R.C. Fischer

FFM

30 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Chiefs 36, Steelers 10

I’m not sure what is more embarrassing…

1) How bad the Steelers truly are. They are the worst team ‘still in the race’ from the playoffs in the NFL…along with the Falcons.

2) How bad the AFC North is…the Steelers still have a viable path to win the division, or worst case still get a wild card.

3) How poorly the Steelers played in this game. It was KC 23-0 at the half, and it wasn’t that close. It was 30-0 KC deep into the 3rd-quarter before the Steelers settled for a field goal to really give them a sweet mental boost about themselves…they scored three whole points and were only losing 30-3 now…much better for the team psyche.

It was soon 36-3 KC with a late junk-time TD getting us to the 36-10 beatdown final. The Steelers played like they weren’t even there as KC pushed all the backups in that they could and laughed up on the sidelines.

However, if the Bengals lose to KC Sunday Week 17…then the Week 17 MNF game between the Browns (7-8) at the Steelers (7-7-1) could position the winner for a division title if the were to win Week 18 as well. It’s not improbable that the Steelers win out and somehow find their way to the playoffs or division title. I would bet they don’t get to either because they are the worst…but this 2021 Steelers group always defies logic.

Kansas City is now (11-4) and in the driver’s seat for the #1 seed, but Tennessee is very much alive if KC loses one game ahead, and if they lose to Cincy this week…then the Bengals are suddenly in the #1 seed race. You assume KC will pull it out, but Tennessee has a great path as well…having already beaten KC for any tiebreaker.

Pittsburgh Dad’s take of this game always sums it up better than I can: https://youtu.be/7gt9GOVRXtQ

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Brace yourself for this shocking news, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire (9-27-1, 1-4-0/1) got hurt in this game and is likely/going to miss Week 17.

You ‘work hard’ to get those Dynasty Rookie #1 Draft picks and they have been disappointments within 2-3 years, if not one year, in retrospect. CEH is one of the worst #1.01 DRD picks in recent history…seeing how most had to take CEH over Jonathan Taylor. I bought into that logic for a bit at the start of the post-Draft valuations of their Dynasty Rookie Draft year…the notion that the KC landing spot was too juicy, despite JT being 2x the player/talent. I later switched to just ranking/taking Taylor as the summer went on, but then swapped back to CEH slightly due to his real world (to trade) value – but in reality, I advised to trade your 1st-round DRD picks for a haul…and did so again last year, and probably will again in 2022. The #1.01 DRD pick steak is never as good as the sizzle (*see, also: the #1 pick in your redraft).

Just like in the future – those that were faced with the choice, and my rankings never changed on it either, those that ranked/picked Najee Harris 1.01 over Javonte Williams are going to regret down the line. And maybe will regret not taking Kyle Pitts 1.01 over any of them as well. I digress…

With CEH out, we all assume Darrel Williams (11-55-0, 3-30-0/5) will be the obvious play…and he is. But don’t overlook how much opportunity Derrick Gore (12-43-0, 3-61-0/3) may get. It’s a big game with Cincy this week, so I’m not sure how much KC wants to mess around with a UDFA rookie type (Gore) versus the experienced hand of Williams…but KC has been pushing Gore more and more little tastes/touches to get him ready. Gore-Williams might be a cleaner/as good as version of the CEH-Williams duo.

If KC gets up and subdues Cincy, like they did here to Pitt…then Gore may surprise with the later-in-game touches he gets from Williams. Maybe. Something to watch/consider down in deeper roster leagues.

 -- Yes, I know Najee Harris (19-93-0, 5-17-0/7) sucks and is becoming an FF-letdown, but he gets volume. Even in this pathetic game, he got 11 FF points, 16 PPR pts. You’ll take it. He’s a 50-50 shot each week to get a 1-yard plunge. Again, it’s not his fault exclusively…he has no O-Line or offensive game plan to help hide his flaws and play to his strengths. He’s been visually terrible (for a ‘top guy’) but is the #4 RB in raw total PPR points tallied this season-to-date (only Taylor, Ekeler, Mixon better).

My note on Najee here is not to take another jab at him, but just to note – if you’re playing Najee for FF this week…be sure to have a MNF guy in reserve just in case the worst news hits on Monday morning/pregame. If you are not using ____ player playing Sunday 1pmET, and this is it/there is no game next week/this is the title game, then you should cut those players loose by like 12:55pmET (or whatever close to your deadline) to give yourself open spaces to grab anything you might need later that day or for Monday pregame if Najee gets COVID or whatever.

You should already consider adding Bennie Snell now if your roster will allow it, to protect any Najee bad news in advance (because if your opponent is smart, they will drop useless players and grab Snell to block you – and if your opponent is going Najee, you consider doing the same to block them). D’Ernest Johnson is a deeper option playing Monday if a Najee-Monday crisis hits. Leave nothing to chance.

If it’s a great player you would consider cutting before 1pmET Sunday, maybe you don’t do it -- for fear your opponents would quick grab and use them…you’ll have to see how close you want to cut it, but all other depth randos who play at 1pmET Sunday and they are not starting for you nor would they for your opponent, clear them out before 1pmET/whatever your deadline is. Keep your roster spots flexible for any bad news that could happen later that day or Monday.

 -- Same mindset for Diontae Johnson (6-51-1/9)…and whether you use Najee or Diontae, they should be in your Flex so if something happens you can replace them with a player at any position available for your Flex.

I just want to note: that if Diontae goes out…Chase Claypool (4-41-0/6) would become the Diontae…but so would Ray-Ray McCloud share in those responsibilities.

A target comparison on them since Week 13…

Ray-Ray: 4-8-3-8 (23 total)

Claypool: 3-9-2-6 (20)

Washington: 1-6-5-2 (14)

A snaps comparison on them since Week 12…

Ray-Ray: 67%-85%-67%-62%

Claypool: 63%-59%-63%-82%

Washington: 37%-41%-35%-31%

 -- Tyreek Hill (2-19-0/2) had a terrible FF game at the wrong time, but it was nothing on him…this game was a joke and they rolled it up on offense using secondary figures, because the Steelers are so awful. Hill played barely half the game. If this cost you a trip to Week 17…blame how bad the Steelers suck, not Tyreek or St. Patrick.

Byron Pringle (6-75-2/7) had his first huge FF game of the season. It was just random. The four games before this, Pringle had 2-4-1-4 for targets in a game for just 5-2-3-5 PPR points. No breakout here. Kelce being out helped push this too…along with Tyreek playing half a game.

Pringle got the bump here. Josh Gordon (0-0-0/3) did not. Gordon is a joke. Four catches on 12 targets in 10 games for Gordon as a Chief. Wow. Great job by the GM making sure Mahomes has plenty of weapons…

Snap Counts of Interest:

55 = Pringle

46 = Dem Robinson

30 = Hardman

29 = Tyreek

50 = Gray

25 = B Bell

29 = Darrel W

21 = CEH

19 = Gore

65 = Diontae

59 = Claypool

45 = McCloud

28 = Cody White

22 = J Wash

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

R.C. Fischer

FFM

29 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Packers 24, Browns 22

The Packers seemed to have this game under control all game. The Browns fired out to a 6-0 lead after their first drive but then the Pack just took control from there and eventually had a two-score lead going into the 4th-quarter, with the Browns turning the ball over like crazy…I thought (during the live watch) that GB would win by 3+ scores in the end.

