I've spilled a lot of ink on the Rams so far, but let's talk about the 49'ers. They've won 8 of their last 11 games including beating the Rams twice. But looking back over those games...not that impressive. They did beat the Bengals but that's the only other good win. All the rest are against the dregs of the NFL.

I'm not saying the 49'ers are a bad team. But they are a bit fraudulent and should have their hands full with the Cowboys (who also have beaten up a weak schedule but done it far more impressively). Their front seven really gave the Rams fits here, and they'll need a repeat performance if they want to beat Dallas.

Fantasy Notes

--Deebo Samuel obviously had a monster year, but can we expect a repeat performance next year? I think I'm going to pass next year for a few reasons.

First, RC and I both recommended selling him off hot after his blazing start. He was racking up 100 yard games and multiple TD's left and right, but we both felt like they were somewhat fluky performances. The long TD's were happening because a DB fell down or crashed into each other. Random stuff.

But then he got moved to RB and the TD's kept flowing. He scored 14 total TD's this year, 8 of them on the ground. It was an astonishing and impressive performance, but do we really think he's going to match that again next year?

What if Trey Lance takes over? How does that affect him?

I'm not drawing any hard conclusions right now because there's still a lot up in the air, but for the price I'll probably be looking at other WR's in his range.

--Now I expect there will be a lot of people fading Cooper Kupp next year for various reasons, and while some of those things are good arguments, I have no problem taking him again, especially because I doubt he'll even be the first receiver drafted.

Normally the top scorer one season automatically becomes the top drafted guy the next, but in this case I wouldn't be surprised if Kupp was the #2-3-4 WR instead.

I doubt he matches the raw stats from this year but only because it takes so much going right to set records like this. Will he have perfect conditions again? He might. We know he's talented enough to do it once. He's also Stafford's bff and is going to get a million targets.

The only real question is: can he match the TD mark again? We saw Davante Adams go from 17 last year to 11 this year. It doesn't sound like much, but it makes the difference between being a top 5 guy and being THE guy. Unfortunately, there's no way to know unless you have reason to believe the offense will score far fewer TD's as a whole.

So the short answer is: yes, I'll be drafting Kupp a lot next year especially if I get a discount on him. All the conditions are in place for a repeat performance. Don't go chasing the shiny new thing in favor of what is working. Remember our lessons on Derrick Henry this year.

--Jauan Jennings had himself a monster game on the stat sheet. It was a complete random outburst. He's an ok receiver, but one TD was a trick pass from Deebo and the other he got lost in coverage with the defense chasing Aiyuk. He was barely even targeted until the last 5 minutes of the game. Nothing to see here.

--Likewise, you can forget about any options behind Kupp and OBJ with the Rams. Van Jefferson is back to being a decoy/occasional deep ball guy since the team thinks OBJ is their Woods replacement. And Ben Skowronek is just too unathletic to even get open. Man, if only they hadn't wasted their 2nd round pick on a diminutive receiver that can't even get on the field....

--Cam Akers is back somehow and logged a few snaps here although he was clearly still behind Michel in the running game. I bet that changes soon. Michel looks as stiff as ever, and McVay has to get his love-child back on the field.

He looked a little tentative which isn't surprising since he hasn't played football in months. But other than that he was moving ok. I've never been that impressed with his athletic ability but he should be fine once they start jamming him carries. It might even be this week against the Cardinals if things get dicey, but I bet they try to get him one more semi-light game before going to him full-time. Best guess is split between him and Michel but with Michel as a slight lead, say 70-30 or 60-40.

--I've written more words this year on Trey Lance than any other player by far, and to date we still haven't seen much with him. I've grown quite nervous about how he's developing but it's still only year 1.

However, I'm beginning to have doubts about next year as well, especially if the 49'ers make a deep playoff run. I didn't believe it would happen, but Shanahan is digging his heels in and is not going to play Lance until he absolutely has to. He has no problem letting Trey ride the bench for another year or two. I'm absolutely certain.

We're going to have to see how this develops, but I am officially nervous. Trey will get his shot eventually, no doubt about it, but could it be 2023 before he does? Maybe. I think it's on the table now.

IDP Notes

--I've seen a lot written this week about what a great signing Arden Key has been because he has 6.5 sacks on the year. I've covered the 49'ers several times this year and he's never stood out to me, so I watched him extra close here and.....nothing. I don't see it. He's just another rotational guy on a deep defensive line.

His “half sack” here was only credited to him because he reached out and touched the QB as another guy wrapped him up. He was literally the least impressive D-lineman I saw for SF. Hard pass from me.

Snap Counts of Interest

52 = Michel

13 = Akers

64 = Kupp

51 = OBJ

45 = Jefferson

17 = Skowronek

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 13 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Browns 21, Bengals 16

The Browns sat some starters, while others played part of the game…and they went with Case Keenum at QB (as they should). They were playing like a team ready to get to their vacations.

The big question was – what would the Bengals do in this game with their starters? Most playoff teams in a position to sit starters Week 18, didn’t. Whether that was teams long since out of the race or even teams only playing for a minor seed change ran the risk of putting their guys out there in harm’s way and (for the playoff bound teams) not giving them a week of extra healing. I really applaud the Bengals for not getting caught up in that and them just sitting key players…in fact, they sat almost every starter.

I’m becoming a bigger and bigger Bengals fan by the day. I think they are the best team in the AFC playoffs, but it’s probably not their time yet due to a lack of experience even being in the playoffs. They should be the AFC favorites in 2022, even if they get bounced from the playoffs 1st-round this year. I can already tell you, my Super Bowl pick for the 2022 season is the Bengals…and we’ll see if free agency and/or the draft changes that thinking.

This game was not taken seriously by either team, but we did get a lot of fresh RBs getting extra work, especially for the Bengals. I was hoping Chris Evans would get more work and he did.

I’ve got five player notes below from this game, four of them concerning RBs.

One quick 2021 season ending team/coaching note – I should’ve known better on the Browns. I didn’t love them as much as everyone else did going into this season, but I still gave them respect…too much respect. I wasn’t a big Kevin Stefanski fan when he got the job, but then they had a sweet 2020 season and I thought maybe I was wrong…but 2021 has me back to ‘same old Browns’ thinking. With the Browns and Ravens and Steelers all fading away, it’s even more extra juice for the Bengals to dominate in 2022.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- With this rewatch, I mostly wanted to see Chris Evans (7-35-0, 4-24-1/5) at work. He’s been hurt/out for a while as Mixon-Perine ran the show. Week 18 was an excellent time to let Evans get work. And again, I point out, this is what Week 18 is supposed to be for…for teams who have little/nothing to play for. Not ‘finishing strong’ B.S., which is the single most ridiculous thing in a league inundated with ridiculous things. You should be letting younger players who haven’t played as much during the season get extended work, to evaluate them when you can AND keep your stars out of games with nothing to play for to keep them safe.

By contrast, the first example off the top of my head…the Atlanta Falcons. Nothing to play for Week 18. Yet, Matt Ryan plays the entire game…the young backup QBs don’t see one snap. #3 RB Qadree Ollison gets ONE CARRY…and he takes it for a 19-yard TD run…and never sees another carry after. I mean, you have to have a mental deficiency as a coach to play a Week 18 that way – but it’s Arthur Smith, the mental deficiency has been on display all season, as well as the lack of any business or common sense being present. He just has a giant silver spoon sticking out of his ass from the opportunity he’s afforded (from birth to college to the NFL) by being a product of a wealthy family.

So, you might think I’m over-applauding something so nonsensical like ‘sitting starters’ and ‘playing backups’ – but that’s because you have a functioning brain. It’s so simple to us…but it’s not obvious to them. The NFL coaching staffs, and management live in a different world (and, thus, they all get fired every 2-3 years for their failures). NFL organizations want to ‘finish strong’ over managing assets.

