- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Lions 37, Packers 30
This game was meaningless for the Packers, but they ran some (not all/most) starters to begin the game and they went back-and-forth with the Lions playing this game to win ‘to finish on a strong note’ a.k.a. blowing a massive opportunity to secure the #1 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and all the things that could come with that.
The Lions led 17-13 at the half and held the lead into the 4th-quarter but then the Packers backups started rolling and they took the lead 30-27 for 4+ minutes remaining. The Lions…desperate to win, desperate to throw away the #1 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft…stepped it up and took back the lead with under 2 minutes left and went on to win it…which was a big loss in reality.
I don’t know why I do, why I fixate on it or expect somehow it will be different the next time -- but I continue to marvel at the sheer lunacy of NFL head coaches and their decision making. If you think I’m crazy about head coaches having no business sense and thinking it’s all about their coaching, and the players are just annoying pawns to move around their chess board – look at this game from Dan Campbell’s perspective…
Around halftime and into the 2nd-half, the Lions would have seen (on the scoreboard) the Jacksonville Jaguars actually beating the Colts…meaning if Jacksonville won and Detroit lost, the Lions would secure the #1 overall pick in the draft. With that #1 pick you have all the options at your disposal…a franchise QB (if they’re there) or trade the pick for more picks/assets. No one cares about the #2 pick all that much, but they will pay up for that #1…all the attention is with the holder of the #1 pick.
The Lions could’ve pulled Jared Goff (and others) in the 2nd-half and went with a backup QB to try and further ensure the loss likelihood. They did not. The meaningless win that the coaches think is some brilliant launching pad for next season is a joke. Defeating the Packers backups last second, which is actually embarrassing, is not momentum for next season -- but the lunatic coaches don’t see it that way…this meaningless win just cost the Lions a ton of future assets. But when you’re a delusional coach, the picks don’t matter because it’s coaching that matters, it’s ‘a win at any cost’ that matters…not draft capital/long-term thinking.
I would have tanked this game, if I were the Lions – bench Goff, play the 3rd-string QB, say ‘you want to take a look at what you got’, and do everything to lose just in case Jacksonville won…even though it was unlikely the Jags would – but then the Jags shockingly did win. But not Dan Campbell…no, ‘he’s a winner’. He believes in pickup trucks and blue jeans and apple pie and hard work. No one will remember this win…they already don’t. They will remember it 1-5 years from now when/if the eventual #1 pick in this draft is a superstar and all the Lions had to do was NOT throw all their starters at the Packers’ backups in a meaningless Week 18 game. But likely the fans will forget this moment as well, down the road. Campbell will be fired in 2-3 years and the big wheel keeps on churning.
The worst thing Dan Campbell will have ever done as an NFL head coach…is win this Week 18 game.
The Packers get the win via a loss, which actually is smart on their behalf – helping make sure the Lions didn’t get the #1 pick, helping the intra-divisional foe blow their own foot off…brilliant. Not that Matt LaFleur was thinking that, but it was brilliant nonetheless…’brilliant luck’. The Packers are headed to the Super Bowl regardless…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Jordan Love (10-17 for 134 yards, 1 TD/2 INTs) started the 2nd-half and for the second time in extended play this season…he looked completely unimpressive. He tore up the 2021 preseason. Was one of the best QBs that I watched in the preseason…that QB is in hiding in the regular season. Love is panicked, jumpy, and the offensive plan is dumbed down to a bunch of quick passes and rollouts for him.
This should’ve been a time for Love to really take some chances, for the coaching staff to let him prove himself. Nope. He just ran safe plays coaches run when they know their QB isn’t capable.
I’ve moved to neutral/anti-Love at this point. His preseason had me buying in. This regular season, and my prior college scouting say…’I’m out’.
Green Bay better give Aaron Rodgers whatever he wants in order for him to stay.