But the Browns kept hanging in there and then suddenly it was a 2-point game, and the Browns got the ball back with 2:05 left, and were in perfect position to win the game. But, of course, another bad interception and…ball game.

The Browns fall to (7-8) but still have a decent path to the playoffs, and winning the division. If CLE wins out and Cincy loses to KC Week 17, the Browns are AFC North champions. But if the Bengals beat KC this week (which they have a good shot to), then the Browns are done…before they get to their MNF game. However that it all shakes out, I don’t think the Browns are going to make it – the Bengals are a better team all-around, plus Baltimore still has paths, etc. Too many hurdles for the Browns to get to the finish line/playoffs, but if they win out it’s very possible they sneak in.

The Packers (12-4) are cruising towards a #1 seed, but if they lose one of their next two games and Dallas and the Rams wins out…then Dallas is the #1 seed. The Packers MUST get that home field advantage to get back to the Super Bowl, in my opinion. No home field, then all the other teams are on even footing with Green Bay playing in Florida (TB) or in domes (DAL, LAR, ARI). Preserving this Week 16 with a final drive stand/turnover/win over the Browns was huge in the big picture.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- The biggest thing I can report about this game is not about this game, but about next week’s game. The Packers will play Week 17 vs. MIN at Lambeau Field…and it will be one of the coldest football games in recent NFL history, one of the coldest played in Green Bay in the last decade or two.

4-5 degrees, feels like -10. Not good…not good for offensive output in the passing game, or otherwise really.

In very cold weather games, Aaron Rodgers (24-34 for 202 yards, 3 TDs/0 INT) usually throws for around 200 yards and is super-efficient with 2-3 TD passes. But this one is going to be extra cold. Whatever his output is…it’s not likely to be a crazy 300+ yards, 3-4+ TD ‘smash’ event. He’s likely to be very subdued in his output…it is going to be frickin’ freezing out there.

 -- With the weather outlook, I wouldn’t try to deploy Allen Lazard (2-45-1/5) or a (if) returning Marquez Valdes-Scantling (DNP/COVID) either…it’s not worth it. Not worth trying to stack or otherwise. One of them may score a TD…but I bet Davante-Dillon-Jones-Lewis has an edge not long TD guys like MVS, especially.

 -- The weather is built for A.J. Dillon (12-66-0, 5-21-0/6)…I’m thinking back to that bad weather game this time last season (colder, snowing, sloppy) where Dillon broke out with a star performance – 21 carries, 124 yards, 2 TDs v. TEN…as Aaron Jones took a backseat.

It will be a likely split of some kind between Dillon-Jones, but the scales tip (in theory) in the favor of Dillon in this type of weather.

 -- The Browns will play in some cold weather on MNF Week 17, but not near what MIN v. GB will have to endure.

I expect the Browns to go all-in on heavy-touch-count Nick Chubb (17-126-1, 3-58-0/4) with Kareem Hunt (DNP-ankle) still not 100% but in a minor role…if he’s back, and then D’Ernest Johnson (4-58-0, 1-8-0/2) ready if Hunt is out.

D’Ernest has come into games, sparingly, with Hunt out and been terrific with his few touches per game the last few weeks. No big drop-off from Hunt-to-D’Ernest. And D’Ernest is playing so well it really makes the 2022 offseason the right time for CLE to trade the aging asset in Hunt at a peak market value.

 -- The Browns have to go heavy Chubb as a game plan for a number of reasons…but one big reason is Baker Mayfield (26-36 for 222 yards, 2 TDs/4 INTs) is all banged up and is probably hurting this team more than he thinks he’s helping.

In Baker's last five games, he’s (2-3) with 7 TD passes, 8 interceptions…completing around 55% of his passes. It’s not good for the Browns…it’s not good for the Browns passing game options for FF output. I would not want to use ANY Browns WR/TE option this week for FF.

 -- On my Tuesday Night Video Q&A, I turned heel on Donovan Peoples-Jones (1-5-0/6) because I read a report that I THOUGHT was a quote from Kevin Stefanski on how he’s wanting Anthony Schwartz’s (1-5-1/1) role to grow and play more snaps ahead -- and that the snaps would come from DPJ. It’s an odd thing to say, but coaches mean things like that when they give specifics. However…

I went back to clip the quote to add it to this section…and…I can’t find it. I did find where BEAT WRITERS reported the Stefanski comments that Schwartz was earning more snaps, but then they shoehorned in their own assumptions that Donovan Peoples-Jones would give up snaps because of it. They made it seem like Stefanski said it, or I read it wrong/too fast, but either way/apparently it’s just idiot FF writers running with ‘theories’.

I was ready to buy it because DPJ has caught 13-of-31 (41.9%) targets the past five games as more of the ‘#1 WR’, but I know a lot of it is Baker injury/Mullens’s one-time start and that Stefanski likes DPJ.

So…I need to correct my bad assumption from the Video Q&A…

1) DPJ is not for sure losing snaps/is not in the doghouse with Stefanski.

2) I need to bump DPJ back up in my Dynasty Stash rankings, after slicing him down on this (bad/misinformed) news.

3) Schwartz is still a ‘keep an eye on’ option for this week on MNF…a pickup last second if Diontae goes down with COVID Monday morning type thing.

More snaps for Schwartz can come off Rashard Higgins…and remember when Demetric Felton was so good that supposedly earned more snaps? He has been a ghost since Stefanski said that around Weeks 2-3.

 -- Another solid performance for the Packers-DST here, aided by Baker issues…4 picks, 5.0 sacks.

The Vikings are a solid offense/tougher matchup for the GB-DST in Week 17 but considering the -10 ‘feels like’…we think GB-DST is a possible top 5-10 DST again this week. No Adam Thielen either, FYI.

Snap Counts of Interest:

33 = A Jones

26 = Dillon

33 = Deguara

25 = M Lewis

13 = Tyler Davis

59 = DPJ

54 = Landry

44 = Higgins

11 = Schwartz

41 = Chubb

26 = D’Ernest Johnson

04 = Felton

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

R.C. Fischer

FFM

29 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Falcons 20, Lions 16

Another week where the Lions play better than their opponents and have a shot to win late but blow it…down four with under a minute, and driving, and then they throw an interception at the goal line…ball game. The Lions could have a .500/winning record this year, with the way they’ve played/ the games they had in their grasp…but it’s been coached/(bad) lucked into a 2-12-1 record instead.

The Lions are a half a game behind from the #1 pick in the NFL Draft, but there’s little/no chance Jacksonville will do them a favor and win a game…but getting the #1 or #2 pick doesn’t mean much, since most high draft picks are butchered and the best players from drafts typically are not from the top 10…or even in the 1st-round. But it is an asset to trade, so getting to the #1 spot is something to shoot for…but I don’t think Detroit will get to it.

The Falcons are now (7-8)…the worst (7-8) team in the history of football. AND they still have a chance at the playoffs if they win out…but they won’t – facing at BUF and NO to finish the season. The Falcons need a lot of overhauling this offseason – they need a new QB, a makeover of the O-Line, and a change of head coach…but it’s possible they will do none of those three.