Darrell Bevell, who has no chance of ever getting hired as an NFL head coach, he rolls out Trevor Lawrence (the supposed franchise) in Week 18 in hopes of getting a win and impressing management to get the Jacksonville job (which I can't blame him, what else does he got?)…so he puts players at risk in a meaningless game and then, even worse, he wins the game and almost costs his franchise the #1 pick – but what does Bevell care? He won’t be there next year or his only chance, to him, is if he wins this game), so everything is currently disposable to him. So, if Lawrence tore his ACL, Bevell doesn’t really care. Why wouldn’t the GM or management step in ahead of that? Why…because they want to ‘finish strong’, that’s why.

Where was I? Oh, Chris Evans looks really really good. I didn’t see much in him studying his Michigan tape pre-Draft 2021, and he had the career output to warrant that skepticism of him in college…but then he had a great Pro Day to at least open the door back up with me from an analytics/metrics scouting standpoint (hey, maybe Michigan was the problem…not Evans?)…and then he looked really good in the 2021 preseason…and then looked good in his 2021 regular season spots of work. I’m very impressed with what I see from Chris Evans. He is looking legit…looking like a guy who if Joe Mixon got hurt, Evans would step in and about put up the same kind of output. Evans kinda even looks and moves and plays like a slightly smaller Mixon.

When will Evans get a real chance to work in the NFL…who knows? Mixon is obviously not going anywhere soon…but if an RB injury arises…but top 5-10 pick RBs never get hurt in Fantasy Football, so who am I kidding?

-- But the best back, currently, in this game was D’Ernest Johnson (25-123-1, 1-10-0/1). He is so ready to be a lead back somewhere, but he will likely never get that chance on purpose. His instincts running the ball…his toughness, breaking tackles…in this game, excellent. He’s ready. But he’s an undrafted free agent, so he doesn’t get chances like the major conference duds who were drafted will get in the NFL.

Five things about D’Ernest come to mind here…

‍

1) While many are patting me on the back for getting onto Rashaad Penny and D’Onta Foreman ahead of crowd this FF season, a.k.a. the two main RBs who helped take people to FF titles in 2021, there are some who keep saying/thinking that they only won their FF titles because of luck (in the form of Penny and/or Foreman). Some people are looking back on the season trying to figure out how they won their division/got a bye/won a title when their redraft early pick group got hurt/blew up (bad)…and they see Penny and Foreman as unplanned luck.

None of these ‘luck’ moves are luck. They were on purpose. Many of them came from years of watching preseason NFL and college scouting tape and not forgetting who they were, keeping tabs on them after everyone wrote them off…all the hours and hours and days and months of watching, noting, studying…you don’t know when or what player in what week it will pay-off on.

No greater example than D’Ernest Johnson. How many of you used him that Thursday night game midseason where he broke out with 100+ yard rushing and scored 20+ PPR points? I promoted/pushed him as a top 13-18 RB for the week. I knew from having watched him play the prior couple preseasons and reporting out/bellyaching that he deserved more of a chance and that some other team should grab him while he was on the Browns practice squad, as he was free to take by any NFL team years ago. I knew D’Ernest from scouting. I pushed D’Ernest that week he was getting a clear start without Chubb-Hunt. Everyone said, “Are you sure about this?” Many FF twitter analysts made fun of D’Ernest as a possible ‘start’ that week and/or they told people not to consider him as a start.

Many of your runs to a #1 seed/title this season were not just ‘lucky’ grabs of Penny and Foreman before everyone else, but you already forgot we used D’Ernest at just the right time ahead of everyone else too. It’s one thing to grab/roster the RB forced to play because all the ‘real’ RBs got hurt, so you take a chance on adding them…it’s another to go get them with a passion and then USE them at the right time.

Such a brilliant scouting call of the moment…and then I immediately said to turn on him/trade him after (unless you owned Chubb) because I also know NFL teams don’t give these guys opportunities when the ‘real’ starters are back, and now that all the pundits had ‘discovered’ D’Ernest AFTER his big game on cable television they were hot to trot on their new discovery…one you already had and used in their face ahead of them. And then trading him (if you could) during his media heat moment also ended up being the right call. We played it like a fiddle, from knowing the D’Ernest scouting/capabilities going in to knowing what the media reactions meant we should do after – and you may have already forgotten about it.

And those who dismissed the pickup/didn’t get to use the D’Ernest call that one week…you don’t know what I’m talking about because you didn’t feel it firsthand, so it’s not even a credit in my scouting account. So, I sound like an ass for beating my own chest over it – but these things matter. All the scouring of tape and data…when it pays off for such a time as this, it’s my favorite moment(s) of the season. Those that did use him…I don’t want us to forget that moment mattered in the tapestry that was the construct of a FF title this season.

People who didn’t win a title, and some who did, are doing an autopsy of the season and are fixated on all the things that went wrong that if only they drafted ____ in round one, and ____ in round two, etc., and making proclamations on letdown players like ‘I’ll never draft ____ again’. What you won’t likely remember in your 2021 season autopsy are all the little opportunities you had…little moves you made correctly, with urgency, to help fix the problems from a key injury or player disappointment, etc. You’ll ignore them or dismiss them as luck – which is a slap in the face to both of us. Finding opportunity isn’t contained to just the preseason draft. You draft 15-20+ players before the season starts…you then make 2-3-4x that in player transactions throughout the actual season. In-season adjustments and scouting matter as much/more than the preseason (re)draft.

Your support allows me to find and study and consider the D’Ernest Johnson’s and D’Onta Foreman’s way ahead of your competition. It’s easy to pick/debate between Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson…anyone can make a case for or against all the top names. The person who knows the least in your league can print off a free draft ranking off a website and land ‘names’, and then those names might go on to do great that season and don’t get hurt or COVID…while you studied for a billion hours and took Christian McCaffrey or J.K. Dobbins or Saquon Barkley or Calvin Ridley, etc. and it wasn’t so hot. But what those ‘free advice off the internet’ FF players don’t know/aren't reading about to consider is D’Ernest Johnson’s history and capabilities…until it’s too late, you already got them. You adjusted to fix mistakes, replace injuries, build depth…while everyone else usually goes as far as their original roster will take them.

Enjoy the Penny-Foreman run of 2021…but don’t forget about D’Ernest. These guys symbolize all that we’re about. All the work and study we put in. You had to consider the info and act upon it…that’s you job, you did that…it’s not ‘luck’. Gold miners process tons of square footage of dirt just to find little gold flecks. Same with football scouting. You have to process a lot of empty/useless dirt to find the little payoffs. I’m just the guy for the job. It’s your land…your gold mine…let me help you in the dirty work of digging up the earth looking for that treasure.

2) D’Ernest Johnson is the poster child for scouting analytics being worthless. Anyone who says that the Pro Day and Combine data is the best way to scout…would never find or know or believe in D’Ernest. I know, my computer scouting models didn’t like him at all coming out of college.

Is it better to scout via analytics/metrics or tape studying?

‘Neither’ is the answer. Both together is the answer…and you need time served doing both to understand how they are different and how they do work together. Random fan running a plot chart on air yards of WRs correlated to Fantasy performance for some website is nice…but it’s a small cog of a giant machine that needs experienced interpretation.

Ten+ years of learning…and learning something new every year within an ever changing NFL landscape – you can’t run a basic datapoint and go ‘see!’ on players/prospects. Sometimes it is that easy, but most times it is not. I knew D’Ernest because my computer data said he sucked as a NFL Draft prospect, but my trained/experienced eyes that watched EVERY preseason game saw something different to make me go back and reconsider.

Years of tilling soil paid off for just one week in 2021…and that may have been the difference of a midseason win or a loss, and eventually maybe the difference of a BYE or not a BYE, etc.