-- Think the Lions are serious about replacing Jared Goff (21-30 for 238 yards, 2 TDs/0 INT)…or at least drafting the guy for the future? Well, the Lions staff are coaching one of the Senior Bowl teams, which is a tremendous opportunity for teams in need/want of a QB to see the top guy(s), if they attend, to spend a full week with these guys and really get to know them better than any team/organization out there.
The teams coaching in the Senior Bowl get to push for the QBs/players they want to work with. The Jets have Zach Wilson, so they’re not pushing to deeply scout the top QBs. The Lions, you might suspect, are interested in a young QB…so, the Detroit staff had their choice of any three QBs for Mobile. Kenny Pickett is the obvious first choice…and/or most certainly would be in the top 3 of QB prospects Detroit would wanna look at.
So, of course, the Lions put in for Malik Willis, Sam Howell, and Bailey Zappe. That’s as poor a scouting job as you will find…one of the single dumbest personnel/GM-ing decisions I’ve ever seen in my time covering football things.
You could not get a clearer sign that the Lions are not taking a QB at #2 than that (or that’s the way they think now). Anyone who mock drafts a QB to Detroit at #2 has no idea what they’re doing.
If Detroit is either unaware of/don’t think Pickett is worthy of a look…then it is even worse in that organization than you could even imagine.
The two worst coaching things I’ve seen in the past month/year…Detroit playing to win Week 18 (and winning) and then the Detroit staff not choosing to be with Kenny Pickett all week. It’s utterly inexplicable how moronic it all is. But Dan Campbell is gonna try really hard for you good, hard-working people of Detroit…he’s gonna fight to the end for you.
…I’m Dan Campbell, and I’ve approved this MESSAGE.
Suckers.
-- The Lions played this game to win, and Dan Campbell split Jamaal Williams (13-42-0, 1-9-0/1) and D’Andre Swift (7-39-1, 4-16-0/5) in this ‘must win game’.
Since Dan Campbell has taken over the offensive reins (midseason) from later-fired Anthony Lynn, Swift got an initial surge of carries and then Swift got hurt, and upon his return the carries/touches/snaps really haven’t been there like before. Not sure why or what the plan was. I mean, this is the Lions playing every game like it’s the Super Bowl…coaching every game like it’s the Super Bowl…so, Swift being throttled back is a bit odd.
Anthony Lynn is gone, so we don’t truly know what the Swift plan is for 2022. The way 2021 ended, I’m not sure that Campbell is as in love with Swift as the rest of the world is…but it’s hard to tell. I wouldn’t just go into 2022 assuming he’s ‘the guy’.
-- You barely knew Amon-Ra St. Brown (8-109-1/10) was in the NFL up to Week 12…and then he went on a tear his final 6 games of the season: 8.5 rec. (11.1 targets), 93.3 yards, 0.83 TDs per game…the #2 FF WR in PPR from Weeks 13-18.
Why is no one buying him as a top FF WR going into 2022? Why am I not? We’ll explore that question in this offseason on the DOBB side of things. He’s on the list of players to take for the mock redo Dynasty Rookie Draft we have going right now, so we’ll discuss it some there but then we’ll likely examine him deeper with an offseason piece because it’s really strange that he came on like a hurricane with numbers, but when you watch the games…he’s not doing anything all that noticeable.
-- Patrick Taylor (11-53-1, 2-3-0/2) took over at RB in the 2nd-half…he’s one of the best #3 RBs in the NFL. He’s a minor version of A.J. Dillon (14-63-0, 1-4-0/1)…physically big, pounding runners with pretty nimble feet and can handle themselves in the passing game. Likely, Taylor runs as the #3 RB again in 2022.
A.J. Dillon got a good number of touches as the season wore on, but no real signature moments. 1 TD in the first 9 games of the season, 6 TDs in the final 8 games however…more of a pace I would expect from Dillon in the future. He’s a 10-15+ TD a season guy when he becomes the lead.