Urban Meyer was the worst coach in football this year, and David Culley is trying to grab that mantle…but the worst coach I’ve seen this year from a scheme, and usage, and relation to the players standpoint is by far Arthur Smith. This will not end well in time…unless he gets an elite QB to save him from himself for 2022+…or if the Titans trade him Derrick Henry.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Cordarrelle Patterson (7-14-1, 1-0-0/1) in his last 4 games (since Week 13)…

7.8 FF PPG (9.8 PPR PPG) on…

11.8 carries, 42.5 rush yards (3.6 ypc), 2.0 rec. (4.5 targets), 5.8 rec. yds, 0.50 TDs per game.

If I wanted to push an RB (or WR) getting 40-50 total yards a game and two catches a game for you to start this week, you would think I was crazy. If you WANTED an RB/WR who was getting 50 total yards a game with 2 catches per…I could name 25+ names off waivers who could accomplish that.

Thus, is the recent plight of CPatt, recently.

He’s rushed for a couple short scores to make it not horrible for FF a couple of those weeks, but his recent results are FF-terrible compared to where he was at to start the season. His PPR points in each game the last four games: 12-14-4-8

It’s not CP’s fault. When he goes in a direction off the snap…half of the defense heads in the same direction. He has little blocking, defenses are stacking him some, and defenses don’t respect his QB so they will stack CP. Arthur Smith is too stupid to use him in the pass game more to free him up. Patterson has been under 40 yards receiving in eight of his last 9 games…after starting the season with 55+ rec. yards in four of his first 5 games.

The trend has been winding down for several weeks and has been a disaster the past two weeks. I have no idea why it would turn this week…in ‘feels like’ 5-10 degree weather in Buffalo Week 17.

 -- Kyle Pitts (6-102-0/6) finally had another spike game. Just two targets at halftime…and then a floated bomb down the sidelines in the 4th-quarter that he caught one-handed for 35 yards took this from another ‘meh’ game to a solid TE1 effort. Nothing that different happened here than in his recent duds except he wasn’t doubled as much/broke away from it a few more times…and got the one-handed bomb catch to push the numbers. The intent of the offense, the direction of the game plan…same old, same old.

Kyle Pitts has scored 1 TD this season…one.

Kyle Pitts hasn’t scored a TD in his last 10 games.

PPR points in every game since Week 8 = 3-9-10-6-4-5-9-11-12-18. Usually under 12 points in any game and would’ve been near it in this game if he didn’t stab that 35-yarder with his big mitt.

The trends say Pitts is a TE2 more than TE1…so, how will he be that big of an FF-opportunity in Week 17 in ‘feels like’ 5-10 degrees against a smart BUF defense that will double him (like everyone), and has the manpower and coaching to do it effectively? He’s just a random hope Week 17…the hope that he has that ‘one play’ to tip the scales.

The thing is…Kyle Pitts is probably the best single rookie talent from this 2021 class. A ‘generational’ receiving TE. It’s hard to bench him because he can be special at any moment. With most TE1 hopes, you get a guy you know catches 3-5 passes for 30-50 yards and you hope gets a TD to make him a great FF-play that week. Pitts is a rare TE that you don’t know if he might go 6 catches for 100+ yards in-game at any moment. I know Gerald Everett or Cole Kmet or Tyler Higbee or Tyler Conklin or Pat Freiermuth or any number of guys are not going there like that each week, or any week that I’d expect it…but Pitts has that hope every week that he might no matter what the circumstances. And if I told you in any given week a TE went off for like a monster 7 catches for 200 yards type of game…you would guess it to be Pitts before Kelce or Knox or Gronk, etc.

Pitts is going to be special, but there’s work to do at QB to help him…then at WR…then at RB to change the scenario so teams can’t always double Pitts, and even when they do he has to have a QB that can deliver laser beams to him in tight windows. Matt Ryan is not that guy.

 -- Because Pitts spiked up Week 16, Russell Gage (4-37-0/5) dipped down a bit in output…he had been a WR1 for the past few weeks, but the Falcons barely had the ball (42 offensive plays for ATL) and with limited output from the offense, and Pitts having a bigger week…Gage suffered.

I like Gage as a talent, but you can’t trust him Week 17 in the cold at Buffalo. You can’t trust this ATL offense as a whole.

 -- OK…OK…I’m on board with Amon-Ra St. Brown (9-91-1/11). Just 2-3-4-5 weeks too late.

I still don’t get it. I watched him a lot on tape the past few weeks. He’s not doing anything impressive or amazing, just simple routes, easy passes, the option is there, it’s like a running play, the Lions take it. For FF, it’s been wonderful…so, ride it while you can.

This Week 17 at Seattle…possible rain…should be OK.

 -- Tim Boyle (24-34 for 187 yards, 1 TD/1 INT) played a solid game…until he threw the late pick to cost the team the game. Honestly, you could not tell much of a difference between him and Jared Goff. Boyle is a perfect backup…not good enough to really start/head up a franchise, but good enough to work fine in an emergency. He’s not better/worse than Taylor Heinicke.

 -- The reason the Lions lost this game was not because of the Boyle pick late at the goal line. No…it was the inexplicable decision by Dan Campbell to push Jamaal Williams (19-77-0) working more over Craig Reynolds (11-29-0, 3-22-0/4). The whole offense slowed down when Williams got the ball. Reynolds fought for/made key first downs and made nice catches in the passing game. Had the team just started Reynolds and let Williams watch, the Lions would have won and Reynolds would have had 150+ total yards and at least one score.

Swift, Williams, or Reynolds…I take Reynolds for the future, but the Lions will go heavy Swift. Reynolds has been that impressive, to me, as an all around back.

I will be a full believer in Dan Campbell if he fires Anthony Lynn at the end of the season. He already took the offense away from him, in large part. I’ll believe Campbell is a man of his word, and has a brain, if he dumps Lynn right after the season ends. I suspect part of Detroit’s overall 2021 issues winning games has to do with Lynn as a butcher of NFL offenses.

Snap Counts of Interest:

26 = Mike Davis

25 = Patterson

(another reason not to trust CPatt next week…inexplicable)

01 = Ollison

40 = Zaccheaus (played 15 more offensive snaps than Patterson)

40 = Gage

36 = Pitts

28 = Jamaal Williams

27 = Craig Reynolds

10 = Igwebuike

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

Ross Jacobs

FFM

29 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Eagles 34, Giants 10 

This game was somehow 3-3 at the half, but in the next 20 minutes after halftime the Eagles stomped on the accelerator and scored 31 straight points to put the poor Giants out of their misery.

As I speculated last week, the Eagles have become a really solid squad. They have been destroying weaker teams for weeks now. They draw a dying Washington team next week for what should be another comfortable victory, and they finish up with Dallas in week 18. They can no longer win the NFC East due to some weird strength of schedule tiebreaker that was triggered by the Raiders beating the Broncos, but a wildcard spot is still very much in reach.

The Giants are just pathetic at this point. The defense isn't that bad and the offensive skill positions are absolutely loaded, but as with most bad teams, QB and offensive line are a problem. I'd like to see Gettleman get one more chance to fix those problems but he likely won't get it.