3) D’Ernest Johnson is a restricted free agent now, which means the Browns have to pay him really well to keep him another year…but NFL teams can make him offers as well, which if he is signed by another team the receiving team might have to cough up a draft pick in exchange. Depends upon how much of a tender Cleveland puts on him.

Cleveland will probably be forced to either put a ‘right of first refusal’ tender on him, which gives Cleveland the chance to match (and thus keep the player) any offer – but if they don’t match it, they lose the player with no compensation.

Cleveland could put a 2nd-round tender on DJ, and that comes with a big raise (for an RB) and if someone else signs him the Browns would get a 2nd-round pick. No team is paying D’Ernest AND giving up a 2nd-round pick to do it. Thus, the Browns just retained a running back for one more year at a very high cost…and they don’t need more RBs on their roster/payroll.

Johnson should refuse any contract extension offer from Cleveland outside of that because they will try to #3 RB lowball him. He should just wait it out, and he’ll probably get expensively (for an RB) buried on the Browns in some way for 2022…then goes to a true free agency in 2023. Guys like him usually take the bigger bump money now vs. betting on themselves in a year. A lot can happen in a year.

4) The situation might be such that the Browns pay Johnson decently, and then trade Kareem Hunt instead. Thus, D’Ernest is the new Hunt for the Browns working with Chubb.

One of D’Ernest or Hunt needs to go…and probably will. The Browns would have too much payroll into their backfield if they retain D’Ernest…like $15M+ worth of RB payroll. The Patriots will have less than $3M in their backfield and they had the better running game in 2021.

5) The final note…yes, Nick Chubb, who was not 100%, started for the Browns in this meaningless game and he played about 25% of it. Why? I have no idea, except to reiterate how stupid NFL head coaches are.

-- The Browns could have gotten Demetric Felton (1-6-0, 2-18-1/2) more touches out of the backfield in a game like this, but why let promising young players have more time when you can push banged up, expensive franchise backs in meaningless games instead?

I wanna say Felton will be the #3 back if needed in 2022, if/when one of Hunt or D’Ernest is gone…but that would be using logic. Felton looked like a real playmaker right off the bat for the Browns in 2021, and then he was barely used the rest of the season. Felton’s best game was Week 2 where he played 3 snaps, caught 2 passes, one of them a short pass where he ran through several defenders to score a long TD. That moment warranted no extra touches after that and no extra time in Week 18. Felton played 5 snaps this game…and scored another TD. Unbelievable.

Felton can play.

Kevin Stefanski is another typical ‘no business sense’ coach, classically/institutionally trained within the NFL system, with an Ivy League degree. He’s just like all the other coaches in the NFL. 2020 season was a blip.

-- Trayveon Williams (9-29-0, 1-4-0/2) got extra work here…the #4 RB getting way more work than Felton. I thought Williams had some hopes when I scouted him out of Texas A&M years ago, but he’s only clung on to a fringe roster spot for years with rare opportunity at touches. He missed his window. He’s not as good as Evans or D’Ernest or Felton (comparing the RBs in this game).

-- I watched every play Browns LB Clay Johnston (11 tackles) worked in this game, because I thought Johnston might have some NFL/IDP hope as a solid tackling, decent college prospect a couple years ago…but he is bouncing around the league every year.

I watched all his plays here, and I’ve watched him some in-season and his preseasons the past two years – he just doesn’t have ‘it’. I’m not watching anymore until he makes me somehow.

Snap Counts of Interest:

47 = D’Ernest

30 = Chris Evans

24 = Trayveon Williams

16 = Chubb

06 = Andy Janovich

05 = Felton

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season sign ups have begun**

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

: Ross Jacobs; FFM; 12 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Chiefs 28, Broncos 24 (By Ross Jacobs)

Well this game can't make you feel good if you're a Chiefs fan. I know the Broncos aren't a bad team, but they gave Kansas City all they could handle here.

The Chiefs scored on their first drive and it looked like another beatdown coming, but Denver locked in and frustrated them for the next 3 quarters. The Broncos took the lead in the 2nd quarter and wouldn't relinquish it until the 4th.

They held a 21-20 lead and were about to cash in on another score but Melvin Gordon was hit in the backfield, fumbled, and the Chiefs picked it up for an 86 yard TD. Without that singular play there's a good chance the Broncos pull the upset.

Instead, the Chiefs hang on for the 2nd seed in the AFC but do not look like a dominant team. They've lost to most of the better teams they've faced this year. Their best two wins were over the Packers without Rodgers and the Cowboys without Tyron Smith.

I think RC is right that they are a pretender team. They aren't bad by any means, definitely solid and hard to beat because of Mahomes, but this isn't the unstoppable aerial attack we're used to. It's just an above average group and they rely on their defense to get a couple turnovers to help out.

Of course they get the dream first round matchup against the Steelers who they should murder. After that things get dicier and they'll have to face either the Patriots, Raiders, or Bengals in the next round. I'm not sure they will beat any of those teams. All three are physically tougher teams with good ground games and none of them are afraid of the Chiefs.

I'm having a hard time seeing the Chiefs win the AFC. The Titans are better if Derrick Henry is back. The Bengals are better. The Bills are even or slightly better. And even the Pats and Raiders have what it takes to beat them. It just looks like bad matchups for the Chiefs across the board. This might be an early exit for them and then the questions are going to start about them falling off....and once the questioning starts everything gets put under a microscope and suddenly the flaws look a lot bigger and more real.

We could be looking at the time when the Chiefs fall back into the back of good-but-not-great teams with an elite QB trying to carry them to the playoffs every year, which is the fate of almost all teams because ultimately the coach doesn't matter, the defense doesn't really matter, the offensive line matters a little, but the QB carries the day. Every couple years these teams luck into a good line and an ok enough defense and they win 11-12 games, maybe make a Super Bowl or two, and then the luck fades and everything goes back to normal.

Fantasy Notes

--Tyreek Hill hurt his heel during pregame warmups and only played 14 snaps before he was pulled. It's definitely an issue heading into the playoffs as this type of injury can linger and significantly impair a WR's ability to play.

They likely won't need him against the Steelers so I wouldn't be shocked if he sat a week to try to heal (sorry) it properly, but coaches are the biggest idiots in the world so very likely he'll be out there playing and very well could aggravate the injury. If Hill gets knocked out because of this there's no way the Chiefs are making the Super Bowl.

--In Hill's stead, Mecole Hardman (8-103-0/11) seemingly stepped up in a big way. Is he finally, finally breaking out? Yes and no. Let me explain.

So almost all his catches and yards came within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. It was nearly all screen passes. 1) That's smart and something Hill never did until this year either. Get the fast guy with iffy hands the ball quickly and let him run. 2) He was just filling in for Tyreek, so if Hill is playing I wouldn't expect this to repeat unless the Chiefs change the offense and start sending Tyreek deep again which is a distinct possibility.

We won't know the answer to this until both guys play together, but I'm starting to think that if Tyreek is banged up they may send him deep as a decoy and let Hardman be the guy to work underneath. Byron Pringle will become the mid-range 1st down receiver. In this scenario Hardman would become a poor man's Jaylen Waddle. It's honestly a good role for him and if I'm right he should be a nice surprise ppr play in the playoffs.

--If you have games this week, definitely be careful trying to start Darrel Williams. This has turned into a full-blown committee between Williams, Gore, and McKinnon.

McKinnon actually looks the best which should surprise no one with FFM as we all know he's an incredible athlete. He had a couple plays here where he made half the Broncos defense miss. Look for him to possibly grab a slightly bigger role throughout the playoffs, especially as a receiver near the goal line.