-- Allen Lazard (5-75-2/6) scored 2 TDs here…5 TDs in his last five games. 8 TDs in his last 10 games. I’m not seeing any real magic between him and Aaron Rodgers, just someone has to get other TDs besides Davante…and with Robert Tonyan gone and MVS + Cobb out hurt on and off, Lazard got some extra love. I’m a fan of Lazard’s but I’m not seeing anything special happening…just good WR in a great place at the right time.
Packers FF Notes for their game vs. SF…
-- David Bakhtiari likely out stings the offense a little. Not a death blow by any means but having your quality left tackle out is a factor versus better opponents…and the 49ers defensive front has been much improved going into this game.
-- Aaron Jones should be back 100% for this game, which means a hot hand split between he and A.J. Dillon.
-- Allen Lazard has been hot but with MVS (maybe) and Cobb back this week…it’s anyone’s guess as to who will enjoy any Davante leftovers.
-- The GB-DST vs. Jimmy G. is a battle between the best defense left in the playoffs vs. the worst QB left in the playoffs…it should be the differentiating factor in this game.
Snap Counts of Interest:
65 = St. Brown
49 = J Reynolds
42 = Raymond
32 = Swift
24 = Jam Williams
06 = C Reynolds
37 = Dillon
31 = P Taylor
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups have begun**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis of the NFC Wildcard Game.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis of the AFC Wildcard Game.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Titans 28, Texans 25
Huge game for Tennessee…win and they would become the #1 seed in the AFC. A shocking turn of events…a #1 seed achieved despite losing their best player (Henry) halfway through the season, maybe the best/most important offensive player in the NFL (and I think RBs are pretty much all the same, lower value…but not Henry).
The Titans jumped out to a 21-0 lead at the half, and it was obvious to everyone that, of course, the Titans would crush the weak Texans here in such an important game. But…
With 4:04 to go in the game, the Texans had closed the lead to 28-25. The Titans on the verge of letting the lead, the AFC #1 seed, get away. But the Titans ran out the clock…they got the first downs needed to just put the game away/let the clock tick down on kneel downs at the end for the win. Closer than expected, but the Titans achieved the improbable – the #1 seed in the AFC.
Nice gutty effort for the Texans…so ‘gutty’ that they fired their 1st-year head coach about a week later. He didn’t deserve it. I mean, he shouldn’t have been hired in the first place…but he was there, and the Texans played better than their crappy roster for the most part. Culley didn’t deserve this. However, he committed the cardinal sin of NFL organizations – he has no ties back to Bill Belichick/he’s not an ex-Pat, so he’s going to go out with a whimper to be replaced by a true Patriot Way guy. Culley was a patsy…hired to run this ‘tank’ season, get it out of the way, then get Culley out of the way so a real ex-Pat can come in…whomever that might be. Culley is the Lee Harvey Oswald of the NFL in 2021-22. https://youtu.be/sbR6vHXD1j0
GM Nick Cesario is the Jack Ruby.
The Texans owner’s spiritual guru/football advisor/ex-Patriot/Cesario BFF from their days in New England Jack Easterby just sits back and laughs as his direct deposit clears for another bi-weekly compensation. He’s the CIA head in the tale of this rudderless team management, this tangled web the Texans are weaving.
Why I went JFK assassination to describe this…I think it was because I was listening to someone speak about the ordeal/theories on it last week or so, and I guess it was stuck in my subconscious.
The Titans go into the playoffs a #1 seed, that almost no one is picking to win the AFC and go to the Super Bowl…despite the potential that Derrick Henry might be back/ready-to-go. With Henry back, they should be the favorite. Without Henry, I think the Bengals would dismiss them handily.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- D’Onta Foreman (21-69-0, 1-15-0/2) kinda took over as the true lead back (with Derrick Henry out) in Week 12. From Week 12 to Week 18 (6 games), Foreman tallied…
110 carries, 482 yards rushing, 3 TDs, 6 catches for 60 yards.