Fantasy Notes

--Miles Sanders broke his hand here, so Philly will roll with a duo of Boston Scott (12-41-1) and Jordan Howard (9-37-0) against a Washington run defense that is breaking down so badly that teammates Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen got into a fight on the sidelines of their game.

It's a great spot for the two RB's, and I expect a 50-50 split between them with Howard perhaps taking a few more carries and Scott getting a couple catches. Both guys look like upside RB2's this week. Just have to hope Hurts doesn't vulture all the TD's (or you could start Hurts and hope that he does!).

--Love the growth we're seeing from Devonta Smith (5-80-1/7). There's still no consistent connection week to week with him and Hurts, but I like how Smith is figuring out how to separate. He's going to be a very good WR next year. How good will depend more on Hurts's growth or lack of growth as a passer. Even if Hurts remains a somewhat limited passer though, I still see room for a WR1 here with Smith provided they start targeting him more. I think it'll happen in 2022.

--What happened to Dallas Goedert (2-28-0/4)? It was a near-miss game for him. He dropped two passes but also had a TD called back for a holding penalty. It was very nearly a 5-60-1 type of day which would have been pretty good. Still, it seems like the Giants might have some special sauce for holding him down because they did the same thing to him a couple weeks ago. Love Goedert again this week against Washington. When they played two weeks ago he dropped 7-135-0 on them.

--Jake Fromm started for a while and it was as bad as could be expected. He could barely complete a pass with his weak arm and complete lack of pass protection. To be fair it would be hard for any QB when you're getting hit literally every play. But Fromm isn't good enough to even attempt to make something out of this disaster situation. He really shouldn't even be a backup. Very likely he'll be on the sidelines in a couple years and try to follow the Kellen Moore path.

--You know who did look good? Kadarius Toney. He's moving around like a star receiver again. No issues there. Unfortunately, it's most likely not going to mean a whole lot with Mike Glennon back at QB and this same terrible offensive line, but there was a definite plan to get Toney the ball. He was the first look here despite playing far fewer snaps than Slayton or Golladay, more so with Fromm than Glennon. The QB's know who the star player is at least.

There is some mild hope here playing a bad Chicago secondary this week (but frigid temps on the field are a concern). I do think Toney could be considered a flex option as a WR2.5-3 with upside.

--Saquon Barkley has no upside. He's fine but this offensive line is maybe the worst in the league and he's not even taking the most snaps anymore, Booker is. There's just nowhere to run and Barkley is getting hit almost immediately on every carry. I'm not even sure he's a RB3 at this point. That's how bad things are. I don't think you can start him this week against Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith.

IDP Notes

--Both TJ Edwards and Alex Singleton are killing it for fantasy IDP leagues. Edwards is averaging over 10 tackles per game over his last 8 games and Singleton is among the league leaders with nearly 130 tackles on the year.

Snap Counts of Interest

61 = Slayton

61 = Golladay

39 = Toney

41 = Booker

26 = Barkley

22 = Howard

20 = Scott

R.C. Fischer

FFM

28 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Colts 22, Cardinals 16

This was a bigger disaster than the football world will make of it, for Arizona. Indy entered this game with O-Line corrupted with COVID/injury…three starters out. Then they lost the heart and soul of their defense (Darius Leonard) right before the game due to COVID, along with top SAF Khari Willis. In-game, the Colts lost another O-Lineman and dealt with a few other injuries. This should have been a Cardinals crush party…but it was the other way around.

It wasn’t due to turnovers or anything fluky…this was Indy just handling the Cardinals. The better team won. And when you consider how many key injuries the Colts dealt with, and still manhandled the Cardinals – this is the straw that broke the Cardinals back. They are going to make the playoffs, but they are done for the season. Their soul ripped out and stomped on in this game…a three-game losing streak to mostly teams they should never lose to (namely the Lions Wk15)…including the Colts here, given the state of injury they were in.

Arizona has gone from sneaky Super Bowl pick, and possible D-C Vance Joseph up for head coaching jobs to…’Is Kingsbury the right man for the job?’ Sports talk chatter. It’s a legit question…for another time. We need to stay focused on info for Week 17 FF title games.

Arizona falls to (10-5) but they are all but assured of a playoff spot, even if they lose out. They will likely lose the NFC West to the Rams, but we’ll see in this bizarre year of COVID 2.0. If Arizona has the same record as LAR by the end of the season – Arizona holds all the tiebreak advantages. Whatever Arizona does…they aren’t going to be a #1 seed in the NFC, and they likely aren’t getting out of the 1st-round. This team is dying to the finish.

Indy gets a massive win, given the circumstances, to go to (9-6)…but even if they win out, Tennessee is virtually assured of being the AFC South champ unless Indy wins out and TEN loses out the final two games…but the Titans have Miami and at Houston to go…there’s at least one win there…you’d think. Indy is cruising for a top wild card sport now.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- I’m not sure what’s wrong with Kyler Murray (27-43 for 245 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, 4-74-0). I don’t see anything wrong with him per se, more a general overall slump/drought for the offense.

Perhaps, it’s the lack of DeAndre Hopkins…which, if the case, is pretty sad that the Cardinals have invested in Kirk-Green-Ertz and Kyler can’t do a thing with them.

Perhaps, it’s another later season collapse post-return from injury for Kyler…which happened last season as well? He doesn’t look hindered, though.

We can dissect this in the offseason because right now all the focus is on Week 17 for (most all) FF titles…so how do we play this for Week 17? Well, it’s not great going into Week 17 because Detroit’s defense flustered him Week 15, then Indy’s semi-depleted defense flustered him Week 16. What do we think Dallas’s defense will do to him Week 17…the best of the three defenses I just mentioned? Kyler is likely going to be a lower-end QB1 Week 17…where, if needed, you hope and pray he clicks back into form.

Kyler doesn’t look bad, but he’s not good/great, that’s for sure. The offense just looks slightly off, and more (me reading into it) they just look uninspired. Kyler has a fatal flaw to go with his ton of talent – he’s not a leader of men. He’s not an aggressive/never-say-die type…he’s a whiner/pouter, and he’s been coddled his whole life and is coddled today by his coddling coach. There’s no grit to Kingsbury…there’s no grit to Kyler…thus, there’s no grit to the Arizona Cardinals in times of trouble. They’re failing in clincher games, and on national TV games. Kyler is a finesse player it appears who wilts some under the spotlight.

He’s been great for FF the last two seasons for about 10-13 weeks and then has stumbled to the finish line and been hurt (and that may be the cause of the stumble).

One way or another, it’s something to worry about into the future…and into Week 17. I think he/they can kick it into gear, but I have low confidence in it Week 17…but there is some confidence/hope for it. It does not look terminal…but now it is making me nervous, as a Kyler fan/owner.

My instincts of last (2020) DYNASTY season to trade Kyler for Justin Herbert+ and or Josh Allen+…I thought maybe it was premature seeing Kyler’s performance early in the 2021 season, but now I’m thinking, Dynasty-wise, that your future is probably better with Herbert/Allen. We’ll re-examine in the 2022 offseason.

 -- We now know what the Hopkins-gone WR pecking order for Kyler is…

#1) Christian Kirk (8-54-0/13) is the clear top guy…even though he was a ghost for three quarters.

#2) Antoine Wesley (2-29-1/4) got limited targets, but they were all good targets…end zone/deep ball shots.