--I've been claiming for 2 years now that I see something with Drew Lock and every week now I keep thinking that he is Josh Allen-lite (very lite) and I'm sticking by it. I don't mean that he's a hidden gem at QB or that he's even going to be a good starter eventually. What I'm saying is he's not nearly as bad as people are making him out to be. I see flashes of some real ability hiding here, but this shit offense isn't doing him any favors.

He's not getting any blocking and is throwing every pass under duress yet still manages to hit some spectacular plays. He does occasionally throw an inaccurate ball or make a poor decision, but without a doubt he has cut way down on those since his rookie year.

I want to see what he can do with better circumstances. I don't know that he's going to get that chance. Fangio never seemed to like him, the new GM Paton doesn't seem to like him, and very likely whatever new coach they bring in isn't going to like him. Things just aren't set up well for Lock to get another shot here. He's got one year left on his rookie contract, so I imagine he'll be “in a competition” with whatever new rookie or veteran they bring in this off-season, but we all know it won't be a real competition.

My guess is he rides the bench one more year and then leaves and hopes for a chance behind an established starter elsewhere. He probably gets the Trubisky treatment and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he actually replaced Trubisky as the backup in Buffalo behind Allen. Personally I'm hoping he can be the next Tannehill. I really do believe he has that kind of ability. It's just a question of landing spot and opportunity now though.

--I love the talent of Fant and Sutton, but unless something changes they have no hope in Denver next year. So much depends on who the QB is next year. If Lock gets a chance with a better O-Line I think things could be better. If it's Teddy again somehow you can forget it.

I do think Fant has more of a chance than Sutton though because for whatever reason this team seems to think that Jeudy is the #1 receiver and not Sutton. It makes zero sense but it's true. The one good thing with this situation though is that both of these guys are essentially free in dynasty. Nobody wants them for obvious reasons. But all it would take is Rodgers or Watson landing here to skyrocket their values, so for that reason alone I like them both as penny-stock deep stashes. The talent is there. It just needs the right situation to unlock it.

IDP Notes

--Every single time that Nick Bolton plays a significant amount of snaps he racks up tackle counts like nobody's business. The guy is a run game machine. Think of what Denzel Perryman did this year for LV. That's Bolton.

The trouble is, Bolton sucks in pass coverage and that is becoming more and more a part of the modern game every year. His snap counts decreased all year because of it except for the one spike game against the Chargers a few weeks ago. So what to do with him?

I think you stash him and hope he figures out the coverage stuff more for next year. He was a rookie this year and a high draft pick at that. The team wants him to become a full-time player. They are invested in that and believe in him. Plus the upside is too high. If he becomes an every down starter he could easily pace the league in tackles. If he doesn't then at least you took your shot on a guy with crazy potential.

--RC's guy Caden Sterns (9 tackles) finally played a full game as a starter and responded nicely. I honestly wasn't very impressed, but it's just one game. He clearly has the movement skills you want to see, but he looked a little timid to me, like he wasn't exactly sure what he was supposed to be doing.

I have a feeling Sterns might take a couple years to “get it” but then we're going to look around in 2025 and he's one of the better safeties in the league. Some guys don't splash immediately and we forget about them. That's the vibe I'm getting here. Sterns seems like the kind of guy that's always going to be underrated and never really get the recognition he should, like a De'Vondre Campbell.

--The young guy that did really impressive me here was Denver's Michael Ojemudia (11 tackles, 2 pd). Now you only get that many tackles at corner if you're allowing catches, but most everything caught against him was a screen pass. In coverage he was fantastic and that was with Mahomes coming after him.

He's got good size and moves around smoothly but doesn't look like a high-end athlete. Mayock would say he's not “twitchy.” He does a pretty good job in coverage though and is never beaten badly. Definitely looks like he could be a solid starting corner.

Snap Counts of Interest

65 = Hardman

55 = Pringle

41 = Robinson

31 = Williams

24 = Gore

23 = McKinnon

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 11 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Bucs 41, Panthers 17

It was a sluggish start for the heavily favored Buccaneers…down 7-0 early. Down 7-3 most of the 1st-half until they scored a TD with 0:15 left before halftime to take a 10-7 lead…a lead they would not relinquish as the Bucs piled on 31 points in the 2nd-half, blowing away the hapless Panthers.

Carolina enters the offseason under fire. The fans have turned on Matt Rhule (pretty much every coach past year one who didn’t go to the playoffs is ‘under fire’ or ‘on the hot seat’…i.e. ‘hated by the fans’…or they were fired already). Rhule is coming back for year three because of sunk costs and ‘what else is there?’ is my new rule on coaching changes. Two years ago, there was a bidding war for Matt Rhule, now Carolina fans are chanting for him to be fired at local sporting events. Who is more in the wrong…management or the fans? Don’t the fans clamoring for this two years ago need to shut up about it now?

The only person who wants Matt Rhule to be fired more than ‘fans’ is Matt Rhule himself. Who wants to put up with this? Rhule is taking the money, waiting to be fired so he can collect on the remainder of his huge, guaranteed contract, so he can then sign a huge deal to return to the college program of his choosing, where he will be welcomed with open/fawning arms…and thus escaping the never-satisfied NFL. The fans are creating this head coaching churn NFL-wide, they always have. The media is right there with them. The joke is on the system – guys are taking these head coaching deals to get a payday that sets the up nicely for the rest of their lives, then when they get fired in a few years and collect up their money due upon firing -- they can then run away with that money and return to their real passion…be it college coach or NFL assistant.

You know how only nutjobs want to be politicians? Who wants that kind of grief and exposure? People with some kind of mental desire or emotional need to satisfy (power/control) or spotlight they demand (or all of the above)…it’s kinda the same thing with NFL head coaches. You’re telling me Trump or Biden is our best and brightest, most capable people to run a country in the last decade? I’m watching Matt Rhule work in the pros, and listening to his press conferences, and I listened to/watched him coaching at the Senior Bowl last year – and the more I’m exposed to him, the less impressed I am. But it seemed like from his college track record this was a real hopeful? Two years ago, he was considered by everyone as one of the ‘best and brightest’ in the industry. Now look at him. Fans are never happy with their coach, for long…just like Fantasy owners look at their team and hate it when it isn’t winning in a particular week…or just think it ‘looks bad’ in the Dynasty offseason, and EVERYONE ELSE has SUCH a better roster. We love self-loathing in Fantasy.

I’ve turned full heel on these new coaching candidates or current ones ‘who need to go’ – I’m just going to assume they’re all terrible options, whether retaining what you got or trying to find a replacement…and make them prove to me otherwise. Even early Belichick…they tried, and did, run him out of Cleveland. I’m sure there was a contingent furious when he was first hired in New England. If Belichick quit the Patriots and took a job as head man of Jacksonville tomorrow…Jags fans would complain that they got Belichick past his prime. No one is satisfied in the NFL. Even when a team achieves something in a given season, there’s 4-8 months of ‘what they must do to stave off a collapse’ offseason articles and fan posts in chats online.

Where was I? Oh, Matt Rhule is staying…for one more year because he chose Sam Darnold, and when he gets fired the fans will be thrilled with the scalp they took…but Rhule will be even happier to depart the fans/NFL with a suitcase full of cash – the joke is on the fans, not Rhule. God bless Rhule’s 2023 replacement…he’ll go through the same pattern, likely, with the fans/media – all wonderment and hope going into year one and then shaky hope/skepticism year two and then calling for his head in year three.

The Panthers have had three winning seasons in the past 12 seasons. The David Tepper era has produced three five-win seasons in a row, a (15-34) record in his first three seasons (30.6%). Remember what a smart high-level investment guy Tepper was and how that was going to allow him to tear up the NFL? Not so far.