18.3 carries, 80.33 rushing yards, 90.33 total yards, 0.50 TDs per game.
A 17-game season tally at those averages per game: 1,365 rushing yards, 1,536 total yards, 8.5 TDs per game, 17 catches.
That’s pretty salty work for a guy who any team could have picked up off the street the first 8 weeks of the NFL season. Foreman was a better, more effective RB, in 2021, then Ezekiel Elliott (likely playing hurt), Saquon Barkley, and Miles Sanders among others.
D’Onta Foreman is a free agent at the end of the playoffs. You think he’ll get a good contract and a chance to start anywhere in the 2022 season? Hell, no. Adrian Peterson will get chances ahead Foreman for some team most likely in 2022…just like in 2021…just like in 2020 the same scenario was true.
Here’s another example of how bad Falcons HC Arthur Smith is at evaluating talent…he had Foreman in the preseason (knew him from his days with Tennessee in 2020), but cut him weeks prior to the 53-man roster announcement.
-- Julio Jones (5-58-1/9) finally kinda mattered in a game again. It may be that he was just dealing with a nagging injury all mid-to-late season (typical) and he’s nursed his way to being ready for the playoffs (smart).
The Titans are the #1 seed.
They are getting Derrick Henry back, we assume.
Julio Jones is looking ready for the playoffs.
A.J. Brown is fully back from his couple games missed.
The defense is playing better and better.
Why are we usually all assuming the Titans can’t make it though the playoffs and get to the Super Bowl?
Julio is set to make $14M next season…or $13M to cut. The Titans took a big risk and a big financial burden to add Julio Jones this season…and it really hasn’t worked out for the price. Perhaps, he’ll salvage all that with a nice playoff run? If they win the title, it will not matter. If they lose to Cincy, the Titans fans/media will be howling about Julio as an epically stupid decision.
-- Davis Mills (23-33 for 301 yards, 3 TDs/0 INTs) in a meaningless game for Houston…down 21-0 at the half…behind a terrible O-Line, no run game, and no real receiver firepower outside of Brandin Cooks (and he only played 18 snaps) – and Mills throws for 300+ yards and 3 TDs and almost leads a comeback on a fully engaged opponent.
I never thought Mills would be a legit NFL QB. He didn’t have enough time at Stanford. His tape looked sloppy. He showed some mechanical skills but looked to me like he was robotic and overwhelmed…and he looked that way in the NFL preseason as well. He was thrown into the NFL fire for Houston early in the season in a terrible situation with a terrible coaching staff, and he’s responded – he’s done really well for a rookie.
In their last 6 games played/started in the 2021 season…
11 TDs/3 INTs, three 300+ yard passing games, 67%+ Comp. Pct. in games 3x = Davis Mills
10 TDs/7 INTs, two 300+ yard passing games (one was 299, but we’ll say 300), 67%+ Comp. Pct. in games 2x = Mac Jones (ignoring his start v. BUFF where he had 3 pass attempts)
I maintain, Mills is on par or better than Jones…considering the disaster Mills has to deal with and the terrific surroundings for Jones. I bring it up because it’s fascinating to consider if Mills and Jones are about the same, but what the draft price was by comparison.
-- As Davis Mills rose to power in the 2nd-half of the season, Nico Collins (3-67-0/7) showed some flashes of being a legit NFL WR…but he has a ways to go.
In his final 5 games of the 2021 season, Collins averaged 3.0 rec. (6.0 targets), 43.6 yards, 0.20 TDs per game.
Collins has work to do to improve his short game, but he definitely flashed star-like talent to me. Very encouraged by the raw skills of Collins. He’s definitely one to watch for 2022 or 2023. He has some ‘it’.
-- The Titans defense has allowed 0-19-17-3-25 for points in games since their Week 13 BYE…just 12.8 PPG allowed in that span. They didn’t play a murder’s row on the schedule or anything but they did squash who they should and did fluster/halt the hot (2nd-half of the season) 49ers offense in that stretch.