#3) A.J. Green (1-33-0/3)…Kyler has virtually no connection/same page look with AJG.

 -- You can stick a fork in the Arizona-DST, they are done. Hot first 10+ weeks and then a collapse at the end. Why? I don’t know. Would have been nice to have J.J. Watt still there, but that’s not a reason for a defense to go from top 3-5 to a collapse. Thumped by the Lions Week 14. Thumped by a besieged Colts O-Line here. Week 17 at Dallas is not favorable.

What about the Indy-DST? They have kinda swapped places with Arizona…the Colts now have the most opportunistic defense out there, but note they lost Darius Leonard right before this game with COVID, but then he went on IR for the rest of the regular season. That is a big hit to the heart and soul of this defense – but facing Las Vegas Week 17, they might be able to be a DST1 hope with such a strong unit overall.

E.J. Speed (9 tackles) is a pretty good fill-in for Leonard, and a decent IDP sleeper the next few weeks.

‍

-- Chase Edmonds (16-56-1, 8-71-0/9) was fine here in lieu of James Conner (DNP)...this is the type game he can have when the Cardinals aren't blowing opponents out like they were the 1st-half of the season. We need him involved in the passing game with Arizona chasing opponents not way up big and just trudging to victory with Conner. Of course, we love Edmonds with Conner out/away...and that may be the case again this week vs. Dallas. This was the Edmonds I was drafting all preseason, but it didn't work out...until Week 16...

 -- Matt Prater (1/3 FG, 1/2 XP) was the #4 scoring kicker in FF the last 3 weeks, and he was helping many run to and through the FF-playoffs, but picked a bad time to forget how to kick…2 missed FGs and a missed XP here on top of all the other Cardinals troubles. Who knows what might have been had Prater hit those early FGs?

Is it a concern for him going into Week 17? Maybe. He’s a veteran, but he also just kinda-sorta cost his team the game here. He’s kicking indoors Week 17, which is good (but that was true here too). He has been good…which is good, but this now recent egg…who knows if it lingers with his confidence? I’m inclined to stick by him, where I have him.

 -- For what it is worth, Budda Baker (12 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFLs, 1 PD) played his arse off…his first ‘Budda-like’ game in a long time this season…for IDP results. Maybe he’s got some upside Week 17 as a spot start DB, if he’s trying to win games on his own as this Arizona defense collapses.

Snap Counts of Interest:

56 = AJG

55 = Kirk

50 = Wesley

05 = Isabella

63 = Alie-Cox

02 = Doyle (hurt)

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

R.C. Fischer

FFM

28 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 16: Jets 26, Jags 21

The Jags win!!!

I mean, they lost the game…in an embarrassing way (failed several goal to go shots with a minute left by Trevor), but they ‘win’ by continuing to get into position to take the #1 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. The Lions (the current #1 pick holders) hurt the Jags’ chances of getting that #1 spot by losing Goff (COVID) the week they would’ve thumped Atlanta with him and that would’ve launched Jacksonville to the #1 pick.

Jacksonville is (2-13) and they won’t win another game this season (at NE, IND remaining)...they are sitting in the #1 pick spot, a half game over Detroit. They pray for the Lions to get another win to really assure the Jags that #1 pick, in case the Jags accidentally win Week 18 if Indy doesn't need that game. I think the Jags will wind up with that top pick, but whether they are picking #1 or #2…it won’t matter, this organization is trash and they’re stuck with Trevor Lawrence mediocrity (not generational) for three more years. If I were a Jaguars fan…I would file divorce papers after what happened this season.

The Jets rise to (4-11) and four wins is probably where they wind up (TB, at BUF ahead) and likely in the top five for the 2022 NFL Draft. A few teams tied with 4 wins right now. The Jets are sitting #4 in the draft...plus #6 (their pick from Seattle/Jamaal Adams).

This game was sloppy and dull…and not worth really talking about team-wise. It is what it is.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- One of the main reasons I watched this game was to scout Dare Ogunbowale (17-57-1, 2-15-0/4)…now taking over for James Robinson (achilles).

Simple scouting on Dare: He was not very good here…he runs stiff/slow, not explosive. His offensive surroundings stink, and he faces a riled-up Patriots defense Week 17. This is not likely to work. He’ll get touches, but they probably won't amount to much…maybe you get lucky with a short TD run (like he got here).

The Jags have little else in the backfield…

Nathan Cottrell (1-3-0) just came up from the practice squad recently and looked more explosive, but that’s not saying much compared to tugboat Dare. And Cottrell didn’t flash any signs either.

Ryquell Armstead is on the roster, but he was on COVID list for this game…and he’s not very good.

B.J. Emmons is the most talented back they have, an interesting practice squad RB, but doubtful they do anything with him. Better to hide him if they want to retain long term. But if he gets elevated my ears will be perked up.

Ogunbowale is the most experienced guy, and so he’ll likely be the main guy with Cottrell getting a couple extra touches to try and impress. And Dare would probably post a 12-40-0 line at NE this week…not a great outlook for his ‘start’.

 -- I was ready to mock the Tavon Austin (6-68-0/7) little outburst, but without Laviska Shenault (COVID), Austin got more looks. If Shenault is out again, it might happen again. However… This little burst was against the Jets. Facing the Patriots in the cold in Week 17, it’s not Austin’s, or more importantly…not Trevor’s kind of atmosphere.

 -- No Jamison Crowder (injury) so, Braxton Berrios (5-37-0/6) was Wilson’s #1 WR look, as we suspected…but it didn’t matter much with a wimpy/OK PPR score…but he did return a kick for a TD to help make him a WR2-3 for the week.

If no Crowder Week 17, Berrios probably has a similar-ish game of PPR WR3 +/- on catch volume.

 -- In the battle of the #1 overall 2021 NFL Draft pick, versus the #2…nothing really happened to change hearts and minds.

Trevor Lawrence (26-39 for 280 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) had his typical allergic reaction to throwing for a TD pass…1 TD pass in his last eight games is a complete and utter embarrassment. And he isn’t playing poorly…he’s just such lukewarm water as a QB.

Zach Wilson (14-22 for 102 yards, 1 TD/ 0 INT) wasn’t much better…typical game for him, running for his life, making some awesome throws and making some forced dumb throws. He had a TD pass to an O-Lineman and a fluky 50+ yard TD run…all of it ‘on accident’ in a sense.

The winner of this Lawrence v. Wilson showdown was…Davis Mills (playing the best of any rookie right now) and Trey Lance (Lance by doing nothing moves up in status vs. them).

 -- Jags rookie IDP Andre Cisco (5 tackles, 1 PD) played one of the worst games of football I’ve seen from a player this year. A HUGE disappointment.  

I was very high on Cisco as a top 3 safety prospect from the 2021 NFL Draft. He was an early 3rd-round NFL Draft pick, might have been a 2nd-rounder had he not gotten hurt (ACL, I think it was) his last year of college play. I argued he might have been the best safety from the 2021 class, possibly…at least we thought he was in that conversation.

Cisco’s main attribute I recall from his scouting is – flying around to the ball and a great tackler/hitter. That’s why when I watched him get the start in this game and then play like a giant puss, I was shocked…and appalled…and I’m done with him for IDP. He’ll have to draw me back in to get back onboard.