Tampa Bay has been even more pathetic than the Panthers the past decade+, but then they acquired Tom Brady last year and thus Bruce Arians is suddenly a genius. See how that works? The #1 trait I want to see in a head coach candidate – what QB does he have/is he getting? That’s all that matters. You pay a lot to choose Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz…you suffer the consequences.

The Bucs are the #2 seed in the NFC, and the only thing that stands in their way of a repeat title is ‘How cold will it be in Green Bay in two weeks’?

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- My main thrust for re-watching this game was to scout Ke’Shawn Vaughn (10-29-1, 2-12-0/2). Due to all the RB injuries for TB, he was in line for more work/snaps than he has had in 2021, or possibly in his two-year career.

So, how did he look?

Fine.

Nothing special.

He has the speed/agility of a solid NFL RB. He doesn’t appear to have the greatest instincts with the ball and is too easily tackled to my eye, but if forced some heavy work he’ll do OK. Bruce Arians has been so tentative with him it makes me worry he’s got an uphill battle to ever really FF-mattering, on purpose. Fournette and RoJo could all leave via free agency in 2022, leaving Vaughn in a great spot…but I’m pretty sure if that happened, they’d sign a veteran/star RB at a discount, who would love to work with Tom Brady…and/or draft a new future RB. Vaughn just does not seem to be it for Arians so far, but the door is not closed on it either.

-- This was a big opportunity for Cyril Grayson (0-0-0/0) to have a follow up to his past two weeks of ‘breakout’…with AB fully gone, the door was wide open for Grayson to seize the moment, seize the role from all comers on the roster (Perriman, Miller, etc.).

Grayson started and grabbed his hamstring 6 snaps in, and ‘poof’ he blew his big opportunity. He’s allowing the other guys to jump into his spot, and thus making it tougher for Grayson to jump back in when he’s ready. A huge blow to Grayson’s career. It may have been his one and only chance…and he let it slip away via injury.

Breshad Perriman (5-44-0/6) got more work with Grayson out and will likely steal the spot from Grayson going forward.

Jaelon Darden (0-0-0/1) continues to show nothing to try and jump into the mix. He still has hope/talent for the future, but sad that he isn’t seizing a golden opportunity right now.

-- Here’s why Carolina will fail in 2022, and the way they fail will damage the team for another year or two…

Carolina is likely to run with Sam Darnold (29-452 for 219 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) at QB again, because he’s the only one who talks to Matt Rhule with respect and pretends he is listening to Rhule’s rah-rah nonsense. Rhule spent millions on Darnold to have a ‘friend’ in the building. Darnold will be a ruination of the Panthers just like he was for the Jets.

Carolina will likely pursue Deshaun Watson, but if they don’t get him…they’ll stick with Darnold. Rhule will see Darnold as his only hope to get through in 2022…and it’s a bad strategy, one that should/will hang Rhule in 2023. He did it to himself. Darnold was his idea. Rhule is destroying his career through bad personnel moves…whether it’s him or the GM as the main thrust of them.

So, Darnold will be back and they’ll give big money to D.J. Moore (7-87-0/10) to keep continuity and they’ll retain Robby Anderson (7-50-1/9) for the same reason and neither will be all that great for FF because they’ll have the Darnold effect on them.

Why would Deshaun Watson (who has full control over his trade destination) choose to go to Carolina with D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson at WR. Tommy Tremble at TE. A terrible O-Line. And a coach no one likes/respects who is likely on his way out after next year?

Rhule will keep all his pieces from 2021 in place, by and large, and hope to hire a magical O-C that will ‘fix it all’. Head coaches, offensive coordinators…they’re only as good as the QB they possess, and therefore everyone in Carolina is doomed.

-- But what about Christian McCaffrey? McCaffrey has played 10 games total the past two years and the only people really excited about CMC are Carolina homer fans and PPR Fantasy Football players. Free agent QBs aren’t clamoring to pair up with a great checkdown option/working for an RB-based offense.

Will Carolina trade McCaffrey? No way. Rhule can’t afford the fanbase blowback, and McCaffrey is established and Rhule needs established/ready-to-go save him players in 2022. If anything, McCaffrey is the perfect Rhule scapegoat if CMC gets hurt again.

They should trade McCaffrey, but they would pay a ton to dump…for what? What are they getting from another team in exchange for CMC/a running back who barely stays healthy and costs a ton of money? They’re stuck with CMC for one more year. They can clear him out in 2023…with Rhule.

In 2022, for the first time since 2019, McCaffrey will not be the obvious/consensus #1 overall pick in PPR leagues.

-- Once again, for another week, a Tampa Bay pass rush IDP thing happened that is telling (to me)…

With all the Tampa pass rushers out injured, two guys have had the opportunity to step up and get noticed. Here are these two guys and their Week’s 17-18 tallies as full fill-in starters…

8 tackles, 2.0 sacks, 4 TFLs, 1 PD = Anthony Nelson, 4th-round pick 2019

7 tackles, 0.0 sacks, 0 TFLs, 2 PDs = Joe Tryon, 1st-round pick 2021

Don’t tell me, “Well, Tryon is a rookie!” Have you seen Jaelen Phillips for Miami? It’s not that Tryon is dead, but this was a great spot against two horrible teams/O-Lines and Tryon couldn’t even register a QB hit. He’s not doomed because of it, but it doesn’t give you warm and fuzzy feeling either.

Snap Counts of Interest:

52 = Tyler J

43 = MK Evans

37 = Perriman

14 = S Miller

08 = J Darden

27 = Vaughn

23 = L Bell

09 = Barner

42 = Tremble

37 = I Thomas

11 = Stv Sullivan

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season early-signups start January 6th, 2022, NoonET**

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

: R.C. Fischer; FFM; 11 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Seahawks 38, Cardinals 30

In their last six games, to finish the 2021 regular season, the Seattle Seahawks went (4-2)…and really should’ve been (5-1).

The Cardinals went (2-4), lucky not to have gone (1-5).

As I write this report, the Seattle Seahawks are CLEARLY the better NFL team than Arizona…but Arizona is going to the playoffs, and Seattle is going into their offseason already. I don’t think that the Seahawks are some great team now…it’s more to the point at how much of a collapse the Cardinals are under.

What might have happened had Russell Wilson not been hurt for 3.5 games this season…and probably came back too fast/was hindered for three straight losses after his return. Whatever it was, Seattle finished strong and for that reason, combined with his history of success, Pete Carroll deserves to return.

I’m the least fan of Pete Carroll you will find, but what else is Seattle to do? He has amassed a 193-73-1 record over 12 seasons (62% win-rate) and is (10-8) in the playoffs with two Super Bowl appearances. If you say, “Well, that was a long time ago!” Well, then first go fire Sean Payton and then Mike McCarthy…because they went to the Super Bowl once, led by an elite QB, won the title, and haven’t been back since way further back in history than Carroll…and they all have losing playoff records since as well.

Fire Carroll? It’s easy to say, but then what yayhoo ‘hot’ coordinator prospect is anyone aware of that is SOOOO much better than proven (or lucky) NFL winner Pete Carroll? I’m done paying attention to the coaching carousel that will hit like a soap opera storm for the next few weeks. I’ve arrived to the point that all NFL head coaching prospects are seriously flawed, destined to fail…and whatever decent one shakes out somehow will be one no one saw coming…and then people will be against them too, eventually. I’m done caring deeply about coaches.

If you look back at the class of 2021, the new hire head coaches – it is a clown show. We’re this advanced of a species and in a trillion dollar industry with billions at its disposal watched by millions, having some of most prestigious jobs in the world, NFL head coach, and they are filled by complete incompetents and career hangers on and young fresh face guys really into football who can talk football and make a nice presentation and/or are related to someone else in football…and none of them know the first thing about managing 100+ employees and a staff of 20+, and a few employees who make more money than you/have more power than you, and many of your employees are not into anything you’re selling/saying because they are looking for the next opportunity…and millions of moronic fans are eventually chanting your name showing their desire to have you fired at their local high school basketball games while the media insults you daily for sport. There is no training for that…and surely ex-college player, relative of a coach type human who never had a real-life day in his existence, cannot possibly be ready for the world’s toughest job variables to deal with and constant media/fan microscope.