This defense faces a HUGE test with Cincinnati/Joe Burrow 1st-round of the playoffs…but they killed Patrick Mahomes and Matt Stafford earlier this season.
Titans FF Notes for divisional game v. Cincy:
-- This game marked the first time that Ryan Tannehill had a fully healthy A.J. Brown with fully healthy (looking) Julio Jones with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine running as the heavy-snap count #3…and Tannehill completed 71.9% of his passes and threw for 4 TDs…and each of those three WRs caught a TD pass. It was Tannehill’s best game (to my eye) of the 2021 season.
Tannehill has 7 TDs/0 INTs in his last three games, completing over 73% of his passes in that span. With Derrick Henry back providing cover for thinner coverage in the passing game, Tannehill might be a slick DFS/one-week play this week.
-- I’d expect a fully cleared, healthy Derrick Henry to get 90%+ of the RB touches, with Dontrell Hilliard on 3rd-downs/obvious passing situations, and D’Onta Foreman to barely play/touch the ball.
-- Anthony Firkser has scored a TD in back-to-back weeks. 2.8 rec. per game his last five games.
Snap Counts of Interest:
56 = A.J. Brown
50 = Westbrook-Ikhine
46 = Julio Jones
12 = McMath
10 = Ch Rogers
35 = Foreman
34 = Hilliard
48 = Swaim
23 = Firkser
40 = Burkhead
17 = David Johnson
01 = R Freeman
41 = Collins
37 = C Moore
30 = Amendola
22 = J Camp
18 = Br Cooks
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season sign ups have begun**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis of the NFC Wildcard Game.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis of the AFC Wildcard Game.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis of the NFC Wildcard Game.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Analysis of the AFC Wildcard Game.
- R.C. Fischer
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Cowboys 51, Eagles 26
Dallas played this game to win it…for better seeding potential. The Eagles had little reason to play, having clinched a wild card already, plus an outbreak of COVID positives, so they did the smart thing and took Week 18 as a BYE week for their key players and didn’t worry about +1 seed move potential.
Philly goes to Tampa Bay round-one of the playoffs…and I think the Eagles could be a sneaky option to take down a wounded Tampa team in the rain…with Philly as fresh as they can possibly be.
Dallas ‘wins’ this game and thus draws SF instead of Arizona, and all things considered…I think Dallas would rather have lost and played Arizona…because I think San Fran, one of the hottest teams in the NFL, is going to take them down.
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- Gardner Minshew (19-33 for 186 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) got the start and played well, but working with backups all over and the backup defense giving up score after score to Dallas 1st-team (and then 2nd-team)…no chance Philly/Minshew was winning this game.
Minshew had a third TD pass in the bag, but J.J. Arcega-Whiteside botched it…right in his hands in the end zone. There is no worse offensive player in the NFL than Arcega-Whiteside. A 2nd-round pick of the Eagles, mind you, with most all of the scouting world onboard with it.
Minshew is one of the 30 best QBs walking the planet earth, but he’ll be stuck behind Jalen Hurts for another season (and Hurts is a top 20-30 QB walking the planet as well) and then Minshew-Mania will hit free agency in 2023. He will not challenge for the Philly starting job…Hurts is the Philly franchise QB.
Minshew has 41 TDs/12 INTs in 27 NFL games/22 starts…and yet cannot draw more than a 6th-round draft pick in a trade this preseason. What do NFL scouts and GMs look at all day, all month, all year?
-- I really was excited to rewatch this game, primarily, to see QB-turned-TE Tyree Jackson (3-22-1/5) starting and seeing actual targets!
He scored a TD on a simple TE shuffle pass mid game…and at least it was something, but later in the game, running down the sideline, he tore his ACL…non contact.