He half-assed around the field in a way I’ve seen from a few players the last few years…players trying to play not to get hurt (usually veterans at the end of their careers)…so they conveniently get to the ballcarrier a beat too late allowing someone else to make the tackle. When a ballcarrier gets out in the open field and is racing for the end zone on a long play/run, these ‘fake’ players (like Cisco here) run half speed from a distance to ensure they are nowhere near the ballcarrier or camera shot to get caught. I caught it…and I couldn’t unsee it.

A bunch of lollygagging and arm tackles…until he made a goal line stand one-on-one tackle at the goal line to save the game with under 2 minutes left, forcing NYG to a field goal, allowing the Jags a chance to win with a TD…which they almost did. His goal line tackle was vintage Cisco…his other 58 minutes should get him cut from the NFL.

Now, I understand why Urban Meyer didn’t play him. My apologies for blasting Urban for not playing him. Sorry, Mr. Meyer…for that, but you still were the worst head coach I’ve ever seen in the NFL, regardless…so there’s that.

Cisco falls in my stash rankings and IDP projections this week…to my surprise and disappointment.

Snap Counts of Interest:

48 = Berrios

43 = K Cole

32 = Mims

13 = J Smith

50 = Kroft

22 = Wesco

60 = Ogunbowale

01 = Cottrell

64 = Treadwell

60 = Marvin J

43 = Tavon Austin

08 = Josh Hammond

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

R.C. Fischer

Total Football Advisor

27 December 2021

A look back at the Chargers 2021 season via RC's weekly game recaps/analysis with 2022 notes/comments added to this review...

R.C. Fischer

FFM

25 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Texans 30, Jags 16

Two so-so rookie QBs tried to game-manage their way to a victory, and the one who played better, (Mills) and has played better all season, won. These are the two worst teams in the league, and they just had their Super Bowl…and by ‘winning’ the Texans lose key draft position. The Jags are closing in on the #1 pick…again. Where they will butcher it…again.

Rumors circulating that David Culley is one-and-done as head coach. Likely, I believe. He was brought in to try and sway Deshaun Watson…and it didn’t work. He has an awful team that’s out of control, and it’s his fault…he’s so out of touch, he is so the poster child of a long-time nice guy assistant that has embarrassed himself as a head coach because he’s not head coach material. When I watch him behind the scenes, or mic’d up…it’s high school level stuff…junior high stuff.

Enough about these two embarrassing teams, because it doesn’t really matter who they hire as a coach…it’s the organization.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- All the tape scouting in this was about the two rookie QBs…

We’re 15 weeks into the season and two things are coming to light:

1) Trevor Lawrence (22-38 for 210 yards, 0 TD/0 INT) is no way shape or form a ‘generational QB’.

So, with that – the entirety of professional NFL analysis and scouting is wildly wrong AGAIN. They are so wrong about everything every year, we should just assume they are always wrong/gonna be wrong and thus we should only report out when they get something right – that’s the real unique news, when they call something in advance and they were right.

Football scouting is so ‘What are other people saying…what are the masses saying collectively? Ok, ‘me too then’. The original (and on-going) #MeToo movement is NFL scouting and analysis.

Lawrence isn’t a terrible prospect…he’s just not generational, and I’m not sure he’s even really all that good.

Justin Herbert you could see almost instantly, but for sure you could see it by Week 15 of his rookie season. Ditto Joe Burrow who played half a rookie season was easy to see. Not so with Trevor. I’ve not seen one moment this season where I was like ‘wow’ with anything Lawrence has done. I have seen moments/flashes with Fields, Lance, Wilson…but not Lawrence.

And then #2…

2) Davis Mills (19-30 fo4 209 yards, 2 TDs/1 INT) might be as good as Trevor Lawrence, which is a shockwave to the Jaguars system…not meant as a compliment to the Texans.  

Davis Mills looks like a Mac Jones clone to me, and Lawrence a taller more athletic version of them. All perfectly groomed (read: overcoached, overtrained) competent QBs. I thought Mills would be a bust…I was wrong there…so the mainstream can point to that to make fun of me back at making fun of them for Trevor Lawrence – but, to me, the Lawrence scouting miss was momentous.

Me thinking that Mills was a D-/F grade prospect and he might be a solid ‘C’…I can live with that because I don’t want D or F…or C quarterbacks for my NFL or FF teams.

Here’s a Mac Jones stop and think…if Davis Mills were drafted by Belichick, and he got the same push this year (which he might have if he was drafted there), then Mills would be having a similar year to Jones…or better. I believe. Mills has been a shockingly patient and aggressive and fearless QB…one I didn’t think had any of those NFK-starter traits besides ‘smart’ and ‘mechanically sound’. ‘C’ grade QBs can game manage your NFL team just fine, as rookies, in this new era of player.

I think Mills has been more impressive because he’s showing talent/success with a full-scale disaster around him, from his O-Line to weaponry to coaching staff…where Jones was ‘born’ on the right side of the tracks going to New England/Belichick.

If I were an NFL GM taking over Jacksonville pre-2021 NFL Draft, but knowing what I know today, and not having Urban Meyer coaching my team or sticking his finger in my crack, my QB draft board rankings might look like this:

1a) Zach Wilson – the only pure, obvious arm talent in this draft.

1b) Trey Lance – could be the best total package, or a phenomenal flop because he potentially cannot read NFL defenses or throw with accuracy…but if he develops it, he’ll be ‘generational’ at his size and movement skills, a ‘next Josh Allen’ type.

4) Justin Fields – taking raw talent/skills over worries about his on-and-off field demeanors/attitudes.

4) Davis Mills – the scrappier version of Mac Jones. More arm talent than Jones.

5) Mac Jones – the safe, smart game manager in the Taylor Heinicke vein, but not as scrappy as Heinicke.

6) Trevor Lawrence – he might wind up #3 on this list in the end…he has tools and talents, but I’m afraid he’s been so coddled, so told how great he is, that he’ll never ‘grow’ the way I’d want. The media hype, the media falsehood/dereliction of duty may cost him his career unwittingly. I don’t see Lawrence improving as we go, but that will be blamed on Urban…more coddling, excuses.

Just my knee-jerk reaction re-ranking. I’d have a real debate of Wilson v. Lance, and then I’d trade all the other picks to teams that wanted the other QBs.

The rankings would be different for FF/Dynasty for obvious ‘scoring’ and ‘situational’ reasons. We’ll discuss this offseason, for fun.

 -- This was a perfect spot for James Robinson (18-75-1, 3-13-0/6) to go-off…facing a terrible v. the run defense and the first game sans Urban which they were gonna force-feed Robinson to smooth things over with him…and we got a ‘meh’ output from expectations.

Facing the jets this week looks juicy for JRob…but is it? Is anything juicy for Jacksonville players?

 -- Brandin Cooks (7-102-2/10) is the Texans offense…and will miss Week 16 with COVID. Will anyone pickup the slack?

No one can really replace Cooks, but I’d bet my nickel on Nico Collins (2-14-0/4) as some kind of option – the best relationship Mills has outside of Cooks is with Collins. I thought it would produce this game…it didn’t, but note Collins caught a TD pass in this game but landed just out of bounds.