Seattle might as well stick with Pete. The media likes him…and he’s so young for his age (I’m gonna puke if I hear that one more time).

6+ weeks ago, Pete Carroll looked all but ‘gone’ and Kliff Kingsbury was discussed as possible Coach of the Year. Now, today, Kingsbury may be on as much of a 2022 hot seat. However, he made the playoffs…so he’s safe for now. He’s tied to Kyler Murray, so he may be the safest coach in the NFL right now (Murray might/will leave if KK is canned).

The Cardinals won’t go far in the playoffs, but I hope they beat the Rams, so we don’t have to hear more about McVay and Stafford in Cabo Romance Novel material read to us by talking heads. The pregame coverage on ESPN ahead of the Rams-Cardinals game on MNF will be intolerable, led by the intolerable Louis Riddick and 75% of the time insufferable Brian Griese. How many times do you think they’ll mention how great the Matt Stafford move was? I pray they say it as he throws 7 more pick-sixes in an embarrassing loss.

This Week 18 game was a MUST WIN by Arizona…they could’ve won the NFC West title, had they won…they didn’t. That explains the Arizona Cardinals current state of affairs. Not good.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- I have to honor this first player note by mentioning Rashaad Penny (23-190-1). One of the saviors of FFM 2021 season…picked up at just the right time, mostly obtained ahead of when everyone else was thinking about it (in 10-12 team leagues…and some in 14-16 team leagues). You could call it ‘lucky’, and there is some element of luck in everything I suppose…but seeing it ahead, like with D’Onta Foreman…reading the tea leaves, knowing the player capabilities, interpreting the team situation – it’s all scouting and ‘intelligence’/intel. It wasn’t a blind dart throw.

Then it took guts to go with me for that shock Penny start Week 14 where we pushed him into our RB1 group projections when he last had an RB1 day in mid-2019 season. And he rewarded us with 137 yards and 2 TDs that Week 14. The following week EVERY FF outlet had articles with a Penny-based pun, alerting everyone to this new thing they just discovered. Your league mates maybe went to go on the waiver wire to place a claim when ESPN signaled the alert after his monster Week 14, but alas…he was gone…already on your team a week or two prior. Not only owned by you, but you started him the prior week.

For some, for FF 2021, Rashaad Penny made all the difference right up through Week 17 and 18.

If you tell me it was luck, I won’t hear of it. Don’t blame luck for all of us being one-step ahead.

Now we’re into the offseason, so thoughts turn to – is Rashaad Penny like an actual thing now in 2022? I think ‘yes’, and we’ll get into that deeper in our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball platform very soon…really soon.

For those who might have pissed and moaned about me being anti-Chris Carson and you missing out on him the past few years – this (Penny) was who/what I was afraid of. This is who I would see getting a spot opportunity and looking great and making me wonder what Pete Carroll was not seeing…and thus me constantly worried about Carson being totally taken over, and then when it didn’t…me ragging on Carson all the time. I thought Penny would have gotten this shot several times through the last 2-3 years…multiple times I thought it was coming.

No one is complaining to me about their lack of Carson on their FF teams now.

Pete Carroll and the media can spin this being about ‘Well, Penny could never stay healthy’…to that I say, ‘Bullshit’. Yes, Penny would get hurt…a bunch, but so did Carson…but over the past 2-3 seasons there have been plenty of times Penny was healthy and suppressed as Carson took another 0-3 yard carry as Penny watched from the sidelines.

This Penny-based 2021 FF-title run so many went on…this wasn’t ‘luck’ by me hopping on a train out of FF desperation and he seemed like a train we could use (and it wasn’t that way with D’Onta Foreman either) – my last few years of crying and wailing about Carroll being an idiot and throwing red flags up about Carson…it was for fear/knowledge of THIS (Penny). Years of watching every game (regular and preseason), and re-watching them, studying them, noticing what Penny was doing, being frustrated with Penny, saying I can’t trust Penny, but then trusting him, and then getting burned, then reclaiming I can’t do it again, but doing it again – all that work, all that study, all the calculations of the situation, all the prior false starts…we went heavy with Penny right before this great run, and it won titles. It wasn’t luck. We fought a losing battle multiple times here. This was on the radar for a long time. We took some pain to get to this pleasure.

Remember, I’m always right about football scouting…eventually.

Fantasy Football is not won by who had the best ‘(re)draft’ or who necessarily has the best Dynasty team going into a season…it’s also about who is the best ‘adjuster’ and ‘interpreter’ of the ever-changing landscape day-to-day. Which is not ‘luck’.

-- OK, enough talk about Rashaad Penny, for now…now it’s onto 6+ months of football media clickbait rumors and theories of what NFL QB is going to be traded where or should be traded to where. The NFL offseason has become like ‘People’ or ‘Teen Beat’ magazines…are there still magazines in circulation? Constant rumor/chatter/talk on who is dating who, who broke up with who, and so on. I’m sure at some point the journalistic genres will cross over and Pete Davidson will be rumored to be the starting QB for some NFL team per an ESPN insider.

The QB who will garner the most QB rumors this offseason might be Russell Wilson. We spent all last year enduring all the months of rumors of him and Deshaun Watson getting traded, and then in reality we got…nada…nothing but 5,000 articles speculating on all the trade possibilities.

Pete Carroll seems to be returning for Seattle, so it either means Russell Wilson has come to peace with Pete…or a messy divorce is coming with Russ on the move. By the looks of his contract, Wilson is likely staying put in Seattle in 2022…and then 2023 is maybe where the real opportunity to make moves would be.

I’m told (by the media) that Russ would like to move to somewhere near LA or NY to help his wife’s career (so they say) because planes don’t exist in the world anymore, I guess? And is a career no one is clamoring for to happen? And can’t she make content and put it on YouTube from anywhere in the U.S.? Who goes to the NY and LA entertainment cesspools anymore…it’s not 1955-2015 anymore? Russell makes enough money for everyone in the family and will be able to freely move on in a year or two, so I suspect he just goes about his business and plays it out and tries to leverage into a huge contract extension.

My bet would be between later this calendar year or in 2023, Russ is offered a nice long-term extension and he stays, as the public continues not to know his wife used to sing some popular songs once, for a moment. She has plenty of business interests going right now – she owns a rum brand/company, she’s got a big modeling contract, the couple is part owners in Seattle’s soccer team, she has a clothing line and stake in a production company – why does she need to be in NY or LA to revive a singing career that was last relevant like pre-2010? Why are there no big Ciara concert appearances people pay huge to go see? Can you name one of her songs?

I’ll take the easy bet = Russell stays in Seattle for a bit longer, maybe for forever.

-- Kyler Murray (28-39 for 240 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 5-35-0) did his part, I guess…Arizona scored 30 points. You should be able to win NFL games scoring that much.

All I’ll say is, if you watched the Week 17 CIN-KC game, and the Week 18 LAC-LV game…and either/both of Kyler’s Week 17 and 18 games – Kyler don’t look like Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow, no? That’s an NFL statement…that’s a potential FF/Dynasty statement.

Again, the Kyler case is at the top of my list of things to explore in DOBB very soon. Many of us own shares/stakes in him.

-- When Arizona scores 30, they should win…but the Cardinals defense has fallen apart right in front of our eyes. This one-time top NFL defense we rode for a half a season for DST purposes…it’s now dead. What happened? I really don’t know. Some secondary guys are hurt/out. J.J. Watt out is not good, but not doom…they were fine at first without him. Whatever it is – you can’t trust them until further notice, into 2022. We got some juice out of that orange, and then we bailed…that’s the way you do with DSTs.