So…in the 2021 season, in August Tyree broke his back in a preseason game. Rehabbed his way back midseason, only to tear his ACL at the end. The new ‘Jalen Hurd’.
I was a huge fan of what I saw from Tyree in the preseason, but a broken back…and then an ACL (which will likely linger into 2022 season being it was a late season ACL), I’ll do a Shark Tank ‘I’m out’. I/we (Dynasty players) have him on many deep-deep roster Dynasty teams. I’m OK to hold at a certain point, but my initial wild enthusiasm and ‘next Waller’ claims have been undercut by the injury bug/monster.
-- With the Eagles top three starting RBs all out Week 18, Kenneth Gainwell (12-78-1, 4-9-0/7) was set to be the lead…and he did fine, but the RB who caught my eye was Jason Huntley (13-51-0, 0-0-0/1). I think he caught Nick Sirianni’s eye too because Huntley got more and more time in this game as it went on because he looked so strong.
I’m bumping up Huntley’s projections for the future in our Dynasty Offseason valuations – which will debut in the DOBB area after the Super Bowl, the top 600 offensive players by our computer model dynasty values.
Huntley looked capable enough to be a #3 RB in 2022 with Scott-Howard potentially gone via free agency, but Huntley is a free agent as well. Huntley returned three kicks for a 28.0 yard average in this game as well…he can be the primary KR in 2022 as well, if Philly retains his services.
-- Think of all the WRs that have hit in the NFL the past two years, guys just entering into the league and impacting at a high level…Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Darnell Mooney, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, etc. WRs are walking into the league and producing…there is no more ‘you know WRs in year three’ theory anymore – the NFL has evolved past that.
And then there’s CeeDee Lamb (2-45-0/2)…the media’s favorite 2020 WR/‘generational talent’ hitting the league.
Working a very solid offense, with a #1 WR (Amari) taking all the top coverage heat and Michael Gallup being out for a stretch, and Lamb was pretty inconsequential this season…and his output faded off as the season wore on.
Lamb scored 2 TDs in his final 10 games of the 2021 season. He went over 70 yards in a game just twice in that 10-game span. He has not been a difference maker…just a guy on the field who is fine/solid/capable. I’d argue Cedrick Wilson (5-119-2/6) works harder and better when he’s pushed into a starting role for Dallas…and I’ve speculated on that going back to 2020 on Wilson v. Lamb. I think the Dallas offense looks better with Wilson in Lamb’s spot, and Lamb out. In 2021, working together…Wilson seems more interesting.
I’m doing a redo Dynasty Rookie Draft on CFM and DOBB right now, a mock draft using just the 2020 and 2021 rookies…and I don’t know if Lamb will make the top 20…or even make the official top 25 (which is how deep this particular mock will go). I’ve made 10 picks (posted) so far, as of this writing, and Lamb is nowhere to be found…and isn’t on my short list for the next 5+ picks.
Would you rather have Amon-Ra St. Brown or CeeDee Lamb for Dynasty going forward? If you don’t own CeeDee, you probably knee-jerked and thought ‘CeeDee, of course’…but that’s because we’re all affected by the media hype/coverage of him and playing for the Cowboys adds more hot sauce (in our minds) -- but you don’t know the reality. Lamb owners would likely be less likely to leap at Lamb over ARSB right now…and that’s just one example.
Darnell Mooney or Lamb? Easy choice for me, Mooney is far superior.
There’s a CeeDee Lamb issue happening/he’s not living up to expectations. At least Jerry Jeudy can blame his offense/QB. Lamb has no excuse for his mediocrity…except he’s mediocre, he always was.
-- Will Ezekiel Elliott (18-87-0, 1-3-0/3) be a 1st-round pick in redrafts next year? The easy thing to do is pile onto his bad 2021 season and say ‘no’, but…
1) People love to take RBs, for redraft, in the 1st-round…so much so the mere proposition of a WR or QB or TE 1st-round makes most FF player’s butt cheeks pucker up. I’ve seen and lived with that mindset for people for 5+ years now. It’s really weird how institutionalized we are on the Fantasy RB.