 -- Houston had so many defenders out that rookie LB, who I like, Garret Wallow (11 tackles, 1 sack) drew the start and responded with 11 tackles and was generally flying around all over. He’s a good player. He has a future. I think he could be a big safety, or a nice inside or outside linebacker.

Wallow and Roy Lopez (COVID) being drafted shows someone in the Texans personnel department must have a CFM subscription – did you notice they also claimed Jalen Camp when JAX cut him? That’s a mighty big coincidence.

I’m not sure using the Texans is a good sales pitch for what CFM can do for you for your Fantasy/Dynasty scouting/planning, but maybe it will 2-3 years from now as they all develop. But get CFM anyway, you’ll love it…and we need the support to fight the mainstream scouting disasters oversold to you/foisted upon you such as generational Trevor Lawrence. The new CFM sign ups will begin early January.

Hey, Cal McNair…call me.

Snap Counts of Interest:

38 = Rex B

12 = DJ-no-K

09 = Royce Freeman

44 = O’Shaughnessy

20 = Hollister

18 = Manhertz

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.

Ross Jacobs

FFM

25 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Eagles 27, Washington 17 

On the first drive of the game, Jalen Hurts was credited with an interception after a short pass hit Dallas Goedert right in the hands, dropped, bounced off the back of his heel, and flew right into a defender's arms. It was a bizarre play and immediately allowed Washington to score and take a 7-0 lead. It's the kind of play that can completely turn around a game and allow a big underdog to pull an upset.

On the next Eagles drive, they were marching down the field and looked ready to score...until Hurts was sacked and fumbled the ball giving Washington good field position. Terry McLaurin caught a deep ball on the next play which led to a Washington FG. 10-0 Washington just minutes into the game off of Eagle turnovers.

After the fumble, the idiotic Eagles fans began to boo Hurts because they have no idea what they are actually watching and instead just listen to the national media telling everyone how awful Hurts is. Shocker: he's not and instead of getting down on himself like he could easily have done, he calmly and decisively carved up the Washington defense the rest of the game.

Unfortunately, the negative plays weren't done just yet. Goedert lost a big play to a hold and dropped a couple of passes, and poorly timed penalties were clearly slowing them down. The Eagles finally managed to right the ship in the late 2nd quarter with a Hurts rushing TD and then a FG to tie the game at 10-10 at halftime.

After halftime the bad luck was gone and the Eagles massacred Washington the rest of the way. The run game started churning like I've rarely seen. The only time I've witnessed holes this large was when the Steelers decided to not play defense against the Vikings a few weeks ago.

Philly was just blowing Washington off the line, and their backs were chewing up ground like nobody's business. It was quickly 20-10 and it looked like a rout was on.

Washington did manage to cut the lead to a mere 3 points in the early 4th quarter after Garrett Gilbert made a fantastic pass across his body while rolling to his left to put Washington in scoring position. It was not enough, however, as Hurts immediately responded with another TD, and the 10 point lead would hold this time.

I didn't come into this rewatch expecting to see much of interest, but I was pleasantly surprised by what I witnessed. Firstly, all credit to Garrett Gilbert. The man was signed off New England's practice squad just 3 days before the game. He barely had any time to learn the playbook, get to know his teammates, or practice, and yet he came in here and played as well as could be expected under the circumstances.

He was relatively calm and collected despite being under a lot of pressure behind a suspect offensive line. He threw the ball well and made good decisions. It was a solid performance and I'd say he deserves a backup job after what he showed here.

Unfortunately for Washington, this loss drops them to 6-8 and their playoff chances, while still technically alive, are remote. They have games remaining against all three divisional opponents, but they'd have to win all three and hope for a few lucky breaks to make it in. I don't foresee that happening. Most likely their season ends at 6 or 7 wins.

What I'm most interested in from this game though is Philly. They've won 4 of their last 5 games and not just winning but blowing teams out. Over the last 5 games they're averaging 27.4 points per game and allowing 18 ppg. If you take it to their last 7 games, they've won 5 of those 7 while scoring 29.3 ppg and allowing 17.6 ppg.

During this stretch the schedule hasn't been very difficult, but they have beaten the pants off the Saints and Broncos, two pretty good teams. They also just barely lost to the emerging Chargers by 3. Their 5 losses early in the season came to the 49'ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bucs, and Raiders. That's a pretty tough group on the whole.

I bring all this up because I think we've been looking at Philly as this kind of lower middle of the pack team, but when you look at their results on paper it's much more impressive than that. The defense is pretty good and the offense is firing on all cylinders with Hurts running the spread option game to perfection behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. That offensive line is the key. They were giving Hurts all day to throw, and you see how deadly he can be when protected.

This is not a bad team by any stretch of the imagination. I'm just trying to figure out how good they are. My gut is telling me they are pretty darn good now, maybe comparable in strength to the Patriots. In the NFC that makes them the 6th or 7th best, but in the AFC they might be the 3rd or 4th best team.

After this win they are up to 7-7 with 3 divisional games remaining. They probably are not catching the Cowboys, but there is a path if they win out and the Cowboys lose their other two games to Washington and the Cardinals.

A loss to the Cardinals would surprise no one, but what if Washington beats Dallas this week while Philly wins? Suddenly the door is open and that week 18 game between the Eagles and Cowboys could tie their records up, and if I'm reading everything right, the tiebreak between them would come down to the 5th option, strength of victory.

It's a small chance but a chance nonetheless.

Even if they can't catch Dallas for the division title, if they win 2 of 3 and the Vikings lose to the Rams and Packers, they'll be in. If they run the table they still lose to Dallas, but they could grab the 6th seed if the 49'ers lose to the Rams. I think there's a very good chance Philly is going to at least make the playoffs as the 7th seed, and this is not a team you want to play in January with this run game churning.

Fantasy Notes

--Well, I guess the answer to whether Dallas Goedert (7-135-0/9) would retain his targeting and effectiveness with Hurts at QB instead of Minshew is a resounding yes.

I was super enthused to see his usage here because he was being schemed open with the defense focused on trying to stop the run game, but he was also physically dominating, at one point going up over the top of a defender and snatching the ball away.

Over the last 4 games, Goedert is averaging 4.75 catches for 75.5 yards and 0.5 TD's per game (15.3 ppg in ppr) and that's including a 1 catch 0 yard stinker against the Giants. I see no reason why this trend won't continue over the final weeks of the season. It only took 4 years, but it seems like we're finally getting the Goedert breakout we dreamed of.

--Miles Sanders (18-131-0) finally had himself a game, but it wasn't anything he was doing. He was running through holes so big they barely qualify as holes. It was more like he was just running into open space with no defender within 10 yards of him at times. I'm not sure you can trust it this week against a very good Giant defense. I think he's still an RB3 because it seems like there's a 60-40 split between he and Jordan Howard, plus Hurts is still siphoning off all the rushing TD's.

--Speaking of Jordan Howard (15-69-0), he's the better back of the two, but he's never going to matter for fantasy unless Sanders gets hurt again. This wasn't just him in running the clock out late though. It was a true two-headed monster grinding away throughout the game. Sanders was definitely the lead and in early, but Howard wasn't far behind. He's the backup, but he's going to play significant snaps. Philly is emulating the Baltimore backfield strategy which means they will try to keep their guys as fresh as possible by splitting snaps.