-- Who is Kyler’s #1 target? Hell, if I know. It’s changing every week, which is a good thing to keep defenses on their toes…or he’s playing matchups, which is smart. But it is maddening to try to figure it out for FF purposes.

I mean, I thought it was Christian Kirk (2-43-0/3)…but 3 targets here in a must-win, yikes.

It was Zach Ertz (7-84-0/10) this game, which makes sense against Seattle minus Bobby Wagner. But that got me to thinking…Ertz has fit in nicely here, but he’s a free agent in 2022. Not likely back, no? Ertz will be 32 years old next season, and still looks like he can go OK. Travis Kelce will be 33 years old next year.

The fall of the Arizona WRs (for FF)…the unable to identify who is ‘the guy’/there might not be ‘a guy’ for Kyler’s style thoughts that I am getting – that concept/thought doesn’t make me feel warm and fuzzy about my love for Rondale Moore in 2022. If you leave the 2021 season thinking, “Well, RC…you got it wrong on Rondale.” I would just say, be careful betting against me. Eventually, I’m going to be proven correct…(but it might not be until 2027 is the bad part of that FF tale).

-- Just like I’m right about James Conner (15-52-1, 6-41-1/6). He’s killing that run game, which puts more pressure on the passing game. Sure, Conner is catching some passes and making FF numbers, usually off 1-yard TD plunges, but he’s not good/threatening for the offense. Chase Edmonds caught a ton of passes too, when Conner was out the prior two weeks…and he’s more of a weapon after the catch. Any kinda beefy RB could plunge for 1-yard TDs…remember Kenyan Drake was a TD stud in 2020 for Arizona?

James Conner is a free agent in a few weeks. Who knows if he’ll be back? All I know is -- if he goes, his replacement scores 10+ TDs next season, easily. My bet is – Conner is back, heavily paid…and it will be a big mistake. They could get free agent D’Onta Foreman cheaper to go in and run for 1-yard TDs.

-- How about Jordyn Brooks (20 tackles, 2 TFLs)? Bobby Wagner out, and Brooks just stole all those leftover tackles. Brooks is becoming/already is a legit LB1 for IDP going into 2022.

Snap Counts of Interest:

46 = Conner

25 = Benjamin

05 = Jon Ward

43 = Penny

13 = Homer

02 = DeeJay Dallas

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season early-signups start January 6th, 2022, NoonET**

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

: Ross Jacobs; FFM; 09 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: Steelers 26, Browns 14 (By Ross Jacobs)

This game was exactly the tragic, godawful mess you would expect. Two of the worst, most dysfunctional offenses in the league battling it out to see who is worse.

In the end, an extremely injured Baker Mayfield with terrible play-calling, bad receivers, and bad pass blocking won out over the shell of Ben Roethlisberger for most inept offense. It's sad to see how far these two have fallen.

It sounds like Mayfield has played his last game in Cleveland through no fault of his own. The media is tearing him a new a-hole right now for the crime of trying to play through very painful injuries that needed surgery months ago and trying to will his team to the playoffs with absolutely no help.

He was sacked 9 times here, so don't try to tell me this was Baker's fault. He's been under siege all year with no help, and still somehow kept things somewhat afloat.

If you think Baker is what's wrong with this broken franchise then nothing I say is going to change your mind, and you have absolutely no idea what you're seeing when you watch these games. I'll say it one more time for the people in the back: Baker is NOT the problem here. Just like Goff wasn't the problem in LA. Just like Foles wasn't the problem in Philly.

The QB is the fall guy but only if the media decided his fate before he was drafted. You can always tell who they are against because every tiny thing that goes wrong against their team is deemed the QB's fault and every positive is just the coaching fixing them or the WR's are bailing them out etc etc. It's the same garbage ad hoc explaining every time. And they are ALWAYS wrong.

THEIR guys are protected, coddled, and have every excuse in the world made for them. Jameis. Darnold. Cam. Gabbert. Bortles. Manziel. Wentz. Fields. I could go on and on. I have no idea how the media is so bad at picking QB's, but I know it's a fact and I know they will defend them until the guy is out of the league. And the opposite goes for guys they are against.

So with that knowledge it was easy to see that Baker was doomed to fail in Cleveland. The situation there is the same as it's always been. It's the same franchise that won 3 total games over a three year period. They clawed out of it for a few seasons almost entirely BECAUSE of Mayfield. And now they are going to sink back into the muck when he's gone.

Baker has my sympathies for how he's being treated. But the good news is he can escape Cleveland with only 4 years gone from his career. There is plenty of time to build himself back up, and I hope he does. The deck is stacked against him because the media will always be out to get him, but if he plays his cards right and lands with the right team things might turn out ok.

If I was Baker I would be thinking hard about how to find my way to New Orleans. He was always compared to Drew Brees anyways and would be a fantastic QB to resurrect that team like Brees did so many years ago. Sean Payton took a talented Brees back when he was booted out of San Diego for his supposed struggles and injury and helped him develop into one of the greatest QB's of the past 20 years. Baker has all the talent in the world to do the same.

Of course, the parallels are too easy and the story works too perfectly, so there's no way that will happen in real life. Unless it does...

On the other side of the field Roethlisberger just played his last home game in Pittsburgh and everyone knows it. Hell, Ben practically announced it himself.

He thinks he's walking away, but the reality is the team doesn't want him back either. He's cooked. There's no football left in him. If he tries to play another year it's going to be a disaster of epic proportions. Better to just ride away into the sunset with a couple of Super Bowls, a hero of the only team you've ever played for, and a Hall of Famer (whether deserved or not).

Will he do that? I honestly don't know. I bet he kicks the tires on it for a few months, acts like he's debating it while seeing if there's any interest from other teams. When it becomes clear that nobody is paying him to be a starter in 2022, he'll act like he decided on his own to walk away.

Despite the win Pittsburgh has all but been eliminated from the playoffs. Technically they are still alive, but they would have to beat the Ravens, have the Colts lose to the Jaguars, and have the Raiders/Chargers game not end in a tie. Very unlikely to happen.

So what's the plan for 2022? Ben is gone. Tomlin appears to be coming back. The offensive line is still a problem. The offensive game plan will once again be built around Najee. Who the QB ultimately is will contribute to how the team does and how much we like/dislike the Steelers skill position players for fantasy.

My best guess is they are going to trot out Haskins and claim he's developed. If that happens then we bail on everything Pittsburgh related for fantasy. No Najee, no Diontae, no Claypool, no Freiermuth. Haskins will turn this team from an average group into one of the league's worst in a heartbeat.

If they somehow manage to find a decent QB (doubtful), then we can reconsider. But that could change the dynamic here massively. Diontae was Ben's boy. With Ben gone I don't think we can count on Diontae keeping up his scoring without the ridiculous volume he was being fed.

But perhaps it would be better for Claypool? If he gets a guy that can actually hit him accurately on these deep shots he might suddenly become a viable option again.

The safest bet right now though is to fade them all. I don't like Tomlin's personnel management, the game plans, any of it. This has disaster written all over it, and RC has seen it coming for the past 2-3 years. 2022 might be the final collapse of the Steelers for a while.

Fantasy Notes

--Najee Harris (28-188-1) finally had himself a good game on the ground against a dying Cleveland defense and honestly this was the best he's looked all year.

Why? Because the Steelers finally were able to open up some holes and let him run downhill. When he can do that Harris is as good as any RB in the league. He's fast enough straight ahead and is a bully with a full head of steam. His issue most of the year was there were no holes to run through and he was trying to jump cut away from danger. He's just not agile enough to do that.