2) People also LOVE ‘Zeke’…remember that time he jumped in the Salvation Army bucket? Oh, those were the days.
Saquon is probably OUT as a 1st-round belief in redraft 2022…but Zeke still has enough heart strings pulled, and he’s a COWBOY so that’s a +1 value boost. He’ll probably be in most late-1st-round rankings in the mainstream, and thus the reality.
One thing I can guarantee you about Zeke in 2022…you will not see us with him in our 1st-round valuations, nor will I ever suggest you draft him in 2022. Let him be someone else’s problem or salvation (Army). There’s better RB value out there.
-- For whatever it is worth, I think the Eagles are starting to explore Jalen Reagor (3-10-0, 2-19-0/3) as their ‘Deebo Samuel’…and you know what? Reagor looks really good running the ball.
Three carries in this game…one of them was him as a straight-up running back/lone setback in the backfield. He’s failing as a traditional WR, but if they get him involved in a totally different way…jet sweeps, regular RB totes, and designed bubble screens…and just drop the regular WR stuff…maybe they get a weapon for the playoffs that will shock the Buccaneers as something they didn’t see coming.
But that’s just me…using logic…applying it to a league, a business, a thing that rarely uses logic.
FYI, Reagor has caught 57.4% (2020) and 57.9% (2021) of his pass targets in his two seasons in the NFL. Not good enough. Will the Eagles ever live down that they took Reagor in the 2020 NFL Draft…and then Justin Jefferson went in the next pick?
FYI #2: Had Jefferson gone to Philly we would not know him as the Jefferson we do today.
-- IDP note…
Eagles rookie DT Milton Williams (3 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 PD) is perking up…the Pro Day measurables attention-getter in 2021 – Aaron Donald like measurables, but not an Aaron Donald-like college career.
In Williams’s final four games of the 2021 regular season: 2.3 tackles, 1.0 TFLs, 0.50 PDs, 0.75 QB hits, 0.25 sacks per game. He’s starting ‘out athlete’ blockers in spots later in 2021…and encouraging sign/hope of something for the future.
Snap Counts of Interest:
69 = Reagor
43 = Ward
31 = Quez
14 = Devonta
39 = Gainwell
31 = Huntley
49 = lamb
46 = Amari
42 = C Wilson
37 = Zeke
17 = C Clement
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups have begun**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
- Ross Jacobs
- FFM
2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 18: Steelers 16, Ravens 13 (By Ross Jacobs)
You've got to be kidding me with the Steelers. This team is so bad and yet now they've lucked their way into the playoffs thanks to the Colts. Unbelievable.
This was a sloppy game played in the rain between two not good teams and it showed. The Ravens actually led a good chunk of the game but got down later on and managed to send it to overtime where they just couldn't come up with a score.
Baltimore sustained too many injuries this year and their early season good fortune faded in the second half. Hard to remember they were the #1 seed at 8-3 at one point. They finished with 6 straight losses to end up with a losing record and we called it ahead of time.
Pittsburgh makes the playoffs for whatever that's worth, but they have absolutely no chance of winning the Super Bowl. This is quite possibly the worst team to make the playoffs that I've ever seen. They are downright painful to watch. Maybe they can cover the huge spread against the Chiefs, but a win seems highly unlikely.
Pittsburgh Dad Analysis: https://youtu.be/J1A3sApu9g0
"You knew what you're getting into when I came down the aisle in a Greg Lloyd jersey..."
Fantasy Notes
--I've been talking up Tyler Huntley since this preseason and he laid a real egg here. What happened? The rain mostly. It was very sloppy conditions and instead of taking shorter, easy throws, the Ravens were trying to attack middle/deep. It didn't work out too well as a couple of Huntley passes sailed on him a little bit for easy INT's. He really didn't play all the bad on the whole.