--Devonta Smith looks as good as ever to me, but right now he's just a bit player in this offense. It's exactly like in Baltimore except worse because Hurts doesn't lean on one guy the way Lamar does. There's simply not enough volume to matter for Smith right now. I like his chances to be a WR2 next year, but his time isn't here yet.

--Antonio Gibson left the game early but returned before long. He's re-aggravated the turf toe injury he's been battling since last year and is now officially questionable for Sunday. He hasn't practiced all week though, so doubtful seems more appropriate.

--If Gibson can't go we can expect a split between Jaret Patterson and Jonathan Williams of some kind. What kind of split I can only guess at, but I don't think you want any part of either guy behind this poor offensive line facing a suddenly very good Dallas defense.

--One of Washington's lone bright spots in this mess is Ricky Seals-Jones. He's played very well in the absence of Logan Thomas this year, and even though he was held back here because Gilbert was so unfamiliar with the offense, he's got TE1 upside in Washington's rematch with Philly in week 17. The Eagles have been notoriously weak to TE's this year and having Heinicke back will be a big boost.

Snap Counts of Interest

35 = Miles Sanders

34 = Jordan Howard

10 = Jaret Patterson

2 = Jonathan Williams

R.C. Fischer

FFM

25 December 2021

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy Game Analysis Week 15: Dolphins 31, Jets 24

I’m not sure how Miami pulled this game out, but they did. The Jets got off to a fast start…clearly the better, more energized team. 10-0 Jets early…17-10 Jets at the half. But then the drops started for NYJ. The Jets protection broke down (6 sacks by MIA) and suddenly the Dolphins took their first lead of the game just into the 4th-quarter, 24-17.

The Jets tied it back up with a pick-six on Tua, but Miami chopped their way back to take the 31-24 lead with 3 minutes left, and the Jets got two possessions in that final span to try and tie/win…but they couldn’t move the against the swarming pass rush of Miami/lack of blocking by the Jets.

Miami wins their 6th in a row (7-7 overall)…(most) all against a who’s who of top of the 2022 NFL Draft/awful NFL teams, but they got the wins and have themselves in the playoff mix. Just when you think their luck will run out…they get the Saints this week with Taysom Hill likely out (along with half their team it seems) with COVID. It’s too big a hill to climb in the AFC wild card standings…Miami needs to win out to have a playoff shot, and then they do have a tiebreaker path to get in over the Chargers if both teams win up with 10 wins. However, we project Miami to finish with an (8-9) record and it not even be a discussion.

The Jets are now (3-11) and have a chance at getting the #1 overall pick with a loss to Jacksonville. Anything is possible, but the Jets should win that game and throw themselves out of the running for the top pick and fall back to a #4-5 pick.

Fantasy Player Notes…

 -- Zach Wilson (13-23 for 170 yards, 0 TDs/0 INTs) really looked good to start this game. He is getting better and better every week. I’m starting to see the flashes of a potential future star. He’s finally checking down/taking what the defense gives him…but after a fast, near-dominant start the protection broke down, the drops started happening, 2nd & long, 3rd & long forced Wilson to have to start taking shots downfield to convert drives…but he couldn’t stay in the pocket long enough to let routes materialize due to the mass pass rush pressure, so the whole thing broke down around him in the 2nd-half.

But even within the fall…I see the Wilson growth – not as erratic, not as risk taking, starting to run the ball smart (he has good speed/feet/is elusive). There are signs flashing here. I wonder if the Week 16 Jags v. Jets game will show an up-close view of just how much more talented Wilson is than the generational fraud Trevor Lawrence. It could happen…but the Jets protection is so bad it may hide it from view just yet.

 -- It’s not helping Wilson that he has lost all his planned starting WRs at various points this season, but Week 16 is the icing on the cake – Davis-Moore-Crowder all expected to be out Week 16. With all of them out, Braxton Berrios (2-10-1, 1-26-0/1) is the WR that Wilson seems to be most comfortable with. He could have a 10+ target game Week 16 against a mediocre Jaguars pass defense.

Keelan Cole (1-9-0/2) will be his other most comfortable option…facing his old team Week 16, which could be some minor ‘revenge’.

Tyler Kroft (2-35-0/2) is his lone healthy TE threat going into Week 16 as well.

Denzel Mims (0-0-0/3) is not a viable option…Mims has caught/connected on 2 of his last 10 targets this season, as his career destruction continues to unfold.

 -- Michael Carter (8-18-0, 1-2-0/2) might miss Week 16 due to COVID…in which case, Tevin Coleman (8-50-0) has some minor RB3 life as the ‘main back’ in lieu of Carter. Ty Johnson was a purposeful inactive this game…that’s how far he’s fallen in the pecking order.

 -- It wasn’t Tua Tagovailoa’s (16-27 for 196 yards, 2 TDs/2 INTs) best game, but when he’s in the groove this offense is annoyingly good…and you can see that Tua can see options and makes quick choices. However, when Tua gets pressured or gets put in 3rd & longs and has to make a play, he becomes a worry…a random event. Tua looks a lot better this season, for sure…but it’s still filled with flaws, but not as flaw-filled as earlier in the season and all last season. He’s gone from awful-to-not bad.

 -- I rewatched this game really focused on Duke Johnson (22-107-2, 1-20-0/1) for obvious reasons…he ran for 100+ yards out of nowhere, he started, and on the live watch he looked pretty impressive in my memory banks. However, watching him more closely here…not that great. Duke is a very limited athlete and wasn’t all that impressive, but the Dolphins stuck with the run game, the Jets are bad at stopping the run, and Myles Gaskin (10-54-0) was just off missing two weeks and they seemed to be bringing him back slower.

I don’t think Johnson has a chance against the Saints Week 16. Gaskin will probably reestablish his lead role, but the Saints run D is a bad matchup for him as well.

 -- No Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker (4-68-1/8) got the decent FF output here…it didn’t look all that great, but Parker got a late short slant TD catch to put himself over the top. Parker is a WR3 more than WR2 with Tua, with Waddle the PPR WR1 back.

 -- The Miami-DST is on a roll, but again…it’s mostly all schedule based. I worried about them vs. Taysom, but vs. Ian Book it will probably be another DST1 week.

Is the Jets-DST an option vs. Jacksonville this week? I mean, better than most Jets-DST weeks but the Jets D is so flawed, and Trevor Lawrence plays it safe to avoid turnovers…it’s something but not obvious. I’d like Atlanta or Chicago as the better hail mary DSTs Week 16.

 -- MY MAN Quincy Williams (11 tackles) has averaged 9.5 total tackler per game, when starting/playing 70%+ of the snaps in a game (10 times) this season. That 9.5 tackle pace, if multiplied over the 14 games played so far this season (not the 10 we’re looking at), Quincy would be pacing as a top 5 in the league in total tackles.

What kind of game do you think he’ll have Week 16 vs. the team that screwed him over/cut him, Jacksonville?

‍

Snap Counts of Interest:

65 = Smythe

45 = Gesicki

41 = Duke J

26 = Gaskin

51 = Crowder

43 = Cole

23 = Mims

19 = Berrios

31 = Carter

21 = Coleman

06 = Walter

**College Football Metrics 2022…new season signups coming in January 2022**

The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!

The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…

Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.