We know he's going to be the center of the offense again, and if the offensive line gets some help he might live up to his draft position in 2022. But there is still the looming question of who his QB will be. If it's Haskins I think you have to avoid Najee because the scoring opportunities will be few and far between and he won't get the same volume in the passing game.

Someone else and things might not be so bad. Think of the difference between 2020 James Robinson and 2021 James Robinson. The only thing that changed was a worse QB was brought in this year, and the offense went from bad to league worst. That's the fear with Pittsburgh next year.

Just because he splashed as a rookie does not mean he's a slam dunk every year forever. Just ask Saquon. Surroundings are just as important, or even more so, than talent.

--I have the same issues with Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool next year as we've already discussed. Will the volume be the same? Because that's the only thing holding them up right now, and Claypool has even fallen even/behind Ray-Ray McCloud in the offense for the moment.

He might work his way out of that role by 2022, but it's no guarantee. Love the talent, hate this situation.

--Ditto everything said above for Donovan Peoples-Jones. I see a #1 WR caliber talent with DPJ, but the only thing keeping him afloat was Baker. New QB means the targeting could change, and Cleveland is likely to bring in new receivers next year. Will DPJ remain the top guy with some hotshot rookie coming to town? Hard to bet on that. DPJ is worth a speculative stash cheaply, but I'm not expecting much to come of it.

--What to do with Nick Chubb? He's one of the best pure talents at RB in the entire league, but with a run-heavy head coach and one of the supposed best offensive lines in football, Chubb somehow was a disappointment this year. There's really nothing you can do but hold and pray for a bounce back. He's too talented not to.

IDP Notes

--Grant Delpit has tallied 28 total tackles over his last three games after being elevated to playing basically every snap. He could be a big breakout at safety in 2022 fantasy. Wasn't super impressed with his play here, but you can't fault the stat trends.

Snap Counts of Interest

72 = Diontae

71 = Claypool

53 = McCloud

64 = DPJ

50 = Landry

41 = Higgins

: Ross Jacobs; FFM; 08 January 2022

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 17: Titans 34, Dolphins 3 (By Ross Jacobs)

The Titans thumped the Dolphins here obviously, but I do have a couple of narratives to bust after watching this game.

Clearly the Dolphins recent success was more schedule-based than anything. It's much easier to look like a good team when you're playing the worst 2 or 3 teams in the league every week. But I have to admit that this wasn't quite as big a beatdown as the score would indicate. The Titans scored 10 points in the final 10 minutes off of turnovers as the Dolphins flailed away trying to mount a comeback. Before that Tennessee was doing ok offensively but definitely weren't great.

Another factor here was the rain. It was coming down heavy and that greatly affected the gameplans of both teams. It was terrible for RC's BTO (baby throw offense) for Miami. It greatly helped Tennessee, however, because it forced them to do what they should have been doing for weeks...give D'Onta Foreman the ball like you would Derrick Henry. That worked out pretty well.

I don't think this was some big coming out party for the Tennessee defense though. They are ok, safe, disciplined, but they were getting run on early and their pass defense hasn't been good all year. Elijah Molden's emergence is helping though. We'll talk about him later. It seemed like just one of those games that lines up nicely. I want to see Tennessee stop a real offense before I get on board with them. The Chiefs and Bengals are a far cry from the Dolphins.

Tennessee is not a great team. They might not even be the best team in the AFC. But they are a solid, disciplined team that rarely beats themselves, and now they are getting back the engine of the offense. By all accounts it sounds like Henry is somehow healthy and ready to make a playoff run. If that's true then you have to think Tennessee are the favorites to make the Superbowl.

I can't stand the man, but I have to give Mike Vrabel some credit. He's the first former Belichick assistant to actually succeed in this league by copying his coach/boss. I'll have to think about it more, but Vrabel is on my short list for Coach of the Year.

This loss knocked Miami out of the playoffs. They'll still come out firing next week trying to beat the division rival Patriots and keep them from winning the division, but I don't think that's going to happen. New England is still hoping to win the division if the Bills somehow lose to the Jets, so they have everything to play for. I imagine we'll see a close game because Miami really isn't as bad as they looked here against the Titans, but I do expect the Patriots to find a way to win which would lock up mine and RC's under bet against the Dolphins.

Fantasy Notes

--Why didn't the Titans just give D'Onta Foreman the ball like this weeks ago? It's been there the whole time. He's not Derrick Henry but he does as good an impression as anyone in the league. The funny thing is he still was riding the bench on the first series like always. I have no idea why they always start with Hilliard but they do.

Foreman is headed back to the bench with Henry back obviously. He'll be a free agent this year, but I'll bet a dime to a dollar that nobody around the league signs him to be their starter. Henry returning for the playoffs is going to cost Foreman money because there's nothing like a successful playoff run to prove to GM's that you can play. Most likely he comes back to Tennessee on a cheap deal to be Henry's backup again.

--AJ Brown disappeared after his monster performance last week. It was a combination of the rain, Xavien Howard, and Tennessee building a big lead. Nothing wrong with Brown. He should be considered a WR1 from here on out, although a streaky one due to the offense and Tannehill's limitations. Getting Henry back will only help him.

--The craziest thing I'm walking away from this game thinking...the biggest reason the Miami offense got shut down is because Tennessee shut down the engine of their offense, Jaylen Waddle. How did they do this when Waddle has been a ppr monster tearing teams up with these underneath throws?

Elijah Molden is already one of the best slot corners in the league. He was all over Waddle and wiped him out with ease. Waddle finally caught a deep ball late in the game for 45 yards with another corner on him. Before that Molden only allowed him to catch 2 passes for a combined 2 yards. Molden is the better Tyrann Mathieu and we're just finishing up year one. Let's see how long it takes the media to figure out how good he is.

--Miami went with a split of Miles Gaskin and Duke Johnson here even though Johnson played far more snaps as a pass blocker. They both looked pretty good running the ball (which makes me worry about the Tennessee run defense) and might have run for more yards if Miami didn't get down so quickly. Johnson is the better of the two by a lot though and Miami knows it.

Neither guy will be starting here next year if I had to bet on it, but Johnson might stick as the 3rd down back. It was no secret that Miami wanted Najee Harris or Javonte Williams in the 2021 draft. They won't miss on drafting a high RB again. Brian Robinson or Isaiah Spiller will be wearing a Dolphins jersey next year, most likely Spiller since RC loves him and will hate this landing spot.

*RC NOTE: I will love this landing spot (hopefully)…because there will be no split role situation thrust upon Spiller because Gaskin or Duke are so good Flores ends up doing a/wasting time with a Javonte/Mel Gordon type thing. I want Spiller to go to a place where he rockets right to the main carries.

IDP Notes

--In the immortal words of Troy Aikman, I really like Christian Wilkins (10 tackles, 1 tfl). 82 tackles (5.1 per game) on the year for a DT is nuts. He's averaged 8 tackles a game over his last three games.

He isn't getting the huge sack numbers like Donald, but he's one of the best DT's in the game and I won't hear otherwise. There are other ways to impact the game than just getting sacks on defense and Wilkins does all those things well in addition to being a great leader. He'll get his recognition in due time.

--Tennessee has fully committed to Zach Cunningham now. He'll be the starter in the middle next year. I suspect David Long will be the other start and Rashaan Evans will rotate in. Jayon Brown is the odd man out for some reason. Personally I think he's the best of the bunch, but what do I know?

I don't care for Cunningham really. He's a run stopper but sucks in coverage. Long is a good player and who I would pair with Brown if it was my team. I bet he doesn't get nearly the same tackle counts next year with Cunningham in the fold though. Cunningham is Vrabel's boy and nothing will change that.

Snap Counts of Interest

41 = Foreman

15 = Hilliard

57 = Swaim

29 = Firkser

36 = Duke

15 = Gaskin