Huntley will be an exclusive right free agent in 2022 which means the Ravens can offer him a league minimum contract and he can't negotiate with other teams. They could also trade him if they get a large enough offer, but I highly doubt that happens. Huntley played well but I just cannot see another team trading away draft picks to bring him in as a potential starter. Not yet.
Most likely Huntley plays one more year in Baltimore as the backup and will sign with someone else to compete for a starting spot after that. He's a decent player, but I do think he needs to play in a system like Baltimore runs. If you try to jam him into anything else it's probably not going to go that well.
--What is the Baltimore backfield going to look like next year? You have to imagine we see the return of JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, but since both guys will be trying to come back from ACL injuries, I bet we see Baltimore bring in another capable back just in case. We know it's not going to be Ty'Son Williams....
--One thing I'll be watching very closely next preseason, is how targets are split between Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman. Bateman is for sure the better talent but Brown is still bff's with Lamar and Lamar isn't that great a passer anyways. If Bateman does pass Brown though, he could be in line for those force-fed targets Lamar was giving to Brown early on. Don't forget that Brown was tracking as a top 8 receiver the first half of the year. Bateman is a better player, so I'd love to see what he could do with 10 targets a game.
--Latavius Murray (16-150-1) had himself a huge game. Trust me when I say it wasn't Murray's doing. He's fine but he just runs straight ahead for what's blocked these days. You want to know what sprung him open so often? Ben Cleveland was mauling people.
Cam Heyward supposedly had such a great year and he was getting blown off the ball by Cleveland all game. I only saw Heyward beat Cleveland once on a run play. But the biggest gains were when Cleveland pulled to the right and just blasted whoever happened to be in his way. The run game is in good hands with this animal blocking for the next 10 years.
--RayRay McCloud continued his string of heavy targeting. Don't be fooled though. He's not very good and only catches screens and short drags. Also with Roethlisberger gone next year the targeting likely won't be so heavy and he'll fall farther behind Diontae and Claypool. Nothing to see here.
--One impressive rookie that I didn't initially like after the draft was Pat Freiermuth, but once RC and I got a look at him early on it was clear he could play. He's a Dalton Schultz level talent, pretty good, nice solid TE, but nowhere near, say, Kyle Pitts.
Now it's possible Freiermuth could work better for fantasy than Pitts considering the sorry state of the Falcons and their head coach. He nearly did this year (10.4 vs 9.5 ppg) but that was with Freiermuth scoring 7 TD's vs Pitts's 1. Do we really think Pitts is going to go another year only scoring 1 TD? I don't. I'll take Pitts heads up every time until proven otherwise.
IDP Notes
--Early in the year I liked the development I saw from Patrick Queen. He was flying around, attacking the line of scrimmage, making a lot of good plays. But I hadn't watched him in several weeks before this game, and let me tell you, what I saw here was not good.
Queen was constantly out of position, roaming around without purpose, missing tackles, getting blocked out of plays. It was downright ugly, the kind of thing you saw from him a lot in college. He's got all the physical talent to make it, but there's been a definite downward trend in his play recently.
I couldn't tell you why yet. Maybe the injuries around him have put more pressure on him, he's not as protected as he was early in the season. That would be my best guess. Regardless, I won't be surprised if Baltimore drafts an inside linebacker in 2022 to develop. If they do it's a very good sign they'll be moving on from Queen sooner rather than later.
--Got another good look at Chris Westry too after not seeing him in a while. He's got impressive height at 6'4” and moves pretty well for a guy that tall, but he's too easy to shake on short routes. His game is more straight line. Let him run deep and he can play bigger receivers well, but he was on Diontae a lot here and was getting torn up. That's not a crime. Diontae is really good. Just saying he should have been playing more on Claypool.
Snap Counts of Interest
69 = Claypool
65 = Diontae
50 = McCloud
62 = Bateman
58 = Brown
21 = Watkins
